LA Tech +225 2.5% Play @ 7PM ET

Big coaching advantage here with Skip Holtz (27 wins the last three years), taking on Mike Sanford who looks like he might have destroyed what Jeff Brohm built.  Okay maybe I am exaggerating, but still Sanford in his staff have no experience and they lost a ton on offense, and the offensive line looks a mess.  It’s a bad match up against Louisana Tech who wants revenge from last year’s CUSA Championship loss.  It just so happens that they are strong on the defensive line led by Jaylon Ferguson.

LA Tech’s offense has also struggled to start the year, but had to face Miss State.  It was a misleading loss against Miss State as they gave up 57 points.  This defense is much better this year and they only gave up 459 yards to Miss State, but there were multiple non-offensive TD’s that were given up that made it a very misleading final against an SEC opponent.  At the end of the day I don’t think Western Kentucky is very good this year, their coaching staff has a lot to prove, and Louisiana Tech is hungry for revenge. 

LSU -1.5 & Stanford -2.5 4.4% Teaser

LSU -1.5 @7PM ET

Miss State has been impressive thus far and against CUSA runner up last week scoring 57 points on 60 plays.  It was a misleading victory that in my opinion is giving us value this week.  They did not even eclipse 500 yards in that game, and Nick Fitzgerald has not proven he can pass the ball against good defenses.  LSU very capable of taking away his running game as they did last year holding this team to 56 rushing yards.  Fitzgerald against 2 opponents this year has only completed 59% of his passes.  Against Auburn, Bama, and LSU this offense struggled big time.  On paper you see Miss State scored 20 points at LSU, but they had just 270 yards and those points came late when Les Miles went conservative on offense.

LSU looks like a different team offensively this year so far.  Danny Etling is completing 71% of his passes and the running game continues to be dominant with Derrius Guice who actually averaged more yards per carry, had more TD, and more rushing yards than Leonard Fournette a year ago.  Defensively this team looks stout once again and gets their best player back in Arden Key for the first time all year.  I expect LSU to dominate this game from start to finish as there is no look ahead spot for them here.

Stanford -2.5 @10:30PM ET

Last week was Stanford’s worst game of the year.  They can only play better.  San Diego State got their big win against the PAC12 last week beating Arizona State on the road 30-20.  San Diego State is always a difficult match up and they always challenge power 5 schools, but this matchup is a difficult one for them, because Stanford plays a similar brand of football.  Stanford won’t have a hard time preparing for this game this week because they play a similar style and Stanford really wants to get back on track.

Stanford coming into the year with their most experienced team in a while with 16 returning starters including their QB Keller Christ and an exciting tailback in Bryce Love.  San Diego State also the favorites in the Mountain West West Division, but the division is down this year and San Diego State is more or less going to win it by default.  They have only 11 starters returning they lose Donnel Pumphrey.  Defensively they run a 3-3-5 that relies on speed and is typically a bad match up for a power running team.  Stanford is too well coached and far too talented to lose in back to back weeks. 

Ohio State -30 2.2% play @4:30PM ET

The defensive and offensive coordinator really need a feel good game and a confidence booster to get this season back on track.  This really reminds me of 2014 where JT Barret struggled and Ohio State lost at home to Virginia Tech.  They then averaged 56 points per game over their next 4 games including a 66-0 victory over Kent State following the loss. In 2015 following their loss to Michigan State they defeated Michigan 42-13.

The question is will Army be able to move the ball with their triple option.  I actually like Ohio State’s run defense and Greg Schiano, the defensive coordinator has had a lot of success stopping it in the past when he was the HC at Rutgers. He faced Army or Navy 10 times since 2005 and held those teams to an average of 13.9 points per game.  Ohio State’s strength is obviously in the run defense and they have an obvious weakness defending the pass.

Army took a step up in competition like this last year and lost 44-6 to Notre Dame.  This seems like a good spot to take Ohio State.  They should be angry after their loss and I expect them to hold Army’s offense in check and win 49-10.

BYU +16.5 5.5% POD @ 3:30PM ET

BYU has really struggled, but their schedule has been a bit rough the first few weeks and they are finally going home.  They do have to face Wisconsin here, but this is the biggest home under dog role they have been in since 2004.  BYU will face Wisconsin, a top 10 team, but is that really warranted?  Wisconsin has really struggled on offense in their first few games and in their first halfs with some misleading final scores.  In their 59-10 win over Utah State they only outgained them by 174 yards.  Against Florida Atlantic they did a lot better on yardage, but struggled to score TD’s.  Meanwhile, BYU sports one of the stingiest red zone defenses in the nation.  They are also used to playing opponents like Wisconsin.  Last year they played Utah, Michigan State, Mississippi State and went 2-1 losing by just 1 point to Utah. 

The big news here though is Tanger Mangum is down with an injury and will miss this game and we have seen this line move 3 points.  I think this is actually good news as Mangum has been playing awful and offers no dual threat capability.  Now you get Beau Hoge taking over who is much more athletic and although Wisconsin should be just fine overall in this game it does offer a different type of QB to prepare for.  Hoge is the nephew of Merril Hoge the formal NFL fullback. 

The other important thing to note is line value in this game.  The total of this game is 41 points and we are getting the home team at +17 that plays good defense against a Wisconsin offense that typically is not dominating by any means.  I expect Ty Detmer to run a different style offense with Hoge back there than Mangum and I think the overall results will be better and lead to a cover for BYU.  I would predict a final score of 23-14 Wisconsin.

Baylor +14.5 2.2% Play

As bad as Baylor has been and they have been bad, the oddsmakers have corrected them by 14 points and I see us having value on Baylor.  I acutally feel like Baylor will be a profitable team to back this season and maybe I’m jumping on them too early, but I feel like it’s a good spot.  Duke just off a big win that nobody expected and they have their biggest rival in North Carolina on deck.  Their head coach David Cutcliffe is better in my opinion in a dog role as he was last week.

Don’t sleep on Baylor’s HC Matt Rhule.  I like the change he’s announced this week at QB with Zach Smith taking over at QB.  I was never a fan of the Arizona transfer, but I understood it fit Rhule’s system more.  This to me is a move to be more competitive in games and I think it will work.  Smith played well in their surprising bowl victory over Boise State last year throwing for 375 yards 3 TD’s and 1 INT while completing 71.8% of his passes against a Boise defense that ranked 38th.

Baylor lost 17-10 last week to UTSA, but the Road Runners are not a bad team at all.  Many are picking them to finish first in the west in Conference USA ahead of Louisiana Tech.  They nearly beat Arizona State last year.  They beat a good MTSU team 45-25 on the road and only lost to Texas A&M 23-10 on the road. 

Call me crazy, but I wouldn’t even be shocked if Baylor won this game.  The Big 12 is up this year I think that is evident and Rhule probably realizes the opportunities for wins will get harder with their next two games against Oklahoma and Kansas State on the road.  This is a good opportunity to get the monkey off their back, but then again Rhule has said he’ll continue to play freshmen football players which is keeping this from being a larger play for me and taking a shot at the moneyline. 

Pitt +13.5 3.3% play @12PM ET

Pittsburgh is off a very misleading final score last week.  They actually outgained Penn State 342-312 but lost by 19 points.  They averaged just 2.60 points in Penn State territory and were -2 TO margin and the game was definitely closer than the final indicated.  Oklahoma State was -2.5 favorite at home in this match up a year ago, and this line indicates they’d be nearly a 20 point favorite at home this year.  That’s too big of a move in my opinion.

Pitt is 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 games following a SU loss.  The key to the game is whether or not Pitt can run the ball.  I don’t hold a lot of trust in Max Browne.  He’s looked awful to start and the former USC QB, and 5 star recruit is not going to win them this game.  They were able to run the ball 45 times against Penn State which was impressive and if they can do the same with Oklahoma State they will shorten this game which is what I am betting on.

Oklahoma State could be peaking ahead to their Big 12 conference game against TCU next week and showed vulnerabilities against the run against Tulsa (244 yards rushing) and they gave up nearly 300 in last year’s match up.  Pittsburgh at home where they have been very good under Narduzi going 6-1 last year (1-0 ATS as a dog).

Air Force / Michigan Over 48.5 3.3% play @ 12PM ET

Air Force had an extra week to prepare for this game and should be very healthy and they should have a very good offensive game plan.  Michigan I predict will give up 14 points or more in this one as they are not used to seeing a triple option team like Air Force.  I expect them to want to get up big early with big plays down field and then get in the backups to avoid any injuries to their young defense that has to go up against the cut blocking of Air Force’s offense.  Air Force in 2015 at a very good Michigan State team scored 21 in their 35-21 loss. 

Air Force defense returns only 1 starter and should be more than capable of giving up some points to a Michigan offense that could use some confidence before going on the road to take on Purdue next week for their Big Ten Opener.  Michigan is Over 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games and 18-7-1 in their last 26 overall.  Meanwhile Air Force is over 14-6 in their last 20 games in September. 

Stanford +200 2.5% Dog of the Week!

Stanford has really dominated this series going 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings which include 6-1 ATS at USC.  To me USC is getting far too much hype and their defense is not up to a college football playoff caliber level and it will show again this weekend in my opinion.  I watched the USC vs. Western Michigan game again and while Western Michigan is very good running the ball and have good running backs I don't think USC should have allowed 263 yards and a 5.48 ypc.  Stanford rushed for 302 yards a year ago and with USC returning 7 starters I don't see why Stanford won't be able to control this game again at the line of scrimmage.

Now, USC is a better team than a year ago whent hey lost to Stanford 27-10, but then again so is Stanford.  At that time Keller Chryst was not starting for Stanford at QB and all he has done as a starter is go 7-0 while passing for 12 TD's and only 2 interceptions.  Stanford with 16 total returning starters has an excellent shot at winning this game outright.  Not only because they should be able to run the ball and control the game, but I also think they will force Darnold into mistakes.

Darnold was sacked only 6 times a year ago and he was sacked twice in the first game.  I was less than impressed with the protection he was getting and while he was able to make quick decisions that led to a lot of success he's going up against a much better defense.

It's also worth noting that Stanford did not play last week.  They got a little extra time to prepare for their game of the year.  Granted they did have to travel from Australia, but the extra week definitely counts for something.  In fact they had an extra week to prepare for this game last year as 7.5 point favorites and won 27-10.  Since Shaw took over this team they are 16-5 with extra days to prepare and 13-8 ATS.  With extra time to prepare as an under dog they are 2-0 ATS and this dates back to 2011.  Dating back to the 2008 season they are 5-0 ATS with extra time to prepare coming into a game as a dog.  

Illinois +7.5 5.5% POD 

I know this can’t be an exciting play on Illinois after last week’s game against Ball State, but Western Kentucky did not look good in an under the radar game against a bad FCS team (Eastern Kentucky – 3-8 LY).  This is a much different Western Kentucky team than previous years as they return only 10 starters.  Mike White is back at QB, but he loses Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris who combined for 31 of his 37 passing TD’s last year and over 3,000 receiving yards.  Those are major losses on top of losing your head coach Jeff Brohm.  In comes a non-impressive coaching staff that is young without head coaching experience or coordinator experience.

This is a coaching mismatch if I ever saw one.  You have Lovie Smith on one side with former HC and DC as his coordinators.  Lovie has coached an NFL team to the Super Bowl with an awful QB.  On the flip side the Hilltoppers have Mike Sanford a first time head coach and I really don’t like the coaching tree he comes from.  His defensive coordinator Clayton White has no coordinator experience he was NC State’s special teams coach since 2013 and those units have never finished in the top 50.  Sanford’s offensive coordinator is Junior Adams who has been a “passing game coordinator,” and is another guy with little experience.  Couple that with the fact that the Hilltoppers return just 10 starters, and Illinois has been out recruiting them ranking 49th vs. 90th this past year.

Illinois does have an experienced offensive line, running backs they get an injured WR back from 2015 and although it did not show against Ball State the defense is going to be better, and I truly think the offense will be to.  IT’s also worth noting that Western Kentucky has Louisiana Tech next week their main rival in conference play as they met them in the Championship game a year ago.  I can easily see Illinois coming up with the outright upset.

Georgia +11.5 with Rutgers +1.5 4.4% Teaser

Georgia +11.5

I expect Georgia to have a shot at winning this game outright.  Notre Dame looked great against Temple last week, but Temple has a new coaching staff and and only 4 returning starters.  Georgia has 10 returning starters and are the favorites to win the SEC East at this point.  They did lose their starting QB in Jacob Eason, but actually Eason really struggled against App State last week in two series which resulted in I believe two 3 and outs.  Jake Fromm took over and led Georgia to a couple scores before the half and finished 10-15 and a 168 QB rating against an App State defense that is supposed to be pretty darn good.

Notre Dame is a bit questionable up front and I think the experienced rushing attack with Nick Chubb and Sony Michael will be the difference maker.  It’s not often you see two senior RB’s which this much talent on an SEC roster and they will help the freshmen QB Fromm in his first road game.  Notre Dame’s run defense a year ago allowed 2189 rushing yards and 23 TD’s.

Notre Dame’s Brandon Wimbush I feel will struggle in this game after completing just 56.7% of his passes he will go up against a Georgia secondary that should be even better than a year ago. 

Rutgers +1.5 Teaser

Eastern Michigan is 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up win, and 0-37 straight up all time vs. the Big Ten.  Rutgers really needs a win here, but I think they are a very much improved team this year.  We gave away a premium play on them last Friday night as a +27.5 and they covered easily as it was a 10-7 lead at half against Washington. 

Rutgers was only outgained by 59 yards in that game and they were without a starting WR in Jawaun Harris who will return for this game to form a pretty solid tandem with Janarion Grant who could be a star.  I expect Rutgers to score much more than their 14 points as this offense should be improved quite a bit from last year with veteran QB Kyle Bolin coming over from Louisville and Jerry Kill running the offense. 

As much as I like this Rutgers offense to surprise some folks this year the defense really impressed me holding Washington under 100 yards rushing. Rutgers returns 8 starters and seem to be really good in the front 7 which will make things really tough for Eastern Michigan who only put up 24 points last week against Charlotte.  The MAC looks down this year they have gone 0-4 so far this year against the Big Ten getting outscored by over 21 points per game.  Rutgers needs this one more in my opinion and I see them coasting and probably covering the spread. 

Clemson/Auburn Under 54.5 2.2% play 

At this point both offenses are far behind their team’s defenses.  This should be a defensive game in my opinion and we are getting a bit of an inflated total based on how these two offenses played last week against bad teams.  Both defenses return 7 starters on defense from the match up that was a 19-13 final.  Auburn had just 262 yards at home in this match up and Clemson has the best defensive line in the nation in my opinion and one of the best defensive coordinators and they are at home in this game.

I also feel like Clemson will play with a chip on their shoulder considering the ranking they got after winning the championship.  If I had to lean one way on the side it would be Clemson, but I feel there is far too much value in the under the total.  Auburn just 18-7-3 under in their last 28 games and Clemson is Under 16-7 in their last 23 games following a 40+ effort.  Don’t forget Clemson lost their starting RB, star WR, and star QB.  At this point in the season they will rely on their defense to win games and I expect a more conservative approach.

Missouri -2.5 3.3% play

Both offenses have 10 returning starters and both have QB’s that are getting a lot of hype, but I tend to lean towards Missouri’s offense a bit more and they are home in this game.  Drew Lock put up great numbers a year ago and I think Jake Bentley is a year away from being really really good. 

In this match up a year ago South Carolina won at home 31-21 despite being outgained because they had 3 turnovers and they had the ability to control the clock against Missouri’s banged up defense.  Last week they were able to win as dogs, but it was very misleading against NC State.  South Carolina was outgained 504 to 246 and had just 12 first downs, but gave up 29.  They were lucky to get a 97 yard kickoff return TD.

Missouri’s offense returns 10 starters, but it’s their defense everyone will want to talk about as they really took a major dip last year, but mostly because of the uptempo offense moving from 64 plays per game to 79 a year ago.  However, I see this defense improving this year because they were rattled with injuries and even though they return 5 guys more players have experience.  In what looks like an offensive game I don’t think South Carolina can hang on the road.  They had just 246 yards a week ago and put up 13, 14, 10, 7, and 7 points in road games a year ago.

Arkansas +3 -105 2.2% play

Arkansas is a tough team for me to back after last year with their blown leads, but I feel like they are the right side as a home dog.  I don’t understand the hype of TCU this was a team that barely beat Kansas on the road.  Their QB Kenny Hill has gotten hype before and his 4-14 ATS record as a starter is something to take seriously.  Hill on the road last year completed less than 60% of his passes for 7 TD’s and 6 INT’s.  He faced the following pass defenses, 85, 52, 101, 66, and 43.  Arkansas coming into the year are a much improved secondary we saw a drastic improvement last year with Paul Rhoads taking over the secondary, and now Rhoads is the defensive coordinator and this group returns 6 of their 8 guys.

Yes, backing Arkansas pains me they were a 7 point dog in their bowl game and blew a 24-0 lead and we did not cover.  However, I feel they should be a small favorite in this spot at home with the better QB in Austin Allen.  Allen will be playing behind an offensive line that should be better with 4 returning starters and I think he cuts down on the 15 interceptions he threw a year ago.  TCU’s defensive line lost their top 3 guys and have allowed 183 ypg rushing and 188 ypg the last 3.  That’s not typical of Gary Paterson’s defenses at all and I think Arkansas should have success again after rushing for 180 a year ago because Allen is a threat to throw the ball.  AT the end of the day we are getting an SEC team as a home dog against a Big 12 team with the better QB.  Go Hogs!

Georgia +11.5 with Rutgers +1.5 4.4% Teaser

Georgia +11.5

I expect Georgia to have a shot at winning this game outright.  Notre Dame looked great against Temple last week, but Temple has a new coaching staff and and only 4 returning starters.  Georgia has 10 returning starters and are the favorites to win the SEC East at this point.  They did lose their starting QB in Jacob Eason, but actually Eason really struggled against App State last week in two series which resulted in I believe two 3 and outs.  Jake Fromm took over and led Georgia to a couple scores before the half and finished 10-15 and a 168 QB rating against an App State defense that is supposed to be pretty darn good.

Notre Dame is a bit questionable up front and I think the experienced rushing attack with Nick Chubb and Sony Michael will be the difference maker.  It’s not often you see two senior RB’s which this much talent on an SEC roster and they will help the freshmen QB Fromm in his first road game.  Notre Dame’s run defense a year ago allowed 2189 rushing yards and 23 TD’s.

Notre Dame’s Brandon Wimbush I feel will struggle in this game after completing just 56.7% of his passes he will go up against a Georgia secondary that should be even better than a year ago. 

Rutgers +1.5 Teaser

Eastern Michigan is 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games following a straight up win, and 0-37 straight up all time vs. the Big Ten.  Rutgers really needs a win here, but I think they are a very much improved team this year.  We gave away a premium play on them last Friday night as a +27.5 and they covered easily as it was a 10-7 lead at half against Washington. 

Rutgers was only outgained by 59 yards in that game and they were without a starting WR in Jawaun Harris who will return for this game to form a pretty solid tandem with Janarion Grant who could be a star.  I expect Rutgers to score much more than their 14 points as this offense should be improved quite a bit from last year with veteran QB Kyle Bolin coming over from Louisville and Jerry Kill running the offense. 

As much as I like this Rutgers offense to surprise some folks this year the defense really impressed me holding Washington under 100 yards rushing. Rutgers returns 8 starters and seem to be really good in the front 7 which will make things really tough for Eastern Michigan who only put up 24 points last week against Charlotte.  The MAC looks down this year they have gone 0-4 so far this year against the Big Ten getting outscored by over 21 points per game.  Rutgers needs this one more in my opinion and I see them coasting and probably covering the spread. 

