Take Rutgers -1 (3.5 Dime Early Bird Special)
I'm going with Rutgers as West Virginia not only comes off a huge win against Pittsburgh, but has won 14 straight against Rutgers and is now playing on the road on Sr. Day.

Rutgers knows what it feels like to lose on Sr. Day to another team. As they did to Syracuse two weeks ago, but against Louisville last week they simply dismantled a very bad Louisville and Schiano added in a new wrinkle for their best player Freshmen sensastion Mohamed Sanu. He operated out of the wild cat threw a TD pass and rushed 148 yards on 18 carries. Look for that to be in the mix as well to keep West Virginia's pass rush in balance. When Sanu is not taking the ball from the wild cat it will be the speedy Tim Brown moving the chains from Tom Savage. Joe Martinek at half back has been up and down and should struggle against West Virginia but he'll get a couple of goal line carries that will matter.

West Virginia pulled off the upset a week ago and we were on them to do so against Pitt. Today though they are just under matched Rutgers has the 16th best rush defense allowing just 104 yards per game. Scott Vallone and Charlie Noonan are solid in the middle of the line and the LB support is there too. There are no stars on this team on defense but everyone does what they are supposed to do. IN a year where West Virginia's offense has not been so good this game will be close and low scoring and come down to who forces the turnovers to win the game. Well in my opinion that has to be Rutgers who has forced 30 turnovers meanwhile on the year they have only turned the ball over 10 times. Along with that goes their red zone defense, well let's take a look they have only allowed opponents into the red zone 23 times all year. That's 2nd in the nation behind Alabama. That's impressive and this is a huge game for the Seniors on Sr. Day they would like nothing more to go out against a team they haven't beat in their great 4 years. It's not like Rutgers is getting blown out they have played close games including 2006's 41-39 triple OT game known as one of the best Big East games ever and 24-17 game last year. Rutgers finally gets one.

Take OHIO +14 BODOG (4-Dime NCAAF POD)
This should be a great game and even for the MAC that's saying a lot. The MAC will be getting tons of attention tonight in this match up at Ford Field in Detroit. It should be extremely exciting.

For me I like Ohio as they have been playing their best football and have the players on defense to stop Mr. Dan Lefevour. Ohio only lost a year ago to the Chips 31-28 and they are playing much better than last year. 14 points is a lot in a championship game and the spread has climbed there due to the unfortunate injuries of Brazil and Scott. Theo Scott has been incredible and in the last two games he has delivered against the MAC's #1 and #3 defenses in Temple and Northern Illinois. Scott delivered with 3TD passes against NILL on 17 of 21 324 yards and 5 total TD's against Temple two rushing. He is now listed as probable and saw some practice time this week. He is the key to this team's chances and a team that was ranked among the worst in red zone offense is now getting into the end zone in their last two games against quality opponents who were playing for a chance at the MAC title. In the end it was Frank Solich's great coaching that has turned this team around from where they were struggling earlier in the season. Ohio has really impressed me more and more each time I've watched them as Scott not only has the ability to run but throw accurate passes while protecting the football. Ohio has forced 35 turnovers this season while Cmich has only turned the ball over 13 times, Ohio is one of the best at taking the ball away via the fumble or interceptions.

It's not crazy to think that Ohio can win this game out right as we have seen shocking out comes in the past between the MAC teams in the title games. The east and west are not separated by much as last year it was Buffalo forcing turnover after turnover in an upset over undefeated Ball State. Sound familiar? In 2005 it was Akron getting a last second score to break N. Illinois' heart.

Central Michigan has handled everyone in the MAC relatively easily except Buffalo where they won by just a TD. Ohio has a better defense than Buffalo and can stop the pass as they are tops in the MAC in pass effeciency defense. Ohio has had a more challenging schedule in terms of defenses they have seen. They have seen both Uconn and Tennessee and have been in both games losing those two games by a combined 18 points on the road. Now we saw Central Michigan get exposed against Boston College and Arizona. A solid defense can stop the Chippewas. Ohio ranked 35th nationally have the ability to force Lefevour to throw underneath and they have the linebackers to contain him in the running game as linebackers Lee Renfro and Noah Keller are among the better duo in the MAC. Keller at MLB is all over the field and leads the team with 122 tackles. They were able to contain a temple running game that is much better than Central Michigan and if they can get a turnover or two like they usually do they could very well pull off the impossible. In the end what I truly believe is Central Mich will be up by a TD late in the 4th and Ohio will be stopped. Central Mich gets the ball back and gets a few first downs to run out the clock. However, I feel strongly the ability for OHIO to win is there and that is why I am backing them big in this one!

Take Oregon -9.5 (3.5 Dime OE play)
I'm going with Oregon here while Oregon State scares many other people because of their strength on run defense it does not scare me. Now Oregon State can stop the run no doubt about it but nobody runs the option better than Oregon. This is not a straight up power I come stop us type of offense for the Ducks. It's an entirely new dynamic that Oregon State will struggle with just like they struggled a year ago when Oregon went to Oregon State and won 65-38. That defense had 8 seniors with 5 of them now playing in the NFL. This years team although stout and playing above expectations have just two starting seniors. Will they really be able to do a better job than last year's team? While it may not be quite as an impressive win for Oregon they still will win by double digits which is all we need. In Pac-10 home games this year and they've played some big ones they have won by 23, 27, 46, and 39. That's in a conference that is very solid from the top to the bottom minus Washington State. Now I also like Oregon because of the non-conference schedule they chose to play Boise State, Purdue who was a tough match up for them because of their passing game, and Utah. Oregon STate faced one solid team in Cincinnati which may or may not be as good as Boise State. The other two were UNLV and Portland State. Now that was a long long time ago and probably irrelevant in this game, but I thought it be necessary to show clients what they are getting themselves into if they are backing Oregon State.

The Ducks have at least 42 points in all seven of QB Masoli's Pac-10 starts this season and I doubt it will not meet that mark here today. Here is where the Ducks have the advantage. Oregon State has a solid offense too in fact much more balanced with the ability to pass or run the ball through the Rodgers brothers. Canfield has come through at QB with big time plays without turning the ball over. Oregon State has just 8 turn overs on the year 2nd to only Cincinnati. However, they have only taken the ball over 12 times. Advantage Oregon which is ranked 29th in TO margin. Canfield will have some troubles against Oregon's tested 29th ranked pass defense which has had injuries and backed up their play regardless. The strength for Oregon is that they can play offense or defense while Oregon STate's strength on defense won't be a strength leading to a double digit loss.

Masolli and the speedy LaMichael James will be too much to handle in this one. When Massoli wants or needs to throw the ball he will and can against Oregon State's 92nd ranked pass defense. They don't have the linebackers to cover both and Masolli is not afraid to throw the ball and he has a great weapon to do so in TE Ed Dickson. He is in my opinion the best TE in the country he's got 42 receptions and 551 yards and six TD's. He is athletic and has terrific hands. A few passes to him early will open up the running game for Massoli up the middle a place they have to prove they can run to take over this game early. Oregon at home is the biggest advantage in this one and they will back it up with a trip to the Rose Bowl to face Ohio State with a win here tonight.

Take Kentucky +3 +100 SIA 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
Not only are Kentucky at home, but Tennessee is 0-3 on the road this year and this is the first time they are favorites. They have some major injuries that are a cause of concern for their great defense. They are extremely thin and it's going to hurt them in this game. You have already seen the line which opened at +3.5 come down in many places and in some places it moved to 2.5 today.

I think Kentucky has faced an equally challenging schedule, and in fact they have faced an average defense ranked 41st while TN has faced 46th. Kentucky has a similar rushing attack to Mississippi and maybe even better now that Derrick Locke is 100% healthy. They add WR Randall Cobb int he wild cat and that could spell issues with TN which had all kinds of problems with McCluster out of the wild cat. TN seems to have issues stopping runners that are small and quick, and while Locke fits the bill he's not exactly McCluster yet. I can see Kentucky pounding the ball all day long and dominating the time of possession something TN has got to be afraid of because if they don't get up and they are forced to throw it could get ugly. Even though Crompton has had an excellent season Kentucky has possibly the best shut down CB Trevard Lindley finally getting healthy and helping the defense force turnovers which they did a lot of against Georgia.

Derrick Locke also leads the SEC with a 30.5 kickoff return average and is a threat to bring it back every time and should give Kentucky good field position all day long. With that said Kentucky has lost to TN 24 straight times and it's something they are not taking lightly. Both teams are in a bowl game and Kentucky with a win could move to 8-4 and go to an even bigger bowl game which is the goal here. I look for DT Corey Peters to plug the middle and stop Montario Hardesty early giving Kentucky the advantage by getting an early lead.

Take Marshall +2 4-dime NCAAF POD RU
I'm going with Marshall in this spot, UTEP has not won a season finale since 1986 and I have no reason to believe they will get one here. Marshall is solid all around and they take advantage of teams with bad defenses as UTEP ranked 109th overall total offense and 109th in scoring defense. They've given up 30 points 4 straight weeks now, and when Marshall faces teams with 100 or worst ranked defenses they are 4-0 averaging 30 points and an average MOV of 20.5 points.

For UTEP all they have to play for is to get their RB the national rushing title and they will get a lot of yard on the ground with Bruckham, but Mrshall is #1 in pass defense in conference play, and 3rd in scoring defense allowing just 19ppg in conference play. Marshall has everything to play for as a win and their in a bowl game. They get their runner back in Darius Marshall he's the leagues #3 leading rusher and he should go, and that will help QB Brian Anderson who will be able to set a lot up with play action. If this game is close it will be Marshall winning as UTEP has lost a school record five contests by 7 or fewer points. UAB, also has a great running game ranked 6th in the country and Marshall shut them down to score just 7 points in a win. Look for a similar type game as I think Marshall rolls here 30-14!

Take UCF -3 (3-Dime Play)
It's strength vs. strength here as nobody is better at stopping the run in conference USA than UCF as they are ranked 2nd in the nation while as UAB is ranked 6th in the country. However, it's a one man attack for the most part their QB Joe Webb who ranks 12th nationally in rushing yards is the show. Slow Webb and you win the game. Why is this line so low well 17 seniors return from the team that beat UCF 15-0 and they are home and on SR. Day. However, UCF has all the momentum in this playing their best two games in back to back wins of Houston, and then Tulane. The offense has started to gel and they will have more success here today against UAB's pass defense that is the worst in the nation ranked at 120. What has UCF done against poor defenses like this? Well they beat Memphis ranked 118th against the pass 32-14, and then Rice 49-7 ranked 108th against the pass. Look for another 30+ points from UCF and that usually means victory as they are 17-1 when scoring 20+ points over the last 32 games. Guess what UAB has given up 20+ points in all but one game this year. Webb will have his hands filled against this stout defense that has been tested by Houston, Miami and Texas three of the nations top scoring offenses. Webb will be contained by Bruce Miller and Jarvis Geathers the pair of DE's lead the C-USA with 10 sacks a piece. They also have 26.5 tackles for loss and 14 hurries along with 4 forced fumbles. UAB has been hot to putting up 543 yards per game over their last three, but those opponents defense ranked 116, 115, and 65 in total offense. UCF is the real deal and can shut you down, just ask Houston who struggled who were held to 17 points for three quarters.

Take UNC -5.5 3.5 Dime EBS play
D-FENCE, That's really all I have to say and you won't need to know more, because this will be the best defense NC State sees all year. A defense out for revenge from a year ago when they lost 41-10 to this team. UNC has what I consider to be the best defense in the nation solid against the run and the pass, and a knack for forcing turnovers when DE Robert Quinn gets into the backfield. UNC posesses a better defense than South Carolina the team held NC State to 3 points in game 1, better than the Va Tech defense that held them to 10 points, and again better than the Clemson defense too. So why is this line less than a TD? It has been the Tar Heels inability to put up points that have them small favorites here today, but the offense should be able to run the ball here today in my opinion and if they stack the box to stop Houston Yates, should be able to spread things out and create some match up problems.

NC State is ranked 99th in scoring defense, while UNC is ranked 12th in scoring defense two ingredients that set up very nicely for the team with the dominant defense. UNC already beat VA Tech and Duke two teams that NC State lost to and got blown out of the building. I expect Kendric Burney to have a game changing play as he'll be all over the field and will strike fear in the eyes of Russell Wilson who will be confused all day long . Wilson has thrown a pick in each of his last seven games. Make it eight here on Saturday.

Take West Virginia +1.5 3.5 dime NCAAF OE play
I'm going with West Virginia with all the public going on Pitt and several handicappers releasing this as a GOY which I never believe in anyway and have to laugh at I'm going with the West Virginia team that still remembers Pitt knocking them out of the National Championship game two years ago as 4 TD favorites.

Give me a healthy Noel Devine and West Virginia at home and I will bet them as under dogs all day long. This is one of the better teams in the Big East and they fought right with Cinci 24-21 loss. This is possibly the first time they had their defense they thought they would have on the field. They can handle and have the players up front in Chris Neild and Scooter Berry to stop the freshmen sensation Dion Lewis from Pitt. It's pretty simple stop Lewis and you stop Pitt. Pitt went on the road to NC State a team that has identical ranks to what West Virginia does on both sides of the ball and they lost by 7 points and were out gained by 114 yards on the ground. That is something that can happen with a healthy Devine on the field with 13 days of rest behind him. Devine gets some breaks here too with a nice backup Ryan Clarke can hit the holes which will give room for Devine outside. West Virginia is 6-0 at home this season and they have all the abilities to pull off this upset.

Just so you get what I am speaking of with NC State. NC State's Offensive ranks are 50th total, 21st passing, 88th rushing, 36th scoring, West Virginia 54th, 67th, 33rd, 57th. Not as close as the defensive numbers are NC States 52nd total, 54th pass, 56th rush, and 99 scoring, West Virginia possesses a better D 44, 64, 35 and the big key 32nd. This will be a low scoring game and in the end it'll be Jarret Brown getting out of the pocket away from that great pass rush to make some plays.

Take Bowling Green -7@ bodog- 4-Dime POD Runner up
I'm going with BG here today as they are clearly the better team and with a win most likely will get a shot at a bowl game at 7-5. Toledo's defense is simply not good enough and has struggled wtih teams that can pass the ball. Bowling Green has the best passing game in the MAC, and the next closest opponent that Toledo has faced was Western Michigan who put up 58 points on this defense, and Toledo was home in that game. Western Mich who has the 103rd ranked defense is not a team that can stop the passing game like Bowling green ranked 25th in the nation can. If BG gets up early Toledo will have no shot in this one.

The closest defenses that Bowling Green has faced was Troy Week 1 where they won 31-14 and Troy actually has a better passing game than Toledo. Then Ball State which has a better defense but worse offense with a win 31-17. Both times they put up the points and were able to contain a passing attack. Look at the common opponent of Miami OH on the road where Bowling Green won 35-14 and Toledo lost 24-31. So again another thing to look at in this match up but what it comes down to his Bowling Green's Tyler Sheehan and Freddie Barnes.

Barnes leads the nation in receptions, yards, and Td catches and still has much to prove. This will be the worst defense that Bowling Green has faced all year long and I look for them to get it in the end zone early and often here today. Bowling Green has faced better offenses ranked an average 61 this year while Toledo has faced an average team ranked 83rd in total offense and their defense is significantly worse. So why is this line just a TD? It's because Toledo is more balanced on offense and Bowling Green can't seem to stop the running game, ranked 106th in the nation. See I feel comfortable laying the points and the reason why is this team can get out on top in a hurry and they don't turn the ball over Sheehan just 6 interceptions. Probably the biggest reason was Bowling Green's MAC leading 3rd down conversion defense where the offense they face is successful just 34.6% of the time. They also are 4th in the conference in red zone defense two important ingredients to back a team ATS especially a favorite!

