[b]FSU -3 -120 buy hook 4* PLAY[/b]

This line has dropped more than 4 points since opening and can be found at -3.5 in majority of books.. It's too much value now on the side of Florida State who is 1-6 ATS on the year.  Perception is that they are not as good as last year yet they still have the best QB in the land behind 4 returning offensive linemen and they have put up 30+ points in all 6 of his starts this year, some against some top defenses.  Coming off a bye where they won a close won against Notre Dame should help as Winston just lit it up at the end of that game.  I think the offense gets better here and the defense as well.  Remember off a bye last year they went to Clemson and won 51-14.

Here comes Louisville with the #1 defense by far.  However, they have only played one team ranked inside the top 60 in yards per play and that was Miami in the first week of the season.  Louisville has not faced a top 50 passing attack from a QB rating perspective since Miami and MIami has come a long way since their loss to Louisville.  Winston and Florida State is just a different monster that I don't think Louisville can win.  For one their offensive line has been terrible ranked 122nd in pass protection and 113th in yards per carry.  You better put up 30 points against the Seminoles if you are going to have any shot at winning.  The strength of Louisville has been the passing game, but that falls right into the strength of Florida State's defense with two 1st round draft picks at corner in PJ Williams and Ronald Darby who have yet to play up to their potential.

This game is all about where people think Florida State is.. they have had over a week to hear how they are not as good and how they were lucky to beat Notre Dame.  I see this game being close late and that's just a situation I don't see that Louisville is experienced enough to win.  Florida State has needed some heroics in 4 of their last 8 games late in the game either 4th quarter or OT so they are very much used to it.  Jameis Winston has a 194.57 QB rating in the 4th quarter.

Washington State +125 5.5* NCAAF POD (6pm ET)

Two evenly matched teams and Arizona is the favorite and the ranked team, but on the road.  Both of these teams have had similar results against similar opponents with big wins on the road.  Arizona won against Oregon and Washington State won against Utah.

Washington State should not have any problems moving the ball against Arizona especially at home.  Arizona is 102nd in opposing QB rating and they don’t have a defensive line that can get a pass rush against Washington State’s quick passing offense.  Arizona is also 109th in yards per pass attempt which also suggests some tackling issues.

Connor Halladay at home is just a dominant QB with a 171 QB rating 17 TD to just 2 INT with 9.1 yards per attempt and 2.07 sack % which are all top 20 in the nation for home passing offenses.  Arizona had gotten big road wins because of their pass rush, but they faced some teams with vulnerabilities in protecting their QB. Oregon 117th and Texas San Antonio 109th.  Arizona’s secondary is no good and they should be lit up in this one.

It’s also hard to ignore the fact that Arizona has major issues in the red zone both on offense and defense and in the opponent they face on Saturday.  They are scoring just 46% TD’s in the RZ and allowing nearly 71%.  Meanwhile Washington State is flipped at 66% (80% at home) and 50% allowed.  Washington State is a desperate team right now they need a win if they want to get back into the bowl discussion and they are off a bye week with 1 extra day to prepare for this home game. 

Georgia Tech +3 4.4* Play (3:30pm ET)

Pitt is off a big win that looks less impressive seeing how bad Virginia Tech has looked over the past few weeks.  Pitt is one of the youngest teams and they will be a bit high on themselves following a win and that won’t help when they have to face Georgia Tech’s triple option rushing game.  Nobody can stop the triple option it seems and while Pitt’s run defense has been very good this year they have only faced 1 team ranked in the top 50 in rushing offense while Georgia Tech is top 10 in yards per game and yards per carry and it’s a unique unit they haven’t really been used to facing.  Georgia Tech put up 297 yards on them last year and this unit is less experienced.

Meanwhile Pitt is doing a great job of running the ball also, and Georgia Tech has not been able to stop any running teams.  Georgia Tech has faced 4 teams in the top 40 in yards per carry as well as North Carolina’s running QB.  Georgia Tech will prove to be just too much as Justin Thomas can throw the ball too and they are converting 59% on third down and 71% in the red zone which will be the difference since Pitt has allowed 73.33% TD’s in the red zone this year.

Michigan +17 2.2* Play (3:30pm ET)

Rivalry game here and Michigan State has Ohio State next.  These players will fight for their coach and they have an extra week of preparation.  Michigan’s defense is playing out of their minds when you consider how bad the offense has been.  They are 11th in yards per play allowed and 6th in yards per carry and 28th in sack %.  This is the best defense Michigan State has faced considering they haven’t faced a past rush unit in the top 50 before, and they have only faced 1 top 50 run defense.  Both games they struggled to run the ball they were held to 27 points as they fell apart late against Oregon and nearly lost against Nebraska.  Michigan has been bad and they may lose this by 50, but there is too much value in this rivalry game and I bet the Wolverines come out with a little passion and cover the spread because their defense has been solid all year.

Oklahoma State -1 4.4* PLAY (3:30pm ET)

West Virginia played their game of the year beating Baylor by 14 as a +8.5 home dog while Oklahoma State lost big to TCU a team who choked against Baylor the week before. How in the hell is Oklahoma State favored then?   Well Oklahoma State has won 6 of their last 7 home coming games, and they are 22-2 in their last 24 home games.  Despite how well West Virginia’s  defense played a week ago they still ranked 105th in sack %, 91st in yards per carry allowed and 75th in yards per play.  This is a different team on the road allowing 516 yards per game.

Oklahoma State was the ranked team last year playing on the road against West Virginia when the Mountaineers pulled off the upset.  Oklahoma State is being underestimated here based off of one blowout loss against TCU on the road.  Oklahoma State nearly beat Florida State to open the season at home 37-31 which is impressive since they are one of the youngest team in the nation playing the defending champions.  Oklahoma State can do a lot of things well and that will typically keep you in ball games with a chance to win.

Oklahoma State’s run defense is the key.  In their wins they have held opponents to 3.11 ypc and 5.17 in losses.  Given the fact that West Virginia is only averaging 3.46 on the road and 5 of the 6 run defenses they have faced have kept them under their own ypc allowed gives me confidence that Oklahoma State will be able to do the same and keep this game in control.  West Virginia may start to press and they are -11 in turnover margin on the year where Oklahoma State has notoriously held a big advantage in forced turnovers.

Texas +10 4.4* Play (12pm ET)

We were on Kansas State’s big win over Oklahoma last week, but now they are in an interesting game which is very dangerous.  First of all throw out Texas lack of defense last week against Iowa State.  It can all be fixed and it was expected following their game against Oklahoma which is also their biggest rivalry.  They will turn it around this week and Texas is the most complete defense that Kansas State has faced all year which is a concern.

Kansas State’s offense has looked great behind Jake Waters, but they haven’t faced a pass rush  like this before.  Texas is in the top 10 in sack %, opponent QB rating and passing yards per attempt.  Their run defense has struggled a bit but is still top 45 in the nation and Kansas State’s ground game is not what it’s been in the past.  Texas has shown they can dominate in run defense especially early in games and I think Kansas State will rely on their running game so much that it will shorten the game and give Texas a chance.

Texas has a chance because the offense has dramatically improved behind Tyrone Swopes who is off back to back solid performances against better passing defenses than Kansas State.  Kansas State could win the Big 12 but they won’t because of their pass defense.  Part of the problem is they are 124th in sack % and 84th in opponent QB rating. For what it’s worth Kansas State only beat Iowa State by 4 while Texas only won by 3.  I think Texas is not as far away as we once thought.  Both teams also played Oklahoma similarly. 

Troy +15 -108 3.5* Friday Night Lights

I'll Take Troy here as they are not as bad as their 53-14 loss agaisnt App State, but on paper if you look real quick the public will hammer South Alabama because of this.  Their 53-14 loss at home was worse because South Alabama won 47-21 on the road against App State, but App State was able to move the ball just fine on South Alabama.  The difference in both of those games was turnovers and I'll use that to our advantage, becasue I don't think South Alabama is as good as what the line is saying.

First of all this is an instate rivalry and South Alabama has 2 games coming up next against Arkansas State and La Lafayette which will determine their fate in the Sun Belt Conference.  I see them peaking ahead given the fact that the players will simply over look this team.  Troy's run defense has been hit or miss, but it's worth noting they have come up with some decent performances.. For instance they held Duke a very good running team under their season average.  It's worth noting Duke has been a one dimensional team which leaves me to believe that Troy can play decent defense against a team that can't throw the ball.  South Alabama can not throw the ball and their QB is only completing 51.4% of his passes compared with Troy's QB Brandon Silvers completing 68.7%.  

South Alabama will rely on their running game, but they just lost thier star RB Jay Jones toa  season ending injury and their rushing offense has only out rushed what their opponent was giving up once this season and that was to Georgia State who is worse in run defense then Troy and they still only beat them by 3 points.  At the end of the day this could be another lousy team going on the road only to get beat, but they are playing for a good head coach who will be retiring against an in state rival who is looking ahead to more important games.  I'll take the greater than 2 TD spread.

Virginia Tech +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

I think the Hokies will cover and win this game outright.  The stock on the Hokies has plummeted, but they are still in the mix and could have won last week's game at Pittsburgh on the road without their top 3 running backs.  Now they are likely to have Marshawn Williams back against and easier defense to move the ball against and they get to face them at home.  Miami has already given up 300+ yards on the ground to two opponents this year which should allow Virginia Tech to put some points on the board. 

Virginia Tech's defense is the main reason why I'll take the Hokies.  Bud Foster's group is still at top 15 unit and can stop the pass and run.  Virginia Tech will look to stop the run first to create third and longs.  I think the Hurricanes will be out coached in this game by far.  Virginia Tech is actually better than their numbers say against the run when you throw in how hard Georgia Tech's triple option is to stop.  The last time Miami faced a defense this good they lost 13-31 to Louisville.  Miami QB Brad Kaaya has not played well on the road with 2 interceptions in each game all 3 losses.  Virginia Tech will get after him with the 3rd ranked pass rush while Miami is a suspect 67th in protecting the QB.  What makes matters worse is they are actually converting on just 24.6% of their third downs and that's where Virginia Tech is set up well to win this game.

