UCLA +3.5 -120 3.5* Play
This is a rematch of last year's Big 10 vs. PAC 12 showdown and UCLA shocked Nebraska 36-30 at home last year with a rookie head coach and a freshmen QB as they put up 653 yards on Nebraska. Things have not gotten any better for Nebraska's defense that allowed 1,229 yards in their final 2 games last year and now they bring back an undersized linebacking crew and have 10 freshmen playing in a two deep defensive roster. We saw Nebraska struggle in their first game against Wyoming as dual threat QB Brett Smith passed for 383 yards and ran for 92. Brett Hundley is much more athletic and more talented and has better weapons. Nebraska held on to beat Wyoming by only 3 in that game and UCLA will have an extra week to prepare for this game. The early start has been up for debate but UCLA practices at 7AM and have regular lift schedules before 6AM and I expect them to be ready by kickoff. It also helps that they return 4 of the 5 starting offensive linemen and RB Jordon James looks as good as Jonathan Franklin at RB.

UCLA's defense had a nice warm up against this type of offense when they faced Nevada's Cody Fajardo and the defense dominated. The real weakness of this unit is the secondary, but I still have a ton of doubts on Taylor Martinez ability to beat a defense that has terrific front 7 with athletic linebackers which UCLA does. Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks are good as any linebacking duo that Nebraska will see in the Big Ten and that's usually when Nebraska struggles. UCLA will be able to force this team to be one dimensional and their aggressive front 7 should be able to force some turnovers when they get some tackles for loss and force Nebraska into third and longs. UCLA was 6th in sack % last year and was even better on the road ranked 2nd with a 12.55% behind only South Carolina.

Bowling Green +3 3.3* Early Bird Play Bowling Green is a serious contender for the MAC title this year and facing Indiana should not fear them. This is a team that went into the swamp (Florida Gators) and were tied 14-14 last year as a very young team. Now this team returns 19 starters and is extremely deep. To put things in perspective they have 11 upper class-men with playing experience in the secondary alone. Indiana's up tempo offense should not phase this unit and I actually think they match up very well. For one Indiana is one dimensional thus far this season as their offensive line has been unable to get any sort of push up front for consistent runs while Bowling Green has always been very strong up front. This will force Indiana into a lot of third and longs on Saturday and Bowling Green was ranked 3rd in third down defense % allowing just 28.07% conversions a year ago. That also translated over the red zone where they held teams to 50% TD %. This defense was also +23 in sacks compared to what their offense gave up +21 tackles for loss and +4 turnovers. Bowling Green will have a balanced offensive attack and they'll dominate the time of possession battle in this one as Indiana will struggle again on defense. They gave up 400 + yards rushing to Navy last week and they knew the run was coming. Indiana has lost the last two years in close games to Ball State at home and this Bowling Green team figures to be even better. I'll go with the defensive team in this one.

TCU -3 4.4* NCAAF POD
TCU had a really challenging opening week against LSU, but they held their own considering they shuffeled between two QB's, but now Pachal's out againa and it's Trevor Boykin's job again which I like it makes this offense more dynamic with ability to run (585 rushing yards last year). Boykin had a great game vs. Tech last year 330+ yards passing 4 passing TD's. However TCU turned the ball over 3 times, but still hung in there but only to lose 56-53 in 3 OT's. Revenge is sweet and I think Garry Patterson did a terrif job last year with a young inexperienced roster that had a lack of depth. The team actually was 5-1 on the road beat two ranked teams in their own building. That shows just how good this team can be moving forward now that they return 16 starters. Wayman James is back again who has averaged 7.6 ypc since 2011 and pairing him with Boykin is a scary thought. I think TCU can run wild against Tech tonight.

Meanwhile Texas Tech has had a ton of success with walk on freshmen Baker Mayfield, but that was against SMU and SF Austin. Now they face TCU and Gary Patterson who obviously will have a better game plan than last year. Mayfield has had a daylight behind a new offensive line in his first two games, but now he'll play a defensive line that features Devonte Fields who was the Big 12 defensive player of the year. TCU also returns all 5 of their guys in the secondary including Jason Vervett. I expect them to play man and agressive against Mayfield who won't have time to get to his third progression. This should result in turnovers and sweet revenge in Texas Tech's backyard.

UNLV +10.5 3.3* PLAY ; UNLV +345 1* PLAY
UNLV returned 18 starters from last years team that seemed to start to turn the corner a bit for a very under rated coach in Bobby Hauck. However, they just had a bad game at Minnesota but if you look at the box score they outgained them by 120 yards had more first downs and held Minnesota's offense in check which is actually pretty similar in terms of run/pass % to what Arizona is looking to do. So what happened against Minnesota that had them lose 51-23 and give us tremendous value in this spot? They gave up 98 yard kick return, a block FG returned for a TD and a 89 yard interception return for a TD. That is easily 17 point swing or at least take away the 21 points Minnesota got and you have a different game.

We actually had UNLV as our pick that night and I truly feel we just got unlucky and that our luck will turn around in this game and I wouldn't be shocked to see UNLV pull off a shocker. Arizona passed for just 87 yards last week and truly are searching for a QB. They do get Ka'Deem Carey back at RB this week, but their offensive line depth is not close to what it was last year and they don't have QB Matt Scott along with stud WR Austin Hill to keep a defense honest. Arizona may win this game heck they may even blow out UNLV, but I think the Rebels are closer than what people are thinking especially with how they played at home on both sides of the ball converting 51% of their third downs allowing just 38% and averaging 4.93 ypc with the effect Tim Cornett at RB. This team is dangerous at home just ask Nevada who they nearly beat as +14 dogs last year, or an Air Force team that they beat as +8.5 or even Minnesota who beat them by 3 at UNLV as double digit favorites.

Michigan -175 3.5* play Michigan should be pumped up for this game at home and at night makes for a very challenging environment for Notre Dame. I think Michigan is set up much better for success with Devin Garner than they were with Denard Robinson. Robinson was a freakish athlete, but it was obvious when teams had a good front 7 that he could not do what was needed to win. I believe Gardner is different, but more importantly Fitz Toussaint looked like his old self last week and Notre Dame gave up 134 yards on 4.6 ypc to Temple and struggled offensively for really most of the game. I know Tommy Rees put up big numbers but that was against Temple now he goes on the road to Michigan and I don't think it happens. It took 6 forced turnovers last year to get a 13-6 win over Michigan and it was just the story of Notre Dame's season. They just seemed to be in the right place at the right time for most of the year until the national championship. Notre Dame has superior talent up front with Nix and Tuitt but I think Michigan can move the ball on the edges behind All American tackle Taylor Lewan who will be going up against Tuitt for most of the game. Expect a traditional close battle for most of the game but I don't see how Notre Dame can pull off the upset in front of this crowd.

North Texas +4.5 2.75* play Ohio had a ton of trouble with Louisville and they are usually competitive in just about every game, but they were wiped off the field. They have a nice trio on offense with Tettleton, Blankenship and WR Donte Foster, but it won't be enough here. Every so often the Mean Green show their Texas power and with an extra day of preparation and 16 starters returning for Dan McCarney's third year I think this is the year they go back to a bowl game. North Texas trounced Idaho 40-6 which is not saying much, but they found out already that they are deep at RB behind a veteran offensive line that allowed the fewest sacks in the nation last year. They go up against an Ohio front 7 that has to replace 5 of their starters. That's going to be the difference in this game, because on the road what you have up front and what the other team has up front and it's North Texas advantage in this game. They also have an experienced back 7 including some stars all over the secondary. If Ohio is smart they'll look to run, but I think in the end it will force them into FG's not TD's as North Texas was the best in the Sun Belt a year ago allowing the fewest passing TD's. North Texas has Brelan Chancellor on offense who is getting comparisons to T.Y. Hilton.

South Carolina +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
I honestly think everything is going right for Steve Spurrier and the Gamecocks right now as they not only get a couple of extra days to prepare for this game having played on Thursday but they get Georgia who comes off a physical and emotional loss where they lost to Clemson and lost their best receiver in Malcolm Mitchell which now takes away 40% of Aaron Murray's targets last year when you add in they lost Tavarres King. South Carolina actually beat Clemson at the end of last year 27-17 and South Carolina is actually 5-0 ATS the last 3 years when they have had extra time to prepare in the regular season.

What else is going right? The media has seriously pumped up Jadeveon Clowney after all but elminating him from the Heisman discussion and ripping him for taking plays off. I see this as an opportunity for Clowney to have a big impact on the game and the fact that Murray has one less target that he's used to throwing to should allow South Carolina to be just that much more aggressive. What was also lost in their win against UNC was Bruce Ellington being limited and TE Buster Anderson returning for this game to give Connor Shaw a target over the middle to go along with the speed he has on the outside. The speed is something South Carolina is not used to having but with Shaq Rolland and Dariene Byrd this receiving corps is better than what Georgia is used to seeing. That's a major issue because a defense returning just 3 defensive starters that allowed the Gamecocks to run for 230 yards a year ago will now have to think twice about stacking the box.

In the running game Mike Davis also has more home run speed than Marcus Lattimore had and Brandon Wilds forms a nice punch as the more physical runner along with Shaw as a runner too. I don't think Georgia's defense is ready for this and South Carolina's offensive line is just too big and physical averaging 322 lbs they will wear down on Georgia's front once again on route to victory as Steve Spurrier seems to own Richt going 3-0 int he last 3. Overall Spurrier is 15-5 vs. Georgia who allowed 6 200 yards rushing games last year. Georgia has some nice RB's in Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall, but South Carolina got smaller and more speedy in their line backing corps and I think they should be able to handle it even on the road to get the win.

Florida -2.5 -115 3.5* NCAAF Early Bird
The big question here for what seems to be a one dimensional Florida team is can they run on Miami? Well I believe they can do more than that on Saturday, but running is a definite yes as Miami's defense was just awful last year and they really have not recruited well on this side of the ball for quite some time. This is a group that allowed 4.97 ypc and 29 rushing TD's a year ago and are likely to get bullied up front against a Florida offensive line that returns 87 career starts. Miami's secondary is also young and in transition without any form of pass rush they lack on third down defense and play soft coverage which should open things up a bit for QB Jake Driskell.

While Miami is blessed wit a good QB and RB duo in Stephen Morris and Duke Johnson we saw them struggle at time against solid defenses. Scoring 13, 3, and 20 vs. Kansas State, Notre Dame, and Florida State come to mind. All three of those offenses had strong running games and were able to dominate Miami and I don't see what has changed. Florida had to replace things on defense, but they have a terrific back 7 that will likely play man defense which is something Stephen Morris is not used to seeing. That allows them to stop Duke Johnson which I believe they will. Florida has plenty of talent that is unknown and some good coaching. The defense was arguably the best last year and they were lacking a speed rusher when Ronald Powell went down, but he's back this year and already has a sack in his first game. Miami wants to win this game, but they are not capable of doing what Clemson did to Georgia. This is a Florida team that played pretty well on the road against good QB's as they won at Florida State, Texas A&M a year ago.

Wake Forest +3 3.3* NCAAF play
I like the Deacons here who return more starters than BC with 16, 8 on both sides. I think it also pays that they are moving their offense to the run option which really fits the strengths of their QB Price who was a dual threat option QB in highschool. It's something they should have done a year ago. Meanwhile BC brings back just 14 starters and had plenty of issues last year on defense and on the offense that can not be corrected in a season. I think Wake was better last year than what their season showed us as they had plenty of injuries. They are healthy for this game and I think the defense can play well on the road while BC will still struggle to put pressure on a QB and give up rushing yards (ranked 92nd last year) as they gave up 200+ to Villanova in week 1.

Pittsburgh +11.5 3.3* play; Under 48 2.2* bonus
A teaser is also very tempting in this spot, but I like Pitt and the under for the most part. I think Florida State has a ton of potential again this year, but they have a lot of work to do and I think Pitt is facing them at the right time. Pitt is an under rated program that finally has some stability at coaching in Paul Chryst who took two top 10 teams to the wire last year in Louisville and Notre Dame so don't be shocked to find Pitt in this game. Florida State's head coach Jimbo Fisher had to replace both of his coordinators and his top play maker in QB E.J. Manuel. Red shirt freshman Jameis Winston is getting a lot of hype, but the receiving corps is depleted by injuries and he's going on the road for the first time in a hostile environment against PItt's secondary that ranked 21st in pass efficiency defense last year which returns 3 of their 4 starters. I expect Florida State to run the ball a lot behind that offensive line that brings back 4 of the 5 starters.

Running on Pitt has never been easy on the road and they return 3 of their top 4 defensive linemen inclfffuding Aaron Donald who is NFL worthy. Pitt was int he top 25 in yards per carry allowed at home and the Seminoles running game was hit or miss a year ago. I see Pitt really being able to rely on their veteran secondary and stack the box and play against the run setting up some long third downs. Pittsburgh's offense is intriguing as they bring over Tom Savage who has not started for a few years, but once was a 4 star recruit with a big arm. I expect he has a chip on his shoulder and he's got an NFL target in Devin Street at 6'4. I think Pitt can find some room with their offensive line that averages about 315 lbs against a Florida State defense that has to replace all 4 starters up front. Make no mistake this unit will still be great especially with experience returning in the secondary, but Pitt should be competitive in this game. At the end of the day I see a lot of third down stops and a lot of field goals in a tight battle. Neither team seems to have an ability to pass the ball consistently which has me favoring the under which is 7-2 in Florida State's last 9 road games.

Pittsburgh +11.5 3.3* play; Under 48 2.2* bonus
A teaser is also very tempting in this spot, but I like Pitt and the under for the most part. I think Florida State has a ton of potential again this year, but they have a lot of work to do and I think Pitt is facing them at the right time. Pitt is an under rated program that finally has some stability at coaching in Paul Chryst who took two top 10 teams to the wire last year in Louisville and Notre Dame so don't be shocked to find Pitt in this game. Florida State's head coach Jimbo Fisher had to replace both of his coordinators and his top play maker in QB E.J. Manuel. Red shirt freshman Jameis Winston is getting a lot of hype, but the receiving corps is depleted by injuries and he's going on the road for the first time in a hostile environment against PItt's secondary that ranked 21st in pass efficiency defense last year which returns 3 of their 4 starters. I expect Florida State to run the ball a lot behind that offensive line that brings back 4 of the 5 starters.

Running on Pitt has never been easy on the road and they return 3 of their top 4 defensive linemen inclfffuding Aaron Donald who is NFL worthy. Pitt was int he top 25 in yards per carry allowed at home and the Seminoles running game was hit or miss a year ago. I see Pitt really being able to rely on their veteran secondary and stack the box and play against the run setting up some long third downs. Pittsburgh's offense is intriguing as they bring over Tom Savage who has not started for a few years, but once was a 4 star recruit with a big arm. I expect he has a chip on his shoulder and he's got an NFL target in Devin Street at 6'4. I think Pitt can find some room with their offensive line that averages about 315 lbs against a Florida State defense that has to replace all 4 starters up front. Make no mistake this unit will still be great especially with experience returning in the secondary, but Pitt should be competitive in this game. At the end of the day I see a lot of third down stops and a lot of field goals in a tight battle. Neither team seems to have an ability to pass the ball consistently which has me favoring the under which is 7-2 in Florida State's last 9 road games.

Colorado State -2.5 -115 3* play
These are two similar programs with a lot of question marks, but Colorado was just awful last year. I do like the hire of Mike MacIntyre from San Jose State, but these type of jobs usually take a year to see improvements. MacIntyre had success with the same situation at San Jose, but his first year they went 1-11, then 5-7, and 11-2. Colorado State seems just a bit ahead of Colorado with Jim McElwain in his second year and we really started to see the offense and the team click down the stretch where they went 3-1-1 ATS and averaged 29 points per game. Both teams have 17 starters returning and questions at QB, but I think Colorado Sate is stronger up front where it matters.

Colorado St has a 1-2 punch in Donnell Alexander in Chris Nwake running behind 4 returning starters. They were really solid down the stretch even averaging 4.49 ypc at Boise State (who ranked 24th in run defense ypc last year). Colorado was 123rd in run defense and should be bad again. On the flip side Colorado lost their top 2 offensive linemen, but had major issues running the ball which led to just 29% conversions on third downs. I see more of the same issues even against a new Colorado State defensive line which I think will be better with additions of junior college transfers. Colorado State also returns a strong secondary which could get interesting again Paul Richardson who returns for Colorado after a year off. Richardson can be one of the best receivers in the PAC 12, but he lacks a QB to get him the ball.

California +6 2.2* bonus
Cal has regularly not lived up to expectations, but they are littered with 4 star talent as Jeff Tedford always did an exceptional job recuriting and I think their talent is compatible with Sonny Dykes Air Raid system because they have a lot of depth at WR. The offensive line has to replace 2.5 starters, but there is plenty of potential and being at home the first game should be an advantage. Northwestern was 61st in sack % last year and often struggled to get teams off the field.

Northwestern comes into this game as a heavy road favorite because they are 22nd in the AP poll, but we have learned that means nothing. They have some of the key players back with Cain Kolter and Mack at running back, but they have to replace 3 starters with 97 starts along the offensive line so expect the running game they rely on so much to struggle early in the season. Cal really needed a coaching change and I think there will be a lot of buzz tomorrow night and I won't be surprised to see them defeat a ranked opponent to open up the season.

Washington -3.5 3.3* Late Night Fix
Washington has revenge on their mind after they lost to Boise State in the bowl game on neutral field in Las Vegas. Now they'll play Boise at home to open up the season with 18 returning starters including 10 on offense while Boise returns just 11 total and 5 on defense. That's where Washington will have a huge advantage with Bishop Sankey combining for 279 yards on 30 carries and 6 receptions in the bowl game. Washington is implementing a new spread up tempo attack that should have a big impact in this game if QB Keith Price can run it. Boise is strong on the defensive line with Demarcus Lawrence who was suspended for the bowl game, but they have no depth and they'll have an issue against Washington at home and an OL that made the necessary changes for improvement. I think Price has a big game connecting with Kaseen Williams and the running game should explode as Boise has a completely rebuilt back 7.

