Virginia / Boise U49 3.3*

I really wanted to take Virginia here Friday night, but it’s very hard to do so when they haven’t proved they can win the big games under Mike London.  The talent is there, but still he always seems to get less from his players.  I can’t justify backing Boise State here either as they lost their QB Ryan Finley and will start 2 guys at QB that just took their first snaps last week.  I think Rypien is the guy, but going on the road could be a major challenge with the talent on Virginia’s defense especially in the secondary although they have a ton to prove in that department. 

The under is a good play here as Boise State has been dominating in the front 7 stopping the run, and Virginia really relies on the run and their talented RB Taquan Mizzell who lead the team in receiving yards as well.  He averages less than 4 yards per carry and the fact that he leads this team in receiving just goes to show you how Virginia has not trust in the QB and the talent at receiver.  I expect both teams to lean on the running game tonight and the game is a toss up, but both defenses will dominate the game.

Virginia despite what it looks like on the stat sheet had some success against Notre Dame and that game really gave them a lot of confidence.  They held Notre Dame to 0-10 on third downs and have held opponents to 41.67 TD% in the red zone while Boise went 1-12 on third down at BYU and has held opponents to 33.3% in the red zone.  Both teams will be happy to settle for field goals here and I think the under is a great play with great value here. 

Cincinnati +10 4.4* NCAAF POD

Gunnier Kiel will most certainly play for the Bearcats at Memphis.  I can tell you one thing this line would not have opened up at 10 points before the season, but everyone is super high on Memphis after their exciting season last year and their 3-0 start to this year with their huge win against the MAC's Bowling Green on the road last week.  Memphis also won this game huge last year against Cincinnati on the road, but I expect a much more competitive game this time around. I truly think it's a sell high, buy low situation we are in here today, because the Bearcats are 0-3 ATS, while Memphis is 2-0-1 depending on when you bet on them last week.

Memphis was out gained against Bowling Green, and gave up yards on the ground and through the air as Matt Johnson torched this pass defense for 443 yards and 4TD's.  Gunner Kiel can definitely expect to do the same thing.  Memphis won this game by going 3-3 on 4th downs.  For Cincinnati on the surface they don't look like a great team right now.  They only beat Miami Ohio by 4 and were 21 point favorites, and they lost to Temple at home, but they did lose their QB against Miami Ohio, and against Temple they were +261 yards.  The Bearcats are converting on 56% of their third downs right now while the defense is holding opponents to 25%.  I actually like the Bearcats ability to win the game when it matters.  In the red zone they are allowing 45% TD percentage to go along with their third down success.  This was a team that held opponents on the road to 36% a year ago on third down and 44% in the red zone on TD%.

A lot of hype here in head coach Justin Fuentes, but he did have 17 starters returning last year to 11 this year.  Tough spot for his team to stay up for an entire 4 quarters after a back and forth road game.  Meanwhile Cinci appeared to be looking ahead towards this conference game.

Fresno State +14 2.2* play

I really like Fresno in this game.  First of all they did not play nearly as bad as the final score indicated last week against Ole Miss, but any time you give up 70 points you are going to be huge under dogs the next week.  This is a buy low situation for me, because I think Fresno State will be an improved team under Tim DeRuyter who is a very good coach.  Fresno tough team at home going 18-2 there under DeRuyter.

Utah meanwhile comes into this game off high expectations, and everyone is high on this team being ranked in the top 25.  However, this is a team that just does not have a very good offense, and they are without a DE and their starting QB for this game.  Devonte Booker is their best player at RB, and I just don't see Utah being able to win this game by more than a TD on Booker's back.  I expect Booker who had 31 carries last week to get less action with Oregon up next.  Utah definitely a tough situational spot after playing a huge game last week against their instate rival of Utah State with a look ahead of Oregon.  Utah did win this game 59-27 at home last year, but they are a much better team at home, and were only 13 point favorites in a down year for Fresno.  I think Utah's offense is worse than last year, and I believe Fresno actually improves on their record from last year.  Don't be surprised to see a very tight match up in the second half here. 

Texas +6.5 +101 5.5* NCAAF POD 

Texas was a 9.5 point favorite in this game a month ago, and perception has definitely left us with great value.  Even in Texas win last week they looked terrible, but had a 42-14 lead late which was lost leaving bettors upset with the final 42-28 score.  So now we have 2 teams coming in this is our classic buy low, sell high.  California bettors are extremely happy covering ATS by a margin of 2 TD’s in both of their games, and now they are an incredible 7 point favorite on the road against Texas!  We are already hearing the Charlie Strong should be fired cries, but I actually think Texas is in better shape and I really like their opportunity to pull the upset at home.  I’ll take the better defense + nearly a TD every single time at home.

Finally Tyrone Swoops seems to be gone and Jerred Heard has taken over after looking very very good against Rice with nearly 100 yards rushing and 130 yards passing with 2 TD and 0 interceptions.  Finally Texas might have a balanced offense and they face a Cal team with plenty of issues still on defense especially in the secondary.  San Diego State was able to have success against Cal and actually had the advantage in time of possession and I see Texas being able to do the same thing in this game with their offensive line and talented running backs.

Cal’s offense has looked great, but a red flag is their inability to convert on third downs at just 36%.  This team lost 2 offensive linemen, and they go up against a Texas defense that has a strength in the secondary although it hasn’t showed yet.  Texas was also 10th in sack % on defense last year while Cal was 95th in protecting their QB.  Goff did not play well against the top pass rush units in the PAC 12 a year ago.  There were 4 total teams in the top 25 in pass rush out of the Pac 12 and he avoided 2 of them, and faced 2 at home, but threw just 1 passing TD and had 4 interceptions (Washington/Stanford).  Texas is not there yet, but I think the confidence at home and the chip on their shoulder for being a 7 point dog to Cal will bring out the best.

Southern Miss + 3 3.3* play

I like the Golden Eagles in this one, it really reminds me of the Tulsa pick from last week where we had them +4 going on the road against New Mexico coming away with an easy win.  We have Southern Miss who are in Todd Monkens third year with 15 returning starters including the QB and all 5 offensive lineman.  This team has some solid transfers from Big 12 teams on defense and it has already shown to improve the defense and I really think that could be the difference.

Texas State also has a high flying offense so far, but they played much worse vs. a power 5 conference against Florida State they were -300+ yards, while Southern Miss held their own only -29 yards against Miss State.  Southern Miss is a program with a winning pedigree, 19 straight winning seasons before the last 3 years, and now this is a key game in determining whether they get back to a bowl game.  Texas State has not been in the FBS very long and they beat Southern Miss 2 years ago on the road with a lot of help.  They were -200 yards in that game, but were lucky enough to have 6 turnovers.  I expect a different outcome here on Saturday.

Old Dominion +18.5 3.3* play

I can’t help but play this game here as the match up and situation really favors Old Dominion.  First of all they have already sold out their 20,000 seat stadium as they host a power 5 conference team for the first time and it’s NC State who had 9 wins a year ago.  NC State has one of the easiest schedules this year so I feel like most people just are not up to date with where this team is and that’s giving us plenty of value to play this game at this number.  Old Dominion lost on the road by 12 last year, but played right with NC State until giving up two 4th quarter TD’s that changes the game.

This is a different season for Old Dominion they lost their talented QB, and top WR, but return all 5 along the offensive line along with their talented RB Ray Lawry who is leading the nation in rushing.   This team was able to run on the road last year against NC State as Lawry had 3 rushing TD’s and we have already seen some red flags with NC State early allowing Troy one of the worst teams in the country to average nearly 5 yards per carry in week 1 and were only +145 yards at home.  NC State has issues in the trenches that won’t allow them to dominate against a team that does not get nearly the top tier recruits as they do.  I’m expecting a big day from Lawry as this offense is now running it 50 times a game as opposed to 30 last year.  Bobby Wilder is a very good head coach and seems to get the best out of his players so I’ll take the points especially since this team has started 0-2 ATS, we are certainly catching a bit of line value.

Auburn +7 3.3* play

Auburn’s stock has taken a complete 180 in 2 weeks and after nearly losing to an FCS foe Jacksonville State we have a good amount of value going into LSU.  A few things here, Jeremy Johnson is not as good as we thought, but he can only improve.  I expect Gus Malzahn to really put him in a better position to be successful this week on the road against a very challenging LSU defense.  I actually like that this game will be played at 3:30 instead of at night.

LSU, has their all world RB in Fournette, but they aren’t getting anything from their QB play from Brandon Harris.  I think it’s a huge issue going into this game and I feel Will Muschamp should be able to put together a game plan to stop a one dimensional offense to stay within a TD.  Auburn returns 8 starters from last year on defense, and they held Fournette in check then.  I think he has a big game, but I believe Auburn will be able to win the battle in the red zone which will keep them in this game.  

Bowling Green vs. Memphis Under 78 3.3* play

Both these teams come into this game going over the total in both of their games, and it looks like there is no way this can stay under the total, but I can't help but grab the value here.  The line opened up at 70 total points and has jumped 8 points.  I can't help but take the under now, as I think both of these teams want this game and both offenses have their plays out there at this point.  Don't be surprised to see more defense with a total in the 50's or low 60s.  Memphis is under the total 18-8 in their last 26 road games while Bowling Green is under 21-8 in their last 29 home games.

Central Michigan +7.5 -105 3.3* play 

Too much value in this line despite a lopsided match up a year ago as Syracuse won 40-3, but a lot has changed as the Orange return only 10 starters with almost everyone on their defense having to be replaced.  The MAC has looked extremely good early this season and Central Michigan return their starting QB Cooper Rush who led this offense last year ranking 16th in QB rating and 50th in passing yards per game a year ago which does not look good for the Syarcuse defensive backfield that is extremely green.  Syracuse gave up 373 passing yards to an anemic Wake Forest team a week ago.

Syracuse could also be looking ahead here to hosting LSU next week while Central Michigan also has a big road game they know they need to win these type of games.  CMU was very respectable against an Oklahoma State team in week 1 that returned 16 returnign starters and actually outgained them through 3 quarters with a lead in the third.  Syracuse only returns 10 guys, and already lost their QB.  Syracuse has also had major issues in the red zone which have dated back to last season.  They were just 40% in red zone TD% a year ago and were 0-3 vs. Wake Forest last week.  Central Michigan is much stronger vs. the run returning everyone of note on their defensive line which is where they had struggles a year ago.  Overall I see a better performance from the Chippewas.  You have to also consider they were just coming off a big road win at Purdue before hosting Syracuse and I expect them to really push Syracuse who has looked better in the box score than they actually are.

Army +6 -108 2.2* play

Wake Forest returns 14 starters, but only 6 are seniors, their lowest total since 1944.  These two teams have met 3 times in the last 3 years and Army is home for the 2nd time overall.  Total yards in the series goes to Army who is +7, but is 0-3.  Wake Forest certainly has an under rated defense, but they have not been able to keep this triple option in tack over the years, and they struggled with Syracuse who also lacks a passing threat.

Coming into this season Wake Forest’s offensive line was supposed to be much improved, but I’m doubting it already.  There was not a worse offensive line in the country a year ago as they allowed 48 sacks, and only rushed for 40 yards per game (1.3 ypc).  This year they have already been sacked 7 times and their QB has thrown 3 interceptions.  Army now 0-2, is in a must win situation, and I think Jeff Monken is a very good coach.  I don’t see the improvement early with Wake Forest and for that reason I can only expect a back and forth game.  Army needs win on third down and if they do they win this game.  It will be tight and I’ll take the home dog every time in this situation. 

Louisville +6 5.5* NCAAF POD / Louisville +210 1* play

Louisville has already been thoroughly tested by Auburn in the opener and a much improved Houston team with new head coach Tom Herman.  This is extreme line value as I believe it would have been pk'm if it was in week 1.  Clemson has literally played nobody and still has many red flags in my opinion and do not warrant being nearly a TD favorite on the road especially on a short week.  Two reasons why Louisville has value on this line and why they are large under dogs.  They lost to Auburn who nearly lost to Jacksonville State last week (Auburn clearly looking ahead to LSU), and Louisville lost last week to Houston at home as a double digit favorite, but Houston not getting any credit, and Louisville obviously cares more about their ACC schedule anyway.

This is fresh start for Louisville, and I believe they have the better coach in this one.  Louisville was pretty dominant in ACC play last year by the numbers and although they lost just as much as Clemson they acquired by transfers more depth, and arguably have a better overall team although that has not shown up yet.

Clemson has a real challenge here on the road on a short week vs. a very good coach in Petrino.  Deshawn Watson is getting a ton of hype and has been excellent, but remember this team lost 79 starts along their offensive line and return just 1 starter.  Watson warmed up against Wofford and Appalachian State and this game on the road is about to get much much faster.  Given who they have played there are some really big red flags.  Only 46% success rate on third down (Louisville is better at 48.15%), they turned the ball over 4 times, they are -3 in sacks differential, and they only rushed for 4.16 ypc.  Defensively this team is not an automatic top tier defense.  

Clemson lost 29 total letterman more than any other team in the ACC, and most of them on defense went to the NFL.  The defensive line was hit the hardest, and now we are talking about two key units that you need to have success when you step up in competition.  We are talking about the offensive and defensive line, and it's going to be difficult for Clemson to win the battle in the trenches.  Sure they have the better QB, but Louisville actually out gained this Clemson team on the road last year, but lost because of a fumble in the end zone.  Louisville will win this game if they take care of the ball.  For that reason I'm going to play a bit on the money line as well!

UCLA -30 3.3* PLAY

This is almost a blind play for me as it falls under my formula’s 16-3 ATS record system.  This is Jim Mora’s most talented team, and he hasn’t played a team this bad in his tenure at UCLA since maybe perhaps New Mexico State in 2013 (59-13 W).  UCLA brings back 18 starters, and the biggest question mark was the QB, and that got answered the first week of the season.  5 star QB Josh Rosen looked every bit of the hype as he completed 80% of his passes with 3 TD and 0 INT’s against a very good defense in Virginia.  Virginia was ranked 25th in yards per play allowed last season under 5yds per play, and Rosen and company put up 7.  Virginia’s secondary was supposed to be one of the strengths of the unit and again they really struggled against Rosen and now all of a sudden UCLA is a very scary team.

UNLV is in for a long season, and I think we get value with this line, because they had a pretty good showing against Northern Illinois, a big name program out of the MAC, but this team still returns just 10 starters from a year ago and feature a head coach from the high school ranks with no head coaching experience.  This is a team that was much better last year that lost by 45 to Arizona.

This is almost a blind play for me as it falls under my formula’s 16-3 ATS record system.  This is Jim Mora’s most talented team, and he hasn’t played a team this bad in his tenure at UCLA since maybe perhaps New Mexico State in 2013 (59-13 W).  UCLA brings back 18 starters, and the biggest question mark was the QB, and that got answered the first week of the season.  5 star QB Josh Rosen looked every bit of the hype as he completed 80% of his passes with 3 TD and 0 INT’s against a very good defense in Virginia.  Virginia was ranked 25th in yards per play allowed last season under 5yds per play, and Rosen and company put up 7.  Virginia’s secondary was supposed to be one of the strengths of the unit and again they really struggled against Rosen and now all of a sudden UCLA is a very scary team.

UNLV is in for a long season, and I think we get value with this line, because they had a pretty good showing against Northern Illinois, a big name program out of the MAC, but this team still returns just 10 starters from a year ago and feature a head coach from the high school ranks with no head coaching experience.  This is a team that was much better last year that lost by 45 to Arizona.

Cincinnati -6.5 1.1* Play w/ Teaser Bonus

Indiana -1.5 / Cincinnati -0.5 4.4* Teaser of the Week

I love this teaser we have two teams going on the road after they had huge wins against in state rivals.  Hangover effect along with line value based on perception after their big wins.

Indiana -1.5 – I like this bet, because we fall into a buy low and sell high approach with Indiana almost losing to an FCS team allowing 47 points while FIU won on the road against an in state rival in UCF as a 17 point dog.  I think it’s a lot to ask FIU to travel all the way up here and get a win.  Their defense looked great, but Central Florida’s offense is among the worst and Indiana has weapons and a balanced offense with Nate Sudfeld returning along with the RB transfer in Jordan Howard who rushed for 1600 yards last year for UAB.  The loss of Tevin Coleman won’t hurt as much and I think Indiana will improve vs. the run.  FIU has a very young QB and no wide receivers so I expect Indiana to be able to win this game with offense behind their HC Kevin Wilson.

