South Carolina -1 3.3% play

These are two teams heading in opposite directions, and although Missouri finally covered a spread last week it was against Georgia who honestly could not have been taking Missouri seriously and really played conservatively once they got a decent lead, and still Missouri only put up 6 points.  South Carolina meanwhile looks to extend their momentum after beating Florida in dominating fashion.  South Carolina is building something here, and I love the HC Beamer, and they want to get to a Bowl game.  I can’t say that Missouri cares, I have seen multiple times this season where they had no effort.  So the situation for me is with South Carolina.  South Carolina has also played the tougher schedule, and have the better numbers with -0.3 ypp against an opponents with +0.73 ypp margin.  Missouri comes in at -0.9 vs. opponent +0.26 ypp.

South Carolina’s offense stepped up last week with their third string QB Jason Brown, really looked like the best passer for South Carolina, but it was the running game that got going.  South Carolina gets to go up against a bad defense yet again this week as Missouri ranks 129th in epa run defense, and 98th in epa pass defense.  South Carolina +4ppg averaging 27 vs. opponents with bad defenses.  If Brown struggles for any reason, Beamer, said he’s got Zoland who is healthy enough to play.

Missouri is really banged up, and could be without their starting QB Connor Bazulak, but either way I look for them to struggle vs.  South Carolina team that shows effort the entire game.  South Carolina ranks in top 50 in epa pass defense and epa run defense.  Missouri’s offense has carried the team, but they have not faced many teams that are good at stopping the run and pass.  Just two times it has happened and Missouri scored 6 and 14 points.  The next best defense they faced was Boston College and they lost on the road in OT. 

Ohio St -20.5 2.2% play 

Georgia -20 1% 

UAB +4.5 5.5% NCAAF POD / UAB +170 1% bonus

Marshall was my POD last Saturday over FAU, and it was an easy cover, but Marshall continued to give up rushing yards 47-243 yards, but luckily FAU, and their poor coaching staff bailed us out.  That will not happen here as Bill Clark far better coach than Willie Taggart.  UAB held Marshall to 268 yards in their own building last year and there really is not much difference between last year’s UAB vs. Marshall.  Marshall was +1.4 vs. -0.6 ypp while UAB WAS +1.3 VS. -0.25.  This year, UAB +1 VS. -0.35, AND Marshall +1.6 vs. -0.53.  UAB also needs this game more as both sit at 4-1, UAB is trailing UTSA, and if they don’t win this game next week’s game won’t matter at all, while Marshall can afford to lose, and then beat Western Kentucky the last week of the season and win their division to get to the C-USA Championship.

UAB also has the goods in a team that I want to back on the road.  They have very good rushing offense ranked 10th in epa, they’re going against a Marshall defense that ranks 95th in ypc, and 93rd in epa run defense.  They have a very good defense ranking 24th in ypp, and can force Marshall into third and longs to let their elite pass rush get after Marshall.  They also rank 12th in defensive TO% per possession, while Marshall ranks 122nd on offense.  I don’t think Marshall can play a clean game here, while UAB can. The biggest difference between this year and last year’s match up is Marshall seems to have forgotten how to stop the run. Last year’ steam ranked 6th in ypc defense, and gave up 216 yards to UAB, but this year’s defense ranks 95th.  It’s not even because they have faced a tougher group of offenses.  UAB’S ranked 64th in epa run offense last year, and this year they rank 10th.  They ran for 127 yards at Georgia, which is the second most rushing yards Georgia has given up all year.  I think the wrong team is favored here UAB wins outright!

Florida St +3 buy 1/2 3% play 

Iowa -175 2.5% play 

This is a buy low spot for Iowa, and that’s the time I want to buy them.  This is a home game and an elimination game for the Big Ten West.  Iowa lost to Purdue and Wisconsin, but they historically have issues with those two teams for various reasons.  Iowa has owned Minnesota especially under PJ Fleck.  They are 4-0 against Fleck and the only time Minnesota was within the number was in 2019 when Minnesota had a very good passing game and ranked #10.  Iowa was really in control of that game up 20-3.  There is also no love lost between these two coaches.  PJ Fleck down 35-0 last year with his starters in the game against the second team of Iowa scored a late TD against Iowa’s backup defense.  Ferentz used three timeouts late simply to send some sort of message.

Iowa’s offense has struggled, and with a less than 100% Petras last week, Ferentz inserted Alex Padilla at QB, and he’ll get the start this week. I don’t think it’s a bad thing for an offense that has struggled so anyone telling you they are backing Minnesota, because Petras is OUT is clueless.  Padilla came in last week against Northwestern and it gave the offense a spark as he led back to back TD Scoring drives.  I think the rest of the team steps up here with their starting QB out again to help Padilla.

Minnesota’s offense has not been great.  They rely on the rushing attack, and are completely one dimensional.  They will have a really tough time going up against Iowa’s run defense that plays the gaps better than any team.  They rank #3 in epa run defense, and they back it up with the #13 epa pass defense.  This is the best defense Minnesota has faced all year, and we have seen them struggle plenty against Illinois who ranked 69th in epa pass defense, and 86th in epa run defense.  They struggled against Bowling Green scoring only 10 points, while Bowling Green 11th in epa pass defense they are 116th in epa run defense.  Iowa has the secondary to leave on an Island and play the rush.  Minnesota could also be without their best WR Bell who is ? and was injured in last game.  This all sets up nicely for Iowa to do what they do best.

UCF +7 2-3%

This spread is not adjusting for the last two weeks where UCF dominated Memphis, and Memphis just beat SMU, who has now lost back to back games.  Their head coach is interviewing for P5 HC jobs and is probably out after this year, and they are now two games out of the AAC Championship, and have Cincinnati on deck.  I like where UCF is trending they come into this game with identical YPP numbers to Memphis, against a tougher schedule +0.7ypp, vs. -0.225, compare to Memphis +0.7 vs. -0.43.  SMU is +0.8 vs. -0.75.  I backed UCF over Memphis 2 weeks ago, and I backed Memphis over SMU last week so I have to back UCF over SMU here  with it being +7.

The match up is a bit different than the game last week as SMU goes up against a top tier passing defense instead of a good run defense, but overall, UCF is a far better defense than Memphis.  They are far better vs. the pass, which is what SMU likes to do the most.  UCF also 22nd in % of possessions ending in TO’s on defense, while SMU has been turning the ball over ranking 85th in TO%.  SMU really struggled last week without their SR Center Allan Ali, who is out again this week, and they’ll likely be without their most dynamic RB Bentley who came back soon last week.  UCF’s got some dudes on that defensive line and rank 34th in sack %.  SMU played their first two defenses in the top 50 the last two weeks and lost both games. I could see the same happening this week.

UCF also wants to run the ball, it shortens the game, they don’t play nearly as fast as Memphis and I don’t think that’s being taken into consideration here.  I think that gives us more value in the #.  SMU’s defense has been great against the run, which is the strength of UCF’s offense, but a closer look reveals they have played only two top 50 rushing offenses, and UCF is the best ranking 28th when we average ypc, and epa rush offense.  The average rank of the other rushing offenses faced is 90.6.  TCU ran for 170 yards 5.67ypc, SMU won that game, but TCU’s defense is awful.  North Texas outside top 50 in EPA, but inside top 50 in rushing ypc, ran for 125.  UCF brings the best defense that SMU has faced all year, as well as the best rushing offense.  That is value at +7.

East Carolina +5 2.2% play 

Pitt -6.5 2.2% play 

South Carolina +18.5 3.3% play

This is far too many points in my opinion as Florida really does not have a ton of motivation the week after Georgia and being a 4 loss team.  They also are on the road facing a South Carolina team off the bye, and a South Carolina team that does play good defense, and has faced the tougher schedule.  There has not been a meeting between these two decided by more than 14 points since 2012.  Both teams play slow, which should keep the clock ticking, and Dan Mullen has shown he is fine playing conservatively on the road. 

South Carolina will get Zeb Noland starting here at QB he’s been their best option, but I think they may actually be able to get the running game going.  They average over a yard more per carry at home, and Florida has had major issues in run defense at times this year ranking 64th in ypc they have allowed 2.02 ypc more on the road than at home.  So that’s likely the route South Carolina takes in this game in my opinion while they have struggled running the ball they have faced an average run defense ranking 45th in ypc.

South Carolina’s defense has been a top 50 unit ranking 46th vs. the run, and even better at home and 25th in epa pass defense.  They have allowed 1 passing TD and 6 INT’s at home this year, so I don’t expect Dan Mullen to pass very often here on the road especially since his QB’s have had TO issues with 9 INT in 4 road games they are -5 TO Margin on the road, while South Carolina is +3.  Expect a conservative game for Florida here that gets them the win, but South Carolina at 4-4 is fighting for bowl eligibility off a bye and have played very hard for Beamer. This is also a night game at home for South Carolina and we can expect 75,000+.

Boise +5 2.2% play 

Marshall -1.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

Florida Atlantic is over rated, and they have an over rated head coach in Willie Taggart.  Marshall’s DC Lance Guidry was also the safeties coach at FAU last seasons and is very familiar with the Owls’ defensive personnel.  FAU offensive numbers are bull shit.  They average 30.3 ppg on the season, and 44.75ppg have come in their 4 games against shitty defenses.  An fcs foe, and 3 defenses that rank 119th, 118th, and 127th in yards per play. Marshall ranks 24th in that category.  Against top ypp defenses FAU is 1-3, and scoring only 15.75ppg.  Last week they scored 28 vs. UTEP, which looks great, but it’s misleading thus giving us value in this spot with Marshall.  FAU pulled off the upset, but they were outgained 436 to 279 in the game.  Marshall has a huge advantage on the defensive line ranking 6th in pressure rank while FAU Ranks 113th in protecting their QB.  Against the top 2 pressure rate defenses, Air Force & UAB, FAU scored a total of 21 points, and N’kosi Perry had 1 passing TD and 4 INT’s.

Marshall has had turnover issues, and that’s really the story here, and while FAU has been able to force turnovers, I don’t see Marshall having issues, because they are going up against arguably the worst run defense they have faced all year.  FAU ranks 107th in epa run defense, 102nd in defensive ypc.  Very similar to FIU team that they beat 38-0 last week.  FIU also had a good running team, and Marshall who had been struggling to stop the run seemed to fix the issues in their bye really holding FIU in check to 108 yards on 31 carries and 0 points.  Marshall’s offense had 10 rushing TD’s in their last two games while scoring 49 and 38 points.  FAU is not going to be able to stop the run, and Grant Wells is fully capable of passing the ball, while FAU ranks 111th at getting pressure.  Marshall has dominated their trips into the state of Florida over the past decade and it is very important that they continue that as they recruit a ton of players from the state.

Arkansas -4 2.2% play

Arkansas comes into this game well rested, and well prepared, and the style of defense they play should give Miss State’s pass offense issues.  They had 3 int’s in last year’s game and this defense is much improved, they are 34th in epa pass defense, 20th in QB rating defense, 35th ins uccess rate defense, and they are only allowing 31.25% conversions on third downs, and 42% of red zone trips at home to end in a TD. 

On the flip side Miss State’s defense has been stout, but they are now on the road facing a fresh team that can run the ball and pass, and have a dual threat QB who can score in the red zone.  Arkansas is the far more balanced team, and they are hungry for an SEC win.  They also get the extra time to come up with a plan and study the route tree of Mike Leach’s offense, which is always an advantage for an opposing defense.  It’s very similar to facing the triple option, you aren’t used to seeing it but when you do have extra time it’s a benefit, and I don’t think it’s being calculated into the number.  Barry Odom’s defense also plays 3 DL and drops guys in coverage so if they can force some TO’s again they win this game by 7.  Part of the reason Miss State beat Kentucky was they forced 4 turnovers, but Arkansas ranks 10th in offensive possession TO%.

Purdue +3 3.3% play

Michigan State off a huge come from behind win against their rival Michigan and they are 8-0 maybe looking ahead on their schedule past Purdue?  I love the match up here and we saw struggles from Michigan State on the road against Rutgers it was a 14-13 game late in the 2nd quarter before Michigan State’s WR Nailor hit them with a 65 yard reception.  In fact Rutgers gave up 63, 65, and 63 yard TD’s to Nailor and a 94 yard run.  Purdue is 9th in 10+ yard plays allowed, and rank 11th in epa pass defense, and Nailor is ? for this game.  They went on the road to face Indiana, and were outgained, but came away with the 20-15 win, because Indiana could not score in the red zone.  Purdue could have much of the same issues that Indiana had, but I think Purdue’s offense which is pass heavy matches up well against the weakness of Michigan State, which is their pass defense.  Michigan State ranks 113th in 10+ yard passing plays allowed while Purdue ranks 12th in 10+ yard passing plays.  I think David Bell has a big game, and Purdue just got back Sr. veteran Anthrop to add some depth.  Purdue 19-7 ATS last 26 as a dog, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a home dog, the dog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and Purdue already proven they can win these big games against ranked opponents as they knocked off Iowa on the road with ease.  We were on that game and we are on Purdue here.  

TCU +7 -120 2% play  / TCU +210 1% PLAY

TCU fired Gary Patterson, but offered him to finish the season and he declined.  However, he has been around practice helping with the defense, and Jerry Kill takes over as HC who has been here before.  I see him trying to get a win for his dear friend GP.  Plenty of talent still on TCU, and they’re a TD home dog in a rivalry game where the dog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two.

TCU still has a top 25 offense, and while Baylor’s defense has been great they really have only played Iowa State who had a top 30 pass and run offense.  Iowa State put up 29 points and nearly doubled Baylor in yards, but still lost at Baylor.  Actually, the only top offenses that Baylor has faced they have done so at home winning 38-24 over BYU, 31-29 over Iowa State, 31-24 over Texas, trailed 21-10 in the third quarter.  I see no reason why TCU can’t rally to beat an undefeated Baylor who could be looking ahead to Oklahoma next week at home.  TCU really has nothing to lose, and this is a Baylor defense that allowed Texas State who ranks 118th in ypp to score 20 points.  Baylor has not really played anyone on the road and their only loss came on the road at Oklahoma St. 

Okl St / West Virginia Under 49 2.2% play

This has been a defensive game the last two years, and I think it remains that way this year.  West Virginia’s defensive strength is their run defense, and Oklahoma State wants to run the ball 62% of the time.  Oklahoma State’s offense has really struggled on the road scoring just 21 at Boise, 21 at Iowa State, and the 32 at Texas was a bit misleading. 

West Virginia has put up points in back to back weeks, but Oklahoma State’s defense poses a different threat.  Against Iowa State they also played nearly a perfect game going 9-15 on third down, and 4-5 in the red zone.  I don’t think that will continue, and Oklahoma State has held this offense in check the last two years.  Oklahoma State ranks 33rd in success rate defense, 14th in epa run defense, and 19th in epa pass defense.  West Virginia is 110th in seconds per play, and I think we are getting an inflated line based on recent results form both teams including Oklahoma State’s 55 points a week ago against a bad Kansas team. West Virginia is also elite in red zone defense allowing just 35% TD’s, while Oklahoma State checks in at 50%, and both teams are outside the top 50 in explosive offense while the defenses both rank in the top 30 in explosive plays allowed.

