Arkansas +2 5.5% NCAAF POD

Just off the top I think we are seeing some value here with Arkansas following their near upset to Missouri State, but they were resting a lot of guys for this upcoming game at Cowboys Stadium, but also Bobby Petrino returned as Missouri State’s head coach so thought there was max motivation for them in that game.

Max Johnson took over at QB for A&M after the loss to App State and it was supposed to spark the offense, but despite their 17-9 win it did not spark the offense as Johnson was just 10-20 for 140 yards.  It got us a win and a cover, but I felt like we were very fortunate to cover with A&M last week.  Arkansas and Barry Odom prepared for Max Johnson last year when he was at LSU, which led to him being benched in the game so I think that helps here, and I don’t think A&M’s offense is able to take advantage of the clear weakness of Arkansas defense, which is their secondary.  A&M ranks 113th in epa pass offense and that has come against some suspect passing defense ranked 77th on average in epa pass defense.  A&M needs to run the ball to win games, and Arkansas thus far has been a rock against the run ranking 11th in ypc allowed, and they have been able to get to the QB ranking #1 in sacks.

A&M’s defense has been great and that will be a challenge for Arkansas, but I like Arkansas offensive line here that is very experienced and grading out as a top 5 unit overall.  Aggies are talented with 5 star guys across the board, but they have just two upper classmen on their 3 deep on the DL and 8 of the 12 are freshman.  Texas A&M also has struggled on defense when they have had to face a team that can beat you throwing the ball and passing the ball, and Arkansas ranks top 30 in both categories, but since Jimbo Fisher has come aboard they are just 1-9 vs. teams who are top 50 in rushing ypc and QB rating.  At this point are we really sure Jimbo is a good football coach worth all that money?  A&M also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 in September. 

Ole Miss / Tulsa Under 65.5 2.2% play

I don't think the market has caught up to just how good this Ole Miss defense is, and still brand them as this elite offense, but I think that's giving us value ot the under here.  Ole Miss will get their points against Tulsa, but at what point will they take their foot off the gas at home with their SEC opener up next against #8 ranked Kentucky.  Tulsa's defensive strength is their run defense, which is what Ole Miss likes to do the most.  Tulsa has scored 30+ points in each of their games, but have yet to play a defense like Ole Miss.  I think that's driving this total higher than it should be.  Both teams do like to play up-tempo, but I think Ole Miss will be running the clock late as this one stays under the total. 

Washington State +7 2.2% play

Good Bo, bad Bo.  We are fading bad Bo Nix on the road where he has 6-11 record 16TD/16INT.  Last week we backed Oregon as a small favorite and they upset BYU who was ranked and BO moved to 16-4 at home 30TD/2INT.  This is a game on the road at Washington ST, not an easy place to play, and Washington State’s defense should keep this one close.  They return 8 startesr with 4+ years of experience, and I can’t see this Oregon team getting separation against a decent team on the road.  Washington State upset Wisconsin in week 2 and had an easy game last week against Colorado State which gave them an opportunity to prepare for this game against Oregon.

Florida +10.5 2.2% play

Tennessee has never been a favorite by more than 7 points agaisnt Florida, and this surely puts a lot of pressure on this Tennessee team that I still have a lot of questions about.  This is a nice spot to back the Gators after back to back strugles, and I think we are at least getting a field goal of value here for Florida’s struggles vs. South Florida last week, which was the ultimate flat spot as they opened the season agaisnt two top 25 teams, and had Tennessee on deck.  However, I trust Billy Napier, as he’s 11-3-1 ATS as a dog, 8-3-1 ATS on the road, and I still think Florida has an advantage in this game, and it’s their running game.

Tennessee has struggled mightly vs. mobile QB’s,a dn despite ranking 19th in the young season they have played an average opponent ranking 96th in rushing ypc, and here they’ll face Florida who ranks 4th, and 12th in epa rush offense.  Tennessee to mobile QB’s last year went 1-2 giving up 195 yards to Matt Corral, 47 and 2 TD to Will Levis in a 3 point win, and 144 to Florida’s Emory Jones.  I look for Anthony Richardson to shine, but he doesn’t have to do it himself Montrell Johnson, and Trevor Etiene have looked the part early, and I think Florida will be able to run the ball here, which should keep this game close.

Tennessee’s offense has been great, but this is an obvious step up in competition, and while they are a run first team they do have to go against a good pass defense in Florida and I expect Florida to come up with some stops.  This is just too big of a line move and too much value here on Florida for me to pass up given their dominance in this series, and Tennessee’s struggles stopping mobile QB’s.

Notre Dame +2 3.3% play

Buy low spot here for Notre Dame going up against a 3-0 North Carolina team, and 70% of the tickets are on North Carolina, but I’m not buying the hype.  North Carolina’s win against App State certainly looks better, and their nearl loss against Georgia State looks worse, but the team coming off a bye is not a positive when you start 3-0.  The bye typically helps, but it has not helped this team under Mack Brown as they have had the bye the last two years against Notre Dame and they lost both games by double digits.  They also opened up last season and lost to Virginia Tech as a favorite, and lsot their bowl game to South Carolina by 17 points.  In 2019 they also lost both of their games with extra rest losing to Virginia Tech and Pitt. 

Getting away from home should be a good thing for the Irish, and I know the win against Cal is not something that has given many confidence, but the offensive line looked great in the second half and Drew Pyne looked better once he settled in, and I actually think Pyne is an upgrade at QB over the injured Tyler Buchner.  This is a great opportunity for Notre Dame who ranks 100th in YPP offense, but has gone up against an average 28th ranked ypp defense.  Here they face UNC who ranks 111th in ypp defense, and 109th in ypc allowed, which will be a key as Notre Dame needs to establish the run on the road.  North Carolina is also 115th in epa pass defense so there will be opportunities for Pyne to open up the run game by passing on first down, which I think we will see a bit of on Saturday.

Notre Dame’s defense is also the best unit North Carolina will face.  North Carolina’s offense has looked elite for sure ranking 10th in ypp, but it has come against an average opponent ypp defense ranking 92nd.  Drake Maye has been excellent at QB, but he’s faced an average opponent QB defense of 99th. The offensive line also still has issues as they gave up 3 sacks to Georgia State, and 3 sacks to App State.  I think Notre Dame’s defensive line here will give them issues.  Notre Dame’s defense overall ranks 41st in ypp allowed, and that has come agaisnt a tough schedule that featured Ohio State yet they rank 29th in epa pass defense.  Notre Dame’s opponent ypp differential is +1.7 while North Carolina’s opponent ypp differential is -0.25 ypp, which is a huge difference. 

Michigan State +3 3.3% play

This is an over reaction in my opinion, this line opened Michigan State -3.5, and is now at +3, and I understand there are some inuries on Michigan State side, but they are questionable for the game.  This is a great opportunity for Michigan State to bounce back at home. I love that Mel Tucker is taking accountability for the dreadful coaching last week, which we benefited from as we had Washington -3 in that game, but the secondary which continues to be an issue should not be the problem this week as Minnesota runs the ball 70% of the time.  Michigan State’s defensive strength is their run defense as they rank top 20 this year in ypc and epa, and last year they were top 20 as well.  Minnesota under Fleck has always been a run first offense and when facing a top 50 run defense they are just 6-9 since 2018, and 2 of those wins came against Fresno State. 

Minnesota’s #’s look great, but they have come against on average 104th ranked opponent ypp defense, and 113th opponent ranked offense + an FCS opponent.  This is a huge step up for Minnesota who is without their best down the field play maker in Chris Autman-Bell lost for the season.  Michigan State has injury concerns as well, but I’m banking on at least 1 or 2 of those guys coming back this week, and if they don’t I still feel good with how QB payton Thorne played in the second half on the road without his top target he looked like a difference maker.  Michigan State is the more balanced team they are significantly better on special teams ranking 21st to Minnesota’s 106th ranking, and they are better at limiting the turnovers ranking 1st in percentage of drives ending in a TO.  I think this is just a favorable match up for Sparty here, and they had a top 50 offense last year, so far Sparty ranks 32nd in ypp albeit against bad competition, but we saw them move the ball well last week in the second half vs. Washington without a running game.  Minnesota just 7-8 the last 4 seasons vs. a top 50 ypp offense.  I think Mel Tucker’s players really like him and they’ll fight for him in this hoem game as a dog.

TCU -2 2.2% PLAY 

Sonny Dykes returns to face his old team here, and is off a bye, which I think gives a huge edge to TCU.  SMU meanwhile had to go up to play Maryland last week in a 4 quarter battle and travel all the way back home to play their old coach.  I like the staff that Dykes brought with him to TCU and the hire of DC Joe Gillespie from Tulsa, a Broyles semifinalist twice, and beat SMU each of the last two years so there is plenty of familiarity here for TCU agaisnt SMU, but not as much for SMU other than the players knowing the scheme.

SMU has some glarring red flags to start the season starting with their run defense, which has allowed 200+ yards in each game and rank111th in ypc allowing.  Their offense ranks 90th in % of possessions ending in a TO , while TCU ranks 1st in that category.  TCU’s offense will be down their starting QB, but many could argue Max Duggan has more experience as the started and really is not a downgrade from Chandler Morris.  TCU has lost this game each of the last two times, but Sonny Dykes was on the other sideline. I think the bye week in combination with the familiarity of the players, and SMU’S weakness vs. the run, and TCU’s strenght runnign the ball will give TCU the win.

Georgia State +120 2.5% play

I think the wrong team is favored here despite the fact that we have a 3-0 team vs. an 0-3 team.  60% of the tickets are on Coastal Carolina, a team that has developed a bit of a brand name with their play the last few years and return their QB Grayson McCall, but they lost a ton of players from last year’s team and while they are off to the 3-0 start it’s a bit misleading having beat Army (home), Army doesn’t see spread pass first offenses often and struggle when they do, Gardner Webb, and Buffalo.  Georgia State meanwhile had two games against P5 opponents South Carolina, and North Carolina to start the season and nearly upset North Carolina, and then last week they played Charlotte and lost 41-42, which doesn’t shock me when they had Coastal on deck and just came off the brutal stretch to open the season.  They held leads in the second half in all 3 games, while Coastal has had to rally in all 3 of their wins.  This will be their first game on the road making it a more challenging proposition should they get down in this game.

