Really like the Cowboys here this week.  The Cowboys are off a weird loss blowing double digits in the 4th quarter while the Vikings are off the weird come back win being down double digits.  The Vikings last. week was. extremely fluky and the Vikings defense here will be exposed on the gourd with Pollard.  Cowboys will also bring a ton of pressure here on Kirk.  I also think with the Packers already losing on Thursday that the Vikings are very comfortable in first and can afford losses

I like the Colts here this weekend.  I know last week they beat a bad Raiders team but it's become very clear that Matt Ryan is a massive upgrade over Ehlinger.  It feels like the Colts saved their season last week and they are back to being motivated to get back to 500.  They established the ground game with Taylor and the Eagles struggled against the run Monday night as Washington really controlled the clock.  Eagles got their first loss and I'm curious how they respond.  Colts D is above average and with the other injuries on offense I think Colts are live here 

The betting public will be all over the Bears here.  Over the last 4 weeks they have scored the most points in the league which is very impressive.  I think here on the road is a great spot to fade the Bears here and their defense is really really bad.  They are 28th vs the run and the Falcons are 4th in the league running the ball.  Atlanta with extra time here off the Thursday night game I think they get it done.

The Jets have been great going 4-0 on the road this season.  I also think that win over the Bills prior to the bye week will play a lot in peoples heads here.  The thing is though they were 3 point dogs vs the Patriots at home and lost.  I know it was misleading for sure and a pick 6 got called back but the Pats own the Jets and I see it happening again here.  Jets offense just isn't as explosive without Breece Hall.

I like the Trojans here quite a bit.  I know that UCLA lost last week which was a look ahead spot here but I think UCLA has been pretty lucky in terms of schedule.  Their tough true test on the road at Oregon they lost by double digits.  USC defense is the worry part here but it's not like UCLA has a stout D either.  The better O wins this game and I believe that Lincoln will wanna make a statement in year 1 of this rivalry.

I like Arkansas here in this matchup.  This is just a brutal spot for Ole Miss who's coming off the Bama loss which was an all out effort and a possibly chance to win the SEC West.  This is senior day for Arkansas and they are still hungry to make a bowl game.  This low line is indicating the bad spot here also. 

I like the Gophers here this week.  Look Iowa has won a couple and last week they did easily vs Wisky but their offense is still pathetic averaging 2.4 yards per play last week.  Iowa has had the Gophers number but with the short price here I think its great buy low spot as Minnesota can still win the West as well so they have motivation here also. Gophers are 5-1 ATS at home this season.

Clemson is locked into the ACC title game here so it's really hard to see where their motivation will come from to blow out a team.  Clemson also isn't built that way to build big margins of victory.  Miami is 3-1 ATS on the road this season. I like the fact they are coming off a nice road win last week showing me they are still playing hard.  Miami covers this huge number

We know how brutal of a spot it can be to play at WVU.  I know that Kansas St still have a lot to play for but they were just 2.5 point dogs on the road to Baylor last week and are now laying more than a TD?  This is also senior day here and I think they are motivated to make a bowl game also. WVU is a sneaky home dog remember a few weeks back they almost pulled the upset over TCU.

Crazy reaction in the line here.  Yes, FSU is off to a horrible start 0-3 but Florida just dropped a game to FAU last time.  It's not like they are anything special here.  IN this type of rivalry game with both teams being bad give me the home dog at a big number.

The Michigan St love is outta control here now.  They almost beat Gonzaga and did just. pull the upset on Kentucky.  I think that has them extremely over valued here and in a tough spot with these 3 games being in a row.  Nova is just a team that makes you earn it on both ends.  I want no parts of Sparty in this spot all the sudden laying a big number

The Shockers just aren't the house hold name they once were and I think the coach is on the hot seat this season.  It will be a long year as they lost 4 starters.  This is a Richmond team that if you recall beat Iowa in a 12 5 matchup in the NCAA Tournament last season.  Cheap price for a much better overall team

Warriors haven't won on the road yet.  Well, I think that streak ends tonight here.  Suns first game back off a tough East coast road trip which is always hard first game back.  Warriros will be more motivated here to get one and to get back on track. 

