The Giants were embarrassed last week in their 48-27 loss at New Orleans. That game was said to be the Saints

The door has been left open for the Angels after their comeback win in Game 5 on Thursday night. Joe Saunders goes for the Angels and he got the no-decision in a 4-3 loss in Game 2. In that game he gave up just two runs and only six hits in seven innings of work. Saunders is 2-1 against the Yankees in his career and the Angels are 4-2 in his six starts. Many Yankees have poor numbers versus Saunders including Nick Swisher (5-21), Mark Teixeira (2-16), Robinson Cano (2-11), Jose Molina (1-6), Melky Cabrera (0-6), and Jerry Hairston Jr. (0-1). The Yankees are hitting only .257 this postseason.

Andy Pettitte is still looking to become the postseason

This looks like a prime spot to play against the Falcons. They enter this game off their Sunday night spotlight win over the Bears. That win was preceded by a 45-10 waxing on the road at San Francisco which was their first game off their bye week, and next week they play on Monday night against the Saints.

Even though the Falcons are 4-1 so far this season, they

At first glance, this line looks way too high. Minnesota is a perfect 6-0 straight-up and 4-2 against the spread. Pittsburgh is only 4-2 straight-up and a terrible 1-5 against the spread. The Vikings have yet to be an underdog, while the Steelers have been favored in every game. Based on those facts alone, getting the Vikings as a 6-point underdog looks like an absolute steal.

However, when we dig deep into the statistical numbers put-up by both teams, the line is certainly justified. Pittsburgh is the only team in the NFL to out-yard every one of their opponents. On the other hand, Minnesota has been out-yarded in four of their six games, including their last three. Winning

New Mexico State is allowing 27 points per game on 378 yards of offense. Those numbers don

Many expected a little drop-off by USC this season because of all the talent the Trojans lost to the NFL, but that simply has not been the case. USC has already lost a game, but that loss wasn

Vanderbilt was a lucky team in 2008. The Commodores opened last year at 5-0 straight-up and against the spread. But since then, this team has gone just 4-11 straight-up and 4-9-1 against the number. Vanderbilt has been weak offensively and they have scored 16 points or less in 12 of their past 15 games.

This season, Vanderbilt is averaging just 18 points per game (versus teams that allow 27 points per game). Their passing game is virtually non-existent as they complete just 47% of their passes while averaging 5.1 yards per pass attempt (versus teams that allow 6.9 yppa). Overall, they gain just 4.6 yards per play (versus teams that allow 5.4 yppl).

They now take a big step-up in class facing a strong South Carolina defense that is only allowing 19 points per game (versus teams that average 27 ppg). The Gamecocks allow just 4.7 yards per play (versus teams that average 5.5 yppl). Vanderbilt

Boston College is not nearly as good as their 5-2 record suggests. They

Michigan

Minnesota was exposed last week in their 20-0 loss at Penn St. The Golden Gophers were out-yarded by 326 yards (464-138) and now have been out-yarded in 6 of their 7 games while their offense has gained 360 yards or less of total offense in all 7 of their games. And four of those games were played on their home field where teams usually play much better than they do on the road.

Things will be a lot like last week in this game as Minnesota is taking on another stout defensive team in Ohio St. The Buckeyes are only allowing 14 points and 285 yards per game. Their secondary has been outstanding as they allow only 55.6% completions while giving up just 6 touchdown passes with 12 interceptions. And that is a key edge in this game for Ohio St because all Minnesota can do is pass the football. But even their passing game has been weak as they only complete 55% of their passes against teams that allow 60% completions.

Being one-dimensional is a bad thing when facing a strong defense like Ohio St, especially with the Buckeyes off a bad defensive effort last week. Minnesota

Both teams have been big disappointments this season. Florida St enters this game off back-to-back losses and is currently just 2-4 on the season. They actually could be 1-5 had they not scored late to pull out a last minute win over I-AA Jacksonville St. North Carolina is 4-2, but two of their wins have come over I-AA teams with another win coming by only 2 points.

