Wyoming +7.5

Temple is one dimensional and although Wyoming has given up chunks on the ground all year long and are ranked 115th in stopping the run Temple has been inconsistent and Bernard Pierce has not always stayed on the field. Wyoming also has had to deal with balanced offenses all year long their only 4 losses came to some pretty good teams TCU, Boise, Nebraska etc. All have better offensive schemes than Temple who is 117th in passing the ball. Wyoming is actually pretty big up front their linebackers are just a little slow, but now this team with extra preparation gets an opportunity to move their safeties up to help in the running game and I think that

Army +7.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This game is pretty cut and dry if you ask me. Both teams know each other extremely well and run the same offense, the triple option. It comes down to who can run the ball and who can stop the run. In those categories these two teams are pretty even. Army a little better at running and Navy a little better at stopping it, but a lot can be said about those stats with strength of schedules and types of offenses each other has played. I look more at their 3rd down and RZ defense can these two stop each other when it counts, and even 4th downs matter in this game because Army has gone for it on 4th down 33 times while Navy 28 times.

Army comes out ahead in most of these key categories and their schedule was not all that easy facing 8 of 11 teams that are bowl eligible. Army ran the ball over 5 yards per carry vs. every opponents but the first when they were 4.91 ypc vs. Northern Illinois. Navy on the other hand was held under 4 ypc twice and 5 another time. Vs. their common opponent Air Force, Navy allowed 5.44 yards per carry while Army allowed 3.31 ypc on 54 carries. In terms of 3rd down conversions Navy comes in at 47.7% while Army 44.9%, defensively Army 49.2% and Navy at 51%, small advantage to Army there, but on 4th down it's a different story, as Army 54.5% conversions and Navy just 46% and defensively Army allowed 37% on 4th down while Navy 61%.

Red Zone, who can turn the possessions into TD's, well Army has 70.45% on their 44 attempts, Navy 43 attempts have 63% TD's and defensively the two are relatively even 75% to 73% in favor of Navy, but Army has only allowed 37 attempts while Navy has allowed 52 attempts. Navy does not have the same LB crew they have had in years past to dominate against the run and Army just seems to be sick of losing 9 times in a row this is clearly their best shot at pulling the upset. I wouldn't say a service academy could have any sort of a let down, but if any team is going to have a let down it's Navy after losing to San Jose State they became bowl ineligible. This game is both Navy and Army's bowl game, but Navy is used to going to a real bowl game in 8 straight years so you have to wonder if they can match the intensity early vs. Army.

Mich St +10 3.3* This is too many points in my opinion as there has not been a single matchup since 2004 that was decided by more than 10 points. Although this line seems a little whacky to me, but I

Fresno State +8 (4.4* play) Despite having nothing to play for I actually like this play a lot. Fresno did not have an easy schedule early on, and they have been in every game with the exception of Boise State. San Diego State does not blow out balanced offensive teams because their defense just is not there. Fresno should be able to keep this within a score all night long. Ryan Lindley has not looked great 13-29 2 TD and an interception vs. UNLV and San Diego State actually had just a 17-14 lead in the 4th quarter. Fresno

LSU -13.5 (2.2* BONUS) I love LSU here I faded them last week in a similar type game as they faced a balanced offense and a team that could play defense. The result? LSU dominated outscoring them 41-3. LSU has not allowed more than 1 offensive TD all year long to any team and they have defeated all 7 of the top 25 teams they've faced now that is domination. That means Georgia will score 7 maybe 10 or 13 points. I see LSU getting into the 30's or high 20's in this game because Georgia's defense is over rated they have not faced any offenses with any sort of a pulse until Georgia Tech last week and Tech is not balanced and they are not as good as years past. LSU looks like a sucker play at -13.5 but they just keep winning and dominating and they are battle tested I think they'll want to put Georgia away early in this one.

Texas +3.5 -120 (4* play) Texas impressive weren

Smiss +14 4.4* - Smiss +450 1* play So we were wrong a week ago when Houston went into Tulsa and dominated, but if you watched the game you saw something very different from what the final score indicated. Tulsa was able to get into the backfield and get pressure on Case Keenum countless times. They could not take advantage of the turnovers and they had several turnovers in the red zone that ended all momentum. Needless to say Tulsa choked and Southern Miss will not. Actually you can argue Austin Dantin and Smiss are better than Tulsa and they

Uconn +9 (5.5* NCAAF POD); Uconn +300 Uconn + and Money Line Before you could really beat Uconn with a solid passing game, but right now Cinci does not have that with Munchie and Jordan Luallen both not completing 50% of their passes this offense has gone into a tailspin since losing Collaros and though they went on the road to beat Syracus last week it was all about Isaiah Pead and Uconn boasts the best run defense in the Big East and they are #3 in the nation. That ranking is legit their front 7 is the best I

Ohio +3.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Just 29% of the public is on the Ohio Bobcats in the MAC Championship game, but I like them to cover and probably win out right. Toledo was the last balanced offense that Northern Illinois faced and they gave up 60 points to them. Ohio will force this game into a slower paced game and Northern Illinois defense which I will admit is under rated was just not the same away from home. They

South Florida +2 -105 (4.2* NCAAF POD) West Virginia really has not looked good this season especially on the road where their defense has been atrocious giving up 31 to Maryland, 49 to Syracuse, 31 to Rutgers, and then rebounding to give up 21 to Cinci (playing without Collaros most of the way). West Virginia had just 16 sacks all year long before tallying 10 a week ago vs. Pitt, but they'll have their work cut out for them South Florida has been sacked just 14 times and it appears they will have BJ Daniels for this game. A game that is not just any game to either team.

West Virginia wants that BCS game and South Florida wants to win and get in. West Virginia has struggled big time on offense when they are rushed by opposing defense and this to me is just a bad match up for them. South Florida is very fast and they're 2nd in the nation in sacks and 2nd in tackles for loss. Their offense on the other hand that many doubt is the 2nd most productive in conference play and is very balanced. This is a defense that simply had a let down vs. Louisville after holding Miami to 6 points. The key is if South Florida can run on West Virginia and I think they can as West Virginia is allowing 4.89 yards per carry compared to 3.07 at home and folks they placed the nation's worst rushing attack in Rutgers and still gave up 31 points. Rutgers does not have a juggernaut passing game by any means so that just goes to show you this is not the same West Virginia defense from years past. South Florida on the flip side can absolutely make what is already a one dimensional offense as they are allowing just 2.48 yards per carry at home. I think their pass rush is the key and I think LB DeDe Lattimore and DE Ryne Giddins will have huge games leading their team to victory.

Before we finish this up let's just go over my favorite stats 3rd down and the Red Zone. It's a crucial aspect of the game when backing a under dog. Can the under dog trade TD's for field goals and in this case they 100% absolutely can. West Virginia is nothing special just 40% overall on 3rd down offensively and on the road 34.5% while USF defense is allowing 34% at home. West Virginia's defense as you guessed on the road is worse allowing 43.94 % conversions. Their offense struggled big time on the road vs. Cinci and Rutgers and USF has a better run defense than Rutgers and are better vs. the pass than both of those teams. Red Zone also advantage for South Florida defensively as they allow just 44% TD's on RZ trips for opposing offenses. West Virginia's offense 64% but 50% in road games. South Florida's offense meanwhile continues to improve in the red zone as they are 60% at home, but 70% overall in their last 4 games. West Virginia's defense allowing 73.68% TD's in their road games this year. On top of all the poor road play they are penalized 7.8 times per game on the road.

Notre Dame +7.5 -115 (4* PLAY)
You know what Notre Dame could easily be 10-1 or even 11-0 if it weren't for all their turnover issues early in the season. They've cleaned that up just 3 over the last 3 games and 8 over their last 7. This is a team that went on the road to USC and won late last season. It's also a team that's better on defense and offense than a year ago when they lost to Stanford which was easily a more even game than the final score indicated. Stnaford went 11-16 completing 69% on third down and Andrew Luck put on a clinic. What will change this year well Notre Dame can stop the run and pass and they are holding opponents to 33.3% on 3rd down no matter where they play. On the flip side Notre Dame is a very balanced offense too.

That's not good for the Stanford defense which has started to flutter - as they have allowed 9 TD passes in the last 4 games. Stanford has only faced two teams that have been able to run and throw in USC and Oregon and they were challenged in both and both teams were able to run. If Notre Dame can run in this game they should hold this TD spread we have here and I think they can, both USC and Oregon were over 6 yards per carry and Notre Dame can do the same. Also the strength of Stanford's defense is sacking the QB well Notre Dame sacked just 8 times all seaason and Michael Floyd should have a hell of a day in what will be a very entertaining back and forth game. I expect Stanford to come out a little flat in this one as Oregon will beat Oregon State earlier in the day and that will Mean Stanford does not win the Pac 12. The Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 match ups with Stanford.

FAU +5 (3* PLAY)
FAU winless on the season and you may be wondering why I would even recommend this game. That's because UAB is not good. They have put up points on many occasions but they just came off a huge win vs. Southern Miss and I don't see them getting up for their last game. FAU will try to send their coach out with a victory and this game gives them a better shot at doing so. UAB is 118th allowing 37 points per game. Sr. Alfred Morris will have a day he averaged 5.25 yards per carry, and UAB allows 5.25 on the season and UAB is allwoing 47.33 % conversions on 3rd down.

More importantly I think is the fact FAU has only played 3 home games. They are much better than their 0-10 record since they had to open up by playing Florida, Michigan State, and then Auburn. They've been close vs. some good teams it's only a matter if their offense starts working because their defense plays well enough to win. Guess what they get their shot as UAB is just awful on defense they gave up 59 on the road to a Marshall team above that's not known for their offense.

Marshall -2.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Marshall can get a bowl eligible victory here, but they can also earn the east crown if Southern Miss falls later in the day. That will allow Marshall to play with a lot of energy here. This is a team that beat Louisville and S. Miss at home and continues to play well here they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home fav .5 to 3. East Carolina has been hurt big time with injuries they have 4 offensive linement that are questionable for Saturday and they lost WR's and 3 RB's. Maybe they can make up for those things in home games, but on the road I don't think so. I expect Marshall to come up with a big win on Saturday especially having 2 extra days to prepare.

This is a defense that gets after the QB they have a ton of sacks and they're led by an NFL talent in Vinny Curry who has 11 sacks himself. They get after the QB particularly at home and that leads to turnovers as they are +9 in TO margin at home while Eastern Carolina is -12 on the season turning it over 31 times this year. This is SR day and Marshall has 15 seniors who will be playing in their last game at home. Don't sleep on the Marshall pass defense as they have played miles better at home holding opposing QB's to a 106 QB rating and 51.8% . East Carolina can't run the ball just 3 yards per carry on the road while their defense allows 5.05 so expect Marshall to be running a lot with Tron Martinez they are very capable of dominating a team on the ground.

Last edge will be field advantage and it's a huge edge. East Carolina dead last in net punting averaging just 29.1 yards per punt and they are last in punt return defense. Marshall averages over 11 yards per return so I expect great field position for Marshall all day long which should lead to points and a victory.

Uconn +3.5 -120 (3.5* play)
Just 29% of the public bet are buying the Huskies right now, because of what Rutgers did last week, but in reality they really got lucky with Zach Collaros being out with an injury and we were all over Rutgers at +3 as our play of the week. This week we will fade the Scarlet Knights as the roller coaster Big East continues. Uconn needs a win to stay alive for a bowl game and Rutgers is due for a bit of a let down here while Uconn will try to have revenge on their 3 point loss at Rutgers a year ago.

