Memphis +7.5 5.5% POD / Memphis +250 1%

We have two very similar teams meeting again in Florida for the AAC Championship game.  These two met back in week 3 and it was a UCF win 40-13.  Central Florida opened as a 2.5 point favorite in that game and climbed to 5.5 at close.  We really did not know much about that team, and Memphis did not either.  Fast Forward and neither of these teams have lost a game since and it's an interesting rematch between the two, but we are getting 4.5 - 5 points of line value, because on a neutral field these two teams are as evenly matches as possible. 

Both head coaches are looking to better jobs next year most likely, and they are backed by two very good balanced offenses while both defenses really leave a lot to be desired.  Central Florida 96th vs. the pass, Memphis is 98th, and on paper we should have a high scoring game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a lower scoring game here.

In the first match-up Memphis pretty much played as bad as you can with 4 turnovers.  It was their first road game of the season and it really looked like it.  The turnovers were pretty bad there was a fumble in the red zone that took away at least 3 points off the scoreboard.  Shortly after Central Florida had a 95 yard TD run recapping momentum and taking a huge 16-7 lead at the time.  Later in the second quarter Riley Fergusson threw an interception that was tipped as Memphis was driving which was returned 35 yards and later UCF scored a TD making it 23-7.  At that point the balanced offense that Memphis does possess was sort of out the window.  In the third Fergusson threw another interception as Memphis was driving.  This one was just a bad throw, but probably took another 3-7 points off the board for the Tigers.  The third interception came after a huge 3rd and 12 where the receiver dropped a wide open catch.  On 4th down Fergusson forced a ball that was dropped again by his receiver and picked off setting UCF up in their own territory leading to another TD.  All in all there were also 3 fumbles in this game which UCF recovered each and every one.  Simply luck if you ask me.  I expect this game to be tight much like UCF's last game.

UCF was actually lucky to beat USF who out gained them by 120 yards and won on a 95 yard kickoff return for a TD.  In reality UCF's defense has not looked as dominant down the stretch they have been worse in run offense and defense as the months have progressed yet they have been helped by a very easy schedule.  Their 3rd down play which really won them the game in the first match up as they converted 10-18 and allowed just 4-12 and 1-4 on 4th down has been a struggle lately.  They are converting just 38% over their last 4 games and have allowed 40% conversion over their last 4 games.  Memphis defense has gotten better throughout the season allowing 52% conversions in September, 44% in October, and then 32% in November.

It was just a bad game for Memphis they match-up pretty well in this game and definitely have the ability to win this game.

Umass +100 4.5% play

This was a game that was not scheduled.  Both teams missed a game this season that did not get made up because of Hurricane Irma.  The fact that the game was scheduled you know that means that Umass wants to be here.  Umass will have 2 weeks to prepare for this game and are treating it as their bowl game as this is a trip to Florida for them.  FIU, probably already looking towards their bowl game at 7-4 which will likely be the Boca Bowl regardless of the outcome here.

FIU has over achieved and they are off a misleading victory over Western Kentucky who we played last week.  They recovered all 4 fumbles in the game, but you have to give them credit they held Western Kentucky 1-4 on 4th down.  However, they gave up 355 passing games in that game and now they face a red hot Umass team led by Andrew Ford at QB and I think the Minutemen are the best 4 win group of 5 team.  You give Umass FIU's schedule and they likely are at 7-4 as well.

When you factor in Umass has not lost a game all year by more than 11 points it is truly impressive.  They started 0-6 but rallied winning 4 out of their next 5 games.  Their loss at Miss State was by only 11 points.  I remember wanting to take Umass +32, but I found out they were without Andrew Ford for that game, but it didn't matter as they were only out gained by 43 points in that game.  Umass also played another SEC opponent tough on the road in Tennessee only losing 13-17 earlier in the season before things fell apart for Tennessee.  They also beat a very good Appalachian State team and a BYU team who were playing for their head coaches 2 week sago on the road. 

USC / Stanford Under 58.5 3.3% play 

I took USC -3 earlier in the week before the line move.  Pure numbers grab given the situation USC is in it sets up nice for them, but I'll be looking for Stanford +7 or higher in live game action or +4.5 before the game if I can get it in hopes of getting a middle.  I really think this could be a close game.

Stanford off a big win over Notre Dame, but that was a bit misleading as they trailed 20-17 int he 4th Q before forcing 3 TO's as Notre Dame fell apart.  Stanford's defense has played a lot better of late and if they avoided the big plays that Notre Dame had in this game, 83 yard pass in the 1st quarter, and 75 yard pass in the 3rd quarter they actually held Notre Dame to 6 points.  They also held Washington to 22 points.  The adjustments that David Shaw has made to a struggling defense have been impressive.  Their struggling run defense which has plagued them all year just held Washington to 4.09 ypc, and Notre Dame to 3.50 ypc both really good rushing offenses.  I expect a better game from Stanford's defense here.

Now Stanford's offense can also help their defense by sitting on the ball which they have been pretty good at over the history of the program.  Bryce Love is banged up but he is a tough kid and he will get the bulk of the carries here.  KJ Costello took over at QB and he's been a better fit than Keller Christy who started in the first game, but overall I wouldn't expect him to make a huge difference in the total which is 4.5 points higher than the first game giving us line value.  Costello did not impress me against Notre Dame.  He made a couple of tight throws that were essentially jump balls.

For USC they ran the ball 48 times in the first match-up and 26 throws.  The running games will keep the clock rolling in this one.  I don't see them wanting to take too many chances with Darnold who had 2 INT's in the first match-up. 

Notre Dame -2 4.4% POD

This game actually has a lot of implications.  Stanford is hoping to win and get into the PAC 12 Championship game if Washington can beat Washington State.  Notre Dame is looking for a 10th win to play in the New Years 6 which is entirely possible.  When you look at Notre Dame they have played extremely well and their only two loses have come at the hands of Miami and Georgia.  

For Notre Dame, they have struggled this year when they have faced top 25 defenses.  Their loss against Georgia was against the countries #8 defense, they struggled against Michigan State #17, but got a big win.  They struggled at Miami #12.  Now they face Stanford who is #70 in yards per play allowed, and actually 89th vs. the run.  This is not your prototypical Stanford defense.  Even Cal last week ran all over Stanford nearly pulling the upset.  Cal has the #126 ranked yards per carry rushing offense and they averaged 5.54 ypc on the road at Stanford.  Notre Dame is #2 in the nation and is the best rushing offense that Stanford has faced all year by far.  For Notre Dame they are arguably facing the worst running defense they have faced all year.  

Notre Dame's defense is another key here.  I don't think Bryce Love is healthy and we have seen Cal, and Oregon State be competitive with Stanford.  Oregon State without Love, and Cal was able to take Love out of the game.  Notre Dame clearly has the capability and talent to take one player out of this game and I think they'll be able to do that, and I won't be surprised if Love gets banged up again in this game.

Lastly, I'm not a big supporter of the PAC 12.  I think it's a weak conference and has even fallen below the Big 12.  While Notre Dame is Independent they tend to play a lot of ACC and Big Ten opponents. 

Washington State +10.5 3.3% Play 

Washington State has struggled in the Apple Cup.  However, this is a different Washington State team whose strength is on defense led by Hercules Mata'afa.  It doesn't take much to hold this Washington offense in check.  A Washington offense that in my opinion is over rated.  It will also help Washington State who needs a win here to get to the PAC 12 Championship game has an extra week to prepare.

Meanwhile Washington was lucky to get by Utah at home as a 17.5 point favorite.  A Utah team that was playing without some of their best players.  Washington's defense gave up 30 points in back to back games.  Washington State's offense is completely one dimensional, but I expect they can score enough to keep them in this game.  

Washington State under Mike Leach as a road dog in the Pac 12 is 14-7 ATS.  You would think they would be at a disadvantage on the offensive and defensive line, but in adjusted yard rankings Washington State is better than Washington in both categories.  As much as I mentioned Washington State being better this year.  It also a fact that Washington is not as good as last year.  They are averaging .5 yards less per play.  Jake Browning has 18 TD's and 5 interceptions, but last year he had a 43/9 ratio and now he goes up against a Washington State defense that thrives on getting to the QB.  Washington State's defense is allowing a 104 QB rating.  A year ago they allowed 138 and 12 more passing TD's.  Washington State must force turnovers and win the turnover battle if they'll win this game, but I see no reason why they should get beat by double digits. 

Iowa State / Kansas State Under 49.5 3.3% play 

Both teams here are down to their 3rd string QB.  Both teams also leaning heavily on running the ball and their defense.  Both teams starting freshman QB's and both teams want to win this game.  Iowa State's defensive weakness is against the pass so they really match-up well against Kansas State who hardly ever throws the ball.  The last three meetings between these two teams have been close and both are in the bottom of the nation at #85 and #121 at pace.  

Auburn +5 3.3% play / Auburn +175 1% play

Auburn has a far superior strength of schedule here playing at Clemson, at LSU, they also got Georgia at home from the East who they dominated.  Alabama really can't claim a quality win other than Miss State on the road whom they should have lost to.  Miss State just lost last night as a 15 point favorite to Ole Miss.  Auburn much more impressive in their game over Ole Miss.  Auburn also against the two teams Alabama struggled against (Texas A&M & Miss State), both games decided by one possession.  Alabama won 58-43 combined.  Meanwhile Auburn won 97-37.

I think Auburn's defense here is getting a bit disrespected and Alabama really has not faced a team this balanced in the sense that they can play defense at a top 10 level and they can play offense at a top 10 level.  Maybe LSU was close ranking 38th in yards per play offensively and 23rd defensively, but Auburn is #20 and #5.  LSU also faced Alabama on the road (24-10 loss).  LSU is also a run first team and they don't get as much out of their QB.  Auburn is ranked #6 in QB rating behind Jared Stidham who has 16 passing TD's and 4 INT's.

Let's not forget Auburn is home here and when they have a good team they normally win this game.  Especially when they are at home.  I think Alabama is a misleading team this year I don't think they are as good as their stats say.  

Southern Miss +132 3.5% play 

Both of these teams are 7-4 and really this game has nothing on the line, but I like the advantage and momentum Southern Miss has going into this game right now having scored 43 and 66 points in their last two games.  meanwhile Marshall off a 9-7 win over UTSA.  Southern Miss arguably is the most balanced team Marshall has faced all year and all of Southern Miss losses have been quality.  Losing to two SEC teams as well as UAB, and North Texas who is playing in the conference championship.  

Now Marshall is also a quality team, but in my opinion they are a flawed team.  They rely too much on the pass which is the strength of Southern Miss defense.  They also rely heavily on special teams.  Southern Miss is a tough match-up for Marshall here and should be able to score enough points to win.  So long as they don't turn the ball over and give up kick off returns I believe they will beat an over rated Marshall team. 

Purdue/Indiana Under 52 2.2% play 

Both of these teams are much improved defensively.  Purdue is allowing 20 points less per game compared to last year and they are excellent against the run.  Indiana also great against the run and allowing 13 points less than 2 years ago and 3 less than last year. 

Both teams are 5-6 and this is a rivalry game with the winner getting to a bowl game.  I expect a great played game here and one that will be about the strength of the team which is defense.  Under has jumped up 5 points over key numbers and is worth a play at this point. 

California +7 4.4% POD / California +235 1%

This game is a very important for both teams with a 6th win and a bowl game on the line.  However, I feel it's much more important to the Cal team who have a first year head coach who has transitioned the program to a completely different style of football.  The extra practice would be a huge benefit.  On the other side you have UCLA, with Josh Rosen who likely will be a top 10 draft pick playing after their head coach was fired.  Does Rosen want to risk an injury?  Does he even want to get to a bowl game?  I have far more questions on the UCLA side than Cal.  Even if UCLA comes to play I like what I have seen from this Cal team in this role this season.

Wilcox has a very good defensive mind, and I think they are able to take Rosen out of this game a bit.  I read an article about how Cal is awful against the pass.  Really?  They have faced 3 future NFL QB's this year.  Ole MIss, Shea Patterson, Washington State's Luke Falk, and USC's Sam Darnold.  They won 2 of those 3 games as an under dog and held the trio of NFL QB's to 4 passing TD's and 8 interceptions.  Now they'll be facing Josh Rosen, who I admit is the best of the bunch, but I don't see him having the mindset to beat a Cal team who will be full invested in a win.

Now, you also have an advantage with Cal's under rated running team.  Patrick Laird has really come on to be a force.  They ran for 155 yards at Stanford last week and while Stanford has not had the best defense this year they are still much better than UCLA who ranks 119th in the country vs. the run.  This sets up well for Cal to not only stay in the game, but pull the upset as I think they will. 

Western Kentucky -2.5 2.2% play 

Whoever can pass the ball better in this game will win the game.  Again, I am going with the road team as the more focused team the day after a holiday.  Western Kentucky, who I have been down on all year has continued to get better.  I have been impressed with their defense especially, and I can see them really dominating this game.

Mike White started this season slow, but he has put up monster numbers with 3,471 passing yards 22 TD's and 7 INT's.  He's really starting to connect with his receivers and in their wins this year he has a 17 TD / 3 INT ratio with a 157 QB rating.  In their losses they have a 123 QB rating.  They key is to pass the ball here for them since they are so bad running it.  Good news is that they go against a defense that's not very good.  Florida International can't get to the QB, and they rank 105th in opposing QB rating.  In their losses they have allowed a 191 QB rating.  Overall they have allowed 17 passing TD's to just 6 interceptions.  I think Western Kentucky can play this game pretty comfortably. 

Offensively I don't think FIU can keep up.  Alex McGough is a solid QB, but 13 TD and 7 INT's is not going to get it done against Western Kentucky's #12th ranked passing defense.  I played Middle Tennessee last week and they were able to move the ball against Western Kentucky, but that offense is far superior than FIU.  I really think Western Kentucky have turned the corner from their early season struggles which was to be expected after losing Jeff Brohm to Purdue and hiring a new coaching staff that had no coaching experience. 

Northern Illinois -3 3.3% Play 

Northern Illinois will be playing this game with fire as they can get to the MAC Championship game with a win, and a Toledo loss.  Toledo will be playing 30 minutes earlier so the game will be going on at the same time.  I expect head coach Carey will try to avoid letting his players know what's going on in the game between Toledo and Western Michigan.  For Central Michigan this game really means nothing other than jumping Northern Illinois in the standings.  Northern Illinois also lost this game last year and would like to have revenge.

I really like how this game matches up here.  For one the road team actually has an advantage being on the road the day after a holiday they should be more focused.  The other thing is Central Michigan's strength is passing the ball and stopping the pass.  They are ranked 98th vs. the run.  Northern Illinois is actually a top pass defense 38th in opposing QB rating and 6th in sack %.  Central Michigan relies heavily on the pass, and the 3 times they have faced a good pass defense ranking in the top 10 they scored 10, 8, and 14 points losing all three games by 17, 20, and 20 points.  Here they just have to lose by 4 or more.  Expect Northern Illinois pass rush led by Sutton Smith (13 sacks) to really be the reason Northern Illinois can come out of here with a double digit victory. 

In addition to that edge Northern Illinois has a balanced offense.  They can run and throw the ball.  So even though Central Michigan is poor against the run, they can't sell out against it because Northern Illinois is fully capable of passing the ball.  The other thing to note here is 15mph winds.  Less than ideal for a pass happy Central Michigan.  I believe Northern Illinois will be better int he red zone.  I don't expect a super high scoring game, but Northern Illinois should walk away with a big win. 

Miss State -14 -120 buy 1/2 - 2.5% Play 

I get that this is Ole Miss bowl game, but I think they are a very flawed team.  It's obvious that their head coach Matt Luke is not coming back, and that this team is in a tough situation following a game against Texas A&M where they finally played a bit tougher competition.  Now this is an even bigger step up playing their hatred rival, but Miss State is poised to play their best game as well and I like the match-ups in this one.  Miss State also fighting for a win here and a win in their bowl game to get to 10 wins.  Their only losses were against Auburn, Alabama, and Georgia so they have had a pretty challenging schedule.

Ole Miss is ranked 119th vs. the run in terms of rushing yards per carry allowed.  Now they have faced 3 teams in the top 31 and have given up 40, 44, and 66 points in losses.  Miss State is ranked #24 running the ball and also have a mobile QB.  The last time they faced a mobile QB it was Alabama and they gave up 66 points as Jalen Hurts ran wild for 101 yards on only 10 carries.  So that is strength vs. weakness which favors MIss State who has also won big against the average to good teams.  With the exception of Arkansas last week.  That actually gives us some value and if you can't get -14 at -120 odds I think you are still safe.  Against Arkansas they got off to a horrific start down 14-0 after a fumble return for a TD and they won 28-21.  However, that was on the road and off a tough game against Alabama that they let slip away.  Here they are in a much better spot in my opinion to win and win big.

Ole Miss is a one dimensional offense that really hasn't faced a lot of top passing defenses.  Their back up Jordan Ta'amu has looked good, but it started to show last game against a good defense.  A&M ranked 66th vs. the pass and can also get to the QB.  A&M shut them out in the second half and that was in their own building.  Miss State has the #33 passer rating defense and is top 10 at getting to the QB. They are even better on defense at home and this is a night game as well where Miss State is even better.  I think they'll be focused to get out to a good start considering how they left their last game.  This is a completely different challenge for the Ole Miss QB and Ole Miss is already -8 TO margin.  I expect Miss State to get out to a fast start which should create an issue with Ole Miss motivation.  If we get to the half and they are down don't expect much effort from this team late.  I can see Miss State scoring in the 40's and holding Ole Miss in the 20's.  Don't fall into the trap of taking the dog in this rivalry game. 

California +16 3.3% play 

Cal has been in this game the last two years losing by 13 and 14 points.  I think they are a better team this year especially since they brought in a new coach in Wilcox who has created a very good defense and a more balanced offense.  What if I told you Cal had the better defense from a yards per play perspective?  You would be shocked, but that's exactly the case here as Cal is ranked 59th and Stanford is ranked 67th. 

Cal has an extra week to prepare against a one dimensional offense in Stanford.  I could actually see Cal winning this game especially since they need a win to get to a bowl.  Stanford is off a huge win over Washington, but still need to win this game to get to the PAC 12 Championship.  They do have Notre Dame on deck which makes this interesting. 

Either way Cal's defense is playing better allowing 14 points per game and 86 yards per game under what they allowed last year.  An extra week to prepare for Bryce Love and I see Cal giving Stanford some issues here. 

Vanderbilt +280 2% play

Purdue +8 5.5% POD / Purdue +250 1% play

 Iowa just came off two gigantic games against Ohio State and Wisconsin. I don't know how they get up for this game to be honest and Purdue matches up well. Purdue also wants and needs this game more as they are 4-6 and need to win out to get into a bowl game. Jeff Brohm has Purdue competitive in just every game and I don't see any reason to believe that won't be the case here. I really don't think the line is right for this one. Iowa is -84 yards per game in conference play, but they have that big win against OHio State that nobody will forget. Purdue is just -2 yards per game in conference play and have a very good run defense. Iowa when held under 135 yards average only 13.25 points per game. I really think this Purdue team can keep Iowa's rushing totals in that area. There will be 19 mph winds and it'll be 40 degrees in this one making the running game that much more important so let's take a look at how these two match-up. Surprisingly Purdue has the better rushing offense and rushing defense. Purdue averaging 4.4 ypc and 4.34 in conference play they have the #11 offensive line in adjusted line yards. Iowa just 3.68 ypc and 3.58 in conference play ranking #74 on the offensive line. Defensively Purdue allowing just 3.71 ypc and 3.58 ypc in conference play while Iowa allowing 4.35 ypc and 4.44 in conference play. Purdue ranks #1 in adjusted line yards on the defensive side of the ball given their strength of schedule while Iowa ranks 108th. Iowa has faced an average rushing offense ranked 74th while Purdue has faced an average rushing offense ranked 48th. On the flip side Iowa has faced a stronger rushing defense average at #32 compared to Purdue at #55. At the end of the day these teams are both well coached, and this game means more to Iowa and we are getting over a TD against two teams where the game should be shortened. I wouldn't be shocked if Purdue pulls the upset here. 

