West Virginia/Uconn Under 45 (4-Dime OE play)
Looking at the line up I favor Uconn as the public is all over West Virginia opening at -7 but the line has moved hard in the last 24 hours to -6. I stay away from games like this. Uconn is too beat up as they start a red shirt freshmen at QB and they just come off a game where they were pathetic against Louisville a solid defense where they had 0 points now they go up against West Virginia who has an even better defense.

West Virginia

NC State +4 -105 bodog (4.4 Dime POD)
NC State will host Florida State for the division lead. Both come off byes and will be plenty prepared for this game. Many have said Florida State's defense has improved well we will find out tonight as Florida State gave up 349 yards passing and 5 TD's in a 45-42 win at home against NC State and Russell Wilson a year ago.

One thing is for sure both teams are better and right now Florida State is hotter as they won 5 in a row and NC State just lost to East Carolina. So that's why you see NC State as a home dog here, but I'm not buying into FSU just yet. This is just the second time they are facing a team with a passing game in the top 20. The first time they lost 17-47 at Oklahoma. NC State has a better passing game ranked #7 and a similar rushing attack ranked 83rd. I also like the fact that NC State has faced a much stronger schedule. Their offense has faced an average defense ranked 48th, while FSU has faced 64th. On defense NC State has seen an average offensive attack ranked 53rd, while FSU stands in at 69th. I just feel NC State has been tested on both sides of the ball on a consistent basis. The key will be can they stop the run. They got killed on the ground against Virginia Tech which is the closest resemblance of what FSU does which is run the ball. Virginia Tech is a bit better than FSU on both sides of the ball yet NC State led 24-13 in the third and 27-21 in the 4th quarter and were losing 34-30 before a garbage TD with 34 seconds left. They were +67 yards despite the loss. I believe the time off has allowed them to put together a plan for a one dimensional offense and FSU's QB Skinner will have some issues here as he is not 100%.

Another key is whether or not Wilson will turn the ball over when he doesn't NC State has the passing game to compete with any. I still don't like Florida State's secondary they are still young and Oklahoma's Landry Jones just tore him up. Boston College's pass game is awful so the 10 pass defenses do not surprise me. FSU has just 6 picks this year so Wilson's INT problems shouldn't be a huge issue going into tonight.

La Tech +38 -110 (4.4 Dime POD)
Let's get the week started off on a high note with La Tech heading to the blue turf as monster under dogs. This team only lost by 10 a year ago to Boise and to start the year they have faced a much more challenging schedule with three top 10 passing attacks and 4 top defenses inside the top 37! Boise really can not say the same as they have faced yes a cup cake schedule despite facing virginia tech to open who we know was just awful early in the season Boise faced Oregon State at home who is also not as advertised. Overall they have faced an average defense ranked 91st with 4 of the 6 opponents in the 100's in total defense. Same goes on the other side of the ball as their #1 claimed total defense in the nation is solid no doubt, but look at who they have played. An average 95th ranked offense. They really haven't faced a balanced attack at all this year.

This line is inflated because the public 85% on Boise to start are buying in that Boise has to do something to prove they are worth be ranked #1, but 38 points against a solid LA tech team that is 51st in total offense 42nd pass, 61st run and that's them facing an average 50th defense including TX AM, Navy, Southern Miss and a surprising Hawaii team. On defense their ranks are bad no doubt 113th overall but htey have faced some top flight offenses already with some big passing games. Any teams numbers would look a little down in this spot.

Both teams have had some extra time off to prepare and I think that really benefits LA Tech in terms of covering this whopping 38 point spread. LA tech has been on fire in their past two games gaining 1,110 yards behind QB Ross Jenkins and RB Lennon Creer who has back to back 100 yard games. LA tech runs a fast-paced offense out of the spread that could give Boise some problems as they will play lose with trick plays.

Tulane +10 -110 (4.4 Dime LNF)
I love Tulane here tonight as they are a desperate team playing a UTEP team that has not looked very good since their schedule has started to pick up.

Let's start by saying that Tulane has faced a schedule featuring Tulsa, Army, Rutgers, Houston and Miss all teams likely going bowling and two non -conference teams that are much more talented in Rutgers and Miss. Utep on the other hand played some of the worst teams in the nation New Mexico State, New Mexico and Memphis all three have 116, 115, and 117 total offenses it's no wonder UTEP's defense is ranked 67th as they have faced an average opponent ranked 82nd. The defenses they have seen have been even worse if you can beleive that. UAB last week shut this team down and you were along for the ride. Tulane now has arguably an even better defense statistically than UAB.

UTEP facing an average 99th ranked defense with UAB the best thus far at 71. Tulane comes in ranked 65th and 27th against the pass which is the best combo UTEP has seen. Tulane has been tested too with three teams having top 54 offensive programs and then Army who has 8th ranked rushing attack. Their 94th run defense is not that bad as they have faced 4 top 20 running teams. Again I said it before Tulane desperate on the road and the public is all over UTEP -10.5 at 72%, but the line is dropping to 9.5 in some places. I'm liking my chances and Ryan Griffin will have a big day as he will start just one week after a career high 412 yards passing against Tulsa. Trevor Vittatoe looks to be upgraded as probably for UTEP but I still like Tulane as this is the best pass defense they have faced all year long since Houston ranked 39th.

Both these teams have played Houston on the road actually. Houston beat both, but they only beat Tulane by 19 and had just +18yards of total offense. Against UTEP they were +216 yards and won by 30.

Missouri +3 -110 betonline (4.4 Dime Prime Time)
Missouri has had troubles with Oklahoma in the past but this is revenge for their loss in the 2008 Big 12 Championship. This is the closest match up between these two teams in many years in my opinion. 77% of the public is jumping on Oklahoma and their #1 ranking but hte line has dropped from +3.5 to +3.

Oklahoma has not faced a passing game that is this good. The closest thing is a Cinci team that they also played on the road and barely beat 31-29. Cinci did not have their act together then either and now they are ranked 43rd. Missouri is ranked 19th and they are not turning the ball over like in years past. Oklahoma has 81st pass defense and they got that mark by facing an 81st average passing attack. Air Force doesn't really even attempt to pass yet they still are ranked 82st. Missouri also has a better defense than what Cincinnati has shown which makes this game even more desirable as Missouri is very strong up front and ranked 29th overall in total defense.

Missouri was a huge question mark, but now they are starting to become the real deal as they beat a very similar team last week on the road in Texas A&M in which they forced turnovers and dominated the game in a 30-9 win. A&M ranked 18th in total offense 10 in pass 63 in run.. Sound familiar? Oklahoma is 17/12/56.. So similar and Missouri held that team to 9 points on the road. Now dont' get me wrong Oklahoma is much more of a challenge, but their defense is not typical Oklahoma defense and Missouri should be able to keep QB Blaine Gabbert clean. He's been flawless this season and he's looking like a mature confident passer. Defense gets a premier pass rusher back in Aldon Smith look for him to play 10-15 plays and give Landry Jones some pressure. The defensive line overall has played well and they are stopping the run too which is what they'll have to do against DeMarco Murray. They've only allowed three rushing scores all year long.

AT the end of the day Oklahoma is not the same Oklahoma team of years past. They haven't had a difficult schedule to really make me say wow they should be favorites and Missouri could be in great shape if they win this game with Nebraska on deck.

LSU +6 +100 Matchbook (5.5Dimes)+195 (1-Dime)
I love LSU in this spot and I think they have more talent than Auburn. Everyone says LSU has no offense, but the fact of the matter is they have faced some very good defense in and out of conference. An average defense ranked 42nd including 39th vs. the pass. LSU just caught a break as they face Auburn who can not stop anyone ranked 108th on pass defense. This will be the worst defense LSU has faced all year and that will help them big time in this game. Florida is the closest thing to Auburn who is ranked 82nd vs. the pass and LSU won on the road 33-29. LSU has the best defense and I'll take defense over offense anytime they also have arguably the best special teams in the SEC too. I think Jarret Lee and Jordan Jefferson are going to give Auburn plenty of problems. WR is deep for LSU and they have talent all over the field. LSU also comes off what looks like a bye as they faced Mcnese State last week and they have a real bye after this game before facing Alabama. Right now LSU has much more focus on this game while Auburn had to play Arkansas a week ago.

Just like LSU hasn't faced a defense this bad.. Auburn has not faced a defense this good. So that's two things in our direction that give me confidence. The last time they faced a defense that could sniff what LSU can do was Miss St and they squeeked by 17-14 on the road. We already know LSU is better than MIss State ast hey beat them 29-7 this year. Hold on Auburn we got a 15th ranked rush defense that looks good against LSU. Not that it matters because Auburn is so so bad vs. the pass, but their rush defense is over rated because most people bomb away vs. Auburn and they have only faced one team ranked in the top 50 in rush offense. This is just like the last two games I chose as my POD with Wisconsin vs. Nebraska.. Nebraska facing a new test.. and Michigan facing a new test after all the hype against Michigan State. Both games I got out right victories I believe the same happens here on Saturday.

Kent State -2.5 (3.3 Dime Oddsline Error)
Looking on paper the public love Bowling Green 60% but they opened up at +1 and have moved to +2 and +2.5. This moves to a full field goal by game time, but I like Kent State none the less. They are favored on the road for a reason. A team that has lost 16 of their last 17 at Bowling Green is out for revenge after losing in the last second in a 36-35 game. Spencer Keith is a nother year older at QB for Kent and he put up 35 points on a more veteran BG defense.

Bowling Green is really banged up both starting CB's look to be out as Lorenzi is suspended one is not going to be 100% if he gives it a go. WR Sam Kirkland for Kent could have a big day he has 31 receptions already. Bowling Green's starting RB could be out too and their OL is a mess starting a guy who was a defensive lineman at the beginning of the year. This is going to be a big game for a guy not many know about freshmen DT Roosevelt Nix who has 10 tackles and 6.5 sacks is a beast sitting in the middle of what Bowling Green wants to do. Kent has #19 total defense in the land compared to Bowling Green's one dimensional #100 offense. While Kent has not really seen many offense this year I don't think they'll be tested on Saturday again. Bowling Green will pass a lot ranked 35th is a lot like Miami Ohio and Kent lost on the road by 6, but difference is Miami Ohio actually has a defense and was healthy. Bowling Green is banged up and their defense is ranked 116th in the nation.

Miami OH +3 (2.2 Dime Play)
Weird line in this game as I feel Miami Ohio should be the favorites. This is not the same team that went 1-11 a year ago. Zac Dysert is looking dangerous and I think he posses a direct threat to Ohio who hasn't faced an offensive passing attack like this all year. Miami Ohio will throw the ball 80% of the time and should put up points here at home. They were able to get the win last week at Central Michigan which was a huge win for this team and I think they carry that confidence over to this week. Bowling Green has a similar one dimenstional passing approach and Matt Schilz was able to throw for 277 yards but the problem for Bowling Green in that game is they could not stop Ohio from running the ball. Miami Ohio is better suited to stop the run as they are ranked 49th vs. run defense.

In fact this is the best defense they have faced since Toledo. While Ohio's offense struggled early it's clicking in their last three games and that's why you see them favorites. But I'm not buying in their last three opponents had scoring defenses of 119, 109, and 113 while their total defenses were 106, 116, and 104. Now they averaged 39 pts per game during that time, but Miami Ohio ranked 69th have been tested this season by Central Mich 45th offense, Florida, Missouri 43rd, and Cinci 34th. Their defense is better than the stats say because of the tough schedule.

X-factor Ohio's pass rush... It's a key factor in this game as Miami Ohio and Zac Dysert will throw the ball all day as they did last week against a Central Michigan pass defense ranked 61st after they got beat for 399 yards 3 TD 0 interceptions. Miami Ohio also forced 4 turnovers and held Central Michigan to field goals int he red zone. I think they can do that again in a tight game that will have them winning.

Navy +7 buy 1/2 -120(3.5 Dime EB)
This has been a match up that the last three years has been decided by a total of 10 points with Navy taking 2 of three. A few weeks ago I may have liked Notre Dame, but Navy and Dobbs finally look healthy as they rattled off two impressive wins against SMU and Wake Forest. They came from 14 down to beat SMU and that really impressed me.

First of all SMU is the closest thing to Notre Dame that Navy has faced as SMU has a similar offensive attack with 28th ranked pass game vs. 70th run while Notre Dame is at 18/97. Difference is SMU's defense is a little better at 56th overall while Notre Dame at 82nd. SMU similar run stop 43rd was not able to hold Navy in check . Many think Navy can't beat Notre Dame through the air but I would not be surprised if Dobbs took some shots seeing as Notre Dame is so bad in stopping the pass. Notre Dame may rave about the run defense holding last 4 opponents to an average 79.5 yards on the ground but they faced some bad run offenses 107, 62, 103, and Stanford 23rd who ran for 166 yards.

Notre Dame comes in with 18th ranked passing attack but they have faced an average 80th ranked opponent. Navy is now ranked 9th in pass defense and that bodes well for Navy who seems to be one dimensional in my opinion. Crist won't be able to do whatever he wants in this neutral site game that is closer to home for Navy.

Navy in the red zone last 2 weeks are 8 for 9 with all 8 being touch downs. I think this game will be another tight game with possible OT written all over it, but in the end I think Navy has the better team and I think they pull off the win.

Cincinnati -8 4.4 dime pod

There is this thought that Cincinnatti has the worst defense in the Big East and I do not agree. Statistically they have given up 366 yards per game, but let

Oregon is the biggest challenge for UCLA. Unfortunately for them they are coming off 12 days rest much like themselves. I expect huge things from Thomas and James and this offense against UCDLA who is ranked 92nd against the run now facing Oregon who is ranked 1st. I

Wisconsin +4.5 -110 bodog (5-Dime POD)
Wisconsin has been pointing to this game and it all starts up front. In years past Clay has been stopped by Ohio State, but I feel he can make a statement in this game at home and I feel the Wisconsin defense is being under rated. I like Wisky here today Ohio State now #1 is about to have their dreams shattered as they really have not been tested all year their defense ranked #3 and #4 against the run has faced an average offense ranked 84th. Wisconsin will be the best offense they have faced. Wisconsin dominated the game last year and although they lost 31-13 they know they should have won as they held Ohio State to 184 yards and had the ball for 42:47. Normally you see a win for that kind of domination. Again I expect both teams to be heavily on the ground and for the game to be decided by a touchdown. Wisconsin already got a gut check against Michigan State and now it's Ohio State's turn as they haven't faced anyone with a pulse yet.

Texas +10 -110 bodog (4.4 Dime OE play 1-Dime on +300 ML)
This line is a little crazy for me as Texas defense has been fantastic against everyone else, and this game reminds me a bunch of last weeks MIchigan STate vs. Michigan game. First year dual threat QB Denard Robinson going up against an actual defense for the first time at home. Instead we have two rivals going up wiht Texas defense that is still stacked and can get the ball faster than any of the other opponents that Nebraska has faced. Texas ranked 20th vs. the run while Nebraska is 2nd running the ball same situation we had a week ago with Michigan/Mich St. Note Nebraska has faced a defense ranked 99th vs. the run this year that's on average. Now they face a team that can actually get into the back field and cause pressure and mistakes. Texas is 9th in the nation in sacks and second in tackles for loss. This spells trouble for Taylor Martinez who is not out there to throw the ball and if he does interceptions and turnovers will happen. Nebraska has made mistakest his year and have been lucky. They have fumbled 18 or 19 times and only lost 7 of those. Martinez will throw some interceptions against a talented Texas secondary because Texas is not going to watch him roll up 300 yards on them. Texas has the extra week of preparation which is trouble for Nebraska. Look for Texas to take shots early on Nebraska and I think the running game gets some push up front that is where Nebraska is beatable. Both teams different from the Big 12 Championship game a year ago, but it's not a 10 point spread!

Maryland +14.5 -110 bodog (2.5 Dime play)
Clemson does not deserve to be two TD favorites the way they have played this year. They lost on the road a year ago to Maryland who has been playing a lot better this year than in years past. Clemson who loves to hand their opponents the ball time and time again play Maryland who loves to take especially when a team is driving which is the reason they are only giving up 18 points per game yet they are under dogs by 14? I think this is an error early on the day that Maryland will exploit. Maryland can get their running game going with Davin Meggett and Da

Louisville +3 -115 (3.5 Dime Oddsline Error)
Huge weekend ahead and it starts tonight. The home dog has not been cashing during the week, but a week ago it did with Rutgers over Uconn and I think it does again tonight.