Auburn +4.5 2.2% play

Exactly who has Texas AM beat other than the big win against Alabama in which they were out gained by over 140 yards?  Kent State (-1.1 YPP), Colorado (-2.3 YPP), New Mexico (-1.4 YPP), Missouri (-0.6 YPP), and South Carolina (-0.6 YPP), Alabama (+1.7 ypp)  and they lost to Arkansas and Miss State (+0.1).  The Alabama win was certainly impressive, but they were out gained in that game.  Their average opponent YPP differential is -0.4.  Auburn meanwhile is +0.9, against a challenign schedule of opponents +0.28.

Auburn has very quietly been playing great football and nobody is talking about it.  They lost 34-10 to Georgia, but if Bo Nix receivers don’t drop those balls it could have been a completely different game.  Maybe nobody is talking about it, because there is no Gus Malzahn coaching controversy?  Bo Nix has played extremely well on the road this year and he’s not getting any credit.  Possibly the best thing Bryan Harsin has done as a HC was bench Nix against Georgia State.  The drops his receivers had earlier in the year seem to have faded, Bo Nix footwork has dramatically improved and he gets another opportunity to prove people wrong. 

From a statistical perspective Auburn is the better offense and has faced the tougher schedule.  Nothing wrong with losing at Penn State in a white out, but being in that game late, and losing to Georgia at home.  I think the Aggies are getting far too much credit for that win over Alabama.  This Texas A&M is nothing special, and while Zach Calzada has played better of late, he’s still nothing special completing just 55.3% of his passes, 6.6 yards per pass attempt 12 TD / 7 INT ratio.  Aggies rank 77th in % of offensive possessions ending in a TO, while Auburn ranks 17th.  I think these teams are pretty even, and the game will go down to the wire.  A&M’s defense has been mostly a wall, but where they have shown vulnerabilities is in their run defense specifically against mobile QB’s, which Bo Nix is.  Colorado’s Lewis had 76 rushing yards, KJ Jefferson had 50 in their 20-10 win,  Kent State’s Crum had 60.  Nix the last two years has run the ball 23 times for 87 yards against A&M.  Nothing special, but the difference is he has developed as a passer, and that adds another dynamic to this game.  Bo Nix is clearly the better QB here.

I don’t really see this glaring edge that A&M has in the game other than they have a bye, and they beat Alabama.  You could say Auburn dominated Arkansas while Arkansas dominated Texas A&M.  Auburn won’t be phased by the environment at night at A&M.  They have gone into Death Valley and came back and won, played extremely well at Penn State in a white out, and won in front of 73K fans at Arkansas 38-23.

Memphis +4.5

SMU off a dream crushing loss against Houston as they gave up a 100 yard kickoff return for a TD.  Still we have over 70% of the action on SMU here against a 4 loss Memphis team that’s off a bye +1 extra day.  QB Seth Henigan is still ? here with a hand injury, but I think he will go, but if he doesn’t, Memphis will definitely have a better game plan for the dual threat Parish in this game, and he’ll get to go up against a pass defense that ranks 117th in epa compared to UCF who ranked 28th.

SMU was undefeated, and now they need help to get into the AAC Championship game.  I think they are a bit over rated when you consider their opponent average ypp differential is -1.01, and they are only +0.8 ypp.  Compare that with Memphis who is +1 ypp vs. -0.5.  Memphis YPP differential is better than Houston’s.  SMU also needs to be able to run the ball on the road in order to win.  They average just 2 ypc against Houston, and last year in their losses they averaged 2.79 ypc compared to over 5 in their wins, and in 2019 they average over a yard less in their losses than their wins.  Memphis defensive strength is their run defense, and they haeld both Navy and Texas San Antonio’s running games in check at the Liberty Bowl.  Navy ran 65 times for just 198 yards, while UTSA ran 62 for 205.  SMU obviously passes the ball more, but I like Memphis with the extra week to prepare to come in with a good game plan, and I think their offense will be able to score some points against a defense that ranks 90th in YPP, and that is coming against an average offensive opponent ranking 87th.  Memphis ranks 30th.  I think UCF is better than SMU, and I think Memphis is better than Houston.  Tons of value here at +4.

Nebraska +14.5 1.1% play

Buy low situation on Nebraska.  If you take away the name, and look at the stats Nebraska should not be a 14.5 point dog at home.  They are +1.7 ypp against an opponent ypp diff of +0.125.  Oregon is +1.3 against +0.11.  Ohio State ranks 10th in rushing ypc defense, but they have faced an average rush ypc ranked 82.  The two teams that were good at running the ball scored 31 and 35 points against them in Oregon and Minnesota.  Adrian Martinez has to play his best game and avoid the turnovers for Nebraska to win this game, and possibly save Scott Frost’s job.

Ohio State has shown some weaknesses over the season.  They have struggled against mobile QB’s, Anthony Brown had 10 carries for 65 yards.  Martinez is better at running the ball, and Nebraska has never had issues running the ball on Ohio State the last two years.  Ohio State also has had trouble guarding TE’s and the middle of the field.  Nebraska’s Austin Allen should have a big game here.  Nebraska ranks 26th in epa run defense.  Ohio State really struggled on OL vs. Penn State running the ball in the red zone as they went 1-6.  Nebraska has been very good in red zone defense especially at home where they have held opponents to just 38%.  There are a lot of great things at play here to think that Nebraska will stay in this game.  They have lost 6 games, but all six have been by single digits with 4 of those 6 on the road.  They’re at home here, and will have a chance to pull of a major upset.  We should get max effort from Nebraska.

Army +3 -115 2.5% play  

Low total here and the total has gone under 39-9-1 the last 49 meetings.   This game will be on a neutral field in Arlington Texas.  I think that will help Army as they won’t have to travel to play at elevation, which they typically had problems with in the past when traveling on the road to face Air Force.  I think Jeff Monken has sort of figured out Air Force, and Army has taken 3 of the last 4 meetings, and the last 4 have been decided by 3, 4, 3 pts.  Looking at the past 3 match ups between these two I don’t really see any glaring difference that would allow Air Force to win this one going away.  Army has faced a far tougher schedule, and while they are off 3 straight losses, that’s giving us extra value here.  The last three games were against Ball State,  last year’s MAC Champion, Wisconsin, and Wake Forest, the #9 team in the country.  They also played all 3 teams tight, and had to do it without their leading rusher, and QB Christian Anderson.  It’s no surprise that 5 turnovers happened over those 3 games.  Anderson has been practicing and will play against Air Force.  Last year Anderson rushed 18 times for 85 yards vs. Air Force, and in 2019 he missed the game and Army lost. 

Haazig Daniels is not 100% and is questionable, but will likely go at QB for Air Force, and last year he threw 3 interceptions against Army.  Army’s defense looks worse than last year overall, but I think some of that relates to the strength of competition.  They have faced two top 10 ypp offenses already.  This will be an entertaining game, and if Air Force wins they’ll get the Commander-N-Chief Trophy, but I trust Jeff Monken.  Air Force had and extra week to prepare last year and lost 7-10, in 2017 Monken had an extra week to prepare and they beat Air force 21-0.  Both teams come into the game with extra time and I think Monken is the better coach.  Army has outgained Air force by over 100 yards in 3 of the last 4 match ups and are +5 TO margin.

Boston College +135 5.5% MAX POD

I'm taking BC on the money line here.  There are stron grumors that Phil Jurkovec will be back at QB tonight for the Red Bandana Game.  Red Bandana game is something that BC players have in their brain all season.  They ahve Red Bandana practice drills, and we know we will get a max effort out of Boston College.  Boston College has the better run defense, and rushing offense in my opinion and if Jurkovec is back it will be another boost for a struggling offense.  They also lost to Virginia Tech on the road 40-14 last year, but it was a 17-14 game in the 3Q.  Boston College had 5 turnovers in the game.  They have only turned the ball over 3 times at home this season.  

Boston College has struggle dlosign 4 in a row, and the last two have been really bad, but those games were on the road, and against Louisville and Syracuse who have an elite part of their offense.  Both rank top 25 in rushing offense, and have a good running defense to go along with it making it a challenging task.  Virginia Tech on the other hand ranks 90th in epa run offense, and 122nd in epa run defense, they also rank 92nd in epa passing offense.  I'm not a big fan of Braxton Burmeister at QB.  He's a heck of an athlete and a threat in the running game, but until recently has not been a good QB on the road.

Ohio +7 2.2% play 

Fresno State +100 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

Fresno is by far the more balanced team especially on offense, while San Diego State is 105th in ypp, and that has come against an opponent ypp differential of -0.7.  Fresno State is 42nd in ypp offense, and 35th in ypp defense, and it has come against an opponent with an average ypp differential of 0.08.  Fresno beat UCLA on the road and shut down their rushing offense, that is far superior to San Diego State’s.  That was not a fluke as they also shut down Oregon’s rushing offense, and lost by only 7 points on the road.  I think we are getting some line value, because Fresno lost to Hawaii on the road, but they had 6 turnovers in that game.  With 16 turnovers on the season is concerning, but 12 of the 16 have come against Oregon, UCLA, and Hawaii who all rank in the top 25 on defensive TO % per possession.  As good as San Diego State is they rank 120th in defensive to % per possession.  Fresno who ranks 20th on defense in the category will actually have the advantage here as San Diego State ranks 109th in % of their possessions ending in TO’s.

Fresno is the best defense San Diego State has faced thus far ranking 18th in success rate defense, 40th in epa run defense, and 17th in epa pass defense.  On the flip side Fresno is the best offense that San Diego State has faced.  San Diego State has not faced a single team that can pass as their average opponent epa pass offense ranks 99.1.  I believe this is the game that San Diego State’s offense finally catches up with them.  It’s also not easy defensively the week after playing a triple option offense.  Fresno wins on the road.

Virginia +2.5 3.3% play

Bronco Mendenhall return to Prov where spent more than a decade coaching BYU.  Mendenhall only left, because he wanted the University to join the Big 12 and not remain Independent.  Now BYU is going to the Big 12.  Whether he holds any animosity, I don’t know, but I know that BYU was near and dear to his heart and had family who played for the BYU.  This game clearly will mean a bit extra to him.

BYU is ranked, but I don’t think they are quite as good.  They’re getting a ton of credit for their 4-0 record vs. the PAC12, but this is a different type of match up against Virginia who has arguably the best QB in the nation in Brennan Armstron, and they are playing FAST, ranking 27th at 23.4 seconds per play.  BYU’s pass defense has shown vulnerabilities, and they really have not played anybody that passes the ball 65% of the time so I expect this will be a bit of a culture shock.  Washington State passes 58% of the time but BYU got them the week after their HC was fire and they only won by 2.  Washington State also plays slow, offering BYU plenty of time to regroup defensively.  Baylor who put 38 points up on BYU, also plays very slow, Utah, Arizona State also very slow.  This will be a big challenge for BYU’s defense, as Virginia is 15th in success rate, 18th in epa run offense, 13th in epa passing offense.  Virginia is also #1 in the nation in 10+ and 20+ yard plays while BYU is 105th in allowing 10+ yard plays.

Virginia’s defense has been bad, because of their offense, but they have been great in red zone defense allowing just 44% TD’s.  If they can avoid the big plays here, and I think they can do a better job than they have, because Bronco is very familiar with this coaching staff that was here under him, and he recruited Jaren Hall.  Virginia is flying under the radar and so is their QB Brennan Armstrong.  They have a bye after this game, and a lot to prove in my opinion and I expect them to win this game outright.

North Carolina +3.5 3.3% play

This is the first game North Carolina is not a favorite this year and while it has been a very disappointing year they get a chance here off the bye to have some positive momentum by going into Notre Dame and winning.  This is not the same Notre Dame team as last year as they rank 96th in ypp, and North Carolina’s defense is actually improved compared to last year’s unit.  They rank 60th in ypp against an average opponent ypp offense 57.  Compare that to last year’s North Carolina defense ranking 70th, vs an avy ypp off 72. 

North Carolina’s offense has taken a step back, but they are playing with no pressure here.  They’re not expected to win, and I think they can have some success.  This is by far the best offense Notre Dame has faced to date, and we have seem some vulnerabilities this season with this defense.  They were actually outgained last week vs. USC,  they gave up 291 passing yards to Purdue, 297 to Cinci, and 299 to USC.  Now they have to play without Kyle Hamilton, a consensus top 10 pick in the NFL draft next year.  Notre Dame held USC to 16 points, but North Carolina runs a different offense with 13% more runs in their RPO heavy attack.  North Carolina also off the bye, and should be putting all their effort into this game.  They had an extra week to prepare in last year 17-31 loss, but so did Notre Dame, and Notre Dame was undefeated.  Here Notre Dame is off their rivalry game with USC, and they just aren’t the same team.  I think this will be a tight game and North Carolina will have a chance to win the game outright.  At worse they have a chance for the backdoor cover late.

Auburn -3 3.3% play 

This is a brutal stretch for Ole Miss, and they have to go on the road to face a very under rated Auburn team that is coming off a bye.  Ole Miss is banged up without both their starting Guards, and 3 of their top 5 receivers are either out or questionable for this game.  Matt Corral is having a fantastic season, but his QB is 56 points lower in road games, and Ole Miss for all the hype they get have played just 3 top 50 defenses since last year and have gone 1-2 in those games.

Auburn ranks 26th in run defense, and should be able to hold Ole Miss in check at least in the red zone especially with Ole Miss missing their starting guards, and Auburn’s defense has the speed on the outside.  ON the flip side Ole Miss has made strides on defense, but they still rank 117th in success rate and 110th in epa run defense.  Tank Bigsby off the bye should be a lot fresher and I really have enjoyed Bo Nix this season.  Nix has over come being benched in the Georgia State game and has really put together arguably his best performances of his career.  The road game against Arkansas was the best he’s ever played and he again will face a bad defense, and he gest to do so at home.  Auburn flying under the radar right now, they seemed to have fixed some of the issues with drops by their receivers and they should win this game by 7 or more!

Boise State -2.5 2% play 

Colorado State has not beaten anyone, and they’re 0-10 vs. Boise State, with an average spread of 17.6 points, but why is the spread only 2.5 points?  Boise has lost 4 games this season, but Colorado State lost to Vanderbilt at home for cyring out loud.  Boise State has by far played a tougher schedule with BYU, Oklahoma St, and UCF (healthy) in their non-conference schedule.  All 4 of Boise State’s losses came against good offenses, and Colorado State just does not constitute as a good offense.  They rank 87th in ypp, 83rd in ypc, 95th in success rate, there Is not a single category that they rank top 50 in.  They want to run the ball but they rank 110th in epa run. 

Colorado State’s defense especially the defensive line has been great with 30 sacks they rank 3rd in ypp defense, and 2nd in sack %, but who have they played?  The average epa pass offense ranks 93rd.  Boise State has a QB, they protect him pretty well and they rank 50th in epa pass offense and that has come against a very challenging group of defenses on the year.  Boise State off a bye here, and 3-0 ATS on the road.  I think they’ll be able to stop the run, and move the chains on offense with their passing game.  Colorado State has held opponents to 26% on third down, but the average opponent third down offense converting only 33%.  Boise comes into the game converting 45.71% of their third downs.  HC Steve Addazio is just not a great coach and he threw his players under the bus after the loss at Utah State last week.  Ironically Utah State was the best passing offense they faced all year and they rank 81st in QB Rating.

