USC -3.5 3.3* play I started getting out in front of fading UCLA two weeks ago when they were lucky against Washington and it was my game of the week last week with Arizona State. Those two games were at home and now this team has to go on the road with a beat up team particurly on the offensive line to face an elite defense. UCLA gave up 9 sacks a week ago and really struggle with elite defenses. USC has an elite defensive front that will cause major issues for Brett Hundley with George Uko and Leonard Williams leading the way. USC players are home in a big rivalry game that means an awful lot in recruiting. I expect USC to dominate as they are playing for their coach who the players adore. USC is just the better team and is more healthy at this point. The offense is well balanced with serious weapons in the passing game with Marqise Lee and Nelson Agholor. UCLA has a lot of strengths on defense and NFL players at each level, but they just can't dominate a game against an offense that can beat you running the ball and passing the ball. This defense is also going to be on the field a lot of this game and will get worn out as UCLA will have a few three and outs early that will set up the tone for the entire game.

]Missouri -3.5 2.2* play[/b]
This line has dropped to inside 4 points and I'm going to jump on it before it goes back up. Johny Manziel is banged up and while he had troubles with LSU last year too his 16-41 224 yards 1 TD and 2 INT performance was as bad as it gets. Now he goes on the road against the SEC's best pass rush. He will put up big yards because Missouri secondary gives up yards, but they are timely allowing just 14 TD on the year and 18 interceptions. Manziel has been known to throw the interceptions by trying to come up with the big play and I think that's what we will see today.

On the other side of the ball Missouri is just too good. A&M has not been able to stop teams that have no balance and only do one thing well now they are being asked to stop Missouri's offense which is top 25 in both passing and running. I expect James Franklin to have a big game connecting with his big receivers and for the running game to continue to work. A&M is 109th in rushing defense allowing 5.3 ypc and they are 79th in opposing QB rating.

Scar/Clemson U58.5 3.3* play[/b]
I leaned towards Clemson, but it just seems like South Carolina has their number. Instead I think the value is on the under here as the total has gone under the last 3 years in a row in this rivalry game with South Carolina covering each one. This is the second highest total int he series and mainly because Clemson has been putting up 40+ points with ease this year, but every time they come across a good defense they struggle and I see much of the same here again. Sammy Watkins and Matavis Bryant go against big corners Victor Hampton and Jiimmy Legree and there just isn't any room to the run the ball for Clemson against the Gamecocks. Clemson also struggles against good pass rushes so expect this to be a low scoring game for Clemson.

On the other side the Gamecocks have been up and down offensively, but when Connor Shaw is in there they are efficient and balanced. However, Clemson is very good in pass defense, so I expect South Carolina to attack the weakness of Clemson's defense which is their run defense. That should slow down the game quite a bit and keep this game under the total again. I think South Carolina wins by a field goal and I definitely see both teams under 30 points in this one. The under 13-6 in Clemson's last 19 road games and 13-6 in South Carolina's last 19 games vs. a winning team.

Syracuse +3 -120 5.5* NCAAF POD
Syracuse is fighting for their 6th victory at home in the Carrier Dome and they'll need to beat a hot Boston College team that suddenly has a Heisman Trophy candidate. Andrew Williams has 2,073 rushing yards and BC will run the ball 66% of the time and when they do pass it they will pass the ball to Alex Amidon 50% of the time. Not a hard offense to figure out which is why they have issues in the red zone and on third down converting only 29% of their 3rd down attempts in conference play and 40% of ther red zone attempts on the road.

Syracuse has a good recipe to come up with the upset in their own building. Syracuse has a nasty front 7 that's capable of dominating a running game. They've only allowed 2.64 ypc at home and only 4 rushing TD's, but what is more impressive is they have not allowed a single running back to get over 100 yards all year long. Marquis Spurill, Cameron Lynch and Dyshawn Davis will have their eyes on Williams all day long. On the flip side Syracuse needs to run the ball to win and BC is allowing 4.21 ypc on the road. The twin duo of Jerome Smith and Prince-Tyson Gulley and the threat of Terrel Hunt running will be enough to move the ball and pick up first downs. This team is better at picking up third downs and in the red zone. BC is allowing 74% red zone TD % on the road this year and they are completely one dimensional. Chase Rettig is a good QB at home, but on the road he's just not good. Syracuse is allowing 145 less yards at home than BC is on the road and I don't think they should be favorites.

Northwestern -3 -120 buy the hook
Illinois strength is passing the ball, but late November is no time to be throwing hte ball in the swirling winds that will rule the Chicago air. Northwestern is excellent in stopping the run and they are great at running the ball led by Treyvon Green who is averaging 5.70 ypc. Add in Cain Kolter who should play tomorrow and you have a recipe for success when you talk about how bad Illinois is on defense. Illinois is allowing 5.65 ypc and they have allowed 29 TD, and they can't stop the pass or turn you over either allowing 21 TD to just 3 INT on the year.

Illinois also comes off their first win in Big Ten play in over 2 years meanwhile Northwestern is trying to get their first win in Big Ten play all year. I have been impressed with this Northwestern team they have gone 0-7 in conference play and all 7 teams have a winning record and now they get a cupcake. Every tough loss they bounced back and were in the next game and I expect nothing less from a Pat Fitzgerald coached team here on Saturday. They won't be going to a bowl game, but they absolutely want to win a conference game and this is just too juicy to pass up. Northwestern is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 following a home double digit loss. Northwestern should win this by double digits but even if they shoot themselves in the foot again Illinois is not capable at all.

[b]Florida Gators +28.5 4.4* EB play[/b]
Classic buy low sell high situation here with the Gators just losing at the swamp to a FCS team and won't be going bowling for the first time since 1979. This team is down, but with there biggest in state rival coming to the swamp this has become their bowl game. I think it's the exact reason they lost last week as the team was clearly looking ahead to this week against Florida State. This game was going to be bigger and better than anything they would have gotten from the bowl selection committee. Better yet Florida State does not need a blow out here. They just need to show up win, and win in the ACC Championship game and they're off to Pasadena to play in the national championship.

Even with all that I still looked under the hood to see if I could really find value on this play. First thing I noticed was Florida State is out scoring opponents 55-11 on average, but this is the best defense they have played all year even if the Gators are without a some of their best players. Florida State really has not faced a team that's capable of stopping the pass. They've faced a few that are good in total defense but none of which are dominant in both and Florida is #1 in pass efficiency defense at home as opponent QB's have a 70.7 QB rating. The second best pass defense at home is 10 points off. Jameis Winston is about to get tested for the first time all season against a top pass defense and he won't have an easy time getting yards on the ground either the way the Gators have defended the run.

Bottom line the ACC is a weak conference and I don't see Winston having a great game with all the criminal accusations going on. I wouldn't be shocked to see Florida have a chance to win this game in the end if they can force some turnovers.

[b]Oregon -23 3.3* play[/b]
The 117th meeting of the Civil War game and there is not much on the line with Oregon State already in a bowl game and not likely to improve which bowl game they get and the Oregon Ducks out of the BCS. Oregon will look to rebound at home after a tough road loss to Arizona and I think they take it out on their in state rival showing the state that you still come to Oregon if you want to compete for national championships. Washington just hung 69 points and nearly 700 total yards with their back up QB against Oregon State on the road. Now that same defense has to go defend marcus Mariota and De'Anthony Thomas combo. Oregon will run wild put 50+ points win this by 30+.

Buffalo +130 5.5* NCAAF POD / Under 51 2.2* bonus
Buffalo will play their game at Ralph Wilson Stadium, home of the Bills on Friday with a chance to face off against Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship on the line. I believe the wrong team is favored here based on perception, because Bowling Green was expected to get back to the MAC Championship, but nobody saw this Buffalo thing happening and now they get a major game at home in an NFL Stadium where it's not easy to play.

Let's get the total out of the way. Both teams possess dominant defenses in MAC play with run first options. Both teams are solid on third down defense and both teams don't turn the ball over. So I expect this to go under the total. Especially since a shot at Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship is on the line which always makes for a better defensive performance.

Buffalo opened the season at Baylor and at Ohio State. It does not get any more difficult than that. They also went on the road to face Toledo as their third toughest game. Meanwhile Bowling Green had Toledo at home and traveled to Indiana and Miss State. SOS on the side of Buffalo and they also have the two best players in this game. Brandon Oliver is a beast and while Bowling Green has been a rock against the run they are allowing 4.48 ypc on the road. Buffalo is running the ball impressively in conference play averaging over 5 ypc, which is better than Bowling Green's rushing offense of 4.87. Buffalo is also defending the run better in conference play and is just near impossible to run on at home allowing just 2.60 ypc. It also helps if you have a threat of throwing the ball.

Buffalo absolutely has that in Joe Licata who has 21 TD to 6 interceptions which are again better than Matt Johnon's 17 and 6. The biggest difference however will come along the offensive line where Bowling Green has had major issues ranking 119th in pass protection allowing over 10% of Johnson's drop backs to result in a sack. Buffalo is 3rd in the nation and have an aggressive front led by NFL prospect Khalil Mack. Buffalo is very good at protecting Licata ranking 19th in pass protection. This will be the difference in the game in my opinion, but it also does not hurt to know that Buffalo also has the advantage in TO margin, red zone TD%, on offense and defense, and they are better in conference play in third down defense holding opponents to only 27% conversions.

Buffalo +130 5.5* NCAAF POD / Under 51 2.2* bonus
Buffalo will play their game at Ralph Wilson Stadium, home of the Bills on Friday with a chance to face off against Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship on the line. I believe the wrong team is favored here based on perception, because Bowling Green was expected to get back to the MAC Championship, but nobody saw this Buffalo thing happening and now they get a major game at home in an NFL Stadium where it's not easy to play.

Let's get the total out of the way. Both teams possess dominant defenses in MAC play with run first options. Both teams are solid on third down defense and both teams don't turn the ball over. So I expect this to go under the total. Especially since a shot at Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship is on the line which always makes for a better defensive performance.

Buffalo opened the season at Baylor and at Ohio State. It does not get any more difficult than that. They also went on the road to face Toledo as their third toughest game. Meanwhile Bowling Green had Toledo at home and traveled to Indiana and Miss State. SOS on the side of Buffalo and they also have the two best players in this game. Brandon Oliver is a beast and while Bowling Green has been a rock against the run they are allowing 4.48 ypc on the road. Buffalo is running the ball impressively in conference play averaging over 5 ypc, which is better than Bowling Green's rushing offense of 4.87. Buffalo is also defending the run better in conference play and is just near impossible to run on at home allowing just 2.60 ypc. It also helps if you have a threat of throwing the ball.

Buffalo absolutely has that in Joe Licata who has 21 TD to 6 interceptions which are again better than Matt Johnon's 17 and 6. The biggest difference however will come along the offensive line where Bowling Green has had major issues ranking 119th in pass protection allowing over 10% of Johnson's drop backs to result in a sack. Buffalo is 3rd in the nation and have an aggressive front led by NFL prospect Khalil Mack. Buffalo is very good at protecting Licata ranking 19th in pass protection. This will be the difference in the game in my opinion, but it also does not hurt to know that Buffalo also has the advantage in TO margin, red zone TD%, on offense and defense, and they are better in conference play in third down defense holding opponents to only 27% conversions.

Iowa +3 -115 4* Early Bird
Before we get into what each team does well lets take a look at strength of schedule. Iowa had to play Northern Illinois in their non conference schedule and have played the 3 best teams in the conference in Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Nebraska has not had to face either Ohio state and Wisconsin and they were completely dominated at home by an over rated UCLA team. In fact Nebraska needed a hail mary to beat the worst team in the Big Ten.

When it comes to match ups this game is all about running the ball and stopping the run so lets start off by looking at run defense. Nebraska has definitely improved, but hidden in their ranking for ypc run defense is the fact that they let 6 teams run for 195+ yards and they have allowed 18 rushing TD's. Iowa has only let 3 teams do that and they have allowed 4 rushing TD's to the two best running teams in the conference (arguably the country). Both Ohio State and Wisconsin are #1 and #2 in YPC and Nebraska just has not had to go up against a team like that.

Okay, so Nebraska has the better running game with Abduallah however it's not by much. The biggest issue here other than Iowa's experienced linebacking crew is the fact that Nebraska has another QB in there. Ron Kellogg will start over an injured Tommy Armstrong. Kellogg is not very good at running the zone option which is what makes Abdualla better than he is. Kellogg does have a strength passing the ball, but now there is significant tape on him and his tendencies after he threw the ball 34 times against Penn State.

In the end this is a Nebraska team that's lucky to be 8-3 and an Iowa team that's hungry to finally beat them in Big10 play. Special teams, and field position will be critical and Iowa has the best punt return game in the Big Ten while Nebraska is last. Nebraska also has issues with turnovers and fumbles. I'm thinking we will see some fumbles as Nebraska tries to run their usual option offense with another new QB.

Miss State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
The Egg Bowl is a huge rivalry game that's back on Thanksgiving and I'm thankful for that. The home team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings and we are catching Miss State as a 4.5 dog and I'm thankful for that. This is a hang over game for Ole Miss who just lost to Missouri on Saturday. Normally when teams suffer big losses they don't have to play 5 day later that's something that comes out of the NFL. Although they don't have to travel they still have to go on the road and that's a very challenging spot for a college team. Miss State is going to have much more energy on a very cold night that better suits their game plan. They are also playing for a bowl game because they are 5-6 while Ole Miss is 7-4. This is the exact opposite case as last year and we saw a Miss State that came out flat, already in a bowl game against an Ole Miss team fighting for a bowl game.

Ole Miss has definitely put themselves back on the map with an exciting offense and a top tier recruiting class. Bo Wallace at QB has been great, but I'm still not sold on him on the road. He's got a 118 QB rating on the road to his 161 at home this year and that's nothing new as he has a 122 on the road last year compared with 160 at home. Ole Miss needs to pass to move the ball and MIss State's secondary has been very good only allowing a QB rating of 119 at home. Throw in the fact that it will be in the 20's and Ole MIss struggled or at least let the weather bother them with drops in last weeks game. I'm just not sold on this offense putting up 30 or 40 points on the road and if they do their defense...

Is very small up front allowing over 5 yards per carry in conference play. They have no talent in the front 4 with solid linebackers behind them. That won't get it done against a run first team like Miss State which has been able to run the ball well. Even though they don't know who they will start at QB. I think that throws more question marks at Ole Miss who will be challenged to put together a defensive game plan. Either way Miss state should be able to run the ball as they are averaging 4.82 yards per carry in conference play and they have played all the big boys including Auburn, LSU, Bama, South Carolina and A&M and in non conference play they played the best out of the Big 12 in Oklahoma State who are 18th in the country vs. the run. To go along with that Miss State has been better offensively in the red zone and that's because they can run the ball. They are also better in third down defense allowing just 28% conversions at home, TO margin and many other key categories.

This is a huge rivalry and very big in state recruiting battle that Ole Miss won last year. I think it will be a big statement for Miss State to win this game so they can say they have won 4 out of the last 5.

Texas -4 3.3* play[/b]
I will take the home favorite in this game. Not only is Mack Brown 7-0 vs. Tech at home, but he's 21-5 following an open date. I think after getting beat by Oklahoma State it's exactly what this team needed. Now it will be back to the drawing board and back to the game plan that got them in position to contend in the Big 12. That game plan is running the football and allowing Case McCoy to be a game manager that will take some shots down field to keep a defense honest. McCoy had 3 INT's in his last game and when this Texas team does not turn the ball over they win games. It helps that the Red Raiders only have 7 interceptions on the year while being -12 in TO margin. You just can't back a team that turns the ball over 28 times on the season. The Longhorns meanwhile are +7 in TO margin with 23 forced and it will be a major advantage for them in this game.

More importantly Texas can get back to what it does best which is running the ball. They are 5-0 when they rush for more than 4 yards per carry which seems like a given on Thursday night. The Tech defense has been decimated in the last 4 games allowing more than 5 ypc in every one and over 275 yards rushing in every game. They just are not very good at stopping the run and there is no way around it. Texas has been cold at times running the ball but they average over 5 yards per carry at home. They struggled in 3 of their last 4 games because they played top 25 defenses. TCU is ranked 13th in ypc run defense, Oklahoma State 18th, and West Virginia is in the top 25 in run defense in their own building allowing just 3.5 ypc which is where Texas played them. Tech comes into this game ranked 82nd nationally and is allowing 5.8 ypc in their last 3 games overall.

Now Tech's passing offense is elite, however it's only because they throw so much. Tech's OL continues to shuffle guys and will be challenged by Texas' defensive front which is ranked 11th in sack %. They are also 26th in opponent QB rating and 49th in yards/attempt. Texas can be inconsistent and have to come up with a way to stop TE Jake Amaro, but with the extra time and Mack Brown being a very good coach when it seems like the world is against him always seems to come up with a win.

Okl St +290 1* / Okl St +10 4.4* BIG12 GOW; UNDER 78 2.2* PLAY[/b]
Okay this is the game of the week and a lot of questions are out there on whether or not Baylor can remain undefeated. There are a few signs that tell me no and I'll break it all done. First lets get the under out of the way. 78 points is just too many points when you look at these two teams whose strengths reside on the defensive side, but are known as high flying offenses. We definitely have an over hyped total here and I'll go on the under. Baylor and Oklahoma State start with the run on offense both teams are top 20 in stopping the run. Both teams are allowing just 32% in third down conversions, and both teams allowing under 50% red zone TD % on defense.

For Baylor this season has been incredible, but only one problem. They have played only two road games. Are you serious? For all of their glory they have struggled in two games despite the final scores. Kansas State on the road and at home against Oklahoma who had them on the ropes for most of the first half. Why does Oklahoma State have a better shot? They are just far more balanced than those two teams and they are at home.