Cincinnati -0.5 – Temple comes off their biggest win in team history.  There is no way they don’t have some type of hang over in this game against the Bearcats who are favored to win the AAC.  Cinci also features 5 star QB in Gunner Kiel, and he’s behind a much better offensive line and system.  HE returns 76 starts on the offensive line that allowed just 18 sacks last year (1 to Temple), and 45 tackles for loss.  To put it in perspective Penn State allowed 44 sacks, and 99 TFL a year ago.  The Bearcats always have an above average defense and at home they are very stingy in the red zone.  They return everyone in their secondary that gave PJ Walker issues last year and I don’t see Walker being able to do enough to win this game on the road after last week.  Temple’s offensive line also had issues with Penn State allowing 15 tackles for loss last week, and they will have issues running the ball and certainly throwing it.  At the end of the day even if this is a close game like many think Cinci is by far the more efficient team in 

Tulsa +4 3.3* Play

I will take a flyer on Tulsa, a team I really see as making dramatic improvements in 2015 with 16 returning starters and a very exciting offense under Phillip Montgomery, the former Baylor OC.  He gets his entire offensive line back, and returns a QB and the top WR’s on the team.  This was an offense that was 93rd in the country in yards per play and they will be a top 50 team on offense at least.  That’s a major improvement.  It showed in week 1 that this offense can and will be dangerous and traveling across the country to face New Mexico won’t be an issue. 

New Mexico will try to slow the game down with their run first approach which will probably gain over 300 yards, but this is a team that really could not get first downs last year just 29.5% at home a year ago, and they only got into the red zone 30 times overall.  Tulsa got there last year without Montgomery 46 times and 6 times in their first game alone.  Tulsa actually has the better offense here and should be able to come up with the key stops on defense against a very predictable offense in New Mexico.  Tulsa does have talent on defense, and I think they will make enough key stops to win this game outright

Arkansas State +10.5 2.2* play

This team has 15 returning starters to go along with that they have an athletic dual threat QB that can defeat an SEC defense in Freddie Knighten along with a very good DL.  They are used to going on the road to face opponents out of the power 5 conference, but finally they get to host one, and it should be an electric environment as Arkansas State also did multi million dollar renovations to their stadium.  This is a very odd spread from a public perception after Arkansas State lost to USC 6-55 on the road, but a closer look and they were only -100 yards, but had 4 turnovers.  Freddie Knighten is a very good QB, and has rebounded quite well over the course of his career and I expect him to play one of his best games yet in a night game at home.

This has the potential of an upset and one of the best games in Arkansas State’s history, but it will take them winning the turnover battle against Missouri.  

Colorado State +5 5.5* NCAAF POD

Colorado State did lose a lot in the offseason.  They lost their QB to the NFL, their head coach to Florida, and their top 2 tacklers on defense, but they do return 15 starters.   They hire Georgia’s OC Mike Bobo, and return arguably the best WR in the nation in Rashard Higgins along with 4 of the top 5 receivers from last season.  This was a very very good home team last year which I expect to continue, and they will host Minnesota in a game they had to have circled before the season. 

This is a tough spot for Minnesota going on the road and into altitude after facing TCU, a preseason favorite and nearly upsetting them.  Minnesota returns just 12 starters and they lost their best receiving option and runner in David Cobb who had 1629 yards last year.  Jerry Kill is a very good coach, but on the road this team seems to be not as good.  I really like what Colorado State did with their coaching staff and I think the defense will improve with the addition of Tyson Somers and a senior laden defense that should be able to defend against a one dimensional offense like Minnesota.

Colorado State was very good at home on defense in stopping teams on third down (37%) and in the red zone (60% TD’s), and Minnesota just was not the same with a QB rating that went down 18 points on the road, and a rushing attack that also went down by more than 1 yard per carry.  This is a nice value play for us here on Colorado State who will start the game in a no huddle and keep Minnesota off guard this entire game.  I expect them to have an excellent shot at pulling the upset.

UTSA +17.5 2.2* Early Bird Shocker

Larry Coker is an excellent coach, but his opponent Bill Snyder is even better.  However, this is a very challenging spot for Kansas State who return just 12 starters, and Snyder only picked up 1 JUCO transfer in the off season when he is used to picking up 4.  To make matters worse Kansas State lost their starting QB, and best defensive player Safety Dante Barnett.

UTSA also lost a ton of players, but they refilled the positions nicely with transfers and it seems to be already paying dividends as they nearly shocked Arizona on the road 32-42.  They even outgained Arizona significantly and this offense definitely has the ability and athleticism to give Kansas State some fits.  On the flip side Kansas State’s offense is very methodical and will try to slow this game down which makes 17 points a ton of points.  It’s hard not to over react to UTSA’s impressive showing in week 1.  I wish I got this at 21, but I still feel it’s a strong play as UTSA will have 40,000 fans cheering them on at home.  Not very typical of a Conference USA program.

Florida Atlantic +19 3.3* 

We saw a similar story last Friday with Michigan State going to Western Michigan as a 17-18 point favorite.  In state game, and big opportunity for the non-major to get some exposure with the major program possibly looking ahead to their next game (Oregon).  Miami is not nearly as well coached, and are looking ahead to Nebraska whom they lost to a year ago.  Florida Atlantic has enough fire power on offense behind a veteran and efficient QB in Jacquez Johnson to give Miami a scare.  Johnson had a 167.7 QB rating in 2014 at home with 12 TD to just 1 INT.

Miami only brings back 11 starters, and loses 3 guys on the offensive line.  This team was 1-4 on the road last year, and they will be playing in front of a sold out crowd as FAU will host a power 5 team for the first time ever.  Can the unthinkable happen?  Probably not, but FAU should be set up to play their best game of the year.

LA Tech / WKU Over 60.5 3.3* play

This total has dropped down since opening at 67 and there is just too much value here for me to pass up on.  First of all we are getting value here, because Western Kentucky beat a Western Kentucky team 14-12 last week, but what is hidden in that game is the fact that they were -150 yards and held Vanderbilt to 2 scores in 5 red zone trips.  Which is amazing and lucky at the same time, but it hid the fact that Western Kentucky's defense is still very very bad, and that Vanderbilt really does not have a clue... Oh poor Derek Mason.

LA Tech comes into this game on a short week and I really feel like that benefits the offenses and not the defenses.  LA Tech has an excellent secondary, and held Western Kentucky to 10 points last year at home, but this was a different defense on the road last year, and they have to replace almost everyone in their front 7 along with their talented defensive coordinator Manny Diaz who moved onto Miss State.

Both teams will score into the 30's in this one, as they both have very good QB's.  Former Florida 4 star QB Jeff Driskel takes over and he looked pretty good against a bad defense last week throwing 4 TD and 0 INT's, and Brandon Doughty obviously getting a ton of recognition in the off season.  I expect him to rebound and put up some points today.  Western Kentucky was +1.2 yards per play at home vs. away games last year and they scored 45+ points in 4 of their 6 home games and 35 in each one with an amazing 80% TD percentage in the red zone.  LA Tech also very good in the red zone at coming away with 7 instead of 3 (72% on the year), while their defense was excellent at home 30% TD allowed, they struggled on the road 65%, and add in a new front 7 along with a new defensive coordinator and I'm predicting it won't be the same at least early.  If you don't think we are getting value last year's total was 69 and it was played at LA Tech.

Virginia Tech +14.5 3.3* play

Shop around, and grab 14.5 if you can.  Ohio State comes in with more hype than any team in the country, along with the "revenge" factor on many bettors' minds.  I just do not see a 14 point spread here as something Ohio State will cover on the road in hostile environment on national TV.  There are several reasons why one would like Ohio State in this game, I mean they return 14 starters and are completely loaded at each level on both offense and defense, but suspensions hurt them for this game, and so does the fact that they are returning champions.  I also don't really see this as a revenge game considering Ohio State went on to win the national championship and this game happened back in week 2 of 2014.

Virginia Tech should be pumped up for this game and they return 16 starters.  A defense that held the Ohio State offense to just 327 yards in their own building.  Ohio State's offensive line is much improved, but Virginia Tech was breaking in a lot of 1st time starters and they will have the deepest defensive line in the country with the additional of Maddy coming back after missing the 2014 season.  Both teams have the weakness of run defense, but I'll give the edge to Virginia Tech there considering they are at home.  Ohio State lost their 2nd and 3rd best ends, and Joey Bosa will miss this game.  Ohio State was 89th in power success rate and 77th at stuff rate in run defense and Virginia Tech has 2 under rated running backs in JC Coleman and Marshawn Williams.

In the end this is a close game.  I may hedge my bet a little with live in game betting if I can get Ohio State under a TD, because Virginia Tech should get out to an early lead.  Although Tech is 18-1 in their last 19 home openers.

Purdue +7.5 3.3* 

I will take Purdue here in their third year under Darrell Hazell I think they will be involved in some close games against teams with equal talent.  They do not have a bigger game next week so to get their season going this is the game they need to win.  In 2013 this team was terrible, but there were noticeable differences in 2014 as this team improved to -241 ypg in conference play to -93 and were involved in many close games against Big Ten foe.  I'm most excited about this offensive line that returns everyone and improved from 104th adjusted line yards in 2013 to 47th.  They should be even better this year and I expect them to be able to run to set up the pass here today on the road against a vulnerable Marshall run defense which was mediocre last year.  Purdue's defense also improved last year from 83rd in 2013 to 53rd, they are young and play very good fundamentally and should be a bend but don't break type defense.  I think Marshall may have troubles in the red zone considering they break in a new QB.

Marshall loses their 4 year starting QB in Cato, an 1100 yard WR and 11 other starters.  They will still be very good and have a ton of talent at the skill position.  I expect them to turn to Devon Johnson early at RB and that should lean to a lower scoring game.  Keep in mind Marshall did not play a power 5 school last year at all, and their stock is still sky high off their season a year ago.  I just think Purdue has a ton to improve, and their stock is heading in that direction, but hidden in the Big Ten.  Nobody seems to see Purdue's improving, and the public perception is "same old Purdue,"  but I think this team is coming into the right situation today and will have a shot at the upset. 

Southern Miss +21.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

If there was ever a shot for Southern Miss to prove that they are turning this program around it's tonight.  Dan Mullen, HC of Miss State is already crying about the game start, and that defenitely trickles down to the players.  I believe Mullen is possibly the worst coach in the SEC, and I picked Miss State to finish last in the talented SEC West.  Miss State returns just 7 overall starters, but it feels like more, because they have the face of their program in Dak Prescott returning, but this team really struggled down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games, and I don't know that they can just hit that switch in game 1 in an instate road game with so many new guys filling in at new positions.  

Southern Miss on the other hand is definitely on the rise.  Todd Monkens 3rd year should pay dividends and people forget that this program had 19 straight winning seasons before their 4-32 record over the last 3 years.  Southern Miss has 15 guys returning, including their QB and all 5 of their offensive linemen.  This team should be much improved and I actually like their rebuilt defense which is filled in with transfers, but solid ones.  To start the season they will have two 300lb linemen in Quincy Russel and Andrew Bolton transfers from Texas and Kansas.  I also think Dak Prescott will be surprised if he tries to attack Southern Miss backfield which is under rated.

Miss State also has LSU up next, and can't be taking this team seriously.  We saw similar results last night with a better version of in state match ups between Michigan State and Western Michigan.  We are getting a worse power 5 school, and more points to work with and I love our chances here.  Western Michigan lost by just 13 and were driving late to pull within a score.

Eastern Mich + 5 3.3* play

Call me crazy, but i like Eastern Michigan to pull the upset even here.  This is not an easy game for Old Dominion to just walk into and walk out with a win.  First of all Old Dominion lost the face of their program in Taylor Heinickie, the do all QB and replace him with a red shirt freshmen in Shuler.  Shuler will be find in the end, but has to make his debut on the road on grey truf, and against Eastern Michigan's LB's who in my opinion are the best in the MAC.  They even have the intimidating names of good LB's in Great Ibe, Anthony Zappone, and Hunter Matt.

For Eastern Michigan this is a chance to get the season going in the right direction and I believe Chris Creighton is an excellent coach and he now has an experience QB in Reggie Bell, who can beat you with his feet and through the air.  Old Dominion has to replace 4 guys in their front 7 on defense and were not good on defense to begin with last year.  I expect Eastern Mich to be able to stay in this game and have a chance to win it late.  In last year's game on  the road at Old Dominion they were down just 10-3 in the 4th before allowing a punt return for a TD.  They also fumbled it 5 times int hat game, and were -18 in turnover margin.  The Philsteele laws say that a team wit double digit negative TO margin improves the next year 79% of the time dating back to 1991.  They have all the signs of that happening.

Eastern Mich has depth issues and special teams issues for sure, but Old Dominion's special teams have not been great either 127th last year, and I don't see Eastern Michigan's depth issues being a factor in week 1.  Old Dominion also is looking ahead to week 2 when they face Norfolk State at home, whose campus is 5 miles away.  I think there is an excellent chance Eastern Mich can steal this game or at least cover the spread.

I like the under in this game, but our official play is a teaser:

Penn St -0.5/U50 4.4* Teaser

I actually love this play, because these lines have moved so far the other way from the opening line that we have tremendous value here.  It seriously feels like a 10 point teaser as the total has jumped from 39 to 44, and the spread which opened at 14 has dropped down as far as -6.5 in some places.  Naturally we want to get off some key numbers and we certainly achieve that here with this teaser.

Temple has 10 guys returning on a defense that was ranked 18th in yards per play, while Penn State's defense ranked 3rd, albeit against a tougher schedule out of the Big 10.  Both offenses will still have major issues and concerns in the trenches, and I see this game very low scoring especially in the first half as each team feels each other out.  Penn State ranked 120th in yards per play while Temple ranked 115th.  Neither team is going to try to light up the scoreboard and this should be a very well played defensive battle from two schools in PA.  In the end this Penn State team is well coached by James Franklin, and they sure as hell don't want to be the team that breaks the 31 straight wins over Temple.  They have had to hear a lot about Temple's potential and returning players, but at the end of the day they just have more talent on offense.

I'm not sure Temple will be able to move the ball much, and both teams were dominating in the red zone on defense (allowed less than 45% TD percentage), and struggled on offense (less than 50% TD% success).  So we should see a few field goals which will give Temple a chance to cover the overall spread, but keep this under the total.  Penn State will rely on their key offensive play makers in the second half to keep drives alive and win this game.  I expect RB Akeel Lynch, WR DaeSean Hamilton, and TE Kyle Carter all to make contributions.

Northwestern +12 3.3* Early Bird Special 

This is a very early start for a west coast team coming to play with a lot of question marks after losing 9 starters on defense.  Northwestern has had back to back dissapointing seasons, but there were some good moments last year like when they beat NOtre Dame and Washington.  They will have a 4star QB in Clayton Thorson starting and he'll hand it off to returning RB Justin Jackson.  They are 7-1 in their last 8 home openers.  Their defense was very good last year and will be even better and more athletic this year.  They have All Big-10 candidates at each level including DE Dean Lowry, LB - Anthony Walker, and CB NIck Van House.  Fitzgerald is a defensive guy and he has his best defense yet.

Stanford comes in and their offense will be better, but I don't see them beating a defense like this by double digits.  Kevin Hogan has been around forever, but has yet to prove he can win on the road.  Last year Stanford QB's had a 167 QB rating in wins and 113 in losses, and their QB rating on the road was 30 points lower than at home.  The run defense also started to slip on the road last year and now having to replace 9 guys is just too much to ask.  They may very well win this game, but two teams that love to play in close battles.  I'm going to back the team with a good defense getting double digits at home every time.  Stanford also last year was a team that could not finish teams down the stretch like they were able to in previous years.  Stanford ranked top 40 in adjusted offense in the first two quarters of a game, but in the bottom 40 in the last 2 quarters of the game.

Hawaii +7.5 4.4* POD

Both of these teams head into the 2015 season with high hopes for improving and there are a lot of things to like about each for achieving that goal, but I think Hawaii really needs this game more, and Colorado's defense could have a hard time in this game.  Hawaii brings in USC transfer QB Max Wittek to take over an offense that returns 2 of their top receivers in Pedroza and Kemp and they bring in an offensive coordinator for the first time under Norm Chow.  Chow must really be a control freak, but he's on the hot seat and knows he had to do this.  Don Bailey comes over and he will feature an uptempo attack that he ran at FCS Idaho State.  Bailey brought Idaho State out of nowhere and they ranked 1st in passing offense and 2nd in total offense among FCS teams.  This offense will undoubtedly improve and they'll face Colorado whose ranked 116th, 110th, and 124th the last 3 years in yards per play allowed.

Hawaii was actually better than their record indicated last year with 4 net closes losses of 10 points.  They lost to open last year to Washington out of the PAC 12 by 1 point, and they'll face a Colorado team that is not as good as the Washington team was.  Colorado does have a very good QB, and WR tandem, but they showed an inability to close games last year and quickly ran out of options.  Hawaii's defense should be exciting in the back 7, and the DL will again have depth issues, but this is game 1 and this team really needs a win when you consider they have road games against Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise following this game. 