Florida +14.5 2%

If you don’t look at the records, and blank out the teams the stats are pretty close between these two. Georgia ranks 9th in ypp offense, Florida ranks 3rd.  Georgia ranks #1 in ypp defense, and Florida ranks 23rd.  Florida’s defensive number surprised me a bit when looking at this match up and they have clearly faced a tougher schedule of offenses.  I just can’t forget about how Georgia looked against Clemson to open the season winning 10-3, on a pick six. 

Florida under Dan Mullen has seemed to play up/down depending on the competition.  Dan Mullen off a bye should be able to put together a game plan to put some points on the board, and Kirby Smart has been known to be extremely conservative in big games, and I don’t know if that changes here.  Georgia has not been explosive in their running game with only 2 rushes over 30 yards, and Florida has only allowed 1 rush over 30 yard all season.  Georgia is 83rd in epa run offense, and that’s the route they will use to attack Florida.  They’ll be able to move the ball, but they rank 121st at 29 sec/play, it will be hard to cover a 14 point spread with Florida also running the ball and keeping this clock moving.

Both teams have QB controversies, but Florida’s group is much more dynamic, but also more turnover worthy.  I think we will see more of Anthony Richardson, while Georgia will probably get JT Daniels back in the mix, but Daniels has struggled against top defenses, and Florida ranks 21st in epa pass defense, and 19th in sack %.

Iowa State -7 2.2% play 

I backed West Virginia +4.5 last week and they won outright on the road against TCU, a very bad defense.  West Virginia will return home to play Iowa State, a defense built to stop the style of offense West Virginia runs.  West Virginia under Neal Brown needs to run the ball.  This year 4.71ypc in wins, 2.60 in losses, and last year 4.64 ypc in wins, but 2.10 in losses.  The last two years they have run for a total of 95 yards in 2 games vs. Iowa State and have lost 20-80.  Just like Matt Campbell has struggled against Iowa State, he has owned West Virginia and Neal Brown.  West Virginia under Neal Brown has faced 9 top 50 ypp defenses, and they have gone 1-8 in those games averaging just 13.8 points per game, and have lost on average by 21.8 ppg.

Where is West Virginia’s edge in this game? I just don’t see it, and Iowa State is playing with a ton of momentum right now.  They are an experienced team on a quest to get back to the Big 12 Championship.  West Virginia’s weakness vs. the pass ranking 98th in epa is alarming, and Iowa State is balanced offensively.  The last balanced offense West Virginia faced was Baylor who beat them 45-20.  Iowa State outgained Baylor on the road by 200+ yards.  Iowa State wins in a blow out.

Michigan / Michigan State U51 - 3.3% play 

Texas +3 -120 3% PLAY

Baylor had all the momentum with back to back impressive wins over West Virginia and BYU, and that is not when you want to go on a bye.  Texas off back to back losses and in a tough three game stretch having faced TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St, and that’s the exact time you want to go on a bye.

On paper Baylor look sto have the better run offense and defense, but Baylor’s rushing attack has feasted on poor run defense.  75% of their yards and TD’s have come against an average epa run defense ranked 110th + FCS foe, who they had 400 yards rushing.  Texas clearly not a defensive juggernaut ranking 112thn in epa run defense, but they have faced an average epa run offense ranking 41st.  They’ve proven that they can keep good rushing attacks in check as they held TCU and Texas Tech under 200 yards rushing.

Baylor has faced only two offenses who can run the ball in Iowa State and Oklahoma State.  They lost by 10 to Oklahoma St, and against Iowa State they were outgained by 200+ yards and were extremely lucky to get the win.  Texas also has the added dynamic of a running QB, and we saw Oklahoma State’s Spencer Sanders run for 76 yards against Baylor.

TO’s and special teams are pretty even between these two, and while I do give Baylor some home field advantage it’s not quite as tough when they host a team from Texas.  Why?  Texas fans travel, and you don’t have the added advantage of the weather

Iowa +3.5 1.1% play 

I feel like we are getting an extra point of value here.  Iowa lost to Purdue, and Wisconsin beat Purdue so it seems so easy to just take Wisconsin here.  I’m not going to over react to recency bias as Wisconsin has always dominated Purdue, and Purdue under Jeff Brohm has dominated Iowa.  I’m sure if Purdue played Wisconsin first then Iowa things would have been a little different.

The total is as low as you will see at 36, and that just makes the 3.5 much more valuable.  Points will be at a premium with these two stout defenses I will look at some of the intangibles or hidden factors in this game to be that more valuable as well.  Iowa has two major advantages in this game in addition to coming off a bye.  They rank 2nd in forcing turnovers at 20% of opponent possessions ending in TO’s.  Wisconsin’s offense ranks 126th in percentage of their possessions ending in a TO at 18.8%.  Special Teams is another huge facto here for as Iowa ranks 2nd in overall special teams while Wisconsin ranks 90th, and have had issues with muffed punts, and have given up a kickoff return TD. 

I also think Iowa has the edge at QB with Petras who has not been amazing, but Graham Mertz has been completely awful this year and Wisconsin ranks 129th in epa pass offense.  I like Iowa’s offense to come up with some creative ways to score some points in this game especially with extra time to prepare.  Iowa is 15-9 ATS since 2006 with extra time to prepare averaging 28.4ppg, and have had only 5 games where they scored 14 points or less.

Rutgers –120 3% play 

This is about as poor of a situation as a team could be in with Illinois off a 9 OT game, and a huge upset over Penn State as a 24.5 point dog facing a team coming off a bye.  I also like Rutgers in the match up as Rutgers ranks 25th in epa run defense, and that has come against an average opponent epa run offense ranking 47.8.  All Illinois can do is run the ball, and while they rank 42nd in epa run, against a tough schedule they are just 1-3 when facing a top 50 run defense.  Rutgers held two run first opponents who have better rushing attacks in Syracuse and Michigan to season lows in rushing yards and points, and both of those games were on the road. 

Syracuse only managed 7 points -23pts off their season average, and they rushed for only 67 yards and 2.23 ypc, which is -175 yards and -3.43 ypc from their season average.  Michigan managed only 20 points -17.7 off their season average, and 112 rushing yards which was -141 yards off their season average.  Both of those offenses have better passing offenses, and better run defenses than Illinois.  If that holds true in this game Illinois will score in the single digits.  Now I know I’m cherry picking two teams, but Syracuse and Michigan are the closest to Illinois.  Rutgers did struggle stopping the run in their two games before the bye, but it was clear they were just worn out from the 3 game streak of having to play 3 TOP 10 teams in Michigan, Ohio St, and Michigan St.

Rutgers offense should be able to move the ball a bit here in my opinion.  While they have struggled at time it is closely related to the strength of schedule.  Illinois has been solid on defense, but they have had issues containing mobile QB’s.  Charlotte’s QB who is not very mobile rushed for 35 yards, Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong had 31 yards on only 5 carries.  Adrian Martinez had 111 yards, and UTSA’s Frank Harris had 33 on 8 carries.  Rutgers, QB Vedral should be able to score some points here and I feel Illinois is going to really struggle offensively.

Indiana +175 2% play

Indiana is down to their 3rd string QB here and the line jumped 3 points, which I don’t think is warranted.  Donaven McCulley will take over at QB, and he’s the #2 prospect out of the state of Indiana last year, a 4* QB with dual threat capability and is going to give this offense an added dimension offensively.  Maryland in my opinion really does not deserve to be nearly a TD favorite against anyone.  They don’t have a home field advantage really, and Indiana has faced a far tougher schedule.

Indiana’s average opponent defense faced ranks 22.5 from a YPP perspective, and their opponent YPP differential is +1.68.  Maryland’s defense is 83rd in ypp, 104th in success rate.  They have played teams that are elite offensively and defensively.  Only 3 other teams have faced an average opponent ypp differential of +1, and the nation average is +0.01yard.  Maryland comes into this game +0 ypp differential, but it’s honestly worst since they lost 2 of their top WR, and their schedule got tougher.  Some of Maryland’s #’s are from earlier in the season when they were at full strength.  Indiana dealing with injuries too, but I feel they have a coaching advantage here, and they have proven that by winning the last two match ups the past two years.  The past two years they have been able to run the ball extremely well +2 ypc compared to their season average, and I expect they will get the running game going here again today.  Maryland really does not have a significant advantage in this game and I’m going with the better coached team with the better overall defense.

South Florida +10 3.3% play 

NC State -3 3.3% play

I wanted to get out in front of this as it's going to go to -3.5 I believe.  I faded Miami their last two games and I'm fading them again here.  I just don't think Manny Diaz is a good coach, and now at 2-4.  They're missing their QB King for the rest of the season, and their top two RB's and now go against arguably the best defense they have faced all year, and a team that is playing for an ACC Championship.  NC State has all the motivation and momentum and a huge coaching advantage here.

NC State also has a little revenge here after losing at home 44-41, but Cam'ron Harris gone, and D'eriq King is gone.  King went nuts last year with 105 yards rushing and 31-41 430 passing yards 5 TD and 0INT.  While Tyler Van Dyke has been decent so far he has gone against Virginia's defense ranked 105th in YPP, and North Carolina ranked 103rd in EPA pass defense.  NC State is a balanced defense this year ranking 21st in yp, 50th in epa pass defense, and 24th in epa run defense.  NC State is also top 50 in TO % per posession on both sides of the ball, while Miami ranks 118th and 111th.   

GA Tech / Virginia Over 63 2.2% play

Both of these teams like to play fast at 23 seconds per snap.  Virginia’s offense is all about the pass behind Brennan Armstrong and it’s a good match up as Georgia Techs’ defensive strength is against the run.  They rank 6th in epa run defense, but 111th in epa pass defense.  Their defensive strength is not going to help them in this game at all.  For Georgia Tech we saw them score 31 and 45 points against bad defenses, and Virginia clearly constitutes as a bad defense considering they have given up 28+ points in 4 games this season.  Virginia also ranks 91st in epa pass, and 81st in epa run defense.  Georgia Tech has a mobile QB and have shown ability to move the ball at times.  Scoring 45 vs. North Carolina, 21 vs. a good Pitt defense, and 31 vs. Duke.  Georgia Tech also off a bye, and last year they won 46-27 off a bye, and Bronco Mendenhall could be a little bit focused on next week’s game against BYU on the road as he returns back to the team he coached for over a decade prior to coming to Virginia.

West Virginia +4.5 3.3% play

It was clear to me that West Virginia was gassed 2 weeks ago before their bye.  They had a challenging schedule and travel, and they just got their ass kicked by Baylor who surprised them with a lot of big plays in the passing game.  The bye week came at a good time for this team to rest up and self scout, and I think they come out with their best game of the season here.  TCU is in the opposite situation where they just got done plays three Texas schools in a row, and then @Oklahoma last week.  What does this team have left? 

The match up also favors West Virginia here as TCU runs 60.65% of the time, but West Virginia's defensive strength is their run defense, which ranks 22nd in ypc, and 25th in epa.  That has come against a challenging schedule of offensese ranked 47.8 in ypc.  TCU is 5th, but they are also banged up a bit as Max Duggan and Chris Evans have foot injuries.  They will play and are probably, bu tyou ahve to question how long until maybe they are impacted by it.  TCU also going up against a top 50 run defense last year averaged 10 points less than their season average and went 1-3, and they are 0-2 this year against top 60 run defenses.  West Virginia is #3 in the nation in tackles for loss, which could help set TCU up in third and long, and West Virginia ranks 27th in sack %.  TCU has protected Duggan well, but they have faced an average 87.4 sack % defense.  

West Virginia's offense has struggled at time this year, but they catch a break facing a tired TCU defense that ranks 125th in ypp, 125th in epa run defense, and 100th in epa pass defense.  West Virginia scored 38, 37, and 27 points last year when they were not playing top defenses. 

Finally, West Virginia 2-4 is desparate for a win. They have a challenging schedule the rest of the way so a bowl game is still in the mix, but it starts with a win here.  TCU at 3-3 is in the same situation of course, but I would argue that West Virginia could sustain that level of energy for longer especially since they are off a bye.  

LA Tech +6 2.2% Free Play

UTSA is #24 team ranked going on the road to play Louisiana Tech who lost this game on the road by 1 point.  I think this is a good match up for Louisiana Tech’s offense, which relies on the passing attack, and that aligns with the weakness of UTSA’s defense, which ranks 80th in QB rating defense, and 52nd in epa pass defense.  Louisiana Tech put up 34 points against a good Miss State defense, and 27 against a good NC State defense.

UTSA’s offense relies on their running game, and that also matches up well with Louisiana Tech’s defensive strength.  Louisiana Tech is 70th in ypc, but their epa run defense ranks 34th.  Their defense also has the ability to force turnovers ranking 34th in defensive turnover % per possession.  The problem has been their offense also turns the ball over.   If QB Austin Kendall can play a cleaner game at home Louisiana Tech wins this game outright.  Skip Holtz has been a money printing machine as a dog over his career.

Fresno State -3 3.3% Free Play

First of all I think we are getting some line value here based on Nevada’s win at Boise, which was a bit misleading when you factor they were +3 in TO margin.  Fresno State also far better team up and down when we put them next to Boise.  Fresno has the more impressive road win at UCLA.

Fresno’s offense likes to pass the ball, and Nevada is not good against the pass.  They’ve faced one team that can pass the ball and Boise lit them up for 388 yards 4 TD’s and 1 INT.  Even New Mex State ranks 106th in epa pass defense passed for 425 yards 3TD’s and 0INTs.  Nevada is going to also pass the ball 63% of the time, and they have a supposed NFL QB in Carson Strong who is not 100% right now.  Nevada really has not played a balanced defense like Fresno.  Fresno is 14th in success rate defense, 22nd at QB sack %, they’re 45th vs. the run, and 10th in epa pass defense.  Kansas State very good run defense, but struggles vs. the pass held them to 17 points.  Fresno also played extremely well at Oregon only losing by a TD and they’re home here.

Boston College +4.5 2.2 %pla y

Clemson +3.5 3.3% play

Clearly a value play here.  The last 3 meetings the spread has been 21.5, 27, and 24, and pre-season this spread was -17.5, and we have seen a 3 TD move.  Clemson also 0-6 ATS this season while Pitt is 5-1 ATS.  Clemson has faced by far the tougher schedule at this point their opponent ypp differential is +0.88 compared to Pitt’s opponents who are -0.42, and they faced Tennessee at the right time, which was the beginning of the season.  For me this game is all about Kenny Pickett at QB for Pitt.  That is their one true advantage in this game, and the knock on Pickett is he does not perform well against good defenses.  Clemson constitutes as a great defense, and they’re getting their best coverage corner Andrew Booth back this week.