Georgia State should be able to run the ball here, and control the game.  They started last season with a brutal schedule as well facing Army, UNC, Auburn, APP State, and went 1-4, but finished 4-1 including a win over Coastal Carolina.  This team returns 15 starters, but 17 of their 22 are upper classmen compared to Coastal Carolina’s 7.  They’re led by a 5th year dual threat Sr. QB in Grainger.

I’m betting on public perception, and what I perceive is value, and I think we have a hungrier team, that should be favorite, but isn’t because they’re 0-3..  I see them as a desperate team here with a tough stretch ahead so this game is almost a must win, and it’s also challenging for Coastal to have to travel on the short week.

Texas A&M -6.5 2.2% play

A&M getting some guys back on defense here, and looks like they will be getting their vocal leader Bryce Foster back at Center, which should make a huge advantage for this A&M offense that has not looked great to be nice, but that’s exactly the time I want to back a team.  This point spread was 9 a week ahead and we are getting 2.5 points of value based on last week’s results.  I honestly don’t know what Miami has really done to impress anyone thus far or warrant them to jump up to #13 in the AP poll.  I’m going to sell high on Miami, who is breaking in an entirely new offense and thus far Van Dyke hype has not lived up and he’s really struggling in the new offense.

Van Dyke really benefited last year form playing some bad defenses, and the best defense he faced was NC State who was down 5 starters.  I saw him late on throws against Southern Miss and was lucky on a few occasions not to turn the ball over and Southern Miss was not even getting pressure on him.  Now he has to go on the road and face this talented defensive line in a must win game for A&M at night at Kyle Field.  I get why the public is backing Miami 65% of the action, but there is a reason the team that’s ranked lower is still nearly a TD favorite in this one.  I think last week was a nice wake up call for this Aggies team, and they come with a great effort with some key guys returning to the lineup.

Washington -3 3.3% play

Michigan State probably the most popular dog this week, and I think it’s going to be a very tough game for them.  Not only are they going very far west something they are not used to doing – 0-5 overall in the history of their program, but they are playing much improved Washington team that brought in Kalen Deboer as the HC, previously Fresno, and OC at Indiana, and he brings Indiana QB transfer Michael Penix who has looked completely healthy.  This is a great match up for Washington, because Michigan State’s defensive weakness is the secondary, and a Deboer offense wants to throw, the strength of their offensive line is in pass protection and they have a capable QB that had his best season hen Deboer was his OC.  Washington also top 25 recruiting classes in 4 of their past 5 years while Michigan State not bringing in as much talent.

I love what Mel Tucker has been doing, and 11-2 last year are signs of great things to come, but I believe they over achieved.  They have one WR off the the NFL, Kenneth Walker their do all RB off to the NFL, and I don’t know Payton Thorne is good. I know he did well last year and 15 TD and 5 INT on the road last year, but he only faced 1 team with a top 50 pass defense and they lost.  He’s looked very sketchy so far this season vs. Akron he had 0 passing TD and 2 INT, and could be without his top WR target Jaylen Reed.  He’s probable, but probably not 100%. 

Ole Miss / Georgia Tech Under 63.5 2.2% play

Both teams here are run first teams, and Georgia Tech’s defense at home has proven they are decent at stopping the run as they held Clemson to under 3 yards per carry.  Ole Miss does not have nearly the talent they had a season ago with Jaxson Dart transferring over from USC at QB.  He’s not Matt Corral and Ole Miss lost their top 3 RB and top 3 WR.  They got a lot in the transfer portal but chemistry takes time.  I think Ole Miss is a team that will lean heavily on their defense this season.  Georgia Tech’s offense lacks any sort of weapons despite having what most consider a talented QB in Jeff Simms, but I expect them to really struggle against an SEC defense. 

Oregon -3.5 2.2% play

Horrible spot for BYU here after a double OT win at home against a ranked Baylor team, a game that could have gone either way.  I think we are buying low on Oregon after they lost to Georgia 49-3 to open the season now hosting #12 BYU and they’re favorites.  BYU likely without their top two WR again making this game even more desirable with Oregon, a defense that is still learning Dan Lannings system, but can only improve. BYU’s offense led by QB Jaren Hall struggles under pressure and have struggled running the ball.  I like Oregon’s edge here to at home to force Hall into some turnovers, which is why I like Oregon to cover this #.  Bo Nix for all the criticism he gets has been a monster at home over his career 28 TD’s and only 2 INT’s and +2 yards per pass attempt.  I think Nix has a mistake free game and Oregon gets a big win for Lanning against a top 25 opponent.

Nebraska +11 3.3% PLAY

I think we get at least a one game bump from Nebraska players, fans following the firing of Scott Frost.  They will welcome in Oklahoma for the old rivalry.  This was a 7 point game in Norman last year, which is nothing new with Nebraska as each of their last 13 losses have come by single digits.  I like the value we are getting here, and the fact that there is stability and leadership following Frost’s departure.  Mickey Joseph takes over as interim head coach and is a long time family friend of QB Casey Thompson who is an extremely mature and experienced QB capable of leading the team after a change like this.  Mark Whipple also remains as the OC, and has plenty of experience.

Oklahoma has a new defensive minded coaching staff led by Venebles who brought in UCF OC Lebby and QB Gabriel.  However, it has not been the Lincoln Riley offense as the offensive line has really struggled so much that they gave up 3 sacks to Kent State, and were trailing 3-0 with a minute to go in the half.  Kent State year in and year out has some of the worst defenses ranking outside the top 100 so there is obvious regression on this side of the ball.  This will be Oklahoma’s first road trip under Venables and I think Nebraska will show up here to make a statement.  15mph winds expected, which also typically leads to closer games.

Purdue +1.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

We have two one dimensional offenses of different styles going against each other as we have a clash of the Big Ten and ACC.  First off the Big Ten has gone 8-4 vs. the ACC outscoring them by a TD since 2020 so while these two teams appear to be about the same in their given conference I think Purdue and this coaching staff led by Brohm have definitely proven they are the better team.  This is a team that showed they could win on the road winning 5 games last year and are 9-3 ATS overall as an away dog under Jeff Brohm.  Meanwhile, Syracuse as a home favorite under Baber 8-7 ATS as a home favorite.

Purdue’s run defense is going to be the big match up here as Syracuse has a run first offense led by mobile QB Garret Shrader and the great RB Sean Tucker.  Purdue ranks 34th in epa run defense and held Penn State in check in their first game, and allowed less than 4 ypc on the road a season ago. 

Purdue runs a spread 60%+ pass first offense, that I think is harder to defend than Syracuse option run offense.  It also helps that Syracuse ranks 108th in epa pass defense, and ranked outside the top 100 a season ago.  While their designed 3-3-5 defense is built to defense the spread their defense is extremely young especially in the secondary. I actually think Purdue who has a size advantage up front with 3 of their 5 OL being upper classmen and an average total weight of 308lbs.  I look for Purdue to be able to get some explosive plays in this game, which was something they were able to achieve in week 2 but not in the game against Penn State.

I gave out Syracuse at home vs. Louisville in week 1 and it was an easy casher.  Syracuse has a very good home field advantage in a dome, but this is an early noon kickoff, and I think Purdue’s pass first play style is something that will give them trouble.  They only played two teams a season ago that were pass first offenses (Pitt, NC State) those teams won by 17 and 24 putting up 31 and 41 points respectively and dating back 2019 they are 0-7 vs pass first teams, and they have yet to face a team that passes over 60% of the time like Purdue typically does.  Last note on this one.. Jeff Brohm was a +7 dog vs. Dino Babers Bowling Green team back in 2014, and Western Kentucky won 59-31.

South Carolina +24.5 2.2% play

Huge recruiting weekend for South Carolina and the atmosphere should be great hosting the #1 team in the nation.  I said it last week.  This is a team I want to back.  They don’t give up on their coach Shane Beamer.  This was a 13-40 game at Georgia last year as South Carolina covered the 31 point spread.  This spread is essentially saying these teams are the same as last year and I could not disagree more.  After watching the Arkansas game it is clear that South Carolina is able to move the ball through the air and have some capable weapons, but it remains a run first team, which helps us when we are trying to cover 24 point spread.  The team is also a lot deeper, and dealing with some key injuries, but that is in this number, and they are in a better position to handle those than they were a year ago.  Next man up.

Georgia also runs a different offense than Arkansas, and South Carolina is at home where they played far better on defense a year ago.  Georgia defense at some point will show that they have taken a step back on defense and I think it shows up in their first road game.  We are selling high on Georgia here as 70% of the tickets are on Georgia.  Everyone saw the shutout of Oregon, and I think that still is impacting this line we are getting here for Georgia in their first road game, and even if they get up 31-0, South Carolina is going to fight for their coach, and with a capable QB a back door cover is clearly possible.  I’m not playing this for a back door cover.  I expect South Carolina’s best effort at home facing #1 team on a huge recruiting weekend.

Florida State -135 2.5% play

Louisville is an awful 12-28-1 ATS int heir last 31 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Scott Satterfeld since taking over is only 8-7 at home, and the wins have come against Syracuse 3x, BC 2x, FSU 2 years ago, Wake and Virginia.  I think FSU has improved greatly since the beginning of last year when they lost to Louisville at home 23-31.  At that time Jordan Travis was not the starter and we know that once Travis took over this FSU team really trended up.  Travis looked like he took the next step in the game game vs LSU to open the season and they really dominated the first 3 quarters of that game before almost losing it at the end.  I haven’t seen anything from Louisville to warrant them being a home favorite against trending FSU team.

Louisville has struggled in run defense allowing two 200+ yard, 5+ypc performances against two one dimensional offenses.  I think Florida State will be able to move the ball here on the ground, and Travis looks like he is now capable throwing the ball on the road as he did in the opener.

Also worth noting is that FSU has some ties on the UCF coaching staff who played Louisville last week.  There will definitely be some sharing of notes on how to defend Cunningham.  FSU has not been able to do it in the past, but I think the fact that they have an extra week of preparation here off the bye where last year it was Louisville with an extra day of prep could be the difference.  They also just got done preparing and facing a mobile QB in Jayden Daniels and while they gave up 116 yards to him they only gave up 139 as a team.  This is a public play on Florida State I think it will be highly competitive game, and the ML offers more value.  I’m fine laying it on public side here as I think Florida State players are buying in excited after 2-0 start, which is a big difference from last year’s 0-3 start when they faced Louisville.