Take Ohio +3 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
I'm going with Ohio the team with the knack for the big play and turnovers. They are second in the nation with 32 forced turnovers. This defense has been tested before and has answered the bell. They have a more challenging schedule in terms of the offenses they have faced compared to temple who has seen an average 79th total offensive teams this year while Ohio comes in at 67th.

The Keys to the game:
It's pretty simple to be honest get a lead early. Which ever team gets the early lead is going to win. If Temple can run the ball with a lead Ohio is in trouble, because Temple has the biggest O'line that Ohio will face. However, they came up huge a week ago against N. Illinois a mirror image on offense to Temple holding Chad Span to 2.7 yards per carry and a total of 103 rushing yards. N. Illinois still hung 31 up on Ohio in a loss, but they have QB that has a little more experience than Temple's starter Chester Stewart who can hurt you with his arm and feet, but lacks accuracy as he was just 6-16 a week ago. That's huge especially against a defense that can pick the ball off and I believe they will here today. Stewart is going to have to have a big game against Ohio as they will stack the box to stop the running game that has been hurt by injury their stud freshmen Bernard Pierce 1,349 and 15TD's is out for the game and miniature Matt Brown 5 foot 5 167 lbs won't have the same effect and should be contained by Ohio.

With that said if Ohio can contain Brown they will force TO's, and that will allow Theo Scott to hit the mid range passes like I know he can to his very talented receiving duo Brazill, and Price. Price who needs two TD catches to become Ohio's all time leader in TD receptions can take over a game and has game breaking speed. While Brazill is just that guy that reminds me of Hines Ward has a knack for the ball on third down and superb hands. You can also add in Terrence McCrae who will make some plays. Bottom line this game comes down to who can limit the TO's and throw the ball and I put it on Theo Scott the redshirt Sr. to get the job done against his counterpart.

Yes, Temple 3-0 on the road in the MAC, but the opponents have a combined 7-27 record, so this will be a completely different situation and environment with actual noise. I don't know if they can handle it on Black Friday!

Take Ohio +3 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD
I'm going with Ohio the team with the knack for the big play and turnovers. They are second in the nation with 32 forced turnovers. This defense has been tested before and has answered the bell. They have a more challenging schedule in terms of the offenses they have faced compared to temple who has seen an average 79th total offensive teams this year while Ohio comes in at 67th.

The Keys to the game:
It's pretty simple to be honest get a lead early. Which ever team gets the early lead is going to win. If Temple can run the ball with a lead Ohio is in trouble, because Temple has the biggest O'line that Ohio will face. However, they came up huge a week ago against N. Illinois a mirror image on offense to Temple holding Chad Span to 2.7 yards per carry and a total of 103 rushing yards. N. Illinois still hung 31 up on Ohio in a loss, but they have QB that has a little more experience than Temple's starter Chester Stewart who can hurt you with his arm and feet, but lacks accuracy as he was just 6-16 a week ago. That's huge especially against a defense that can pick the ball off and I believe they will here today. Stewart is going to have to have a big game against Ohio as they will stack the box to stop the running game that has been hurt by injury their stud freshmen Bernard Pierce 1,349 and 15TD's is out for the game and miniature Matt Brown 5 foot 5 167 lbs won't have the same effect and should be contained by Ohio.

With that said if Ohio can contain Brown they will force TO's, and that will allow Theo Scott to hit the mid range passes like I know he can to his very talented receiving duo Brazill, and Price. Price who needs two TD catches to become Ohio's all time leader in TD receptions can take over a game and has game breaking speed. While Brazill is just that guy that reminds me of Hines Ward has a knack for the ball on third down and superb hands. You can also add in Terrence McCrae who will make some plays. Bottom line this game comes down to who can limit the TO's and throw the ball and I put it on Theo Scott the redshirt Sr. to get the job done against his counterpart.

Yes, Temple 3-0 on the road in the MAC, but the opponents have a combined 7-27 record, so this will be a completely different situation and environment with actual noise. I don't know if they can handle it on Black Friday!

Take W-Mich -11 2.5 Dime National Stage Showdown
I'm taking the points with Western Michigan at home. I know it's a lot of points and Ball State has played close in all of their MAC games until last week when they faced Central Michigan. Western Michigan was an early season favorite in the MAC, but it has been an up and down season. They have an outside shot at getting a bowl game but they'll need to win here to go 6-6.

The good news for them is whenever Ball State faces a team with a passing offense they give up points and lots of them. They've faced three teams with top 38 passing games. Toledo (gave up 37pts), Bowling Green (gave up 31 points), and Central Mich (gave up 35 pts). All three of those games have been at home now they'll go on the road to play a desperate team with a passing game. This game could get ugly, as Tim Hiller needs 2 passing TDs to pass Chad Pennington on the all time MAC career passing TD list. There is no doubt this means something and there is no doubt that he comes up with a big time performance.

On the other hand Ball State's offense has now gone down the tubes and with Tanner Justice at QB because the starting QB is out for the season. They haven't thrown for more than 134 yards in their last 5 games and with the Wmich defense forcing 3 interceptions a week ago I think they take that momentum into this game. They haven't been able to runt he ball as of late either, and they most likely will get down big ofrcing Justice to throw the ball. You know it's bad news when your coach Stan Parrish said the team lacked enthusiasm, " I think we ran out of juice." That was in a home game on Sr. night. What will happen on their final season game against a team that is thinking of this game as a playoff game.

I'll be brief here basically San Jose has had a rough schedule and that explains their 116th offense and 117th ranked defense. The reason we have a short line is because San Jose matches up with the strength of Hawaii which is passing as San Jose is ranked 25th against the pass in the nation and they have faced some good passing teams.

The issue here is Hawaii has been able to run the ball as of late and do so against poor rushing defenses. San Jose has given up 898 rushing yards and 11 TD's in their last 2 games. Hawaii's QB can run out of the spread and their HB Leon Wright-Jackson has averaged 9 ypc in his last 27 carries look for him to get the ball early and often against San Jose. Hawaii wants to go bowling and they'll need to win out starting here I expect them to beat the teams they are supposed to.

Take Army moneyline +115 3.5 Dime Oddsline Error Play
The better team has a lot to play for. Army can win out and make it to a bowl, it will be tough to win the next game, but if they win here today they force a showdown with Navy. Something I think is just bound to happen in this match up against North Texas.

Army is pretty much a run first team as they rank last in the nation on the pass because they just don't bother to throw the ball and because of that they are among the leaders in overall defense ranked 13th and 3rd against the pass. They'll face a North Texas team that can put up some offense, but also struggles on defense. Actually they are ranked 115th in scoring defense and 102nd against the run something that favors army big time in this match up. Look for Army to control the ball for long stretches and I look for RB Patrick Mealy to build off his career high 136 rushing yards a week ago. Trent Steelman also coming off his best game 11-14 for 174 yards most of them to his 6-10 WR. Yes you heard that right WR Alejandro Villanueva is the tallest player in college football at 6 foot 10 and had seven catches all for first downs for 119 yards. Granted it was against VMI, but that gives this offense another dimension and another dimension for North Texas to fail at defending.

pick and write up due back shortly

Take Indiana +3 3-Dime Play
If there were ever two teams that mirrored each other more in their rankings and the out comes of their game you tell me who they are. Both Indiana and Purdue are better than their records indicate. Indiana has faced a stronger schedule thus the lower rankings. They have faced both Penn State, Iowa State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin while Purdue has faced Mich St, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. No Penn State or Iowa yet on the conference schedule yet.

So what is the difference here? Well home field is a big advantage and the fact that Indiana is a dog I love it. This game should be pk if anything, but we have the dogs, and I love Indiana because Purdue has been plagued by turnovers all season long with 29. They are a league worst -14 in TO margin while Indiana is the opposite +11 this is probably the biggest difference between the two. As both teams lack a defense especially against the run the two are both dead last in the league in that category.

Not only does this team have the TO margin working for them, but they have revenge on their mind as they lost 62-10 a year ago. So they got home field, under dog, stronger schedule and revenge on their side tonight I'll take those odds any time.

Take Uconn +7 @ -120 buy 1/2 point to 7 points at BODOG
I'm going with Uconn here to be honest I'm fine taking it at 6, but when the line jumped up to 6.5 in some places I always have to take that 1/2 point for insurance I'll pay the 10 cents.

Now onto the game, Uconn is 4-5 and still wants to go bowling. This team has been very frustrated by tight losses this season. They have lost all 5 of their games by a total of 15 points. That's a total, and they were impressive in each one of them. Against Cinn, West Virginia and @ Pittsburgh they lost by 2, 4, and 3 points all three of these teams are better than Notre Dame. This will be the worst defense Uconn has faced all year the next closest is Baylor which Uconn beat @ Baylor 30-22 and we know how bad Baylor is.

Notre Dame's offense is a bit over rated as they have faced an average 67th ranked total offense, and I don't buy into it as their passing game is what moves the team and they have not faced a good passing defense all year. Uconn is not a good pass defense by any means, but they should be able to do enough offensively and defensively to be a factor in the 4th quarter and have a chance to win this game out right in my opinion. The closest defense comparable to Uconn that Notre Dame faced was Purdue which Notre Dame won 24-21 still would not be enough to cover the spread here. Uconn offensively closely mirrors Pitt, and USC in terms of ranks and Notre Dame gave up big numbers to those teams in losses.

Uconn should be able to run the ball with their 1-2 punch in Todman and Dixon both averaging more than 80 yards a game, but what many don't know is Uconn is a balanced offense for the first time in a long time. WR Marcus Easley has become a downfield playmaker and Zach Frazer the former Notre Dame QB will be highly motivated in this game.

Uconn is off a bye and has had the extra time to get healthy and prepare for this game so they can try to go bowling. Notre Dame is without another crictical part of this offense in TE Kyle Rudolph gone for the season.

write up due back

Take UNC +3.5 3-Dime Early Bird Special
I'm going with the Tarheels yet again on Saturday. In my opinion their may not be a better defense. They are physical up front and should give BC all they can eat as a one dimensional offense they should be worried. Dave Shinske still makes mistakes like a 25 year old and I've loved Boston College in several spots this year and have won, but no longer are they flying under the radar as an under dog. They should not even be favorites here, but the reason is UNC's offense is not good and BC is 6-0 at home. BC has faced the following teams at home this year, Central Mich, NC State, FSU, Wake Forest, Kent, and Northeastern none of which I am impressed about and all of which they should have beaten. North Carolina has already proven they can win on the road and you can't do that without a defense. They have straight up victories at Uconn and Virginia Tech. Whenever BC gets out rushed they lose, and UNC has the 9th ranked rush defense so get ready. While BC has their own great defense, but the 28th ranked rush defense has faced an average rushing attack ranked 68th. I look for UNC to be able to move the ball on the ground and Tyler Yates to come up with a nice little game as he did last week scoring 33 points off Miami. After all BC is beat up on defense and it has to effect this team sooner or later.

Take Central Mich -8.5 w/ Miami OH +10
We get Miami OH on a key number and Central Michigan far enough away from 10 if you feel the need to buy down an extra 1/2 point for -8 and +10.5 to avoid the push so be it, but I believe you will be fine.

Why Central Michigan?
Well first things first, I believe in this team and they had a tough non-conference schedule with all three games coming on the road against Boston College, Arizona, and Michigan State not one of those teams is anything to roll your eyes about all three of those teams are bowl worthy in their respective conferences, ACC, Pac-10, and Big 10. Ball State the MAC darlings a year ago lost much of their talent and have not been able to compete. Their non-conference opponents consist of New Hampshire, Army and Auburn. ust don't see how Ball State can play defense and score enough points in this one to make it a game. I didn't like the 14.5 points Vegas was giving us however as they have played better behind Sr. Tanner Justice who replaced redshirt Freshmen Kelly page. Even then then Justice and the passing game has passed for an average of 59.7 yards per game. This allows Central Michigan to concentrate on Miquale Lewis who is having another strong year, but when Central Mich gets up early as I expect them to it will turn the passing game where it may just be asking to get in trouble. Central Michigan fresh off a 5 turnover game and that was against a solid QB in Zach Maynard. Buffalo is last in the MAC in turnover margin and I don't expect them to win that here tonight either. Look for another huge game from Dan LeFevour on national TV. He has more to prove and wants to win the MAC. Central Mich have won all three of their road games in the MAC all to better teams in Bowling Green, Western Mich, and Buffalo.

Why Miami OH?
Arguably the toughest schedule in the MAC they have faced non-conference teams Kentucky, Boise State, and Cincinnati. Buffalo played Pitt and Gardner Webb. Miami OH has faced a much tougher road with average opponents in the 50's combined for both total offense and total defense. Much lower than Buffalo which has faced an average 63rd ranked defense and an average 71st ranked offense. That's not even counting Gardner Webb who we can't possibly rank considering they are not Div 1A team.

The story here is Miami's Zac Dysert who will look to bounce back from last weeks disaster. He is a shining star in the MAC and could take over next year as the best QB when LeFevour leaves for the NFL. In just 8 starts he ranks third among the conference QBs with 2,417 yards passing. While they lost a tough game to Bowling Green last week it was mostly because of the turnovers as this team got off to a 14-0 lead once it came unraveled it really came unraveled. Look for the Red Hawks to bounce back against a Buffalo team that is licking it's wounds. Buffalo just can't win the close games. Zach Maynard is one of the better QBs in the conference Miami OH 33rd ranked pass defense will be up to the task at hand. I don't know if Buffalo's secondary can stop Dysert who got picked apart late and did not look good against Ohio a team that is more known for its running. A tough loss at home for Buffalo now has to go on the road to Miami OH. If they win here they won't be winning by more than 10 that's for sure.

Take East Carolina +4 (4-Dime NCAAF POD)
I'm going with the Pirates here on Sunday. They have had 2 extra days to prepare and should be fresh for this game off their tough loss to Va Tech where they lost 16-3 after turning the ball over 3 times. This game should be a bit different as the key to the game for the Pirates is their Sr. QB Pinkney is 3-0 when they face a pass defense not ranked inside the 100 in the nation. Well look what we have here on Sunday Tulsa ranked 111th. They are ranked 36th against the rush, but they have faced an average 82nd ranked rushing offense. I look for East Carolina to have a major advantage up front on both sides of the ball but first on offense. The Pirates have scored 12 rushing TDs in their last 5 games after just 5 in their first four games. Dominique Lindsay is a beast averaging 5.7 yards per carry with 639 yards on the season after missing two games and back ups Jackson and Ruffin have some pop as well. I really like this match up even though they are on the road as Pinkney will have a big game throwing the ball to his target Harris. Tulsa has faced three offenses ranked in the top 60 in rushing the ball and the result were all losses. They started the season allowing not a single opponent of the first 6 to score a rushing TD but now there have been 4 in the last 3 games. East Carolina has faced tougher defenses all year long and it pays off here tonight as they get the much needed win to clinch another bowl birth.

On the other side of the ball Tulsa will have to face a defense that has dominated the C-USA. DE CJ Wilson will dominate Tulsa's offensive line which has allowed more sacks than all other schools but three this year. Tulsa QB Kinne will struggle to find his other receivers and turnovers will happen. His one target Damaris Johnson will be double covered all night long forcing Kinne to force throws. Before their 45 points against Houston which is awful defensively by the way Tulsa averaged just 21 points in their previous 4 games.