Fresno State -2.5 3.3% Play

Wyoming has covered 7 games in a row and are winning games based on their defense and ability to force turnovers.  They are ranked #1 in the country in TO margin with +17.  They have been fortunate because they haven’t faced many teams that have a good TO margin ratio.  The teams that were above average in takeaways were also giving the ball away.  Half of their opponents were ranked 100 or worse in either takeaways or giveaways.  Boise State was the only team with a good TO margin ratio at +8 and Boise won 24-14.  Fresno comes into this game at +8 and ranked 17th in the nation having turned the ball over only 9 times.

Fresno State needs to win this game to get to the conference championship.  A win and they are in with the tie breaker over San Diego State.  Fresno has Boise on deck so I doubt they want to leave it to that game especially when they are facing a Wyoming team that’s ranked 124th in yards per play.  They have played some bad defenses along the way as well and can’t seem to get anything going despite having an NFL caliber QB in Josh Allen.

Allen is actually questionable for this game along with Fresno’s starting QB Marcus McMaryion.  However, both of these teams run the ball 55% of the time anyway, and the weather looks to be less than ideal for passing with 18 mph winds.  With that said let’s look at the running games and running defenses of each team.

First of all the strength of schedule is in favor of Fresno State.  They faced an average run defense ranking 58.8, while Wyoming has faced a run defense ranking on average 68.3.  Fresno clearly the better running game in the top 50 in the nation and averaging 4.76 ypc, and 4.91 in conference play compared to Wyoming who is ranked 123rd nationally.  Wyoming averaging 3.09 ypc and 3.38 in conference play.  Run defense, Fresno State has faced an average rushing offense ranked 44.7 while Wyoming has faced 63.6.  With that said Fresno despite facing the stronger schedule has better numbers against the run.  Fresno allowing 3.64 ypc, just 3.45 ypc in conference play with just 3 rushing TD’s allowed in conference play.  Wyoming’s defense 3.66 ypc on the season, and 3.72 ypc in conference play while allowing 7 rushing TD’s in conference play.

Fresno needs this win, they don’t turn the ball over and it could be argued that they have the better defense.  While that may not show up statistically they have by far faced a stronger schedule as we have outlined which typically messes with stats a bit. 

Michigan +7.5 4.4% Play

I don't want to get caught up in the strength of schedule here, but there is a difference in strength of schedules, and I think Michigan actually matches up well here against Wisconsin.  Last year it was a 14-7 victory for Michigan, and this team is not looking ahead to Ohio State.  Jim Harbough needs a big win like this, and I think his team at this point is a bit under rated given their rank.  They lose a fluke game against Michigan State, a game that they lost by 4 points, but had a -5 TO margin ratio.  If you are -5 TO's you expect to lose b y much more in my opinion.

For Wisconsin they just don't have the offense in my opinion to outscore and cover a large spread against a top 5 defense.  Wisconsin just lost their best WR for the season in Sephus, and their QB Hornibrook has thrown 12 interceptions and is really average with below average arm strength.   Their Heisman hopeful Johnathan Taylor actually has 6 fumbles on the year.  Wisconin has faced just 1 team in the top 65 in yards per play offense and that was Florida Atlantic before they were a dominant offense back in week 2.  Michigan ranks 71st, but they have played a slew of top 50 defenses.  Michigan's offense is actually playing with confidence right now and over their last 3 games have averaged 6.7 yards per play which would actually put them 11th in the country.  While, Wisconsin actually ranks 26th overall with 6.2, but over their last 3 games they are averaging 5.2 which would actually put them 90th.  Brandon Peters has taken over at QB and has looked far better than O'Korn and Speight, but when you look at Michigan is really a mirror image of what Wisconsin is and likes to do.

Both teams run the ball 60% of the time, and are supported by below average QB's, and lean on their defense to pick up the win.  Both defenses are top 5, and Wisconsin has faced some good defenses, but nothing to this caliber.  They have been able to wear defenses and offensive lines down this season, but I just don't see it happening here.  Actually when looking at offensive and defensive line adjusted yards Michigan ranks 11th and 10th on the DL & OL while Wisconsin comes in 43rd, and 20th.  Michigan also has a major advantage in both areas in power success rate.  That's a huge advantage here as it's supposed to also be windy.  Michigan's QB Peters has the better arm, he has the better athletes and so far he's taken care of the ball as well.  Neither team protects their QB well.  Michigan ranks #1 in getting to the QB in the nation while Wisconsin is right there so again another area where these two teams are very much even.  At the end of the day it's a lot of pressure for Wisconsin that I think they can handle, but this is just too many points.  JIm Harbough has lost 8 games since coming to Michigan.  6 of the 8 games were by 7 or less points.  Wisconsin really not a team that blows you out unless they are getting turnovers which they have been able to secure the last two games forcing Indiana & Iowa into late game turnovers.  Michigan has only turned the ball over 14 times this year with only 5 on the road.  They have played 5 games since their game against Michigan State where they turned the ball over 5 times.  In their last 5 games they have turned the ball over a total of 2 times. 

Temple +14 3.3% play / Temple +447 1% play

Temple needs this game big time if they are going to go to a bowl game with 5 wins and they have an extra day to prepare.  Central Florida is undefeated and playing with a ton of pressure.  Not only do they have a bit of a look ahead with South Florida next week waiting for them, but their head coach Scott Frost is being rumored for the Florida head coaching jobs and others.  We have seen this before before Justin Fuente and Tom Herman the last two years took on bigger jobs at Virginia Tech and Texas their team were big favorites and lost outright. 

Temple is playing their best football right now and it's the offense that is playing well over the last 3 games 6.6 yards per play which would put them top 20.  It's no surprise that happened when they went to Frank Nutile at QB who is playing well and the run game also benefited with two 200+ rushing yard games out of their last 3. Defensively they are the best defense that Central Florida has faced all year. 

UCF has not faced a top 60 defense all year.  Temple is a defense that can get to the QB they currently rank 15th in sack rate and are even better at home.  That's something that QB that Central Florida could struggle with here.  They have faced just one team in the top 50 in sack rate (SMU) and they forced UCF into 3 TO's.  Central Florida +11 on the season relies on winning the turnover margin to win games.  Their defense has shown holes in their last two games, and in their last two road games the offense only put up 31 points in each.  Who did they face in those road games?  The 112th, and 118th ranked defense form a yards per play allowed perspective.  Temple comes in ranking 56th. 

Texas +3.5 3.3% play 

Texas has major defensive strengths in this one something West Virginia has struggled against.  They have done well vs. the run and the pass.  Texas weaknesses right now are the injuries they have had to withstand, but let's be honest they need to win to get to a bowl game.  This is another opportunity for Tom Herman to beat a ranked opponent as well and we know Herman's success against ranked foes, and as a dog.  The good thing is I think we see more of Sam Ehlinger finally.  I gambled and thought he'd play against TCU, but he didn't and I paid for it.  He got a drive against Kansas, and I feel like it will only be a matter of time before he gets in this game and makes a difference. 

Texas defense though is the major reason I'm backing them here.  They have held both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to season lows in points.  West Virginia's offense as unstoppable as they have looked are beatable.  In their last two games they were actually shutout in the 2nd half.  That's a major red flag, and I think there is a major coaching advantage on the Texas sidelines.  This Texas team is desperate for a big win as well.  As well as they have played in games they were under dogs their fans and boosters expect wins.  Texas is 5th in the nation in points allowed in the second half so if they can get out to a fast start I can see them winning this game outright. 

LA Monroe +37 3.3% play 

This is the ultimate sandwich game for Auburn who just got done defeating #1 Georgia, and then they have Alabama on deck for the Iron Bowl and a chance at the SEC Championship game.  I don't see them taking this game very serious and we have seen Auburn relax against weaker talent.  They came off a game against Clemson at the beginning of the year and beat Mercer 24-10.  They are also 0-3 ATS in their last 3 the week before Alabama.  They are also 2-10 ATS when laying 20+ points.

For Monroe they cans core points.  They put up 52 points on App State their last time out.  App State is a good defense.  To put it in perspective App State gave up 221 yards on 44 carries and 3 rushing TD's to Georgia.  Monroe had 213 yards on 38 carries and 3 TD's.  Monroe also has just 11 TO's on the year and they will run the ball 55% of the time.  Auburn will run it 68% of the time at home.  This game should tick tick tick and 37 points is a bargain!   Oh, and Monroe has an extra week to prepare for this one. 

MTSU -3 -105 2.5% PLAY

I like the Blue Raiders in this spot as Western Kentucky is struggling to get that win to get to a bowl game.  It's no coincidence that they are 0-3 in their last 3 by running into a couple of quality teams that can pass the ball.  All year they had faced just 1 team in the top 120 in passing QB rating.  They faced 120, 85, 122, 123, 127, and 129.  Sure their pass defense was going to look prolific and still is ranked 12th.  It then faced 46, 61, 69 and got particularly exposed in the Vanderbilt game and again they will get exposed here tonight. 

Middle Tennessee got Brent Stockstill back and this is his third game back so the rust is off.  This is a balanced offense much more balanced than Western Kentucky.  They protect and get to the QB better as well.  With Stockstill they are a top 25 passing offense.  Western Kentucky's pass defense is ranked 125th in sack rate.  Giving Stockstill time is not a good thing as he should pick this defense apart on his way to scoring 30+.

For Western Kentucky, they average less than 3 yards per carry.  They go up against a defense that can certainly stop the run.  Middle Tennessee also ranks 47th in opposing QB rating.  Western Kentcuky will get some yards in this one, but at the end of the day they can not protect their QB.  White has been sacked 32 times this year and they rank 79th in sack % on drop backs.  Middle Tennessee should be able to force them into some long third downs that they won't be able to convert.  Middle Tennessee lost this 100 mile rivalry game by 1 point last year and 30 the year before.  They want this one and I think they have the better overall team and coaching staff. 

Toledo -17 2.2% play 

Toledo will bounce back here on the road against an awful Bowling Green team.  Toledo gave up 38 points on the road against Ohio last week in a meaningless game for them.  They win out and they return to the MAC Championship game which I believe they will.  For Bowling Green they have gone 2-8 to this point and have lost big against the conference best teams, 31 to Northern Illinois, 18 to Ohio both games at home.  This team has not played well at home at all.  Their road games have been a completely different story.

Toledo’s defense is the key here, because we know the offense will score against a Bowling Green defense that’s the worst in the MAC.  I expect they will play much better.  There have only been a couple of teams that scored more than 21 points on Toledo before last game, and all of them had mobile QB’s.  Tulsa, Miami, Nevada, and Ohio all have mobile QB’s.  Bowling Green does not have a mobile QB.

Line value – we are certainly getting line value here at 17 points, because of how Toledo looked in one game against Ohio.  Toledo has held conference opponents to 16 points per game before the Ohio game.  Bowling Green is averaging just 23.6 on the season and I think Toledo will have a good game plan to win this one easily even without their RB Terry Swanson.  Logan Woodside and Swanson’s backup should have a field day against this offense that is allowing 5.55 ypc in conference play, 5.61 at home along with a 141 QB rating.  Bowling Green has faced only 1 team inside the top 60 in QB rating and that was in their last game against Buffalo.  They allowed Buffalo to pass for 406 yards 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s.  Buffalo was ranked #35.  Toledo comes into this game ranked #4.  Toledo should also win the turnover battle here.  They have only lost it 3 times this season, and have 9 total turnovers on the season compared with Bowling Green’s 23.

Air Force -3 2.2% Play 

Air Force is a short favorite based on their 21-0 loss against Army last week, and Wyoming's upset of Colorado State at home.  Wyoming has been playing lights out defensively this year, but their one glaring weakness is against the run where they rank 76th in yards allowed.  Wyoming's offense is just flat out atrocious and if they are not getting turnovers they are not scoring points.  Josh Allen at QB who was supposed to be heading to the NFL may need another year after he ranks 104th in passing yards per game with the 126th rushing yardage offense.  He's completing just 55% of his passes and his rushing offense is averaging just 2.55 ypc on the road. 

Air Force just ran into an Army team that knows how to defend their offense.  Wyoming's defense has been better against the pass and has forced a ton of turnovers, but typically these triple option teams don't give it up.  I look for Air Force a team that has gone 5-3 since 2008 when following a loss to Army or Navy.  Those 3 losses came against the likes of San Diego State (2x) and TCU.  Wyoming definitely not in that conversation.

Notre Dame -3 3.3% Play

I think the Irish are well prepared for this game against Miami.  Notre Dame has by far faced the tougher schedule.  They have the 13th ranked offense from a yards per play perspective and have faced an average defense ranking 44th.  They did struggle against Georgia, but Georgia was stout against the pass and run.  Miami definitely seems to have some holes as we will talk about here having given up 200 yards rushing in 3 straight games.  They faced 78th, 12th, and 93rd ranked rushing offenses and gave up 200+ in each game.  Notre Dame ranks #1, and I know they don't rank highly passing the ball, but Winbush is definitely a threat in the passing game.  I was thoroughly impressed when he faced NC State who you could argue has a better defense than Notre Dame. 

Miami's defense has faced just 1 team in the top 50 in yards per play offense and they gave up 30 points.  That was Toledo a team from the MAC.  Overall they have faced an average opponent ranking 79th.  Compare that with Notre Dame having faced an average opponent ranking 61st.  Notre Dame has played well against the two top 20 offenses they have faced giving up just 20 points to Georgia, and 14 to USC who I realize was banged up in that game.  Miami's offense could struggle here facing the #23rd ranked defense form a yards per play.  Rozier just threw 3 interceptions against Virginia Tech who is over rated in their own right.

Notre Dame's defense has faced 4 good QB's from Wake Forest, Michigan State, Georgia, and NC State.  They've allowed 6 TD's and 4 interceptions.  They are +12 in TO margin and have advantages in the red zone, special teams, offensive and defensive line.  I like Miami, and I like Mark Richt and the job he's doing there, but I think it's a bad match-up for them, and I think Notre Dame may just be this good.  It's a short price based on what Miami did to an over rated Virginia Tech team that got crushed by Clemson and crushed in the stat sheet against West Virginia.  Notre Dame's resume is much more impressive. 

Oklahoma -6.5 4.4% Play

 I am backing this team for a second week in a row.  All this talk about Oklahoma not having a defense has given us some line value as the line has moved 1.5 points.  I actually think this is a good match-up for them facing TCU whose strength is running the ball now passing the ball.  Kenny Hill's confidence is really not there right now in my opinion and where Oklahoma has been vulnerable has been against the pass.  Hill's last 2 games 301 total passing yards 0 TD's and 2 INT's along with a fumble in the red zone.  Oklahoma's defense has allowed 3.4 yards per carry at home, and I seem to remember them defeating Ohio State on the road, another team with a good defense, great running game and questionable QB play.

Offensively, Oklahoma is the best in the nation and I don't think it's close.  They can run and pass the ball, and Baker Mayfield gets his team motivated like no other college football player.  Now, TCU is a step up in class defensively, but I do believe TCU's defense can be scored on.  When we look at TCU has only faced three top 50 offenses, 20, 3rd, and 14th.  In those 3 games they gave up an average 490 yards (which would put them 124th in the nation), and 30.3 points per game (putting them 84th in the nation).  Oklahoma #1 offense, and at home for this game where TCU played 2 of those 3 games at home and 2 of those 3 games they were out gained including by 102 yards against West Virginia. 

I get that both of these teams lost to Iowa State, but I'd point out the fact that Iowa State really came out of nowhere to beat Oklahoma, at least TCU could have a game plan against Iowa State's replacement QB Kempt.  At the end of the day this team is aware that they need to win, and their defense needs to play better.  I also don't see them letting up at all offensively making this 6.5 point spread seem really good.  I just don't think Kenny Hill can match Baker Mayfield here, and I expect Oklahoma's run defense to show up. 

Tennessee +12 2.2% play 

Old Dominion +295 2% Play

First of all Old Dominion's bowl hopes are still alive at 3-6 and after their 6-0 win last week according to head coach Wilders the energy in the locker room has changed.  The key here is whether or not they can run and stop the run.  That has been the key to victory for them this year  In wins they have been allowing just 3.17 ypc with only 2 TD's.  While in their losses they gave up 4.81 ypc and 21 TD's.  Now Old Dominion faces an FIU team that does not run teh ball very well as they are averaging just 3.81 ypc in conference and allowing 4.78.  I think Old Dominion could have some success here and pull out the victory behind the running game of Ray Lawry who had 194 yards and 3 TD's last year.

The weather is also not supposed to be great 17 mph winds with moderate rain which will favor what Old Dominion wants to do in this game.  FIU already has 6 wins, and won't want this game as much with Florida Atlantic on deck that game is much more important.  FIU is really not a good offensive team when you take away their two 30+ point games they are only averaging 16.8 ppg.  I mentioned their struggles to run the ball, their QB Alex McGough has 9TD's to 7 INT's.  FIU has also covered the spread by 2+ TD's in 3 of their last 4 weeks which means you are paying a premium to play them.  Old Dominion +9.5 is a good play, but I think they win this game outright as they are well coached.  They don't commit a lot of penalties and they have the better special teams. 

Utah +1.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

I believe Utah is floating under the radar from their 4 game losing streak earlier in the year.  We backed them last week, and they really seem to find their grove in the second half.  Now that their QB Tyler Huntley has been back a full 3 games and they have an extra day to prepare for this game I think they will be in good shape.  Utah's offense can do some really good things and Washington State's defense has really struggled on the road of late, and against mobile QB's this year.  Huntley just put up 93 yards rushing in his last game, and he's an accurate passer to go along with a weapons in the backfield in Moss, and Darren Carrington at WR who will be back for this game.

Washington State typically struggles with physical teams, and they are not used to playing in this environment where Kyle Whittingham typically upsets a ranked team each and every year.  In Utah's 5 losses they allowed 5.80 ypc and in their wins 2.96 ypc.  Washington State does not have the ability to run and balance their offense this year it's been all in the passing game which is a bad match-up for them because Utah is ranked #24 vs. the pass.  Washington State's running game is ranked 126th and is averaging just 2.3 ypc on the road.  The extra day of prep will allow this Utah defense to scheme to put Washington State in some third and long situations which typically does not bode well for them.  They have turned the ball over 23 times this year and I could see a few more in this game.

Utah should also have the edge in special teams where they rank #17 to Washington State's 106th ranking.  Add it all up and I like how Utah looks to finish the year and they also need the wins to get into a bowl game. 

Michigan -16.5 2.2% play 

Maryland could be down to their 4th string QB here, but even if they aren't they have really struggled offensively against good defenses.  They are ranked 115th in passing yards, and 56th rushing.  However, when they don't rush for 150 yards they have averaged only 14.5 points.  They lost those 4 games by an average of 29.25 points per game. Here they face the #1 passing defense, and #7 rushing defense.  I'm not sure if they will score more than 3-9 points here against this Michigan defense.