Baylor +125 3% play 

Boston College +3 2.2% play

Virginia Tech at night is a rough place to play with Enter Sandman blaring as the Hokies come onto the field, but it hasn’t been as challenging in recent memory.  With a new coaching staff taking over, and despite a veteran team they were not very good a week ago.  HC Brent Pry said he was surprised how sloppy they were, 5 TO’s 14 penalties.  They are all correctable, but in a week?  Boston College has the better head coach and QB, and  Zay Flowers is a game changer at WR.  BC also went into Clemson last year and played that game to the wire.  I think BC can pull the upset, but it will be a closely contested game so I’m taking the 3 points.

Kentucky + 6 3.3% play 

I think we are getting a ton of value with Kentucky here after Florida upset Utah last week in the swamp.  Anthony Richardson is a top 5 Heisman candidate and an unranked Flroida team is now ranked #12, it’s almost laughable.  I like Billy Napier as the HC, but lets just slow down a bit.  Even Napier said it was going to take some time, and Kentucky has had Florida’s number the last few years and now we are getting a few extra points based on last week’s results.   I also like that Kentucky had a MAC team in week 1, and were able to prepare a bit for Florida over the summer while Florida was focused on top 10 Utah.  A Utah team that really shot themselves in the foot coming away with 0 points on two trips inside the 10, and of their 6 trips in the red zone they turned it over twice, and settled for 2FG’s.  They were able to move the ball with ease on this Florida defense.

Kentucky plays with a lot of passion and a chip on their shoulder, and I like their chances here to contain Anthony Richardson who has a lot more to prove at this point.  Kentucky really held Richardson in check in last year’s meeting, and I think they can force him to be a passer.  Richardson did not have a single attempt to the left side of the field, which to me just goes to show you that he’s got to gain a lot more confidence.

Kentucky has some injuries at RB, but I think they’ll be just fine and Will Levis at QB is a capable runner here.  Kentucky also holds the edge in special teams and are a far better tackling team.  Again, I like Napier, but this is too much credit.  One of the reasons Dan Mullen got fired was talent, and recruiting and I just think this ends up being a close game.

Iowa -175 2.5% play 

Navy +180 2% play 

South Alabama/ Central Mich Under 59 2.2% play

Central Michigan's offense exploded last week against Oklahoma State for 44 points, but much of that came after Oklahoma State benched some of their starters and were trying to close out the game.  Oklahoma State's defense also lost a ton of their veteran leadership including their DC.  I think we are getting inflated total here, because of that, and South Alabama typically has a strong defense.

South Alabama's DC is Kane Wommack, and he really has done a great job wherever he's been, Indiana was his last stop.  Central Michigan should go back to leaning on the running game behind last year's leading rusher NIchols, and South Alabama's offense was 110th in pace a season ago.

Army/UTSA OVER 54 2% PLAY

Southern MIss +25 2.2% play 

South Carolina +8.5 2.2% play

fsu +4.5 3.3% play 

Syracuse +5 2.2% play

This is a big divisional game to kick off the season in the ACC with two head coaches feeling the pressure of their jobs on the line.  With that said there is a lot of love in the market for Louisville due to QB Malik Cunningham, but I'm not so sure they should be a road favorite here, and the line has moved up to +5, giving us even more value on Syracuse, a team that returns 17 guys.  Syracuse also lost 71-3 the last two years to Louisville, and don't think that's been on their mind all spring/summer long.  

Aside from the returnign players it will be the second season of DC Tony White's system (3-3-5), and they bring in OC Robert Anae from Virginia who has experience runnign the spread with heavy run and heavy pass, and I think we will see him lean on the running game, which is the strength of this offense with Garret Scharaeder and Sean Tucker.  They ran for 198 yards against Louisville last year, the big key is to keep the game close early so they are not forced to pass.  Anae's Virginia team put 500+ yards up on Louisville's defense, and it was all by the pass, and I think we will see a more balanced Syracuse offense this year with their top 3 receivers returning.  Special Teams, which was a huge issue last year can only improve with a new ST coach as well, and you can't forget that the Carrier Dome now JMA Wirelless Dome is a very hard place to play especailly at night. 

Louisville's HC Scott Satterfeld to me has been a disspointment, just 4-10 on the road, and I don't see how it's going to get any better this year.  I think they're in the mix for another 7-5 season. I think this game comes down to the wire, and it's a game that Syracuse can steal. 

Utah -2.5 3.3% play 

Ohio +4.5 2.2% play 

Oregon/Georgia Under 54.5 2.2% play 

Dan Lanning takes over at Oregon, and he is very familiar with Georgia’s offense, as a defensive minded coach I think that makes a big difference here.  Oregon also has a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and Georgia lost a ton of talent on offense including their top RB, and top targets Pickens and Burton.  Kirby Smart has been a conservative football coach and I think we continue to see that, and I don’t think Stetson Bennett is going to be able to take them to the next level.

Oregon’s offense on the flip side breaks in a new QB in Bo Nix who Georgia is plenty familiar with and even though Georgia lsoes a ton on defense Kirby’s defense will be elite again.  Oregon also lost Dye and Verdell who were keys to the offense a year ago.  This offense is going to look very different later in the year, but it’s going to struggle in game 1. Georgia gets a big lead and will be content to sit on it.

Rutgers +7 2.2% play 

Rutgers +7

By brand it seems like Rutgers is the far worse team, and that is giving us some value in the line in my opinion, but closer looks reveals the fact that Rutgers is playing in the tougher conference Big Ten and had similar statistics last year against a far tougher schedule.  For instance their opponents average YPP differential was +0.16, while BC’s were -0.32.  

There are also a ton of familiarities between these two staffs, which means to me a close game.  Hafley coached on Schiano’s staff at Rutgers and in the NFL, and both OC/DC, ST coordinators for Illinois coached under Schiano as well.

BC breaks in a new OC, and 5 new starters on the offensive line, while Rutgers strength is in the secondary they have great depth on the DL, and I think this game goes down to the wire.  Rutgers should get better QB play this year, and they played much better in the early part of last season and should have an edge on special teams here.

North Carolina +1.5 1% 

I’ll take the extra 3 points of value as North Carolina opened -4 now down to -1 for the instate show down between App State and North Carolina.  App State is very much a public dog, as the public knows very well that this team has been able to upset the P5 opponents.  In fact they upset North Carolina in 2019, in Mack Brown’s first season, but I would point to the fact that North Carolina was hosting #1 ranked Clemson the next week. 

Part of this line movement is also, because UNC played FAMU last week as a 45 poitn favorite and only led 35-24 in the third, but I think we saw some good things form Drake Maye at  QB, which is the biggest question mark of this team.  Maye spread the ball around, and has to have confidence behind a veteran OL.  App State also has a veteran OL, two top RB, and veteran QB in Chase Brice, but Brice still turnover prone, 30 INT’s in his career, and in 2020 vs. UNC at home went 11-23, and had 0TD and 1 INT.

Mack Brown has emphasized winning on the road as the key to this team’s season.  They haven’t won on the road in 630 days, and wouldn’t it be perfect to get a win against App State as a basic dog vs. little brother.  I think the talent gap comes out and UNC wins this game.

Indiana -1 2.2% play 

Indiana is really flying under the radar here, and they go up against an Illinois team that blew out Wyoming last week and is getting all kinds of great press.  I’m not buying into Illinois, and the praise everyone is giving their transfer QB Tommy Devito who could not hack it at Syracuse.  Wyoming also had huge roster issues with transfers, and not surprised at all that Illinois was able to run it up on them.  Devito getting praise for 5.2 yards per pass attempt, and now he goes on the road on Friday night in the Big Ten.  Indiana also been able to prepare for Illinois didn’t have a game last week, and there is no tape with Indiana bringing in a new OC and a ton of transfers I think Illinois will be guessing early.

Indiana had a tough year last year going 2-10, after they lost Penix to injury and had a couple close losses, and were -13 TO.  They have a ton of transfers, and Tom Allen’s best recruiting class.  I see why some are hesitant and are backing Illinois, but I still think Tom Allen is a better coach than Bielema and I think Indiana has more talent at this point.  I really think we see talented QB Connor Bazelak, transfer from Missouri get the nod, and Indiana will be getting the hype after this one. playing a smart game allowing his defense to control the game.

Penn State -3.5 2.2% play

Purdue is a bit of a public dog here, and I like Purdue as a dog under Jeff Brohm, but not in this spot to open the season against a more talented team.  Purdue is not going to sneak up on anyone at this point, and I'm sure Franklin has highlighted this to his team as Purdue has had major upsets under Brohm including twice against a #2 ranked team.  I think it is also a lot to ask Purdue to be competiive in a year they lost 3 players to the NFL draft.

Sean Clifford was banged up all year long and got no help from a running game.  When healthy Clifford is a very good player, and expect to see that showcased tonight.  I like the fact that they brought in Michell Tinsley from Western Kentucky (1402 receiving yards) Parker Washington returns, and they got the Gatorade player of the year in RB Nicholas Singleton who should be a huge asset for Penn State.  The defense only returns 4 starters, but I expect they'll be just fine and be able to get pressure from the defensive line and cause some turnovers tonight with new DC Manny Diaz back where he belongs in the DC role. 

Central Michigan +21.5 2.2% play 

UTEP +1.5 1.1% PLAY 

Northwestern +11.5 2.2% play 

Northwestern +11.5 2.2% play

Any time your see Pat Fitzgerald as an underdog and a double digit underdog you have to take a look.  Last year was probably an outlier, and it makes sense they had just 4 starters returning on defense, with a new DC, off a covid year.  This year I expect to see a much improved Northwestern team, that has a very experienced OL, and a QB in Ryan Hilinski who could make great strides.  This game is played in Ireland, and I expect Northwestern to be the more diciplined team.

Scott Frost tenure at Nebraska has been frustrating, and I understand that 3-9 campaign was the best 3 win team of all time.  We benefited from backing Nebraska countless times, but Frost had to clean house to keep his job.  I personally don't like to back a team with so many changes early in the season.  I'm not sure I'm a fan of Casey Thompson starting at QB.  I thought Adrian Martinez really took a lot of the blame for the struggles of this team.  He would have the TO's that cost them games, but he also had to carry this offense on his shoulders, led the team in rushing.  Casey Thompson has only 10 career starts, not nearly as dynamic as Martinez, and showed struggled in road games, and vs. top defenses.  Northwestern's defense should be improved, and the strength is in their secondary.  I expect a very close game to start the year here, and when you consider 18-20 were all close games between these two with the spread being 7 or less points, and Northwestern take 2 of those 3, we have line value.  Last year's blowout loss should be on Northwestern's mind, and I think that is why we have some line inflation here. 

