Miami +3.5 3.3% play 

USC+3 2.2% play

USC is 2-4 ATS this season, and now they go on the road for their most difficult task to face the Notre Dame team that suffered their season ending 2nd loss. I don’t think Notre Dame planned to suffer their 2nd loss already this season, but the fact is they let the Ohio State game get away, they should have lost to Duke, and Lousiville pretty much dominated that game if you ask me.  This game to me is all about the coaching mismatch, and although I don’t respect the DC of USC for obvious reasons.  Lincoln Riley is head and shoulders above Marcus Freeman who continues to make poor decisions late in the game.  Notre Dame’s offense is also lacking, which is surprising since Sam Hartman is their QB, but Hartman has struggled when competition has picked up, and he lacks the athletic receivers he had at Wake Forest.  

Ironically I bet Notre Dame +5 last year on the road, and now they’re 3 point favorites, which I can’t see that big of a line move in this match up.  My handicap was USC’s poor run defense (120th at the time) against Notre Dame’s strength of running the ball, but USC actually held them to 90 yards rushing in the game. Now doing that on the road poses more of a challenge, but I like USC’s coaching staff more to make adjustments, and this is a pretty big game for the Trojans who want to prove something as everyone is talking about Oregon and Washington being the best teams out of the PAC 12. Lastly, this is Notre Dame’s 8th week in a row playing football and that includes a trip to Ireland to start the season.  The last 3 weeks have been high leverage, and I just have to think and it maybe showed last week… What does this team have left?

Auburn +11.5 2.2% 

This is probably the best defense LSU has faced all year, and Auburn will come in fully rested off a bye after taking Georgia to the end of the game.  LSU’s offense is clicking, but this is their 7th straight game, and the last 3 games have been extremely high leverage games decided in the final seconds.  What does this team have left, especially the defense?  I’m not sure they have much, and Auburn's defense should be able to keep them in it.  Auburn ranks 58th in ypp, but their opponent average offense ranks 25th and they are holding opponents 11.4 points under their season average. Compare that with LSU who ranks 124th against a 46th average offense.  Auburn also the far better special teams here, and their head coach Hugh Freeze 29-12 ATS as a dog.

Washington -3

The Huskies have not played anyone that is on the same level as Oregon thus far, but they have played the tougher schedule and have better results.  When you take out garbage time the Huskies have an average success rate of 38th against an average opponent success rate of 70th, while Oregon is at 53.5 vs. 90.4.  Oregon should have lost to Texas Tech on the road trailing 27-18 entering the 4th quarter, and Tech driving late to kick a field goal to win it coughed up the ball and Oregon took it back for a TD for a misleading 38-30 win.

The Huskies have been absolutely dominant at home, and while the teams they have faced are not on the level of Oregon they have plenty of confidence seeing they went to Oregon last year and pulled out a win as 12 point dogs.  The biggest reason i LIke Washington is their defense is flat out better.  They rank 35th in ypp allowed against an average opponent ranking 61.8, while ORegon is 51st against an average 91.25 opponent.  This is going to be a fabulous game, and I feel Washington is not getting the credit they deserve, and then factor in Bo Nix road splits, which even last year showed up.  Entering this season he has 28 TD to 20 INT in road games, and 30 TD to 3 INT at home.

Bowling Green +4.5 3.3% play

Buffalo is not a very good team this year.  They have faced a far weaker schedule compared to Bowling Green, and have played far worse at home than Bowling Green played on the road against their common opponent Liberty.  I think we are buying low on Bowling Green after their 27-0 loss a week ago to Miami Ohio, but they were clearly in a bit of a flat spot after upsetting a very good Georgia Tech team the week before.

Buffalo is -2 yards per play on the season against an opponent average of -0.16, while Bowling Green does not impress at -1.7 ypp it has come against an average opponent +1.28 ypp.  I think they shoudl be able to run the ball here as Buffalo ranks 130th in defensive ypc, and their should be opportunity for some explosive plays as they rank 25th in explosive offense comparedt o Buffalo who ranks 116th in explosive defense.  Overall this is a strenght of schedule play as Buffalo far worse on offense and defense and has played a far weaker schedule.  Thier average opponen ypp defense is 85.6 compared to Bowling Green's 35th, and their average opponent offense ranks 64th compared to Bowling Greens 37.6.  

Army / Troy Under 42.5 2.2% play 

Neither team is great in the red zone on offense, and better in red zone defense so I expect a fair amount of field goals.  Army has been involved in some higher totals the last few games, but they faced mobile QB’s from BC and Syracuse who combined for 192 yards on 41 carries.  Troy’s Gunnar Watson is not at all a running QB so the Army defense will get to take that threat out of the game plan, which should help a bunch.  It’s also going to be a bit rainy and windy, which also should help this go under the total.

Army 131st in pace, and run the ball a ton, while Troy’s defense is among the best in explosive plays allowed.  They also faced this Army team last year they rank 23rd in rushing success defense.  Troy’s offense can be explosive at times, but Army ranks 40th in explosive plays allowed, and Troy also 91st in pace so expecting this to be a game of limited possessions with some familiarity from last year. 

Tennessee -3 3.3% play 

Utah State +4.5 2.2% / Utah State +170 0.8% play

Fresno State could be without their starting QB Mikey Keene here, and I think it's trending that way on a short week as Fresno State heads back on the road to elevation for the second week in a row.  Both teams are pass first teams and run tempo, but Utah State has the better passing #'s against a tougher schedule.  Fresno's defense ranks 11th in ypp, but their average opponent offense ypp is 109.8th, and opponent ypp differential is -1.6.  Fresno has played one of the weakest schdules to date, and with a backup QB in Logan FIfe likely making the start I think there is some value on the money line as well here.

Louisville +7 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD

This game has all the ingredients of an upset win here for Louisville.  Notre Dame is off back to back games that took a full effort and were high leverage results coming down to the last few plays.  Louisville has the extra day of rest and prep, and will be at home at night with their first sell out crowd in 4 years.  Jeff Brohm is the better and more experienced coach in this match up and he is 10-6 ATS as a home dog.  I just don’t trust this Notre Dame team, which has played great defense, but They will be up against an offense that could give them some issues in this one, and Notre Dame’s coaching staff has yet to let Sam Hartman loose. I expect a close fought game, and the home crowd will make the difference at night.

Kentucky/ Georgia Under 48 3.3% play 

I like the under in this game.  I still feel like Georgia has an elite defense despite giving up 200+ yards rushing and 20 points to an Auburn offense that looked horrible the week before.  Most of that running came from the RB’s and Devin Leary just does not pose that type of threat.  In fact it also seems like Leary is struggling in the passing game, and I think Kentucky will spend plenty of time trying to run the ball after the success they had a week ago against Florida, but this game is on the road, at night and Georgia for the first time this year may try to flex their muscles.  Both defenses rank top 25 in explosive plays allowed, and both defenses are top 15 in yards per play allowed, top 25 in success rate defense.  Kentucky just has not had a ton of offensive success vs. this Georgia defense scoring 6, 13, 3, 0, 17, 13 over the past 6 years.

Kent State / Ohio Under 45.5 2.2% play 

Navy/South Florida Over 61 2.2% play 

Playing any service academy over the total is always a concern because they run the ball a ton and they play at a slow pace, but the spots I like to take the over is when they are playing a team that is poor against the run, have a capable offense, and play up tempo.  North Texas is 31st in pace, they rank 38th in yards per play, and they rank 127th in yards per play defense, and are allowing opponents to score 21 points more than their season average.  I think Navy can name their score here, and North Texas is definitely capable of scoring some points against this Navy defense.  Dating back to last season the last 3 totals when Navy has faced  teams that play this style the totals have been 74, 74, and 74 including their last game against South Florida.  I think this one goes over the total as I see both teams getting into the 30s.  Both of these defenses have struggled in red zone defense allowing over 70% touch downs, which will also help the total. For North Texas this is a new coaching staff, and the defensive coordinator Matt Caponi coached CB’s at Iowa State, and they did not face any service academies.

Alabama -130 3.5% play

Bama is still being punished for their loss to Texas and their struggles vs. South Florida, but honestly what has Texas AM proven so far?  This is nearly a 3 TD line move from the past 4 years where the spread is 24, 18.5, 18, an17 to a pk, and now back up to 2, or 2.5 since limits increased.  Alabama has more impressive SEC wins vs. Ole Miss and Miss State than the Aggies wins over Auburn and Arkansas.  Both teams lost non-conference games they were favored in, but I’m pretty sure Texas would be favored over Miami on a neutral by a TD. 

Nick Saban has also dominated his previous coaches and has beaten Jimbo Fisher the last 5 years.  Nick Saban’s defense seems to be the strength of this year’s team and while the Aggies have been playing well offensively their is a lot of familiarity here with Max Johnson taking the start.  In his two starts against Alabama he’s completed less than 50% of his passes for very little yards.  Alabama’s run defense has been excellent too.  They are much better on turnovers per possession on offense and defense ranking 18th, and 52nd to A&M who ranks 75th on offense and 119th at forcing turnovers.  For an elite defense they sure don’t take the ball away.  Alabama was right in that game against Texas thanks to QB Milroes accurate deep throws and explosive offense, and A&M ranks 119th in explosive plays allowed. Miami’s passing game lit them up, and I think Milroe will have an excellent game here.

LSU -4 3.3% PLAY 

I’m really not buying into this MIssouri team right now.  Their offense is not balanced despite ranking 21st in yards per play their average opponent ypp defense ranks 89th, and they rank 88th in rushing ypc, and while LSU’s defense has struggled it has come against teams that are top 50 in passing and rushing, and have a QB that can run.  Brady Cook has only 37 rushing yards on 35 carries.  I think LSU can bounce back here and I trust Brian Kelly off a loss, and he’s clearly the better coach here.