Michigan +5 5.5* NCAAF POD

I love the value we are getting with Michigan here on the road against Utah and I'm going to go ahead and make it an official max play.  First of all these two teams have a lot more in common then you'd think.  Strong defenses that will rely on the running game to win a game.  Both will play in a lot of close games and I can't imagine Michigan not being within a field goal here.  Utah's offense took some big hits in terms of playmakers and they go up against a very experienced Michigan defense.  I expect it to be a very low scoring game.  Utah's strength of a pass rush should not play a part on Thursday night I just don't see Iowa transfer Jake Rudock being asked to do a ton other than not turning the ball over.  Michigan was -16 in turnover margin last year and are among the teams that have a great chance at improving.  Since 1991 teams with -10 or more TO margin 79% improved or stayed the same.  The additiona of Jake Rudock from Iowa - 16TD / 5 INT will almost certainly guarantee that.

Utah also did not have the home field advantage it previously had losing to Washington State and Oregon last year and beating USC by 3.  Utah has a bigger game the following week against in state rival Utah State.  For Michigan this is a bigger game and Jim Harbaugh's coming out party.  It's rare that you will get a team like Michigan with an elite defense as a 5 point under dog on the road to open the season against a team whose offense returns just 6 starters and ranked 98th in yards per play on offense.  Bottom line... 

Michigan's defense is stronger - top 10 run defense home and away, they both have similar offenses with QB's that did not turn the ball over last year, and both can stop the run, but I believe Michigan is just a bit better on defense, and running the ball, and the coaching has improved significantly with a team that has always had more talent.  Jim Harbough in his past has taken a bit of time improving his teams, but his last two stops in college were San Diego taking them 7-4, and then 22-2 after, STanford was 16-40 before Harbough got there then went 9-15 and 20-6.  However, Harbough never got this much talent right away and I think the results should be truly amazing with a ton of close games because of this defense.  

Vanderbilt pk 3.3* ODDSMAKER ERROR

Well I'm jumping on Vandy on opening night, and I expect I'll be in the minority, but that's okay.  I'm about winning money and I see value in this line ans so do my formulas.  Derek Mason is coming into his second year at Vandy, and his schedule is extremely tough.  This may actually be one of the winnable games on the schedule.  Vanderbilt has serious questions on offense, but this is a very nice game to open up to as Western Kentucky was 119th in yards per play allowed.  You won't find a team on Vanderbilt's schedule last year that was as bad.

Vanderbilt will get 18 starters back from last year including 93 career starts along the offensive line. When this team was able to run the ball they put up points in 2014, and I expect that will be the focus here on Thursday which they should be able to do with Ralph Webb returning after a quality year and the fact that WKU allowed 5.35 ypc on the road and they allowed a 163 QB rating.  I look for Vanderbilt to keep the ball away from the Hilltoppers explosive and talented offense led by Brandon Doughty. 

Speaking of Doughty, there has been a lot of hype from his season a year ago and he has the majority of everyone back, but I see this offensive line having some issues on Thursday night after losing their best lineman to graduation.  I also think we have value considering Doughty is getting a lot of press, and this is a very similar match up that Vanderbilt had last year with Old Dominion and a senior QB Taylor Heincke.  Vanderbilt won that game comfortably, and are 16-3 in their last 4 years in non-conference games.

Ohio State +7 bovada 5.5* MAX  POD / Ohio State +185 2* bonus

Oregon and Ohio State are very similar teams in statistical breakdowns.  I think both of their scores are a bit misleading from the semifinals.  Both were +110 or more yards over their opponent, but as we all know now Ohio State did it against a better opponent than Oregon.  We are still catching a TD dog at many books here and I'm even going to play Ohio State on the money line for a 2* bonus.  The Big Ten has gotten crap all season long and then it looked worse when Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech.  However, this bowl season the Big Ten has some pretty singificant wins on their resume including Michigan State over Baylor, Rutgers over UNC in blowout fashion, Penn State over BC, Wisconsin beat Auburn and Nebraska hung with USC and lost by 3.

I watched the entire Oregon vs Florida State game 2 times this week after watching it live and Florida State really moved the ball up and down the field and had over 500 yards of offense.  I see no reason why Ohio State can not do the same thing.  People keep doubting Cardale Jones, but Urban Meyer has always had a top QB and he's prove that he puts them in a system or scenarios that have a long history of success.  Jones did not seem to be phased one bit in the game against mighty Alabama while if you go back and watch the first half of the Oregon game, Marcus Mariotta really took a while to get going and in the first half he really was not off to a great start.  This Florida State team flat out gave up after Cook fumbled the ball twice and from there it was just a domino effect.  Cook was having a great game as well, but after he was benched the Florida State offense really did not have the same impact.  Ezekial Elliot is not going to fumble multiple times and Urban Meyer will be sure as hell they don't turn the ball over 5 times or allow 35 points off turnovers.  I still think if you had Oregon play Florida State again I would take the points again because this was a ball game until the shit hit the fan with the turnovers.

A few things here - Ohio State is a much better defense ranking 11th in yards per play allowed compared to Florida State ranking 66th and even Oregon at 53.  Now Oregon does have the better offense, but I can see Ohio State controlling this game on the ground.  And no it's not because I think Oregon is "soft."  I hope to hell we don't have to hear that brought up all game again.  In the end I'm taking the far better coach with the far better track record as a TD dog.  I'll also take them on the money line and hedge in live game if we need to.

Arkansas State +3.5 4.4* POD

I like Arkansas State here you really can't bet a MAC team as a favorite right now as they have gone 1-3 in Bowl games in a year the conference has been way down.  Sure Toledo has fire power, but overall they did it against a little bit of an easier schedule.  I'm impressed with what Arkansas State did earlier in their schedule when they were fresh in stopping the run against 3 good teams in Tennessee, Miami, and Utah State.  Their offense even ran the ball for 100+ yards on Utah State in their win which is tough to do.  When you look at it Arkansas State is a balanced offense they can run and they can throw behind the arm of Fredi Knighten who is also a running QB to go along with home run hitting RB Mike Gordon.  I don't know that Toledo has faced an offense this balanced all year. 

When Arkansas State has faced a passing defense this bad they have put up points, 52, 40, 44, and 68 and while Toledo will have their points too I think Arkansas State will have a better time converting and keeping drives going.  Arkansas State's defense has allowed 34% conversions compared to Toledo's 44% and 60% out of conference.  Arkansas State also has forced 27 turnovers while Toledo has only had 12 and 8 of their 11 opponents have had a higher QB rating than their season average.  The good passing teams had exceptional games against this defense and Knighten is very good and has not given the ball up too much.  Arkansas State is also in a familiar bowl making their 4th appearance in the GoDaddy Bowl so this should be a piece of cake for them having defeated 2 MAC teams the last 2 years. The Sun Belt has also won their other two bowl games with Georgia Southern and UL Lafayette.  

East Carolina +248 2.5* play

I'm just going to take the Pirates on the money line here.  They are a more complete and cohesive unit that is getting downgraded here because they lost to Central Florida on a hail mary.  It was just poor coaching and clock management otherwise we would be looking at an East Carolina team that would be a 4 or 5 point under dog, but instead we get them at a TD.  I just don't see Florida's motivation here to win this game either.  Florida may even be using this game as a tryout for some players while East Carolina's senior laden group is going to try to win another big game over a big time program. 

East Carolina already went on the road out of conference play and gave South Carolina all they had early in the season and they defeated Virginia Tech along with North Carolina out of the ACC.  This is a team with a lot of offensive fire power and a defense that can come up big in key spots as well.  

Wash/Okl St U57 4.4* NCAAF POD

This total is just far too high and man may think that Oklahoma State's offense is turning the corner with 38 points vs. Oklahoma and 28 vs. Baylor, two solid defenses, but in both games they had 14 entering the 4th quarter.  Washington is just too strong up front to allow something like that and they are well coached by Chris Petersen.  Washington's defense has 3 All-American's up front and Oklahoma State's offensive line has yielded 37 sacks during the regular season.  Expect Danny Shelton to give this offense a lot of issues along with Kikaha and Hudson off the edge.  This is a team that put up 9 on TCU and 7 vs. Texas the only 2 teams in the top 30 in yards per play allowed.  Washington is 27th.

On the flip side Washington put up some big points at the end of the year also inflating this total in my opinion, but their offense is ranked 96th in adjusted offense.  This is a team that has not beaten a bowl team all year long, but they have won the games they were supposed to.  They will run the ball 60% of the time which should shorten the game quite a bit considering Washington's strong and experienced offensive line will create issues for Oklahoma State as well.  Look for RB Dwayne Washington to have a strong day running the ball, but when they get into the red zone they will have issues.  Mike Gundy is an excellent coach and his players do not give up.  They have played well in the red zone all year long allowing just 57% conversions.  Washington's offense has had little success here only scoring TD's on 52% of their opportunities and 36% over their last 8 games.  I can easily see Washington winning this game and even getting to 30 points, but their defense is just too strong and Oklahoma State will be starting a QB with little experience.  

Kansas State +1 2.2* PLAY / OVER 61 3.3* PLAY

This has to be the most exciting game of the day on Friday between the Big 12 and the PAC 12 both conference have had their ups and downs this bowl season.  I think both of these teams are pretty even statistically and with their strength of schedules and neither team owns a significant advantage in travel time.  Given all of that I look at which team is better coached and I have to go with Snyder and Kansas State who are penalized much less and are +9 in TO margin compared to -1 for UCLA.  UCLA had some bad games this year and some bad losses while Kansas State lost the games they were supposed to lose.  They lost to Auburn, TCU and Baylor which at the moment does not look so bad.

I like the over despite it being at 61 because I don't see either defense being able to truly hold the other opponent under 30 points.  UCLA has a balanced offense with the emergence of Paul Perkins and this team has scored 28+ in all of their 3 games with extra rest.  Kansas State's defense has been solid but not elite.  They are good at stopping the run, but will have issues against Brett Hundley. For Kansas State they lost when they could not run the ball averaging 1.99 in their losses and 4.33 in their wins.  I took a detailed look at whether or not they should be able to run and UCLA ranked 45th vs. the run, but looking at the adjusted rankings they are probably a bit worse.  7 opponents ran for more yards per carry than their season average.  It's not like UCLA can stack up against the run either as Jake Waters has been one of the best at QB this year and has arguably the best WR to throw to in Tyler Lockett.  With all of that said you can see Kansas State being able to run for more than 3.5 yards per carry and in those cases they have scored 31+ points in all 7 occasions with an average of 45.7 points per game.  Neither team really thrives on stopping opponents on 3rd down or in the red zone so we have two offenses that will decide this game from start to finish. 

Kansas State +1 2.2* PLAY / OVER 61 3.3* PLAY

This has to be the most exciting game of the day on Friday between the Big 12 and the PAC 12 both conference have had their ups and downs this bowl season.  I think both of these teams are pretty even statistically and with their strength of schedules and neither team owns a significant advantage in travel time.  Given all of that I look at which team is better coached and I have to go with Snyder and Kansas State who are penalized much less and are +9 in TO margin compared to -1 for UCLA.  UCLA had some bad games this year and some bad losses while Kansas State lost the games they were supposed to lose.  They lost to Auburn, TCU and Baylor which at the moment does not look so bad.

I like the over despite it being at 61 because I don't see either defense being able to truly hold the other opponent under 30 points.  UCLA has a balanced offense with the emergence of Paul Perkins and this team has scored 28+ in all of their 3 games with extra rest.  Kansas State's defense has been solid but not elite.  They are good at stopping the run, but will have issues against Brett Hundley. For Kansas State they lost when they could not run the ball averaging 1.99 in their losses and 4.33 in their wins.  I took a detailed look at whether or not they should be able to run and UCLA ranked 45th vs. the run, but looking at the adjusted rankings they are probably a bit worse.  7 opponents ran for more yards per carry than their season average.  It's not like UCLA can stack up against the run either as Jake Waters has been one of the best at QB this year and has arguably the best WR to throw to in Tyler Lockett.  With all of that said you can see Kansas State being able to run for more than 3.5 yards per carry and in those cases they have scored 31+ points in all 7 occasions with an average of 45.7 points per game.  Neither team really thrives on stopping opponents on 3rd down or in the red zone so we have two offenses that will decide this game from start to finish. 

[b]Tennessee -2.5 -120 4.5* play [/b]

I like the Vols here in this spot.  I don't put a tremendous weight on strength of schedule, but this match up goes over exactly that, because we simply can not ignore the differences here.  First off I mentioned in many of my write ups yesterday that the Big Ten is not as bad as people were saying and they went 3-1 yesterday and were under dogs in all 4 games.  The 3 wins were the top 3 Big Ten teams and I do think the rest of the Big Ten is just not that good.  Iowa for instance had the 80th ranked strength of schedule and who did they beat?  Only 2 bowl teams and one was Pitt, the youngest team in the country early in the year and the other was Illinois who might have been the worst bowl team.

Tennessee on the other hand had to play Ole Miss and Alabama from the SEC West, and they played Oklahoma in non-conference play which was good for the 11th toughest schedule.  This is an extremely under rated defense that is going to give Iowa a ton of issues.  I think the extra practice time is going to benefit Tennessee the most who has more talent that have progressed throughout the year.  Butch Jones is also a solid coach that is starting to build this team the way he was hired to do so.  The biggest thing I have uncovered from looking at this game is that Tennessee should be able to run and stop the run which is the biggest key to the game. 

Tennessee 4.08 ypc in their wins and 2.51 ypc in their losses.  Now this is where their SOS comes into play having faced 7 top 50 run stopping units 6 of those 7 were actually top 30 and they went 1-6 against them.  Now they'll face Iowa who is ranked 72nd vs. the run.  Iowa typically known for their run defense but this year it was their pass defense and I think Tennessee will get some easy third downs to pick up here.  I think it also helps to have Dobbs, a running QB and the fact they are going up against a weaker run defense for a change.  On the flip side Iowa 4.41 ypc in wins and 3.13 in losses while Tennessee is 52nd vs. the run and that won't impress you they did face 7 top 50 rushing units this year with their schedule while Iowa's 87th ranked rushing until face just 2 teams ranked in the top 75 in rushing defense.  Yet they still were only able to average 3.9 ypc and they lost to both who were capable of stopping the run.  That typically made Iowa turn to the pass 54% of the time which is not like them.  Tennessee also has a very good secondary that has more interceptions than TD's allowed.  Their front also is ranked 9th in sack %.  Iowa was -5 in turnover margin and I see the ingredients for them to lose that battle again here today.  

Ohio State +8 2.2* play

Florida State +8 5.5* NCAAF POD

Oregon has been extremely impressive to close out the year and probably deserve to be more than a TD favorite, but this is new territory for Florida State who haven’t lost in 2 seasons.  They have not been a dog since 2011 at Clemson and I think they will be extra motivated because of it.  Not only does Florida State have more talent as far as more guys will be NFL draft picks, but I think they have the better QB for a big game like this.  I’m still not sold on what Marcus Mariota can do in a big game and this is his chance to prove his doubters wrong.  Winston has proved it and he should be extra motivated in this spot as a big dog facing the QB that won the Heisman this year.  For Winston everything is behind him as far as what happened off the field and he gets to lead his team against the West Coast guys in Pasadena.

Florida State just never won with glamour this year and that’s the biggest difference between these two teams.  Many feel the ACC is down, but I have to disagree when you look at how they have performed this bowl season.  Boston College played well against Penn State, Duke covered and gave Arizona State who similarly to Oregon was a TD favorite, Clemson just absolutely dominated Oklahoma and Virginia Tech got a nice win as well.  Now North Carolina was a bad team from the start, but there were highlights of a good team at times. 

It’s also worth noting that Florida State’s offense has opened up with the emergence of Dalvin Cook and the fact that they ran the ball against some pretty good defenses down the stretch including, 5.77 ypc vs. Louisville, 6.00 vs. Miami, 4.41 vs. Florida, and 5.42 vs. Georgia Tech.  Winston won’t have to do it on his own, but having balance from Cook makes him all that more dangerous.  At the end of the day 8.5 points is far too much with Winston in control and a defense that can make plays.  Oregon’s defense has had some pretty bad moments at time this year too and even if Oregon gets a head Florida State is always good for the back door cover.

Wisconsin +7 -120 buy hook

Wisconsin has a huge chip on their shoulder after getting torched in the Big Ten Championship and it makes sense as Gary Anderson was obviously on his way out back to the West Coast.  The legendary Barry Alvarez – 8-4 in bowls will take over here and should have his team ready for a tough match up against Auburn.  The perception of the Big 10 is way down and I’ll take the extra value I’m getting because of it.  Is the Big 10 really as bad as we think?

Michigan State gave Oregon everything they had earlier in the year on the road and easily could have won that game despite the final score.  Wisconsin fell apart in the 4th quarter against LSU to start the year, Nebraska played well vs. USC and they also beat Miami.  Northwestern beat Notre Dame on the road while the Irish defeated LSU yesterday.  Indiana even joined in the mix and beat an SEC East Champion in their own building.  Iowa also beat Pitt on the road an ACC team.  So is the Big 10 perception warranted?  I don’t think it is and I think this will be a big rebound game for a solid Wisconsin team.

