Arizona -2

Arizona out performed the market last week as they out gained BYU in their 24-16 loss as double digit dog.  This team fought back from a 21-3 deficit, which is not a surprise when you look at the coaching staff they assembled.  Jedd Fisch, the HC spent last year as the QB coach with the Patriots under legendary HC Bill Bellichick, and previous two years with the Rams under Sean McVay.  His offensive coordinator Brennan Carrol is the son of Pete Carrol where he spent years on the Seahawks coaching staff, and to go along with these young guys they bring in DC, Don Brown.  Brown offers the veteran presence and has turned around defenses in all his stops including CONNECTICUT.  Yes, UCONN, under Brown as DC was the 58th ranked defense and then 10th in 2012. He then went on to coach for 3 years at Boston College where he improved their defense from 88th, 33rd, to 5th from YPP perspective, and then later at Michigan where he had 4 top 10 defenses in his 5 seasons.

San Diego State is a one-dimensional offense that relies on the running game, which has not produced well under Brady Hoke.  In fact this team is not the same team that would compete for the Mountain West.  They are just 18-16 under Hoke.  QB Jordon Brookshine was 7-20 with 115 yards, and the offense turned the ball over 3 times, and trailed New Mexico State 10-0 in the first half.  That was the same New Mexico State team that did no play a game in 2020, and lost to UTEP 30-3.  I don’t think it’s a good match up for the offense against an aggressive style defense that Arizona will be playing under Don Brown.  This defense will have struggles this year, but against teams that struggle offensively is where I can see Arizona having success.

San Diego State still runs their 3-3-5 on defense and have remained as stout as ever, but traveling on the road against this coaching staff with the players buying in trying to end a 13 game losing streak just feels like a game that Arizona will want to have to set the culture of the program for the future under this coaching staff.

Washington +7 3.3% play 

Miss State +1.5 3.3% play

I have the wrong team favored here.  Playing on the road in Starkville is not an easy place to play a road game.  NC State did not have good road stats in a year where there were no fans in 2020, and the ACC has been down the last few years.  This is a team that missed Clemson last year, and some of their stats are a bit misleading in my opinion, because they played in a conference that was down.  Last week the SEC dominated the ACC, 3-0 ATS, Alabama covered over Miami, Georgia over Clemson and Ole Miss over Louisville.

NC State getting love after blowing out South Florida 45-0, as they are getting 84% of the tickets in this one.  USF is in a complete rebuild and one thing I found interesting from that game was the fact that NC State did not record a sack.  If you are going to stop the Air Raid you better be able to get to the QB.  Tony Gibson the NC State defensive coordinator has faced Texas Tech a few times over his career when he was at West Virginia, and in 6 match ups his defenses gave up 16 TD’s and 7 INT’s, and 30.5ppg.  Last year this NC State pass defense ranked 42nd, but they faced just 3 top 60 passing offenses, and allowed 35.33ppg, and went 1-2, a 1 point win over Liberty.  Defending Mike Leach’s scheme is not that simple, and unless you prepare for it for weeks before a bowl game or a bye week, and memorize route trees, it’s going to be hard to stop.  It makes sense that Miss State struggled a bit against Louisiana Tech to open the season before scoring 20 4th quarter points as LA Tech had all summer to study to come up with a game plan. 

Miss State’s defense should be very good once again as they have 8 returning starters led by an experienced secondary, but the defensive line should once again be a strength.  They ranked 27th in stopping the run last year while NC State averaged just 2.75ypc on the road last year.  They’ll need to get the running game going to take the crowd out of the game, but I’m not sure they can.

Arkansas +7 4.4%

TEXAS IS BACK!  We have heard this before, and this team is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS win, while Arkansas 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12, and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as a dog.  Arkansas will be hosting arguably their biggest home game in quite in a while as they host their old SWC rival.  This is a huge game for Arkansas, and as good as Texas looked in week 1, Hudson Card has to prove it on the road against a senior laden defense that was a top 50 pass defense last year and brings back 10 starters.