Cincinnati looked good a week ago, but this was against Miami Ohio now they

West Virginia -10 -110 (3.3 Dime OE play)
We have been getting beat badly during the week on home dogs. A trend that usually cashes our ticket. That

Marshal +6 -110 (4.4 Dime) Marshall +200 (1-Dimes) BODOG
This is a huge game for Marshall if they want to go bowling this year. I believe this team is drastically under rated and it'll show tonight against one of the favorites in the C-USA to win in UCF. Not only does Marshall have 4 extra days to prepare, but they are home where they play significantly better football including their 3 point loss to West Virginia a team that has a better defense than these hyped up Knights.

Now the Knights are one dimensional they runt he ball 65.5% of the time so I think there is a case for Marshall to keep this one in reach and win it in the end. Look for DE Vin Curry and LB Mario Harvey (11 tackles) in last years 1 point loss to give freshmen QB Godfrey plenty of problems. Head Coach of Marshall John

Miss State -5 (3.3 Dime POD)
Houston may have the bye week here for extra preparation, but Miss St had a cupcake last week and although coaches will tell you that they don

Arkansas St -2.5 -110 betus (4-Dime OE play)
This is a huge situational play as North Texas is beat up. Just how beat up? Let's start up front where they are on their third string center and 4th string QB. QB Chase Baine who has never thrown a pass in a college game will start. Along with those issues they have lost a total of 12 starters which has led to turnovers and sloppy play including a record 15 penalties last week. One bright spot has been Lance Dunbar who ran for 141 yards, but he's doing it against poor run defenses an average 81st rush defense is what they have faced. Now Arkansas State struggles with stopping the run, but when you know you can load up the box and you have the experience of facing Auburn, Troy, and Louisville's running attacks 8th, 44th, and 30th ranked you should be able to hold your own. Standing in Dunbar's way will be pre-season Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Bryan Hall at DT and MLB Javon McKinnon coming off 16 tackles from a week ago.

On the other side Arkansas State has put up at least 24 points in all five of their games and that's against some pretty good competition as they have faced an average 61st defense and have the #33rd ranked total offense. North Texas will have issues and when you are ranked 81st in scoring defense and 108th in scoring offense you probably aren't winning many games. North Texas has to keep this game low, but I don't think they'll be able to as QB Ryan Aplin threw for a career high three TD's vs. Louisville ranked 37th in pass defense and seems to get better each week. Arkansas St is balanced too as RB Sirgregory Thornton is averaging 7 yards per carry and was considered on of the top backs out of Tennessee out of high school. Look out for WR Dwayne Frampton ranked top 10 in Sun Belt in all purpose yards. Oh Arkansas State has beaten North Texas 5 straight times.

Michigan State +4.5 (5-Dime POD)

Michigan is getting the praises every where and Denard Robinson can do no wrong thus far this season, but hold on have they even played a defense that can stop anyone? Indiana is one of the worst out there yet when they needed to get a stop when Michigan had the ball up a TD they did. Now they have faced a defense with an average rank all around over 90th. Michigan State comes in with the best all around linebacker Greg Jones and all American candidate Eric Gordon and sure CB tackler Chris Rucke in hand to stop Denard.

I

Michigan State +4.5 (5-Dime POD)

Michigan is getting the praises every where and Denard Robinson can do no wrong thus far this season, but hold on have they even played a defense that can stop anyone? Indiana is one of the worst out there yet when they needed to get a stop when Michigan had the ball up a TD they did. Now they have faced a defense with an average rank all around over 90th. Michigan State comes in with the best all around linebacker Greg Jones and all American candidate Eric Gordon and sure CB tackler Chris Rucke in hand to stop Denard.

I

Indiana +22.5 -110 5dimes (3.3 Dime play)
Indiana has a real chance to do some damage and make a huge upset against an Ohio State team that looks beatable. Their secondary is beat up with three injuries and some starter playing through injuries. That's a total of 5 players 3 not playin in Moeller, Barnnett and Evege, and Torrence and Chekwa who are not 100%. Add in that Pryor who is of similar dynamic to Denard Robinson has a nagging thigh injury. Will he be able to take off like he did a week ago?

Ben Chapel is just to good and this passing offense is too good not to put up enough points to stay in this one. Ohio State is ranked 18th in pass defense, but I mentioned the injuries and they haven't faced a team that can pass yet so this is a great opportunity for Indiana and I think they'll take advantage of it.

Rutgers +5.5 (3.3 Dime play)
Rutgers nearly beat a UNC team at home and only lost by three granted UNC has been beat up but based on how they play that game was more impressive than many think. Rutgers still can stop the run and I think Toddman and the Huskies run offense will have some issues trying to get their offense going in New Jersey tonight. It will be a close low scoring game. Take the home dog in this situation.

Kansas St +12 -110 BODOG (4-Dime POD)
This is the biggest Kansas State game in quite some time and it has all the recipes for a low scoring game. I'm going with the home dog here.. I think there is still much much more to see from Nebraska before they are ranked #7. Remember they have a rookie back their in Martinez at QB that is the majority of their offense with 496 yards rushing alone. Martinez is prone to throw interceptions and fumble the ball and going up against a Kansas State defense at home that is ranked #13 against the pass this should be a run first offense for Nebraska shortening the game. Nebraska has fumbled the ball 16 times already this season with 7 of them being lost to opponent. Odds would tell you against the best defense they've faced all year in the first true road game that they would have some mistakes again. Nebraska ranked #14 in total offense has faced an average 85 total defense with South Dakota an D1 AA team not being factored in those statistics and they held them to 17 points.

Kansas State on the offense side figures to do the same thing on offense run the ball. Though they have experience behind center in Sr. Coffman this is a run first team with their Sr. star Daniel Thomas who had 19 carries and 99 yards last year vs. a better Nebraska run stop unit. This year's Nebraska team has given up 2 100 yard runners already and those came against Western Kentucky and South Dakota. People are saying Nebraska has the better run stop unit with #53 rank but they have faced an average #71 run offense while Kstate ranked 102nd have faced an average 36th rushing attack. I think it's closer than people think and with Nebraska getting most of their rushing offense from the rookie QB I think Kansas State with DAniel Thomas has the better running game. He's got 628 yards and 6 TD's this year and I expect him to get 30+ carries tonight which again will shorten the game. If Kansas State scores first we cover it's imperative that they get off to a strong start so that they don't have to turn to a passing game vs. arguably the best secondary from Nebraska. Again Kansas State is tested facing some good secondaries thus far and that's partially the reason for their 103rd passing rank also they sure do run a lot. I believe Snyder pulls out all the plays tonight and I would not be surprised if he takes some shots early so Nebraska doesn't load the box.

Special teams is pretty much even. Nebraska has the better kicker and Kansas State has the better return man with William Powell returning 32 yards per return. Nebraska is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Knasas State and 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 as favorites more than 10.5 points.

UAB +13 -110 Sportsbook3.3 Dime Play)
Both of these teams are quite similar in the fact that they are coming off rough losses as UCF lost at Kansas State and UAB lost in double OT to Tennessee.

I'm more impressed by UAB and I think this is an error UAB has faced 4 FBS schools while UCF played South Dakota in their first game. UAB might be the best offense that UCF has faced yet as they are ranked 28th overall in the nation, but have started to get it done big time with their dual threat QB situation with pocket passer Bryan Ellis over 700 yards passing the last two weeks and David Isabelle who can run it. Now this also may be the best defense UAB has faced, but I think Tennessee's D still has plenty of athletes and UAB ran all over them putting up 544 total yards. Just ask LSU if Tenn has a decent defense. But again that's still not why I'm picking UAB. UAB's defense is under rated as their ranks tell you otherwise.. Their weakness is in pass defense 107th, but they have faced some pretty good passing teams including Troy ranked #6. for an average 42nd rank. UCF really struggles passing the game and if UCF runs the ball a lot UAB has the 46th ranked rush defense.

UCF has gone back and forth at the most critical position on the field QB. They will have their hands full with UAB defense that is under rated full of speed and athleticism as they held Tennessee to just 245 total yards and 42 rushing yards. Head Coach George O'Leary is saying he'll play both freshman Jeff Godfrey and junior Rob Calabrese. Godfrey as a starter had jsut 222 yards and completed only 23 of 42 passes.

The strength of UCF is defense for sure and they have looked good all year long keeping them in games.. But that does not equal beating a team by two TD's which is what they have to do today against UAB. I don't see it happening considering the way UAB's offense is clicking and their win against Troy looks that much better after Troy's defense dominated a pretty good MTSU team last night on the road. This team has always put up good offensive numbers against Central Florida in the last two years they have put up 911 yards combined.

Middle Tenn -3 -120 buy

Boston College +3 -110 bodog (5-Dime PLAY)
If you have followed me you know how much of a believer I am in fading Notre Dame. We have been on all three of their losses ATS and I believe this will be the third. Only 28% is on Boston College and I'm loving it because I guess nobody has been watching this Notre Dame team close enough. Sure the passing game has clicked, but this defense is still a mess and Kelly was never the type of coach that was going to improve a defensive mess left by Charlie Weis.

Last week we were disapointed in BC against Vtech as we had them, and a closer look shows multiple chances for Boston to have scored TD's. It was 3 turnovers and poor clock management before half time that did not get them into the endzone. The defense was solid once again and this is a strong team up front that will stop Armando Allen without a blink. With that said Crist is going to pass, but a one dimensional Notre Dame team facing the best defense that reminds me a lot of Stanford all year. The atmosphere is going to be crazy in Boston a night game in front 45,000 screaming fans. Notre Dame will have all kinds of issues with the BC offensive line that was able to get 111 yards on 19 carries for Montel Harris vs. a Virginia Tech front that is playing out of it's mind right now that was the one bright spot for the Eagles that will get carried over.

BC has elected to bench Shinske which is a good thing.. I think BC surprises ND early with some play action. Notre Dame is giving up 190 yards per game on the ground and with this huge O-line BC should finally be able to find the endzone. Again the key is can BC stop the passing game and I say yes. Notre Dame has not faced good passing defense which has led to the early success of Crist. The best one they faced was Stanford last weekend and although Crist through for over 304 yards against the nations 11th ranked pass defense he got most of that in garbage time and he did throw an interception. The other three teams are ranked 96th, 104th, and 61st in pass defense respectfully. Believe it or not BC will have an offense this week with a new QB and it'll be a game dominated by time of possession for the Eagles.

Wyoming +4.5 -110 5DIMES (4-DIMES)
Wyoming plays TCU and Utah next making this game against an over achieving Toledo team a MUST WIN! Now that does not mean they will win, but Toledo can over look this game as they are off to a 3-1 start and that will be a mistake. Wyoming is playing good football I mean they have had to face an average ranked #12 defense. Toledo is weak in the secondary and I think QB Samuels can have a good day. He's got 68.2% pass efficiency despite throwing just 4TD and 4INT he has faced some of the best secondaries in the nation including Air Force, Texas and Boise State.

On defense Wyoming held Airforce team averaging 41.3 ppg to only 20 points and they led 14-7 through 3 quarters. Toledo will have their home opener spoiled. Despite getting by with victories on the road against PUrdue and two MAC teams Toledo has turned the ball over 8 times luckily they have taken the ball 12 times, but not in this game. Wyoming is a tough bunch and I feel they get this game after facing a tough schedule to start the year.

Memphis +10 -120 buy 1/2 point 5dimes (3-Dime play)
Memphis beat a solid Middle Tenn team and took UTEP to the wire on the road looking like a much better team the past two weeks. LB Jarmon Huges and the front defensive line have looked really good. This team is hard hitting and a very physical team that is going to give Tulsa some issues playing at home. They are coached by Larry Porter and several other coaches with SEC background giving them a physical and passionate team full of energy. The last two games has seen their defense hold two top 40 offensive teams to under 30 points. They held UTEP who had been averaging 496 yards to 288 yards and that counts their 95 yard drive late. Memphis is also top 25 in interceptions and Kinne is prone to that kind of mistake with 5 interceptions in the two losses. I just think Memphis will have a good game on offense facing a defense that ranked last in pass defense and their offense is ranked #5 but Tulsa has only faced a 104th ranked defense on average. Memphis may be the best defense they face.

Indiana +10.5 -110 Bodog (5.5 POD) Indiana +330 (1.5 Dime Bonus)
81% of the public is backing a Michigan team favored by double digits on the road in conference that has proven WHAT? Okay they have the #1 offense as of right now in the land I'll give them that, but they have gotten that done against an average 92nd ranked defense. Indiana is playing decent on O but that's not where they'll win this game. More on the offense of Michigan that week by week gets weaker in my opinion as there is more and more tape on them. Denard Robinson injured his knee and he'll play but not sure how healthy he'll be. This could be a look ahead game for Michigan as they face Michigan State next week. This could be a huge mistake for them as the Wolverine defense has not been able to stop ANYONE on offense. I remind you they started 4-0 last year and dropped 7 of their last 8 games.

Indiana has been pointing to this game since last year. With the bulk of their offense returning from the team that lost 33 to 36 on the road they are ready. Ben Chapel is mighty capable of thowing against a Michigan defense that gave up 200+ pass yards to CT, Umass, and Bowling Green three teams that are not known for their air attack. Chapel has 9 TD's 0 Int's and 72.4% pass completion. This is going to be a shoot out and don't forget about their running back Willis as he racked up 152 yards on 16 carries a year ago. Chapel's targets in Celcher, Turner and Doss will give the Wolverines tons of issues early on Saturday and they won't be ready. Not to mention Michigan's special teams has been dreadful as they are among the worst in the nation in punt returns and they are still looking for a kicker. This could be huge in a shoot out game if Indiana can force some 3rd and longs.

LSU -16.5 -110 bodog (3.3 Dime OE)
I like the Tigers a lot despite being heavily favored and I think Vegas may have caught this mistake with more public on Tennessee the line has moved two points from opening at -14.5. For one the field will be tilted for Tennesse all day with awful field position. You either kick it to Patrick Peterson and watch him make plays or you kick it out of bound and give LSU good field position. Why do I bring this up? Well LSU's defense is stout and I think they force Tenn into lots of third downs where they are an embarrassing 11 for 48 this year at 18.97% that's worse in the nation. LSU is among the best on defense allowing opponents to convert just 27.6% of the time.. Is this going to magically change? I think not.

Okay so you want to play the LSU can't pass game? Okay you try passing if you are LSU against these pass defenses. West Virginia 24th, Vanderbilt 35th, North Carolina 4th, Miss State 42nd. Tenn is ranked 73rd and they have not really faced good passing offenses with 44, 90 and 33. I think LSU's offense comes alive this week at home and they finally get the passing game going.. With rumors of Patrick Peterson getting some offensive touches I think LSU rolls easy to a 30+ point win. This is not the same Volunteer team they proved that to me at home when I had them at +12 vs. Oregon and they were up early 13-3 only to get waxed and play terrible pass coverage vs. Oregon in the second half giving up 48 points.

Virginia +7 (2.2 Dimes)
Yes I'm fading another heavy public heavy team in Florida State. The public loves State 71% are on the road team and the line opened at -7 and has dropped to -6.5 in some places as Vegas wants more and more action on these guys. I'm not this dumb.. and if you are reading this you are fortunate too, because Virginia is solid on defense they held USC on the road to just 17 points and this is a veteran secondary that won't allow Ponder to expose and run up the score. Top 15 NFL draft pick Dowling at CB will lock down one side of the field and DE Cam Johnson who has 3.5 sacks will coss some pressure on a Florida St team that is struggling to protect their QB. Ponder has dinked and dunked with just 6.7 yards per completion. They have a 28th ranked offense sure.. but who have they faced? An average 104th ranked defense.

Florida State's secondary might surprisingly get exposed despite Virginia having a solid run game with Perry Jones and Keith Payne who both are averaging over 6 yards per carry and combined for 135 yards vs. USC. The secondary features 4 new starters for FSU. Bottom line both teams will try to chew up clock giving us the advantage against the spread. Too many points for a Florida State team that is getting two much respect after beating two bad teams in BYU and Wake Forest.. BYU lost again last night against Utah State getting crushed.

Clemson +3.5 -110 bodog (4-Dimes)
I love this game early as Clemson is getting no respect against an over rated Miami team. Not much separates these two teams in my opinion. The rankings show Clemson's D down, but they have faced an average 36th ranked offense as opposed to MIami that has faced 65th. At home this team is going to be fired up on defense with an extra 5 days to prepare I think this is going to be a hard hitting low scoring game. Clemson is as good as it gets on the defensive line with arguably the best defensive line in the ACC and they'll face an average offensive line from Miami. Bowers and Branch on the outside will create pressure while DT Jarvis Jenkins returns at full strength. Harris forcing throws under pressure is never a good thing and when you have ball hawking safeties like DeAndre McDaniel and Rashard Hall back there you are in good shape. Miami's offense is ranked 96th in the country and it doesn't get easier facing this defense.