Alabama +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

First off lets address the "sharp" vs. "public joe," because it does appear that 60% of the tickets are on Bama, and just 40% of the money.  I think many are number grabbers pointing to the fact that, hey Georgia was -6.5 on a neutral in the SEC Championship, and now they are -3 or even -2.5 in places.  The look ahead was actually 3.5 for that game, but Alabama struggled with Auburn and we get 3 points of line movement.  If anything this is great news for the Alabama side, because there is no rat poison for NIck Saban's players to feel overly confident even though they just beat this team by double digits.  It only helps that many of the radio and guys who say they are sharp are also on Georgia here.  Many of those guys that are said to be sharp, are not transparent on their records and don't win long term.  

Some other concerns here are the fact that Menchie is out for Alabama, and while that's a big loss, they replace him with another 5 star WR that has more talent in Ja"Corey Brooks who had 4 catches, 66 yards and a TD vs. Cincinnati.  There are some bumps and bruises on the right side of the offensive line, but those are being hush hush, and I think there won't be an issue.  Bryce Young can't play out of his mind again, but I think you have to factor in Brian Robinson is healthy again, and wasn't for the SEC Championship.  Jameson Williams is a difference maker and the main reason Alabama struggled vs. Auburn.  We saw the difference with him in the game, and I'm sure Georgia makes adjustments to take him out of the game, but that opens things up for Bolden, Billingsley, and Brooks and others in this passing game.

Georgia's offense in recent match ups has come out throwing on Alabama, mainly bc that seems to be the weakness of the defense, and it is again this year.  You can't ignore that Stetson Bennett has played better agaisnt Alabama in his last outing, but still he threw 2 interceptions, and I still question now that Alabama is able to take that game and make adjustments.  Honestly when we take out the two Alabama games he has had 13 opponents he's gone up against and they have had an average 73 ypp defense, and those teams who averaged 73rd rank ypp went against an opponent average of 59.3 ypp offense.  He's really only gone up against a total of 4 top 40 defenses including the two times against Alabama.  He struggled this year against Florida who ranked 39th in ypp, and he had a great game against Michigan, but they had extra month to prepare, and lets be honest Michigan was not the 8th ranked defense, they played an easy schedule of offenses averaging 73.5 in ypp.  Alabama ranks 7th, and their opponent average ypp offense is 51.  In my opinion Alabama's defense is totally getting disrespected with all the talk on Georgia's defense, which has flaws.  Their secondary does not have the speed to keep up with Alabama's receivers, and Alabama with their hurry up can take the defensive line out of the game.  It's really up to Stetson Bennett in this game, and can he make adjustments again to make his game better?  I just don't think the talent is there for him to pull something we haven't seen before, and going up against Nick Saban who will make his own adjustments from the last game.

Adjustments, and psychological advantage on the Alabama side. You really can't argue that.  2017 Georgia played Alabama in the National Championship game and led 13-0 at the half, but then adjustments and Saban went to a backup QB, and they outscored Georgia 26-10 to win in OT.  In fact Alabama has outscored Georgia in the second half 85-24 in the last 4 meetings including the 2017 game.  They trailed in 3 of the 4 in the first half 75-58.  So if we consider this second game of the season like a second half, where both teams have limited time to review and make adjustments, history tells us that Alabama is going to have the advantage, and I think that advantage is on their defense which is held Georgia to 6ppg in the second half of games.  Stetson Bennett could prove me wrong, but until I see it there is only one play here and it's on Alabama as a dog.

Under 53.5 2% play 

Ole Miss -1.5 3.3% play

I love the fact that Matt Corral will play in this game, and I love that Ole Miss will be going for their 11th win for the first time in program history.  Baylor has had a remarkable season, and I have to give Dave Arranda a lot of credit.  I faded this team multiple times under Arranda, and I was flat out wrong.  With all of that being said, I think Ole Miss has an advantage in the dome here, some of their stats, which are already better against tougher competition are off, because Corral was not healthy most of the year and he rarely had all 3 of his receivers healthy, but they will in this game.  Baylor will start Gerry Bohannon who missed time with a hamstring issue, but how healthy is he, and at what point in the game does the hamstring become an issue if at all?

Honestly both teams had similar schedules, but Ole Miss +0.9 ypp differential, vs. an average opponent 0.37 is impressive compared to Baylor +0.7 vs. 0.225.  Both teams went 5-1 against opponents who had a +0.7 or higher yard per play differential, and Ole Miss only loss against Alabama, while Baylor lost to Oklahoma State, and should have lost to Iowa State (go back and look).  In that 5-1 span Ole Miss played the tougher competition those teams averaged 0.98 ypp differential against their opponent 0.15 ypp,  and Ole miss +9.6 points in their wins, while Baylor’s opponetns average 0.92ypp vs. opponent average of +0.04, and won by a margin of 8.8 points per game.  So all around very close, but what gets me to play this game here is Matt Corral is the better QB, some of Ole Miss stats are off because of the major injuries, and I actually like that Ole Miss defense stepped up when they were not 100% on offense. 

Utah +4.5 3.3% play / Utah +165 0.7% bonus

Iowa +3.5 -120 3% play

Arkansas -125 5.5% NCAAF POD

Alabama / Cinci Under 57.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Nick Saban, a month to prepare for tendencies and strengths, and I think the game plan will be to run the ball, and avoid turnovers.  Alabama came out running no huddle against Georgia, which made a lot of sense, and I think the offense looked great giving us an inflated total here.  Against Cinci, the way to attack them is in the running game. They boast two of the best corners in all of football, the #7 epa pass defense, and 18th sack %, but this defensive front is under sized.  Alabama without Menchie at WR, so I think the plan of attack will be on the ground, which obviously makes the under very attractive.

For Cinci's offense, I'm really not sure how they move the ball with consistency.  All of their big plays come on early downs, and you bet Alabama will be ready for that.  Desmond Ridder is really going to have to play the game of his life to win or put up points, because Alabama #2 in run defense, they're #41 in epa pass defense, and 8th in getting to the QB.  Ridder against good defenses have not been pretty and his offense has benefited largely from the Cinci defense forcing turnovers.  They rank 3rd in forced turnover percentage per drive, but Alabama is 9th on offensive TO% per drive.  I don't anticipate they will have that edge here.

CMU / Wash St over 57 2.2% play 

Wisconsin -6.5 2.2% play 

Arizona State without their top 2 RB, top 2CB, but this handicap seems a bit basic to me.  Arizona State only wins games when they control the trenches and avoid the turnover. +4 to margin in wins -5 in losses more on this later.  In wins they run for 5.76 ypc, and losses 4.15.  They were also not a good running team away form home compared to home where they averaged over a ypc more, and they’ll be going up against one of the best run defenses in the country in Las Vegas, where Wisconsin should have a bit of home field advantage.  Wisconsin fans travel well to every sport.  Defensively Arizona State is very good, but allowed 3.01 ypc in wins, and 4.63 ypc in losses.  They allowed 1.36ypc more on the road this year.  Wisconsin has the advantages in run defense and run offense.  Arizona State just 1-3 vs. teams that are in the top 50 in rushing offense giving up a TD more than their 20.9ppg allowed overall in those games.  Their 4 losses this year were by double digits.  Arizona State also faced just one team in the top 75 in success rate defense, and Wisconsin is #2.  They’ll have to do it without their top 2 RB, their C who was All Pac 12, and their top 2 CBs.  I don’t trust Jayden Daniels to win this game for Arizona State.  When he was held under 50 yards this year they were just 1-4 scoring 17, 21,21, 10 and 42 points in those games.  Wisconsin boasts the #2 epa run defense, #1 in ypc, and held a similar QB in Adrian Martinez to only 23 yards on 9 carries.

I believe the issues that were giving Wisconsin problems early that led to losses were turnovers and that was cleaned up.  They had -11 to margin in their first 5 games, and finished +12 in their final 7 games.  Arizona State actually ranked 104th in to% per drive, and Daniels had just as many issues as Mertz.ew  Graham Mertz is still not the answer, but it seems like Arizona State’s run defense can be had and unless Wisconsin announces a bunch of players out due to covid I like this number, and I’ll back the Badgers in what should be a close game. Wisconsin also has the edge on special teams.

Michigan State -3 2.2% play 

Tennessee -6 2.2% play

Tennessee wants to go fast, and Hooker has been a blast to watch.  Purdue is playing without their top two WR, Bell and Wright, their starting LT Greg Long is doubtful, and best defender George Karlaftis is preparing for the NFL draft.  They also are without their Sr CB Dedrick Mackey who dind’t make the trip for academic issues.  I don’t think these losses in this match up have been properly calculated into the line.  Purdue no longer has the offensive fire power to keep up with Tennessee in my opinion.  Tennessee’s defensive weakness is vs. the run, but Purdue passes the ball 62% of the time, and will be without their top weapon.

Every time a defense faces this offense for the first team it takes time to adjust, and I think Tennessee can go up early in this one.  Purdue has not seen anything like the speed that is going to be run by Tennessee and it’s going to be a huge adjustment.

Other factors here are the fact that Purdue also very prone to the turnovers ranking 112th in turnovers per possession and that was with their top targets and LT in the game.  Tennessee takes care of the ball ranking 34th in to% per drive.  Tennessee also has a huge edge in special teams ranking 7th to 102nd.

Oregon/ Oklahoma Over 60 2.2% play

Tonight’s game between Oregon and Oklahoma is particularly difficult with so much change going on for both teams, but I have a strong feeling for the over.  

I think Oregon’s defense is really going to struggle against Caleb Williams, and Kennedy Brooks in this game.  Oregon ranked 100th in success rate defense this year despite the other numbers that would suggest they were a dominating defense.   Oklahoma vs. a non top 80 success rate defenses have average 41.67ppg.  Oklahoma’s offense is largely intact and first time play caller Cale Gundy has been around for years in the booth, and I feel he will call a good game against this Oregon defense missing their best defensive player.