Texas is getting the majority of the money and tickets, and I think it’s because people think Arkansas win was misleading against Rice as they trailed 17-7 in the third quarter before rattling off 31 unanswered points.  A lot of their struggles were self inflicted as their first 18 drives averaged the 17 yard line.  They also had a punt blocked, bad snap on third down, and penalty issues that led to the poor field position.  They lost one of their defensive leaders due to targeting in Grant Morgan, but he’ll be back to start this game.  KJ Jefferson also seemed to have first game jitters that after he connected with Tyson Morris went away.  It seemed mental to me as Arkansas cruised after that.  PFF ranked KJ’s performance as the #1 QB rushing performance of week 1.  Texas stopped a relatively mobile Levi Lewis in game 1, but that’s not a huge part of Lewis game in 2018 he averaged just 1.6 yards per carry, 2019 2.83, 2020 he averaged 6.09ypc, but 50% of his yards came in 2 games so just because Texas stopped Lewis does not mean they’ll stop Jefferson who is a lot bigger than Lewis, and has a future 1st or 2nd round pick at WR in Treylon Burks.

Texas offense is not going to look as great here on the road.  Arkansas home/away splits are outstanding where they play significantly better at home as they allowed 6 passing TD and 9INT at home compared to 12/4 ratio on the road, and they allowed 1.55ypc less at home than on the road and held a Georgia running game to 2.88 to open last season.  They were without their 320lb starting DT Ridgeway last week, and get him back here, which should help free up the LB.  Speaking of health, Texas loses their starting RG who is questionable for this game.

Lastly, I really like the coaching staff at Arkansas, while Sark is great and has proven he can rebuild it’s just their second game.  OC Kendall Briles in his second year, and DC Barry Odom has led some very good SEC Defenses in the past.  This line also opened up at 4.5 and moved to 7, with resistance at some of the sharper books likes like Bookmaker.

Cal +11.5

Cal favored last week, and got out to a 14-0 lead by running the ball, but ironically switched to passing the ball and had red zone struggles.  This is still an excellent defense with leaders on that side of the ball, and they just played one of the top offenses from 2020, and a future NFL QB in Carson Strong.  Cal opened as a 9.5 point dog and is now out to 11.5, which is a 2 point line move in favor of the favorite, which I find value on the dog.  Since 2015 the home favorite in P5 during week 1 and week 2 with a line move of 2-3.5 are just 26-46 ATS.

This is also a repeat of the 2018 Bowl game where Cal lost 10-7, but had 5 turnovers.  I think Cal’s QB Chase Garbers can be better here, and I think they showed last week they can run the ball against this type of defense, that plays two high safeties.  I would hope the offense learned from last week that they should keep running the ball, and TCU deploys a 4-2-5 defense, with high safeties which will invite Cal to run the ball. 

I think we have two similar teams here, and Cal is back in their role as a dog that they like under Head Coach Wilcox who is 19-8 ATS as a dog with 12 outright upsets.  TCU as a home favorite just 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games.  Cal played a game that went deep into the 4th quarter that they eventually lost while TCU cruised past a terrible FCS team. I think Cal gets more from their game experience, and I think they will be a pesky group here.  Worth noting, TCU has played 3 games vs. PAC 12, and while they are 3-0 their wins have come by 6, 2, and 3.

South Carolina -2 2.2% play

South Carolina had a great debut without their starting QB And RB dominating an FCS foe in a 46-0 win to open up the Shane Beamer debut as they held opponent Eastern Illinois to 109 total yards.  They had a defensive TD and were great on special teams.  Now they’ll get their starting QB Luke Doty back as well as the SEC leading rusher Kevin Harris after they rushed for 254 yards a week ago.  Doty adds another element to the offense as he can also be a runner, and East Carolina gave up over 200 yards rushing to App State last week.

South Carolina won’t be cocky going into this one as the coaching staff has experience looking past an East Carolina team and then losing.  Shane Beamer and Torrian Gray were on Virginia Tech staff that lost here a week after they beat Ohio State, the eventual National Champ that year.  Clayton White was on the staff at NC State that lost 33-30.  OC Marcus Satterfield said, “I played their once when we were at Temples, and it’s one of the toughest places to play a college football game…We have to go in there and be prepared for one of the toughest things we’ve been in our life.”  The coaches spent all week coaching up the players not to take ECU lightly, and they clearly have the right coaches to do so.  Shane Beamer also recruited  East Carolina’s QB Holton Ahlers, which is always an advantage.  Ahlers was under pressure last week and his offensive line allowed 18 pressures, and I don’t see that drastically changing this week with a quality defensive line from South Carolina.