Let’s dig deep into Pickett’s struggles at QB against top defenses, these are defenses that on average are top 50 blended in variety of categories like ypp, epa pass, epa run, ypc run, qbr.  He’s faced 11 opponents over the last 4 seasons, and he’s thrown just 7 passing TD’s in those games and 9 interceptions.  He’s only recorded 1 game where he averaged more than 6 yards per pass attempt, which to put that in perspective would be 113th in the country.  In his two games against Clemson he was 26-55, 217 yards 2 TD’s and 5 INT’s.  Pickett this season has faced a blended average defense of 71.92, so his numbers are great, but we saw some struggles from years past show up last week vs. Virginia Tech he was only 22-37 203 yards 5.5 yards per pass attempt 2 td/ 0int.  He was lucky to have the running game to help him out in their 28-7 win, Va Tech is 98th in run defense.  Clemson is top 20 in all of these categories. 

Clemson’s offense has been terrible and we really can’t deny that, but..DJ had his best game last week, and I feel like Clemson has found something in the running game with Kobe Pace who over the last two games has rushed 32 times for 201 yards and 2 TD’s.  Pitt’s defense showed some weakness in their pass defense at times this year and rank 61st in EPA pass defense.  These are two of the slowest offenses snaps per second in the country, and I just don’t see how Pitt can win this game by more than 3 points.

Iowa State -6.5 -120 2.5% play

We have an undefeated and #9 team in the country on the road against a 4-2 unranked team and they are a TD dog and they both play in the Power 5.  I’m going with the Iowa State side here as they are clearly the better team from a metric perspective.  Oklahoma State should have lost last week as they were down 17-3 with Texas in the red zone, and Texas threw a pick six with 5 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter, a 14 point swing in the game, and Texas just ran out of gas from the week before against Oklahoma as Oklahoma State scored 16 4th quarter points to pull the upset.  I have tremendous respect for Gundy and we have backed them several time already this year, but this is just not the spot in my opinion.

Iowa State’s two losses were very misleading and now they don’t look as bad as Baylor has really been great, and Iowa was just the #2 ranked team, and Iowa State outgained those two teams by 166 yards, and 194 yards.  Iowa State’s biggest issues have been special teams and TO margin, and it could hurt them again here, but I don’t think it will.  Iowa State is a very balanced team top 20 in all other categories and one of the few teams in the top 10 in epa/play offense and defense.

Oklahoma State’s offense ranks 95th in ypp offense, and 92nd in success rate, and while Jaylen Warren has been a beast running the ball they’ve gone up against a weak opponent defense ranking on average 74.2.  When we look at the defenses this team has played they have only faced one team that ranks top 50 in epa pass or run defense.  That was Baylor who ranked 36th in epa pass defense, but 77th in epa run defense.  Spencer Sanders in that game threw 3 INT, but Oklahoma State still escaped with the victory.  Iowa State is top 20 in both run and pass defense, and Sanders is going to have to be great to cover this spread.  This is just the third time in his career he’s facing a defense that is top 50 vs. the run and pass on average, and previous 2 games he has 2 passing TD’s and 3 INT. 

Iowa State’s offense is very experienced and they remember losing the last two years to Oklahoma State. I think they have a very good home field advantage and with a chance to “upset” a top 10 team the team is very aware of the spread and I think they will definitely want to cover it here.

Oregon +1.5 3.3% play

Both of these teams are pretty even statistically speaking, and both want to run the ball first. When I look at this game I feel the wrong team is favored and it’s due to recency bias.  You have UCLA who just won back to back road games and the most recent at Washington, and Oregon barely got by CAL, and lost to Stanford.  Both these teams are very good running the ball and good at stopping the run.  Oregon has done it and won against tougher competition, lets look at that.

Oregon has faced two run defenses similar to UCLA from a run defense perspective.  Ohio State and Fresno State, and they rushed for 6 TD’s including 269 vs. Ohio State.  Ohio State 24th in epa run defense against an average epa run offense ranking 76th.  UCLA ranks 30th in epa run defense vs. an average epa run offense of 76.  Oregon against their two opponents who are good at running the ball like UCLA, Cal and Ohio St.  They won both games and only gave up 1 rushing TD.  You may want to laugh at Cal, but they rank 7th in epa rushing offense, and I know it’s come against an average opponent epa run defense of 97th, but UCLA’s 21st ranked epa rushing offense came against an average opponent epa run defense ranking 83rd.  To put that in perspective Oregon ranks 13th, vs an opponent average epa run defense of 69.6.

UCLA has faced only one team even close to run defense as Oregon, and it was Fresno State.  That defense held UCLA to 117 yards, and UCLA lost the game.  UCLA has only faced one offense close to Oregon’s rushing attack, and that’s Arizona State with a mobile QB as well.  They lost that game at home 42-23, and Jayden Daniels had 45 yards rushing and I expect Anthony Brown can help his team the same.  Oregon in my opinion despite last year should control the game in the trenches.  I don’t trust UCLA’s QB to play a clean game, and Oregon is top 20 in limiting and forcing turnovers when we look at % of drives ending in a TO, where UCLA ranks 56th, and 57th.  Oregon with a lot of value here and is very much still in the playoff discussion and has more talent.  This just seems to be the type of game that HC Cristobal gets his players to step up for with Gameday in attendance on the day.

Kansas State -105 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD

This is a max effort game for Kansas State who is the more desparate team having lost 8 straight Big 12 games, and Chris Kleinman’s seat has gotten hot.  However, they just lost to the 3 best teams in the conference in Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State.  They have actually owned Texas Tech winning 9 of the last 10 match ups, and I expect Texas Tech who is just one win shy of a bowl game already to be a little more content.

This is also the type of game Texas Tech loses.  They lose against opponents that can run the ball and take them out of their flow on offense.  The run defense has allowed 2.61 ypc in wins, and 7.37 in losses to TCU and Texas.  Kansas State is every bit in that mix of quality rushing offenses led by Deuce Vaughn who had 113 yards on only 16 carries in this match up last year.  Kansas State ranks 40th in ypc, and 63rd in epa rush offense, but they have done it against a tough schedule.  An average opponent ypc defense ranking 47th.  Their last 3 losses have come against Oklahoma State, 18th in ypc defense, Oklahoma 6th in epa run defense, and Iowa State 20th in epa run defense.  Texas Tech ranks 101st in ypc defense, and 109th in epa run defense and it doesn’t hurt that some of Kansas State’s rankings came when they were without Skylar Thompson for two games.  Even Kansas was able to run the ball against Tech 145 yards on 33 carries.

Texas Tech has a veteran QB in Columbi, but there is a reason he lost the starting job to transfer Tyler Shough.  Columbi needs the big play to put up points, and Kansas State’s defense, which has not been good against the pass at least ranks 37th in 20+ yard passing plays allowed.  I think Columbi gets a bit impatient and forces some passes here.  Kansas State also has beaten two top 50 passing offenses and held them to season low in points in Stanford and Nevada and they have only allowed 7 passing TD’s in 6 games.  Tech has shown some balance in the running game and that’s probably why they are favorites here, but it’s flawed.  4 out of the top 5 are outside the top 80 in epa run defense.  Kansas State ranks 52nd in epa run defense, and 28th in ypc.  Houston was the only other top 50 run defense, but their average opponent epa run offense faced was 102.2, so they’re flawed.  This is the best defense that Tech has played all year.

There is another advantage here for Kansas State and that is special teams where they rank 12th in the country compared to Texas Tech’s 100th ranking.

Washington -17.5 2.2% play 

UCF +115 5.5% NCAAF POD

Let’s talk about the short rest for UCF? I’m not concerned, because they get so much energy from their home crowd, known as the “Bounce House.”  Memphis does have an extra couple days to prepare for this game, but I think traveling down to UCF where it’s 80 degrees and over 60% humidity is going to be a challenge.  Memphis has really struggled on the road in front of crowds of 19,500, 28,500, and 17,500 this season, and they’ll see 42,000 in a loud stadium on Friday night at the Bounce House.  Memphis QB Seth Henigan is also a true freshman, and while he’s been lights out this is just a different kind of challenge in my opinion.  Henigan also hurt his arm in the last game and he’s listed as probable, but you have to at least think it impacts him some.  Memphis also ranks 90th in percentage of offensive possessions ending in  TO, while UCF’s defense ranks 33rd in forcing those turnovers, which is a HUGE edge in this game.  UCF also much better at stopping the run at home allowing 2.34 ypc compared to the 5.65 on the road, and Memphis is averaging 2.5 ypc less in their losses. 

UCF’s offense without Gabriel really needs to establish the run.  They rank 22nd in ypc, and 4th in epa run offense and they get to go up against a Memphis defense that ranks 92nd in epa run defense, and 94th in epa pass defense.  I just don’t understand how Memphis is favored here.  Isiah Bowser came back last game for UCF and will go here tonight.  Memphis has not faced a top 50 rushing offense.  Their average opponent rushing ypc rank is 92.16.  The best rushing offense they faced was Texas San Antonio and they gave up 205 yards and 3 TD’s.  They also gave up 235 yards to Tulsa on the road who ranks 111th in EPA run offense.  I think UCF can establish the run in this game.  It’s worth noting that Gus Malzahn is 30-3 since 2016 when his team runs for 200+ yards.  Mikey Keane is starting to improve and while he has 4 INT’s on the year he just had to face Cinci’s defense, and here he gets to go back home facing a Memphis defense ranking 98th in QB rating, 94th in epa pass defense, and 129th in TO percentage forced per possession, and he’ll have Bowser and the rushing attack backing him up.  Central Florida wins outright!

Utah -1 2.2% 

This would be a larger play, but my one hesitation is that Utah was at USC last week pulling off the upset, then to Texas for the funeral of another player death.  However, these things tend to bond the team, and they have everything to play for in the PAC 12 being undefeated at this moment.

Both of these teams had similar results against BYU losing on the road.  Arizona State has yet to prove that they can win on the road in a hostile environment.  They’re just 5-8 on the road under Herman Edwards.  They won at UCLA in impressive fashion, but UCLA does not really have an intimidating environment to be honest.  Utah will be loud, and it will be colder (40’s) than Arizona State is used to.  Utah also has a much better defense than UCLA as they can stop the run and stop the pass, where UCLA has been good vs. the run, but they rank 74th in qb rating, 106th in sack %, and 101st in epa pass defense.  Utah ranks 33rd in epa pass defense, 45 in epa run defense, and they have earned those ratings coming against an average opponent offense ranking 38.5.  Arizona State has a good defense too, ranking 17th, but that has come against an average opponent offense ranking 71.6.

Arizona State did play a defense close to Utah on the road and that was their loss at BYU where they put up only 17 points.  Utah did face an offense as good as Arizona State and held USC, a TD under their season average held them to under 100 yards rushing, and gave up a lot of passing yards to Slovis, but held them to 2-4 TD’s in the red zone.  I would argue that USC’s offense is a little better and matches up to the weaknesses of UTAH, and came away very impressed with Utah’s road win last week.  USC has faced tougher schedule of defenses than Arizona State.

Lastly, Utah was missing something earlier in the season, which is why they lost a couple of games, but it seems to me that since Brewer left the team and Cameron Rising took over at QB things have been different.  Rising seems to be at rue leader that the players rally around, and I think he could do enough here to give Arizona State some issues. The season long numbers on Utah are factoring when Brewer was QB, and the offense has gotten better under Rising thus in my opinion giving us some value on Utah.

Air Force +4 2.2% 

Stanford -1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Washington State is very happy with themselves after winning back to back games as a dog, but Oregon State was fat and happy after beating USC and Washington, and traveled all the way up to Washington State to lose 31-24, and that was a different type of match up for Washington State.  Stanford here is off a loss, and has an extra day to prepare and they really need this game for bowl eligibility.  They have a QB in Tanner McKee who is going to give Washington State’s defense some issues.  Washington ST ranks 113th in sack %, and that will allow McKee time to find the receivers.

For Stanford is simple they are 3-0 when they run for more than 100 yards, and 0-3 when they run for 70 or less.  The teams they are 0-3 against and ran for less than 70 yards were UCLA, Kansas State, and Arizona State who rank 19th, 10th, and 7th vs. the run.  Washington State ranks 103rd in rushing ypc defense, and 112th in epa run defense.  Stanford’s run defense, which has struggled has seen them facing 5 top 50 rushing teams.  They lost 3 of those games, and 3 of them have come against athletic QB’s who are a threat to run the ball, and ran for 5 rushing TD’s.  Washington State ranks 96th in ypc and 97th epa run offense, and their QB is not a threat to run.

Stanford also has a special teams advantage here ranking 66th to Washington State’s 114th ranking, and Washington State has been very turnover prone with 12 lost turnovers.   Stanford also has faced the tougher schedule having faced Kansas State in non-conference play compared to Washington ST who faced Utah St.  Stanford also faced arguably the top 3 teams in the PAC 12 – UCLA, Oregon, and Arizona State, while Washington St faced Cal, Oregon St, and Utah, and they have the common opponent of USC, who Stanford beat, and Washington State got crushed by.  Again Washington St has proven they can hang in games when their opponent’s strength is running the ball, but if their opponent has a capable QB they have not.  Stanford’s Tanner McKee has been excellent and really a difference maker for Stanford, and I expect he will have a good game with some balance from the running game.  Stanford did beat Oregon, and I think many are already writing that off.

Tenn / Ole Miss Under 82.5 2.2% play

This is the highest total in SEC history, as Lane Kiffin returns to try to stick it to the team that fired him.  Ole Miss has not won here since 1983, and while I’d like to take them to cover, I’m not so sure it will happen as I mentioned in my podcast. Ole Miss defense which runs the 3-2-6 inviting teams to run is playing a team that runs it 62% of the time, and Lane Kiffin mentioned concerns with some of the key guys taking 90+ snaps last week, and then you have Tennessee who likes to go fast.  I think we have value in the under, because I think Kiffin is going to try to slow this game down a bit.  It’s really tough and you have to have some balls to play the under with these teams, but I also think Tennessee has some issues on their offensive line ranking 124th in protection that could show up here.

Have you ever seen a total this high with two teams that are run first teams?  Both of these teams run the ball first, and run a similar style offense.  That means the two defenses are used to seeing this in practice.  I don’t see this game going crazy like last week’s Arkansas/Ole Miss game, and 67% of the totals that are set at 65 or higher have gone under this year.

Purdue +11.5 3.3% play

This is the 7th straight week of playing football for Iowa, and they just come off a monster game against Penn State, where they were very lucky to win.  Purdue is off a bye, and Jeff Brohm has been excellent in putting together an offensive game plan after a bye he average +7points from what the opponents gives up on the season, which would put them at 20 points here.  Jeff Brohm is also 3-1 vs. Iowa since being at Purdue, and he has put up points 24, 24, 20, and 38.  Part of the reason is Purdue is not afraid to pass and go over the top of this Iowa pass defense, which actually will be without their best corner Riley Moss who leads the nation with 4 INT’s.  David Bell is one of the best WR in the nation, and Iowa has had a tough time stopping him.  Las tyear he had 13 receptions 121 yards, and the year before he had 13 for 197.

Offensively Iowa ranks 114th in ypp, 107th in rushing ypc, and 79th in QB rating.  Purdue’s defense is very under rated ranking 28th in ypp defense, 13th in QB rating defense, 50th in rushing defense.  I think the defense will keep them in this game, and I trust Purdue’s offense more than I trust Iowa’s.  Purdue has really held Iowa’s rushing in check over the past 4 years holding them to just 3.57 ypc, and this year they rank 14th in epa run defense while Iowa ranks 119th in epa run offense.  Iowa is going to have to try to pass it here, but Purdue 15th in epa pass defense.  I don’t see how or why Iowa should be a double digit favorite here.

