Iowa State +10 3.3% play

I don't think TCU i really looking ahead to the Big 12 Championship, and this game does have meaning if they want to get to the college football playoff, but this is Iowa State's bowl game.  Matt Campbell does not really coach to lose regardless of what is on the line, and he is a great coach in the under dog role.  TCU has played in 8 games this season that were decided by 10 points or fewer.  Iowa State obviously struggles on offense, but their defense holds them in games.  It's a top 10 unit, and their 7 losses, 6 of them have come by a TD or less. I see much of the same in this game, with the added preasure that TCU is feeling here expect Iowa State to be a live dog. 

Oregon / Oregon State Under 58 5.5% NCAAF POD

This is a big game for Oregon who can get to the PAC 12 Championship with a win.  Oregon State is just a very hard team to beat on the road.  USC was able to do it 17-14, but that’s because Oregon State had costly turnovers.  I think with two run heavy teams, and Bo Nix not being 100%, he had 2 rushes last week we could see a lower scoring game.  These are two slower paced teams Oregon is 75th, while Oregon State is 125th in pace.  Oregon has the match up with their rushing attack which ranks 2nd, going up against a poor Oregon State run defense, but without Bo Nix being 100% healthy it clearly impacts their running game or at least did a week ago against a bad Utah run defense.  Oregon State’s run defense has been better at home and they have held their opponents to 17, 17, 10, 9, and 10 points in home games.  Their red zone defense has been elite allowing only 25% TD’s at home, 50% overall.

Oregon’s defense has had its struggles, but those have come against the pass.  Their run defense although not a birk wall rnaks 42nd in epa.  I think Oregon State can find some success running the ball, but it will be methodical drives.  Oregon ranks 17th in explosive defense allowed, and since Oregon State is 125th in pace that means we should see some long drives in this one.  Oregon’s defense also very good in the red zone allowing just 40% TD rate in conference play.

Wisconsin -3 -115 4% play

Wisconsin not having their typical season, but Jim Leonard has a chance to win the Battle of the Axe game and secure the HC job.  This Wisconsin team has struggled on the road this season going just 2-3, and suddenly their 1 point escape at Nebraska looks a bit better as Nebraska upset Iowa on the road last night.  Wisconsin has won games when they win the passing game.  Graham Mertz has had a decent season 19-9 TD to INT ratio, but 12-2 in Wisconsin’s wins.  He has to have a good game here, and I believe he will against a tough defense.  While Minnesota is defense has been stout, I think there is a bit of noise in their #’s.  When you look at their top 25 run defense it has faced an average epa run offense ranking 100th.  Their 59th epa pass defense has faced an average 88.6 pass offense.  Their defense lacks an ability to get pressure on the QB ranking 87th in sack rate, but even worse on the road ranking 109th with a 3.94% sack rate and they rank 119th on passing down sack rate.

For Minnesota’s offense they are completely one dimensional running nearly 70% of the time.  They are very good at running the ball, but Wisconsin is 25th in 1st down defense, they are 3rd against the run in ypc, and 7th in epa.  This is a solid run defense, and they are even better at home.  Minnesota’s rushing attack is -1.2 ypc on the road vs. home, and their run defense is -1.04 ypc on the road and home.  Really easy to handicap Minnesota football their 4 losses have been against top 50 run defenses.   Purdue ranked 48th, Illinois ranked 12th, Penn State 16th, and Iowa 8th.  Wisconsin is the best of the bunch, and playing at home with motivation for Jim Leonard to retain the job and get the Axe back. 

Kentucky -144 3.5% play

Kentucky fully motivated at home against Louisville here looking to avoid a 3 game losing streak overall and at home.  They want to get to a better bowl game, Will Levis needs to have a good game against a good defense, and I think he’s fully capable.  I still value the SEC over most conferences, but definitely over the ACC, which is only 5-14 vs. the SEC -10.1ppg since 2020.  Louisville just has not been a good road team under Satterfield.  They are 2-3 this season with losses at BC, Syracuse and Clemson.  They’re 6-13 over the last 4 years.

Micale Cunningham is likely to go in this game and Kentucky will have to stop him from taking the game over.  I think they can do that against Florida’s Anthony Richardson they held him to 4 rushing yards, which is still his season low and held Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker to 23 yards on 10 carries and Missouri’s Brady Cook to 17 yards.  All 3 of those guys are 500+ yard rushers.  In his last two games against Kentucky Cunningham has 22 carries for only 62 yards.  I think we are getting value here because Kentucky has lost two in a row including a game against Vanderbilt.  Kentucky was clearly looking ahead to their home game against Georgia in that Vanderbilt game.  The reason I’m playing the money line is I feel it offers more value in a game that should be tight.  Kentucky for whatever reason doesn’t want to let Levis go, and continues to run the ball even though they are not good at it.  They also rank 129th in seconds per play so possessions will be limited

Georgia STate +7 -120 2.5% play 

Georgia State 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, a role they are more than fine playing in.  They’ll make the trip to Marshall for the first time, and with 7 losses have nothing to play for, but I would argue their senior leadership on offense and defense have something to play for, their LAST GAME.  This was a team that really was supposed to be better, and had leads in games that proved that, last week they were up 20 vs. James Madison for instance, they also held a big lead against Coastal Carolina.  Marshall’s offense is not good enough to mount any type of comeback if we see something similar here today. 

Marshall’s offense is build on the run 59% of their plays are run plays.  They’ll face Georgia State who is very good against the run ranking 50th epa run defense.  Marshall when playing a top run defense is just 2-3 averaging 17ppg, and their two wins were more to do with the fact that they were +5 to margin.  Actually, Marshall +13 to margin in their wins -5 in their losses.  Georgia State ranks 55th in % of possessions ending in a OT, and on defense rank 8th at forcing them.

Marshall’s defense has been the story for this team as they rank 14th in ypp, 11th in ypc and they have overcome a historically bad offense for Marshall ranking 101st n ypp, 1026th in epa passing offense 120th in epa run offense.  Georgia State is 3-1 vs. teams with bad offenses this year.  Georgia State defense is more than capable of holding their own in this game.  Georgia State’s offense is going to throw a running QB at them, which is something they really haven’t seen this year.  They faced Lafayette’s up-tempo offense with somewhat of a running QB and lost 13-23, while the QB ran for 45 yards. 

Arkansas -3.5 3.3% play 

Arizona / Arizona St Over 66 2.2% play

I think this total is compressed just a little bit after both teams just got done play two top 50 defense in their last two games.  I lean to the Arizona State side as the dog as they have the better pass defense, but they are on the road and when they have face da top 50 offense this year they have given up 42, 38, 50, and 31 points.  Arizona plays fast and should be able to get into the 30's with their excelent QB play and trio of receivers. 

Both of these teams are pass first teams, which typically lends itself to overs.  Arizona State should have plenty of success offensively as Arizona State when facing a top 80 offense has given up 30+ points in 7 of 8 games. So I do expect both teams to get into the 30's and probably even the 40's for this game.  Arizona has given up 39 or more points in 6 of the 8 games they have faced a top 80 offense.

We also have two top 50 explosive offenses going up agianst two non top 90 explosive defenses so expect to see plenty of fireworks with perfect weather, two pass first teams, and two defenses that are outside the top 100 at getting to the QB.  A rivalry game which means a lot, but no bowl game on the line. 

Tulane +1.5 3.3% play

The winner will host the AAC Championship Game.  Two things beat Tulane this year.  Giving up a ton of rushing yards, and turning the ball over.  Cincinnati really struggles running the ball this year 89th in ypc, 95th in EPA and have struggled more of late.  They also could be without their starting QB who is ? for this game and if he does play won’t be 100%.  Tulane is 4-0 on the road this year with a very impressive win at Kansas State on their resume, which they should be able to draw confidence from to end Cinci’s 32 game home streak.

Last year’s Cinci team was so much better than this year according to the #’s, and it was a 14-12 game with Tulane at the half.  Tulane had 5 turnovers in the game, and I don’t really anticipate that happening this year as they rank 19th in TO%, and Cinci really hasn’t forced turnover like last year as they lost two starting NFL CB’s.  Cinci’s offense really could be worse they have faced an average 96.2 ypp offense, and only 2 top 75 ypp defense, with one of them being Miami Ohio.  The other one was UCF who they lost 21-25 to.  At the end of the day I think Tulane is more balanced team especially on offense as they rank 35th in ypc, and 23rd in QB rating.  They rank 42nd in success rate compared to Cinci 88th ranking, and that’s against a tougher group of success rate defenses.  Their red zone TD% is +19.19% compared to Cinci -6.98. 

Baylor +8.5 2.2% play 

Texas is just 2-4 this season off a straight up win, and I don’t get the love for them in this spot or on the season.  Texas has to run the ball to win the game and run it well to win by margin.  They have 6ypc in wins and 3.95 in their losses, and the same was true last year.  Baylor is a good run defense ranking 41st in epa run defense.  Texas just 2-2 vs. top 50 run defenses, one was a win over G5 UTSA, and the other a 3 point win at home to Iowa State.

Texas could win, and get a Kansas State loss and get into the conference championship, but if anything that’s a distraction for this team, while Baylor will be plenty motivated to play spoiler to their in state rival.  Baylor is 2-3 vs. top rushing attacks, but they have 1 loss by 6 OT to BYU at elevation earlier in the year.  They lost by 1 to TCU, and 28 to Kansas State.  Could very easily be 4-1.  This has been a good road team all year long +6 TO margin on the road, which makes sense to why they’ve played well.  I think they can hang around in this one as Baylor also has a top pass defense ranking 49th, and Ewers has yet to show that he is any type of threat.

Texas / Baylor Under 56 2.2% play

A lot of this is related to wehater and the gneral style of play between these two teams that are run first.  I also don't see Sark letting his QB lose this game with a spot in the Big !12 Championship on the line (Need Kansas State loss).  Check out my 2% play on the side.

Miss State +110 3% play

I think the time is finally right for Mike Leach to win the Egg Bowl.  I think the biggest problem for this team this year has been the drops from the WR, and when you throw it 70% that’s a big deal, but if they are ever going to have a good game where they’re going to sacrifice their bodies or man up and catch with their hands I would think it would be in this rivalry game.  For Ole Miss, I don’t know where their heads are at.  We faded them last week against Arkansas, because they just lost their dreams of getting to the SEC Championship the week before and it was an Arkansas blow out.  It’s questionable that they can bounce back from that, but now there are rumors of Lane Kiffin heading to Auburn.  Regardless if Kiffin denies it to his players it’s something that has to be factored in here and the only way to factor it in is a negative for Ole Miss.

Last year Miss State outgained Ole Miss 420 to 388 but lost the game 31-21, because they failed in the red zone going 2-6.  Last year’s team was +3% in red zone differential and this year’s team is much better at +22%.  Ole Miss defense while it’s gotten better has struggled more in the red zone vs. last year.  Ole Miss strength on paper is vs. the pass, but against the 4 top 50 passing offenses they went 1-3, and their lone win against Kentucky should have been a loss.  Kentucky had two fumbles in Ole Miss territory, and really should have won that game.  Miss State also should have advntages here on first down as Ole Miss ranks 91st in first down defense, which will help the momentum for this offense. 

Miss State also enjoys big edge on special teams something they did not have last year as they rank 6th compared to Miss State 78th ranking. Ole Miss also has a turnover issue ranking 104th in % of possessions ending in a TO.  Ole Miss loves to run the ball 60%+ time, and they’re very good at doing it, but even though Miss State’s run defense has struggled they’ve come up with wins against top rushing offense beating Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Auburn, while losing to LSU and Alabama a pair of top 10 teams is nothing to be upset about.  At the end of the day these are two teams very similar.  Miss State played the tougher schedule with Georgia/Kentucky in their cross over games, while Ole Miss had Vanderbilt/Kentucky.

Ball State +3 -120 3% play

These are two even teams on paper, and both playing for a lot tonight.  The winner becomes bowl eligible and the loser goes to 7 losses.  Ball STate is the better team against hte better competition.  Their YPP differnetial is -0.2 vs. ypp diff of -0.07, while Miami Ohio is -0.5 vs. -0.59.  Miami Ohio 1-2 at home in the MAC, while Ball State is 2-1 on the road, and played right with Toledo recently.  I think this will be a close game.  4 of Ball States losses have been against teams who have top 50 offenses, while Miami Ohio is 113th in ypp vs. an average opponent of 85.3.  Ball State also -7 to margin in their losses +2 in their wins, and Miami OHio's defense really doesn't force turnovers they are 86th in that category and are actually -2 TO margin at home.  Ball State is a pass first offense, and Miami Ohio's defensive strength is stopping the run.  Red Zone play here will also be important and Miami OHio has really struggled on offense in that category.  I think Ball State should have a shot to win this game, but it will be close. buying the half poitn is well worht the 10-15 cents you will pay here given the importance of this game and the low total of 45.

