Not sure why such the big move here on the Bucks but I will take the Jazz here.  I also think the Jazz won't be a public team here because they have only covered 1 game in their last 5.  3rd straight road game and good spot to go against the Bucks

Let's go with the Pelicans here tonight to get that revenge from the 1st game of the season.  The Pelicans blew that game in OT and should have won outright.  I like the revenge here and the Raptors are a little overrated right now

This is a weird one here tonight.  This will be the 3rd meeting already between these two teams and the Pistons have won both games.  I think the Pacers here play with some extra energy and blow the Pistons out fairly easily.

This line now is getting a little out hand with Kawhi being out for this game.  The Bucks wouldn’t be favored by double digits if this game was in Milwaukee and that is what they are saying here with this line.  Big over reaction here plus without Kawhi @ Utah the line was 6 

I really Cuse here tonight against Virginia.  This Virginia team is simply getting credit because of the name alone.  They lost so much from the National Title team last season.  Guy, Hunter, Jerome meant obviously so much to this team.  Now they have have tough place to place @ Cute with a new look.  Cuse has signed a loaded class and I think they should actually be favored here

I absolutely love this Ohio St team this season.  They return Wesson who is a stud along with his brother.  The bring in an loaded class and I love Carton their Freshman PG.  They have a ton of size and will be deep.  Cincy lost their coach Cronin to UCLA which is bigger than what most want to believe.  Cumberland and his brother are both studs but I don't think they can carry the load here in this game 

I like this Pitt team here tonight.  Xavier Johnson the sophomore returns here and he is a flat out stud that will carry the load.  Pitt will be a team that surprises some this season in league play.  They return a lot of good youth and yes they struggledlast season but I expect some improvement here with all the guys back

UNC lost everything from last season in Johnson, May, White.  They only return one player who contributed last season.  While they bring in a stud loaded class with Anthony I still think it will take some time to gel.  Notre Dame only lost Harvey so they return a good core and expect them to keep it close 

I'm high on this UNLV team this season with the hire of their new coach TJ.  Sure , they are in a little rebuilding but he has had some key transfers here with the Pac 12 freshman of the year being eligible right away.  Also a sharp shooter JC transfer and Long from Texas will contribute.  They should have their way here for the opener tonight

I just think right now Michigan St is that much better than everyone else plain and simple.  I know there will be a huge big blue following here.  We tend to see the struggles here with Kentucky early before they hit their stride during the season

 I like the Nuggets here to get it done tonight.  The Heat are getting a little too much for love for their start now.  Denver is one of the better teams in the West and should be able to handle their business here.  

I will lay the big number here with Illinois.  This is a team I think can really surprise this season in the Big 10 after Michigan St of Course.  They have some serious talent and should be able to put a large number on Nicholls St.

This will be one of the most public vs sharp plays of the week.  The betting public will love the Packers here laying a short number on the road with a stadium that will mostly be Green Bay fans. I just think the Chargers will start to turn around their season as last weeks win @ Chicago will be a major boost.  I'm also not a firm believer in the Packers and just really like this spot here to go against them.  They have benefited so far from a pretty easy schedule.

I know the public side here for sure, but this is now a must win game for the Browns if they have postseason hopes.  Sure, the case you can make for Denver is that Allen can't play any worse than Flacco but still this is his first start of his career and with a limited offense this will be difficult.  I think the Browns know they need to strike first here as Denver will struggle to play catch up.  I like Baker to have a nice bounce back here 

Odds makers are telling you that these teams are near equal on a neutral field?  There is absolutely no way I believe that at all.  Sure, the Panthers looked bad last week, but that was against an undefeated Niner team who is very good.  The Titans have looked better with Tannenhill no doubt but they have also been extremely lucky and should have lost their last two games, but since they didn't that is helping this line.  Carolina will control this game in a nice bounce back.