Uconn may have the best defensive line in the Big East. They are really talented allowing 93 ypg on the ground and just 2.63 yards per carry on the ground. I really don't see Jamison doing what he did to Cinci in back to back weeks. Uconn will not miss tackles and this game will get turned over to Rutgers suspect passing game. That will allow Uconn to win via the turnover as they are +2 at home. Rutgers is 111th in the running game just a FYI.

Rutgers defense has been stout but I believe Uconn's running game can have some success as Lyle McCombs 4.33 ypc should come into effect at home as a closer look at Rutgers defense reveals they are allowing 4.52 yards per carry on the road. Uconn is better at running the ball and they're better at stopping the run at this point in the season yet they are home under dogs based on recent performance? Oddsmakers got this all wrong.It's do or die for Uconn and Rutgers is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Huskies. This game will come down to a field goal that's why I recommend buying the half point so you get a win instead of the push!

Ohio St +7.5 (4.4* play) Ohio State +250 (1.5* play)
Almost jumped all over Ohio State as the play of the week, but it'll be my 2nd largest play of Saturday instead. First of all Michigan has not faced a defense this good at home all season long maybe since Notre Dame and Ohio State is much better than Notre Dame's defense which really is a one man show. Ohio State always has LB and the personnel to stop what Michigan does best which is run the ball and force Denard Robinson into being a pocket passer so he turns the ball over.

Ohio State is allowing just 3.66 ypc this season, Michigan is averaging 5.31 on the year but 2.86 in losses. If Ohio State can slow that running game down and I believe they will they can cover this spread with ease especially since they too can run the ball averaging 4.47 yards per carry, 4.49 on the road and 4.53 in conference play. Ohio State has dominated this match up with their defense and while Michigan's defense is miles from where they were a year ago I still don't trust them especially since their non conference schedule had Eastern Mich, Western Mich, and San Diego State.

Denard Robinson will be due for a pick or two he's got 15 on the year and Ohio State just does not turn the ball over. That's key for a team catching a TD + spread as we know they'll most likely be + in the TO margin. The only real defenses that Michigan has faced close to Ohio State's talent level has been Michigan State and Iowa and they managed just 30 points total and lost both games. Ohio State faced a similar style Nebraska team and we had them at +10 as our play of the week then. Ohio State held a 27-6 lead in the 3rd quarter before they lost the momentum when Braxton Miller got hurt, but Miller is back and he's playing well. Ohio State got DeVier Posey back at WR in their last game 4 rec 66 yards and that was huge as he can give them a threat in the passing game which should stretch the field. Of the 4 Big Ten losses Ohio State has had none of them have been blowouts losing by 4.7 ppg. Ohio State is 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning home team and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points.

Syracuse +2 (3.3* play)
I like this match up Syracuse comes off a bye week they desperately needed and Cinci comes into this game after losing their heart in the last 2 games. Zach Collaros remains out and now they have this guy Munchie who after watching his game vs. Rutgers can not throw a lick. Guess what Syracuse does not allow teams to run on them - 2.93 yards per carry at home 3.55 overall. This is a team that beat West Virginia at home and Syracuse is more than capable to take advantage of Cinci's weakness in pass defense as Ryan Nassib is completting 63% of his passes for 20 TD and only 6 interceptions. Munchie will have issues all day long as Syracuse dominated up front on the road last year vs. Cinci and I think they do again today as they come out with an outright victory. The dog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings and Syracuse is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 following a bye week.

Arkansas +12.5 (3.3* play)
I have no doubt LSU takes this game, but Arkansas can do something that LSU has not seen very often this year and that

Tulsa +3.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Love Tulsa here you can say arguably they are the better team as their 3 losses were to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Boise state in the beginning of the year. Tulsa actually won at Houston last year , but they

Louisville +3.5 (3.3* play)
Lousville can play for the Big East Championship or a share with a win vs. South Florida and they

3.3* play

TX/TXAM U53.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD); TX +8.5 (3.3* PLAY) I love this match up and I'll break it all down. First of all Texas is the best defense that A&M has seen all year long and it's not even close. Some of A&M's home stats running and passing are skewed because they have not faced a top defense like Texas which is #1 in Big 12 and 10th in the nation in total defense. Let's look at who A&M has played at home that has gotten them to some of their great H/A stats. Baylor (115th total defense), Kansas (120th), Missouri (80th and they lost), Oklahoma St (105th) and Idaho (91st). Texas won't need to get in a shoot out this is a team that's stout at stopping the run right we saw what they did against Kansas State and Missouri in back to back weeks and I feel they'll have some extra motivation seeing as though A&M is leaving for the SEC and they'll look for some revenge after losing at home a year ago. Texas A&M has not been the same when they can't run the ball and Cyrus Gray is banged up with a shoulder injury and their other star is gone for the year. Texas is ranked 33rd against the pass and when they know it's coming I think they can stop it especially against A&M who is going to lose the crowd advantage early when they don't light up the scoreboard. So this in hence turns into an ugly game for me as Texas has struggled on offense since the injuries at RB took over. A&M is allowing just 2.50 yards per carry at home so it will be up to Texas QB's to make the noise and that's a scary proposition that I don't think Mac Brown will explore very often making this a defensive battle. I'm not sold on the young offensive line of A&M that's allowed just 7 sacks. They've faced almost zero pass rush this year with opponents ranking 119th, 88th, 105th, 93rd, 112th and 90th in their wins. Texas gets very good push up front and has gotten better as the season has worn on. More on the under if Texas decides they want to get into a shoot out - A&M is #1 in the nation in sacks. So that's not a very good idea, yet what I find odd is they are 118th in pass defense. Teams drop back so much on them they are tallying up the sacks and also they really haven't had teams try to run on them to the extent that Texas is about to. I think Texas can wear their defense down and take advantage in the second half cruising to possibly an outright victory. The Under is 5-2-1 the last 8 meetings at TX A&M.

Ohio -8.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) I normally love the under dog in these type of match ups, but Miami Ohio just came off a deflating loss to Western Michigan a week ago and they are out of the MAC race and their season is over with 7 losses. No bowl game or magic carpet ride like last season. I think it will be a challenge to get up against an Ohio team that has dominated them going 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings 3 of the last 4 had a spread of a field goal or less and in those games Ohio has won by an average of 17 points. Offensively Miami Ohio can pass the ball but they are dead last in the nation in running ranked 120th in yardage and that

Kansas St +9 (4.4* play) Almost made this my play of the day, as the line just does not make sense. Kansas State though will come in trying to control the clock they are #1 in the nation in time of possession and that's thanks to a running game and their QB Collin Klein who has 24 TD's on the ground and 1009 yards. Texas is usually adequate at stopping any kind of a running game, and I don't doubt that they'll slow Kansas State, but can Texas get anything going on offense with all the injuries their backfield has had in the past week? Last Week we had Missouri over Texas at +1.5 as our big play and they easily won the game and it came at a cost when their backfield was hit hard by injuries including their Sr. leader Whitaker. Bottom line Texas was exposed by a mobile QB last week in James Franklin who only rushed for 33 yards, but was able to pass and move the ball. Kansas State just gets it done they are +9 in turnover margin all of that comes on the road where they have been + in that department in all of their road games. Expect Texas to be forced to throw the ball and as I said last week they are not built to win a game that way not with Ash or McCoy behind center. This should be a fast game lots of running that is played close.

Washington State +3.5 (5* play) Utah started 0-4 in the Pac-12 and now have been on a run and even have a long shot at a BCS bowl game, but Washington STate is playing for their bowl lives after a huge win over a very good ARizona State team. Arizona State went to Utah and won outright. Washington State should be able to win if they can stop John White and to do that they will stack the box. They held ARizona state to just 2.4 ypc and on this is just a bad match up for Utah in my opinion. It's not like their offense is a juggernaut ranked 109th in total offense and converting just 34.35% on 3rd downs this season while Washington State is converting 42.86%. Washington State's defense is allowing just 29.6% conversions in their last 2 games so I think that continues into this key game. Utah has also relied on turnovers way too often this year but they have turned the ball over 19 times themselves. WAshington St has turned the ball over just 6 times in 5 home games so I don't think Utah has enough to cover as favorites on the road against a team fighting for bowl eligibility unless they win the turnover battle which I don't believe they will. Meanwhile I mentioned this being a bad match up for Utah, because Washington State is not a running team. Utah is built to stop the run, but Washington State will simply just try to throw they are ranked 9th and they got a guy who just came in relief in Connor Halliday who threw 27-36 for 496 yards 4 TD and 0 INT vs. a stiff ARizona State team. Utah ranked 75th in pass defense and I think Washington State has the talent to get behind the secondary of Utah in this game. Lastly this game also comes down to red zone and Washington State is converting 76% of their opportunities at home into TD's while their defense is allowing 55% and Utah continues to struggle in the red zone as they do on 3rd downs converting just 48% of their attempts on the season and 37% on the road.

LA Tech +7.5 (3.3* play) La Tech +252 (1*play) LA Tech has had an incredible season so far, but it all means nothing unless they can finally get past Nevada and I think they finally do. They have had 5 wins in a row this is a team that has lost by 2 to Southern Miss ranked 22nd, lost by 1 to Houston ranked 11th, and lost to MIss St by 6 also on the road and they beat SEC team Miss last week. They are competitive in every game and give themselves a chance to win. Nevada has 16 straight wins at home but they are about to face a LA Tech team that can stop the run unlike last year. They are allowing just 2.97 yards per carry in conference play 3.15 overall. The only two teams Southern Miss and Miss St who have rushed over 4 yards and they ran for 4.0 and 4.03. Their defense on the road this year has been unreal and that's the difference they are doing it against quality opponents holding them to 26.80% on 3rd down and in the red zone they are doing it too. Nevada is -1 in turnover margin with 20 turnovers and La Tech hardly ever turns the ball over and is +8 in turnover margin and that's another reason I love LA Tech to win finally get their win agasint Nevada who is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as a favorite. While La Tech is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 vs. a winning team

Oregon State +2 -105 (4.4* Play) Oregon State gets a break as Joe Montana's son Nick will start in place of Keith Price who got injured after a crushing loss to USC and now they go on the road to play Oregon State team that has pride to play for. I don't think that is why they win this game, it will be more about Washington's defense which is ranked 11th on 3rd down allowing 49.26% conversions on the year. Oregon State should finally have a balanced attack in their last 3 games they haven't rushed the ball at all 32, 33, and 27 yards in each game, but they faced CAl Stanford, and Utah the 3 best run defenses in the Pac 12 who are ranked 31st, 8th and 11th in the nation, Washington is more like Washington State allowing 4.8 ypc on the year and over 6 in their road games. If Oregon State can find balance like they did vs. Washington State they should have a field day on offense and expect James Rodgers to get into it in this game in a big way. Washington is not only bad vs. the run but they are ranked 104th in pass defense and Oregon State and Sean Manion are 21st in passing offense. Washington allowing opposing QB's a 63.5% completion rate and a 147 QB rating. The last time SEan Manion faced a bad pass defense was Wash St and ARizona and they won both of those games. This will be a Sr. moment with 17 Sr's on SR day expect both the offense and defense to be pumped up. Washington has allowed 13 sacks in the last 2 games expect Oregon State to get after the young Montana.