Florida St has played above average football on offense. The Seminoles are averaging 30 points per game against teams that allow 22 points per game. Their running game has been basically non-existent, but their passing game has been really good behind quarterback Christian Ponder. They are throwing for almost 300 yards per game on a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt (versus teams that allow 7.3 yppa). But their potent offense will be missing starting tight end Caz Piurowski while receiver Richard Goodman is questionable with a groin injury.

They face a stiff test tonight against a solid North Carolina defense. The Tar Heels allow just 14 points per game (versus teams that average 22 ppg) and that 8-point difference is huge when facing a decent offensive team. They allow just 2.9 yards per rush (versus teams that average 3.7 ypr) and just 4.5 yards per pass attempt (versus teams that average 5.4 yppa). Overall, they allow an outstanding 3.6 yards per play which is one of the best averages in the country.

North Carolina

The Angels have new life in the ALCS as they play game four of their series with the Yankees on Tuesday night. CC Sabathia will go on three days rest for New York as he tries to duplicate his game one effort. In that game he went eight innings, giving up four hits and one run in Yankee Stadium. That offsets his 0-2 record with a 6.08 ERA versus LAA during the regular season. Torii Hunter (20-68), Chone Figgins (5-16), Howie Kendrick (8-12), Maicer Izturis (5-10), Bobby Abreu (3-9), Kendry Morales (3-9), and Mike Napoli (3-9) all have good numbers versus the lefty. The Angels are 52-32 at home and 39-18 against left handed starters this season.

A mid-season acquisition of Scott Kazmir could turn even better for the Angels as Kazmir has good career numbers versus the Yankees. The lefty is 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA against them in three starts this season and hasn

Last year

Seattle plays on the strongest home field in the NFL, but after going just 2-6 at home in 2008 because of numerous injuries, the betting marketplace is still not giving the Seahawks their full home field edge this season.

They

Green Bay gets the perfect set-up and situation for a blowout win today. The Packers enter this game off a bye week which came after a divisional loss at Minnesota. They also lost to Cincinnati as 7½-point home favorites the last time they played in Lambeau and that means the Packers will be ready to fire their best game of the season, especially facing divisional opponent Detroit.

The Lions limp into this game as they are without starting quarterback Matthew Stafford and possibly without their best wide receiver, Calvin Johnson. That means Daunte Culpepper will start at quarterback and he

The Texans are just 2-3 on the season, but they

Fresno St was a solid winner for us last week in their 42-17 romp at Hawaii. The Bulldogs ran for 277 yards in that game and they should have that same type of domination against the weak San Jose State defense tonight.

San Jose State is allowing 32 points and 463 total yards per game. The Spartans allow over 200 yards on the ground (6.0 yards per rush versus team that average 4.9 ypr) and through the air (8.6 yards per pass attempt versus teams that average 7.6 yppa). Overall, their defense allows a whopping 7.0 yards per play (versus teams that average 6.0 yppl). Those are horrendous numbers and they have basically no chance at stopping a potent offensive team like Fresno State.

Fresno

Mississippi takes a huge step down in class for this game. After three straight SEC games, with two of those coming against the strong defenses of South Carolina and Alabama, the Rebels will face a much softer UAB defense here.

In their other three games, Mississippi

Minnesota is not nearly as good as their 4-2 record would suggest. The Golden Gophers have been out-yarded in 5 of their 6 games, while their offense has gained 360 yards or less of total offense in all 6 of their games. Four of those games were played on their home field where teams usually play much better than they do on the road.

Things will be much tougher in this game as Minnesota is taking a huge step up in class facing the stout Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions are only allowing 10 points and 256 yards per game. Their secondary has been outstanding as they allow only 52% completions while giving up just 3 touchdown passes with 7 interceptions which is a key edge in this game for Penn State because all Minnesota can do is pass the football. But even their passing game has been weak as they only complete 57% of their passes against teams that allow 61% completions.