Maybe I am way off here, but how can you possibly like the Bears.  What have they shown with Trubisky under the helm for them?  The Bears have lost 3 straight games and I think players are starting to be comes frustrated especially with the offense.  The Eagles have had their struggles for sure, but they had a coming out party last game and I like to back those teams returning home.  Bears aren't a good team and the books are slow to adjust here

I love the Jags here tomorrow in London.  I think they should actually be favored here given the fact that the Texans took a major blow with Watt being done.  The texans defense wasn't exactly lighting things up to begin with and now lose him.  Also the Jags should have won the first meeting being stopped at the half yard line after going for 2.  Also worth noting that the Jags are the most familiar team traveling to London while this will be the Texans first time and that is a huge advantage.

Great spot to back the Blazers here tonight.  Sixers have played two road games and shouldn't have won at Atlanta and snuck by Detroit.  This Portland team is no joke and especially on their home floor.  The difference will be the outside shooting here.

BYU saved their season before the bye week last game as they upset Boise St at a 7 point home dog and I think we get another big effort given the fact this is a rivalry game.  BYU has played a much tougher schedule and now its getting easier for them.  Utah St coming off an ugly performance @ Air Force and I think their defense has been exposed.  I think this line comes down 

The Wizards have lost a couple heart breakers here and I think they answer the bell here tonight.  They are in a good spot here with Towns being out from suspension.  Wizards are just 1-3 but have had several close losses.  I like this spot here for them

I like the Trojans here in this game as they control their own destiny here in the Pac 12 south.  This will now be the third straight game where Oregon has to bring it and I'm not sure they can be trusted.  Throw in the fact I don't trust their coach in close games and especially on the road.  USC will move the ball in the air as we saw Wazzu do last week against them.  I like USC for the upset here

I know Arkansas is nothing special but this is crazy to me that Miss St is laying this number on the road.  Arkansas has at least played two close games even though they have lost both to Texas AM and Kentucky.  Miss St on the other hand has lost 4 straight all by double digits.  I still think Arkansas is hungry for a conference win and there is no doubt they know they can win this one

I will take Washington again here which feels like the exact same thing as a couple weeks ago vs Oregon.  Washington blew that game in the final 6 minutes but now are coming off the bye and I love Coach Peterson in that role here.  I think the love for Utah is now a little high for my liking and they simply don't deserve to be favored in this spot.  

Last week my top play was Michigan and they were an easy winner blowing out ND.  I will fade ND again here as that is their dream crushing loss and I feel its tough to bounce back from here.  Also given the fact that Va Tech is coming off a bye and have quietly turned around their season. It's so tough to know where the Irish heads are at here and laying this many I have to take the Hokies

The Huskers have failed to cover now in 5 straight games and no one wants anything to do with them now and you can't blame them.  I just don't think Frost will let the guys quit on the season as they still want to at least make a bowl game.  Purdue's injuries have really caught up with them and simply they are struggling to move the ball.  After last weeks results it seems like Purdue has gave up.  This has the feeling for a get right game here for the Huskers

I was all over the Jazz last night vs the Clippers as they won and covered easily.  Kawhi was a late scratch but is now playing tonight and the Clippers are in a good bounce back spot even though they played last night.  The Spurs have been fairly lucky so far winning 3 close games.  I like the Clippers in an easy winner here

Alright were going back to the Pelicans here tonight as they are still searching for their first win of the season.  I actually think it comes tonight.  The Pelicans will be motivated following that ugly loss to the Warriors where they got off to a terrible start.  The Nuggest are playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.  I just think with the Pelicans having two road games looming we get max effort here

The verdict is still out on the Clippers right now.  I think this Jazz team is a force to messed with in the Western Conference.  I also think the betting public will want nothing to do with the Jazz as they have only covered 1 game so far.  Also the Clippers with who they have and what they have done the betting public loves them.  Jazz grab an easy win

The Thunder as we all know will be taking a step back this season but they still have some good pieces.  I think since they are 1-3 SU most will write them off here against a better known Portland team who has the bigger names now.  Portland is playing their 4th straight road game.  The Thunder have been very competitive and I believe they get the W here.

