Texas Tech +135 3% play 

Iowa STate +3 4.4% play 

Auburn -3.5 2.2% play 

TEmple +13.5 1.1% 

Lafayette -3 3.3% play 

VA TEch -12 2.2% play 

Miss State +5.5 5.5% POD

ucf -3 2.2% play 

Louisville +17 3.3 %play 

Pitt +14 buy  half point 4% pal y

oVER 51.5 1.1% PLAY 

Houston +5.5 3.3% 

Clemson -14 3.3% play 

Georgia -12.5 2.2% 

Syracuse +2 1.1% 

Virginia Tech +4.5 2.2% play 

Texas +3 2.2% play

I will take the more experienced QB who is less likely to make big mistakes in this game.  Oklahoma is not nearly as dynamic as years past, and starting a red shirt freshman in Spencer Rattler, who has been great number wise, but he really does not have a lot of help around him.  From his offensive line, running game, or defense.  What happens is he presses late, and tries to do it all when the game is on the line.  It leads to costly turnovers.  Texas is desparate for a win here, and Tom Herman knows it.  Herman has been a great coach as a dog throughout his career, and now that this has ticked up to +3, with 80% of the $ on Oklahom from one source, I'm a buyer on Texas.

LOuisville -4.5 2.2% play 

Houston -6.5 2.2% play 

Iowa State +7.5 1.1% fre ePLay

Arkansas +17 3.3% play

Miss State is not only in a major let down spot after upsetting last years National Championship LSU as a 14 point dog, but that leads to a very inflated line in the early season going, that I just don’t agree with.  75% of the tickets are being placed on Miss State based on what they saw a week ago, and the final score in the Arkansas/Georgia game.  Both teams here are breaking in new head coaches, and Mike Leach has made his statement on the 2020 season, but it shouldn’t be a complete shock when you consider LSU lost both of their coordinators, 15 players to the NFL, multiple opt outs, and their coordinators brought in completely different systems in a shortened off season.

Arkansas was impressive for a bit against an incredibly good Georgia team.  I really like what this Arkansas team did by bringing in Sam Pittman who brough over OC Kendal Briles form FSU, and Barry Odom as their DC (formerly Missouri).  Arkansas has veteran players on both sides of the ball including Florida transfer Feleipe Franks.  Worth noting is there have been just 7 teams in the SEC who won as a 14 point dog in the last 10 years, and those teams are just 1-6 SU & ATS the following week.

Missouri +13 3.3% play 

West Virginia +115 3% play 

LA Tech +24 2.2% play 

Under 2.2% 

South Carolian +4 3.3% play 

Under 2.2% play 

Oklahoma -27.5 1.1% play 

Florida -13.5 2.2% 

Kentucky +7.5 3.3% play 

Georgia Tech / Syracuse Under 52.5 2.2% play 

2% PLAY 

Louisville -130 3% play 

Louisville to me was more impressive in their win over a C-USA opponent than Miami was, and Miami has to travel here.  I get Miami has D'Eriq King, and Miami is getting a lot of hype now, but there are still a lot of questions for Manny Diaz and if he can be an average coach.  Scott Satterfeld, has more head coaching experience at this point, and in my opinion is the better coach.  Miami is also still breaking in a new offensive system under a new OC, and it's still going ot take time for Miami to learn it.

Miami also just 2-4 in road games last year, while Louisvilel was 4-2 last year at home with their only losses coming to Clemson and Notre Dame.  Louisville did lose 52-27 to Miami last year, but that was on the road they were -3 TO margin, but still out gained Miami 496 to 449.  I believe Louisville who will have some fans in attendance should be motivated to seek revenge, and Miami will be sent back to Florida at 1-1.

Georgia Tech +7.5 2.2% play

Normally you'd want ot fade a team after a double digit upset on the road, but here we have a unique situation with Georgia Tech returning home, and is over a TD under dog against a non-power 5 team.  I think it certainly catches their attention, and I believe they played better than the final score indicated against Florida State.  Meanwhile, you have UCF who has not played a game yet.

Jeff Sims will get to start at home here, and the freshmen QB was really impressive throwing for 277 yards, and adding 64 rushing yards.  He seems like a real leader, and I expect him to keep his team in the game. 

On UCF's sideline they lose some talent on defense, but bring back the majority of their starters including QB Dillon Gabriel, but their offensiveline is very inexperienced, and we saw Geoff Collins have his defense ready against a FSU offensive line a week ago.  I think we could see more of that here.  As I mentioned last week when we picked Georgia Tech to cover, 2nd year head coaches in the Power 5 are 55% ATS as a dog.  Georgia Tech also the slowest team in the nation last year and they should opt to do that here going up against UCF who wants to go fast.

Middle Tennessee +125 2.5% Dog of the Week

Troy has a lot of weapons back on offense, but there are a few things brewing here.  They have to break in a new QB, it is their first game of the season, after a non-typical year for practice and preparation. I expect some issues leading to turnovers.

On the flip side Middle Tennessee got to play, albeit against a non-schedule game against Army, which we benefited from in week 1.  MTSU has now had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and we are getting line value, because of what happened to Middle Tennessee in our only data point of 2020 for both these two teams.  I think that game against Army was an outlier, and we have value on the home dog here, in what should be a great game as the two renew their storied rivalry of the Battle for the Palladium.

GA TEch +13 3.3% play 

Under 53.5 2.2% play 

Arkansas State +13 2.2% Play

This line opened up at +10 and has steamed to +13, and I'm going to fade that 3 point line move and come in on the dog.  If you fade steam moves of 2+ points in week 1 over the last 3 years, you would go 58% ATS, 69-50!  We are getting line value in the number. 

Also, Kanasas State's 0 spring practices, breaking in a completely new offensive line, and their strategy to hold onto the ball and slow the game down (124th in plays per game last year), should lead to a shortened game, making the 13 points more valuable.  The total has also dropped 4 points from 58.5 now down to 54.5.

Arkansas State played last week, they also had 11 spring practices, and covered against a much better Memphis team a week ago.  They were driving to cut the game to 6 points at the end of the game, but covered the spread despite having 3 turnovers.  Bonner/Hatcher combo at QB has worked so far and Blake Anderson seems totally focused on this season, and I could see a potential upset here if Arkansas State can win the turnover battle and get off the field on some third downs. 

UNDER 2.2% PLAY 

Navy +1.5 2.2% play 

Arkansas State +18.5 2.2% play 

Army -3.5 2.2% play 

There is line value with an open at 5.5 dropping to 3.5.  I always like to fade line movement in the early season, as there are many unknowns, and when you fade that line movement you actually get line value.

Middle Tennessee was supposed to play Duke in week 1, and then possibly Troy, but they found out just 3 weeks ago that they will face Army.  Now 3 weeks to prepare for the option seems like a long time, but this group and this coaching staff has not seen the triple option since 2013.  Middle Tennessee gave up 200+ rushing yards 12 times over the last two years and went 3-9 during that span.  They also were 0-6 on the road last year, and their QB Aster O'hara who had a good year last year had a QB rating 40 points lower on the road than at home.  He also has to operate as his top two RB just opted out for the 2020 season.

Army likely won't have any guys opting out or quitting on their brothers, and it's a huge advantage in my opinion for them to be home in this uncertain times.  Jeff Monken is a guy I typically like to back when he's a dog, but as a small favorite against a team that hasn't seen the option, and has question marks on their defense, I think we are getting value here as Army should be able to control the game.

Clemson +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Southern Miss +8 3.3% pla y

Tennessee -3.5 2.2% play

You may be able to get a better # live.  Tennessee's deep threat WR is suspended for the first half so if this is a game early you may be able to get a better # live or at the half.  No guarantee on that though, which is why I'm taking it now.  Tennessee's average recruiting class is 12 over the last 3 years compared to Indiana's 44th ranking.  Indiana has had an impressive season with 8 wins their most in some time, but it is smoke and mirrors.  Outside the Penn State game where I believe they caught Penn State at the perfect time following their first loss of the season this team really did not impress me.  This is a team that lost to a bad Michigan State team, and only averaged 23.8 poitns per game against top 50 defenses.  Here they face a top 50 defense that played even better down the stretch.  Indiana was 1-4 vs. TOP 50 Defenses beating only Northwestern who they played at home, and were +3 TO's, and Northwestern was one of the worst teams in the P5 this year if not the worst.

Tennessee has always showed up in bowl season, and have dominated bigger and better teams from the Big Ten beating Nebraska in 2017 by 14, beating Northwestern by 39, and Iowa by 17 in 2015.  On paper it appears that Indiana has a very good defense, but they rank 69th in passing explosive defense, while Tenn ranks 6th.  Their 54th ypp defensive rank comes against an average offensive rank of 81st, and they faced many of those teams with backup or even third string QB's, Purdue, Nebraska, Northwestern among those.  I think Indiana will have issues with the physicality and speed of Tennessee in this game, and they are highly motivated under Jeremy Pruitt to show it off, and build into the 2020 season.

Boston College +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

Just 25% of the money coming in on BC, because they are without their head coach, and AJ Dillon also not playing.  Dillon's backup David BAiley, is a brusing RB at 240lbs, that the team is excited for.  Bailey actually had more yards per carry than Dillon and still rushed for 816 yards.  He will be key in this game where the weather is going to play a factor.  Expect some wind and rain here, and with both teams running the ball over 60%, handicapping the running game is very critical.  Jeff Hafley, the new BC coach will also be in attendance, which is always a good thing for the players who play in a game like this.  They typically want to impress their new HC.

