Duke +8.5 Teaser

A lot of people are picking Duke here to pull the upset which makes me a bit nervous, but I do feel like we have great value with the teaser.  Duke, of course very familiar with the option, and has done great against it going 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. an option team which includes 4-0 ATS run vs. Georgia Tech covering those games by an average of 16 points per game.  Duke also gets the extra week to prepare. GEorgia Tech who has the #4 ranked offensive attack and runs the ball 83% of the time will keep this clock ticking. They have gotten there facing the average #88 rushing defense, but here they face Duke off a bye who ranks #14.

Meanwhile Georgia Tech off two blow out victories and feeling great about themselves, but this is a game they know they need to win.  Duke has faced the tougher schedule, and they have the QB Daniel Jones to make all the plays. Jones broke his clavicle which led to losses for Duke and the extra time off definitely helps him heal and be 100%.  Duke will line up and face the #93 ranked defense, which is accurate with a #94 adjusted defense ranking. They are #79 vs. the run, and #71 s. The pass, and #107 at getting to the QB Despite facing teams that don’t protect their QB.  Jones will have a clean pocket and when he does he’s smart and they won’t turn the ball over to give Georgia Tech to win this by double digits.

This total has dropped 5 points, these teams are familiar with each other and both want to run the ball first.  Expect a tight lower scoring game and that means the extra 6 points are just far more valuable here.

Georgia -1

LSU is a popular dog this week that I am fading.  LSU has impressive wins on their resume with Auburna on the road and Miami to open the season, but those wins are becoming less and less impressive.  Their defense which ranks #39 has yet to see a balanced offense all year. The offenses they did face could either run it or pass it but not both. Here comes Georgia who can do both and do it efficiently.  Georgia players already calling this game the start of their season, and LSU proved last week when they gave up 215 yards rushing to Florida that they can be run on.

Jake Fromm is probably the most underrated player in the nation in my opinion.  He is a poised QB that as a freshman led his team to the National Championship. This year he is fighting off a “better prospect” in Justin Fields and just playing great.  Death Valley at 3:30 kickoff won’t phase him at all and he’ll lead this team to a victory. My #’s have this game at 13.3 point favorite for Georgia. I like the teaser value we are getting more here.

LSU has been a popular pick and many are pointing to Georgia’s schedule and their lack of defensive pressure. Georgia ranking #117 in sack %, but they have faced an opponenet sack % allowed ranking on average #39.8.  LSU is not getting to the QB either ranking #94 ins ack % and they have faced teams that just don’t protect the QB Ranking #74.6 in protection, but LSU still has not been able to create pressure.

The only way LSU wins this game is if they force turnovers and I just don’t see how that is possible with Fromm out there.  Georgia is 10th in the nation in TO margin, and it is far more likely that LSU’s QB Burrow turns the ball over. LSU in 3 conference games have 5 TO’s while Georgia is +4 TO margin in their 4 conference games.  Georgia also +17.5% TD percentage in the red zone on the season compared to LSU who is struggling at -6.5%. Fade the popular dog LSU as they step up in competition.

Florida -7 2.2% play

My math models have this game around -10.  Normally I would want to fade FLorida in this situation, but they are a different team this year.  They rely on the run and they are good at it ranking #25 in the country despite facing an adjusted opponent defense ranking #1.  Vanderbilt comes into this game ranking #84 defending the run, and that’s against an opponent average rushing attack ranking #53.  The strength of this Vanderbilt offense is the QB play, but they are facing #10 ranked QB defense. Florida also able to get after the QB ranking #9 in the country.

All that travels and Florida is ranked #4 in TO margin while Vanderbilt ranks #42.  Vanderbilt should have beaten Notre Dame on the road when Notre Dame still had Whimbush at QB and we backed Vanderbilt in that game, but since that game Vanderbilt has lost 2 games vs. SEC foes by 23 points, and 28 points.  Florida fits in that category and there is no hangover here as they want to go into their bye week excited for what they have coming out of the bye facing Georgia in 2 weeks.

Utah -13.5 3.3% Play

Both teams off misleading victories last week, but Utah has had many misleading losses this year and could very easily be undefeated.  Their misleading victory over Stanford was at least a dominating 40-21 on the road.  Arizona got +4 TO's against Cal including two pick 6's, but only won 24-17 at home.  Now Arizona most go on the road to on a short week to play Utah who has got some confidence, and their head coach Kevin Sumlin is complaining about the short week which just gives your players excuses early in this game if things don't start well. 

Utah got great play by their QB last week Tyler Huntley and he was finding multiple receivers which is a great sign for this offense.  I'm not surprised as I was high on Utah coming into this season.  Huntley has had a challenging scheduling going up an average opponent sack rate of #43, and average opponent QB rating of 42, and an average opponent rushing ypc of 40.25.  Here, Arizona ranks #65 vs. the pass vs. waek competition, and #99 in sack %, and their run defense is #91 vs. the run.  This should help create balance for a Utah offense that has struggled at times this year.  I don't see how they don't put up 31 points with RB Zack Moss probably having the ability to rush for 100+ yards again.

Arizona's offense with QB Tate was highly touted coming into the year, but the coaching change and Tate being forced to throw more along with his health has held this offense back.  Offensively they really don't do anything well.  They rank 47th in ypc, but that has been against an opponent defense ranking #74.4, here they face Utah #6 at home.  They rank #93 in QB rating and that has been against an average QB defense of #70, here Utah ranks #34, and Utah's secondary has been tested a bit for sure.  The weather is going to be cold at 46 degrees for those Arizona boys so when Utah gets up I don't think there is any back door open for them to cover this spread. 

Wyoming +145 3% Play

Wyoming really needs a win right now and they are getting disrespected here.  Wyoming has faced WAshington State, Missouri, and Boise State for their 3 losses.  Hawaii has not faced an opponent close to those 3 and I think Wyoming's offense could get a wake up call here against a Hawaii team that just played 5 OT's has to travel back, and is playing their 7th game in 7 weeks.  It's an awful spot for a Hawaii team that is 5-1, but really haven't beaten anyone.  Let's look at the defenses they have faced from a yards per play perspective - 129, 110, 128, 115, FCS, and #63 in San Jose State who really held Hawaii in check for most of the game.

Wyoming is the best defense that Hawaii has faced so far ranking #56, but they are actually better than that ranking in my opinion when you factor in they have already faced 3 TOP 50 offenses.  Wyoming also had a bye the week before Boise and played Wofford the week before so they are well rested here. 

Virginia Tech +7 3.3% Play

I see a couple of 7.5 with extra juice out there so you may be able to wait this one out if you want.  Plenty of people wanting to back Notre Dame.

So many story lines here for the Hokies to post up on their bulletin board. Notre Dame switched their QB to Ian Book and all of a sudden they are going to be playing Alabama in the National Championship.  Virginia Tech players keep being reminded that they lost to Old Dominion, but it seems like they got over that last week, and they cut some players that were creating some turmoil in the locker room if you ask me and have made room for the younger more talented guys.  QB Ryan Willis looked better running this offense than Joshua Jackson, and I know he’s a “Kansas” QB transfer and that’s another thing that people are talking about, but Willis (no relation), actually set a Kansas freshman record for passing yards in just 8 starts when he was there.  The 4th thing on the bulletin board is Bud Foster’s defense and how it’s just not as good, we will see.

Notre Dame is better with Ian Book I will admit that, but in his 2 starts he went against #56 run defense / #88 pass defense in Stanford, a team in a horrible situation after playing an OT game on the West Coast to Oregon winning, saving their season in dramatic fashion.  Previously he started against Wake Forest who had the 107th ranked run defense, and 96th ranked pass defense. We have seen Book before, and we have seen him make mental mistakes against good defenses. Virginia Tech is +6 turnover margin on the season which could play a factor here considering they have struggled at the tackle position and just lost their pre-season All American LG Alex Bars for the season.  Expect VT’s Ricky Walker to play a key part in forcing a couple of turnovers in their home hostile environment. Enter Sandman.

Miss State +9.5 / Florida +8 4.4% Teaser of the Week (Florida +115 / Miss State +155 ML parly 0.6% @ +448)

Miss State +9.5

With a low total of 42 we are expecting a low scoring game with two struggling offenses, and that makes the 6 points in a teaser more valuable.  We are buying low on Miss State, I actually have this game Auburn -1, but due to their recent struggles here we are at +3.5. This will be Auburn’s first road game and it comes in a hostile environment in a night game, local kickoff at 7:30.  That is not a good situation for Auburn’s offensive line which is not 100%, 2 starters in Driscoll and McBryde are ? on Saturday and this is a unit that’s already completely rebuilt from last year. They rank 87th in protecting their QB, and that’s with 4 home games, and now they’ll face Miss State front 7 that is 10th getting to the QB from an efficiency perspective.

Miss State’s offense is not great either and that’s why we are teasing this one.  I think we are getting nearly 10 points of value in this tease and probably more given the total.  This is an Auburn team that was outgained by Arkansas of all teams. Both these teams are pretty similar in the fact that they run the ball 55% of the time, and their QB’s are under performing.  MIss State averages 5.98 ypc, but have had an easy schedule facing an average rush defense ranking 79th, and they have struggled against the 2 solid defenses in conference play averaging just 2.67 yards per carry, but Auburn has struggled more with just 4.17 ypc and 2.99 ypc in conference play with nothing but home games.

Let’s look at the run defenses, and you see Auburn appears to be better allowing 2.75 yards per carry, but they really haven’t played anyone in the top 50.  An average opponent rank of 79 in rushing yards per carry. While Miss State defense allows 3.29 yards per carry, but have faced off against 3 top 20 rushing offenses from a yards per carry perspective.  So, Auburn’s rushing offense probably not as bad as it has looked, and Miss State’s defense is better than it looks, but I expect MIss State to dominate the line of scrimmage here given their front 7 is strong.  Auburn is going to have to pass to win this game, and they just can’t do it with this offensive line that can’t block very long. It’s ar eason they have just 16 plays for 20+ yards, which is 108th in the country.  Miss State has 32 plays for 20+ yards which is the Joe Moorehead effect and that ranks 18th. Miss State’s defense has also allowed 7 less plays of 20+ yards and that is the reason they are +2.18 yards per play vs. #33 strength of schedule compared to Auburn who is +0.95 vs. the 18th ranked SOS.  At the end of the day these teams are pretty even, and we get the home team in a buy low situation that turns the ball over less. That’s a situation that I just can’t pass up.

Florida +8

Here is another low total, we are getting a home dog with a chance to win in my opinion.  LSU/Florida are very similar teams in my opinion led by very good defenses. I feel like Florida probably has more balance on offense, and they certainly have the better coach in Dan Mullen who is very familiar with Ed O.  In fact he’s 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups. Both coaches are coming off emotional wins facing their old teams. Ed O got fired by Ole Miss, and Dan Mullen left Miss State. Coming into this season Florida the most experienced team in the SEC, and they are getting guys back in their front 7 on defense form suspensions while LSU is the least experienced team in the SEC.

Who can run the ball here?  I’m not sure either team will have much success, but LSU relies heavily on the run at 60% of their play calls compared to Florida at 53.8%.  Florida has averaged 5.3 yards per carry and has faced two top 50 run defenses - 246 yards 0 TD’s vs. those two opponents. Meanwhile, LSU averages 4.44 ypc, and has also faced two top 50 run defenses - 277 yards, 3 TD’s.  This is pretty even here, and I think this game will likely fall on the QB. In order for Joe Burrow to beat Florida by 8 or more points he’s going to have to have a game, and that’s difficult against Florida’s secondary. Burrow does not really take a lot of shots, and while the offensive line has been great protecting him ranking 33rd in the country, Florida’s defensive line is ranked 17th in getting to the QB.

Florida should actually have some time in this game going up against LSU’s defensive line ranking 81st in sack rate.  Florida is also +17 tackles for loss compared to +6. Feleipe Franks has a 12 TD to 3 INT ratio, and Florida is +9 in TO margin.  Both teams are similar in explosive offense and explosive defense so there is no concern there. Florida +1.76 yards per play differential this season against the 73rd strength of schedule compared to LSU who is +1.01 vs. the 70th.  LSU is only favored in this game, because of the AP poll, and Florida line has gotten bet down early in the week by sharps.

Kentucky +6 3.3% play

This line is a major slap in the face to the Wildcats, but they are used to it and I expect it to motivate them.  Texas A&M is very similar to Kentucky when we look at their offense and defense, but I think Kentucky is the more balanced team.  Many will point out to Terry Wilson’s struggles throwing the ball, but he’s faced 4 TOP 42 passing defenses. Compare that with A&M and Kellen Mond who has seen just 1 passing defense in the top 42.

Nobody has played Clemson or Alabama better than A&M, but Kentucky has 3 wins already over SEC opponents, and I think they are the better team here.  Texas A&M has been a rock against the run ranking #29 facing an average offense ranking 31.75 so the rushign defense is legit, but Kentucky has been able to run the ball all year against legit defenses.  This may be the first time Kentucky has the ability to pass early on downs going up against A&M who ranks 114th vs. the pass, Kentucky ranks 3rd.

Kentucky also has a very good run defense ranking #28 and they have also faced 3 top 30 rushing offenses and have won those games.  Offensively Kentucky ranks #8 in rushing yards per carry behind Benny Snell who will motivate his team to victory. Snell has done this vs. a weaker run defense schedule ranking on average 61 compared to A&M’s 59th rank vs. an average opponent ranking 39th vs. the run.  Overall Kentucky seems to have the edge with no red flags. A&M is -5 in turnover margin and missed two field goals and struggled against Arkansas last week. I have this game -3 A&M, and lined pk on a neutral field, and I’ll back a team like Kentucky who seems to have the better defense.

Arizona State +2.5 3.3% play

The wrong team is favored here and Colorado has faced the weakest schedule of maybe any team.  Their opponents are 1-16, and they have yet to play a top 50 pass defense or top 50 run defense, but they are about to face Arizona State who is both.

Arizona State is well coached and may be as balanced as any team in the country.  Manny Wilkins is not turning the ball over at QB and he can run the ball as well. Wilkins ran for 95 yards in this matchup last year as Colorado gave up a season high 381 yards to Arizona STate.   Arizona State 6.25 yards per carry in wins and 3.13 in losses will be the key. I think they can run in this game with Wilkins back there and the RB Eno Benjamin. Colorado has given up more than 5 yards per carry against two worse rushing offenses in Nebraska and UCLA.  Nebraska’s freshmen QB Martinez rushed for 117 yards.

For Arizona State’s defense I feel like they can dominate.  They are running a different defense that Colorado is not used to seeing in the 3-3-5.  They are ranked 10th in the nation in sack %, and Colorado’s offensive line is struggling to pass protect ranking 92nd.  That’s with facing teams who rank 116, 42, and 72 in getting to the QB. I think Arizona State is fully capable of dominating this game and winning by double digits.

Miss State +9.5 / Florida +8 4.4% Teaser of the Week (Florida +115 / Miss State +155 ML parly 0.6% @ +448)

Miss State +9.5

With a low total of 42 we are expecting a low scoring game with two struggling offenses, and that makes the 6 points in a teaser more valuable.  We are buying low on Miss State, I actually have this game Auburn -1, but due to their recent struggles here we are at +3.5. This will be Auburn’s first road game and it comes in a hostile environment in a night game, local kickoff at 7:30.  That is not a good situation for Auburn’s offensive line which is not 100%, 2 starters in Driscoll and McBryde are ? on Saturday and this is a unit that’s already completely rebuilt from last year. They rank 87th in protecting their QB, and that’s with 4 home games, and now they’ll face Miss State front 7 that is 10th getting to the QB from an efficiency perspective.

Miss State’s offense is not great either and that’s why we are teasing this one.  I think we are getting nearly 10 points of value in this tease and probably more given the total.  This is an Auburn team that was outgained by Arkansas of all teams. Both these teams are pretty similar in the fact that they run the ball 55% of the time, and their QB’s are under performing.  MIss State averages 5.98 ypc, but have had an easy schedule facing an average rush defense ranking 79th, and they have struggled against the 2 solid defenses in conference play averaging just 2.67 yards per carry, but Auburn has struggled more with just 4.17 ypc and 2.99 ypc in conference play with nothing but home games.

Let’s look at the run defenses, and you see Auburn appears to be better allowing 2.75 yards per carry, but they really haven’t played anyone in the top 50.  An average opponent rank of 79 in rushing yards per carry. While Miss State defense allows 3.29 yards per carry, but have faced off against 3 top 20 rushing offenses from a yards per carry perspective.  So, Auburn’s rushing offense probably not as bad as it has looked, and Miss State’s defense is better than it looks, but I expect MIss State to dominate the line of scrimmage here given their front 7 is strong.  Auburn is going to have to pass to win this game, and they just can’t do it with this offensive line that can’t block very long. It’s ar eason they have just 16 plays for 20+ yards, which is 108th in the country.  Miss State has 32 plays for 20+ yards which is the Joe Moorehead effect and that ranks 18th. Miss State’s defense has also allowed 7 less plays of 20+ yards and that is the reason they are +2.18 yards per play vs. #33 strength of schedule compared to Auburn who is +0.95 vs. the 18th ranked SOS.  At the end of the day these teams are pretty even, and we get the home team in a buy low situation that turns the ball over less. That’s a situation that I just can’t pass up.

Florida +8

Here is another low total, we are getting a home dog with a chance to win in my opinion.  LSU/Florida are very similar teams in my opinion led by very good defenses. I feel like Florida probably has more balance on offense, and they certainly have the better coach in Dan Mullen who is very familiar with Ed O.  In fact he’s 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups. Both coaches are coming off emotional wins facing their old teams. Ed O got fired by Ole Miss, and Dan Mullen left Miss State. Coming into this season Florida the most experienced team in the SEC, and they are getting guys back in their front 7 on defense form suspensions while LSU is the least experienced team in the SEC.

Who can run the ball here?  I’m not sure either team will have much success, but LSU relies heavily on the run at 60% of their play calls compared to Florida at 53.8%.  Florida has averaged 5.3 yards per carry and has faced two top 50 run defenses - 246 yards 0 TD’s vs. those two opponents. Meanwhile, LSU averages 4.44 ypc, and has also faced two top 50 run defenses - 277 yards, 3 TD’s.  This is pretty even here, and I think this game will likely fall on the QB. In order for Joe Burrow to beat Florida by 8 or more points he’s going to have to have a game, and that’s difficult against Florida’s secondary. Burrow does not really take a lot of shots, and while the offensive line has been great protecting him ranking 33rd in the country, Florida’s defensive line is ranked 17th in getting to the QB.

