Kansas State -3 +105 3% play

I like the Wildcats here getting +105, if you wait you can probably get -2.5 on Friday or Saturday.  I think this is a flat spot for Oklahoma State following their victory over a top 10 West Virginia team last week.  Now they go on the road to face a Bill Snyder squad who I have favored by 6 in this game.  That does not take into consideration that Kansas State has faced a more challenging schedule this season.  Mike Gundy has been excellent since 2005 in August – October with a 71-23 record, but once November hits he’s just 22-20.  The home team has also won the last 5 meetings.

The match up I really like in this spot is the fact that Kansas State should be able to run the ball.  Oklahoma State is ranked 95th and have allowed opponents +30.5 yards per game over their season average offensively.  Kansas State is ranked 28th in that regard holding opponents well under their season averages.  Oklahoma State has been victim of QB’s picking up yards with their feet.  Baylor’s Seth Russel had 65 yards on 10 carries, Iowa State’s Joel Lanning had 67 yards (highest total this year) and he’s not nearly the running QB Kansas State’s Jesse Ertz is and even Kansas Montell Cozart had 6 carries for 30 yards his highest all year.  That’s a huge key, because Kansas State has put up points against bad defenses, and they average 5.82 ypc at home, 5.80 ypc in wins 3.04 in losses.  Oklahoma State is allowing 5.16 ypc in conference play so I expect Kansas State to have success running the ball here and controlling the game. 

Oklahoma State is very one dimensional, and they don’t protect their QB ranked 86th overall in QB protection.  In their road games this year they have allowed 11% sack percentage.  Kansas State has had success getting to the QB at home and have been able to force turnovers.  Kansas State has turned the ball over just 7 times this year.  Oklahoma State when they are not more than +1 in TO margin are just 2-2 on the year.

Syracuse +28 2.2% PLAY

I see a few 28’s popping back up and I recommend if you see the 28 to take it.

The Orange are off a bye which is extremely valuable to a growing program.  The offense is capable of keeping up with Clemson. Clemson of course off the emotional victory over Florida State on the road last week.  We mentioned it in our podcast we mentioned it in other premium selections.  Teams ranked in the college football playoff tend to struggle to cover the spread.  Clemson has only blown out one team all year in Boston College.  Syracuse of course can score some points and Clemson really has no motivation to impress anyone.  They win out no matter how many points they win by and they are in the college football playoff, but this is far too many points for this team.  I would not be shocked if Clemson struggles in the early going and has to come from behind to win.  If this were in NY I would probably sprinkle a little on the money line. 

Georgia +4 / Northwestern +12 4.4% Teaser of the week

Georgia +4

I’m going with the more desperate team in this match up that has had the tougher schedule.  Kentucky playing well, because they are finally running the ball more than throwing at 63% on the year.  However, they have faced a top 70 rushing defense 3 times this year and are 1-2 with their only victory by 2 points to Miss State at home.  The other two games against Florida & Alabama they managed just 13 points combined.  Georgia has that kind of defense when you look at what they can do against the run ranking 11th in ypc allowed, allowing just 2.8 YPC in conference play.  Kentucky is at home, but Georgia is at its best when it can run the ball.  Kentucky’s defense is certainly improved, but against the run they are allowing 4.73 ypc in conference play.  Georgia has a big arm QB and as long as he does not make big mistakes Georgia wins this game, because they will be able to run the ball.

Northwestern +12

The Wildcats may just have the best QB in the conference, and Wisconsin having serious issues scoring the ball on anyone have now resorted to a two QB system.  Northwestern put up 20 points at Ohio State last week they put up 24 against a good Indiana defense, 54 on Michigan State, 38 on Iowa.  I just don’t see them getting blown out against Wisconsin with a total of 41 in the game.  Clayton Thorson has been great completing 57.1% of his passes for 15 TD’s and 6 INT’s and he can also run it a little bit, but will rely on Justin Jackson who only rushed it 17 times last week.

Wisconsin’s defense is also banged up with 5 linebackers either questionable or out for the season.  It looks like T.J. Watt will give it a go, but there is just a lot on their injury list and Northwestern is completely healthy.  I expect a competitive game that’s anyone’s game in the 4th quarter. 

UCLA/Colorado Under 58 2.2% play

I actually like the Bruins in this spot tonight, but can’t really pull the trigger.  I actually like the under more as UCLA has a very under rated defense and my numbers have this about 51.  I think we are getting some extra points given the fact that UCLA put up 42 on Utah.  This will be a very different game on the road in Colorado, and even though I like how Mike Fafaul has looked it’s hard to back a guy who just threw 4 interceptions and 464 yards.  Instead I’ll take the under here.  I do believe Colorado has the pass defense to shut UCLA’s offense down.  Both teams are struggling in the red zone and both defenses have played well.

In fact UCLA has allowed just 2.96 yards per carry on the road this year.  They are also ranked 29th allowing 56.6 yards below their opponent’s average.  Meanwhile Colorado comes into this game ranked 16th in that category.  Definitely a lot more defense in this game.  Both teams come in with extra rest and to me that typically benefits the defenses at this point in the season.   If you want you could parlay UCLA with the under for some good value.  Typically if you like an underdog the under will cash. 

Iowa State +21 -115 2% play

I like Iowa State here.  I have felt all season Oklahoma has been an over rated team, and now they are put into a situation they are not used to.  That's traveling on short rest to play a Thursday night game.  Stoops actually might be out coached in this game against Iowa State, a rivalry he has owned for a long time.  I think it's also important to note that Oklahoma has a much bigger game on deck against Baylor that they are looking ahead to that.  Iowa State has played some conference opponents tough at home.  They gave a game to Kansas State, and Baylor, and they lost only 7 points on the road against Oklahoma State.  I think Matt Campbell is ahead of schedule with this team and despite their 1-7 record they have been a competitive team. 

Hawaii / New Mexico Over 63.5 2.2% play

This total has come down nearly 4 points and that’s enough for me to take the over as I have this one predicted at 70 total points.  New Mexico features the #4 run offense in terms of yards per carry.  Hawaii has really struggled stopping the run.  Hawaii has given up 51, 63, 47, and 41 points to teams in the top 32 in rushing yards per carry.  Air Force is not in the top 50 this year, but they too had nearly 400 yards rushing on Hawaii, but somehow managed just 27 points.  New Mexico should have their way with Hawaii in an back and forth game. 

It’s also important to note that Hawaii is a much improved team and they are starting to get balanced behind their QB Dru Brown who had 3 passing TD’s a week ago.  Hawaii’s offense at this point is capable of beating a team in the air or on the ground which makes for an exciting offensive display here tonight against New Mexico who is given up 30+ points to teams ranked 67th, 128th, 77th, and 125th in yards per play allowed.  Hawaii is in the top 25 as is New Mexico’s offense in yards per play.  These are offensive teams that can score on average to even above average defenses.  Both recently faced Air force who ranks 36th in yards per play allowed and they put up 45 and 34 points each.  Expect that kind of score as Hawaii is scoring 85% TD’s in the red zone, New Mexico is allowing 81% in conference play.

Ole Miss +10.5 Teaser w/ Nebraska +15 4.4% Play

Nebraska

First things first we have a very low total with a lot of points to work with.  Wisconsin also has played Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa the last 4 weeks which has really had an impact with some wear and tear as 16 guys on the injured list for Wisconsin this week.  Nebraska on the other hand is really getting healthy with three offensive lineman including Nick Gates, and David Knevel returning along with their best offensive weapon Jordan Westerkamp.  This is a perfect opportunity for Nebraska to pull the upset and continue their undefeated season.  Either way I don’t think Wisconsin’s offense is good enough to be almost a double digit favorite.  Wisconsin is #91 in rushing yards per carry, and their QB has shown some poise, but Hornibrook 5 TD’s to 6 interceptions is not going to scare anyone and Nebraska’s pass defense is very good.  Only two teams this season have eclipsed 20 points on the Huskers defense and both were better offensively and sported an up tempo attack.  Indiana 57th in YPP, and Oregon 17th.  Wisconsin ranks 82nd.

Nebraska getting healthy on offense for this game is a big deal.  I think they have some tricks up their sleeves and won’t be afraid to take some shots.  Mike Riley has known to be very aggressive.  Wisconsin’s defense has struggled against one thing this year and that’s a rushing QB.  JT Barret had 92 yards and 2 TD’s ultimately being the difference in that game.  Tommy Armstrong has a better arm than Barret although he will make the occasional mistake he has taken care of the ball this year.  Armstrong had 50 yards rushing on 8 carries against Wisconsin last year in the 2 point loss.  Nebraska also has the edge on special teams ranking 13th overall to Wisconsin ranking 72nd.

Ole Miss -

A couple of things in this game.  First of all Auburn is going on the road for the second time all year long.  Auburn has faced a top 35 offense from a YPP perspective just 3 times this season and they are 1-2 in those games with their win coming against LSU by only 5 points at home.  Ole Miss has had a brutal schedule and people forget nobody played Alabama tighter than Ole Miss.  They still have arguably the nation’s best QB in Chad Kelly.  Auburn’s defense has been stout, but they haven’t faced a QB like Kelly who threw for 400 yards on them a year ago.  I’m just not ready to call Auburn a Top 10 team and Ole Miss is probably the best 4 loss team in the country.  They have had a brutal schedule and it does not get any easier, but this is a game they could win and we are getting some extra points because of recent public perception.

For one Ole Miss just lost at Arkansas and Auburn just crush Arkansas 56-3, but that was truly a bad spot for Arkansas in my opinion.  Ole Miss also off back to back losses, and I think they really need this game to feel good about themselves.  Ole Miss pass defense is excellent at home allowing 0 passing TD’s on the year.  Sean White in 4 road games has 1 passing TD and 3 interceptions.  He’s played well, but Ole Miss pass defense is very good and should be able to keep the scoring down in this game.  Auburn is a run first team and Ole Miss struggles vs. the run, but I think they should be able to contain it better than the experts think especially since Auburn only averaged 4 yards per carry at Miss State.  I think the Ole Miss, a night game as an underdog against a ranked team is a very dangerous thing especially when you consider this team nearly upset Alabama here.

Ole Miss +10.5 Teaser w/ Nebraska +15 4.4% Play

Nebraska

First things first we have a very low total with a lot of points to work with.  Wisconsin also has played Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa the last 4 weeks which has really had an impact with some wear and tear as 16 guys on the injured list for Wisconsin this week.  Nebraska on the other hand is really getting healthy with three offensive lineman including Nick Gates, and David Knevel returning along with their best offensive weapon Jordan Westerkamp.  This is a perfect opportunity for Nebraska to pull the upset and continue their undefeated season.  Either way I don’t think Wisconsin’s offense is good enough to be almost a double digit favorite.  Wisconsin is #91 in rushing yards per carry, and their QB has shown some poise, but Hornibrook 5 TD’s to 6 interceptions is not going to scare anyone and Nebraska’s pass defense is very good.  Only two teams this season have eclipsed 20 points on the Huskers defense and both were better offensively and sported an up tempo attack.  Indiana 57th in YPP, and Oregon 17th.  Wisconsin ranks 82nd.

Nebraska getting healthy on offense for this game is a big deal.  I think they have some tricks up their sleeves and won’t be afraid to take some shots.  Mike Riley has known to be very aggressive.  Wisconsin’s defense has struggled against one thing this year and that’s a rushing QB.  JT Barret had 92 yards and 2 TD’s ultimately being the difference in that game.  Tommy Armstrong has a better arm than Barret although he will make the occasional mistake he has taken care of the ball this year.  Armstrong had 50 yards rushing on 8 carries against Wisconsin last year in the 2 point loss.  Nebraska also has the edge on special teams ranking 13th overall to Wisconsin ranking 72nd.

Ole Miss -

A couple of things in this game.  First of all Auburn is going on the road for the second time all year long.  Auburn has faced a top 35 offense from a YPP perspective just 3 times this season and they are 1-2 in those games with their win coming against LSU by only 5 points at home.  Ole Miss has had a brutal schedule and people forget nobody played Alabama tighter than Ole Miss.  They still have arguably the nation’s best QB in Chad Kelly.  Auburn’s defense has been stout, but they haven’t faced a QB like Kelly who threw for 400 yards on them a year ago.  I’m just not ready to call Auburn a Top 10 team and Ole Miss is probably the best 4 loss team in the country.  They have had a brutal schedule and it does not get any easier, but this is a game they could win and we are getting some extra points because of recent public perception.

For one Ole Miss just lost at Arkansas and Auburn just crush Arkansas 56-3, but that was truly a bad spot for Arkansas in my opinion.  Ole Miss also off back to back losses, and I think they really need this game to feel good about themselves.  Ole Miss pass defense is excellent at home allowing 0 passing TD’s on the year.  Sean White in 4 road games has 1 passing TD and 3 interceptions.  He’s played well, but Ole Miss pass defense is very good and should be able to keep the scoring down in this game.  Auburn is a run first team and Ole Miss struggles vs. the run, but I think they should be able to contain it better than the experts think especially since Auburn only averaged 4 yards per carry at Miss State.  I think the Ole Miss, a night game as an underdog against a ranked team is a very dangerous thing especially when you consider this team nearly upset Alabama here.

Texas +155 2.5% PLAY

Texas 3-0 home straight up and is +13 better at home.  I actually have Baylor 3 points better on a neutral field, but that’s not taking into consideration strength of schedule as Baylor is ranked 79th and Texas is ranked 25th.  Baylor is ranked #8 in the country and that’s not at all even close to being accurate.  This team lost a ton on defense and their offense really hasn’t looked that great.  Seth Russell for instance completing just 57% of his passes and has had a lower QB rating than what opponents have given up on the season in every game but 1.  He completed 43% of his passes against Kansas.  Texas not known for their defense this year, but they are much better at home and have improved since Charlie Strong took over the play calling duties.

Texas actually much better on offense than what Baylor saw previously and really that’s the difference in this game for me.  Baylor is vulnerable on the defensive side of the ball they lost a ton of talent form last year.  They have already given up 175+ yards rushing in 4 games to mediocre talent.  We have already seen signs of this defense being bad where they gave up 42 points to Iowa State, and in conference play they are allowing 49% third down conversions and 67% TD’s in the red zone.  Texas can move the ball in this one on the ground and in the air.  Everything I have been reading has supported the Texas players wanting to win and play hard for Strong.  They did the same thing last year and they seem to play their best against big time opponents.  I can see Texas winning this one by double digits.  Baylor has played 1 game in 3 weeks and should be rusty here.  Texas could really score a ton early in this game and let their pass defense take over which is ranked #4 in sack percentage.

Miami -1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I am going to take the Hurricanes as my top play this week as I really think they are getting a lot of value despite losing 3 games in a row.  They faced three teams ranked in the top 25 and should have beaten Florida State a hard game to come off of with a loss for this program, but things are trending in the right direction as Mark Richt has this team playing defense and they are clearly much improved.  They have had a much more challenging schedule than Notre Dame has and the ACC is arguably the best conference in the nation.  Notre Dame has yet to play a defense that ranks in the top 50 in rushing and passing defense, and every time they have faced a top 50 run or pass defense they have lost.  Miami ranks 32nd vs. the run and 13th vs. the pass and will give Notre Dame Issues on Saturday.

On the flip side Miami has faced three teams who had a top 50 run defense and pass defense.  5 of their 6 opponents have been ranked in the top 50 in pass defense, and Brad Kaaya, the senior QB is still putting up good numbers.  Now he gets to face Notre Dame how ranks 108th in adjusted pass defense, a team that simply can’t get to the QB they have 6 sacks on the season and are -13 in sacks compare that with Miami who is +7 and has 22 sacks on the season.  Miami also +38 in tackles for loss compared to Notre Dame who is -7 in tackles for loss.  I was shocked to see Stanford come in and win their game 2 weeks ago without Christina McCaffrey and no QB, but Stanford did it they averaged 4.40 yards per carry on this defense and got out with a win.  The next week they went home and put up 5 points against Colorado.

Offensively, Miami in adjusted offensive rankings are 58th running, and 29th passing.  Notre Dame has faced 5 teams in the top 70 in adjusted passing offense.  Taking out the NC State game because they played in a hurricane this defense has allowed 39 points per game, and none of those teams were ranked as highly as Miami, and only Texas had somewhat of a balanced attack and they put up 50 points and clearly don’t have the defense that Miami has.  On the flip side, Miami’s defense has faced a lot of top offenses, 3 of which have top 50 run and pass offenses.  Notre Dame surprisingly doesn’t have either as they rank 73rd in rushing and 78th in passing.  The only thing Notre Dame has going for them is the fact that they are coming off a bye, but Miami off extra rest here too, and Miami has played well on the road.

Cincinnati +7.5 3.3% PLAY

Both of these teams come off impressive wins, but there is certainly more value in the number with the Bearcats, a team that typically can beat anyone in this conference on a given night.  They are 2-5 ATS on the season compared to Temple who is 7-1 ATS now, and come off a cover by 21.5 points against South Florida.  I’ll take the Bearcats as they looked their best in their last game.  This also should be a team that is fired up after losing this game last year despite being +261 yards of offense as they turned the ball over 5 times.

Make no mistake about it Temple does not have the same defense and they have faced mostly an easy schedule in terms of offenses faced.  Temple is going to slow this game down and they are going to do it by running the ball 60% of the time at home, for an average of 65 total plays.  Cincinnati is very quietly a pretty solid defense ranking 49th vs. the run, and 39th in points per play allowed.  Based on that they should give up 22 points to Temple which I can easily see them covering.  The Cincinatti defense is arguably the best run defense Temple has faced all year and they need to run the ball to win.  They average 5.21 ypc in wins, and 2.44 in losses. 

Now I think the bigger key here and why I like the Bearcats so much is the fact that they only have given up 8 total rushing TD’s.  They have held opponents to 38% TD rate in the red zone which is very good.  PJ Walker, the Temple QB really not capable of beating this team with his arm.  Actually when looking at it 5 of those rushing TD’s allowed came in one game against South Florida (#4 rushing team in the nation).  Temple is not in the top 50.  Cinci’s offense put them in terrible position time after time.  Temple has only faced 2 teams in the top 50 in rushing defense and struggled to score in both.  Their opponents love to give up rushing TD’s compared with Cinci as only one team has allowed less than 10 rushing TD’s.   

When Cinci has the ball it should do good things.  Gunner Kiel is a 5 star QB who still has all the motivation in the world to play well.  He is a guy that can still get drafted believe it or not, but it was just yesterday that he was the third string QB for whatever reason.  It seems like Kiel has been around for forever, but he’s a solid option here coming off the East Carolina game where he threw for 348 yards 4 TD’s and 0 INT’s.  He’s given this Bearcats offense some light and that in combination with the Bearcats stifling run defense I believe we are in good shape for a cover if not the outright upset.

Michigan State +24.5 3.3% Play – Michigan State +1475 0.25%

On paper this looks like a mismatch, but this is the biggest game of the year for the Spartans who don’t have much to achieve but beating and spoiling the Wolverines season.  I believe we will see their best effort here at home and I would not be shocked to see an upset.  This is Michigan’s second road game of the year and the first one came against Rutgers which arguably is the worst team in football.   Michigan State was a 7 point favorite on the road last year held Michigan to 168 total yards and 10 first downs and now they are a 24.5 point underdog at home.  That’s a line movement of epic proportions of 37.5 points and I just can’t imagine there being that big of a difference.  I think all of the pressure is on Michigan who wants revenge for what happened last year, but now they are on the road getting all this hype and Michigan State players definitely want this game and I actually liked what I saw from their offensive line a week ago.

The Spartans got back to basics and ran the ball for 270 yards against Maryland.  They still have an offensive line with plenty of experience and some good options at RB.  I expect some trick plays in this game and Michigan to possibly be in a little bit of trouble.  Mark Dantonio said, “Can we win? Yeah, we can win. I firmly believe that. I know none of you do, but that's why I'm coaching.”

Connecticut +7 2.2% play

East Carolina is not top 50 in any offensive or defensive category and they rank 126th in special teams S&P.  This might be the worst defense Uconn has faced as Uconn has faced 4 teams in the top 50 in run defense.  Their road games have been extremely challenging as well facing the 3 best out of the AAC in Navy, Houston, and South Florida all on the road.  I think that prepares you for a game like this and I think Uconn can actually win this game outright.  I have these two teams even at 28-28 and even if you are giving 3 points to East Carolina we are well within in the 7 points.

IT’s not every day that Uconn gets to face a team that cannot stop the run or the pass as East Carolina ranks #109 vs. the run and #101 vs. the pass.  Uconn should be able to score points in this one and they should have a better time in the red zone considering they are a balanced offense and they have struggled, but against defenses that are either really good at stopping the run or the pass.  Est Carolina has allowed 5 of their 6 opponents to rush for more yards per carry than their season average and in some cases much more.  For instance they faced a #82 rushing attack and allowed +2.94 ypc than the opponent’s average.  They faced #114, and allowed +1.38 ypc, and against a #99 allowed +1.04YPC.  It’s a key stat because when Uconn can establish the run they should win and they have a capable QB unlike prior years in Bryant Shirreffs and receiver Noel Thomas to pick up yards.

On the flip side East Carolina will pass the ball a lot, but Uconn is at least good at slowing one part of their game plan down.  Uconn has struggled vs. the pass at times, but they have also faced some pretty good passing teams and many of those on the road.  East Carolina is not even in the top 50 in passing the ball and have had many turnovers as they are -12 on the season.  Uconn can stop the run without stacking the box which will allow them to sit back and force Phillip Nelson into mistakes.  East Carolina also just 41% TD rate in the red zone and Uconn plays the red zone really well allowing just 53%.  Uconn has a lot of advantages in this game and I would not be surprised to see them pull the upset. 

DUKE/Georgia Tech Under 51 3.3% TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Duke has had extra time to prepare for the triple option, and their offense has not played very well outside of the Notre Dame game so I think Georgia Tech keeps them under wraps as well.  Both teams are off a bye here and I think both teams defenses will be tough to score on.  Duke already handles the triple option extremely well.  It also helps that Georgia Tech is coming off back to back games scoring in the 30’s, and they are well over due to struggle a bit and play some defense.  Duke meanwhile just got done holding Louisville to a season low 24 points which was extremely impressive.  Both defenses are above average in the red zone on defense.  The Under is 10-4-1 in Duke’s last 15 games following a bye week, and they are 15-7 to the Under in their last 22 conference games and the Under is 4-0 the last 4 meetings here at Georgia Tech

Georgia Southern +6 3.3% PLAY

These two teams are very similar and I actually have this game as a 24-24 final according to my math and my algorithims tell me to take the home team here and that’s what I’ll do as Georgia Southern a very good home team. 

This is known as the “Deeper Than Hate” rivalry game, and these two used to meet when they were in the FCS and now in Sun Belt play.  Both like to run the ball far more than they pass at 62% for App State and 72% for Georgia Southern who runs the option.  Both teams are very good at stopping the run, but both offenses had success running the ball last year.  The difference in the 31-13 final was the fact that Georgia Southern only ran it 38 times at a 4.9 ypc clip, but passed 13 times and threw 2 interceptions.  Meanwhile Taylor Lamb completed 70% of his passes and threw 2 TD’s.

That will all change this year in my opinion as Lamb is simply not the same guy considering he has a completely rebuilt receiving corp.  He has just 7 TD’s to 5 interceptions and we are 7 games in.  He had 31 a year ago and 16 through 7 games a year ago.  I think Georgia Southern can get off the field in this game and they will do a better job of staying on the field as they have a 51% third down conversion percentage this year they are actually better on offense and defense on third down than Appalachian State.

There really are not a lot of differences between these two teams.  Georgia Southern is 1-6 ATS on the year so automatic line value.  They are 12-1 in their last 13 home games, and App State has to travel on the road on a short week to face an option team.  I’ll take the value as this one is up to 6 points. 

Arizona State +7.5 3.3% play

Arizona State is a very good home team and has covered their last 7 home games.  They are particularly large under dogs in this spot against Washington State, a team getting a ton of credit now, but I am really not sold on them yet and they have a completely new task going on the road this week.  Arizona State will run an up tempo offensive style with a QB that can run.  Washington State has yet to face an offense that is in the top 50 in tempo, and I believe that will give them fits.

On the flip side it’s a nice match up for the Cougars as Arizona State struggles vs. the pass, but they have 7 interceptions in their home games this season and have held opponents to a 57% red zone TD%.  Luke Falk’s last game here he threw 4 interceptions and I think Arizona State’s havoc in the front 7 can change this game in their favor.

It also helps that Arizona State’s Manny Wilkins is healthy and is facing a pass defense that is 111th in pass rush.  The last time he faced a team that could not get to the QB he put up 351 yards passing and 2 passing TD’s and his team scored 68 points.  This team has beaten Texas Tech, California and UCLA at home.  Washington State’s defense is much improved, but they have to prove they can stop a team that can run and pass the ball in an up tempo game.  They are also allowing 73.3% red zone TD’s. Arizona State is very good in the red zone and have the #5 ranked special teams.  Washington State’s kicker has been awful and I won’t be surprised if Arizona State is able to turn this team over in the red zone a couple of times. 

Colorado +8 Teaser w/ LSU -0.5 4.4% play

LSU

Should be able to run the ball in this game.  Ole Miss has really struggled to stop the run and LSU will be very fresh in their running game this week as they ran the ball only 24 times in their easy win against Southern Miss.  Ole Miss probably the best 3 loss team in the nation, but having allowed 56.34 yards per carry in conference play does not look good for them on the road in a night game against LSU.