Iowa -2.5 2.2% play  

We bet Iowa last week and despite 4 turnovers they still managed a win in convincing fashion 24-3.  Meanwhile Iowa State which is a trending team for sharp bettors got revenge on Northern Iowa, but they had to force 3 interceptions and 2 were returned for TD’s.  They also gave up 13 plays of 15+ yards, and I don’t see them being able to stop Iowa’s run game as they lost 5 starters on the defensive line.  Now Matt Campbell was able to bring in a ton of JUCO’s for that unit, but it usually takes a second year for those guys to make a difference unless you are Bill Snyder.

The key to the game in my opinion is whether or not Iowa State can finally stop Iowa’s running game.  In the end I am not confident they can do so with the changes on the defensive line.  Iowa’s offensive line brings back their most experienced group in many years with 99 career starts along with Wadley at RB.  Iowa went 8-1 when they rushed for 164+ yards last year with their only loss coming in their bowl game.  Iowa State went 1-7 last year when they gave up 198+ yards and their lone win was to Kansas.  Iowa’s offense did struggle against Wyoming that returned 8 starters, but that is very typical of an Iowa offense struggling in their first game. 

This may seem like the year Iowa State gets a win, but I think Kirk Ferentz is just too good of a coach and he has 15 returning starters where it matters.  The offensive line and 8 on defense.  They held future NFL QB Josh Allen in check and stuffed the running game holding them to 3 points despite turning the ball over 4 times.  Iowa State meanwhile returns just 11 starters and have weaknesses on the offensive and defensive line at least from an experience perspective and that usually is not a recipe for beating Iowa.  Iowa is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games to boot.

Texas A&M +4.5 3.3% play

This play is all about line value and we have it with the Aggies who were 5 point favorites a year ago.  Granted I understand this game is at the Rose Bowl, but nearly a 10 point move is really crazy and it is all factored into the hype of Josh Rosen.  Rosen played in this game a year ago and he did not look good at times throwing 3 interceptions.  He missed most of last year and I don't know how he is supposed to be the savior in his first game back against a senior laden secondary.  Remember, UCLA could not run the ball last year ranking 126th in ypc and were extremely one dimensional.  Those are bad ingredients vs. a Texas A&M team that typically is ranked in the top of the nation at getting to the QB even without Myles Garret.  

On the flip side we have A&M coming into this game with less returning starters 12, compared to UCLA's 15.  The loss at QB is one many will highlight, but I don't think it is worth many points.  When you take a look at Nick Starkel he should be able to do things with his arm that Trevor Knight could not.  I also expect to see the true freshman Kellen Mond who has dual threat capabilities.  Starkel can spin it and he has two former top 10 WR recruits to toss it to including 1st team All-American Christian Kirk.  RB's Trayveon Williams, and Keith Ford offer balance which is something we don't believe UCLA has.

Josh Rosen may very well go out and have a great game, but I think it will be difficult considering he's on his 3rd offensive coordinator in 3 years.  We have seen many examples of new coaches, new systems, and struggles early in the season when this is the case.  I just do not see how UCLA could be favored by this much and the SEC is 9-2 vs. the PAC 12 over the last 6 years.  Oregon has been the only PAC12 team to defeat the SEC and that was with Marcus Marriota.  I see A&M coming up with several big stops in the red zone and this game should be decided by a FG.  Both coaches are on the hot seat and need this to propel their season.  Kevin Sumlin is used to winning in September. 

Miami Ohio +8.5 teaser w/ Alabama -1 4.4% 

Miami Ohio is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 17 returning starters and their head coach Chuck Martin has built this team the right way playing under classmen the last few years.  This was a team that started last year 0-6 before finishing 6-0 on their way to a bowl game and they look like they have a star QB in Gus Ragland who ended the year with a 17TD to 1 INT ratio as he turned this team’s season around when he took over.  Miami Ohio had the #1 defense in the MAC last year and are certainly the favorites to win the MAC East as far as I am concerned. 

Marshall is on my list of teams who should make the biggest improvement, but this is a tough spot for the Herd who went 3-9 last year and were out gained by over 100 yards in conference play.  Marshall also has a look ahead to NC State next week while Miami Ohio has Austin Peay.  This line has moved 2.5 points in our favor and with the teaser I feel very confident we should get the cover as I have Miami Ohio as a favorite in this spot.  Need more assurance?  Miami Ohio lost to Western Kentucky in September by the score of 31-24 while Marshall lost in late November 6-60.  Only Alabama, and Vanderbilt held Western Kentucky to less points in 2016.

Alabama -1

Okay, so there is a lot of hype leading up to this game and I wouldn’t fade Nick Saban following a loss or with extra time to prepare.  He’s also facing a former assistant and has gone 10-0 in those games.  Alabama is reloaded once again, but I don’t think it will take as long as it has in the past to show improvement right away with their QB coming back in Jalen Hurts as well as their top 3 RB’s.

For Florida State I understand why people are excited and why they are ranked #3 in the nation, but this is just an awful game to start your season.  Florida State returns 15 starters, but they lose by far their best offensive and defensive player.  DeMarcus Walker, 16 sacks a season ago is gone along with Dalvin Cook.  I also question whether or not Florida State’s OL can protect Deondre Francois who had a great season a year ago, but was sacked 36 times along the way.  I just don’t see how this Florida State offense with many question marks will be able to put up enough points to win this game while their defense also has question marks particularly in the run defense.  In their 3 losses a year ago they allowed 5 yards per game nearly 200 yards and 11 TD’s.  I see more of the same in this one as Alabama pounds it away with their experienced back field and mobile QB.

Purdue +24.5 3.3% play

Louisville might be peaking ahead to the following weak against North Carolina here which will be a conference game.  Meanwhile it was very evident that defenses started to figure out Lamar Jackson down the stretch as they lost their final 3 games and managed just 19 ppg over that span.  Jackson is back of course and I expect the Heisman slump in 2017 with only 4 returning starters on offense compared to 9 a season ago.  They lose their top 3 receivers, top rusher and the OL which allowed 47 sacks a season ago will have issues again. Louisville is 7th in the conference in their recruiting class and I don’t expect them to match last year’s offensive numbers.  Purdue’s defense will be better this year returning 8 starters, and their strength is at LB which should help containing Lamar Jackson.

Meanwhile Purdue’s offense is definitely trending up with Jeff Brohm taking over as the head coach.  Brohm did some amazing things at Western Kentucky even after losing QB’s to the NFL he has become a bit of a QB whisperer.  He should definitely help QB David Blough cut down on the turnovers which will make a world of difference for this team.  Blough, a bit of a gunslinger was the #38 QB coming out of high school.  Brohm, also very familiar with Bobby Petrino’s offense as he was Petrino’s OC at Western Kentucky.  I do think that will benefit the dog, and it also helps that Petrino knows Brohm and is friendly.  Even if Louisville is up big it leaves a back door cover and I don’t see Petrino running it up against a friend especially with two ACC opponents on deck. 

Miami Ohio +8.5 teaser

Miami Ohio is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 17 returning starters and their head coach Chuck Martin has built this team the right way playing under classmen the last few years.  This was a team that started last year 0-6 before finishing 6-0 on their way to a bowl game and they look like they have a star QB in Gus Ragland who ended the year with a 17TD to 1 INT ratio as he turned this team’s season around when he took over.  Miami Ohio had the #1 defense in the MAC last year and are certainly the favorites to win the MAC East as far as I am concerned. 

Marshall is on my list of teams who should make the biggest improvement, but this is a tough spot for the Herd who went 3-9 last year and were out gained by over 100 yards in conference play.  Marshall also has a look ahead to NC State next week while Miami Ohio has Austin Peay.  This line has moved 2.5 points in our favor and with the teaser I feel very confident we should get the cover as I have Miami Ohio as a favorite in this spot.  Need more assurance?  Miami Ohio lost to Western Kentucky in September by the score of 31-24 while Marshall lost in late November 6-60.  Only Alabama, and Vanderbilt held Western Kentucky to less points in 2016.

Alabama -1

Okay, so there is a lot of hype leading up to this game and I wouldn’t fade Nick Saban following a loss or with extra time to prepare.  He’s also facing a former assistant and has gone 10-0 in those games.  Alabama is reloaded once again, but I don’t think it will take as long as it has in the past to show improvement right away with their QB coming back in Jalen Hurts as well as their top 3 RB’s.

For Florida State I understand why people are excited and why they are ranked #3 in the nation, but this is just an awful game to start your season.  Florida State returns 15 starters, but they lose by far their best offensive and defensive player.  DeMarcus Walker, 16 sacks a season ago is gone along with Dalvin Cook.  I also question whether or not Florida State’s OL can protect Deondre Francois who had a great season a year ago, but was sacked 36 times along the way.  I just don’t see how this Florida State offense with many question marks will be able to put up enough points to win this game while their defense also has question marks particularly in the run defense.  In their 3 losses a year ago they allowed 5 yards per game nearly 200 yards and 11 TD’s.  I see more of the same in this one as Alabama pounds it away with their experienced back field and mobile QB.

Florida +5.5 5.5% POD

You may be able to wait and pick up a +6, but I don’t think you need to.  This spread has moved in our favor due to many Florida player suspensions which we have been aware of and always back a team that has to rally together.  Jim McElwain is an extremely under rated head coach and I mentioned this was a game I circled in the off season.  Michigan has just 5 returning starters, and this is the time you want to face an inexperienced team.

Florida will be without a few starters, but I recall teams being able to rally and play and win as bigger under dogs.  We backed Minnesota last year in the bowl game against Washington State as a 10 point dog.  They won 17-12 and held a potent Washington State team to 6 points until late in the game.  Florida was also in a similar situation last year against LSU and they were able to come out with a win on the road by the score of 16-10.  If anything this game just gave us 2 points of value and I already felt like Florida should be favored.

Florida has 14 returning starters and 9 on offense, but will be shorthanded without Antonio Callaway, and Jordan Scarlett at RB.  I’m not really worried as Florida has plenty of talent to pull from and I am more confident by the fact that they have their most experienced offensive line in years with 63 starts led by Martez Ivey second team ALL-SEC..  Felieipe Franks (#6 QB out of HS), the red shirt freshman will make the start at QB, and Malik Zaire will probably get some playing time and is a threat to run.  Defensively this team returns just 5 starters, but as I mentioned Michigan returns just 1.  Florida’s starters returning is also a bit misleading as this defense experienced a crazy amount of injuries on their defense a year ago leading to more guys getting experience that will help them in this game.

It’s worth noting Florida lost to Michigan in their bowl game in 2015, but the SEC is 22-11 against the Big Ten since 2010 outscoring them 30.9 to 21.1.  The Gators are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big Ten and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. 

Nevada +24 2.2% play

Northwestern returns 16 starters, but they lose their best player in my opinion in receiver Austin Carr who had a sensational year last year.  This is a team that has played down to their competition under Pat Fitzgerald.  In 2016 they lost 7-9 to Illinois State as double digit favorites.  In 2014 they lost ATS as TD or more favorites in three straight games to open the season.  In 2013 they lost ATS to Western Michigan and Maine as huge dogs.  This is a team that’s not really used to being a big favorite and when they are they typically don’t blow teams out.  The hype is there with Thorson at QB, and I think 24 points is far too many.  Northwestern most likely looking past Nevada and towards their road game at Duke, a big one in non-conference play. 

Meanwhile Nevada is on my list of teams for most improved in 2017.  Nevada has an Alabama transfer in David Cornwell Jr. running the air raid offense and I am predicting a major improvement in the offense as I see them putting up points.  Cornwell was the #6 QB out of high school, but did not play at Bama. What I am most excited about is Nevada’s defense, which brings in a new defensive coordinator in Jeff Casteel.  Casteel will bring with him and he’s a 3-3-5 defense which is always difficult to prepare for.  I imagine Clayton Thorson really is not used to seeing this type of defense and it prove difficult to put up a lot of points against.   Nevada also has 9 returning starters on defense that over achieved last year and will likely improve again.  

Florida Atlantic +10 3.3% play

Navy returns some new starters, but they are breaking in a new QB this year who started and did not look good in the game against Army to end the year.  This would have been a play of the day if the line did not move against me like it has, but I feel still very strongly about FAU    and my algorithms also feel strongly with an 11-2 ATS edge.

I spoke about this team on my podcast quite a bit this off season and it’s not just the splash of Lane Kiffin who I feel is an under rated coach.  This is FAU’s best recruiting class ever ranked #1 in Conference USA and 69th overall, Navy was 97th.  They also bring in a potential star at QB in De’Andre Johson who I think will make some splashes this season.  The former Florida State QB out of high school played at JUCO Eastern Mississippi and comes over with his QB coach Clint Tricket.  Kiffin also brings over another young coach in Kendal Briles to lead the offense.  Unfortunate for Briles he shares the same last name as his father, but after beign the OC at Baylor the last two years this is a great move for him and should get him another job after the year.

Other reasons to like Florida Atlantic are the fact that they are among the most experienced teams in the country returning 17 total starters and they lost just 8 letterman.  They have been a team lacking confidence the last two years with 7 combined net close losses including multiple blown fourth quarter leads.  They have 3 guys on offense that I feel are first team All-CUSA in WR Kalib Woods, C antonyo Woods, and T Reggie Bain.  Meanwhile the defense has two as well in S Jalen Young, and LB Azeez Al-Shaair.

Navy always out performs expectations, but I prefer to back them as an underdog on the road not a double digit favorite.  They break in a new QB which is the most important position on a triple option team.  FAU has had all summer to prepare for the offense they will face and I think they have the potential of winning this game outright.  

Rutgers +27.5 3.3% play

Washington won this game last year by the score of 48-13 at home, but the final was a bit misleading.  If you can believe it Rutgers was only -76 yards in the game and Washington had 2 special team turnovers.  Washington obviously getting a lot of public money coming off last season, but there are many reasons not to like this team as much as last year.  Washington’s defense was excellent, because they were able to defend the pass, but they lose 3 key players in the secondary and return 13 total starters. 

Washington was also extremely fortunate last year leading the nation in +18 turnovers which typically means they won’t be as lucky the next year.  Teams with +14 or more turnovers in a season have a weaker or same record the following season 77% of the time dating back to 1991.

While the offense should be just as potent with Browning back this is also a long road trip from the state of Washington to the state of New Jersey and they are bigger favorites than last year when they were home.  They are also without arguably their best defensive player in LB Azeem Victor who is suspended for this game.

There are a lot of things to like about Rutgers moving forward.  First of all Chris Ash is in his second year and they return 13 starters.  Now the offense averaged just 15.7 ppg a year ago, and that will likely keep many people from betting them, but not me.  I like the moves they made brining in Jerry Kill, an excellent coach at Minnesota to coach this offense.  With Kill they also bring over a grad transfer in QB Kyle Bolin from Louisville to run the offense along with two other power 5 transfers at WR and they also get Janarion Grant back from injury at WR.  

Indiana +21 2.2% play

There are some interesting story lines here with Kevin Wilson on the other side of the field.  Wilson, now the offensive coordinator at Ohio State was the head coach of Indiana last year, but was finally let get and Tom Allen took over.  No doubt that his former players have a chip on their shoulder and would like nothing more than to upset Ohio State at home on Thursday night.  It may not happen, but I think 21 points is far too many to play with.

Tom Allen has the defense improving and returns 9 starters to this year’s team and it is obviously the strength.  Meanwhile the offense brings back their QB in Richard Lagow and two 1,000 yard receivers in Nick Westbrook and Simmie Cobbs who was injured all last year.  Right now Ohio State’s weakness is in the secondary and I anticipate they will try to put pressure on that unit to stop them.  I think Indiana will be able to put up some points in this one and Tom Allen clearly wants this against his former coach.  Now I’m not totally blind by the fact that Urban Meyer is great ATS with extra time to prepare, but this offense even behind JT Barret really struggled down the stretch last year.  Indiana has the LB play with Tegray Scales to keep him in check and out of the end zone in the red zone which is this defenses strength.  I expect a close game throughout before Ohio State pulls away late.

Florida International +17 3.3% play

FIU went 4-8 last year and fired their head coach and they bring in Butch Davis who has a long history of winning in the state of Florida.  He is smart enough to join a team with plenty of experience as FIU is the #5 ranked team in experience and they return 15 starters including a veteran QB who gets all of his receivers back in Alex McGough.  McGouh had a really good Sophomore campaign completing 64% of his passes 21TD’s to just 8 interceptions, but 2016 he was fighting through injuries and had 13 TD’s to just 11 interceptions.  I think he has a huge year as a senior.  

Defensively this team brings back 81% of their tackles and are very strong at the linebacker spot with Wint and Williams.  Davis also brought in eight 3 star guys on the defense in his first year so the future looks bright.  FIU did struggle 53-14 against UCF last year, but the year before they beat them 15-14.  I think the score from the year before has this spread off by nearly a TD which shows me enough value to pull the trigger, but before we finalize things let’s take a look at Central Florida.

UCF, improved drastically last year in Scott Frost’s first year after going 0-12 in 2015 they went 6-7, but all 6 wins came against teams not in the top 80.  0-6 vs. teams not in the top 80 as they were -16ppg in those games.  In reality Conference USA is not far off from the American Athletic as they have gone 10-11 overall and 4-0 in bowl games against AAC.  FIU really needs this game and with UCF only returning 4 starters I see their defense taking a step back.  UCF’s offense which was supposed to do great things under Frost will likely be better, but how big of a jump can they make?   They ranked 117th in S&P last year and their QB Mckenzie Milton has not really impressed me too much.

A reminder with FIU who suffered huge injuries the last two years.  This was a team that was leading Indiana 13-12 to start the 4th quarter before losing 34-13.  UCF has bigger games on their radar with their next 3 games being against Memphis, Maryland and Georgia Tech. 

Oregon State +4 4.4% NCAAF POD

The first match up of the 2017 season falls between Pac 12 and the Mountain West.  Both teams are really in similar situations as you have Oregon State and Gary Anderson in his third year while you have Colorado State’s Mike Bobbo in his third year.  Bobbo and Colorado State have gone to back to back bowls and really lit it up down the stretch.  They come into this game with a ton of hype with their new stadium, and how they finished last year and all that tells me is that we have an inflated line.

Colorado State returns 14 starters while Oregon State returns 15.  The 2 and 5 year recruiting rankings are in favor of Oregon State 43/49 to 69/79 so Oregon State should really be favored and when you look at the front lines of both teams I love the value we are getting here with Oregon State.  The Beavers have improved each of the last two years on offense and defense and I think it’s finally time for them to take the next step and get back to a bowl game.  Their offense improved by over a TD last year and they return both Nall and Pierce who both averaged over 5 yards per carry.  Along with the RB’s they return 3 QB’s with starting experience, but in this game they can really lean on the run.

When you look at both teams they are very good at running the ball, but very bad at stopping it a year ago.  Oregon State #32nd in running the ball while Colorado State was #24, but Colorado State faced only 4 teams in the top 50 in stopping the run while Oregon State faced 7.  Defensively Oregon State faced 4 top 30 running teams on their way to struggling ranking 90th.  Colorado State was not any better at 91st andt hey faced just 2 teams in the top 30.  They gave up 200+ yards rushing 9 times last year and Oregon State went 4-0 when they could run the ball and control the line of scrimmage.

Both teams come in with their most experienced teams in three years.  I like what Oregon State has along the defensive line and I see them improving more as they return all of their starters on the defensive line and add in Michigan State/JUCO transfer Craig Evans who is a330lb linemen.  Compare that with Colorado State who on paper have 3 returning starters, but lost 3 defensive tackles and a DE.  Depth is definitely a factor here. 