Florida should actually have some time in this game going up against LSU’s defensive line ranking 81st in sack rate.  Florida is also +17 tackles for loss compared to +6. Feleipe Franks has a 12 TD to 3 INT ratio, and Florida is +9 in TO margin.  Both teams are similar in explosive offense and explosive defense so there is no concern there. Florida +1.76 yards per play differential this season against the 73rd strength of schedule compared to LSU who is +1.01 vs. the 70th.  LSU is only favored in this game, because of the AP poll, and Florida line has gotten bet down early in the week by sharps.

Kent +12 2.2% play

Ohio has struggled in their last two trips to Kent winning by 4 points.  I see them really trying to slow this game down with a bigger game on deck at Northern Illinois.  Ohio is ranked 109th in pace and take the full play clock between plays which should shorten this game quite a bit in my opinion.  This is also Ohio’s third road game in 4 weeks, and Kent is playing their first home game vs. an FBS opponent.

Kent played Howard in week 2 at home and won 54-14 against the FCS foe.  I wouldn’t normally bring up a game like that, but Ohio needed a +4 TO margin to hang on against Howard in week 1 38-32.  Ohio was -222 yards in that game compared to Kent State who was +241. Kent State also did not rely on TO’s to get the victory.  

Kent State has faced the tougher schedule ranking 50th compared to Ohio ranking 100th.  They are only -1.73 yards per play compared to Ohio who is -0.72. Kent actually played well last week at Ball STate had a +2.8% success rate in the 52-24 loss which was a bit misleading.  I would not be shocked to see this game come down to a field goal.

Texas +7.5 -1.15 4.5 NCAAF POD

BYU -2.5 2.2% Play

Previously BYU did not view this game as a rivalry game, but this is one of the games they circled on their calendar in the off season.  It seems like everyone is on Utah State and their video like numbers, but they have had a very weak schedule so far this season while BYU has had a very challenging schedule facing 4 power 5 opponents in Washington, Wisconsin, Arizona and Cal, and 3 of those 4 were some of the best defenses last year.  BYU is also getting two defensive starters back in LB Anderson and S Ghanwoloku who missed last week so the defense should be able to stop the running game of Utah State that they have relied on so much scoring 17 TD's.  Utah State has simply dominated in the red zone this year, but again their opponents are not very talented on the defensive side of the ball besides Michigan State who may have been looking past them. 

In last year's loss, BYU actually held Utah State to 288 yards.  They actually led 21-7 in the 2nd quarter before their backup QB Beau Hoge was lost for the game.  In comes the offensive coordinator's son Koy Detmer, and he throws not 1, not 2, but 3 six picks and Utah State wins in very misleading fashion 40-26.  I think BYU has proven more this season in wins over Arizona and Wisconsin that they are a much improved team.  I don't really know what Utah State has proven up to this point.  They are coming off a bye, but they are going on the road so I think those two things even out.  With the two defensive returners returning for BYU, I expect a win by a TD or more.

California +8.5 / Virginia Tech +10.5 3.3% Teaser of the week 

Cal +8.5 - This is a brutal spot for Oregon after they choked up a game vs. Stanford last week in what was their game of the year.  I gave out Oregon as a premium play and really thought they would dominate.   I think Cal off the bye playing a team that went to OT will have an advantage here.  Cal is also very under rated on defense and I think will keep this to a one possession game and have a chance at the upset. This defense has been much improved under Wilcox, and Oregon has not been a good road team of late, and in conference play they are just 6-14 ATS over their last 20 conference games.  The struggles continue.

Virginia Tech +10.5

We get a low total and extra points here with Virginia Tech losing last week and the "turmoil" surrounding the program, but I think Virginia Tech cleaning house is a good thing for the program as the younger players are clearly more talented anyway based on recruiting class.  I'm interested to see QB Ryan Willis with a full week of prep, because he was thrown into a tough situation and actually looked better running the RPO than Jackson.  Duke, on the other hand is fat and happy and also playing a backup QB.  At the end of the day the team that can run the ball better will win this game, and I can not necessarily say Virginia Tech can do that, but it's going to be close, and this will be on possession game that comes down to the wire.  We are getting points to start with Virginia Tech losing last week to Old Dominion, points bc of 3.5 point line move, and 6 points on the teaser, and this is already a lower total at 50 points.

Ohio State -3.5 4.4% Play 

I am grabbing this number early in the week before it goes up to 6.  I have not been impressed with Penn State who has yet to see a decent defense.  They struggled and were trailing at Illinois halfway through the third quarter and our +28 Illinois ticket looked like it would cash.  However, Penn State made it a point to blow the game up and look good on paper covering the spread with ease throwing 40 yard passes up 25 with less than 5 minutes to go. 

I feel like the Big Ten is down this year, but Ohio State is the class of the league.  They got a nice warm up with Urban Meyer back in the mix, and I expect they win this game by double digits.  Penn State's defense is trash, and their offense will have issues against a good defensive line which Ohio State has.  Expect a high scoring game, but I don't see how Penn State can stop Ohio State's offense which is better than last year's. 

South Carolina +1 5.5% NCAAF POD

Kentucky is a hot pick right now and everyone is picking them over South Carolina this week.  I am high on Kentucky, and I even bet them at Florida, but I think this is a different match-up.  This is the first time Kentucky is in the AP Top 25 in 11 years and they are facing an unranked team yet they are only a 1 point favorite?  They have actually dominated South Carolina over the last 4 years winning 4 straight, but they are only a 1 point favorite? Kentucky is actually just 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, and South Carolina has covered their last 8 road games.

This is a different South Carolina that Kentucky has to go against this week compared to Florida and Miss State who they took down as double digit dogs.  Florida and Miss State can not pass the ball and are one dimensional on offense. South Carolina with Jake Bentley and their star receivers can move the ball through the air which should open up some running lanes.  The strength of this Kentucky team is in the front 7, and South Carolina’s offensive line has been very good protecting the QB ranking 9th in sack % allowed.

South Carolina is a balanced offense and although they rank similarly in yards per play at #20 to Miss State and Florida who ranked 18th and 22nd the strength of schedule South Carolina has faced to get there is totally different.  Miss State ranks 18th, but faced YPP defenses of 100th, 122 and an FCS foe. Florida ranks 22nd but faced 126, 95 and an FCS foe. South Carolina ranks 20th, can pass the ball, and played 116th, 23rd, and 41st ranked defenses.

South Carolina is also led by a defensive minded coach.  They held Benny Snell to 103 rushing yards on 32 carries which is pretty damn good in last year’s game.  South Carolina will force Terry Wilson at QB to beat them and so far he has 2 TD’s and 4 INT’s. This is simply a bad matchup for Kentucky.

California +8.5 / Virginia Tech +10.5 3.3% Teaser of the week 

Cal +8.5 - This is a brutal spot for Oregon after they choked up a game vs. Stanford last week in what was their game of the year.  I gave out Oregon as a premium play and really thought they would dominate.   I think Cal off the bye playing a team that went to OT will have an advantage here.  Cal is also very under rated on defense and I think will keep this to a one possession game and have a chance at the upset. This defense has been much improved under Wilcox, and Oregon has not been a good road team of late, and in conference play they are just 6-14 ATS over their last 20 conference games.  The struggles continue.

Virginia Tech +10.5

We get a low total and extra points here with Virginia Tech losing last week and the "turmoil" surrounding the program, but I think Virginia Tech cleaning house is a good thing for the program as the younger players are clearly more talented anyway based on recruiting class.  I'm interested to see QB Ryan Willis with a full week of prep, because he was thrown into a tough situation and actually looked better running the RPO than Jackson.  Duke, on the other hand is fat and happy and also playing a backup QB.  At the end of the day the team that can run the ball better will win this game, and I can not necessarily say Virginia Tech can do that, but it's going to be close, and this will be on possession game that comes down to the wire.  We are getting points to start with Virginia Tech losing last week to Old Dominion, points bc of 3.5 point line move, and 6 points on the teaser, and this is already a lower total at 50 points.

San Jose State +330 2% Play

Last week we gave out Purdue +218 and it cashed with ease over BC in a 30-7 victory.  This is a tough spot for Hawaii already their 6th game in 6 weeks and this is their 3rd time traveling while they face San Jose State team off a bye.  I really think San Jose can pull the upset here facing Hawaii who is getting plenty of action from bettors as their QB McDonald leads the nation in passing.  Hawaii however did not get off to a good start in their last game against Duquesne who took a 14-0 lead to start the game despite traveling over 5,000 miles.

San Jose State played well vs. their two PAC 12 opponents especially vs. the pass coming up with 5 interceptions against Washington State and Oregon.  They held Oregon’s Justin HErbert to 47% completion percentage, Herbert completed 78.8% of his passes against Stanford. THe passing defenses that McDonald has faced rank 119th, 108, 129, and 113th.  

Utah -1.5 

Utah off a bye here while Washington State is coming off a big road loss at USC.  Utah is 20-6 following a bye straight up under Kyle Whitingham and has revenge after losing the last three years to Washington State.  Last year they only lost by 8 points despite 7 turnovers.  That's hard to do, and they'll look to rebound following their poor loss against Washington at home 2 weeks ago.  The bye also helped the health of Utah whose most important offensive asset is Zack Moss, 100% for this game it sounds like.  Moss is one of the top backs in the nation when fresh and I think that will show in this game as Utah looks to rebound.  Utah still has the #1 efficiency pass defense which Wash St will want to do a lot of here.  I just feel like Utah is the better team here +2.43 yards per play vs. the 41st ranked SOS while Washington State is +1.61 yp vs the 74th ranked SOS.  Utah made many mistakes in their loss vs. Washington which I think a bye allowed them to work on.

PItt + 13 2.2% play

Over 75% of the tickets are on UCF, but 56% of the money is on PItt and the line that opened up at 14.5 is down to 13.  From a #’s perspective I have this around 10.5 or 11. So, I still think 13 is a decent # here, and it might be worth waiting if you can grab a 14 at your book later in the week, but overall I feel good about Pitt’s chances here.  

Pitt the last two years they have knocked off a #2 team in the nation.  Last year they knocked off Miami to close the year and the year before they knocked off Clemson on the road so it would not surprise me if they knocked another team in the top rankings off here.  IT’s worth noting that they won those two games coming off a loss. Pat Narduzzi already challenging his team’s effort against North Carolina last week so I think he will get their best effort here.   

UCF has a 16 game winning streak and are self proclaimed National Champions, but this team is a different team all together this year.  Their offense is still very good led by McKenzie Milton, but something tells me that they are due for a trip up, and they have a ton of pressure here to try to blow out Pitt.  UCF has played Uconn, SC State and FAU, a team that is not as good as last year, but still managed to rush for 320 yards against UCF.

If Pitt is smart they will slow this game down and run the ball.  So far this season they are averaging 5.44 yards per carry and they ran for more than 200 yards against both North Carolina and Penn State.  UCF has given up 320 to FAU, and 220 to Uconn in week 1.

Kansas +17 3.3% play

Oklahoma State was on the doorstep of cracking into the Top 10 after their blowout of Boise State which was extremely misleading.  Now they are coming off a big loss against Texas Tech at home, and there are red flags all over the place for this team. Since 2008 they are just 14-15-1 ATS following a SU loss so it’s not like this team rebounds under Gundy, and I also think they may not be excited for this game especially since with a loss they really can’t be thinking about bigger things this season.  In their last meeting at Kansas this was a 24-20 game halfway through the third quarter and I think Kansas can draw some confidence from that.

Kansas is playing good defense holding all 4 opponents under 40% success rate and two of them under 30%.  Oklahoma State has struggled on offense with Taylor Cornelius at QB and he just lost his second leading receiver who chose to red shirt and transfer.  Oklahoma State’s offense is only 13-40 on third downs this year and they have 7 TO’s in 4 games. Meanwhile Kansas is +12 TO margin on the year and has only turned the ball over once.

Kansas is certainly improved and I think they get a huge opportunity to prove that their two wins against Central Michigan and Rutgers were not a fluke.  My one worry would be the offensive line as Oklahoma State lead the nation with 19 sacks, but Kansas is actually smart running the ball 60% of the time and they have averaged over 5 yards per carry on the season led by Freshman Pooka Williams, 8.02 ypc.  Oklahoma State’s run defense has been solid, but their last trip to Kansas they actually allowed over 200 yards on the ground. Overall I think this game is going to be more of a defensive game, and I think Kansas can win the turnover battle.

Arkansas +21.5 2.2% Play @12pm ET

Nobody wants to touch Arkansas right now and that’s exactly the time we would like to back them.  I think there is tremendous value here and if you don’t see a 21.5 you will on Saturday, but I like 21 as I have this line at 17.  The spread in this game the last 3 years has been under a TD.

This will be a neutral field game at Jerry World in Dallas.  Arkansas 0-3 ATS vs. Texas A&M 4-0 ATS which just creates more line value and Arkansas looked pretty damn good against Auburn holding them to 225 yards in their 34-3 loss.  

Arkansas has to clean up its act on special teams, and not turn the ball over here and they should cover the spread.  A&M has only forced 1 TO all season, and they have struggled protecting their QB and will face Arkansas who is 3rd in adjusted sack rate.  The Aggies also have struggled to run the ball against Clemson/Alabama who I know have a better defense than Arkansas, but Arkansas was very impressive last weekend against a very good Auburn offense on the road.

Texas A&M meanwhile off their big game against Alabama.  TEams typically do not play well following an Alabama matchup.

Boston College -12.5 2.2% play 

A lot of Temple's success the last two games is due to their ability to get a pass rush in predictable passing situations and create turnovers.  I don't see them being able to get into that situation this week against Boston College, and I expect Boston College to run the ball, and when they do pass guys will be wide open on play action.  Temple has played better in their last two games and that has this line moving 14 points, but I have this game lined 18.5.  I wrote an article about how my initial lean was Temple, but the more I look at this game I really like Boston College's chances here. 

Temple has no offense to speak of ranking 104th in yards per play averaging less than 4 yards per carry and 50% completion percentage.  They really don't have the passing game to take advantage of Boston College's weakness which is their pass defense as we saw last week when Purdue passed for 296 yards 3 TD's and 0 INT's. 

Tulane +15 2.2% play 

Tulane is getting just 28% of the tickets and 37% of the money and we have seen this line move about 5 points.  Tulane is desperate for a win, and I think they will be in this game.  Their record is misleading here as they are 13 points away from being 3-1 instead of 1-3.  Their strength of schedule is far superior to Memphis.  Memphis has faced offensive/defensive rankings - 102/101, 100/129, and 92/86 + an FCS foe.  Compare that with Tulane who has faced 96/108 - That's Wake Forest and we know those #'s are much better, 54/88, and 8/31.  

Tulane played Wake Forest a very good offense to the wire and they get a similar look in Memphis, a team that is pretty balanced and wants to run up tempo.  They really held Wake Forest offense in check and that was very impressive.  Wake Forests numbers have been down due to play a tough schedule themselve featuring BC and Notre Dame.

This is the best offense that Memphis has faced and that's really not saying much.  Jonathan Banks has to be able to throw it and the offense has to be able to run the ball here at home on a Friday night I expect they will be able to.  Memphis gave up 264 rushing yards against Navy in a sloppy game that saw them turn it over 4 times.  There could be rain and similar conditions here tonight.

Memphis is also banged up on defense here with guys missing practice traveling on a short week there is value on Tulane.  Memphis was  4 TD favorite last week and they were tied with South Alabama at half time yet they keep getting steamed up and we will come back in on the other side and take the value as I have this game around 11.5 not 15! 

Arizona State / Washington Under 51.5 2.2% play

Arizona State held Washington to 7 points last year, and they hire DAnny Gonzalez, who was San Diego State’s defensive coordinator a year ago.  Arizona State running the 3-3-5 could give Washington some issues here, and that’s the reason I like the under along with the fact that both teams are going to lean on the running game first.  I really have not been impressed with Washington’s offense. Maybe this is the game they break out, but I don’t expect that to be the case. On the flip side Arizona’s State’s offense has been nothing special, and they’ll now face the best defense they have faced all year.  I can’t see them getting above 10 points to be honest.

Oregon +3 3.3% play

When is the last time Oregon defeated a decent team?  That is the question many are asking, and the reason why many are backing Stanford this week.  This is just the 4th time in the last 8 years that Oregon is a dog at home. Stanford is getting all the money because they have faced two solid teams in San Diego STate & USC and have won and covered, but now they go on the road for the first time this season and face an Oregon team that has not played anyone.

Oregon has a new offensive coordinator along with an offensive coach in Mario Cristobal in his first year.  The offense through the first three games has been “designing a new approach.” That’s exactly what the coaching staff called it, but I expect them to go back to what works and pull out all the stops to get a big time win at home.

What is hidden in all of this is how well Oregon’s defense has played and how poorly Stanford has run the ball.  I don’t anticipate much to change and Oregon’s aggressive defense will continue their improvement on defense this year under Jim Leavitt who is arguably a top 5 defensive coordinator in the nation.  He has drastically improved this unit that allowed less than 3 yards per carry at home. Stanford right now 120th in offensive success rate, and averaging just 3.84 ypc. Stanford just 2-5 straight up when they are held under 4 yards per carry the last two years and that is exactly what Oregon will try to do here, and I think they’ll be successful.

Michigan State / Indiana Under 49 2.2% play

Michigan State off the bye and off a loss should be stout on defense here.  I expect a similar result to the last two season where both those games went under this total.  Indiana is also moving much slower this season and they are led by a defensive minded coach in Tom Allen.   I am expecting Michigan State to be able to run the ball here which means slow methodical drives that keep the clock moving.

UNLV +7.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

There is some value here with UNLV, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog, and they continue to improve under Tony Sanchez and are poised to get back to a bowl game this year.  UNLV is a dominant running team and chooses to do so 67% of the time. This trends well in road games as a dog, and UNLV should be able to get the running game going in this game, because Arkansas State has had trouble stopping the run this year.  UNLV is also a very diciplined team with just 3.7 penalties per game compared to Arkansas State who is averaging 11 penalties per game. UNLV was very impressive at USC rushing for over 300 yards in their first game and held USC to only 1 passing TD.

Arkansas State has Justin Hansen at QB, but UNLV has already proven they can stop a talented QB or hold them in check.  I see a bend but don’t break defense here for UNLV with strengths in the red zone. UNLV’s Armani Rogers might just be better than Hansen.  When we look at Arkansas State they have dominated the Sun Belt - 17-7 ATS the last 3 seasons, but outside the Sun Belt they are just 4-10 ATS.  The Mountain West (UNLV’s conference) is 18-12 vs. the Sun Belt since 2010 +8.7 points per game. Boise State already took down Troy this season by 36 points.