LSU’s defensive strength is also their pass defense.  Chad Kelly has been able to perform well against top defenses, but I think this may be asking too much in a road game at night in Death Valley.  LSU could be peaking ahead to Alabama, but they have a bye in between to make sure they are not.  I expect another complete game just like we have seen in back to back weeks under Ed Orgeron who was the head coach at Ole Miss once upon a time ago.  LSU held Kelly in check last year on the road, but they lost 17-38 and certainly want revenge.  LSU turned the ball over 3 times in that game and I don’t expect that to happen.  Ole Miss lost a ton of play makers from a year ago and certainly are not the same team.  LSU’s pass defense has allowed 3 passing TD’s and 4 INT’s.  This is also a tough spot for Ole miss playing in back to back road games for the first time since 2013.

Colorado..

Stanford won last week against Notre Dame and were lucky to do so.  This Stanford team just is not very good.  We have seen what teams have done the week after getting a “big win” against Notre Dame.  Stanford’s defense is not as good and their offense is not as good with or without Christian McCaffrey who will likely play in this game.  McCaffrey is not getting as many touches and should be fresh for this game, but Buffalo’s defense is much improved since the last time these two met.

I really like what Jim Leavitt has done he has this defense playing extremely well.  In 2014 before Leavitt came over to be the defensive coordinator Colorado gave up 39 points per game, in conference play they allowed 31 TD’s and 1 INT that year.  In his first year they made a dramatic improvement allowing 27.5 points per game.  Their pass defense also improved to 19 TD’s allowed and 7 INT in conference play.  This year they are allowing 20 points per game, and their pass defense through 4 conference games is allowing 53.3% completions 6 TD’s and 5 INT’s.  Their run defense also allowing less than 4 yards per carry.  The only opponents that have put up points on this defense are Michigan and Oregon who are in the top 25 for offenses and have a balanced approach.  Stanford is very much one dimensional, easy to prepare for and ranked 94th in the S&P offensive ratings. Stanford is -4 in TO margin this year and Colorado has forced a TO in 20 straight games.

On the flip side you have Stanford whose defense has started to show signs of struggling.  They struggle against top offenses that can beat you with the running and passing game and that’s what Colorado has proven that they can do.  Stanford gave up 42 points to Washington State who does not grade as high as Colorado, but does have a good offense running and passing.  Washington also scored 44 on this defense and have a good running and passing game.  Colorado ranks 27th and 1st in the S&P rankings for running and throwing.  They hung with Michigan on the road before they lost their QB Sefo Liufau, but he’s back and the senior is ready to give Stanford a tough game on the road.

East Carolina +8 2.2% play

Both teams want to throw the ball here and I feel like East Carolina has the edge with Phil Nelson and the nation’s leading receiver Zay Jones.  East Carolina has gone up against 5 top 50 pass defenses already and I think they are better than their 2-4 record suggests.  Think about who they have played so far in South Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech, and South Florida.  They have done it with injury issues in the secondary, but they come into this game completely healthy which is critical against a Cinci team that typically is very strong on offense.

This year however Cinci has struggled big time they are 11th in scoring and 8th in yardage in the AAC.  Now they turn to once highly coveted QB Gunner Kiel.  I am not sure what happened to Kiel he has not been the same since he was knocked out of the game last year.  He was listed 3rd on the depth chart all year and now all of a sudden he’s getting the nod.  I just don’t think anything good will come of it and Cinci is going to have to score some points.  East Carolina has a dynamic offense that will put up points on Cincinnati’s secondary. 

East Carolina also got their heart and soul of their defense back in Demetri McGill which should be a huge addition.  East Carolina is desperate for a win and rank 1st in AAC in yardage but 9th in scoring.  They have been extremely unlucky at times with the 112th fumble recovery rate, and their red zone issues have lost them games, but now that the schedule is easing up a bit I can see the Pirates rattling off a few wins.  

Oregon State +36.5 -1.06 2.2 % play 

Oregon State has a ton of injuries including both of their QB’s, but that’s not really the strength of this team which is their RB.  Of course they are missing their top RB as well, but I they do have alternates that have run well this season.  Oregon State does a few things well that Washington have either not seen or strugged with this year.

First Oregon State runs the ball well at over 5 yards per carry they rank 22nd in the country.  This will be just the third time Washington faces an offense ranked top 70 in rushing offense.  This should slow the game down quite a bit in my opinion.  The two times Washington faced such offenses they gave up 21 and 28 points.  Arizona who does not have a particularly capable QB ran the ball for over 300 yards on Washington.

The next things is Washington has not faced a top 60 passing defense all year.  Oregon State very good against the pass, but not so good against the run.  I see Washington running the ball and getting out of this game looking ahead to their game on the road against Utah in what will be a very challenging game for this team.  36.5 points is a ton of points to work with when you consider Rutgers got 25 here to begin the season and Idaho got 36.5.  Oregon State is much improved and I think they will show it in this game.  This is also an extremely low total so taking the points in this game is even more tempting.

Navy +130 to win outright! 3 out of 5 on my confidence rating.

Navy falls into a very good situation we have been tracking since the 2015 season in the AAC. Teams with a winning record are 15-6 ATS following an ATS win by double digits returning home in their next game.

I expect a high scoring game here as both defenses are not the best at stopping what each other do.  Navy here is off an unexpected bye after their game with East Carolina was postponed.  I just think that gives them an extra edge and rest and I won’t be so concerned with the possibility of a hang over after they upset Houston the week before.  So let’s look at this match up where it counts.

Navy, of course runs the triple option that is very hard to stop.  Memphis who had a better run defense last year was unable to stop it allowing 374 yards rushing in their loss a season ago.  Memphis of course also lost their star QB and star head coach Justin Fuente.  Navy lost their pieces too, but if there is one team that’s great at rebounding and playing consistent winning football that is Navy.  So the question is can Memphis stop this rushing attack?

Before I answer that question it’s worth noting that Memphis in wins last year allowed just 983 yards rushing and 2.87 yards per carry over 9 games with 10 TD’s.  In their 4 losses they allowed 921 yards, 14 TD’s, and 4.65 yards per carry.  2016 has been no different as in their 5 wins they allowed 577 yards and 3.58 yards per carry, but in their loss they allowed 5.98 yards per carry and as many rushing TD’s 4.

The answer to the question can Memphis stop the rushing attack?  I don’t believe so.  They bring in a new defensive coordinator in Chris Ball, who was a co-defensive coordinator the last 3 years at Arizona State.  They were never that great at stopping the run nor were they seeing rushing offenses like this.  Also Memphis ranked 39th in rushing yards allowed so on paper it looks like this is a good match up for them, but they have faced just 1 team in the top 50 in rushing offense.  The other 5 were 127, 77, 82, and 88 and ironically when they faced 127th ranked rushing offense they allowed 1.5 yards per carry more than their season average.  They also faced a FCS team to throw into their misleading rushing defense.  To stop a Navy attack you must create havoc, tackles for loss to set up third and long.  That’s not been something Memphis has done this year.  In fact they are 110th in front 7 havoc, and they are -11 sacks, -17 tackles for loss as a team.  Their defensive strength is forcing turnovers particularly interceptions they have 18 this year, but Navy does not turn the ball over with 6 lost all year.  We took about that turnover luck from a fumble recovery standpoint and Memphis ranking 32nd in luck, Navy actually believe it or not ranks 116th recovering just 33% of fumbles in their games.  As we know that typically goes back to the mean of 50%.

You also have to look at the fact of if Navy can run?  Navy has faced 4 top 50 rushing defenses and Uconn, who is very under rated vs. the run.  The results are great as they have averaged 1.26 ypc more than opposing rush defenses are allowing.  I take the Air Force game out because the service academies always do well stopping the run.  Army had a terrible run defense last year and held Navy in check. 

Let’s take a look at other deciding factors in this one.  Navy penalized 4.1 times less per game than Memphis.  They are roughly 10% better on third down offense.  Memphis has been very good on third down defense and both teams are very similar in the red zone on offense and defense although Navy has gotten there more, and Memphis has allowed opponents to get there more.

The bottom line is Navy was able to rattle Greg Ward.  Maybe they gave up 40 points, but they forced 2 turnovers which is huge.  I think Riley Ferguson is really going to have to play a perfect game in this one.  Navy’s defense has holes in the secondary, but Memphis is not protecting their QB. Ranking 98th in the country in protection they have turned the ball over 11 times in 6 games.  I expect that to be the deciding factor.  Give me Navy with the outright upset.

TCU +6.5 5.5% NCAAF POD – buy the hook if you want, but I think TCU wins outright +210 for another 1%

I’m all over TCU and I am even comfortable with them at +6 as I think they may even get the outright upset.  Gary Paterson is 12-1 straight up, and 13-0 ATS after a bye week.  The key difference for them after a bye week is defense.  They allowed just 10 points and a 41% completion rate to West Virginia last year following their bye week in the 40-10 victory.  This TCU team is flying under the radar right now in my opinion.  West Virginia is getting far too much credit for their win against Texas Tech.  Patrick Maholmes is definitely injured and that’s a big reason why they held them to 17 points.  The week before they were lucky to beat Kansas State at home.  Now in comes another great coach and I think TCU could pull the upset.

TCU getting a ton of value here because the last memory everyone has of them is they nearly lost to Kansas.  They struggled last year against Kansas (winning 23-17) and the following week they went on the road to face Oklahoma and lost by 1 point without their star QB and WR.  The game against Kansas really does not concern me here.  TCU is the first team that West Virginia has faced with an offense that can beat you running the ball and passing the ball. Kenny Hill gets plenty of shit, but he’s got 2,142 yards passing in 6 games already and he’s also a threat to run.  West Virginia’s defense has shown vulnerabilities vs. the run this year as well as the pass.  People forget this team replaced 9 defensive starters when the season began.  They haven’t faced any dominating offenses in my opinion and their own offense is nothing to get excited about.

West Virginia’s key last year in their wins vs. losses was Skyler Howard.  In wins they had a 153 QB rating and in losses a 102 QB rating.  Howard has not impressed me he has 3 TD and 3 INT’s vs. FBS opponents this year.  He looked great against Youngstown State.  TCU can bring a pass rush like nobody else he’s seen this year.  TCU ranks 22nd in sack %, and they haven’t faced a top 60 unit.  This defense held him to 41% completion rating and 160 yards passing with a 78 QB rating (a season low).  Howard has faced some of the worst pass defenses in the nation.  TCU is better than their ranking shows, they have a good pass rush, and they have had to face some pretty elite passing offenses in Arkansas and Oklahoma whom in my opinion are both top 25 teams.  At the end of the day without factoring in strength of schedule I have this game as a 29-28 in favor for West Virginia.  I think TCU has an excellent shot at pulling the upset even though they are on the road.  They have an edge in coaching and have owned this match up and off a bye you can’t go wrong backing Gary Paterson. West Virginia often gets inflated lines after they look good and they are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 games following a game of 450 + total yards in their previous game.

Colorado +8 Teaser w/ LSU -0.5 4.4% play

LSU

Should be able to run the ball in this game.  Ole Miss has really struggled to stop the run and LSU will be very fresh in their running game this week as they ran the ball only 24 times in their easy win against Southern Miss.  Ole Miss probably the best 3 loss team in the nation, but having allowed 56.34 yards per carry in conference play does not look good for them on the road in a night game against LSU.

LSU’s defensive strength is also their pass defense.  Chad Kelly has been able to perform well against top defenses, but I think this may be asking too much in a road game at night in Death Valley.  LSU could be peaking ahead to Alabama, but they have a bye in between to make sure they are not.  I expect another complete game just like we have seen in back to back weeks under Ed Orgeron who was the head coach at Ole Miss once upon a time ago.  LSU held Kelly in check last year on the road, but they lost 17-38 and certainly want revenge.  LSU turned the ball over 3 times in that game and I don’t expect that to happen.  Ole Miss lost a ton of play makers from a year ago and certainly are not the same team.  LSU’s pass defense has allowed 3 passing TD’s and 4 INT’s.  This is also a tough spot for Ole miss playing in back to back road games for the first time since 2013.

Colorado..

Stanford won last week against Notre Dame and were lucky to do so.  This Stanford team just is not very good.  We have seen what teams have done the week after getting a “big win” against Notre Dame.  Stanford’s defense is not as good and their offense is not as good with or without Christian McCaffrey who will likely play in this game.  McCaffrey is not getting as many touches and should be fresh for this game, but Buffalo’s defense is much improved since the last time these two met.

I really like what Jim Leavitt has done he has this defense playing extremely well.  In 2014 before Leavitt came over to be the defensive coordinator Colorado gave up 39 points per game, in conference play they allowed 31 TD’s and 1 INT that year.  In his first year they made a dramatic improvement allowing 27.5 points per game.  Their pass defense also improved to 19 TD’s allowed and 7 INT in conference play.  This year they are allowing 20 points per game, and their pass defense through 4 conference games is allowing 53.3% completions 6 TD’s and 5 INT’s.  Their run defense also allowing less than 4 yards per carry.  The only opponents that have put up points on this defense are Michigan and Oregon who are in the top 25 for offenses and have a balanced approach.  Stanford is very much one dimensional, easy to prepare for and ranked 94th in the S&P offensive ratings. Stanford is -4 in TO margin this year and Colorado has forced a TO in 20 straight games.

On the flip side you have Stanford whose defense has started to show signs of struggling.  They struggle against top offenses that can beat you with the running and passing game and that’s what Colorado has proven that they can do.  Stanford gave up 42 points to Washington State who does not grade as high as Colorado, but does have a good offense running and passing.  Washington also scored 44 on this defense and have a good running and passing game.  Colorado ranks 27th and 1st in the S&P rankings for running and throwing.  They hung with Michigan on the road before they lost their QB Sefo Liufau, but he’s back and the senior is ready to give Stanford a tough game on the road.

Hawaii +17 3.3% PLAY

To me this is far too many points to be giving to Air Force.  I have thi game as a 36-27 game on neutral field and Hawaii has played extremely well since switching the offense over to Dru Brown in the last 2.5 games.  He has completed 63.9% of his passes for 6 TD and 1 INT.  The running game with Brown has also gotten better averaging 239 yards per game over their last 3 games.  Overall Hawaii is much improved this season.  They were 6.5 point under dogs at home last year and lost 58-7 to Air Force.  I think Air Force is a bit down this year and I think Hawaii is a bit better.  I have this game being off by 6 points and that’s enough for me to be a buyer on the Warriors.

It’s also worth noting that Air Force who is 80th in plays per game, Hawaii 109th in plays per game should keep the total down giving us even better value on the large dog.  Air Force has been really good on defense, but Hawaii is top 50 in points per play.  Air Force has given up 80 points combined in their last two games.  Hawaii can pick up yards in the passing game and the running game.  Air force will get their yardage there is no doubt about it, but I like a couple of x factors in this game.

Air Force has not been as good in the red zone.  Just 62.5% red zone TD%, and 75% allowed on defense compare that with Hawaii who comes in at 78%, and 57% on defense.  Both teams have had similar strength of schedules although I would argue Hawaii’s has been much more challenging with Arizona, California, and Michigan along with tough traveling spots.  Air Force played Navy and that’s about it.  Oh, Air Force who is -1 TO margin has been extremely lucky too recovering 73% of fumbles in games played.  That can’t possibly continue. 

Oregon +102 2.5% PLAY

Listen both of these teams are bad on defense and I think Oregon’s head coach is fired at the end of the year.  However when you really look at who they have played Oregon has faced the far tougher schedule.  They have played arguably the top 3 teams in the PAC 12 + one of the top teams in the Big Ten.  California has played Hawaii, they gave up a ton of points and yards to Oregon State.  I think Oregon will be able to run the ball like crazy here tonight and they have the best player on the field in Royce Freeman.  Oregon must continue to hand the ball off in my opinion they are not running it enough we will see if that changes.

Oregon’s top 4 opponents are all in the top 50 in offense and defense.  Meaning they are all balanced teams.  That’s what Oregon has had to contest with.  Cal has faced just 1 team in the top 50 in defense and they have not faced the level of competition of offenses that Oregon has.  Some of the stats are misleading for that reason.

The bottom line is Cal is 124th s. the run, and Oregon is 8th running the ball and that’s what you need in order to win on the road.  Oregon is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 off a bye, and 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 in October.  They lost huge last time out against Washington, but Stanford got crushed by Washington too.  Oregon makes a switch at QB, but that does not concern me against Cal.  Cal has some key injuries on both side of the ball including their between the tackles RB Vic Enwere being out which could hurt them in the red zone.  Cal already struggling to scored TD’s down there with a 56% TD rate compare that with Oregon’s 80.77% rate and there is your ball game.

Davis Webb, their QB and Chad Hansen their top WR also got hurt in their last game they will play tonight, but I’d rather back a team in a close game that is healthier than this.  They are also hurt up the middle on defense and lack depth at LB.  They are missing two DT’s and two Safeties.  We will see I may have to eat my own words, but I think there is a lot of line value with Oregon here against Cal, a team that was not supposed to be good this year.  Public perception is that they are good because they are putting up a ton of points, but they just lost to Oregon State. 

BYU +7 3.3% PLAY

I like the Cougars here tonight in what should be a very competitive game.  I think the home field advantage for Boise is not as strong as it used to be and they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.  BYU 13-6 ATS in their last 19 vs. the Mountain West.  BYU has had a very challenging schedule and are looking forward to their bye, but they do have an extra day of rest and prep. Compared to Boise State who played Saturday.

Actually that’s really big because Boise State relies heavily on running back Jeremy McNichols and he just carried the ball 40 times on Saturday.  The last time he carried the ball 30+ times he struggled against New Mexico’s run defense.  I do see Boise chucking the ball around a lot tonight, but BYU’s pass defense has been very good this year with an interception in every game.  Brett Rypien has played well, but the two times he faced good defenses in the top 30 he threw 2 TD’s to 3 INT’s.  Last year against BYU he had 1 TD and 3 INT’s.  The strength of schedule is a key factor here when you look at the fact that Boise has not faced a tough schedule by any means 72nd ranking compared to 24th.

BYU’s key here is to run the ball with Jamal Williams come up with 3rd and short and they will wear down opposing defenses.  Their offensive line has gained an average 20lbs in average weight since last year and it’s definitely showing in their running style.  In 4th quarters and beyond they are +45 points while Boise has really struggled late in games.  So the question is can BYU run the ball?  I think they can when looking at Boise’s 45th ranking in run defense they just got done allowing 566 yards rushing in their last 2 games.  Jamal Williams and the occasional run by Taysom Hill will be hard for them to stop.  This is a completely different team than last year that Boise State is facing.  Thus harder to prepare for.  BYU is bigger and stronger on both sides of the line and I think the biggest difference is the strength of this running game.

The concern for me here is BYU’s secondary, but Boise also has holes in their secondary and I think it helps that Boise State won’t have as much balance with McNichols not able to run the ball 30+ times in this game.  BYU is also very good at stopping the run since they got their star LB back and they have been able to force turnovers in the passing game.  BYU also has an edge on special teams ranking 27th compared to Boise who ranks 90th.  That could be worth a few points in tonight’s game.  BYU in their 3 losses to UCLA, Utah, and West Virginia have lost by a combined score of 7 points.  That tells me this coaching staff is very good they are able to look at an opposing team’s strengths and weaknesses and come up with a very good game plan.  They have faced a lot of good teams this year who vary in play style.  I don’t think Boise State scares them and I think they could come out of this with an upset win.

6 Point Teaser - Western Kentucky +8.5 / Temple +10 3.3% play

Western Kentucky +8.5

This team still has a lot to prove, but overall I see them pretty even with Middle Tennessee.  Both of these teams are very very similar as the both love to pass the ball, and both defenses struggle to stop the pass.  Mike White is a bit more accurate and has better receiving weapons than Stockstill from Middle Tennessee.  However, the pass defense from Middle Tennessee is a bit better, but certainly not by much.  As far as balance goes I have Middle Tennessee worse in run defense and rushing offense while Western Kentucky has proven they can do both and they have certainly done all of this with a tougher schedule having to play Alabama.  In their two common opponent games the results were very very similar from a yards per play perspective.  Overall when I look at everything my math has this game 32-33 in favor of Middle Tennessee.  Both teams with extra time to prepare here and I’ll go with the better QB with the better weapons.  Mike White has two senior WR’s in Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris who will play at the next level.  Brent Stockstill is passing the ball to freshman and sophomore wide receivers along with his RB. 

Temple +10

At 10 points I believe we are getting very good line value here.  Temple is as healthy as they have been all year and have had some extra time to prepare for this one.  They do have a challenge stopping Central Florida’s rushing attack, but this is a team that likes to create havoc in the front 7 and I think they can get off the field on third down.  Temple also extremely misleading final in their last game against Memphis where they outgained them by 204 yards with 531 total yards of offense.  Central Florida’s pass defense definitely has holes as we saw against East Carolina and Michigan.

Central Florida is much improved this year, but this line opened as a pk and has moved to 4.  I will take the extra value moving this to 10 points giving us nearly 10 points of value based on where the oddsmakers opened the line.  Both teams very good in red zone defense.  Temple is breaking in a new kicker which would normally make me worried, but Matt Rhule said he has an NFL leg.  Temple will slow this game down and grind it out while Central Florida will try to play quick, but I believe Temple has the ability to disrupt that rhythm and will do so here today.

Arkansas +7.5 3.3% play 

I have backed Arkansas against Alabama and Texas A&M, two similar teams in caliber to Ole Miss.  We lost both of those games easily, but watching both of them you felt like Arkansas was a very good team.  Their 8 turnovers in key situations were the reasons they lost by double digits.  The pass rush from Alabama and Texas A&M is elite and that's what created issues for Austin Allen.  Allen won't have that problem here today against Ole Miss ranked 85th in pass rush.  Actually 21 points came off turnovers for Arkansas in the Alabama game and against the Aggies they had several opportunities in the red zone where they came away with nothing.  Actually 7 trips into the red zone and they came away with 24 points.

Ole Miss obviously wants this game for what happened to them losing in OT last year, but that's easier said than done.  First of all this is their first road game and the things that have hurt Arkansas in the first two games are not strengths of Ole Miss who ranks 85th in pass rush.  They have 9 sacks on the year, their red zone defense is not elite allowing 63.64% TD's.  Alabama was allowing 30%, Aggies at 42.31%.  They also have to get off the field on third down.  Ole Miss just 42% conversions on third down.  They have struggled against teams that can run the ball which really isn't what Ole Miss wants to do.  I think Arkansas can win the turnover battle here as well as Ole Miss has forced just 8 turnovers and are -4 on the road which was a neutral site game against Florida State.  This is a true road game and Arkansas wants this game in the worst way.

Nebraska -3 5.5% play

Thanks for the line movement here.  Mike Riley following a bye week during the regular season going back to 2003 with Oregon State is 16-8 ATS and has had many major upsets as a big dog.  He’s not an underdog in this game, but I really don’t see or understand the spread in this game.  Indiana played well at Ohio State, but that win over Michigan State at home looks a lot worse after Michigan State got trucked by BYU last week in embarrassing fashion.  I have this game at 31-22 in favor of Nebraska and that does not factor in the match up advantages and extra preparation they have going into this game.

Both teams wants to establish the run and on the surface it looks like Indiana is better at stopping the run where Nebraska has had troubles, but in reality that’s not true.  Nebraska’s game against Oregon has really inflated some of their defensive rankings.  Nebraska has held everyone else in check who doesn’t have a running QB.  As Oregon’s QB Dakota Prukop had 20 rushes for 97 yards in that game.  Indiana’s Richard Lagow has -31 yards on the season.  Nebraska’s pass defense is also very solid so far this year 3TD’s and 9 interceptions.

For Nebraska I think they can run the ball in this game.  Armstrong is having a very good year passing the ball and not turning it over like he has in the past and he’s got 14 total touch downs with 2 interceptions.  5 of those TD’s have come on the ground has he has 293 yards rushing.  That can be a real problem for Indiana’s defense which struggled against JT Barret a week ago who had 137 yards rushing against them.  Armstrong in reality is very similar to Barret in a lot of ways, but probably has a bigger arm.  Nebraska probably a little more aggressive in down the field passes which should open things up for the Huskers in this one.

Nebraska advantage in the turnover margin which is something I definitely look at despite the bad luck we have had.  Indiana has been lucky recovering fumbles at 61.5%, but that certainly is due to change.  Their QB Lagow has already thrown 7 interceptions and I can’t see how Nebraska won’t have 1 or 2 in this game.  They are a ball hawking defense that has had time to study tendencies of this QB and offense.  Nebraska also has advantages in 3rd down offense and defense, and red zone offense and defense, penalties, net tackles for loss at +7 compared to -7, and sacks +8 to -1.  Indiana also has not been great with their place kicker.  All in all Nebraska a ton to play for here.  Indiana getting too much credit for how they beat Michigan State and played within the number against Ohio State.  Nebraska has outscored opponents 78-6 in the 4th quarter.  I expect them to get off to a fast start in this game off the bye as Indiana has played 3 physical teams in a row.

North Carolina +7.5 1.1% Free Play (6-1 ATS on Free Plays This year)

This seems like a value spot for the Tarheels who looked bad last week.  The weather had a lot to do with it also I have felt since the Tennessee game that Virginia Tech was under rated.  We had the Hokies as our biggest play last weekend and it easily cashed.  It was just a bad match up.  What I like this week is Mitch Tribusky should bounce back against Miami's secondary which has yet to be tested.