Bottom line I'm going with the better defense and the better running game in this game. I feel fortunate to be catching points in this match up. I don't think Tulsa rebounds here on Sunday from their devastating loss against Houston. I'm not sure how resilient they are but East Carolina smells the 4 teams 1 game behind them and needs a win just as bad.

Take Georgia -4 (4-Dime POD RU)(1-5scale) -105 @ BODOG
I'm going with the Bulldogs on Saturday despite their struggles they will get a nice boost when A.J. Green returns the lineup on Saturday. To me Auburn is still under rated and I said that in one of my bigger games of the year when I took Arkansas at home over Auburn and Auburn took care of business 44-23. Actually Auburn has only played 3 games on the road and this one being their 4th they lack the experience to win a big time game here on Saturday. They also lost @ LSU 10-31. Georgia played LSU too and lost by just a TD and were out gained by 100 less yards than Auburn.

The strength of schedule that Georgia has faced compared to Auburn is miles away in terms of what kind of defenses Georgia has had to go up against. An average 32nd ranked total defense compared to auburn's 50th ranked. While Auburn was off playing Furman, Ball State, and La Tech in non-conference play Georgia were being men in games against Oklahoma State and Arizona State from the Big 12 and Pac-10. Either way that's just a small sample, but Georgia which has better defensive rankings to begin with has also faced better offenses an average 59th ranked opponent to Auburn's 67th. Along with that Georgia also gets their best player back and home field advantage on their side against a team that has struggled on the road.

Auburn may lead the SEC in yards and second in scoring but most of them came against Ball State and Furman. They really are not as good as a 7-3 team. Take those two wins out and send them to play a Pac-10 and Big 12 team they could be sitting at 6-4 or 5-5 easily. However, I'll take it because Vegas is giving us less than a TD in a game where the better team will win. Not only does Georgia have that on their side they also have the fact that they need a win here to get into a bowl and Auburn does not. Georgia leads the SEC in fewest sacks allowed with just nine this year. So try again Auburn if you think you'll get to Cox pretty much their biggest defensive advantage.

The X-factor! Auburn has struggled in punt returns as they have had five returners and 4 have fumbled. This will be a huge advantage all day for Georgia if they have to kick because they have the nations best Punter and it's not even close. Drew Butler's 49.2 yard average on 40 punts leads the nation by almost 4 yards.

Take Tulane +3 (5-DIME NCAAF POD)(1-5 SCALE)
This is Rice's best shot at winning a game this year, but you won't know it at all as they are going to lose this game to a Tulane team that's 3-6 and not much better, but the coach is selling a 6-6 and a chance at a bowl bid. I'm buying what he's selling on Saturday and I think it's an awful match up for Rice unfortunately. This will be the worst offense and worst defense that Tulane has faced all year. They have had a strong schedule and what Rice does well is pass the ball and even there they are ranked 67th in the country and that was against an average 79th ranked opponent. Saturday they will face Tulane's C-USA leading pass defense that is ranked 51st in the nation. They have surely been tested facing an average opponent ranked 57th. Rices defense is yielding almost 44 points a game and Tulane should be able to move the ball as they have continued to improve throughout the year.

QB Ryan Griffin will make his fourth start. He had his most impressive start in his last game throwing for four touchdowns and no picks against UTEP in a come back win. This was a nice win for Tulane and should create all the momentum going into this game against a very bad Rice team. Tulane has the best players on the field with RB Andre Anderson getting the carries and WR Jeremy Williams. Coach Bob Toledo is supporting his team going for the chance to win out, and is not under estimating a winless Rice team considering they got romped a year ago 42-17. However, he said, "We were so beat up by then and we had lost Andre in the first quarter, they were a different football team we're a different football team."

I look for Tulane with the right attitude of wanting to win 3 more in a row and to get the revenge against a Rice team they should handle. Tulane can move the ball through the air or on the ground against this team. These teams have only one real common opponent and it was both home games against Tulsa. Both teams lost, while Rice was out gained by 194 yards, Tulane was only out gained by 48.

Again the strength of schedule and the offenses that Tulane have faced will help them in this game against a Rice team ranked 112th in total offense and their ability to use their strength to shut down the only thing Rice does well which is pass the ball.

Take UNC +3.5 (3.5 Dime oddsline error)
The wrong team is favored here. Did anyone pay attention to what North Carolina did against VA Tech. The same VA Tech took care of Miami 31-7 and out gained them by 161 yards. Well UNC won @ Va Tech 20-17 and were +56 yards in the game. That's just one game of course, but UNC has probably the best well rounded defense in the nation and clearly will be Miami's most challenging task all season in my opinion. They are ranked 5th in total defense, 5th against the pass, 8th against the run and 11th in scoring defense. The best defense Miami faced was Va Tech and we saw their struggles in that game. With this game being on the road against UNC I love the dog here. Yes UNC's offense has not been real effective all year long, but I can see Yates stepping up to make some big plays in this game. Either way this game should go down to the last seconds, and in the end I'm taking DE Robert Quinn and that nasty defense to hole Miami to season lows and win the game outright.

bonus

Take Illinois -3.5 (3-Dime EB Special) 1-5 scale
I'm going with Illinois to continue their surge and make a bid for a bowl bid by the end of the year. Illinois has one of the more talented teams around, but had gotten off to a dreadful start. I took them a couple times I paid once and cashed in another spot. Here it's my favorite spot for them hosting Illinois. It has not been an easy schedule for Illinois thus far and now they finally can breathe a bit at home against Northwestern a team that is just asking for a let down here on Saturday off their first upste of a top 5 ranked team in 50+ years when they took down Iowa last week. Although they got some help when they knocked Ricky Stanzi out of the game.

Why Illinois?
Well as I mentioned before they have been victim of a tough schedule they really have not had the advantage of playing MAC teams like Northwestern. Northwestern has looked awful against even those such as Miami OH. However what makes me like this the best is the way Illinois is playing in their last two games. They also have faced an average offensive attack ranked 59th which is nothing to brag home about but playing the Big 10 that is a solid opponent. Just compare it to Northwestern's average opponent ranked 76th. That just shows me Illinois has had the stronger schedule. In a recent win over Minnesota on the road Illinois out gained them by 80 yards and that game could had been much worse as they surrendered 22 points late. On the other hand Northwestern got clobbered by Minnesota at home 24-35 just a sign of the talent that is on Illinois team if and when they can put it together.

How will Illinois win?
Running the ball. Illinois ranked 25th in the nation at running the ball will have room to be optimistic despite facing the 33rd ranked rush defense. That is a little bit of a fraud rank as Northwestern has faced an average rushing attack ranked 88th. Illinois is running the ball better than they ever have before with Sophmores Jason Ford and Mikel Leshoure both are big boys and bruisers in the backfield. At QB Juice Williams will start, but the reigns will be turned over to freshmen Jacob Charest who in relief of Williams threw for 185 yards and a TD on 10-19. He's 6-4 and a 220lb he has a live arm and has the ability to utitlize the talent and depth of receivers on this team allowing them to throw on Northwestern's suspect secondary.

Defense!!
Yes Illinois has woken up finally! They produced just seven sacks in its first seven games, but now posted four sacks against Michigan and then seven against Minnesota. I think DT Josh Brent and DE Clay Nurse will give Northwestern's line and Mike Kafka who is not as mobile as he normally is with his hamstring issue a lot of issues! Illinois wins by 10+ in this spot in my opinion.

Take Clemson -8 @ -104 3-Dime EB Special Bonus
I'm going with Clemson in this game they are maybe the hottest team in the ACC right now, winning four in a row. The defense has been great and RB C.J. Spiller is allover the place. QB Kyle Parker also has throw 7 TD in last two games against FSU and Miami. I look for him to have another big game here against the Wolfpack which is really banged up and they have given up at least 30 points in their last six games. Don't forget WR Jacoby Ford, he also will be too much for this defense. Coach Swinney has challenged his team saying that they have yet to go on the road and play a complete game. With that challenge out there I think it will be enough motivation for a 10+ point win. Clemson has faced far better offensive attack this year and their defense is ranked 12th in the nation. NC State has similar games against Boston College where thye lost 20-52 and were -86 total yards while Clemson whooped BC 25-7 and were +199 yards. Another common opponent Wake Forest was a loss for NC State 24-30, while Clemson handled them 38-3 and were +204 yards. Clearly the better team and I don't think they will lose focus or anything. The last two meetings @ NC State Clemson has out scored the Wolfpack 73-30.

Take Cincinnati -9.5 @ -109 (4-Dime POD) (1-5 scale)
I'm going with Cincinnati here and I'm taking the points. Just two weeks ago South Florida's offense was able to move the ball with a similar QB in BJ Daniels all over West Virginia. Daniels can pass and throw, and Zach Collaros who has come in for Pike and is likely to start for one more week is a more polished version of Daniels. Collaros is the reigning Big East player of the week after breaking a Big East conference record with 555 yards of total offense in a win over Uconn a pretty good defense to boot.

Now West Virginia had not faced a solid offense all year or even close to what Cincinnati can do. The only team close is Auburn and West Virginia lost by 11 on the road, but Cinci's defense is much better than Auburn in my opinion. West Virginia has faced an average offense ranked 79.5 and and average 83rd passing attack and their defense is only 60th against the pass? Wow they are in for a rude awakening and I think they know it as Cincinnati has weapons all over the field in Gilyard, Binns, and D.J. Woods. The ground game is even working as of late with Collaros behind center running a bit as well as Isaiah Pead and Jacob Ramsey getting big plays. Cincinnati has faced a much stronger schedule thus far in terms of offenses and defenses that they have faced. Cincinnati's opponents average total defense ranked 58th in the nation compared to West Virginia's 72nd. Cincinnati's opponents average total offense ranked 63rd compared to West Virginia's 79.5th. I mean no matter how you spin in Cincinnati has the better team and the only weakness for Cinci all year long has been the rushing defense.

However, they've only been burnt when they were up big and teams decided still to run so the defense was not playing the run. Cincinnati should be able to stack the box against Devine regardless and he's coming off an ankle injury which is the worst for RB's so if he's a big ? on Friday I mean he's playing, but who knows what you get from him and that's the key to West Virginia keeping this one close. I mean even their head coach doesn't know how they'll win this game stating, "Cincinnati is powerful, I don't know what we are going to do," -Bill Stewart.

Cincinnati also has plenty of revenge and motivation as they want to continue to be undefeated and move up in the polls along with the fact that they have never won at home against West Virginia. They did win last year in OT 26-23 in West Virginia, but the revenge and the point to prove at home on a Friday night. Finally common opponents a small piece of the puzzle in handicapping and changes all the time. Louisville, South Florida, and Uconn. Each one of these games was played at the same place Louisville and Uconn both traveled to Cincinnati and WV, while Cinn and WV visited South Florida. Cincinnati went 3-0 and WV wen 2-1 losing to South Florida, but against Louisville they were outgained by 28 yards while Cinn was +193 yards. Even against Uconn Cinn was +249 while WV was -114. Against South Florida Cinn was +25 while WV again was -98. That just proves the major difference between these two teams.

Wait Fred West Virginia is 53-3 when winning the turnover battle over the last seven years. Hmmm nice try, Cincinnati never turns the ball over they have yet to lose a fumble and have just 4 interceptions and they are 3rd in the nation in turnover margin.

Take Rutgers -2 @ -110 (4.5 Dime POD)1-5 scale
I love Rutgers here tonight, and I have a lot of respect for their head coach and how he progresses as the season goes along. The story here to me is Rutgers ability to force turnovers and their ability not to turn the ball over. Last year they forced South Florida to throw three picks and three fumbles in a 49-16 victory. South Florida comes surging in after a Friday night victory over West Virginia. Make no mistake we had a POD selection on that game and I have a lot of respect for South Florida, but just not on the road with their freshmen QB B.J. Daniels he will have his hands filled with different blitz schemes and a 100 yard running game will not be there for the taking as the Scarlet Knights are very buttoned up on defense and ranked 26th against the run. The pressure Daniels will see from George Johnson, Silvestro, and Freeny and the occasion of D'Imperio will be too much and they will force their turnovers. After all Rutgers leads the nation in turnover margin they have forced 25 and they have given up just 7.

Now Rutgers has a freshmen of their own in Savage. He tends to hold onto the ball too long, but he still does not throw the interception he'll take the sack which I won't be surprised to see here tonight. But I'd rather have him take the sack then throw the interception and that takes serious maturity as a QB to do. That is why they are 2nd in the Big East in sacks allowed. Despite having a very big offensive line and one of the best on their line they give up sacks because Savage would rather take the sack then throw the interception. However, like in years past this offense is coming together the 87th rank should not fool you at all. They are stacked at WR and RB. I think they can get the running game going against South Florida and to do so they have 3 guys who have different styles in 235 lb bruise Joe Martinek to run up the middle along with Jourdan Brooks and electrifying freshmen De'Antwan Williams on the outside. Let's talk receivers they have depth and guys to stretch the field in Tim Brown the 5'8 150 lb receiver can not be stopped by South Florida. He's small but one of the fastest guys in the country and he's become Savage's favorite target along with stand out freshmen Sanu. Also coming along is a freshmen from my home town and played in my flag football league last year Mark Harrison. Harrison is a big guy with good speed 6'3 and 230 he's a physical guy and a nice compliment to Sanu. Harrison caught his first TD a week ago for 20 yards. Bottom line they have compliments on offense everything you want to see. A big offensive line, a QB who is accurate and tall and does not make mistakes, a fast receiver to stretch the field and open up the running game, a tall possession receiver in Sanu, and a solid running game with several backs who have different unique abilities.

South Florida has always struggled on the road in the North East and tonight will be the same with Daniels intimidated by the pass rush in colder conditions than he's used to.

Take Rutgers -2 @ -110 (4.5 Dime POD)1-5 scale
I love Rutgers here tonight, and I have a lot of respect for their head coach and how he progresses as the season goes along. The story here to me is Rutgers ability to force turnovers and their ability not to turn the ball over. Last year they forced South Florida to throw three picks and three fumbles in a 49-16 victory. South Florida comes surging in after a Friday night victory over West Virginia. Make no mistake we had a POD selection on that game and I have a lot of respect for South Florida, but just not on the road with their freshmen QB B.J. Daniels he will have his hands filled with different blitz schemes and a 100 yard running game will not be there for the taking as the Scarlet Knights are very buttoned up on defense and ranked 26th against the run. The pressure Daniels will see from George Johnson, Silvestro, and Freeny and the occasion of D'Imperio will be too much and they will force their turnovers. After all Rutgers leads the nation in turnover margin they have forced 25 and they have given up just 7.

Now Rutgers has a freshmen of their own in Savage. He tends to hold onto the ball too long, but he still does not throw the interception he'll take the sack which I won't be surprised to see here tonight. But I'd rather have him take the sack then throw the interception and that takes serious maturity as a QB to do. That is why they are 2nd in the Big East in sacks allowed. Despite having a very big offensive line and one of the best on their line they give up sacks because Savage would rather take the sack then throw the interception. However, like in years past this offense is coming together the 87th rank should not fool you at all. They are stacked at WR and RB. I think they can get the running game going against South Florida and to do so they have 3 guys who have different styles in 235 lb bruise Joe Martinek to run up the middle along with Jourdan Brooks and electrifying freshmen De'Antwan Williams on the outside. Let's talk receivers they have depth and guys to stretch the field in Tim Brown the 5'8 150 lb receiver can not be stopped by South Florida. He's small but one of the fastest guys in the country and he's become Savage's favorite target along with stand out freshmen Sanu. Also coming along is a freshmen from my home town and played in my flag football league last year Mark Harrison. Harrison is a big guy with good speed 6'3 and 230 he's a physical guy and a nice compliment to Sanu. Harrison caught his first TD a week ago for 20 yards. Bottom line they have compliments on offense everything you want to see. A big offensive line, a QB who is accurate and tall and does not make mistakes, a fast receiver to stretch the field and open up the running game, a tall possession receiver in Sanu, and a solid running game with several backs who have different unique abilities.