Louisiana Tech +21 -115 3.5% play

This is a great spot for Louisiana Tech coming off a bye here facing LSU a team off a huge win on the road and has two wins over two top 10 teams as dogs.  This just seems like the type of game LSU makes fans worry. LSU lost at home last year to Troy 21-24, and Louisiana Tech has played these type of SEC teams well the past two years.  They lost 16-17 at South Carolina, and 20-21 at Arkansas in 2015. Against teams that run a quicker offense they haven’t had as much success. LSU looking toward their game against Ole Miss will likely want to get out of this game healthy.

Louisiana Tech thinking about an upset.  This is Skip Holtz most experienced team in 6 years here, and it’s the first time he has a starting QB and LT back.  As an away dog they have gone 10-3 ATS the last 4 seasons. LSU has really struggled offensively ranking 110th in offensive efficiency.  Their QB is only completing 45.6% of his passes and they average 333.7 yards per game which includes only 335 against SE Louisiana.

Liberty +12.5 2.2% play

I missed out on the early value on this line at 14.5 as the sharps gobbled that up.  Still worth a play here as I feel this line should be around a TD instead.

Liberty is getting no respect here, because North Texas is coming off a road win in SEC Country over Arkansas, but largely benefited from +6 TO’s and a punt return TD.  Arkansas lost the week before to Colorado State, who we know is one of the worst Group of 5 teams out there. I think that game said more about how bad Arkansas is than how good North Texas is.  This is back to bad road games for North Texas, and they go from arguably the biggest win in program history to traveling to Virginia to play a team that was in the FCS last year. North Texas feeling pretty happy with themselves right now but are about to face an opponent that can actually pass the ball.

Both these teams can pass the ball, but I give an edge to Liberty at home.  Stephen Calvert is off to a great start and had a 29TD to 6 INT Ratio last year.  North Texas, Mason Fine had 12 interceptions in road games last year. This will be an exciting game, and while the win over Arkansas was impressive I don’t think they should be a double digit favorite against a team that beat Old Dominion by 42 points to open the year.  Worth noting is Liberty also beat Baylor last year asa 30 point dog.

Clemson -15.5 2.2% play

Clemson got a glimpse of the triple option last week in a tune up game before Georgia Tech.  Not that they really needed it as they have held Georgia Tech to a combined 17 points the last two years.  Clemson really feels due for a big win here, and I’m sure they want it as they are not being talked about with the likes of Oklahoma, Georgia and Alabama.  This just feels like a game where Clemson will come out with a 3 TD dominating victory.

Ball State -2.5 2.2% play 

I was waiting for this line to drop below 3 and I was going to grab it.  Ball State looks to revenge last year's 33-21 loss at Western Kentucky.  That game was misleading as Ball State led 21-20 with under 5 minutes to play. Western Kentucky starting a backup QB here, and off a 20-17 loss at Louisville which gives us value here as Ball State got beat 38-10 at Indiana.  I think Ball State will have more luck running the ball, and if you recall they held Notre Dame on the road in check on the ground.  They went on the road to play another P5 opponent last week, and seem to run out of gas.  Western Kentucky is poorly coached and lost to Maine this season.  

Purdue +218 2.5% Play 

Purdue is in desperation mode again after finishing another game with a big mistake int he 4th quarter with a penalty.  They are now 0-3 SU despite having the post game win probability.  Meanwhile Boston College comes in and are 3-0 SU & ATS and everyone has been hyping this team up all pre-season long and they are backing it up right now, but I think their defense got exposed a bit against Wake Forest last week.  This is a tough game for Boston College, to go on the road for the second week in a row facing an 0-3 team from the Big Ten, a conference that is not getting a lot of good press right now.  Meanwhile they will face Purdue's offense that is just hitting on all gears right now ranked 11th in the country in yards per play.  Purdue also matches up well as they are more successful stopping the run and have a weakness against the pass.  Purdue's coaching staff is legit and they are a desperate team right now that doesn't quit.  I expect they will come out with a big win here. 

Ohio +7.5 3.3% play

Just 3 weeks ago Ohio would have been a 3 point favorite, but Cincinnati is 3-0 SU & ATS after some big wins including one as a double digit road dog at UCLA to open up the season.  They beat Miami Ohio as a pk in rough weather conditions 21-0 and here we are.

We are getting serious line value here and Ohio finally looked like Ohio in the second half against Virginia last week.  They face a freshman QB here, and they will face a very obvious play strategy as Cinci has run the ball 50+ times in all of their games running it 71% of the time.  Ohio is usually stout against the run and their weakness this year is against the pass. This total has dropped by nearly 7 points expecting a lower scoring game I’ll take the dog with a shot to pull the upset.

Kent St/ Ole Miss Over 74 2.2% play

I expect Kent State to continue their high octane offense averaging 16.33 possessions per game which is good for 5th in the nation.  Ole Miss comes in at 15, and I expect they’ll be able to score on 10 of their 15 drives in this game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ole Miss in the 60’s here as they look to rebound from their game last week against Alabama where they had only 7 points.

USC -3 -125 4% PLAY - Buy 1/2

We are getting a ton of value here with USC.  USC definitely an overrated team this year and expected to take a step back, but I think they looked good in the first half on the road against Texas before they had too many mistakes.  Coming back home facing a Washington State team that they have revenge against should help.  Clay Helton is 1-10 ATS as a dog at USC, and we are not in that role here on Friday night against a Washington State team that has not played a team with any sort of offense having faced an FCS foe, San Jose (130th YPP), and Wyoming (104th YPP).  USC meanwhile has played 27th, 32nd, and 66th ranked foes.  

USC following a loss of 14+ points are 17-9 ATS in their next game as a favorite since 1985 and they are 11-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3-6.5 points after just a loss since 1985, and they are 10-2 ATS if they lost as a dog in their last game and are now a home favorite of 3-6.5. Point is USC does not find themselves in the situation as a home favorite by a TD or less very often.  Especially following a loss meaning we are getting excellent value on this team right now.  USC averaged nearly 6 yards per carry on the road in this match-up last year, and I think they will lean on the run at home and not put too much pressure on JT Daniels to win the game with his arm, but they'll let him take some shots to get up big early. 

Illinois +28 3.3% play 

This line is off by 4-5 points in my opinion it should be around 23 or 23.5.  We also have an unusual situation here with Penn State traveling on a short week, facing an opponent they have no seen since 2015, and playing at 9pm at night.  Penn State also clearly looking ahead to next week's home game against Ohio State while Illinois has a bye.  Illinois would love to go into a bye with a well played game here, and I think they can have success in this game by slowing the game down. 

Penn State's offense with 53ppg is extremely misleading.  Trace McSorley has not played very well compared to last season and has really missed the offensive coordinator Joe Moorehead completing 52% of his passes compared to 67% and they haven't played anyone worth speaking of.  

I think Illinois here can have enough success running the ball whether AJ Bush is out there or not Rivers looked good as the backup QB a week ago.  Illinois ranks 28th in the nation averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and Penn State has not been a rock stopping the run.  Illinois RB MIke Epstein is really underrated 7.17 ypc. 

Utah +5 4.4% NCAAF POD @ 10pm et

I like the Utes to pull the upset here.  Utah has been a tough out for Washington in their last 3 matchups.  Utah won by 11, they lost by 7 on a last minute kick return TD, they lost by 3 last year as they gave up 10 points in the final minute. 

Utah to me has the better QB in this one in Tyler Huntley who threw for 293 passing yards at Washington last year 2 TD’s and 1 INT.  Jake Browning has really struggled on the road in his career against good defenses, and Utah should be able to stop the run.  They held Washington to 124 yards on the ground on the road last year, and just got done holding run heavy Northern Illinois to 117 and under 3 yards per carry.

Utah has an excellent home field advantage and a very good special teams.  I expect a close game with Utah being in position to win the game outright.

Illinois +10.5 3.3% play @ 3:30PM et

Illinois returns 16 starters, and already their offense has scored more points in back to back games 31 and 34 than in any game last year.  South Florida has Virginia Tech transfer AJ Bush at QB, who is questionable this game, but the unknown of MJ Rivers, another mobile QB is something I am comfortable with in this game.  Illinois game plan is to slow the game down and hold onto the football, and that’s something they have been able to do through two games with 31 minutes time of possession.  Illinois is running the ball 65% of the time and they are averaging 6 yards per carry behind Reggie Corbin.  South Florida’s run defense is questionable with 5 returning starters on defense they are inexperienced in the front 7.  They gave up 192 yards to Elon and 419 to Georgia Tech.

South Florida had a 21% postgame win probability last week against Georgia Tech but were lucky to have +3 TO margin and 2 kick off return TD’s as they were outgained by 170 yards on the day.  South Florida now has to travel and play in Chicago something they are not used to.  Illinois remembers the beat down from last year, but this is a very different USF team that is getting a lot of credit based on last year’s results and a very lucky win last week.  Ironically Illinois ranks higher in recruiting classes 3 of the last 4 years.

Auburn -9.5 3.3% play

I like Auburn a lot in this game against LSU.  LSU’s offensive line is going to have real difficult time protecting their QB in this game, and they will have trouble scoring points.  LSU in week 2 had a 31-0 victory over SE Louisiana, but only put up 335 total yards. In week 1 against Miami they scored 33 points, but only had 296 total yards.  Auburn’s defense is better than Miami and this is a true road game for LSU. They will be held to under 250 yards in this game.

Auburn’s offense should score 20+ points here.  They have a veteran QB in Jarret Stidham. This is a team that put up 420 yards of offense against Washington, but struggled settling for FG’s.  They got some confidence in week 2 against Alabama State that will carry over to this game as they scored 63 points and had 567 total yards.

Oklahoma State -2.5 2.2% play @ 3:30pm ET

Boise State is a popular dog this week that I'd look to fade. Oklahoma State is a very well coached team under Mike Gundy and he has done a far better job recruiting here compared to Bryan Harsin at Boise State. On average over the last 4 years Oklahoma State has had a recruiting class that is 29 places ahead of Boise State.Oklahoma State is not often a short favorite at home. Since 2008 when they are less than a TD favorite at home they are 9-3-1 ATS. When they are facing a non-conference opponent since 1985 they are 37-18-1 ATS as a home favorite and when that spread is under 10 points they are 15-2 ATS. The Big 12 has also dominated the Mountain West going 13-2 since 2010 while outscoring the Mountain West by 18 points per game. That includes Boise State losing as a favorite to Baylor 31-12 in a bowl game. The 2 wins came from TCU & Utah who are now playing in power 5 conferences. Boise State is just getting a lot of hype while there is this thought that Oklahoma State is rebuilding. Oklahoma State has a senior at QB in Taylor Cornelius and a senior at RB in Justice Hill who can take it to the house on any play. Boise State looked great against the likes of Troy and Uconn, but they are about to see a top 10 passing offense. Boise State has been a good dog cover on the road, but they really have not been scheduling these type of games the last few years facing only Virginia, Washington State & Oregon State the last two years who are from the worst of the Power 5 Conferences. This is a team that lost to Virginia as a 13 point favorite.

Vanderbilt +13.5 2.2%  @ 2:30PM ET

I missed out on the 14.5 earlier in the week, but I think there is still a good amount of line value here with Vanderbilt who sports the better QB in this match-up.  Vanderbilt also looks much improved on defense while Notre Dame is really struggling on the offensive line and Brandon Wimbush is simply not a very good throwing QB.

Notre Dame offensive line is averaging less than 3 yards per carry in their first two games.  Notre Dame lost 2 OL’s to the NFL and they also lost their OL coach. Last week at home they struggled against a MAC team in Ball State who runs a 3-4 defense.  Vanderbilt also runs a 3-4 defense and has better talent than Ball State.  Notre Dame just not a very good team when they can’t run the ball.  Since 2016 season they are just 3-9 straight up when they don’t rush for more than 4.5 yards per carry.

I mentioned Vanderbilt had the better QB, and they do with Kyle Shurmur.  Schurmur is not afraid of playing on the road and he was great last year with a 16 TD to 2 INT ratio in road games at MTSU, Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee.  As long as Vanderbilt doesn’t lose the TO margin I see them in position to pull the upset.  Vanderbilt’s defense is playing a more aggressive style and has forced 6 TO’s through 2 games and Brandon Wimbush has 1 TD and 4 INT thus far.

Iowa State +17.5 3.3% play 

A lot of people are going to be jumping on Oklahoma this week.  They have looked dominant in their first two weeks of the season, and there is the "revenge" angle that the media is going to hype up from last year when Iowa State went into Oklahoma and shocked the world.  There is just too much value here on Iowa State, a team I can actually see pulling the upset again.  They have a very underrated home field advantage, and we are getting value here, because they lost 13-3 to Iowa, but that game was much closer.

Matt Campbell has done a fantastic job here and is 11-6-1 ATS as a dog at Iowa State and dating back to his Toledo days in 2012 he is a combined 21-11-1 ATS as an underdog and 7-2 ATS as a double digit dog.  He has not lost by more than 10 points since 2016 when he took Iowa State over.  This Iowa State defense is legit and has proven they can stop the run.  I'm not sold on Kyler Murray to go into a hostile environment for the first time and dominate and that's what he's going to have to do against Iowa State to cover this spread. I also am looking to still fade the AP Preseason Top 10.  Doing so over the first 3 weeks results in a 56% ATS history over the last 6 years combined.

MTSU +33 3.3% PLAY @ 12PM ET

This is far too many points for Georgia to be laying against a very good C-USA team in Middle Tennessee with 17 returning starters and an experienced QB.  The reason is Georgia looked fantastic last week against South Carolina on the road, and Middle Tennessee has already lost to an SEC opponent of lesser quality in Vanderbilt 35-7.  That was a very misleading final as MTSU was only -52 yards in that game, and they always struggle playing their instate rival.

Georgia is getting Alabama respect here and I don’t know that it really is deserving.  Let’s take a look at Georgia against non-p5 opponents.  This year they ran just 60 plays in a 45-0 win over Austin Peay.  Last year they defeated App State by a score of 31-10 and ran only 64 plays.  Last year against Samford they won 42-14 and only ran 69 plays.  IN 2016 they beat Nichols St 26-24 at home, and 35-21 over Lafayette.

On the other hand Middle Tennessee covered as +35 in 2015 at Alabama, +7 at Missouri in 2016 winning outright, +10 last year at Syracuse winning outright.  They have had their struggles against Vanderbilt, but have played well against other P5 opponents.  Georgia also moved this game up to a noon kickoff because of the hurricane so it will be an easier road environment for MTSU and Georgia is going to want this game to be over quickly with a road game at Missouri on deck.

Wake Forest +6.5 2.2% play 

Everyone is on Boston College here and Wake Forest is getting absolutely no respect in my opinion.  This game has been moved up because of the incoming hurricane and weather conditions won't be ideal with the winds.  This typically favors a run first team like Boston College, but I think Wake Forest is prepared and has a better shot of stopping the run than does Boston College.  Let's take a look at the facts. 

Wake Forest's weakness on defense is vs. the pass, and so I like this match-up against BC who has run the ball 70% of the time this year.  AJ Dillon is no doubt a great back so far, but the hype is just too much if you ask me.  Wake's run defense was impressive last year holding opponents to 3.47 yards per carry at home, 4.31 in conference play while BC was 4.95 ypc ont he road and 4.46 ypc allowed in conference play.  BC just got done giving up a ton of yards vs. Holy Cross on the ground, and I expect Wake to have more success running the ball than most people think.  In last year's game at Boston College it was Wake Forest who out gained Boston College on the ground 158 to 142.  Both team's return their offensive line which are the strengths of the team and I just feel like Wake Forest will keep this game close. 

Freddy gave out Oklahoma -20.5 as his free play in week 1 and it was an easy winner moving him to 31-9 ATS over his last 40 Free College Football Picks!

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San Jose State +34 1.1% Play 

The Spartans will head on the road to play at Washington State. I think we are getting 6 points of line value here as Washington State went on the road and shocked Wyoming with a big margin of victory. I know a lot of sharps that were all over Wyoming, and I would have played Washington State. This week is the week you would definitely look to fade them. Washington State in early season games vs. non-power 5 have not done well going 1-6 ATS the last 3 seasons in the first 3 weeks of the season including 2 losses against FCS opponents in 2015 & 2016. San Jose State with 14 returning starters have 2 extra days of preparation for this game having played last Thursday losing to FCS foe UC Davis.

Michigan State -6 2.2% Play

The game of the year line on this game is 10 points, but last week Arizona State looked great against UTSA, a team many were picking to pull the upset as the cruised to a 49-7 victory.  Michigan St meanwhile was in a dogfight against Utah State on their home field winning by just 7 points.  I'm not really worried about that Mark Dantonio will have his boys ready to play after an extra day of rest & prep for Arizona State.

Michigan State still dominated in stopping the run, and Arizona State is going to be a team that leans on the running game under Herman Edwards.  They ran the ball 35 times and threw it just 24 times in week 1 and I expect a similar run first game plan which just doesn't stack up against the Spartans.  I think we are getting the better team in X's and O's from the better conference, and the better coach.  Worth noting is 1st year head coaches in the power 5 do not do well as underdogs going 72-97 ATS since 2012.

The Big Ten has dominated the PAC 12 the last two years going 4-0 SU & ATS last bowl season.  Their only 2 losses came when Nebraska lost on the road at Oregon by only 7 points, and Rutgers lost but covered the spread against Washington.  Michigan State also has nothing to look ahead to as they'll be on a bye after this week. 

Kentucky +14 2.2% play 

Kentucky had 3 defensive players turn the NFL down to return for their senior season. The idea? They want to win this game and leave their mark on this program. They nearly did it last year holding a 24-14 lead in the final minutes before losing 28-27 in heartbreaking fashion. Florida is getting far too much respect here in the number after defeating an FCS foes last week in Charleston Southern who went 6-5 last year. Meanwhile, Kentucky actually had a very impressive victory over Central Michigan despite the 35-20 final. Kentucky did not actually cover the spread due to 4 turnovers. Their defense dominated and the rushing game looked better than ever.Florida and Kentucky have their guys back in the trenches. The trenches definitely go to Florida who outgained Kentucky on the ground by 63 yards last season. However, Florida is breaking in a new defense switching to the 3-4 which could create some issues for them in the early going. Kentucky breaks in a new QB in the #1 JUCO transfer Terry Wilson who is extremely mobile. I expect Kentucky to have more success running the ball and they should be able to do a better job defending the run. Kentucky have been close in 3 of the last 4 years against Florida. This is the most experienced Kentucky team that Mark Stoops has had and his defense should be better this season as they have improved the last two years. Florida cracked the top 25, after their offense showed off against an FCS Foe, and I think it's extremely misleading.  Florida still does not have a QB. Felipe Franks really does not fit the mold of what Dan Mullen wants to do and I don't anticipate them putting up a ton of points in this one. Expect Kentucky to be right back in the thick of things for the 4th time in the last 5 years. Maybe they can finally break the 31 game losing streak.