Rutgers +3 (5.5* NCAAF POD) This is Rutgers game to lose as the the Bearcats come off an emotional loss because not only did they lose to West Virginia their rival, but they lost their QB Zach Collaros to a broken ankle. Look for Rutgers to have a lot of revenge for the beat down's they got from Cinci the last few years. Now that Collaros is not there as he threw for 366 yards a year ago. Rutgers defense is the real deal any how and a much improved unit from a year ago. They should be able to come up and stop Isiah Peed. Cinci is great at stopping the run and are ranked #2 in the nation and leads the nation in tackles for loss, but Rutgers doesn't run the ball anyway they've been passing it behind Chas Dodd who had 4 TD and 300+ yards a year ago vs. Cinci and he goes up against their 115th ranked pass defense. Rutgers has the receivers to give them all kinds of issues again including Mohamed Sanu and Mark Harrisson. Harrisson had 240 yards receiving a year ago in the loss. Rutgers defense should put up a better game they are #1 in the Big East in takeaways now facing an inexperienced QB in Munchie Legaux. Rutgers averages 4.5 sacks per home game and although Munchie looked good in relief he faces a much more challenging test knowing he's the starter. Cinci with Collaros were only converting 36.84% on third down on the road and Rutgers defense allowing just 31.8% conversions at home. Again both teams can stop the run this comes down to who can pass better and at home Rutgers has proven they can get to the QB and the newbie Munchie won't have success as Rutgers is holding opponents to 52.5% completions and 9 interceptions at home 53.7% and 16 overall while the Bearcats have allowed 65.2% to opposing QB's. The dog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and Cinci is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 in November.

Purdue +3 -120 (3.3* play) Iowas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games as a favorite while Purdue is 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 games in november. Iowa has looked awful on the road vs. Minny, Penn State and Iowa St and are 0-3 on the road. PUrdue just beat two solid Big Ten teams at home in Illinois and Penn State and they've gotten done running the ball, as they average 4.47 ypc at home this season. They controlled the clock and ran the ball 42 times vs. both Ill and Penn State. The big key though has come on 3rd down as they have converted 45% of their third downs at home and have only allowed 35% conversions on defense. Iowa defense has allowed 47% on 3rd downs on the road which will set Purdue up for another successful day. In the early going it will be Marcus Cooker form Iowa vs. Ralph Bolden from Purdue. Purdue held both Illinois and Penn State to under 4 yards per carry and I see no reason why they can't do it again. Purdue is also 32nd in ppass defense if James VandenBerg tries to throw the ball they could run into a stiff test. On the other side the QB committee has worked well with Terbush and Robert Marve.

Iowa State +28 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Iowa +2250 (1* play) First off I feel Iowa State matches up really well with Oklahoma St in the fact that they can run the ball and they can defend the pass those are the two things they do best on offense and defense and we will get into it in more detail, but Iowa State has an extra 7 days and they are fighting for bowl eligibility right now and Oklahoma State as 4 TD favorites have to be looking past this game to Oklahoma. Oklahoma was 28 point favorites to Texas Tech and lost so why can't Iowa State take down Oklahoma State? Oklahoma State is ranked 101st in yards allowed this year. It's all about QB play of Jared Barnett who is averaging 5.24 yards per carry. Oklahoma State had all kinds of issues with the trio of dual threat QB's they've faced this year in Kansas Sate Collin Klein, James Franklin, Missouri and Robert Griffin of Baylor. Another key to Oklahoma's season has been forcing turnovers and they have forced a lot. Iowa State has the tendency to be careless but over their last 3 games they have gotten much better and I think the extra prep has only helped them prepare for this. Also Iowa State's defense which has allowed just 12 passing TD's all season has held their last 3 opponents to 27.9% conversions on 3rd downs. Overall 36% at home and their Red Zone defense goes right along with that as they have allowed just 8 TD on red zone appearances at home this year in 21 attempts for just 38%. IF Oklahoma State gets stopped and they aren't overly impressive in the red zone just 60% touchdowns on the road and 64% in conference play then I think Iowa State will easily cover this spread. This spread is all about the hype of Oklahoma State can they handle the pressure when they are the hunted?

UNC +10.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) 3 of the last 4 match ups in this rivalry have been decided by a TD or less. Last year UNC fell victim of turnovers by their offense as TY Yates threw 4 interceptions. Virginia Tech to me is not the same and they are really banged up on defense and UNC has a balanced offense that Virginia Tech has not faced yet. Bryn Renner is completing 71.4 % of his passes this year which is unreal and 19 TD 11 INT on the season and he has weapons to throw to including 6-4 SR Dwight Jones who has 63 receptions and 8 TD's. UNC also features a talented freshmen running the ball in 5.44 ypc this year 3rd in the ACC in total yards. On the other side we know what Virginia Tech is going to do, run the ball and UNC has the talent to stop it as they have the better defensive line in this one. They held Clemson to 2.14 and Miami to 1.63 yards two solid running teams. I think Virginia Tech may be looking ahead here too as they win here and win against rival Virginia next week and they'll get a rematch against Clemson which they desperately want after losing 23-3. UNC scored 38 points on Clemson so that should tell you all you need to know about UNC's capabilities here. Now there are distractions, but the extra 5 days to prepare and the revenge after last year's loss to a much more talented Virginia Tech team which they led at half time 10-9. People forget Virginia Tech almost lost to Duke 14-10. Logan Thomas was impressive last week but now we'll see what he can do against a team that is much more talented in the front 7 than Georgia Tech who looked to have been in control in that game until the personal foul on defense for Georgia Tech. UNC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as a dog 10.5+ and Vtech is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 as a favorite while the road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Memphis +11.5 (3.3* play) Marshall as double digit favorites? Really I know Memphis has been awful, but both teams come off emotional losses a week ago and memphis would love to play spoiler here. Marshall has some issues on offense and will defer back to the true freshmen Cato who threw 10 TD and 8 INT, and just 55.9% completions. I don't think he can truly take advantage of Memphis most obvious weakness which is the pass defense. I think Marshall will have issues because their offensive line is banged up they've never been able to really run the ball and their defense has shown some holes the last month. Memphis D-line has some talent including Dontae Poe who will play in the NFL one day. I look for Memphis to come up with a big effort to have a chance to win it in the end as they continue to be good at not turning the ball over and forcing turnovers as they are 21st in the nation in TO margin while Marshall is -3 on the road this year.

Western Mich +1.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Miami Ohio is now facing a completely different style offense than they did a week ago vs. Temple who loves to pound the rock. This week they face a high flight offense that is just plain and simply clicking. Alex Carder to Jordan White is a dynamic duo going back to last year. They are only dogs because of their 1-5 road record, but honestly their 5 losses are all to quality bowl teams in Uconn, Michigan, Illinois, and the MAC's two best, Northern Illinois, Toledo and a very improved Eastern Michigan team. Miami Ohio is last in the league in running the ball and that's Western Mich's weakness that we won't ever see. They are just averaging 2.38 ypc and Western Michigan's defense has an extra day to prepare to put their secondary in the right position. I think the swagger of this defense comes back against a one dimensional offense in Miami Ohio as they look to win out to get into a bowl game. Zac Dysert is very turnover prone and his offensive line afforded him little protection as he was sacked 7 times vs. Temple. Western Mich is also just better on 3rd down as they are converting 48.28% on third down in conference play and their defense is allowing 40%. While Miami Ohio converting just 37% and allowing 39.73% at home. Vs. two Passing teams the only passing teams on the schedule in Toledo and Cinci they gave up 44% and 50% 3rd down conversions. This will be a key tonight in what should be another entertaining MAC match up.

NILL -17 -120 buy 1/2 Buy the half here, but I don't think you'll need it as Northern Illinois comes in red hot right now off 45 and 63 point performances and they face a defense ranked 118th in total defense. This is the same defense that gave up 42 points to Temple which has just one way to beat you. Northern Illinois can beat them through the air and on the ground and on special teams. Chandler Harnish is just competing at a different level right now and he should have his way at home against this team. Especially if Temple's Chester Stewart can throw 10-13 for 160 yards on the road vs. Ball State. I liked what I saw from Northern Illinois defense last week and they can get sacks at home 14 in just 4 home games and I expect that to be a big reason why they cover this large spread. Add in that they have held opponents to 31% 3rd down conversions in conference games and 40% overall while they are 64.8% at home in converting 3rd downs and there is a real reason to believe this spread is too low. How can Ball State even get off the field as they are allowing conference opponents to convert on 59.55% of their 3rd downs and they have allowed a 172 QB rating in conference play and now they face one of the conference best QB's. They can't stop the pass and they can't stop the run and they aren't even 100% healthy as they've held 6 different starters out of practice recently. Expect Northern Illinois to score into the 40's for sure and probably the 50's as their defense continues to improve on last week's performance when they held a better offensive Bowling Green to 90 yards and 9 points in the 2nd half.

Oregon +3.5 (4.4* play) This is the big one Stanford vs. Oregon and again I

LA Tech -2 3.3* play This line looks a little crazy doesn

Colorado +11 (5* play); Colorado +345 (2* play) Colorado desperately wants a conference win to prove they belong. At home they haven

Texas Tech +17.5 (3.3* play) Oklahoma State is nearly unstoppable on offense and are now ranked 2nd in the nation, but their defense can not stop anyone so I begin to wonder if they really can win out and play LSU in the national championship (assuming LSU doesn

Purdue +7.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Purdue is just a different team at home as they are 4-1. Ohio State is also a completely different team on the road. Both teams want to run the ball and that

Missouri +1.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) They must be the best 4-5 team in the league. Missouri is great after allowing 40+ points per game in previous game coming back to go 21-5 ATS. This is a team that could easily be 6-3 and then we

Syracuse +4 4.4* NCAAF POD
Syracuse is a different team at the Carrier Dome and South Florida has been awful on the road this year especially in Big East play unable to get a single win. Syracuse is 4-1 at home and they beat West Virginia 49-23 in their last home game here. They went on to lose at Louisville in a let down game after a huge win and then lost at Uconn last week after turning the ball over 5 times. But back at home turnovers have not been an issue as they are forcing 3 per game at home. They

Georgia Tech +1 (5.5* NCAAF POD)
Love it, both teams have extra preparation and that means more to Georgia Tech who will get healthy on their offensive line and at linebacker. Both teams will try to establish the run and I believe Georgia Tech will be plenty successful as they ran for over 300 yards vs. a good Clemson team and last year vs. Virginia Tech they ran for 346 yards and are even better this year and Virginia Tech is not as good as last year and seem to be panicking moving players around on defense as many as 5 position changes. That

MIA OH +13 (4.4* NCAAF POD)+420 1* BONUS
If Miami OH can get passed this game I am confident they can lock up the MAC East. They only trail Ohio and the returning MAC Champions have pretty much everyone they had a year ago so there is no doubt they can win this game and 13 points is a lot in a game that is critical to both teams. For one Miami Ohio is a little banged up and playing their 3rd game in 11 days, However, Temple is banged up to I doubt their star RB Bernard Pierce will start and last year without them this same Miami Ohio defense held Temple to 2.5 yards per carry and 215 total yards. The defense has picked it up the last few games allowing 0 TD

Bowling Green +6
I think we are reacting too strongly to Northern Illinois 63 points a week ago to Toledo. Bowling Green matches up much better despite their 91st run defense because their pass defense is pretty good and they are even better at home allowing 52.4% completion rate and 1 TD with 5.4 yards per attempt. Chandler Harnish might have a more challenging game especially since Bowling Green has an extra few days to prepare for what is a huge game for them. Their bowl stakes are on the line and so is the MAC East the two teams ahead of them they have beat and they have Ohio next week. This is the same defense that beat temple 13-10 at home and was within 7 points to Toledo. Bowling Green

LSU +5 (4.4* Prime Time Play) This is the game we have all been waiting for. In my opinion these teams are mirror images of each other. LSU has had the tougher schedule so the defensive stats, rushing stats, and 3rd down stats are slightly better on Alabama's side. That along with them being home is the reason why they are favorites, but I do not believe they have the better team. I thought this would be a -3.5 type game and because these teams are so even and both have great defenses and pro style offenses that lead to low scoring games I'm taking the under dog. LSU just has the better game in my opinion they have the advantage in the passing game with two experienced QB';s that have different strengths while Alabama has a QB with just 9 starts that has not seen a pass defense like this at all on the year. The two teams that have a defense remotely close to LSU has been Penn State and Florida and in both those games he was not nearly as good. Vs. Florida he was 12-25 for just 140 yards while LSU was a combined 10-14 215 yards 2 TD. LSU has the ability for big plays and I'm not sold on Alabama's secondary. I look for Ruben Randle to make another big play as he did last year in this match up with a 75 yard TD catch. I mentioned turnovers. Both teams do not turn it over much, but Alabama has forced just 14 turnovers, and they have given it up 8 times for a +6 margin while LSU has just been on a different level with 18 forced and 3 lost for a +15 margin. This team just makes plays to score points other than their offense and in a big defensive game like this one that will be the key. LSU additionally has the edge on the season in time of possession, and when we talk about stopping the run Alabama has been dominant this year allowing 1.67 yards per carry, but hold on who have they faced with a running game. We saw some plays early in the Florida game but then Florida lost their starting QB and Florida became one dimensional. Outside that they faced Penn State which we really can't say much about other than they would not compete in the SEC. Penn State is over rated but they had 107 yards rushing vs. Alabama in what was a competitive game early. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15. I'll be rooting for LSU the entire way, but won't be surprised to see Alabama pull it out by a field goal.. Both teams are pro style teams with run first mentalities and have good kicking games. There is a lot on the game so expect it to be played very closely.