Miami's defense on the other hand has been dominant, but against who? Pitt has struggled against everyone this year so holding them to 3 points although really impressive would not be the same on the road at Clemson. Andre Ellington and Jamie Harper are lighting up the stat sheet. Against Auburn ranked 28th vs. the run Ellington rushed for 140 on 22 carries while Harper added 44. Both are capable receivers too with a combined 7 receptions for 96 yards in the hard fought loss on the road to Auburn. Kyle Parker is under rated and he's got targets along with emerging TE Dwayne Allen who will have a big game when Miami LB turn attention to the talented backs.

Again not much separates these teams and Miami is favored because they are Miami.. the public is jumping on them and the line is going the other way. They are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 as favorites while Clemson is 19-7 in their last 26 as under dogs and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 in conference play.

Utah St +4.5 BODOG -110 (4.4 Dime pod)
I like Utah State in this spot at home against an equally bad team. I think Utah State has actually looked better on the offensive side of the ball with QB Diondre Borel a dual threat QB. He is the type of QB BYU has had issues with this season. Utah State is not getting respect at home because BYU is still BYU in the eyes of many including the public that is betting them 65% and this line opened at +6, but the smart money is coming in on Utah State moving this line to +4.5 and +4 in some places. Overall Utah State's O is ranked 51st in total offense and that's against an average 67th ranked opponent. BYU is ranked 82nd against an average 59th ranked defense.

Utah State was able to hang with Oklahoma and they did their best through the first half vs. Fresno that had them in a position to win, but everything changed after that. This game is huge for both teams as a loss likely means no playoffs with a tough road ahead. Right now BYU can't do anything and that includes getting a pass rush which has been the main issue that has held back Borel and the Utah State offense. I expect them to be able to move the ball on BYU as the Cougars suffered two devastating injuries making this defense that ranks 102nd in the land that much worse. linebacker Jameson Frazier has a broken thumb and their top nose tackle Romney Fuga tore up his knee. This should give Utah State some room to be more balanced.

BYU Offense has struggled and Utah State's D has gotten better and has not played to it's potential. At home on national TV on ESPN look for first year starter Jake Heaps and the young offense to have plenty of problems.

TX A&M +3 -110 betonline (4.4 Dime POD)
I really like the Aggies in this spot. Not only has the line gone from +3.5 to +3 with just 23% of the public backing them, but they are facing a highly over rated Oklahoma St squad that not many know about.

Many are raving about Kendal Hunter and his 157.7 yards per game average and that is all justified he is one of the returners from last years team that was solid, but a new QB 26 year old Brandon Weeden who is lighting up the scoreboard is up for a rude awakening. This is a team that lost 4 starters on the offensive line and their #1 ranked offense is partially due to the the three teams they have faced having total defense ranks of 117, 109 and 113. They are getting way too much hype in my opinion and the Aggies are on revenge in this spot too. That's not all.. and they are about to see an actual pass rush featuring last years leader in sacks Von Miller.. and he's backed by a rookie you will all be hearing about soon in Damone Moore. Cowboys struggled in a couple of goal line situations vs. Tulsa and Troy and that is an indication that this team is not all mighty.

The Cowboy defense will have 9 new starters on defense it's the reason they are #78 in the nation in total defense to start the year. Jerrod Johnson should have a bounce back game after the bye week and I trust he will have a big game. He's got a balanced attack with Christine Michael who has three straight games of rushing for 100+ yards. But the new thing with the Aggies is the defense. Tim DeRuyter takes over the defense with a very aggresive style that is going to give first year QB Brandon Weeden some issues especially with 4 new starters up front. A&M I believe will be able to shut down Kendall Hunter and that should = a win for them. They are allowing just 2.2 yards per carry and are #10 in total defense. Despite playing non-quality opponents I am still impressed with an improved defense that should have the Aggies in talks of winning the Big 12 South.

Fresno +2 -110 5DIMES (3.3 Dime play)
I like Fresno here they have made their point early this season that they are a play in the . They have a veteran led team and they play an Ole Miss team that is in shambles. Jerem Massoli has not been himself and I don't think he'll ever reclaim what he was at Oregon again. Ryan Colburn the veteran QB for Fresno has completed 70% of his passes and that's really not why I like Fresno here. They lead the nation in sacks with 10 and though they played Utah State and Cinci they have always stepped up big in non-conference games against the big boys and rarely get blown out. I think that is the indication of this line and the movement here. Ole Miss has turned the ball over 7 times in three games and lost to Jax St and Vanderbilt. Fresno will get after Massoli and force some turnovers and AJ Ellis who came with 165 yards last week vs. a Utah State team that hung with Oklahoma, will give Fresno a balanced attack.

Stanford -4 -120 buy 1/2 (3.5 Dime OE play)
Stanford shut out UCLA and dominated Wake 68-24. It's the defense that is making me salivate at this line against a Notre Dame team that I love love fading and have done so in winning fashion twice this year. Notre Dame just 17-35 in their last 52 home games ATS. They are an over rated bunch sure they can pass the ball, but they are facing their stiffest test on Saturday vs. Stanford.

Andrew Luck is a dual threat QB that throws darts all over the field behind an OL that has allowed 1 sack and supports a running game that seems to be hitting stride just fine without Toby Gerhart. This is another nightmare match up for the Irish defense that is just not very good. This is the best QB the Irish have faced so far. This OL supported 5.8 ypc a year ago against the Irish , but that's not what I'm here to talk about.

It's the Stanford defense that is making strides moving to a 3-4 defense this should give Crist some problems. LB Chase Thomas is a force since moving from DE to LB recording 3.5 sacks. They are 6th in the nation in total D 227.7ypg and are #1 in pass defense no misprint. Though Notre Dame is the best offense they have seen other teams still were expected to do more including Wake Forest who had 7 points before Stanford sent in the subs in a 68-24 rout. Last year STanford won at home by just 7 and Brandon Tate killed them with 10 receptions 201 yds and 3 TD this year there is no Clausen and no Tate both in the NFL. Crist has looked good, but how good against STanford team that is now +1.67 in TO margin so far and he is playing behind a yougn inexperience OL in my opinion. Crist will score, but Stanford wins by 10+ points.

Arkansas +7.5 -120 @ 5DIMES (2.5 Dime OE play)
This is purely strength vs. weakness if Alabama have any. Well they do and Ryan Mallet takes advantage and revenge in his worst game last year vs. Alabama. He was cool under pressure last week against Georgia, and Alabama is breaking in three newbies in the secondary that has dominated early, but haven't faced a real passing game. Though Duke likes to throw they have an inexperienced QB and same goes with Penn State. Alabama has also had some tackling issues and their run defense is giving up more than 40 yards more on the ground early this season.

Arkansas meanwhile is surprisingly averaing 8.7 tackles for loss and 4 sacks per game. They even held Georgia at home to 10 points until 10 min left in the 4th quarter. Their offensive line neutralized a strong Georgia pass rush and Alabama is 112th int he nation with just 2 sacks so far. Arkansas 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home don't be surprised if they pull out an upset.

Northwestern -6.5 -110 5 Dimes (4.4 Dime POD)
I believe the rebuilding of the Chipewas is not this close under their new coach as they have looked good early, but to be honest they haven't even faced a QB yet playing against Hampton, Eastern Michigan and Temple who basically abandons the pass. Persa the red shirt junior has looked as good as any QB in the nation this year with 6 TD 0 INT's and 81.6% passing efficiency.

Northwestern's close call @ Vanderbilt looks better now that Vanderbilt went on the road and beat Mississippi last week. This is not why I like Northwestern at home as much it's more to do with their defense that has 9 takeaways and can really dominate an opponent as it has shown so far this season giving up just 37 points in three games. That's the play of Quentin Davie who had 90 tackles last year with 5 sacks he's already got 20 tackles and 3 interceptions to go along with a sack this year. It'll go along way as this is a veteran D line in front of him that should give Central Mich problems. I don't trust Radcliff at all as the QB for Central Mich though he has thrown for 795 yards and 3 TD he also has 2 interceptions.

Northwestern has won it's last 8 against MAC teams and this reminds me an awful lot like Central Mich's trip to Boston College where they were just killed in a 31-10 game. Northwestern should take advantage of the opportunity to start their season 4-0.

Boston College +4 (2.2 Dime Early Bird)
Virginia Tech has been sloppy and they lost to James Madison after losing to Boise State to open up the season. now they go away from the MId -Atlantic into a hostile environment in an early battle with BC. Tech just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 @BC where the Eagles play defense.

It's defense and running the ball two ingredients for home dogs to cover. Tyrod Taylor will have his hands full with two terrific sideline to sideline LB's in Herzlich and Kuechly who has 21 tackles in 2 games. Boston College also has an advantage of having an extra week of preparation here. the running game should improve with Montel Harris and one of the largest Offensive lines in the country anchored by LT Anthony Costanzo. I just think Virginia Tech does not have the experience inside to deal with this size which will allow BC to keep the ball for long periods of time and really shorten this game which is what they want to do.

Virginia Tech's Ryan Williams injured again and it's not much of a lose the way Evans and Wilson have played, but Evans has 2 fumbles in 2 weeks and that could be a huge difference in a hostile environment. All the pressure is on Vtech and BC can play lose as dogs. Shinskie had a nightmare game vs. Vtech last year, but he's home and Boston won't ask him to do much but his Chris Pantale the TE over the middle and they have size at WR that can stretch the field to loosen up the running game.

NC St +8 -110 5DIMES (3.3 Dime EB play)
NC State has had an extra two days to prepare for Georgia Tech's offense that really hasn't looked sharp until the second half against North Carolina a week ago. The reason is clear as this team lost Dwyer and only return two starters along the offensive line, one of which is now 2nd string. Either way Tech will be a handful to prepare for, for the Wolfpack that has gotten off to a surprising start. Problem also will be on a very weak Tech defense that also has many changes they have gone from a 4-3 to a 3-4. They face Russell Wilson a dual threat QB that should give them some issues. They faced two subpar pocket passers the first two weeks in Yates and Webb now Wilson is a challenge.

NC State has stuffed the run the first two weeks holding Cinci to 2.4 ypc and UCF 2.8ypc, but both teams do not feature a running game like Georgia Tech. NC State has three talented linebackers that should help here with Audie Cole and Terrell Manning anchoring. NC State's strength on offense is it's offensive line that averaged 310 lbs and 6'3 which should give Tech a lot of issues and Wilson plenty of time to escape the pocket and make throws on the run like he likes to do. Yates/Webb through for 388 yards on 36-53 while throwing just 1 INT. Wilson should beat that. Tech is just 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning record while NC State 23-10-1 ATS in their last 35 as a road dog.

SMU +17.5 (4.4 Dime POD) -110 Sportsbook
All the talk is on TCU and the public is hammering them, but I'm looking at June Jones team a bit differently here. The traditional air it out team is harder to prepare for now as they have a 235 running back named Zach Line who can carry the load and is averaging 8ypc. TCU will most likely shut him down, but that will open it up for Kyle Padron and his athletic receivers. Darius Johnson has 15 catches, and Aldrick Robinson is a deep threat and one of the fastest players in college football. TCU DB's is the weakness of this team if you can even call it one. SMU receivers are a bit more talented than the secondary for TCU as they have given up some long TD's and they are young.

On the other side of the ball Dalton is a similar QB to Padron one that can run and throw with accuracy. SMU's defense is really under rated and will give Dalton a new look. Dalton will try to find weapons, but this running game is going to be stuffed in my opinion looking at all the pressure on Dalton on the road in a "red out" environment. That's right SMU should be sold out as they are hosting the highest ranked team since 1989 when they had #1 Notre Dame. This is a huge inter state rivalry and SMU's defense is good enough to hold this close and their run and shoot offense is good enough to hold it's own and put up some points to cover 17 points. Overall I give SMU a shot to win this game which is why I love this play on Friday night.

Special teams edge to SMU and this will be a big part of this game. Matt Szymanski is one of the top kickers/punters in the country. He's already perfect on every attempt including a 61 yarder and he averages 42 yp punt with accuracy he'll likely keep it away from Kerley here and field position will be very important. Along with that Darryl Fields for SMU is averaging 34.3 yards per kickoff. Finally I'm not going to bust you with trends like I have before I think is the most important quote of the day, "SMU is probably the best defense we've played to this point of the season," Patterson said. "Their passing game will be the best true passing team we'll see to this point and their offensive line...will be a challenge." Coming straight from TCU's head coach. Now I realize he's probably not under estimating a much improved SMU team from years past, but this will be a battle and a close battle. IN 2005 a similar situation TCU came in #5 in the country and lost 21-10. I expect the crowd to really get to DAlton here.

Pitt/Miami Under 49 -110 (3.3 Dime OE Error) Pitt +4 -110 (2.2 Dime bonus)Lines @BROBURY
Make no mistake Pitt is beat up and lost their best defensive player for the season it looks like as Romeous is out with a herniated disc. However, I think there is plenty talent on this defense to contain a Miami offense that does have weapons all over the field, but likely will get impatient when it does get on the field as I believe Pitt will hold onto the ball for long periods of time via the running game.

Pitt has yet to get the running game going with Dion Lewis a Heisman candidate and I believe they make a statement and do that tonight. The three interior offensive linement are new and have had issues, but with the bye week I expect a much improved look than the team that struggled in Utah which is a much more difficult place to play. If Miami stacks the box Jon Baldwin will have a huge night in one on one coverage as he

Pitt/Miami Under 49 -110 (3.3 Dime OE Error) Pitt +4 -110 (2.2 Dime bonus)Lines @BROBURY
Make no mistake Pitt is beat up and lost their best defensive player for the season it looks like as Romeous is out with a herniated disc. However, I think there is plenty talent on this defense to contain a Miami offense that does have weapons all over the field, but likely will get impatient when it does get on the field as I believe Pitt will hold onto the ball for long periods of time via the running game.

Pitt has yet to get the running game going with Dion Lewis a Heisman candidate and I believe they make a statement and do that tonight. The three interior offensive linement are new and have had issues, but with the bye week I expect a much improved look than the team that struggled in Utah which is a much more difficult place to play. If Miami stacks the box Jon Baldwin will have a huge night in one on one coverage as he

Arizona -2 (4.4 Dime LNF Play)
I like Arizona and the line movement is supporting my thoughts as Iowa is big public favorites to the tune of 69% yet the line has moved from Arizona being under dogs to favorites. This is a tough game for Iowa going west to play Arizona with a rebuilt offensive line. This is the firs time Iowa's line will be tested and Arizona has a relentless pass rush with Ricky Elmore and Brooks Reed. Add in that they can shut down one side of the field Revis style with CB Trevin Wade and this will make life difficult for Stanzi on the road. Arizona has sped on the perimeter to give Iowa problems which will frustrate the defense as Nick Foles has ben great early on connecting with Juron Criner for 12 receptions and 236 yards. Iowa will have to honor the run too as Nic Grigsby is healthy and can burn them. This is a huge game for Mike Stoops who plays his alma mater and previous employer. Look for Arizona to come up with a big win behind the home crowd. Top it all off it's supposed to be close to 100 degrees something Iowa should not be prepared for.

Utah State +4 (4.5 Dime POD)
This line has really come down and I'm buying into what Utah State did against Oklahoma in week 1. Bottom line here Fresno is coming off the bye and does that help them prepare for Utah State? When you hit the injury bug it doesn't really as Robbie Rouse their best RB is out as well as SR WR Devon Wylie. So this team is a bit banged up and although their QB looked good against Cinci in their opener with 4TD he'll have more trouble against a Utah STate defense that is no longer a push over.

Utah State has a dangerous passing offense with Borel who can scramble and had 331 passing yards against Oklahoma. If they clean up the turnovers they should win this game. This is probably the biggest game for Utah State at home in quite some time and I think they will continue their success of 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home. The last 3 meetings in Utah between these two have been decided by a total of 4 points and it seems as though Utah State is the team that has improved the most since last year's game where Fresno won 31-27 at home which is a different animal in terms of a major advantage for Utah State which is expecting a sold out crowd.

Fresno's win over Cinci has really died out afte rCinci's latest performance and I really think the wrong team is favored here. Cincinnati gave up a bunch of sacks but they looked awful again last night against NC State. Fresno is still the team to me that forced just 15 turnovers in 13 games and only 11 sacks. They've always had an emphasis on running the game and now they need to find a runner. That'll be their main mission which will result in a close battle between these two.