Boston College has been able to run the ball against everyone but Clemson and Notre Dame, who have superior talent to Cinci.  They faced six top 50 rush defenses and they averaged 226 yards per carry.  While Cincinnati ranks 27th in ypc, they rank 47th in rushing success defense, and a lot of their success was at home where they allowed 2.66 ypc, 4.52 ypc on the road.  They faced 5 top 30 rushing offenses like Boston College and allowed 195.8 yards per game and 4.74 ypc which is about 90th in the country.  They went 2-3 in those games, and in their two wins they actually were fortunate as they forced 9 TO's.  BC doesn't turn the ball over with just 11 on the year. I think this will be a close game, because BC will have success running the ball.  Cinci is also a very good rushing offense with a mobile QB, and BC's defensive weakness is in the secondary, which also makes this a good matchup for BC.  They rank 33rd in rushing success, defense.  They don't rank well from  YPC perspective, but that's because they are prone to giving up explosive runs, which Cinci really is not built on. 

This will be a close game, I don't see BC losing by more than a TD unless they turn it over and with 11 on the year, while Cinci has turned it over 20 times I don't expect they will lose the TO margin.  They also are top 10 in fewest penalty yards per game while Cinci ranks 129th.  I wouldn't be shocked to see BC pull the upset in front of their new HC. 

Georgia -4 3.3% play 

Wisconsin -140 5.5% MAX POD

Alabama/Michigan O60 3.3% 

Auburn -7 3.3% play 

Texas +7.5 3.3% play 

Wyoming -7 2.2% play 

Kansas State +110 5.5% NCAAF POD

Kentucky +3 -120 buy 1/2 3% play 

Cal -6 2.2% play 

Personally I think Cal is the play here, with Illinois getting over 60% of the tickets and money at the moment, because the mentality of Big 10 > PAC 12.  PAC 12 actually was 3-0 SU & ATS vs. the Big 10 this year before Iowa clobbered USC in their bowl game.  The PAC 12 5-3 SU & ATS vs. other P5 schools while Big Ten went 2-7 ATS.  This game is being played in Santa Clara, CA where Cal will certainly have a crowd edge.

Offensively both teams are run first teams that want to protect the ball, but Illinois likes to play with pace ranking 23rd in the country while Cal ranks 90th, and I think that could come back to bite them in this game against Cal's defense.  Cal needs to run the ball, and I have reason to believe they can.  Illinois has allowed 8 of their 12 opponents to run for 150+ yards this season, and when Cal can do that they average 27 points per game and are 4-0 with wins by 13, 10, 14, and 1 over Washington on the road.  When Chase Garbers has been in the lineup for Cal this team exceeds expectations with +18 yards per game vs. what opponents typically give up and they are 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS.  Illinois offense ranks 115th in ypp, and they have been outagained by 90 yards per game.  They convert just 33% on third down, and rank 92nd in ypc going up against the 20th ranked team.

On paper it seems like both of these defenses are even, but Cal ranks 41st in YPP allowed and that comes having faced an average ypp offense ranking 46.7.  Compare that with Illinois who ranks 57th, against an average opponent offense ranking 78.25.  Illinois played Connecticut, Akron, and Eastern Michigan in their non-conference slate compared to Cal who faced Ole Miss on the road, an SEC team.  Illinois defense has been fortunate at times with the turnovers, but Cal has turned the ball over just 9 times all year long, and they have only lost 4 fumbles.  I don't think Illinois can rely on winning the TO battle here, and when they don't they are 0-3.

Ohio State +3 -120 buy 1/2 

LSU -13 3.3% 

Iowa State +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Air Force -2.5 3.3% play 

Michigan STate -3.5 3.3% play 

Miami -6 4.4% POD

BYU -125 4.5% NCAAF POD

Marshall +17.5 2.2% play

I get why this spread is so high.  The oddsmakers are questioning how many points Marshall can score here, and I could see why, but I think Marshall’s defense will keep them in the game, and UCF has been known this season to give up some points after they get big leads.  Marshall does have the ingredients to give UCF some issues, as they have a top defensive unit. They are strong vs. the run ranking 35th, and they also have the 18th ranked pass rush, which could allow them to force UCF’s QB into some mistakes in this game.  UCF only played two top 30 run defenses and lost both against Pitt, and Cincinnati. In their wins UCF rushes for 5.69 ypc, and their losses they average just 3.10. Again that’s not a huge reason why I’m backing Marshall. 

I’m backing Marshall, because Doc Holliday cares.  He’s 6-0 SU & ATS in bowl games. Marshall also recruits the state of Florida heavily, making this a monster game going against a Florida team in Florida.  In fact Marshall has 31 players who are from the state of Florida, and they beat both Florida teams this year. Since 2013 they are 14-3 SU against Florida teams or in games played in the state of Florida including 3-0 in bowl games.  

UCF’s offense also relies heavily on explosive plays.  They are not overly efficient in the red zone, and Marshall is top 40 in explosive plays allowed. 

Washington -3 -115 5.5% NCAAF POD

This line dropped tonight, and I think it may be a setup for buy back. I don’t expect it to get to 2.5 or anything so I’m fine paying the extra 5% to grab -3 now.  It’s not often that you have a P5 team with more motivation, but that is exactly what we have here. Washington at 7-5, did not have a great year, but they played extremely well when they were supposed to.  They had double digit leads in the second half against Oregon and Utah, beat USC by 10, and crushed a BYU team that Boise lost to. This will be Chris Peterson’s last game as a head coach, and there are no distractions as they have named the DC Jeremy Lake as the replacement.  Even more motivating is the fact that Washington faced Peterson’s former team Boise. Boise State, on the other hand at 12-1 does not want to be back in Vegas. Their head coach has already made several statements about the MWC needing to do a better job marketing itself so it can get better bowls, and he did interview for several P5 jobs.  He’s also going to be calling the plays as OC Zak Hill took the same job at Arizona State. 

When we look at the X’s and O’s you can look at the common opponent BYU, but I look at the fact that Boise has not faced many top defenses.  They faced one team in the top 50 in pass defense, and that was Wyoming who held them to 20 points on their own field. Wyoming lost that game because they have no offensive balance, which is not a problem Washington has.  Wyoming’s great defensive #’s have also come against an average offense ranking 91st in YPP, while Washington’s have come against an average YPP offense ranking 46th. Their 31st pass defense has come against an average passing offense ranking 46th so this team is battle tested.  The only other time Boise faced a defense similar to Washington was Marshall, and again Marshall had a far trip to play on a short week and held Boise to 14 points at home in their own building. I think Boise and this conference is overrated, and the #’s back it up when you look at the fact that the Mountain West went 7-11 ATS vs. other G5 conferences and were -3.7 mov ATS, which was the biggest gap of the G5 conferences.  Meanwhile the PAC12 which gets a lot of shit was actually very good this year they went 5-3 ATS vs. P5, and they also went 10-7 ATS vs. G5.

Washington will be playing this game without their LT, and TE, but they have depth, and their young defense which has played so well will have the extra time to prepare which can only help them.  We saw signs of Washington being that top tier team in the PAC12 several times, and Jacob Eason looks the part with a big arm, and Washington the better team in TO margin, and special teams in this match up.  They have the motivation, and the better coach, and they have faced a far superior schedule, with a blowout against Boise State’s only loss on the schedule.

SMU -3 2.2% PLAY / Under 70 2.2% play

We all know the headlines of Lane Kiffin leaving for Ole Miss, and the defensive coordinator takes over the coaching duties here, which I feel can only hurt this FAU offense, which helps with the under bet.  They also have scored 3 less points per game when facing a defense that is top 50 in stopping the run, which SMU is, and SMU also capable of getting after the QB ranking top 10 in sack%.  The weather is also not going to be great for either team's offense as there is going ot be rain, sustained 16mph winds iwth gusts in the 20's, and we have a high total of 70.  SMU, also playing a top defense here, and I expect with the weather they will have to lean more on their running game, and FAU has been good all year long in the red zone allowing just 52% TD's, and with their defensive coordinator taking over for this game I expect the defense to be the side of the ball that tries to win this game.  They rank top 50 in YPP allowed,a nd rank 38th in QB Rating.

The side of SMU is hard to ignore considering AAC conference went 6-0 SU and ATS with an average MOV victory ATS! of 22.5 points.  Sonny Dykes also 2-1 ATS in bowl games, and the home field advantage for FAU is not an advantage.  The crowd did not show up to the conference championship, and I think this has a team like FAU less motivated playing a bowl game in their own stadium can't be very excited.  FAU also relies heavily on winning the TO battle.  +20 in wins and even in losses, and SMU has just 6 TO's lost on the road.

Kent State +215

Most of these dogs that cover the spread win the game, and I think this one is worth a shot with Kent State who has never won a bowl game, and has to be more excited to be here.  We also have an inflated line due to several factors. One being the fact that Jordan Love, the Utah State QB is going to the NFL, but Dustin Crum, the Kent State QB has had a far better season with 18 TD’s and 2 INT’s compared to Love’s 17TD’s to 16 INT’s.  They have gone against a similar QB defense as Kent State has faced an average 67.45 opponent QB defense, compared to Utah State who has faced 63rd. The other factor here is that the MAC has done poorly in bowl games. The MAC actually went 1-0 vs. the Mountain West in the regular season and Ohio beat SD State 27-0 in the Frisco Bowl last year.  Utah State’s head coach Gary Andersen is also overrated in my opinion and is just 1-2 ATS in bowl games. Both of these conferences did not do well vs. other G5 conferences. MWC went 7-11 ATS -3.7 ATS MOV, while the MAC went 6-10 ATS -1.68, but Kent State has gone 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. non-power 5 opponents.

Utah State’s defense that is better than Kent State which is getting them in the favorite role has not been impressive.  They don’t rank top 50 in ypc allowed, or QB Rating, or sack %, and their defense allowed 47.95% conversions.

The biggest reason I’m pulling the trigger in this game is the fact that Kent ranks 36th in TO margin, and 17th in special teams both better than Utah State.  They also have a top 50 pass rush, and that comes with Auburn, Arizona State, and Wisconsin on their schedule and on the road. Utah State struggles to protect Jordan Love ranking 104th in sack % allowed.  They have also gone 1-4 vs. top 50 pass rush defenses, and have 12 TO’s lost including 10 INT’s. Win the TO battle cover the spread, but in this spot I’m betting on Kent to win the game. This is a high total and honestly there just is not as much value betting a dog in a game where two teams play as fast and score as many points.  I don’t think the spread will matter in this one so I’ll take the extra value at +215 at 5dimes.