Being one-dimensional is a bad thing when facing a strong defense like Penn State, especially with bad weather in the forecast. Minnesota

This is a bad spot for Connecticut. Last week

On the surface, Pittsburgh and Rutgers appear to be two identical teams. The Panthers are 5-1 and the Scarlet Knights are 4-1. Pittsburgh averages 35 points per game and allows 19 points per game. Rutgers averages 32 points per game and allows 16 points per game, but there

The Yankees had the best record in the league this season and won 103 regular season games, but only one of the past four teams to win 100+ games have even made it to the World Series and none of them have won the title. The Angels are a dangerous underdog in this series and they present value with John Lackey on the mound tonight. Lackey faced the Yankees once this season, taking the win in a 5-4 game in Anaheim and giving up just two runs and six hits in seven innings of work. Lackey has pitched well this season with a 3.68 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in 28 starts with a 143/48 strikeout/walk ratio.

C.C. Sabathia has struggled against Anaheim this season and is 0-2 against the Angels in two starts, giving up 10 runs in 13.3 innings of work for a terrible 6.08 ERA and a 1.575 WHIP. Sabathia is just 5-7 against the Angels with a mediocre 4.72 ERA and 1.460 WHIP during his career. Torii Hunter (20-68), Chone Figgins (5-16), Howie Kendrick (8-12), Maicer Izturis (5-10), Bobby Abreu (3-9), Kendry Morales (3-9) and Mike Napoli (3-9) all hit Sabathia well. The Angels remain a fantastic offensive squad this season and they have been particularly strong versus left handed pitchers on the road, averaging 6.1 runs per nine innings and batting .294 as a team.

Play ANGELS (+1.5 runline).

Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly is one of the best coaches in the country. Kelly turned around a floundering Central Michigan program and in 2006 led them to a 10-4 record. He then left for a bigger program and a bigger payday and took the Cincinnati job in 2007. Like CMU, Cincinnati was a mediocre program when Kelly arrived, but over the last two and a half years, Kelly has led the Bearcats to an impressive 26-6 record. So that means Kelly coached teams are on a strong 36-10 straight-up run and a sterling 27-14-2 against the spread run.

That means there better be a good reason to play-against a Kelly coached team and there are actually a few in this game. Despite Kelly

Head coach Todd Graham has done a phenomenal job at Tulsa. This is his third year and he has guided the Golden Hurricane to a 25-8 record. On their strong home field, Tulsa is a spectacular 12-1 straight-up and 7-4 against the spread during the regular season. Their only loss came back in 2007 to in-state powerhouse Oklahoma.

With #5 Boise St coming to town tonight, this is the biggest game for Tulsa since Graham arrived. Tulsa is 4-1 on the season with their only loss being a 45-0 drubbing at Oklahoma a month ago, but Tulsa was playing their third straight road game in that spot, and also had to face Oklahoma in Norman. The 45-0 final was a bit misleading as Tulsa actually took 25 of its first 27 offensive snaps in Oklahoma territory, but two turnovers, a missed field goal, and a punt resulted in no first-half points. To move the ball on one of the best front seven

The Twins have one of the strongest home fields in the league and there will be extra emotion tonight in what could be the last game played in the Metrodome. Minnesota presents extra value as a rare +1.5 home underdog on the runline and they should get a solid outing from Carl Pavano who has an excellent 2.70 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his two starts versus the Yankees this season.

Meanwhile, Andy Pettitte has struggled against the Twins in his two most recent starts the past two seasons, giving up 22 hits and nine runs in just 13.7 innings of work for a weak 5.27 ERA and 1.683 WHIP. The Twins as a team hit .394 against the lefty with Brendan Harris (8-17), Michael Cuddyer (5-14), Delmon Young (9-14), Joe Mauer (4-10), Carlos Gomez (3-9), Nick Punto (2-6) and Mike Redmond (2-3) all having success.

Play TWINS (+1.5 runline).

Denver

This is a tough spot for Minnesota. The Vikings are off their big Monday night win over the Packers, and now they must travel on a short week and lay a significant price on the road. Brett Favre played an exceptional game against his old team, and it

Fresno State has played a brutal schedule already this season. They are just 1-3 straight-up, but their three losses came at Wisconsin, home against Boise St, and then at Cincinnati. Those teams are a combined 15-0 straight-up and 8-2 against the spread versus their other opponents. The Bulldogs deserve to have a much better record than their 1-3 SU mark because they

Steve Sarkisian and his staff have done a solid job at Washington this season. The Huskies were winless a season ago, but right now stand at 2-3 SU. They