Utah State -1 2.2% play

Two teams heading in opposite directions right now.  Utah State has Boise State on deck and this is the game they have circled to win and get bowl eligible and I think they’ll do it.  San Jose State looks like they can’t attack the weakness of this Utah State defense, which is their run defense as they rank 113th in rushing ypc, while pass defense ranks 14th, and San Jose State will look to pass the ball 60% of the time, but it will be tough sledding against Utah State in well below freezing conditions for the kids from California.  I think the team on the field that wants this one more is clearly going to be Utah State and it will make all the difference in the world in a tight game.

USC -2 3.3% PLAY

Seems like almost everyone is on UCLA or giving out UCLA.  I understand they have an edge running the ball and USC just lost Travis Dye, but this UCLA team is not the typical team that beats Lincoln Riley.  Typically the team that beats Lincoln Riley has a dominant defense, and UCLA rnaks 107th in success rate defense, 81st in epa pass, 86th in epa run.  I understand USC is not any better on defense, but I think their offense more than makes up for it here.  USC offensive stats are elite and that has come without Jordan Addiosn and Mario Williams in some games, boht return here at WR, which is where the UCLA defense is very questionable.  UCLA defensive front also ranks 68th in sack %, which just is not good enough to get to Caleb Williams.  USC on the other hand ranks 19th, and could cause TO that is key in this game.  USC is also the better third down team, better red zone team, better TO margin team, and special teams.  There is no home field advantage here and should be 50-50 for both teams.  USC will keep their hopes at a playoff birth alive. 

Arkansas +3 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD

Arkansas really needs a win here to make sure they get to a bowl game and they will be getting healthy just in time with KJ Jefferson taking all the reps in practice, RT Dalton Wagner back after missing the LSU game as well as one of the leaders of the defense in Myles Slusher.  Ole Miss in a dream crushing spot here after losing to Alabama they also lost the ability to win the SEC West and have the Egg Bowl on Friday on deck.  This is a tough situation for Ole Miss going on the road to play at Arkansas at night.  Arkansas has faced the tougher schedule, and a lot of their statistics are compressed with the health of KJ Jefferson.  This was a 1 point loss at Ole Miss last year for Arkansas as they rushed for 350 yards, and remember that game.  KJ Jefferson is from the state of Mississippi and unfortunately could not play against Miss State.

Auburn / Wkty Under 54 2.2% play 

Kentucky/ Georgia Under 48 3.3% play 

Southern Miss +7.5 2.2% play / Southern Miss +255 0.2% bonus

I'm not buying into South Alabama here as an 8-2 team.  Other than UCLA and Troy who they both lost to they have not played a team with a winning record.  Southern Miss is 5-5 fighting for a bowl game on Senior Day at The Rock.  Speaking of a rock, the Southern Miss defense is a rock, ranking top 50 in many categories, they are good agaisnt the run ranking 29th in epa, and good agaisnt the pass ranking 37th in epa, and rank 15th in success rate.  Actually they have the better defense from a success rate perspective and against a tougher schedule.  South Alabama's offense looks better than it really is.  The two times they stepped up to play a defense similar to Southern Miss caliber they won at Lafayette 20-17, no big deal Southern Miss beat Lafayete 39-24 at home, and they put up 6 points in a loss to Troy at home.  South Alabama has really struggled passing the ball on the road and they'll be going up agaisnt the #9 pass rush form Southern Miss.  

South Alabama could sell this as a game that matters to get into the mix in the Sun Belt, but the reality is Troy is going to be 2+TD favorites in each of their last two games.  South Alabama's defense is legit no doubt about it, but the spread is 7.5 points for a reason.  I think at home this team can hang tough and be in this game bc of thier defense.  It's a lot of points for a top 50 defense at home fighting for bowl eligibility so I'll take the +7.5 and put a bit on that ML at +255

Iowa +8.5 /Baylor +8.5 3.3% Teaser of the week.

Baylor – Dave Aranda 5-0 ATS as a dog vs. top 15 teams.  I just don’t want to fade TCU who only has to win this game on the regular spread, but getting Baylor up over 3 and 7 points is really attractive.  Baylor also has massive revenge it was a 2 point loss at TCU that arguably kept them out of the college football playoff, and now they’ll get to play spoiler here for TCU who has all the pressure.  We have seen these teams go down before when they are feeling the pressure. There is a reason a 10-0 team is just a 2.5 point favorite on the road against a 6-4 team.

Iowa – The total here is 32.5 points.  I honestly don’t know who will win this game, but it should be by one possession either way.  Iowa in the dog role is exactly what we like to see and Hawkeyes for whatever reason have owned Minnesota, going 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.  Think the value here on the teaser is great.

Navy +16.5 3.3% play 

Nobody knows about running the ball and stopping the run more than a service academy.  They also play in a lot of tight games because they shorten the game with the clock always going and being the slowest in the nation in pace.  When we get another team on the other side that also runs the ball >55% of the time it means it’s really hard to beat a service academy by more than 2TD’s.  In fact since 2005 Service Academy’s when catching 14 or more points since 2005 are 41-22-2 ATS.  Since 2018 they have lost 23 times against a team that runs the ball more than 55% of the time.  Only 2 occasions out of those 23 games did they lose by 17 or more.  The rest of the 21 losses were all close coming by an average of 7.09 ppg.

Navy has drastically improved this year, and they are getting it done by being excellent at stopping the run ranking 14th in epa, and I think they have an excellent chance to stay within this number on Saturday at the Bounce House.  This is an early 11am kickoff, and that is the kickoff time I’d prefer backing a service academy.  Meanwhile UCF is off their biggest win of the season a road win at Tulane.  UCF got beat by Navy last year as a 14.5 point favorite, and Navy’s #’s are actually better this year as far as their running game 64th in ypc vs. last year’s 83rd, and UCF’s run defense is worst this year 84th, vs. last year’s 71st ranking.  On the flip side UCF’s rushing offense about the same 12th this year vs. 19th last year, but Navy has improved from 57th to 16th.  They outgained UCF on the ground a season ago 348 to 148, and while I’m not calling for a similar mismatch this should be a closely contested game.  UCF is 99th in third down defense to boot, and Navy has a QB that’s capable of hitting a couple of explosive plays down field.  

Tulane -3.5 2.2% play

Tulane can still get to the conference title game if they win out. I don’t see a let down spot here at all hosting SMU as the solo game Thursday night in college football.  They have to take care of business on a short week and having back to back home games compared to back to back road games for SMU is a huge advantage.  SMU has not been very good on the road this year, and SMU 0-3 vs. top 50 defenses, 0-4 vs. top 50 pass defenses, and Tulane has both, including a top 50 EPA run defense, which should give SMU some issues.  SMU needs to run the ball to set up the pass as they average 5.26ypc in their wins and just 3.18 in their losses.  They also convert 55% of their third downs in their wins and only 36% in their losses.  Tulane has the #15 third down defense.

Tulane is 4-1 vs. top 50 offenses, and are the better team here.  They also have an edge on the coaching staff which should benefit them in the short week with Fritz over Lashlee.  I think Tulane is poised to bounce back from the loss against UCF, and win big on Thursday night.  I don’t worry about the hook here as much with a total in the 60’s.  SMU’s defense is also one of the worst defenses so expect Tulane to be able to really control this game throughout.  Tulane faces 120th ranked epa run defense, and 85th ranked epa pass defense.

California +14 5.5% NCAAF POD

There is a lot to like getting double digits here.  First of all Oregon state is a one dimensional offense that relies heavily on the running game, and their offense runs at an extremely slow pace 128th in seconds per play in the country.  To win by double digits they will have to have a significant advantage, but I don't see that as the case as Cal ranks 49th in rushing defense and that has come against a 53rd ranked ypc offense on average.  So.. Oregon State is going to have to force turnovers, but they rank 83rd in % of opponent possessions ending in a TO, while Cal ranks 12th in turning the ball over.  Cal given up on their season? No, Cal has been fighting hard to get to bowl and played well against USC and Oregon their last two games.

Cal also has played in tight games with Oregon State each of the last 3 seasons losing 2 by 4 points, and winning 39-25 last year.  I think their offense can have some success here particularly running the ball against Oregon State who ranks 106th in epa run defense.  Cal's Jack Plummer was the starting QB a season ago at Purdue to open the year up and had one of his best games against Oregon State.  Cal's offense has been stopped because their offensive line has struggled at times, but Oregon State's defensive line ranks 121st in sack %, and 124th in power success rate.  Justin Wilcox also 16-5 ATS as a road dog.

Wake Forest -4 2.2% play

A little value here on Wake when you consider they just played 2 of the best 3 defenses in the ACC and turned the ball over 11 times both games on the road now they go back home at night with a chance to play spoiler to North Carolina's hype.  North Carolina's wins on the road in conference have come against Miami, Duke and Virginia all by 3.  Giving up lost of points and yards.  I think Wake Forest will be able to do whatever they want here as North Carolina ranks 120th in sack %, 103rd in third down defense, 112th at forcing turnovers, 111th in epa run defense 103rd in epa pass defense. Drake Maye has been spectacular, and I thnk he'll get plenty of yards here, but I think Wake wins this by a TD. 

Texas Tech -3.5 3.3% play

Kansas is bowl eligible so I’m thinking a bit of a let down here against Texas Tech as Kansas was seen celebrating with their win against Oklahoma State who played without many of their players.  Kansas defensively really struggles vs fast paced teams.  They gave up and lost to Oklahoma 42-52, against TCU 31-38.  Texas Tech is the #2 pace team in the country, and the best defense of those 3 teams.  I think Tech will have success offensively as they’re facing Kansas who ranks 100th in qb defense and 110th epa pass defense and 121st in success rate.  Texas Tech’s defense has been solid against the run, which is what Kansas wants to do here ranking 46th in epa run defense.  Their pass defense also in the top 50 in epa.  If you can believe it this is the best defense that Kansas has played all year form an EPA perspective.  Baylor ranked 30th in epa run defense against an average opponent offense ranking 60th.  Tech ranks 46th, but vs. an average offense ranking 46th, and Baylor’s pass defense ranked 53rd in epa against an average opponent ranking 59th.  Tech ranks 42nd vs. an average opponent ranking 40th.  Tech is also 23rd in success rate defense against an average SR offense ranking 41st.  This is a team hungry for a win at home where they are 3-1, and I expect one of their best performances.  

Miss State +16.5 3.3% play

Leach is 16-7 ATS as a double digit dog, and this is a let down game for Georgia after back to back huge victories over Florida and then #1 Tennessee last week.  Miss State 5-0 at home 1-3 on the road.  Georgia’s defense not as good as a season ago, but after last weeks’ big time win against Tennessee they are getting credit for being that good.  This Georgia team does not get a pass rush, which is a necessity against Miss State’s pass first scheme.  The other weakness for this Georgia team is their TO margin, which if you want to win big on the road you are going to need to create some turnovers especially when you play at a slow pace 112th in the country.   This is only Georgia’s 3rd road game and the last time they faced a good pass defense on the road they struggled to win at Missouri.  Miss State ranks 11th in epa pass defense, 35th in overall success rate defense, and should have more success on offense than Missouri had.  This is the worst spot of the year for Georgia, and we are getting well over 2 TD’s.   Lastly, an inexperienced Will Rogers torched this Georgia defense in 2020 on the road throwing for 336 yards on 41-52.  He’s much better now and Miss State has one of the more under appreciated home field advantages.  I see Georgia winning a very close game.

South Carolina +8.5 2.2% play

I don’t see how Florida is this much better than South Carolina here.  Florida looked really impressive against the Aggies last week, but the flu hit Texas A&M hard and they were much less than 100%.  I think that may be inflating this number just a tad.

The key for South Carolina success has always ben the ability to establish their running game.  South Carolina should be able to establish the run here as Florida ranks 119th in ypc defense, and 112th in epa run defense.  Not that South Carolina has a great running game, but when they rush for over 100 yards this season they are 5-0 this season and 10-1 dating back to last year.  It will also help the offense that Florida’s pass defense is no better and they rank 100th at QB sack %.  Rattle rhas not been great, but this is one of his easier tasks thus far facing a defense that ranks 118th in success rate, and 113th in yards per play.  Reading the tea leaves I believe and it sounds like the team catalyst MarShawn Lloyd will return at RB.  He practiced this week, and was able to rest the “deep bruise” by not playing against Vanderbilt.

Army/Troy Under 46 2.2% play

Army fresh off their disappointing loss to Air Force has to go back on the road to face an elite Troy team.  This Troy defense has been a top 20 defense against the pass and run, and their defensive staff has a ton of experience around the option.  DC Shiel Wood spent the last two seasons at Army, and before that he coached at Georgia Tech under Paul Johnson.  Army’s defense really has struggled since he left as they rank 121st in ypp this season.  The defensive line coach for Troy also spent time at Army and I love the Troy head coach in Jon Sumrall from the Stops tree at Kentucky.  This team is a defensive minded team, and they play slow while Army plays slow.  I expect a very low scoring game here.  While Army’s defense has struggled they just got back their best defensive player last game, and have played 3 top 20 pace teams.  In those games they gave up 41, 31, and 45 points.  They faced Air Force and Monroe and gave up 24 and 13 points.  Troy plays at the 97th pace in the country and is not the type to want to run the score up.