I think Missouri is taking money with this line coming down, because the idea that LSU suffered a dream crushing loss last week, and their playoff hopes are done, but I think Kelly can sell to his team that if they run the table they can not only get into the SEC Championship, but the playoff if they win out.  They have a game at Alabama, and Texas A&M at home to wrap up the season.  The playoffs are very much still a thing for this LSU team in my opinion.  LSU’s offense is elite, and nothing Missouri has faced comes close.  Kansas State, and Memphis the only two teams who have top 60 passing and rushing offense, but neither have a mobile QB, and neither featured a top 20 unit while LSU is top 20 in both, and 4th in success rate overall.  LSU’s defense has struggled allowing explosive plays ranking 124th, but Missouri’s offense ranks just 92nd in explosive offense.  

Oklahoma +5.5 3.3% PLAY 

Texas is getting a lot of the early action with 80% tickets and $, but the spread has actually dropped and gone the other way.  To me these teams seem pretty even to me, and there are more red flags on the Texas side.  First off they won 49-0 last year, but that was an Oklahoma team battling major injuries and in the first year of Brent Venables scheme, which was a complete culture shift.  Oklahoma’s defense looks like they have really turned the corner.

Texas red flags to me are the fact that their offense ranks 46th on third down against an average opponent third down defense ranking 82.6.  They rank 27th in ypc, but that has come against an average 83.2 ypc defense, and with garbage time eliminated they rank 86th in rushing success rate.  Texas also has not faced a team yet that will push the pace as their average opponent pace is 90th, while Oklahoma ranks 33rd in seconds per play and Texas is 128th in explosive defense.  Texas beat Alabama, they beat Oklahoma last year 49-0, and this is their chance to really get confident and say Texas is back, but I think Oklahoma is just the better team when it comes to 3rd downs, turnovers, and red zone.  

Texas/Oklahoma over 60 2.2% play

Notre Dame/ Duke Under 53.5 3.3% play 

Duke is 99th in pace, Notre Dame is 112th, and both are run first teams. Notre Dame does not seem to want to take the chains of Sam Hartman, and Duke is 1st in explosive defense, 111th in explosive offense.  This total is just too high and I expect the pace of this game to be on the slower side. 

Ole Miss +3 -115 2.5% play 

LSU is a big play for a lot of folks this week, but I don’t understand it.  First of all the home team is 8-2 straight up and 9-1 ATS in the series.  Ole Miss came off the game against Alabama where they did not cover, but LSU missed covering the spread a week ago by 2 TD’s.  I just don’t understand how a team is favored on the road in the SEC with the 70th ranked run defense, 104th ranked QB defense, 119th ranked 3rd down defense, and 102nd ranked success rate defense.  Ole Miss on the flip side is a top 50 offense and defense and they have faced a tougher schedule statistically.  LSU ranks 81st in protecting their QB and heads on the road to face an Ole Miss defensive line that is elite and ranks 26th in getting to the QB.  I think this line is a bit of an over reaction as many were on Ole Miss a week ago.  Ole Miss also +1.6 ypp differential on the year compared to Florida State who LSU lost to is +1.2 vs. -0.25.  I’m not saying Ole Miss > than FSU, but I think they are getting disrespected with this line here.

Boise State +3 2.2% play

Memphis has played the far easier schedule than Boise who has faced Washington and Central Florida.  Memphis needs to throw the ball to be successful while Boise needs to run it, and both defenses struggle, but Boise’s stats are a bit inflated as their game with Washington’s pass happy offense that is hard for anyone to stop.  Memphis just gave up 300 yards rushing in back to back games.  Both of these teams are in similar situation it feels with similar coaches that are under performing.  I feel like Memphis is getting a lot of credit here for the way they played against a Missouri team out of the SEC that is currently ranked.  I’m sorry Missouri is not a top 25 team and they were lucky to beat Kansas State and have not been very impressive to start the season.  Memphis also has a bigger game on deck against TUlane, not that a G5 would overlook Boise State.  Boise State also an extra day of rest/preparation for this one.  I think this game will be a back and forth enjoyable game, but Boise State should be able to run the ball here given what we have seen from Memphis of late.  Boise State is 36-0 when they run for 175+ yards since 2015.

Indiana +14.5 2.2% play

Indiana getting some extra points here in my opinion after nearly losing to Akron in OT and getting out gained by 200 yards.  Indiana has played very good defense against Ohio State and Louisville, while Maryland continues to get hype despite not playing anyone.  The average opponent ypp defense that Maryland has has faced ranks 108th in ypp defense, an average 92nd ypp offense, and aveage opponent -1.56 ypp differential.  Maryland won 31-9 and covered the spread at Michigan State but they benefited from forcing 5 turnovers from a sputtering Spartan team.  Maryland also has a very large look ahead with Ohio St on deck. Meanwhile Indiana desperate to play better and the defense continues to carry the torch.  Offensively they really like to slow it down 105th in pace.

Boston College / Virginia Over 53 2.2% play 

Florida +3 3.3% play 

Syracuse +7 2.2% play 

Akron -2.5 2.2% play 

Some value here with Akron who has by far faced a tougher schedule with three road games at Indiana, Kentucky, and Temple, but they return home to face an underwhelming Buffalo team.  Akron had a very impressive performance taking Indiana to the brink as a 16.5 point dog losing in OT.  QB DJ Irons is real dual threat who will give a Buffalo defense that has been very poor defense ranking 131st in ypp. Buffalo had a misleading final last week after training by 21 in the final minutes before getting a TD, onside kick, and TD to lose by 7 to Louisiana.

Arkansas / AM Under 54 2.2% play

You have to wonder why Max Johnson the son of an NFL QB has not gotten more opportunities?  His college stat line is 42 TD and 7 INT over the past 4 seasons.  He is a dink/dunk type QB that’s not going to wow you with his arm, but he’s efficient.  He’ll be getting rid of the ball quickly today against an Arkansas defense that ranks #1 in sack %.  Both of these teams are top 50 in success rate offense and defense and are elite in red zone defense, preventing TD’s.  I think we could see another tight game like we have in years past, but this total to me is a bit out of whack.  

Arkansas would have to put up points here but they rank 92nd in explosive offense, and 102nd in pace.  I love KJ Jefferson, but I think this is his biggest challenge.  He had a great game last year they only managed 21 points in a 2 point loss, and went two quarters without scoring.  This isn’t BYU, or LSU’s 89th ranked ypp defense.  Arkansas also needs this game like blood so I am expecting a very high effort from their defense that tends to keep everything in front of them.

NC State +3.5 3.3% play 

Everyone is drinking the kook aid for Louisville who has started 4-0 and will head on the road to face a solid NC State defense Friday night.  You’d be hard to find someone actually on NC State here tonight, but I think it’s a good spot when you factor in they have an extra day of prep and they don’t have to travel and they are a home dog.  Louisville coming off a great game where they lit up Boston College, and they have Notre Dame on deck, who they will host and it will be a sell out for the first time in 4 years.

Jeff Brohm has taken over Louisville and so far so good, but this is not the role I’m looking to back Brohm in as a favorite.  He was just 13-19 ATS as a favorite at Purdue, he was 12-4 ATS as a dog.  NC State value is real as they are 0-4 ATS so far.  I think Brennan Armstrong who was reunited with his old OC Robert Annae may have a chance to have a good game.  They have had 2 road games and Notre Dame at home, while Louisville only had one game on the road against Georgia Tech, a game they trailed 28-13 at the half and should have lost.  NC State by far has faced the tougher schedule as their average opponent ypp differential is +0.23 compared to Louisville -1.03.  

Louisville ranks 101st in ypp defense, 111th in defensive sack %, and 84th in 3rd down defense yet they are a road favorite. I’m not buying it.  I expect a tight game, but NC State is poised for their best showing of the season.  They trailed Notre Dame at home by only 7 points entering the 4th quarter.  Armstrong ended up throwing 3 INT.  NC State has only 1 TO in their other 3 games.  I think NC State’s defensive line at home will be the difference.  They rank 28th in sack %, and Louisville has yet to face a defense that can get after the QB.

Ohio State -155 4% play

I think the money line is the way to get after this game.  First of all Notre Dame home game won’t be your typical as Ohio State fans travel well and their should be 20K+ Ohio State fans in the building for this one.  Notre Dame is also the public dog play here and honestly they have faced a very weak schedule with an average opponent ypp differential of -2.36.  Ohio State comes in at -1.7 so same boat, but for some reason Notre Dame is getting much more credit.  I think the difference will be Notre Dame’s inability to run the ball here, and although I respect Sam Hartman a lot I don’t think he will be able to overcome it and he’s been known to make a mistake or two.  The internal OL of Notre Dame is going to have issues here, and I think Ohio State’s defense has taken a lot of steps compared to recent years.  

Ohio State’s offense is still a work in progress, but they have the best WR in the nation in Harrisson who is a major mismatch. Notre Dame was a 17 point under dog just a year ago and got outgained by 150 yards, and now they are a 3 point dog at home, which is a 14 line move, and Notre Dame does not have the luxury of preparing all summer for Ohio State like they did a year ago as it was their first game.s

Georgia Tech +4 3.3% play

Wake Forest is a very misleading 3-09 when you factor in their easy schedule of Elon, Vanderbilt, and Old Dominoin who they trailed 24-7 late in the third quarter last week.  With the 3-0 record they are actually only +-0.2 yards per play and that has come against an average opponent rank of -0.2 ypp margin.  On the flip side Georgia Tech has played an average Ypp differential opponent of +1.65. 

I really think Georgia Tech has the edge at QB with transfer QB King ranking 29th in QBR.  They have been very good at protecting him and converting third downs top 50 in both categories, and they were right in the game against Ole Miss last week, a game that they trailed by 7 late in the 4th quarter which end up being a very bad beat as we had Georgia Tech +17.5.  I think its a good time to sell on Wake Forest. 

Oklahoma State +3.5 2.2% play

Oklahoma State and Iowa State look like two challenging offenses, but MIke Gundy has sort of owned Matt Campbell over the years and they have been unable to win with any sort of margin.  Not to mention the total has dropped two points to a whopping 35 and the weather looks horrible with 17mph winds and some rain in the forecast.  This line has moved in favor of Iowa State, but I don’t see why or how both of these teams have shown up as equally bad.