Now Boise always comes up with big games when they are not supposed to, but this time they have just 2 returnign starters on the offensive line and Joe Southwick who picked up his play last year at QB will be going into a hostile environment as Washington re-opens their stadium. This will be the loudest opposing crowd that Southwick has played in and I think Washington will have a huge impact on this as they are very strong in the front seven. I don't think Boise will have the time to take advantage of their biggest advantage in this game which is receiving corp vs. the Washington secondary. I look for defensive coordinator to press and jam the Boise receivers to make it difficult for the offense to move the chains.

LA Lafayette +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
The Rajin Cajuns are the favorites to win the Sun Belt conference behind the best player in the Sun Belt in Terrance Broadway. Broadway combined for 26 total TD's nearly 3,000 passing yards and nearly 1,000 rushing yards. He's a dual threat that almost defeated Florida at the swamp last year. They are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games and Mark Hudspeth is a very under rated head coach. This is an explosive and balanced attack with a nice running back in Alonzo Harris who averaged 5.2 ypc, but also runs with conviction at 6-1 and 220 lbs. Broadway also avoid the sack nicely ranking 18th in fewest sack% but even less on the road which shows maturity. On defense 6 the top 8 linebackers return which will be crucial against Arkansas team that only returns 4 offensive starters.

Arkansas lost a lot of guys and then they hired Brett Bielema who now can show off how good of a coach he is in the best conference It will not be a quick turn around as Arkansas receivers are completely depleted losing 57% of their graduates as well as 3 key injuries in the off season. That means they will lean on the running game because they are also breaking in a new QB and Bielema loves to runt eh ball, but the offensive line is breaking in 3 new offensive linemen. Arkansas should be able to move the ball on the ground, but when they get in the red zone they will struggle. Lafayette has the linebackers to make life difficult and Arkansas with a top 20 offensive line, big running back and top receiver a year go could not finish drives so I'm not sure how they'll do it in their first game without those resources. In the end Arkansas is rebuilding while Lafayette is still playing in the now and would love a big win over an SEC team.

Virginia +1 3.3* NCAAF Play
BYU has issues on offensive line and should be fine by the end of the year, but they had issues protecting the QB with two fantastic blockers in the line up and now Braden Brown and Braden Hansen are gone. They also lose two starters up front to the NFL on the defensive side so I think it's asking a lot for BYU to go on the road and win especially with an inexperienced QB in Taysom Hill who will be asked to win the game with his arm because Virginia's defensive front is very good against the run allowing just 3.24 ypc at home a year ago. The problem with Hill winning with his arm is Virginia returns all 4 starters in the secondary and they will have an aggressive approach with the new defensive coordinator Tenuta's style.

Virginia also has a new offensive coordinator in Steve Fairchiwho will bring his NFL experience and prostyle offense, but you will see more running from Virginia they have plenty of depth at running back including Kevin Parks and blue chip prospect. They also have 6 guys with starting experience on the offensive line and three 4* receivers that are upper class-men. Having a new QB won't be a bad thing because between Sims and Rocco Virginia was not very good I think forcing them to run the ball is going to be crucial to the success of this team that needs to get to a bowl game. If they are going to this is a huge game that is a must win.

SMU +4.5 3.3* NCAAF POD
SMU only returns 12 starters (6 on each side), but I think this match up favors them as Texas Tech only returns 5 starters on offense. Hal Mumme takes over as the new offensive coordinator and will run his air raid offense which is very similar to the offense this unit ran a year ago and going up against a Texas Tech secondary that graduated a lot of experience that rarely forced turnovers. Texas Tech also has issues at linebacker size and you can certainly run on them, but more importantly the front 7 was 91st in sack% which means SMU should be able to run their offense without worrying about getting sacked.

Garret Gilbert returns for his senior year and should have a chip on his shoulder. He did not play that well last year and was once a highly touted recruit at Texas, but he's got some weapons on the outside and this unit should be able to move the ball at home against a below average defense on Friday night. Gilbert just can't turn the ball over and facing the Red Raiders it's likely he won't. Texas Tech meanwhile has a new QB and new offensive line and a new head coach. A lot changes and it's a lot to ask to go on the road on a Friday night and win especially when your strength is passing the ball and SMU return all 4 starters from last year including Kenneth Acker and Chris Parks one of the better duos in the nation. They were 20th in opponent completion % despite being 86th in sack %. This unit was also 23rd in takeaways and I think that will be the difference on Friday night.

Utah State +3 -115 3* play
Maybe an in state rivalry is forming here? Anyway Utah lost last year 27-20 on the road and they look at revenge, but I don't see them getting it here. They are implementing a new spread offense that I don't think works well with QB Travis Wilson and they can't run the ball ranking 108th and 102nd the last two years. Gone is their best running back John White and 3 multi-year linemen. On defense they lose 3 of their top 4 defensive linemen and have transitioned to a smaller quicker defense. These type of drastic changes usually don't pay off early in the season.

Utah State on the other hand brings back 14 starters 7 on offense and defense. Their defense is stacked with the best linebackers in the Mountain West in Zach Vigil and Jake Doughtry. Their front 3 are big and active with an elite pass rusher in Connor Williams. This is a team that only allowed 30% TD conversions int he red zone and 32% third down conversions. Meanwhile Utah allowed 72% red zone conversions. The defense was ranked 14th last year and dominated at times against some pretty good teams. Offensively their QB is the best player on the field in Chuckie Keeton who is a dual threat QB with nearly 4,000 yards of total offense over 30 TD to just 9 interceptions. He did lose some receivers and his starting running back, but he brings back all 5 starters on the offensive line which is huge. Joe Hill will fit in fine with this group that has turned around NFL running backs in back to back years.

S. Carolina -11.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
If you read my SEC College Football Preview & Odds article you'll know I'm very high on South Carolina. Everyone is raving about Jadeveon Clowney but they forget Connor Shaw missed a lot of time last year and returns. The Gamecocks have not lost a game at home as a double digit favorite since 2004 and I don't anticipate it Thursday night. In fact I see them dominating from start to finish with Shaw playing like he has a chip on his shoulder. He knows he can't take anything for granted with his injury history and he's said several times this off season they can't look past UNC who has a very good QB of their own in Bryan Renner, but the strengths and weaknesses for both teams put South Carolina in a huge advantage.

First of all UNC's defense lacks edge pressure and they are weak at linebacker up the middle leaving them vulnerable up the gut which is the very spot the Gamecocks will look to attack. South Carolina is very strong up front with 4 returning offensive linement, but their weakness is speed rushers which North Carolina does not have this year. UNC actually runs an odd 4-2-5 scheme but they lack the pieces including the BANDIT which is the key position. So what happens is teams like this get pushed and that's what I think will happen on Thursday night. The running game will set up the passing game for Connor Shaw and South Carolina has a lot of speed and athleticism at receiver that should take advantage of UNC's talented secondary because Shaw will have time and he can also create plays with his feet.

UNC comes in with a rebuilt offensive line with 3 new starters. This team also lost their top running back which won't be an issue by season end but I don't see them being able to run against South Carolina who allowed just 2.6 ypc at home. The Gamecocks are vulnerable against the run but we won't know it on Thursday since they are home and facing a team with a new offensive line. Renner will likely turn to the passing game at some point which won't be a good idea with the pass rushing skills South Carolina has with Clowney and senior Chaz Sutton. North Carolina had a terrific season last year offensively which is why they are getting a ton of respect with this line, but they really did not have any tough road games like this. Their up tempo spread attack will have issues against a good pass rush.

Notre Dame +10 5.5* NCAAF POD
I love this match up and though I don't believe either team was as good as the media has glorified them this will be a better match up than last year. I went over extensively each team's resume to take a look at their statistical rankings and who they faced. Notre Dame faced 10 bowl teams along the way while Alabama faced 7 bowl teams. Neither one of those teams opponents had winning records in bowl games if you can believe it. The weak teams on Alabama's schedule are far weaker than the ones on Notre Dames schedule as Alabama has even played a FCS school while Notre Dame has not. At the end of the day here is how I see this game.

Both teams are in tops in rushing play % and both are successful at doing so with Notre Dame ranking 34th in rushing play% and 21st in rushing play %. They did it against an average run defense (ypc) of 59.9 and faced 5 top 50 run defenses along the way averaging 4.31 ypc in those games. Alabama's rushing offense is a bit better and they run the ball more ranking 16th with a 61% run play call. They were 9th in ypc average against an average run defense (ypc) of 58 (similar to Notre Dame). They faced 7 top 50 run defenses and averaged 5.10 ypc although I think many could argue based on how Georgia played down the stretch that they were not a top 50 run defense but in fact they ranked 50th (they played two FCS foes), so I believe the numbers are a bit skewed, but even so both teams are good at running the ball. Notre Dame is very under rated they have a QB that's mobile and can run along with 3 other options at tailback including Cierre Wood, and Theo Riddick (who has SEC speed). George Atkinson is also in the mix and might be the fastest player on the field tonight (you'll see him on kick off returns).

On the flip side rushing defense numbers were similar. Alabama showed some holes down the stretch allowing 3.5 ypc, but they went up against 5 top 50 programs and held them to 2.97 ypc while Notre Dame who was ranked 12th overall in ypc allowed went up against 4 top 50's and held them to 3.59 ypc. I believe both teams can have success running the ball here. Notre Dame is not used to being run on ranking 2nd in the league in opponent rushing %, and I think Alabama won't do what they did last year by throwing the ball instead of passing. I believe Nick Saban thinks he can wear down Notre Dame because of this fact, but to me that won't result in Alabama covering the spread because Notre Dame is still very under rated with their front led by Tuit, Nix, and Lewis-Moore. This was a team that was #1 in red zone defense by a far margin only allowing 24% TD's that's compared to Alabama who allowed 51.85%. So now onto the passing games.

Everett Golson got better each week while all AJ McCarron did was be #2 in the nation in QB rating. However, Golson faced better pass defenses. I did the math and McCarron went up against opposing pass defenses ranked 76th in completion % defense, and 72nd in opposing QB rating on average. While Golson went up against 61st and 40th respectively. Golson does not have gaudy numbers but he brings a different element to the game being a mobile passer. Alabama was 9th in sack % this year but they went up against an average 72nd ranked QB protection unit. Notre Dame is actually 35th in pass protection and Golson was only sacked 1% over his last 3 games. Alabama was 92nd in sack % and that's why they run the ball so much. McCarron is great when the running game is working, but when it's not and he's forced to pass the Bama offensive line is not as good as advertised in protecting him. That's probably why he struggled against the 3 good defenses on his schedule. Vs. LSU, A&M, and Georgia. McCarron did not play crazy good only completing 58% of his passes, 636 yards and 3 TD while throwing 3 INT. If we take a look at Golson against good pass defense teams and he faced plenty of elite pass defense teams in Michigan State, Stanford, and Oklahoma (29th in pass defense), He did not make mistakes 2 TD and 0 INT. I won't be shocked to see him play better than McCarron in that department and that's the way Notre Dame has won all year. Red Zone defense and make the other QB to make a mistake. It will be a major challenge for them, but I think 10 points is far far too many.

[b]Arkansas State -3+100 4** POD[/b]
Kent State will come into this game with their head coach despite him taking a job to coach Purdue. He has been doing two jobs this time, but he said his main goal was to win a bowl game and a MAC championship. He came up close but failed against Northern Illinois and now I think he falls short here against Arkansas State, who may just be the best team they have faced all year long. Arkansas State just has more balance offensively with Ryan Aplin at QB and David Oku at RB compared with Kent State which is a run first team led by dynamic Dri Archer.

Kent States defense is led and reliant on creating mistakes. They have forced 38 on the year and they have 33 sacks, but the problem in this game is Ryan Aplin, the best QB that Kent State has faced all year does not get sacked ranking 19th in fewest sack % and he does not turn the ball over completing 67.7% of his throws and only 4 interceptions while throwing for 23 TDs. Arkansas States defense really played well down the stretch in the red zone holding opponents to 30% TD
s over their last 4 while their offense was scoring at over an 80% clip. Their offense is more balanced than Kent State as I mentioned ranking 14th in third down conversion percentage while Kent State was 86th and only coverted 32% over their last 3 games. Spence Keith is known for turning the ball over for Kent State and I dont think this team can win this game unless they win the turnover battle in a big way, but I dont think it will happen tonight.

[b]Pittsburgh +3.5 4.4** ncaaf play of the day[/b]
Well look here maybe the Big East is not nearly as bad as everyone thought. Or maybe Florida was just not motivated to play in the Sugar Bowl. I doubt it, and now the Big East 4-0 vs. the SEC and I think they get another favorable match up here with Pitt having an excellent defense playing inspired football down the stretch. While they lost to Louisville, Syracuse, and Cinci this year they beat a good Rutgers team in dominant fashion. They were also minutes away from beating Notre Dame on their own field but ended up losing by 3. Tino Sunseri has come a long way under Paul Chryst who was the Wisconsin OC for years. It seems Sunseri fixed his issues of throwing interceptions he has just 2 on the season with 19 TDs and has over 3,000 yards thats better than Mississippi's Bo Wallace who threw 15 interceptions and for less yards. I also think despite what the stats say that Pitt has the better running back in Ray Graham. Dont believe me, Graham rushed for 172 yards on 24 carries on Notre Dames elite run defense. Though Miss faced several tough opponents in the SEC they struggled vs. teams that could pass the ball. I think Pitt shows a lot here with Chryst staying on to coach despite all the rumors hes not going anywhere and this team will finally have their head coach for a bowl game unlike the last two years.

Texas AM -3 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD
This is a rematch of a game last year in Oklahoma where Oklahoma won being +3 in turnover margin. Texas AM has actually lost 8 of their last 9 vs. Oklahoma but I'm confident they'll reverse that here today against Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl. First off Oklahoma is going ot have a very hard time being 100th in the league allowing over 5 yards per carry going up against A&M who has 4 rushing threats that all average 4.7 ypc or greater including the Heisman winner Johny Manziel.

Their offensive line averages 25lbs more than Oklahoma's weak defensive line. A&M is also 4th in plays per game and like to push the tempo and that's just going to be bad news for an Oklahoma front that lacks any depth on the line and there is a reason their top 4 tacklers are all defensive backs.

On the flip side many could argue that Oklahoma is just as good at passing the ball and A&M ranking 83rd in pass yards allowed are just as bad as Oklahoma is at stopping the run, but I differ. Oklahoma hardly played any other teams that could get to the QB which is a huge reason they are 6th in fewest sack %. A&M is 35th at getting to the QB and Oklahoma faced only two teams better which was Notre Dame who beat them on their own field and Kansas State who also beat them on their own field. In fact Kansas State seems like a spitting image of what Texas A&M is and likes to do but only better and more capable of putting up points. A&M is also 39th in opposing QB rating and once again Oklahoma only faced two better in Notre Dame in TCU which their offense strugled against averaging 16.5pts which won't get it done in this game.

Kansas St +8.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Many thought this was going to be the national championship. This game is an interesting because these are two teams that love to run the ball first with Oregon ranking 9th running it 64.25% of the time and Kansas State 12th at 62.8%. Both these teams are also ranked 1 and 2 in points per play with Kansas State being #1. Kansas State is used to playing teams that push the pace facing 6 other teams in the top 25 in points per play while Oregon only played one other which gives you some perspective on the offenses these two defenses have faced.

Kansas State likes to run their offense and hold onto the ball ranking 120th while Oregon is 6th in plays per game, but as mentioned both are good at running the ball, but who is better at stopping it? Kansas State is the answer they are ranked 27th allowing 3.7 ypc, but take out the Baylor game and they would allow just 3.25ypc compared to Oregon who is ranked 63rd allowing 4.2 ypc. Kansas State faced an average opponent ranked 50th in ypc rushing while Oregon faced much weaker competition averaging 65th. Despite that he allowed 200+ 4 times and allowed over 4 ypc 7 times. While Kansas State against better rushing offenses allowed 200+ 1 time and 4.0ypc 2 times.

I think we have already proven that the Big 12 was stronger than the Pac 12 this year as they are 2-0 SU and ATS in head to head match ups this season. Overall the Big 12 is already 5-2 while the Pac 12 is just 2-4. Chip Kelly is just 1-2 in bowl games in his career. Defenses seemed to be able to prepare for this style of offense.

LOU/FL U48 3.3* play / Louisville +14.5 2.2* NCAAF Play
I get why everyone is seeing Florida blow out Louisville. I too faded this team down the stretch, but I just can not go against Louisville and Terry Bridgewater in this spot. Bridgewater is from Florida and has to have his motivation as a leader and around at a high level. Florida on the other hand has not been known this year for blowing teams out. They simply want to play quality defense and stay on the field on offense via their running game. Now Louisville could struggle against the run, but at times this year they have shown they can stop good running teams. They stopped North Carolina cold earlier in the seasonw ho is ranked 19th in rushing ypc average. North Carolina later in the year ran for over 5 yards per carry against a Maryland defense that was ranked 19th vs. the run so they certainly had a quality rushing team. I think Louisville can sell out to stop the run again this year and Florida is just bad enough at converting third downs (72nd in the nation) while Louisville themselves are ranked 19th on offense to stay on the field longer than the Gators.

When I look at what the Gators did this year you see some of their games against weak competition in Lafayette and Bowling Green where those two teams hung in there. Now if Louisville can limit the turnovers I don't see this team blowing Louisville off the field. As much as you can see this is the best rushing team Louisville has faced all year you can also say it's the best passing team that Florida has faced playing a run happy conference. Much of this secondary really has not been tested like Louisville can test them. So really both teams have one dimensional offenses going into this game which is why I really like the under here. Florida won't mess with the running game in my opinion they are ranked 124th which is last in the nation being sacked 12.92% of their drop backs. In addition Louisville only turned the ball over 12 times this year which should allow them to stay in the game.

