Texas Tech +140 3% Money Line Dog of the Week

35% of the money is on Texas Tech, and I really don’t understand how oddsmakers think TCU is 6 points better on a neutral field than Texas Tech.  TCU is also in a major sandwich game here with Oklahoma on deck and coming off a 3OT crushing loss to Baylor. I don’t know how they come back from that.  This team hasn’t beaten anyone this season. They beat Texas at home who was decimated with injuries, and it took a 4 INT game by Sam Ehlinger.

On paper Texas Tech looks very bad on defense ranking 122nd, but they have played 7 of their 9 opponents ranking in the Top 50 in yards per play, and an average opponent ranking 37.88.  TCU is not that team, they are completely one dimensional, and rank 84th in yards per play, and that has come against a weak group of defenses averaging 70th in ypp allowed. I think Texas Tech’s defense can play well here.  When they have faced teams ranked outside the top 50 in yards per play allowed they gave up 20 total points in two games. TCU has not been a good offense on the road, and they have been extremely turnover prone with Max Duggan at QB, who is playing through an injury.  Texas Tech ranks 9th in TO margin, and I think we could see Texas Tech winning the TO margin here, which I feel would give them the outright upset.

TCU’s defense is probably the reason we are seeing them favorites here, and it’s well deserved.  The unit can stop the pass and run, but Texas Tech’s Jet Duffey has played extremely well this season.  And against two comparable defenses in Baylor & Iowa State he completed 71-94 of his passes for more than 600 yards combined.  Texas Tech is led by their offensive line which ranks 6th in sack % allowed, 50th in success rate, and they rank 17th in havoc rate allowed.  TCU faced two other teams that were top 25 in both sack % allowed and havoc rate allowed, and this elite defense gave up 41 points to SMU, and 49 to Iowa State.  I think Texas Tech can score here, and I think their defense can also have one of their better games by forcing a couple of turnovers. Special teams is another advantage for Texas Tech as they have a great punting game, and rank 20th in special teams efficiency compared to TCU’s 78th ranking.

Alabama -20 3.3% play 

Alabama has to be impressive from here on out.  They have everything left to play for after the LSU win, and I really wonder what would have happened if Tua did not fumble in the red zone on that first drive, which changed all the momentum in the game against LSU.  Tua shook the rust off and had a great game, and I don't see Alabama taking their foot off the gas in this one.  20 points is a lot on the road for Alabama to lay, but Miss State is a team trending in the other direction.  They have already lost to LSU by 23, A&M by 19, and Auburn by 33.  Alabama has won on the road this year in SEC by 19 at A&M, and South Carolina by 24 and last year they won on the road in the SEC By 55, 34, and 37 points.

I think we are getting a cheap price here, because everyone thinks Alabama and that locker room thinks there season is over or they are going to have a hangover, but that is clearly in the line.  Obviously Miss State is off a bye here, and that's concerning as they need 2 wins in their next 3 games to get to a bowl, but that win won't come here.  They lost 24-0 last year in this game.  Miss State at the time had the best defense to finish last year 1st in yards per play allowed, 5th vs. the run, and 3rd vs. the pass, and top 30 in TO margin.  This year they are far worse.  103rd in ypp defense, 92nd vs the run, 86th vs. the pass, 69th in TO margin 79th in special teams.  I think Alabama makes a statement, and I believe they are still a top 4 team.  My top 4 is Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, Alabama, and I think that is what we will see in the end.

Missouri +7 2.2% Premium Newsletter Play

Classic buy low sell high situation here after Missouri got shut out last week and Florida blew out Vanderbilt 56-0.  Missouri played without Kelly Bryant and their top WR and both should be back for this game against Florida. Nearly 70% of the money is on Florida here, and the line has not moved.  26% of the tickets on Missouri, and this just smells like a game Florida is going to struggle with. First of all, they have only played 1 true road game against a balanced defense like Miami and lost 28-42 to LSU.  The other three games they are 2-1, but only one of those would have covered this spread as they lost to Georgia only put up 17 points, beat Miami by 4, and beat Auburn by 11 in a bit misleading fashion.

Missouri has just been a different team at home going 5-0  +28.8ppg, and 4-1 ATS, while 0-4 ATS -15.5ppg on the highway.  They just played 3 straight road games, and now they return home, and I think they can give Florida some troubles.  Florida had issues at Kentucky & South Carolina, and this feels a lot like those games. Against Kentucky, Florida trailed 21-10 to start the 4th quarter, before pulling away to win by 8, but it took a 75 yard run, and 4 turnovers to get there.  Missouri is top 50 in TO margin and Top 50 in rushing defense. Kentucky’s two weaknesses are their turnovers 86th in the country and their run defense which ranks 101st in the nation. Against South Carolina it was more of the same. Florida trailed 17-10, and 20-17 late, but a 75 yard TD run gave them momentum to tie it at 17-17.  This was also South Carolina’s game after the Georgia upset.

Missouri needs to get back to running the ball to be successful.  They are averaging 165 yards in their 5 wins, and Florida is allowing 2 yards per carry more on the road than at home.  Missouri also had 221 yards rushing at the swamp last year in their upset win. Missouri does not give up the explosive plays like Kentucky and South Carolina and they’ll have a shot to pull the upset

San Diego State -115 3% Play

A massive game for the Mountain West Division.  The winner is definitely in the driver seat.  San Diego State is off a weird loss to Nevada, but they did outgain Nevada by around 100 yards in that game, but that's giving us value here.  This line had SD State as a dog and then they went back to a 1 point favorite. I'd rather just take them on the money line.  Rocky Long is 8-4-1 ATS the last 10 years as a dog at home.

San Diego State sports an elite defense, and the three times they faced an offense with a top 30 unit of some kind they are 3-0 winning by an average of 9.33ppg, and 2 of those 3 games were on the road and they are home here.  Fresno State's offense has strong numbers, but they are 0-3 against Top 70 defenses with a losing margin of 10ppg, 2 of those 3 were also on the road like they are here.

A closer look at those games and I believe Colorado State or Wyoming who both have a strong rushing attack like Fresno are the most comparable units.  San Diego State held Colorado State to a season low 10 points in their own building as they won 24-10.  Against Wyoming they held them scoreless in 2 of the 4 quarters and held them to 22 points in a 26-22 win.  That win could have been larger had San Diego State not have to settle for a couple of field goals.  Fresno STate's red zone defense has not been the same this year allowing TD's on 66% of opponent posessions.  

San Diego State had just 64 yards rushing last year in this game on the road, but that was against a Fresno defense that ranked 26th vs. the run.  This year they rank 76th vs. the run, and they have had issues stopping the pass as well.  San Diego State may not wow you with their offensive #'s, but they do not turn the ball over.  Only 5 turnovers all eyar long as they are +10 TO margin.  Fresno State ranks 16th in TO margin, but they had 7 TO'S in their 4 road games.  They also had 6 TO's in their 3 games vs. TOP 70 defenses.  San Diego State clearly a bit better on defense than the other 3, and I would assume win the turnover battle. 

San Diego State should also win the special teams battle.  They rank 11th in special teams efficiency compared to Fresno State's 117th ranking.  

Western Michigan -1 2.2% play

Only 36% of the money is on Western Michigan right now.  I don't really understand it other than the fact that Western Michigan has not won a road game, but they faced two P5 opponents, and Ohio is 0-5 ATS at home and have lost to two opponents that are worse than Western Michigan at home.  Western Michigan has an extra day to prepare for this game as well and the match-up favors them.

I think we have an edge here with Western Michigan in this match-up. Both teams have a lot to play for and are similar in a lot of ways led by senior QB's.  Western Michigan's Jon Wassink has put up good numbers with 19 total Td's 7 INT, 7.9 yds/att, 60% completion while Nathan Rourke has put up similar passing #'s 21 total TD's 5 interceptions 8.1 yds/att, 58.8% completion rate, and 625 yards rushing.  Both QB's are capable of picking up first downs with their feet.  The biggest difference I see here is that Western Michigan has a pass rush that ranks 23rd in sack %, while Ohio ranks 96th in protection.  Ohio's defense ranks 103rd in sack %, while Western MIchigan's offensive line ranks 34th in protection.  It's going to be a cold night, and both teams prefer to run the ball anyway, and that's just more important to this match-up but I wanted to bring up the even play of the QB situation, and note that Western Michigan's pass defense has been better overall, and that Ohio has faced 4 TOP 50 pass rushes and they are negative TO margin in 3 of those 5 games.

The run game is a big key here, and both teams are capable of running the ball, and have struggled to stop the run.  Western Michigan ranks 6th, and 99th in offensive and defensive rushing ypc.  Ohio ranks 41st, and 121st, and Western Michigan has allowed around a half yard less in conference play and have gained more over a half yard more in conference play.  Against 80 or worse run defenses Western Michigan has averaged 286 yards and 4 TD's to Ohio who has averaged 241 yards and 3 TD's.  Defensively Ohio against a Top 50 rushing offense has allowed 261.5 yards and 2.25 TD's per game compared to Western Michigan who is allowing 213.25 yds/game and 1.75 TD.  Explosive rushing offense and defense also favors Western Michigan who has 22 rushes of 20+ yards compared to Ohio's 15, and they have allowed 2 fewer as well.  There is a pretty large edge in the running game.

Situational Ohio needs this game to stay alive for a bowl game, but Western Michigan is fighting and has more of a realistic chance at getting to the MAC Championship game.  They got their asses beat in this match-up a year ago mainly because they could not run the ball.  Only 118 yards in that game, but Ohio's run defense was far better, 57 spots better to be exact.  Western Michigan's rushing offense is better this year as well 44 spots better.  Ohio was also +6 TO margin in that game, as Western Michigan lost 4 fumbles.  Ohio's defense has forced 6 fumbles all year.  There is definitely a correlation to how they are playing and the type of teams they are playing that are similar to Western Michigan and TO margin.  Western Michigan is 24th in TO Margin, Ohio ranks 114th as they are -7 on the season, but as I mentioned before when they face a team that's in the top 50 in sack % they just turn the ball over more.

Iowa State +14.5 3.3% play

Both of these teams were off a bye and Oklahoma was hosting Iowa State in 2017 and Iowa State pulled the 38-31 upset.  Actually, Oklahoma had a couple extra days to prepare for that game. I really like Matt Campbell as a HC and I don’t think he gets enough credit here, while he has kept this toa  10 pt game or less each of the last 3 years. Iowa State is clearly closing the gap in my opinion. Yes, Oklahoma has gotten better on defense, but Iowa State compared to last year has gotten better on offense and defense against tougher competition.  The biggest difference for Iowa State has been the play of the offensive line. They now have a rushing attack that at least can create some balance, and they rank top 25 in sack % allowed, power success, and havoc rate allowed. This should really help them against Oklahoama whose defensive strength is their pass rush.  If Oklahoma can’t get to Purdy they are going to put up points.

Iowa State’s defense has better #’s this year so far, and they are balanced against the run and pass.  Jalen Hurts despite putting up ridiculous #’s this year is still what I consider to be more of a one dimensional QB.  I hate saying that, because I really like Jalen’s character, but the fact of the matter is he got away with so many questionable decisions in that Kansas State game.  He nearly cost them the Texas game with his play in the red zone. Oklahoma’s offense ranks #1 across the board, but they have yet to play a Top 70 defense. 99.5 on average from a yards per play allowed perspective.  Iowa State’s defense is very tricky, and they are led by excellent LB’s. I still think Jalen gets his 100+ rushing yards, but I think Iowa State can hold their own in the red zone much like Texas did which kept Texas in that game despite playing poorly.  This Iowa State is built to stop this type of offense, and they do it by confusing you and forcing you into TO’s. Oklahoma’s defense as improved as they have been are coming off a very bad game against Kansas State, and they have forced just 6 turnovers all year.  I think the secondary is still very weak, and we might see it get lit up on Saturday.

Duke +8 3.3% play

Notre Dame in November with nothing to play for is almost an automatic fade, and with 2 losses they are clearly out of the playoff discussion.  This team appears to be mailing it in the way they have played the last two weeks now they get a Duke team who beat them in 2016 at Notre Dame. Duke gets them in their own building which is a very big deal and they are expecting a sell out crowd.  Duke has 9 Jr’s and Sr’s on the defense which is TOP 50 across the board, 31st in YPP, 30th run defense, and 50th vs. the pass, and they have a 31st pass rush. Notre Dame is 0-2 on the road this year vs. a top 50 defense, and their only win vs. a top defense was against Virginia, but I believe they had 2 defensive scores in that game and were +4 in TO margin.

The key for Notre Dame is running the ball, not the passing game.  Can Tony Jones stay healthy? He’s probable for this game, but it’s a stiff test going up against Duke who held Alabama to less than 150 yards and less than 3.5 yards per carry.  Notre Dame when held under 150 yards rushing are just 8-10 straight up, and in their wins have come by just 5.5 points in 7 of those 8 wins have been by less than the spread here.

Duke is also off the bye, and Cutcliffe is an excellent coach.  My concern is Duke’s offense and that’s why we don’t have a larger play here.  Duke has turned the ball over far too much. 20 turnovers in their last 9 home games dating back to last season.  That is bound to regress. When they had a bye earlier this year they had 0 turnovers, and Notre Dame’s defense really hasn’t been forcing turnovers.  I also think Duke’s QB Quenton Harris can run the ball. Notre Dame faced a few different rushing QB’s Virginia Techs’s Quincy Patterson had 77 yards on 19 carries, Louisville’s Jawon Pass had 67 yards and 2 TD’s.  That will be a huge X-factor in this game, and if Harris can have a big day Duke will pull the upset.

Cal +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

74% of the money is on Washington State here.  I don’t really understand what they have done to be over a TD favorite on the road.  It’s definitely recency bias here as Washington State nearly upset Oregon before their bye, but they have always played well against Oregon. Cal is obviously a top 50 defense, and Washington State is 0-3 vs. TOP 50 defenses this season. Can you really be impressed with any of Washington State’s victories?  Colorado, Houston, and New Mexico State? I know Washington State played better in their last two games, but both Colorado and Oregon whom they should have beat always has trouble with Mike Leach’s offense. I believe Washington State has covered like 9 games in a row vs Washington State, and Colorado has lost by 20+ points 3 years in a row.

Washington State off a bye is never a good thing under Mike Leach.  They have struggled in bowl games, and it’s because the offense doesn’t change anything.  The bye week certainly helped Cal more as they get to really prepare for Washington State and their route concepts.  Cal features 3 All-PAC 12 caliber guys, and Washington State in the last two seasons has thrown 7 interceptions against Josh Wilcox’s defense.  I’d say he has a good handle on Washington State’s offense. The bigger question is can Cal score any points? 

First of all, I do think they win the TO battle in this game they rank 36th in TO margin, and they have done that against an average opponent TO margin ranking 35th.  Washington State ranks 95th in TO margin. Cal’s offensive #’s have been terrible, due to the QB situation, but it looks like Devon Modster will be back for this game and could give Cal a spark.  Part of the problem for Cal is that they have faced a lot of top defenses. Only three times did they face a defense that was not ranked in the Top 70. They beat North Texas and Ole Miss, but lost to Oregon State by only 4 points.  They scored 23, 28, and 17 points. I don’t see Washington State scoring more than 21-24 points in this game when they only scored 19 last year in their 19-13 win at home which took a TD at the end of the game with 32 seconds left. The year before when they traveled to Cal at night they put up just 3 points in a crushing loss as a 17 point favorite.  Washington State’s defense ranks 110th in yards per play, 107th in rushing yards per play, it’s the worst rushing defense that Cal has faced, which should help their offense tremendously.

Alabama -6 4.4% play / Tua to win Heisman +375 2% play

I wanted to get this bet out there before the line moves too much.  We are already seeing sharp action on Alabama and I completely agree with it.

LSU nearly lost two games at home to Auburn and Florida or at least they both were in that game.  Florida has a TD lead in the third quarter in that game while Auburn played toe to toe.  Alabama is a better version of both of those teams.  Florida was missing two defensive ends and their defense is weaker than Auburn's and it showed with the explosive plays they gave up to LSU.  Auburn's offense was inconsistent, while Florida was able to move the ball consistently in the air on LSU's defense.

Alabama is the most balanced team LSU has faced, and they have to do it on the road where they have not looked good all season.  They gave up 38 points to Vanderbilt, 38 points to Texas in a neutral site, and   Alabama's defense also got a wake up call having to play without Tua in their last game they absolutely played their best game.  Alabama's offense is better than LSU.  As good as LSU's receivers are, Alabama's are better.  You also give NIck Saban two weeks to prepare and a #2 ranking behind LSU #1, and Saban is going to have his team fully motivated to make a big statement.  This is a team that is playing with a chip on their shoulder after losing in the National Championship game. 

I throw in Tua as the Heisman, because it makes a lot of sense that if they win this game he is probably the favorite.  Alabama will also need a big game from him to win anyway, and there is tremendous value unless they trip up at Auburn.

Louisville +7 3.3% play - A few +7's have hit in the last hour, and I don't think they'll last. I still like this at +6 or better.

Miami has to be full of themselves right now, and this is a sell high situation after they come off two huge road wins, but they have not done well following the Florida State game.  Just 1-5 ATS the last 6 years, with an average margin of loss of 13.6 points ATS. Miami has lost 4 of those games outright as favorites and have gone 0-2 ATS if they are facing a team off a bye which they are here.  Louisville has two impressive wins on their resume against Virginia and Wake Forest both teams who have been ranked at different times this year. They’re off a bye and Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield is 9-1 off the bye in his career, and has to prepare for a one dimensional Miami offense that ranks 116th in rushing yards per carry. 

Louisville wants to run the ball and they have been effective doing it ranked 57th in the country and have gone up against a very challenging schedule facing defenses ranking 42nd in YPP defense.  Miami’s defense, which ranks 11th has not faced a top 50 offense all year. Louisville ranks 45th in YPP against an average 42nd ranked defense. Louisville has faced 4 TOP 50 run defenses and have run on all of them averaging 209.5 yards per rush.  That includes Clemson who they ran for 156 on. Since the start of last year Miami is just 2-8 when they allow over 140 yards rushing, and the win this year was by 4 against Pitt in misleading fashion. Miami’s run defense has holes. They gave up 176 yards to Pitt who is a pass first team ranking 107th in rushing ypc.  They gave up 200 to Georgia Tech who is in rebuilding mode and ranks 84th in rushing, and gave up 153 to Virginia Tech who ranks 111th in rushing ypc.

Miami has struggled on third downs due in part to their struggling offensive line that ranks 125th in power success, 123rd in protecting the QB, and they have only converted on 25%.  Well, Louisville ranks 11th in power success rate and while they don’t get to the QB, they are only allowing 35% third down conversions against a schedule that averages 41.36% holding opponents below their season average is impressive.  Miami needs explosive plays in this game to win, and Louisville knows this coming off a bye have had time to prepare for Miami in a key game for Louisville under their new coach if they are going to go to a bowl game. Louisville also has a major advantage in special teams ranking 49th in the country to Miami’s 120th ranking.

Virginia Tech +2 2.2% play

72% of the tickets coming in on Wake Forest as they just continue to win games, but I think these two teams are pretty even across the board.  Wake has benefitted by playing all but two games at home, and have been fortunate with TO’s so there has been some luck involved for sure. Virginia Tech has to be playing with a ton of confidence after losing by 1 at Notre Dame.  They didn’t even care about that game really as they could have played their QB Hendon Hooker who has 8 TD and 0 INT, but they let Quincy Patterson play who has been able to run the ball quite a bit. Actually both QB’s have been able to run the ball, and I think that’s a huge advantage going into this Wake game. Wake going on the road for just the 2nd team against a P5 opponent, they won at BC despite -93 yards.  I think Virginia Tech can really get the running game going here, and that’s the biggest keya s they are a run first team 60% of their plays are running plays and they go up against run defense that has been inconsistent and is without their best LB and signal caller Justin Strnad. It didn’t show up last week as they got a big lead on NC State who turned the ball over twice in the first half, but NC State when they did run, and they aren’t a run first team averaged 4.46ypc.  Louisville a team with a running QB ran for 225 and 3 TD’s.