Temple / Miami Under 47 2.2% play

The weather is going to be a real issue here for both teams with 20 mph sustained winds and 30+mph gusts with rain added to the forecast. This total has been bet down, but I believe there is still value under 47.  I honestly don't know how Temple is going to score here when Miami knows Temple is going to have to run due to teh weather and Temple averaged less than 3 ypc vs. Akron and Rutgers.  Temple's defense on the flip side has been pretty good, and they are even better at home.  I think Miami's first road game with ACC on deck could be a bit of a sleep spot.  Miami also 129th in pace and is fine slowing it down.  With running being the likely play choice here Temple should be able to force some field goals. I like  Temple too given the spot, but I just don't know if they can score more than 10 points.

Alabama -6.5 2.2% play 

Extreme buy low spot on Alabama after they lost at home to Texas they had a bit of a hang over against South Florida on the road last week, and now they come back home to play Ole Miss, but I believe Alabama will be ready to play their best game of the season.  If anything good came out of the South Florida game it was that their no longer should be a QB controversy as Tyler Buchner went 5-14  for 34 yards against South Florida.  Jalen Milroe is a dynamic player running the ball and he can throw the deep ball beautifully and gives Alabama the best shot to win here.  

Ole Miss defense is just not doing anything for me here.  They gave up over 500 yards to Georgia Tech last week and a misleading cover, and they struggled with Tulane with a back up QB, but still won and covered the game so we are coming with a nice buy low sell high situation and we have Nick Saban with extra motivation.

Over 54 2.2% play 

Perfect weather for this game and will not impact the offensive game plan at all.  Boston College games this season have all gotten into the 50’s this season, and I expect this game to reach 60 total points.  Boston College has really struggled on defense and their game last week was quite misleading on the defensive side of the ball where they gave up 31 points early before Florida State took their foot off the gas the week before Clemson.  I think that has given us some extra value here in the total when you combine the fact that Louisville played a low total game on the road against Indiana.  Louisville is coming back home and you can bet Jeff Brohm will be motivated to put on a show against the struggling BC secondary. Both of these teams play fast temp so you can expect plenty of possessions. BC’s offense looks improved the past few weeks so I have no worries about them putting up their share of points in this one.

Auburn +8.5 3.3% play 

I know Auburn is a bit banged up, but that is why this spread is getting up above 8 points.  They’ll have their QB’s who both offer different strengths with Thorne and Ashford.  I think Auburn is a difficult team to defend and I think this number is too large, while Auburn has played well, and are stout on defense.  I think the Aggies could struggle in what should be a one possession game, which has been historically the way Jimbo likes to coach.   Hugh Freeze is a great coach as a dog including 16-6 ATS as an away dog, and I think that will continue at Auburn.  We don’t really know much about Auburn as they brought in a lot of transfers, and have yet to show their identity other than the fact that they are a run first team still.  Their stats are better against similar competition and I can’t help but think Hugh Freeze has saved a little something for his return to the SEC.  

A lot of experts are discounting Auburn’s struggles against Cal, but they did win the game, while A&M gave up 48 points in a loss to Miami.  Why aren’t we making a big deal about that loss?  Cal has looked very good early on and their statistical profile is actually similar to Miami.  I am just not so sure how good of a coach Jimbo Fisher is at this point and he is surely not one to get margin in a game.  We hear the hype around A&M every year, and every year they disappoint.  Bobby Petrino has taken over the offense, which is a good thing for the Aggies, but this is a big test against a defense that has been solid ranking 10th in QB rating defense, 20th in ypp defense.

Army +13 2.2% play

Syracuse has a massive look ahead to Clemson next week and they have a really poor sandwich spot here facing Army after they impressed many a week ago against Purdue, but after last night I really am not impressed with Purdue and Syracuse benefitted from 4 Purdue turnovers a week ago. Syracuse is a bit over value in my opinion because they are 3-0 SU & ATS, but have faced two of the worst teams in FBS/FCS.  Army meanwhile flying under the radar and have a very strong defense.  They are a very troubling team to prepare for, and look to be throwing the ball more this year, but overall will slow this game down.  Army dominated UTSA as a dog a week ago, and love playing service academies in this role

San Diego State +7 3.3% play

SD State value here is a home dog after a brutal start of the season due to the tough schedule they have played *UCLA, Oregon State, and a very good MAC Ohio team.  They welcome in Boise State to kick off the Mountain West season, and really what is Boise State at this point?  I just have not been impressed.  They are a one dimensional offense led by Taylen Green who is prone to interceptions and has not played well at all on the road.  Boise State's defense has not looked good and have been deceptively bad.  San Diego State will look to revenge last year's loss and I think they'll have a chance to pull the outright upset.  

Purdue / Wisconsin Over 53.5 2.2% play

Akron/Kentucky Under 49.5 3.3% play

Purdue +115 2.5% ML PLAY 

Night game at Purdue is a rare thing, and they are under dogs, which I’m a bit confused by.  Syracuse was a 1.5 point favorite at home in this game last year, a game that they really were fortunate to win, Purdue had +170 yard edge in that game.  The strength of Purdue’s defense is their run defense as they have held Fresno and Virginia Tech in check. Syracuse relies heavily on the run, but in road games they have struggled as they averaged over a yard less per carry last year on the road and they were also -1.4 ypc in losses vs. wins.  Purdue should be able to hold the rushing attack in check, and that will put a lot of pressure on Garret Shrader who threw 3 TD’s last year, but completed only 44% o his throws.  Purdue has had two tough games already.  Syracuse has played nobody, and I think the line is a bit inflated because of this.

Florida +7 -123 3% / Florida +205 0.3% play

Joe Milton, the Tennessee QB is not someone I want to back on the road at night in the SEC as a favorite.  Florida line value here after they looked awful in week 1 opener at Utah, a very tough place to play.  This is a huge game for Billy Napier and the Florida Gators who rarely are home under dogs.  I expect they will show up here.  Graham Mertz actually did not look terrible at Utah they just really struggled in the red zone as he went 21-44, 333 yards passing.  Florida has had two weeks to think about that loss which they took out on McNeese State last week, but their season really starts here, and I think Tennessee is getting a little too much credit for what they did last year, and they have yet to be tested in 2023.

Tulane/Southern Miss Under 49.5 2.2% play 

Minnesota +7.5 2.2% play 

After game 1 it looked like North Carolina’s defense was drastically improved, but they had all off season to prepare for South Carolina, a team that was unable to run the ball last week against Furman with 39 rushes for barley 100 yards, while North Carolina’s defense showed up like they always do against App STate, and got torched to the tune of 219 yards rushing and 275 passing pulling off the win over App State in double OT.  Now they have another challenging opponent with PJ Fleck rowing down to North Carolina to give North Carolina  a headache.  I think Minnesota can control this game with their running game, and their defense is just good enough to keep North Carolina in check.  The Big Ten has also really owned the ACC winning 58% of the games by an average of 4.3 points per game, while NOrth Carolina has a 9-12 record vs. Big Ten.  Since 2017 the Big Ten is 23-10 with a margin over 7 points per game.

Missouri +4 2.2% play 

Army +9 2.2% play 

We have a low total here of 44, and what seems to be an overrated UTSA team going up agianst an Army team who is not getting much respect after they lost their opening game to Louisian Monroe after leading by 10 late.  Army wants revenge for their 41-38 loss last year at home where they were 2 point dogs.  Army now goes on the road to the state of Texas where they always play well because of the number of alumni in the state of Texas and I believe they will play hard in this game. UTSA has experience, but QB Frank Harris is not 100% with a toe injury, and they have 3 other OL that are banged up as well. Army well rested after their 57-0 victory a week ago.  If they can clean up the turnovers, they will cover this spread. 

Navy +14 2.2% play 

Temple +8.5 2.2% play

My formulas and algorithim like Temple here at +8.5, and this is a team that is on my buy list this season.  EJ Warmer is a quality QB, and Temple return 16 starters.  These two schools are relatively close by and this game means a lot more to Temple while Rutgers is in a bit of a sandwich game sitting fat and happy after dominating Northwestern in their Big 10 opener, and they have another P5 opponent on deck. 

Eastern Michigan +20.5 2.2% play 

Alabama -7 3.3% play 

Nick Saban first two weeks of the season is 19-9 ATS, and with a cup cake the first week you bet he’s been planning for this game all off season.  This is a very low spread for Alabama who I feel will have something to prove against what is supposed to be an up and coming Texas team, a team that took Alabama to the brink a year ago.  I’m just not a buyer on Ewers at QB for Texas. I think he’s going to have a bad game.  Texas was aided a season ago by 15 Alabama turnovers, which were a hidden 100 yards, and I don’t see that happening again.

Boise State / UCF O60 3.3% play 

Northwestern +1 2.2% play 

Nebraska +3 3.3% play

Matt Rhule as an underdog is a buy spot in college football.  I believe he will have his defense well prepared for the now super hyped Colorado team, which now has to play with a bit of pressure now that they are ranked after defeating TCU on the road a week ago.  Nebraska meanwhile went toe to toe and should have beaten Minnesota last week as a 7 point dog and out performed their expectation.  I expect Nebraska to be able to run the ball and control this game, and play much better defense thant TCU who lost a ton of players from last year's CFB Playoff team. 

Ball State +42 1.1% Free Play 

Georgia has the SEC opener on deck, and last week was their home opener so I really have question their motivation to run it up here as their main focus is winning the National Championship for a 3rd consecutive year.  This is a ton of points, and Ball State had a misleading final against Kentucky. I look for them to hang within the number. 