Miami is converting just 21% of third downs on the road and 24% overall compared with Virginia Tech's 44.5% and 50.7% at home and 26% on defense.  Miami is going to have issues converting there is no doubt about it while Virginia Tech should have more success.  Almost every offense that Miami's defense faced converted at a higher % on third down with exception of Duke where Miami was at home.  Even against Georgia Tech who was converting 59% on the season.  The same is true for the offense they converted at just 26% against their last two opponents who were allowing 50% to their opponents.  Now going against arguably the best defense they have faced.  The same issues are true in the red zone as they have converted just 53% TD's and have allowed 83% on the road.  Virginia Tech also struggles in the red zone but their defense has allowed 43%.

The big play... Bud Foster will have things solved and the defense should not give up any big plays here tonight at home with the blitzes and the front 7 getting to the QB just a bit faster at home.  Pitt beat this team with their QB taking off and that's not something Miami's QB can do at all. 

Northwestern +7 2.2* play

Northwestern has turned their season around and could have won on the road last week if it weren't for a 100 yard kickoff return they allowed late in the 4th quarter after a brilliant 97 yard TD drive by Trevor Siemann.  Minnesota only manged 274 yards as Northwestern's defense continues to play well.  Northwestern can stop the run and I'm not surprised that Minnesota won last week at home coming off a bye when Northwestern was off two huge Big Ten wins.  I think Northwestern has a good chance to bounce back against Nebraska who relies on the run too much.  Nebraska has been running it 64% of the time with good reason they have the best RB int he country and they are averaging 6.22 ypc, but a closer look and they have only faced 1 top 50 run defense and that was Michigan State who they averaged 1.27 ypc against.  

Tommy Armstrong just can't be the difference maker as he is completing just 51.9% of his passes and has a tendency to turn the ball over which is a big deal considering Northwestern has allowed 6 TD and has  9 interceptions and are ranked 23rd in opposing QB rating to go with their top 50 run defense.  These two traditionally play in close games as Northwestern has lost some heart breakers the last few years including last year by a hail mary.  The last 3 games have been decided by 7 points combined and I see no reason why this one won't come down to 1 possession. 

Missouri +6 4* play -120

Missouri is certainly not as bad as it showed last week in their 34-0 loss to Georgia as MIssouri turned the ball over 5 times.  They had only turned the ball over 4 times before that game.  I Look for them to bounce back here as they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 following an ATS loss and 10-2 ATS following a SU loss.  Gary Pinkel is a much better coach than Will Muschamp who is 4-11 ATS following a SU loss.  I don't think his team plays for him and after a devastating loss to LSU last week we will surely find out if he's on his way out.

What got lost in Missouri's loss to Georgia last week was their defense that is just as good as Florida's.  They were on the field for 42 minutes and still held Georgia in check.  Florida's offense is just terrible led by Jeff Driskel who has a 102 QB Rating.  I still trust Matty Mauk more who has more than twice the number of TD's and is completing more than 1 yards more per attempts.  Missouri is just a bit better in red zone offense and defense and that will be the difference in my opinion.

San Jose -1.5 4.4* Mountain West Game of the Month

San Jose State comes into the game off their second bye week of the young season.  That's a big advantage especailly this week with Wyoming playing last Saturday night or early Sunday in Hawaii.  Having to fly all the way back and play a team off a bye is a major disadvantage for a team that is struggling.  Wyoming has been decent passing the ball ranked in the top 75 in QB Rating and pass completion %, but have struggled to run the ball and now they face San Jose State who is 2nd in opponent completion % and 1st in opponent QB rating.  San Jose has allowed only 1 passing TD and held Auburn on the road to 56% completion % and were only -174 yards and held the ball for 35 minutes of the game.  San Jose's offense will get a chance to get both the running and passing game going when you consider Wyoming's defense is 101st in yards/play allowed and ranked 104th vs. the run and 110th vs. the pass.

San Jose has advantages on third down allowing 35% conversions compared with Wyoming 49%.   Wyoming has a couple of wins at home against Air Force and Florida Atlantic, but San Jose is just a bit better and has more speed than both of those teams.

Arkansas +4 5.5* NCAAF POD

Arkansas is a desperate team here looking for a win in the SEC for the first time in 16 games.  They keep inching closer and closer and really out played Alabama at home last week, but an extra point miss kept them from winning this game or forcing OT.  Georgia meanwhile went on the road and flat out dominated Missouri 34-0, but they were not as good as that score indicates while Missouri turned the ball over 5 times.  MIssouri's defense was on the field for 42 minutes, yet they still held Georgia under 400 yards and Georgia never had an offensive play over 18 yards.  Meanwhile Arkansas under rated defense just got done holding Alabama to 227 yards.

Georgia's defense has been the story along with the running game, but when you look at it Georgia's defense has faced all of the weak teams in the SEC when it comes to offense.  They've faced only 1 team all year ranked in the top 50 in yards per play offense and they lost on the road to them 38-35 to South Carolina, a team that is not as good as Arkansas.  The other teams ranked 89th, 113th, 116th, 98th, and 97th in yards per play offense so I'm thinking this Georgia defense is not as good as they looked last week they almost certainly can not expect Arkansas to turnt he ball over 5 times.  Arkansas arguably is the first balanced offense that Georgia has faced all year.  Yes, Arkansas will run the ball 62% of the time and try to shorten the game, but Brandon Allen is healthy and has 10 TD and just 2 interceptions and they utilize their TE's who very hard to guard very well.  IF Georgia's schedule was based off last year's team then we'd be telling a different story, but all three big games - Clemson, MIssouri, and South Carolina look like completely different teams.

The SEC West is undefeated against the SEC East.  Arkansas defense that has struggled has faced 5 top 60 offenses and 4 in the top 30, 3 int he top 15.  Now Georgia is a one dimensional offense and Arkansas just got done shutting down Alabama's running game.  Todd Gurley is looking like he'll play and that has pushed this line up to +4 in some places and I couldn't help but jump on it as I think Arkansas is poised to win this game outright.  Georgia isn't as good and Arkansas continues to be under rated.  Look for the running game to keep it going while they convert third downs and keep the chains moving while Korliss Marshall makes plays in special teams to set up their first win in their last 16 tries in the SEC.

Wake Forest +6 3.3* early bird play

Syracuse has not had a true road game in over a month and Wake Forest is off a bye.  Syracuse is now without their QB Terrel Hunt and will start a QB with even less experience than Wake Forest's starter.  Wake Forest's defense is enough to completely overwhelm the Syracuse offense that has struggled.  They held Syracuse on the road to 13 points last year, but their offense put up a goose egg.  Things could be different this year despite Syracuse's defense being very good again, because of the bye and the fact that Syracuse pass defense has allowed 76% completion over their last 3 games.  Look for Wake to pull out all the stops to get a win here.  Both teams have had red zone issues scoring TD's at just 39% of their attempts while the defenses have been solid, but Wake's red zone defense has been better at 43% to Syracuse 54%.  Wake allowed Louisville and Florida State to go 3-7 in the red zone for TD% and they did that on the road.  Syracuse was home in both of those games and allowed the two to go 7-9.  

There is just too much value with the home dog here despite their struggling offense I think JOhn Wolford will be able to put up some points involving WR EJ Scott and TE Sam Serigne as Syracuse has allowed 10 passing TD's over the last 4 games.  I also expect Wake to have the advantage on special teams as they are 8-8 on field goals Syracuse is 10-14.  Their punt coverage is also better allowing 7.13 yards per return while Syracuse has given up a TD already and 13.4 yards.  Wake also has a TD return this year out of their punt unit while Syracuse does not.

Oregon State +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

I have been all over this Utah team for years and I know them and their coaching staff very well.  So far this season I have predicted in my analysis Utah +405 ML at UCLA 2 weeks ago and I also predicted Washington State +425 at Utah for the win.  Utah is now ranked inside the top 25 and I won't play them as a road favorite.  As good as they are on defense they are a flawed team.  How many #1 pass rush teams who are #1 in sack % and #1 in sacks are giving up 43% conversions on third down?  Utah's front 7 is built on stopping the run and forcing teams into third and long and they've done a good job this year.  They have only faced one team ranked inside the top 87 in pass protection and that was Washington State who beat them in their own building.

Oregon State is just a bit more balanced than Washington State, but they have a veteran QB built on pass first mentality with very capable running backs averaging over 5 yards per carry.  Utah's defense is going to be tired by the end of this game and I wouldn't be surprised to see Oregon State take this game outright.  Their offensive line is still missing their best player, but this team has been tested facing 3 teams inside the top 60 in pass rush.  USC was ranked 94th but we all know they are better than that.  Oregon State lost by 25 at USC, but that was on the road and without their top WR target who will be back today for QB Sean Mannion.  Oregon State's defense has just as many strengths as Utah and Utah's offense is 95th in yards per play on offense.  They are not announcing their starting QB, but Oregon State has a defense that can plan for both led by 3 senior linebackers in the middle.

UL-Lafayette +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

I'll take the Rajin Cajuns here as our POD catching 3 points on the road.  First of all I think this team is better prepared for this game they got essentially a bye after their game against Boise STate as they had to play GA STate as a 17 point favorite at home and nearly lost, but again this is the same team that at home against LA Tech was a 16 point favorite and lose by 28.  Public is down on them and so is Vegas yet they still have 18 returning starters compared with Texas State's 12 (4 on defense) and Texas State lost 24-48 and were outgained by nearly 400 yards in that game.  I will take the dog in that scenario especially when you look at the fact that Lafayette has played Boise and Ole MIss while Texas State has the weakest strength of schedule in the country.

Texas State has played nobody in the top 90 in rushing offense or defense so their numbers look pretty good on offense with a 5.60 ypc and a QB rating over 150, but a lot of the rushing yardage came against Idaho who is ranked 124th vs. the run.  Texas State has only faced 2 teams who have a top 50 ranked rushing or passing offense (Illinois and Navy) and lost to both.  At lease UL Lafayette can run the ball and even did so against Ole Miss.  Terrance Broadway has had a terrible start, but he tossed 4 TD 0 INT in this match up last year and should have plenty of confidence coming into this game.  At the end of the day I just think the wrong team is favored based on public perception. 

USC -2.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

Arizona is a top 15 team nationally and undefeated off a big win at Oregon as a 3+ TD favorite.  Now they go back home and they are under dogs against a team with 2 losses?  Well that's because USC is just a better team and I expect them to win and cover in this game.  Arizona beat Oregon last year as a +20.5 favorite and proceeded to lose the next week 21-58.  Oregon is not the top tier team we thought they were and haven't been the same since Chip Kelly went to the NFL.