Miami's secondary has faced passing offenses ranked 122, 72, 74, 46th which just simply does not impress me.  Francois was able to carve up this secondary in the second half and I think Tribusky and his receiving weapons will have a great game here.

With that said this game should feature limited possessions when you factor in Miami is dead last with 59 plays per game and North Carolina is 115th.  I do think Miami is a better team overall, but there simply won't be enough plays to showcase this.  Miami also will keep it on the ground in my opinion keeping this game down in scoring.  I have the game at 23-28 in favor of Miami, but I factor in the extra points we get for the final last week for North Carolina.  Miami off their loss to Florida State has typically struggled.  

They lost in devastating fashion on a missed extra point.  Despite leading 13-0 int hat game they were actually out gained 408 to 276 yards.  Florida State's defense which was unable to make second half adjustments against a ton of teams was able to do so in the second half a week ago against Miami.  There is just too much value here with the points and the dog is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings. 

6 Point Teaser - Western Kentucky +8.5 / Temple +10 3.3% play

Western Kentucky +8.5

This team still has a lot to prove, but overall I see them pretty even with Middle Tennessee.  Both of these teams are very very similar as the both love to pass the ball, and both defenses struggle to stop the pass.  Mike White is a bit more accurate and has better receiving weapons than Stockstill from Middle Tennessee.  However, the pass defense from Middle Tennessee is a bit better, but certainly not by much.  As far as balance goes I have Middle Tennessee worse in run defense and rushing offense while Western Kentucky has proven they can do both and they have certainly done all of this with a tougher schedule having to play Alabama.  In their two common opponent games the results were very very similar from a yards per play perspective.  Overall when I look at everything my math has this game 32-33 in favor of Middle Tennessee.  Both teams with extra time to prepare here and I’ll go with the better QB with the better weapons.  Mike White has two senior WR’s in Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris who will play at the next level.  Brent Stockstill is passing the ball to freshman and sophomore wide receivers along with his RB. 

Temple +10

At 10 points I believe we are getting very good line value here.  Temple is as healthy as they have been all year and have had some extra time to prepare for this one.  They do have a challenge stopping Central Florida’s rushing attack, but this is a team that likes to create havoc in the front 7 and I think they can get off the field on third down.  Temple also extremely misleading final in their last game against Memphis where they outgained them by 204 yards with 531 total yards of offense.  Central Florida’s pass defense definitely has holes as we saw against East Carolina and Michigan.

Central Florida is much improved this year, but this line opened as a pk and has moved to 4.  I will take the extra value moving this to 10 points giving us nearly 10 points of value based on where the oddsmakers opened the line.  Both teams very good in red zone defense.  Temple is breaking in a new kicker which would normally make me worried, but Matt Rhule said he has an NFL leg.  Temple will slow this game down and grind it out while Central Florida will try to play quick, but I believe Temple has the ability to disrupt that rhythm and will do so here today.

Kansas State +10.5 2.2%

I like Kansas State here as I think they are the better overall team and laying double digits to an Oklahoma team that continues to get credit for whatever reason.  They have their work cut out against Kansas State’s defense as this is the third time they are facing a top 25 defense.  The other two times they scored 23 and 24 points and lost both games.  I actually have this game more like Oklahoma -4.5 here.

Bill Snyder an excellent coach and when his team is a double digit road dog they are 8-0 ATS in their last 8.  A lot of people are going to remember the 55-0 loss last year, but these are two different teams in my opinion at this point.  Kansas State is a much better team as we have already seen this year.  They have a QB that can run it and that takes a lot of pressure off this offense.  That’s something they did not have a year ago and now Jesse Ertz is playing very well rushing over 5 yards per carry.  It’s also worth noting that Oklahoma is -6 turnover margin while Kansas State really protects the ball and is +6 on the season.

Mississippi State +7.5 3.3% PLAY

I faded BYU last week, and I backed Mississippi State last week and lost both games, but I feel good about the value we are getting in this match up.  First of all BYU ran all over Michigan State at least that is what the headlines say and now everyone knows about Jamal Williams, but this is still a one dimensional offense that should not be laying over a TD at home.  Michigan State has been decimated by injuries and I was naive to think Mark Dantonio would have answers a week ago for all of that.  Miss State on the other hand ran into an Auburn team obviously that has the talent to contend for a national title, and it seems like it may be coming together for them especially with their defensive talent.  BYU has had all kinds of issues on defense and what really makes me like this match up is they will give up some points here.

BYU has not faced a running QB all year.  They missed out on Arizona's Dawkins.  Fitzgerald also an under rated passer to this point in my opinion and I think he will connect on some passes to Fred Ross that help put them in position to steal one here.  They certainly need it if they want to go to a bowl game.  There is also a huge difference in Michigan State trying to run the ball and Miss State who ranks 23rd in yards per carry while the Spartans rank 83rd.  BYU has faced some bad running offenses along the way and have given up over 4 yards per carry to 4 of 6 of them.  The last time they came off a road game they lost to UCLA despite holding them to 50 yards rushing.  Their offense was not the same rushing for just 23 yards in that game.

Speaking of rushing the ball that's the key to BYU's one dimensional offense behind RB Jamal Williams who is a star.  Taysom Hill is no longer the same guy and Ty Detmer does not want him running if they can help it, but this team is very different form a few years ago.  They no longer run tempo and they are establishing an identity of a run first offense.  Their 4 home games this season have been decided by 10 points in total.  They play a lot of close games.  It just so happens they ran away with the game against Michigan State last week.  I don't see that happening here against Miss state, who you could argue has the best run defense they have faced all year.  Miss State ranks 32nd in yards per carry allowed.  They have had weak moments, but when they faced good running teams like LSU they held them on the road 1.66 yards below their season average.  Auburn sort of grinded it away on them but they still held Auburn .73 yards under their season average.  BYU has faced many bad run defenses this year and were lucky enough to face Michigan State without a lot of their defense.  I just think we are getting too much value in this game with teams looking like they are going in opposite directions.  

I think Miss State steps up and has themselves in position to win this game late with the ball in Nick Fitzgeralds hands.  It also gives me confidence that they have turned the ball over just 6 times this year.  They are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and BYU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. SEC foe. 

South Carolina +7 5.5 %NCAAF POD

This game takes place on Sunday and will be a top play for me.  I really like South Carolina after being on Georgia a week ago at home against Tennessee as our top play.  Georgia struggled big time on the road this year beating Missouri luckily, and getting blown out at Ole Miss.  Now their routines are a bit messed up because of the schedule change and they are coming off a devastating season changing loss to Tennessee where their were plenty of mental break downs.  Bettors look at that score and see Georgia being competitive against a top 10 team, but Tennessee was decimated by injuries on their defense and benched their best RB in that game. 

I’m also not impressed with how Kirby Smart handled that game in the 4th quarter.  Not that Will Muschamp is a great coach or anything, but at least I know he’s going to have his team defensively prepared.  I’ll back a solid defense any day of the week at home against an offense that does not blow you away and you are giving me 7 points. 

I also really do not understand the notion that Georgia will dominate in the trenches as I have read by some Georgia bloggers or Georgia fans.  They can’t protect their QB ranking 105th in protection rate, and they are 114th at getting to the QB.  The offensive line has really struggled this season.  I get Nick Chubb is coming back, but he’s not 100%, and the run defenses this team has faced have been awful.  They’ve faced an FCS opponent, 107th, 93rd, 104th, and then Tennessee who ranks 43rd in run defense, but was missing 2 LB’s and their best player in the secondary.  On the flip side South Carolina has struggled at times on defense, but have faced 3 top 50 rushing offenses for an average rank of 54.4.  I thought they did a pretty good job against A&M who ranks 2nd in YPC holding them under their season average and they have a running QB who had 84 yards rushing.  The Gamecocks certainly do not need to worry about Jacob Eason taking off and running here.

On the flip side Georgia has not stopped the run they rank 73rd so where is the advantage?  Especially when you consider they have faced an average rushing offense ranked 64.75 + an FCS foe.  That’s much higher than the strength of schedule South Carolina faced of 54.4.  South Carolina will mix in two QB’s in this one and I think they can run the ball better than they have going up against this defense.  So far they have faced 2 top 50 running defenses and that has been the reason they have struggled to run the ball at times.  Being at home against a run defense that has holes should allow South Carolina to run.  After all they have faced 5 FBS opponents with an average run defense of 63.2 compared to Georgia’s 86.75.

Flip over to the passing game and there is no doubt Georgia has the edge in terms of talent.  Jacob Eason could be a star in this league, but they certainly do not trust him and he is prone to make mistakes.  South Carolina has a better pass defense than Georgia to this point.  Allowing 4 passing TD’s and 5 Interceptions and just 5.9 yards per attempt.  South Carolina should take some deep shots if they are smart as Georgia has had all kinds of mental break downs in their secondary.  The Gamecocks get back 2 WR that were out last week in Deebo Samuel and Bryan Edwards to play critical roles.  South Carolina should also have the time to throw and when they have SR. QB Perry Orth in there I give them a small edge. 

X-factor if you want to call it that.  South Carolina is very tough to score on in the red zone.  Allowing 38% TD rate when teams get there compared to Georgia’s 70%.  I think Georgia will have a hard time scoring points to be honest and they don’t trust their kicker who is 4-9 this year.  It was the reason we almost lost ATS last week. 

Arkansas +14 2.2% Play

We are 5-1 ATS on free selections this year.

I like the Razorbacks as they were my POD a couple weeks ago against Texas A&M and really looked good early in that game.  Now going back home to face Alabama they have an exciting shot to shock the college football world.  I would not be shocked if they pull it off to be honest, because this team has played very well against Alabama the last two years under Bielema.  The one thing keeping this from a premium selection is the run defense of Arkansas this year has had some issues, but the offense is going to be what keeps them in this game anyway.

Austin Allen has been great this year 12 TD’s and 2 INT’s they have size and athleticism at WR and TE.  They get Keon Hatcher back who left the A&M game which was a huge key in my opinion.  Arkansas will try to run the ball and slow this game down big time which honestly gives tremendous value to a 14 point home dog with limited possessions and Arkansas is a team that’s not really built to come back with their pass protection, but I think they will be a bit better at home if they get down big in this game I would be surprised.  Defensively the last two years they have held Alabama to 66 yards and 134 yards rushing.  Alabama has shown issues running the ball at time this year against Western Kentucky and Kentucky with less than 200 yards.  If Arkansas can hold them under 150 yards rushing like they have the last two years.  They will win this game outright!

Alabama has never laid double digits on the road against a ranked opponent under Nick Saban.  The average spread is around 4.5 points typically with an average win of 8 points so I really like the value we get here.  Also Arkansas off a game where their offense looked in synch scoring 42+ points albeit against Alcorn State.  Arkansas 40-20 ATS in their last 60 following a 42+ point effort on offense in their previous game.  Take the Razorbacks here!

Kansas State -1.5 Teaser with Stanford -1  2.2% Teaser

I like Kansas State this week for a few different reasons.  For one they blew a 16-3 lead at West Virginia a week ago.  Bill Snyder, a legendary head coach is 15-2-1 ATS off a loss and going back home will be just what he needs.  They also lost last year against Texas Tech and the previous 4 match ups they went 4-0 ATS against Texas Tech covering the spread by 19 points per game.  Kansas State is strong again on defense this year and have certainly been tested with two challenging road games against Stanford and West Virginia where the defense played very well.  Now back at home Kansas State can play the game they want, but will have their hands full against a Texas Tech team that loves to put points up.

Texas Tech however without their star  QB likely who has a bad shoulder not good for a team that passes 63% of the time.  Nick Shimonek comes in and has been great, but that was against Kansas and Stephen F Austin.  Kansas State is allowing less than 30% conversions on third downs and has only allowed 2 passing TD’s all year.  Kansas State also the type of team that needs to be able to run the ball and control the game to win.  That’s exactly what they’ll be able to do here.  Texas Tech gave up 562 yards rushing and 10 rushing TD’s to average opponents in Arizona State (80th in rushing ypc), and LA Tech, a team that prefers to pass the ball.  This is a different Kansas State team than last year for Snyder and they are 100% healthy coming into this game.  Last year Snyder did not have as many juco guys and a very young team this year he gets a couple key guys and I think the offense is much improved in the backfield. The transfer Byron Pringle also adding a deep threat to the passing game.

Stanford -1 – We are getting 5.5 points already in the line move and now I’ll grab another 6 points with outstanding value.  Washington State has obviously looked great this year and gave Stanford some issues last year nearly pulling the upset, but that was at home.  Stanford has an extra day to prepare for this one which should be huge.  They come off the huge loss against Washington and are 13-1 since 2010 when coming off a loss 8-1 ATS off a straight up loss the last 4 seasons alone.

Stanford was dominated at the line of scrimmage last week and managed 0.97 yards per carry despite 30 carries they had 29 yards.  We all know the key here for Stanford they need to run the ball. At Washington State a year ago they had no trouble with 226 yards on 40 carries for a 5.65 ypc.  Washington State allowed Oregon to run for 5.78 ypc, and I think Washington State will have to score TD’s in the red zone to win this game.  I don’t think they can do it.  Stanford held them to 33% last year, and this year they held both USC and Kansas State, and UCLA to 33%. 

Under 52 Vanderbilt/Kentucky 3.3% play

We have a ton of line value in this one I think on the under with two underperforming offenses who like to run the ball and rank among the slowest paced offenses in the country.  These teams play even more vanilla in conference play especially this year, but Kentucky 121st in pace compared to Vanderbilt who is 100th in pace.  Both like to run the ball 56% of the time so we are looking at limited possessions for two very bad offenses that haven’t scored more than 17 points in 5 conference games combined.  Actually Vanderbilt is under the total 51-23-1 in their last 75 conference games, but this is a high total because of the high scoring games these two teams have played in non-conference action.  Vanderbilt 61 vs. Western Kentucky, 71 vs. MTSU and Kentucky 104 vs. New Mexico State, and 69 vs. Southern Miss.  Three of those 4 teams are in the top 40 in pace, and the team that’s not is Western Kentucky who loves to throw the ball a ton.  Actually 3 of those 4 teams were in the top 25 in passing play %.  That’s not the fact here with Kentucky 61.83% run, Vanderbilt 56%, and they are two of the slowest teams in pace as we mentioned.  Also conference game here both coaches need a win to get off the hot seat so I don’t see them doing anything crazy in this game.

Texas A&M -1 / Michigan State pk 4.4% Teaser

You may want to test your sportsbook here.  Mine gave me better odds on parlaying the money line for these two games.

Let’s start with Texas A&M as many of you know I have not been high on Tennessee.  Overall I have great respect for what Josh Dobbs is doing here, but this team and the coaching staff is overrated and is extremely lucky to be 5-0 at this point.  It’s not even just the come backs or the hail mary’s, but the fact that they have recovered 76% of the fumbles in their games.  There have been a lot of them too.  We saw that stat regress to the mean last Saturday in our POD cover on Georgia +3.5!  Josh Dobbs said after the game that he felt everything in that game.  I’m sensing a huge hangover spot for the Volunteers with Alabama on deck.

I’m not just relying on luck here.  I think A&M has a very strong home field advantage.  The SEC East is not nearly as strong as the West right now.  A&M seemed to have been resting guys last week holding 3 offensive starters out for their game at South Carolina.  That game very misleading when you take out 3 offensive starters.  Speedy Noil, Ricky Seals-Jones and OT Jermane Eluemunor all should play this week.  I’d be shocked if they didn’t.  The same should be true for Myles Garret on the defensive side of the ball.  Tennessee has their own issues missing their best defensive player in Cameron Sutton out until November.  Reeves-Maybin and Kirkland also questionable here.  It’s really showed because anytime a team passes on this defense they are successful.  From Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia at times.  They have also shown weaknesses vs. the run in their first road game against Georgia.  They will definitely have issues against A&M as they are facing the most balanced offense all year. 

A&M will throw and pass and they do both very well.  Behind Trevor Knight the offense has been very good.  Tennessee has faced the following offenses from a YPP perspective – 82nd, 38th, 94th, 64th, and 90th.  A&M is 24th and should get up early in this game.  If that happens the pass rush of A&M will take this game over especially at home.  Tennessee already 84th at protecting Dobbs who has done a great job this year, but I expect the miracles to end this week.

Michigan State – Okay the Spartans had their own issues last week as they ruined our run on teasers.  We are now 24-6 on teasers since the 2014 season.  I’m very confident that they rebound here against BYU.  Mark Dantonio is 14-3 since 2010 following a SU loss.  I think this game is a bit of a mismatch for BYU personally.  I like the fact they put up 55 points on Toledo as Jamal Williams looked amazing in that game.  Michigan State has some holes to plug on the defensive line and Malike McDowell will miss the first half, but they know how to stop the run.  They are 17th vs. the run this season.  BYU has faced running defenses ranked 76th, 74th, 86th, 71st, and 101st.  This is a step up in class on the road against a Michigan State team that has to be a bit angry here.  The good news is they can stack the box and play man to man on the outside, because Tasom Hill can’t pass. He’s completing 59.6% of his passes, but for just 6.5 yards per attempt.  He had a nice deep pass last week to start the game, but other than that he’s mostly inaccurate down the field.  That should give Dantonio plenty of confidence to stack the box and get three and outs.

On the flip side I actually like Michigan State’s offense here.  BYU made Logan Woodside look like the next Tom Brady a week ago.  They rank 100th in yards per play allowed and 104th in opposing QB rating.  Tyler O’Connor getting a lot of crap this week and the media is asking his head coach if they are going to replace him.  Dantonio says no, and I agree as I have seen the good O’connor.  The good news is he knows this offense, he’s a senior.  He’s playing behind a veteran offensive line, and he’s got two capable running backs.  The receivers are only getting better in RJ Shelton and Donnie Corley.  Corley is looking like a legit future star in this league.  O’Connor also went up against some very tough pass defenses.  Wisconsin ranks 19th in opposing QB rating, and Indiana also checks in at 31st.  BYU has actually been worse than Notre Dame which is hard to believe. 

Texas A&M -1 / Michigan State pk 4.4% Teaser

You may want to test your sportsbook here.  Mine gave me better odds on parlaying the money line for these two games.

Let’s start with Texas A&M as many of you know I have not been high on Tennessee.  Overall I have great respect for what Josh Dobbs is doing here, but this team and the coaching staff is overrated and is extremely lucky to be 5-0 at this point.  It’s not even just the come backs or the hail mary’s, but the fact that they have recovered 76% of the fumbles in their games.  There have been a lot of them too.  We saw that stat regress to the mean last Saturday in our POD cover on Georgia +3.5!  Josh Dobbs said after the game that he felt everything in that game.  I’m sensing a huge hangover spot for the Volunteers with Alabama on deck.

I’m not just relying on luck here.  I think A&M has a very strong home field advantage.  The SEC East is not nearly as strong as the West right now.  A&M seemed to have been resting guys last week holding 3 offensive starters out for their game at South Carolina.  That game very misleading when you take out 3 offensive starters.  Speedy Noil, Ricky Seals-Jones and OT Jermane Eluemunor all should play this week.  I’d be shocked if they didn’t.  The same should be true for Myles Garret on the defensive side of the ball.  Tennessee has their own issues missing their best defensive player in Cameron Sutton out until November.  Reeves-Maybin and Kirkland also questionable here.  It’s really showed because anytime a team passes on this defense they are successful.  From Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia at times.  They have also shown weaknesses vs. the run in their first road game against Georgia.  They will definitely have issues against A&M as they are facing the most balanced offense all year. 

A&M will throw and pass and they do both very well.  Behind Trevor Knight the offense has been very good.  Tennessee has faced the following offenses from a YPP perspective – 82nd, 38th, 94th, 64th, and 90th.  A&M is 24th and should get up early in this game.  If that happens the pass rush of A&M will take this game over especially at home.  Tennessee already 84th at protecting Dobbs who has done a great job this year, but I expect the miracles to end this week.

Michigan State – Okay the Spartans had their own issues last week as they ruined our run on teasers.  We are now 24-6 on teasers since the 2014 season.  I’m very confident that they rebound here against BYU.  Mark Dantonio is 14-3 since 2010 following a SU loss.  I think this game is a bit of a mismatch for BYU personally.  I like the fact they put up 55 points on Toledo as Jamal Williams looked amazing in that game.  Michigan State has some holes to plug on the defensive line and Malike McDowell will miss the first half, but they know how to stop the run.  They are 17th vs. the run this season.  BYU has faced running defenses ranked 76th, 74th, 86th, 71st, and 101st.  This is a step up in class on the road against a Michigan State team that has to be a bit angry here.  The good news is they can stack the box and play man to man on the outside, because Tasom Hill can’t pass. He’s completing 59.6% of his passes, but for just 6.5 yards per attempt.  He had a nice deep pass last week to start the game, but other than that he’s mostly inaccurate down the field.  That should give Dantonio plenty of confidence to stack the box and get three and outs.

On the flip side I actually like Michigan State’s offense here.  BYU made Logan Woodside look like the next Tom Brady a week ago.  They rank 100th in yards per play allowed and 104th in opposing QB rating.  Tyler O’Connor getting a lot of crap this week and the media is asking his head coach if they are going to replace him.  Dantonio says no, and I agree as I have seen the good O’connor.  The good news is he knows this offense, he’s a senior.  He’s playing behind a veteran offensive line, and he’s got two capable running backs.  The receivers are only getting better in RJ Shelton and Donnie Corley.  Corley is looking like a legit future star in this league.  O’Connor also went up against some very tough pass defenses.  Wisconsin ranks 19th in opposing QB rating, and Indiana also checks in at 31st.  BYU has actually been worse than Notre Dame which is hard to believe. 

Virginia Tech +1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

The weather is critical here, but looks like it will be alright for the game to happen with 15mph winds and some rain.  Rain, no rain, wind no wind I think the Hokies are the better team here.  There lone loss against Tennessee was extremely misleading and I actually think the forecast benefits them in this game.

Virginia Tech likes to run the ball 63% of the time, and North Carolina likes to run the ball just 40% of the time good for 117th in the county.  The problem is the Tarheels can’t stop the run ranking 106th.  Virginia Tech has not faced a run defense this bad.  They have been able to efficiently move the ball on every single team including 200+ yards rushing against Boston College who is ranked 4th in running defense from a yards per carry perspective.  Bottom line is Virginia Tech can control this game with Travon McMillian, and Marshawn Williams, and some runs by their QB Jerod Evans who at this point looks like a better version of Deondre Francois.

Evans has 13 TD’s to 1 INT is completing 67% of his passes and had good games against good defenses in Tennessee and Boston College.  Tennessee before Cam Sutton got injured.  North Carolina will have their hands full especially when you consider the Hokies come off a bye while North Carolina comes off a very big win over Florida State in dramatic fashion.  Justin Fuente a very good coach and it shows by the way he is running this offense playing to its strengths.  Bud Foster the defensive coordinator for years still here running a top 20 defense.  Fuente off a bye last year with Memphis upset Ole Miss as a double digit under dog.

North Carolina a top offense arguably the best this Virginia Tech defense has faced.  However, the weather does not bode well for the passing game which is their strength behind Mitch Tribusky.  Granted they have looked unstoppable which should get them a lot of public money backing them, but not us.  Tribusky has faced passing defenses ranked 92nd, 120th, 119th, and 114th.  Now he faces Virginia Tech ranked 26th and if they want to run the ball here they rank 22nd in run defense.  Elijah Hood is a little banged up, but should play, but we have seen North Carolina be stopped on the ground before against Pitt who held them to 18 yards on 22 carries.  Pitt ranks 7th in run defense, but 119th in opposing QB rating.  My point is that Virginia Tech is the most complete team that North Carolina has faced so far this season.  They can run, they can pass, they can play defense against the run.  They can play defense against the pass.  The only thing that has cost them in the past is their turnover issues.  They are -2 on the season with 9 fumbles lost in their first 2 games, but they cleaned that up with 0 lost in their last 2 games.  Actually they did not even fumble it against East Carolina or Boston College.

Maryland -1 4.4% Play

I really like the Terps here, and their hire of DJ Durkin.  Durkin the defensive coordinator for Michigan last year and previously Florida has coached up a lot of very good defenses.  This is quickly becoming a rivalry now that Maryland is in the Big Ten.  The last two meetings over the last two seasons have been decided by 1 point.  Maryland was clearly the better team, but lost last year due to 5 turnovers.  Maryland and all the coaches on both sides are saying this is not a rivalry game, but Maryland didn’t even shake the hands of Penn State players last year during the coin toss.  That should tell you everything you need to know in this border rivalry.

I don’t want to get carried away when you look at their schedule it has been really weak to start the season compared with Penn State.  However, Penn State has been decimated with injuries at the linebacker spot and they have really struggled to stop the run which does not set up well in this game with Maryland who comes into this game ranking 4th in the nation in yards per carry.  Penn State’s defense lost 3 linebackers and has Brandon Bell questionable for this game.  They are already thin at linebacker and it’s a big reason why they rank 91st in run defense.  They have already allowed 300+ yards rushing in two games.  And 4 of their 5 opponents have exceeded their season average in yards per carry against them.

Maryland obviously has done it against a weak run defensive schedule with the exception of Central Florida.  Central Florida really good ranking 14th in yards per carry and Maryland was able to average 4.96 with over 200 yards combined.  UCF’s rank is not smoke in mirrors they went on the road and held Michigan to 2.90 yards per carry.  Michigan averaged over 1.75 yards per carry over their season average against Penn State.  These are all key factors when you consider Maryland runs the ball 66% of the time under Durkin.