Michigan's offense has a lot to be excited for with the infusion of QB Brandon Peters they have now also started to run the ball with back to back weeks of over 300 yards.  Michigan has scored 30+ points 4 times this year and in everyone it was against a bad run defense.  Maryland ranks 86th and fits the bill here for a bad run defense which will allow Michigan to grind their way through a low scoring, but dominating game.  I look for a ton of big plays late in the game when Michigan wears this defense down.

Auburn +120 3% Play 

I like this match-up for Auburn at home.  Their two losses were in games where they struggled to protect their QB.  LSU ranks #6 in sack % and Clemson ranks #2.  Georgia has a great pass defense ranking #3 overall, but they haven't faced any good passing offenses and come in ranking #76 at getting to the QB.  They have faced 1 team in the top 57 in QB rating and that was Missouri who put up 28 points.  Although in a bit of garbage time I still think Auburn will have some luck passing the ball with Stidham compared to their two losses on the season.  Their offensive line is banged up a bit, but this is the biggest game of the year and I expect them to play. 

Speaking of which this game really does not mean much to Georgia.  With a loss they control their own destiny as they are already locked into the SEC Championship game where if they win they are in the college football playoff.  That's not to say they don't want to win this game I just feel like it's their most difficult test.  Auburn is completely balanced and nasty and are at home here.  They can stop the run, they can stop the pass, and their offense can do a little bit of both. 

Overall I expect a low scoring game, but Auburn is going to force Jake Fromm to beat them.  Fromm has faced 2 top 50 passing defenses.  @ Notre Dame who ranks #33 he was 16-29 for 141 yards 1 TD/ 1 INT and 100 QBrating not very good.  Against Tennessee he was 7-17 84 yards 1 TD/1INT for a 90 QB rating.  Auburn is definitely the best pass defense he's faced so far.

At the end of the day Auburn is at home, needs a win more, and I think should have more success offensively.  It's also worth noting these two teams have 2 common opponents and Auburn scored 14 more points and allowed 7 fewer.  Auburn also played one of the opponents on the road while Georgia played both Miss State and Missouri at home. 

Duke -2.5 3.3% play

Duke with an extra week to prepare always plays the option well.  Army is off a huge win over Air Force 21-0 where they did not have to attempt a pass.  Army really only cares about their last game of the season now when they face Navy having already accepted their bowl invitation to the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth.

Duke is used to defending the triple option as they play Georgia Tech yearly.  They held Army, a talented offense last year to just 6 points and 3 points in 2015.    Since Jim Knowles took over as defensive coordinator, Duke is 9-3 ATS vs. Army/Navy/Georgia Tech, all three run the triple option.  This year’s Duke defense is better than last year’s against the run.  Only two opponents have ran for more than 4 yards per carry on Duke this year, but they find themselves coming off 5 straight losses.  This is a big game for them with Georgia Tech and Wake Forest on deck they’ll need 2 wins in their last 3 games.  I trust David Cutcliffe will have a great plan off the bye especially offensively where they have scored 2TD’s more than their season average off the bye.  It’s worth noting that Army is ranked 115th in yards per play allowed.  Duke has faced 4 top 35 defenses over their 5 game losing streak.  

Washington/Stanford Under 48.5 1.1% Play

My numbers favor Washington, but Stanford is a tough team to go against at home as a dog.  They are 7-0 ATS the last 7 times as a home dog with 6 outright upsets and 3 times they were featured against a top 10 team like they are tonight.  However, Stanford's most glaring weakness (run defense) is Washington's biggest strength.  At the end of the day I expect Stanford to game plan for that, and this game has been circled on their calendar since their loss last year 44-6.  That doesn't mean they win the game, but I expect this to be a defensive battle. 

Stanford's offenses outside of Bryce Love has been just miserable.  Love is a big play guy and can be contained.  What I like about this match-up is that Washington is #1 in big plays allowed and have given up just 3 plays over 30 yards and 0 plays over 40 yards.  At the end of the day Washington will force KJ Costello to win this game.

Also worth noting is each team likes to run the ball well above 50%, in fact Washington is running it 66% of the time over their last 3 games.  They rank 111th, and 129th in pace.

Appalachian State -17.5 2.2% play

I believe there is value in this line with an angry Appalachian State team heading home after two straight losses.  App State got their star running back, back last game as he ran for 114 yards on 21 carries.  When he’s healthy and averages over 5 yards per carry this team has scored 54, 45, and 45 points.  He had 8.4 yards per carry against Georgia Southern last year, and GS is allowing 6.5 yards per carry in their road games this year.  Taylor Lamb at QB has also been excellent this year with 19 TD’s and 5 INT’s.  I expect them to score 40+ points in this game.

Georgia Southern, 0-8 on the season and traveling on short rest having played just 5 days ago losing to instate rival Georgia State.  This is App State’s biggest rivalry game and they have held Georgia Southern to 10 and 13 points the last two years.  Georgia Southern has had issues in the red zone and scoring points as they have converted just 42% into TD’s while App State’s defense has been dominant holding opponents to 48% and an even better 43% against conference foes.

The one match-up that looks good on paper for Georgia Southern is the running game as App State has struggled a bit compared to recent years, but Georgia Southern has no ability to pass the ball or protect their QB ranking 119th in pass protection.  This running offense that has gotten worse each of the last three years is averaging just 3.84 ypc.  2015 they were averaging over 6 ypc, last year 4.44 when App State held them to just 65 yards rushing.

App State’s defense should be motivated here against their rival to have a complete game.  Georgia Southern has nothing to play for and their interim coach already knows he’s likely not to be the guy. 

Eastern Mich / Central Mich Under 50.5 2.2% play

Eastern Michigan has had a bit of a tougher schedule and have lost a lot of close games.  I initially leaned with them, but after looking at it more I noticed Central Michigan far more dominant passing and defending the pass vs. the 4 common opponents.  Central Michigan faced 3 of 4 of those opponents on the road while Eastern Michigan faced 3 of 4 at home.

Considering both of these teams like to pass the ball and that’s how they score their points I like the under because that is the strength of each of these defenses.  In Central Michigan’s last 4 games they have allowed 0 passing TD’s 52% completion 418 total yards and forced 2 interceptions.  Against those same 4 opponents Eastern Michigan allowed 5 TD’s 1 Interception and 62% completion rate.  On the flip side Eastern has been better against the run against the common opponents allowing 3.96 ypc while Central Michigan has allowed 4.7 ypc.

There is value to the under with each team playing in overs in their last two games.  Both teams have struggled in the red zone and have defended the red zone well with under 60% TD percentage on defense and offense.

This game means more Eastern Michigan who needs a win in each of their last 3 games to go bowling, but Central Michigan needs 1 more win as well, and is at home with the extra day to prepare.  I think Eastern is the better team, but it’s a tough situation for them and I expect a close fought low scoring game on a cold night with temperatures at 34 degrees. 

Texas +235 3% play

TCU’s bubble got burst last week as they lost an ugly game at Iowa State 14-7 without scoring an offensive TD.  TCU’s QB Kenny Hill turned the ball over twice inside Iowa State’s 10 yard line and his confidence has to be shaken.  Last year he had a bad game at Kansas of all places throwing 1 TD and 3 INT’s in a 1 point victory.  TCU then went 2-4 the rest of the way as he threw just 3 TD’s and had 5 INT’s over the last 6 games.  TCU could certainly turn to the running game, but that goes right into the strength of this Texas defense that is allowing 3.09 ypc on the season 2.23 ypc on the road.

Texas is 3-0 ATS as a dog this year, but they did not taste a victory in any of those games, but they did come close.  They took USC to OT but lost by 3, they had a 4th quarter lead against Oklahoma that they lost, and then they lost by 3 against Oklahoma State where I felt Sam Ehlinger was clearly playing injured with a concussion.  Ironically, Ehlinger sits out in a meaningless game against Baylor, but is probable this week.

Tom Herman is 14-0 ATS and 11-3 straight up as a dog dating back to 2012 when he was an offensive coordinator with Ohio State.  He’s said countless times this season that a win over a ranked team would define whether or not this season was successful.  Here is the only opportunity left for the regular season and I feel like they get it here.  In reality Texas has faced a tougher schedule having played USC and Oklahoma.  TCU’s toughest opponents were Iowa State and Oklahoma State.  I thought Texas played better in both those match-ups against those common opponents, especially defensively.

Really excited to see what Sam Ehlinger has this week.  He did not have a good game against Oklahoma State although we cashed that ticket and I compared him to Tim Tebow.  I think the concussion like symptoms had a lot to do with it. 

Oklahoma +105 5.5% play of the day

This is by far the best offense that Oklahoma State has faced.  Baker Mayfield is a beat with his 23 passing TD’s and just 3 INT’s and I love how fiery he is in games.  He really gets his team fired up.  IT was obviously when they went on the road and defeated Ohio State that they were the better team in that game.  I just think this team loses focus at times and we can be assured that doesn’t happen in their biggest game of the year.

For Oklahoma State they have probably looked worse in games than they are.  Mason Rudolph has had some struggles with the injuries to the offensive line.  It’s said that they are as healthy as they have been in a while on the offensive line, but that can certainly change in a heart beat as this team does not have a lot of depth there.

Oklahoma’s defense is capable of shutting teams down when they want to.  They can also play ball control, and are getting their RB Abdul Adams back who is fully healthy and averaging 10.4 yards per carry.  Oklahoma State has allowed 3 teams to run for more than 200 yards so they are vulnerable there and every team is vulnerable against Baker Mayfield.  I just think the wrong team is favored here and I’ll take Oklahoma on the money line to win and stay in the college football race. 

West Virginia -3 -1.05 4.4% play

Iowa State going on the road after 4 weeks in a row of covering the spread by 14+ points.  It’s rare that you see a top 15 team going on the road facing a team that is not ranked and they are under dogs, but we have that here with Iowa State and for good reason.  Iowa State is one dimensional offensively and have struggled to get the running game going all year long ranking 108th in ypc.  Their offense really consists of targeting the big guys they have on the outside, but West Virginia’s secondary actually has some size and match-up well here in my opinion.

West Virginia offensively I think we know they are an elite passing attack.  Their three losses were against teams that were 9th, 13th, and 34th against the pass.  Iowa State is 65th in passing yards allowed.  All three of those teams had offenses ranked in the top 50 in yards per play.  Iowa State comes in ranked #65 in yards per play offense. In 2 of those 3 games West Virginia actually outplayed their opponents.  They outgained TCU by 102 yards, and they outgained Virginia Tech by 123.

Iowa State is not a sexy team.  They do it with bend but don’t break defense, and they do it by turning the ball over.  They should have lost that game last week, but TCU turned the ball over twice inside the 10.  That match-up was actually a better match-up for Iowa State than this week.  The weakness of Iowa State’s defense is the passing defense and Will Grier should be able to carve them up.  West Virginia has outgained Iowa State in each of the last three years by 114.3 yards per game and they have won those games by 30, 24, and 13.  Iowa State is no longer sneaking up on teams, and they have clearly been adjusted.

Uconn +24 2.2% play / Uconn +1420 0.25%

South Florida’s bubble got burst last week and I have been saying for weeks they were a vulnerable team.  This is the third week in a row we are fading South Florida and why not we are 2-0 ATS in doing so.  This is a team that is not nearly as good as last year offensively where they are one dimensional.  South Florida’s defense has played well and carried this team, but they haven’t faced any offenses that are any good.  This will actually be their toughest challenge against Uconn this week.

South Florida hasn’t faced a top 50 passing offense.  Uconn ranks 23rd in passing yards and 24th in passer rating.  Bryan Shirreffs also takes care of the ball as he has 13 TD’s 4 INT’s he’s completing 65% of his passes and has the ability to stretch the field with 9.1 yards per attempt.  South Florida has faced an average passing offense ranked 91st.  They faced Houston a week ago who ranked 54th and they lost the game.  Now Houston has a far superior defense compared to Uconn, but I think Uconn’s defense may surprise them a bit here.  Keep in mind Uconn has faced some really good offenses this year and their last three losses were against offenses that could run and pass and ranked 12th, 13th, and 14th in the nation in yards per play.  South Florida ranks 43rd and is a one man show in Quinton Flowers.

I may be wrong, but I see this team coming out a little flat after losing their first game of the year in bad fashion.  South Florida had the hopes of a New Year’s day Bowl and now that’s probably gone.  

Florida +140 3% play

Missouri is a different team against non-power 5 opponents.  Over the past two years they have averaged 63 points per game against non-power 5 opponents.  Then they play a power 5 team and only average 20 points per game.  Drew Lock, the Missouri QB playing with a ton of confidence right know but he’s going to face off against a Florida team that will be defensive minded with their defensive coach taking over in Randy Shannon.

I like backing a team in situations like this we have already seen what it has done for Oregon State in back to back easy covers.  UTEP, Georgia Southern also got rid of their coaches this year and covered the spread in their first week.  Despite what you hear the sky is not actually falling for Florida Gators and they should be just fine. 

Missouri also part of my elusive list of covering the spread by 14+ points in back to back weeks.  

Indiana +14 3.3% play +420 1% play

There is value in this line because Indiana lost at Maryland last week.  Indiana actually outgained Maryland 483-345 and had 35 first downs to 18.  The good news is Indiana’s defense was only on the field for 18 plays which is the key to upsetting Wisconsin this week which I do feel like they have a shot.  Indiana has been close a few times this season.  Even their game against Ohio State to open the year was 21-20 late in the third quarter before Ohio State took over and they did it with 2 big plays.  Wisconsin is not a big play offense, and are also used to playing in tight games.

Indiana might be without their QB Peyton Ramsey, but Wisconsin also could be without their best offensive player in Johnathan Taylor at RB.  Indiana has a senior QB to fall back in on Richard Lagow who passed for 410 yards against Ohio State.  Wisconsin plays a similar defense with the man to man and I think if Lagow is out there it will be a benefit for the offense.  Indiana definitely has a guy on offense that can take the game over in Simmie Cobbs at WR.  ON the flip side Wisconsin has not faced a single unit in the top 70 in passing offense.  Indiana is not ranked in the top 70 either, but I think they are capable of playing better than their ranking with Lagow in their especially for the passing game.

Wisconsin is going up against a very under rated run defense here.  Indiana is ranked 35th in the nation, but this unit keeps them in games.  They held Penn State to a season low 39 yards on the road to put it into perspective.  Wisconsin is 19th running the ball, but they have faced just two top 50 running defenses.  Those games they won by 9 and 8 points respectively, but both at home.  This game on the road and really reminds me of Northwestern vs. Wisconsin.  The difference in that game was an INT returned for a TD, and a safety.  Indiana has a lot of similarities to Northwestern defensively especially and are a bit better on the offensive line from a blocking perspective.

It helps that Indiana is in a bit of desperation mode here needing 3 wins in their final 4 games.  Tom Allen is a very good coach and in each of the two games this year they that they lost by more than 14 points they were misleading finals.  Against Ohio State we mentioned, and Penn State only outgained this team by 18 yards.  Wisconsin has the added pressure of being ranked #4 in the AP poll, but out of the college football playoff picture.  Just think this is a one possession game.  Indiana will have a shot to pull the upset like they have against Michigan State, and Michigan.

Utah -6.5 3.3% play

Utah has to get back on track after four straight losses.  They actually lost ATS by 30 and 23 points and Vegas has had to make an adjustment.  Actually teams that have not covered the spread in back to back weeks by 14+ points (2TD’s) have gone 8-2 ATS that third week.  This team is much better than they have played of late after nearly beating Stanford and USC they have had a tough go of it losing big ATS so let’s take a look at those two games and why we like Utah here.

Against Arizona State, they finally got their QB Tyler Huntley back, but Huntley had 4 INT’s in that game 1 that went back for a TD, and Utah allowed 205 yards on the ground.  Their next game at Oregon was no better as they allowed 347 yards on the ground, but Huntley showed signs throwing for 293 yards 2 TD’s and 0 INT”s which is impressive against a very good Oregon defense ranking 32nd in yards per play allowed.  UCLA ranks 108th by the way.  They also struggled going 1-4 on 4th down in that game.  Now they come back home and the rust has been shaken off their QB and I think they are poised for a blowout and their best game.

Utah is a far better coached team going up against a defense that ranks among the worst in the nation against the run allowing 6.05 yards per carry, 6.75 on the road and 23 rushing TD’s.  They have lost all 4 road games by an average 16.5 points per game.  On the flip side Utah’s pass defense is their strength which is a good match up against UCLA.  Josh Rosen has not played well against top 50 pass defenses with only 6 TD’s and 6 INT’s in those games.  UCLA has the 75th ranked rushing offense and likely will abandon it anyway very early in this game.  Right now Utah seems to be weak against the run, but UCLA won’t even try to attack it.  Utah needs a win at home desperately.  They will likely be dogs in 2 of their next 3 games so they’ll need a big time victory and UCLA is sure to serve it up to them here on Friday night.

Northern Illinois +8.5 5.5% POD

Northern Illinois has faced 5 top 76 teams compared to Toledo’s 2.  They both fared similarly against Eastern Michigan at home, and overall I would say these two teams are about even with their strengths and weaknesses.  I’d say the biggest advantage in this game is Northern Illinois rushing offense against Toledo’s rushing defense which ranks 104th.  Northern Illinois has been able to run the ball much better since Freshman QB Marcus Childers has taken over and he’s only getting better.  Childers just had a good game passing the ball as well against Eastern Michigan who ranked #32 vs. the pass.  The advantage that Toledo has in this game is certainly with their special teams that ranks 7th compared to Northern Illinois at 116.  However, Carey is a good coach and I think he’ll be looking hard at that this week.

Northern Illinois is not as skilled on offense as Toledo who can run and pass the ball, but their defense and rushing offense should control this game.  Northern Illinois defense ranks #6 vs. the run and they have faced an average opponent ranking 87th.  However, against Boston College, Nebraska and San Diego State they only allowed 293 yards and 2.23 ypc.  They actually played up to their competition and I expect them to step up against Toledo.  Now there is no question neither one of those teams has a Logan Woodside at QB – 19TD/2INT’s on the season so let’s look at that.

Woodside has actually gotten the majority of those stats against defenses ranking 127, 126, 77th, 119 – 16 TD/ 2INT.  Against passing defenses in the same caliber as Northern Illinois (13, 32, 15), Northern Illinois ranks #22.  He completing 60.7% of his passes 240 yards per game, 3 total TD’s 0 INT’s.  Northern Illinois can actually get to the QB much like Miami as they rank 19th in the country in sack %.  I expect Woodside to put up a lot of yards like he has against quality defenses, but struggle in the red zone.  It’s worth noting he just lost his top target Cody Thompson in the last game for the season and this offense has only scored TD’s 50% of the time in the red zone.  Northern Illinois defense is allowing only 33% TD percentage in the red zone.  Compare it with Northern Illinois 58% on offense, and Toledo’s alarming 80.95% TD’s allowed in the red zone.  Northern Illinois is also top 25 in big plays allowed.