Kansas / Illinois Over 56.5 2.2% play

Illinois brought over Altmyer from Ole Miss, and he adds a new dynamic to the Illinois offense that we did not see last year.  In his first game he showed he is a threat to run the ball.  Illinois offense should be more balanced this year, and they'll go up agaisnt one of the worst defenses a season ago in Kansas who was 121st in EPA run defense, and 125th in stuff rate.  Illinois should be able to be ahead of the chains all night long behind the strength of the line led by 2 NFL caliber lineman.

The defense lost 3 NFL players in the secondary and their defnesive coordinator.  We saw Tulane put up 400+ yards on this defense that was elite last year.  I don't think the market has made enough of an adjustment yet and Kansas offense was #3 in explosive plays, #1 in EPA/play and Jalon Daniels returns and I think we should see some points on Friday night. 

Florida State +2 2.2% play

South Carolina / North Carolina U63.5 2.2% play 

A lot of hype with both of these future NFL QB's, but I have a lot of questions about the offensive line on South Carolina side, and I think this line is inflated based on how South Carolina finished last year, and North Carolina will be breaking in a new offensive coordinator as well.  I just expect more of a dog fight, and not a high scoring affair.  This total opened at 60 and has ticked up to 63.5 was 64, and I think it's a good spot to back the under. 

Penn State / West Virginia Under 49 3.3% play

Both teams are breaking in new QB's here, and West Virginia is breaking in yet another new offensive coordinator, which will be a change of their offensive identity going from the air raid to a run first scheme.  Both defenses are veteran laden, and I expect Penn State to lean on their talented group of RB's.  The new rule changes also having a say on the total here as that clock should be moving throughout.  I think this total is a bit inflated not factoring that in as well as the fact that both these offenses won't be close to what they were a season ago. 

Baylor / Texas State Under 60.5 2.2% play

I think this total is a bit inflated because GJ Kinne who likes to run an up tempo takes over at Texas State, and he's got two power 5 transfer QBs who did not have success in their SEC Stops, and an offensive line that lacks experience going up agaisnt a defensive minded Baylor team.  Baylor is going to have issues passing the ball this year, and will lean heavily on their running game.  I can see Baylor putting up some points, but then shutting it down in the second half with a talented Utah team coming to town next week. 

Cal -6 2.2% play

Another game I really don’t buy into the line move.  What do we really know about North Texas, who has a new coaching staff to warrant a 3 point line move against a Power 5 Football program led by a veteran coach in Justin Wilcox.  What do we really know about Cal who will have 50 new players on their roster and new offensive scheme?.  Now this line is under a TD for the past few days and down to -6, I’m a buyer.  

I could be totally wrong, and the moves that Wilcox has made could be out of desperation or they could actually work.  When everyone is down on a team/program that seems to be the time to jump in and buy, and I like the TCU transfer at QB in Sam Jackson, along with the transfers on the offensive line, and Jake Spavital as the OC.  Sure Spavital had massive failure as a HC at Texas State, but we have seen it over and over again where a quality coordinator fail running an entire program, returning to the coordinator role to have more success.  Spavital is young enough with a ton to prove and learn.

Pudue -3.5 2.2% play

I don’t really understand the 2.5 line move form 6 open here.  What do we really know about these two teams?  There are tons of transfers on the Purdue side both teams will work in a new transfer QB, and I think Purdue has the better of the two in Hudson Card from Texas who just has more experience than MIke Keene form UCF.  Fresno was a below average team without Jake Haener at QB, and they will also lose their top WR and RB, while Purdue is breaking in a new HC in Ryan Walters the defensive coordinator from Illinois.  I like the hires (Graham Harrell OC) and the work they did in the transfer portal, and the line move of 2.5 with Purdue being at home where they typically have an advantage.

Boston College -8 2.2% play 

This is another situation of a line move I don’t agree with moving from 10.5 at open to -8.  Boston College has a lot to prove this year, and I think it starts in week 1.  Jeff Hafley will surely be on the hot seat if they don’t play better than expectations.  Hafley was one of those coachest that a lot of sharp bettors wanted to back the past few years and people have definitely stopped drinking the kool-aid, but that is the exact time I want to jump in.

There is reason for optimism with this BC offense as their offensive line has improved and returns a total of 127 starts.  We saw Emmett Morehead take control of the team over the last 4 games and played quite well at time.  The receivers are athletic and have talent to help their QB against a NIU secondary that will be vulnerable this year. 

Central MIchigan / Michigan State Under 45 2.2% play 

Utah -5 2.2% play 

The line opened 9 or 9.5, and has dropped since the news broke of Cam Rising being out, and now you are seeing this # tick back up with all the Florida +9 trying to hedge out and get a nice middle at a TD.  Personally, I don't think any one player is worth this many points, and when you factor in Bryson Barnes experience in big moments when Rising has been out I think he is more than capable of playing well.  The team has also been practicing with Barnes and were probably pretty aware he was going to get the start.

I think Florida is a bit over rated again, and I have serious questions about them going on the road to face a tough Utah team at elevation to open the season with Graham Mertz as their QB.  Utah also will have revenge on their mind after Florida upset them a season ago.  Utah returns 9 defensive starters and have a very good home field advantage. 

FIU / La Tech Over 57.5 2.2% play 

Navy / Notre Dame Over 50 2.2% play 

Georgia / TCU Under 64 4.4% NCAAF POD

This total seems high to me when you factor in these are two run first teams who play at a slower pace.  Georgia ranks 115th in seconds per play, and TCU ranks 81st.  Georgia the last two years have allowed 16 points per game over 9 total games when facing an offense that is top 50 in passing offense and rushing offense.  Their last two games they gave up 41 and 30 however, but I think that is giving us an inflated total here tonight.  Same thing goes for TCU who benefited from two pick sixes in the game against Michigan and then they played lose and gave up explosive plays which led to a highs coring game.  There were several red flags about the Michigan’s run defense that I thought TCU would exploit that they won’t be able to against Georgia’s run defense here tonight.  TCU’s offense lives off explosives, but Georgia has always done a good job stopping explosive plays.  I think TCU’s defense can hold their own a little bit in this game with a banged up Darnell Washington that’s a huge loss if he’s not 100%.  At the end of the day.  This is the best pass defense that Georgia has faced since Kentucky who held them to 16 points.  TCU runs the 3-3-5 which will invite Georgia to run the ball and keep the clock moving.  TCU average opponent defense ranks 70th, and while they put up a ton of points on Michigan last week it came in unusual fashion of large plays, two pick sixes etc. This is the most complete defense they’ve seen, and it will be tough to score points particularly in the red zone where Georgia has only allowed 36% TD rate.

TCU +14 2.2% play

Penn State pk 4.4% play 

I have some serious questions about Utah being able to move the ball consistently and put up points in the Rose Bowl. They ranked 19th in ypp, but that came against an average ypp defense ranking 97.8.  They’ll be without their TE Kinkaid, who had the majority of the targets from Cam Rising and going up against a top 10 defense.  They did not face a top 35 run defense all year, but faced 7 bottom 35 run defenses.  Utah has also enjoyed quite the home field advantage over the years that they will not enjoy in this game.  Utah ranked 80th in % off possessions ending in a TO, while Penn State ranked 14th in forcing them. I have Penn State as the more complete team and we are getting points.  Penn State playing without their top corner Joey Porter, but the loss of both Utah’s TE’s are a huge deal.

Penn State’s offense is led by Sean Clifford, a 5 year veteran who would like nothing more than to go out a Rose Bowl winner.  He’s really enjoyed a quality season and has taken care of the ball just 1 turnover worth play in 93 passing attempts against pressure and Penn State 32nd in sack % allowed.  Utah’s best cover corner out in this game, and should allow Penn State to move the ball.  Utah’s defense far better last year against Ohio State team playing without some of their skill position gave up 48 points.  Utah’s defense last year ranked 14th in ypp against an average offense ranking 46.  This year they rank 73rd against an average opponent ranking 44.6.  Last year they had a top 50 run defense as well as a top 50 pass defense.  Utah was also +1.5 ypp vs. an average opponent +0.83, while this year they are +0.9 vs. an average worse opponent -0.025.  Penn State +1.5 vs. +0.1.

USC / TULANE OVER 64 3.3% PLAY

While I really want to be on Tulane here it’s a game the G5 have not been able to get over the hump.  We saw UCF and Cincinnati just not quite able to get the W, and I think those teams were more talented than this Tulane team.  You are also paying a premium on Tulane at under a field goal.  I like Tulane to score some points here and will be taking the over. Willie Fritz is an excellent coach and his team lost by only 5 to open up last season against Lincoln Riley’s Oklahoma team as a 31 point dog.  There is no quit in his team and they lost 35-40.  However, a lot of that was in garbage time, but I expect Tulane and their QB Michael Pratt who had 3 passing TD’s and 0 INT in that game to draw confidence from it.  They rank top 30 in passing and rushing offense, and should give USC defense and an extremely over rated DC, Alex Grinch issues all day.  Honestly, I don’t understand how/why Grinch gets all this credit.  USC gave up 40+ twice to Utah, 37 to Arizona, 35 to California, 45 to UCLA, and believe me some of these teams left points on the table, but if California can score 45, Tulane should be in good position to score into the 30’s here.  Grinch’s defense have not turned the corner in bowl games and they have regularly given up 30+ points.

On the flip side this is easily the most talented offense that Tulane has faced.  They gave up 28 to Memphis, 38 to UCF then 28 to UCF.  Tulane really hasn’t faced an offense that can beat you on the ground, and also through the air with a mobile QB.  USC ranked top 10 in both epa passing offense and epa run offense.  For instance, SMU #6 IN EPA Pass offense, but 104th in epa run offense.  UCF 13th in epa pass offense, but 57th in epa run offense.  It’s hard to imagine a scenario that USC does not get into the 30’s and even 40’s with a healthy Caleb Williams.  They’re missing two offensive linemen, but Caleb seems to be able to move around the pocket, and make magical plays when needed and Tulane 98th in defensive sack %.  Both these teams are top 50 in explosive offense rank, so I expect to see some big plays at an enclosed stadium where the Dallas Cowboys play.  I also love that Caleb Williams probably has a chip on his shoulder from how PAC 12 Championship went, and the criticism for having F*** UTAH painted on his nails.  He’s coming back next year and this game is momentum towards the 2023 season and I’m expecting offense.