Umass +2.5 3.3% PLAY

We backed Umass last week against Boston College and they were pretty much out of the game by the end of the first quarter.  I do like what i’m hearing from head coach Whipple and the defensive players who want to rebound. I think they will here against Georgia Southern who is back to running the triple option.  Most of what hurt Umass last week was through the air, and they should be able to put up 30+ points in this matchup. This was a matchup they led 48-17 in the first half last year. I see we are getting roughly 9 points of line value based on Umass getting dominated by a BC team that is much improved this year.

Umass has done very well on the road in the past and return 9 starters on offense including QB Andrew Ford which is why I backed them at +18 last week.  Last year they hung and had chances to win at Tennessee as a +28 dog, and they were in the game against a very good Miss State team as +33 dogs. Remember this is now their 3rd game and they have been battle tested along with one easy game.  This is is a coin flip game for them, and I expect they will have a lot of things to apply from games 1 and 2 to this week’s game plan to come up with a win.

South Carolina +10 2.2% play

I talked about South Carolina a good amount in my pre-season podcast and they are a live dog here in week 2 in my opinion.  For one their offense is much improved and they have the talent to score on a Georgia defense that has lost some talent. I think they will be able to take advantage of that and put up some points here to stay within striking distance.  Georgia also falls under my strategy of fading the AP Top 10. I’m excited to see what the offense dials up and I think Deebo Samuel will have a big game at WR.

Georgia lost their 2 best offensive players in Chubb & MIchael and their leadership will be missed.  Defensively they lost their best defensive player in Roquan Smith. This is a young Georgia team and it’s their first road game of the season against South CArolina who has a very good home field advantage.  Georgia’s road games in SEC play last year were very easy with trips to Tennessee, VAnderbilt, and then Auburn (they got crushed 17-40).

Georgia Tech -3.5 2.2% play

Georgia Tech is under the radar after a losing season.  They return 8 starters on offense, and their defense got a big upgrade in their defensive coordinator Nate Woody.  Ga Tech already pitched their first shutout in game 1 defeating and dominating Alcorn State of FCS. Alcorn State was picked by many to win their conference so it was an impressive victory by the final of 41-0.

Georgia Tech also has a senior QB running the offense which is always a big deal for Georgia Tech.  Meanwhile USF only has 11 returning starters losing their best QB ever in Quinton Flowers, and their top 2 RB’s and top WR.  They also lost their top 3 tacklers and the front 7 on defense lost a ton of talent. That does not bode well for defending the triple option.  ACC has done well the last two years facing the American going 4-1, and Georgia Tech is 2-0 all time facing the AAC. The last time South Florida’s defense faced the triple option they faced Navy and gave up 45 points.

Nevada + 8.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

I think Nevada is a live dog this week as Vanderbilt is off a misleading 35-7 final over Middle Tennessee their instate rival with Notre Dame on deck.  Nevada has a Sr. QB in Ty Gangi who can really be a weapon in the air raid offense that Nevada runs and Vanderbilt rarely sees. Vanderbilt actually allowed MIddle Tenn twice as many yards in the first half, but held onto a 14-7 halftime lead.  Overall MIddle Tennessee had 7 trips into VAnderbilt territory and came away with an amazing 0 points. Don’t expect Nevada to fall into the same situation.

Vanderbilt should be down this year with just 5 returning on defense and 12 overall.  Nevada held their own in a meaningful game a year ago at Northwestern losing 21-30 and I expect they will be in this game with a chance to win it in the end.

Florida State -7 2.2% Play

Florida State embarks on a new era under Head Coach Willie Taggart.  Taggart will bring a new offense that is focused on speed, and more plays.  One would think this may be very challenging at the start of a season and it might take Florida State a little to really get in gear with this offense, but the system is meant to be simple and easy to run.  Deondre Francois is the perfect guy to run it and he has a ton of experience around him with 8 returning starters on the offense.  He's got some really good receivers led by Nyqwan Murray, and Cam Akers at RB is a star in the making. 

While Florida State's biggest question mark on offense is the new spread  up-tempo attack, Virginia Tech has bigger questions.  The talent and experience is at least there for Florida State, but with Virginia Tech they have sophomore Joshua Jackson in his second year surrounded by a young supporting cast.  Virginia Tech's defense, is in rebuilding mode, and Jackson really did not perform on the road last year in ACC play where he had 2 passing TD's in 4 games to 4 INT's.  That came against the likes of BC, Miami, Georgia Tech and Virginia.  Those 4 teams all had good passing defenses, but Florida State is right in the mix ranking 14th last year and could be better this year.  The Virginia Tech offense scored 23, 10, 22, and 10 points in those games and we could see a similar point total tonight around the 16.25 point average, which would lead to a Florida State cover.  

Florida State's offense is going to play faster so a spread of 7 points is more like 4 or 4.5 and Taggart has proven in the past that his system is simplistic.  Oregon put up 77 points in their first game running it last year, and they really didn't have the right QB to run it.  I do expect to see some rust early from Francois, but his teammates around him will pick him up and he'll feed off the energy of the Florida State crowd. 

Navy -10 3.3% play 

Navy is coming off a rare poor year and losing year ATS and I expect them to bounce back with their deepest QB group ever.  Navy following a losing record ATS under Ken Niumatalolo are 26-13 ATS and following a 5-8 ATS year I expect they will get back to a 9 or 10 win season while contending in the AAC.  This is a tough road game traveling all the way to Hawaii, but Hawaii played last week and made the trip to and from Colorado, and have not been good at home going 4-18-1 ATS.  I always felt playing Hawaii early in the season was the way to go, but they already spoiled that in week 0 with an outright upset of Colorado State as a 17 point dog, and now we are getting 4 points of value. 

Ken Niumatalolo also was the QB here and is very aware of the challenges traveling to play Hawaii and the distractions.  You really have to be disciplined and there are not many more disciplined teams than a service academy like Navy.  I expect them to be ready and they will give this Hawaii defense who lost 6 of their top 9 tacklers last season and did not face a triple option team in 2017.  I just don't see them being able to stop Navy having not seen the triple option in 2 years so I expect Navy to put up their usual 40+ points in week 1. 

Michigan +1.5 3.3% play

There has been a lot of talk about Michigan and how they do in step up games, but when you look at Notre Dame under Brian Kelly they may even be worse.  JIm Harbough is getting beat up in the press, and this is the type of game he absolutely needs and I think he gets with his most experienced roster yet with 17 returning starters and transfer Shea Patterson.  The loss of Tarik Black is a big one at WR, but they can overcome that with a star QB in Patterson. Michigan’s defense is arguably the best in the country, and return 9 starters with Don Brown’s system and the defense played better than expected a year ago.  Now without Amazon following them around I feel like this is a breakout year for the Wolverines and watch out for Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich to make some noise on the defense in this game against a one dimensional Notre Dame team.

Notre Dame is one dimensional until proven otherwise.  They lose their top RB, WR, and 2 offensive lineman to the NFL, and Wimbush returns, but has not impressed in camp following a season he completed less than 50% of his passes.  Notre Dame went 0-3 when they could not rush for more than 3.5 yards per carry. 2.72 in losses, 7.19 in wins and that will be the key here as they lost to teams ranking 32nd, 20th, and 78th against the run a year ago.  Michigan fully healthy should shut this unit down in my opinion.

Notre Dame is also basically a dog here when they are ranked higher in the polls is very puzzling.  As I spoke in the off-season fading the ap top 10 pre-season teams in their first 3 games gets you a 56% ATS mark since 2013.  Taking out last year’s anomaly it’s actually 60% winners. Notre Dame also off a 8-5 ATS season has failed to follow that up with a winning season under Kelly going 14-24 ATS the following year, 5-9 ATS as a home favorite, and just 8-22 ATS vs. power 5 opponents.  The only thing that is helping Notre Dame here is that they are at home, but under Kelly they have actually lost at home 5 times in the last two years alone and to teams like Duke, and Navy so you are not talking about top tier teams.

Miami Ohio +120 5.5% NCAAF POD

I don’t really understand why Miami is a home dog here when they are on the same level as Marshall.  I think the MAC is pretty even to C-USA as well and this was the season opener last year where Miami Ohio actually played better but lost the game.  The game was at Marshall and Miami Ohio was a small road favorite and outgained Marshall 429 - 267, but lost because of 2 kick return TD’s and a 72 yard interception returned for a TD.  Luckily we had Miami Ohio in a teaser and still covered, but it was a warning sign to a very unlucky season for Miami Ohio that I believe they are motivated to turn around in 2018.

Miami Ohio had 4 losses by 5 points or less, they lost their QB for 3 games in Gus Ragland (returning), 2 OL starters.  This all after they beame the first team in college football history to start 0-6 and finish 6-0 in 2016 behind Ragland who had a 17 TD to 1 INT Ratio.  This is obviously a game they want to make a statement about what kind of team they will be in 2018. They have senior leadership all over the field who have been starting since 2016 and were part of that turn around.

Marshall here returns 18 starters, but they are getting enough credit here in the line.  I really don’t like this team as a road favorite under Doc HOlliday as they are better an an underdog role.  Under Holliday they have gone 8-14-1 ATS as a road favorite. This was a winning team ATS last year so we naturally want to fade them the following year despite the 18 returning starters they do not return their starting QB.  They get a grad transfer from Wagner who is hyped to have NFL talent, but going up against a very underrated Miami Ohio defense I think the offense will struggle as they did a year ago.

UNLV / USC Under 64 2.2% play 

USC has announced that they will start a true freshman in JT Daniels, and with Stanford on deck I am expecting a fairly vanilla game plan.  Expect a lot more runs to break the true freshman into his first college football game.  For UNLV they rant he ball nearly 62% of the time and that will keep the clock moving.  USC has a big game with Stanford on deck and I don't anticipate a team that had tons of injuries last year to do anything crazy here. 

App State +24 2.2% play

You will be paying a premium to back Penn State who is #10 in the pre-season polls but will be taking a step back offensively and defensively this year.  Penn State returns just 10 starters and I know they have their starting QB back, but they lose their offensive coordinator who changed everything for this program the last two years where they went 19-8 ATS mainly because of the offense.  James Franklin was on the hot seat before that going 10-16 ATS.

App State is a tough team that plays will in these big games.  They lost by only 21 at Georgia last year, a team that played for the National Championship, and nearly beat Tennessee who was ranked in the top 10 in 2016, losing by just 7 points on the road.  There are a lot of things to like including Penn State looking ahead ot a big in-state road game at Pitt in week #2. With inexperienced offensive coordinator calling the plays I don’t expect to see the ultra aggressive offensive style of pay.

Washington +121 2% ML Dog Play

You could wait to see a 3 or risk playing this in live betting, but I like the value we get with the Huskies here.  Auburn lost their top two RB, and they have a rebuilt offensive line.  Their strength is QB Jarret Stidham and his receivers, but that falls into the strength of the Washington Huskies.  Washington arguably has the best secondary in the nation as their defense returns 9 total starters.  Jarret Stidham however has struggled against good defenses.  He threw for just 79 yards in a loss to Clemson, 145 yards in a loss to Georgia, and 165 yards in a loss to LSU.  

This is going to be a low scoring game in my opinion, but I like Washington to avoid the mistakes, and Auburn loses in Georgia for the third time in a row.  Chris Peterson is notorious from coming all this way to open up a season against an opponent that is supposed to be better and winning.  I think we will see better QB play from Jake Browning this year and this is his opportunity. 

Umass +18 3.3% play

I like Umass here who played last week and scored 63 points.  They have a ton of talent on offense led by seniors including QB Andrew Ford.  They have gone 5-1 ATS vs. power 5 schools the last two seasons and nearly won outright last year in SEC country against the likes of Tennessee and Miss State.  They have had all offseason to think about the possibilities of defeating an in-state big brother like Boston College who got a ton of hype in the offseason. So much hyp that their season win total rose from 5.5 to 7 points.  They’ll have to contend with a Umass team that is 8-2 ATS the last two seasons as an away dog who will be playing with a ton of confidence following last week’s game.

Boston College was a run first team in 2017 and I don’t expect much to change in 2018 as they ran the ball 62% of the time.  That keeps the clock ticking and gives us a good chance of covering the 18 with Umass who has a good offense and the potential of pulling an upset.

Army/Duke Under 45.5 2.2% Play 

These two teams know each other well having played each other each of the last three years.  Neither team is really going to look to surprise the other, and both want to run the ball first and slow the game down.  Army was 130th in pace of play last year while Duke was 58th, but both teams were in the top 11 in the country in plays per possession and time of possession.  This will limit the scoring opportunities. 

Duke has always been a good team against the triple option under David Cutcliffe, and the fact that they are 14 points with revenge, 8 returning starters on the defense, and 79% of their tackles back.  This is the fastest defense Duke has had and I really think they can shut down Army's triple option and hold them under 14 points in this game given that they had all off season to prepare.  They are definitely not looking past Army considering they lost this game last year.

Offensively Duke will run the ball when they have a lead which we expect in this game since they are 14 point favorites.  In their wins last year they ran the ball 50 times compared to 32 time sin their losses.  The last 5 season openers Duke has held opponents to 6.6 points per game.

Syracuse -5 2.2% play 

I really like for Syracuse to make a statement in this game against Western Michigan.  I think we are getting a bit of line value from previous season when Western Michigan competed with the big boys.  Syracuse is also an under rated team this year.  People forget they knocked off Clemson and went 4-8 with the #2 toughest schedule in the country while dealing with tons of injuries including their QB Dungey who is back in this game playing behind an experienced offensive line.

The offense returns 8 starters, and it will be Dino Baber's best offense in his third year here.  I actually think they will have a lot of success running and throwing the ball this year.  They'll be going up against Western Michigan's defense which is predicted to take a step back this year.  They lost their star CB and all 3 of their starting linebackers. Syracuse also has Wagner on deck while Western Michigan has Michigan so you tell me who has focused on this game more in the off season.  Syracuse really can't afford to lose this game and need to get off to a good start for a change.

I think Syracuse should win here by double digits.  The MAC has not done well against ACC going 3-25 since 2010 being outscored by 17.8 points per game.  Since 2015 it's gotten worse they have gone 0-12 and have been outscored by 26.1 points per game.  This is an unusual situation where the game means more to the Power 5 school than it does to the MAC school. 

Northwestern +2 2.2% play 

I'm taking the Wildcats as the most experienced team here with a veteran and future NFL QB in Clayton Thorson who should be back after suffering an ACL injury in the bowl game last year.  I also peaked at the total given that Purdue's offense will be improved and the defense will take a major step back, but Pat Fitzgerald's teams typically stay under the total early in the season and that line has moved almost 4 points.

Northwestern has been a profitable play as a road dog going 10-3 ATS since 2014 season and I think they have the more complete team here.  Northwestern's defense returns 7 starters and have ranked in the top 30 in run defense in each of the last 3 years.  Northwestern's secondary is experienced after suffering injuries in 2017 and that should help them particularly in the red zone.  Purdue does need to run the ball to set up the pass as they were +1 yards per carry and 10 rushing TD's to 2 in wins vs. losses last year.  Purdue may be able to pass the ball and score some points, but without balance I don't see them really being able to score TD's.  Purdue had 398 yards passing against Northwestern last year and only scored 13 points to put thing into perspective. 

I really do like Jeff Brohm as a head coach, and in year 2, power 5 head coaches have success, but mostly as under dogs.  I'll fade Brohm here as Purdue is getting too much respect and hype based off last year's results when Brohm even admitted he inherited quite a good team in 2017.  This year will likely be a step back. 

Wake Forest -6 3.3% play

I think we are getting some line value here with Wake Forest at Tulane.  I know a lot of folks are high on Tulane with year #3 of Willie Fritz system, but I think they are still a year away.  Their defense returned only 5 guys while losing 3 on the defensive line.  Wake Forest offense which has broken school records the last two years and started sophomores on their offensive line 2015 returns all 5 of their guys along the offensive line.  

Wake Forest starting QB Kendall Hinton is suspended for this game, but I really think Wake Forest is going to be able to control the line of scrimmage.  Their offense should put up enough points while Tulane which runs the option should be able to move the ball a bit here as well.  However, Wake Forest is used to seeing the option.  They faced Tulane last year, and they have regularly faced Georgia Tech and/or Army each season.  

Dave Clawson is a very under rated head coach and what he has done at Wake Forest has been truly impressive.  I look to go against the popular dog play here and take Wake Forest to open the season after extra time to prepare for the option and win big. 

Georgia +4 5.5% POD

I give a small edge in coaching to Alabama with Nick Saban having an 11-0 record 9-2 ATS vs. former assistants, but note that he was on average a 17 point favorite in those games.  No coach ever spent more than 5 years with Saban while Kirby Smart spent the last 8 years up until 2015.  Georgia's offensive coordinator Jim Chaney I have over Jeremy Pruitt who takes over Tennessee after this game.  Chaney spent years with NFL teams and in the SEC, but more importantly brought his offensive line coach Sam Pittman.  Pittman knows how to run the ball and get his line to block.  Just ask Arkansas and Brett Bielema how they did after Pittman left.

Special Teams is about even as both teams have special kickers and neither team has a punt or kick return for a TD.  Georgia's Rodrigo Blankenship hit a 55 yarder before the half which changed momentum int he game against Oklahoma.  They also blocked a kick to win the game, but Alabama has been known to win games with special teams in this type of game.

Georgia's offense vs. Alabama's defense is a big key.  Alabama got healthy, but lost another linebacker in their game against Clemson.  Alabama has not been as dominant vs. good rushing teams as they have in the past shutting down just 1 of the 5 top 45 rushing offenses they faced.  On average allowing 139 yards per game in those 5 games and 7 TD's.  Meanwhile Georgia's rushing attack has faced 6 top 45 run defenses and only 1 team in a road game at Auburn shut them down, but their coaching staff made adjustments and they rushed for over 200 in the SEC Championship.

Georgia's Jake Fromm is the key here as they can make all the throws that Jarret Stidham did when Auburn beat Alabama with their balance attack.  For a true freshman he's been extremely impressive and even getting the confidence of coaches to change the play at the line of scrimmage.  If you want to beat Alabama you better have a QB and Georgia certainly does.  You can get more info on the Georgia offense vs. Alabama defense in this week's podcast where I gave Georgia in overall slight advantage.