You also have to handicap the fact that Colorado State will face Colorado the following week their instate rival.  They definitely can’t help but look ahead to that game that means a lot more than this game.  Oregon State has a tough schedule and would love to start the season 2-0 with Portland State on deck.   Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Mountain West (losers to Boise last year) and in case you are wondering the PAC 12 IS 49-17 since 2010 against the Mountain West while outscoring opponents by 13.4ppg.  In fact they have averaged over 34 ppg each of the last 4 years.

Clemson +7 5.5% POD

There are a couple of 7's out there, but I still love this at +6 as this line may move in that direction. 

If you have read my analysis all bowl season you would have learned that I was all over the ACC because of the experience they had vs. other power 5 schools.  The case is still true after the ACC went 9-3 ATS in bowl games.  ACC went 9-4 this year as opposed to 4-6 a year ago against the SEC and as a football conference has come a long way.  The SEC is 3-1 this bowl season over the SEC with their only loss being LSU defeating Louisville.  Clemson has had an up and down year, but their offense is very much under rated still when you factor in that they went against 9 top 40 defenses.  Compare that with Alabama’s offense which has faced a total of 6.  I also think Clemson’s defense is under rated and I am a bit disappointed that they played so well in their last game shutting out Ohio State.

Ohio State has a similar offense when you think about it.  Sure the talent on the offensive line is a bit better with Alabama, but I also think it’s a bit hidden.  Compared to last year when Alabama faced defenses with an average rank of 39th overall they faced an average rank of 56.5.  Jalen Hurts, the freshmen QB has not always played well and the offense has struggled against their top opponents in terms of defense.  LSU, it was a 0-0 game in the 4th, Auburn it was 13-9 at the half, Florida despite giving up 54 points actually only gave up 372 yards and it was a game early.  Washington also played well giving up just 17 points (24 total, as 7 came on a pick six).  Clemson who has the 6th ranked defense is going to be a challenge for Hurts and this offense in my opinion.  Clemson has not missed a beat with Brent Venables the defensive coordinator that I touted last week when I gave out Clemson.  This defense leads the nation in tackles for loss and has enough talent to give Alabama issues.

The other thing to consider other than the fact that the ACC is a better overall conference this year and the Clemson faced an overall tougher schedule while Alabama faced a weaker schedule this year is the fact that Clemson had more returning starters than Alabama did this year.  Many are touting this defense to be the best ever at Alabama and it’s certainly talented, but they haven’t really faced an offense as good as Clemson.  Clemson in last year’s title game had 31 first downs to Alabama’s 18.  They had 550 total yards to 473 yards.  We have seen this Alabama defense struggle against good QB’s and there aren’t many on their schedule.  I don’t count Bronwing from Washington he barely faced a defense all year and I knew he would struggle.  Alabama though against Chad Kelly, a guy who has weapons really struggled as Kelly was 26-41, 421 yards 3 TD’s and 1 interception.  Ole Miss lost that game 48-43, but would have won if Alabama did not recover 4 of the 5 overall fumbles in that game.  I feel strongly that Alabama is actually lucky to be undefeated and there is a bit of misleading info out there about this team who just fired their offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin so he could go work at Florida Atlantic on his new job.  We really haven’t seen that before and maybe it was the best decision, but it’s definitely creating some distractions.

Special teams as we know is a very key factor in every game.  While Clemson is still not a top special teams unit they have really improved.  IT’s what killed them in the championship game a year ago where they were handling the game well with a 14-7 lead and then later a 24-21 lead.  However, they gave Alabama great field position too often and they allowed Kenyan Drake to return a kick 95 yards.  That simply can’t happen and I don’t think it will this time around.  Last year Clemson ranked 105th in special teams and this year they rank 65th.  Alabama last year ranked 24th and now they rank 47th.  These two units are not as far apart.

The difference is going to be Deshaun Watson who will sell out for this game.  He remembers last year and he has been saving his best efforts for the playoffs.  He was able to run against Alabama last year and this year he has several weapons back that he didn’t a year ago.  This offense in my opinion is better and more experienced with Gallman & Scott playing last year in this game in the backfield.  Hunter Renfrow was the surprise star of last year and he’s back, but probably the most exciting thing is the return of Mike Williams at WR.  Also TE Jordan Leggett who had a big game last year also returns.  Add that all up and I would say Clemson wins this game.  The only reason I’m not going to just take them on the money line is Watson might have a key interception in this game that turns the momentum.  Alabama has been able to do that every single game and Watson likes to take risks at times that have hurt him.  He had a couple interceptions against Ohio State, but they still won 31-0.  I don’t think he can get conservative in this game, but I’m not 100% confident in him playing a clean game against this defense, but I think Clemson’s defense is good enough to keep this within a field goal.

Auburn +120 5.5% POD

Auburn feels lucky to be in the Sugar Bowl with 4 losses, but this is a better team than their record indicates.  Part of playing in the best division in college football is you get hit with injuries and that’s what happened to this team.  Sean White, their QB who led the SEC in pass efficiency is back for this game and their bruising RB Pettway also returns and I like his chances to really control this game against Oklahoma who struggles vs. the run ranking 69th in ypc allowed.  Oklahoma allowed 200+ yards 4 times this year including 3 times to close the season. 

Oklahoma’s defense ranks 75th and faced an average offense ranking 58th while Auburn’s defense ranks 25th and faced an average offense ranking 57.9.  I’ll lean towards the better defense almost every time when getting points and that’s the case in this game here today.  Oklahoma’s #1 ranked offense is getting a lot of hype.  They sent two guys to the Heisman Trophy ceremony, but they faced just three teams in the top 50 in total defense and 2 of them beat them.  Houston beat Oklahoma with the 16th ranked defense and 95th ranked offense.  Ohio State beat them with the 3rd ranked defense and 45th ranked offense.  Now they face Auburn whom I think is the best team on their schedule ranking 25th with the 36th ranked offense.  Auburn’s offense still good despite what many think and the fact that they are now healthy and motivated to beat the Big 12 Champions.  This should be exciting!

Penn State +7.5 3.3% play 

I’ll gladly take this recent line movement and take the Nittany Lions at +7.5 here today.  I honestly do not really understand it when you consider the PAC 12 is down this year and has gone 0-5 ATS in bowl games.  Now they definitely get their best team playing here in USC, but Penn State is also having a fantastic year and may be the most balanced team that USC has faced since Alabama.

Both these teams got hot down the stretch but Penn State did so in impressive fashion averaging 31.5 points against top 25 defenses.  Meanwhile USC averaged 19.5 vs. the top 35 defenses of which they only faced 4 of.  Penn State faced 7 top 25 defenses and only one team kept them under 20 points.  They have a mobile QB, a RB in Barkley who was banged up and is now healthy and a receiving corp that is really under rated.

Penn State’s defense has a tough matchup maybe their toughest yet, but with 7.5 points to work with I feel confident.  They can stop the run and put USC in difficult spots with a top tier pass rush led by Garret Sickels and Evan Schwan I believe they can force USC into a mistake that will give them a chance to win this game in the end.  After all they have the advantage in the front 7 believe it or not as USC is ranked77th in havoc rate while Penn State is ranked 8th and has 112 tackles for loss on the season.  I also think Penn State has the better coaching staff in this match up! 

Wisconsin -8 2.2% play

It’s easy to say looking at Wisconsin’s season and think it’s a failure, but coming into the season they were expected to be one season away, but they got into the Big Ten Championship game.  Although they lost that game and some might think they don’t want to play in this game I could not disagree more.  First of all this is not the type of team to have those type of feelings towards playing a football game.  Secondly it’s the Cotton Bowl against an undefeated team that has gone 2-0 vs. the Big Ten this season.

Western Michigan is having a fabulous season, but when I look at their season they are going to have to deal with a few different things that they haven’t had to in the past.  #1, what do they do when they can’t run the ball?  Wisconsin is stout against the run and they have pass rushing talent in T.J. Watt who can take this game over.  If Western Michigan can’t run the ball which I don’t think they can, they won’t be able to control time of possession which is something they love to do.  That creates major issues for them especially when…

Wisconsin can run the ball.  Last year Wisconsin struggled, and early this year this offense struggled to get the running game going.  However, down the stretch the running game was working well and now they face a team ranked 82nd in rushing defense.  That defense of Western Michigan probably a little worse when you consider they faced 2 teams in the top 50 all year.  Wisconsin has faced a very challenging schedule from a defensive perspective.  They faced defenses ranked an average 37.8 and 5 teams in the top 11!

Wisconsin should be able to get off the field on third down holding opponents to 26% on third down.  They also dominate in the red zone at 42% and we saw Western Michigan have major issues scoring in the red zone in their championship game.  Both teams take care of the ball so that’s not a concern, but I think Wisconsin will do a better job.  Western Michigan is going to have to go to the air in this game.  I think Wisconsin secondary wants to redeem themselves and I see them doing it by studying tendencies and making some big plays in this game which will ultimately lead to a double digit victory.

Iowa/Florida Under 40.5 3.3% play

Both of these teams need to run the ball to win this game.  Both teams have double the YPC, and YPC allowed in wins vs. their 4 losses.  I would say Iowa will have an easier time running the ball here since Florida is missing 3 key linebackers, but they can stack the box given their strength in the secondary which is a weakness for Iowa.  Iowa vs. top 30 run defenses averaged 16.4 points per game while Florida averaged 17 points so I expect this to be a low scoring game.

I really think Iowa wants this game more having lost 4 in a row, but Florida remembers their 41-7 loss vs Michigan last year well.  Intensity will be high on both sidelines for this game because of those factors.  I could make a case for both teams to win the game, but the play I feel most comfortable with is the under.  Both teams struggle on offense, but need to run the ball to win and both defenses are very good defending the run.  Both teams are very good in the red zone in terms of defense and both teams I would say care about this game deeply.

I think you see a lot of 2-4 yard runs which will keep the clock ticking in this game quite a bit and the under will be a good play. 

Clemson +130 5.5% POD

As you know I have been backing the ACC and touting them as the best conference this season.  They had by far the most experience coming back of any conference and they have certainly lived up to that this bowl season.  With the exception of Pitt who lost their star RB early in their game against Northwestern and their QB later.  The ACC is undefeated SU and ATS.  The ACC went 7-3 vs. the SEC This year, they are 4-2 vs. the Big 10.  So we have made the case that the ACC is better than the Big 10 this season. Let’s move onto coaching.

You really can’t say Dabo Swinney is better than Urban Meyer, but besides the national championships Meyer has it’s pretty damn close and pretty damn remarkable what Swinney has done here at Clemson.  Swinney went head to head with Meyer before as a dog in 2013 in their bowl game and won 40-35.  Defense will win this game and I’ll take Brent Venables, the Clemson defensive coordinator over Greg Schiano who is in his first year as the defensive coordinator and is playing by far the best offensive team and QB all year.  Venables has been here since 2012 and took this defense in 2012 to a 60th defensive ranking from a YPP perspective to 38th, #1, #11, and 6th this year.

I truly think this Clemson team has been on a mission and I really enjoyed watching the offense down the stretch.  Sure they lost some guys from last year, but they brought back more starters than both Ohio State and Alabama.  Their offense has more WR depth with Mike Williams coming back and Wayne Gallman & Deshaun Watson got hot late.  Gallman actually has 87 fewer carries than last year and that’s a good thing going into these games. 

Strength of schedule – Both teams faced a top 10 strength of schedule with elite competition in their non-conference games.  Ohio State is ranked as having the #1 SOS and Clemson has #7.  I took a deeper look I completely disagree.  Ohio State had the 3rd ranked defense and faced an average opponent ranking 67th.  Clemson had the 6th ranked defense and faced an average opponent ranking 62nd.  Clemson faced 5 top 40 offenses while Ohio State faced 4.  It’s close but I would say both teams have about the same level of talent on defense and Clemson had the tougher schedule.

Offensively Ohio State ranks 38th, and lets be honest they are a bit one dimensional with strengths in the running game as they lack a receiver and JT Barret lacks accuracy and footwork in the pocket at times.  They faced a ton of tough defenses this year on their way to that ranking an average opponent ranking 50.5.  Clemson however, has the 27th ranked offense a more balanced offense and better QB all around.  Clemson took on an average defense ranking 46.4, a tougher schedule when you consider they faced six top 30 defenses 8 top 40 defenses.  Ohio State faced 4 top 30 defenses and just 5 top 40 defenses.  Ohio State’s offense vs. top 30 defenses scored 38, 21, 30, and 30 which is impressive, but keep in mind only Michigan and Penn State had an offense that could keep Ohio State off the field.  Ohio State’s offense really struggled against Michigan and in my opinion they lost that game.  The officiating seemed to be against them, and that game went to two OT’s as Ohio State scored just 17 points in regulation and 7 of those were a defensive TD.  Clemson on the other hand in their 6 games vs. top 30 defenses averaged 35.5 points and they faced an SEC defense in non-conference play on the road.

Trenches and efficiency are big time considerations in these type of games and I feel like Clemson has the edge.  We already have shown they faced the stronger schedule and yet they did better on third down offense and defense.  Red zone TD% was another edge they had against tougher defenses.  In the trenches is where I think they have the advantage in this one they have +50 tackles for loss compared to Ohio State who was only +25 this year.  They have +32 sacks while Ohio State does even have 32 sacks as they had 26 while allowing 25.  Havoc rates Clemson ranks 4th, 7th, and 21st while Ohio State ranks 15th, 17th, and 30th.  Clemson has to watch the turnovers in this game that is their biggest threat to losing this game in my opinion.  They had 24 this year, but only 3 over their last 3 games.  They also forced 24 so it’s not all bad while Ohio State is +16 in turnover margin.  I will say Clemson ranked 118th in fumble recovery % which is essentially luck compared to Ohio State who ranks 43rd.  

If you read this far thank you.  We certainly have to break down the X-factors that are the QB’s in this game with running abilities.  Deshaun Watson really has not carried the ball a ton this year like he did a year ago, but he had 17 carries for 85 yards against Virginia Tech.  It really seems like he is saving it for these two games.  Last year he had 145 yards against Oklahoma and 73 vs. Alabama.  You really can’t stack the box against Watson with his arm he will pick you apart.  Ohio State’s young defense which has struggled in the trenches has not faced a mobile QB like this.  They were lucky to knock Tommie Armstrong out of their game early who had 4 carries for 19 yards.  McSorley from Penn State had 63 yards on 19 carries and Clayton Thorson who is not even a running QB had 44 yards on 6 carries.  Now, JT Barret is going up against a defense that had 112 tackles for loss and 46 sacks and he doesn’t have the arm or the receiving weapons that Clemson has.  Clemson also has been good against running QB’s and has faced some of the best this season.  They kept Lamar Jackson under wraps in the first half before he got lose and I think they’ll really study that tape before this game.  The other guys they faced Justin Thomas, Francois, and Jerrod Evans did not get much in 38 carries for just 68 total yards.

Alabama -14 2.2% play

I don’t like backing this team because I think their line is inflated, but I just think this is a good match up for them.  As long as they take care of the football they should win this game.  Washington has relied heavily on winning the turnover margin this year with a +21 margin making some of their games blowouts.  Alabama has had issues with their freshmen QB turning it over, but in last year’s two playoff games they did not turn the ball over.  Nick Saban knows how to get his teams prepared on extra rest and even though I like Chris Peterson who is 5-0 all time vs. AP TOP 10 teams.  I just think Peterson is not going to sneak up anyone here.

Let’s take a look at Alabama on extra rest recently.  52-6 victory over USC, 10- victory over LSU, 38-0 over Michigan State, 35-17 over Wisconsin.  It goes on from here.  Alabama’s defense wants to live up to being one the best in history and I just don’t think this QB Jake Browning is good enough and ready for this situation.  Sure his numbers are fantastic, but it was evident when he stepped up in competition he was not even close to being the same.  He played an average pass defense ranked 71.5 so  a very weak schedule.  Overall this offense has faced a defense with an average yards per play rank of 79th in the country.  Browning faced Colorado an aggressive defense and was 9-24 for 118 yards.

Washington has vulnerabilities in their run defense and stopping running QB’s.  They could not stop Arizona’s Brandon Dawkins earlier this season who had 12 carries for 183 yards.  Jalen Hurts is much better and I think as long as he doesn’t turn the ball over Alabama should win this one going away in the second half. 

Kentucky +145 2% play

Georgia Tech struggles to stop the run, but so does Kentucky.  I like Kentucky’s running game a little bit more to be honest and there is definitely more value in a game that is a toss up.  Kentucky obviously more time to prepare for a gimmick offense in the triple option which will only benefit them.  I also like the fact that these triple option teams tend not to do so well as favorites in the bowl games. 

Georgia Tech is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 bowl games. I think Kentucky has two of the best running backs in the country and I mentioned when I took Kentucky to end of the year over Louisville to end the season.  Finally coach Stoops is running the ball and playing to his strengths.  It was not always like that and now that he is running it over 60% of the time the offense is having more success.  The QB looked extremely good because of the running success against Louisville.  

LSU -2.5 BUY ½ 3% play at -125

LSU will be without Leonard Fournette, but it’s been that way the entire season.  I think LSU will be able to run the ball with Guice in this game and they are highly motivated to beat a Heisman Trophy winner.  Coach O will have this team pumped up in this one in my opinion.  Louisville showed 2 weaknesses down the stretch.

Their offense struggled when they were man handled up front.  LSU has the guy in the front 7 to give Lamar Jackson issues and force turnovers.  There is no doubt about that.  We saw what 5* Ed Oliver of Houston was able to do.  Well LSU has a bevy of talent in the front 7, but that’s not the main reason I like LSU here.

Louisville’s run defense is top 10 statistically, but when you take a stronger look you can understand why.  Their defense which is ranked 4th in yards per play allowed played a lot of bad offenses this year.  An average 85.67 ypp offensive rank which is surprising playing in the ACC this year.  What’s even more shocking is the fact that they faced 6 rushing offenses that were not ranked in the top 100.  They faced an average rushing offense ranked 89th.  Now they will face #4.  I think we are getting value here without Fournette.  Guice is a beat and was having a better season anyway.  Now that LSU doesn’t have to force the ball to Fournette I think we will see this offense look even better than it did down the stretch.  LSU also has a couple of 5 star receivers on the outside so Louisville cannot stack the box in this one.

Florida State +7 5.5% POD

Florida State has not really shown up in bowl games of late, but as an under dog they definitely do show up under Jimbo Fisher.  That’s a role they haven’t been in much, but 2-1 ATS this season as a dog.  Florida State really progressed on both sides of the ball throughout this year.  It was a challenge early for the defense who lost their defensive leader Derwyn James and having to face 5 top 40 offenses from a YPP perspective did not help.  The defense however settled in led the nation in sacks led by senior Demarcus Walker there is plenty of talent on that side of the ball.

Michigan also has a very strong defensive unit ranked 2nd in yards per play allowed, but they faced a very average offensive strength of schedule.  Their opponents were an average 78.5th yards per play on offense so it’s not a surprise why they were so dominant.  Against Ohio State ranked 38th in yards per play offense they were very good, but late in the game they had issues stopping the run, and Ohio State is very much one dimensional.  Florida State has a young, but growing QB in Deondre Francois.  I have been extremely impressed with this kids ability to lead this team and not turn the ball over and the extra prep time really benefits this Florida State offense that has serious weapons that Michigan has not faced.

Francois can be a dual threat QB if he needs to be, but the one two punch of Dalvin Cook and Patrick should provide enough balance.  Francois has some really good receivers that only got better as the season went on.  Florida State played 4 top 30 defenses in their last 5 games and scored 34, 24, 45 and 31 points.  I see this being a close game because of their ability to score points against good defenses.  Dalvin Cook will be the key and Michigan’s run defense has shown vulnerabilities this year.  Giving up more than 200 yards three times.  They gave up 164 in their loss against Iowa. 