LOU/FL U48 3.3* play / Louisville +14.5 2.2* NCAAF Play
I get why everyone is seeing Florida blow out Louisville. I too faded this team down the stretch, but I just can not go against Louisville and Terry Bridgewater in this spot. Bridgewater is from Florida and has to have his motivation as a leader and around at a high level. Florida on the other hand has not been known this year for blowing teams out. They simply want to play quality defense and stay on the field on offense via their running game. Now Louisville could struggle against the run, but at times this year they have shown they can stop good running teams. They stopped North Carolina cold earlier in the seasonw ho is ranked 19th in rushing ypc average. North Carolina later in the year ran for over 5 yards per carry against a Maryland defense that was ranked 19th vs. the run so they certainly had a quality rushing team. I think Louisville can sell out to stop the run again this year and Florida is just bad enough at converting third downs (72nd in the nation) while Louisville themselves are ranked 19th on offense to stay on the field longer than the Gators.

When I look at what the Gators did this year you see some of their games against weak competition in Lafayette and Bowling Green where those two teams hung in there. Now if Louisville can limit the turnovers I don't see this team blowing Louisville off the field. As much as you can see this is the best rushing team Louisville has faced all year you can also say it's the best passing team that Florida has faced playing a run happy conference. Much of this secondary really has not been tested like Louisville can test them. So really both teams have one dimensional offenses going into this game which is why I really like the under here. Florida won't mess with the running game in my opinion they are ranked 124th which is last in the nation being sacked 12.92% of their drop backs. In addition Louisville only turned the ball over 12 times this year which should allow them to stay in the game.

Wisconsin +7 -120 5.5* NCAAF POD
This may not be a truly sexy match up as many anticipated before the year started, but this game is going to be one of the better played games in my opinion. For Stanford it is business as usual the team only lost twice in a controversial OT game against Notre Dame and in a weird Thursday night game in Washington. For Wisconsin they started the year slow fired some coaches rebounded before dominating in the Big Ten Championship drubbing Nebraska by the score of 70-31 to come into the Rose Bowl with a ton of momentum. Wisconsin however is without their head coach who moved on, but taking over is former Wisconsin head coach Barry Alvarez. Alvarez is trying to become the first coach to win a Rose Bowl in three different decades, but here is a look at each team's scheme.

Wisconsin's Scheme:
This is pretty obvious that Wisconsin wants to run the ball. They were 6th in the nation in rushing play % with a 65.9%. They'll go up against a Stanford defense that prides itself on stopping the run and was ranked 3rd overall in rushing yards allowed. Wisconsin however only faced 4 teams ranked inside the top 25 in rushing offenses. They went 3-1 in those games with none of them being decided by more than a TD. Wisconsin could have several wrinkles in this game that could throw Stanford off guard. James White may spell the QB and run out of the wild cat and when they do decide to throw the ball it will be to Jared Abbrederis who is the best receiver on the field and could take over this game if both run defenses hold up. However, Stanford despite giving up a lot of yardage to QB's has been great at limiting them to just yards and not TD's allowing just 114 QB rating and 12 TD's and 14 interceptions. Now let's take a look at Stanford's scheme to see if they are a mortal lock to win this game.

Stanford's Scheme:
Much like the Badgers the Cardinals love to run the ball ranking 35th in rushing play %. Over the last 3 games though they ran even more and that resulted in a Pac 12 Championship. They to went through some growing pains at the QB position before settling on Kevin Hogan who is only a freshmen, but played lights out converting 73% of his throws. Stanford however will have its hands full going against a top 15 defense that can stop the run and the pass. Wisconsin really only struggled stopping the run against Nebraska. Take that game out and this unit was ranked 10th nationally allowing just 3.10 ypc. Stanford runs a pro style offense and may have to turn to Hogan to win this game which he's fully capable of doing as we saw in the Pac 12 Championship.

At the end of the day neither team has been known for getting blown out. Their defenses are just too strong, but I think what we saw from UCLA in the Pac 12 Championship game is a sign of things to come. Wisconsin plays physical running ball and Monte Ball will have a nice game. On the outside Wisconsin has more of a passing threat with Abbrederis and a better pass defense while their rushing offense has been better too. LB Mike Taylor and Chris Borland will dominate on defense for Wisconsin.

Georgia -8.5 3.3* play
I think Georgia and Mark Richt have a lot to prove coming off the SEC Championship loss for the 2nd year in a row and I think they'll dominate this game from start to finish. Nebraska looked awful in the Big Ten Championship and Bo Pelini has taken his team to 4 conference championship in his 5 years at the helm and is 0-4. He has not won a big game and he's lost the last two bowl games by double digits.

Nebraska may have the #1 pass defense in yards allowed, but they are 8th in terms fewest passing attempts against. They did not face a single balanced attack all year long and they allowed 5 yards per carry and were shreaded in their conference championship allowing 539 yards to Wisconsin. Look for Todd Gurley to have a huge game as this run defense is soft they also allowed 344 yards to UCLA and 371 to Ohio State. Georgia actually has a passing game they will have to worry about unlike the other teams that ran all over them.

On offense Nebraska gets by with the run game and on paper that looks to be where they can beat Georgia, but without any passing threat Georgia will be able to tee off on the run. Look for Jarvis Jones to get to Taylor Martinez before he gets going and that will set them up in obvious passing situations. Georgia's secondary was not at full strength to begin the year with suspensions, but once everyone returned this team only allowed 3 passing TD's in their last 7 games and on the season had 109 QB hurries, and that's a team that was 7th in fewest passing attempts against.

Northwestern -1 3.3* EB Play
Pat Fitzgerald has done a great job with this team over the last few years, but now it's finally time to get a bowl victory and I think they lucked out with a winnable match up. Fitzgerald should have the advantage in this game and I'm betting they end their bowl win drought that dates back to 1949. Miss State on the other hand is 5-0 in their last 5 but they closed the season losing 4 of their last 5 after dominating against a cupcake schedule earlier in the year.

Miss State has gotten it done by winning the turnover battle as they were +20 in their wins and -3 in their 4 losses. Well guess what Northwestern has just 12 turnovers on the year and is +13. IF anything I see Northwestern being able to win the turnover battler here today. Miss State will have to contend with a dual threat QB in Kain Colter and we saw how they were embarrassed when they went up against Johny Manziel. Northwestern will run the ball 60% of the time and Miss State is 65th allowing 4.3 ypc. ON the flip side Northwestern's run defense is 28th and allows 3.7 ypc they were 0-2 when they allowed more than 150 yards while Miss State was 0-4 when they could not break the 100 yard barrier.

Northwestern should be able to shut down the run in this game making Miss State pass it which is something they are comfortable doing, but Tyler Russell is good for a game where he does not complete 60% of his passes and with all the time to prepare Northwestern should be able to do that as Miss State was 101st in third down conversions this year and there were a couple games where Russell could not complete 50% of his passes against bad pass defenses (Troy and South Alabama come to mind). On the other side I think Northwestern will be able to pass the ball a bit as Miss State is terrible at getting to the QB. Despite having two NFL CB in Johnathan Banks and Darius Slay this team still allows QB's to complete 65% of their passes. Northwestern QB's have combined for just 4 interceptions and are smart and I think they'll take what is given to them which will mean a victory for Northwestern.

LSU -5.5 3.3* PLAY
LSU comes from the big bad conference of the SEC, while Clemson plays in the unimpressive ACC. Both teams rely on the running game more than the passing game. Which probably shocks some considering Clemson has two dynamic receivers, but it would appear that Clemson does not have the pass protection to fully take advantage of that talent thus they run the ball about 55% of the time. We saw it when LSU faced SEC South Carolina to close out the season as they were man handled by A&M's pass rush which is among the best in the country. Now LSU has a pretty strong pass rush ranked 36th and Sam Montgomery could be the guy to steal the show.

Tajh Boyd had a really good year for Clemson, but the QB struggled against the two SEC teams he faced with a 122 and a 106 QB rating. Now he faces a defense that was better than both Auburn and South Carolina. The thing is it will have to be him to win this game because LSU's run defense is so strong ranked 8th and Andre Ellington has not proven that he can run it against good run stop units as they average less than 3.4 ypc against the three top 20 run defenses they faced this year. On the other side you will have LSU's rushing attack which has a ton of depth and fresh legs grind out this game. Clemson is 67th in run defense allowing 4.3 ypc and hasn't faced a physical rushing attack like this. LSU's offensive line should dominate this game and they'll have plenty of balance with Zach Mettenberger proving down the stretch that he can be an effective QB. He had three solid games before his last one against Arkansas (who has a really good pass defense). His other games against Alabama, Miss State and Miss are nothing to sneeze about and here today he gets to go up against Clemson ranked 82nd vs. the pass. Dabo Sweeney has yet to prove he can win the big game while Les Miles has won 6 of his last 8 bowl games and is usually money with extra time to prepare. Clemson lost 70-33 to a bad West Virginia team a year ago in their bowl and have lost 5 of 6.

Iowa State -1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Okay, so these teams met in week 1 and Tulsa lost..Normally I'd lean toward the revenge factor, but these teams are totally different at this point in the season. I think Tulsa is content winning their conference championship. Meanwhile you have Paul Rhoads coaching this team as a blue collar bunch. They play a gritty style of football that is hard not to root for and back.

The difference in this game is going to be Iowa State's defense despite missing Jake Knott they will be able to concentrate on the run as Tulsa is a one dimensional offense. Iowa State faced many offenses this season that could throw and pass the ball. Iowa State turned to a freshman QB late in the season that provided a spark in Sam Richardson. Richardson did face some weak pass defenses, but I think his ability to avoid the rush will allow him to win this game along with his talented groups of running backs.

Georgia Tech +7.5 3.3* play
Tech is 4th in rushing play % while USC is 24th in passing play % so both teams have opposite schemes. USC had major issues tackling this year and I see that being a major issue in this game especially considering USC can't be very excited to be here. Georgia Tech on the other hand has to be absolutely thrilled to be in the Sun Bowl playing against a big program like USC. USC meanwhile was a pre season #1.

You can't sleep on Tech's defense either this is a group that blanked FSU's in the 2H of the ACC championship led by Jeremiah Ataochu who has 10 sacks. Tech will also get RB Orwin Smith back who is averaging over 9 yards per carry. USC will have some issues stopping this offense with Monte Kiffin stepping down. Kiffin still involved for this game has had major issues putting effective game plans for option offenses and adjusting to the new generation offense which is the offense. On the other-side Mac Whittick makes his second start and struggled vs. Notre Dame.

TCU/MichST U40.5 3.3* play / Mich St +8.5/U47 2.2* teaser
To me this game will be a coin flip, but I feel very good about the under this game. Neither offense features any kind of a balanced attack and really they don't do anything well. Both teams rely on running the ball first which should speed this game up as both rushing defenses have been dominant this year and feature top 10 rush defenses. Look for the defenses to take control both of them have been excellent in the red zone as TCU has held opponents to 44% TD's, Michigan State 32%. Third down defense TCU has allowed 29% and Michigan State has allowed 31%. TCU has been at its best when it gets some extra rest with their young team so I think their DL will really give Michigan State issues if they try to fool TCU and start passing the ball. I don't see that happening in this game because TCU has a ton of ball hawks and that just won't end well for Michigan State. In the end I lean towards TCU for the game, but the Spartans to stay within the number.

Texas +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Before I get into all the stats I have some key stats about Texas and Oregon State and who they played. Oregon State faced 4 top 50 rushing offenses and 3 top 50 passing offenses on the year and overall that led to a very good defensive statistical season, and on paper it appears that they have the better defense than Texas however I don't believe that's the case. Texas had to face many balanced offenses in Big 12 play as they faced off against 6 top 25 passing teams and 8 top 50 rushing offenses. Now they get to face an offense that's ranked 99th in ypc rushing average and obviously can pass the ball with some of the better teams, but Texas now gets to sick their 31st sack % group against Oregon State.

Texas sack unit is even under rated really they faced a ton of QB's and OL's that get rid of the ball quick and protect their QB. I think Oregon State is making a major mistake going with Cody Vaz at QB who is not nearly as accurate as Sean Mannion completing less than 60% of his throws. He has not turned the ball over and that seems to be the main reason they are making the change. Oregon State's defense meanwhile will have to face a balanced offense that leads with a power run game. Texas is ranked 11th in QB rating and 38th in rushing ypc average. Oregon State did not play any teams with the exception of Oregon that had a balanced offense and could hurt them with both the run and the pass and to me that will be the difference in this game. There is a reason Texas has converted over 50% of their third downs and over 70% of their red zone trips into TD's. Oregon on the other hand only 34% of their third downs and their red zone defense is just not quite as good as Texas and Oregon State went against worst offenses as we mentioned earlier.

At the end of the day some times bowl games come down to who is motivated and this game will be played in Texas and Texas is facing a 13th ranked team in Oregon State so they should be up for this game. Also we just saw Baylor another Big 12 team embarrass UCLA last night and that came was played on the West Coast.

Syracuse +4 4.4* play; Syracuse +10.5/O65.5 2.4* bonus
Pretty obvious why I like the over here, both teams are ranked in the top 25 as far as tempo goes with plays per game and when they have faced teams that like to speed up the game they have given up a ton of points, but West Virginia gave up many more. The Mountaineers faced 5 top 32 teams in plays per game and in those 5 games they gave up about 50.2 ppg. Syracuse meanwhile only faced two teams in the top 40 and allowed 42 and 27 points. Both teams are poor in the red zone as far as defense goes. Syracuse gave up 100% on 7-7 against USC and Northwestern. Their stats against the Big East were better, but that's the Big East so expect lots of TD's and not FG's in this one.

Overall though I think Syracuse has the edge and has West Virginias number. Syracuse does not lean as much on the pass as West Virginia does, but the way to stop Geno Smith is with a pass rush. That's a huge advantage for Syracuse in this game. Geno Smith has been very good but he's gone up against an average opponent pass rush ranked 80th. Syracuse is nothing special but ranked 43rd in sack % and are a very aggressive unit as they had 90 tackles for loss led by DL Brandon Sharpe. They can force some third and longs because of that stat as West Virginia has allowed 81 tackles for loss so it won't be shocking. Meanwhile Syracuse offensive line is as strong as they've had in over a decade. Ryan Nassib has been sacked just 14 times all year and West Virginia has literally no pass rush they are ranked 96th this year and that's part of the reason why they have only forced 18 turnovers and rank 119th in passing yards allowed.

This is just a bad match up for West Virginia as Syracuse has an excellent and efficient passing game behind Ryan Nassib who works out of the shotgun, but don't sleep on the running game as Jerome Smith and Prince Tyson Gulley combined for 1,636 yards this season. The combination of Syracuses agressive defense and the game being in their own backyard along with them actually being better on third and 4th down has me liking the Orange to pull off an upset. West Virginia can't be happy about being in this bowl game after all the hype they had coming into the season and early in the season meanwhile Syracuse would love to beat their old rival that they beat last year 49-23 in a shocker. Syracuse has won 10 of their last 13 bowl games meanwhile the Mountaineers before winning against Clemson last year has been awful losing their previous 3 by double digits.

Minnesota +13 3.3* play
This is another example of a coaching staff being completely stunned that their leaders have left. Tommy Tubberville took a job at Cincinnati which seems like a demotion and his OC is on his way to Kentucky with Mark Stoops. That will put the offensive line coach as the head coach and the receivers coach as the OC. That's no easy task with a team that wins with its offense. Jerry Kill who coaches Minnesota is a good coach and has Minnesota in a bowl game again after back to back 3-9 season and this team is ecstatic to be here.

I believe Minnesota has the ingredients to keep this game close and possibly pull the upset. For one TExas Tech got pushed around towards the end of the year and they were one of the worst at getting to the QB so Minnesota should have time to throw and their running game will get going which is a rarity vs. a Tech team that has allowed 5.9 ypc over their last 3 games. Minnesota has lost games this year against teams that can stop the run. All of their wins came against teams that struggled vs. the run and all of their losses with the exception of Nebraska who was 106th vs. the run were top 50. Tech's front will be pushed around a bit and Minnesota should be able to hang onto the ball a bit and I think that will be enough for them to stay in this game. Seth Doege also has been prone to the interception late this year while their defense has only forced 10 turnovers all season. Minnesota is 2-0 when facing teams with top passing games as they beat both Western Michigan and Syracuse.

Rutgers +3 -120 buy 1/2 4.2* POD; Rutgers +8.5/U48 teaser 3.3* play
One thing is for sure both of these teams are bummed to be playing in this game. However, I can't back the Hokies in this game at all not only is Rutgers 5-0 in Bowl Games, but they are better at the things that have hurt Virginia Tech all year which I'll get to in a second.

First of all Virginia Tech is a team that has leaned on the run in recent years and this year has been no different they are ranked 58th with a 53% rushing play call. However, Tech was 82nd averaging just 3.9 ypc, and Rutgers is ranked 9th allowing 3ypc and 2.5 over their last 3. This will quickly turn the game over to the hands of Logan Thomas and that's not a good thing at least this season. Thomas is 85th in the nation in pass efficiency offense and has completed only 52.6% of his throw while throwing for 17 TD and 14 interceptions. Rutgers pass defense meanwhile has forced 29 turnovers and 16 interceptions while only allowing 12 TD's.

Rutgers is better at forcing the turnovers and Virginia Tech has already lost to two Big East teams this year. Virginia Tech better look out for DT Scott Vallone and LB Khaseem Greene who help fuel a team that had 85 TFL and 41 QB hurries. Virginia Tech's offensive line is leaky and allowed 40 QB hurries on Thomas this year. Rutgers 41 QB hurries is more than Arizona State, South Carolina and Boise State combined who are all in the top 5 in sack % defense.

Although Rutgers defense is impressive Virginia Tech's is too ranking ahead of Rutgers in third down defense and also pretty stout against the run and pass, but at some point VT will have to stack the box and Rutgers has been capable of protecting their QB only allowed 8 sacks all year. That will give them one on coverage and Gary Nova can make the throws deep to his big talented receivers. Brandon Coleman, Tim Wright , and Mark Harrisson are all 6-3+ in height and Virginia Tech has had the tendency to give up big plays all year long.