Alabama's offense vs. Georgia's defense is another advantage in my opinion for Georgia.  On paper Georgia ranked 32nd in stopping the run, but they faced 7 teams in the top 25 in rushing offense.  They faced some weird ones too with Georgia Tech's triple option, Oklahoma's #1 offense and RPO spread offense, along with facing Auburn's offense twice.  They shut down 4 of the 8 rushing offenses in the top 45 that they faced.  Their run defense is much better than it looked a week ago and a big reason why we have them as dogs.  Alabama doesn't have a 1,000 yard rusher this year.  Meanwhile they still ranked #10 in rushing offense from a ypc perspective and #15 in QB Rating.  

We saw Clemson really shut down Alabama's offense and we saw Auburn do the same thing in the Iron Bowl.  This Georgia defense is really similar in a lot of ways and can do the same thing.  Alabama's Jalen Hurts has faced a weaker schedule having faced on average a 66.8 run defense.  Georgia has the #6 pass defense to go along with that, and we have seen Hurts struggle to get much going.  He's faced 6 top 50 passing defenses.  He eclipsed 200 yards 1x, and was held under 121 passing yards 3 times.  He ranked 96th in sack % because he'd rather take a sack than throw an interception.  I see Georgia getting after him here they held Brandon Wimbush a mobile QB from Notre Dame to 1 yard on 16 carries.

Georgia may not have as impressive numbers here or there, but they have gotten better as the season progressed especially on offense.  They are coming off a game where they made a major come back, and have a ton of confidence in offense and now they get to face a one dimensional offense.  Alabama certainly has the receivers, but Georgia is going to make Hurts beat them and his numbers despite not turning the ball over against the top 50 passing defenses he's faced have not been impressive.  Either I think this game comes down to a field goal these two teams really are even, but Georgia is the more complete team with balance on offense and they have faced a tougher schedule. 

Alabama -3 4.4% play 

As a Clemson fan I hate making this play.  I think they are really disrepsected being an under dog here, but I think a deeper look at the match-up and it's rightfully so.  Not only did Clemson get in a tough situation with the location of this bowl game being in New Orleans which is a major advantage to Alabama, but they have to go up against a highly motivated Alabama team that was almost left out of this playoff that lost to Clemson in last year's national championship.  Nick Saban 10-2 in revenge games.  Although I don't buy into the revenge angle a lot these days I think it certainly applies here. 

Clemson, was lucky to win last year's bowl game, and lucky to cover the year before.  It took their best two performances of the year offensively in those games and it was Deshaun Watson show.  Mike Williams, at WR also was a key aspect of the win last year and they just don't have that guy they can throw it up to down the field.  Kelly Bryant has been fantastic, but he's not as much of a thrower as Watson.  Look out for Hunter Renfrow to be taken out of this game as he killed Alabama the last two years.  Clemson played exceptional in their step up games against Auburn, Louisville, Virginia Tech, and Miami, but 3 of the 4 teams that have played so far lost their bowl games.  Virginia lost by 10, Miami lost by 10, and Louisville lost by 4 as a 7 point favorite over an SEC team.  Last year it was evident that the ACC was ahead of the SEC.  While I still think that's the case front top to bottom.  I think the top tier SEC schools are a bit better than the top ACC schools.  These two faced two common opponents in Florida State & Auburn.  When you look at it Alabama faced them at the worse times.  They faced Auburn on the road completely healthy while Alabama was missing 3 starting LB's.  They faced Florida State in week 2 when they were ranked #2 in the country and still had their QB.  Clemson faced Florida State at home with a freshman QB, and their season goals already lost.  They faced Auburn on what I believe was neutral turf and before Auburn really found their offensive identity.

Yes, Clemson defense statistically was as good as Alabama, with a better pass rush and slightly more exploitable in run defense.  I just don't see it being a good match-up for Clemson here against Alabama and their very good rushing offense which ranked #1 this year.  Brett Venables also had issues stopping Alabama's offense the last two years with two different coordinators as Alabama scored 45 and 31 points.  Alabama with more than 2 weeks to prepare has been very good offensively since 2012 in 11 games they averaged 35 points per game.  These were all games against P5 opponents either in the playoff game or first game of the season.  Alabama the last three years played Florida State, Wisconsin and USC to open the year.

The health of Alabama, the extra time to prepare, no Deshaun Watson, location favoring Alabama, the revenge factor are all reasons why I like Alabama to come away with the win and cover.  

Oklahoma +125 5.5% POD

The SEC has not played well in bowl games thus far going 1-3 while the Big 12 as I mentioned might just be the best conference this year.  They have gone 5-2 in bowl games.  The SEC is still getting too much credit for being the SEC, and there is a thought out there that Oklahoma just doesn't play defense which just is not true.  Oklahoma went on the road and faced Ohio State who dominated them a year ago and held that powerful rushing attack to 167 yards.  That was less than Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin who all gave up over 200 yards to Ohio State.  In this game I would not be shocked to see Oklahoma do a good job against the run.  They are simply capable and the game plan will be to force Georgia into third and longs and force Jake Fromm the freshman to beat them.

That's another big reason why I like Oklahoma here to win this game.  They are an experienced group of guys with a senior QB that won't let his team lose.  They are 4-0 SU & ATS vs. SEC teams the last two years beating Alabama and Auburn recently.  This group has been in the playoff and felt the pain of losing to Clemson.  Georgia, while they are talented are not as talented in the pass rush as the 2015 Clemson team that beat them.  Georgia is 85th in adjusted sack rate while Clemson was 13th in 2015.  This Oklahoma offensive line is also much better and if you can go on the road and defeat an Ohio State defensive line and do it in dominating fashion than I am sold.  Oklahoma was +140 yards in that game against Ohio State the 26th ranked adjusted sack rate team.  Oklahoma also beat Oklahoma State on the road and beat TCU twice all three of these teams were in the college football playoff mix and won their bowl games.  Meanwhile Georgia's biggest win against Notre Dame on the road by only 1 point.  Notre Dame struggled and got beat big in each of their step up games with Miami, and Stanford were lucky to beat Michigan State and USC (banged up).

Oklahoma faced 9 bowl teams and were +199 yards per game.  Georgia's defense is great, but they rarely faced an opponent that could move the ball running and throwing like they do here.  The closest match-up would probably be Auburn and when Auburn was healthy they put up 40 points on this Georgia defense.  Auburn was missing their most valuable player in the Championship game in Kerryon Johnson who was clearly not 100%.  This defense also gave up 28 points to Missouri at home.  Missouri is a nice offense with a little balance and a decent QB, but we saw Missouri struggle offensively against Texas in the bowl game, and Auburn in their own building.  Georgia in my opinion really has not been tested defensively like they will be in this game.

Michigan -7.5 -1.05

This game reminds me a lot of Michigan's bowl game 2 years ago against a Florida team that had a very bad offense and good defense.  Michigan defeated them 41-7 in that bowl game.  I think the extra time off helps Michigan more than it does South Carolina, and I think Michigan is looking to make a statement.  Brandon Peters will start at QB which makes a world of difference as he is more mobile and has a better arm.  He is also trying to make a statement that this is his team and that incoming transfer Shea Patterson is not just going to take over.  I think it starts with Michigan's defense that should dominate allowing for the offense to be on the field a ton.

Michigan's defense has been dominant and is #3 in the country.  South Carolina lacks any difference makers on offense after they lost Deebo Samuel vs. Kentucky for the season.  They faced two similar top 10 defenses in their last 4 games of the season and put up 10 points against Georgia, and 10 points against Clemson.  Michigan is the same type of defense with extra time to prepare against a South Carolina team that fired their offensive coordinator.  We have seen how teams have done playing without their coordinators this bowl season. 

I think we are getting line value here as South Carolina were out gained on the season by 35 yards per game, but managed to go 8-4.  They went 0-4 against teams that were able to run the ball which is exactly what I think Michigan can do in this game.  With Peters at QB Michigan's running game was as good as it was all year rushing for over 230 yards per game and 12 TD's in 4 games.  They were even moving the ball on Wisconsin on the road early in that game before Peters was knocked out with a concussion.  When Peters took over it was evident the difference between the two and the offense.  South Carolina does have the #37 run defense, but they have faced an average opponent ranking 70.1 in rushing yards per carry in their wins while their losses have come against #48.5.  Michigan is #50 having faced a very challenging schedule of 5 TOP 25 run defenses.  South Carolina not in that boat and when Michigan did not face a top 25 run defense they won on average by 18.5 points per game.    

Wisconsin / Miami Under 45 3.3% play

These are two of the slower paced teams in the country at 95th, and 100th and both will lean on the run slowing this game down even more in my opinion.  Both teams are led by their defenses who have stepped up in big games.  Even Miami who gave up 38 points to Clemson held that offense to 331 yards.  

You have Miami with their young QB Rosier who down the stretch struggled a bit particularly in the last two games going up against the #1 passing defense which has 17 interceptions.  I expect a very conservative approach from the Miami Hurricanes who need to establish the run in this game.  Wisconsin really doesn't give up much and only two teams scored in the 20's against them.  An Ohio State team and Northwestern who scored 2 late TD's with their no huddle approach.

For Wisconsin they run the ball 65% of the time and they too really don't want to allow Alex Hornibrook to throw an interception to this defense that has 16 on the year.  Look for Wisconsin to do what Wisconsin does and try to use their size and strength to defeat the speed of Miami's defense.  I expect Miami's #21 ranked run defense to be able to get plenty of stops in this game. 

Washington +115 3% play

Looking at these two teams it's like looking in a mirror there are so many similarities.  Both were considered as the #4 playoff team last year and Washington got in over Penn State.  Both teams this year have faced similar competition with Washington facing probably more balanced competition from an offensive and defensive perspective (better offenses in PAC12).  Both teams lost their offensive coordinators to other programs, both teams don't turn the ball over, both teams have outstanding special teams units, with all time greats returning kicks in Barkley for Penn State, and Pettis for Washington.  Both teams have top 25 offenses and defenses from a yards per play perspective.

However, looking at how this season has gone Penn State's wins have come against teams with an average opponent rank of 100.1 in yards per play.  They faced only two teams in the top 75 and gave up 44 and 39 points along with 497.5 yards in those games.  Granted one was a road game against Ohio State where they looked outmatch despite the 1 point loss they were lucky to have been in that position because of special teams and turnovers forced. 

The difference in this game is going to be who can run the ball better in my opinion and the answer to that question is Washington.  Penn State averaged 5.19 ypc in their wins and 2.79 in their losses.  Washington is the #2 defense in the nation at stopping the run and they are also very good against the pass.  Penn State's run defense is a bit over rated ranking in at 33rd considering they have faced an average opponent ranking 90th compared to Washington's #2 ranking vs. an average opponent ranking 71.8.

Chris Peterson is also one of the best coaches in the nation serving up a game plan and executing especially with extra time to prepare.  I think of James Franklin as more of a motivator than an X's and O's guy.  If you recall this guy was on the hot seat just last year before Joe Moorhead arrived and fixed the offense.  Now Moorhead is gone taking the Miss State job. 

Iowa State +165 4% play 

This is great value right now on a Big 12 team that actually plays defense.  Iowa State held 9 of its 10 conference foes to 10 or more points below their season average.  They are the only team to defeat Oklahoma, and they also had a quality win over TCU.  They have all the right things to pull this "upset."

Memphis is a high tiered offense that can run and pass, and they are playing this game at home, but Iowa State fans travel really well.  As good as Memphis offense has been #3 in yards per play, 6th ypc, 5th in QB rating they have not faced many good defenses.  They faced just 1 team in the top 70 that can stop the run and Iowa State ranks 27th.  I think they'll have issues when they can't get the running game going here.  The 3 times they struggled in the running game they lost to UCF, and only beat Navy & Houston by 3 and 4 points.

Memphis defense is not good at all ranking 86th in yards per play allowed, but they haven't been good against the run 80th, or pass 82nd.  They have size issues up front that Iowa State will gladly take advantage of, and they don't have as much depth because of injuries.  Iowa State has the opportunity to run the ball with their RB David Montgomery, a very under rated running back.  When they face a team that's not in the top 40 in run defense they are actually averaging 33.5 points per game.  I think they eclipse that mark here, and with QB Kyle Kempt throwing the ball to Allen Lazard who is absolutely unguardable they should be able to control the flow of this game.  Memphis defense relies heavily on forcing turnovers with their speed with 30, but Iowa State just doesn't cough the ball up as they haven't lost a fumble all year long and only have 11 TO's.

On the flip side this is the best defense that Memphis will face all year.  They lost the last two bowl games by 20 and 21 points and I wouldn't be shocked to see a similar result with the way Matt Campbell has Iowa State playing.  This team hasn't been to a bowl game since 2012, but they aren't satisfied until they come out with a win.  Campbell on his team stated, "This group is fired up, and they're excited to be together one more time... they love being together, and they really love the process it takes to get better.  We now know who, where, and when, and we can put our focus on that.  They're really fired up."  Feel good about Iowa State pulling the upset here. 

USC / Ohio State Over 64.5 3.3% PLAY / USC +8 2.2% PLAY

Both teams rank in the top 15 in explosive plays and both offensive strengths are their opponents defensive weaknesses.  USC gave up 49 and 35 points the two times they faced a good running team who also had a good running QB.  Ohio State has averaged 53 points per game when they don't face a top 50 run defense.  Ohio State has faced 4 passing teams ranked in the top 50 in QB rating and gave up on average 36.6 points per game, but it could have been more especially against Oklahoma.  Ohio State shut out in their bowl game last year, but scored 44, 42, 42, and 35 in their previous 4 post season games, and USC scored 52 and gave up 49 in last year's Rose Bowl against Big Ten Penn State.

On the spread side this is just too much value to pass up with the Trojans against Ohio State. This line is inflated based on what Ohio State did last year in their bowl game, and based on Urban Meyer's success of going 10-3 SU& ATS in bowl games.  I understand the line and many people will point to USC's thrashing against Notre Dame who run a similar one dimensional run first offense, but USC was crippled along the defensive line with injuries.  They had 20 guys who missed the game with injuries.  They got healthier down the stretch and even managed to hold Stanford's rushing to 151 yards in the PAC 12 Championship.  It's easier to scheme and game plan against the run and make a QB beat you.  For USC's offense they have that QB that will play at the next level and he can carry this team to win the game or even a back door cover.

Ohio State has faced 4 top 50 passing teams and they are 2-2 losing by 31 and 15 points.  Allowing an average of 36 points per game.  Their two wins came against Wisconsin by 6 and Penn State by 1.  If Sam Darnold doesn't turn the ball over they should stay in this game.  Darnold 17-4 TD/INT ratio down the stretch. Bake Mayfield shredded this secondary and they won at Ohio State by 15, but it could have been a lot worse.

The other thing to point out is how bad Ohio State's special teams has been especially in the kickoff return defense and USC has dynamic players back there and rank #8 in KO return efficiency.

USC / Ohio State Over 64.5 3.3% PLAY / USC +8 2.2% PLAY

Both teams rank in the top 15 in explosive plays and both offensive strengths are their opponents defensive weaknesses.  USC gave up 49 and 35 points the two times they faced a good running team who also had a good running QB.  Ohio State has averaged 53 points per game when they don't face a top 50 run defense.  Ohio State has faced 4 passing teams ranked in the top 50 in QB rating and gave up on average 36.6 points per game, but it could have been more especially against Oklahoma.  Ohio State shut out in their bowl game last year, but scored 44, 42, 42, and 35 in their previous 4 post season games, and USC scored 52 and gave up 49 in last year's Rose Bowl against Big Ten Penn State.

On the spread side this is just too much value to pass up with the Trojans against Ohio State. This line is inflated based on what Ohio State did last year in their bowl game, and based on Urban Meyer's success of going 10-3 SU& ATS in bowl games.  I understand the line and many people will point to USC's thrashing against Notre Dame who run a similar one dimensional run first offense, but USC was crippled along the defensive line with injuries.  They had 20 guys who missed the game with injuries.  They got healthier down the stretch and even managed to hold Stanford's rushing to 151 yards in the PAC 12 Championship.  It's easier to scheme and game plan against the run and make a QB beat you.  For USC's offense they have that QB that will play at the next level and he can carry this team to win the game or even a back door cover.

Ohio State has faced 4 top 50 passing teams and they are 2-2 losing by 31 and 15 points.  Allowing an average of 36 points per game.  Their two wins came against Wisconsin by 6 and Penn State by 1.  If Sam Darnold doesn't turn the ball over they should stay in this game.  Darnold 17-4 TD/INT ratio down the stretch. Bake Mayfield shredded this secondary and they won at Ohio State by 15, but it could have been a lot worse.

The other thing to point out is how bad Ohio State's special teams has been especially in the kickoff return defense and USC has dynamic players back there and rank #8 in KO return efficiency.

Arizona State +7 3.3% play 

We have a unique situation with a coach being fired and sticking around for the bowl game to coach while the new coach is out recruiting.  Originally I thought that might be a nightmare of a situation, but the more I am reading the more I am understanding that Todd Graham is respected around this program.  He has recruited all of these players who are a tight nit group and want to send their coach out with a win.  I think it also helps that Graham has not had to worry about recruiting the last few weeks like most of these bowl coaches.

This game is being played in Texas and typically the PAC12 enjoys a big crowd edge against the ACC.  They have dominated the ACC since 2010 going 18-2 which really surprises me.  As many of you know I have been high on the ACC even calling them the best conference dating back to last year.  I don't think they are the best this year, and I think there are some opportunities to fade teams out of the ACC in this bowl season.

Looking at what these two teams bring to the table you have to like Arizona State as over a TD under dog.  They have faced the better schedule and even have gone 5-2-1 ATS as a dog with 4 outright upsets this year.  They beat teams like Oregon, Washington, Utah and Arizona while NC State beat Louisville, BC And Marshall not much to show for an 8-4 season that could have been much better.  Todd Graham has also been good in bowl games.

In terms of the match-up we have Arizona State's #29 passing attack facing the #43 passing defense, but they are without Bradley Chubb seen working on speed drills in practice while the rest of the team took their normal reps.  As I expect he is now listed as doubtful for this game.  Chubb is a monster and a one man wrecking crew, but they'll be without him and that is bad news for NC State's defense whose weakness is the green secondary.  Ranking #43 is great, but they faced many teams without a pulse at QB.  An average opponent ranking #73.  Arizona State's offense did that against some very good defenses as well ranking on average 58.9.  Just in their wins they have proven they could beat good defenses, Oregon, Washington, Utah to name a few.  I look for receiver N'Keal Harry & Kyle Williams to have a big days.

