Missouri -9 1.1% Free Play 

This is the worst Oklahoma State defense in over a decade and they are going up against a balanced offenses which is something they have only experienced once this year, and they gave up 48 points to Oklahoma.  If Mike Gundy was not on the other sideline this would be a larger play, but I totally respect what Gundy has done here, and he is 8-4 in bowl games.  With all of that said Oklahoma State is a popular dog, and those type of teams we like to stay away from in bowl season.

Oklahoma State, can be shut down on the ground against a Missouri run defense that ranks 28th, and that's against a very tough schedule with average rushing offenses ranked 42.5 on the season.  Here they face Oklahoma State who ranked 62nd, but are without their top RB and best offensive player Justice Hill.  When this team did not run for 200 yards they went 2-5 on the season.  Oklahoma State's 26th ranked offense is a bit over rated when you factor in they haven't played many good defenses.  Average opponent defense ranking 79.09 in ypp defense.  This spread makes a lot of sense when you start digging, because if Oklahoma State can't run the ball, they will be in third and longs and they rank 73rd at protecting the QB.  They also are 114th in TO margin to go along with the worst defense they have had in a while they also are one of the better teams in terms of TO margin.  They were -8 this year, but in the past few years they were +3, +11, +13. 

Michigan State +1.5 5.5% POD

It has been a rough go of it with these max plays, and we got very unlikely in my opinion and should have covered with Alabama -14, and Iowa State +125, Iowa State covered on the spread not the ML.  Here we are again, and I am going to back the team with the better defense. 

There is value on Michigan State in my opinion.  The discussion will be how bad their offense has been, but they have had a ton of injuries, and coming into this game I would predict that they have some things figured out.  I expect they will get back to running the ball with LJ Scott expected to go along with QB Brian Lewerke.  Oregon's weakness is in run defense.  They ranked 48th in rushing yards per carry, but they faced a very easy schedule with an opponent ypc average of 83rd.  Compare that with MIchigan State's run defense which ranks 2nd facing an opponent ypc average of 49.16.  When held under 4 yards per carry, Oregon is only 1-4 this season with the only win coming against San Jose State.  Michigan State has only allowed 1 team over that mark, Penn State, a game they still won on the road.

Michigan State has faced 5 really good offenses, and they held up in each one against OHio State, Penn State, Purdue, Arizona State, and Nebraska allowing 16.2 ppg on average in those games.  There is no reason to believe they can't do the same here.  I think their offense is undervalued because of the injuries.  The extra time off allowed Michigan State to get healthier, but also work in some of the younger guys with confidence at the skill position.  Watch out for Darrell Stewart, who only had 368 yards receiving on the season to have a big day.  Also Mark D'antoio a far better coach than Cristobal.  He's 5-1 SU & ATS in bowl games over the past 6 years with their only loss to Alabama.  Oregon lost as a big favorite 28-38 to Boise a season ago.

Virginia Tech +7 3.3% play 

This one just touched 7, and I have to grab it.  There are a few things I like about this match-up including the fact that the ACC has actually done poorly against P5 conferences, but have dominated the group of 5 going 18-4 +15.7 ppg, and 12-9-2 ATS, + 2-0 ATS with 2 outright upsets as a dog in the bowl games with Wake Forest & Duke coming up with upsets against G5 conferences.

The public is all over Cincinnati right now as I have two sources at 56 and 58%, but I'm not buying it.  Virginia Tech lost key starters on the defense, a thin group, and left them with a very young defense which clearly showed as DC Bud Foster had a rough year, but with young players that are talented they just need extra reps.  They have had a ton of extra practices, and I think this team is motivated to win this bowl game and finish with a winning record.  I don't see this young Hokies team wanting to be the first team since 1992 to finish with a losing record.  Also, I love backing teams that were 5-6 fighting to get to a bowl game.  Those teams since 2008 are an incredible 42-21 ATS in their bowl games.

Virginia Tech has the edge on offense, and played their best two games to close the year against similar competition to Cincinnati.  They beat a good Virginia team, a team that just dominated an SEC team, and they beat a group of 5 team by 21 points in Marshall.  Both of those teams were top 50 defenses much like Cincinnati and Virginia Tech put up 30+ points.  Justin Fuente is a great offensive mind and is 2-1 in bowl games.  I think it would be hard for Cinci to win this by more than a TD.  Virginia Tech also has edges in special teams and TO Margin, and their fans travel well, and they are 225 miles closer to this stadium. I feel like they will have the crowd edge to go along with all of this.  I won't be shocked if the Hokies pull the upset. 

Alabama -14 5.5% NCAAF POD

Alabama with extra preparation under Nick Saban has been a very profitable ATS situation.  I think Alabama's defense really plays a great game here and give Oklahoma and Kyler Murray issues all day.  I think there is something to be said about Oklahoma getting the Heisman Trophy award to Kyler Murray over Tua, and Oklahoma getting the Joe Moore award for the best offensive line.

The last two times Alabama was a double digit favorite in the playoff they won by 17 and 38 points.  Nick Saban is not going to keep his foot off the gas here knowing how dangerous the Oklahoma offense is.  There will be talks about Alabama's struggles against mobile QB's, but that is old news.  Alabama now prepares against 2 mobile QB's in practice with Jalen Hurts, and Tua, and this is extra time for Alabama to prepare for Murray.  Alabama certainly has the athletes to contain Murry on the outside, and I think the defense dominates this game while Alabama's offense may not punt in this game.

I think the -14 is giving us value here as Alabama did not play great down the stretch, but the time off gives them a chance to regroup offensively.

Notre Dame +11.5 3.3% play 

These are two similar teams with similar strength of schedules that are not great SOS's.  Their opponent YPP differential are both -.225 & -.26.  Notre Dame in my opinion had the slightly tougher schedule with their travel situation which featured 2 west coast trips, and having Michigan to start the year.

The ACC, the conference that Clemson plays in was down this year.  They have looked great in games against the group of 5, but against Power 5 Conferences the ACC is 0-3 with losses of 32, 24, and 16 points.  The two games Clemson stepped out of conference play were against 2 SEC opponents, and they gave up 510 and 600 yards.  Speaking of the SEC, Notre Dame last year beat LSU in their bowl game, and lost to Georgia by only 1 point.  I think this is just far too many points and the line should be around 7-8 points. 

Both teams lean on their run, but will need to lean on their QB play at some point to win this game, and when we look at what each pass defense has done against top 60 passing offenses there is no question Notre Dame played better.  They both played 3 top 60 passing offenses.  Clemson played an average opponent passing offense in ranking 32.6 in QBR in those 3 games, and allowed 378 yards/game and 8 TD and 3 INT's.  Notre Dame comes into this game ranking 24th.  Notre Dame's defense faced 3 top passing offenses ranking on average 22nd, and Notre Dame allowed just 249.6 yards per game, 2 TD and 3 INT's.  So why is Clemson heavily favored?  I think it's perception, and the fact that the last time Notre Dame was in a spot like this they got kicked off the field by Alabama in 2012 losing 42-14.  

These two teams have 4 common opponents i Wake Forest, Syracuse, Florida State, and Pitt.  Clemson was an impressive +275 yards per game, and outscored them 191-46.  While Notre Dame +168 yards per game and outscored them 153-57.  That difference of 107 yards equates to 9 points for Clemson's offense and just 5.57 points for Notre Dame's defense when we factor in yards per point.  Notre Dame also has edges in special teams, and TO margin ranking which should factor in this game.  I know the public seems to be on the Irish, but I think Clemson could be looking past this game a bit to Alabama.  That sounds like crazy, but these kids know they are DD favorites, and want Alabama badly.  They also have player 3 player suspensions leading up to this game.  At the end of the day I think Notre Dame who is being over looked will have a shot to win this game if they play their best game. 

Arkansas State +1 3.3% play 

Arkansas State has been very goo din non conference games, and I trust them more in a spot they are familiar with as Nevada has not been to a bowl since 2013.  Nevada plays in the better conference, I'll admit, but it's very much front loaded with teams like Utah State, Fresno State, and Boise.  After those 3 teams it goes down hill fast in my opinion. Arkansas State lost to some pretty good teams this year including Alabama, Georgia Southern, and App State.  There is no shame there at all.

The big advantage here in my opinion is Nevada an inconsistent team turns the ball over far too much.  Ranking 108th in TO margin compared to Arkansas State who ranks 14th.  I think that will be a difference here, and I think Arkansas State has played the far tougher schedule, and they have a +7.10 % success rate on the season compared to Nevada at 2.7%.  Arkansas State, has a future NFL caliber QB in Justin Hansen who has gotten better year by year.  He finished the year with 27 TD and just 6 INT's. The Sun Belt's top teams have performed very well this bowl season and have gone 3-1 SU, and I expect it to be 4-1 after this game. 

Florida +6 3.3% play & ML at +210 for 1% play 

Florida has all of the motivation here, and it's evident by their NFL prospects playing in this game and not sitting out while Michigan has 4 key guys starting out.  Starting Tackle, RB Higdon, and their two best defensive players in Gary & Bush.  Michigan also has no motivation to beat Florida as they have beaten them the last two years without any issues, while Florida will want to cap their season get to 10 wins by beating a team they have lost to the last two years. 

Dan Mullen is 5-2 in bowl games and I would argue they have the better coach in this one.  The key for Florida is the ability to run the ball and I think they can run the ball.  They ranked 24th in yards per carry this season, and down the stretch Michigan gave up a lot of rushing yards against below average rushing offenses in Rutgers, Indiana, and Ohio State combining for 5.08 yards per carry, and all rushed for over 170 yards.  Florida also has the speed to beat man to man, which is something they will see and Feleipe Franks is a much better QB this year than what Michigan saw to open last season.

Michigan's offense without Higdon will be a difference maker in my opinion, and I think Florida who has a very good defense will give Shea Patterson issues.  Michigan only average 19 points per game against top 25 defenses this year.  I consider Florida a top 25 defense that can get to the QB.  Their weakness is maybe stopping the run, but in a powerful SEC conference it's no surprise that they struggled at times.  The SEC went 9-2 ATS against other Power 5 conferences this year compared to the Big Ten which went 6-6.   I think Florida has a shot to win this game, and if I like them at +6 I have to play the ML as there has been a lot variance this bowl season. 

South Carolina -3.5 1.1% Free Pick 

I don't agree with this line move at all.  I know there are guys sitting out for South Carolina, but I still think this is a team from a far superior conference.  This season the ACC went 4-8 in the regular season vs. other power 5 conferences which includes 3-8-1 ATS and -5.38 points per game.  Add in the bowl season and that number balloons to 3-11-1 ATS  and -9.1 points per game.  The SEC has been the more dominated conference, and South Carolina was picked by many to be the dark horse in the SEC East.

Virginia has had a nice season, but the way they gave away two games lat against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and the fact that this game is just 90 miles away from South Carolina's campus gives me a great value on South Carolina now that the line has dropped below 4 points. This is a South Carolina team that put up 35 points on the Clemson defense. 

Iowa State +125 5.5% POD

Iowa State has played 4 similar offenses this year and have covered each of the 4 against Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State.  Some would say they are built to beat this type of offense, and I would  agree.  They are well coached by Matt Campbell, and are from the much stronger conference.  The PAC 12 went 3-4 -12.4 points per game vs. non-conference P5 opponents while Big 12 was +2.98 points per game, and against G5 conferences the PAC 12 went 8-5 and 6-8 ATS while Big 12 went 10-0, and 7-2-1 ATS outscoring G5 opponents by more than 9 points per game compared to the PAC 12.

The motivation has to be on the side of Iowa State here, when you factor in Washington State felt like they should have been playing in one of the New Years Six Bowl games, and have been concentrating more on recruiting than bowl preparation.  Part of that is Mike Leach's system is much more simple to run, and does not demand extra preparation.  That only makes it easier for opponents to plan for it which is why he has been bad in bowl games 3-8 ATS over his career, and 1-7 ATS over the last 8.

Coaching advantage for this situation goes to Matt Campbell and Iowa State who is very excited to be here.  Campbell is one of the hottest coaches going 36-21-2 ATS over the last 5 years. He was smart enough to see the potential of the team in week 5 when he made a QB switch to Brock Purdy after they average just 17.5 points per game.  With Purdy over the last 8 games they averaged 31.5 points per game and +1.26 yards per play which is a huge #, which is the difference between Alabama's offense and Miami's offense.  I'm not worried about the spread here Iowa State wins outright. 

Purdue +3.5 2.2% play

It's very obvious that Purdue will be the team with more motivation.  Their fanbase and alumn have gobbled up most of the tickets for this game, and with the news of Jeff Brohm remaining at Purdue, instead of going back to Louisville there is a lot to be excited about.  This is an emotional team that has come up big in big moments.  This is a chance to finish the season, beat an SEC team, and finish with a winning record.  Their honorary captain Tyler Trent will be there, and that should only motivate this team more. 

Guz Malzhan, in an effort to safe his own ass fired the offensive coordinator and is taking over the offensive play calling for this game, but they still have issues along the offensive line, and Purdue's defense also, an aggressive style that could give this offensive line issues.  Purdue's offense is the biggest reason I'm backing them.  They should be able to score points and Rondale Moore should have a big game, against an Auburn defense that is 87th in explosive defense, and even worse on standard downs.  Jeff Brohm, is an excellent play caller and I expect that they'll be able to put up points, he's 8-2 ATS as a dog with 5 outright upsets.  Make it #6.

Miami -2.5 2.2% Play 

Both of these teams were in the pre-season Top 10 and have had disappointing seasons.  Miami played Wisconsin in Miami in their bowl game last year and blew a 10 point lead.  I think they want revenge, and Wisconsin doesn't have a QB to bring them back from that type of a deficit.  Wisconsin also a shell of themselves on defense this year, and the offense turns the ball over far too often.  I expect Miami to get a couple turnovers, and they are an emotional team that should really feed into the motivation of revenge.  I do worry about the cold, but 40 degrees in NY this time of year is not bad.  Miami is starting Malik Rosier who gets a second chance and Mark Richt has also been very good in bowl games.  This is an opportunity to also send Manny Diaz the DC for Miami out a winner, and I think the defense plays well for him here.

Duke +3.5 -105 4.5% NCAAF POD

There is a lot to unpack in this game, but I am going to start with bettin value.  Duke lost it's last two games by a combined score of 94-13.  They lost their last game by 30+ and Temple won their last game by 30+, Value on Duke here, who was really unhealthy down the stretch, and I think Daniel Jones their NFL caliber QB was hurt all season long, and the extra time to rest is certainly a good thing for this offense.  They have a key player on the defense in Giles-Harris who is questionable, but I'm betting he plays along with Humphreys who are two key players on the defense.  THey are NFL caliber LB's, and I'm not worried about them sitting out to protect their health for a possible NFL draft.  Humphrey's said - "I don't think that's a Duke thing," Humphreys said Tuesday. "We're going to play every game that we can. We're going to do it because we love the guys around us. I don't think that will happen at Duke."  The defense is healthier, they started the season allowing just 341 yards the first 7 games, and allowed 529 the last 5.  I think that changes here. 

Duke, and coach David Cutcliffe with extra time to prepare has been a different team.  Cutcliffe is 8-2 ATS in his career in bowl games, and at Duke he has eclipsed 31 points each time they have gotten here.  There is concern that Duke's offense won't show up, but in two games against decent opponents Temple gave up 45 points to Boston College, and 52 to Central Florida.  I'm not going to buy in too much to Duke's offensive struggles as injuries to their QB had a big impact on their stats this season.  Temple also has an interim coach Ed Foley, who will not get the job, but I hear is very pumped up for this bowl game.  He was in 2016 as well in a similar situation where Temple won their last 6 games, they won 6 of 7 here, and they lost to Wake Forest, an ACC team as 12 point favorites. Here they are 3.5 point favorites against another ACC team.  The ACC went 18-4 +15.7 points per game and 12-9-2 ATS vs. Group of 5 teams, and as mentioned before Temple did not win or cover in their only game against the ACC this year. 

To put a bow on this game.  Temple needs to force turnovers to win.  They forced 12 in their final 3 games, but Duke has only turned the ball over 17 times all season.  Temple +10 in wins and -5 in losses.  Temple, I think more likely to lose the TO battle as they have turned the ball over in every game this season.  Temple also committing +3.5 more penalties, they are worse in third down offense, defense and red zone offense TD%.  I think the wrong team is favored.  If I hear Giles-Harris is a GO, I'll be back for a ML play. 

TCU +105 4% NCAAF POD

I think the Big 12 a much better conference this year than the PAC 12, as the Big 12 went 14-6 and 11-8-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents compared to the Pac 12 which went 11-9, and 9-11-1 ATS.  Against P5 opponents they were -12.4 points per game, and the Big 12 was +2.98.  Gary Patterson, TCU's head coach 9-7 in bowl games, and has never lost to the PAC 12 with a perfect 6-0 record.  His team played in bowl type games down the stretch and won as a big dog against Oklahoma State sending them to a bowl game.  Teams in that situation are typically good bets in bowl season. TCU also 4-8 ATS, since 2005 teams that don't cover 33% of their games in the regular season but still get to a bowl game are covering 59% ATS in their bowl game.