First of all Wisconsin defense was not as bad as it looked in the Big Ten Championship game and they are the better defense here today.  Both defenses will have a hard time stopping the run here and that’s bad news for Auburn who is allowing 5.55 in their losses compared to 3.21 in their wins.  Wisconsin has run on basically everyone and I don’t think it will be a problem here today as Auburn’s defense has allowed 30+ points in 6 straight games.

Miss State -1 / Michigan State +8.5 – 4.4* Teaser of the week!

Miss State first has extra time to prepare for Georgia Tech’s triple option which just has not done well in bowl games.  Actually looking back Paul Johnson is just 3-6 in bowl games and over his last 6 the offense just has not produced with negative ppg marks compared to season averages of 18, 12, 7, 21, 19, and 20.  Miss State’s defense is weak vs. the pass, but very good against the run so this will be a huge advantage for them on New Years.

Georgia Tech is getting a bit too much credit for their last 3 games of beating Clemson, beating Georgia, and taking Florida State to the wire in a 35-37 loss.  Georgia Tech has given over 5 yards per carry to a lot of teams this year including Georgia, Florida State, Pitt, Duke, Miami in fact 8 teams had 4.97 or better and the reason it is relevant is that’s the key to Miss State’s offense. They ran for 3.56 ypc in losses and 5.63 in wins with 27 TD’s.  Dak Prescott will have his team ready here and the defense is one of the best in the red zone.  What does that mean? Georgia Tech is going to be settling for field goals which is something they absolutely cannot do.  Dan Mullen is also 3-1 in bowl games.

Michigan State – The Spartans have been great over the last 3 years in bowl games beating Stanford, TCU, and Georgia.  I find a ton more value teasing this game past a TD.  I don’t see Baylor being as focused for this game thinking they were gipped.  How about Michigan State who has only lost to 2 of the 4 teams in the college football playoff.  Michigan State has the better defense and has proven it in big games.  Over the last 3 bowl games D’antonio’s defenses have held opponents under their season averages by an average of 9 points.  Baylor on the other hand gave up 52 and 56 points in 2 of their last 3 bowl games.

The biggest difference in this game will be Michigan State’s offensive line.  They are better than Baylor’s and Michigan State’s offense is one of the more under rated units in the country.  They are ranked 22nd in opponent adjusted rankings and Connor Cook can spin it with the best of them and the running game can be elite.  I just can’t trust Baylor and their 65th ranked strength of schedule and the fact that they just “want this game.”  That’s not enough and the 8.5 point value with Miss State given the bowl histories for both teams gives me confidence.

MISS ST -6 1.1* FREE PLAY

Miss State first has extra time to prepare for Georgia Tech’s triple option which just has not done well in bowl games.  Actually looking back Paul Johnson is just 3-6 in bowl games and over his last 6 the offense just has not produced with negative ppg marks compared to season averages of 18, 12, 7, 21, 19, and 20.  Miss State’s defense is weak vs. the pass, but very good against the run so this will be a huge advantage for them on New Years.

Georgia Tech is getting a bit too much credit for their last 3 games of beating Clemson, beating Georgia, and taking Florida State to the wire in a 35-37 loss.  Georgia Tech has given over 5 yards per carry to a lot of teams this year including Georgia, Florida State, Pitt, Duke, Miami in fact 8 teams had 4.97 or better and the reason it is relevant is that’s the key to Miss State’s offense. They ran for 3.56 ypc in losses and 5.63 in wins with 27 TD’s.  Dak Prescott will have his team ready here and the defense is one of the best in the red zone.  What does that mean? Georgia Tech is going to be settling for field goals which is something they absolutely cannot do.  Dan Mullen is also 3-1 in bowl games.

13-1 ON TEASERS IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL THIS YEAR!!

Don't miss out on what I am teasing this game with.  You can get it as a bonus play when you pick up my 4* winner in the Wisconsin vs. Auburn battle!

[b]Arizona -3 2.2* play [/b]

I am going to go with the class of the PAC12 here instead of Boise who went through a cup cake schedule.  The one time they stepped up in competition they lost 31-13 to Ole Miss.  The Mountain West is also in a down year and have gone 2-4 in the bowl games and in most cases have not even been close.  Look at Colorado State arguably the second best team they got blown out by Utah in what was supposed to be a close game.  I also don't see Boise under their new coach being the same type of team, and I think their QB will struggle going up against Arizona which is not an option when you have to put up points on the board. Boise plays San Diego State each year who employs a similar 3-3-5 defense and in both years their QB has struggled with a 121 QB rating and a 115. Boise State in wins this year has a 173 QB rating, but in loses Grant Hentrick has a 104 rating with 3 TD passes and 9 interceptions.  Arizona's 3-3-5 defense has to be the best in the nation led by the best linebacker in America in Scooby Wright.

I get Boise has been great in these games in the past and I do see them getting out to an early lead considering Arizona is without their starting center for the first half, but Arizona should be able to runt he ball with Nick Wilson which is the biggest key.  Boise was 47th vs. the run this year vs. a weak schedule allowing 4.5+ yards per carry 5 times.  Arizona 5.00 ypc in wins and 2.82 ypc in losses, but strength of schedule is the biggest reason as we already saw one PAC 12 team destroy a Mountain West team 45-10.

Ole Miss +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD; U56 2.2* BONUS

Losing to Arkansas on the road, Auburn at home in a game they should have won and losing by 3 at LSU is nothing to be ashamed by.  This is a team that beat Alabama and Miss State both were ranked high when they played them.  This is a team that also played Boise State in non-conference play and a total of 9 bowl teams.  TCU put up video game like numbers along the way, but after I saw Texas lose to Arkansas, and West Virginia to Texas A&M, and Oklahoma to Clemson I am just not sold on the Big 12 right now.  Now TCU iss a different animal with a team that can play offense and defense, but in reality they had the 55th toughest schedule. Where is this team's big win?  West Virginia?  Who beat Baylor by 14? To my knowledge TCU has not played a defense that is even close to the talent level of Ole Miss. 

Ole Miss is ranked 6th in adjusted defensive rank and is probably even better with rest.  This team was banged up at the end of the year which will happen when you go through a schedule like theirs, but now they will benefit more from the time off along with the 297 mile trip compared to TCU who has to travel 750 miles.  Ole Miss is definitely pumped up to be in this bowl game against TCU and the public has been playing them hard with one simple reason. "This team is pissed it did not get into the playoff."  Of course they are and that's not a reason to bet them.  I think mentally it's more difficult to prepare for a big game like this when you think you should be playing on New Years instead.  TCU is an elite offense right?  Then why have they only converted 41% of their third downs and 60% of their red zone attempts into TD's?  I'm not buying it and an Ole Miss defense with a month to prepare should play better. 

I like this total, because both defenses are elite and at their best in the red zone.  Ole Miss and TCU will try to run the ball and each coach has been great in bowl games so I expect this game to stay close and relatively low scoring.  TCU had 36 forced turnovers this year which they relied on quite a bit to put up points and now they go up against Ole Miss who forced 28 themselves.  Expect a conservative game plan by each coach because of this, but at the end of the day I think Bo Wallace is the more experienced QB in big games and Ole Miss has the better defense so getting 3.5 points is a bargain.  The total looks good too as Ole Miss is 12-2 in their last 14 games while TCU is 7-0-1 in their last 8 bowl games.  Each opponent has kept their opponents under their season average.  TCU by a combined average of around 8 points, and Ole Miss by an average of 17 points.

Ole Miss +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD; U56 2.2* BONUS

Losing to Arkansas on the road, Auburn at home in a game they should have won and losing by 3 at LSU is nothing to be ashamed by.  This is a team that beat Alabama and Miss State both were ranked high when they played them.  This is a team that also played Boise State in non-conference play and a total of 9 bowl teams.  TCU put up video game like numbers along the way, but after I saw Texas lose to Arkansas, and West Virginia to Texas A&M, and Oklahoma to Clemson I am just not sold on the Big 12 right now.  Now TCU iss a different animal with a team that can play offense and defense, but in reality they had the 55th toughest schedule. Where is this team's big win?  West Virginia?  Who beat Baylor by 14? To my knowledge TCU has not played a defense that is even close to the talent level of Ole Miss. 

Ole Miss is ranked 6th in adjusted defensive rank and is probably even better with rest.  This team was banged up at the end of the year which will happen when you go through a schedule like theirs, but now they will benefit more from the time off along with the 297 mile trip compared to TCU who has to travel 750 miles.  Ole Miss is definitely pumped up to be in this bowl game against TCU and the public has been playing them hard with one simple reason. "This team is pissed it did not get into the playoff."  Of course they are and that's not a reason to bet them.  I think mentally it's more difficult to prepare for a big game like this when you think you should be playing on New Years instead.  TCU is an elite offense right?  Then why have they only converted 41% of their third downs and 60% of their red zone attempts into TD's?  I'm not buying it and an Ole Miss defense with a month to prepare should play better. 

I like this total, because both defenses are elite and at their best in the red zone.  Ole Miss and TCU will try to run the ball and each coach has been great in bowl games so I expect this game to stay close and relatively low scoring.  TCU had 36 forced turnovers this year which they relied on quite a bit to put up points and now they go up against Ole Miss who forced 28 themselves.  Expect a conservative game plan by each coach because of this, but at the end of the day I think Bo Wallace is the more experienced QB in big games and Ole Miss has the better defense so getting 3.5 points is a bargain.  The total looks good too as Ole Miss is 12-2 in their last 14 games while TCU is 7-0-1 in their last 8 bowl games.  Each opponent has kept their opponents under their season average.  TCU by a combined average of around 8 points, and Ole Miss by an average of 17 points.

Notre Dame/ LSU Under 52.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

First of all this game will be played on grass with two teams that will want to run the ball before they pass and two defenses that are clearly the strength and give each the best chance to win.  I expect LSU to control this game from start to finish with their veteran offensive line and talented running backs. Notre Dame will get a bit more healthy so I could see their defense stepping up to stop the run which fits their strengths far better.  Notre Dame should play even better knowing the running game is coming without much of a threat from the passing game.  On the flip side Notre Dame's strength is definitely its passing game, but they will face LSU the #1 ranked passing defense from an efficiency perspective. The last time they faced a defense this good was Stanford who they scored only 17 points on at home.

LSU's defense down the stretch was just a lock allowing 3, 10, 13, 17, and 17 points to some pretty good offenses along the way.  I could see this game going over if Notre Dame turns the ball over 4+ times, but otherwise I expect a game that neither team runs away with.  LSU struggles in the red zone so I don't expect them to have the ability to run away with this as they struggle to score down there, but LSU is very good on defense in the red zone allowing just 48.15% so that usually makes up for it.  LSU offenses have been better in years past and have never been able to put up points in bowl games, under 5-1 in their last 6 while Notre Dame is U35-17-1 in their last 53. 

Clemson +4.5 2.2* bonus

Clemson arguably has the best front 7 in football and they face an Oklahoma team that is getting healthy at the right time, but I can't see Oklahoma really being excited about this bowl game as they were expected to do a lot more this year.  The one thing that does concern me about this match up is how good Oklahoma's left side of the offensive line is, but they haven't done very well when going up against top run defenses going 0-3 when facing a top 30 run defense while Clemson is in the top 10.  Clemson's defense is also #1 in yards per play allowed and it's not just because the ACC is down this year.  They also faced Georgia and South Carolina out of the SEC.  We saw South Carolina defeat Miami just a day ago.  Clemson won't have their star QB but they have won all year with defense and I don't see Trevor Knight lighting up the scoreboard after being out for over a month.

Texas A&M +1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

The Aggies will most certainly benefit more from the time off here after they went through a brutal schedule which many sources had as the third toughest schedule.  I had them with the 3rd most difficult schedule and West Virginia at #40.  A&M had a tough physical game they won against Arkansas, and then they played three top 5 ranked teams in Ole Miss, Miss State and Alabama.  All 3 were top 25 run defenses and play a physical brand of football.  They had 13 days off played LA Monroe, and went on the road to beat a top 5 Auburn team at the time showing that they still have the talent to compete with anyone in the country.  They finished up the season against Missouri and LSU who were two of the better teams in the country.

The SEC East was the best division in football that we have ever seen in my opinion and it can wear you down, but now with time to prepare we will see Texas A&M and Kevin Sumlin at his best.  Sumlin is a very good coach who is 3-1 in bowl games and even blew out the Big 12 in the 2012 Cotton Bowl.  He's got Kyle Allen at QB a highly touted recruit who was playing his best, but the biggest key will be whether or not A&M can run the ball.  In their wins this year they averaged 5.45 ypc and 3.14 in losses.  Lucky enough they face a West Virginia defense they should be able to run on with their speed. You could say the same about West Virginia who also needs to run the ball and A&M's defense has definitely struggled, but the fact that West Virginia will start a QB with less experience and A&M certainly has the pass rush to get after Skyler Howard who faced Kansas State and Iowa State ranked 90th and 121st in pass rush.  A&M was ranked 18th in sack % and will force mistakes in this game as West Virginia was -15 in turnover margin this year with 28 lost. 

A&M will also enjoy a nice special teams advantage as their punter averages 44.5 and the West Virginia return game is among the worst at 3.24 yards per return ranking 124th.

Penn State +125 2.5* play

I'm going to take Penn State to win this game just based on what this game means to them.  They are finally back in a meaningful game and I just think overall it means more to this program following the past few years.  Boston College has a solid defense, but if their is a weakness anywhere it's against the pass and Christina Hackenberg is capable of beating opposing defenses if he has the time.  I expect Penn State's defense will be Penn State's defense especially against a one dimensional offense like Boston College which will need to run the ball to win.  Penn State is #1 vs. the run and has held all 3 of the top 20 rushing opponents under 300 yards in Ohio State, Indiana and Michigan State.  Penn State is also 16-7 ATS in their last 23 on grass.

South Carolina +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

The public has pushed this line much too far and I'll jump on it.  The reason the public likes it?  SEC East is in a down year and went 0-4 vs. the ACC the final week of the season, but Miami does not typically play an SEC team.  Teams under Al Golden usually fall quickly and they have lost 3 in a row.  I knew their season was over when they lost to Florida State in dramatic fashion.  I just don't see what Al Golden has accomplished in his career.  He's 55-55 as a head coach and I get he's had tremendous obstacles to over come but really with the talent he has he hasn't been close to having a break out year.  A lot of people have said the ACC is having a down year and really where has Miami's top win come fro?  They beat Duke at home and they were supposed to.  Meanwhile South Carolina beat Georgia, and they went on the road to beat Florida.  They also have a dual offense with a ton of experience and a ton of guys leaving for the NFL so motivation of playing in their last football game is very high.

At the end of the day the Independence Bowl is not very exciting for an SEC program like South Carolina, but the motivation is that they are playing Miami.  They also want to finish with a winning record.  The last time a Steve Spurrier coached team didn't was 1987. 

VA Tech +3 3.3* play 

This is a very experienced team that is not content with their win over Virginia to close the season out.  I think Frank Beamer might be on his way out, but this team still has a lot to play for and their defense is still one of the best in the country.  Here we have a bad offense vs. a bad defense and a good offense vs. a good defense, but I just think Virginia Tech's defense is better than Cinci's offense.  Strength of schedule is a huge indicator as you'd be hard to find an impressive win on Cincinatti's schedule.  They lost to Memphis, Ohio State and Miami in blowout fashion while beating Houston I guess would be the team's most impressive win.  I can't really get excited about the American Athletic Conference and the teams that have played so far have not looked all that great with Central Florida losing pretty easily yesterday to NC State.

NC State/UCF Under 49 4.4* NCAAF POD

I am playing the under in this game as I just think the match up is right for it.  Neither team has a dual offense that can pass and run and both run the ball more because of that.  In close games they will run the ball even more (over 60% of the time) and that's what we are going to have on our hands here tonight.  I would lean towards NC State, but you just can't fade O'Leary in a bowl game.  I think UCF's offense is just not very good and it all starts up front where they ranked 111th in adjusted line yards.  I think they will have issues with an athletic NC State defensive line which just got finished holding UNC's potent offense to 7 points and 207 total yards.

On the other side of the ball you have NC State coming off 35 and 42 point efforts but against sub par defenses.  UCF is a dual threat defense they can stop both the run and pass and are ranked 4th in yards per play.  NC State has had 4 games against top 30 defensive yards per play units and have averaged 14 points.  They also won't have as much luck in the red zone against Central Florida who is holding opponents to 44% TD percentage so I expect a lot of field goals.  On the flip side UCF is one of the worst offenses in the red zone with 50% TD percentage and NC State's defensive unit holding opponents to 58%, but take out Georgia Tech and Florida State and they are holding opponents to 44%.  Expect both teams to move the ball at times, but I don't expect a lot of TD's in this game.  Central Florida has the neutral field advantage having to travel less than 100 miles compared to NC State at 601 but the reverse line movement on the spread hints to me this is going to be a close game and a low scoring one at that. 