The only reason Toledo is favored here is because their only loss is against Miami, but they were blown out in that game.  Miami has played a lot of close games this year so that loss is a little more alarming.  Northern Illinois dominated their game on the road against San Diego State doubling them in yardage, but lost the game.  They lost by 3 to open the season against Boston College and are a play or two away from being undefeated and if that were the case we would have a +3 spread here.  Bottom line I think the coaching advantage is on Northern Illinois side.  Candle has done a great job with Toledo, but it’s been against a weak schedule.  Northern Illinois has actually dominated this match-up.  They lost by 7 last year in a down year, but had won 6 straight previously.  This will be a close game and come down to the wire with Northern Illinois having a chance to pull the outright upset!  The weather also favors Northern Illinois as it’s supposed to have a chance of rain and 10-15mph winds.  Northern Illinois has the more mobile QB, and the better defense here getting 8.5 points is a bargain when you consider bad weather wind+rain will lead to lower scores.

Clemson -14 2.2% play

Clemson holds some value this week off a bye and Georgia Tech off a misleading 14 point win over Wake Forest, and another misleading loss to Miami who outgained Georgia Tech by 200 yards.  This is the second week in a row that Georgia Tech will face a team off a bye, but this team on the road.  Clemson has held Georgia Tech’s triple option to less than 100 yards each of the last two years while beating them by 19 points in each match-up.  We are quickly learning that Syracuse is a good team as they took Miami to the wire they also gave LSU and NC State issues. 

Clemson lost at Syracuse and now has to feel pretty disrespected now #7 in the polls.  With Kelly Bryant listed as probable and this line moving in our favor to a key number of 14 it’s worth a play here as Clemson gets back into the college football playoff discussion with a big win. 

Houston +11 3.3% play

Houston has extra time to prepare for this game as they played last Thursday night.  They will be the best defense that South Florida has faced and it’s not even close.  Yes Houston ranks 58th in yards per play but they faced 4 top 30 offenses and held them all to season lows before Texas Tech only scored 13 a week ago.  They held Memphis in check for the first half and blew a 2nd half 17 point lead proving though that they can contend with any team in this conference.  They have played a far tougher schedule and their win over Arizona earlier this year looks even better right now.

South Florida scored 33, and 34 the last two weeks against 97th ranked defense and 119th ranked defense.  I realize Tulane got a back door cover, but Tulane really missed on so many opportunities early in that game moving the ball for 405 yards and 6.29 yards per play.  Also proving that the South Florida defense is vulnerable.  South Florida’s defense has not faced anyone that can move the ball yet and while Houston is no juggernaut they can stay within this 11 points.  As the season progresses the pressure is going to continue to weigh on South Florida and this is just one of those games where I’m taking the better defense.  South Florida’s offensive line is ranked 104th in adjusted rank and now they go up against Ed Oliver who can single handily win this game for Houston who ranks 32nd on the defensive line.

NC State +7 3.3% play

Both teams come in with 1 loss to SEC team.  NC State lost despite doubling South Carolina in yardage while Notre Dame found a way to lose despite being +2 in TO Margin.  To me both teams are pretty even with Notre Dame’s strength being their offensive line, and NC State’s strength being their defensive line.  However, there is line value on the road team here with NC State off a bye along with Notre Dame’s fat and happy win over USC last week where everyone saw the game.

Notre Dame relies heavily on running the ball and are averaging 317 yards per game 7.1 yards per carry.  Winbush really hasn’t been a threat to throw the ball 116 QB rating 51.7% completion rate just 6 yards per attempt.  That’s really NC State’s weakness here as they are ranked 14th in defending the run.  Notre Dame has really inflated offensive numbers running the ball.  Against Michigan State and Georgia they have just 200 yards rushing.  They have really dominated the weaker opponents having faced rushing defenses ranked 101, 112, 80, 90, and 85th.  Against tougher competition it’s been proven you can stop this rushing offense.

NC State’s rushing defense hasn’t faced many good rushing offenses either outside of Louisville who is ranked #7 with a mobile QB in Lamar Jackson.  They held Louisville to 116 yards rushing and I would say Jackson is a better passer than Winbush.  I think there is more proof that NC State can stop the run than there is Notre Dame can run against really good defenses.

Now Notre Dame also good at stopping the run ranking 25th, but again they have faced poor running offenses and last week they faced a banged up USC offense.  This week NC State’s offense is not spectacular and rank 61st running the ball, but Ryan Finley their QB hasn’t turned the ball over.  They faced running defenses ranked 29, 17, 44, 52, 50, and 99.

Both defenses have been excellent in the red zone and turnover margin.  I feel like strength of schedule is about even as well.  AT the end of the day I think there is just too much line value.  NC State has only turned the ball over 3 times all year.  Michigan State is getting a lot of credit right now while NC State is off a bye and it weren’t for NC State’s poor special teams play where they rank 121st I’d be playing this as my POD. 

TCU -6.5 4.4% NCAAF POD

I liked the Horned Frogs here who are probably an unpopular favorite this week.  Iowa State has covered 3 straight weeks by 14+ points against the spread and are now ranked #25, but they are stepping up in class this week against TCU.

TCU’s attention is on Iowa State who they know are a threat to their college football playoff spot.  This team is well focused for this game and I think should hold Iowa State’s offense in check.  Kyle Kempt the walk on QB for Iowa State has completed 70% of his passes 7TD’s and 1 INT, but has gone against the 97th, 129th, and 87th ranked pass defenses.  Here he will face TCU who ranks #32 overall, but are also dominant vs. the run and are holding opponents to 47.6% completion percentage.  That’s key here as Iowa State has been unable to run the ball consistently.  TCU should have a good defensive game plan here.

TCU has been very good on the road and I have to admit that Kenny Hill has been impressive in a balanced offense.  Iowa State has also benefited from facing teams with poor special teams rankings.  Oklahoma 123rd, Texas Tech 91st, and Kansas 110th.  This week they face TCU who is ranked #2 in special teams.  They also face off in a game where they don’t have the coaching edge.  I really like Matt Campbell, but Gary Patterson is simply one of the best. 

Virginia +135 2% Dog of the Week

A couple of weeks ago and Virginia might have been a short favorite.  Pitt last week was actually trailing 17-7 at Duke before they were able to get a 92 yard TD run to make it 17-14 before they went on to win and cover for us.  Virginia was a 7 point favorite last week against Boston College which just seems wrong now, but I think this is a big over reaction.  I have Virginia has a better team ranking #58 to Pitt ranking #98 yet Pitt is favorite based on last week.

Virginia in last week’s game actually gave up two huge plays that were the difference.  A 76 yard screen play and a 76 yard run.  Pitt had their big 92 yard TD run also a big difference in their game.  These 3 plays alone probably shaped this line.  First of all Virginia is ranked 15th in explosive plays allowed and are a well-coached defense under Bronco Mendenhall.  Pitt actually ranks 121st in explosive plays allowed and rank 126th in explosive passing plays allowed. 

Virginia’s QB Kurt Benkert is the key.  In Virginia wins he has a 152 QB rating and in their losses an 83 QB rating.  Their two losses came against passing defenses ranked 7th and 53rd.  Indiana has the 53rd ranked passing defense, but overall they are 22nd in yards per play allowed.  Pitt is 104th in passing defense and 117th in yards per play allowed which is a big difference here.  Meanwhile, Pitt’s on its backup QB in Ben DiNucci which is a downgrade from Max Browne.  This is a good match up for Virginia this week and a huge game if they want to go bowling as they will likely be dogs in their last 4 games against Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech. 

Wake Forest +3 2.2% Play

Wake Forest had a 21-13 lead over Georgia Tech last week and ended up losing 38-24 in misleading fashion.  I think they have an excellent shot at upsetting Louisville who is just off a big road victory at Florida State.  They were lucky to be in that spot as Florida State fumbled with under 2 play while heading into the red zone.  That gives us line value here. 

Wake Forest is definitely better on offense this year and Louisville’s defense is definitely worse.  Wake is still strong on defense ranking 21st in yards per play allowed and are well coached under Dave Clawson.  They have just 4 TO’s on the year they play good fundamental defense and limit their mistakes with penalties.  In last year’s game they held a 12-3 lead at half time and a 12-10 lead in the 4th quarter before Lamar Jackson took over scoring the final 34 points in the 4th quarter to win 44-12.

Earlier in the year they hosted Florida State had a late lead and were tied 19-19 in the 4th quarter before giving up a TD with less than 1 to play to lose by 7.  They actually outgained Florida State by 100 yards in that game.  I would have this as a premium play and maybe even calling for the upset if I felt confident Wake could close games out.  Nonetheless it’s still a play I like here! 

Baylor +9 3.3% play

This is exactly the type of game that Tom Herman would drop before facing another opponent in TCU on deck.  Baylor has been close against Oklahoma and West Virginia two ranked opponents.  Texas is giving Sam Ehlinger a week off and going with Shane Buechele, the starter from last year.  I think Buechele’s confidence probably hurting here and Texas main goal is to defeat a team in contention.  That’s what they would call a successful season.  Right now I see Herman and this team in a major let down spot in an interesting sandwich game before their game against TCU.

Baylor’s head coach Matt Rhule’s team is slowly getting better with each week.  Holding West Virginia to 38 and scoring 36 was impressive.  Only TCU and Virginia Tech’s defense held West Virginia to fewer points and yards.  Baylor’s offense actually outgained West Virginia in the game and they get Texas this week who is not nearly as explosive.  I would not be shocked to see Baylor pull the upset here as they are at home in an early game and looking for their first win.  

Florida State -3 -1.20 as a 3.3% play. 

Boston College was on our sell high list for this week’s podcast   BC has covered the spread by more than 14 points in back to back week’s and have been impressive in doing so against the likes of Louisville and Virginia.  Boston College got their running game going rushing for 237 and 364 and that was the difference.  Against Florida State they are going to have a tough time running the ball in my opinion.  

Florida State ranks similar to BC’s recent opponents against the run ranking 44th form a rushing yards per carry perspective.  Louisville ranks 50th, and Virginia ranks 56th.  From that perspective you would assume BC would be able to run the ball here, but I actually think they can’t.  Florida State’s defense is really under rated and have played a tough schedule.  I think they are a top 20 defense, and facing a one dimensional attack they should be able to shut this offense down.  

When looking at Boston College’s recent opponent run defenses we find out that Virginia played an average opponent ranking 92nd in rushing offense. When looking at Louisville they have played an average opponent rank of 72nd in rushing offense.   Florida State has faced three top 30 rushing offenses with an overall 44th ranking.  So I think Florida State’s defense can dominate in this game.

Offensively is where Florida State has struggled and we have to bring it up.  Florida State however is finally playing a poor defense.  Boston College ranking 112th vs. the run.  Obviously Florida State with an inexperienced QB in James Blackman who cost them their last game against Louisvile in the final minute needs to run the ball.  Watch out for freshman Cam Akers in this one who will be getting the bulk of the carries.  Florida State has faced very good run defenses so far ranking 1, 14, 41, 58, 55, 50.  The 58th ranked run defense was Miami who is better than that ranking.  

Motivation is the last thing we want to look at.  No doubts Florida State had higher hopes this year.  They came in ranked #2 in the country, but the hurricane really threw their season off along with the injury to their QB Francois.  They are playing a lot of young players now on offense, and it is pivotal that they get to a bowl game and get extra practice.  Jimbo Fisher is a good coach and I think this is just the week it happens where they get a big win.  I’m not concerned with the short week and travel they just have a big talent edge.  Fisher typically will concentrate on running the ball more on the road which is what this team should have been doing all along.

Michigan +9.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Michigan is getting a lot of points in this one in my opinion and Harbough has only lost 7 games since he’s been at Michigan and they have been all close besides a loss to Ohio State, a team that went onto win the National Championship.  Otherwise his losses have been by 4, 1, 1, 3, 4, and 7. 

Michigan can shut down Barkley in this game as they are the #5 run defense.  We saw Indiana shut down Barkley recently holding this offense to 39 rushing yards.  The same Indiana defense that just gave up 271 to Michigan.  Actually, I think Michigan might have found confidence and a running game in that game a week ago with Kavan Higdon 25 rushes for 200 yards.  That was against Indiana with the #22 defensive line, #48 in power success defense.  Now Michigan although going on the road could have some success running the ball as they face Penn State who ranks 37th in defensive line, but an alarming 104th in power success defense.  Look at the offenses Penn State has faced from a rushing ypc perspective – 116, 118, 108, 98, 103, and 100.  They gave up 150+ yards 3 times.  Nobody likes to run the power run game more than Harbough and that will allow him to keep this game close in my opinion.

Penn State has also only faced one defense ranked in the top 50 in passing defense and that was Iowa.  They nearly lost on the road against Iowa it took a beautiful, if not lucky pass by McSorley on the road to pull the 21-19 victory over Iowa.  Iowa actually not one of those teams that Penn State faced with a good run defense.  I’ve heard many say that if you like Michigan parlay it with the under, but this total is very low.  I expect Michigan to have success on offense in their power running game while Penn State should have success in the passing game.  McSorley is very under rated, and has good receivers and a TE target that Michigan has not seen yet.  When it’s all said and done I feel it comes down to a field goal and Penn State will pull it off, but I also wouldn’t be shocked to see it go the other way. 

Tulane +11.5  3.3% & ML +370 0.5%

South Florida has to be peaking ahead to Houston at home next week and that’s a dangerous proposition when you are facing an option team on the road.  South Florida has played the easiest schedule and their defense that is looking like a top 25 unit is not!  South Florida has only faced one offense ranked in the top 100 in yards per play.  Yet they are still allowing 17.2 points per game.  Tulane is ranked 65th, and has a unique offense that has put up points this year.  Let’s not forget the 62 they hung on Tulsa the week before last.

I feel like we are getting excellent value with Tulane here off the loss as a double digit favorite.  Meanwhile, South Florida beat Cinci 33-3, but Cinci turned the ball over twice in the red zone, and threw a pick six to end the half on an untimed play otherwise our pick of Cinci +24 last week would have been a winner.  Remember, South Florida’s run defense last year was not very good allowing 4.48 yards per carry and their match up with Navy, a triple option they gave up 317 at home.  The only game Tulane did not rush for 200 yards was against Navy where they had 191 and they nearly won that game.  I see Tulane bouncing back and even having a shot to pull the upset here as South Florida looks ahead to Houston.

Oregon +220 2.5% DOG OF THE WEEK

I have this game as a pk, but recent perception on Oregon who just had to go against two tough defenses with a new QB had them in two blowouts.  Oregon’s offense right now needs to run the ball as Braxton Burmeister can not throw.  Luckily UCLA is ranked 129th in rushing yards per carry allowed, and Oregon should be able to run the ball in this game.

On the flip side UCLA has Washington next, but before they get to that game they face off against Oregon who has the best defense they have faced all year.  Yes, you read that right as Oregon ranks 27th in yards per play allowed.  The next closest opponent UCLA faced was 47th.  Oregon should be able to create a bit of havoc here as they rank 20th in sack rate, and Josh Rosen is playing behind an offensive line that is ranked 106th in adjusted line yards.  Not to mention UCLA also has a one dimensional offense.  I’ll lean towards the coaching advantage on Oregon’s sideline on this one as Jim Leavitt is one of the best defensive minded coaches around and has shown great improvement in this defense in just one year.  

Pitt +8 2.2% PLAY

I think there is some decent value here with Pitt this week who is in desperation mode having only won 2 games they need a win here in order to get on a run to get to a bowl.  Their problem so far has been a tough schedule.  Pitt’s offense ranks 98th, and they lost their QB Max Browne, but I don’t see that as a big loss, and they have faced several tough defenses on the year including 4 top 50 defenses with an overall opponent rank of average at 47.33.  Compare that with Duke whose offense is ranked 115th in yards per play having faced 50th average opponent.  I think both offenses are about even at this point.

Now Pitt’s defense has been really disappointing ranking 122nd, but they have faced 4 top 32 programs while Duke who has a 42nd ranked defense has only faced 1 opponent in the top 80 in offense.  The non-conference schedule is really the difference where Duke faced Northwestern and Baylor and Pitt played Penn State and Oklahoma State, two top 10 teams.  Pitt finally faces a one dimensional offense and it’s actually the worst offense they have faced all year.  Pitt wins this game if they can stop the run.  Duke’s QB Daniel Jones has not played well throwing the ball with just 6TD’s and 5 INT’s while connecting on just 55.6% of his throws and 5.4 yds/attempt. 

Pitt’s offense won’t blow us away in this game, but they faced a Syracuse team on the road and only lost by 3.  The same margin that Clemson lost by a week ago.  I like the fact that Pitt has a great advantage in the red zone allowing just 56% TD’s while Duke struggles at 44% on offense.  Duke also 63.64% TD percentage allowed while Pitt when they get into the red zone score a TD 68% of the time.  Pitt also has the advantage on special teams ranking 22nd overall compared to 80th for Duke.  Pitt also the least penalized team in this match up with just 3.4 per game compared to 5.3 for Duke.  Pitt has struggled on the offensive line allowing 19 sacks, but Duke has also allowed 19.  Both teams are + in TO margin.  Overall I have a 3 point advantage on the spread I feel the tougher schedule and desperation on the Pitt side offers good value and I’m not concerned about the QB situation for Pitt.

Texas +7 –105 2.5% Play

Surprisingly this hasn’t been a hangover spot for Texas following the Red River Rivalry.  They have gone 18-1 SU and 14-4 ATS following their match-up with Oklahoma.  Texas nearly won last week and it looks like they found a QB for the future in Sam Ehlinger who was impressive in that game really took it over and is tough as nails.  Really reminds me of Tim Tebow.  Now Tom Herman facing another ranked team and is a dog.  This is the third time this year previously at USC and Oklahoma both games they had 4th quarter leads.  Herman is 13-0 ATS as a dog since 2012 when he was an OC at Ohio State and he has 11 outright upsets.

Now, I do see Oklahoma State being able to throw the ball in this one which is a reason why this is not a higher ranked play.  However, I think Texas can keep Oklahoma State off the field with the play of Ehlinger and the running game.  Oklahoma State has given up 200+ yards rushing three times this year.  Oklahoma State to me has played a far weaker schedule when you look at it and Texas probably more prepared for this offense than any.  Texas defense has already seen 2 NFL QB’s this year in Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield.  I think they will be able to force Mason Rudolph into a couple of mistakes that give them a chance to win.

Texas has also faced a much tougher schedule.  Even their loss against Maryland was when Maryland was healthy. They played Iowa State on the road better than any other team this year in the 17-7 win.  Texas has gotten close to beating those teams as dogs this year, but both of those games were not in their own building.  Here they will be able to finally possibly put a game away in the 4th quarter with that defense. 

Old Dominion +8 3.3% play / ODU +260 1% play

Coaching mismatch here with Bobby Wilder over MIke Sandford who has to take his Western Kentucky on the road on a short week.  That's not easy when you don't have a lot of experience.  Western Kentucky won last week 45-14, but they beat arguably the worst team in college football in Charlotte.  Charlotte's defensive line is ranked #130, and #129 in adjusted sack rate, and finally this Western Kentucky offensive line that ranks 130th had time to throw and the results were great.  However, this week they go on the road to face Old Dominion who actually is ranked 10th in adjusted sack rate, and 2nd in sack rate on passing downs.  This is really a bad match up for Western Kentucky and they have proven nothing to deserve to be more than a TD favorite on the road.

Old Dominion also getting healthier with Ray Lawry at RB coming back last week.  Western Kentucky's offense is a shell of what it was last year.  They have struggled despite playing defenses ranked 114th, 93rd, 70th, 80th and 72nd.  I expect Old Dominion, a well coached team to be in this one until the end. 