The ACC is the stronger conference this year because of experience.  They have gone 4-1 against the Big Ten while going 7-3 against the SEC.  Florida State is 7 points away from being a 1 loss team.

South Alabama +435 2% play

The academies are vulnerable in bowl games typically when a team has extra time to prepare.  I have been impressed with South Alabama in this double digit dog role beating Miss State to open the season with extra time to prepare.  They also beat a very good San Diego State team 42-24 as a double digit dog.

The Sun Belt has gone 4-1 this bowl season compared with the Mountain West 3-3.  South Alabama also played tight games with the two top teams in Sun Belt losing 21-28 against Troy, and 7-17 agaisnt Arkansas State. 

Air Force has lost 4 of their last 5 bowl games. They lost against Wyoming as a 13.5 point favorite outright against New Mexico as a 14 point favorite outright, and to Hawaii as a 17 point favorite outright.  2 of those 3 games were at home.

North Carolina +8.5  w/ Tennessee -1 3.3% Teaser

North Carolina - Stanford’s offense has looked great over the last 5 games and why shouldn’t they?  They faced defenses ranked 90th, 105th, 124th, 126th, and 128th in run defense.  They faced teams ranked 87th, 71st, 113th, 120th, and 127th in yards per play allowed.  North Carolina’s defense comes in ranking 67th vs. the run and 46th in yards per play defense, but they have a better offense than all of those recent opponents that Stanford faced led by their star QB Mitch Tribusky who could be the #1 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft. 

Stanford has an excellent defense, but against good passing teams they give up yards and points.  Washington and Washington State have top 30 passing units and both put up 40+ points and were 5 for 6 in the red zone for TD’s.  That’s key here for North Carolina as I think they put up enough points to win this game.  Stanford really struggles against average defenses and now they won’t have their best player in Christian McCafrey who opts out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft which in my opinion is a lame move.

Conference update – PAC 12 – 0-3 ATS, ACC – 5-0 ATS.

Tennessee – Offensively 16 points per game on the road this year.  They are without their star WR and QB in this game in Westerkamp and Tommie Armstrong still nursing the hamstring.  If they do play Armstrong which they have said they won’t he won’t nearly be the threat he typically was.  Tennessee on the other hand has been really good in bowl games of late.  They really got banged up this year and Joshua Dobbs really is the better QB in this game.  He also has Alvin Kamara one of the under rated players in the SEC. This game is also in Nashville so we will see plenty of orange jerseys in the crowd. 

North Carolina +8.5  w/ Tennessee -1 3.3% Teaser

North Carolina - Stanford’s offense has looked great over the last 5 games and why shouldn’t they?  They faced defenses ranked 90th, 105th, 124th, 126th, and 128th in run defense.  They faced teams ranked 87th, 71st, 113th, 120th, and 127th in yards per play allowed.  North Carolina’s defense comes in ranking 67th vs. the run and 46th in yards per play defense, but they have a better offense than all of those recent opponents that Stanford faced led by their star QB Mitch Tribusky who could be the #1 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft. 

Stanford has an excellent defense, but against good passing teams they give up yards and points.  Washington and Washington State have top 30 passing units and both put up 40+ points and were 5 for 6 in the red zone for TD’s.  That’s key here for North Carolina as I think they put up enough points to win this game.  Stanford really struggles against average defenses and now they won’t have their best player in Christian McCafrey who opts out of the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft which in my opinion is a lame move.

Conference update – PAC 12 – 0-3 ATS, ACC – 5-0 ATS.

Tennessee – Offensively 16 points per game on the road this year.  They are without their star WR and QB in this game in Westerkamp and Tommie Armstrong still nursing the hamstring.  If they do play Armstrong which they have said they won’t he won’t nearly be the threat he typically was.  Tennessee on the other hand has been really good in bowl games of late.  They really got banged up this year and Joshua Dobbs really is the better QB in this game.  He also has Alvin Kamara one of the under rated players in the SEC. This game is also in Nashville so we will see plenty of orange jerseys in the crowd. 

Georgia pk 3.3%

TCU’s offense has struggled all year long and faced an average opponent ranked 83rd in yards per play defense.  Here they face their first top 50 defense here and this is an offense led by Kenny Hill who struggled vs. SEC defenses before leaving Texas A&M and taking a year out.  This is a guy who was pulled from games this year who is coached by “co-offensive coordinators.”  I’ve never liked a team that decides to have two guys doing one job even if you split up the responsibilities who is the leader come game day? 

Georgia’s defense ranks 14th holding opponents 83.3 yards per game under their season average.  TCU’s offense is extremely predictable this year.  They run the air raid, but their leading receiver is a running back in Kyle Hicks.  I believe Georgia will be able to come up with a scheme to stop that.

TCU went winless vs. top 4 teams in the Big 12 and at least Georgia had some bright spots throughout the year.  They have the better QB in this match up and their pair of running backs are healthy which a big key here is because I think they will be able to run the ball against TCU’s defense.  TCU’s defense gave up 21 rushing TD’s this year and 4.11 ypc which is high compared to recent TCU defenses.

Typically I would back Gary Patterson in a scenario like this.  TCU is great off extra rest or a bye and 8-2 in their last 10 bowls, but this season has been something different for this team.  The defense played well at times, but was inconsistent.  Looking at the quotes and I just don’t see this team being too excited.  Meanwhile Georgia is getting both RB’s back for 2017 and would love to beat TCU to head into 2017 with a ton of excitement. The talent level is just higher with Georgia.  The SEC was 3-0 last year in bowl games vs. the Big 12 winning by 22, 28, and 29.  The talent difference between these conferences has only gotten worse. 

Colorado -3 2.2% play

I will take the Buffaloes here despite them beign without their star defensive coordinator in Jim Leavitt who is moving onto Oregon.  I still think they are the better team and faced the tougher schedule this year.  The PAC 12 went 3-0 vs. the Big 12 this year with an average margin of victory of 11 points.

Let’s talk defense.  Colorado ranks 11th overall in yards per play allowed having faced a tough group of offenses ranking 48.5 in ypp.  Oklahoma State faced a similar strength of schedule 46.36 and ranked 90th.  I will take the better defense in this match up especially since the strength of this Colorado defense is the pass rush and pass defense.  Oklahoma State’s offensive strength is the pass game, but they have faced an average pass defense ranking 80th an average overall defense ranked 74th.  Colorado ranks 4th vs. the pass and is the best defense Mason Rudolph and company will face.

Colorado’s offense ranks 78th, but they have faced two top 5 units and an average 57th ranked YPP defense.  I think they will be able to move the ball against Oklahoma State.  The key is the running game with their QB Liufau.  In their 3 losses he had a total of 19 yards rushing, and Oklahoma State has had a ton of issues defending mobile QB’s.  Baylor’s Seth Russel ran for 65, Iowa State’s Joel Lanning 67, Kansas State’s Jesse Ertz 153, and TCU’s Kenny Hill 79 yards.  I’ll back the senior QB who didn’t think he was healthy enough to play this year in his final game as I expect Colorado to win this one by a TD or more.

Arkansas +7 4.4% play

I have mentioned several times I like backing ACC teams the best this bowl season and so far they have delivered going 3-0 SU and ATS.  This is one game I will look to fade, because we have a under rated Arkansas team as a TD underdog.  Virginia Tech though they’d get a better bowl having won their ACC division and losing by just 7 to Clemson in their bowl game, but they don’t.

Arkansas defense has been dreadful this year, but I really factor in the fact that they have played offences ranked an average 45 in yards per play.  Here they play #58, and they are well rested.  This team had a brutal stretch and injuries and players were banged up, but here they should be 100% and get their leading tackler back in Greenlaw who went out in the Alabama game.  Virginia Tech’s offense will pose a threat here with Jerrod Evans at QB having a great season, but when you really look at it the faced an average defense ranked 70th in YPP defense.

Arkansas offense should have success and in order to do so they must protect their QB Austin Allen and run the football.  Allen has dynamic receivers when given time this offense can score, but the problem is he faced some of the best defenses in the nation including 3 top 10 units.  He faced teams with a pass rush ranked 4th, 10th, 15th, 16th, 24th, and 32nd, but here he faced 59th.  Virginia Tech not as strong this year in pass rush and they lose a guy on the DE in Vinny Mihota that they have to replace.  They lack a natural pass rusher.  I give an edge to Arkansas offensive line not having to face a Myles Garret, Jonathan Allen or Arden Key is a big deal.

Virginia Tech’s defense was solid this year, but they lacked the pass rush and they are vulnerable against the run.  They had a 4 game span where they allowed 5 ypc in each game.  I think Virginia Tech will do a good job early of stopping the run, but I can see Virginia Tech coming out trying to loosen this defense up with their passing game which I think will be effective.   Overall I give Arkansas a shot to win this game so grabbing this as a TD is good value! 

South Carolina +10 5.5% POD

I like the Gamecocks and not just because they are out of the SEC.  They have won their last 4 bowls, and are 4-0 vs. the American Athletic Conference the last 4 years and I think they come into this game in the right situation.  Let’s touch on the conferences first though because it is important to note that the SEC has depth and we are getting double digit spread here with a South Carolina team that has a lot of young talent and showed progressions at the end of the season.  The AAC is 1-4 in bowl games so far and 7-16 over the first 4 years now.  Meanwhile the SEC went 9-2 last year and is 1-1 this year so far.

South Carolina’s offense can stay on the field for them in this game.  This running game go tgoing late in the season when Jake Bentley took over at QB.  The offense went up by 64 yards per game, 10.5 points per game, and less turnovers.  The running game led by two freshman in Dowdle and Turner are both freshman.  They have one of the best WR in the SEC when healthy in Deebo Samuel and he will be for this game.  This team averages 4.65 ypc in wins and 2.53 in losses.  When they can stay on the field their defense also plays better and that’s what I predict for them in this game.  South Florida is among the worst run defenses in the nation and 120th in overall defense.  Bentley throwing the ball, and Dowdle running the ball will be a winning combination here.

South Florida comes into this game with a potent offense that could score enough to cover this high spread, but I believe South Carolina will shorten this game.  South Florida also already announced the new coach after Willie Taggart left.  We have seen bad results with that scenario this bowl season with Temple and Houston winning as favorites.  South Florida’s offensive coordinator will coach this game, but Charlie Strong is waiting to take this program over and I don’t know how much motivation he will have here.  We saw similar results last year with the SEC Auburn team defeating Memphis out the of the American in this very bowl game last year 31-10 after Justin Fuente jumped ship from Memphis.  I don’t know if I feel confident that South Carolina will win this one, but I do like them to cover the spread.

Miami -2.5 5.5% POD

I’m backing the ACC team in Miami.  There is a clue in this line with West Virginia having 10-2 record out of the Big 12 with their only loses being against two top 10 teams, but yet they are under dogs.  Dana Holgorson already expressed his disappointment with being in this bowl game despite a 10-2 record and I’m also not really respecting the Big 12.

Miami was banged up all year long in key games on the offensive line and QB Brad Kaaya had some injury issues that he fought through so I think you see the best version of Miami in this game.  West Virginia lost to those two top 10 teams by 17 and 28 points and I’m not even so sure that Oklahoma State would beat a healthy Miami team.

Miami has faced a tougher schedule.  Their 19th ranked defense from a yards per play perspective played an average 51 YPP ranking and they finished 27th holding opponents 56.6 yards under their season average.  Meanwhile West Virginia’s defense also faced an average opponent ranking 51st in YPP and they finished 53rd in yards per play allowed.  On paper the offense for West Virginia is slightly better, but they faced a far weaker schedule and Miami’s offensive line was really banged up at times this year.

Keys to the game are going to start in the trenches and Miami just has massive advantages here.  They have 99 tackles for loss compared to just 52 for West Virginia’s defensive line.  I really think this is the best defense West Virginia has faced all year as they are 11th in front 7 havoc rate and I think Skyler Howard is going to be pressured into making mistakes.  On the flip side Miami has turned the ball over just 10 times all eyar behind an experienced QB in Kaaya who should have a balanced attack ahead of him.  Miami’s rushing offense has 5.97 ypc in wins and 2.04 in losses with 22 TD’s in the wins and 2 TD’s in the losses. 

West Virginia’s run defense is not exactly great.  We mentioned they were 52nd in tackles for loss.  Their front 7 havoc rate is 128th, but a lot of people are calling this a dominant defense which I don’t agree with.  Kansas who is ranked 113th in rushing ran for 150, and Iowa State ranked 69th ran for nearly 200 at a 5.59 ypc clip.  All 4 of their final opponents ran for over 4 yards per carry and that bodes well for Miami.  Miami’s run defense in case you were curious has been extremely dominant.  They have allowed only 8 rushing TD’s all year.  That’s going to be a huge issue because I certainly don’t trust Skyler Howard to win this game on his own.

Pittsburgh -4.5 3.3% play

I like Pitt here to win by double digits in this game.  This is another example of me liking the ACC over the Big Ten.  ACC is 4-1 this year against the Big Ten including Pitt’s win over Penn State.  Pitt has had a fabulous season when you consider they beat the ACC Champion and the Big Ten Champion.  That’s simply amazing and they played some close games against Oklahoma State, North Carolina all good teams.  When Northwestern stepped it up in competition they went 1-4.  Their only win against an Iowa team that has no offense and their 4 losses were by an average of 11 points per game.

Pittsburgh has an elite offense that can beat you with the pass and the running game behind leader John Conner.  Their QB Nathan Peterman is extremely explosive with 9 yards per attempt while throwing for 26 TD’s and only 6 interceptions.  Northwestern’s defense which ranks higher than Pitt has some vulnerabilities that fit well here.  They tend to wear down late in a game against physical teams (see Minnesota and Wisconsin), and they give up big plays.  Pitt is 22nd in the nation in explosiveness.

Northwestern’s QB Clayton Thorsown will have some success, but I think they will struggle in the red zone without much out of their running game.  Pitt is extremely stout up front and they have a considerable advantage in this game in the trenches.  Pitt’s sack leader Ejuan Price should play a big factor in this game and is the reason why they are +30 in sacks compared to -9 for Northwestern.  They are also +21 in tackles for loss compared to Northwestern so a huge advantage in the trenches.  Northwestern has not faced a team that can beat you with the pass and run and I would argue this is the best offense they have faced all year and I feel confidence they will lose this game big. 

Minnesota +10 5.5% POD

These are two contrasting styles in two contrasting conferences, but I like the Big Ten a little bit better.  They went 5-3 against the PAC 12 last year and 3-1 this year so far.  Minnesota is getting extra points here because of the suspensions and the fact that they are in the secondary, but I believe that has just given us value in the line.  This secondary still has 2 future NFL players in Damarius Travis and Jalen Myrick and I have to believe that MInnesota has some depth and the young players will be more excited to play and showcase their talent.

Minnesota will have to stop or slow down the air raid offense and I think they have the ingredients to do so.  Minnesota is 30th in sack %, and 14th in front 7 havoc rate.  They had +32 tackles for loss on the season compared with their offense and they are +19 in sacks while Washington State is -9 in sacks.  Washington State only faced 3 teams in the top 50 in sack % and they went 1-2 against those teams.  I believe Minnesota should be able to shorten this game as well with their offense. 

Washington State did a good job against the run all year and they will have another chance against Minnesota who is going to run the ball 60% of the time, but if they aren't careful I think they could get burned here for being over aggressive early in this game by stacking the box.  Mitch Leidner did not have a good season at QB for Minnesota, but he's a senior who has played in 3 bowl games and has played well in each of those games with 4 passing TD's to 1 interception.  I think Leidner will give his team a shot to win.  The running game should be able to control the offense with their size.  It's not every day that Washington State sees an offense like this and I think both defenses will struggle at times.  In the end I'll back Minnesota I think their head coach has done a fantastic job and the distractions of the suspensions have given us some extra line value here. 

Wake Forest +350 2.5% Play

I mentioned several times I was heavily leaning towards the ACC in bowl games.  I think the conference is really under rated this year.  Wake Forest has several things I like going into this bowl game, but the two key things to mention for both of these teams going into this game following the regular season.  Temple, loses their head coach Matt Rhule who left for Baylor. Their interim coach Ed Foley is not going to be the head coach so he’s not really preparing or coaching for anything here as Geoff Collins, the Florida defensive coordinator will take over.  On the other hand Wake Forest, we found out had their game plans leaked to opposing teams by their radio analyst.  This is their first game post – Wakeleaks.  Specifically in the Louisville game, a game they actually led 12-10 on the road going into the 4th quarter.

Wake Forest offense has struggled there is no doubt about it, but they faced 8 top 50 units this year and will face another one in Temple.  Thus the total for this game is very low at 40 points giving us more value for betting on the double digit dog who I feel can pull the upset.  Temple is the AAC Championship and I would think is not quite excited about a bowl game against one of the worst ACC teams in Wake Forest.  The AAC is 1-4 in bowl games so far and did not do well last year either going 2-6.

Wake Forest has the defense to shut down Temple.  In their wins they allowed 3 yards per carry and in their losses 4.84.  That’s the key to stopping Temple who has 5 ypc in wins and 2.44 in their 3 losses.  Wake Forest has held every team under 4 yards per carry this season with the exception of Clemson, Louisville who have the most dynamic QB’s in the country along with a random road game at NC State. Wake Forest ranks 18th in front 7 havoc rate and they are +8 in turnover margin on the year which is better than Temple.  Overall I believe they should be in this game with a shot to win at the end. 

Army -10 3.3% play

Army was 17.5 point favorite when these two met during the regular season and lost 35-18.  That gives us some value on the side of Army as a 10.5 point favorite.  North Texas has lost all of their games by 14 or more points this season and are lucky to be in a bowl game with a 5-7 record. 

So what went wrong in that game against North Texas for Army?  It was their sloppiest game in recent years.  They had 7 turnovers which included 4 interceptions.  That’s tough to do for a team that doesn’t throw the ball.  Army also committed 9 penalties in this game and I don’t see that happening again.  This Army team has a little time to prepare and will have revenge on their mind.  As long as they get up early in this game I see no reason why they shouldn’t run away with the game.

North Texas is terrible vs. the run allowing well over 5 yards per carry.  They allowed 9.60 yards per carry in their last game alone.  Army ran for 302 yards in the last meeting, but the turnovers killed drives.  Army’s defense is much better and I see them dominating this game even if it’s in Texas I think they will actually have a slight advantage in the stands.  Texas a big military state and they typically have a ton of Army fans at games when Army comes to town.

Army beat Texas El Paso on the road this year 66-14.  This is their final game of an emotional season where they beat Navy, and have been playing for a fallen teammate, Brandon Jackson.  Army is going to win this by 14+.

Vanderbilt +6 2.2% play

I think there is too much value here on Vanderbilt out of the SEC.  Despite the ACC dominating the SEC This year and I have praised the ACC this is one match up I don't think they should be almost a TD favorite in.  NC State got waxed last year against the SEC in the Belk Bowl and they are 3-6 vs. the SEC the last 3 years in post season play.

Vanderbilt really came on strong down the stretch, but overall they had been in a lot of games and they have several big wins on the season against bowl teams.  South Carolina, Western Kentucky, Georgia, and a hot Tennessee team.  Time off usually hurts a team, but I think they have found some confidence in the QB that they can ride.  Overall NC State seems to be stronger in the trenches, but Vanderbilt makes up for that having in my opinion the best linebacker in college football Zach Cunningham.

That has led to the #1 overall red zone defense.  NC State is just too inconsistent they don't run the ball as well as Vanderbilt does even though it will be an intriguing match up of running backs.  I'm predicting it's Kyle Shurmur who helps get a victory for his team.  Over the last 5 games this team was averaging +11 points per game and +187 yards per game compared to their first 7 games. 