First of all Arizona off this big win is due for a hang over or a let down whatever you want to call it.  Their offense is led by two freshmen and in QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson who probably think college football and winning is easy.  I think they are in for a rude awakening against a pissed off USC team that played well but lost on a hail mary at home.  When you look at Arizona's results and schedule they haven't faced a top defense especially in pass defense.  USC is 32nd in opponent QB rating, but Arizona has faced 86th, 109th, 55th, 100th, and 93rd so I'm not surprised Solomon has enjoyed so much success.  USC is also tough against the run despite their rank.  Boston College ran all over them and I'm going to throw that game out when you consider they just got done holding their last two opponents well under their season averages including Arizona State who is still ranked 13th in ypc despite rushing for under 2 yards per carry vs. USC's defense.

Arizona will have a tough time with Cody Kessler who is completing 69.5% of his pass without any interceptions.  He also has Javorious Allen who is averaging over 5 yards per carry and rushed for over 150 vs. a pretty good Stanford defense.  Arizona's pass defense is not good allowing a 151 QB rating and they have given up a higher QB rating to all 4 of their 5 opponents.  Oregon had a 170 QB rating but on the season average over 190.  Overall I just think USC is too good in their pass defense and they seemed to fix the issues in their run defense and we get them at a true bargain.  Before last week this spread probably would have been 5.5 or 6 point favorites.  USC has allowed just 25% conversions on third down and 46% TD's in the red zone and are +7 in turnover margin with 0 turnovers in their last 4 games.  Arizona is just not a good red zone team right now 52% TD percentage on offense and 67% on defense.  

TX A&M -2 4.4* SEC GOW

Ole Miss just got done with arguably their biggest win in program history.  Shit.. we even saw their QB Bo Wallace being carried off the field and the goal posts being ripped down.  Talk about going back to old times.  I don't see this team re-grouping against an A&M team that has more offense than this Ole Miss defense has seen all year and they have to face it on the road.  Even the Ole Miss run defense showed holes against Alabama allowing nearly double their season ypc allowed.  Bo Wallace simply can't carry this team on the road in my opinion.  Maybe he can do it against Vanderbilt on the road right now but not against A&M where he will be required to score in the 30's.  I just don't like how they match up here.. 

For one thing A&M's stock is down and they are looking for redemption right now and what better way then to face a team that just beat Bama.  A&M is humbled right now and they have a good coach and are 6-2 ATS following a SU loss so I like them here especially when you look at what goes on up front.  A&M is better at pressuring the QB and protecting the QB ranking top 20 in both.  Ole Miss front is nasty, but on the road that should be a different story against a QB that can run and throw and if it weren't for 9 drops by his receivers last week we could be seeing A&M undefeated and listed as a 6 point favorite.  Ole MIss is ranked 82nd in sack % while Kenny Hill has been sacked

Penn St +1 3.3* Big10 GOW

On paper this almost looks to obvious with how poor Michigan looks right now.  Listen Brady Hoke is on his way out and he knows it.  I don't see him fighting for his job nor do I see the players fighting for him.  Michigan is getting some money here for their play at home under the lights, but I don't see it.  Penn State has the far superior coach in James Franklin and he has an extra week to prepare coming off a loss.  

Penn State's loss was an ugly one at the time vs. Northwestern by double digits, but since Northwestern has defeated Wisconsin as well.  There is no doubt Christina Hackenberg has regressed, but playing Michigan's shaky pass defense should help.  Once again it all starts up front and Michigan can't get to the QB while they also can't protect their QB.  Penn State is #1 in run defense and they're pretty solid vs. the pass too ranking 35th in sack %.  James Franklin as a head coach is a pretty damn good one off byes.  With Vanderbilt the last 3 years he was  5-2 SU & ATS, 5-0 ATS the last two years including 3x as an under dog.  His two losses were against Alabama on the road and his first bowl game against Cincinnati in his first year as a coach.

Miss St +3 2.2* play

MIss State won a huge game against A&M last week, but this game is bigger.  Auburn played Kansas State on the road and should have lost in my opinion and I think Miss State is just a better version of that.  You could argue that Miss State rushing offense and defense has been better this year, but on paper it's about the same so since both teams rely on this and the fact that MIss State's QB Dak Prescott has a QB rating 30 points higher than Nick Marshall I feel comfortable with the home dog.

Both teams have the same amount of players returning and Miss State nearly beat Auburn on the road.  First of all they basically out played them in their own building with Prescott and the running game rushing for 1.7ypc more than Auburn.  Prescott rushed for 133 while Marshall just 22 on 11 carries.  Miss State is home now and Auburn is just a bit over hyped in my opinion. 

UNC +17 3.3* PLAY / UNC +575 0.5* BONUS

I'm not at all impressed with Notre Dame yet they are ranked in the top 10 after defeating a Stanford team that to be honest is just not that good as we all know by now.  Notre Dame has looked ugly in their last 2 games and now they face a desperate UNC team that was supposed to be ranked before the season started.  I think this is a dangerous game, because this is arguably the best offense that Notre Dame has faced and they are clearly looking ahead to their showdown against Florida State.

UNC has QB Marquise Williams who almost ran for over 100 yards against a very good Virginia Tech defense and he's been passing well to his WR Davis and converting 76% of his red zone opportunities into TD's.  He had 4 TD passes against Clemson and put up 35 points against one of the best front 7's in the nation.  I believe Notre Dame's defense which has been touted as a top 10 unit is over rated based on the offenses they have faced.  Syracuse ranked 41st in yards per play is the top offense they have faced to date and they are ranked 67th in strength of schedule.  I think UNC will stay in this game and have the ball late with a chance to win or take the game to OT.

TCU +8 3.3* BIG12 GOW[/b]

TCU is off a big win against Oklahoma, but they have a veteran group with a very good coach that expected to beat Oklahoma.  Now they face a Baylor team that I think is over rated.  First of all Baylor had to replace 3 guys on the offensive line form last year and are only returning 12 starters overall.  TCU has much more coming back and they proved last year they can beat Baylor.  TCU had 3 turnovers and still lost by just 3 points at home as a 2 TD under dog.  Baylor is still putting up points, but this year's version is far less explosive.  Texas shared the recipe holding Petty to 7-22 for 111 yards and he was only 19-38 last year.

TCU's defense will keep them in this game they are top 5 in sack % and opp QB rating and ranked in top 10 in run defense.  Ironically their offense is ranked ahead of Baylor ranking 22nd in yards per play.  Baylor's defense has also been on par looking great, but I believe they are a notch below TCU from last year's stats and this year's stats.  When you look at the offenses they have played too it is no surprise as they have faced 113th, 106th, FCS foe, and Buffalo (38th) in yards per play offense.  TCU has proven this year against top offensive talent that their defense is real holding Trevor Knight to 14/35 1TD and 2 INT last week.  This is a huge game for both teams for recruiting and I expect a close game throughout with TCU having a chance to win or hold onto the win in the end.

Iowa -3 3.3* play[/b]

This is a revenge game for Iowa who held Indiana to 2.2 ypc on the road last year.  Iowa is also off a bye and will play an Indiana team that has looked as bad as they have looked good this year.  They won at MIssouri, but lost at a Bowling Green team that is ranked at the bottom of the nation in offense and defense.  They are not getting the consistent play from their QB Nate Sudfield who has just a 125 QB rating and relying on their star RB Tevin Coleman too much.  Iowa sports a solid rushing defense that can game plan and dominate a game with 2 weeks to prepare for a one dimensional attack and I think that's exactly what they will do.

Iowa has already faced a pair of top 50 rushing teams on the road and won and coincidently neither of those teams had a passing game so it should be more of the same on Saturday.  I also expect Iowa to get their running game going and to find some balance in the passing game against Indiana's defense that is very young and talented, but playing very inconsistent.  At the end of the day we are backing a team off a bye, at home, vs inconsistent team with holes on both sides of the ball and the extra preparation time should benefit and allow them to win this game by a TD.

MTSU +24.5 2.2* PLAY

Marshall is getting a lot of hype for the second year in a row, but they have the 99th ranked strength of schedule and I don't see any reason for them to be this big of favorites when you consider MTU has been extremely competitive and beat Marshall at home last year as a double digit dog.  Both of their losses on the road came by less than this margin and agaisnt two very good teams in Memphis and Minnesota.  MTSU runs the ball first 58% the time and Austin Grammer leads the conference completing 71% of his throws so the clock should be moving a lot.  MTU has the best offense that Marshall has faced so far this year and I expect it to be a battle for 3 quarters at least before Marshall takes the game over and wins by 10 in the 4th.

WASHINGTON ST +17 4.4* NCAAF POD

BYU/UCF U45 4.4* NCAAF POD I don't see any value here on the home team despite covering on them last week as one of my POD's against Houston. Their offense looked awful and they are still ranked 119th in yards per play on the season. BYU has a solid defense ranked 36th in yards per play and they will rely heavily on their defense to carry them here since they are now without their star QB. If anything there is a ton of value on BYU here after they lost as a -21 favorite and lost their star QB Taysome Hill.. I can't back a team though starting a new QB on the road on short rest against a UCF defense that will also be pretty geared up at home and is very talented. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 Thursday games, but I also like that both teams are top 40 in rushing play %. A lot of running and a lot of clock moving with both teams relying on their solid defense which gets better when opponents get into the red zone. Both teams have been very good on defense in the red zone with UCF allowing just 28% TD's in the red zone compared with BYU at 52%. I think this sets up nicely for the under as we see a totally different BYU offense.

UTAH +13.5 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD + UTAH +405 1* ML

UCLA got a huge win on national television to stay undefeated, but they actually looked like everyone thought they would all seasonw inning 62-27 and suddenly they are ranked #8 in the country.  I'm still not buying this team at all.  I was all over Arizona State last week because I thought they had more talent on defense and I was completely wrong this team is 113th in yards / play allowed and 70th in sack %.  UCLA struggled in all 3 of their other games because Memphis, Virginia, and Texas are all in the top 25 in sack %.  Well that plays right into Utah's hands as they are ranked 5th in sacks and 18th in sack %.  Better yet they get to the QB with their front 4 and don't need to blitz as the defensive line has 15 of the 18 sacks.

