Louisville -3 -120 buy 1/2 4.5* NCAAF POD
I like Louisville in this spot tonight as they were clearly looking ahead to this game on their calendar and it showed when they struggled against South Florida. The biggest difference in this game is the QB and Louisville holds a significant advantage there with Munchie Legaux coming off his first road game this year throwing 2 INT's and now he'll play in an even more hostile environment. Legaux has completed just 44% of his throws on the road and 53% overall, while Bridgewater has been elite like with 73% completions and 80% at home which include 7 TD and 0 INT's!

Louisville's run defense has also been better ranked 48th to the Bearcats 67th ypc run defense. Cinci has given up 5.1 ypc on the ground on the road and will have their hands full with 2 capable RB's and a mobile QB in Bridgewater. Louisville now has lost to Cinci 4 years in a row and many of the players know this is the hump they have to get over and I think they will here tonight. Cinci will also be without their leader on defense in Walter Stewart who is their top pass rusher that should go along way as Louisville is 6th in third down conversions . I think they'll be able to convert on this Cinci defense that's having issues stopping the run. Louisville's offense also has been great in the red zone converting 80% of their trips into TD's compared to Cinci's 59% and their offense has struggled in conference games just 5 RZ trips for the Bearcats resulting in 2 TD's. I think Louisville has a significant advantage there as well.

We started to see it last game with Louisville getting a bit more aggressive on defense led by DE Lorenzo Mauldin and I think we see it again under the lights on Friday. It's a big key when Louisville or any defense can concentrate on a one dimensional offense like Cinci. I wouldn't be afraid of Legaux's ability other than the deep threats because he's just not accurate. I expect Louisville to force him into turnovers as this is his biggest game of his career. Meanwhile Bridgewater seems cool as a cucumber and should be able to move this offense. This is the best QB Cinci's defense has faced this year as they've faced 2 FCS foes and a group of over rated teams with the exception of Toledo who upset them last week.

[b]Clemson/Wake Over 58.5 3.3* play[/b]

You just can

Arkansas State +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
This is a huge game for both parties in the Sun Belt race and should hold a playoff type atmosphere.

Washington +7.5 3.3* play
There are two reasons why Washington's offense has struggled in a year that they were supposed to improve. They have had injuries on the offensive line and they have faced 4 top 25 defenses. Well that won't continue when they face Arizona one of the worst defenses in the nation. Mike Stoops left the this defense thin, young, and small and new head coach has them out there for 82 plays per game. It's not a good competition against Washington's offense that won't be pressured as Arizona is 119th in sack % this year.

Expect the old Keith Price back in this game now that he'll have time and expect an absolute monster game from his TE Jenkins who should man handle Arizona's back 8 who have one guy over 215 lbs. I think you should also see another big game out of WR Kasen Williams and RB Bishop Sankey.

Now Arizona can sling it with best of any and are ranked 1st in passing offense in the PAC 12, but that is Washington's strength. They held Matt Barkley to 10-20 167 yards. They return all but one of their key players from a secondary last year that was expected to be the strength of the team and has been as they only allow 172 yards per game. Their new DC Justin Wilcox has been outstanding as a former DB. He's got tow next level players in Safety Justin Glenn who is a sure tackler which will help while defending the spread and CB Desmond Trufant completely took USC's Marqise Lee out of the game as he finished with 2 receptions and 32 yards. Price also came around in that game completing 16 straight passes at one point. This is Washington's game to take.

Toledo +6 4.4* NCAAF Play
Toledo will face a ranked team at the glass bowl and they are 4-1 straight up in their last 5 home games vs a ranked team when they welcome Cincinnati on Saturday night. Toledo's offense is the best offense that Cinci will have faced all year because they can beat them through the air and the ground. They are averagaing 39.7 ppg and their only loss came in OT against Arizona. Toledo has a triple threat in QB Terrance Owens just shy of 300 yards, WR Bernard Reedy 52 rec 666yards, and 5 TD's and RB David Fleullen 792 yards 9 TD's. Cinci has already shown weaknesses on defense. I mean Fordham started the game last week with 22 straight offensive plays and their QB Ryan Higgins finished the game 31-42 262 yards and a TD. That's an FCS foe and now they face one of the best offenses in the country. Even their HC Butch Jones is worried about Toledo saying, "Their collection of skill players may be the best we'll face."

One of the keys to the Bearcats defense is creating pressure and when they do that they are successful, but they go up against an experienced Toledo offensive line that only allows 3.9% sack % and that's for a running QB where you usually see higher number. Toledo's defense has really buckled down in home games allowing just 30% conversions on third down while Cinci has been good too ranked 33rd allowing 35% conversions. They'll be tested by Toledo who is ranked 25th at converting third downs. I think Toledo has the edge because they have more of an ability at home at stopping the run only allowing 3.4 ypc while Cinci has allowed 4.7 on the road.

Cinci is also obviously looking ahead to Lousiville who they have on deck and this is that classic trap game for them. They are well aware of it, but the fact of the matter is they have not faced any real good teams and already struggled against a MAC team this year and at times against FCS foes. I think Toledo takes this game.

[b]Florida -3 4.4* NCAAF Play[/b]

I have to think that emotionally this South Carolina team is just in a tough situation after being so high after beating Georgia at home as home dogs and then coming up short against LSU where the final score was not indicative of how much they were dominated in that game.

Nebraska -6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
I love Nebraska in this spot coming off a bye this team faces Northwestern a team that came into their building last year and won 28-25 when Nebraska was 17.5 point favorites. Now they get to return the favor in NW's home field which won't be much of a home field advantage. This game will be close to 50% Huskers fans because Northwestern just does not sell out and that will make this a neutral site type atmosphere and add in the fact that Nebraska has revenge and is off a bye and I really like the Huskers this weekend.

Nebraska's key here is Taylor Martinez and the running game, but don't sleep on Martinez passing the ball. He had his best game against Northwestern last year 28/37 for 289 yards and 2 TD. The running game is deep for Nebraska with the healthy Rex Burkhead back and the emergence of Ameer Abdullah leading the nations 5th best running team. Nebraska is actually ranked 2nd from a yards per carry perspective. Now Northwestern built this team to stop the run and they are doing it ranked 32nd allowing just 3.6 ypc. However, they have faced nobody that can run the ball so that ranking is a little deceiving. The average rushing offense ypc team they have faced is 86th. When Northwestern sells out to stop the run Martinez has shown the capability to beat you deep and I think they are well on their way to doing that in this game. Martinez has improved as a passer completing 66% of his passes and has 12 TD to just 4 interceptions. It pays that he's had extra reps against Nebraska's first team defense.

With the bye week their was a lot of reps for both the offense and defense against the 1st teams. That will dramatically help them in this game. Nebraska really struggles against mobile QB and that's what Northwestern has in Cain Kolter. Kolter really surprised an unprepared defense last year as Northwestern had three rushing TD's and 207 yards rushing while dominating the time of possession a year ago. I think the extra prep and the awareness of Northwestern's ability to run with the QB will make a huge difference. It also helps because Northwestern has lacked consistency in the passing game as they struggled in back to back games vs. Penn St and Minnesota so this idea that they have an explosive offense is a bit over rated as they haven't cracked 300 yards in the last two games.

Northwestern's defense has played much better than anyone expected, but I'm not shocked they have faced some of the weaker offenses and Penn State showed some vulnerabilities they have. I look for Nebraska's WR Jamal Turner to have a huge game. Nebraska's offense is 15th in converting third downs this year converting 50% of them while Northwestern's defense is ranked 55th, but has faced an average offensive third down team ranked 90th and haven't faced anyone ranked inside the top 50. I normally don't like laying chalk like this but in the case of Nebraska counting on having plenty of fans in attendance I am very confident Nebraska will dominate this game from start to finish.

Michigan St +9.5 3.3* play
In my opinion this game is a bit crazy. It's based on two Michigan blowouts of just bad teams and Michigan State's struggles, but when these two meet it's just a different animal and Michigan State matches up extremely well against Michigan.

First of all Denard Robinson unlike Taylor Martinez has yet to prove he can pass the ball and until he does I"ll continue to fade him and win money when he goes up against top tier defense. Michigan State is still a top tier defense ranked 5th in total defense. Michigan has played two other top 10 defenses and they lost both games. Michigan State is very good against the run ranked 15th in ypc allowed and that will give Michigan all sorts of troubles. On the flip side Michigan has been good against the run, but has struggled against offenses that are more physical. Leveon Bell is as physical as you get from a RB and I see him having success here. The team that has the most rushing yards has won 39 out of the last 42 match ups.

I do expect Michigan State to win the rushing battle. They still have a strength at LB led by Max Bullough and Denicos Allen who took over for Sr. Chris Norman and was all over the field last week against Iowa. I've spoke a lot about each teams rushing game, but Michigan State by far as the more balanced approach and are more likely to beat you through the air and ground. Andrew Maxwell has been victim of the tip pass. I've seen two of his interceptions fall do to the tip pass and he's faced very capable pass defenses and deserves more credit. The guy has faced 4 top 31 pass defenses and he's just now starting to find a go to guy at receiver in Aaron Burbridge who should have another good game. If Michigan State gets their TE Dion Simms back I will also add a play on the money line.

Syracuse -4 2.2* play; Syr +3 U50 -130 4.5* play
Uconn has won all of the last 5 meetings between these two teams but they have been the home team for much of this series lately. The home team is actually 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games and the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings which gives Syracuse an advantage.

Things to know:
Both teams rely on their defense. Both are in the top 20 in ypc run defense and both are in the top 10 in sack %. Uconn likes to run the ball more than pass while Syracuse has been traditionally a pass first offense led by senior Ryan Nassib.

Uconn:
Uconn is off a crushing loss to Temple and once agai the issues was with their defense. QB Chandler Whitmer has been under pressure all year leading to 10 interceptions and tonight will be no different with Syracuse being 10th in sack%, but improving drastically when they are inside the Carrier Dome with a 13.33% sack %. On defense the Huskies have benefited largely on defense from facing teams that just do not have an aerial attack. Syracuse is 16th in yards per game passing and throw the ball 61% of the time. While Uconn has been good against the pass they have done it against an average passing offense ranked 79th. They did go on the road to play Western Michigan who is 26th in passing play % and they lost 24-30. Both teams should fall to the passing game because both teams are so good at stopping the run and that advantage immediately turns to Syracuse.

Syracuse:
At home their offense has been dangerous this year, but facing Uconn should provide a stiff task. Uconn is 8th in sack %, but then again Syracuse has protected Nassib at home allowing him to get sacked just 3.03% of his drop backs. He also has two of the most prolific receivers in Syracuse history in Marcus Sales and Alec Lemon. Lemon had 9 receptions and 157 yards in last years loss. The thing that has cost Syracuse a .500 or winning record has been mistakes and turnovers as well as an inconsistent running game. However, being back at home with more experience I

Oregon -7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
Todd Graham in Tempe has done a great job so far with his only loss coming on the road at Missouri, but now he

LA Lafayette -3.5 3.3* play
The home dog is not always the answer and tonight is one of those times it

Miss State -3 2.2* bonus
For me each teams strength is a push. Tennessee's passing game vs. the NFL talent that Miss State has in their secondary with Johnathan Banks and Darius Slay. Both offensive lines don't allow sacks and both teams defensive lines don't get sacks. However, Tenn is off a bye, but Derek Dooley has proven to me that he's just not a good coach and he's actually 2-10 in the last three years in road games in the SEC. Miss State is a very capable team especially at home and Tennessee has Alabama looming the following week so you can bet at least some of the players have been looking ahead.

In a game where it is strength for strength I look at some important factors and that's turnovers. This game will be decided on turnovers and MIss State has 9 interceptions already in 5 games and Bray already has thrown 6 and as a team the Volunteers have thrown 7. Miss State QB's have thrown just 2 interceptions. Miss State is 17th in opposing QB ratings allowing 106 and they have been better at home allowing 88 rating. Okay they haven't played anyone, but dating back to last year this group did the same they were ranked 27th overall and held opposing QB's to a 93.4 rating which was among the best in the nation. Tennessee also has the tendency to give up big plays and Miss State has a big plya weapon in Sr WR Chad Bumphis who has 6 TD on 21 receptions for 375 yards. The Volunteers CB's have proved nothing other than they are poor tacklers.

Some other intangibles other than the fact that Dooley is just not a very good coach is that Tennessee's kicker has missed extra points in 4 of 5 games this year, they are 73rd in penalties and are 121st in ypc allowed allowing 6.1 ypc. Look for Miss State to win a close defensive slug fest 24-17.

LSU -2.5 3.3* PLAY SEC Shocker
In sports betting we constantly talk about let downs and hang overs well South Carolina defeated Georgia last week and arguably have a more important game against Florida next week because it's a division game. Now they are clearly not looking a head but this is a big hang over spot for the Gamecocks after playing a great game against Georgia.

Georgia had the reputation of being a top defense as they were last year, but I claim frauds! Georgia just gave up 79 points in two weeks so looking at South Carolina putting up 35 now does not look overly impressive. LSU's defense is a new level. LSU is ranked 2nd in the nation allowing just 207 yards/game behind only Alabama. South Carolina played two subpar defenses on the road in Vanderbilt and Kentucky and now they will go into a very challenging environment against a very angry team.

Bottom line both teams can run the game and prefer to run the ball. In fact they are both in the top 10 in rushing play percentage and South Carolina runs the ball more on the road 70% of the time in fact while LSU runs the ball 65% at home. Who can run the ball better is going to play a huge factor in this game and right now there is no question that is LSU. For one LSU has 3 guys with 40+ carries and are averaging over 5 yards per carry. They also have Spencer Ware who is just under 5 yards per carry. This is the deepest group of running backs in the county. Yeah they do not have Marcus Lattimore, but that's a one man show despite Connor Shaw being able to run quite a bit. Shaw will not be able to run though against LSU's front 7 and if he does so it will be at a huge risk of injury. LSU is 25th overall with 5.9 ypc while South Carolina is 56th with a 4.4 ypc. They only average 4.3 ypc on the road and the two teams they faced were ranked 92nd, and 64th in run defense and now they face LSU who is 4th allowing just 2.3 ypc and 1.7 ypc at home.

Ok so what happens when the running games fail because that is likely to happen in this game featuring two of the best defensive lines with NFL talent for both teams. It's going to be the team that's able to protect their QB better. Both teams are in the top 10 in sack % on defense to nobody's surprise while both teams are in the bottom half LSU 100TH, and South Carolina 109th in protecting their QB's. However the difference is the home team. LSU is only allowing 6.85% of their drop backs to result in a sack at home while South Carolina is 15%. No wonder South Carolina runs the ball 70% of the time on the road. LSU's Sam Montgomery could have a field day if he's allowed to. South Carolina was sacked 15% of their drop backs against Vanderbilt and Kentucky? Don't forget South Carolina has struggled converting third downs on the road converting 38% and that was against 3rd down defenses ranked 116 and 63rd. LSU is ranked 11th holding opponents to 29.58% conversions, 26.67% at home.

TCU +7.5 -120 BUY 1/2 4* Play
Baylor has an even bigger Texas rivalry up next when they go on the road to face Texas, but first they play against TCU who is trying to revenge their loss last year to open up the 2011 season when they lost 50-48. TCU is actually limping into this game without their QB Casey Pachall and some RB depth has had an impact, but I think we get tons of value because of that and I"m not going to over react to TCU's loss at Iowa State. TCU turned the ball over 5 times last week and tha'ts not going to happen again this week.