La Tech +3 (2.2 Dime OE play)
Navy has looked bad just 27 points in their first two games. Is La Tech getting Navy at the right time? La Tech has a major revenge spot here as they lost on the road 32-14 and now they have seen the triple option offense. La Tech has the spread offense installed and this is a new look that Navy has not seen yet this season as they have been passed on just 19 times facing two run heavy first offenses. La Tech is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and only lost by 10 to Boise at home and by 8 at LSU. this is a huge game for them and they've been tested by TX A&M and I think that game will help them. The LB's are the strength of the team as Cole and Dudley can stop Navy's QB Ricky Dobbs who doesn't seem to be 100%. Special teams features WR Phil Livas who is electric.

AirForce +17 (3.3 Dime Play)
Air Force continues to fly under the radar despite holding BYU to 88 yards passing a week ago and winning. We had Air Force a week ago and we take them here against Oklahoma. Oklahoma seems to have the tendency to look ahead and here they are in a let down spot after a big win last week. This is a team that struggled against Utah State in week 1 and Tim Jefferson is a lot more elusive than Utah State's QB. But the main story here is Air Force's defense that has been phenomenal. This is a secondary that gave up just 5 passing touchdowns if you take out their loss against BYU where they gave up 5 in 2009. They even shut down Houston's Case Keenum 222 yards and 6 interceptions in a rout of their bowl game 47-20. Oklahoma has struggled with Mountain West teams including BYU which they lost to a year ago on opening week. Air Force has what it takes to stay in a game especially getting +17, because their pass defense is great and they run the ball all the time.

Arizona State +11.5 (3.5 Dime Early Bird)
Wisconsin a #11 ranked team has not looked sharp early particularly against San Jose State only out gaining them by +96 yards and winning 27-14 at home. That's because this is a run first team and even though they return 10 starters including bruising back John Clay and their offensive line is big I think that the Sun Devils match up will for this type offense. Arizona State is very Big10 defensive type and they have enough size and strength to keep Clay from going wild with Tackles Lawrence Guy, Falahula and quality athletic linebackers. Arizona State probably won't be able to run the ball, but their spread offense agaisnt the Wisconsin defensive line that has just 4 sacks against subpar opponents will surely allow Arizona State to score some points with QB Steven Threet who has 630 yards and 5 TD's through the firs ttwo weeks. Again this is an Arizona State defense that led the Pac 10 in total defense and only lost at Georgia early last year by 3. They have more offense this year and in a "running type game" this is destined to be close. While I see Wisconsin winning it will be much closer than the line indicates and Vegas seems to agree as the line opened up at +15 or more and only 34% of the public is on Arizona State yet the line has dipped to +11 in some places.

Nevada +3 (4.4 Dime POD)
I like Nevada here at home under the bright lights. Cal has looked great the first two weeks, but let

Cincinnati +2 (4.4 Dime POD)
Wrong team is favored here in my opinion. I think NC State is getting too much credit for what they did at UCF which was not impressive to me at all. Russel Wilson their star just 10/30 for 105 yards. That's supposed to be the strength of the team and it was not the reason they won as they only snuck by 28-21 even though they forced 5 turnovers and had a block punt. I'm concerned about NC State in this spot against a Cinci front 7 that absolutely will make you pass. They have shut down the running games of Fresno State just 1.6 ypc and Fresno is one of the better running teams in recent years. Cinci will get a much needed win here tonight as NC State's experience on the offensive line as they had five offensive linemen that had never started a game and two running backs that never been in a college football game. You have to have a balance to beat a good team and they can't have a balance and I wouldn't be surprised if Cinci with their new 4-3 defense gets at Wilson. This alignment has produced 12 sacks.

NC State's defense was great a week ago shutting down UCF and forcing turnovers. With that said Zach Collaros does not turn the ball over and NC State will have a tough time preparing for this team. First week they threw it 41 times and although not that successful Collaros did not throw an interception. Last week against Indiana State, yes Indiana State they got the running game going for more than 260 yards without their feature back. Isaiah Pead is expected to return giving NC State a fuzzy idea on how to defend the Bearcats. Bottom line I think Collaros can be great in this offense and they have the weaopons in Armon Binns and DJ Woods. This is an easier game than visiting Fresno State in my opinion as they had to go out west to play a good team. NC State off to a good start and the public and the lines have proven that, but I still think they are going to struggle in this spot.

NC State +3 (4.4 Dime POD)
I really like this game as the best on the day as the best player in the building will be the Wolfpack's returning QB Russel Wilson 31 TD 11 INT and over 3,000 passing yards a year ago. Wilson has composure and good presence in the pocket. I don't think he'll be afraid of star end Bruce Miller coming off the edge as he's very capable scrambling and he's got the receiving corp to have a great day against an inconsistent secondary from UCF that returns 3 starters, but is the same team that gave up 297 yards in their bowl game to freshmen QB of Rutgers Tom Savage. Wilson is better than Savage and I expect a big game for him as he seems more focused than in years past.

The big news here is Nate Irving at LB returning for the Wolfpack. He is a big boost to this defense which will face a 2 QB system. I'm not confident in Calabrese although he can run and pass he is very raw in his Junior year and the freshmen Godfrey is just 5-11 and 176 pounds He might have trouble passing in the pocket over these two lines. UCF will run the ball a lot with Jon Davis 1109 yds 14TD last year. UCF has strength at WR, but again can these QB's get it to them? NC State can have the advantage in special teams with TJ Graham a special athlete that can take it back at any time.

This is the 4th year in a row that UCF is facing an ACC opponent. They beat NC state two years ago but that was by 2 points and NC state gave up a 92 yard TD or close to open the game. NC State will be able to stop that kind of big play with the return of IRving playing in his home state. UCF could not play with Boston College or Miami in their other ACC match ups. I just think that UCF will struggle here and NC State needs a win here to be considered in the ACC. UCF just 13-28 in their last 41 non conference games.

Wyoming +28 (3-Dim Oddsline Error Play)
Wyoming has one of the strengths that will give Texas problems. Wyoming is flying in with arguably what could be the best secondary in the Mountain West. They gave fits to Txas a year ago when the score was 13-10 at the half. Wyoming will be playing with heavy hearts this week as they lost Ruben Narcisse in a car accident this week. Often times guys come out playing hard in those situations and I think Wyoming will.

The 28 points is just too much for a Texas team that won't be flying up and down the field against this secondary. Texas should be able to run the ball on Wyoming and I believe that is what they will work on, but that should bring their total points scored down far enough. Texas came out flat a week ago and they are not a given here. Wyoming can play a little defense to keep themselves in games. This is a team that lost by just 10 at Air Force lastyear and 12 at Utah and beat Fresno in their bowl game. With no real running game or starting RB to start the year for Texas I expect them to struggle a bit here in the early going. Texas wins, but they don't cover the 4 TD spread.

Tenn +12 (2-Dime Play)
Lots of new faces in Tennesse, but they are still Tennessee with a solid defense playing in front of their home crowd of 100,000 people. Oregon has talent all over the place, but the one question mark is what I think will help Tenn get the cover and keep this game within striking distance. Oregon will start a young Darron Thomas in his first road start and he has to do it at Tennessee in front of a sold out crowd. This is night and day compared to what he faced a week ago. Tenn will force a couple of turnovers and will be good enough to slow down the running game of Oregon. Why I like this so much is there will be lots of running. Tenn will be throwing a bruising Tauren Poole and David Oku up the middle at the softest part of the Oregon defense the interior line. I expect them to set up a lot of play action passes and success.

Wyoming +28 (3-Dim Oddsline Error Play)
Wyoming has one of the strengths that will give Texas problems. Wyoming is flying in with arguably what could be the best secondary in the Mountain West. They gave fits to Txas a year ago when the score was 13-10 at the half. Wyoming will be playing with heavy hearts this week as they lost Ruben Narcisse in a car accident this week. Often times guys come out playing hard in those situations and I think Wyoming will.

The 28 points is just too much for a Texas team that won't be flying up and down the field against this secondary. Texas should be able to run the ball on Wyoming and I believe that is what they will work on, but that should bring their total points scored down far enough. Texas came out flat a week ago and they are not a given here. Wyoming can play a little defense to keep themselves in games. This is a team that lost by just 10 at Air Force lastyear and 12 at Utah and beat Fresno in their bowl game. With no real running game or starting RB to start the year for Texas I expect them to struggle a bit here in the early going. Texas wins, but they don't cover the 4 TD spread.

Tenn +12 (2-Dime Play)
Lots of new faces in Tennesse, but they are still Tennessee with a solid defense playing in front of their home crowd of 100,000 people. Oregon has talent all over the place, but the one question mark is what I think will help Tenn get the cover and keep this game within striking distance. Oregon will start a young Darron Thomas in his first road start and he has to do it at Tennessee in front of a sold out crowd. This is night and day compared to what he faced a week ago. Tenn will force a couple of turnovers and will be good enough to slow down the running game of Oregon. Why I like this so much is there will be lots of running. Tenn will be throwing a bruising Tauren Poole and David Oku up the middle at the softest part of the Oregon defense the interior line. I expect them to set up a lot of play action passes and success.

AFA -1 (3.3 Dime OE play)
Really like Air Force as just 22% of the public is on them and the line moved from +1 to -1. This is a team that was really successful last year and although they lost some players they return the talented ones on offense that should continue to be able to pound teams with the run. BYU lost their running back and star QB and seem to not have an identity with a 2 QB system. Jake Heaps seems to be the guy in the near future, but this is the perfect time for Air Force. BYU will struggle facing them this early as they do not have a lot of time to prepare for this style of spread offense with the triple option. Especially since BYU breaks in some new line backers and Air Force is fresh this early and probably have an extra step. Tim Jefferson is coming off 179 passing yards and they gained 479 on the ground a week ago. That will give something for BYU to think of before they try to only stop the run. This is a special game for Air Force and I think the line movement shows that they are going to win it and my research backs that up. Don't forget Air Force is solid on defense and only lost to a TCU team by 3 poitns at home a year ago.

Kent State +17.5 (2.2 Dime Play)
Kent State has an under rated defense and can sneak up on some teams this year. I know they lost 34-7 here a year ago when the spread was 21, but why is the spread now 17? Boston College has a good defense especially in their linebackers and they have a stud at running back in Montel Harris, but Kent state has possible all conference performers at each level with MOnte Simmons at end, Mixon at Linebacker and Lainhart at safety. Both of these teams are going to be running the ball a lot in this game. Kent State returns their star RB Eugene Jarvis who looked like his old self last week when the Kent state team ran the ball 39 times. Look for much of the same here and the same on the BC side with Montel Harris being the answer for BC as they try to decide on a QB. BC also has the look ahead game with Vtech and Notre Dame and probably won't be looking at Kent State as a threat, but this will be closer than many think.

Houston -20 (2.5 Dime LNF)
Houston wants revenge here after being #12 and losing at UTEP a year ago. On offense Houston will do whatever it wants here tonight behind Keenum a heisman candidate. UTEP was able to win with the running game last year with Donald Bruckram, but a couple things to take into consider. Bruckram did not play week 1 so he'll be rusty and not as confident as he had a bruised knee and was carried off the practice field. Also add in Houston getting one of their star linebackers back in Matt Nicholson who is excellent against the rush. Add in UTEP's star QB Vittatoe had offseason shoulder surgery and despite putting up decent numbers he faced a FCS defense in Pine Bluff and he looked out of rhythm at times. It could be his shoulder, but either way he's not the same QB as a year ago when UTEP won against Houston. Houston gets revenge here.

Miss State +2 (4.4 Dime POD)Mullen's offense is now fully installed and we already saw the benefits against Marshall where they won 49-7 in week 1. They split two QB's with different talents and have an above average receiving corp that will give Auburn lots of troubles. Don't get me wrong Cameron Newton appears to be the real deal, but if you remember Mullen recruited him when he was at Florida and knows a lot about the dual threat QB that broke the rushing record for a single game by a QB for Auburn last week. That's not why Auburn doesn't cover it will be their inability to play defense. Add in the significant improvement from Miss State's offense with Chad Bumphis, Brandon HEavens and Leon Berry catchign passes and I'm confident this team is going to shock some viewers. I think Miss State is strong up front and they have some leaders in the linebacking corps that could stop the run of Newton.

Auburn gave up 26 points to Arkansas State. Arkansas State one of the worst teams in the Sun Belt last year only scored more than 26 points three times all of last year against three SUn Belt opponents in Troy Flint, and North Texas. The big problem is in the passing game which is now the Miss State's strength of the passing game. The combo of Tyler Russell and Chris Relf threw for 372 yards against Marshall and completed 20-25 passes. Expect much of the same at home and I expect Cameron Newton to get rattled early in the largest home crowd the Bulldogs will ever have. YOu'll hear plenty of cowbells.

Virginia Tech +105 (4.5 Dimes)
I like the Hokies to really start their run to be in the running for the ACC Championship as well as the National Championship. Beamer has a solid group of guys returning on the offensive side of the ball and the best running back duo in the country arguably in Evans and Williams. Tyrod Taylor is the MVP in this game. He may trail Kellen Moore on the active QB win list in college football 23-26, but he's been in big games like this before and he really grew up a year ago with a trio of receivers in Boykin, Coale Kberls that are under rated. The defense for the Hokies is young but high on talent.. I think there will be points given up no question, but Virginia Tech just has too much on the offense side of the ball and though the Broncos return just about everyone they are going to miss their star CB Kyle Wilson in this game.

ECU +7.5 @ 5dimes (3.5 Dime EB play)
I like this match up for EAst Carolina at home as under dogs despite having just 2 returners to their defense that led the the conference a year ago. The returners are int he secondary including Emanuel Davis an All C-USA performer. This will allow ECU to blitz and play man coverage which will fall into the weakness of Tulsa as Kinne was sacked far too often a year ago. Kinne threw 2 interceptiosn and had a fumble against EAst Carolina a year ago. He has weapons to put up points, but East Carolina is still a defensive minded team with Ruffin McNeill taking over.

The difference....East Carolina starts the Boston College transfer Dominique Davis who is hungry. He's grown up since he last started a game for BC playing in juco. Look for him to have a great day on this suspect Tulsa defense. He's got plenty of options in the spread including the all time Pirate receiver Dominique Davis who caught 83 balls a year ago. This is a new system, but I think Tulsa is the perfect opponent to gain confidence on. East Carolina returns 3 offensive linemen who were starters and are now seniors. I think they have a major advantage up front which is where the games are won. I look for this to be a bit of a shoot out with the Pirates having a chance at home to win the game out right.

Oregon State +13 (4.4 Dime NCAAF POD)
Really like this play. I think the Rodgers brothers are explosive enough to give TCU some serious problems especially on a fast track like Cowboy Stadium.. If you don't know the Rodgers brothers and you should by now watch tonight's game. ORegon State also has a physical line led by Phillip and Linnenkohl. On defense they have a strong unit up front that should stop the running game of TCU in my opinion. DT Stephen Paea is a force and has the speed to disrupt many plays. Oregon State allowed just 114.4 yards per carry and the strength of schedule was a bit higher than TCU. Offensively it'll be the Rodgers brothers against a tough tCU defense but one that does have some question marks which is why I like Oregon State. TCU lost it's leading tackler, two 4 year corner backs, and Jerry Hughes their leading sacker.

Ryan Katz the sophmore QB will be the question mark for Oregon STate, but with weapons like the Rodgers brothers and a solid TE in Joe Halanhuni 35 receptions a year ago 486 yards I think they'll be able to get some points on the board in what will be a relatively low close scoring game. Dalton returns but his confidence may be hurt a bit after an awful showing in the bowl game against Boise State. He faces another tough defense and I think he may throw a pick or two here.

Uconn +3 (3.3 Dime Oddsline Error Play)
So everyone wants you to buy into the hype of the largest crowd +112,000 ever in MIchigans new stadium, but I"m not this is still a very very bad team with a lot of holes and question marks that has gone just 8-16 under Rich Rodriguez. QB? Who will it be.. Rodriguez hasn't said but it's likely Denard Robinson who has the most talent and has been said has worked the hardest int he off season. They have talent at WR, but in my opinion not the accuracy to take advantage vs. the only glaring weakness for Uconn the secondary. Denard Robinson is the best option to runt he spread, but I think he struggles against a very strong front 7 for Uconn that returns 3 veterans at LB in which is the strength of the defense and ironically the key to stop any "option offense." Uconn has experience with it and a better coach in my opinion. This is a team that returns nearly everyone and won at baylor, notre dame, loss by 2 at Cincinnati, 4 at West Virginia and 3 at Pitt. Just in case you didn't know they are undefeated vs. the Big 10... Okay they only played Indiana twice, but Michigan a shell of their once dominating home self only beat Indiana by 3 at home.