Buffalo -6.5 2.2% play 

Buffalo back to a bowl game for the second year in a row with unfinished business.  They’ll play in the Bahamas against Charlotte making their first bowl appearance after a great and surprising year.  The wind will be a huge factor in this game with 20+ mph winds expected with 30mph gusts, but both of these teams prefer to keep it on the ground anyway rushing the ball 60%+ of the time, so it comes down to which team can run the ball better.

Buffalo is my pick, because they have the defense ranking 7th in run defense against an average opponent ranking 69th in ypc offense, they also rank 2nd in the nation in fewest 10+ yard runs allowed, while Charlotte comes into the game ranking 108th in ypc allowed, and 107th in 10+ yard plays allowed.  Buffalo is very strong in the trenches, and I think they’ll wear down Charlotte by the end of the game, as they are capable of staying on the field for long stretches, and Charlotte’s defense has shown issues getting off the field allowing 43.17% third down conversions by opponent despite facing an average 3rd down offense ranking 37.56.  Buffalo meanwhile has one of the best third down defenses allowing 32.45% against an offense that ranks 38.13%. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 1 team to run for more than 4 ypc, and Charlotte is 0-3 when they are held under 4 ypc. Charlotte has allowed 10 of their 12 opponents to rush for more than 4 ypc. This clearly translates over to the red zone where Buffalo has held opponents to 51% TD percentage while, Charlotte gives up 66%.  Another edge to Buffalo here.

Charlotte does have a better passing game, but this is where I think the weather actually helps Buffalo more.  Buffalo’s pass defense which is good is helped by a great pass rush ranking 7th in sack %. Charlotte will likely be in plenty of third and longs, and I like the chances of this Buffalo pass rush forcing some turnovers.  Charlotte played 5 top defenses, and were -5 TO in thos games throwing 8 INT’s, and they went 1-4 in those games. Western Kentucky game really seems similar to me as Western Kentucky’s offense doesn’t look good from a statistical profile, and I would argue Buffalo is better, because they have two 1,000 yard rushers, and a QB that is 6-1 ATS since taking over.  Western Kentucky beat Charlotte 30-14, and Buffalo’s run defense is better. Buffalo also takes care of the ball. They were negative TO Margin in only 2 games this season.

Special teams is probably cost Buffalo at least a couple games, but here they don’t have a huge disadvantage.  Buffalo ranks 130th in special teams efficiency, but they face a team that ranks 125th. Worth noting that C-USA went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS vs. the MAC in the regular season, and the MAC has been bad in bowl play going just 22-43-4 ATS since 2005, but these are trends that are out there, and the oddsmakers are still making Buffalo a favorite here. 

Army +10.5 3.3% play

First of all I want to start by saying this is one of my favorite games of the year.  It's one of the few you can say and clearly see when watching that every snap matters to both teams, and every single player is giving it max effort. 

Army had a very dissapointed season, but this game means much more to them than any bowl game they were going to be playing in.  Army could not win the close games like they did last year, but they still only got beat by more than 10 points just one time, which was their last game against Hawaii, game they were -2 TO's, and 1-4 on 4th down, while also having to play multiple QB's.  Kelvin Hopkins, is the key to this Army offense, and he will play today, and that's great news for this offense.  Army has not lost to Navy since Hopkins has been here.  Army's offensive/defensive #'s are very similar to last year they ranked a combined 61.5 in YPP offense and defense agaisnt a combined average opponent rank 80.55.  This year they faced a tougher schedule with an average opponent rank 72.45 for YPP offense and defense while their average was 69.5.  So we are dealing with the same Army team on offense, and defense.  

Navy has dramatically improved their offense, but while Army has faced a tougher schedule than last year Navy has faced an easier schedule and in their step up game against Notre Dame they did not show up, while Army stepped up and nearly beat a Michigan team that crushed Notre Dame.  Turnovers were a big reason why that all happened, and they will likely be a key in this game here today.  I favor Army as they have been great at winning the TO margin or not losing it since Jeff Monken came aboard.  Their last 6 games vs. Air Force or Navy they have been +1, +4, +1, 0, 0, -1, -1 in TO margin.  This season they are even in fumbles gained and fumbles lost, while Navy is -4.  Army will need to win the TO battle again to have a shot at winning this game.  Army has better ratings in power success rate on offense and defense ranking 13th, and 45th, while Navy ranks 74th and 125th!  Army also ranks #1 in stuff rate offensive line, while Navy ranks 45.  However, on defense it's Navy ranking 41st, and Army ranking 101st.   Stuff rate is just % of carries stopped at or before the line of scrimmage which is a key ingredient to stopping triple option.  Army's offense doesn't allow many defenses to do this and that helps them stay ahead of the chains, but their defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, but they know how to stop Navy's offense, as they were right in the game against Air Force.

Army against Air Force came down to Army's inability to convert on 4th down.  They were 1-3 on 4th down in the close loss, and that's expected when they had to play the game with Hopkins.  In the 3 game winning streak Army is 4-6 on 4th down against Navy.  Navy did beat Air Force and their statistical profile appears much better compared to Army's game, but Army was on the road while Navy played at home.  This spread is a 17.5 point move from last year, and I don't think Navy is 17.5 points better than last year.  Where is Navy's big impressive win?  They beat Tulane, SMU, and Air Force.  These games have been close the last 5 years, and I don't see Jeff Monken, a coach I really respect letting his team lose by double digits.  

Ohio St / Wisconsin Over 56.5 1.1% Free Play

When these two teams played last weather was certainly an issue for both offenses, and it won't be here playing on turf in a dome.  Wisconsin played agressively last week, and it is certainly something they'll need to do here and I think their offensive line holds up better than it did @ Ohio State where Chase Young wrecked the game with 4 sacks.  Ohio State's pass rush is just not as good on the road with a 16% sack rate at home and 8% on the road.  I think Jack Coan can throw on the early downs, and we saw Wisconsin's running game at times pick up some chunk yards.  Michigan put up 27 points in last week's game, and I think Wisconsin scores into the 20's here.

Ohio State's offense likely won't be stopped by Wisconsin who struggles to stop the run against a unit that has a running QB.  We saw it in the first game, and we saw against Nebraska.  Justin Fields is not a guy you can just try to load the box again, he has great accuracy and touch on the deep balls. I think Ohio State wants to win this game and win big to keep that #1 spot in the playoff and I think points will be plentiful. I think they score into the 40's again. I want to back Wisconsin, but their TO issues are a huge question going into this game.  I think the total is a better bet here.

Georgia +7 5.5% NCAAF POD

This is not a popular play, which makes me feel even more comfortable playing.  We really are buying low on Georgia and selling high on LSU.  I'm aware of the injuries, and player suspension from Pickens for the first half, but all of that has been incorporated into this line.  When I look at the matchup I really don't see a huge disparity in these two teams.  Really the difference is LSU's top 5 offense has faced a weak schedule of defenses ranking on average 69th, and Georgia's top 5 defense has faced a weak schedule of offenses ranking on average 75th in YPP.  Georgia's offense ranks 33rd, while LSU's defense ranks 28th.  Those are the weaknesses of this team, but Georgia faced an average defense ranking 50th, compared to LSU's defense facing an average offense ranking 65th.  Georgia has gotten it done all year in a conservative old school style, that just is not sexy to the typical bettor.

LSU's schedule has been fairly easy.  Even their tough games were not as tough given the situation.  They hosted Auburn and Florida.  Florida played Auburn the week before and had several defensive injuries.  They faced Texas A&M at home and A&M was playing in back to back road games having faced Georgia the week before.  They faced Alabama off a bye, and Alabama had a bye too, but this Alabama defense was just awful, and LSU again faced Alabama with a rusty Tua coming off an injury and it showed early in that game as Alabama turned it over twice.  LSU really did not have a tough road game all year and their home away splits are mind boggling.  Their red zone offense which scored TD's on 91% of their attempts in the red zone has just a 59% TD% in 5 road games.  Georgia's red zone defense is exceptional 38% TD's allowed.  Defensively LSU has struggled 50% at home, but 71% on the road.  Their run defense has been particularly alarming allowing 4.96 ypc on the road comapred to 2.66 at home.  They allowed a QB Rating 46 points higher on the road vs. home.

Jake Fromm, still had a great season despite having to face on average a pass defense ranking 45th.  He has his hands full here again against a talented LSU secondary, but he plays behind the #1 offensive line in the country.  He has good group of RB's, and he makes good decisions.  Threw 0 INT's in 11 of the 12 games.  He had 1 bad game against South Carolina in questionable weather.  I think Georgia will be able to put up points, and move the ball on LSU's defense, and they'll have an excellent game plan.  This is arguably the worst spot for LSU all season facing a team that had an easy game the week before.  Not having to leave their home state.

At the end of the day Georgia has been here before.  They're playing in their home state, 3rd year in a row in the SEC Championship.  They held Alabama 10 points under their season total a year ago, and Auburn 27 points under their season total.  They have a QB playing his third SEC Championship game, and Georgia turned the ball over zero times the last two years.  In 5 games this year against top defenses they have a grand total of 1 TO lost.  LSU on the other hand has 2+ TO's in 4 of their 12 games and they have turned it over in 8 of their 12 games.  I think Georgia gets one, and that might be the way they win this game.  I think Georgia will have a shot to win this game, which means you'd see Ohio State vs. LSU, and Georgia vs. Clemson in the college football playoff, which is the way it should be.