NC State, I have bet on a few times this year and I think like many folks we had higher hopes for them.  They have a ton of talent, but they just beat themselves.  THey are one of the worst special teams units in the country at #104 while Arizona State is #32.  Their FG kicker is 9-19 on field goals and Arizona State's red zone offense and defense have an edge here.  You'd also expect Arizona State to have some turnovers, but they have lost only 11 all season which is the lowest since Graham has been here.  I was tempted to take this game on the money line, but NC State does have talent here with Finley at QB and Hines & Samuels.  I can see a field goal game going either way. 

Wake Forest -3 5.5% POD

This game is being played at BOA in Charlotte which gives Wake Forest a home field advantage.  I also think there is a lot of value here with Wake Forest who had better results and faced a tougher schedule.  On average they ranked #41.2 facing an average opponent ranking #56.1, while Texas A&m ranked #71 facing an average opponent ranking #59.7.  A&M went 1-4 against 5 bowl teams while Wake Forest went 4-5 against 9 bowl teams.  The ACC also has gone 2-1 SU & ATS in bowl play so far compared to a weak showing for the SEC at 0-1 with Missouri losing to Big 12 Texas as favorites.  Even dating back to last year it has been evident that the ACC is better than the SEC.

Another edge besides strength of schedule is the fact that Texas A&M has an inexperienced guy calling the shots in Jeff Banks.  Banks is the special teams coach as Kevin Sumlin was let go and Jimbo Fisher took over.  This has not worked out well thus far in bowl games.  Banks special teams unit was a strength of this team ranking #40, but I think that has everything to do with the talents of Christian Kirk.  For Wake Forest, Dave Clawson has won everywhere he's gone.  He came in and fixed the biggest issue for Wake Forest was their size on the offensive line and has turned this offense around starting in 2015 when he started 4 freshman on the OL.  This year this year they allowed 19 fewer sacks and averaged a yard more per carry and QB John Wolford also saw the benefit as he tossed 25 TD's and 6 INT's for the #12 ranked QB rating in the nation.  That rating is legit too as Wake Forest faced off against a ton of top passing defenses with an average rank of #43.1.

Wake Forest goes up against Texas A&M's #83 pass defense.  Wake Forest faced three teams not in the top 50 in pass defense and they scored 43.3 points per game.  A&M's pass defense is a bit misleading I'll admit at #83 hailing from the tough SEC, but the SEC was down this year.  A&M faced 5 teams in the top 50 in QB rating and they went 1-4.  They beat an Ole Miss team that was starting a backup QB after Shea Patterson was lost for the season.  In those 4 games they allowed 36.6 points per game.  A&M has a nice pass rush, but Wake Forest was only sacked 17 times on the year.

A&M's offense was hit or miss this year, and they'll struggle in my opinion facing the #25 passing defense.  Wake Forest plays an aggressive style and even their run defense is better than the stats state as they faced an average rushing rank of #40.4.  A&M ranks 83rd in rushing ypc after facing an average rushing defense 68.2, again the SEC is over rated!  A&M generally took care of the ball with only 16 TO's and have a +4 margin, but they had 8 TO's in 3 games which were the only 3 times they faced a top 25 pass defense which Wake Forest is.  Wake Forest however +7 in TO margin only turned it over 11 times and 5 of those came in games against top 30 pass defenses.  They only turned the ball over 1 time in road games at Clemson and Notre Dame which is extremely impressive. 

Michigan State -1.5 5.5% POD

This Michigan State team has a huge chip on their shoulder as they feel slighted for not being picked for the New Year's Day Outback Bowl.  instead their rival who they beat, Michigan was chosen.  I think they will give it their best to win and dominate this game and I think they can over a Washington team that has plenty of holes.

First of all we need to bring up Washington State's game last year against  Minnesota team that had 10 guys suspended or more yet they were unable to win losing 12-17.  The previous two years they played in 3 point games against Rutgers so Washington has struggled in the Leach era against the Big Ten.  Leach is actually only 4-8 ATS in bowl games and goes up against Dantonio who is a very good coach and will have his team ready for this game.

Aside from the motivation I like the match-up here for Michigan State who rank #10 in pass defense and won't have to worry much about a rushing offense as Washington State ranks 129th in the nation in rushing offense.  Luke Falk, QB at Washington State will have his hands full here against a press man to man coverage.  He'll also be missing his top 2 WR for this game.

For MIchigan State's offense it's all about QB Brian Lewerke.  I think Lewerke was a bit banged up at the end of the year, but he is a guy who threw for over 885 yards in two games against very good defenses in Northwestern #26th in YPP allowed and Penn State 22nd in YPP allowed.  He really only had one bad game against Ohio State on the road in a very bad spot.  I would not be surprised to see Michigan State come out throwing against Washington State who will be without their best defensive player in Hercules Maat'fa for the first half for a suspension.  They can then use their size late to wear down Washington State's smaller defensive front.  Washington State #58 in rushing ypc defense.  Michigan State's 3 losses came against very good run defenses ranking #19 on average.  When they can run the ball they typically win and Washington showed it in the Apple Cup that Washington State struggles against a well coached physical style opponent.

There are other factors I like here as Washington State has the #115 special teams and have turned the ball over 29 times this season.  I thought Washington State's defense carried them this year and should keep this game close, but Falk will have some mistakes and they will continue to struggle in these type of match-ups. 

Stanford +140 3.5% play 

I like Stanford in this spot with David Shaw in the under dog role he is 11-3-1 ATS lifetime with 10 outright upsets.  Stanford has also played the tougher schedule according to S&P, and they played their best football down the stretch.  Even their defense picked up down the stretch and I think they match up well here in this game against TCU who is a border line top 50 offense with Kenny Hill who I feel is one of the more over rated players in college football.  TCU faced an average passing defense ranked 93.4.  Most athletic QB's would be able to do well against those type of defenses, but here he faces a Stanford defense that has forced 25 TO's, and a Stanford team that is +15 in TO Margin.  Stanford does not have their typical defense, but I could argue they are still better than TCU.

TCU's defense was fantastic this year, but against top 50 offenses they were not the same team.  They only faced 5 of those such teams and in each of those games they gave up a ton of yards and points.  On average it was 32.8 ppg and 492.8 yards per game.  Here they face Stanford ranking #16 in yards per play.  They have the best RB in the country in Bryce Love who will play in this game.  Love rushed for 166 yards against Washington the #2 rushing defense to put things in perspective.  While TCU faced just 1 team in the top 30 in rushing yards per cary (Oklahoma) who blasted them for 200+ yards in each game.  

I mentioned I thought Stanford's defense might be better.  They faced 7 top 50 defenses.  On average they gave up 402 yards and 24 points per game.  They really have better stats when not facing the top 2 QB's in the nation who might go #1 and #2 in the NFL draft.  Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen the only QB's to put up over 500 yards of offense and 30+ points on this defense.  Kenny Hill had a nice season, but he's not a pro prospect.  There are a ton of throws that he can't make.  Stanford will game plan for that and they should be able to contain his running ability as Notre Dame's Brandon Wimbush was held ot 61 yards on 17 carries for a 3.59 ypc. 

KJ Costello the QB for Stanford took over and down the stretch he played extremely well with a 7 TD to 1 INT ratio over the last 4 games.  The last 4 games came against 3 top 40 passing defenses.  TCU ranks #57, although that ranking is a bit better given the fact that they faced Baker Mayfield 2x, and Mason Rudolph I still feel like Costello and this offense will continue the trend and put up 30 points on TCU.  Oh by the way I have great respect for Gary Paterson, but 2-6 ATS in his last 8 bowl games.  Shaw just maybe the better coach here. 

Oklahoma State -5.5 3.3% play

This is a bit of a square play for me, but I have said all along that I thought the Big 12 was a bit better than the ACC from top to bottom. This to me is a bad match-up for Virginia Tech. Oklahoma State is a balanced offense that probably would have better numbers had their offensive line not been banged up in the middle of the season. Virginia Tech leans on their defense more than the offense, but they only topped 24 points once all season against a power 5 opponent. I don't see how that would get it done against Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State outgained their power 5 opponents by 156.3 yards per game and 8 went to bowl games. Virginia Tech outgained their p5 opponents by 29.8 yards per game while 6 are in bowl games. Both teams faced a similar strength of schedule. Virginia Tech faced around a 72.1 opponent while Oklahoma State faced 73. Virginia Tech ranked on average 44.8th in the country in key stats, while Oklahoma State ranked 29.3. Both teams beat up on the weaker teams, but a key look in at who they lost to reveals Oklahoma State is the play for me. Virginia Techs' #13 passing defense only faced 1 top 60 passing offense in West Virginia. West Virginia threw all over Va Tech and outgained them by 123 yards, but lost the game. Mainly, because they turned the ball over and they ranked 100th against the run and 75th running the ball. Oklahoma State ranks #3 in passing, #38 in rushing ypc, and their run defense ranks 17th. They are a more complete football team, and in Virginia Tech's games against top 50 rushing teams they went 1-3 on the year. Those 4 opponents did not have a passing attack even remotely close ranking 61st, 114, 116, and 71st. Oklahoma State lost 3 games and each one came against a top 50 offense. Virginia Tech ranked #84 in yards per play offense. Their QB Josh Jackson is the key, but Oklahoma State has had success against mobile QB's this year holding Kenny Hill to just 15 yards. Jackson has to be able to run the ball for them to stay in this game, and I just don't see it happening. Lastly against common opponents Oklahoma State outgained Pitt & West Virginia in 2 road games by a total of 439 yards while Virginia Tech at home and neutral field were outgained by 114 yards. Virginia Tech's losses came by 14, 18 and 6 points to Georgia Tech. Last year in Fuente's first year they lost 4 games by 21, 14, 10, and 7. So in 7 loses for Fuente they have lost on average by 12.8 points per game and I can see a similar result here with Oklahoma State winning by 10-14 points.

Virginia -1 4.4% play

I really like this match-up for Virginia in their first bowl appearance in 6 years.  If this wasn’t being played on Navy’s home field this might be a max POD.  Nonetheless, Virginia is about 150 miles away and should still have plenty of fans in the stands to balance it out a bit.  The ACC went 3-0 vs. the AAC this year outscoring them by 30 points.  Wake Forest (ACC) also beat Temple (AAC) as double digit dogs last year in the Military Bowl.

Navy has had an uncharacteristic year and they lost again to Army to end the year.  You always expect the service academies to play well in the bowl games in terms of effort, but I think Virginia just may want this a little more.  I also will make the statement again having TV cameras around your program constantly is not a good thing.  Navy had Showtime following them around and I don’t think it was a coincidence that it was their worst season in some time.

Virginia has the defense to stop the option and there is no threat of a pass game with this Navy team.  Whether it’s Malcolm Perry who can’t throw past 10 yards or Zach Abey who locks into one guy the Virginia defense knows they have to stop the option.  Bronco Mendenhall has always been great at defending the option 8-2 SU & ATS dating back to his days at BYU.  They also beat Georgia Tech this year as dogs and held them to 220 rushing yards 78 came on 1 run, while Georgia Tech had to pass a season high 24 times.  Only two teams held Georgia Tech to less running yards, Clemson & Georgia, both playing in the college football playoff.  LB Micah Kiser will be the difference he had 18 tackles in the game against Georgia Tech.  Quin Blanding at S is another NFL future player along Chris Peace at LB this defense has the experience and knowledge to shut Navy down enough to win this game.

Navy’s defense is going to have issues here.  Their secondary ranks 120 th in opposing QB rating.  Virginia’s Kurt Benkert has thrown 17 TD’s and 4 INT’s in wins and 8/6 in losses.  He’s had a tough schedule facing 5 Top 30 passing defenses this 

Texas +130 3% play

Tom Herman as an under dog is a profitable bet going 9-1 ATS with 6 outright upsets.  We backed him and Texas on several occasions this year in this very role.  Tom Herman is building a winning program here at Texas, and the defense was the story in 2017 ranking 5th vs. the run, and 51st vs. the pass in a very talented QB conference in the Big 12.  Texas went up against 4 QB’s that will be playing in the NFL next year.  Facing Baker Mayfield & Oklahoma they held them to 29 points, a season low.  Against Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State they held them to 10 points, a season low.  They nearly went on the road and beat Sam Darnold and USC in OT, almost a season low.  Finally, they held Will Grier, who will be in the NFL in 2019 to a season low 14 points.

Missouri was a red hot team to close the season, with 6 straight wins.  They probably would have liked to keep playing and not take a few weeks off.  The other thing is they faced opponents with a combined record of 27-55 throughout that 6 game win streak and not a single one of those teams got into a bowl game.  Their SEC opponents were against 3 teams who had just fired their coach or would fire their coach in Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas.  Missouri faced 4 teams with top 50 defenses and went 0-4 scoring an average of just 14.5 points per game.  I’m not sure how good Drew Lock is when he doesn’t have a running game either.  Meaning, I feel like Texas can first stop the run, and force turnovers when he’s in obvious passing downs.

Now, Texas can’t just show up they’ll have to play a sound game as they have injuries and guys sitting out for the NFL draft, but I think they have a coaching advantage and Missouri’s offensive coordinator Josh Heupel took the head coaching job at Central Florida.  We have seen team struggle without their usual head coaches in these bowl games already and I look for that trend to continue.  It’s also worth noting that Texas will have the home crowd edge with this game being played at the Houston Texans Stadium.

Purdue +142 5.5% POD

Coaching edge to Jeff Brohm here as Rich Rodriguez has a 2-8 ATS bowl record, but for some reason Arizona is favored probably because of Khalil Tate.  This offense reminds me of the offenses that Rodriguez had at Michigan with Denard Robinson which you can easily scheme for.  If you can stop the run you should win the game and perhaps even dominate.  The other thing to consider here is the fact that teams that rely heavily on a running QB like Arizona really struggle the more film that's available.  Look at what Louisville did down the stretch last year and then this year.

Speaking of Louisville, Purdue held them in check in their loss to open the season.  Lamar Jackson managed his team to only 146 yards.  Louisville has the #1 ranked rushing attack.  Overall Purdue ranks #26 vs. the run.  Arizona's wins have come against bad rushing defenses ranking on average 97.3.  While their 5 losses have come against an average run defense ranking #55.  They are also 0-5 when held under 250 yards rushing.  Purdue gave up 250+ rushing only once this season and it came against Wisconsin on the road and they still held Wisconsin to only 17 points.  Purdue is also solid ranking 46th in QB rating defense and their defense has very good veteran presence.  We also saw this team go on the road and face #7 YPP Offense in Missouri and beat them 35-3.

I've explained a bit how Purdue can shut down Arizona's offense, and I feel their offense will be able to put up points on Arizona's defense.  Jeff Brohm after all is an offensive minded coach, and with extra time to prepare I against a defense that is not very good against the pass or run and is under sized.  Purdue also wins games when their offense is involved.  I was impressed with their road win at Iowa down the stretch even though I called for it.  In their wins they average 4.79 ypc compared to 3.96 in losses, and their QB rating is 153 vs. 106.  Here they go up against Arizona's #86 yards per play defense.  That comes against a schedule where they faced an average offense ranking 70.1.  They ranked 81st vs. the run 87th vs. the pass, and are banged up in the front 7.  This is a game I see Purdue offense being able to move the ball in the air and on the ground.  Arizona's defense really relied on takeaways.  Purdue had just 16 on the season and 10 of those came in the first 5 games with only 6 over their last 7 games.  Arizona also turned the ball over 20 times and are more turnover prone.

Southern Miss +15 2.2%

How can Florida State be a 17 point favorite right now with that offense, an interim coach, and a thinning roster playing without their best defensive player Derwin James.  Many will point to their last game against LA Monroe to end the season as they won 42-10, but LA Monroe ranked 128th in YPP defense while Southern Miss ranks #31.

Let’s also talk about Conference USA who is 4-4 in the bowl games this year.  They are 1-4 on the year against ACC, but their weaker teams faced off.  Their 2 bowl teams MTSU & Marshall went 1-1.  Marshall lost to NC State by 17 points.  Southern Miss is better than Marshall, and NC State is better than Florida State having beaten them at Florida State.

Hard to gauge if Florida State is going to be interested.  I have no doubt they like the interim coach Odell Haggins, and the players will want to look good for Taggart, but how much effort is this coaching staff really putting in right now against Southern Miss who is much more excited to be here and should have the crowd edge here.

The keys to the game are whether or not Southern Miss can stop the run.  Florida State’s offensive line has not been very good and Southern Miss had 94 tackles for loss this year.  They rank #30 against the run and have beaten 5 teams with better rushing averages than Florida State.  Southern Miss also shut down the two power 5 teams they faced in the running game holding both Tennessee and Kentucky to under 3 yards per carry.  I think they can have similar success in this game.

For Southern Miss offense they rely heavily on big plays and the steady running game of veteran Ito Smith.  Florida State is definitely vulnerable against big plays especially without Derwin James as we saw last year.  I think FSU will stop Ito Smith, but could allow some TD’s on big plays that will allow Southern Miss to stay in this game.  Overall Florida State’s wins have come against very poor opponents with an overall average ranking of 75.7 when I average their ratings for (YPP O, YPP D, Rush YPC O&D, QB Rating O&D), and their losses came against an average 37.6.  Southern Miss is a balanced team ranking 38.8 and has strengths in the right areas to contend in what I figure would be a low scoring game.

Utah -6.5 2.2% play

Even though we are playing a premium to back Utah and Kyle Whittingham who is 10-1 in bowl games I am fine doing so.  Mainly, because it's just a bad match-up for West Virginia who is playing without their QB Will Grier.  There is a big drop off in my opinion with Chris Chugunov.  They will also be playing without two offensive line man and RB Justin Crawford who rushed for 1,061 yards this season.  The fact that Utah is also strong against the pass ranking #28 in opposing QB rating is a big deal.  They are strong along the defensive line, and right now that is West Virginia's weakness heading into the bowl game.  In fact in their 5 losses they faced an average pass defense ranked 53.6 while in their wins they faced an average pass defense ranked 108.5.

Utah should be able to score points and with a high total of 57 it makes me like the 6.5 even more.  Utah's offense is a bit under the radar as they haven't been healthy much of the season.  When they have Tyler Huntley at QB and Darren Carrington at WR they are a different team.  Both will play in this game.  Utah also has a fantastic shot at running for over 150 yards where they average 40 points per game this year in 5 games they achieved that.  Honestly, they probably would have more if Huntley was healthy more this year.  The only time they did not eclipse 30 points was in a road game at USC where they lost 27-28 by going for 2.  West Virginia's run defense is the big weakness.  They have given up 170 or more yards in 8 out of 11 games.  You bet Whittingham will take advantage of that weakness and Zack Moss can have a big day.  