I think the wrong team is favored here in this game.  I don't think the Bucks can repeat the run they had last year as they were a surprise team for how good they did.  The win at Houston does nothing for me as the Rockets are still trying to figure things out.  I love this Celtics team and they match up well.  I think they snag the victory

Are the Cavs a good team,  of course not but they are playing well so far.   They have covered both games and are 1-1 SU. Bucks are clearly a public team and this line is inflated.  I think the Bucks are looking ahead to the Celtics on Wednesday 

This Warriors team clearly has some issues here depth is pretty bad.  They are struggling big time on defense here and playing a back to back I think they fall short again.  Pelicans are hungry for their first win and I think they snag it tonight easily

This Hawks team is young and exciting.  I actually believe they will make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference this year.  Sixers could be without Embiid here.  I also think the Hawks are better than the Pistons and the Hawks are catching more points at home than the Pistons were against the Sixers.  Wouldn’t be shocked for the upset

The 6-1 Aztecs are getting way too much love here.  This is a team that barely averages over 20 points per game.  They have been very lucky in several games but that has inflated the number here.  I think UNLV is a buy low team here for the rest of the season.  Their backup QB can sling it and I believe will put points on the board.  The style that SDSU plays will keep UNLV alive in this one 

I really love Michigan here this week.  The perception is still down on Michigan that they can't win a big game with Harbaugh as their coach.  I believe this game is the perfect storm here simply because Notre Dame is extremely overrated.  Last time we saw Notre Dame they struggled big time against a poor USC team.  I saw enough last week at Michigan isn't as bad as what the media thinks which definetly reflects what the public thinks.  Michigan wins this game fairly easily 

I simply think the wrong team is favored here in this game.  Yes, I know Texas has only lost to Oklahoma and LSU and that will be most of the others type of handicap in favor of Texas.  I will say though do they pass the eye test and the simple answer is no.  They survived two lucky scares vs Oklahoma St and Kansas and legit could have lost each of those.  TCU will create some big plays  against the weak Texas secondary.

So Michigan St couldn't have looked any worse than their last two games.  Well those happened to both be on the road and both against the two best teams in the conference in Wisconsin and Ohio St.  Sparty is now off their bye week and will be fresh here and I think in a great spot for the outright upset.  This will now be Penn's st third straight tough game following @ Iowa and Michigan last week.  These are tough stretches and spot you look to play against.  Give me Sparty and the points

I really think this Ohio St team is something special for sure.  The look ahead line here though was around 10 and now it has crossed to over two touchdowns?  Yes, they lost the game, but their season still isn't lost and I don't believe they think that either.  Ohio St hasn't seen a physical team like the Badgers in the trenches.  There won't be as many possessions clearly with the style of play the Badgers will enforce.  I think this is a great bounce back spot and a line over reaction 

Let's noot be fooled by last weeks results.  I had Illinois +31 and yes they beat Wisconsin outright, but they were outplayed in that game.  In fact Illinois has been destroyed in the box scores clearly indicating this team isn't very good.  Purdue has been plagued by injuries, but the fight is still there and that was evident last week @ Iowa.  Purdue won't have any issues moving the ball here and expect a big coming out party for the offense 

Iowa shouldn't be laying double digits here in this game.  With the line of last week against Purdue they are suggesting that the banged up Purdue team is better than NW and I don't believe it.  NW has had Iowa's number over the years and can muck it up.  This is a classic very low scoring feel to it and coming down to the last possession for someone to win.  Will take the 10

Let's not hammer the Lakers too hard for their first game against the Clippers.  Clearly the Clippers are the best team in the league and I feel comfortable saying that after 2 games considering they are missing their 2nd best player.   While the Lakers have some injury issues I think they put on a show here tonight.  I do love this Jazz team going forward but given the spot I will take the Lake Show