The biggest issue here is turnovers as Purdue ranks 111th in TO’s they have to take care of the ball and if they do I think they have a shot at pulling the outright upset.  Purdue had the ball late in the 4th with a chance to tie at Notre Dame and if they didn’t lose David Bell they probably lose that game by single digits.

Arizona +7 -125 buy ½ 3.75% play

Arizona is desperate for a win and I love the coaching staff with Jedd Fisch at HC previously serving as Patriots QB coach, their OC Brennan Carrol is the son of Pete Carrol, and veteran DC Don Brown.  This defense has actually played better than their numbers indicate as they held BYU 36 yards under their season average as well as UCLA -22yards, and Oregon -24.5 yards.  Arizona was in the game against BYU who was ranked #10 last week, they were in the game against Oregon despite -5 to margin, and they gave UCLA issues last week although losing 34-16 it was a 17-16 game late in the third quarter.  Colorado has scored a total of 34 points in 4 games vs. P5 opponents, and haven’t pushed past a total of 260 yards. I don’t understand how they are nearly a TD favorite.  Arizona lost their QB for the season that they started last week, but Gunner Cruz the 6’5 QB stepping in had 336 passing yards against BYU.  These are two similar teams that have faced similar schedules, and Arizona -1.7 ypp compared to Colorado’s -2.9.

North Carolina -7.5

The Tar Heels are off a loss to Florida State as a 18 point favorite.  They lost to Florida State last year as well and bounced back by kicking the shit out of a ranked NC State team and they also beat Miami with Deriq King 62-26.  King is out for the year with a shoulder injury, and that’s huge for North Carolina, because their biggest defensive issue is giving up rushing yards to opposing QB’s.  ON the year 348 yards rushing and 7 rushing TD’s to opposing QB’s.  Van Dyke is not a threat on the ground, and while he played decent vs. Virginia their pass defense is very poor and he still only completed 51% of his passes.

For North Carolina really the only thing that’s beating their offense is a good pass rush.  They struggled against Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech both ranked top 35 in sack %.  Miami ranks 98th in sack %, and they have allowed 48% conversions on third down.  Miami is off the bye here, but I honestly am not afraid of Manny Diaz as a head coach.  This is a team that has gotten worse since he has taken over.  This isa team ranking 111th in TO margin, 111th in epa run offense, 90th in QB rating. I think they’re getting a pissed of North Carolina team.  Mack Brown has indicated that practice has been good this week, and I see them putting a double digit victory over Miami here in front of their home crowd.

Texas A&M -9

I think the Aggies carry the momentum into this week against a very bad Missouri team that is lacking a ton of effort on the defensive side of the ball. I think there is a ton of confidence in Calzada at QB now, and that momentum will carry here.  Missouri’s offense has been good, but they’re facing the best defense they have faced all year in A&M.  Typically you’d want to fade a team after upsetting eh #1 team, but Missouri 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games.  Something just is not right in Missouri. They gave up 4 huge passing TD’s in the second half against North Texas of all teams. 

Auburn +4.5 3.3% PLAY

These teams are pretty even statistically, and I don’t think you can give Arkansas 3 points for home field, and I like that Bo Nix has actually played better on the road and has played in far more challenging spots on the road this season.  He faced Penn State on the road in a white out, and they were in that game it was 21-20 in the 4th quarter before losing 28-20.  Auburn also came back at LSU in Death Valley at night, which is not something Auburn would have done in the past.  Auburn to me also looked better against Georgia than Arkansas did.  Georgia lost their defensive leader Smoke Monday in the second quarter because of targeting and he’ll be back here.  Auburn’s receivers also had several key drops in the game one that led to a Georgia interception.  The other thing to mention here is Auburn was a 13.5 point favorite at home against Arkansas last year, and now they’re a 4.5 point dog on the road that’s a 12 point move if we are saying home field is worth 3 points, which I don’t think Arkansas has a 3 point home field advantage here.  I think this game comes down to the wire here.

Clemson -13.5 2.2% play

I'm buying low here on the Tigers, and I think they had a little momentum going into their bye when they were able to get the running game going wiht 231 rushing yards against BC.  I think they can get the running game going here tonight while Clemson has been good from a ypc perspective they rank 86th in epa run defense.  The average epa run defense that Clemson has faced this year ranks 16.75, so this is a good match up for Clemson.  I really think we will see the running game work a bit, and for DJ to have his best game at QB against Syracuse pass defense that ranks 96th in QB rating.  Clemson still has the skill position talent at WR, and I think the bye will help them all get on the same page.

Defensively Clemson has been stout and although they spent a ton of time on the field, which was starting to hurt this team the bye came at the right time.  Syracuse is a completely one dimensional offense led by the Miss State transfer QB Schrader who over his last two games carried the ball 45 times for 315 yards.  I just don't see that working against Clemson and Syracuse ranks 109th in QB rating 106th in epa pass offense.  I think Clemson can really dominate defensively, and Syracuse will really struggle to put up any points.  I just don't know where the points are going to come from here.  Clemson also has an advantage in special teams ranking 26th vs. 100th ranking for Syracuse.  Clemson can really turn their season around, and I think it starts tonight by getting the team's confidence back, and the only way to do that is to go into the Carrier Dome where they have had issues in the past and pull the upset.  The last 6 meetings between these two the spread was on average 30.25 points.  

NAVY +11 3.3% PLAY

Playing the triple option on a short week is not an ideal time.  Last year Memphis got to face a historically bad Navy offense, and they did so by facing after an FCS foe.  They definitely had success, but narrowly escapted 10-7.  Memphis defense is just not very good especially against the run.  On paper thye rank 60th in ypc allowed, but they have faced an average rushing ypc team ranked 94.2.  Their EPA run defense ranks 93rd.  This actually may be the worst run defense that Navy has faced all year, and Memphis not very good on 3rd downs, which is the key to getting service academies off the field and winning by double digits.  Memphis has allowed 45.45% conversions, and that has come against offenses who are only averaging 38.53%.  Mike MaCyntyre is a long time coach and the DC for Memphis who you would think has a lot of experience facing option teams.  He was here last year when they faced it, but before that he did not face at Ole Miss, he did not face it at Colorado from 2013-18, and 2010-12 he did not face Air Force at San Jose State.  2009 when he was the DC at Duke they gave up 277 yards to Army.  His defenses have rarely been good against the run, and I just feel like Navy is starting to figure things out on offense.

Navy fired their OC and since then the offense has turned things around upsetting UCF 34-30, losing to SMU last week by only 7 - 31-24.  SMUs run defense is far better than Memphis.  On paper Navy's offense does not look great as they rank 84th in ypc, and 126th yards per play, but they have faced some tough defenses.  On aveage the opponent ypp defense ranks 40th.  So there is some reason to believe their numbers will improve down the stretch and facing a Memphis defense that is not very good particularly against hte run or pass could be a great opporntunity for Navy.  

Memphis offense has been great however, and that's why they are a double digit favorite, but this is not the same Memphis teams, and while they rank 20th in ypp it has come against an average opponent ypp rank of 82.2.  Navy 's defense ranks 55th in epa pass defense, 39th in epa run defense and 50th in success rate, and that has not come against poor offenses.  Their average opponent ypp offense is 40.4.  There is just too much value for me here add in the fact that beating a service academy by double digits is very hard to do unless you are going to absolutely shut out their running game, which I have already established I don't believe Memphis can.  Memphis additionally has struggled all year with turnovers ranking 124th in TO margin while Navy ranks 50th.  The one clear advantage Memphis has in this game is special teams, but it's not enough for them to win and cover by double digits in my opinion.

Nebraska +3 3% play 

You have #11 Michigan fresh off a whooping of Wisconsin last week on the road and they are only a 3 point road favorite against a 3-3 Nebraska team?  Nebraska could easily be 5-1 and have continued to get better throughout the season.  Michigan is in a very tough spot that they are not used to.  In fact this is only the 5th time under Jim Harbough where they have played back to back road games and they are just 1-3 before this game.  The game at Wisconsin was not as impressive as Wisconsin has not played with a pulse all year.  Their defense is solid, but the offense is so bad at some point the defense just crumbles.  Nebraska seems to be different, and has a good defense, and a more electric offense.

Nebraska will host this game at night and there will be much more energy on their side here hosting a top 10 type of team in Michigan.  Also, Nebraska’s run defense has been solid ranking 32nd in ypc allowed, and 23rd in epa run defense.  Michigan struggled a bit running the ball against a similar run defense in Rutgers and that game was at home.  They also struggled when Rutgers went to zone read offense allowing the QB to run as Noah Vedral ran for 42 yards in that game.  Adrian Martinez is far more dynamic and he’s also passing the ball really well this year.  I expect this game to go down to the wire, and I feel like Nebraska will have the edge in the ground game that will allow them to win the game.

LSU +2.5 3.3% play 

What does Ed Orgeron do best? Talk in a deep voice, GO TIGERS! Just kidding.. He motivates his players, and his players play for him.  They are following a loss at home last week in dramatic fashion to Auburn. Since Ed has been here as the head man in 2016, LSU is 11-1 straight up following a loss.  The only back to back losses came last year where to be honest they just lost too much talent to the NFL following their Championship, and the loss came to no other than Alabama, and it came after they lost to a top 5 Texas A&M team.

Motivation aside I think LSU matches up better than many are talking about here.  LSU has clear edges on special teams ranking 12th compared to Kentucky 105th, and Kentucky is 125th in TO margin.  LSU’s run defense has actually not been as bad as people think.  They got steam rolled by UCLA, and maybe it woke them up a bit, because they have had two games where they’ve been dominant. I do think Kentucky will run the ball well here, but at some point Kentucky and QB Will Levis will have to win with him throwing the ball, and what I saw last week against Florida was not pretty.  Kentucky upset Georgia, and they are riding high, but they did it by putting up 226 yards, and a ridiculous play by their WR.  Maybe Levis comes out and has a great game, and I’m proven wrong, but..

LSU offense is predicated on the pass.  They don’t even try to hide it they are not the old LSU team that could run the ball, and they have Max Johnson who has looked great this season.  He already went on the road against Miss State, and put up 28 points throwing for 280 yards 4 passing TD’s and 1 INT.  Miss State has a similar defense to Kentucky.  Miss State QB rating defense 54th vs. avg passing off of 37.75 compared to Kentucky’s 46th ranking against an average opponent passing offense 80th.  It was clear as day to me that’s where Florida had to attack Kentucky last week, but Dan Mullen refused to do it, which I get that’s really not the mold of the Florida team and he clearly didn’t trust his QB throwing the ball on the road.  Kentucky has faced just one passing offense all year – Missouri.  Missouri throws the ball 61% of the time LSU throws the ball 63%.  Missouri put up 28 points on Kentucky in their own building allowing 294 passing yards 4 passing TD’s and 1 INT.  Kentucky won the game 35-28, because Missouri is not a very good defense.  LSU whose defense has not played well still has the players and is significantly better than Missouri.

Lastly, this is an awful spot for Kentucky when we look at it.  They just upset Florida at home for the first time in 30+ years or something crazy, and they have Georgia on deck.  I trust the coaching staff, but it’s kind of hard to not see players looking toward Georgia when you get LSU who is “not as good” as they typically are coming in, but nobody has been better in this spot at motivating his team than Ed Orgeron.. GO TIGERS!

Missouri -19

This game just screams blowout to me with North Texas wanting to play fast with 89 plays per game ranking #1 in the nation, but they rank 125th in yards per play, -2.1 ypp differential.  You have an angry Missouri team, particularly their defense, which just gave up 62 to Tennessee.  Drinkewitz fired their DL coach, because he felt there was a lack of effort by the DL, and he said this week in press that there is no depth chart, and that whoever practices best is going to play.  I think we see a very high effort by this defense, and it’s going to come against an offense that really hasn’t been able to move the ball ranking 117th in success rate, 119th in epa pass offense, and that has come against weak competition.  Meanwhile Missouri for all of their defensive struggles at least it has come against quality offensive opponents ranking 46th in ypp.

Missouri’s offense on the other hand has not been the problem.  They like to run plays, and they like to pass the ball, and I expect them to have a field day against a North Texas defense that ranks 125th in qb rating defense, 115th in epa pass defense.  Missouri ranks 29th in success rate offense, and 31st in epa passing offense, and it’s just not a good match up for North Texas.  North Texas is also 108th in special teams and has average -9.1 yards in net field position.  Missouri is 29th in special teams so expect them to have short fields all day.

Ohio +175 2% ML Dog play 

I think this is worth the value here with Ohio on the Money Line.  Maybe they figured some things out in the 4th quarter against Akron where they went on a 17-0 run, and maybe finally coming home after three straight road games facing a team they lost by 3 to last year will give this team some momentum.  I think it’s also worth noting that QB Daniel Richardson is doubtful, because of a shoulder injury, and if he plays well we still have a decent bet, and if he doesn’t play I feel like we have a great bet.  Central Michigan has not been able to protect the QB ranking 112th in sack % allowed, and now they are going on the road with a potential back up QB in Jacob Simon who has thrown 4 interceptions in 119 attempts this year against Ohio’s pass rush which ranks 27th in sack%.  Central Michigan’s offensive strength is to pass the ball, but that falls into the hands of Ohio’s defensive strength right now.  They rank 32nd in epa pass defense.  CMU only converting 38% of their third downs against an average opponent third down defense ranking 48.21%.

Ohio’s offense found something and it may have been against Akron, but they have been able to run the ball well all year ranking 5th in ypc, and 4th in epa run offense.  Here they get back home and on paper it looks like a tough task against the 56th run defense from ypc perspective, but Central Michigan has gotten that ranking from facing an average opponent rushing offense ranking 103.75 in ypc.  Ohio’s offensive line is massive on the left side, coming in at 375, and 330lbs, while Central Michigan’s defensive line are either freshman or sophomores up the middle, and the edge guys are 260 and 245lbs.  I think Ohio can really wear out Central Mich with their running game.  Armani Rogers who feels like he’s been a college athlete for the past decade is getting mixed in at QB as an extra threat in the run game the last 3 games has helped Ohio and will challenge Central Michigan.  Central Michigan’s pass defense is horrible so I expect Ohio to have some success in that department as well as they rank 100th in EPA pass defense.

Ohio has been blown out in a few games this season, and that is true.  However the games they were blown out in they could not stop the run.  Syracuse ranks 29th in ypc and that has come against an average 58th ranked run defense.  Lafayette ranks 27th, and that has come against a 73rd ranked defense.  Finally, Northwestern ranks 43rd, and that has come against a 30th ranked defense.  Central Michigan can’t run the ball they rank 90th and that has come against a 103rd ranked defense.

Auburn +15 1.1% Free Play

We are getting value here with Auburn in my opinion due to that Georgia State near loss, but that was a rough spot for them following the Penn State game with LSU on deck it was a major sandwich game.  Here you could argue Georgia who is playing in their first road game (Vanderbilt does not count) at night in front of Auburn where they have not been blown out in a some times should be able to hang around.