TCU's season got away from them in a 4 game stretch in which they turned the ball over 13 times, which is over half of their 22 TO's on the season.  IN wins they are +6 TO margin, and -12 in losses.  Cal, actually turned the ball over more than TCU with 26 TO's, and I think TCU can win that again here as they turned the ball over much less down the stretch, and when they moved to Sr. QB Muehlstein, a Sr. with not a lot of talent, but knowledge of this offense they did not turn the ball over much. 

With two elite defense taking the field here you have to look at Cal's offense which averaged just 15 points per game against top 40 defenses.  TCU offense features an explosive player that can take over the game in Jalen Reagor, an impressive player, just go look at the Oklahoma State game.  Nonetheless, Cal is very aware of him, and I expect an experienced HC in Gary Patterson to use him as a decoy, and that could get them some offense.  I really don't understand why Cal is favored.  The defenses are about equal, TCU's offense is just a tad better, and they have the more experienced coach.  TCU also with the tougher schedul facing 9 bowl teams vs. Cal's 5, and have the advantage on the offensive and defensive line despite the injuries they have fought through.  Patterson, wants to finish the season with a winning record and bowl teams who are 6-6 have traditionally done very well in bowl games. 

Minnesota / GA Tech Over 57 3.3% Play 

Two poor defenses are meeting in this game, in a dome in Detroit, the day after Christmas, and I see advantage to the offenses.  First of all Georgia Tech one of the better offenses in the country as they rank 5th in success rate, and Minnesota, playing younger guys down the stretch clearly got better and have two receivers that will give Georgia Tech issues here in Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman.  The total has fallen 4 points since opening, and I think there is enough value on the over.  I also lean Minnesota, but without knowing the 6 suspended players and with a couple of other guys already sitting out for the draft I just can't take Minnesota, but maybe in live action as I do view the Big Ten to be much better than the ACC this year. 

PJ Fleck, is an offensive coach, and he goes up agaisnt a poor defense here. Georgia Tech top 50 in shortest amount of time for opponents to score, and 100th in yards per play, 126th in defensive success rate, 92nd in explosive defense.  There is no category that Georgia Tech's defense is good, so I don't care if this is Paul Johnson's last game I expect Fleck, an offensive minded coach with time to prepare to put up 30+ points here.  Minnesota averaged 37.2 points per game when facing an opponent that is below average defense 69th or worse in yards per play allowed, and Georgia Tech just 2-4 against bowl opponents with an average total points scored of 68.8.  On the flip side Minnesota is playing a top 50 offense, and they've never seen the option and they rank 115th in rushing yards per carry allowed.  Against top 50 opponents they allow on average 33.5 points per game.

Georgia Tech gets to go up against a poor defense, and when they play a poor defense like Minnesota they average 45.5 points per game.  All signs pointing to the over for me here.  Minnesota plays with quick pace and their defense also allows opponents to score quickly, and their defense gives up explosive plays ranking 111th in the country.  Georgia Tech may slow the game down, but the option on turf, and with the speed of Georgia Tech I think Minnesota also gives up 30+ points and maybe 40+.  I expect a shootout here. 

Louisiana Tech +100 4% play

Hawaii had a good year and exceeded expectations and are staying at home to play in the Hawaii Bowl. I don't know how excited they are to be here.  They went 5-2 at home this year, but only played 2 bowl teams and lost both of them big.  I think Louisiana Tech, the team clearly with the better defense has some value in this game.  They are 4-0 in bowl games under Skip Holtz  winning on average 20.5 points per game. 

Louisiana Tech's issue this year was their offense, and that's good news, because they always kick it up a notch come bowl season.  They also rely heavily on the pass, and in this match-up they face Hawaii's 111th pass defense.  Part of the issue for Louisiana Tech this season was that they played 6 TOP 50 pass defenses and 4 in the top 25.  That's not the case here, as they face #111.  Louisiana Tech is 5-0 in games when they don't face a team in the top 50 in pass defense averaging 28.2 points per game.

On the flip side Hawaii throws the ball 60% of the time and they are a very one dimensional offense.  They have lucked out because they have faced weak pass defenses all year.  On average an opponent average pass defense ranking 77.5.  They played only 4 TOP 50 pass defenses, and they went 1-3 while averaging 19.25 points per game, 17 at home.  I think Louisiana Tech and their coaching edge should be able to win this game, and I'm not afraid of the travel spot.  Hawaii just 1-5 vs. bowl teams this year with their lone win coming to end the season against San Diego State who lost 0-27 in their bowl game.

Army -5 1.1% Free Play 

Well known is the fact that Houston has lost their best defensive player Ed Oliver, and best offensive player QB King for this game.  That's factored into the line here, and HOuston fired their defensive coordinator while Army's left for the North Carolina job.  I think the Army DC being lost is not as big of a deal when you factor in how well these kids know the defense with a lot of experience on that side of the ball.  Their strength is defending the run, and that's what Houston will need to do in this game. 

Houston not the same without King, and their defense has suffered from being on the field too much.  They lost 3 of their last 4 games by 10, 14, and 21, and I expect a similar situation here as Army is better on 3rd down, 4th down, and in the Red Zone.  They also should dominate the time of posession as they are #1 in the country compared to Houston's 130th ranking.  Jeff Monken is an excellent coach, and Army travels well to Texas this is their third year heading to Texas for a bowl game where many of their players are from.  They have traveled to Texas 5 times over the last 2 years and average 48.8 points per game when they come here.  I could see them putting a 42 points up in this one as Houston's defense is missing 4 defensive lineman.  Gave up 300 yards rushing to Navy earlier in the year and 36 points. 

Wake Forest +145 5.5% MAX POD

I mentioned on my podcast how inconsistent Wake Forest was this year, and it had a lot to do with injuries as they sent 13 guys to the season ending injury list.  However, Dave Clawson is a great head coach and they were able to win 2 road games in their last 3 games to close the year to get to a bowl game.  I like 6-6 teams who want to finish the season with a winning record in a bowl game, and Wake Forest falls into that.

Memphis is in turmoil with 3 assistant coaches leaving and their star RB Darrell Henderson sitting out to get ready for the NFL draft.  That is all in the number, and Memphis has plenty of other talent at RB position.  However, Wake Forest down the stretch held 3 teams in check on the ground including Pitt who is the #11 ranked rushing team with similar #'s and strength of schedule to Memphis #3 rushing offense.  They held their last 3 opponents to 2.8 ypc, and that's coaching. Dave Clawson 2-0 in bowl games the last two years with Wake Forest, and it's a big accomplishment if they can win a third in a row.

I also like the fact that Wake's offense is a bit under the radar here, and I think they'll score a bunch of points.  The offense really woke up down the stretch when Jamie Newman, dual threat QB took over for injured Sam Hartman, who I felt really limited the offense all year.  Newman closed the year against 3 passing defenses that are better than Memphis and had 8TD's 3 INT"s on the season.  Memphis pass defense allowed UCF's bakcup QB to run for 59 yards and 4TD's while throwing for 348 yards and 2 more TD's as Memphis choked away a big lead in the AAC Championship game.  I don't htink they can recover form that, and to add to all of this Wake Forest has a big edge in special teams.  Wake Forest wins outright. 

FIU / Toledo Under 62 3.3% play 

I'm not really sure why they play this game in the Bahamas every year where the weather is actually opposite of nice.  We will have 25mph winds and rain at game time with gusts of 41mph.  This game features two teams who run more than they throw already, and that will only be increased given that the weakness of both defense is in the run defense, but if each team is expecting the run, it will be hard to get much offense going here in my opinion.  This total is extremely high, because both teams scored a lot of points this season, but I'm not sold on either of them doing it here. 

Marshall / South Florida Under 55 4.4% NCAAF POD

USF lost their offensive coordinator and they have a special teams coach calling the plays against a 19th ranked YPP defense in the country for the first time ever.  USF's offensive key all year long has been establishing the run.  They are 1-4 averaging just 17 points per game when they don't run the ball for more than 148 yards.  Marshal ranks 5th in rushing defense, and has only allowed 1 opponent to run for more than 142 yards.

USF defense on paper is not good and that is what is driving this high total in my opinion, but they have faced a ton of top tier offenses for which Marshall is not.  Marshall's offense has topped 30 points only 4 times.  USF's defense held UCF to 38 points.  This game is played in USF's home state, and I expect they'll be up for this game defensively.  Also, the weather is not looking ideal with 11 mph winds, and rain. 

San Diego State +120 2.5% play 

We have a team from the #2 group of 5 conference playing the the 3rd best team from the worst conference in college football.  The MAC has been one of the worst in bowl games, and we saw it continue last night with Northern Illinois losing by 24 points missing the spread by 21 points.  

These two teams ended the season in very different ways and that is why we are seeing the spread in favor of Ohio, as they won 5 of their last 6 while San Diego State lost 5 of 6, but San Diego State is healthy now, and they have been focused in bowl practice on getting back to their physical style running game, which I think they can employ here against Ohio's run defense which is ranked 68th, and has faced a weak schedule.  San Diego State also very good as a dog 3-1 ATS this year, 0-8 ATS as a favorite so they will be motivated here for sure while Ohio had bigger goals this season, and won a bowl game last year.

Ohio's defense is the main issue here ranking 95th in yards per play against a weak schedule of opponents who rank 81.45 on average in yards per play offense.  On the flip side San Diego State ranks 25th in defense and runs a very different 3-3-5 defense which is hard to prepare for.  I expect Ohio to struggle if they can't run the ball, as San Diego State ranks 4th in run defense, and could force some turnovers if Ohio is not careful against the 3-3-5 defense which can be confusing.

I think we are getting San Diego State at a bargain here.  They have played the tougher schedule, and the Mountain West is off to a great start with Utah State covering big as well as Fresno State. 

Northern Illinois +120 5.5% MAX POD

C-USA teams have not looked good in bowl season thus far 0-2 SU and ATS as North Texas got absolutely destroyed.  Meanwhile, the MAC's Eastern Michigan covered, but should have won the game outright.  The MAC is getting a lot of negative publicity, and add that into the fact that Rod Carey, the head coach of Northern Illinois is 0-5 SU & ATS in bowl games, I think we are getting plenty of value on this play here, but lets dig deeper.

We have two top 25 defenses from a yards per play perspective and it all starts with both teams feature top pass rushes ranked in the top 10.  Both teams run the ball over 57% of the time, and the first priority for both teams will be to establish the running game, and stop the opponent's running game.  Whomever can stop the run has the best shot at winning this game, because both teams are elite at getting to the QB.

I like Northern Illinois rushing defense that has been tested this season ranking 3rd having faced an average opponent rushing offense ranking 68th compared to UAB's 19th ranking with an average opponent rushing offense ranking 92nd.  Northern Illinois should have more success stopping the run in this one, and that will open things up for Sutton Smith to continue to feast on opposing QB's.  The All-American has 15 sacks and just finds ways to get to the QB, and that's bad news for a UAB team that has thrown 15 interceptions this year.

Northern Illinois poor offensive performances have been due to injury, and strength of schedule.  They have faced 3 power 5 school teams and BYU.  They are one of the few teams that did not schedule an FCS opponent, and they have faced 10 total bowl teams compared to UAB who has faced just 5.  Northern Illinois also has the TO margin advantage, special teams and UAB lost 41-6 to a MAC team a season ago. 

MTSU +7 5.5% NCAAF POD

Conference USA runner up Middle Tennessee vs. Sunbelt Champion App State.  I voted Sunbelt as the better overall conference, but I feel like MTSU has more motivation here when you factor in Father and Son QB & Coach will be playing in their last game together for Middle Tennessee.  The Stockstill’s have had a solid 4 year run, and they go up against another Sun Belt team in a bowl game. Last year they beat Arkansas State. App State loses their head coach to Louisville and DC- Mark Ivey will take over here.

Middle Tennessee has put up pretty good offensive and defensive numbers this year despite having played 3 teams from the best conference in the nation in the SEC.  Strength of schedule clearly on the side of Middle Tennessee. When you look at these conferences they are pretty close, but CUSA challenges themselves more with 23 games this season vs. the Power 5 and 11 vs. the SEC where they went 7-4 ATS.

The Sun Belt on the other hand just 12 games vs. the Power 5 and went 3-9 ATS.  Yet this is clearly the best team from the Sun Belt, but I think losing your head coach Scott Satterfeld is a big lose, he was the coach here for 5 years, and all of these players played for him now suddenly he’s gone.  The team just won the Sun Belt Championship game which was the inaugural game. They beat a team that was 116th in yards per play allowed, and a team that could not stop the run ranking 99th. MIddle Tennessee comes into this game with stronger #s and match up better in my opinion.

App State’s defensive weakness is against the pass, and that’s what MIddle Tennessee does best with Stockstill at QB.  On the flip side App State’s strength of running the ball has gotten weaker over the last few weeks. Really ever since they lost Jalin Moore the team hasn’t been the same offensively.  They will go up against a 60th ranked defense that is better than that ranking when you factor in they have faced 3 SEC opponents. THe last two weeks they faced UAB, a team that runs the ball over 60% of the time, so I think they’ll be ready for this game. This game will be in New Orleans inside so weather won’t impact this game at all and I like for MIddle Tennessee to have a shot to win the game outright.

Eastern Michigan +3.5 -120 4% Play

You can find Eastern Michigan at +100 or +105 at +3, so buying the half point here is worth it to me with a team that typically plays in a lot of close games.  The public is heavily on Georgia Southern from the Sun Belt, and I don't understand exactly why.  While the MAC Conference has not done well in recent years, just 1-4 last year in bowl games I think that gives us some value.  Eastern Michigan is a team that played very well out of conference play beating Purdue on the road, something Ohio State could not do, playing right with San Diego State on the road in which was their third road game in a row.  This team is very excited to be here, and plays with a lot of passion and heart, and I expect that their preparation had just a little more effort than Georgia Southern, the favorite.

Georgia Southern will run the option, and that typically gives teams issues.  However, we saw one team with a worse run defense than Eastern Michigan - Louisiana Monroe ranks 79th to Eastern Michigan's 69th hold Georgia Southern to 138 yards and 3 yards per carry.  Why?  Monroe had an extra week to prepare.  Here we have Eastern Michigan who already saw the option and plenty of time to prepare.  Eastern Michigan lost one game by more than a TD and yes that was against Army who also runs the option.  However, Eastern Michigan held Army to just 4 yards per carry their second fewest yards per carry on the season.  The issue was they could not stop Army on third down.  What differs between Army and Georgia's Southern's offense is Army has a lot more experience running it to perfection and they are much more efficient.  Army one of the best in the country converting third downs at a 55% clip compared to Georgia Southern's 39% third down clip.  Eastern Michigan one of the better 3rd down defenses holding opponents to 37%, and in the red zone their defense is excellent holding opponents to 47% TD's.  It's also not like Georgia Southern has been consistent running the ball they have struggled in other games against Troy, who does have a good run defense, but also against Texas State who ranks 85th in run defense.  So 2 poor run defenses have held Georgia Southern in check.

Georgia Southern also relied greatly on turnovers, and lead the nation at +22, as they did not have a single game with a negative TO margin, and only one at even.  I think that can change having not played in a few weeks, getting used to hard hitting football I would not be shocked if Eastern MIchigan forced some fumbles here.  Eastern Michigan 9th in TO margin, so it should be a good match-up there.  This game will have limited possessions with two run first teams and the total is a very low 45 and has dropped from the 47.5.  Take the dog in bowl games where the total is less than 55 and you would cover the spread 55% of the time.  Another winning trend is fading the % of bets on a side, and you have to do it late when public money comes in, and as of this morning we have well over 60% of the money coming in on Georgia Southern, despite not getting the best of the line move which has moved more than 5 points.  Taking Eastern Michigan is well worth the value here. 

Arizona State / Fresno State Under 54 3.3% play

Pac 12 Arizona State facing off against Fresno State, the Mountain West Champion.  This is an interesting game between Herman Edwards, making his bowl debut and Jeff Tedford, 6-3 SU in bowl games.  Mountain West just 3-6 and 4-5 ATS vs. PAC 12 this year -12 points per game and that’s with Fresno beating UCLA 38-14 earlier this season, and Arizona State losing 21-28 to San Diego State.  