South Florida has always struggled on the road in the North East and tonight will be the same with Daniels intimidated by the pass rush in colder conditions than he's used to.

Take Ohio +1.5 (3.3 Dime Play 1-5 scale)
No POD mark on this play, but it is a strong opinion as I think Ohio is the better team. Two common opponents of Akron and Bowling Green. Ohio went on the road to beat both these teams 19-7 against Akron, and 44-37 against Bowling Green while Buff lost @ home to Bowling Green last weekend and barely beat Akron 21-17 @ home last week.

The story in this one is that Zach Maynard the starting QB and WR T. Jackson are suspended for the first quarter. This is the opportunity where Ohio has to stop the run and load the box and get an early lead possibly by forcing turnovers. This defense is solid against the pass but has proven to be a little soft against the run. The key for Ohio is to stop the run in a game they must have. I have found it possible for teams to do this in must win situations where the defensive front just holds the advantage of wanting it more. This will be the case here tonight as Ohio also has an extra 3 days rest compared to Buffalo and they have another 9 days off after this. They are already bowl eligible but are fighting for more.

Buffallo faced Temple although on the road with similar rankings on offense and defense, and were crushed 37-13 they are the closest example I could find to what Ohio posesses the only difference is Temple slightly better at running the ball, but Ohio had to go up against the likes of Tenn and Uconn where they were -354 yards rushing both are solid running teams and top flight run stopping teams. Speaking of Ohio's road trip to Tenn it's the only road game they lost as they are 4-1 ATS on the road this year and when they visited Tenn they lost by just 11. This offense can put up points at times and QB Sr. Theo Scott has been brilliant at times, but has also had some questionable games. The extra time off has given Ohio the ability to add some new wrinkles to the spread offense specifically in short goal line situations where they have had problems. Buffalo's defense is prone to giving up yards in the passing game as was the case when Bowling Green battled back. There will be opportunities for Ohio to score here tonight. If Ohio can shut down the run that has a lot of injuries for Buffalo but has depth than they should have this game won setting up a battle with Northern Illinois in 9 days.

Bottom line Buffalo has struggled all year to put up points 89th in the nation facing an average 58th scoring defense tonight they face 30th ranked and they have struggled stopping opponents from scoring ranked 77th in scoring defense themselves. Two ingredients that I like in this match up along with two key players being out for the 1st quarter.

[b]Take LA Monroe -1 4.5 DIME POD[/b]
I'm going with another Sun Belt surprise with LA Monroe to take care of the Mean green who are a Monet, not what they appear after last weeks 68-49 win over Western Kentucky. At times the offense has been able to score, but Western Kentucky is ranked 108th in offense and 120th on defense. This team does not compare to LA Monroe a team that played right with the top teams of the conference. @ Troy the Warhawks were out gained by just 32 yards while North Texas also at Troy were out gained by 302 yards. It's good that the Mean Green were able to take some of their frustration out last week, but it will be a different going up against the Warhawks who are ranked 50th in offense and 64th in defense including 16th against the run. North Texas can't play defense, and LA Monroe can. Actually LA Monroe out gained Kentucky @ Kentucky a few weeks back by 47 points. Vegas is over exaggerating the line based on 68 points North Texas put up. Take the small road chalk and roll with another POD winner.

Take Alabama -7 buy 1/2 point if you have to
The LSU team and offense are overrated. This may be the most athletic team Alabama has faced, but that does not mean much to me. I think Alabama is a far superior team than LSU and their offense really is not that good. Why is this just a TD, for one Tenn nearly beat Alabama and their struggles in the red zone continue, but their defense continues to dominate. If it was not for a late turnover Tenn would have won 12-3, but the good sign is that Alabama is off a bye and Jones is coming off his best game with 7 catches which should open things up for the Alabama offense that will have 2 weeks to prepare for this game. I'm taking the Alabama Crimson Tide in a 2 TD winner!

Take Oregon +3.5 3-Dime play
This is not the sexy pick, but Oregon is the play here once again USC's shut down defense has looked troublesome as of late, but suddenly they have looked vulnerable. They let Notre Dame look like hte best team in the country in the 4th quarter, and Oregon STate totaled 482 yards a week ago. USC really struggles with mobile QB's and Jeremy Massoli should and will have a big game running the ball. I expect a game down to the wire, but it will be defensive, and I expect Oregon to be able to run the ball enough to win this game out right and finally take the reigns of the Pac-10!

Take Wash State +28 -120 Buy 1/2 Point 3.5 dime Play
Like I said last weekend I'll continue to fade Notre Dame until proven otherwise this team is the most over rated team in football in my opinion. Charlie Weis is a shit coach and is bad as a coach as he is taking care of his body.. joking of course. But in reality the PAC-10 is much better than the Big Ten the opponents that Notre Dame has been facing. Pete Carrol has been quoted stating that the Pac-10 is the best it has been since he's been at USC. yes this is the last placed team... BUT They are battle tested and have faced better defenses than Notre Dame has faced, and much better defenses than Notre Dame itself. With that said Notre Dame has no business being a 4TD favorite at a neutral field in my opinion. Washington STate may be one of the worst teams in the league but you wont notice on Saturday as they have a lot to play for in this situation. QB Jeff Tuel looked sharp a week ago throwing for 354 yards against CAl a much better pass defense than Notre Dame ranked 117th. With that said Wash State's only bright spot matches Notre Dames weakness. Take the 4TDs

write up to come

[b]Take FAU -2.5 (3.5 Dime OE play)[/b]
I'm going with FAU for the third week in a row, the first time we had them as a POD, last week we gave you them as dogs in 20 point easy win as a free pick. This week it's our oddsmaker Error as Vegas is still not giving this team respect despite the 2-1 record inside the Sun Belt. The 2-4 record on the season has many worried, but this team has cleaned up its act and early season trouble all the way to being the 11th overall offense in the nation. This team struggled with turn overs, and penalties especially in the red zone which cost them points. They won the last two weeks on the road and now they return home to look to show their home fans just what kind of a different team they have become.

They will play MTSU which has solid offensive ranks and should be able to move the ball against FAU's improving defense, but then again they have not played any strong defense, as they have an average ranked defense opponent at 83. Defensively MTSU has struggled too so I expect them to have their hands full with the red hot FAU team. This reminds me of a game where MTSU visited Troy earlier this year. FAU now has similar ranks that Troy has offensively and defense that game resulted in a loss @ Troy 7-31. Look FAU to continue to improve on defense and for their offense to keep picking up the steam. They have well over 1100 yards in the last two games and Alfred Morris is coming off his career best 181 yards. Rusty Smith is red hot as well and a NFL prospect to boot! Take the red hot Owls to continue!

writeup after

Take South Florida +3.5 (3.5 Dime POD)
I'm going with South Florida which may surprise a few people considering South Florida got exposed the last two games in the Big East after opening up 5-0 on the season with two straight losses to Pitt and Cinci. While I do think West Virginia fits into the top 3 teams in the Big East along with Pitt and Cinci they are a distant third. I don't see the balanced attack as they are ranked 47th in passing, but they have faced an average 70th ranked pass defense. Tonight they'll face South Florida's 25th ranked passing defense. In the last two games where South Florida got beat they faced the 10th and 57th ranked passing offense, but I think Pitt is much more balanced than West Virginia as Stull is well under rated at QB for Pitt. South Florida has the speed on defense to stop Noel Devine as they have in the past and George Selvie will spend a lot of time in the backfield on Friday night. It's a home game that is a tough environment to play in for West Virginia. Their pass defense will leave the door open for red shirt freshmen B.J. Daniels to come back with a strong effort. As they played 43rd and 54th ranked pass defense on Friday night they will face the 88th ranked pass defense that has played against bad passing attacks ranked 74th. I think South Florida should be able to move the ball enough to get the points they need to cover the spread and win this game outright. If Uconn's Cody Endres can throw for 378 yard I think B.J. Daniels can have a successful night as well.

Believe it or not it appears the strength of schedule is on South Florida's side they have played much tougher offenses an overall average rank of 58th, and their defense ranks 27th overall while West Virginia has benefited from facing an overall 76th ranked offense and has the 36th ranked defense. While their rushing defense is solid they have been exposed in the air particularly on crossing routes. Both teams won in similar fashion @ Syracuse 34-13 for West Virginia and 34-20 for South Florida. Again I just see these two teams as very close to even. The key will be to have a spy on Noel Devine because he changed the game against Uconn with a 177 yards in the second half last week to give them the 28-24 win. South Florida has stopped him before and I think they'll keep him under tap enough to get stops on defense. Thus being at home for South florida on a Friday night will hold a major advantage in my eyes.

Take ECU -4 (3-Dime play)(1-5 scale)
The only bright spot going for Memphis is their half back Curtis Steele. Unfortunately he'll face a rush defense ranked 29th. Although ECU's rush defense is a little over valued as they have played an average 78th rushing attack they still have been solid inside C-USA play and have a pretty good rushing attack themselves. If HB Dominique Lindsay who is questionable with an ankle can go I am very confident in ECU's ability to run the ball better than Memphis. The reason is the defensive line for ECU is far better than Memphis defensive line. Both teams possess a veteran offensive line, but the difference maker in this game will be the defensive line.

Memphis and ECU have had two common opponents UCF and Marshall. ECU beat both teams while Memphis lost to both and were out gained on the ground by a total of 318 yards, while ECU out gained UCF by 40 and were out gained by just 24 in a win over Marshall. ECU is the better team and although I normally like the under dogs in games like this one I feel that ECU found it's confidence and has all the momentum after their last win against Rice. ECU has one of the more talented front seven's in C-USA with C.J. Wilson on the outside and Joseph and Ross on the inside. Most of Steele's 371 rushing yards came against a UTEP team ranked 112th in rush defense. Steele is good, but Lindsay is not that far off and ECU has the better defensive line that will make the difference.

Another major advantage which will be the X-factor in this game is special teams. ECU has a distinct advantage here. Memphis gave up 33 yards per kick return and 26.5 per punt return and a TD last week. They rank near the bottom of the league in most special teams categories, 8th in kick coverage, 11th in kick returns and 12th in punt returns. There are just six teams in the nation with a lower punt return average than Memphis. While ECU on the other side had Dwayne Harris take one back for the 2nd straight week, and their punter Dodge is 13th in the nation in punt yardage and the coverage units have done a nice job. This should tilt the field in ECU's favor all night.

Another stat is ECU's ability to create turnovers as their secondary has 10 turnovers to Memphis' 6. They have some special coverages designed for the Tigers tall receivers and should make the changes needed in the extra time off that has burned them for giving up long passes in the passing game. ECU's pass defense is better than they are getting credit for. Actually the Pirates have scored 44 non-offensive TD's since 99 which ranks 15th in the nation. What else is very impressive is this defense is 10th nationally with 17 forced turnovers this season and they have held their opponents in the last two games to a 26.9% third down success rate. Both SMU and Rice could not convert on a third down of more than five yards. If they can stop Steele on first down this is the advantage ECU will have over Memphis and an inexperienced QB in Hodge who is their 3rd QB this year.

Take South Carolina -13 (4-Dime POD)(1-5 scale)
Going with the Gamecocks for lots of reasons. Did you see the way their defense has played against Alabama, and against Mississippi? Well this team is good and you can't pass off them, which is a huge problem for Vanderbilt anyway who has transitioned to the spread offense which will leave standout DE Eric Norwood licking his chops to get back in the backfield. Expect a big game for the All-American as he has been held in check the last few weeks. What will help Norwood even more is Vandy's tackle Thomas Welch is out with a bummed ankle. I expect South Carolina to get a lot of three and outs as they look to revenge their recent history with Vanderbilt that has seen them lose twice. However, this is a Vanderbilt team that loss at home to Miss State?

I mentioned the two game win streak for Vanerbilt and it comes down to two things. Turnovers, USC turned the ball over 7 times in the last couple of years, but this team has only committed 9 TO's in 8 games. I really like what Stephen Garcia has brought to the table this year and although he'll be missing his WR Moe Brown he has a collective group of tall receivers that will have a distinct size advantage against the Commodores. Their three starters average the height of 6 foot 4. The issue for Vanderbilt has been red zone production and it won't improve against a good defensive team here on Saturday on the road. Vanderbilt is scoring just 68% of the time they get into the end zone and only 40% result in TD's That means that 60% of the time they get inside the 20 they leave with 0-3 points. This is way down from last season's 66% TD rate and 89% scoring rate.

Bottom line South Carolina will dominate time of possession and play solid defense winning this game by 17+ as Vanderbilt has lost the time of possession battle by 7 minutes per game.

Take Tennessee +14.5 -105 (4.5 Dime POD) (1-5scale)
Very close to a 5-dime play this weekend, but we'll go with the 4.5Dime play. I really like this play a lot as 69% of the public is backing Alabama at home and the line that opened at -16 has moved down to 14.5. First of all I still have not been impressed with Alabama's offense behind Mark Ingram. There is going to be a game where they are going to have to prove that they can throw the ball and I think this might be that game. They have faced an average 62nd ranked defensive attack Alabama has. That includes an average rush defense of 86th which has gotten them their 9th nation rushing offense rank. Don't get me wrong this offensive line and running game is as good as they come, but let's not get carried away that your QB is still going to have to win games and I like McElroy, but just not here against Tennessee off a bye. You give Monte Kiffin an extra week to prepare defensively he's going to come with an attack that will create problems.

The defense of Tennesse has been great, and in their last game the offense exploded against a good Georgia team. In my opinion Tennessee has had a much tougher schedule and have played better defenses and should be able to move the ball better than South Carolina and Mississippi did the last two weeks. Tenn comes in with the 48th ranked offense, better rankings than both South Carolina and Miss who really played fine defensive games against Alabama and really stayed in the game despite losing by 2 TD in each. I really like Tenn to do what both those teams could not and this game should be decided by a TD or a Field Goal in my opinion.

The key to the game. It's easy to say this is the key to the game because Alabama's pass rush is the best in the country and Tennessee has done a great job protecting their QB Crompton. If they can continue the momentum they had against Georgia they could get the upset and crush Alabama's national championship dreams. Crompton has really come alive with 200+ yards passing in each of his last three games including 8TD and 2 INT. Look for Tennessee to have a game plan for Ingram as they are ranked 32nd in rush defense and third in the SEC while Alabama is ranked 9th and 3rd in the SEC in rushing offense, but as I mentioned Alabama has faced nobody that can stop the run like Tennessee can. Here are the numbers in terms of defensive rushing ranks nationally for Alabama opponents, 76, 116, 96, 69, 102, 72, 74. A defensive game is what this will be and more than 2 TDs is just way too much to give a solid defense coming off the bye trying to make statements under first year head coach Lane Kiffin and his father an all time great defensive coordinator in Monte Kiffin.