Baylor is dead last in pass defense and really has no semblance of a pass rush and their run defense is allowing 5.1 yards per carry. red shirt freshmen QB Trevone Boykin will have a better time going up against this defense than he did going up against Iowa State and the two best LB's in the Big 12 that they possess. Boykin will make lots of plays with his feet in this game and I really think it's something that Baylor is not prepared for despite having a bye. TCU also has excellent receivers that are not far off from the West Virginia group that torched Baylor's secondary. TCU has a good mix of speed and strength with JOsh Boyce, Brandon Carter and Skye Dawson who is a real threat to take it all the way.

For as good as Baylor's offense has been people do not realize they have been mediocre on third down converting just 25% at home 5-20 against SMU and Sam Houston State. Baylor is also dead last 124th in third down defense while TCU is #1 in the nation in third down defense 21.43% conversions allowed 18% on the road. Now flip that over and TCU has struggled on third down, but facing Baylor's defense will definitely give TCU a bump in confidence they'll need for the rest of the Big 12 season.

San Jose State -2.5 -120 3.5* play
Suddenly Utah State's wins don't look as impressive and their offense is no longer clicking. They open up in the WAC against San Jose State, a team flying way way under the radar and is off a bye.

Utah State is #1 in total defense in the WAC, but San Jose is #2 and San Jose is #1 in offense and they have played some good teams. Recently they dominated Navy's triple option defense holding them to 1.8 ypc and won 12-0 and this is a team that lost at Stanford despite holding them to 3.8 ypc by just 3 points and the reason was because of their 2 turnovers. Back at home led by their Jr QB David Fales who is completing nearly 75% of his passes I think they will be able to move the ball against Utah State defense that has not faced a team this season that will look to pass the ball. On average Utah State's defense has faced an average 79th passing offense and San Jose is 21st in the nation. Look out for Mackey Award nominee Ryan Otten who is having a great year and is one of several Seniors on this team.

As I mentioned San Jose is not all offense and this will be a bit of a coming out party for them. They currently rank 2nd in the nation in sacks and Utah State QB Chcukie Keeton could have major issues here running for his life especially since San Jose State is more prepared for this game and are 40th against the run and fresh off defending the triple option. Sr DE Travis Johnson is having a great year already.

3rd downs, my favorite stat as mentioned it just clarifies what the other stats say. Both teams are good on defense ranked in the top 25 with San Jose actually being a bit better and 4% better at home compared to Utah St on the road. Offensively San Jose is ranked 26th and is converting 10% more third downs than Utah State who is ranked 72nd. Utah State is also 102nd in penalties and 102nd in turnover margin per game while San Jose is +1 turnover per game at home and they have a kicker that's 100% on field goals while Utah St is only hitting 57% of their field goals. San Jose is just a more complete team and Utah State is still living off some of their early season success that suddenly does not look as good.

Stanford +7 4.4* Shocker
Let's not over react to Notre Dame's 41-3 win over Miami as the Hurricanes have been awful all year. I really like Stanford despite their 617 yards allowed last week as they faced an Arizona team that really runs a different offense than any other team Stanford has faced. Bottom line Stanford won the game and put up 617 yards themselves giving their offense and QB confidence moving into a critical showdown against Notre Dame.

Bottom line this is strength vs. strength as both teams like to run the ball and both defenses have been dominant at stopping the run. It will come down to which QB can move the ball better and Stanford's TE style offense will give Notre Dame issues. I'm still not sold on Notre Dame's QB choice in Everett Gholston and Stanford is led by a Junior that has full control over his emotions, he is able to make adjustments at the line of scrimmage and avoid mistakes. Gholston is just not at that level right now to make changes. If you look back at the last two match ups since Brian Kelly took over for Notre Dame one thing has been consistent Stanford has shut down Notre Dames offense and have been able to run the ball. Now Notre Dame's defense is way better than it has been in the past, but they also have a lot of catching up to do. Stanford held Notre DAme to 6 drives of 8 yards or less last year and Notre Dame really has not run the ball well at home only 2.2 ypc. They faced a couple of good run defense in Purdue and Michigan in close games decided by 7 points or less. Stanford's defense is much better ranked 10th against the run from a ypc perspective. I also believe Stanford is the better overall team than both of those Big Ten Schools.

Notre Dame will have a hard time converting third downs as Stanford has held opponents to 23% on third down this year. That will force a lot of field goals and game ending drives resulting in a game that will absolutely in my opinion be decided by less than 7 points. Look for Stanford to come out throwing on first down with Nunes to catch Notre Dame off guard. It's something they've shown already this season.

Iowa State +7 5.5* NCAAF POD; Iowa State +220 1* bonus
This is probably my favorite game all year and I feel most confident with it as Iowa State matches up extremely well with Kansas State. This is a pretty big rivalry with the teams separated by 350 miles and have a history of 95 meetings. For Iowa State players they have never beaten Kansas State. The last 4 match ups have been decided by 8, 1, 7, and 7 points with 3 of those 4 played at Kansas State and the 1 point loss at Iowa State. With a team full of veterans that were part of the team that shocked Oklahoma State at home last year, Iowa State has the ingredients for the upset as Kansas State's offense is not to hard to figure out.

Kansas State will runt he ball as they have ran the ball 71.67% of the time this year. Iowa State also will run the ball as they are ranked 43rd in running play % at 54.64%. This means the game is going to slow down quite a bit and Iowa State has arguably the two best linebackers in the Big 12 in Jake KNott and AJ Klein who lead a defense that's 29th in run defense form a yards per carry perspective and they have faced 3 top 50 rushing offenses already this year. Kansas State is also very good at stopping the run, but they have yet to face a top 50 rushing offense. In last years match up Iowa State actually out gained Kansas State on the ground on the road and held Klein in check 26 carreis for 86 yards and 7-15 passing. However, 2 turnovers did not help their chances.

Kansas State gets by and wins games by not turning the ball over and limiting their penalties well Iowa State is of the same brand as they are 5th in fewest penalties. Iowa State just came off a game against TCU where they were +4 in turnover margin. I believe that will carry over into this game and with QB Jared Barnett taking over the offense he has limited the mistakes and he's made some big plays down field with two 50+ yard touchdowns a week ago.

3rd down offense and defense is a key stat especially in close games like this and I think Iowa State holds an advantage despite Kansas State being #1 in third down defense in the antion. For one they have not faced a top 50 3rd down defense all year long (53, 75, 105, and 101st ranked 3rd down defenses) and now they face Iowa State who is ranked 36th holding opponents to 35.7%. On the flip side Kansas State's defense on third down leaves a lot to be desired as they have allowed 43.46% conversions and they have faced offenses ranked 110th, 49th, 109th and 31st. Overall I just think the resume of Iowa State is more impressive considering who they played. The idea that Iowa State can't run is a bit over rated since they have faced 4 defenses that are in the top 50 and 3 of those in the top 25. Kansas State has had a ton of success against poor run defenses with 3 of the 4 being outside the top 100 and the 4th ranked 77th. You could make an argument that Iowa State would be favored if they beat Texas Tech. Iowa State had troubles because they could not defend the pass and that's something they won't have to worry about too much in this game since Kansas State rarely passes.

Navy +2 3.3* Friday Night Lights
Off a nice win last night we look to back that up on Friday night with the Midshipmen who I think have some momentum here after defeating Air Force last week as they will look to move to 3-3.

rizona State -22 3.3* play
Both teams come off a bye and the only two reasons I don't have this as a play of the day is Arizona State has Oregon at home next week and they are laying significant road chalk. However, my formulas give this game a 73% ATS edge and after looking over this play I really like it.

The major reason I like it is Colorado is the worst offense in the PAC 12 and one of the worst in the country. They go up against Arizona State who is one of the best defenses in the country ranked 11th in total defense and 12th in scoring defense. Colorado will have major issues because they are 108th in ypc on the ground and could be without their only offensive weapon in RB Christian Powell who won't be 100%. Arizona State has been effective stopping the run anyway, but turning to the pass game is going to be a major issue for the Buffaloes. Arizona State is #1 in sack % and they are top 5 in the country in sacks and tackles for loss. Colorado is 119th in sacks allowed and are last in the league in scoring points. Colorado is 104th in TO margin per game and I think we could see a few here on Thursday night because of hte pressure Arizona State will get from DT Will Sutton who is playing like an All American right now.

The Sun Devils have really surprised me this year and we profited on them in their road win at California where they played extremely well. They also nearly pulled off a difficult win against Missouri out of the SEC and now winning at Colorado will not be a problem as Colorado is only converting 13% of their third downs at home.

SMU +125 3* PLAY
SMU off to a 1-3 start and it's not a huge surprise this team did lose on the road to Baylor and against TCU and Texas A&M. On paper Garret Gilbert looks awful, but it's been the source of a ton of drops this year by his receivers. But the key in this game will be SMU finally turning to the running game and Zach Line. SMU has faced some good run defenses in Texas AM and TCU both in the top 31 in the nation and now they face UTEP which is 108th in the nation and is allowing 5.6 ypc. RB Zach Line should have a huge game and I wouldn't be surprised if that boosts the entire offense and the passing game that has under achieved. UTEP's offense has been terrible 114th on third down conversions and their QB has only completed 51.3% for a 116 QB rating and won't be able to take advantage of a Mustangs depleted secondary.

Texas -6.5 3.3* play
Let's slow down with Geno Smith and this ridiculous West Virginia offense. This is West Virginia's first road game in the Big 12 and it comes at the most difficult place to play in Texas. Okay so watching last week's game and West Virginia's offensive line did a great job blocking, but Baylor was just incapable of getting a rush ranked 117th in sack % as was Marshall in their first game ranked 116th.

In West Virginia's only game against a team with a defense in Maryland ranked 31st in sack % they struggled and only won 31-21. Well Texas is better and they'll be at home and they actually have an offense that can go toe to toe. Texas is also fresh off a game with Oklahoma State which provided them with a nice tune up. Texas defense is 28th in third down defense allowing 33.3% conversions and 26% at home. While West Virginia is 116th, and while their offense is 1st right now in converting third downs again they haven't faced a team like Texas. Texas offense meanwhile can match them ranked 4th in third down offense. I don't see West Virginia continuing to have that type of success on the road.

Marshall +4 4.4* play
I really love this play with Marshall hosting Tulsa as Marshall really impressed me scoring 41 points on the road against Purdue who has the best front 4 in the Big Ten. Marshall also nearly beat Ohio, the best team in the MAC at home and led 14-0 early. Rakeem Cato and the offense is clicking and if it wasn't for 3 interceptions and penalties on the road they could have upset Purdue. They out gained both Ohio and Purdue in their losses. Cato has three 400+ yard passing games already and has one of the best duos at WR in Tommy Shuler who had 19 receptions last game a school record and played high school with Cato and Aaron Dobson.

On paper Marshal's defense looks terrible and they will likely go back and forth with Tulsa, but one good thing is that they are home where they were able to contain Ohio's offense which was a good sign. It's also not like Tulsa's defense is any better after allowing 42 points in their road game to UAB and allowed their QB to pass for 337 yards and 3 TD while completing 67% of his passes. Looking at the QB's in this match up and Cato has been way way better completing 70% of his passes for nearly a yard better per completion than Cody Green who is completing just 51.2% and has thrown 6 interceptions. Cato's QB rating is also 30 points better than Green's.

Cato will face a team that's #1 in TFL and sacks, but he's already faced Purdue and Ohio's defensive lines and Marshall is 39th in sack % and is only getting sacked 2.99% of the time at home. On offense they are converting 53.4% of their third downs while Tulsa is ranked 80th with just 35.7%. Now Marshal's defense on third down looks suspect at 53.23%, but keep in mind they faced two top 10 third down offenses and nobody outside the top 54 while Tulsa faced off against incompetent offenses ranked 73rd, 92nd, 111th, and 64th in third down offense. I give a major edge to a Marshall team that really has turned their program around in recent years and brought in a huge recruiting class last year that is already paying dividends.

Oklahoma -4.5 3.3* play
Throw out the stats in this game because both teams really haven't faced anyone. Texas Tech's stats are great on both sides of the ball and now they are ranked, but they are under dogs at home? Oklahoma off a bye week is huge and you best bet that they remember Texas Tech ruining their season last year when the Red Raiders upset Oklahoma at home as 29 point under dogs. Huge revenge spot here for Oklahoma and they get the extra week off to work on things.

Oklahoma was on a bye week last year going on the road to face a good Florida State team as a road favorite and won 23-13 and I think we see a similar score in this one. Oklahoma is 18-0 in the Big 12 road games coming off a loss which Oklahoma is against Kansas State. This is the first balanced offense Texas Tech has faced as Oklahoma is 30th in passing and 32n in rushing.

The Bottom Line:
Virginia +2 5.5* NCAAF POD
A lot of hype for Duke right now after their quick start, but it's about to end as they just are not going to be able to overcome these injuries that continue to pile up. It's also a great opportunity for Virginia to redeem themselves and turn around their season and it starts with a new QB in Phillip Simms who has looked good in his appearances this year.

Virginia continued to have issues with penalties and turnovers and the move to Simms should help alleviate those miscues as he has 5 TD and 0 interceptions while Michael Rocco gave the ball away 7 times with interceptions over the last 3 games alone. Duke is not much of a defense in terms of forcing turnovers and even though they are ranked 45th in total defense they have faced an average offense ranked 94th in total offense. Meanwhile Virginia has faced an average 56th total offense and has already played 4 bowl teams in Penn State, TCU, Georgia Tech and LA Tech.

Duke can pass the ball I'll give them that, but Sean Renfree might not even be able to play as he's questionable in this one, but even if he plays I'm confident in Virginia's pass defense ranked 40th in completion percentage defense. They play an offense that is very much one dimensional as Dukes rushing attack is ranked 112th in the nation. On the flip side look for Virginia to be able to run the ball a little bit again. While Duke has been good stopping the run they really haven't played anyone besides Stanford who can run and even Stanford is ranked 77th in ypc this year. I look for Perry Jones to have a big game as Duke has faced rushing offenses ranked 106th, 71st, 77th, and 82nd after allowing 5.1 yards per carry a year ago. The injuries in the secondary will be huge in this game too as Virginia's speed will pay dividends.

Penn State -2.5 3.3* Early Bird Play
Northwestern will be playing in just their second road game of the year and haven

Syracuse -1 5.5** ncaaf pod
Syracuse and Pittsburgh comes off a bye this week, but Syracuse is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off byes.

UTAH +14.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
USC has shown already on defense this year that they can get beat on the ground (allowing 5.5ypc against Stanford) or through the air (Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib 30-46 322 yards 2 TD's), and now they go on the road to Utah who is an angry team finally getting healthy.

I think the oddsmakers helped us in this one after Utah got beat badly at Arizona State 37-7, a game in which we were on Utah. Now everyone is loving USC going on the road but Utah has gotten much healthier in the secondary including getting back their S Brian Blechen off suspension. I think this will be a tight game like last year and playing at Utah is never an easy game for anyone.

USC has had protection issues as they are ranked 99th in sack % allowed while the Utes can get in the backfield and are 20th in sack % led by NT Star Lotulelei who will be trying to impress some NFL scouts. Look for him to play a big factor here tonight. That will make it tough for USC on third downs once again where they have had major issues just converting 31% on the season ranked 99th. Utah coincidentally is 22nd allowing just 32% conversions.

Offensively Utah is coming off a bye in which allowed them to get the offensive scheme in check and I think they'll come out and play a lot better. They get a healthy John White back finally and QB Hays has had some time to scheme up for USC who has been unable to get to the QB ranked 80th in sack % and are even worse on the road with a 2.5 sack %. People forget this is a rebuilt defensive line and the loss of Devon Keonnard via injury early was a devastating blow. I don't think they can win this game by 14 points. Kyle Whittingham is very good as Utah's head coach off byes 6-1 in his career and the Utes are 22-2-1 all time off a bye with their next game being at home. Take the Utes in a big game they need to redeem themselves.