Rutgers +3 -120 (4* play) Rutgers held an advantage at half time vs. the Big East's best team in WEst Virginia 31-21 before they did not score a point in the 2nd half and finished the game -3 in turnovers. That's something they don't do often as they have 26 forced turnovers on the year and USF will give away their share of turnovers. Rutgers defense is just as good as Pitt and Uconn and USF came Northeast and could not do much vs. those two teams. Rutgers is aggressive they get sacks and they force turnovers. This is the exact match up USF did not want following their bye, they had a similar match up last year following extra preparation and were home as 10.5 point favorites to Rutgers. They did win, but by 1 point. Now they are on the road where they just can't win. The early season schedule has led to them being over hyped while Rutgers faced some challenges early for the first time in a few years that are continuing to pay off. Look for Rutgers to bounce back here they have home field, the more aggressive and better defense, and quietly have better weapons. I think USF plays man to man and comes up to blitz and that will be a mistake with WR Harrisson catching deep balls, and Mohammed Sanu another electrifying WR. USF can't stay on the field converting just 27.5% of 3rd downs ont he road, and Rutgers is holding opponents to 28% at home 25% in conference play. USF additionally can't get out of it's own way with 7.7 penalties per game. USF is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a road favorite and if you ask me shouldn't be road favorites if they have 2 weeks off especially vs. a capable team like Rutgers.

FLINT -2.5 -120 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Western Kentucky has been on fire, and I've been waiting for an opportunity to fade them. The opportunity is when they face a balanced offense, and today they not only will face a balanced offense, but a balanced defense one that's ranked 30th in the nation in stopping the run which is the strength of Western Kentucky with RB Bobby Rainey among one of the best RB's in the country. Florida International has held Rainey under 100 yards in the last two years. Western Kentucky does not have the defense to stop Florida International's balanced attack. For one UL Monroe scored 28 pts on them just last week racking up 456 yards in a 31-28 loss to Western Kentucky. They also allowed 480 yards to MIddle Tennessee which was the last balanced offense they faced. Still MTSU has zero defense ranked 105th in the nation so a 36-33 win for Western Kentucky was no surprise, but Florida International has the 39th ranked total defense. They allow just 3.51 yards per carry, 3.67 on the road and as I mentioned they've had success containing Rainey before and when you don't have to worry about the passing game from Western Kentucky you can get real agressive vs. the run. On the flip side Western Kentucky allows 5.50 yards per carry at home on defense and FIU can run the ball as well as pass. Actually they have the best player on their side of the ball with TY Hilton who will be used in the running and receiving game. He'll have Wesley Carrol throwing to him who has 1740 yards, 9 TD 3 interceptions and 62% completion rate. I like Carrol vs. the 102nd ranked pass defense. Western Kentucky wins when they get sacks 12 in their 4 wins, but FLINT has allowed only 11 sacks all year. Wky is also -6 in turnover margin at home and as we mentioned Florida just does not turn the ball over and I don't think that will change. The last few advantages are extra preparation as Florida has 4 extra days to prepare for this game that's a key conference game. With no look ahead game on the horizon you bet they were concentrated on Western Kentucky and stopping the run and their leading receiver TE Jack Doyle who was shut down vs. ULMON which has one of the nation's worst defenses. To make matters worst Western Kentucky can't make field goal's they are just 3-12 this season. Look for Florida International to make some statements in the red zone and hold the momentum throughout the game

Northwestern +700 (1* play) This is a huge value play as in my mind Northwestern has been way too competitive in their games vs the top Big Ten teams. They were picked to be right in the mix, but their defense has been awful. I think they have some confidence after a huge win last week, and the offense will be clicking at Nebraska especially after Nebraska just pulled out a huge win vs. Michigan State. Look for a let down I love how Northwestern matches up as their weakness is stopping the pass and Nebraska can't move the ball that way. We should be in great shape if Northwestern can get a lead early as they have had no problem doing that vs. Penn State, Iowa, and Michigan. They were up vs. Michigan 24-14 at the half and to me they mirror a Nebraska team.

Mississippi -1.5 (3.3* play) Like Ole Miss here this game really comes down to the running game and the running defense and Ole Miss is just a little bit better. For one thing Kentucky may have 3 running backs out in this game and Ole Miss had one of the better offensive lines coming into the year. Overall Kentucky just 2.98 yards on the ground in conference play and they are allowing 5.85 yards per carry. Miss finally has a healthy RB in Brandon Bolden and he's averaging 5.74 yards per carry and Jeff Scott behind him is averaging 4.63 yards per carry. Look for Miss to pound the ball in this one as Kentucky is 99th in run defense and 118th in total offense event hough they are at home I like Miss here as it should be a cake walk for them in terms of stopping the run as they have faced some of the best running teams of late. Also Morgan Newton at QB for Kentucky is a nightmare he's only completing 48% of his passes and their are rumors a true freshmen will get a lot of action this week. Kentucky is 31% on 3rd downs for the year and have turned the ball over 19 times this year. Miss has played a lot better at times but have fallen a part in the third quarter and i think this is the first game there is no way that happens with Kentucky's offense going nowhere. Houston Nutt is 8-4 in November with Ole Miss and he's played a lot of young talent early which will pay huge dividends down the stretch. One guy to keep an eye on is Nick Brassell he plays on both sides. Also take a look at the huge advantage Miss will have in the punting game as they are #1 in the nation with 27.5 yards per return for 2 TD's, while Kentucky is averaging 1.7 yards per return.

Iowa +4 -105 (3.5* NCAAF EB) I look for Iowa to return home where they are 5-0 and come up with a big win vs. a Michigan team that continues to over achieve in my opinion. They lost to a very bad Minnesota team but returning home should be the difference and I believe the defense will have a chip on their shoulder being under dogs. Iowa is 15-5-1 ATS following an ATS loss, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a home dog, while people continue to over rate a Michigan team that on paper has a very good defense, but watching the games I just have mixed opinion on them. They are 16-33 ATS in their last 49 as a favorite 3.5-10 points and do not deserve to be road favorites against a consistently good program like Iowa. Iowa did beat Northwestern and Pitt at home so their 5-0 record is not all to bad teams, and they have a running game and a passing game. Marcus Coker in his last 3 games alone has 515 yards and 6 TD, Jeff Vandenberg also has 17 TD's just 4 interceptions while completing 62.2% of his passes for 1918 yards. Michigan's defense that everyone is excited about has only faced 2 balanced offenses in Notre Dame and Michigan State and Iowa's is a bit better than Mich State and a little worst than Notre Dame, and those were the two games Michigan's defense struggled. This is just Michigan's 3rd road game. Iowa should have the advantage in mental mistakes as Michigan has 12 interceptions to Iowa's 4 and Iowa is one of the nation's least penalized teams with just 4.4 per game.

Kent State -1 4.4* NCAAF POD
So we are backing Kent for the second week in a row. I thought their offense made major strides a week ago after a bye week where HC Darrell Hazell was able to shift the offensive line around.

UCF -1 5* NCAAF POD

I love the Knights here at home on Thursday night in what Sr. leadership is calling their

Ohio +4 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Ohio + Love Ohio here first of all Temple struggles on defense when they can not pin their ears back and go after either a one dimensional running or one dimensional passing attack. At this point Ohio can do both on offense and are just as bit as good on defense as Temple is. Ohio is a balanced offense they can pass with Tettleton and run as always. Temple has faced one team like that and it was Toledo who put up 36 points on them. Ohio has a much deeper more talented defense than Toledo and they are also home with their new black out jerseys on national television. Bernard Pierce is the best player on the field, and Temple has him, but he has not been practicing the last two weeks. Temple had a hard time containing WR Paige from Toledo and should have an even tougher challenge with Lavonn Brazil who will be playing in the NFL next year.

Northern Illinois +9 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Toledo certainly wants revenge from last year's 65-30 laugher vs. Northern Illinois, but I'm not so sure they'll get it. Northern Illinois is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 conference games and 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 on turf and they rushed for over 400 yards vs. Toledo last year. Toledo has played well against the run, but partially because they have not faced a dual threat QB or a team that can do both pass and run. Their 4 conference opponents have either been good at one of the other and all 4 struggle to score points. Facing Northern Illinois at home will be a different game as Northern Illinois can throw with Chandler Harnish and they are one of the best teams in the country in running the ball ranked 11th. Unlike Temple who can not throw a lick, Harnish has two 300 yards passing days and Toledo can give up a bunch as they have allowed 295 yards passing per game at home and a 151 QB rating. Harnish does not turn the ball over and is completing 63% of his passes and 50.88% of third downs. When I look at this game I wonder if Toledo can get into third and manageable plays because they just are not as good on 3rd down as Northern Illinois and don't have as much balance. Also on defense Toledo has forced 19 turnovers that's been this teams strength, but they have not been as good as Northern Illinois in creating negative plays. Look for Northern Illinois to force more 3rd and longs.

Arizona +4.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) Love Arizona like I did a week ago vs. UCLA. They have an extra day to prepare for Washington team that to me has been outkicking their coverage and over achieving. They were embarased at Stamford and really lack the defense to stop Nick Foles and an improving running game that rushed for well over 200 yards vs. UCLA. Washington gave up some big time yardage on the ground in the last two games which will make Arizona's QB Nick Foles even more dangerous with Criner and Buckner on the outside vs. WAshington's 110th pass defense. Arizona was +182 yards in the match up last year and averaged 6.3 yards per carry while holding Washington to 3ypc. I don't expect Washington to be concentrating on revenge this is a sandwhich game they though they could win. They had Stanford, then this home game and then they welcome Oregon. The tables have been turning Arizona's defense continues to get better allowing just 3.28 yards per carry last 3 games Washington has allowed 5.59 ypc last 3 games. The firing of Stoops opened the eyes of this team and the change of Tim Kish as the head coach was a good move and the defense has changed to a more aggressive style and we saw it last game. With Utah, Colorado ULLAF, and a rivalry Arizona State game players are definitely believing they can go to a bowl game despite their miserable start and it carries over here. Dog is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14. Arizona is the best team Washington has faced all year at home and they have allowed 56% conversions on 3rd down to those other teams. Arizona and Nick Foles should move the ball with ease.