[b]Take Boston College +7.5 (4-Dimes)(1-5 scale)[/b]
I'm going with Boston College as Notre Dame continues to impressed me time and time again. They will get a little bit of a break here against a team that on the season does not have the best offensive ranks and Notre Dame has faced some top notch offenses or at least made them look that way. However, BC is very solid defensively and this could be a different type of game for Notre Dame as Boston College seems to be coming alive at the right time.

BC will look to run on the Irish behind Montel Harris who is coming off a record breaking 264 yards and 5 TD effort against a defense that had been ranked 14th against the run in NC State mind you. Now he'll go up against the Irish who are ranked 64th. Expect BC to play keep away all day long with their balanced offense. I expect Shinskie to have a big game with the balanced attack mainly because every QB has had a big day against Notre Dame and now that he has developed a chemistry with WR Colin Larmond BC's offense is not weak any longer and they proved that last week against NC State when they won 53-20. We enjoyed Boston College last week as our POD runner up and we'll enjoy them one more time as we look to go a perfect 3-0 fading the Irish this year!

I understand this will be the best passing offense Boston College has faced Claussen is just very efficient and he is the MVP of this team. However, this is the 2nd best defense Notre Dame has faced (USC being the first). BC has faced three Top 27 passing offense attacks and in all three BC came out with victories and I expect something similar on Saturday from the Eagles as Notre Dame has had the luxury of facing very bad defenses especially in pass defense as the average opponent had an 81 pass defense.

Take Wake Fores +3 (3-Dime play)
Wake Forest got Navy on revenge in their bowl game last year and since trailing in their loss at half time last year 17-0 in the regular season Wake Forest have out scored Navy 46-26. The ability to stop the run really has not been their, but Wake has been able to give it back to Navy and this years Wake Forest teams is angry off a dissapointing loss to Clemson. Wake is a more balanced offense this year and will give Navy troubles in the passing game in my opinion. Skinner should have a good game against a defense that is used to facing an average passing offense ranked 82 in the country which explaines their 40th ranked pass defense. The only team they faced inside the top 64 was 16th ranked SMU who led 21-7 at half time last week, but failed as Navy won 38-35. I don't anticipate that to happen to Wake as they have more of a running game to run the clock out once they go up than SMU's 112th ranked rushing offense.

Bottom line Navy really has not faced much competition with an average 65th ranked defense, and a 83rd offense going up against them. Navy has gone three weeks without recording the sack and that has been Skinners problem having the time to find his receivers. Navy's inability to get to the passer will be the reason they fall. Skinner gets the ball to playmaking receivers Devon Brown and Marshall Williams, and Givens to win this game by 10 poins.

Take Minnesota +17 (2-Dime Play)(1-5 scale)
This is just plain and simple too many points for Ohio State who is just not very good offensively at all. I don't see how they can cover a point total this high and I suspect it's because many are feeling that they are going to take their frustrations out on the Gophers after last weeks debacle and loss against Purdue.

This Minnesota team was able to beat Purdue without a problem and Ohio State has gotten by offensively not playing very challenging defense thus far including an average defense that is ranked 71st in points allowed this season. Minnesota comes in at 60th and should be able to hold this team in check at least to cover the spread.

Take Georgia Tech -5.5 (2.5 Dime play) (1-5 scale)
Normally this is a classic let down game for a team like Georgia Tech coming off a huge win against Virginia Tech last week, but this is not the case as they remember very well that in the same situation last year they lost to Virginia. Georgia Tech will look to go on the road and win as favorites and I think they do so by a TD. The key has been Josh Nesbitt and this rushing offense featuring Dwyer, Allen, and Roddy Jones along with the very big and physical Damaryous Thomas catching the few passed thrown his way to keep any defense honest.

Virginia has made a nice run lately winning 3 in a row after opening 0-3. This is the team that lost to William and Mary, but now Al Groh has them back on track. I'm not buying it though because their last three opponents average offense is 90th combined and here they will now face the 31st ranked offense. So is this defense for Virginia as good as they have looked or a product of who they have played this season an average offense ranked at 65th? I'd say it's a little bit of both, but the weakness seems to be against the run and they will have their hands full at home against Georgia Tech. Virginia is definitely an improved team, but not enough to stay with Georgia Tech who has been getting it done on offense all year long against quality opponents. What is worst for Virginia is their 107th ranked offense they can't run and they can't pass and Jameel Sewell their QB has a banged up ankle and will be chased around by Morgan who has 7.5 sacks this year. Virginia is ranked 118th in the nation in sacks allowed.

Take North Carolina -2.5 (4-Dime POD)(1-5 scale)
I'll start by saying this 61% of the public over 45 sportsbooks combined are on Florida State which opened up at +2 and are now finding themselves at +2.5 and +3 in some places.

This match up comes down to UNC's defense vs. the offense of Florida State which is their passing game. This is the strength of the Tar Heels the pass defense ranked #1 in the nation. In FSU's defense the Tar heels have played an average passing attack ranked 90th. FSU on the other hand with a #13 ranked passing offense behind Christian Ponder have faced an average pass defense of 54th. Hands down this will be their most difficult game yet in my opinion because before this game they have not faced a passing defense that is this good with a solid defensive line led by two 300+lb interior linemen for the Tar Heels. Additionally UNC is led by DE Robert Quinn who already has 7 sacks this year and should create some troubles for Florida State's undersized offensive line. This team has had troubles int he past with large and physical defensive fronts and the same will be true tonight. Now if anything the one dimensional FSU offense is more of a fraud than the UNC's defense that has returned 9 starters from last year with a shut down secondary. I believe in this team and their coach, when they face the 84th ranked rushing offense. Despite my confidence in this match up I will dissect further.

FSU Defense vs. UNC's Offense
Well this story is similar as North Carolina's offense is last in the ACC and is anemic, but when you play defensive football and that's what you rely on you can get by on this, but they do have an 0-2 record and have performed worse in the ACC. You can admit that this team has faced some tough defensive teams, so I'm not sure if their 117th ranked offense is entirely accurate especially considering they have had many injuries along the offensive line. Good news UNC is coming off the bye and are going to get a couple of offensive lineman back here while on the other side of the ball FSU is just banged up without the possibility of defensive captain Dekoda Watson questionable for the Seminoles here tonight. I think the bye for Butch Davis will allow them to find enough holes in this terrible FSU defense that ranks 107th in the country. They should be able to find big holes in this secondary. Something that Boston College was able to do at home. BC is a similar team to UNC in the fact that they rely on defense and are poor on offense. Boston College along with Georgia Tech, and Miami all ACC teams put up significantly more yards than they averaged when they played UNC proving my point that this team will struggle again to win the game. GTech averages 427 put up 532, Miami 390 put up 476, BC 301 puts up 399. All three of the teams won and granted Gtech and Miami seem to be better than UNC it is debatable if BC is. UNC is 5-1-1 L7 off a bye week. Also note worthy is that this is the first ever Thursday night game at Chapell Hill the crowd and a dominant defense should spark this team to victory.

Take Tulsa -7 @ -120 buy 1/2 point (3-Dime play)(1-5 scale)
I'm going with Tulsa in this spot and I'll tell you why. For one everyone is making a huge deal about this game because UTEP beat Houston at home here in convincing fashion. Well there is a few things different here and I'm not buying into the hype on UTEP nor on Houston. Houston does not play defense they are ranked 111th overall, but more importantly they are ranked 115th against the run. Donald Buckram was amazing that day rushing for 262 yards making up for 42% of his rushing yards on the season. Actually 78% of his rushing yards have come in 3 games this year, Buffalo, Houston, and New Mexico State. The average rush defense from those three teams respectfully is 98th in the nation.

On Wednesday night they will face a rush defense ranked 32nd in the nation. Now for fairness they have only faced an average 75th rushing offense, but still against Boise State, and Oklahoma you have to be impressed with what this team has done on defense this year to stay in games. It does not stop there as they have an answer for the pass with the 42nd ranked passing defense. It has been proven in UTEP's losses that if they don't get out to a lead early they give up on the run. Against Memphis, Texas, and Kansas they fell behind early which led to Buckram's total 36 carries in the game. Why were these teams able to get out to the leads because their defense stopped the offense and it started with containing Buckram who was held to 135 yards rushing. I believe Tulsa can do this and with their offense I expect them to get a lead which could mean bad news for UTEP.

Tulsa will be going up against a defense that ranks 119th in the nation. Although they are much better than that as they have faced an average 43rd ranked offense you won't know it on Wednesday. Last year's meeting Tulsa was tied 28-28 against UTEP I remember this game because I had Tulsa. After that Tulsa started blitzing UTEP and they had no answer. It proves that Tulsa also has the better coach in Graham and despite UTEP having 4 extra days to prepare I'm still comfortable laying the TD. Tulsa is ranked 47th in total offense, but in my opinion has much to prove as they are much better than this facing two top 25 ranked defenses on their schedule thus far. They put up 77 points on this team last year and although I don't see quite a number Tulsa will be able to do much more with G.J. Kinne off his back as UTEP barely gets a pass rush. Expect the talented Johsnon receivers and Shelley to have a big game balanced with a Jamad Williams attack.

Take Florida Atlantic pk (5-Dime POD)
I wagered on this team earlier in the year and FAU came up short. I don't normally like to place my big play on a team that's 0-4, but I can not help it. For me this is hands down of anything else on the card this week!

Saturday we've got FAU who has not had trouble moving the ball at all this year as they have 384.5 yards per game, but they have struggled to turn those into points. They are ranked 110th in points scored, but they have faced some tough defenses and they finally get a bit of a break this week against North Texas. FAU has faced an average defensive rank of 48 in terms of points scored and that to me has been one of the bigger reasons why they have struggled. On Saturday night they will be facing the 107th defense in terms of points scored, and North Texas got this by facing an average offense that ranks 92nd in points scored. Oh and North Texas does not score they are ranked 94th.

FAU is obviously angry and sick and tired of losing as their coach Schnellenberger said they had more intensity and their pace was higher than usual. I look for RB Morris to have a big game against North Texas who is giving up 170.4 yards per game on the ground and they have gotten that average against some pretty poor offenses with an average rank of 73. FAU rushing will start to improve as they start to play some poor defenses and this will happen on Saturday, because FAU is used to seeing some top rush defenses actually the average rush defense is 35th. Look for FAU to be able to come with a balanced attack something they have not been able to do all year long.

North Texas is a bad team they have committed 11 turnovers in four games, and they really have not played a tough schedule in terms of the offenses they have faced with an average of a 94th rank in total offense. This week they will face an offense that has struggled to point points up but have a 59th ranked offense and have faced a 43rd ranked defense. FAU is better than their ranking suggests and I think North Texas although their rankings are already bad I fear that they are about to get worse when they get deeper in the conference. FAU is 5-0 against North Texas and beat them 46-13 last year.

Take Arizona -4 (3.5 Dime Play)(1-5 scale)
Arizona is coming off a very tough loss to Washington when a interception was taken back for a touch down off the foot of a receiver. Arizona had no business losing this game. Stanford went to Oregon State and lost big time and showed their weaknesses.

Arizona is now 2-10 in their last 12 road games and Arizona who was weak on offense is now able to move the ball since they started Nick Foles. I his two starts he has 6TD 2 interceptions but is completing 71.7% of his passes and has 737 yards. Stanford a team that was dominated by Oregon State will have to now face a team on the road in Arizona that beat Oregon State on the road. Arizona went into Oregon State and won 37-32 and are coming off an emotional loss. This team wants to make up for their last loss badly and in more ways have a better overall team. Arizona is ranked 31 in overall offense which considerably better than the offenses that Stanford has had to face (average 78th total offense opponent). Particularly Stanford has faced extremely weak running offenses until last week they have faced an average 95th rushing offense, and have just a 49th ranked rush defense. I think they get exposed here again on the ground as Arizona is ranked 25th in rushing offense with Grigsby, Antolin, and Nwoko running the ball. Grigsby is questionable for Saturday night, but I expect him to most likely play even if he doesn't Arizona is deep at the position.

Bottom line we saw how Stanford struggled on defense against a balanced offensive attack. That is exactly what Arizona possesses here with the emergence of Nick Foles and Stanford's glaring weak pass defense ranked 71st. Stanford is a run first team with Gerhart and ranked 13th overall. To get that ranking they faced an average rush defense of 74th. Look for Arizona to stop and force Stanford to pass with their 19th ranked rush defense.

Take Boston College -2.5 @-105 (4-Dime POD)(1-5 scale)
I'm going with BC despite how bad they looked against Virginia Tech. That's right Boston College will rebound from the bad beat last weekend. NC State had a worse game last week when they lost to Duke... Duke! Not a top 5 team like BC by the score of 49-28. The pass defense for NC State has been awful they have given up 10 TD passes in their last 3 games. David Shinskie simply can't be compared to the QB's that NC State has faced recently, but I'm not sure if you will be able to tell the difference on Saturday. I expect a balanced approach from BC in the running and passing game.

BC will be able to run the ball in my opinion better than many think against the NC State's fraudulent rush defense. They are ranked 4th in rush defense, but they have not faced any rushing offenses worth while with an average rush offense of 72nd. BC is used to facing teams with solid running defenses and I think they will be able to score enough off the balanced attack particularly in their passing game. Look for big days from Colin Larmond and Rich Gunnell. BC has a big offensive line that should be able to protect against NC Strength the defensive line. They are coming off a game where they had just 1 sack after compiling 16 the rest of the season and this was against Duke. Thaddeus Lewis had them for lunch going 40-50 throwing for 459 yards.

Boston College on defense is solid but you would not have known it last week. However, despite the tough loss BC is still ranked 38th overall and a balanced defense of 42nd against the pass and 46th against the rush. They should be able to shut down NC States rushing which is ranked 72nd forcing. NC State did not score on its final eight possessions and all this against Duke in their home building. BC is better than Duke and now NC State will be on the road!

Take Oklahoma +3.5 buy 1/2 point if you don't find 3.5! (4-Dime EB Special)
I have dominated the early games this year, and on Saturday we have another one in a great match up and I'm going with the Sooners over Texas. Say whatever you want about how this team beat Oklahoma last year by 10 points, but they would not have won if they did not get the kick return TD from Jordan Shipley. Special teams for Oklahoma is now flat out dominant and it won't happen again. Oklahoma is 3rd in punt return yards allowed with -0.4 yards per return and 19.53 yards per return on kicks. Texas looked absolutely awful against Colorado as they trailed midway through the third quarter until finally they rallied behind plays on special teams. It was a block punt and a punt return by Shipley that accounted for two touchdowns, and then a third return of 92 yards off an incerception by Earl Thomas. That was good for 21 of their 38 points. It will have it's hands full against Oklahoma that is #4 in sacks and is buttoned up on special teams. Oklahoma did have their issues last week when Bradford returned with 11 drops, but they had 592 yards and had to settle for 5 field goals. I believe with one game under his belt that Bradford will now be able to put the ball in the end zone with the help of his receivers who will now be used to seeing the ball coming out of his hand again.

Bottom line, Oklahoma has faced a very tough schedule. Actually compared to Texas they have faced a tougher offensive schedule and defensive schedule, and they have very close numbers on both sides which tells me that Oklahoma is the better team here. The biggest difference is Texas' offense has faced an average 81st ranked defense and Oklahoma is stout across the board 9th overall! Defensively Texas is ranked 4th, but they have played an average opponent of a 64th ranked total offense. This is obviously their biggest challenge, and I think they may not live up to expectations here.