Arizona State’s best offensive player a top 15 pick in NFL Draft WR N’Keal Harry sitting out for the NFL.  Weather looks decent, but I actually think with two run first teams this game should go under the total. You have two of the better defenses from their respective conferences, both don’t give up a lot of big plays ranking 23rd and 7th in explosive defense.  We have seen Arizona State struggle putting up just 21 points vs. a top MWC defense in San Diego State, WR Harry had 9 catches for 86 yards and a TD in that game. Fresno State a much better defense ranking 9th in the nation compared to SD State’s 66th ranking. In the 9 games these two conferences have played each other the average total was 53 points.  With 2 decent defenses

Tulane / Louisiana Over 61 3.3% play 

I have flip flopped on the lean on the side so I'll be playing the total in this game which I have a great feeling for.  Tulane has been far too inconsistent this year, but they have put up points in bunches at time, and fired their offensive coordinator and hired Louisiana's old OC for this one.  So we know there will be a concentration on offense for this game, and new plays come into play with an offensive coordinator making Louisiana really not know what to prepare for.  Louisiana's defense is already one of the worst in the country ranking 116th in yards pe rplay, 99th vs. the run, and 115th vs. the pass, 96th in success rate defense.  I think there is a good reason why Tulane is the favorite here coming from the better conference, and I think they could score into the 30's. 

For Lafayette, their offense has been explosive, and balanced.  They rank 13th in yards per play, and that is elite when you consider they have played 5 elite top 25 defenses including Alabama, App State 2x, and Miss State, all in the top 10.  Tulane is pretty good on defense, but they are more in the middle, and unless you are an elite defense Lafayette gets their points.  In fact in games against top 25 defenses they average just 15.2 points per game, but in their other games against defenses not in the top 25 they averaged 43.3 points per game.  They also are an explosive offense ranking 12th in explosive plays, and are going up against Tulane who is 114th in explosive defense.  I see a lot of points in this one. 

Navy +7 5.5% NCAAF POD 

This is a lot of points in a game that will have limited possessions due to the style of play that these two will face off with.  Navy has played a lot better down the stretch of the season, and this game is always tight, because these teams know how to defend the option.  Navy looks to avenge losing the last two years and they haven't covered the spread in 5 years.  However, this is a large shift in this series and I don't believe it is justified.  Army regularly the dog now a big favorite, and they won outright the last 2 years by 1 point, and 4 points, and have been an average dog of 11.8 points the last 5 years, and now they are a 7 point favorite.  I don't think their is a talent gap that large, and Navy plays a tougher schedule.  Army usually playing well in the dog role is now a TD favorite, and I just don't buy it.  I've been very impressed with what Jeff Monken has done here, and I have bet on Army on the ML the last few years, but this year I'm going with the value side and backing a Navy team that has played a lot better. 

Ohio State -14 3.3% play 

Northwestern has played over their head all year long, and I'm going to grab this number now before it gets to 14.5, I can always play it back at +14.5 or higher if I feel Northwestern is the right side as I think it will go there.  Ohio State has every reason to blow out Northwestern, and I think they can.  We have seen some pretty lopsided games in the Big Ten Championship before especially when a team is not guaranteed a spot in the college football playoff, and need to impress.  The last time this happened Ohio State beat Wisconsin 59-0. I think Ohio State figured some things out on both sides of the ball that showed up in their last game.  Right now they are competing with Oklahoma for that final spot, and they need to be more impressive.  If Texas for some reason wins earlier against Oklahoma, I will look to buy back at +14.5 or higher. 

Fresno State +120 5.5% MAX POD

I bet on Boise the last time out, and a big reason why was Fresno State had short week of rest and was traveling Saturday to Friday.  They just played in a game where their defense saw 76 plays, and UNLV ran 44 times against them.  They got off to a 17-3 lead, but a lot of things happened after that which just should not happen in the Championship game.  Rypien completed 80% of his passes, ( only 1 other team completed over 60% against Fresno), and Alex Mattison ran 30 times for 144 yards, and Fresno gave up 179 yards.  I believe Fresno State just got worn out in that game, and going into this game I think the opposite is true. 

Fresno still has to travel, but they have the regular full week, and they come off a game where their defense only saw 65 plays and 22 rushes, so they are definitely healthy. Boise State on the other hand is banged up right now after they had to fight for their lives to get to this game against Utah State.  Alex Mattison rushed the ball 37 times, and there is just no way he's going to be as effective this time around which will hurt Rypien's ability to throw the ball late.  This is the 4th match-up between tehse two teams and last year's match-up the trenches were pretty even with Boise being -28 yards rushing in last year's Championship game.  I think we could see something similar here, but with Fresno pulling the upset. 

Another thing that was strange in that game was the fact that Fresno was -9.4 yards in field position.  They have one of the best punters, and Boise has one of the worst so I expect that to also turn around in this game.  At the end of the day there were no red flags for Fresno and why they lost that game other than they just got tired at the end of the game.  Their QB play was just fine as Marcus McMaryion threw for 283 yards 1 TD and 0 INT's, completing 68.6% of his passes, and goes up against Boise's 90th rated pass defense here.  Fresno State has the advantage in teh red zone as well as they hold conference opponents to 30% TD percentage and held Boise to 50% in the first game, while they were 2-2.  Add all of this up and I like Fresno to pull the upset, they are +1.5 dog right now, but the they were a -3 point favorite just 3 weeks ago.  

UCF -3 3.3% play

I like the bump we are going to get from UCF’s team here with a ton of play for.  Not only are they going to be coming out to play for their fallen QB Milton, but they are playing for a second undefeated season in a row.  Everyone is saying Milton is worth 7 points, but I’m not buying that and I think there is a ton of value here on UCF at -3. Darriel Mack is not the passer that Milton was there is no question, but he’s a much better runner, and gives this UCF offense something different for Memphis to defend.  Mack is extremely athletic and has 281 yards rushing on only 40 carries. That’s over 7 yards per carry. Memphis won’t have a passing game either so all this talk about Mack not being able to throw very well does not worry me, because UCF’s pass defense and pass rush is so much better than Memphis that it will even out.

Memphis rushing offense and defense completely different in their home/away splits.  They average 1.88 yards per carry less on the road, and allow .97 yards per carry more.  Last time I checked UCF actually has the better rushing team here ranking 8th, but faced a tougher schedule now they add in a dynamic running QB, and Memphis could be in a bit of trouble here on the road.

Home field advantage is another great equalizer and I think the fans are going to be jacked up for this one.  When we look at the strength of schedule UCF has faced an average defense ranking 65.2 in ypp, compared to Memphis at 85.63.  THeir defenses are also pretty similar but again UCF faced an average ypp offense 60.4, compared to MEmphis 73.09 rank. Another thing many are not talking about is UCF ranks 2nd in TO margin, and it’s a big part of their defense compare that with Memphis who ranks 59th.  There is also a special teams advantage here as UCF ranks 62nd compared to Memphis 112th rank and finally red zone defense. Memphis allowing over 70% red zone trips to turn into TD’s, while UCF is allowing 50%, UCF also not giving up a ton of explosive plays ranking 53rd in explosive defense compared to Memphis ranking 86th.

Stanford / Cal Under 47 3.3% play  

Texas +8 4.4% Play 

Texas brought in David Beaty (KANSAS HC) to help with Oklahoma tendencies, I can only view this as a positive, because if Texas can pick up on anything defensively to help them get off the field that will help their chances of covering this game.  Now, a lot has been made of the match up being decided by 7 or less points the last six meetings and Tom Herman's success as a dog, but that's not why I'm betting on Texas.  Sharps pointing to Oklahoma, are stating that Oklahoma dominated the box score int he first matchup, and while that is true it really is misleading, because Texas doesn't have an explosive offense, and that's totally fine they were still 50% successful on offensive plays, and it's actually better that they run a methodical offense, that dominates time of posession.  They rank 20th in TOP, and had a +8 minute advantage in the first game.  They were also up by 21 points in the 4th quarter before Oklahoma came back in a frenzy.

I think Texas has a lot to learn from their last match up and the oddsmakers are saying not much has changed and I agree.  The one thing that did change was the defensive coordinator for Oklahoma was fired, and Rufin McNeil has taken over the last 6 games.  they got an initial jump but against two bad offenses in TCU & Kansas State.  Over the last 4 games the defense has been desperate to try to even switch up their defensive formation to a 4-3 against Kansas, and they gave up 40 points and over 340 yards rushing.  I just don't think this team has the playmakers, and they don't match-up well against Texas tall receivers, and the physical play that Texas brings in the running game is another advantage for Texas here.

Texas is getting healthier, and Oklahoma might be without two starting CB's here who are questionable for the game.  I do question Ehlinger's arm health and that would be my one and only concern about this game.  I think Texas will hold onto the ball and limit the plays Oklahoma has, but at the end of the day they are built for this match-up.  It has been the reason they have given Oklahoma issues over the years, and I don't see anything changing in this game as Texas will be in the game at the end with a chance to win.  

App State / UL Lafayette Under 58 3.3% play 

Northern Illinois +3.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

Northern Illinois & Buffalo have 6 common conference opponents, and Northern Illinois is +74 yards per game, while Buffalo is only +24 yards in those games, yet Buffalo is a favorite over a field goal, because Northern Illinois dropped their last two games that were meaningless considering they had this trip locked up 3 weeks ago.  Northern Illinois also comes from the stronger West Division in this conference, and has a lot of experience getting to Detroit.  Buffalo has been here once, 10 years ago.  In non-conference play Northern Illinois by far faced a tougher schedule with Iowa, Utah, BYU, and Florida State while Buffalo had Temple (okay), Delaware State, Army (got blown out), and Rutgers.

Buffalo is led by their QB Tyree Jackson, who has been a shell of himself over the past three games, he passed for 126 yards/game, 49% completion percentage, with only 2 TD's and 3 INT's.  The passing defenses he's faced over those three games rank 102nd, 88th, and 92nd.  The "alleged" NFL talent with the big arm has not impressed me down the stretch, and Northern Illinois has the 30th ranked pass defense, with one of the best pass rushers and they rank 26th at getting to the QB.  Ohio, who ranked 69th vs. the run, and 88th vs. the pass, and 55th in sack rate held Buffalo to 17 points.  I expect Northern Illinois to make this their type of game.

Northern Illinois will play great defense, special teams, and control the line of scrimmage.  Northern Illinois has a running QB in Marcus Childers who had 456 rushing yards in conference play.  Buffalo's rush defense was really challenged by Ohio giving up over 400 yards, and could not defend their QB Nathan Rourke who had 77 yards rushing.  When Northern Illinois played Ohio they controlled the line of scrimmage holding Ohio to 46 yards, as they ran for 255.  I expect Northern Illinois with the better defense to do the same in this game, and the fact that they are dogs on a neutral field has me excited to be betting this one.  Northern Illinois also the better special teams here ranking 43rd. compared to Buffalo's 90th ranking.

BYU +11.5 2.2% play 

Utah has the PAC 12 Championship game next, and again are playing without 84% of their offense with Moss, and Huntley out for the season.  It was evident in their last game against Colorado as they struggled on offense especially in the first half as it was 7-7 before the cruised to a 30-7 victory.  BYU's offense is better, and their defense is better than Colorado.

The Holy War is a  huge rivalry game that has been decided by 7 points or less in 17 of the last 22 meetings. Utah really benefited from +3 TO margin, and special teams play last week.  BYU actually has a very good special teams unit ranking 23rd compared to Colorado last week ranking 120th. 

BYU ranks 30th defending the run, and Colorado just got done holding Utah to 169 yards last week, I'm expecting BYU who has faced tougher competition than Colorado to hold Utah's running game in check, and their special teams will keep this game close.  When Utah is held under 180 yards they are just 6-10 the last 3 years, and if you put this spread on those games they would be just 3-13 ATS. So far it doesn't look like Utah misses Moss and Huntley, but I think it finally shows here in a close battle, as Utah looks to the PAC 12 Championship game. 

TCU +200 3.5% ML Dog play

You really have to question what Oklahoma State has left here?  They got to their 6th win of the season last week in dramatic fashion after coming back from a double digit deficit against West Virginia at home, and now they are traveling for the 3rd time in 4 weeks.  They have also been in high tension games the last 4 games.  They won against Texas by 3, lost to Baylor by 4, lost to Oklahoma by 1, beat West Virginia by 4, and now they are on the road against TCU, a team fighting for their 6th win to get to a bowl game.  I think we are getting a ton of value here, based on Oklahoma State's previous two teams contending with the top tier teams in the Big 12, but I expect a let down here on the road against TCU, the more hungry team. 

I also like the fact that TCU is starting a Sr. QB in Grayson Muehlstein, and ironically I think it will be an upgrade especially if he takes care of the ball.  Muehlstein was the 3rd string QB, but he knows this offense, and the coaching staff has complete trust in him.  He'll be helped by a running game that should get going here against Oklahoma State's 77th ranked run defense, they allow 5.83 yards per carry on the road. For Oklahoma State, this is by far the best defense they have faced on the road.  This is a team that has had some bad performances on the road losing to Baylor and Kansas State. TCU wins the turnover battle, and wins the game outright!

Texas AM -3 -115 3.5% PLAY 

This is a good match-up for the Aggies who are 6-0 ATS at home this season. They are the unranked team facing a top 10 team, but are favorites?  I'll take the Aggies who have played the tougher schedule, and the better match-up.  The weakness of A&M is their secondary, but LSU prefers to run first, and A&M has arguably the best run stop unit of any team in the country.  LSU only averages 3.61 yards per carry ont he road, and I predict they'll be held under 100 yards in this game.  That means Joe Burrow has to win the game, and his team is just not protecting him well enough to take advantage of the Aggies pass defense as they rank 91st, and go up against A&M who ranks 11th at getting to the QB.  Since A&M will create plenty of 3rd and 8's this is a major issue in this game. 

On the flip side the Aggies have a very balanced offense, they can run and they can pass, and I think they will have success at home at night and LSU's defense is really banged up right now and will be without 3 starters in the secondary.  LSU's defense has been run on particularly on the road, so I'm betting we see that again, which should only help out Kellen Mond when he decides to throw the ball. 

Tennessee +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I’ll take the better defense that has had success on the road in conference play, and has dominated this series 28-1 from 1983-2011, but Vanderbilt has won 4 of the past 6.  The winner gets to a bowl game, and Tennessee has nothing to lose in this game in the new Jeremy Pruitt era, while Derek Mason is on the hot seat for Vanderbilt.

Tennessee’s defense is holding SEC foes 20 yards below their season average while Vanderbilt is letting those foes 73 yards above their season average.  These two teams have 5 of 7 common opponents in the SEC. Tennessee clearly the more difficult schedule with games against Alabama, and Auburn while Vanderbilt had Arkansas and Ole Miss.  In the 5 common opponents Tennessee did better in net yardage in 4 of the 5 games, and than Vanderbilt did, and the one they did not was the MIssouri game which happened just last week, but Tennessee lost their QB and best WR very early in that game and both are probable for this game.  Vanderbilt last week beat Ole Miss, one of the worst defenses in the SEC held them to 378 yards as they were out gained by 191 yards at home.

This is a big game for Tenn and Jeremy Pruit to regain control of this rivalry, and I think we are getting hidden value here based off last week’s results alone.  The better, defense, has already played close at South Carolina, and beat Auburn on the road, look for Tennessee to pull the outright upset here.

Alabama -24 2.2% play

This might be the worst offense for Auburn in nearly a decade, and it might be the best offense Alabama has had.  Alabama scored just 14 points in last year's Iron Bowl loss, and I think they'll look to get revenge on their in state rival.  Alabama over the previous 9 years averaged 35.77 points per game, and their lowest point total was 14.  I think Alabama's defense holds Auburn to 7 points or less as the defense has been absolutely dominant the second half of the year, and rank 22nd vs. the run, which is something Auburn must to in order to stay in this game.  Well, Auburn ranks 86th in rushing yards per carry on the year, and their offensive line can not protect Stidham.  Alabama 9th vs. the run, and 6th at getting to the QB.  Auburn lost by 17 at Georgia, but it could have been more as they could not stop the run late.  Alabama I think runs away with this game in the third quarter after getting a big lead in the first half. 

Marshall -3 4.4% play

Marshall vs. FIU, FIU is a 1 point dog while Marshall can’t get into the C-USA Championship game even with a win here, and MTSU loss, which would create a 3 way tie in the East.  You have to think they will take it out on FIU and try to win this game. I feel like FIU has been one of the luckier teams in the nation. They barely got by Charlotte this past weekend as we gave them out at +6 and they lost by 7.  Charlotte outgained them by 44 yards, but were -12.8 field position and -2 TO margin. Marshall held that same team under 200 yards in Week 11, and held UTSA under 200 yards this past weekend. Their defense is playing well, and I think they beat up on FIU.

Ohio State +5 3.3% play

This is Urban Meyer's first time as a home dog since he was a home dog in 2003 at Utah.  Ohio State is 14-2 ATS their last 16 as a dog, and 6-0 SU/ATS under Meyer, and it makes a lot of sense, because they have more talent than most teams, and when it gets to the point that they are dogs, they tend to play their best.  I think it's kind of crazy that they are more than a FG dog at home in this spot, but they haven't looked good the last two weeks, but still everything that they set out to do this season is in front of them.  Urban Meyers has a top flight offense with a QB, that should give Michigan's secondary troubles. 

