Southern Miss / Washington U55 4.4* play

When Southern Miss is held under 4 yards per carry this year they average just 18 points per game.  This is just the third time they are facing a high quality defense that can stop the run and the pass.  The prior two times they scored 10 and 16 points.  This offense is known for it’s explosive stats, but they really are not as good, but we are getting a high total because their defense gave up a bunch of points in the conference championship, and Washington has scored 52 and 45 the last 2 games against two of the worst defenses in the PAC 12.  The PAC 12 was absolute trash this year in defense.

Washington’s offense will struggle at times in this game as Southern Miss is ranked 40th in yards per play defense, and has played well with some power 5 transfer defensive players.  Washington against top 83 yards per play defenses averaged just 19.8 points per game and they only faced 5 of those teams.  How bad was the PAC 12 in defense this year?  USC and Stanford were ranked 69th, and 67th in the nation in yards per play allowed.  Part of that is scheduling and the PAC 12 offenses being better, but Washington does not have anything near an elite offense.  They also are traveling over 2,000 miles for this game, and I think Southern Miss will play with a lot of intensity early in this game on the defensive side of the ball.  We saw it in their conference championship game against an elite offense in Western Kentucky.  They held them to 7 points throughout the first 27 minutes of that game, before things went south.  Washington is not going to put their foot on the gas like Western Kentucky did if they have the opportunity.  That’s just not their style as they rank 95th in plays per game.

Washington State -2.5 3.3* play

Miami is on a roll winning 4 of their last 5 games entering this bowl game which will be played a lot closer to home than Washington State.  Washington State comes into this game off a loss in the Apple Cup but they were without their best player Luke Falk, at QB who was out with a concussion, but will be back for this game.  Really for me I see more to play for from the Cougars who will be playing in their first bowl game in 12 years.  This was a very good road team, and the PAC 12 has flat out dominated the ACC going 9-1 in bowl games since 2007.  Since 2000 they have gone 21-8 in regular season + bowl games.  I’m not that high on the PAC 12 myself especially this season, but they are a better overall conference going 20-18 the last 5 years in bowl games + 2-0 this year compared to the ACC which is just 19-26.

Okay, so history is sort of irrelevant as these two teams still have to line up and play football.  Washington State will throw the ball 75% of the time, but when they can run the ball 4 yards or more they are 4-0.  Miami has all sorts of troubles stopping the run and I think that happens as Washington State will control this game chipping away.  Miami is a defense that does not give up big plays, but will give up 5 yards anytime you want it and I don’t see them coming up with a different game plan with an interim coach.

These two teams are actually quite similar in what they do well and what they don’t do well and for Miami it comes down to the QB, but I don’t see him having that great of a game against a Washington State defense that is much improved allowing 10 fewer points per game than the year before.  Their pass defense has only allowed 11 TD’s this year and they rank top 40 in havoc rate.  Kaya has been very good at not turning the ball over, but they are just 36% on third down, and 50% TD’s in the red zone where this game will likely be decided.  Typically I’d be concerned with TO margin here, but Miami is ranked 89th in sack % which means good things for this Cougars offense.  Miami played similar type of team in Cinci as far as passing attempts and lost by 11.  I think the Cougars get a big win for Mike Leach and their running game behind Gerrad Wicks, and Jamal Morron might be the reason why.

San Diego State -1.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

I’ll take the Aztecs in this game who do not have to travel nearly as far as Cincinnati for the Hawaii Bowl.  I also think the Bearcats programs is in shamble’s a bit, and having to travel to Hawaii with a young team is not going to help.  For San Diego State they have already made this trip this year and did so in great fashion.  I have been impressed by Rocky Long’s quotes the week they went to Hawaii and how he had his team prepared and I expect nothing different here.  It also does not hurt that this matchup is something I also love.

First of all both starting QB’s are out for this game, and Cinci who relies much more on their QB are going to have a very tough time against San Diego State’s defense that runs a unique 3-3-5 defense that I’m not sure Hayden Moore has seen much of.  Moore also will take a lot of chance and very prone to turning the ball over.  In fact Cinci is one of the worst teams in TO margin ranking 124th, while San Diego State come in ranked 1st overall.  It’s a huge advantage for San Diego State that will most likely show up in the game.  Cinci also going to have a hard time running the ball against Rocky Long’s bunch as they ranked 8th in run defense.  Cincinnati is 0-5 losing by an average margin of 14 when they don’t rush for over 150 yards.

So I mentioned earlier that Cinci is in shambles.  There are all kinds of rumors about Tuberville retiring, and their OC moving on to Kentucky.  Along with that is the fact that their starting QB Gunner Kiel, a 5 star leader on this team wont’ be traveling due to personal reasons that have been announced as a pain killer addiction.  Really sad story, but this team is 0-5 vs. the top 50 in the nation.  San Diego State, a team that will rely on the run heavily and won’t be hurt by the fact they will be without their QB as much.  Donnell Pumphrey, a dynamic back should be the MVP of this game or I’ll be shocked as the Bearcats have allowed over 5 yards per carry on the season.  I also like the fact that San Diego State is less penalized on the season, ranked 6th in special teams (Cinci – 74th), +22 in tackles for loss compared to -12, and +14 in sacks compared to -10 for the Bearcats.  This could be another blow out for the Hawaii Bowl. 

Georgia Southern +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

This is Georgia Southern’s first bowl game and while they have a tough task against Bowling Green’s up tempo high flying offense I think they have the right match up here.  Georgia Southern is the #1 rushing offense in the nation, and 10th in time of possession.  Bowling Green has struggled against all 4 top 50 rushing offenses they have faced giving up TD’s, and a lot of rushing yards while going 2-2 in those games.  I think there is a lot more for Georgia Southern to play for in their first bowl game.

Georgia Southern won the Sun Belt last year, but were held out of a bowl at 9-3 because it was their first year as an FBS team.  When you look at what this team has done over the last 3 years you should be pretty impressed.  In 2013 they beat the Florida Gators, in 2014, they lost to Georgia Tech and NC State by a combined 5 points, and as I mentioned won the Sun Belt.  This year they go 8-4, but crush the MAC’s own Western Michigan 43-17, and they lose in OT to Georgia.  They come off a loss to Georgia State and that’s why they are getting no respect in this game, but there is something to say about a triple option team and Georgia Southern runs it arguably better than anyone.  There is a good reason why this team did well in their first year in the Sun Belt, just like Navy did with their triple option in their first year in the AAC.

I don’t see Bowling Green being able to prepare for this triple option.  There is absolutely no history facing the triple option, and Bowling Green is without their head coach Dino Babers who head to Syracuse.  This team is not content with the MAC Championship, but I don’t see how well they will be prepared for the triple option especially when you consider their defensive coordinator will be the interim coach here and he too is going to Syracuse.  I guess I should have a bit more respect for a coach that sticks around for the kids, but I don’t see him giving it 100% in preparation.

There are a few other things to like about Georgia Southern as they are very opportunistic grabbing 15 interceptions, and they have a significant advantage in penalties nearly penalized 4 fewer times and special teams ranking 47th while Bowling Green ranks 119th in special teams efficiency.  Both teams are really good at what they do best which is offense.  Bowling Green is more balanced, but likes to do it more with the pass while Georgia Southern will run it down your throat and I feel like they can really take Bowling Green out of their rhythm here considering they dominated with over 33 minutes in time possession compared to under 30 for Bowling Green who ranked 92nd in TOP.

Temple -2 3.3* play

I like Temple in this game, because of the coaching situation as Matt Rhule signs a 6 year contract, and all of his quotes lead me to believe that this game is huge for this program.  A win and it’s a top 25 finish for Temple and an 11 win season which could be huge.  For Toledo they have a new coach here after Matt Campbell heads to Iowa State, and when you look at this team’s resume they really were fortunate earlier in the season, and just not that impressive late. 

Temple has 3 losses and each loss came when the opposing QB ran the ball.  Greg Ward ran for 148 yards, Quinton Flowers for 90, and Deshaun Kizer for 143.  Phillip Ely is not a running QB for Toledo, and I think Temple is going to be able to stop this Toledo rushing offense which really puts them in a difficult spot when that happens.  Toledo will have their hands full on defense facing Jahad Thomas who will be healthier than he’s been in a while and P.J. Walker has proven that he continues to improve as the season has gone along.  There is just too much motivation for Temple and they have played in many big games and have played well.  Toledo never seems to be able to get over the hump.  I like the edge Temple has in the red zone along with what they have done ranking 26th in special teams efficiency to Toledo’s 82nd ranking and they are far less penalized as well.  This is a big game for Rhule and Temple who have a lot of recruits in Florida.  We will see how it turns out. 

Akron/Utah State U47 2.2* play

Both of these teams like to slow the game down, run the ball and play defense.  I would lean towards Utah State, although I don’t think it’s a good thing that Chuckie Keeton is coming back for this game.  Utah State has gone 9-2 vs. the MAC over their career and have beaten better MAC teams in bowl games over the last few years including Northern Illinois 21-14 and Toledo 41-15.  However, I like the under a lot more, because both teams can defend the run, and both offenses have had major issues in the red zone and scoring when they haven’t been able to run the ball.

Neither team has elite at running the ball, but these are two tough run defenses.  When Akron can’t run for more than 160 yards they are averaging just 9.16 points per game which has happened in 6 of their games.  Worse run defenses have given Akron issues, and Utah State has faced much better rushing offenses.  Akron is 91st in pace while Utah State comes in at 101st.  Utah State averages just 16.33 ppg when they don’t rush for more than 160 yards with a high of 28.  This offense has actually played worse under Keeton this year who will look to wrap up his career with a win over Akron.  Also note this is more of a home game for Utah State who is used to playing on the blue turf in Boise.  Less than 250 miles away while Akron has to travel 1700+.

L.A. Tech -1 5.5* NCAAF POD

There is no question that Tech comes out of the better conference in C-USA vs. the Sunbelt.  Conference USA was 4-1 in bowl games last year and 15-6 over the last 4 bowl seasons while the Sun Belt went 1-2 last year and 6-6 over the last 4 years.  There is no question Tech comes from the better conference that regularly plays more power 5 opponents (25 this season).  Tech also comes off two very ugly games where they did not come close to covering the spread, missing by 23 and 39 points.  The market has adjusted quite a bit for this show down in New Orleans.

Arkansas State ran the table in the Sun Belt and to me that just shows you how bad this conference has been which has led to some inflated numbers for Arkansas State who likes to run the ball 61% of the time with Gordon at RB, and Fredi Knighten at QB.  In wins they rush for a 5.65 yards per carry while losses they average just 2.41.  This team has played some pretty terrible run defenses along the way including 4 that rank at the bottom ranking 120th, 121st, 126th, and 127th.  Today they face LA Tech who is built to stop the run ranking 12th in the country led by future NFL DT – Vernon Butler.  In Arkansas State’s 3 games against run stopping units they lost, and LA Tech’s 13th ranking in yds per carry allowed should be enough to get the job done.

L.A. Tech also has an explosive offense that will key on not turning the ball over.  They lost big in their division championship against Southern Miss by turning the ball over 7 times.  That’s especially important against Arkansas State who has lived on the turnover.  If L.A. Tech protects the ball they win this game going away by double digits.  I’m betting they will when you consider 33% of their seasons 21 turnovers came in one game.  Jeff Driskel has been great all year, and Kenneth Dixon is one of the best RB’s in the country that nobody knows about with 83 career rushing TD’s.  This team is excited to be here and should win this game.

Ohio +7.5 2.2* play Ohio had a tougher schedule this season and I still don’t trust the Sun Belt to produce crazy results during bowl season especially at more than a TD favorite for a first timer like App State. The MAC typically gets tougher match ups in these bowl games and has gone 8-14 the last 4 years which means they are regularly sending 5 teams to a bowl game where the Sun Belt is only sending 3. App State played two team with a pulse on their schedule in Clemson and Arkansas State and lost to both. Ohio has covered 6 of their last 7 games against the Sun Belt, and App State has lost their last 2 against the MAC. Frank Solich is a very good coach and will have his team well prepared for this game particularly the run defense that has been inconsistent. Ohio played their best football down the stretch winning their last 3 games including a road victory over Northern Illinois. I expect them to be in this game late with just 14 turnovers on the season, a Sr. QB in Vick leading them and a lot of excitement for being back in a bowl game I don’t see how they don’t give it everything they have.

Utah/BYU U51.5 3.3* play

This is an old rivalry game, perhaps the biggest ever.  They called it the Holy War which should make this game pretty interesting for your standard early bowl.  This one also will be played in Las Vegas, and a lot of sharp money is coming in on BYU.  Couple things going on here with Utah who probably is not excited to be going back here, but when they are in bowl games Kyle Whittingham has had a lot of success especially playing defense.  BYU’s Bronco Mendenhall also not a stranger to success, but is leaving for Virginia after this game.  It’s hard to get a real feel for how his players are going to respond in his last game as coach.  On average these are grown men so you expect them to respond pretty well or at least better than an 18 or 19 year old would.

Strength of schedule is no comparison as Utah clearly faced a tougher schedule, but the 4 common opponents they faced 3 of 4 at home while BYU had to travel in 3 of the 4. I truly feel like Utah is going to have a difficult time moving the ball against BYU without Devonte Booker who is out for this game.  Without Booker this offense has really struggled scoring just 29 total points in 2 games combined at home against teams allowing 31.6ppg on the road and 23.  BYU is only allowing 21.8 ppg and has the front 7 to continue to stop Utah who likes to run the ball 60% of the time.  Even though Joe Williams was effective down the stretch this is not a dynamic offense to begin with and I see them struggling against a highly motivated BYU team.

For BYU, I think their offense is going to struggle against this pas defense of Utah’s.  The last 4 meetings with Utah they have scored 13, 21, 10, and 16.  Utah’s last 5 bowl games (dates back to 2008), they have held opponents well under their season average in each game by an average of 13 points per game which puts BYU around 21 for this game.  BYU’s offense is definitely a bit over rated based on who they have played and when matched up with a good defense the offense has struggled.  I see no reason why the same won’t happen in this game given the intensity of this rivalry.

Army/Navy U50.5 4.4* POD

I really like the under here, because both teams know how to prepare for each others offenses.  Army has had some extra time here playing last on 11/21, while Navy played in the Championship game last week something they are not used to, but I don't anticipate it having an impact on this game.  I leaned towards Army, but this is Navy's best defense since 2009 from a yards per play perspective and rushing yards perspective  That was the year Army was held to 3 points in this match up.  This is actually Army's worst offense since 2010, but their defense has stepped up it's their best run defense since 2010.  I still think Navy can score wouldn't be surprised by a 31-7 final by any means which would get Navy the cover, but the fact remains both these teams love to hang onto the football, but both know how to defend each other's offense.  

All 3 service academies run the triple option, and all know how to defend it and it has resulted in the under 28-8-2 over the last 12 years when any of the 3 have played each other including 10-1-1 on the under in this game.  I expect similar things this year despite Navy having a better offense than in years past.  It's good to know that they had an extra week of playing and haven't had a bye since early October.  This offense only has 1 more yard per game than last years offense that Army held to 282 yards and 17 points.

Air Force / SD State U50 4.4* Total of the Week

I really like this total this week.  Nothing will really fool either defense here as both teams run the ball over 70% of the time and San Diego State will probably increase their 71% average since their starting QB is out for this one as they will rely on their defense here.  SD State’s head coach Rocky Long has faced Air Force every season dating back to 1998, and he’s gotten better and better at defending the triple option holding this offense to 14, 20, and 9 points the last 3 years.  San Diego State probably has their best run defense yet allowing just 2.35 yards per carry on the year.

I still think this is a competitive game as Air Force very good fundamental team that can also stop the run.  They have only allowed 2 opponents to rush for more than 200 yards this season.  When San Diego State does not run for 200 yards they have scored 7, 27, and 21 points and have gone 0-3.  San Diego State is home for this game essentially, but not really considering the fact that they will play at the Chargers Stadium and San Diego has a large military population.  Plenty of support here for Air Force.

However, I do see San Diego State controlling this game, and I think they slow it down they are ranked 99th in tempo.  As I mentioned their run defense is superb.  Air Force has averaged 43 points per game when they run for 299 or more yards, but just 22 when they are held under that mark, and 4 of those 5 games they scored 23 or less.  I’m expecting a 23-14 or 23-10 type of final.  I do give the edge to San Diego State, because they can completely take Air Force’s offense out of this game, but Air Force very very good in the red zone allowing just 43% TD percentage.  I would not be shocked at all if Air Force pulls the upset, but if they do it’s going to be 17-14 type of game.  Either way I like the under with San Diego State controlling the game, and they are 21-7 on the under in their last 28 on grass.

Florida +18 3.3* play

I feel like this Alabama team is possibly one of the most over rated teams in a while.  That’s not to say Florida is any good, but Florida is probably the most under rated team in the SEC and that’s shocking since they are in the title game, but deservingly so after struggling the past few weeks.  I expect Florida to be a bit healthier for this game.  They also get their top WR back Demarcus Robinson, and I expect them to play lose, really challenge this Alabama defense with things they won’t be able to get from tape.  I like Treon Harris ability to be mobile in this game, and Florida has been better in the turnover department. The fact of the matter is we haven’t seen a spread this big in the SEC Championship game in 20 years.

The total is extremely low at 39 points making these 18 points even more valuable.  Florida is the best defense that Alabama has faced and arguably the most challenging match up when you factor in the talented secondary.  Florida can take more chances than most defenses because their corners are that good, and their pass rush is that good (4th in sack %).  I like their chances of stopping Derek Henry, I get they struggled vs. Cook last week, but he’s a different back entirely.  Henry more of a power runner, has some breakaway speed, but not against a Florida defense.  I also love the fact that he’s coming off 46 carries against Auburn, Alabama’s biggest rivalry.  That just proves how average this Alabama offense is with just one injury.  Henry is their one guy, and you never see Saban running his RB’s like this, but the Kenyan Drake injury has really hurt them.  T.J. Yeldon, Eddy Lacy, nor Mark Ingram never had more than 30 carries in a game.  Only Trent Richardson did and that was just twice.  Henry coming off the 46 carries is at a big risk for either injury or just simply being slowed down.  I think he’ll get his 100 yards, but it’s not going to be easy.  Florida is going to make Jake Coker hurt them and that’s a big risk for Alabama against this secondary.  I think Florida can win  the turnover margin, and hang in this game late.

*****TEASER OF THE WEEK BONUS****4.4* PLAY OUT OF 5.5 POSSIBLE

Kansas State +11.5 4.4* Teaser

I would never fade Bill Snyder in a must win situation.  Kansas State guarantee’s themselves a bowl game with a win here to move to 6-6, although I think they get a bowl game regardless, but that’s not what Snyder cares about.  This is arguably Snyder’s best coaching job although you wouldn’t think of it that way, but he does not have nearly the talent of previous years with limited JC transfers, but he still was competitive in games against Oklahoma State, TCU, and Baylor.  Just goes to show you what type of coach he is.  I like the momentum this team has built in their last 2 games stemming from their come back win against Iowa State.

Looking at West Virgnia, they need to stop the run, and force turnovers to win.  They are an excellent defense, but I’m not sure they can run the ball better than Kansas State here.  I don’t see West Virginia putting out nearly the effort that Kansas State will, and I think Kansas State’s unique running offense is much more challenging to stop.  There is a reason this offense is nothing special, but in conference play they are converting 80% of their opportunities in the red zone into TD’s, and that’s why I really like this teaser.  West Virginia on the other hand only 56% in conference play.  I also like the fact that Kansas State’s defense has stepped up in red zone defense with a 59% TD percentage allowed.  They have had some of their more challenging games at home against TCU, Oklahoma, Baylor and performed well.  West Virginia’s offense is not near what those offenses can do.

You also have to like the fact that Kansas State is penalized nearly half as much as West Virginia, 7.3 in conference play 8.3 on the road while Kansas State comes in at 4.7 at home 4.8 in conference play.  Kansas State also 2nd in the nation in special teams efficiency.  West Virginia is getting a lot of credit because of their running game of late which has produced 45% of their yards, and 50% of their TD’s in their last 4 games, but those were against some of the worst run defenses in the nation 125th(home), 66th (home), 122nd (away), 93rd (home) and 3 of those 4 games were at home.  I actually like Kansas State to pull the upset, but my algorithms don’t like it so I’m grabbing 6 points on a teaser which makes me really confident here on Saturday moving this over 2 key numbers 7, and 10.

North Carolina +10.5 Teaser

I like the Tar Heels here, I think they have a group of excellent coaches in Fedora, and Chizik on the defensive side.  Everyone is talking about their weak schedule, but if you look at each team’s last 3 games and North Carolina has been more impressive with wins against VA Tech, NC State, a healthy Miami team while Clemson has gotten by against South Carolina, Syracuse and Wake Forest.  

This is essentially a road game for Clemson at Carolina Panthers Stadium.  Marqise Williams threw 3 interceptions in the red zone in week 1 against South Carolina loss and I’m sure he remembers that.  Clemson though giving up a lot of points 32, 27, and 41 in their last 3 games on the road to offenses ranked 71st, 100th, and 61st in yards per play.  North Carolina is ranked #1.  This offense is the best that Clemson has faced, they have played a lot of weak offenses this year and have caught Miami without their star QB, Florida State right when they made their transition to a new QB, and they should have lost to Notre Dame at home.

North Carolina is a very solid team despite their schedule that nobody respects.  They can run the ball better than Clemosn although they may have difficulties stopping the run they will be better in the red zone on offense, and they have a +9 turnover margin conference play compared to Clemson -4, they are 12th in the country in special teams efficiency while Clemson is 76th.  Clemson one of the worst teams in field position value which will make these points even more valuable.  I’ve seen this Clemson offense sputter many times this season and if they do at all in this game North Carolina’s offense is plenty good to pull the upset and definitely cover double digits.