Take Michigan State -13.5 (3-Dime Early Bird Special)
I'm going with the Spartans to keep on rolling over a Northwestern team that just is not that good. MSU is banged up a little bit at tailback, but I don't think it will factor because they are deep at half back that is for sure. Northwestern just can not move the ball. They are ranked 57th overall in offense, but they have faced an average 89th defense. Now they'll face a good defense that can stop the run and pass and I think they will be shut out in this game. On the other side of things Michigan State's offense is starting to click with a balanced attack and an overall offense that is ranked 28th. No matter who is in at QB whether it's Cousins or Nichol.

Take Rutgers +6 (2.5 Dime play)(1-5 scale)
I'm not sure what so much of the public saw against Uconn to make Pitt the over whelming pick here on Friday night when they visit Rutgers. They trailed 21-6 and came back to win 24-21 which was impressive, but against an anemic CT offense it just does not impress me as much.

Rutgers has just as much of a solid defense as Pitt. Although the quality opponent is not there for Rutgers through their first 5 games they are still facing 26th ranked passing offense, which should result in a good game against Pitt's QB Bill Stull. They have faced three top 35 passing offenses in their FBS schedule and although Rutgers is ranked 86th in pass defense that is why. Rutgers is averaging 3.6 sacks per game while Pitt is averaging 4 so it should be whichever offensive line that plays better will do the most damage in my opinion. Rutgers is ranked 7th in rush defense, but they have faced an average 82nd rushing offense so are they phony or do they just need the opportunity to face a good running team. Well we will find out tonight as they will have to stop Dion Lewis, the Big East leading rusher as a freshmen.

I think Pitt will be able to run the ball and the Rutgers will let them, but Stull won't have his way through the air. For the Pitt defense the weakness is the pass defense that is ranked 75th, and they have not played good passing teams. Their average opponent is ranked 65th in passing offense while Rutgers is ranked 93rd that is because their freshmen QB Savage has only played 3 games, and is still learning. Savage is 3-0 in his starts, and he goes here tonight in a game where he definitely has the advantage at home where he takes care of the ball. Look for Savage to get Tim Brown, and talented freshmen Sanu involved early. Brown lit up Pitt last year if you remember when Pitt had their eye on Kenny Britt. Sanu has the size and athleticism to have a game like Brown did if Pitt puts coverage on Brown.

Stull is coming off his worst game as a starter throwing 2 interceptions and one that was taken back for a TD. He can not have that kind of game on the road here tonight. This crowd is going to be wild and I'm interested to see how Stull played well against Louisville on Friday night, but this will be a different environment for him against a defensive line that can get to the QB and is battle tested in the passing game. Rutgers secondary is one of the best at taking the ball away and on the other side Rutgers does not turn the ball over. They stand at +2.4 turnover margin and are 2nd in the nation. If Rutgers can force a turnover or two they can win this game. Overall I expect a defensive battle between two Big East teams. Coach Schiano knows this team well and has beaten them 4 times in a row! I'm sure he'll have a game plan to stop Lewis and Stull.

Take Tulsa +9 (3.5 Dime NCAAF POD) (1-5 scale)
I'm going with the home team here. Both teams have extra preparation in this one, but judging by the sound of it this is a big game for both. This is the most challenging game on Boise State's schedule the rest of the season and if they get past this it should be clear sailing from here. Tulsa on the other hand mirrors everything by what Boise State. They have so much respect for this team and they want this game. Head coach of Tulsa Todd Graham is calling this the biggest game that has ever been played at the University. He knows his players are going to play harder than Boise State and that formula usually works very well in an ESPN game with the home dog especially when they are getting more than a TD to play with!

Wait a second Tulsa lost to Oklahoma 45-0 while Oregon was dominated by Boise State. I know this, but two things to consider #1 Boise State was at home against Oregon in their stadium where they just do not lose the confusion of blue jerseys on blue turf is enough to confuse a QB. Along with that Tulsa was @ Oklahoma and was without two of its starting offensive linemen. Coach Graham said, "we've got a chance now to go out against Boise State and say that score wasn't indicative of what it came out and get a chance to redeem ourselves."

For me all they have to do is cover the spread and they redeem themselves, but I think they will play very solid game here tonight. Boise State lost one of their rushers to a season ending injury and I think that will finally hurt them here as they go up against the nations 16th ranked rush defense. That ranking is way off as they have faced an average opponent of 87, but still has to be respected. Not only did Boise State look weak against UC-Davis, but they recorded just 1 sack a strength for this team and something they will need tonight if they want to stop Tulsa on defense. On the other side of the ball the highly proficient Kellen Moore has been incredible, but the offense seems to stall in the red zone. They have scored TDs on just 16 of 27 red zone trips including 6 of which came without points due to missed field goals or turnovers.

Their will be a sell out crowd and I believe the Hurricane provide pressure on Boise State a team that has shown some definite weaknesses that just may get exploited tonight.

Take LA Monroe -2 (3-Dime POD)(1-5 scale)
Okay, pre-season would say go with Arkansas State and pre-season All conference DE from ASU Alex Carrington, but the games are not played in the pre-season and despite Arkansas State picked to be #2 in Sun Belt this year they are 1-3 out of the gate. Of course they have played some challenging opponents in Iowa and Nebraska on the road, but they also lost to Troy at home as favorites. LA Monroe has not faced cup cakes by any stretch as they have played some very good defenses in Arizona State (leaders in the Pac-10 in defense) and @ Texas to open up the season. They lost both games, but still own the 15th best rushing attack in the nation despite their opponents averaging the 59th rush defense. ASU also has a solid 49th rush offense, but have played against an average 55th rush defense. However, this game won't likely be decided on the ground as both teams have solid run defenses in 28th for LA Monroe (78th average rush offense opponent) and ASU 25th (66th average offense opponent). Through those match ups this game looks relevantly even, but their are two things in my mind pushing me towards LA Monroe to come up with their 3rd conference win.

#1 this is a team with a chip on their shoulder. They also have revenge on their minds as they lost in the most recent battle. You better believe it, nobody picked them to be as good as they have been so far. They are picked to finish 6th and now they stand atop and a win on Tuesday night in the National Spotlight on ESPN 2 will go a long way in deciding this teams future. Here is where these two teams are different. The passing game! With a 60% chance of rain I think we can call that the passing game will still be intact.

LA Monroe have been able to pass the ball behind their Junior QB Trey Revell. Levell played well against the teams he was supposed to. This will be the case on Tuesday night when he faces the 112th pass defense. ASU has been tested in the passing game as they have faced an average 38th pass offense, but again they should be tested on the road as Monroe has some balance in the rushing game in Frank Goodin who has 461 yards rushing and 8 TD through 5 games. He is coming off a 19 carry game for 163 yards off FIU and he is a quick receiver out of the backfield and should give Revell a guy to go to when he gets blitzed. I expect Goodin to be slowed down on the ground, but the passing game for Monroe should be there against a weak secondary.

On the otherside Corey Leonard was impressive against Iowa throwing 2 TD to keep the game close against a very good Iowa defense. However, that's just one game and I expect a let down here tonight. ASU has the 95th ranked passing attack in the country and while LA Monroe is ranked 114th in the pass it's not true on how good they are in my opinion as they have faced an average 33rd ranked passing offense including three teams in the top 33. LA Monroe runs a unique defense unlike any other and I think leonard will have some trouble against it. It's called the 3-3-5. You have 3 linemen, 3 linebackers, and 5 in the secondary. LA Monroe has the personel to run this because DT Aaron Williams anchors the middle while All Conference DE Aaron Morgan rushed from the outside. Morgan has 7 sacks on the season alone and closing in on ULM history. The trio of linebackers for ULM Smith, Jackson and Thomas all are in the top 25 for tackles in the Sun Belt. It's a defense that can be dominant if they can start to stop the pass which I think they will use their experience to do so tonight.

Bottom line this game kind of reminds me of UTEP vs. Memphis over the weekend where we had Memphis as +2 home dogs. UTEP was coming off the big win against Houston and everyone was giving them praise. Not so close here as ASU did not pull off the win @ Iowa but I still think that had a big impact on the line which did open with ASU as -1 favorites and quickly went to +2. This game is going to be exciting and close, but in the end one team is going to have to step up in the passing game and I will take LA Monroe in this one as LA Monroe is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games while ASU is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games!

Take Memphis +2 (1.5 Dime FREE Play)(1-5 scale
Going with Memphis here today this line is way off and it's based on UTEP's offensive explosion at home last week against a solid Houston team. Note they were out gained by 83 yards despite winning by 17. Before this offensive explosion UTEP could barely put together anything on offense in fact they are still ranked 117th overall and they are bad against the pass and rush. Memphis is not much better, but their offensive and defense ranks are slightly better and most of all their pass defense is ranked 62nd. They played Mississippi in game 1 to 17-7 at home before getting blown out. Memphis did the same thing last year they started slow and then they got it together and I think with the need to win they will get it done. Memphis can not fall to 0-3 and despite them being without Bass at QB Memphis has allowed just 6 sacks and Hudgens who will now be back their should be able to pass all over UTEP that gave up up 536 yards last week. UTEP falls under an interesting tredn:

Teams since the 1985 season are 10-29-1 ATS when they are off a home win as dogs while going over now playing vs. conference opponent as an away favorite.

Take Oregon State pk (5-Dime POD) (1-5 scale)

Going with the Beavers at home in this situation. Let's give Stanford the credit they deserve as they have started 4-1 in impressing fashion, but this will be their most challenging test on the road against Oregon State team that is starting to get on a roll after an impressive PAC-10 victory over a talented Arizona State tteam 28-17. Arizona State is no joke as they rank 8th in total defense and 9th in pass defense yet Oregon State was able to go into their stadium and beat them. Oregon State will be on revenge after losing in Stanford last year 28-36. Stanford is off a win against UCLA 24-16 and seems to be the real deal so far, but keep in mind they are 3-0 in the conference by beating three teams picked to finish at the bottom of the conference this year Wash State, Washington, and UCLA.

For me it is is as simple as what each team has to do to win, and for Oregon State it's pretty basic stop the run and Toby Gerhart and you win this game. Oregon State ranks 12th in rush defense, but it should or could be a lot higher as they have faced teams that don't run the ball. Stanford on the other hand will have to stop two parts of the game and that is the Rodgers brothers Quizz in the run game and James in the passing game who is coming off a 10 reception performance last week. While Stanford does have a weapon in Ryan Whalen as a receiver who is second in the Pac-10 in receiving yards, Oregon State has the counter to this weapon in Brandon Hardin who had an interception in his first start. He is one of the more physically gifted men on this roster and I expect him to excel in his second start. He's also a great open field tackler.

What other advantages does Oregon State have here on Saturday? Well Stanford has been very bad on the road and they have not been tested to this point. They were home against UCLA and Washington and visited Washington State which is basically the joke of a very good Pac-10 conference. Stanford has lost 9 of their last 11 games away from home. Oregon State has more talent than the first three opponents and they'll be able to stop Gerhart at home forcing redshirt quarterback Andrew Luck to have a big day. On the other side Stanford's D has some major issues against the run and they will now face their most difficult task and it comes on the road against Jacquizz Rodgers the reigning Pac-10 offensive player of the year last year as a freshmen. Remember Oregon State is a very good team at home and they beat USC, Cal, and Arizona State last year at home. If you remember previous years this is the time of year Oregon State leap frogs in progression and makes a stand and this weekend I think they have an easier task than many think which is why you will hear many people talking about Oregon State next week because right now Stanford is the talk of the Pac-10. Beaver QB Canfield will face an inexperienced secondary and will have James Rodgers open on slants making him very dangerous.

The X factor- home field advantage obviously which is what we mentioned above, but Stanford has fumbled 12 times losing seven and has been the biggest struggle of this offense. Turnovers are what change and decide games a lot of the time and with the crowd behind them in their first real conference road game because I don't count Washington State I think they'll struggle. Note Stanford has not lost a fumble this season and they are one of just 5 schools that can claim this impressive stat.

Take Western Michigan +10 (3-Dime OE play) + Western Mich +305 money line 1-Dime Bonus
I am fading Toledo again just like I did a week ago when they visited Ball State. I got moosed big time at the end of that game to find out how go and look at Payne Sports blog in BAD BEATS. That is neither here or there as I think I'm getting a hole bunch of value with Western Mich an early favorite for the MAC title that has struggled thus far.

Western Michigan has had a challenging schedule so far as they had earlier games at Michigan and Indiana and played well! This line is the way it is because they went to Northern Illinois and stunk it up big time in a 3-38 loss. That's why it's an error in my opinion. I'm not saying Western Mich will win, but it's not a 9.5 point spread type game which is where it has soared to I bet by Saturday you can get it at +10 easily. This is why Western Mich played @ Norther Illinois without their best WR Juan Nunez who will be returning this week after suffering with a bruised knee injury. He will spread the field out as he's got good speed on the year he has 23 receptions for 341 yards nad this is bad news for Toledo who gave up 30 points to Ball State and are ranked 104th in pass defense and 98th in rush defense. So that's two things Western Mich has going for them into this game, a target back on offense and a poor defense. Norther Illinois is good! They ranked 51 overall on defense 64 against the pass and they played well enough to win @ Wisconsin (20-28) and they won @ Purdue so it's not like they beat cup cakes for those rankings. I expect Tim Hiller to bounce back from a poor performance against a poor pass defense and their defense to step up big time as they are a desperate team.

Take Western Michigan +10 (3-Dime OE play) + Western Mich +305 money line 1-Dime Bonus
I am fading Toledo again just like I did a week ago when they visited Ball State. I got moosed big time at the end of that game to find out how go and look at Payne Sports blog in BAD BEATS. That is neither here or there as I think I'm getting a hole bunch of value with Western Mich an early favorite for the MAC title that has struggled thus far.

Western Michigan has had a challenging schedule so far as they had earlier games at Michigan and Indiana and played well! This line is the way it is because they went to Northern Illinois and stunk it up big time in a 3-38 loss. That's why it's an error in my opinion. I'm not saying Western Mich will win, but it's not a 9.5 point spread type game which is where it has soared to I bet by Saturday you can get it at +10 easily. This is why Western Mich played @ Norther Illinois without their best WR Juan Nunez who will be returning this week after suffering with a bruised knee injury. He will spread the field out as he's got good speed on the year he has 23 receptions for 341 yards nad this is bad news for Toledo who gave up 30 points to Ball State and are ranked 104th in pass defense and 98th in rush defense. So that's two things Western Mich has going for them into this game, a target back on offense and a poor defense. Norther Illinois is good! They ranked 51 overall on defense 64 against the pass and they played well enough to win @ Wisconsin (20-28) and they won @ Purdue so it's not like they beat cup cakes for those rankings. I expect Tim Hiller to bounce back from a poor performance against a poor pass defense and their defense to step up big time as they are a desperate team.

Take Mississippi +5 (3.5 Dime EBS play)(1-5 scale)
I don't have to tell you why you should watch this game. In my opinion it is the SEC game of the week not Florida and LSU. Alabama really deserves to be number 1 after what they have shown week in and week out, but they finally meet a defense that can live up to what they put on defense. Alabama is due for a let down performance and this is back to back road games in the SEC and they showed many weaknesses in their run defense last week something Miss will surely take advantage of. If you remember week 1 the only other time Alabama faced a pass rush Vtech did a pretty good job of getting into the backfield. Now in Miss you they will see the best pass rush all season and what the Tide's QB McElroy does against it will be the key to the game. The combination of Lockett and Hardy will be too much for Alabama and they will force some turn overs like they did against Florida last year. They have 18 returning starters from last years team that upset Florida. I believe they shut down Alabama's Mark Ingram as they have they are among the top teams in rush defense. This is really Miss's first home game since being on the road 4 of their 5 games already and the key loss to South Carolina in the SEC is only fueling the fire for this Alabama game. I expect Mississippi to finally put it all together for 4 quarters in an outright victory over Alabama this week!