Wake Forest has Clemson on deck, they are now ranked and have to be feeling really good after beating Florida State, and NC State at home, but they largely benefited from +5 TO margin.  I mentioned Hooker not really turning the ball over for Virginia Tech, and I think that continues on Saturday which should put them in a good spot to beat Wake Forest. Wake Forest offensively good struggle here playing a team with a good run defense, and pass rush.  Wake Forest actually only had 4.75 yards per play vs. NC State but they were able to run 88 plays. I think on the road Virginia Tech can control this game. Wake Forest was -93 yards at BC, but BC turned the ball over 3 times and still Wake only won by 3 points. I think we see a similar game, and if Virginia Tech can not turn the ball over I think they run for 200+ and win this game in shocking fashion when you consider Wake is going to get the majority of the $$ and the line is moving the other way.

Western Michigan -6.5 2.2% play

Ball State's offense leans on the run, but they are averaging 2.4 ypc less on the road.  They have run the ball well in their last two games at home against Toledo and Ohio, but those two teams rank 123rd and 124th in stopping the run.  Western Michigan is not great but they rank 92nd against a very challenging opponent schedule an average 62nd rushing ypc.  Their run defense is better than they're getting credit for and it shows up in their other numbers.  They allow just 51% red zone TD %, and that # is 40% at home.  Ball STate has a decent passing attack, but they can't protect the QB ranking 96th in the nation in sack % allowed.  They have faced 3 TOP 50 pass rushing units, and they have lost those 3 games by 10, 13, and 11 points.  Western Michigan ranks 29th at getting after the QB and they have that ranking against a very good opponent sack % allowed so I think Western Michigan if they can stop the run, they can get to the QB, which is key, because the biggest weakness for Western Michigan's defense is the secondary, but if Ball State who is bad at protecting the QB doesn't have time to throw it won't matter. 

Western MIchigan's offense is dictated by their running backs.  They rank 8th in ypc, and they are even more dynamic at home.  They rank 15th in explosive rushing plays, and while Ball State's defense has been good their strength is against the pass.  Their run defense has not faced anyone.  They faced a good Ohio rushing attack that ranks top 50, and gave up 316 yards rushing at home in a 13 point loss.  Ball State also not playing particularly well in the red zone allowing 2/3 of opponent opportunities to result in a TD.  I think Western Michigan can score some points early, and continue to lean on the rushing attack to keep a 7+ point lead here at home in a big game.  Western Michigan's home field advantage has been great 5-0 SU and ATS.  Ball State has been great on the road, but I think with this line we are getting value on the favorite.  Ball State has really relied heavily on TO margin, and Western Michigan does not turn the ball over ranking in the TOP 25 in TO margin.  Western Michigan keeps doing what they do at home. 

BYU +145 3% play 

BYU has lost the last two meeting with Utah State.  Last year in a down year against an 11-2 Utah State team, and the year before they lost their QB in the game with a 21-7 lead as Utah State forced 7 turnovers.  It’s not like BYU doesn’t have more talent they do, on average ranking 30 spots ahead of their in state rival over the last 4 years. BYU has a far better resume and tougher strength of schedule having faced Tennessee, USC, Washington, Boise, and Utah, and they were able to pull off 3 upsets.  Utah State just doesn’t seem as much of a daunting task, and this is a huge game for BYU who is off a bye.

BYU and their coaching staff really can’t afford to lose another game to an in-state team, and I don’t think they will. Utah State has been carried by their defense, but they are vulnerable against the pass, which is the strength of BYU’s offense which is getting back Jaren Hall at QB for this game.  I think it’s a big advantage to be off a bye facing a team that just played the triple option. That should help BYU get the running game going as well.

Utah State’s offense was very explosive last year and they just aren’t this year ranking 104th in 10+ yard plays, while BYU is #4 in the nation allowing 20+ yard plays.  Jordan Love and this passing offense have the 106th ranked QB rating, and they have not faced a crazy schedule of pass defense with an average QB Rating defense of 69.5. Utah State is not getting explosive plays, and they are horrible in the red zone.  24 trips, and only 8 TD’s, that’s 33.3%, and the defense which is the strength of the team is allowing 74% TD when opponents get in the red zone. BYU is not great in the red zone either at 40% 10 in 25 attempts, but again they have had defenses on their schedule named Boise, Utah, Washington.  Their defense has been okay holding opponents to 64% TD’s. The best part is BYU has only lost 8 turnovers this season while Utah STate has lost 13. So I don’t think we will see another game in this match-up where BYU turns it over 7 times. In fact I think they win the turnover battle, and that should allow them to win the game. 

Tennessee -12 2.2% PLAY

With only 3 wins, Tennessee needs this game badly and they won’t be looking past UAB after losing to Georgia State earlier in the year.  They are also paying their best football of the season and should be fully motivated and excited after last week’s win, and this game will be played at night.  I said it last week when we took them at home +4.5 against South Carolina as we saw some signs in their game against Alabama where they were about to cut the game to a 1 possession game in the 4th quarter, before fumbling on the goal line and Alabama returning it the other way for a massive 14 point swing.  That confidence showed up last week as they dominated South Carolina, and I see no reason why they shouldn’t beat UAB team that continues to over perform.

UAB 5-2 ATS this season, 10-4 ATS last year, and 8-4-1 ATS the year before.  UAB lost both games ATS the last two seasons against P5 opponents Texas A&M losing by 21, and Florida losing by 29, and I see a similar result here.  They lost 35 seniors from last year’s team, and teams that win 18 games ATS in a two year span just don’t continue covering games like this. UAB has benefited from a very easy schedule.  The opponent offenses faced in their 7 games have an average yards per play ranked 121st. I don’t think I have seen something like that before. So, UAB’s defense has really been able to dominate, but this is obviously a step up when you look at Tennessee’s talent, they’ve ranked 17th, 16th, and 5th the last 3 years while UAB 93rd, 105, and 83rd.  The biggest question for Tennessee has always been coaching and whether or not the players buy in. I think this group of coaches is good, and I think we are just starting to see the players buy and come together. It looks like Brian Mauer will be back at QB which will be a huge addition for Tennessee, but we may see all 3 QB’s play here.

UAB also has not taken care of the football and their offense ranks 93rd running the ball, and if you can’t run, that’s going to be an issue, because Tennessee ranks 23rd in sack %, and the QB for UAB already has thrown 10 interceptions.  Tennessee’s coaching staff has been talking about TO margin all year, and they finally come off a game they don’t turn the ball over. Let’s see if they do it again. Tennessee also a massive edge in special teams where they rank 10th, so we have some hidden yards there.

Northwestern +10.5 3.3% play

Indiana is off back to back road wins, and have gotten to 6 wins and bowl eligibility, but honestly what have they proven to allow them to be a double digit favorite here?  Their last 3 conference games have beena gaisnt Maryland, Nebraska, and Michigan State, and their defense has not played particularly well in any of those games against teams that really have struggled moving the ball this year.  Michigan State put up 40 points and 445 yards on Indiana.  Northwestern gets Hunter Johnson back at QB here, after he took some time away. I don't know if he makes the start, but he definitely gets in the game.  

Northwestern is a team that fights hard and doesn't give up.  Last week they really got off to a slow start which they can't afford to happen again here.  I think the offense has their best day in many weeks, and Pat Fitzgerald has a shot to win this game outright.  He is 6-1 vs. Indiana over his career.  Northwestern has faced one of the country's toughest schedules with Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Michigan State on the schedule.  They had to start a third string QB for 3 of those games, and I think we are getting line value here, because Northwestern's defense has played extremely well.

These two teams have two common opponents Michigan State, and Ohio STate.  Northwestern was -74 yards vs. Michigan State, Indiana was -87.  Northwestern was -281 yards vs. Ohio State, and Indiana -263.  Both teams have been nearly identical in their recruiting, and I just think Indiana has been fortunate with their schedule and when they faced certain teams.  Expecting a close game here regardless. 

Washington +3.5 @-115 5.5% NCAAF POD

Before we even break this game down it is important to know that Washington has consistently out recruited Utah.  Washington has more talent ranking 15th, 21, and 20th in recruiting the last 3 years, while Utah ranked 37th, 50th, and 51st.  Utah plays above their talent rating because of a good home field advantage, and top 10 coaching. Those advantages don’t exist in this game. 

Washington was one of only a few teams in the country that had to open the season with 8 straight games, and now they are off a bye where Chris Peterson is 18-0 in his career during the regular season, 11-7 ATS.  They had a 2 TD lead entering the 4th quarter against Oregon at home. Oregon very similar team to Utah as far as their statistical profile. Both teams rank in the TOP 25 in YPP offense, and defense, with similar strength of schedules.  Washington should have won and covered that game, but I think the 8 straight games wore them out by the 4th quarter. All in all they still held Oregon to 39% rushing success rate, which is above average, and Oregon a better running team than Utah ranking 33rd in YPC against a tougher opponent run defense than Utah, but they are very similar.  I think the extra rest will help Washington here late in the game. It also helps that Utah’s QB Tyler Huntley is not 100%. It’s the reason they took him out of the game in the second half and changed the offensive strategy last week. Washington’s defense also struggled late against the rushing offense of Oregon, but Oregon has an elite offensive line, they rank top in havoc rate allowed, and rank top 50 in power success rate, which showed late in the game.  Utah ranks 100th in power success rate.

Utah’s defense can not be ignored, but they have yet to face a team in the top 50 in both rushing ypc, and QB rating.  They haven’t faced an offensive line this good either. Washington ranks 17th in havoc rate allowed and 34th ins ack % allowed.  Utah’s strength is in their defensive line. They love to create havoc, but they have not been sacking the QB ranking 77th that’s worse than Oregon’s rankings.  Give Jacob Eason time, and he’s going to find his receivers. I also think he’s going to get his Sr. WR Aaron Fuller back here, although he’s listed as questionable still he has practiced this week.  Washington also has the balance with their running game, which features Salvon Ahmed, averaging over 6 yards per carry. The last two times Utah visited Washington they were not able to stop the run allowing 177 yards and 199 yards, and that’s without the threat of the pass that Jacob Eason brings.

Special Teams is another category that can not be ignored.  Typically Utah is among the best in the nation, but that’s just not the case this year. They rank 96th in special teams this year, while Washington ranks 2nd.  A lot of hidden yardage here, and the kicking game for Washington has been perfect while Utah kickers are just 7-11 and the punting has averaged less than 40 yards per punt.  Washington also has the edge i n TO margin ranking 19th, compared to Utah’s 25th ranking, but last year in their two matchups they turned the ball over 6 times. Washington has had the advantage in TO margin in the majority of their meetings, and I feel like they will have it again in this one. 

Kansas +6 3.3% PLAY

Kansas State is coming off a massive upset over Oklahoma, and now there is talks of them getting to the Big 12 Championship game.  This team is a fraud being out gained in all of their last 5 games, but yet they have found a way to win 3 of them. Kansas is off a big win over Texas Tech and they are playing like a totally different team since Brent Dearman was named the OC following the Oklahoma game.  Dearmon coached under Guz Malzahn and is a highly touted offensive mind and he’s leading this balanced Kansas offense. Kansas offense that ranks 23rd in the country in yards per play. They can run and pass, with a balanced attack, and that’s bad news for Kansas State who ranks 118th in the country against the run. 

Kansas has been taking care of the ball after turning the ball over 8 times in their first 4 games they have just 1 TO in their last 4.  That is a team I want to back at home. For as bad as Kansas defense has played, Kansas State is not much better, and Kansas offense is better statistically than Kansas State.  Kansas has not won this game in 10 years, but they have been getting closer each of the last 3 years lowing by 15, 10, and then just 4 points a year ago. I think they win this time as the magic under OC Brent Dearmon continues, and Carter Stanley throws for over 300 yards for the third time in his career against Kansas State.

NC State +7.5 4.4% play / NC State +250 1% bonus

Both teams off a bye, and both of these head coaches are admired by many, but lets take a look at how they have done head to head dating back to their MAC days.  Dave Doeren the NC State coach is 3-2 against Dave Clawson, with the two losses coming in 2017, and 2018, so I'm sure this team is fully motivated to change that here in 2019.  Before that Dave Doeren beat Wake Forest in 2015 & 2016 by 18, and 17 points, and both of those situations he was off a bye.  He also has a win by the score of 45-14 when at Northern Illinois.  Dave Clawson's wins were 30-24, and 27-23, and he will ahve to win by more here.  In the 30-24 win, Wake was a 3 point favorite, but were lucky to win as NC Sate outgained them by 168 yards, and last year NC State led 23-13 in the 4th quarter before losing the game and were only outgained by 14 yards.  Dave Doeren 7-3 straight up and 8-2 ATS off a bye at NC State including 3-0 ATS as a dog and 2-0 ATS vs. Wake Forest.  Dave Clawson is 0-5 at Wake Forest off a bye 1-4 straight up and his losses have come by -14 points per game ATS, while Doeren has won by 10.8 points ATS.  Doeren's 3 losses came to 2 National Champions.  Clemson last year, and Florida State in 2013, and an 11 win Notre Dame team in 2017.  It's clear to me that Doeren is the better coach.

Talent wise, NC State just brought in two of their best recruiting classes ranking 24th, and 31 the last two years compare that with Wake who ranks 53rd, and 64.  NC State is making a switch to a 4* QB in Devin LEary who came into the Boston College game and threw 249 ayrds 3 TD's.  Wake Forest can be had in the passing game as they rank 104th in opposing QB rating, and struggle to get pressure ranking 66th in sack %.  They also lost their top defensive player for the season in LB Justin Strnad who was their leading tackler.  That should hur them in their run defense.

NC State is a very good defense ranking 35th in yards per play allowed.  To me they really have only had 1 off game, and that was against Boston College who ran wild on them, before that they were only allowing 67 yards rushing a game. I think NC State gets back to that here, and Wake Forest will face a pass rush for the first time.  They rank 9th in protectino, but the average opponent sack % they have faced is 83.  NC State ranks 24th, and Wake is just geting Jamie Newman back which I expect some rust if he does start.  I just don't see Wake Forest getting margin here, and I think we could see NC STate who needs this game more pulling the outright upset.  This would not shock me at all, as Wake Forest has been living on the edge a few times to teams they were favored over this season.  

Georgia Southern +14.5 2.2% play 

I think we have value here with Georgia Southern, as 68% of the tickets are on App State, but there are a couple situations to consider.  First of all the total has crashed due to the fact that we are looking at rain, and 20mph sustained winds, with gusts of 50mph for tonights game.  The temperatures are going to drop and we may even see some snow.  The value on this many points really is worth taking when you consider that both teams will be leaning heavily on the run game.  They already lean heavy on the run, with App State 62% of runs, and Georgia Southern 81%.

Georgia Southern upset App State last year, and they have not been having a great year, but 2 of their 3 losses, are two undefeated Power 5 teams in Minnesota and LSU, and they lost by only 3 at Minnesota.  Georgia Southern has gotten better on defense compared to last year, and their biggest strength comes in run defense, something they are going to be defending a lot in this game.  They rank 28th in rushing ypc, and held both MInnesota and LSU in check.  Minnesota just 1.94 ypc on 48 carries, and LSU just 3.7ypc on 33 carries.  App State's rushing offense ranks 11th, but that has come against an average opponent run defense ranking 85.8.  They are typically helped by their QB, and that is the weakness of this Georgia Southern defense, but how much can they take advantage of that here tonight given the conditions?

App State's run defense ranks 44th, but they were 21st last year, against similar strength of schedule.  NOw they have played better of late, but they gave up 277 yards in this game last year.  QB Shai Werts ran for 129 yards last year in this game.  Werts has missed 2 games this year, which has made GEorgia Southern's statistical profile worse than it seems.  Thus giving us value.  The Georgia Southern rushing attack has really gotten going the last 4 games rushing for over 300 in 3 of them, and that has come with wins.  In last year's game explosive runs helped them win the game, and I think they can have more success since they run the triple option here tonight.  They rank 9th in explosive runs, and are going up against App State's defense that ranks 50th in explosive runs allowed.  App State also has an explosive rushing offense, but again I think they have that level of success due to the fact that they are balanced on offense, and I don't know if they can be here tonight.  App State rnaks 29th in explosive runs, but Georgia Southern inside the top 20 ranking 16th in explosive runs allowed.

This is a huge rivalry game, and the conditions favor the under and naturally the dog.  I like the dog here, and they have for hte most part taken care of the football.  Ranked in the top 50 in TO margin.  Expect a very tight game. 

Under 50 3.3% play 

Tennnessee +4.5 2.2% play

I honestly don't agree with the line move here, but I'll take the extra value as I look at these two teams and see two very similar teams.  The defenses are nearly identical when we look at the offenses faced.  Tennessee ranks 65th, but getting better against an average opponent offense ranking 44.8, compared to South Carolina's 59th ranking against an average opponent ranking 45.8.  They have nearly identical rush defenses against nearly identical opponent rushing offenses.  While Tennessee is a little worse in opposing QB rating defense, they make up for it with their 14th ranked sack %, and playing at home should make it an even battle.

Now Tennessee is starting another freshman QB in JT Shrout it sounds like, but Jarret Guarantano is still available.  It sounds like turnovers are mostly the conerning part for this team and that's the reason for the move.  I see both teams trying to establish the run here, leading to quicker game, and the points more valuable for the home team. 

76% of the money is on South Carolina and I am fine being on the flip side here as I think Tennessee could win this game outright.  How much does South Carolina have left?  Back to back games against Top 10 teams, and now back on the road for the second time in 3 weeks. 

East Carolina +110 3% play

Both of these teams come into the game 3-4 fighting for their bowl life, but I think East Carolina is a team on the rise and South Florida is a team trending in the opposite direction as they are just 3-10 in their last 13 games.  Their win against BYU at home was very fluky, and BYU was in a rough travel spot with a backup QB. South Florida here is traveling for the 3rd time in 4 weeks, against a team that plays a physical brand of football. 

ECU needs to establish the run to win, and everyone has run on South Florida this season with the exception of Uconn and SC STate, because South Florida got out to a huge lead.  I think ECU can have some success and they should have plenty of confidence in the passing game after a 300 yard effort last week. I think ECU figured some things out in their bye week putting up 28 points on a very good Central Florida team that was also off a bye week.  Take away the sacks, and they had over 200 yards rushing in the game. East Carolina has a major advantage ranking 41st in power success offensive line going up against a South Florida team that ranks 110th in power success defensive line, while also ranking among the worst teams in the nation in third down defense allowing 47.25% conversions.  Expect ECU to be able to score some points in this one. 

South Florida’s offense is actually worse than ECU from a yards per play perspective ranking 108th, and they’ve done it against worse competition than ECU.  South Florida down to its 2nd QB, McCloud and he’s banged up, but should probably go. I don’t know if he gets through the game as South Florida ranks 128th in the nation at protecting their QB.  ECU coming on strong led by Kendall Futrell who has 7 sacks in the last 3 games. This ECU squad is a veteran led DL up front and rank 19th in power success rate. Both teams have had turnover issues, but ECU just 1 turnover, and is +3 TO margin in 3 home games while South Florida has turned it over 9 times in 4 road games. ECU wins outright.