Wisconsin +11.5 3.3* play
Monte Ball could be out for this game and if he is I may even take Wisconsin ML. Ball just doesn't seem to be the same guy and the offensive line is taking all the hit right now. Ball's back ups James White and Melvin Gordon ran for 177 yards and 3 TD's on 23 carries and Wisconsin made a change at QB in freshmen Joe Stave who was 12-17 for 210 yards. Now going on the road to play Nebraska is no easy task by any means, but Wisconsin is likely to play run first football and they've had great success in this match up doing so.

Now I think this line is a little crazy and I"m not sold on Taylor Martinez success of 70% throws 9 TD/ 1 INT for a 180 QB rating. For one he's faced pass defenses ranked 122nd, 29th, and 84th along with an FCS foe. Wisconsin is ranked 36th holding opponents to 57.02% completion percentage. What's going untold is how good Wisconsin's defense has been. Their run defense is even better as they are 1 of 3 teams not to allow a rush of more than 20 yards. They've allowed just 1 rushing TD all year and are ranked 19th allowing 94 ypg and only allow 2.9 ypc. They faced a similar style offense from Utah State and kept that rushing attack in check as well. Once Nebraska is unable to run they will turn to the passing game and Martinez always struggles against teams with good LB and Wisconsin has just that.

Arguably the best duo in the country is Mike Taylor and Chris Borland combining for nearly 300 tackles a year ago. They are backed up by a terrific safety duo as well. Wisconsin can really stack the box as Nebraska really does not have major threats on the outside and Martinez really doesn't have the zip on the ball to throw accurately outside the numbers. Martinez stats against Wisconsin last year 11-22 176 yards 3 interceptions as Wisconsin dominated. Of course this game is at Nebraska but their defense is allowing 4.8 ypc and they are 103rd allowing 225.7 yards per game on the ground while allowing 44% conversions ranked 80th while Wisconsin's defense is 16th allowing 29.63%. As always defense wins and so does Wisconsin at least on the spread.

South Florida +17.5 3.3* play
Don

Arizona State pk 4.4* play
Arizona State shocked me last week putting up 37 points against Utah's stingy defense and I'm now a believer. It seems like Todd Graham's spread offense is more of a fit in the PAC 12 after all. After little success with Pitt in the Big East it seems like Graham has the speed and athleticism to play the style of football he wants. Taylor Kelly has been amazing completing 71.7% of his passes for 1000 yards and 6 TD's while limiting the turnovers with just 2 interceptions. They will go on the road to play an inconsistent California team that has started with a rough schedule and is off to a 1-3 start. I think Cal is in for another tough match up because Arizona States defense is also playing well as they are top 10 in sacks, tackles for loss, and pass defense and they also have 8 interceptions already.

California have a veteran QB in Zach Maynard and arguably the most talented player on the field in WR Keenan Allen, but their offensive line is in shambles and they have already allowed 18 sacks. They have just 1 offensive linemen with any real starting experience due to injuries. Arizona's aggressive style should allow them to force some turnovers as Maynard has never been known for his carefulness. Defensively you should watch out for DT Will Sutton he's arguably the best defensive player in the PAC 12 right now and JC transfer Chris Young is having quite a start for the Sun Devils with 8.5 TFL already. In the end it's going to come down to Cal's inability to win close games and keep the chains moving. Offensively they are 113th with a 27.91 % converting third downs. They really are going to struggle with that offensive line and Arizona State's aggressive approach. Look for Arizona State offensively to take the ball out of Taylor Kelly's hand and put it in the hands of their electrifying RB's with Cameron Marshal, DJ Foster and Marion Grice all capable of breaking one while Cal's defense has been suspect against the run allowing 5.2 ypc. Cal's pass rush has not been that good with just 3 sacks in 3 games and if you can't get to the QB you won't stop Todd Graham's spread.

Michigan State -2.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
It's a huge match up between the two best teams in the Big Ten and I love Michigan State to defeat the Buckeyes for the second year in a row. For one there are a lot of question marks surrounding Ohio State. For one this is their firsst road game of the year and as good as their defense has looked at times their secondary has been a disaster at times and they haven't faced any capable offenses with total offensive ranks of opponents ranked - 75, 78, 71, and 99th. Michigan State is by no means an elite offense ranked 62nd, but in the end it will be the better defense winning this game.

I"m still not even sold on the Buckeyes rush defense which is ranked 35th allowing 121.8 yards per game. Keep in mind this is a team that on the road last year allowed 187.5 yards per game. They have some serious questions up front and have not lived up to the hype and have gotten away because the secondary has come up with 7 interceptions. I think Michigan State QB has already played in two big games against Notre Dame and Boise State that has allowed him to have more sense of confidence as we look towards this big game. IT also doesn't hurt that Michigan State is home. Michigan State is also 9th against the run and has the best trio of linebackers in the country (arguably). Ohio State has faced run defenses ranked 96th, 104th, 120th, and 65th. Michigan State is also 3rd in completion % defense so Braxton Miller is going to have a hard time getting this offense going and at some points he's going to force a few bad plays leading to interceptions. It'll be close throughout but Le'Veon Bell should take this game over. This game reminds me of when Ohio State lost on the road to Nebraska last year where Nebraska was able to control the game with the run and play excellent defense. In that game Ohio State was actually able to run to 5.9 ypc and that's just not going to happen on the road against this Michigan State front 7.

Kent St +3 -115 2.5* play
Kent State is off a very impressive showing up in Buffalo and have 2 extra days to prepare for this game against Ball State which has Northern Illinois on deck and is coming off a big win against South Florida. However, facing Kent State on the road may prove to be more challenging. Particularly because Kent State is making a QB change. Spencer Keith has the experience and should still get some snaps but JC transfer David fisher looks like the guy who is much more capable of making big plays. Kent State relies on the rushing attack and Fisher is a QB that adds to that offense that should have success considering Ball State is ranked 71st allowing 226 yards on the ground this year as well as 4.5 yards per carry ranked 75th. Look for Kent State to control time of possession in this one via their running game.

On the flip side Ball State and QB Keith Wenning has been impressive averaging 31.2 ppg, but QB Wenning only has a 117.9 QB rating. Kent State really looked like the old aggressive defense along with the best defensive player in the conference, Roosevelt Nix, last week as they only allowed 265 yards and had 3 interceptions and a fumble recovery. The only points they allowed came on a hail mary before the half. Ball State has not been able to find a way to get off the field as they are 113th in 3rd down defense after 53% last year and Kent State is ranked 25th allowing just 32%. Kent State has also enjoyed a +3 turnover margin and enjoy the best player on the field in Dri Archer. Look for Archer to have 200+ all purpose yards as he gets the ball in space he's a real weapon coming from all over the field either via the hand off or pass.

BYU/Hawaii U49.5 3.3* PLAY

Washington +7 -120 4* play

1* bonus

Hawaii +8 3.3* play; Hawaii +255 1* bonus
Hawaii is a tough team to beat at home and Nevada is more aware of that than any other team. Now these teams face off as part of the Mountain West and Nevada tries to avoid an 8th straight loss on the road to Hawaii. I'm not sold on this Hawaii team this is a team that lost at home to South Florida, a team that had to travel across the country. Their secondary has been shredded over the last 5 quarters for 584 yards. Even though Hawaii will feature a more pro style offense under Norm Chow the ability to score points will be there especially with what looks like 3 weeks to prepare.

Hawaii had a bye week after week 1 at USC and then faced Lamar at home. There is no doubt in my mind that his staff has spent time preparing for Nevada, a conference opponent and he was able to get in some work with the new look rushing attack in the scrimmage against Lamar. Hawaii was actually solid at USC allowing just 81 yards rushing and held USC to 4-14 on third down. Nevada's high octane rushing attack will have trouble moving the ball against Hawaii a bit who is very aggressive and athletic and able to get into the backfield. Hawaii was among the best in sack % at 7.46 and that should play huge dividends as we saw against USC in their ability to get off the field on third down. Watch out for Hawaii's LB Art Laurel who is a terror at making plays in the backfield.

Utah +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 5.5*
Utah gets a huge boost with the return of John White this week and they are 8-0 when he rushes over 100 yards. After rushing for 85 last year he should be on his away against Arizona State as Utah seeks revenge after losing 35-14 at home a year ago to the Sun Devils. Last year was a unique situation because it was the first game QB John Hays was thrown into the fire at QB after Wynn got hurt. This year it is Hays again because of a career ending injury to Wynn and he's much more prepared. Utah led last year 14-13 with 5 minutes to go in the third quarter it was Hays 3 interceptions that sparked Arizonas State's victory as Utah was -5 in turnover margin and Brock Osweiler was able to keep a balanced offense.

Well Osweiler is off in the NFL playing for the Broncos and Arizona State has a new coach and he's not a very good one in my opinion in Todd Graham who will run an uptempo offense and use two QB's. That's going to be a major issue going into this game because Utah's defense is the real deal led by Star Lotulelei, the defensive line should get push and pressure with just a 4 man blitz. That will create issues for sophomore QB Todd Kelly and I think the turnover advantage will be flipped in Utah's advantage. Make no mistakes about it Utah will make Arizona work for their first downs and points as they are 14th in 3rd down conversion defense while Arizona State is 79th and their offense despite putting up some points has only converted 26% of their opportunities.

In ugly games like this it comes down to who can play better special teams and create turnovers and I give that edge to Utah who is led by two senior kickers including punter Tom Hacket who is fresh off his PAC 12 special teams player of the week award. As far as turnovers go, I think they are in the rearview mirror for Hays he completed 67% of his passes last week and has 2 TD's 0 interceptions on the year. Add in that Arizona State is sacked 8.2% of their drop backs and I think we have a recipe for some opportunistic plays from the Utes defense.

Duke -23.5 2.2* bonus
This is a strong lead generated by my formulas and my research is enough for a small play here with Duke's ability to put up points. Duke is 16th in passing this year behind an experienced QB in Sean Renfree who rarely gets sacked. That's convenient for Renfree returning home going against a Memphis defense that has yet to sack a QB. This game could get ugly as Duke should put up 40+ points and probably even 50. Don't look for Duke to sleep on Memphis as this team will be hungry for wins with an ACC schedule ahead of them. The defense has also shown an opportunistic side and that's something we look for in these games with large spreads.

Temple +7 3.3* play
Temple has been so close winning this rivalry game the last two years but have come up short. I think this is the year they can get the win. Yes last week was a nice win for Penn State, but now they are about to face a style of defense that won't benefit Matt McGloin. Temple also has an extra week to prepare for what's a huge in state rivalry game for them. They don't forget last year where they blew a 10-7 lead in the 4th quarter. Temples strength is their defense as they have produced a few NFL starters over the last few years, but their secondary is the strength this year with a senior dominated depth chart returning from a group that had more interceptions than passing TD's allowed a year ago. This falls into exactly what Penn State has been doing in passing the ball and I don't think they'll have the time they have had to throw the ball 40-50 times like they have the last few years.

Don't forget even after putting up 30+ points last week against a Navy team that can not get any sort of pass rush they are still ranked 98th in scoring. On the flip side Temple's offense has not shown much and has the extra time and preparation to add a few wrinkles. Coyer is a more capable passer than a year ago and I think Penn State's secondary is vulnerable to big plays and that's something you will see Temple try on Saturday.

Missouri +10.5 3.3* play,
I feel that the oddsmakers are really exaggerating the line here after South Carolina dominated a couple of Conference USA teams in UAB and East Carolina. Missouri meanwhile got a tough win with their star player missing time in QB James Franklin who is probably for Saturday. Missouri will challenge South Carolina's secondary that has 4 starters who combine for just 3 starts. South Carolina has not faced a team that can pass thus far and with injuries and a suspension in their secondary leaves them vulnerable despite their strong pass rush.

On the other side South Carolina has injury issues on offense as well with Connor Shaw, but he should start and the Gamecocks will look to pound the rock and that falls into the strength of Missouri who can obviously defend the rush holding Georgia to 3.2 ypc and only allowed 3.8 ypc last year. I expect Missouri which has a more balanced offense right now to have the advantage as long as Franklin is 90% like he has said. Missouri really surprised me in Georgia as I had Georgia as my big play a few weeks ago. They hung with Georgia for 3 quarters before Georgia pulled away.

Look for Missouri which has started the season passing more to scale it back a bit this week and run more despite South Carolina's issues in the secondary. South Carolina has one of the best pass rushes and Missouri will want to keep this game close and avoid the big mistakes. South Carolina meanwhile has been slow out of the gate this year and the longer you leave Missouri in the game the more confident they will get and they definitely have the talent to pull an upset here with the way South Carolina's secondary is lacking experience. Bottom line it's who can avoid the mistakes as both defenses are at the top of their game allowing 25% conversions on third downs. I'll trust Missouri's offense over South Carolina's offense in this one as they are more battle tested thus far and that should benefit them in this game.

Kansas +10 -120 buy 1/2 2.5* play
Charlie Weiss has not been shy about his strategy this year and that is to milk the clock. last year Kansas defeated Northern Illinois at home 45-42 and Northern Illinois clearly is not the same team and neither is Kansas. If anything Kansas seems to have more of an idea while Northern Illinois just was gashed on the ground by Army. Kansas will return their best player in James Simms at RB and he should have field day. This will be a huge game for Kansas as they will continually not be favored the rest of the year. I think they can most certainly take this game with Sims returning and behind the big arm of Dayne Christ who almost led a little come back against TCU before he fumbled at the goal line. The Kansas defense is also #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers with 12 already and I think Jordan Lynch the QB of Northern Illinois will have more troubles than he had last week against Army. Remember Lynch is not left with a lot of help without a go to RB and a rebuilt offensive line that left with the departure of star QB Chandler Harnish.

Army +7 3.3* EB Play
Our lone early game is Army facing off against Wake Forest and once again I'm leaning on Army heavily to give Wake Forest all kinds of issues. This is the same Wake Forest team that had all types of issues with Liberty in week 1. I expect Army to pull an upset here as they are better than they have played and the offense seemed to have clicked last week. Wake Forest's run defense has struggled early allowing 6.2 yards per carry and this is a team that has not seen the triple option in over year as they did not face Georgia Tech a year ago. The big key here is they are likely without their man on the interior in Nikita Whitlock. Whitlock would be the key to stopping the triple option and I think allowing 385 yards to Florida State is just a sign of things to come.

On the flip side Army should turn out a better performance on the defense side of the ball. For one Wake Forest is 121st in the nation converting just 18% of their third downs and although they have a solid veteran at QB in Tanner Price he is passing behind a completely rebuilt offensive line with 4 new starters. Look for Army to improve with the addition of DE Jarret Mackey coming back after missing the first few games. Offensively Army will enjoy their 25th rank on 3rd down conversions and that's where this game will be decided because Wake is no better at stopping third downs ranked 73rd than they are at converting.

LA Monroe +7.5 3.3* play
Well now everyone is aware of LA Monroe after they were competitive against two solid SEC teams. I thought the Warhawks would fold in a hangover spot on the road at Auburn after upsetting Arkansas, but they only lost by a FG and should have won with a couple missed field goals. That tells me all I need to know about this team as they are definitely mentally tough and will be a lot for Baylor to handle tonight in their tight 20,000 stadium that will consume a ton of energy and enthusiasm from the fans making it difficult for Baylor at times.