What I like about Utah is the fact that they lost at home as a double digit favorite while UCLA exploded on national TV so no doubt we have value on this line.  Washington State went into Utah as 13 point favorite and won which I predicted and cashed on at +425.  I'm predicting the same thing here. The match up against Wash State was just a bad bad match up for Utah whose defense is built to stop the run and get a pass rush, but Wash State relies on quick passes so a pass rush is almost nearly impossible.  UCLA is ranked 109th in protecting the QB and it's been their kryptonite all year long. I don't expect that to change in one week after one game.  UTah's Nate Orchad has proven he's a dominant pass rusher and should be giving Brent Hundley plenty of pressure.

Utah gave UCLA all they could handle at home last year, but Tyler Wilson turned the ball over 6 times.  It it wasn't for that this team would have beaten UCLA and Stanford at home.  One year later this team is deeper and better and Tyler Wilson has yet to throw an interception and the team is +5 in turnover margin.  Dres Anderson is a real threat at WR and Utah has balance with Devontae Booker carrying the ball.  Special teams has also been great with Kaelin Clay the fastest player on the field already taking back 4 TD's in punt and kick off returns and should be a huge factor on Saturday night, but Utah's solid front 7 on defense against UCLA's struggling offensive line should be the story here and the reason why we cash our ticket.

Pittsburgh +5 3.3* ACC GOW

There has to be value in this line after Pitt lost as a -21 point favorite to Akron a week ago.  This team was just beat up after the game against Iowa and I see them bouncing back this week.  Virginia is 5-0 ATS on the year and that just can't hold up especially since Pitt is 0 for their last 3 ATS.  If you just look at yards and yards allowed Pitt wins in all categories so I see a bit of value here although Pitt has their work cut out for them against Virginia's defense.  VA has been dominant, but they haven't faced a running back like James Conner.  Iowa was ranked 28th in run defense and Conner was able to exploit them and rush for over 150 yards.

Despite what you may hear from the media Pittsburgh does have weapons to keep a defense honest with Tyler Boyd, who is arguably the best WR in the ACC.  He had 7 rec for 111 yards in last year's meeting.  Pittsburgh's defense is the main reason I think they cover this spread they have not allowed teams to move the ball and they don't spend a lot of time on the field which shoudln't change against a VA offense that's 80th in the nation in yards per play.  Pitt is also 22-7 ATS in their last 29 following a SU loss and they'll want to redeem themselves early here. 

Texas A&M +3 -115 buy 1/2 4.5* SEC GOW

The Aggies win last week was pretty impressive and they are #3 in our power rankings with the 10th toughest schedule to date.  Miss State is ranked #9, but their power rank is #63 for strength of schedule.  They won at LSU a team that's just not the same as previous years and then they played teams ranked 101st, 107th, and 123rd and all of a sudden this team is ranked #12 all because of a road win at LSU.  They are off a bye, but everyone is telling them how great they are and crowning them as a top 5 team if they beat the Aggies as small favorites.  I personally think this line is off despite taking Arkansas last week.  Arkansas is drawing a lot of comparisons to MIss State because of their power run game, but Arkansas is a much different and a more challenging match up for the Aggies.

MIss State does not dominate time of possession like Arkansas does - ranked 6th in the country.  Miss State is just 62nd.  The biggest difference is Arkansas pressure defense they play extremely aggressive and press the receivers.  In the end A&M made adjustments and it hurt Arkansas, but Miss State likes to play off the receivers like South Carolina and I think Kenny Hill will have a field day.  He's got some of the best receivers in the game who are elite in quick pass, yards after catch.  Malcome Kennedy, Josh Reynolds and Edward Pope are all top 10 in receiving in the SEC. These are things LSU simply can't do on offense yet LSU still put up 341 yards passing.  UAB put 435 yards passing up on Miss State which is nearly 200 more than their season average.  I just think this is a terrible match up for Miss State and their head coach Dan Mullen has yet to prove he can come off a bye week and be better prepared.  They lost at home to LSU 26-59 last year and 16-34 at South Carolina on extra rest.  Miss St also was able to get to LSU who can't protect their QB ranked 107th in pass protection, but again A&M does not have that issue ranked 7th in pass protection.

I think Dak Prescott is special and I think he'll move the ball quite a bit on the Aggies, but the red zone is where this game changes.  A&M can score in the red zone and they can get stops in the red zone.  On the year they are simply a bend but don't break defense allowing just 33% 3rd down conversions and 33.3% red zone TD percentage.  This will be the reason they win the game because Miss State against for the most part awful competition are only converting 40% of their third downs and 60% red zone appearances into TD's. 

***BONUS***Florida +8.5 /Ohio St -2 4.4* Teaser Of the Week

Florida is off the bye week here and are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to Tennessee.  Tennessee is over valued here after going into Athens and nearly pulling off a huge upset as a 19 point dog losing 32-35.  Florida looked like last year's Florida vs. Alabama, but they had a bye week to prepare and have several things going for them.  For one they are still a team that relies on their defense that outside of Alabama has shown they can dominate and Tennessee's offense is ranked 101st in yards per play so I don't see them outscoring Florida by over a TD when Florida is off a bye especially when you take a look at where Tennessee's weakness is on defense.  TN is 72nd run defense and they have to defend Florida's attack that has been pretty good with Jeff Driskel back in the mix.  Driskel can actually pass and run and he's joined by Matt Jones who is averaging over 5 yards per carry.

Ohio State on the other hand gets to face a Maryland team getting all kinds of credit after their big win on the road against Indiana as an under dog.  They are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after an ATS win and I think Ohio State is out to prove they don't belong in this conference.  Ohio State offense is balanced and getting better by the week.  JT Barrett is a better passer than Braxton Miller and has converted 72% of his passes or more in 3 of his 4 games and has gone back to back with 300+ yards.  They are 5th in QB rating and 38th in yards per carry.  Maryland at times has shown they can be good on defense, but they have also shown they can be beat by teams who are very good at doing one thing.  Syracuse ran for over 350 yards and 7.3 ypc, and West Virginia threw for over 500 yards.  Ohio State's 710 yard performance on Cinci last week was impressive and they have a good coaching staff.  I think RB Ezekiel Elliot is in for a big game while Ohio State's defense has been more dominant than what the public perception is.  Maryland also could be without their QB CJ Brown who handles the majority of the offense leading the team in rushing attempts.  Even if he plays he shouldn't be 100% which could be a major issue against this defense.

Fresno State -3 3.3* bonus

Fresno State has not looked good, but they faced USC, Nebraska and Utah to start the season.  Now they get their second game in the Mountain West and it's against San Diego State who realistically has not faced anyone when you consider how poorly Oregon State and UNC have looked.  Fresno State's pass defense has been the main issue allowing 17 TD's to just 1 INT, but when you face the teams of that quality you are going to have issues.  They have also faced two top 10 rushing attacks along the way so this defense can only trend upwards.  On Friday night they get a one dimensional team in San Diego State.  San Diego State has just 2 TD passes and 6 interceptions and now they'll start a true freshmen on the road in Nick Bawden on a short week.  Fresno has an extra day to prepare because they played last Friday.  Fresno is stronger in the front 7 than they have shown and San Diego State is facing a 3-4 defense for the first time all year.  Fresno has 4 returning LB's and an NFL caliber NT in Tyeler Davison.

Fresno's offense will give San Diego State's defense some issue with their tempo.  San Diego State was holding up against UNC and then UNC picked up the tempo and created havoc.  Fresno will do it all game and it's going to be something San Diego State can't prepare for on the short week with a young defense.  San Diego State's strengths are stopping the run and running the ball which transition well on the road, but the offenses they have faced are NAU, 90th ranked rushing offense followed by 96, and 93.  The defenses they have faced are NAU, 122nd, 57th, and 86th.  The value resides with Fresno in this game and I"ll take the FG.

Syracuse +3 4.4* NCAAF POD

This is a dangerous game for Louisville and I'm not so sure they can win or even should be favored so I'll take the FG with the home dog in the Carrier Dome where they are extremely dangerous.  This year has been odd for Louisville in a bad way as their defense was supposed to struggle while the offense was great under Bobby Petrino, but it's been opposite and a lot has to do with the offenses they have faced in my opinion.  Louisville is in fact ranked #2 in run defense, but they have not faced a top 60 unit and have faced an FCS school + 128th ranked run offense and 112th.  No doubt those numbers are a bit skewed.  Here comes Syracuse ranked #10 with multiple options in their running game including an elite running QB in Terrel Hunt.  Hunt has struggled to pass, but back at home against an over rated Louisville defense should change.  Syracuses losses have been against some very good teams in Notre Dame and Maryland, who is shocking many people already.  

Syracuse defense also has the edge here in my opinion.  Louisville is very uncertain at QB and they face Syracuse's 17th ranked run defense, but that's not what will get them the win.  Their front 7 is aggressive as any and they'll get to the QB particularly at home.  They forced Notre Dame into 5 turnovers last week on a neutral field and this week their 22nd ranked sack % team gets to face Louisville who is having all sorts of issues in the pocket ranking 118th in pass protection.  To make matters worse for Louisvlle Syracuse has bene dominant in the red zone allowing just 38% TD's.  While Lousivlle has also gotten to the QB it's been against some poor protection units and Syracuse is ranked 3rd in sacks allowed which is extremely impressive when you figure they have a mobile QB. 

UCF +3.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

I don't know who drove this line up to 3.5 points, but I'm thanking them for it.  Essentially both teams come off a bye week here and should be fresh for their conference game.  Although UCF may have a bit more time to prepare here considering they had Bethune Cookman on 9/20.  Either way I expect a competitive game between two teams who are solid on defense and struggling to find an identity on offense, but I think UCF is still the better team with the better coach.  UCF is ranked higher in our power rankings 77th to 84th, and strength of schedule 32nd vs. 71st.

Houston's wins have come when they can run the ball and despite only doing that roughly 38% of the time.  However, they ran the ball against two poor teams in Grambling and UNLV.  Against BYU and UTSA they ran for a combined -17 yards.  UCF is giving up 2.9 ypc and they have played big opponents like Missouri and Penn State.  They have an excellent group of linebackers led by Terrance Plummer who has been in the media this week responding to Houston's WR's comments.  Plummer is a great leader who plays with emotion and passion and that's the type of team I like to back as an under dog.  Houston's WR Deontay Greenberry is a good player, but he made a dumb comment stating "they weren't that good last year....don't expect a close game this year."  I have no idea why he feels that way when you consider how Houston has played this year against competitive opponents, but UCF HC George O'Leary state "one of my players said that he'd be watching the game on TV."  It just goes to show you where both teams are.  UCF is clearly more mature and has a better coach and the stats back it up.