Uconn on offense will be able to do what they want on the groudn with Toddman who will be the top RB in the Big East.. unless the USC transfer lives up to his potential. Shoemate who will take on what Toddman's role was last year behind Andre Dixon could be better than Toddman who was better than Dixon. I believe in Zach Frazer after the Notre Dame game a year ago and think he's got the compusure to beat a defense that was shredded in 2009 in Michigan. There have been no answers for the defense and they've moved to a 3-3-5 defense and have even moved their full back Moundrus over to play linebacker. Linebacker is not an easy position to play and I expect Uconn to take advantage despite being in an intimidating environment.

Purdue +10.5 (2.2 Dime OE Play)
There are just too many similarities between these teams to warrant more than a 10 point favorite line for the home team. I think Notre Dame can lose this game. Why are these teams similar..

Both Qb's have limited experience and are both coming off ACL injuries with lots of potential and have weapons in receivers. Notre Dame has Malcolm Floyd and Purdue has Keith Smith the best WR in the Big Ten. To me this the combo of Marve/Smith is better than Crist/Floyd. Both weaknesses for this team is the secondary and both teams have 3 new offensive lineman. However, Notre Dame brand new system and Crist will have a good day but overall the front 7 of Purdue has some depth and experience.

Key to why Purdue stays int his game will bet he best player on defense overall in this game in Ryan Kerrigan (13 sacks a year ago). Look for him to get a couple of hits on Crist who hasn't been hit in practice at all. This will be scary because Kerrigan should dominate against an offensive line that has three newbies for Notre Dame. If they opt to double team that will leave one side of the O line at risk.

MTENN +2.5 (4.4 Dime POD)
I really like the chances for MTSU despite not having their best player in their QB in Dasher. It looks like Kilgore will get the start and I believe he has a strong arm well capable of making the short throws to the WR which will give Minnesota a team that returns just 2 starters from last years team with 1 safety Kim Royston being out for this contest. That means brand new Linebackers and I believe they'll have some trouble stopping MTSU which had one of the better offenses a year ago.

The Gophers offense will struggle enough for MTSU to have this game in hand at home in my opinion. Minnesota only scored 20 ppg and have a new offensive coordinator for the third year in a row. They are missing a lot of offensive talent and the struggles will continue as they were 113th in sacks allowed. They face a MTSU team that is strong up front with a strong pass rush ranked 6th in the nation a year ago and 2nd in tackles for a loss. Bottom line their defensive coordinator Randall Mccray knows this Gophers team as he spent 4 years at Wisconsin. Look for Weber to be under pressure for a good portion of the game. MTSU is a team that has played talented teams a year ago as they beat Maryland and played MIss STate and Clemson. They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non conference games while Minnesota is 1-4.

Alabama -4 (4.5 Dime POD) Under 46 (2-Dime Bonus)
Well these two teams are as even as you get on paper. Both solid offense, solid defenses, solid special teams and solid coaching. Normally in a situation like this you go with the under dog, but I just can't buy into a Texas team that has shown far more problems this year than the Tide. It just seems like that special year for Alabama and I'm a believer in that.

Alabama first off has faced a stronger schedule don't let anyone kid you on that. Particularly their defense has faced a 45th ranked rushing offense while Texas #1 run defense has faced the #74 attack. It's a mirage on the surface because Alabama who is going to run the ball goes up against a very talented front, but just how talented? Texas has been tested by just three decent running teams and those three were not close to what Alabama can do with their strength.

Alabama offense ranked slightly lower than Texas has faced a much much more challenging defense out of the SEC ranked #48 int he nation compared to Texas who has faced #76. And again it's the strength of the Texas offense that I can not take seriously here as they have faced an opponent with a average 76th pass defense. Maybe it is because so many Big 12 teams love to pass that the defense are under rated, but even so Texas has played only two defenses this year that are the caliber of an Alabama. Those two are Nebraska and Oklahoma. Those two games Texas I believe should have and could have easily won the game. I believe Alabama's defense is better than both of those teams and the offense may just be too. Nebraska held Texas to 13 points and sacked McCoy 9 times while Oklahoma held them to 16 points.

Alabama has been tested all season by top defense and this won't be anything new to McElroy and the crew. McElroy is under rated the guy has faced six top 20 pass defenses. I think he can beat Texas under neath throwing to Marquis Maze as the Longhorn secondary full of sophomores will have their eyes on the all world talent in Julio Jones. Alabama has faced six top 27 defenses many in the area that Texas is in. They averaged 24 ppg in all six and when they faced a Kentucky team that was 18th in pass defense they put up 38 points. I can see Alabama scoring around 24 points which should be plenty to win this game.

Alabama has been tested offensively too facing three opponents in the top 22 in offense and a three more in the top 50. Against the three top 22 offenses they held them to 13.67 ppg proving they can play in the big game that includes holding the Gators to 13 points in the SEC title game.

Texas on the other hand has not fared well against good offenses. They faced four top 26 offenses and gave up 24 points on average including 39 to Texas A&M team. There were many QB's that beat Texas all year long making them suspect against the pass. The fear you should have if you are going to back the Longhorns is they have not faced a rushing team as good as Alabama all year long. They have not faced an offensive line as talented as Alabama that is where the difference will be.

As I mentioned above against top offenses and top defenses Alabama seemed to play their best with a +10.33ppg advantage while Texas seemed to play worst scoring 14.9 and giving up 24. Bottom line is Texas won those games, but they have yet to play a team that can play offense and defense well outside Oklahoma but Oklahoma didn't have their best player on the field as he got injured in the first 5 minutes of the game.

What Texas does well is throw those short range passes and I look for McCoy to get picked off a couple times once maybe by the best linebacker in college football in Rolando McClain. He's best at dropping in coverage and should have an opportunity to make big plays here. With Cody at 6'5 and 354 int he middle making Texas unable to run the ball a one dimensional team.

Alabama -4 (4.5 Dime POD) Under 46 (2-Dime Bonus)
Well these two teams are as even as you get on paper. Both solid offense, solid defenses, solid special teams and solid coaching. Normally in a situation like this you go with the under dog, but I just can't buy into a Texas team that has shown far more problems this year than the Tide. It just seems like that special year for Alabama and I'm a believer in that.

Alabama first off has faced a stronger schedule don't let anyone kid you on that. Particularly their defense has faced a 45th ranked rushing offense while Texas #1 run defense has faced the #74 attack. It's a mirage on the surface because Alabama who is going to run the ball goes up against a very talented front, but just how talented? Texas has been tested by just three decent running teams and those three were not close to what Alabama can do with their strength.

Alabama offense ranked slightly lower than Texas has faced a much much more challenging defense out of the SEC ranked #48 int he nation compared to Texas who has faced #76. And again it's the strength of the Texas offense that I can not take seriously here as they have faced an opponent with a average 76th pass defense. Maybe it is because so many Big 12 teams love to pass that the defense are under rated, but even so Texas has played only two defenses this year that are the caliber of an Alabama. Those two are Nebraska and Oklahoma. Those two games Texas I believe should have and could have easily won the game. I believe Alabama's defense is better than both of those teams and the offense may just be too. Nebraska held Texas to 13 points and sacked McCoy 9 times while Oklahoma held them to 16 points.

Alabama has been tested all season by top defense and this won't be anything new to McElroy and the crew. McElroy is under rated the guy has faced six top 20 pass defenses. I think he can beat Texas under neath throwing to Marquis Maze as the Longhorn secondary full of sophomores will have their eyes on the all world talent in Julio Jones. Alabama has faced six top 27 defenses many in the area that Texas is in. They averaged 24 ppg in all six and when they faced a Kentucky team that was 18th in pass defense they put up 38 points. I can see Alabama scoring around 24 points which should be plenty to win this game.

Alabama has been tested offensively too facing three opponents in the top 22 in offense and a three more in the top 50. Against the three top 22 offenses they held them to 13.67 ppg proving they can play in the big game that includes holding the Gators to 13 points in the SEC title game.

Texas on the other hand has not fared well against good offenses. They faced four top 26 offenses and gave up 24 points on average including 39 to Texas A&M team. There were many QB's that beat Texas all year long making them suspect against the pass. The fear you should have if you are going to back the Longhorns is they have not faced a rushing team as good as Alabama all year long. They have not faced an offensive line as talented as Alabama that is where the difference will be.

As I mentioned above against top offenses and top defenses Alabama seemed to play their best with a +10.33ppg advantage while Texas seemed to play worst scoring 14.9 and giving up 24. Bottom line is Texas won those games, but they have yet to play a team that can play offense and defense well outside Oklahoma but Oklahoma didn't have their best player on the field as he got injured in the first 5 minutes of the game.

What Texas does well is throw those short range passes and I look for McCoy to get picked off a couple times once maybe by the best linebacker in college football in Rolando McClain. He's best at dropping in coverage and should have an opportunity to make big plays here. With Cody at 6'5 and 354 int he middle making Texas unable to run the ball a one dimensional team.

Troy +3 4-Dime NCAAF POD
The perception out there is that Central Michigan is better because of the best QB to ever play in the MAC will be wrapping up his career in Dan Lefevour. However, hold up just one minute. The MAC has not fared well in this game Ball State got blasted 45-13 last year and Bowling Green 63-7 the year before. Troy is another conference winner coming out of the Sun Belt so this game should be much closer and in the end I think Troy wins with their offense.

The perception is that this Central MIchigan team has a good defense unlike years past, well that may be true statistically, but are they really better than Troy? A team that played two of the top scoring offenses in the country in Arkansas and Florida. Overall central Michigan faced an average offens ranked 73 while Troy took on an opponent ranked #50. Troy's secondary is terrible don't get me wrong, but they have been tested, and they are significantly under rated in their front 7. That is where you need to be good to contain Mr. Lefevour and I think Boris Lee one of the best linebackers ever to play in the Sun Belt will have a lot to say about how this defense plays. He's joined by outstanding ends in Cameron Sheffield and Brandon Lang and don't forget Bear Woods another linebacker who will be looking to keep LeFevour in check.

Both teams strong special teams and talent that can take it back at any time. The other perception is Troy lost to Bowling Green and Central Mich beat them 24-10. Well that game was tied at 14 going into the 4th before Troy fell 31-17. That was the first game of the year and since then Troy has gone 9-2. That one less game may just serve them well. If you want to get technical in terms of the Sun Belt vs. the MAC we can look at the bowl games this year Middle Tenn beat C-USA Southern Miss 42-32. MAC has been known to get blown out by C-USA and MTSU took care of them as 3.5 point dogs. Troy destroyed MTSU 31-7. Ohio and Bowling Green both out of the MAC lost their bowl games as favorites. If you want to go deeper you can take North Texas a team that Troy beat 50-26 that played right with MAC Ohio in a loss 30-31, and beat MAC Ball State. From those points it appears the Sun Belt is stronger. Add in the fact that Central Michigan will have an interim coach and I think we have a solid play here with Troy. Don't think the coaching situation is that big of a deal? Just go ask Cincinnati if it played a part.

Don't forget just how good this Troy offense is. Theyare ranked #3 overall and although they faced an average 78 total defense they beat them up. Central Michigan's offense is behind Troy, and the talent that they have faced defensively is not much better ranked #64. Overall Troy comes in with the stronger strength of schedule playing opponents with a win % of .480 and an opp-opp win% at .488 while Central Michigan comes in at .442 and .474 respectfully. Look for the passing attack from Levi Brown to be spectacular and for the front 7 of Troy to give LeFevour enough problems up front.

Take Iowa +5.5 (4.4 Dime Play) Take Under 51 (1.5 Dime Play)
Clash number two of the Big 10 vs. the ACC in this years bowl games. The first time it was Wisconsin beating Miami as underdogs. Iowa who is 10-3 vs. teams with a winning record and is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and non-conference games. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as underdogs.

While these two have not played a common opponent this year I have found a couple of connections that should make you feel good about playing the under dog. Iowa beat Wisconsin 20-10 who I mentioned took care of Miami and Miami beat Georgia Tech. Also Iowa beat Penn State who beat LSU who destroyed Georgia Tech in their bowl game last year 38-3. Georgia Tech is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games as a favorite.

To beat Georgia Tech you need good linebackers, lots of discipline and time to prepare. That's exactly what Iowa possesses in this spot here. The only team that had more than a week to get ready for Georgia Tech was Miami and Miami was able to limit the Yellow Jackets to a season low 95 yards. Iowa certainly has a group of linebackers including possibly the best LB in college football in Pat Angerer. Angerer has come up with big games in big moments and was 5th in the nation in tackles. He had 14 against Penn State, 13 against Ohio State, and 16 against Minnesota. I would not be surprised if we see 20 from him tonight.

Now many are saying and feeling that Iowa can not keep up with Georgia Tech, and that's why they lose, well I'm here to tell you Georgia Tech's defense is not as good as it appears. It has benefited from being on the field for long periods of times and weak competition. They have faced three out of conference teams with terrible offensive rankings in Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Miss State. All three games they gave up 30 or more points proving that Iowa's offense should be able to move the chains more than you think especially with their QB Ricky Stanzi who was 9-0 as a starter this year returning from his ankle injury.

Iowa's defense has been the staple of this teams success and this will be the best defense Georgia Tech faces all year. Ranked #10 in total defense and #9 in points allowed Iowa has faced a challenging schedule that has Ohio State and Penn State. Regardless look for a low scoring game.

Take Iowa +5.5 (4.4 Dime Play) Take Under 51 (1.5 Dime Play)
Clash number two of the Big 10 vs. the ACC in this years bowl games. The first time it was Wisconsin beating Miami as underdogs. Iowa who is 10-3 vs. teams with a winning record and is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and non-conference games. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as underdogs.

While these two have not played a common opponent this year I have found a couple of connections that should make you feel good about playing the under dog. Iowa beat Wisconsin 20-10 who I mentioned took care of Miami and Miami beat Georgia Tech. Also Iowa beat Penn State who beat LSU who destroyed Georgia Tech in their bowl game last year 38-3. Georgia Tech is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games as a favorite.

To beat Georgia Tech you need good linebackers, lots of discipline and time to prepare. That's exactly what Iowa possesses in this spot here. The only team that had more than a week to get ready for Georgia Tech was Miami and Miami was able to limit the Yellow Jackets to a season low 95 yards. Iowa certainly has a group of linebackers including possibly the best LB in college football in Pat Angerer. Angerer has come up with big games in big moments and was 5th in the nation in tackles. He had 14 against Penn State, 13 against Ohio State, and 16 against Minnesota. I would not be surprised if we see 20 from him tonight.

Now many are saying and feeling that Iowa can not keep up with Georgia Tech, and that's why they lose, well I'm here to tell you Georgia Tech's defense is not as good as it appears. It has benefited from being on the field for long periods of times and weak competition. They have faced three out of conference teams with terrible offensive rankings in Georgia, Vanderbilt, and Miss State. All three games they gave up 30 or more points proving that Iowa's offense should be able to move the chains more than you think especially with their QB Ricky Stanzi who was 9-0 as a starter this year returning from his ankle injury.

Iowa's defense has been the staple of this teams success and this will be the best defense Georgia Tech faces all year. Ranked #10 in total defense and #9 in points allowed Iowa has faced a challenging schedule that has Ohio State and Penn State. Regardless look for a low scoring game.

TCU -7 (4.5 DIME NCAAF POD)
Ok there is no doubt in my mind that TCU plays in a far superior conference. Let's just look at the bowl games for instance. BYU, Air Force, Utah, and Wyoming all under dogs in their bowl games and won out right making the Mountain West Conference a solid conference. If TCU can close it out and win here tonight that would make them 5-0 in bowl games. Wyoming an 11 point under dog against a WAC Fresno State team won by a TD to open the bowl season. Utah and BYU took care of two Pac-10 teams and Air Force beat and flat out dominated the best offensive team in the country statistically. TCU really wants to join that club here tonight. Add in the fact that the other WAC team playing in a bowl game lost to SMU by 35 points as 11 point favorites. That's right Nevada the team that challenged Boise a little lost by 35 points and they were big favorites.

Of course we can't base our opinion solely on that information, but Boise who is known for their offense this year with Kellen Moore throwing for the highest passing efficiency in the nation and 39 TD and 3 INT has faced nobody defensively. They faced three teams with a total defense inside the top 70 and that was teams ranked 65th, 70, and 37. Oregon in game 1 held them to 19 points and lost, but TCU is much better than Oregon and from what we already saw from the PAC-10 we can say the MW Conference may just be better. Add in the fact that Moore's best option Austin Pettis was questionable for the game because of an ankle injury. He'll give it a go, but clearly won't be 100% which is a big deal against a solid defense. Pettis caught 14TD's this year.