I had the Pelicans in their first game @ the Raptors and they should have won SU but lost in OT and in fact didn't cover the game even though they were getting 7.  With what Luka and Porzingis did in their first game I think the betting public will love some Mavs tonight.  I think this line goes up throughout the day 

First top p[lay of the NBA season here. Boston really gagged away the 4th quarter against the Sixers and think they bounce back here.  This line is extremely short here given how much the Raptores have lost.  Also they were very lucky to even beat the Pelicans who were short Zion.  Kemba played horrible and I don't think he does that again.  

Let's take the Warriors here for their home opener.  We all know the betting public will be all over the Clippers here following their win over the Lakers.  I know the Warriors have some injuries with Klay but I still think people are under valuing this Golden St team.  Since Durant has left everyone has wrote them off.  Warriors big effort here tonight 

I have to take the Knicks here.  They are already forecasting them to be a terrible team.  Could they end up being a bottom feeder again, of course.  But the thing is this early in the season we know these teams will fight and be hungry.  The Spurs are no longer a top 5 team in the West and quite frankly shouldn't be laying this many out of the gate

I'm going to take the Celtics here.  I actually love the addition of Kemba here and its because of the young youth.  Kyrie caused problems with these young guys last year in Tatum and Brown.  Kemba has brought them together and I think the Celtics have a loaded team even though Horford is gone as well.  Redick is a lot bigger loss than what most realize for the Sixers.  

This is just way too high here for the Raptors to be laying.  They will have an emotional type of game celebrating the Championship from last season.  We all know the Raptors will be taking a step backwards this season with the loss of Kawhi.  Yes, Zion is out for the game, but the Pelicans have a lot of young pieces I like and I definitely think they can hang in this game.  

I love the Colts here this Sunday coming off their bye week.  I actually think both of these teams are extremely equal and therefore the value lies with the Colts here.  I think the perception here is really with the Texans that they are a lot better team.  Texans defense hasn't traveled very well on the road for the Texans giving up nearly 7 yard per play.  The Colts are also returning some key pieces on defense here which is huge.  I love the Colts here

I really like this value here with the Giants. It looks like they will be returning some key pieces here in Barkley Shepard Engram which is major upgrade for them.  I also think the Cardinals are being over valued here with back to back late seconds win over the Bengals and Falcons which both could have easily been lost.  The Giants are a much improved team with Jones at QB

I was on Ole Miss last week in a win as they covered @ Missouri.  I will back them again here getting 6.5 at home.  This is a competitive team here that did end up scoring 31 against Bama.  I also think this a good spot to go against the Aggies here.  They are coming off a max effort type of game vs Bama and now sit at 3-3 in the conference.  I definitely question their overall motivation here and don't think they should be favored by this much give the situation 

This Tulane team is one of the best kept secrets around this season.  They are vastly improved and it has shown as they have outgained their opponents by 2 yards per play which is huge.  Tulane just keeps winning and covering games as their only loss is to Auburn and they were competitive in that game.  Memphis is more of the household name here but they have also played some easier competition.

I love Oklahoma St here in this game.  This is a rally the team type of game with them coming off the bye week.  They entered the bye week with a sour taste in their mouths dropping a game @ Texas Tech.  Baylor is now ranked and 6-0, but they have survived two close games beating Iowa St in the final seconds and Texas Tech last week in double OT.  Both of those lucky games were at home and now this is finally a tough travel spot for Baylor here.  I actually think this line will go up so grab this number now. 

This Tulsa team is no where near as bad as their 2-4 record.  All 4 of their losses are to more than respectable teams in Michigan St, Oklahoma St, SMU, & Navy.  I think the fact that their record is bad is creating some good value.  Tulsa two weeks ago took SMU who has been a high powered machine down to the wire and should have won that game.  This is a major overreaction here with Cincy and their 5-1 record and 5-1 ATS record.  