Oregon is not nearly as good as their 4-1 record suggests. The Ducks were completely out-played in their first two games against Boise St and Purdue. They then beat Utah in an ugly game that saw minimal offense and a combined 6 turnovers. Next was their big win over California, but we saw the Bears get waxed once again last week by USC. And just toss the 52-6 win over Washington State, a team that doesn

Nevada has played much better football than their 1-3 record indicates. Their three losses have come against a decent slate of opponents and that tough competition will have Nevada ready for their conference games which start tonight. The Wolf Pack exploded last week in their 63-28 romp of in-state rival UNLV. They put up a whopping 773 yards of offense with an incredible 559 yards on the ground while averaging 10.2 yards per rush.

On the season, Nevada averages 275 yards per game on the ground. They gain 6.9 yards per rush (versus teams that allow 4.3 ypr), and they should dominate a weak Louisiana Tech run defense that allows 186 yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush. In their two road games this season, LA Tech allowed 301 rushing yards to Auburn and 290 rushing yards to Navy. Nevada should have no problem eclipsing the 200-yard mark tonight.

Nevada

Missouri has played much better than expected so far this season and they enter this game a perfect 4-0. Missouri figured to be down this season after losing their three best offensive players to the NFL; QB Chase Daniel, WR Jeremy Maclin, and TE Chase Coffman. Missouri also lost two defensive linemen to the NFL. That

Los Angeles hosts the Cardinals in Game One of their NLDS series on Wednesday. St. Louis limped to the finish going 2-8 in their last 10 games. Randy Wolf will be the Dodgers

Troy has dominated the Sun Belt conference the past three seasons and they are 19-3 SU in their past 22 conference games since the start of the 2006 season. Troy started slowly this season and lost their first two non-conference games at Bowling Green and Florida, but the Trojans have since recovered with back-to-back SU/ATS wins.

Troy should continue their momentum tonight on their strong home field where they stand 37-5 SU this decade. Troy has also dominated Middle Tennessee State the past two years with a 31-17 win as a 6-point road favorite last year and an easy 45-7 win in 2007 as a 13½-point home favorite. Troy won both games despite a 6-4 turnover deficit and outgained Middle Tenn State by a combined 482-208 in rushing yards (5.2-2.7 ypr).

Troy should hold the edge on the line of scrimmage again tonight as they will be facing a below average Middle Tenn State rush defense that has allowed 152 yards and 4.1 yards per carry this season (versus opponents that average just 127 yards and 3.5 ypr). Troy will also do damage through the air as the Trojans are averaging 279 passing yards per game and 7.5 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow just 6.9 ypp). Middle Tenn State has been below average defending the pass this season, allowing 61.1% completions and 6.8 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 58.6% and 6.4 ypp).

Play TROY (-).

NOTE: Check back at 2 pm ET for the Sunday night selection (Chargers/Steelers).

The Dolphins are better than their 0-3 SU/ATS record indicates as they have played a difficult schedule of opponents with their three losses coming versus the Falcons, Colts, and Chargers. Miami

NFL Game of the Week

The Texans have one of the worst defenses in the league as they qualify in a negative 33-56 ATS weak defensive favorite today. Houston is 1-2 SU/ATS with their only win coming by 3 points and the Texans have gone 0-2 SU/ATS at home, losing both games outright as a favorite. In fact, going back to last season, Houston has only won 2 of their past 19 games by more than a touchdown.

The Texans have been particularly weak against the run and are allowing a horrendous 205 yards per game this season and 6.2 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 137 yards and 4.7 ypr). Houston has been consistently bad against the run, allowing 190, 240, and 184 in each game this year. Oakland matches up well in this game as the Raiders have a terrible passing attack with QB JaMarcus Russell, but the Raiders do have a solid rushing attack with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush.