Speaking of weaknesses.  West Virginia #109 in special teams going up against Utah who ranks #12.

Fresno/Houston U49 3.3% play

There is a lot to like about both of these teams.  I feel the spread is a bit more unpredictable because we don't know what we will get from Houston who has not made this trip before.  Fresno already made this trip, and to make matters worse for Houston they lost their offensive coordinator to Florida.  Their HC Applewhite will be making the calls, which is not a huge deal since he was an OC here, but he had to do it last year when Tom Herman left, and we saw how they struggled against San Diego State in last year's bowl.  If anything I think the offense will struggle because of these things.  

Fresno, had a spectacular season under Jeff Tedford and he took a team from 1-11 to 9-4 and they almost won the Mountain West Championship at Boise State.  Speaking of the Mountain West they have thoroughly impressed me.  Especially the good defenses that have played so far (Boise, Wyoming) both of those defenses rank 12th and 13th in yards per play allowed.  In their bowl games the defenses played amazing.  Boise State dominated Oregon holding them to 280 yards and only 14 offensive points in garbage time.  Oregon had 2 defensive TD's in that game to make it 28 total points.  Oregon, was a top notch offense averaging 52 points per game when they had their QB Justin Herbert which they did for that game.  Then Wyoming last night in a game that hurt my soul, because I had Central Michigan.  Even though CMU out gained Wyoming by almost 100 yards Wyoming dominated the game forcing 6 fumbles (recovering 4), and 4 interceptions for a total of 8 interceptions.  Holding them under 400 yards and to just 14 points.

Fresno State's defense is in that same category with Boise, SD State, Wyoming for defenses in the Mountain West.  They ranked 25th in yards per play allowed.  They switched from the 3-4 back to the 4-3 this year and it made a huge difference.  They faced Alabama & Washington to begin the year which is as tough of a schedule as you can have considering both games were on the road, but against the other top 50 offenses Fresno faced they allowed an average 16.8 points per game.

Houston's defense was equally as dominating facing 6 top 50 defenses they allowed an average of 24 points.  They gave up two big numbers 27 to Texas Tech and 42 to Memphis (in come back mode).  Texas Tech & Memphis are in the top 30 in pass play % and top 40 in plays per game.  That's really not Fresno State's gig any more.  They switched to a balanced approach with a pro style offense and ranked 111th in plays per game, and they were 80th in pass play % at 45%.  Take out those two games for Houston and their defense allowed just 19 points per game against the top 50 offenses.

Fresno offensively faced 6 total top 50 defenses on the year and averaged 18 points per game.  They will have their hands full again with Houston and Ed Oliver on the defensive line.  Although I think if there is one thing Fresno State can do it may be run the ball and control the game with their balance which will keep the clock ticking and the under in good shape.

Houston offensively is a running team, and typically with the QB.  They faced just two top 50 defenses however, and scored 24 and 28 points.  When looking at the two defenses they faced we are not that impressed.  Vs. Temple's #40 ypp defense which is a live ranking after Temples misleading bowl win, FIU lost their SR QB on the first series.  Temple really struggled this year against the run ranking 74th, and 52nd vs. the pass.  Their sacks really helped them make the list for top 50 YPP.  Fresno comes in better and more balanced ranking 34th vs. the run and 43rd vs. the pass.  Houston could struggle against this defense.  Against South Florida's #14 defense they scored 28, but were shutout in the first half.  They scored 2 TD's late to get the impressive win on the road over what I think to be an over rated South Florida defense.  A defense that really did not play many top offenses on the year.  The other thing to note about Houston is their QB D'Eriq King who took over the last 4 games did not face many top defenses.  He faced South Florida in his first game who had zero tape on him, and then he aced #130, #125, and #108 defenses none of which were top 75 in rushing ypc defense.  Fresno State has some tape on him and we have seen what happens to mobile QB's after a while in college teams catch up with scheme and are able to defend it.

Red Zone offense and defense also a key here.  Both defenses have played well, with both offenses struggling at times.  I think we could also see some field goals and 4th down stops.  With two top notch defensive lines who are very good at stuffing opponents both ranking top 40 in DL play.  Fresno #37, and Houston #17 in adjusted lines facing off against Houston's #88 OL, and Fresno's #40 OL.  All around I think we may see Fresno more interested in focused in this game.  I could see them putting up 28 points, but if that's the case it will be 28-10 or something along those lines.

Off to a very bad start this week.  Last night we lost the starting QB from FIU on the first series, and UAB looks like hot garbage, but confident a hot streak is on the horizon.

San Diego State -6.5 3.3% play 

As you are all aware I'm a big Army supporter, and had them the last two years on the money line as max plays over Navy.  This is just a bad match-up for Army in my opinion.  This is by far the most complete team they will have faced outside of Ohio State of course.  Rashaad Penny will play at RB for San Diego State, and he is a dynamic player.  When we look across the board San Diego State is top 50 in YPP offense, defense,  rushing ypc offense and defense, and QB rating offense and defense.  They come in top 30 for 4 of those 6 categories.  Compare that with Army who is in the top 100 in ypp offense and rushing ypc.  San Diego State even has the edge in special teams and TO margin.

We know Army has to run the ball to win games.  They'll go up against a San Diego State defense ranked 22nd against the run.  They are also used to seeing the option each year facing Air Force, and Rocky Long for years has had a lot of success defending the option.  To beat San Diego State you must have a QB, in their two losses they faced an average opponent QB rating of 39, Army ranks 130.  You also must have a good defense particularly against the run.  Army ranks 102nd in ypp defense, and 108th vs. the run.  Army can defend the option but against a pro style offense like this with the threat of the QB and speed they will struggle and give up some points like they did against North Texas in their 49-42 loss to close the year before the Army/Navy game.  In San Diego State's 2 losses vs. Fresno & Boise State they both had very good defenses ranking 13th and 25th in yards per play allowed and 15th and 34th vs. the run.  San Diego State also struggled and should have lost against Northern Illinois earlier in the year who also had a top defense.

Texas Tech +115 3% play 

There is a big difference in strength of schedules here, and the Big 12 has dominated the AAC this year going 5-0 and winning on average by 27.2 points per game.  Texas Tech actually defeated AAC Houston earlier in this year on the road while South Florida lost to them at home.  I think there is certainly value here with Texas Tech who played a more difficult schedule by far.  They faced 6 TOP 50 offenses, and just 1 offense in the bottom 3.  South Florida faced 2 top 50 offenses.  South Florida faced just 2 top 50 defenses, while Texas Tech faced 5.

South Florida faced two top 50 offenses and lost both game.  That fits the big here with Texas Tech ranking 38th in yards per play offense.  They also have the QB play as they rank 25th in QB rating.  Again, the only two times South Florida played a capable passing attack they lost both games.  I also think Texas Tech's defense can step up here especially against the run where they rank 63rd in yards per carry.  

Central Michigan +3.5 5.5% POD

This game is at elevation in Idaho which favors Wyoming who is used to playing in it, but in a match-up like this where the defenses should dominate I don't anticipate elevation playing too big of a factor, but we could have snow. The winds won't be too crazy so I don't anticipate the offenses being impacted too much. When we look at Wyoming they are getting too much credit here being favored. Josh Allen, the QB many NFL teams are interested in will be playing and I think that has a lot to do with the 3-3.5 point move, but I don't' agree with it. If you are a top 5 NFL QB draft pick you make the players around you better. Allen really has not done that, and part of it is how bad his offensive line has been ranking 124th in adjusted line yards. He's gotten no help from the running game either ranking 121st in ypc, while his QB rating is good for 104th. Central Michigan on the other hand has been in this role all year long. Favored in just 4 games they were able to win 8 and one could argue they were the best team out of the MAC. CMU has beaten up on poor offenses. Their 8 wins have come against an average offensive opponent ranking 109th in YPP and again Wyoming comes into this game ranking 124th so it fits what they have done all year. Their 4 losses have come against an average offense ranking 45.3 and as I mentioned that just isn't Wyoming. It's not as if Wyoming's offense has struggled because of strength of schedule. Their offense has faced an average defense ranking 75.4. Their wins have come against the bad defenses with an average rank of 103rd while their losses have come against an average defense ranking 42.2. Well, Central Michigan ranks 22nd in yards per play defense. When looking at Wyoming we know they have a very good defense. Ranking 12th in yards per play allowed while facing an average offense ranking 75.6. I looked deeper at what type of teams they struggled against. It was against teams with good QB play. Shane Morris from CMU is a good QB as the Chippewas ranked 54th in QB rating against an average opponent of 66.2 on defense which is a strong schedule. Wyoming against top 60 passing offenses went 1-4, and their 1 win came against a team that was not good defensively ranking 107th in yards per play defense. Central Michigan ranks 22nd. Meanwhile Central Michigan only went 2-3 against top 60 passing defenses. However their 3 losses came against teams who could move the ball ranking 54th, 20th, and 6th in yards per play, Wyoming ranks 124th. This recent line move offers tremendous value. I don't often like taking a team after finishing the season strong heading into a bowl with the long time off they lose their momentum. However, I like what I have seen many times form Central Michigan. I think they are the better team, and I could argue they faced a stronger schedule. They have won in situations against similar Wyoming teams more often than Wyoming has won against Central Michigan teams.

UAB +220 4% PLAY

The Sun Belt the last two years has gone 4-0 against the MAC.  Frank Solich in bowl games for Ohio has not done a good job going 2-8 dating back to his days at Nebraska.  They have actually lost their last two years in bowl games against the Sun Belt, but are 7 point favorites here?  UAB’s Bill Clark has done an amazing job for a team that wasn’t around the last two years and was up for coach of the year honors.

The idea that UAB faced a weaker schedule doesn’t mean a lot to me here.  UAB played up to their competition while Ohio seemed to play down.  When looking at the average opponent rank in their wins they stepped up their play against their better opponents.  For example they faced an average YPP defense of 75.1.  Their wins came against an average 64.3 and their losses vs. 94.  For Ohio the opposite was true.  They faced an average opponent defense ranking 71.7.  Their wins were against teams that didn’t play defense with an average rank of 81.  Their losses came against defenses ranking 55.5 on average.  UAB plays defense ranking 48th in YPP and that was better than Ohio’s 57th rank.

The big key is the running games and running defense as both teams will run the ball 60% +.  On paper Ohio has the edge as they rank they are 10th in rushing yards per carry, and 28th in rushing yards per carry defense.  However, they went up against an average opponent ranking 80.6 in defense and 86.7 in offense.  Compare that with UAB who ranked 50th in rushing yards per carry against an average defense ranking 71.5, and their defense ranked 81st, but they faced an average opponent ranked 66.3.  Again they stepped up their play when they faced better rushing teams with a 3-0 record against teams in the top 50 in rushing ypc.  Their wins came against an average opponent ranking 60.9 and their losses came against a 75.8.

UAB also has the edge in adjusted line yards on the OL & DL coming in at 35 to 60, and 44 to 79.  UAB also better in TO margin, but are not as good in special teams.  Special teams would be the only reason I see them not winning this game.

FIU +7 4.4% PLAY  

This game takes place in St. Petersburg, FL which is much closer for the FIU athletes. This game will be in a dome, and I think that favor FIU's offense here. I also like the coaching edge with Butch Davis 5-2 in bowl games, with Geoff Collins coaching in his first. I looked in depth at what both teams can do on the line of scrimmage and running the ball. FIU wants to run the ball and they rank 56th in yards per carry. They'll be going up against a Temple defense that has not been good against the run ranking 83rd, but some of that has to do with strength of schedule as they have faced an average opponent rush defense ranking 45th. However, FIU does have balance with the QB so it's not like Temple can sell out to stop the run. FIU faced 4 TOP 50 rushing defenses and they beat 2 of them. Looking at Temples ability to run the ball and it gets worse for Temple who ranks 88th in ypc, and that was against an average opponent run defense ranking 78th. They lost to 3 teams who did not rank in the top 70 in run defense much like FIU who comes in ranking 93rd, but had a tough schedule facing an average opponent offense ranking 56th. FIU went 5-1 against teams ranking 75th or worse against the run. Overall I give the edge running the ball in this game to FIU and it makes sense when we compare the offensive lines in this game. Temple ranks 118th in adjusted line yards, while FIU ranks 56th. Let's look at the passing attacks. As you may know Temple got a ton of credit down the stretch as they switched their QB to Frank Nutile and he did play better than Logan Marchi, but still turned the ball over 7 times. Marchi also went against passing defense ranked 103, 120, 111, 45 (loss), and 127. So I would believe most QB's could put up decent and probably better numbers than he did in those 5 games. Overall Temples passing offense still on the season ranked 82nd in QB rating and they faced an average opponent ranking 81st in QB rating defense. Not really impressed with Temples' offense at all. FIU meanwhile has a senior QB in Alex McGough who had a very good year and this offense had a QB rating ranked #29 in the nation and faced a tougher schedule facing opponent defenses ranking #65. Temple does have a clear edge in pass defense, but they only rank #65 and against teams ranked in the top 50 passing the ball they actually went 2-4 on the season. FIU, very bad against the pass, but they did have a tough schedule with an average opponent ranking #67. Temple may be able to move the ball in the air in this one, but I would expect FIU to force some turnovers. Slight edge to FIU here as well. I remind you that FIU is a dog. Mainly because of Temple's success down the stretch and their alleged strength of schedule. However, they turn the ball over far too much to be laying 7 points in FIU's home state. They have no edge in special teams ranking #22 to FIU's #21. They don't have a coaching edge, and their offense which would have to score a lot of points to cover this spread really is not good at throwing or running the ball. FIU's defense in my opinion is a bit under rated ranking #92 in yards per play, but an average opponent rank of #67. When facing an opponent offense ranking 60th or worse they went 6-1.

LA Tech / SMU Over 70 3.3% play 

I would originally leaned towards the value of SMU here, but with Dykes coaching that is out.  I actually like the total a lot more when looking at this.  These are two teams known for their offenses, with balanced offensive attacks playing in Texas with good weather.  Both defenses also have big weaknesses on defense and even thought he total is high at 70 I like the over. 

SMU has not faced a lot of top defenses, and they won't here either.  They have faced just 3 teams in the top 85 in yards per play defense (LA Tech ranks 77th), but even in those games they averaged 34 points per game.  That came against TCU, one of the best defenses in the country, Arkansas State (41st ypp defense), and Houston who has the most dominant defensive player in the country.  LA Tech really doesn't have any of that nor do they have the defensive coaching staff to come up with a brilliant game plan to stop a very good SMU offense that is probably better than the FAU team that scored 48 on them.  SMU ranks 15th in yards per play offense, but they also rank 27th in QB rating, and 29th in yards per carry for a very balanced offense.

Louisiana Techs' offense was down this year compared to previous years, but they have an offensive coach in Skip Holtz.  Holtz has been very good in bowl games and this offense was still pretty balanced and shows no weaknesses ranking 64th in passing yards per game and 54th running.  Each of the last two years this team put up 47 and 48 points in bowl games.  Now he's going up against the worst defense they have faced all year.  LA Tech has faced 7 teams in the top 85 in yards per play defense.  This offense has faced a lot of defenses that are better than SMU.  The two times they faced a team similar to SMU they put up 42 points in each game.  I am expecting another game for LA Tech to score in the 40's.

Middle Tennessee +3.5 5.5% POD

Since 2014, Conference USA is 15-5 against the Sun Belt and 4-2 this year.  Their 2 losses came with their 2 worst teams Charlotte & UTEP facing two bowl teams from the Sun Belt.  The 4 wins all by a TD or more.  Middle Tennessee is a dog, because they only won 6 games, and Arkansas State is that sexy team with the sexy QB in Justice Hansen.  However, the Blue Raiders were picked to win C-USA by many and in game 2 they went into Syracuse and won.  The same place Clemson lost on the road later in the season.  Also worth noting is Middle Tennessee played 6 bowl teams with 3 power 5 opponents.  Arkansas State only had 2 opponents that are in bowls and played FCS and 1 power 5 opponent being Nebraska who did not get to a bowl game. 

Middle Tennessee lost their QB in after week 2 and the season really turned for the worse.  They were already without their starting RB, Terrelle West to start the year.  Both are healthy for the bowl game and when Stockstill is playing this offense ranks 36 points per game and without just 19.5.  This is a very balanced offense with West back healthy he had 170 rushing yards in their last game and they have an extra week to prepare for this game vs. what Arkansas State has. 

Before we get to Middle Tennessee State's defense let's take a look at Arkansas State.  This offense was amazing this year and Justice Hansen who threw for 3,630 yards 34 TD's and 15 interceptions.  A closer look though reveals the defenses they have faced have been trash.  An average opponent ranking 93.5 in yards per play allowed.  Hansen has gone up against some of the worst passing defenses in the nation.  8 out of his 10 opponents were 91st or worse in pass defense.  He faced Troy 65th, and lost and beat New Mexico State who ranked 52nd.  MTSU faced 6 passing offenses in the top 60.

MTSU ranked 20th in yards per play allowed with their defense really picking things up this year.  In years past it was really their weakness that kept them from bowl wins.  This year they had no choice but to play defense with Stockstill gone for most of the season.  Middle Tennessee is also 12th in yards per completion which could cause some issues for Arkansas State's passing game while the run defense has been solid all year allowing just 5.61 yards per carry.

Arkansas State's defense probably has seen one offense better and that was SMU who put 44 points up on them.  There are a lot of ways MTSU can win this game.  Arkansas State has no business being a favorite when they have turned the ball over 18 times in 6 road games this year.  They are also averaging nearly 2 more penalties per game than Middle Tennessee ranking 125th in the nation.  The one big strength their defense has that I can not deny is Ja'von Rolland-Jones who has 13 sacks in 11 games.  However, MTSU typically under Stockstill gets rid of the ball fast he took just 14 sacks a year ago.  This year the offensive line ranks 17th in sack rate on passing downs.  I think Middle Tennessee comes into this game with a bit of a chip on their shoulder having not won a bowl game since 2009.  Their leader Stockstill can lead them to a bowl game now that he's back and that's exactly what I'll predict. 

Marshall/Colorado State Over 58 3.3% play

I originally leaned Marshall out of Conference USA, but Colorado State has faced a far tougher schedule.  There was no way I could back Colorado State given their struggles during bowl season and down the stretch of the regular season.  The last 3 years in bowl games they went 0-3 SU & ATS missing the spread by 67 points combined.  Meanwhile, Marshall is 10-1 SU & ATS, but Colorado State has an extra week to prepare for this game.