Michigan State +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD +190 1% Bonus

This is a dreadful spot for Penn State off two physical games against Iowa and Michigan where their defense saw 153 plays, now they go on the road for the 2nd time in 3 weeks to face a Michigan State team that has their number and is off a bye.  They bye could have come at a better time for Michigan State in my opinion after they were in the season’s worst scheduling spot. Name a team that had a tougher back to back road stretch than Michigan State having to face Ohio State, and Wisconsin on the road.  They lost both SU & ATS, and there is no harm in that.  

Penn State should have lost at IOwa they were outgained on the day, Michigan should have taken them to over time, and Michigan out gained them 417 to 283.  Yet Penn State won both. I think their luck runs out here, and if you compare Michigan State with Iowa. On paper you’d think they are the same team, but Michigan State actually has the better defense against the tougher schedule.  Michigan State ranks 18th in YPP allowed, and Iowa ranks 19th, but Iowa has not faced offenses with an average opponent YPP ranking 75th, compared to Michigan State’s 57.42. The run defenses which are the key to stopping Penn State right now with an inexperienced QB in Clifford still making his way.  Iowa ranked 22nd, and they gave up 170 to Penn State at home, and many on third and short as Penn State went 10-19 on third down. Iowa ranked 127th in power success rate defense. Michigan State is flat out better at stopping the run ranking 25th, but have faced two of the best running teams in Wisconsin and Ohio State already.  Michigan State ranks 22nd in power success rate defensive line, and they are only allowing 38% conversions on third down which is great when you consider their opponents average 44.23%. Michigan State actually matches up better than Iowa, because they should stop Penn State on third down and if they are in passing situations Michigan State has a pass rush, ranking 24th in sack % compared to Iowa who only ranked 94th.  Penn State does have issues protecting the QB ranking 78th in sack % allowed, and that’s why they have chosen to lean on the running game. If it’s third and short or third and long Michigan State’s defense has the edge.  

How about Michigan State’s offense, well they have faced some of the top defenses in the nation an average 37th ranked ypp defense, and have gone 0-3 against top 40 units.  However, Penn State’s defense can be beat. We saw Michigan move the ball on them, and we saw Iowa move the ball on them, both have veteran QB’s just like Michigan State in Brian Lewerke.  Lewerke has had great success against Penn State the last two years he threw for 659 yards 4 TD’s and 2 INT’s. He’s having a better year this year and it’s not amazing, but he’s taking care of the ball 11 TD’s to just 3 INT’s, which was another reason Iowa lost that game. 

Michigan State has the nation’s best punter in Jake Hartbarger who is averaging over 46 yards per punt.  This will be a huge advantage making a Penn State offense that is nothing special march extra yardage to score points.  I think Michigan State will have a good game plan coming off the bye, and their offense will look a bit better than it did in their last two games.  

Texas -1 3.3% play 

This may be the squarest play I make all year.  Yes, I know Texas defense is banged up, but I think we are getting value in this number based on Texas game last week against Kansas as they escaped at home against Kansas 50-48.  Texas always struggles the week after Oklahoma and this is giving us a cheap price.  If Texas can just find a way to get through this game, and into their bye they are going to be in good shape.  The defense has struggled, but when you have LSU & Oklahoma on your schedule your defensive statistical profile is not going to be great.  Kansas offense is much better than people give it credit for They rank 31st in yards per play, which is 32 spots better than TCU.  They also have a balanced offense ranking 11th in rushing yards per carry, and 41st passing the ball.  The threat of both is what gives Texas defense trouble.  TCU really does not have that, and despite all the playmakers they still can not figure it out at QB ranking 84th in QB rating.

Offensively Texas is arguably the best unit that TCU has faced as far as talent.  TCU's defense is not as good as it has been in years past.  TCU faced two elite passing attacks, SMU and Iowa State and they gave up 40+ points in both games while losing both games.  This is a desperate TCU team, but Texas is not going to let them win, and in a tight game who are you going to trust Sam Ehlinger or Max Duggan?  When Texas offense has had trouble this year it was against Oklahoma where they got behind the sticks as Ehlinger was sacked 9 times in the game, but TCU's defense although they rank 35th in YPP allowed struggled in pass defense and getting to the QB.  That happens when you lose 3 guys on the defensive line who are now playing in the NFL and were replaced by freshman.  The DE have just 1.5 sacks on the season they rank 72nd in sack %, 58th in QB Rating allowed. 

Texas is like the new Oklahoma.  The defense has been bad, but the offense makes up for it all unless they face an offense that is actually better than theirs.  There are not many offenses that are.  LSU and Oklahoma checked those boxes, but TCU doesn't come close.  Years ago I would have loved to take the defensive team in this one, but value on Texas who is essentially a dog, and we all know how HC Tom Herman has done as a dog.  Texas has a huge advantage in special teams ranking 26th having faced a better opponent average special teams, while TCU ranks 76th.  TO margin also in favor of Texas ranking 24th, compared to TCU 107TH.  Don't be surprised if their defense plays agressive to force those 2 or 3 turnovers to win this game.   That's exactly what kept them in the game against Oklahoma.  Lastly, we are giving Texas shit for giving up points to Kansas, a team ranked in the top 40 in YPP, and Texas had 2 TO's, and missed on two 4th and 2's that set Kansas up with good field position.  TCU struggled with just 17 points against a Kansas State team that has not been able to stop the run ranking 124th.  In fact Texas is actually better at stopping the run than Kansas State.  If TCU will have to score in the 40's to win this game, and I don't think they can do it. 

Auburn +10.5 2.2% play 

If Florida was +10.5 here a few weeks ago I would bet them again.  LSU right now is just getting too much love in the media, I saw an article where 55 of 55 people picked LSU to win by double digits!!  Auburn has just as much talent, and they have blown double digit leads the last two years in this game, actually led 20-0 last time they were here.  LSU just last year was a 10 point under dog in this game, and now they ar a 10 point favorite?

Biggest question is whether or not Bo Nix can have a good game for Auburn, because they are going to have a hard time running the ball. I think he can, and I think he's only going to get better as the season goes along.  Don't be surprised if you see Malzahn have him throw a lot of short passes early to get his confidence up, and that falls right into the weakness of LSU's pass defnse.  I also expect a trick play or two that could change this game completely to allow Auburn to win. I don't think this freight train continues for LSU.  Against Florida they were fortunate to play Florida the week after Auburn, and Florida was missing several key defenders.  Auburn is pretty healthy here, and just a reminder.  What has Joe Burrow done against top pass defenses? He played 6 games vs. top pass defenses, and 4 of them were at home last year.  His completion % in those game 45%, 44%, 55% , 50% 57%, 51%, 1 TD and 4 INT’s. So far this year he's played an average opponent QB Rating defense of 85.5

Rice +9.5 3.3% PLAY 

Rice has had a very challenging schedule as they have faced 3 Power 5 schools and 3 of their 4 non-p5 games have been on the road.  They finally get back home where they have played well. This is a team that only lost by 3 to Louisiana Tech, and 8 to Baylor, those teams are 13-1 combined.  In comes Southern Miss as a 9.5 point favorite, and I just think it’s far too many points, when you factor in how slow Rice plays, and Southern Miss defense ranks 127th in yards per play allowed, which for me means Rice should be able to move the ball and pick up some first downs.  I don’t like to look at common opponents too much but worth noting is the fact that Rice was +58 yards vs. La Tech and Southern Miss was -39 yards. Southern Miss got off to a 14-0 lead over La Tech with a 100 yard return by their leading RB who might be out for this game, but after that they were outscored 45-16!  It was a disappointing loss, and they have UAB on deck.  

Rice should have beaten UTSA last week, but a pick six really did them in in their 31-27 loss, but 27 points was the most amount of points this team put up and it came against a team ranked 118th in yards per play allowed, which is similar to Southern Miss defense.  Turnover issues have plagued both of these teams as they both rank outside the top 100, but Southern Miss has been worse ranking 114th. Southern Miss turnover issues have also come on the road where they have given the ball up 9 times in 4 games. Rice has 8 turnovers on the road, but they are home here where they have turned the ball over just 3 times in 3 games against some very good defenses - Baylor #25 in YPP allowed, and 12th in TO margin, LA Tech 47th in YPP allowed, and 68th in TO margin, and Wake Forest #83 YPP allowed, and 13th in TO margin.  I think Rice can win the turnover margin, keep the # of possessions in the game, and possibly pull the upset for their first win.

Army -10 2.2% play

I think Army gets back to basics this week, as they face a San Jose team off a tough physical game against San Diego State, and they have to fly across the country to play at 9am body clock time.  I think Army getting back home going against a team that ranks 102nd in stuff rate, has just a 12.7% havoc rate, and ranks 101st in power success rate on their defensive line. Army has a major advantage in the trenches in this game ranking Top 30 in both offensive and defensive power success, and they are going up against a team outside the top 100 in both.

Air Force who runs the same offense dominated San Jose State earlier in the year rushing for 382 yards 5TD’s on their way to a 41-24 win.  This spot is better for ARmy, and that game was more of a blowout than the final indicated. Army won this game 52-3 last year, and I expect another double digit victory for a team that has to be frustrated with how they have played the last 3 weeks.  San Jose State is one of the worst in third down defense giving up 50% conversions, and that’s bad news going up against Army, who should control this game when you factor in San Jose STate throws the ball 65% of the time and only converts 35% of their third downs.  Army is actually not bad on defense, and better than Air Force ranking 42nd in yards per play, and 62nd vs. the pass. Expect some three and outs, and Army will control this game and make San Jose State extremely predictable which will lead to some turnovers.

Northwestern +10 3.3% play & +348 1% play

Iowa will be held under 100 yards rushing in this one, and this will be a one possession game, just like they have the last 3 years.  Northwestern stole 2 of those games as a +10 and +11 underdog winning outright. Iowa has not been able to get the running game going in conference play, and Northwestern is very solid in gap control, and rank 11th in the country in power success defensive line, which is better than Purdue who held them to 102 yards on the road.  Now Iowa on the road, and they have had a tough schedule with Michigan, Penn State, and then Purdue, meanwhile Northwestern with the extra day to prepare after getting blown out to Ohio State on national TV. I think the 10 points are a gift, as this game will come down to Iowa passing the ball, and they have been very poor at doing so.  Nathan Stanley continues to turn the ball over, and Northwestern is only giving up 180 yards per game through the air, and Iowa has struggled in the red zone on the year, and they are without their #2 WR Brandon Smith who had 9 receptions and over 100 yards receiving last week. Iowa also has been banged up on the offensive line and shuffling guys all over the place, which has been the reason they have had issues protecting the QB.  Iowa’s offense has scored 20+ points in 4 games, and all 4 of those opponent defense ranked on average 92nd, with none of them being in the top 75.  

Northwestern could have some offensive success in this game.  They are certainly due, and have played a tough schedule of opponents defenses.  Outside of UNLV, where they scored 34 points, they have played 5 teams ranked in the top 70 in defensive line power success rate, and 4 of those were top 40.  They have faced three top 20 overall yards per play defensive teams, and 3 top 25 run defenses. Here they face another with Iowa ranking 19th, but it’s come against weak competition with an average opponent ranking of 75th in YPP offense.  Iowa also 22nd vs. the run but they have not faced a team that can run the ball 89th in opponent average ypc, and Penn State ran for 177 yards, and just kept picking up first downs. Iowa ranks 127th in power success rate defense, and they rank 94th ins ack %.  Those are the two areas that give me concern and have me thinking that maybe Northwestern could score a couple of TD’s, which will be all they need to cover the spread, and maybe pull the upset. Northwestern struggled turning the ball over in their home games against Michigan State and Ohio State, but those two teams bring the havoc 19.9%, and 24.5% havoc rate.  Iowa just 14.1% havoc rate on the season. Also, Northwestern the fresher team here they had a bye before the Ohio State game and an extra day of rest, and they ran for 157 yards against Ohio State, a team that ranks 5th in rushing defense. Truly think Northwestern can move the ball here, and come up with some turnovers to win the game outright.

Houston +14 3.3% play 

This line is inflated in my opinion due to the way Houston played traveling all the way up to Uconn playing in the cold.  They rested some guys and treated as a bye for this week's game, which is much more important.  While, SMU took care of a hot Temple team that upset Memphis the week prior, but Temple has been a terrible road team.  This is an interesting match-up between two similar coaches that were on the Texas Tech staff that used to recruit these areas that they now coach at. Holgorsen @ Houston, and Dykes up near Dallas with SMU.  This game is a very big deal to Houston when you consider the recruiting aspect.  I know everyone wants to say Houston has quit on the season, but that's just not the fact.  Houston is still playing hard, and if there is a game they are going to show up for it's this gamea gainst an in state rival.

I think all the pressure is on SMU ranked #16 in the AP poll with a huge game on deck against Memphis that a lot of writers are talkinga bout being the ABC game next week with a potential College Game Day appearance.  These players could be peaking ahead to that game.  This is also the exact opposite situation a slast year.  Houston was ranked #17, traveling to play SMU a team with a few losses, and they pulled the upset.  The home team has won the last 4 matchups, and I expect Houston to be in this game throughout.  Houston gets their QB back for this game in Clayton Tune, which should be a big deal.  Houston's average recruiting over the last 4 years is 15 spots higher than SMU ranking #61.5 in the country on average compared to SMU 76.75 so overall more talent on the Houston side and even with players sitting out, this does not deserve to be a 17 point difference on a neutral field on talent alone.

So if my handicap is right.  The talent is similar, the coaching is similar, the motivation for Houston should be at its highest, and the pressure should all be on SMU, then we are getting tremendous value.  I want to look at the matchup as well and when I do I see that both offenses are relatively the same from a yards per play perspective against similar average defenses.  Houston @ 33 against an average defense ranking 67, and SMU 37 against an opponent average 60.  Defensively Houston has been bad, but they have faced a far different schedule with an average opponent offense ranking 45th compared to SMu who has faced an average opponent offense ranking 86.5 in yards per play.  SMU's opponent YPP differentiation is -0.4, compared to Houston's which is +0.8.

Both teams ironically are run first teams, and that's going to be the key of the game.  Houston 8th in rushing yards per carry, SMU is 65th, and the big question is can SMU stop Houston's running game which would be required to blow them out.  Eventhough they rank 26th in run defense it's come against an average opponent rushing offense ranking 82nd.  North Texas and TCU both inside the top 50 in rushing offense ran for 200+ yards, which I think Houston will be able to do here.  SMU ranks 85th in 20+ yard rushes, which is not a good matchup considering they haven't played many good running teams.  They gave up over 150 yards to a Tulsa team that ranks 124th in yards per carry.  SMU will definitely get theirs in the passing game, but again, all the pressure int he world is on this SMU team.  Houston also has a huge advantage in special teams ranking 10th in the country against an opponent special team srnaking 54th compared to SMU ranking 93rd, against an opponent rank of 97.  Special teams could win Houston this game otherwise I expect a back and forth battle. 

Air Force -3 -115 3.3% play 

Air Force is the more balanced team, while Hawaii is off a devastating loss to Boise last week.  I think Air Force will be better than most at traveling to the Islands to play a game late.  Air Force ranks 87th vs. the pass which is a concern, but they have faced a very tough scheudle an average opponent QB rating 38.2, and i was very impressed with how this team shut out Fresno in the second half.  Hawaii ranks 128th in TO margin as well. 

Air Force goes up against Hawaii's 107th run defense here, and don't be surprised if Air Force throws a couple of passing TD's as well.  They are fully capable of pulling that off.  Air Force also has turned the ball over a ton, but they have a 17% fumble recovery rate which has been more unlucky than anything.  Air Force will control the pace and mood of this game, and come out with a win by a TD or more. 

Florida State +1.5 4.4% 

This is just the second time in the last 27 meetings that Florida State is an under dog to Wake Forest.  The obvious reason is the talent gap and nothing has changed the Wake Forest program has averaged a national recruiting ranked #62 over the last 3 years compared to Florida State’s #10 ranking.  The biggest question mark I have for Florida State is their coaching staff. Can they take advantage of Wake Forest’s obvious weaknesses and shut this offense down?

For Florida State, their 3 losses came against top defenses in Boise STate ranking 42nd in yards per play defense against an average Opp ranking 68th (similar to Wake’s opponent ranking), Clemson #5, and Virginia #10.  Florida State’s offense should be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air as Wake ranks 97th in yards per play allowed, and that’s against an average offense ranking 65th, which is very similar to Boise strength of schedule, but Wake ranks far worse.  FSU was able to score in the 30’s on a good Boise team.  

Now Wake Forest offense has looked great, but a deeper look and we see they haven’t played a defense with a pulse.  They have played just 1 team in the top 100 in pass defense, which was North Carolina, a defense that has similar stats to Florida State, but still FSU’s numbers are bette, and more balanced.  Wake only managed 24 points in that game, and that was with a healthy Jamie Newman who rushed for 78 yards and 2 TD’s. I like Sam Hartman a lot and I think he’s an NFL QB someday, but he’s not mobile like Newman.  The average opponent pass defense for Wake Forest is 96.2. 

At the end of the day FSU has faced a tougher schedule with an opponent average YPP differentiation of +.73, and they have earned a +0.1 YPP differential.  Their defense has been getting better despite what last week’s performance against a determined Clemson team might tell you. Wake Forest’s average opponent YPP differential is -0.4, which means they have been playing bad opponents, and they haven’t even managed a positive YPP differential yet they are 6-1.  We faded Wake Forest last week, and I’m doing it again here.

Washington +3 3.3% play 

Oregon won this game last year by 3 at home in OT as 3.5 point dogs, and now they are 3 point favorites on the road, which is telling you they would be 9.5 point favorites at home?  I just don't see it personally.  The defense ranks #3 in the country , but they haven't faced a single offense ranked in the top 50, as their average opponent ranks 83.6 in yards per play.  Washington ranks 33rd, and is a balanced offense ranking 33rd in ypc, and 40th in QB Rating.  Of the 10 opponent units that Oregon has faced they have only faced 1 in the top 50, and that was Auburn's 24th ranked rushing attack.  Oregon was outgained in teh game by 51 yards and -.36 yards per play.  I know Washington had to replace a ton of experience from last year, but they too lost to Auburn a year ago, but they were +.95 YPP in that game.

The talent and recruiting over the last 3 years has been nearly identical, and Washington owns one of the best home field advantages in the country.  I think the loss of their top receiving target Jacob Breeland is going to be huge, and they have had struggles in the red zone.  Some of Washington's defensive struggles are not real in my opinion.  They really let USC run on them until they got down into the red zone where they forced turnovers.  I could see the same thing happening here.  Washington's offense on the flip side should find success on the ground, and Chris Petersen is very familiar with the DC Andy Avalus at Oregon who played under him when he was at Boise, and was also a LB coach. 

New Mexico +19 2.2% Play 

Sustained winds of 20mph with gusts of 35 mph in this game dropping the total from 54 to 49, and the spread has not dropped at all, which is giving us more value on the Lobos here.  I also think they match-up well if they can avoid turning the ball over, and the weather also benefits them more than Wyoming. We are also getting an inflated price here based off the last two meetings 31-3, and 42-3 for Wyoming, but Wyoming has won some misleading games this year, and have a ton of issues right now. 

Their safeties coach is suspended for DUI.  Their 2 best run blockers Abojei, and Velzasquez may not play.  Abojei is definitely out and it sounds like Velzasquez probably won’t play.  They are also without 2 of their top 3 running backs. This is all happening toa  team that runs teh ball 68.9 % of the time, and completes less than 40% of their passes playing in a game with windy conditions.