Miss State -3 3.3% play 

Illinois was a very nice story this year, but they lose their star DC Ryan Walters to Purdue coaching job, and a bunch of opt outs followed including their main offensive weapon, Chase Brown.  Miss State is obviously going to play with a bunch of passion here to honor Mike Leach, and I think they have some advantages.  Illinois ranked #1 in pass defense, but it came against an average 87th ranked pass offense.  The three occasions they faced pass first offenses, Indiana, Purdue, and Michigan State they lost all 3 of those games.  Those 3 teams don't have the defense that Miss State has, which ranks 49th, against an average opponent 48th.  Purdue was the best one and they rank 78th in ypp vs. 76 opponents.  Miss State went 2-2 vs. top 30 pass defenses, but the two losses were against Alabama and Georgia arguably the top 2 teams in the country.  Miss State the deeper team who I believe will come with more effort and really shut down this Illinois offense, and create some turnovers.  Illinois 73rd in % of TO's per possession, and Miss state 50th on the defensive side. Illinois faced just 3 teams in the top 52 in defensive TO%, and had 7 turnovers in those games, only Iowa also had a top pass defense, and while Illinois won they only put up 9 points.  Lastly, Miss State ranked 4th in special teams while Illinois ranked 75th another big advantage here for this game. 

Ohio State / Georgia Over 62 - 4.4% play 

Ohio State +6 2.2% play 

TCU +8 2.2% PLAY

Both offenses will have success today, but they both play at a slower pace and I do believe this total is pretty high, and spot on for this game.  Michigan’s defense ranked #2 in ypp has gotten there playing a very weak average opponent offense of 87th.  The last two years they have only faced 6 top 50 offenses and their defense allowed 27.5ppg in those games.  TCU ranks 18th in ypp and their offense is very much legit ranking top 25 in rushing ypc but also QB rating.  Not many Big Ten offenses are going to come at you the way TCU does.  TCU ranks 5th in explosive offense and I believe there will be opportunities on big plays down field. TCU has 3 WR that are 6’4 or taller, while Michigan’s starting CB’s are 5’10 and 6’0. 

Michigan should be able to run the ball against TCU’s defense, and should get explosives here as TCU ranks 99th in explosive defense, but I’m not going to overreact to what Michigan did against Ohio State as they rank 100th in explosive plays.  When TCU played the most comparable offense, Texas, TCU had their best defensive effort on the road as a 7 point dog holding the very talented Texas backs to 1.27 ypc. 

It appears Michigan has a much more dominant advantage in this game by the #’s, but where they have the significant advantages (defense) it has come against significantly less competition.  TCU’s defense which ranks 45th in ypc has face an average opponent offense of 58th, which is 30 spots better on average.  IF TCU’s defense faced 87th ranked offense on average, how much better would their defense be?  This game is going to come down to stopping Donovan Edwards, and a mobile JJ McCarthy, and forcing JJ MCCarthy to beat them.  McCarthy did it against Ohio State on a couple of long plays, but can he do that again?

I’ve gone against TCU many times this year and they are in the role they like to be in as dogs playing with a chip on their shoulder and emulating their QB Max Duggan.  There were several plays in the Ohio State game that Michigan got lucky, and I just can’t get over the fact that this is driving this number up a bit giving Michigan far too much credit.  This is not the first time Sonny Dykes is facing off against Jim Harbough.  2018, SMU’s 106th ranked offense at the time went to Michigan as a 37 point dog against Michigan’s #4 defense.  They put up 3 TD’s  in the game and were only -115 total yards in the game.  2007-09 Dykes was the OC at Arizona and all 3 match ups with Stanford were decided by 5 points or less with the last team scoring 43 points in 2009.

Alabama -7 3.3% play

We need to address the monkey in the room that is transfer portal and opt outs.  Alabama some how has gottent heir big name players to play in this game, which is amazin for college football. I share NIck Saban's opinion on the NIL, transfer portal, and opt outs. Finish the season with you team.  I'm not sure what this is teaching our youth these days, but that's a conversation for another day.  I love that the players that are here have bought into Alabama's HC and culture.  The players that left don't seem to be the top tier players that were coachable and fit in with what Saban wanted to do either, which is the reason they are transfering away from Alabama.

Aabama has the #4 ranked ypp defense, and Kansas State has struggled against top 25 defenses.  This season they went 1-2 scoring 10, 10, and 27 points in those games with their lone win coming in a 10-9 victory over an offensively challenged Iowa State team.  Even with 12 scholarship players leaving via transfer portal this is a loaded team.  Even if some of the regular starters sit in the second half the talent gap is there.  Kansas State usually enjoys a coaching edge, but not in this game. 

Alabama will have their Heisman QB Bryce Young in this game and I could argue this team wants to make a statement.  They were left out of the college football playoff for a team that got beat by Kansas State.  I was in the minority when I felt like Alabama should have made the jump. Their only two losses were on the final play of the game in two road games.  This game being played in New Oreans will have an Alabama crowd edge and I think Alabama dominates and creates some momentum into 2023. 

Wyoming +3 -120 3% play 

Ohio, a completely different team without their QB.  CJ Harris took over and it's very clear and evident he can not move the ball consistently through the air making the team one dimensional.  Craig Bohl and the Wyoming defense which ranks 43rd in epa pass defense will be able to stack the box and slow this Ohio offense down.  On the flip side we are getting value here with Wyoming who without some of their RB's, but if there is one position I'd like a team to lose an opt out it is RB.  They still have their QB Andrew Peasley who is also a runner, and Ohio which ranks 87th against the run, and 112th in epa pass defense will allow Wyoming to control the game.

The Cowboys are coming off a 30-0 loss at Fresno State last month to end the regular season.  I'm so thankful that we got a bowl opportunity and for us to get this bad taste out of our mouth and play better," Wyoming coach Craig Bohl said after the loss to Fresno State. He also goes up against his former OC at North Dakota State Tim Albin who is coaching in his first bowl game.  Huge edge in coaching to Bohl here, which could make all the difference. 

Maryland / NC State Under 46 2.2% play

Both teams come into this game with top 50 defenses.  NC State vs. a top 50 defense averaged only 17.75 points per game, and 2 games came when Devin Leary was their QB.  Maryland vs. a top 50 defense averages just 16.75 points per game.  Maryland will be playing without 3 of their top 4 WR in this game as well so points are going to be at a premium.  When we look at NC State vs. non top 70 success rate offenses, Maryland ranks 73rd, they have allowed just 18.2 ppg.  Maryland vs. bad offenses has allowed just 16.75 ppg.  When you add it all up it seems like this total is at least a field goal too high.  This game will be played outdoors on grass not turf, which also could create some issues as Maryland, the team more likely to get points has gone under the total in 9 of their last 13 games on grass.

Washington / Texas Over 66.5 3.3% play

I love the over here as both of these defensive weaknesses are the pass defenses.  I think the total is lower mainly because Texas without their top 2 RB in this game, which is their offensive strength and Quinn Ewers has looked lost out there at multiple points this season, but the extra practices, and going up against a bad pass defense should help him.  Texas is also going to feel the pressure to score points, and they have been quite success vs. bad pass defenses averaging 42 points against non top 60 units and 48 vs. non top 100.  Washington ranks 118th.  Texas also averaging 46.4 ppg vs. non top 75 success rate defenses, Washington is 91st.  Texas defense has been very good, but the one area they struggle was against pass first offenses.  They only faced 4 teams who passed first, but they went 1-3 and gave up +9ppg compared to season average against those foes at 30ppg.

Washington faced a top 50 ypp offense just 4 times all year and gave up 40, 45, 39, and 34 points in those games.  Again, Texas could slow it down if they have the lead, but I think they need to know what they have in Ewers headed to the off season, and they will feel the pressure to score points with Washington’s offense on the other side.

Both offenses play in the top 50 in seconds per play, and have put up a lot of points when their opponents also play top 50 in pace.  Texas put up 34, 49, 34, and 41 points when their opponent was top 50 in pace, meaning more possessions overall.  Washington put up 45, 39, 40, 32, 51, and 49 when their opponent was top 50 in pace.   

It also does not hurt that both head coaches make their money on being offensive minded.  This game is in Alamo Bowl where Texas will have a home field advantage, and have played well in previous years.  I think it is an important game for Texas and Steve Sarkasan.  Even if Texas game plays well on defense we have seen them let teams back in the game, and even when UCLA was blowing Washington out we saw Washington score some late TD’s to get to 32 points. 

Ole Miss -3.5 3.3% play

All I’ve heard is that Texas Tech is the more motivated team, and Ole Miss isn’t motivated, but this Ole Miss team did not have any opt outs, and will be full go for this game.  Ole Miss is the more talented team they were +1 ypp compared to Tech -0.8 ypp.  Ole Miss is a pretty easy team to handicap to win they have to run and stop the run.  In their wins they are +1 ypc, and in their losses they give up +1 ypc.  Texas Tech is a pass first team ranked 83rd in ypc, and their defense ranks 95th.  Tech has really struggled vs top rushing teams and particular teams with a mobile QB, which Ole Miss has.  They lost 28-37 to Kansas State, Adrian Martinez had 171 rushing yards, 31-41 to Oklahoma State and gave up 56 rushing yards to Spencer Sanders, lost 24-34 to TCU, they beat Kansas, but Kansas was without their starting QB Jalon Daniels.  Expect Jaxon Dart to have a good game here.