Baylor meanwhile has had a cupcake schedule against Sam Houston and SMU, a team that lost 3-48 to Texas A&M and has a completely rebuilt offensive line. Both of these teams threw for over 300 yards against Baylor's defense which still does not look any better than a year ago and that sets things up nicely for Kolton Browning who has 649 yards passing in 2 games 6 TD and 1 INT thus far vs. two SEC defenses. Quite impressive and he should have plenty of success against Baylor since Baylor can't get any sort of pass rush. Baylor had 0 sacks vs. SMU a team breaking in a completely rebuilt offensive line. Baylor leaned on their ability to get the turnovers in that game, but now they play an LA Monroe team that's +3 in that department.

Defensively LA Monroe runs a 3-3-5 defensive scheme that could confuse Nick Florence who has yet to prove anything against weak competition. Florence threw 2 interceptions and only completed 58% of his passes against Sam Houston. Look for him to make some mistakes and that will only lead to the crowd going crazy and shifts in momentum. I think the Warhawks have a great opportunity here and a real chance to upset Baylor. Baylor's offense for all its done this year are just 25% on third down conversions. They went 2-8 against SMU and 3-12 vs. Sam Houston. LA Monroe's defense is better than both of those teams and has held Arkansas and Auburn to 37.5 % conversions through the first two games. Baylor's defense meanwhile allowed 60% this year and allowed 51% conversions a year ago.

BYU +7 4.4* NCAAF POD
A short week off after a tough loss to Utah can only be a good thing for this veteran team. Playing a team like Boise State on national television will be a quick opportunity to find redemption and this is not the same Boise State team of previous years.

Kent St +4 4.4* POD
to me the oddsmakers are getting away with what the public will misinterpret each team

Utah Utes +3.5 4.4* play
Utah will also have the extra day to prepare as they'll host BYU after defeating them 54-10 a year ago on the road. BYU has major revenge and they do have some advantages after Utah lost their starting QB, but this is nothing new with Jordan Wynn out senior QB Jon Hays will step in again. When he did that last year he won 7 of Utah's last 8 games. Going up against BYU should be an ugly game and they need a signal caller that can manage the offense and feed RB John White who rushed for 176 yards against BYU last year.

Utah is getting no credit after losing to Utah STate but as we mentioned above Utah STate is damn good. Utah is still only allowing 15.38 % 3rd down conversions and are led by top 5 draft pick hopeful at DT Star Lotulelei. BYU's star is QB senior Riley Neslon but he's short on experience on the road in this rivalry never playing here and he came in the game last year completing 3-6 and threw an interception. Utah's run defense is there we know, but their pass defense is really under rated as they were #1 in pass completion % in the PAC 12 and were one of the rare teams to hold Matt Barkley to under 2 TD passes. Their secondary has talent, depth and big play abilities that should help decide this game by winning the turnover battle which is something Utah has dominated in this series of late. If that fails Utah is led by one of the best punters and place kicker combos in the nation and will have an edge on special teams where close games are often decided.

Utah State +14 2.2* play; Utah State +415 1* bonus
Utah State comes off arguably one of their best wins ever over a good Utah team and this team continues to gain national respect. Normally I look at a team to have a hang over, but the extra day of prep and the all the issues Wisconsin is having gives me reason to believe they can pull the upset.

Utah State is the real deal behind Chuckie Keeton who is effective passing the ball and running the ball and Wisconsin is a little vulnerable against a dual threat QB like Keeton and not nearly as good as the Utah defense. Against Utah he ran for 86 yards and threw for 216. Now this game is on the road, but this is the same Wisconsin team that struggled and lost at Oregon State and nearly lost to Northern Iowa at home to open the year. Utah State is now tested and they are ready for a national win after nearly upsetting Auburn last year this team is even hungrier for a win here.

Wisconsin should be able to run the ball right? Well they just fired their offensive line coach which is rare during the season especially after losing their OL coach from a year ago and now a grad assistant takes over. I don't see the rushing offense getting any better for Monte Ball who has struggled. Especially without Danny O'Brien opening up any sort of a balanced attack and now he's without his top WR in Jared Abbrederis. Watch out for Utah State's ability to stop the run as they held the PAC 12's best RB from a year ago to just 3.6 ypc and held Auburn a year ago to just 2.6 ypc. Wisconsin is currently last in the Big Ten in running the ball and they are going to have to be stubborn and try to continue to run the ball because O'Brien is no Wilson barely completing 50% of his passes.

Notre Dame +6 5.5* NCAAF POD
9 of the last 12 match ups between these two teams have been decided by a TD or less and I think this game will be no different. First of all the Big Ten's rep is taking major hits as they went 0-3 against the PAC 12 last week and has not really come up with many signature wins. Notre Dame is under rated here despite their lackluster performance against an under rated Purdue team. That was a tough game for Notre Dame after playing in Dublin the week before and so far this team looks better than a year ago as they are avoiding the big mistakes and forcing turnovers.

Michigan State on the other hand will have their hands full in my opinion as the Irish have a balanced attack and this will be the first balanced attack Michigan State has faced as the Irish also get a fresh Cierre Wood back. Michigan State can run the ball too and they are getting a lot of credit behind Leveon Bell - but Bell had just 29 yards a year ago on 23 carries and Michigan State was dominated despite having Kirk Cousins and other veteran players. Now they'll start QB Andrew Maxwell against an even better defense. Maxwell struggled against a Boise State group that had 9 new starters. Notre Dame is getting a pass rush and is led by one of the best LB in the country that will shut down this rushing game and put the game in the hands of Andrew Maxwell who threw 3 interceptions at home against Boise State. Notre Dame has 6 takeaways and 7 sacks through the first 2 games and have a rising star in sophomore Stephon Tuitt.

Michigan State's defense is supposed to be great with the elite running backs, but Notre Dame scored 31 points on them in back to back years and the DL has registered just 1 sack and 7 tackles for loss. Notre Dame's first team offense is among the best in the country in converting on third down's with 18-26. Golson at QB is a wild card as he's proving he can throw the ball. Maxwell showed he can do it against Central Mich, but the Chippewas do not have a good pass defense. Meanwhile Notre Dame has a pass rush and their secondary is more athletic than in years past and will create turnovers on Saturday. As long as Notre Dame does not have a disaster day turning the ball over I think they'll win this game.

Tennessee -2.5 3.3* play
In this match up it's all about Tyler Bray and WR Justin Hunter making plays. Florida's front has yet to prove it's an elite group as they have lacked the big plays with just 4 sacks and 1 turnover the defense of Florida is good but is it good enough to go on the road in back to back weeks in the SEC and win? I don't think so as true freshmen Manziel from Texas A&M completed 23-30.. Just imagine what Bray at home can do throwing to Justin Hunter who had 8 catches 146 yards and 3 TD's. Tennessee has speed to burn in addition to Hunter and Bray had success against Florida last year throwing for 288 yards and 3 TD's in Florida. Tennessee may lack a running game, but if it can get up early on Florida they should be able to cruise. It also helps Tennesse is able to protect Bray as they are 28th in sack % and were among the best last year too.

Florida's offense has allowed 9 sacks and are 110th in passing offense. It's nothing new TN will know what's coming from Florida and they are athletic enough on defense to keep this offense in check. Look out for DT Daniel McCullers to have an impact at 6-7 and 360 he's the key to TN 3-4 scheme. He has not gotten on the field a lot due to the opponents running a lot of spread, but Florida has a more traditional pro offense and Tennessee's rush defense will only benefit with McCullers on the field. This is Derek Dooley's biggest game of his career and I think Florida's secondary will get exposed by the no huddle quick strike offense of Tennessee. Florida's secondary is over rated due to the fact it rarely has faced a good passing QB in the last year, but Bray had success last year and is even better this year.

Purdue -23.5 3.3* Early Bird Special
Purdue comes off a tough loss against Notre Dame on the road and lost one of their QB's in Robert Marve, but luckily they are used to running two QB systems that are difficult to plan for and Caleb Terbush will be fine against an inferior opponent in Eastern Mich.

Eastern Mich lost 31-3 and 34-6 to Penn State and Michigan and in my opinion Purdue is in between those two teams from last year. Eastern Mich's defense is clearly worse and their offense has gotten off to a poor start and will have all kinds of issues on Saturday. First of all Purdue was able to run the ball at will against quality opponents at home last year and against EAstern Mich allowing 6 ypc against Illinois State and Ball State this year, I believe Purdue will have plenty of success again with Terbush and Akeem Shavers as Eastern Mich also has 3 new starters up front. But what I really like in this match up is the strength vs. strength and Eastern Mich just does not match up. EAstern Michigan was 14th last year in running the ball, but thus far they have struggled and Purdues front 4 is clearly the strength of this team holding Notre Dame's rushing attack in check to 1.6 ypc. Eastern Mich will not be able to run and their passing game was last in the MAC last year.

Purdue should have balance as Eastern Mich is 96th in sack % and are allowing 63% completion rate. Purdue already had their hickup struggling in their opener vs. an FCS and committed 5 turnovers and numerous special teams mistakes. They buttoned that up against Notre Dame and will be solid at home against Eatern Mich as they cruise to a 30 point win!

UNLV +8.5 3.3* PLAY
UNLV got crushed in this game on the road a year ago and now they are home and only under dogs by 8.5 points against a Mike Leach offense?? Looks to good to be true for Wash State backers right? Well I disagree and I'll tell you why - UNLV's defense looks like it has drastically improved thus far holding opponents to 20% conversions on third down. They held Minnesota to 13 points in regulation and it's not like Washington State is putting up big numbers yet despite having the talents of WR Marquess Wilson. The QB situation gets worse with Jeff Tuel likely not playing. They have a capable back up but there is a reason why Leach did not start him to begin with. It's evident Leach is not very happy about the depth at QB. When asked how his QB did at half time in the opener against BYU he replied "average" on national television. His no BS is not usually not a morale boost for a team that should have its work cut out for them in Vegas tonight.

UNLV's offense on the other side will look to play ball control and they should be able to do a good job of it as Washington State is allowing nearly 60% conversions on third down and they haven't played anyone special. UNLV will run the ball with junior Tim Cornett who has 100+ yards rushing in 4 of his last 5 games including both games this year. Washington STate is allowing 4.6 ypc and they struggle to get to the QB with a 2.56% sack percentage last year. UNLV should stay in this game with special teams, ground and pound, and good defense on third down or bend but not break. Washington State is only averaging 2.2 ypc on the ground and did not score a point in the 2nd half a week ago. A short week won't help as they prepare for a trip to Vegas. UNLV has the advantage on special teams and thus far in the TO margin department as Washington STate is already -4 on the year and they allowed 4 TD's last year on kick offs so expect UNLV to have an advantage there. UNLV is also 6-1-1 in their last 8 Friday's and are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games as a dog 3.5-10 points.

Rutgers/USF U45.5 2.2* PLAY / Rutgers +14/U52 -120 2* Teaser
South Florida is coming back after a long trip out West where they played at high altitude and now they are on a short week. Rutgers meanwhile has barely shown a pulse on offense this season and they haven't been exactly playing juggernauts. South Florida's offense has looked good thus far, but they are about to get a wake up call on a short week playing Rutgers that returns 9 starters and can be dominant against the run. BJ Daniels has struggled against Rutgers in his career over 3 starts completing 31-68 passes while throwing 3 TD's and 3 INT's. Rutgers was dominant a year ago against the run and they have a veteran unit returning. Their secondary only allowed just 8 passing TD's and they have the secondary to match up with WR Andre Davis.

I just think this is major let down spot for South Florida and the offense after playing so well at Nevada pulling the come back win and Rutgers is so disciplined on third downs last year allowing just 32.14 % conversions while South Florida's offense was among the worst in converting ranked 8th 37% that this game will tend to be a low scoring game. Rutgers should be shut down on offense, but they will be good enough to move the ball a bit with the talent they have at tackle. Don't sleep on their ability to block punts and their punt coverage when they punt is one of the best giving them a major advantage in that department. When it comes down to it I think this will be a low scoring game with South Florida probably winning, but it won't be easy.

Arizona +11 3.3* LNF Arizona +350 0.5* play
I love Arizona in this spot along with their new spread offense that put up 600+ yards in its debut vs. Toledo. Oklahoma State won 84-0 to Savannah State in a game that never should have been scheduled. However, Oklahoma State could not find an opponent this summer once the Big 12 broke up a bit and they had to settle on a team that had no business playing that game. The result is an inflated line this week and a misconception on Oklahoma State's team. Sure behind Gundy they will have a group that can score points, but how accurate is this line considering just a year ago they were only -14 at home vs. Arizona. Now on the road after losing QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon they are still double digit favorites? I just do not see it.

Arizona can win this game outright if they clean up the turnovers and that may be a huge if, but they should still be in good position to cover the spread and keep this close. For one Oklahoma State is traveling west playing a late game with a true freshmen QB in Wes Lunt who is going to be in a completely different atmosphere than last week in the Zoo. Oklahoma State also returns just one starter along their offensive line. Although they had depth and return some veterans it's an unknown on whether or not John Randle can be explosive again. On Arizona's side they have more experience at the QB position in 5th year senior Matt Scott who can also run unlike Nick Foles as he had 74 yards rushing last week opening up the offense for others including RB Ka'Deem Carey who could be one of the best young RB's in all of the PAC 12.

Arizona also has some talent at WR in Dan Buckner and others who are experienced along with senior C Kyle Quinn who remembers the previous beat downs they have gotten from the Cowboys in recent years. This year is as good as any to turn the tables and get a win especially with Oklahoma State playing in a non serious way while Arizona has already showed some heart in winning a close game over Toledo. Oklahoma State is not preparing for the same team as a year ago as Arizona has a new offense behind Rich Rodriguez as well as a new 3-3-5 defensive scheme that I wonder if true freshmen Wes Lunt has ever seen? Should be a solid game and I'll take the home dog with double digits to cover this one.

Georgia -2 4.4* NCAAF POD
Welcome to the SEC Missouri and DT Sheldon Richardson thank you for running your mouth. This is not old man football this is the best brand of football responsible for the last 6 national championships type of football.

With all of that said Missouri is about to step up to the big leagues and I have many doubts they are capable against one of the favorites in the SEC in Georgia. For one Missouri will have issues considering they'll start 4 new offensive linemen on the interior and while two tackles return they have a tendency to get beat on inside moves and it just so happens that Georgia is loaded along their front 7, 3-4 defensive scheme. That's bad news for Missouri's star offensive player James Franklin who is more of a runner than he is a passer. Franklin loves to throw off his back foot and is prone to making mistakes and he is the majority of their offense especially after the loss of Egnew, Kemp and Josey as well as 4 offensive linemen. The offense was 11th on 3rd down conversions in the Big 12 last year and I don't see it improving despite the size on the outside that this team has especially in the SEC. A year ago they were converting less than 40% of their third down attempts. That's partially due to them running the ball or passing to the RB 67% of the time on 1st down. That normally created a 2nd and 7 or longer where they ran again 63% of the time. That's not going to get them anywhere against Georgia's front 7. To me this game will quickly turn into a defensive game and that will quite the crowd quickly and give Georgia a major advantage.

Georgia returns their star QB in Aaron Murray after he threw 35 TD's a year ago and did not miss a beat without WR A.J. Green. Although Missouri has the talent to beat SEC teams I just don't think this will be their day as Georgia will have the field position in their favor all day. Led by receiver Tavarres King I believe the group of speedy receivers will be able to take advantage of a suspect secondary.

Army +7 -120 3* play
San Diego State put up just 12 points at Washington a week ago and that's because they are without Ryan Lindley and Ronnie Hillman on offense as they were the key members at QB/RB that led San Diego State to a healthy offense over the last few years. San Diego State will have to face an Army team that seeks revenge from their 23-20 loss after compiling a 5.2 ypc average and they have everyone back on offense including 4 year starter in QB Trent Steelman.