South Carolina also really needs this game if they are going to get to a bowl game.  They really can’t afford to look past East Carolina and a road game at Georgia next week that likely they know they can’t win. 

Pitt -3 2.2% Play

Tenn led Bowling Green 14-6 at the half.  Bowling Green has been terrible the last few years were outgained in the MAC by 150 yards last year.  This is a rebuilding year for Tenn under Josh Heupel, who wants to play extremely fast, but the only problem with that is the offense he has just isn’t very good, and he’s going to hurt his defense in this game, which could lead to Pitt winning by double digits. 

Pitt has an advantage at QB with veteran Kenny Pickett over Joe Milton, the Michigan transfer.  Milton will probably turn the ball over in this game, and as big is he is he’s not much of a runner, and Pitt can shut down a running game.  They held UMASS to under 50 yards rushing, and always has a great run defense and overall defense under Narduzi.  It’s also worth noting Pitt went on the road in 2019 as a +9 point dog at Josh Heupel’s UCF team and won 35-34 after building an early 21-0 lead.  Tennessee’s offense is not nearly as good as UCF, and if Pitt gets up early I think they can build on their lead and cruise here

LSU -2.5 2.2% play 

Clemson -3 4.4% NCAAF POD

Georgia is getting a lot of hype for all the players they brought in, but there are some question marks I would still need answered to give them this type of respect.  The big one is about their QB and play calling from Todd Monken.  Is Kirby Smart really going to let him play call and let this offense go?  I think we will see more aggressive play, but is JT Daniels good enough and does he have the help around him for this game?  JT Daniels hype has always been a big thing he was the #3 QB coming out of high school behind Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Field.  He put together a great final 4 games for Georgia with 10 TD and 2 INT.  Great, but who did he actually do it against?  In his two road games he played South Carolina and Missouri with roughly 10,000 fans, and both defenses were not good at all against the pass.  In fact the 4 teams he faced ranked 95th, 106th, 58th, and 25th.  The top two pass defenses were not as good as the numbers suggest considering they faced an average opponent QB rating of 86th and 75th.   In the bowl game against Cincinnati we saw JT Daniels struggle under pressure.

Georgia has an inexperienced offensive line that ranked 73rd in passing down sack rate allowed and will go up against a Clemson DL that is #1 in havoc generated form the front 7.  Brent Venables is still here as the DC and not going anywhere so there is a lot of stability.  JT Daniels has really struggled in his career under pressure.  According to PFF, in 91 passes under pressure he has had 15 turnover worthy plays and just 26 completions.  Clemson’s defense returns 10 starters and ranked 8th in ypp allowed last year.  This is easily the best defense JT Daniels has ever faced in his life.

Clemson breaks in a young QB in DJ Uiagalelai, but he got two starts last year.  In those two starts he faced two solid pass defenses in Boston College at home, and Notre Dame on the road.  Clemson did not lose the game against Notre Dame because of DJ.  In those two games he had 69% completion percentage, 4 TD to 0INT, and 9.18 yards per play.  Clemson OL is a bit under sized, but I think they’ll use tempo here to their advantage against a Georgia defense that wants to stay fresh.  Georgia’s secondary was 51st in QB rating allowed last year and that came against an average 79th ranking QB rating opponent.  Alabama and Florida were the only top 2 passing offenses and they lost both giving up 41 and 44 points.  Georgia lost their top 4 CB’s in terms of snap count, which could be a good thing, but they brough in a pre-season All-American  Tykee Smith from West Virginia, but he’s out for this game, and they get Clemson CB Derion Kendrick to transfer in, but Kendrick in the big games in 2019 vs. LSU, and 2020 vs Ohio State was targeted by Fields and Burrow and he gave up 13 receptions 274 yards, and 5TD’s!!

I feel Clemson is still ahead of Georgia, and the price of -3 is nice.  Clemson almost has to feel like the underdog here.  This game is a neutral field

Texas State +14 2.2% play 

Texas Tech +120 2% 

Stanford +3 1.1% 

Northwestern -155 3% play

The ML offers more value than -3.5 or -3 -120.