I simply believe the wrong team is favored here in this game.  Washington has been a tough team to read this season there is no doubt about it.  Oregon has only played one true road game @ Stanford and they didn't look that great.  I think the perception of both teams is a huge factor here.  Also Oregon lost their stud TE who was also their best receiver in Breeland which is bigger than most would think.  I like the Huskies to win outright

There is no doubt that Louisville is one of the most improved teams in the country.  They will obviously be very motivated for this game with Clemson coming to town and you better believe it that they haven't forgot last years super ugly loss.  Clemson is a very good team taking nothing away from them, but what is the motivation for them here in this early kick?  I think Louisville can get to 17 points or so and if they do they will cover this game easily.

This is the ultimate sandwich/ look ahead spot you can ask for here.  Wisconsin it just steam rolling teams right now and the betting public is most definitely in love with them.  They are coming off another 38-0 shut out over Michigan St but they have their biggest game on deck next weekend with Ohio St.  They are clearly looking forward to that game.  Illnois is a improved team and while they still aren't good, we don't need them to be.  They can score 13 here which I think is possible because the Badgers will be resting their key guys later in the game.  

I will take Denver here as we just need them to win the game.  While I know last weeks game was very mis leading with the Titans as they missed 4 FG's and had a Touchdown called back, this offense is just brutal to watch.  I also think Denver is a lot better than their 1 win shows.  They should have beat the Bears straight up, hung with Green Bay, blew another game against the Jags and last week won an impressive game at Chargers last week.  Denver still hasn't quit and I think this is a must win for them 

I really like the Browns here at this price and feel they should be favored.  This is honestly a perfect storm set up here as the Browns are coming off an ugly showing Monday night on primetime and now the betting public will want nothing to do with them.  I think the Seahawks are extremely overrated here as they were lucky to beat the Rams and in fact they have survived 3 very close games.  The Seahawks have simply done nothing to be favored here in this game.  I love the Browns in this spot

Another great spot here for the Chiefs as Mahomes and company dropped the game to the Colts on primetime as double digit favorites.  Mahomes was banged up but he is playing this week and won't have any issues against this Texans defense.  Yes, the Chiefs defense isn't great either, but we are now getting a discount on them for the first time with them failing to cover in 3 straight games.  The Texans are coming off a game scoring 50+ and the betting public loves to back those type of teams.  

I love the Jaguars also here in this game.  The Saints are simply getting way too much love here now going 3-0 with Teddy under the helm and the betting public will be on them no doubt this week.  I actually think this line will really move closer to game time so grab this line now for the Jags.  The Jags absolutely dominated the Panthers last week but it didn't show on the scoreboard.  This is now the perfect spot to buy the Jags with Minshew who clearly can flat out play. 

I'm still high on this Vikings team and I think the betting public will be on the Eagles as most are remembering the road win at Green Bay, but that Eagles team was a desperate team.  I still think the Vikings are one of the best teams in the NFC and can control the Eagles offense.  The media loves to hate on Cousins and people get scared away when that happens.  The thing is though that the Vikings offense still has a ton of weapons.  I like the Vikings here to control the game and get the win and cover the short number.

Let's grab Wyoming here.  Oddsmakers are saying that SDSU is little better than Wyoming on a neutral field and I simply don't buy that.  This SDSU team really struggled against a bad Colorado St team last week and really didn't pull away considering they were +4 in turnovers and also a huge turnover on downs right before half that would have tied up the game.  Wyoming's only loss was @ Tulsa and we saw that Tulsa team who should have beat the undefeated SMU Mustangs last week. 