Boston College +2.5 5.5% POD

First of all I look at the ACC, and I feel they are an under rated conference from top to bottom.  ACC is the most experienced conference of the power 5 going into the year, and I really think there are some solid teams throughout.  The Big Ten lost a lot of talent last year and were among the inexperienced teams and have a lot of bottom feeders.  ACC went 3-1 vs. the Big Ten.  Meanwhile comparing what the ACC did against the MAC, Sun Belt, Conference USA, and AAC they did better in 3 of the 4 conferences from a record and point differential perspective.

To me these are two similar offenses that have struggled this year.  Maryland was without their QB at times and that’s why they struggled a ton, but even with Perry Hillis this team when they step up in competition do not play well.  In fact they beat 1 bowl team all year long.  That was Central Florida out of the AAC.  Really they were lucky to win that game because they were +4 in turnover margin.  That was 40% of the turnovers Maryland forced all year.  Central Florida got waxed in their bowl as favorites against a Sun Belt team.  That win looks even worse.  Maryland will face a top 50 defense in Boston College here today and they are 1-6 this year against such foes.

Boston College plays in a tougher conference and when they weren’t playing the top teams in their conference they were in every game.  I really think they have an edge in the trenches and this is exactly the type of matchup they win.  Maryland on the other hand we saw them lost big at home against Minnesota 31-10.  Granted Minnesota’s offense is probably a little more capable, but they are very similar to Boston College in a lot of ways.  BC was +7 in tackles for loss with 92, and +16 in sacks with 39 led by Harold Landry.  Maryland was -16 and -8.  They allowed 94 tackles for loss and 41 sacks.  Boston College is one of the best run defenses in the nation ranking 11th in yards per carry allowed.  That does not bode well for Maryland who can’t protect their QB.  I just don’t see how Maryland can score enough points in this game.  Boston College is 9th in the nation holding opponents 95.6 yards under their season average.  Maryland comes in 105th which should help Boston’s offense.

BC should be able to have balance here with a running game and Patrick Towles connecting on short plays which gives me confidence backing them.  Towles and this passing offence in wins has 9TD to 2 INT’s with a QB rating 58 points higher than their losses.  Since Maryland only forced 6 turnovers outside the UCF game while BC has forced 23.  I give a strong edge towards BC winning the turnover battle as well.  BC also has the better special teams.  So let’s highlight.  BC should have the edge in the trenches, the turnover battle, and they play in a tougher conference and had a tougher schedule. 

MTSU -7 3.3% PLAY 

Middle Tennessee playing out of Conference USA which has dominated bowl games this season and seasons past.  Conference USA is 4-1 this bowl season with their only loss being an ATS cover as UTSA lost by just 3 at New Mexico.  I like MTSU and I'm not really worried about the travel spot and the warm weather.  I like what I am hearing from players and coaches referring to this game as a business trip.  They also went to the Bahamas Bowl game last year and lost so I am sure they learned something from that experience.  In the end I don't know that it matters, because Middle Tennessee has by far the best player on the field in Mississippi transfer I'Tavius Mathers who is an absolute beast and gives this offense a balanced dynamic.  Mathers 1504 yards rushing 16 TD's at a 6.84 ypc clip and he's also got nearly 600 yards receiving.

This MTSU team will get their QB back in Brent Stockstill who missed the last 3.5 games after he got hurt against UTSA and this team actually comes into this game with a little bit of value because they are so much better with him.  This team lost by 1 to Western Kentucky.  They beat Missouri, they beat Louisiana Tech, and they should have beaten Vanderbilt before a lengthy rain delay really hurt them.

Hawaii is not all bad to be perfectly honest this team will benefit from having the time off, but playing on Christmas Eve at home is not always the easiest.  I expect Hawaii to have some success but for Middle Tennessee to make adjustments and force this team into third and longs where they are not successful.  Expect big plays from Middle Tennessee's offense and a lot of points. Hawaii has played 6 top 50 offenses (MTSU IS 10TH) in yards per play and have allowed an average of 49.33 points per game.  That actually sets up a final score of 49-23 according to the total, but I expect more of a 45-31 final.  I see no reason to back Hawaii here and the play of Mathers and return of Stockstill accompanied by this team's experience playing the in a tropical location a year ago gives me a ton of confidence backing them. 

Troy/Ohio Under 50 2.2% play 

Dollar General Bowl will be played in Mobile Alabama.  Small edge to Troy, but that’s incorporated in the spread for this game.  I actually feel confident in the under in this game.  Both teams are led by their defense and are top 30 in yards per play allowed.  Ohio has faced slightly stronger offenses than Troy on the year, but overall I would say both defenses are excellent and they are both going up against offenses that don’t have big play capability.  Troy 75th in big play offense while Ohio is 103rd.  Both defenses will create third and longs and are very strong in the red zone.

Troy’s run defense allowing just 3.44 ypc, while Ohio run defense allowing 2.96 ypc.  Troy has a net of 28 tackles for loss and +20 sacks while Ohio has +19 tackles for loss and +26 sacks.  Both defenses holding opponents under their season average in yards, Ohio ranking 42nd, and Troy 47th.  Ohio did not play a lot of strong defenses this year and hwen they did they averaged 15.5 points.  Meanwhile Troy who faced 4 top 30 defenses averaged 21.5.  I give the coaching edge to Frank Solich who has been around a long time and usually plays his best games as a dog.  Ohio’s defense held Tennessee and Western Michigan to some of their season lows in points.  They are a bend but not break defense allowing just 45% touch down rate.

The under is 35-16-2 in Ohio’s last 53 games overall and the under is 6-2-1 in Troy’s last 9 games overall.  Now these two conferences traditionally play high scoring games, but I think we are getting some value on the total because of it.  Troy also played at Ladd-Peebles Stadium already this season against South Alabama a defense ranked 71st in yards per play allowed.  They ended up scoring 28 points, but had only 13 points entering the 4th quarter. Ohio seems to have a weakness against the pass, but they also seem to step up against the high quality opponents like Western Mich, Tennessess, Miami Ohio, and Toledo keeping all 4 of those teams below their season average for points (average of 10points below) and they played well enough defensively against the pass to be in each of those games. I’ll predict a final score of 24-17.

LA Tech -6.5 2.2% / Over 67.5 4.4% POD

Navy, has one of their worst defenses in a long time.  They rank 109th in yards per play allowed.  Meanwhile LA Tech comes in at 56th and has strengths on the run defense.  Navy of course breaking in a new QB and while I think he’s not as bad as this line movement we have seen I do think LA Tech’s offense is going to have too much punch in this game because they can do it in the air and on the ground.

Navy’s QB Zach Abey will be just fine and he actually settled into the Army game where he led them back in the second half despite all the mistakes they made.  I actually think Abey is a better runner than Will Worth and it shows in the short term, but overall Navy is going to have a hard time keeping pace in this one with one of the best offenses in the nation.  Ryan Higgins has 37 passing TD’s to just 8 interceptions and this offense is very explosive and Navy is 105th in the nation in explosive plays allowed.  Another thing to like about the total is neither team is good in the red zone allowing over 70% TD rates.  Navy has big #’s with 91.3% TD rate allowed over their last 4 games.  Now they face one of the best offenses in the nation with limited preparation time having to play in the AAC Championship, then the Arm/Navy game.  

LA Tech -6.5 2.2% / Over 67.5 4.4% POD

Navy, has one of their worst defenses in a long time.  They rank 109th in yards per play allowed.  Meanwhile LA Tech comes in at 56th and has strengths on the run defense.  Navy of course breaking in a new QB and while I think he’s not as bad as this line movement we have seen I do think LA Tech’s offense is going to have too much punch in this game because they can do it in the air and on the ground.

Navy’s QB Zach Abey will be just fine and he actually settled into the Army game where he led them back in the second half despite all the mistakes they made.  I actually think Abey is a better runner than Will Worth and it shows in the short term, but overall Navy is going to have a hard time keeping pace in this one with one of the best offenses in the nation.  Ryan Higgins has 37 passing TD’s to just 8 interceptions and this offense is very explosive and Navy is 105th in the nation in explosive plays allowed.  Another thing to like about the total is neither team is good in the red zone allowing over 70% TD rates.  Navy has big #’s with 91.3% TD rate allowed over their last 4 games.  Now they face one of the best offenses in the nation with limited preparation time having to play in the AAC Championship, then the Arm/Navy game.  

Wyoming +10 3.3% play

I like the dog here as Wyoming had a fantastic season and it could go down as their best ever with a win over BYU in the Poinsettia Bowl.  This is an old rivalry from the time these teams shared the WAC and Mountain West together.

Wyoming has a very good QB in Josh Allen and a tremendous RB in Brian Hill who will be playing on Sunday’s.  Allen can make mistakes which is a concern in this game, but he can also make plays with his feet and strong arm that should keep his team in the game.

BYU meanwhile is without their senior leader Tasom Hill who ended the year with another injury.  Tanner Mangum is a better passer than Hill so that could open things up a bit, but I see them starting conservative.  He started last year’s bowl game off with two pick sixes.  BYU has lost their last 3 bowl games and have been off for quite a while.  Meanwhile Wyoming played in meaningful football against San Diego State just two weeks ago.

BYU is a huge favorite mostly because of their schedule with opponents in the Big 10, Pac 12, Big 12, but when you really look at it BYU got lucky this year.  Only 5 bowl opponents and they went 2-3 against those.  Both wins were at home by 2 and 7 points and one was against a 5-7 Mississippi State team that is in a bowl game.  All the other opponents were a disappointment.  Wyoming faced 9 bowl opponents and really were in every game.  I think their run defense struggled down the stretch which is to be expected, but I think they have regrouped with a little extra time off and they will have their hands full against Jamal Williams.

At the end of the day I think Wyoming can actually win the turnover battle.  Both teams have turned the ball over this year, but we have seen it in the past with Mangum and Wyoming has forced 25 turnovers on the year.  This is a lot of points for a bowl game and Wyoming has to be excited to be here after winning two games last year.  They beat Boise State, BYU lost to Boise if that makes you feel confident about Wyoming’s chances in this game tonight. 

Western Kentucky -6.5 3.3% play 

I like the Hilltoppers in what should be a very high scoring and exciting game here tonight.  This one is taking place in Florida and should be high scoring.  WK's head coach Jeff Brohm moved onto Purdue, but I don't see it impacting this team like Houston's move with Tom Herman.  A defensive coordinator takes over in the interim and I expect Western Kentucky to try to control this game on the ground with their senior stud Anthony Wales.  Western Kentucky also has the better QB in Mike White who was lucky enough to be throwing to two future NFL receivers in Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris. 

The fact is these teams are very similar in a lot of ways.  Both have top 10 special teams, both have top 30 offenses, and two top 25 QB's.  Western Kentucky however seems to be able to control the trenches better as they are +28 tackles for loss on the season compared to Memphis who is -20. They are +13 sacks on the season compared to Memphis who is -13.  That's a huge advantage and Western Kentucky holding opponents to nearly 3 yards per carry can force Memphis into some long third down plays.  Memphis is allowing nearly 5 yards per carry and have to go up against a better running team.

Memphis can claim the better passing defense, but there were 4 games this season where they faced a high rated passing attack and they gave up 44, 49, 48, and 59 points. Memphis has a shot if they are +2 or +3 TO's in this one, but Mike White has just 6 interceptions all year.  As I mentioned he's throwing to two future NFL receivers, and a senior RB in Wales who wants to go out and get this team to 11 wins.  I predict they will. 

Central Michigan +14 2.2% play

The American Athletic has not been very good in bowl games going 6-14 which includes 0-2 this year with Houston and Central Florida not even coming close.  I’d like to follow that trend with Tulsa being a huge favorite.  Once I saw them tick up to 14 points I grabbed Central Michigan.

The Chippewas aren’t getting a lot of credit here despite having a win over a top 15 program this year.  Albeit being a bit controversial they still went to Oklahoma State and won as huge under dogs and held that team to 50 rushing yards which will be a key for them against Tulsa’s offense.  The other thing about Central Michigan is they have been devastated by injuries all year long and this is probably the healthiest they have been in quite some time which should help. I like the fact that Central Michigan is led by a senior QB in Cooper Rush who has played well in bowl games before and is the active leader in passing yards in the nation.  I expect him to have a great game against a defense that gives up a lot of yards.

Tulsa really has not beaten anyone and their defense is a reliability. Central Michigan also has only given up 14 rushing TDs and can be tough to score on in the red zone.  I do expect this game to be close.  Tulsa is getting a lot of love for their offense, but I would lean towards Central Michigan’s defense and they have a QB that can score quickly and score late for a potential upset or back door cover.  Central Michigan is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference match ups and I expect them to be competitive here in Miami. 

Lafayette/Southern Miss Over 58.5 points 2.2% play

I like the over here you have a Lafayette team playing in their home state in the New Orleans Bowl.  They have struggled this year and their offense has struggled, but going up against a bad defense in Southern Miss I think they should be able to run the ball a bit and when they are able to do that they typically put up 27 or 30 points.  Meanwhile Southern Miss offensively can’t be stopped and Lafayette really has not played a ton of good offenses this year.  Southern Miss had a few games without Nick Mullens their senior QB so I expect them to put up 35 points or more in this game.  Perfect weather being that this game is in a dome and I love that you have 2 senior QB’s going at it.  Anthony Jennings on Lafayette side is a Louisiana kid played at LSU for a couple years. 

Houston -4 2.2% play

I like Houston in this matchup despite losing their head coach.  Houston has named Todd Orlando their new coach and he was previously the defensive coordinator.  That’s good news considering Houston was a defensive team led by their 5 star defensive lineman Ed Oliver.  This game should be the most interesting on Saturday, and I really like Houston to win this by double digits.

First of all San Diego State was held under 200 yards rushing this year 4 times and went 1-3.  Donnel Pumphrey has a ton of pressure to break Ron Dayne’s rushing record and I don’t see him doing it against Houston’s run defense.  Houston has allowed just one opponent over 200 yards rushing all year and that was Navy who runs the triple option.  Houston does not have to worry about a passing game as San Diego State is entirely one dimensional.  Looking back further since Donnel Pumphrey arrived back in 2013, San Diego State has gone 7-17 when rushing for fewer than 200 yards. 

Houston has also had a much tougher schedule with Louisville and Oklahoma in non-conference play two teams they beat easily.  I see them being up for this game with their new coach already focused and without the interim tag.  San Diego State is a nice team, but the Mountain West was down this year and this team just doesn’t do well out of conference play going 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 tries.  Meanwhile Houston has gone 16-5 ATS in their last 21.  If Houston does not cover it’s because they turn the ball over, but I expect Greg Ward Jr. in his final game to put up some big numbers.  After all San Diego State has allowed a ton of points of late, 40.33 over their last 3 per game.

UTSA +7.5 4.4% POD

This is essentially a home game for New Mexico, but I like the match up and think Texas San Antonio out of Conference USA is a solid bet when you look at the situation and they are going to be very excited to be playing in their first bowl game.  New Mexico is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Conference USA and even though the Mountain West has a 33-25 record vs. Conference USA that gap has really closed with a 12-12 record since 2010.  Take out Boise State’s games and they are 12-9 vs. the Mountain West.

Texas San Antonio clearly had the stronger schedule this year as they faced Texas A&M and Arizona State out of conference while New Mexico faced Rutgers.  It doesn’t stop there though as UTSA faced 7 teams with top 50 yards per play offenses or defenses compared to 4 top 50 YPP opponents for New Mexico.  New Mexico’s defense is huge concern ranked 108th in yards per play defense and they have faced opponents with weak offenses all year.  An average 71 ypp opponent.  Over their last 4 games their rushing defense has really struggled allowing over 6 yards per carry and 13 rushing yards.  I think they will give up some points in this one.  Considering UTSA average 4.67 ypc in their wins vs. 2.91 in their losses that will be the key in this game.

New Mexico’s pass defense however also not the strongest and UTSA’s passing attack is capable with 24 TD’s and only 7 interceptions.  The match up I like the best is the fact that UTSA defensive strength is against the run.  Their 68th ranking from a YPP perspective does not blow you away, but they have faced many top offenses this year, 5 in the top 50 and 3 in the top 25 + Texas A&M.  They’ll face New Mexico and that option attack, but this run stop unit has some extra time to prepare and it’s easy to predict what New Mexico will do.

I like the advantage UTSA has in red zone defense which will be a key in a close game.  I feel like the Road Runners will have a shot to pull the upset on the road and getting 7.5 points I’m confident.  Conference USA has been really strong in bowl the last 5 years really going 18-8.  Meanwhile the Mountain West has struggled a bit going 13-18.

Army +225 5.5% NCAAF POD

It's finally time for Army to win this game.  This is there best shot for a few different reasons.  The last two years they have come close and have had chance to win, but this year I think they finally get it done.

Navy was busy playing in a conference championship last week.  Something they have never had to do the week before the Army Navy game.  They lost the game to Temple as I played Temple on the money line.  Not only did they lose, but the loss was very costly.  They lose their QB Will Worth who is out for the season.  Worth took over for Tago Smith and was a senior.  Now Navy turns to a sophomore in Zach Abey.  That can't be good for a team that is used to having experience. 

Meanwhile Army has been licking their chops for this game.  This is Army's best team in probably 20 years.  This is a team that beat Temple 28-13 in the beginning of the year. Since 2011 Army has been -9 in turnover margin in the Navy/Army game and it has cost them winning the game at least two times as singificant under dogs.  I think they can win the turnover battle in this one with an experienced QB on Navy side and under a week to prepare it's just too much to ask for.  Navy also not forcing nearly as many turnovers as they have in years past as they have only had 13 this year (27 last year).  Their run defense giving up 4.77 yards per carry on the season compared to 3.88 for Army.  Army held them under 200 yards last year and I think they will be even better this year.

Penn State +3.5 -115 5% NCAAF POD – buy ½ if need be.

There are several questions in this game for Penn State, but it all comes down to their ability to stop Wisconsin’s running game in my opinion.  That’s something they have done extremely well since they got healthy at linebacker.  Wisconsin really does not pose a threat in the passing game with their 2 QB system so it’s all on their running game and defense and I like the match up for Penn State here.  Since Jason Cabinda, Penn State’s linebacker came back this has been a shutdown defense.  In their last 5 games they have held opponents under 2.70 yards per carry 3 of which they held under 2 yards per carry.  We all know when Wisconsin can’t run the ball they struggle to win games.

Penn State simply cannot turn the ball over in this game and they are +9 in turnover margin in their last 8 games.  That’s the biggest story of this game.  If they do not turn the ball over they win this game.  I really like what McSorley has done at QB for Penn State.  He has the ability and skilled receivers to test Wisconsin’s defense deep which in reality opens up the running game a little bit even against Wisconsin.  Mcsorley also can use his feet to pick up third downs which is an area of weakness for Wisconsin at least in their game against Ohio State and in the red zone against Nebraska. 

Penn State has to get off the field on third down to keep their defense fresh in this game.  I see a field goal game either way and I love the edge Penn State has in special teams compared to Wisconsin who have struggled at times and rank 69th in special teams.  This is also the best offense that Wisconsin has faced all year as Penn State actually ranks 22nd in yards per play compared to 40th for Ohio State.  I just love the momentum this team has right now and the defense has enough veteran leadership to keep the game close and I like the edge Penn State has at QB with McSorley. 

Virginia Tech +10.5 3.3% play

Clemson has had many close games this year.  All of them have something in common.  They struggled to run the ball with less than 4 yards per carry in all 5 close games decided by a TD or less.  Pittsburgh, Florida State, NC State, Troy, and Auburn.  Virginia Tech has a solid defense overall they are very balanced and have the opportunity to stop an average rushing offense.