Louisville +7 2.2% play

This was a battle last year that Clemson found to win late.  There really isn’t anything different with this years Clemson team vs. last year’s Clemson team.  Maybe the defense is worse?  They have no confidence at QB, and I believe that will continue here.  Louisville, a far better defense than a season ago, and playing with a ton of confidence right now.  They rank 32nd in ypc defense, and 25th in EPA run defense, and that has come against 57th ranked run defense.  Clemson ranks 44th, vs average opponent 81, and Notre Dame with a  one dimensional attack absolutely dominated them a week ago.  Louisville can get to the QB here ranking 3rd in sack %, and #1 in forcing turnovers per possession in the country.  IF Clemson can’t run for 200 yards I’m not sure how they are supposed tow in by a TD here.  This will be a tightly contested game that MIcale Cunningham and this Louisville team will have every chance to win.

Alabama / Ole Miss Over 64.5 3.3% play 

South Florida +17.5 2.2% play

We backed Houston last week against this SMU team, and while they outgained SMu 710 to 642, they gave up 77 points and lost by 14.  Now SMU goes on the road to face South Florida who just fired their head coach, a 1 win South Florida team, and SMU has a major look ahead to Tulane next Thursday night.  South Florida also has a match up advantage here as they rank 22nd in ypc rushing offense, run the ball 56% of the time, and are 105th in pace going up against SMU who is 121st in ypc defense, 121st in epa run defense.  I think the approach is to slow this game down, and not turn the ball over.  Also expect a locker room morale boost, buy low situation, and some new scheme that SMU has not seen yet that could allow South Florida to cover this game.  South Florida played within this number against several better teams including Florida, Cincinnati, and Tulane.

Arkansas +3.5 3.3% play

I’ve given Arkansas out as a dog a few times now since Sam Pittman took over and they have rarely let me down.  KJ Jefferson is probable for this game, and I don’t think he will have issues with pain during the game.  This is a huge rivalry game and the Battle of the Golden Boot.  LSU will be going for a win to clinch the SEC West as long as Alabama beats Ole Miss, but I think they are going to have their hands full with Arkansas.

LSU coming off a massive upset of Alabama at home, and I just think they are in a rough spot here playing in just their 3rd road game overall.  Arkansas has a top 50 pass rush, and that’s the one area that LSU has struggled, protecting the QB ranking 115th in sack % allowed.  They faced a top 50 pass rush on the road in Auburn and were trailing 17-0 late in the second before Auburn blew that game and could not score in the second half.  Arkansas is a far better team, and has a far better offense that can run and pass the ball.  This should keep the LSU defense on its toes here, especially the running game.  Arkansas run 61% of the time, and have mobile QB.  LSU has given up 56 yards rushing on only 10 carries to Hendon Hooker, and 109 vs. Anthony Richardson on only 9 carries. KJ Jefferson is also a capable passer with a top 25 EPA pass offense.  Arkansas is also desperate for a win having lost to Liberty in their last game they need a win to lock up a spot in a bowl game.

Purdue +7 -120 3% play

Illinois played two teams who were pass first offenses, that also could stop the run on defense, and they lost both of those games.  Losing on the road to Indiana and at home to Michigan State a week ago.  Purdue features an epa run defense that ranks 17th, while they pass the ball over 60% of the time.  Illinois pass defense ranks 4th in epa, but a look at the passing offenses they have faced reveals an ugly truth.  On average they have faced a 86.75 passing rank.  I think we are getting Purdue at a great price here mostly because they are off two losses and a 24-3 throttling against Iowa, but they were throwing in 30mph winds, a game that clearly benefitted Iowa and not Purdue.  Today’s forecast shows 10mph winds, with no precipitation and Purdue’s offense should have a better go of it.  There is a lot on the line here Illinois leads all at 4-2 in the Big Ten West, and a 4 way tie behind them.  Purdue needs a tie breaker win with Illinois to have a chance.  This is a Big Ten elimination game for Purdue and I expect their best effort.  Jeff Brohm has been outstanding as an away dog throughout his career and this is the type of spot I’d like to back him. They’ve been a good road team this year winning at Minnesota and Maryland as a dog, should have beaten Syracuse earlier in the year, and failed at Wisconsin a team that has just owned Jeff Brohm.

I think Tulsa is the more desperate team for a win, and there is nothing special about this Memphis team.  We backed Memphis last week against UCF and it was a great match up for their pass first scheme, but there were multiple coaching decision in that game that not only cost Memphis the game, but the cover.  Tulsa’s head coach Phillip Montgomery in my opinion is the better head coach and I think he’ll have his team ready to make a run for a bowl game much like last year when they won 3 straight to get to a bowl.  Montgomery is 22-8 ATS at Tulsa as an away dog, and over the last 3 years he is 15-7 ATS vs. conference opponents, 11-4 ATS off a straight loss.  Meanwhile Memphis under Ryan Silverfield just 3-10 ATS as a home favorite at Memphis, 6-15 ATS vs. conference, and 5-7 ATS following a loss.

The match up really comes down to Davis Brin playing.  He injured his non-throwing shoulder, but has been practicing with so much on the line I would be a little surprised to see him not play, but that will just mean the rest of the team steps up.  Montgomery, “We have to scratch and claw and find a way to win.”  This team has not given up they have confidence form last year.  I think the offense has success whomever is out there at QB as Memphis is 101st in epa pass defense, 119th in sack %, which should allow the young Tulsa offensive line to have more success.  Tulsa’s defensive strength is vs. the pass, which is what Memphis wants to do, and I highly doubt they’ll run the ball here more tonight.  Take out sacks, and their QB Hennigan is their leading rusher.  They played a very physical game against UCF last week.

Tulsa also the team that takes care of the ball better.  Memphis ranks 118th in % of possessions ending in a TO, while Tulsa ranks 2nd.  Tulsa also has an edge in red zone TD percentage and I feel like 7 points is just too much for a team that is very motivated.  I think the short week benefits the better coach and that coach is Montgomery.

Kent State -2 2.2% play 

Let’s talk strength of schedule. Kent State’s road games this year @ Toledo best team in the MAC, @Georgia, @Washignton, @Oklahoma, and at Miami Ohio (better statistically than Bowling Green).  Bowling Green at 5-4 wins here and they get to a bowl game for the first time in 7 years, but they do have another opportunity on deck with Ohio, while Kent State at 3-6 does not.  This is the game for Kent State, because they need to start getting wins, and looking at Bowling Green’s resume it’s not that impressive.  Their wins have been against three 3 win teams in the MAC, a 1-9 Akron team, and a down Marshall team that has a horrible offense and they still gave up 31 points and were +3 TO margin and only won that game by 3.

Kent State surely has a match up advantage with their running game which ranks 51st in ypc, and 42nd in epa going up against Bowling Green’s 99th ranked run defense and 92nd in epa.  Bowling Green struggled against the two run first fast paced teams they faced this year giving up 45 and 31 points.  The Bowling Green’s defensive strength does not align here as they are excellent vs. the pass ranking 43rd in epa, and have a 12th ranked pass rush, but Kent State fairly good considering the level competition they have faced ranking 64th in sack % allowed, and again Kent State will want to run the ball here, and should have some success.  They also have an edge on special teams ranking 26th vs. 79th, and they haven’t turned the ball over much ranking 27th in % of possessions ending in a TO.  I’ll take the team that is more desperate for a win that has the extra day of preparation.  Sean Lewis is a good coach, and I expect they’ll get a big win here tonight.

Clemson -3.5 3.3% play 

Houston +3.5 2.2% play

Tons of tickets and money on SMU bringing this up over the key # of 3.  I actually think Houston is the better team, and they have played in tons of close games already.  They really don’t have a bad loss on their schedule, and while their opponents have an average -0.4 ypp, that’s distorted by South Florida’s -1.7, as well as the fact that 6 of their 8 opponents had tough schedules of + opponent yards per play, while SMU who on the surface has faced an average oppy pp +0.62, much tougher than Houston, but those opponents on average have had a very weak schedule.  I was not impressed with SMU vs. Cinci, where we got a very lucky back door cover.  I think these teams are very similar pass first offenses, with veteran QB’s, but Clayton Tune has been very good on the road, and adds the running dynamic that Mordedai does not.  Mordecai also more turnover prone, and coming back from an injury.  Houston’s pass defense seems to also be better ranking 36th in epa compared to 83rd for SMU, and they’re better on third downs, and have a slightly better rushing offense, but far better run defense as SMU ranks 124th in EPA run defense to Houston’s 76th ranking. 

Tenn +8 3.3% play

It’s clear that Tennessee’s defense has improved from last year, and Georgia’s defense has taken a small step back that has gone really unnoticed to this point.  Josh Heupel’s offenses have had success against Kirby Smart’s defenses in the past putting up 27 points in 2016 at Missouri, and 28 in 2017, and while Tennessee only scored 17 that was a Georgia defense that was one of the best in the past 25 years. 

Georgia’s pass defense will be the key here they rank 3rd, but they have faced an average opponent pass offense ranking 83rd.  They are 119th in sack % and just lost their leading sack player for the season.  Kent State, which runs a similar up tempo offense that relies on spacing had a lot of success against Georgia and it was a 32-22 game with 6 minutes to play.  Alabama in the SEC Championship caught Georgia off guard and ran up-tempo and put 41 points on the defense.  I think Tennessee’s offense has taken the next step under Heupel and I think they have another big day on offense.

Defensively Tennessee has been a rock against the run, which is exactly what Georgia typically relies on.  Stetson Bennett is not the type of guy going to win you the game, and he doesn’t have the receiving threats at WR he had last year.  Most of their offense comes via the TE group.  Tennessee got a little healthier last week in the secondary and it definitely showed as they had their best defensive performance of the season against a very good Kentucky offense behind Will Levis, who was running a top 25 passing offense.  I think this is going to be a very entertaining game, and I feel like even though public money is on Tennessee we will see them cover here and possibly shock Georgia and win outright.

Memphis +3.5 5.5 % NCAAF POD

Memphis off the bye and Cincinnati in a huge sandwich spot after their huge victory over Cincinnati in what was a very physical game.  I felt Cinci’s game plan lacked a bit on offense and they should have thrown the ball to attack the weakness of UCF’s defense, which is their pass coverage.  UCF has Tulane the top ranked team in the AAC up next.  I think Memphis, a team with a very good passing game will be able to do that this week.  Memphis also a very good home team.  They lost back to back on the road to Tulane and East Carolina.  They had a 17-0 lead against East Carolina, and lost in OT, the same team that beat UCF 35-13.  Against Tulane they were -4 TO margin and gave up a 90 yard punt return. 

Aside from the spot that favors Memphis here. I actually like their match up as they are very similar to East Carolina.  A pass first offense with a very good QB, and a defensive strength against the run.  Memphis 28th in ypc defense, 27th in epa.  They also have a top 30 special teams unit just like East Carolina.  UCF could be without Plumlee in this game although I personally hope he starts coming off the concussion I don’t think he’ll be 100%, and I’ve said it before he’s a one dimensional QB, and Memphis has shown they can stop the run.  They’ll also have revenge on their mind after losing 24-7 on the road last year.  They played that game without Seth Henigan, and had 4 turnovers.  UCF’s defense ranks 128th in forcing turnovers this season.  Memphis has been a very good team at home dating back to last year playing in a lot of tight games.  I think this one goes down to the wire.

Georgia Tech + 3.5 3.3%

Georgia Tech has faced the far tougher schedule with Clemson, Ole Miss, and UCF in their non-conference compared to Virginia Tech’s Old Dominion, and West Virginia.  All 7 of Georgia Tech’s opponents are + in yards per play differential for an average +0.91, while Virginia Tech’s opponents are on average -.31.  With that said the statistical profile is not that different and I think Georgia Tech missing Jeff Simms in some games has been a big deal.  Simms was a full participant at practice and will play in this game and will be a huge difference maker as a mobile QB.  Virginia Tech has not faced a mobile QB all year long.  Simms had 60 rushing yards a season ago in this game. 

Blacksburg’s home field advantage when it’s not a night game is bit less.  This team also already has lost to West Virginia at home (not a good road team) by 23 points, and Miami.  They beat Boston College 27-10, but BC just got beat by Uconn last week and has been having a dreadful season.  Georgia Tech has beaten two decent teams in Duke and Pitt and if Simms played against Virginia they likely would have beaten them.

Georgia Tech has the better defense in my opinion due to strength of schedule, and their EPA #’s back that up.  Taking garbage time out Georgia Tech’s EPA pass defense ranks 27th, and their EPA run defense ranks 31st, while Virginia Tech ranks 63rd and 65th, and both have come against worse strength of schedule.  Virginia Tech is 0-3 the last 2 years when facing a team with a top 50 epa pass defense and epa run defense, and if a team has a top epa pass or epa run defense they have gone 2-10.  Georgia Tech has also taken better care of the ball ranking 6th in offensive turnover %, and their defense ranks 11th, while Virginia Tech ranks 66th and 120th.  With rain in the forecast and what looks like a defensive battle turnovers are going to play a key role.  The dog is 13-3 ATS the last 16 meetings.