Another x factor has to be special teams in this match up. Virginia Tech has been prone to poor punting this year and Rutgers has a tendency to block kicks over the years look for that to be a huge advantage in this game.

UCLA -3 4.4* NCAAF POD
I love UCLA here, Baylor really came on strong at the end of the year while UCLA over achieved, but UCLA will play a defense that can not stop a nose bleed. Baylor was dead last allowing 58% conversions on third down and Johnathan Franklin should have a field day. Baylor's defense has gotten by forcing turnovers and taking them back for TD's they were 1-4 on the road and with this game being in San Diego I'm guessing their will be far many more UCLA fans in attendance.

Baylor actually has run the ball a ton this year and UCLA was very good at stopping the run all year. Baylor is known more for their passing game, but Baylor runs the ball 53% of the time which you wouldn't think. At some point they will be forced to throw in this game and UCLA will bring it's 6th ranked pass rush something Baylor is not used to seeing. Baylor on the season saw an average 79th sack rush so facing UCLA is going to be something that will tilt the turnovers in UCLA's favor. UCLA actually forced more turnovers than Baylor this year and will have more balance on offense.

Duke +9.5 2.75* PLAY Duke +285 0.75* play
This is a huge game for Duke in their own back yard just 140 miles away from their campus going up against a Cincinnati team that has over achieved this year and already lost their head coach to Tennessee. It's their first bowl game in 18 years and they have not won a bowl game since 1960.

Duke has to stop the run and although I don't think they can I think they can hold Cinci to field goals in this game. Duke's defense held opponents to 64% TD's in the red zone, but Cincinnati only converted 50% of their RZ trips into TD's. Duke also has a very under rated secondary that's full of veterans that should be able to come up with a few interceptions in this game. Meanwhile Duke has an experienced QB in Sean Renfree who will be throwing the ball to Conner Vernon and Jamison Crowder who will challenge a Cinci secondary that can be beat and will be beat in this game. Duke's defense at times has stopped the run and they will be well prepared for this game, They held a Stanford offense to 3.54 ypc earlier in the year.

The challenge for Duke will be passing on Cinci, but Cinci's has only allowed 11 TD passes in 12 games, but to be perfectly honest they played a lot of teams that were not very good in passing the ball and I think that's the biggest key here. I looked at several average opponent ranks for Cinci's pass defense. Duke's statistical ranking was much higher than those averages for example. Completion percentage, Duke is ranked 39th in the nation and Cinci faced an average opponent ranked 65th. Completions per game, Duke is ranked 14th and Cinci faced an average opponent ranked 63rd, and lastly sacked %. Duke ranked 29th in fewest sack % while Cinci faced an average 67th opponent. Renfree gets the ball out of his hands fast and is accurate and I think Duke can very well win this game. It will be windy for this game but in recent years we have seen that this has not played much of a factor. If anything that only makes Cinci more one dimensional.

Bowling Green +7.5 3.3* play; 7pt teaser BG +14.5/U52 2.6* -130
This game features two conference defensive player of the years on each team which fuel top 15 pass rushes that will change the game here tonight. I'm going with Chris Jones and Bowling Green's interior pass rush over San Jose to have the bigger impact and I'll tell you why. San Jose which had a 8.21 sack % on the year was not as good downt he stretch with 5.41% while Bowling Green was better with a 9.42 sack % and 12.77 over their last three. Bowling Green's QB Matt Schilz rarely gets sacked ranked 16th in the nation only being sacked 3.12% of drop backs 1.09% over their last 3 while San Jose was 64th with a 5.78 sack %. San Jose has faced 3 top 50 pass protection units and the results were not good. Those offenses averaged 36 points per game as San Jose went 1-2 with the lone lose being against a very good LA Tech team that just doesn't play defense ranked 124th (dead last) in yards allowed. Bowling Green on the other hand is ranked 7th in yards allowed.

People need to wake up and realize the MAC is a very good conference and this line is no indication that it will happen soon. Bowling Green did have a weak schedule for the most part, but they are playing with a huge chip on their shoulders after they were nearly passed over for this game and a bowl game at all. Three things happened in their favor that got them into this game, LA Tech opted out, Uconn lost their last game and Northern Illinois got a BCS bowl game. Bowling Green is going to come with their pass rush and David Fales who has been excellent all year could have some issues. He had his worst game against Stanford who ironically is just 1 place behind Bowling Green in sack %. Bowling Green also has 29 hurries to go along with their 3rd ranked sack % group. To put things in perspective for Fales, he's only been hurried 6 times this year and their defense has just 16 hurries themselves, advantage Bowling Green.

Also don't sleep on Bowling Green's offense which to me is more capable of having a balanced attack than San Jose who on paper is completely one dimensional. San Jose gave up 818 yards passing in their last 2 games and junior Matt Schilz is fully capable of moving the chains and picking up yards. Bowling Green will have an excellent shot at winning this game if they can convert in the red zone where they are about 50% for TD's which is very similar to San Jose's offense and defense. Neither team's offense is good in the red zone and both teams defenses are very good at holding opponents to FG's which is why I also like the under in my teaser.

Central Michigan +7 -120 buy

SMU +13 3.3* NCAAF Play
I like SMU here and I'll lean on the experience of their head coach June Jones who has been in this posistion before of being a big dog in a bowl game. Often times he comes up with huge victories. The game against Nevada comes to mind. Fresno State has been a covering machine all year 11-1 ATS and it has to catch up to them at some point and I think this is the perfect time. Tim DeRuyter is a first year coach and it's a little unkown on how he can get his players up for this game. For many of these players this is a vacation and for June Jones and SMU this was a place he called home for years when he was the Hawaii coach so he's going to be better at handling the distractions.

On paper Fresno looks like the sure winner, but a few things to keep in mind in this one. SMU is capable of dominating the time of possession they were ranked 6th in the nation in that category and RB Zach Line is capable of taking this game over against Fresno's most glaring weakness their run defense. After looking at this match up I wouldn't be surprised to see Fresno sell out to stop the run, but for June Jones and his offense to come out passing the ball with Gilbert who has been much better down the stretch as he has not committed an interception over the last 5 games which will be a very important stat in this game. Both teams are among the best in the nation at forcing turnovers and if SMU can somehow win that battle they would have a good chance at winning this game. As far as strength of schedule goes hands down SMU has had the more challenging road to a bowl game facing Baylor, TCU, and Texas A&M in non conference games compared to Fresno who did face Oregon, but Boise State and Tulsa. Tulsa is the common opponent which SMU beat at home and Fresno lost on the road. The difference was turnovers and the running game. SMU ran all over Tulsa for 5.5 ypc while Fresno only averaged 3.6 and was +10 yards in the game despite losing. I think we could see a game that's similar and don't sleep on SMU in the red zone as Fresno's offense down the stretch was only able to convert 42% of their red zone opportunities into TD's. SMU got better down the stretch with 66% conversions.

At the end of the day this is not a huge play for me, but I've seen it a thousand times with a team like Fresno and we have even seen it from Fresno when they dominate in the regular season take 30 days off and they are not the same team. June Jones is a good coach and he even had his team practice for 2+ hours the other day for what he called his longest bowl practice. I think they will be well prepared and play with a chip on their shoulder tonight.

Washington +5.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
I love the Huskies here today against Boise State. Washington may have lacked an identity on offense all year, but they have more talent on offense than Boise State as junior Keith Price should lead his team to a victory. Price will connect early and often with TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins who in my opinion is the best TE in the nation. Price also has another option in Kasen Williams who is another sophomore with an NFL future. Both had 6 TD's this year as Price threw a total of 18, but the bigger key is whether or not Washington can run the ball. Bishop Sankey really came on strong at the end of the year with 15 TD's in all and should be able to help the Huskies control the clock vs Boise State.

Ball State +7.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Ball St +260 1* bonus
Keith Wenning is going to play tonight and that

San Diego State +3.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This is an interesting match up between two teams that used to meet regularly in the Mountain West. BYU has controlled the match up over the years with their last meeting being decided by 3 points 2 years ago, but San Diego State has several advantages in this game and the 3.5 points is tremendous value. For one the Aztecs will be playing in their home town and in the same stadium (Qualcom) that they play in the regular season. That

Toledo +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
I think we have tremendous value here in the line of 10.5 points. I think there is a misconception about the MAC and I also feel Toledo had a stronger strength of schedule with their top three being against Arizona, Cincinnati, and Northern Illinois while Utah State faced Wisconsin, BYU, and LA Tech. Note they played Wisconsin when Wisconsin looked like a shell of who they were down the stretch. Both teams are in the top 30 in my RPI and Toledo had the stronger strength of schedule by 38 percentage points based on their opponent win% and their opp-opp win%.

Utah State's defense was excellent this year, but they never faced a balanced offense until they met LA Tech who put 41 points up on them. Aside from LA Tech you could argue Toledo will be the best offense this defense has faced all season. In fact Utah State faced only two top 50 offenses all year and now they'll have to faced a third. The other two put up 41 and 27 points respectfully. Toledo is led by a balanced attack with an excellent rushing attack with David Fluellen and QB Terrance Owens returning to the line up.

Toledo also has significant advantages in time of possession and turnover margin. Utah State is ranked 71st in takeaways and Toledo is ranked 27th. Toledo played one of its best games vs. a team similar to Utah State in Northern Illinois that's off to a bowl game. Toledo had Northern Illinois on the ropes before falling in the 4th quarter and I think we could see a similar effort from this team today. With time of possession comes the key of third down. Utah State is 22nd in third down defense, but a closer look we realize they faced an average opponent ranked 77th in converting third downs. Now they'll face Toledo's balance offense ranked 39th. Utah State's offense was ranked 36th, but they struggled vs. some of the better third down defenses and Toledo's defense which gives up chunks of yardage is better than many believe. They were ranked 57th in third down defense against an average opponent ranking 59th in converting third downs and they were among the best in the red zone keeping opponents out of the end zone more than 50% of the time on red zone attempts and even held opponents on the road to a 39% TD percentage.

Army +7.5 -120 buy 1/2 5* NCAAF POD; Army +240 1* play
Even the Army coach admits that this game means more than going to a bowl game. So while I don't think Navy is looking ahead to their bowl game I do believe they are not as focused as Army. Up for grabs is the commander in chief trophy which goes to the service academy that wins the round robin between Army/Navy/Air Force. Both teams already beat Air Force so this game has more than sentimental value.

This game is bigger for Army who has lost 10 straight times to Navy, but has been much closer in recent years because of Trent Steelman who is playing in his last game as the Army QB. He'll go up against Navy's freshmen QB. Army also has a veteran leader in Nate Combs playing in his last game as the leader of the defense. Although it's a unit that just got shredded in their last game by Temple's Montel Harris one has to believe this group was already preparing for Navy knowing they weren't going bowling. I think that only gives us more value in this point spread.

There were many games Army could have won that would have put them in the bowl picture if you look through the season. Really if they won some of those games this could have been more like a 3 point spread in my opinion so I think we are getting a few points here and great value. Let's take a look at some of the games. Army played well at home all season with the exception of their last game. They even nearly beat BCS buster Northern Illinois, but fell 40-41. There was a loss to Kent State sprinkled in but they beat Boston College, and Air Force.

This game is pretty simple in terms of who is going to win or whether or not it's going to be a close game. 3rd down conversions and turnovers. Army has had issues turning the ball over all year which has cost them big time, but at home they are +0.7 turnover margin per game while Navy is -0.5 on the road. Navy also is 103rd in forcing turnovers and 92nd in fumble recovery %. Army not used to playing defenses that don't force turnovers. 3rd down conversion percentages have been pretty equal only Army is better offensively and defensively. Defensively Navy is 117th and allowing over 50% on the road while Army is 101st, but have allowed just 41% over their last 3. Offensively Navy is 59th while Army is 25th and converting 50% over their last 3. I think the experience of Army's QB Steelman and the preparation of Army's experience and will to win this game and have something to celebrate will be the difference.

Wisconsin +3.5 -115 5.5* POD Wisconsin +1.5 2.2* 1Half
It appears LB Chris Borland will return which is a huge boost, as Boorland commented that he will play in this game. Even without them the defense did a great job vs. Ohio State and Penn State allwoing 3.6 and 3.5 ypc in two OT losses, but none of that matters as they go up against Nebraska with revenge in the Big Ten Championship.

IN the first match up Wisconsin led 20-3 at half time before getting dominated in the second half and losing on the road to Nebraska. The difference was home field advantage to be honest and the fact that Nebraska ran the ball better and stopped the run better. Wisconsin is a totally different team now Montee Ball's season completely turned around and Nebraska who held Wisconsin to 1.4 ypc in that game are allowing 5.5 ypc on the road this year. Wisconsin also should have a healthy Abredaries who torched Nebraska for 142 yards and a TD.

Nebraska boasts the #1 pass defense in yards allowed, but they are also 18th in opponent pass play % as opponents only average 42% passing percentage. When teams do throw On Nebraska they can have success in the play action which is what Wisconsin does well. Wisconsin though is running the ball a ton 70% of the time in their last 3 games and they are doing it well. That's really what this game comes down to and on a neutral field I give Wisconsin the edge. IN conference play they averaged 5.14 ypc to Nebraska's 4.70 and they averaged 5.69 over their last 3 games against good opponents. Their defense allowed 3.68 ypc while Nebraska allowed 4.16 ypc and we already mentioned their struggles to stop the run on the road. Montee Ball also has 7 TD's in 2 games vs. Nebraska.

Wisconsin will send Nebraska a different look with their third starting QB in 5th year senior Curt Phillips who has played well. Wisconsin is catching a ton of crap for backing into this game losing to both Ohio State and Penn State the two teams ahead of them in the division but are ineligible and I think they come out and dominate this game. They did the same thing last year after losing to Michigan State in the regular season only to get revenge in the Championship game.

Nebraska really struggled in pre snap motions in the first match up and I expect them to lose the turnover battle in this game they are -8 on the year while Wisconsin is +5 in conference play. It won't help that Nebraska is without two senior linemen starters one on offense and one on defense for this game. They have also come from behind in 5 of their

Georgia Tech +14.5 -120 2.5* play
Both Florida State are off tough games they lost to their in state rivals and will have a hang over effect. A ton of people are on Georgia Tech saying they don't belong here after Miami took themselves out of picture, but I think they'll use that for motivation. I like how this team played down the stretch with 3 straight wins vs. quality teams in Duke, North Carolina and Maryland. This team also led in the 4th quarter against Clemson earlier this year. FSU has had its own issues at times this year and they just lost their defensive coordinator who will coach this game but got the Kentucky job. I"m sure he is distracted and anxious to take over the program so how can he prepare for the triple option?

Sure Florida State's run defense has been dominant 2.65 on the year, but they just got done allowing 5.19 ypc to Florida and they are 50th in ypc rushing offense, Georgia Tech is in the top 10 and had a quality game against Georgia who has a similar front 7. Florida State will also miss one of their better defensive players in Carradine. Their run defense has also gone up against an average 90th rushing offense and that's not counting the two FCS foes they scheduled earlier in the year. Against the three teams ranked in the top 63 FSU won by 13, 13, and 12 and I expect a similar tight game. After all Georgia Tech is actually better in conference play on third down offense and red zone TD%. They are also +7 in turnover margin to Florida State's -6.

Alabama -7 -120 4.5* buy 1/2
The game everyone is waiting for. Everyone is now in love with Georgia based on how they played down the stretch. They have a ton of NFL talent on their team and they do for the most part deserve the hype. However, I'm looking pas that and I realize Georgia was lucky to beat Florida (which I will get o in a second) and they really had an easy schedule to get here. They didn't have to play LSU or Texas A&M and when push came to shove this team that's carried by Aaron Murray has not made plays in games against dominant defenses (South Carolina, and Florida). Both South Carolina and Florida possess top 11 run defense and Alabama is #1. Georgia was shut down in those two games scoring just 24 points. Aaron Murray was the guy that failed, 23-55, 259 yards 1 TD and 4 INT's combined. This is nothing new as he also choked in the SEC Championship last year 16-40, 163 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INT's after going to that game under similar circumstances of not playing some of the best SEC teams in the regular season.

Most of Murrays stats have come against bad passing defenses and at home. Although this is in the Georgia Dome I give Alabama the advantage. There is a ton of media that are hyping up Georgia and telling them how good they are meanwhile Alabama thinks everyone is against them and they seem to have more focus. Even S Bacarri Rambo of Georgia said, "I feel like we're more talented." Maybe you have more NFL talent, but Alabama is a better overall team, better coached and it is not even close in my opinion.

First of all this great Georgia defense is about ot face the most balanced offense they've faced all year. Alabama is averaging 5.35 ypc in conference play and with the emergence of Amari Cooper Georgia has to honor the pass. Georgia has also been beat through the air and on the ground at times this year. Despite only allowing 3.34 ypc in conference play it's been mostly against the weaker teams. They just got done allowing 608 yards in their last 2 games combined to Georgia Southern, FCS team and Georgia Tech. Although those are option teams it gives you an idea that their are holes in this defense and that's something Nick Saban and his staff are great at exploiting. In fact Georgia gave up 4.79 to Kentucky on the ground who are ranked 85th, 4.51 ypc to South Carolina ranked 101st, and 4.93 to Tennessee who are ranked 37th. Look for Georgia to get aggressive at some point on defense in this game with the blitz and look for A.J. McCarron to burn them. He's got just 2 interceptions on the year and will quietly once again out play Aaron Murray.

IF you are still not convinced let me lay down some more conference stats. Alabama was better in third down offense 48.5% to 42%, better in the red zone getting their 7 more times and converting on 82% of those opportunities for TD's on the road/neutral games vs. Georgia who converted 65% into TD's in a weaker schedule. Both teams are good in turnover margin but Alabama is better as they are also in tackles for loss differential, sack differential, penalties per game. Lastly let me finish by saying how they were lucky against Florida since this is the reason they are here. Florida turned the ball over 6 times in that game including a fumble that would have pulled them within one as they fumbled into the end zone at the end of the game. Florida who has a similar defense to Alabama held them to 1-10 on third down while they were 7-16 and this was all in Georgia's own building. Alabama is far more capable offensively and their defense is probably about the same. Alabama also won't be turning the ball over 6 times you can bet on that.