Houston -3 4.4% NCAAF POD

Memphis ranked #25 and is a dog here this week.  We have seen this before as Memphis will likely get much of the money leading up to kickoff.  However, looking at the adjusted statistic ratings as well as the efficiency ratings combined has Houston as the #26 team, and Memphis as #57.. Yet the Oddsmakers are calling this a pk on a neutral field?  Houston also has the benefit in this game of being at home having just played on Saturday while Memphis was in a tough match-up against Navy and pulled the upset.  1, it's not easy traveling on short rest in college football, 2, it's not easy playing the next week after the triple option, 3, it's not easy after getting a huge win like that game against Navy as Memphis is in a major letdown spot even though they are playing this game with a chance to get to the AAC Title game.

Houston wants revenge for losing last year in this one and the only reason they are short favorites is the perception of the offenses.  Memphis has a dynamic offense, but they have ran it up against bad defenses.  Their adjusted efficiency offense is actually ranked #74, and they are stronger passing the ball.  Their QB Riley Fergusson is not 100% and he goes up against Houston's defense that has already played 3 top 50 passing offenses and held Texas Tech & Arizona to season lows in points.  They actually rank 14th in opposing QB rating and it's just not a good match-up for Memphis.  Also worth noting that when Houston lost last year it was on the road and it came after an upset of Louisville who was ranked in the top 5 at the time.

For Houston the key match up is going up against this Memphis defense which is actually better than the stats suggest.  I'm not lost in that as they rank 34th in adjusted defense.  However, their weakness comes against the run where they rank 93rd overall in rushing yards per carry.  They rank 113th in power success rate defense.  Houston should be able to play to their strengths which is a big key for them winning a game.  Houston averages 4.93 ypc in their wins, and 3.28 ypc in their losses this year.  last year they were also +1.24 ypc in their wins and the year before +1.69.  It's no secret what their key to victory is and it seems like they should have enough success on Thursday night at home.  Memphis has allowed 6.23 ypc in their two road games and they have allowed everyone to rush for more than 4.62 ypc with the exception of LA Monroe, and FCS foe Southern Illinois.

Line value?  We talk about this along with perception on our podcast and we certainly have it here with Houston losing to Tulsa 45-17 last week after Tulsa had lost 3 in a row.  Houston was only out gained in that game by 12 yards, but turned the ball over far too many times.  Tulsa was also desperate for a win after facing 3 option teams in a row.

Nebraska +24.5 3.3% Play

Ohio State is not 12 points better than Wisconsin.  Wisconsin was a 12.5 point favorite here a week ago although they did cover it this is a very inflated line based on recent bias as Ohio State has been on fire covering spreads.  Ohio State has faced defenses ranked 88, 100, 108, 119 the last 4 weeks and the offense is clicking, but with their bye approaching next week before Penn State I’m not so sure they get a lead and get conservative in this game.  Ohio State has been dominating of late by so much people forget how average they were in their first two games against good defenses.  Nebraska has a good defense still especially at home under the lights.

Nebraska has to feel like they owe their fans something here.  They were blown out 62-3 last year against Ohio State and that probably has a lot to do with this line here, but they lost their QB early in that game and you could see the team give up.  This is the biggest underdog role Nebraska has been at home in over 40 years.  Before last week’s loss to Wisconsin, Nebraska had won 20 straight games under the lights at home and I think they can be competitive here.  Ohio State’s offense is not nearly what it’s been of late.  Remember the talks of JT. Barret being benched?  Oh what facing 4 poor defenses will do.  Nebraska is actually by far the best pass defense Ohio State has faced all year.  Urban Meyer is no dummy he will keep the ball on the ground and use the recipe that Wisconsin did a week ago.

Nebraska’s offense I think could do a little damage here.  Ohio State’s weakness is in the secondary although you wouldn’t know it since they have not faced a team with a passing game since the Oklahoma game.  Tanner Lee just came up with 271 yards and they are not afraid to chuck it down the field.  I’d make this a higher rated play if I felt like Lee could be better with turning the ball over.  I would even call for a possible upset if I knew Lee would take care of the ball, but that’s not the case.  I expect a similar game to the Wisconsin game a week ago with Ohio State playing more conservative than they have in recent games as they go into their bye.

Texas +9 3.3% Play

The Red River Rivalry is a must win game for Oklahoma after they lost last week as 30+ point favorites.  Under Bob Stoops they were 28-0 after a loss, but Lincoln Riley after going up to Ohio State and defeating them as a TD dog has struggled in back to back games now.  Baylor hung in their game against Oklahoma and torched that pass defense, and then after Oklahoma had a bye they gave up another big day in the air to Iowa State who started their back up who had only attempted 2 passes and was a walk on as Oklahoma went down.  Now many are going to rush to back Oklahoma, but I would say hold your horses.. No pun intended.

Tom Herman vs. a ranked opponent and as a dog has been outstanding. Dating back to 2012 where he was the offensive coordinator at Ohio State he’s been a dog 11 times and has gone 11-0 ATS winning outright 10 times.  The only loss this year at USC by 3 points in OT as a 17 point underdog.  Herman, beat this Oklahoma team last year with Houston as a double digit dog and he had his defensive coordinator Todd Orlando with him.  Orlando is already improving this defense in a short period of time.  They went on the road on a short week and held Iowa State to 256 yards, 4 yards per play on a Thursday night and just 7 points.  The same Iowa State team that just put up 38 points at Oklahoma with 449 yards and 7.61 yards per play.

No doubt about it here Oklahoma has the better defense, but it will be interesting to see as these teams are very familiar with each other in this rivalry.  Todd Herman and his staff also familiar with Oklahoma from last year.  I expect Oklahoma to struggle a bit here, and I expect Texas offense to start to catch up with the defense now that they have made the switch to Sam Ehlinger.

Ehlinger made a start at USC and threw for 298 yards against the #20 defense.  He made the start last week against #29 ranked passing defense Kansas State and he had 380 yards passing and added 107 yards.  Ehlinger made a couple of rookie mistakes vs. USC that cost them that win, but he’s definitely the better fit for this offense as he’s also mobile.  He is now going up against Oklahoma ranked #89 vs. the pass and I expect Texas to score to put themselves in position to win.  At the end of the day we still don’t know what Lincoln Riley is as a coach.  The Ohio State win was impressive, but the last two weeks have not been.  Especially when you consider you had a bye before Iowa State.  Many times Herman has been a double digit dog and has pulled the outright upset.  Texas has been close in previous years with far worse coaching wouldn’t be shocked to see it here. 

Northern Illinois -5.5 3.3% play

I almost took Northern Illinois a week ago against Kent State, but the weather held me back as they were a big favorite.  They nearly covered anyway, but the under was my play and it was an easy winner.  Northern Illinois defense was on the field for just 60 plays compared to Buffalo’s defense for 99 plays in their 7 OT loss to Western Michigan.  Teams playing the week after an OT game never a great play and we will be fading that with a team we have liked in back to back weeks.

Northern Illinois thoroughly out played San Diego State #19 on the road, but turned the ball over countless times.  This week they travel on the road again, but they are playing a very bad defense in Buffalo.  Northern Illinois has shuffled QB’s and this week they have all 3 healthy.  I expect to see a mix as last week they went to Childers in the rain to help the running game since he is more athletic.  That is a sign of a good head coach that is not worried about hurting his player’s feelings by putting his guys in the best spot to win.  Northern Illinois who is very much a run first team will go up against Buffalo who is ranked #118 in yards allowed on the ground and #86 in yards per carry.  Western Michigan just wore them out last week allowing 376 yards on the ground.  Northern Illinois should move the ball just fine here.  After all this is a team that has played some tough defenses already and they had 429 yards on the road at San Diego State a top 30 defense in the country.

Buffalo offensively looks like a beast after last weeks 68 points, but they scored just 31 in regulation and did not score in the 2nd and 3rd quarter.  Very inconsistent and Western Michigan is not very good on defense so far this year ranking #99.  Buffalo has only played 1 team in the top 88 in yards per play allowed and they put up 7 points in that game against Minnesota ranked #27.  Northern Illinois comes into this game ranked #3, and they are just as strong vs. the pass allowing 51% completions, 4.9 yards per attempt, they are top 10 in opposing QB rating, and 20th in sack rate.  They have allowed just 4 TD’s and 9 interceptions and have been great in the red zone.  Buffalo’s Drew Anderson just went against #90, and #93 passing defenses this and he struggled vs. #93.  He came alive against a tired Western Michigan defense, but I don’t expect much for a backup QB against a top ranked defense that has dominated this series going 9-0 beating Buffalo by an average of 29 points.

Vanderbilt +3.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Vanderbilt just had a brutal stretch of games facing Alabama, Florida and Georgia and they were outrushed in those games 1,137 to 150.  We know Vanderbilt is not as good on defense this year, but they have been better offensively.  Getting beat up in the trenches the last three weeks they have actually stayed healthy.  Now they face a team in Ole Miss who is averaging 2.88 yards per carry and has just 380 yards on the season eclipsing 100 just one time with 102 in game 1.  Ole Miss defense has been awful against the run allowing 5.57 yards per carry and 160+ in each game including their game against FCS foe Tenn-Martin.

Vanderbilt is desperate for a win here if they want to go bowling.  Ole Miss really has nothing to play for with their self-bowl ban.  They actually just played Alabama and Auburn, two top 10 teams, and now they face Vanderbilt at 3:30.  Not that exciting if you ask me, but this is a game Vanderbilt won last year 38-17 at home as a 10 point dog.  In that game they ran for 208 yards and 3 TD’s and I expect them to finally get back to running the football here after facing three top 25 run defenses and Florida on the road they’ll get to face Ole Miss ranking #122.  With a working running game Kyle Schurmur who has been very good this year with 12 TD’s 1 INT should be even better as Vanderbilt cruises in this game. 

Ole Miss does have a flashy QB in Shea Patterson, but he’s thrown 6 interceptions in 5 games and Vanderbilt’s defense is far better vs. the pass than the run which is Ole Miss strength.  Vanderbilt’s pass defense has only allowed 5 TD’s and 5 INT’s, and they are top 40 in nearly every passing defense stat.  I just think this is a better matchup for Vanderbilt who comes into this game healthier than they probably thought they would be after a stretch of 3 brutal games.  Now they face a team that if they come out strong should give up and allow Vanderbilt to cruise to an easy victory. 

Rutgers +120 2.5% play

Rutgers off a bye here in a match-up of the two worst teams in the Big Ten.  Honestly I have seen much more from Rutgers this year despite their poor management of time in the Eastern Michigan game they were actually in the game against Washington and have played a far tougher schedule facing two possible college football playoff teams in Ohio State and Washington.  The key for Rutgers is Janarion Grant who is an explosive playmaker and has basically missed the last three games.  He’s been upgraded to probable and should be a difference maker no matter who Chris Ash goes with at QB.

Rutgers defense despite what the last game told you is playing well.  They held Nebraska to 306 yards on the road.  Illinois at home gave up 411 yards while their offense did not eclipse 200 yards. 

QB play is going to be the determining factor here and I’ll lean towards Rutgers with Grant back in the mix.  I also think Rutgers has the better pass defense.  Take the Ohio State game out and they have only allowed 5 TD’s with 5 INT’s.  Illinois just moved to Jeff George again at QB, and he threw 3 INT’s.  In his career at Illinois he now has 5TD’s and 6 INT’s.  I hope they start him this week that should point to Rutgers winning the turnover battle.

I actually think Rutgers should be able to move the ball a bit threw the air here as Illinois has been spotty in run defense which should allow Rutgers to have their most balance all year.  When you look at it Rutgers has faced pass defenses ranked 22nd, 55th, 21st, and 11th and now they’ll face Illinois ranked 92nd and they’ll be getting their best playmaker back and are off a bye.  Meanwhile Illinois coming off a physical game against Iowa.

West Virginia -3 -120 (-3.5 -105 everywhere) 4% play

It’s not often you see an unranked team favored against a ranked team, but here we are.  These two teams have a lot in common, but West Virginia has had the tougher schedule.  Their two toughest games have been on the road and they lost both games by only 7 points having out played both opponents.  Last week against TCU they held a +12 first down edge, and were +102 yards, but turned the ball over 2x and this was on the road.  This was the same TCU team that went on the road and defeated Oklahoma State.  Texas Tech faced Oklahoma State at home and they too only lost by 7 points, but they should have lost by 3 TD’s as they were outgained by 213 yards and allowed Oklahoma State’s offense in their territory in 10 of 12 drives.  West Virginia has a very balanced offense as they are top 25 in running and passing and should have the same success.

West Virginia’s offense went on the road to start the season and out played a good Virginia Tech team as they were +123 yards in the 7 point loss.  They put up records on a Bud Foster defense.  Now they finally get a home game against a good opponent and I think they can win this game by double digits.  Statistically speaking these two are about the same and Texas Tech may even have the edges in several categories, but since West Virginia has played the tougher schedule and their two toughest games have been on the road I expect the defense which appears to be the weakness to have their best game against Texas Tech who is playing their 3rd road game in 4 weeks.

Texas Tech has also been extremely fortunate this year at +9 TO margin.  West Virginia takes care of the ball as well and they have been better in the red zone with a +21% advantage as far as TD% goes.  We mentioned Texas Tech’s struggles allowing opponents to drive into their territory.  While Texas Tech is -1%.  Slight edge to West Virginia in the return game in special teams while neither team’s kicker is very good that gives an edge to West Virginia who is at home and has the better red zone defense.  I also love the fact that West Virginia is penalized less.  The only thing not making this a bigger play is the fact that West Virginia is off a tough loss and haven’t been able to win their close games.  However, I think this won’t be close and expect a big win by the Mountaineers.  This is a long way for Tech to travel.

California +15 3.3% Play

It’s hard to come back and fade Washington State a third week in a row especially after I had Oregon as a POD against them, but I feel like I learned a lot watching that game.  Now, Washington State is on their second road game in a row and they have now cracked the top 10.  They will face another solid defense that is under rated.  Oregon was very good on defense a week ago, but their offense just left them on the field too long.

When I look at this match-up the key is going to be whether or not Cal can avoid Washington State getting off to a fast start.  The two games Cal really were taken out of the game and not involved in a close game was against Washington and Oregon, two programs that start fast.  When you look at Cal and the second half adjustments they make on defense you have to be impressed.  Cal, held UNC to 13 points in the second half week 1, Ole Miss to 0 points, USC to 17 points (all in the 4th quarter), and then they held Washington to 14 points a week ago in the 2nd half.  When you look at Washington State they are not the same offense as a year ago ranking 55th 5.6 yards per play.  They get off to slow starts in most of their games.  It was 13-10 last week at Oregon, and they trailed 10-7 after the first quarter.  It was 17-17 vs. USC, but they trailed 7-3 after the first quarter.  Vs. Boise it was 10-10 at the half and they actually trailed in the 4th quarter 31-10.  Against Oregon State they were only up 7-2 after the first quarter. 

This is important so Cal’s offense doesn’t just abandon the running game like they did a week ago against Washington.  Their offensive line is not the best and they struggled in that game on the road in a tough environment.  I don’t see that happening here back at home where they will have their fans behind them.  Remember Washington State last year averaged nearly a yard less on the road per play than at home.  The sample size is not that large this year, but that offense certainly struggled last week against Oregon and I could see them having issues again this week against a Cal defense that just doesn’t give up even late in games when they are losing big.  Cal’s defense has improved so far by more than 1.5 yards per play at this point in the season compared to last year and they are ranked 38th allowing 5.1 yards per play.  That’s impressive given how they have struggled on offense and their defense has spent a lot of time on the field.  This Cal defense held the best PAC12 teams in the conference well under their season averages.  They held Washington 40 yards below their season average and 1.6 yards per play below their season average.  They held USC 1.63 yards below their season average and 111.8 total yards below their season average.  They were in a dog fight against USC, but happened to turn the ball over 6 times.  They also caught USC the week before Washington State did and it was a much healthier USC team at the time.

Let’s look at Cal vs. USC at home as they were +70 yards, they got into USC territory 6 out of 14 times, and they allowed USC to get into their territory 8 out of 14 times mostly due to the 6 turnovers they had.  Washington State who was playing their 5th home game in a row got USC in their second road game in a row, but also traveling on short rest since it was a Friday game.  A major advantage.  IN that game we saw similar advantages although Washington State was +150 yards, and held USC to 5-14 and were +1 in TO margin.  It was a much more banged up USC squad.  At the end of the day this is a buy low sell high situation.  I like the way California has played most of the year, but they are coming off rough back to back performances that make you think they are due to be blown out here again.  Washington State comes in high off two huge wins and are now ranked #10, but I remind you they faced two teams that just had too many injuries to overcome.  I underestimated Oregon’s loss at QB as some experts say it was worth north of a TD after watching that game I tend to agree.  Cal’s defense will play well just like Oregon did, but they’ll put together some scoring drives and this game will be closer throughout and I wouldn’t be shocked if Cal got a chance to win it in the end.California +15 3.3% Play

It’s hard to come back and fade Washington State a third week in a row especially after I had Oregon as a POD against them, but I feel like I learned a lot watching that game.  Now, Washington State is on their second road game in a row and they have now cracked the top 10.  They will face another solid defense that is under rated.  Oregon was very good on defense a week ago, but their offense just left them on the field too long.

When I look at this match-up the key is going to be whether or not Cal can avoid Washington State getting off to a fast start.  The two games Cal really were taken out of the game and not involved in a close game was against Washington and Oregon, two programs that start fast.  When you look at Cal and the second half adjustments they make on defense you have to be impressed.  Cal, held UNC to 13 points in the second half week 1, Ole Miss to 0 points, USC to 17 points (all in the 4th quarter), and then they held Washington to 14 points a week ago in the 2nd half.  When you look at Washington State they are not the same offense as a year ago ranking 55th 5.6 yards per play.  They get off to slow starts in most of their games.  It was 13-10 last week at Oregon, and they trailed 10-7 after the first quarter.  It was 17-17 vs. USC, but they trailed 7-3 after the first quarter.  Vs. Boise it was 10-10 at the half and they actually trailed in the 4th quarter 31-10.  Against Oregon State they were only up 7-2 after the first quarter. 

This is important so Cal’s offense doesn’t just abandon the running game like they did a week ago against Washington.  Their offensive line is not the best and they struggled in that game on the road in a tough environment.  I don’t see that happening here back at home where they will have their fans behind them.  Remember Washington State last year averaged nearly a yard less on the road per play than at home.  The sample size is not that large this year, but that offense certainly struggled last week against Oregon and I could see them having issues again this week against a Cal defense that just doesn’t give up even late in games when they are losing big.  Cal’s defense has improved so far by more than 1.5 yards per play at this point in the season compared to last year and they are ranked 38th allowing 5.1 yards per play.  That’s impressive given how they have struggled on offense and their defense has spent a lot of time on the field.  This Cal defense held the best PAC12 teams in the conference well under their season averages.  They held Washington 40 yards below their season average and 1.6 yards per play below their season average.  They held USC 1.63 yards below their season average and 111.8 total yards below their season average.  They were in a dog fight against USC, but happened to turn the ball over 6 times.  They also caught USC the week before Washington State did and it was a much healthier USC team at the time.