Iowa +4.5 2.2% play

The weather is definitely not favoring Purdue in this one with 23mph winds, and 40 mph gusts and a 40% chance of rain for a pass first offense.  Iowa has struggled against Jeff Brohm who is 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS, but the average spread in those 5 meetings have been Iowa -7, and now Iowa is the dog of greater than a field goal.  This is the role I love to have Iowa in.  Iowa has a top 10 pass defense, and are able to force turnovers ranking 16th in defensive possessions ending in a TO, while Purdue ranks 131st in % of offensive possessions ending in a TO.  With the weather for this game it just falls into the hands of what Iowa wants to do.  Purdue also just 11-15 vs. top 50 pass defenses since 2018, while Iowa is 9-5 vs. pass first offenses since 2018.  Only 1 of those games did they lose by more than 4 points. 

Iowa also the better ypp differential if you can believe it they are +0.2 vs. an average opponent diff of +0.62, while Purdue is -0.6 vs. an average opponent +0.5.  Purdue’s defense also very banged up, but this should be a low scoring defensive game that Iowa just waits for Purdue to make a mistake.  I’ll take the Hawkeyes in this one as the road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Texas A&M -3 3.3% play

This is a huge must win game for the Aggies if they want to get to a bowl game.  This is only Florida’s second true road game of the season and they have lost their last 5 SEC road games.  I think the Aggies found something in their 5* freshman QB who had 338 passing yards against Ole Miss last week in their 28-31 loss.  He should have more success this week against Florida, and possibly even more as Florida’s defense is worse than Ole Miss.  Florida ranks 119th in epa run defense, 98th in epa pass defense, 131st in 3rd down defense, 95th in sack %.  This is another game for A&M’s offense to get right, while the Aggies defense has struggled themselves they have shown stretches of dominance, and overall rank 60th in ypp allowed compared to Florida’s 116th ranking.  So. I’ll take the better defense at home against a Florida offense that is one dimensional.  Ole Miss was a top 50 run offense and top 50 pass offense, while Florida ranks 112th in QB rating, 102nd in epa passing offense.  I think the Aggies defense has a better performance, and their offense should have a better performance as they get a big time win.

Maryland / Wisconsin Under 49.5 2.2% play

There are some 49.5 out there if you shop.  This play is based on the weather report of 20mph winds with 50mph gusts, which will impact both teams ability to throw the ball.  Expect a conservative game plan, and both defenses are top 30 against the run, which I'm expecting much more of in this game.  

Army/Airforce U40.5 2.2% play 

Oregon State +4.5 3.3% play

Oregon State has not been a good road team of late, but I think tha'ts why we are getting +4.5, and the bye definitely helps with traveling on the road, and they are helped by the fact that Jonathan Smith their HC is familiar with Washington as he coached here.  The Beavers are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 trips.  Oregon State upset Utah last year off their bye.

The weather is going to be a factor with wind and some rain.  It clearly benefits Oregon STate who is a 60% run team, and WAshington who is a 60% pass team.  It won't be as bad as originally thought, but still shoudl be an advantage for Oregon State. 

Oregon STate looks like the better team they are +0.8 ypp vs. -0.22 compared to Washington +0.6 vs. -0.27.  So they have the better #'s and against a slightly tougher schedule.  The matchup as far as similar opponents and how they did also favors Oregon State.  The 3 times they faced a top 50 passing offense, USC, Utah, and Washington State.  They lost to USC & Utah, but were -8 to margin in those games.  They held Washington STate to 10 points, and USC to 17 points, and only lost that game by 3.  Washington against a top 60 pass defense lost to UCLA and Arizona State.  They still got their points, but lost the game, and Oregon State's pass defense is the best they have faced.  UCLA also was able to run the ball on WAshington who on paper appears to be very good vs. the run ranking 18th in ypc, but looking at EPA run defense they are outside the top 50, and when we take out garbage time they rank 83rd in epa run defense, and that is against an average opponent that ranks 71st.  Their pass defense is one of the worst in the PAC 12 ranking 126th in epa. 

Oregon State's offensive line #'s are top 30 on average, while Washington's defensive line outside the top 80 in standard down rate, adjsuted line yards, and they rank 97th in 1st down defense, while Oregon STate ranks 23rd in 1st down offense. I think Oregon State can get ahead on the chains and really control this game. 

App STate -3 2.2% play

Huge strength of schedule discrepancy here as App State's top 3 oppnents are better than any of Coastal's opponents.  Coastal also only played 1 opponent with a +ypp differential and got beat 21-49 at home to Old Dominion who is +0.3 with an average opponent ypp diff of -0.15.  App State is also +0.3, but vs. an average opponent +0.17.  App State has a head scratching loss on their resume against Texas State, but Texas State top 50 run defense, Coastal ranks 80th in ypc defense, and 109th in qb rating defense.

Coastal lost a ton of talen from last year's team they still have their QB, and the offense has been dominant ranking 20th in ypp, but their average opponent defense ranks 92.42.  I think App State has a big advantage in the trenches here and won't be intimidated by Coastal Carolina considering they went on the road and beat TExas AM this year.  

Pitt +3 5.5% NCAAF POD

I have to put last week’s Pitt game behind me as it was our top play, and it’s usually a little difficult for me to get back to the window after a team burned me like Pitt did coming with 4 to’s at Louisville in my biggest play of the week, but not getting to the window the next week is a little square so here we are in a match up I like even more.  23-13 ATS, is Pat Narduzzi’s record following a SU loss.  For all the shit this guy gets he is a very solid coach.

North Carolina’s offense is sizzling, but the last time you want a team to go on a bye is when the offense and team is clicking, and that’s what we have here for Mac Brown’s Tarheels.  Mac Brown took over in 2019, and he’s 0-4 after the bye losing to Notre Dame the last two years, Virginia Tech and Pitt in 2019.  This offense really has not faced a good defense all year with the exception of Notre Dame, a game they put up a lot of garbage stats.  Notre Dame absolutely dominated that game, and the Irish have a very similar profile to Pittsburg in the fact that they want to run the ball, they want to play defense, and they rely on their QB to manage the game.  North Carolina since Brown took over when facing a top 50 ypp defense is only 2-9!   Their two wins came back in 2019, and were by only 3 points each against Miami and Duke.  Pitt at 4-3 still has everything to play for.

Pitt’s offensive troubles were two-fold last week at Louisville.  They could not protect their QB, and they really couldn’t get consistency and flow in their running game.  Despite running for more than 150 yards the team was just 4-11 on third down and had the 4 TO’s that cost them.  I don’t see the same thing happening here as they are facing a North Carolina defense that ranks 114th, in yards per play.  They rank 118th vs. the run, 116th vs. the pass, and have not show an ability to get pressure ranking 111th in sack %, 92nd in third down defense, and 112th in success rate.  Pitt is 2-0 when facing a bad defense this year, and 19-4 since 2018 when facing a non top 75 defense.  3 of those 4 losses by 3 or less points.  This team under Narduzzi just thrives in this type of a match up.  

Kentucky / Tennessee Over 62 3.3% play

This is a game I certainly lean Kentucky on the side, but I'm concerned with how fast Tennessee plays and gets out early in games.  I would rather play Kentuck +14 or higher in live action or play them 2nd half.  This was a back and forth game last year, and Kentucky's defense is not as good, while Will Levis and the passing game is better as Levis has taken the next step as a QB.  The weakness of this Tennessee defense is the pass defense, and Kentucky has the top NFL prospect at QB.  Kentucky can't possibly be that dumb to run the ball all game. I think they believe they have the better QB and are going to let Levis go at some point in this game.  I think Tennessee is going to get their points here and they play so fast this game was a 42-45 game last year, and I expect Levis and this offense to be passing the ball late with this game going over the total. 

UAB -4.5 2.2% PLAY

Straight fade of FAU who is now 9-18-1 ATS under Willie Taggart.  UAB could be without their starting QB here, but that won't matter as they run the ball 66% of the time rank 7th in ypc, going up against FAU who is 109th in ypc defense.  This play is more about the fact that FAU struggles when they face good defenses. UAB ranks 27th in ypp defense while FAU ranks 69th on offense, but FAU has faced an average 98th ranked ypp defense so this year they are even worse.  They would used to blow out the bad defenses on their schedules and struggle vs. good defenses, but this year they are even struggling vs. the bad to average defenses.  N'kosi Perry had 3 INT against UAB last year, and UAB ranks 26th in defensive TO percentage.  Look for UAB to control this game, and it doesn't help that FAU wants to play fast which makes this spread even more interesting.

Missouri +3.5 3.3% play

This will be a tight game in my opinion as Missouri is a top 20 defense ranking top 20 vs. the run and vs. the pass.  I don’t see how South Carolina gets points here to cover the spread as their offense is pretty bad and Spencer Rattler has been very underwhelming.  Missouri should have won at Florida, should have won at Auburn, and gave Georgia a dog fight.  South Carolina is now ranked #25, which is an absolute joke.  I understand they beat A&M last week, and beat Kentucky on the road, but those are fraudulent victories.  First of all A&M was down to their 3rd string QB last week and outgained South Carolina, who benefited from 100 yard kick off return and a 19 yd TD drive.  Kentucky was ravaged by injuries all over the place when South Carolina visited.  I have seen enough from Missouri’s defense to feel confident they’ll be in this game, and South Carolina is not a team I’m confident backing as a favorite.

Nebraska +7.5 2.2% play

I think this is nice spot for Nebraska who seemed to get a nice bump after their bye a few weeks ago, and here are getting another bye, meanwhile Illinois in a flat spot after 3 weeks in a row against tough opponents, Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota, where they were dogs in 2 of the 3.  This is also Illinois 3rd road game of the year, and they lost earlier against Indiana, the same team that Nebraska just beat 35-21 after their last bye.  I would argue that Illinois defense will finally be tested as Nebraska has some play makers that could give this defense fits starting with one of the best graded WR in the nation Trey Palmer.   While Illinois ranks 1st in qb pass defense they have faced the following passing offenses 101, 118, 119, 16, 121, and 76.  Nebraska checks in at #48, and is home for this game.

I still can’t completely trust and believe in Illinois QB, Tommy Devito, and Illinois ranks 100th in % of possessions ending in TO.  They are an easier offense to prepare for on extra prep and that’s what Nebraska has here.  Well over 65% of the tickets and money are on Illinois here this week, but I like their chances to be in this game throughout as Illinois is in a new role, as a ranked team playing on the road as a significant favorite, a role I don’t recall they have been in for a decade or more.

Cincinnati +2 3.3% play 

Gus Malzahn needs the running game for his offense to work.  It’s been no different at UCF where he’s just 1-5 vs. teams with a top 60 run defense.  UCF has an interesting dynamic at QB with Plumlee, but he’s a one dimensional player and it’s something a quality defensive minded coach like Fickel can scheme for.  Plumlee as a starter dating back to his 2019 season at Ole Miss is 0-8 vs. a top 60 run defense, and has just 4 passing TD’s to 7 interceptions.  Cincinnati definitely falls into that bucket as they rank 5th in defensive ypc, and while they have not been as dominant as last year I expect them to continue to get better.

Luke Fickel as an away dog is 9-4 ATS.  UCF relies heavily on explosive plays and Cinci’s defense is 10th in 20+ yard play percentage.  I faded Cinci last week, but that was due to the fact that the weakness on this defense is the secondary, and SMU was a capable passing team, and we were very lucky to come away with a cover despite the wind as we got a back door cover late.  This week I’ll be backing Cincinnati as a dog as I don’t think UCF is as good as they are getting credit for here.

Notre Dame +3 -120 4% play

Major let down spot for Syracuse after blowing a double digit lead against Clemson in a very phsyical game.  To make it worse they had a roughing the passer late in the game that really cost them the game.  I don't think they have much left for this game, and why did Sean Tucker only have 5 carries in the game?  I don't htink Tucker is completely healthy, and their QB Schrader carried the ball 21 times in a physical match up.  This is a noon kickoff for Syracuse and I think Notre Dame will be ready with their defense to make this a close game, and probably pull the upset.  I don't htink the ACC is very good this year, and in reality Syarcuse was benefits of a 90 yard fumble recover which was a 14 point swing, and they recovered another fumble in the red zone after a 21 yard run by Shipley so they really could have lost by double digits or more in this game. I think it's a lot to ask them to go back home and beat a phsyical Notre Dame team that had to play UNLV last week.

Iowa State +1.5 2.2% play

Iowa State 0-4 in Big 12 play, but their losses are by a total of 14 points, and I think they are on the right track with their 3 point loss to Texas as Hunter Dekkers played by far his best game, and will be aided by the fact that they are facing at eam who ranks 106th in ypc defense, and at home again. 