Ohio State's defense has been the issue, but I think they can rebound here against a Michigan offense that is very easy to prepare for and I think Ohio State's issues have mostly been giving up explosive plays.  Michigan's offense 77th in explosive plays, Ohio State's defense 122nd in explosive defense.  Michigan may get a few big plays, but overall I think Ohio State can hang in this game on that side of the ball.  At home they are allowing nearly 2 yards per carry less against the run, and that's what Michigan relies on the most.

The only thing that worries me in this game is the health of Urban Meyer.  Is he 100%, obviously not, and rumors are all over that he will be retiring after this year, but I am going to say he does not retire.  He's the better coach here, Jim Harbough has not proven anything this year, and all of the pressure is on Michigan.  They have not won a big game under Harbough, and now they have to do it as a favorite, and on the road.  I just don't see it.  Buckeyes may win this one outright. 

Wash/Wash St Under 49 3.3% play

The weather is a big factor here as there will be rain, and 15mph winds, and Washington has dominated this series and have always defended the passing game of Washington State well holding them to 14, 17, 10, and 13 over the past 4 years.  Washington’s program prides themselves on developing NFL ready CB’s and it’s no secret that they have played well in this game. Now that does not mean I think Washington runs away with this game, as I think their offense is really overrated.

Washington is going to run the ball a lot here, I don’t see them putting the ball in Jake Browning’s hands because the offensive line has not done a good job of protecting him ranking 80th, and Washington STate is dangerous ranking 9th in sack %.  Chris Peterson is smart enough to know that his strengths are running the football here. However, the home/away splits this year and the last few years do not favor Washington, which is why I think they score less points than they are typically scoring in this game.  First of all they have only scored over 30 points 4 times all year, against the following defenses - NDakota State, BYU (at home), @UCLA (90TH, & 89th vs. the RUN), and Oregon State (128th). Washington State is ranked 36th at stopping the run, and they do it better at home, and are improved vs. last year’s squad while Washington’s rushing offense ranks 69th in ypc which is nothing special, and are far worse than last year.  I expect this game to come down to the wire, but I do not expect a very aggressive approach from either coach, and both are coming off higher than usual scoring games giving us value on the under here.

Oklahoma -2.5 3.3% play

To me this game is all about line value and what I think is a big coaching edge for Oklahoma. everyone is down on Oklahoma’s defense right now, and that is reflected in this line, but what has West Virginia’s offense really proven, against good QB’s? Oklahoma has the most balanced offense in the country with the #2 passing team and the #1 rushing team from efficiency perspective.  West Virginia is just not as balanced ranking 61st at running the ball, and I do think Oklahoma whose run defense is better than last year and have held 8 of 10 opponents under 200 yards rushing will be able to put this all on the shoulders of Will Grier. Grier will have a fantastic day, but don’t be surprised if he makes a mistake in the red zone. He’s got to be nearly perfect to pull the upset here, and we have seen in years past that they just don’t match up well.

The last 4 years West Virginia has been dominated by Oklahoma losing by 28,28,20, and 12.  Last year Grier did not play, but you could honestly argue this Oklahoma team and offense is better than last year.  I have been really impressed with Kyler Murray and he has truly proven me wrong. As bad as Oklahoma’s defense has been in their last two games I think that gives them motivation to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder.  This game is the biggest game of the year with a chance to stay in the college football playoff, and really solidify their spot with an impressive win. Lincoln Riley has done well in these Big 12 match-ups, and I think that will continue on Friday night.

UCF -14 3.3%

You may hear a lot of sharps pointing to a hangover for UCF after Gameday was on campus last week, but I don’t see it playing an instate rival South Florida.  Central Florida has all the motivation to run the score up here, to get more looks at the college football playoff and I think they totally can do it when you look at South Florida’s schedule their defense has not played well in many games against teams that are very good at running, but average or below passing and vice versa.  They faced one opponent that was great at both, and that was Houston. They gave up 57 points in that game, and I think we could see similar results here.

Houston’s 14th ranked rushing offense has faced opponent average run defense ranking 79th, compare that with UCF’s 12th ranking facing OA run defense ranking 63rd.  The QB play also obviously better although not by much. UCF ranking 6th, vs. OA pass defense 76th compared to Houston 9th and 78.

UCF continues to find ways to win and cover the spread, and I think they are totally aware of the spread going into these games, and the players want to cover it and prove they are better than the experts are giving them credit for.  USF’s strength is running the football, but if they get down early they are going to struggle to come back considering they can’t protect the QB and rank 87th in QB Rating going up against the strength of UCF which is their pass defense.  This cover may come late, but I think there is too much value with UCF despite all the reason some will give you to bet against them. It may be a square play, but these square plays have been cashing. UCF, also major advantage in TO margin, and special teams something nobody will talk about.  UCF 2nd in TO margin compared to USF 81st ranking which will come into play here, and special teams UCF 65th rating compared to South Florida’s 103rd.

Nebraska +9 4.4% NCAAF POD

The weather is calling for light rain and 12mph winds, but I don’t expect it to impact the game very much.  Nebraska is peaking right now playing their best football, and we know they are going to get effort from Scott Frost, as the team continues to impress, and I just feel like this game means more to Nebraska than it does Iowa.  I think they arguably have the best offense that Iowa has faced this year. When you compare them against comparable balanced offenses vs. comparable strength of schedule defenses faced we come up with Penn State, Purdue, and Wisconsin for Iowa.  Iowa’s defense did not play well in any of those games giving up on average 32 points per game and went 1-2. Iowa’s rushing offense is the best of the 4 in my opinion because you have a mobile QB in Adrian Martinez, who is a future Heisman winner in my opinion.  Martinez has 553 yards rushing on the year as a freshman, but he’s also a very accurate natural passer completing 64% of his passes for 15 TD’s and 7 INT’s.

Nebraska probably should have won a couple other games, but Martinez missed time, and this team had turnover and penalty issues earlier in the season.  On the year they average 8.1 penalties per game, and over their last 3 they are down to 5.7. On the year they have -1 TO margin, but over their last 3 games (November) they are +5 TO margin.  

I also think we are getting some value, because if you look at the finals last week.  Nebraska won 9-6 over Michigan State, while Iowa thumped Illinois 63-0, but Iowa only put up 400 yards of total offense to get there as they benefited from 4 ILlinois turnovers, and 2 non-offensive TD’s.  Nebraska’s offense actually played much better against Illinois with 54 points, but 606 yards. I think the line here is totally off based on full season statistics, and Nebraska will probably bring more effort here, and I think they benefit from being the road team away from the distractions of Thanksgiving.

Miss State -11 3.3% play 

Miss State the far superior team and a borderline top 10 team, but their strength of schedule which ranks 4th in the country has held them back a little.  Miss State's defense is a top 5 unit, and every single time Ole Miss has faced a top tier defense they have gotten blown out.  I mentioned this in my weekly podcast that they have lost by more than 14 to A&M, Auburn, LSU, and Alabama, and I could argue that Miss State's defense is the best of the bunch.

Miss State obviously has revenge after losing 31-28 last year, and they lost Nick Fitzgerald very early in that game.  I think they come out here and dominate. 

Iowa State +2.5 3.3% play

Texas a home favorite under Tom Herman is 7-13 ATS, while Matt Campbell and Iowa State are 16-6 ATS as a dog.  Herman, easily has to be distracted with the accusations from form colleague Zac Smith saying he cheated on his wife and right now the injuries are just too much to overcome for Texas, as they will now be without their second WR, and their secondary has had a ton of losses.  Brock Purdy, is a difference maker for Iowa State at QB. With Purdy, Iowa State ranks 33rd in the nation in offense, but without him they ranked 81st.

Looking at all the numbers, Iowa State is the better offense, has the better defense, their pass defense and run defense are clearly better, and they also have the ability to get to the QB and put pressure on Sam Ehlinger.  You could say that they both have impressive wins against common opponents, as Texas beat Oklahoma on neutral field while Iowa State lost by 10, and Iowa State dominated West Virginia at home while Texas lost on a last second pass from Will Grier.  Overall, I think Iowa State has been the better team, and I question what Texas has left after playing 6 straight games decided by 7 points or less. Now they have to play another high energy game against a physical team that is going to be relentless with their energy.  I just don’t know that they can match it especially when Iowa State will get RB David Montgomery with fresh legs in the second half.

Clemson -27.5 3.3% play 

Grabbing this number now before it goes to 28 or 28.5 as it looks like it will.  Clemson won 27-7, but are off a misleading box score.  Many will point to the fact that Clemson did not score an offensive TD, and they knocked BC's starting QB out of the game, but I will point to the situation was clearly against Clemson.  Trevor Lawrence making his first start north of Virginia, on the road, at night, with Gameday, and freezing temperatures.  Yet they still put up nearly 500 yards of offense were +3.99 yards per play +311 yards, and -2 TO margin and still covered the spread. 

Duke has not played a defense remotely close to Clemson who is playing their best right now.  This team is in playoff mode.  Duke barely got by MIami 2 weeks ago despite putting up just 290 yards.  Their defense is not very good right now as they have given up 1,099 yards and 10 rushing TD's in their last 3 games.  Now they have to face a team that actually has a QB that can throw it and they have to do this on the road.  My money is on the big favorite here at home at night. 

Texas A&M -16.5 3.3% play

Head Coach Jimbo Fisher has stated that A&M needs to finish and learn to dominate.  The UAB team that comes into this game 9-1 will have their focused. This is especially true as they let the Auburn game get away late when they had a 10 point lead.  We saw it late in the Ole Miss game as A&M did not stop, and had a late cover at Ole Miss. I see a team that is far superior in talent, and the match-up favors A&M and at home the Aggies are 5-0 ATS, even outgained Clemson by 88 yards.  

Texas A&M has faced one of the toughest schedules all year, while UAB has faced one of the weakest.

This is a big mismatch when you factor in that UAB is a one dimensional offense that relies heavily on the running game.  They run the ball 65% of the time, and rank 26th doing it, but here they’ll face a running defense that ranks 9th in stopping the run, and they have faced an average rushing offense of 39.33.  A&M’s weakness is in pass defense, but that’s not something UAB does well ranking 85th despite facing an average opponent QB Rating defense of 87.7.

This is going to be a game dominated in the trenches by A&M, and as I mentioned earlier they won’t let up.  I see this game a similar final to when UAB stepped up against Florida last year losing 36-7 as a 10.5 point dog.

Virginia +190 2.5% ML Dog of the Week

Georgia Tech off a misleading win against MIami at home.  They largely benefited from two fumbles in special teams, one on a kickoff, and one on a punt that led to points each time.  Special Teams is not a strength of this Georgia Tech team that ranks 116th, compared to Virginia’s 62nd rating.

Virginia also has done well with Bronco Mendhenall as their coach against the option.  Mendenhall dating back to his BYU days always very good at stopping the run, and his 4 meetings with Georgia Tech he has held them to 193 yards per game.  Virginia this season holding opponents 83 yards below their season average as they love to shorten the game and dominate time of possession which I think they should have success doing against Georgia Tech, a defense ranking 85th in yards per play allowed.

Virginia and Georgia Tech have a lot to play for here, but they will need PItt to lose a couple games and win out to get to the ACC CHampionship game.  They have 5 common opponents in conference play. Virginia is 4-1 int hose games and Georgia Tech is 2-3. I really don’t understand this line, I think these are two even teams if anything, and it should be -3.  Georgia Tech’s unique offense is their edge, but given the fact that Virginia has done well defending it that is almost erased. Edge here Virginia as I expect they might pull the outright upset.

Syracuse +10 3.3% play

Syracuse faced 4 teams that finished the year ranked last year, and 3 of those games were on the road against LSU, NC State, and Miami, they lost those 3 games, but all by single digits.  They beat Clemson at home last year, and this year they faced Clemson on the road, a team we would all say is better than last year’s Clemson team, and Clemson had revenge, and it was a travel spot for Syracuse, and they still lost by single digits.  Syracuse is a couple of plays away from being 10-0.

What has Notre Dame proven?  Their best win so far is week 1 vs. Michigan, a totally different team.  I get that Notre Dame is a completely different teams since Ian Book took over, but let’s look at some of the passing defenses he has faced since taking over, Wake Forest 79th, Stanford 88th, Virginia Tech 83rd, Pitt 95th, Navy 127th, Northwestern 57th - They had just 24 points late vs. Northwestern and won by 10 by luck.  Here Syracuse brings the #49th ranked pass defense, and they are aggressive and rank #16 in sack rate. This is the spot that Syracuse can win the game in my opinion, because Ian Book who did not play this game is going to come into a game where against a fast athletic defense, and he might be off just enough to allow Syracuse to get an early lead.

Syracuse 9-2 ATS as a dog over their last 11, and Dino Babers is a very good coach, 9-2 ATS as a dog and 3-0 this year with an average margin of cover of 20ppg in that role this year.  He has one of the best punters in the game, and that is another advantage that’s just not factored into this line as it has led to Syracuse average field position start on offense on the 36.7 yard line.  Notre Dame is playing with all the pressure, with many media outlets looking toward the USC game, and checking off the W’s and getting them to the college football playoff, but I think Syracuse will have a shot to win this game late.  The game is at Yankee Stadium, this is the 3rd time Notre Dame is traveling in 4 weeks with one of those trips to San Diego.

Aside from Notre Dame facing one of the best pass defenses and pass rush units all year, they are facing by far the best offenses all year long.  NOtre Dame ranks 9th in yards per play allowed, but they have not faced many balanced offenses like Syracuse, and an offense that will move fast, and keep you on your toes.  Notre Dame has faced an average offense ranking 76.1, an average rushing offense ranking 72.5, and an average passing offense of 76.5. Notre Dame also hasn’t faced a team with a running QB, so Eric Dungey can give this Irish defense a new look that they haven’t seen all year.

Charlotte +6 3.3% play

FIU controls their own destiny to get to the Conference USA Championship game, but Charlotte is desperately trying to get to a bowl game with two wins to close the season.  They upset a Southern Miss team last time at home, and went toe to toe with Marshall on the road through the first 3 quarters.  This is a hidden gem when you factor in the match-up, and with 3 common opponents Charlotte +147 yards per game compared to FIU who is +67 yards.

Charlotte has faced a far tougher schedule and they went on the road and held SEC TEnnessee to a season low 197 yards, this is a legitimate defense with the strength in stopping the run ranking 13th in the country.  What does FIU like to do?  They run the ball 56% of the time, and they average 4.91 ypc in wins, 3.15 in losses, and 3.58 ypc on the road.  I think FIU struggles to run the ball here, and this will be a close defensive game throughout. I would not be shocked to see Charlotte pull the upset as they lost by only 1 point on the road last year to a more experienced FIU team. 

Colorado +7 -105 5% NCAAF POD

Colorado has a very good home field advantage, and they were giving Washington State a game last week as they trailed by 3 at the half, but ultimately they had too many mistakes, -3 TO margin, and their WR Shenault was rusty.  Utah, won at home last week despite being without their starting QB Huntley, and RB Zach Moss who made up 84% of their offense. Shelley and Shyne, stepped in well at home, but now they are going on the road where Utah has not played particularly well in terms of their statistical splits.  I expect a desperate Colorado team, fighting for their head coaches job in their last home game of the season. Utah 1-4 ATS their last 5 road games as a favorite with 3 outright upsets. I think Colorado has a shot here for their 6th win.

Minnesota -2 3.3% play

Despite this line moving so much I still think there is value.  I mentioned it earlier in the week at +2.5 as a lean in my podcast, but I’ll still back the Gophers here at home as Northwestern has nothing to play for being that they clinched a spot to play in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game.  Northwestern has gone 6-1 in conference play, but have been outgained by 28 yards per game. They had 3 guys in the secondary out last week, and miraculously won at Iowa. They have been one of the luckiest teams this season.

Minnesota fired their defensive coordinator, and the defense played much better last week limiting Purdue to a season low 233 yards, in a 41-10 win.  This young Minnesota team has played significantly better at home +15 points per game +89 yards per game. Northwestern, the last 4 games held to 296 yards per game, and Thorson has not looked great completing 52.8% of his passes.  I think these teams are pretty even, but the situation heavily favors Minnesota. Also, I can’t dive into too many stats, as Minnesota is just a different team than earlier in the season. The firing of Robb Smith could be the biggest impact, as he ran a very difficult scheme for a young defense.  THe defense now as PJ Fleck has said, “sound, simple, fast.” The “simple” defense for a young athletic defense is the big key, and a struggling Northwestern offense should have issues as they rank 76th in TO Margin.