Southern Miss +8 5.5* NCAAF POD W/ +260 1* BONUS ON ML

 A lot of people are going to look at Western Kentucky, see what they did against Marshall (49-28 win), last year’s CUSA team, and see what Southern Miss has done the last few seasons (4 total wins last 3), and see their loss 10-31 on the road against Marshall and automatically assume big win here for Western Kentucky, but I think Southern Miss will shock a lot of people here.

First of all the conference stats don’t lie, and Southern Miss is better at stopping the run, running the ball, and pass defense.  Add in the fact that Southern Miss has faced the 2 most difficult Conference USA opponents (LA Tech, and Marshall) on the road while Western Kentucky played them at home, and it makes me really respect them more.  Shoot Western Kentucky even played Middle Tennessee at home, the last CUSA team with a winning record (there are only 5).

Both teams want to pass the ball here, but Southern Miss is much more balanced, and I see Western Kentucky giving up on the run early in this game.  Southern Miss allowing 3.27 yards per carry in conference play and has a couple of former power 5 recruits on the defensive line.  I mentioned early in the season how much I liked this team and Monken in his 3rd year coaching I knew it was going to be a good one and we have benefited along the way by backing this team.  They still aren’t getting any credit, because they are over shadowed by the sexy offense and sexy QB in Brandon Doughty.  I like Southern Miss Nick Mullens just as much here, and he’s been better on the road with 21 TD’s and 2 interceptions.  Speaking of turnovers, that’s how Western Kentucky’s defense gets by forcing 27, but Southern Miss has cleaned that up and is actually +6 in their last 3 games compared to Western Kentucky who is +1.

Looking into this further this is 1 of 3 solid defenses that Western Kentucky has faced from a pass defense perspective.  Vanderbilt (who they should have lost to) held them to 14 points and are ranked 58th in sack %, 26th in opposing QB rating, and 38th in yards per pass attempt.  LSU, 35th, 45th, and 24th.  Both of those defenses play in a better conference, but Southern Miss is right there with 41, 22nd, and 21st, and they can stop the run.  To put this in perspective in pass defense.  Western Kentucky is ranked 96th, 66th, and 63rd, and have allowed a conference QB rating of 117 compared to Southern Miss 100.  Keep in mind the home and away games in favor of Western Kentucky. 

Western Kentucky has played 3 teams in the top 35 in yards per play and are about to face their 4th.  Southern Miss truly is a balanced team when you look at the defense we talked about and the fact that they can run the ball 5.59 yards per carry in conference play with Ito Smith averaging over 7.  They are ranked 5th in yards per play in the nation.  Western Kentucky has faced La Tech 21st (at home) allowed 38 points, LSU 25th (road) 48, Indiana 34th (road) 38.  I’d put this Southern Miss offense as the best out of those 3.  When you take into consideration that they are a threat throwing and passing the ball.  LSU, is one dimensional, Indiana is one dimensional, and La Tech not as good as we saw last week.  I really like what Southern Miss did in two challenging non-conference games vs. Nebraska and Miss State and I think they will recapture the glory days of their Conference USA success.

Northern Illinois +12.5 3.3* play

I believe this line is inflated because of the QB situation at Northern Illinois as freshman Tommy Fiedler the 3rd string gets the start.  The QB situation for Northern Illinois has never been an issue and Fiedler's running capabilities are a bit better than Graham and Hare's so this actually may work in their favor.  Either way Northern Illinois will run the ball 60% +, and will do it with tempo.  They rank top 25 in pace, and are 6-1 when they run for more than 200 yards this season.

Bowling Green will have their hands full on defense, and this should be a very competitive game.  They have allowed an average 38.6 points per game vs. top 50 paced teams over 5 total games.  Bowling Green has yet to figure out a way to stop the run in this match up over the years as Bowling Green has rushed for over 200 yards in every match up since 2008, and have averaged over 5 yards per carry the last 3.

Northern Illinois also plays very good defense, and has faced 3 top 40 passing offenses.  Northern Illinois ranks 24th in opposing QB rating, 25th in yards per pass attempt, and 25th overall in yards per play, all MAC bests.  What's interesting is this team has held those top 40 passing offenses 10 points below their season average.  Northern Illinois also very very good in the red zone allowing 38.46 % TD percentage, and their pass defense also 13th in opponent interception % on passes thrown.  Matt Johnson has been one of the best all year no doubt, but he has 3 interceptions in his last 3 games.  This is a team that lost at home to Toledo because of turnovers and Northern Illinois went on the road and beat them.  We get some line value here based on the result the Huskies had against Ohio last week.  The MAC West a tougher conference and has gone 11-8 vs. the East this year.  I'll predict a Bowling Green win, but it will be by 7 points or less.

Stanford -3 -115 3* play

Notre Dame has not played well on the road at all.  Nearly got upset by a bad Virginia team, they lose to Clemson although they out played them, they gave Temple a shot to beat them, and they beat Pittsburgh 42-30.  Stanford is a team that wants to run the ball, but is also very confident letting their experienced QB Kevin Hogan make plays down the field.  They are very different than Stanford teams of past, and I think both of these defenses are actually not nearly as good as the ones we have seen in the past.  However, Stanford has just as much to play for here, Notre Dame has really been playing like "Ohio State" for week's and already should have lost to one PAC 12 team (USC) at home.

I trust Stanford to make adjustments at this point more than I do Notre Dame.  The Irish are -4 on the season in turnovers, they are allowing 4.85 yards per carry on the road this season.  Their offense is converting just 33% on the road, and have struggled in the red zone all year long where this game will be decided.  Notre Dame just 58% TD's in the red zone, 50% on the road, while their defense has allowed 71%.  Stanford meanwhile comes in at 66.67%, and 70% TD's in the red zone at home.  Stanford's defense has allowed 45.95%, and if they can avoid the big play they will win this game by a TD at least.  That's not a given, and I wouldn't be shocked to see the Notre Dame receivers beating this secondary deep, but I think Stanford will do a good job of getting a lead early and controlling the clock.  Stanford #1 in the nation in TOP, while Notre Dame comes in 59th.

Florida +8.5 / LSU +0.5 4.4* TEASER

Since yesterday's teaser was a push, and I really hope your sportsbook refunds your money when you push and win on two games in a teaser, it has happened to me two weekends in a row.  Some of you though may have gotten Nebraska at +8.5 and got the cover.  I feel really good about these two games tonight.  We are backing two teams that nobody probably wants to.  Florida who just nearly escaped Florida Atlantic in OT last week, and LSU who has dropped three straight.

Let's start with Florida

I think Florida State's QB Sean Maguire will make mistakes in this game that will win the Gators this game, but we are teasing it to grab great value here at +8.5 for the home dogs.  First of all Florida State has not played well on the road at all going 2-2 and their wins were not impressive at all against Wake Forest and Boston College.  Florida State has to beat the best defense they have had to face all year long.  They have the best offensive player on the field in Dalvin Cook, but he's one hit from being taken out of the game with an injury.  I don't trust his health, and even with 20+ carries I don't see them winning big.  Florida has only given up 7 total rushing TD's this season.

On the flip side I like the value here with Florida after last week.  I trust Jim McElwain, and whether his team was flat last week, because they were looking towards this game or they just weren't trying to show too much on tape I don't care I know they will rebound they have done it before this year.  Florida's offense will look better I guarantee you that, and this entire team has to feel totally disrespected.  They sit at 1 loss, at LSU and have won every big game they have been in (Georgia 27-3), Ole Miss (38-10).  This team has the most to gain by winning today, and possibly beating Alabama in the SEC Championship to get into the discussion for the playoff.

LSU Game -

Is Les Miles out after this game?  I don't think it really matters.  They lost their last 3 games, but look at who they have played. At Alabama who allows 2.28 yards per carry at home, Arkansas at home the following week (major hang over spot), but vs. the 24th ranked run defense and most balanced offense in the SEC, then they go on the road to play Ole Miss 11th in run defense.  Now they get a home game at night against the 94th ranked run defense.  This is exactly what the doctor ordered, because LSU needs to run the ball to win with 6.66 YPC in wins and 3.16 in losses.

LSU's defense has not played well either, but they have been on the field way too much which we all know has a huge impact.  Guess what, Texas A&M is ranked 108th in time of possession, they have had major issues scoring in the red zone as well, and LSU doesn't really give up the big plays.  A&M, 38% TD's ont he road in the red zone, and 41% in conference play.  LSU has had issues in the red zone, but I think the fact that their defense won't be on the field as much and they face an offense that's not nearly as good as the last 3 teams they faced (All top 50), A&M is not a top 50 offense from yards per play perspective.  Expect LSU to win here and whether is Miles last game or not he'll go out a winner.

Northwestern -3 -120 buy 1/2 point 3.5* play

I'm advising a buy on the half point with the Wildcats on Saturday as they host in state rival Illinois.  Actually this is not close to being a rivalry game although I know former Illini head coach Tim Beckhman wanted it to be.  I will say this, Fitzgerald and Northwestern remember losing last year's game big and getting knocked out of a bowl game, and I don't like the revenge factor, but Fitzgerald's quotes make it obvious that they want revenge, they want to knock Illinois out, and get 10 wins.  A 10 win season is just as important as a bowl season for Illinois, and Northwestern is far superior.

I backed Illinois last week, and we really got the cover on the road against Minnesota but they give up the long TD at the end of the game in meaningless time or a meaningless core for Minnesota who could have ended the game with 1 first down, but that sort of things happens.  Illinois has given up 538 yards on the ground over their past two games which is a bad bad thing with Northwestern coming to play.  Northwestern 4.42 YPC in wins, 1.75 in losses, they need to run the ball.  Justin Jackson has been great and had 139 yards against a Wisconsin defense that doesn't let anyone run on them.  

Northwestern has had an impressive season, I like the revenge factor and Illinois HC already know he's likely out after this season and Illinois is 0-12 in their last 12 vs. ranked opponents losing by 22.6 points on average.

Auburn +14.5 2.2*  play

I’ll take War Eagle in this game they have nothing to lose in this game.  Gus Malzahn one of the genius offensive guys in football has given Alabama headaches in years past.  Alabama can dominate the trenches on paper, but Auburn seems to be playing its best football right now.  They have rushed for over 5 yards per carry in each of their last 3 games, and have held 4 straight opponents under 200 yards.  I look for that improvement, and their run defense against Georgia despite a losing effort was really impressive.  This team has been really close in a lot of games, and I wouldn’t be surprised for them to hold this game close.  For one thing both of these offenses are one dimensional, and I don’t see a lot of points unless they go up tempo at points, but overall I think Auburn will be in striking distance.  The line is huge based on Alabama’s dominance on the road this season, and Auburn’s inconsistent play, but I think that just gives us tremendous value.

South Carolina +17.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

Never underestimate a team in a rivalry game.  We will see what the Gamecocks have left in 2015, this is their bowl game.  Clemson should already be looking at North Carolina, as South Carolina just lost to Citadel, but before that they beat Vanderbil 19-10,and lost to Texas A&M, Florida and Tennessee by a combined 20 points.  They have to cover 17.5 in their own building, and I think they can give Clemson quite the scare here.  I think South Carolina can put up some points here, and last week meant absolutely nothing to them, but it probably gave us a few more points to work with if nothing else.

I’m probably biased towards the SEC, but the ACC is far weaker, and South Carolina faced teams like LSU, Florida, Georgia, A&M, and Tennessee meanwhile Clemson got games in the same category against Notre Dame, and Florida State.  South Carolina at home has had a very good defense, they have allowed just 3 passing TD’s to 8 interceptions.  They held North Carolina’s high flying offense in check. North Carolina is fairly similar and they held Marqise Williams to 9 yards rushing, and 1 TD and 3 interceptions. 

Clemson has also struggled on the road quite a bit winning by just 3 at Louisville, giving up 41 to NC State, losing by 10 to Syracuse, and most are expect an epic blowout, but Clemson really does not need that to enhance their resume they just need to simply win their final 2 games.  This is an in state rivalry game and we have seen South Carolina step up and play competitive games against good competition before.  I don’t quite see the value on the money line at +575

FRIDAY'S TEASER BONUS PLAY

Boise State -1.5 Teaser 5.5* MAX PLAY

This is a tough spot for San Jose State who will be fighting for their bowl hopes, but they face Boise State a top 30 defense.  San Jose State is on short rest, and they are coming off a road trip from Hawaii, this is a difficult spot for any team at any time in the season never mind at the end of the season.  Boise State has to be pissed off after 2 straight losess. This team is 13-2 straight up following a loss since 2008.

What I really like about Boise in this spot is they are 5-1 when they can run the ball for greater than 4 yards per carry, I believe they can do that against San Jose State, and they are 7-1 when they allow the opponent to run for 4 yards or less per carry.  The game plan against a weaker San Jose State team should simply be stop the run, and if Boise doesn’t turn the ball over a crazy amount like the Utah State game they should win this game easily.  San Jose is 0-3 vs. top 35 defenses this year and they have really stacked up their stats against the weak teams in the conference.  San Jose State also not a very good team on special teams which is something Boise State prides themselves on.  I don’t see the edge with San Jose State other then they want to get to a bowl game, but the line value is right for Boise State it should be 14+, it’s not because of B2B losses, and the line has moved from 10 to 7.5 let’s take advantage of these factors and take Boise State.

Nebraska +8 Teaser

I love the Huskers in this match up, and really wanted to take them on the regular line to pull off the upset.  A few things stopped me including their ability to stop the run which is a bit misleading, but they are well rested, and have a deep rotation that should make things very challenging for Iowa.  First of all every time Nebraska was in a tight game in the 4th quarter they have found a way to lose.  They could very easily be sitting here undefeated as well, but they are not so it’s hard to take them to win this game, but I feel extremely comfortable and confident in them covering a full TD in this game as long at Tommy Armstrong doesn’t give Iowa points by turning the ball over 3+ times we should be in good shape.

Nebraska is going to challenge this Iowa defense that hasn’t been challenged.  They have a balanced offense, that can beat you both ways, and they really like to open things up in the passing game top 25 explosiveness, and although the weather may hold some of that back they are just as dangerous on the ground as Iowa.  Home field advantage and the 13 days off, Iowa is on 6 days off and full of distractions now that they are thrown into the college football playoff.  Nebraska also wants a win to get into a bowl game, and have been competitive in every game.  I think the difference will be up front for Nebraska who terrorized this Iowa offensive line last year with Vincente Valentine and Maliek Collins.  If Iowa gets into predictable situations they will not win this game and Nebraska can claim they beat both teams in the Big 10 Championship game.  Even with a loss Iowa is still alive for the college football playoff.

Ohio State / Michigan Under 47 3.3* play

I really like the under, I think this is a lot of points with each team facing the best defense they will face all year long.  I really think Ohio State’s defense steps up in games like this, and this trend proves it as they are under 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a winning team.  When we get down to the match up I think we see a 21-17, or lower type of final.  This game still has a lot of meaning, and both head coaches will be well prepared to play with the strengths of their teams which is running the ball and playing defense.  I also love the fact that each coach will have his players believing that this game is to get into the Big Ten Championship.  If Penn State loses later that day it certainly will be, but there will be no scoreboard watching until after the game resulting in what I feel will be a great game.

I actually originally leaned towards Ohio State here, but the numbers make me think Michigan will win although I’m not playing the side because of these reasons I do have a strong feeling on the under.  These are two complete defenses taking the field both ranked top 5 in yards per play allowed.  They can each stop the run ranking in the top 10, and Ohio State has allowed 2.8 on the road while Michigan has allowed 2.3 at home.  Ohio State runs the ball 61% of the time and more on the road, and are lost when they can’t run the ball, good luck.  Michigan running the ball 8% more at home for a 62%.  I see them getting an early lead here and looking to hold onto that by trusting their defense.  Ohio State had 5 first downs last week against Michigan State which is having a down year on the defensive side of the ball.  Michigan does everything better that Michigan State does on defense, and I expect to see a lot of conservative play calling here.  Both teams are excellent in the red zone, and on third downs with Michigan getting the edge allowing 22% conversions on third down and 21% in the red zone for TD’s.  This is a key stat as they will play an offense that is better.  The margin of victory is very small don’t expect to see a lot of explosive plays from either coordinator.  

Kentucky +163 4* play

This is the year Kentucky finally gets back to a bowl game, and beats Louisville all in one game.  I’ve backed Kentucky quite a few times this year and watched quite a few games.  RUN THE BALL!  I think now that they have moved to QB Drew Barker they absolutely will.  They don’t want this kid doing too much, he’s already proven he will take care of the ball better than Patrick Towles did, and this will be a more efficient offense.  The offense finally ran the ball over 60% last time, and I think they do it again here with the combo of Boom Williams and Jo Jo Kemp.  Williams is the best back in the country than nobody has heard of.  He’s got explosive tendencies, and is a true difference maker against Louisville if they feed him the rock.  This is the time to do it.  You can’t worry about injury or anything else like that there may not be a next game.

I like the fact that Kentucky’s offense got their confidence back in a tune up game against Charlotte last time out and I think they will use that to their advantage here.  Louisville comes in off a struggling defensive performance giving up 45 points to Pitt who is ranked far lower in offense than Kentucky, and Pitt does not have to face consistently good defenses like Kentucky in the SEC. 

Louisville has struggled on the road in each game, and it’s hard to find their best win as being impressive.  Do you call it their win over Virginia or Syracuse?  Either way not much to get excited about.  Kentucky has played extremely well at home, and has some very close games against Florida, and Auburn who Louisville played far worse against.

Louisville also has major struggles in red zone and third downs, and their offensive line is in shambles.  Kentucky’s defense on paper not as good as Louisville’s defense, but when they face weak running teams like Louisville who is 105th in rushing ypc they tend to play extremely well.  Factor in the fact that Louisville cannot protect their QB allowing 43 sacks, and it’s hard to see Louisville scoring in the 20’s in this game on the road.  I’ll take my chances with Kentucky who at least I can count on to run the ball well.  As long as their coaches stick to that game plan with some play action I don’t see how they can lose this game.  Yet again I would not be shocked to see it happen as anything is possible from college coaches in these situations.

Navy -3.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

Granted we would have been getting better line value here with Navy if Houston had won last week against Houston.  I understand Greg Ward didn’t really play, and he should be healthy for this game, but he’s just not 100% and I would play Navy even with a 100% Ward.  I trust a disciplined Navy defense over Houston who hasn’t faced anyone any day of the week.  The red flags have definitely popped up over the last 3 weeks with Houston winning by 3, 1, and losing by 3 this past week.  They have definitely been lucky in their wins, and have relied largely on forcing turnovers which won’t cut it against Navy who has just 6 turnovers on the year.  The blueprint has been shown on how to beat Houston, and I don’t think Houston’s defense which is extremely misleading has enough time to prepare for a triple option attack, arguably one of the best triple action attacks we have seen in years led by Keenan Reynolds.

Reynolds leads this team, and Navy is ranked 6th in yards per carry.  Both Uconn and Memphis ran the ball 43, and 54 times against Houston with decent success and they are ranked 84th and 106th.  Houston has not allowed a team to rush for over 4 yards per carry, but… Fact, Houston has faced an average rushing offense ranked 91st and just 2 team sin top 50 at 43 and 48.  Navy should be able to control this game like they have in every game this year besides Notre Dame. 

Navy has the better defense here with less to prepare for on the short week.  I respect Houston’s head coach Tom Herman, but he’s gotten by this season with an easy schedule. Houston’s rushing offense has shown issues in their last 2 days and I don’t think they can just flip the switch vs. Navy, an extremely disciplined team that knows how to stop the run ranking 31st in the country.  Houston has rushed for 96, and 110 the last 2 weeks showing more vulnerabilities that a team like Navy can easily take advantage of.

Looking at the conference stats between these two.  Navy has the advantage in rushing offense, and slight edge in rushing defense based on strength of schedule which is ranked 31st compared to Houston at 112th.  Passing offense efficiency of 162 in conference play with no turnovers to Houston at 136 with 5 turnovers.  Passing defense Houston edge, but again SOS comes into play and they don’t even have that big of an advantage 133 to 128.  Navy penalized exactly 3 less times per game in conference play at 2.9.  Navy converting on third downs 61% compared to Houston at 48.21%, Again advantage Houston slightly on 3rd down defense 39.29% compared to 42.5% but they are worse at home.  Red Zone offense edge to Navy at 77% TD’s on 35 attempts in conference play, 72.7% for Houston on 33 attempts.  Houston’s red zone defense has been an issue at times and has allowed 70% conversions to Navy’s 65%.  4th down’s could be the biggest difference in this game, Houston has stopped them, but hasn’t faced a team that attempts and converts like Navy with 90% success rate.  Houston is 3-10, and Navy has held opponents to 31% conversions on 4th downs.  I think the type of preparation you have to do for a Navy game is washed out by the fact that Houston has home field advantage.  We saw Houston go into Memphis and win 45-20, we saw Memphis nearly beat Houston 2 weeks ago.  Navy knows what is at stake, and these players can put their signature on this program’s history.  I don’t see them losing this game without turning the ball over 2 times and they just don’t do that.

Texas -1 -105  3.5* play

I like the Longhorns here, and would like them even larger if they were healthier at RB, but I don’t think it matters against Texas Tech.  Texas has had a good rushing attack all season with Heard at QB throwing defenses off, and Texas Tech is among one of the worst defenses I have ever seen.  Texas has more to play for, and I think these players step up to keep their bowl hopes alive with Baylor on deck.  Texas has shown abilities to score a lot of points this season against bad defenses, and they have played much better at home. 

In reality I don’t like either coach here, but Kingsbury has not shown me anything than an ability to run his mouth.  He’s 0-3 from last year off extra rest, he typically has an easier schedule, and he’s lost in convincing fashion the last two years against Texas and that’s because Texas has been able to run the ball with consistency.  Texas becomes a hard team to beat if you put them in that situation, and they have 5.48 yards per carry at home this season, and have rushed for 5.78 in their wins vs. 4.25 in their loses.  I don’t know that Tech has that ability to stop Texas offense with extra prep time.  I really doubt it and I have more faith in Texas defense to stop Tech’s offense for a couple of reasons.