For one they are better at stopping the run and running the ball than Oklahoma. And they can actually pass the ball unlike Kansas State who was missing their top 2 targets. Oklahoma features a QB that can run the ball much like Kansas State's Daniel Sams who had a ton of success rushing. The biggest issue for Baylor is the run defense of Oklahoma State that ranks 18th in yards per carry allowed because Seastrunk is banged up and they are now without Spencer Drango. Baylor will have a hard time also stretching the defense as Oklahoma State are sure tacklers, and ranked 13th in yards/ attempt. Both Oklahoma and Kansas State were top 30 in yards/attempt and gave Baylor issues in the passing game. Oklahoma State though is better than both, and have the better offense. Baylor may win the game but asking them to win by double digits on the road is just too much especially since Oklahoma State is just a bad match up for them and they are on the road in Stillwater where it's going to be in the low 30's possibly some snow and they have not won since 1939.

Okl St +290 1* / Okl St +10 4.4* BIG12 GOW; UNDER 78 2.2* PLAY[/b]
Okay this is the game of the week and a lot of questions are out there on whether or not Baylor can remain undefeated. There are a few signs that tell me no and I'll break it all done. First lets get the under out of the way. 78 points is just too many points when you look at these two teams whose strengths reside on the defensive side, but are known as high flying offenses. We definitely have an over hyped total here and I'll go on the under. Baylor and Oklahoma State start with the run on offense both teams are top 20 in stopping the run. Both teams are allowing just 32% in third down conversions, and both teams allowing under 50% red zone TD % on defense.

For Baylor this season has been incredible, but only one problem. They have played only two road games. Are you serious? For all of their glory they have struggled in two games despite the final scores. Kansas State on the road and at home against Oklahoma who had them on the ropes for most of the first half. Why does Oklahoma State have a better shot? They are just far more balanced than those two teams and they are at home.

For one they are better at stopping the run and running the ball than Oklahoma. And they can actually pass the ball unlike Kansas State who was missing their top 2 targets. Oklahoma features a QB that can run the ball much like Kansas State's Daniel Sams who had a ton of success rushing. The biggest issue for Baylor is the run defense of Oklahoma State that ranks 18th in yards per carry allowed because Seastrunk is banged up and they are now without Spencer Drango. Baylor will have a hard time also stretching the defense as Oklahoma State are sure tacklers, and ranked 13th in yards/ attempt. Both Oklahoma and Kansas State were top 30 in yards/attempt and gave Baylor issues in the passing game. Oklahoma State though is better than both, and have the better offense. Baylor may win the game but asking them to win by double digits on the road is just too much especially since Oklahoma State is just a bad match up for them and they are on the road in Stillwater where it's going to be in the low 30's possibly some snow and they have not won since 1939.

[b]Missouri -2.5 3.3* play[/b]
I think this line is predicated more on what Mississippi finally accomplished against a top tier SEC team in LSU than anything. They followed that up by beating mediocre teams and now have a shot to come up with the biggest win in a long time. Not so fast! Missouri is off 2 weeks rest and preps for the biggest game of the year because it's the next one. They win this game and lose next week against Manziel, but they have everything in line to get to the BCS Championship.

Missouri is just a complete team right now and they really lack any weakness. I was down on the Tigers when they lost their senior QB but now James Franklin is back. Matty Mauk did a decent job, but Franklin is clearly better than Mauk. Franklin gets the right game to come back for because Mississippi is 109th in the country in sack % while Missouri's pass protection is pretty good at protecting their QB's. Missouri's pass defense is led by a 8.74% sack % on the road that should put some pressure on Bo Wallace who has struggled against good pass defenses and has a QB rating that's 30 points lower in conference play.

Missouri can also run the ball and stop the run. They average 5.41 ypc in conference play and allow 3.12 ypc while Ole Miss is 3.67 and 5.16. Missouri is also +14 in turnover margin and should also have a chip on their shoulder because they still fly under the radar and are getting no respect. The big receivers will welcome back Franklin who will actually check down to wide open receivers unlike Mauk and beat you deep in the right spots.

[b]Arizona State -1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Interesting how we have 65% or more of the public coming in on UCLA who is ranked higher than Arizona State but are under dogs in their own building. I'm going with Arizona State here for a few reasons including the fact that they will have some revenge from last year's 3 point loss at home.

The last 2 weeks have exposed UCLA a bit here and this offense that many consider elite is not. They struggle against elite front 7's and that's exactly what Arizona State has. UCLA start 3 freshmen along the offensive line and now they have been letting a linebacker run the ball? Myles Jack has been great and a good story, but he has had some fumble issues that he's lucky have not hurt him. Sutton, Bradfor and Coleman will dominate this game up front. UCLA is allowing Hundley to be sacked 7.21% of his drop backs while Arizona State is 22nd in sack %. That will be the difference in this game as Arizona State's secondary is very good allowing just 53% completions and have 17 interceptions. Hundley was very bad against the other two good pass defenses he faced throwing 1 TD and 4 interceptions.

Okay, so Arizona State flat out dominated Washington at home holding them to 212 yards while putting up 585. UCLA was out gained on a Friday night and were very lucky that Washington turned the ball over 4 times and their QB got hurt too. UCLA was so lucky that they jumped on 4 fumbles in the first half alone including one that Myles Jack lost and kicked 30 yards while two Huskies defenders squandered a chance to jump on the ball. It changed the entire aspect of that game. Arizona State is too opportunistic and is clearly the better team right now. UCLA's secondary is going to struggle and the no huddle offense will wear them down. Arizona State is just more experienced on both sides of the ball and it will show on Saturday. Todd Graham has constantly made adjustments to fit his players strength and I think he deserves coach of the year honors especially if they get to play Oregon for the PAC 12 Championship which is what is on the line in this game.

Notre Dame has won more games against Top 25 teams than anyone else right now as they are 3-0 beating Arizona State, Michigan State and USC. Notre Dame comes off a bye week and have plenty of seniors going in their last home game. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off a bye and are fighting for a better bowl game. Considering BYU stands to gain nothing but another W in the win column the motivation and preparation are on Notre Dame's side. BYU already accepted a spot in the Fight Hunger Bowl and have struggled on the road this year.

Their 3 road games were against Houston, Wisconsin, Virginia where they went 1-2, and they came up with a big win at Utah State who lost Chuckie Keeton. Their win at Houston only came by 1 point where they lost to Virginia and Wisconsin. Traveling east for this mountain team is not something they are very good at. For Notre Dame the difference is in Tommy Rees. The 3 losses have come against elite pass defenses and 2 on the road. Oklahoma's pass defense is far better than BYU's and BYU can not come close to getting to the QB ranking 96th in sack % where Notre Dame is ranked 4th in protecting their QB. I believe with time to throw Rees will make the smart decisions leading to an Irish victory unlike what we saw on Sons Of Anarchy this week.

[b]Boston College pk 3.3* play[/b]
Okay, Maryland got their big win last week at Virginia Tech and they can all breathe a sigh of relief as they are bowl eligible, but now comes the hang over effect against BC. This Maryland team is not good enough to win back to back games even in the ACC. I was not shocked by Maryland's win over Virginia Tech on the road last week, because Virginia Tech had just upset Miami on the road and were clearly not in that game. The story here is can Maryland stop the running game of BC? Andre Williams is leading the nation in rushing and has 634 yards, but on paper looks like he'll be tested today against Maryland who is 16th vs the run from a ypc perspective.

That's smoke and mirrors. Here are the rushing offenses that Maryland "alleged" top 20 rushing defense has faced. 79th, 107th, 118th, 40th (LOSS), 120th, 121st, 82nd, 125th, and 16th (LOSS). The two top 50 rushing attacks they faced they lost by a combined score of 3-83 to Syracuse and Florida State. BC is ranked 10th in yards per carry and has rushed for over 200 yards in 6 of their last 7. Maryland's run defense has allowed 240+ rushing yards in their last 3 home games. This idea that Maryland can stack the box and stop the run is a myth. BC has been running and running well against stacked boxes all year and that's because Chase Rettig is a decent QB. They don't throw the ball often but Rettig to Alex Amidon is a good connection to keep defenses honest. Rettig makes good decisions and has a 144 QB rating with 14 TD and 4 interceptions on the year helping BC to a +6 turnover margin on the year. Maryland however has a -12 turnover margin in conference play and have turned the ball over 14 times in 5 home games. Boston College has a weakness in their secondary however they are 20th in sack %. I think that will allow them to get the win here along with their terrific rushing game.

NC STATE +6 2.2* PLAY
NC State is 25-12 ATS in their last 39 home games and have played well this year at home. The real strength of this NC State team has been the defense and in particular the passing defense which fits into what East Carolina likes to do. NC State has only allowed 3 passing TD's at home and have 8 interceptions. Their recent losses were not as bad as the final scores indicate and they have been in striking distance in the 4th quarter and should be against East Carolina on Saturday. NC State has already gone 0-3 against in state teams this year and they should be fully motivated to win this game to avoid the 0-4 embarrassment.

East Carolina is likely looking ahead as this game does not mean much. Their game next week at Marshall means everything as they'll be fighting for a chance to go to the Conference USA Championship. When you look at East Carolina's schedule it's really been an easy go. They are still a one dimensional offense that is not as good on this side of the ball as in years past, but are much better on defense. In the end I don't think this offense is that elusive as they are 0-2 against the two top 30 pass defenses they have faced. NC State is ranked 21st in opposing QB rating and that should keep them in the game. NC State is still fighting for something and I think they come up with a win.

[b]Navy +3 -115 3.5* play[/b]
Normally I like to fade teams at this point in the year when they are bowl eligible and not fighting for a better bowl game like Navy is. Especially when they are facing a team that's desperate to get bowl eligible like San Jose State is at 5-5. However, Navy has some real revenge in this spot after being shutout a year ago. This Navy team has played really well of late and that will continue to build into this game. San Jose State has some players, but their defense is not even close to what it was last year. They just got done losing to Nevada on the road where they were a TD favorite and they lost by a lot and allowed 300+ yards. I don't think San Jose State can shut down Navy's running game since they are allowing over 5 yards per carry at home.

San Jose State's offense led by QB David Fales has been impressive at some points, but mostly just disappointing. This team can not score in the red zone or convert on third downs. They are converting just 37% of their red zone opportunities into TD's and that can not happen especially when Navy is so good in the red zone scoring 73% TD's in the red zone. San Jose State also turns the ball over too much -2 in turnover margin while Navy is +7. Navy is just a better overall team that wants to revenge the last two years of losses against the Spartans and the Spartans are just a bad football team right now that you can't back in this one.

[b]UNLV +120 3* PLAY[/b]
A bowl game on the for the Rebels against a very bad Air Force team that has only beaten Army this year. Air Force can still put up big rushing yards, but isn't that expected when you run the ball as much as they have? They are not doing it nearly as well as previous years with an average of 277 yards, and over 300/game the last 3 years. UNLV has not been able to stop the run allowing over 5 yards per carry and they are 2-18 in their last 20 road games so that's why we have them as under dogs here. However, 2 of those wins came in their last 3 games against New Mexico and Nevada two teams that Air Force lost to on the road. Air Force also was unable to capitalize against a New Mexico team that was awful vs. the run either as they just are not getting off the field on third down and in the red zone which has always been the key for a military football team. Air Force is allowing nearly 59% conversions on third downs, and 85% touch downs in the red zone. They are also poor on third downs themselves and have a -3 turnover margin, while UNLV is +4.

UNLV has a balanced offense and since Caleb Herring took over at QB (17 TD/ 4INT) they have been rolling until running into 3 good teams in their last 4 games. Still this team has come a long way and a win tonight would be huge as they would become bowl eligible. Air Force really does not have much to play for and will struggle against an offense that can run and pass. UNLV has been good on the road and even played well to open in the Big Ten. When they face a team that can't stop the run they usually win as Cornett will have a big game tonight and UNLV will become bowl eligible. I'm not worried about the snow in the forecast, and Air Force is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. The Extra week of prep will help UNLV in defending the triple option. They have stopped 2 of their last 3 opponents from running the ball so I think they can do enough to win.

Ohio -6.5 2.2* play

[b]USC +4.5 2.75* PLAY[/b]
Stanford has got to be due for a hangover after the mental preparation that was needed to defeat Oregon on the road. I don't care how smart these guys are and it's not like their offense is blowing teams away it's been the play of the defense that has mattered and USC can absolutely match them there especially in their own building. I see USC coming up with a shocking win here as USC poses a completely different threat with the talented receivers and aerial game that they have. Mariotta and Oregon is a finesse team that relies more on the spread and run game than they do a passing pro style offense like USC.

Like I mentioned Stanford won't run away with this one and USC is ranked 22nd in sack % and 24th in run defense with only 1 team rushing for more than 200 yards all year. That one team was Arizona State and it came on the road in Lane Kiffin's last game. This is a completely different USC team and they are allowing less than 3 yards per carry at home. Stanford has to run the ball to win and they tend to play in close games against defense that can match them physically like Utah did. Utah was allowing 1 yard per run more than USC and they got the win. I look for USC to really come up with their biggest win in many years.

[b]Oklahoma St -3 +105 4.5* Big12 GOW[/b]
Texas got a big win in OT against West Virginia and Oklahoma State lost to West Virginia yet Oklahoma State is a road favorite? That's right Oklahoma State is one of the hottest teams in the Big 12 since that loss. They are flying way under the radar on defense. They are ranked 10th in opposing QB rating and 19th in ypc run defense. Which has resulted in 29% conversion rate allowed on 3rd down and 45% TD percentage in red zone while their pass defense gives up yards they have 16 interceptions leading to a +11 turnover margin. Case McCoy plays mistake free games, but he's going to have to pass the ball here to win and he's not that great.

Texas was really lucky because West Virginia turned the ball over 5 times and they still almost lost. Texas now snuck into the top 25 in BCS, but it's not going to last long. I don't think they can over come some of the injuries that have hit the team with 2 linebackers suffering knee injuries and their main man up front in DT Whaley out along with star RB Jonathan Gray and Oklahoma State can absolutely stop the run.

A couple of X factors that are on the side of Oklahoma Stater are special teams and the ability of QB Clint Chelf to run the ball. Oklahoma State has superb special teams returning ability 25.5 yards/kick return and 15.12 per punt. Texas has allowed about the same on the flip side so Oklahoma State will set themselves up in good field position. Chelf has been solid in the running game rushing for 7.7 ypc and had a 67 yarder vs. Texas Tech on the road. Texas has not faced a capable running QB in a while and we all know their struggles as they are well documented. You don't have to go back to the BYU game just take a look at Iowa State's Sam Richardson's 17 carries for 83 yards. This defense is still vulnerable especially vs. an Oklahoma State team that is turning their trips into the red zone into TD's at a 90% clip on the road.

[b]Miami -3 -115 4.5* ACC GOW[/b]
Miami has great value here in my opinion despite playing on the road after back to back wins. Dukes defense has played great all year, but a closer look reveals why. For one they have not faced a balanced offense all year. Miami is a balanced offense even without Duke Johnson ranking 35th QB rating and 40th in rushing ypc. Duke's defense has played mostly no dimensional offenses as they have faced only two top 75 passing teams and two top 75 rushing teams. Neither one of those teams were able to do both and all 4 had a ton of success at what they are good at. The two good rushing teams combined for 574 yards rushing on 110 carries and the two passing teams were 60-83, 786 yards, 8 TD and 1 interception.

Miami can do both and they are an angry team after two tough losses. I expected last weekend's loss against Virginia Tech after they gave everything the week before against an instate rival and ranked Florida State team. They came out flat and had to play a tough Virginia Tech team that features a top 10 defense. Duke is not a top 10 defense and given what I found out through research above they are not even close! Their offense is not great either as their two QB's have combined for 0 TD and 7 interceptions in the last two games despite winning. Miami has an opportunistic defense and is 19th in takeaways. Duke's win over NC State by 18 points was not as big as the box score shows. They were lucky or NC State is just that bad that Duke was able to get 21 points with two six picks and a kick return TD by S Devon Edwards. Miami will not let that happen.

[b]Georgia +4 5.5* NCAAF POD; Georgia +150 2* bonus[/b]
First of all Georgia is still alive in the SEC race for the SEC Championship game which is huge for their motivation in this game. Secondly, Auburn just is not that good and we will break down why. Georgia is the most complete team that Auburn has faced all year and really a bad match up for them, the worst since their 2 TD loss to LSU. Georgia also got an extra week to get healthy and prepare after facing Appalachan State last week. Georgia is getting healthier on both sides of the ball and it's going to pay off down the stretch. Auburn has had the liberty of facing some very bad run defenses. IN fact they have not faced a single top 60 run defense all year long. The best was LSU and we know how that game went. On average they have faced an average run defense ranked 92nd run defense and Georgia is ranked 28th in ypc allowed. This defense as a whole has only gotten better and I think Auburn is a bit one dimensional here so I expect them to struggle. At time QB Nick Marshall has proven he can throw the ball, but is he 100%? I don't think so and when you can get an extra week to scheme for a one dimensional game with the strength of your defense you should be able to come up with some stops and I think that's what Georgia will do.

Defensively, Auburn is not very good they have allowed 4 teams to rush for 5+ypc and 200+ yards. We have seen holes in their defense the last 2 games alone against Arkansas and Tennesse, both one dimensional offenses with passing attacks ranked 114th, and 117th in QB rating. This Auburn secondary gives up big plays against bad teams never mind Aaron Murray. They are last in the SEC in big passing plays allowed with 27 plays allowed of 25+ yards. This is just the second offense that Auburn has faced that ranks top 35 in both rushing and passing offense. Texas A&M being the other and they had 600 total yards and put up 600 yards and Johny Manziel missed 2 series. A&M has one of the worst defenses too and probably would have won that game if Manziel didn't have to miss a couple of series. With that said Georgia's defense is much better as A&M is ranked 107th vs. the run so even though Georgia can put up 41 points I don't think they have to. In the end Georgia just has the right ingredients to pull the upset and I think there is tremendous value based on the Auburn hype which is well deserved but has come against weak competition. Georgia's aggressive defensive play will be the difference as they cruise to a win.