TCU -1 4.4% Play

SMU +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD 

Let's first take a look at the situational spot that favors SMU.  They have revenge in a very meaningful game. Both teams can clinch their division and get to the Championship game if they win out.  Memphis could be peaking ahead to their showdown with Houston next, a team that SMU beat at home already especially the fact that Memphis won 65-45 last year, and that's where the revenge comes in.  In that game Memphis was coming off a bye, and had the extra time to prepare, but here they are on short rest, and traveling.  They did this earlier in the season and lost at Tulane in blowout fashion.  Home/Away splits are huge here, as Memphis has only beaten a bad East Carolina team on the road losing to Navy, Tulane, Missouri, and SMU at home played right with Cinci, beat Navy, and beat Houston, the leader in the division.

Now let's look at the statistics and analytics.  Overall, SMU's offensive statistics are misleading, as they have played a lot better of late.  They have also faced a far tougher schedule with an average opponent ypp defense ranking 55.11 compared to Memphis who has faced 94.33.  Defensively it looks like these two teams are the same ranking 63rd (Memphis), and 65th (SMU) in yards per play allowed, but a closer look reveals that once again Memphis has faced a weaker schedule facing 79.22, while SMU's average opponent ypp offense ranks 55.33.  Need more?  SMU's opponents average defensive success rate 40.16%, compared to Memphis 43.77.  Opponent average offensive success rate 42.97% to 40.71% in favor of SMU.  So once again it's clear that SMU not only has faced a tougher schedule, but it has been drastically tougher.

On paper this looks like a bad match-up for SMU ranking 82nd in rushing defense, but they held a Houston rushing offense under 200 yards, and that Houston rushing offense is similar ranking 14th in ypc, vs. avg opponent defense 87.5.  Memphis comes into the game ranking 5th in yards per carry, and they have the leading rusher in Henderson who will flash across the media reports, but they have faced an average defense ranking 91.11 in stopping the run.  Also, SMU likes to pass more than they run, but are facing Memphis #7 ranked pass defense, but hold on that pass defense ranks 7th against an average opponent QB rating of 88.88.  

SMU, can get to the QB and protect their QB more in this game which is a huge advantage.  They have edge in overall ranking and strength of schedule so the big key will be for SMU on defense to get Memphis into third and longs to get off the field with their pass rush.  Memphis just 62nd at protecting their QB despite facing an opponent average sack rate of 96.44 in the country.  Memphis ranks 41st at getting to the QB in terms of sack rate. 

Special Teams is something often overlooked, but it clearly will come up in this game, and SMU has a huge advantage ranking 27th, compared to Memphis 123rd ranking.  TO margin, another thing you have to look at and SMU ranks 8th in TO Margin having faced an opponent average TO margin ranking 56, compared to Memphis who is 59th, and has faced an opponent average ranking of 81.

Miami Ohio +6.5 -105 4.5% NCAAF POD – no need to buy the half point.

Miami is playing their best football right now, and with near wins on the road against Buffalo, they were in that game, and at Army and then their win last week against Ohio at home, I am impressed.  This is not out of the ordinary for this team to go on a run at the end of the season with this head coach and QB Gus Ragland.  Miami Ohio will be the more motivated team here on Wednesday night as they need wins in their final two games, while Northern Illinois has clinched a spot in the MAC Championship after Ball State shocked Western Michigan in OT last night.

Northern Illinois I would argue is a bit over rated at 7-3, as they have gone 3-0 in coin flip games while Miami Ohio 4-6 has gone 0-4 in coin flip games.  I think these teams are pretty even otherwise, and getting 6.5 points to a team with a very good defense, going up against a one dimensional offense with more motivation on the side of Miami makes me really like this game here.

Northern Illinois 126th in ypp offense, has faced some of the best defenses in the country, but here they will face one of the better defenses in MAC play as Miami Ohio ranks 41st in ypp defense, and 11th vs. the run which is the strength of Northern Illinois.  Miami Ohio also ranks #1 vs. the pass and has faced better passing teams than Northern Illinois who ranks 94th in QB Rating.

Gus Ragland will be the difference here, going up against Northern Illinois struggling pass defense.  Ragland has been able to make good decisions all year, and he’s rarely sacked which is the one thing Northern Illinois pass defense relies on.  Northern Illinois defense as a whole is elite ranking 10th in ypp allowed, but they have weaknesses having faced offenses that just aren’t very good ranking 82.2 on average in ypp.  Yet they still have -0.2 ypp differential on the season.  Their run defense ranks a peculiar 100th in ypc allowed.  Miami Ohio’s rushing offense is better than their 71st ranking having faced an opponent defense ranking 46.7.  So, I think Miami Ohio can score in the 20’s and cover this spread and possibly pull the upset.

Buffalo +121 1.5% play 

Arkansas +13.5 3.3% play w/ Arkansas +445 7:30pm on SEC

Arkansas has a shot here if this turns into just a game in the trenches.  LSU ranks 82nd in running the ball compared to Arkansas who ranks 35th, and really coming on strong in their last 4 games.  I get that Alabama probably did not have their full attention, but Arkansas did put up 31 points on Alabama at home. LSU, just got their bubble burst against Alabama and you have to wonder where they are mentally.  Arkansas has also been good at stopping the run ranking 61st compared to LSU who has now fallen to 80th.

Arkansas has faced LSU the last 4 years following their game with Alabama.  They lost badly the last two years, but had won the previous 2, and the only time they came off a bye like they are here they shut out LSU 17-0.  Arkansas has 7 losses, but they are still playing for their first SEC win. With MIss State, and Missouri on deck this is their best shot believe it or not because those are road games.  LSU has not exactly been lights out on the road, and their wins look a lot impressive now. Their game on neutral field against Miami to open the season does not look good at all, their 1 point miracle win at Auburn looks bad, as Tennessee beat them by 6.  Their loss by 8 at Florida even looks worse when you consider Florida has lost twice at home as favorites losing last week by 21 to Missouri, a team that did not have an SEC win, and to Kentucky by 8 earlier in the season.

In 3 of the last 4 games LSU has given up over 200 yards, and I expect Arkansas to be in this game, because of their play in the trenches.  Chad Morris style is really more in the passing game, but Arkansas is running the ball over 54% of the time. I also think a first year head coach coming off the bye is always dangerous.  We saw it earlier this season in the SEC with Jeremy Pruitt winning as a big dog at Auburn.

Georgia -14 3.3% play on ESPN @ 7:00PM ET

The only thing keeping this from a premium play is the fact that Georgia might not have any motivation to blow an opponent out at this point they control their own destiny, but with U Mass on deck, I think Georgia could want to make one last statement, and they absolutely can if they want to.

I really see Georgia clicking right now, and I was on Kentucky last week, because I thought they could out play Georgia in the trenches.  Georgia had already out played just about every team in the trenches this season, but Georgia clearly dominated 331 to 84 yards rushing. I see the same sort of thing happening here as Auburn struggles on third down, and their defense is going to spend a lot of this game on the field.

Auburn’s defense is the only thing keeping them in games.  Auburn was held under 300 yards yet again, but somehow win the games A&M self imploded in the 4th quarter.  I think that gives us roughly 3 points of line value in this game, as Auburn’s offense won’t be able to do much here.  They rank 112th in the country running the ball. Jarret Stidham’s offensive line is not protecting him, and Georgia’s pass defense has been really good, and their pass rush is just starting show up with 4 sacks a week ago.  

Georgia has been dominating at home winning 10 straight by 28.6 points per game, and they have won all of their games by 14 or more points this year.  They are at home and have clear advantages in special teams, and TO margin.

Tennessee +195 2.5% DOG of the Week

Kentucky is a very emotional team, and emotional team’s tend to struggle following a game like Kentucky had last week against Georgia.  Kentucky’s bubble burst, and I expect them to struggle to get up for this game against Tennessee after their dream season is gone, and they’ll be without their best S Darius West for the first half serving a suspension.  They really have nothing to gain by winning this game as they already clinched second place in the SEC East. Tennessee meanwhile is showing signs of improving since their bye week when they went on the road and beat Auburn 30-24.

Tennessee comes of a lackluster performance against Charlotte 14-3 last week, but that was all I needed for proof that they have been looking forward to this game.  This is the first time ever Kentucky is favored at Tennessee, and TN lost to Kentucky last year so I expect they will look to rebound here.

Tennessee’s QB play has been getting better and they have thrown just 2 INT’s all season long, and over their last 5 games they have just 2 total turnovers.  That will keep you in a game against Kentucky who is just not an offensive juggernaut. You know you are going to have to stop the run, and Tennessee’s run defense is capable of doing that at home.  I’m worried that Kentucky is just emotionally spent. They had won in the trenches in just about every game until last week where they were just dominated. Tennessee’s run defense actually held Georgia to less rushing yards when they faced them.  We saw a similar situation last week with Florida. Their bubble burst yet they were a 6 point favorite at home to Missouri who came in with zero SEC Wins, and flat out dominated the Gators.

Alabama / Miss State U52 2.2% play 

Northwestern/Iowa Over 42 3.3% play 

I really like the over here, as both teams actually throw the ball more than they run the ball.  The weather is not going to impact this at all with under 10 mph winds, and two QB's that love to chuck it around.  Also, 29 degrees really impacts tackling more than anything else.  Also, factor in Northwestern is without 2 DB's who have been ruled out of this game including SR. Safety Jared McGee, I like the over here. 

North Carolina +11 3.3% play 

Normally I’d look to fade a team coming off their 7th loss of the season, but the Tarheels have been in a ton of games this year rarely losing by double digits, and they are facing their rival who they lost to the last 2 years.  We have a typical sell high buy low situation as North Carolina just got beat by Georgia Tech by 10, and Duke beat Miami on the road. Many will point to the fact that these two have the common road game at Miami. North Carolina lost a mid week game by 37 points, while Duke won by 8 in a sloppy game last week with weather having a huge impact, but this is giving us 2 or 2.5 points of value in my opinion.

When North Carolina had the mid-week game here they were -4 TO margin, but only -25 total yards, and -14 yards in the trenches.  Duke, was -154 yards in the trenches last week. When we look at Duke’s 3 losses to Virginia, Virginia Tech & Pitt they were - yardage in the trenches in all 3 games at -391 yards while North Carolina was only -117 yards.  Duke has been especially bad of late, and their LB Joe Gile-Harris is doubtful to return for this game.

North Carolina has a talented running game ranking 34th in the country, and that should allow them to move the ball on a Duke team that is really struggling to stop the run right now.  This is Duke’s biggest favorite role vs. UNC since 1989, and I really don’t see why. I get UNC is 1-7, but they were in the game against Georgia Tech last week, Virginia the week before, they lost by 3 to Syracuse on the road, 3 to Virginia Tech, they beat Pitt by 3, and they would have beaten Cal earlier in the year, and only lost by 7 despite a -4 TO margin.  UNC also has advantages in special teams ranking 13th vs. Duke’s 74th rating, and their pass rush that ranks 17th could give Daniel JOnes issues here. The only thing that worries me is UNC turns the ball over, which is why it’s not making a higher rated play here.

Indiana -1.5 4.4% NCAAF POD @12PM on BIG 10 Network

TCU +11.5  3.3% play - 12pm on FOX

West Virginia has played nobody on defense this year with the exception of Iowa State and they lost that game badly.  The next best defense is Texas who ranks 67th in yards per play, but a team that stronger vs. the run than they are against the pass as we saw last week.  West Virginia got their asses beat at Iowa State, and although this game is at home I think West Virginia could be overlooking TCU, a team who is very similar to Iowa State on defense, and also ironically beat Iowa State 17-14 earlier this year.

Will Grier got sacked 7 times against Iowa State, and here he faces a similar pass rush in TCU that ranks 30th, Iowa State ranks 32nd in sack % against similar strength of competition.  West Virginia hasn’t protected Grier well ranking 78th in pass protection. TCU actually ranks better in offensive and defensive success rate when we compare against Iowa State, and their only glaring weakness is against the pass where they rank 61st, but against an average 46th ranked passing offense compared to Iowa State who ranks 37th, vs. #59 strength of schedule.

TCU has had injuries, and they have had turnovers, those are two biggest issues, but this is a team with the coaching edge here, and if there were ever a buy low situation it is here.  I think the QB switch to MIke Collins, due to Shawn Robinson’s injury is a good one. They are now only turning the ball over 1.3 x per game prior they were turning the ball over 3 and 4 times a game which has cost them easily in several games.  

West Virginia has showed issues in the past playing with pressure at this point in the season.  With Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma on deck, this is a team that is flawed in my opinion. They commit double the penalties comparedw ith TCU, and TCU also enjoys a better special teams ranking 25th.  

Boise State +130 3% play

Boise State should not be an underdog in this spot against Fresno State at home where they haven’t been an underdog since 2005 I believe.  These two teams know each other well as this will be the 3rd time they are facing each other in less than 12 months.  Boise beat Fresno 17-14 in last year’s MWC Championship game 1 week after they lost to them at Fresno.  There is a lot of talk about Fresno being up there with UCF as the best Group of 5 team in the nation, and I think Boise players will take that personally.  I also don’t believe it to be true as Fresno State has not played anyone.  Last year’s Fresno State team was tested early playing Alabama & Washington back to back.  This year they had Minnesota (LOST), and UCLA on their schedule.  Those two teams have combined for a 6-12 record and will both most likely miss a bowl game this year.  Their next toughest game was at Nevada who was without their starting QB Ty Gangi.  Otherwise their schedule in conference play has been really easy.

Let’s look at strength of schedule a bit more. Both of these teams have similar offenses.  Boise ranks 34thin yards per play, Fresno ranks 22nd, but Boise has faced an average YPP defense ranking 62.44 compared to Fresno at 87.37.  That’s a big difference, and it is particularly evident in the rushing defenses they have faced.  Boise State and Fresno have identical rushing #’s form a yards per carry perspective, and nearly identical running numbers form a YPP defense, and opponent offense perspective.  The biggest difference is the fact that Boise has faced an average opponent defense ranking 49.7 compared to Fresno who has faced 79.37, a difference of 30 spots in strength of schedule.  That is significant and I think that will allow Boise State to have a little balance as UNLV rushed for 197 yards a week ago.

Both QB’s in this game are going to be the reason why their team wins or loses.  They are both in the top 15 in QB rating, and both have faced weak passing defenses ranking on average 89th for Fresno, and 85.33 for Boise.  Now Fresno’s pass defense on paper is a lot better ranking 3rd, but they have yet to play a QB that can throw with an average opponent ranking 84.5, and that number should even be worse, because remember they faced Nevada without Ty Gangi who has good numbers.  Fresno State will also have a tough time protecting their QB here asthey rank 3rd in protection, but haven’t faced a pass rush all season with an average pass opponent sack % ranking 88.3.  Boise State ranks 4th in pass rush, and being at home that advantage only increases.  Being that this game is a big Friday night games on national TV will only increase that home field advantage in my opinion.  The games that Boise State has lost were the games that they could not protect Rypien.  Road game at Oklahoma State they allowed 7 sacks in their loss.  Oklahoma State has the nation’s #15 sack % and they have faced a decent opponent protection average of 68th on average.  San Diego State on paper has the 80th sack %, and got to Rypien 4 times.  They employ a 3-3-5 defense which is more of a blitz defense than anything else, and it created 3 interceptions with Rypien.  San Diego State’s pass rush has also faced very good pass protecting teams on average #59.  Fresno, on the other hand comes into this game ranking 83rd in sack %, and they have faced an opponent average sack % allowed of 80.25.  They have played a lot of bad pass protecting teams, and they have been in a lot of situations when they know a team is going to pass, because they have been up big in many of these games yet they still only have the 83rd ranked sack%.  I think Boise will have time in this game on offense, and I think their running game will show some life.

This is Fresno State’s second road game in a row, and it comes on a short week while Boise was at home last week.

Miami Ohio +4.5 2.2% play 

Miami has been playing better having just taken two of the best non power 5 teams to the 4th quarter in Army and Buffalo who combine fora  16-3 record.  Meanwhile Ohio just got down pounding the crap out of 3 awful teams.  Western Michigan the most recent one, who were fighting injuries including losing their starting QB.  Ohio who relies on the run 63% of their play calls are running plays behind their QB Nathan Rourke who is a dual threat guy.  They just went up against 96th, 126th, and 97th ranked rushing defense, and here they'll face Miami Ohio who ranks 29th.  MIami Ohio also even better in conference play allowing 3.17 ypc, and they are +1.55 ypc in conference play which is better than Ohio's advantage.

Ohio was typically a team relying on defense in past year, but this year their defense has looked pretty awful ranking 100th in yards per play and 101st in success rate allowed.  I think Gus Ragland who did not play last year in this match-up can take advantage in a game that they are desperate for a win.  Ragland the Sr. QB has this offense on a roll having scored 30+ points in 6 straight games.  They have a balanced group and going up against an Ohio defense that has not been very good.  Their 100th ranked ypp defense is against an average opponent ranking 81.25 in offensive YPP.