Texas has played better defense overall and has hold conference opponents to 3.87 yards per carry.  They also possess something that most Big 12 teams don’t, a pass rush ranking top 10.  Only Oklahoma can claim that.  Actually a good pass rush is what Texas Tech struggles against going just 2-6 straight up in the Kingsbury era.

Some other things popped out to me when looking at this match up other than the fact that the general public is so far down on Texas right now.  Texas has actually played better at home, better in conference play.  Tech’s offense and defense have played worse, their red zone defense and 3rd down defense in conference play and on the road are very concerning, they turn the ball over too much, their special teams is 51 points worse than Texas from an efficiency perspective, and they are penalized 1.5x more per conference game.

BOISE -1.5 / NEBRASKA +8 5.5* TEASER OF THE WEEK
Boise State -1.5 Teaser
This is a tough spot for San Jose State who will be fighting for their bowl hopes, but they face Boise State a top 30 defense. San Jose State is on short rest, and they are coming off a road trip from Hawaii, this is a difficult spot for any team at any time in the season never mind at the end of the season. Boise State has to be pissed off after 2 straight losess. This team is 13-2 straight up following a loss since 2008.

What I really like about Boise in this spot is they are 5-1 when they can run the ball for greater than 4 yards per carry, I believe they can do that against San Jose State, and they are 7-1 when they allow the opponent to run for 4 yards or less per carry. The game plan against a weaker San Jose State team should simply be stop the run, and if Boise doesn't turn the ball over a crazy amount like the Utah State game they should win this game easily. San Jose is 0-3 vs. top 35 defenses this year and they have really stacked up their stats against the weak teams in the conference. San Jose State also not a very good team on special teams which is something Boise State prides themselves on. I don't see the edge with San Jose State other then they want to get to a bowl game, but the line value is right for Boise State it should be 14+, it's not because of B2B losses, and the line has moved from 10 to 7.5 let's take advantage of these factors and take Boise State.

Nebraska +8 Teaser

I love the Huskers in this match up, and really wanted to take them on the regular line to pull off the upset. A few things stopped me including their ability to stop the run which is a bit misleading, but they are well rested, and have a deep rotation that should make things very challenging for Iowa. First of all every time Nebraska was in a tight game in the 4th quarter they have found a way to lose. They could very easily be sitting here undefeated as well, but they are not so it's hard to take them to win this game, but I feel extremely comfortable and confident in them covering a full TD in this game as long at Tommy Armstrong doesn't give Iowa points by turning the ball over 3+ times we should be in good shape.

Nebraska is going to challenge this Iowa defense that hasn't been challenged. They have a balanced offense, that can beat you both ways, and they really like to open things up in the passing game top 25 explosiveness, and although the weather may hold some of that back they are just as dangerous on the ground as Iowa. Home field advantage and the 13 days off, Iowa is on 6 days off and full of distractions now that they are thrown into the college football playoff. Nebraska also wants a win to get into a bowl game, and have been competitive in every game. I think the difference will be up front for Nebraska who terrorized this Iowa offensive line last year with Vincente Valentine and Maliek Collins. If Iowa gets into predictable situations they will not win this game and Nebraska can claim they beat both teams in the Big 10 Championship game. Even with a loss Iowa is still alive for the college football playoff.

Ball State +23 3.3* play 

I really like Ball State here tonight back at home, after not covering the spread 2 weeks in a row. They've given up 48 and 54 points on the road the last two weeks, so the perception is and should be bad defense, against better offense, but Bowling Green has absolutely nothing to play for here.  Bowling Green is already in the MAC Championship and have a history of laying down when they don't have much to play for.  I think it's more important for them to rest their players than to beat Ball State.  Ball State has room for optimism too, this is a much better team at home, they also have a lot to look forward to with their QB Riley Neal, who even played well at Ohio last week in the losing effort.  It's this team's last home game, and I could easily see Ball State sticking around late in this one.

Oklahoma State pk 2.2* play / Under 78 3.3* play

Mike Gundy is a terrific coach, and definitely the better coach in this match up.  Oklahoma State enjoys one of the best home field advantages in all of football going 26-5 since 2011 here, and even better 23-1 when they are favored, which some books have Oklahoma State favored, and in those 24 games they have out performed the spread by an average of 6 points.

Baylor has been notorious for their easy schedules early, and have gone 6-14 straight up in their last 20 November road games.  They scored just 17 points here in 2013 coming in with an undefeated record at the time.  The offense has not clicked under Stidham despite his great stats and the rushing offense has been halted in the last two games now that they are playing defenses with a pulse.  Stidham not 100% for this game (back), but will likely play, and has his hands full against an Oklahoma State team that is allowing 3.3 ypc on the ground, has 15 interceptions, and a top 10 pass rush.  Oklahoma, a team with a top 10 pass rush gave Baylor all sorts of issues as Stidham was constantly under pressure.  Look for Emanuel Ogbah to help force a turnover that could change the game.

I think the total is a bit high here as well considering those facts, and the game is calling for 22mph winds, which typically impacts the defenses, I may by back on the over if this line moves down to 71 or 72, and the weather clears up a bit, but at this number I really like the under to hit, and I like Oklahoma State who are 13-3 SU & ATS in their last 16 meetings with Baylor, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall in the month of November.

There is a bit of value here with Oklahoma State after they struggled against Iowa State last week which was to be expected.  Iowa State is a well-coached team under Paul Rhoads, like a poor man’s Bill Snyder.

Oklahoma State pk 2.2* play / Under 78 3.3* play

Mike Gundy is a terrific coach, and definitely the better coach in this match up.  Oklahoma State enjoys one of the best home field advantages in all of football going 26-5 since 2011 here, and even better 23-1 when they are favored, which some books have Oklahoma State favored, and in those 24 games they have out performed the spread by an average of 6 points.

Baylor has been notorious for their easy schedules early, and have gone 6-14 straight up in their last 20 November road games.  They scored just 17 points here in 2013 coming in with an undefeated record at the time.  The offense has not clicked under Stidham despite his great stats and the rushing offense has been halted in the last two games now that they are playing defenses with a pulse.  Stidham not 100% for this game (back), but will likely play, and has his hands full against an Oklahoma State team that is allowing 3.3 ypc on the ground, has 15 interceptions, and a top 10 pass rush.  Oklahoma, a team with a top 10 pass rush gave Baylor all sorts of issues as Stidham was constantly under pressure.  Look for Emanuel Ogbah to help force a turnover that could change the game.

I think the total is a bit high here as well considering those facts, and the game is calling for 22mph winds, which typically impacts the defenses, I may by back on the over if this line moves down to 71 or 72, and the weather clears up a bit, but at this number I really like the under to hit, and I like Oklahoma State who are 13-3 SU & ATS in their last 16 meetings with Baylor, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall in the month of November.

There is a bit of value here with Oklahoma State after they struggled against Iowa State last week which was to be expected.  Iowa State is a well-coached team under Paul Rhoads, like a poor man’s Bill Snyder.

Northwestern +10 2.2* play

The total in this game is 40, and we get 10 points to work with a dominant defense against an offense that has not been very good at all.  Typically Wisconsin can run the ball with the best of teams, but they are one of the worst, and they haven’t played a lot of good run defenses.  I don’t see anything changing that at this point in the season as this team has just two 200+ yard rushing games and those came against Hawaii and Rutgers.  Wisconsin has played just two teams in the top 25 in defense and scored 17, and 6 points, Northwestern is ranked 9th in yards per play allowed.

These two teams look like a mirror of each other.  Both predicated on their defense, and running the ball, and ironically Northwestern has run the ball better 4.03 YPC in conference play vs. better defenses – they have faced 5 top 25 defenses, Wisconsin just 1 in conference play.  Wisconsin has averaged just 3.56 ypc in conference play.  Both pass defenses are excellent allowing 5 passing TD’s on the season, so scoring is going to be at a premium here.  It will be a little windy as well so I give the edge to Northwestern here with a mobile QB.  Joel Stave has not played well vs. this defense throwing 5 interceptions, and he’s faced 3 top 35 passing defenses this year and has not played well 2 TD’s and 3 INT’s in 3 games.  Northwestern 7th in passing defense for opposing QB rating.  Granted Northwestern hasn’t really faced any QB’s that can bomb it away, but Stave struggled vs. Rutgers (117th passing defense), and Maryland (83rd).

Northwestern also has an edge in special teams with Soloman Vault.  I get that Wisconsin is off a bye here and has a very good defense, but Northwestern is well coached by Fitzgerald.  They come off a 3 turnover game last week, and have bounced back twice with 0 turnovers in their next game.  I give them a lot of credit here, and I think they’ll be competitive

USC +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

This is a worse match up for Oregon on Saturday, because USC is better at limiting big plays than Stanford is ranking 22nd.  Oregon who relies on the run also struggles to win games against top 30 run defenses which USC is from a YPC perspective. Oregon lost to Utah, lost to Michigan State, and only beat Washington by 6, but USC far more capable on offense than Washington is that’s for sure, and last I looked this Oregon defense is still pretty awful, and USC has a much more balanced offense than Stanford does.

Oregon also coming into this game off 4 straight covers and Vegas has not been close.  Oregon has covered the spread by 10.5, 12.5, 8.5, and 8.5.  USC coming off back to back loses ATS of 14 and 11, so Vegas definitely adjusted this line, but on paper USC should win this game from a statistical perspective.  USC has the edge here in other situational scenarios given that they have an extra day to prepare, Oregon off a huge emotional win, and in reality they got lucky.  They knock Stanford out of the playoff discussion, and I think that was satisfying enough. It’s a long shot for them to compete for the division, while USC is in the driver seat to get to the PAC 12 Championship.  This game means much more to USC.  Oregon’s defense was pretty bad last game, and was lucky with forcing 3 turnovers, 2 of which came on bad center to QB exchanges while Stanford was looking to score.  That rarely happens, and even when it does the offense typically recovers, but Oregon got extremely lucky and now we are benefiting with this line.  USC simply does not turn the ball over, only 9 on the year.

I’m a bit concerned about the injuries USC has on defense, but I think they should be able to do whatever they want on defense, Oregon is going to have to score on longer methodical drives than they are comfortable with, and that typically results in mistakes from this team.  Give me the points with USC losing a lot of public backers the past few weeks.  3 weeks ago USC would have been favored, and this team has played extremely well on the road, and probably should have beaten Notre Dame.  I’ll ignore their crummy performance against Colorado last week.

ILLINOIS +5 3.3* play

These two teams are very similar, poor on offense, ranked similarly on defense, and they have faced similar strength of schedules although Illinois has played a bit better in my opinion.  I believe this line should be more like 3 points, but recent bias has this line higher, because Minnesota has been extremely competitive in their last 3 games against Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa arguably the 3 best Big 10 teams.  I just do not trust their ability to get up for this game, along with the fact that Minnesota is extremely banged up right now, the defensive line, the offensive line, the secondary all have so many question marks going into this game.

If you are a casual fan you would make a few assumptions about this game including the fact that Minnesota can run the ball, Minnesota has the better defense, and Illinois is below average on defense, but that’s actually not true and it favors Illinois in this match up, because they have the better defense, they have the better running game, and Minnesota has struggled to run the ball ranking 102nd in the nation.  In fact Illinois is ranked 9th overall in defense, 41st in rush and 12th in pass in S&P ratings.  Minnesota has been forced to pass so much this year and they’ve done okay, but just 12 passing TD’s on 334 attempts.  This team struggles big time when they get to the red zone, and they’ll face a relentless front 7 out of Illinois that is hungry to get to a bowl game.

Looking at other stats in this game you have to really like Illinois who have the edge in third down defense, red zone offense, red zone defense by a wide margin, turnover margin by 7, penalties, special teams, and tackle for a loss margin.  Again they are coming off a 28-3 loss to Ohio State, and not getting much credit, but I think we are about to see Ohio State turn it into high gear, and they had JT Barrett on his heals the entire game.  I truly expect Illinois to actually win this game on the road. I don’t know that Minnesota can get up for a team like Illinois after playing 4 marquee games in a row.

TEASER OF THE WEEK - 4.4* PLAY - DUKE +8.5 / KANSAS STATE PK

DUKE +8.5 TEASER

The value is definitely here on Duke after losing ATS in their last 3 games by 13, 29, and 15.5, and they now get a match up I believe they can handle, and they made a big change kicking three guys off the team which should be a difference maker.  Virginia on the other hand now 3-7, can’t get to a bowl, but have covered 4 games in a row, and they have Virginia Tech next week who they have lost to 11 times. Mike London definitely not motivated here in my opinion, but will be looking towards that game.  The coaching edge here with David Cutcliffe is enormous in my opinion, and I think Duke gets back to Duke football.

Virginia’s defense is not very good particularly against the run, and I think Dukes rushing offense will get some nice runs to control this game.  To beat Duke big you have to be able to stop the pass, and pass the ball, and that’s not Virginia’s game at all.  Yes Matt Johns can put up yards, but he’s been a turnover machine with 15 interceptions this Virginia team has a -9 turnover margin on the season.  Their pass defense has allowed a 156 QB rating which is good news to whomever plays QB for Duke.  They missed Thomas Sirk last week, and I think he will play in this game.

Duke enjoys the advantage in 3rd down offense, and defense, and has +15 trips inside the red zone to Virginia’s -13 trips.  They have a significant edge I special teams, and are +32 in tackles for loss.  Everyone is so low on Duke right now and it’s the exact time I like to jump in and back a team.  I like them in a teaser considering in Virginia’s 3 wins they have only won by 6 and no more.

KANSAS ST PK TEASER

Along with Duke I will be teasing Kansas State to just win the game.  I feel we have great value here given the fact that Kansas State is still alive for a bowl game at 3-6 with 3 games left, including games against Kansas, and West Virginia who they will close out the season against at home.  Iowa State at 3-7 now, and is in a huge hang over spot after having undefeated Oklahoma State on the ropes.  Iowa State’s defense is just not very good, and it’s exactly what Kansas State needs to break their 6 game losing streak.  They are 38-17 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and this is just the 4th time they have been favored they have won every other game.  Kansas State is 21-4 in their history against Iowa State, and I believe Bill Snyder is the better coach, and will have his team ready.  He’s already admitted that he has each player searching, and looking over his 16 goals, and I just think that’s Snyder being a great coach, being able to get the best out of every athlete.  He hasn’t had the talent that he has had in years past yet he’s still had this team fighting in games against TCU and Baylor.  I look for this team to fight to get to 5 wins with a shot at a 6th against West Virginia, but it starts this week.

Rutgers -4.5 2.2* play 12pm

I like Rutgers here as a road favorite this team is geared up and pumped up to be playing the triple option according to Kyle Flood.  Rutgers is 12-2 since 2001 vs. triple option teams, and this defense has played better vs. the run than last year when they allowed 5.53 ypc on the season, but they were able to hold Navy, a much more polished version of this offense to a season low 171 yards, and they did not have an extra week of practice. The value is on Rutgers in my opinion this team is not as bad as they have looked losing their last 4 in a row SU & ATS, losing ATS by 9.5, 9, 30, and 21.  I think they bounce back with a win ATS here. 

Rutgers gets a break here in the defense they face, and when they are not playing a top tier defense this offense can hum a little bit.  Army ranked 128th in pass defense, 68th in run defense, and the last 4 games Rutgers has faced 4 teams in the top 22 in run defense, and 3 of the 4 were ranked top 5 in pass defense, yes you got that right they faced the best pass defense, 3rd, and 5th all in their last 4 games.  I’m not surprised this offense has sputtered, but they have put up big numbers when going up against a pass defense like Army. 

If Rutgers is able to score like I think they will they won’t have an issue covering this number.  Army is not going to try to kick field goals, and Rutgers is very good out of conference play on third downs.  I think they will defense the triple option well, as Kyle Flood, a very good coach has challenged his team stating “this is one of the great challenges in all college football.”  They did a great job last year under DC Joe Rossi, and over their last 14 where they have gone 12-2 they have held triple option offenses 46.4 yards below their season average.  Army not nearly as polished as the Navy teams Rutgers has faced, and I think Rutgers hold them well under their season average of 254.  When Army is held under that average they are 0-5 losing games by an average of 13.8 points.  We have two things working for us in this match up, Rutgers ability to defend this triple option, and Army’s defense giving Rutgers an ability to score that they haven’t had lately.  I’m all over this one.

Cincinnati -1.5 3.3* play

I'm going to take the Bearcats here in this situation tonight going on the road to face a South Florida team coming off their biggest win in many many years defeating the ranked Temple team and they did so in easy fashion.  I had South Florida in a teaser last week and it easily cashed, but on a short week I think the Bearcats will be more ready to win this game.  First of all South Florida has placed 3 top 50 offenses (Cincinnati is the best) from a yards per play perspective and has gone 0-3 against them.  

This is a major hang over game for South Florida, and Cincinnati clearly playing with an edge right now.  They were the pre season favorite, and really if they don't turn the ball over 11 times in their 3 conference losses against Houston, Memphis, and Temple we would be having a different conversation as Cincinnati out gained Houston by 162, Temple by 261, and Memphis by 182, but lost all 3 games!  South Florida is ranked 82nd in takeaways and I expect the Bearcats to take care of the ball.

Nobody has stopped this offense all season and I don't see South Florida stopping it either.  However, South Florida can run the ball with Marlon Mack and Quinton Flowers and it's not like Cincinnati's defense has played well, it hasn't.  I do see Marlon Mack on a short week with 48 carries in his last two games and I really have to wonder if he may get gassed in this game.  Cinci, comes into this game with more healthy players, and really is a team that is more capable of playing well on a short week.  They are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings, the value here is on the Bearcats when you consider how South Florida has covered the spread with ease the last two weeks 23.5, and 10.5. 

N.ILL vs. WMU Under 61 3.3* play

I'll be taking the under tonight, there should be 20-25mph winds which means both teams will likely have issues throwing the ball.  Both teams can run the ball, but Western Michigan needs to run the ball efficiently to score a lot of points.  Northern Illinois run defense is very strong at home allowing just 3.25 yards per carry.  On the flip side Western Michigan has struggled vs. the run, and they have struggled against this team a lot lately.  I think they are able to hold up in the red zone against the young QB on the other side and I don't think Northern Illinois relies on him to do too much.  A lot on the line in this game as both teams are alive for the MAC Championship.  I'm expecting a tight played game, and these teams seem to play good defense when they have played over the years.

Kent State +8.5 2.2* play

I look for Kent State to play a bit of spoiler here.  There will be 20-25mph winds which definitely favors the defense for Kent State who does not allow any deep passes.  Central Michigan is strictly a passing team they have had major issues running it and will again tonight.  If the wind plays a major factor like I think it will this will be going under the already low total of 40 points, and 8.5 points with a very good defense is a place I want my money.  I think Kent State will force some turnovers here to set themselves up in good field position as Central Michgian is -4 on the road.  Good value on this line, and I expect this game to be an ugly one.

Ball State +9 3.3* play 

Ohio is a below average team every way you look at it.  This is a team that lost to Western Michigan by just as much as Ball State did, but on paper we are looking at a 6-4 team at home vs. a 3-7 team on the road.  Ball State has some extra rest here which was not the case in their last game where they had just 4 days to prepare before going on the road to face Western Michigan.  I don't know how they do that to these kids, and the result was Ball State missed covering the spread by 32 points.  Ohio hosted the same situation last week when Kent State had to go on the road with 4 days of preparation and the result was a 21 point cover by Ohio as they won 27-0.  Definitely a good spot to take Ball State with some line value for those reasons alone, but there is more.

Ball State is out of the MAC West which has gone 9-4 SU & 8-5 ATS against the MAC East.  Take out Eastern Michigan who is 0-3 SU&ATS and you have a 9-1 record and 8-2 ATS.  These are not just short term trends these trends go back previous years as well.  The recruiting in the MAC West is superior to what teams see out of the MAC East.  While Ohio does not necessarily fit that assumption we still feel better in backing Ball State here.  

Ohio is an average team, and Derrius Vick is having a nice season, but he's not blowing anyone away. 10 TD to 6 INT's, a 134 QB rating, but a 113 in conference play which is a pretty significant drop.  He's got just 5 TD to 8 interceptions in conference plays.  He's not elite enough to take advantage of Ball State's biggest weakness which is the pass defense.  Vick also has -173 rushing yards and just under 400 rushing yards with a less than 2 yards per carry.  Not impressive at all.  I actually like Ball State's QB a bit better.  Riley Neal has 13 TD's to 3 INT's and nearly 400 yards rushing with more than a 4 yard per carry average.  Ohio also worse on special teams, and are penalized 7.6 times per game compared with Ball State at 3.8.  Ball State RB's have not fumbled the ball once this year just 1 of 9 FBS teams who can claim that.  This team seems to be well coached, and I like the extra rest and other situations. I  wouldn't be surprised to see an upset considering Ohio is already in a bowl game, and has Northern Illinois next week.

Baylor -2.5 4.4* play

Let’s not get carried away with this Oklahoma team who lost to Texas, the one and only top 50 defense they have played all year.  Oklahoma will be facing their stiffest task, and the only reason we have such a low spread for Baylor is the fact that Oklahoma has been covering everything Vegas has thrown at them including a 39 point spread that they covered by 16 points.  They have covered their last 4 ATS by a margin of 25.25 points.  Baylor comes into this game with a freshmen QB playing in just his second game, and they lost their last 2 games ATS by 13.25 points after the spread.  Baylor also struggled with Kansas State last week while Oklahoma blew them out 55-0, but Oklahoma got Kansas State at the right time.  Kansas State just nearly upset TCU and gave their all in that game.  Kansas State got Baylor during the week, at home with their freshmen QB making his first start on the road.

Actually Jarrett Stidham played exceptionally well and showed a lot of poise considering his running game did not help him out.  He had a nice day completing 23/33 passes for 419 yards and 3 TD’s.  Just like this is the best defense he’s going to face, this is the best offense that Oklahoma is going to face, it’s also the best defense Oklahoma is going to face.