North Carolina +100 3* play
Pitt is off a big win vs. Notre Dame so they are automatically over valued in this game, but North Carolina has quietly moved themselves back into position to compete for a bowl game after a 1-5 start. When you look at their schedule they really have had a tough schedule and have lost to 5 good teams. UNC has really stepped up on both sides of the ball as the defense is now getting a better pass rush 7.84% in their last 3. That's an issue for Pitt because they have not been able to protect Tom Savage (116th in pass protection) and their rushing offense is not good enough to take advantage of North Carolina's weakness which is their run defense. Pitt has averaged 1.91 ypc in conference play and 3.49 overall. They only time they ran for more than 4 yards per carry was against New Mexico, the worst run defense in the nation and Old Dominion.

North Carolina on the flip side has been great on offense despite losing their QB Bryan Renner. Marqise Williams has sparked the running game and has been good enough in the passing game because of the weapons he has at his disposal with TE Eric Ebron and WR Quinshad Davis being two of the best in the ACC at their respective positions. Pitt will be missing two of their CB's so UNC should be able to expose them in some packages and the ability to run as a QB only makes it harder for Pitt to defend. Pitt just got done allowing 5.8 ypc to Notre Dame a team that has not been able to run it all year with any consistency. UNC should be able to score and play defense and come up with a big win to keep their bowl hopes alive.

[b]Washington +3 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
This line looks a bit sketchy and the public is pounding UCLA, but the line is not moving and it's clear to me Vegas is gambling on this game too. Vegas loves the Huskies here tonight otherwise they'd move the line to -3.5 or -4 but it's going to -2.5 in some spots and I'd rather be on the experts side. I will give you information on why it's smart to be betting on Washington here tonight despite what UCLA has done this year.

UCLA offensively behind Brett Hundley have gotten a ton of hype this year, but when they have faced really good defenses they have struggled. Washington has a very physical defensive line and is ranked 19th in opposing QB rating for a reason. Their defense fits in that mold of Oregon and Stanford, who stopped UCLA cold. Washington also gets to the QB at 9.28% of drop backs on the road while UCLA's offensive line has been a weakness this year ranked 92nd in sacked % and has been worse of late. UCLA does not have as much balance as Washington does and I'm not even so sure they have the better QB in this game as Keith Price has been amazing all year. UCLA went to a LB to give them some carries last week and while that made a great story for the media it's not going to be a regular thing. Hundley will have to be the one that carries this team to victory and while he's done it before I don't think he can tonight.. I have seen this offense go cold too many times and they were even struggling for a large part of the Utah game. I think UCLA was even lucky to get out with a win last week against Arizona even though we had UCLA as our Pac 12 game of the week.

Meanwhile Washington is not getting the credit because they are behind Oregon and Stanford in the PAC 12 and have no shot at going to the PAC 12 Championship game. However, their 3 losses which came all in a row were more because of a scheduling spot. You won't see many teams that have to play three weeks in a row against 3 better teams all of which have contrasting styles. Washington moved the ball up and down the field on Stanford and should have won that game as they outgained them by 210 yards on the road while UCLA was outgained at Stanford by 153 yards and could not manage any offense. Washington also held on tight and were within 7 points against Oregon while UCLA was tied at half time fell apart in the 2nd half. I won't be surprised if UCLA gets off to a great start because they have done it for most of the year, but by the end of the game the better team will prevail and that is the Huskies behind next level players like Bishop Sankey at RB and Keith Price at QB connecting with TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Despite losing Kasen Williams they are still only 3 point under dogs? That tells you the story right there just how confident Vegas is in this line. Jaydon Mickens and Kevin Smith also have talent at receiver and UCLA won't be any good on defense vs. a balanced offense like Washington.

[b]Tulsa +13 2.2* play[/b]
Tulsa has some value here. One thing is for sure, Marshall has not played well on the road and have trouble stopping the run. Trey Watts should have a big game here tonight, and there is enough veteran leadership on both sides of the ball with senior LB Shawn Jackson, to come up with a big win. Tulsa has been killed by turnovers, but Marshall is -5 in turnover margin on the road. I think Dane Evans will be better tonight facing Marshall, a team that has not played well on the road. Tulsa has been a perennial contender in this division and they are looking towards the future, but I don't think this team has given up so look for them to try to beat Marshall, a team that has high hopes of being the conference winner this year.

Toledo -4 3.3* play
Toledo runs a spread offense with a great running game, and they have the weapons on the outside to give the Buffalo defense major issues on the road. Buffalo surprised me last week against Ohio, but that gives us great value in this game if they had not won 30-3 over a solid Ohio team we would be looking at a TD spread. Toledo has been able to prepare an extra 3 days for this match up and this game is as big as any all year with the hype of Buffalo coming into this game.

The question is, can Toledo's front 7 stop Branden Oliver, who has been a work horse and a dangerous back. Oliver and this offensive line has not played well on the road averaging close to a yard less in road games. He just faced Western Mich and Kent State on the road both who struggle stuffing the run. The difference between Toledo this year compared with previous years is their defense is stopping the run especially at home. Only 2 teams have rushed for more than 200 yards. One was Navy who runs a triple option that is difficult to prepare for and the other was Florida and that game was in Florida on the road. Buffalo has to travel pretty

San Diego State +7 4.4* Mountain West Game of the Week
San Diego State nearly beat Fresno State in regulation if it weren't for a missed FG and I think they match up well on the road against San Jose here. First of all San Diego State is 9-4 under Rocky Long on the road. People are excited about San Jose again, because they just averaged 6.93 ypc in their last game and if you can combine that with QB David Fales you have an explosive offense, but they played UNLV which ranked 120th in run defense while San Diego State ranks 42nd. It's back to having to pass to win a game for San Jose and that's usually not a bad thing for Fales and co, but.. He's missing his top receiver in Noel Grisby and San Diego State has a 9.41 sack % on the road and their all standing defense disguises coverages and blitzes well and I think it will be enough to confuse Fales who is coming off a bad game against UNLV.
A bigger key in this game is San Jose's ability to stop the run. Adam Muema ran for 202 yards last year on just 25 carries, and San Diego State is averaging 5.10 yards per carry in conference play and is 4-0 when they rush for more than 200 yards. Good for them that SJSU is ranked 101st in run defense and is allowing 6.3 yards per carry at home. They have given up two 300+ yard rushing games and are at a disadvantage starting two freshmen in a new defensive scheme that has hurt them all year. San Diego State leads the conference in time of possession for a reason and have converted nearly 51% of their third downs in conference play and 72% of their possessions in the red zone into TD's. San Jose is at 39% on third down and 36% in red zone TD's. San Diego State's 4 losses have come against 4 opponents who are a combined 31-4.

]UCLA +2 3.3* Late Night Fix[/b]
UCLA is catching value here after the stock has dropped, but all they did was lose games they were supposed to against Oregon and Stanford and they played right with Oregon for a half as it was 14-14 at the half. This is a huge game for the PAC 12 South and the winner will be the new front runners to win it and get to the conference championship. Arizona is getting value here after 3 wins in a row, but that was against three conference opponents who have a combined record of 1-15 in PAC 12 play.
Despite the numbers, Arizona's defense is vulnerable. They may be ranked 37th, but facing the best QB in Brett Hundley is about to uncover that. Hundley is backed by a solid running game led by Jordan James and one of the deepest group of receivers led by Shaq Evans, Fuller and Payton. Remember last year's game where UCLA put up over 600 yards and won 66-10. UCLA also held Arizona to 257 yards.

That's because Arizona leans on Ka'Deem Carey too much and UCLA held him to 54 yards on 16 carries which was the last time an opponent has held him under 100 yards. UCLA's run defense has been fantastic with the exception of the Oregon game who has been the only team that has rushed for more than 4 yards per carry on UCLA. They stopped a good Nebraska one dimensional offense cold on the road. BJ Denker has been solid over the last three games which has led to Arizona being favored, but he's faced pass defenses ranked 110th, 114th and 83rd. UCLA is ranked 37th, and 25th in yards per attempt. In the end UCLA will find balance as Arizona is just too small up front in their 3-3-5 scheme that did not fool Hundley a year ago and won't again here. Jordan James will get back to having a big game running the ball and UCLA will get back to playing like a top 25 team.

Utah +7 4.4* PAC12 GOWUtah's stock could not be lower after back to back losses which was not indicative of how good this team is so naturally come into this game with a ton of value given the amount of hype going on with the Arizona State team that I do not think anyone should trust on the road. People forget that Utah knocked of Stanford which looks even better now that you see what happened to Oregon on Thursday night. These speed teams just do not match up well against the physical and mentally strong teams and that's what Utah has especially at home.

First of all it's worth bringing up that Utah off the bye and a healthy QB in Tyler Wilson will make a world of difference and I expect them to win this game. Arizona State's defense will have their hands full with a balanced offense as Utah has showed in many games this year they can beat you with their passing game behind Tyler Wilson and Dres Anderson catching the ball or behind the running of James Poole who had 22 carries and a 111 yards against Stanford. It is no shock that the running game faltered in the last two games (both on the road) against solid defenses with Utah not having a healthy Wilson.
Arizona State loves to run tempo, but their most glaring weakness is Utah's strength. Arizona State's offensive line has struggled and Utah is 20th in sack %, but has gotten better as the season has gone along and are 3rd in sacks. Arizona State allowed 7.59 sack % in road games. Arizona State is just 37% on third downs on the road while Utah can set them up in third and longs as they can dominate a team up front trying to run the ball. Utah just held USC and Silas Redd to 30 yards on 30 carries.

[b]BYU +8 2.75 * PLAY[/b]
I am a big fan of Wisconsin, but I think they are going to have enough troubles with BYU team that brings unique challenges to the table. I think this is simply a bad match up for Wisconsin that they will have to grind out to get a win. First of all BYU is off an extra week of preparation for their biggest game of the year. Meanwhile Wisconsin dominated Iowa, but suffered a ton of bumps and bruises and a lot of key players are injured and questionable including their two best players on offense and defense. It's not a good time for that to happen because....

BYU is all about tempo ranked #1 with 92.8 plays per game. Wisconsin's defense has been dominated, but struggled with the two tempo teams they faced in Arizona State (loss), and Ohio State (loss). Wisconsin's defense gets loosened a little when you run tempo at them and QB Tayson Hill and Jamal Williams are real threats running the ball. I've really come around on Hill who had struggled because of injuries earlier in the season and could not complete 50% of his passes. All he's done over his last three games is complete 68% of his passes and he's put up big passing numbers against some good passing defense.
BYU can also stop the run ranked 31st in run defense and without a 100% Abbrederis to threaten a secondary Wisconsin's rushing offense become easier to stop.

Okay, Auburn's stock has never been higher while Tennessee's has never been lower and that automatically gives us value in this line. This is Auburn's 2nd road game in a row after they just faced a physical opponent. They are far too one dimensional running the ball 70% of the time as it seems QB Nick Marshall has some type of shoulder injury too. That still won't help Tennessee's rushing defense which is ranked very low, but a closer look and you realize that Tennessee has faced some of the very best rushing teams in Alabama, Oregon, Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina. Auburn is more one dimensional then all 5 of those teams. I'm not suggesting that Tennessee can stop Auburn's rushing offense, but they can certainly play to win this game. Remember they took Georgia to the wire, and they beat South Carolina at home. I'd argue both of those teams are better than Auburn.
The real key to beat Auburn is to run the ball. Arkansas showed last week it can be done easily as they put up 222 rushing yards, but made too many mistakes. Tennessee is backed by the league's best offensive line and are averaging 5.41 ypc at home. Auburn will also struggle to get to the QB, ranked 64th in sack %, TN rarely gives up sacks and giving Joshua Dobbs time to throw will be a dangerous proposition. Tenn is +8 in turnover margin at home and I think they should be able to move the ball just fine while their defense steps up enough to give Auburn troubles. Butch Jones is a very good coach and he's challenged his team this week, and the excitement of upsetting a top 10 team is there. Auburn is not that good even their road win against Texas A&M was flawed when Manziel missed two series because of his shoulder.
Tennessee +8 3.3* play

[b]Penn State +120 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Minnesota is now getting a lot of hype for a one dimensional team that's ranked 6th in rushing play % with 70% of their plays coming as a run. Minnesota has 3 straight wins as they were over a TD under dog. It's no shock they did it against three teams that struggle against stopping the run. Indiana ranked 91st, Nebraska 71st, and Northwestern 61st. Penn State is 49th, but if you take away the Ohio State game they are ranked in the top 15 allowing only 3.14 ypc. Only two teams have rushed for more than 4 yards per carry against Penn State. Both those teams were balanced with a top 10 QB rating. Ohio State ranked 7th and Central Florida ranked 9th. Minnesota just does not have that type of balance at the QB position. That should set things up for Penn State to win this game and stop the run by holding Minnesota under 4 ypc.

Minnesota is 1-2 when they are held under 4 ypc and should be 0-3 with a lucky OT win over Northwestern. Minnesota will have a hard time on third down with their offense as Penn State is 35% in holding teams on third down, but a deeper look and they have held every one dimensional offense that they have faced (5 total) under 30% on third down. All three teams that beat Penn State had a solid running game, but they also had the threat of a passing game and Minnesota does not.

Penn State on the other hand is perfectly balanced with a 51.30% running play percentage. What is hidden in Minnesota's winning streak is their inability to stop the run. They allowed over 6 ypc in back to back games and have allowed over 5 yards per carry in conference play. Penn State's Bill Belton is averaging 5.22 ypc and is coming on strong with 201 yards last week. The thing with Penn State is that they can also pass leading the Big Ten with 253 yards passing per game behind freshmen Christian Hackenberg who is not playing like a freshmen and was the most coveted QB recruit a year ago. He has an NFL WR in Allen Robinson that will be the best receiver Minnesota has faced all year and when teams wanted to throw on Minnesota they've been able to with San Jose and Michigan putting up monster games.

This is just a bad match up for Minnesota a team that has been over achieving. Penn State is as healthy as they have been all year and have solid line backers and corners that can cover led by Jordan Lucas. Overall Penn State is just more balanced on both sides and the overall better team. We get value here because of what Minnesota just did to vegas lines.

Air Force +130 3** play
This is an interesting match up between two teams that are ranked in the top 5 in rushing play %. In that aspect it's a really easy game to break down, because Air Force will run the ball 79% of the time and New Mexico will run it 74% of the time. New Mexico has done a better job with 6.3 yards per carry against an average run defense ranked 81st, while Air Force sits at 23rd in the county 4.9 ypc, but 5.0 on the road against an average run defense ranked 74th. Both offenses have not faced many solid run defenses, but the strength of schedule is definitely on the side of Air Force who had to face Notre Dame, Army and Boise while New Mexico's different opponents are Pitt, UNLV, and TX San Antonio thus far. The critical part to a dominant running game plan is converting on third down and over the last 4 years New Mexico has proven they can run the ball against Air Force and some times even better, but they have not been able to convert on third down. They are only converting 37.5% of their third downs this year, 34% at home and have converted 35% in the last 4 match ups with Air Force. Meanwhile Air Force has converted at 56% in the last 4 match ups vs. New Mexico and has converted 52% of their third downs on the road. Air Force is just better at stopping a one dimensional offense.

To prove it I looked in detail at the rushing defense numbers. Before I get to all the stats that will get you excited about this match up let me point out the one common opponent that these two teams had in their own building. Both teams played Utah State at home with a bunch of other mixed common opponents in between home/away. Utah State average 4.7 ypc vs. Air Force with the threat of star QB Chuckie Keeton on the field. New Mexico allowed 8 ypc at home vs. Utah State without the threat of Chuckie Keeton. Air Force also rushed for more yards than New Mexico did against a defense ranked 10th nationally vs. the run. New Mexico is just that bad at stopping the run ranked 122nd allowing over 6 yards per carry at home. They've faced an average 55th ranked rushing offense with 3 teams falling in the top 30 so you could say they have had a challenging schedule, but Air Force is tougher and they have performed better. Air Force is 94th in stopping the run, but it's 1.5 yards less per carry overall and they've done it against 5 top 30 rushing offenses and an average 37th ranked rushing offense. The Utah State game alone proves Air Force is better at stopping the run. Add in the fact that they are also the better team on third down and I think there is tremendous value on Air Force given how they have dominated this series over recent years winning 5 straight.

With all that said Air Force's running game is just much more challenging to stop and New Mexico has not proven they can win this game even when they do run for 400+ yards (see last year).

Oregon -10 3.3* Showdown
This is probably the game of the week even though I'm more partial to the LSU/Alabama match up. Revenge is a great thing in sports and that's what Oregon has on their side. How can they win this game after losing last year?

For me Marcus Mariota is the key to this game and he's much more polished than a year ago. The passing attack is far better than it was a year ago which seems to have opened up the running game even more. I think Stanford's physical defense will have issues tonight because Mariota has 20 TD and 0 INT's this year. Washington, Utah, and Arizona State all put up 27-28 points on Stanford's defense. 2 of those games Stanford was at home and Oregon should have no trouble putting up 30+ points on Stanford's defense while I don't think Stanford can put up more than 20.

For all the hype Oregon's offense gets their defense is just as good. Nick Aliotti gets no credit as the defensive coordinator, but Oregon's defense is ranked in the top 25 in many defensive categories including yards allowed per play (7th), 13th in red zone defense, 25th in rushing yards per carry, 20th in third down defense and more. In last year's game the Oregon front was banged up with 3 guys having serious injuries. This year they are healthy and according to Stanford head coach David Shaw, "They're bigger, longer, more physical, You can't hold the ball on a 3 man rush because they are getting to the QB."