Longhorns here at home tonight is the play.  Zags always load up their schedule early and are off the close win over Michigan St which now does look really well beings hot the Spartans just beat Kentucky.  The talent that Texas has here is just above and beyond here.  I will lay the short numbers in a tough place to play.

These teams haven't met since the playoffs last season.  I think the Hawks want some big time revenge here and I believe they will get it.  Celtics are hot I get it and the betting public won't have any problem laying it here.  Hawks win this game outright.

I like the Thunder here tonight and a great buy low sell high situation.  The Wizards are hot right now but the Thunder are playing great themselves.  They are 2-2 SU their last 4 game but the two losses are to the Bucks in OT and to the Celtics which they covered.  I think they catch the Wiz in a let down spot here tonight and win outright 

Love Duke here tonight.  Both teams lose a lot but I definitely believe it's hard for the Jatyahwks to replace the experience they lost.  Duke always reloads so this is something different for Kansas this season.  I do love that Scheyer is running the show now and also Bill Self is out this game which I do believe matters.  Duke rolls easily

Just a massive talent gap here with these two team meeting tonight.  I really leek Kentucky here and books are titling their hand in large part because of what the Spartans just did covering in a close loss to Gonzaga.  Look, the Zags are good but they aren't like previous years teams.  I also think the travel situation plays a factor here.  Kentucky will man handle the glass and that will be enough to win by double digits. 

Simply too many points for the Niners to be laying.  Yes, they are off the bye and they have a ton of hype around them now with the addition of McCaffrey.  This Niners team does have major potential but a full TD here?  The Chargers were only 3.5 dogs prime time @ Chiefs.  Chargers have a lot of injuries I get it but Herbert will move the ball and the addition this week of Allen back will provide big help.  

I'm gonna lay it here with the Rams who have flat out owned the Cardinals.  I think this team is trending downwards big time.  I know the Rams offense have failed them miserably but the Cardinals dont exactly bring the best D against them.  The Rams are 9-1 SU vs the Card L10. I trust Mcvay here to get it right

I like the Browns here in this spot.  They are off their bye week after playing and beating their divines rival in the Bengals.  Their defense was very impressive in that game and I think they can contain the red hot Miami offense.  The other thing here is that the Dolphins defense has been getting gashed and it showed last week vs the Bears who I had in a winner.  I think the Browns really dominate the possession here and long drives and that spells upset.  Bad matchup here for Miami

I like the Texans here in this game.  They are coming off the mini bye after playing on Thursday night vs the Eagles.  They actually looked pretty impressive in that game only being outgunned by 57 yards and they did cover.  The Giants have by far been one of the most surprised teams but now laying this many?  This isn't the role you want the Giants in.  They were favored in one game and it was against the Bears -3 way early in the season when the Bears were bad and they only won by 8.  The Giants aren't a team that can get margin.

Steelers are off the bye and I like them here.  I think we see a switch in the playbook here for Pickett and Warren to young guns who can be major contributors.  The Saints haven't won a road game period and yet they are favored?  The Steelers have also played a brutal schedule here with their last 5 being the Jets, Bills, Eagles, Bucs & Dolphins.  Wrong team is favored here.

I like the Broncos here this week off their bye week.  Having the extra time off that London win I think was important for this team to look forward to the 2nd half of the season.  The main thing here is that the Titans played the Chiefs close on Monday night and they are getting respect because of that.  Denver can really lock you down on the outside and I think they do the same here with Malik Willis who hasn't shown the ability to throw the ball down field.  Denvers D keeps them in it and eventually Russ makes one play to win it

Odds makers are clearly tilting their hand here in who they believe will win this game tonight.  Bucks are obviously missing key players here and most importantly being Giannis.  Bucks off a hard fought win in OT last game.  Spurs have lost their last two home games but did cover both of them. 