Cinci +10 @ -120 buy 1/2 2.4% play / Cinci +295 1% play 

The situation coming into this game is the fact that these two teams played each other just last week at the same location.  THat only favors Cincinnati who didn’t need to win the game, but I came away impressed either way. Teams since 2005 have played each other in back to back weeks just 3 times, and the dog has gone 3-0 ATS.  Memphis has all the pressure having lost in the Championship game the last two years, and they’ll have the Cotton Bowl game on the line. Everyone loves this Memphis team, but I can’t figure it out they did not have to face UCF, and in their non-conference schedule they did not face a team that has a winning record in Ole Miss, South Alabama, FCS opponent and LaMonroe and Ole Miss at the time was not as good as they were to close the season.  Meanwhile, Cincinnati played UCF, and beat them which was something Memphis could not do in recent years. They also played 3 of 4 bowl teams in their non-conference schedule and faced the #1 team in the country in Ohio State, and they faced another team playing in their conference championship, and Marshall who almost got into their conference championship.

In last week’s game Cincinnati has to be pretty confident considering they got down 17-3 after the first quarter and outscored Memphis 21-17 the rest of the way.  They gave up a kickoff return TD to start the game, which was really strange considering they have the 15th ranked special teams efficiency unit. They also turned the ball over 3 times in the game, which they hadn’t done all year and they played with a backup QB making his first start.  They’ll get their starter Ridder back in the game, but at least they know they can go to Bell who has the bigger arm as he played better after the first quarter.

Cincinnati has a very balanced team, they are good on offense, but recency bias will say otherwise.  Their defense which has faced 5 top 30 rushing offenses including Memphis allowed 28ppg in those games, and when you take Ohio State out, since they really are on another level they have allowed an impressive 23.75 ppg, and when we factor out the kickoff return TD they gave up to Memphis that number against top 30 rushing offenses drops to 22ppg.

Memphis offensively has shown struggles against top defenses.  They have 8 turnovers in 4 games against top 40 yards per play, which Cinci ranks.  Against top 50 run defenses they average 33.2ppg, which is 8.3 points below their season average.  That # drops to 32.3 when they face teams with a top 50 rushing and pass defense, but when you take away their kickoff returns the offense is only responsible for 27.67 points per game.  

Memphis defense does have vulnerabilities, and that comes against the run.  Last week they gave up 180+ yards on the ground. Now they have done well giving up just 24.8ppg against top 50 rushing offenses, but Cinci gets to add their QB Ridder back into the mix, which makes the rushing offense that did so well last week more challenging to prepare for.  I think Cinci has more success, and they’ll score into the 20’s again.

CMU/Miami Ohio Under 54.5 3.3% play

We have an inflated total here in my opinion due to the fact that Miami Ohio just gave up 41 points to Ball State, an offense that is very similar to Central Michigan, but Miami Ohio really had nothing to play for in the game and their QB got hurt.  Central Michigan on the other hand has scored 40+ points in 5 of their last 7 games, which will get an inflated total as 6 of their last 7 games have gone over the total.

You have to factor in that both teams are bringing a top 50 defense to this MAC Championship game, and Miami Ohio has one of the worst offenses in the country ranking 109th in yards per play, but they are in the MAC Championship game because of their defense.  Central Michigan vs. top 50 defenses have averaged just 10.67 points per game. Miami Ohio has a balanced defense against the pass, and run, and they rank 14th in sack %. Central Michigan has averaged 40.5 points per game in their other 8 games, but that was against an average YPP def/ ypc defense, and opposing QB rating ranking 99th in the country.  

Miami Ohio has struggled very much this season on offense and their QB Gabbert got hurt in last week’s game. I think he plays, but even with him in the game this offense is not very good.  Against top 50 defenses they are just 1-3, averaging 16.5 points per game. Their one win was against Buffalo at home where they scored 34 points thanks to forcing 4 turnovers. They have only scored 30+ points twice, and in both games they forced turnovers with a combined total of 7 turnovers forced.  Now it is possible Central Michigan might cough up the ball with a nation leading 23 fumbles on the year, but I would think they feel they can win this game if they don’t turn it over and I expect a conservative approach because of that.  

This total is saying we will have a 34-27 final, but I don’t think Miami Ohio can score that many points, and I think Central Michigan will struggle at times in this game.

Baylor +9.5 3.3% play

Really nothing has changed my opinion if anything I am more confident in Baylor when I played them over Oklahoma a few weeks back as a POD as they nearly upset Oklahoma.  You can read that full write up here - https://freddywills.com/pick/7303/oklahoma-vs-baylor-4-4-ncaaf-pod-guaranteed-or-back-192-147-116-784-l-339-ncaaf-4-bankrol.html

Obviously this game is on a neutral field, and we have a 4 point move, and you'll hear a lot of guys that focus on only the #'s tell you that you have to play Oklahoma.  I played Oklahoma last week, and felt lucky to get a cover.  This team is just not the dominant team they have been in recent years, and I really hope they don't wiggle their way into the Championship game.  I think Baylor can play with revenge, and confidence.  They literally should have beaten Oklahoma, but their offense had several mistakes in the second half including dropped passes, a fumble after a long run, and they just couldn't get off the field on third down allowing Oklahoma to stay on the field the entire second half.

This is a new game, and I'm really impressed with how Baylor turned around the next week to completely dominate Texas at home winning 24-10, and then Kansas, a team that nearly upset Iowa State the week before.  I think Baylor is still playing with a ton of confidence while Oklahom seems like they are not playing with as much confidence turning into a run first team, and maybe that's better for Jalen Hurts, but they are going up against a top 25 defense that can stop the run and pass.  They play cover 3, and can get pressure with their front without blitzing.  I'm aware that Cee Dee Lamb didn't play in that game, but he really hasn't been himself since with 2 receptions, and 4 receptions.

For Oklahoma to win it took them going 12-18 on third down, Jalen Hurts threw a season high 4 passing TD's, and they ran the ball 52 times for 4.38 ypc, but didn't get a rushing TD.  Baylor will have a counter in this game, and Jalen Hurts is going to make multiple mistakes that could cost Oklahoma the game. I would not be shocked to see Baylor win this game at all.  In fact I put a small amount on Baylor to win the National Championship at 160 to 1 this week.  They would be the only 1 loss team to avenge their loss and if they do I think they get in.

Oregon +7 -125 4.5% play / Oregon +210 1% play

I was hoping for a +7 to come up, but I don't think we see it at all. So I'll buy this to +7 and 2 of the 3 books I use has this at -125.

**Situation 

Utah wins and many think they go to the CFP PLayoff.  I’m not as sure about that. Oregon wins and they go to the Rose Bowl, so motivation is not going to be a problem for either side.  If anything I give the edge to Oregon who really can play this game pressure free, and Utah has all of the pressure in the world on them.  Utah 8-0 ATS their last 8 games chasing the spread each week for the playoff committee. If you want to back them you are going to pay a premium. 66% of the best and 63% of the money are on Utah.

*Weather

Expecting a lot of rain, and 12-15mph wind with 20-27mph gusts.  Many are going to tell you that it favors Utah style of play, but I would argue that Oregon has a QB that can play better in that type of weather.  Justhin Herbert grew up in Oregon, Tyler Huntley in Florida. It rains about 60 more days a year in Eugene Oregon vs. Salt Lake City, and they get about 30 more inches of rain.  Oregon also runs the ball more than they pass and people forget about that, and they have the better offensive line which we will talk about later. The total has dropped 6 points, but the spread has only gone up in favor of the dog.  Every half point matters more when you get a 6-7 point drop in the total due to weather.

*This Year vs. Last Year

These two teams met last year.  Utah beat Oregon at home as a 5.5 point favorite by 7, and they did it without Tyler Huntley or Zach Moss.  They were the luckier team recovering 2 of the 3 fumbles in the game otherwise the game was very much even and Justin Herbert played well completing 20-33 for 288 and 3 TD’s.  He does fine against man coverage.

Oregon’s team actually improved more agaisnt the same schedule as last year.  They improved from 59th in ypp offense to 16th, against a slightly weaker schedule than last year, but their defense jumped from 46th to 9th against a tougher schedule.  Utah on the other hand has faced a significantly lesser schedule to this point compared to last year’s team, and I think that’s why their statistical profile looks great, but I don’t see that much has changed.  For instance, last year Utah ranked 75th in YPP, but they faced on average a defense ranking 46th in ypp. This year they rank 11th, a massive jump, but it has come against an average 83rd ypp defense. Defensively, it’s another dominant unit ranking 7th in YPP allowed against a decent schedule of offenses averaging 65th, compared to last year’s squad that ranked 19th against an average 57th unit.  

To me both teams obviously improved, but Oregon improved more, but Utah did not have their starting QB/RB in last year’s game and still won.  So I would expect not much of a change in the line, because Oregon has improved more. The only difference is they scheduled Auburn and lost. A slip up at Arizona State, while Utah slipped up at USC.  I think Oregon just lost later in the season, and people remember that more. Utah lost at USC, to USC’s 4th string QB.

Matchups

First lets start by Oregon and Utah have 8 common opponents.  Utah has done better +25ppg, vs. +16ppg for Oregon. They are +214ypg vs. +84ypg, but Utah has a better home field advantage in the elevation so some of their stats are going to naturally look better.  What I care about was their common road games against quality opponents @USC and @Washington. Oregon went 2-0, and Utah went 1-1. Utah could have gone 0-2, they really should have lost the Washington game, and the same with Oregon at WAshington.  They were both almost identical in each game in total yardage, and rushing/passing differential.

Utah’s passing game has been efficient, they only throw it 35% of the time and they rank 6th in QB rating, and that’s largely thanks to the fact that they faced an easy schedule opponent defenses ranked 86th on average.  They faced 1 top 50 passing defense, but that unit did not have a top pass rush or top rushing defense. In this game Oregon brings top pass defense ranking 5th, a top pass rush ranking 25th, and a run defense ranking 19th.  Utah’s passing game is not explosive at all as good as Tyler Huntley has been he has not been tested this year, and he lost his favorite target on third down in Covey for the season. It hasn’t hurt him yet, but it might show up here, because.