Arkansas +3
back w/write up

Take Missouri +3.5 (3-Dime NSS play) & Take Under 52 points (1-Dime Bonus)
This game will be an interesting one to watch and many are making a lot out of the weather and the advantage Nebraska will obviously have in the running game if the weather pans out the way it's supposed to with rain at game time and throughout. However, I'm kind of on the other side of this and I see these two teams as more even than anything else. Sure Nebraska has the advantage in the running game, but what happens when they stack the box and force Zac Lee to beat them. Missouri's defense has been much better this year than last year, and Zac Lee has looked great, but let's keep in mind he faced Sun-Belt defenses which does not exactly impress me considering neither team was in the top 70 in defense against the pass. Lee's one test on the road he played awful against Virginia Tech he threw 11-30 with 136 pass yards and 0TD with 2 INTs. Lee is going to have to be able to move the ball to be effective and I don't see it happening on the road in what will be a more livelier environment than what he faced in VT because it's a Thursday night game and the game against VT was a day game. Despite the rain Missouri will still be able to move the ball enough through the air. I believe people over rate the rain in terms of passing, and it won't be down pouring the entire game. expect Blaine Gabbert Missouri's QB to have a big game without any mistakes as he has not given up a single INT all season long. Big advantage for Missouri when it comes to protecting the ball. Nebraska up front can get to the QB, as they were 14th in the nation last year in sacks, but they will pay as they were 89th in the nation in pass defense last year too. Their pass defense looks good and that's the reason why this team is favorites here tonight in my opinion that along with their rushing offense from Helu who is going to start despite having the flu earlier in the week. Nebraska has not faced anyone with any type of pass offense, and Virginia Tech who were ranked 103rd through for 192 yards and a TD. Nebraska is prone to giving up the big play while Missouri fit that boat too in the past they are limiting the big plays to just 2 and they lead the Big 12 as the only team to not allow a run more than 20 yards. This is big considering they are going to get a heavy dose of the running game with Helu. Missouri LB can tackle and I think he'll be wrapped up all day long. Missouri's defense gave up just two passing plays over 25 yards which they gave up 6 in their first game of 08 alone. One of those passes game on a 55 yard halfback pass. Special Teams will also be the key here and Missouri has lacked any kind of a return game. Both teams have excellent kickers and punters. Another key ingredient for the battle of field position in what's going to be s surprisingly low scoring game which is why I like the under as a bonus here. Final advantage Missouri has an extra day as they played on Friday night last week. Also I give coach Pinkel the coaching advantage over Pelini as he's been doing this longer.

Take Missouri +3.5 (3-Dime NSS play) & Take Under 52 points (1-Dime Bonus)
This game will be an interesting one to watch and many are making a lot out of the weather and the advantage Nebraska will obviously have in the running game if the weather pans out the way it's supposed to with rain at game time and throughout. However, I'm kind of on the other side of this and I see these two teams as more even than anything else. Sure Nebraska has the advantage in the running game, but what happens when they stack the box and force Zac Lee to beat them. Missouri's defense has been much better this year than last year, and Zac Lee has looked great, but let's keep in mind he faced Sun-Belt defenses which does not exactly impress me considering neither team was in the top 70 in defense against the pass. Lee's one test on the road he played awful against Virginia Tech he threw 11-30 with 136 pass yards and 0TD with 2 INTs. Lee is going to have to be able to move the ball to be effective and I don't see it happening on the road in what will be a more livelier environment than what he faced in VT because it's a Thursday night game and the game against VT was a day game. Despite the rain Missouri will still be able to move the ball enough through the air. I believe people over rate the rain in terms of passing, and it won't be down pouring the entire game. expect Blaine Gabbert Missouri's QB to have a big game without any mistakes as he has not given up a single INT all season long. Big advantage for Missouri when it comes to protecting the ball. Nebraska up front can get to the QB, as they were 14th in the nation last year in sacks, but they will pay as they were 89th in the nation in pass defense last year too. Their pass defense looks good and that's the reason why this team is favorites here tonight in my opinion that along with their rushing offense from Helu who is going to start despite having the flu earlier in the week. Nebraska has not faced anyone with any type of pass offense, and Virginia Tech who were ranked 103rd through for 192 yards and a TD. Nebraska is prone to giving up the big play while Missouri fit that boat too in the past they are limiting the big plays to just 2 and they lead the Big 12 as the only team to not allow a run more than 20 yards. This is big considering they are going to get a heavy dose of the running game with Helu. Missouri LB can tackle and I think he'll be wrapped up all day long. Missouri's defense gave up just two passing plays over 25 yards which they gave up 6 in their first game of 08 alone. One of those passes game on a 55 yard halfback pass. Special Teams will also be the key here and Missouri has lacked any kind of a return game. Both teams have excellent kickers and punters. Another key ingredient for the battle of field position in what's going to be s surprisingly low scoring game which is why I like the under as a bonus here. Final advantage Missouri has an extra day as they played on Friday night last week. Also I give coach Pinkel the coaching advantage over Pelini as he's been doing this longer.

Take Miss State +6 (4-Dime POD Runner Up)(1-5 scale)
An SEC team vs. an ACC team with major revenge?? Miss State lost @ Georgia Tech last year 38-7, as it was Miss State's first look at this triple option offense and they just got shredded on the ground last year. This reminds me like the Miami match up where I was on Georgia Tech and I have learned my lesson already. Miami had lost the previous year @ Georgia Tech and got beat by the running game. They came up with a big defensive effort by stopping Dwyer up the middle and limiting the yards on the outside with their fast LB. They were home in this match up, but they beat up on Georgia Tech with a 33-17 win after losing 23-41 the previous year. Same situation for Miss. State this week as they have the tape from last year with a new coaching staff in place and the players to make the stops on defense.

Miss State has been stout on their run defense. LSU could not run up the middle or outside against the Bulldogs, and Vanderbilt had the same problems. In their last 2 games against Vandy and LSU two big programs out of the SEC they gave up 63 rushing yards on 60 carries. This is the way you beat Georgia Tech. Force Nesbit to throw and even though they have a top tier WR with some length in Thomas I believe in the SEC over ACC opponents. The fact that we catch points here at home in my opinion is a major advantage. Oddsmakers are probably doubting the Bulldogs signal caller Tyson Lee who is 5'10 and threw 3 interceptions against LSU. Most of that had to do with the weather as two picks were off his receivers hands.

Again new coach Dan Mullen brings a different more credible offense that was in Georgia last year where they had just 7 points. The spread run by Lee will get some yards, as they out gained LSU by 111 yards last weekend, and Tech just does not have the play makers up front to get to through an SEC offensive line. LSU did not have a sack last weekend as MSU has returned four starters from the offensive line and it is certainly paying dividends despite their 2-2 record. Also worth mentioning is Anthony Dixon who is 16th in the nation in rushing yards with 107 per game. This is not your traditional spread offense with passing passing and more passing. They will mix in plenty of rushes to Dixon which will keep Tech guessing. The blueprint has been left by Miami on how to stop this rushing attack and I think their are not many teams that have the skill to run it, but the Bulldogs are one of them. They have the speed on the outside with LB Chaney, Wright, and White.

Take Mich State -3 (4.5 Dime POD) (1-5 scale)
This is a must win for the Spartans. Although I think they have the better team especially at home and that's not why I am taking them, but it will be why they will cover this spread. Michigan State could easily be 3-1. I'll give Wisconsin credit they beat the Spartans but in the losses against Central Mich and Notre Dame they should have won. Central Mich had a miracle win with an onside kick etc, while Cousins missed a wide open WR in the end zone late in the 4th that would have won the game. Although Michigan is 4-0 I fear that is not the truth of this team. They have played 4 home games with 100,000 fans behind them in each game. I expect some challenges for freshmen QB's in their first road test.

Mich State's offense
The offense has been explosive with play action behind Kirk Cousins, and when they need a run they pull in Keith Nichol who can run the ball for a change of pace. Mich State pulled in Nichol last week and he threw an interception so expect him to come in only to give the running game a boost which I think you will see a team more determined to get the running game started. The Spartans are ranked 87th in rushing offense but they are facing Michigan Defense that is suspect to the run and a balanced rushing attack will only wear them out by the 4th. Of course you can pass all day on Michigan's secondary as both Notre Dame and Indiana proved and I find it hard for them to stop the Spartans big weapons. Expect the Spartans to run early and often with their 3 headed attack, Winston, Caper, and Ray all with 20+ carries and for Nichol who is averaging 7.4 yards per carry to get some action as well.

Mich State's defense
This will be the game that the defense comes together a bit. They have an aggressive front four that can stop the run, and that will be their main goal on Saturday when they face Michigan's 8th ranked rushing attack. Mich State has allowed just 113.5 yards on the ground ranked 44th. However, I think they are better than that, and expect them to put an extra guy up to stop Michigan's most talented players in Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor. This will force a major advantage for the Spartans. Tate Forcier has been extremely impressive over the first 4 games. I really gave the guy credit throwing the TD pass last week when his arm was like hanging off. He was in pain which was clear and I think he will get hit on Saturday putting him in some pain. That leads to a bunch of questions once Denard Robinson comes in the other freshmen QB. He's kind of like the Spartan's Keith Nichol. He looks to run first, and does not have the accuracy Forcier has. Regardless he's going to get some playing time and that could be the key to the game, because Forcier could surely lead the Wolverines in any comeback threat. The overall confidence should be up for Michigan State's defense facing two freshmen QB's who have yet to play a road game in college football. After opening up their first 4 games at home at the big house now they will be tested in a tough environment.

Trend of the day
This year teams (Michigan) losing ATS by more than 6 points as a favorite now facing a conference opponent are 5-17-1 ATS with a -10 point margin of victory.

Take Ball State +5 (3-Dimes)(1-5 scale)
After watching the tape of Ball State vs. Auburn I still like this play. Auburn was just a bit more stronger and faster for Ball State. However, they were driving to go up 14-0 when they fumbled and Auburn recovered. The game was basically decided in the 2nd quarter as the second half was 21-20 Auburn in a final rout of 54-30. The best thing to take from this game for Ball State is two things. Their offense got going, and Saturday is a new season as this will be their first game in the MAC this year!

Kelly Page impressed me at one point completing 5 for 5 of his passes, and Ball State has veterans on defense that shifted from 3-4 to a 4-3 which stopped Auburn on a 4th and 1 early which was definitely impressive they got speed and are able to tackle running backs for losses. So why did the offense pick up? They changed the offense to a mid range gameplan or what I like to call the Chad Pennington plan. Less riskier for turn overs and higher percentage throws. The rushing game produced 146 yards against SEC opponent Auburn last week. This will be a desperate Ball State team at home that beat up Toledo 31-0. I think Ball State has a major defensive advantage in Saturday's game. Toledo can put up the points, but I'll take the defensive team with an improving offense at home catching points any day.

Ball State falls under an interesting trend, Since 2007 season teams that were on the road for 2 games now returning home to face a division as a dog with all lines are 29-11-1 ATS winning by a margin of -1.3 points. Don't be surprised to see Ball State repeat last years win vs. Toledo. Also Toledo falls into one I like as well. Since 2007 season teams after being a dog now playing a division as a favorite 3-6.5 points are 10-30-2 ATS with a MOV 1.9 points.

Take Wisconsin +3 (2.5 Dime Play)(1-5 scale)
Lesser of the two games but not by much as I like Wisky to win this game out right against Minnesota team that I feel is over rated. They got beat on the ground big time against Cal and Best and just don't have the men up front to defend Wisconsin here on Saturday. Expect John Clay to have a big game and their QB Scott Tolzien to get involved. He's been one of the nation's most efficient passers and is better than Cal's Kevin Riley in my opinion who threw for 252 passing yards. Best part is he does not make mistakes. Mike Kafka from Northwestern also put up big numbers last week vs. Minnesota's secondary with 309 passing yards. Wisconsin has a very balanced attack with 791 yards rushing on the ground with 10 TDs and then the 921 in the air with 8TD's. Garrett Graham will have a big day for Wisconsin at TE and will continue to impress the NFL scouts! So how would Minny win this game? Maybe if they had Favre on their team like the Vikings, just kidding. They would have to get to Tolzien and they certainly can do that, but Wisconsin is getting healthy on the offensive line. They have not given up a single sack in 3 of the 4 games.

Minny's Adam Weber will be the key to the game as he has a chance to dink and dunk all over Wisconsin, but I think Wisconsin which has the tendency to make turnovers will make one or two that will decide or end the game. What I like about Wisconsin is they are not your traditional boring 4-3 defense of lining up and just playing. They are aggressive and they fly around the ball which is what has led to their leading 12 turnovers forced. They've also been able to get pressure with a 4 man blitz which will be key if Wisconsin gets up on Minnesota and Weber goes back to pass a lot.

Despite playing 4 games at home Wisconsin falls into a trend since the 2007 season where teams who played 4 games at home now away all lines are 19-8 ATS. Look for Wisconsin to continue this trend here on Saturday.

Take Louisville +7 (3-Dime Play)(1-5 scale)
I'm taking Louisville with the points at home hosting Pitt. Pitt has allowed two teams in a row to put up 500+ yards on them in Buffallo and NC State. Pittsburgh's offense is struggling enough that Louisville should be able to take this game.

Pitt's Offense has struggled when it counts. 3rd down conversions on the year are converted just 34% of the time. That just won't win you games. Along with their 3rd down woes are their 2nd half play has not been good and that's partially due to defenses shutting down Dion Lewis who leads the Big East with 493 rushing yards and is the early favorite for Big East rookie of the year something that Louisville's own Vic Anderson got last year. Pitt in their last three contests converted just 4-20 third down conversions in the 2nd Half and on the season they have scored just 57 of their 150 points in the 2nd half. They failed in 5 of 7 of their 2nd half possessions against NC State to get even a first down.

Louisville will have a tough time, but we have seen enough that shows they can move the ball against Pitt who has been lit up as of late. Louisville did look sharp and is able to pass the ball on teams as we saw when they faced Kentucky in a game they should have won if it was not for the 100 yard kickoff return they gave up and a fumble on a punt by their explosive returner Trent Guy. Louisville's QB Justin Burke has to come up big like he did against Kentucky. Louisville has been a 2nd half team against Utah and Louisville they need to get off to a good start to have a chance to win this game. Vic Anderson should get a lot of carries and he's averaging 5.2 ypc on the year.

Where does Louisville have the advantage?
Special teams, I like their chances because of special teams. Trent Guy has fumbled the last twoo weeks, but he's way too dangerous to be taken out of the lineup for returns as he leads the Big East with 33 yards per return. Pitt has a guy of their own no pun intended with Saddler who is 2nd in the Big East in returns, but the advantage comes where Louisville has a specialty kicker who averages 70 yards per kickoff. This should keep Pitt back in terms of field position.

Take Hawaii +4.5 (3-Dime National Stage Showdon)(1-5 scale)
I understand it may be hard to over look how much traveling Hawaii has had to do so far this season with their third road game in 4. However, it appears Hawaii is back to their old tricks with their passing game returning to what it was under Colt Brenan, but this time it's under Greg Alexander.