Fl Atlantic +9 4.4* play; FL Atl +290 1* bonus
The last two match ups have been decided by a total of 4 points, despite spreads of +7 and +11.5 between FAU and LA Lafayette. Lafayette is already heading to the New Orleans Bowl after their win last week and will face either Rice or East Carolina. Florida Atlantic meanwhile is off a bye week, and have plenty to play for since over achieving and playing their best football of the season. They are a totally different team than they were in the beginning of the year and are 2-2 in their last 4 games and could easily be 3-0 in conference play at home.

The Owls have thrown the ball 58% of the time over their last 3 games and that's good news as they'll go up against the Rajin Cajuns 113th pass defense, this is the worst pass defense they've faced all year as the Cajuns allow a 154 QB rating in their road games. FAU faced FIU 98TH, and Troy 93rd and were in both of those games as they beat Troy, but lost by 10 to FIU because of a kick off return. QB Graham Wilbert has 13 TD to just 3 interceptions in conference play while completing 64.5% of his passes out of the spread offense.

FAU's struggles have been running the ball and defending the run although their run defense has stepped up of late and at home where they allow just 3.7 ypc. The Cajuns also allow 4.45 ypc on the road and are giving up 48% conversions on third downs on the road where I think FAU can have more success than Lafayette. They are better offensively and defensively on third downs in conference play. If they can avoid negative plays and turnovers and score TD's in the red zone they should be able to win this game. Lafayette is riding high with confidence after putting up 52 points and getting a bowl invitation and will likely come out flat on the road with nothing to play for. I see FAU capitalizing and having a good shot at winning the game.

TCU +6 2.2* EB Play
TCU continues to be the #1 defense in the Big 12, and now they'll have another stiff test going up against Oklahoma who just came off a huge win. TCU has a couple extra days to rest and prepare which is good for a team that starts more true freshman than any other team in the country. Overall they are one of the better coached teams and that has paid huge dividends. Now they have gone 0-3 at home in league play and that's 100% due to the fact that they have lost 10 turnovers in those three games to Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Iowa State. However Oklahoma is -3 in turnover margin on the year and is ranked 100th in the nation in forcing turnovers with just 14 on the year.

TCU has been here before against a team that likes to throw the ball all over the field. Oklahoma is 10th in the nation in passing play % at 58%. TCU has hung tough against West Virginia with a win on the road, Texas Tech, a loss by just 3 at home and SMU, a win all teams are ranked in the top 20 in passing play %. They have benefited from leading the league in forcing turnovers with 30 and have a great opportunity to be + in turnover margin on Saturday if they play smart on offense and continue to be aggressive.

You may be wondering what I mean by be smart, well last week they kept it conservative and kept running at Texas. Well they can do that again at home this week and have more success as Oklahoma is 88th in rushing yards allowed and 105th allowing 5.0 ypc on the season, 6.6 per carry per game over their last 3 games alone. To put things in perspective TCU only allows 2.7 ypc. Oklahoma's offense is getting too much credit after scoring 42, 50, 51 vs. the Big 12's 3 worst defenses. While Oklahoma is looking to play for a share of the Big 12 crown with a win and a Kansas State loss TCU will look to spoil it and I believe they will. They are just better in a lot of stats that matter including third down defense, red zone defense, tackles for loss, penalties, and special teams defense.

UCLA +8.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) UCLA +270 1* bonus
I had UCLA on a strong lean last week, but I really couldn't help but hold off knowing that this team already knew they were heading to the Pac 12 Championship no matter what. It was only a matter of who they felt like facing more. Oregon or Stanford? One had to wonder if they led up a bit in this game or came out flat and after watching the game tonight, since it was only on the PAC 12 channel on Saturday I am convinced that UCLA did hold back as they played one of their worst if not their worst most sloppy game of the year.

One word describes it all in what decided the game, "penalties." UCLA had 12 penalties for 135 yards, and several were back breakers. It actually cost them probably double the 135 yards because of plays it took away and also forced them into many third and longs. UCLA converted plenty of third downs early and it was obvious that they could give Stanford issues with RB Johnathan Franklin and their dynamic TE Joseph Fauria who could not be stopped. Still it was penalty after penalty and some bad throws by QB Hundley as well as some key drops. It was clear that UCLA did not come ready to play and were still hung over from defeating USC at home the week before.

Looking at the stat line you would think Stanford did what they wanted, but UCLA was solid on third down and with the exception of two big runs by Stefan Taylor they held the run in check. They even had several tackles for loss on first downs, but penalties took over the game and probably gave Stanford at least 10 points or took away 7 points from their own. By the end of the game it was obvious that Stanford was the more desperate team as they seemed to empty the playbook or at least show all of their goods. I saw the wild cat, I saw their jumbo package, I saw them turn to passing on first down because the run was not working. Stanford's offense is not that creative to begin with and I don't anticipate them changing at home. They've held a steady game plan all year. Run the ball 56% of the time, home or away and even with the success of Kevin Hogan they have actually run the ball more 60% of the time over the last three games and that falls into the strength of the UCLA Bruins who are among the best in the conference at stopping the run and even on the road they held opponents to 3.49 ypc which was better than their home stat. Their rushing offense on the flip side was also better on the road this year and watching the game film you could see Johnathan Franklin was just one play away from breaking it. He's looked the best against Stanford's run defense that has been dominant and I would argue he's the best RB in America.

The fact that they have an accurate QB to go along with that is a dangerous recipe. Hundley just seemed to have an off game last week and I think this entire team is going to bounce back and play with discipline because it is the PAC 12 Championship. They were here last year and didn't deserve it (USC Suspension) and got blown out by Oregon and this year they'd like to make a statement especially with everyone down on them again.

I'll add this last bit of info. Stanford has not been dominant really in any game this year against a worthy opponent. Even at home their games have all been decided by a TD or less. 4, 7, 6, 7, and 3 points respectfully and they should have lost to Oregon State. They did beat Duke by 37 points, and dominated California 21-3, and Colorado 48-0 on the road, but those are bad teams. UCLA is a very good team with a solid defense and a balanced offense that can move the ball so long as they are disciplined.

Rutgers -2.5 -115 (buy 1/2) 4.6** NCAAF POD
Rutgers has not beaten Louisville in quite some time and this is the perfect spot for them to seek their revenge. Rutgers is loaded with experienced players and leadership on both sides of the ball while Louisville still remains a young team that is struggling to the finish line. A lot of these players on Louisville are playing their 12th game and it's a lot in college football. They are banged up at RB losing their leading rusher Senorise Perry, and QB as Terry Bridgewater hurt his leg and broke his non-throwing arm. Bridgewater will play, but he'll be forced into the shutgun for the entire game.

That's a huge advantage for Rutgers as Louisville shrinks it's playbook. Louisville is struggling big time to run the ball just 75 yards in their last 2 games combined and it's no coincidence that it was their first two losses of the season. Well running against Rutgers with injuries is going to be even more impossible. Rutgers is 13th in ypc run defense in the nation and ranks higher than Uconn who just dominated this group up front. I see DT Scott Vallone and LB Khaseem Greene leading the way to plugging the running game. Rutgers defense on the back end is also very good they have more interceptions than TD allowed. Louisville has been very good at limiting turnovers, but they have not faced many teams that can stop the run and the pass and this is clearly the best defense they faced all year. Louisville's road schedule was extremely weak playing two of the worst teams in college football and struggling against winless Southern Miss, and FIU and then they were dominated by Syracuse, a team Rutgers is better than. Meanwhile Rutgers only lost was to Kent State (before their look ahead loss to Pitt (off a bye) last week), a team that will be going to a BCS game possibly if they can win the MAC, a conference that's better than the Big East in my opinion.

The line is low because Rutgers offense has struggled, and Gary Nova has 10 interceptions over his last 4 games, but Louisville is 70th in takeaways, and 124th on the road. That's probably because they are unable to create 3rd and long situations and get off the field on third down as well as create any sort of pressure. To put things in perspective, Louisville is -8 in tackles for loss (allowing more), and -3 in sacks and Rutgers is +18 in tackles for loss and +10 in sacks. Louisville also allowed more than 50% conversions to 3 of their 4 road opponents and 52% overall. Their road opponents were ranked 76th, 82nd, and 72nd in third downs and Syracuse converted 73% and was ranked 11th. This may be one of the few games in a while Rutgers can convert on third down which should be a major advantage. Don't sleep on Rutgers running game as Louisville's run defense is quite vulnerable allowing 4.62 ypc in conference play and 4.30 ypc on the road. Rutgers relies on the run 57% of the time over their last 3 games alone and even though Jawan Jamison is a little banged up SAvon Huggins has shown he can carry the load (179 yards at Cincinatti - only allows 3.86 ypc in conference play) - Huggins did that on the road and now he's home against a Louisville run defense that's worst. Louisville will have to be careful about stacking the box, because Rutgers has a trio of WR that if left alone create major mismatches. Brandon Coleman is 6-6, Mark Harrison is 6-3, and Tim Wright is 6-4.

Apart from those advantages Rutgers also has the advantage in the red zone as they have converted 69% of their attempts into TD's at home while Louisville is allowing 78.5% on the road. Rutgers defense also has been great in the red zone allowing just 40% conversions and 37.5% in conference play. Louisville will be really predictable when they get down there out of the shotgun and I anticipate some interceptions from Bridgewater in this game that will allow Rutgers to cover this spread. Rutgers is 4-1 at home and their wins have come by an average of nearly 18 points.

[b]Hawaii +3 2.2* play[/b]
UNLV has lost 21 consecutive road games and now they are road favorites? I don't think so. This team has been awful on the road and their defense is just what the doctor ordered for Hawaii's offense. I think the travel to Hawaii after the holidays will be the real challenge for UNLV this week and it won't end well against Hawaii. Hawaii also wants revenge form last years loss and I think they'll get it against a defense that is the worst defense they have faced all year. UNLV is allowing 53% third down conversions on the road and they have also allowed 20 more red zone attempts than Hawaii's defense. Their offense has only gotten into the red zone 9 times in 5 road games while Hawaii at home has averaged 4 red zone attempts per game. If Hawaii can avoid the turnovers which they have been better at when they've been home and of late then they should win. UNLV is 77th in takeaways and has just 2 in their last 3 games combined.

USC +5.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD); USC +190 2* bonus
This is bigger than any bowl game that USC will get and they'll face the #1 team in the country on their home field 2 days after Thanksgiving Day. Notre Dame has to travel across the country and for once they won't have a scheduling spot in their favor. This will be just Notre Dame's 4th road game and while they got by Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Boston College this will be a different challenge.

USC, has the right combination of things working for them in this match up, and I'm not concerned with Matt Barkley being out, Max Whittek is said to have the better arm, and he's had an entire week to practice and he's got plenty of confidence. Oh he's also got the best receivers in the country in Marqis Lee and Robert Woods. What I mean by the right ingredients is USC has the tools that have given Notre Dame issues in all aspects. Notre Dame has not faced any good passing teams this year with the exception of Oklahoma who are ranked 8th and Landry Jones completed nearly 70% of his passes and 356 yards. Notre Dame's offense which is one dimensional has also struggled vs. good defensive lines who can establish a pass rush and stop the run. Check, USC is ranked 17th in sack % with a 10.42% rank and they have been so good at stopping the run not even their impressive 3.6 ypc defense in home games tells the true story as they gave up 7 yards per carry to Oregon, but every other opponent could not average more than 3 yards. Notre Dame is not Oregon offensively, and they struggled against Stanford, and BYU two other teams that can get to the QB. Everett Gholston has had a lot of poise this year but I'm afraid that's about to end, he's only completing 59% of his throws on the season.

Notre Dame only throws 39% of the time on the road, but as I mentioned USC can stop the run and at some point you can only beat USC if you throw the ball and keep up with them, because Notre Dame's secondary is extremely vulnerable and who is better to take advantage than Marqis Lee and Robert Woods. I think the Matt Barkley injury is a bit over rated and being home is a huge advantage in this match up. Look for Lee to have a field day on the Irish secondary. USC is just as strong in red zone defense as the Irish are, but the difference is USC has the ability for big plays that won't require scoring inside the 20. As good as Notre Dames defense has been they have only allowed 35% conversions on third down which is not that impressive for a top 5 defense. USC actually has arguably the most balanced attack that Notre Dame has seen all year and unfortunately for Notre Dame I think USC will make this the game of their year that was supposed to be completely different.

Wake Forest +11.5 3.3*; Wake Forest +360 1* play
Wake Forest is fighting for bowl eligibility while Vanderbilt is off a huge win to their in state rival who they hadn't beaten since 1982. They are due for a huge let down in this spot and its not like Wake Forest can't pull it off. Wake Forest has tons of talent on defense inlcuding Nikita Whitlock, and their solid LB core who are active in space. They also lead the ACC in TO margin. It's not like Vanderbilt is any offensive juggernaut and Wake Forest will stop their rushing attack. They have been great at home allowing less than 3.6 ypc on the ground and have faced better running games than Vanderbilt's. Clemson, North Carolina come to mind and both could not run for more than 4 yards per carry. Vanderbilt is actually only 101st in ypc and 3.2 ypc on the road which is shocking for a team that relies so heavily on it.

Really Vanderbilt just beat 5 bad teams and none but Miss could stop the run (ranked 31st) and Miss really had Vanderbilt beat all game. Don't be shocked if Wake Forest wins this game to save their bowl chances. It's a veteran led team with a lot of upper classmen. Wake Forest is 27th in pass play % and Miss showed that you can pass on Vanderbilt as they racked up 406 yards, time for Tanner Price to show his potential.

Oregon State +10 2.2* play
Oregon is off the loss to Stanford, a team Oregon State really had beat on the road. Oregon State posses a similar defense to a Stanford squad that stopped Oregon in their own building. Oregon State has shown they have more offensive explosiveness than Stanford with Sean Mannion throwing the ball to Markus Wheaton and Brandon Cooks. Oregon State's defense also has the players that can seal the edges against Oregon's running game. DE Schott Crichton and Jordan Poyer in the secondary are two of the best in the PAC 12.

Oregon State also has started to run the ball better with Storm Woods as they are averging 40 yards more per game over their last 3 games than their season average and they faced the likes of Arizona State, Stanford, and Cal. Look for Oregon State to keep this game in distance all day as this is a huge rivalry game and Oregon State finally has the athletic talent to give Oregon fits. They are one of the best teams on third down and that's where Stanford had so much success last week holding them to 4-17 on third downs. Oregon State has held opponents to 23% conversions at home this year and they are also +2 in turnovers per game at home. Their run defense is a strength allowing just 3.44 ypc in home games and they have dominated opposing QB's with 9 interceptions and just 3 TD allowed at home.

Texas Tech +3.5 3.3* PLAY; Texas Tech +150 1* bonus
Baylor is fresh off maybe their biggest upset in program history when they shocked the nation and dominated Kansas State. Texas Tech meanwhile was busy in the road at Oklahoma State turning the ball over 3 times and getting 2 punts blocked and got blown out. This line is inflated because of this. Baylor can not possibly be up for this game even though their bowl hopes are on the line. Not after upsetting Kansas State, something nobody saw happening.

On the flip side Texas Tech remembers what happened last year in this game at Cowboys Stadium where it's played yet again today. Tech had their bowl hopes on the line at 5-6 and they eve knocked RG III out of the game at the half, but Nick Florence took over and they put up 60+ points. Florence is back, but this Texas Tech defense is much better than last year actually ranked 9th in yards allowed. They are also ranked 15th in completion % defense and have only allowed 52% conversions over their last 3. If Tech can find a way to stop the running game they should win this game out right and their players have a ton of motivation to do so after what happened last year.

Baylor has been awful outside of last week and they don't deserve to be 3.5 point favorites in this one. They are 1-4 on the road this year and while this game is on neutral field they won't get the benefit of playing with home field advantage. Baylor has the 122nd ranked pass defense, they allow 71% conversions on the road, they are 119th in sack %, and they are 124th (dead last) in third down defense. Texas Tech has destroyed teams like Baylor in the past, heck Tech even put up 56 points on the road at TCU (Big 12's best defense). I do think Baylor will put up points and have success running the ball, but in the end they'll struggle more punching the ball in the end zone and converting third downs. Tech is better at those two on both sides of the ball and they have a huge emotional and motivational advantage and there is tons of value in the line given how both teams played last week. You have to look at an entire season and Tech is clearly the better team.

Arizona State +3 -115 2.5* play
This is a huge rivalry game that has been decided on the last play of the game in the last three match ups and 8 points combined. Arizona may have the better record, but Arizona State has the better overall team and more balance. Arizona State also wants revenge in this battle after losing 31-27 at home and watching the Wildcats celebrate on their field. These coaches are quite familiar with each other as ASU's Todd Graham coached under Rich Rodriguez at West Virginia and adopted his offensive scheme. Rich Rodriguez also pilfered 3 of Graham's assistants from Pitt last year so I think Graham has a little extra incentive in this game to beat his former assistants and his old boss.

At the end of the day though the players have to get the job done and Arizona State's defensive line should give Arizona fits. The Sun Devils are #1 in sacks and sack % led by DT Will Sutton and they are also 2nd in tackles for loss which have helped them to allowing just 29% conversions on third down in conference play while Arizona allows 44%. That's huge because Arizona State also has the more accurate QB and Arizona's 3-3-5 scheme is very small and banged up. I don't see Arizona making many stops against Arizona State at all. Recently Arizona's defense had to go as far as to play 5 players who were walk ons. Arizona State's got nice depth at running back and they should be able to run on this defense that has been unable to stop the run or the pass, while Arizona State is 8th vs. the pass and should at least be able to force Arizona into a one dimensional game and if they get up early Arizona State should be a lock to win the game with their pass rush which they clearly can do given Arizona's 117th ranked defense that won't be able to take advantage of Arizona State's weakness up front as they are 111th in sack %.