Utah’s rushing attack ranking 44th is good behind Zach Moss, but not great.  That has come against an average run defense ranking 73rd. Once again this is not an explosive rushing offense, and to win a game against a very balanced team you will need explosive plays. Utah has just 17 rushing plays of 20+ yards on the season.  Oregon has allowed just 8 all season long which is good for Top 10.

Oregon’s passing game which ranks 9th like Utah has faced a very weak schedule average opponent averaging 80th in opponent QB Rating.  They ranked 45th last year against an average defense ranking 70th, so they have actually improved, and Herbert had a great game last year against Utah on the road as I mentioned earlier.  Utah’s pass defense is legit ranking 8th, but they have struggled at times this year. Both the USC and Washington games come to mind where they gave up over 300 yards passing 7 TD and 3 INT’s.  Herbert is better than both of those QB’s and he also takes care of the ball more. I think Utah could have some issues here.

Oregon’s rushing offense is actually better than Utah’s.  While they don’t run as much they are still efficient ranking 38th, and it comes against an average defense ranking 65th.  They play behind a very experienced offensive line, and it shows. They were able to punch in 2 rushing TD’s in the Auburn game earlier this year on a neutral field which is really impressive given what that Auburn defensive line has accomplished this year.

X-factors

Predict the TO margin, and win the game.  I think Oregon will take better care although both teams are in the Top 10 in TO margin.  Utah usually wins by margin due to TO’s by that defense, and they can’t rely on that this game. Oregon has lost 11 all year and in their biggest games against USC, Auburn, and Washington on the road they had just 2 TO’s lost.

Special Teams is something you can’t ignore, and normally you would just automaitcally assume UTah has the better special teams.  Some of their #’s are going to be better because they play in elevation. Overall they rank 70th in special teams efficiency, while Oregon ranks 42nd.  The small things win these games for Utah and Kyle Whittingham, but he can’t say that for this game, as Oregon seems to be doing the little things better than Utah.  8.63% havoc rate allowed against an opponent average havoc rate of 15.04% compared to Utah who comes in at 10.67%, and an average opponent rank of 14.54% another reason why I like Oregon here.

ARmy +120 3% play 

Cal +1 3.3% 

Oklahoma -13 3.3% 

Texas AM +17 2.2% 

Alabama -3 buy 1/2 3% play 

Wisconsin -150 5.5% NCAAF POD

The weather is lesst han ideal with rain/snow with 30mph gusts of winds, expect a conservative approach from both coaches although Minnesota does like to come out agressive in these games, and then try to hold on.  I think Wisconsin's defense is the best defense Minnesota has seen all year, and the weather really just doesn't favor them in this spot.  Minnesota will have to stop Jonathan Taylor, and on paper it looks like they can do it, but they literally have faced one team in the top 50 in rushing offense all season, and they gave up 35 points to Fresno State.  They then gave up 32 at home to Georgia Southern team that ranks 51st.  Nebraska was able to run on Minnesota and didn't have Adrien Martinez, and Penn State was able to rush for 178 on just 29 carries.  Wisconsin comes into this game with Jonathan Taylor rushing for 200+ yards in each of his last 3 games, and should have another big game here.

Minnesota did beat Wisconsin last year, but that was a down Wisconsin team, and I think Wisconsin will only use that to their advantage.  Minnesota also needed a +4 TO margin game in order to get that win.  I think Wisconsin takes care of the ball here on the road, and Wisconsin should be able to dominate in the trenches and on third down, which should help them wear out this Minnesota defense.  Wisconsin is +25% on third downs compared to Minnesota who is just +11% against worse opponents.  If you don't have a running QB which Minnesota does not you can't run on Wisconsin.  It also doesn't help that Minnesota is 123rd in power success rate on defense and 103rd in stuff rate going up against a big defensive line in Wisconsin.  Minnesota has been a nice story, but I think the weather situation in this game is just too much to overcome.

Washington -7 3.3% play 

Washington knows this offense well, and should win this game. I think we are getting some value with Washington since they are off an inexcusable loss to Colorado that I simply can’t explain.  Washington’s offense disappeared, and they were flat out of the bye. We saw this against Stanford, earlier in the year where they were a 2 TD favorite on the road and lost the game. The y came back the next week and beat Arizona as a TD favorite.  I expect the same here as Washington has beaten Washington State by 13, 27, 28,35, 18, 10 over the last few years. This defense just knows how to defend the Air Raid. They saw it earlier in the year when they hosted USC who they beat by 14 and held to a season low 14 points.  USC’s next lowest point total was against Oregon where they scored 24 points. Washington takes care of business here.

Boise State -14 1.1% Free Play (61-39 +$21,773 L 100 All Sports Free Picks)

Boise State has every reason to win with margin, and we saw that take place in their last game against Utah State.  Meanwhile Colorado State, at home here does not worry me.  We saw them give no effort against Wyoming, and they have no shot at a bowl game.  I think Boise wants to show they deserve consideration for a New Years Day Bowl, and the only way to do it is to win here with margin.  They'll be the more focused team the day after Thanksgiving. 

Nebraska +4.5 2.2% play / Nebraska +185 1.1% play

This is a massive game for Nebraska and Scott Frost to get to 6 wins and become bowl eligible.  They are doing what they did last year and playing well down the stretch.  They outgained Wisconsin in their last home game in a misleading loss, and the defense held Wisconsin to 2TD's in 5 red zone trips, which I thought was a major improvement on what they had been doing earlier in the year, and their offense with Adrian Martinez back rushed for 273 yards in that game.  They backed it up with a dominating performance at Maryland last week, which doesn't say much, but it does show that they are capable of being on the same level of the other teams that have stomped on Maryland this year.

Iowa really what do they have to play for here?  This was a 3 point game last year in Iowa and Nebraska could have won that game.  Statistically speaking last year's Iowa team was better on defense than this year's version.  They ranked 6th in ypp against a tougher offensive schedule.  This year they rank 21st.  Their run defense was stronger, and their ability to get to the QB was stronger.  I think Adrian Martinez could have a good game, and I think they should win, because they have taken care of the ball.  In their first 5 games of the season they had 14 turnovers, but over the last 6 games they have lost just 5 turnovers.  The defense has also played better this year vs. last year.  Iowa doesn't typically blow out teams, and they have been outgained by 150+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games.  They beat Illinois at home last wee by 9, but didn't cover the spread despite being +2 in TO margin, which only happens 23% of the time.

Virginia TEch -140 3.5% play 

Kent State +4 2.2% play

Kent State has the hot hand right now, and I don't believe Eastern Michigan should be more than a field goal favorite here.  Eastern Michigan needs to wint he TO battle to win by more than 4 points here and even the game.  They are +8 in their wins, and -3 in their losses, and Kent State just does not turn the ball over.  They have 10 TO's lost all year, and 4 came against dominant defenses in Miami Ohio and Arizona State.  Eastern Michigan's defense is down this year ranking 93rd in yards per play allowed.  Kent State's offense has enough balance to keep them guessing here.  Kent State's biggest weakness is their pas sprotection, but Eastern Michigan can't take advantage as they rank 92nd in sack %.  Kent State has averaged 34.5 points per game against teams who can't get to the QB.

On the flip side Eastern Michigan is alla bout their passing game.  One thing Kent State can do is get to the QB ranking 33rd in sack %.  Eastern MIchigan vs. top 60 pass rushing units are only averaging 23 points per game.  They also have worse offensive #'s in conference play.  They are -5.5% on third down offense/defense, while Kent is +11%.  They are -12 TD% in the red zone in conference play compared to Kent who is -9%.  Their QB play/defense is also worse in conference play.  I think this will be a tight game as both teams need a win to get to bowl eligibility.  While Eastern Michigan alreayd has 6 wins there is no definite way they are getting in as there should be too many teams wiht 6 wins this year.  Kent with a win I think is in with how well they have played to end the year.  I'll gow ith the more balanced offense, and the team that I feel will take care of the ball more.  We mentioned Kent State's ability to take care of the ball, Eastern Michigan's need to win the TO margin to win a game.  Eastern Michigan has only forced 3 TO's in their 4 home games.  I think both teams take care of the ball here, and this is a pretty even game so to be getting 4 points we have a bargain. 

Ole Miss +120 5.5% NCAAF POD

I always enjoy the college game more on Thanksgiving night, and we have gotten this match-up the last few years.  This is a huge game for the state of Mississippi, and I think we have a coaching advantage when you look at Ole Miss and what they have on their staff and the fact that they are sticking around after this season, and they also have 12 days to prepare compared with Miss State who has just 5.  What they have been able to do down the stretch of the season is improve their team.  On the other side we see Joe Morehead possibly out of a job if he doesn't win this game to get to a bowl, and that creates a lot more pressure for Miss State in my opinion.  Matt Luke already knows he's going to be back, but I think that gives him momentum in this game for recruiting, and the players are highly motivated to knock their rival out of a bowl game after losing this game last year where Ole Miss had a chance to go bowling with a win, and lost.  This is just a different Ole Miss team that has found their identity with John Rhys Plumlee.

Ole Miss running game is legit behind John Rhys Plumlee they are top 10 in rushing, and Miss State's defense has allowed 33.5 points per game against a top 50 rushing offense. Bob Shoops defense loves to blitz and it has left them exposed in the running game especially against mobile QBs.  Bo Nix got 56 yards on just 7 carries, Kellen Mond got 76 yards on 9 carries, and they have given up 6 rushing TD's to opping QB's.  That's a huge problem with Plumlee at Qb, and now you could say that Ole Miss offense is one dimensional, but Ole Miss at least does not turn the ball over, and they make up for that by having a top 50 run defense to go up against Miss State's rushign attack, while Miss State ranks 95th vs. the run.  Miss State also allowed 35.5 points on average to non top 75 passing teams which Ole Miss is.