Texas Tech has been a trendy bet for many people and they have rewarded going 7-5 ATS, but I think this is still a major step up against an SEC program that is motivated to play in this game.  Tech needs to be able to throw the ball and on the surface it looks like they may be able to, but Ole Miss pass rush which ranks 26th should give Tech some issues here.  Tech ranks 81st in protecting the QB, and they haven’t faced a top 60 pass rush.  This could be an issue when you look at the fact that Tech is 111th in first down offense.  Ole Miss 62nd in epa pass defense, and Tech just 1-4 vs. top 70 epa pass defenses on the year. Ole Mis closest opponent to Texas Tech was Texas A&M who they beat on the road as a -3 favorite.   A&M’s #s are a bit better than Tech and I just feel like we are getting value with Ole Miss as a small favorite.   

Kansas / Arkansas Over 68.5 2.2% play 

Arkansas down a bevy of defensive starters, and will bring in a largely inexperienced group without their DC Barry Odom.  This is not a great sign for a defense that really struggled going up against a top offensive mind in Lance Leipold.  Kansas offense was top offense in passing and running behind QB Jalon Daniels.  Their numbers would be even better if Daniels did not miss some times.  I don’t really see how Arkansas is going to be able to stop this offense.  The weather is a little concerning with 20mph gusts, but these are two run first teams going against two bad run defenses, which Kansas averaged 40 ppg vs. teams who were bad overall and very bad against the run. Arkansas is outside the top 100 in both categories.

Arkansas offense is largely intact and most importantly KJ Jefferson is coming back for this game and next season.  They have their OL and top 3 RB, and an emerging star at WR all playing in this game.  Kansas also a very bad defense, and Arkansas when facing a bad overall defense, and a bad run defense like Kansas put up 40+ points and went 4-0.  I’d like to take Arkansas in this game particularly because there does not seem to be a soul out there that think they can win, and I would not really like to doubt KJ Jefferson.  However, I think the better/smarter play is the over. I think the questions with the weather have kept the total low enough, and I don’t think the weather will impact these two elite rushing offenses.  Arkansas also one of the faster paced teams in the nation.  Should be a fun game in the Liberty Bowl.  

UCF +3.5 2.2% PLAY

I have my concerns about Plumlee being 100% healthy for this one according to many out there he may not be, but I think there has been plenty of time for him to heal up before this game. I think we are getting value here when we look at these two teams they have 2 common opponents.  UCF was a -23.5 favorite vs. Temple, and a -21 favorite vs. Georgia Tech, while Duke was a 9.5 favorite vs. Temple and a 3.5 points favorite against Georgia Tech (LOST), and UCF was a 5.5 point favorite against ACC foe, Louisville.  Louisville metrically is better and would be a 2-3 point favorite on a neutral vs. Duke.  Duke, in their last game of the year was +3 vs. Wake, a very similar team to UCF by the #’s, and certainly not 6 points better than UCF.  Now, UCF does have their leading receiver, and top defensive player Baptise out for this game, but I still think there is enough talent to be in this game.

First off the ACC was down this year, and maybe the reason Duke had such a successful year.  AAC in bowl games is actually 24-27 -1.2ppg vs. ACC.  Mike Elko was named coach of the year, but Gus Malzahn is very familiar with his defenses from his time at A&M when Auburn went 2-1 against them.  The key will be stopping the run, and Duke went 1-3 vs. top 50 ypp offenses this year, and 6-1 vs. teams with an average ypp offense ranking 111.4.  Duke’s defense is not this juggernaut, and UCF should have plenty of success in this game.  Dukes 21st ranked ypc defense has faced an average rushing ypc offense ranking 97th.  They only faced 3 teams in the top 80 in rushing ypc and lost all 3 games, Kansas, North Carolina, and Pitt.  Speaking of Kansas and North Carolina, they both have mobile QB’s like UCF and both Drake Maye and Jalon Daniels had 70+ yards rushing, both those teams also have bad defenses and UCF’s defense a little better.  All in all there is enough here for me to think I’m getting value on UCF  at +3.5.

East Carolina -7 2.2% play

Honestly how motivated is Coastal Carolina in this game with their head coach gone, their star QB Grayson McCall leaving via transfer portal.  McCall will play here, but he won’t have his starting Center, and I don’t know, but if someone on my team was leaving and only coming to play this game to increase his stock against a poor defense I don’t know if I’m going to play my heart out.  With that said I feel more confident stating that East Carolina who is looking for their first bowl win under Mike Houston will be motivated.  Coastal NO SHOWED in their last two games against James Madison and Troy, and it’s very possible the same happens here without their head coach.  East Carolina comes from the better conference as the AAC is 40-7 vs. the Sun Belt +14.1ppg all time.  I think East Carolina will be able to put up a lot of points and don’t really know how Coastal will stop this balanced offense that ranks top 50 in both rushing and passing offense.

Memphis -7 -115 2.5% play

Memphis has lost close games to the good teams on the schedule and beat up on some of the bad teams.  Utah State was -0.8 ypp differential this season, while Mmephis was +0.1.  Memphis went 4-1 vs. teams with a -0.2 YPP or more winning those games by 16, 21, 12, and 24 while losing on the road to Miss State.  They also went 4-1 vs. non top 80 offenses, and Utah State ranks 103rd in ypp offense, and they are a run first offense which will be without their top 2 runnig backs, while Memphis is 24th in stopping the run.  Utah State will hae to pass the ball here, but they rank 88th in QB rating, 116th in epa passing offense, and only 48% in red zone TD conversions -17.37% differential.  Utah State also has had a massive turnover issue ranking 115th on offense and 114th on defense. 

Utah State has not faced many top passing offense, but they lost both by double digits.  Memphis ranks 48th in QB rating, and should be able to move the ball here.  They rank 42nd in success rate, and I think they'll have enough success to win and cover the #.  The big question is if they are motivated, as they get to go back to play on SMU's field, a game they lost 31-34 to close out the season.  I think they'd love to close out the season with a win here to build momentum for next season.

New Mexico State +3.5 3.3% play

Both of these teams are lucky to be in a bowl, but it’s more surprising that New Mexico State is here, and you have to give Jerry Kill credit.  Kill is also 16-10-1 ATS vs. the MAC over his career.  New Mexico State ranks 100th in ypp vs. an average opp defense ranking 65.1, while Bowling Green is 108th vs. 65.5.  Pretty even, despite New Mexico State running ball 60%, and Bowling Green throwing 46%.  These are two different style offenses, but I give the edge to New Mexico State who really put up some points down the stretch and have some confidence coming into this game.  Bowling Green’s defense ranks 84th in ypp and that’s against an average opponent offense ranking 82. While New Mexico State ranks 43rd, vs. a 92.5.  New Mexico’s defensive strength is the pass defense, which is what Bowling Green likes to do.

New Mexico State played Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota, while Bowling Green played UCLA and Miss State so both had challenging schedules.  The MAC has played well so far in bowls, but I’m not trusting them here as a favorite in what should be a very tight game.  New Mexico State has a big edge in finishing drives and Bowling Green really struggles in red zone defense.  New Mexico State +8.4% on the season in red zone TD%, while Bowling Green is -14.48%.  Both teams player slower tempo making points more valuable, and I think New Mexico who average 5.5 ypc in wins, and 3.39 ypc will be able to run the ball against Bowling Green who ranked 79th in epa run defense, against a weak epa run offense schedule ranking 84th.

Bowling Green beat two bowl teams all year, and both by single possessions, and both games have huge asterisks.  Marshall win by 3 they were +3 TO margin and also got Marshall the week after they upset Notre Dame.  Toledo they beat 42-35, while Toledo was resting up for the MAC Championship and had nothing to play for.  New Mexico State did not have many impressive wins either, but I like the fact that they closed their season winning 5 of 6 and scored 49+ points in 3 of the last 4.  Jerry Kill is the better coach and would like to get a bowl win.

Lafayette +7 2.2% play 

I certainly do not trust Dana Holgorsen in a bowl game he’s 2-7 ATS, but for some reason they are favored by more than a TD.  Houston has the better YPP differential, but vs. a weaker schedule, and the Sun Belt has been performing well in bowl season.  Houston will have Nathaniel Dell for the bowl game at WR, but how much effort, or how much of the game is he going to play?  Lafayette has some opt outs as well, but Houston’s defense has not been good all season and have given up an average of 30.6 points per game against teams outside the top 75 in yards per play.  Houston is going to give up some points here.

Lafayette’s defense I think can keep them in this game.  They rank 22nd in QB rating defense, 50th in ypc allowed, and Houston has only faced 4 teams in the top 90 in QB rating defense they went 2-2 against those teams and the two wins came by 1 and 2 points.  The only time they faced a top 50 pass defense they lost at home by 3.  Lafayette has gone 0-4 against top 60 passing offenses, but 3 of those 4 losses were by 4, 3, and 6 points, with the lone blowout loss coming against a Power 5 foe in Florida State. 

Air Force +3.5 2.2% play

We will find out real quick who wants to be here, as it’s going to be 20 degrees with 20 mph winds in Fort Worth.  One thing is for sure the service academies always get up to play Power 5 schools and bowl games. I can’t say for sure if Baylor is motivated for this game after a disappointing season going 6-6, and playing in their state of Texas at TCU’s stadium is nothing to get excited about. Dave Aranda also fired the DC and special teams coordinator, which is not ideal to be short handed going up against the triple option.  To make matters worse Baylor lineman Mazzcua who started 11 games and is 330lb is in the transfer portal and will miss.  Air Force had a weak schedule, and their glaring weakness is in pass coverage, but I question whether or not Baylor will be able to pass consistently in this weather and they still at the heart of it are a run first team anyway, which Air Force ranks 19th in ypc defense, and 55th in epa defense.  Baylors run defense is good from a ypc perspective, but they went 1-4 when giving up 150 yards, and they 2-4 vs. top 50 rushing attacks giving up 30.33 ppg in those games and 1 of the 2 wins was by only 3 points.  I really have these two teams about even, and we are getting over a field goal in a low total with bad wind that will favor Air Force’s style, and they have a far better special teams unit as well.