Army is small and quick and they will match up well against San Diego State and their 3-3-5 defensive scheme because they too are irregularly small up front on both sides of the ball. San Diego State is even starting a converted TE in Quigley at LT and we are already seeing the results of a line that's due to struggle this year after bieng sacked 4 times last week. QB transfer Ryan Katz struggled finishing 10-19 with an interception and 4 sacks. Army should be able to hold up and get some stops and although San Diego State is familiar with the triple option they have been unable to really stop it. It's always been their offense that has carried them and outscored the triple option and I don't think they will do it against an Army team with extra preparation and a veteran led team hungry to get to a bowl game.

Penn State +10 2.2* EB play
Getting away from Pennsylvania can only be a good thing for Penn State this week. It

Utah St +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 4* NCAAF POD
Utah vs. Utah State , both teams will be going to a bowl game this year if you ask me, but this game means everything to Utah State as the Aggies would love to take down their in state rival and bigger brother Utah. This is a team that nearly shocked Auburn on the road early last year losing 42-38 so they have plenty of ability to take down Utah tonight as Gary Anderson is one of the better unknown head coaches around. Anderson's defense should pick up where they left off as #1 in the WAC last year despite losing some players they are tackling machines led by a strong secondary that will keep this game close. IT also helps that Anderson was the DC at Utah for many years and is very familiar with Utah.

Utah State offensively will be solid behind returner at QB Chuckie Keeton and they are led by an offensive line that was solid last year and returns their star C in Tyler Larsen who should be able to neutralize Utah's star defensive line men in Lotolelei. Utah State had an efficient passing game with 64% completions and 23 TD while throwing just 6 interceptions and the offensive linemen know how to block and zone block well. That will make things easier for the runners in Joe Hill and Kerwyn Williams. Utah on the other hand in their opener did struggle a little and missed several big plays that once again won't be there tonight. On one possession it took them 21 plays to score on an FCS school. This is a team that was 106th in 3rd down conversions 33.95% last year while Utah State was 9th at 48.86% and Utah State's defense was even better holding opponents to 35% conversions on third down. I think they can have the same type of success especially since Utah has to replace two all conference tackles. Utah has plenty of talent at OL and size, but this is the perfect time for the Aggies to pull an upset.

Pittsburgh +5 3.3* play
Much of the public is hammering away at Cincinnati especially considering Pittsburgh lost to an FCS foe last week at Youngstown State. For one Youngstown caught a break as the Panthers had no depth on defense especially along the defensive line as Paul Chryst sent a message by suspending 6 players a week ago. This is a completely different Pittsburgh team than a year ago and in a good way as they get back to their roots of running and setting up the pass. Cinci has their own issues as they lost so many stars on offense and defense and have 60 1st and 2nd year players on the roster. The quick turn around for Pitt is a good thing in this case after losing to an FCS foe and having revenge for last years meeting with Cinci. Pitt also got a warm up against a spread offense that should only benefit them tonight. Paul Chryst was the OC for Wisconsin the last 6 years so he was a perfect fit for a Pitt team that perennially would run the ball and they will be running behind a more balanced offense and an offensive line that

Virginia Tech/ Georgia Tech U47.5 Georgia Tech brings it's triple option to Lane Stadium in what is a very very important game in the ACC Coastal division. Virginia Tech returns nearly all of their starters on defense and for the first time Bud Foster's group will have ample time preparing for the triple option and he has the players to shut it down. The Hokies return their entire front 7 led by James Gayle on the front 4 and All-American Bruce Taylor at linebacker. The front 7 are ridiculously fast off the ball and Georgia Tech does not have that WR that can keep a defense honest this year with Stephen Hill off playing in the NFL. I'm sure the Yellow Jackets will develop one, but in the first game of the season in a very important game I expect both teams to come out conservative especially the Hokies on offense. Virginia Tech has Logan Thomas at QB and the guy is a beast with NFL measurables, but there are a lot of questions at RB, along the offensive line and at WR. Expect a lot of run and tuck it from Thomas and a low scoring game because of that. The Hokies are also Under the total in 15 of their last 21 games.

SMU +7.5 3.3* PLAY
There are a lot of questions regarding SMU's offense with 5 new starters on the offensive line, and Gilbert coming over to play QB for June Jones from Texas. I actually think this will be a great change of scenery for the 5-star recruit in Gilbert and the offensive line won't be terrible considering they have several veterans that have started along the line before. Gilbert is perfect for the run and shoot and I think this offense can really take off especially with dynamic WR Darius Johnson and RB Zach Line. If there was a team a new offense would want to play it's the Baylor defense which should have many of the same issues they had a year ago. They couldn't stop the run or the pass and it started up front where they had just 19 sacks and allowed 5.2 ypc. Line should have a huge game going against a 4-2-5 defense that will have to play honest in Jones style of play calling. Baylor was 118th in pass defense and gets all of those starters back so I don't think it's a good thing. On the other side of the ball....

Baylor will be just fine with QB Nick Florence taking over but it may take a little bit as the offense lost 5 starters to the NFL. The offensive line will be juggled and could have some issues against SMU's front 7 which is tough against the run and has good linebacker speed. Baylor will want to run a lot, but I think SMU should be able to hold up and at least force this team to kick field goals. Pass defense is the main issue for SMU, but again this is a perfect warm up for them with Florence an unknown at QB. All in all the pass defense still stiffened in the red zone as they only allowed 15 passing touchdowns. Watch out for defensive end Margus Hunt from SMU. He could be a huge star on the rise and can get to the QB and I think he could be the best defensive player on the field on Sunday night.

Auburn +3 -105 5* NCAAF POD
This game will be on a neutral field in Atlanta and the under rated Auburn team in my opinion will win it. All this Tigers team needs to do for motivation is check out the youtube clip of Dabo Swinney fired up after they beat Auburn at home 38-24 and that was after they trailed 21-7. Look for Auburn to have a lot of revenge on their mind in a game that won't be anything like last year and I'll tell you why.

Before I get into Auburn note that they were not terrible last year going 8-5 losing 4 on the road to very good teams Clemson, Arkansas, LSU, Georgia and then they lost one home game against Alabama the National Champion. Meanwhile Clemson ended their 2011 campaign losing 3 of 4 including a blowout in their bowl game.

Last year it was all about Tajh Boyd as he was 30-42 for 386 yards 4TD 0 INT as he was 14-18 on third down conversions. It's hard to think Clemson will be able to duplicate that considering their offensive line is experience a complete overhaul with 3 newbies as well they have lost 3 starters on the defensive line. To make matters worse Sammy Watkins who had 10 rec 155 yards in that game is suspended. There is just no way Boyd can repeat the success he had last year with 3 new starters on the offensive line and Auburn has a pair of ends that can be dominating in Corey Lemonier and Dee Ford to go along with 7 other starters that return on the defense.

Offensively Auburn will start Kiehl Frazier, but they should be able to run in this game considering how vulnerable Clemson is on the defensive line. They ran for 237 yards last year on 6.2 ypc look for that to happen again, but with new offensive coordinator Scott Loeffer there will clearly be more balance and that will benefit maybe one of the best TE in the nation in PHillip Lutzenkirchen. I think this line is derived off the public's perception of Auburn and Clemson. Last year Clemson lost on the road at South Carolina 13-34 while Auburn actually won on the road. That one game was a bad game and I'm sure Auburn has been motivated all summer long to take revenge on Clemson who is now 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on neutral fields while Auburn is 5-1 ATS.

Tulsa -1.5 2.2* PLAY
This is a screwy line on paper especially with Iowa State beating Oklahoma State last year right? Well I think the strengths and weaknesses match up rather nicely in this spot and even know Tulsa lost their QB they should be in good shape to be another good team. Iowa State on the other hand has no balance on offense and it's no secret they want to run the ball. That plays into the hands of Tulsa's defense that returns 7 starters. They return both seniors on the interior who may not be household names, but are stout and very physical. It's the same group that ranked 16th in allowing just 3.3 ypc. The QB position is in flux and Steele Jantz will get the start for the Cyclones, but I'm not trusting them considering they were 107th in completion % and 105th in QB rating a year ago. With Bufford and Jackson on the inside Tulsa should be able to keep Iowa State's run first approach in check.

Tulsa on the other hand starts Cody Green at QB, the Nebraska transfer has the experience to pick up where GJ Kinne left off. He's backed by a trio of RB's including Watts/Douglas who combined for 7.8 ypc and 1764 yards. While Iowa State has 2 of the best linebacker duo's int he country they also have just 1 starter along the defensive line returning. They were also last in the Big 12 with just 17 sacks on the year so Green should have time to create a balanced offense while the defense will be opportunistic again in 2012 leading to a win!

Syracuse +1 3.3* NCAAF EB play
This is simply a bad match up for Northwestern a team that lacks any sort of defense and things can be even worse for them with a lack of experience this year and a remade defensive line. Northwestern does have Kain Colter who is a beast, but seems to lack a throwing ability. That's too bad because that's where Syracuse is weak. Syracuse's strength will be against the run and that's where their advantage comes in because Northwestern struggled big time to protect the QB last year and will be found shaking it up quite a bit in this game or for the season along OL. That's never a good thing against a team like Syracuse which will bring the heat with lots of blitzing from their talented linebackers that have the lateral explosion of safeties and can cover ground quickly. That's bad news for Colter who plans to be a runner for most of this game. Unfortunately Northwestern lacks a balance and toughness on offense to take advantage of Syracuse's size.

Don't sleep on Syracuses offense although they may have lost running backs that rushed over 1,000 yards in back to back years they have a north and south runner in Jerome Smith and an actual QB that could pass in senior Ryan Nassib. The knock on Nassib is he takes too many sacks - 29 last year, but we spoke about Northwestern inability to get in the backfield. That will allow Syracuse to have balance on offense and that will make them very hard to beat at home. IF you remember this team handily defeated West Virginia at home. If you are looking for an x-factor tune into Syracuses's Ashton Broyld, the 6-4 athlete has freakish athleticism and will be found throwing, running and catching the ball on Saturday.

NC STATE +3 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD
16 starters return from the Wolfback team that won 6 of their final 8 games including 3 in a row against Louisville, Clemson, and Maryland to close the year out. This is the year Tom O'Brien has been building for and there is real potential to get to 10 starters. They have 4 starters returning on an offensive line and a NFL prospect in 6-6 QB Mike Glennon who completed 62.5% of his passes for 3,054 yards, 31 TD's and 12 interceptions last year. He'll face off against Tennessee team that is also returning 4 starters and features a 6-6 QB in Tyler Bray, but Glennon has proved himself more and my confidence is with him and the offense that surrounds him as they have more dpeth at running back with James Washington and Mustafa Greene now returning from an injury. More importantly TN brings in a new coaching staff on defense that is making some changes that could hurt them early in the season.

On the other side of the ball TN breaks in a new starter at the most important position LT in a sophomore who will make his first start. IT definitely hurts them that they also lost Da'Rick Rogers at WR due to a suspension and now Justin Hunter who is returning from an ACL injury goes up against an All-American CB David Amerson who had 13 interceptions himself last year. NC State may be more vulnerable up front, but TN has yet to proven they can run the ball on anyone averaging just 90 yards a game last year. It's likely Bray and the offense will look to pass, but awaiting them will be Amerson and the rest of the ball hawking secondary that surrounds him which are 3 seniors! Tennesse is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the ACC while NC State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8. Tennessee should be improved but this is just a challenging game on a neutral field in the season opener that will make them look bad.

Vanderbilt +7 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD
Vanderbilt lost 21-3 on the road last year against South Carolina, but a lot has changed since. So that you too can take Vandy seriously I'll give you some highlights from last year - they nearly beat Georgia and Arkansas at home last year losing by a combined 8 points. They were ranked 18th in yards allowed and they return 8 starters on offense with plenty of depth behind them and 7 starters on defense with an experienced secondary. IN that game they lost 21-3 last year they were on the road, Jordan Rodgers was not yet the starter and the offensive line was not healthy. For instance their best OL Wesley Johnson is back at his best position LT because of the health and depth of the line.

Speaking of Vanderbilts offense. They are a run first unit with Rodgers being called a dual threat QB as he had 420 yards rushing last year but the real talent is senior Zac Stacy who had 1,193 yards last year and 5.9 ypc and he's backed up by SEC freshmen of the year Warren Newman. Now South Carolina has a great defensive line when it comes to rushing the QB as they have two 1st round NFL picks in Clowney and Taylor at the end position but they were 45th vs. the run a year ago. Their 2nd rank pass defense will be vulnerable too with 3 starters gone in the secondary and they are also without their best corner Akeem Auguste who is out with a leg. This should do one of two things. Calm the agressiveness that DC Lorenzo Ward likes to come with or lead to big plays against an inexperienced secondary.

If you don't believe it's possible, Vanderbilt was actually #1 in the SEC in plays over 20 yards a year ago. So enough about Vandy's offense what about Marcus Lattimore shouldn't he be able to run all over a Vanderbilt team? He had just 77 yards last year in the game and I'm still not sold on how much he trusts his leg. Either way Vanderbilt can sell out against the run because they have an experienced secondary. I also do not think they'll have to worry about the passing game of South Carolina and this is a plus because it will also slow the game down. Connor Shaw has talent, but he also has a very young inexperienced offensive line that replaces 3 starters and he also lost Alshon Jeffrey to throw to. The receivers have plenty of speed but it's going to take a bit to get that chemistry back.

Not only will Vanderbilt be sold out and pumped for the first game but they hold a considerable advantage on special teams. They are one of the best in the nation in defending kickoffs and punts and I feel they'll dominate field position making it very difficult for a South Carolina team that was ranked 95th in passing last year and will be looking to do a lot of damage on the ground. It's hard to grind out drives in those situations.

ALABAMA -1 5.5* NCAAF POD
We were on LSU the first time around and if you watched the game you know Alabama would have been the right play as Bama's interception down the middle of the field on a jump ball that got picked off at their own 1 yard line was the difference in the game. That and the fact that they went 2-6 from FG's otherwise they had complete control of that game and revenge will be a huge advantage for this team and is probably the reason they are favorites despite playing in LSU's home state. I'll break down some key aspects to each team's statistics and strategy this year.

Quarterbacks & Pass Defense:
Jordan Jefferson gives LSU more offense and I expect him to get 90% of the snaps in the title game. Jefferson is known for not being super accurate, but he has converted over 60% of his passes thus far and was 6-10 vs. Alabama the first time, but Alabama should come up with the necessary adjustments as they held opponents to just 4.4 yards per attempts and 48.3% conversions and a 83.94 QB rating while picking off 12 passes and allowing just 6 passing TD's this year. AJ McCarron on the other hand got better with every game and was 16-28 for 199 yards in the first game. Bama did have two uncharacteristic turnovers one on a trick play when they let WR Marquis Maze pass which ultimately cost them in a game which had the feeling of them dominating. LSU's pass defense is solid and their corner backs are better than Bama's but I still give Alabama the advantage as LSU's pass defense allows 1 more yard per attempt at 5.4, 51.1%, and a 93.07 QB rating, but they only allowed 7 passing TD's and had 6 more interceptions with 18 on the season.

Penalties, Special Teams & Turnovers
Alabama is cleaner and penalized 2.2 times less than LSU on the season and they were penalized 6 times to LSU's 7. Alabama has one of the best coverage units and I doubt they let Tyrann Mathieu touch it. In the first game they dominated field position all game long so special teams did not seem to be the issue and both teams were even in TO margin which again giving the ball up two times was not like Alabama or LSU. I expect Alabama to have better FG opportunities and they'll punt before they try a long FG which should help them even more in field position.