Oklahoma has put up 52+ points in each of their last 4 games, but the schedule is a joke facing the following ranked defenses from a yards per play perspective, 103, 119, 127, and 116.  This is why nobody can give the Big 12 any credit and I have even been on this conference for a while because of this.  Baylor however is one of the exceptions, and their defense is full of next level talent.  I just think they get bored out there, but they are well aware of the implications on this game and I believe they are poised to play their best game against Oklahoma who has faced 1 team ranked in the top 50 in defense and that was Texas ranked 46th in yards per play allowed and we all know how that turned out.  Baylor is ranked 36th.  Game of the year line before the season was 13 in favor of Baylor, and opened at 7.  We are getting tremendous value here and Baylor has played Oklahoma well on defense the last few years.  They haven’t been a favorite of less than a TD at home in over 3 years, and are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 despite that fact.  Looking for Baylor to come away with a big impressive performance.

Missouri +6.5 5.5* POD  / Missouri +220 1* play

Last week I played on the Tigers at home against Miss State, and it didn’t look bad at the half 14-13, but they went on to struggle in the second half, couldn’t get off the field, but there was a positive that came out of the game.  The running game was excellent rushing for 200+ yards, and Missouri is 10-4-1 ATS following a performance like that in their last 15.  They are also 18-7 ATS following an ATS loss, they are 2-7 ATS on the season.  We could not be getting more value at the right time.  I also think this team will play inspired football considering they were getting ready to boycott this game, because of the racial injustice on their campus.  The President was fired and Missouri will have all their players and I think it’s pretty ironic they go up against BYU that is well known for their anti-gay policy in Prov which is part of their school code.  I don’t even know if any of the players know about that, but if Gary Pinkel is smart he brings it up.  Either way this team is going to be happy and inspired to get back on the field and not take anything for granted.  They also need wins here to get back to a bowl game. 

BYU on the other hand has issues on their offensive line and a couple of guys are questionable.  That’s a big problem against Missouri who is 14th in pass rush, BYU 81st in protecting their QB.  They are even worse on the road and this game will be played at the Chiefs football stadium Arrowhead.  Still a home game for Missouri that I expect them to win with their running game.  BYU is allowing 4.9 yards per carry on the road 3.9 overall similar to Miss State.  BYU’s offense not nearly as good as Miss State, and they have an inexperienced QB that Missouri can force turnovers with.  I may play the money line here as well, but I really like the Tigers in this match up. 

Kentucky +3.5 3.3* play

I really like Kentucky in this spot not only are we getting value, because they haven’t been close to covering any of their last 5 games with the exception of Auburn, a game they should have covered and won, but they are coming off one of their worst performances, losing 27-3 to Georgia last week.  Kentucky did not have their best offensive player in that game in Boom Williams which to me is a huge deal.  He’s probably for this week and if he plays and they give him 15+ carries Kentucky will win this game.  Boom Williams is the best SEC RB that nobody has heard of.  He’s definitely the best RB that Vanderbilt has faced since week 2 when they faced Nick Chubb and allowed Georgia to run wild for 281 yards.  Vanderbilt’s run defense has quietly been average allowing 4.38 yards per carry in conference play.  Kentucky has to be smart here with their offense due to the struggles of Patrick Towles and with Williams back, and a bowl game on the line I think they will do just that.

Vanderbilt on the other hand is in a brutal stretch 5 of their last 6 games on the road including 3 of the last 4 without a bye week.  This is a tough tough spot coming off an emotional loss down at Florida a game they nearly had pulled the great upset.  I’m expecting a close game because Vanderbilt does have a very good defense, but Kentucky’s defense has played well too, and Vanderbilt’s offense is arguably the worst in the nation.  Vanderbilt is very much like Missouri, and Kentucky handled Missouri pretty well.  Vanderbilt has huge issues in the kicking game and is the worst red zone offense in the country with 38% TD percentage 28% in conference play and 61% scoring percentage.  Compare that with Kentucky’s 89%.  Kentucky also plays good defense in the red zone allowing just 51% TD’s in conference play.

Kentucky has also struggled with turnovers, but wouldn’t you know it Vanderbilt has out done them turning the ball over 5 more times.  I just think this is a perfect value spot for Kentucky who has more to play for with Charlotte on deck there is a good chance they go to bowl game with a win here.

USF +8.5 TEASER  w/ FLORIDA GATORS -1.5 4.4* PLAY

Two top 50 defenses meet on Saturday night, this is a huge game for South Florida who wants to announce they are back to being a solid team.  This team has definitely flown under the radar and can pull within 1 game with a win here in their AAC division.  At this point Temple is over rated in my opinion we were lucky to cover the spread in the Notre Dame game, and their 19 forced turnovers have really saved them in spots like the Cinci game.  This is a difficult trip playing at night as well, and I expect a very tight game as South Florida has only 11 turnovers on the season.

South Florida also very efficient on offense with the running game ranking 21st, and a passing game that can beat you when they want.  Quinton Flowers has done a great job, he’s a mobile QB, something that Temple has had issues with and Marlon Mack is arguably the best RB in this conference.  Temple has not played well on the road -36 yards per game, South Florida +137 per game and recent common opponent on the road of East Carolina shoed South Florida at +222 yards, and Temple at -56.  Getting over a TD I really like this team when you tease them.

Florida Gators -1.5

I really like the Gators in this spot.  They really need another impressive win to get back on the college football playoff comitee’s radar and South Carolina has been playing better so this is a perfect spot for them to do so.  This line has already moved 3 points in our favor from 10.5 down to 7.5 and I’m going to move it 6 more.  The value is already there with Florida failing to look impressive against Vanderbilt last week, but a lot of teams have failed vs. Vanderbilt who has a really good defense.  South Carolina does not have a good defense ranking 107th vs. the run, and 81st vs. the pass in S&P ratings.  The last 3 opponents for Florida on the road were balanced to very good defenses.  30/1, 113/17 (Kentucky), and 19/7 (LSU).

South Carolina has allowed every opponent to run for 150+ yards, and 5 to rush for over 200.  That sets things up for Florida to have a very good game here offensively and they should not lose with everything in front of them.  Last week was a good game for them to wake up and I will remind everyone that in that game they were a bit flat coming off their best performance of the year against Georgia, in their biggest rivalry game.  I have a lot faith and trust in Jim McElwain and I just don’t think this South Carolina team can match the intensity that Florida will bring in this game.  Florida has every edge overall, and in conference play from third down offense, defense to red zone offense and defense and TO margin.  They are even significant advantages I would say and Florida has had a tougher overall schedule.  South Carolina has been playing better of late, but that’s just giving us value here.

Air Force +1.5 4.4* play

Utah State lost last week to New Mexico.  New Mexico is ranked 93rd in stopping the run and held Utah State to 78 yards on 37 carries.  That is a major red flag as Utah State needs to run the ball to win averaging 5.32 yards per carry in their wins and just 3.13 in losses.  The problem is this team has struggled on the road 3.50 yards per carry and rank 96th in adjusted rushing yard stats.  They face an Air Force run defense that is very good actually this Air Force defense overall is very good, but 34th in adjusted run defense which is the key here.  Air Force went on the road against Michigan State and held them under 2 yards per carry.  I think they are capable of holding Utah State in check here.  Air Force has held every opponent under 160 yards rushing with the exception of Navy (loss 33-11), and Utah State when held under 160 yards are 0-4 on the season.  Make it 0-5 in my opinion.

Air Force running game as typically struggled against Utah State, but there are a lot of red flags that this Utah State’s run defense is not as good.  They have allowed 11 rushing TD’s in their last 4 games alone (Air Force run defense has allowed 9 all season). Utah State’s run defense has allowed 2 games of 270+ yards rushing in their last 3 games overall and both against a 59th ranked defense and 48th.  Air Force 2nd in the nation in running the ball and are definitely more capable at home with a 5.5 yard per carry average.  They have in the past struggled against this defense, but I think playing at home and the fact that Utah State is allowing 75% conversions of TD’s in the red zone in conference play 71% overall is a huge factor. 

Utah State is also -5 TO margin on the road, Air Force is +5. Air Force also strong advantages on 3rd down offense and defense, and in the red zone as we mentioned.  They are also being penalized nearly 3 times less than Utah State, and special teams efficiency is about even with Utah State ranking 37th and Air Force coming in at 42nd.  I would expect the home field advantage to give Air Force the advantage there as well.  Take Air Force to win this weekend.

Georgia +2 3.3*

Auburn is off a huge win over Texas A&M last week on the road. I’m not surprised at all that they went on the road as a 7 point dog and win outright by 16 points covering the spread by 23 and I think a huge adjustment in this week’s line has already been made.  This was a good match up for Auburn as A&M was 115th vs. the run, and for Auburn to have success right now they have to run the ball, but stopping the run and running the ball this week will not be an advantage they enjoy.  That goes to Georgia who actually has the better and more balanced defense, and the running game that is much better.

I took a look at what each team did overall and in conference and Georgia is ranked 12th running the ball in the country averaging 5.6 yards per carry, 5.18 in conference play, they go up against the Auburn run defense that ranks 70th in yards per carry defense and also has given up 19 TD’s 13 in 6 conference games.  This could be a huge game for Georgia who struggled with their running game for a while after the Chubb game (2 games), but have been able to coach around it implementing the wild cat with Sony Michael.  Georgia has out gained the opposing run defense average in 6 of their 8 games and sometimes doubling it.  We saw Auburn’s defense hold opponents under in 6 of 8 games, but not in dominating fashion and LSU ran all over them.

For Auburn who runs the ball 65% of the time they need to run the ball averaging over a yard per carry more in their wins than their losses.  The problem is they are only averaging 4.10 yards per carry on the season and have been worse of late and just 3.98 in conference play.  Auburn’s rushing offense has faced an average 53rd ranked defense, and Saturday they face the 30th ranked defense.  Auburn has ran for more yards per carry vs. the opposing run defense just 3 out of their 8 games while Georgia’s defense has held opposing rushing offenses under their season average in 7 of 8 games.

In adjusted run defense according to football outsiders Georgia ranks 25th while Auburn ranks 76th.  Auburn ranks 57th in adjusted rushing offense, but Georgia comes in at 7th.  Georgia is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games I think this line has some value and their defense certainly played better last week holding Kentucky to 180 yards and 3 points.  Auburn’s defense played well but still allowed 300+ yards and were lucky to get 3 interceptions.  Auburn’s third down defense not very good and they were lucky they allowed just 10 points as A&M converted 10 of 16 third downs. I am worried about Georgia’s turnovers, but if they play a clean game like they are capable of they should win this game by a TD or more

USF +8.5 TEASER  w/ FLORIDA GATORS -1.5 4.4* PLAY

Two top 50 defenses meet on Saturday night, this is a huge game for South Florida who wants to announce they are back to being a solid team.  This team has definitely flown under the radar and can pull within 1 game with a win here in their AAC division.  At this point Temple is over rated in my opinion we were lucky to cover the spread in the Notre Dame game, and their 19 forced turnovers have really saved them in spots like the Cinci game.  This is a difficult trip playing at night as well, and I expect a very tight game as South Florida has only 11 turnovers on the season.

South Florida also very efficient on offense with the running game ranking 21st, and a passing game that can beat you when they want.  Quinton Flowers has done a great job, he’s a mobile QB, something that Temple has had issues with and Marlon Mack is arguably the best RB in this conference.  Temple has not played well on the road -36 yards per game, South Florida +137 per game and recent common opponent on the road of East Carolina shoed South Florida at +222 yards, and Temple at -56.  Getting over a TD I really like this team when you tease them.

Florida Gators -1.5

I really like the Gators in this spot.  They really need another impressive win to get back on the college football playoff comitee’s radar and South Carolina has been playing better so this is a perfect spot for them to do so.  This line has already moved 3 points in our favor from 10.5 down to 7.5 and I’m going to move it 6 more.  The value is already there with Florida failing to look impressive against Vanderbilt last week, but a lot of teams have failed vs. Vanderbilt who has a really good defense.  South Carolina does not have a good defense ranking 107th vs. the run, and 81st vs. the pass in S&P ratings.  The last 3 opponents for Florida on the road were balanced to very good defenses.  30/1, 113/17 (Kentucky), and 19/7 (LSU).

South Carolina has allowed every opponent to run for 150+ yards, and 5 to rush for over 200.  That sets things up for Florida to have a very good game here offensively and they should not lose with everything in front of them.  Last week was a good game for them to wake up and I will remind everyone that in that game they were a bit flat coming off their best performance of the year against Georgia, in their biggest rivalry game.  I have a lot faith and trust in Jim McElwain and I just don’t think this South Carolina team can match the intensity that Florida will bring in this game.  Florida has every edge overall, and in conference play from third down offense, defense to red zone offense and defense and TO margin.  They are even significant advantages I would say and Florida has had a tougher overall schedule.  South Carolina has been playing better of late, but that’s just giving us value here.

Virginia Tech +150 2* play

I'll take the Hokies here, as Georgia Tech has beaten 1 FBS team.  Although I think both teams are inconsistent and better than their record shows the Hokies are healthier at this point of the season.  This should be a fun back and forth game, and in the end we definitely will have a shot to cash.  Virginia Tech is as healthy as ever, and gets extra time to prepare for the triple option which has not been as good this season averaging just 4.5 yards per carry in conference play compared to over 5.5 each of the last 3years.  Bud Foster's group should be ready although I'm concerned about the youth in their secondary if they have to come up and make plays.  6 of the last 7 meetings have been decided by a posession so if you wanted to take the 3 or 3.5 points I wouldn't blame you.  3.5 is not available to me and +150 are great odds on this number.

Frank Beamer announced his retirement and I think his players will play inspired football still trying to get to a bowl game.  The offense is better than it has been in years past and definitely more balanced with Michael Brewer in there.  He's not turning the ball over which is the key here because Georgia Tech will force some turnovers as their corners definitely take some chances going for the ball.  That should leave the door open for some double moves, and Virginia Tech can also run the ball with the emergence of Travon McMillian who has 4 games in a row with 96 yards rushing or more and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry.  Georgia Tech ranks 92nd in adjusted rush defense, 51st vs. the pass, 84th in success rate.  Virginia Tech ranks 31st in adjusted run defense and 8th in success rate.  VA Tech has only allowed 1 team to run over 200 yards this season that was Ohio State in game 1 which really skewed their defensive stats as Ohio State averaged nearly 10 yards per carry.  This unit has gotten better and is only allowing 3.52 yards per carry in conference play.

[b]Western Mich +3 4.3* NCAAF POD[/b]

I'm going to take Western Michigan here, as the value is just too high on Bowling Green. I would argue the wrong team is favored here.  I do not think Bowling Green on a neutral field is a 6 point favorite, and the MAC West division teams are always better than the MAC East.  With that said Western Michigan has had the stronger schedule.  I also thinkg Bowling Green 4-0 ATS their last 4 games are due with an inflated line.  I faded them last week and lost, but the final score of 62-24 was not even close to telling the full story.  Bowling Green has now made Vegas look like fools as they have been off by 12.5, 36.5, and 35, and 17.5.  I know we are getting value here with Western Michigan and I think they just win the game here tonight. 

Western Michigan is the more balanced offense and arguably the most balanced offense that Bowling Green has faced year to date.  They also in my opinion have the better defense.  Just look at what they did against Ohio on the road vs. what Bowling Green did against Ohio last week at home giving up over 500 yards.  Western Michigan has some serious talent at WR in Daniel Braverman who I don't think Bowling Green will have an answer for.  Western Michigan is also 17th in the nation at running the ball, and they have just 3 turnovers in their last 6 games.  They will control the clock tonight and not make mistakes which will be the key to winning this game.  Ohio possessed the ball for 37 minutes last week and 299 yards rushing, but lost the game.  I expect Western Michigan to do a better job in this one.  

No disrespect to Matt Johnson or Bowling Green, but I just like Western Michigan a bit more.  The biggest key here for me that made this a POD on the money line.  Western Michigan penalized just 5 times  per game while Bowling Green sits at 9.2 per game.  Western Michigan is ranked 29th in special teams efficiency and Bowling Green is ranked 113th.  The little things will decide the game, and I think this spread should have been a pk or small favors for Western Michigan.  I'll take this value every time. 

Central Michigan +4 3.3* play

We have a few things working for us in this match up between a couple of MAC teams still in contention for the MAC West title.  Central Michigan is home and an under dog over a key number of 3.  They have faced a very challenging schedule early in non-conference play with Oklahoma State, Michigan State, and Syracuse.  Toledo ranks 115th having faced and beat Arkansas early, but gave up 500+ yards in doing so.  Central Michigan has a few extra days to prepare for this game while Toledo is in a look ahead spot coming off a crushing loss to Northern Illinois.  Toledo will get Bowling Green next week, and it's a look ahead because they have taken care of the Chippewas with 5 straight wins, and none of those have been close.  Toledo does not know what it's like to lose to this team, but they may find out tonight.

Really both these teams are one dimensional on offense, but I think the home team benefits the most form this.  Central Michigan is good with their passing game led by QB Cooper Rush who is arguably the most under rated QB in the nation ranking 26th in QB rating.  Toledo is one of the best teams running the ball and have done so successfully even in their loss against Northern Illinois last week, but Phillip Ely really is not a good QB.  He's inaccurate and has 5 interceptions over the last two weeks.

When looking at which defense will step up it's clear that Central Michigan has faced a lot more quality running teams than Toledo has faced passing teams.  Toledo has faced just 2 teams inside the top 85 in passer rating and both are more well known for their running game in Northern Illinois and Arkansas.  Cooper Rush has a ton of options at his disposal, and will be at home where his offensive line has done a better job protecting.  This is just Toledo's third road game, they have a 1.42 sack % on the road, and I think they'll have issues tonight.  I do expect this game to be close, but..

Central Michigan is a tough team to beat, and I still think Toledo is getting too much credit from the odds makers.  Toledo is very heavily penalized 8.4 per game, 10.7 on the road compared to 6.6 for the Chippewas, and they are -2 TO margin on the road, -3 in conference play compared with +5 at home, +4 conference for the Chippewas.  The Chippewas also very good on third down holding opponents to 32%, and in the red zone holding opponents to 51% TD's, 38% at home, 37.5% in conference play and have already beaten Northern Illinois.  The key is whether or not they can get Toledo into passing down situations, and I believe they can they rank 51st vs. the run, 2.8 ypc allowed over their last 3 games so they are getting better, and have allowed 3.36 at home this year.  The schedule does not indicate the type of running teams they have faced, but Syracuse, Michigan State, Oklahoma State, and Northern Illinois all good running teams.

Oregon -3.5 +100 3* play

Oregon is simply a different team with Vernon Adams in there at QB.  The last two road games for Cal has given up 70 points to teams that don't have as good of offense as Oregon has or is capable of.  We have seen Oregon's offense kick it into high gear since Adams has returned.  Adams in back to back road wins has 6 TD 's and 1 INT, coming back home will typically mean good things! Cal was home last week against USC and played extremely well with USC in a difficult spot, but again they could not win.  We actually gave Cal out as a play last week and got a push at +6, but I think they are in big trouble here on the road against Oregon.  The 13 turnovers in conference play won't help them either, take the Ducks. 

Nebraska +4 2.2* play

Listen Nebraska is not nearly as bad as they have looked, Michigan State coming off the bye week, but haven't played well on the road.  I like Nebraska as a shocking upset here today.  This is essentially the Cornhuskers playoff game sure they get Iowa at the end of the season, but this is the game Nebraska wants and needs if they are going to get back to a bowl game they have to win out.

Maryland +11.5 5.5* play

I like the value we are getting here with the Terrapins who have been playing great football since firing their head coach. Maryland also has faced the #1 toughest schedule compared to Wisconsin at 82. They have been one of the unluckiest teams in the country as well and have -9 TO’s in their last 2 games otherwise they could have taken down Iowa or Penn State.  Maryland has had a tough schedule as well facing Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State , Michigan, Bowling Green and West Virginia, but this is home coming week they still have a shot at a bowl game and Wisconsin comes in over hyped off a huge win against Rutgers.  Wisconsin also not very good at forcing turnovers 13 on the season, just 6 interceptions which should give Maryland a shot here.

Ironically Wisconsin is not the better running team in this game as Maryland is ranked 36th in yards per carry compared to Wisconsin who is ranked 63rd.  Maryland has rushed for 5 yards per carry in each of their last 3 games against some very good defenses in Penn State (30th run defense),  Iowa (7th run defense), Ohio State (33rd run defense).  The dual threat QB with Perry Hills should give Wisconsin some issues on the road seeing as though they are allowing 5.62 yards per carry on the road, and the last time they faced something close to a dual threat QB in Nebraska they gave up 5.30 yards per carry.  So I expect Maryland to stay in this game, their pass defense is better than stats have shown as they have given up big games to Bowling Green (3rd in QB rating),  West Virginia, Ohio State (29th QB rating), Penn State (48th).  Other than those games this team has been very good against the pass, and their run defense is very under rated allowing 2.8 ypc in their last 3 games, and 3.32 in conference eplay.

Of course we know that Wisconsin wants to run the ball, and many would suspect they are back after their performance a week ago with Corey Clement returning to action with 115 yards on 11 carries.  However, Rutgers 105th in rushing YPC, and they allow over 6 on the road Wisconsin had just 5.5.  Otherwise this rushing offense has not been good just 2 TD’s in 3 road games, and a 3.42 ypc average, 3.69 in conference play.  Take the Terrapins here with good value.

Cincinnati +8.5 4.4* play

I love the Bearcats in this spot, they were supposed to be the favorites in this conference yet they come into this game at 5-3 and have had to overcome adversity in multiple scenarios this year which have made them a better team.  I really think they come into this game with a chip on their shoulder, and hungry for a chance to get back into this race.  You could argue they have played 3 or 4 teams that are better than Houston.  They played Memphis, Temple, Miami, and BYU losing 3 of the 4.  Their game against Temple they absolutely should have won as they were +262 yards in that game, but turned the ball over 5 times which is a big key in this game.  If the Bearcats can be no more than -1 TO in this game there is no way they don’t cover the spread in my opinion.  They will have a shot to win this game.  They are -9 on the season, Houston +15 biggest thing that separates these two teams, but Cincinnati has cleaned it up with only 3 turnovers in their last 4 games.