Houston passes 61.5% of hte time and they are not very good at ranked 114th in pass efficiency.  We broke down the struggles with the running game so for me the game for Houston relies on O'Korn.  He was supposed to make a big step forward in his second year and he hasn't completing just 52% of his passes while throwing 6 interceptions and 6 TD's.  I don't see that changing here against UCF which has a seasoned secondary.  Missouri's Matty Mauk only had 144 yards passing on them on 14/24 and he had the running game working to create balance.  Don't expect O'Korn to have the same advantages here tonight.

Central Florida's defense will keep them in the game while the offense I think will gain it's confidence for the first time this season against a decent opponent.  UCF is ranked nearly dead last in ypc but they have faced some very good defenses including Penn State ranked 3rd v.s the run.  Houston's defense just gave up 5 rushing TD's and 500 yards in their last 2 games combined against BYU and UNLV.  I can see BYU rushing well, but UNLV is ranked 90th in yards per rush and they put up 4.36 average and 170 yards.  UCF has the threat of their QB taking off and I think he will take a few plays out of BYU's play book for some key first downs. 

I would feel comfortable taking UCF on the money line if you have to.. This team could easily be 2-1, but their defense has struggled on third down defense, but playing Houston should help as they have only been able to convert 33% of their third downs and we mentioned all the struggles they have had running and throwing the ball. 

SYRACUSE +10 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD

Notre Dame is once again getting media attention which is nothing new for this program but ranked number eight in the country is a bit overboard. Nearly 65% of the public is backing Notre Dame here will play on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium. Both teams have experience playing in this stadium in the pinstripe bowl.

I like Syracuse a lot here as they just come off a loss against Maryland which gives us a little bit of value in the line. The loss against Maryland was also misleading and lost by 14 but pay average 7.3 yards per carry and outgained Maryland by 220 yards. This offense is very good and can expose Notre Dame as the Irish have yet to face a truly mobile quarterback. Terrel Hunt fits the part for Syracuse and he has a running back and Gulley who is averaging 7.84 yards per carry.  They are both playing behind in offense of wine that is extremely experienced with five seniors.

Notre Dame has looked great but against who?  We all saw how Michigan looked at home against Utah as favorites. That makes Notre Dame's victory against them a little less impressive. This is also Notre Dame's first game away from home and while their run defense has allowed less than 3 yards per carry to have not faced a running game like this. Notre Dame's offense is also misleading in my opinion because they lack multiple go to guys can easily put together a game plan to keep this offense in check. It's also a bad sign when your head coach is looking to shake up the offense of line during your bye week. Which is exactly what Brian Kelly has been doing and that offense of line will be in for a tough test against Syracuse which is very good at stopping the run.

Wash St +14 3.3* PAC12 GOW / Wash St +425 0.5* bonus
Washington State here comes into this game giving Oregon all they could have, but most people I feel like are not aware.  What's more in the spotlight is how Utah went on the road and put a beat down on Michigan, but looking at the stat line they really did not dominate that game. This line has jumped from 10 to 14 and I'll take that as I think Utah is in a bad match up here.  Utah was outgained by 22 yards last week and I just feel like the public is riding them, but Utah is looking ahead to UCLA knowing they are double digit favorites and expected to win.

I have backed Utah many times and have won.  I like defensive teams, but this defense is built on stopping the run and that's not at all what Washington State does.  Last year they put up 578 yards on Utah and this QB they have Halliday is pretty good as he already has 16 TD's.  I also like Utah's QB Wilson, but far too often does he make the big mistake.  Either way this game should go back and forth and I wouldn't be surprised to see Washington State have a chance to win it on their last drive which is why I'm going to sprinkle a little on the money line.

DUKE +7 3.3* PLAY[/B]

Miami struggled big-time with Nebraska's read option we could go and Duke's offense will run something very similar. Dick's offense I believe is a bit more experienced and even a little bit better than Nebraska especially at quarterback with Anthony Boone a senior returning as he faces off against Miami's freshman QB. Dick's offense has a ton of talent from running back to wide receiver to the offense of line and they are well coached.

On paper Miami should dominate running the ball against this Duke team but they've had all sorts of issues without the balance of a passing game. Duke Johnson has great numbers is far as yards per carry go but he has not topped 100 yards yet on the season and Miami ranks 92nd in the country in yards per carry on offense. Theeir new quarterback Brad Kaaya has already thrown seven interceptions. Miami's only converting 26% of their third-downs in those struggles have also carried over into their red zone offense. Duke has three senior linebackers returning and they've been solid in these areas which give them a major advantage in this matchup.

The biggest reason why I'm backing tubes here is the fact that we are getting them at a key number of +7. But they have played a cleaner season with +5 in the turnover margin while Miami has struggled big-time. Duke also features a top 25 special teams unit while Miami has already allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown take Duke and the points. 

MISSOURI +5 3.3* PLAY

Missouri just lost two in Indiana's user's team out of the Big Ten last week as a double-digit favorite. I think that gives us plenty of value this week as Missouri now goes on the road to face a very good South Carolina teen that is well coached. However all back the underdog coming off a big loss to rebound here as I think they match up extremely well with South Carolina.

South Carolina has really struggled they can't get a pass rush as they are ranked 110 in the country in sac percentage. They are also rank 110th in opposing QB rating on the season as well. Now they are facing very good quarterbacks this early in the season but Maddie Mauk is no slouch that's for sure. South Carolina also played poorly on defense when facing a terrible offense. Vanderbilt is ranked 100 in yards per play this year yet South Carolina allowed them to have nearly 7 yards per play in their last game which is almost 3 yards more than they've been averaging on the season. South Carolina is also allowing 52% conversions on third down and they are allowing 5.27 yards per carry in run defense.

Missouri is a balanced attack nearly 50% rushes 50% passes. They also have a lot on the line in this game and it's certainly a revenge came after they lost to South Carolina last year in dramatic fashion at home. Missouri is a well coached team that is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 following in ATS loss. I don't think South Carolina's offense is good enough to score and cover the spread even though Dylan Thompson has looked very good this far in the season.

[b]NC ST +18.5 3.3* PLAY[/b]

Florida State was overrated to start the year they were overrated after their first game second gain and 13. Part of it is the sophomore slump after dominating 2013 in winning the national championship. This is another dangerous game Florida State and they have struggled playing here losing five of their last seven. Winston will return after last week's suspension and Florida State should cruise to victory right?

NC State had basically up by last week and will be well prepared for what is their game of the year arguably the biggest game at home in their history. That only are they getting the number one ranked team in their own building for the first time ever they also get to face the Heisman Trophy winner for the first time ever at home and as we all know Florida State are the reigning national champions.

NC State's defense definitely has a chip on his shoulder in this game after allowing 35 points in 11 minutes in Florida State's Stadium last year. The key to this game is to get pressure on Winston and Florida State's offense of lines having a hard time blocking for him ranked 100 in pass protection.

Florida State's offense has definitely not been the same in 2014 and I do expect them to win this game but I think they come into this game often emotional win in overtime last week without Winston and they will be a little slow in the beginning. That should leave plenty opportunity for NC state to cover this widespread at home.

Middle Tenn +130 4* NCAAF POD

MTSU has plenty of value here coming into the game as the forgotten team in the C-USA battle.  MTSU is capable of moving the ball on this Old Dominion defense that should get pushed around quite a bit tonight and a rough time dealing with QB Austin Grammer and their 3 running backs.  Grammer will run it as well which will give Old Dominion a different offense to prepare for.  Old Dominion is also riding high off a victory on the road against the defending champions in Rice so a let down is very possible here.

The schedules just don't compare as MTSU has faced a solid Memphis team which nearly beat UCLA on the road, Minnesota out of the Big Ten on the road and a very good Western Kentucky team.  Old Dominion is pretty one dimensional in my opinion with the passing game and Taylor Heinickie and every week there is more tape on him to help prepare.  Bottom line against tougher competition MIddle Tenn has played better where it counts which is on 3rd downs and in the red zone.  Old Dominion's defense can't get off the field allowing 50% conversions and 76% TD's in the red zone.  Compare that with Middle Tennessee's 42% defense (38% on the road) and 43% TD rate in the red zone on defense and you have a significant advantage.  This is a big conference game and I'll lean on experience as Old Dominion suffers a let down here after their big victory over Rice. 

Arizona State +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

This line is about right with Arizona State's QB Taylor Kelly missing the game and a lot of unknowns.  However, I feel confident in Arizona State at home despite their defense not being a top tier unit.  They lost 8 starters from a year ago, but these guys playing at home with a  chip on their shoulder knowing they are the supposed weakest unit will be interesting to see.  They actually get a good match up here in my opinion going against UCLA.  UCLA has not been good on offense despite having an NFL QB in Brett Hundley who is not 100% healthy thanks to the atrocious play of his offensive line and no real game changers on offense.  UCLA is 72nd in yards per play and 115th in sack % allowed. Arizona State always has an aggressive front with athletes and they may be inexperienced, but I'm betting on them coming up big tonight in this marquee match up.  They will see a balanced offense, but neither the passing or the running game of UCLA scares me right now.

Arizona State offense has been superb ranking 3rd in yards per play, but they have not played anyone.  They have had 12 days to prepare and with a new QB in Mike Bercovici and I think they will be able to move the ball.  UCLA has big names that are over hyped this unit is 111th in sack % and they can't pin their ears back against Arizona State's big OL because the running game is a real threat with DJ Foster who is averaging 9.44 yards per carry.  I don't see how UCLA will keep Arizona State from moving the ball and their play up front is simply not good enough to be a road favorite.  They can't get to the QB and they can't protect their QB and they're a road favorite?  I'll take the points enjoy!

West Virginia +8 3.3* play
West Virginia has one of the bigger opportunities of this weekend getting the chance to knock off a top 10 football team in their own building. This was a close match up last year as Oklahoma defeated West Virginia 16–7.  It was actually a very sloppy game as both teams turn the ball over four times. West Virginia however his home in this game and they return more starters compared with Oklahoma.

This is a very dangerous game for Oklahoma West Virginia quarterback Clint Trickett has been playing out of his mind completing 75% of his passes with seven touchdowns and one interception. He put 365 yards up with a touchdown against Alabama and threw for 511 yards last week against Maryland along with four touchdowns.  Oklahoma secondary can be beat but they usually come up with a big place. However truck it has been protecting the ball completing 75% of his passes and wide receiver Kevin White has looked like the real deal.