Both Northwestern and Michigan State have a lot of unanswered questions going into the season.  Michigan State lost 26 players in the transfer portal and brought 20 guys in that are supposedly better.  To me that is a lot more instability and unknowns, and I just don’t understand how this line has moved 4.5 points from -7.5 down to -3.  I don’t think the initial line could have been that far off and at this point you have value on Northwestern.  Michigan State has 16 returning starters while Northwestern has 8 and that is likely part of the reason the price has moved in favor of Michigan State.

However, we have a major coaching advantage for Northwestern with Pat Fitzgerald vs. Mel Tucker.  Fitzgerald had all spring and summer camps to focus on a Big Ten opener, and it’s great that Northwestern’s only loss last year was against Michigan State, and it happened due to 4 turnovers in the game on the road.  I think this is a major revenge game for Northwestern, it’s at home, and I still don’t trust Michigan State’s offense This time Northwestern is at home which is a major advantage in 2021 after a season without fans in 2020.  Northwestern also lost their long time DC Mike Hankwitz, but Pat Fitzgerald is still a defensive mind, and he is saying this is his best DL yet.

Northwestern named QB 1, Hunter Johnson who was a 5* transfer from Clemson that has been disappointing, but he was new last year, and it sounds like has made better decisions and has a better grasp of the offense and has developed into a leader.

Duke -6.5 3.3% play

Boise State +7 -125 buy ½ 2.5% play

Boise vs UCF is one of the better G5 matchups, and now that this is climbing to +7 I feel good about Boise.  The noise here is can Boise contend with the heat, humidity, and a near full crowd.  Boise has been preparing with noise machines, and playing indoors rising the humidity with water on the field.  This is also nothing new for them traveling and playing the state of Florida and they’ve done very well in the past against the AAC, 5-0 ATS.

We have two new coaching staffs with Andy Avalos taking over for Boise, and Gus Malzahn taking over for UCF.  There are a lot more moving parts with the UCF hire as Malzahn has coaches he hired that he hasn’t coached with, and new players, transfers to work in where Avalos kept a DC, and has 18 returning starters, and he’s aware of this culture of Boise where he played as a LB, and coached from 212-2018, before taking the Oregon DC position where he had success, and faced off to start the 2019 season against Gus Malzahn’s Auburn Tigers.  Oregon was right in that game despite losing 21-17, and I expect a close game here albeit higher scoring.  Boise has more stability in their roster and coaching and system for game #1 of a season and I feel that counts for something.

We have two very good QB’s in Hank Bachmeier vs. Dillon Gabriel.  Gabriel is getting a ton of hype and will be going up against a talented defense, and deep secondary, while Boise will go against a very raw back of the defense for UCF, and they do so with an inexperienced receiver group.  While, Boise has Sr. WR Khalil Shakir who will likely be playing in the NFL next year.  Knowing Gus Malzahn he needs to get the running game going, and it appears Isaiah Bowser (Northwestern transfer) will probably get the nod due to injuries, but going up against a Boise run defense that is usually stout.

Both teams underperformed statistically last year, and Boise’s numbers were really down, and I think that is why UCF is getting 74% of the tickets and 85% of the money, but I don’t think it’s warranted.  Boise had a ton of COVID issues last year with multiple games of 20-30 guys missing in action.  Both of these teams played BYU last year and had very similar results, and Boise played without Bachmeier.  I would say there is not a lot that separates these two teams, and I’m not as high on the Malzahn hire as others so I really like Boise to keep this close and have a chance to pull the upset.

New Mexico State +10 1.1% Free Play 

Nebraska -6.5 -113 3% play

The narrative is to fade Nebraska, because Scott Frost is under investigation for NCAA violations, and this team has been a dumpster fire since he came here.  They are on a road facing an Illinois team that returns 18 starters and beat Nebraska last year pretty badly on the road, but this Nebraska team has revenge on their mind and all summer leading up to this.

Nebraska had -15 TO’s last year, which took points off the board and put their defense in a bad situation and were -5 TO in the game against Illinois a season ago.