Miss State's offense obviously runs the ball here 60% of the time, but they are going up against a top 50 run defense.  Ole Miss defense has given up 32ppg to top 50 rushing offenses, which is very similar to what Miss State gives up, but LSU and Alabama are dramatically throwing those numbers off.  Ole Miss actually gave both opponents a game, and forced both opponents to play their starters the entire game.  With all of that said Ole Miss still has better rushing offense and defensive nubmers overall and against common opponents, and in conference play they are +1.63 yards per carry compared to Miss State who is +0.12ypc.  Miss State really got a lot of those numbers by bullying teams like Arkansas, and Kentucky earlier in the season.  Miss State's passing attack is nothing to get exciteda bout and their receiving corp do not do the QB's any favors with tons of drops on the season. Ole Miss vs. teams not in the top 75 in QB rating have allowed just 18 points per game on average in those games.  They also have to defend these QB's from running, and it's improtant to know that Ole Miss has given up just 1 rushing TD all year and that was to a healthy Tua.

I do like to look at common opponents this far into the season, and Ole Miss and Miss State are just a notch below A&M and Auburn in their respected division in the SEC.  That's who they would have to jump over, and when we look at these two teams they both played them, and Ole Miss lost by 7 and 6 points, while Miss State lost by 23 and 19.  That again goes into coaching and why I think Ole Miss has the better staff.

We need to talk red zone in a game like this, and Miss State's offense although slightly better in TD% in conference play 65% to 62.5% for Ole Miss that's largely in part to having two power running QB's,  they give up 67% TD percentage while Ole Miss comes in at 44%.  Ole Miss again surprisingly has the better defense especially against the run, which is a huge key in this game.  Miss State vs. top 50 run defense average just 22.2 points per game.  They topped 30 points 2x, one game against Southern Miss, and the other against Texas A&M in garbage time as they trailed 35-10 before losing 49-30.  

Lastly and most importantly is turnover margin.  Again Ole Miss comes out in a better situation.  Ole Miss just 12 TO's lost on the season, 4 in 4 road games and 8 in 7 conference games where they were +1 TO Margin.  Miss State has lost 20 on the season, which includes 15 in 7 conference games, where they are -7 TO margin.  There were 7 games where they had 2 or more TO's in a game.

San Diego STate +3 4% play 

Duke +7 -115 3% Fade The World 

Just 20% of the $$ and 28% of the tickets are on Duke here.  Listen if they continue to turn the ball over then yeah they could get run out of the building again, but I have a few reasons to believe they won’t do that.  This line is definitely inflated given the state of Wake Forest right now. 

I really don’t see much separating these two teams.  Wake benefited early from a much easier schedule. Their first 8 opponents all have 4 loses or more on the season.  Wake Forest then stepped up playing Virginia Tech and Clemson who have 3 total losses and they were exposed, especially without their best offensive player in WR Sage Surratt.  Duke meanwhile has faced 5 teams with 3 or less losses thus far, and they are coming off very bad loss against Syracuse, which I believe has inflated this line up to a TD. David Cutcliffe, who is one of the best dog coaches usually has his team ready to play the week after that type of a loss to a team they should have beaten, and I believe they were looking ahead to the Wake game, which they have had circled since the summer.  ““Embarrassment. They came on our field, put 50-something on us,” Duke defensive end Chris Rumph II said. “We’ve had this marked on our schedule since last year, and we’re coming to practice with a mindset that that’s not going to happen again. We’re going to their house this year.”

Duke has proven they care about these rivalry games, stepped up and nearly upset North Carolina after losing to Virginia 14-48 the week prior.  They haven’t played well of late, but here they go up against what has become a one dimensional offense in Wake Forest. Wake already among the worst teams in the country in running the ball, and now they are without their top two WR as Scotty Washington is questionable here.  That has led to Jamie Newman making mistakes. 

The running game will be key in this game, and I think Duke can have more success running the ball.  Duke has faced 6 of 10 teams in the top 50 run defense. The 4 teams they faced outside of the top 50 for which Wake Forest is they went 2-2, and 1 loss was by only 3 points, and they only turned the ball over 6 times.  I think establishing the run against Wake Forest is a big key, and that will help avoid the turnovers that have plagued this Duke team which has wasted a solid defense. Duke has 22 turnovers in their 6 losses this year, and just 2 in their wins.  They’ll need that recipe to pull the upset, but either way I think it will be close. Wake Forest vs. a top 50 pass defense, has only happened 3 times this season. They beat Florida State 22-20, but should have lost, and lost their last two games against Clemson and Virginia Tech.  Each of those 3 games they struggled to score points, and I expect to see much of the same on Saturday, which gives more value in getting a TD with Duke.

Syracuse +9.5 3.3% play

We gave out Syracuse on the spread and money line last week and they made us look great. I am going back to the well here, as Dino Babers has his team playing with confidence, and needing to win to stay in contention of getting into a bowl game.  Syracuse fired their defensive coordinator after the BC game heading into the bye. Dino knew his defense was talented, and under achieving and it certainly showed last week when they held Duke out of the end zone. Louisville on the other hand won last week, and are bowl eligible with a bigger game against an in state rival Kentucky next week.  

The key to this game for Syracuse is the running game.  They have ran the ball 40+ times in each of their last 3 games, and are 9-0 dating back to last year when they run for 200+ yards.  Louisville’s run defense ranks 100th in the country and that comes against an average rushing offense ranking 78th. I think Syracuse can have some success in the running game here, and although their offensive numbers don’t look great this year Babers is an offensive minded coach.  The offensive line played well last week, and going against a defensive line that ranks 108th in sack %, 96th in yards per play allowed should only benefit this offense.

Louisville’s offense has been great, but they have had 5 games where they have lost the TO battle, and Syracuse has only lost the TO battle once all season.  NC State really shut this Louisville offense down in the first half by blitzing this offensive line which may be worse than Syracuse’s. Louisville has allowed 18.36% havoc rate, and they are 125th at protecting their QB, and give up a lot of tackles for loss.  Syracuse is a very aggressive, and is coming into this game with a ton of confidence. I think it sets things up well for this to be a close game.

Texas +6 2.2% play 

Texas has faced a tougher schedule, and are still alive to get to the Big 12 Championship.  They need Baylor to lose out and for Iowa State to trip up once. It’s highly unlikely with Baylor facing Kansas next week, but Baylor has played in a lot of tight games this season.  Here they face a Texas team they nearly beat last year, which should have Texas attention, but that all happened with Sam Ehlinger getting hurt in the first quarter. Texas can throw the ball with Ehlinger as they rank 28th in QB rating.  Baylor’s defense has been great, but against the 3 top 50 passing offenses they have faced they have gotten shredded. Iowa State threw for 342 yards, Texas Tech threw for 362 yards in a 3 point loss in OT, and Oklahoma just threw for 297 yards.  This defense was on the field a ton in the second half against Oklahoma for a total of 96 plays in all. How much do they have left after Gameday, and the 28-3 blown loss at home ruining a great opportunity to sneak into the college football playoff.

Texas defensive numbers are way off due to the injuries they have had this year.  Texas is now healthy and it showed the last two weeks holding Kansas State to 17 offensive points, and Iowa State to 23 points on the road.  Baylor really has not blown teams out this year and when they do get up in games the back door is wide open. They blew two 20+ leads at home this year against teams with capable QB’s.  I think Texas comes out in no huddle in this game and tries to take it to Baylor early. Texas also has a major advantage on third downs in this game on offense and defense they are the far better team against a tougher schedule.  Texas offense will be tested without their top WR Colin Johnson, but they are deep at the position, and an elite QB is typically able to play well no matter who his receivers are.

I always like to touch on some of the things most people don’t look at.  Special teams is a big key here as Baylor ranks 89th in special teams, and their punter is not good and wildly inconsistent.  TO margin is another key, and Baylor has had issues of late with 4 of their last 5 games resulting in 2 or more TO’s lost, and 2 of those they had 3 TO’s.  Well, Texas has had only 4 games dating back to last season where they have had 2 or more TO’s. They have just 12 total turnovers lost this season.

Texas A&M +13 3.3% play 

The total has come down a ton in this game due to the weather as we are expecting some heavy rain, but not a lot of wind.  We have already seen how Georgia plays overall, with their conservative style, and it gets even more conservative when weather conditions are not great.  Both teams are going to need to rely on the running game more here, and I feel that there is not as big of an advantage on the Georgia side as many think.

Georgia ranks 12th in rushing ypc, but they have not run for a lot of yards this year.  They'll be facing a very good Texas A&M run defense that has been dominant at times.  This A&M defense has size up front, speed at LB, and a safety in Demari Richardson who is not afraid to come up and make plays.  A&M held both Clemson and Alabama under 160 yards rushing, and both those teams feature a passing game that is far better than Georgia.  The weather also supports that Georgia is going to be more conservative.  When you look at the games A&M has struggled to stop the run - Ole Miss, Miss State, and Auburn all three of those teams have something in common.  All three have a QB that can run the ball.  That's just not what Georgia does with Jake Fromm.  Georgia when they are held under 160 yards are 3-5 and their 3 wins have all come this season by 7, 7, and 6 points.  Texas A&M also top 15 in the country in rushing explosive plays allowed with only 9 rushing plays of 20+ yards.

Texas A&M has a very good rushing attack ranking 24th, and they have gotten better as the season has gone along and they have found a special player in Isiaha Spiller.  I think Georgia's run defense which ranks 10th in ypc is a bit misleading as they have faced just 3 teams in the top 80 in rushing ypc.  Kentucky is most similar to A&M, and they had plenty of success against Georgia, 35 carries for 160 yards.  That was in a rain storm, with a RB playing QB in Lynn Bowden.  Georgia knew what was coming and Kentucky still was able to run the ball.  I really thought Auburn would have ran more early especially with Bo Nix.  Gus Malzahn did not want to risk Nix health, because of the QB situatino and that's why we saw such a conservative approach from Auburn early.  In the end Bo Nix was a factor 13 carries 42 yards, and if he doesn't miss a wide open receive in the flat on a 4th down play Georgia might have lost the game.  Bowden who we mentioned had 99 yards rushing on 17 carries, and Ian Book only rushed it 3 times for 18 yards.  Notre Dame barely had the ball and only tried to run the ball 14 times.  Thig Georgia team will be tested on defense on Saturday, because Kellen Mond can run the ball, and he's an excellent passer.  Georgia's defense was also on the field for 90+ plays.