That led me to the total, and in bowl games I would tend to lean towards the over.  Tackling is sure not going to be at a premium in some of these lower level games.  The weather is also setting up to be very nice 50 degrees with less than 10 mph winds.

When looking at these two teams they are both coming off some unders giving u value to the over.  We also have two teams very unfamiliar with each other playing in different conferences.  I think that benefits the offenses and speaking of offenses Marshall has not faced an offense this good all year long.  Colorado State can run the ball ranking 27th in ypc.  Marshall only faced 2 teams in the top 50 all year and they scored 30 and 28 points.  Colorado State can throw the ball ranking 12th in QB rating.  Marshall again only faced 2 teams ranked in the top 30 in passing offense and they gave up 41 and 28 points.  Colorado State goes up against the 15th ranked rushing defense which leads me to believe they will put together a game plan with more passing which typically leads  to higher scoring games.  I could see Colorado State scoring 40+ points with future NFL WR Michael Gallup having a great day.  This is an offense that put up 52 points on Boise State a few weeks back and Boise has a very balanced defense.

For Marshall's offense the key is whether or not they get the running game going.  IN games where they have 130+ rushing yards they average 29.4 points per game.  In games where they don't they average 17.75 ppg.  Marshall also has special teams capability with Keion Davis who took two kicks back for 6 in 1 game.  They will face a Colorado State defense that struggles to stop the run.  They gave up 130 yards rushing in 9 of their 12 games and rank 104th in rush defense.  To me there are a lot of things pointing to both of these teams getting into the 30's or more and with a total of 58 I like the over. 

Oregon -7 3.3% Play

In my podcast I had mentioned there would be value on Oregon because Jim Leavitt their defensive coordinator was staying.  There are still rumors that he may go to Florida State, but for now at least it seems like he's coaching for this game and that's a big deal as he dramatically improved this defense making them a top 30 unit with 5 yards per play allowed.  Last year they allowed 6.4 which would have put them 115th in the nation to put things in perspective.  Boise State's offense is not what it once was and they have been juggling QB's which I never like.  Aside from some early big scoring games they have struggled against top 50 defenses scoring just 27ppg compared to 39.2 against non-top 50.  They also scored 17 in back to back games against Fresno State.  Fresno State a very balanced defense against the run and pass much like Oregon who is also top 50 in opponent passer rating and opponent yards per rush.  I'm expecting a similar output from Boise State's offense who could be missing their best player in RB Alex Mattison who is questionable for this game.

Oregon's offense has had its ups and downs this year and are likely without RB Royce Freeman here.  Freeman is going to sit out to rest for the NFL draft.  I never agree with that, but I say they are better off and have plenty of talent behind Freeman to fill in the gap.  Justin Herbert, the QB will play in this game and if you have watched Oregon this year they are just a different offense with him in there.  With Herbert the offense averaged 52 points per game and without only 15ppg.  I paid dearly for backing Oregon a couple times without Herbert.  Boise State is very good on paper just like they always are, but in reality they haven't faced any balanced offenses.  Colorado State would be close and they put up 52 points on Boise State.  Virginia had the QB bomb away for 42 points, and they gave up 47 to Washington State and their backup QB with a one dimensional attack.

I would lean toward the over if I caught it early, but don't be surprised to see Boise State's offense really struggle here.  If I caught wind of Leavitt definitely leaving then I would like the over a lot more. 

North Texas +215 2% play

Seth Littrell and his coaching staff a bit less distractions and are probably more excited to be here with a chance at a 10th win which would tie their program record.  Troy had many bigger games this year including their win against LSU on the road, but the biggest win of the year came on the road against Arkansas State to share the Sun Belt Championship.  Arkansas State had owned them previously and Troy finally got over that hump.  I'm not saying Troy won't want to win this game, but of the two I have to think North Texas is a bit more excited here.

We saw and bet against North Texas in the C-USA Championship, but it was because of the match-up.  Against Florida Atlantic whose main strength is the running game they were in a tough spot.  North Texas defense is not good against the run especially not good running games.  This is a winnable match-up for them as Troy's offense ranks 85th in rushing yards per game.  Troy's defense is also very strong ranking #27 overall in yards allowed, but their one weakness is against the pass ranking #69.  North Texas sports a balanced offense that ranked 19th in total yards, but their strength is behind their QB Mason Fine.  Troy's defense is also a bit misleading as they have only faced 4 teams inside the top 100 in yards per play.  Boise State, New Mexico State, LSU, and Arkansas State.  Every other team they had faced was ranked 115th or worse.  North Texas ranks #34 with their balanced offense.

North Texas also comes from the better conference.  Conference USA is 15-5 the last 4 years against the Sun Belt and have covered 2 of the 3 bowl games they have matched up in during that time.  North Texas a relatively big dog where we typically see CUSA a larger favorite.  I think there is very good value here in the dog and I like them to pull the upset. 

Army +135 5.5% POD

I really do not understand this line.  I get that Navy has faced a tougher schedule in terms of the offenses they have faced.  They have faced an average running offense ranked 33rd compared to Army at 69.7, but the defenses Navy has faced this year have been trash an average 83.6 against the run.  These two teams also had three common opponents (Tulane, Air Force, & Temple) while they both went 2-1 in those games I feel like Army actually outplayed them in those games. 

Army also had 2 of those 3 games on the road while Navy was at home for 2 of those 3 games.  Let's take a look at how the rushing offenses and defenses did in those games.  Army allowed 565 rushing yards in those 3 games while Navy allowed 635 and more importantly Army shut down Air Force's triple option holding them under 95 yards while Navy allowed 340 yards to Air Force at home while Army was on the road.  Offensively, Army rushed for 1,011 yards in those 3 games while Navy ran for 804 yards.  This is the first year since 2012 season that Army actually averaged more yards per carry on the season entering this game than Navy as they led the nation in rushing yards and were 9th in rushing ypc.  navy finished 14 ant 0.4 yards per carry behind Army.

Army, also has the better special teams and for once they take care of the ball better.  Taking care of the ball is a big reason why Army has lost these games in the past.  Even last year they had 4 turnovers in this game.  The year before they lost by 4 and turned the ball over 3 times.  Jeff Monken has made it a priority that this team takes care of the ball and they have only 9 turnovers on the year while Navy is at 19.  Navy -6 TO margin to Army's +4 is an advantage that Army can use to win this game.  Army also has advantages on 3rd down offense, red zone offense, red zone defense and 3rd down defense along with tackles for loss.  

This all goes back to Army's head coach Jeff Monken in my opinion.  In 2014 Army was +16.5 when he took over and they lost by 7, and 2015 they were +21.5 they lost by 4, and in 2016 they were +5.5 and won outright.  I was on board with that as my POD +225 hit.  This is the game for Monken, and with their win 21-0 over Air Force earlier in the year this game means even more than it did last year as they have a chance at bringing the Commander in Chief trophy home for the first time since 1996.  I think it happens there is just not something right with this Navy team who has just 6 wins this year.  I have a lot of respect for their head coach, but I was surprised they decided to let Showtime follow them around all year and it may have caused some distractions.

Wisconsin +170 2% play

The first thing I look at is what Ohio State is when they can’t run the ball.  Wisconsin, of course is #1 in rushing yards per carry allowed and they haven’t allowed a single team all year to run for more than 200 yards.  This defense is very smart and can adjust on the fly led by defensive coordinator Jim Leonard who has been excellent in his first season as defensive coordinator which is not shocking.  Ohio State is 0-2 when they don’t rush for more than 200 yards.  It happened twice all year against power 5 schools.  In their game against Oklahoma and Iowa.  Wisconsin’s defense can keep them in this game and don’t be surprised if they are able to continue their ability to turn opponents over.  They have blitz packages that JT Barret and this Ohio State offensive line has never seen before.

Speaking of JT Barret, he had surgery on his knee and will start.  This is one of the reasons I am pulling the trigger.  I don’t think the knee physically will be an issue, but mentally it can be something that limits Barrett.  I also like Barrett staying in there as we kind of know what to expect from him.  If Dwayne Haskins was getting the start believe it or not the line might have moved 3 points and I may be a buyer on Ohio State, but that’s not the case here.

Everyone is going to point to 59-0 loss that Wisconsin had 3 years ago in the Big Ten Championship against Ohio State, but I’m going to look at a more recent match-up last year.  Granted this game was at home, but Wisconsin had Ohio State on the ropes leading 16-6 at the half before Ohio State was able to force OT and win by a TD.  Wisconsin has been the best team in the nation in adjustments at the half.  4.8 points per game allowed which is over a FG better than a year ago.  Ohio State ranks 34th allowing 10.3ppg in the second half.  I think Jim Leonard is just that good.  There is a reason he stuck in the NFL so long.

So, I know Wisconsin does not have the edge at QB, but they do have Alex Hornibrook play action ability which Ohio State struggled with at Iowa.  Now I expect they have fixed that, but I liked what I saw from Hornibrook against Michigan.  When they needed him the most he stepped up and made some key throws in the second half that were difference makers.  Previously, I have not been a believer in him, but that game he had truly impressed me and I think he can do something here against one of the weaknesses of Ohio State’s defense which is the secondary.  Ohio State also issues all year and dating back to last year on their special teams unit so pay attention to that.

Clemson -10 2.2% play

Clemson is a fully balanced team in playoff mode right now and I don’t think Miami who is probably low on confidence after their game against Pitt is ready for this step up game.  This is the best offense, and the best defense that Miami has played all year and certainly the best team.  Miami has only faced two teams ranked in the top 50 in yards per play.  Toledo put 30 points on them really early in the season and Notre Dame I think we realized was over rated and one dimensional.  Clemson is not one dimensional despite what the media may say.  They can absolutely move the ball on the ground or the air and have a mobile QB.  Miami’s 10th ranked defense might get exposed a bit here.

Defensively, Miami’s inexperienced offense has not faced a team like Clemson.  They have had issues blocking up front and it showed against Pitt who has the #81 ranked yards per play defense.  Clemson #2 at getting to the QB in sack rate, and Miami again has not faced a top 30 pass rush all year, but Miami ranks 69th in protecting their QB and they have been worse of late.  This is also a coaching mismatch let’s be honest.  We have Miami OC Thomas Brown going up against Clemson Brent Venables.

This is also a game of experience.  Clemson has been in this game many times before and in the last two years have played in a ton of big games.  Miami, it’s their first time in the ACC Championship game and while they played well in their step up games, those games were at home.  Clemson in step up games won and covered the spread with ease.  At ranked South Carolina last week, against Auburn in week 2, @ Louisville a ranked team at the time, and Virginia Tech another road game.  Clemson won and covered each step up game and I don’t care about paying a premium to play them in this spot as I expect a cover and double digit victory.

Fresno State +9 3.3% play 

These two teams just met last week and while it was evident Boise did not show up to play in the loss I don't think this hurts Fresno State one bit.  I think it gives Fresno State a bit of confidence.  They had beaten Boise State by 1 point in 2013, but had lose every other game dating back to 2007.  I think that gives them confidence and looking at all the numbers they actually have the better defense.  I love taking the better defense getting over a TD in a championship game.

So both teams passed the ball more times than they ran the ball last week.  That went against their season averages of running the ball more during the regular season.  Boise runs the ball 53% of the time while Fresno comes in at 55%, but last week Boise decided to run it 46% of the time, and Fresno 45%.  I expect them to both try to run the ball again early in this one which favors Fresno State.  Fresno State ranks 64th in ypc compared to Boise State who ranks 80th.  Fresno also faced the tougher schedule facing an average opponent ranking 57th compare to Boise opponents at 60.75.  Fresno also had wins over run defenses ranking 20, 31, 27, and 18th.  Run defense favors Boise State who ranks 18th, compared to Fresno at 36th, but it's closer than that with Fresno facing an average opponent rushing offense ranking 54.9 compared to Boise's 64.5.  At the end of the day I think both these teams will struggle to run the ball and there is no edge giving one team the opportunity to run away with this game.  I think these teams are very much even and we are getting 9 points to play with.

I've heard sharps mention Boise -9 based on last week's -7 spread on the road as line value as they should be -13 this week.  I disagree.  I think Vegas set that line knowing these teams were going to have a vanilla game plan.  When you look at recent common opponents between these two teams Vegas values Boise State at about 4 points better add on the 3 for home field advantage and this line should be around 7 points.  However, Boise State at home under Bryan Harsin has not been very good.  Especially with his recruits in there as they have gone 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games.  They covered their last two as big favorites at home, but against just awful defenses in Nevada and Air Force.  As a 15.5 point favorite against Wyoming who has a good defense they failed to cover.

So we saw a similar situation last year with Wyoming facing San Diego State 2 weeks prior to the championship game and we saw a 4 point swing.  Wyoming out gained San Diego State in both games.  They won the regular season match-up 34-33, and lost the championship game 27-24.  Both games were close and I expect the same thing here with Fresno and Boise State.

South Alabama +300 2% play

This is a live dog here with South Alabama’s head coach Joey Jones hanging it up after this game.  He’s 52-49 as the only head coach for South Alabama.  I think his players will give it their all and they have already upset the best two teams in the conference in Arkansas State & Troy.  They did it with their defense holding them under 100 yards rushing.  New Mexico State only averages 3.8 yards per carry and have been held under 100 yards 6 times this season.  South Alabama also forced turnovers +8 in those two games.  New Mexico State’s Tyler Rogers has 15 interceptions on the year.  South Alabama is a team that in 2016 with just 6 wins had a lot of bad losses, but somehow were able to beat Miss State on the road 21-20, and San Diego State.  South Alabama also has an extra week to prepare and again I don’t think it is a meaningless game for them as I expect them to try to ruin New Mexico State’s hopes of going bowling with a win here. 

Auburn / Georgia Under 48.5 2.2% play 

I mentioned in my teaser play I saw this game being a little different.  I thought the total was a bit lucky to go over in the first game.  Here these team know how to scheme against each other even more.  These two teams are very similar to each other.  They are run first teams which keeps the clock moving with very strong defenses.  Georgia ranking 7th in yards per play allowed while Auburn ranks 8th.  Auburn ranking 14th vs. the run while Georgia ranks 23rd.  Auburn ranking 11th vs. the pass while Georgia ranking 5th.

This is a big game with a lot on the line.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see both teams sort of feel each other out early with a conservative game plan.  Neither team turns the ball over a ton Auburn 15 TO's, and Georgia 13 so don't expect points on defense either keeping this game in a 24-20 or 20-17 final.

Oklahoma -1 / Georgia +8.5 4.4% Teaser (Over 56% ATS Career on NCAAF Teasers)

Oklahoma - I actually took Oklahoma a while back at +1200 to win the national championship, but I have great respect for TCU’s head coach Gary Paterson, and that is why I’m using Oklahoma in a teaser even though I like them to win this game 10-14 points.  I don’t see anyway Kenny Hill and TCU will be able to beat Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma here.  I bet Oklahoma in the first match-up as a POD you can find that analysis here.  In that game I mentioned TCU’s defense had actually struggled vs. good offenses stating, TCU facing top 50 offenses (20, 3, 14th, 1) they gave up an average 500.75 yards per game and 32.25 points per game in those 4 match-ups.  Oklahoma scored 38 in the first half and cruised after having the big lead. 

TCU obviously very good at adjustments and shut Oklahoma out in the second half, but again I don’t think Oklahoma was really showing their full offense in the second half.  I also think Oklahoma was humbled the week they had to bench Baker Mayfield for a few snaps last week, and the offense has only gotten better with the emergence of RB Rodney Anderson who is a threat at RB 151 yards 2 TD’s in the first match-up and out of the backfield as a receiver, 5 receptions for 139 in the first match-up.  Look for TCU to take him away, but as we know Oklahoma has many weapons.

For TCU Kenny Hill has to show me something here, and he looked good against Baylor at home last week after missing the Texas Tech game, but Baylor doesn’t play defense at all ranking 115th in yards per play allowed.  I still think Oklahoma’s defense doesn’t get enough credit.  They will have the chance to make adjustments too and I think it’s easier for Oklahoma’s defense to make adjustments on TCU than TCU on Oklahoma, because TCU’s offense is not as dynamic.  Unless Kenny Hill is going to come out throwing the ball 40+ times I don’t see them catching Oklahoma off guard in this one.  I like the value of this game with a teaser as I see Oklahoma having issues at times in this game, but at the end of the day they’ll win.

Georgia – Do not be prisoner of the moment with Auburn knocking off two teams in 3 weeks who were ranked #1 with Georgia being one of them.  That was a huge emotional victory a week ago for Auburn where they really had to give it their all and are more banged up for this game.  It’s also important to note that Auburn will now be on the road.  I know it is a neutral site, but it will be played in Atlanta.

Georgia in the first match-up climbed to a 4 point favorite and I took Auburn in that match-up so I am flipping sides here a little, but I like the value we are getting.  If this game took place on a neutral field just 3 weeks ago the spread would be -5 or even -6 Georgia.  Now we are working with nearly 8 points of line value + our 6 on the teaser gives us a full 2 TD’s of line value.  Now that’s not to say Georgia is the better team, but I think they will be in a dog fight (no pun intended)

Georgia actually looked good in the first quarter in this game easily going down the field and scoring a TD to take a 7-0 lead.  I think their offense will look good here and Jake Fromm is fully capable of having a better game now that he knows what to look for from this Auburn defense.  An Auburn defense that just allowed 211 yards rushing to Alabama.  I think Georgia should also have confidence with a balanced attack here.  It won’t be as difficult to run on Auburn when they are not in Auburn’s home building.

Now Georgia actually did a good job holding Auburn’s running game intact for the most part they only scored 1 rushing TD, but Kerryon Johnson was just that good rushing for 167 yards on 32 carries.  However, Johnson is banged up and I am sure he will go, but how long before he injures his shoulder again in this game?  The drop off at RB is significant in my opinion.  Next, we have Jared Stidham his home and away splits are interesting.  He has a 175 QB Rating at home and a 137 on the road which is still good, but Georgia is one of the best passing defenses in the nation.  Georgia actually had 6 QB hurries and 2 sacks in the first game.  We know Auburn’s pass blocking has improved throughout the season, but it’s still something you have to factor into this game.  Georgia’s front 7 havoc rate ranks 37th compared to Auburn at 74.  At the end of the day I think these two teams are pretty even.  The game should be a pk, but it’s not because of recent Auburn wins, I’ll look to fade them and hope Georgia can pull the upset as I am holding a +1800 ticket for them to win the national championship.