Both offenses struggled a bit when facing top 50 epa run defenses, Oklahoma scoring 25.16 on average, and Oregon scoring 20.75 on average, but both teams will be missing depth and starters from their defensive front 7.  Oklahoma will be missing 4 of their 7 starters in the front 7, their pass defense ranks 108th in qb rating 123rd in epa pass defense, and they won’t have their defensive coordinator for this game with Odom taking over as a first time play caller.  Oregon’s offense has averaged 39.4 ppg vs. teams not called Utah.  Against poor pass defenses they averaged 38.6ppg.  I think it’s an opportunity for Anthony Brown and the Oregon offense with the extra time with the younger receivers to put up some points on an Oklahoma defense that is sometimes aggressive causing explosive plays.

Another reason I expect points here are both defenses have struggled when facing top 50 epa rushing offenses.  Oklahoma gave up 29ppg, while Oregon gave up 30.16 ppg.  Oregon also playing without some of their top defensive players.  I think we see a fun game here with a lot of points, and the total is a bit lower than it would be, but Oregon really struggled against Utah in 2 of their last 3 games. 

Clemson -1 3.3% play 

Louisville +1 2.2% play 

Auburn -120 4.5% play 

Florida -6.5 1.1% 

Army / Missouri Over 56 3.3% play

Situationally this is not a good time to play a triple option team.  Missouri really didn’t get extra preparation as Drinkewitz admitted they started a game plan this week, because of recruiting, and the players are in finals week, and their DC Steve Wilks hasn’t prepared for triple option as he spent the past decade in the NFL.  Missouri also among the worst run defenses ranking 115th in ypc, 120th in epa run defense.  When they faced top rushing offenses the defense allowed 37.5 ppg.  They did play better down the stretch after their bye, but perhaps that is why this total has come down 3 points.  At the end of the day this defense still gave up 28 points to Vanderbilt.

For Army, they just lost to Navy 10 days ago when this game starts, and it’s not a ton of time to prepare for an SEC opponent who is not announcing a starting QB, which really makes game planning much more difficult for Army.  Missouri will still have the best offensive player on the field in RB Tyler Badie.  Drinkewitz is also an offensive mind so if he’s going to spend his time on anything it’s going to be making sure the offense clicks and he better considering this is a stand alone game on Wednesday night.   Army ranks 89th in ypp defense, and Missouri against top 65 ypp defenses have only average 18.8ppg, but in their 5 games against non-top 65 defenses they have eclipsed 30 points in every game, and an average of 36.8.  Army is actually the worst ypp defense that Missouri has faced all year except Vanderbilt, who they scored 37 points on. 

Army tends to slow games down as do most service academies, but service academies are on a 19-11 over run.  Missouri 126th in 10+ yard plays allowed, Army is top 10, both teams also very good in red zone TD% on offense and very poor on defense.  Missouri’s defensive line on standard downs ranks 116th, 92nd in power success and 75th in stuff rate looks awfully similar to Wake Forest’s 105th, 69th, and 71st rankings, and Army scored 56 points in that game.  This should be a fun game with lots of points, and I like that the total has come down quite a bit since open.  Game will be played in Fort Worth, TX at TCU’s stadium where the weather should be pretty good.

UTSA +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think this game means more to UTSA, they will have the crowd edge in Frisco, TX and I’m a bit surprised they are dogs here, but the Mountain West just gets more respect than C-USA, but they are just 11-10 vs. C-USA in bowl games.  We already saw UTEP go toe to toe with Fresno State, and that was much more of a mismatch than this game.  In reality on paper UTSA is the better team, far more balanced overall where San Diego State is a very good team, but they have a very bad offense.  They’ll rely on running the ball, but they still rank just 83rd in EPA run, and they are going up against a very good run defense that play physical football, and ranks 29th in epa run defense. 

San Diego State played 3 top run defenses this year and scored 19, 20, and 20 points.  UTSA is without their star RB who opts out to prepare for the NFL draft, but if there is a position I’d want to lose, it would be RB.  They still have their leader Frank Harris at QB, and San Diego State’s defense has not faced a mobile QB this season.  IF you remember they played Utah gave up 31 points at home, won the game, but that was the first game for Cam Rising at QB, and he had 50 rushing yards against this San Diego State defense.  Facing a top defense is nothing new for UTSA and I think they’ll enjoy the challenge.  They faced 4 top 40 ypp defenses and averaged 35.5 points per game in those games eclipsing 27 or more points in each.

I have tremendous respect for Jeff Traylor he’s a winner, and they beat a Western Kentucky team in their Championship game that dominated in bowl season.  They have hit many goals this year, beating a Big 10 opponent, getting 12 wins, and a C-USA Championship, but going for a 13th win is something very special especially since it would be their first bowl win ever.  Jeff Traylor is one hell of a coach we backed them against Western Kentucky in the C-USA Championship, and it paid off and I’ll do it again here.  Traylor missed last year’s bowl game because of COVID protocols, and his team still nearly upset Louisiana Lafayette as a +14 dog.  They got behind 24-7, and crawled back to tie the game in the 4th.  This is a team that does not give up plays hard football, and I think they get the upset here.   Brady Hoke has had a great season, but I feel like the luck runs out here.  He’s just 2-3 in bowl games and when this defense played a top 50 ypp offense they went 1-1, but gave up 30 points in both games.  The only reason I’m not taking the money line here is these are two defensive teams, San Diego State plays a lot of close games, and the 3 points mean a lot more than getting +122.

Kent State +3.5 2.2% play / Kent State +150 1% play

This is a very interesting game, and I think we are getting some extra value here, because the MAC is 0-3 in bowl games, and the Mountain West is 2-0, and then you ad din the fact that Wyoming went 2-0 vs. the MAC, and beat Northern Illinois on the road 50-43, while Kent State lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship.  A closer look reveals that Wyoming forced 3 turnovers against Northern Illinois and gave up well over 6 ypc.  Kent State, which is known for their up tempo offense was facing Northern Illinois for the second time this season, which makes it much easier to play against if you’ve seen it before, and Kent State actually did a better job running and stopping the run against Northern Illinois, which is actually shocking for a Wyoming team known for their defense.

Wyoming’s defense ranked 32nd in ypp, but they faced an average opponent ypp offense ranking 84th.  There are holes in this defense that haven’t been there in the past.  They actually ranked 70th in epa run defense, 85th in ypc defense, and that’s the key for Kent State’s fast paced offense as they run the ball 58% of the time, but they are also an offense that can beat you with the pass with Dustin Crum under center.  This is the best offense that Wyoming has faced all year.  All the other offenses they faced were not in the top 50 in rushing and passing, and Wyoming went 1-3 this season against top 50 success rate offenses, and Kent State ranks 3rd in success rate offense.  Their lone win was vs. Northern Illinois, but again they forced 3 INT’s, and I don’t see that as something Crum will commit here.

Kent State beat a Mountain West opponent 2 years ago that was no better than this Wyoming team as they won 51-41 against Utah State.  I really like what Sean Lewis is building here, and I think the world of Wyoming’s HC, but Wyoming has some real head scratchers this season.  Not only did they play a far weaker non-conference schedule with Uconn, and 2 MAC teams while Kent State played 3 power 5 opponents including Iowa and Texas A&M on the road, but Wyoming had some real clunkers getting blown out at home against Hawaii, barely getting by Uconn by 2 points, losing to horrible teams like New Mexico and San Jose State, yet people are running to the window to bet Wyoming here, and I just don’t see how you can play Wyoming given those facts.  I get it Kent State’s defense is awful, but Wyoming really doesn’t have a top defense to slow them down, and it’s the first time all year they are going to play a team that plays this fast.

My biggest reason for taking Kent State however is their ability to win the TO battle.  They rank top 25 in fewest possessions ending in a TO on offense, Wyoming is outside the top 100, and their defense ranks top 25 in forcing TO’s per possessions, while Wyoming ranks outside the top 100.  Wyoming +7 TO margin in their wins, -10 in losses, while Kent State is +14 in wins, and -1 in losses.  Kent State should win the TO battle and win this game outright.

Oregon State -7 3.3% play

Utah State overachieved this year and won the Mountain West, but it came against a very short handed San Diego State team, and I feel like we may be getting a short line, because of that.  Oregon State could win their first Bowl Game in more than a decade, and they’ll get a chance to do it on a very big stage.  Jonathan Smith could have gotten the HC job at Washington where he was the OC for the Huskies when they go to the College Football Playoff, but he decided to stay at his alma matter, and this is a massive game on ABC Saturday night in LA.  I think Smith is a better coach than Blake Anderson, who is 1-4 in bowl games.  Oregon State’s biggest weakness was going on the road in PAC 12 play where they went 0-5, but this is a neutral site game here.

Oregon State beat some good teams this year by more than 7 points including Arizona State and Utah.  When they rushed for more than 230 yards they went 6-1, and 5 of those 6 wins came by more than a TD.  Utah State vs. a top 30 rushing offense was shredded going 1-2, giving up 44, 34, and 45 points, 10 rushing TD’s and 1,020 rushing yards in the 3 games.  Their lone win over Air Force was a bit misleading.  Air Force was just 2-4 in the red zone coming away with 17 points, while Utah State was 3-3.  Air Force was also -1 TO margin and stopped on 4th down and still only lost by 4.  It was the difference between Air Force playing for the Conference Championship. Oregon State is one of the best red zone offenses, and expect them to put up plenty of points in this one.

BYU -6.5 1.1% Free Play

I feel like this is a cheap line on BYU here, a team with 2 losses on the season.  It sounds square, but with 10,000+ tickets 67% of the money is on UAB.  This team has one loss against Boise State, a game they were -4 TO margin in, they were + TO margin in 10 of their 12 games.  The other game was on the road for the Big 12 Champion Baylor, a team that had many on their staff that was previously on BYU staff and very familiar with BYU, and HC Sitake.  The line dipping below 7 is largely part of some missing starters, but the losses in my opinion are not significant. BYU has to feel disrespected to play in this bowl game, but I don’t see them not being interested.  They were 6-0 vs. P5 opponents.  BYU has faced two top 30 YPP defenses like UAB, and they went 2-0 with wins of 9 and 10 points against Utah and Arizona State. 

UAB, and Bill Clark have done a phenomenal job since bringing this program back in 2017.  The one thing they have failed to do is win their step-up games.  Their last 5 seasons they have played 5 Power 5 opponents, and have lost by 51, 17, 23, 21, and 29.  Their best offensive player Dewayne McBride is not 100%, and questionable.  I have heard the players and fans are a bit angry the game is 6 hours away in Shreeport, Louisiana.  They wanted the game in Mobile, which was a lot closer for their fans.  Whether that has any impact is unknown, but important to point out the level of excitement as some fans are staying behind to watch the basketball game against West Virginia at home.