Western Kentucky +4 2.2% play / Western Kentucky +160 1% bonus

Western Kentucky has a defensive player opting out of the portal coming back to play, and their star QB Austin Reed opting out of transfer portal and coming back to play so this game clearly matters to Western Kentucky is the way I’m taking it.  C-USA has not done great vs. the Sun Belt, but South Alabama has never won a bowl game, and we saw this style offense from Western Kentucky put 59 points up on Sun Belt App State team last year that ranked 17th in ypp.  Western Kentucky will be without a couple OL, but they run this hurry up that should even things out for the defensive line.  South Alabama’s defense that was elite only played an average of 80th ranked ypp, the 3 offenses they faced that were similar put up 31, 32, and then Old Dominion who is a pass first team that runs tempo put up 20.  South Alabama also has to go up against a top defense as Western Kentucky’s defense is very under rated ranking 36th in ypp.  South Alabama just 6, 27, and 20 points against top 50 ypp defenses.

These two have a common opponent in Troy at home.  South Alabama was 3 point favorite, while Western Kentucky was -5.5.  Both teams lost but Western Kentucky put up 27 points, and were +55 yards +0.1 ypp, while South Alabama was -0.5ypp and -20 yards.  Western Kentucky’s offense the past two years has had no problems putting up points against top defenses.  I mentioned Troy this year, and App State last year, but they scored 53 on Marshall last year as well as 48 on a very good MTSU defense a season ago.  I have these two teams very even, and the oddsmakers actually had Western Kentucky -2.5 on a neutral looking at the Troy spread so there is no way I can get to +4 here.  I still have Western Kentucky as the better team they had a better ypp against tougher competition.

Toledo vs Liberty Under 54 3.3% play 

Eastern Michigan +4.5 2.2% play

I think this line is just a tad inflated because there is a stigma about the MAC Conference, and San Jose State clearly has a fabulous QB in Chad Cordeiro, but the MWC is 7-8 vs. the MAC.  SJSU is 1-2 vs. the MAC and when we are looking at similar teams to Eastern Michigan that San Jose State has played we look at Utah State they were +1.5 on the road and lost, SD state they were -1.5 on the road and lost.  Eastern Michigan is probably between those two teams from a # perspective, but they have actually played extremely well on the road and even have a win against a PAC 12 team on the road over Arizona State.  For Eastern Michigan, San Jose State is probably a slightly weaker Toledo team, a team they lost by 3 to and were a +4 home dog.  I think Toledo -3 on a neutral vs. SanJOse

San Jose State is going to be easy to plan for as they have a completely one dimension offense with their QB.  They rank 107th in ypc vs. an opponent ypc defense ranking 87th. Eastern Michigan’s defensive strength is vs. the pass where they rank 47th in opposing QB rating, and San Jose has gone 3-4 vs. top 60 QB Rating defenses.  San Jose State only turned the ball over 7 times all year, but they still somehow went 0-7 ATS to close the season.  Eastern Michigan only 2 TO’s over their last 5 games.

Eastern Michigan wants to establish the run, but they don’t need to completely rely on it as they have gone 3-3 vs. top 50 run defenses.  They actually have better ranks passing the ball, and would do better sticking to that game plan here, but it makes them harder to prepare for in my opinion.  Eastern Michigan also has a massive advantage in special teams ranking 25th, while San Jose State ranks 131st.

BYU + 4.5 2.2% play

BYU should be able to run the ball in this game with SMU just being absolutely horrible at stopping the run ranking 123rd in the county this year.  BYU will likely be without their starting QB Jalen Hall, but I think if anything that puts a huge question mark for preparation for SMU coaching staff, which  has struggled on defense all season long.  BYU key has been running the ball the last two years they average +1 ypc in their wins and when going up against a run defense 90th or worse they are 11-0 score 30+ points in 9 of those games and I’m sure if I look back further that trend continues.  SMU went just 1-3 this season with rushing offense ranking in the top 40, and gave up 63 points to Houston who ranks 42nd.  If SMU can just magically stop the run then this play is in big trouble, cut I don’t think they can.  SMU’s offense should be able to score points here too, but they will be without their top receiver in Rice, and that loss is a big deal here.  The Mountain West is also 6-2 +12.1 points per game vs. AAC in bowl games. The weather is going to be in the low 30’s and this game will be played at elevation, which is something that benefits BYU players as well.

Fresno -4 2.2% play  

Fresno State’s Jake Haener gets up for these games against P5, something about playing with a chip on his shoulder.  Washington State will be without 3 of their top 4 WR, both coordinators, and typically this style offense does not do well with a long break.  Fresno State just played a mobile QB when they faced Fresno State in the Championship, and they dominated winning and avenging their only loss to a team that ranked top 50 in run and pass defense.  Washington State ranks 41st in epa run defense and 45th in epa pass defense, but they’ll be without several defensive starters here as well.  When they have had to face a top passing offense they have gone 0-4 giving up 36.5 ppg, while facing a top pass defense they only managed 10 points and 14 points and Fresno has both.  Fresno has gotten hose results from facing G5 teams, but this team has more than hold their own stepping up to play the power 5, and this being a bowl game against a depleted Washington State team they’ll be motivated to win by a TD or more.

Louisville / Cinci Under 42.5 3.3% play.

Malik Cunningham opted out of this game and without Cunningham there is a huge downgrade.  There are some other offensive players that have opted out here on both sides, and this game is being played at Fenway where the weather on Firday is going to be less than ideal.  Cinci's offense struggled down the stretch, and will be without their Center, TE and Tre Tucker at WR.  You also have Scott Satterfield who left Louisville to coach at Cincinnati. 

UAB -11 2.2% PLAY

First of all since 2018 in group of 5 vs. group of 5 bowl games, the team that had at least 0.5 ypp differential went 28-12 ATS.  UAB +1.1, while Miami Ohio -0.7. In 2018 UAB vs. Northern Illinois a really similar match up with Northern Illinois -0.3, and UAB +1.1, and UAB won 37-13.  C-USA has also been the far better conference going 54-39 all time vs. the MAC.  I have major concerns about Miami Ohio in this game and how they are going to move the football.  Aveon Smith took over for Brett Gabbert at QB, and he really is just a running QB, as he is completing just 48% of his passes for a 9/5 TD/INT ratio.  That’s something UAB can game plan for in my opinion and Miami Ohio ranks 115th in ypp, UAB’s defense is down this year, but that’s because the have faced on average 50th rank ypp offense.  There is proof it’s really about the C-USA offenses getting better, because this defense over the past 4 years faced an average YPP offense ranking 91st, 87th, 81st, 68th, and now 50th.  Here they are facing a bad offense UAB has won all of their games by double digits.

UAB will be plenty motivated here as they are playing hard for Bryan Vincent in his last game.  UAB hired Trent Dilfer, but it’s not gone unnoticed that the players had an open letter to administration in support of Vincent.  I don’t see them taking their foot off the gas here, and their offense ranks 12th in ypp with a really balanced attack ranking 8th in epa run offense with the nations leading rusher McBride, and 20th epa passing offense.  Miami Ohio’s defense is solid with a strength against the run, but the more we look at them they have faced just two teams in the top 60 in yards per play, Cincinnati and Ohio and they lost 17-38, and 21-37 and they were +2 TO margin in those games.  I like UAB’s offense to be able to put up plenty of points in this game.

Navy -138 5.5% MAX NCAAF POD

This is one of my favorite games of the season.  It’s a game where every inch and yard and play matters so much.  I have been able to do a great job winning this game in the past, and look to continue that here again.  The last two years Army has been a -7 and -7.5 favorite, but this year it moves back to Navy being a favorite and rightfully so.  My handicap will be similar to last year’s +7.5 5.5% MAX winner in that I believe Navy has taken another step forward in improving.  So much to this match up comes down to the play in the trenches, and once again Navy has the better run defense by far.  Navy comes in ranking 16th in ypc run defense while Army comes in at 118th, and Navy has faced a tougher schedule with Notre Dame on their schedule and an opponent average ypp diff of +0.28, compared to Army’s -0.26. 

I like to look at an average offense defensive line stats looking at adjusted line yards, power success sand stuff rate.  This year Navy is the better team which was not the case the past 3 years yet Navy still managed to win 2 of the 3 games probably because their #’s were always a little worse from playing in a tougher conference.  In 2019 Navy averaged 80th, and Army rated 20th, In 2020 Navy 75th, Army 31st, and in 2021 Navy 48th, Army 23.16, but this year Navy 38.5, and Army 60th.  Navy is top 10 in all defensive line yard categories.  Their defensive coordinator Brian Newbery has given up a total of 3 TD’s to Army in 3 games.

Lastly, these games often come down to turnovers, and special teams.  Navy has the advantage in both.  They have a very strong advantage in forcing and limiting turnovers ranking 38th in % of possessions ending in a TO, and 15th in forcing them.  Army ranks 103rd and 121st.  Special teams is pretty even, but Navy has the advantage there ranking 56th vs. an average opponent special teams of 69.4 compared to Army 64th vs. 85.  Navy large advantages on third down offense and defense, which will be a huge factor here.  They average 58th between the two against an average 55.75 opponent 3rd down offense/defense.  Army averages 87th, and against a weaker schedule of 68.4.

Looking at the Air Force match up both teams lost, but Navy played far better offensively.  Army only managed 78 rushing yards and 67 passing yards with 25 minutes time of possession.  Navy had a 10-10 game going late losing 13-10 while Army lost 13-7.  That has not been the case in recent years, which only more proof that Navy has significantly improved.  In 2021, Navy lost 23-3, while Army beat Air force 21-14.  In 2020 Navy lost 40-7, while Army won 10-7.  Bottom line I’m taking the money line, I don’t like playing a favorite in this game which is going to be tight, but given all of the fact I laid out I like Navy to win this game a lot.

Purdue +17 -120 2.5% play

Purdue is a very under rated team in my opinion when you look at their schedule they could very easily be 10-2 instead of 8-4.  Their loss against Penn State to open the season could have gone either way, and then their loss against Syracuse on the road on a busted coverage should have gone the other way.  I think Purdue matches up well in the sense that their defensive strength is against the run.  They rank 28th in epa run defense, and Michigan runs the ball 61% of the time.  I don’t see Michigan really hucking the ball all over the field here.  They just need to win and don’t need to be taking chances throwing the ball.