These two teams met last year and while TCU only won by 1 point the story here is that they out gained Boise 472 to 250 yards. Andy Dalton threw an interception for TCU something I do not think will happen this year and his overall play is much more threatening than it was a year ago. Dalton has double the number of TD passes than a year ago with 22 and has thrown just 5 interceptions. He is completing 8.9 yards per pass and that's nearly 2 yards more than a year ago while he's rushing +0.7 ypc more than a year ago. Boise State has a solid defense, but they are vulnerable to the running game something TCU ranked #5 in the nation thrives on. Fresno State's Ryan Mathews gashed the Broncos front seven and the only other strong running game was Nevada a team that ran for 242 yards and Vai Taua having 160 with 6.7 yards per carry. TCU has faced defenses close to what Boise does and they have come out successful. They have faced 5 strong defenses ranked 19,29,11,20, and 54 respectfully. In those games they averaged 31.4 ppg and gave up 15.2ppg. TCU carries the #1 total defense and is stout on both sides passing and rushing. They held Boise to 1.6 yard per carry a year ago and should be able to do that again making Moore have to beat them. TCU shut down some good passing attacks this year including BYU 38-7 and Utah 55-28 both those teams beat up on Pac-10 teams in their bowl games.

Bottom line TCU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowls and although a TD seems like a lot it really isn't when you have a defense as good as this. TCU DE Jerry Hughes will have a huge game and will disrupt Kellen Moore. Moore may have only been sacked 5 times this year, but it was against some terrible pass defenses even Oregon the best total defense that Boise State has played had a #46 pass defense. TCU flies in at #64.

Mich State +9 (3.5 Dime LNF play)
Got to go with Michigan State catching points here. Granted we have the #2 pass offense going up against #104 pass defense in Michigan State, but they can still stop some of the top passing games in the nation if they are one dimensional which is what Texas Tech is ranked #115 in rushing the ball. they faced a few teams like that including Notre Dame who has a better running game than Texas Tech and Michigan State should have won that game if it weren't for a dropped pass, but they still managed to lose just by 3 (30-33) @ Notre Dame.

They faced other one dimensional teams with similar defenses including Northwestern who they beat 24-14. Northwestern just gave their opponent an SEC team everything they could have and Penn State beat LSU, while Ohio State took down Oregon in the Rose Bowl proving that just maybe the Big 10 is a solid conference all around. I think the Big 10 continues to get a bad wrap and add in the fact that Tx Tech will be without their head coach with all the controversies as Mike Leach will be fired and this game suddenly is not the most important thing for the football team. Look what happened to Cinci last night playing uninspiring football without their coach.

Texas Tech has played a few teams like Michigan State and they have all been close games. Actually Michigan State has played in seven games decided by eight or fewer points so I feel this one will be close too with Kirk Cousins getting many yards through the air. Texas Tech is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Big 10 and 0-4 in their last 4 bowl games ATS.

Arkansas -7 *3.3 Dime NCAAF PLAY
Going with the Razorback here and Petrino to take care of Conference USA East Carolina. ECU is a solid team and they play solid ball and have a challenging schedule, but I just think they will be outmatched in this one. Basically because their most glaring weakness is Arkansas' strength. Pass defense, ECU ranks 110th in the nation while Arkansas ranks 10th in the nation.

Ryan Mallet should have a field day throwing to his receivers Greg Childs and DJ Williams. Arkansas has a blend of size, and speed. Arkansas got their #10 ranking against some of the top pass defense teams in the nation. They only faced two teams outside the top 100 in pass defense and ECU will be the third. The results was not so good for the first two including Texas A&M as Arkansas rattled off 56 points and then 47 points against Troy. Really think Arkansas will put up close to 30 and ECU just does not have the offense to keep up.

Miss -3 (4.4 Dime NCAAF POD)
This may just be the best game of the day in the Cotton Bowl between two teams with big pre-season hopes that never came together. Bottom line I saw this Ole Miss team play against Alabama and their defense was very solid. Unfortunately the offense came up with 3 points and constantly gave Alabama short field position in a 22-3 loss. So the talent is there and Oklahoma State just does not have the talent on the defensive side that Alabama has. Actually Oklahoma State has had problems defending the pass ranked #94 in the nation.

The key to the Rebels is Snead when he's not giving the ball away and he's making plays so is Miss. He has faced an extremely challenging schedule this year with six top 30 pass defenses this year. When he faced the bottom three 105, 120, 118 Miss averaged 41ppg in those games and they won all three of those games. On the other side Oklahoma State has faced many good offenses, but this may just be the most balanced attack with Snead and half back McCluster both can hurt Oklahoma State here.

Oklahoma State is a one dimensional offense with their All-American WR Dez Bryant as was clear in their finale against a good defense in Oklahoma as they managed just 62 passing yards in a 0-27 loss. Oklahoma actually reminds me a bit of Miss and I think we could see Oklahoma get shut down by Mississippi's #19 ranked pass defense. Miss is 7-0 in their last 7 non-conference and Oklahoma State is 0-5 in their last 5 as an underdog. Who will you hear all day long? Dexter McCluster. He can take this game over and probably will.

Take USF -7 +103 @ 5DIMES (3.5 Dime Play).
I know the disadvantages in this game for South Florida. They are pretty evident going on the road and the motivation can not be as high as it is for Northern Illinois here and that is why this game will be closer than many think. BUT, Overall I think the 7 points is still too little. I believe South Florida takes advantage here they have huge advantages in speed and athleticism and they have faced a strength of schedule that's 120 points higher than Northern Illinois. Their opponents and opp-opp win% are more than .100 points higher.

Northern Illinois has gotten it done with their running game and defense, but you can not be one dimensional against a solid defense like South Florida. South Florida is loaded with talent with next-level DE Jason Pierre-Paul and George Selvie. Tackles Aaron Harris and Terrell McClain have the size to stop the up the middle runs that Spann and Brown will try to bring. Overall Northern Illinois offense is average at 79 in total yards in the country. They have faced a weak schedule with an average opp defense at #70. When they played top defenses (3X) They lost by 14, 7, and 8 and this may just be the most talented defense they'll face all year long.

South Florida on the other hand when they faced weak offenses they were 3-1 winning by 12, 14, and 22.

Ohio State +4 (3.5 Dime play)
I've been on the side of the PAC-10 once this bowl season and although it was a win I was very fortunate as UCLA got the pick six to seal the deal. I refuse to back them again even if it's Oregon who had a challenging non-conference schedule with Utah and Boise State on the schedule.

Bottom line this is the best defense Oregon will face all year long and I don't see them as more than a FG favorite. The last time a PAC10 team other than Washington or USC has wont he Rose Bowl was 1987. I just think Ohio State is too disciplined on defense to allow Massoli and LaMichael James to just handle them. Ohio State has faced some pretty darn solid running teams ranked #25, #18, #4, and #15 in those games they gave up a total of 50 points that's an average of 12.5 ppg. Some of these teams have better defenses than Oregon including possibly Wisconsin who they beat 31-13.

I just don't think Oregon has enough in the passing game to make Ohio State think about it. That's where they are vulnerable if at all. It's how Purdue beat them although Ohio State gave the ball away 5 times and was the reason they lost that game. Oregon has played two solid defenses that can even be discussed with Ohio State and that's Boise State who held Oregon to 9 points and Utah held them to 31 points. Ohio State is 6-1-1 in their last 8 vs. the PAC-10 with that loss coming against USC this year. They are 4-1 in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 overall bowl games. Terrelle Pryor may just surprise some people here despite the bumb knee and I think Massoli will be average at best.

2.5 Dime Bonus - Take West Virginia -2.5
I really can not stay away from the other Bowl Game at 1pm and that is the Gator bowl. Despite West Virginia's struggles against the ACC in the past 3-11 ATS in their last 14 and Bowl Games 2-9 ATS in their last 7 I think they have finally met their match in FSU.

Florida State has one of the worst defenses of a bowl team that I have seen all year. multiple times i have seen this team just look awful. They lost at home to Big East South Florida and South Florida is one of the worst teams on the road. South Florida did beat West Virginia in a game I had South Florida as a POD. That was a situational spot on a Friday night prime time game that they did it on so I don't look into that as much when comparing these two teams. What I do look at is how FSU fared against a team that could run the ball and against Clemson and Georgia Tech both solid running teams that could not pass the ball all that well just like West Virginia it was their defense getting rolled over. Against Clemson they gave up 40 points and lost by 16 and against Georgia Tech they gave up 49 and scored 44. Now West Virginia's defense is probably somewhere between Clemson and Georgia Tech.

I think West Virginia finally wants to win this game, and I believe they will over a Florida State team that is getting more credit than they deserve partially due to Bobby Bowden coaching his last game. I don't buy all that crap in the end it's how the teams play on the field. West Virginia has had a challenging schedule and they came close to beating the Bearcats and handed a very good Pitt team a loss. This is the worst defense West Virginia will face all year and Noel Devine should go off and have a huge game.

LSU +3 -120 buy 1/2 point 4.4-Dime PLAY
The difficulty in the schedule for LSU is much more challenging than what Penn State saw as they had out of conference games against Temple, Akron, Syracuse and Eastern Illinois. Yikes, that spells over rated to me. This will be the best defense they have faced all year except for maybe Ohio State who is almost a carbon copy of LSU in my opinion, but a carbon copy playing in the strongest conference in the nation. LSU ranked #26 in defense is known for their defense and they have gone up against an average #56 offensive attack. The worry here and why they are not favored is Penn State's strong defense ranked #9 overall vs. LSU's poor offense #107. Well I am here to tell you not to worry. Look what Ohio State did scored 31 points on the road. LSU has been one of the better teams in bowl games over recent years and even better when they leave their conference for non-conference play. As they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowls and 4-1 in their last 5 as under dogs in bowls. They are also 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games.

I just can't trust a Penn State team to shut down LSU when they have faced an average defense ranked 81 in the country. I believe LSU will be able to move the ball and I believe the LSU defense will be able to hold Clark and Royster in check for most of the afternoon. Also don't count on Penn State's run defense to shut down LSU as LSU ran for 133 against Alabama. Their issues have been running for losses all year long and I think a lot of that has been corrected in the time off.

The difference in this game will be special teams and turnover margin. LSU ranked #21 in turnover margin ahead of Penn State and features one of the best special team games. LSU Trindon Holliday is the nation's #1 ranked punt returner at 18.64 ypc and penn State's return game is abysmal at best. This will be the difference in what should be a very close game. In the end I think the game comes down to a field goal which is why I recommend paying the 10 cents to get this line at +3. If you want the value is there on the money line as well.

Take Northwestern +8.5 (4.5 Dime NCAAF POD)
Got to go with Northwestern in this situation against Auburn. Auburn has not faced anyone this year with a good passing game except Arkansas ranked #10 and what happened? It was a 23-44 loss and Arkansas does not have the defense that Northwestern has. Kafka was solid down the stretch throwing for over 300 yards against Illinois and Wisconsin. A win over Wisconsin look pretty impressive considering what Wisconsin did to Miami in their bowl game.

Northwestern has the #28 ranked passing game and they have faced a solid defense out of the PAC-10. Auburn does have a #29 pass defense, but note they have faced an average 81st passing offense. The SEC is loaded with run first teams and that is why their run defense at #80 is not impressive either. Auburn is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 as a favorite while Northwestern is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as under dogs. Auburn will be able to run the ball, but Northwestern is extremely under rated in my opinion in terms of their defense. They have faced two teams that can run the ball in the category of an Auburn and that was against Wisconsin and Illinois in their last two games each featuring solid running games at #15 and #18 while Auburn comes in at #13. Northwestern won both of those games out right, and while Illinois defense is defintely worse than Auburn, Wisconsin's is definitely better than Auburns. I think this will be a very close game than many expect and in the end I think Northwestern will have an opportunity to win the game outright.

Player to watch is Northwestern DE Corey Wooton he's a first round prospect. He had a knee injury but still has a world of talent. Look for him to really disrupt Auburn and what they try to do here on Friday.

Tennessee +6 (4.5 Dime NCAAF POD) Tenn +200 (1-Dime Bonus)
I really can't argue that Virginia Tech is not a good team they are excellent, but a closer look at their defense reveals that they may not be as dominant as many think. They really only played three good passing teams and two of them picked Vtech apart including NC State's Russell Wilson, and Duke's Thaddeus Lewis. Johnathan Crompton grew up this year and ended his season in spectacular fashion. Crompton one of the most challenging schedules for any passer had to go up against both Florida and Alabama. Overall he faced a 33rd ranked pass defense. Tennessee however is still known more for its defense despite having a very balanced offense attack.

Tenn's defense ranked #19 overall in total defense and can be compared without getting a lugh to the three top defense that Virginia Tech has seen in UNC, (L17-20), Nebraska (W "miracle" 16-15) and Alabama (L24-34). In fact Tenn played right with Alabama on the road and should have won if their FG kicker could get enough height on his kicks. I really think Tennessee can shut down Virginia Tech. Give Monte Kiffin the defensive coordinator a month to prepare for a game and he will come up big. Tennessee came up with their biggest games against the top in the SEC as they played Alabama and Florida extremely well and blew out Georgia on the road where Crompton had his coming out party. We did not mention Vtech's run defense that is ranked 54th, but has only seen an average rushing attack ranked 72. Tennessee features a very strong running game with Montario Hardesty. Hardesty ran for 1,306 yards and 12 TD's. When he runs for more than 100 yards Tenn is 5-0 this year. When he doesn't they are 2-5. I believe he will have every opportunity to run for 100+

Virginia Tech is 1-4 in their last 5 bowl games as a favorite and really should not be favored by almost a TD in this game playing an SEC team. We saw what happened when top ACC teams played mid SEC teams when Georgia Tech and Clemson lost to Georgia and South Carolina. Judging by what Georgia did in their bowl game and what Tenn did to them on the road I'd say Tenn is flying under the radar here still!

Oklahoma -10 (5-Dime NCAAF POD)
Biggest play of this bowl season thus far comes on Oklahoma. I just love this play and Oklahoma is big favorites. I don't often play big favorites, but in this situation I can't help but really like them. I'll tell you why. IF you have been paying attention you have seen me talking trash about the Pac-10! Tonight was just another win fading the PAC-10 when Nebraska destroyed Arizona in an easy 33-0 win. That was Nebraska. Stanford actually lost to Arizona who got beat by Nebraska badly, so who is the better team? I just do not think this is a good match up for Stanford. Against teams with top 27 running defenses they are 1-3 and those are against Pac-10 defenses which up until this point can't really be taken seriously. Even Temple ran through and dominated the UCLA defense. Stanford is going to have his hands filled with Oklahoma and their #8 ranked run defense.

Oklahoma has faced two top 29 running offenses and the result was a 27-0 win over Oklahoma State who carries the #22 running offense. Then against Texas A&M who also carries a good passing game they won 65-10. Yikes! This does not look good for Stanford who is going to rely to much on Toby Gerhart to run the ball especially since their QB Andrew Luck will miss this game. Their back up is more than competent but he'll go up against a tested Oklahoma secondary that rankes #22.

Oklahoma should be feasting on Stanford's defense and I don't think they'll be stopped all day long. Oklahoma has faced 4 pass defenses in the category that Stanford falls into which is BAD. Stanford ranked 105 in the country in pass defense and Oklahoma has faced 4 teams close to that with ranks of 94, 107, 95, and 102. The results were a combined score of 179-40. Neither one of those games was close, and even though Sam Bradford won't play here Landry Jones has enough experience and has proven that when he plays a poor defense he makes the plays to win in blowouts which is exactly what I think this will be. It's really too bad for a Stanford team that looked really good at times this year.

Oklahoma will continue it's dominance against the Pac -10 as they are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 and they will fix their struggles int he bowl games that have been their last 6 going 1-5 ATS. This is a low key bowl for Oklahoma and the competition is not nearly what it normally is. Stanford is a nice team with some nice coaches, but they are out of the league here and just like every other Pac-10 team they will be embarrassed I think. Stanford 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.

AFA +5 3.3 Dime EBS play
Got to go with Air Force here. They won last years regular season battle 31-28, and then lost in this very Bowl game when Houston had revenge. The score of that game 34-28 still Air Force right in the game. They play Houston well as they have the #1 pass defense going up against the #1 pass offense. Granted they really are not as good as that because they run the ball so much, and even BYU passed for 370 yards, but BYU is better than Houston anyway. Strength of schedule believe it or not is on Air Forces side as their opponents have a .519 winning percentage and Houston's has a .451. Houston looked awful many times this year and especially against team that could run the ball like Airforce does #3 in the nation. Houston is ranked #111 int he nation in run defense and I look for AirForce to exploit that and get revenge from their loss in this bowl game a year ago. Air Force has faced 4 teams with bad run defenses and they are 4-0. Those 4 teams had run defenses of 113, 85, 83, and 93. The results were all wins by a combined score of 131-44. Granted this is Houston, but I give Air force an excellent shot at winning this game and I'll make it a small play here.