Oklahoma's offense has looked average at best besides the running game but again a one dimensional offense going on the road is a risk to bed. I don't think Oklahoma's was very impressive against Tennessee although they cover the spread due to a pick six late in the game. 

Florida Atlantic +4 4.4* play
Florida Atlantic started the year into challenging road games against Nebraska and then against Alabama. I think that's prepared them for the rest of the season and they clearly showed that in a blowout win over Tulsa last week.  While I have a lot of respect for coach Craig Brohl of Wyoming and his 24 game win streak that ended last week I think he faces a long up hill battle the rest of the season.  This team looked over mashed at certain points in their Air Force game that they won at the end of the game.

Florida Atlantic at the end of the day just has too much speed you can run multiple types of offenses hurry up no huddle slow it down. It will be just too much and too frustrating for this defense that is just not very good.  QB Jacquez Johnson looked sharp and his ability to pass and throw is going to be a major issue for this Wyoming defense that left guys open all day against Air Force in their last home game.  The difference will be Florida Atlantic's big play ability.  FAU has won 5 of their last 7 games and people forget this Wyoming team is completely different with just 5 returning starters on offense.  Their QB can also be easily rattled even at home.

Utah +4 3.3* play
Utah's off a bye week with plenty of time to prepare for Michigan. I think this is just the worst possible match up Michigan could get this week. They've been great under their head coach at home but it's about to get ugly.  Kyle Whittingham has sends a lot of players to the NFL from his defensive lines.  There are new faces but I think it will be seen as usual. This is a team that lead the pack 12 in sacks last year and they have another strong returning defense of line along with a Miami transfer Gionni Paul who could put this defense over the top.  This is a team that is built on the front seven and pressuring the quarterback and that's exactly what Michigan's weaknesses right now.  Even if Devin Funchess plays at WR he will not be the usual mismatch and he will not be the best receiver in this match up.  That belongs to Dres Anderson from the Utes.

Even if Michigan's offense can get going a little bit with running the ball in getting some play action pass is completed I just don't think it will be enough. That's because Utah's offense has plenty of firepower especially with quarterback Travis Wilson leading the way.  Will set is very dangerous he's got plenty of weapons including Dres Anderson and Kenneth Scott very talented running backs in Devonte Booker and Bubba Poole.

This game is going to be close to rule out but I'll take the points in this matchup. I think turnovers will this side the game and it's something you Tori had issues with last year but this year Michigan ranks 121st in turnover margin while Utah's been more conservative with the ball especially in the hands of Travis Wilson.

Iowa +7 5.5* NCAAF POD; Iowa +230 1* bonus
Iowa's 2-1 on the season but 0-3 against the spread there's got to be value in this line for sure especially since Pittsburgh beat Boston College on the road and Boston College just beat USC at home.  Also the Big Ten is getting no love from the oddsmakers after the first few weeks of the season and they probably shouldn't care either but this lines of three points in my favor in Pittsburgh is still among one of the youngest teams in the country.  They have 81 underclassmen 53 freshmen and 28 sophomores which is the highest in the country they've started 3-0 but that's about to change on Saturday.

I would just copied at home to Iowa State as a double-digit favorite and they really haven't looked at Creek this year but I'll still take my chances with a touchdown to play with it again it's going to be very competitive. Both teams will play conservative style type a game trying to control Time possession which means for a close game and my.

Pittsburgh runs a very one dimensional offense with 71% of their players being running place right fit in the country. Running back James Connor it looks to be the real deal again one of the nations leading rushers as a sophomore. However no balance no threat of the passing game and that's going to get you be at some point in the season. The matchup against Iowa defense is intriguing considering Iowa is only allowing 2.8 yards per carry Ray 21st in the country. Pittsburgh Pirates had the liberty of going against some bad Russian defenses to start the season.  Iowa's always known for their front seven top gritty players and they have for returning starters from last year on the front for including three seniors and one junior.

For Iowa's offense they are far more capable of what they've shown this year. Jake Rudock has played well 68% of his passes have been completed he's from four touchdowns and one interception. Pit secondary has not been tested to start the season and I think it will be on Saturday at least to the point where we will cover the spread.  It also features to senior running backs they can get the tough yards and I think they just overall have more balance on offense in Pittsburgh does and when you look at both teams I think both defenses are on the same level I will always go with the team with more balance.  Iowas defense has only allowed one red zone touchdown all you all year Pittsburgh has been good in the red zone but again who if they faced.

Iowa is 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 ATS following a SU loss with Kirk Ferentz at the helm at head coach while Pitt is 1-5 ATS in their last 6. 

Connecticut +3 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD
South Florida is 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 home games while Connecticut is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record which is good for a 29-7-2 ATS angle.  Both teams have played 3 straight games at home with their anemic offenses and have gone 1-2 only beating an FCS opponent.  However, Uconn has looked better against stronger competition.

Uconn faced Boise #38 power rating, BYU #24 good for 35th ranked SOS ranking while USF comes in at 82nd facing Maryland #74 and NC State #57.  Uconn will have the best unit on the field on Saturday and that will be their defense.  They just got done shutting down Boise and holding them to 292 yards.  South Florida has a miserable passing offense and Uconn has the ability to shut down a running game.  They held Boise over 150 yards under their season average.  Uconn also likes to pass the ball 60% of the time and that's where South Florida's weakness is ranked 82nd, in yards/attempt, 84th in QB rating, but they also have issues stopping the run ranked 81st.

From a yards perspective Uconn was worse than South Florida but those numbers are skewed a bit.  When we look at both offenses in their 2 games vs. FBS opponents Uconn was actually able to move the ball.  They had 23 first downs vs. BYU who is ranked 24th in defense for yards/play and had 355 yards.  Against Boise they had only 290 but had 18 first downs which was more than Boise State and Boise is ranked 54th on defense for yards/play.  South Florida on the other hand was miserable in their two games.  Against NC State ranked 65th in yds/play defense they had just 8 first downs and 159 yards.  Against Maryland ranked 53rd they had 257 yards and 16 first downs.  I'm going with the better defense and the offense that has shown more life and I'm getting points.  I don't care if this game is on the road Uconn is due for a win against South Florida and I think tonight is the night.

Kansas State +9.5 -105 4.5* NCAAF POD

13 straight covers for Auburn and now they go on the road on a Thursday night early in the season for a very tough challenge.  I can't help but think this line is high from 13 straight covers and the media hype that Auburn gets which is clearly earned.  However, I'm still a bit skeptical about this year's Auburn Tigers and we have not learned anything after their first two games other than we know this team can run the ball.  However, they just ran the ball at home against two below average defenses in Arkansas and San Jose State. The challenge on Thursday night is going on the road to face Bill Snyder's under rated defense.  Snyder has had success in these type of games especially with his defensive scheme.

Snyder will have his defense playing man on the outside and blitzing forcing everything to funnel through the middle of the field.  I'm not saying Auburn won't be effective, because I think they will move the ball fine, but I think Kansas State will get some red zone stops for sure.  Auburn will be tested here a bit and we may finally see the growing pains of losing their stud LT Greg Robinson in the off season and now LG Alex Kozan which are both huge loses.  It also helps Snyder and the Wildcats that Auburn's QB Nick Marshall has yet to show he's improved from last year in the passing game.  This Auburn team is still one dimensional against a sound defense until further notice in my opinion.  Marshall may prove me wrong, but he's also going to prove Bill Snyder wrong if he takes over this game with his arm for all 4 quarters.  I just don't see that happening here.  The Wildcats are also more prepared for this type of offense than most defenses especially compared against Auburn's first two opponents.  For one they face a similar option offense in practice that's geared towards the run and have done so for years.  Secondly, tempo is something Auburn believes in and uses, but in the Big 12 every team seems to run that tempo offense and Kansas State has had plenty of success against it over the years with Snyder at the helm.

One of the biggest reasons I like Kansas State here as a top play is their offense and the Auburn defense.  Auburn has the skill on the front 4 to get after a QB, but the way Kansas State's offense is run I think they are going to have issues containing Jake Waters.  This is a unique offense that will use just about every formation.  Kansas State may run the ball the majority of the time, but they can also pass and they feature a WR that Auburn won't be able to cover in Tyler Locket.  Kansas State is a better team than Arkansas who gave Auburn more than they could handle on offense averaging over 5 yards per carry in Auburn's home building.  Expect nearly 5 ypc tonight from Kansas State with 3rd down conversions, unlike Arkansas who only converted 2-11 on third down.

Texas +8 4.4* play[/b]
Nearly 70% of the actions on UCLA on Saturday and rightfully so as Texas just lost you are you 7 to 41 in their own building probably one of the most embarrassing losses in the Richtex Texas football history. However a point spread is a lot to work with in this game UCLA is via Heights from preseason to now and they have not pressed me they nearly lost to Memphis at home they struggled with Virginia on the road to open up the season.

Two big things for UCLA their defenses struggle why players that they had to replace the nearly allowed 500 yards in their own building to Memphis. The second thing that concerns me is UCLA has one sack on opposing teams over 87 drawbacks this is something that Texas sophomore QB tyrants whoops will benefit from on Saturday.  UCLA's offense of wine also is not very good only two other football teams in the nation give up more sacks Texas is defense is very underrated despite the 41 points they gave out this team was six nothing going into the half last week against BYU in their past defense has not given up a passing touchdown all year long.

Charlie Strong is slowly putting his touch on his football team his discipline is going to start to show he has another week of preparation and I think there going to be just fine. Texas is defense of line here should be able to put pressure on the highly talented quarterback Brett Hundley defensive and said agreed and offense of tackle Malcolm Brown will make an impact in this game.

I get Texas is offense is not been very good even with the two experienced running backs of mouth and brown and Jonathan Gray but again I think their offense of line which is been beat up will play better this week against UCLA who's defense of line is not generating any pass rush this will create a little bit of the balance in the running game should have a better game than the first two weeks they should be able to score enough points to cover the point spread the way your defense is going to play on Saturday in my opinion take the points here.
    

Wake Forest +15 2.2* play
Okay Wake Force's offense is pretty much nonexistent they go on the road facing Utah State defense that was ranked top 15 the last two years and rightfully so.  However this Utah State team returns only seven toll starters on offense and defense although they will return quarterback checking things have not looked like they had in previous years.