Meanwhile New Mexico comes into this game and they too are not completing above 50% of their passes, but they are actually better at running the ball ranking 26th in yards per carry compared to Wyoming’s 86th ranking.  Now some of that is due to strength of schedule as New Mexico has faced an average run defense ranking 100.6, while Wyoming has faced 72.4, but that evens out with the fact that Wyoming is dealing with all those injuries.  New Mexico is actually decent at defending the run ranking 41st going up against a 78.6 average YPC offense compared with WYoming’s stout run defense ranking 7th, but that has come against a 103.4 average opponent rushing ypc offense.  New Mexico is also better at explosive runs ranking 25th compared to wyoming #75, and on defense, both teams are about the same. New Mexico has given up just 19 runs of 10+ yards compared to Wyoming who has given up 22.  

Wyoming is being outgained by 50ypg, and they trailed by double digits in 4 games three of which they came back and won.  I don’t really understand this spread, and the injuries and weather only benefit our side more. New Mexico also has an extra day to prepare for this game.

Syracuse +4 2.2% play 

Do you want to bet on a team that blew a 23 point lead, and committed 15 penalties in their last road game. I have been high on Pitt all year, and have profited with them as they have gone 4-2 ATS, and now off a bye it's time to sell high on this team that is still growing in their new offense.  They go up against a Syracuse team who has a very good home field advantage, and they have an extra day to prepare for this game.

61% of the money is on Pitt in this game, and I've heard almost everyone in the media calling for Pitt to win big, and many are pointing out Syracuse's offensive line which has played poorly.  I can't argue with that, and going up against Pitt's defensive line which has a ton of sacks, and among the leaders in havoc rate.  However, Syracuse's defensive line also has some elite players, and I think their defense is getting disrespected here being a 4 point home dog I think there is a ton of value for a defense that is under rated.  Syracuse has given up some big point totals this year, against Maryland, Clemson, Western Michigan and all 3 of those offenses have something in common.  They can run the hell out of the ball ranking 7th, 10th, and 17th in yards per carry.  Pitt is not that type of offense under Mark Whipple.  They rank 112th in ypc offense, the other 3 teams Syracuse faced scored 3, 0, and 16 points.  NC State's offense is very close to what Pitt offers, and Syracuse very impressively held them to 16 points on the road last week.  I can see another defensive struggle as Pitt gets into third and longs, and Syracuse also can bring havoc witha  20.4% havoc rate that typically only gets better at home.

Syracuse's offense has to step up in this game, and to be honest they can only look better.  Looking at Syracuse's offense they are almost identical to Duke's offense that came back against Pitt.  Syracuse actually has a far better QB Rating which is where you need to attack this PItt defense.  The fact that Duke had 6 TO's in the game and only lost by 3 has to say something about this Pitt team.  You may expect a better performance from Narduzzi and Pitt out of the bye?  Well over the last 3 years they have gone just 1-2, and for a defensive minded coach you'd think the defense would play better off the bye, but they gave up 45, 34, and 39 points in those situations.  IT's clear this defense was clicking until the 2nd half of the Duke game, and then they went into the bye for me at the wrong time.

Syracuse also has advantages in special teams ranking 30th in the nation compared to Pitt's 105th ranking.  This should play a huge factor in tonight's game.  I often feel the special teams advantage's only increase when you are at home.  At the end of the day I don't think much separates Duke and Syracuse and Pitt and NC State, which are both these last two team opponents.  Both games were inside a posession and I see the sme thing happening here.

Marshall +5 3.3% play 

This is a buy low spot on a team that is 1-5 ATS in Marshall, but is typically one of the better ATS teams going up against an overrated Florida Atlantic team that is 4-2 ATS.  Doc Holliday is a great coach at Marshall. He is 7-2 ATS the last 3 years as a road dog, and he always takes these games with the Florida schools seriously, because he does a lot of recruiting in the state.  Marshall is 12-3 since 2013 vs. the Florida schools or games played in the sunshine state including 3-0 in bowl games. Marshall has a lot of Florida players as well, and I think they have a good shot at pulling the upset.

When we look at these two teams I really can’t figure out why this is not FAU -3.  Marshall’s offense and defense is better. Their blended YPP differential vs. opponent YPP differential is about a half yard better at -0.48 compared to FAU’s -0.9.  They both have played and lost to two TOP25 teams. I think this line is inflated because right away people are going to look at the most recent results and see that Marshall lost against Middle Tennessee on the road and FAU beat them at home.  Marshall had a misleading loss they were actually +1.02 YPP in that game +177 total yards, but were -4 TO. FAU was outgained against Middle Tennessee by 95 yards on their home turf and were -1.34 YPP. That’s a difference of 2.36 yards per play, and FAU is getting credit in the market when they shouldn’t be.  76% of the money on FAU here tonight, and I could not disagree more.

For Marshall to be successful they need to establish the run, and they rank 18th in YPC going up against a defense ranking 97th at stopping the run.  FAU’s defensive #’s look better than they actually are. This is a poor defense ranking 109th in YPP defense giving up 27 and 31 points to lesser teams like Charlotte and Ball State.  Marshall has the ingredients to win as a dog on the road. They hung right with Boise despite not playing their best game, and that was a much more difficult trip. Marshall has an experienced line and rank 18th at protecting their QB, and have only allowed a 7.89 % havoc rate.  They have been poor in TO margin, while FAU has been very good, but I think that’s largely due to the fact that Marshall has been unlucky recovering just 33% of fumbles, and FAU has recovered 71% of their fumbles.

ARkansas State +6 3.3% play 

Florida +13 3.3% PLAY / Florida +420 1% PLAY

I really don’t understand the line here, I understand it is tough to get back up for a game after you beat Auburn at home, but there is no talent gap between these two teams.  In fact Florida has out recruited LSU in 2 of the last 3 years with an average rank of 7.6 compared to LSU 11.6, so why is this spread so high? Night game in Death Valley? LSU just 16-16 ATS their last 32 night games here.  LSU Coaching? This is the same staff that lost 27-19 on the road to Florida as favorites last year. Dan Mullen also beat LSU 37-7 in 2017 at Miss State as 7.5 point dogs, so we know the coaching is better on the Florida side.  In 2016 when LSU beat Miss State ED O hadn’t taken over yet, but even still they only won by 3 points as 13 point favorites. Florida was +1 in this game at home last year, is LSU suddenly 6-7 points better than this team. I don’t think so.  The spread in this game should be 6 or 7 maybe 8 for the situation. The big reason is the hype of this LSU offense, and Joe Burrow, but let’s slow down a bit. 

LSU has faced an average defense ranking 89th in ypp, they have faced an average opponent sack rate ranking 101st, and an average pass defense ranking 88.5.  Florida ranks 18th, 11th, and 11th in those categories. What has Joe Burrow done against top pass defenses? He played 6 games vs. top pass defenses, and 4 of them were at home last year.  His completion % in those game 45%, 44%, 55% , 50% 57%, 51%, 1 TD and 4 INT’s. LSU’s receivers are elite this year, but guess what Terrace Marshall is doubtful, which is a huge loss. You make it much easier to defend 2 WR’s than 3.  Florida’s defense that allowed just 5.6 yards /attempt and 0 TD’s and 2 INT’s last year can put this Burrow Hesiman madness to rest on Saturday night. LSU just 43rd in sack % allowed and that’s against an average opponent sack % ranking of 101.25.  Florida 11th in sack %, 22.2% havoc rate, and #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers.

LSU has not shown an ability to run the ball like they have in the past, and their run defense has not been good in short yardage.  Don’t be surprised to see some packages for Florida’s freshman QB Emory Jones who is a real threat to run the ball. Kyle Trask’s banged up knee is not something I’m worried about, and if he’s having issues Emory Jones showed he’s every bit capable to come in and lead the offense, and to be honest he’s probably a better QB anyway.  The only time LSU faced an offense this year was Texas, and they really struggled. They were lucky to win that game I thought, as Texas dropped a wide open TD which LSU took over on downs, and scored a TD, which ended up being a huge momentum shift in the game with a 14 point swing. Florida also has the edge on special teams ranking 7th in efficiency to LSU’s 26th ranking.

Utah -14 2.2% play

I like the Utes here off a bye that was much needed, and fading Oregon State off their first win in the PAC 12 in quite some time. I liked what I’ve seen from Oregon State, but the defense is still a major question mark.  The last time they went up against a team that was balanced on offense like Utah they gave up 52 points. Utah I would argue has just as good of a RB in Zach Moss as Oklahoma State, who is probable for this game, and Tyler Huntley is much more experienced than the freshman Oklahoma State is starting.  Utah’s defense is also significantly better than Oklahoma State that is outside the top 50 in run defense and pass defense. Utah will be able to stop Oregon State’s rushing offense as they rank 10th in ypc allowed. Oregon State has not faced any good defenses this year so the offense has looked great, but that’s about to change.  

The average opponent run defense that Oregon State has faced ranks 99th.  Utah should be able to force Oregon State into third and long, and that will be an issue as they have struggled to convert.  Utah also great at taking care of the ball, ranking 5th in TO margin, and I think they have something to prove to the nation, and will look to have an explosive offensive performance.  Utah really has yet to play a complete game, and this would be a good time to do so.

Iowa +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Stock for Penn State probably could not be higher right now after the last two weeks, and Iowa after their performance against Michigan could not be lower, but I watched that game, and they just had a bad game.  Stanley threw 3 interceptions, and the offensive line played poorly, but they still had chances to win at the end of the game. Iowa was the better team than Michigan. Stanley is a veteran QB, that has only thrown 2 or more INT’s twice in a game and I don’t see him making those mistakes back at home where he has a 34 TD to 8 INT’s over his career.  Penn State has shown some red flags this season which are buried. Against Buffalo, a physical team in the trenches, much like Iowa they were -106 yards rushing and were trailing at the half at home and being outgained. Against Pitt at home they were -150 yards passing. I could totally see Nathan Stanley having a great game here on Saturday night. 

Penn State really hasn’t proven anything?  Yeah they rank #3 in total defense and that’s what is carrying them right now as they lack a dominant RB, and they have an inexperienced QB.  However, Penn STate has faced an average ypp offense ranking 93.5, and opponent average ypc offense ranking 82.75, and an opponent average QB rating ranking 93.25.  Iowa is easily the most balanced attack that Penn State’s defense has seen. Penn State has faced Iowa State, and Michigan on the road so far. I just don’t know if I can trust Penn State with an inexperienced QB on the road against an Iowa defense that doesn’t give up explosive plays.  They rank 2nd in the nation in 20+ yard plays allowed, and that’s what Penn State relies on in their offense right now. I just expect this to be a fight through 4 quarters with Iowa leading most of the way. Since 2000, Iowa is 14-6-2 ATS as a home dog, and they are 25-15-2 ATS following a SU loss in the last 10 years.  Iowa actually outgained Penn State on the road last year in their 6 point loss. 

Louisville +7 4.4% play 

I think Louisville might be able to win this game outright.  I don't like to look at common opponents as a key indicator, but it's worth noting.  Louisville +101 yards vs. Boston College, and Wake Forest -93 yards.  This is an extremely inflated number in my opinion base don the fact taht Wake Forest is 6-0 and ranked 17th in the country, but Louisville has faced the far tougher schedule.  Louisville's defensive staff also is familiar with Wake Forests offense as they played Wake in 2017 while at App State.  App State lost 20-19 but missed an extra point and two field goals.  Both teams come into this game with a zero yards per play differential.  The big difference however ist he fact that Louisville's opponent YPP differential is +0.7 while Wake Forests is -0.6 for a difference of 1.3 yards per play.

Louisville's offense is actually better statistically than Wake Forest with more balance, and they have faced a significantly tougher schedule in terms of defenses faced.  Louisville's 29th ranking in YPP against an average opponent YPP 45.75 compared to Wake Forest's 48th YPP O against an average 82nd defense.  This is the best offense that Wake Forest has faced season to date, and the most balanced.  North CArolina and Boston College blended rushing offense / passing offense vs. opponent defense blended  is 52.5 vs. (60.5), and 45th vs. (79) compared with Louisville who comes into the game with a #36 blended offensive average up against defense ranking (44.5 blended).  So they've been the better offense and have faced a tougher defense.  I think Louisville can have a big day, and I like Cunningham here at QB for Louisville.  He adds something extra to this offense, and he has passed the ball well completing 65% of his passes 5 TD's and 1 INT for a 190 QB Rating playing just as good against BC's pass defense as Newman from Wake Forest.  Of course he can run the ball too and that's been a problem for Wake in the past.  Last year they faced two QB's that could run in Ian Book, and Eric Dungey.  They gave up 162 yards rushing in those two games to the QB on 34 carries and gave up 56 and 41 points in both games that were losses.

Wake is off a bye here and you have to mention it but Wake is 0-6 under Dave Clawson off a bye.  They've lost to good teams and average teams.  The last 5 years they have lost by 21, 14, 8, 21, and 23 points out of a bye.  I think Wake is fortunate to be undefeated at this point in the season and Louisville seems to be turning the corner.  

Michigan State +10.5 2.2% play Mich St +10.5 / Under 40.5 1% parly @ +265

Michigan State and the under is clearly correlated in my opinion, and with 16mph winds with gusts of 34mph, I expect both teams to lean on the running game, and both teams to struggle in the red zone.

This feels like a game Michigan State would win.  The only thing keeping me off making this a larger play, and a play on the money line is the fact that this is Michigan State’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks.  Michigan State has a balanced defense and they have faced the tougher schedule by far. The two have a common opponent in Northwestern, and Michigan State was +74 yards on the road while Wisconsin struggled at home -9 yards.

I think this line is inflated for a few different reasons.  The idea that Jack Coan is a superior QB, because of his stat line, and completion %, but he did not look good at all vs. Northwestern.  Wisconsin’s offensive line does have vulnerability in pass protection and they are going up against a Michigan State team that can get to the QB Ranking 36th in sack % and have a 20.7% havoc rate.  Also, Michigan State gave up 300+ yards rushing to Ohio State last week, but that was against Ohio State on the road at night, against a superior QB, that not only has a great arm, but can run the ball.  

Wisconsin’s defense is ranked #1, but I would question that a little bit as they have faced an average offense ranking 95.2 in ypp offense.  Michigan State’s offense actually has not been that bad ranking 64th, which is good when you consider they have faced an average defense ranking 43.5 in ypp allowed.  Michigan State is getting completely disrespected here, and the one thing most people won’t talk about is the hidden yardage on special teams. Wisconsin ranked 101st last year in special teams efficiency, and this year they rank 115th.  Michigan State ranks around 49th, but they have an excellent punter in Jake Hartbarger who is averaging 47.63 yards per punt. Major advantage in special teams for Michigan State.

Michigan State +10.5 2.2% play Mich St +10.5 / Under 40.5 1% parly @ +265

Michigan State and the under is clearly correlated in my opinion, and with 16mph winds with gusts of 34mph, I expect both teams to lean on the running game, and both teams to struggle in the red zone.

This feels like a game Michigan State would win.  The only thing keeping me off making this a larger play, and a play on the money line is the fact that this is Michigan State’s 3rd road game in 4 weeks.  Michigan State has a balanced defense and they have faced the tougher schedule by far. The two have a common opponent in Northwestern, and Michigan State was +74 yards on the road while Wisconsin struggled at home -9 yards.

I think this line is inflated for a few different reasons.  The idea that Jack Coan is a superior QB, because of his stat line, and completion %, but he did not look good at all vs. Northwestern.  Wisconsin’s offensive line does have vulnerability in pass protection and they are going up against a Michigan State team that can get to the QB Ranking 36th in sack % and have a 20.7% havoc rate.  Also, Michigan State gave up 300+ yards rushing to Ohio State last week, but that was against Ohio State on the road at night, against a superior QB, that not only has a great arm, but can run the ball.  

Wisconsin’s defense is ranked #1, but I would question that a little bit as they have faced an average offense ranking 95.2 in ypp offense.  Michigan State’s offense actually has not been that bad ranking 64th, which is good when you consider they have faced an average defense ranking 43.5 in ypp allowed.  Michigan State is getting completely disrespected here, and the one thing most people won’t talk about is the hidden yardage on special teams. Wisconsin ranked 101st last year in special teams efficiency, and this year they rank 115th.  Michigan State ranks around 49th, but they have an excellent punter in Jake Hartbarger who is averaging 47.63 yards per punt. Major advantage in special teams for Michigan State.

Tennessee +7 2.2% PLAY

Miss State is off a bye and has LSU on deck, but that’s factored into the line here.  Miss State did not play well off a bye last year putting up just 3 points at LSU. They also lost their bowl game.  Tennessee meanwhile played better than the final indicated alst week, and they moved to a new QB who gave this offense a spark.  I see no reason why Tennessee can’t win this game outright, as they have more talent. The last 3 years Tennessee has averaged a 12.6 recruiting class compared to Miss State’s 25.6.  I can’t say that Miss State’s Joe Morehead is a better coach than Jeremy Pruitt. I think both coaches are pretty similar, and both teams are pretty similar. The one difference to me is strength of schedule as Tennessee just got done facing Georgia, and Florida two teams that are better than anyone on Miss State’s schedule.

Miss State is -0.2 YPP differential compared to Tennessee’s -0.7, but their opponent differentials vary as Miss State’s opponents are +.22, but Tennessee’s are +.875.  I think we are still getting value with Tennessee from their early season loss against Georgia State. This team led 13-10 at Georgia last week, and I think they match-up well here in this one, and don’t forget Tennessee won at Auburn last year and beat a Kentucky team at home that was a 10 win team.

Tennessee’s run defense has been the strength of the team.  They rank 63rd, but have gone against a tough schedule opponent rank of 58th.  Georgia has been the only team that has been able to run extremely well. Miss State needs to run the ball to win as they run 60% of the time and feature a running QB.  While they rank 28th, they have gone against a very weak opponent run defense ranking 85.4. Tennessee also I think can get the running game going in this one, which is a big key for them, especially with a young QB.  Miss State ranks 89th in defending the run, and have given up over 4 yards per carry in every single game. This is supposed to be a down year for Miss State, I think these teams are pretty even and we are getting 7 points at home.

Miami -135 3% play

More value on the money line with a total sitting at 42.  The talent gap here can't be argued.  Virginia's recruiting classes the last 3 years 36, 58, 54, compared to Miami 27, 11, 15.  Miami coming off a bad loss to Virginia Tech giving us value while Virginia is off a bye.  Virginia was off a bye last year, and Miami was off a huge upset win over Florida State, and they lost the game on the road by just 3, but htey outgained Virginia by 118 yards in that game and forced Perkins into 3 INT.  Miami will start Perry at QB here, who was benched in this game last year, and I think he really matured by being able to watch this team from the sideline. Perry came in and looked great a week ago passing for 422 yards 4 TD's nearly bringing his team back from 28-0.

Miami fought, and that's the biggest thing you want to see from a talented team.  They fought after getting down 28-0 to a desparate Virginia Tech team.  Now Miami is the desparate team, and Manny Diaz has spent a ton of time with the defense this week after they were unable to force a turnover for the first time since unveiling the turnover chain.  They were -5 TO Margin last week, but I think that changes this week.  For all the talk about Miami's offensive line, Virginia's offensive line has been no better ranking 113th in sack % allowed.  They rank 122nd in rushing yards per carry, and Perkins has struggled.  

Virginia is a public dog, and the line has moved the other way and I think it's justified. I think we see Miami come out with their best game of the year tonight, they foce some turnovers which has been an issue for Virginia 108th in TO margin, and they get the win.

Syracuse +4.5 2.2% play 

Syracuse and NC State are really similar coming off a season where they both lost their veteran QB.  I think NC State lost a bit more on offense having lost their offensive coordinator and have struggled offensively this season just as Syracuse has struggled.  I think the line move from 3 to 1.5 is giving us some value here, and I think people still can't get that Maryland game out of their mind which again should be giving us value here and moving forward.  Syracuse has also faced a tougher schedule.  Yeah they have struggled to stop the run, but their opponent average ypc is ranked 35.75.  I think Syracuse will sell out to stop the run here, and force NC State into passing situations where their QB will make mistakes especially with the shuffling of the offensive line.  NC State is missing their Senior RT Justin Witt and they are starting a true freshmen in his place, but moving him to the LT and moving the LT to the right side to protect the blind side of a lefty throwing QB.