That’s not the only reason I’m leaning towards the Hokies today.  Clemson has given up a ton of points to teams who can pass the ball.  Virginia Tech ranks 13th in QB rating and 36th in passing yards behind the excellent play of an experience QB in Jerrod Evans.  Three other games vs. a team that can pass the ball like Virginia Tech and this Clemson defense gave up 43, 34, and 36 points.  So I think this should be a relatively high scoring game that will be in doubt in the third quarter.  I think Virginia Tech could pull a shocker as Clemson has a ton of pressure in this game.  If you remember last year they struggled with North Carolina.  I think Virginia Tech is a big wild card in this game because they do everything well including special teams.  As long as they are not turning the ball over they could win this game.  In their loss against Tennessee earlier in the year they were -4 TO margin and I thought they should have won that game.  They were -3 against Georgia Tech and -1 vs. Syracuse.  That’s the one thing Clemson has also struggled with is the turnovers as they have had 23 turnovers on the year 1 more than Virginia Tech whose struggles have mostly been on fumbles and bad luck recovering them.

San Diego State / Wyoming Under 59.5 3.3% play

I like San Diego State and Wyoming to go under the total here.  First of all it’s 6.5 points nearly a TD higher than their first meeting and we have much worse weather this time around with temperatures in the teens and 15-30 mph winds.  I don’t see any of these two teams doing anything crazy and expect San Diego State to really try to shorten this game as they had just 54 plays last time around 3 weeks ago.

So the last time these two met it was a 34-33 victory for Wyoming.  I think QB Josh Allen was a huge part of that for Wyoming.  I expect San Diego State to make adjustments to contain Allen who broke off for 56 yards rushing and 288 yards passing on just 15 completions.  He was elusive and that’s something San Diego State can game plan for.  San Diego State’s offense won’t see any major changes in this one as I mentioned and their head coach even hinted at it as well stating, “If you have a lot of wind, it really increases the difficulty of the game, and makes it more likely of mistakes.”  This is a team that does not turn the ball over and won’t put their team in that position.

Lastly, these two teams have enjoyed very high scores the last few weeks which gives us value on the under in a conference championship game.  Tremendous value on the under here in this game as I expect San Diego State to win and cover with the under. 

Temple +130 3.5% play 

Navy is getting an overwhelming majority of the action right now based on what they have done their last two games putting up 66 points and 75 points.  They played two of the nation's worst defenses in SMU & East Carolina with nothing to play for now they step up to play the #7 defense from a yards per play perspective and they are #5 holding opponents on the season over 130 yards below their season average.  It's also worth noting that this is the 3rd time Temple is seeing the option attack.  Everyone will point to how they struggled against Army to open the season, but that was a long time ago and this defense was breaking in a lot of new guys. 

To stop Navy's offense you must create negative plays and who is better than Temple at doing so.  They rank #4 in front 7 havoc rate and have 95 tackles for loss led by Haason Reddick with 21.5 at DL.  This defense gave up 0 rushing TD's over their last 4 games and held Tulane to 118.  They have also held all 5 opponents they have faced on the road under their season PPG average.  I don't expect Temple to completely slow down a hot Navy squad, but  They are very good in the red zone and on third down on defense overall and even better on the road.  Everyone is talking about Navy's offense, but Navy's defense ranked 114th in yards per play allowed are going to have their hands full. 

Temple's offense has plenty of weapons and PJ Walker is an experienced QB who gets big plays as he's averaging 8.4 yards per attempt which is actually good for 15th in the county while Navy has allowed 23 TD's to 6 interceptions and 8.7 yards per pass attempts which ranks 120th in the county.  Not much Navy can do here considering Temple likes to run the ball first and use play action.  Navy struggles in run defense allowing 5 yards per carry in conference play.  Temple 4.98 ypc in their wins and 2.44 in their losses have two guys in the backfield in Thomas and Armstead to lead the way for a balanced attack.  At the end of the day both offenses should put up similar #'s and it's Temple's defense that is considerably better that I'm betting on here. 

Colorado +8 4.4% NCAAF POD

Statistically these two teams are pretty even, but Colorado has no doubt had a more challenging schedule in conference and out of conference.  Let’s start in conference play where their two most challenging games were @Stanford and @USC.  Washington got both of those games at home and also went 1-1.  In non-conference play Colorado played Colorado State #69 on neutral field, @Michigan #5 while Washington played Idaho #104, and Rutgers #112 at home.  That will certainly change the statistics a little bit and Colorado is right there in total yards, total passing and rushing yards and yards allowed.  There really is not much separating these two teams.  So let’s look at the match up.

Colorado is a blitz happy team ranking 19th in sack %.  Washington’s QB Jake Browning really is the story, but he had one atrocious game against USC, who has 50% of their sacks in the last 4 games as their defensive line really came alive down the stretch due to their line getting more action.  The only other team that Washington played with a solid front seven was Utah and Utah definitely gave them fits in their 31-24 victory.  Colorado is a better version of Utah and their secondary has two NFL Draft picks in Tedric Thompson and Chidobe Awuzie which should really frustrate Jake Browning who I think will make a mistake.  After all he is only a sophomore, and this is the #1 DB havoc rate in the country that he has to face.  Defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt has been the main reason Colorado has been resurgent and has forced a turnover in 25 straight games.

Colorado’s offense is also very under the radar in this match up and I think they will take it personally.  Having a senior QB in Sefo Liufau who can also run the ball is a huge advantage here.  This team had Michigan on the ropse before Liufau had to leave that game.  There is evidence that Washington will struggle against a team with a running QB.  They gave up 24 points to Utah with Troy Williams rushing for 30 yards on only 9 carries and Arizona scored 28 points with Brandon Dawkins rushing for 2 TD’s and 176 yards.  I think that’s going to be the story in this game is how Liufau plays and how Colorado’s defense can impact Browning.  I like both match ups for Colorado and obviously the last time Washington was in the top 4 they could not handle the pressure.

Much more pressure on Washington here and they need a win and I don’t know that they get it here. 

Ohio +18 2.2% play 

This is a ton of points when you consider that Ohio may just be the best defense that Western Michigan has faced all year.  Ohio’s defense is legit especially up front where they rank 6th in the country in havoc rate with 40 sacks and 90 total tackles for loss.  Western Michigan is facing a defense that can stop the run ranking #2 in yards per carry allowed and a defense that has held their last 9 opponents under their season points per game average.

Ohio will not be a sexy pick on Friday night, because of their last two games losing to Central Michigan and beating Akron 9-3, but they should get their senior QB back, and I like their ability to run the ball in this game and slow this game down.  In fact both teams like to run over 55% of the time and Ohio just matches up a little better in the trenches.  Don’t forget Ohio went on the road held Toledo to a season low in points and rushing yards in a victory as a 15 point favorite.  While Western Michigan dominated Toledo on the scoreboard last week it was much closer and Toledo ran all over Western Michigan for more than 7 yards per carry. 

Lastly, you have to factor in the intangible of pressure.  There is a ton of pressure on Western Michigan to win this game and get into the Cotton Bowl.  Also is PJ Fleck staying or is he going to jump to the Oregon job or another job?  Those are also big question marks that can be distractions.  At the end of the day we have seen how teams have done as big favorites in pressure spots and it has not been a winning formula ATS.

California +146 2.5% play –

This matchup is pretty even and when you look at it I have to question why UCLA is favored.  I typically lean towards the defense, but California is at home here and UCLA is off their big rivalry game against USC.  Both teams like to pass the ball a ton and it’s not a surprise that California does it much better and UCLA defends the pass much better, but UCLA is 0-3 vs. the 3 top 50 passing teams they faced.  California is not terrible running the ball like UCLA so that should benefit California here quite a bit who have had a brutal schedule against top running teams.  Now they face UCLA who is 127th in rushing the ball and their QB Fafaul has 11 TD’s to 10 interceptions in conference play.  Cal won’t have to score much in this game to get the win.

I think there is tremendous value on Cal here when you take a look at who they just got done playing.  Over their last 4 games they played 4 of the top 5 teams in the PAC 12 in USC, Washington, Washington State, and Stanford.  They beat Utah earlier in the year at home and also beat Oregon and Texas.  UCLA does not have any big wins like that on their schedule.

Finally, the biggest difference in this game is UCLA turns the ball over.  23 times all year with 13 in 5 road games.  California on the other hand have just 4 turnovers all season at home.  In a game that could be close I expect the turnover to give Cal a big win! 

Ohio State +1 with Michigan State +17.5 3.3% teaser

Ohio State +1 / Teaser

There are not many games where you could say Jim Harbough is not the best coach.  Urban Meyer arguably the best coach in the nation and I like the fact that he’s at home here and there is good weather on the way with no wind which has me leaning towards the over.  Meyer seems to get a little more aggressive with JT Barret when the weather is good and he naturally always has a good passing team.  I think Ohio State comes out aggressive in this game and they have the better players and are at home.  Meyer always a good big game head coach in college and it’s been well documented.  Meanwhile Harbough has come up short many times throughout his coaching career.  That’s not to say it can change, but I don’t see it changing in this situation. 

Overall these teams are very even on both sides of the ball in running, and passing and playing defense against both, but there are 3 things I like in Ohio State’s favor here and they are 3 big differences.  Coaching, QB, and home field advantage.  Those three will be the key and the difference in Ohio State winning this game big and possibly by double digits. 

Michigan State +17.5

All of the pressure is on Penn State here, and this is Michigan State’s bowl game.  They have been playing much better of late and have stepped up in the big games.  The defense is still not what it once was, but they are healthier than the past and they are led by Riley Bullough who should have his team pumpe dup to play Penn State.  Penn State has more injuries on the offensive line, and a banged up Saquon Barkley.  This is an inflated line in my opinion and Michigan State is 15-2 ATS as a dog over their last 17, which includes a 3-0 ATS mark this year.  I’m taking some extra points in this one althought I just think Penn State comes out super tight after they realize Ohio State wins and they have a shot to get to the Big Ten title game. 

Kentucky +26 4.4% NCAAF POD

This Kentucky offense is playing extremely well right now and that’s because their head coach is finally playing to the team’s strengths which are running the ball.  Last year they only ran the ball 50% of the time, and this year they are at 63% which has resulted in a lethal duo combination at RB and two 1,000 yard rushers.  I think they will have success here against Louisville who is in a major flat spot after their college football playoff dreams have been crushed.

Louisville also has played 1 team in the top 50 in rushing offense, Florida State.  So their run defense in my opinion is very misleading.  Kentucky has never been this big of an underdog in this rivalry game and I think the game will be much closer.  Kentucky also remembers being up 24-7 at the half last year and blowing that game so do not be surprised if we see them with a shot to win this game late. 

Ohio State +1 with Michigan State +17.5 3.3% teaser

Ohio State +1 / Teaser

There are not many games where you could say Jim Harbough is not the best coach.  Urban Meyer arguably the best coach in the nation and I like the fact that he’s at home here and there is good weather on the way with no wind which has me leaning towards the over.  Meyer seems to get a little more aggressive with JT Barret when the weather is good and he naturally always has a good passing team.  I think Ohio State comes out aggressive in this game and they have the better players and are at home.  Meyer always a good big game head coach in college and it’s been well documented.  Meanwhile Harbough has come up short many times throughout his coaching career.  That’s not to say it can change, but I don’t see it changing in this situation. 

Overall these teams are very even on both sides of the ball in running, and passing and playing defense against both, but there are 3 things I like in Ohio State’s favor here and they are 3 big differences.  Coaching, QB, and home field advantage.  Those three will be the key and the difference in Ohio State winning this game big and possibly by double digits. 

Michigan State +17.5

All of the pressure is on Penn State here, and this is Michigan State’s bowl game.  They have been playing much better of late and have stepped up in the big games.  The defense is still not what it once was, but they are healthier than the past and they are led by Riley Bullough who should have his team pumpe dup to play Penn State.  Penn State has more injuries on the offensive line, and a banged up Saquon Barkley.  This is an inflated line in my opinion and Michigan State is 15-2 ATS as a dog over their last 17, which includes a 3-0 ATS mark this year.  I’m taking some extra points in this one althought I just think Penn State comes out super tight after they realize Ohio State wins and they have a shot to get to the Big Ten title game. 

Toledo +8.5 3.3% play / Toledo +290 1% play

I think there is a ton of value here with Toledo when you look at their offense and you look at what Western Michigan has faced this year.  Toledo has a balanced offense with a ton of weapons.  Western Michigan also has a ton of pressure on them and finally an opponent that is good enough to upset them here.  If Toledo was at home and not on a short week I would be calling for the upset, but instead I’m just going to call for the win. Toledo’s QB, Logan Woodside has been arguably the best QB in the nation with 40 TD passes to just 7 interceptions 70% completion rate, 9.9 yards per attempt.  Western Michigan obviously an impressive offense, but Toledo’s defense is a little better in my opinion and they have faced a tougher schedule.  Western Michigan has also really relied on winning the turnover margin at +15 this year they have not lost it in a single game.  Toledo has just 11 turnovers overall which should keep them in this game.

Iowa -1.5 2.2% play

I like Iowa in this spot at home where they have played very well of late.  Nebraska has all the pressure in the world with a shot to get to the Big Ten title game, but I don't see it happening.  Tommy Armstrong is not 100%, but he will make the start and a hamstring injury really hinders a dynamic running QB in a lot of ways.  Even if he is 100% at the start the risk for re-injury is very high.  If he does not injure it again I expect him to struggle either way as his home away splits are completely different.  He's got a QB ratings of more than 50 points higher at home, and he's 16% more accurate at home.  On the road he's got 2 TD's to 5 interceptions and that's where I think Iowa wins this game.

Last year they were happy to force Nebraska into obvious passing downs and drop guys in coverage which led to 4 interceptions.  Now Nebraska has cleaned up the turnover issues from a year ago, but they still average 2 per game on the road and Iowa has lost just 3 turnovers in 6 games at home.  I'm confident to say that they should win the TO battle and that flips things to the running game for both teams, because none of this matters if a team is not able to run and stop the run. 

Actually looking at everything Iowa should have the better chance to establish the running game.  For one they are at home, and they have two running backs in Akrum Wadley and Leshun Daniels who are getting better as the year progresses behind a very good offensive line.  Overall the statistical numbers for both teams running the ball and stopping the run are similar, but here is what the difference will be.  Nebraska has allowed 4.83 yards per carry on the road.  Their running game relies heavily on Tommy Armstrong running the ball.  He has approximately 25% of the runs this year and 8 TD's more than #1 RB Terrel Newby.  Second, their next RB back up is Devine Ozigbo and he's questionable for this game.  I look for the Hawkeyes to squeak out of this game with a TD victory. 

Texas -3 4.4% NCAAF POD

We know we are going to get Texas players best efforts and when that happens they usually exceed Vegas expectations.  Charlie Strong likely let go after this game, but the players are not too happy.  This is as big of a win one for the gipper situation that I remember seeing in a while.  Here are some player quotes:

“Letting this man go is equivalent to losing a Father.  He has done wonders for all the players on the team and we want him to continue that.”

“The main reason we came to UT was because of Coach Strong’s plan for us to succeed and become a better man, now y’all take him away.”

TCU, has had highs and lows this season, but have dramatically underperformed this year.  Gary Patterson, just suffered his biggest loss at home in 13 years, he also went 0-2 ATS off byes this year he had been 13-0 ATS over his previous 13 so a lot going wrong for this team.  Look I simply can’t trust Kenny Hill at QB for TCU, and their passing defense is a major issue which is something QB Shane Buechele and Texas are capable of taking advantage of in this offense.  Texas has a very balanced offense and they should put up a ton of points in this one at least 40 in my opinion.

Air Force +8.5 2.2%play

Boise State is not nearly as dominating as their record looks at 10-1.  Really they have been lucky catching Oregon State and Washington State at the right time and even BYU whom they beat by 1 point were very lucky as BYU played without their best player in running back Jamaal Williams.  This Boise team has lost 7 games on the road since 2013 and I just don’t buy into Bryan Harsin as a good coach.  Air Force has beaten him the last two seasons, and now Boise State goes on the road to face this triple option again without two of their starting linebackers and they have already struggled to stop the run 4.46 ypc on the season and 5.33 ypc in conference play.  That’s just unheard of.  On the flip side Air Force still very under rated at stopping the run and that’s what Boise State relies on most with McNichols.  Air Force may give up a ton of rushing yards in this game, but to lose by double digits the way they play and convert on third downs, 60% at home on the season.  I just think Air Force is well coached, and Boise State’s coaching staff is over rated.  Brett Rypien for instance seems to have digressed he had 109 yards passing 10-20 completion against UNLV last week who have given up 22 passing TD’s to just 5 interceptions on the season.  Air Force should win the turnover margin here which will be enough to put them in position to win this game outright. 

Arkansas -1.5 with LSU -1 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

Arkansas -1.5

I like the Razorbacks to win this one and do so easily.  Missouri is very bad against the run giving up 300 yards rushing 4 times already this season and 5.85 yards per carry in conference play.  Now they face an Arkansas offense that honestly is one of the best in the conference.  Arkansas can beat you in the passing game, and now their running game is coming alive behind the legs of Rawleigh Williams III.  Brett Bielama calls Williams his best RB recruit ever and the sophomore is starting to live up to the hype.  One thing to look at is the fact that Arkansas 4 losses came when they rushed for 120, 73, 25, and 81 yards.  Those were all against top 50 rushing defense sand Missouri really has not stopped the run all year as we previously mentioned.

Arkansas defense is a concern, but I think they get a couple of breaks here.  For one they struggled against the run again last week, but Miss State’s dual threat QB Nick Fitzgerald had more than half the rushing yards with 131.  Drew Lock here is not that type of QB, and he is without his top RB in Crocket who has rushed for 1,000 yards and 10 TD’s.  Crocket is suspended for this game.  Missouri also not going to a bowl game here and although we have heard some trash talk overall I think Arkansas has this game covered.  Their coaching staff also has a massive advantage with Dan Enos as the OC, and Brett Bielma while Barry Odom seems over his head as a head coach.  Odom the previous defensive coordinator has seen his defense go from one of the best defenses to one of the worst in the country.  On top of it all Arkansas one of the toughest schedules in the country.  If they were playing in the other SEC Division, the one Missouri plays in they’d be heading to the SEC Championship.

LSU -1 

Texas A&M’s defense has seriously struggled since Trevor Knight was lost as their backup QB Hubenak has been just pretty awful and has not faced a team worth noting on defense. He’s not a guy that can break down a defense with his legs like Knight could which added another dynamic to this offense.

Texas A&M’s defense has been very good, but their strength is really vs. the pass with their pass rush.  They struggle against power rushing teams giving up 278 to Alabama, and 365 to Miss State, and Tennessee and Auburn also gained 200+ yards.  I think LSU can live on the ground in this game and just play solid defense to get the win. Texas A&M has allowed 29, 35, 33, and 38 points in their last 4 SEC games and if LSU exceeds that and I think they will they should cruise to a double digit victory here on Thanksgiving night! 

Arkansas -1.5 with LSU -1 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

Arkansas -1.5

I like the Razorbacks to win this one and do so easily.  Missouri is very bad against the run giving up 300 yards rushing 4 times already this season and 5.85 yards per carry in conference play.  Now they face an Arkansas offense that honestly is one of the best in the conference.  Arkansas can beat you in the passing game, and now their running game is coming alive behind the legs of Rawleigh Williams III.  Brett Bielama calls Williams his best RB recruit ever and the sophomore is starting to live up to the hype.  One thing to look at is the fact that Arkansas 4 losses came when they rushed for 120, 73, 25, and 81 yards.  Those were all against top 50 rushing defense sand Missouri really has not stopped the run all year as we previously mentioned.