Oregon is smaller than Stanford, but I think they can crowd the box and stop the run with Keith Hogan at QB and the talent they have in their secondary. The secondary is better than a year ago and they can concentrate their efforts on stopping the run and Keith Hogan is not going to be able to beat them. Many will be hoping for Stanford to pull off the same upset as a year ago, but in the end I just don't think it's possible. Oregon is destined for the national championship this year, because of Aliotti and the defense.

[b]Oklahoma +15 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
All the hype has been on Baylor all year long with their regular ability to put up 70 points on below average defenses. Oklahoma's defense is not great, but it has the right ingredients to stay in this game on both sides of the ball. If you ask your average joe they would probably tell you Baylor throws the ball like crazy, but they are only throwing the ball 40% of the time which is about the same as Oklahoma. Part of that is because they get up early in games, but part of that is because they have a really talented running back in Lache Seastrunk. This rushing offense has not faced anyone that can stop the run with the exception of Kansas State who did hold them under 5 yards per carry. Oklahoma held them under 5 yards per carry last year and are ranked 64th against the run. They will still have issues stopping the run, but this Oklahoma defense is very good in other areas that should help them stay within the 15 points. Aside from Kansas State, Baylor has not faced a team in the top 70 in run defense this year.

Baylor's offensive line which has been terrific has not been tested all year. Here are the pass rushes they have faced with ranks. 88th, 95th, 119, 102nd, 105th. Oklahoma is only ranked 68th, but parlay that with the fact that they are 5th in yards per attempt and Baylor is going to have a hard time getting their big yards over the top. Petty at QB is still low on experience and has not faced a pass defense as good as Oklahoma's. Petty gets lazy with footwork which leads to accuracy issues and I think he is going to have to do something he has not had to do all year which is move the ball down the field without the big plays. Even against Kansas State he had 3 plays that just completely changed the game and Kansas State still had them on the ropes.

Oklahoma will stay in this game by taking one out of Kansas State's game plan. Run the ball and dominate on time of possession. The Oklahoma running game that features a trio of senior running backs and a running QB should be able to move the ball. After all Baylor's run defense that has been so good has only faced one rushing offense ranked in the top 60 in the nation and that was Kansas State which is ranked 40th in yards per carry. They ran for 327 yards, and Oklahoma is better ranking 18th at 5.2 ypc. Oklahoma is also more capable of moving the ball through the air than Kansas State was and even though Blake Bell won't make the big plays he will be smart as he's got a 143 QB rating with 10 TD and 3 interceptions. Oklahoma will move the ball on Baylor's experienced front 7 especially in the second half where their size advantage will take over.

In the end I think Oklahoma comes up short, but this will be a very competitive game that both teams will be up for with extra rest. The road team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 and the dog is 7-3 ATS while Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a bye with their last game being a 14 point win on the road earlier this season against Notre Dame. Oklahoma could and should be sitting undefeated, but they could not get up for a game against Texas, a game they were supposed to easily win. This is a game Baylor is easily supposed to win and that should only motivate Oklahoma.

Ohio +4 4.4* NCAAF POD
Buffalo has won 6 games in a row and those 6 teams have a combined win total of 5 not counting the FCS team they beat. Those 5 wins were either against each other or other FCS teams so it's safe to say that Buffalo has literally beaten nobody. Ohio's resume is nothing to get excited about either, but at least they beat North Texas and Marshall.

Ohio has a balanced offense with an experienced QB in Tyler Tettleton who has a 165 QB rating and he will be the difference because this is the first time in conference play that Buffalo's defense will face a balanced attack. Ohio had a melt down against Central Michigan and still almost hung on. Buffalo relies on their pass rush to force turnovers but Ohio's ranked 8th in fewest sack % at 2.56%. That means that Tettleton should have the time he needs to make decisions to win this game and movet he chains as Ohio is converting 51% of their third downs in conference play. Buffalo is only converting 36%. Ohio's red zone is also good enough to create a major advantage as they've held 4 conference opponents to 46% on just 13 attempts.

Joe Licata is only a sophomore starting at QB and he's been good, but a 139 QB rating and facign an Ohio pass rush that's ranked 4th in sack % and ranked 7th with a 10.53 sack % on the road. I think the weak schedule finally catches up to this Buffalo team as Ohio pulls the game out.

[b]Oklahoma State -1.5 4.4* play[/b]
Texas Tech is ranked 15th while Oklahoma State is ranked 18th and the Red Raiders are at home yet they have moved from a 1 point favorite to a 1.5 point under dog. We have seen this move in the past by Vegas and it usually ends up in a bad way for the home team. Tech just came off an emotional loss at Oklahoma where they played better than I think most people think, but getting up like that for a second game in a row is going to be hard. While Oklahoma State has one blemish on their schedule which was a loss to West Virginia on the road. So wait a minute Tech beat West Virginia by 10 on the road, why are they under dogs in their own building?

Tech has yet to beat a team that will end up in a bowl unless West Virginia or TCU make a run. Oklahoma State just has much more balance with the passing game and now at running back as they found the 6-2 Desmond Roland who has size and speed. Roland will take this game over after a week where he had 26 carries for 219 yards. It's much harder to stop an offense that can beat you with the pass and the run. Tech can not do that. They are 4th passing the ball 64% of the time while Oklahoma State is great against the pass holding opponents to 9 passing TD's and 13 interceptions. They are 7th in pass efficiency defense and have a better shot at getting off the field on third down and holding Texas Tech to FG's instead of TD's.

Last but not least this game is going to be decided by turnovers. Oklahoma State always seems to have a knack for turning teams over as they are +9 in TO margin while Texas Tech is -6.

Arkansas +8 5.5* NCAAF POD / Arkansas +265 1* bonus
Literally nobody believes in Arkansas right now after they were out scored 134-17 in their last three games. All three came against the 3 best defenses in SEC, but now Arkansas comes off the bye playing a team that has just too much confidence after beating Texas A&M on the road and improving to 7-1 on the season in Auburn. Public is betting Auburn 70% of the time in this spot yet the line has been going the other way. I think there is value on Arkansas especially coming off the bye having an extra week to prepare for an Auburn team that is flawed. Auburn is one dimensional on offense and defense struggling bad to stop the pass and pass the ball. Even though Arkansas has been better running the ball I think they will find success passing on Saturday.

Arkansas passing offense is not as bad as it's looked. Brandon Allen's stats look awful but he was battling a shoulder injury for most of the year but has looked better as of late. He was part of 282 yards and 3 TD's vs. A&M at home and I believe Arkansas shoudl be able to continue running the ball effectively. Auburn has had issues stopping the run at times this year and has not really faced a team that's willing to grind out a game. Arkansas had 3.83 ypc at Florida and 4.23 ypc at Alabama and should average over 5 yards per carry on Saturday. On the flip side Arkansas should load the box to stop Auburn who is more predictable running the ball 66% of the time. At least when Arkansas passes they can protect their QB allowing just 6 sacks on the year as the offensive line has played extremely well. Auburn is 66th in pass rush while Arkansas is 18th.

In the end it will be Arkansas getting an early lead at home and using their pass rush with DE Chris Smith and Trey Flowers along with some blitzing from their linebackers. This is Bielema's kind of game and it falls on senior day off a bye with a team at 3-5 that is capable of going to a bowl and

Georgia -2.5 4.4* Showdown
Florida is 0-3 this year against balanced offenses. The highly touted defense has not faced a balanced offense at the swamp in 2+ years so they have gotten by, but facing LSU who ranked 29th passing 35th rushing they lost, Missouri 32/19 they lost, and Miami 38/24 they lost. Now they face Georgia 25/44 and they will lose. Georgia is the better offense out of all three of those teams, and are now getting healthy again.

Georgia will return Todd Gurley who can beat any run defense, and Michael Bennet at WR to offer Aaron Murray some sort of security and option. Georgia had been proving they could run it on anyone without Gurley and now with him back after the bye week it will be able to against Florida whose defense gave up a lot of rushing yards the past two weeks.

Florida's offense wants to ground and pound and put the game in the hands of their defense. They lost Matt Jones, their star RB and are ranked 89th in rushing ypc and face Georgia who is ranked 31st vs. the run. Georgia can stop the run when their is a threat of a pass. Their biggest weakness is in coverage and Florida is not capable of winning that battle. Florida's QB is not good enough, he lacks weapons and the offensive line has struggled and now replacing both of their tackles. Georgia's pass defense can be decent because of their pass rush which has been solid of late and ranks 17th on the year. Florida is 110th in protecting the QB and even worse since Murphy took over as he's being sacked 13.19% of drop backs over the last 3 games. Georgia still has a shot at the SEC Championship game and I won't be shocked to see them there again facing Alabama, but it starts this week.

Mich St -4.5 2.2* play
I got the Spartans here as their defense is legit ranked top 5 in every major statistical category. Michigan's offense is one dimensional and will rely on the run where Michigan should dominate. Michigan at some point will have to try to force the pass and that's where the Spartan defense has been a rock. Michigan turns the ball over too much with 3+ turnovers in 4 of 7 games this year. Devon Gardner's 108 QB rating on the road is not impressive compared to Michigan State's QB who is gaining confidence and has taken care of the football 12 TD to only 2 interceptions.

The difference in this game is going to be the defense. Michigan State can force turnovers and have a short field Michigan can not. Michigan State had issues moving the ball early on due to WR drops and inconsistent play at RB and now it seems like they have corrected that issue and have found consistency with Langford. I see Michigan State dominating this as Mark Dantonio has since he got to Michigan State going 4-2.

Northwestern +6 4.4* Big Ten GOW
Northwestern has 4 straight losses after last weeks devastating loss to Iowa in OT. I am going with the Wildcats again this week against an over rated Nebraska team. One good thing came out of the Iowa game a week ago was that Northwestern was able to run the ball in the second half parlayed by their defense playing their best game all season. Northwestern has tremendous value here this is a team that was putting up 30+ points with ease early in the season before running into some tough defense who can stop the run. Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa are ranked 8th, 7th, and 35th in run defense and that's how Northwestern moves the ball. Northwestern also was without Cain Kolter for a game too, but he seems to be 100% after last week's game. Nebraska's run defense is not very good and rank 65th but have faced an average offense ranked 65th. They faced 1 team ranked in the top 30 in Wyoming who averaged 7.30 yards per carry against them. Minnesota ran for 271, 100 more than the Gophers ran on Northwestern.

That means in my opinion Northwestern's defense is better and is more capable in this spot because Nebraska is a mess. Nebraska's defense lacks any sort of veteran leadership and it's led to poor communication bad tackling and players out of position. They even made the silly mistake of admitting that they "looked past Minnesota." This is not a focused team right now and Northwestern is better then they've shown of late and have played better vs. a tougher schedule. Northwestern came in here and played well in 2011 and I won't be shocked to see them come away with another win.

UAB +4 3.3* EARLY BIRD SPECIAL
This is a classic hang over game as MTSU just upset Marshall on the last play of the game a week ago. Their stock has risen, but I don't see how they are much better than UAB team. UAB is experienced at QB just like Middle Tenn and deep at RB. MTSU's run defense is ranked 96th and allowed both Marshal and North Texas to run at will. That should set up many third and shorts with Darin Reaves and Jordan Howard both averaging over 5 yards per carry. With Austin Brown at QB UAB always has a shot in conference games.

MTSU also has a quality QB in Logan Killgore but Brown is having a better season turning the ball over 6 fewer times than Killgore. UAB has also averaged more yards per rush and are home in this game while they have had a stronger schedule facing LSU and Vanderbilt in non conference games while MTSU has played UNC and BYU.

USC +4 3.3* Friday Night Showdown
This is a bad match up for Oregon State following a physical pounding against Stanford which has a similar defense. Oregon State is a one dimensional offense, they only average 2.43 ypc and will rely on Sean Mannion's right arm. Last week he only completed 4.8 yards per attempts and part was due to Stanford's pass rush as they got to him 8 times. USC's pass rush is better ranked 9th compared with Stanford 27th. USC is also top 15 in yards per attempt and will attack with ends George Uko and Leonard Williams while linebackers Morgan Breslin and Devon Kennard will fly around making plays.

This USC defense is legit holding Utah to 3 points and NOtre Dame 14pts the last two weeks. Oregon State's defense has been inconsistent and they can not simply load the box like Utah did a week ago, because Marqis Lee is probable and Xavier Grimble is back giving USC some serious threats in the passing game with Agholor becoming a star in Lee's absence. Oregon STate has struggled in run defense and are week up the middle. Look for USC to be able to run the ball here as Oregon STate has allowed 4.95 ypc to 5 conference opponents. Even though USC has depth issues I think they are more the complete team while Oregon State is really good at passing the ball and pass rushing they also have many weaknesses and should still be beat up from the Stanford game.

Wash State +11.5 4.4** NCAAF POD Washington State will host high flying Arizona State after a bye week. Wash State has been killed 3 out of their last 4 games giving up 52+ in each and Arizona State comes in and naturally come in as a big favorite, but I'm taking the Cougars who are much better then they are getting credit for. Connor Holliday already has over 3,000 passing yards and 18 TD's, Interceptions have been a problem, but Arizona State's defense should be in for quite a struggle. They have not played an offense that passes this much all season and the closest to that was Notre Dame who beat the Sun Devils. The pass defense has been decent, but not nearly as good on the road and this is only Arizona State's 2nd true road game with the Notre Dame game being on neutral field. Taylor Kelly has a QB rating that's 20 points lower in his two games away from home and last year he had a rating that was 43 points lower on the road. The ASU pass defense also 30 points higher on the road this year. Arizona State won 46-7 last year at home, but they have not won a game in the pacific north west since 2008. It's 40 degrees with a 20% chance of rain tonight and it will be hard for them to win by two TD's with Washington State's offense really starting to click. The main difference for Wash State has been their offensive line that's bigger and stronger and more experienced. Add in 2 weeks to prepare for a defense that has played well at times this year and I think 11.5 points offers tremendous value.

[b]LA Monroe +3.5 3.3* Showdown[/b]
I'm going with LA Monroe in this spot tonight they fully dominated Troy last year and return 17 starters. They are finally getting healthy and are the more capable team when it comes to stopping a passing game. They limited Troy's QB Corey Robinson to 19/34 0 TD and 2 INT's last year and a lot of it is because he's not a mobile QB which makes it much easier to defend. On the flip side LA Monroe has a mobile QB in Kolton Browning who returned last Saturday and was great last year 23/31 275 3TD and 0 INT's.

LA Monroe needs to win some games and had a challenging schedule early playing Oklahoma, Baylor and Wake Forest so their strength of schedule is obviously much tougher than Troy's scheduling of Miss State and Duke. Both teams are top 30 in passing play % so it's going to come down to both QB's and who can make more plays. For Troy they go up against a team that's ranked 29th in opposing QB rating with 118 and limited their last 3 opponents to a 94.2 and are 9th in opposing QB rating. Meanwhile Troy is ranked 114th.

Troy is also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games while LA Monroe is 9-3 ATS int heir last 12 road games.

Memphis +3 -115 5* NCAAF POD
Nearly 70% of the public are on the Cinci Bearcats yet the spread is dropping. I've bet on this Memphis team before and they are much better than their 1-5 record indicates and should win this game. Both teams have top defenses which we will get into more in a second, but Cinci who is ranked 7th in total defense has faced the following offensive teams ranked 121st, 117th, 123rd, 76th, 83rd and 124th. They may have had the easiest schedule to date when you look at the offenses they have faced. Memphis on the other hand ranked 13th has faced 64th, 24th, 45th, 71st, 97th, and 16th ranked offenses.

Memphis defense is legit they are 12th in yards per play, 8th in run defense allowing just 3.1 ypc which will be key against a Cinci rushing offense that is hit or miss, and 23rd in opposing QB rating. They held Houston to 247 yards which was 228 yards less than their season average. That's the same Houston that just went on the road and beat up on Rutgers who was coming off a bye and the same Houston that took BYU to the wire and put up 40+ points on a top 25 defense. They also held UCF to 274 yards which was 161 yards under their total. UCF also already beat the AAC's best team and did so on the road beating Louisville on a Friday night. Memphis should have beaten both Houston and UCF, but costly turnovers and inability to put it in the end zone were the reasons why they did not. Memphis luckily plays a team that turns the ball over just as much as them. Cinci is 110th with 2.5 turnovers per game on the year. Those are elite teams and Cincinnati just is not and they've been bad on the road. They barely got by Miami Ohio 14-0 which is the worst team in FBS. They lost to a bad South Florida team as a 10.5 point favorite and they lost at Illinois 17-45 as a -7.5 favorite. It's not like Illinois is turning the corner either as they lost 44-3 this past weekend to Michigan State.

The good news is we have value on our side because people have some what forgot about how bad Cinci has looked this year because they are off back to back wins against Uconn and Temple two more bad teams. It helps that Memphis record is 1-5 and Vegas knows they can collect big time by putting a low point spread as every average joe will come playing on Cinci. The spread only dropped because sharp money is on Memphis and Vegas wants more money on Cinci because they gamble too and feel they have an advantage with Memphis and perception that Cinci is the better team.

San Diego State +7.5 Fresno State is getting all the hype and many "media experts" are calling for the 13-0 season already. This team has not been tested on the road this year with games at Idaho and Hawaii. Fresno has had struggles in the past on the road and having to play a good San Diego State team is going to be a challenge. Throw in San Diego State having 9 extra days to prepare and they will be ripe for the upset as they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following a bye. This is a San Diego State team that led Oregon State 27-14 in the third quarter at home. Sean Mannion won the game, but it's proof that San Diego State can beat a high flying passing offense on their own turf or should I say grass. They are one of the few teams that still play on natural grass at the SD Chargers stadium. Fresno is 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 games on grass.

Colorado +13.5 4.4* bonus[/b]
There is all kinds of value here on Colorado returning home in PAC 12 play still searching for their first competitive game in PAC 12 play never mind win. They have played arguably the three best teams in the PAC 12 in Oregon, Arizona State and Oregon State. Arizona comes into this game flying high after their win over Utah at home, but that was to be expected as Utah was on a hang over after upsetting Stanford. Utah still gave Arizona a run for their money.