This is a huge bounce back here for Iowa.  I had Michigan last week as a top play and they covered against Iowa.  Iowa played awful in that game and Stanley by far had his worst game of the season. Now, its the classic night time kick off in Iowa City and they are known over the years to pull some major upsets.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them win this game and will take the FG + here.  Iowa's defense is by far the best D Penn St has seen.  I think there are a lot of question marks surrounding how good this Penn St is.  Iowa bounces back 

I can't believe this line has floated up this much.  I think the average fan will see that Missouri is 4-1 playing at home and have covered 4 straight.  Missouri has played a very easy schedule so far this season with their best win being South Carolina?  I just think Ole Miss has the better talent.  Ignore the fact they are 3-3, 2 of those came down to final minute and ended up losing both.  Missouri lost their best defensive player which is a huge loss and I think Ole Miss can move the ball and wouldn't be surprised if Ole Miss won outright 

I'm going to take the Aggies here tomorrow.  Yes, I know this isn't a night game at the 12th man, but I still think this is way too many points.  This will by far be Bama's biggest test of the season and I think Jimbo will have his guys ready for this one.  Bama is still very good as we all know but they just aren't the same to me my eyes anyways as years past.  This is simply too many points here and will take Texas AM.  Remember the Aggies were only 15 point dogs @ Clemson and covered granted that was a lucky one but that was on the road as well.  They are catching more here at home against a team who I think is worse than Clemson

I will take Texas here in this match up.  We all know how big this match up especially for Texas here.  I just trust Herman here to have his guys ready.  Oklahoma has really boated raced some bad teams and now Hurts is in the Heisman talk.  There is a lot of love for this Sooner team.  The talent gap is not a difference here at all as both teams get big time recruits.  There will be a lot of points scored here and I definitely think the back door will be open if Texas needs that

This is simply too many points here for Georgia to be laying.  They were extremely lucky to cover last week @ Tennessee if you were watching they needed a fumble 6 late to do that and Tennessee still had their chances.  I also like the fact that South Carolina is coming off their bye week and also the week before that he looked very good against Kentucky as they dominated that game.  This is a ton of points here grab the dog

This is really more of a play against Miss St as I don't feel this team should be laying more than a TD to anyone in conference play.  Miss St is really down this season and their best win is at home vs Kentucky in which they caught them in a good spot.  Also I think after last week this is the game where we see if Tennessee has any fight left as they have Bama on deck so they know this is really a must win game.  I will take the points and trust them here with a big effort. 

Clearly we are having one of those weird situations here where we are seeing the road ranked team as a dog and when we see that is screams to take the home team.  Miami last week lost to Va Tech as a double digit favorite but they absolutely dominated that game.  The difference was though that they were 0-5 in the turnover category.  Miami still has a ton of talent and there is no doubt they will be up for this prime time game

This is a great spot here for Dallas now.  The Cowboys lost on prime time @ the Saints and looked ugly in doing so which now I think the public will love Rodgers as a dog.  Well in fact the Packers have been terrible as a dog and on the road over the years.  Green Bay was exposed last Thursday IMO has this so called better defense didn't do much against the Eagles which were the best offense they have played.  Dallas will be able to control the game with Zeke on the ground keep Rodgers off the field.  Also Adams for GB is a game time decision as well which would be a huge loss

This is simply too many points here in this division game.  The Broncos are now a team the betting public wants nothing to do with.  The Broncos were just 7 point dogs two weeks ago at a better Green Bay team.  So the fact they didn't cover the last two but actually should have and they blew the game last week, all that is creating a big over inflated line.  Chargers are banged up pretty bad right now as well which you have to consider.  I don't think the Broncos have totally quit yet and will show up against this division rival

I think the betting public will be on the Bills here, especially given that they took the Patriots down to the wire last week.  I just think that is a tough spot to follow here now.  The Bills also have big time questions with their QB Allen being questionable.  If he is indeed out and Barkely is the starter this line will sky rocket.  I think it's worth the chance here to grab this short number regardless of what happens.  Allen clearly won't be 100% even if he does go.  Titans were impressive last week @ Atlanta in which they controlled that game from start to finish.  Also worth noting that the Bills wins have came against the Jets, Giants and Bengals not exactly world beaters there