Strength of schedule means a lot here.  Houston has played Louisville and that’s about it.  Louisville with a nice defense, but absolutely no offense.  There is a lot to like about this match up when you consider the hype Houston is getting, and the fact that they most certainly are looking past a 5-3 team and towards the showdown with Memphis next week.  Houston has the 123rd toughest schedule, and I don’t think I would call it tough.  Here are the defenses Houston has faced since Louisville, 127, 113, 119, 87, 117, 40 (Vanderbilt 4 TO’s, no offense).  I’m not saying the Bearcats have a good defense, but they have a better offense than any of these teams, and they are great on third down allowing 24% conversions, they are also great in the red zone and have improved on defense as the season has gone along.  Cinci is tested too holding Memphis and BYU on the road to 5-22 on third downs. 

I also think this line is inflated the last 3 games Houston has gotten into the rankings by covering the spread and then some.  Their last 3 games have a MOV ATS of 23, 28, and 14 that is sure to get you too much credit the following week.  I mentioned Cinci’s offense which is ranked 9th in yards per play.  Here is a look at the offenses Houston has faced 108, 84, 38 (absolutely no defense), 95 (allowed 28 points), 120, 122, 117.  This team relies on pressuring the QB and forcing turnovers ranked #1 in both.  Cinci is 38th in protecting their QB, but probably better with Kiel in there, since he missed a few games Hayden Moore.  Moore much less experienced took 11 sacks in 159 passing attempts compared to Kiel who took 3 in 162.

Oklahoma St +4.5 3.3* play

Both teams come into this game undefeated, both teams have had weak schedules with similar results.  The only difference is the fact that TCU is coming off two big victories and Oklahoma Stat gave up 53 points at Texas Tech, and TCU bias before the season.  Those are the reasons TCU is favored, but I can tell you the defenses this team has faced have been awful ranking 96th in total yards allowed, 97, 84, 103, 127, 121, and 25th (Minnesota – 23 points).  Oklahoma State ranks 41st and is very good at home against the pass and the run.  They also possess a top ranked pass rush ranking 4th in sack %, and have forced 19 turnovers.

TCU will struggle in this game, and I see Boykin making a couple of mistakes.  They haven’t faced a single pass rush like this, and Oklahoma State has been known to pull upsets in Stillwater.  I also like the fact that the Cowboys are ranked 14th in special teams efficiency and are better in tackles for loss, and in turnover margin as well as penalties per game.  The little things make the difference.  I still feel like too much stock is been given into last week.  Oklahoma State gave up 53 to Texas Tech on the road while TCU gave up 52.  There is plenty to like about both defenses, but home field advantage is on the side of the Cowboys.  Remember in 2013 they beat #13 Baylor 49-17 here as a 7.5 point underdog.

**TEASER - BAMA -0.5 AT HOME, FLORIDA ST +17 ON THE ROAD ANALYSIS BELOW

Alabama -0.5 Teaser

I like Alabama at home here for various reasons.  First of all when Alabama loses they lose due to the opposing QB play.  The last 6 times this team has been beaten they have given up 17 TD’s and just 2 interceptions.  LSU runs the ball 70% of the time which falls right into what Alabama wants to do.  Alabama is #3 in stopping the run, and they are at home here.  They have held each team under their season average with the exception of Georgia who had 1 carry for 83 yards which have tipped the numbers and that game was on the road and in garbage time.

The other thing I like about Alabama is they have faced a far tougher schedule and this is just LSU’s third road game and they struggled in both their other two against Miss State early in the season, a team replacing a ton of guys on both sides of the ball, and Syracuse (enough said).  LSU has faced 1 top 50 offense in SEC play, meanwhile Alabama has faced 5 who rank in the top 50 in yards per play.  LSU has only faced 2 defenses ranked in the top 50 in yards per play allowed, Alabama has faced 4.  Alabama should be able to hold u for all 4 quarters, while I don’t trust LSU who rank 34th overall in adjusted defense, but 114th in the third quarter 47th in the 4th.

Florida State +17 Teaser

I love teasing these primetime games, because the lines are definitely sharp with Vegas taking so much action.  In both cases I believe we are getting value.  Clemson is everyone’s favorite team right now and while I have huge respect for them this conference still goes through Florida State.  Florida State is getting healthy at the right time, and I think they will have plenty of options in the running game.  On the flip side Florida State’s defense will keep them in this game.  This is the most complete and balanced team Clemson has faced all year long with the exception of maybe Notre Dame, who should have beaten Clemson in reality in their own building.  I believe Florida State’s defense is a bit better than Notre Dame while the offense is a bit behind, but very comparable.  Florida State has just 2 turnovers all year, and I see no reason for that changing while Clemson has 14 including 1 in every single game.

[b]MTSU -2.5 4.4* PLAY[/b]

The Blue Raiders sit at 3-5, and need this win to stay alive in the bowl hunt.  They face a 7-1 Marshall team, but are favorites.  Public backing Marshall of course, but I like Middle Tennessee we backed them 2 weeks ago, and lost, but that was on the road while now they have extra rest, Marshall dosn't and they will be at home where they have only lost to Vanderbilt, but should have won.  This is a balanced offense and the best that Marshall has faced all year.  Look at their schedule Marshall has not faced a singl offense as good as Middle Tennessee.  I expect the extra time, and the fact that Marshall hasn't played anyone to play huge dividends for the Blue Raiders.

DUKE +7.5 3.3**

I really like Duke here with revenge on their mind from last year’s home beating 45-20 to North Carolina who had 593 yards of offense in that game.  That game was still closer than the final score, and Duke’s defense is much improved this year as is North Carolina’s, but I think Duke’s defense is the real deal.  Duke ranks 6th in yards per play, and this is by far the best defense that North Carolina has faced, and I also think the strengths of each defense gives Duke the advantage, because North Carolina is 70th vs. the run and this is very good for Duke, because when they have faced teams ranked 61st or worse vs. the run they average 37.4 ppg and that has happened 5 times this season.  Duke, also much more balanced ranking 8th in run defense, and 17th in pass defense.

North Carolina, does have 2 extra days to prepare, and I’m definitely factoring that in here, but this is a big rivalry game, Duke’s players are saying everything right the week after the refs cost them a win against Miami.  In reality that game did not matter is what they said this is the game that matters and the winner is likely to go on to face Clemson in the ACC Championship game.  I also like the advantage in the passing game for Duke.  Marqise Williams definitely prone to the interception with 7 on the year and he will be forced into some situations where everyone will know he’s passing which is not good.  It will be interesting to see how the Tar Heels adjust when they are not able to run the ball.  They’ve only faced 1 team in the top 60 in run defense.  UNC also scores with big plays, Duke one of the best in limiting big plays ranking 16th in isoPPP+.

North Carolina is getting a lot of credit here from the oddsmakers and I’m not buying it.  The improved defense is the main reason why and Gene Chizik definitely deserves some credit, but the red flag is there in their run defense, and not to mention the last 4 opponents are ranked 111th, 119th, 92nd, and 90th in yards per play.  Duke by no means is great on offense, but they have already played in games against good defenses and prevailed.  They also get a UNC run defense that’s not very good and that should help them greatly.

Other key stats in this game like 3rd downs and red zone are a wash, but where Duke has an advantage are in penalties per game, they have a major advantage on special teams ranking 2nd in the nation in special teams efficiency.  They are +34 in tackles for loss, they have 27 more tackles for loss than North Carolina who is +4 in tackles for loss which just goes to show you that this Duke team is for real on defense.  They are also +10 in sacks while UNC is +1.  

Missouri +8 5.5* NCAAF POD

The perception on the Missouri Tigers could not be any lower at the moment.  They scored 3, 6, and 3 points in their last 3 SEC games, but those were all against top 40 defenses and arguably 3 of the top 5 defenses in the SEC in Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Florida.  With that said Miss State still has a very good defense ranking 32nd in total yards allowed, but they haven't exactly had the toughest schedule.  The perception is that this team is as good as last year, but that simply is not true.  I also like the fact that Missouri is coming off the bye week which allows them to come up with a few schemes that should help the offense as we all know they need it.  Miss State really does not need to scheme as they feel good about themselves putting up 40+ points in each of their last 3 games.

Miss State is about to face the best defense they have faced all year.  The 40+ points in their last 3 is way inflated.  They have played Kentucky ranked in 90th in defense, Louisiana Tech and Troy.  Missouri is ranked 3rd in yards per play allowed, and they'll be at home.  MIss State struggled in their other 3 games vs. SEC opponents who also had bad defenses (exception LSU), putting up 17 against Auburn and Texas A&M.  We have an extremely low total here with Vegas expecting a low scoring game, and giving 8 points to the dog with the better defense I'll jump on board every time.

Miss

Ohio +20.5 3.3* play

I really like the line value we are getting here on the Bobcats, a well coached team.  First of all they come off two loses ATS where they were not even close to covering.  The odds makers were off by 27 and 38.5 points where Ohio missed covering the spread.  To avoid this they have inflated this number against Bowling Green, because they are coming off 3 straight covers and in their last 2 have covered the spread by 35 and 36 points.  

Ohio was not as bad as they looked in their last road game against Buffalo losing 41-17 as a road favorite.  They were -4 in the turnover margin game, which rarely happens as they are still +5 on the season.  Ohio can throw the football, and I feel it's a good match up against Bowling Green who is 113th vs. the pass.  Vick should have a very nice game here against Bowling Green's pass defense.  Ohio is top 50 in completion % and passing yards and I feel they will be able to put up enough points to cover this large spread.  Bowling Green also can throw the ball, but that matches right up against Ohio's strength on defense which is its pass defense.

Bowling Green will go up against Ohio's pass defense which has allowed 6 passing TD's all year with 9 interceptions.  They have not allowed over 300 yards passing to any QB's all year and while I think Matt Johnson will throw over 300 yards he will not look great doing so.  Johnson has been sacked already 24 times this year and goes up against Ohio's 19th ranked pass defense, this may be the best pass defense he has faced, and this is a team that's not all that balanced as their rushing attack leaves a lot to be desired.   

Bowling Green also the more penalized team here with 9.3 per game which is a lot, but what also concerns me is the fact that they are 114th in special teams efficiency while Ohio comes in at 60th, and committing just 5.8 penalties per conference game.  Bowling Green also goes up against a top 40 third down defense for just the 3rd time all year and they lost the other two.  Ohio allowing 32% conversions, and it has trickled over to their red zone defense which has allowed 42% TD conversions in the red zone and 35% in conference play.  A lot to like about Ohio catching 21 points here.

Northern Illinois +7 4.4* NCAAF POD

All three of Northern Illinois losses have been on the road, but they haven't played necessarily bad in those games and if for nothing less it gives us value in what is their biggest game of the year going up against Toledo who is 7-0 SU & ATS.  Vegas has to inflate these numbers, because of what this team has done, and to be honest their schedule is not nearly as challenging as Northern Illinois who had to face Ohio State nearly upset them, and Boston College, one of the best defenses in the nation on the road.  Northern Illinois covered both of those spreads.  Meanwhile Toledo faced Arkansas and really got a ton of credit for that win, but Arkansas should have won that game.  I don't know many teams with 500 yards of total offense who score 12 points, but that's what happened to Arkansas  as they out gained Toledo by 200.  Same thing against Iowa state which is very unimpressive of Toledo who actually got to host this game.  They were out gained by nearly 200 yards again and somehow they won.  Northern Illinois had two non-conference games as true road games Toledo did not.

Perception is definitely off on this Toledo team in my opinion as they continue to get a lot of hype because they are still undefeated, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that change tonight.  Northern Illinois has been here before 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games, and have extra time to prepare for Toledo who is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 with extra prep time.  Both teams need to run the ball to be successful, and Kareem Hunt is a very good RB for Toledo, but he's just not the same guy with those injuries.  Northern Illinois has the better RB here with Joel Bouagnon and Jordan Huff.  Their run defense has also been better ranking 29th in the nation and the only time they allowed more than 4 yards per carry was against Ohio State on the road.  Ohio State actually only had 162 yards rushing in the game, which is a season low for them.

Toledo's run defense has a lot of red flags they are allowing 4.17 yards per carry in conference play.  A conference schedule that has not featured anyone worth talking about as their 4 opponents have a combined 8-26 record.  They just got done allowing 400 total rushing yards in their last 2 games alone to Eastern Michigan and Umass who is 114th in the nation in rushing yards.  Toledo's passing game is also a bit shaky here with 5 interceptions in 4 conference games and Northern Illinois has a secondary featuring Shawn Lurry who leads the nation in interceptions.  Overall, it's a pretty even match up between passing offenses, but Northern Illinois seems to be a better team with just 5.8 penalties per game making 3rd downs certainly easier, and Toledo comes in with an amazing 9.8 penalties per game.  That's coaching, and I know Matt Campbell is getting a ton of praise, but you are not going to win this game with that type of a performance.

Both teams are good in the red zone on defense, and it will be huge to see which offense can convert better.  On the season Northern Illinois has been a bit better at 80% while Toledo comes in at 63%.  Overall no significant edge, and we get a TD to play with in a game where both defenses are holding opposing teams to under 50% in the red zone for TD%. I like my chances in this one with an inflated line it's hard for any team to move to 8-0 ATS, and I'm guessing Toledo won't be able to do it tonight in what should be a low scoring game.

Temple +11 5.5* NCAAF POD

I think it’s pretty clear that every time Notre Dame steps on the field they are going to have an inflated point spread, and I think that’s definitely clear against Temple here.  There is no doubt that Notre Dame has some momentum coming in, but they haven’t faced a defense like this all year with the exception of Clemson, a game on the road that they lost, but could have won.  The problem in that game is they started the game sluggish, and they have been notorious to getting off to slow starts.  The problem is they can’t afford that here against Temple who has very good coaching behind Matt Rhule.  This Temple team has outscored opponents 137 to 29 in the second half this year and there is no better sign of a good coach.

Temple also should be able to move the ball enough to cover this spread with Jahad Thomas having already proved against Penn State that he can run the ball against top defenses.  Thomas had 135 yards against a Penn State run defense ranked much higher in run defense than Notre Dame who ranks 85th in yardage and 90th in yards per carry.  Although those numbers are skewed a bit having faced Georgia Tech and Navy they gave up 590 yards to USC in their own building and were lucky to win by forcing 4 turnovers.

Temple is not going to turn the ball over, and I would actually bet that Temple wins the turnover margin.  Notre Dame has the tendency to turn the ball over with 20 in their last 9 games dating back to last season.  Temple has one of the best front 7 havoc rates in the country and at home they are sacking QB’s on 14% of their drop backs while Notre Dame is 84th at protecting their QB.  I expect Notre Dame to keep it on the ground for most of the game and that really favors us covering the spread here.  It’s worth noting that Notre Dame has not held an opponent other than Texas under 20 points all season, and Temple’s defense has been dynamite on third downs and in red zone defense.  Notre Dame on the road is converting just 18% of the time on third down which is a major concern in this game.  I really see Temple coming out strong in this one and coaching will keep them in this one late.  

Florida Gators -2 -105 3.3* play 

This game will decide the SEC East on neutral field.  This is a huge game and once again it’s time to fade Georgia’s head coach Mark Richt.  Florida will have the field advantage playing in Jacksonville, and I expect them to play their best game yet.  This is a game they dominated last year without the better head coach, and their QB Treon Harris only completed 3 passes in that game, but Florida still won 38-20.

Georgia will be without Nick Chubb, and we have seen the running game far less explosive without him as they only averaged 3 yards per carry at home against Missouri.  Their QB just simply can’t be trusted especially against a big time defense like this.  I expect Florida to win the battle of the defenses, and Jim McElwain to get a signature victory.  Both times Georgia had to step up and play a defense of this caliber they were unable to do so losing against both Alabama and Tennessee with just 27 total first downs.

Virginia +6 2.2* play

This would be a larger play in any other scenario featuring any other coach.  I’m not a big fan of Mike London at all, but it’s hard not to play this value here with Virginia who is much better than their schedule indicates.  Virginia has had a very challenging schedule this year, and Georgia Tech is coming off a very emotional win against Florida State on a blogged field goal returned for a TD.  I expect them to come out flat which could mean good things for Virginia.  There really is not a talent gap at all between these two teams so I expect the game to be close until the end.

Georgia Tech’s defense on the road has not been good and neither has their offense.  While they have faced 3 of the best defenses in the country on the road this year I do expect Virginia’s front 7 to play well as they have improved each in every year vs. this triple option under Mike London which is actually pretty surprising.  Georgia Tech is allowing nearly 5 yards per carry in conference play, and 5.33 on the road and I expect Virginia to be able to get that part of their game going which will be huge.  I also think Matt Johns can have success against this defense that is ranked 118th in havoc rate.  Johns had 4 interceptions in the second half of last week’s game against North Carolina, but Virginia still only lost by 13 points.  Johns should be able to take care of the ball against Georgia Tech, and If he does I see no reason why this team won’t be in the game until the end.  This was a team after all that nearly upset Notre Dame and probably should have.  They play excellent defense at home – 28% conversions allowed on third down and 43% TD% in the red zone.  Georgia Tech has not been able to convert on third down 19% on the road and 30% in conference play.  I like Georgia Tech here to have a shot to pull off the upset.  It won’t save London’s job, but this is a perfect scenario against a team in a serious hang over situation.

Virginia Tech -125 3* play

I’m just going to take the Hokies on the money line here with points at a premium with a total at 37.5 points.  However, I think the 4 OT game against Duke, despite it being a loss gives the Hokies some offensive momentum heading into this game which is huge when you talk about playing Boston College.  Tech was able to get a lot of reps in the red zone against a Duke defense that is no joke.  Duke actually ranks 3rd overall in the nation in yards per play allowed ahead of Boston College.

The Hokies actually have the tools to move the ball on Boston College.  They have a tailback that can run and take it to the edge in Travon McMillan averaging 6.36 yards per carry, but more importantly Michael Brewer can throw the ball he had 3 TD’s and 270 yards against a Duke pass defense that is really good.  Boston College is better vs. the run, and have some question marks in the secondary.  They rank 114th in defensive back havoc rate (interceptions + pass break ups).  Brewer can stretch the field a bit to as this offense has a 8.1 yards per pass attempt on the road. Boston College is also dealing with a ton of injuries and don’t even know who their QB is. 

Boston College covered last week at Louisville, but had only 79 total yards.  I leaned towards BC last week, and they covered, but I was not about to back them in that game and glad I didn’t have to rely on a blocked punt return TD and 4 forced turnovers to cover the spread.  Special teams are not something that Boston College even typically enjoys an edge in ranking 126th in special teams efficiency compared to Virginia Tech’s 8th ranking.

The other thing I like in this match up is the fact that Virginia Tech is not turning the ball over for the most art, and they are much better in the red zone and on third down which is probably the biggest key of the game here.  Virginia Tech’s defense allows 22% on third down in their wins, and Boston College 47% in their wins, but BC is converting just 21% in conference play and are 0-5.  The Hokies do not posess the defense they have in the past, but Bud Foster can still put together a game plan against a team like Boston College ranked dead last (128th in yards per play)

Auburn +7.5 4.4* play

There are many red flags regarding this Ole Miss team and I just think Auburn is improving with each week.  They are coming off a tough loss, but being back at home should help that, and Ole Miss is off a big win at home in dominating fashion and this line is definitely a bit inflated because of that along with the “revenge factor” that everyone is talking about after Ole Miss lost last year 35-31 in dramatic fashion to Auburn.

I feel like I am backing the more balanced offense here.  Ole Miss is a completely different team on the road running the ball with 2.26 yards per carry, and they have struggled against some bad overall defenses like Memphis.  Auburn is getting better on defense and held Miss State, a better rushing offense to 2yards less per carry than their season average.  Auburn is also getting Carl Lawson back at DE for this game so the pass defense will definitely benefit as well.

I mentioned red flags, and it’s surrounding the QB play Chad Kelly.  First of all he’s got a QB rating of 129 in SEC play, and 185 outside.  To put it into perspective Auburn’s QB have a 125 QB rating in SEC play and have had 3 of their 4 games on the road.  Auburn also suffered last week from a ton of drops otherwise they really could have dominated Arkansas.  7 drop passes does not help a QB, and it typically is something that is easily corrected.  The other red flag is the fact that Ole Miss offense is converting just 31% of third downs on the road, and 33% in conference play.  Compare that with Auburn who is converting 46% at home and 44% in conference play, but since they made the QB switch they are now converting 54% of the time, because they are a pass and run threat and Ole Miss defense on the road has not been nearly as good allowing 55% in 3 road games.  This has trickled over to the red zone where they are only converting 41% of their trips into TD’s in SEC play, and they are allowing 93% in conference play.  That’s a huge stat considering Auburn does not give up big plays.

I have backed this Auburn a lot this year and have been wrong a lot, but I have watched nearly all of their games and the value right now is really high, because they haven’t been winning games, but I have noticed them playing a lot better.  Ole Miss is a team that also turns the ball over quite a bit 19 on the season and Auburn has just 1 turnover in their last 4 games overall and they are only penalized 4 times per game.  They also enjoy a significant edge in special teams ranking 7th in special teams efficiency while Ole Miss comes in at 74th.

Connecticut +7 buy hook 3.5* play

I'm going to take Uconn, they looked bad on the road again, but this is a team that has not had a lot of opporutnity to play equal talent at home and tonight is the night I think is a must win for this team at 3-5.  They still have goals and a chance at a bowl game, and I have liked what I have seen from the offense and Bryant Shireffs has played extremely well at QB.  They were able to move the ball against South Florida at home with over 500 yards of offense and East Carolina has a very similar defense.