7.5 here is just too many for the Suns to be laying.  First, I dont like the travel spot here with their first road game @ Philly, then Minnesota and now down to Orlando.  Suns are also coming off a pretty big win over the T Wolves.  I think Magic here are perfect to cover as they are 5-1 ATS at home this season. They have covered 3 of their last 4 and are just 2-3 SU their last 5 but none of the 3 losses were by double digits.

Boston is a very good team take nothing away form them.  I just believe this is too many here with a more than respectable Western Conference squad.  Nuggets are hot winning 4 straight and 6 of their last 7.  

Love the spot here for the Bucs.  This is literally a spot of the year type.  They have had extra time now after playing last Thursday and honestly I love tat Brady's divorce is behind him and final.  I think that takes something off his shoulders here.  Rams were in a great spot last week vs the Niners off the bye with revenge and they looked like the same old team that relies heavily on Kupp.  Kupp is also not 100% here and that is a huge factor.  Brady bounces back in a big way this weekend

I will back the Bears this weekend here against the Dolphins.  Yes, I know there is some concern with the Bears making trades to a defense that was already average at best.  You can't ignore how much different this team has looked after their bye week.  Last week they came back to make it a 5 point game with Dallas in the 2nd half and then the weird fumble scoop and score happened and it was pretty deflating.  That was a legit top 10 and probably top 5 defense in the league in Dallas they were moving the ball on.  Dolphins defense was horrible last week giving up 27 vs Lions I the first half.  Dolphins outside on this grass will slow them down a little bit here. I do think both teams score more here than what is expected.  I see a 24-28 type of game. 

The Vikings have been one of the luckiest teams in the league to say the least.  They are 6-1 and escaped one last week as the Cardinals were down 2 getting the ball back then they muffed the punt return setting up a short field for the Vikings to score a TD.  Commanders are riding high here with Heineke at QB.  I really think Washington can move the ball up and down the field on them here vs a very weak secondary.  I think Washington wins this outright.

The Bengals are such a weird team to try and figure out but this feels like the ultimate discount on them here.  Yes, they looked horrible on Monday night vs the Browns.  This just has seems like a great spot here to back Burrow and get it done against a bad team.  The Panthers are in a tough spot I believe here after two huge efforts vs division rivals.  We are getting a discount because they did cover both of those games.  Bengals put it to the Falcons a few weeks back and yes that was with Chase I know, but the Panthers and Walker here did a step back this week.

I love the bounce back spot here for the Raiders.  They were flat out embarrassed last week vs the Saints as they didn't score, heck they barely crossed the 50.  They stayed in Florida this week as I think they know their season is on the line.  There was also the rumor of the flu going. around so if that had any legs to it then I think more of a reason to back them here this week.  Also the jags just continue to find close games to lose every time.  I know the Jags have done the London trip a lot but after that loss I just wonder where their heads are.  

A lot of this IMO is because of last week and what Kansas St did to Oklahoma St.  Texas just has the better athletes here overall plain and simple.  I'm not a believer in the Wildcat team white yet. They need to prove it after that type of win last week to see if they can do it back to back.

Cute is just reeling right now losing back to back games and this line is giving you the indication of that.  Pitt returning back home after back to back losses and are hungry here.  

Wrong team is favored here in this game.  Wazzu only road win was @ Wisky and I just don't think they are that good.  Stanford is nothing special either but shouldn't be a dog here.  This team did just beat ND two weeks ago on the road.  

Oklahoma getting too much credit for winning at Iowa St lat week and they didn't look impressive at all.  Baylor has much better offense and will score against this very bad Sooner defense.  Baylor has won 4 of their last 6 with one being a 3 point loss and the other to Oklahoma St who they were favored over.  I think they should be favored here

I like Purdue here against Iowa.  First Purdue has had Iowa's number and yes I know it's generally in the underdog role but at home here at this short price is hard to pass up.  Iowa blowing out Northwestern last week isn't impressive at all and they are getting. credit because of that.  Iowa's offense is just so bad and can't move the ball.  I think we see Iowa's defense on the field way to long again and they wear down over time 

I will take the Wolves here as they feel undervalued due to a slow start.  This will be the first time the Wolves have been dogs all season and I think they will be motivated vs one the better teams in their conference.  