Defensively I really like Maryland in this game as they have been good against the run.  They held Saquan Barkley to 65 yards last year and he has struggled this year.  Barkley was the key to this offense, and he really has not played well.  The other thing to consider is the fact that Maryland is also getting to the QB over 9% of drop backs.  Penn State has already turned the ball over 10 times while Maryland has turned it over just 2.  Which was a huge reason why they lost this game last year as they had 5 turnovers.  Expect Maryland to play a better game under Durkin.  Penn State also has Ohio State on deck. 

Miss State +3 4.4% play

I really like the home dog here in the Bulldogs as they are coming off a bye and hosting Auburn going on the road for the first time all year.  Auburn coming into this game off a lucky win against LSU and an easy victory against LA Monroe last week.  This team has really struggled to put the ball in the end zone and Miss State held them out of the end zone last year on the road on 4 trips inside the red zone Auburn came away with just 6 points and they held conference opponents a year ago to 43.33% red zone TD%.  I don’t see any signs of this changing as long as Shaun White is the QB.  Shaun White does not have a passing TD on the road in his career and in 7 conference games he has just 1 passing TD and 2 INT’s.

Running the ball will be the key in this game for both teams.  Auburn has shown they can run it on bad teams with 5.67 ypc in non conference games (all at home), but just 3.79 yards per carry in conference.  In their losses they average 3.40 ypc and in their wins 5.80.  Miss State has shown they can stop the run holding LSU in check on the road.  LB Richie Brown has been their best player, but they also have a pair of seniors on the defensive line that should give Auburn real issues in Clavin and Jefferson.  It also seems like the Bulldogs were saving Cedric Jiles for this game as he returns to help out the secondary after getting injured over the summer.

At the end of the day I like QB Nick Fitzgerald and what he’s shown already.  In two conference games he has 208 yards rushing.  He has 2 passing TD’s already more than Shaun White.  The run defense has already shown some vulnerabilities too against Texas A&M and LSU giving up over 6 yards per carry in both and again those game were at home. Dan Mullen off a bye has been very good the last two years with 4 wins and I think he will have his team prepared here this is a very big game for them.  They ran for 290 yards against South Carolina, a defense that held Texas A&M to less yards than Auburn did.  There is clearly talent at Auburn and on this defense, but their offense is simply not good enough to stay on the field and Miss State should pull the upset.  They are also the less penalized team and have a better handle on turnover margin.  Auburn has the edge in special teams expect a lot of field goals in this game, but I think Miss State is the team that can get TD’s in the red zone which will be the difference in a close game.

New Mexico +17.5 2.2% Play

I’m not sold on Bryan Harsin and this Boise State team that was supposed to take off this year looks very average again compared to the teams Chris Peterson had.  They have a co-offensive coordiatnors which it does not take a genius to know that having two people in one leadership role is challenging.  You don’t have two managers when you go into work on Monday do you?  No and there is a reason for that.  Defensively Boise State has been excellent against the run, but they were the last two years going into this game and New Mexico put up 700 rushing yards and upset Boise State as a 30.5 point under dog.

Marcel Yates is now the defensive coordinator at Arizona so perhaps he just was not good at coaching up thekids against the triple option, but the last 8 games Boise State has faced the triple option (New Mexico & Air Force) they are 0-8 ATS.  Enter Andy Avalos who was helping Yates as the linebacker coach the last few years.  So it was basically his job to teach these linebackers who to stay in their gaps and defend this triple option.  He did an awful job and I don’t anticipate anything changing here because of it.  Avalos is very young, graduated in 2004 and lacks the experience to make a difference in this one, and Bryan Harsin has been a head coach just 4 short years and is an offensive minded guy. 

Speaking of the offense Boise is not where everyone thought they would be.  They have faced 1 top 50 defense in Utah State and only scored 21 points.  Brett Rypien was supposed to be a dark horse Heisman candidate by someone’s calculation and he’s got just 6 TD’s 3 INT’s with a 58.6% completion rate.  Sure Boise State may have this game circled for revenge although doubtful.  They had revenge against Utah State last week at home and did not cover the spread winning 21-10.

LA TECH +125 3% PLAY

This is an interesting and close match up when you look at how these two teams have done this season.  The rankings have them pretty identical on a lot of levels including strength of schedule.  Both teams like to pass the ball and struggle to stop the pass, and both have 1 point losses to power 5 teams.  Western Kentucky lost by 1 at home to Vanderbilt, and LA Tech lost by 1 on the road to Arkansas.  I did a lot more digging I think LA Tech has a nice edge in this one.

When you look at the fact that both of these teams will pass it over 55% of the time you have to take into consideration how they defend the pass, and what types of teams they have faced leading up to this spot.  For LA Tech, their defense has struggled, but that's not surprising when you look at the fact that they played Arkansas 19th in passer rating, Texas Tech 2nd in passer rating, Middle Tennessee another team that likes to pass a bunch and is very good at it.  They have done this in 3 road games out of their 4 total games vs. FBS.  Meanwhile Western Kentucky who statistically shows up as a better pass defense has done it at home 2 games out of 4 and have faced not a single team in the top 25 in passing offense.  The best passing offense was Alabama ranking 38th.  Alabama as we know probably did not implement their full game plan in that game.  Both Alabama and Miami Ohio threw for over 300 yards on this defense and had 4 TD's to 0 INT's.  

Ryan Higgins who has done exceptionally well against some good defenses on the road is a SR. QB that I will take over Mike white on the other side.  both have similar numbers Higgins 12 TD's 2 INT's 63.7% completion and 8.3 yards per attempt (3 road games in there), and White 9 TD, 3 INT's 63.5% and 10 yards per attempt. (2 road games).  Both teams faced very good defenses, but as I mentioned Higgins impressive numbers have 1 extra road game built in.

The running game for each team pretty similar in the fact that LA Tech is better at running the ball and Western Kentucky is better at stopping.  Edge to the home team here, but not a significant edge.

This is a short week and the home team has a big advantage.  When I look into other details such as red zone and third down efficiency LA Tech has an edge as Mike White and that Hilltoppers offense just 31.58% on third down.  The special teams has not been good for Western Kentucky just 7-11 on field goals and they have been penalized 6.6 times per game.  Turnovers is pretty even with both teams -2 on the season.  Western Kentucky however has lost 2 more and are -3 in margin on the road. 

Arkansas State +8 2.2% Play

Arkansas State has looked very bad this year and they are coming off a loss to an FCS in state rival.  We have seen that many times this year already haven't we?  I love backing the FBS team the following week because we get tremendous line value and that's the case again here with Arkansas State as a huge home dog.  Arkansas State is 0-4, but their Sun Belt season starts tonight and they have had extra time to prepare for Georgia Southern's option attack under a first year head coach.  The offense actually has not looked as sharp as years past for Georgia Southern only averaging 23.5 ppg in conference play.

I love that Georgia Southern has Georgia Tech on deck. How could these kids not be looking ahead to that game especially since Arkansas State is not the threat in the Sun Belt everyone thought they would be.  I also loved that Arkansas State switched to the new QB in Justice Hansen and he's throwing the ball down the field at over 10 yards per completion.  That's bad news for the young and inexperienced Georgia Southern secondary.  Arkansas State has a new head coach as well, but they still have defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen in his 3rd year.  Cauthen typically sports an aggressive style defense and that typically is a good recipe to get  run first team behind the chains at times and force them to pass.  Despite struggling against a similar offense in Auburn earlier this year I think that gives them a lot of tape to go over this week prepping for Georgia Southern.  Georgia Southern will have their points in this one, but I see Arkansas State scoring too.

Oregon -1.5 4.4% PLAY

The only reason this was not my top play is Washington State comes off a bye which I guess should not matter since Mike Leach is 1-4 off a bye in the regular season at Washington State the last 3 years.  Either way this is a revenge spot for Oregon who lost at home despite rushing for 8.2 yards per carry.  I don’t see Washington State being able to stop Oregon at all with Royce Freeman returning and Dakota Prukop throwing as well as he has completing 67% of his passes.  This is much more of a balanced offense that should be able to run the ball against the Cougars.  Here’s the deal people forget that Veron Adams missed that game last year which was huge.  Oregon was clearly not the same without him.

Oregon may give up a ton of yards here with Brady Hoke, but he’s going to get some stops and enough stops to win this game in my opinion.  Hoke always has an aggressive defense which will hurt sometimes, but Washington State has an offense that will just dink and dunk down the field and getting a team like that into third and longs is key.  Oregon held this team to 32% on third down in last year’s game, but were 5-16 themselves without any balance from their passing game.  This year Oregon certainly has balance.

This line adjustment is huge in my opinion.  Washington State is on the up and up, but they are 1-2 this year they lost to a Boise State team, but haven’t played anyone else.  Meanwhile Oregon lost 2 games against Colorado and Nebraska.  I get Colorado is what people are focusing on here, but the Buffaloes are much improved.  Probably the most improved team in the country and I know they did it with a backup QB last week, but Colorado was right in that game 2 weeks ago on the road against Michigan, a team everyone is already talking college football playoff about.

This should be a tight game or a double digit victory for Oregon.  If it’s a tight game then Oregon has the advantage as Washington State’s field goal kicker Erik Powell is 0-3 in attempts this year.  Oregon also the stronger strength of schedule and ranks 6th in YPP on offense 67th on defense while Washington State ranks 42nd on offense and 50th on defense.

Clemson +8.5 w/ Michigan State 0.5 4.4% Teaser

Clemson at home at night here.  This team has looked like the team they were supposed to be this year in their last two games.  This front 7 defense was absolutely dominating against the triple option on a short week.  Brent Venables is an excellent defensive coordinator and he has extra time to prepare for this game.  The thing I like the most is the fact that Clemson is not the type of defense to give up big plays.  I think Louisville relies on that pretty often.  I think Lamar Jackson is very over rated as a passer.  He has a lot of arm strength, but 58.7% completion percentage does not give me confidence that he will go on the road to beat one of the best teams in the country.

Clemson has the better QB in this one in Deshaun Watson and you better bet this Clemson team has a little bit of a chip on their shoulder being underdogs in this one.  Clemson has a defense that can make you one dimensional as they are allowing just 47.3% completion percentage.  They are very good allowing just 4.5 yards per attempt and have allowed 2 passing TD’s to 7 interceptions.  I guarantee Lamar Jackson will throw an interception in this game.  I think Louisville has yet to be on the ropes and this will test their character quite a bit on the road.  If I am wrong Louisville is getting into the college football championship and I’ll be okay.    

Why I’m not taking Clemson at +2?  There just is not as much value with Clemson at +2 as there is at +8.5.  This was a 20-17 game last year at Louisville and held them under 1 yards per carry.  My algorithms actually like Louisville a little bit, but not by more than a TD.

Michigan State -0.5

How can you not be confident in Michigan State to rebound this week.  Michigan State since 2010 are 14-2 following a loss (2 losses were by 5 pts combined) and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a loss.  Mark Dantonio after a loss, “Life is about adversity and the way you handle it,” Dantonio said. “And I talk to our players all the time — and basically to my family and myself and our staff. You know, you’re defined ultimately on how you handle it. …

“We’ll be OK.”

I’m extremely confident in backing this team they played a good Wisconsin team and it was not their day.  I have all the confidence in senior QB Tyler O’connor who looked bad last week against a good defense, but he’s a veteran, a Sr. QB who is behind a veteran offensive line that knows this offense.  O’Connor has won on the road before, last year at Ohio State comes to mind.  I think we get tremendous value here no matter what way you look at it as this would typically be 10 point spread.  The offense has scored points on Indiana year in and year out.

Indiana’s offense does not look great so far against Wake Forest, Ball State, and FIU.  None of those 3 teams are in the top 50 in yards per play allowed.  Michigan State’s defense very good in the front 7.  Their weakness is in pass defense, but I don’t trust this Indiana QB enough to win this game against Michigan State off a loss.  Indiana on the flip side has played well defensively, but against some very bad offenses.  I can see Michigan State putting up a lot of points in this one at least 30, and I don’t see Indiana matching that.  Indiana also vulnerable to the power rushing attack ranking 118th in opponent power success rate which is when they face a 3rd or 4th and 2 yards to go, and 2 yards to go in any situation in the red zone. That happened against Wake Forest 88th in rushing ypc, Florida INT 90th in ypc, and Ball State who is 20th in YPC, but played the following running defenses so far – 105th, and 124th ranked rushing defenses so their 20th ranking obviously skewed at this point.

Clemson +8.5 w/ Michigan State 0.5 4.4% Teaser

Clemson at home at night here.  This team has looked like the team they were supposed to be this year in their last two games.  This front 7 defense was absolutely dominating against the triple option on a short week.  Brent Venables is an excellent defensive coordinator and he has extra time to prepare for this game.  The thing I like the most is the fact that Clemson is not the type of defense to give up big plays.  I think Louisville relies on that pretty often.  I think Lamar Jackson is very over rated as a passer.  He has a lot of arm strength, but 58.7% completion percentage does not give me confidence that he will go on the road to beat one of the best teams in the country.

Clemson has the better QB in this one in Deshaun Watson and you better bet this Clemson team has a little bit of a chip on their shoulder being underdogs in this one.  Clemson has a defense that can make you one dimensional as they are allowing just 47.3% completion percentage.  They are very good allowing just 4.5 yards per attempt and have allowed 2 passing TD’s to 7 interceptions.  I guarantee Lamar Jackson will throw an interception in this game.  I think Louisville has yet to be on the ropes and this will test their character quite a bit on the road.  If I am wrong Louisville is getting into the college football championship and I’ll be okay.    

Why I’m not taking Clemson at +2?  There just is not as much value with Clemson at +2 as there is at +8.5.  This was a 20-17 game last year at Louisville and held them under 1 yards per carry.  My algorithms actually like Louisville a little bit, but not by more than a TD.

Michigan State -0.5

How can you not be confident in Michigan State to rebound this week.  Michigan State since 2010 are 14-2 following a loss (2 losses were by 5 pts combined) and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a loss.  Mark Dantonio after a loss, “Life is about adversity and the way you handle it,” Dantonio said. “And I talk to our players all the time — and basically to my family and myself and our staff. You know, you’re defined ultimately on how you handle it. …

“We’ll be OK.”

I’m extremely confident in backing this team they played a good Wisconsin team and it was not their day.  I have all the confidence in senior QB Tyler O’connor who looked bad last week against a good defense, but he’s a veteran, a Sr. QB who is behind a veteran offensive line that knows this offense.  O’Connor has won on the road before, last year at Ohio State comes to mind.  I think we get tremendous value here no matter what way you look at it as this would typically be 10 point spread.  The offense has scored points on Indiana year in and year out.

Indiana’s offense does not look great so far against Wake Forest, Ball State, and FIU.  None of those 3 teams are in the top 50 in yards per play allowed.  Michigan State’s defense very good in the front 7.  Their weakness is in pass defense, but I don’t trust this Indiana QB enough to win this game against Michigan State off a loss.  Indiana on the flip side has played well defensively, but against some very bad offenses.  I can see Michigan State putting up a lot of points in this one at least 30, and I don’t see Indiana matching that.  Indiana also vulnerable to the power rushing attack ranking 118th in opponent power success rate which is when they face a 3rd or 4th and 2 yards to go, and 2 yards to go in any situation in the red zone. That happened against Wake Forest 88th in rushing ypc, Florida INT 90th in ypc, and Ball State who is 20th in YPC, but played the following running defenses so far – 105th, and 124th ranked rushing defenses so their 20th ranking obviously skewed at this point.

Ole Miss -14.5 3.3% play

I really like the Rebels this week considering how Memphis comes into this game fresh off a 77-3 ass whooping on Bowling Green.  This is Memphis first game on the road this year and they are taking a major leap in competition.  They arguably have played two worst teams in the country in Kansas and Bowling Green.  Bowling Green has a completely new coaching staff and I’m not surprised how they have struggled as none of them have ever called plays before.

Ole Miss, has the revenge factor or at least they have Memphis on their mind.  That’s a good thing as Hugh Freeze is aware, and seems like he’s aware of the spread going 45-22-1 ATS in his career.  If you don’t know the story.  Ole Miss lost at Memphis last year which was one of the things holding them back from getting into a the playoff.  Ole Miss TE Evan Engram was heard talking about the Memphis in the 4th quarter of the Georgia game which was not even as close as the 45-14 final indicated.  Ole Miss was up 45-0 in the third quarter.  DE John Youngblood also stated, “We got embarrassed last year.”  So I am confident it’s on the mind of Ole Miss players and they certainly remember the 37-24 loss on the road a year ago.

Memphis is without three of the most important things you could have in a football game.  Home field advantage, their star QB Paxton Lynch who threw for 384 yards is in the NFL, and arguably a top 10 coach in Justin Fuente has moved onto Virginia Tech.  The big problem for Ole Miss last year was they did not seem prepared.  They could not stay on the field 4-15 on third and fourth downs and they could not get Memphis off the field.  They already look much improved this year and they have played 3 Top 25 teams in Georgia, Florida State, and Alabama.  They could very easily be 4-0, but instead are 2-2.  If they are 4-0 I’m guessing this line is 21.5.  I think Chad Kelly has gotten better and he’s got ridiculous weapons in Engram and Stringfellow that Memphis can’t cover. 

There are also red flags on this Memphis team that is scoring a ton of points right now and playing very good defense.  Their offense is converting just 38% on third down.  They are 124th in the nation with a 1.11% sack %.  They are not getting any pressure which is concerning when you consider the fact that Chad Kelly will light you up if he has time.

Charlotte +8.5 3.3% play

Honestly this seems like way too many points when you consider Charlotte only lost by 3 points last year despite out playing Old Dominion with +54 yards.  They actually had the lead 24-12 in that game, and I’m not really sure what happened,  but the good news is they return more starters that Old Dominion and 10 more lettermen.  They also have a couple of key transfers in Robert Washington at RB to add depth alongside Kalif Phillips who has been great so far.  Also the loss against Louisville does not look at bad as it did to open the season.

Charlotte actually averaged 5.5 yards per carry on the road against Temple and really held their own in the game with just -78 yards of total offense.  They have to find a way for this to show up in the final score because as of right now that’s not happening, but this is a good spot in a divisional game against comparable competition.  Old Dominion also might be without their best player in Ray Lawry at RB who is listed as questionable with an ankle.  I bet he gives it a go, but I don’t know how effective he’ll be. 

Some other key facts in this one is the fact that Old Dominion is allowing 84% TD’s in the red zone.  They are also traveling for the third time in four weeks while Charlotte is at home for the third time in four weeks.

Georgia +3.5 5.5% POD

Tennessee has won and covered both of their big games this year where College Game Day covered and the public remembers that.  Tennessee already coming into the season was getting a lot of hype, and they finally looked good last week, but against a Florida team dealing with their own issues on the road.  Tennessee has struggled and I thought they should have lost the week against Virginia Tech.  I was extremely nervous with my teaser last week backing Tennessee, but they won the game arguably the biggest game under Butch Davis which is not saying much.  You beat a team you were supposed to as more than a TD favorite.

Georgia on the other hand has had a tough start to the season, but there are hidden signs that this team is better or at least more balanced and harder to prepare for.  Georgia took an ass whooping last week against Ole Miss who everyone sees sitting at 2-2, but make no mistakes about it Ole Miss is a Top 10 team under Hugh Freeze.  Georgia returning home for their first home game is just what the doctor ordered.  Tennessee is well aware they are a road favorite and they also have a showdown the following week against Texas A&M.  I just don’t trust Davis in this spot as Tennessee is 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS win.  This is a huge hang over spot, but even if Tennessee isn’t hung over they should struggle to win this game never mind cover 3.5 points.

With or without Nick Chubb I think Georgia is in good shape they are getting good production out of Brian Herrien and Sony Michel.  This is just the second time that Georgia has been a home dog in 10 years.  I think to win they have to stop the run and last time I checked Kirby Smart has been very good at defending the run.  Georgia’s defense has struggled a couple times vs. the run this season, but that was against teams that had balance with dangerous passing games.  North Carolina is a true balanced team and Mitch Trubisky is completing 74.5% of his passes has 10 TD’s and 0 INT’s.  Ole Miss Chad Kelly is probably the best QB in the country right now.  Josh Dobbs, although a very good running QB can not throw the ball.  He’s completing 57% of his passes and yes I saw the drops from a tight team in the first half, but his balls were off the mark time and time again. 

Dobbs completed just 59% of his passes a year ago and just 6.7 yards per attempt.  Tennessee is far from a big pass offense which is where Georgia is having issues right now.  Butch Davis does not seem smart enough to take advantage and probably doesn’t feel like he has to with this strong running game.  They run the ball 60% of the time and 65% on the road.  I see Georgia’s defense really holding them in check in this one and I think Georgia’s offense could have their best day of the season.

Jacob Eason at home for the first time.  He’s shown signs of brilliance against very good defenses in Ole Miss and Missouri on the road.  He’s got a big arm and we have seen in the last 3 games Tennessee’s secondary has had issues allowing 5 TD’s to just 1 interception and 740 yards passing.  Tennessee’s secondary also without their star player in Cam Sutton who will miss this game they could also be without Jalen-Reeves Maybin. 

Georgia has to have revenge on their mind here and Nick Chubb may want to play more than we realize when he got hurt in this game last year.  Georgia’s offense is looking better on third down on both sides of the ball against a tough schedule to start the year.  Meanwhile Tennessee has actually looked worse in third down offense and defense compared with last year.  In a tight game like this I will take the home dog every time.

UMASS +2.5 2.2% PLAY

I like Umass in this spot after Tulane has a far way to travel to Massachusetts after a 4 OT game against an instate rival in ULLAF and to top it off they won 41-39.  That score is extremely misleading when you think about the fact that Tulane was 0-16 on third down.  I don’t think I have ever seen a team win a game that was 0-16 on third down.  I’m not overall impressed with Lafayette this year either they lost 45-10 against Boise State in their only step up game.  Tulane has not played anyone either and they have a brand new coach staff in Willie Fritz.  I love the hire in Fritz from Georgia Southern, but it’s going to be a few years before this team can be dangerous.  Fritz brings over his option attack, and he just does not have the weapons to run it.  Glen coielette has been awful with 35 rushes for 65 yards at QB, and he’s completing less than 50% of his passes so the UMASS defense really does not have to pay much attention to him.  Coielette will get the start despite true freshmen Jonathan Brandley looking like the better runner.

This is the first time Tulane is road chalk in 10 years and I just can’t back them.  Umass may struggle a little bit early with the option, but they have played three really good teams already in Florida, Boston College and Miss State.  They have held their own in the run defense and have come up with some big stops on third down holding opponents to 33% which is impressive given their strength of schedule.  They are also very solid in the red zone defense, and Tulane has struggled on third down and in the red zone.  The Minutemen have just as good of a defense from what I see and a more balanced offense in the third year of their head coach.  They also have a veteran offensive line, and RB Marqise Young is a threat as he ran for 125 yards against Miss State.  LSU RB Leonard Fournette needed 28 carries to get to 147 yards against this defense.

BYU -3 -120 3% PLAY

This is tremendous line value as I had BYU at -7.5. I like the veteran led squad from BYU returning home and this is a must win game.  Nobody has had a more challenging schedule than BYU having played Arizona, Utah, UCLA, and West Virginia to start the season.  Toledo comes into the year looking like the MAC favorites after the first few weeks, but they are about to enter into a completely different game than their first three.  I understand they are coming off a bye here, and BYU is on short rest, but if there is a team that can handle it that would be BYU.  BYU has a team of mostly grown men not 18 and 19 year olds and they know how critical this game is Friday night expect a well played game.

Toledo surely has a dynamic offense, but I don't think their QB Logan Woodside is as good as he has looked so far.  I expect this BYU defense to pick him off a couple of times and if they turn to the running game like they have the majority of the time this year (63%), they will struggle.  BYU yearly has one of the best run defenses and that has no changed this year which is impressive considering they have faced 3 Top 60 rushing offenses and have yet to give up more than 170 yards in a game.  They definitely have to keep Kareem Hunt in check in this one, but I think their offense is the reason they will cover the 3 points I'm betting on.

Toledo has a lot of skill players, and their defense has looked great, but going on the road against an experienced team when you have a completely new defensive line, and many players in the secondary.  Their wins against Arkansas Sate and Fresno don't sound bad, but both of those teams are not in the top 100 on offense or defense yards per play allowed.  Their other opponent was Maine at home who is now 0-3 on the year.  BYU is just clearly the more desperate team and I thought their offense really looked good against a very good defensive West Virginia team.  Keep in mind BYU is breaking in a more pro styled offense, and that sets them up well in this match up.

Arkansas +6.5 5.5% POD / Arkansas +210 1% play

This game will be played at Cowboys Stadium again, and honestly there really is not a lot separating these two teams.  The game of the year line had this game as a pickem, but we are getting 6.5 points due to the success of Texas A&M over two good teams in UCLA & Auburn.  However, I am more impressed with Arkansas win over TCU on the road.

This game went to OT the last two years, and I expect it to be another close game.  Texas A&M’s strength of rushing the passer won’t show up as much in this game as Arkansas loves to pound the rock, but the play of Austin Allen has been exceptional so far this year.  He faced a good TCU defense on the road and had 3 TD’s 0 INT’s.  He’s got a very experienced WR group in seniors Keon Hatcher and Drew Morgan and throw in TE Jeremy Sprinkle and you can see why this team is having success in the red zone that Texas A&M is not.