Oklahoma on the other hand are playing their toughest defense all season.  They are 0-3 when facing a top 50 run defense.  Iowa State ranks 10th in ypc defense, and 15th in third down defense.  I think we see a tight game, but I don’t see why Oklahoma is a favorite here.  These teams have played similar strength of schedules, but I’ll go with the far better defense catching points at home.  Matt Campbell is 6-3 ATS at Iowa State with extra preparation during the regular season and is 9-3-2 ATS as a home dog.

West Virginia +7.5 3.3% / West Virginia +240 0.3% play ML

TCU now off 5 straight games that have gone down to the wire with 4 of them being against top 20 opponents, and the 5th being against Sonny Dykes old team, SMU.  TCU now goes on the road to face West Virginia in a bit of a let down/sleepy spot, and it’s a spot that TCU has struggled losing 4 straight to West Virginia, and Sonny Dykes 1-10 ATS in his career on the road as a ranked team facing an opponent who is not ranked.  TCU has 3 Texas schools on their schedule ahead of this and the players can’t help but not take West Virginia seriously after they got beat by 38 points last week on the road to Texas Tech, but this is a team that has a very good home field advantage, and an early start is not going to help TCU who has gotten off to slow starts at times this season.

TCU defensive weakness is the pass defense.  They can’t get to the QB, and they rank 93rd in EPA pass defense, and that is despite knocking 3 starting QB’s out of games.  They were able to come back and beat Kansas State, but Kansas State was decimated by injuries in that game and was down to their third string QB at one point.  West Virginia is a pass first team, and JT Daniels when given time is a deadly passer.  West Virginia ranks 17th in sack % allowed, while TCU 82nd in sack %.  I think West Virginia will score some points, and their defense matches up well enough to keep this one within a TD.

TCU’s offense runs the spread, and they want to run first.  Their offense has looked amazing so far due to the play of Max Duggan, and the fact that they haven’t played many defenses.  Their rushing offense has faced an average run defense ranking 89.5.  That’s the one thing that West Virginia is good at stopping the run.  Also in his 3 starts vs. West Virginia Max Duggan has struggled big time going 47-91, 549 yards 1 TD and 5 interceptions.  This game will go to the wire.

BYU -3 3.3% PLAY

Can’t really compare the strength of schedules here.  East Carolina’s only P5 opponent was NC State to open the season, while BYU has faced Arkansas, Notre Dame, Oregon, Baylor, and then a very good Liberty team.  East Carolina also getting a bit more love than they should after beating UCF last week 34-13.  UCF likely looking ahead to this week’s game vs. Cincinnati and were -4 TO margin in the game.  This is a short week traveling to play at elevation, while BYU will be desperate for a win.  Should be a good game, but BYU has an excellent home field advantage.  Their only loss at home was against Arkansas at home.  Jaren Hall has been amazing at home in his career 24 passing TD’s and just 4 Int’s and will be going up against East Carolina pass defense that ranks 117th.  Perfect buy low / sell high situation here after BYU lost big on the road last week, and will be desperate for a win to get to bowl game this year.

Washington State +7 2.2% play

Statistically we have a pretty even match up as WAshington STate +0.2 yards per play vs. an average opponent +0.36, while Utah is +0.1 vs. average opponent +0.5.  Washington State has a very good home field advantage, in fact Utah has not won here since 2011. Both teams off a bye, but I think that favors Washington State a bit more considering they had struggles in their last 2 games where they were showing regression, but for what its worth both of those games were on the road where this team seems to struggle.

Utah really has not been great on the road, and I think their defense has taken a big step back in fact Washington State has the better defense, and the strength of the defense is agaisnt the run where they rank 35th in ypc, which matches up well against Utah.  Utah's defense ranks 111th in ypp, while Washington STate ranks 50th, and it's not like it's been against worse competition either.  Washington STate has faced USC and Oregon on their schedule and their average opponent ypp is 48th compared to Utah at 42.  

You are still paying a bit of a premium on Utah based off last year, and I don't think its warranted here.  Utah typically always had the better special teams as well, but that's not longer been the case they rank 108th in sepcail teams compared to Washington STate ranking 34th.  This is a Washington State team that beat Wisconsin on the road and held a double digit lead against Oregon at home.  

California +7.5 2.2% play

Cal was in a battle at Notre Dame losing 17-24, they came back home beat Arizona 49-31, then lost b2b road games with a bye in between.  The loss against Colorado is particularly head scratching as many believe Colorado to be the worst among Power 5 opponents.  Perhaps Cal and Wilcox was looking ahead to his former employer’s meeting with Washington?   They went 1-5 in the red zone for TD’s against Colorado.  The biggest issue for Cal is the play of their offensive line and that tends to be magnified on the road.  Here they come back home, and it’s not like this is the same Washington defense or defensive line as years past.  They rank 87th in standard down rate and 89th in stuff rate.  Cal just needs to stay out of predictable passing downs, and they should be successful on offense.

Washington’s defense ranks 124th in QB rating defense, 130th in third down defense, and when given time Jack Plummer has been very efficient, and this offense does not lack play makers.  That’s why I think they’ll be able to score some points here.  Wilcox is 8-3 ATS As a home dog, and his defense is still playing very well and one could argue this is the best defense Washington has faced this season.  Washington is also playing in their 3rd road game in the past 4 and go up against a pass defense that has 8 interceptions.  I think Cal sticks around in this one and have a shot at the upset.  The last 3 meetings have been close, and we are getting some extra value in this one based on recent results. 

Kansas State +3.5 3.3% play

TCU has a top 5 offense form a YPP perspective, but their average opponent ypp defense ranks 102.8, and here they’ll face Kansas State ranking 35th.  It’s a big step up in class, and Kansas State which ranks top 10 in epa pass defense will also have 30mph wind gusts in their favor in this game.  The windy environment definitely should help Kansas State who runs the ball more at a 62% clip.  Adrian Martinez should have a big day, as TCU ranks 90th in standard downs on the defensive line also 121st in power success and 105th in stuff rate.  Spencer Sanders had 68 rushing yards an 2TD’s and if he didn’t get banged up in the game I think Oklahoma State probably does not blow a 14 point 4th quarter lead.  Oklahoma State also not nearly as good defensively as Kansas State and overall Kansas State has the better statistical profile.

Situationally TCU is in a rough spot as they have been in tight games each of their last 4 weeks.  They faced 3 ranked conference foes, and had a rivalry game against SMU, their head coaches previous job.  Meanwhile, Kansas State just off the bye, and ready to give a max effort here, and they have edges in the trenches.  I don’t know if TCU will be able to take the punches and be able to throw them back late in the game.  Both teams play at a slow pace the total has come down 5+ points and I just feel like +3.5 offers tremendous value.  I like the way Adrian Martinez is playing right now and the Kansas State coaching staff is very good.

Pittsburgh +2.5 5.5% MAX POD

Malik Cunningham is cleared for this game for Louisville and that’s a good thing here.  He hasn’t played in 3 weeks since suffering a concussion and Louisville off a bye.  I always feel like QB’s struggle the first week coming back after a concussion.  I feel like they aren’t necessarily 100%, and then they have to process so much information so quickly.  Cunningham does not do well with that normally, and here he goes against top 25 pass rush  that also is a top 20 pass defense overall and decent enough against the run to give them issues.  Pitt is 15th in havoc rate, and Cunningham grades out very poorly according to PFF vs. pressure 33.5, and it’s really not optimal to face it in this situation.  I looked further back and Louisville is 7-16 overall when facing a top 50 pass rush with Cunningham as the starter with two of those wins vs. group of 5 team.

Personally, I think we are getting some value, because Pitt lost to Georgia Tech 3 weeks ago, but they rebounded nicely to beat Virginia Tech.  In that game they had 3 turnovers in the second half.  I think they take better care of the football here and Louisville actually is worse ranking 93rd in % of possessions ending in TO’s while Pitt ranks 57th.  Pitt, a much more balanced offense than previous years makes them more difficult to prepare for, and they played extremely well on the road a season ago, and are also off the bye.  Narduzzi the last few seasons with extra prep is 8-0 straight up, meanwhile Louisville just 2-4 the last two seasons with 10+ days to prepare and that includes some large losses by 19, 14, and 21 points.  Coaching advantage here for Pitt in my opinion.

Match up wise Pitt also has the advantage as they are both run first teams.  Pitt ranks 56th in epa vs. an average opponent ranking 53.2, while Louisville ranks 72nd vs. 66.  Pitt’s defense ranks 43rd, while Louisville’s ranks 70th.  Pitt also more of a threat in the passing game as Pitt’s pass defense is top 20.  Louisville’s pass defense ranks 88th in qb rating despite having 2nd best pass rush, which is not a great sign heading into this game. Pitt’s other loss, was only only to Tennessee the #3 team in the nation, and nobody played Tennessee better this year than Pitt.

LSU -130 3% play

LSU is just a different team at home particularly stopping the run where they only gave up 2.98 ypc last year compared to 4.89 on the road.  Ole Miss which is relying heavily on the running game 65% of their play calls are runs struggled on the road running the ball 3.63 ypc compared to 5.84 at home.  Their QB play as a result struggled last year on the road with a 40 point drop in QB rating.  Jaxson Dart is very much inexperienced and has 3TD/3INT on the road this year.  Dart also struggled last year and people forget how young this kid is as USC lost his last two road starts as they scored just 16 and 14 points.

LSU has the more experienced QB in Daniels who I feel is going to continue to play better after another week in Brian Kelly’s offense, which is starting to click.  The loss and the way the defense played against Tennessee suddenly doesn’t look that bad.  I think LSU’s defense is better even though the stats don’t support that completely.  They have faced a far tougher schedule of offenses and they have a better success rate defense ranking 40th compared to Ole Miss, and Ole Miss defense has faced an average opponent SR offense of 91.6.  Ole Miss should have gotten beat by Kentucky at home, but got lucky with some fumble recoveries late.  They struggled to put away a bad Auburn team last week, and Vanderbilt hung around with them far too long.  Ole Miss 80th in % of possessions ending in a TO while LSU ranks 14th.  LSU also very good in the red zone with a 26.88 red zone TD % differential and that has come against an average opp red zone TD% of +11.65.  Ole Miss has been good as weel +24.24 but vs. an average opponent -3.7%.  Lastly Brian Kelly as a dog or a favorite under a FG is a very impressive 36-14-2 ATS. 

Liberty +7 3.3% play

I understand Liberty has not faced a tough schedule with an opponent YPP differential of -0.58, but BYU’s opponent YPP differential is -0.34, and they both put up +1ypp.  BYU just went back to back against Notre Dame and Arkansas and got their buts kicked.  They got their buts kicked against Oregon as well.  The schedule is obviously tougher than what Liberty has done, but Liberty is at home here getting a TD, and Hugh Freeze is 9-3 ATS as a home dog, 26-11 ATS as a dog overall, and is a hell of a coach.

Liberty also top 50 defense, and they have shown they can stop the run and the pass, and put pressure on the QB.  They rank 4th ins ack %, 5th in success rate defense, and are top 25 in epa run defense and epa pass defense.  BYU’s defense is showing major holes ranking 123rd in success rate defense.  Liberty may get some help this week at QB with the return of Charlie Brewer, but it’s their running game that I’m banking on keeping them in this game.  They rank 45th in epa run offense and go up against BYU who ranks 98th in epa run defense.  BYU’s defense has also struggled vs. the pass, and I honestly don’t know if BYU has anything left at this point after going back to back game against Notre Dame and Arkansas.  I see a game that goes down to the wire, because of Liberty’s defense.

Oklahoma State +6 2.2% play

Spencer Sanders is a go, and the fact that there will be 20mph winds actually gives Oklahoma State +6 more value as the total has come down 5-6 points but the spread has moved in favor of Texas from 3 to 6.  Texas has looked great, but are we giving them too much credit already for their close win to Alabama and their blowout of a very bad Oklahoma team?  We saw Texas struggle in their lone true road game at Texas Tech losing out right and that was a Texas Tech team that ranks 105th in defense ypc.  Oklahoma State’s defense is not as good as a season ago, but they still hold their own particularly against ht erun ranking top 50.  With the wind I think this game comes down to the wire.  I don’t trust Quinn Ewers on the road not to make a mistake, and Mike Gundy is one of those coaches I like backing as a dog.

Wisconsin -120 3% play 

LA Tech +130 2.5% ML Dog play

Rice has been great at 5-1 ATS this season, but now they’re a road favorite to a team they were a 3.5 point dog to just last November, a game La Tech lost due to 3 turnovers.  Speaking of turnovers, Rice ranks 131st in percentage of possessions ending in a TO, and Louisiana Tech ranks 33rd on defense in that category.  Rice is -7 to margin on the road this season while LA Tech is +4 at home.

La Tech also has the better success rate offense and defense, and I would argue they have played the tougher schedule when you look at the fact that they have played 4 of their 6 games on the road, and have faced Clemson and Missouri.  I think this came should be closer to pk, and I’ll take ML here at home.  