I have to address the weather, because it’s going to be a factor here with rain expected, but I think that favors a mature BYU team more than it does UAB.

utep +12.5 2.2% play / Utep +375 0.5% 

Western Kentucky +135 3% Money Line Play

First of all the spread rarely matters in bowl games, and with such a high total I really don’t think getting a +3 is of any value so we are going with the money line here.  These two had common opponents in Marshall, while Western Kentucky went on the road as a 1 point favorite, and were +1.26 YPP, and App State hosted as a 7 point home favorite and was -0.42 YPP.  Those lines indicate these two teams are even yet on a neutral field App State is a 3 point favorite. Add in the fact that App State is also without their top WR Corey Sutton, and I think we have some value in the number with the Hilltoppers.

Western Kentucky’s offense is one of the best in the country, and they have a ton to play for.  Their two OC’s are headed out, but HC Tyson Helton said OC Zach Kittley will remain to coach in this game, which tells me everything I need to know, this game matters.  QB Bailey Zappe is going after Joe Burrow’s record, and I would imagine that Western Kentucky wants to win this after the devastating tornadoes that hit their county this past week.  The Basketball team dedicated their most recent win to the victims and you have to think it means something here.

App State to me is not the same App State team as years past and they did not face as tough of a schedule as Western Kentucky who faced two P5 opponents compared to 1 for App State.  Against similar type of teams, App State went 1-3, and their only win was against Marshall by 1 points, a team that Western Kentucky destroyed 53-21.  That 1-3 record came against Lafayette +1 ypp diff vs. opp -0.39, Miami +0.2 vs. 0.35, and Marshall +1.2 vs. -0.26.  Western Kentucky easily better than all 3 of those teams +1.5 ypp vs. -0.39. 

Western Kentucky faced UTSA in their Championship game and got down early, but App State has been a slow starter all year long.  When it was said and done I was happy my play on UTSA held on +3.5, as Western Kentucky nearly over came -3 TO margin and they were +1.1 YPP in the game.  UTSA actually has nearly identical numbers to App State, run first team solid defense, special teams, but they don’t turn the ball over yet they were a 3.5 point dog at home in a Conference Championship game.  I think App State is getting far too much credit for their 6-0 mark in Bowl Games.  There is a major mismatch here, and that’s Western Kentucky’s ability to force turnovers they rank 8th in opponent possessions ending in a TO, and have 19 INT.  I didn’t trust Chase Brice with his #1 WR, I certainly don’t trust him without, and App State ranks 85th in % of offensive possessions ending in a TO.  Lafayette ranked 24th in forcing turnovers and they forced 5 in their two matchups.  Win the TO margin and you win most games. 

The biggest concern I have with Western Kentucky is the weather, which as of right now in Boca Raton shows 10mph winds with 20mph gusts, and some rain, but it’s 25-30% chance, and the wind is not significant.

Toledo -10 3.3% play 

NAVY +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I expect a tight game on a neutral field here.  The numbers favor Army, but Navy has faced the tougher schedule with Notre Dame and Cinci on their schedule and their opponent YPP differential are far different.  Navy has faced an average opponent YPP diff of +0.65 cmopared to Army -0.2.  The YPP differential, and opponent YPP differential leads me to believe that Army is the side, but you have to understand these two teams know each other, and anything over a TD I think is gold in this game.  This most resembles the 2018 game where Army was 7 point favorite, and pushed with a 17-10 win, but that was because they were +4 TO margin.

Army +11 TO margin in their wins and -4 in their losses.  Navy has a total of 8 to's on the season and rank 5th in posessions ending in a TO, Army ranks 10th.  I actually think Navy has the better run defense they rank 52nd in epa run defense comapred to Army who is 87th.  It doesn't look or seem like Navy is any better than last year, and last year was a complete disaster for Navy, but Army is slightly worse, and Navy has gotten a lot better.  Their average offensive and defensive standard line yards, power success, and stuff rate is 48th, Army's is 23.16.  Last year, when they were also +7.5 a true road game mind you.  They averaged 75th, while Army averaged 31st.  In 2018 when Navy was 7 point dog on a neutral they averaged 80th, while Army averaged 20th. 

I think this match-up is going to be a lot closer, and  Navy has been a pesky team this year.  They have given some teams that are better than Army fits.  They gave SMU issues, Houston issues, Cincinnati issues all 3 games decided by single digits.  They won at home against UCF, lost by only 3 to East Carolina and at won at Tulsa who statistically are better than Army.  Navy'd DC, Brian Newberry has only given up 2 TD's in 2 games vs. Army so expect Navy to have an opportunity to win the game.

Iowa +11 3.3% play 

Pitt -3 2.2% play 

Under 53 5.5% MAX POD

Alabama U49.5 2.2% play 

App St -130 2.5%

SD St -6 1.1% 

Oregon +3 3.3% play 

UTSA +3.5 3.3% PLAY 

Cal +7 3% play 

Oklahoma +4.5 3.3% play 

Kentucky+3 1% free Play 

Syracuse +13 2.2% play 

South Carolina +12.5 3.3% play 

Wisconsin -7 2.2% play 

Tulsa +6.5 5.5% MAX POD / Tulsa +205 1% bonus

I love this game not only is the situation in our favor, but so are the numbers and the match ups.  Situationally, SMU comes off a loss to Cinci and they no longer have a shot at the conference championship, and their head coach is likely headed to TCU.  Phillip Montgomery on the other side is playing for bowl eligibility he just got a 2 year extension, which shows the confidence of the Tulsa program in Montgomery despite a 5-6 record.  That’s great news, because motivation for a bowl game with extra practices is clearly there to help build this program.  A closer look reveals Tulsa was right in their games against three Top 10 teams on the road. 

At Ohio State – they lost 41-20, but this was a 27-20 game with 3 minutes to play in the 4th quarter before Ohio State tacked on two late TD’s including an INT returned for a TD.

At Oklahoma State – they led 14-7 heading into the 4th quarter and lose 23-28.

At Cincinnati – they trailed 28-20 with the ball on the goal line two separate occasions where Cincinnati held them.  Tulsa actually held a 297 to 116 yard edge in the running game, and that brings me to the match up.

SMU has a very good run defense due to the size of their defensive line.  However, when going up against Cincinnati they no longer had that advantage as Cincinnati’s offensive line is massive averaging 313lbs, and the result was SMU giving up 250 rushing yards.  Tulsa also has a massive offensive line averaging 320lbs.  They have a top 50 rushing attack, and should be able to run the ball here, but more importantly I think they’ll be able to pass the ball.  SMU ranks 112th in QB rating defense, and 121st in epa pass defense.  When Tulsa has faced a bad pass defenses that rank outside the top 50 they actually average 38.4 points per game which is 2 TD more, and they are 5-1 with their lone loss being 17-20 against Navy.  Navy is typically the outlier in these situations, because of the unique offense they run, and their ability to limit the number of possessions.  The biggest issue for Tulsa’s offense this year has been the TO’s they rank 126th in percentage of their posessions ending in a TO, but when facing a non-top 80 TO defense (SMU is 112th).  They have only 3 TO’s in 4 games.

SMU’s offense is top 30 unit, but they rely more on their passing game, and Tulsa’s defensive strength is vs. the pass.  They rank 39th in epa pass defense.  SMU’s passing offense has only faced 3 top 50 pass defenses all season.  They got beat badly against Cincinnati, lost to Houston, and beat UCF.  At the end of the day this line should be more like 2.5 to 3.5.  Tulsa +0.5 ypp, and SMU +0.5 YPP differential and Tulsa clearly has done it against tougher competition with Oklahoma State, and Ohio State in their non-conference schedule compared to TCU for SMU.  The last 5 meetings have been decided by less than a TD with Tulsa winning 5.

Alabama 2% 

Troy +6.5 3.3%play / Troy +210 1% play

Troy fired their head coach, and it’s a step up game for the players to get to a bowl game and a 6th win.  The DC Brandon Hall takes over, and that’s the strength of this Troy team.  They rank 22nd in ypp, and they are 14th against the run.  Georgia State runs the ball 63% of the time they rank 31st running the ball, but they faced top 50 rushing offenses three times this season and put up 10, 16, and 17 points.  If Troy can stop the run on first down, and bring up obvious passing situations it will be a long day for Georgia State as Troy ranks 2nd in sack %, they are 38th opposing offense TO%.

Troy’s Gunnar Watson threw for over 400 yards in the 34-36 loss in this game last year, and Georgia State’s pass defense is worse.  They rank 99th in epa pass defense, so I believe Troy can have enough success in that category.  Watson missed time this year, but they are 3-3 since he came back, and the 3 losses were against the top 3 teams in the Sun Belt, Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, and App State.   Georgia is wildly inconsistent and playing their 6th game in 6 weeks.  They have been under dogs in all 8 meetings against Troy, but here they are a favorite of nearly a TD.

Miami Ohio pk 3.3% play 

Ohio State -7 2.2% play

I’m a bit surprised this number is not over 10.  The numbers say to play Michigan, but every time they step up in competition like this they get beat badly.  I don’t think the outstanding ends from Michigan will be able to get pressure on CJ Stroud who has been getting the ball out of his hands to the best trio of WR’s in the country, and every time this Michigan secondary goes up against more athletic receivers, they are not able to hold up.  Michigan’s numbers under Harbough have largely been a bit misleading as he likes to run it up against the weaker teams on the schedule.  Still it appears Ohio State has a massive advantage with a +3.1 ypp differential compared to Michigan’s +1.7 differential.  Ohio State has been dominant vs. the run, and unless Michigan comes out throwing on first down to surprise, he Buckeyes I think it could be a long day for the Wolverines at home.  I believe the under is the way to go here with a total of 64.5 is a lot of points when you consider Harbough got back to the old power running days.  They rank 104th in seconds per play, and I don’t think they have any wishes to get into a track meet.  Their best bet to win this game is to create a slug fest. We have two teams that rank top 25 in 20+ plays allowed and at the end of the day these are still two very good defenses. 

Washington +1 1.1% Free play 

North Carolina +200 2% play 

Iowa +1 3.3% play 

Ole Miss +115 3% play 

Oregon +3.5 -115 4% play 

Everytime this jumpt to 3.5 it gets back down to +3, and is currently at +3 +100 or -105 so you shoudl be able to get this number. 