A&M has struggled on third downs, and in the red zone converting drives into TD’s.  Arkansas defense is very under rated.  They held TCU to 7 points after 3 quarters on the road.  Trevor Knight has been a nice story for A&M at QB, but he’s only completing 52.9% of his passes converting 30% on third down and less than 50% TD’s in the red zone.  Knight has not shown a threat to stretch the field and he goes up against a very good pass defense in Arkansas who have already been tested by TCU.

Arkansas has proven they can run the ball in this series covering more than 200 yards in both OT loses.  I expect the same thing, and I like Arkansas defense better this year, I like their receivers better and they have an experienced offensive line although they are shuffling some things around.  This is a clear game that Arkansas circled before the season and a critical SEC West showdown.  I think Bielema is a little bit of a better coach and he’s an impressive 10-1-1 ATS as a dog with Arkansas with 6 outright upsets.  A&M struggled to stop Auburn’s running game which is a red flag for me considering Arkansas has the threat of the passing game.  

Oklahoma State +9 2.2%

Call me crazy, but I believe Oklahoma State has the edge here in the trenches as Baylor lost everyone on their starting offensive and defensive line with the exception of one player.  Baylor also off to a slow start and this offense is not quite the same as they were unable to score a 1st quarter TD against Rice and SMU (7 TD in 1Q last year against them).  Baylor 5.9 yards per play so far this season averaged 7.1 a year ago and they have faced very bad defenses so far.

Oklahoma State meanwhile has 101 career starts returning on the offensive line and DT Vincent Taylor, a likely first team All Big 12 is the best defensive lineman in this game.  Baylor also struggling to get any type of pressure ranking 78th in sack % against weak opponents.  Mason Rudolph should have plenty of time to move the chains in this one.  Rudolph has James Washington and the league’s second best TE in Blake Jarwin.

Many will point to Oklahoma State’s loss to Central Michigan out of the MAC.  I will say what I have been saying all along.  The Big 12 is over rated!  That play was actually never supposed to happen, and I am really impressed with the way the Cowboys responded by coming back and winning against a very good Pitt team out of the ACC.  Baylor simply has not been themselves, they have 34 penalties in 3 games and they lack a killer instinct and Oklahoma State could be poised for a back door cover if they get behind.

FSU +1 / TENN 0.5 4.4% TEASER

LSU/AUBURN UNDER 44.5 3.3%

LSU/Auburn Under 44.5 3.3% play

I had a strong lean on LSU here, but the fact that Kevin Steele was the defensive coordinator at LSU last year makes me a bit afraid of that.  Auburn also a very desperate team, but their offense has really struggled they are last in the nation in tackles for loss allowed.  They did play some formidable fronts in Clemson and Texas A&M, and LSU may be even better.  LSU led by Arden Key who has 5.5 sacks.  I’m thinking LSU may even get a defensive touch down in this one, but I don’t see Auburn scoring more than 14 points in this one making it very difficult for this game to go over the total. 

I also expect LSU to control this game and they are 120th in pace with just 61 plays per game.  They are 15th in yards per play allowed and their best coach is Dave Aranda, their defensive coordinator who leads an experienced defense.  It will be interesting to see what he comes up with for this Auburn team that can run the ball a little bit.  Actually Auburn running the ball 62% of the time which keeps the clock moving which I definitely like when taking the under.  Last year LSU put 45 points up on Auburn, but that was a little inflated and Leonard Fournette was a different guy.  This is a much better Auburn defense that is flying under the radar especially at home and you cannot discount the issues LSU is having on the offensive line.  A ton of injuries and this game just smells like a lot of field goals and not a lot of TD’s as the pressure is on for both of these coaches who are in desperate of a big win to keep their coaching seat cold. 

Florida State +1 (TEASER) w/ Tennessee -0.5 – 4.4% PLAY

OKAY, Florida State has seriously been tested to start the year playing Ole Miss, and Louisville.  Their showing against Louisville was embarrassing for them, and me as a handicapper, but I am not afraid to go back and back them again this week against South Florida.  This line is seriously off when you consider Florida State has more returning starters than South Florida and the line was 28.5 compared to 6 points, and I don’t feel like there is a huge deal of home field advantage.  There will be plenty of Florida State fans here.  I accept and notice that Florida State’s offensive line and defensive line has not played well, but when it comes down to it we are buying low on the Seminoles here and I am truly confident they win this game as they have everything ahead of them to get into the college football playoff.

For South Florida they win at Syracuse much like Louisville did the week before, and they are drawing tons of comparisons to Louisville with their style of play.  Their QB is dual threat and they have an excellent RB in Marlon Mack, but let’s not get carried away.  South Florida has yet to step up in competition their offensive line took a significant hit on the offensive line this offseason, losing 3 full time starters from last year’s 8-5 team.  Two of their starters now in Billy Atterbury and Cameron Ruff are learning new positions.  It’s great to see a 45-20 victory, but that game was extremely misleading.  Not only did South Florida have 400 yards less than Louisville did at Syracuse, but they were outgained by 95, had 10 fewer first downs, had a punt return TD, and fell on all 4 fumbles in the game and overcame a 17-0 deficit.  That does not deserve this kind of respect in my opinion.

None of that really matters unless the offensive line plays better for Florida State.  They played well in this game last year, and South Florida has rookies on the edge having to replace 3 starters.  Jimbo Fisher actually hinted at some different moves up front which can only be a good thing and they are very deep along the offensive line.  They haven’t faced a balanced offense like Florida State.  People forget what Florida State did to a very impressive Ole Miss defense.  Florida State out played what Alabama did to Ole Miss.  Put that all in perspective and you should feel confident backing the Seminoles this week. 

Tennessee 

Line value is certainly there as Tennessee was a 12.5 point favorite in the game of the year lines and now they are 6.5 despite Florida also losing their starting QB last week.  Tennessee has not been impressive and Butch Jones can’t win a big game, but this may be that game that the Volunteers have had circled.  They were up 27-14 last year in the 4th quarter before allowing 2 late TD’s.  74% of the best and 86% of the money is on Florida in this one, and I’m not buying this at all perhaps Butch Jones finally gets his big win.

Florida will start Purdue transfer Austin Appleby and that’s not good news.  Appleby in 2 years at Purdue threw more interceptions than TD’s.  Tennessee’s defensive coordinator Bob Shoop should have an edge here as his brother John Shoop was QB coach at Purdue when Appleby was the QB and I’m sure he will be handed a nice scouting report on Appleby.  That means it’s going to be up to Florida’s running game which averaged just 3.36 yards per carry on the road last year, and 3.16 in conference play.  It was their passing game that got them a win a year ago at home and they were lucky to have it.  Tennessee has struggled this year and I haven’t been high on them, but this is a game they have clearly circled.  This is a team that is already battle tested and has found ways to win while Florida has played a cupcake schedule.  This Florida defense lost 3 guys to the NFL draft in their front 7.  I like the experience and home field advantage in this one.  The game of the year line was 12.5 in favor of Tennessee, and that was before they lost their QB now I’m getting it at 6.5.   I’ll take the teaser as I’m getting 12.5 points of value.

Vanderbilt +8 4.4% play

This is far too many points when you look at the fact that Vanderbilt has a very good defense.  It did not look very good a week ago against Georgia Tech, but that is to be expected.  I don’t think Vanderbilt has faced the triple option and I am almost positive Derek Mason’s experience with it is extremely limited so I’m not surprised by the struggles they had.  With that said this line is inflated because of that game.  I won’t disagree that Vanderbilt’s offense has been very bad, but going up against a Conference USA opponent should help that.  Vanderbilt lost this game last year but outgained Western Kentucky 385 to 246.  Western Kentucky lost their star QB Brandon Doughty, and 8 defensive starters.

Western Kentucky has had a very easy schedule outside of Alabama.  They played pretty well against the Crimson Tide, but mainly because Alabama was looking ahead to the Ole Miss game.  Last week Western Kentucky was out gained by Miami Ohio.  The SEC is 7-1 SU, and 7-0-1 ATS as a dog against Conference USA opponents.  Vanderbilt 7-0 ATS themselves vs. the CUSA while Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the SEC.

Another key factor to consider in this game is the fact that both teams are slowing the game down considerably vs. last year.  Vanderbilt 97th in pace -8 plays per game, and Western Kentucky is 106th at -8 plays per game.  8 points to a solid defense is too many.  Some of you may think I am crazy calling Vanderbilt a solid defense, but that’s what they are led by Zach Cunningham and a plethora or returning starters from last year which held this team to 246 yards and 14 points.  Western Kentucky has some offensive weapons at WR, and Mike White has been good, but this Vanderbilt defense has been very good vs. the pass.  They gave up just 55% completion rate, and their yards allowed are skewed because of the Middle Tennessee game where they threw the ball 65 times.  Vanderbilt vs. a one dimension offense last year allowed opponents to score just 15.7 ppg.  That’s exactly what Western Kentucky is this year.  They have 256 total rushing yards on the season and ironically had their best rushing game vs. Alabama which just proves how disinterested the Tide were.  They average 2.94 ypc, and their strategy falls into the strength of Vanderbilt’s defense.  This is a must win for Derek Mason.  The strength of schedule has been tough to start and I think this is a game decided by a field goal and I think Vanderbilt has an excellent shot at winning. 

Akron +6 2.2%

I’m typically a buy low sell high guy and Akron does not really fit that here, but they are still getting tremendous value over an App State team coming into the year with plenty of hype.  They lived up to it against Tennessee to open the season, but as I expressed in my free pick last week on Miami.  They had all season to prepare for that game.  Miami really pointed some weaknesses on this App State team, and at this point their offense has really struggled.  Even against Old Dominion they went 2-13 on third down.  I certainly do not feel like they deserve to be laying nearly a TD on the road against a pretty good Akron team that deserved to win and cover over Marshall.

Akron returns just 7 starters, but head coach Terry Bowden has brought in some solid power 5 transfers and this team could be as good as Ohio to lead the MAC EAST.  I see Appalachian State having some issues getting up for this game after they are coming off their programs biggest home game in school history.  Marcus Cox is uncertain for this game and is clearly their best player.  Even if he plays I don’t see how long he stays in this game.  Akron’s offense is very under rated as Thomas Woodson has 10 TD’s to 2 INT’s and the running game has provided balance so far.  I like the fact that the MAC has been pretty good against the Sun Belt going 14-16 since 2010 and 2-1 this year.  This is just too much line value to pass up. 

USC/UTAH Under 46.5 2.2% play 

I feel very confident in the under.  I did not like the side in this one originally leaning towards USC because of line value, but they have too many issues right now.  Off the field, on the field.  First of all this offense now facing another physically defense that knows how to play fundamental football is going to give them issues.  I don't care how athletic these receivers are or about the QB change.  USC is having issues on the offensive line and they are going to have issues scoring TD's in this game.

Utah on the other hand already having issues scoring points that are a bit hidden.  They have had red zone issues with just 42.86% TD rate in the red zone, and they will slow this game down leaning on the run with nearly 60% of their play calls in the running game.  This running game is not nearly as good as last years, but that is where they can win this game, because USC is a little soft in their front 7.  Both Alabama and Stanford had a ton of success running the ball on this team.  Utah certainly does not have as good of an offense and USC actually held Alabama to 10 points until Max Brown threw a pick 6 to end the half in week 1.  USC's defense is better than it has looked, and I think the fact that both teams are slowing it down makes for a low scoring game.  Utah 99th in the nation in plays per game while USC comes in at 80th, with even less plays on the road.  Utah has a ton of faith in the secondary which is probably the only place USC has a significant advantage and the only threat to this game going over other than special teams and turnovers.

Utah's secondary at home has been very good.  They already have 15 sacks on the year which does not look good for USC's offensive line.  Finally the under is 9-3 in USC's last 12 road games, and 33-16-2 in their last 51 following an ATS loss.

Georgia Tech +10 3.3% play

There are a few shops out there with 10’s including Bovada.  I’m even happy taking Tech at +9.5 at -105.

I was extremely impressed by Georgia Tech’s win last week against Vanderbilt.  I thought there was value with them at -6.5 over Vanderbilt especially since they haven’t faced the triple option before, but I could not pull the trigger.  They win in convincing fashion and the offense looked great against Derek Mason’s defense which some could argue is as good as Clemson’s defense. 

Clemson has more talent here, but there is certainly inexperience on defense.  Just 50% of their production return from last year and they certainly have not been tested like this.  When you consider that Auburn’s offense is just beyond awful, Troy is Troy, and SC State can’t even return kicks.  Clemson lost key guys up front on the defensive line including Shaq Lawson, but 3 total guys who played in 15 games.  They lose 2 LB’s, and 3 guys in the secondary.  Dabo Swiney’s teams have done well against the triple option, because he says they prepare for it all off season, but there is still quite a bit of inexperience against the flexbone.

Paul Johnson is pretty honest about his offense and his comments intrigue me.  He seems to be very confident and why shouldn’t he be.  They were decimated by injuries a year ago.  This year they have a veteran QB in Justin Thomas, and offensive line that is physical and can pass protect better than lines in recent years and more versatility at both the A and B back positions.  I also like their capability and desire to take shots deep.  I think the Clemson secondary can be caught sleeping and I think a few plays deep can really change the momentum of this game.

The good thing if you are a Georgia Tech backer is that they have proven they can score without their running game against Clemson who has done a great job of stopping it.  I’m convinced this offense can be better than 2014 for Georgia Tech.  I am very confident this will be a close game as Georgia Tech will hold onto the ball as much as possible to limit possessions and when you talk about holding the ball and you’re not giving Clemson their 14 possessions you are taking about putting a tremendous amount of pressure on the offense.  I don’t think Clemson is ready for that type of pressure based on what I have seen this year.  Georgia Tech’s Paul Johnson talks a lot about possessions, stating "If we're playing well offensively and not turning the ball over and not making penalties, there is a huge difference," Johnson said Monday in Atlanta. "If you can get people into an eight-possession game, or a nine-possession game, and you're really efficient on offense, it puts a lot of pressure on them on offense. Because if their concern is getting two touchdowns down, that's like being four touchdowns down against somebody that's playing 15 possessions."

I just feel at the end of the day Georgia Tech at home, Clemson short week to prepare with Louisville on deck not to say they won’t take Georgia Tech seriously.  It’s hard to beat Georgia Tech by double digits at home unless they make a ton of mistakes.  Georgia Tech just 2.7 penalties per game and they have an experienced QB who is very aware of how important ball control is.

Ohio State -1.5 2.2% play

Ohio State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Big 12, they are 40-16-1 ATS in their last 57 road games while the Sooners are just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.  Without a doubt this would be a much larger play if we had line value as this was +9 Ohio State over the summer, but enter the loss to Houston and some other things going on and Ohio State is a small favorite which I still like with Urban Meyer at the helm.

Everyone wants to talk about all the talent Ohio State had to replace.  Well this is a team that recruits well and reloads like Alabama and they have arguably a better coach.  If you have listened to me in the past you know I’m not high on the Big 12, and even though Oklahoma has not been a home dog since 2000, I think they can get beat in this game.  Actually in 2014 this team lost 3 games at home as a favorite under Stoops.  Oklahoma also lost a lot of talent that nobody is talking about.  They lost 5 linebackers, a bunch on the defensive line and offensive line is extremely young.  Oklahoma’s offensive line does not have a single senior and just one junior, but hey they still have Baker Mayfield?  Ohio State meanwhile still has arguably their best two defensive players from last year although nobody would admit.  Tyquan Lewis led the team with 8 sacks last year and Raekwon McMillan, a 5 star athlete led the team in tackles.

Ohio State’s secondary was the big concern this year, but they already look better than many expected.  I really like the hire of Greg Schiano whose defenses always exceeded expectations at Rutgers.  This is an aggressive group that specializes in havoc and forcing 3 and outs.  That means Ohio State could get up early in this game and I think Baker Mayfield is going to make a few mistakes.  Honestly, I don’t think he’s that great, I just think he plays in the Big 12.  When asked to do it against athletic defenses he’s struggled (see Clemson).

There is just too much pressure I think on Oklahoma in this spot and that’s never good for Stoops.  Oklahoma was good on defense against Houston, but I think Mike Weber, and J.T. Barret will provide more of a challenge.  We have seen this defense struggle in the past against dual threat offenses like this.  Also important to note is the fact that Oklahoma lost to Houston this year with Tom Herman as the coach.  Herman served under Urban Meyer as his offensive coordinator when they won the national championship.  I’m sure Meyer picked up the phone a few times before this match up.

Missouri +6.5 2.2% play

I wish I grabbed this one earlier in the week.  I had Missouri in week 1 as our max rating POD, and I think we should have covered.  Missouri is running a new up tempo attack and Drew Locke finally looking the part a week ago.  Barry Odom took over as the head coach and the defense is still pretty good.  Meanwhile Georgia goes on the road with a freshman QB in Eason?  I'm just not sold on Georgia right now after they were 50 point favorites a week ago and did not cover the spread.  They were down 24-14 against North Carolina and were very lucky to win that game as well.  Missouri's offense could be powerful and dangerous and even capable of a back door cover if they are losing this game, but I can see them winning outright and I thought last week was a good scrimmage for them to get some kinks out of the new offense. 

Michigan State +8 5.5% max rating play

Mark Dantonio has been absolutely money in this situation of being an under dog.  Michigan State is 12-2 ATS as a dog with 9 outright upsets including two last year on the road against Michigan and Ohio State.  He's got plenty of time to prepare for this game, and I see no reason why this defense won't be strong once again.  They have 6 returning starters including Malik McDowell up front to help stop the run.  The linebacking corps is great, and they get Ed Davis returning for his 6th year of eligibility granted by the NCAA.  Shit I couldn't even get 4 years in division 2. 

The key for me is Michigan State stopping the run, and knowing what we know about Michigan State I can confidently say they will be good against the run with all the talent they have coming in along with the fact that they have an extra week to prepare.  Notre Dame was held under 200 yards rushing 7 times last year and averaged 29 points per game as opposed to over 40 ppg when they rushed for more than 200 yards.  To open this season they played Texas and Nevada and ran over 200 yards on both of them so the idea is that this offense is going to be great again, but in comes Michigan State with other plans.

Notre Dame actually did not play well last week despite covering the spread.  It was a 0-0 game after 1 quarter and then Nevada's special teams gave up a long punt return, and they had a safety and before you knew it the score was 25-0 at the half.  Meanwhile Michigan State struggled against Furman in week 1.  I seem to remember them struggling last year against Western Michigan to open the season before beating Oregon in their next game.

The other thing to consider here is the fact that Notre Dame actually returns just 9 starters compared to Michigan State's 10, and they have 10 more letterman than does Notre Dame.  Notre DAme also just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. the Big Ten and Brian Kelly really does not have a lot to go by for this game.  I mean Michigan State has a new QB and they really did not show much against Furman.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame showed quite a bit of their weaknesses in the game against Texas.  If Michigan State does not turn the ball over they cover this game. 

VA TECH / VIRGINIA +10.5 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

VA TECH PK (PART 1 OF TEASER)

I love Virginia Tech as a teaser this week.  There is no way BC vs. a quality defense scares me.  This is a team that even with Patrick Towles is going to be able to score enough to stay with a talented Virginia Tech team that has not covered the spread in back to back weeks because of the bounce of the ball.  Against Tennessee there were 7 total fumbles and they recovered 0 of them.  Justin Fuente is a very good coach and he will be harping on that all week long.  I expect this offense to click as they are better than last year with JUCO transfer QB Jerod Evans.  A dual threat QB with an accurate arm.  That’s enough to give BC some issues here.  They had those issues in road games at Louisville and Clemson a year ago as they were -300 yards in both.  Virginia Tech is absolutely of that caliber in my humble opinion and I think they want to prove something this week.

VIRGINIA +10.5 (PART 2 OF TEASER)

Virginia already showing improvement under Bronco Mendenhall, a coach I can really respect.  It’s worth noting that Mendenhall is very familiar with this Connecticut team having faced them the last two seasons.  I think this is extreme value at +4.5, but I’ll jump on it with the teaser and be even more confident. BYU defeated Uconn the last two years 65-20 and outgained them by 500 yards.  Virginia is a team that always has the recruits, but the coaching under Mike London has never lived up to the potential of the players.  For instance they did not go to a bowl game last year but were +5.1 ypg in conference play in the ACC. Speaking of poor coaching as Uconn was down 21-0 against Navy, but made a comeback for the upset.  Also note teams trying to battle back the following week after playing a service academy is never a very good proposition to be in making the fading of Uconn even more exciting this week.

UTEP +4 3.3% PLAY

Hard for me not to fade Army this week given the facts of their traveling situation and dealing with the mourning of a fallen teammate in Brandon Jackson.  Sometimes it’s just easier to not have to play football.  While I don’t question this Army team whatsoever, I just think UTEP is a heck of a lot better than people realize.  Last week they lost 41-7 against Texas, but their defense looked better, and now they get their QB back this week in Zack Greenlee Jr. who was excellent in week 1 and a transfer from Fresno State.

UTEP has a strong offensive line behind their coach Sean Kuger a former offensive lineman himself and they have an elite RB.  Aaron Jones was lost to injury after 2 games last year, but this is a guy who can be playing at the next level.  He had 18 carries for 123 yards last week, and should be able to run all over Army as UTEP has no problem opening up the offense throwing the ball downfield.  I saw many people running wide open last week when Rice went on the road to play Army.  The Rice QB was just so beyond awful.

While UTEP has questions on the defensive side of the ball the strength is linebacker.  I expect Alvin Jones their top guy to play despite being listed as questionable.  Once again it’s hard to imagine backing Army as a road favorite especially when they are traveling this far for a game the week they lose a teammate.  UTEP, held Texas 3-12 on third down and New Mexico State 5-15 on third down.  Obviously the key in a game vs. Army.  I know they haven’t seen the triple option before, but I like their chances to get enough stops here.

Syracuse +14.5 4.4% Play

This is all about line value here and me liking what I saw from Syracuse in their game against Louisville last week.  Let’s be honest Louisville got off to a rocket 21-0 score, but Syracuse and that up tempo offense hung around as it was a 14 point game in the 4th quarter, before they rattled off 20 straight points.  The final score looks worse than it actually was and this offense will only get better especially the way Eric Dungey looked.  Louisville very stout up front with their size and athleticism and they are one of the best at stopping the run.  It was something missing from this Syracuse offense that I think we see this week.  South Florida allowing 155 yards per game rushing and allowed 4.6 ypc on the road a year ago.  South Florida loses 4 of their front 7 and brings in a new defensive coordinator for the third year in a row.

I honestly can see Syracuse pulling the upset and the oddsmakers are giving South Florida the same type of respect as a top 10 Louisville.  It’s important to note that USF’s offense also struggled when they left the state of Florida a year ago never eclipsing 30 points.  I get they have some talented guys, but they are not the same dynamic offense as Louisville nor do they have the big play threat.  South Florida also looking ahead to their game against Florida State next week while Syracuse has had an extra day to prepare.  This is screaming at me to take the money line, but I will pass this time around, but I don’t see how Syracuse does not cover in this situation.  Syracuse defense can limit the big plays they are still capable of stopping opponents in the red zone and on third down.  They even stopped Louisville on 11 of their 16 third down attempts which I’m sure not many would predict looking at the final box score.

Florida State -1 3.3% PLAY

My algorithms like this one quite a bit with a 27-14 ATS prop over 7 years of data.  After looking at this game in depth I also like it quite a bit.  Lamar Jackson and Louisville are getting tremendous hype right now and that has to have Florida State extremely focused and there is no denying that they simply have more talent overall.  I also think Florida State has been tested and have already overcome adversity in their game against Ole Miss which builds tremendous character on a team especially with a young QB like Deondre Francois, who has show a ton of poise for his experience and is certainly a better passer than Lamar Jackson.

Lamar Jackson is completing 59.7% of his passes.  Watching the Syracuse game I can see why.  He over throw guys plenty of times and there were also drops by some of his receivers.  He only completed 54.7% of his passes a year ago and he faces a Florida State defense that has been a top 15 group year after year.  Sure they got hit with a bad injury by losing Derwin James, but this is a team that has 2 senior starters and has plenty of depth.  It’s not usual for a program like Florida State to be bringing back as many returners as they are with 17 which is just as many as Louisville.

On defense everyone will point to Lamar Jackson and how Florida State struggled in their bowl game against Greg Ward.  People forget Florida State had a ton of guys missing for that bowl game that meant much more to Houston.  Lamar Jackson was a runner last year he had 960 yards rushing.  Florida State held him to 32 yards on 19 carries in their match up a year ago.  I think Florida State is even stronger up front this year and they have already been tested. Louisville’s offense so far has seen Charlotte and Syracuse (who is breaking in a new defensive system).

We mentioned Jackson’s accuracy issues.  The same is not true of Francois who is completing 69% of his passes.  He faced an Ole Miss defense that is miles away from Syracuse/Charlotte, and he showed poise after being down big.  Which is a typical worry with Florida State, but Jimbo Fisher is excellent at making adjustments and I expect them to possibly be down at halftime and come from behind in this one.  The last two years he has outscored Louisville in the second half 70-24.  At the end of the day Jackson is getting too much hype, I don’t like Louisville’s offense to be balanced against a very good defense.  Meanwhile I think Florida State can run the ball here.  They are getting two key offensive lineman back in Kareem Are, and/or Wilson Bell which could be the reason they haven’t looked as good running the ball.  Also note that Francois is clearly a running threat himself.  Louisville is very big in the front 7, but Everett Golson tore this group apart a year ago 372 yards passing 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s while Cook rushed for 163 on 22 carries.  This Flordia State is highly motived to win this game and do it in convincing fashion.