West Virginia -1.5 2.2* PLAY
West Virginia found their offense again last week against Oklahoma but lost a heart breaker. There is no guarantee they get into a bowl game so they need to still win 1 of their last 2. This team finally gets a break vs. a weak offense although their score from last week would say otherwise, but I think that is why we have a low spread this week. Iowa State is not inside the top 70 in any offensive category. The last time West Virginia played a team even close to that was Maryland who they held to 21 points and won by 10 points. Maryland had a strong defense ranked 15th, and Iowa State just does not have that especially after they lost one of the best LB in the Big 12 in senior Jake Knott. Iowa State is ranked 95th in total defense 114th against the pass as they have just 14 sacks on the season.

Geno Smith and his 70% completion rate should be able to score at will especially since Iowa State has also relied on turnovers. Smith has 0 interceptions on the road and the team has 4 turnovers total. West Virginia also added in Tavon Austin at RB and he had 344 yards. I don't think Iowa State will have an answer and their offense is still not capable in the spread offense that they run as they lack the speed to play out on the perimeter. Iowa State has not been good on third down and that will keep their defense on the field this week.

Arkansas +12.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
This game is Arkansas bowl game since they won't be going to one and there will actually be a trophy for the Golden Boot. LSU has cruised by in their season being on the road for just 3 games in which they had just 42 points combined and scored more than 12 points ( the point spread) once. Arkansas 81st defense is nothing to be excited about, but their weakness is against the pass 119th in the country, while they have been stout against the run 26th and are 24th allowing just 3.6 ypc. LSU has always been a run first team and are in the tops in the nation in rushing play %, but they have only averaged 3.89 ypc on the road and 3.2 ypc in their last 3. I don't see this game getting out of hand based on LSU's offense even if they are starting to become more balanced, because Arkansas has the offense to move the ball.

Arkansas started this season as bad as you could and most of the coaching staff will be coaching their last game for this team which is led by 21 seniors including Tyler Wilson at QB and WR Cobi Hamilton who has 80 catches for 1,237 yards. LSU's secondary has not been challenged by anyone. They have faced just 1 team in the top 50 in passing attempts and that was Texas A&M who led LSU 12-0 before they ended up turning the ball over a ton. You could make an argument that Tyler Wilson is the best QB that LSU has faced all year and you better bet he wants to go out on top as a senior, saying "We've got one game left, and we know this is it. So why not go out there and light it up one more time." I don't see a significant edge for LSU in this game even on third down LSU on the road is only converting 19%, and 38% in conference play, while Arkansas is converting nearly 40% overall and their defense has been good enough allowing only 38% conversions at home. Even in the red zone LSU only scoring 50% TD's, 40% conference play and 25% on the road, while Arkansas is at 57% at home and their defense is ironically the same allowing 70% TD's in conference play while LSU is too.

Bottom line this is very much like the situation in 2008 when Arkansas was +7 at home and 4-7 with a season wrapped up they went on to win 31-30 and I can see a crazy game like that again.

Temple +8 3.3* play
Syracuse is on a high right now after back to back wins against Louisville and Missouri, but neither of those teams are as good as marketed and neither is Syracuse especially away from home. Many say this team has a balanced offense well they don't especially not away from home as they only average 3.6 ypc on the road. They could have major issues coming off a physical game going on the road for an early start on a short week and head coach Doug Marone even said he has 11 starters on the injury report including their top 2 RB's. Their offense needs both of those guys to be effective.

Temple on the other hand has been on fire running the ball and while Syracuse is 32nd vs. the run they still allow 4.8 ypc on the road and they have allowed a ton of points on the road too 27, 35, 36, 23, 17. Temple may be one dimensional, but I think they can put up some points this week against Syracuse. They are very good on special teams while Syracuse is also not very clean ranked 115th in penalties and 104th in takeaways while Temple is 44th and averages 2.2 takeaways per home game. Temples offense reminds me of Northwestern and the style of play they have does too which is very good in special teams runs with the QB and RB's. Their total yard rankings are very similar, and now they add a new wrinkle in QB Clinton Grangers which posses a lot of uncertainty for Syracuse. I think Temple will play a great game as Syracuse has a bit of a let down after playing so well, we already know this line is inflated because of that. Temple is 25-12 ATS in their last 37 following a SU win, and Syracuse is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 following a SU win and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a road dog.

TCU +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
Texas normally would play Texas A&M, but with the Aggies off to the SEC that ended one of the oldest rivalries and here comes TCU who used to play Texas in the SWC and actually have 82 total match ups with Texas. It's a great transition for Thanksgiving and will be an interesting match up for Texas who for the first time in a long time won't have the best defense on the field on Thanksgiving.

Both teams are off a bye week and I think that's even more important for a TCU team that needed the rest as they are very young. You have to wonder how much Texas was looking ahead to Kansas State who was likely to be undefeated but were shocked by Baylor. When the game starts Texas offense which has clicked at time this year will have several things they have not seen this year. TCU's defense has always been good and they are known for holding Kansas State to a season low 260 yards. Texas has dominated and gotten by on offense by facing bad defenses. TCU is ranked 16th overall and more importantly 7th vs. the run. This is by far the best run defense Texas will face all year. Over their last 5 games they have faced run defense ranked 95, 90, 89, 71, and 61 and even the game before that vs. West Virginia ranked 30th is a bit of a misconception since everyone throws on West Virginia.

On the flip side TCU has had a tough schedule vs. run defense and Texas is ranked 100th in run defense, and that's good news for TCU because in their last game they could not protect their young talented QB. At least in this game they will be able to rely on the run. TCU is 3-1 on the road in the Big 12 this season because it's where they run the ball far more at a rate of 55%. If they follow that same script they should be well in this game especially since Texas could have issues on third down with TCU who is ranked 5th overall allowing just 28% third downs. That's important to note because of how over rated Texas offense is in this situation. Texas who has converted 52% of third downs has hardly faced any real defenses that can stop it and that's likely because of they have faced poor run defenses. Overall they have faced an average 86th third down defense. TCU is also 5th overall in takeaways this season and while Texas has been pretty good at holding onto the ball they have not been tested like this. I expect a close game and I would not be shocked if TCU pulled off the upset. Gary Patterson is a good coach and the extra rest was surely a benefit to his young team.

Akron +19 4.4* NCAAF POD / Akron +900 0.5* play
Akron has 4 extra days to prepare for this game and despite being 1-10 and 0-7 in the MAC this will be like a championship to them. HC Terry Bowden has made great strides this year at Akron although the record does not indicate that. They have 4 games decided by 8 points or less and have not lost by more than 19 points on the road while Toledo has not beaten a team at home by more than 19. As good as Toledo

San Jose +3.5 2.2* LNF
This is another interesting game that nobody is talking about. BYU is 1-3 away from home and in 3 of those games they played good run defenses which is the strength of their offense. ONce again they'll play a strong run defense ranked 31st, but San Jose is also 20th in pass defense and ranked 7th in the nation with 34 sacks. QB Riley Nelson will find it hard moving the ball and the Spartans already went on the road and nearly beat Stanford in week 1. I compare that game because BYU has a similar style defense and overall team.

The real difference maker in this game is BYU's depth in the secondary as they lose another player and this time due to suspension. NFL prospect S Joe Sampson got in a fight and now he's no longer going to be able to play which is a huge loss particularly in their nickel package which San Jose can easily take advantage of as QB David Fales is completing 72% of his passes and they are converting on 48% of their third downs at home. Fales will hook with WR Noel Grisby early and often.

Ohio State +3 -120 buy 1/2 5.5* pod
Ohio State has a major advantage in this game coming off a bye week which allowed them to get healthy particularly at LB where they had some depth issues and that will go along way as they have to stop Wisconsin rushing offense. Ohio State is fully capable of doing that particularly because they feature a one dimensional offense as they are ranked 112th in passing offense and now have an unkown in there in Curt Phillips who has spent most of his career injured with 3 different knee surgeries. Wisconsin has played against 3 top 25 run defenses this year and the results have not been good putting up 7, 16, and 13 points losing 2 of them and should have lost the third to Utah State who missed several field goals. Bottom line they have gone 0-3 ATS against top 25 run defense and Ohio State is ranked 16th and they are allowing just 2.64 ypc on the road. Bottom line Ohio State does what Wisconsin does, but they do it better.

Wisconsin's defense will have major issues stopping Ohio State's Braxton Miller. Yes they are the best run defense in the Big Ten, but the only other time they faced a capable running game with multiple threats including a QB was against Nebraska a game they lost and gave up 259 yards. Wisconsin also won't be with a healthy Chris Borland who is their best player on defense at LB. He hurt his hamstring and those injuries tend to linger. Ohio State also has an emotional advantage here off a bye and Wisconsin already has the Legends division wrapped up after last week's blow out of Indiana as Penn State and Ohio State are ineligible. Ohio State will be playing this game like their default bowl game.

Ohio State has major advantages in red zone and on third downs that will allow them to win this game on the road. First of all they are allowing just 33% conversions on the year and are converting 45% good for 30th and 48% in road games while Wisconsin is ranked 108th converting 31% of their third downs, that's what an offense that has no balance will get you. In the red zone Braxton Miller is a difference maker as Ohio State has not only gotten there 9 more times, but they have scored 80% TD's and 77% in conference play to Wisconsin's 63% and 68% percentages. Ohio State's defense too has produced better numbers holding opponents to 48% TD's in the red zone while Wisconsin is ranked 68%. There is also no love lost between these two coaches and you better bet Urban Meyer will flex his coaching muscles with a well prepared game plan off the bye.

UCLA +3.5 4.4* PLAY
USC has played three balanced offenses this year and have struggled against them all. Better yet they have struggled against spread offenses with a dual threat QB and that's what they face this week against UCLA ranked 13th in total offense but 31st in passing offense and 25th in rushing offense behind the likes of RB Johnathan Franklin who is averaging 6.38 ypc and red shirt freshment QB Brett Hundley who has 6 rushing TD's and is ranked 17th in the nation in passing efficiency.

USC will have its hands full against UCLA's pass defense which on paper does not look so good because they have given up a lot of yards in garbage time, but when they are at home they have held opponents to 58% completions 6.2 yards per attempts and only 3 TD and 8 interceptions. Matt Barkley has been turning the ball over quote a bit and that's going to be a key against UCLA a team that can get into the backfield as they have 79 TFL and are ranked 5th with a 9.35% sack %. Their defense is awfully similar to Stanford who USC struggled against and lost as Stanford too gave up a ton of yards this year 102nd in pass yard defense, but were 6th in sack % not allowing Marqis Lee and other receivers down the field.

UCLA's offense has been better than USC on third down and in the red zone and you can't sleep on UCLA's ability to stop teams as they are ranked better than USC allowing just 31% conversions on third down. I think they will have more success at getting to the QB since they are home, but more than anything QB Brett Hundley possesses the skill to neutralize USC's ability to sack the QB where Matt Barkley does not unless he gets rid of the ball right away. This is a huge rivalry game and UCLA wants revenge for the beatings they have received over previous years. Look out for the X factor in UCLA TE Joseph Fauria, he's a big weapon at 6-8 particularly in the red zone where UCLA has scored 71% TD's in conference play to USC's 59%.

Marshall -3 -115 2.5* play
A good indication is what each team did against Tulsa. And there is a 464 yard difference as Marshall was +221 while Houston was -243 yards. Both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility and right now Marshall just seems like the better team to me as Tulsa just does not seem to be there emotionally after losing two of their best players in Charles Simms on offense and then DJ Hayden on defense who had a near death experience in practice. Houston's 110th ranked pass defense must go up against Marshal's 3rd ranked passing offense.

Rakeem Cato has been great all season long completing nearly 70% of his throws and has 16 TD to 2 interceptions in his home games. He's not likely to be pushed by Houston's defense on Saturday and that's a good thing for Marshall who is +7 in turnover in their last 3 games while Houston is 105th in the nation in turnover margin. Marshall has also converted 57% of their third downs at home while Houston is allowing 56% conversions over their last three. David Piland is just not at the same level as he has only converted 57% of his passes and has thrown 12 interceptions he goes up against a Marshall defense that has been bad, but ranked 54th vs. the pass and allowing just 58% completion percentage at home. Marshall is +11 in red zone attempts and has converted 21% more into TD's while their defense has allowed 10 less RZ attempts and has been better in conference play. Marshall has under achieved this year and should be able to come together and beat an emotionally unstable Houston team.

Rutgers +7 -120 4.2* play
Rutgers is the best defense by far that the Cinci Bearcats have faced and their strengths match up perfectly with Cinci's strengths. The last defense they faced was Virginia Tech and they only averaged 3.2 ypc, and that will be the key for Rutgers on Saturday, stop the run.

Rutgers is 17th in the nation in stopping the run and 14th allowing just 3.2 ypc on the season and 2.8 ypc on the road. Cinci's rushing offense is averaging 5.9 ypc at home and 5.6 ypc overall behind George Winn, but those numbers are inflated big time. Not only have they faced two FCS foes, but they have faced run defense that have the following ypc averages based on where Cinci played them (home or away) - 5.2, 4.2, 4.8, 4.9, 5.9, 4.8, 4.6. Now they'll face Rutgers who is at 2.8 ypc at home and you better believe they are ready to stop Cinci's rushing attack again starting wtih DT Scott Vallone who can plug the hole allowing LB's to make tackles for loss.

If they can stop the run they'll force in inexperienced QB to throw and Rutgers is #1 in takeaways in the Big East. QB Brendan Kay takes over for Munchie Legeaux who was terrible this year. Kay is a 5th year senior who has little playing experience and that's for a reason, he's just not good. Kay did look good in relief and then against Temple going 13-21 for 244 and 2 TD's, but Temple's defense has been awful against the pass ranked 92nd while Rutgers is 26th.

On the flip side Rutgers is going to have to score points something they've been struggling to do, but Gary Nova will have an advantage in this game as his three starting receivers have significant height advantages over Cinci's 75th ranked pass defense. Look for turnovers to play a critical role in a tight played game and Rutgers is 6th in the country in that category.

Air Force -21 -120 3* PLAY
This is a tough game for Hawaii, traveling on an 8 hour flight on a short week, and I think it will show. Add in the fact that they just are not very good and you have the recipe for a blow out. Unless Air Force continues to have turnover issues that have cost them a better season. Hawaii though has been unable to force turnovers ranking 117th in takeaways and dead last in TO margin. Hawaii has also lost their road games by 39, 47, 38, 35, and 15. The game they lost by 15 was to Colorado State, a team Air Force beat by 21 points.

Hawaii is just not a good team ranked 99th allowing 5.0 ypc facing Air Force who is averaging over 400 yards rushing per home game. Hawaii can not keep pace like they may have been able to in years past their total offense is ranked 121st, and only 255 on the road. Air Force is solid vs. the pass and their weakness is against the run, but Hawaii has been unable to run averaging just 2.6 ypc which is why they are 117th in converting third downs while Air Force is ranked 6th and converts 63% of their third downs at home. They should dominate time of possession, win the turnover battle and hold Hawaii in check on senior night which will be the final home game for 23 seniors. It

FAU -120 3.5* PLAY
Fl Atlantic is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games and now it looks like people are catching on and they are now favored for the first time since 2010 against an FBS team. One would think there is not good value on this play, but I think the fact that they are playing their best football right now is more of a reason to back them here tonight. Over their last 4 games they have averaged 30.5 ppg and they have topped 30 points 3 times. It is no coincidence that the new spread offense is starting to pay dividends toward the end of the season. QB Graham Wilbert has adapted and he

Virginia +3.5 3.3* play; Virginia +1.5 1H 1.1* play
It seems every team I take lately can only play a half a football game before going into the toilet as wast he case last night yet again. On Saturday we had covers at the half easily on two of overall losses which can be frustrating, but we have looked at this game extensively and have backed the Cavs the last two weeks with success and I am confident yet again.

First of all you have to ignore the start Virginia had to their season. Since their bye week they have been the team they should have been by cleaning up the turnovers and playing to their strengths. Next, before you get all crazy about North Carolina and their statistics their non conference schedule has been brutally easy compared to what Virginia Scheduled. Virginia scheduled three legit top 50 teams in LA Tech, who nearly beat Texas A&M (their only loss), TCU which has been in some games against good teams, and Penn State ( a team that has surprised many this year). Meanwhile, North Carolina has faced Louisville (over rated as we saw last week), East Carolina (ranked 85th), and arguably the worst team in the nation in Idaho (120th). We will go over some key stats for their similar opponents that give Virginia in my opinion a distinct advantage on Thursday night.

Before I do that we must talk about the emotional advantage Virginia has. First they have revenge on their minds from losing to North Carolina last year, they are in the national spotlight on a Thursday night at home, and they are alive for a bowl game. North Carolina is suspended from any post season action and are really just playing for bragging rights. We have seen a lot of inconsistencies from the Tarheels this year and I think that will continue on the road tonight where they have not played their best.

Turnovers and penalties. Virginia has cleaned them up going +1 in the last three games combined while North Carolina is -.5 on the road. One thing Virginia has not cleaned up are the penalties where they are ranked 104th, but UNC is ranked 105th. Both teams should be able to move the ball on the opposing defense with their running and passing game. North CArolina got shredded after having a bye against Georgia Tech allowing 68 points and 5.7 ypc. Although the stats do not show it Virginia has the RB to continue that trend in Kevin Parks and Perry Jones. Many defenses have keyed on those two players this season because the offense has not been able to pass, but Michael Rocco has been on fire lately. If he stays on fire you can forget about the dual QB system they have been running this year. I don't see any signs that point to him stopping as North Carolina's pass defense on the road has been suspect allowing 67% conversions 8.1 yards per attempts, while Virginia is allowing 55.6% conversions and 6.2 yards per attempt and keeping everything in front of them forcing teams to have convert on third down.