Everyone knows I'm holidng an Oregon +2500 National Title ticket with some other long shots, but I do truly believe this team steps up when it matters and plays to the level of their competition.  Utah is getting tremendous respect in this line, and I understand they have great home field advantage, BUT.. This is not the same Utah team as year's past.  Their defense is young, and has given up 200+ yards rushing three times this season and against Arizona State they trailed 21-7 at half.  Arizona State was having over 50% success running the ball in the first half, and I'm not sure what happened, but if anything that raises flags for Utah's defense for me.  Utah has some key injuries here with their All Conference CB out, their achnor on DL Moala out for season, and his replacement Faybian Marks got injured against Arizona.  Oregon had success in the 2019 Pac 12 Chanmpionship running the ball against a much more talented defense rushign for 241 yards and really controlling the game.  Yes, Justin Herbert was the QB, and everyone is obsesses with him, but he really did not have a great game, nor did Cristobal ever let him loose.  Oregon won that game for their play in the trenches, and the #'s say to me that they are better than that year while Utah is worse.  Utah is starting 5 freshman players on their defense!!!

Utah's offense has been very impressive since Rising took over and I'm not going to discount that.  Oregon has been bend but don't break defense, and really haven't had a game that has been dominant, but that could change here today.  I think Utah has some injury issues on the OL, and look to be without their starting C paul Maile.  Whittingham is pretty quiet on injuries, but they also have their hammer Tavion Thomas who is banged up as well.  Thomas will play, but he had some fumble issues earlier in the season that I wonder if they creep back up.  Whenever you are playing less than 100% that seems to be where your mind is on something other than protecting the ball.  Oregon's defense ranks 12th in defensive posessions ending in a TO. 

2019, Oregon also had a chance to get into College Football Playoff traveling to Tempe to face Arizona State, much like this trip, and they lost 28-31.  Why is this different?  Oregon does not have the pressure of letting a generational QB throw the ball they can be themselves, which is running the ball.  Herbert, the wonder kid threw 2 INT in that game that cost them the game.  I think this game is going to be close.  I think the line is off as Oregon has very similar #'s, but they are the better running team and the better run defense, they ahve a significantly better special teams, and their defense is more experienced and forces more TOs.  The only reason we are seeing 3, 3.5 is Anthony Brown.  I believe Brown is going to play with a chip on his shoulder, he's going to be a runner, and he'll make/take the easy throws to a taltened WR group.  

Virginia Tech +7.5 3.3% play

We have an interesting dichotomy on our hands in this match up.  On one hand we have Virginia Tech who fired their HC Justine Fuente this week, and the other we have Manny Diaz likely out after this season or next week as Miami fired their AD.  We have seen it time and time again with teams stepping up in their first game after a HC was not there.  We saw it last week with Washington, the week before with Baylor, Washington St and USC earlier this season.  On top of that Miami off a gut punching loss to their in state rival Florida State.  They gave up a 4th and 14, they had 14 penalties they are just a bad team, and it is on the HC Manny Diaz

The match up is also very favorable as Miami is a pass 1st team, and the strength of Virginia Tech’s defense is the pass defense where they rank top 30 in the nation.  Virginia Tech’s offensive strength/identity is in the running game, and Miami’s defensive weakness is against the run.  Miami ranks 83rd in EPA run defense, 96th in 20+ yard runs allowed.  Virginia Tech has large advantage in special teams ranking 15th to Miami’s 86th, and they have edge in third down efficiency as well as TO %’s.  Virginia Tech should win the TO battle when we look at the fact that Miami ranks 111th in offensive TO %, and 119th in forcing TO’s, while Virginia Tech ranks 15th in offensive possessions ending in TO’s.  To make matters worse Miami also has a huge penalty issues while Virginia Tech is relatively clean on penalties.  Miami’s pass defense is also not great, and because of injuries they have 3 freshman starting along with a sophomore so Virginia Tech may be able to have some balance here.

I think we are getting some value as that road trip to Boston College is factored into the spread here, but Virginia Tech lost their starting QB Braxton Burmeister on the first or second series and there was a large drop off.  Also worth noting is Virginia Tech is still alive in the Coastal, and they led 24-13 late in the 3Q in last year’s matchup before losing 25-24.

Kansas State pk 2.2% play 

UCLA -3 3.3% PLAY

USC in their 4 wins havea llowed 3.11 ypc, and in their 5 losses 5.5 ypc, but bad news as UCLA comes in with the 25th ranked ypc attack, and 13th epa run offense.  USC overall ranks 98th in stopping the run, and it's not like they can stop the pass either ranking 119th in epa pass defense.  UCLA actually has balance on offense ranking 39th in epa pass offense.

Advantages for USC in this game is the fact taht they are a throw first team, and UCLA has really struggled vs. the pass ranking 94th in epa pass defense, but the reality is USC is not much better than UCLA at passing the ball, and their pass defense is worse.  USC will also be without their best WR London, and QB Slovis, as they look to start a true freshman.

USC also has all the interim coaches, which after a bye is not ideal in my opinion.  Maybe they are trying out for new jobs, but I still think the players probably aren't going to be showing max effort here where UCLA felt robbed in last year's game losing with seconds to go.  UCLA's 4 losses this year have been against the top 3 teams in the PAC 12, and top team in the Mountain West.  All 4 teams have top 40 defenses in Fresno, Utah, Arizona St, and Oregon.  USC ranks 103rd in YPP, and that has come against a realtively weak schedule of offenses ranked 70th in ypp offense.  The last two years USC has been top 70 vs. an average 58th ranked ypp off.  

Navy +4 5.5% NCAAF POD

25 seniors will be honored here on Senior Day, the last home game, and Navy 17-1 SU run on SR. Day, with the lone loss coming last year in front of zero fans.  East Carolina is in a huge sandwich spot, not only do they have to travel the second week in a row they do it after a huge upset over Memphis, which they became bowl eligible with, and they have Cincinnati at home next week.  East Carolina was also out played last week as they were -1.5 ypp in the game, but were lucky to recover both fumbles in the game and held on in OT as Memphis went for 2.

On top of the situation I also like the match up.  Navy sports a top 50 run defense ranking 38th in epa run defense.  East Carolina vs. top 50 defenses are 0-3 and have averaged 10.5 ppg less than their season average.  East Carolina’s defensive weakness is also bad against the run ranking 89th, where their pass defense is their strength ranking 21st in epa pass defense, which likely won’t play a factor here with Navy running the ball 84% of plays.  Navy was bad last year, and they were able to win at East Carolina and ran for nearly 300 yards in the game.  East Carolina also heavily relies on forcing turnovers to get wins.  13 forced turnovers in their 6 wins, and Navy ranks 5th in % of possessions ending in a TO.  +4 is a lot of points in a game with limited possessions especially when you look at East Carolina who struggles in the red zone 51% TD%, 42% on the road that 4 points becomes a lot more valuable.  Navy for as bad as their defense seems they have faced a very tough schedule on average ranking of 42nd in YPP.  They rank 11th in the country with just 33 20+ plays allowed.

Lastly, Navy has been a pesky team this year.  They have given some teams that are better than East Carolina fits.  They gave SMU issues, Houston issues, Cincinnati issues all 3 games decided by single digits.  They won at home against UCF, and at Tulsa who statistically are better teams than East Carolina.  East Carolina is -0.2 YPP vs. avg opp -0.05, while UCF +0.3 vs. -0.02, Tulsa +0.1 vs. +0.04.  I think Navy gets this game for their seniors.

Navy +4 5.5% NCAAF POD

25 seniors will be honored here on Senior Day, the last home game, and Navy 17-1 SU run on SR. Day, with the lone loss coming last year in front of zero fans.  East Carolina is in a huge sandwich spot, not only do they have to travel the second week in a row they do it after a huge upset over Memphis, which they became bowl eligible with, and they have Cincinnati at home next week.  East Carolina was also out played last week as they were -1.5 ypp in the game, but were lucky to recover both fumbles in the game and held on in OT as Memphis went for 2.

On top of the situation I also like the match up.  Navy sports a top 50 run defense ranking 38th in epa run defense.  East Carolina vs. top 50 defenses are 0-3 and have averaged 10.5 ppg less than their season average.  East Carolina’s defensive weakness is also bad against the run ranking 89th, where their pass defense is their strength ranking 21st in epa pass defense, which likely won’t play a factor here with Navy running the ball 84% of plays.  Navy was bad last year, and they were able to win at East Carolina and ran for nearly 300 yards in the game.  East Carolina also heavily relies on forcing turnovers to get wins.  13 forced turnovers in their 6 wins, and Navy ranks 5th in % of possessions ending in a TO.  +4 is a lot of points in a game with limited possessions especially when you look at East Carolina who struggles in the red zone 51% TD%, 42% on the road that 4 points becomes a lot more valuable.  Navy for as bad as their defense seems they have faced a very tough schedule on average ranking of 42nd in YPP.  They rank 11th in the country with just 33 20+ plays allowed.

Lastly, Navy has been a pesky team this year.  They have given some teams that are better than East Carolina fits.  They gave SMU issues, Houston issues, Cincinnati issues all 3 games decided by single digits.  They won at home against UCF, and at Tulsa who statistically are better teams than East Carolina.  East Carolina is -0.2 YPP vs. avg opp -0.05, while UCF +0.3 vs. -0.02, Tulsa +0.1 vs. +0.04.  I think Navy gets this game for their seniors.

Iowa State +3.5 2.2% play / Iowa St +155 1% ML Bonus

Iowa State actually has better numbers against a tougher schedule than Oklahoma does, yet this line is stating that Oklahoma is a -1.5 favorite on a neutral.  I get it Iowa State has 4 losses, and some of them have been very freaky losses, games they would not have lost in the past but have this year, because they were no longer playing in the under dog role and in a way had a target on their back, but they are back to the role we love them in, and that is an under dog.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS the last 6 meetings, and Oklahoma just came off a loss to Baylor, which essentially was a dream crushing loss as they are likely now out of the CFB Playoff picture.  This just is not the same Oklahoma offense as years past.