VA TECH / VIRGINIA +10.5 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

VA TECH PK (PART 1 OF TEASER)

I love Virginia Tech as a teaser this week.  There is no way BC vs. a quality defense scares me.  This is a team that even with Patrick Towles is going to be able to score enough to stay with a talented Virginia Tech team that has not covered the spread in back to back weeks because of the bounce of the ball.  Against Tennessee there were 7 total fumbles and they recovered 0 of them.  Justin Fuente is a very good coach and he will be harping on that all week long.  I expect this offense to click as they are better than last year with JUCO transfer QB Jerod Evans.  A dual threat QB with an accurate arm.  That’s enough to give BC some issues here.  They had those issues in road games at Louisville and Clemson a year ago as they were -300 yards in both.  Virginia Tech is absolutely of that caliber in my humble opinion and I think they want to prove something this week.

VIRGINIA +10.5 (PART 2 OF TEASER)

Virginia already showing improvement under Bronco Mendenhall, a coach I can really respect.  It’s worth noting that Mendenhall is very familiar with this Connecticut team having faced them the last two seasons.  I think this is extreme value at +4.5, but I’ll jump on it with the teaser and be even more confident. BYU defeated Uconn the last two years 65-20 and outgained them by 500 yards.  Virginia is a team that always has the recruits, but the coaching under Mike London has never lived up to the potential of the players.  For instance they did not go to a bowl game last year but were +5.1 ypg in conference play in the ACC. Speaking of poor coaching as Uconn was down 21-0 against Navy, but made a comeback for the upset.  Also note teams trying to battle back the following week after playing a service academy is never a very good proposition to be in making the fading of Uconn even more exciting this week.

Baylor -31 2.2% Play

I don’t typically play teams as road favorites this large, but it falls into one of my formula systems that is 18-5 ATS over the last 7 years.  With that said I also like the fact that Baylor has not covered their first two games of the young season which has nothing to do with them slowing anything down.  They ran 103 plays in their last game and really started to click in the second half when they scored 34 of their 40 points.  I think that carries into this game and Rice did not at all impress me last week.  Rice is 95th vs. the run this season and against Army they just were terrible on the perimeter on defense.  On offense Tyler Stehling was very bad completing just 53.3% of his passes.  He missed so many open guys down field and I’m not sold on him being any good.  Stehling and this offense was just 1-10 on third down.  They have short rest coming back from NY while Baylor was in the state of Texas last week. This is an instate game so Baylor really does not have to travel very far for this one.  It looks like their classic blow out.

Cincinnati +8.5 (BOVADA) 3.3% Play

I expect this line to go back up to 8, at most shops,but I grabbed the 8.5 that currently sits at Bovada where I highly recommend you open an account for underdog plays alone. 

I like the Bearcats coming into the season on this game and the fact that Houston upset Oklahoma and is now on the national radar for everyone is truly giving us some line value here.  Nippert Stadium is not an easy place to play by any means.  They are 7-1 at Nippert since 2007 on Thursday nights, and if you do not think it’s difficult to play here just ask Miami last year.  “Some of the coaches from Miami said after the game, ‘We never even counted on that much crowd noise,’ ” Tuberville said. “They play in big stadiums a lot, and they had a tough time with audibling, changing the play and that type of thing. They thought it affected their players.”

Aside from home field advantage and Houston having to travel on a short week.  I actually like the match up here.  Cincinnati had 589 total yards on the road against Houston last year, and Houston’s secondary still shows the same vulnerabilities.  We saw several break downs against Oklahoma.  I know they only allowed 23 points, but that was with an entire offseason to prepare.  Cinci did lose a lot of WR’s, and they gave the starting QB job to Hayden Moore instead of senior Gunner Kiel, but I like this new offense.  Two receivers that Houston has to be worried about is Nate Cole, and Avery Johnson.  Johnson is extremely athletic and can come up with some big catches down field.  He’s the brother of Patrick Peterson of the Arizona Cardinals.

Cinci’s offense lost their coordinator to Kentucky and I think that’s a good thing.  Under Zac Taylor they will move to a more balanced offense of 30+ runs and 30+ passes, and you could see them move with more tempo than a year ago at times.  I think that is enough to give Houston’s defense some issues when preparing for this game.  This is a new situation for Tom Herman as head coach of Houston going on the road on a short week, and they’ll play in front of 40,000 people at night.  Cinci’s defense that gets a lot of bad publicity returns 8 guys, and I think they are good enough to allow Cinci to win this game.  They are extremely timely holding opponents last year to just 30% conversions on third down and 37.5% TD% in the red zone at home.  Those are some big keys if they want to stay in this game.

One last thing to note is the fact that the Bearcats had horrible luck last year.  They were unlucky with the turnovers, and injuries, and they had 3 net close losses.  We are already seeing that luck turn around this year and I think they are a dangerous team in this conference.  I’m not quite going to call for the upset, but this game should be a good one late in the 4th quarter.

WASHINGTON STATE +10.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I like the Cougars to rebound this week after losing to Eastern Washington.  We have your classic sell high buy low situation with Boise State coming off a huge 45-10 win over ULL, and Washington State losing to a FCS school in Eastern Washington.  Look Washington State did the same thing a year ago opening up and losing against Portland State, a team Eastern Washington lost by just 3 points to.  I can’t buy much stock in that since Eastern Washington was likely preparing for that game all summer long.  Under Mike Leach this team is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 following an ATS loss, and they are 12-3 ATS as a road underdog.  Oh and by the way this is a team that has won games on the road against teams like USC, UCLA, Oregon, Utah, Arizona and Cal.  This team that lost to Portland State a year ago, missed a field goal that would have beaten Stanford a year ago.  I also had this line at 6 in favor of Boise before what happened last week which means we are getting over 4.5 points of value through two key numbers of 7 and 10.

Boise State has their own issues this year despite what the media wants to tell you.  I’ll start with the offense that does return 8 guys (So does Washington State’s offense).  They are losing two offensive lineman that were first team All Mountain West and they were at LT, and C probably the two most important positions on an offensive line.  They have a new offensive coordinator, oh wait two co-offensive coordinators in Scott Huff and Zak Hill.  Huff has been with Boise for years and has no experience calling plays, and Zak Hill came over from Hawaii where he was the offensive coordinator a year ago.  Now I understand why they need two guys to run the show.  I’m surprised a team with a brand name like Boise State cannot get better coaching.  I haven’t been sold on Bryan Harsin either and the coaching moves he is able to make makes more sense to me why this team has under achieved since Chris Peterson has left.

As we saw in the opener Washington State’s offense will be just fine.  That leaves things open in this game for a back door cover in case Boise gets up early.  Washington State returns 8 starters, an experienced offensive line and Luke Falk at QB.  Boise State’s defense loses starters in the worst possible places.  They replace their entire defensive line, and 2 of their guys in the secondary that were All Mountain West defensive backs.  Yet, everyone is ready to jump all over Boise State as a dark horse team to get to the college playoff, I think not.  This game should be back and forth, but Washington State’s defensive coordinator Alex Grinch improved this defense 27 spots last year from 2014.  He spent 3 seasons at Missouri helping the secondary and has a bright future.  

VTECH + 11.5 3.3% PLAY

This game actually reminds me of the Oklahoma vs. Houston game a week ago.  We have a team in Tennessee that’s similar to Oklahoma getting a ton of pre-season picks to be a national title contender, but I’m not buying into their head coach Butch Jones who has proven over and over he can’t come up in a big spot.  Meanwhile you have Virginia Tech flying under the radar with a very good head coach in Justin Fuente.  Fuente came over from Memphis last year, and he’s a guy that coaches to his strengths.  He took his Memphis club and they handled Ole Miss at home last year with a relatively easy win.  Ole Miss was one crazy play away from playing in the SEC Championship a year ago.  I just really like the decisions Fuente has made and he was able to keep Bud Foster here as a defensive coordinator which was huge.

Foster, very aware of Tennessee and admits to studying them over the summer and mentioned in the media that he thought they were very vanilla a week ago.  Typically I don’t like to fade a team Tennessee that did not look their best a week ago, but I was all over Appalachian State in my pre-season podcasts.  Did not back them a week ago, but I was not totally shocked that Tennessee’s offense had issues against that defense.  I think we could see more of that this week, and Virginia Tech is a much better offense.

Virginia Tech returns 8 starters, and they bring in a JUCO transfer in Jerod Evans who posted 38 TD’s and 3 INT’s last year.  Evans is a mobile QB that will benefit from having talent around him, but I don’t see Fuente, an offensive minded guy asking him to do too much.

There are a ton of intangibles to break down in this game.  For on this game is at Birstol Speedway which is in Tennessee, but both campuses are nearly identical distances from the speedway which will feature a crowd of nearly 150,000 breaking the old record for a college football game in 2013.  I also think all the pressure is on Tennessee and we have seen teams coached by Butch Jones crumble under that pressure.  I mean they were 4 plays away from being undefeated a year ago.  They trailed against a Sun Belt team late last week.  Also worth noting is teams that were big favorites the week before that go into OT are just 18-40 ATS the following week.  I had this game around 7 or 7.5, but it’s all the way up to 11 despite Tennessee and I think we get value here.  Virginia Tech dominated Liberty a week ago allowing just 160 yards, and Liberty beat 2 top 10 FCS teams a year ago.  Tennessee also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the ACC.  Enjoy the game it should be a close one.

Miss State -1 /North Carolina -1.5 4.4% Teaser of the Week

Miss State – Buy low sell high situation here with South Carolina upsetting Vanderbilt on the road as a dog.  Will Muschamp in 4 seasons at Florida had a win as a dog on the road just one time.  I don’t see him doing it in back to back games with a very inexperienced South Carolina team that returns just 9 starters.  Miss State loses to South Alabama, but they were up 17-0 in that game.  I’m not real sure what happened, because they averaged 7 yards per carry, but I think this team comes out a little pissed off here at home against an SEC foe they know they must beat.

I really like what Dan Mullen has accomplished here over the last 3 years.  Miss State is 1 of just 3 SEC teams that finished each of the last three season with +YPG in conference play.  Miss State obviously has to replace Dak Prescott, but the recruiting and depth is there.  In pre-season Miss State would have been a 13 to 14 point favorite, but instead we are catching them at 7, which gives us tremendous value on a teaser.  This is the exact strategy I use to get to 21-5 record on teasers the last 2 seasons.

North Carolina -1.5  Teaser

It’s going to take more than just one game for me to buy into Lovie Smith and Illinois.  They won 52-3 against Murray State, a team that had 3 wins all of last year in FCS.  North Carolina is a top 15 team.  This is a team that returns 14 starters compared to Illinois 11.  They were up 24-14 on Georgia, a team with a very strong defense, and unfortunately the Tarheels defense gave up some big plays late that cost them the game.  I don’t think they have to worry about that this week with Illinois.  Illinois actually returns 57% letterman which is 125th in the country.  While North Carolina has a lot of talent as I mentioned 14 starters, but 4 on the offensive line which includes 129 career starts.  They have a 5 star RB in Elijah Wood, two solid receivers in Bug Howard, and Ryan Switzer and a QB that did not look good last week thus giving us in my opinion value on the line here.

There is no look ahead for North Carolina a team that I don’t think will be suffering from a hang over here.  Everything they played for in the offseason is there for the taking if they run the table.  If you have listened to me in the off season I am very high on the ACC, a conference that returns more letterman than any other conference.  Big 10 lost a lot of talent last year and while Illinois has an experienced offense returning I don’t see them keeping up with North Carolina offense that put 48 up on them a year ago.  UNC was #1 in the nation a year ago with 7.1 yards per play.  Illinois is just not ready to upset a top 15 team in my opinion and are 6-16 ATS following an ATS win. 

BYU / UTAH UNDER 45 2.2% PLAY

I am going under the total in this game as I think there is some line value with the strengths of both teams being on the defensive side of the ball.  Most will look at the bowl game from last year between these two and see a 35-28 final in favor of Utah, but Utah had just 35 points.  I would lean towards Utah at home with the extra time to prepare, but I need to see more out of the 4 star QB Troy Williams who transferred from a JUCO college.  BYU, tons of experience back on offense so I can see why they are getting a lot of love from the sharps, but this is a massive coaching advantage for BYU with Kyle Whittingham over Kalani Sitake.  Sitake was running around the stadium last week after their “big win” over Arizona.  I don’t know how much I like that, and although he’s familiar with Utah, I would think Whittingham is just as familiar with Sitake. 

Also BYU is moving from an up tempo spread offense back to a pro style offense under Ty Detmer, but they still have the same guys in there in Taysom Hill and Jamal Williams who feel like they have been here for a decade.  This offense struggled with 5.2 yards per play against Arizona’s defense that was 116th in the nation.  

TCU / Arkansas U58.5 2.2% play

I like the under in this game and I think we are getting some value here when you consider TCU just put up 59 points and allowed 41.  What’s hidden in that is the fact that TCU returns just 2 offensive starters albeit they get transfer QB Kenny Hill.  Arkansas also has a lot to replace on offense including their star RB, and 3 year starter QB.  They have depth at receiver, but that’s not really Brett Bielema’s offensive strategy.  He likes to slow the game down and I think that’s exactly what he will try to do here given that the strength of this team is on the defensive side of the ball.

Arkansas returns 9 defensive starters and this defense should resemble 2014 when they were very good.  Both coaches have built their reputation on defense before becoming head coaches and their last match up was in the 2011 Rose Bowl a 21-19 victory for Gary Paterson over Wisconsin.  I just think asking these two teams to score a bunch of points with new offensive lines and new QB’s is too much.  I also don’t see either coach getting extremely aggressive since this is a big game for both teams and could set up the rest of the season.  In my opinion these are top 30 defenses that looked like bottom 30 defenses a week ago and we get some value on the total here. 

Miss State -1 /North Carolina -1.5 4.4% Teaser of the Week

Miss State – Buy low sell high situation here with South Carolina upsetting Vanderbilt on the road as a dog.  Will Muschamp in 4 seasons at Florida had a win as a dog on the road just one time.  I don’t see him doing it in back to back games with a very inexperienced South Carolina team that returns just 9 starters.  Miss State loses to South Alabama, but they were up 17-0 in that game.  I’m not real sure what happened, because they averaged 7 yards per carry, but I think this team comes out a little pissed off here at home against an SEC foe they know they must beat.

I really like what Dan Mullen has accomplished here over the last 3 years.  Miss State is 1 of just 3 SEC teams that finished each of the last three season with +YPG in conference play.  Miss State obviously has to replace Dak Prescott, but the recruiting and depth is there.  In pre-season Miss State would have been a 13 to 14 point favorite, but instead we are catching them at 7, which gives us tremendous value on a teaser.  This is the exact strategy I use to get to 21-5 record on teasers the last 2 seasons.

North Carolina -1.5  Teaser

It’s going to take more than just one game for me to buy into Lovie Smith and Illinois.  They won 52-3 against Murray State, a team that had 3 wins all of last year in FCS.  North Carolina is a top 15 team.  This is a team that returns 14 starters compared to Illinois 11.  They were up 24-14 on Georgia, a team with a very strong defense, and unfortunately the Tarheels defense gave up some big plays late that cost them the game.  I don’t think they have to worry about that this week with Illinois.  Illinois actually returns 57% letterman which is 125th in the country.  While North Carolina has a lot of talent as I mentioned 14 starters, but 4 on the offensive line which includes 129 career starts.  They have a 5 star RB in Elijah Wood, two solid receivers in Bug Howard, and Ryan Switzer and a QB that did not look good last week thus giving us in my opinion value on the line here.

There is no look ahead for North Carolina a team that I don’t think will be suffering from a hang over here.  Everything they played for in the offseason is there for the taking if they run the table.  If you have listened to me in the off season I am very high on the ACC, a conference that returns more letterman than any other conference.  Big 10 lost a lot of talent last year and while Illinois has an experienced offense returning I don’t see them keeping up with North Carolina offense that put 48 up on them a year ago.  UNC was #1 in the nation a year ago with 7.1 yards per play.  Illinois is just not ready to upset a top 15 team in my opinion and are 6-16 ATS following an ATS win. 

TCU / Arkansas U58.5 2.2% play

I like the under in this game and I think we are getting some value here when you consider TCU just put up 59 points and allowed 41.  What’s hidden in that is the fact that TCU returns just 2 offensive starters albeit they get transfer QB Kenny Hill.  Arkansas also has a lot to replace on offense including their star RB, and 3 year starter QB.  They have depth at receiver, but that’s not really Brett Bielema’s offensive strategy.  He likes to slow the game down and I think that’s exactly what he will try to do here given that the strength of this team is on the defensive side of the ball.

Arkansas returns 9 defensive starters and this defense should resemble 2014 when they were very good.  Both coaches have built their reputation on defense before becoming head coaches and their last match up was in the 2011 Rose Bowl a 21-19 victory for Gary Paterson over Wisconsin.  I just think asking these two teams to score a bunch of points with new offensive lines and new QB’s is too much.  I also don’t see either coach getting extremely aggressive since this is a big game for both teams and could set up the rest of the season.  In my opinion these are top 30 defenses that looked like bottom 30 defenses a week ago and we get some value on the total here.

Miss State -1 /North Carolina -1.5 4.4% Teaser of the Week

Miss State – Buy low sell high situation here with South Carolina upsetting Vanderbilt on the road as a dog.  Will Muschamp in 4 seasons at Florida had a win as a dog on the road just one time.  I don’t see him doing it in back to back games with a very inexperienced South Carolina team that returns just 9 starters.  Miss State loses to South Alabama, but they were up 17-0 in that game.  I’m not real sure what happened, because they averaged 7 yards per carry, but I think this team comes out a little pissed off here at home against an SEC foe they know they must beat.

I really like what Dan Mullen has accomplished here over the last 3 years.  Miss State is 1 of just 3 SEC teams that finished each of the last three season with +YPG in conference play.  Miss State obviously has to replace Dak Prescott, but the recruiting and depth is there.  In pre-season Miss State would have been a 13 to 14 point favorite, but instead we are catching them at 7, which gives us tremendous value on a teaser.  This is the exact strategy I use to get to 21-5 record on teasers the last 2 seasons.

North Carolina -1.5  Teaser

It’s going to take more than just one game for me to buy into Lovie Smith and Illinois.  They won 52-3 against Murray State, a team that had 3 wins all of last year in FCS.  North Carolina is a top 15 team.  This is a team that returns 14 starters compared to Illinois 11.  They were up 24-14 on Georgia, a team with a very strong defense, and unfortunately the Tarheels defense gave up some big plays late that cost them the game.  I don’t think they have to worry about that this week with Illinois.  Illinois actually returns 57% letterman which is 125th in the country.  While North Carolina has a lot of talent as I mentioned 14 starters, but 4 on the offensive line which includes 129 career starts.  They have a 5 star RB in Elijah Wood, two solid receivers in Bug Howard, and Ryan Switzer and a QB that did not look good last week thus giving us in my opinion value on the line here.

There is no look ahead for North Carolina a team that I don’t think will be suffering from a hang over here.  Everything they played for in the offseason is there for the taking if they run the table.  If you have listened to me in the off season I am very high on the ACC, a conference that returns more letterman than any other conference.  Big 10 lost a lot of talent last year and while Illinois has an experienced offense returning I don’t see them keeping up with North Carolina offense that put 48 up on them a year ago.  UNC was #1 in the nation a year ago with 7.1 yards per play.  Illinois is just not ready to upset a top 15 team in my opinion and are 6-16 ATS following an ATS win. 

Rice +8.5 3.3%

We have line value in this game as Rice lost at Western Kentucky 46-14 and ATS by 13 points while Army won in the national spotlight as a double digit under dog over Temple beating the spread by 30 points.  I was on Army last week as a top play, but now I am looking to fade this team.  Army is 17-36-1 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up win.  While I think Army is going to a bowl game this year, I don’t think they should be favored by more than a TD here against a Rice squad that has plenty of size.

Rice’s offense should be just fine this week, they have everyone on the offensive line on the two deep at 290lbs or more.  They brought in a 380, and 376lb lineman over the last 2 recruiting classes and I look for them to use their advantage.  I don’t think they are as bad as they looked a week ago.  Western Kentucky is the cream of the crop in Conference USA despite losing their star QB Brandon Doughty.  Western Kentucky has plenty of talent returning 8 offensive starters. 

Rice beat Army the last two years and are very familiar with the triple option.  They return 16 starters overall, 9 on defense.  The defense was awful last year, but they had lots of injuries and can only improve.  They are familiar with stopping this defense as they like to take chances and get Army into 3rd and longs.  They held Army to 4-15 on third and fourth downs last year and that’s the big key once again this year if Rice wants to pull the upset.

Either way Army should not be a favorite they play a very slow tempo, while Rice is used to getting off nearly 80 plays per game so a back door cover is not out of question if Army is able to take the lead early.  I also think it’s important to note that Army who beat Temple really struggled early in that game on defense.  Temple also did not have the services of their best offensive player in RB Jahad Thomas who is electric.  Army also missed 2 field goals 

Syracuse +14.5 4.4% POD; Syracuse +480 0.5%

This seems like a perfect storm for an upset with Syracuse hosting Louisville on a Friday night the week before they will host Florida State.  Talk about a look ahead spot.  Right now you can grab Syracuse at +480 and that’s exactly what we will do as a little extra.  The Carrier Dome is a tough place to play and I really like the moves Syracuse made brining in Dino Babers the offensive guru.

Babers coming over from Bowling Green studied under Art Briles for 4 years and runs a high pace offense that is capable of putting up a lot of points.  Watch out for Syracuse at home.  Even if they are in a spot to win they will be capable of the backdoor cover here, but I don’t think that will be needed.  Brian Ward comes in as the defensive coordinator, he was Baber’s guy a year ago and dramatically improved that defense from 97th to 46th.  He’s used to coaching defense with a fast paced offense.  Louisville does not really see a team like this so it will be interested how they handle any loss of momentum. 

Louisville looked great a week ago coming out with a 56-0 first half on a Thursday night when most public bettors were watching and they most certainly remember.  Syracuse sort of got loss in the midst of Friday night and only covered the spread by 2.5 points. QB Eric Dungey looked great, and Syracuse has tons of options at receiver, and I love their experience in the secondary and on this team overall as they return 90% of their production from a year ago.  I think Dino Babers gets a jump start on the turn around here at Syracuse and comes up with a big upset on Friday night.  Much like we predicted with Army in week 1. 

Florida State -6 3.3% PLAY

I really like the Seminoles here they are just a team that's ready and a team that is so deep compared with Ole Miss.  Ole Miss has the QB edge, and I think we may be getting some value here because of Chad Kelly.  Kelly also went on the road to defeat Alabama a year ago, but he is now playing behind a completely rebuilt offensive line with 0 starters returning.  Kelly gets to throw to a terrific group of receivers no doubt, but he lost his top target and team leader Treadwell.  I just think this team is one dimensional at this point.  They have not proven to me that they can run the ball and that will leave a lot of questions marks in this game against a very talented Florida State team that has 17 returning starters.  

Florida State has 5 star athletes at every position led by Dalvin Cook.  I think Cook is the Heisman favorite as he runs behind the deepest, and best offensive line in the country.  It's a two deep group that returns everyone.  The average starting weight of this offensive line is 320.6 lbs.  I think the addition of Deondre Francois is going to make this offense pretty dynamic.  It's the running and throwing threat they have not had in years past.  Francois has plenty of receivers to throw to with three 5 star guys in the mix.  Ole Miss defense had to replace 6 guys on defense and are vulnerable up front.  Ole Miss team consists of 3 and 4 star guys, while Florida State has 4 and 5.  The talent edge is undeniable, and the experience and maturity seems to be there.  I see a double digit win unless Deondre Francois disappoints, but I seeing what he has around him I don't think that will be the case! 

Texas +4.5 3.3% play

I like Texas in this spot to do a little revenge against Notre Dame who opened up last season with a 38-3 victory.  This time it will be a lot closer as most of Texas team is back, and those freshman and sophomores that Charlie Strong recruited are now sophomores and juniors.  Notre Dame, loses a ton on both sides of the ball including their best play maker in CJ Prossie, 3 offensive lineman.  Their 3 best defensive players in the front 7 in Sheldon Day and Jaylon Smith.  I think this Notre Dame defense is extremely questionable which just really makes like what Texas is doing that much more. 

Texas will change their offensive identity.  Finally!  They bring in Sterling Gilbert, who I think is simply a great hire.  Gilbert was at Tulsa last year under Phil Montgomery (previously of Baylor), and that offense improved from 93rd in yards per play in 2014 to 37th a year ago.  This will be an uptempo attack, and I think Notre Dame could have some issues playing defense here on the road.

I also think we are getting value on Texas, because of how their season went the last two years.  I think they are a season away, but they showed glimpses a year ago, and their 3 loses at home were by a combined score of 7 points.  This is a team that beat Baylor on the road to close out the year as a 21 point under dog, and also beat Oklahoma as a 16 point under dog.  I'm not a big fan of backing Big 12 teams if I can avoid it, but Texas should be in better position to pull the upset here.