Third downs are such a key play in any game and even more so when two even teams face off in a critical game and Virginia just has a distinct advantage so far this season. Overall both teams are similar on offense ranked 71st and 58th for UNC, but UNC converts just 39% on the road to Virginia's 47% at home. 3rd down defense is Virginia's forte ranked 14th in the nation allowing 31% conversions and 29% at home while UNC has allowed 41% and 50% over their last three games ranking 66th, but what is even more interesting is what both these teams did in their games against 5 common opponents. Both teams faced 5 common opponents and both played 3 of those 5 on the road. The results are Virginia just out playing UNC on third down. Virginia converted 38.27% of their third downs in those games while North Carolina converted 34.67%. Virginia held opponents to 24.19% on third down while North Carolina allowed 45.56%. I give a huge advantage to Virginia on third down where this ball game should be decided. North Carolina is 1-7 ats int heir last 8 visits to Virginia and 3-11 ATS in the last 14 overall meetings.

Ohio +7 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD, Ohio +225 1* bonus
Everyone is down on Ohio it seems, but they were in a tough scheduling spot over the last few weeks as they played 3 games in a span of 12 days and lost two of them. That was not an easy thing to do and now they are on normal rest playing in a game where they can still get to the MAC title game if Bowling Green loses two games and they win out. It starts tonight and I feel this line is really off as Frank Solich is a very good game. The line is a clear indication based on Ball State

Mississippi -3 3.3* play
It's been an up and down year for the Rebels, but they are one game away from becoming bowl eligible and this is their best shot at achieving that vs. an over rated Vanderbilt team. Vanderbilt really has not faced a balanced offense like Ole Miss all year with the exception of Georgia who really brings it to a different level than the Rebels but still Ole Miss can put up the points out of their no huddle spread and they have Jeff Scott who is one of the fastest and most explosive players in the SEC.

When I mention that Vandy has not faced balanced attacks they have faced an average 111th passing attack in their 6 games + FCS foe when you take out the two decent passing teams they faced in South Carolina 72nd, and Georgia 33rd. Ole Miss is ranked in between at 63rd. Ole Miss actually is balanced ranking 46th rushing the ball and on defense too ranking 56th in total defense but 61st vs. the pass 51st vs. the run. Vanderbilt's offense is getting too much credit as they just faced 3 poor teams in a row. Their defense is still allowing 4.68 ypc ont he road and they can't create pressure just a 3.65% sack % on the road. Ole Miss on the other hand has a 5.15 ypc at home and they are converting third downs at a 12% higher rate than Vanderbilt.
The biggest different will be in the red zone where Miss balanced offense is paying dividends converting at a 70% rate for TD's while VAndy is converting just 36% of their attempts on the road.

TCU +7 2.2* PLAY; TCU +225 1* PLAY If there is a defense that can stop Kansas State it's this one. TCU is young, but arguably this is the best defense Kansas State has faced all season and definitely since facing Iowa State on the road. I expect TCU to have a lead in this game at half time even with Kansas State really struggling. Is Klein 100%? Who knows, but with a healthy or unhealthy Klein I'm with TCU in this one as they should play with the lead as long as they can avoid turnovers which have fueled Kansas State's success all season long!

Arizona State +9 3.3* play
USC is in a major hang over spot and a look ahead spot. First they play an unusual early game which won't help the home crowd at noon. They come off a devastating loss to USC at home and they have UCLA on the road next week who if they beat Arizona State they will be playing to see who goes to the PAC 12 Championship to play Oregon again.
Arizona State is a perfect match up here in my opinion. USC has had major issues against balanced offenses and in particular spread offenses with QB's that can run. Arizona State is 41st in rushing yards and 40th in passing yards. They are led by a trio of running backs and Taylor Kelly who has completing 65% of his passes and added some rushing yards. He's been good on the road in spots with 10 TD and just 3 interceptions.

ON the flip side Arizona State's defense is only allowing 333 yards per game and even held Oregon to nearly 300 fewer yards than USC's highly touted defense did. Arizona State is 7th in the nation in pass defense and that's mostly due to the fact that they are #1 in sack %. Not many people are brave enough to throw on this unit led by DT Will Sutton. I don't think Marqis Lee can have the same type of games that he's been having and I don't know where the motivation will be. There are many other reasons why I like Arizona State, but mostly because USC is over rated. They have arguably one of the best QB's and best receivers in the game yet they are 84th in third down offense and it won't get easier going up against Arizona State which has held conference opponents to just 31% conversions and is ranked 31st in the nation. Arizona State's offense also has gotten to the red zone 13 more times and have allowed 9 fewer attempts by opponents. I think there is a lot value in this line and that's why I like Arizona State to cover and even push USC for a win.

Oregon State +4.5 2.2* play
Oregon State +4.5 2.2* play
Stanford is just 2-3 ATS at home and Oregon State has beaten the three physical, run first type offenses that they have faced with nearly identical offensive and defensive numbers across the board. Those teams I'm talking about are Utah, Wisconsin and BYU. All three share a top 30 defense in common with Stanford.

These two teams have also played similar opponents in similar situations in a similar fashion and I just think this game will be close throughout and likely decided by a field goal in a low scoring game. I give Oregon State the edge because they are 21st in passing and that is a good match for Stanford's 106th pass defense. WR Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks should create mismatches on the Cardinal secondary. On the flip side Stanford likes to win with the power run game, but they are only ranked 58th in rushing yards this year and they are going up against a 5th ranked run defense. I say they struggle and putting the ball in the hands of first time starter Kevin Hogan is not going to be something that will work. At the end of the day both teams are similar on offense and defense, but Oregon State has played better in the close games. Stanford would be foolish to be looking ahead to Oregon next week, but who knows they already have too much confidence after beating up on the three worst PAC 12 teams the last three weeks.

Syracuse +2 5.5* NCAAF POD
Syracuse +2 5.5* NCAAF POD
Louisville has not played well on the road vs. bad teams and now they go up against a Syracuse team that has been very balanced on offense and defense across all major categories. Syracuse has tendency to win against ranked teams in the Carrier Dome and Louisville has just been asking for it the last few weeks.

Syracuse will be playing on senior day and led by senior QB Ryan Nassib who is capable of beating Louisville's defense that has not faced anyone really. Syracuse has had tough games here already facing USC, Northwestern both are in the top 25 in the nation and the Orangemen will look to stay alive for a bowl game.

Louisville's run defense just allowed 255 rush yards and Syracuse who has faced some of the better run defense has been able to keep a balanced attack at home with Jerome Smith and Gulley averaging 4.37 ypc despite facing two top 30 run defenses. Louisville is 50th against the run and could have issues facing a physical running back. On the flip side Syracuse is capable of stopping Louisville's 71st ranked rushing attack. They held Northwestern to 3.10 ypc which was their lowest all season by over a yard. They held both Pittsburgh and Uconn to under 1 ypc.

At the end of the day Louisville is getting too much credit they have faced poor competition especially on the road and their defense is not nearly as impressive in key categories as Syracuse especially on third down as Syracuse is 32% to Lousiville's 41.6% on the road as Syracuse is among the nations leaders in tackles for loss with 67, while Louisville has just 42. Look for Syracuse offense that has struggled at times in the red zone to get it done on Saturday as Louisville's defense has allowed an 80% TD percentage on the road while Louisville's red zone offense has been excellent it's faced an average rz defense allowing 70% touch downs and Syracuse is only allowing 50% at home.

At the end of the day going into the Carrier Dome is no easy task especially for a Louisville team that starts mostly under classmen led by Terry Bridgewater who is not close to being the same on the road completing just 59% of his passes. On Saturday for the first time this year he won't' be the best QB on the field as Nassib has been great completing 65% of his throws for 9 TD and just 2 interceptions and he goes up against a Louisville pass defense that has allowed 68% completion percentage in road games this year.

Virginia -115 4.5* play
Virginia looked good off their bye and like they are on a mission as they dominated NC State on the road, a team that beat Florida State earlier this year. Virginia's defense is allowing over 150 yards less than Miami's poor defense. For Virginia this game is simple run the ball and stop the run and they have two capable running backs in Perry Jones and kevin Parks as well as a two QB system that's keeping the balance in Simms and Rocco. Simms and Rocco have been helped big time by the return of WR Tim Smith, and they will be helped by the running game as they face the worst run defense they have faced all year long as Miami is ranked 111th giving up 5.2 ypc and even Virginia Tech rushed for 5.5 ypc on them at home and now they are on the road and this just spells trouble for MIami.

Miami also has been unable to get to the QB to force bad decision or turnovers so I expect for Virginia to keep their momentum from last week when they scored 33 points on the road. On the flip side we get value here because Miami beat Virginia Tech, but if you watched that game you know the Hokies were the better team with the exception of turnovers as they turned the ball over 2 times inside the red zone which changed the entire game. Miami is still very much a bad team and their offense that has carried them is not as good as you may think. They have faced just two defenses that are capable in stopping the pass and the run in Florida State and Notre Dame and they lost both of those games. Virginia has the same capabilities ranked in the top 40 across the board on defense. What's most impressive is their third down defense as Virginia has held opponents to 29% conversions and 21% in conference plays. Miami is holding opponents to 51% on the road. Now their offense has converted 50% ont he road but they went up against third down defenses ranked 122, 112th and 65th. Their defense has also allowed 15 more red zone attempts on the season than Virginia's unit that's been holding opponents to 50% TD%. This is just a game for Miami to fall back down to earth as they are too young and not ready for the ACC Championship game just yet.

Temple +9.5 2.2*play
Temple showed it can play with the big boys at least for a little while as they were right there with Louisville the first 20 minutes of the game. Cincinnati just does not have the offensive balance that Louisville has so I believe they should be able to hang with them even longer as the Bearcats have a major issue at QB. I Munchie Legauex is not the QB then there are still major question marks. Legeaux has completed just 52% of his passes this year and Temple is 28th in sack % and is known for getting after the QB and forcing them into mistakes over the past few years.

The Bearcats are also looking ahead to their match up with Rutgers and most likely looking past a Temple team that will be hungry to stay in bowl contention. They will do it with the run from the QB Chris Coyter and their two talented running backs the transfer from BC Montel Harris and the explosive senior Matt Brown. Cincinnati is allowing 4.4 ypc on the road and they are 100th in pass defense so I would look for Temple to throw the ball to keep them on their heels and that should lead to some points. AT the end of the day this is too many points for a road team without an aerial attack going up against an offense that likes to hold onto the ball. Temple is also ranked amongst the nation's best in many special teams categories including returns and punt yards. Cinci has already allowed a TD return and 25.25 yards per return this year. Expect field position to be in the favor of Temple all day.

Uconn +3.5 (3.3* Friday Night Lights)
This is a tough game for the Pitt Panthers no matter how you look at it. They are in a huge let down spot, traveling on a short week after they nearly beat Notre Dame in OT. Not only is there a physical hang over but there has to be a mental hang over. We saw it in the form of quotes when 5th year senior Sunseri openly blamed his kicker Kevin Harper for the reason they lost the game. Head Coach, Paul Chryst quickly reacted saying it does not fall on one guy. I just don

Last night

Last night

Ohio -2.5 3.3* play
My formulas have Ohio as a strong strong lean. My research and analysis have Ohio as a strong lean. The only reason this is not a bigger play is that the line movement is a bit funky and I'm puzzled by it, but I'm still going with Ohio based on 75% of my strategy telling me Ohio is a very strong play.

Lets make no mistake about it Bowling Green's defense is playing like its one of the best in the country. 8th in yards allowed, 16th vs. pass, 13th vs. run and 9th in scoring defense. Let's slow down a bit, because they have faced an average total offense ranked 81st. They have only played one balanced offense in Toledo ranked 22nd overall and they lost that game giving up 450+ yards in a 12 point road loss. Ohio statistically mirrors Toledo offensively in the fact that they are balanced ranked 53rd in passing and 19th in rushing. Toledo's Terrance Owens through for over 300 yards against Bowling Green at the glass bowl, and Tyler Tettleton is fully capable of doing the same. Bowling Green's defensive line is the strength of their defense, but they go up against an Ohio offensive line that features 3 seniors and is ranked 35th in sacked %, only allowing Tettleton to be sacked 2.61% of the time at home. I think Ohio will find balance in this game handing the ball off too, because Bowling Green has not been as effective on the road stopping the run allowing 4.37 yards per carry and the duo of Blankenship and Boykin at RB for Ohio is a good combo that has resulted in a 5.12 ypc average at home.

Now we spoke about why Ohio's offense can move the ball against Bowling Green, but we haven't spoke about Ohio's defense which is far better than Toledo's and I think we saw that in action last night. Toledo was ranked 108th in total defense and they held Bowling Green's offense which has nothing special to under 350 yards and 15 points. Ohio is ranked 37th in scoring defense and their one weakness against the pass that has resulted in allowing a lot of 3rd down conversions is improving. They have actually allowed just 35% conversions in back to back games and Bowling Green's offense relies more on the run as they are 83rd in passing offense. When they do go back to pass Ohio's front has done a good job at getting to the QB especially at home sacking the QB 9.27% of the time.

Overall, both teams are similar in a lot of ways, but Ohio is just far more balanced, they are playing on senior night with 19 seniors and are home which is a huge advantage not to mention they are 9-1 in their last 10 week day games. Tyler Tettleton is by far the better QB and maybe the best one that Bowling Green has faced all year. Tettleton has connected with 16 different receivers this year which to me tells just how good he is. He leads a team that's ranked 18th in third down conversions and that's by far the best that Bowling Green's top ranked defensive unit has faced. On average they have faced a third down conversion offense ranked 83rd including Toledo 39th who went 7-14 against them. Ohio will be able to move the chains, but we can't say the same for Bowling Green who are ranked 86th in third down conversions and convert a meager 26% on the road this year.

I think Ohio has played inconsistently at times which have led to some tighter games than expected but I like the way they played on defense over the last two games and I like their mind set going into this game. They are the better team at protecting their QB at home, getting to the QB, better running and passing game. They also are 8th in turnover margin to Bowling Green's 26th ranking and 46th in penalties per game while Bowling Green is among the worst in the country ranked 119th. I think Bowling Green has feasted on weak offenses that lacked balance and that has resulted in a top 10 ranking, but tonight they'll place an offense that can move the ball and protect their QB. I don't think Bowling Green will have the offense to pull the upset on senior night.

I thank everyone who has been patient with my advice of late. In the world of investing there will always be ups and downs, but our overall goal is to earn a long term profit. 25% of my strategy is fading the general public and this week was just an anomaly as the public cashed 11 of the 13 games this week against the spread including last night

LSU +9 5.5* NCAAF POD
Okay so here it is, the game LSU circled in the off season and it seems like the folks who scheduled the game wanted them to have every advantage they could. LSU not only hosts Alabama on what everyone knew was going to be the a game that had national implications, but they gave LSU the week off before. Don't sleep on Les Miles he's beaten Nick Saban before and with extra preparation should be able to put up a good fight in this game as the 6 head to head battles between these two coaches have been remarkably close on the scoreboard and on the stat sheet. I expect nothing less from this match up on Saturday night in Death Valley.

First of all no matter what anyone tells you Alabama has clearly had the weaker SEC schedule thus far having to play an over rated Miss State team at home is the highlight? Miss State beat a lot of weak non conference teams, and Alabama also played Tenn, Missouri, Arkansas and Mississippi. Nothing sexy about it that's for sure while LSU in its last three games alone played Texas A&M, the SEC's best offense, Florida, and South Carolina. LSU's pass defense is every bit as good as Alabama's pass defense and they are even better at getting to the QB, while LSU is also better at protecting the QB. Two keys in this game that nobody realizes. Alabama is 13th in getting to the QB 8.16% of drop backs, just 6.67 on the road while LSU is ranked 10th. Bama is also 108th in allowing sacks and A.J. McCarron is banged up because of it. LSU has not been great, but look at the sack defenses they have faced in A&M who is perennially a top 5 pass rush defense, and South Carolina both teams are ranked in the top 20. Bama faced Western Kentucky, but they are a team from the Sun Belt, none of the other opponents are ranked in the top 20 in sack %.

So we spoke about what happens up front and we give LSU the small advantage on both sides based on stats, but being home is an even greater advantage, but we can't help but look at the QB match up which obviously favors the Crimson Tide on paper, but... Zach Mettinberger was recruited for this type of game and this won't be the national title game. Mettinberger has a strong arm and he's completing 63% of his passes at home. I'm not saying he'll have a better game than McCarron, but I don't think there is a big enough advantage on Alabama's side here to warrant getting more than a TD on the road especially when..

Alabama's running game that they lean on so much has not faced a top 15 run defense or run offense while LSU has. In fact other than Michigan's dual threat 16th ranked run offense that's not comparable to the SEC, Alabama has not faced a top 50 rushing offense. LSU is ranked 27th but they average 5.6 ypc at home and feature 4 running backs averaging over 5.96 ypc, and Spencer Ware who is averaging 4.11. Their RB will be fresh all game long and should find some room for manageable third downs against Alabama's defense that is a lot different than last year's national title team that lost 5 starters. Alabama is 17th in rushing offense 5.2 ypc, but they'll face an LSU run defense that allows just 1.6 ypc at home and has been tested by good rushing offenses already this year.

The small things are special teams and other random stats that not many people look at. There is a lot of talk about which defense is better and I spoke about how LSU is just as good and playing at home should give them a huge advantage, but if you need a stat that tells you more LSU has 65 TFL this year and are averaging over 9 per conference game. That's 19 more than Alabama while they have also allowed 4 less TFL on offense than Alabama. That was the biggest difference in the national championship game last year as Alabama dominated the point of attack. With the extra week to prepare, + home field advantage, revenge, and all that's on the table for LSU I think there is a lot of value here and I would be shocked if the Tigers didn't cover this spread.

USC +8.5; USC +275 1* BONUS
USC was clearly looking ahead to this game after they lost to Arizona in a heart breaker. I don't think they'll have a hangover. The fact that they only lost that game by 3 points after turning the ball over 5 times on the road is remarkable. We are getting a ton of value here on USC because of how Oregon has dominated and how USC has under achieved. The public's perception is that Oregon should dominate, but USC matches up very well with the speed that Oregon possesses on offense.