Colorado is not as bad as they've shown they have some talented offensive players a deep group of running backs and an elite receiver in Paul Richardson that will be enough to push Arizona in this game. Colorado's defense has been decent at times holding opponents to 34% on third down and 60% on red zone TD's. Arizona is allowing 83% of possessions in the red zone to turn into TD's so Colorado should be able to score points here as Arizona is 0-2 on the road in the Pac 12 allowing 30+ in both games including 38 to a very bad USC offense.

Arizona has benefited from an easy schedule and while this game is still easy you bet Colorado circled this game with an FCS match up last week they were preparing for this game and should be more fresh than Arizona. Colorado can win this game and have a chance at going bowling so I expect them to be all in. Arizona is not as good offensively as they were a year ago. They are far too one dimensional even if Ka'Deem Carey is a top tier running back Colorado has not been that bad vs. the run allowing 4.14 ypc. They allowed 5.63 to Oregon and 4.76 to Arizona State who both have a passing threat while Arizona does not. BJ Denker is only completing 55% of his passes for 6 yards per attempt. Arizona was actually lucky in their last game that Tyler Wilson got hurt early and threw two picks early that changed the game completely otherwise they probably would have lost.

Texas +2 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Mack Brown said, "it's good we have an extra week off because the team definitely enjoyed the win over Oklahoma past the 48 hour rule." Which is to be expected as the red river rivalry is the biggest rivalry game in college football. TCU unfortunately had to play Oklahoma State last week. The Cowboys were also on an extra week of prep and were just fresher off a bye week in the win over TCU. TCU will have their hands full yet again with a Texas team that's gaining confidence and have their eyes on a Big 12 title which they are certainly in the mix for.

TCU gets Casey Pachall back after he broke his arm to start the season, but it's unknown how much he'll play but even if he does I don't see him being effective. This is the worst offense that Texas has faced all year as TCU is ranked 110th in total yards, they have a zero dimensional offense averaging less than 4 yards per carry, with a 112 QB rating, 29% third down conversions and 56% TD % in the red zone. Texas' defense has struggled at times, but they have definitely righted the ship. They have a ton of talent and with an extra week to prepare against an offense going nowhere, I believe they should dominate.

Offensively TCU has been great, but have shown some weaknesses in pass defense deep. Texas will throw some deep passes to loosen up TCU a bit here and Texas is far more capable of running the ball with the deepest stable of running backs in the country. TCU faced two teams that could run and did so against them. Oklahoma and LSU and Texas ranks in between the two in yards per carry. Texas also has revenge on their minds after losing 20-13 on Thanksgiving last year and would love to get the win to move to 4-0 in the Big 12. Power and toughness is what Texas defense struggles against and that's not TCU which relies on defense and forcing turnovers to win games. Texas is +6 in turnover margin and McCoy is taking care of the ball as Texas has just 7 turnovers on the year.

South Carolina +3 4.4* SEC GOW
Missouri mine as well be under dogs in this game against South Carolina. The line moved to 2.5 at some books with all the public on Missouri after South Carolina choked at Tennessee. Missouri is getting the credit, but really they beat teams at the right time. They faced Florida without their QB and they did it at home, and they beat a beat up Georgia team on the road. South Carolina seriously just has the right balance that Missouri has not faced this year. Missouri has not faced one balanced offense other than Georgia (which didn't have their two starting RB's). South Carolina is 15th in QB rating, and 17th in yards per rush attempt. Dylan Thompson is more then capable of taking the reigns from Connor Shaw. Thompson led the Gamecocks to a big win over Clemson last year and had 10 TD's to 2 interceptions on the season a year ago so he's been in this spot before. He's always been better when he knows he has to start and has a week of practice under his belt which he has this week. Just like Missouri has not faced a balanced offense they have not faced a defense that is top 50 that also is good in offense. Even facing Florida ranked 4th in total defense they put up big numbers. Mainly because Florida could not sustain drives and Florida has a weakness on defense, their pass rush is ranked 80th while South Carolina is ranked 27th. South Carolina is also 18th in total defense to go along with their top 25 offense. This is hands down the best team Missouri has faced and I'm betting on Dylan Thompson and against Matty Mauk this week after being on Missouri in consecutive weeks.

Kansas St -5.5/Texas +8.5 2.75* teaser My Texas reasons are well documented in my NCAAF POD. Kansas State also has an extra week to prepare for this game and should dominate West Virginia up front. Daniel Sams is a different runner than Colin Klein was, but he's capable of carrying this team as he almost did in a shocking win over Baylor as they led in the 3rd quarter. Kansas State will get back their two top WR's in this game in Locket and Thompson which should open up the offense even more. West Virginia is not a team that travels well and gave up 70 to Baylor so I expect Kansas State to control the clock and play defense like they always do.

Texas A&M -17 3.3* bonus[/b]
Vanderbilt just came off a huge emotional win against a crippled Georgia team and is getting more respect than they deserve. Meanwhile A&M comes off another tough loss against Auburn. A&M has value for the first time in a while even at -17 points, because they can actually have success on defense for the first time all season as Vanderbilt will start a freshmen QB for the first time and he has to do it in a hostile environment on the road without a ton of talent. Patton Robinette is not going to have success particularly in the red zone and I'm sure he will have a few three and out as the defense will certainly play a lot of man in this game and stack the box to stop the run.

Vanderbilt's defense dominated Georgia, but that was bound to happen to Georgia with all the injuries they have had. Aaron Murray has never been a good road QB either, but now they have to face a balanced offense that can beat you with the run and the pass. The only other balanced offense Vanderbilt's defense faced was Missouri and they put up 51 points in their own building. A&M is mad about last week's loss and should hang up 50+ on Vanderbilt and I don't see Vanderbilt cracking 20 let alone 30.

Northwestern +4 4.4* EB play[/b]
Northwestern would have been favorites in this game a few weeks ago, but after the emotional loss against Ohio State, a game they could have easily had they had to go face Wisconsin who in my opinion is better than Ohio State. Last week was a clunker against Minnesota without their star offensive player Kain Colter who will return this week to make a huge impact against Iowa a team he's own in the past. Pat Fitzgerald is a good coach and this is a desperate Northwestern team that is better than it looked the last two weeks. I think we get tremendous value here and Iowa never runs any team out of the building.

Iowa has struggled to stop the run against good running teams and Northwestern still fits that bill. Northwestern should have success running on the edge where Iowa has issues containing. Iowa will be without their defensive leader in DE 5th year senior Dominic Alvis. Look for Fitzgerald to take shots in the passing game to loosen up the the run defense and that will be the difference. Iowa's passing game just is not there despite Jake Rudock showing flashes at times he's still only completing 59% of his passes for 11 TD's and 7 interceptions. Northwestern's pass defense is a strength and they are ball hawking with 13 interceptions already. Their weakness is getting beat deep, but Iowa's offense really does not possess the big play ability. Iowa just got done playing Ohio State, and it's really hard to get up for a game after you play Ohio State that just keeps winning.

Boise State +7 -102 4.5* NCAAF POD
These two teams meeting tonight are really similar in a lot of ways. The only thing separating the two is who is home, and the fact that Boise has to break in a new QB after Southwick broke his ankle last week vs. Nevada. Last year it was Boise winning 7-6, and I see more of the same this year.

First of all let me introduce you to Grant Hedrick, the Oregon transfer has more mobile than Southwick (15 carries 192 yards), and will add to Boise's running game. He does not have the arm that Southwick has but he's extremely accurate and he'll give Boise balance that will be tough to defend on Friday night as he has completed 81% of his 37 passing attempts. Boise also is better at protecting their QB ranked 41st in pass protection while BYU is 93rd in sack %. Even with Van Noy roaming BYU has not been able to get a consistent pass rush and they have given up big rushing games in 2 of their last 3 games.

Boise's defense meanwhile is ranked 20th in sack% while BYU struggles at times to protect Taysom Hill who has been sacked 8.49% of his drop backs ranking 107th. Hill and BYU's offense is entirely one dimensional and he often makes mistakes that costs his team and I predict it will happen tonight. He's only completing 50% of his passes and has 8 interceptions on the year. Boise State just got done containing Nevada's Cody Fajaro who is of similar talent. Fajara is not quite the runner, but Boise shut him down 17 carries for 12 yards and Fajara actually is a threat to pass completing 70% of his passes. Boise should be able to dominate on defense and I believe the surprise element of Hendrick gives us value that we wouldn't have had with Southwick behind center.

Kentucky +11 4.4* NCAAF POD; Kentucky +375 1* Nobody wants to go an entire season without a win in their conference especially in the SEC. This may be the most winnable game for Kentucky who is on 12 days rest to prepare to win the one game they have the best shot at. They are 11 point under dogs mainly due to the fact that they have gone 1-5 while Miss State is 3-3. Kentucky's stats are not good, but having to play 4 straight top 20 opponents will make anyone's stats weaker than they actually are. Kentucky had to play Louisville, Florida, South Carolina and most recently Alabama losing 49-7 which set us up well on this spread. Kentucky actually hung in there against Louisville, Florida and South Carolina and I think they will have an opportunity to win against Miss State team that has not been great this year. If Jalen Whitlow was 100% at QB I would probably make this a maximum play. When you look at both teams they are actually rather pretty similar. Both rely to run the ball first and have a two QB system while both defense has struggled to stop the run. I'm not so sure that Kentucky isn't better at both. Their strength of schedule has been brutal compared with Miss State that barely hung on vs. a MAC team in Bowling Green at home. Kentucky has clearly made progress under Stoops although the results do not show it so the public is backing Miss State big and giving us value on the line. I'm not throwing many stats out here because the SOS is just not comparable with Miss State playing LSU and a subpar Okl State team and a decent but over rated Auburn team. It's still worth mentioning that Miss State's defense is allowing 70% touchdowns in the red zone and Kentucky has more of a balanced offense then Miss State does and Kentucky has turned the ball over only 6 times this year. Either way this game should be close and there is a ton of value on Kentucky pulling the upset.

[b]Lafayette -2 3.3* play[/b]
This very well could be the Sun Belt championship here. Arkansas State will make its first appearance on Tuesday night while Lafayette went on the road to beat what I think is a better Western Kentucky team than Arkansas State to continue their trend of going 21-8 ATS int heir last 29 road games. The Rajin Cajuns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 to Arkansas State, but they are the only Sun Belt team they have not beaten the previous two years. However, they won't have to face Ryan Aplin anymore, and their turnover issues which cost them the game last year (-5 in the 50-27 loss) have not been an issue as they are +9 on the season.

Lafayette will runt he ball nearly 60% of the time and they gained 254 yards rushing on Western Kentucky, a run defense that had been playing well. Arkansas State's run defense is one of the worst ranked 117th in yards per carry and is even worse when they are facing a dual threat offense. Terrence Broadway is one of the best mid major QB's in the country and is a dual threat QB backed by a running game with Alonzo Harris having a solid season. Meanwhile Arkansas State thought they had a stud in David Oku, but he's struggling with just 3.92 ypc. Lafayette was able to stop a better rushing attack in Western Kentucky last week and they should have an easier time with Oku than they hand with Antonio Andrews who is a stud.

At the end of the day I'm betting on the better QB with the better running game with the better defense. I'm also betting on a team with a better 3rd down offense and defense and a better red zone offense and defense. Lafayette is also +9 in turnover margin while Arkansas State is +2. It's a small favorite to lay and my formulas love Lafayette as well

[b]Washington State +39 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
I look at this game as a buy/sell situational game. Washington State's loss against Oregon State at home was not nearly as bad as the final score indicated and Oregon's road win against Washington was not nearly as dominating. Yet 70% of the betting public is taking Oregon at this high number. Washington State turned the ball over 6 times late in that game against Oregon State otherwise that game was a game, but allowing 52 points to Oregon State makes this spread about a TD higher than it would have been. I think we are getting value when you look at California being +38.5 here and losing by a half a point. Washington State actually went on the road as -1.5 favorite and beat California by 3 TD's. Oregon also clearly looking ahead in this spot when you you look they have UCLA and Stanford up next and both hold the keys to their season.

Washington state put up 26 and 28 points the last two years and this offense has clearly improved in its second year with Mike Leach as Halliday has improved his completion % by 11% compared to last year. The offensive line has a lot to do with is ranked 17th in sack % compared to last year being among the worst. Washington State can stay in this game as they pass the ball more than anyone else in the league and are good at it. Oregon's pass rush is not as good as a year ago and they have yet to face a team that can pass the ball like this which is ranked 8th in the nation. Washington's defense is nothing to sneeze at either and was extremely young last year yet they only trailed Oregon 23-19 at the half. I expect Washington State to be in this game and getting nearly 6 TD's to play with is even better. The defense has a bigger and stronger and more athletic front 4 than Washington and the secondary has allowed 9 TD's and 11 interceptions so they are not as bad as what many are thinking, but Vegas is squeezing more and more money out of the public, but I wont' fall for it.

[b]Clemson +3 4.4* ACC GOW[/b]
Clemson vs. Florida State is easily the game of the week. Many look at this game and think it's fishy that Clemson is the higher rank and they are under dogs at home. I look at it as the oddsmakers are forever not taking Clemson seriously because they've come up small in this situation so many times, but I think this year is different and we saw signs of it at the end of last year with a huge upset of LSU in their bowl game. Tahj Boyd is the difference and I'll take a senior QB at home over a rookie QB on the road any day even though Winston is a once in a lifetime QB he just has too much confidence right now and is about to get pressured big time.

Clemson has the 4th best sack % led by Vic Beasley and is #1 in third down defense because of it. That's going to be the difference despite Florida State being led by a veteran offensive line. FSU still has allowed 9.68 sack% this year on the road and allowed 8.15% last year. Winston was able to get away with it against BC and Maryland on the road who brings extra guys to get their sacks, but now he will see a different look when he's pressured, because Clemson only brings 4 guys and leaves more in coverage. I'm thinking Winston will make the mistake as Clemson is +9 in turnover margin with 15 forced. They are also penalized less and their offense will confuse a Florida State defense that allowed 34 points to Boston College. Clemson is an elite offense and they will create a ton of deception before the snap with a lot of movement. It really will confuse FSU and set Boyd up in great situations. Clemson already has been tested in a season changing game to open the season and won and they will do it again as they have beaten Florida State at home 5 straight times (3 as under dogs)

USC +3 3.3* play[/b]
Notre Dame off their bye off a big week and USC is on extra rest here too after a coaching change seemed to be just what they needed. I'll say this about USC they seem to just be pretty good at just about everything. Yes they have shown weaknesses in the secondary in their last two games, but they get back Anthony Brown who is their vocal leader in the secondary for the last two years and will help a secondary that despite recent struggles are 28th in yds/att, 47th in completion %, 41st in opposing QB rating, helped by a great pass rush ranked 19th. Tommy Rees struggles vs. good defenses is well documented and Rees does not have a solid running game to hide it.

Notre Dame's running game did show some live, but USC is great at stopping the run ranked 15th in rushing defense. That should set up a lot of third and longs and Rees is only completing 51% of his passes overall. It's obvious this game is important to USC who has not lost on the road to Notre Dame since 2001. They rested several players that probably could have played last Thursday so they'd be healthy for this game, none bigger than Marqis Lee. This receiving corps will give Notre Dame's secondary a ton of issues. USC also can run the ball too with a healthy Silas Redd returning last week. At the end of the day I'm fading Rees who is the guy that has to make the plays for Notre Dame to win.

BYU/Houston Under 63 3.3*[/b]
Okay Houston is a high flying scoring machine once again behind an elite passing offense right? Wrong their large outputs have been due mostly to great field position because of turnovers as they are +14 in turnover margin. BYU is not going to turn the ball over and their elite defense should shut down the rookie QB O'Korn who has been good, but not that good. Houston is only completing 58% of their passes and 39% of their third downs. BYU should be able to keep them in check as they have held opponents better than Houston to just 33% conversions. On the flip side Houston's defense is good enough to force some field goals. BYU's offense is not balanced, but rather one dimensional and Houston's red zone defense has been great holding opponents to just 56% TD's. I also see BYU slowing it down and running the ball more to avoid handing the ball back to the Houston offense. The under is 16-5 in BYU's last 21 games vs. a winning team.

Missouri +3 3.3* play[/b]
This spread is a combination of MIssouri not getting credit for their road win over Georgia, because of Georgia's injuries and the loss of their senior QB James Franklin. For the first reason I would say what has Florida done to be a road favorite against anyone? Florida suffered yet another injury as they lost their RB Matt Jones. Missouri did suffer a big loss with James Franklin going out, but Maty Mauk almost beat him out before the season. Mauk is a tremendous athlete a two time Ohio high school player of the year and a track star. Sure Florida's offense is elite, but they have not seen an offense like this with a running QB and big physical receivers. LSU has a great offense and is probably better than Missouri's offense, but right now MIssouri's defense is better than LSU's defense in my opinion just look at what they did against Georgia on the road compared with LSU.

Florida has no business being favorites in this game as Missouri held this team to 276 yards last year and ironically it was Franklin who cost them the 14-7 loss on the road as 17.5 point under dogs as he threw 4 interceptions. Florida does not have the offensive balance and Missouri's defensive line is ripping up the backfield setting opponents up in 3rd and long. It will be the defense that carries Missouri to a win. They are leading the SEC in turnover margin and have a turnover in 36 straight games. They are also only allowing just 36% TD's in the red zone at home. This is the furthest north Florida has traveled since 1991 and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. a winning team.

[b]UCF +14.5 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
By now it's obvious that Central Florida has clearly had the more challenging schedule early on beating Penn State in Happy Valley and almost beating South Carolina at home. Louisville is the real deal, but we have seen them struggle in two games this year. The first against Kentucky where they allowed them to run for 5.23 yards per carry and watching that game you could see Kentucky was right in that game, but they lost their QB and turned the ball over 3 times. Against Rutgers they struggled too, but Rutgers handed them the win with 4 turnovers and now they face a Central Florida team that is +7 in turnover margin and have only lost the ball 5 times all year.