Auburn +8 4.4% play

I saw Auburn at +8 at a couple books and I had to grab it.  Despite all of the big games in week 1 being at neutral fields this one is not.  Clemson Tigers will be going on the road to face a talented Auburn team that under performed a year ago.  This Auburn team has all of the pieces it did a year ago, from a team that was supposed to contend for a national championship.  Unfortunately the defense was rarely healthy, and the QB situation was awful.  Shaun White started to get better, but then he too got hurt.  White was named the starter, and I expect him to have a big day against Clemson’s defense.  Clemson loses their pass rush with Kevin Dodd, and Shaq Lawson gone, and their top corner in Mackensie Alexander.  This is where Auburn is going to stay in this game in my opinion.

Defensively Auburn is just stacked.  For instance they have five 5 star guys on the defensive line alone and a 5 star linebacker in junior Tre Williams.  Some are calling for this defense to be their best since the 80’s.  If this unit stays healthy they can beat any team in the country.  Carl Lawson is the key though.  He played half of the games last year, but when hew as in the game he was a difference maker.  The fact that Clemson has to replace 3 offensive lineman could be an issue in their first game going up against a talented front.

At the end of the day Clemson still has Deshaun Watson who I have always been high on.  I backed Clemson in the title game, and the game against Oklahoma that got them there and cashed in.  I’m going to fade them here. I think they can squeak away with a victory, but 8 points is too many against a team that has more talent than they do.  I don’t think people realize and that’s why the spread is where it is. Major value here on Auburn.

UCLA / Texas A&M Under 55 2.2% PLAY

I am definitely excited to watch this game and I loved UCLA in my pre-season studies, but after looking at this game more and more I think it’s a toss up.  A&M will have it’s most experienced team in years although there are many questions on the offensive side of the ball.  They have a new QB, new RB, and they have to replace 3 offensive lineman.  Meanwhile UCLA returns 88% of their defensive production including Eddie Vanderdoes at DT who is coming back from injury and is their best defensive player.

UCLA’s offense too has question marks at RB, they have to replace their top 2 targets at WR.  They also have to replace 3 offensive lineman and they are going up against a very strong defense in Texas A&M.  A defense that is loaded led by Myles Garret at DE.  I don’t see UCLA getting too aggressive here with the play calling considering those facts along with having to play this game on the road at the biggest stadium in college football.  It’s a lot to ask of UCLA and Josh Rosen.

Both of these defenses were excellent in red zone defense and I expect the same to be true this year.  A&M held opponents to 44% TD’s in the red zone, 38% at home.  While UCLA despite all of their injuries held opponents to 53%.  This should be a very good game and although these teams typically like to push the pace I’m predicting it to be a close low scoring game. 

Houston +12.5  3.3% PLAY

I was personally hoping to get this game at 14, but anything over 10 and I am extremely confident.  Actually I think Houston could win this game outright despite all the hype they are getting in the pre-season.  Oklahoma is actually getting more hype which if you have followed this program under Bob Stoops you know that is not a good thing.  They typically under achieve when they are expected to do big things.

First of all let’s talk about the coaching here in Bob Stoops vs. Tom Herman.  I really like Herman, from the Meyer coaching tree, and an offensive guru.  Todd Orlando returns as defensive coordinator for Houston (came over from Utah State a year ago), and so does their offensive coordinator Applewhite.  Talk about unfinished business.  Both guys are motivated to move on to be head coaches and that means a lot to me when handicapping these match ups.  Oklahoma also has their guys returning in Mike Stopps, and Lincoln Riley.

I thought it was very interesting that Houston actually got a top 10 recruit in Ed Oliver, a 5 star guy who passed on Oklahoma.  That has to say a lot about Herman and this program.  They also get Duke Catalon, a 4 star guy coming over from Texas.  Both teams have guys they are replacing in similar fashion, but return their best players as Houston returns Greg Ward, while Oklahoma has Baker Mayfield coming back.  Houston has to replace a lot in their secondary, while Oklahoma is replacing nearly all of their LB’s.  Both teams lean towards the run heavily at over 55% play calling with Houston at 60% a year ago.  Stopping the run is very important and Houston has that ability ranking 10th a year ago.  I think their front 7 is actually better than a year ago.  While Oklahoma ranked 33rd, I have some huge questions marks about how they match up here.

Oklahoma struggles with dual threat QB’s, or running QB’s.  Actually the QB just has to be athletic and it does not even matter if there is a passing game.  Well Houston has Greg Ward who is 1 of 2 QB’s from a year ago who threw for more than 2,000 yards and ran for over 1,000 yards.  The other guy Deshaun Watson destroyed Oklahoma in the college football playoff with 145 rushing yards and we know who lost that game.  Oklahoma in another big game, arguably their second biggest game of 2015 against Texas in what is known as the “Red River Rivalry,”  They opened up as huge favorites in that game, but Javon Heard took over in the 24-17 victory for Texas as the QB ran for 115 yards on 21 carries.

All I’m saying is I don’t trust Oklahoma with big expectations.  I think Houston can really put a scare in Oklahoma and have a chance to win this game.  I can’t see them coming out flat in this game at NRG Stadium, 5 miles from campus.  If you still need convincing.. I’m not big on the Big 12 and haven’t been for years.  Oklahoma nearly lost to TCU at home last year.  Which is not all that bad except for the fact that TCU was missing their star QB Boykin, and star WR Doctson. 

Missouri +10.5  5.5% Play of the Day

This is far too many points for a top 10 defense that returns 6 of their front 7 on defense.  This is a defense that despite ranking 118th in time of possession was 3rd in yards per play allowed.  Their defensive coordinator Bary Odom takes over as the head coach and there is a lot to be excited about with this team with a chance to pull off an upset in week 1.

Obviously pre-season and media hype is typically about offense and that’s why I think the spread is where it is for this game.  West Virginia typically has a good offense especially under Dana Holgorsen and many are calling for his best offense with an experienced offensive line and senior QB, but I’m not sold.  You all are aware of my feelings on the Big 12, and the Mountaineers are just 9-9 the last two years in this conference now going up against the SEC’s top defense other than Alabama.  West Virginia has struggled against top 40 defenses from a yards per play perspective going 1-9 over the last 3 years, 0-7 over the last two years.  Missouri is just that, but what about their offense?

Listen Missouri was awful on offense last year, and I expect them to score a TD more per game with Drew Lock coming back at QB.  The 4 star QB put on 20 lbs, and gets two key transfers along with his top 2 targets at WR back.  Alex Ross, a 4 star guy comes over to play RB from Oklahoma, and WR, Chris Black another 4 star guy comes over from Alabama.  The offense will improve despite a rebuilt offensive line which can only be a good thing when you look at what they did a year ago.  I just hope this Missouri team runs the ball more and they could win this game outright when you consider Josh Heupel taking over the offense, and West Virginia losing 7 starters on defense. 

Army +15 4.4% NCAAF Play of the Day

This could be the best Army team since 1996, at least offensively.  Jeff Monken played so many of his young recruits in previous years that this Army team has the most veterans in over 10 years.  Army, showed a lot of potential down the stretch and we spoke about them a ton in our pre-season podcasts.  They had 7 loses a year ago by 7 points or less so they are very well capable of staying in games.  You could argue they should have won the Army/Navy game.  On defense they return 9 starters, which is their most in 25 years.

Temple on the other hand should be good again and their defense should be good, but this is a tough draw for week 1.  Especially since this team did not face Navy last year, and they go from being ranked #9 in returning experience in 2015 to #66 in 2016.  They lose their best defensive player in Matakevich, and they bring in a new offensive coordinator.  I just don’t see a lot of points in this game, and the last time Temple faced a triple option team in 2014 they gave up 487 yards rushing.

Both these teams were ranked at the bottom of the nation in pace.  Army 128th, with Temple at 95.  It will be hard for Temple to win this game going away and that’s what the oddsmakers are predicting.  

FIU +9 2.2% PLAY 

If you wait you may be able to catch Florida International at 10 points.  During the pre-season I mentioned how much I liked Indiana on multiple podcasts, but I see tremendous value in backing FIU on Thursday night.  For one this game is going to be played in Miami.  The heat could play a factor, but this is a long trip for Indiana, and it's hard to see them being excited for this game.  This is a team that struggled to beat Southern Illinois at home to open up last season and they only beat FIU 36-22 a year ago at home.  

There really is a lot to like about Indiana this year with 16 starters returning, but I think they will have value later in the year.  There are question marks with three of their best players missing on offense.  RB Jordan Howard, drafted by the Bears, Nate Sudfeld, drafted by the Redskins, and OT Jason Spriggs drafted by the Packers in the 2nd round all gone.  They bring in a big juco transfer in Richard Lagow to be the QB, but this is his 4th school and conference for a reason.. I do think he will thrive in Kevin Wilson offense, but it's not going to happen from day 1.  I don't think it's enough to overcome the yearly defense issues this team has to win by double digits on the road.

FIU, had serious issues last year with injury luck.  That has created depth for 2016 and I expect them to over achieve against the odds.  I really like what Ron Turner has done here in his 4th year they have improved from 1 win, 4 wins, to 5 wins and are poised to make a bowl game.  Unlike Indiana they have a QB starting for his third year in Alex McGough.  The offense is likely to improve again as it did last year by 6 points per game.  The defense I think will get back to 2014 when they were really good.  Factor in that the defense lost 3 of their top 5 DB's, and 2 of their starting LB played a total of 5 games.  The offense also had injury issues with 3 starting offensive linemen combined for 9 total starts.  This year they have a strong group up front and should have some balance.  The offense was a dink and dunk type last year and the year before they ran the ball a ton so I expect a combination of that in 2016.  In 2014 they ran the ball 65% of time transitioning to 45% in 2015.  To me that is signs of a good coach.  They had to move towards the pass given their injury situation and what they had to work with.  2016, if this team can stay healthy will be the best yet under Turner.   I expect them to be able to give Indiana a scare here.

Hawaii +20.5 2.2% PLAY

This game is in Syndey Australia – Look aheads for California.  Weather 55 degrees.  I don’t think Hawaii is ever as bad, but it’s their scheduling that’s really challenging  This team opened up and beat Colorado a year ago and after that they really struggled.  The traveling takes it’s toll, but luckily we are handicapping game 1 of the season.

California – 9 returning starters.  They lose Jarred Goff, despite Sonny Dykes offense being very good typically and the fact that they bring in a capable QB replacement in Davis Webb.  I think this is a team that has to run a little more, they lose their top 6 WR’s, they lose a few starters on the offensive line.  They made some strides on the defensive side, but now just 5 returning starters and their Safety Drew tore his ACL in the spring.  They lost their top 7 starters on defense.  Vegas odds has them at 4.5 total wins, they are not high on this team, but that’s hidden with this point spread.

Hawaii, on the other hand get a new coach in Nick Rolovich.  At 36, Rolovich is one of FBS' youngest head coaches, but what he lacks in volume of experience, he makes up for with relevant experience. As a player, low-level assistant, and offensive coordinator, he's been exposed to what it takes to win at Hawaii.  The last few years they have been bad, and this is a very difficult job when you look at the amount of travel and their opponents the first week of the season, but  Hawaii has covered spreads vs. PAC 12 teams in the past going 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. PAC 12.  They have 9 returning starters on the offense and it should improve with the new coaching while the defense also retaining a lot of their production from a year ago.  I also like the fact that they were a bend but don’t break group.  Meaning they did not give up a lot of big plays and seems to be what will happen again this year.

X-factor’s… Hawaii has an excellent special teams unit is a strength led by the punter Rigoberto Sanchez who averaged 45 yards per punt.  Overall they had a top 20 special teams unit a year ago and the same should be true in 2016.  The other thing I look for improvement on is the turnover luck.  They were -23 a year ago and that’s unlucky.  Look for that to change as this team will clearly be more competitive. 

Clemson +7 5.5* NCAAF POD

The game between Michigan State and Alabama very well could have been 10-7 or even 0-0 at the half, but everything went Alabamas way at the end of the half with the interception with Michigan State trying to go in with an interception.  That was a huge momentum change in this game with Alabama taking the ball to start the second half.

They give up the TD to start the second half and go down 17-0, I think they came out with the running game was a little stupid for the Spartans offense that had so much success on their last drive before the half before throwing an interception. I thought at that point they needed to hand it over to cook and go no huddle, because it allowed Alabamas front to have issues and they had success moving the ball.  But they were not agressive enough and the game got further away and it almost seemed like Michigan State was beaten in the first 5 minutes of the third quarter.  During the game there are a few things I noted and compared with Clemson as reasons why I feel completely comfortable backing Clemson in this game.

Michigan State receivers also had many drops. I like the fact that Deshaun Watson can spread the ball around more to his receivers finding the weakness in the defense, and he’ll have more balance with the running game that should keep Alabama’s defense on edge.

Michigan State’s special teams.  Nearly every game Alabama has made a play in their special teams to change the game, and again it happened in the third quarter against the Spartans on a punt return TD.  Michigan State had one of the worst STE in the country at 108th,  Clemson is at 89th not much better, but I don’t see Alabama again making those type of plays against Clemson.  Clemson is very poor in kick off return coverage allowing 2 TD’s on the season, but that’s not at all where Alabama excels.  In fact Alabama has only averaged 18.94 yards per kick off return.  Alabama has 5 TD’s on punt returns this year and that’s where the danger is, but enter Clemson’s punt return coverage which is very good only allowing 15 returns on the season for 85 yards where Michigan State allowed well over 250 yards and 2 TD’s with an average of 12.81.  I think Clemson can eliminate the special teams game for Alabama although they may sacrifice some field position.

Michigan State found a weakness.Before the half Michigan State picked up the pace and let Connor Cook run the offense and it did not allow Alabama to substitute along their defensive line which is the reason they are so strong.  Depth is probably Alabama’s biggest strength.  Michigan State is not used to moving fast and of course they did not make that adjustment in the second half of this game.  Clemson however will likely use that in my opinion and it will come a lot more natural to them with the 13th ranked pace in the country (Michigan State is 70th).  With that fact comes time of possession and Michigan State defense was on the field way too much.  I think Clemson will have an easier time despite being 13th in pace they are actually 23rd in ball control with 32:23 minutes of TOP, but 34:58 over their last 3 games.  Alabama is 4th and this could be what decides this game overall, but I don’t see it being lopsided like it was in the Cotton Bowl.

Michigan States offensive line struggled against a 4 man rush.  Is Clemson’s offense line better or just as good?  Well let’s look at the numbers.  Clemson’s offensive line is ranked 8th in sack rate at 3.06% which is extremely impressive.  Most systems with mobile QB’s have a very high sack rate, but they are top 10 in the country (Alabama is 42nd), Michigan State was 32nd.  Clemson is also ranked very high in adjusted line yards at #9, 12th on standard downs, 27th on passing downs, 5th in power success and so on.  To put those numbers in perspective Michigan State ranks 49th in adjusted line yards, 93rd on standard down, 65th on passing downs, and 14th in power success.  Overall I would say this is the best offensive line Alabama’s defensive line has had to face from a numbers perspective and vice versa.

Can Clemson stop the run like Michigan State? Spartans stopped the run of Henry holding him to under 100 yards just as I predicted, but Coker just ripped them up going 25-30 against the man defense.  Clemson can absolutely do the same thing in the running game.  Clemson was impressive in the game against Oklahoma despite losing their best DE in Shaq Lawson who I expect to play on Monday.  Even if he doesn’t Clemson’s line held up well against Oklahoma who was a top 20 rushing offense.  Clemson is ranked 25th in rushing defense, 13th in rushing S&P+ and has faced many top rushing programs including 6 in the top 30 (3 in the top 15).  Florida State is the only team that got close to their season average and they did so on 1 long play from a more explosive RB in Cook.  Clemson absolutely should be able to force this into a game where Coker beats them.

Is Clemson secondary more talented? Do they give up the big plays like Michigan State struggled with.  This could be the biggest question that decides this game, because Michigan State was very highly regarded, but their secondary obviously was not as good this year.  Clemson ranks 2nd overall in completion % (Mich State 85th), 7th in opposing QB passer rating (Michigan State 68th), 15th in passing yards allowed per attempt (Michigan State 77th).  Clemson has some big safeties and can spend a lot of time in the nickel without the threat of giving up big running plays due to the size of their safeties Jayron Kearse is 6’4 and 210lbs and Travis Blanks is a hybrid LB that is probably the X factor here who can cover Alabama’s TE.  There is a reason why Clemson was #1 in opponent third down conversion % on the year.

Can Clemson have a better day rushing the passer? There were times in the game where Michigan State was just a half second too slow.  That may be where the difference of 4 star athletes will come in to play.  Clemson has the 3rd ranked sack rate unit right behind Alabama.  They sacked Oklahoma on 10.42% of their drop backs, and Alabama is 42nd in protecting their QB an obvious risk for them if they are going to come out throwing the ball.  Overall I have complete faith in Brent Venables as a defensive coordinator getting Clemson into the right situations.  He’s been doing this a long long time where Michigan State has two co-defensive coordinators something I would not like.

Coker got way too comfortable against Michigan State and I don’t see that happening here against Clemson who have better athletes and a better secondary to frustrate this offense.

What did I notice from Clemson’s game?  Clemson clearly has a better running offense with the added dynamic of Watson, as their RB is very under rated running the option Watson and RB Wayne Gallman have both rushed for more than 1,000 yards.  However, Watson is the best player on the field and the best QB Alabama has faced.  Alabama’s defense has recruited to stop this type of QB, but they haven’t really seen anyone quite like Watson.  Watson has really impressed me on the field and off the field and I think he’s just as good of a thrower.  He’s made the occasional mistake including the dumb throw before the half against Oklahoma, but in big games this year his team has taken care of the ball.  Notre Dame, Florida State, UNC, and Oklahoma they are +7 in TO margin and +1 or more in each of those games.  Clemson can be positive in this next game and they will be national champions. Watson also just as good throwing the ball if not better than Cook.

Clemson just seems like a team of destiny to me.  Although it will not be easy.  I think this is a close game no matter how you look at it. Clemson really could have named their score against Oklahoma.  They had arguably the more impressive game against a better opponent.  However, they still feel like they are being disrespected.  This game is and should be a hell of a game, but my money is on Clemson to shock the nation.

NOTE: If you can’t get this at +7 wait and monitor the line movements.  Public money should push this back up to 7 at some point over the weekend or on Monday, but I would still be a buyer at +6.5.

West Virginia -1 3.3* play

The metrics love West Virginia and there has been a lot of sharp money coming in on them as well despite having to travel to Arizona to play Arizona State, 20 minutes away from their campus.  West Virginia however enters with arguably the best defense that Arizona State has played all year and they do so without their offensive coordinator Mike Norvell who will be missed in this game.  West Virginia held many teams on their schedule to their season lows in points including - Texas Tech, Iowa State, Kansas, Maryland, and Georgia Southern.  This is a defense that can stop the pass and the run and will for Mike Berchovici to beat them, and I don't think it's possible.

West Virginia has allowed an 86 QB rating in wins, and a 144 in losses.  Berchovici is clearly the key here, but I'm betting West Virginia will force him into some mistakes.  West Virginia is +11 in TO margin and forced 31 on the season.  Arizona State can't win this game if it turns defensive as they are 1-4 when being held under 30 points.  Offensively West Virginia will have some issues dealing with the Arizona State's front 7 which loves to sell out on the blitz, but it really hasn't helped them as they have allowed over 30 points on average.  Their pass defense is pretty bad and with over a month to prepare I'm betting the offensive guru Dana Holgorsen can figure out a few different ways to attack through the air despite liking to run the ball more this year.  At the end of the day West Virginia is the more balanced team, and I think the line at -2 is really suggesting so when you consider the oddsmakers loved the PAC 12 and it's evident in some of the lines they have released but in this game it's the opposite with two comparable teams playing.  I also think it's interesting that West Virginia is a favorite here in what most people are calling a home game for Arizona State.  It just doesn't all add up and for that reason I like West Virginia more.

Kansas State +13 3.3* play

It's hard not to go with a Bill Snyder coached team as a double digit under dog.  This spread is inflated for good reasons as this is one of Snyder's worst teams from a talent perspective, but it's still Bill Snyder and he will have his team prepared and ready to go there is no doubt in my mind.  Brett Bielama has not proven to me that he can claim the same thing which is funny considering he comes from the Bill Snyder coaching tree.  Every time Kansas State had extra time to prepare for a game they came out with one of their best performances.  Their road game at Oklahoma State losing 34-36, and their home game against Baylor 24-31 were both very impressive. 

Kansas State will score some points in this game.  There is no better team at getting the ball in hands of players and creating 1 on 1 tackles.  They are #1 in solo tackles forced, and have led that category for 3 straight years.  90% of opponent tackles are solo, and that will create an opportunity against an Arkansas defense that's not very good at tackling.  Arkansas defense relies heavily on multiple players to make a tackle.  They are fully capable of doing that, but I just think Kansas State will stick around in this game.

Penn State +6.5 2.2* play

Both of these offenses have struggled throughout the season which is evident of this very low total here of 42.5.  Points will be at a premium, and I'll take the under dog here with less turmoil.  The Georgia Bulldogs have lost all of their coaches, they have had a ton of injuries, and I don't see them getting too excited to play in this bowl game.  Penn State fired their OC which can only help the offense that was not very creative.  Penn State has the better QB, arguably the better running back in Barkley and an elite pass rusher in Nassib.  Point is the SEC has dominated the bowl season, but the Big 10 hasn't done that bad itself at 5-4 SU & ATS.  Penn State has talent on both sides of the football and we have seen the Big 10 teams without talent gaps play well (Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin).

Iowa +6.5 4.4* play Iowa +200 1*

Stanford is not as good as they have been in years passed especially on the defensive side of the ball.  In fact the entire PAC 12 was very poor on the defensive side of the ball.  Many will point at the offenses being great and there are some good ones, but when we see what these teams have done out of conference I’m not at all impressed.  Take Washington State for instance, an explosive offense only puts up 20 against a Miami defense that’s just awful, and they were shut out in the second half with a Miami team that was missing their head coach.  In fact the PAC 12 is 5-1 in bowl games and even more reason for the public to hit the window and bet Stanford here, but only 2 of those games were against power 5 conference.  The Miami game that Washington State did not play well in and then against the Big 10 Nebaska who were also 6.5 point under dogs and pulled the upset over UCLA on the west coast.  Going over the conference vs. the Power 5 in the regular season and they went 4-4.  Their wins were not impressive maybe Cal’s win at Texas by 1 impresses you, but I remember Texas missing an extra point.  Maybe Utah’s win over Michigan impresses you, but that opened up the season and Michigan threw 3 interceptions.  The other wins were over Virginia and Rutgers.  The losses were against Michigan, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Northwestern.  My perception is the PAC 12 is not better than the Big 10, SEC, or the Big 12.

For Iowa they aren’t going to get a lot of credit here for going 12-0 against a “weak schedule,” but this team nearly upset Michigan State in the Big 10 and certainly out played them.  I think if they didn’t get banged up with Conzeri missing time they would have won, because the defense really was gassed late in this game.  Iowa should be able to move the ball in this game behind their elite offensive line that has sent more lineman to the NFL in the first round since 2004 than any other college football team.  Yes even more than Stanford.  Stanford’s defense was very bad this year ranking 80th vs. the run allowing 1.5 yards per carry more than last year.  They ranked 12th, 10th, and 2nd in yards per play the last 3 years and this year they ranked 66th.  It was a young group, but they never really got any better.  Iowa is actually the best defense Stanford has played since Northwestern where they scored 6 points.  Everyone thinks that was a fluke, but I’m not so sure and Iowa’s Desmond King can be the difference with 8 interceptions on the year.

Last thought on this game, I will be taking Iowa on the money line.  They will have a lot of fans going to this game even driving across the country for 25 hours.  They are also ecstatic to be here for the first time since the 80’s.  Some Iowa fans said they prefer the Rose Bowl over the college football playoff.  It just goes to show you what it means to this Iowa team and fan base.  Where you have Stanford who has been here before and probably a bit upset they didn’t get into the playoff.  Last tip.. I will be waiting to play Iowa likely considering much of the public is on Stanford, and a lot of sharps are too.

****TEASER BONUS PLAY ***

Tennessee -2 4.4* Teaser w/ Ole Miss

I like the value we get here since this line has dropped.  Typically I am big on the Big 10, and I was on Northwestern many times this year with a lot of success (Stanford comes to mind), but I just don’t think they have enough talent in this one to get it done in Florida.  Tennessee is probably the best 8-4 team in the country, and easily could have gone undefeated.  They had both Oklahoma and Alabama on the ropes late in the 4th quarter before losing close games.  They absolutely collapsed at Florida and couldn’t rebound at home vs. a very good Arkansas team.  This team should be plenty motivated to be playing the 13th ranked team in the country in the Outback Bowl, and dominated a Big 10 team last year went up against Iowa.

Northwestern is pretty easy to figure out.  They don’t beat themselves.  They play great defense, and they run the ball, but this is a one dimensional team.  When they are unable to run the ball they have issues and its one guy Tennessee will have to stop in Justin Jackson.  Northwestern has 4.36 ypc in their wins and 1.75 in their losses.  Tennessee has been very good against the run in some games holding Alabama to a season low – 42 carries for 117 yards, that was 2.79 yards per carry.