So the line here last week was Rams -1.5 and now it has flipped.  The Rams are off the bye and they are being downgraded 3 points?  This line move doesn't make sense at all.  49ers have lost back to back games here and one of their most recent wins was against the Rams.  The game was a one possession game in the 4th until a pick six and the Niners were favored by just 2 at home.  Rams off the the bye and I trust Mcvay to dial something. up different here and get it done

I like the Colts here in this game.  So I know that Sam Ehlinger is making his first career start but here is the thing.  Matt Ryan had the most turnovers, most sacks taken his lack thereof mobility is what really hurt the Colts.  Sam brings a whole different dimension to this offense.  I think the team rallies around him here and they get back to controlling the game on the ground.  Good spot here to fade Washington after beating the overrated Packers also.  Colts D will shut them down.

I will take the Cardinals here in this game.  Both teams are coming off the bye in a way with the Vikings who didn't play but the Cardinals had extra time from their Thursday night game.  The Vikings might be 5-1 but boy have they had a lot of luck on their side. They have trailed the Bears and the Lions in the 4th but managed to beat both.  A close win over the Saints doesn't look great and their week 1 win over the Packers doesn't hold much value either.  Cardinals did move the ball better with Hopkins in the lineup and I think they do the same here.

I really like the Dolphins here and I know the betting public will be all over it with me.  The Dolphins didn't look great last week on Sunday night football but that was also first game back with Tua.  They are also undefeated with Tua starting QB this season.  The Dolphins bring the 3rd ranked passing attack while the Lions defense rank dead last in overall defense.  The Lions have 1 win and it's against Washington with Went.  The Lions get a lot of respect but there isn't enough there to back them. I also think since the Dolphins have failed to cover 4 straight games that this plays into it

The Patriots looked like crap in from of everyone Monday night and I think this is a great spot to back them here in what feels like literally a must win game or else they are. so far behind the Pats and Jets if not.  They are starting Mac this week and they have owned the Jets.  I do like this Jets team but losing Breech Hall is a major blow for this offense and the lines dont take into effect how much he meant because he was a rookie.

I like the Lakers here tonight.  The Nuggets are a good team but the big key here tonight is that Westbrook is out tonight and I believe the Lakers will have the motivation here to prove the point without him.  

I know this is a home and home situation.  I backed the Rockets the other night and they beat the Jazz.  I see no reason why they honestly can't beat them again here tonight.  Getting 8 with this team is too many points.

The Hawks have played three home games all against bad teams.  First true road game and I dont believe this is a team you can trust totally to get big margin.  Pistons off an ugly loss last night and that will happen with young players.  I think tonight is just too many points though

I like the Steelers here in this spot vs the Dolphins.  Yes, Tua is back and I think it's a big overreaction here.  I had the Steelers last week and they won outright vs the Bucs.  It doesn't really matter to me if it's Pickett or Trubisky here honestly.  I think Miami will have a pretty conservative gameplan going forward with Tua.  Tomlin in this TD dog under role is something he thrives on.  