Central Florida has extra time to prepare for this game and it's every bit as big of a game for them to make a statement. The players and coaches have been staying quiet giving Louisville all the praise, but deep down I know they want to come out and make a state on Friday night so they can get some national respect themselves and have the lead on the BCS spot that the AAC is still entitled to. Central Florida is the best defense Louisville has faced all year and the best offense as they are perfectly balanced on both sides of the ball. They can run the ball, they cans top the run, they can pass the ball and they can stop the pass. All of Louisville's opponents had at least two flaws if not 3 or 4. The schedule has been terrible just take a look at the pass defenses they've faced 108th, 120th, 105th, 104th, and 92nd. Central Florida is ranked top 50 in many of the major pass defensive categories. Louisville's defense which has been so good has faced only one team in the top 75 in yards per carry average and only 1 team that can pass, but never a team that could do both efficiently and that's Central Florida.

So why 14.5 points? Friday night lights, home, Terry Bridgewater and Central Florida coming off a near loss vs. Memphis, but I think Memphis defense is for real and better than people are giving credit. Also I felt Central Florida was a bit hung over from their loss vs. South Carolina in a game that they absolutely had. People keep pointing to Louisville's big win last year in the bowl game, but I still think Florida had absolutely no interest in that game.

North Carolina +10 -115 4* Showdown
Miami being ranked #10 is a joke right now in my opinion and it will show tonight. North Carolina has been so bad this season as well, but they are not as bad as they have looked on offense while Miami is not as good as they looked which means I think we have some value here especially after the public pushed this line up to 10 in some spots.

Both teams come off the bye and North Carolina is saying all the right things. I think Miami's defense has not been tested by a passing game all year because they have not faced a capable attack, but are about to tonight. Larry Fedora will run an up tempo offense mixing in two QB's with Bryan Renner getting 75% of the snaps or more. Renner can make all the throws and the Tarheels have plenty of receiving threats. Miami's defense gave up a lot of points to some bad teams like South Florida who scored 21 points on them. North Carolina always seems to get up for these type of games and with a top 10 team coming into their house for a Thursday night and they have had 2 weeks to prepare... Well I think North Carolina will put themselves in position to steal this game which they desperately need. If Miami did not have an extra week too and a big opponent up next I would be taking the money line on this game.

LA Laffayette +4.5 3.3* Sun Belt GOW
This will be the first time Western Kentucky's defense faces a dual threat QB as they were lucky enough to miss Kolt Browning who had an injury last week. Terrance Broadway is a dual threat QB who had 145 yards rushing against the Hilltoppers a year ago on just 14 carries. He is paired with a couple of good running backs in Alonzo Harris and Elijah Mcguire who are both averaging well over 5 yards per carry. Broadway also has a 158 QB rating as he's averaging 8.8 yards per attempts and has 10 TD's to 4 interceptions. This is every bit of a balanced offense, but it relies on the running game first and that's where they can have success against Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky is 86th allowing 4.7 ypc and they've only played traditional running attacks. If there is no threat of a pass they can absolutely stop the run and have done so this year, but add in a mobile QB that can also pass and I think the Rajin Cajuns will be able to move the ball fine and score some points. They are converting 72% of their red zone opportunities into TD's and 48% of their third downs both numbers are better than Western Kentucky's offense.

Western Kentucky should have it's success too. Lafayette has allowed too many passing yards, but I view the Hilltoppers as a one dimensional offense that doesn't know it yet. They came off a ton of passing yards in their last game and broke a record as Brandon Doughy was 24-36 for 370 yards 2 TD's and 1 interception against LA Monroe. Doughty has been really inconsistent and already has 10 interceptions on the season to go with just 7 TD's. The Hilltoppers are -9 in turnover margin while Lafayette is +6. Lafayette also is very disciplined averaging just 3.7 penalties per game on the road compared to Western Kentucky who is nearly at 7. I just think 4.5 points is far too many for a balanced offense facing a defense that struggles to stop the run. Western Kentucky will move the ball fine, but Lafayette's defense is very good in the red zone only allowing 50% TD's and their biggest weakness which has been special teams coverage will not haunt them tonight as Western Kentucky has one of the worst return games in the country.

Ole Miss +6 5.5* NCAAF POD
70% of the public are all over Texas A&M and I'm scratching my head because this spread does look a little low if you don't know much about each team especially since Ole Miss got all the hype going into Alabama and they came out losing 25-0. Now we get value with Ole Miss as the public are not buying anything they were selling earlier in the season. However, people also forget Ole Miss returns 18 starters from a year ago including 10 on defense. It's the same defense that Johny Manziel played his worst game against last year as A&M was trailing 27-17 to start the 4th quarter before coming back and winning 30-27.

Manziel only completed 17-26 for 191 yards and had 2 interceptions. He'll go up against a Ole Miss secondary that's ranked 2nd in best in the SEC. Meanwhile Texas A&M's defense has been almost embarrassing allowing over 6 yards per carry and too many passing yards. Ole Miss back at home after a tough road schedule while A&M is finally going on the road for only the second time. This could be a rude awakening for A&M that is getting too much hype. Ole Miss can run with senior Jeff Scott and pass with Bo Wallace connecting to one of the best WR duo's int he SEC in Donte Moncarief and Laquon Treadwell. Ole Miss struggled to score in the red zone which really cost them the last two weeks but A&M's defense is allowing 71% TD's there. In the end I think Miss and their no huddle offense has a huge day that not even Johny Manziel can keep up with as Ole Miss will force him into a few mistakes again and come up with a shocking victory on Saturday.

Utah +8 3.3* play[/b]
Utah could easily be sitting at 5-0 after a couple of tough home losses by a combined 10 points mainly due to being -7 in turnover margin. The fact that they still had chances to win those games against quality opponents tells me that this team is very under rated. They are a gutsy group of players that will always play hard under Kyle Whittingham. Stanford comes into this game with some issues on their defensive line which has created some depth concerns that should benefit Utah big time in this game.

Utah has shown their offense has enough weapons led by WR Dres Anderson and an offensive line that has allowed only 7 sacks and a QB in Travis Wilson who can make all of the throws. This is a very dangerous team in a very dangerous environment for Stanford to be playing after they were beat up by Washington a week ago and have UCLA up next. Utah can runt he ball too and stop the run which are a couple of ingredients that will make this game a must watch as I think Utah could come up with a shocker as Stanford peaks ahead to the showdown against ranked UCLA.

Washington +14 4.4* play / Washington +470 1* play[/b]
This is Oregon's most challenging road game in quite some time. Playing in the state of Washington is a stiff task as Husky Stadium is arguably the loudest stadium in the nation. Physical teams give Oregon issues and that's exactly what they face this week.. If you don't think Washington is the real deal go ask Stanford as the Huskies out played the Cardinals a week ago out gaining them by nearly 200 yards and holding Stanford under 300 yards. Washington has enough speed in their secondary and enough strength up front to really come up with something special on Saturday.

Keith Price and Bishop Sankey combo may be the best combo that Oregon's defense has faced in a couple of years. Price is the real deal completing 33-48 for 350 yards against a stout Stanford defense while Bishop Sankey added 125 yards rushing. Washington is a balanced team that's very good in all phases with multiple weapons that can beat you and I don't think Oregon is good enough defensively to stop Washington from being within striking distance all day. Washington is actually #1 in the PAC 12 in total defense so don't sleep on the defense being the reason for why Washington not only covers, but wins this game. They are better on third downs offensively and in the red zone offensively and are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.

Kansas St +17.5 4.4* NCAAF Showdown; Kansas State +700 1* bonus
Okay Baylor is averaging 70 points per game over their first 4 games which all have come at home, but Baylor has not faced a defenses and they have not played a road game. Kansas State is definitely down this year, but they still have the best offenses and the best defense that Baylor has faced season to date and I think we are getting plenty of value here at +17.5. Kansas State would love to get revenge on Baylor who ruined their season a year ago and they can do it with the running game.

Kansas State knows how to control the time of possession especially at home. This team has not had the luxury of playing at home, but looked pretty good almost shocking Oklahoma State last week despite being -4 in turnovers they lost by only 4 points on the road. Kansas State continues to runt he ball because they return 4 of their 5 starters from a year ago and rank 41st with a 4.6ypc, and rank 25th in running play %. They average 5.8 ypc while Baylor has not faced a team yet that even wants to run the ball plus they have been up big in every game. Baylor had issues with dual threat QB Kolt Browning while Daniel Sams is really dangerous for Kansas State and should be poised to have a big game running the ball on Saturday. Kansas State's offense is ranked 7th on third down conversions and have converted well in the red zone. Baylor has yet to have any three and outs ont eh season, but now finally faces a defense as Kansas State was impressive in the second half last week on the road forcing six 3 and outs in the second half against Oklahoma State who always has a very good offense.

I think Kansas State can pull the upset as there are still a lot of unknowns about Baylor. One thing is for sure though Kansas State is tough at home winning 9 of their last 10 home games against the Big 12 while Baylor went 0-5 last year on the road in the Big 12 and 1-4 in 2011 with RG3 under center including a similar road game ranked #15 in the country and favorites they lost to Kansas State 36-35. Kansas State's offense is more balanced this year they are +30 yards passing per game and their pass defense is allowing 46 fewer yards led by a very good senior in Ty Zimmerman who is an All American returnee. Kansas State's receivers Lockett/Thompson combo pose more of a threat than Baylor has faced all year.

Missouri +7.5 4.4* NCAAF EB play Georgia is banged up big time with players missing from the secondary, two star running backs and a couple of wide receivers. Their schedule has been brutal and it just keeps coming at them when Missouri pays a visit on Saturday in a potential upset game. Missouri can definitely relate to having injury issues as that was the story for them last year, but they come into this game healthy and ready to make their mark in the SEC. Missouri's offense is very good and we have seen how average offenses like Tennessee have been able to move the ball on Georgia. Missouri has a senior QB that can run with some speedy running back's and monster WR's with serious size at 6-4, 6-5, and 6-6 led by Dorial Green-Beckham who was the previous #1 WR prospect. For as well as Georgia's offense has played it's about to catch up with them. Missouri is better in 3rd down and red zone offense and they are better in third down defense and red zone defense and they are +5 in turnover margin to Georgia's even mark. Missouri is strong in the front seven and actually out gained Georgia in last years game. Aarron Murray deserves a lot of credit for where Georgia is but it has to catch up to him and facing a shut down corner in EJ Gaines could be the perfect time. Murray has to spread the ball out but he's running out of targets and EJ Gaines is good enough to take away one side of the field while Michael Sam has been a game changer in the pass rush for Missouri. Don't be shocked if Missouri comes out with the upset win.

Cinci/Temple U51 3.3* Play
Say what you want about Temple being a bad team, but this team is not giving up and has played better defense than the stats indicate. Temple allowed Lousiville to score just 30, Notre Dame 28, and Houston 22. Cinci is not nearly as good as those three offenses right now and Temple is among the nation's best in red zone defense allowing just 30% of opponent trips to go for 7 points. It's also not like Cinci has been pushing people around this season and they've struggled in the red zone over their last two games.

Neither team has a big play capability as Temple is 104th in yards per play while Cincinnati is 80th which means long sustained scoring drives not quick TD scores. Cincinnati will lean heavily on their running game too as they have all year 64% of play calls at home are runs and they know that's where Temple struggles. That should keep the clock ticking as Temple may not reach double digits in this one despite starting a new QB in PJ Walker as he was sacked 6 times last week and did not play a full game. Cinci has a very strong front 7 and I'm predicting a score like 31-10 or something.

USC -6 4.4* NCAAF POD USC can finally move on after their bye week after firing Lane Kiffin. Ed Orgeron who was the defensive line coach will take over and players have already embraced him and I think we will see a complete 180 from them on Thursday night at home. One of their best defensive players George Uko said, "We're happy to be out here . . . we really like to go to practice . . . it's fun to be out here now . . . it just feels like there's more energy . . . it's lots of little things." That's huge because it did seem like under Kiffin the players just were not playing for him, but make no mistake about it this defense is very good. They held every other team they faced to 14 points or less before allowing 62 last week which I would just say was a bad game for a team that didn't care about their head coach. Now back at home with extra time to prepare for Arizona team that is completely one dimensional with only a running game and I think they'll dominate. Arizona can not pass and only rely on KaDeem Carey at running back, but USC has been stout against the run allowing just 2.85 ypc at home over three games. Arizona's QB BJ Denker is only completing just 50% of his passes, 2 TD and 2 INT as well as 4.9 yards per attempt. USC will be all over the running game here and should force Arizona into third and longs which they are not capable of converting. USC has held opponents to 31% conversions on third down. USC's offense can run the ball coming up with a 6.7 ypc average in their last game and they get some added depth with Silas Redd back. USC is also more capable of passing the ball as Cody Kessler is completing 63% of his passes for 7.9 yards per attempts with 6 TD and 4 interceptions. Overall we are getting nice value here because of how badly the defense played for USC in their last game. Now they come home with a new coach who they seem to enjoy playing for and they are facing a defense that just gave up 244 rushing yards in their last game with a one dimensional offense. Trojans win big here.

Northwestern +7.5 -115 4.5* Showdown
Northwestern is very very under rated and they have a very good coach. Some may say that Pat Fitzgerald is a top 10 coach giving what he's done with this program. Northwestern had a bye week and before that they had Maine and Western Michigan so there has been plenty of time for this team to prepare for the game of their lives. That's exactly what this is because Ohio State is off 17 straight wins under Urban Meyer and gaining position in the polls. With ESPN Gameday going to Northwestern on Saturday night it would be huge for this program to pull the upset. Ohio State also just came off a big game against Wisconsin and when you look at the common opponent for these two (road trip at Cal) both won and put up very similar numbers. This is just the second road game for Ohio STate and in their first they allowed Cal to move the ball for 503 yards.

Ohio State's defense is still a huge question mark. Most of it was over the young front 7, but they played well last week while the secondary played poorly as Abbredaris had over 200 yards receiving. Many feel Northwestern has the better offense over Wisconsin and I think it's close. Northwestern will present a completely different challenge with a QB that can make plays with his feet and a talented back in Venrick Mark and Treyvon Green. Kain Colter is the runner at QB while Trevor Siemian has the big arm. On the flip side I think Northwestern is experienced on defense in the right spots in the front 7. Their DE Tyler Scott leads the Big 10 in sacks and the linebackers are full of veterans that should get some key stops. Overall this will be the toughest road challenge for Ohio State and I truly think Northwestern can come up with the big upset, but with this spread moving to a TD I'll buy the 1/2 point because Northwestern is 8-3 ATS following a bye week.

Wake Forest +7.5 3.3* play[/b]
This is a huge in state rivalry game for NC State and Wake Forest, but NC State seems to think they are a bit above it even though they have lost 6 straight games on the road in the match up. Wake Forest has won 4 of those as under dogs and will look to continue that trend on Saturday as they look to turn their season around with a huge win over NC State.

I think Wake Forest is under rated as their defense has played outstanding behind the dominating NG Nikita Whitlock. This defense is 37th in pass defense and 12th in takeaways. Meanwhile NC State's offense has yet been able to get a consistent passing attack going with QB Pete Thomas only throwing for 1 TD and 5 interceptions in the process.

NC State will mostly rely on the run for 60% of their play calls but Wake Forest at home is up to the task to stop the run and should remain in the game most of the way. NC St has yet to go on the road this year and though they played Clemson well on a Thursday night they are a different team on the road with an inexperienced QB against a very under rated defense that needs a win. Wake Forest is capable of moving the ball with a good game plan and NC State is allowing 80% red zone possessions to result in a TD.

MTSU +7.5 3.3* NCAAF Play[/b]
East Carolina comes off arguably their biggest win in program history of recent memory as they won on the road against North Carolina as a 12.5 under dog dominating 55-31 so of course this spread is going to be inflated regardless. MTSU just lost on the road to UNC and got dominated against BYU last Friday. However, an extra day of rest can only help them and they did lead BYU 10-7 after the first quarter.

East Carolina's defense has played well against the run, but they have not faced a team that has been capable. I'm not saying MTSU is capable but they have shown at times they can beat you with the running game with nearly 300 yards against FAU. East Carolina's real weaknesses are in the secondary as they lack a pass rush and have issues on third down and in the red zone which makes it hard for me to see them as more than a TD favorite. Logan Kilgore is an under rated QB that had 3 tough road games against very good secondaries. He's is due to rebound in this home game as they pass to set up the run.

Meanwhile MTSU's defense has been great forcing 16 turnovers on the year and have been great on third down allowing 34% conversions at home and 28% red zone TD conversion percentage at home. Part of the reason they have been able to force turnovers is the play of the defensive line which will be able to get pressure on East Carolina that is ranked 110th in allowing sacks on 8.47% of drop backs. MTSU has a 11.76 sack % at home this year.

Tennessee +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD; TN +360 1* BONUS[/b]
Georgia comes off a huge win against LSU and there is no doubt they are due for a let down in this spot. It may not happen and they may win this game, but at some point the injuries this offense has had has to catch up with them. They've been lucky to play some defenses in their own building but now losing Todd Gurley they have some depth issues at RB. I'll get to why I like Tennessee this week in a second, but more importantly I'm just not a big fan of Aarron Murray. Murray is over rated and there is a reason why he's never discussed as a big time NFL prospect. Murray's QB rating is 45 poitns less on the road over his career and though he played well against LSU it was evident LSU's defense is down after losing several NFL prospects a year ago. Murray is in his 4th year as the QB and he's never had to go on the road against the top SEC defenses like Alabama, LSU or Florida and we know how poor he's played against top teams. His one road game against a good defense last year was against South Carolina and the offense struggled putting up just 7 points. Tennessee is flying under the radar and I really like what this defense is doing. They are strong in the front 4 led by some veterans and the secondary already has 11 interceptions 10 of which have come at home. In Murray's only road game this year he was sacked on 12% of his drop backs so the offensive line is suspect on the road.