Alabama -14.5 3.3% play

I'm not afraid of this historical point spread here, as this is the largest home dog role for a top 4 team ever, but... Alabama is a historically great team, that I get has not been challenged, but that is great material for Saban to feed his kids for 2 weeks.  LSU, is also really not the 3rd best team in the country, and we just be honest about that?  LSU ranks 92nd in yards per play on the season, and Joe Burrow's QB Rating ranks 108th.  Burrow is not the type of player that can give Alabama's defense any kind of issues, and they have not been particularly good at protecting him ranking 78th in pass protection while Alabama is 18th at getting to the QB.  Burrow averages 6.9 yards per attempt, 82nd, and he is only completing 53.8% of his passes and while he has 250 yards rushing the majority of that came on a couple big plays.  Make no mistake about it he is not a mobile QB. 

Alabama's defense in my opinion is under rated.  I expect their best effort in this game.  They really haven't had to play all year long, and going into this game they will have that feeling that they do.  Nick Saban also great with 2 weeks to prepare and is the far better coach.  If they get up big I think the lead only grows as they should have success running the ball against an LSU front that is without their best defensive player in Devin White for the first half, and they have been particularly bad against the run ranking 59th this year.  They also have not faced a team that can throw and pass like Alabama, and I expect a 41-14 type of a final here. 

Florida Atlantic +125 3.5% ML Dog of the Week 7:30pm kickoff

FAU is actually playing better on defense of late, and outgained their last two opponents despite losing the games outright.  I think they are looking at another game where they will outgain their opponent, and they should take care of business. FAU has serious value now, after winning 9 games last year ATS I mentioned they were a fade candidate on my podcast earlier in the season, but now we can buy low, and there is a lot of reason to in this spot.

#1 they are desperate for a win so they can go bowling, and they are the more talented team facing an instate rival.  They rank nearly 30 spots higher in the S&P poll, and would have been a -14 favorite in the pre-season look ahead lines.

#2 they will win in the trenches running the ball.  Both teams run the ball over 55% of the time, and FAU ranks 40th in yards per carry and they have gotten that rank having faced an opponent average run defense ranking 57.7.  Here they go up against the 89th ranked run defense, and that run defense has not faced a rushing offense as good as Florida Atlantic. On average FIU has faced #71 rushing offense.  FIU comes in ranking 63rd running the ball which is not that bad, but digging deeper we see that they have gotten that ranking against an average run defense ranking 87.8. Here they face FAU’s run defense which ranks 79th, not great, but FAU has faced an opponent offense ranking 61st with opponents on the schedule like Oklahoma, Air Force and Central Florida.

#3 FAU has an extra day of preparation which is key considering it’s such an important game for them to turn their season around.

LA Tech +23.5 2.2% play 

I have actually done quite well backing this team in my career and have done so twice already this year.  We took LA Tech +21 at LSU and LA Tech -10.5 winner over UTSA back on 10/13.  They are 21-7 ATS as a road dog, and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the SEC.  This is a big sandwich game for Miss State who just beat a good Texas A&M team in misleading fashion, and have Alabama on deck.  Last year they had the same spot, and hosted Umass as a 34 point dog, and they nearly lost the game holding on 34-23.  Miss State has a history of poor play vs. group of play dating back to 2016 they lost at home to South Alabama 20-21, beat Umass by only 12, lost to BYU by 7, beat Samford by only 15, beat Miami Ohio by only 1, beat La Tech last year by 36, but that was at the beginning of the year.

Louisiana Tech has an extra day to prepare here, and have an excellent coach in Skip Holtz.  I mentioned Miss State's victory last week was misleading.  They scored 2 TD's on third and long, and picked Miss State in the end zone up 21-13, and scored on an 84 yard play.  A&M as good as their defense has been is 129th in explosive plays allowed.  Louisiana Tech's defense is 53rd, and that's mainly because they have a very good pass rush led by sack daddy Ferguson who should pass Terrel Suggs for the most sacks of all time (44) before the season is out.  I expect a somewhat vanilla approach from Miss State in this game with Alabama on deck, and they are going up against a very good defense that ranks 37th in yards per play.  Louisiana Tech's offense has struggled but they have faced a tough schedule, and the offense looked much better against LSU than MIss State did in their common opponent game.

Northwestern +10 3.3% play

I still do not know how good Notre Dame is and I am very skeptical.  Notre Dame is just 3-14 ATS the last 4 years in the month of November when you have to pay a premium to back them.  They are just 3-11 ATS the week after Navy, and this year they have a particularly difficult spot traveling back from San Diego where they played Navy last week.  They’ll be playing at Northwestern for the first time in 42 years, Notre Dame usually hosts this game or it’s played at Soldier Field, and it will also be a rare night game.  The only thing keeping this from a higher rated play is the fact that Northwestern has a more important game next week against Iowa, but being in a dog role against Notre Dame a nearby rival and powerhouse I doubt they’ll be looking past this game.  Northwestern did beat Notre Dame the last two meeting outright as a 28 point dog and 17 point dog. Now a lot of people are saying the stadium will be 80% Notre Dame fans, but I don’t agree with that at all I think it will be closer to 50-50, but probably 60-65% Notre Dame fans.

These are great situation edges, and I didn't even mention Northwestern who is 9-0 ATS their last 9 as a dog.  I am also 3-0 ATS backing NW this year, and 10-3 ATS over our last 13. Notre Dame has played a far weaker schedule when you look at it the defenses they have faced rank on average 85.6th in the nation in yards per play.  Ian Book has had a nice start since taking over, but I think he’s getting too much credit when you factor in he’s thrown 4 interceptions, quietly, in his last 3 games and since taking over he has faced pass defenses ranking 99th, 100th, 77th, 89th,and 123.  Meanwhile, Northwestern’s pass defense ranks 42nd, the bend but don’t break unit will create some issues for Notre Dame here in my opinion, especially in the red zone where they are holding opponents to 47% TD rate.

NW’s run defense is not nearly as good as it typically is ranking 68th, but at home they are a lot better allowing 1.51 yards per carry less than their road games.  Still, in wins they are giving up plenty of rushing yards, and they just find other ways to win like special teams. Northwestern has the edge in that category which is a big key to go along with home field advantage.

Northwestern’s offense has struggled this year on paper, but they have faced some tough defenses.  They have an NFL QB in Clayton Thorson who did not play well last week, but they still beat Wisconsin.  Thorson has struggled, but they have faced on average a defense ranking 41st against the pass. Compare that with what Ian Book has faced since taking over and you can see we are getting value with Northwestern.  Notre Dame also is not a team with much of a pass rush. They rank 73rd in getting to the QB and that is against an opponent average sack % allowed ranking 71st in the country. Basically they are slightly below average, and have faced teams who protect their QB slightly below average.  Notre Dame has also struggled against pass happy teams. Vanderbilt #47 in pass play % lost at Notre Dame 22-17, but should have won the game behind a similar QB in Kyle Schurmur. Ball State, ranks 21st in pass play %, and also right in the game with Notre Dame losing 24-16. Well, Northwestern’s rushing offense woke up a bit last week, but they still rely on the arm of Thorson as they are 6th in the nation in pass play %.  I think this is a one possession game late just as Northwestern was with Michigan, a team that would be favored on a neutral field over Notre Dame despite losing in week 1.

Kentucky +8.5 2.2% play 

This is the best defense that Georgia has played on the road the last two years.  Kentucky ranks top 20 in opponent QB rating, sack %, and they are 12th vs. the run.  Georgia has played two similar defenses on the road who were top 25 in pass defense with Jake Fromm and they lost both by 22, and 23 points to Auburn & LSU, who are two teams also not known for their explosive offense.  Fromm really struggled in those two games, and I expect he will struggle here on the road against Josh Allen and company.  Fromm vs. LSU/Auburn a combined 2 TD's 2 INT's 29-62 46.7% completion rate, with 393 yards.  LSU has the #87 pass rush, and #58 run defense to go along with those #'s, and Kentucky is 12th vs. the run, 15th in pass rush.  Auburn last year was 18th in opponent QB Rating, 27th pass rush, and 27th vs. the run as the closes example to this Kentucky defense that has been tested at this point by good passing offenses (Missouri), and good rushing offenses. 

On the flip side if we look at Georgia's impressive performance last week, and we were on the wrong side with our POD on Florida +7.  Georgia scored all 4 TD's on third down, and they had +3 TO margin.  What is also hidden is Florida's QB Franks missing a wide open receiver for a TD on the first play of the game which would have completely changed the momentum, because what happened next was a fumble by a Florida RB and suddenly it's 10-0.  Kentucky's strength is obviously running the ball, and they rank 26th doing so, and will be going up against a small inexperienced front 7 that can be had.  Georgia 72nd vs. the run compared to Kentucky #12 rating and they have not faced stronger rushing offenses than Kentucky.  If they want to crowd the box I think Terry Wilson is fully capable of taking advantage.  Georgia ranks 110th in sack % so it's not like they can come after the mobile QB.  I hope the game plan features Kentucky throwing a couple of deep passes early and they get a lead that they can lean on Benny Snell and Terry Wilson at home. 

LIberty +115 5.5% NCAAF POD 3:30PM Kickoff

Umass officially lose their starting QB in Andrew Ford for the season, and Ross Comis who has been decent in his place will have to step up in competition facing Liberty’s 59th ranked pass defense,  Liberty has plenty of talent in the front 7 as well and Umass has not been good at protecting their QB ranking 96th in sack % allowed which has led to a lot of TO’s as they rank 120th in the nation in TO margin.  Comis just went up against 106th, and 120th ranked pass defenses, but here he faced #59, and LIberty is also off a bye with extra time to prepare.

Liberty offensively is just as good if not better than Umass as they rank 52nd in yards per play, and have faced better defenses on the season.  Their QB Stephen Calvert has 16 TD’s to 7 INT”s 2,256 yards and he will go up against the 128th ranked pass defense that also ranks 120th in getting to the QB.  He has an NFL WR in 6’4 Antonio Golden who should have a monster game, and he gets his starting RB Kentory Matthews back after he missed the last 4 games.

Umass wins have come over Charlotte and Uconn (should have lost), enough said.  Meanwhile Liberty has beaten Old Dominion (beat Virginia Tech), New Mexico, and Troy (beat Nebraska).  With Virginia and Auburn up next this is a critical game for LIberty, and they are getting healthy at the right time.  Also important to note is they commit fewer penalties, are better on 3rd down offense, defense, and red zone offense and defense, and also in special teams although not by much.

Air Force +6.5 3.3% Kickoff at Noon CBS Sports

Texas A&M +3.5 3.3% Noon kickoff on ESPN

We are getting an extra point compared to A&M’s road game last week at Miss State +2.5, and that was a night game, this one played at noon a less intimidating atmosphere.  I don’t care of Auburn and Gus Malzahn are off a bye, he is 20-39-2 ATS since 2014, and I think the Aggies simply match-up well against Auburn. Also, Aggies final last week against Miss State was extremely misleading.  Nick Fitzgerald had 2 third and long TD passes including a 84 yarder on 3rd and 20, and there was a 14 point swing with A&M trailing 21-13 late threw an interception in the end zone and Miss State went on a long TD drive.

Auburn is a team that needs to run the ball.  When they don’t rush for over 200 yards they are just 4-11 since 2016, and TExas A&M has an elite run defense right now they rank 20th in yards per carry and that has come against some of the best rushing offenses.  They have not allowed any opponent to average more than 5 yards per carry or rush for more than 147 yards. The average rushing offense they have faced comes in at 23.8, and Auburn’s struggling unit comes in at #97, and they have that ranking facing #66 run defense.  Their top RB JaTArvious Whitlow is questionable for this game with an ankle injury which is not a good sign for a RB.

If Auburn goes to the pass they will be in trouble as they have not been able to protect Jarret Stidham very well and he has struggled.  TExas A&M one of the best in the nation at getting to the QB ranking 6th despite a challenging schedule. I think A&M should be a 4 point favorite on neutral field, and early sharp money agrees pushing this line from 6 down to 3.5, but don’t worry there is still value as the road team is 6-0 SU&ATS in this series since the Aggies joined the SEC.

Maryland/Mich St Under 46 2.2% 

There will be 16 mph winds in this game with gusts up to 30mph winds.  We have two teams that are run first programs.  Maryland is actually 3rd in yards per carry, but struggle when they step up in competition against teams that can stop the run, and Michigan State is 4th in the country against the run.  The last time they played a good defense in windy conditions it was Iowa and they scored 0 points.  On the flip side Maryland is very good defending the run ranking 37th.  Michigan State likes to throw the ball a bit more than previous seasons, but it's mainly because they play from behind, and with a freshman QB making his first start on the road I expect a more conservative approach.  The last 3 totals in this match-up have been 24, 45, and 31. 

Miami Ohio +7 3.3% play

Miami Ohio only 2 big losses came at the hands of Cincinnati, a team that is having an excellent season, and that game came in inclement weather, and Minnesota, a team form the BIG TEN with much more talent.  The non-conference schedule for Miami Ohio having played Marshall, Minnesota, and Cincinnati is much stronger than Buffalo’s schedule against an FCS, Temple who was playing poorly at the time, and Rutgers.  Miami Ohio also outplayed a non-conference common opponent on the road in Army losing 30-31, vs. Buffalo who lost 13-42. 

The key for Miami Ohio is to run the ball here.  The weather will be good enough to throw it if you want to, but that would not be smart for Miami Ohio who will be going up against a Buffalo defense that is very good against the pass ranking 11th in the nation, and 25th in sack%, 26th in yards per pass attempt defense.  Buffalo’s weakness is against the run where they rank 58th in yards per carry allowed and that has been against an average opponent ypc offense ranking 83rd.  Miami Ohio in conference play has averaged 5.04 ypc with 11 TD’s, and they are averaging 5.62 yards per carry in wins, and 2.82 ypc in losses.  They have definitely focused more on running ball in conference games which I think is a good thing here on the road as they have average 42 carries in their 4 conference games compared to 26 in non-conference games.  They have 3 excellent rushing games, and the good news is they were able to run the ball at Akron, a team that on paper looks like they are better at stopping the run than Buffalo.  In that game they ran 38 times for 208 yards and 4 TD’s in the 41-17 win.  Buffalo in conference play has allowed 4.23 yards per carry.  They allowed Akron who ranked 120th in yards per carry at 3.2 to rush for 3.75, and against Central Michigan who ranks 101st they allowed the Chippewas to rush for 168 yards and 4.8 yards per carry.  Miami outplayed Buffalo at the line of scrimmage in last year’s match-up rushing for 172 to 69 yards.  Akron was another common opponent for these two teams, and Miami Ohio outplayed them at the line of scrimmage 208 rushing yards 4 TD’s to 56 and 0TD’s.  Miami Ohio did that on the road while Buffalo hosted Akron

I think Miami Ohio’s defense is being overlooked here in this spread.  Miami Ohio ranks 24th in yards per play allowed, and that has come against a slightly better strength of schedule in terms of offenses they have faced.  They rank 30th vs. the run which is the big key here considering Buffalo runs the ball 56.6% of the time.  Miami Ohio 2.86 ypc allows in their wins and 1 TD, and 3.88 in their losses.  Buffalo has been a team that has been steamed all year, and I greatly agree with that as I think they were a very under rated team and I backed them a few times as well, but it’s now at the point of resistance for me.  This is a big game to decide the MAC East, and I feel like it should be a close game as Miami Ohio takes care of the football and has a slightly better special teams team two huge keys in a game like this.

Purdue +8 w/ Texas A&M +7.5 4.4% NCAAF Teaser

Purdue +8 - I’m going with the better team here and I’m not expecting a “let down.”  Jeff Brohm is a very good coach, and Purdue is fighting to get to the Big Ten Championship, a real possibility right now.  MIchigan State’s injuries are just piling up, and they can’t run the ball ranking 120th in the country, and that will allow Purdue’s aggressive defense to force some mistakes from Brian Lewerke who has nobody to throw the ball to now that Felton Davis, his top target is out for the season.  Michigan State had defensive backs running routes and getting targets last week against Michigan.

Purdue is just the better team, and Michigan State won’t have enough offense against an under rated Purdue defense.  Purdue is very balanced in all aspects, and David Blough should have a big day much like Clayton Thorson did here a few weeks back as Thorson threw it all over the yard.  Purdue’s offensive scheme is very unique for the Big Ten, and they have arguably the most explosive player in the conference in Rondale Moore who is a mismatch here and is averaging 14 yards every time he touches the ball.

People are talking about the “let down” for Purdue, but what about Michigan State, their Big Ten aspirations are very dim after losing to big brother, and with all the injuries I can’t see the confidence is even close to the confidence on the other sideline with Purdue.  These teams may have the same record, but Purdue is literally a few plays away from being 7-0.

Texas A&M +7.5

The only thing that makes me nervous about this game is Miss State looked awful a week ago at LSU, and everyone is throwing them in the trash.  We did the same thing after they lost to Kentucky and Florida, but then backed them against Auburn, a big win 23-9, but we have seen Auburn trending in the other direction.  Here Texas A&M off the bye matches up very well with Miss State.