I mean this line is outta control here now and the Chargers are my Game Of The Month!  So the Chargers are getting Allen back att WR which they bring in the 7th ranked passing offense and facing literally one of the worst pass defenses and the overall 30th ranked defense.  Chargers didn't look good on Monday night and to me people are writing them off.  Seattle offense won't move the ball against a good defense.  They have been over performing and this is a great time to sell on them

The Raiders are 1-4 and what feels like most are writing their season off.  Both teams are off the bye but I think it came at the right time for the Raiders to regroup here.  This also really feels like a discount here to back them.  The Texans were 5.5 point dogs at home vs the Chargers they were 7 point dogs to the Colts and 10.5 dogs @ Broncos.  I think a great buy low spot.  Raiders really make a statement win here

I like the Colts here this week for several reasons, but first they are getting healthier.  They will be at full strength for the first time this season.  I also love the fact that they have revenge on their mind here from a couple weeks ago vs the Titans.  Colts had two turnovers in their first 3 possessions which put them behind the eight ball.  They dominated the Titans in the boxscore and I see them doing that again but coming away with a win also this time around

I think this is great value here with the Ravens.  They are by far the best 3-3 team in the league.  They had had double digit leads in every single game this season and somehow are just 500.  I think the Browns are walking into a beating this week.  Browns were just dominated by a rookie QB what do you think Lamar will do to them.  You have to remember also that the Ravens were just laying 5.5 on the road to the Giants and now are only 6.5 here vs the Browns?  I think Baltimore finally gets another big lead but end up winning by double digits here

This line is cheap here for the Bengals. The Falcons have covered every game so far and well last week they were catching nearly 6 at home the Niners but now are only 6 on the road vs the Bengals.  I think this is a buy low spot here for the Bengals.  The Falcons secondary will be getting exposed big time here in this game as they rank 31st in the league.  Bengals are quietly playing better also winning 3 of 4. 

UCF offense here is no joke.  They are brining in the 5th ranked overall offense facing a defense ranked 80th overall coming off a 4OT game.  UCF has one loss and it came to a good Louisville squad and was only by 6.  I just believe that UCF is clicking right now coming off 3 double digits wins in a row and they make it 4.

I like the Aggies here in this game.  Both teams are coming off the bye week but South Carolina is a sell high here to me after they beat upset Kentucky on the road.  I think A&M has a ton of motivation here coming off back to back losses.  Better overall coach better team and a cheap price from what this line would have been 3-4 weeks ago we are getting a discount.

This line should be a PK here.  Stanford is getting a ton of respect because they beat ND on the road.  I just think that win honestly doesn't mean much.  ASU after firing Edwards is clearly showing signs of improvement.  They beat Washington two weeks ago and now off the bye I think they feel like they can save their season and make a bowl game here.  Love the spot for the Sun Devils.

I just can't believe that Mizzou is a double digit favorite over anyone in the SEC.  Here is why I am giving Vandy a pass here.  They have 3 SEC losses to Bama, Georgia and Ole Miss.  I mean they were gonna get spanekd regardless in those games.  Does that really show how bad they are though?  I just think that is the narrative and Mizzou isn't much better than them.  Give me the two touchdowns

This is a play against Memphis here as much as it's a play on Tulane.  I just question how much is left in the tank here for Memphis.  They are off back to back all out efforts and heartbreaking losses. IF you recall two weeks ago the lost to Houston was one of the worst you will see all season.  Now last week Memphis lost in 4OT to East Carolina.  I just think they will be tired here and Tulane will take full advantage of a tired team

Im surprised here about this line as I feel both teams are pretty equal.  WVU was favored once so far this season and that was early abasing Houston and they didn't cover.  I believe this is a team you look to fade in this role.  WVU is off a nice win over Baylor and have two losses by 7 with one coming in OT.  Like I said, both teams seem similar so great value with WVU here

Late Add

I like the Suns here tonight from a pure motivation standpoint.  The Mavs knocked out this Suns team to adavance to the Western Conference Finals and mind you during this stretch that the Suns were always bigger home favorites than they are here tonight.  Paul had a leg injury last season and the Mavs will miss Brunson from the get go.  Suns laying a short number with motivation I love them in the home opener tonight. 

I like the young squad here with the Rockets.  Green and Smith along with Porter Jr will be must watch.  Granted, that won't equal many wins but they will be competitive this season especially at big numbers.  The Hawks made headway for their off season move in getting Murrary from the Spurs. It takes a while for this situations to gel and I think 10.5 is too many.