Syracuse's offensive line has struggled as well, but they have gone against tough competition, opponent average sack rate ranking 48th, and opponent havoc rate 17.55%, and theve had to do it with 3 new offensive line starters.  They come off a bye, which is a good spot for Syracuse, and I think Dino Babers has expressed he wants to pick the tempo up, and I think they do that here tonight which will help the offensive line vs. a very good defensive front from NC State.  NC State's defense ranks 28th in YPP allowed, but they have faced an average opponent ranking 92.25.  The opponent YPP differentiation for both of these teams is extremely different.  Syracuse has faced an opponent average +0.7, and NC State -0.48.  What's concerning is NC State's defense which is getting a lot of credit here gave up 31 and 44 points to Florida State and West Virginia already.

Turnovers and special teams will be a big key in this game, and I feel Syracuse has the edge in that regard as well.  Theyr ank 29th in TO margin compared to NC State's 67th ranking, and Syracuse faced a tougher schedule in that regard.  Syracuse has the top punter in the country with a big leg who will make NC State's offensive troubles continue here.  Syracuse returned their PK who went 30-34 last year, which is key when you are taking a spread of +4.5.

App State +120 2.5% play 

This is a repeat of last year's Sun Belt Championship tha App State won 30-19, and I just don't think Lafayette is ready to get over the hump here.  Both teams have played well on the road against similar Power 5 schools.  App State won on the road at UNC, while Lafayette lost by 10 with extra time to prepare to open the season at Miss State.  That Miss State loss only looks worse to me as they have not looked nearly as good.  Both teams have had extra time to prepare here as they last played on 9/28, and that favors App State, who is making the road trip here.  They were 17.5 point favorites in last year's conference championship game, but Lafayette's hot start, and 5-0 ATS record is driving the inflated # in my opinion. 

Both teams like to run the ball first close to 60% of the time, and both have had great success ranking in the top 15 in rushing ypc, against similar opponent defenses.  Lafayette, however is a bit more volatile in my opinion as they really rely heavily on their explosive runs, while App State traditionally hasn't given up many explosive plays.  I think App State's run defense is a bit better ranking 87th, vs. Lafayette's 93rd ranking, the big difference is App State has gone against an average rushing offense ranking 44.6 in YPC compared to Lafayette's 70.75 opponent average.  Lafayette also ranks 130th in stuff rate, so if App State needs to get the first down I think they can in this game.  They also have the better QB and more balance with Zachary Smith, the reigning Sun Belt player of the year.  App State seems to have the better play in the trenches as they have an average havoc rate of 17% compared to Lafayette's 14.2%, and their havoc rate allowed 9.3 vs. lafayette 7.5 against tougher competition is also impressive.

Something being overlooked in this game is TO margin, as App State ranks 10th compared to Lafayette's 78th ranking.  They were -2 in TO margin in the title game last year.  Lafayette also managed just 1 TD in 5 red zone trips.  That will be the story again here, despite App State's defense not playing well to start the season.  Special teams is another issue here for Lafayette as their kicker Steve Artigue has not made a field goal over 30 yards this season.  You may expect Lafayette to go for it more on 4th down, but they are just 3-7 on 4th down this year, add in App State's havoc rate on defense and I feel like they will force a key turnover on downs as well.  App State is 4-4 on 4th down and we already mentioned Lafayette's poor stuff rate this season.

Pitt +5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Duke off a huge win over Virginia Tech as a dog on national TV last Friday, and Pitt just got by Delaware 17-14, but that was expected after beating UCF the week before, benching their starting QB, and half of their starters to get healthy for this game.  Pitt has faced a tougher schedule by far with 3 quality opponents compared to Duke’s 1 quality opponent. I think these offenses are about even, but Pitt is stronger defensively ranking 32nd in YPP allowed against an average offense ranking 45th, compared to Duke’s 57th ranking, and 69th opponent average offense.  Duke’s defense weakness is Pitt’s offensive strength, and Duke’s offensive strength is Pitt’s defensive strength.

Pitt has owned the series and Narduzzi has owned Cutcliffe.  Pitt is a different style team this year, and it actually lines up better in the matchups for them.  Duke’s weakness and inexperience is in the secondary. They really have not been tested, but Pitt features a new offense led by OC Mark Whipple, and the top passing duo in FBS with Maruice French and Taysir Mack.  I honestly think Pitt can be more balanced here than Duke can. Quentin Harris has been great, but he can’t stretch the field, and against top defenses like Pitt who can stop the run, and stop the pass Duke tends to struggle to put up points.  Harris is Duke’s offense he leads the team in rushing yards, and attempts, and they go up against the 25th ranked rushing defense, and a defense that is second in the country with 24 sacks, and has a 23.5% havoc rate. Duke also starts two red shirt freshman at the tackle position, and they’ve played well so far protecting the QB, but on average they have faced #81.6 sack % defense, and Pitt ranks 4th. 

Navy +3.5 2.2% play

Air Force has gotten 71% of the bets so far, and the line has moved 1.5 points giving us value on the home dog here.  I really don’t understand the move. Air Force has been a team I have backed and have been disappointed in as they really have struggled turning the ball over, and I really don’t anticipate it to stop here, as they are 123rd in TO margin.  Air Force is also in a brutal scheduling spot playing their 5th overall game, and 4th game in 21 days, 3 of which are on the road, and here they have to travel over 1600 miles to face a Navy team with an extra day of rest.

Navy QB Malcom Perry is now probably for this game, and Air Force’s QB Donald Hammond has been banged up each of the last two games.  The stat that surprised me the most was Navy ranking 23.2% in havoc rate comparing that with Air Force has a 12.9% havoc rate. I think that’s critical to defending the option, and Navy has a 25% third down conversion defense compared to Air Force giving up 48%.  The 3.5 points are valuable with a low total of 45, and the Under has gone 31-8 over the last 13 years when service academies face off against each other.

Florida +2.5 3.3% play

I was waiting for a 3, and you may be able to continue to wait, as it's -115, to take Auburn -2.5, but the books seem very hesitant to push this to 3 despite having 64% of the money on Auburn, and you can actually take Florida at +102 odds at Pinnacle, one of the sharper books out there. I think Florida pulls the upset.

Auburn comes into this game 5-0 ATS, and 71% of tickets are on Auburn.  This gives us line value as many are talking about how impressive they have been against a tough schedule.  I would question that because Texas A&M almost lost to Arkansas last week, a team that lost at home to San Jose State.  Miss State is down this year as well so that beat down last week was not surprising, and Auburn got lucky beating Oregon, a team that just barely got by Stanford a week ago 21-6, a Stanford team that got blown out by multiple teams already this season.  The stats back it up, as Florida has actually faced tougher defenses on average 51 ypp, compared to Auburn’s 66.4, and their offensive YPP ranks 21st, to Auburn’s 35th. The QB play for Florida has been better and I like Trask’s ability and decision making I think he’s an upgrade over Feleipe Franks.

The biggest story in this game supposedly is Florida’s offensive line which is breaking in 4 new starters against this talented Auburn defensive line, but I would argue, and have to think Florida’s defensive line feels disrespected here.  They get to go up against a freshman QB at home, they sport the nation’s #2 sack %, and have a 25% havoc rate, and Bo Nix really hasn’t been scary throwing the ball to date. The key for Florida is going to be stopping the Auburn’s running game, and they have yet to allow a 100 yard game with the exception of the road game at Kentucky.  Here they’re home, and getting some defensive starters back. Auburn just 3-13 when they are held under 130 yards rushing, and while they rank 18th in YPC average run defense they have faced ranks 80.2, and here they face the 22nd ranked run defense. To go along with that is the 23rd ranked passing defense, and they can leave their corners on an island against this Auburn offense while committing extra bodies to the run.

Dan Mullen has had great success against Auburn in his career.  Going 2-2 straight up, and 3-1 ATS, as all 4 meetings when he was at Miss State he was an underdog.  The two times he beat Malzahn he was less than a FG Dog like he is in this game. At the end of the day I think the strength of schedule that Auburn has faced has been blown out of proportion.  Auburn went 1-3 on the road last year, and the last 3 years when they are facing a defense that can stop the run/pass they are 0-7, losing by a margin of 14 points per game, while averaging just 12.5 points per game. Night game here, and Florida is being disrespected as a small dog I think they force Nix into some costly mistakes and hold up against the run and find a way to win this game.

Connecticut +11 2.2% play 

Uconn is improving under the radar while USF is continuing to get worse under Charlie Strong.  This was a 30-38 loss for Uconn last year on the road as Uconn had 322 yars rushing in the game.  I don't understand this line as the stats and opponent stats are nearly identical in this matchup, but we get Uconn at home hungry for a conference win, playing in 47 degree weather something that South Florida is not used to at all.  This game was moved up from a 7pm start due to a Mosquito situation impacting the state, but I think that really benefits the home team in this situation. 

So let's look at the stats.  Uconn 117th in yards per play, but have gone up against an average defense ranking 46.33, compare that with South Florida who ranks 127th in yards per play having gone up against a slightly toughter average opponent defense ranking 33.33.  Both teams rank 128th and 126 running the ball having gone up against similar run defenses, South Florida has faced 52nd average defnese compared to Uconn 54th.  Being at home helps the rushing offense, and Uconn wants to establish the run.  Uconn gets to go up against the 93rd ranked run defense should help them move the ball in this one.  The X-factor in this one is Uconn moving on from a grad transfer to the RS Freshman QB Steven Karjewski who had 3 TD's ad 273 yards passing a week ago.  I think tha tshould help them in this gme, as they will have a chance to win this game outright

Army +3 -125 3.75 % play

Both teams are off a bye, but Tulane has not played in 16 days, which is not a great situation to be in this early in the season.  They are also traveling all the way up to New York to play and the temperatures will be in the 40’s which is cold for the Louisiana boys.  Jeff Monken is one of the most underrated head coaches still, and has Army sitting at 3-1, and is also off a bye here. The last 2 years with extra time to prepare Army has been dominant going 6-0 outscoring opponents 36-12.5 on average in those games.  They know how to defend the run, which Tulane boasts a heavy does of, and they have been able to get to the QB with a 13th ranked sack %. How many times can you say that about a service academy?

Tulane has struggled in these matchups as they only beat Navy 29-28 last year, and Navy lost to Army 21-0.  In 2017 they beat Army at home as a 3 point favorites 21-17, but Army was -3 turnovers, and they gave up two big runs against Tulane with a 75 yard run and 72 yard run in the first half.  Army’s defense just doesn’t give up big plays anymore. Last year they ranked #12 in big running plays allowed, and this year they have only allowed 10 runs of 10+ yards while Tulane has allowed 21 10+ yard runs.  I just don’t understand why there is a 6 point swing between these two teams, and I get I’m backing a popular dog this week, but Army is just not your traditional team, and they have the better coach, and play so well at home.  I think being a dog here they will have a chip on their shoulders, and this is just Tulane’s 7th game in 13 years as a road favorite.

Michigan -180 3% play 

Cincinnati +4 3.3% play 

I like the Bearcats here at home and I definitely think if you like the Bearcats it’s correlated with the Under 63, but I’m not going there tonight.  I think this is a completely different game than last year. First of all Cinci got behind early 21-6 at the half and had to lean on a freshman QB in Ridder, and he just didn’t play well.  Cinci actually ran the ball well in that game going for 252 yards, and UCF run defense is not as good this year. So far they rank 56th vs. the run compared to 103rd ypc average offense faced.  Last year they ranked 43rd, vs. 62nd ypc average offense faced. UCF passing attack also not as good in my opinion. Dillon Gabriel has looked the part and came out of the same high school as McKenzie Milton, but he’s still a freshman, and in a game against a similar defense to Cincinnati he was sacked 6x and threw 2 interceptions.

How similar is Cinci and Pitt’s defenses?  Well Cincinnati ranks 32nd vs. the run, and Pitt ranks 25th, both against similar competition (65 vs. 65.5 on average opponent ypc offense).  Cinci’s pass defense ranks 24th in QB Rating allowed compared to Pitt’s 36th, and Pitt has faced better passing teams. Pitt ranks 4th ins ack %, and Cinci ranks 26th, both against equal competition (Cinci has faced opponent average sack % allowed of 83.75 to Pitt’s 84th).  UCF is 79th in sack % allowed, and 102nd in sack % so they are not playing as well in the trenches compared with last year. Now UCF got down big at Pitt, but Pitt is not a running team anymore, and couldn’t put UCF away. Pitt’s offensive strength is passing the ball, and they tried to go away from that, and it nearly backfired on them.  I think Cincinnati can grind out drives if they get an early lead which is what I am expecting.

Cinci also got hit with explosive plays last year, and that’s what UCF is all about and nothing has changed in that regard.  However, Cinci ranks 13th in 10+ yard plays allowed, and in less games last year they allowed double the # of 20+ yard plays on the road vs. home, which is where they are this year compared to last year playing at UCF.  Ridder at QB for Cinci also looks like he has gotten better, and he had a 185 QB rating at home last year compared to 116 on the road as a freshman, which is not surprising at all when you factor in he faced Temple and UCF on the road.  This year he’s playing better he just put up 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s against a solid Marshall program that ranked 36th vs. the pass, and gave Boise State a big game on the road. This line indicates that Cinci is 6 points worse than last year or UCF is 6 points better, but I would argue Cinci has gotten better, and UCF has gotten a little worse.  I think Nippert Stadium at night on a Friday is an underrated place to play and Cinci will be ready for the upset.

East Carolina +12 2.2% play 

UNLV +9 3.3% Play / UNLV +290 0.5% Play

Wyomin has been one of the most misleading teams this season, and they are facing a UNLV team coming off a bye.  Wyoming is shorthanded this week as 4 players went down in their loss last week at Tulsa.  UNLV QB Armani Rogers is an under rated QB who can beat you with his feat, and I think it adds an added dynamic for Wyoming to stop.  Rogers state, "I was watchign film over the bye week just to understand what I'm going against.  I feel like with them playing man-on-man with our receivers, I believe in our receivers 100 percent.  And they're a very agressive team so I feel like we can take shots."  It won't take much as Wyoming's completing just 38% of their passes, and they're not much better running the ball. 

UNLV has been outgained by 99 yards per game against awful opponents like Texas State, and Idaho.  Wyoming's defense has kept them in games, but it's not as good as last year as they are giving up 120+ yards more than their opponents season average.  Coach Sanchez hinted at coming out throwing the ball to set up the run instead of the opposite, which I think is a good approach against Wyoming as long as you take care of the ball.  UNLV really needs a win if they want to go to a bowl game, and I think with the extra preparation for this game and the ability to look at Wyoming's tendencies they should have a good game plan to be in position to cover the 9 point spread and pull the upset. 

Nebraska +17 3.3% play 

If you want to hang out for a 17.5 I think you may see it pop up at a couple of shops, but if Nebraska is in the game like I think they'll be you won't need it.  The biggest question I have that is not making this a larger play is the fact that Nebraska has not been able to hold onto the ball.  There were 5 fumbles in last week's game against Illinois and Nebraska did not recover a single one.  So right now it's a bit of not taking care of the ball and not having the luck to recover.  So I think this has been a focus all week in their singature game under Scott Frost.  The result against Illinois is also giving us 3 points of value from last week.  Anytime you just barely beat Illinois 42-38 you are going to be disrespected in the market, and people are going to be very hesitant to back you, but that's where we make money.  I saw good things from Nebraska each of the last two weeks.  They actually outgained Illinois 671 to 299 so that final score was misleading and I think gives us value in this number. 

This team has the confidence and believes and are fully capable with Adrian Martinez at QB to pull an upset.  They lost 36-31 and led 21-16 at the half in Columbus just a season ago.

Ohio State has struggled in these road games against programs playing in a crazy atmosphere at night.  They lost at Purdue last year, and at Iowa the year before.  I don't envision Nebraska blowing out Ohio State, but I do think this is a close game and Nebraska is fully capable of a back door at worse case.  Ohio State has struggled with teams who have explosive rushing attacks, and it's probably the weakness of Ohio State's defense.  Right now they rank 3rd in the country in run defense, but the average opponent's rushing attack ranks 102.75.  I really like this spot for Nebraska it's their biggest game in years, and it's at night, and we are getting line value.

Georgia Tech +91.1% Free Play 63-41 ATS L104 Free College PIcks

Georgia Tech lost to Citadel last time out, and usually when an FBS team loses to an FCS team there is line value for weeks.  Citadel really limited possessions in that game, and now Georgia Tech is off a bye, and HC Geoff Collins and his assistants get to go back to where they coached a season ago to face Temple.  Collins recruited all of these guys, and I think it really helps when you have an extra week to prepare against a team you know extremely well.

Georgia Tech’s defense is underrated and I think that is what keeps them in this game.  The secondary has been good, and they’ve been able to get some pressure on the QB. Anthony Russo, the Temple QB really has not been consistent at the position.  He cost them the game against Buffalo, and I still think Temple is getting too much credit following their upset of Maryland a few weeks ago. I expect this to be a tight game with a lot of emotions flying around between Georgia Tech coaches and Temple players.

Baylor +3 2.2% play

These two teams are very similar with two up and coming coaches who play much better in the underdog role.  Baylor was not impressive at Rice last week while Iowa State dominated Louisiana Monroe, and that’s giving us tremendous line value in my opinion.  Baylor under Matt Rhule is actually an amazing 11-3 straight up as a dog by less than a TD, and in this game last year they may have lost 28-14 at Iowa State, but they outgained them 505 yards to 355, as they were only able to score 14 points in 7 trips in the red zone.  So far they have 12 TD’s in 13 trips to the red zone.

Baylor should benefit from the weather that is showing 25-27 mph wind gusts, as they run the ball 58% of the time compared to Iowa State who runs just 45% and is extremely thin at RB.  Baylor out rushed Iowa State last year, and I expect the same here as Charlie Brewer who had 80 yards rushing is still the QB for the Bears. It’s also going to be 97 degrees which also favors Baylor.  Iowa State had two trips to the state of Texas last year and lost both to TCU, and Texas. Iowa State is getting a lot of hype in the early going, but I think these teams are fairly even, but we are getting Baylor a +3 at home.

Washington -10.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

I think Matt Fink and this USC team may have just too much confidence after their win against UTAH last week, which I felt was a bit misleading.  USC backers will disagree with me, but Utah was unfortunate to lose their star RB early, and there were a bunch of 50-50 balls that UTAH just didn't defend.  Honestly, I would be surprised if Fink does not get picked off here several times.  Everyone is calling Matt Fink the best 3rd string QB in the country, but he's actually the 4th string.  Get your facts right!  The 2nd string quit on the team, the third string was Slovis, and Fink was the 4th guy in camp.  After one game we want to call this system pluggable?  Graham Harrel has done a good job so far as OC, but it's about to get a lot tougher, because Washington's defense has owned this style of offense.

I admitted in my write up last week that Utah has had issues with Washington State, but I had felt like BYU had put together a template of how to defeate it, but UTAH seemed to be very stubborn in that game and continued to play man vs. man defense the entire game almost.  They mixed up zone a little  bit, but not nearly enough to make an impact.  Well Washington, and DC Jimmy Lake who was previously the DB coach has done an excellent job in pass defense over the years and have sent many guys to the NFL.  Their last 4 games vs. Washington State, who runs a similar offense they have forced 18 TO'S!  That's not a misprint.  Since 2015 there have been 4 meetings and the average score was Washington 40 and Washington State 14.  Now USC is obvioulsy more talented, but they have a worse coach in Clay Helton, just 3-11 ATS as a dog here, and teams traditionally are auto fade following an upset of a Top 10 team like USC is.