East Carolina does not have the running game that South Florida has which is what killed Uconn in that game against the Bulls.  I also think this is a tough situation for EAst Carolina.  I don't see how they are up for this game.  They led at the half against Temple and completely were out coached in the second half losing 24-14.  I think that takes it's toll, because they are not going to get into the mix in the AAC and I see a hang over spot here tonight.  Uconn and East Carolina also have two common opponents in BYU and Navy.  Uconn was outscored by 14.5 points per game while East Carolina was outscored 15.5 points per game. I give Uconn an excellent chance to win this game.

Miami OH +7.5 3.3* play 

Certainly not a game to get too excited about with what is on the card tonight, but I just do not see an edge in any of the other games.  This game provides tremendous value in my opinion it's one of the few games Miami OH will be able to have a chance at wining.  They have had a very difficult schedule and have been on the road for 4 of the last 5 weeks, and when you are a bad team that's just bad news.  Buffalo on the other hand has been at home for the most part and have shown they really struggle on the road.  Buffalo beat Ohio last week 41-17 and it's completely misleading as they had 2 interceptions for TD's.  I excpect this to be a close game and I wouldn't back a team on the road by more than a tD that is converting 27% of their third downs, allowing 54% in conference play.  Has a red zone offense TD% of 33% in conference play, and a red zone defense of 73% overall.  Their offense rushes for less than 4 yards, and allows more than 4 and their QB play is nothing great.  They are also penalized nearly 10 times a game on the road.  I think the Red Hawks realize this is one of the few chances to win a conference game and will rise up.

Texas A&M +5.5 3.3* play

Both teams come off losses last week, but Ole Miss flat out lost to Memphis while A&M really beat themselves with 3 pick sixes which really inflated the final score thus creating some value with the line this week.  A&M actually had 15 tackles for loss against Alabama last week, and had 4 total turnovers compared with Ole Miss who beat Alabama on the road by forcing 5 turnovers.  Funny A&M still better TO margin in conference play.

This is a good match up vs. A&M, because their weakness is in run defense and Ole Miss is really struggling to run the ball this year and only averaging 2.96 yards per carry in conference play.  A&M strength on offense is passing the ball, and Ole Miss weakness on defense is in pass defense, and they are just 70th in adjusted sack rate.  Meanwhile Ole Miss offensive strength is in their passing game, but the strength of A&M is their pass defense, and they are ranked #1 in in adjusted sack rate and passing down sack rate.  Ole Miss does get their best offensive lineman back for this game in Laremy Tunsil, but he has not played in a while and this is a hell of a game to return at LT.  I actually think he could hurt them in this game with holding penalties.

I think Kyle Allen rebounds, and I think he actually has the better supporting cast with Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, and Ricky Seals-Jones.  Tra Carson out of the backfield is also a weapon, but in a close game it’s match ups and A&M has been very good against the pass and in the red zone allowing just 41% TD%.  Take out the 4 turnovers against Alabama and the Aggies have just 6 turnovers.  I expect a very close game and Ole Miss actually is more turnover prone so I like the 5.5 points.

Middle Tenn +7.5 2.2*

I see some great value in this line given the fact that Louisiana Tech has the 104th strength of schedule while Middle Tennessee who has been pretty banged up through some of these games and is getting healthier has the 58th ranked strength of schedule.  Statistically it appears Louisiana Tech has an edge, but there are a few things I like about the Middle Tennessee much more.

First I think they have the better QB in Brent Stockstill who leads an up tempo attack and has several weapons including Richie James and Ed Batties who will be a great challenge for the LA Tech pass defense allowing a 158 QB rating in conference play.  Probably the biggest reason I like the Middle Tenn is their ability in the red zone and shows they have the better QB.  They are 75% in the red zone this year in TD% and their defense is allowing 57% meanwhile LA Tech who has an easier schedule 55% TD % in the red zone, 53% in conference play and has allowed an 80% TD % at home this year.

Ball State +7.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

There is tremendous value in this line as Central Michigan comes in with a 7-0 ATS record following a 44 point margin of victory ATS in their last game.  Meanwhile Ball State comes in off an 0-3 ATS run with a 26 point margin of loss ATS in their last game.  This line has been adjusted accordingly and I think we have a lot of value on the home dog.  Many people look at the trenches to see which team is better and that’s really where a game starts.  Looking at it from that perspective Ball State has the advantage in adjusted line yards on offense ranking 100th vs. 120th, but very very good in power success rate while defensively they come in at 97th compared to Central Michigan’s 108th. 

Central Michigan has a very under rated QB, and I have cashed in on this team multiple times backing Cooper Rush and company, but they are 0-4 on the road, and 0-5 in their last 5 vs. the MAC West.  Ball State has shown signs of success this year and played both Northern Illinois and Toledo tough.  Central Michigan’s offense is extremely one dimensional and I think they will have plenty of success but the defense is in for a long day.  I think Ball State will be able to put up some points here as they will be able to run and throw the ball.  First of all CMU allowing 5.24 yards per carry on the road, and their passing defense has been terrible allowing 9.8 yards per pass and a 182 QB rating on the road.

Enter Riley Neal, Ball State’s freshmen QB who has been very good with 10 TD’s to 2 interceptions, and even better in conference play with consistent play against 2 top defenses in Toledo ranked 15th, and Northern Illinois ranked 34th.  Chippewas rank 115th in QB rating on the road and 71st overall.  In this game I think home field advantage is worth a lot and I think it will be very close.

Arkansas / Auburn Under 51 3.3* play

I feel really good about this under in what I’m calling the disappointing bowl.  Both teams have extra preparation time which means the defenses should have a leg up in my opinion.  Arkansas has 14 days with the bye week, and their defense has quietly been improving.  If you remember last year they had extra prep 3 times and the defense allowed a total of 21 points combined in those three games.  Their opponents were LSU, Alabama, and Texas, now that’s impressive!  We have already seen signs of it with their defensive effort against Alabama and there is no reason to believe it won’t continue against Auburn.

Why?  Well Auburn’s offense just is not explosive, and struggle when they get into scoring position.  Their passing game ranks 126th in explosiveness now that Duke Williams is off the team they really do not have down the field guys, and Arkansas is pretty good along the defensive line ranking 5th in adjusted line and 28th in rushing S&P.

On the flip side this is a bad match up for Auburn’s defensive front.  It’s actually the worst front 7 that Arkansas has faced all year and I expect them to really just play their brand of football.  Hold onto the ball for 35 minutes and run it down their throat.  They too have struggled in the red zone and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that repeat itself as they are 44% in red zone TD%.  They too are 117th in explosive ness from the running game, and although they rank 23rd in explosiveness in the passing game I don’t think it’s wise for them to try to make too many big plays down the field knowing that Auburn’s 1st in explosiveness pass defense.  If there is one thing this Auburn team does well is they limit the big plays.  They play a bend but don’t break defense, which matches up well against Arkansas and their slow methodical offensive game plan.  Auburn’s defense is not that bad in that they are ranked 59th in adjusted line yards.

I expect an Arkansas win, but wouldn’t be surprised with either outcome.  I really like the fact that we are getting over 50 points with the idea that Auburn’s defense is terrible, and Auburn should also score points when I don’t think that is the case in this match up.  Auburn also not running their typical offense ranking 101st in pace and I don’t see any reasons why that changes here.  The under is 7-0 in Arkansas last 7 games following a bye week, 10-1 in their last 11 overall.

San Diego State +5 -105 5.5* NCAAF POD

These teams are like looking into a mirror yet we get the home dog on national TV with 5 points to spare.  Rocky Long is probably one of the most under rated coaches in college football and this team has gotten better and better with each passing week.  Utah State is exceptional on defense, but lets be honest this line is inflated for their blow out win against Boise State last week where they were able to force 8 turnovers.  In fact the only games this team has won by more than 5 points have been games where they are +3, +2, and +7 in turnover margin.  San Diego State just does not turn the ball over and their QB Maxwell Smith has not thrown an interception in 5 games.

Both teams like to run first, and rely on their defenses to stop the run on the other side.  Both defenses are top 10 in run defenses and there is no significant advantage although San Diego State has the better running back in D.J. Pumphrey who is very very good and only getting better with 424 yards in his last 3 games.  San Diego State’s offensive line is starting to gel after breaking in 3 new OL, but they also got their best player back last week in guard Darrell Greene who was suspended for the first 6 games.

Rocky Long has his players more motivated than they would have been for this game after seeing Utah State beat Boise State.  Both teams are undefeated in conference play and are favored now to win their division.  Rocky Long is 18-7-1 ATS in his last 26 conference games, and they should have the overall advantage in special teams.  They also are far better in red zone defense as Utah State has allowed an alarming 68% TD% success rate.

Tulsa +10.5 3.3* play

Tulsa is prime for an upset of Memphis, as this team is a top 10 offensive juggernaut and very similar to Bowling Green whom Memphis struggled with on the road earlier this season.  Justin Fuente already asking coaches how he can get his players to focus for their next game after they upset Ole Miss at home with the biggest win in their school history.  Fuente sasked Mack Brown and Gary Paterson how to deal with distractions and admitted this.  He also said his players were singing and dancing in the locker room.  These are kids I’m not surprised with that said there is a lot of talk about a 12-0 season already and nothing is given in this league.

Tulsa is a very under rated team that actually has a better pass defense than Memphis who is ranked 97th to Tulsa’s 90th.  Tulsa actually more respectable at home allowing a 117 QB rating.  Tulsa is 0-2 in conference play and very hungry to get a win here.  Their first two opponents were very good in Houston and East Carolina who they faced on the road.  Both considerably better than Memphis is against the pass.  Actually when Tulsa hosted Houston it was a reasonably tight game that Tulsa should have been closer than a 14 point loss.  Greg Ward killed them rushing for 200 yards from the QB spot and Memphis does not really have that weapon in Paxton Lynch.

Tulsa’s offense should get balance, because Memphis besides the Ole Miss game has not been able to stop the run allowing over 4 yards per carry on the road including 4+ yards per carry to Kansas who is ranked 126th in rushing yardage.  A balanced offense should provide a ton of opportunities for Tulsa to cover this game.  I also see Memphis coming out flat in this game considering they have fell behind by 10 or more in 4 of their 6 games.  I definitely think Tulsa has a shot to win this game, but if I can grab Memphis at pk during live betting it will provide a great opportunity for a free wager to win double which is what I’ll be looking at if Tulsa can get up by 10 or more.

UL-Lafayette +8.5 3.3* play

The value here is on the Rajin Cajuns in this one getting 8.5 points, and I just do not see a ton of distance between these two teams.  Lafayette has to travel, but it's not a short week for them as they haven't played since the 10th and have an extra 3 days of preparation.

Both teams rely on running the ball to win games, and the Rajin Cajuns have the better running game behind Elijah Mcguire who is very under rated and went for nearly 300 yards in last year's match up.  I really like their offensive line that ranks 11th in the country in sack %, and 22nd in rushing yards per carry.  I think they hold a huge edge in that department and it's a big key to winning success on the road.  Arkansas State's offensive line is ranked 88th in yards per carry and 110th in protecting their QB.

Of course Arkansas State's defense also looks better to this point, rushing defense especially, but looking at the adjusted run defensive numbers Arkansas State can't stop the run either ranking 90th.  They gave up 172 yards on only 29 carries to Idaho who was ranked 102nd in rushing offense, they also gave up 179 to an FCS team.  True, they held Missouri intact, but the Tigers have been dreadful on offense this year against everyone and rank 115th in rushing offense.

Lafayette's defense has struggled, but they are better in the red zone at least and Arkansas State really lacks the explosive play that will get them up big in this game in my opinion.  Arkansas State ranks 116th in explosiveness and 123rd in passing down success (2nd and 8 or longer , 3rd and 5 or longer).  Lafayette ranks 55th, and I really like what we have seen here from Jalen Nixon who is taking better care of the ball and is also a rushing threat.  Arkansas State got their guy back and we were lucky to cover the spread behind Fredi Knighten in last Tuesday's game their win 49-31 over South Alabama was very misleading and I think we could see an upset here tonight.

Take USC +7 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD

I love these type of situations.  USC has a great situational play without Sarkisan. I think the level of concentration with this team will increase dramatically.  I think the Trojans will rebound nicely as they tend to rebound well after a loss.  The perception is this team has given up, but I just don’t see it there is too much talent, and the extra preparation time and motivation from these coaches to prove themselves are all reasons to love USC.  Not to mention teams following a game against Navy tend to not cover the spread.  It’s a tough game to bounce back after with the way Navy blocks.  I’ll give you one great example – Ohio State played Navy to open the season and lost the next week hosting Virginia Tech.  Notre Dame themselves are 2-5 in games played the week after Navy.  Last year they lost by 22 as a 3 point dog after Navy, and in previous years they lost to Pitt as a 4.5 point favorite, beat Purdue but only by 3 as a 14 point favorite, beat Wake Forest by 7 but as a 13.5 point favorite, lost to Tulsa as a 9.5 point favorite in 2010, lost at Pitt by 5 as a 5.5 point underdog so they covered that spread by a ½ point.  In 2008 they lost to Syracuse following Navy as a 19.5 point underdog.  In 2007 they lost to Air Force following Navy by 18 points.  In fact they are just 1-9 ATS the last 10 seasons following the Navy match up.

Florida Gators +7.5 3.3* play 

I like the Gators in this spot even without Grier in their at QB , as they have a capable QB in Treon Harris who has looked better at times than Grier.  Harris should be used the right way by this coaching staff that I have a lot of faith in. McElwain took Garrett Grayson and improved his abilities sending him into the NFL from Colorado State which reminds me of what Urban Meyer did when he coached in the lower tier programs.  He gets the best out of his players, Greg McElroy, and A.J. McCarron come to mind.  Two other guys who had no business going to the NFL, but were drafted for what they did with McElwain helping them.

For Florida this is a revenge game and I’m giving them a shot to win.  First of all they lost by 3 last year with terrible QB play and 3 turnovers which is quite the accomplishment.  LSU’s defense this year also not as dominating as I think we all figured it would be as they have given up 20+ points to every opponent except Miss State (19).  Florida can win if they get to 20 or at least cover this spread.  LSU’s defense ranks 63rd in the front 7 in havoc rate compared to Florida’s 15th ranked and 6th overall when you add in their secondary. 

At the end of the day Florida can take more chances against this running game than most people because of the secondary they have.  I see Fournette getting his yards, but when they get into the red zone it’s going to be awfully difficult to score.  Meanwhile I think Florida’s offense has a few things that LSU will be caught off guard by with Harris and I think as long as they don’t get killed in the TO margin department they should have a chance to win late.  Florida just 5 turnovers lost on the year and +8 overall.

Texas A&M +4 3.3* SEC Showdown

I said a few weeks back that Georgia was a great match up for this Alabama team, because their offensive strength was running the ball, and they could not pass against this defense.  To beat Alabama you have to be able to pass the ball.  Sure Ole Miss benefited from a bunch of turnovers, but if you can get a lead against Alabama you start forcing them outside their comfort zone and A&M’s defense is dramatically improved from last year and rank 11th in havoc rate overall.

Over the last 4 seasons (including this year), Alabama has lost 6 games, and in each one it’s been the same thing.  Opposing QB’s have great games.  In their loss to Ole Miss they gave up a 171 QB rating, and in their wins just 85.  In 2014 it was 162, and 117, 2013 it was 140 and 112, and in 2013 it was 163 (Texas A&M), and 107 in Alabama’s wins.  It’s true Alabama can dominate the line of scrimmage but the last 4 seasons or so the way to beat them has been through the air as their secondary has not been nearly as good.  

This is a good match up for Texas A&M, not only are they improved on defense, at home, underdog, coming off a bye, but they have the advantage against the secondary.  The Aggies are littered with 5 start receivers and it has paid dividends as Christina Kirk, Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones are going to be tough match ups for the Tide.  Kyle Allen has been every bit as good if not better than Chad Kelly who beat Alabama on the road and posted a 171 QB rating, and the Aggies have a much better running game to compliment along with an X-factor with Kyler Murray who can also run the ball or throw.

I’d also like to add that Alabama has only faced one team this year that is currently ranked.  Yes Georgia deserves to be ranked and in reality that score was just not as bad as it looked.  I’m very confident that the Aggies are going to give Alabama issues and put them in uncomfortable situations where they will be forced to come back and win by throwing the ball. 

Louisville / Florida State Under 46 4.4* play

I really like the under in this game as both teams have much stronger defenses with the offenses being the weakness.  Neither team likes to pick up the pace and this game should be close throughout.  What I really like about this under is each team really struggles in the red zone to put 6 points on the board instead of 3, and each defense has been dominant in red zone defense holding opponents to 44% and 41% TD rate which is extremely impressive. 

I also like that Florida State is not turning the ball over (1 TO on the season), both teams have very good special teams coverage and very good punters.

Louisville does come in off the bye week, and Florida State off the big win against their in state rival Miami.  Dalvin Cook took that game over, but I still don’t think he’s 100% with the hamstring.  Miami’s defense is really really bad, and they only managed 29 points.  Points will be at a premium in this game and the under is 20-7-1 in Louisville’s last 28 games in October 8-1 toward the under on grass while Florida State is under the number 13-4 in their last 17 on grass including 10-1 in their last 11 home games. 

Connecticut -2.5 2.2* play

Both South Florida and Uconn are off impressive wins this past week with South Florida being in more impressive fashion, but looking at this match up I like the Huskies to prevail.  First of all we can not ignore this South Florida rushing offense which has really looked sharp in every single game.  Marlon Mack and this offense runs the ball 63% of the time and Uconn has not done a great job of stopping the run, but I think those stats are a bit misleading for Uconn.

First of all Uconn faced 2 triple option teams, and then they also faced BYU on the road and an SEC team.  They have had the more challenging schedule for sure.  Uconn’s pass defense is very good which will allow them to put their guys on an island and throw more guys against the run.  In years past this has been a very good run defense, and I believe their recent struggles are a bit misleading.  I think they will be aided this week facing a team that will struggle to pass the ball.  Quintin Flowers QB rating on the road is 90.  He played poorly at Maryland, a team ranked 101st in opposing QB rating.  Uconn’s secondary is one of the best in the AAC and ranks 33rd overall.  

For Uconn’s offense they rely on Bryan Shirreffs to win them most games as they have a 171 QB rating in wins and a 113 in losses.  Lucky for him South Florida has really struggled in pass defense this year.  They will get their share of tackles for loss or sacks, but overall they rank 97th in opposing QB rating.  Maryland has arguably the worse class of QB’s and South Florida’s defense made them look very good.  Overall expect a very close game to the end.  I think the home field advantage is worth a lot here in this match up and I like UConn’s ability to keep South Florida out of the red zone and to play better vs. the run than they have in previous weeks.

Boise / Utah St U51 4.4* NCAAF POD

I love the value that we are getting with this total as each team is coming off consecutive games with putting up a lot of points and this total is definitely inflated.  When I look at adjusted statistics which factor in garbage time and all other kind of metrics Utah State's offense is ranked 97th, and Boise State's offense is ranked 73rd.  The adjusted defenses are 22nd and 32nd so both teams rely on their defenses to win.  The only way I see this going over is on a crazy return for TD or points off turnovers which Utah State has been very good at eliminating with just 1 turnover at home and 7 all together.  Boise has relied quite heavily on the turnovers with 16 forced this season.  Boise has also relied on big plays to score their points and I don't see Utah State giving them up.

I also wanted to look at what each team did when they struggled to score points.  For Boise State it was pretty easy they struggled in the passing game and had to rely on running the ball.  In both games against BYU & Washington Boise struggled to pass the ball and the same could happen tonight considering Utah State has a very good passing defense that's even better at home.  Mark Rypien has looked like a stud since he took over 4 games ago, but he's played Idaho State, and 3 defenses that are not ranked inside the top 60 in passing defense or rushing defense.  So all of the defenses he's faced were not good at stopping anything and now he goes on the road to face a Utah State team that is very good at stopping both particularly at home.  I do see Boise State winning this game, but it's more because of their defense.  Also worth mentioning is the fact that Boise State is just 61% in the red zone for TD% and they are only 35.96% on third down and 23% on the road.

Boise State's defense has been awesome and Utah State put up big point numbers in their last two games, but it was against teams that struggle to stop the run.  In games Utah State can run for 150 or more yards they have scored 33 and 56, but Boise State is ranked 2nd, and Utah State averages just 14 in the other games this year.

***TEASER OF THE WEEK - 15-4 SINCE LAST SEASON!

Boise State -1.5 w/ Northwestern +7.5 4.4* Teaser

I really like Boise State to win this game, I don't see Utah State to be able to sustain drives long enough, and their defense is going to be very tired in the second half.  For Northwestern on Saturday -

I’ll take the home dog here, I don’t see a big difference between these two teams statistically, and when you factor in that Northwestern has played 4 teams better than Iowa’s top 2 opponents (Pitt & Wisconsin), the stats are definitely inflated in favor of Iowa.  Northwestern has the 5th toughest schedule having faced Duke, Minnesota, Stanford and Michigan last week.  You can argue right now Michigan and Stanford are the 2 best teams in the nation.

Bettors remember Northwestern going to Michigan and losing 38-0, and they see Iowa coming in undefeated having won on the road against Wisconsin, but this is very misleading.  This team was -100 yards and relied on 2 turnovers at Wisconsin.  This team has really struggled offensively since they started conference play and that’s not a coincidence.  This game will be very much like the Wisconsin game in my opinion although the Northwestern defense is a little better vs. the pass, a little better running the ball, and they don’t make as many mistakes.  Wisconsin turned the ball over 4 times in that game alone, Northwestern has 7 total on the year.

The key for Northwestern is not getting off to a slow start.  They were fighting the entire game last week and were only able to run the ball 25 times.  Northwestern needs to run the ball 45+ times in this game and I think they will considering they have 50 or more rushes in all 5 of their other games.  Iowa just 2-11 the last 4 seasons when allowing 46 or more rushes.  It’s absolutely the key in this game for Northwestern.  Don’t turn the ball over, run the ball, play to your defense and they should win this game at home.  The other added benefit is that this running game will be fresh for Northwestern.  Justin Jackson had only 12 carries and that should help them bounce back.  Northwestern also has an above average home field advantage, and they have been dynamite in key situations overall on the year, but they are allowing only 30% TD’s in the red zone, and 20 % conversions on third down.  This should greatly benefit them here.