UTEP +10 (3.3* play) UTEP +320 (1* bonus) Southern Miss just came off a huge win and is now ranked in the top 25. Hold on a second though UTEP is better than their record indicates and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs a team with a winning record. They nearly took down Houston 42-49 so we can take them seriously. Now they've gotten it done with the running game averaging 292 rushing yards over their last 3 games and have just 30 attempts passing in the last 2. That means a slower game keeping Smiss off the field and giving them a cover ATS and a chance to win out right because... Smiss is giving up rushing yards 4.91 yards per carry, and 225/game on the road this year. When they do punt they feature the nation's best punter in Ian Campbell who averages 48 yds per kick giving them an unknown weapon against Smiss. UTEP's defense is also better at home allowing opponents just 28% conversions on 3rd downs and should be able to get off the field from time to time. This defense also only has allowed 2 TD's in the red zone in 11 attempts by opponents.

[b]USC +8 4.4* play[/b]
This is like usc's bowl game and they would love to knock off Stanford I believe they have a chance as standards defense is vulnerable in pass defense and matt Barkley is just as good as Andrew luck so far this season and he's faced a much more challenging schedule. We saw USC give Stanford fits last year and I still think that stanford team was better than this years team and I believe USC is still under rated and have the better athletes in this one.

Boston College +8 (4* play) BC owes Maryland some payback for a 24-21 heartbreaker a year ago. I just do not see Maryland who can't even name a starting QB pull off a win by more than a TD. Boston College continues to improve and we saw a glimpse of the old defense last week as they held Virginia Tech to 6 points in the first half. More importantly is the advantage BC has up front on offense with the big offensive line and an improving running game since losing RB Montel Davis. Rolandan Finch has had back to back quality games. 18 carries 92 yards vs. Virginia Tech's 7th ranked run defense, 19 for 81 vs. Clemson. Now vs. an undersized front 7 of Maryland that's allowing 5.20 yards per carry this year I"m confident BC can stay in this game especially since they are only converting 37% of their RZ attempts into Touchdowns and BC is holding opponents to 41% TD in red zone. Luke Kuechly is everywhere for BC averaging 17 tackles per game. BC is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points while Maryland is 9-19 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite.

Kent State +155 (1* bonus) Kent State has had more than a week of extra preparation for this game and Bowling Green is off a huge win at home 13-10 vs. Temple. I expect a similar score in this game on Saturday as Kent State just has one of the best defenses in the conference as they are ranked 22nd in total defense in the country their problem has been with the offense, but the extra week off should help. For one they are moving the offensive line around to get some more push up front which can't hurt and they will have more success as Bowling Green has allowed 5.06 yards per carry this year and 6.37 in losses. Kent's poor rushing and offensive statistics are partially due to their strength of schedule as they had to open up the year vs. Alabama and Kansas State so I don't think they are as bad as their 120th rank. However, the key is on defense for Kent State. Bowling Green is -8 in turnover margin giving up 18 on the year while Kent State has forced 18 9 in 3 home games. kent State at home also only allowing opponents to convert 26% of their 3rd downs while Bowling Green is converting just 28% in their last 4 games anyway. So expect Kent State to me motivated here off the bye to come out with the outright win. The Dog is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 match ups.

Mich State +4 (5.5* NCAAF POD) I love Mich State even after their big win last week. Mainly because Nebraska to me is not ready for Big Ten competition. For one Mich State beat Wisconsin and Nebraska was dominated by them and they also beat Ohio State who had Nebraska beat until Braxton Miller got hurt and they lost momentum in the 3rd quarter. Mich State forced a better QB that loves to run in Denard Robinson as Mich State won 28-14 in that game holding Denard to 9-24 passing and 18 rushes for just 42 yards. Michigan State is allowing just 2.91 yards per carry in conference play. Mich State has been dominant on 3rd down converstions allowed holding opponents to 27.5% in conference play. That will be a huge advantage Saturday when Mich State stops the running game early forcing Taylor Martinez to be a thrower which we are all well aware that's never a good thing and a reason why they can't win this game despite Mich State coming off a huge win. Nebraska is no Nebraska on defense they allow 4.66 yards per carry and they have just 9 sacks, just 1 per game in conference games. While Michigan State can stop the run and they have 19 sacks in 3 conference games. Kirk Cousins is a veteran and should have all day to throw and the running game continues to get better by the day. nebraska is just 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 as a home favorite and 8-17 ATS in their last 25 after scoring 40 points in previous game as they played Minnesota last week the Big Ten's worst team. Lastly Nebraska is allowing 80% of conference opponents red zone attempts to be touchdowns and Michigan State is scoring 90% of their red zone attempts in conference play as TD's. Michigan State has also allowed half as many red zone attempts as Nebraska's defense on the year so again I'm going with the defensive team that continues to get better at their weaknesses meanwhile Nebraska continues to show they can not have a balanced offensive attack.

BYU +14 -120 BUY

Miami -13.5 (4* NCAAF POD)
Yep I

Uconn + 10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

Sure I

Troy +7.5 buy 1/2 -120 4.5* NCAAF POD
Troy is on revenge here returning 16 starters that remember their loss quite well to FIU at the end of last year 52-35. Part of that problem was stopping the run and turning the ball over as they were -3 in turnover margin in that game. I don

SMU +3.5 -120 (3.5* PLAY) Smiss had a huge win over Navy and then they went on a bye. Not a good thing last year they had a huge win and then gave up 50 points to UAB at home. SMU is clearly more of a threat than UAB and JJ McDermott is 5-0 since taking over at starter and he's led an explosive offense that has looked good against TCU and UCF two respected defenses. SMU also ranks 24th in total defense and this is the difference maker I believe. They average 3 sacks a game which is first in the conference. They can stop the run which is what SMISS relies on with 6.04 ypc at home and SMU is allowing opponents just 2.90 ypc. They are also forcing field goals with only 50% of their opponents red zone trips turning into TD's. Smiss defense has rebounded from early struggles, but they have not faced a balanced attack since maybe LA Tech which they only won by two at home. SMU just got back another weapon in Sr. WR Cole Beasley last year and he had 10 receptions for 134 yards vs. UCF. He balanced the offense even more that's led by C-USA's leading rusher Zach Line who is just a beast. I think SMU is clicking at the right time and Smiss going on a bye was at the wrong time.

Northwestern +4.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Yes I'm backing Northwestern again. At 2-4 and with some easy games on the docket this team still has a chance to go bowling and have a positive season. This match up could not come at the right time as Penn State's passing game is among the worst in the country. Their QB's are completing 50.9% of their passes and are just not accurate. Northwestern has really struggled to get off the field the last 3 weeks allowing opponents to convert 60% of their 3rd downs, but those opponents were very good on 3rd downs two of the 3 were over 50% on the season and now they get a break with Penn State who is 39% for the season. On the other side of things Northwestern has too much offense for Penn State to win by more than a field goal. Dan Persa is the nation's most accurate passer the same was true last year and since his return this team is converting 54% of his passes. This is the same team that had Michigan and Illinois on the ropes in the 3rd quarter. Penn State barely won at Indiana and Indiana has been god awful and they've been worse on defense ranked 105th in total defense yet Penn State still only scored 16 points. The Penn State offense also lack a go to WR after losing top target Derek Moye again this is a great break for Northwestern that needs a win in the worst way. Home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings and Penn State is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games while Northwestern is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 as a dog 3.5 to 10 points. The secret weapon that many don't know about and it's going to come through in this match up in a huge way is Kain Colter. He's a real weapon started the year at QB he can play WR and wild cat. He's a huge threat in the running game and he'll get touches at QB once again. Okay so many may think Penn State can just run all over Northwestern and keep Persa off the field, well that's not true their defense is holding opponents to 3.59 ypc over the last 3 games against some pretty good rushing offenses in Illinois and Michigan in particular. Penn State's ranked 7th in pass defense but, They have not faced a QB all season long. Please name one? Persa is arguably one of the best QB's in the league and the 7th ranked Penn State pass defense will be exposed. Don't forget Northwestern had a 21-0 lead before Penn State got a TD with 3 seconds left last year at home and that changed momentum of hte game as Penn State won 35-21 outscoring Northwestern 28-0 in the 2nd half. Don't think Northwestern doesn't remember that, and Colter is a big enough of a threat to keep Penn State from stopping Northwestern on 3rd down.

Houston -22.5 (3.3* play) Love Houston here even with all the points and their defense is starting to play extremely well. When backing a team like this you want to make sure their defense can get off the field on 3rd down to get the potent offense back on. Marshall is one of the worst in the country converting just 30% on 3rd downs and Houston 37% on defense so 1/3 of the time they are going to get off the field that's bad news for Marshall that is anemic on offense facing the #1 offense on Saturday. Marshall hasn't been horrible and they arguably have the best defensive talent in the country in Vin Curry already 9.5 sacks, but Keenum does not get sacked just 7 times this year. Houston has 17 sacks themselves which should be a huge advantage for them on that side of the ball when they face inexperienced QB's as Marshall is not sure who will start or play the most. Houston has had an extra week of preparation and Marshall is not scaring anyone with their passing game averaging 176 yards through the air going up against Houston you have to be able to move the ball through the air and they can't. Houston has the balanced offense and should put 40 or 50 points up on Marshall that just lacks the defense to stay at it for a full 4 quarters. They feature a 3 headed RB attack that can rip yards of with Beal, Hayes, and Simms. Marshall won't be able to keep Houston from moving the chains they are converting 56% of their 3rd downs this year.

La Tech +205 (2* bonus) La Tech nearly won at Miss St as 19.5 point under dogs and were +19 in total yards and they nearly beat a very good Houston team 34-35 this team has a lot of talent and speed, probably the most speed in the WAC next is Fresno State a team that Utah State just got done struggling big time against and this LA Tech team is better. In last year's match up LA Tech was +233 yards and had 6.1 yards per carry in that game, and I don't see much changing. LA Tech is off a bye and Lennon Creer is going to be carrying the ball like he did last year 18 carries 120 yards. But more than the speed on offense and the talent at RB I like La Tech's ability on defense much much more. First of all they have faced some talented teams and they are holding opponents to 29.13 % on 3rd downs this year. This stat is real and they'll get off the field plenty of times on Saturday afternoon vs. Utah State which is a run first team as they are ranked 101st passing the ball and that goes right to LA Tech's strength of stopping hte run as they are ranked 24th. IN October they have held opponents to just 2.67 yards per carry and 3.2 for the season. Utah State has had huge issues sustaining drives mainly because of the running game and I think that will give LA Tech the advantage they need here.

Emich +12 (4* play); Emich +380 1* play Very quietly Eastern Mich is putting together a solid season and they lost 45-30 last year at Western Mich so they weren't that far away then especially considering they have the 15th ranked running game and Western Mich has allowed 5.96 yards per carry, 6.85 on the road and 7.30 in the 2nd half of games this year meaning Eastern Mich gets up in this game they can stay on top. A week ago Tavonti Greene and Dominique White had 257 yards rushing against Central Mich which has a much better run defense allowing 4.35 yards per carry. Last year Eastern Mich had 4.9 ypc vs. Wmich and held onto the ball for nearly 40 minutes despite losing due to their 3 turnovers. They have just 4 turnovers in their 3 home games this year. Eastern Mich defense is also better than a year ago they already have 3 more sacks then they did a year ago and I expect them to really play aggressive and go after the talented passing game of Western Mich. Don't sleep on this secondary they were #1 in pass defense in 2009 in the nation, yes you heard that right, but htey did drop to 119th in pass efficiency defense in 2010. They are experienced and have the ability especially at home to get to the QB and force some mistakes as Western Mich has turned the ball over 15 times this year. This is a trophy game for Eastern Mich as their head coach called it so expect a lot of energy. They had 4 starters return on the OL and they are loaded with depth, they were 2nd in the MAC last year in rushing so their is no secret that Eastern Mich competing was a long time coming and this would be a big statement inside the MAC!