I just think there is a ton of value here with the Steelers catching more than a field goal at home in this division rivalry.  I think we are starting to see the true colors of this Ravens team.  Their two wins are against Miami and Arizona.  Pittsburgh played very well Monday night and I think their defense will hold Lamar in check.  It's also important now that Rudolph has a couple games under his belt now.  I'm not a believer in this Ravens team as they need to prove something on defense.  They are giving up 7.3 yards per play which is horrible. 

This is a big time discount here on the Bengals.  So they were 3.5 point dogs last week suggesting that the Bengals would have been -2 vs the Steelers who are way better than the Cardinals.  Now they are only -3 to the Cardinals?  I think the betting public will be off Cincy because of the ugly Monday night performance.  Well the Cardinals have had back to back no shows at home.  Bengals will have some big plays down field as the Cardinals have gave up plenty so far this season.  Kirk the WR for AZ is out which is Murray's big down field threat

This is a good spot here to go against SMU.  SMU is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS and now the love is getting a little out of hand here.  Tulsa is coming off their bye week and we know they have this game circled.  This game has also been very close the last couple seasons.  Tulsa has also played Michigan St and Oklahoma St so they have played teams better than SMU.  The love is simply getting out of control here for SMU take the points with Tulsa

This seems to be a huge overreaction based on last weeks results.  Baylor was a home dog to Iowa St and won outright, but blew a 20-0 lead in that game in the 4th quarter.  They were also +2 in turnovers and couldn't put them away.  Now they are saying if this game was played @ Baylor they would be a full TD dog.  I'm not buying that considering Kansas St was less than that last week at  a better Oklahoma St team.  Kansas St should at least be -3.5 here in this game.  They won't come out slow this week.

This Auburn team is now the public darling and I think it's time to jump off that ship.  Yes, they have had some good performances and have covered every game so far which of course the public loves. I don't think they should be favored in this game.  The main key here is that Florida now has several key players back from suspension.  I really think their defense will cause some major problems for Nix at QB who has to see the speed that the Florida defense has to offer.  Remember last week Auburn went off favored by -7.5 against Miss St @ home.  Odds makers are saying that Auburn would nearly be favored by 10 over Florida @ Auburn therefore Miss St is better than Florida?  Big time overreaction here take the points

No surprise this line has dropped from the opener as this is sharp money driving it down.  Toledo has had the Broncos number the last couple seasons no doubt about it.  I just believe this year that Western is the better team.  Where they will expose Toledo is on offense.  Toledo has yet to play a powerhouse offense at all and their defensive number are terrible.  Western Mich is averaging nearly 500 yards per game and Toledo is giving up nearly 500 yards per game.  If those both go hand in hand here no doubt WMU will walk away with a victory here

I think this is a discount here on Iowa St and maybe I'm on the wrong side here but this team is 3 points away from being 4-0 and if they were we all know this line would be at least a TD.  Iowa St knows now they simply can't afford any slip ups if they want to play for the Big 12 title and especially this game.  Iowa St started off very sluggish last week and I expect Campbell and company to come out hot here.  Iowa St still has the best or if not the 2nd best offense in the conference.  

I love Michigan here in this game this weekend.  People are simple overreacting here because they looked awful against Wisconsin.  The game of the year line here was Michigan -14.5 and now after 4 games it has been adjusted this much?  I think this is a rally the troops type of game for Big Blue and they put the hurt down.  I'm also not sold on Iowa, this team was extremely lucky to have won the game @ Iowa St and failed to cover in the process.  Michigan will be ready and I think that defense will rattle Stanley the QB who is vastly overrated IMO.  Michigan covers this short number in a must win game fairly easily