SMU +3.5 3.3% PLAY 

Luke Fickell is an excellent coach and his team is coming off a bye, but that’s all in the line here in my opinion.  This spread is as if this is last year’s Cinicinnati team, but they lost several players to the NFL, including two starting CB’s in Cobe Bryant and Sauce Gardner.  It appears they haven’t skipped a beat ranking 4th in ypp, but they have faced an average opponent ypp offense ranking 85.8.  There are red flags too as they haven’t been forcing turnovers ranking 92nd, and their third down defense ranks 109th while their rn defense ranks 76th in epa.  I just don’t know how good this Cinci team is, and they were +1 dog here in 2020 when there were no fans.

I get it SMU lost 3 straight games and appear not to be as good as they were with Sonny Dykes, but that 3 game stretch vs. Maryland, TCU, and UCF as those teams are a combined 16-3, and SMU played two of those games on the road.  SMU was actually a 2.5 home dog to TCU, are we saying Cincinnati is better than TCU right now?  I don’t know that they are especially 1 point better over a key number of 3, which is really saying they are a lot better.  Do we put Cincinnati -2.5 on a neutral vs. TCU? I don’t think so.

Cinci before their bye really struggled at home, and I question what this team has on offense.  Ben Bryant was concussed in the 4th quarter, but that was before they trailed at home to South Florida 24-21.  He’s back for this game, but the first game after a concussion is always a bit shaky, and I think SMU can take advantage.  Cinci also played a road game at Tulsa, but came away with a 10 point win, which looking back at Tulsa got smashed the next week by Navy by 30 points.  SMU just dominated Navy a week ago had a 40-20 lead in the 4th quarter before they took the foot off the gas allowing Navy to score 2 TD’s in the final 2 minutes for the back door cover.

South Alabama -3 1.1% Free Play  

The winner of this game will likely be the team out of the Sun Belt west.  Troy has played the toughter schedule, but South Alabama has the more impressive result losing by only 1 at UCLA now looks quite good.  This is also a short week for both teams, but Troy is going on the road while South Alabama was home last game and remains home for this one, which gives them an edge in this one.

I certainly don’t trust Troy’s offensive line on the road.  They rank 122nd in ypc, and 116th in sack % allowed, which has led to 106th rank in turnover percentage per offensive drive.  South Alabama has a huge edge there as they rank 4th in turning teams over, and that’s just not something you are going to see many people handicap.  Predict who wins the turnover battle and predict who wins the game.  South Alabama also 20th in rushing ypc, and are decent enough in pass defense ranking 60th in epa pass defense, and overall rank 23rd in success rate defense compared to Troy who ranks 71st. 

Troy has a few other red flags here they rank 121st in third down defense and will be going up against South Alabama who is 7th in 3rd down offense.  Also South Alabama has the stronger special teams unit and Troy has been very poor in red zone TD% -22.23 differential compared to South Alabama who is +12.63%.  Troy was a 5.5 point dog at Western Kentucky and hung on to win, but South Alabama’s #’s are better than Western Kentucky.  All in all this is a short enough number to play.

Utah -3 -115 3.5% play

The Utes should control this game with the running game.  USC’s strength of schedule has been horrific when we talk about the defenses and offenses they have faced and it has led to a lot of hype.  I’m not at all sold on this USC defense, which has largely benefited from timely turnovers against horrible competition.  The average opponent offense ranks 79th in YPP and 83.5 in success rate.  Their run defense despite facing an average 87.1 ypc offense ranks 90th in ypc allowed.  Utah is a run first team, but is fully capable of beating teams through the arm of Cam Rising.  Utah lost two games already this year when their defense did not show up, but those games were on the road, and while USC’s offense has clicked there are some red flags particularly in their road game at Oregon State where Caleb Williams had just 170 yards on 36 attempts.  Utah’s defense is better than Oregon State, but their offense is also more balanced than Oregon State, and have a significantly better home field advantage, better coach and more experience.  Washington State also held USC under 400 total yards a week ago.  Utah’s secondary is the strength of the team ranking 28th in epa pass defense.

USC wins this game and I think they may cruise the rest of the way, but I think Utah is up to the task.  Kyle Whittingham lost a player to USC in the offseason and commented several times about his opinion on the new landscape of college football, which was a direct shot at what USC is doing.  Will it matter?  I don’t know, but I do know that Utah will be max motivated at home, and they have the match up.  This game should be more like a TD favorite for Utah, but the fact that they lost a couple of games including last week makes it much closer giving us value.   At the end of the day, how confident are you in the fact that USC average opponent run defense ranks 115th, and their average opponent pass offense ranked 98th.  The strength of schedules just don’t compare.  

Florida State +3.5  2.2% play / FSU +155 1% ML Bonus

I’m not sold on this Clemson team, and this line tells a true story.  How is it that Clemson is only a 3.5 point favorite here?  Well a deeper look and these two teams played the same 3 teams the last 3 weeks, and both went 2-1 ATS with similar statistics.  Also worth noting that Florida State +1.8 ypp against tougher competition compared to Clemson +1.4 ypp.  I also would argue that Florida State, and not Clemson has the better QB in this match up.  Jordan Travis is a difference maker, and while they lost last week against NC State because of two interceptions I am confident he bounces back here.  On paper Clemson has the better defense and Florida State has the better offense, but again Florida State has faced tougher competition.  Florida State is at home here at night in their biggest game in years and I think they pull the outright upset.

Kentucky +4

Classic buy low sell high situation here as Miss State dominated a good Arkansas team without their QB winning 40-17, while Kentucky lost without their star QB Will Levis as a more than a TD favorite.  Arkansas with a backup QB actually had 3 trips into Miss State territory with no points, so that final score was a bit misleading.  Kentucky is 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.  They are getting Will Levis back this game, and it will be the third game for Chris Rodriguez at RB, which should make a difference.

Miss State’s air raid offense is tough to defend, but I feel Kentucky can have success.  They rank 26th in epa pass defense this is the third year in a row they are seeing it, and the strength of the team is the LB’s.  Kentucky also a very good red zone defense, and although they haven’t gotten pressure on the QB this year that has been much different at home where they are top 50.  Miss State will move the ball, but Kentucky is 40th in third down stops, and top 25 pass defense overall should be able to slow Miss State enough to cover this #.

Kentucky on the flip side here is still a run first offense despite having issues from their OL.  I don’t think that shows up as much at home here and Miss State’s defensive weakness is their defensive line where they rank 107th in adjusted line ayrds, 102nd in standard down, 92nd vs. the run.  Kentucky since 2018 is 18-2 straight up when facing a team outside the top 75 in run defense.  These are two slow paced teams, and I expect a very tight ball game, but I believe the value is on the Kentucky side as they have also faced the tougher schedule.  Kentucky opponents +0.5 ypp differential compared to Miss State -0.51.  Kentucky could be undefeated they lost against Ole Miss on a late fumble, and obviously played without Levis against South Carolina this past week.  If that were the case wouldn’t they be favored here, but this is the exact spot we like to take Kentucky and Stoops in + the points.

LSU +3 -120 4% play

Taking points with the team coming off a loss, as LSU got behind early to Tennessee, which has been the story for the Vols.  Get out early and hold on.  There is no shame to falling victim to the same thing most teams do as Heupel 19-2 in his last 21 first half spreads.  This week will be a different story, and a good buy low spot on LSU who is 14-5 ATS after an ATS loss.  Brian Kelly is 25-16 ATS following a SU loss, and 14-6 ATS in that situation as a dog.  Meanwhile, Florida is over achieving at this point and were lucky to get by Missouri last week as a double digit favorite because of a pick six.

LSU has the better defense here.  Both teams have played an opponent YPP offense of 55.6 (LSU), AND 57.2 for Florida.  Yet LSU ranks 46th in ypp defense compared to Florida’s 98th ranking.  The biggest difference between these two defenses is LSU’s ability to stop the run, and running QBS, and Florida’s inability to do that.  Florida 113th in defensive ypc, and 115th in epa, and have really struggled vs. mobile QB’s.  Cam Rising 7-91, Gerry Bohannon 15-102, and Hendon Hooker 13-112.  LSU’s defense ranks 40th in ypc, 32nd in epa, and has held the 3 mobile QB’s they have faced in check, Jordan Travis 8-31, Auburn’s Ashford 11-19, Hooker 10-56.  Florida’s offense is very much one dimensional, and I trust Jaydon Daniels a little bit more than Anthony Richardson at this point.

LSU also the better red zone offense/defense, the better 3rd down team, Florida is 125th in third down defense.  Florida also 109th in % of possessions ending in TO’s while LSU has taken care of the ball ranking 23rd in that category.  Majority of public backing Florida at nearly 70%, based off LSU’s inability to show up against Tennessee. LSU should win this game outright.

NC STATE +3.5 2.2% play

This line is the way it is, because NC State will likely be without their star QB Leary, but the back up is a 25 year old with plenty of experience, enough to manage the game and not turn the ball over, which is my handicap here.  NC State should be able to establish the running game here when you look at the fact that Syracuse is completely under sized in this match up.  Syracuse DT weight 266lbs, in their 3-3-5 scheme.  NC State’s OL average 317 lbs across the starting 5.  Also without Leary in the second half the defense stepped up and shut down Florida State offense and held them scoreless and I see much of the same with a team stepping up in the absence of their QB.

Syracuse offense has looked great with the addition of Robert Annae, Garret Schrader looks like he has taken the next step, but a closer look and this team has not faced anyone.  Their toughest opponent was Purdue, a game they were outgained by 200 yards and should have lost, don’t get me started that was a MAX POD for me.  Overall this is a step up in competition and the best defense Syracuse has faced thus far.  NC State’s DC Tony Gibson’s defense did hold Annaels Virginia offense in check in 2020 picking Brennan Armstrong off 3 times and hold them to under 100 yards rushing.  Schrader had a rough game against this defense in 2021.  I know the sentiment is that he has improved, but he has not faced a defense that can stop the run and pass. 

Syracuse off the bye, but that’s not always a good thing when you are 5-0 and playing your best football you really don’t want the break.  They’ll be the fresher team here, but overall the pace of the game will be slow, and NC State has a top 5 special temas unit.  Points will be at a premium as this total suggests opened 44.5 down to 42 or 41.5.  I’ll take NC State +3.5.

Indiana +11.5 2.2% / Indiana +340 0.5%

Indiana is a well-coached team, and we certainly have the better coach in this spot at home getting double digits.  I think it could be a flat spot for Maryland team off the home loss to Purdue.  Is it that time for Maryland’s season to unravel or are they mentally strong enough to push through and win by double digits? I know they’ll be in a dog fight early in this game, Indiana trailed Michigan 17-10 into the 4th quarter last week, and I don’t think Maryland will handle it as well.

Indiana has faced a far tougher schedule with an opponent YPP differential of +1.48, compared to Maryland -0.28.  Maryland’s defense has been very good surprisingly, but the one thing Indiana is going to throw at them is the passing game something that they did not handle well last week against Purdue and that was at home.  Indiana also plays with a ton of tempo #1 in seconds per play, which may hurt them or help them.  I’m betting it helps them as Marylands defense ranks 93rd in 3rd down defense.  Remember, Indiana won at home to open the season over a much improved Illinois team.

TCU / Oklahoma St Over 68.5 2.2% play 

Penn State / Michigan U50.5 2.2% play

I like the under here and still see value despite the drop the last few days.  We have two teams who perfer to run, and two teams that play with a slow pace.  Michigan 119th in seconds per play, and Penn State ranking 80th.  Penn State also relies on the explosive plays, but Michigan's defense has been excellent ranking 34th in 20+ play percentage allowed, and they have only allowed 33% of red zone trips to turn into a TD. 

There is also some weather here with 15mph winds and 30mph gusts that should keep this a tight low scoring game.  

Iowa State+ 162.2% play

Texas in a sandwich game here after the Red River Rivalary a spot they have struggled.  I can’t buy that Texas is back yet not when they lost to Texas Tech team on the road, and they have Oklahoma State on the road next week.  Iowa State has the Big 12’s best defense and their 3-3-5 defense gives QB’s issues, and I think Ewers could struggle here keeping Iowa State in the game.  Iowa State’s defense 9th in 3rd down defense, 31st in 20+ play % allowed and they rank 15th in yards per play allowed.  They are a balanced defense solid against the run and the pass.

I just think this is an over reaction to Texas beating Oklahoma 49-0 last week in what was a depleted Oklahoma team.  Matt Campbell 30-17 ATS as a dog, and has only lost a game by 17 one time since he’s been at Iowa State.

West Virginia +3.5 3.3% play

73% of action on Baylor here, but I don't think West Virginia is that bad and feel with the new offense they are only going to get better especially coming off extra time to prepare.  They are alos playing this at home where they have a very good home field, and have gone 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 at home, and have beaten BAylor 6 straight at home.