Alexander leads the nation in passing offense with 423 yards per game and they are also first in pass efficiency. They will face a LA Tech secondary that has a lot of question marks. Even their head coach, Derek Dooley, is doubting their abilities "I'm still concerned about our secondary, especially the corner." They are moving a few guys around, from safety to corner, but overall it will be the pass rush that will have to make the difference in this one. However, LA Tech that does feature a stronger pass rush than it has statistically (2 sacks this season), should not be able to get to Alexander mainly because this is an offense that splits 4 WR out and is designed to make quick decisions before a rush can get to Alexander. LA Tech should have it's hands full after allowing 287 yards through air per game in 2008. Granted they have only given up 156/game this year, but that is definitely a mirage as LA Tech has faced two teams that only run in Nichols State, and Navy followed by Auburn who is a run first team as well.

So how else can LA Tech limit the passing game from Hawaii? Well they can definitely run the ball and occupy the time of possession. However, RB Daniel Porter has not been effective only averaging 44.7 yards rushing a game. He will likely have a little more success here against Hawaii than he did against Navy and Auburn, but Hawaii has a solid front 7 that does not allow big running plays and on the season is allowing 126.7 rushing yards per game. Hawaii should be able to do both running and passing on LA Tech and I do not think La Tech can keep up with Hawaii's offense in the end. If Hawaii can keep the ball away from LA Tech's Phil Livas on special teams, who is ranked 7th in punt returns last season and returned one for 85 yards against Navy, then they should win this game outright!

Take Iowa +10 2-Dime Play (1-5 scale)
We saw a similar match up for Texas Tech last week when they played Texas. Texas had a stronger than usual revenge factor trying to take revenge on TT for kicking them out of the National Championship game. Despite TT losing many more players than Texas they covered the spread easily and were in the game most of the time. See don't take teams on the revenge angle just because they have revenge.. It does not work as well in college football. Penn State's offensive line has been struggling. They have not run the ball and they have not even been tested this year by a quality opponent. Iowa has too much speed to give up the run and the mid range passes. Expect a close game all the way through.

Two interesting trends dating back to the 2007 season that benefit Iowa. Penn State- Losing ATS + under 2 games now playing a conference as a home favorite is 7-20 ATS since 2007 with a margin of victory of 2.9 points. Iowa... Off an over as a home favorite now away as 10-13.5 is 20-6-1 ATS since 2007 season.

Take Purdue +7 2-Dime Play (1-5 scale)
Purdue off a loss, & ATS, plus an under is now a dog 7-9.5... teams falling under those conditions are 24-10-1 ATS since 2007. Notre Dame has been real shaky to start the game and they should have lost against Mich State. We had Mich State as a 10 point dog last week as our POD, and Kirk Cousins missed a WR wide open in the end zone that would have won the game. Pudue's Joey Elliot should have the same type of game one field with lots of passing and offense. Purdue will have to shut down Armando Allen as Notre Dame's usual high octane passing offense should take a hit as they lost Floyd. I don't see anyone being able to replace them.. Golden Tate will try to but I don't see him as a #1 and Clausen with the bummed toe will try to hand the ball off more than usual. Look for TE Kyle Rudolph to have a big game for Notre Dame, but in the end Purdue will be right there with their own passing attack as Notre Dame has yet to prove they can play defense a big weakness and the only reason why this team won't contend for a big time bowl appearance.

Take Oregon State 4.5 Dime NCAAF POD (1-5 scale)

Both Arizona and Oregon State failed with non-conference contests. Arizona lost to Iowa out of the Big 10 while Oregon State lost to Cinci. I just see Oregon State having a huge advantage here Saturday night. Arizona is relying way way too much on their new starting QB Nick Foles who is the better pocket passer, but if he's the key to the game that is a lot of weight on a first time starting QB. Nic Grigsby has been effective early and is 2nd to Jahvid Best in the Pac-10 in rushing, but Oregon State has the personal to stop the run. Oregon State is ranked 17th in the nation against the run allowing just 3.2 ypc. Arizona will have their hands with the Rodgers brothers. The two are the most dynamic play makers int eh Pac-10 and they will make the Oregon State offense go! I just would never back a team (Arizona) that has struggled to put the ball into the endzone and also struggle to convert on 3rd downs. Those are two key ingredients to winning football games that they have had trouble with this year! Oregon State has a 4-3 defense which emphasizes speed and keeps the offense in front of them. I believe the Beavers can concentrate on the running game from the Wild Cats and worry about the pass after with a new QB in there Arizona is likely to keep it conservative really early. It comes down to Arizona's offense they will need a balanced attack to beat Oregon State on the road and that is something I just do not feel that they can come up with, with a new QB. Expect Arizona to be aggressive going after Foles here even though they have just 2 sacks they will go after him and try to force mistakes and I think they'll get them.

Take Florida International pk 4-Dime POD runner up! (1-5scale)

Since the 2007 season teams that are coming off a home under as a dog now playing an opponnent as a favorite all lines are 18-44-2 ATS. That's the position Toledo will be in on Saturday. I'm much more impressed with Florida Int. schedule thus far than I am with Toledo. FLINT as I like to call them has faced Alabama and Rutgers. The story is that they haven't been able to run the ball, but both Rutgers and Alabama are top flight defensive teams, particularly against the run. note that Toledo is giving up a ton of yardage on defense. I'm going with the home team and the team tha tis more aggressive and that is FLINT. FLINT will sell out on defense to get to the QB and that's what they will do as they got to both Alabama and Rutgers with some big plays. They had 4 sacks and 9 tackles for loss vs. Rutgers, and vs. Alabama 1 sack and 5 tackles for loss. This is a similar match up to the Glass Bowl last season where FLINT beat up on Toledo 31-17 as FLINT has nine starters back on both sides of the ball. Toledo played Ohio State and so they are not strangers of strong competition this year, but I'd still take Alabama well over Ohio State. SR. QB Aaron Opelt was terrible when he was under constant pressure under Ohio State's strong defensive front. That's one thing I expect to come from FLINT at home is a lot of pressure. Expect FLINT to play their best football in their first home game of the year with road games on the radar in the Sun Belt vs. ULM and Western Kentucky this game means much more to FLINT than most realize. I just am impressed with the defense and put more value on that than a team that can put up points but not play defense.

Take Virginia Tech 2.5 Dime National Sate Showdown

Look I'm not going to buy into the hype of Miami. I think this line is just really off because of the hype surrounding Miami right now. First off they beat Florida State and Georgia Tech?? Is that all and now we are calling them a potential National Championship team? I want to see them play out of conference first. Virginia Tech has played some tough games out of conference vs. Nebraska and Alabama. They played well in both games. I just personally think the ACC is down so I was not that impressed with victories over FSU and Georgia Tech. The talk has been about how fast Miami's D is bla bla bla.. They are Miami they always have NFL talent and speed, but they have yet to translate that into college football wins. I see this as a defensive game and I always give that to a under dog more so if they are at home that's just a bonus. Look Taylor for Vtech is going to have trouble passing the ball. However, I don't see Miami and Harris doing whatever they want against a stout defense. Miami has relied a lot on their RB tandom Cooper and James to set up the pass, but against Vtech the duo has had 36 carries for just 108 yards.

Miami also falls under an interesting trend that goes back to the 2007 season. Since 2007 teams off a ATS win + under now playing a division game as a favorite are 19-45-1 ATS. Virginia Tech also falls into a trend going back to the 2007 season. Teams off a win + at home for 1 game now playing a divisional opponent as a dog 3-6.5 points are 21-8 ATS.

Lastly don't be surprised if Taylor has a good game. He got plenty of time to pass the ball last week against the Huskers who have a very capable defensive front. With Stephan Virgil back in the starting line up for Vtech int he secondary I give the Hokies a major advantage defending the pass. So much ju

Take Wyoming +3.5 3-Dime Oddsline Error Play
I will back a coach as a home dog any day of the week who makes statements like this, "The biggest issue is that I'm not a very patient person It's not easy for me to lose football games, especially back to back. That hasn't happened a lot in my career. it's not something I deal with very well. I don't sleep at night----I contstantly wake up in bed trying to figure out ways to help these kids to be successful... Losing is not acceptable by my standards." -Wyoming head coach Dave Christensen.

Don't get me wrong that's not the reason I'm going with Wyoming as dogs and I decided long before they droped to 3.5 dogs form 5.5 at opening. So this is not strictly a line movement play. I really liked how this team played vs. Texas where it was 13-10 at the half. This team can play defense that's the bottom line. Their offense has been slow, but they will make a change this weekend when they named true freshmen Austyn Carta-Samuels as their starter. That's what happens when you managed only three points on offense in the last two games. Luckily they will be facing UNLV who is ranked 99th nationally against the pass. UNLV has also lost 19 straight MWC road games. Dont' expect it to end here with a hungry Wyoming team.

Take South Carolina +4 2-Dime Play (1-5 scale)
Not a huge play by any means, but I really like for the Game cocks to use the experience that they gathered by facing NC State and Georgia early on. While USC was playing tough opponenents Miss was off facing Memphis and D-I AA SE Louisiana team. The score against Memphis won't tell the entire story as Miss pulled away late and Snead threw 2 picks. Turnover have been the problem. We know that Snead started slow last year and then picked it up over the last six weeks of the season.

I really like what I have seen from Stephen Garcia at QB for the Gamecocks, 31-53 313 yards vs. Georgia, and 20-27 222 yards vs. FAU. He is a mobile passer and has accuracy and the weapons to go along with his talent. I believe the key of the game will be the mis match that South Carolina has against Miss's strength which is the pass rush behind Greg Hardy who has a sprained left ankle and the Rebels coach said they don't even know how long he can play. South Carolina is getting some help back from injuries this week which should help them with their run defense up the middle when they return Ladi Ajiboye. I see Snead getting a lot of pressure on him in this game and on the short week traveling to play in front of a loud crowd on national television does not look good for a QB that is going to be the key here for Mississippi to have a solid chance at dominating this game. It took him three quarters to get going against Memphis and while Georgia showed it could move the ball on USC, the GameCocks were able to return the favor and if it weren't for their terrible special teams that allowed Georgia great field position all night long I think USC wins that game. Now Spurrier says the special teams issues have been fixed and add in the fact that they are playing at home as under dogs and I think you have the goods of an upset.

Take Michigan State +10.5 (4.4 Dime POD **1-5 scale)
Going with Michigan St. to continue their streak of playing well at Notre Dame. The Spartans have won 7 straight and will go for their 8th coming off a big upset at home last week to Central Michigan. Notre Dame will be fighting back from a loss at Michigan as well and will want this game just as much. This line has been coming down but can be found in many places at +11 even.

Michigan States loss against Central Michigan was a big dissapointment to the players and coaching staff. They are angry, but the fact of the matter is Central Michigan is a good team and it took a miracle for them to beat Michigan State. A perfect onside kick and C-Mich drove the field lined up for a 47 yard field goal and missed, Spartans win! Nope, an offside penalty gives them an extra 5 yards and Central Michigan out of the MAC upset Michigan State. The MAC gets better every year and Michigan State faced the best QB they will face all year in my opinion in Dan Lefevour who has numbers over the last few years that rival Tim Tebow without the Tebow weapons. Lefevour will definatley be playing on Sundays next year. He did blast Michigan State's secondary, considered by many to be the strength of the team for 328 yards, but that was mostly by dinking and dunking and don't forget he has much more mobility than Jimmy Claussen who has looked impressive and has a better WR corps. So why does Michigan State cover the spread. In my opinion 10+ points is simply too many for this match up. Notre Dame's defense is not as good as they showed against Nevada as they gave up 430 yards to a Michigan team that was just not that good a year ago. Michigan State has everyone back in their secondary from a year ago minus Otis Willer, but they got back Roderick Jennette who was a projected starter the year before but had to sit out for academic reasons. This will be a big test for the Spartans and I see that they'll be up for it as their defense translates better vs. the pro style offense rather than the spread that they had to face last week. On offense they really need to establish a running game, but if they don't they have a pair of QB's that can keep up with Jimmy Clausen. Kirk Cousins has looked impressive and has yet to throw an INT. They have the weapons offensively to move the ball. This game is going to come down to mistakes and I'm just talking about who will win the game. I think it will be a close game all the way through and a mistake will be the different but even then it's not going to be a 10 point mistake so I'll gladly take this amount of points as Vegas is making a bigger deal out of Central Michigan's miracle win over Michigan State. I believe this would be a TD spread if Michigan State wins that game.

Take Virginia +15.5 (Risk 3.3 Dimes to Win 3-Dimes)
Since 1985 teams coming off a home game as a dog now facing a non-conference as an away dog 14-16.5 points are 42-17 ATS (79.6%). That is what Virginia has to deal with this week when they face Conference USA Southern Miss. Don't get me wrong Southern Miss is an excellent team and program, but I think this line is a little over board. The reason is because Virginia has looked awful losing to Richmond and TCU. I can't really defend the Richmond loss, but TCU is one of the better teams around and they only loss 30-14. TCU could probably take care of Southern Miss themselves. Southern Miss is actually 0-7 ATS as double digit home favorites vs. opponents off a SU and ATS loss. So why might Virginia stay in the game or win outright? Defense! It's the name of the game and they have played well getting some pressure from their line. This secondary is one of the most talented in the ACC. They should be able to contain Austin Davis, and WR DeAndre Brown. Southern Miss only got to the end zone twice a week ago along with a defensive score and two FG, but they showed they are vulnerable when they face better defenses. That is what Virginia has and they have a coach that has been here before. Al Groh has taken the program from 0-2 to a bowl game in 2002, so do not think this team is not motivated to pull something similar. I think what will happen is that Virginia will do a better job of protecting their QB allowing the new spread offense to work and move the ball enough to get the cover.

Take Florida -29.5 (Risk 2.2 Dimes to win 2-Dimes)
Florida Gators will be well motivated in this game and I can not lay off. Many people feel good about Tennessee because Marty Kiffin is their D-coordinator and he did wonders year in and year out as the Bucs D-coordinator in the NFL, but this is not the NFL. It is different to coach in college it is more rah rah and that's just not Kiffin. Plus it does not matter how well they play on defense it's their offense that is going to be struggling to score and may give up a few points of their own. Tennessee struggled against UCLA defense of the Pac-10. Now they face the Gators who are just licking their chops over the trash talk that Lane Kiffin was talking in the off season. Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11. The spread is high yes, but I don't know that the Vols will score. Which means can Florida put 30 points on the board? Absolutely how about 40 or 50!

Take California -13.5 (3.3 Dimes To Win 3-Dimes)
I think we are getting a generous line for two reasons. In the past Cal has struggled on the road. Secondly Minnesota has the new stadium, and although it's their second game the fans should still be crazy. However, it's an extremely early game 11 AM locally and that's 9 AM for the Bears. They struggled last year when they had to come east and play an early game when they lost to Maryland, but Cal has been here since Thursday to accommodate for the time change and get their players ready. Minnesota shifted from the spread offense to a pro style attack this year and it has not yielded any results. Cal has the players to shut down Virginia here today and they will spend plenty of time in the back field getting to QB Adam Weber. Look for Alualu and Jordan to get in his face all day long and I'll bet he makes a mistake or two. Minnesota has scored just 43 points and the running game has been non-existent against average defenses. They guy you'll want to watch in this game is Jahvid Best from Cal. He is a stud and in my opinion the best back in the country. He has 281 yards rushing already on just 27 carries. Averaging more than 10 yards per carry is not an easy thing to do. He'll face a stronger defense today, but I fear the same results. In the end Cal will just have too much offense for a Minnesota offense that has not scored an offensive touch down in six straight quarters. No offense vs. a very good offense.. hmm let me think take the road chalk in this one!