Take Nebraska -2.5 (3.3 Dime play)
I'll continue to fade the Pac-10 this year it has worked well for us with the exception of Boston College against USC. Yesterday I backed a Pac-10 team and we nearly got burned. It was a pick six that got us the cover and we are very fortunate for that as UCLA won 30-21 over Temple. Arizona is one of the top PAC-10 teams, but they are going to face arguably the best defense they have faced all year long. I just can not go against Nebraska and what I saw from them when they shut down a wild Texas offense.

The best player in the nation will be on the side of the Huskers in Ndamukong Suh. He is athletic and aggressive to get to the passer and drop even in coverage. He had one of the more dominating performances you will ever see in a title game. The only reason I do not have this as a POD is because of Nebraska coming off the Big 12 title game in a loss. Usually teams slip up in the bowl games, but I'd expect that much more from a team that wins because of their offense. This is a defensive team and a proud one at that and they will be ready. This will be by far the best defense Nick Foles and Arizona will face all year. The next closest was Iowa out of the Big Ten and they lost 17-27. Here against a top defense that has to play in conference that features top offensive clubs like Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Missouri and more. This team is tested and will be ready for Arizona's balanced offense.

All you need to know about the PAC-10 is that UCLA and USC are the only two to win their bowl games. UCLA got lucky and USC faced a Boston College team that has no offense. Arizona might be one of the more balanced and best offensive teams in the Pac-10 but you may not know it on Wednesday night. It should be an excellent game and give all more of an opportunity to see the nation's best player Suh.

Idaho -1 (4.4 Dime NCAAF POD)
Yes, Idaho's defense on paper looks just awful, but when they played one dimensional teams like Bowling Green they won, including a 34-16 win over San Diego State a team with identical statistical rankings to Bowling Green. They also beat a MAC team in Northern Illinois 34-31 and NILL has one of the best defenses out of the MAC and plays in the better division of the MAC. Bowling Green did not face them this year.

I believe the WAC is slightly stronger than the MAC. You've got Fresno, Nevada, Boise and more. Actually Bowling Green actually faced Boise State and it was at home in a pathetic attempt as they lost 14-49 with -247 yards. Idaho played at Boise two games ago and although they lost 25-63 they out gained Boise by 56 yards. They will have to play on the blue turf again here today. I just trust a team that is used to playing on the blue turf over a team that's not. Although Idaho has such a hate for Boise that they will not occupy the home team locker room.

The best player in this game belongs on the side of Idaho and he may not be your traditional offensive player, but it's Guard Mike Iupati. He's 6-6 and 330 pounds and should go in the first round of the draft. Just watch this guy as Idaho beats up a 103rd ranked rush defense here today. Idaho has the #10 offense and maybe their defense lacks a bit, but Bowling Green can't compete here with a balanced offensive team in Idaho. Bowling Green can pass all they want with Tyler Sheehan and should rack up some good yards throwing to Mr. Barnes, but in the end there is plenty of tape out there on how to stop this passing game and with no thoughts of running the ball they will likely get stopped in the red zone a few times and have to settle for fieldgoals which is what will win this game.

Take Wisconsin +4 (4-Dime POD)
This line will continue to climb today and I'll take it at +4 where it is at many books and will be at the majority of them here tonight. Wisconsin is the exact team that has given Miami troubles all year long. Wisconsin has had more rushing yards with their stand out RB John Clay than every team they have faced this year. Miami also a solid rushing team to go with a solid rushing defense has been out rushed in three games. They just do not play the power game run and stop the run as well as Wisconsin. Both have similar strength of schedules so the stats can be taken seriously. In the three games that Miami was out gained they won two of them, but those two wins were by 1 point each and the loss to Virginia Tech was by 24 points. This Miami teams plays best when the running game is working and they should have a lot of trouble getting it going here today against the #8 ranked team against the run.

Although Miami is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 bowl games and Wisconsin got torched a year ago in this Champs Sports Bowl by another Florida ACC team in Florida State I believe they will be ready this time around. This is a Wisconsin team that was a couple of plays or games away from playing on New Years. In their games against top flight passing teams they played extremely well going 3-1 and the loss came by just 2 points to Northwestern a solid team that knocked off Iowa. Even though they lost it was still not by what they are given here today which is 4 points. Wisconsin is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an under dog while Miami is 10-24-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a favorite including 2-11 ATS as a favorite between 3.5-10 points.

In Miami's three losses QB Jacoby Harris struggled big time often forcing too many passes. Harris is a pocket passer despite having the speed to move around. Teams that can get to him have forced him to make mistakes and that included 4 against UNC, 3 against Clemson, and 1 against Virginia Tech. Wisconsin has that type of defense and has been tested by some solid passing games out of the Big Ten. They have a very solid pass rush with O'Brien Schofield and the fact that Miami will be with out their 6-7 tackle Jason Fox will make this a huge advantage for Wisconsin and probably the biggest reason why I'm not backing Miami here at all. Look for Wisconsin to put Schofield in position all day to make plays for the Badgers. I believe Wisconsin plays with the lead for most of the night in what will be a close game, but Miami should have an opportunity to win the game in the 4th, but if they do it will only be by a FG.

Take UCLA -4 (3.5 Dime Play)
I can't help but not buy into the hype of a Temple team that did not impress me against OHIO when it was their biggest game of the season the team crumbled to Ohio. Temple after all started the season with a loss to D1-AA Villanova and then scored just 6 points against Penn State. I'll tell you exactly why that has some kind of relevancy as neither one of these teams have a similar opponent and both are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. However, both teams have faced Big10 opponents in Kansas State and Penn State. Both Kstate and Pstate have identical strengh of schedules at .493. UCLA beat Kansas Sate 23-9, and Temple lost to Penn state 31-6. To me Temples defense is over rated and UCLA's defense is under appreciated because their offense is just so bad. Kansas State is or appears to be an exact copy of what Temple is in the sense of pure ratings. Kansas State 81, 105, 25 and 87 offensive ranks (total, pass, run, scoring) While Temple 89, 112, 23, &36. Now Temple's strength of schedule of .417 is miles behind Kansas State's .493. UCLA shut down that offense because it was one dimensional and I think they will do this again here today.

If you are not convinced yet know that against one dimensional offenses UCLA has given up just 17.2ppg. I believe they can shut down Temple despite Temple getting their talented RB Bernard Pierce. It just won't be enough with North Carolina having 6 All -PAC10 defenders and have NFL talent sprinkled in each part of the defense. The front line features DT Briant Price, LB Reggie Carter, and stand out CB Alterraun Verner including FS Rahim Moore. The talent is there and while UCLA was the last team in for the bowl games and they have to travel east I still think they have much more to play for here than many feel. This was just Rick Neuheisel's second season and although more was expected they are still in a bowl game after 4 wins last year. Their QB Kevin Prince is a redshirt freshmen who has looked solid at times and is compared to be the second coming of Cade McNown. The passing offense ranked 52nd and a running game ranked 97th which is not as bad as it appears since playing a average 48th ranked rush defense. The strength of UCLA's offense (pass game) matches up against the weakness of Temples D in their secondary. Temple does not have the passing game to make any kind of a come back especially considering UCLA has a shut down secondary. Look for UCLA playmakers Johnathan Franklin and WR Nelson Rosario to get their names called early and often.

Georgia -6.5 4-Dime NCAAF POD
I looked for reasons to take Texas A&M I really did, but I could not really find any. Sure Jerrod Johnson is an incredible athlete and has been nasty all year long, but I think Georgia has the balanced defense to stop the running game and force Johnson to become a pocket passer. That is something both Kansas State and Oklahoma were able to do. In my opinion this will be the 3rd best defense Texas A&M will see all year long. Georgia ranked #31 overall is very balanced on both sides against the run and pass.

The biggest difference in this game is the misconception that Georgia's offense is average which it is not. They have faced an average defense ranked #38 in total defense and you would have a hard time finding anyone that faced a stronger schedule. This will be the 10th bowl team that Georgia has played this year. Their strength of schedule is miles from what Texas A&M had to face. They faced an opp with a .576 win% while Texas A&M faced .452. The only time Georgia faced a defense that was ranked close to what Texas A&M was @ Arkansas and they put up 52 points. That was the same Arkansas team that held Texas A&m to 19 points on the road in a 47-19 win. There it is Georgia went on the road and beat up on Arkansas and A&M at home lost to Arkansas 19-47. Georgia has a much better defense and you could even say they have a more balanced offense than what Arkansas had.

The Key to the game here is protection. Georgia will have their hands full against Von Miller the nations leader in sacks. However, he had 11 of his 17 sacks against awful teams, New Mexico, Utah State, UAB, Colorado, and Iowa State. Georgia led the SEC in sacks allowed so I'm thinking Miller won't be a problem. The other key is turnovers. Georgia does not force them and it's the reason they are 119th in turnover margin. If they protect the ball they should win this game by more than a TD. Luckily Texas A&M is 66th in turnover margin and does not really force takeaways.

Kentucky +7 buy hook -120 4.4 dimes + Kentucky +218 1 dime bonus
I am on Kentucky here and it's not just because I am a big supporter of the SEC, because Clemson definitely has the superior talent here. It's more because Rich Brooks the Kentucky coach. Even at the age of 68 he continues to prove that he's one of the better coaches. Kentucky won their last three bowl games and I think they will win this game as an underdog which is why I give you the money line bonus.

Kentucky is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games proving that the SEC is superior and a team like Kentucky who does not get much love in conference play is one of the better teams in college football. Getting points here I feel confident. Randall Cobb is the best player on the field yes that is a bold statement considering CJ Spiller is on the field, but Cobb is the MVP here and I think he will get it done for Kentucky against a Clemson run defense that has been very suspect all year long ranked #69 in the nation against the run. Kentucky's offensive line is one of the bigger lines Clemson will see all year long as they average more than 300lbs up front. Derrick Locke the HB will also cut through Clemson's defense as well. Kentucky played a poor run defensive Auburn, and that team statistically is very similar to Clemson except Auburn has a better offense and Kentucky marched into Auburn and won 21-14 for the first time since 1966. Brooks also had Kentucky beat Georgia at Georgia for the first time since 1977 so this Kentucky team is one of the better teams they have had in some time.

Clemson on the other hand does not play in bowl games well actually they lost in 2006 as favorites to this Kentucky team by 6 points. Clemson is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. SEC and actually played South Carolina a team Kentucky lost by just 2 points on the road while Clemson got crushed on the road 17-34 and were -128 yards while Kentucky was -1 yard. Clemson is 0-4 in their last 4 bowl games ATS and 0-5 in their last 5 bowl games as a favorite. CJ Spiller will light it up again here, but in the end it won't matter as Kentucky's defense is better than many give credit.

BC +7 (3-Dime Play)
Based on what we have seen from the Pac-10 vs. the MWC I can't help but take another non-conference team over a Pac-10 team especially a USC team and what they showed us down the stretch. USC also likely without their star RB Joe Mcknight here today. USC will have to face a solid rushing defense ranked #16 in the nation anyway.

Common opponent was Notre Dame while Boston College lost @ Notre Dame by 4, USC won by 7. I really don't put too much weight into that loss for BC if anything it showed their defense is better than USC's and their offense put them in terrible position all day as their 25 year old 1st year QB threw 5 INTS vs. Notre Dame. I expect a solid running game from BC in a low scoring game.

Boston College 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as a dog and they are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 as a dog overall. Very proud team not picked to go far, but will likely give it 100% here today. USC had dreams of going to the Rose Bowl or even a National Championship. The Emerald Bowl does not give them much motivation to play well here today in my opinion.

Take UNC +3 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
I'm going with the Tarheels here as they face a team off a huge emotional loss in the Big East Championship. Pitt just could not hold on to their 3 TD lead over Cinn in that game and I do expect a carry over into this game where they will have to face off against the best defense they have faced all year long. The closest resemblance of a defense as good as UNC that Pitt faced was West Virginia who still is miles away from what this team is and they lost to them 16-19.

I believe Dion Lewis will be bottled up all day as UNC has all stars all over the field and they are ranked #9 nationally against the run. They have NFL type players in DT Marvin Austin, DE Robert Quinn, and linebackers Quan Slurdivant and Bruce Carter who can close on Lewis in a hurry. The 5-8 195lb runner is going to have issues here on Saturday and we will take advantage.

Granted Pitt has a distinct advantage on the other side of the ball, but as we know defense wins championships and with UNC getting points I will take it in that situation especially since Pitt really does not have a distinct advantage here and add in the fact that UNC has faced a stronger schedule by far in my rankings. Besides UNC's offense is not as bad as many are making it out to be they have two talented RB's and in their last three games they averaged 30.3ppg and that was against three solid defense ranked 57, 23 and 25th in total defense so yes I am impressed.

Two common opponents between these two teams as both played UCONN and NC State. While the outcomes were the same we can find something very different. First Uconn both teams won in close games. UNC played Uconn early in the season and won 12-10, but that was a very different offense and defense and they still out gained them by 76 yards. Pitt got a win against UCONN but it was at home while UNC played them on the road. They won 24-21 but out gained them by 186 yards. Now here is where the difference is and why I think the ACC is better than the Big East. @NC State Pitt lost by a TD and were out gained by 230 yards. This to a team that is not going bowling and one of the worst in the ACC. Granted UNC also lost to this team, but in the last game of the season and that is only making this team hungrier. It was on NC State's Sr. day and despite losing they out gained them by +146 yards. So that's 376 yards separating Pitt and UNC. I really expect a dominant day from UNC's front 7 and hey that secondary isn't bad either ranking 14th overall. Look for a low scoring game, but for UNC's defense to be a difference maker.

Marshall +3 - 3.5 Dime NCAAF POD Runner UP
Marshall has had the stronger schedule and stronger oponent win% as well as a stronger opp-opp win%. Judging by what conference USA already did with SMU just taking care of business to Nevada another team off a heartbreaking conference championship loss I'd say I like my chances with Marshall tomorrow.

Granted Ohio may have some extra motivation not ever winning a Bowl game before, but I still do not care. This defense of Marshall's is under rated and they have faced a stronger opponent than Ohio has in terms of the offenses they have faced. The weakness of Ohio's defense which is the running defense is the strength of the Marshall running game as they get a healthy Darius Marshall back. Marshall had solid games against some of the steady run defenses. During a four-week stretch, he went for 109, 186, 203, 141 against teams like Virginia Tech and East Carolina.

On the other side of the ball Ohio has been one of my favorite teams to bet on and Frank Solich is a solid coach that gets the most out of his players, but finally the best won't be good enough. They came off a heart breaking loss to Central Mich in the MAC title game and I think they won't be up for this one as much despite wanting the schools first ever bowl win. Marshall has been here before and I just have too much respect for conference USA. These two have faced each other many times in the past as Marshall used to be a member of Conference USA.

These two teams are pretty evenly matched and in that situation I like to bet on the stronger conference opponent. These two had one similar game and that was Bowling Green. Marshall was -47 yards to Bowling Green but won the game 17-10 while Ohio was -55 yards and won 44-37 and -55 yards. Both teams won, but you could tell that Ohio's defense really is on another level compared to Marshall. Darius Marshall ran for 186 yards in that game and I think he'll have a similar game here on Saturday. Often times I have seen Ohio's defensive line break against good running teams.

Marshall's defense has played three similar opponents in terms of offensive rankings. The rest of the teams they have faced all have better offensive rankings. While they went 1-2 straight up in those games they were all close games. They L to UCF 20-21, (UCF better defense than OHIO), Won @ Tulane 31-10, and lost at East Carolina 17-21 who also have a better defense than Ohio.

SMU +13 BODOG 3.3 DIME PLAY + .7DIMES ON SMU +360
Well some of you may be surprised, but taking under dogs has never scared me. Hope you all have a great holiday and with not much else going on here on the eve of Christmas the Hawaii Bowl should be on everyone's TV. Tonight SMU has all the motivational advantage against the WAC team.