Arkansas defense is a concern, but I think they get a couple of breaks here.  For one they struggled against the run again last week, but Miss State’s dual threat QB Nick Fitzgerald had more than half the rushing yards with 131.  Drew Lock here is not that type of QB, and he is without his top RB in Crocket who has rushed for 1,000 yards and 10 TD’s.  Crocket is suspended for this game.  Missouri also not going to a bowl game here and although we have heard some trash talk overall I think Arkansas has this game covered.  Their coaching staff also has a massive advantage with Dan Enos as the OC, and Brett Bielma while Barry Odom seems over his head as a head coach.  Odom the previous defensive coordinator has seen his defense go from one of the best defenses to one of the worst in the country.  On top of it all Arkansas one of the toughest schedules in the country.  If they were playing in the other SEC Division, the one Missouri plays in they’d be heading to the SEC Championship.

LSU -1 

Texas A&M’s defense has seriously struggled since Trevor Knight was lost as their backup QB Hubenak has been just pretty awful and has not faced a team worth noting on defense. He’s not a guy that can break down a defense with his legs like Knight could which added another dynamic to this offense.

Texas A&M’s defense has been very good, but their strength is really vs. the pass with their pass rush.  They struggle against power rushing teams giving up 278 to Alabama, and 365 to Miss State, and Tennessee and Auburn also gained 200+ yards.  I think LSU can live on the ground in this game and just play solid defense to get the win. Texas A&M has allowed 29, 35, 33, and 38 points in their last 4 SEC games and if LSU exceeds that and I think they will they should cruise to a double digit victory here on Thanksgiving night! 

UCLA +18.5 / FLORIDA +20.5 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

UCLA +18.5

USC in a major let down spot with Notre Dame on deck.  USC really has not been able to blow out teams with good defenses.  UCLA ranked 11th in yards per play allowed and are even better vs. the pass.  UCLA is just hanging on to their bowl hopes and they know they have to play a near perfect game to get the upset.  Let’s check out USC’s blow out wins they were against defenses ranked 117, 123, 95, 121.  Darnold may struggle here against UCLA on the road following that big upset of Washington who seemed extremely tight in that game.

UCLA’s biggest loss was by 10 points, and I like the way senior QB Mike Fafaul has played of late.  He’s turnover prone but an experienced senior and knows what it will take to beat USC.  I don’t think they will pull the upset, but UCLA definitely should stay around in this game.

Florida +20.5

An extremely low total in this game, and we are getting a ton of points with a motivated Florida team wanting to get to the SEC Champion ship game.  Florida wins and they are in.  I think they know how unfair this game is having to go to LSU after this game was rescheduled due to the hurricane and I think you get an inspired effort which is what you need against LSU’s running game.  I think the injuries Florida has had have been exaggerated in this line and as soon as I saw it go to 14.5 I was a buyer especially with a total of 37.5.

Many may worry about the QB, but actually I prefer Austin Appleby at QB by far.  Appleby has faced 3 very good defenses in Tennessee, South Carolina and Vanderbilt and has put up much better numbers than Del Rio.  He’s completing 65.6% of his passes in those games and has 5 TD’s to 2 interceptions.  LSU rebounded with Ed Oregeron taking over, but I just see far too much motivation on Florida’s side of the ball for them to just let this game slip and get blown out here.  They have plenty of 4 star guys to replace the injuries and I think their more balanced on offense and better in the red zone. 

Vanderbilt +320 2% play

I think Vandy has a good shot at pulling the upset this week especially since Ole Miss is off an upset on the road to Texas A&M, a team that is extremely banged up on defense and lost their QB.  Ole Miss also lost their QB Chad Kelly, and Shea Patterson is supposed to be the next big thing, but I think the hype for a freshmen is just too high and that’s why we get a ton of value here.  Anytime you play back to back road games in the SEC it’s not going to be an easy task.  Ole Miss also has the Egg Bowl up next as their look ahead.  Meanwhile Vanderbilt players are finally back at home trying to save Derek Mason’s job.

Vanderbilt’s defense is still very under rated and they may have the best defensive player in the country in Zach Cunningham who will be a sure 1st round pick if he decides to go to the NFL.  I actually like Vanderbilt’s defense in the red zone to be the main reason they win this game.  Ole Miss 1-5 in the red zone last week with just 1 TD, and Vanderbilt is holding opponents to 50% on the season which is impressive because they have a 40% rate in conference play which has included a ton of road games.  Vanderbilt’s offense actually should get going a little in this game.  Ole Miss allowing 5.70 yards per carry in conference play and are really weak at linebacker and have injuries in the secondary that have hurt this team.  Vandy has capable runner even without Ralph Webb being 100%, and their QB Kyle Shurmur has a capable arm has played better over his last 3 games and I think he has his best game yet in this one.

Hawaii -3 5.5% NCAAF POD

Hawaii has been pretty good in conference play on the road beating San Jose State and Air force before losing badly to San Diego State, but who doesn’t?  Hawaii, facing a bad defense in Fresno State who ranks 97th in yards per play allowed.  Hawaii vs. bad teams like that have been able to put up 31+ points on a regular basis and that gives them a tremendous edge in this game considering how bad Fresno State’s offense has been which is non-existent.  They topped 30 points 1 time all year against an FBS opponent and lost the game.

This is a rivalry game, but Hawaii I feel is better than their record when you consider their losses are against Cal, Arizona, San Diego State, Boise State, and a 3 point loss against UNLV.  Add in all of the travel disadvantages this team has and I think they are having a pretty good year.  I think they can still get into a bowl game at 6-7 and I’m sure they have that on their mind.  

Hawaii will be able to run the ball in this one especially since they had 7+ yards per carry at Boise State.  Dru Brown, a mobile QB also should give Fresno issues.  Fresno State’s defense has allowed 200+ rushing yards in every game this season and 23 rushing TD’s.  Their pass defense has not been any better allowing 20 TD’s to just 3 interceptions.  Hawaii’s main issues when they lose is the fact that they turn the ball over.  They are -12 alone in their last 3 games, but Fresno has forced just 6 turnovers all year long.  Fresno has not shown me any signs of improvement and this is by far the worst offense that Hawaii’s defense has faced.  Hawaii’s defense has had quite the stretch facing 9 of their 11 opponents who are in the top 60 in yards per play offense, 6 in the top 40.   The other 2 they held to 17 points each which is an encouraging sign for this game.  To put that into perspective Fresno has faced 1 POWER 5 opponent, Hawaii has faced 3 + Boise State, and they have faced just 3 teams in the top 40 in yards per play offense.

SMU +400 1.5% PLAY

South Florida has Central Florida up next, and SMU is no slouch especially with their offense while South Florida’s defense is not exactly able to stop many average offenses let alone an SMU offense that put up 40, 38, 35, 7, and 55 in their last 5 games.  Mixed in there are some pretty good defenses in Houston, Tulsa and Tulane all ranking better in yards per play defense than South Florida at #90.  The Memphis game SMU turned the ball over and were -3 TO margin, but today if they can have turnovers on their side they will have a chance to win the game and the value is just too high with this one not to take a shot with tremendous value.  I also like the fact that SMU is desperate to get to a bowl game they are definitely an improved team and even their defense has stepped up at times this year.  They beat Houston at home earlier in the year and if they beat South Florida that is a hell of a season.  South Florida won this game last year, but SMU turned it over 4 times in the 38-14 loss but actually outgained South Florida 365 to 353.  

Northwestern -1.5 3.3% play

I really like Northwestern in this spot.  A big concern was the weather, but as of right now it looks to be just cold with wind dying down in the afternoon when this game kicks off.  Northwestern needs 1 win to get to a bowl game and I think they’ll get it here against an over rated Minnesota team that has largely benefited from a weak schedule.  Minnesota’s 7 wins have come against 6 FBS teams who are likely not going to a bowl with a combined record of 19-40.  They also faced Indiana State who is 4-7 out of the FCS rankings.  They have played the 4 worst teams in the Big Ten in Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois, and Purdue and they have avoided Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin.  Meanwhile Northwestern has played Ohio State and Wisconsin and Western Michigan in non-conference play.

All in all you still have to play the game, but Northwestern has gotten bigger in recent years in their front 7 on defense which allows them to match up well with Minnesota who actually is banged up on the offensive line coming into this game.  Northwestern has really been able to stop one dimensional offenses without a running QB or passing QB.  They held Wisconsin to 3.33 ypc, Indiana 3.11, Michigan State 2.22, and Iowa 1.93.  They are also the healthier team which really helps and their offense is much more balanced with Justin Jackson out of the backfield and the passing arm of Clayton Thorson who has 10 TD’s to 4 interceptions on the road.

Northwestern has arguably the best receiver in Austin Carr in the Big Ten and they have played well on the road against good teams.  Minnesota although they are 7-3 like I mentioned have played a very weak schedule that’s misleading.  Northwestern’s defense has held this Minnesota rushing attack in check the last two years holding them to 74 and 121 rushing yards and I think they can do it again.  Minnesota also 0-3 when they don’t have a + turnover margin and Northwestern very good at taking care of the ball with only 11 turnovers lost all season long!

UCLA +18.5 / FLORIDA +20.5 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

UCLA +18.5

USC in a major let down spot with Notre Dame on deck.  USC really has not been able to blow out teams with good defenses.  UCLA ranked 11th in yards per play allowed and are even better vs. the pass.  UCLA is just hanging on to their bowl hopes and they know they have to play a near perfect game to get the upset.  Let’s check out USC’s blow out wins they were against defenses ranked 117, 123, 95, 121.  Darnold may struggle here against UCLA on the road following that big upset of Washington who seemed extremely tight in that game.

UCLA’s biggest loss was by 10 points, and I like the way senior QB Mike Fafaul has played of late.  He’s turnover prone but an experienced senior and knows what it will take to beat USC.  I don’t think they will pull the upset, but UCLA definitely should stay around in this game.

Florida +20.5

An extremely low total in this game, and we are getting a ton of points with a motivated Florida team wanting to get to the SEC Champion ship game.  Florida wins and they are in.  I think they know how unfair this game is having to go to LSU after this game was rescheduled due to the hurricane and I think you get an inspired effort which is what you need against LSU’s running game.  I think the injuries Florida has had have been exaggerated in this line and as soon as I saw it go to 14.5 I was a buyer especially with a total of 37.5.

Many may worry about the QB, but actually I prefer Austin Appleby at QB by far.  Appleby has faced 3 very good defenses in Tennessee, South Carolina and Vanderbilt and has put up much better numbers than Del Rio.  He’s completing 65.6% of his passes in those games and has 5 TD’s to 2 interceptions.  LSU rebounded with Ed Oregeron taking over, but I just see far too much motivation on Florida’s side of the ball for them to just let this game slip and get blown out here.  They have plenty of 4 star guys to replace the injuries and I think their more balanced on offense and better in the red zone. 

Louisiana Lafayette +23 3.3% play

This is a massive let down sport for Georgia who is pretty content wrapping up SEC play last week with a big upset over a top 10 Auburn club.  Now they have their in-state rival Georgia Tech on deck and have to face the Rajin Cajuns, a hungry team.  There are a couple of other things I like in this one when you consider this game has a very low total of 44, and Lafayette very good against the run allowing just 3 yards per carry on the season and they have turned the ball over just 10 times all year.  Georgia’s offense really not capable of putting up a ton of points without their defense scoring. 

Georgia’s offense is really reliant on the running game and that plays into the hands of the strength of this Lafayette team.  Lafayette also good in red zone defense while Georgia has struggled in red zone defense and offense.  To win by more than 3 TD’s without caring a ton about the game will be a challenge in my opinion.  Georgia’s biggest win all year was South Carolina by 14 points and they only won by 14 because they returned an onside kick for a TD to end the game.  I remember that well as I had South Carolina +7.5.  What a way to lose!  Anyway I really like this spot to fade Georgia who is not having much of a season. 

Kansas State -1.5 2.2% play

Kansas State off a bye and Bill Snyder is 10-0 ATS under that situation.  This Kansas State team fighting for bowl eligibility and their 4 losses are not bad at all against Stanford, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.  Baylor in a free fall right now just lost their QB, and I just think this spells more trouble for Baylor who has given up 941 yards rushing in their last 3 games along 12 rushing TD’s.  Kansas State 5.80 yards per carry in their wins with 17 TD’s and 4.12 in their losses.  I believe they should be able to run all over Baylor here for an easy victory as they force Baylor’s freshmen QB Zach Smith into multiple mistakes in this game.  

ARKANSAS STATE +8.5 3.3% PLAY

Arkansas State got off to a slow start under their new head coach Blake Anderson , but their schedule was not exactly easy opening up against Toledo and then road games against Auburn and Utah State.  The shocker was their loss against Central Arkansas, but that team has gone 6-0 since and has just 1 loss on the season at 9-1 so obviously a good team.  Arkansas State started conference play after that game and have cruised to a 5-0 record.  They were picked to win the Sun Belt or challenge Appalachian State, and they still control their own destiny.  Call me crazy, but I think they may be able to beat Troy outright here and I think Troy is definitely getting some extra love here finding themselves in the top 25, the first Sun Belt team ever.

Troy was lucky that App State got off to such a slow start and they were able to hold the ball last and get the win to end the game a week ago.  Other than that this team really has not blown out any good teams.  They have 4 wins by more than 10.5 points this year and those teams are a combined 10-29 -  2-7, 6-4 (Idaho), and 2-8 Umass and 0-10 Austin Peay.  Arkansas State is a completely different team I conference play.  They are averaging 1.97 ypc more in conference play,  and holding opponents to -1.23 less than their non-conference schedule.  Their pass defense also has gotten dramatically better in conference playing holding opponents to a 51.8% completion %, and 3 TD’s to just 6 interceptions while their 3rd down and red zone defenses are excellent.  Third down defense holding opponents 26.92% in conference play, and their red zone defense has allowed only 28.57% TD percentage in conference play.  They had major turnover issues earlier in the season with 12 in a 3 game stretch, but have cleaned those up with just 3 total turnovers over their last 4 games where they are +5 in TO margin.

Last week I was on App State in a teaser and I mentioned all of the bad rushing offenses this Troy team has faced.  App State got the running game going at 4.39 yards per carry with 2 TD’s.  I’m betting on Arkansas State to have a similar result, and their defense is just as good.  Expect another close game here, and if anything Troy coming off a tough game where they beat the Sun Belt favorites.  This could be a bit of a let down spot and Arkansas State, a more experienced program in terms of fighting for a conference title. 

Northern Illinois pk 3.3% play 

Let's kick off the week here in MACTION.  I will fade the line movement here today which is based on the fact that everyone is saying Northern Illinois is done at 3-7 and can't get to a bowl game etc, but this year they actually can at 5-7 with not a ton of teams contending for winning record seasons.  I'm sure they know this, and they have been playing much better lately.  For Eastern Michigan they have 6 wins likely heading to a bowl and very content and I think this is a step up in competition for them, because Northern Illinois is definitely improving at the right time which is what you want to see and in reality both these teams are 3-3 in conference play.

Eastern Michigan is definitely improved in all areas this year which was expected in a three year coach, but a closer look and really they are beting up on bad teams from the MAC East.  They barely got by the worst team in the MAC West in Ball State, but otherwise they are 1-2 vs. the MAC West.  On paper it looks like they have a massive edge in the passing game, but Northern Illinois has played much better lately.  They have 6 sacks against two top 30 pass protection teams in their last two games and have forced 7 interceptions over their last 3.  That's important, because Eastern Michigan while they have forced 21 they have given up 19.  I think Northern Illinois can generate a pass rush here and force some turnovers.

Another thing I looked at was Eastern MIchigan's improved run defense allowing just 152.1 yards per game which is 48th in the country, but they are actually so bad against the pass 119th that nobody has bothered to run much on them. Just 3 teams all year with more than 40 carries against them where they went 1-2 in those games with their only win being against Bowling Green by only 3 points and BG was just awful at the time.  Northern Illinois is 20th in the country running the ball from a YPC perspective and have 40+ carries in 7 of their 10 games.  Northern Illinois will run their QB a lot which is tough to stop for EAstern Michigan who has allowed over 4 yards per carry in six straight games and likely will do the same here.  If they don't win the turnover margin they will likely lose this game and that's what I am banking on based on recent results as Northern Illinois has protected the ball with just 3 turnovers the last 3 games while Eastern Michigan has 6 turnovers in their last 3 games.  I think Northern Illinois is a proud team and they will want to win this game. 

APP STATE +7.5 / NEBRASKA -0.5 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

We are in a major funk with these plays the last two weeks the difference between 0-2 and 2-0 have been a total of 4.5 points.

NEBRASKA – Nebraska is 18-0 in their last 18 home games at night as this game will be.  Tommy Armstrong practiced this week and should be a full go for the game.  Mike Riley said if he’s out there the offense will not hold back.  It also helps that they are getting RG Jeral Foster back who will bolster the offensive line which has had injuries.  We get tremendous value in the line based on Nebraska’s 62-3 loss against Ohio State.  Minnesota has been rolling, but their schedule has been really easy as they have avoided Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  Their last 3 games have been against the worst in the Big Ten and for that reason I think they are getting far too much credit.

The strength of schedule is a big deal because Nebraska has faced 8 teams in the top 50 in YPP offense + defense while Minnesota has faced just two combined.  Nebraska still can win the West as can Minnesota, but really the difference here will be the fact that Minnesota is playing a team with a mobile QB, who has a good arm when his mechanics are right and he’s played so much better at home over his career.  This year he has a 149 QB Rating at home compared to 88 on the road.  To go along with a rushing offense that needs to pick it up and I believe they will do just that here today.  On the other side Minnesota is a one dimensional attack and Nebraska should have everything they need to stop it here tonight. They held Minnesota to 65 rushing yards on the road last year, and although their run defense on paper does not look good it’s because they have faced two top 20 rushing offenses that have inflated their numbers.  That just brings me back to the fact that Minnesota has not played anyone.

APP STATE - This is going to be a battle, and a battle I think App State overall wins.  For one they have had the tougher schedule with a total of 6 teams in the top 50 in yards per play offense + yards per play defense.  Troy comes in with just 4.  Overall these teams are very similar.  They can play defense, and they can move the ball.  I think App State is a little bit better on defense, and their offense really has not been able to play at full strength with the health of Marcus Cox not there each week, but with him, Jalin Moore, and Taylor Lamb I am confident this team will move the ball against Troy’s run defense ranked among the best in the country.  A closer look reveals the fact that Troy has not face a team in the top 65 in rushing offense from a YPC perspective and App State is #34.  In fact they have faced an average opponent offense ranked 108th.  That can really help out a secondary when you don’t have to really concentrate on stopping the run.  With all that said this secondary has still struggled at times giving up a lot of yards, but they make up for it by forcing turnovers.  I don’t think they can afford to play that well today with the relentless rushing attack that will be on the other side.

This game is going to come down to a field goal in my opinion and I feel like I have the better defense in a playoff like atmosphere I’ll take App State who has been in tougher games this season. 

Arkansas +7 5.5% NCAAF POD

The Tigers have not played particularly well in the previous six contests following a defeat against Alabama. LSU has won four of the six games, but struggled in knocking off Troy (2008), Louisiana Tech (2009) and Mississippi State (2012).

The Tigers did comfortably beat Texas A&M 34-10 in 2013. However, LSU had the benefit of an open date after losing to the Tide that year. Arkansas whipped LSU the past two seasons by scores of 17-0 and 31-14 – the latter loss coming in Tiger Stadium.