Purdue +4 (3.3* play); Purdue lost 44-10 last year and this is major revenge and I don't think Illinois has emotionally rebounded from their loss last week. Illinois also may have the worst special teams in the nation as they are 112th in punt returns, 107th in punting and 119th in kick returns. Last year Illinois looked like an improved team that was rolling then they had an emotional loss to Michigan and followed that up with a terrible loss to Minnesota and I think history repeats itself. Purdue has been rolling with their running game that has averaged over 5 yards per carry. Despite Illinois allowing 2.70 ypc, Purdue has proven they can run the ball behind Bolden/Shavers. Penn State was only allowing 3 yards per carry and they are more tested than Illinois front line having played Alabama and Temple so I was impressed with what the duo backs. Add in Illinois turnover issues of late 6 in their last 3 games and they are coming back to reality and they are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 as a favorite 3.5-10 points they are a better team flying under radar.

Rutgers +2 (4.4* NCAAF POD); Rutgers +8 U46 2.2* teaser
Love Rutgers tonight. Louisville has a very similar team in that their offense is not very good and their defense is very good, but Rutgers just has more weapons on offense and is building and improving each week. Their defense is also been great leading the nation in takeaways and 2nd in sacks two things that will hurt Louisville tonight as Rutgers avenges last year

Arizona -4 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
The coaching change of Mike Stoops could not have came at a better time.

Ark State -3 @ -108 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
This game comes down to Ryan Alpin in the loss against Florida International last year he threw for just 126 yards, but now it

Nwestern +6 (4.4* play) Nwest +212 (1* bonus) Dan Persa is back the only reason they did not beat Illinois is he got banged up but we won that game ATS but lost our MOney line bonus at 3 to 1 in that game. Persa threw for 336 yards a week ago vs. Michigan and it was the defense that could not stop Michigan's dual threat QB. Well this week they don't have to face a dual threat QB which is a relief for the defense they have had 3 games in a row having to stop backfields that just operate differently than most teams. Illinois is not easy to stop and Army has the triple option that they were not used to seeing. Now this becomes a very big game for Northwestern and Persa is not about to let his Sr. year slip away. He's had Iowa's number in the past and Iowa does not have an offense and their defense is not as good as years past either. Iowa was getting beat bad by Pitt before coming back late and they lost in OT to Iowa State there is nothing impressive on their resume including their 13-3 loss vs. Penn State. There is no doubt in my mind that Northwestern will be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Penn State had 395 total yards vs. them and Penn State's offense is embarrassing. I expect Persa to have a great game and if they can avoid the 2nd half struggles of losing double digit leads in the 2nd half they should win this game. Iowa's QB James Vandenberg is not a mobile QB that can buy time to find open guys and he also lacks the accuracy to make quick throws. I like Northwestern's defense to rebound from some awful games and we know Northwestern will win the turnover battle they are +7 on the year and hardly ever turn the ball over. Northwestern is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a road dog 3.5 - 10 points.

Florida -2 (5* Prime Time) I love Florida here they just had back to back weeks of playing against the two favorites to go to the National Championship with LSU and Alabama the two best defenses in the nation and maybe two of the more dominating defenses we have seen in many years. They lost their QB in the Alabama game, but Florida has plenty of talent to over come that loss especially going up against an Auburn team that is starting to fade out after a surprising hot start. Auburn's defense just is not there to give Florida any problems. Auburn is ranked 104th in total defense and 103rd vs. the run. Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps should have a field day and Auburn has shown a lot of issues defending teams operating out of the spread so expect Charlie Weis to use a lot of his spread packages and rotate QB's based on the plays. Yes, Florida has been vulnerable against the run the last two weeks and yes Auburn can run the ball with Michael Dyer, but Florida just faced two of the best offensive lines int he country and they are better than Auburn's bunch. Auburn is also one dimensional unlike LSU and Alabama who have a balanced attack. They are ranked 106th in passing and have a QB issue of their own. Trotter went 6-19 vs. Arkansas and teams have begun to stack the box to contain Dyer and I think Florida can do that on Saturday. Some key stats and takeaways from this game are. Auburn is allowing 50% conversions on 3rd down on defense while Florida is allowing 30%, no contest Florida can get off the field quicker than Auburn. Florida has allowed just 6 sacks and Auburn has just 7 sacks on the season. Florida should be able to keep Auburn's defense honest as they'll have time to throw, when they actually do. Both of these teams have a common opponent in their own building playing Florida Atlantic. Florida won 41-3 and were +333 yards despite 3 turnovers, while Auburn won 30-14 they were just +8 yards. Florida had 150 more yards on offense proving in my opinion that not only is their defense better but their offense is too and that is evident considering the line opened at pk and has moved to -2. Florida is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 as a road favorite and Auburn is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss.

Oregon State -2.5 -120 (4* PLAY) Love Oregon State here, BYU has replaced their QB and that's not always a good thing as dual threat QB Riley Nelson takes on a real defense for the vs. time all year after facing some suspect defenses the last few weeks. BYU has been really lucky to get 3 wins in a row and they have not been as impressive as many thought. Oregon State has gotten off to a slow start, but this team has rallied behind their coach before and their defense is the main reason for this play as they are much faster than the last 2 teams BYU has faced in San Jose and Utah State. Oregon State has come up with 5 turnovers in their win vs. Arizona last week. Freshmen Scott Crichton looks like the real deal he's #1 in tackles for loss in the Pac 12 and has 3 sacks on the year. Lastly this is a revenge spot for Oregon State as they lost in 2009 int he Las Vegas Bowl. There are still players on the Beavers who remember that game and will use it for motivation. The passing game the last few weeks has improved dramatically with Sean Mannion. I also believe he'll take care of the ball and Oregon State has forced 8 turnovers the last 2 games so they are turning into the defense they thought they had. Offensive weapons are there to give BYU problems with electrifying James Rodgers.

Buffalo +21.5 -120 (3.5* play) We know Temple by now they are an aggressive defense that forces turnovers and a team without a QB or passing game but elite running game and great offensive line. The only way they can cover a spread like this is by forcing turnovers, but Buffalo has only turned the ball over 4 times all year. They were -8 turnover margin last year and sit at +3 this year and they've faced some good teams like Pitt, CT, and Tennessee already and they were in the Pitt game for a while and then they just knocked off Ohio on their home turf a week ago. The same Ohio team that beat Temple last year. Buffalo has a balanced attack, but they will run the ball more which keeps that clock ticking. Branden Oliver is averaging 113.2 yards per game on the ground right behind Temple's NFL prospect Bernard Pierce 115.3. The difference is Buffalo has a QB that can throw the ball with over 1200 yards this year. At the end of the day there are not enough possession for Temple to cover this spread and Buffalo is not as bad as their 42-0 loss to Temple last year.

Mich St -2 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Michigan again off to a fast start and now getting Top 10 considerations? I think that's a joke, but here they are now facing their in state rival on the road. Michigan is a classic team that dominates out of conference but in conference they struggle 5-23 ATS in their last 28 conf games. They are also 7-20 ATS in their last 27 vs. a winning team and this line suggests they'd be favorites on a neutral field which I feel is a joke considering how well Mich State's defense has played. Mich State was +160 yards last year at Michigan and they foced Robinson into 3 interceptions that's going to be the key right there. Ya Mich State lost to Notre Dame and Michigan beat them, but Michigan had no business beating Notre Dame and really they were down double digits last week to an under rated Northwestern team. Denard Robinson had his way last week through the air but again he throws way too many turnovers and too many jump balls that he's gotten lucky with especially against Notre Dame. Robinson 9 interceptions on the year are among the worst in the nation and if he tries to take off and run Mich State is solid against the run ranked #3 nationally and they are tested a bit holding a very good Notre Dame running game to only 114 yards. Greg Jones is not a Spartan LB he's off playing in the NFL, but Mich St recruits well especially at LB and their defensive line will allow them to roam free. The standard run game won't work vs. Mich St not with Jerel Worthy anchoring a very good Dline. Now Michigan has been great in the red zone 22 of their 28 RZ tries have been TD's, but Michigan State has only allowed 3 TD in the red zone all year so they can force Michigan into field goal situations meanwhile I'm not sold on Michigan's alleged improved defense. For one they have gotten lucky forcing 12 fumbles. Well Mich State takes care of the ball just 2 fumbles and only 4 total turnovers on the year so you can bet they will win the turnover battle on Saturday. Next Michigan has 11 sacks, but Mich State has allowed just 5 on the year. Kirk Cousins is a very composed QB and experienced vs. Michigan. Dan Persa just threw for 336 yards and Nwestern running game was able elude tackles and get into the end zone. Mich State with an extra week to prepare should be able to get the running game going last year Edwin Baker had 22 carries and 147 yards and he's still there last I checked so is Le'Veon Bell who had 7 carries and 78 yards. Michigan's run defense stats look good but they haven't faced any teams that can run beside San Diego State and Notre Dame which had Wood and Hillman both over 100 yards and 6 yards per carry combined.

Hawaii -5 (4.4* NCAAF POD) This line has moved a little weird and normally I'd have to buy into a home dog in a national spot light playing a team traveling far for the game, but Hawaii comes into this game coming off a break. They have had extra time to prepare and with New Mexico State on deck there is no doubt in my mind they were not looking ahead at their schedule. The line is just 5 points because the last few match ups here have been decided by a TD, but Hawaii has not had a week off to plan. Also San Jose has looked good vs. BYU, UCLA, and Nevada, but all three of those teams don't throw the ball like Hawaii. Last time San Jose played a passing team they lost 57-3. The main issue here is San Jose does not get pressure they have just 3 sacks on the season. Hawaii was able to get a little more healthy on the offensive line that should allow Bryant Moniz time to throw. SJSU is -2 in turnover margin while Hawaii is +1 as Moniz takes care of the ball just 1 interception. Also SJSU is not scoring in the red zone, they have 18 trips with just 7 TD's and 6 FG's. Hawaii has been better on defense in years past and are allowing opponents to convert 37% of the time on 3rd downs which is about where the inconsistent SJSU is converting 38% of their opportunities. That's the difference in the game and the reason I like Hawaii here. Hawaii is 50% on 3rd down for the year and SJSU has allowed opponents to convert on 3rd downs 54% in their last 2 games. SJSU does not have the depth at RB to hold onto the ball nor do they have a consistent offense to keep up with Hawaii who is scoring 37.2 ppg while SJSU is allowing 31. Hawaii also has 19 sacks and are ranked 27th in total defense. That should be enough to give San Jose some issues especially with extra prep.