Georgia has played conservatively all year, and if they play that way in this game they will win and not cover again.  Georgia does not need style points, and I expect a close game here, because Kellen Mond has taken care of the ball against top opponents.  Against Clemson, Alabama, and Auburn just 1 interception.  

Indiana +10 2.2% play

Indiana had a 73% postgame win expectancy on the road against Penn State.  So many things went against them in that game, but they fought and stayed in the game, and at times looked like the better team.  Indiana has played Michigan tough the last 4 games, and this is an ultimate sandwich spot for Michigan after Michigan State and Ohio State.  We heard several Michigan players already talking about the Ohio State game. QB, Shea Patterson said that they had one game left that counted after the Michigan State game.  Indiana has proven to be a very balanced team ranking top 50 in offense and defensive ypp, and Michigan is 0-2 against teams that can claim that. Indiana also sports a 24th ranked QB rating, which is the key to defeating this Michigan defense that is very good against the run.  That’s a bold statement from a QB that has to go on the road this week where he has never played well. Patterson 12 interceptions in 15 road games in his career and has completed less than 60% of his passes.

Indiana could be without their #2 WR who left the Penn State game with a head injury.  Tom Allen seemed confident in Indiana’s backups, and honestly Whop Philyor probably cost Indiana the game at Penn State.  He touched the ball on a punt return to open the game, and fumbled it on the catch that got him removed from the game when two Penn State defenders could have been called for targeting but weren't.  

Indiana has actually faced four teams in the top 30 in defense, and have had no problem putting up points against them all with the exception of Ohio State where they only scored 10, but in all others they scored 27, 34, and 31 points.  I expect Indiana to put up more points than they have in the series in recent history as their offensive line is playing extremely well. They only allow 9.6% havoc rate, they are 24th in sack %, and 21st in power success rate. Indiana also has not turned the ball over in those games against top defenses with only 4 turnovers in 4 games and +1 margin.  Michigan when they have faced top 30 defenses are -5 TO margin in just 2 games.

UCF -6 3.3% PLAY

Fading the public dog is one of my favorite situations to take the favorite, and that is what we have here.  There are a few others I like on the board, Navy -3.5 over SMU, but SMU has the extra week to prepare for the option, but SMU getting 66% of the tickets in that game.  Kansas State at +2.5 also getting 69% of the tickets and 65% of the money over Texas Tech, and Tennessee +3.5 getting an amazing 73% of the tickets, and 66% of the money, also off a bye.  I still may come back to Missouri if that gets down to -3.

Tulane has been a favorite of the "sharps" all season long, but Tulane had a crushing defeat last week against Temple knocking them out of the AAC Championship.  This team is good, but they have been exposed without healthy RB, the QB has started to make too many mistakes.  Tulane's defense also has a lot of question marks particularly in explosive plays allowed where they rank outside the top 100.  That's a big problem with UCF, the forgotten team coming in off a bye.

UCF still alive to get to the AAC Championship.  They need Temple to win out, and Cincinnati to lose out creating a three way tie, and I believe they get in.  UCF one of the best explosive and explosive play allowed teams in the nation, and that's a bad matchup for Tulane.  Tulane has faced two teams that have a balanced offense. That is a team that can run and pass or at least rank in the top 50 in QB rating.  Navy doesn't really try to pass but when they do they are good for some explosive plays.. In both those games Tulane allowed 41 and 47 points and lost both games.  I can see Central Florida scoring into the 40's and maybe the 50's in this game.

The main difference between this year and last for UCF is they decided to go with a true freshman QB in Dillon Gabriel.  He's been great 24 TD's to 7 INT's, but all 7 of those INT's came in their 3 losses on the road.  UCF still nearly won all 3 of those games despite being -7 TO they lost by a combined 7 points.  Tulane doesn't really force a lot of turnovers in fact they rank 105th in TO margin and have never forced more than 1 interception.  Central Florida coming in off a bye, and you have to think Gabriel is growing as a QB and won't make the mistakes he's made the last two games on the road.  I think UCF cruises and we are getting a cheap price as the line has not moved a bit despite all the tickets/money coming in on Tulane.

NC State -112 3% play

NC State is the only one that cares about winning this game.  We saw Georgia Tech fall flat on their face last week once they were eliminated for bowl contention.  Geoff Collins has this team moving in the right direction, but he's not likely to really care about winning this game and more concerned with getting his team and players more experience.  The players are probably looking towards next weeks game against Georgia.  NC State on the other hand is 4-6 and still fighting for a bowl game, which is something that is entirely possible.  They need to win, and perception of this team is at its absolute lowest right now after 4 straight losses.

Lets take a look at who NC State has lost to though?  Boston College, Wake Forest (healthy), Clemson, and Louisville.  All 4 of those teams feature top 50 offenses.  NC State got down early, and really had to press, and they did something they haven't done in previous games.  They turned the ball over.  Another reason we are getting value with NC State here in my opinion.  The scores over the last 4 weeks look terrible, but when you are -12 TO margin that's going to happen.  They recovered just 25% of the fumbles in those 4 games and lost 7 fumbles in the last 3.  Weather won't be an issue here tonight at all with no wind, and temperatures in the 50's.  NC State over the first 7 games only turned the ball over 6 times.  I expect they take care of the ball here tonight.  Georgia Tech has only forced 12 TO's in 10 games, and in 7 of those 10 games they forced just 3 total turnovers.  NC State just faced 4 teams in the top 60 in TO margin two inside the top 20.  I think they win the TO Margin here tonight,  Georgia Tech 110th in TO margin and is -4 in conference play.

Georgia Tech facing a top run defense?  It has happened 6 times facing a team in the top 50 in run defense.  NC State ranks 30th in ypc and 23rd in rushing success allowed and are very much a top unit thanks to their defensive line.  Only two teams really had success against this unit which were BC and Clemson whoa re both top 20 in rushing offense.  Georgia Tech ranks 89th in rushing ypc and success rate, and they'll opt to run 58% of the time.  In the 6 games facing top 50 run defenses they went 1-5, and 2-4 ATS and average just 16.4ppg.

NC State does not run as much, but I think its critical to their success here when starting a young QB.  They haven't been able to lean on the run, because they have faced some good defenses and they have gotten down in the game and have had to lean on the passing game. I don't see that happening in this game and that will help them.  When NC State faces a bad run defense, and Georgia Tech ranks 96th in ypc allowed against a weak schedule they are averaging 24.2 points per game.  NC State's offense has been better on third down, and so has their defense.  

Both passing offenses are outside the top 100 in passing success and explosiveness, and are going against defenses who ran similarly in passing explosiveness allowed.  With that said NC State protects their QB better ranking 29th in sack % allowed, while Georgia Tech ranks 113th.  NC State also has a pass rush ranking 29th compared to Georgia Techs 87th ranking.  So if there is an edge in that category NC State has it.

Baylor +10.5 4.4% ncaaf pod

Oklahoma has a fantastic offense once again and you have to give Lincoln Riley a lot of credit.  Actually everyone already does that for us. He did have to replace another QB, but this time 4 of 5 offensive linemen, and that really hasn’t shown up yet this year, because Oklahoma has not faced a top defense.  They faced one team in the top 50 in rushing defense, which was West Virginia who ranks 47th, and they rank 116th vs. the pass. They faced one team in the top 50 in passing defense, Kansas State, and they lost. I know they put up 40+ points, but Kansas State ranks 111th vs. the run.  Baylor’s defense ranks 17th vs. the run, and 11th vs. the pass, and they rank 19th at sack %, and they do that without a lot of blitzing.  

Oklahoma’s offense is really all about defending two guys.  Jalen Hurts, make him a passer. He nearly threw 3 interceptions in the first quarter against Iowa State who runs a ton of cover 3.  Well, Baylor will run the same thing, but they can get pressure on Hurts with their DL led by James Lynch. I give all the credit in the world to Jalen Hurts who stuck around at Alabama and transferred at the end of the season, but he just doesn’t make good decisions.  We have seen this story before it is what got him benched at Alabama, and it appears not much has changed, and I think it’s because he has not played in a lot of challenging games over his career. CeeDee Lamb is the other guy on this Oklahoma offense you have to worry about, and I believe Baylor has a CB that can slow him down in Jameson Houston who has held two elite WR in check already this season.  Jalen Reagor and Tylan Wallace combined for just 7 catches and 77 yards. Lamb is a different animal, but Baylor is a really good tackling team and they rank 4th in the country in explosive pass defense, which should help them tremendously in bottling up this Oklahoma offense. I think it’s okay to let them get their yards, and then create mistakes when Oklahoma is in the red zone it’s something Baylor has done really well.  We saw Jalen do this in the Texas game, and Texas by no means has a great defense this year. Oklahoma’s offense is -21% TD percentage in the red zone on the road, and their defense is -15% on the road vs. their home splits.

Oklahoma’s defense is not any better than a year ago it seems to me.  The one worry I have in this game is Baylor’s offensive line that has not been good.  They really have to tire out a defensive line before Brewer has any serious time to throw the ball.  I think they can have success doing that here, but expect to see a conservative approach from Baylor’s offense early.  They do feature the talent to challenge this defense ranking top 20 in rushing play explosiveness. We saw what Iowa State did in the running game to open the second half and BAylor’s QB is absolutely another threat in the running game that Oklahoma has to worry about.  Baylor also has Mimms at WR who has had monster games against Oklahoma over his career, 22 receptions for 330 yards. Mimms won them the game at TCU last week.  