First of all they rank 5th in YPP so you may argue that, but the fact of the matter is they faced an average opponent ypp defense ranked 87th.  Last year they faced an average opponent defense ranked 60th, and they were not starting a true freshman QB, and the previous two years had experienced QB’s.  The last 3 match ups between these two teams have been very close.  Oklahoma won by 6 last year at Iowa State, lost by 7 at home, and won by 1 in 2018.  When we look back at those 3 Oklahoma teams they on average had +2.13 YPP edge against an average opponents YPP differential of -0.17.  This year they are only +0.7 YPP differential, against a average opponent that is -0.11.  Iowa State in those 3 years average +1.2 YPP differential vs. opponent +0.08, and they were able to hang in games against Oklahoma.  Despite being 6-4 this Iowa State team is better than the past 3 versions as they are +1.7 ypp differential vs an average opponent YPP diff of 0.  They actually are better in every category except special teams than Baylor.

Iowa State’s defense may not be as good particularly in the secondary, but Oklahoma is not the type of team right now that can beat you with their passing offense.  They really lack any kind of explosive WR weapon, their WR drop far too many passes, and Iowa State is stout against the run ranking better than Baylor.  This game is on the road, but this veteran group of Iowa State players have won here before, and have plenty of confidence.  This is essentially their Super Bowl now that they can no longer get into the Big 12 Championship.

Florida State +111 2% Play

This should be a flat spot for FSU after upsetting Miami, and with Florida on deck, but FSU has to be playing with a ton of confidence and at 4-6 really want to get to a bowl game.  This is a winnable game as FSU has the better #’s against tougher competition +0.4 YPP vs. +0.05 compared to BC who is -0.4 vs. -0.33.  I think we are maybe giving Phil Jurkovec too much credit.  He has only 33 throws in two games and BC got a bit lucky as Virginia Tech lost their QB early in the game, and Georgia Tech also played without their starter.  Boston College has not been good in run defense ranking 105th in ypc defense, and the two running QB’s they faced they gave up tons of yards.  Jordan Travis should be able to move the ball on this defense.  From what I saw of Phil Jurkovec he did not have much zip on his throws so I wonder if he’s 100%.  FSU actually better statistically than Virginia Tech and with a healthy starting QB could take advantage.  On the flip side Boston College looks really banged up with several guys missing from the secondary, and 3 starters that are questionable this week.

Wake Forest +4.5 1.1% Free

Air Force / Nevada Over 52.5 3.3% play

I love this over play with this match up, which I would call a perfect storm.  The only thing that comes close in terms of Air Force playing a pass first team that plays fast, that is also not good at defending the run was Utha State.  Utah State is actually better at defending the run, but that was a 45-49 game, and Utah State at least likes to run the ball a bit.  Jay NOrvell admitted that they can't run the ball so why bother.  Carson Strong going to the NFL next year is one of the best QB's the nation, and it's not often that Air Force faces a pass first team nevermind a team that passes 68% of the time.

When we look at service academies in general they play opponents that are run first teams, and genearlly speaking are good vs. the run.  Here we have a team that passes first, plays fast, and is terrilbe vs. the run.  Service academies are typically better at defending the run than the pass.  They are disciplined in their gaps, and they see run first offense all the time in practice.  Whenever we see these match ups where we have a pass first team, and a team that's bad at defending the run it typically leads to high scoring games.  Air Force in 2019 faced Hawaii and Colorado State who fell in that bucket, and they won both games 56-26 and 38-21.  IN 2018 they played Nevada and won 28-25, but the diffence there was Nevad actually only passed 55% the time, and they ranked 30th in ypc run defense.  I see Air Force being more successfull here tonight as Nevada also ranking 97th in success rate defense.

When we look at othe rservice acdemises this year.  Navy gave up 31 and 35 points to SMU and Memphis who pass the ball just over 55% of the time.  Army played Western Kentucky, a similar match up where we have pass first offense going up against triple option, and the result was a 38-35 final, another high score.  Last year Army played La Monroe, who passed 63% of time and they won 37-7.  La Monroe was outside the top 100 in passing offense so not surprised by 7 points.  In 2019, Army played Hawaii and San Jose State, 31-52, and 29-34 more high scores.  IN 2018 they faced those teams again 52-3, and 28-21.  I would argue that this match up is the most lopsided of the bunch, and the only thing I could see is that Air Force is just really good tonight at stopping Carson Strong and the passing attack, but they play so fast 28th in seconds per play, that it will open the door to Air Force scoring quickly, and getting a large lead, which could mean some garbage TD's late by Nevada.  Either way I see points being scored here. 

Memphis +9.5 3.3% play / Memphis +290 0.3% bonus

Houston has literally nothing left to play for here.  They have Uconn on deck, and are already in the AAC Championshpi game.  Houston is a surprising 9-1, we faded them all the way back in week 1 against TExas Tech and it was their lone loss.  Since then they have won games, but a closer look reveals this team could easily have 3.  Against East Carolina they managed only 256 yards in OT loss and were -1.07 ypp.  Memphis just lost last week to East Carolina at home and were +1.5 ypp in thier OT loss.  They could have won the game, and went for 2 in OT, due to kicker issues, and that's why I am playing the ML.  I doubt Memphis is going to attempt many Field Goals, and the variance would be that they win this game by converted 4th downs and red zone opportunities into 7 points.  Memphis needs this game far more at 5-5 to get to 6 wins and go bowling.

It's not like Memphis hasn't been in every single game this year.  The only game they were blown out was UCF, and that's because they were missing QB Seth Henigan.  This team beat a strong MIss STate team at home, they only lost by 3 to UTSA, and have been in every other game.  Their core #'s of +0.9 YPP vs. an average opponents -0.366 differential are better than Houston's +0.9 vs. -0.82.  Houston's offense may struggle here against a strong Memphis run defense.  Houston ranks 54th in ypp, but vs. an average opponent ypp defense ranking 96.77.  Their defense although has been dominant on the stat sheet has shown vulnerabilities at times.  The only two offenses they faced on the season in the top 70 were Texas Tech, and SMU who they allowed 38 and 37 points.  Both of those teams are pass first teams like Memphis, and Houston was recently seen giving up 42 points to South Florida.  

TCU +12 2.2% PLAY

I gave out TCU spread and ML last week as they upset Baylor, and I think TCU stays in this game again.  We have a nice little story brewing here with Jerry Kill taking over as HC for Gary Patterson, and you bet the team is going to play for Kill.  Kill actually coached at the High School when Gundy played, and Gundy said Kill taught him Biology. 

Bottom line is TCU still has a top tier offense as we saw last week.  They are balance they can run, pass, and are efficient at doing so maybe more efficient than any opponent that Oklahoma St has faced.  Oklahoma State’s defense has been top tier, but against Kansas State, Texas, Baylor, and Iowa State who all have similar offenses to TCU, they gave up some points.  Now they went 3-1 in those games, but should have lost to Texas.  Oklahoma State’s offense is not great they rank 85th in ypp, and they rely heavily on the run 61% runs, while TCU has been awful against the run, they’re facing a team that ranks 80th in epa rush offense.  There is really nothing that should scare you about Oklahoma State’s offense, and both teams run, and don’t run their offense at an incredibly fast pace, which means winning by 2 TD’s is going to be tough in my opinion.

Arkansas -2.5 3.3% play

LSU just played the game of their lives in their Super Bowl against Alabama last week.  LSU coaching staff is gone after the season, the team has depth issues, Orgeron is making weird comments, and now making a QB controversy that makes no sense.  Max Johnson is hardly the problem here with 22 passing TD’s 6 INT, but Orgeron said he’s going let Garret Nussmeier playing time, because Garret wants to play. I think something has to do with Garret’s Daddy, Dallas Cowboys QB coach calling to say he wants his son playing.  What the hell is going on?

This is a trophy game for the Golden Boot, and Arkansas wants it back.  Arkansas has a balanced offense they can run, they can throw, and their defense is better than LSU’s.  LSU ranks 89th in epa run and 92nd epa pass.  LSU struggled against a similar Ole Miss Defense that likes to drop guys back in coverage, and I have a feeling Garret Nussmeier will have a costly turnover in this game.  This was a 3 point game last year, but Arkansas is vastly improved while LSU is far worse than a year ago.

Washington +6 2.2%

All year we have seen players and teams step up when there is turmoil on the coaching staff.  Jimmy Lake suspended for striking a player, and Washington also fired their OC.  We saw Washington St step up without their coaches, we saw TCU do it last week, and we saw USC do it as well.  I think this is an excellent spot for Washington who has really nothing to lose in this game.  Washington has bene in every game this year as 4 of their 5 losses have been by single digits.  They are home here they play excellent red zone defense, and have a huge advantage in TO Margin, and it’s going to be a weather game.

Expect 48 degrees and rain here, and Arizona State coming in where they just have not played well on the road.  They are 1-2 this year, but 7-10 under Herman Edwards, and if you take out last year when they were 2-1m(no fans) they are actually 5-9!  To me this is still a very soft team, and that does not bode well when you go on the road in bad weather conditions playing an angry team.  When I say Arizona State is soft they had a Sr. CB come out to the media asking the media to be nice after what the media wrote in their loss to Washington State.  Like are you freaking kidding me? 

Washington has edges on special teams and TO percentage per possession, and Arizona State’s home/away splits are not good.  I think we are getting extra points with Washington given the situation, and I think Washington comes out with an outright upset.

Ole Miss +3 -120  3.5%

Ole miss comes into the game with 2 losses just the same as A&M, but they are home dogs in a night game against #11 team.  I like Ole Miss here in this spot.  This is just A&M’s second true road game, the first one was against a hopeless Missouri team.  They played two neutral sight games against Colorado, and the offense really struggled, and Arkansas losing 20-10.  A&M has injury issues in their secondary that will probably finally hurt them here.  They have freshman and sophomore’s playing and it’s in reality their first road game.  They also have two freshman starting on the OL, which is not a great recipe when you face an aggressive defense like Ole Miss that ranks 5th in sack %, and rank 20th in defensive TO %.  Texas A&M’s offense ranks 75th in offensive drives ending in a TO.  Ole Miss also very good on third down defense and should be able to get the Aggies off the field.  Aggies scored points of late, but 6 of their last 15 TD’s have come on defense, or special teams or short fields.  Ole Miss 8th in TO %.  I just don’t see the Aggies getting anything easy here in a night game with a Heisman Trophy candidate in Matt Corral.  This could be his last chance to have the Heisman moment.

To beat A&M’s defense you must have a balanced offense.  Ole Miss clearly has that with Matt Corral at the helm.  He is a mobile QB, but he can throw too and the offense has a legit rushing offense that ranks 8th in epa.  Arkansas, a similar team overall to Ole Miss had a balanced rushing and passing attack and they really controlled that game on a neutral site against the Aggies beating them 20-10.