[b]Rice -2 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]

I like Rice here.. Going to Hawaii can be a big distraction for young kids and I just think Rice is more focused than an average Fresno State team.  All the quotes from the players and the coaches reveals that Rice is much more focused for this game and even have a chip on their shoulder considering they gave up 76 points in their last game.  Typically teams rebound from that and it won't be that hard against Fresno who is ranked 101st in yards per play on offense and 104th on defense.  In opponent adjusted offense and defense they are ranked 106th and 99th.  Fresno has had issues in the past on under Tim DeRuyter as they lost as a 13 point favorite by 33 points and lost by 25 as a 4.5 point under dog the last 2 years in bowl games under DeRuyter.  It's also worth mentioning that this team has a couple of very bad losses including UNLV and Wyoming.. Wyoming of which they had 2 weeks to prepare.

Now Rice has not been that great at times this year, but I really think they have more motivation and they match up well.  Up front they should be able to run the ball with Jowan Davis and Darik Dillard and they feature the more complete QB by far and their offensive line has protected a bit better than Fresno Stat who ranks 97th in pass protection.  Rice is 14th in the nation in sack% and could create major issues for Fresno who is also very prone to turning the ball over with 25 lost on the season compared with Rice who has turned the ball over only 12 times all year.  Fresno is also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Conference USA and the Mountain West is not exactly impressing me early in these bowls going 2-4 so far. 

[b]Central Michigan +4 3.3* play[/b]

The MAC is getting discredited a lot for their performance last year going 0-5 in the bowls and being 1-2 this year and I see the public moving hard on a trendy pick with Western Kentucky who has one of the best offenses in the country.  Western Kentucky also has one of the worst defenses though ranked 118th in yards per play allowed. I really do not see much separating these two teams or these two conferences despite what Marshall's beat down of Northern Illinois looked like.  This was a weird year for the MAC with no dominating team while Marshall basically ran away with the Conference USA before falling to Western Kentucky at home in a wild shoot out, but overall these conferences and talent levels are roughly the same and there is too much value on the Chippewas at +4 to ignore.

Western Kentucky celebrated their win over Marshall like they won the championship and although bowl games are not typical let down situations I feel they are not as excited to be here as Central Michigan.  This team also gave up 40+ points 7 times this year while the Chippewas don't sport a dominating offense they are certainly capable to win with their pro style attack.  Cooper Rush has been an efficient QB and should have a good day here.  If Central Michigan can limit their turnovers they could easily win this game.  Defense is what travels and Central Michigan has the far better defense and much more experience here.  Western Kentucky also lost on the road vs. Big Ten foe Illinois while Central Michigan won @ Purdue who beat Illinois on the road.  

San Diego State -2.5 4.4* POD

Both of these teams really had a down year compared to their standards.  Navy is used to winning the Commander Chief's trophy and San Diego State is used to being in contention in their conference, but both will get to a bowl game again.  For Navy I just feel like they have too much to over come.  San Diego State is playing a home game here in their own field and Navy is 2-5 in their last 7 bowl games.  San Diego State will have 14 extra days to prepare for the triple option and it should not be much trouble for them. 

Both teams need to run to win and that's what they hang their hat on, but Navy has issues stopping the run while San Diego State has been more consistent in that area.  The Aztecs head coach Rocky Long is no stranger to preparing for a triple option attack.  He faces Air Force every year and due to where they are located would face Army each year.  They have won their last 8 games vs. Army/Navy/Air Force dating back to the 2010 season with margin of victories around 14.6 points on average.  This is just too much in a short period of time for Navy to come off the high of beating Navy go all the way to the other side of the country and beat a team playing at home that has extra preparation and is used to preparing for your offense. 

BYU +2 4.4* NCAAF POD

I like BYU here in this game for a vareity of reasons.  First of all only 1 guy on Memphis team has bowl experience.  BYU looked worse than they did down the stretch and they will be as healthy as they have been all year int his game with the exception of Taysom Hill obviously, but this team did not seem to miss a beat without Hill.  Justin Fuente is the new hot thing for coaching given what he did with Memphis this year, but he did it in one of the worst conferences.  In fact his last 6 opponents offenses ranked no better than 94th in yards per play.  That will make any defense look elite.  Bronco Mendenhall quietly leads a team of men who will be focused and experienced in this game and certainly not distracted by Miami Beach.  Mendenhall is 4-1 in his last 5 bowl games and 3-0 against non-major conference teams.

BYU's defense is every bit as good as Memphis and they did it in a better conference facing teams like Boise State and in non conference they went up against Cal and Texas.  When Memphis stepped up in competition facing UCLA they allowed 42 points.  BYU as I mentioned before did not skip a beat with Christian Stewart taking over at QB.  In fact he finished with 22 TD's and 6 interceptions.  In adjusted opponent efficiency BYU's offense ranked 33rd to Memphis at 84th.  Memphis offense needs to run the ball to win.  They have 24 TD's and 4.61 yards per carry in wins, but 2.81 and 4 TD's in losses.  BYU is one of the best teams in run defense year in and year out and Memphis does not pose quite the threat through the air.  When BYU can concentrate on stopping the run the defense has great success and I think it will here again.  Another thing that would scare me about Memphis is the fact that they relied heavily on turnover to win games.  BYU only turned the ball over 5 times in their last 4 games. 

Air Force +2 3.3* play

I like Air Force here for various reasons.  For one they come out of the stronger conference (by far) MAC #10, MWC #6 and they have performed better against better opponents beating 4 bowl teams.  Western Michigan is 10-2 ATS this season, but the teams they have beat have been awful.  Even Bowling Green and Central Michigan the two bowl teams they beat are some of the worst when it comes to rankings. 

The first thing you have to look at in a game like this is whether or not Western Michigan can stop the run.  Western Michigan gave up more than 5 yards per carry to every single team they faced ranked inside the top 50 in rushing and they lost all of those games as well.  Sure preparing for the triple option is much easier when you have the extra time, but Air Force does have Kale Pearson back and the senior has the ability to throw the ball with 14 TD and 3 interceptions.  Air Force is more balanced than most would think and I don't think Western Michigan will have a lot of success by the second half.

The last thing I looked at was each teams efficiency when it matters.  So, third downs, red zone and Air Force is either equal or better in both offense and defensive categories and they did so against a tougher schedule.  Air Force beat Navy, Nevada, Colorado State and Boise this year and they have experience playing on this blue turf and I think playing them as an under dog is the play.

UTAH/COL ST U58 5.5* NCAAF POD

I will gladly take the under here and we are getting tremendous value here based on a few scenarios.  First of all Colorado State has put up some points and Utah's defense the last two weeks of the season has looked average, but give Kyle Whittingham extra time to prepare for an offense and he usually shuts them down.  Facing opponents with extra rest he held 3 power 5 conference opponents to an average of 18 points per game.  Colorado State has had a very nice season, but their head coach left for Florida and they have faced some bad defenses along the way.  Only 3 ranked in the top 70 and they averaged just 21 points against those never topping 24.  I mean they faced 128th, 126th, 124th ranked defense from a yards per play perspective.  You are going to put up points against those type of defenses.  Utah is not as bad as they looked the last two weeks of the season and their defense will rebound.

For Colorado State it all starts with the passing game.  In wins they have a 180 QB rating and in losses they have a 129.  Utah has one of the best front seven's in the country and rank #2 in pass rush.  Colorado State faced 4 teams with top 40 pass rushing units and they struggled against all 4 never scoring more than 24 points and going just 2-2.  Now this will still be a tough game for Utah to win and that's why I won't play them ATS.  However, the match up in their favor is Colorado State's rushing defense.  Colorado State also lacks depth on their front and rank 81st in ypc run defense.  Utah's offense with Devontae Booker should be able to run and pick up first downs while moving the clock.  This team likes to win those low scoring game which I think this will be in the end. 

Nevada -1 3.3* Early Bird Special 

Despite the Rajin Cajuns being in a home like atmospher and the fact that they are 3-0 in this bowl game the last 3 years I am going to go with Nevada out of the Mountain West.  I just really felt like the Sun Belt Conference was down this year ranked #11 in my conference power rankings while the Mountain West was #6.  Common opponent here was Boise State and the results were drastically different.  Nevada also played two PAC 12 teams while Lafayette played Ole Miss out of the SEC.  Strength of schedule Nevada had the more challenging road.

Onto the game now.. Both of these teams rely on the run first running the ball nearly 60% of the time and both feature mobile QB's in Terrance Broadway and Cody Fajardo from Nevada.  The funny thing about Nevada is they don't need to run the ball well to win.  For instance they are running the ball just as good in losses as they are in wins and they ran the ball well against Boise State while LA Lafayette got shut out.  Also Nevada's running game really faced many more challenging defenses with 7 in the top 65 while Lafayette faced only 4 and 3 over their first 3 games.  Here is the key though for Lafayette as when they lose they are allowing opponents to rush for 5.73 yards per carry, but in wins they allow 3.11. I don't think they can stop Nevada's running game especially with FAjardo leading the way.  Only BYU and Arizona have been able to do so and those two defenses are among the best.  

Nevada's defense in my opininion could have some success against the run as Lafayette has no passing game.  Ever since they lost Jamal Robinson at WR in the middle of the season they really struggled to get this part of the offense going. This ironically is the key to Nevada's season.  When they win they have held opposing QB's to 115 QB rating, but in losses 174.  Well it just so happens they have faced some really good passing offenses and Lafayette is just not one of them.  Nevada will be able to concentrate on the run and they have two 1st team All Mountain West guys to do it in Brock Hekking and Ian Seau.

Army +15 3.3* play; Army +510 0.5* bonus

Usually the Commander-in-Chief trophy is on the line in this game, but not so this year as Air Force already wrapped that up.  Navy also has a 12 game winning streak in this series and a bowl to look forward to in San Diego.  Army on the other hand has this game and it is bigger than any other bowl win they could have if they can win here today.   Not sure if they can win, but all I ask for at these odds is for them to have the ball down less than a score with a chance to win.  We have seen it in years past and I think this team is stronger than years past. 

Jeff Monken is the new head coach at Army and he knows how important this game is. His background is quite impressive from his days under Paul Johnson at Navy and Georgia Tech to what he did with the Georgia Southern program for 3 years.  You see Georgia Southern going 9-3 this year and that is a testament to Monken's work.  Now it's been an average season at best for Army, but I don't see this Navy team as being over powering or something that Army can no stop or compete with.  Both have similar stats on both sides of the ball and Angel Santiago is a bit under rated while Keenan Reynolds gets all the attention.  Army can win the turnover battler here +2 on the season, Navy -3 and steal this game.  

Ohio State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD Ohio State +175 1.5* play

This has tight game written all over it.  Wisconsin has soared as almost what you’d consider to be a heavy favorite.  Ohio state has had issues vs. the run the last few weeks and Wisconsin obviously has the best rushing offense they have faced.  A lot of experts are saying whoever runs the ball better wins this game, but I’m not so sure.  Ohio State actually is allowing more yards per run in their wins than their losses and Wisconsin is rushing for the same in their wins and losses.  I think the team that wins is going to be the team whose QB plays better and plays better in the red zone, but either way we are looking at a conservative game late with the QB play just not being there and two extremely talented defenses against the run.

Ohio State has Cardale Jones coming in and I think it’s harder for Wisconsin because they really do not know what they are going to see.  Urban Meyer also is very good with QB’s in his system and I’m not worried one bit.  I mean try to think back and tell me who the last bad QB was under Meyer?  Even Kenny Guiton put up 14 TD and 2 INT last year while Miller was out.  Shit if you look back to his Utah days Urban Meyer has produced a QB rating the last 9 seasons he’s coached of 16th, 3rd, 37th, 24th, 1st, 8th, 1st, 10th, and 3rd which is ridiculous.  So whatever line they moved for this game because of the QB play I’m thinking we have value being on the side of a coach that’s better than his opponent.

I also think Joel Stave is going to have a lot of issues moving the ball when he has to.  In Wisconsin losses he has a 51 QB rating and in wins he has a 147.  Ohio State has only allowed 7 passing TD’s and has 13 INT’s in conference play.  They are +5 in turnover margin while Wisconsin is -2.  Wisconsin is also not very good in red zone defense which should be the difference as they are allowing 72% TD rate when opponents get there.

[b]Georgia Tech +4 2.2* play[/b]

I've supported Florida State the last few weeks via the teaser plays but now it's time for them to finally go down and shake up the playoff picture.  Georgia Tech has the ingredients to make this a very close game with their ability to control the clock ranking #1 in third down conversions. Florida State has not been dominant on third down defense allowing 42% conversions and they have had issues at times stopping the run. Yes, they scheduled Citadel early in the year who run the triple option, but Citadel ran for 250 yards on them all the same.  It has been a weekly trend to fall behind and come back, but against Georgia Tech I don't think they will be able to do that.  Georgia Tech has an excellent ball hawking secondary and an offense that should be able to stay on the field.  I could see Florida State holding on by a field goal possibly, but would not be surprised if they finally went down.  

Kansas State +7.5 4.4* BIG 12 Game of the YEAR

One team has half the penalties, the better QB rating in conference play and better pass defense in conference play and is converting at nearly 8% more on TD’s in the red zone while allowing 14% less while also converting on third downs at a higher rate.  I bet you would think the answer to those questions was Baylor.  Listen Baylor had a fabulous year but there just seems to be too much complaining about this team that scheduled Buffalo while TCU and Kansas State scheduled Minnesota and Auburn.  Kansas State is not over a TD under dog against a Baylor team that now has a lot of pressure on them, because they need to win with glory here in a blow out.  I don’t see it happening against Bill Snyder and Kansas State.  This is a well coached team that has played in a bunch of great games on the road and I expect the same here on Saturday.

Tulane +3 3.3* play

This game probably means nothing to most, but Tulane and Temple will battle with Temple’s bowl hopes on the mind.  Tulane actually has had two weeks to prepare for this game which normally you would say who cares?   However, they have a new field down they have a young energetic head coach in Curtis Johnson.  This team went 7-6 last year in shocking fashion under Johnson and this has been a tough season, but destroying Temple’s bowling hopes would help.  Both teams don’t have much offense and this is a long trip for Temple and I just think a well-rested Tulane team will be playing this game like it is their Super Bowl.   Tulane did not have the easiest schedule here at home facing Georgia Tech, Cincinnati, and Memphis along with Uconn who they beat.  This is arguably their second easiest game all year at home and they should be poised to win it.

Alabama/Missouri U49 2.2* play

I’m going under here in the SEC Championship game.  Some should expect a bit of a hangover for Alabama in this game along with a lot of motivation for Missouri because they are disrespected every single week.  I actually could see Alabama winning this game 31-0.  I don’t think Missouri is good enough on offense to score on Alabama.  Alabama in my opinion could get up by 2 TD’s and really take their foot off the gas and Missouri’s defense is arguably one of the best in the SEC especially with the front 7.  However, Alabama has an advantage up the middle and I think that’s where they will spend a lot of time.  The ground game will keep the clock moving and unless Matty Mauk throws several pick sixes this game should be a low scoring Alabama win as they start to prepare for the college playoff. 

Oregon/Arizona U74.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

This total makes a lot of sense when you see the first game got to 50+ points with Oregon playing with 4 new offensive linemen.  I would have leaned towards Oregon to cover the spread, but I did not get it at -13.5 in time.  I actually like the total play, because I think Oregon's defense is going to shut this Arizona offense out.  This is an offense that's not as good as it was in previous years while the Oregon defense has been improving.  Arizona is not running the ball as well as it did last year and we get a high total based on what?

Arizona has scored 42 points the last 2 weeks, but in one game they needed 4 turnovers, and the other they only had 333 yards, but relied on big plays.  I don't see either happening on Friday night.  This game is also on the grass which should slow the game down a bit if Arizona does not already play their part in doing so with their run first mentality.  Oregon's offense has struggled against this 3-3-5 defense that Arizona plays and I think it will at times again.  I don't see them getting to 50 points while I could easily see them in the 40's.  I see a max score of 45-28 or 42-31, but more than likely this Oregon defense is going to hold Arizona under 30 points which should get us the under in this one.  This was a game that was 7-3 at the half during the regular season and both defenses held their opposing offense under 500 total yards.

Teaser of the Week Bonus - 10-1 This Season

Northern Illinois -0.5 / Cincinnati -1 (See Free Pick for N. ILL reasoning)

 This team has a ton to play for on Saturday while Houston really not so much.  With a win the Bearcats could share the league title and they should easily be motivated to do so.  What is impressive is that this team only lost to Ohio State, Memphis (best team in the AAC), and Miami (2 of 3 of those were on the road).  Houston has beaten the teams they should and lost to the ones they should and this is just too much for them to do.  Go on the road with your one dimensional offense in the last game of the season and face a team that features the best offense you have faced all year  and beat them while spoiling their chances at winning their conference title.  I don't think it will happen and I love the fact that Cincinnati who is not as strong on defense has been dominant in the red zone and much better in conference play.  Take out the Miami and Ohio State games and this defense is just fine.  Houston is going to have issues scoring in this game.  Houston also has to face Cinci a top 30 offense in yards per play.  Houston has not faced 1 other school this year that is in the top 50.