Tennessee is a dangerous opponent right now for Georgia, because they are strong up front on offense too. Actually Georgia's own coach is calling this offensive line the best in college football as they feature 4 future NFL linemen. Unfortunately for Tennessee they have young receivers and an a first year QB in Justin Worley. However, the running game has been great averaging 5.52 ypc this year behind senior Raijon Neal's 5.85 ypc and Marlin Lane's 6.22. Georgia may have stopped LSU at home, but they allowed some pretty big passing yards in the process. This Georgia front 7 is hardly a rock against the run they allowed their last 4 opponents in 2012 to run for 302, 306, 350, and 239 yards and their first two ran for 197 and 226.

Tennessee can move the chains on the ground and take chances through the air on play action for a balanced attack. That's one of the things Worley has been doing is being more aggressive down field which could create issues for Georgia's defense on the road. Worley should have plenty of time because the offensive line was built to pass protect and Georgia's pass rush is not what it was in previous seasons. Tennessee looked good on the road against Georgia losing 51-44 a year ago as 13.5 point under dogs and I think this defense is better while Georgia's is worse so I think they can actually win this game and shock a ton of people in the process.

Michigan State pk 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Michigan State lost a heart breaker in over time at home last year which is something they clearly remember. Now with the solid win for Iowa over a very bad Minnesota team that was over rated to begin with and a Michigan State loss @ Notre Dame with the offense struggling big time. This game is about running the ball and stopping the run with both defenses ranked in the top 10 with solid running games. Connor Cook has to bounce back for Michigan State at QB following his first road test at Notre Dame. I believe Cook will bounce back after a bye week as this kid has plenty of confidence and the arm to make any play on the field. In the bye week he worked a lot on his foot work and I think we will see it early against Iowa. Cook also has taken care of the ball without throwing an INT.

Michigan State sports the better defense in this one and they are a bit more balanced where as Iowa is 9th in the country with a 66% run play call percentage. Michigan State is #2 allowing just 1.9 ypc. Iowa's success running the ball has set up 3rd and short, but against Michigan State they will have to throw the ball which is not going to be easy. This pass defense is better than in years past as they finally have a guy that can get to the QB on his own in Shilique Calhoun. Iowa does not have the receivers to draw penalties like Notre Dame did as Michigan State caught unlucky breaks from the referees. Jake Rudock is going to have a hard time completing anything the way Michigan State plays defense with press coverage and he already has 4 interceptions.

Both defenses have played one quality offensive opponent this year, MSU played Notre Dame while Iowa played Northern Illinois. Michigan State completely dominated the line of scrimmage on the road against Michigan State while Iowa hosted Northern Illinois and allowed 438. What was also hidden in the Notre Dame game was how well this Michigan State offensive line played. They're ranked 20th in least sack% and only allowed 6 hits on Cook. Iowa's front seven is also very good, but with the week of preparation it makes Michigan State a must play as they are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Special teams is also an advantage for the Spartans as they feature an All-Big10 punter in Sadler who is great at pinning teams inside the 20.

BYU +6 3.3* FNL BYU's defense is good enough to keep them in every game and last year they held Chuckie Keeton to 3 points. I think they will have a little bit of a harder time but Keeton has yet to prove he can put up big points on good defenses (see USC). It has to do more with the talent around him and BYU should be int his game throughout. 6 points is just too much for a dominant defense although BYU's offenses relies on the running game too much they do get Cody Hoffman back this week who is an NFL caliber receiver. Utah State may have the better QB here, but BYU clearly has the better defense and these two teams know each other well being that this an instate rivalry. I don't view the home field advantage to be a huge impact here and BYU will still be able to stop the Aggies on third down as they are defending allowing just 25% conversions on third down while Utah State just allowed San Jose to convert on 50% last Friday. Just too much value here for Mendenhall's defense led by NFL talent with Van Noy leading the way.

Over 61 3.3* Play
Utah and UCLA meet late tonight with two balanced offenses that can beat you in the air and on the ground. It's not shocking that UCLA has those capabilities as they did it well last year and returned mostly everyone on offense with a very deep group of receivers led by Shaq Evans. Utah's defense has struggled agaisnt dual threat offenses including Chuckie Keeton from Utah State. Sean Mannion came in here and just threw his way to victory exposing Utah's secondary. UCLA has been excellent on third down converting at nearly 70% and that transitions well int he red zone where they are converting 71% of those opportunities into TD's. Utah is a tough place to play, but UCLA put up big numbers at Nebraska after a slow start. Tonight they don't have to worry about the early start in a different time zone and should be good from the start. Brett Hundley will have another great game tonight and will be getting more hype from NFL scouts.

However, I can't play the spread on this with 70% of the public feeding on the hype they have quickly forgotten UCLA's struggles. Even at Nebraska it seemed like they were going to have troubles stopping their offense. Utah has a better offense and clearly has turned it around with the dual threat Tyler Wilson leading the show. Wilson is bigger, strongers, faster and he's making better decisions than a year ago. It helps when you bring in a great coach to run the offense like Dennis Erickson. Erickson has led a balanced unit and Wilson has been poised all year long. UCLA's secondary is very beatable. They basically had to start over from last year's team that ranked 82nd and so far this season they are not getting as much push up front and creating sacks. Tyler Martinez who is not known for his arm threw 3 TD's and 0 interceptions against UCLA. Utah is not afraid to throw the ball down field and the speedy Dres Anderson should put up a monster game for Utah keeping them in this battle. They can score in the red zone 9-12 at home this year for 75%. UCLA is allowing 62% red zone conversions, but going against a balanced offense on the road will give them more issues. UCLA allowed 75% red zone TD% last year on the road. I see a ton of points here especially with field position being a big issue. Most of the time these punters out kick their coverage especially in the altitude. I bet Shaq Evans runs one back here for UCLA as Utah is allowing 17.20 yards per return. I think both teams will be set up great on field position if their defense is able to make any stops.

In the end I think UCLA gets a close win, but both of these defenses are too agressive and the offenses are smart enough to counter with play action passes especially UCLA who will run that out of the read option offense and come up with big passing plays. Both teams come off a bye, but it won't help their defense. Mora out of the bye last year gave up 43 poitns on the road while Utah gave up 38 points at home after their bye week last year. Both offenses put up big numbers there too and expect them to benefit the most from the extra preparation.

[b]Washington St +10 -120 4.5* PAC12 GOW[/b]
Stanford won this match up by just 7 points at home last year while Washington State was 9 yards away from forcing over time. Stanford actually has a look ahead game hosting Washington the next week who beat them at home last year, but Washington State is no easy task. First of all they'll play the game at Century Link Field which if you pay attention to the NFL you know it's the most difficult place to play as a road team. Stanford's offense is balanced, but in now way is it dominant and it needs it's offensive line to play well, but in that type of environment it could be tough especially since this game will be on ESPN.

Washington State is big and strong up front and ranked 10th in total defense right now. This team is legit they played well at Auburn, but turned the ball over otherwise they would have won and they went on the road and beat USC and basically shut them out if it weren't for a turnover in their own territory I doubt USC would have scored that TD. Stanford had just 256 yards last year and Mike Bresko's defense is getting a lot of credit right now and rightfully so. The defense actually returns 9 of their 11 starters and is ranked 11th in third down defense where Stanford could have some issues. The biggest reason why Washington State will win or lose this game will be of course the play of QB Connor Holliday who comes in with a lot of confidence completing 75% of his passes over the last 2 games. He's thrown 8 interceptions on the season, but at home he's been much better 9TD to 3 INT's and a 169 QB rating. Stanford has also forced only 4 turnovers this year while Washington State has been much more opportunistic. Even if Stanford gets out to a dominant start Washington State has enough passing offense to come in for the backdoor cover.

[b]Kentucky +12 3.3* play[/b]
Florida came off possibly the worst week any team could have and come into this game banged up. First of all they lost their heart and soul of the defense in Dominique EAsley in practice who is out of the year with a torn ACL and on offense they lost Jake Driskell to a broken leg in the first quarter a week ago. Tyler Murphy was great in relief, but coming in without the pressure because you never thought you would play is different than preparing and then going on the road. There is a reason why Murphy was passed over at Florida many times to play QB and I don't see him being able to take advantage of Kentucky's main weakness which is their secondary. Other than that Kentucky held their own and really should have had a chance to beat Louisville at home. Now they have had 2 weeks off to prepare for this game in what should be a low scoring battle.

Florida is #1 in time of possession but they are not getting points out of that which makes the 12 point spread even juicier. I will most certainly be teasing it with another play if I can find value. Florida is only 7-17 on TD's in the red zone for a 41% success rate meanwhile Kentucky has been great in 3rd down defense allowing opponents to convert just 23% of the time and they shut down Louisville's offense in the red zone allowing just 2-5 which means Florida will most likely spend their time kicking field goals when they get there. Losing Easley on defense is a huge loss and Kentucky runs an up tempo which should catch Florida off guard. I wouldn't be shocked to see Kentucky have Florida on the ropes with a chance to win this game late. Their freshmen RB is getting a lot of hype averaging 9.3 ypc is Jo Jo Kemp and Kentucky's MLB Avery Williamson is leading the SEC in tackles. Florida forced 6 turnovers to get passed Tennesse, but Kentucky will take better care of the ball.

Arkansas +14.5 3.3* play
Arkansas has to be mad and angry that they choked away a 24-7 4th quarter lead last week against Rutgers on the road. The road?? What's that?? That's something Johny Manziel and the Aggies have not seen this year and now they will go on the road to play a physical and mad team. I don't like the match up for the Aggies for a few reasons. First of all people still forget how many players this A&M team lost from last years great team. It was a ton on both sides of the ball and it's been hidden in the early game playing their first 4 at home, but now they are going to struggle a bit here today.

How do you stop Johny Manziel? Have a pass rush! Arkansas has shown in multiple games they can get to the QB. Arkansas has 14 sacks and is 8th in the nation in sack%. Manziel on the road vs. a good pass rush spells trouble in my opinion. Manziel played well against Alabama because they never have a strong pass rush in fact the Crimson Tide are 106th in sack % getting to the QB just 2.83% of his drop backs. His other match ups were against SMU (64TH) and Rice (37th) and Sam Houston, but those were all at home. This Arkansas crowd will help Arkansas get a push and force Manziel into some mistakes in his first road game, because right now this team is just too confident and they shouldn't be.

Partially because they have not held a team under 5 yards per carry this season. I mentioned the 4 teams they faced above and they allowed two of them to average over 6 yards per carry and they allowed that to happen in their own building (Kyle Field) which was getting hype on ESPN as one of the loudest stadiums. Give me a break. Now they go on the road to face Arkansas behind Bret Bielema who is known for wanting to ground and pound. Arkansas is running the ball 70% of the time good for 8th in the country and they are doing it well averaging 5.07 ypc behind Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins. Oh in case you were wondering Arkansas has only allowed 3.01 ypc in their run defense and their pass rush won't allow Manziel to scramble and make those down the field plays he has been used to.

Texas San Antonio +130 2* shocker
We had Rice over Houston last week, and just like the public thought Houston was able to get the win, but if you watched the game it completely changed when Rice lost their starting running back and they still nearly won in the end. Their main issue was that they did not have a capable QB to bring them back from behind, but TX San Antonio does in Eric Soza. This is a dangerous team at home where they have only played once where Soza threw for nearly 400 yards against Oklahoma State. Houston is not as good this year despite their record and I'm not sold on their young QB he was highly inaccurate (15-33) last week which is not a good fit for what Houston wants to do. Rice was still able to put up 463 yards and dominate time of possession on Houston, but had costly turnovers.

LSU +3 3.3* Showdown Play[/b]
This is a very interesting matchup with Zack Mettenberger going back home to Georgia where he started his career. Mettenberger has been excellent this year giving LSU some balance on offense and arguably Les Miles best offense since he's been here. It's still early but Mettenberger is completing 65% of his throws for 11.3 yards per attempts has 10TD to just 1 INT and is backed by Jeremy Hill who is a bruiser at 235lbs that is averaging 8.36 yards per carry this season. Georgia has their own star QB in Aaron Murry, but Murray is just 2-6 in his career vs. Top 10 opponents and I think he goes 2-7 and this is the game where he finally misses his top receiving weapon Malcolm Mithcell who was lost in the season opener.

Both teams come into this game in similar teams. Both are led by a balanced attack and experience on offense with a young defense and it's going to come down to who has the better defensive coaching, who can stop the run to set up third and longs and who can win the special teams battle. In my opinion LSU is the answer to all of those questions. While LSU is very green on the defensive side of the ball they are definitely more talented and have had more success thus far. Clemson and South Carolina were able to do whatever they wanted in the running game and I would argue LSU has more weapons in the passing game as both Odell Beckham Jr and Jaruis Landry have improved their route running and are NFL ready. LSU can force this team into 3rd and long they have a big advantage as Georgia was just 10-28 on third down conversions vs. Clemson and South Carolina. LSU is 32nd right now in stopping the run and is better than Clemson and South Carolina so you know Georgia will have their hands full.
Special teams is a no brainer after Georgia gave up 14 points to North Texas on special teams and LSU perennially has a great group on special teams. Turnovers and 3rd down conversions will also play a key role. Georgia and LSU have had issues getting to the QB so there is no edge there as both lines have protected their QBs too. Where LSU has the advantage is in the red zone where they are allowing just 50% TD's to Georgia's 70%. LSU also has forced 6 turnovers while Georgia has only forced 3.

Iowa -2 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
I have watched all of Minnesota's games this year except one and they have to be the luckiest 4-0 team. We lost ATS in two of those games, but I'm going heavy on Iowa to change that this week. First of all Minnesota has to be able to run the ball to win games and Iowa's run defense is just a perfect match up for us to back, because they are physical enough to shut it down. Iowa is a top 30 run defense right now allowing just 3.36 ypc and 0 TD's on the ground. That has allowed the Iowa defense to be excellent on third down holding opponents to 24% conversions and in the red zone they have only allowed 1 TD on the season for a 16% TD percentage on red zone possessions. Minnesota is a one dimensional offense that won't be able to consistently put up points on the board.

Iowa on the other hand although they have not been great at one thing on offense they have shown at times they can do both. Over the last two games Jake Rudock has gained some confidence completing over 60% of his throws for 4 TD's and 0 INT's. David Fales showed just how leaky Minnesota's secondary is completing 22-35 passes for 439 yards and had a 185 QB rating, but his team just came up with too many mistakes. Iowa has several groups of running backs averaging over 4 yards per carry to balance the attack. They are averaging 50% conversions on third down and they are +2 in turnover margin. Minnesota was not just bad against San Jose State they allowed both UNLV and New Mexico State to complete 70% of their passes. They also allowed UNLV to run for 193 yards averaging 5.68 ypc and Iowa's running game is the best they have seen this year to date.

[b]San Jose State +10 3.3* play[/b]
We backed both of these teams and watched both games last week as Utah State covered on the road against USC while San Jose State looked awful on the road vs. Minnesota. I think we are getting line value here for the home dog on Friday night on ESPN and I'll back San Jose State up. They were in the game against Minnesota as David Fales was able to move the ball, but untimely turnovers were the main reasons for not having a chance to win as it cost them countless times. This defense also did a tremendous job on stopping the run on 1st down, but couldn't after that. Minnesota features a power running game and a big offensive line that Utah State does not. Don't get me wrong Utah State should be able to run the ball tonight, but they are not known for their physicality and I like San Jose State's defense to have a rebound game against the run especially at home.

Utah State's secondary is very vulnerable despite the stats. They have not faced a team that can pass since week 1 where Tyler Wilson lit them up for 302 yards and 2 TD's while this secondary has not picked off a pass all year. DAvid Fales completed nearly 80% of his passes last year on this defense and had 3 TD and 0 interceptions, but the biggest issue was that he took 13 sacks. With 4 of the 5 starting offensive linemen returning I think they remember that game because they allowed 26 all year and half came in one game. I think it was just bad preparation and this offense will be better here. At the end of the day talk about a rough schedule for Utah State. After a tough loss on the road to a physical defense they have to travel on short rest to play San Jose State who wants revenge from last years game where they played right with them. Not to mention Utah State has got to be looking ahead on their schedule as they host BYU next Friday night and then face Boise State. San Jose State still has some value and is 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games.

[b]Virginia Tech +7 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
Virginia Tech nearly lost to both East Carolina and Marshall out of Conference USA so we are getting value in their first game vs. the ACC especially since Georgia Tech had an impressive win over UNC last week and dominated Duke. With Vad Lee at QB they are calling him the "most complete" QB that Paul Johnson has had to run his triple option, but I see a lack of explosive plays with his running game and his 7TD to 1INT are nice passing the ball, but against an FCS opponent and Duke and North Carolina who combine for just 12 sacks and 38 tackles for loss I just don't see them in a 3rd in a long situation where he's going to get pressured. Facing Virginia Tech and Bud Foster's experienced defense will be different for the youngster. Foster's defense already has 16 sacks and 37 tackles for loss led by James Gayle and JR Collins.

Virginia Tech has the experience at linebacker to make the tackles too in Jack Tyler who had 17 tackles in last years match up. This defense is better than last year and I"m still not sold on this Georgia Tech offense behind Lee. Meanwhile an interesting development offensively for Virginia Tech has been the emergence of Chris Mangus who has averaged 6.5 ypc in the running game which has been what this offense has lacked since last year. Mangus can get to the edge and be a game changer. I think he'll get more opportunities tonight to spell Trey Edmunds and he'll make the most of it. UNC rushed for over 4 yards per carry last week and Virginia Tech also has a capable dual threat QB in Logan Thomas. I think this will be an ugly low scoring game, but in the end Bud Foster's defense will force some turnovers from Vad Lee as the inexperienced QB will finally see a capable defense.