Rushing Offense & Defense
LSU on paper had more rushing yards than Alabama in the first game but to me Alabama had much more success. LSU never allows a RB to get into a rhythm and I think that's a big deal. On the other side Trent Richardson is a beast and he's been here before. Against Texas the #1 run defense in 2009 he had 19 carries for 109 yards in the National Championship as a freshmen. In the first game he ran for 89 yards on 23 carries while Spencer Ware had 16 carries for 23 yards for LSU. Just like the passing defense of Alabama allowing 1 yard less per attempt, the Alabama Run defense is allowing 0.9 yards less than LSU and they have the better running game. Opponents have only rushed for 1st downs 3.6 times per game against Alabama's defense while they have rushed for 5.6 per game vs. LSU which will be key since both teams will want to pick up first downs on the ground.

3rd Downs:
In the match up it was Alabama that was 5-13 and LSU just 3-11. ON the season Alabama has the offensive advantage probably because they are more balanced with a more accurate QB in McCarron. They converted 48.7% on the year and 49.06% in conference games while LSU converted 46.84% but only 41.75% in conference games and converted 39.29% on the road and were 1-9 against Georgia in the SEC Championship game and in the first half they had 6 possessions and had 6 3 and outs. There is no better defense in the nation on third down than Alabama. Defensively Alabama is also the better team holding opponents amazingly to 25% conversions on third down and just 22.02 % in conference games. Meanwhile LSU holds opponents to 34.87%, but 40% on the road and 34.4% in conference play.

Red Zone:
Okay both defenses were outstanding this year. Alabama only allowed 17 attempts all year in 12 games and only 12 attempts in 8 conference games while LSU just as good 23 attempts in 13 games and 13 attempts in 9 conference games. Alabama is a bit better at holding opponents out of the end zone 35.29% allowing just 6 TD's all year while LSU allowed 12 in 23 attempts. Offensively both teams got there and this is one edge LSU does have scoring 72.13% of their 61 attempts, but they were 0-3 vs. Alabama the first time around and I expect Alabama's defense to continue that success which will out weigh the small advantage LSU has on getting the ball in the end zone.

Final Remarks:
LSU to me just relies to much on special teams and turnovers and that's really not where Alabama will make mistakes. We saw the offensive weaknesses of LSU in their last 2 games vs. Arkansas and Georgia in which they trailed 10-0 and 14-0 and the countless 3 and outs. They can't afford that to happen vs. Alabama but I don't know how they can avoid it. I give a small coaching advantage to Nick Saban he'll have his team ready to win this one after losing a heart breaker at home the first time around. He was able to get his team to put up 37 points vs. another top 5 defense in 2009 so I'm confident Alabama will win this game setting up a lot of controversy on why LSU had to play Alabama again.

[b]LSU/Alabama Over 40 2.2* play[/b]
[b]First points will be a FG +150 2* play[/b]
Both teams are among the best in the nation in red zone defense and I expect both teams not to want to make the first mistake early expect the game to heat up with some shots down the field and I believe this game goes over the total but as far as the first points of the game you can

NILL +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
Love Northern Illinois here first of all let's not get sucked into the rankings on Arkansas defense where they are top 20 in total defense rushing defense and scoring defense. First of all they haven't faced any offenses that are as balanced and as good as Northern Illinois with maybe the exception of Virginia Tech. On average they've faced a 74th ranked total offense while Northern Illinois is 9th. Even worse they have faced an average 82nd rushing offense from ypc aspect and Northern Illinois is ranked 4th in the nation and are averaging 5.75 ypc and it all starts with their veteran offensive line led by 4 seniors and 1 junior. Arkansas State does have 32 sacks, but Northern Illinois has allowed just 9 sacks. Chandler Harnish really has been the difference with his decision making.

I like Ryan Aplin too on the other side, but he's small and tends to give the ball away with 13 INT's on the year while Harnish 62.9%, 26 TD's and just 5 interceptions and a 156 QB rating which is the highest of any opponent that Arkansas has faced. The average opponent was ranked 81st while Harnish is 16th in the nation so you know he can pass the ball too.

Arkansas State will also be playing with an interim coach as their head man took the Ole Miss job. that should offset the fact that this game is closer to their campus than Northern Illinois. Also Northern Illinois gave the ball up less this year was penalized less and was better offensively on 3rd down 47.5% to 44.2% and in the red zone they got their more and scored more. They had 64 att in the RZ and scored 64% of the time and 73% on the road meanwhile Arkansas State got their 61 times and scored TD's 57.38% of the time. Getting off the field is pretty even Northern Illinois 37.5% and Northern Illinois 39.5% but they only allowed 33% in their last 9 games after a slow start. Despite missing two defensive starters today they still are better defense than the stat sheet says.

smu/pitt U47 (4.4* pod); SMU +4 (3.3* PLAY)
These teams are quite similar, both lost their star running back and have QB's that struggle that's one reason why I love the under in this one as both team's will try to win with their defense they simply do not have the offensive lines for continuous protection nor do they have the QB's that can lead a team down the field. In fact Pitt was the worst in the nation in sacks allowed with 56. SMU had 26 sacks, but their front line is a lot better than their ranking as they have faced a lot of quick throwing teams like Houston and Tulsa and TCU who just do not give up sacks in fact they faced an average opponent ranked 40th in sacks allowed. This is a team that can certain get to the QB and we will see that in this game.

Expect a lot of 1st and 10 running plays from Pitt and again SMU can stop the run they allowed just 3.5 ypc this season while Pitt also can stop the run allowing 3.36. SMU runs a bit better surprisingly out of the run and shoot, but they lack the experience against a defensive line that truly is stout. Their are advantages and disadvantages on both sides, but SMU has more advantages. For one they have their head coach while Pitt lost their HC to Arizona State. They also are more capable moving the ball through the air although they are more prone to turning the ball over I still will take my chances as JJ McDermott is a senior with two All Conference receivers in Cole Beasley and Darius Johnson. That's where I give SMU the edge in this game tomorrow.

Defense though will shine on both sides especially on third down, Pitt has dominated allowing 31.84% but they also are just 27% offensively on the road and defensively they're not used to seeing teams that can move the ball or even throw the Big East features some of the worst offenses in the nation and lack any true passing teams with the exception of WV, but still I see Pitt coming up with some sacks turning this game over to a field position and conservative approach on both sides. IN the red zone both teams struggle to get into the end zone and they are both allowing opponents not to get their either. Pitt allows 57.58% TD's, but just 33 attempts, and SMU 52.27% on 44 attempts. SMU's stat is particularly impressive considering they had to play some high power offenses such as Houston, Tulsa, Smiss, TCU, and A&M. This is a team that had high expectations, and they can live up to them with a win here and momentum going into next season.

smu/pitt U47 (4.4* pod); SMU +4 (3.3* PLAY)
These teams are quite similar, both lost their star running back and have QB's that struggle that's one reason why I love the under in this one as both team's will try to win with their defense they simply do not have the offensive lines for continuous protection nor do they have the QB's that can lead a team down the field. In fact Pitt was the worst in the nation in sacks allowed with 56. SMU had 26 sacks, but their front line is a lot better than their ranking as they have faced a lot of quick throwing teams like Houston and Tulsa and TCU who just do not give up sacks in fact they faced an average opponent ranked 40th in sacks allowed. This is a team that can certain get to the QB and we will see that in this game.

Expect a lot of 1st and 10 running plays from Pitt and again SMU can stop the run they allowed just 3.5 ypc this season while Pitt also can stop the run allowing 3.36. SMU runs a bit better surprisingly out of the run and shoot, but they lack the experience against a defensive line that truly is stout. Their are advantages and disadvantages on both sides, but SMU has more advantages. For one they have their head coach while Pitt lost their HC to Arizona State. They also are more capable moving the ball through the air although they are more prone to turning the ball over I still will take my chances as JJ McDermott is a senior with two All Conference receivers in Cole Beasley and Darius Johnson. That's where I give SMU the edge in this game tomorrow.

Defense though will shine on both sides especially on third down, Pitt has dominated allowing 31.84% but they also are just 27% offensively on the road and defensively they're not used to seeing teams that can move the ball or even throw the Big East features some of the worst offenses in the nation and lack any true passing teams with the exception of WV, but still I see Pitt coming up with some sacks turning this game over to a field position and conservative approach on both sides. IN the red zone both teams struggle to get into the end zone and they are both allowing opponents not to get their either. Pitt allows 57.58% TD's, but just 33 attempts, and SMU 52.27% on 44 attempts. SMU's stat is particularly impressive considering they had to play some high power offenses such as Houston, Tulsa, Smiss, TCU, and A&M. This is a team that had high expectations, and they can live up to them with a win here and momentum going into next season.

Like Arkansas here they are more balanced on both sides of the ball.

Clemson -2.5 -120 buy 1/2 5* NCAAF POD
I'm backing Clemson here their 2 losses down the stretch to South Carolina and NC St were without the glue of their offensive line in Phillip Price at LT. The 6'5 315lb tackle is healthy and ready to go and that should be the difference. We saw how dominating Clemson was against Virginia Tech this year and I think that talent shows up again tonight.

The key for Clemson is running the ball and this is not the same West Virginia defense of years past. They're 63rd in scoring defense in the Big East? They gave up far too many points to some bad offensive teams. On average they've faced a much less challenging schedule despite facing LSU in non conference ball, Clemson faced 2 SEC teams and their pass defense faced an average 58th passer rating team while WV faced an average 74th. Their run defense faced 47th average rushing offense and WV faced an average 69th. There is no comparison to offenses in the ACC vs. Big East. The health of Andre Ellington will be a key he's 100% and ran for 125 yards against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship. We all saw how Virginia Tech dominated the line of scrimmage vs. one of the best rushing teams in the nation last night in Michigan. If Clemson can run on Virginia Tech they can run on West Virginia.

West Virginia Rushing defense on paper gave up just 3.79 ypc overall, but 4.78 on the road they were highly inconsistent and gave up 38, 31, 49 points to 3 average Big East offenses in Louisville, Rutgers, and Syracuse and they haven't faced a QB and offense this good all year long maybe since LSU and they will have their hands full on 3rd downs which I'll get to in a minute. Clemson can also pass on West Virginia in my opinion the pass rush of West Virginia is not what it was in years past and again I love this offensive line and Tahj Boyd to hook up with all his weapons including Sammy Watkins and TE Dwayne Allen. Most of West Virginia's sacks came in one game 10 vs. Pitt and they had 17 in their other 11 games.

On the flip side Geno Smith has been excellent in the new offense only 7 interceptions 25 TD's and 65%. Probably the most accurate passer Clemson has faced, but they are one dimensional in the end and when you are one dimensional you have issues picking up 3rd downs. Clemson showed major holes in their run defense this year, but athletically up front they should be able to get Geno Smith. They have more talent up front and WV offensive line has under achieved big time and too often Geno Smith has been rushed allowing him not to pick up 3rd down conversions which to me is the biggest difference separating these two teams.

3rd down offense and defense. Clemson is 31st in the nation completing 44.61% of their 3rd downs and 48.48% in non conference. Now they go up against West Virginia who is holding opponents to 36.65% but a closer look tells me a completely different story. They allowed 45.88% on the road and They only faced two top 40 3rd down offensive teams in Syracuse 36th, and LSU 28th. Both converted on 3rd downs and destroyed West Virginia's offense converting 71% for Syracuse and 50% for LSU. Down the stretch they even gave up 52.63% conversions on third down to a similar type QB that they will face tonight in BJ Daniels and South Florida whom were ranked 87th in the nation in 3rd down offense. Take out Syracuse and LSU and West Virginia has faced an average 98th 3rd down offense. When they have played capable offenses they have failed time and time again. This is the same for their red zone defense which is worse than Clemson overall by 10% and they've allowed nearly 70% TD's on the road this year. Clemson's 3rd down and red zone defense are better in my opinion and West Virginia is just 38.41% converting 3rd downs. Look for Clemson to bring their excellent size and athleticism led by DE Andre Branch on 3rd downs which will turn the game.

Another hidden advantage is in special teams and turnovers. West Virginia is -2 and Clemson is +2. Not much of an advantage, but an advantage none the less. Kickoff and Punt Returns also an advantage West Virginia has allowed 24.52 ypr and 2 TD on kickoff's Sammy Watkins has the speed to bring it back at any point 26.27 ypr. Tavon Austin is good in his own right, but Clemson allows just 19.79 yards per return. In a game that should have a ton of points advantage Clemson. They are also allowing 1.5 yards less per punt return, have a higher FG%, and are averaging over 4 more yards per punt. West Virginia is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 vs. ACC and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Clemson is pumped up and following a great ACC Championship with a healthy offensive line should be ready to play well here.

Virginia Tech +3.5 -120 (5.5* NCAAF POD) I don't think you'll need it but buy the half point. Nobody thinks VT should be here, but they are in a BCS game and that should be motivation for them to show on National TV who Logan Thomas is. Michigan's defense is over rated in my opinion. We already saw how the Big Ten defenses are over rated on Monday it's because the offenses in the Big Ten just are not very good and the same can be true for Michigan's defense although statistically looks solid they really didn't face any crazy good offenses and when they played Notre Dame they were able to do whatever they wanted. Michigan's offense on the other hand can be stopped as they put up just 16 and 14 points in the two games vs. Iowa and Michigan State who play similar type defense to Virginia Tech. Actually it's scary how similar Virginia Tech is to Michigan State as they are 4th in sack % Mich St is #1, they are 6th in completion % defense and MIch St is 13th. They are 15th in opposing QB rating while Mich State is 21st. Even in run defense the parallels again are similar with Virginia Tech ranking 17th in ypc while Michigan State was 5th. Bottom line the ACC has some better offenses in my opinion and Virginia Tech is a better coached team that will have more to play for after their ACC Championship loss. The idea that Denard Robinson has improved his passing is an over statement he still only completed 18 passes and 14 interceptions. Virginia Tech's defense has allowed 50.1% and 14 TD and 15 interceptions. Virginia Tech plays pressure defense and will be able to keep Denard and the running game in check forcing him to throw. The key will be James Gayle who is now healthy for Virginia Tech and showed it vs. Clemson. Also it looks like LB Alonzo Tweedy will also return which should send Kyle Fuller back to CB which can make all the difference. Don't sleep on Vtech's offense Thomas is a huge QB he's shown to be very accurate and doesn't make mistakes. If the game comes down to which defense and which offense makes the plays it'll be the Hokies. They are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. winning teams and Michigan is 8-20 ATS vs. winning teams.

Stanford +4 (5.5* NCAAF POD) What a match up this is, but I don't see a Stanford team that again are under dogs to be scared of Oklahoma State or this offense. Andrew Luck pulled off a blow out last year defeating Virginia Tech 40-12. Now they face Oklahoma State and their 106th total defense. IN fact Oklahoma State has been able to stop the run or the pass allowing 5.03 ypc on the road this year. They'll have their hands full with Stephan Taylor and this offensive line of Stanford. Stanford up front on both sides could be the difference. They have two possible first rounders on the offensive line that has allowed just 9 sacks and pathed the way for the 20th ranked running game which has averaged 5.33 ypc. LT Jonathan martin and RG David Decastro. Stanford also has 38 sacks both are better than Oklahoma State who has 28 sacks and have allowed 11. The key stat I'm looking at though is sack % as Stanford is ranked 11th, the next best team they played was Texas A&M ranked 5th and they only won 30-29. Other than Texas A&M the big 12 is not loaded with teams that can get to the QB and it's no surprise that Brandon Weeden has only been sacked 11 times. At the end of the day I look at the more balanced team because Stanford has the look of a team that can stop Oklahoma's State's running game to as they have allowed just 3.11 ypc and 2.50 on the road this year. Stanford is just a little bit better they don't make the mistakes that Oklahoma State has forced other teams into in order to blow teams out of the building. Stanford just 15 total turnovers on the year and they are +6 on the season so don't expect Oklahoma State who has turned the ball over 22 times to be + margin in this one. Stanford also better on third down converting 52.17% to Oklahoma State's 50%, but it's again the defense that's making the difference holding opponents to 30.92% 28% on the road compared to Oklahoma State's 40.7%. Stanford is also better in the red zone converting 78.13% into TD's while Oklahoma State can be stalled 65% TD's.