We haven't even spoken about Washington's offense which has been great, and I think we are still getting value on this Washington team from their weird loss to Cal.  Jacob Eason has a better arm than most QB's in the NFL, and he's been accurate too completing 73% of his passes.  This is easily the best raw talented QB that Chris Petersen has had to work with.  USC has a very young secondary that is prone to giving up big plays.  I think Washington rolls here and we are back talking about how Clay Helton will be fired at the end of the year.

Central Michigan +17 3.3% play

This spread is out of whack to me, and I think you see Central Michigan lose 61-0 to Wisconsin, and you see Western Michigan dominate Georgia State 57-10 at home, and it doesn’t seem all that crazy, but I think the Chippewas match up really well in this one.  Western MIchigan could also be without their best offensive player in LeVAnte Bellamy, the RB has averaged 7.21 ypc, but I think Central MIchigan has proven they can stop the run. Central Michigan actually ranks 20th in ypc defense, compared to Western Michigan’s 118th ranking, and they both have faced similar offenses.  In fact Central Michigan held Wisconsin to a season low 199 yards rushing, and a season low 4.63 ypc. They just got done holding Miami to 1.51 yards per carry. When Western Michigan can’t run the ball they are a different team. When Western Michigan is held under 4 yards per carry vs. FBS opponents they are just 3-5 since last year, and the 3 wins were by 3, 1, and 7 points.  I think this can keep CMU in the game, and WMU has not been great on third down this year converting only 40%, and even in their dominating win against Georgia State they were 4-11.

Central Michigan is holding opponents to 37% conversions on third down right now.  This defense also has the 19th ranked sack % so if they can stuff WMU on 1st down, they can also put pressure on Western’s QB Jon Wassink.  CMU’s offense has been awful this year, but look at the defenses they have played, Wisconsin and Miami. The one time they didn’t play a dominating defense they put up 45 points against Akron.  CMU has faced a tougher schedule so far, and we are getting line value because of it. Western Michigan’s run defense ranks 118th, and I think the Chippewas should be able to get their running game going like they did against Akron.  Western Michigan has allowed over 200 yards and over 5 ypc in all of their games, and that’s against an average rushing attack ranked 76th. So they are playing poorly against poor competition in terms of rushing attacks. I think McElwain is an underrated coach, and this team seems to be playing for him.  Chippewas won here two years ago, and I think this game comes down to the 4th quarter.

Air Force -19.5 2.2% play 

Air Force really out played their last two opponents in the box score, and came away 1-1, but they were more impressive than the final scores indicated.  Now they get to play an inferior opponent that lost to Army 52-3 last year.  San Jose State is also off a bad travel spot on a short week, Air Force has an extra day of rest here.  San Jose State also off their biggest upset in program history beating a bad Arkansas team on the road, and benefited from +4 TO's.  Now they have to go on the road in back to back weeks to face an Air Force team on Friday night at altitude.  Not a good spot for San Jose, I can see Air Force's offense going crazy in this game.  The only reason Air Force didn't have a shot to beat Boise last week was they could not convert on 4th down.  Army was 3-3 against San Jose State on 4th down, and 10-16 on third down.  Air Force is much better than a season ago, and we haven't seen their best game yet. 

San Diego State +160 2% play

San Diego State’s defense is elite and is allowing just 8 ppg and 248 yards per game.  I think we are catching value here with the Aztecs because they barely got by Weber State 6-0, and then you see Utah State’s offense that scored 62 points in their last game, but Weber State is top 15 FCS team.  San Diego STate was 6-1 last year before injuries hit the team hard, and they finished 4-4.

Rocky Long is one of the nation’s best coaches, 34-15-1 ATS in conference the last 6 years, and is 5-0-1 ATS As a home dog.  Utah State is getting a lot of Love, because of what their QB Jordan Love has done, and he’s an NFL prospect, but he had 3 interceptions against Wake Forest, he is throwing behind a new offensive line and is going up against San Diego State who is #5 in havoc rate.  San Diego State +5 in TO Margin this season, and they don’t give up big plays ranking 28th in explosive defense. I think they hang in this game, and win the turnover battle and the game.

Pitt + 11 2.2% play 

Pitt covered, and had a chance to tie and win the game against Penn State on the road last week, but they couldn’t get the job done, but they did out gain Penn State, and QB Pickett had another great game under this new offense with Mark Whipple.  Pitt was a 17 point dog on the road, which would make them an 11 point dog at home to Penn State, which is the same line here. There is no way UCF has as much talent as Penn State right now, and I think this line is inflated.  

UCF has been impressive, and they beat a beat up Stanford team last week in impressive fashion.  They beat Pitt last year in impressive fashion at home. However, they had an extra day of rest in that game, and it was their first game against a P5 opponent.  Here they just got done cruising against Stanford and everyone is complimenting how great they are. The true freshman QB Gabriel is the next Tua Tagovailoa. This is Gabriel’s first road start, and he’s facing a good defense in Pitt who ranks 15th in sack % and they haven’t been giving up any explosive plays.  That’s very different than last year when Pitt was 102nd in explosive play defense. They also were a run first team, and here they are much more balance, and the passing game is the strength of the team under new OC Mark Whipple. This Pitt team has weapons, and they have controlled the pace of play in all of their games. Even in their loss to Virginia earlier this year that game was much closer than the final showed. Call me crazy, but I think Pitt can pull the upset here.

Buffalo +14.5 4.4% POD

There is really good value here on Buffalo who lost last week as a road favorite (buy low), and fading Temple who won at home as a home dog (sell high).  At this point we don't know much about Temple, and that game against Maryland (over rated) could have went either way, but they stopped Maryland twice at the goal line, and their QB Anthony Russo threw another pick, but should have thrown two.  This is a sandwhich game for Temple too as they have Georgia Tech on deck.  Georgia Tech's Head Coach was the Temple coach last year.  So while Temple players remember losing to Buffalo last year some might have their eye on Georgia Tech the following week. 

Rod Carey is a fabulous coach, and comes over from Northern Illinois, who beat Buffalo and HC Lance Leipold in the MAC Championship game a year ago by 1 point, and in 2018 they beat Buffalo 14-13.  Buffalo blew a 29-10 lead in the MAC Championship.  

Buffalo is strong in the trenches, and Carey has stated it's the best OL and DL they have faced.  There are questions at QB for Buffalo who is starting a freshman, but I think he plays better here at home, and I think the running game continues to have success.  The OL returns 4 of 5 guys, and this is a group that ran the ball for 183 yards at Penn State, and led at the half before Penn State dominated the second half when they started throwing the ball.  I don't know if Carey trusts Russo to take advantage of Buffalo's weakness in the secondary.  Russo is very turnover prone, and I think he might throw 2 interceptions here today setting up Buffalo to have a shot at the upset. 

Michigan +3.5 3.3% play

This will be a low scoring game, and the extra points are more valuable when you don’t expect a high scoring game.  Plus this was Michigan -6.5 in the game of the year lines, and I don’t really understand the move of 10 full points.  Michigan hasn’t looked good, but they are 2-0, and have everything to play for. I also think the bye benefited them more because they are implementing a new offense, and it obviously hasn’t gone smooth so far with Josh Gattis calling plays, but with the extra time here I think it will help the offense.

At the end of the day there is a clear talent edge on Michigan’s sideline. They average top 10 in recruiting the last 10 years compared to Wisconsin who is averaging 44th.  That doesn’t always mean anything, but I’m sure these guys from Michigan don’t like the fact that they are dogs here, and they have had to hear for 2 weeks how they haven’t beaten a top 10 team, and they struggled and nearly lost to Army in OT.  Oklahoma also almost lost to Army in OT last year before pulling off the win, and they proceeded to beat Baylor the next week by 33 points and go onto the college football playoff.

I was high on Wisconsin coming in and played them in week 1 at South Florida, but this is a crazy line move, and I”m not honestly sold on QB Jack Coan vs. a capable defense.  Coan is getting a ton of credit right now, but I just think Shea Patterson will out play him, and Wisconsin’s secondary is suspect to big plays which Michigan is capable of with the talent they have at WR.  Also, Coan vs. teams with a winning record last year was 35-62 for 291 yards, 2 TD’s and 3 INT, (Northwester, Penn State, and Miami).

Houston +5 2.2% play

First of all Houston was a 7.5 point favorite last year, and won 48-17 despite losing D'eriq King early in that game.  The year before King lost at Tulane despite 141 yards rushing on 10 carries.  I think Houston is focused for this game, the fact that they are looking at 1-3 if they lose is a scary thought, and I think Tulane is getting a bit too much love.  At the end of the day Houston still has better players.  The last 4 year recruiting rankings prove that as Houston's average recruiting over that time is 59.5 in the country compared to Tulane's 91.25 out of 130 teams.

Houston lost quite a bit on the defensive side of the ball, but they return 91% of their offense, and I liked what I saw from King so far this season considering he played two top 20 teams in Washington State and Oklahoma.  I also think it's a tough situation for Tulane on just 5 days rest.  Home favorites on 5 days of rest playing a conference opponent are just 7-16-3 ATS since 1985.  Tulane has benefited thus far from special teams and turnovers, but that was not a strength for this team last year where they ranked 73rd, and 75th.  They have also averaged 9 penalties per game this season, while Houston comes in at 6.  To me this game is going to be all about who can run the ball more efficiently, and my money is on Houston.

Houston has out gained Tulane each of the last two seasons on the ground with King at QB.  I think their are sharps out there who feel this will change, but really Houston's defensive stats are skewed based on their opponents of Oklahoma and Washington State, two top 10 offenses in the country.  Houston was very good against the run the last two games allowing well under 3 yards per carry in each game.  Tulane's run defense has been more impressive, but they had good run defensive stats last year and Houston put up 298 yards.  I understand that Dana Holgorsen is bringing a different offense here, but he has always leaned more on the run in this offense, and so far he's running the ball 60% of hte time.  Houston has also been able to run the ball against every opponent this year with over 200 yards rushing in each game and over 5ypc in each game.  

Florida State +7.5 2.2% play

I think this is a massive line move against Florida State that I just can’t pass up.  Everyone is on Virginia after they popped into the Top 25, and this team in my opinion is being over rated just a bit.  Their offense did not look great in week 1 at PItt, with just 310 yards, and they largely benefited from +2 TO margin. Last week they turned the ball over 4 times against William & Mary.  Maybe, FSU’s head coach Willie Taggart is just that bad, but I know for sure he has the better talent.  

It just seems like Florida State’s biggest issue right now is conditioning, and the weather has not helped them in the first two weeks.  Not to mention the fact that their defense has been on the field for 97 plays per game. The good news is this is a night game in Virginia with the temperature expected to be in the 70’s.  They also face an opponent that does not play an up-tempo offense. Virginia only averaged 67 plays per game a year ago.

FSU also hired JIm Leavitt, a defensive guru as a consultant this week.  He was already at practice Thursday and reviewing film. It’s a short window, but with all the talent FSU has on defense it could be a small fix.  I think the weather, and travel spot will benefit this team.  

Iowa State +108 5% NCAAF POD

I was hoping to see the line that was 2.5 get to 3, but it’s now going back to where the line opened when Iowa State was a 1 point favorite.  I think there is value with Iowa State coming off a near loss to FCS Northern Iowa in week 1 in triple OT, and then getting a bye. For one most people will look to fade a team almost losing to an FCS foe, but Northern Iowa is a very good FCS team.  Iowa has had problems with them in the past, and Iowa lost to North Dakota State back in 2016, another FCS opponent so it’s not that unusual. Also, Iowa State really out played Northern IOwa as they outgained them by 200 yards. Meanwhile Iowa beat Miami Ohio, and Rutgers.  So I don’t really understand what has changed so much that Iowa State would not still be favored. 

College GameDay will be here for the first time ever and that’s a big deal for Iowa fans.  We saw it last year when GameDay made their first trip to Washington State when they hosted Oregon, and Washington State dominated especially early.  That’s not a huge reason why I’m backing Iowa State. I really like head coach Matt Campbell, and he’s 9-2 ATS as a dog here, they blew the 2017 game at home 41-44, and lost at Iowa 13-3.  6 of the last 8 meetings have been close, but Iowa State has had a tough time getting over the hump.

Iowa State’s defense is a major reason why I like them here.  They have the best linebackers in the Big 12, and an All Big 12 nose tackle which anchors the 3-3-5 defense in Ray Lima.  Lima will be going up against a red shirt freshman at Center who was recruited to play DL and is making just his third start.  It’s a lot to ask because normally you don’t have a defender lined up right in front of you when you face a 4-3. Iowa State also likes to show confusion at the line and brings different linebackers on blitzes, and I think that will have a big impact on an inexperienced Center. 

BYU +4.5 3.3% PLAY

I certainly don’t know how anyone could trust Clay Helton in the favorite role (7-15 ATS), and a QB that just played probably his best game ever 28-33 377 yards 3 TD’s, in Kedon Slovis who just 2 weeks ago was the third string QB here.  I’m betting that doesn’t happen again, and this is a major sandwich game for USC with Utah on deck especially how everyone is telling USC how great they are and they are back in the top 25.

BYU opened the season against Utah in a 30-12 loss, but that game was much closer, and I expect BYU’s crowd to really be a factor here.  I think USC played their A game against Stanford, and I really don’t see them playing their A game in back to back weeks. They were awful on the road last year only winning by 4 at Arizona, and 3 at Oregon State, the two worst PAC 12 teams last year.  

I think BYU and Zach Wilson got their confidence last week against Tennessee, and I think it carries into this game.  I really like what I see from Wilson as QB. It hasn’t showed up this year, but I think he has a big game here. On the flip side I think Kedon Slovis makes a mistake.  BYU returns a ton of experience on defense. A defense that was 26th in passing defense against a pretty good strength of schedule. They also were #1 in explosive defense, and I think they are just going to bore USC into turnovers.  BYU also #17 in special teams and is proving they are just as good this year. I think they do all the little things to get this win at home. 

Air Force +3.5 3.3% PLAY

I think Air Force is catching Colorado at the perfect time with their PAC 12 opener on deck.  For one they are off a bye with plenty of time to prepare for Colorado, and this game is an 11am local kick which clearly favors a service academy.  Colorado just off an emotional overtime victory coming back from 17-0 to beat Nebraska, and now they have to face Air Force and the triple option. Colorado is 2-0 SU and ATS on the season, but they have two misleading finals, and could just as easily be 0-2, but you have to give Mel Tucker and this coaching staff credit.

Tucker coming over from Georgia where he was the DC has seen the option before facing Georgia Tech every year, but Colorado and its players has nto, and they spent the majority of the summer preparing for up-tempo spread teams like Colorado State and Nebraska.  Now they did focus a bit on the triple option, but not a ton, and I think this is Air Force’s best team since their 10-3 year two seasons ago. 

Air Force has 14 returning starters, which is a lot for a service academy.  They are always a tough opponent in non-conference play where they are 11-2 ATS the last 3 years, because preparing for the triple option is not easy.  Colorado so far ranks 125th in stuff rate, which should add up to Air Force controlling the clock in this game.

Pitt +17.5 2.2% PLAY

I like Pitt for a few different reasons here.  For one they controlled the clock in both games, and held Penn State 33 yards under their season average, and 148 yards under their season average, but unfortunately turned the ball over 6 times.  They were in both games despite the final scores the last two years. They also beat Ohio by more than the final score would have indicated as they outgained Ohio 481 to 212 in the 20-10 final, which makes Pitt appear to be not that great.  Penn State also played a MAC team last week at home, and they were getting beat on both sides of the ball on the line of scrimmage. They trailed at half time, and were outgained in the game, but all of that is hidden because they won 45-13 and covered the 31.5 point spread.

Now maybe that was a wake up call for this Penn State team, but I’m betting that Pitt wants this game bad, and there are enough red flags for Penn State, and more strengths for Pitt for me to believe this will be a game.  Penn State who is breaking in a new QB in Sean Clifford has not been great on third down. Penn State is just 3-17 on third down, and Pitt’s defense has held opponents 11-30 on third down. Pitt’s defense has played great against two respectable opponents.  They held Virginia to 310 yards of offense and even that game was closer than the final indicated.

I like that we are getting line value here with Pitt.  Narduzzi has always been a good dog coach, and is 12-6 ATS as a road dog.  Beat Clemson as a 21 point dog on the road in 2016. I think they have high variance with Mark Whipple as the OC, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them pull the upset here.  This Pitt offense is due to click at some point, and I think Pitt might surprise them a bit with their new look offense. Now, if Pitt turns the ball over a bunch again then they will lose this game and not cover the spread.  Pitt, however does take care of the ball on the road with only 12 TO’s in their last 13 road games.

Houston +9 2.2% play

Houston has gone 4-2 the last 3 years against the Power 5, with their only losses coming to in-state Texas Tech by 3 and 14 points.  The AAC is 5-2 vs. the PAC 12, and that includes Houston defeating Arizona the last two seasons by 27 and 3 points. Washington State has opened it up against two weak opponents and have looked great offensively it just looks like they can plug any QB they want into the system as Anthony Gordon 9 passing TD’s to 1 INT, which came against the likes of New Mexico State and Northern Colorado.  I think Houston is a bit under the radar here, as they shut down the offense in the second half against Praire View A&M, and they opened against Oklahoma in week1. It’s like everyone forgot about D’Eriq King and this offense that I think Washington State is going to have problems with.

Houston ranked top 25 in rushing yards per carry, and QB rating.  Washington State did not face a single team last year that had top 50 rushing and passing, and they did not face a single team with a top 25 offense in either category.  The last time they did face a team like this on the road was Arizona in 2017, which was when Khalil Tate was taking college football by storm. Arizona beat Washington State 58-37.  Washington State won 11 games last year, and I feel like they are getting far too much credit, and the PAC 12 is just not really good lets be honest. Washington STate has struggled at home against bad offenses stopping the run.  They gave up over 200 yards rushing and 2 TD’s to Northern Colorado last week. Northern Colorado could not get the running game going against San Jose STate in week 1 who held them to 2.68 ypc and 110 yards. The last time Washington State faced a mobile QB it was the Utah QB Huntley who is not nearly as mobile as King.  Huntley had 88 yards rushing and although Utah lost that game 24-28 they should have won. I think Washington State has trouble here, and if they do get a big lead early on the road the back door should be wide open. Houston always plays well when they step up in competition

Minn -3 3.3% play

Minnesota gets 2 extra days of rest and preparation while Fresno played USC late on Saturday, but will host MInnesota here in what should be a challenging travel situation for Minnesota, but I believe we are getting some betting value as Minnesota struggled against an FCS opponent last week.  South Dakota State is the #3 FCS team and Minnesota returns 90% of their offensive and defensive production that beat a Fresno State team last year by 7. Fresno State returns just 9 starters, and I know that teams returning 9 or fewer starters this year went 10-1 ATS last week, but that’s such a small sample size, and when you lose this much production as an Group of 5 team you will struggle especially when you are going to be dealing with inflated numbers all year long.  Fresno State is the first team going back 10 years to have consecutive seasons with 10 wins ATS. Their had only been 3 teams to win 20 in 2 years, and 6 more who won 19, and those teams the following year went just 41-63 ATS.

Fresno State was right in the game last year against Minnesota, and I believe Minnesota won’t take them lightly and this is very much a business trip.  The other thing to factor in is Minnesota did not have their star RB Rodney Smith as he got hurt after 1 carry last year. They also had a very different QB in Anextad, and Tanner Morgan has played much better and really opens this offense up.  He averaged 9.2 yards per pass attempt compared to 6.9 by Anexstad, and Minnesota has a tandem of WR in Tyler Johnson and RAshad Bateman who are the best duo at Minnesota at receiver in over a decade.