Is Nebraska’s run defense going to be bad again?  They return 10 starters for a unit that should only improve.  They gave up 285 yards and 4 rushing TD’s to Illinois last year, but Illinois had the worst run defense allowing over 5 yards per carry ranking 105th, and that came against rushing offenses that averaged 84.75th rushing offense, compared to Nebraska who ranked 57th against an average rushing offense faced of 63. 

Brandon Peters for Illinois is getting a lot of hype, and I don’t understand why.  He doesn’t have any weapons at WR, and this passing offense ranked 90th in EPA pass offense, and their pass defense ranked 115th.  Nebraska was not much better on either side, but they were better ranking 82nd  and 61st in overall QB rating defense, which was significantly better and against better talent than Illinois faced.  Illinois passing defense ranked 124th, against an average opponent QB rating 87.  Adrian Martinez doesn’t scare anyone at QB, but I think they added some talent at WR in the transfer portal that they haven’t had before, and I like to see Matt Lubrick, the OC in his second year.  Lubrick at Oregon (2016), and Washington (2017 & 18) led all 3 teams to top 25 offenses.

Value here with Nebraska they closed -17 at home, which would indicate a -11 on the road.  Brett Bielema taking over Illinois should not be worth 4 points, and neither should one game where Nebraska had 5 turnovers.  This is a team that hung right with Northwestern on the road, and Iowa on the road.

ohio st +8.5 5.5%

Ohio State +7.5 5.5% POD

oVER 66.5 3.3% PLAY 

Alabama +19.5 3.3% play

I think you are paying a big tax if you want to back Alabama today.  We have a couple things working for us here as I think everyone remembers that 2012 Championship game, and Notre Dame getting their asses kicked.  A lot has changed since then, but I think that is part of the tax you pay here.  I also think that Nick Saban with less than 2 weeks to prepare + holiday vs. an entire month to prepare are two different things.  I’ve been very impressed with the Notre Dame staff and even though I went against them vs. Clemson I think this team has improved despite the spread nearly doubling from 2012.

Alabama’s defense will struggle at times here in my opinion.  If you combine success rate offense, EPA run, and EPA pass, Notre Dame averages out #23 combined.  Alabama has played 5 teams that averaged top 50, and in those games their defense gave up on average 32.2 points per game.  We just saw the game against Florida where Kyle Trask torched them, and while Notre Dame doesn’t really have a Kyle Pitts or Toney at WR, they do have more of a balanced offense with a running game, and the feet of Ian Book, which is something Saban’s defenses have struggled with in the past.

Alabama’s offense will have its day against Notre Dame, but it’s worth noting that Alabama has played just two defenses ranked on average top 50 in success rate defense, EPA run, and EPA defense, and that Notre Dame’s average of 14.33 comes in the best.  Alabama scored 41 against Georgia, and 41 against Miss State.  If Notre Dame forced 4 turnovers in the two games against Clemson, and I think they may be able to force one here.

What scares me in this game as a Notre Dame backer is the fact that special teams is a huge edge for Alabama, but I think that gets offset here with Alabama being a 19.5 point favorite and looking to preserve the health of the team late in the game if they are up big leaving the back door wide open for a top 5 QB in the nation.  It’s also worth noting that while Notre Dame has gotten their asses kicked in these BCS Bowl games/ Playoff games 0-6 SU & ATS their last 6 losing on average 24 ppg that this year is a bit different with the preparation time, and I believe Notre Dame’s offense is better.  We also saw this program go toe to toe with Georgia last year losing 17-23 on the road, and in 2017 they lost 19-20 at home.  That’s the same 2017 Georgia team that had Alabama down big at the half in the National Championship game.  Georgia was up again this year on the road at Alabama 24-20, before the coaching advantage happened at the half, and Georgia’s passing game went in the shitter. I don’t see that happening here and I think Notre Dame can cover this spread worser teams have.  Missouri lost by 19 to Alabama, Ole Miss by 15, Florida by 8, and Georgia by 17.