To me this is just way too many points for a game that's likely to be a defensive game especially when you look at week for us and what they've been able to accomplish getting back to last year we got four so far this year has not allowed a passing touchdown into games and they've allowed only 24 points combined. Now think it even more challenging task containing Chucky Keaton however he is not a good one passing touchdown three interceptions in less than 50% completion rate.

Arkansas +1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
Arkansas versus Texas Tech Ohio anticipated game for my opinion because we get to see what the big 12 is all about going up against Annecy Seapoint. Arkansas has a bit of a chip on the shoulder they've lost headed straight to FBS opponents and again they're coming off essentially what is a bye. Dave smacked up nickel State 73 to 7 last week and I guarantee you the coaching staff was looking toward The game against Texas Tech.

The biggest reason why I like Arkansas is the fact that Texas Tech is not going to be able to stay on the field they're knocking to be able to stop in Arkansas's power running game which leads the nation with over 10 yards per carry.  Texas Tech just got done at Wiley Texas El Paso to rush for 277 yards while they held the ball for 39 minutes they also gave up 170 yards to central Arkansas this is a bit of a rebuilding year for Texas Tech and I just don't expect them to win this game at home.

Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams are becoming quite the duo while quarterback bring an Allen offers a nice balance. I think there blowout loss against Auburn was a bit deceiving watching that game I thought Arkansas move the ball well and bring it out has 178 QB rating on the year.  Arkansas's defense is a big? However they get some players back in the secondary for depth which is a big big deal this week against Texas Tech.  Texas Tech she really likes the sling the ball around however there are facing an aggressive defense that features some very good players in the front line including all SEC defense eventually flowers.  Prep Yuma hired some highly touted defensive coaches and I think this is a game where you're going to see a payoff. They play aggressively which should result in a forced turn over to tilt the game in the favor of Arkansas in the end.

East CArolina +10 3.3* Early Bird Special

Here comes Virginia Tech at home after they pulled off the amazing road victory over a top 10 team in Ohio state which pretty much nobody saw coming. But Forster's defense was suffocating and really dominated that game and it will to probably dominate on Saturday. However I'm still taking the generous points given to me by the oddsmakers and I will back east Carolina in this game.

East Carolina also has a defense that's pretty darn good this game is 15 to 10 last year. East Carolina also just came within 10 points on the road of the few South Carolina which is a better team in Virginia Tech in my opinion.  I really like is Carolinas ability to put up some points here enough to at least stay within this number. Shane Carden had 33 touchdowns 10 interceptions last year with a 70% completion rate he's a senior he also wants to seek revenge on Virginia Tech we threw three interceptions against last year.

Carden does not have to do it all on his own he's got wide receiver Justin Hartley who is getting tatted as a first round pick in next years NFL draft.  No doubt Virginia Tech to defense offers the biggest challenge of 2014 however East Carolina is very familiar with this defense the face them two times in the last year and I think again these teams know each other very well why do respect for each other and I really think it's gonna be a close game throughout.

At the end of the day as good as Virginia text defenses their offense is not good enough to cover double digits friend. East Carolina will stack a box in and out on the outside and I just don't see quarterback Michael Brewer being able to win those one-on-one match ups his accuracy is there but I just don't see him being able to avoid the big mistake against this aggressive defense.  Virginia Tech is eat in 19 against the spread in the last 27 following a straight up when 310 in the last 13 following and against the spread one and four and 11 and two against the spread in the last 17 nonconference games.

[b]Toledo +10 2.2* play[/b]
Toledo lost their QB but this offense can still move the rock as they put up 408 yards of offense agaisnt MIssouri just a week ago.  I think Woodside will be in fine shape when you consider he has Kareem Hunt running the ball against the soft Cinci defensive line.  Cinci themselves have yet to play a game and this is Toledo's third game already and last week they faced some speed out of the SEC.  Now they get to face Cinci on a Friday night and I just think it's going to take too long for Cinci to get going especially when they too have a QB making his first ever start.  I don't care how highly touted Kiel was coming out of high school you have to prove it on the field and he is just as much of a question mark as Woodside.  10 point is just too much for this match up.

LA Tech +4 4.4* NCAAF POD
This is one of the more important games for LA Tech early in the season and they have a lot of revenge going into this game after losing at home 28-13 last year.  Tech is a completely different team thus far they feature Iowa transfer QB Cody Sokol who does not make mistakes and Manny Diaz at defensive coordintor who has implemented his aggressive style of play and so far it's looking good.  This team held Oklahoma to less than 200 yards rushing and held them to 5-13 on third down which was quite the achievement and then last week on the road as a double digit dog against an in state rival with 8 returning starters including a dynamic senior QB they held to 7 points through 3 quarters before finishing the victory off at 48-20 covering the spread by 44 points.  In last year's game they went up 10-0 on the Mean Green, but it was turnovers that cost them the game as they were -2 in the game, but North Texas no longer has their senior QB and are completely one dimensional.

North Texas has thrown the ball with their starting QB only 23 times in two games and he has 0 TD and 2 interceptions.  The Mean Green do have a fantastic running tandem, but if LA Tech can hold up against the likes of Oklahoma on the road defending the run I'm thinking they can here.  I just think this LA Tech team is better than last year while North Texas blew out SMU last week it was largely due to the fact that they forced 5 turnovers.  Tech has been taking care of the ball so far this season and if they do that tonight it won't take much offense to outscore North Texas.

Air Force -2 3.3* Late night fix
Air Force will return 15 stars including nine on defense the defense did give up a big number last year to Wyoming however Wyoming only returns five offense of starters in there without their top quarterback Brett Smith who is now playing in the NFL.  Air Force allowed 622 yards last year and again I just don't see that happening again without Brett Smith and five other starters gone Smith was 35 for 41 and that had a lot to do with the Air Force his style of the fence which is going to be different this year with nine returning starters on defense and a new defense of staff that has a more aggressive style of play. 

It's also not like Air Force didn't move the ball and have opportunities to score points they to racked up nearly 500 yards in average 6.1 yards per carry on the ground. Look out for Jacoby Owens in this game for Air Force he rushed for 233 yards average 10.1 yards per carry and again Air Force is really motivated because of the disrespect that Wyoming showed last year Wyoming also has a new coach from not North Dakota State, boy it's gonna take him a little while to get used to playing FBS opponents.

[b]Michigan +3.5 3.3* college assurance[/b]
Michigan versus Notre Dame it's the last match up between you two for a very long time and it should be another classic game the underdog is covered 11 of the last 15 meetings and I believe Michigan will be in good shape to cover the 12th.

Michigan had a very poor year last year but Devin Gardner returns at quarterback the offense of line is revamped and there's talent everywhere Devin Gardner should have plenty of weapons alongside him in at the skill positions.  On defense Michigan has legit all conference tell at every level of the defense they also have strong leadership on defense and they get linebacker Jake Ryan back who is a stud.

Notre Dame will have their own issues on both sides of the ball particular because they have five key players suspended due to academics. I also think it's going to be a major struggle for every Golson although he played well against rice that was rice now he has to go up against Michigan who features four and five star recruits all over their defense with a lot more speed than rice features.  The biggest issue for Golson is the fact that he has not played in a year is where up game was decent but again he still only completed 1220 passes I don't like the looks of that going into this game even if they are at home I'll take my chances with Michigan plus the points.

Vanderbilt +20 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD
This game is one of my value plays of the week Ole Miss couldn't have looked better in their win against Boise State winning 35 to 13 while Vanderbilt could not avoid any worse playing Temple in their 37 to 7 loss. Cedarville committed seven turnovers and got smacked up and down the field against temple I just don't see them turning the ball over seven times and if they did not lose that came last week to spread would be completely different.  This is still a pretty big game for Vanderbilt as both of these teams recruit players in the state of Tennessee so expect me interval to really come out to try to win this actually they have covered 10 of their last 13 meetings against Ole Miss.

For Mississippi they have been getting a lot of media hype Bo Wallace in the offense as well as the defense but when you look at the game last week and I watch him throw three interceptions. Ole Miss actually only lead Boise State 7 to 6 at the end of the third-quarter it and at that time the game could've one anyway until Ole Miss exploded for 28 points in the fourth making the game look more like a blowout than it really was. 

I really like what Vanderbilt did when they lost James Franklin to Penn State they hired Derrick Mason the defense of Cordinator from Stanford this team did not play dad last week they health temple to two for 17 on third down Stanford had rain to 82nd in the Justin defense the three years prior to Mason riding and then on an average 9 to 3 years after.  Part of why I like this play is Bo Wallace on the road last year he could not play well at home he had 160 quarterback rating but on the road he had it only 112 quarterback rating throwing five touchdowns 27 interceptions.  The interval is still an SEC defense and they are loaded with three star recruits. I don't often's Vanderbilt should be able to move the ball and score just enough to cover this game comfortably considering they have for starters on the offense of line returning.  There are questions that quarterback but I still think that this game is going to be about running the ball and taking care of the ball specially after turning the ball over seven times last week this will ultimately shorten the game and allow Vanderbilt to cover this large spread.

Stanford -2.5 2.2* winner
I almost jumped on the bandwagon on Thursday night with USC, but I just could not pull the trigger with Stanford just being one of the more resilient programs around.  They return their QB and head coach and the rest usually falls into place.  They only have 12 overall starters returning, but revenge is clearly on their mind after they lost at USC last year as the #4 ranked team in the country.  Now USC comes into their building with a ton of hype and I think Stanford should be able to get a win with revenge on their mind all spring and summer and no lookahead games in sight.  Keith Hogan will look like a Heisman candidate as he connects with Ty Montgomery.  I also think Hogan will be a bit mobile against one of the best defensive lines in the country which will allow them to pick up first downs and move the chains.

NAVY -3 3.3* EARLY BIRD PLAY
Maybe felt to Ohio State 34 to 17 but halfway through the third quarter Navy was actually winning 14 to 13 temple meanwhile destroyed Vanderbilt 37 to 17 and again I don't think they dominated that game as much as the scoreboard said they were just too for 17 on third down and they needed seven turnovers to complete the victory.  It was the first time they be in SEC opponent sent since 1938 temple did hold Vanderbilts office at 278 yards but they are having major quarterback issues expect need me to have no issues with her junior QB Kenyan Reynolds they put up 370 yards rushing on Ohio State which figures to have a very good defense this year.