UCLA +7 5.5* NCAAF POD – UCLA +215 1* PLAY

UCLA’s struggles against Stanford in recent history are well documented (1-6 ATS in their last 7), but this is a different team.  This is probably the best UCLA team that Stanford has faced, and for Stanford people are forgetting that this team replaced their entire defense and I know they have looked good of late, and their wins against USC and Arizona are impressive, but this is their biggest challenge.  I’m not even that impressed now with their win against USC considering their situation now with Sarkisan and their loss against Northwestern looks even worse now after what Northwestern did at Michigan.

Jim Mora is a very good coach and this team has played exceptionally well on the road, 5-0 last year 2-0 on neutral fields.  This team is also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a bye week, and the value is there considering vegas was off by nearly 30 points in their last match up against Arizona State.  Listen Arizona State is good, they had a bad game against USC, and they pose a different challenge than Stanford.  With Stanford what you see is what you get and it’s not overly difficult to prepare for.  I see UCLA’s offense really doing well in this game as they are truly balanced and pose a different challenge to this Stanford defense that in my opinion is getting a little too much credit.

When I say Stanford is predictable that’s not always easy to stop, but in their wins this year they have a QB rating of 204 and 88 in their loss.  That follows the trends from previous years in 2014 it was 167, to 113, and in 2013 it was 163 to 113.  This team needs Kevin Hogan to play well, and he honestly faces a tough task here on Thurdsay night even at home against the Bruins.  UCLA has an interception in every game, and is top 25 in opponent yards per attempt and completion %.  UCLA has been excellent in the red zone allowing only 38.89% TD’s, and on third down 36% both are better than Stanford’s defensive stats.  This just is not the same Stanford defense and they have actually allowed more sacks, and tackles for loss and have only forced 3 TO’s. 

Kentucky +115 3* play

Nobody is giving Kentucky enough credit.  I sure as hell gave Auburn way more credit with my bank roll this season, and I’m not just jumping off them, because believe me I wanted to on the surface back Auburn.  You’d think you would have value with Auburn, but they have not proved that they have improved at all and now Malzahn is going back to Jeremy Johnson at QB on the road in what will be a great environment.  Kentucky plays so much better at home and I just can’t see Auburn pulling this one out.

Even in Auburn’s last game at home against San Jose State they won 35-21, but they had 4 turnovers and were -64 yards in the game.  So after looking better against Miss State, but losing they looked bad again but were fortunate to beat a San Jose State, a team that is just not as good as in years past.  Auburn will be able to run the ball in this game just fine, and Kentucky won’t care they actually give up more rushing yards per carry in losses than they do in wins dating back to last year, and they are fine with that as they are able to avoid the big plays, and Auburn has not been explosive this year ranking 74th in that category.

The keys to Kentucky absolutely reside on the offensive side of the ball although they do have the advantage defensively.  In wins they are able to run and pass, but more importantly run the ball.  Boom Williams is a stud and arguably the best known secret in the SEC.  Auburn is 115th in run defense and has allowed all of their opponents more rushing yards per carry than their averages with the exception of Miss State, and that was at home.  Boom Williams should have a big day and I see Patrick Towles making some big plays in this game as well.  Towles should have time as Auburn is 106th in sack % and 103rd in havoc rate which should cut down the turnover numbers as well for Towles which is a big key.

At the end of the day Auburn has more talent level, and Malzahn has been able to coach around that, but we are finding out that he just does not have the QB play that he has had in the past and that’s probably the biggest key to his offense.  Kentucky is very good at home and holds the advantages in the red zone, 3rd down, and special teams.  Kentucky could have beaten Florida, and I don’t see any signature wins for Auburn that are really that impressive or even games where they have played a full game.  

Arkansas State -4.5 3.3* play

Arkansas State, with their back up QB dominated Idaho last week, a pretty good offense that put up 35 points on Arkansas State, but a bit misleading as Arkansas State had a 521 to 338 yard advantage in this one, but did throw a pick 6 which made the game a little closer.  I typically lean towards the home dog on these mid week games, but this is a situation that Arkansas clearly has more experience with.  Arkansas State also has a lot of experience at the Jaguars Stadium that hosts the Godaddy bowl each of the last 4 seasons.  Much to learn about Sun Belt teams, but Arkansas State has clearly had the more challenging schedule facing USC, Missouri, and Toledo.

About South Alabama – A lot of players came over from UAB when they decided to end their program so there are still a lot of question marks about how good they can be this year.  The hype is on their defense they just won on the road against Troy as a TD under dog holding the to 18 points, but Troy has struggled offensively all year.  Troy only averaging 20.6 points to begin with and has struggled with an offensive identity starting the year with an up-tempo offense and then dialing back the pace when they realized they couldn’t run it.

 That was a pretty significant win for South Alabama according to their head coach - It was a festive atmosphere at Troy's Veterans Memorial Stadium in the first "Battle for the Belt." Jones said it was everything an in-state, in-conference rivalry should be.  I’m not saying this team can’t get up after a big game, but it’s much more difficult as they take some time off and have the most consistent Sun Belt team coming in.  So far South Alabama has been very content with their performance and I like Arkansas State’s chances.  Defensively South Alabama ranks near the bottom in adjusted statistics, 114th overall, 107 vs. the run, 97 vs. the pass and it’s a bad sign with Fredi Knighten returning for this game.

Arkansas State has been playing without their best player Fredi Knighten who returns for this game.  Knighten suffered an injury in their game against Missouri in a 27-20 loss.  Knighten is probably the best QB in the Sun Belt accounted for 35 total TD’s a year ago and is a real dual threat running and passing the ball in this offense.  This is a huge boost for this offense along with Michael Gordon at RB who should benefit greatly who is already averaging 6.50 yards per carry.  Knighten was outstanding in conference play with nearly 8 yards per pass attempt with 16 TD’s to 6 interceptions while completing 62.3% of his passes.  He’s got his running game, and receiving weapons back this year and 3 of the 5 on along the offensive line.  Defensively this team is very very strong up front and returns mostly their entire defensive line that was ranked 25th in adjusted sack rate.  The biggest key is getting off the field on third down.

Arkansas State has done a decent job getting off the field allowing 37.84% on third down conversions following 35% a year ago in conference play.  Offensively the Red Wolves have improved compared with last year at just under 40%, but Knighten and this running game definitely better than last year will be a handful for South Alabama which allows 42% on third down while converting at just 34.67%.

In the red zone, this is where this game changes, because the Jaguars really struggle without a lot of options down here they are only converting 35% of their opportunities into TD’s.  Defensively they have been even worse allowing 16 TD’s in 18 attempts for 88.89%.  Arkansas State has had a lot more success 67% TD’s in the red zone on offense while their defense comes in at 70% which I expect them to improve throughout the season.

Turnovers have killed Arkansas State and probably giving us some value in this line.  They can not turn the ball over and have 12 turnovers in their 3 road games.  The good news is they are playing a beatable defense and can do whatever they want in the running game so I don’t expect turnovers to be an issue and South Alabama also has had the same issues of turning the ball over.  I also give the special teams edge to Arkansas State who clearly have the better punter and return game while South Alabama’s kicker may keep them in the game I think South Alabama will be scoring 3 points while Arkansas State is scoring 7.

Missouri +6 3.3* play

Waiting for the public money to com in this morning and drive this price up to a key number and we will grab this at 6 points and back Missouri and their defense.  This is a lot of points for a home dog with a defense of Missouri's caliber.  This is absolutely an over reaction in the line from Florida's win a week ago.  I did predict and play Florida last week, but I just don't see how they can come out with the same amount of energy as they did a week ago facing a top 5 team in their own building.  Missouri also has been getting healthier and are starting a new QB which is actually a good thing, because Matty Mauk only seemed to hurt this team.  I expect a very low scoring game and the fact that we have 6 points to work with for the home team with a 37.5 point total makes me feel really good. 

Florida State -1 / Utah -1.5 4.4* Teaser of the week
I like to take teasers in college football week 5+ because the lines are much sharper. I also like to do it because the lines are very sharp for these games and with 6 points I have a great shot at winning.

Florida State -1
This is great value with some injury news the line has come down to 7 everywhere and I'll grab it. Florida State does rely on Dalvin Cook, but this team has been relying on their stout defense to win games. They also have an experienced QB, they have turned the ball over just once all season, and they have the best kicker in the game, and they play arguably one of the worst defenses they have faced all season in Miami. Yes, Miami comes in with extra prep time having played a week game, but Al Golden just is not a good coach and the extra time really does not benefit him or his team. Miami does have some weapons on offense, but they have been showcased against very bad defenses. Nebraska ranks 97th in yards per play and Cinci 111th. 

Utah -1.5
This line has not budged at all, but I like the Utes off a bye. Typically you would see me fading this team after a win like that at Oregon, but Utah benefits largely from a bye week here while Cal had to play against Washington State. I think Cal may be able to scare Utah a bit here, but overall Utah has the better team, and they have an edge on special teams as well. 

Oregon St +10.5 2.2*

Oregon State is off a bye, and I like what I saw from them early in games this season.  With the bye, I see this team coming in fresh and a lot stronger with a lot of preparation for Arizona.  I believe this game should be close throughout, because Arizona has really struggled vs. the run and they will face a QB in Seth Collins who has really been impressive to go along with Storm Woods.  I truly thought they played better against Stanford than Arizona did and I believe Gary Andersen is a bit of a better coach.  His defense is improving and have held opponents to 27.45% on third down.  They have also been very good against the pass which is a huge key in beating Arizona.  In 2014 – Arizona had a 146 QB rating in wins, and a 96 QB rating in losses, and the same is true this year with a 158 QB rating in wins and a 100 QB rating in losses.  Oregon State has the capability of slowing this offense down enough, but even if they are able to move the ball they have been better on third down and I actually think Oregon State will be able to move the ball.

Oregon State’s offense is under rated and Arizona has given up 10 rushing TD’s in their last 2 games alone and have yet to face an offense with a running QB as an added dynamic and that’s what Seth Collins brings with this game.  Arizona also has really struggled in pass defense, they also have allowed 47.5% conversions on third downs and double the red zone attempts compared to Oregon State’s red zone defense.  Oregon State’s offense has faced 2 of the top defenses in Stanford and Oregon State which should help with preparation.  This is a young team with a good coach that will continue to improve throughout the year. 

Georgia -3 -105 4* play

Both teams lost at home last week, and it’s a question of who can bounce back?  My money is on Georgia this week as they have a significant edge in the coaching department as the Bulldogs are 9-1 following a loss over the last 3 seasons.  Tennessee also played much poorer against Arkansas despite the score than Georgia did against Alabama.  Georgia really beat themselves early and were unable to stick to their game plan.  They held Alabama to 379 yards, but it was their 4 turnovers, and the fact that they gave up 2 TD on a block punt, and an interception for a TD that made the final score look far worse than it really was.  When you consider that they were still able to run the ball for over 5 yards per carry and hold Alabama under 5 it sets them up well against Tennessee this week.  It’s the perfect opportunity for this team to get away.

Tennessee is really missing 2 of their guys they lost up front earlier this season and they just allowed 275 yards rushing to a one dimensional Arkansas team.  Actually Arkansas has been decent with the pass, and about even to Georgia’s ability, but have struggled running the ball.  The game against Tennessee was their best game and the rushing defenses they faced prior were 82, 116, 5th, and 111 so that tells you all you need to know about where Tennessee is this week.  Georgia is much better running the ball with more than 200 yards  on less carries and more rushing TD’s than Arkansas.  Georgia’s defense is also much better than Arkansas who held Tennessee to under 400 yards.  Tennessee has not shown an ability to win unless they get their offense going and I don’t see that as a possibility this week against an angry Georgia team that has bounced back well after losses under Mark Richt and I trust him much more over Butch Jones who has not proven a damn thing.  Can’t win close games, and can’t get a signature win.  This is another opportunity for him to do so and I’m not confident he can.

Wisconsin +105 3*

Wisconsin is a play despite their poor play a week ago in the 10-6 loss at home.  Nebraska also struggled and lost on the road against Illinois.  Which team rebounds?  I think Wisconsin mainly because they have the far superior defense ranking 15th in yards per play while Nebraska defense ranks 93rd and they have both played similar teams.  The fact is Wisconsin actually out played Iowa and should have won holding them to 221 yards, but had 4 turnovers while Nebraska was outgained by about 100 against Illinois, an offense ranked 94th in yards per play.

Wisconsin just needs to avoid the turnover and they will be fine here.  Joel Stave should have a bounce back game like he typically does against a Nebraska passing defense that is just one of the worst in the country allowing over 350 yards per game.  This is a good situation for Wisconsin considering they haven’t bene able to run the ball like in years past.  Wisconsin has a QB rating of 156 in wins and 112 in losses while Nebraska too has the same 161 in wins and 110 in losses.  The difference is Wisconsin can get to the QB better and they protect their QB better.  The pass defense is ranked 16th for Wisconsin while Nebraska is 81st, and they have the better more experienced QB here.  It may be a risk betting and backing Joel Stave, but he does not have to do much and should have a ton of time.

Northwestern +7.5 3.3*

This line truly says a lot about what the oddsmakers think about Michigan in the early going, but I think they are just a bit over hyped at this point and I believe there is no way they are not looking ahead to Michigan State.  The total is down to 34.5 and we have over a TD to work with and that makes me very confident in a match up between two teams that are nearly identical in a lot of ways.  For Northwestern there is still a perception that they will start to trip up when the Big 10 conference starts like they have in the past, but this is Pat Fitzgerald’s best defense, a defense he’s been building for years.  We saw glimpses of it last year when they had several big road wins including at Notre Dame and at Penn State.  In the past it was Northwestern leaning on the offense that was not able to get them the wins they wanted in conference play.  I said it last week when we backed the Wildcats, they continue to get no respect.  I even said in my analysis last week that they would not give up a TD against Minnesota as they shut them out.

Now each team has a below average QB and will be going up against a top tier passing defense.  I give the edge slightly to Northwestern here as their pass defense has been a bit better and Thorson has done a better job taking care of the football and is also more mobile giving his offense more of a shot with his legs.  Thorson had a nice long rushing TD against Stanford earlier in the year, another strong defense and Michigan showed they had issues containing Travis Wilson who had 52 rushing yards on 12 carries when they hosted Michigan to open the season.  Actually you can really look at those two match ups of Utah vs. Michigan, and Northwestern vs. Stanford, because it’s Big 10 vs. Pac 12 and all 4 play a very similar style of football.  Northwestern was just as impressive if not more impressive in their game against Stanford especially vs. the run.

Speaking of the run both teams will run the ball 60% of the time in this game, and while Michigan does have the edge in rushing offense and rushing defense I don’t think it’s as big as the numbers indicate.  Northwestern has faced 3 top 50 rushing defenses and have rushed for a higher average in 2 of them, while Michigan has only faced 1 top 50 rushing defense and was held 1.5 yards below what Utah’s run defense average was which makes you believe Northwestern’s rushing game is better than numbers would indicate, but they have played the stronger defenses with Duke, Stanford on the schedule all in the top 50.  On the flip side their defense has also faced 2 top 50 rushing offenses while Michigan only faced 1.  Still I give small edge in the running game to Michigan and it makes sense why they are favored.

In the end it’s going to be the small things, penalties, special teams, and other key spot play in the red zone and on third downs.  In reality it’s again all pretty much even.  Northwestern has been absolutely dominant on third down and in red zone defense allowing 20% on third down and 10% TD% while Michigan’s offense has been a bit better in red zone conversions and just as nasty on third down but is allowing 67% TD%.  Northwestern is +4 in turnover margin while Michigan is -2, and they are being penalized almost 2 fewer per game.  Both kickers are slightly above average and have gone 2-4 on field goals 40+ yards.  Northwestern has been very good in the return game with a punt and kick off return for TD.  This game with the low total and not even a significant coaching advantage along with the fact that Michigan players can’t help themselves but look forward to the Michigan State show down are all reasons why you can’t sleep on Northwestern and at this price it’s hard not to take them as they will have a shot at winning the game barring a ton of turnovers.

Eastern Mich +7.5 -106 5.5* pod; EMU +250 1*

I love Eastern Michigan in this spot, they are one of the most improved MAC teams and have proven that they can score against pretty much anyone at this point so I’m not too worried that they face Akron one of the better defenses in the MAC, because after all this is a MAC West team vs. a MAC East, and I am very confident that Eastern Michigan may even pull this upset here at home.  Akron won 31-6 at home last year in this meeting, but even Terry Bowden admitted that the improvement from Eastern Michigan is pretty drastic and Eastern Michigan turned the ball over 4 times in that match up.

Both teams want to run the ball first and Eastern Michigan can do it better while Akron can stop it it better, but Akron has only faced 1 team in the top 50 in rushing offense and gave up 41 points while Eastern Michigan is 24th in yards per carry behind Darius Jackson who even scored a TD against LSU on the road last week.  I mentioned Eastern Michgian has been able to move the ball on all of their opponents and rank 31st in yards per play compared with Akron’s offense that ranks 119th.  You may think Akron will be able to run the ball and control the clock, but 7.5 points is still too many given the fact that Eastern Mich is at least good in one department on defense and that’s pass defense where they have been excellent.  Their run defense looks worse than it is having faced 4 teams in the top 51 in yards per carry.  Akron not very good at running the ball ranking 105th with 3.4 yards per carry.

Special teams plays a critical game in what should be a low scoring game, vegas has this at 53.  Eastern Michigan has a major advantage here.  Their place kicker is 3-4 beyond 40 yards including a 52 yard make, and their punter Austin Barnes is among the best in the country ranking 22nd in yardage and has 18 punts inside the 20 yard line.  Akron’s kicker is 6-9 and has missed a field goal from 20-29, 30-39, and 40-49.  As you guessed Eastern Michigan’s offense also has the advantage on third downs (they were 45% at LSU), red zone offense 76% TD% (3-3 at LSU), compared with Akron’s 40.9%.  Akron is probably looking ahead to their game with Bowling Green the next week which is critical to their success in the Mac East so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them lose this game.

CMU +7 2.2* PLAY

Central Mich comes off a big win against Northern Illinois, a team that nearly beat Ohio State while Western Michigan is off a bye having lost big to Ohio State.  I don’t see how home field advantage, and a bye week would be this much of an advantage for Western Michigan team that has not played any better than the Chippewas that I can see.  I will take the 4 point line move and back Central Michigan as these are two very similar teams with similar results against similar power 5 conference teams including Michigan State who Central Michigan played just as good against on the road while Western Michigan opened the season against them at home.

Both teams like to pass first as they have trouble running the ball.  You could argue that whomever is able to run the ball should be able to win.  It’s really a coin flip, because Central Michigan has not been able to run on anyone, and Western Michigan has not been able to stop anyone.  Although Central Michigan’s running game looked better at Michigan State and has been pretty consistent the entire season.  I also like Jahray Hayes taking over for Spalding as he has more breakaway speed.

I believe both QB’s are pretty even, and both pass defenses are pretty even with Central Michigan probably having played better so far and better against their common opponent so small edge here to the Chippewas and I love what their QB Cooper Rush has been able to do his offensive line protects him better than Terrell, and they also have a better pass rush.

With all of these factors we took a look at third down defense and special teams as being the deciding factor and Central Michigan has a very big advantage especially in the kicking game when you look at the stats from 30+ yards out the Western Michigan kicker is just not capable and is even shaky at time on extra points.  

Marshall -3 2.2* Friday Night Action 

Marshall has some depth despite some injury issues and I really think there is value in taking them by a field goal.  First off this is a team that is not as offensively talented as last year, but they are still able to move the ball on the ground which is exactly what Southern Miss biggest weakness is ranking 124th in run defense from a YPC perspective.  Now I have been high on Southern Miss and have backed them twice already to win, but now they just don't have the same value and since this line has dropped 4 points I"m going to take Marshall.

Marshall's defense will actually bet the difference in my opinion.  This unit is stout one of the best pass defensive units allowing

Over 71 SMU/Houston 3.3* play 

I think this game goes easily over the total.  Each team has 4 days of rest here, and that usually favors the offense not the defense.  We also get 2 teams here that are in the top 20 in plays per game, and can put up a lot of points featuring 2 rookie coaches with offensive backgrounds.  Houston should score in the 50's in my opinion and SMU won't be able to really run the ball and will be playing from behind all game long with lots of passes.  I would lean towards Houston actually covering this large spread, but I'm not a fan of laying that type of chalk so I will play the over here which I feel will easily cash.

We have 2 dual threat QB's that can keep the chains moving, a lot of total plays, a total with some value after opening at 74, and Houston coming off a game where they did not score a lot of points which is giving us some value here.  Houston played at Tulsa won by 14 which was really impressive, because they faced a Tulsa team coming off a bye with a lot of preparation time, and now they face a team with 4 days that has given up 48 points or more to 4 of their 5 opponents.  This will get ugly and I don't see Houston in an in state televised game slowing it down at all as they cruise 63-28

Florida +7.5 -105 3.3* play

Automatically many are going to assume value here on Ole Miss seeing that they went into Alabama and won by around this number of points.  People also assume Ole Miss is better than Tennessee who was leading the Gators 27-14 last week.  However, I think this is more about match ups and this is not a good one for Ole Miss.

Ole Miss has a ton of questions along their offensive line not sure who is going to sit out or play with TUnsil out indefinitely and RG Justin Bell stated as being out as well.  Already 59th at protecting their QB they go up against Florida who is 3rd in sack %, and 6th havoc rate as they have 35 tackles for loss with 22.7% of plays resulting in TFL, Interception, fumble or pass breakup.  Ole Miss was extremely lucky to beat Alabama on the road.  They were outgained, but they were lucky Alabama gave the ball up 5 times.  Alabama showed weaknesses in this Ole Miss defense that Florida can exploit with a mind like Jim McElwain, who already has this offense much improved.