On the flip side Purdue offers something that Michigan just doesn’t really see that often.  A throwing competent offense.  We saw Michigan struggle a little bit against Maryland who is a throw first team and plays good run defense.  Purdue ranks 25th in success rate defense 21st in third down defense and should be able to slow Michigan down enough while I think the rest of this Purdue football team rallies around their QB Aidan McConnel who obviously has been through a lot in the past week losing his brother. I think this game will be much closer and much more interesting to watch.   

Tulane -3.5 3.3% play 

Fresno State +3.5 -120 5.5% NCAAF POD

The weather should have no impact on this game, which is rare for Boise at this time of year, but excellent for Fresno State.  Boise vs. top 50 offenses is 1-2, and their only win was against Fresno State without Jake Haener, and without Jake Haener Fresno is not a top 100 offense.  They played 5 games without Haener went 2-3, and failed to score more than 21 points with the exception of their game against a horrible New Mexico team and turned the ball over 9 times in those games.  Fresno also without their defensive captain Evan Williams in the first meeting and will return for this game.

Fresno’s defense is a top unit they rank 35th in success rate, and their only weakness is defending the run, which BYU with a worse run defense recently stopped Boise.  I think Fresno’s run defense will be pumped up for this one after giving up 300 yards to Boise. They did hold Taylen Green to 22 yards on 11 carries in the first game, and there is only more tape on Green at this point for Fresno to scheme a game plan.  Fresno State without their defensive captain really held their own early in the game against Boise holding Boise in the red zone multiple times.  This is going to be a close game and I would rather have the team with the better more experienced QB.  Fresno State also has a significant advantage in special teams ranking 14th compared to 104th. 

Jeff Tedford also the better head coach here with experience in the MW Championship game.  In fact Tedford 7-2 ATS as a road dog 2017-2019 when he was at Fresno and in 2018 they lost to Boise on the road and came back and beat them in OT on the road in the Championship game.  Andy Avalos is still a very young head coach in just his second season and first time in a game this big.  He is just 1-4 ATS in games where Boise is favored by less than a TD losing 4 outright.  Boise has not been in this situation yet this year.  They were a +2 dog twice, and went 1-1.  In what is supposed to be a tight game Fresno has the advantage in a very key area.

Kansas State +7.5 / Clemson -1.5 3.3% Teaser

Kansas State had a 28-10 lead before going to their 3rd string QB who was a major drop off from Will Howard in the first meeting.  This is the reason many are just blindly backing TCU, and I couldn’t argue, but I would have wanted it above 3 here.  I think the game itself is a coin flip, but getting this very much important game up over the 3, and 7 I think just offers more value. TCU has a lot of pressure now that they are in the top 4.  Kansas State is a well coached team and will have every chance to win this game.

Clemson -1.5

Cheap price here for Clemson who the idea of not being motivated for an ACC Championship is a joke.  Pittsburgh played Wake Forest in last year’s ACC Championship so Clemson has not won it since 2020.  Clemson is 15-0 dating back to 2011 following a loss.  They bounce back very well, and it’s the wrong time to face this top defense.  Clemson’s statistical profile very similar to Notre Dame, a team that crushed and dominated North Carolina on their own field.  North Carolina also lost to Georgia Tech and NC State who also have top 50 pass defenses in their last two games, Clemson ranks 23rd in sack %, 9th ine pa pass defense.

Clemson offense is the weakness of their team.  They need to establish the run to get things going.  I don’t see a situation where Clemson is not moving the ball.  North Carolina can’t get to the QB they rank 127th, they rank 120th in success rate defense, they rank 112th in ypp, they rank 98th in ypc allowed, and these ranks come against a very poor group of offenses.  On average North Carolina has faced 75th ranked offense from a ypp perspective.  Their just are not any excuses for how bad they have been.  The bigger issue for Clemson is turnovers.  In their last 5 games they have been – TO margin, and have lost the ball 15 times.  They have faced 4 top turnover defenses in those 5 games and here North Carolina ranks 113th in % of defensive possessions ending in TO. 

USC -135 4% PAC 12 Championship play 

Utah backed themselves into this PAC 12 Championship game, and USC has a huge opportunity to get the PAC 12 back to the College Football playoff.  Are the refs going to be very kind to USC here in this game?  Either way Utah by the #'s just aren't the same team as last year where they were +1.5 yards per play vs. an opponent average diff +0.83.  This year they are only +0.7 vs. a weaker schedule of opponent -0.1.  Despite USC's defense they are actually +1.2.

Utah beat USC at home winning on a 2 point conversion, but a lot had to go right for Utah to win that game.  Rising was nearly perfect and set records for a Utah QB throwing for 415 yards, many to his TE Kinkaid who had 16 receptions.  Kinkaid banged up for this game, and Rising has had some issues in games with his knee.  Can he make it through this game?  They will also be without Tavion Thompson who was their bell cow back.  USC also lost their starting RB so it's a wash. Both defenses have struggled vs. the run and have improved since.  USC really improved in their last two games against UCLA and Notre Dame. 

Utah has struggled on the road this year losing to UCLA, Oregon, and Florida.  Rising play on the road has suffered he has 6 TD and 6 INT vs. 16/1 at home.  I also think the dome in Vegas caters more to USC's athletes and play style. 

TO luck? I keep hearing USC's turnover luck is going to end, but is it?  At what point is it NOT LUCK.  They are #1 in forcing and limiting turnovers.  Utah has had turnover issues this year ranking 82nd in % of their offensive possessions ending in a TO.  With all the new RB's coming and going I would worry about Utah's ability to hold onto the ball here.  I think USC can win the TO battle yet again as Utah has turned it over 9x in 6 road games.  USC has 4 lost turnovers ALL SEASON. 

Probably my favorite reason here is Lincoln Riley who is used to seeing the same opponent multiple times in the same season.  Whittingham di in 2018, and 2021, with similar results in both games losing to Washington twice in 2018, and beating Oregon twice last year.  Riley's teams have improved their scoring margin in all 4 times Oklahoma faced that opponent a second time in the Big 12 Championship with an average +9.5 point advantage which gives us the cover here.  I also think USC has a chip on their shoulder and a point to prove, and getting revenge for their only loss on the season will be the icing on the cake. 

North Texas / UTSA Over 69.5 2.2% play

Even with this high total I think we are getting some value. We have two experienced QB's who are the strenght of the team.  Both rank in the top 25 in QB rating, and both pass defense are outside the top 75 in ep apass defense, and neither team is very good on third down defense or getting ot the QB.  UTSA ranks 113th in sack %, they are also 128th in explosive plays allowed, while North Texas is #2 in explosive offense.  I also think UTSA's secondary is worse than it the states say, because they faced 4 backup QB's in their last 4 games.  These are two fast paced teams ranking 26th in seconds per play and 22nd. 

There is a level of familiarity here, but UTSA faced Western Kentucky twice last year and the total was just as high in the conference championship as it was in the regular season.  The first meeting between these two was 31-27 in this same stadium, but we had 49 points in the second half after just 9 in the first half, which I feel is more of a fluke, but that is also giving us a little value on the total here as the first meeting had a total set of 73.  I think it also helps that both teams have RB's that are banged up here, and with the strength of each team being their QB I expect we will get more throwing than typical. 

Notre Dame +5 3.3% play 

I like the Irish here and think they match up very well against USC who is very terrible on first down defense.  What does that mean?  It means Notre Dame should set themselves up in 3rd and short.  They should be able to run the ball as USC ranks 120th in epa run defense.  This game reminds me of the game against North Carolina earlier in the year, and side by side North Carolina and USC have a ton of similarities.  Notre Dame won that game easily on the road.  

USC has been living on the turnover game, while we benefited last week it was yet again the defense coming through with some key turnovers.  However, Notre Dame top 50 in turnovers per possession.  This game reminds me of the Oregon State game.  Oregon State top defense, very good run offense, not a good QB  Oregon State lost 14-17, but really dominated that game, and should have won.  Side by side Notre Dame slightly better than Oregon State.  Oregon State was a +3.5 dog in that game.  I think Notre Dame is live here and the line is a bit inflated given a college football spot is up for grabs.  Think this will be a close game and Notre Dame will be motivated to play spoiler here. 

Southern Miss -3 3.3% play

Southern Miss is hunting for their 6th win to get bowl eligible, while LA Monroe has 7 losses and won’t be going bowling.  You can’t blindly back these, but this is one that I like.  I think we are getting some value, because if you just look at recent results, Southern Miss off 3 losses, including a big loss to Georgia State, while Monroe beat Georgia State, but they were -200 yards in that game.  Southern Miss other losses came to P5 opponent, 9-1 Coastal, 8-3 Liberty, 9-2 Troy, and 9-2 South Alabama.  Monroe sits with 4 wins total and is the worst team Southern Miss has faced.

Southern Miss defense is a bit under appreciated and they’ll be the best unit in this game.  They rank 10th in sack %, and will get after Louisiana Monroe’s 121st rank offensive line in pass protection.  Southern Miss also top 50 in run defense, and Louisiana Monroe 107th in ypc.  Monroe is 1-6 vs. top 60 run defenses this season.  Southern Miss also has a top 50 pass defense as they rank 49th in epa pass defense so it could be a long day for Monroe here who has nothing to play for but spoiler.  Southern Miss also enjoys an edge in special teams where they rank 33rd compared to Monroe’s 130th ranking.  Those will be hidden yards and points.  Southern Miss must take care of the ball they rank 127th in to%, but Monroe ranks 123rd in forcing them.  In Southern Misses losses they are averaging 3+ turnovers.  Monroe has not forced 3 TO’s in a single game this year and since moving to Trey Lowe at QB, Southern Miss only 1 TO.