Wisconsin +4.5 (4.4* PLAY) Both teams have identical offenses from a statistical perspective. They both have two of the nation's best running backs and are run first type of teams but can also throw with two of the more mistake free QB's. The difference between the two is speed and power. We know all about Oregon's speed and the challenge teams have to face when they play them and on the flip side Wisconsin is more about power on both the offense and defense. They'll hold the advantage in strength and in the past that is the one thing Oregon has had issues with as they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big Ten. They are also losers of 6 of 8 of their last games. Give a team to prepare for Oregon's offense and they've been able to come up with a great game plan. Let's look at the QB's. Wilson was behind only Robert Griffin in QB rating and put together one of the best season's ever with a rating of 191 as he had 31 TD and just 3 interceptions while completing 72.5% while Thomas was also solid 30 TD only 6 interceptions 61.4% 2,493 yards. Oregon gave up a ton of yard through the air this year and Wisconsin seems to have the edge in the QB and the pass defense ranking 3rd in pass defense and 22nd in pass rating defense Oregon was 32nd, but 86th in total pass defense. Also Wilson put his numbers up on better pass defenses ranked on average 62nd while Oregon faced an average 79th rated passer rating. I trust Wilson more than Thomas when the game is on the line. Run offense and defense this is where this game is really even because statistically Oregon is better, but Wisconsin has the ability to really beat up Oregon's front 7 for long drives and take this game over. Oregon averaged 6.53 yards per carry and Wisconsin averaged 5.48. Wisconsin did it against 59th ranked average run defense from a ypc perspective while Oregon did it against a 71st average ranking. Overall Oregon is better in run defense than Wisconsin but one could argue Oregon doesn't see as many run first offenses in the Pac 12. With all we have gone over these teams to me are too even and the advantages are stronger on Wisconsin side for one they are +16 in turnover margin and only 4.9 penalties while Oregon still good at +9 but are averaging 7.2 penalties. Also advantage on Wisconsin side converting 54.14% on third down to Oregon's 44.97%, defensively on 3rd down they are both even and in the red zone Wisconsin has gotten there 7 more times and have scored TD's 87% of the time to Oregon's 76% and defensively they have allowed opponents to get there 19 less times allowing just 57% TD's on 28 attempts while Oregon 47 attempts and 59.5% but 76.5% over their last 5 games has shown some weaknesses including giving up over 30 points to UCLA in the Pac 12 Championship game. Illinois a Big Ten team held UCLA to 14 points the other day.

Michigan State +3 +100 4* play Of the SEC teams in bowl season Georgia probably had the easiest schedule as they did not face Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas in the regular season and then they were exposed by LSU in the SEC Championship game losing 42-10. Michigan State also had a heartbreaking loss in the Big Ten Championship and won't be going to the Rose Bowl yet again. This is a more veteran team than Georgia and although they are not happy about losing that game they do remember coming out in last year's Capital One Bowl and getting destroyed by Alabama 49-7. This team is better and I think they have what it takes to win today. Let's take a look at both QB's because both are pretty good and can play at the next level starting with Kirk Cousins who is the more accurate of the two 65% opposed to 58.8%. Murray has 33 TD's to Cousins 24, but Cousins just 7 interceptions to Murray's 12. Both defenses these two go up against are stout in pass defense, but in my opinion Georgia is a bit over rated having faced just two QB's the entire season in Kellen Moore and Tenn's Tyler Bray both having good games. Georgia is just not used to facing accurate passing QB's and that's what Cousins is with Keshawn Marin and BJ Cunningham on the outside. Both defenses have shown an ability to get to the QB, but Murray has been sacked 13 more times than Cousins. There are some pretty good pass rushes in the Big Ten including Michigan State who was the #1 sack % defense in the nation and had 41 sacks. Georgia got it done often with interceptions and Cousins just doesn't make too many poor decisions even under pressure. Georgia's offensive line will have some real issues in this game and I give the edge to Mich State. Run offense and defense is probably a push, Statistically Michigan State is better allowing 2.9 ypc while Georgia allowed 3.5 and again got even more exposed in the SEC Championship game allowing well over 5 yards per carry. Michigan State on the other hand only allowed 1 team to rush over 4 yards per carry all season and that's pretty consistent. Michigan State's running game also came alive the last 3 games because of Le'Vion Bell who had averaged 5.45 ypc all year and got 7.56, 5.38, and 5.89 over his last 3 games. Finally special teams. We saw how that hurt Georgia in the SEC Championship game and Michigan State has a punt return threat in Keshawn Martin who is explosive averaging nearly 12 yards per return and Nick Hill over 26 yards per kick return. Georgia's kicking game too struggles 7-14 in 40+ yard field goals. I think Georgia overall is a bit over rated and a bit to young to come up with a win after a heartbreaking loss vs. LSU.

2.2* PLAY BONUS

3.3* play U46
To me this game is all about the run as neither team can pass the ball ranking 103rd and 96th in passing offense. Both teams are in the 40's ranked in scoring offense, but the defenses are also in the top 40. South Carolina can be run on a bit, but they're better than Nebraska as they have allowed 3.68 ypc on year compared to the 4.08 that Nebraska runs. Both pass defenses are ranked in the top 20 so you know this game will turn over to the rushing offenses keeping this a fast paced game. Give any defense time to prepare against Nebraska and they are going to have problems. They literally can't throw a lick, and only scored 7 points vs. Washington in last year's bowl game. South Carolina is used to run first offenses and will be able to keep Burkhead/Martinez in check while I like how South Carolina's QB Connor Shaw looked down the stretch completting 65.5% of his passes 12 TD and 6 interceptions and don't forget the talent he has on the outside in Alshon Jeffery. That should be the difference when it's all said and done this game goes under the total and South Carolina wins a nail biter.

Virginia +3.5 -120 buy 1/2 4.5* play
Auburn lost both their offensive coordinator and their defensive coordinator to Ark state and Central Florida. Plus they lose their top back in Michael Dyer in this one. Though Auburn always has depth at RB his leadership can't go unnoticed. Meanwhile it's a different story for Virginia who under Mike London has turned the program around. Of course they came up short with a chance to go to the ACC Championship losing 38-0 to Virginia Tech, but I think they've regrouped and I think they got a good match up in this bowl game and they'll be motivated to take down last year's National Champion.

Auburn juggles 3 QB's this year and none of them have been great. Virginia's experienced secondary led by Chase Minnifield and S Rodney McLeod should be able to shut it down. Auburn is 106th in passing offense and do most of their damage on the ground it will be critical for Virginia to be able to limit the big plays they gave up earlier in the year in this one. Fortunately Virginia did clean that up and are ranked 32nd in rushing defense. They allow just 3.8 yards per carry ranked 41st, and they are 24th in first downs allowed rushing per game which will be huge in 3rd and short situations. Auburn is 16th in rushing % running the ball 61.53% of the time. Virginia will have to run and keep the clock ticking themselves so they can hold up all 4 quarters.

Virginia's rushing attack led by Perry Jones and Kevin Parks averaging 5.02 and 4.69 ypc should be able to pick up yards with a down hill approach where Auburn is weak. If they start to try to take it outside they won't be successful. Auburn has allowed 5.05 ypc this year on the road and 4.66 overall. They haven't dominated a single game in run defense and it's the reason they are ranked 99th. I also think Virginia can have some success passing the ball on Auburn as Auburn may be 44th in passing yards allowed they are 91st in opponent passer rating allowing 142 QB rating. Virginia is just better and more balanced offensively and defensively. The reason they are not favored is because they are from the ACC.

Virginia 39.44% on third downs compared to Auburns 35%. That's key because Virginia can stop the run and the pass and are holding opponents to 33.15% on third down and even better 29.6% on the road while Auburn is allowing 53.73% conversions on the road. Auburn also has just 31 attempts in the red zone compared to Virginia's 42. Avoid the big play and Virginia should be able to hold this offense in check. Defensively Virginia is among the best in red zone defense holding opponents to 47% TD percentage and 41% over their last 8 games while Auburn is allowing more attempts and 63% TD's. Virginia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and Auburn is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. the ACC. They lost earlier in the year to Clemson 24 to 38. I see a closer game but with Virginia coming out on top 24 to 21.

Illinois -2 (3.3* play) To me this game is an easy one to decide mainly because the game starts up front and Illinois has the advantage on both sides. UCLA offensive line is mediocre at best and Illinois had 36 sacks and 92 tackles for loss they are physical and have top tier talent look for Whitney Mercilus to have a huge game. UCLA only had 13 sacks which will allow Illinois some breathing room for the first time in quite a while. During their 6 game losing streak they've faced defenses with an average sack % ranking of 43rd in the nation and UCLA is ranked 111th. Look for Illinois to get back to running the ball first as UCLA has given up a ton this year on the ground and look for them to get the best offensive player on the field involved now that they have some time in A.J. Jenkins who has 84 receptions for 1196 yards on the year. UCLA is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 as a dog and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 overall.

Utah +3 -115 (3.5* play) Utah/GT U50 (2.2*Play) This game is all about Georgia Techs 3rd rushing offense vs. Utah's 7th ranked rush defense and I like Utah to win that battle for one they are used to the triple option from their days in the Mountain West facing Air Force. Secondly Georgia Tech Los when they faced top run defenses putting up 21, 7, 26, and 17 to 38th, 54th, 16th, and 21st run defenses losing all 4 vs. Georgia, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Virginia. Utah has the talent to stop the up the middle runs with their NT 325lb Star Lotulelei who anchors the defense up front and that is usually the key to the triple option, take away the first option. Georgia Tech is 3rd with an 80% run percentage while Utah kicked their average up too 66% over their last 3 games with their injury to Wynn Hays has taken over and although I think he plays a huge part in this game passing the ball because he's been able to digest more of the playbook I think they will try to do most of their damage through Joh White IV who had 1405 yards rushing this year. Georgia Tech struggled in run defense this year allowing 4.70 ypc on the road and 4.53 overall. The one thing I like about Hays at QB is he does not turn the ball over 0 INT in his last 5 games Utah is +10 and +20 in their wins with 32 gained. Georgia Tech is also +2 in the turnover margin but run more of a risk if they get forced to pass it as Utah has had the tendency to come up with interceptions. Also Georgia Tech known for going for it on 4th down and Utah is #1 in the nation allowing just 26% conversions. They are also stout on 3rd down defense 38% while Georgia Tech is 44% on the season and 49% in their last 3 games. That of course carried over to the red zone where they have given up 75% TD's over their last 3 games while Utah was at just 33% over their last 4. Utah is 36-15 in their last 52 as a dog while Georgia Tech is 1-6-1 in their last 8 and winless in bowl games under Paul Johnson.

Utah +3 -115 (3.5* play) Utah/GT U50 (2.2*Play) This game is all about Georgia Techs 3rd rushing offense vs. Utah's 7th ranked rush defense and I like Utah to win that battle for one they are used to the triple option from their days in the Mountain West facing Air Force. Secondly Georgia Tech Los when they faced top run defenses putting up 21, 7, 26, and 17 to 38th, 54th, 16th, and 21st run defenses losing all 4 vs. Georgia, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Virginia. Utah has the talent to stop the up the middle runs with their NT 325lb Star Lotulelei who anchors the defense up front and that is usually the key to the triple option, take away the first option. Georgia Tech is 3rd with an 80% run percentage while Utah kicked their average up too 66% over their last 3 games with their injury to Wynn Hays has taken over and although I think he plays a huge part in this game passing the ball because he's been able to digest more of the playbook I think they will try to do most of their damage through Joh White IV who had 1405 yards rushing this year. Georgia Tech struggled in run defense this year allowing 4.70 ypc on the road and 4.53 overall. The one thing I like about Hays at QB is he does not turn the ball over 0 INT in his last 5 games Utah is +10 and +20 in their wins with 32 gained. Georgia Tech is also +2 in the turnover margin but run more of a risk if they get forced to pass it as Utah has had the tendency to come up with interceptions. Also Georgia Tech known for going for it on 4th down and Utah is #1 in the nation allowing just 26% conversions. They are also stout on 3rd down defense 38% while Georgia Tech is 44% on the season and 49% in their last 3 games. That of course carried over to the red zone where they have given up 75% TD's over their last 3 games while Utah was at just 33% over their last 4. Utah is 36-15 in their last 52 as a dog while Georgia Tech is 1-6-1 in their last 8 and winless in bowl games under Paul Johnson.

Northwestern +10 (5.5*NCAAF POD); Nwestern +300 1* bonus Texas A&M might be the best 6-6 team, but they just can't be thrilled to be playing in this bowl game after a disaster of a season and it doesn't help that they fired their head coach and interim coach Tim DeRuyter has already accepted the job at Fresno State. Just seems like their minds have been elsewhere as reports have been that their practices have been flat and they lost one of their teammates in a car accident so it's unlikely they are 100% focused. Northwestern on the other hand has come on strong as QB Dan Persa finally looks to be 100%. Persa will be playing in his last game and you have to think he's motivated after missing 2 of Northwestern's last few bowl games. Northwestern has always been competitive in bowl games as they lost last year to Texas Tech by 7 as +7.5, by 3 to Auburn as +9 and by 7 to Missouri as +14 covering each of their last 3 dogs. Texas A&M is 0-5 in their last 5 bowls. Again they come in as heavy dogs to a team that just has more talent, but if anyone can stick with them offensively it's going to be Dan Persa who should be able to continue his nation leading pass efficiency as Texas A&M is 113th in passing defense. Northwestern can also run the ball whether it be with their running backs or QB/WR Kain Colter who is averaging over 5 ypc and should provide a spark on multiple plays on Saturday. Northwestern's defense also improved big time this season towards the end, of course they did not have to face competition like A&M, but they'll take their chances and I think Tannehill will throw a few picks and Northwestern will win the turnover battle. Lastly if you are worried about Northwestern getting rushed by the nation's best pass rush no worries Persa is great at avoiding blitzes and he finally seemed healthy down the stretch as they were only sacked 3 times over their last 4 games and that includes 0 against Michigan State the #1 sack % defense.

Iowa +14 (3.3* Play) Oklahoma has not been the same since they lost Ryan Broyles. Landry Jones has thrown 5 interceptions and 0 TD in the last 3 games without him. They scored 38 vs. Baylor and we saw their defense Thursday night, 26 vs. Iowa State and 10 vs. Oklahoma State's poor defense. They've also haven't been the same on 3rd down converting just 36% in their last 4 games vs. teams that were to be honest nothing special in third down defense - ranked 65th, 34th, 111th, and 68th. Iowa should be able to stop the run and that should help them in this game. I just don't see Oklahoma being too pumped up for this game and I see them walking through the motions meanwhile Iowa has to be amped to be playing a team that was supposed to go to the National Championship this year. Iowa has won 5 of their last 7 bowl games and seem to play their best against these big time schools going 3-1 vs. the SEC and they beat Georgia Tech and South Carolina in the past 2 years. Iowa's James Vandenberg will have an opportunities vs. Oklahoma's 83rd ranked pass defense. He's got the talent at WR and the experience. Vandenberg was pretty efficient 59.4% 23 TD's to 6 interceptions. Also Iowa only lost 16 balls this year for a +2 turnover margin meanwhile Oklahoma lost 28 and we have seen the trend in these bowl games with the turnovers.