Let’s look at Cal vs. USC at home as they were +70 yards, they got into USC territory 6 out of 14 times, and they allowed USC to get into their territory 8 out of 14 times mostly due to the 6 turnovers they had.  Washington State who was playing their 5th home game in a row got USC in their second road game in a row, but also traveling on short rest since it was a Friday game.  A major advantage.  IN that game we saw similar advantages although Washington State was +150 yards, and held USC to 5-14 and were +1 in TO margin.  It was a much more banged up USC squad.  At the end of the day this is a buy low sell high situation.  I like the way California has played most of the year, but they are coming off rough back to back performances that make you think they are due to be blown out here again.  Washington State comes in high off two huge wins and are now ranked #10, but I remind you they faced two teams that just had too many injuries to overcome.  I underestimated Oregon’s loss at QB as some experts say it was worth north of a TD after watching that game I tend to agree.  Cal’s defense will play well just like Oregon did, but they’ll put together some scoring drives and this game will be closer throughout and I wouldn’t be shocked if Cal got a chance to win it in the end.

Wisconsin / Nebraska Under 46 3.3% play 8pm ET

I feel like Nebraska is finally figuring out what they need to do this year.  Runt eh ball with 47 and 38 carries in their last two games they have been successful.  For me I see this game slowing down no matter what the result of the game and I feel strongly there are two results.  Wisconsin gets up big and milks the clock, or Nebraska plays excellent defense and plays in a very close game.

Neither team can expect big plays down the field as Nebraska and Wisconsin both rank top 20 in yards per completion.  Both defenses have also been very good in the red zone.  Nebraska holding opponents to 52.94% TD, and Wisconsin is holding opponents to 41.67%.  Both teams are also in top 20 in opponent plays per game with Nebraska coming in at 66 and Wisconsin at 65.8. 

Wisconsin’s offense will lean on the run and their size up front as they like to run the ball 65% of the time which keeps the clock moving.  Meanwhile Nebraska’s run defense has been superb outside of the Oregon game which was on the road.  Oregon is the only team to run for more than 100 yards.  This will be a night game and should give the Nebraska defense an extra edge early.  Overall this is the best defense that Wisconsin has faced all year and vice versa.  Expect a very low scoring game like we have seen the past two years.  Let’s just hope Tanner Lee doesn’t start throwing pick sixes again.

Oregon +120 5.5% POD @ 8PM ET

I’ll take the Ducks here.  For some reason I can’t get Washington State’s game at home against Boise State out of my mind and how it took a miracle for them to come back in that game.  I understand Luke Falk went down early in that game, but Boise also lost their starter in that game.  Washington State trailed 31-10 with then minutes to go in that game before taking the game in OT.  Let me remind you that Boise State got blown out at home against Virginia 2 weeks ago.  We were on that game.  Why is a #11 ranked team only a short favorite on the road against a team that just lost their QB?

This is Washington’s first road game of the season after pulling off a major upset over USC who really has not played up to expectations this year and went into Washington with a ton of injuries.  This is a major hang over spot here and I like what I have seen from Oregon.  Oregon will be without their starting QB, but I like their ability to run the ball and now they are adding in a mobile QB in Alie or the freshman Braxton Burmeister.  I’m sure both will see time.  Boise State’s QB Cozart rushed for 72 yards in that game at Washington State and I expect a big game on the ground for Oregon in order ot take advantage of Washington’s State’s size on the defense.  It doesn’t hurt that they’ll get Royce Freeman back for this game either.

The other reason I like Oregon here is because of the defense.  One of the worst defenses last year and they have dramatically improved under Jim Leavitt, which is no shock.  Leavitt has this team playing great ranking 12th in sack % as they have 20 on the year a big key to stopping this Washington State offense which is more one dimensional this year.  Washington State really hasn’t been able to run the ball and if you bring a one dimensional attack up against a very good defensive coordinator like Leavitt you will not have a great game.  Leavitt, the DC at Colorado the last few years turned that defense around and is doing it quicker here at Oregon.  Colorado held Falk to less than a 50% completion percentage last year and picked him off.  Oregon State also allowing just 25% on third down, and the run defense is allowing just 2.62 ypc so there are no glaring weaknesses like in years past.

Michigan -10 2.2% play @7:30PM ET

I think this is an upgrade at QB for Michigan with John O’Korn.  With O’Korn they had 3 trips to the red zone 3 TD’s vs. a good Purdue team.  With Wilton Speights they had 10 trips to the red zone and just 1 TD.  O’Korn also offers a bit more mobility and accuracy as he’s completed 70% of his passes.

Michigan State off two very physical games in Notre Dame & Iowa coming into this game facing Michigan who is off a bye.  Michigan State has covered the last 10 in the series and were 25 point dogs at home last season which says they should be a 30 point favorite at home, but they come in as a 10 point favorite.  There is just too much value here with Michigan in my opinion.  Michigan State is a very one dimensional offense right now it’s QB Brian Lewerke or nothing.  He’s looked good at home, but in the last two games against Notre Dame and Iowa ranking 33rd, and 47th in yards per play defense this offense scored just 35 total points.  Now they head onto the road to face the #1 defense in the nation from a yards per play perspective and I think they struggle to score.

Kansas State / Texas Under 49.5 2.2% play 7pm ET

This is a bad match-up for Kansas State who relies heavily on their running game to score points.  Texas has been dominant vs. the run since their opening game against Maryland and rank 26th, but have held opponents to 1.6 ypc over their last 3 games.  Kansas State last year when held under 150 yards rushing averaged just 15.3 points per game.  Texas with a couple extra days to prepare for this one is definitely capable of shutting this offense down considering Vanderbilt held them to 7 points.

Texas offense is a bit banged up on the offensive line and has really struggled this year finding an identity.  They’ll face one of the better defenses they have faced all season long in Kansas State.  Kansas State also a dog here is 30-13 ATS during the regular season since Bill Snyder came back and the defense is usually playing their best in this role.

What I like most about the under here is the fact that both defenses are playing exceptional in the red zone allowing under 50% TD’s.  Kanas State is also 105th in plays per game while they are 6th in allowing just 61 per game.  While Texas offensively will try to speed it up at time they also like holding their opponents in check allowing just 67 plays per game good for 26th.  The last 4 in this matchup have gone under and I see this one going under as well. 

LSU +2.5 3.3 % Play @ 3:30pm ET

LSU is coming off a puzzling loss to Troy at home last week, but in fairness they were without 4 starters in that game.  Also worth noting is that Troy has 16 starters back from last year’s team.  This is the same Troy team that went on the road and nearly defeated last year’s National Champion, Clemson.  They lost that game 30-24, and they did that despite turning the ball over 3 times.  I think that only helped this team going into LSU this year and LSU probably peaking ahead to this Florida game.

Ed Orgeron is clearly capable of rallying the troops and motivating young athletes.  The offense get’s their biggest weapon back in Derius Guice for this game which could create issues for Florida’s defense that has not been that great ranking 63rd in yards per play.  This defense is not as good as in years past, and I think OC Matt Canada will be able to come up with a game plan to put this team in a position to win.  So please run the ball Canada! 

Florida on the other hand has looked good offensively, but now they lose their top WR in Tyrie Cleveland who caught a 98 yard TD in last year’s 16-10 win.  This offense was already one dimensional and will become very easy to script a game plan against.  You might say trick plays would be in order for Florida, but their offensive line cannot hold up ranking 106th at protecting the QB while LSU is dangerous at getting to the QB and will only continue to get better as Arden Key gets back into shape.  Florida’s offense this year has not done much if they are not connecting on big plays and without Cleveland they will have issues.  They have gotten into the red zone just 9 times.

In last year’s match up Florida was extremely fortunate to win and I think LSU wants to repay them this year.  LSU out gained Florida by 152 yards, but had 2 TO’s.  They scored just 10 points despite 5 trips into the red zone.  This year they are converting 65% of their red zone trips into TD’s.  Florida is extremely fortunate to have the record they have right now, and LSU is just hungry for a win over an SEC opponent and I think they’ll get it here.  

Minnesota +4 2.2% play – 3:30pm ET

I believe we get great line value here with the Gophers following their loss as a double digit favorite last week at home to Maryland who just out played them in the trenches running the ball and stopping the run.  I’m not so sure that will happen against them here again this week.  The Gophers do have an advantage in the trenches.  I think Minnesota can methodically hold onto the ball and control the clock in this one.  Purdue has stopped the run, but they have not created enough negative plays to force Minnesota into third and longs.  Minnesota defensively is strong up front and can push Purdue into a one dimensional offensive attack.  Purdue already throwing the ball more because they have had issues running the ball and they could be without their leading rusher for this game.

Purdue’s QB David Blough clearly not 100% dating back to the summer with shoulder injuries.  He says he’s feeling good and he’ll get the start, but at some point he’s going to struggle.  I see Brohm throwing a lot here considering Minnesota has all of a sudden come down with injuries on defense especially in the secondary where they will be tested.  However, this team was thin in their bowl game against Washington State as huge under dogs and the secondary played great limiting Washington State and pulling the upset.

Minnesota’s defense should still play well here and if they can get the early lead like I believe they can considering Purdue is without 2 starters for the first half in this game (targeting) then Purdue will be forced to pass in obvious situations.  That’s never a good thing for David Blough who is very much prone to turning the ball over which could be the difference in this game.  I also like the advantage we have with Minnesota’s kicker going 4-5 form 40-49 yards out while Purdue is using 2 kickers for a reason and have yet to connect on a FG longer than 38 yards.  We get some good line value in this one because of Minnesota loss and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them bounce back with a victory here.

Western Michigan -0.5 / Navy -1.5 4.4% Teaser of the Week

Western Michigan’s line has moved nearly 4 points and a clear teaser candidate.  I can see Western Michigan easily winning this game.  They were able to get healthy by resting players vs. Wagner and last week they just dominated a Ball State team looking like the 2016 Broncos.  Buffalo on the other hand will come into this game without their 6 foot 7 QB, Tyree Jackson who was the second leading rusher on this team and a hard guy to stop in the red zone.  Drew Anderson has been good at QB in replace, but he faced two very bad defenses in Florida Atlantic and Kent State.

Buffalo’s has been very good vs. the pass this year, but their weakness is Western Michigan’s strength.  Buffalo ranks 83rd in yards per carry allowed and they have not faced great rushing teams with opponents ranking 81st, 21st, 50th, and 120th.  Western Michigan comes into this game as healthy as they have been since week 1 or 2 where they ran for over 250 yards on each of their power 5 opponents and they did this on the road against USC and Michigan State.  Western Michigan should control this game and they have no look ahead spots with Akron on deck.

Buffalo was actually in a game against Kent State last week where they were outgained by 67 yards despite their 14 point victory.  Kent State could be one of the worst teams in the conference and Buffalo allowed 13 points and over 400 yards of offense.  Kent State has 3 points or less in 3 of their 5 games!

Another aspect of the game that is sometimes missed is special teams.  Western Michigan clearly has an advantage in the return game here.  Darius Phillips is a serious weapon with 2 returns for TD’s already on the year.  If Buffalo decides to kick away from him they could make a mistake or two.  Either way I expect Western Michigan to win the field position.  I also like their HC Tim Lester who was a former coach of the year in two different football divisions.  He has plenty of head coaching experience which is what I like to see when backing a team with a first year coach.

Navy -1.5  This is another line that has come down from 12 all the way to 7.5.  We are getting a good number here and bringing it below the key number of 3.  The last 4 match ups in this series have alternating wins by 9 points or more.  With Navy losing last year by 14 we are expecting revenge.  Navy actually also lost to Army last year so this is a key game for them to bring back the Commander-in-Chief trophy.

Navy has averaged 6.15 ypc has 1600 yards 16TD’s compared to Air Force who is averaging 4.60 and 1,099 yards with 12 TD’s.  Edge goes to Navy here in the running game.  Defensively Navy has played better as well allowing only 3.92 ypc and 518 yards.  They held Tulane, an option offense to 191 yards and 4.15 ypc.  Air Force comes in allowing 5.23 ypc and against the only option team they faced (New Mexico) they got shredded for 8.85 yards per carry.  Navy also better on third down offense which is a huge advantage for a triple option team in these type of match-ups.

Also worth noting is that Air Force’s defense was much better a year ago.  They are allowing nearly 2 yards per carry more than a season ago.  These two teams also have similar opponent Tulane & New Mexico that Navy faired better against.  Also Navy who just played Tulsa who had played New Mexico who just played Air Force sort of gives us an idea about this match up.  Navy was +1 yards per play vs. Tulsa last week and out scored them 31-0 after the fast 14-0 start by Tulsa.  Truly impressive game against that Tulsa offense.  New Mexico also +1 yards per play against Tulsa the week before while against Air Force they held 6+ yards per play advantage.

Navy wants revenge here and have had this game circled.  Air Force the road team here having played a physical Michigan team, a San Diego State team in a 90 minute delay then New Mexico last week, another game that got delayed, which is like playing an OT game.  Navy cruises here by double digits. 

Western Michigan -0.5 / Navy -1.5 4.4% Teaser of the Week

Western Michigan’s line has moved nearly 4 points and a clear teaser candidate.  I can see Western Michigan easily winning this game.  They were able to get healthy by resting players vs. Wagner and last week they just dominated a Ball State team looking like the 2016 Broncos.  Buffalo on the other hand will come into this game without their 6 foot 7 QB, Tyree Jackson who was the second leading rusher on this team and a hard guy to stop in the red zone.  Drew Anderson has been good at QB in replace, but he faced two very bad defenses in Florida Atlantic and Kent State.

Buffalo’s has been very good vs. the pass this year, but their weakness is Western Michigan’s strength.  Buffalo ranks 83rd in yards per carry allowed and they have not faced great rushing teams with opponents ranking 81st, 21st, 50th, and 120th.  Western Michigan comes into this game as healthy as they have been since week 1 or 2 where they ran for over 250 yards on each of their power 5 opponents and they did this on the road against USC and Michigan State.  Western Michigan should control this game and they have no look ahead spots with Akron on deck.

Buffalo was actually in a game against Kent State last week where they were outgained by 67 yards despite their 14 point victory.  Kent State could be one of the worst teams in the conference and Buffalo allowed 13 points and over 400 yards of offense.  Kent State has 3 points or less in 3 of their 5 games!

Another aspect of the game that is sometimes missed is special teams.  Western Michigan clearly has an advantage in the return game here.  Darius Phillips is a serious weapon with 2 returns for TD’s already on the year.  If Buffalo decides to kick away from him they could make a mistake or two.  Either way I expect Western Michigan to win the field position.  I also like their HC Tim Lester who was a former coach of the year in two different football divisions.  He has plenty of head coaching experience which is what I like to see when backing a team with a first year coach.

Navy -1.5  This is another line that has come down from 12 all the way to 7.5.  We are getting a good number here and bringing it below the key number of 3.  The last 4 match ups in this series have alternating wins by 9 points or more.  With Navy losing last year by 14 we are expecting revenge.  Navy actually also lost to Army last year so this is a key game for them to bring back the Commander-in-Chief trophy.

Navy has averaged 6.15 ypc has 1600 yards 16TD’s compared to Air Force who is averaging 4.60 and 1,099 yards with 12 TD’s.  Edge goes to Navy here in the running game.  Defensively Navy has played better as well allowing only 3.92 ypc and 518 yards.  They held Tulane, an option offense to 191 yards and 4.15 ypc.  Air Force comes in allowing 5.23 ypc and against the only option team they faced (New Mexico) they got shredded for 8.85 yards per carry.  Navy also better on third down offense which is a huge advantage for a triple option team in these type of match-ups.

Also worth noting is that Air Force’s defense was much better a year ago.  They are allowing nearly 2 yards per carry more than a season ago.  These two teams also have similar opponent Tulane & New Mexico that Navy faired better against.  Also Navy who just played Tulsa who had played New Mexico who just played Air Force sort of gives us an idea about this match up.  Navy was +1 yards per play vs. Tulsa last week and out scored them 31-0 after the fast 14-0 start by Tulsa.  Truly impressive game against that Tulsa offense.  New Mexico also +1 yards per play against Tulsa the week before while against Air Force they held 6+ yards per play advantage.

Navy wants revenge here and have had this game circled.  Air Force the road team here having played a physical Michigan team, a San Diego State team in a 90 minute delay then New Mexico last week, another game that got delayed, which is like playing an OT game.  Navy cruises here by double digits. 

Northern Illinois / Kent State Under 49 2.2% play @3:30PM et

Expected 22mph winds in this game and 90% chance of rain means not good things for Kent State.  Expecting the under in this game with Kent State’s inability to score facing a top notch defense like Northern Illinois off a very misleading game that saw them allow 34 points to San Diego State despite holding them to 263 yards.

Northern Illinois should have defeated San Diego State last week and I was leaning towards Northern Illinois until I got the weather report here.  I expect Northern Illinois may be a little hung over here after not being able to pull the upset on the road, but Kent State really doesn’t offer a challenge. 

Kent State just 22% in the red zone for TD percentage facing off against Northern Illinois tough defense is not a recipe for success.  I am really expecting Northern Illinois to either shut Kent State out or hold them to 3-6 points.  Not that farfetched when you consider Kent State has scored 3 or less points in 3 of their 5 games so far.

Northern Illinois should be able to control this game and the clock.  If the weather is bad like it looks I expect a lot of running in this game for Northern Illinois.  Kent State should expect it and should be able to make some stops because of that, but they are ranked 127th vs. the run, 95th vs. the pass some of that is due to having faced Clemson & Louisville.  

Texas State + 220 2% Dog of the Week

This is the type of game I like.  Now not many of you will get excited about this game since it won’t be on TV, but there is line value in this spot.  Louisiana Monroe has no business being a road favorite of a TD.  They were outgained last week at home to Coastal Carolina and got a miracle cover.  A gambler’s nightmare and to be honest I’m surprised we weren’t victim of it.  Joking aside, this is what happened as Coastal Carolina trailed 45-43 in the final seconds from their own 33-yard line.  CC tried several laterals to score a game winning touchdown, but it resulted in a fumble.  Monroe picked it up and scored a TD giving them an 8 point win and a 0.5 point cover.  Very misleading when you factor in that Monroe was +3 TO margin in this game, but needed a miracle to cover at home.  They put up only 344 yards and were outgained by 97.

Now, Texas State went on the road and got clobbered by Wyoming 45-10.  Thus, giving us this inflated number.  A closer look and Wyoming with their future NFL QB Josh Allen (maybe not anymore?) only put up 333 total yards at home.  This Texas State defense is playing well.  Wyoming benefited from a 31 yard interception for a TD, a 95 kickoff return for a TD, and an 18 yard fumble recovery for a TD. 

This was a 34-40 game a year ago in Louisiana and I expect Texas State to have a shot at winning this game.

BYU + 8 3.3% PLAY

This could be a situation where we come back on Boise -6.5 in live betting and hope for a middle.  Tanner Mangum took snaps this week and is a game time decision.  If he plays we are getting tremendous value here.  This is not the Boise State of previous years and BYU as bad as they have been they actually started to show progress last week offensively against Utah State particularly in the run game.  The problem was they turned the ball over 7 times which led to I believe 34 points or something just absolutely absurd.

Even if Mangum can't go we won't see Koy Detmer who seemed to be throwing the ball with his eyes closed a week ago.  I feel confident knowing that Detmer won't play and that this running game should have success. When you factor in that they faced LSU, Utah, and Wisconsin's run defenses it's no wonder they struggled especially without the threat of a pass.  Against Utah State they rushed for 210 yards, but kept fumbling the ball.  The question is can they run it again this week against Boise?