Fresno State lost their QB in McMaryion and I know Jorge Reyna has some grit, and is supposed to be better, but he is relying on a completely new group of receivers, and is very mistake prone to start.  I think it’s asking a lot of Fresno to keep covering spreads, and this is supposed to be a down year while Minnesota should be up it just did not show up last week against a very good FCS team. Minnesota went on the road to the PAC 12 in 2017 as a 3 point dog and won 48-14 at Oregon State under PJ Fleck so I’m confident he’ll have this team ready.

Texas +6.5 3.3% play 

This line is puzzling and it's kept me from releasing it earlier in the week in hopes of waiting for a 7.  There are some 7's out there, but neither of my books have it, and I'm comfortable with 6.5.  First of all I don't understand this line other than the fact that LSU just has better depth right now, and Texas has running back issues, but Sam Ehlinger can carry the load in big games and has proven that in the past.  Also, it's not like LSU can run the ball like they used to.  They averaged just 3.63 yards per carry on the road last year, and had only 122 yards in game one against Georgia Southern.  

Sam Ehlinger > Joe Burrow.  I'm sorry he just is, and I feel more confident in Texas ability to get him into 3rd and long and release their different defensive packages to cause confusion and force turnovers which is the biggest keys to this game.  LSU +12 in wins in TO Margin, -2 in losses, while Texas was +9 and -4 in losses, but Texas only turned the ball over 5 times at home all last season.  

Tom Herman > Ed Orgeron.  I like Ed O, but Tom is a better coach especially in big games.  I am not even going to throw out the stat of Tom Herman as a dog.  Tom Herman also has experience going up against a Dave Aranda defense, and Texas runs the same defense in practice so I expect Ehlinger to be just fine in this game.  The two previous match ups between a Herman offense and an Aranda defense resulted in 7 passing TD's 0 INT (BIG KEY), and over 500 yards rushing as Ohio State out scored Wisconsin 110-24 in 2013-14.

Recruiting - Texas has out recruited LSU the last two years, and was right there in 2017.  Despite Texas having to replace 8 defensive starters, the guys replacing last years starters are probably better.  I think Texas really matches up well in this game, and if they can tackle and force Burrow into a mistake with confusion they should win this game outright.

Texas State +7 4.4% NCAAF POD

Wyoming is just 2-4 ATS under Boh as a road favorite, and they have to do it this week after a home upset of Missouri where their fans rushed the field.  First of all that was a completely misleading final. So many things happened in that game including turnovers from Missouri that led to 10 points, but also took away 14 points form Missouri which was a 24 point swing.

Texas State stays in their home state, and have 2 extra days to prepare and rest which is a big deal in my opinion.  I really like the head coach hiring of Jake Savital, and I think their offense will look a lot better this week against Wyomin’s secondary, a unit that lost two 4 year starters who were the glue of that defense.  It certainly showed as Kelly Bryant passed for 423 yards, and Bryant is not really known for his arm. In all they lost 100 starters in the secondary, and it will be a tough match-up for Wyoming as Texas State under OC Bob Stitt, and HC Spavital have made it pretty clear they will throw the ball.

Texas State did not play well at Texas A&M, but I’m going to give them a pass considering they played a borderline top 10 team, on the road at night @ Kyle Field in front of 98,000 fans.  What I like most about Texas State is they return 10 starters from a unit that ranked 43rd in yards per play allowed facing an average opponent offense ranking 66th in ypp on offense. They have the best LB’s in the Sun Belt, and they go up against a one dimensional Wyoming unit.  I don’t think SEan Chambers can pass the ball he was 6-16, and I think it will lead to some mistakes by Wyoming.

Baylor/UTSA Over 57.5 2.2% play 

This game is taking place in 102 degree heat, and I think both teams will struggle on defense given the fact that they have stronger offenses at this point in time.  Baylor even under Matt Rhule continues to run a lot of plays per game and ranked 7th last year at 80 per game.  Their offense should improve yet again as they return 8 offensive starters and a veteran offensive line.

UTSA also returns 8 players on offense, and just 5 on defense.  They have a new offensive coordinator who is already showing signs of moving significantly faster with 84 plays in game 1 which was 7 plays more than their highest total a year ago.  I think we see a lot of offense, and the higher temperatures tend to go that way especially with a team like Baylor that wants to play fast. 

West Virginia +14 2.2% PLAY

This is a lot of points for MIssouri, who played really sloppy last week losing to Wyoming with 3 turnovers, while giving up 297 yards on the ground and 7 yards per carry.  West Virginia returns a trio of RB’s who combined for 1871 yards last year, and they bring in an excellent coach in Neal Brown from Troy. Neal Brown at Troy the last three years, beat Nebraska on the road, LSU on the road, and lost to Clemson on the road by only 6 points in 2016.  In my opinion, Neal Brown falls into the category of a top tier HC in his first year. Those type of coaches have gone 39-18 ATS over the last 3 years as a dog. 

Troy was among the slowest teams in college football under Neal Brown at 66 plays per game which was 109th last year, and in their first game they had just 66 plays.  I expect much of the same in this game, which gives us more value on 14 total points in my opinion.

I understand West Virginia looked awful against James Madison, but JMU is the #2 ranked FCS team in the country, and have given P5 opponents games before.  They lost 24-13 to NC State early in the year, and that NC State team went on to go 9-3. I’m not saying West Virginia is that good, but I think they have more talent that it showed last week, and I just don’t agree with the line moving from 10.5 at open to 14.

Syracuse +1.5 2.2% PLAY 

Syracuse is the better team, and they have the better coach.  This line has moved 4 points or so since opening, and it’s because of Maryland’s 79-0 thrashing of Howard, and the fact that Syracuse has Clemson on deck, but I’m siding with Syracuse whose strength really translates on the road.  Syracuse defense was elite against LIberty, who has players, and they got the running game going as well. To me we have value because their QB did not play well, but I expect he will play a lot better this week. Syracuse since Dino Babers has come aboard is 9-3 ATS As an away dog, and I think this is another opportunity where they are getting disrespected going from a favorite to a dog.

The line of scrimmage favors Syracuse.  Maryland had just 18 sacks a season ago which ranked them 114th.  They had 8 sacks in the first game, but that was against Howard, and Syracuse also had 8 sacks, but they are clearly more proven.  Syracuse ranked 21st in pass rush last year while Maryland ranked 126th protecting the QB, and that was against a very poor pass rushing units, on average they faced 71.5 ranked pass rush.

I also think Syracuse is in better shape, and it’s going to be in the 80s on Saturday.  MIke Locksley had to stop practice to give his guys a break this week because of the heat, and he did not sound like a confident coach.  Additionally we have seen this before with Maryland getting off to a fast start, and hype around their talent level, but it never comes to fruition. I don’t see anything changing under Locksley, who does not have a good history as a head coach.  If you still think the Howard win is impressive, Kent State beat Howard last year 79-0.

Pitt -4 2.2% 

We backed Pitt in a teaser last week and I still feel like it was the right side getting 9 points of line movement.  This week we will back them on the side, as we are getting 2.5 points of line value from the 6.5 at open. It’s also very weird to see 67% of the action on Ohio in money, but the line has gone the other way.  Pitt lost the game 30-14, but all 3 of Virginia’s TD’s came with great field position. They started all three of those drives on their own 29 yard line or better. Pitt has been a top 25 unit on special teams, and they are facing an opponent with far less talent.  Now many will point to this being a sandwich game before Penn STate, but I”m not buying into that all. Pitt needs a win here with a road game at Penn State, and UCF the following week. I think we are getting great value here because of last week’s results.

Ohio just simply does not have as much talent.  In 2017 their recruits ranked 109th out of the 130 school while PItt ranked 33rd.  These are the players that are playing today. Ohio has been a darling of the Group of 5, but during the regular season, they are just 2-6 vs. the Power 5 since 2013.  The two wins were both against Kansas, arguably the worst of the Power 5. The 6 losses were by an average of 18 points per game.

I think we see a balanced attack from PItt here.  They averaged 7.3 ypc on the ground at home last year, and even though they have 4 new starters on the offensive line, they brought in OC Mark Whipple, who led Umass of all teams to two top 50 yards per play seasons.  However, I feel Pitt gets back to running more. I don’t see them running the ball only 15x, and that should be a good thin as Ohio’s run defense is not nearly as good on the road, and that will take the pressure off the offensive line to pass block, and set Whipple up for some bigger plays later in the game.  I also like the fact that Pitt held Virginia to just 310 yards and 129 on the ground, and Virginia has a mobile QB as does Ohio.

Marshall +12 2.2% play

I think we are getting some line value here with Marshall after Boise is sky high after a come from behind win at Florida State which saw their offense run 107 plays.  The offense looked great, but they still averaged less than 6 yards per play on a gassed Florida State defense.  Confidence is sky high with true freshman Hank Bachmeier after he threw the ball 51 times for 407 yards 1 TD and 1 INT on the road against an ACC defense, but sometimes too much confidence is a bad thing.  Boise State just 12-20-1 ATS the last 5 years on the turf, and 11-21 ATS as a home favorite under Harsin.  Doc Holliday is the better coach, and is 11-4 ATS as a dog, and 5-0 in bowl games.  I believe these Marshall team is treating this like a bowl game.  They are clearly more excited about facing Boise in a Friday night spotlight game than Boise is.  Many players calling this a measuring stick game, and a game that you get excited for.

The key of the game is to stop the run and put the pressure on the true freshman QB.  The Marshall defense has a 15-game streak without allowing an individual 100-yard rusher.  The defense also held up pretty good on the road last year allowing opponents to rush for just 3.2 yards per carry.  Marshall wants to start fast, and I think they can.  Boise State trailed Florida State 31-13 after the first 12 drives where they gave up 11.5 yards per play while they had just 5.3.  On the flip side Boise secondary can be thrown on, and Marshall has an experienced offensive line with 111 career starts led by LT Levi Brown.  They averaged 5.23 yards per carry on the road a season ago.

I have to be honest, this game is probably a spread of 6.5 if Florida State was in shape and held onto their 31-13 lead.  However, we all know what happened, and you have to give Boise credit, but I think Marshall has a better coach than Florida State.  I think this game will be a battle, and I would not be shocked to see Marshall pull an upset.  After all this was supposed to be the year Boise took a step back. They lost a 4 year starter at QB, their top 2 WR, and top RB.  I just think there were too many weird factors with Florida State, and enough opportunity for the Seminoles to not be prepared.  Sometimes when games get moved, and you are in your home state it’s not a good thing, and it’s not like that Stadium was packed in the second half when Boise made their come back.

Louisville +19 2.2% play 

I think there is some value here on the home dog.  Louisville quit on their coach last year, and now they bring in Scott Satterfield, who did great things at App State.  Louisville returns 16 starters, and open up in a game against highly touted Notre Dame on national television.  This is Notre Dame's largest road favorite role since 2000, and thought hey return their star QB in Ian Boo, they lose their top RB, and arguably their top 4 defensive players.  Louisville is figured to feature more of the running game, and I think they should be able to get it going against a young Notre Dame defense.  Louisville will run a very different offense than Notre Dame is used to seeing, and I think Louisville will be able to move the ball a bit here at home, with a heavy dose of the RPO, and lots of pre-snap motion deception and different formations.  Also worth noting is special teams.  Scott Satterfield has always had among the best special teams units in the country and I don't think it will be any different here at Louisville.

Situationally I also think this play makes a lot of sense.  On one hand you have an Ap Top 10 team from the pre-season + Notre Dame getting hype here.  I typically like to fade that situation, and aside from Alabama, Clemson, and Georgia who seem to cover regardless of hype, the other top 10 teams went 2-4 ATS, and it's been a losing proposition over the last 5 years to back a pre-season AP Top 10.  Top tier first year head coaches in the Power 5 typically do extremely well as a dog in their first year.  The last two years if you take the top tier coaches in their first year as a dog who had coaching experience they went 38-18 ATS and 40-18 ATS if we count this year's results.  Those coaches are Kirby Smart, Tom Herman, Josh Wilcox, Matt Campbell, Justin Fuente, DAn Mullen, Scott Frost, JImbo Fisher, and Chip Kelly.  I threw out coaches for this year like Manny Diaze (W ATS as a dog), Neal Brown, Mack Brown (W ATS as a dog), and Les Miles, and Scott Satterfield as potential coaches to back as a dog.

LA Tech +20.5 3.3% play

Texas beat Georgia in their bowl game, but that was an unmotivated Georgia team, and Sam Ehlinger claimed Texas waas back, but this is one of the more overrated teams in college football if you ask me, and I love fading the pre-season AP Top 10 in the first few weeks of college football.  Texas has just 8 returning starters, and lost their entire front 7, leading rusher, and receiver, and they are getting all this hype. They also have LSU on deck so how motivated is Tom Herman and Texas to run the score up here? Herman, is not that type of coach. In fact he is just 6-15-1 ATS as a home favorite, and lost the last two season openers as a double digit favorite at Texas.

There is a lot to like about Louisiana Tech and Skip Holtz.  He’s 14-4 ATS as a road dog, and he has a very experienced team with a lot of depth coming into this season.  They also have experience playing on the road in SEC Country having played at LSU< and Miss State last year, and South Carolina the year before.  J’Mar Smith, the veteran QB has 27 career starts under his belt, and won’t be fearful of this environment. I think Smith is going to have a much better year behind a very good offensive line that brings in a 4* LSU transfer to plug a hole, and more talent in the receiving corp.  Louisiana Tech’s defense is my worry as they switch to the 3-4, but they have a Power 5 caliber secondary, which should slow this game down quite a bit. I don’t see any big play TD’s for Texas in this game.

Duke +32.5 2.2% play

I really think there is line value in this number.  It’s on a neutral field. Duke went on the road to play Clemson last year and they were 28 point dogs, which would suggest they would be +26.5 on a neutral against Clemson last year.  They lost that game 35-6 so it’s not the first time this team has had to go up against a giant like Alabama.

This is the 8th season in a row that Alabama is opening the season up on a neutral field, and this is their largest favorite role against a Power 5 opponent.  Their average margin of victory over that period is 25.7 points, and they certainly deserve a lot of hype coming into this game, but I feel Duke can hang for several reasons.  Duke and coach Cutcliffe have been great as a dog going 25-10 ATS in their last 35 games. Alabama has a lot of moving parts right now having to replace both coordinators, and I feel like there is a recipe out there to beat Tua now.  Duke has a lot of experience in this game in the secondary, and they run a 4-2-5 defense, and if Tua is not careful I could see Duke coming up with a couple of turnovers. Their secondary returns all 4 starters and is led by Jim Thorpe nominee Michael Cater.  With that being said I think the concentration here will be to run the ball, because that’s what Duke’s weakness is on defense which leads to a moving clock.

Coastal Carolina +6 4.4% NCAAF POD

Eastern MIchigan has just 10 returning starters as they head out on the road as the MAC faces off against the Sun Belt.  The Sun Belt has gone 12-9 against the MAC, but the battles have been pretty even. I have tremendous respect for Chis Creighton and what he’s achieved here at Eastern Michigan, but with 10 returning starters I have questions.  This team has played in a lot of close games, and has relied on the defense on the road, but I’m predicting they take a step back, and they have a tough task against Coastal Carolina.

Coastal returns 15 starters, and has more depth than last year and 5 of their 9 losses were by 8 points or less. When depth was less of an issue Coastal defeated UAB 47-24 at home in week 2, and UAB went on to go 11-3.  I think Coastal has a shot to pull the upset here. The offense should improve and was better than their final numbers, and the defense returns 8 starters. They just missed out on a bowl game last year and improve from #111 in experience to #51.  Playing a lot of young guys last year will pay dividends this year.

Pitt +8.5 & Florida State -0.5 Teaser of the Week - 42-28 +46.2% ROI Last 70 NCAAF Teasers

Pitt +8.5

Virginia has more returning starters, and an under rated QB, but they are getting too much hype here in my opinion. Many are picking them to get to the ACC Championship, a game Pitt got to last year. Pitt does lose a lot on offense, 4 OL, 2 1,000 yard RB's, but they gain an excellen offensive mind in Mark Whipple. Highly experienced and led Umass the last two years to two top 50 yards per play. I expect this offense to be just fine, and they typically are able to replace RB's fairly easy. I think the defense will be very good, and this game just seems like a game that comes down to the wire..

Virginia just 1-4 on the road last year, too much hype, and the line has moved 3 points + 6 points I'm getting on a teaser with a team in Pitt feeling disrespected playing at home. Also those 9 points I'm getting off the opener are extremely valuable when you factor in the total is 45.5 for the game, I'll take it.

Florida State -0.5

Florida State has 16 returning starters, and this game has turned into a home game due to the hurricane. Also, FSU already had 90% of the tickets when the game was in Jax, and now it will be at home. This is a far trip for Boise, at nearly 2500 miles. FSU is coming off their worst year since the 70's and I think they have something to prove. Boise State, in my opinion is not the same team that used to pull these upsets against major football programs. I also don't have a lot of faith in their head coach Bryan Harsin and they lose a 4 year starting QB, and a 1400 yard rusher. Meanwhile, Florida State returns 16 starters, and is hungry to start the season on a high note, and Willie Taggart has been a coach that win more games in his second year.

East Carolina +17.5 3.3% Play

I think there is some value here in East Carolina who has been a cash burner the last 3 seasons under MOntgomery going 10-25 ATS.  Mike Houston steps in after coaching JMU last year, and has good experienced, and played at NC State last year losing by only 11 points, and the game was closer than that.  NC State only out gained them by 40 yards, and were unlucky recovering only 1 of the 3 fumbles in the game.  I think we are getting value because of how bad East Carolina has been, and they also lost by 55 to NC State last year to end the year, but their HC was fired 48 hours before, and that was a make up game.

East Carolina has a tendency to play these in state games tough especially against the Power 5 opponents.  East Carolina beat NC State in 2016, and they also beat North Carolina as a 16 point dog last season.  A lot of these players probably wanted to play at NC State, and weren't recruited, with 14 returning starters and a far better coach at the helm I think this game comes down to the wire.  Especially considering what NC State lost on offense.  NC State managed only 24 points against JMU last year and under 400 yards.  NC State loses their QB Ryan Finley, who is #2 all time in passing yards in program history, 2 1,000 yard receivers, and 1,000 yard RB, and they are breaking in two new coordinators on the offensive side. I don't see how they could be laying 17.5 points here.  On the other side of the ball I like East Carolina's chances to move the ball as they have a mobile QB in Holton Ahlers.  Add it all up and I would not be totally shocked to see East Carolina have a shot to beat NC State in the end. 

Oregon State +13.5 2.2% play 

Oregon State is 19-3 all time in home openers, but this is obviously a step up in competition facing a Big 12 opponent.  These two conferences have been pretty even over the years, and Oregon State is one of the PAC 12 teams I show as improving this year, especially ATS.  Oklahoma State has just 12 returning starters, and I don't think they have a QB that fits Gundy's system.  Gundy will be splitting between two guys, and one of them is Dru Brown, a transfer from Hawaii.

The strength of both teams on defense is in the secondary, and the strength of both offenses is running the ball.  I fully expect both teams to come out running the ball and that gives us more value with 13.5 point spread in my opinion with the home team.  Oregon State also has much more returning this year with their top 8 tacklers on defense compared with Oklahoma State's front 7 that has to replace all 4 defensive lineman and their top two linebackers.  Oklahoma State finished last in their conference in stopping the run and ranked 78th overall having gone up against an average rushing offense ranked 78th.  Now Oregon State's rushing ypc doesn't look great, but that's because they took a ton of sacks.  Jermar Jefferson was a stud rushing for over 1400 yards and 5.8ypc.  They had over 200 yards or 5ypc against decent defenses Stanford, Washington State, Arizona State, and Ohio State.  Oregon State also added some depth, which was a major issue a year ago.  I think Oregon State will be able to run the ball at home particularly to the left where their LG & LT are in their 3rd year as starters against a very inexperienced front 7 of Oklahoma State.  If I'm right on this we should have a close game in my opinion, because Oklahoma State although they have the talent at WR don't have the talent at QB, and they go up against Oregon State's pass defense which is the strength of their defense.  Gundy is a smart coach, and I expect he'll lean on the run here in their first road game.