I don’t really understand this spread other than the fact that LSU has a top 10 rushing offense and Arkansas has one of the worst rushing defenses in the nation and in the SEC.  However, Arkansas really was banged up before their bye.  Against Florida last week, a run first team they managed to hold them to 14 rushing yards.  The defense is healthy and was only on the field for 20 minutes last week and 51 total plays compared to the LSU’s defense which was on the field for 34 minutes and 70 plays.  They also played in a very physical game, and I expect a major hang over for this team and their head coach Ed Orgeron, who is likely out after the season.  LSU, not much to play for here with 3 losses other than maybe revenge against Arkansas, but I still think Arkansas has too good of an offense to lose by more than a TD.

A couple of other things here.  LSU struggled the last two years to run the ball against Arkansas with 59 rushing yards, and 36 rushing yards.  Arkansas got healthy last week, and againt his week they get another opportunity to play in their base defense, the 4-3 and allow their linebackers to make the plays.  They don’t have a big threat in LSU’s passing game, much like last week and that should give them good results to keep this game close.  On flip side LSU’s defense will have their hands full.  Arkansas has a balanced attack, and the running game has gotten much better since they moved some things on the offensive line.  This is a team with serious weapons in the receiving corps and Austin Allen is doing a good job of getting the ball to all of them who are mostly upper classmen playing in their last game at home!  This offense put up 30 points against Alabama’s defense despite 5 turnovers.  Arkansas has cleaned up the turnovers and have actually forced 12 turnovers in 6 home games meanwhile LSU’s defense as good as it is has forced only 12 turnovers all year.

At the end of the day these teams are pretty even, and we are still catching value off Arkansas getting dominated by Auburn just a few weeks ago, but this is a different Arkansas team that is 22-8 ATS in their last 30 November games which includes 8-2 ATS under their head coach Bielema. 

South Florida -3 3.3% play

Some misleading things going on here in my opinion.  Let’s start with each teams last game.  Memphis dominated SMU 51-7, less than 500 total yards, and benefited from a kick off return for a TD and +3 TO ratio.  There were 4 fumbles in the game and Memphis recovered every single one including their own.  SMU, 124th in the nation in special teams and now Memphis has to face a South Florida team coming into this game with revenge for their only home loss a season ago to Memphis 24-17.  South Florida sports a top 25 special teams unit, and has just 1 turnover all season on the road.  This is also the best offense that Memphis has faced, one could argue.  South Florida is top 10 in yards per play.  Memphis has faced 4 teams in the top 51 and have allowed an average 44 points per game in those contests on their way to a 1-3 record.  I’m hiding the fact that South Florida comes into the game having faced 4 top 50 offenses too and allowed 40.75 ppg, but their non-conference schedule was much tougher, and the bye to rest up is certainly an advantage when you consider Memphis is playing in their 9th straight week.

South Florida also has a trio of runners in Flowers at QB, Marlon Mack and Dernest Johnson all capable of dominating this game.  Flowers also very efficient through the air and is certainly a dual threat QB, something that Memphis has not faced this season.  South Florida has lost two games and in those games they gave up 10 rushing TD’s and 6.99 yards per carry.  I really don’t see that being a factor with a rested team.  Memphis of course also more of a passing team as they rank 104th in adjusted run defense while South Florida struggles with the runt hey are better at defending the pass ranking 53rd in adjusted pass defense.  I really like the match up when you consider Memphis ranks 96th vs. the run and South Florida is 7th running the ball.  South Florida’s pass defense has been really good allowing just 10 TD’s on the year to 8 interceptions.  Riley Ferguson has been very good, but he has turned the ball over at times.  Memphis just 2-3 when they don’t win the TO margin battle and as I mentioned South Florida has 1 turnover on the road this year.  The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, Memphis is 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games after scoring 40+ in their previous game is getting too much credit here.  I’ll take South Florida as the road favorite. 

APP STATE +7.5 / NEBRASKA -0.5 4.4% TEASER OF THE WEEK

We are in a major funk with these plays the last two weeks the difference between 0-2 and 2-0 have been a total of 4.5 points.

NEBRASKA – Nebraska is 18-0 in their last 18 home games at night as this game will be.  Tommy Armstrong practiced this week and should be a full go for the game.  Mike Riley said if he’s out there the offense will not hold back.  It also helps that they are getting RG Jeral Foster back who will bolster the offensive line which has had injuries.  We get tremendous value in the line based on Nebraska’s 62-3 loss against Ohio State.  Minnesota has been rolling, but their schedule has been really easy as they have avoided Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  Their last 3 games have been against the worst in the Big Ten and for that reason I think they are getting far too much credit.

The strength of schedule is a big deal because Nebraska has faced 8 teams in the top 50 in YPP offense + defense while Minnesota has faced just two combined.  Nebraska still can win the West as can Minnesota, but really the difference here will be the fact that Minnesota is playing a team with a mobile QB, who has a good arm when his mechanics are right and he’s played so much better at home over his career.  This year he has a 149 QB Rating at home compared to 88 on the road.  To go along with a rushing offense that needs to pick it up and I believe they will do just that here today.  On the other side Minnesota is a one dimensional attack and Nebraska should have everything they need to stop it here tonight. They held Minnesota to 65 rushing yards on the road last year, and although their run defense on paper does not look good it’s because they have faced two top 20 rushing offenses that have inflated their numbers.  That just brings me back to the fact that Minnesota has not played anyone.

APP STATE - This is going to be a battle, and a battle I think App State overall wins.  For one they have had the tougher schedule with a total of 6 teams in the top 50 in yards per play offense + yards per play defense.  Troy comes in with just 4.  Overall these teams are very similar.  They can play defense, and they can move the ball.  I think App State is a little bit better on defense, and their offense really has not been able to play at full strength with the health of Marcus Cox not there each week, but with him, Jalin Moore, and Taylor Lamb I am confident this team will move the ball against Troy’s run defense ranked among the best in the country.  A closer look reveals the fact that Troy has not face a team in the top 65 in rushing offense from a YPC perspective and App State is #34.  In fact they have faced an average opponent offense ranked 108th.  That can really help out a secondary when you don’t have to really concentrate on stopping the run.  With all that said this secondary has still struggled at times giving up a lot of yards, but they make up for it by forcing turnovers.  I don’t think they can afford to play that well today with the relentless rushing attack that will be on the other side.

This game is going to come down to a field goal in my opinion and I feel like I have the better defense in a playoff like atmosphere I’ll take App State who has been in tougher games this season. 

TULANE +25 2.2% Play

It’s hard not to play Tulane here after having them last week and Houston clearly looking ahead to their showdown with Louisville in 5 days.  Tulane actually had a 348-297 yard edge in their 37-6 loss to Central Florida, but had 5 turnovers with 3 of them being returned for touch downs.  They honestly could have or should have won the game.  The shitty thing was they only had 3 turnovers on the road all season going into that game so they had been taking care of the ball.   This is a value play as much as it is a look ahead spot for Houston who has no business laying this many points after the way they have played the last 4 weeks. 

Boston College +21 3.3% play 

BC is hunting for wins to get into a bowl game and Florida State has about had it.  Last week I took NC State money line over Florida State and they were lucky to come back and win that game. Florida State's defense has been on the field 80+ plays the last two games, and have been on the field 34 and 33 minutes.  Boston College a team that likes to hold onto the time of possession should control this game in that sense and I don't see Florida State running the score up like Louisville, Clemson and Va Tech did to Boston College. 

In each of those games BC struggled to stop the running game of their opponent.  I don't see that happening here, all 3 of those team shave running QB's with option attacks and that's not Florida State.  Francois is a mobile, but he has just 87 rushing yards due to the struggles of his offensive line who have allowed 28 sacks and 60 tackles for loss.  Boston College very good up front and is allowing less than 3 yards per carry on the season. BC has held Florida State to 110 and 98 yards rushing the last two years.  This game has a very low total of 47 give me Boston College +21! 

LSU +7.5 2.2% PLAY

There is a reason Alabama is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS on the road this year and laying huge numbers.  When you look at all three games they faced the following run defenses, 117, 128, and 94.  To beat this Alabama team you have to start by stopping the run and neither of those SEC teams could do it, but in comes LSU as one of the top run defenses in the country, and they are also a top pass defense something Alabama really not used to seeing.  Points will be at a premium.  Another thing in common with all 3 road games is the fact that Alabama faced rushing offenses of 71, 115, and 81 so that just tells me that they have not faced a team that can match up with them in the trenches.  LSU is #1 in rushing offense from a YPC perspective, and they’re at home at night in death valley.  I think LSU puts Alabama in a spot they haven’t been all year and with a freshman QB in Jalen Hurts I’m just not so sure they lose this game.  I really do not trust Jalen Hurts with the ball so if LSU can stop the run like they have been doing all season long this is a game played in the teens.

People forget that this Alabama team actually lost quite a bit form last year’s team which included 24 letterman compared to LSU’s 13.  LSU returned 17 starters to Alabama’s 11.  I know that’s history at this point in the season, but LSU’s recruiting and talent is as close to Alabama as any other team.  The key I think in this game is whether or not LSU trusts their defense to win the game.  I think they do, and I think we see a lot of running with some play action and timely throws.  This is Ed Orgeron’s biggest game he has nothing to lose and I think the pressure is really on Alabama who is the #1 seed in the college football playoff. LSU’s losses don’t look as bad now do they?  Wisconsin is the real deal and LSU had to go on the road to play that game, and Auburn is now getting serious national attention and Les Miles really blew that game on the road and they actually won it in regulation, but time expired.

Iowa +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD / Iowa +255 1% bonus

Penn State can win out and get into the college football playoff!  That’s not happening and now that they are ranked #12 they have a target on their back and this line is extremely inflated for unjust reasons.  First of all it started with a 3 point win over Minnesota a weaker version of Iowa in reality.  In that game Penn State was +2 total yards, -12 in first downs, -13.5 minutes in time of possession, but they got a key turnover that gave them the win.  Against Maryland they were simply dominant +254 yards, but they still allowed 4.5 yards per carry and were fortunate when Perry Hills, Maryland’s senior QB left very early in that game.  Against Ohio State it was the miracle 60 yard blocked field goal returned for a TD as Ohio State was trying to go up by 7.  Ohio State dominated time of possession 37 minutes to 22 in that game and were coming off a very tough physical game at Wisconsin.  You still have to give them credit for that win, and then they go on the road and beat Purdue 62-24 and now the entire country is giving them credit, but it was a 17-17 game at the half.  Purdue, a very one dimensional offense turned the ball over 4 times and the game was much closer than what the final said.  Purdue also held a significant edge in time of possession 35 to 25 and held Penn State to 2-9 on third down, but they could not stop Saquan Barkley.

I believe Iowa can stop Barkley and I believe this spread is very much inflated.  Iowa coming in off a bye after losing to Wisconsin.  Iowa still has a ton to play for including a shot at the Big Ten Championship game if they win out.  Iowa’s head coach Kirk Ferentz is 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS the last 6 times he is off a bye in the regular season.  The key is run the ball and stop the run, and I believe they can do both here.  First of all Penn State has allowed 6 of 8 opponents to run for 150 or more yards.  Iowa is 26-2 since the 2013 season when they are able to run for over 150+ yards which includes a 5-0 record this season.  While I think their run defense may have some issues with Barkley the extra time to prepare with definitely help, and it’s not like Penn State is blowing opponents out unless they are significantly winning the TO margin, and Iowa has turned the ball over just 5 times all year.  Penn State also has been a big play team this year, and Iowa’s defense is very consistent and good defending big plays. 

Penn State has actually been terrible on third down they were 2-9 against Purdue.  Purdue was allowing opponents at home to convert on 53% of their third downs.  Penn State just 25% on the year, 24% in conference play on third downs and that has transitioned over to their red zone performance of 54% TD’s.  Their defense has also struggled allowing 44% conversions on third down and 63.33% TD’s in red zone play.  Iowa on the other hand has been better on offense and defense across the board in red zone and third down efficiency which is a big key in a close game like this and that’s why I think Iowa is able to pull the upset.  All the pressure on Penn State now that they are ranked #12 with a path to the college football playoff, but I think Iowa has a big head coaching edge in this one. I think you see a huge game from Akrum Wadley

Georgia +4 / Northwestern +12 4.4% Teaser of the week

Georgia +4

I’m going with the more desperate team in this match up that has had the tougher schedule.  Kentucky playing well, because they are finally running the ball more than throwing at 63% on the year.  However, they have faced a top 70 rushing defense 3 times this year and are 1-2 with their only victory by 2 points to Miss State at home.  The other two games against Florida & Alabama they managed just 13 points combined.  Georgia has that kind of defense when you look at what they can do against the run ranking 11th in ypc allowed, allowing just 2.8 YPC in conference play.  Kentucky is at home, but Georgia is at its best when it can run the ball.  Kentucky’s defense is certainly improved, but against the run they are allowing 4.73 ypc in conference play.  Georgia has a big arm QB and as long as he does not make big mistakes Georgia wins this game, because they will be able to run the ball.

Northwestern +12

The Wildcats may just have the best QB in the conference, and Wisconsin having serious issues scoring the ball on anyone have now resorted to a two QB system.  Northwestern put up 20 points at Ohio State last week they put up 24 against a good Indiana defense, 54 on Michigan State, 38 on Iowa.  I just don’t see them getting blown out against Wisconsin with a total of 41 in the game.  Clayton Thorson has been great completing 57.1% of his passes for 15 TD’s and 6 INT’s and he can also run it a little bit, but will rely on Justin Jackson who only rushed it 17 times last week.

Wisconsin’s defense is also banged up with 5 linebackers either questionable or out for the season.  It looks like T.J. Watt will give it a go, but there is just a lot on their injury list and Northwestern is completely healthy.  I expect a competitive game that’s anyone’s game in the 4th quarter. 

NC STATE +189 3% play 

I really like NC State in this spot and think they pull the upset.  First of all Florida State off their loss to Clemson that was really their Super Bowl now at 5-3 it’s hard to see where their effort is going to be the rest of the way.  We have certainly seen that before with Florida State and going on the road to face NC State is no easy task.  NC State is very strong in the front seven and have stopped everyone against the run.  I think they can do the same in this game and I think we are getting several points of value since NC State is off 3 straight losses, but 2 where on the road against Clemson and Louisville.  Then they had to face Boston College at home, another physical defense and I was not surprised to see them lose last week, but not they are home again and they finally face a defense that’s not in the top 30 in run defense.  Although Florida State has played better of late they still have an 87th ranked QB rating defense which is huge in this spot when you consider FSU is also without another guy in the secondary in Trey Marshall who is suspended for the first half for a targeting call.  That should open things up for NC State and the passing offense.  Ryan Finley, the QB transfer form Boise has 10 TD’s to 2 INT”s at home and if NC State can get a lead I think they win this game.

Florida State’s offensive line also has struggled big time and although it’s gotten better in their run blocking they now lose another guy who has started the last 7 games in Landon Dickerson.  They go on the road with not much motivation to play hard against an NC State team that ranks top 25 in defense against the run and pass and are extremely tough in their front seven.  If they get behind in this game Florida State is 114th in pass protection and NC State is 25th getting to the QB 10.74 % of the time at home.  I also like the fact that NC State is 21st in defense holding opponents 71.3 yards under their season average.  They have given Florida State scares in the past when Florida State had all the motivation to come back, but this time off the Clemson loss they are 5-3 nothing to play for if they go down in this game NC State with the outright upset.  They are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

The home-field advantage in Carter-Finley is underrated, and if the Wolfpack fans smell a potential upset in the the works, it will become increasingly difficult for FSU to come from behind. This home-field advantage, especially at night, is major reason why Jimbo Fisher is just 1-2 overall in games at Raleigh.

Tulane +17 3.3% play

This is a game that was postponed from October during the hurricane.  Tulane really needs this game badly if they want to get into a bowl game, but nonetheless this is a dramatic improvement for this team under HC Willie Fritz.  I believe we are getting some line value too when you consider the spread was 13.5 back in October.  Tulane really has not been blown out this season losing by 4, 7, 10, 4, and 23 points to Tulsa on the road.  Tulsa of course plays much faster #1 in the country at 92 plays per game at home and they are 60th in yards per play offense.  Central Florida ranks 105th YPP and is averaging 17 less plays per game.  Central Florida has not played well offensively in conference play averaging 2.98 ypc, 29% on third down and their QB has 5 TD’s to 5INT’s.  Tulane is 14th in sack % and could bring the heat if UCF decides to start throwing the ball around.  UCF has given up 24 sacks, so I’m sure they don’t want to do that at home.  Tulane’s defense also ranks 27th holding opponents 57.4 yards under their season offensive average.

Both teams prefer to run the ball which is the reason why we see this total at 50.  Tulane will run the ball 69% of the time on the road keeping the clock ticking another reason why they have been in the majority of their games.  Central Florida comes in running the ball 57% of the time.  The only time Central Florida blew out an opponent was East Carolina who they were +3 in turnover margin on.  Tulane is +10 on the season and has turned the ball over just 3 times on the road.  Central Florida plays well defensively, but their strength is more against the pass and they have shown vulnerabilities vs. the run which we know Fritz loves to do with that option attack. I just see no reason why Central Florida should be a 17 point favorite.  If anything they are going to be a little upset this after losing to Houston by only 7 points despite forcing 4 turnovers.

Missouri +220 2% PLAY

I think we have a good shot at Missouri pulling an upset this week.  I certainly do not trust Will Muschamp in back to back games after he just pulled an upset over Tennessee, a team that has simply fallen apart.  Missouri has had some injuries on defense, but they have had the last few weeks to get the backups in and used to play.  Missouri should be able to score some points here and South Carolina is 0-2 this year vs. top 50 yards per play offenses.

South Carolina’s offense is ranked 112th, and Missouri’s defense has struggled, but they have faced a lot of good offenses including 5 in the top 50.  Their 3 top opponents West Virginia, LSU, and Florida all on the road.  So there home away splits are a bit inflated and I think Missouri may have their best game here to try to hold onto the possibility of a bowl game.  Meanwhile Will Muschamp and company are looking ahead to their next opponent the Florida Gators.  Muschamp’s previous employer. 

Arkansas +4 4.4% play

The strength of schedule comparison is ridiculously uneven.  Arkansas' four previous SEC opponents, Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss and Auburn all rank in the top five in total offense and in the top four in scoring offense. Three of those four are in the Top-10 of the College Football Playoff Ranking. Florida hasn't played anybody ranked in the current Top-25. Arkansas has played four teams ranked in the Top-25 when they met them. Florida has played one in Tennessee, which is currently on a three-game losing streak and is no longer ranked, and Florida lost that one 38-28.

Arkansas also coming off the bye this week which was very much needed for the health of the offensive line, the QB, and their TE Sprinkle.  In my opinion Florida has not faced an offense as good as Arkansas especially not on the road.  Arkansas QB is going to the NFL and Austin Allen has 4 legitimate weapons in Sprinkle, Cornelius, Hatcher, and Morgan.  Florida’s defense on the road against Tennessee they gave up 38 points, 319 passing yards and 4 TD’s and that was with Tennessee coming out flat.  Florida has faced an average offensive team from a YPP perspective of 91, and they have not faced a single QB in the top 50 in QB rating for a team, Arkansas #32.  On the flip side Arkansas defense has faced an average offensive ranking of #48 in YPP.  So this is actually a downgrade in competition for them.

I mentioned the bye, but I also think we get value as Florida covered at Georgia in misleading fashion, and Arkansas, was gassed on the road against Auburn lost 56-3.  This is a team that gave Alabama a run for their money at home.  Florida just is not getting my respect here I expect Arkansas to win this game outright as Florida has not shown they can run the ball on the road with just 2.6ypc and rank #63 overall in YPC offense.  Arkansas has clearly struggled stopping the run, but they have faced 4 teams in the top 20 with running QB’s.  I believe Arkansas defense is better than their rankings and they will play well here on Satuday.