First of all we can talk this match up comes down to two things. SMU's suspect run defense vs. Nevada's #1 running game, and Nevada's suspect #119 pass defense vs. SMU's #28 passing attack. Well along with those two things I also like SMU to have a bit of a motivational and emotional advantage which is more of a big deal than you realize. Nevada may come out a little flat because of the crushing loss to Boise in the WAC title game. They made that game closer than it really was at 44-33. Now SMU comes in without the nerves as they haven't been to a bowl game in 25 years, but enter June Jones the former Hawaii coach and in his second year this team is going bowling and ironically back to the place where June Jones used to play Nevada, Hawaii. I just believe SMU is going to come out wiht an intensity like no other in this game. While their rank says they are #100 in rushing game since Kyle Padron took over at QB it has really opened up the game and they do feature a 100 yard rusher in Shawnbrey McNeal.

Why can SMU stop the run? Well they really can't let's be honest here Nevada is going to runt he ball 90% of the time and are #1 in rush defense, but if they can make some opportunistic stops they will be right in the thick of things and that is what this defense has done all year. This rush defense is a little better than many are giving them credit for they are ranked #88 but faced a 61 rushing attack while Nevada #1 in rush offense has only faced an average 87th ranked opponent. Okay so there is one team that SMU played that can be compared to this game and that was Navy. Now Navy #4 in rushing the ball has a better defense than what Nevada has and in that game SMU lost in OT 35-38. Also note that Nevada's three headed monster rushing attack featuring three 1,000 rushers is going to be without one in monster Lippincott who is out for this game. The key for SMU is get their passing game going against Nevada and get out to a lead which shouldn't be a problem considering....

Nevada has not fared well against talented passing games and with Padron going to Sanders the all time SMU leading receiver it will mean trouble for Nevada. Emmanuel Sanders has 91 receptions 1,215 yards receiveing both records at SMU. He has speed to burn and get pick you apart when he goes deep or when he catches slant routes and gets yard after the catch. Remember June Jones knows Nevada as he is 4-0 against them in Honolulu. Also worth noting is that Nevada's defensive coordinator has left the program to take the coaching job at Portland State. This leaves Nevada in even more trouble in my opinion. Let's just go over the numbers here. Against Top 35 passing attacks which SMU falls under, Nevada game up 34.66 points per game and were 3-3. Only one game would have covered the spread they have here. SMU arguably has better defenses than Notre Dame (L0-35), Utah State (W35-32), Idaho (W70-45), Hawaii (31-21). This game should be extremely interesting and a shoot out in the end I think SMU will have a good shot at winning this game outright. Or worse case a back door passing TDs gets the cover.

Utah +3 (3.5 Dime NCAAF POD) + ML +145 (1-Dime Bonus)
Got to come with the Utes in this situation. They own the leagues longest Bowl streak and have one of the better defenses. Against similar defense of Arizona, Oregon, USC, and Arizona State Cal did not come up with a lot of points in fact they averaged 13.25ppg. Utah is that type of defense closely resembling USC in terms of overall, but the main difference is the pass defense. Utah ranked #14 in the nation in pass defense and Cal has not faced a pass defense as good as Utah. I think Cal QB Kevin Riley will be in for quite a night. He has been inconsistent and I don't see him being able to do much which mean it will fall on the shoulders of backup RB Vareen. Vareen will get his yards, but I think Utah is slightly under rated against the run because they struggled down the stretch without their DT Kenape Eliapo who was out with eye injuries. He'll be back in this game.

Overall Utah has played better football and despite the game against TCU they have remained close in all three of their losses to top 25 teams. Including Oregon a common opponent where they almost came up with the tie, but fell short 24-31. This was @ Oregon and they were just -15 yards while Cal visited Oregon and were -317 yards and lost 3-42. Another example is what Utah did against BYU losing by three in OT. Why I bring up that is because Cal also faced a team that played last night this season in Oregon State who they lost to 14-31. So If Cal got smashed by Oregon, got beaten by 17 to Oregon State who lost 44-20 to BYU who Utah hung right with shouldn't Utah win tonight? I believe they can and will. Which is why I'll have a bonus on the money line for 1 dime. Utah is 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games while Cal is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as favorites 0.5 to 3.

I really think Cal gets beat here it is as if they are throwing in their towels after the disappointing loss to Washington to wrap up the season 42-10. That loss placed them in this bowl instead of the Sun Bowl against Oklahoma. I just do not think they will match Utah's intensity and they have never played well in San Diego as favorites in bowl games losing both out right. MWC is already 2-0 in bowl games where they were dogs this will be a huge statement game for the conference.

Utah +3 (3.5 Dime NCAAF POD) + ML +145 (1-Dime Bonus)
Got to come with the Utes in this situation. They own the leagues longest Bowl streak and have one of the better defenses. Against similar defense of Arizona, Oregon, USC, and Arizona State Cal did not come up with a lot of points in fact they averaged 13.25ppg. Utah is that type of defense closely resembling USC in terms of overall, but the main difference is the pass defense. Utah ranked #14 in the nation in pass defense and Cal has not faced a pass defense as good as Utah. I think Cal QB Kevin Riley will be in for quite a night. He has been inconsistent and I don't see him being able to do much which mean it will fall on the shoulders of backup RB Vareen. Vareen will get his yards, but I think Utah is slightly under rated against the run because they struggled down the stretch without their DT Kenape Eliapo who was out with eye injuries. He'll be back in this game.

Overall Utah has played better football and despite the game against TCU they have remained close in all three of their losses to top 25 teams. Including Oregon a common opponent where they almost came up with the tie, but fell short 24-31. This was @ Oregon and they were just -15 yards while Cal visited Oregon and were -317 yards and lost 3-42. Another example is what Utah did against BYU losing by three in OT. Why I bring up that is because Cal also faced a team that played last night this season in Oregon State who they lost to 14-31. So If Cal got smashed by Oregon, got beaten by 17 to Oregon State who lost 44-20 to BYU who Utah hung right with shouldn't Utah win tonight? I believe they can and will. Which is why I'll have a bonus on the money line for 1 dime. Utah is 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 non-conference games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games while Cal is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 as favorites 0.5 to 3.

I really think Cal gets beat here it is as if they are throwing in their towels after the disappointing loss to Washington to wrap up the season 42-10. That loss placed them in this bowl instead of the Sun Bowl against Oklahoma. I just do not think they will match Utah's intensity and they have never played well in San Diego as favorites in bowl games losing both out right. MWC is already 2-0 in bowl games where they were dogs this will be a huge statement game for the conference.

Oregon State -2.5 *4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
This will be a gold members club play and a NCAAF POD. A rare 4.5 Dime play where I have been cashing all season long!

My initial thought on the game was PAC-10 over MWC, but it's never that easy as BYU has played well in this bowl game. After looking at the match up further it was confirmed that I will be going with Oregon State here. There is just too much talent on the field for Oregon State with the Rodgers brothers and lefty QB Sean Canfield may surprise some as being the better QB on the field as he has completed more than 70% of his passes which is quite impressive. James Rodgers will take back kicks and punts and give Oregon State great field position all day long. I really like what I saw from Oregon State in the Civil War game. I was on Oregon in that game but the Beavers played a great game and I'm not worried about a let down. Ya this team lost that game and won't go to the Rose Bowl, but this is an opportunity to be recognized next year as a Top 25 team in the pre season polls as they will return 18 of their 22 starters. Oregon State also has a considerable advantage in the field goal game as Justin Kahut is 22 of 27 and 15 of 16 from inside 47 yards while Mitch Payne does not kick many and is just 9 for 13 on the year. Oregon State takes a 5 game winning streak in bowl games into this game and under Mike Riley they are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS. Oregon State is more battle tested and although they will have periods of struggle in their pass defense they will rebound with the balanced offense that BYU won't be able to stop.

BYU's QB Max Hall is one of the better QB's to come through the University. However, in his three year starting career he has just 13 games where he did not throw an interception. He often forces the ball and tries to make too much happen. Sometimes that is a good thing and it's worked well for him against inferior defenses and opponents. However, against a PAC-10 talent like Oregon State that played significantly better down the stretch against the pass, I don't see him having one of those games. Yes, he'll have time as Oregon State had just 15 sacks in the regular season, but in the end BYU won't get the stops on defense. Against the two strong opponents this year Florida State and TCU they lost by a combined score of 92-35. While I'm not calling for a blow out I really can see Oregon State putting up 40 points on this defense. They are very similar to Florida States offensive ranks that featured a strong passing game and mid running game. Florida State put up 54 points on BYU and they are significantly worse defensively than Oregon State. Overall BYU has had a weaker schedule and has played 5 defenses that ranked outside the Top 100 of 120 in FBS total defense ranks. Oregon State on the other hand faced only two. I just do not believe BYU will have the answers on defense or special teams to stop Oregon State. In the end if you watch this game you will remember Quizz Rodgers and James Rodgers as potential Heisman Trophy candidates next year and Sean Canfield as an under rated Sr. who can play at the next level if given a chance.

Finally BYU 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, and Oregon State 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the MWC. Why this line may look to good to be true? Well BYU had periods of good play against Oklahoma and they did crush UNLV while Oregon State just got by 23-21. Well Oklahoma seems like years ago and that was when Sam Bradford was injured. Bottom line the weakness of Oregon State is the pass defense, but they have improved throughout the season and I believe Mike Riley will have his team ready in this one.

bonus

MTSU +4 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
I am a little late on this play and I apologize. Got hit by 2 feet of snow today in the northeast and it really threw my schedule off. Either way I love this play for Middle Tennesee and I'll take the points.

Southern Miss has a great offense 28th in the country, but they have faced an average 84th ranked defense. I'm not sold on this offense to really take them over the hill because their defense is pretty bad. In their 4 games against "good defenses" they were 2-2 and only 1 game would have covered the spread we get here and that was against UCF in game 1 of the season when they won by 7. Middle Tenn has a solid defense ranked 48th and as it stands right now ranking wise it will be the best defense they have faced all year long, but you can't rank those stats like that because of strength of competition. One thing we do know is MTSU's defense is better than SMISS because they both played the same strength of schedule in terms of offenses they faced (65th average) and MTSU comes out on top and balanced. They also have the defensive front to disrupt SMISS offense.

MTSU led the nation this year in tackles for loss and was 4th in sacks. Granted it was against some poor offenses in the Sun Belt, but I do not like Southern Miss' chances here tonight to out score Dwight Dasher the QB of MTSU should have been the conference player of the year he had 21 passing TD's and 10 on the ground. He will take over this game when he has to and SMISS might fall even as favorites.

These two teams have one common opponent in Memphis. Both won the game while MTSU won 31-14 and SMISS won 36-16, both games at home. MTSU outgained Memphis by 217 yards while SMISS was out gained by 69 yards. That's good for nearly a 300 yard difference. That tells me that MTSU has a better defense and offense and even though it's a one game sample their is plenty other criteria that I have put into my thoughts on this game. SMISS really has not played well on the road this year going 1-5 while MTSU was 4-2 on the road. MTSU is 8-3 ats in their last 11 non-conference games and 8-2 ats in their last 10 after allowing less than 20 points to an opponent in their previous game. Many may think the passing on both sides will light up the sky but I think this will be a lower scoring game than many think.

Take Rutgers -2.5 3.5 Dime Play
I'll live and die with the Rutgers I'm 1-2 ATS playing with them this year, but I think we have a goo situation here between two teams that on the service look very much similar. Let's start with the trends first.

UCF is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Big East proving once again they just can not match up with the talent in the Big East. With the exception of Cinnci int he 1st game of the year Rutgers has been able to play in each game. Rutgers is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Conference USA. UCF is 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 non-conference games.

If you haven't watched Rutgers the last two weeks they have a new running threat in Mohammed Sanu out of the wild cat which has worked extremely well. I'm not buying UCF's run defense ranked 5th because they face a lot of teams in the conference USA that don't run at all as they faced an average rushing attack ranked 91st. So I think Joe Martinek and Sanu will get what they want in this game on Saturday night.

Many are thinking this is a home game for UCF and they may be right, but also note that this is a big recruiting game for Rutgers and Greg Schiano is 3-0-1 ATS in bowl games and this is their 5th bowl game in 5 years. I also like what Rutgers did when they had extra time to prepare as they beat a team that almost mirrors this UCF team in South Florida. With extra time Rutgers took care of UCF 31-0. S. Florida has similar offensive and deffensive numbers to UCF and we all know South Florida is better. It won't be that easy for Rutgers though as the offensive line that is ranked 112th in sacks allowed will go up against the best 1-2 tandem in the nation in Bruce Miller and Jarvis Geathers combine for 23 sacks. However, I think UCF will have more issues offensively than Rutgers because Rutgers have plenty of offense despite their rankings as they have those rankings against a much stronger opponent out of the Big East.

UCF has played just two solid defenses in the top 25 in Miami and Texas where they scored a total of 10 points. The defense falls off significantly after and overall they played a 78th ranked defense compared to Rutgers who faced 53rd ranked. Rutgers is a top notch defense and leads the nation in turnovers forced so look out. Rutgers will have to force a turnover or two in a low scoring game. I think they do in this one.. The only reason why I think this spread is not a bit higher is the fact that UCF's offense started clicking at the end of the year scoring 34, 49, and 37, but note that came against awful defense ranked 108, 103, and 112 in total defense where as Rutgers ranks 19th.

Clemson +1 -105 4-Dime NCAAF POD ru
I'm going with Clemson in this one as they out scored Georgia Tech 20-6 in the 2nd half of their 1st meeting this year. Clemson was able to stop the running game late on route to keep it close. They actually took the lead 27-24 after tailing 24-7 at half time.

Georgia ran all over Georgia Tech a week ago and while that's an SEC team it gave CJ Spiller some room for confidence that Georgia Tech can be bullied. I expect it to be all about Spiller today and I expect the Clemson D to be ready for that triple option. They always have the athletes to defend and despite being ran on 49 times for 301 yards the first go around Clemson has the 45th ranked run defense in the nation as well as the 12th ranked pass defense. They should be loading the box and as long as the LB stick to their assignments they will give the offense an opportunity to win.

Take California -6.5 @5Dimes (3-DIME PLAY)
Do you remember the last time Cal came off a bye and went on the road to play a PAC-10 team. I do they beat UCLA 45-26. UCLA has a much better defense than Washington ranked 37th overall int he nation while Washington ranked 88th. They lost to Notre Dame for crying out loud. However, Wash is a tough place to play just ask any NFL team that goes to play the Seahawks.

However, Cal is just to dangerous and Washington's defense is bad enough. They rank 9th in the PAC-10 in many defensive categories and Cal among one of the better offenses. With or without Jahvid Best they've been able to put up the points. Shane Vereen has been more than an able replacement he has 352 yards rushing and 4 TD's in Best's absence.

Take Alabama +6 -115 BODOG + Alabama +3 1st Half (1.5 Dimes) Alabama +195 (1-Dime)
This is it it's the game of the year SEC Championship game probably the hardest conference to go undefeated in yet here it is Florida vs. Alabama.

Everyone is still all over Florida and it has chased this line up to 6 points. Alabama is much more talented defensively this year than last year and on the other side Florida won't have play makers Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy instead Riley Cooper and TE Aaron Hernandez are the major weapons. What that means is the 4th quarter come back that Tebow had last year won't happen again this year. If you recall Alabama led 20-17 after three quarters and Parker Wilson was 1-4 with a sack and interception in the 4th quarter while Tebow was 4-4 72 yards. That was the difference. Unfortunately Florida just does not have as many weapons as a year ago which is pretty obvious considering they haven't blown anyone out of the water and they've had tough times moving the football against many teams int he SEC including Tennessee.

Lucky for Florida Alabama has had as many issues and has yet to put back to back games together but this is the game Alabama has been looking to win for over a year ever since they let last years opportunity slip away. They find them selves nearly touch down under dogs and will be extremely motivated in this one. Maybe they come up short by a FG or maybe they win by a field goal, but in the end I think Alabama gets this game this year. These teams are just too close for a team to be under dog by 5.5-6 points. I'll go over the key SEC rankings. Scoring offense Florida #2, Alabama #4, Scoring Defense Alabama #1 and Florida #2, Rushing Offense Alabama #4 and Florida #1. Rushing Defense Alabama #1 and Florida #2. Here is the big difference though Alabama holding opponents 77.1 rushing yards per game while Florida 89.9. This along with Florida missing Dunlap for his DUI suspension is a huge advantage to Alabama. Especially when both teams rely heavily on their running games. Look for Alabama's NT Cody to clog up the middle and the Alabama LB will keep Tebow in check all day long.

Folks this is going to be a great defensive game and a classic it has everything but in the end the difference is Red Zone offense and Red zone defense which Alabama ranked #6 in red zone offense in the SEC while Florida 10th, and Red Zone defense Alabama #1 and Florida #3. There you have it and you heard it hear Alabama wins in a slug fest. Enjoy