There are red flags for Ole Miss and I mentioned they would have issues with VAnderbilts under rated defense.  Alabama’s weakness on defense is in their secondary and QB Chad Kelly took advantage.  Ole Miss is not a really strong running team with their strength being their receivers.  Florida has arguably the best secondary in the game.  Ole Miss converted just 28% on third down at Alabama and their defense allowed 55%, they also allowed Alabama to score TD’s on 5 of their 6 trips inside the red zone.  Like I said a lot of red flags.

Florida’s offense has been a bit better, and I think they could move the ball if they are smart.  Ole Miss is 124th at getting to the QB, and Will Grier has been pretty good behind an offensive line that is protecting him pretty well.  He’s been able to complete 62.6% of his passes and 7.3 yards per attempt which is way better than what they have done in years past.  I’m not looking at what these teams did up to this point, but rather the situation and match up and I think Florida could actually pull this one off in an ugly low scoring game.

Vanderbilt +125 3* play

Good value here and the Commodores are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs conference USA.  This is a big one because it's an in state rivalry game so both teams will take this seriously with a lot recruiting implications.  

Vanderbilt is better than their record indicates and I am starting to be impressed with Derek Mason and the comments he's been making.  This is the third spread up-tempo offense Vandy has faced this year and they held the first two well under season averages.  One could say they played better than Alabama's highly touted defense against Ole Miss and Middle Tenn put just 10 puts up in that game.

Vanderbilts defense will be the difference here and the offense is getting better I also trust their specials teams more as well when you consider MTSU's head coach blatantly admitted he has no confidence in his kicker.

Buffalo +8 4.4* play

Matt Johnson leads the nation in passing yards and Bowling Green is a very exciting team to watch and bet on and they have already beaten 2 Big 10 teams.  Buffalo came into the season with an experienced offense, and the defense was supposed to be behind, but it’s been the other way around until last week when the offense was +108 yards with 487 against Nevada, but turned the ball over 3 times and lost the game to our benefit as we bet on Nevada on the money line.

The biggest key in this game is can Buffalo run the ball.  They have arguably one of the best running backs in conference play in Anthone Taylor and this unit had 5 yards per carry on the road against Bowling Green this year.  Now BG has continued to approve vs. the run, but their pass defense is the main concern here and Buffalo has the potential to be very balanced with Joe Licata.  I expect Licata to have a very big game.  Licata is going to be #1 passer on Buffalo’s all time list and he’s completing 65% of his passes and that includes 68.6% against Penn State.  Bowling Green 107th in completion % allowed and has a very bad passing defense.  Balanced offense are very difficult to stop on the road, and Bowling Green has already shown their share of struggles. 

For Bowling Green, they get their toughest match up of the season in my opinion as far as the defense they are facing.  Bowling Green loves to pass the ball ranking 6th with a 60.43% passing play percentage.  It’s just a bad match up here, because Buffalo has been stout against the pass.  Buffalo will face it’s stiffest test, but they have been so dominant I find it hard that Matt Johnson will dominate like he has all season long.  The Bulls are 11th in opponent completion %, 24th in yards/attempt, and 17th in opposing QB rating.  Buffalo has held all opponents to 40% or less on third downs, where they should have more success in this game.  Bowling Green has had a lot of penalty issues too having at least 10 in all 4 games that could haunt them in this game.

The last thing I have to mention is special teams where Buffalo also has an edge.  Bowling Green’s kicker is not much better than Purdue’s he’s 3-7 on the season and they have given up punt return TD and their coverage has not been very good.  Buffalo definitely an edge here and they have a punt return TD themselves.  Special teams is crucial when we get into these games, and I love the home dog in this spot.  The meetings between these two teams have been extremely close over the past few years and I see no reason why  this won’t be different.  It’s just an inflated line for Bowling Green this early 

 FIU +3 4.4* play

This is some great value with FIU despite being on the road which they haven’t had an issue playing well on the road.  Umass just comes back from a beating in South Bend and it’s going to take a bit of time to get over that.  I know a lot of their more experienced players were looking forward to that and I think it will be difficult to get up for this game.

Both of these teams will pass to win the game at over 60% passing play % FIU is better on both sides of the ball on offense and defense by a pretty wide margin.  It’s not as if they haven’t played anyone they have faced UCF, Indiana, and LA Tech all on the road.  This team is used to playing on the road by now, and one more road game shouldn’t be that difficult especially a winnable one like this.

FIU should have plenty of time to throw with their offensive line ranking 14th in pass protection while Umass is 108th in getting to the QB.  The other advantage they have here is 3rd downs one of the bigger keys in a football game.  FIU is converting 50% of the time and allowing 33% compared with Umass 28% and allowing 53%.  FIU’s defense has held both Indiana and LA Tech under 40% success rate and have held both teams on the road under their season average for points.  Umass only averages 21 points and I don’t see how FIU won’t put that up on a Umass team that is 115th in yards per play allowed.

 Alabama +8.5/TX A&M -0.5 4.4* teaser of the week

Too much value here with the teaser and Alabama with Georgia running the ball 64% of the time and Alabama’s front 7 being the strength of this team holding opponents to 2.0 yards per play.  The fact that they lost by 6 to Ole Miss after turning the ball over 5 times just shows you this team is very good.  I think they win outright, but still a lot questions from their QB so I can’t back them on the road to win, but I do see a tight game here making the 8.5 points a very comfortable bet.

Texas A&M will host Miss State, a very over rated team in my opinion.  I don’t think Miss State can keep up with this offense, and I don’t think they have played particularly well.  They also come off a huge victory Auburn that was very misleading.  They couldn’t run the ball just 2.7 ypc and Auburn has looked very very bad vs. the run and were outgained overall.  They were lucky that Auburn was very bad in the red zone going 0-4 for TD’s.  They should have lost that game yet they won, and I just don’t see how they can win in a talented SEC division on the road in back to back weeks.  A&M also has revenge on their mind after Kenny Hill threw 3 INT”s in the road loss last year.

Louisville +4.5 3.3* play

Too much value here with Louisville you can argue that all 3 of Louisville losses were against opponents that are better than NC State or would at least be favored.  You could also argue that Louisville could have won all of those games and we would be looking at a different situation here.

NC State steps up big time in competition against a hungry Louisville team that wants their first win in conference play.  NC State has faced 86, 101, 103, and 144th ranked teams.  Louisville’s defense is legit and I think they can run the ball against NC State ranking 3rd in run defense, but has faced 1 team inside the top 100 in rushing ypc and that would be Troy who is in the 90’s and averaged more than a yard better than their average.  In the end you won’t find a stat for NC State you won’t like given their competition, but Louisville has a lot to like about them.  I especially like their red zone defense to start the season which makes this spread extremely attractive.

Tulsa +7 5.5* POD & Tulsa +230 1* BONUS

Tulsa has to be licking their chops here against Houston.  Coming off a bye week and after a great performance vs. Oklahoma Tulsa gets to host a team as a 7 point under dog that is getting a lot of credit already for their win on the road against Louisville.  Both these teams are breaking in 2 new impressive coaches from big programs with Tom Herman form Ohio State on the Houston side and Phil Montgomery on the Tulsa side.

Tulsa’s offense worked on the road against Oklahoma.  Now he gets a bye week to improve the defense against another top tier offense coming in from Houston.  Montgomery has already proved he can improve this team and he’s got more returning starters than Houston.

Houston is far more predictable running the ball 65% of the time while Tulsa has been more balanced at 56%.  Houston will face the best offense they have seen all year.  Yes, they have been very good vs. the run, but they haven’t faced a team that can pass the ball and run the ball.  Louisville’s offense has been struggling all year and they haven’t faced anyone else to note.  Dane Evans at QB should keep the sticks moving and Zack Langer is a powerful back in the red zone where Houston is allowing 70% TD’s.  Actually Tulsa’s defense has been better on third down than Houston and their offense has also succeeded more on third downs.  I actually think Tulsa has a solid shot at pulling the upset.

[b]Northwestern -3.5 3.3* play [/b]

I like the Wild Cats quite a bit here.  They’re 4-0, and the story goes… Northwestern can’t win in October.  Since 2010 this team is 21-3 in August/September, but 6-14 in October.  The difference is they beat Duke and Stanford this time around.  Both Duke and Stanford beat arguably the best teams in their conference in USC & Georgia Tech since.  I said this in my write up of week 1 when I backed the Wildcats over Stanford, this is Pat Fitzgerald’s best defense.  A defense ranked 3rd in scoring defense and 25th in yards per play.  Minnesota’s offense has struggled against defenses ranked 89th, 84th, and 63rd.  They faced Kent State who is ranked 13th, but gave up 52 points to Illinois and 36 to Marshall.  Minnesota scored just 10 against them.  I predict that Minnesota won’t even get a TD in this game as Northwestern is holding opponents to 10% RZ TD%, and 18% on third downs.  Minnesota really does not have that RB like they did a year ago in David Cobb and Minnesota has been forced to throw the ball 47% of the time.

Northwestern is running the ball 67% of the time which is smart for them with a young QB, but they will have to throw at certain points in this game if they are going to win.  The good news is they are converting over 50% of their third downs and Minnesota is 99th in getting pressure on the QB and are playing without 75% of their secondary who have key injuries.  The injuries are a huge concern for Minnesota and something I just do not think they can overcome.  Northwestern has a chip on their shoulder they have lost these games in the past, even last year they had 120 more yards than Minnesota but lost.  This is a home game and Pat Fitzgerald’s defense should dominate and they should win and cover this spread as they also have the better overall special teams in my opinion.

South Florida +7.5 3.3* play 

South Florida looks to be the same as the past few years after losing to Maryland, who has been everyone's punching bag to start the year.  Meanwhile Memphis is cashing machine on the over as well as ATS.  I actually think this is a very difficult situation for them here tonight. 

Memphis now goes back on the road where they just don't play defense ranking 106th in yard per play having to face South Florida who has 5 extra days of preparation, and a lot of motivation.  Memphis is getting a lot of respect here and I'm not buying them at this kind of chalk with this type of defense.  Memphis also has Ole Miss up next, and they get them at home.  I don't see how they won't be more excited about that game.  For South Florida this is Willie Taggart's best team yet, and I think Marlon Mack can have a great game along with their QB Quentin Flowers.  Really any offense has played well against Memphis and I see no reason for that to change. 

South Florida's defense though is much better than the last two teams Memphis has faced in Bowling Green and Cinci.  They rank 26th in havoc rate, and 8th in the front 7 while DE Eric Lee and tackles Senat & Hector could have some key plays that force turnovers that change this game.

Cincinnati +7 -115 3.5* play

I'm going to take the Bearcats in this game in what should be another action packed Thursday night battle.  A few interesting story lines here with the Bearcats starting their back up QB, who broke the school record a week ago for passing yards and he did it in 3 quarters.  Hayden Moore will be just fine and has many weapons that can beat Miami's defense.  Meanwhile Miami is undefeated and coming off a bye, but has Florida State up next.

I believe Cincinnati will struggle on defense here for sure, but I believe they will get Miami into enough 3rd down scenarios to win this game.  Avoid giving up the big plays and the Bearcats win this game outright.  If I lose this game ATS it's because Miami has big play after big play which is obviously quite possible.  Miami has been actually pretty dreadful when they get into 3rd down scenarios converting around 25% with none of their 3 games going over 30% success.  Cinci stopped them on 3 of 10 last year, but still lost.  However, 5 of the 6 TD's for Miami last year are no longer on the team or hurt.  This game is also at on the road for Miami which tends to make a pretty significant difference.  The same third down issues have carried over to the red zone where Miami has had issues getting TD's, and again that's where Cincinnati can and will win this game.

The perception on Cincinnati is they are a bad 2-2 team, but they could easily be 2-0.  They have to avoid the turnovers that have plagued them and I think Hayden Moore could be the answer as Gunner Kiel threw 5 interceptions when he played.  The Bearcats have won 27 conescutive non conference games at Nippert Stadium and Moore and the offense will go up against a Miami secondary that will be without 2 safeties for the first half because of targeting.  Miami allowed 50% in their only road game on third down and that was to Florida Atlantic who played without their star dual threat QB.

Bottom line neither team can put pressure on the QB and the offenses should be the stories. I think 3 reasons to like this play.  1. we are getting a TD to work with (shop around), 2. we have the home field advantage, and 3.)  There is no way that Miami players have not been looking ahead to Florida State during their bye week.  If you want to add a few other reasons Al Golden is not the best coach here he has not done well after bye weeks and Miami is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Arizona State +5.5 3.3* play

This seems like a trap game here after USC lost to Stanford at home they are still 6 point favorites on the road.  I really think it says a lot about what Arizona State thinks about USC, but I’m not buying into it.  I think Arizona State has a lot to look forward to this year, and they haven’t played great the last few weeks.  You could argue they are saving it for this game as it is their most important game of the year.  Arizona State was not supposed to be good last year in a rebuilding year but pulled off 10 wins, and this year they return 16 starters.  Todd Graham is getting the most out of his players and it seems like the opposite for Steve Sarkisian.  Every time there is a big game he seems to lose, and despite the enormous amount of talent on this Trojans team I just think value is with the home team who will have a shot at pulling off the upset. 

Utah +12.5 2.75** play

It’s hard not to take Utah here, because what wins or covers on the road is defense and a good running game and Utah has both.  They also have a huge edge on special teams and coaching.  Kyle Whittingham is a very good coach and Mark Helfrich has to prove that he is this year without Mariotta, and being in his 3rd year with mostly the guys he’s recruited, and it hasn’t been a good start.

There are a lot of red flags for Helfrich in my opinion who has 12 guys returning.  This team was also extremely lucky last year with +23 TO’s which obviously is hard to repeat.  Oregon is 67th in yards per play allowed and they haven’t played anyone besides Michigan State, they are also 67th in run defense to Utah’s 34th.  Even more important is the fact that they have allowed teams 80% TD% success in the red zone on 15 attempts.  Whether it’s in garbage time or not and if Oregon plays well they will leave the back door cover open, but I don’t think it comes to that.  Devontae Booker will have a good enough game, and whether it’s Travis Wilson or Kendal Thompson it shouldn’t matter.  Utah has the edge with their kickers Andy Phillips and Tom Hacket and were 5-1 on the road last year beating UCLA, Michigan, Stanford, and only lost to Arizona State by 3.

UCLA -3 -105 3.3* PLAY

I rarely will take a road favorite in a situation like this, but my algorithms love UCLA in this situation and I do too.  First of all it says a lot about what the oddsmakers think of UCLA to make them favorites of 4.5 points, and now we are getting some value her eon UCLA despite some injuries to key players.  UCLA is a very deep team and one player does not make or break this team.  They are far more talented than Arizona who has not been able to beat Jim Mora at UCLA.  UCLA has beaten Arizona the last 3 years, but they will not be taking them lightly that’s for sure seeing as Arizona was the Pac 12 South champion a year ago.

The key for Saturday night’s game is UCLA staying dedicated to running the ball with Paul Perkins.  I believe they will do that behind their offensive line that’s playing as good as any.  Perkins is averaging 7.40 ypc on the season while they have only given up 1 sack.  QB Josh Rosen has definitely come back down to earth, but I think that only benefits them here.  Arizona can’t get to the QB, and yes they will have a 3-3-5 defense that might confuse him, but I expect him to be a bit humbled by this point in the season.  Coming off a 3 INT game I think he plays a lot more conservative which will only help UCLA win this game on the road.

UCLA were big favorites last week against Arizona and were down 20-10 late, but came back and won which also has to say a lot about this team, but this game is much more important to them than last week, and I expect them to come out and play one of their best games.  Arizona meanwhile returns just 12 starters, and has had issues that have been hidden in their 3-0 start.  For one they had far too many troubles with UTSA out of Conference USA.  Funny thing about the Road Runners is they were the least experienced team in the nation.  They returned 20 starters the previous year, but lost 31 lettermen.  UTSA lost 32-42 at Arizona, then went on to play 2 other power 5 conference teams in Oklahoma State and Kansas State and lose 17-99.  UTSA’s offense played the best by far against Arizona on the road and I expect UCLA to do whatever they want in this spot behind their offensive line while their defense dominated Arizona last year will again be able to make enough spots for them to win by a TD or more.

Auburn -3 +100 2* play

This is all about line value here, and we never should have played Auburn last week, but finally they are making the switch at QB that they needed to.  Sean White will take over, and they’ll face a Miss State that lost to LSU at home the week before by a much different score, but were equally dominated.

Auburn has been running the ball fine they just need a little balance with the threat of the pass game which I think they will have this week.  Malzahn said, “"Sean White is a guy that has gotten a lot of reps," said Malzahn. "He's responded very well in practice and very well in scrimmages. I feel like he needs a shot right now, and we've got a lot of confidence in him." "He's a guy that can flat-out throw it and he can run it to. He's got that little air of confidence that quarterbacks have."

Arkansas State +7 3.3* play

I really like the value here we are getting with Arkansas State, and I wish I jumped on them earlier in the week as my algorithims had them as a strong lean.  Toledo could easily be 0-2, but they beat power 5 conference teams in back to back weeks, and are sitting probably 3-4 points higher than they should be.  Despite winning against Arkansas and Iowas State who are probably 2 of the worst teams in their respective conferences, Toledo was out gained significantly in both (-197 Arkansas, -172 Iowa State).  

Arkansas State have played their share of power 5 conference schools in USC, and Missouri two teams I feel are much better than Arkansas and Iowa State, but they lost both and were only out gained by 71, and 108 which is pretty impressive.  This is well coached Arkansas State team we took them at home a few weeks ago against Missouri and it cashed and we are going to back them again here on the road against a defense they will have much more success against.

Purdue +5.5 5.5* POD; Purdue +180 1* bonus

The public is loving Bowling Green, a high scoring machine that already went on the road to beat a Big Ten team in Maryland.  First of all Maryland is not technically a Big 10 team until they do something having just entered the league.  The public perception about both of these teams is completely off and now the line has moved 8 points since opening with Purdue as a 2.5 point favorite.  I’m sold at this point Purdue wins this game outright if they play smart.

We backed Purdue the first Sunday of the season and thought we had a cashed ticket against Marshall, but it was an absolute collapse in the 4th quarter of a game that started with a pick 6 and ended with an interception as Purdue’s QB Appleby had 4 interceptions.  Purdue is making a change though and it comes at the right time against a paltry Bowling Green defense that has nobody worth mentioning.  This is a great opportunity for David Blough to come in and look good at QB.  Bowling Green can’t get pressure, and they are terrible vs. the run.  They are also coming off a pretty tough loss at home against Memphis that may be tough to get over here.

Purdue is a team that has a head coach in his 3rd year (I love these situations), with 15 returning starters.  They haven’t looked good yet, but watching the Marshall game I know this team is improved.  They improved drastically last year, and this year they returned the entire offensive line with 80+ starts.  I expect big days from both of their running backs Markell Jones who has 7.16 ypc and D.J. Knox who is a tough runner.  Purdue is also pretty good in key situations on defense which should help.  They have held opponents to 31.82% on third down while Bowling Green is just 37% at converting (I bet you thought it was better), and they held opponents to 53% TD % while Bowling Green (converting at 53%).  Defensively Bowling Green allowing 70% in the red zone on the road this year and 67% overall.  They are also not a very disciplined team with nearly 11 penalties a game ranking them 123rd in the country.  They have been opportunistic on defense which gave them the game against Maryland, but in three games only have forced 4 turnovers.  However, they are a MAC team.. 

The MAC is looking pretty good these days as Northern Illinois nearly beat Ohio State, and Toledo took down Arkansas both on the road.  However, the MAC West is far superior to the MAC East.  Ironically Purdue just 1-2 vs. the MAC have only played teams from the West.  MAC East on the road vs. Big Ten the last 2 years are 1-11 with the 1 win being Bowling Green at Maryland with +3 turnovers.  Purdue is much better than Maryland in my opinion who only returned 10 starters, and were -99.3 yards per game in the conference a year ago.

Duke +7.5 2.2* play

Both teams are off emotional losses from last week, but I think Duke survives them better being at home.  Georgia Tech actually lost a bigger game at Notre Dame and the TD loss was much worse as they scored twice in the final minutes.  Georgia Tech’s head coach Paul Johnson already called this Duke defense the best he’s seen in 8 years of coaching against them, and while they haven’t played anyone with this good of a defense they have slowly been improving the last few years and are very good against the pass holding opposing QB’s to 48% and the run ranking 19th.

The bigger story here is Georgia Tech is likely without some key players in A-back Qua Searcy, and their top receiver Mike Summers.  This could lead to QB Justin Thomas trying to make too much happen himself.  To me Duke is not that much worse in talent than Georgia Tech, and they are an extremely disciplined team.  Both teams are going to like to run the ball more shortening the game, and Duke is just too good in the red zone on defense and on third downs for me to bet against them.  I see extreme value in backing Duke this week as they are +10 TFL, +6 sacks, and only get penalized 6 times a game to go along with that they are holding opponents to 18% conversions on third down and haven’t allowed a red zone TD. This one should be a fun one to watch with defense and very low scoring.

Oregon State +14 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD

I am jumping on Oregon State here, I think this is a tough game for Stanford after they went on the road and beat USC a week ago.  I wouldn't typically select a Stanford team as having a hangover, but they could be without Kevin Hogan, but even with Kevin Hogan or a not 100% Kevin Hogan this is far too many points.  First of all the oddsmakers set the total at 44 so this is a pretty large spread we are looking at here.

I'm going with the large home dog with Gary Anderson coaching up this defense that is really under rated, while we have already seen Stanford's offense look awful in the past.  I just don't think you can count on a consistent offense from Stanford week in and week out and I'm still not sold on David Shaw as a coach.  The one thing I know is Gary Anderson is going to get the most out of his defense, and they have shown it already in 2015.  I also like the fact that Seth Collins, Oregon State's QB is more mobile than Northwestern's QB Thorson.  Collins has already rushed for nearly 300 yards on 44 carries.  I would not be shocked to see Oregon State pull off the upset, but I think it may be too early in the Gary Anderson era for that.