Baylor is a team that fights until the end and that’s the type of team I want my money on.  Matt Rhule has this team fighting, and last week it showed where they could have lost the game against TCU so many times.  They are back home and a better team here. They got up 21-0 on Iowa State earlier this year, and nobody but Oklahoma has done that to Iowa State.  Baylor believes, because they did it before. In 2017 they lost 48-41 in Rhule’s first year. They got down 21-0, and 28-7 and came back and took the lead then Oklahoma got up 17, and Baylor came back to make a game of it again.  This team fights, they tackle well and have a lot of the ingredients to pull an upset. I think this will be a tight game throughout, and if Baylor can just get it to the 4th quarter they’ll have a shot for the upset.

Ole Miss +21.5 2.2% play 

37% of the tickets on Ole Miss here.  LSU has all of the pressure, and there is no incentive to run it up against Ole Miss other than the fact that Ed Orgeron used to coach here, and got fired, and he’s wanted to run it up in the past, but I think he needs to be smarter than that.  Ole Miss has a very good pass rush, that ranks 30th in sack % at home and is 2nd in the SEC in sacks. Their run defense also ranks 30th in the country and both stats are better than Alabama’s. LSU is playing with some depth issues on their offensive line missing two starting tackles and a backup.  Ole Miss has the ability to put you in obvious passing situations, and really get after the QB. So, does LSU turn into old LSU and get a little conservative here knowing they have nothing to prove? Mike MaCyntire really has this defense playing extremely well of late, and in conference play this defense has allowed only 42% TD’s in the red zone, and we know LSU’s kicker has had some issues.  I could see LSU going for it a few times down here on a 4th down and not getting it. We did see that in their road game against Miss State.

Ole Miss is a threat with their offense with one of the best running games in the county led by their QB. LSU can certainly contain him, but they also have some guys that are beat up on the defensive front, and in their 4 road games they have allowed 38, 38, 13, and 41 points.  Ole Miss should have some tricks up their sleeve for this game. I think LSU wins in the end, but 21.5 points is the highest spread in this series that the home team has won in 6 of the last 7 years since 2011!

Iowa -145 3% play 

61% of the money and tickets on Minnesota here as we have the #7 team in the country a dog on the road to the #23 team.  I know I mentioned leaning toward Minnesota on the podcast, but this just sets things up for them to have a poor performance.  When I look at how they have done in Big Ten play on the road they were 1-8 the last two years on the road. This year they are 3-0 on the road, but they beat Fresno State by 3, a team that’s having a bad year, they beat Purdue by 7 and Purdue lost their starting QB in the game.  And they beat Rutgers, a historically bad team. Last year they not only lost road games they got smoked and by some pretty bad teams including Nebraska by 25, Illinois by 24, and Maryland by 29 points!.

Minnesota is having a great year, but they haven’t faced quality defenses.  They have major questions on their offensive line. The offensive line played their best game against Penn State, but they can’t do it in back to back weeks and this time on the road.  They rank 99th in pass protection. What is a major red flag is the fact that they allow 3.5% more sacks on the road than at home. The sack % of the units they faced on the road rank 122nd, 91st, and 112th.  Minnesota is not going to be able to run the ball on Iowa, and I fear Minnesota will be in some third and long situations.

Minnesota’s receivers have been really impressive last week, but we saw signs of Penn State’s secondary having issues in the Michigan game where they gave up 21 points at home, and it should have been 28 if it weren’t for a drop in the end zone.  Iowa’s defense went on the road and held Michigan and their elite receivers to 10 points in the game. Penn State also ranked 8th in yards per play, but that has come against an average offense ranking 93rd in ypp offense. Iowa might be better on defense and they are at home, where teams dreams go to die.  Especially Top 10 teams. I still have questions about Iowa’s ability to get margin, which is why I’m playing the Money line here.

Syracuse +10.5 buy low gow

Buy low game of the week here with Syracuse who is 0-5 ATS over their last 5 games, but they come off a bye week, and according to HC Dino Babers who fired his DC over the bye week they have had energetic practices and the team still believes they can run the table and get to a bowl game.  This team does have good defensive personal so I think the move with the DC was a good move that should at least give the team one game bump which is what we usually see with these changes.  

Duke’s offense has been really bad this year.  They rank 122nd in yards per play, 99th in rushing ypc, and 116th in QB rating. Syracuse has had a tough schedule of offenses and have only faced two teams that are balanced in the respect of being bad throwing the ball and bad running the ball.  NC State, and surprisingly Pitt rank among the worst in the nation in these categories, and Syracuse defense kept them in both of those games. Although they lost 10-16, and 20-27 they were in the games. Duke really has no business laying double digits here, and I’m happy to grab the points going against a Duke team that has turned the ball over 16 times in the last 5 games.  The one thing Syracuse has done well on the season is limit the turnovers. They rank 21st in TO margin, and if they win the margin here they could pull the outright upset.

Auburn +3

This game is pretty easy to handicap.  Whichever team can run the ball better will win this game.  That has held true in 9 of the last 10 meetings between the two teams.  This is the first time Auburn has a bye before the game, while Georgia played an SEC game last week.  South Carolina had a bye week before they went to Georgia and pulled the upset. Whenever you have to win at the line of scrimmage and you come into the game the fresher team that’s going to be a huge benefit and when you ad din that you are also the home team it becomes a major advantage.  Auburn should have a great game plan on offense and defense, and I think it really helps their QB playing at home where he has been excellent especially when facing a team that does not have a pass rush. Georgia ranks 92nd in sack %.

Auburn’s rushing attack is far better this year ranking 32nd in ypc, and they have a QB that can also pick up first downs with his feet, which is not something they have had the last two years in this game.  Georgia’s run defense has been excellent all year, but only two teams have tried to run the ball 30+ times on them. Both of those teams were successful in doing so as South Carolina and Kentucky ran for 142 & 160 yards and that was without the threat of a passing game.  Kentucky was down to their 3rd string QB, and playing in a rainstorm where you knew the run was coming, and Kentucky was able to run the ball. The same thing happened in the South Carolina game their 2nd string QB got hurt, and a 3rd string QB came in and was essentially running the wild cat and they were able to run the ball and upset Georgia.  Auburn is far more dynamic than both of those teams, and much more creative with Gus Malzahn calling the plays. Lastly, Georgia played both games against top 50 rushing attacks at home. The Kentucky game, and Notre Dame, who only attempted 14 runs.

Georgia’s rushing attack is clearly elite, and the biggest key to their offense, and that is nothing against Jake Fromm.  I think Fromm is a big leader, and really enjoyed following him throughout his high school career and freshman year leading Georgia all the way to the National Championship.  However, when Georgia does not rush for more than 4.3 ypc they are 0-6 under Fromm/Smart. Auburn’s run defense ranks 19th, and they have faced six TOP 50 rushing attacks. Their run defense is better than Georgia’s in my opinion and being at home only compounds that fact.  It doesn’t seem that way, because Georgia has had a really easy schedule so far. The other problem with Georgia is their rushing offense has gotten worse throughout the year. Team’s are starting to realize they don’t have an explosive set of receivers, and they are beginning to focus more on the run, and it has shown in their last two games.  Auburn’s run defense has not given up over 200 yards, and have not allowed more than 4.3 yards per carry all year. Georgia’s last visit to Auburn they only averaged 1.44 ypc, and that was in their championship run in 2017. This offense is just not the same.

TO marign, and special teams are about even, and so are many other statistical categories we look at.  You can say Georgia has more to play for, but I say they have the most pressure. Auburn would love nothing more than to end Georgia’s playoff hopes on their home field and then go and do the same thing to Alabama in a couple of weeks.

West Virginia +14 Fade The Public GOW

75% of the tickets are on Kansas State here, with more money on West Virginia and the line has dropped a point down to 14.  West Virginia actually has the better defense here. They rank 73rd in yards per play allowed, and their strength is against the run, which aligns pretty well in this match-up.  I don’t think Kansas State should be laying 2 TD’s or more to anyone in conference play, and they are not the type of team that runs away with games. West Virginia had a bad first half against Texas Tech last game on defense, and Neal Brown has made the adjustments and they held Texas Tech to 3 points the rest of the way and actually outgained them on the day.  West Virginia has played well on defense all year long and rank 47th vs. the run, and that comes with an average opponent rushing offense ranking 48th. They have played some good rushing teams this year and have held them in check. 

Kansas State’s offense has faced just two Top 50 run defenses, and they lost to Baylor 12-31, and beat TCU 24-17.  When they are held under 150 yards rushing they are just 2-3, and their two wins were misleading over TCU and Miss STate by 7 points each they were -82 and -83 yards in the game.  I think West Virginia can hold Kansas State in that range, and definitely below 5 yards per carry. If they do that they will cover this game.

This would be a larger play because Kansas State’s defense ranks 97th in yards per play, but their defensive weakness is run defense ranking 111th in ypc allowed.  West Virginia throws the ball 58% of the time. However, Neal Brown is a good coach and he knows you can’t do that on the road with this team. On the road he actually runs the ball 49% of the time, and when this team plays a team not in the top 60 in run defense they have been able to put up yards and points.  AGainst Texas they put up 31 points, and 463 yards of offense. AGainst Kansas they put up 29 points and 394 yards of offense. Against Texas Tech they put up 548 yards of offense, but only 17 points due to 4 interceptions thrown. I think they can have a balanced approach on offense which should help the QB play here.  This team really has only gotten blown out three times. At Missouri where they were -3 TO margin in the beginning of the season against Oklahoma which is actually the only game they allowed more than 5 yards per carry, and against Iowa State. Iowa State is just a different animal with a balanced offense. Kansas State is much more one dimensional and have flaws on offense and defense that do not warrant them being a 14 point favorite.