UCF +7 -115 3.5* PLAY

I am going to take Central Florida here tonight as this is very close to a championship game.  I just feel that the Knights have the better coaching and have played better down the stretch compared with East Carolina who is 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a winning record and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 following a SU win.  I'm not a big trend guy, but the 4-15 ATS vs. a winning team speaks to me about coaching.  

UCF's losses against Penn State and Missouri who both have top 10 defenses are acceptable while their loss to Uconn may look a bit weird, East Carolina also nearly lost the Huskies, but almost did so at home.  Connecticut is always strong up front and again I'm looking to the defensive side of the ball for both teams and I think that's what gives UCF a big advantage here. 

Central Florida is #1 in passing yard efficiency defense and East Carolina really has not played anyone at this level yet.  VA Tech, Uconn and Temple were all top 80 units and those were all close games or losses for East Carolina.  The rest of the defenses they have faced were outside the top 80 as far as yards/pass attempt.  Shane Carden had a great year, but he definitely slowed down towards the end of the season and now he faces his toughest test against a defense allowing a 75QB rating in conference play.  When you look at the conference numbers these two teams are about the same just with different strength and weaknesses.  Central Florida's red zone defense will be the difference. 

Miss St -2.5 2.2* play; Under 50.5 3.3* play

I really think Miss State will pull this game out in the end.  Ole MIss is a team that can really turn things around here with a win against their hated rival witch a chance for a 10 win season, but I think they are just banged up here.  Bo Wallace is the key and he always plays well at home, but I just think the offense will struggle again without Treadwell.  This team has been awful in the red zone as well and that's part of the reason I like the under since Miss State's red zone defense is the best in the nation holding opponents to a 35% TD percentage.  Ole Miss defense is also very good at keeping teams out of the end zone holding opponents to just 38% on the season.  Expect a lot of field goals in a game where there is a lot on the line.  I expect a lot of conservative play calling from both coaches and in the end this game could or should be decided by a field goal.  I still believe Miss State would have beaten Alabama if they had just 1 more quarter and I think Ole Miss got Alabama at the right time.  Ole Miss is just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games in November while the Under has gone 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. 

Miss St -2.5 2.2* play; Under 50.5 3.3* play

I really think Miss State will pull this game out in the end.  Ole MIss is a team that can really turn things around here with a win against their hated rival witch a chance for a 10 win season, but I think they are just banged up here.  Bo Wallace is the key and he always plays well at home, but I just think the offense will struggle again without Treadwell.  This team has been awful in the red zone as well and that's part of the reason I like the under since Miss State's red zone defense is the best in the nation holding opponents to a 35% TD percentage.  Ole Miss defense is also very good at keeping teams out of the end zone holding opponents to just 38% on the season.  Expect a lot of field goals in a game where there is a lot on the line.  I expect a lot of conservative play calling from both coaches and in the end this game could or should be decided by a field goal.  I still believe Miss State would have beaten Alabama if they had just 1 more quarter and I think Ole Miss got Alabama at the right time.  Ole Miss is just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games in November while the Under has gone 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. 

Bonus Teaser of the Week!

FLORIDA ST -1 / ALABAMA -2.5 4.4* TEASER OF THE WEEK

Both teams are at home in big games in November.  Florida has a lot to play for in the upset, but I find it hard for a coaching staff to be that motivated to beat Florida State.  I thank the public for pushing the number all the way down to 7 so I can tease it with another game like Alabama Auburn.  The oddsmakers are usually very very sharp on the line on these games and Alabama wants revenge in this battle after they lost in dramatic fashion last year.  Teasers have treated me well this year in college football including another win yesterday making me 8-1 on the year.  

[b]Old Dominion +3.5 3.3* play[/b]

Florida Atlantic really does not have much to play for in this game with no chance at getting into a bowl, but Old Dominion has a chance to get to 6-6 which would be remarkable.  They also feature the best player on the field at the most valuable position in QB.  Taylor Heinickie is an experienced QB that's been playing for a while and should not be afraid of this game on the road.  Old Dominion is a balanced offense and they can not only sling it but are picking up 5.11 yards per carry on the road this year.  FAU has struggled defending the pass and the run at times and parlay with the fact that I just don't see them that interested in this game and I think there is a great chance that Old Dominion wins.

Kentucky +12.5 3.3* play

I'll take Kentucky here with value.  These two teams have gone in opposite directions the last few weeks, but Kentucky is still very capable of pulling off a win here.  I think the game is bigger for the Wildcats since if they get a 6th win they will go bowling while Louisville just came off back to back physical games against Boston College and Notre Dame.  Sure Kentucky's defense has been awful, but that's against SEC opponents and now they get to face their rival with extra rest and preparation and a rookie QB in Reggie Bonnafon who is only making his 4th start of the year.  I think Kentucky's defense will hold up just fine while their offense should be able to score some points.

[b]Arkansas -2.5 5.5* pod ; Arizona st +8.5 Stanford +12.5 3.3* playb]

Iowa pk 3.3* play

You'd think we are getting weak value here with Iowa covering against Wisconsin in impressive fashion, but not winning and Nebraska embarassing themselves again.  However, I'll take the home team here as Nebraska is one dimensional on offense and whenever they play a decent defense they seem to lose.  Their only win vs. a top 45 yards/play defense was against Miami early in the season at home facing a true freshman QB.  Iowa is ranked 23rd while they struggle against the run they have been good enough when the opposing team can not beat them with their arm and I just don't get worried about Nebraska on the road passing the ball.  I also don't think Abdullah is 100% and it's impacting Nebraska's ability to run the bal. 

Jake Ruddock caught fire last game and he's been outstanding at home and has a 162 QB rating over his last 4 games.  Iowa should be able to establish the run against Nebraska who is giving up over 6 yards per carry on the road.  These two teams have faced 2 of the same opponents in their last 3 games and a similar level opponent in the 3rd and the stats are remarkable.  Iowa is +45 yards while Nebraska is -170.  Right now I just have more faith in Iowa at home where they are allowing just 30% of red zone attempts to turn into TD's.

Northern Illinois +8 4.4* play

Northern Illinois just keeps winning especially on the road.  They are not doing it in any sexy way, but they are winning games and they are in position to take their division once again with a win over Western Michigan who they have dominated with 5 straight wins and have gone 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.  Western Mich over achieved last week with a win over Central Michigan and I think they may even lose this game.  Against the division's third place Toledo both teams played at home.  Northern Illinois cruised as a 3.5 point favorite to a 3 point win while Western Michigan lost by 1 at home as a 5.5 point under dog.  The market for whatever reason has been crazy about this team and the Oddsmaker's have had no choice, but to make them a heavy favorite here.

I get that they have a better run defense in a game that will be decided by who can run the ball better and Western Michigan is home and they have a QB that can stretch the field with his arm, but Northern Illinois is just flat out a better program and they have 4 extra days of rest and preparation while Western Michigan is on a short week here.  I think that's a major advantage with the holidays and what not.  It's also worth noting that some of the stats have to be taken with a grain of salt when you consider non-conference.  Northern Illinois played UNLV, and WMU played Idaho, which is a wash.  However, WMU played Purdue and Virginia Tech who are among the worst in their respective conferences while Northern Illinois played Northwestern who has big wins against Wisconsin and Notre Dame and Arkansas one of the nations hottest teams.  Northern Illinois can and will run the ball in this game and WMU has faced only 2 teams in the top 70 in yards per carry all year.  They have allowed 6.30 ypc in their losses and 2.99 in their wins.  Northern Illinois is rushing 5.18 ypc in conference play and is ranked 31st in yards per carry.  They are a team that does not make mistakes or turn the ball over and have proven they can win on the road.  I'll take the points gladly in this one.

LSU -2.5 -120 BUY 1/2 5.5* SEC GOW POD

Both even records and why is LSU favored to begin with?  This is just a tough match up for Texas A&M in my opinion.  Texas A&M needs to pass the ball to be successfull and that's LSU's defensive strength.  LSU needs to run the ball to be successful on offense and that'st Texas A&M's weakness.  This just sets up perfectly for a hungry LSU team off two consecutive losses.  First of all lets go over the Arkansas disaster.

Losing to Arkansas 17-0 and this team was not happy about it.  A lot factored into this and it was my SEC game of the month.  Arkansas was craving their first SEC win and were beyond due coming off a bye while LSU just got done losing a heartbreaker to Alabama.  LSU also suffered 2 key injuries to their offensive line in that game and after the extra time both players will be back for this one which is great news.  LSU's offense struggles when they face teams that can stop the run.  In fact all 4 losses were against teams that can stop the run pretty damn well.  They also won 2 close games vs. Florida (10th in the nation vs. the run), and Wisconsin (4th).  However they are rushing for nearly 2 yards per carry more in their wins.  Key to the game - Run the damn ball!  On paper it says LSU can not run on the road, but that is a bunch of bull shit.  All of their road games have come against opponents that are elite in stopping the run.  Now A&M is pure trash against the run.  Ranking 105th in yards per carry allowed.  They are 105th in adjusted line yards allowed, 124th in standard down yards, 103rd in opponent power success and 115th in stuff rate.  LSU's offensive line is the strength and it's a veteran bunch that are pissed off about how they played at Arkansas.  Watch what happens in their last game of the season.

LSU defensively now are a good match up they are ranked 16th in adjusted line yards.  They can have trouble stopping the run sometimes but have improved down the stretch.  Their pass defense is the real strength and when A&M can't pass they lose.  In fact all 4 of their losses have come against these 4 pass defensive rankings, 26th, 9th, 11th, and 27th and LSU is 3rd.  This is the best pass defense they have faced all year.  A&M's wins were against pass defenses all ranked outside the top 50 at 77, 91, 127, 87, 58 and 55.  LSU should dominate the line of scrimmage on offense and control it on defense on third down and in the red zone.  Texas A&M is allowing 80% red zone TD's to opponents in conference play while LSU comes in at 50%.  

Lastly, LSU also takes care of the ball with just 2 turnovers on the road on the season combined.  Meanwhile Texas A&M is -6 at home.

Texas +7 3.3* play[/b]

Texas is hot and granted it is against 3 of the bottom teams in the Big 12, but still they are playing with a lot of confidence right now and I just think 7 points is too much.  Texas can play without any pressure while TCU may be trying to get style points here after their 34-30 win against Kansas did not do them justice.  Texas has shown they can run on any run defense at home and that's  big key to this game.  TCU's defense should keep this in check, but again I expect a low scoring game any way.

Texas ability to stop the run has to be their because in 4 of their 5 losses they allowed 200+ yards.  However, they have not allowed a single opponent to rush over 5 ypc.  TCU is rushing for 1 yard less on the road and when they have been held under 5.5 yards per carry it has been a close game with wins of 4, 1, 4, and a loss by 3.  Charlie Strong is very good on defense against spread teams and he has the prototype team to get a team like TCU out of their rhythm which is what I think we see happen here.  Strong also very good with extra time to prepare on defense.  Both coaches are very good in this match up, but the home team with a good defense catching a TD is just too good to pass up.  Texas has the 10th rated sack defense from a % perspective.  Baylor has only faced 1 team ranked in the top 50 at getting to the QB and they lost that game.

Miami OH +3.5 3.3* play

This would be a POD, but I really can not gauge the motivation of this team or its coaches at 2-9 facing a team that needs 1 win to get bowl eligible.  To be honest on paper Miami OH has plenty of advantages in this match up and they directly correlate to their strengths.

Offensively Miami OH is the better team and they have done it against similar competition.  I won’t go down the list, but Ohio is 81st in yards per play and even worse on the road.  They put up 14 points on Northern Illinois at home while Miami OH put up 41.  Andrew Hendrix has been very good in conference play with 15 TD and 3 INT’s.  He’s going up against Ohio’s pass defense which is ranked 90th in passing QB defense.  Ohio usually struggle when they are unable to stop opposing QB’s and I see them having some issues here.

Miami OH gets 3 extra days to prepare for their last game.  They have played well at home on defense allowing just 32% 3rd down conversions while their offense has been really good in conference play in the red zone converting on 72% of their opportunities. 

USC +4 4.4* NCAAF POD

USC has lost the last two years to Brett Hundley, but this year feels different.  UCLA's defense gave up 37 points to Colorado and 30 to Washington and those are two offenses that do not scare you.  Cody Kessler has NFL players on his side and he's been playing just as good as Brett Hundley on the other side and USC features the better defense led by stud Leonard Williams.  In fact I think USC has the better players on both sides when you watch WR Nelson Agholor.  Kessler will have plenty of time to pass considering UCLA is 109th at getting to the QB.  UCLA's defense is also not stopping the run at all at home allowing 4.48 ypc and while USC has not been a physical imposing running game, Javorius Allen is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry and has 8 100 yard games.  This is where USC will win the game, because on the flip side they are allowing 2.91 yards per carry in conference play.

Speaking of which in conference play these two teams have similar statistics.  What is surprising actually is the fact that USC's QB play is slightly better and USC's run defense is allowing over 1 yard less on the ground.  If they can contain Hundley they win this game going away, but I think it will be more difficult than that.  The key stats though are 3rd down offense, defense and TD percentage in the red zone along with turnover margin.  USC in conference play has better numbers in all 5 categories.  On neutral field I would probably set them as a 2 point favorite so I think getting 4 points on the road gives us value.  USC behind better coaching should finally do something they couldn't do the last two years and that's beat UCLA. 

Washington -0.5 /Stanford 0.5 6pt teaser 4.4*

Washington is back home off a big loss with a fumble in the 4th quarter and they get to play an Oregon State team that is pretty happy with itself after facing Arizona State at home and crushing their dreams at a spot in the top 4 in the college playoff.  A hangover going on the road is inevitable here for Oregon State who has a shaky offensive line and has been unable to protect their senior QB Sean Mannion.  NT Danny Shelton is one of the best in the nation and DE Andrew Hudson is no slouch as they are 16th in sack % and should dominate this game at the point of attack.  Oregon State is only converting 25% of their third downs in conference play.

Stanford beat Cal by 50 points last year.  Their offense has been shaky all year and this spread deserves to be where it is, but Stanford's offense should finally get going here against Cal, a team that is 110th in yards per play on defense.  Everyone is up on this Cal team and they covered the spread with luck last week against USC.  Stanford meanwhile has looked awful, but I see them turning it up here.  They put up 30+ points in big wins in each of their match ups against teams ranked worse than 100 in the nation in yards/play allowed.  Cal's offense has looked great, but they have been shut down when they have played good defenses and Stanford still has that going for them ranked 3rd in yards allowed.

Syracuse +7.5 -108 2.2* play

I'll take the Orange here with 2 weeks to prepare.  Although they really have nothing to play for and will be getting a lot of inexperienced players out there today I think 7.5 points is just too much value when you look at how they match up with Pitt.  Pittsburgh will run the ball 62% of the time and James Conner is a beast, but he faces arguably the best run defense he's had to go against all year and they are fresh.  They allow 3.25 yards per carry on the year 2.92 on the road and 3.39 in conference play while only allowing 6 TD's all year.  To put that in perspective Pitt's defense is allowing 5.39 ypc in conference play and 5.5+ over their last 5 games combined.

Pitt is a young team and I think Syracuse will get some of their inexperienced players out there, but the fact that they will be much fresher than Pitt's young team at this point in the season gives me confidence of sticking with the Orange even though Pitt has much more to play for.  Syracuses pass defense is good enough, but their run defense is special when you consider they have only allowed 1 opponent to rush for more than 4 yards per carry. That just so happened to be the team with the best QB int he nation in Jameis Winston.  Nobody has rushed for more than 200 yards either.  Pitt is 0-4 when they have been held under 200 yards or under 4 yards per carry.

Syracuse has not announced their starting QB, but whoever it is I think he'll take care of the ball as Syracuse has 4 turnovers all season long on the road and are +9 on the road in TO margin.  Now this is where they can steal this game, because Pitt is not a team forcing many turnovers.  In fact they have 1 INT in their last 5 games and have a -7 TO margin.  

Miss/Arkansas U46 3.3* play

This is my total play of the game as both teams should score under 20 in my opinion.  On one hand you get Arkansas who just got their monkey off their back with an LSU win, but I don't see this team laying down, because at 5-5 they desperately want to get to a bowl game and this is their best chance.  Ole Miss is coming off like 3 weeks rest after their Auburn game, but could be looking ahead to the Egg Bowl on Friday against their biggest rivalry in Miss State.  They still have an outside chance at getting to the SEC Championship.  Ole Miss defense is just nasty and that's how they got to where they were.  They have struggled a bit in run defense against power running teams like LSU and Alabama, but those teams scored 10 and 17 points.  They have only allowed 6 rushing TD's all season long and their red zone defense is among the best in the nation allowing just 41% TD percentage.  I like Arkansas, but their offense is somewhat one dimensional and easy to figure out.  Stop the run, and eliminate the TE's in the passing game and Ole MIss is certainly capable of doing that. 