Miss State could be without their top RB HIll who is questionable and that means NIck Fitzgerald will be asked to do even more following a physical game at LSU last week.  He goes up against a Texas A&M defense that is legit against the run ranking 14th in the country despite facing a challenging schedule. On average the Aggies have faced a rushing YPC offense ranking 27th.  This spells trouble for Miss State who rushes for 7.13 ypc in their wins with 14TD’s but just 3.72, and 1 TD in their 3 losses to run defenses ranked 59th, 56th, and 14th.

Texas A&M has a stiff task though going on the road to play a night game against a very good defense.  Their is one spot that the Aggies might have an advantage and that’s Kellen Mond. Mond has had some very good games this year including 430 yards passing against Clemson 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s, and against South Carolina before the bye he threw for 353, 1 TD and 0 INT”s vs. South Carolina.  Clemson ranks 17th in opposing QB rating, and South Carolina ranks 38th. Miss State ranks 14th, but they have yet to face a QB that can throw the ball with an average opponent QB rating of 78.67. A&M also ranks #3 in the country in special teams to Miss State’s 23rd ranking.

Kentucky +7.5 -120 3.5% play

Kentucky is being completely disrespected here, and that is the one thing that motivates this team more than anything.  I don’t really understand the love for Missouri. I get that Kentucky’s QB Terry Wilson threw for 18 yards last week and the strength of MIssouri’s defense is the run defense, but the Kentucky Vanderbilt game was all about getting out with a win.  There was 20 mph winds in that game, and Kentucky controlled the line of scrimmage 280 rushing yards to 68.

Missouri has a QB, and Kentucky’s pass defense has been excellent ranking 16th in the country, they also get to the QB ranking 15th in sack %.  Drew Lock looked great last week in putting up 60+ points, but that’s just what he does. He dominates poor competition and then he struggles against bowl teams.  In his career 21 passing TD’s and 28 INT’s against teams who go to a bowl.

Missouri’s pass defense is a real weakness ranking 104th and 115th in sack %, so I actually expect Terry Wilson could have a decent game here and create some balance for Kentucky.  If he struggles I don’t think Kentucky hesitates bringing in the backup QB here. Kentucky ranks 13th in explosive plays allowed, and Missouri has struggled in the red zone this year while Kentucky is allowing just 35% TD percentage.  Another advantage in favor of Kentucky.

Florida +7 -115 5% NCAAF POD

Georgia has not looked good in the trenches in their two games against top 30 opponents Missouri, and LSU.  Though they won at MIssouri they gave up 4 rushing TD’s, and were lucky to have been +2 TO margin. They lost at LSU 2 weeks ago at the line of scrimmage as LSU rushed for 275 yards compared to Georgia’s 113.  Florida hosted LSU and beat them by out rushing them 215 to 180. I really don’t see much separating these two teams other than the QB position which I give an edge to Jake Fromm, but he has a ton of pressure on him this week with a freshman QB breathing down his back all year long.

The big question here is whether or not Florida can run the ball?  I believe the answer is yes, and I think they will outgain Georgia on the ground in this game.  Florida has faced tougher run defenses #63 compared to #73 for Georgia in run defense, and their offense has faced a much tougher run defense schedule facing #56 run defense on average compared to Georgia who has faced #70.  Georgia ranks 73rd in yards per carry allowed, and hasn’t faced a ton of teams that excel at running the ball. Florida ranks 28th in running the ball and 56th at stopping the run, but they have been getting better with every week.

I mentioned the QB play of Fromm being the one advantage that Georgia had, but Georgia is not the same team as last year.  They have not protected Fromm or given him much time as they rank 81st in sack % allowed and that’s with facing an average pass rush ranking 83.5.  Here Florida comes in ranking 18th at getting to the QB. Feleipe Franks for Florida has taken care of the ball and the offensive line has done a great job at protecting him as they rank 32nd in pass protection efficiency and will go up against a Georgia defense that ranks 107th at getting to the QB.  

Florida also has the edge in special teams, and Georgia’ spunting game has been very shaky this season which could lead to a field position edge for Florida.  Florida also ranks 11th in TO margin having faced an average opponent ranking 62 in TO margin. Compare that with Georgia who ranks 41st having faced an opponent ranking 75th.  More than likely that tells us that Florida should win the TO battle if anything, and that makes sense as they have been really good at getting to the QB.

Connecticut +180 2% play

Last week I told you to close your eyes and take Uconn +34 at South Florida for our free pick winner which is now 37-13 ATS over my last 50 free college football plays.  Here I say Uconn will pull the outright upset at home. The weather on Saturday in Connecticut is calling for rain, winds gusting to 15mph, and the total has dropped 8.5 points from 74 to 65.5 despite two of the worst defenses facing off against each other.

This type of weather clearly favors the Uconn Huskies who actually have run the ball well ranking 42nd in yards per play thanks to a mobile QB.  Umass very poor stopping the run ranking 124th in the nation. On the flip side they are 109th in yards per carry and that has come against a very weak schedule with defenses ranking on average 75.43.  The strength of Umass offense is the passing game, and they’ll miss their veteran QB Ford in this game who has been downgraded to doubtful.

I mentioned these are two of the worst defenses in the nation, with Uconn sitting at #130 in yards per play allowed, and Umass at 125, but the big difference here is the strength of schedule that Uconn has faced.  On average they have faced an opponent offense that ranks #28th in the country in yards per play offense. I’m not shocked that their defense is 130th. They came off the bye last week and look a lot better as the game at South Florida was 7-7 at halftime.  Uconn catches a break here with the weather that benefits them in this one. Uconn won’t have a strong home crowd, but it is homecoming but the weather will likely keep most people away.

Northwestern +4.5 2.2% play

Wisconsin really has not proven anything to be a big road favorite against a division opponent fighting to get into the division lead.  Northwestern is always a solid under dog, now 8-0 ATS in their last 8. Wisconsin looked back to normal last week as they pounded Illinois 49-20, but I would argue otherwise, and we saw Northwestern look awful in a 18-15 win over Rutgers.

Northwestern has faced the #30 ranked schedule compared to Wisconsin who has faced #77.  They lose at home to BYU, and that looks much worse now. They were losing in the 4th quarter at Iowa and were lucky to come back and win by 11 in misleading fashion.  Their big win over Nebraska also misleading. This Northwestern team played Michigan much tighter in a 20-17 loss at home, and they went on the road and beat Michigan State by 10 points.  Their is something to be said about a team that plays a different brand of football than anyone else in the Big Ten. Northwestern throws the ball 60% of the time with their QB Clayton Thorson who is likely heading to the NFL next year.  Thorson threw 3 TD passes last year against Wisconsin on the road, and this year he goes up against a Wisconsin secondary that is really banged up. The weather looks ideal with only 6mph winds and no rain. Thorson should have a big day and Northwestern’s defense which is always a strength has played much better at home this year.

The big question for Northwestern is whether or not they can stop Wisconsin’s running game that ranks 63rd in yards per carry, and I would say yes.  Northwestern allowing 1.75 yards per carry less at home, and facing a one dimensional offense. Alex Hornibrook is just not a good QB. I really don’t know why he gets as much credit as he does, but Northwestern’s secondary should probably force a few turnovers in this game and if they do they’ll have a shot to pull the upset.

Purdue +8 w/ Texas A&M +7.5 4.4% NCAAF Teaser

Purdue +8 - I’m going with the better team here and I’m not expecting a “let down.”  Jeff Brohm is a very good coach, and Purdue is fighting to get to the Big Ten Championship, a real possibility right now.  MIchigan State’s injuries are just piling up, and they can’t run the ball ranking 120th in the country, and that will allow Purdue’s aggressive defense to force some mistakes from Brian Lewerke who has nobody to throw the ball to now that Felton Davis, his top target is out for the season.  Michigan State had defensive backs running routes and getting targets last week against Michigan.

Purdue is just the better team, and Michigan State won’t have enough offense against an under rated Purdue defense.  Purdue is very balanced in all aspects, and David Blough should have a big day much like Clayton Thorson did here a few weeks back as Thorson threw it all over the yard.  Purdue’s offensive scheme is very unique for the Big Ten, and they have arguably the most explosive player in the conference in Rondale Moore who is a mismatch here and is averaging 14 yards every time he touches the ball.

People are talking about the “let down” for Purdue, but what about Michigan State, their Big Ten aspirations are very dim after losing to big brother, and with all the injuries I can’t see the confidence is even close to the confidence on the other sideline with Purdue.  These teams may have the same record, but Purdue is literally a few plays away from being 7-0.

Texas A&M +7.5

The only thing that makes me nervous about this game is Miss State looked awful a week ago at LSU, and everyone is throwing them in the trash.  We did the same thing after they lost to Kentucky and Florida, but then backed them against Auburn, a big win 23-9, but we have seen Auburn trending in the other direction.  Here Texas A&M off the bye matches up very well with Miss State.

Miss State could be without their top RB HIll who is questionable and that means NIck Fitzgerald will be asked to do even more following a physical game at LSU last week.  He goes up against a Texas A&M defense that is legit against the run ranking 14th in the country despite facing a challenging schedule. On average the Aggies have faced a rushing YPC offense ranking 27th.  This spells trouble for Miss State who rushes for 7.13 ypc in their wins with 14TD’s but just 3.72, and 1 TD in their 3 losses to run defenses ranked 59th, 56th, and 14th.

Texas A&M has a stiff task though going on the road to play a night game against a very good defense.  Their is one spot that the Aggies might have an advantage and that’s Kellen Mond. Mond has had some very good games this year including 430 yards passing against Clemson 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s, and against South Carolina before the bye he threw for 353, 1 TD and 0 INT”s vs. South Carolina.  Clemson ranks 17th in opposing QB rating, and South Carolina ranks 38th. Miss State ranks 14th, but they have yet to face a QB that can throw the ball with an average opponent QB rating of 78.67. A&M also ranks #3 in the country in special teams to Miss State’s 23rd ranking.

Army pk 3.3% play

For Eastern Michigan this is their 9th game in 9 weeks, and the idea that Army looks ahead to the Air Force game is just not true.  They beat Temple and Wake Forest the last two years the week before Air Force, and MOnken has called Eastern Michigan one of the best teams they’ve played all year.

Actually Eastern Michigan is much like Army in the fact that they play hard, but Eastern Michigan has not yet figured out how to win the close games while Army has been very good in one possession games over their last 20.  Monken is a very underrated coach for Army and he has this team rolling right now. He will sell the poor effort last week in the 4th quarter and Army will get off to a great start and dominate time of possession.

We all know Army will run 88% of the time, and they are going up against an Eastern Michigan run defense ranking 101st in yards per carry allowed.  In last year’s matchup they allowed Army to roll for 413 yards. Army’s starting QB is ? for this game, but the Sophomore Cam Thomas should be able to step in no problem as this is a system, and Thomas had 137 yards rushing a week ago vs. Miami Ohio defense that ranks 30th against the run.  Army also enjoys edges in penalties per game by 3/game, special teams, and third downs where they are +23% compared to Eastern Michigan who is -6% allowing 41% third down conversions on defense.

Western Michigan -5 2.2% play 

This is a bad spot for Toledo, who is down this year.  They have a quick turnaround (played Saturday) and have to go on the road after their defense was on the field for 96 plays, and 40 of the 60 minutes.  Western Michigan who loves to run the ball should be able to control this game, as they rank 27th in yards per carry going up against a Toledo defense that ranks 111th in defending the run.   Western Michigan is also pretty good throwing the ball ranking 38th in QB rating while Toledo has not been able to protect their QB ranking 11th in QB Sack % allowed.  That's not a good situation to be in going on the road against a team that ranks 42nd in sack %. 

South Alabama +13

Does this sound like a team you want to back as a double digit road favorite?  In their last game with a backup QB that they are with for the rest of the season they lost 3 TO’s, had 10 penalties, and went 4-15 on third down.  Troy has played  on average a 114th ranked defense, and they are still holding onto their victory at Nebraska which looks less and less impressive, and Nebraska was without their starting QB Adrian Martinez and their backup is a huge downgrade.

Meanwhile South Alabama comes in under the radar and have faced a very challenging schedule, but with 10 days to prepare and a weak opponent last time out to get their confidence going should be in good position to pull the upset.  Take a look at South Alabama’s schedule they have already played 4 road games, and they have played 3 of the best group of 5 teams in the nation in App State, Memphis, and LA Tech.  They then had to face a triple option Georgia Southern team in their 3rd straight road game.  I am not surprised this team struggled one bit.  Their offense has struggled ranking 127th in yards per play, but that has come against an average defensive opponent ranked #49.5 in defense compare that with Troy’s 114thranking and QB Evan Orth should have a quality game here.  Orth is completing 67.2% of his passes has 7 TD passes and 3 INT’s on the year.  South Alabama’s strength of schedule is the hidden gem here.  They look like this awful 2-5 team facing a 5-2 team, but have faced teams who are top 50 in a lot of categories.  They have also faced on average a top 50 YPP offense at 49.67, opponent rushing ypc of 49.33, an opponent QB Rating of 50.33, an average QB rating defense of 50.33.

Nevada +3 3.3% Play

This is Hawaii's 9th straight game traveling back and forth from Island can take it's toll.  Here they get a Nevada team hungry for a win after facing the conference's two best teams in Fresno and Boise State.  They got their QB Ty Gangi back in last week's game against Boise State and he looked excellent throwing for more than 300 yards.  Nevada here has by far the better defense when we look at the fact that they rank 72nd in yards per play allowed facing an average offense ranking 67.8 in yards per play.  Compare that with Hawaii who ranks 102nd and has faced opponents ranking 102.5 in yards per play on offense.

Both of these teams want to pass the ball, but it may come down to the running game, and Nevada has a distinct advantage here.  Nevada ranks 53rd in rushing yards per carry and will go up against a defense that ranks 83rd, that defense has not seen many teams that can run the ball on average 91st in ypc.  On the flip side Nevada is 38th in stopping the run.  I think this will allow Nevada to get Hawaii into some third and longs, and they have a good enough pass rush to give Hawaii issues and force some TO's.  Hawaii QB's have been sacked 21 times this year and they rank 77th in sack % allowed.  That has come against very weak pass rushes ranking on average 93rd in sack %.  Nevada comes in at #59, led by NFL Prospect Malik Reed, 5 sacks on the year.  There is a reason why Hawaii ranks 100th in TO margin.  They haven't been able to protect McDonald, and that's been against poor defenses.  On average Hawaii has faced a defense ranking 88 in yards per play, 100th in opposing QB rating.  Add it all up and I think Nevada will be a live dog. 

Kentucky -11

If you have been following me this year you know I am a fan of Kentucky backing them against Florida and Texas A&M.  This is a great matchup for Kentucky coming off a bye where Vanderbilt is off back to back physical games in SEC play where they were dominated at the line of scrimmage.  Kentucky will also get another night game at home, and the weather favors their style of play as there will be 15mph winds.

Vanderbilt’s strength is their QB play of Kyle Shurmur as they throw the ball 53% of the time.  I don’t see him being as effective here. For one he is going up against the 8th ranked pass defense, and 29th ranked pass rush, but the wind will keep this game more on the ground.  Vanderbilt is 58th in yards per carry and have faced a run defense ranked 58.3 on average. Here they face the #22 defense which has been tested having faced #48.4.

Kentucky, off the bye and not only do they have a dominating running back in Benny Snell, but they have a mobile QB in Terry Wilson which is something that Vanderbilt has not faced this year.  Kentucky will run the ball over 65% of the time which is their average so their game plan in the weather won’t have to change much. They’ll go up against a Vanderbilt run defense that ranks 86th.  This running game that is 16th in yards per carry is well tested having faced #54.8 on average.

These two have common opponents in SEC play and Vanderbilt played both of those games at home against Florida and South Carolina.  It’s obvious that Kentucky is the better team as they outgained those two opponents by 120 yards while Vanderbilt was outgained by 490 yards, and Kentucky has to play Florida on the road.  Vanderbilt also -24% success rate in the Florida game last week so their 10 point loss was actually really misleading as they should have lost by more.

Vanderbilt has struggled big time in conference play, and we are still getting value here on Kentucky in my opinion who should control the line of scrimmage.  VAnderbilt in 3 SEC games between Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina were outgained on the ground 261-112 on average. Compare that with Kentucky who faced Florida Miss State, South Carolina and they outgained them on the ground on average of 242-104.  Expect 300+ yards on the ground for Kentucky as they wear out Vanderbilt in the second half and win this one by 3TD’s.