Boise State's defense is allowing 29 points per game this year and it's clear that Bryan Harsin is possibly ruining this program.  The defense has gotten worse each of the last two years and looks to be even worse this year.  Boise State allowed 198 and 167 yards in the last two games rushing and they have had their own issues running the ball at just 3.25 yards per carry.  Boise State's offense is having issues as well as their once highly touted QB Brett Rypien has yet to throw a TD and is splitting time with a Kansas transfer. 

BYU's veteran leaders on the defense tried to take over the game last week and they did an admirable job considering the offense put them in terrible position.  I think they will have another great game here in what should be a tight game.  Senior LB Fred Warner will lead the team as they continue to be a very good defense allowing just 44% TD's in the red zone.  Allowing just 3.81 ypc. Last year on the road BYU held Boise to 129 yards rushing and that version of Boise's offense was much better with the likes of RB Jeremy McNichols.  This year they are getting most of their rushing yards from the QB Cozart.  The year before BYU held Boise to just 64 yards in their home game against Boise.  

In order for Boise to win this game big like they need to. They'll have to run the ball extremely well to beat this inflated line against a desperate BYU team.  I don't see it happening. 

NC STATE +3.5 3.3% PLAY

I'm not one for a revenge role, but I think it definitely sticks here.  NC State Sr. DE Chubb, "Yeah we definitely remember it."  Chubb was referring to Louisville's beat down of NC State a year ago.  Junior RB Hines says, "We really didn't show the world what NC State is capable of."  This is a very big game and it's at home as the lone Thursday night college football game.  Louisville went up big last year 44-0, but it's worth noting that NC State's head coach Dave Doeren even admitted that his team wasn't over what had happened the previous week at Clemson.  The previous week at Clemson their kicker missed a 33 yard field goal that would have won the game and honestly Clemson might have been in a different spot at the end of the year.  It's hard to play back to back road games in the ACC.  It's even harder when you are coming off an OT Loss, and even harder when you almost upset the defending ACC Champions on the road.  Louisville got started so fast last year and you could just tell NC State was not into it.

I think this year will be different and there are several reasons why.  For one Louisville is not as explosive offensively.  Louisville's offensive line is not as good this year and they don't match up well against NC State's talented front which is 10th in the nation in run defense.  NC State actually held Louisville's rushing attack in check a year ago as they averaged just 3.7 ypc.  However, Louisville is actually throwing more this year which is just an indication that they are in tighter games.  In fact, since this match-up a year ago Louisville is just 6-4 vs. FBS opponents.  Louisville is in trouble I think as they should be without their top WR Jaylen Smith (wrist) once again which turns things over to two young players in Fitzpatrick a sophomore and Dawkins a freshman.

NC State is more balanced offensively and their QB is limiting turnovers which will be a key going into this game.  Ryan Finley turned it over 3 times in this game last year and he has yet to throw an interception this year.  Purdue and North Carolina had 7 passing TD's against this Louisville secondary and I think Finley is a bit better completing 71.9% of his passes 1403 yards 9 TD's and 0 INT's.  He was impressive on the road against FSU completing 23-33, 2TD's, 0 INT's which showed great improvement from his game against them last year.  Louisville is ranking 91st in opponent QB rating and although they get their best defender in the secondary back I think they will have issues keeping NC State out of the end zone when it matters.  Louisville has allowed a 72% TD percentage in the red zone on defense while NC state's defense comes in at 38% TD's allowed.  This will be the difference in the game in my opinion as they'd rather score TD's than allow their kicker to kick.  This along with NC State's ability to win the turnover margin as they are +6 on the season compared to Louisville's -2.

Northern Illinois +10.5 5.5% POD

This is a difficult situation for San Diego State here coming off three big wins by 10 points or less.  This is a definitely sell high situation here.  Also San Diego State has to be a bit tired after these three games they played Stanford, followed by Air Force’s cut blocking and a 90 minute weather delay.  Meanwhile, Northern Illinois comes into this game fresh and healthy off a bye.

These two met a year ago with San Diego State winning 42-28 on the road, but it was far closer than he final indicated and I feel like Northern Illinois can hang with San Diego State here.  Northern Illinois is allowing just 2.24 ypc and their pass defense has 6 interceptions allowing just 2 passing TD’s and they haven’t allowed any big plays.  San Diego State’s head coach Rocky Long said it last week.  They need a passing game to set up a running game.  Early in the game against Air Force they could not pass because of the weather and San Diego State trailed 9-0.  After the 90 minute delay they opened up with play action and were able to score points in their 28-24 win.  Against Northern Illinois I don’t believe they will have that opportunity.  As crazy as it is to say.  Northern Illinois is the best defense they have faced all year ranking 9th in yards per play allowed.  San Diego State has faced off against 85, 95, and 100th ranked defenses.

The other thing to note here are both teams play extremely slow and lean on the run first.  Which typically means the clock will move and there will be a limited number of plays.  10 points mean much more in those type of games.  Northern Illinois out of the MAC has been competitive in all their games this year.  The MAC has gone 12-13 since 2010 vs. the Mountain West so this should set up to be a good game.  Northern Illinois is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 as a road dog.   

Boston College -1 4.4% Teaser

Boston College is in a must win situation looking at their upcoming schedule and I think this is a great matchup for them.  Before we get into that let’s take a look at BC’s last three games.  There was a misleading loss vs. Wake Forest that looks much worse than it was.  Against Notre Dame it was a 13-14 game in the 3rd quarter before Notre Dame’s depth took over.  Last week against Clemson it was 7-7 in the 4th quarter before Clemson’s depth took and scored 27 in the 4th quarter.  They won’t have the depth as an issue against Central Michigan here.

We faded Central Michigan last week in our play of the day with Miami Ohio and it was an easy winner.  I’ll fade them again here as Central Michigan just does not match up well in this one.  The Chippewas want to pass the ball and that is where BC’s strength is as they rank 13th vs. the pas sin QB rating.  BC’s weakness has really been defending the run, but CMU’s rushing offense ranks 107th in yards per carry. 

Boston College is at its best on offense when it can run the ball.  They have been able to run the ball considerably well when you consider they have faced run defenses ranked 3rd, 6th, 13th, and 56th.  Now they get to face the 105th ranked run defense and should be able to control this game.  I think their defense forces some turnovers and if this lines moves under 7 I’ll be a buyer on the spread as well at 6.5.

Clemson -1.5

Clemson did not look great against Boston College a week ago and Virginia Tech has looked outstanding, but against who?  The last two weeks they played Old Dominion and East Carolina and Freshman QB Josh Jackson has looked great, but he’s about to be in for a treat against this Clemson front.  I expect Clemson to simply dominate the time of possession here as Virginia Tech’s offense will struggle big time. 

Virginia Tech is known for their defense under Bud Foster, but in their only game against an opponent worth talking about (West Virginia), their defense allowed record yardage for a Bud Foster defense.  They were fortunate to get a win because West Virginia had 592 yards of offense averaged 6.65 yards per play and did it on the ground and through the air with 221 yard rushing (6.31 average), and 371 yards passing.  Clemson should be able to move the ball enough in this one and will cruise to an easy win.  I said it earlier in a podcast I think this Clemson team is better than last year despite losing some key players.  Their offense is only going to continue to get better.  Kelly Bryant is completing 68% of his passes and he’s rushed for 268 with 7 TD’s while Freshman RB Travis Etienne has averaged 12.70 ypc on 23 attempts.

Clemson’s offense has been great in the red zone scoring 88% TD’s on their trips here while defending 42% while Virginia Tech despite their weak competition has just a 59% TD rate in the red zone.  Their defense has been good at 37.5%, but they struggled to contain QB Will Grier who had 52 yards rushing.  I think they will be in big trouble here against Kelly Bryant. 

Air Force / New Mexico Over 50 2.2% Play

The last 4 games in this match up have gone over the total, and we are getting a total that's about 4 points lower than where it's been in recent years.  Air Force has had a couple misleading unders in their last two games.  Against Michigan they were able to hold the Wolverines to 4 field goals in the red zone.  Against San Diego State in a monsoon they had a 9-0 lead until the weather delay and the final was 28-24.  

New Mexico had the ball for 42 minutes last week and kept high flying Tulsa off the field, but Tulsa still averaged 5 yards per carry.  New Mexico always has trouble stopping Air Force's offense and should not dominate time of possession like they did a week ago.  I expect both teams over 300 yards rushing and scoring in the 30's. 

Also worth noting is that Air Force has faced two top 25 defneses thus far and New Mexico is ranked 61st.  New Mexico's offense looks to be getting two QB's back who are probable this week which should open up their playbook.  The over is 25-10 in Air Force's last 35 conference games and 7-3 in New Mexico's.

Florida State -7.5 +100 3.5% play

This is Florida State's game to get back on track.  Florida State’s offense has looked awful so far.  The offensive line has been very bad protecting the QB so far.  Now keep in mind they faced two of the best defenses in the country to start the year.  They also had to deal with the time off and it was evident that they were rusty last week against NC State.  This week they will face Wake Forest who is 125th in getting to the QB with a 1.52% sack rate.  I think James Blackmon could have a big game here.  Blackmon might be a better passer than Francois and he is definitely a better leader.  Blackmon actually gave the pre-game speech before the Alabama game to open the year.  Listen, if Florida State wins out they are still in the college football playoff.

Wake Forest on the other hand has played above and beyond what was expected.  They come into the game 4-0 and 3-1 ATS while Florida State is just 0-2 ATS.  Definitely getting some line value here in this spot.  The last two years the spread was 23.5 and 18 and this Florida State team was supposed to have their best team of the last 3 years coming into the season.  Wake Forest has had some misleading wins let’s go over them.

Wake Forest beat Boston College 34-10 as a pk and won by a margin of 24 ATS.  However, in that game they only had 309 yards of offense and were +4 yards vs. Boston College.  They were lucky enough to be +4 in turnover margin along with a pick six.  BC also has not looked good this season at all.  BC’s defense is ranked 79th allowing 5.7 yards per play, but were able to hold Wake under their season average with just 4.35 ypp.

Last week against Appalachian State they were lucky to hold on with a last minute missed field goal.  We gave this out as a premium play and it was a winner at +6.  Appalachian actually dominated the game +150 total yards in the game, but struggled in the red zone with just 2.86 points per trip inside Wake’s territory.  Worth noting before that game App State was struggling big time on offense and still are ranked 89th with 353.7 yards but were able to manage 494 yards in that game.  This should be a very good sign for Florida State’s offense to have a breakout performance. 

Tulsa +7.5 2.2% play

Tulsa was only a 3 point dog last year at Navy, and this year at home they are a 7.5 point dog?  I know Tulsa lost a ton on offense, but they still have one of the better running games and should be able to run the ball here with their QB President and RB De’angelo Brewer, who is this year’s Kareem Hunt in my opinion.  This line is 8 points away from where it would have been in pre-season.  The reason?  Tulsa just came off an ugly game against New Mexico, but that’s giving us some value here, and it also gave Tulsa’s defense the ability to see the option a little bit and they played pretty well holding New Mexico to just 1 TD in 5 red zone trips.

This was a 40-42 score last year in a game that was decided by the refs at the end of the game.  There is no doubt Tulsa remembers it and may have even been peaking ahead to this game which is their conference opener.  They held Navy on 4th and 1 at the 50 with under 2 minutes to play.  They caused a fumble before the whistle and would have had the ball with 1:42 to play at the 50 yard line.  The referees said the fumble came after whistle which it did not.  Tulsa’s DE Jesse Brubaker got called with an unsportsmanlike penalty which gave Navy the first down.  Brubaker is now a senior and he certainly remembers this game from a year ago.

Tulsa has actually played a far tougher schedule, Oklahoma State & Toledo are legit Top 25 teams, and although Tulsa is not as good as last year neither is Navy in my opinion.  Navy played Cincinnati and gave up well over 400 yards and 6.36 yards per play which was over 2 yards higher than what they were averaging previously.  Navy could also be peaking ahead to next week’s game against Air Force who took back the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy in 2016.  Tulsa still has a very good offensive line and two very good runners.  I think they can stick right with Navy in this game and even pull the upset.  The key will be stopping Navy in the red zone and they have definitely practiced defending the option in pre-season considering they are in game 2 of a 3 game stretch (Tulane next week) of seeing the option.

Boston College -1 4.4% Teaser

Boston College is in a must win situation looking at their upcoming schedule and I think this is a great matchup for them.  Before we get into that let’s take a look at BC’s last three games.  There was a misleading loss vs. Wake Forest that looks much worse than it was.  Against Notre Dame it was a 13-14 game in the 3rd quarter before Notre Dame’s depth took over.  Last week against Clemson it was 7-7 in the 4th quarter before Clemson’s depth took and scored 27 in the 4th quarter.  They won’t have the depth as an issue against Central Michigan here.

We faded Central Michigan last week in our play of the day with Miami Ohio and it was an easy winner.  I’ll fade them again here as Central Michigan just does not match up well in this one.  The Chippewas want to pass the ball and that is where BC’s strength is as they rank 13th vs. the pas sin QB rating.  BC’s weakness has really been defending the run, but CMU’s rushing offense ranks 107th in yards per carry. 

Boston College is at its best on offense when it can run the ball.  They have been able to run the ball considerably well when you consider they have faced run defenses ranked 3rd, 6th, 13th, and 56th.  Now they get to face the 105th ranked run defense and should be able to control this game.  I think their defense forces some turnovers and if this lines moves under 7 I’ll be a buyer on the spread as well at 6.5.

Clemson -1.5

Clemson did not look great against Boston College a week ago and Virginia Tech has looked outstanding, but against who?  The last two weeks they played Old Dominion and East Carolina and Freshman QB Josh Jackson has looked great, but he’s about to be in for a treat against this Clemson front.  I expect Clemson to simply dominate the time of possession here as Virginia Tech’s offense will struggle big time. 

Virginia Tech is known for their defense under Bud Foster, but in their only game against an opponent worth talking about (West Virginia), their defense allowed record yardage for a Bud Foster defense.  They were fortunate to get a win because West Virginia had 592 yards of offense averaged 6.65 yards per play and did it on the ground and through the air with 221 yard rushing (6.31 average), and 371 yards passing.  Clemson should be able to move the ball enough in this one and will cruise to an easy win.  I said it earlier in a podcast I think this Clemson team is better than last year despite losing some key players.  Their offense is only going to continue to get better.  Kelly Bryant is completing 68% of his passes and he’s rushed for 268 with 7 TD’s while Freshman RB Travis Etienne has averaged 12.70 ypc on 23 attempts.

Clemson’s offense has been great in the red zone scoring 88% TD’s on their trips here while defending 42% while Virginia Tech despite their weak competition has just a 59% TD rate in the red zone.  Their defense has been good at 37.5%, but they struggled to contain QB Will Grier who had 52 yards rushing.  I think they will be in big trouble here against Kelly Bryant. 

Northwestern +15 3.3% Play

Both teams are off a bye here and will open up Big Ten play against each other.  Both were considered pre-season favorites to compete against each other in the Big Ten West.  Things haven’t gone as planned for Northwester at least they looked really bad in their road favorite loss at Duke.  However, it looks like everyone has underestimated Duke this year.  Northwestern seemed to rebound the following week to get their confidence back before going on a bye and we have what I feel is an inflated spread.

Pat Fitzgerald has been one of the better coaches as a dog and in conference play.  He doesn’t cover or win when he should, but when he’s a dog and on the road he often wins outright even as a double digit dog.  Northwestern has won outright in 7 of their last 9 games as a road dog.  They nearly won last year at Ohio State as a 28 point dog only losing by 4 points.

The key for Northwestern is limit mistakes and stop the run.  With 8 guys returning on the defense I expect them to keep Wisconsin’s running game intact and force Alex Hornibrook to beat them.  Wisconsin really hasn’t played anyone.  Their defense has faced offenses ranked 100, 129, and 74 (Northwestern is ranked 30th in YPP).  Their offense has faced defenses ranked 108, 102, and 73 (Northwestern is ranked 39th).  Northwestern has at least already faced a tough opponent on the road and have something to look at in their bye week for improvement.  Northwestern the last two years off a bye as a dog won outright!  This game also has a low total, and Northwestern has been excellent in red zone defense.  Their punter is the type that can flip the field averaging nearly 50 yards per punt which should shorten this game quite a bit.  This matchup has been close 

Temple +14 2.2% play

The total is 46 in this game and 14 points to the home dog is very valuable.  Temple on paper doesn’t seem to be very impressive, but I think they bounce back and they have an extra two days to prepare for this game.  I actually think their defense has played better than many are giving credit.  They had 5 turnovers last game and USF averaged the 48 yard line per possession yet they held them to 43 points as they had 3 stops in the red zone as well as a goal line stand against a very good offense.

Temple is also 0-4 ATS so far this season so we have a very inflate line at this point with Houston traveling all the way up to Philadelphia having their own issues with turnovers.  Their starting QB Kyle Allen has 6 TO’s in 3 games and will see split time with the back up Potzma who is more of a mobile QB.  Houston defensively has some holes that Temple can exploit.  They actually have not been very good against the run ranking 86th.  If Temple can find a scheme to run away from Ed Oliver I think they can score some points in this game.  Mostly though I expect a very close game with a lot of field goals and this is just far too many points. 

USC -3.5 4.4% POD

This is a buy low situation with USC if one exists.  Public perception is super low with this team based on how they played against Texas, and Cal the last two weeks.  I think this USC team is a team that will play up with the competition it faces.  We saw it in their most challenging game against Stanford as they steam rolled them at home.  Now, I have not been high on this team and you have even heard me bashing QB Sam Darnold on my podcast.  However, it just seems liket he right time to buy in on USC when everyone else is selling.  Let’s get into the match up.

First of all on paper it looks like Washington State has a great defense, but they have faced offenses who are ranked 92nd, 93rd, and 104th in yards per play offense.  Overall they have faced the 112th ranked strength of schedule compared to USC’s #12 ranked schedule.  I’m not buying Washington State as a top 25 team.  This team did not have to face USC a year ago, and when they stepped up against the best in the conference they lost big to Colorado by 14, and Washington by 28.  I see more of the same their offense is actually worse than it was a year ago, because they have been completely one dimensional averaging 2.81 ypc and throwing the ball 70% of the time.  That falls into USC’s strengths on defense.  They are a solid defense in the red zone and they rank 20th in opponent QB rating, 42nd in sack % and 12th in completion % allowed.  They are talented enough to get to Luke Faulk with a 3 or 4 man rush on Friday night.

When USC has the ball Washington State is in trouble.  They will be facing USC who does have a balanced offense that can hurt you with the run and the pass.  They haven’t seen that from any of the opponents they faced.  When the faced Boise they knocked out Brett Rypien and they still struggled and need a late 4th quarter come back to win that game.  They were so lucky to even win that game as a 13 point favorite as Boise State had a 31-10 lead in that game in the 4th quarter.  Boise State statistically appears to have a good defense, but we all know they are over rated there as well.  Boise held them to 4.84 yards play and averaged 5.57 themselves.  Boise deserved to win that game and that tells you all you need to know about this game in my opinion.  Granted I know Luke Faulk missed that game as well, but Boise also lost their starting QB and there is more of a drop off from Rypien to Cozart than there is with Falk to Hillinski and Falk still played half of the game.

At the end of the day USC is now hearing doubts from everyone in the media and this just feels like a game on a Friday night on ESPN that they will look to dominate.