This number is simply too big for the Badgers to cover.  Yes, we all know how good they are but it all boils down to motivation here.  What exactly is their motivation here in this game to blowout this Kent St team? The Badgers are coming off back to back good home wins over Michigan and Northwestern and have Sparty on deck as well.  Kent St has been tested by by a couple power 5 teams in @ Arizona St in which they covered and @ Auburn which they failed to by just 3 points at this same number.  Kent St will get a couple scores and that will be all they need in order to cover this number

There is no doubt who the betting public will be all over here and that is Central Florida.  They are a very good team, but this Cincy team is nothing to hang your head on.  In UCF only true road test they lost to a bad Pitt team.  I know UCF has had their way with Cincy the last couple years, but this squad is healthy and they most definitely have this game circled.

The Rams to me are one of if not the most overrated teams in the league following last season and their Super Bowl appearance.  They have been very lucky this season IMO.  First week Carolina was the better team and they got lucky there.  Against the Saints they knocked out Brees which was extremely beneficial.  The Sunday night game @ the Browns that was a coin flip late.  Now their luck finally got up with them getting destroyed by Winston and the Bucs.  I also don't trust Goff to be one of the elite QB's and I think Wilson and company handle their own in this prime time spot and Seattle is a tough spot to play at

I'm going to be a square here I admit it, but this Bears team is no good.  I don't think these teams are equal at all and that is what the line is suggesting here.  The Bears rely so much on that defense which was clearly the case again on Monday night.  The fact they weren't able to pull away and the Skins had a chance to cut the game down to under a TD says a lot about how bad that offense is.  I think the Vikings are one of the most complete teams in the league.  I know the big worry is Cousins, but I trust him a lot more thank Trubisky.  I expect this line to drop big time throughout the week

This is a rally the troops here game for the Broncos before they throw in the towel for the year.  They are 0-3 and clearly desperate and will look to back them here with the motivation edge.  They should have beat the Bears who most are high on so I think they have enough film now on Minshew.  While I love Minshew and what I have seen this, I just think this will be a tall task for him and company here.  Denver was only outgained by the Packers by 2 yards last week and despite being -3 in turnovers they still nearly covered that game and actually should have.  

The Bucs should be 2-1 if it weren't for a missed FG at the end of the game last week.  I also think the Rams are highly overrated right now.  They were lucky week 1 @ Carolina, had the luck of Brees being knocked out week 2 and won in the final seconds against the Browns Sunday night.  I also really like the spot here with the Bucs as the Rams have two big division games on deck.  Simply too many points here with a Tampa team that is clearly improved 

I had the Chiefs last week and got the worst of the number as it dropped throughout the week and they ended up covering the final number at 4.5.  I'm not a firm believer right now in the Lions as they were extremely lucky against the Chargers and also against the Eagles.  Remember week 1 this team tied the Cardinals.  Mahomes is just a whole different animal and I don't see how they can stop this offense.  Also the Chiefs last week should have covered that game as they were up double digits for most of it but of course got back doored.  The Lions defense doesn't present any problems to the Chiefs offense.

I think so far in the 3 games we saw the one outlier game with the Titans and that was week 1 @ the Browns.  The next two games have been ugly for them as Marriota simply isn't the answer at QB anymore.  The Falcons did play a good game against the Colts last week racking up just under 400 total yards.  This team feels due for a major breakout game at home.  With a high scoring team like Atlanta and a challenged offense like the Titans it will be hard for them to keep up.

I'm going to take the Raiders here in this game.  They are coming off a blowout loss @ Minnesota and the previous week vs Kansas City.  Well both of those teams are playoff teams and super bowl contenders.  I'm not going to hold that against them.  Here is where I think Oakland can take control and that is on the ground here.  The Colts defense is giving up some chunks of yards on the ground and with the rookie RB in Jacobs they love to run the ball.  Indy also isn't an explosive offensive team here.  If the Raiders take care of the ball  I wouldn't be surprised if they won outright

Coming Later