Georgia is in a sell high situation here and they really haven’t played anyone thus far.  The Clemson win which was only won on a pick six looks worse and worse, and until they played a banged up Arkansas team last week they played 4 teams outside the top 90 in offense.  Auburn ranks 28th in ypp, and they rank 3rd in rushing ypc, and have Tank Bigsby one of the nations best RB’s.  It’s going to be tough to run against Georgia, but Auburn is at home where Bo Nix has been great over his career.

Georgia’s offense will likely be without JT Daniels at QB, and Stetson Bennett is serviceable back up, but I don’t like him on the road.  I could see him making mistakes on the road in a hostile environment against a strong defensive line that’s getting to the qb ranking 28th in sack @.  We should see Kirby Smart do what he typically does, which is go into ultra conservative mode.  They already run the ball 61% of the time, and Auburn is 16th in run defense.  Auburn also has the advantage in the special teams thus far this season.  This is just far too many points in my opinion.

Ohio State -21

I think Ohio State is about to get rolling here after their blowout win against Rutgers who had been playing well.  Maryland, I fear is heading in opposite direction after last week’s huge loss on Friday night which was one of their bigger games in recent memory.  In that game they had 7 TO’s, and they lost their best player in Demus for the season.  How does Baby Tua respond after throwing 5 INT’s, and now going on the road where he feels the pressure of having to do it all without his top target Demus?  Ohio State’s defense has improved and they have 7 interceptions over the last 3 games and are the #1 secondary in the P5 with 32 pass breakups. I don’t see it ending well for Baby Tua here.

Ohio State’s offense is by far the best offense that Maryland has faced.  Kent State was the best offense prior, and Maryland allowed them to get into the red zone 7 times, but held them to 1TD.  Ohio State has a top 5 rushing offense and passing offense from an EPA perspective, and they have NFL talent at WR.  Ohio State also has motivation to get margin here, as they need to compete with what Iowa did and they also have to keep the momentum from last week.  The last time these two teams met, Ohio State put up 73 points, and there is a huge coaching advantage here for Ohio State.  HC Ryan Day has been raving on how practice has been going the past two weeks, and it seemed to make a difference against Rutgers.

Rutgers +5.5

Buy low and sell high situation here after Rutgers got beat badly by Ohio State who has a serious talent gap, and Rutgers turned the ball over, which they haven’t done all season.  Rutgers is much improved under Greg Schiano as HC here.  Michigan State meanwhile just keeps winning, and is 5-0, but a very over rated 5-0 in my opinion.  Rutgers is at home here, and in my opinion has the better defense, when you look at the fact that they rank 34th in ypc allowed facing 29th average rushing offense.  Michigan STaet who ranks 21st stopping the run has gotten there against an average rushing offense ranking 68.5.  Michigan State has won games and gotten by winning the TO margin, special teams, and net yard field position, but Rutgers is even or better in all those categories here.

So where is the advantage that is making Michigan State a 6 point road favorite?  On paper it says their offense is much better ranking 20th in YPP compared to Rutgers which ranks 120th.  That makes a ton of sense, but there is a serious gap in strength of schedule here with Michigan State facing an average ypp defense ranking 79.25, compared to Rutgers who has had to face an average 30.25.  Rutgers also faced a similar team in Michigan on the road, and it was a 20-13 game.  Michigan obviously a better team than Michigan State and would be favored on a neutral.  I think Michigan State is going to have major issues moving the ball in this game, and Rutgers who ranks 21st in sack % will give this offensive line some issues.  Michigan State is 76th in sack % allowed and that is coming against a weak group of defensive lines averaging 82nd in sack %.  Michigan State also converting only 36.96% of their third downs against average defenses ranking 48% in third downs allowed so their offensive numbers should actually be better.  Here they go up against a solid Rutgers defense allowing only 31% conversions.

Rutgers offense has struggled, but they do have a QB that is a physical runner in Vedrel, and we saw Michigan State struggle a bit against a running QB when they faced Adrian Martinez, and that game was at home.

Oklahoma -3 3.3% play

We have automatic line value here in my opinion as Texas continues to be overrated.  We also have a 1-4 ATS Oklahoma team we are buying low on against a Texas team that’s 4-1 ATS.  The biggest key in the game is stopping Texas Bijan Robinson as Texas runs the ball 65% of the time.  Oklahoma ranks 17th in rushing ypc allowed, 6th in epa run defense, and Texas has faced just one team ranked in the top 80 in epa run defense, Arkansas.  Arkansas dominated Texas and held them to 138 yards on 41 carries.  Arkansas 30th ranked run defense came against an average opponent offense ranking 61st, while Oklahoma’s average opponent ranking is 66.  Oklahoma’s run defense has faced two rushing offenses similar to the success that Texas has had.  Nebraska ranks 30th in rushing ypc, and 8th in epa, and Oklahoma kept them under 100 yards.  Kansas State also ranks 35th in ypc rushing, and Oklahoma held them to 100 yards.  Bijan Robinson also ran the ball 35 times in the last game.  He never had a game with more than 20 carries before.  Oklahoma should have plenty of success in my opinion stopping the run.  What about the pass?

Casey Thompson at QB for Texas so far has been a good things, but when we look at it he has faced defenses ranking 113th, 82nd, and 120th in ypp.  TCU gave him some issues, and he’s thrown 1 INT in all of his last three games.  Riley recruited Thompson and knows him extremely well.  I expect Thompson to have a big TO in this game.  There is a reason why he has never been able to crack into the starting QB job, and we may see that here as I think Oklahoma can also pressure him and they have the talent to spy on him as a runner.

Oklahoma offensively has struggled this year, but it’s mainly due to not being able to run the ball, and Rattler struggling throwing the ball deep down the field, but he’s actually been the #1 rated QB on throws less than 10 yards, and they are 12th in the nation with 61 passing plays of 10+ yards.  Texas defense has shown a lot of weaknesses against the run and pass.  They rank 98th in run defense and 95th in opposing QB rating defense, and 93rd in explosive plays allowed.  I think this could be a game where Oklahoma rushing offense gets going as they have only faced one rushing defense outside the top 30, and Texas ranks 93rd in explosive rushing plays allowed.  In case you are wondering Oklahoma ranks 14th in explosive rushing plays allowed, which should again limit Texas offense here.

Arkansas +5.5 3.3% play

Ole Miss and Arkansas had two similar games against the top two teams in the SEC last week, with similar resulting in blowout losses on the road.  I think we are getting value with Arkansas when you look at the fact that they have put up better numbers against a tougher schedule.  Arkansas has a +2.3 ypp on the season against opponents who are +0.42 ypp.  Ole Miss is +1.5 vs. avg opponent with a 0ypp on average.  Arkansas has played A&M, Texas, and Georgia compared to Ole Miss has played Louisville, Tulane, and Alabama.  Both of these teams want to run first, Ole Miss 58% run, Arkansas 67% run, and both defenses drop 8 in coverage and dare you to run.

Arkansas Defense is much more balanced as they rank top 30 in EPA run defense, EPA pass defense, and Success rate defense.  Their defense statistically is better than Alabama, and Ole Miss had major issues with them last year where they only scored 21 points and Matt Corral threw 6 interceptions.  All I have heard all week is that Matt Corral the Heisman Trophy favorite is going to get his revenge, but I’m not so sure about that.  If you don’t think DC Barry Odom will have some wrinkles in this game you’re surely mistaken, and Arkansas also only allowing 29.17% third down conversions.  Ole Miss last year faced 5 teams in the top 50 in EPA pass defense and averaged an entire TD less per game, and Arkansas fits the bill here.

Ole Miss defense has had issues against good running teams.  They rank 90th in epa run defense, and they struggle against running QB’s.  Also noteworthy is KJ Jefferson looked fine last week, and Ole Miss did not face Jefferson last year as it was still Felepe Franks team.  Ole Miss gave up 79 yards rushing to Louisville’s Malik Cunningham, 37 yards on 11 carreis to Tulane’s QB, and last year Bo Nix rushed for 52 yards on 10 carries, and Kentucky’s Terry Wilson rushed for 129.  I expect a big day and a bounce back performance by the offensive line on the road. I think they will clean up the penalties and it won’t nearly be as loud at 11am in Ole Miss.

South Carolina +10.5 MAX NCAAF POD

Get on the Tennessee hype train after they beat Missouri 62-24 last week, right?  80%+ of the tickets and the money is on Tennessee, but I think this line is inflated here.  South Carolina has been good to me this year, and I played them twice as a favorite going 2-0 ATS, and Shane Beamer has his team playing extremely hard right now and 8 out of the last 10 meetings between these two have been decided by single digits and there is no doubt that South Carolina has faced a far tougher schedule, which is giving us a bit more value on the spread.

Despite Tennessee wanting to run the ball more, they will face a very good South  Carolina defense ranking 18th in QB rating, and 4th in epa pass defense.  Their run defense on paper doesn’t look great, but their epa run defense ranks 43rd, which compare that with Missouri ranking 124th.  South Carolina does not give up big plays as they rank 3rd in the nation in 20+ yard plays so it’s going to take Tennessee a lot of plays to score TD’s, and I trust South Carolina to make some stops here.

South Carolina’s offense has been a struggle, and mainly because they haven’t gotten the running game going.  It’s understandable when you face three top 10 run defenses. Here they face Tennessee which ranks 33rd, but a closer look and you see that Tennessee really has not faced a good running offense outside of Florida who ran all over Tennessee.  Bowling Green ranks 130th, Missouri, and Pitt prefer to pass and are not running teams.  Missouri and Pitt also don’t slow the game down like South Carolina wants to do here, which is also going to make it very difficult for Tennessee to cover double digits in this game.  South Carolina is 125th in pace on offense.  South Carolina has also struggled in the red zone, but here they face a Tennessee defense that has allowed 71% red zone trips to end in a TD.  Last week was nice for Tennessee, but I think this team is really reading the press clippings.  Missouri’s head coach fired their DL line coach this week and called out his team for lack of effort.  The Tennessee offense going crazy had more to do with Missouri’s missed assignments, and just giving up, while I feel that won’t happen with South Carolina.  South Carolina had a hard-fought win last week and should have a chip on their shoulder and play with max effort.  I expect this to be a 4-quarter battle.

I also don’t think we should sleep on Luke Doty at QB, who is still not 100%, but starting to click with WR Josh Vann who leads the SEC in yards per catch at 21.

Shane Beamer and his staff are very familiar with the travel to Knoxville, Tennessee as he was a GA here, and while it’s not a huge note, it does make a difference.

Temple +30 2.2% play

Cinci is off their biggest win in program history, and are now looking for style points, but this spread is inflated in my opinion.  Cinci, had a bye week before Notre Dame, and teams put a lot of effort into beating Notre Dame.  Florida State, Toledo, Prurdue, and Wisconsin are 0-4 ATS after the Notre Dame game, and their margin of loss ATS was 31, 31, 6, and 23 as 3 of them were favorites in their next game, and lost outright. 

Just because Cinci needs to win with style points does not mean they will.  The other team still plays football, and a lot of times a team can make mistakes by trying to run it up on a team. I still don't entirely trust Desmond Ridder and he's going against a pretty good pass defense, that does not give up explosive plays, top 50, but top 25 in passing explosive plays allowed.  I honestly did not come away as impressed with Cinci's win, and we all know Notre Dame is not as good as years past so we are giving Cinci far too much credit here.  This was a team that Indiana had on the ropes, and Notre Dame nearly lost to a 1-4 Florida State team, 2-2 Toledo team, and the Wisconsin team that's 1-3 was a very misleading final.

Temple has a solid defense ranking 34th in ypp allowed, and the last time I checked I still don't believe Cinci to be an elite offense, which is what you need to blow a team out like this.  Cinci's offense has gone up against an average opponent ypp ranked 94th, and they are only converting 29% of their conversions on third downs. They are not an explosive offense outside the top 100 so they are winning games wiht special teams, defense, and field position.  Temple has proven to protect the ball, and I think D'Wan Mathis taking over at QB is a good thing.  He found 11 receivers against Memphis last week, and has shown an ability to run.  Now facing Cinci's defense will be a different story, but if there was ever a time to catch this defense, it would be the week after Notre Dame. 

Oklahoma St -3.5 3.3% play

Baylor is off a huge upset of Iowa State, but it was very misleading as they were outgained by 200 yards, and had a kickoff return TD.  Iowa State also got just 9pts in their 5 trips inside the Baylor 30.  Baylor has a very under rated home field advantage.  This week they play a true road game at night for the first time in 2 years.  Yes they played road games at Texas State and Kansas, but this is a night game at Oklahoma St where there will be 50K+ fans, and Baylor’s offense is going up against a very good defense that is likely to cause some turnovers that turns this game into an easy win for the Cowboys.

Baylor’s offense ranks 14th in ypc, but they have faced an average ypc defense ranking 74th, here they face Oklahoma State which ranks 12th in ypc defense.  I also don’t trust Gerry Bohanon on the road in this spot to win the game.  When you look at this game Baylor is going to have trouble converting third downs against Oklahoma State that has dominated 3rd down defense allowing 26% conversions, which has carried over to their red zone defens allowing just 36%.

Oklahoma State’s offense didn’t score in the second half last week after getting out to a 31-10 lead, but they didn’t need to.  I think Spencer Sanders is starting to find his rhythm, and Jaylen Warren is a very under rated RB with power and speed.  We saw him absolutely dominate in the Boise game and now he faces a Baylor defense, that ranks 77th in run defense.  Iowa State ran for 200+, and I expect Oklahoma State with a mobile QB to put up similar stats.

Third downs is where I feel this game will be decided, and Oklahoma State has converted 45.1% of their third downs, which shocked me and they have down it against an average opponent defense ranking 33.3.  Baylor comes in 42.8%, but they’re on the road, and the average defenses they have faced have not been good on third down allowing 41.72 on average.  Oklahoma State’s defense has been great allowing only 26% conversions, but it has come against some bad offenses on average 37.2% conversions.  However, Baylor’s third down defense which has allowed 39% conversions has faced an even worse average 3rd down defense with 31.76%.

Finally coaching staff advantage to Oklahoma State over Dave Arranda.  Baylor is off to a very faulty 4-0 start and the Bears are just 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma State, and the favorite is 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings.

Under 46.5 2.2% 

Kentucky +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

This will be a sell out crowd Saturday night at Kroger Field against a top 10 Florida team.  Mark Stoops has gone head to head with Mullen 7 times and is 4-2-1 ATS with an average margin of cover of 10.37pts.  This Kentucky brand has really been built up the last few years, and I think this may be their most balanced team yet.

From a statistical perspective Kentucky is really good at defending the run, which is what Florida is really going to be focused on here.  Florida ranks #1 in the nation in running the ball, and they do it with a physical ground attack led by QB Emory Jones, but I still think it’s very one dimensional, and the average opponent run defense they have faced ranks 91st in ypc defense.  If Kentucky’s excellent group of LB’s can contain Emory or set up some third downs I think they can force some turnovers as this is Emory’s first real road game.  They played at South Florida, but that was in their home state and there were more Florida fans there.