Northwestern 1% 

Georgia -7 5.5% NCAAF POD 

ARmy +7 2.2% 

Under 2% 

Oklahoma -135 5.5% POD

Wisconsin / Wake Under 52 2% 

Colorado +8 3% 

Miami +1 3% 

Under 3% 

BYU +7 -125 BUY HALF POINT 3% 

Tulane -1 2.2% play 

Tulsa/Cin Under 47 2^% 

Florida +16 2.2% 

Florida +17.5 3.3% play

I think Florida can stay within this number as we are getting a few extra points after Florida’s loss last week.  Alabama’s uptick defense in my opinion is a bit overrated when you look at their schedule since the Georgia game, which was the last time this defense faced a top 60 unit.  They gave up 24 points to Georgia in the first half who moved the ball extremely well on them.  Since that game they have faced an average YPP offense ranking 92.75.  The only time they faced an offense close to Florida’s capabilities in the passing game was Ole Miss who put 48 points on them.  Florida gets their star TE back in Pitts here, which should be a huge deal to go along with Toney. I think the offense finds a way to stay within this number, and the back door if necessary, could be left wide open.

The last 8 times Alabama has faced a top 35 yards per play offense they have given up 34.8ppg, and the last 5 times they have faced a Top 11 YPP offense they have given up 39.6 points per game, and have lost

Clemson -10 3.3% play 

Northwestern +18.5 1% 

Iowa State +6 3.3% 

Oregon +3 3.3% play 

Ball State +13. 5 4.5% 

Virginia +3 3.3% play

This is an interesting game as you have a rivalry game to wrap up each team’s final game as both teams and players have indicated they do not want to play in a bowl game due to COVID and being able to see their families.  You have Virginia on a 4 game win streak vs. Virginia Tech on a 4 game losing streak, and they’re getting points, which is a natural spot for the public to take the dog.  The numbers guys are going to take Virginia Tech, but I don’t agree with it being the right side.  I think you have the better coaching staff on the side of Virginia with Bronco Mendanhall, and Justin Fuente could be on his way out.  There are rumors that the players don’t really like Fuente, because he interviewed for the Baylor gig last year. 

The matchup has me liking Virginia along with the coaching and situation.  Virginia finally got by Virginina Tech last year, and if they can do it again this year it would be a very big shift in the state for recruiting.  Virginia Tech runs the ball over 60% of the time, but they’re facing a top run defense.  Virginia ranks 34th in ypc allowed, and 42nd in EPA run defense.  Virginia Tech has faced 4 top 50 rushing defenses and they have gone 1-3, with their only win coming all the way back in week 1 against NC State.  Hendon Hooker is a threat running the ball at QB, but he hasn’t stayed healthy throughout games, and he had just 44 yards rushing on 21 carries in last years matchup. 

On the flip side Virginia when they plays a bad run defense they are 5-1, which Virginia Tech certainly is ranking 105th in ypc run defense, and 118th in epa run defense.  Virginia just seems to know how to win games when they can run the ball.  That one loss to Wake Forest came without Brennan Armstrong who is critical to their game plan and one of the best unknown players in the country that people will get to watch tonight.  Virginia against a top 50 run defense are 0-3, but again Virginia Tech has not stopped anyone, and I don’t see it changing here tonight.

Some other factors in this game you have to look at are the fact that Virginia Tech -4 TO margin over their last 3 games, while Virginia has forced 9 turnovers in their last 4 games.  Virginia Tech 6 turnovers in their last 3 games as they faced 3 top 50 run defenses.  Similarly, Virginia in their 4 losses were -9 TO margin, and one game was without Armstrong, and the other 3 against top 50 run defenses.  The team that wins in the trenches wins this game, and I have to say it will be Virginia who has the better red zone defense holding opponents to 52% TD’s compared to Virginia Tech allowing 72%.