With that said Arkansas defense is completely flying under the radar.  I think they can keep them in this game as I really do not trust Bo Wallace on the road in any situation.  Especially when he's without his top target in Treadwell.  This offense is going to have a lot more issues moving the ball considering they don't have Treadwell to stretch the field.  I also think Ole Miss will play a conservative game and save some of their offense for the Egg Bowl on Friday.  They will win with their defense today as the under is 6-2 in their last 8 meetings with the Hogs. 

Central Mich +109 3* play

I'm going with the Chippewas here being at home.  Listen both teams have equal amount to play for and are playing very similar type football against similar opponents.  Both teams will run the ball first at 56%+ of the time and when you look at the details public perception is a bit skewed.  First of all Central Michigan can run the ball, but they don't rely as heavily on an effective running game to win.  Central Mich is rushing the ball 4.56 ypc in conference play compared to Western Michigan's 4.40.  Western Michigan leans heavily on Javion Franklin, but he's not 100% with an ankle injury and Central Michigan's defense is better at stuffing the run. 

Western Michigan is allowing 4.38 on the road and 3.73 in conference play while Central Michigan is allowing 3.11 in conference play.  Both rushing offense are helped by their passing offenses that average over 8 yards per attempt and have been great in conference play.  Bottom line is both teams are playing very similarly and Central Michigan is home feeling like they are a 10 point under dog.  I bet they come out and get the win. 

UTEP +8 3.3* PLAY

I like the Miners here on Friday night playing in their home state.  This is not too much of a road game for a short week.  Rice, is looking towards LA Tech next week since they have dominated UTEP over the years.  A win next week would get them to play Marshall in the Conference USA Championship after they got beat easily a week ago.  Both teams are run first offenses so this one is pretty easy to handicap with both teams ranked top 15 in rushing play % over 60%.

UTEP is better at running the ball averaging 5.0 ypc to Rice's 4.1, and 4.11 in conference play.  UTEP has averaged 4.75 in conference play.  For Rice in their success this season it's more on their defense.  If they win they are stopping opposing running games and on paper it looks good when they are at home allowing just 3.07 ypc.  However, I looked at the numbers and they are not that impressive.  They allowed two opponents to rush over 4 yards per carry. The opponent rushing ypc ranks were 29th (they lost this game), 98th, 108, and 113.  UTEP is ranked 26th and features two solid RB's along with an athletic QB in Jamael Showers.  Rice has allowed over 6 yards per carry in their losses and 2.97 in their wins, but their run defense has not played well against good running teams like UTEP.

UTEP's defense is nothing to get excited about either and on paper they are just as bad, but this team is improving and has held all 4 of their last 4 opponents under 100 yards rushing with just 2 TD's.  That even includes Western Kentucky who is 34th in the nation in rushing ypc while Rice just at 73rd.  Rice does not have the QB that Western Kentucky has either and the Hilltoppers only won that game by 8.

Everything else is pretty similar between these two teams in conference play from while UTEP is a bit better on third down defense and passing defense Rice is better in the red zone, but at the end of the day both teams are similar, both want to run the ball and that gives me the feeling of close and tight game with Rice just losing to Marshall and looking ahead to LA Tech I think UTEP could surprise them.  This is a team on the rise and this would be a huge upset worth more than any other win on the year except of course a bowl win because this team does not have a winning record in 10 years.  

K State +3 -115 5* NCAAF POD

Since West Virginia has joined the Big 12, November has not been a good month with Dana Holgorsen going 2-8.  Kansas State and Bill Snyder hold a significant advantage in coaching and the fact that both teams have 11 days to prepare gives me a strong lean towards Bill Snyder and Kansas State coming off a big loss.  This is a perfect opportunity and I really like what the captains have been saying in the media about their opportunity to get over that loss to TCU.  Kansas State is 22-7 ATS in their last 29 following a SU loss of 20+ points, and they are 15-3 ATS (83% ANGLE!!) in their last 18 following a SU loss all together.  Here is the coaching mismatch though... Dana Holgorsen since joining the Big12 with West Virginia is 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS with extra preparation.  He clearly does not know how to get his players prepared for games with extra rest.  His only 2 wins were when they were 4 TD+ favorites and he's had numerous fails as a home favorite.  Bill Snyder on the other hand is 7-1 SU & ATS during that same time period with his only loss vs. a nasty and athletic Oregon team in a bowl game.

Extra preparation and trends are not enough to just write in a W for the Wildcats so I took it deeper.  Both teams have won when they can run the ball and stop the run.  Both have had success stopping the run in conference play when they have faced vanilla rushing offenses, but have struggled vs. teams with a running QB.  Kansas State has the running QB in Waters and the blocking to go with it while West Virginia does not.  West Virginia is giving up 4.72 ypc on the year in conference play.  Meanwhile Kansas State has really only struggled in run defense twice.  Against Oklahoma and TCU which feature more dynamic rushing offenses than West Virginia.  Similarly their rushing offense has only been stopped 3 times.  All 3 of those oppoennts ranked inside the top 50 in stopping the run (Auburn, Texas, and TCU), while West Virginia ranks 97th.  They've given up 5.90 yards per carry in losses and 3.70 in wins.

I took it a step further and looked at Trickett and Waters both veteran QB's at this stage in their career.  Trickett's numbers look a bit better because of hte offense he's in but Waters has better numbers in conference play with a 152QB rating while Trickett has 135 passing for just 11 TD's and 7 INT's.  He'll have issues against Kansas State too because they have allowed just 8 TD passes to 9 INT's in conference play.  West Virginia's pass defense is very very good, but that's not at all how Kansas State tries to win.  Kansas State will rely on their unique rushing offense with a few passes sprinkled in and they have the talent at receiver in Sexton and Lockett to give the Mountaineers issues.

Stats do not lie at this point in the season and it's clear Kansas State is the better team coming into a better situation.  Their 3rd down offense in conference play is considerably better, but their red zone offense and defense is what makes me super confident in this play.  In the red zone over 6 conference games, Kansas State has 27 attempts converting 74% into TD's while on defense they have allowed 18 att and 55% TD's.  Compared with West Virginia who has 21 attempts over 7 games in the red zone converting just 57% and allowing 70% TD's over 20 attempts.  Red zone is where these tight battles are won and I give a significant advantage to Kansas State who knows how to get the most out of their opportunities.  

[b]Northern Illinois -2.5 -106 3.5* play[/b]

This year's Northern Illinois team is not nearly as good on both sides of the ball, but they are still an elite rushing team.  Ohio is not what it used to be and they are 0-2 SU and ATS vs. the MAC West which is a much better division.  Actually it's not even close.  Ohio lost by 21 and 18 to the other 2 MAC West teams it has faced both are below Northern Illinois in the standings.  Collectively if you take all of the MAC East teams they are 3-12 vs. the MAC West and recruiting is a big reason why.

Part of why Ohio is a small favorite is extra time off, home, and a solid run defense ranked 35th overall.  However, almost all of their stats are worse in conference play from rushing and passing offense to defense.  I would not trust this team at all and even their run defense is a bit misleading as they have only played 2 other teams ranked in the top 50 in rushing offense and lost to both of them.  Northern Illinois is ranked 28th in yards per carry and has shown they are even better when playing in conference.  I expect them to win this game and move on to Western Michigan.  I'm not biting on the look ahead it seems the line has already factored that in. If you are worried at all Northern Illinois defense is giving up an entire yard less per play on the road and Ohio's offense is very bad ranking 84th in yards per play offense.

Arkansas pk 5.5* SEC GOY

Arkansas has not won an SEC game since early 2012 against Kentucky.  It has not really been their fault this year considering their 5 opponents are Auburn, A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Miss State.  Arkansas played MIss State and Alabama in similar fashion to what LSU did.  Actually they played better than LSU did against Miss State.  I just think this is the perfect spot for Arkansas to finally get their first SEC win.  They come off a bye, and LSU comes off a very physical game at home that went to OT against their biggest rival in Alabama.  This is a hang over spot for LSU or they will just be more banged up than a fresh Arkansas team that is hungry to finally win a conference game and get back into the possibility of going to a bowl game.

This LSU team is built on the running game much like Arkansas so I took a look at what each team did in conference play and at home and away and Arkansas comes back with more balance and the better run defense.  If LSU was capable of passing the ball this could be a different story, but Anthony Jennings has a 120 QB rating and is completing less than 50% of his passes.  Jennings shocked Arkansas last year at home with a 49 yard TD pass with 1:15 to play to capture a 31-27 victory over Arkansas.  Arkansas has been close to an SEC win numerous times and now they get a true home game.  LSU is making just its 3rd true road game and the numbers aren't good.

LSU rushing offense in conference games is averaging 4.14 ypc and they are backed by a very good and veteran offensive line, but on the road just 3.45 yards per carry.  LSU comes to the line and makes a lot of checks which is a big reason why they will struggle on the road.  They also are not blessed with a balanced attack so the defense knows what is coming.  Arkansas ont he other hand has Brandon Allen who is more efficient and complete nearly 60% of his passes 15 TD and 5 INT.  He's got a next level TE in Hunter Henry making plays each and every game.  Arkansas rushing offense has been slightly better in conference play 4.29 ypc, but 5.77 at home.

LSU's rushing defense has been hit or miss 4.71 ypc in conference play they allowed 150 more yards against Miss State than Arkansas did.  Arkansas has played well against physical running teams holding both Miss State and Alabama in check.  Their defense has allowed 4.64 ypc in conference play (less than LSU) and 3.25 at home.  Arkansas also finally faces an SEC team that can't pass the ball.  All 5 opponents had QB's with passer ratings above 150 which is just insane when you consider all 5 can also run the ball.  Arkansas should be able to play defense with the extra prep and do their thing on offense to dominate time of possession.  Their defense has held opponents to 30% conversions on third down at home while LSU has only converted 28% of theirs on the road.  In the end it will be Brandon Allen will be the reason why Arkansas comes away with a win on a very very cold night. 

Florida St -2.5 4.4* 

Miami is the hot pick for a lot of experts, but I'm certainly not buying it.  I get Florida State has looked very beatable this year.  It is almost as if they are bored out there, but playing their in state rival Miami that won't be the case.  I also don't think that this will be a true home game for Miami.  Miami has had issues getting their fans to the stadium and I think Florida State fans will make up 40% of the crowd here tonight.

Miami will have to score more than 30 points to win this game.  I don't see it happening with a freshmen QB given how well Florida State has stopped the running game this year with only 4 of their 9 opponents reaching the end zone on a rushing TD.  They are allowing 3.08 yards per carry meaning Brendan Kayya has to win this game at some point and I don't see it happening.  Why 30 points?  Well Florida State has scored 30+ points in every single game Jameis Winston has played. 

Miami has won 3 in a row by 21+ but they were against average teams.  Miami this year is just 1-3 against ranked opponents this year.  Their home win against Duke was nice, but Duke is very much one dimensional with just a running game while Florida State has the best pocket QB in the nation since Andrew Luck.  Florida State has the significant advantage in the red zone with 78% success rate in conference play as far as TD% is concerned while Miami is allowing 69%.  Florida State's defense in the red zone has been great allowing 41% TD's in conference play and Miami is sitting at 44% struggling to score in the red zone and convert on third downs with just 28% on the season.  I don't see how they can score over 30 and win this game.

Texas +4.5/Bama -2.5 7pt -130 teaser 4*[/b]

Alabama is coming off a huge win while Miss State is coming off a bye.  I think Miss state has been resting for this game for a while, but I just don't think they have enough to get the win.  Alabama just matches up too well with their run defense and the fact that their best player on the field is a WR in Amari Cooper.  MIss State is the worst in the SEC and one of the worst in the nation in pass defense and that's not a characteristic a #1 team in the nation can carry.  Alabama has been absolutely dominant at home this year and I think they win this one by a 1-2 TD's.  I'll tease it with Texas for the fact that Alabama is coming off a physical game and MIss State had the bye.

Texas is quietly turning their season around 3 wins in 4 games and they need 1 more to get to a bowl.  The defense has been absolutely dominant and they should be again today.  Oklahoma State is not a good team and Texas has handled bad teams this year.  All of Oklahoma State's stats are worse in conference play.  The two most shocking stats about this team is their QB play which has been significantly down this year compared to recent history and their ability to force turnovers.  Oklahoma State has been a guarantee for 30+ turnovers a season over the last 5 years and they have gotten big wins because of that, but this season they don't even have 10 forced turnovers and it has really hurt them.  Texas will control this game and win in the red zone where their offense and defense has significant advantages.

Georgia -2.5 2.2* play

I have said all year that Auburn does not have the same team as a year ago and it was prove last week against Texas A&M as a 3 TD favorite.  They even had a chance to win it in the end but 2 TO's cost them and now I don't see how this team gets up for this game.  They need a miracle to win their division to get back into the national title talk.  Meanwhile Georgia can run the table and get into the tournament with an SEC Championship which is not that crazy.

Auburn wins when they stop the run allowing 3.25 ypc in wins and 5.05 in losses.  A&M and MIss State ran for 5.03 and 5.07 yard per carry while Ole Miss who should have won ran for 4.87.  Georgia can most certainly run the ball here in this won with Todd Gurley back to go along with Nick Chubb arguably the best tandem that Auburn has faced all year.  Mix in the fact that Huston Mason has been accurate with 69% completion percentage and given how bad the Auburn pass defense has been I think Georgia can win this one by double digits.  Goergia has been waiting for this game for a while after last year's tip ball loss.  I suffered a max ATS loss in that game, but I think Georgia gets their revenge.  They haven't been at home in well over a month and their defense will play well here.  Auburn's turnover issues will come back up as Georgia takes care of the ball with only 6 turnovers all season!

Tulane/Memphis U47.5 3.3* play

Tulane should play this game hard believing they can get to 6 wins after last week's win over Houston on the road.  The offense put up 31 points, but it was mainly due to the fact that they forced 5 turnovers.  Memphis does not turn the ball over and that should keep this game under the total in my opinion.  Both of these teams are run first squads who win with defense.  Memphis runs the ball 58% of the time, but they are not doing it well enough at just 3.44 ypc and could have issues moving the ball.  Tulane's secondary is excellent and the strength of the defense so Memphis really won't have a reason not to run the ball.  

Tulane was held to less than 15 points in 5 of their last 6 games and Memphis defense is arguably one of the best it will face.  Memphis shut down Ole Miss 24 oints and Cincinnati to 14 on the road.  It's hard to figure Tulane would get more than 10 points here yet the spread is dropping from 11 to 9 in favor of Tulane.  I think we can expect a low scoring game and that's the reason the spread is dropping.  Both teams have a hard time converting on 3rd down at just 36% while both red zone defenses are excellent.  Tulane is only allowing 47.5% TD percentage in the red zone while 35% in conference play.  Neither offense is converting above 70% in the red zone for TD% and Memphis too has had success with 41.67% red zone defense in conference play.  This all leads me to believe this game will be played under 20 pts by each team.

North Carolina -2.5 2.2* Play

Both teams are off a bye here and I'll take North Carolina, a team that is much more experienced than Pitt.  Pitt's team is one of the youngest in the country and it's starting to show late.  The bye will certainly help, but they will be on the road against UNC who is also coming off the bye.

Pitt is allowing 5.68 ypc in their losses on the ground and 2.15 in their wins.  The only opponents they allowed to rush under 4 yards per carry are ranked 88th or worse.  North Carolina features a dual threat QB in Marquise Williams and Pitt just has not seen a player like him all year long.  Pitt's run defense has been an issue in conference play and it's carried over to their red zone defense where they are allowing a 70% TD percentage.  UNC may not have much of a defense, but they can certainly come up with a few stops and win the TO margin in this one as Pitt's defense has only forced 11 TO"s on the year and are -6.

Iowa  -3 -120 buy hook 4* Early Bird

I'll take Iowa who is an amazing 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games following a SU loss.  That is purely on coaching and their is a reason why Kirk Ferentz has been at Iowa forever.  Illinois is 6-16 ATS int heir last 22 conference games and actually beat Minnesota in their last home game, the same team that Iowa just got blasted by 51-14.  This line would have been -7 or so if Iowa did not lay an egg on the road last season and they need a win here to get into a decent bowl game.  Illinois is in a difficult spot here coming off a bye they are starting their QB Wes Lunt who has ridiculous passing numbers, but he has not played since October 4th. 