Kentucky offensively ranks 13th in ypc, and 26th in QB rating so they are a balanced offense.  Will Levis has had issues turning the ball over the last two games, but overall he’s added another dimension to the Kentucky offense, and he has the best WR in this game in Won’Dale Robinson.  Florida ranks 42nd in ypp defense, but on average they have faced 62nd ranked ypp offense.  This is a much bigger game for Kentucky than it is for Florida who has dominated the series, and has not lost here since 1986.  However, Kentucky won at Florida just 2 years ago, and Florida’s last 3 visits to Kentucky have been wins of 8, 1, and 5 points. 

Texas Tech +7 3.3% play

West Virginia just had two A efforts against VA Tech at home, and then road game at Oklahoma where they came up short losing 13-16.  This team has had issues closing out games, and the perception is this team is really good, but I actually felt lucky to win that game against Virginia 2 weeks ago.  Texas Tech meanwhile is off a 70-35 beat down by Texas who just looks like a different team since the QB switch.  Tech gave up a pick sick, a punt return that was nearly a TD, and just lacked effort all day long.  I think Matt Wells is a good enough coach that he can rally the team this week.  He is 2-0 vs. Neal Brown and clearly faces an offense that has really struggled thus far this season West Virginia ranks outside the top 75 in ypp, rushing ypc, QB rating, epa offense, success rate, epa run/ epa/pass.  Texas Tech’s defense really played well up until last week, holding all previous three opponents under 100 yards rushing.  It’s a veteran defense, and I would be shocked if they didn’t come out with a ton more effort this week.

Texas Tech offensively lost their starting QB last game, and that probably has inflated this line a bit as well, but Henri Colombi has a ton of playing experience, and was 17-23 3 TD’s and 1 INT vs. Texas last week.  He was 22-28 last year vs. West Virginia 1 TD/ 0INT.  If there is one weakness for West Virginia’s defense it’s the pass defense as they rank 71st in epa pass defense.  I think that leaves the back door open if we need it, but I expect Texas Tech right in this game.  They also have a TO margin ranking 26th, compared to West Virginia’s 126th. 

Nevada +6.5 2.2% play

Boise has been very misleading this year, but this number is not reflecting the fact that Boise has been outgained in 3 of their 4 games.  Nevada is off a bye, after they gave up 21 unanswered points on the road at Kansas State to lose in misleading fashion.  Honestly both of these teams are fairly similar statistically and have done it against similar strength of schedules.  Neither team has been able to run the ball ranking 127th and 118th, although Nevada has faced tougher opponent run defense.  Both teams also have very good QB’s and NFL target as their #1 in Boise Shakir, and Nevada’s Doubs. 

Nevada in my opinion has the better QB in Carson Strong.  Nevada’s pass defense is a bit better according to EPA/pass as they rank 47th and that has come against an avg opponent epa/pass offense ranking 52nd.  Compare that with Boise who ranks 99th vs. average 45th.  I also like that Nevada has already played at Cal, and won, and played at Kansas State so a third road game should not phase them and Boise has BYU on deck. I just feel like this game should be -3 Boise, but we are getting Nevada at +6.

Kent State -16.5 1.1% Free Play

When have you seen the public back a more than 2 TD dog in the MAC to the tune of 66%?  Bowling Green upset Minnesota on the road, and Kent State on paper got clobbered by Maryland.  Bowling Green in a major hang over here going up against a very good Kent State offense that likes to play fast.  I think Kent State who arguably had the toughest schedule of any G5 team facing Texas A&M, Iowa, and Maryland already, and there is no way for Bowling Green to keep up in this one.

South Carolina -6.5 2.2% play

 In my opinion this is not a good match up for Troy yet the line has dropped 2.5 points with a low total going under the TD here, which I’ll absolutely take.  The story is Troy just lost as a 24 point favorite and that’s why they are getting some action here this week as on paper South Carolina’s offense ranks 104th, and Troy’s defense ranks 6th from a YPP perspective, but the strength of schedules could not be any different.  Troy’s opponents average YPP differential are -1.76 yards per play, while South Carolina’s opponents are +1.8. 

Troy’s strength is against pass heavy teams, and they have the #1 sack %, but they are playing South Carolina a physical team, that’s going to lean on the run, and their defense.  Zaquandre White is averaging over 6 ypc, and while Troy ranks 10th in ypc defens,e they have faced an average ypc offense ranking 107th.  They gave up 129 yards rushing at LA Monroe last week who rank 129th.  This is Troy’s third road game in 3 weeks, and having to face an SEC opponent that is not overlooking them, because they are desperate for a win to keep their bowl hopes alive is not a good spot.  Troy was 31-8 before they hired Chip Lindsey, they are 12-15 since.  They lost 10-42 at Missouri in 2019, and in their two games against physical opponents last year they lost 48-7, and 47-10.

I think South Carolina’s defense is being overlooked here.  They have an SEC leading 10 forced turnovers.  I really like this coaching staff, and I expect they should be able to dominate a Troy offense that ranks 107th in YPP.  They prefer to pass the ball, but South Carolina ranks 30th in EPA/pass defense and that has come against an average epa/passing offense ranking 34.5. 

TCU +4.5 2.2% / TCU +165 1%

TCU played their worst game of the season, while Texas played their best.  Now the hype for Texas is back after their last 2 games beating Rice 58-0, and Texas Tech 70-35.  They have their biggest game of the season next week in the Red River Rivalry.  The last 14 seasons Texas has gone 2-10-1 ATS the week before their rivalry game against Oklahoma, and have missed covering the spread by 16.7pts on average in those 10 losses.  TCU has really dominated this series covering 6 of the last 7 by an average of 19.75points.  I think it’s the reason the books are reluctant to move this game off 4 despite 90% tickets, and 72% of the money on Texas.

TCU’s defense has been pretty bad this year, but Texas has not been much better.  They both rank outside the top 100 in rushing defense, and their pass defense is also outside the top 100 in epa/pass allowed.  TCU has the better QB in my opinion in Max Duggan who is a dual threat QB, and their offense has been great to start the season.  TCU will be home for this game, and both teams want to run the ball, and TCU is the better running team actually as they rank 8th in epa/run and that comes against a far tougher schedule of defense ranking 28.5, compared to Texas who ranks 49th, against an average run defense ranking 74.  I know Texas switched their QB to Thompson, but it’s hard to forget their performance in their last road game against Arkansas where they were completely dominated.

Under 49.5 3.3% play 

Iowa -154 4% play

Let’s just start off by saying there are huge advantages for Iowa in the intangibles of coaching and special teams.  Two key components that a lot of people just overlook.  Mayrland has looked a lot better than they really are, because they have been good in TO margin and have enjoyed a +9.3 net yardage in field position.  Iowa is better ranking 17th in TO margin and +10.8 net yards in field position.  This is a massive game for Maryland, but that does not mean they will come through against Iowa, a team that has been here before.  Can Maryland handle the pressure?  I don’t know if they can. I saw a lot of drops by the WR last week against Kent State. 

Maryland’s offense has definitely been impressive with Baby Tua leading the way and a legit NFL WR in Demus.  However, this unit really has not faced a defense remotely close to Iowa.  Iowa has a senior laden secondary and is balanced.  They are top 10 in stopping the run, they are top 15 in defending the pass, and they can also get to the QB ranking 30th in sack %.  You could say Iowa has not faced any offenses, as their average opponent ypp ranks 87th, but of those offenses they have faced all of them have faced very tough defenses.  Just look at Kent State who faced A&M, Iowa, and Maryland.  Kent State actually averaged 1.58 yards per play more vs. Maryland than they did against Iowa, and honestly watching that game the refs took a lot of points off the board for questionable calls.  I honestly question if Maryland can get to 100 yards rushing in this game, and Baby Tua absolutely needs some balance to put up points.  In their last 5 games without 100 yards rushing they have averaged only 7.6ppg.  This offense relies far too much on the explosive plays and Iowa is top 10 at limiting those. 

Iowa’s offense has struggled big time this year, but when you really look at it they have faced very good defenses.  Colorado State ranks 2nd against the run, Iowa State ranks 6th.  Indiana is far better than their defensive rankings say as they have faced on average top 40 run offenses and pass offenses.  Maryland ranks 25th in stopping the run, but that has come against an average rushing ypc offense of 83rd, and their 31st ranked QB rating defense is fraudulent as they have faced an average QB rating of 96 by opposing offenses, and their EPA/pass defense paints a different picture where they rank 78th.  Kent State was able to move the ball at will on Maryland, but couldn’t turn their trips inside Maryland territory into 7pts.  I think Spencer Petras if very under rated at QB, and I think Kirk Ferentz likes to muddy up some of the stats to make his team look worse. 

Virginia +185 3% play

I believe Manny Diaz is a bit over his head at Miami, and maybe he proves me wrong, but it shoudl be worse than it has, bu the's bene lucky to have D'eriq King bailing out the defense, but this season Diaz took over the play calling duties for the defense, and it has resulted in their defense ranking 83rd in ypp, 109th in qb rating defense, 78th in success rate defense, and they are not in top 50 in any statistical category.  They have faced a tough group of opponent offenses, but that doesn't get easy here against Virginia who ranks 22nd in ypp, and their QB Brennan Armstrong is the best QB that Miami has faced this season.

I love that you have an angry Virginia team coming to town, a place they are traveling to for the 3rd straight year, so there is familiarity. I also like this team already played on the road at UNC, a game they led 28-24 at the half.  Virginia players admitted they were a bit hung over for the Wake Forest game after the UNC loss and now they sit at 0-2 in the ACC desparate for a win, with a good head coach who has an extra day to prepare.  I think Virginia will move the ball on this Miami defense that has been less than great.

Virginia's defense is a major issue and the main reason they are dogs here tonight, but worth mentioning is the fact that D'eriq King is doubtful for this game.  If he does some how play they have prepared for him.  If the inexperiened QB's play they'll face a 3-3-5 defense that typically gives QB's issues the first time they see them.  Also, Virginia's defense the past two weeks faced NFL caliber QB's in Hartman and Howell.  That's not the case this week, and I expect they'll be able to get off the field on third downs.  The last two games they really had issues wiht penalties, and they lost the field position battle to WAke by 12.3 yards.  I think these are correctable things, and I think there is some serious value with Virginia to pull the upset here tonight. 

New Mexico -1 5.5% NCAAF POD

I think the wrong team is favored here and New Mexico may go off as a favorite.  They are 0-3 ATS, and that automatically gives us value, but they are a team that just got shutout by Texas A&M and now face a UTEP team off a bye.  Both teams played New Mexico State, and while on paper it looks like UTEP is the better team, New Mexico played a more complete game. 

New Mexico will have the best player on the field in Terry Wilson at QB, the transfer from Kentucky, and he should be much more comfortable than he was a week ago at A&M.  Wilson has been solid this year 5td / 1 int, and goes up against a pass defense that has just 8 INT’s in the last 3 seasons.  In fact UTEP has been negative TO margin 6 straight seasons and are already -5 this year, while New Mexico is +4. 

UTEP also has a run heavy rushing offense, while New Mexico is only allowing 85 yards rushing per game, and really played well against A&M’s offense holding them in the red zone to FG’s in 2 of their 4 trips.  I think Terry Wilson gets comfortable and dominates this game.

FAU/AirForce O54 2.2% 

Nebraska +5 3.3% PLAY

Michigan State just 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, and they host Nebraska at night who is desparate for a big time win.  Nebraska has played extremely well since losing to Illinois to start the season and was in that game against Oklahoma last week on the road.  I like that Nebraska got to play on the road in a hostile environment and use that to their advantage for this upcoming week. 

Michigan State’s weakness has been Nebraska’s strength.  Nebraska ranks 21st in EPA/pass, and 52% in passing success rate, and they are only getting healthier at WR.  Martinez has done a 180 since that Illinois game, and it seems like he’s playing with a different level of confidence.  This Michigan State secondary ranks 83rd in EPA/pass defense and gave up 6 explosive passing play to Northwestern of all offenses.  Nebraska has the added dimension of Martinez being a threat to run, and that should open up for some explosive plays in this game for this Nebraska offense.

Just 28% of the tickets on Nebraska here, but I think they are a live dog and can pull an upset

UCLA/Stanford O58.5 1.1% PLAY

Stanford is without 3 RB’s, and I think they’ll be forced to look to pass at least on first down, and I think that’s the way attack UCLA, who has been stout against the run this year ranking 8th in EPA/run defense,  Stanford seemed to have found something with Tanner McKee at QB as he has passed for 570 yards 5TD and 0INT’s.  On the flip side Stanford’s defense has given up 200+ yard rushing to everyone this season and rank 114th in EPA/run defense.  UCLA will be able to run the ball especially if Vanderbilt of all teams just ran for more than 200 yards on Stanford.  So favorable match up for UCLA’s offense.  David Shaw has faced Chip Kelly 5 times as a head coach, and the average score of those games was 72.4 ppg with only one game with less than 60 points.  He’s also 3-2.  I expect a high scoring game here

UTSA +135 3% PLAY

I gave out Memphis +140 last week, and while it turned out a winner, I am not naïve to think that was not complete luck.  Memphis got outgained by 222 yards, and relied on a 49 yard fumble return, and a 94 yard punt return TD that was very controversial and they still nearly lost this game.  UTSA on the other hand sits at 3-0, and they just beat MTSU 27-13, but that game was not even close as UTSA had a 253 yard edge including 175-8 on the ground.  123 of MTSU’s yards came in garbage time as they scored 2 TD’s in the final 2 minutes of the game.

UTSA ranks 14th in EPA/play margin, and have impressive win at Illinois under their belt so going to play at Memphis should not phase this team that is really balanced all over the field ranking top 50 in a lot of offensive and defensive metrics.  I think Frank Harris at QB can have a big day with his feet and arm as Memphis defense looks lost sometimes.  This is a team that gave up 50 points to Arkansas State the week before, and looked a bit better against Miss State due to the familiarity of the coaching staff and that offense.  Memphis defense has not been tested on the ground and I think they will be here.  Meanwhile UTSA has been stout against the run, and are allowing just 48.8% completion percentage.

Kent State +14.5 3.3% play

I almost go to the window with Kent State last week, but wanted a +24, that never came.  They lost at Iowa 30-7, but it was 16-7 at the half, and Kent State had a 1st and goal in the 3rd quarter to cust the game to 16-14 and they fumbled.  They were also down 10-3 in week 1 at Texas A&M, so playing on the road against Maryland is not going to phase this team.  Iowa and Texas A&M have top 10 coaches, and while Maryland is 3-0, I just don’t think they are as well coached to pull away from a solid MAC team, when they have Iowa coming to town next.

Maryland’s defense is also not nearly as good as A&M or Iowa, and they certainly don’t have the home field advantage that those two teams have so I expect Kent State to get the offense going here a bit.  Maryland ranks 37th in YPP allowed, but the offenses they have faced are Illinois ranking 92nd, West Virginia ranking 61st, and Howard.  Kent State defensively have some ball hawking corners, and are +7 in TO margin so far this season.  I could see Kent State sticking around, and Maryland looking ahead to a massive game against Iowa thinking they’ll be 4-0.