Miss State +6.5 2.2% play 

Both of these teams are pretty similar in the fact that they want to run the ball and try to do so at 60% of the time.  Neither team has an efficient QB, and that makes the running game that much more important. I think MIss State has the advantage being fresher off the bye while LSU just played 3 SEC games in a row with the last 2 coming against physical opponents Georgia and Florida.  LSU’s run defense which will be the key here showed some vulnerabilities against Florida where they gave up over 200 yards. Miss State held Florida to 118 yards. The only team able to run the ball on Miss State was Kentucky, and Kentucky has a much better rushing attack and a mobile QB in Terry Wilson.  Nick Fitzgerald was finally turned loose with 20+ carries against Auburn, and since they had the bye I see the same thing here as Fitzgerald has to be fresh. Nobody ran for more rushing yards against LSU last year than MIss State who ran for 285 on them.

Let’s take a look at the how LSU and Miss State stack up in the running game.  Miss State ranking 6th in yards per carry have faced an average opponent defensive ypc of 68.4, here they face LSU’s #48th rank, and LSU’s rushing defense has only faced an average opponent ranking 55th in rushing offense.  This is the best rushing offense they have seen all year. LSU’s rushing ranks 43rd, and they have gotten that done against #58 defense, and here they’ll place a battle tested MIss State run defense that ranks 42nd. Miss State has faced a bevy of quality rushing offenses ranking on average 31.6.  When we look at their loss to Kentucky we can see Kentucky is far better, and has faced a far tougher rushing offense/rushing defense schedule than LSU. It’s understandable that Miss State struggled in that game. Miss State’s defense has the front speed that can set the edge led by MOntez Sweat. Although Joe Burrow ran for 60+ yards last week he is not a threat, and the majority of that came on one play.  

I also expect Miss State will be able to throw a few new wrinkles into this game off a bye.  Joe Moorehead also a first year head coach and that bye is always more valuable to a first year coach following the bye.

Wake Forest +10.5 4.4% play

What has Florida State proven to show that they should be a double digit favorite?  They nearly upset Miami, I get that, but they only had 200 yards in that game of total offense.  Florida State should have lost to an awful Louisville team teh week before that, and they were dominated on the road against a slightly above average Syracuse team.  Meanwhile Wake Forest comes off a game where they were embarrassed by a hungry Clemson team. They too are off a bye, and have played Florida State well and tight the last few years.

Wake Forest, by far has faced the stronger schedule having faced Notre Dame, Clemson, and BC.  Florida State has one of the worst offensive lines in the country. They have faced an average run defense ranking 95.4, and they rank 128th in the country in rushing yards per carry.  Many will point out WAke Forest’s 126th ranking, but they have faced a lot of great rushing attacks thus far ranking on average 61st in yards per carry. They have only given up 2 rushing TD’s all season if you take away the Notre Dame & Clemson games where they gave up 12.

Offensively I think Wake Forest has balance and their up-tempo style should allow them to move the ball and score points in this game.  The Florida State defense is good vs. the run, but they have faced teams that can’t run the ball, and they are giving up a ton of yards on defense ranking 51st in QB rating defense they have faced on average a QB rated offense ranking 88.4.  This game means much more to Wake Forest who wants to get to a bowl game Dave Clawson 16-11-1 ATS following a SU loss. Meanwhile Florida State has a game against Clemson at home next.

Buffalo -1 3.3% play

We did not get the best of this line unfortunately, but still feel great about Buffalo here. There will be 15mph winds, and some light rain, and the total has dropped 6 points. I have Buffalo a favorite here, and I expect they will win.

Auburn -3.5 2.2% play

I like Auburn here who we are obviously buying low on after they lost back to back games, and everyone is rumoring that Gus Malzahn is out if he loses this game.  I think he gets a full effort from his team against a team that may just not care. Ole MIss can’t go to a bowl game, they just lost their #2WR in DK Metcalf to a neck injury for the season, and they have struggled on offense when they face elite defenses.  Auburn’s defense once was elite, and you could see them play that way here on Saturday. Auburn can still stop the run ranking 35th, and against they rank 25th. I think they can double cover A.J Brown and force Jordan Ta’amu to beat them another way.

On the flip side I think Auburn can give this a full effort before going into their bye.  I’m not going to go crazy about their loss to Tennessee last week who was off a bye themselves.  Jarret Stidham who I have criticized on my podcast just got down throwing for 300 yards for the first time.  He is now facing an Ole MIss secondary that ranks 90th in QB Rating defense, and that rating comes against an average opponent QB rating of 75.16.  Expecting a big game from Stidham who should finally have the balance of the running game as Ole Miss ranks 91st vs. the run. I think we have motivation on the side of Auburn, and we are getting line value for Auburn’s recent play, and their offense finally should get going here.

Michigan State +7 3.3% play

This could not set up any better for the Spartans who are getting disrespected all over the place despite being 8-2 in the last 10 meetings, 10-0 ATS.  The weather is the bigger reason why I'm backing the Spartans on Saturday as it's going to be rainy, and windy, and Jim Harbough already struggled to come up with an innovative offensive play in regular weather.  He has also been super conservative in these types of games which always tends to come down to a field goal, and the total here is 41 points which gives us more value on the +7 for the home dog.

Michigan State has very quietly played the tougher schedule having faced an average defense ranking 50th in yards per play, compared to Michigan's offense that has faced #68.  Michigan State's defense on average has faced #50.8 offense ypp, while Michigan has faced 56.2.  Michigan State's weakness right now is in the secondary, but I don't know how much we can see Michigan taking advantage of it.  Right now they feel really good about their running game hammering it 60% of the time, and the weather should be a big reason why they don't challenge Michigan State's secondary. 

Michigan State's run defense is #1 in the country and tested facing an average offense ranking 53.8.  That's better than Michigan's run defense that ranks an impressive #12 against a #56.  Michigan State's offense however can be more creative, and take advantage of some of the aggressive play calling of Don Brown's defense.  We have seen it before with the Spartans and it's just an example of better coaching.  They also have the WR in Felton Davis who can make plays.  If you recall SMU's James Proche had 11 receptions for 166 yards against Michigan's secondary.

Honestly, what has Michigan really proven other than the fact that Jim Harbough is a bully, and he can beat bad teams.  They struggled against Northwestern, so did Michigan State.  They struggled against Notre Dame with extra preparation and a lot of pressure.  They have more pressure here, and that Notre Dame team was extremely one dimensional with their QB at the time in Wimbush.  Michigan State has 2 losses, I'm giving them a pass for the 4th quarter melt down at Arizona State where it was 97 degrees and the game didn't end until 3pm local time.  Northwestern also came back in the 4th quarter chucking the ball 47 times for 373 yards, and unless the weather changes I don't see Harbough letting Shea Patterson do the same thing.  I'm more impressed with their win at Penn State, who was off a bye last week.  Michigan State will continue to play the little brother card, and it will work again.

Maryland +275 1.5% Play 

I think there is good value here when you factor in that Iowa won't be able to take advantage of their obvious offensive strength which is passing the ball.  Iowa's running game is 87th in the country and they'll be going up against Maryland's 13th ranked run defense.  There will be 24mph winds in this game, and this game is going to come down to who can run better, and I'm back Maryland here with some excellent value as they rank 7th in rushing yards per carry going up against an obviously good Iowa run defense which ranks 11th, but Maryland obviously has the athletes here. 

Arizona State +2.5 2.2% Play

This play is a late release, because I was holding out for a 3, but only one shop has it, but I feel comfortable with Arizona State here, and think they pull the upset.  Stanford has a lot of weaknesses right now with their only strength being the QB play of KJ Costello.  Costello, however has been sacked a lot ranking 83rd in sack % for a team that passes the ball 55% of the time that is not a good stat.  What makes it worse is the fact that Stanford has gone against bad pass rush teams's ranking 74.8 in sack % on average.  Well, Arizona State and their unique 3-3-5 defense is fast, and they get to the QB ranking 22nd in sack %, and at home they are even more dangerous. 

Last year Stanford needed 307 yards rushing and they still only won 34-24 at home against Arizona State.  This year Bryce Love won't be 100%, and they are not going to push him, and they rank 125th in yards per carry.  That's with what was one of the best offensive lines, but they are allowing too many plays behind the line of scrimmage.  Arizona State ranks 46th in rushing defense, and if they can do what they typically do at home at night, in 82 degrees they should come out victorious. Also, don't sleep on Arizona State's offense, the two offensive guys that were questionable in Wilkins and Harry will play here.  Worth mentioning is the fact that both teams are off extra rest, but Stanford last year was awful in this situation going 0-3 ATS and 2-3 straight up.  Their only win was a 15-14 win on a Thursday night at Oregon State, yuck.  

Virginia +7 4.4% play

Virginia was in their second road game last year at Miami and led 28-14 late, before Miami scored the final 30 points to win 44-28 in misleading fashion a year ago as Miami was outgained by 79 yards.  Virginia simply ran out of gas which is something they will not due this Saturday in a RARE night game in Virginia off a bye.

Virginia is actually expecting a good crowd here hosting Miami who they have gone 3-1 straight up since 2010 at home.  They’ll be off a bye while Miami is coming off an emotional victory against rival Florida State, a game they trailed 27-7.  Miami just 2-3 following Florida State game the last 5 years and I expect Virginia might pull the upset.

They have the better QB here in dual threat Bryce Perkins leading an offense that ranks 31st in yards per play.  Perkins has 1603 total yards, 63% completion %, 17 total TD’s, and just 4 interceptions. Miami’s new QB Perry did throw for 4 TD’s, but completed just 13 of his 31 passes, 51% for the season.  He will have issues going up against Virginia’ underrated defense which ranks 42nd in adjusted D having faced 49th adjusted offense ranking. Miami’s defense that has dominated has actually faced a weak offensive schedule.  Their opponents on average rank 78.4 in yards per play compare that with what Virginia has had to contend with with opponents ranking 52nd in yards per play offense.

Virginia is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a bye, and Bronco Mendenhall as a head coach is 17-11 straight up.  Watch out for the Turnover Toaster in this rare night game where it will be 51 degrees in Virginia. That’s not the ideal environment for these Florida boys.

Iowa State +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Iowa State 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a dog, and they are a significant step up in competition for West Virginia.  West Virginia is not #6 ranked team just like LSU was not #5 going on the road as a favorite a week ago and losing at Florida.  This is the Big 12 version of that with Iowa State playing very well despite injuries at QB position Iowa State managed to upset Oklahoma State last week on the road.  They also played Oklahoma, TCU, and Iowa to 10 pints or less.

Iowa State inserted mobile QB Brock Purdy and against a good defense in Oklahoma State he put up 400+ yards and 5 TD”s, 4 through the air.  Iowa State’s offense is very under rated in my opinion as they rank 83rd in yards per play, but have faced a tough schedule facing defenses ranked on average #36 in yards per play allowed.  Here they face another good defense in West Virginia #25, but West Virginia has not played faced a top 35 team yet.

West Virginia’s offense has dominated behind Will Grier, but look at the defenses they have faced.  On average ranking 102nd yards per play allowed, 92nd average in QB rating defense, and on average they have faced a rushing defense ranking 99.5.  The rushing defense is what really is a red flag, because it appears West Virginia is completely one dimensional on offense and that won’t win on the road.  They rank 73rd in yards per carry and they faced on average a 99.5 ranked defense. Here they face Iowa State’s 13th ranked rushing defense. What does that mean?

Unless West Virginia throws early they are going to set themselves up on third and longs and Iowa State ranks 32nd in sack %.  They can put pressure on the QB and force mistakes. West Virginia is 99th in TO Margin, and Grier turned the ball over 3 times inside the 30.  Iowa State will be fine giving up the yards to West Virginia, but are stingy in the red zone allowing just 50% TD percentage. Last year they gave up a ton of yards, but held West Virginia to 20 points.  This is a night game in Ames with a great home crowd looking for an upset before going into their bye.

Louisiana Tech -10.5 3.3% play

This is a hidden gem in my opinion as UTSA is off 3 misleading victories over arguably the three worst teams in college football, Rice, UTEP, Texas STate who are a combined 0-14 vs. FBS.  The strength of schedule for UTSA can’t get worse at #126, and their offense ranks #130 having faced an average defense ranking #91 in yards per play. How is that possible? Here they are stepping up in competition in a big way and it’s just a bad match-up.

UTSA can’t run the ball ranking #119 having faced a defenses that rank #97.5 on average.  So they have turned to their QB more often than not passing the ball 53% of the time, and they rank #127 in QB Rating.  #127 is against an average defense ranking #83.8 and here they face a pass defense from Louisiana Tech that ranks #24.

Louisiana TEch’s offense will have success putting up yards and points in my opinion as they step down in competition in a major way.  QB J’mar Smith while they rank 103rd in QB Rating has faced the #36 on average pass defense. Here they face #116. The road environment won’t bother him as they have already played 3 road games.  J’mar Smith has 9 TD’s and 5 INT’s which is actually quite impressive given the strength of schedule they have faced. We are getting some line value here as well as La Tech just lost at UAB 7-28. Louisiana Tech will score 30+ points here, and should be enough for an easy cover.

Purdue -10.5 2.2% play

Purdue in their largest away favorite role since 2007, but for good reason.  They come fresh off a bye here needing another win, and the matchup is favorable.  First of all Purdue’s defense which was supposed to take a step back this year has played very well of late.  The strength of the defense is getting to the QB and stopping the run. Illinois strength is running the ball and staying out of third and long and I expect they may struggle.  When you look at Illinois running game they rank 11th in yards per carry, but they have faced the 89th ranked run defense on average.

Purdue going up against a very good Boston College rushing game held that one dimensional attack to 7 points at home.  Illinois also getting more % of tickets this week after they looked really good last week, but that was against Rutgers.  Purdue is a Big Ten team on the rise with a top flight offense under Jeff Brohm. Illinois ranking 110th in yards per play allowed will face Purdue’s #16th ranked offense, an offense that can throw it and run it.  Purdue will throw it more, and Illinois can’t get to the QB ranking 116th in sack % and if you can’t get to the QB you are going to give up a ton of yards.

The pace of this game should be quick, and Illinois really does not slow it down enough for me to want to back them as a home dog.  Even against Penn State at home as a +28 they lost after leading by 3 late. Purdue is not a team to take their foot off the gas so 10 point spread is not as high as it seems in typical situations.

Duke +8.5 Teaser

A lot of people are picking Duke here to pull the upset which makes me a bit nervous, but I do feel like we have great value with the teaser.  Duke, of course very familiar with the option, and has done great against it going 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. an option team which includes 4-0 ATS run vs. Georgia Tech covering those games by an average of 16 points per game.  Duke also gets the extra week to prepare. GEorgia Tech who has the #4 ranked offensive attack and runs the ball 83% of the time will keep this clock ticking. They have gotten there facing the average #88 rushing defense, but here they face Duke off a bye who ranks #14.

Meanwhile Georgia Tech off two blow out victories and feeling great about themselves, but this is a game they know they need to win.  Duke has faced the tougher schedule, and they have the QB Daniel Jones to make all the plays. Jones broke his clavicle which led to losses for Duke and the extra time off definitely helps him heal and be 100%.  Duke will line up and face the #93 ranked defense, which is accurate with a #94 adjusted defense ranking. They are #79 vs. the run, and #71 s. The pass, and #107 at getting to the QB Despite facing teams that don’t protect their QB.  Jones will have a clean pocket and when he does he’s smart and they won’t turn the ball over to give Georgia Tech to win this by double digits.

This total has dropped 5 points, these teams are familiar with each other and both want to run the ball first.  Expect a tight lower scoring game and that means the extra 6 points are just far more valuable here.

Georgia -1

LSU is a popular dog this week that I am fading.  LSU has impressive wins on their resume with Auburna on the road and Miami to open the season, but those wins are becoming less and less impressive.  Their defense which ranks #39 has yet to see a balanced offense all year. The offenses they did face could either run it or pass it but not both. Here comes Georgia who can do both and do it efficiently.  Georgia players already calling this game the start of their season, and LSU proved last week when they gave up 215 yards rushing to Florida that they can be run on.

Jake Fromm is probably the most underrated player in the nation in my opinion.  He is a poised QB that as a freshman led his team to the National Championship. This year he is fighting off a “better prospect” in Justin Fields and just playing great.  Death Valley at 3:30 kickoff won’t phase him at all and he’ll lead this team to a victory. My #’s have this game at 13.3 point favorite for Georgia. I like the teaser value we are getting more here.

LSU has been a popular pick and many are pointing to Georgia’s schedule and their lack of defensive pressure. Georgia ranking #117 in sack %, but they have faced an opponenet sack % allowed ranking on average #39.8.  LSU is not getting to the QB either ranking #94 ins ack % and they have faced teams that just don’t protect the QB Ranking #74.6 in protection, but LSU still has not been able to create pressure.

The only way LSU wins this game is if they force turnovers and I just don’t see how that is possible with Fromm out there.  Georgia is 10th in the nation in TO margin, and it is far more likely that LSU’s QB Burrow turns the ball over. LSU in 3 conference games have 5 TO’s while Georgia is +4 TO margin in their 4 conference games.  Georgia also +17.5% TD percentage in the red zone on the season compared to LSU who is struggling at -6.5%. Fade the popular dog LSU as they step up in competition.