Somehow Lunt has avoided every top pass defense on the schedule.  His 5 starts have been against pass defense that are all outside the top 75 with the addition of an FCS opponent.  Lunt has not played in over a month and now he has to come back to face Iowa who is 2nd in passing yards allowed and top 10 in every other pass defense category.  Illinois does not have a running game to lean on like the other teams that Iowa has struggled against on their schedule.  Illinois running offense and defense is -3.7 yards per carry in conference play.  They allow over 6.5 and have rushed for just 3.07 in conference play.  Iowa will bounce back again here.  When they lose it's usually turnovers that hurt them with -5 in losses +4 in wins.  Their last two road games produced 6 turnovers against Maryland and Minnesota.  Both those teams are very good at forcing turnovers with 27 in their home games combined.  Illinois is -8 in turnover margin and has forced only 6 in 5 conference games.  Illinois is also very poor in red zone defense allowing 75% red zone TD percentage to conference foes while Iowa is averaging 70% in conference play.  The running game and play action over the top to the TE's will allow Iowa to control and dominate this game.

[b]Cal +14.5 3.3* POD[/b]

The only teams USC has blown out this year have been Fresno, Oregon State, Colorado and Washington State.  All of those teams are unlikely to go bowling with a combined record of 13-25.  California is definitely experiencing a resurgence here this season and even their losses are not that bad.  The big losses against Washington and Oregon were due to fumble issues the offense had otherwise they played well with both but had nearly half their turnovers all year in that game.  Cal played right with UCLA and Arizona in 2 games decided by 6 points.  

USC has had issues stopping opponent passing games and Jared Goff should have another big day and improve on his 27 TD and 4 interceptions this year.  Goff is also doign it in the conference with 21 TD and 3 INT's.  He's played well on the road too and USC's pass rush has been non-existent ranking 89th in sack % and they are 100th in passing yards allowed.  USC also has some bigger games up next @UCLA and Notre Dame and could be looking ahead a bit.

[b]Bills +10.5 / Cincinnati +7.5 3.3* Teaser[/b] 

Akron -4 2.2* Play

I'll take Akron the fact they are road favorites by this much says a lot about Buffalo.  Akron really was not as bad as last week's loss to Bowling Green.  There was some tough weather that really limited what this team could do and I think they'll be a lot more agressive here tonight agaisnt Buffalo.  Akron's offense have faced 3 tough defensive units in a row and now they'll face Buffalo, a team ranked 119th in yards per play allowed, Akron is ranked 40th and have shut down some pretty good offenses along the way (Penn State/Pitt).  Terry Bowden was supposed to take this team to a MAC East title, but he can still get to a bowl game and it starts tonight with two winnable games on deck. 

Toledo +185 2* play

I'll take Toledo + the points here as we are getting some extra value due to the fact that their QB Logan Woodside is a game time decision.  I think it won't matter with this team, and I think they match up agaisnt Northern Illinois really well this year with the best defensive line in the league.  All of their conference stats are better than Northern Illinois, a team we bet on last week which had a big win on the road against Ball State, but this team has struggled at home and they are not the same defense as years past and their QB on the otherside in Drew Hare is not as good as prior QB's and I think Toledo finally gets past this team. 

Do not sell Toledo's back up QB short. If given a shot Michael Julian, a redshirt freshmen has been waiting and he turned down some major conference offers from teams including Arizona, clemson and Wisconsin.  The running game is what fuels this team and Northern Illinois is allowing 4.81 yards per carry in conference play while Toledo is allowing 3.99.  Both have 3 common opponents and Toledo has an average MOV of 11.8 while Northern Illinois is 2-1 with a 0 point margin of victory.  Take Toledo to pull the shocker here tonight. 

Alabama -6.5 4.4* play

Both teams come off a bye for this highly anticipated match up.  For me this match up is pretty easy as both teams are going to try to runt he ball before they pass.  Alabama is more equiped to do it and stop it.  LSU is a young team and they are getting credit for their win against Ole MIss who is more of a finesse team, and their 34-29 loss against Miss State.  Alabama is angry they are not in the top 4 and they have had 2 weeks to think about it.  Expect a big win for them and LSU is definitely suspect to that type of a loss because they are extremely young.  We saw them get behind Wisconsin (very similar style to Alabama) 24-7, and Miss State (very similar style to Alabama) 31-10 and they lost to Auburn 41-7 on the road.  Alabama will get up and they won't look back in my opinion.

LSU is 94th in yards per carry defense.  Against Auburn, MIss State and Wisconsin who are all similar in rushing to Alabama, LSU allowed over 6 yards per carry and ran for less than 4 yards per carry themselves.  Alabama is the better run defense 3rd in the country, and has the better passing game to balance it out.  Crimson Tide's QB Blake Simms has a 172 QB rating, 15 TD/ 3 INT and is averaging 10.2 yards per passing attempt.  Amari Cooper will not allow LSU to try to stop the run and this pass defense that has been solid is vulnerable to big passing plays.  Against Miss State and Auburn they allowed 11 plays for over 20 yards and that's something that shows up in the tape for Nick Saban.  LSU does not have to worry as much about LSU passing it since they run it 67% of the time behind a veteran offensive line.  Alabama though is the best run defense this group has faced and I already mentioned how they struggled against Wisconsin, Auburn and Miss State rushing for

Michigan St -3 -120 5.5* POD

This is my play of the day.  A lot is on the line here for both teams and the Big Ten.  I think it could come down to a field goal for Michigan State who has shown issues late in games against Oregon and Nebraska.  However, I like their chances here at home.  Again similar to the LSU/Alabama match up both teams want to establish the run as they are both in the top 20 in rushing play % at over 60%.  Both teams are capable of stopping and running the ball which I will get to in a second.  Before looking at that you have to see if either team can have any sort of balance with their passing game to keep a defense honest and Michigan State has the better chance. 

Connor Cook and the offensive line is very much under rated.  He's got a 163 QB rating and does not make mistakes.  The offensive line is ranked 7th in pass protection and he's only been sacked 1.1% of his drop backs at home.  Ohio State can't claim the same ranking 84th in pass protection, but allowing a whopping 12.12% sacked % on the road which should have MIchigan State's defense licking their chops as they rank 8th in pass rush.  Now JT Barret has looked great this season, but against who?  The two decent defenses he's faced he's struggled with 2 TD passes and 5 INT's and the offense put up 17 pts and 21 pts in regulation against Penn State and VA Tech.  The loss to VA TEch looks worse and worse considering how they have played since and that defense is not stopping the run any more.

Speaking of the run.. On paper Ohio State is ranked 18th in run defense and Michigan State is ranked 30th, but the Spartans have faced 6 teams in the top 60, 4 of which are in the top 25.  Ohio State meanwhile just 2 in the top 75.  So the numbers are way off and Ohio State's home/away splits are about 1 yard worse on both sides.  Michigan State's rushing game is also better ranking 18th at 5.5 yards per carry and have faced 3 teams ranked in the top 60 rushing defense.  For Ohio State they rank 23rd, but only 1 opponent in the top 60 in rushing defense which was Penn State.  Ohio State managed just 293 yards in 2 OT's vs. the Nittany Lions.  The other opponents are an average 94th vs. the run.  

Not to be taken for granted is the fact that Mich State has an extra week to prepare and were 3-0 in that scenario last year.  They also have arguably the nation's best punter in Mike Sadler. 

Kansas State +6 3.3* play

Kansas State is probably the most challenging opponent to date for TCU and I just think 6 points is too much.  Kansas State does everything well they are a disciplined balanced team that nearly beat Auburn at home and probably should have beaten Auburn at home. To me the better defense will win this game and Kansas State is more equiped to stop the run.  TCU has allowed 3 teams to reach 30+ points while Kansas State has only allowed 1.  TCU's two closest games against Oklahoma and their loss against Baylor were games where they were held under 4 yards per carry.  Kansas State is 8th in the nation in run defense allowing opponents to rush for 3.1 ypc. 

Kansas State doesn't just get it done in run defense they have faced 6 QB's from power 5 conferences and have allowed just 8 TD passes and 9 INT's with only 6 gains over 25 yards.  They also have held multiple mobile QB's like Boykin in check in fact QB's have averaged just 2.34 ypc.  Kansas State's offense is under rated their QB Jake Waters is efficient and has next level WR that are falling under the radar especially Tyler Lockett who is going to be difficult to guard for Kevin White.  Kansas State does not turn the ball over and that's something TCU has relied on to get big wins.  Kansas State has turned it over just 7 times all year while TCU has forced 26.  TCU's run defense will be challenged in Kansas State's only loss they were held under 100 yards rushing, but TCU is allowing 3.90 yards per carry in conference play.  Kansas State should be able to pick up yardage and create third and short.  They are converting 49% of their third downs on the season and in conference play.  That goes along with their 73% TD percentage in the red zone which will be hard for TCU to defend.

Texas +3.5 3.3* Play

This is West Virginia's most challenging road game as they played Alabama on a neutral site.  West Virginia's defense has been the real story of late.  It can give certain teams fits, but not Texas as they have put up 47 and 45 points the last two years.  Those Texas offenses were no better than this years version and I see more potential with Texas this year.  Tyrone Swopes has now played great in 3 of their last 4 games.  West Virginia at the end of the day is still an average defense ranking 70th in yards per play meanwhile Texas is ranked 13th. 

Texas has a real shot at a bowl game here, but this is the must win they need and I think they will get.  West Virginia struggles with a physical running game that Texas will try to impose with play action and option running sprinkled in with Swopes.  West Virginia is allowing 5.63 yards per carry on the road and have allowed big games against some bad running teams like Maryland who doubled their season average and Oklahoma State who ranked 98th but averaged 4.97 ypc.  Texas is improving averaging 4.5 ypc over their last 3.  You can tell this team is buying in.

Northern Illinois -3 3.3* play

This is an excellent match up for Northern Illinois even on the road.  Teams that can run the ball typically can compete on the road and the fact that Ball State is allowing 5.6 yards per carry ranking 116th looks good for the Huskies.  Ball State has allowed 5.57 ypc in losses and 4.00 in wins.   Ball State was getting a lot of credit for their wins lately, but their win over Akron last week suddenly doesn't look very good.  Northern Illinois on the other hand just got done playing the two worst teams in the MAC and arguably the country in Eastern Mich and Miami (OH).  They have been looking towards this game for a while along with Toledo next week.  Northern Illinois is running the ball 64% of the time ranking 23rd in yards per carry 5.3, but has been even better in conference play at 6.18.  The two teams that Ball State has faced that can run the ball they lost to. That includes Western Mich who averaged 4.7 pc on the year and ran for 6.93.

Northern Illinois has also had much more of a challenging schedule when you look at the fact that they faced Northwestern and Arkansas and only one other FCS school while Ball State faced Iowa and 2 FCS schools in non-conference.  Northern Illinois should be up for this game and the value is there considering they have lost their last 5 ATS.  This is a midweek game with national exposure on ESPN!

[b]Bowling Green +180 4* play[/b]

These are two similar teams coming into tonight's MAC contest.  Both like to throw the ball much more than they like to run.  On the season it appears Bowling Green is a bit better on offense while Akron is significantly better on defense.  However I don't really know if that's true.

Akron's defense has faced only 2 teams in the top 60 in offense (yds/play), while Bowling Green has faced 6.  Bowling Green in previous years has been known for their defense and known for turning it up after their byes late in the season.  Tonight they get that opportunity.  They were 111th in opponent passer rating on the season, but over their last 3 they have allowed 116 QB rating.  Same goes for yards per play on the season 117th, but over their last 3 just 4.7 which would be top 25. Conference stats suggest they are better than Akron on defense almost.  Akron's biggest problem here will be their offense ranking 120th in yards per play yet they have only played two teams in the top 50 in defense.  Bowling Green has faced 2 bad offenses on the season VMI (held them to 7 pts) and Ohio held them to 13 points on the road.  In fact Bowling Green won 31-13 on the road against Ohio while Akron lost 20-23.

This is a huge game for Bowling Green already up in the Mac East by 1 game and a win here would just about clinch their division title.  They are also getting 7 extra days to prepare for this game compared with what Akron has.  Akron is just 17-35-1 ATS int heir last 53 conference games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games while Bowling Green is 19-7 in their last 26 games in November.  Bowling Green can protect their QB better 10th in protection, and they can run better at 4.66 ypc giving them some balance on the road will allow them to pull off the upset. 

San Jose State +6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

Colorado State is looking like the real deal at 7-1 winning on the road against Boston College.  IN all three of their close games and losses have come against top 60 pass defenses.  Grayson leads Colorado State with a 165 QB rating in 4 conference games, but he’s not as good on the road (136).  They won by 3 vs. Utah State who has the 30th ranked pass defense, by 3 against BC who has the 57th, and they lost against Boise State by 13 who is ranked 47th.  Enter San Jose State who is ranked #1 in opponent QB rating, #1 in opponent yards/attempt, and #1 in opponent completion %.  They even held Auburn to 135 yards passing and they have allowed just 1 passing TD all year without any QB passing for more than 150 yards.

Part of their dominance is nobody tries to pass on them, but Colorado State is averaging less than 3 yards per carry in the running game and will have issues on the road against this team.  San Jose State would have a better record if it weren’t for their -7 TO margin in losses.  Good news for them Colorado State’s defense is below average and has only forced a total of 7 turnovers on the season.  A further look at common opponents and San Jose was +194 vs. Wyoming on the road, Col State was +104 at home.  As well as +190 vs. Nevada and while Colorado State was -12 on the road.  San Jose State has been a dog 2 of the last 3 years but have won all of these meetings.  Colorado State is a very good team, but San Jose State has already played Navy, Minnesota and Auburn so this is nothing new for them.

Ole Miss -2 4.4* SEC Game of the Week

Auburn is a one dimensional offense ranked 84th in pass and 10th in the run and same goes for their defense they can’t seem to stop the pass, but they are solid vs. the run.  Ole Miss strengths fit nice here and they have a solid balanced defense that is one of the best in the nation ranking top 25 in pass and run defense.  LSU wasn’t supposed to beat Ole Miss and the offense looked horrible and now we get a spread that’s at least 2 points in our advantage.  If Ole Miss wins that game we are looking at them at a -4 favorite in my opinion.  This was a 30-22 game last year and Auburn is clearly not the same team, but they are being treated like they are following a 395 yard effort on the ground (a season high) in their last game, but that was against South Carolina ranked 124th in rushing defense.

Ole Miss leans on Bo Wallace to play a good game to win, and I have never trusted him on the road so I wasn’t surprised to see him looking lost at LSU at night with all the noise.. Now people forget what he did against Alabama.  People forget what this team did against Alabama.  Auburn notoriously wins with big plays and Ole Miss is 3rd allowing just 4.2 yards per play and even better 3.6 at home which is good for 3rd in the country.  Auburn’s two struggles this year have been against Miss State 13th passing the ball, and Kansas State 24th.  Now they face Ole Miss who has the passing game and a better defense than both.  This is basically an elimination game and I’ll take Ole Miss at home to win it. 

Kentucky +8 3.3* Play

Kentucky nearly upset Miss State at home, and they have clearly shown they are  team on the rise.  Mark Stoops knows how to coach and recruit and they had a top 20 recruiting class this past year already showing dividends.  They get back Boom Williams which should help the offense find more balance.  Patrick Towles however is showing he’s going to be able to play at the next level and is living up to his 4 star ranking coming out of high school.

Missouri’s offense is just terrible right now, they rank 113th passing the ball as they lost a ton of weapons from last year and Matty Mauk just looks lost.  That should allow Kentucky to gear up to stop the run.  These teams have 3 common opponents in SEC play and Kentucky is better in +/- yardage in all three.  This spread is still hinging on the brand of Missouri football (from last year) and the fact that Kentucky hasn’t been good in a very long time, but that’s starting to change.  Missouri has not played well at home and I don’t see that changing here. 

Northwestern +4 2.2* Early Bird Play

I don’t typically look into strength of schedule too much, but both Iowa and Northwestern look pretty even statistically on paper as both have struggling offenses and have been led by their defenses and both are coming off byes.  This will be Northwestern’s third game in a row facing an opponent off a bye and they lost their last 2, but at least they will be off a bye themselves which should help here.  A close look at Iowa’s defense ranked 26th in yards/play allowed reveals they have faced an average 74.5 ranked offense form a yds/play perspective without a single opponent in the top 50.  To put that in perspective Northwestern’s defense has faced 4 in the top 50 and an average of 43rd.   Looking at the stats I’d say Northwestern’s unit is more equipped to have a better defensive game.

Offensively Iowa has faced an average 80th ranked defense form a yards/play perspective and again not a single opponent in the top 50.  Northwestern’s average opponent defense ranked 43rd and they have faced 4 in the top 30 so it’s no wonder their offense has struggled.  Northwestern’s defense has held every single team under their season average in rushing yards per carry with exception of Wisconsin who they ironically beat.  Iowa is average already ranking 89th in rushing the ball and should have issues moving the ball.  I’m expecting a low scoring game here and I’ll take the under dog that’s not getting credit.  You could argue that 4 or 5 of Northwestern’s opponents are better than the top 2 teams that Iowa faced which is Pitt and Maryland.   Pat Fitzgerald has also had a lot of success against Iowa 5-3 all time and 3-2 on the road.