I do think Oklahoma State's defense improves as the season goes on as they are in year #2 of Knowles 4-2-5, which is great for the Big 12, but not against a team that should have success running the ball. 

Rutgers -16 2.2% play

Okay so this play is not going to excite you by any means. Rutgers a 16 point favorite are you kidding me?  This is the newsletter I signed up for?  This is one of those ugly plays though, and I like it enough for a few different reasons.  If you listened to my podcast earlier in the week you heard me talk about Umass and their coaching staff.  Walt Bell takes over, and it will be his first time as a head coach, but he's also taking on play calling duties.  Not an ideal situation for a first time coach, who was not very good as an offensive coordinator.  He spent 16-17 with Maryland, and the offense got worst 91st, to 120th in YPP, and then last year with Florida State where they ranked 109th in YPP on offense. Last time I checked Umass does not have the talent of Maryland or Florida State and since switching to an Independent school their recruiting has also gone down, and they return only 8 starters. 

Rutgers closed the 2018 season with 11 straight losses, and we could not be buying any lower on this team.  Your reaction to me playing Rutgers as a double digit favorite is the exact reason why I'm doing it, but more goes into it than that.  Rutgers needs a feel good win to start this year, and they were in a very similar situation last year as a 16.5 point favorite to open the year against Texas State, and they won 35-7.  They had another big role as a favorite in 2017 against Morgan State -41, that many people laughed at and they won 65-0.  HC Chris Ash is in his 4th year here and is definitely not afraid to run it up against worse teams.  Rutgers also has 8 starters back on offense, and I feel like a night game on a Friday night will motivate this team to give it their best to start the season. 

Wisconsin -10.5 3.3% play

This line dropped 3 points in the last day or so making it a play for me. I was hoping to catch a 10, but that does not look like it will happen. I expect the line to move back up towards 13.5 by Friday night.  I'm not at all concerned with the weather as this game figures to be a slower tempo game with these two head coaches, and it's supposed to be almost 10 degrees cooler tomorrow night in Tampa than tonight.  South Florida returns 9 starters on offense, but I don't think I can get too excited about that as they just were not a good offense last year vs. good defenses.  They faced a ton of bad defenses, and scored points, but against top 60 defenses they averaged just 17 points per game.  Their QB Blake Barnett (Alabama transfer) completed just 53% of his passes for 206 yards per game, with 5 TD/4INT's.  Their running game produced just 3.4 yards per game, and here they go up against a Wisconsin defense that is hungry to prove they are back to the 2017 version where they were fully healthy.

On the flip side of the ball Wisconsin offense is led by the best RB in college football in Jonathan Taylor, and I expect they should be able to run all over South Florida.  Against top 50 rushing offenses South Florida allowed 303 yards rushing per game, and nearly 4 rushign TD's a game and gave up 34 points per game.  Wisconsin last year rushed for over 300 yards in 6 games last year and averaged 41.33 ppg going 6-0 and winning by 21 points per game.

Clemson/GTech Under 61 2.2% play 

I see value in tonight's under which I feel is inflated a bit.  Georgia Tech is breaking in an entirely new offense, and going away from the spread, so I would honestly be shocked if they scored more than 10 points.  I feel like Clemson will get out to a big lead and shut things down in the second half and get ready for their big game with Texas A&M next week.  I don't think they want to show too much, and Dabo Swinney has mentioned a few different times that he's not really confident in his second team.  Expect that second team to get some reps tonight, and I think that will be good for the total going under 61. 

UCLA +3 4.4% NCAAF POD

3’s popped up again at a few locations, and I’m going to grab the Bruins here.  These two opened up the 2018 season @ UCLA, and the Bruins had hype with Chip Kelly taking over, and were 14 point favorites, and lost outright.  I see a bit of revenge here for UCLA, and I don’t really think that there is an 11 point difference between these two teams from last year. UCLA was breaking in an entirely new system, and they lost their QB halfway through the game.  This season they return 19 starters, and are in Chip Kelly’s second year of the system, and we saw improvements down the stretch as the offense averaged 432 yards per game over their last 8 compared to 312 over the first 4. They also faced a top 10 strength of schedule. Power 5 head coaches have done really well in their second year as a dog over the past 4 years 99-80 ATS, and I like the fact that UCLA is getting points here.  

Cincinnati had a great year last year and I have been extremely impressed with Luke Fickell taking Cinci to an 11-2 season a year ago.  They had one of the weaker schedules however, and when you compare against UCLA it is very obvious. Cincinnati's offense faced an average 75th ranked YPP defense, compared to UCLA’S 40TH opponent average.  Their defense faced an average 67th opponent YPP offense, and that is inflated by facing Central Florida. Compare that against UCLA opponent offense ranking 53rd. It’s also worth noting that Cinci has a much bigger game on deck at Ohio State. 

Miami +7.5 3.3% play 

Florida is off a 10 win season and getting plenty of hype ranking #8 in the AP polls, but return 13 starters compared to 19 a season ago.  I see a lot of red flags with this team coming into the year.  Also, teams in the AP TOP 10 don't particularly do well over the season, or over the first 3 games.  In fact only 28 of the 70 teams over the last 7 years have had a winning record ATS over the first 3 games.  

Florida offensively is the huge question mark as they break in 4 new starters on the offensive line, and they get a bad match up to start the year against Miami's talented front 7.  I don't expect a crazy game plan here from Florida.  I do see them trying to connect early on a big play or two, but turnovers could be a reason if they are not careful that they lose this game outright.  Feleipe Franks looked good down the stretch, but he really hasn't proven anything against a good defense, and with the loss of 141 career starts on the offensive line I think he's going to have a rough go of it against Miami's defense.

Miami has similar question marks on offense, with two freshman tackles, and a freshman QB starting in Jeron Williams.  Williams is a highly touted, dual threat QB, and with Dan Enos taking over as the offensive coordinator I'm confident that he will have a very good season.  Enos previously at Alabama as the QB coach did pretty well with a freshman QB in Tua.  I don't see them cutting him completely lose here, and do expect Florida's defense to hold Miami in check as both offenses have a conservative approach.  We have a low total and 7.5 points looks really good. 

The red flags that I mentioned are possible player suspensions on the Florida side.  You can almost guarantee that there will be some, and Dan Mullen said those would not be announced until Saturday.  Florida already has depth issues on this roster, and playing August 24th, in the heat with one less week of conditioning is going to be a major issue in this game especially late.  Dan Enos offense also put up big numbers when he was with Arkansas against Dan Mullen's Miss State defenses so these two know each other well, and that's even more reason to expect a close game to open up the season on Saturday night. 

Clemson/Alabama Over 57 3.3% play - I actually think 1H under, so if you like to bet value you may get a better number in the 2nd quarter, or at half time.

It was raining yesterday and this morning in Santa Clara, and that has started to drive the total down along with the fact that there is a notion that field conditions here are not good.  Two college games played here went well under, but neither was an offensive juggernaut. Washington vs. Utah, PAC 12 Championship, and MIchigan State vs. Oregon in the Redbox Bowl. However, the 49ers, and Seahawks played an OT game in the rain and the field held up well and I don’t think impacted the offenses.  New turf was put on just for this game and it has been covered, so I feel the field will be in excellent shape and we are getting value on the over as the last 59 games played here in NFL & College have gone under 61%. This total is already coming down, and I feel like we have value with two offenses led by future NFL 1st round picks at the QB position.  They both have a threat of the running game, and they have 4 receivers going against overrated secondaries. Weather will be around 50 degrees with no wind.

Clemson +6 5.5% NCAAF POD 

I absolutely think Clemson has the ingredients to upset Alabama.  Alabama has shown some vulnerabilities in the last few games against worse teams.  Looking at Clemson’s body of work and statistical resume, they mostly mirror Georgia on offense, and Miss State on defense.  Georgia has a weakness in stopping the run, and Alabama exploited it as they rank 53rd while Clemson ranks #1. Miss State who held Alabama to 24 points in their own building has one weakness and that’s the QB play, and we already know that Trevor Lawrence is cool calm, and has an NFL arm.  He threw for 327 yards against Notre Dame, a team that ranked 4th vs. the pass. Alabama’s secondary is definitely vulnerable as they lost a ton of talent to the NFL last year. They really only played two offenses that could run and pass all year. That came against Georgia and Oklahoma who both put up big offensive numbers on them.  Oklahoma got behind 28-0, but out played Alabama in quarters 2, 3, and 4. Clemson also has an advantage as Alabama ranks 72nd in explosive defense. They rank 46th in explosive run defense specifically, so Clemson, a team that has talent at WR with Tee Higgins, a big body guy, Justyn Ross, the speedy guy, Amari Rodgers and Hunter Renfro the third down guys to go along with Travis Etienne at RB and QB Trevor Lawrence runs the RPO as good as anyone I have seen all year.

Alabama’s offense is their best that I can ever remember, but they face the best defense they have faced all year in this game.  The front 7 is the strength of Clemson, and at some point Tua is going to have to make plays in this game. I do think the weakness for Clemson is in pass defense, but it’s hard to even know that for sure as they also did not play in a lot of close games, but Jake Bentley, South Carolina put up 35 points and 510 yards passing including a couple of plays over 67 yards.  I think Tua will have a big play or two in this game so if you have a prop option to take him over 45 yards for longest pass I would take it. Clemson does have an explosive defense ranked 11t in allowing explosive plays, but I think their schedule has a lot to do with it. Clemson did not face a balanced offense all year until Notre Dame, but Notre Dame’s weakness offensively was running the ball ranking 45th.  Clemson has shut down the 3 top 20 rushing offenses they faced, but all 3 did not have any QB play with Georgia Tech, Georgia Southern, and Pitt combining for 38 total points. Again value for the over, because we have seen Clemson struggle against a team that can throw the ball.

Common opponents - Texas A&M, and Louisville.  You could argue Alabama played better against A&M, and Clemson played better against Louisville.  Clemson actually played better in the trenches on the road than Alabama did at home. Clemson +44 yards holding A&M to 71 yards rushing while Alabama -21 yards giving up 130 rushing yards.  Clemson also started Kelly Bryant at QB in that game, and it was their first road game against Jimbo Fisher who was very experienced in facing Clemson. Against Louisville, Alabama had an advantage of preparing for them all off season and they out gained them running the ball 222 to 16.  Clemson, outgained them on the ground 492 to 81 yards.

The key here is going to be pass rush for both teams.  Christina Miller is ? for Alabama with a hamstring and I have a hard time believing if he plays he will be effective, and will probably hurt it again.  Clemson’s Dexter Lawrence is suspended, but his spot is given up to Sr. Albert Huggins, a better pass rusher which I feel helps them more in this matchup.  I think Tua is going to make a mistake in this game. We saw Georgia really pressure Tua and their pass rush ranked 88th. I think DC Venables can take a lot from that matchup and Tua tends to rush some decisions and try to play hero which could lead to a turnover in this game.  Down the stretch Alabama was -3 in TO margin over their last 6 games while Clemson was +3 over their last 6 games.

Special Teams edge to Alabama, but their punter is not good, and Nick Saban does not really have a lot of confidence in his kicker.  Alabama has the potential to return a kick for a TD, as Clemson has given up 2 this season. I give Clemson the edge in the red zone as they have better #’s for TD % on both offense and defense with a total edge of 20% and their offense has only improved since Lawrence took over.  They also have been penalized fewer. Alabama was penalized 9 times in their game against Oklahoma which clearly cost them the cover.

Last but not least is coaching.  Obviously Nick Saban is going to get the edge over Dabo Swinney, but when Saban does not have extra time to prepare which he doesn’t here his defense has not played well against Clemson.  In the first National Championship Saban knew this and had to steal a possession by kicking an onside kick, and the next year Clemson won on the last play of the game 35-31. I think both of these offenses have been better than those two games.  Last year Clemson’s offense was completely one dimensional and they lost 24-6 with Saban having extra time to prepare. However, the assistants is the key here, and they have a HUGE advantage for Clemson. This is the 4th time in 4 years they are strategizing for this game.  Clemson has 2 co-OC’s who have been here since 2015 as Jeff Scott and Tony Elliott are having their best season. They will go up against an inexperienced Alabama DC in Tosh Lupoi, 2nd year, and Pete Golding 1st year. Alabama also has a first time offensive coordinator in MIke Locksley who also has already taken the Maryland job.  He’s done a great job, but he goes up against Brent Venable who has been with Clemson since 2012.

Georgia -12 2.2% play 

I think Georgia is excited to be here, and I think they have a point to prove against Big 12 runner up in Texas.  Texas seems like they are on their way back and they have had a nice season, and Tom Herman is 12-3 ATS as a dog as a head coach, but I think they are going to really have issues here against Georgia.  I don't think they will be able to get off the field here, as Georgia has one of the best third down offenses, and Texas offense is one dimensional. Georgia will have issues with the tall receivers from Texas with their star CB sitting this one out, but I don't think it will matter I see Georgia scoring 40+ points here with their elite offense which ranked 6th compared to Texas who ranked 67th.  Texas also feasted on a very easy schedule, and really didn't play any defenses that were this good against the pass. I think Georgia cruises 45-24.

Washington +7 3.3% play 

If you don't have a +7 right now at your book you should get one with nearly 70% of the best on Ohio State, based on their last 2 games alone, and Urban Meyer's last game, but Washington is not going to just hand them this game.  This is a Washington team that prides themselves on developing and recruiting NFL caliber corner backs, and I think that gives them the edge in this match-up going up against Ohio State's #3 passing game behind Haskins who had an unbelievable season.  Washington can also stop the run, and have edges on defense.

Washington runs a different defense than MIchigan, who Ohio State lit up to end the season.  That Michigan win looks a lot less impressive now when you factor in Michigan got blown out in their bowl game too.  Washington has not had a bad game and all of their losses came by less than the TD with losses of 5, 3, and 2 points.  Where I think Washington has the biggest advantage is in the running game.  Myles Gaskin should have a big day here going up against Ohio State's 81st ranked defense.  I also think the innovative offensive mind of Chris Peterson should be huge here as Ohio State ranked 124th in explosive plays allowed.  Washington on the flip side ranks 3rd in explosive plays allowed which is a big part of Ohio State's offense.  While I think Big Ten is the bigger conference, I feel like this spread should be more like 3-4 points and it's at 7. 

Kentucky +6 NCAAF POD 

Just 36% of bettors are backing Kentucky here, as many feel like they were a fraudulent team.  I backed this team many times and faded them in the Tennessee game they lost to end the year following their loss against Georgia.  This is an emotional team and a team that is highly motivated to get to 10 wins, which would be a first in 40 years.  Kentucky is a senior laden team especially on defense.  A couple of those guys came back when they could have played in the NFL and left early, and again they could sit out this game, but they are playing this game, because it means something to them as Josh Allen has never won a bowl game. 

Kentucky's offense is the reason nobody wants to back them, but with Bennie Snell a little more healthy here, and motivating his team along with Terry Wilson, a mobile QB who has shown flashes with his arm at points this season.  Penn State's defense which is young has not faced a mobile QB All year except MIchigan's Shea Patterson who rushed for 42 yards and a TD as they gave up 42 points.  Wilson is much more dynamic, and I think he could be the difference maker here.  Penn State's defense gave up over 2,000 yards rushing this year.  They were not terrible, but they definitely can be run on, and Kentucky has dominated the line of scrimmage against far better defenses including Florida, and Miss State.  A Florida team they beat on the road that just got done dominated Michigan, a team that beat Penn State 42-7.

Penn State has Trace McSorley playing in his last game, but they are used to playing in bigger games, and against bigger programs.  I don't see how this game excites them and I don't think they'll be able to match Kentucky's intensity here.  At the end of the day the large spread is all about perception.  These teams are very similar in a lot categories including success rate differential which Kentucky is +5.2% compared to Penn State at +5.6%.

LSU -7.5 3.3% PLAY 

The AAC is getting too much credit this bowl season, and they have not showed up, 0-5 ATS.  They have losses of 18, 3, 56, and 29 this bowl season.  They went 0-2 vs. the SEC in the regular season losing by 27.5 points.  LSU played the far tougher schedule, and arguably the toughest in the country.  The one thing about LSU that we know is the fact that they play hard for Ed Oregeron no matter the situation.  I really can't say that about Auburn, a team that Central Florida beat last year.  Central Florida has also done a lot of talking this past year so I think if LSU has an opportunity to run it up here they absolutely will. 

I don't know how anyone could back UCF in this game, and I did back them their last 2 games of the season, but this is stepping it up in competition.  Over their last 5 games they allowed 290 yards rushing a game.  It's a major weakness for Central Florida's defense which is not nearly as good as the unit from a season ago.  Central Florida will have a tough time stopping LSU, and if LSU can control the game they should win by double digits.  I think Joe Burrow at QB is going to have a big day running the ball here, and nobody is talking about it.

UCF also is starting a backup QB in Mack.  He did impress me with his legs, and arm against Memphis, but Memphis has the 79th ranked pass defense.  LSU has a top 10 unit, and even with guys missing the game they should press the receivers at the line.  We will know right away with Dave Aranda's style if they will be able to dominate the game.  I am betting they will.  Central Florida relies on big plays, and LSU ranks 14th in explosive defense.

Iowa +7.5 3.3% play 

Iowa played few defenses that would be considered top 25 at the time and they averaged 13.3 points per game.  For sure this is the best defense they have faced in Miss State, but Miss State has to score points as well, and their offense against elite defenses averaged just 7.8 points per game over 5 games.  Miss State has a one dimensional attack with NIck Fitzgerald running the ball, something Iowa which ranks 10th in yards per play defense, and 13th against the run will be able to contain.  This is the best rushing defense Iowa has had in a few years, and their defensive line is going to play with a chip on their shoulders here.  All we have heard is Miss State's defensive line is great, but Iowa's DE Darker Hesse and AJ Epenesa lead a group that is 18th in sack %, and they go up against Miss State, a team that ranks 110th in protection.

This is a low total so grabbing Iowa at +7.5 with a total of 41 is worth taking. 

Texas A&M -7 -115 3.5% play 

These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now.  A&M is trending, and they will face an NC State with their best skill player on offense in Harmon WR, and LB in Pratt sitting out along with their OC who will be there, but took the App State job.

A&M's weakness is pass defense, and finishing games, and that's what they focused on in bowl prep, and I think it makes a difference especially since Jimbo Fisher is very familiar along with DC Mike Elko from their time in the ACC preparing for NC State.  NC State has the veteran QB in Finley heading to the NFL, but they still need to run the ball well to make him successful.  In their 3 losses they ran for just 2.52 ypc, and here they face a similar run defense to Clemson where they scored just 7 points.  A&M ranks 11th in run defense, and that ranking comes while facing a tough opponent rushing offense ranking 45th in rushing yards per carry.  This could create a few third and longs, that will be the difference in this game in my opinion.

NC State's secondary is not very good either.  They faced a very weak SOS ont he season with an opposing QB rating on average around 83, and rank 61st.  They really haven't played any balanced offenses with the exception of Clemson who won 41-7.  A&M has an elite RB in Williams, a growing QB who can make all the throws in Mond, an emerging WR's who are sophomores.  Mond, also a threat to run which makes this offense even more challenging to defend.  The SEC also a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. the ACC This season.