The strength of schedule also favors West Virginia, which to me gives them more value, because they are looked at as an inferrior opponents, when in reality it's not as bad as it looks.  Baylor's opponent YPP differential checks in at -0.025, while West Virginia is +0.875.  That Texas loss, and that Kansas loss are certainly looking better now.  Also their opponent success rate defense faced is 28.5 on average compared to Baylor who has faced an average SR defense of 74th. 

Some of their statistical profile looks like Oklahoma State, a team Baylor just got beat by.  Especially defensively where they are weak vs. the pass, but very good agaisnt the run, which is a good match up for West Virginia.  You want to be good against the run vs. Baylor set them up in 3rd and long, where their OL has had issues, and West Virginia has shown an ability to get pressure on QB and get home as they rank top 50 in sack rate.  On the flip side Baylor's defensive weakness is vs. the pass.  They are excellent vs. the run don't even bother running on them, but against hte pass they rank 83rd in epa, and West Virginia throws the ball more than they run as OC Graham Harrel was a former QB, and JT Daniels is fully capable of taking advantage.  West Virginia also has a very big edge on special teams ranking 70th against a far tougher group of special team opponents while Baylor ranks 125th. 

Iowa +3.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD

Clear hangover spot here for Illinois in my opinion.  Not only did they upset Wisconsin on the road they got their HC fired, and Brett Bielema who was fired by Wisconsin had to be very happy.  Well, how do they come back home now as a favorite, a role they’re not really used to with a hungry Iowa team who will be giving it their all before they go on a bye.

Iowa has all the ingredients of a dog we love.  We have the better defense based on strength of schedule.  Their offense which is catching a lot of shit has only faced an average ypp defense ranking 19.2, and again they face a top 10 defense right now, but a closer look at Illinois and their defense has faced an average opponent offense ranking 91st in ypp.  I understand Iowa ranks 108th, but I have more confidence that they’ll figure it out and Illinois will start to digress.

Honestly, both of these teams are very similar, run first offenses that take their time in pace.  3.5 points for Iowa when the total is 36 points seems like an awful lot.  I also love the fact that Iowa has significant edges in categories most people don’t bother to take a look at.  Special teams they rank 17th, and Illinois ranks 54th.  Penalties, Iowa is top 25 in fewest penalties, while Illinois ranks 106th.  Finally, turnovers which is arguably the most important thing to look at when you handicap a game.  Turnovers are generally luck, but Iowa seems to have a tendency year in and year out to cause turnovers.  They rank 21st in % of opponent’s possessions ending in TO’s, while Illinois ranks 111th on offense turning the ball over 17% of their offensive possessions.  Their QB is Tommy Devito who is typically good for 1 or 2 against top defense.  They actually played a clean game at Wisconsin, but don’t expect it to happen again here, and their star RB Chase Brown already has 2 fumbles. 

One last note, Kirk Ferentz on the road where the spread is single digits, is a cash maker as he has gone 39-24 ATS. 

Notre Dame -175 2.5 %play 

Neutral site game here, and it should be a good one.  Notre Dame has a huge advantage up front here and the OL is only going to get better coming off a bye as they rank 27th in adjusted line yards going up against BYU who ranks 118th in adjusted line yard defense.  BYU’s offensive line also outside the top 100 so Notre Dame should control the trenches here.  I also really liked what I saw from Notre Dame on the road against North Carolina, and BYU may struggle here when you consider their receivers are still not entirely healthy and the ability to stretch the field and get explosive plays.  

Air Force / Utah State Over 54.5 3.3% play

We are getting some value on the over here for a couple of reasons.  For one Air Force just played Navy in a 13-10 game, and those games always go under the total.  That game is calculated into the formula that gives us the total, so I believe the formula is a bit misled because of the game against Navy.  Utah State also has had very poor luck in the red zone with a 43% TD%.  They just put up 26 points against BYU a very good defense after being forced to make a QB change.  Utah State plays very fast, and Air Force’s weakness is in the secondary where they rank 125th in QB Rating.  Utah State’s run defense which will be key here also big weakness as they rank 116th vs. the run, and gave up 49 points to Air Force a season ago.  Air Force plays extremely slow, but Utah State 15th in seconds per play will make up for that here, and both teams are bottom 50 in 20+ yard play % allowed.

Vanderbilt +17 2.2% play

Both of these teams are run first teams and this should keep the clock ticking making this a very challenging spread for Ole Miss to cover.  Ole Miss does like to play fast, but Vanderbilt counters that by being the 111th paced team in the country.  Vanderbilt actually is the best running team that Ole mIss has faced and ran for over 200 yards a season ago.  I think the bye week helps them here even more as they try to pull the upset over a top 10 team while Ole Miss was extremely fortunate to beat Kentucky at home as a 7 point favorite.

On paper Ole Miss run defense has been dominant ranking 26th, but a closer look and they have faced an average rushing ypc of 111th.  Vanderbilt comes in here ranking 55th, and as I mentioned should have some success running the ball.  Ole Miss last year really struggled running the ball on the road -2ypc, and that is the strength of the Vanderbilt defense.  I think we see a close game, and Ole Miss has shown they are willing to take the foot off the break late in games.

Texas Tech +9 3.3% play

There is a huge discrepancy in strength of schedule here as Oklahoma State has faced an average oppy pp differential of -0.46, and Texas Tech has faced +0.675.  Tech has proven they can be competitive in these games and have been tested this season.  Oklahoma State has not been tested and are already showing some huge signs of weaknesses as their defense ranks 100th in ypp, and that comes against an average 77th ranked offense.  Texas Tech is a pass first team, and that’s the weakness of this Oklahoma State team that ranks 111th in pass defense, 124th in epa pass defense.

Texas Tech if you can believe it is actually the better defense.  They rank 98th in ypp defense, but it has come against an average 56th ranked offense.  Oklahoma State also in a major let down spot after avenging their loss against Baylor in the Big 12 Title game and they have top 20 ranked TCU on deck  Both of these teams like to play fast and a back door is definitely not out of the question as Donnovan Smith should pass for over 300 yards.

Indiana +22.5 2.2% play

This is a sandwich spot for Michigan after their first road game at Iowa they stay on the road to face Indiana, and have Penn State next. I think Indiana can give them enough issues here as Tom Allen is a good football coach, and knows how to stop a running game.  Michigan their last two visits in 2019 and 2020 came up with 87 yards and 13 rushing yards.

We really don’t know much about Michigan at this point.  They have faced a very weak schedule with an opponent ypp diff of +1.27 compared to Indiana who has faced a -1.12, which is a massive difference.  To put things in perspective the average YPP differential of all 131 teams is -0.03 yards per play.  Their wins over Maryland and Iowa don’t exactly impress me, and Indiana is quite comparable to Iowa.  Good defense, and a shitty offense.  At least Indiana can protect their QB, and at least their QB can throw the ball.  Yet we have a spread at 22. 5compared to 10.5 against Iowa.  Michigan did cover, but Iowa had a couple opportunities late to cover the spread.  Indiana likes to run fast, which could bite them here, but I think it will give them more of an advantage.  Michigan likes to sub players in and out, and with Indiana the #1 team as far as pace goes I think Indiana will be able to move the ball and score or get points in the 4th quarter that Iowa could not do. 

LSU +3 2.2% play

We are getting the better defense at home catching points.  I think we are getting value here when you factor in LSU barely got by Auburn and had to over come 17-0 defecit, but that was their first road game, and Kelly pulled Jayden Daniels after an injury, but stated that he would have stayed in the game if they were losing.  They were also without LG Grrett Dellinger and both returning this week.  Daniels has struggled at times this year, but when we look at the fact that he has faced defense ranked on average 46th in ypp defense and now he’ll face a Tennessee defense that ranks 97th in epa pass defense, I think LSU should be able to exploit the secondary of Tennessee especially at home. LSU OL has struggled at times, but they have faced an average opponent sack % ranking 36th, and here they’ll face Tennessee who ranks 85th in sack %.  Daniels should get a little more time, and I also think sometimes it helps when you are pulled out of a game and you get to watch. I expect Daniels to have a very big game. Anthony Richards, another mobile spread zone offense QB who couldn’t pass the ball at all threw for 400+ yards against this Tennessee secondary.

This line is giving Tennessee far too much credit, off the bye, and Alabama on deck.  Tennessee’s offense has been great and creates a lot of buzz, but they are a run first team and haven’t faced any top defenses.  On average they have faced 86.5 ranked ypp defense, and their rushing attack has faced 98th average ypc defense.  LSU ranks 25th in ypp, and they rank 13th at stopping the run.  You can’t overlook the fact that Hendon Hooker could be without his top target Cedric Tillman who had ankle surgery in the bye week.  If he plays I don’t know how effective he will be.  Tennessee last year faced 4 top 50 rushing defense and went 1-3 in those games with their lone win being a 3 point victory at Kentucky.

Oklahoma +9.5 3.3% play

I’m a believer that injuries in the market are typically over rated especially at the QB situation, and we have a great spot here as Dillon Gabriel likely out with the concussion and Texas likely getting their 5* QB Quin Ewers back.  This to me is just a crazy line move and when you factor in Oklahoma over the last 10 years have been a favorite in every game by an average of 10.15 points.  Now Texas has covered that spread in 7 of those games, but now they’re the favorite, and I don’t think it’s warranted on a neutral field in a rivalry game.

I expect the rest of the Oklahoma team to step up here, and I still think they will have success running the ball they rank 5th in epa run offense compared to Texas who ranks 64th.  Their run defense has not been great, but they just faced two top 10 rushing attacks.  While Texas is great at running the ball they still rank 64th in epa run offense, and I think Oklahoma could force some turnovers into a relatively unknown Quinn Ewers.  I think we are getting Oklahoma in a great spot off back to back losses.  I would still argue that Oklahoma has the better defense.  I also think Texas is still getting far too much credit for their close loss against Alabama.

Nevada -3 -120 3% play

I would call this one the Jay Norvell Bowl, as Jay Norvell did not get fired, but opted to leave for Colorado State for more $, and better facilities.  He took players with him and 10 freshman recruits who verbally committed to Nevada.  Nevada’s new HC Ken Wilson spoke about it and I think this game certainly means something to the players that remain, and with a bye week, and then hosting this game it should be advantage Nevada in my opinion.

Colorado State is also dealing with a ton of injuries, and will likely be starting a true freshman on the road here as their starting QB has a shoulder injury.  They’ve got injuries on the left side of their offensive line, and while those guys are probably it’s doubtful they make it through the game.  They rank 131st in protecting the QB, which is led to a ton of turnovers, and Nevada at home can get to the QB they rank 50th in sack %, and Nevada ranks 4th in forcing turnovers.  On top of that Nevada also has the better special teams unit ranking 47th to Colorado State’s 127th ranking.  Nevada at home with the better 3rd down offense, special teams, better at limiting and forcing turnovers, and players who are hungry for revenge on their old coach and maybe the players who verbally committed and left for Colorado State.

Nebraska -137 2.5% play 

Virginia +3 -120 3.5% play

The story of Virginia is their offense despite returning Brennan Armstrong and his top 3 WR they have really struggled ranking 101st in YPP, 107th in success rate.  The reason being their offensive line had to be completely replaced, and their OC left for Syracuse, and they have made many mistakes along the way due to the fact that Armstrong has faced 2nd most pressure in college football at 71, but here they have an extra day of rest and going up against a poor defense in Duke.  Duke 107th in sack %, run 4-2-5, and hardly ever blitz, which is a favorable match up for this Virginia offense that is also getting Billy Kemp back this week for another weapon for Armstrong as they go up against Dukes’s 114th ranked epa pass defense. Compare that against Syracuse 35th, and Illinois 2nd , Virginia’s other opponents, and I think Virginia finds some success here.

Virginia’s defense has been a pleasant surprise ranking 33rd in ypp, and 12th in success rate.  They’ve been great at getting off the field on third down, and forcing TO’s, while Duke’s offense has been great it has come against an average opponent ypp defense ranking 76th.  This is a step up in competition as Virginia ranks 3rd in sack %.  Last week was a tough spot for Virginia on a short week and they nearly came all the way back to beat Syracuse.  This week they’ll have an extra day of prep and as of right now the weather will not play a role.  Virginia also has a significant edge on special teams ranking 47th in overall efficiency compared to Duke’s 119th ranking.  

Troy +5.5 5.5% NCAAF POD

Western Kentucky looks like it has not missed a beat, but look at the strength of schedule here as they have faced an opponent ypp differential of -2.8ypp.  To put it simply the average defense ypp is 105th, and average ypp offense is 116.  This is a team that had to replace their QB, OC, top WR, and only returned 11 starters.  There are going to be some growing pains and I think it shows up here against a very tough Troy team that already has proven they can win on the road as was the case at App State where it took a miracle on game day for them to lose.