Arizona -7 -104 4.5* POD
As much as I'd love to back San Antonio for another win here tonight their win on the road against an in state rival (Houston) 27-7 last week is enough to make me change my mind.  Not only is UTSA going to be a bit hung over, but they did not dominate Houston like the score states.  Their new QB only managed 263 yards last week and they converted just 29% of their third downs while a +4 turnover margin helped big time.  Arizona was a 25.5 point favorite at home last year and won 38-13 and I just don't see UTSA having that big of a home field advantage.  I also think the oddsmaker's have adjusted this line way too much based on one week and Arizona looked even better than Houston did if you ask me.

Arizona is breaking in a new QB and a new RB, but this offense should be even better with the talent they have at WR.  The fact that they have 4 starters and 104 starts combined along the starting offensive line is the key.  Rich Rodriguez can work with that and his offense broke the school record agaisnt UNLV last week.  I just don't see UTSA being able to stay with Arizona tonight even though I'd love to see it happen it won't.  UTSA's new QB is still unproven and I don't know a lot about him, but I wonder how many times he's seen a 3-3-5 defense with this kind of speed?

Utah State +5 4.4* NCAAF POD
A lot of question marks in this game, but I still feel really good about the value I'm getting with Utah State due to the strengths and weaknesses of each team.  First of all Utah State easily has the edge at QB in Chuckie Keeton who returns from his injury last year.  Justin Worley just does not impress me 117 QB rating last year behind one of the best offensive lines.  In fact both QB's have to play behind inexperienced offensive lines that are completely rebuilt and who would you take as a more likely player to be able to play well?  Keeton is a mobile QB that can buy time for his receivers to get open.  Even though Tennessee has a very good secondary they can't cover guys forever and a very green defensive front for Tennessee is going to allow Utah State to score enough to be in good shape to win this game in my opinion.  Utah State should also be able to get a running game going with Keeton and company since Tennessee was 114th vs. the run last year in ypc allowed and they lost their top 5 tacklers. 

Utah State's defense was top 10 the last two years.  I think they will be very good again especially in the front 7 where they return 3 very good linebackers and 2 of their 4 on the front line.  This defense was #2 in run defense and they return 5 of 7 in the front 7.  The depth is an issue, but it was last year as well and they played well.  The defense really has issues in the secondary, but I don't think Tennessee has the QB to take advantage of those issues.  TN wideouts are extremely talented but Worley could not get the job done behind an offensive line that had 184 career starts a year ago and I don't see it possible for him to play well behind an offensive line that will have 6 career starts going into game #1.

Wisconsin +4 2.2* play
LSU only brings back 5 guys on offense and some other key players will not be traveling with the team tonight.  I really like the dog in a game that really should be a coin flip.  The Big Ten gets no respect going up against the SEC, and I really like Wisconsin's offensive line, running game and their QB Tanner McEvoy is going to be extremely intriguing addition to this offense as a mobile QB to go along with Melvin Gordon who is a stud returning from last year when he averaged 7.81 ypc rushing for 1609 yards. LSU is young with talent on defense, but overall I just think there is value on the Badgers on a neutral field against an LSU team that is getting more credit than they deserve.

Arkansas +18.5 3.3* NCAAF College Assurance

Bret Bielema is a damn fine coach and despite the results last year he was not that far away.  Bielema loves to trash talk the tempo offense and now he gets his shot after an entire off season to prepare.  Look for him to run the ball and kill the clock in this one and he should have no issue doing so.  Auburn's defense is far from elite and they gave up 200+ yards rushing to 6 teams last year including Arkansas.  This team actually gave up a more yards to power running teams which is exactly what Arkansas is with RB's Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams.

Overall Auburn's offense is much better and they are going to be hard to stop but I expect Arkansas can limit their possessions and I do like their defense a bit better along with the impressive hires they did for the defense gives me plenty of confidence and value on taking Arkansas at +18.5.

Virginia +21 5.5* NCAAF POD
I had Virginia in the first game of the year as a home dog last year playing a team traveling from the West Coast and it was in fact Virginia's most impressive win.  Virginia hosts UCLA who comes all the way from LA to play a game at noon.  It's an interesting match up with the hype of UCLA with many saying they have a shot at being 1 of the 4 teams in the playoff at the end of the year.  Brett Hundley is also getting hype as a Heisman candidate but I'm not buying into this.

Hundley is known for making mistakes especially on the road.  He takes way too many sacks and this Virginia defense returns 10 guys on a very aggressive unit that can force you into mistakes.  All of their linebackers return including their bakc ups and the defense is as talented as any with more blue chip recruits and their secondary is just loaded with depth and 4* recruits.  Hundley was sacked 35 times last year and the fact that he has to replace 3 offensive line starter and he also lost his top target in Shaq Evans is going to create a drop down in the early going.

I have not forgotten about UCLA's defense it is very strong and has a lot of talent in the front, but on the road they were not dominant in stopping the run and Virginia does have 4 and 5 * recruits at RB behind an experienced and big offensive line.  UCLA's defense did lose their best pass rushers in Anthony Barr and Cassius Mash along with Kenan Graham.  The depth of the front 7 is a concern and if Virginia can stick to the run they should have a chance at winning this game by forcing turnovers and smart clock management.
    

UCF -2 3.3* NCAAF POD
Central Florida went into happy valley and won by 3 as a 4.5 point underdog last year and now they had to Ireland to face Penn State who is returning 2 less starters than Central Florida.  End of the day Penn State may have a major advantage with blue chip QB Christian Hackenberg, but he loses his top two targets and the offensive line returns just 2 starters.  Penn State has the second youngest team in the nation, unprove offensive line, no receiver threats, a new coach, and they are traveling in week 1 to play a team with a very good coach in George O'Leary.

These are just too many things to overcome and I don't care if Penn State has the better QB.  UCF returns 9 starters on defense that was very good 25th, in opposing pass yards/ attempt, 16th in opposing QB rating, and 46th in rushing yards per carry.  UCF has a new QB, but their receivers are loaded and they all have different skills that will help them move the chains.  Central Florida also enjoys a significant advantage in special teams that will be the difference in this game.

UTSA +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
This was a blow out last year as Texas San Antonio lost to Houston 28-59, but when you look at HOuston's season it is hard to see them doing what they did being +25 in TO margin.  A lot of luck factored in when you see that they recovered 63% of their fumbles and picked of 50% of their pass break ups (25% average), and only threw 10 intereceptions on 76 pass break ups again is very lucky.  Yeah they beat up on UTSA, but when you look at the stat line both teams had 27 first downs, and UTSA actually had 493 yards to Houston's 491.  It was the 4 turnovers that killed them and returning 38 senior this year has got to be worth something.

I'm not surprised that UTSA closed the season with 5 wins last year.  They are in a sweet spot in San Antonio for recuriting and I think the best is yet to come.  They only lost 2 players on offense and they return their entire offensive line and their back ups which I may remind you all 5 starters are seniors and they were ranked 43rd in adjusted line yards and 15th in adjusted sack rate.  Expect this team to be able to score some points and keep this within the total.

Boise State +11 3.3* College Assurance
This game is on a neutral field in Atlanta in SEC Country, but expect as many fans rooting against Ole Miss as for.  The other two story lines in this match up are the media hype and Ole Miss pre season top 20 ranking along with the new coaching staff of Boise State.  Ole Miss hype with 16 returning starters including their QB who is the top QB returning in the SEC from last year, but we have seen Ole Miss not respond to hype in the past.  Not saying they won't have a great season, but this is the perfect game for them to look past and the perfect game for Boise to steal and kick off a new era under a new energetic coaching staff.

Bryan Harsin is no stranger to Boise State's success and I think he really has the perfect recipe here to pull the upset.  First of all I really like what he did by bringing in a young coaching staff with chips on their shoulders.  I think this entire team will compete with each other and I think they are smart as well.  With that said they should have an edge on special teams as well which is always huge early in the season.  I think their strengths in secondary with 9 upper classmen returning and all of their starters matches up well with Ole Miss tendency to throw the ball.  Boise also has a dual threat running QB in Grand Hedrick who had 16 passing TD to 5 interceptions on 69% completion rate.  He also has Jay Ajayi back at half back who averaged 5.72 ypc and rushed for 1,425 yards and 18 TD's.  Boise is going to play smart football here and look to steal the game.  I'm not overly impressed with Ole Miss and I really like the coaching moves Boise made and I think they are the favorites to win the Mountain West.
 

Texas A&M +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD

South Carolina and Texas A&M get the SEC network started and both will be without two of the biggest names in college football as Manziel and Clowney are now in the NFL.  However, what remains are two top coaches in Kevin Sumlin and Steve Spurrier and two top 10 recruiting classes.  South Carolina returns more starters, but I don't believe it's enough to warrant being double digit favorites to start the year.

First of all Kevin Sumlin is a very very good offensive coach and A&M is 10-2 on the road with him at the helm.  He also has blue chip guys at all of the skill positions including two at QB and two at RB.  The offensive line is always a strength with this unit as they return 4 of their 5 starters after losing Jake Mathews to the NFL draft.  This unit has the potential to be better.  As of today I think Texas A&M's offense is better than South Carolina's who are dealing with the loss of two of their best offensive players in Ellington and Shaw.  The offense has to completely change for them with Dylan Thompson who is a completely different QB.  I think Thompson is capable, but again this offense will be built to run the football which should benefit us in covering the double digit spread by slowing the game down.

This spread is where it's at due to the loss of starters and how bad the defense looked last year for A&M, but their is a silver lining.  A&M's defense picked it up last part of the year and they won't be dealing with the injury crisis they were in 2013.  I don't think this unit is far from being a top 50 defense and I think they'll be able to handle a more traditional one dimensional attack to open the season.  Spurrier and the Gamecocks were 37th in rushing play % and the same the year before.  With the strength of the offensive line I see no reason why they won't try to run the ball 60% of the time to ensure victory.

So A&M gets the nod on offense, South Carolina gets the edge on defense, and I think A&M gets the nod on special teams.  South Carolina has a senior punter in Hall but he averaged just 37.8 yards per punt and the South Carolina lacks any type of a return game and that's nothing new the last five years they have ranked 94th, 75th, 112th, 86th, and 114th in the nation.  That will not benefit you early in the season against a good coach and a talented team with potential.  A&M's kicker averaged 47.4 yards and their place kicker often forced touchbacks.  I think A&M will be able to benefit from field advantage