Wash St / Utah Under 54.5 2.2% play

utah’s defense holds sd st to 248 yards but give up 33pts

utah’s offense has struggled, and their defense has been dominant, but the last two games they hav eplaye dthey have given up 26 and 33 points.  now they lose their qb charlie brewer who simply leaves the team and quits.  nobody likes a quitter.  utah had 14 drives, and just a 28.6% drive success rate.  They wer enegative in epa/pass and epa/rush.  tHIS WEEK THEY FACE WASHINGTON ST WHO JUST GOT CLOBERED BY USC 45-14, AND ON THE SURFACE IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A HIGH SCORING GAME, BUT I JUST DON’T SEE IT THAT WAY. I THINK WHITTINGHAM SIMPLIFIES THE OFFENSE WITH BREWER GONE AND RELIES ON HIS DEFENSE.  WASH ST AGAINST USC WAS NOT VERY SUCCESSFUL, AND THEIR DEFENSE SPECIFICALLY THEIR RUN DEFENSE HAS BEEN THE STRENGHT OF THE UNIT. I THINK THIS GOES UNDER THE TOTAL 54.5.

Wisconsin -6.5 3.3% play

We have the #12 team against the #18 team, and the #18 team is 6.5 point favorite on a neutral field (Soldier Field).  We have just 30% of the tickets on Wisconsin but the money is about even, and the line which opened up at 5.5 is out to 6.5.

Notre Dame has not played well this season despite their 3-0 record. I have major questions on the offensive line, as they have already given up 14 sacks, and while Wisconsin doesn’t sack the QB they have 28 total pressures in 2 games.  Of course the story here is Jack Coan, at QB for Notre Dame who came from Wisconsin, and I think the advantage lies on the side of Wisconsin’s defense and Jim Leonard the DC who has had plenty of time to go back and look at Jack Coan’s tape, during their bye week.  Coan is not helped at all by the running game that is averaging just 2.9ypc.

At the end of the day I’m backing the team that is better running the ball, and defending the run.  Wisconsin ranks 44th in EPA/run, and 2nd in EPA/run defense while Notre Dame is 121st in EPA/run offense, and 78th in EPA/run defense.  Wisconsin has clearly played a tougher opponent in Penn State, and that loss looks better given how Penn St has looked so far, and Wisconsin really should have won that game, but had 4 opportunities in side Penn State’s 25 yard line and had 0 points.  They’ll have to change that this week, and if they can avoid costly turnovers I believe they win this game by double digits.   

Missouri -115 2.5 %play 

Syracuse +7 3.3% play   

Syracuse was a 19.5 point favorite on the road against Liberty to open the 2019 season, and won 24-0, and are now a 6.5 point home dog.  That’s a 30+ point adjustment in under 2 years.  I just think its far too much I don’t care how Syracuse has played and how great Liberty has played.  Last year Liberty came here and did not have any crowd to deal with and although they won 38-21, they relied on 3 explosive TD’s to get there.  Syracuse through 3 games is 3rd in the nation having only allowed 18 plays of 10+ yards.  They also held Liberty to 3-12 on third down, but Liberty was able to convert both 4th down plays, but were just 2-4 in the red zone.  Syracuse defense looks much improved this year they are only allowing 1.8 ypc, and they’ll have 30,000+ fans backing them up in this spot against a team that is on the fringe of being ranked again.

Liberty has shown some issues in protecting do it all QB Malik Willis allowing 3 sacks per game, and that just does not translate well on the road in a very noisy environment on a short week.   Liberty is actually worse than Syracuse at protecting the QB, and the home field advantage should certainly make a big difference.  Remember there were 0 fans here in last year’s game.  Malik Willis has been great, but his home/away splits are not great.  He has 20 passing TD’s 1 INT at home, and on the road he has 8 TDs to 5 INT’s, and he has not started on the road in front of a crowd more than 4,000 people.  There will be over 30,000 at the Carrier Dome Friday night where Syracuse has upset Clemson in recent years.

Both teams want to run the ball and both teams have done a great job at running and stopping the run, against a weak strength of schedule.  I think Taj Harris coming back for Syracuse at WR could be the difference tonight as Syracuse gets the upset.

App State -7 2.2% play

Boht of these teams have a common opponent in East Carolina and both teams handled them similarly and struggle din the 4th quarter.  Marshall completely fell apart and lost by 4 blowing a 17 point lead, while App State won by 14.  Marshall had 3 key turnovers in the game, and I just don't trust this team on a short week to go into App State, a very difficult place to play and play their best game.  This is a team that 9 turnovers in 3 games, and ranking 95th in rushign success rate on defense. That's just not a great recipe for going on the road and getting a victory against an App State team that loves to run the ball.  Marshall's defensive strength is their ability to get after the QB, with 17 sacks, but App State ranks 22nd in protecting the QB, and I think the ability to run will allow them to continue that success.

This is also a big revenge game for App State, a team that has 15 super seniors.  They have 10 returning starters on defense, and they lost this game last year 17-7 getting out played in the trenches.  Marshall just does not seem like the same defense as last year under the new coaching staff.  Giving up 42 points to EAst CArolina, a offense that really has not looked good this year is quite concerning.  Add that with Marshall's QB Grant Wells who has more INT than TD passes this year and was only 11-25 0TD/ 1 INT vs. App State at HOME a year ago, and I think you have a recipe for the home favorite here.  App State has also been better against the run than the stats have suggested.  They gave up 175 yards rushing against Miami, but 79 of those came against QB D'eriq King.  Grant Wells is not going to pull of anything like that in this game.  Marshall's offense also has been relying on the explosive plays ranking 6th in the country, but I think that's partially due to the level of competition that they have faced, Navy, NC Central, and ECU.  App State is 8-2 vs. C-USA teams, and the Sun Belt which is 58-68 lifetime has really turned the tables the last 4 years they have gone 24-10 against the C-USA with margins of victories well over a TD!

Oklahoma St +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

We have a 0-2 ATS team facing a phony 2-0 ATS Boise State team.  I have not been impressed with Boise State thus far who really should not have covered either game.  Against UCF they were outgained by 290 yards and lost by 5 points and covered the spread thanks to a 14 point swing as they had a 100 yard pick six.  Against UTEP they enjoyed a +5 TO margin, and scored 31 points in a 3 minute span of the game.

Oklahoma State is getting no love here, and it’s exactly the situation I want to back Mike Gundy in.  Over the last 10 years he is 10-6 ATS as a road dog and 27-11 ATS in non-conference games.  This is also a better matchup for the weather as it looks like 15mph winds with 40mph gusts, and Oklahoma State has the better rushing attack and run defense, and feature a mobile QB in Spencer Sanders.  I think Boise State’s defense which ranked 25th last year in YPP, and 10th in sack % could cause some issues as they like to run confusing style defense with a lot of movement and could force a turnover here to allow them to pull the upset, but I expect a tight game and the +4 is well worth it.

Auburn / Penn State Under 53 2.2% 

This is probably the best game of the day, and I expect it to be a low scoring battle.  First of all we have Mike Bobo as the OC for Auburn, which is likely not an improvement, and you have Bo Nix who has struggled in road games and against top defenses, and he lost some talent at WR to the NFL.  Auburn’s best offense in this game is Tank Bigsby at RB, and I look for a conservative style from Auburn early in this game.

On the flip side Penn State has struggled offensively, and it’s not surprising when you consider they have their 3rd OC in 3 years.  Penn State is 5-2 to the under against the SEC, and struggled big time against a similarly good defense in Wisconsin.  This game will be a white out, and the fact that Auburn has come down from +6 to +4.5 in spots lead me to believe this will be a close low scoring game.  The total has not moved at all, and I love the Under here.

Washington -17 2.2% 

Memphis +140 3 %ML Play

Miss State had a big win over NC State last week, and we gave that winner out as a premium play.  That was a great game for Miss State as the defense had the advantage of playing at home at night with all the crowd noise hyped for an ACC team getting some hype coming into their building.  This time Miss State goes on the road to face Memphis who gave up 50 points last week, but scored 50, and Miss State has LSU next week.  I think we are getting some line value here with Memphis, a team that has been very good from the G5, getting a rare game against a P5 opponent in their own building.  Let’s not forget Miss State highly touted defense after last week gave up 34 points, 370 passing yards on 83% completion to Louisiana Tech the week before.

Memphis has the speed on defense to cause some issues with what Miss State wants to do offensively, and this offense is still not clicking like a Mike Leach well oiled machine.  They struggled in the first half last week, and needed some help from special teams in both weeks to put up the points they did.  However, Memphis perennially has some of the best special teams units every single year ranking in the top 50 in all of the last 6 years including 4 Top 10 SEASONS.  Memphis also has familiarity with the Air Raid offense.  Their DC Mike Macyntire was the head coach at Colorado from 13-18 and faced Mike Leach’s Washington State team 4 times.  Colorado’s offense was shut out twice, but their defense still held Washington State under their season averages in all 4 games and in the games in Colorado they held them under their season average by 10.25ppg.  Part of that success was red zone defense, and that is exactly where Miss State has struggled thus far under leaching with just a 44% red zone TD% on the road.  Memphis OC, Kevin Johns also spend 2018 at Texas Tech under Kliff Kingspury as the OC/WR coach and knows the trends that Miss State runs here.

Memphis offense has always been dynamic and I see no reason for that to change.  They have SEC speed all over, and Miss State while they looked dominant last week they have not played well on the road particularly against the pass where they really struggled.  With this game having a higher total of 64, I don’t think the +3 makes a ton of sense so I’ll take Memphis on the money line to pull that upset.

Purdue +7.5 2.2%  

The biggest red flag for Notre Dame is their struggles on the offensive line, and struggles to run the ball, which has bee a strength for this team.  They are averaging just 2.7 ypc, and have allowed 10 sacks.  Purdue has really shined this season in stopping the run, and their best defensive player Kalarflis could be a difference maker in this game as Purdue is playing with house money to pull the upset. 

Notre Dame has actually been outgained on the ground 198-99, and while Purdue is not likely to do much on the ground they are just as talented in the passing game if not more than Notre Dame.  Jack Coan has been a great presence in the huddle and has played great, but Jake Plummer and David Bell have been great for Purdue, and Jeff Brohm is an excellent coach, 17-5 ATS in his last 22 as a dog.  Purdue 18-4 ATS in their last 22 as a road dog.  This just feels like a down season for Notre Dame, and a chance for Purdue to pull an upset in the instate rivalry game that has not been played for 7 years. 

Minnesota Gophers +120 3% play

Colorado is getting a lot of respect here, because of how they played against A&M, but in a way they were a bit lucky, and the offense has not done anything great yet this season.  Colorado lost 10-7 to TExas A&M team, and I bet that took a lot of effort out of this team.  A deeper look into that game A&M lost their starting QB early, and fumbled at the goal line.  It still does not excuse A&M a 17 point favorite from nearly losing the game.  I think this game will be a bit different as Minnesota has one of the largest physical offensive lines in the country, and an experienced QB in Tanner Morgan. 

Minnesota lost their starting RB Ibrahim, but Trey Potts stepped in last week to carry 34 times for 178 yards against a very good Miami Ohio run defense that ranked in the top 25 last year.  This will be a close game, but I think we have a little value here with the Gophers as they were expected to handle Miami Ohio last week, and didn't, while Colorado was not expected to play with A&M. 

I also think there is a bit of a coaching advantage for PJ Fleck.  I'm not concerned with elevation issues for Minnesota in what should be a low scoring game that is not played with tremendous pace.  Minnesota also is following the science and getting here late, because the longer you are at elevation the more it impacts you.  Last trend I'll throw out there is Since 2005, if you fade a team that is a home favorite after scoring lesst han 9 points you hit 60% ATS.  Colorado -2.5 here only put up 7 points in their last game.

West Virginia –125 2.5%

Virginia Tech is the ranked team, but a road dog, which is usually a great spot to take the favorite.

We have two really good defenses going in an old Big East rivalary in the early going on Saturday.  In my opinion Virginia Tech is a bit over rated after their UNC upset at home to open the season, and the ACC is down this year.  Compare that with the fact that West Virginia lost at Maryland, but gave up two 60+ passing TD’s, which I don’t see happening against Virginia Tech, a team that is 109th with only 12 passing plays over 10+ yards, and will be without their top pass catcher, TE James Mitchell.  I’m also not a big fan of Braxton Burmeister who has been a very inaccurate QB throughout his career, and his legs, which are his biggest threat may not be here on the road against a very stout West Virginia defense, that held two running QB’s in check last year.  West Virginia in their last 3 seasons at home have forced 2 turnovers per game, and Virginia Tech’s offense the last two years has turned the ball over 2 times per game on the road.  This is not an easy place to play.

For West Virginia, I like Leddie Brown at QB, and Jarret Doege has good H/A splits where he had a 148 QB rating at home last year where he is more comfortable.  I expect this offense to play better this year, and they’ll get their chance to prove it at home against an old rival in Virginia Tech.

Miami -5.5 1.1% Free Play

Nobody has faced a tougher schedule to start the season than Miami facing App State and Alabama.  We clearly have some line value here with an 0-2ATS team taking on a 2-0 ATS team.  Two key factors why I like Miami this week.  D’eriq King seems to be back after rushing for 79 yards a week ago, and the havoc Miami’s defenses typically cause opposing offenses.  Michigan State has not played anyone, and getting far too much respect here for a unit that was really bad last year, outside the top 100. I don’t see them continuing to dominate and they faced an FCS foe, and a Northwestern team that had to replace more starters than anyone else in the country.  The speed of Miami, in the hot humid Florida weather will ultimately be the difference as Miami will be able to force some turnovers, and King will lead his team to a victory to get their season back on track.  Michigan State’s defense did give up 70% completion 3 TD and 0INT to Northwestern, and King is much more dynamic player.

Western Mich +15 3.3% play

Western Mich was a 17 point dog at Michigan in week 1 and failed to cover, and they’ll get another shot at P5 team in Pitt that has been extremely inconsistent, and just 3-9-1 ATS as a double digit favorite.  Pitt is a totally different team offensively than Michigan, and Western Michigan really matches up better.  Michigan ran for over 300 yards against Western Michigan in week 1 and that’s just not going to happen with Pitt when you consider how one dimensional, they have been the last couple of years and have really struggled running the ball.  Pitt’s offense is led by a future NFL QB Kenny Pickett, but they lack explosiveness, and get it done with methodical offense, and they are not the type of team that can put the game away with their running game, which will leave the back door wide open, IF we even need that.  Western Michigan’s defensive strengths match up well with Pitt’s offense.  They ranked 30th in sack % last year, and their secondary is also the strength, which bodes well against Pitt’s passing offense.  Pitt’s offense despite putting up 41 points at Tennessee really did struggle with less than 5 yards per play, and only a 38% success rate.

Western Michigan’s offense is balanced, which will allow them to score some points on the road against a tough defense.  They put up over 120 yards rushing against Michigan, and scored 14 points, but they lost their 2nd WR Skyy Moore early in that game and he will return for this game.  Their offensive line is a strength and ranked top 30 in protecting their QB who has not turned the ball over in his career. 

Pitt has looked good early on, but the defense will take a step back this year, and I think this line is inflated due to their 2-0 record after they beat two really bad teams in Umass and Tennessee.  I cashed on Pitt -3 last week, but honestly felt fortunate.  Western Michigan last week held Illinois State to a record low 57 yards and forced nine three and outs.  Illinois State is an FCS foe, but regularly in the Top 25 so that defensive performance by Western Michigan was really impressive.