Troy matches up well here, because of the defensive line, which is the best in the Sun Belt.  They ranked 3rd in sack %, but unlike Western Kentucky, Troy has faced a very tough schedule to start with road games at Ole Miss and App State, and then a very impressive home win last week against Marshall.  They go back on the road to face Western Kentucky, and I think they’ll be in position to win this game.  Western Kentucky’s offense despite facing poor defenses have only converted 34.48% of their plays.  Western Kentucky relying heavily on big plays.  They were #1 in 20+ yard plays a season ago.  Troy was 33rd allowing 20+ plays last season and is top 20 this season despite playing

Western Kentucky has to be feeling good about themselves right now, but they have a monster game on deck.  They’ll face UTSA the team they lost to twice last year including the C-USA Championship.  Troy coming from the Sun Belt is the clear better conference and Western Kentucky just 2-6 ATS their last 8 vs. Sun Belt.

Auburn +8.5 2.2% play

I understand the near/lucky loss to Missouri at home in OT looks really bad, and a lot of people are calling for Bryan Harsin’s head, but this team is 3-1 and have a night game against LSU that I feel should be competitive.  Auburn has to go with their backup QB Robby Ashford, but I would argue he’s an upgrade over the statue of TJ Finley.  Ashford can at least be mobile to go along with Tank Bigsby.  It won’t be easy, but it’s not like Auburn’s offense has struggled against bad defenses.  All 3 of their opponents are inside the top 30 in ypp defense.  In fact Auburn’s opponents average YPP differential is +1.2, while LSU’s is -0.03.  This is LSU’s first road game, and while their run defense, which is the key here is 14th, they have done it against an average opponent ypc of 84th, and they’ve done it all at home.

LSU could be looking ahead to Tennessee or just reading the clippings that Auburn is no good, and I’m not saying Auburn is a good team, but to be an 8 point dog is a buy low spot here.  LSU’s offensive line should not be taken on the road here to cover over a TD.  They rank 111th in sack % and Daniels may not even stay healthy for this game.  Auburn still plays hard on defense and the DL ranks 33rd in sack %, and again this is at home, at night.  If Auburn gets blown out then Harsin is probably getting fired, but I think the more likely scenario is Auburn stays in this game. 71% of the action on LSU here, and it’s just not that easy.  Also the total dropped from 50 down to 44.5 in spots yet we have not seen any type of correction on the spread making this +8 even more valuable.

California+4 2.2% play

These two teams are pretty evenly matched and Cal is tested on the road already by their tough game at Notre Dame.  Cal is +0.4 ypp differential on the season vs. an average opponent -0.2, while Washingto State is +0.2 vs. a -0.56 so very similar, but better #’s against tougher competition for Cal.  I think Wash State is maybe getting too much credit for their win at Wisconsin, and their close game against Oregon last week.  We had Wash State +7 last week, and despite them blowing a lead, and even needing a hail mary of sorts to cover they were out gained by 196 yards to Oregon.

Cal’s defense and HC Justin Wilcox should have their team ready and unless they don’t tackle well should hold this offense that likes to make quick passes in check.  They lost last year’s meeting, cut I’m expecting a low scoring close battle, and Wilcox is 14-4 ATS as a road dog at Cal. Nobody wants any part of Cal with 68% of the action on Wash State.

Texas A&M +4.5 3.3% play

I think these two teams are pretty even, but we have a spread over 4 and yet 68% of the bets are on Miss State here.   The Aggies DC Durkin has faced Mike Leach each of the last two seasons, and while they gave up a ton of points they held them to 24 and 21 points as Ole Miss won both of those games.  The Aggies lost last year’s game in this sandwich spot 22-26, but held Miss State to 3-10 on third down.  That’s exactly what Durkin’s defense did against Miss State each of the last two years holding them to 7-28 on third downs, and holding them to Field goals instead of TD’s.

Miss State’s offensive line is a bit banged up and could have some issues with the talented A&M defensive front that could create some pressure here.  They are very young, but can only get better as the season goes on.  I think Miss State will move the ball, but Will Rogers and this offense rank 123rd in % of possessions ending in a TO add in the struggles in the red zone vs. Durkin’s defense and I think A&M +4.5 is very attractive.

A&M’s offense has shown some light since putting in Max Johnson, they can only continue to get better despite losing Smith at WR for the season, Achane looks like a guy that can take over a game.  Miss State’s defense that runs the 3-3-5 is under sized, and I think A&M will have more success in this game.

A&M has a significant edge on special teams according to footballoutsiders, ranking 4th compared to Miss State 101st ranking.  They have revenge as they lost this game at home a season ago 26-22.  This is also a very large move on the spread from last year as Miss State +7 now -4.5 at home, that would say that A&M would be only a 1.5 point favorite at home this year.  That’s a 5.5 point move in favor of Miss State based off of what?  The loss the Aggies had against App State?  A&M was also a 4.5 point road favorite just 2 years ago, a move of 9 points.  Aggies had #1 recruiting class, and top 10 each of the last 3 years, while Miss State cracked top 25 1x.  What has changed?

Iowa State -3 3.3% play

Iowa State is off a very tough loss last week at home to a very good Baylor team.  Iowa State now goes on the road to face a 4-0 SU & ATS Kansas team under Lance Leipold that’s getting a lot of hype, but probably too much at this point, which is one reason we are going to back Iowa State here with a short #.  This line was just -34 Iowa State a season ago, and they covered by 18 points.  These are similar staffs from the sense that Lance Leipold has worked his way up from the D3 ranks just like Matt Campbell, but Iowa State’s program is just a few years ahead.  This wont’ be as easy as last year’s cover, but I definitely think we have value on Iowa State here off a loss, Matt Campbell is 19-9-1 ATS with his time at Iowa State.

Kansas offense has clicked but they have yet to face a top 70 ypp defense, and Iowa State ranks 7th.  Iowa State’s offense has looked decent, but they still have faced a couple of top 25 ypp defense in Iowa and Baylor, which have deflated their #’s.  I think despite losing some veteran guys from last year’s team this offense is still going to score points this year and this is a great opportunity to do so against a defense that ranks 106th in epa run defense, and 111th in epa pass defense.  Kansas was down 14 points against West Virginia and Houston, and if that happens again here Iowa State has the team that won’t allow Kansas back into the game.

Baylor -130 3% play

Baylor has a very under rated home field advantage in my opinion, and I think this is a short line bc Oklahoma State off a bye, and Oklahoma State revenge from Big 12 Title game, but I think those are over rated motivating factors here.  The fact of the matter is Oklahoma State is a different team than last year after losing a veteran led defense and their DC.  They have had to rely on their offense more this year, which is great when you are facing weak teams.  I don’t think the extra time really benefits Oklahoma State here, because this is the 3rd time Baylor is preparing against Oklahoma State in the last 12 months.

Baylor has also been tested in tight games in a road game at BYU, and a road game at Iowa State.  I have questions about this Oklahoma State offense led by Spencer Sanders who averaged nearly 2 yards / attempt less on the road last year.  Over his 15 career road games he has only faced a top 35 defense 3x, and is 0-3 in those games.  He’s clearly developed as a QB, but I still have question marks.  Now maybe he proves me wrong here, but I like Baylor with the short # to win.  They have played the far tougher schedule with their average opponent ypp at +0.36 compared to Oklahoma State’s -0.8 yet they have put up better overall #’s.

Michigan St +7.5 1.65% / Mich St +250 0.5% 

Iowa +10.5 2.2% play 

In 2016 Kirk Ferentz and Jim Harbough faced off for the first time @ Iowa, the only meeting in Iowa, and Iowa was  +24 dog and won outright 14-13.  In 2019 they faced off again and Michigan was a 4 point home favorite and won 10-3, and then in the Big Ten Championship last year Michigan an 11.5 point favorite won 42-3.  This line suggests that Iowa is worse, and Michigan is better and I don’t think I agree with that.  Michigan has faced a far worse schedule with their opponent ypp differential -1.65 on the season and that’s with playing Maryland who is +2.  Kirk Ferentz has been playing that Big Ten Championship game with his team all week.  It was a 14-3 half time score, and Michigan’s 2 TD’s came on a trick 75 yard TD pass, and a 67 yard run.  Iowa back at home where they have been very good has some value here.

Both teams are going up against elite defenses that rank top 25.  Over the past 4 seasons Iowa just 7-7 vs. top 25 defenses, but 4 of those 7 losses came by a TD or less.  While Michigan is just 7-8 vs. top 25 defenses over the last 4 seasons, after a 3-1 season last year.  I think last year was a bit of an outlier for Jim Harbough and this team.  They will have a young inexperienced JJ McCarthy making his first road start here, and Michigan’s offensive line thus far ranks 128th in sack % allowed, while Iowa has 12 sacks already.  I think there is an opportunity for Iowa to get some points on defense, and their special teams should really be able to help them in the field position game.  The only reason they got killed last year was they could not stop the running game.  They are far better stopping the run at home, and this should be a tight game.

Kentucky +7 2.2% play 

This is the role I love to back Mark Stoops in.  It is a little unusual to see a top 10 ranked team a TD dog on the road against a team that is ranked lower, and that would cause me some pause, but looking into this game I could not go any other way.  I think Kentucky is going to force Ole Miss to rely on Jaxson Dart to win them this game, and I don’t know that he can.  Ole Miss also has some injury concerns at RB and at C that could have an impact here.  Meanwhile, I think Kentucky’s offense is going to get a huge boost from Chris Rodriguez returning.  They have really struggled to run the ball, but despite that Will Levis has been great, and it has opened up the offense, but I really see them getting back to the run game against Ole Miss defense which is designed to stop the pass not the run, which is why they rank 50th in epa run defense despite facing an overage opponent ranking 110th in epa run offense.  Kentucky could have some issues pass blocking, but Chris Rodriguez should also help in that aspect, and Kentucky back in that role as a dog, playing with a chip on their shoulder.

Washington -2.5 -120 2.5% play

I like the Huskies here, as Kalen Deboer seems like the real deal as a Head Coach and he took his Fresno State to the Rose Bowl just last year and they upset UCLA 40-37 as an 11 point dog and UCLA has 2 weeks to prepare.  His team is getting much more respect this year and I expec to see some more back and forth but I like Deboer to get the win when you consider Fresno won that game despite turning the ball over 3x.  Michael Penix has been amazing, and UCLA over the last 3 years against a top 50 passing offense is just 3-6.  UCLA also 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 vs. a team with winnign record.  UCLA's offense is going to be a challenge, but 58% of the offense travels through 2 guys - DTR and Charbonet.  I just don't see how you can back UCLA here when their secondary struggled with Colorado's passing attack, and nearly got upset at home by South Alabama.  UCLA has no home field advantage, and Deboer's offense had 550+ yards on this UCLA defense a year ago.  Now Penix and a trio of receivers should be able to get that here.

UTSA -4 2.2% PLAY

Middle Tennessee was the 6th team to pull an outright upset as 18+ underdog last week as they shocked Miami for their biggest win in program history. Those teas are 0-5 ATS the next week and they aren't just not covering spreads they are not doing so by double digits.  I'm not surprised by Miami after that loss at Texas AM when their coach decided to kick field goals the entire team showing no confidence in his team, and the players may have already quit on Cristabal.  MTSU is not a good team in my opinion this is the same team that put up 120 yards on James Madison.  

UTSA is sort of flying under the radar here at 2-2, but they've played by far the tougher schedule wiht thier opponent YPP differential at +0.83 compared to MTSU who is -0.36.  Houston, Army, Texas is not an easy schedule.  Frank Harris should be able to move the ball here, and UTSA's defense has struggled 93rd in YPP, but they've faced an average opponent ypp offense ranked 33rd.  Here they go up against MTSU who ranks 96th, and ranks 122nd in epa run offense, and 73rd in epa pass defense and that comes against an average opponent ranking 90th in epa pass defense.

Major let down spot here for MTSU on a short week.  UTSA roles big and their defense shows some improvement. 

Kansas State +14 1% play

Purdue -16.5 2.2% play

Purdue was my POD last week at Syracuse, and we clearly were on the right side as Purdue outgained the Orange 485-306, and had an 80% post game win expectancy, but unfortunately we lost on a 30 yard pass play as Purdue played zero coverage for some odd reason.  I think Purdue bounces back against a poorly coached FAU team.  FAU is known for running it up against bad teams, and struggling against good teams, particularly against solid defenses.  FAU agaisnt a top 60 ypp defense under Taggart as their head coach has gone 2-9 and have averaged only 13.4 ppg.  Purdue is 53rd and 36th vs. the run, and I don’t see this FAU passing offense being able to take advantage of some of Purdue’s weaknesses in the secondary especially on the road.  On the flip side Purdue’s offense is going up agaisnt FAU’s 104th ranked defense, which I s111th vs. the pass.  All in all it’s just a very bad match up for FAU, and Purdue is clearly hungry for a win after starting 1-2.  I think we are getting a very nice number from 20 down to 16.5 because of Aidan O’connel is questionable.  O’Connel a realtively big name, but not worth this many points to the spread, and he may still start.  If he doesn’t then I see this team rallying for a big blowout win. Austin Burton, the UCLA transfer is fully capable of running this offense and will give Purdue offense more in the running game.