[b]Iowa State +1 (3.3* play); U45 (4.4* play)[/b]
Both of these teams are pretty even although the statistical ratings might not show it this will be a defensive game despite Iowa State on paper being ranked 99th overall. Iowa State has faced 4 top 10 offenses this year and 6 top 20 teams. Meanwhile Rutgers has faced 1 top 20 team and gave up 41 points to them. Yankee Stadium is where this game is but Iowa State has been poised on the road all year long they came east and defeated Uconn a common opponent that Rutgers lost to 22-40 in the last week of the season. That was an emotional loss because Rutgers was playing for a chance at the Big East crown but lost and it's been a long time since that game, but I think it's still hurting. Meanwhile Iowa State is just thrilled to be here and have had a great year including an upset of Oklahoma State.

Let's talk rushing offense and defense. Clearly this is where this game is headed considering both QB's are among the worst in the nation in pass efficiency offense and Iowa State rarely wants to pass the ball considering Rutgers makes most of their game changing plays when teams drop back to pass. Since Rutgers is vulnerable in run defense I think that's where they will attack. They allowed 3.86 on the season but 4.34 on the road and gave up chunks to teams that really never were good at running the ball all year and it came at the end of the year. Louisville 102nd 3.3 ypc on the year ran for 5.5 ypc, WV 80th 3.8ypc on the year ran for 5.68 and North Carolina earlier in the year ran for 4.55ypc and they are ranked 72nd. Iowa State has capable runners and a talented offensive line to run behind they are ranked 36th in rushing yards and came on strong at the end of the year rushing for 215 yards against a Kansas State run defense that is statistically better than Rutgers. Rutgers meanwhile had one of the worst rushing offenses on the year 2.62 ypc and Iowa State is more vulnerable their so I expect Rutgers to really have a balanced attack because they will have more luck running the ball as Iowa State's pass defense is the real deal.

Iowa State can match up with Mohammed Sanu they have talented LB to help on the short routes and CB Leonard Johnson should do a good job here. On the road this year they held opponents to 53.9% on the road 6 TD and 8 interception I think you will see a hesitant Rutgers team to really open up the passing game considering they were barely over 50% on the year as far as pass completion %. Another reason why I'm liking the under in this game. Add in the fact that both teams play great on 3rd down and in the red zone on defense and the incapable offenses I feel it's a great way to see the under.

3rd down defense Iowa State is 38.33% and remember the offenses they faced, While Rutgers 33% facing mediocre offenses. Offensively Iowa State is much better 42.33% which is another reason I give them the edge to win the overall game because Rutgers is 37%. The same holds up in the red zone. Both teams getting their similar amount of times 48 and 46 attempts Rutgers 54% TD's and Iowa State 58%. Defensively Rutgers has allowed 46.15% while Iowa State allowed 48%, but over their last 4 games allowed just 26.6% vs. some solid opponents.

[b]Iowa State +1 (3.3* play); U45 (4.4* play)[/b]
Both of these teams are pretty even although the statistical ratings might not show it this will be a defensive game despite Iowa State on paper being ranked 99th overall. Iowa State has faced 4 top 10 offenses this year and 6 top 20 teams. Meanwhile Rutgers has faced 1 top 20 team and gave up 41 points to them. Yankee Stadium is where this game is but Iowa State has been poised on the road all year long they came east and defeated Uconn a common opponent that Rutgers lost to 22-40 in the last week of the season. That was an emotional loss because Rutgers was playing for a chance at the Big East crown but lost and it's been a long time since that game, but I think it's still hurting. Meanwhile Iowa State is just thrilled to be here and have had a great year including an upset of Oklahoma State.

Let's talk rushing offense and defense. Clearly this is where this game is headed considering both QB's are among the worst in the nation in pass efficiency offense and Iowa State rarely wants to pass the ball considering Rutgers makes most of their game changing plays when teams drop back to pass. Since Rutgers is vulnerable in run defense I think that's where they will attack. They allowed 3.86 on the season but 4.34 on the road and gave up chunks to teams that really never were good at running the ball all year and it came at the end of the year. Louisville 102nd 3.3 ypc on the year ran for 5.5 ypc, WV 80th 3.8ypc on the year ran for 5.68 and North Carolina earlier in the year ran for 4.55ypc and they are ranked 72nd. Iowa State has capable runners and a talented offensive line to run behind they are ranked 36th in rushing yards and came on strong at the end of the year rushing for 215 yards against a Kansas State run defense that is statistically better than Rutgers. Rutgers meanwhile had one of the worst rushing offenses on the year 2.62 ypc and Iowa State is more vulnerable their so I expect Rutgers to really have a balanced attack because they will have more luck running the ball as Iowa State's pass defense is the real deal.

Iowa State can match up with Mohammed Sanu they have talented LB to help on the short routes and CB Leonard Johnson should do a good job here. On the road this year they held opponents to 53.9% on the road 6 TD and 8 interception I think you will see a hesitant Rutgers team to really open up the passing game considering they were barely over 50% on the year as far as pass completion %. Another reason why I'm liking the under in this game. Add in the fact that both teams play great on 3rd down and in the red zone on defense and the incapable offenses I feel it's a great way to see the under.

3rd down defense Iowa State is 38.33% and remember the offenses they faced, While Rutgers 33% facing mediocre offenses. Offensively Iowa State is much better 42.33% which is another reason I give them the edge to win the overall game because Rutgers is 37%. The same holds up in the red zone. Both teams getting their similar amount of times 48 and 46 attempts Rutgers 54% TD's and Iowa State 58%. Defensively Rutgers has allowed 46.15% while Iowa State allowed 48%, but over their last 4 games allowed just 26.6% vs. some solid opponents.

BYU +1 (4.4* NCAAF POD) BYU is ranked 16th in overall defense and although Tulsa has 23rd ranked offense have they really face a team of BYU's defensive caliber? Yes, two teams UCF and Boise ranked 15, 16th while BYU is of that same being extremely balanced. Overall though Tulsa has faced a 72nd average total defense. They did not fair well scoring just 24 and 21 points in the Boise and Central Florida games. To me BYU flipped their season with their change at QB to Riley Nelson although Jake Heaps played well down the stretch we could see both QB's tomorrow afternoon as I think they'll both expose Tulsa's 118th ranked secondary and 89th total defense. Both teams are good at stopping the run BYU I think will really give Tulsa a run for their money I think they'll surprise them on how big and strong they are up front. They only allowed 2.95 ypc on the road this year. I think the fact that both teams can stop the run that this game gets put in the hands of each QB and GJ Kinne has been good but when it comes to big games he's come up really small. Let' sbreak down the pass defense a little more because BYU really is much better despite Tulsa's ranking being so hlow they have faced some pretty good offenses so they're not as bad as they seem, but still I take BYU and their QB in this match up. BYU is 40th in pass efficiency defense while Tulsa is 71st. 20th in QB rating and Tulsa is 63rd. BYU is 19th in yds/att defense Tulsa 74th. I trust BYU's pass defense more and they have allowed 14 less sacks. More numbers on 3rd down BYU is just so much better on both sides of the ball. Offensively they are converting 53% of the time and an incredible 64.5% over their last 7 games. Their defense is giving up 36.97% on the year and 33% on the road while Tulsa is 42% on offense and 43% on defense. These same trends follow us to red zone offense and defense and this is where the game will be decided. Both teams are pretty even in offense getting to the red zone 51 and 53 times a piece. BYU has converted 61% into TD's and Tulsa 58.49%. Defensively though BYU is #3 in the nation allowing just 42% TD's on only 33 attempts meanwhile Tulsa has allowed 48 attempts and 58.33%. Bronco Mendenhall is 4-2 in bowl games with BYU.

I think these under dogs are going to start to roar and this is fitting Steve Sarkisian won last year as double digit dogs against a good Nebraska team with a mobile QB and now he finds himself as +10 dogs at some places and I

Notre dame +4 5.5* play + notre dame +155 3* play notre dame under 47 3.3* play
I

bonus 3.3*

Under 49 (4.4* play); California +4 (3* play)
I like Cal tonight overall because they are the more balanced team and have very good talent on defense to be able to stop a one dimensional attack.

5* ncaaf pod
Love Toledo a team that nearly went to Ohio State and won, but allowed Ohio State to come back to win 27-22.

Louisville +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Love Louisville tonight they can eliminate an aspect of NC State and make them one dimensional and that's the running game which is ranked 107th anyway. Give Strong 4 weeks to prepare for a one dimensional offense that can't protect their QB's and I see Louisville which has been an under dog all year coming up with another big win. I mean they put up 34 points in back to back games to close out the regular season against two very talented defenses in South Florida and Uconn and now they play another talented defense in NC State. Now take a look because NC State has had a much easier schedule to get to this point as they've faced two FCS foes and the average defense as far as total yards allowed was 60th compared to Louisville's opponents which came in at 45th. Louisville had to go up against 5 top 20 rushing defenses from ypc stand point and they themselves are ranked 9th. NC State did not play too well vs. Cincinatti ( Big East Opponent) and FSU who are the closest in scoring defense and rushing defense both in the top 10 too. NC State lost both those games by a combined 14 to 78. Now Florida State and Cinci had a better pass defense and more explosiveness on offense in the regular season so I do not expect a blow out here, but I do expect Louisville, a very young team to benefit big time from these extra practices and they'll continue to do what they do which is win as under dogs. NC State's biggest strength is taking the ball away they're ranked 6th, but Louisville only turned it over a total of 19 times this year and they faced Uconn #3 in takeaways and Rutgers 12th and they won both of those games.

Western Mich +3 (3.3* play)
This game is pretty dead even so it only makes sense to take the under dog.

North Carolina +6 (4.4* NCAAF POD); UNC +210 (1* bonus) To me this game is simple. Which team can stop the run and turn the other into a one dimensional team and to me at least the answer is obvious North Carolina. Both teams are quite similar with talented defensive lines and talented sophmore QB's, but the injury to Henry Josey from Missouri went down it was a huge loss as he was averaging over 8 yards per carry. Missouri hasn't been the same. When they played Kansas at the end of the year they averaged just 3.5 ypc on 47 carries and Kansas was last in the nation in run defense from a ypc statistic allowing 6.1. North Carolina has more of a power running game with Giovani Bernard ranked 23rd nationally with 102 yards per game. Last year Missouri got gashed by a power running game in their bowl game and while I think they're more equipped to stop it this year I think they'll have a better day on the ground than Missouri. Missouri is ranked 40th in ypc allowed while North Carolina is ranked 15th. This game should be put into the hands of both talented sophmore QB's in Bryan Renner and James Franklin. Their numbers are very similar and they'll both face struggling pass defenses in UNC 90th in yards allowed, Missouri 91st. Renner however is the guy I'm taking as he's much more accurate #1 in the ACC 68.8% compared to Franklin 63.3%. Renner plays with the poise of an upperclassman and Missouri lacks a true field stretcher with most of their throws coming under neath dinking and dunking where UNC can take some chance to make stops. Meanwhile Renner has Dwight Jones - 6-4 225 who had 79 receptions 1119 yards and 11 TD's. Renner is also averaging 1.3 more yards per attempt. Which QB will have more success in the red zone? To me again advantage to the Tarheels. UNC and Missouri both got to the red zone similar amount of times. Missouri 51 times and UNC 46 times, but Missouri converting 64% into TD while UNC at 72%. Defensively UNC again holding the advantage allowing 4 less attempts this season and holding opponents to 10% less TD's 45 to 55% in the red zone. This is a huge advantage considering both teams were just 60% on field goals this year. In the end both teams are pretty even. UNC is 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a dog while Missouri is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 on neutral fields. Missouri won't have as much of an advantage here and I think they under estimate UNC's skill expect some talented match ups and one of the better played bowls of the young bowl season.

Nevada +8 (4.4* POD) Over 57/Nevada +14 (2.2* teaser) Love Nevada and I think a lot of points get scored tonight as both teams have balanced offenses and are int he top 15 in scoring points. Souther Miss coach Larry Fedora is headed to North Carolina but oddly enough administration is letting him stay to caoch I don't know where his motivation is for this game nor do I know what it is for the team after they upset Houston in the Conference Championship, but look for it to have an impact on this game. First do not sleep on a WAC team as LA Tech nearly upset both Houston and Smiss losing by a combined 3 points and Nevada had a 20-3 lead over LA Tech in the 4th quarter before losing 24-20. I think Nevada's offense is more explosive and is converting 49.14 % on 3rd down while Smiss is at 43.5% both teams are the same defensively on 3rd down and Smiss gets much worse on the road 46%. Red Zone action, both teams have gotten there 55 times this year and Nevada 60% of the time turns them into TD's while Smiss 54.5%. Also Nevada is allowing 9 fewer attempts by opponents into the red zone. Game will be played on turf and Smiss is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on turf while Nevada is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as dogs.

Arizona State +14.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Arizona State is a time that really lost a lot down the stretch after starting 6-2 and being nationally ranked. Their defense turned south, but they continued to score points and that's why I like them still tonight. On the shoulders of Brock Osweiler I think he'll be able to score enough points to cover this spread. Why would Arizona State be pumped for this game? Despite not going to a BCS or even in their conference championship this team is playing a top 10 team so defeating them would send the seniors out on a high note and this is a senior laden team. Dennis Erickson stepped down or fired or whatever will coach his last game. I believe preparation will be at a premium. Not many people know their last game or their last hoorah but Erickson in this situation does. He's got an impressive resume from his Miami days and his days in the NFL and I believe he'll have some special things for Boise tonight that will allow them to cover the spread. On the flip side Boise had just 14 sacks in their last 11 games and they allowed 10 TD passes in a 3 game span vs. UNLV, TCU, and SD State. Osweiler runs the 10th ranked passing offense and should cause fits for Boise defense. Boise of course is an offensive machine behind Kellen Moore's 41 TD passes he has not lost a beat all year long despite losing his top two WR to the NFL Draft. AZ has the talent up front to get into the backfield and stop the run. Boise only ran the ball 4.54 ypc and just 4.22 in their last 5. That's productive but not enough to dominate a game and cover this spread. Arizona State at one time was the #1 team in the league in sacks and forced turnovers and they did finish with 29. I think the outstanding LB Vantaze Burfict who quit on his team in the last game will be highly motivated and even motivational to his teammates. I do expect to see some of that momentum on Arizona State's side throughout this time. Will it be enough to win? I doubt it, but if they can get back to where they were earlier in the year on 3rd down defense holding Oregon 3 for 11 and holding various other opponents under 30% they can win this game. On the year they have held opponents to 34% conversions and even their red zone defensive TD% allowed is lower than Boise 53% to Boise's 64%. Secret weapon would have to be kick returner Jamal Miles. He's got returns of 98 and 95 yards and a punt return for a TD of 78 yards look for this to be an advantage in this game. Arizona State is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 as a dog 10.5+ while Boise just 0-6ATS in their last 6 as favorites 10.5+.

L.A. Tech played some quality teams and won 7 straight down the stretch.

If you have been following me this year you know that I

ULLAF +4.5

One team is thrilled to be in the New Orleans bowl and the other is disappointed as they had higher hopes for 2011, but it