On offense Tennessee has one of the most versatile and explosive running games and probably the best rushing attack that Northwestern has faced with Dobbs at QB, and Hurd and Kamara.  This team ran against everyone and had 8 games with 200+ yards.  They also had the highest average and 2nd most yards against Alabama’s defense.  This offense faced 5 teams ranked in the top 25 in run defense.  I expect them to win this game with their running game in the 4th quarter, but Dobbs is a very good QB throwing just 5 interceptions.  He has healthier WR, and Northwestern lost Nick Van Hoose in practice which should make things more difficult for them.  Tennessee also holds a significant edge in special teams ranking #2 in the country with arguably the most explosive units in all of football.  These are many of the reasons why I can’t see the Vols losing this game, but it’s hard to bet 8 points of chalk  It tells you a lot about this team the fact that they are ranked 23rd and Vegas respects them enough to open them as an 11.5 point favorite.

Ole Miss -1 Teaser

This is a bit of a mismatch even without Ole Miss best defensive player Rober Nkemdiche.  Ole Miss defense is fast and very good, and they complement it very well with their balanced offense.  Oklahoma State has allowed 200+ yards rushing in each of their last 3 games.  Since Ole Miss got their best offensive lineman back in Laremy Tunsil they have been able to run the ball well with 4+ yards per carry in each of his games back and really made a significant difference to an offense that already was pretty dynamic passing the ball with Chad Kelly throwing to a deep and athletic receiving corp led by Laquan Tredwell who did not get to play in the bowl game a year ago.

Speaking of the bowl game from last year Ole Miss lost 3-41 against TCU, a team that was out to make a statement.  Ole Miss has mentioned that bowl game as motivation multiple times with the media and how it has motivated their 16 returning starters.  Oklahoma State was a nice story, but when they had to step up in competition they really struggled.  This is a one dimensional offense that really struggled against Baylor and Oklahoma down the stretch, and Ole Miss defense is a bit more talented than both of those teams.

Florida +4.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

This game is all about perception and the wrong team is favored here.  Florida is playing in their home state in Orlando, and to me has all the advantages in a match up between two teams that mirror each other in a lot of ways.  Both teams have excellent 1st year head coaches.  Both teams have run first mentalities backed by superior defenses.  On paper it appears Florida has the better defense and Michigan the better offense.  Florida really struggled down the stretch and were ripped apart by the media, but they got healthier for the SEC Championship and hung with Alabama, while Michigan wasn’t even close against Ohio State exposing a lot of weaknesses in the Michigan defense.

On paper both of these teams need to run the ball, and I think Florida will have a better opportunity here considering they have a mobile QB that can run the option in Treon Harris.  This is a big step up in competition for Jake Rudock.  In wins this year Michigan has averaged 4.57 yards per carry and in loses 2.24.  Same goes for Florida with 3.74 and 2.15 in losses.  The same goes on the defensive side of the ball for both teams.  Michigan in wins held opponents to 3.21 ypc and 4.47 in their losses while Florida came in 2.91 ypc allowed in wins, and 4.64 in their losses which I have to mention were against the 3 best running backs in football in Delvin Cook, Leonard Fournette (both should have been Heisman candidates), and the Heisman winner Derrick Henry.  Michigan does not have a guy like this and truly lacks any kind of explosive players.  So much so that they had to bring defensive players on this side of the ball in Jabrill Peppers.

Strength of schedule factors in here for both sides of the ball because Michigan is some what of a fake strong defense having faced just two teams ranked in the top 50 in yards per play and they gave up 41 and 42 to them while Florida faced 6 top 50 offenses and allowed 19.5 ppg.  Florida truly has the most complete defense here.  Their pass defense is clearly better with Vernon Hargreaves back there, and the 4th ranked sack % unit, but the run defense is what I’m impressed with as they faced 8 top 50 units and still finished as one of the best in the nation where Michigan’s defense faced just 3 in the top 50.

Okay, so Michigan’s offense looks better on paper, and especially their running game, but have a look here as Florida faced 9 top 50 run defenses and averaged 22ppg against those.  While Michigan faced only 7 and averaged 21 ppg against those.  Florida had the better game against a similar strength of opponent in their last game as Florida gave Alabama a fight, but Michigan was dominated by their rival Ohio State.  I also don’t trust the team that’s more rusty here and although I have a ton of respect for Jim Harbough this team is not ready to be a 4.5 point favorite against a defense like Florida. 

[b]Michigan State +10 3.3* play[/b]

This one was an obvious for me with so much line value.  There is no doubt in my mind that Michigan State sports the better team, and the more gifted athletes.  I mean they have 18 5* recruits to Michigan State's 1.  However, I do think Michigan State has enjoyed this role, and these spots.  They are 12-1 their last 13 as an under dog under D'antonio and that has to say something about coaching!  For me though the SEC is down and getting too much praise right now.  They went 2-2 in bowl games last year vs. the Big 10, and Alabama does not have the edge at QB in this match up.  The fact of the matter is the SEC does not have many gifted QB's, and Alabama struggled vs. Joel Stave who completed 66.7% of his passes 2 TD's and 1 INT for 228 yards in the beginning of the season.  I know that was a long time ago, but I think Michigan State can move the ball a bit here with Cook at QB.

Alabama's offense is very predictable, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out passing which could be a mistake against this type of defense, and I don't like Coker here to get the job done to cover this spread.  What impressed me the most is Michigan State played 3 very good running teams.  They played Iowa ranked 36th in yards, 42nd in yards per carry, and held them to 2.17 ypc and 52 yards well below what any other team did.  Michigan State faced Ohio State without Cook mind you and held that running game that ranked 10th in yards, and 8th in yards per carry (with a dual threat QB), and they held them to 2.97 ypc and 86 total yards, again well below what any other team was able to accomplish.  Michigan State also played Oregon, a dynamic rushing attack ranked 5th in yards and yards per carry and again this team held them to 2.86 yards per carry and 123 yards well below what any other team was able to achieve.  I think when you look at the fact that Auburn's defense held this Alabama offense in check most of the game you are starring right at value.  I'm not so sure who is the better coach with extra time to prepare.

Clemson +4 5.5* NCAAF POD

When is the last time you saw a #1 team getting 4 points like this on a neutral field.  Oklahoma got a lot of credit down the stretch, and a lot of people are saying Clemson has not played anyone and again are getting zero respect which plays right into the hands of Dabo Sweeney's motivation tactics.  What else does this team have to do?  They beat Oklahoma in last year's bowl game with Deshaun Watson, beat Ohio State the year before and LSU the year before.  Oklahoma has come up small in big games for quite a while going 2-5 in their last 7 BCS bowl games and 0-3 in national championships.  It's also worth noting that Oklahoma faced the tough part of their schedule with a lot of luck.  What I mean by that is they did not have to go up against the starting QB of any of the final 4 teams in Iowa State (almost lost), Baylor, TCU (almost lost), and Oklahoma State.  This is also the team that got extremely lucky early in the season to beat Tennessee.  I'm just not buying them as a 4 point favorite here and let's look at some more facts.

Clemson is by far the best defense that Oklahoma has faced, they also have the best QB they have faced all year.  When you consider Oklahoma struggled when they did face mobile QB's.  They were lucky and missed a few good ones, but they faced Texas Heard who rushed for 115 rushing yards when the two faced off.  Watson is far superior as poses a passing threat with a canon of an arm.  Watson only got better as the season went along.  The issue Oklahoma is going to have in this game and probably the reason I like them the most is Clemson's front 7 havoc rate.  Clemson is 3rd in sack% and Oklahoma is 104th in sacked %.   Baker Mayfield is used to running for his life but not against this caliber of a secondary that held opponents to 46.1 completion percentage and picked off opponents 14 times.  Clemson had a net of 49 tackles for loss while Oklahoma came in at +5, but allowed 80 tackles for loss.  A huge reason why they only converted 44% of their third downs.  Clemson has held opponents to 24.87% conversions on third downs.

If you were initially liking Oklahoma and you still are not sold, because of the suspensions announced today.  Deon Cain was not a huge part of this offense.  He had 11% of the receptions and another player will step up.  What makes Watson so good is he is able to spread the ball around which makes this Oklahoma's most difficult assignment.  I think Oklahoma also the more rustier team having not played in a championship game and I think that may be the reason they struggle in these late bowl games.  Clemson also had some turnover issues -2 on the season while Oklahoma is at +10, but what really impressed me is they were positive in their three biggest games.  When Clemson played Notre Dame they were +3, Florida State +2, and North Carolina +1.  Turnovers were not an issue when Clemson knew they had to be at their best.  I'll back Clemson here and I hope I have given you plenty of confidence to do so as well!

Wisconsin +3.5 3.3* play 

There are a few reasons why I like the Badgers in this game.  For one they are catching a bunch of grief for having a weak schedule, but their loses are against Alabama, Iowa and Northwestern.  They arguably could have won 2 of those 3 as they were –TO margin in all 3 games, the only 3 games they were negative in the TO margin all season long.  USC’s defense is well below average with above average tendencies.  I believe the extra time and the fact Wisconsin gets Corey Clement back for this game will give them all they need to win this game or at least stay within the 3 points.  I also think Joel Stave could have a great game against USC who is ranked 96th in passing yards allowed.

When you look at this match up I have to compare what the PAC 12 did this season vs. the Big 10.  Big 10 seems like the better conference with a small sample size, but it all started with Ohio State dominating Oregon in the national championship game last year.  This year Northwestern started the year beating up on Stanford, the PAC 12’s best team.  Washington State barely got by Rutgers by 3.  Michigan dominated Oregon State, Michigan State beat Oregon, and Michigan lost against Utah on the road by 7 because of 3 interceptions.  So far this bowl season though Nebraska went out west and defeated UCLA.  Making it 4-2 against the PAC 12 which is very impressive.

Of course that’s not the only reason I’m picking Wisconsin here.  USC has not played a defense even close to this good, and they don’t really have the explosive type of offense that’s going to give Wisconsin issues in my opinion.  Wisconsin was a balanced defense good against the pass and the run, and although USC’s offense was very efficient they played against PAC12 defenses which were not very good this year even Stanford was 67th in yards per play allowed.

NC State +6.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

NC State has to be playing this bowl game with a chip on their shoulder.  This is a very well coached team under Dave Doeren.  Ironically they face off an SEC team they have a lot in common with.  Both are nearly identical in pace, and yards per play on offense and defense.  They both played identical games against their common opponent Troy and had very easy non-conference schedules.  They both feature a senior QB with experience that does not turn the ball over.  I did not want to make the assumption a lot of people do with the SEC over an ACC or other conference so I went back to look at recent history.

Recent history suggests the value is considerably on NC State’s side when you consider these two teams are on the same level in their respective conferences, lost to teams they were supposed to and beat the teams they were supposed to.  THE SEC is actually 7-9 since losing the national championship to the ACC in 2014 against the ACC.  This year they went just 4-3, and what is shocking is how well the ACC played against some of the top tier teams.  For instance Syracuse covered a large spread with ease over LSU, Kentucky lost by 14 to Louisville (both on the same level), Florida got blown out by Florida State (again on the same level), South Carolina nearly upset Clemson, but other than that the ACC played much better than the SEC for the second year in a row.

I don’t think much separates these two teams and it should be the little things that matter.  I’ve never been a big fan of Nick Mullen he’s 3-2 in bowl games, but has lost the last two against power 5 conferences.  He lost to the ACC’s Georgia Tech by 14 as a 6 point favorite last year, and lost by 14 as a +1.5 point dog in 2013 to Northwestern.  These teams are fairly similar in all statistical categories the major differences are Miss State’s not as balanced they throw the ball more than nearly everyone in the country while NC State is more balanced.  I think it’s important to note the strength of NC State’s front line as they rank 18th in sack %, while Miss State ranks 82nd, and 72nd in protection.  So that’s another key here, but turnover margin will likely decide this game and Miss State was -5, while NC State was +10 as they only had 11 turnovers on the season.  Miss State really struggled with the running game, and with that they fumbled a lot.  I trust Dave Doeren will have his team motivated and ready to play in their home state as he improves to 3-0 in bowl games.

Memphis/Auburn Over 62 (2.2* play)

I think this is a relatively low total considering this is going to be the most balanced offense Auburn has faced all year and will do so without their defensive coordinator.  Memphis, has the best QB Auburn has faced all year as there are a lot of slow paced run first oriented offenses in the SEC.  Memphis has Paxton Lynch who put up 37 points against a much more dominating defense in Ole Miss.  Memphis also likes to go quick, and we have seen Auburn struggle with those type of offenses even giving up 35 points to Idaho who rank 18th in pace (Memphis 13th).  I initially leaned towards Memphis in this game, but I just can’t jump on board with the significant coaching change, and interim head coach Darnell Dickey is 1-3 in his career in bowl games.  What I can get on board with is the over.

I think Memphis is going to score, and I think Auburn’s offense will be able to move the ball quite well in this game.  Memphis defense gave up 45 points to Navy, and Auburn has an unusual running game that could give Memphis some issues.  When you look at Auburn under Gus Malzahn the offense has typically over produced when they are given extra time to be creative.  I really liked what I saw from this offense down the stretch, and I think they can beat Memphis with the run and the pass game.  The last two bowl games Auburn scored on average 15 points more than their opponent gave up in the regular season.  Memphis gave up 27 this year per game, and I could see Auburn getting into the 30’s in this contest. 

LSU/Texas Tech U74 3.3* play

I’ll take the under in this game as this total is ridiculously high.  Texas Tech is not going to score close to their season average of 46.4 points.  The last 6 bowl games for LSU they have held their opponents well under their season average.  This is an LSU secondary that has improved as the season has gone along.  It took a bit of time with Kevin Steele’s new defense, but I like where this team finished, and they ranked top 30 in nearly every pass defense category.  Tech’s offense was not nearly explosive against the top teams on their schedule in West Virginia, Baylor, and Oklahoma the top 3 defenses in the Big 12 they averaged just 29.33 ppg.  All 3 of those teams like to play with tempo (top 15 in plays per game) while LSU is one of the slower teams in the nation ranking 125th in pace.

LSU will absolutely dictate the pace in this game with their running game.  Texas Tech is one of the worst run defenses in the nation although I think they will be better prepared for the bowl game to stop the run, and it will help playing a one dimensional offense.  At the end of the day I don’t see how this total goes over given these facts.  I don’t have a strong feeling on the line as the SEC has gone 0-2 vs. the Big 12 this year and Texas Tech has already beaten an SEC team that LSU has lost to.  Many feel the SEC is down this year, I disagree I think there was just more parity, but I will wait and see before I back them and I certainly don’t want to lay 8 points the first time I do.  I do have a lot of confidence in the coaching in this conference, and Les Miles has proven his teams come to play defense in bowl games.  The last 5 opponents have averaged 10.15 ppg under their season average.

Baylor +3.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

This has extreme value in my book for many reasons.  Baylor’s experienced defense will be the difference in this game in my opinion.  Especially since they will be without their top running back, and receiver, but do get their third string QB back in Chris Johnson.  I really don’t feel like Johnson got a real opportunity to showcase his talent, and I think that is a huge reason we are getting value here.  Johnson is an athletic freak that I think will really hurt this North Carolina defense that gave up over 600 yards to Clemson.  Baylor is also a run first team and has been the last few years so I don’t think these injuries impact them as much as the line movement suggests.

All the public really remembers is this team struggling down the stretch, but they won many games with this defense and are ranked 30th in yards per play.  North Carolina’s offense has only faced 2 top 40 unit in yards per play defense, and just 1 team in top 40 yards per play offense, but in this bowl game they will face a team that is top 30 in both.  Gene Chizik is getting all kinds of credit for improving a defense that gave up 16.4 points per game more in 2014, but the fact of the matter is strength of schedule.  In 2014, North Carolina played a whopping total of 8 teams in the top 50 in offense, and this year they played just 2 with a lot of bad offenses along the way.

The last thing I will mention is the fact that these two conferences are pretty even.  The Big 12 is 12-11 vs. the ACC in bowl games with an average differential of 0.3 ppg.  I believe the ACC defenses have made this UNC offense look better than they really are.  The ACC is 1-3 ATS in bowl games in 2015, and featured 3 of the better defenses in the conference in Duke, Pitt, and Virginia Tech and all 3 gave up a ton of points 41, 44, and 52.  North Carolina had huge issues at the end of the year stopping the run allowing 300+ yards in their last 2 games and I think that’s the strategy Baylor takes in this game as the defense also steps up.  This is an experienced unit that returned 9 of 11 starters.

Air Force +7 2.2* play

This is an interesting match up of contrasting styles with Airforce top 5 in running play %, and Cal top 5 in passing play %.  The Mountain West has done great this bowl game going 5-1 ATS, but so has the PAC 12 at 4-1 ATS.  Actually the Mountain West is 10-9 head to head with the PAC 12 in bowl games, but went 2-10 this season.  However, I still think this match up is in favor of Air Force.  The last time we had a similar match up with Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green, in styles of play and I went with the running team and I’m doing the same here.

I have much more confidence in Air Force’s having success running the ball and controlling this game than I do in California lighting up the scoreboard and making stops.  Air Force has ran for more than 200 yards in every single game this season except Army, who defends the triple option very well (ask Keenan Reynolds).  California has given up 185+ yards rushing 7 times and is 3-4 in those games.  They have had major issues against QB’s that can run, and I just don’t see how they can keep Air Force out of the end zone.

With all of that said Jared Goff is probably heading to the NFL, Sony Dykes interviewed for a few different jobs so I don’t really even know that Cal is truly focused for this game.  Air Force’s defense is good enough to get stops and will be aggressive and take chances.  This is a team that was competitive against Michigan State on the road.  They outgained Michigan State by over 100 yards in that game, but had 3 turnovers.  I see Air Force rushing for over 300 yards in this game and if they can avoid the turnovers they should get a win.

Minnesota -6 -102 3.5* play

I like the Gophers in this spot against the MAC.  Since 2010 the Big Ten has gone 60-13 vs. the MAC including 10-2 this year with an average margin of victory of 18.  There a few reasons to like Minnesota in this spot who is getting into a bowl game at 5-7 for Academic reasons.  We backed the last 5-7 bowl team and came up with a big win on Nebraska.  I think this Minnesota team had a very difficult schedule and a lot of their stats suffered.  Despite all of that this is a team that nearly knocked of Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa.  Central Michigan had a tough schedule as well, but Minnesota also played TCU in non-conference play and had a ton of injuries and lost their head coach midway through the season.

Speaking of injuries Minnesota was devastated with them along the offensive line, defensive line and secondary, but ST's STeven Richardson and Scott Ekpe have been practicing, and several other key players are back in the mix.  I also don't like this match up for the Chippewas who rely so heavily on the passing game behind the arm of Cooper Rush.  Rush had a fabulous year with 25 TD's to 10 interceptions with 3703 passing yards, but this is the best pass defense he will face all season.  Minnesota ranks 14th in yards allowed and have a lock down CB in Eric Murray who should be able to take away half the field.  I'd be surprised if the Chippewas score more than 21 points in this game, and I think they will need to.

Minnesota can run the ball when they face a team that gives up the run. Central Michigan 1-5 when allowing over 4 yards per carry.  Minnesota should be able to do that with a mobile QB, and I love the fact that this Gophers team is more balanced because they faced so many top run defensive teams this year.  They went 5-1 against teams ranked outside of the top 50 in run defense losing to only TCU who is ranked 53rd.

Pittsburgh +3 3.3* play 

I'm going to take the Panthers here despite it being a road game as Navy will get to play in their home stadium.  Pitt will still have plenty fans on hand maybe 1/3 of the stadium will be Pitt fans, but the bigger reason I'm going with Pitt is they are excited to be here playing against a ranked opponent in Navy.  Both teams will run the ball first, and play defense, and I like Pitt's ability to make key stops in the red zone and on third downs where they have enjoyed much more success than Navy against a more challenging schedule.  Pitt has held opponents to 36.8% conversions on third downs, 50% in the red zone for a TD% compared to Navy 46.67%, and 63%.  The overall size of Pitt's fronts will eventually be the advantage late in this game.  

The American Athletic Conference is now 0-4 in bowl games and not looking at tough as we thought. Pittsburgh has plenty of time to prepare for the triple option, and I love that this team gave up 376 yards in a winning effort against Georgia Tech on normal rest.  This keeps these defensive players motivated with film to study before facing Navy's threat which does not have good of athletes.  If you watched Navy/Army you could clearly see that.  Many of the Pitt players remember a loss in 2013 to Navy and have revenge on their mind including Pitt's most explosive offensive weapon in Tyler Boyd.  The extra prep will also allow Pitt to find new creative ways to get their best players the ball in space, and I think this game will be close throughout, but the advantages that Pitt has in some of the key stats will be the difference.  Pitt also ranked 19th in special teams efficiency while Navy is 69th.

Nebraska +6.5 5.5* NCAAF POD

I’m not sure UCLA can get up for playing a team that’s 5-7.  Nebraska however, had 5 losses by 5 points or fewer.  Nebraska definitely has a lot of motivation in this game when you consider they are 1 of 3 teams with 5 wins. They also lost to UCLA the last two years, and this is a very different Nebraska team compared to the team UCLA played the last few years.  Nebraska will chuck the ball around the field, and they can stop the run.  Nebraska is 8th in the nation in stopping the run, and that’s an important factor in this game as UCLA will rely heavily on their running game.  They average over 200 yards per game in their 8 wins, but under 150 in their losses.  Nebraska has not allowed a single opponent over 200 yards rushing this season and just 3 over 150.  I’m expecting that stat to be a big reason why this is a close game and with nearly a TD to play with the value is on Nebraska.

I mentioned motivation for Nebraska who has several players quoting how great of an opportunity this game is.  Offensive lineman Ryne Reeves said, “I think it’s a great opportunity for us to show that we’re a better team than what our record says.”  I also love the fact that they lost twice to UCLA in recent memory and that their head coach Mike Riley beat Jim Mora when he was at Oregon State.

The biggest key in this game though is Tommy Armstrong.  Nebraska will lose if we get the very bad Tommy, but they can still cover this spread with him throwing a couple of picks, but I think what he will bring to the table is his mobility in this game.  Armstrong averages over 5 yards per carry when he is not sacked and the UCLA defense has had plenty of issues with the few mobile QB’s they have faced this year.  Jim Mora’s teams have had so many issues against athletic QB’s since he’s been here and Armstrong is arguably the best one he will face this year.  I think Armstrong will be the difference in this game, this team is better in the red zone because of him converting TD’s at a 71% clip compared to UCLA’s average 61%, they defend on third downs and in the red zone.  Nebraska’s biggest weakness is their pass defense, but they are more of a bend but don’t break unit, and against Josh Rosen I think they can force him into mistakes.  Nebraska is far better in special teams ranked 28th in efficiency to UCLA’s 71st, and their defense can create more negative plays.  I think the Pac 12 is down a bit this year, and there is not much that separates them from the Big 10 when you look at head to heads this year I would say the Big 10 is the better conference.  Pac 12 went 2-3 this season vs. the Big 10, and were embarrassed in the national championship game last year as Oregon lost to Ohio State.  Their only wins were questionable with Washington State barely getting by Rutgers 37-34, and Michigan losing at Utah to open the season because of a ton of turnovers.  Otherwise Northwestern beat Stanford by 10 the PAC 12’s best team, and Michigan State handled Oregon while Michigan also handled Oregon State.

Duke +132 4* PLAY

When we look at Duke coming out of the ACC against Indiana coming out of the Big 10 it is important to look at each perspective conference, and when looking at these two they are pretty evenly matched.  Big Ten has actually gone 11-15 vs. the ACC in bowl games, but the scoring differential is 0.3 points per game.  The Big 10 went 4-3 vs. the ACC this year, but have a -3.9 ppg differential.  For me I think these two teams are evenly matched with a slight edge to Duke, and I give their experience of being to their now 4th straight bowl game a huge advantage when you look at motivation.

Duke lost their 3 bowl games under Cutliffe, and this is a huge game, that they are actually able to win.  They were even bigger dogs in the last 3 and really could have won all 3 games, but they didn't.  Cutliffe has a special senior class and even states so.  Duke's center Matt Skura says, "everyone's locked in," despite losing their OC Montgomery who is going to be coaching in this game, but will leave to be the HC of East Carolina.  I trust Montgomery wants this game just as much after losing the last 3.

Duke's defense is far better than Indiana's, but they lose their best player in Cash at safety.  That's a huge loss, but everything starts in the front 7 for this team that's ranked 38th vs. the run.  Indiana will runt eh ball 56.5% of the time rely on Jordan Howard at RB, who is questionable.  Duke has only allowed 200 yards rushing twice this year, but each team had to run the ball 50+ times to get there.  Indiana is 1-4 when they don't run the ball 200+ yards.  Duke can get the early lead here in my opinion and Indiana will have to score a lot to win this game.

Duke's offense is not that bad and since 2011 they have gone 7-4 with extra preparation scoring 30+ points in each of those games with 1 exception of a 24 points.  They will face an Indiana defense ranked 103rd in yards per play and 121st in total defense.  This is the worst defense that Duke has faced.  Against teams ranked 88th or worse Duke has averaged 35.2 ppg so I think they will hang 40 up here today.  The total play is not an option for me however since it moved 8.5 points to 72.5.  

For Indiana under Kevin Wilson, an offensive guy and with extra time to prepare it doesn't look so good.  He's 1-5 vs. FBS teams with extra rest, and this is their first bowl appearance.  I just think the experience and coaching edge is on Duke's side along with the motivation, and the fact we are getting them at a decent size dog is pretty spectacular.  Indiana put up a lot of points in their last 2 games against teams that really did not care and now they have to face one of the better defenses they have faced all year, a team that is less penalized, and has the 4th best special teams from an efficiency perspective.  This game should be fun, but I think it's the experience that gets Duke the win in the end.