USC -165 3.5% PLAY

Miamia -3 2.2% 

Navy +7 2% 

Utah +3 4% 

Nebraska -10 1% 

ARkansas +32.5 3% 

Nevada +115 3% 

Coastal 3% 

West Virginia +7 3% 

Auburn +7

Ohio State -21.5 3% 

Kansas State +7 3% 

TCU +2.5 1% 

Nebraska +7.5 / Arkansas +8.5 3.3% play

I think these two teams are pretty similar, and had similar games against Northwestern and Iowa.  Both teams have some bad losses against supposedly bad teams in the Big Ten.  Purdue lost to Minnesota and Rutgers, while Nebraska lost to Illinois as they had 5 turnovers in that game.  Purdue, a team that likes to pass, while Nebraska is a team that likes to run especially with their QB.  I think this is a close on possession game either way you slice it.  Purdue has faced three top 50 rushing attacks in Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota, and their largest win as against Illinois by 7 and they lost to Minnesota, and beat Iowa by 4.  They are down to their backup QB, and Nebraska will seemingly find themselves in this game with a chance to win and likely lose by 3.  Getting this up over the TD after the line move overnight is extremely attractive.  Nebraska has faced a tougher schedule for what it’s worth with their opponent YPP differentiation at +0.28, compared to Purdue at -0.5.

Arkansas +8.5   

Arkansas gives effort every time they take the field under Sam Pittman.  Arkansas has the better #’s against the tougher competition than Missouri, but Missouri is getting a ton of credit for their recent performances against bad competition.  Arkansas also much better in TO margin this season ranking 16th while Missouri ranks 90th.  I really like how Feleipe Franks has been a leader for this offense, and I think he’ll move the ball against Missouri’s defense that ranks 88th in EPA pass defense, 69th in sack %, and 80th in opposing QB rating.  Missouri also has a top passing offense ranking 43rd, but that has come against an average opponent QB defense of 89.28, while Arkansas ranks 46th, and 31st in EPA pass defense.  Missouri has faced just one top 50 pass defense and only put up 19 points in that game, while their defense has faced 3 top 55 passing offenses, and have allowed 38, 41, and 41 points.  I think this is a great matchup for Arkansas

Lafayette +3 3%

Louisiana Tech -110 2.2% play

Tech has seen multiple games canceled due to COVID, and have not played since Halloween night, where their struggling offense put up 37 points on a very good UAB defense.  In the last 10 days they have also seen their top WR and backup RB opt out, but the line has moved from -3.5 to -1, and I don’t think those players are worth 2.5 points.  They get to face the worst defense that they have faced all year long.  LA Tech is 2-0 vs. defenses who rank in the 90s in YPP allowed.  North Texas ranks 122nd, and they rank 124th in stopping the run.

Now Tech’s offense has struggled, but they have still been able to put up points at times this season, and much of their struggles offensively have had to do with the fact that they have played three top 25 defenses in BYU, Marshall, and UAB.  I like for Louisiana Tech to score some points here as they will finally get to go up against a weaker defense.

The strength of schedule is really not comparable so I feel like we are getting some value with Tech, who also has the better coaching staff along with the fact that they take care of the ball better ranking 36th in TO margin compared to North Texas who ranks 113th.  La Tech’s opponents YPP differential is +0.72, compared to North Texas opponent YPP differential of -0.47, which is a huge differential in strength of schedule.  LA Tech played significantly better in common opponents, and they should still care about this game if they want to get to a bowl game.

Hawaii +7.5 2% 

LSU under 2% 

KState +6.5 3% 

Auburn +24.5 2% 

Clemson 1% 

Georgia Southern 2% 

Penn State O 57 2% 

STanford 3% 

Notre Dame 3% 

Nebraska +14 2% 

Texas +1 3% 

Oklahoma -7

Missouri / Scar O57 2% 

Auburn 1% 

Northwestern +7.5 3% 

OHio State -20.5 2.2% play 

EMU +7 3% 

UCLA +4 3% 

PUrdue +3.5 3% 

Utah STate +10 1% 

TCU +3 

Nebraska +3.5 2.2% 

Minnesota +3.5 3.3% 

Oregon State -120 3.5% 

Clemson -5.5 3% 

South Carolina +10 1% 

Iowa State -13.5 3% 

Georgia -3 5.5% po d

Iowa -6.5 2.2% 

Michigan -3.5 2.2% 

Nebraska +4 3% 

San Jose +10 3% 

Utah STate +8.5 3% 

OHio state -10 2.2% play

Air Force +14 2.2% play 

Texas +3.5 1% 

Auburn +120 3% 

TCU -2.5 3.3% 

IOwa -120 2.5% 

Wyoming -1 5.5% NCAAF POD 

Fresno STate +125 3% 

GA Southern -3 3% 

Michigan -3 2.5% play