Utah +7 3.3* Late Night Fix
Wow BYU dominated Texas in the 40-21 dismantling sending the Texas faithful into a panic. Is BYU that good or did they just catch Texas by surprise? I think they just caught Texas by surprise with Taysom Hill running the option as he ran for over 200 yards. Taysom Hill is still not a very good passer completing just 33% of his passes and the running game that had 550 yards did little to nothing when they ran the traditional running game. Utah comes into this game already having to face Chuckie Keeton who runs the option very well and can throw much better than Hill. Utah kept it in check and won the game. I think the oddsmakers are over reacting on this line as Texas has been soft in run defense dating back to last year when they ranked 86th. Meanwhile Utah is ranked 25th and was 33rd last year. This BYU offensive line is anything but a rock losing some important guys from last year and Hill is not ready to win the game on his own. He locks onto receivers for too long and has poor mechanics. We already saw this team struggle on the road against Virginia's front 7 and Utah's defensive weaknesses are in the secondary.

Just like we can't over react to what BYU did we can't over react to what Sean Mannion pulled off against Utah's secondary. Mannion is a senior with a ton of weapons. BYU has a quality wide out in Cody Hoffman, but that's it. BYU will also have their hands full defensively as Utah's offense has looked great and why not with Dennis Erickson taking over as the offensive coordinator and Travis Wilson looking like a future star. Wilson has been able to throw it and run it and will run an option of his own to get some tough yards. BYU's secondary is also not a strength and Wilson is more capable of beating their secondary than previous opponents. It will also help Wilson that BYU's defense is not forcing turnovers because he had three a week ago. There is a reason why Utah has dominated this series of late winning 4 of the last 5 with their only loss being by 3 points in the last 5 years. I'll take the inflated points and I think Utah can come up with another shocking win before they restart their PAC 12 schedule.

Missouri +1 4.4* NCAAF Play
This looks like a shootout waiting to happen with both offenses averaging over 500 yards per game. I think we get a great line and some value here with the way the media is hitting the SEC's recent out of conference play. Missouri is also considered one of the worst and now Indiana's offense is lighting up the score board getting a ton of hype so it should be an easy win for Indiana right?
I don't think so. Missouri had the worst luck last year not only did they face the second toughest schedule having to face the top 4 teams in the SEC a year ago, but they had injury issues starting in the spring with their QB Johnathan Franklin who is now back looking like the 2011 version. They also lost their star RB in Henry Josey and the offensive line was decimated by injuries with all 5 of the starting group missing at least some time last year. All in all this team went 5-7 considering and now they have been playing with a chip on their shoulder because everyone in the media has destroyed this team for not being able to hang with the SEC.
Take a step back and realize that Indiana has had an easy schedule and yes they played a good Bowling Green team and dominated them, but Bowling Green had a new QB in there and Navy and Indiana State were both able to move the ball on this defense scoring 41 and 35 points. Missouri is more balanced and has better athletes with an experienced dual threat QB. Indiana's defense is in major trouble here on Saturday night considering it gave up 444 yards rushing to Navy this is not a good defense by any means and Franklin should expose them with his arm and legs. I look for Missouri's WR Dorial Green -Beckham to have a great game at 6-6 and 225 lbs he's a handful and is drawing comparisons to Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson.
Don't get me wrong I was impressed with Indiana's offense, but Bowling Green did stop them twice on 4th down on the goal line and Missouri should be able to get off on 3rd down as their strength is the defensive line. Now once again they are flying under the radar because they have just 2 sacks, but this unit is quick and the first teams they faced ran spread attacks and got rid of the ball quick. Missouri had their first two match ups against similar offenses and they have had an extra week to prepare for it. I'd be shocked if we didn't see an improvement and some struggles by Indiana. After all Missouri has 6 interceptions in 2 games a clear indication their defensive line is better than the 2 sacks they have and Indiana is already -2 on the year and is one dimensional. Missouri also has the best player in the secondary for both teams with EJ Gaines who is said to have NFL pedigree. At the end of the day I think Indiana still has a long way to go and I'll take advantage of an early mistake.

Michigan State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD; Michigan State +175 1* bonus
Notre Dame won the last two meetings and has Oklahoma up next while Michigan State has a bye. Michigan State has line value here because despite being 3-0 everyone is saying they haven't played anyone and they have struggled at times. Which is true they opened up the year against Western Mich, South Florida and Youngstown State. However, they had weather issues against Western Mich that stopped their offense from moving the ball and they also played the first 2 games like an NFL pre season allowing the position battles to continue into those games which can create a lot of sloppy play and guys looking over their shoulder, but against Youngstown State we saw the offense start to click as Mike Dantonio named his starting QB in Connor Cook with a ton of confidence.

Connor Cook is a confidenct young QB that is often described as fearless which is a good thing to have going on the road to face Notre Dame. Notre Dame's defense has not played well and their defensive line is not getting the pass rush they were supposed to be getting. Michigan State has recruited some speedier players to play on the perimeter especially in the running game and those are the type of players that have plagued Notre Dame to start this season. Cook was 15-22 for 202 yards and 4TD's against Youngstown before being rested and has plenty of confidence going into this game against a Notre Dame team that is struggling to prevent TD's in the red zone allowing 72% TD percentage this should be a game Michigan State wins, because their defense is that good.

Okay, they have not played anyone, but there is no way a struggling Notre Dame running game is going to get going against Michigan State who is just elite against the run and returns 3 senior linebackers including Max Bullough and Denicos Allen. The Irish are ranked 92nd in running the ball so far this season which means they are going to lean heavily on Tommy Rees who is 15-5 as a starter and that's where I'm confident the Spartans will come out on top.
Rees is 11-0 against teams that have finished their season with 6 or more losses, but against teams with 5 or less losses he's just 4-5 with 13 TD and 12 INT's. Those stats continue into this season and it's clear he can beat the bad teams, but not the good ones. Michigan State has arguably the best defense of Dantonio era. He's got 3 upper classmen in the secondary. I mentioned the experience at linebacker and finally they have a guy that can rush the passer which has been missing from Spartan defenses in the past. Shilique Calhoun is a hell of an athlete and he will lead the pass rush along with Denicos Allen from the linebacking spot which will create turnovers from Tommy Rees. The Spartans so far this year have allowed 34.6% completion percentage and 15.5% third down conversions and should not be phased by coming to Notre Dame because they have been here plenty of times before. Rees started the season facing the 75th, 76th and 113th ranked pass defenses and now he faces Michigan State that was 7th last year and 6th this year. Michigan State was also 3rd in opponent QB rating last year and is 1st this year. The real difference is sack % they were 87th last year and so far they are ranked 13th.

Rice +3 -115 3* Play
It's Rice's turn in Houston right now as Houston is likely to start an 18 year old at QB in John O'Korn who has a lot of potential, but Houston is a work in progress right now especially defensively and that has not yet been exposed by anyone, but in comes Rice who was ranked 41st last year in total yards and already showed how explosive they can be putting up 300+ yards rushing against Texas A&M.
Rice just has too much experience returning from last year with 19 starters including a senior QB and every starting offensive linemen. This is a team that was only down 28-21 on the road at A&M and put up 509 yards. This is a team that progressed big time down the stretch winning their last 5 games including their bowl game. Rice's RB Charles Ross is a bruiser that should give Houston's front a handful at 235lb's he already has 264 total rushing yards. QB McHargue who missed last year is a senior and is dying for a chance to upset Houston. He is probable for this match up and I anticipate that he will start. Meanwhile Houston will be without their starting QB and their starting RB Kenneth Farrow is questionable.
Rice's defensive front is good enough to get into the backfield to put pressure on the 18 year old QB with Cody Bauer and Christian Covington and they have a solid secondary led by senior CB Phil Gaines who led the nation with 18 pass defenses last year and they return an All American freshmen from 2011 that had injuries in 2012 in Bryce Callahan to form a very solid tandem. At the end of the day not much separates these two and Houston barely got by a Temple team that was bad ranking 112th on offense and 93rd in defense last year and wont' be much better this year. Facing Rice on a neutral field for the Bayou Bucket will be a challenge.

San Jose +4 3.3* Early Bird Special
San Jose State is now 20-6 in their last 26 non conference games and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. Minnesota is 3-0, but there is enough hype surrounding this team to get an inflated line. A closer look and you see Minnesota has gotten by with some luck or just really good timing on defense and special teams. Western Illinois was up in the 3rd quarter, UNLV outplayed them in Minnesota, but was sloppy and New Mexico State is nothing to get excited about and now they face a San Jose State team with an extra week to prepare while they look ahead to their Big Ten schedule against Iowa next week.
San Jose State is not going to make the mistakes that UNLV did, they were +8 TO margin last year and are +2 this year and are one of the least penalized teams. They are also led by an elite QB in David Frales who completed 72% of his passes 33TD and 9 interceptions a year ago and they return 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen. Minnesota is in a tough spot because they are also without their starting CB in junior Brien Boddy-Calhoun. Frales and SJSU offense should find balance as Minnesota did allow 193 yards rushing to UNLV.
Minnesota's offense relies on the running game, but San Jose State returns enough key players up front from a unit that allowed just 3.29 ypc on the road a year ago. This team even held Navy under 100 yards and set up teams in 3rd and long holding them to 29% conversions on third down last year. New year new team, but they return enough back to expect similar things and they held their own against Stanford a great rushing team and they held them to 4.80 ypc. on the road.

[b]Boise State +4 3.3* Friday Night Showdown[/b]
Fresno State should be rusty in this game after getting their game postponed last week due to flooding in Colorado. The week before they played against Cal Poly and they opened in a barn burner against Rutgers. I don't see why all of a sudden this team should be favored against Boise State. Fresno State's defense has had a hard time getting off the field already this season allowing 6.09 yards per carry to Rutgers and allowing 172 rushing yards to Cal Poly. Boise comes in with a solid rushing game behind Jay Ajayi, but more importantly the Boise State offense is perfectly balanced with a veteran QB and a veteran solid group of receivers led by QB Joe Southwick and WR Matt Miller. Boise is running the ball 51% of the time and having plenty of success as Ajayi ran for 4TD's a week again against Air Force. Joe Southwick added an impressive 27-29 performance throwing for 287 yards and he's super accurate leading back to last year where he finished the year completing 70% of his passes over the final 4 games. Anyway you look at it he's a better QB than Rutgers Gary Nova who had 5 TD and 348 yards against Fresno State in week 1. Rutgers offense was ranked 106th last year in total yards and shredded the Fresno defense. Boise has the balanced attack to keep them on their toes and should be able to move the ball and score.

On the flip side Fresno is led by a one dimensional game and a very good QB in Derek Carr. However, they have yet to have a 100 yard rusher and Derek Carr has not played well against Boise in his career. We still don't know much about this team and I think this spread is very much inflated due to the fact that they put up 50+ points on a Rutgers defense that was excellent last year, but Rutgers defense was gutted only returning 3 starters and Boise is only going to get better on this side of the ball. Sure Washington put up big numbers, but playing at Washington (who had revenge from their bowl loss against Boise) is a different story than playing at Fresno where Boise has had a ton of success. The Boise secondary has had an interception in every game and I think that will be a key difference in this game. The fact that Fresno is also one dimensional will allow Boise to make some third down and red zone stops. I'll take the road team here tonight because Fresno has not done anything to impress me and I think Boise has enough on offense to win this game.

[b]NC St +14.5 Bovada 3.3* play[/b]
NC State has defeated a top 10 team the last two years on their home field and now they get to do it again at home on ESPN with millions watching. How can they do it? Well they have one of the ACC's deepest defensive lines that should stay fresh this entire game and pay dividends in covering this spread. They are led by defensive end Art Norman who has been a handful for any defense. Clemson's last real game was on 8/31 same as NC State, but NC State has been preparing for this game all summer and I like what Dave Doereen has been saying this week. He's watched all of Clemson's games from last year and this year and I think he's smart enough to put together a plan that will allow them to compete. Doereen came over from Northern Illinois where he was 22-6 as the head coach and never lost a home game.

I also think we get some line value on this line with roughly 70% of the public betting on Clemson based on their Georgia win where they did allow 222 yards on their home field. I think NC State can find a lot of success running the ball with their deep group of running backs. Part of the high public play is due to the fact that NC State before the bye week nearly lost to Richmond, but it was clear they were not showing anything and that they were preparing for this game. They also had 4 turnovers inside the red zone that definitely did not show how they played. Matt Canada is a smart offensive coordinator that has an extra week and he'll mix tempo and no huddle to avoid Clemson subbing players. Canada was responsible for leading the Wisconsin offense last year after three QB changes so he knows a thing or two about game plans. NC State is also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games and 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home vs. a winning road team.

Wisconsin +4.5 3.3* play 100 degree weather, and playing out west and I'm still taking Wisconsin? Wisconsin flew out on Thursday to get used to the time change and this unit is extremely deep at RB with three guys who have gone over 100 yards in each game so far. James White and Melvin Gordon can take it the distance on every carry combining for 1437 yards and 15 TD's a year ago (that was with Montee Ball racking up over 1800 and 23 TDs) and Corey Clement is more of the thumper. Arizona State's weakness is stopping the run because they are very much undersized. They were ranked 81st against the run last year and they never faced a running team like this that will run, run and run some more. Wisconsin will be just too physical and Arizona State allowed 81% TD percentage at home inside the red zone. Joe Stave has looked poised so far against two cupcakes and should have a ton of confidence on play action hooking up with an All Big Ten WR in Jared Abbreuderis. Meanwhile Arizona State does feature a very good offense, but Wisconsin's defense has not given up a point yet this year and was very good last year. They moved to a 3-4 defense this year which seems like they were built for all along and they are anchored by arguably the best LB in the Big Ten in Chris Borland. Before Bret Bielema fled for Arkansas he had been calling this 2013 class his most talented well before he left. I think Wisconsin is smart enough to avoid Arizona's defensive strengths and they'll be able to dominate the time of possession and get out with an ugly win.

Utah -2.5 -120 2.5* play Oregon State won this match up last year despite having just 226 total yards and averaging 1.9 ypc at home. Utah had 4 turnovers and two of them led to two easy TD's in Oregon States own territory. Oregon State has already had major injuries that has chipped away at their depth and the offensive line is major concern which is not good news when you are going on the road against a team that's played well to start and is seeking revenge. Utah's defense also has an All-PAC12 caliber player at each level and their strength is up front which should make things difficult for Oregon State's offense once again. DT Tenny Palepoi and end Reilly and Orchard are already off to a great start making plays behind the line of scrimmage. On the flip side Oregon State's defense has looked vulnerable so far while Utah's offense was impressive against a very good Utah State defense that was top 25 run defense last year returning a ton of players on defense. Although Sean Mannion vs. an inexperienced secondary is an issue for Utah especially when Mannion has weapons in the end I don't trust Mannion on the road. He lost 27-8 at Utah with 3 INT's last time and once again Oregon State's defense gave up 600+ yards to Eastern Washington who had a dual threat QB. Utah's QB Travis Wilson has shown early he can run and pass with over 100 yards rushing he has combined for 668 total yards and looks like the real thing for Utah that desperately needed something positive on offense to help them compete in the PAC 12.

[b]Alabama -7 -120 3.5* NCAAF Showdown[/b]
Alright, I'm jumping on this game early this week before it gets up to 10 points or more. Alabama's schedule really is not fair! ARe you kidding Nick Saban gets an extra week to prepare for a game they lost last year? Are you serious? Saban has a game plan for this game and I expect the Alabama defense to show up big time as well as the Alabama offense. Manziel is an easy locker room bulletin board motivation material. Alabama will be motivated and while A&M has not faced any tough teams yet and could have been preparing for this game too they still had to play the game so Alabama will be much fresher. I also think we are getting value here because Alabama struggled vs. Virginia Tech, but it's not like Virginia Tech's defense is not capable of shutting an offense down especially when you give Bud Foster months to prepare with 9 returning starters. Now Alabama plays a team with just 4 returning starters in A&M who also only returns 6 on offense. Alabama has more starters returning and more depth behind them and have all the motivation to shut Johny Manziel up and I think they will on Saturday.

When Stanford Has The Ball:
Stanford is known for their size and strength and ability to play smart balanced football and that is exactly what they will do here. Keith Hogan is back at QB and has struggled a bit in the early going so I expect them to get him going on play action and I don't think they'll slow down the offense when this turns into a blow out and it will because.... Tyler Gaffney and Anthony Wilkerson will have their way running on Army. Both are senior backs running behind an offensive line that averages 305lbs and returns 4 of 5 starters from last year who are all seniors. This is a huge problem for an Army squad because they are always undersized because of the school they go to. To put things in perspective Army returns just two starting offensive linemen and they average 253lbs. Their defensive line averages less than 250lbs and their linebackers average less than 200lbs. That's amazing and this is the worst team you'd want to face with a significant weight disadvantage so I expect Stanford's offense to click well over 40 points in this one as they work out the kinks before PAC 12 action starts.

When Army Has The Ball:
We know all about Army's triple option attack that the military schools all run because they don't have the size to run a traditional offense. The key is a good defensive front and Stanford has a nasty front 7 again that wins with their physical play. Stanford's defense returns 9 of 11 starters from a year ago and they ranked 9th vs. the run. They also allowed just 27% conversions on third down and 40% TD % in the red zone. Army always has an issue scoring in the red zone and if they score any points they will be field goals in this game. I can't see Army scoring more than 10 points in this game not with the dominance of a Stanford defense and offense that plays physical. Army also has to replace 3 offensive linemen and arguably one of their best QB's in Trent Steelman. This is a rebuilding year for Army while Stanford has mostly a senior laden team.

The Pick:
Stanford -30 2.2* Free Play - We have seen more and more teams now that are ranked in the top 10 win these type of road games with high spreads. They need to impress the computers and increase their ranking. It all matters and David Shaw will have his team prepared to play the early game as they dominate at West Point.