San Diego St +7.5 -115 buy 1/2 (4.5* NCAAF POD) SDST +250 1* BONUS Both teams on a short week and that normally means trouble for a team going up against the triple option, but the Aztecs are in Air Force division they are used to the triple option and more importantly they won at Army facing the triple option already this season which was a nice warm up to this game. First of all Air Force is really banged up with the possibility of 5 starters on defense missing this game they are already last in the nation in run defense and they gave up 9.2 yards per carry to Notre Dame and Ronnie Hillman ran for 191 yards vs. them last year. I think both teams come out and run the ball this will shorten the clock and that means a closer game. To me this game also comes down to turnovers and the Aztecs have 10 forced fumbles while the Falcons have -4 turnover margin they have the inability to force turnovers 10 less than the Aztecs and they continue to have problems fumbling the ball. They may run all over San Diego State and allow over 50% 3rd down conversions, but we have seen them do that before and still stay within a TD. I don't think Air Force is the team to blow any team out the way they hold onto the ball. They'd have to be nearly perfect in the red zone and they just haven't been this year. Their red Zone offense is 13 for 18 and I expect them to get stopped for FG like they did when they played TCU as they had 4 FG and 1 TD. On the other side San Diego State has a balanced attack and they have faced a much stronger schedule this year playing vs. Michigan in non conference while Air Force has mixed it up with Tenn St and South Dakota where they gave up nearly 400 yards to each team and over 4 yards per carry. Bottom line the under dog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in the match up and Air Force is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

SDSU +4.5 (4.5* NCAAF LNF) San Diego State surprised TCU a bit in the 4th quarter I think last year as they lost 40-35 on the road and now SDSU gets revenge after having an extra week to prepare. They'll do all of this during their recruiting week which is a big deal to attract talented high school players. But more imporantly I think they can win this game out right as TCU just is not the same defense it was in the last few years. SMU put up 40 points on them and they gave up 350+ yards through the air and they are also giving up chunks on the ground as they gave up 6, 10+ yard carries to Zach Line a week ago. Ronnie Hillman is considered by some to be one of the best running backs in the country and he'll get his chance to prove it. Ryan Lindley the QB does not have the WR weapons of a year ago but he's still putting up a balanced attack and not turning the ball over as SDSU is +7 in turnover margin while TCU is even. SDSU is tied for the league lead in forced turnovers this year in the Mountain West with 12, so I think we could see some of the same things tonight. Lindley also has only been sacked 2 times this year and TCU's pass rush is just average. That should allow Lindley plenty of time to get first downs especially on 3rd downs where TCU is allowing 46% of 3rd down conversions.

Ohio State +11.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD); OSU +400 (1.5* PLAY) I remember this story isn't it so similar. A team with a solid defense loses at home and then goes on the road as a double digit favorite against a one dimensional offense? That was Texas losing to Oklahoma on their way to play Nebraska as a +10 dog. The result was a winner for us and an outright Texas victory 20-13, then Texas folded. I think Ohio State can have a similar result on Saturday night. First thing first Nebraska's offense is absolutely one dimensional and Ohio State has seen very similar type of approaches from Michigan and at least Denard Robinson is a threat to throw the ball. Taylor Martinez is absolutely not a threat throwing 5 interceptions and barely completing 50% of his passes. The public is pounding Nebraska after their terrible offensive performance vs. Michigan STate, but Mich State is quietly leading the nation in total defense and Ohio State now looks to start a new QB which could have a big impact on this game. It's also not like Nebraska's defense is the same they can be beat in the secondary with 3 new starters and that should open things up a bit for the running game of Ohio State, but it will be the defense that carries this team as they are 23rd vs. the run 13th in total offense and 11th in points allowed. I don't see what Nebraska has done to warrant being a double digit favorite as they lost at Wisconsin 17-48. I know Ohio State's offense has been awful, but they get an NFL caliber tackle back this week in Mike Adams and that should help. Despite all the issues Ohio State is still +4 turnover margin and they forced a very good experienced QB in Kirk Cousins into 3 turnovers. Ohio State has allowed just 10 possessions in the red zone this year that will mean that Nebraska gets there only twice in this game yet they are double digit favorites? I don't see it in a game they will be most likely negative in turnover margin and the clock should be ticking with both teams running the ball a lot. Ohio Sate is 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning team, 20-7-1 ATS following a SU loss, 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 conference games. Nebraska got a nice welcome to the Big Ten last week vs. Wisconsin. Nebraska is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite 10.5+ and is 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite of 10.5+ they don't want to play aggressively and score a ton of points when they get up they sit on that clock and that provides us nice value for a cover.

Georgia -1.5 (5* NCAAF Prime Time) I'll highlight what I"m about to go over.. First things first Tennessee is always a tough home team in conference play so I'm not under estimating them I just know Georgia is the hotter team right now and have faced a tougher schedule which I'll get into in a minute. Tennesse is one dimensional offense, they can't force TO's, they have benefited from the weak schedule and their blocking along the offensive line will finally be tested. Georgia has faced Boise, South Carolina, Miss, and Miss St while the Volunteers faced Florida and a Big East team. Stats and numbers are flawed and everyone is talking about QB Tyler Bray who has 14 TD's and 2 INT's, but Bray faces a real defense for hte first time without star WR Justin Hunter and now we will see them struggle as Georgia can get pressure and they have 8 interceptions already this year and are +2 in turnover margin while TN does not force turnovers only 1 interception. That's been the one weakness of Georgia QB Aaron Murray he throws INT's I think he escapes with his best game of the year. Georgia also has been getting to the QB as I mentioned in their last 2 games they have 9 sacks. That does not bode well as Bray is not used to feeling any type of pressure and I'd be interested to see if his inexperience shows. I'm betting it will. Georgia has held opponents to 25% on 3rd down conversions which will be a key stat in covering this spread as they are ranked 4th in the nation in pass defense and in their SEC games they are holding opposing QB's to 47.2% completion percentage. No doubt Bray is the best one they've faced, but he's also inexperienced. This is actually a big game as the SEC East is wide open with South Carolina and Florida losing last week. Georgia's defense is a real strength on this team and they have a balanced offensive attack especially since freshmen RB Isaih Crowell has rushed for more than 100 yards in 3 straight SEC games. This will be the game that Georgia's experienced offensive line looks the part. Lastly Tenn's special teams is a mess. How much of a mess they have allowed opponents to block punts in back to back games. Georgia has a real strength here in the punting and the kicking game and I expect it to help them get a big time road win in week 6.

LSU -13 (2.2* PLAY) How can you not back LSU even against a very good and deeply talented Florida team. Florida is off an emotional loss and unfortunately this is not the team you follow up with after a performance like last week. They nearly got off to a 14-3 lead vs. Alabama, but we know the rest is history as Brantley got hurt and Florida couldn't manage 50 yards of total offense the rest of the game and were shut out the final 3 quarters. LSU's defense is just as good if not better and Florida is going on the road for this game, I don't think so. LSU should be able to run much like Alabama did as they averaged 5.3 ypc. Florida on the other hand have turned into a one dimensional team. Driskel takes over at QB and he threw 2 interceptions in a partial game now he goes up against the best secondary with playmakers all over the field. You can dink and dunk all you want with Demps and Rainey that will not get you anywhere against the speed of the Tigers who will cover this spread via short field position and forced turnovers turning into points.

Utah +4 (3.3* play) Utah had an ugly game last week vs. Washington now doubt and now they face Arizona State that's supposed to be the best, but hold up a second because Utah played right with USC on the road and despite Utah losing their QB Jordan Wynn I actually think they may be better off as they were last in the Pac 12 in total offense despite having a really good running back. Starting Jon Hays and running the spread offense again should result in more points. Utah's defense has been great and the defensive line should give Arizona some big problems on Saturday. Utah is a desperate team and they'll play like that on Saturday. The main reason for this pick though is the injuries on the Arizona State offensive line and Utah's ability to stop the run ranked 31st, and their strength up front that should get pressure at home forcing Arizona State to be one dimensional. Arizona State is giving the ball away 2 times a game and that's another spot Utah should be able to take advantage. Arizona State is the flavor of month in a wide open Pac 12 and they are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite 3.5-10 points, while Utah is 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 as a dog 3.5 to 10points.

Rutgers +7.5 -120 (4.5* Play) Rutgers +240 1* bonus Well Pitt has really turned around their season looking like their defense is real and Todd Graham's fast paced offense is starting to click, but now they go on the road to face a Rutgers team that is coming in under the radar. Rutgers is 18-7 ATS in their last 26 as a dog 3.5 -10 points and they look to revenge last year's 21-41 loss on the road. Rutgers always covers spreads as big dogs because they play defense, and particularly they play good run defense as they are ranked 12th in the nation and that's the strength of this Pitt team behind Ray Graham. But hold up as Pitt will be without two guards in this game that could hurt because if Rutgers can stop the run I think they win this game out right and that's a real possibility on Saturday. Rutgers is #1 int he Big East in sacks, scoring defense and turnover margin. Their only loss was on the road to a tough North Carolina team 22-24. Pitt's OL is last in the nation sacks allowed and that should be a huge edge if Rutgers can stop the run first. Pitt has been great in the red zone 20 of 21 with 16 of those 20 being TD's, but Rugers defense has only allowed 10 possessions int he red zone all year and 4 were TD's. I think they'll limit the trips for Pitt in the red zone in this game. People are looking past Rutgers defense and that could benefit us big time. Pittsburgh's struggles on defense are in the pass defense. Despite what anyone says I never bought into South Florida and their pass offense. Nobody is buying into Rutgers pass offense but they have a WR in Mohammed Sanu who is averaging 10.8 receptions a game and is one of the better players in the nation that nobody is talking about. Another sleeper is the WR that led the Big East in yards per catch and TD's for a WR in Mark Harrisson. He's been quiet early this year mainly because Rutgers has been unable to provide the protection, but at home and with Pitt on the road where they've played just once I bet he finds the end zone. Lastly there is a huge advantage when Pitt let go Dave Wannstedt Rutgers picked up three coaches in offensive coordinator Cignetti, TE and secondary coach so that should be an edge .

Fresno +21 (4* Friday Night Lights)
This is not a play of the day despite it being our only college play I just do not view it in that respect.

Oregon -23.5 (4.4* NCAAF POD)
I like Oregon here despite both teams having extra rest and time to prepare for each other.

Miss +4 (4* play) Miss +150 (1* bonus) As bad as it's been this year for Miss they now face a team they can beat up on offensively. Fresno is a good team and they can certainly shock a BCS team but they are no mystery to an Ole Miss team that is desperate for a win here with some tough games upcoming. Fresno only beat an FCS opponent by 5 points at home earlier this year and have been struggling just as much. They are 11-28-1 in their last 40 as a favorite. This is a game that you normally find Fresno as the dog, but in years past they have relished that roll into victories. I think the oddsmakers are trying to be a little sneaky here and I'm not buying it for several reasons. For one Ole Miss has the same big offensive line that was said to be the best in the SEC as they did last year that ran the ball 425 yards against Freson good for 9 yard per carry average. They have played some good defensive lines early but this is a game they can get the running game going with Brandon Bolden. Actually they can probably pass the ball a bit as Fresno has not shown an ability to lock that part of their defense either. On the other side of the ball the return of Kentrell Lockett on the line has the defense playing better of late. They already have 7 interceptions and it's the fastest and most athletic inexperienced QB Derek Carr has seent his year. They held Georgia to just 3 points in the 2nd half. Lastly Miss also has the #1 punt game in kicking and returning and that will play a huge factor tonight. Ole Miss is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non conference games 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a road dog.