BYU +102 3% PLAY

I don't think there was another team that needed a bye more than BYU.  Their offense looks like crap and many of you may be wondering why I am backing them against Utah State who put up 61 last week.  Buy low sell high my friends.  BYU has an extra week to prepare while Utah State had to play Saturday and they put up 61 on San Jose State who is giving up 50+ points a game anyway.  The time to prepare is a big deal here with BYU who I still think have enough talent to get this done. 

BYU's defnesive leader called a players only meeting.  He's also said this is "the most important game of the year."  They need a win to get back on track and I think they get it hear for several reasons.  This is a team that won 20-3 on the road at Cinci last year off a bye.  This is an offense that gets some breathing room finally and will be able to move the ball facing the #73 ranked defense (offenses faced to get that ranking - 127, 63, and 14 + FCS FOE).  Utah State has struggled vs. the run and the pass at time which is good news for BYU which hasn't been able to get anything going in their games, but they did have to play three top 30 defenses ranked 11th, 28th, and 16th. 

Beau Hodge should have a good game and they will win if they take care of the ball.  I wouldn't be surprised if we see BYU go back to their run first mentality here.  They have just 1 game over 100 yards rushing this year and they won it.  Utah State is not the same run defense as they were a few years ago ranking 85th vs. the run and has given up 100+ yards rushing in all 4 games which includes a game against San Jose Stat who ranks 127th in rushing yards per carry.  BYU has faced 3 top 25 run defenses in LSU, Utah, and Wisconsin so I'm excited to see what Hodge and this offense is able to accomplish tonight.  Hodge is also a bit of a mobile QB which should give Utah State something to think about.

At the end of the day I don't think BYU should be an under dog and they had extra time to prepare.  Whomever has moved this line 5 points from where it opened it's too much.  Utah State has lost 10 turnovers, they are highly penalized team (more so than BYU), and have scored just 46% TD's in the red zone (BYU defends 45%).  I expect BYU to get what they want here and come out with a win by a TD. 

Iowa State +6 -105 3.3% Play 

Both teams have impressive coaches, and are off a bye here with Texas playing in the most recent impressive loss at USC.  Iowa State has an impressive road loss as well at Iowa that they should have won.  Now Iowa State is at home and this game means a lot to them.  We know Iowa State is better than last year.  They beat Northern Iowa 42-24 this year (L20-25 last year), and lost to Iowa 41-44, but should have won (L3-42 last year).  Texas, I am not really sure at this point.  We know Tom Herman is a master at getting his team up for games against ranked opponents, but can he do it here?  Let's take a deeper look into this match up.

When Iowa State has the ball they are looking to pass it 56% of the time.  Jacob Park has done his part with 8 TD's and 2 INT's 8.2 yards per attempt 66.7% completion rate and he has an efficient RB in David Montgomery (5.73 yards per carry) for an overall balanced attack.  They rank 14th in yards per play which is better than Maryland and USC (Texas opponents that they struggled against).  Texas defense is worse vs. the pass than it is against the run so I like the strength of Iowa State's offense vs. the weakness of Texas defense here.  Texas struggled to both Maryland and USC on the defensive side of the ball and the jury is still out on this unit despite the USC game.

When Texas has the ball they sport the 49th ranked offense at 5.74 yards per play.  Iowa State's defense is stepping up in competition here, but they are getting key players back to their secondary in Payne and Moya that should help their pass defense which has looked to be the weakness despite having the most experience.  Texas has not relased who is going to start at QB, but I don't think it will matter either way.  Texas needs to set up the run to win games and allow their QB's to have good games.  So the question is can Texas run the ball?  In both of their losses against USC and Maryland the answer was a resounding NO.  They were unable to eclipse 100 yards.  Maryland ranks 98th in run defense and USC ranks 76th allowing 4.34 ypc.  Iowa State's unit comes in ranking 21st allowing 3.14 ypc.  Now I do see Texas being able to run if they go with Sam Ehlinger at QB, but Ehlinger is not a passer yet and I think he will be forced into mistakes.  Texas also has a ton of injuries on the offensive line and TE which could impact their ability to block on the road.  Iowa State ranking 38th in sack %, and Texas is 94th allowing 7.58% sacks.  Iowa State is 6th at protecting their QB with a 1.25% sack rate.  

Matt Campbell is a very good coach and is flying under the radar this is a huge game for his program and with the extra time off I see them being in a position to win the game late.  He went 4-1 ATS in the home dog role last year.  Tom Herman at Houston last year much better in the dog role than the favorite role. 

Ball State +7.5 3.3% play

This is the third week in a row we are fading Western Kentucky.  Once for our POD vs. Illinois an easy winner.  Last week we took LA Tech +225 as our dog of the week and it was a winner.  Now Ball State visits Western Kentucky as over a TD dog and we will continue to fade Western Kentucky and this coaching staff.

Ball State has QB Riley Neal, a big tall QB who is completing 67% of his passes and has 6TD’s.  This is actually the best QB Western Kentucky has faced all year.  Ball State actually played significantly better against Illinois and did so on the road where Western Kentucky had them at home.  Ball State was +159 yards and should have won that game while Western Kentucky was -66 yards.

Overall Western Kentucky lost a ton on offense from a year ago including two NFL WR’s.  Western Kentucky is off a deflating loss to Louisiana Tech.  Western Kentucky’s stats paint a serious picture.  They were +108 ypg vs. what their opponents gave up last year.  This year they haven’t exactly played tough defenses and they are averaging -165 yards per game compared to what their opponents give up.  The coaching staff is the biggest difference.  Just look at what Jeff Brohm is doing at Purdue.  Meanwhile, Mike Stanford has his hands full and his OC and DC are first timers.  For Ball State, Mike Neu is in his second year and is not new to being a head coach.  He was a QB coach for the Saints 2014 & 2015.  He was an AFL coach of the year back in 2004 where he spent 5 years as a head coach.  His assistants OC, Joey Lynch is in his 4th year running this offense, and DC David Elson is in his 6th year as a DC.  Advantage Ball State.

FAU +150 2.5% DOG OF THE WEEK

This feels like a game FAU would have been favored in before the season started, but Buffalo has played so well in their close loses to Minnesota and Army.  FAU impressed me in their road trip to Wisconsin, and finally got their first win against Bethune Cookman.  FAU, out of C-USA has one of the more experienced teams in the country and an interesting coaching staff that I feel gets bad media.  CUSA is 23-15 vs. the MAC since 2010 and Buffalo resides in the weaker division for sure in the MAC East and picked to finish last.

I think FAU has more athletic talent and should win this game as they do have revenge from 2015.  In 2015 they lost at home by 18 points despite being +200 yards in the game.  The big reason was 4 turnovers.  This year they are +2 in TO margin while Buffalo is -2.  I think Kiffin has his team ready and the offense under Briles is just starting to click.

Nevada +28 3.3% play

Washington State in a big look ahead spot having to face USC at home next week.  Washington State is notorious for coming up short in big games and if this was a road game I wouldn’t be afraid to bet on Nevada on the money line.  Nevada lost to Idaho State last week at home, but it was mainly due to turning the ball over as they outgained them by 40 yards.  Washington State beat Oregon State by 29 points, but only had +137 yards in the game in a very misleading final.

The bottom line here is Nevada is an improved team compared to last year.  We are getting value here as Nevada had a crazy lost to Idaho State as a 34 point favorite.  We have seen an improved Nevada team show up in the first two games where they had a lead late at Northwestern.  They lost to a very good Toledo team and had only -40 yards.  Nevada also runs a 3-3-5 defense that can be confusing for QB’s and although Luke Falk may just be fine I could see him struggling in the red zone.  This defense held Northwestern & Toledo to 50% combined in red zone TD%.  

Miami Ohio +100 5.5% POD

The Red Hawks are flying under the radar.  They closed last season with 6 straight wins, but some bad luck in the Marshall game to start the year and a tough loss this past weekend against Cinci leaves this team with plenty of value for week #4.  They are one of the most experienced teams in the country with 17 returning starters and their defense is tops in the MAC a year ago returns 8 starters and already looks the part.

Central Michigan has put up some points, but have also given up plenty.  They gave up 27 and 470 yards to a very bad Kansas team.  Their strengths are passing the ball, and defending the pass, but I see Miami Ohio’s pass defense which is among the best in the country shutting Shane Morris down.  This is a one dimensional team right now and Miami Ohio is too good of a defense not to shut it down.  Central Michigan even with their success has only converted 25% on third down and have actually struggled in the red zone as well. 

Miami Ohio’s offense at some point has to step up and I think now that MAC play has started it’s almost like a fresh start.  Gus Ragland had 15 TD’s and only 0 INT’s in MAC play a year ago including a 4TD performance against Central Michigan.  I expect Miami Ohio to play their best game here and get a very big win to start MAC play. 

Appalachian State +5.5 3.3% play

App State looked as bad as you can against a very bad Texas State team last week and are now 0-3 ATS while Wake Forest has looked as good as possible at 3-0 ATS.  Actually had them as a -2.5 favorite before the season started hosting Wake Forest, but the first 3 weeks of the season has changed a lot and we are getting major line value.  Actually Wake Forest is a bigger favorite here than Miami was a year ago and maybe folks remember Miami’s 45-10 victory, but this is a much more manageable game for App State and I feel like they will get the upset.

In reality who has Wake Forest really played?  They beat Boston College big, but had +4 TO Margin and were only +4 total yards.  Utah State looks to be very bad this year and I get they are 3-0, but they are playing a very good group of 5 team.  App State held Georgia to just 368 yards in their opener and had 136 yards rushing on that very good Georgia defense.  Wake Forest defense has shown some vulnerabilities defending the run as they have allowed 207, 142 and 42 yards in their three games.

The running game is App State’s strength behind Jalin Moore the Sun Belt player of the year.  He’s off to a slow start, but this running game also leans on senior Terrence Upshaw and their Sr. QB Taylor Lamb who actually had 66 yards rushing at Georgia.

App State’s defense is what is flying under the radar in this game for me and I like that they are at home in what is their biggest game of the year.  Wake is only 94 miles away and Wake Forest actually has Florida State on deck so this is also a possible look ahead spot. 

Old Dominion +28.5 2.2%

This spread is inflated based off last week’s games, but Virginia Tech really has not played that well.  They actually trailed 17-7 in the first quarter to East Carolina and they gave up records in yards to open the season against West Virginia.  Old Dominion’s offense won’t scare anyone, but they just turned to a young QB at half time last week who led 3 scoring drives at North Carolina.  I think it could be the spark they are looking for.

On the flip side this is a major look ahead spot for Virginia Tech who will host Clemson next week.  Although I think Justin Fuentes is one of the best coaches, Old Dominion has a very well coached team behind Bobby Wilder in his 9th year.  Wilder will coach to his teams strengths and he started to recruit more strength and size the last few years and it has already shown up on the defensive side of the ball.  I think the total is very indicative of Old Dominion’s defense sitting at 52.  This is the best offensive and defensive lines that Wilder has had and I think they can put up enough points to cover this spread that should be more like -23.

Utah -3 buy ½ point -130 5% NCAAF POD

To me there is no doubt that Utah is the better team and has the better coach in this game as Kyle Whittingham is a coach I would take over most.  It seems like this team finally found it’s QB in Tyler Huntley who I believe is just getting started.  Now there have been times where this offense has looked a bit off so far this season with 22 penalties in their first two games, but last week they only had 6 and they continue to improve.  Huntley provides that elusive run pass offense and he is a killer in the running game.  Arizona really hasn’t faced a QB That can run like this since Marcus Mariotta.  Huntley is also completing 72% of his plays for 7.8 yds/att and was impressive against a very good BYU defense completing 28-37 for 314 passing yards and the big key, 0 INT’s!

Arizona just came off 63 points, but that was against UTEP and it was in misleading fashion.  They barely eclipsed 500 yards, and benefited from playing a depleted UTEP team and had an average starting field position of the 39.7 yard line.  That won’t happen against the Utes who have a top 10 special teams unit each of the last three years and probably the best punter in Mitch Wishnowsky.  Arizona ranked 115th in special teams last year.

The key of this game is whether or not Utah can stop the run.  That’s really what drives the success of Arizona’s offense.  Utah allowing under 2 yards per carry so far this season and while this is their most difficult test I think they are up for it.  Arizona already showed issues running the ball against Houston with only 3.90 ypc and I feel like Utah will be able to get an early lead forcing Arizona out of that game plan which will lead to some Utah turnovers.  Utah has already forced 9 in three games.

So why is this spread only 3 points?  Arizona really has not hit their stried yet.  Their 19-13 victory over BYU was extremely misleading and doesn’t look impressive considering how bad BYU has played.  However, I think BYU always gets up for Utah and even then they were losing 16-0 in the third and it could have easily been 31-0.  They still had their starting QB and Utah left a ton of points out there as they struggled in the red zone, but were moving the ball well against BYU.  Utah, I think will have success moving the ball, will have the field position edge and I think their offense is only getting better.  They will limit their penalties and be better in the red zone.  Arizona has played good red zone defense, but against who?  The last two years Arizona has allowed over a 70% TD percentage.  

Virginia +13 3.3% play

Boise State is that team trending in another direction since Chris Peterson left. I don't like the coaching staff and I think Bryan Harsin despite being 31-9 has a lot more to prove as the Boise head coach. Boise blew a late game against Washington State they should have had, and then they had a misleading 28-14 victory a week ago over New Mexico as they were out gained by 13 yards in that game and New Mexico if they hadn't lost two QB's would have probably won that game.   Now, Boise was still without Brett Rypien who returns for this game, but overall I think we should expect a competitive game.  Boise State just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games, but are still being price like Boise of a few years ago.

 In comes Virginia and nobody is impressed with their 38-18 victory over Uconn where they rolled up 626 yards of offense. Bronco Mendenhall is the head coach in his second year. He's well experienced in making trips to Boise and preparing his players for this trip is something he has a lot of experience with. The 3-3-5 that Mendenhall runs defensively really tricks QB's the first time they see it. Right now Rypien hasn't seen it in his college career. He has not faced San Diego State and when he faced Virginia in his freshman year they were not running it.   We have seen it already this year with teams struggling in the first half against this Virginia defense.  I would expect Virginia to be leading this game int he first half so the first half is not a bad bet either.

South Florida / Temple Over 63 2.2% play

LSU -1.5 & Stanford -2.5 4.4% Teaser

LSU -1.5 @7PM ET

Miss State has been impressive thus far and against CUSA runner up last week scoring 57 points on 60 plays.  It was a misleading victory that in my opinion is giving us value this week.  They did not even eclipse 500 yards in that game, and Nick Fitzgerald has not proven he can pass the ball against good defenses.  LSU very capable of taking away his running game as they did last year holding this team to 56 rushing yards.  Fitzgerald against 2 opponents this year has only completed 59% of his passes.  Against Auburn, Bama, and LSU this offense struggled big time.  On paper you see Miss State scored 20 points at LSU, but they had just 270 yards and those points came late when Les Miles went conservative on offense.

LSU looks like a different team offensively this year so far.  Danny Etling is completing 71% of his passes and the running game continues to be dominant with Derrius Guice who actually averaged more yards per carry, had more TD, and more rushing yards than Leonard Fournette a year ago.  Defensively this team looks stout once again and gets their best player back in Arden Key for the first time all year.  I expect LSU to dominate this game from start to finish as there is no look ahead spot for them here.

Stanford -2.5 @10:30PM ET

Last week was Stanford’s worst game of the year.  They can only play better.  San Diego State got their big win against the PAC12 last week beating Arizona State on the road 30-20.  San Diego State is always a difficult match up and they always challenge power 5 schools, but this matchup is a difficult one for them, because Stanford plays a similar brand of football.  Stanford won’t have a hard time preparing for this game this week because they play a similar style and Stanford really wants to get back on track.

Stanford coming into the year with their most experienced team in a while with 16 returning starters including their QB Keller Christ and an exciting tailback in Bryce Love.  San Diego State also the favorites in the Mountain West West Division, but the division is down this year and San Diego State is more or less going to win it by default.  They have only 11 starters returning they lose Donnel Pumphrey.  Defensively they run a 3-3-5 that relies on speed and is typically a bad match up for a power running team.  Stanford is too well coached and far too talented to lose in back to back weeks. 

Kentucky +7 2.2%  @7:30PM ET

South Carolina 2-0 ATS, and Kentucky is 0-2 ATS.  The team that is 0-2 ATS in week 2 facing a 2-0 ATS team has covered 58% of the time over the last 5 years.  When I look at this match up I see it as a field goal game.  To this point Kentucky really hasn’t played well and hasn’t had to face the level of competition that South Carolina has.  South Carolina has been lucky and has gotten great special teams play and have been fortunate in forcing turnovers, but more so lucky recovering 4 out of the 4 possible fumbles in two games.  They also got exceptional special teams play from Deebo Samuel who has returned two kickoffs.  All of this has led to what I feel is an inflated line and a line I want to take advantage of.

South Carolina does not deserve to be a 6.5-7 point favorite even if they are at home, motivated to avoid a 4 game losing streak to Kentucky.  Both teams return a ton of starters from last year.  Both teams are slow paced teams running 60 plays per game.  Meaning 7 point spread is extremely high when you consider neither team wants to push the pace.  South Carolina is 108th in plays per game and Kentucky is 120th.

Everyone is giving Jake Bentley a ton of credit, but he really has not looked like a difference maker through two games.  His stats are nice but not worth anything in the betting market in my opinion.  The Gamecocks offense ranks 92nd passing, and 107th rushing the ball and their defense is ranked 60th and 121st vs. the pass.  That has a lot to do with the schedule, but still why is this team a 7 point favorite.

Kentucky returns 17 starters and 4 on the offensive line.  This was a team that beat Louisville on the road.  I think they will be able to move the ball with Sr. QB Stephen Johnson and RB Bennie Snell.  The turnover margin is what is going to decide this game.  I like Kentucky’s secondary which has height and their Safety Mike Edwards and LB Jordan Jones are arguably the best two defensive players on the field and they both reside on Kentucky’s sideline.  I still think South Carolina is a season away and they are very fortunate to be 2-0 at this point.  Kentucky is very good at stopping the run with their linebackers and I’m not sold on Jake Bentley quite yet.  Kentucky wins if they can continue their ability to stop the run, efficiency defense in the red zone, and if they don’t turn the ball over multiple times.  

Toledo -9 2.2% @ 7PM ET

This spread looks too high for Toledo, a MAC team facing Tulsa, an AAC team.  Normally I would tend to agree especially since Tulsa was a 10 win AAC team.  In a slow paced game this is more like -3 Toledo, but the fact of the matter is both of these teams like to play as fast as possible.  Toledo has the better defense and Tulsa is starting an inexperienced QB in Chad President who is more of a runner than he is a passer.  Tulsa just gave up 42 points to UL-Lafayette and have no regard for their defense as they ran 92 plays.  Lafayette actually had 7.95 yards per play in that game and 10 trips in Tulsa’s territory, but only came away with 4.5 points per trip.  It’s also worth noting that Tulsa lost 4 of their top 5 offensive players.

Toledo in this game is much more balanced and they have star QB in Logan Woodside.  Woodside completed 69.1% of his passes a year ago for 45 TD’s and only 9 interceptions.  Toledo will also push the pace with 85+ plays and they held Nevada’s offense in check on the road.  Nevada is a much improved team this year (see week 1 vs. Northwestern).  Toledo will be able to run and pass in this game and that makes them more dangerous in the red zone.  Tulsa I feel will be more one dimensional and if they opt to pass too much they will more than likely have a few mistakes with President at QB