First of all let's not make any mistakes, Oregon's schedule has been light and they have not been forced into a full game battle like they will on Saturday night. That is a huge advantage for USC because they have played in those type of games and have an experienced QB, while Oregon has a freshmen in Marcus Mariota who has not been tested all year. There are a ton of questions for Oregon if they get in a close game and USC definitely has the recipe.

What is that recipe? Fast linebackers and getting in the linebacker. Well USC has some of the fastest most athletic linebackers in the country Dion Bailey, Hayes Pullard, and Lamar Dawson are capable and along with a fast defensive line are among the nation's best with 59 TFL. So stop the run first and that's something USC can do allowing just 2.1 ypc at home and are ranked 22nd overall. Oregon has faced nobody that can stop the run. I mean it, not a single team in the top 60 with an average ranking of 90. Oregon also has not faced a team this talented on offense.

USC has balance with a very good run blocking offensive line paired with two of the best TE blockers who are also a threat in the red zone catching 6 TD combined in Xavier Grimble and Randall Telfer who help pave the way for Penn State transfer Silas Redd who is averaging 5.5 ypc, but the real talent comes from the receiving corps. Robert Woods and Marqise Lee are the best duo in the nation and Oregon won't have an answer.

At the end of the day I know Oregon has put up ridiculous number on offense and have played better than anyone realizes on defense, but they have yet to be in a tight game and have a freshmen QB that's going on the road. They also have a history of losing this type of game after starting the year red hot. USC still has a lot to play for and their red zone defense will play a huge factor. At home they have allowed just 1 TD in 12 opponent attempts and are allowing just 39% to conference foes.

Wake Forest -2.5 -120 buy 1/2 4* play
Wake Forest has a couple of extra days to prepare for what should be a big game as they look towards being eligible for a bowl game. Boston College is still holding out hope, but there is no way this team goes bowling having to win out after they just barely beat Maryland at home on a last minute TD pass.

The biggest factor in this game will be WR Michael Campanaro for Wake Forest as he returned last game and now has had the extra time to work in with QB Tanner Price in which should be a game where they finally have some semblance of balance against a Boston College defense that is very bad. BC is ranked 115th in total yard defense, 94th in scoring defense, 72nd vs. the pass, 122nd vs. the run. BC's defense is allowing 66% completions on the road so even Tanner Price should find plenty of success as eh's completed 61% at home and now has Campanaro to work with. Wake has faced some top defenses already this year 4 in the top 54 and they will look forward to facing a BC team that can't get too cocky after keeping Maryland in check who was working with a 4th string freshmen QB. They still allowed over 330 yards in their own building.

When we talk about getting pressure that's something we can not under estimate as Wake Forest has been very good ranked 36th in sack %, while BC is ranked 119th. Wake Forest also has 22 more tackles for loss than Boston College which should set them up in longer third down situations.

That's not a good thing as Boston College is only converting 28%, and 21% on the road, while their defense has allowed 48% conversions on the road. Wake Forest on the other hand has been a bit better holding opponents to 46% conversions and have converted 39.4% at home.

Bottom line this is a good match up for Wake Forest and their offense and defense that struggles against teams with speedier talent. Boston College definitely does not have a ton of athletes and speed and I think Wake will have every opportunity to win this game.

Virginia +10.5 3.3* Early Bird Match Up Virginia +340 0.5* bonus
NC State played their biggest rival last week in North Carolina and blew a 4th quarter 10 point lead in dramatic fashion. A hang over is clearly in order. In fact this speaks to as how big of a game that was for both UNC and NC State as they are 0-19 ATS in their following game when they are favorites (NC St is -10.5 vs. Virginia) as long as neither team was favored in the rivalry by more than 11 points and NC State was +7.5 vs. UNC.

Virginia comes off a bye and is technically still alive for a bowl game if they can win out, which I'm sure they are believing considering they play Miami, UNC, and Virginia Tech to close out the season. Not to look ahead but this team can get some momentum coming off a bye. Their issues are pretty clear, turnovers. They are -16 on the season, and it is their easiest issue to fix and that's something that can be done with an effecient game plan and that's what I think we will see with a heavy does of talented RB Perry Jones and Kevin Parks. You wouldn't believe it if I told you but Virginia is actually on the positive end of total yards in all of their last 4 games while NC State is negative in their last 3. NC State also allows less yards and both teams have had similar schedules. It tells me that we are getting tremendous value at 10.5 points especially since Virginia's defensive strength is stopping the pass, ranked 25th in opponent completion % and that's NC State's strength as they have only averaged 3.3 ypc on the season. Virginia's defense has actually allowed 60 yards less per game than NC State who have shown some cracks in their own defense. Those are the things I'm talking about that when a team comes off a bye they can take advantage of. I wouldn't be shocked to see Virginia win this game.

Miss State +7 3.3* EB play
Texas A&M came off a thumping against Auburn 63-21 while Miss State got thumped on the road to #1 Alabama. Now A&M is everyone's favorite play, but suddenly they are laying road chalk against a solid Miss State team that is always a tough team to beat at home and plays tough defense. I know the Aggies freshmen sensation Johny Manziel has turned heads in his first year in the conference, but with Alabama up next I see them peaking ahead a bit. I don't expect a hang over for Miss State as nobody thought they were going to go on the road and beat Alabama. Everything that they were playing for is still there for the taking.

This is A&M's 4th road game in 5 games and they'll be on the road again next week so this is a very difficult scheduling spot for the Aggies and this is easily their most challenging road game as they faced SMU, Auburn, LA Tech, and Mississippi. Those defenses were ranked 93rd, 113th, 43rd, and 53rd while Miss State is ranked 26th and they play in a building that's very challenging to win in. A&M should be able to run in this game because they have done it all year, but the offense struggles to score TD's when they can't find balance.

Miss State features two next level CB in Darius Slay and Johnathan Banks and that should make defending the run much easier. Miss State has been very good against the pass this year they held Tyler Bray to 148 passing yards at home and they are ranked 27th in opposing QB ratings. A&M has not faced a team ranked in the top 47 on the road this year, once again this will be Manziel's most challenging task and now that there is more tape on him it should be tough for him to carry the load. This is a copy cat league and Miss State absolutely has the personnel to copy what some other teams did against Manziel. Look for them to put a LB to spy on Manziel and force him to make mistakes.

That's something MIss State has been good at and A&M is -5 turnovers on the road this year. They are 6th best forcing 3.2 turnovers per game at home and 16th overall. That goes along with the trend of this team. The Bulldogs just don't beat themselves, 14th in penalties per game while the Aggies are 104th. Miss State has also only allowed 37 tackles for loss and rarely get sacked just 3.03% of drop backs good for 17th. They should be in this game especially since they only allow 38% TD's in red zone on defense at home.

MTSU +9 2.2* PLAY
This is a huge revenge spot for the Blue Raiders a team that has played extremely well on the road. They won at Georgia Tech in dominating fashion, while they lost to Miss St that was to be expected. This is considered one of the biggest Sun Belt rivalry games and the loser is likely eliminated from conference championship considerations. Western Kentucky has won by being dominant on defense and forcing turnovers by getting to the QB and have not won because they have a dominant offense by any means. MTSU has taken care of the ball this year (top 50 in the nation) and they are 8th in least sacked teams as Logan Kilgore has just 4 interceptions while completing 67% of his passes while being sacked just 2.02% of his drop backs.

Both teams are in the top 30 in rushing play % so I expect the clock to run most of the game making it difficult for an offense that only put up 14 points against FIU in their last game challenged to cover a 9 point spread. This offense has not been dominant and they tend to just try to limit the mistake and rely on their defense. That

Virginia Tech -1 4.4* NCAAF POD
Both teams are coming off a bye week and the winner could be a top of the Coastal Division. So as bad as the season has gone it can still turn around and I

Michigan +103 3* play The Wolverines have the better linebackers in this match up and the better overall defense. Michigan can concentrate on the run because they are 3rd in yards allowed passing. Nebraska can do the same, but that has not been a good thing as they are 92nd against the run this year. They gave up 63 points to Ohio State and Braxton Miller. Nebraska is allowing 4.8 ypc and are ranked 87th while Michigan is ranked 33rd. Michigan also has the advantage on third downs ranked 31st on defense and 15th on offense. Nebraska showed some flaws in their last game on third down only converting 21% and their defense is ranked 48th. More importantly they have allowed 100% of conference opponent red zone attempts to result in TD's. Michigan is stopping about half of those tries. That's huge in a game of this magnitude and I'll go with Michigan in the red zone here.

TCU +7.5 5.5* NCAAF POD; TCU +240 1* PLAY
TCU continues to fly under the radar and they are a few plays from being 7-0 this year. TCU is the best offense and defense that Oklahoma State has faced this season to date and they'll have their hands full at home against a well coached team that is playing more freshman than anyone in the country, but they are quality freshmen like Devonte Fields who already has 7.5 sacks. TCU brings the Big 12's best defense to town as they are going up against a balanced offense from Oklahoma State. The Cowboys though like TCU are having some issues at QB, although it has never mattered in the past we have seen their offense sputter a bit in conference play.

TCU went into three OT's with Texas Tech, an offense that's very similar to Oklahoma State. I would say Texas Tech has a better offense and clearly a more experienced QB in Seth Doege as Oklahoma State is getting ready to start a true freshman in Wes Lunt who has played this season already. TCU lead the Big 12 in interceptions, run defense, third down defense so it will be a challenge for Oklahoma State and despite the 56 points they gave up to Texas Tech they actually held Doege to under 200 yards passing for 3 quarters + 4 minutes before they started to get picked apart. Their defense has gotten beat by some big plays, but that's something that good coaching fixes and that's what Gary Patterson has, he has a solid approach and motivates his players and I"m confident they'll fix this issue.

We spoke about Oklahoma State's offense and Johnathan Randle is explosive out of the backfield but TCU is 27th against the run. Oklahoma State does not have the defense that Texas Tech has this year and they will have their hands full with Trevone Boykin who has put up 105 points the last two weeks since taking over at QB for Casey Pachal. He's a dual threat QB and that's something that Oklahomas State has not faced since their road game to Arizona where they gave up 59 points. If TCU can avoid turnovers they win and I think they will here on the road because Oklahoma State has not forced the turnovers like they did a year ago to win games. They sit 117th in takeaways and 105th in turnover margin so if anything TCU should be able to expose Oklahoma State's new QB who hasn't faced a defense that can get into the backfield like TCU.

Some other key stats. tCU is 5th in third down defense and they've been good on the road holding opponents to just 25% conversions. Oklahoma State is 9th in converting third downs but they've been successful going up against teams that are ranked on average 71st in stopping opponents on third downs. TCU can stop the run on first down and set up third and longs. TCU on the other hand is starting to get their offense clicking over the last three games they have converted on third down 47% of the time. Oklahoma State is nothing special ranked 55th at stopping third down conversions. To win this game TCU has to score TD's not field goals. It's something they struggled with against Texas Tech, as they kicked 6 field goals, but it still took triple OT for Tech to escape with a win. Now Tech has been better in red zone defense than Oklahoma State as the Cowboys have allowed 71% TD's in conference play and 71% overall on the year. Their offense also has struggled scoring TD's in the red zone just 46% a far cry from their 72% season average. TCU has hold opponents to 53% TD's in the red zone and should give Oklahoma State issues.

Texas Tech +7.5 3.3* play; Texas Tech +250 1* play
When looking at this match up you have to look at what the strategy is for both teams. Both teams are in the top 10 in play % for what they do well.
Kansas State is 6th rushing play % and Texas Tech is 9th in passing play %.
And both those stats increase in their home/away splits with Texas Tech slinging the ball 63.4% of the time on the road and Kansas State rushing the ball 73% of the time at home.
Knowing these facts allow me to know what to concentrate on in this match up. I look at three keys.
Texas Tech's run defense, Kansas State's Pass Defense and Balance Def/Off.
1.) Texas Tech's Run Defense - Can it stop Kansas State?

Georgia Tech -2.5 2.2* FREE PLAY
Georgia Tech came off their bye and they rolled over Boston College as they should have, but they were able to click on the ground and now they have a new look with QB Vad Lee who is a bit faster than Tevin Washington who is having a good year as a senior. I'm thinking the duo will be able to run all they want on BYU despite BYU being a top ranked run defense.

The fact of the matter is BYU got exposed last week against Notre Dame and now they have to make a long trip in back to back weeks to face a Georgia Tech team that is still desperate for a big win to hang their hat on. BYU's usual stout run defense gave up 6.3 yards per carry to the Fighting Irish and they also gave up over 100 yards rushing to two running backs in Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood. Now they'll face a Georgia Tech rushing offense that is 7th in yards per carry and have multiple options in the triple option featuring Orwin Smith. I guarantee BYU won't be prepared for this type of rushing attack. The last time they faced was in 2010 and they gave up 6.4 ypc to Air Force.

Georgia Tech is no Air Force or Navy they have a lot more talent on both sides of the ball and should be able to get a big win at home. I also think BYU's run defense is a bit inflated since it's played 4 teams that are not in the top 100 in rushing offense. Expect Georgia Tech to dominate at home and go on a little bit of a run now that they put things together after their bye week.

Maryland +2 (3.3* play)
The Terrapins have some revenge to take care of after they lost this match up at home last year and they should get it done in an ugly defensive battle. Maryland is top 20 in run defense, sacks and total defense led by DE Joe Vellano and a strong linebacking corp led by the tackling machine in Demetrius Harstfield. Boston College can forget about running the ball they are 109th with just 3.1 ypc and Maryland's front 7 is just nasty against the run. This game will fall in the hands of QB Chase Rettig who is only completing 56% of his passes but does have 13 TD and 5 interceptions. I'm not buying the play of Rettig here as the Terrapins are 5th in opposing QB completion % at 50%. I don't see how Boston College moves the ball here with the 120th ranked third down offense converting just 27% going up against Maryland who is 29th in third down defense.

Okay, so Maryland has offensive issues of their own, but they are so much better on offense and there is a reason why Boston has been run on by a higher % than any other team in the nation with the exception of Washington, Air Force, Hawaii and FAU. They can't stop it allowing 5.5 ypc, and while Maryland hasn't been able to run effectively this year their injury to the QB should lighten things up because they'll have an option QB that's more of a runner. I expect their new QB system with Devin Burns running the read option to pick up chunks especially since Boston College has not seen it much because Maryland has not run it much.

Another area of concern for Maryland has been protecting the QB, and although they'll throw the ball when they bring in a new QB other than Burns they have to be concerned because they are dead last in protecting the QB. Well Boston College has not gotten in the backfield on anyone they are 118th in sack %. This is not the same Boston College defense we saw with dominant LB play from years past. Over their last 5 games they have been out gained by 1266 yards. Maryland is young but they have more play makers including freshmen STefon Diggs who is a game changer in this game. He's great returning the ball as well as getting the ball on quick outs. At the end of the day Maryland also holds advantages in the red zone holding opponents to 29% TD's and 25% in conference, BC has struggled big time only 40% TD's in the red zone and their defense is allowing 60% TD's. I think Maryland wins this game outright.

Illinois -1.5 4.4* NCAAF EB play
Illinois comes off a bye here after they faced three top 20 defenses and their offense and stock has fallen dramatically, but I think we get good value in an early game because of it. For the first time they'll face a poor defense in quite some time.

Illinois defense is under rated as they have only allowed 2.6 ypc on the ground in their home games and I think they can hold Indiana's explosive running back Stephen Houston in check. Illinois is actually among the nations leaders in forcing three and outs and that's something their offense surely will benefit form on Saturday. The main issue with this group has been blown coverages and missed tackles and that's perfect for a bye week. It's something that can be cleaned up and on paper this is still hte best defense that Indiana has faced on the road. No doubt head coach Tim Bechman will see the tape of Indiana's strength in the passing game. Cam Coffman has been good on short intermediate routes but lacks any arm strength to throw to the perimeter and I think Illinois will bring their safeties close to the action. Illinois is also only allowing 34% 3rd down conversions at home while Indiana only converting 36% on the road.

Now offensively Illinois should be just fine. Facing three top 20 defenses in Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State going into the bye will make them work that much harder and coming out of the bye facing a defense like Indiana should result in positive things. Indiana is 85th in third down defense and they struggle against mobile QB's. Nathan Schelhaase may actually be able to have a good game. He's been knocked out of games because of the poor play of a banged up offensive line, but in this game that will be different. For one his offensive line is actually healthy and Indiana is 101st in sack % and only gets to the QB 2.38% of drop backs. This is a big week for Illinois with it being homecoming as well and they just meet an Indiana team at the right time, unfortunately for the Hoosiers.

Iowa +5.5 (3.3* PLAY)
Northwestern has struggled with no identity on offense as they are only averaging 274 yards per game over their last three facing some pretty good defense in Penn State Minnesota and Nebraska, but Iowa is ranked 27th in total defense and should give Northwestern fits too.

I think we are exaggerating last week's results which saw Iowa lost to Penn State big at home and Northwestern nearly upset Nebraska. Iowa flat out lost and struggled on defense, but that was to be expected considering Penn State came off a bye and Iowa just came off a huge win against Michigan State. Northwestern was out gained by more than 200 yards, but were lucky to be +3 in turnover margin against Nebraska to be in the game as Nebraska muffed two punts that Northwestern recovered. These are the small things that Northwestern does well. Special teams +turnover margin, and they don't beat themselves.

However, coming into this game Iowa is 27th in turnover margin and their special teams coverage is excellent so Northwestern will have to dominate on both sides to cover this spread and I don't see it happening even with Iowa losing 2 offensive line starters last week. First of all Iowa will get their key player Mark Weisman back as he got hurt early against Penn State. Also Northwestern has a banged up secondary missing 3 key players. This might finally be the game we see Iowa's QB James Vandenberg look like himself. Actually I'm betting on that's what we will see. Northwestern has been unable to sack QB's anyway so pressure wont' be an issue and Iowa has already played 5 top 30 pass defenses and now Northwestern is ranked 54th and they are beat up which should result in Iowa's ability to move the ball.