Florida +4 (4* NCAAF Prime Time) Interesting match up. Alabama and Florida are very similar in this game. Alabama's defense is better than Florida, but Florida has a bit more experience at QB and a bit more speed and talent on offense than Alabama. Add in that they are home and I think we have a slightly off line. If anything it should be Alabama -2.5 or something in that neighborhood. I do not see Alabama having the offense to cover this spread as we saw them struggle early in both games vs. Arkansas and Penn State. Florida is a team that can sustain a competitive game into the 4th quarter and are capable of pulling the upset. The minds are their in the coaching staff to out smart Nick Saban that's for sure and I wonder if Florida's inexperience in the secondary can even be an issue because AJ McCarron lacks the accuracy to go deep. Alabama also lacks the pass protection for play actions to take advantage because Florida has one of the best defensive lines and also we have shown Alabama struggle a bit more than Florida has in that department. Looking at last year's battle between these two it was basically even if it were not for the fast start by Alabama that went up 24-0 and were +4 turnover in the game. Charlie Weiss pro style offense has resulted in less turnover and John Brantley is playing game manager. He probably has the most speed of any other team in the country in the backfield and at receivers so Alabama who has arguably the best defense will have their hands full with Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps. AT the end of the day Alabama will try to run the ball because though Florida is 5th in the nation vs. the run they have yet to be tested. This should result in 3rd in 4's and 5's or short where Alabama will have to pass and Florida's defensive line will continue to dominate (7 sacks in 1st two SEC games). Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Colorado -2.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Washington State under their head man Wulff is 1-17 on the road. Colorado is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss. Colorado has played some quality opponents in Hawaii, Cal and Ohio State while Wash State did not play anyone early then they faced their first team with a pulse in San Diego State and got beat giving up over 500 yards and they were sacked 4 times. San Diego State gave up a few weaknesses that Colorado can take advantage of at home in the high altitude. 1st thing is the running game as San Diego State RB Hillman ran for 191 yards. Rodney Stewart from Colorado has the skill to spark this offense. Actually this offense has clicked behind Stewart and QB Tyler Hansen the Sr. is quietly having a quality start to the season with 1150 yards 9 TD and 1 INT vs. some quality opponents. Washington State can not get pressure and they are weak up front which should favor Colorado which will have a balanced attack in this one. Look out for one of the best receivers in the Pac 12 in Paul Richardson for Colorado who has 22 receptions 398 yards. VS. California he had 11 for 284 and has been quiet the last two weeks. I expect him to get back to that success this week. Next advantage is Washington state's weakness up front on their offensive line and it really showed against San Diego State who sacked them 6 times. Colorado is strong up front they are 10th in the nation in sacks and they have gotten 3 or more in each game. This will be an advantage late in the 2nd half I think Colorado can end some late drives. Washington St had high hopes this year behind Jeff Tuel but he got hurt in the first game and although his back up is capable he's not nearly as good and Colorado's secondary is the weakness although it's been a strength so far givin up just 283.5 yards per game 26th nationally. I think that continues the line is low because Wash St is averaging 439.67 yards per game, but Colorado is the best defense they have faced all year by a mile and it's on the road in a conference game.

Northwestern +10 (4.5* play) Nwestern +315 (1* bonus) Northwestern gets their star QB back which is the exact opposite of last year's match up at Wrigley Field when they started a freshmen in his first start after Persa's injury. Dan Persa last year threw for 2,581 yards 15 TD 4 INT's rushed for 519 in just 9 games and he had a nation's best 73.5% completion percentage. He may be rusty early, but it's still a huge advantage that will open up this offense a lot this week vs. a ranked team looking for revenge of last year's embarassing defeat where they just gave up too many big plays in the running game. Northwestern comes into this game with an extra week to prepare and they should be motivated to play a very physical game on defense that should keep this tight. Illinois exposed themselves last week while they have been able to get into the backfield Western Michigan turned to a quick passing game that turned in results in a 3 point loss to Illinois and I'm sure Northwestern will be looking to do the same they definitely have the talent at QB and WR to make that kind of a game plan. Illinois has lived off turnovers early and penalties from opponents in close games. When you are a heavy running team you usually do not blow opponents out and I feel the same will be the case on Saturday. Northwestern does not commit penalties and they do not turn the ball over which will keep this game close. Northwestern lost before their off week to a triple option offense in Army that took advantage. That does not worry me because it's hard to prepare for that kind of option offense when you are not used to facing it. It was a good warm up for Illinois option rushing attack and you better believe they were looking ahead to this game and that played a part for their loss vs. a very under rated Army team. Illinois is just 1-15 in their last 16 years in Big Ten openers and 8-19 ATS in their last 27 vs. a winning team 2-14 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite 3.5-10pts. Northwestern on the other hand is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road dog games and 17-5 in their last 22 as a road dog 3.5 -10 pts as they almost always stay in these type of games.

Toledo +8 (3* play) We backed Temple in back to back weeks in fact we had them at +290 out right winners last week and we are 3-0 in their games this year, but this week we fade them. They come off a huge win and I think they will have a let down this week. Toledo has the 26th ranked passing attack and Temple will be tested in the secondary. Temple is coming after opposing attacks, but they have yet faced a team that can pass like Toledo which has had a tough schedule to start the year playing right with Ohio State a very similar team to Temple on the road where they lost 22-27 after leading in the 4th quarter. They also played right with Syracus before winning in regulation but a blown call on an extra point and they lose in over time. Austin Dantin led the offense on 6 scoring drives vs. Syracus and should be able to move the ball enough to score points vs. Temple. Temple's offense is still one dimensional, but they pose the best RB in the land in my opinion in Bernard Pierce. Toledo knows this team very well this is a conference game and Temple will run the ball all day Pierce got 40 carries vs. them last year and I expect in the end for it to be a close game. Toledo is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following an ATS loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 in conference play.

Utah State +8 -115 (4.5* NCAAF POD)I love Utah State as this is a great exposure game for their team and players in what their head coach has said he

U52 4.5* play, pit+8.5/U58 2.2* teaser bonus!
This game I lean towards Pittsburgh and being the home team as an under dog coming off two losses, but I

AZ State -2.5 (4* Late Night Fix)
USC has not been an impressive 3-0 team in my opinion they got lucky at home vs. Utahand struggled on the road vs. Minnesota. AZ ST returns home after a tough road loss to a Big Ten team and I think they are more focused on the PAC12 and they'll be looking to revenge last year's loss on the road by 1 point to the Trojans. Look for Brock Osweiler and crew to get up early and score a lot of points after being held to 14 a week ago they will be anxious to get back to scoring points and they should be able to against USC. For USC this is the first test they have had all year and they are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following an ATS win. Oddsmaker's have over exaggerated their prior victories and in my opinion they are doing it again.

LSU -5.5 (5.5* NCAAF POD) Don't miss out easily the game of the week and we are confident in LSU's ability to win on the road in hostile environments. This is a rematch of last years 20-14 home victory by LSU and one thing is for sure both teams are different than they are a year ago. In my opinion West Virginia has digressed with Dana Holgorsen so far as the defense just is not the same with this up tempo offense coming off the field much quicker. The defense is going to spend a lot of time on the field in this game because LSU's defense is special. LSU prepared all off season for a spread attack with a special running game and that was not for West Virginia but for Oregon and they dominated that game in a 40-27 victory. Oregon is far better than West Virginia on offense with an elite running game that LSU shut down. West Virginia can not muster any sort of a running game just 79 yards per game. LSU also shut down the prolific Miss St's rushing game last week which was very impressive. West Virginia will go to the passing game and Geno Smith was 14-29 last year vs. LSU and I don't think it will be any prettier despite how explosive the offense has looked because they've been inconsistent. This is the first time they are facing a dominant defense that can get into the backfield. LSU now has 30 tackles for loss already. They'll easily take away the running game and the offense WV is going to run is not built to beat this LSU defense which is littered with speed athleticism and next level talent including a duo in the secondary that is making many forget about Patrick Peterson in Mathieu/Claiborne. My favorite stat is West Virginia's once dominating defense they were 2nd in sacks last year and 2nd in run defense. What happened? They have 1 sack through 3 games and do not seem as dominant as years past and that's the extra time they have spent on the field that's killing them. LSU behind a physical and veteran offensive line are starting to build some rhythm behind Spencer Ware. Jarret Lee is QB this year and I think that's a huge difference. He does not turn the ball over and LSU bone head turnovers seem to be cut down. In the match up they had 3 turnovers and 12 penalties yet they salvaged a win. I'm buying into this LSU team this year I think it comes down to their match up vs. Alabama on whether or not they got to the national championship.

Oklahoma St +4.5 (4.4* play) Okl St +170 (2* bonus) Oklahoma State as under dogs I can't pass this opportunity up despite Texas A&M talent on offense that features a balanced attack and impressive running game behind Cyrus Gray. This game really comes down to whether or not A&M can get pressure on Weeden. A&M lost Von Miller to the Broncos and though they have 11 sacks already I don't believe they can be the same against Oklahoma State that returns all 5 of their starters on the offensive line which finished 1st in sacks allowed in the Big 12 a year ago. Also this line opened up a lot for a running game and A&M showed issues vs. SMU in tackling Zach Line and Joseph RAndle has shown an ability to break tackles already. IF A&M tries to load the box Oklahoma State has the best receivers in the nation led by Justin Blackmon. Even though Oklahoma State won last year they did not play well and I think they are determined to go on the road and play well vs. TX A&M. TX A&M strength is the running game and what most are talking about in terms of an advantage in this match up because Okl St gave up 365 yards to Tulsa. I think that's where this line got inflated big time. First of all most of that game in a game that was delayed and didn't finish until nearly 4am and it came after Oklahoma State had a 40 point lead at half time. I don't know any team up 40 points at 3 in the morning that would be motivated to play defense. A&M will try to run the ball early which could be a risk because Idaho actually loaded the box and held them to 3.7 ypc on 38 carries. OKl State's defensive line and linebackers are a little more talented than Idaho's. I think Oklahoma St can take advantage and get up early on forcing A&M into some 3rd and longs by stopping the run. This team has 9 take away already this year and that can be the difference on Saturday.

Ohio +4.5 (3.3* play) Frank Solich has his team off to a great start while Rutgers played a game at North Carolina that was a measuring stick and lost despite being +5 in turnover margin. Now they face a very good and very consistent and pesky team out of the MAC in Ohio. Ohio has a veteran offensive line and they return a real NFL talent off an injury from a year ago in Lavon Brazill to pair along with Sr. Phil Bates allows this team to be a real scoring threat against anybody. Also Ohio will force turnovers unlike the opponents Rutgers has faced thus far. They have 8 interceptions already and have given up 10 points in their last 2 games and just dominated Marshall a week after Marshall shocked a very good Southern Miss team. Rutgers will struggle as they are not used to seeing a Pistol no huddle offense that Ohio will bring into this game. I expect them to stop the running game, but they may have issues defending the pass. On the other side of the ball I'm a bit skeptical despite having two next level WR on their roster in Sanu and Harrison I'm not buying into their QB Chas Dodd who is completing just 53.1 % of their passes. The offensive line is a huge question mark and they may even start two freshment his week. Ohio's defensive line is good enough to make an impact in this game. They held Marshall 2-12 on third downs a week ago while they converted 10 of 18 on 3rd or 4th down which impresses me considering Marshal boasts one of the best defensive lines in the MAC. Ohio is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 as a road dog and 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 following a SU win, while Rugers is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 in September and 1-9-1 ATS int heir last 11 as a favorite 3.5 to 10. Though they come off a bye I suspect this team is more focused on their Big East opener.

Temple +9 (3.3* play) Temple +290 (.5* play) Last week we won easily on Temple over Penn State as they almost ended their losing streak vs. the Nittany Lions. Both teams come into this game hoping to rebound from emotional losses as Maryland lost to West Virginia. Temple's defense has been outstanding just 284 yards allowed per game and 8ppg. They even shut down a Penn State offense that although has not been doing much is still very talented up front. Temple's very under rated and their defense is real, aggressive and fast and athletic enough to give Maryland fits. Sophmore QB O'brien has had a lot of hype, but so far he has 2 TD to 4 INT so I'm not that impressed just yet despite all the yards he's thrown for. Both teams will come out and try to establish the run which will shorten the game. Temple's massive offensive line should have an advantage vs. Marylands speed and athleticism in the power running game. Maryland has yet to face a team that likes to play physical and likes to pound the ball so this could be a different type of game for them. Maryland has been unable to get a pass rush so I expect Temple to be better than week's past in the passing game especially when they have talent at receiver and an NFL talent at TE in Evan Rodriguez. Maryland's offensive ranks have more to do with tempo and less to do with their actual talent they've had too many penalties and turnovers for me to back them or to be 9 point favorites off an emotional loss. Adrian Robinson was in the backfield vs. Penn State all game long and that should not change vs. Maryland.

Under 44 4.4* pod
And ucf +3 -120 3* bonus
The only reason I