Oakland also matches up well on defense as they allow just 19.0 points per game and only 5.4 yards per play (versus opponents that average 20.3 ppg and 5.6 yppl). Oakland has struggled to stop the run this year; however they have been strong against the pass, allowing just 6.5 yards per pass (versus opponents that average 7.3 ypp). This solid pass defense will be important against Houston

The Browns are obviously a bad team, but this game presents a solid situation for Cleveland to get their first pointspread cover of the season. Cleveland has struggled on offense, but they should improve with the quarterback change that replaces the ineffective Brady Quinn with former starter Derek Anderson. Cleveland was 10-6 SU and 12-4 ATS in 2007 with Anderson as the primary quarterback and he should provide a better aerial attack and spark the Browns

Mississippi State is coming off a hard fought loss versus LSU last weekend in a game that went down to the final seconds in a 30-26 loss as a 12-point home underdog. Teams often come out flat after a close loss and a letdown is definite possible for the Bulldogs tonight in this non-conference game. In fact, Miss State qualifies in a negative 25-53 ATS situation.

Georgia Tech dominated this game last year with an easy 38-7 home win as a 7-point favorite as the Yellow Jackets held a 21-0 lead at halftime and a 438-108 rushing edge in the game. Georgia Tech is coming off a big home win versus North Carolina, but a letdown is less likely for the Yellow Jackets due to their strong edge on the line of scrimmage. Tech outrushed UNC 317-17 last week and the Yellow Jackets should be able to run the ball with success again tonight, especially since Miss State does not have the advantage of a bye week to prepare for the triple option attack.

Georgia Tech is playing with a mission as they feel disrespected after dropping out of the Top 25 when they loss at Miami-Fla and Paul Johnson

The Aggies and Razorbacks will go at it in Dallas Cowboys Stadium Saturday night. Texas A&M is putting up impressive offensive numbers so far this season eclipsing the 200 yard rushing mark in each of their three games so far this season, with over 300 yards passing. The Aggies are number one in the nation in total offense with their passing offense ranking 6th and rushing offense 7th. Jerrod Johnson is 3rd in the nation in total offense producing almost 400 yards a game (385.67). Johnson has good weapons in Ryan Tannehill and Jamie McCoy who each get about four receptions a game.

Texas A&M is also playing strong defense as they are number one in sacks averaging 4.67 a game and seventh overall in tackles for loss with 8.33 per contest. Von Miller has a whopping eight sacks this season in three games and eight solo tackles for loss. He had four sacks all of last year alone.

Arkansas brings a 1-2 record into the contest with their sole victory coming over Missouri State 48-10. Arkansas lost at home to Georgia 52-41 and was blown out by Alabama 35-7 last week. The Razorbacks are struggling in multiple areas including rushing offense where they are ranked 106th in the country. They average only 94 yards per game on the ground. Another area of weakness is pass efficiency defense where they are ranked 119th. That's not exactly a good area of weakness for a team that will be playing an offense capable of over 300 yards thru the air tonight. Arkansas' defense checks in at 91st overall. They allow an average of 32 points per game which gives a major edge to the explosive Texas A&M offense tonight.

Play TEXAS A&M (+).

Georgia is the better team in this game and they present value as a small home favorite today as my power ratings make the Bulldogs a 6-point favorite in this game. Georgia has outplayed their past three opponents by more than the close final scores indicate as Georgia had a 3-1 negative turnover margin in each of those three wins. In fact, Georgia is now -9 on the season in turnovers with 12 committed and only 3 forced, yet they still stand 3-1 SU. In fact, Georgia qualifies in a solid 65-31 ATS contrary indicator based on their negative turnover margin.

LSU has not been impressive in either of their road games this season, going 0-2 ATS against inferior Washington and Mississippi State squads, failing to cover by a combined 18 points in those two games. LSU is not as strong as their 4-0 SU record suggests as the Tigers have been fortunate in the turnover department with a +7 margin, including a 4-0 edge versus Mississippi State last week in a narrow 30-26 win which included a punt return for a touchdown. LSU struggled to run the ball and gained only 30 rushing yards on 31 attempts. Overall, the Tigers were outgained 263-374 in total yards.

Both teams today have solid defenses, but Georgia holds a substantial edge on offense. The Bulldogs are averaging 30.7 points per game and 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 20.9 ppg and 4.8 yppl). Georgia has been especially strong through the air as their passing attack is averaging 8.8 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow just 6.8 ypp). LSU

Utah State returned 16 starters this season and although they have a new head coach, they are a team on the rise. The Aggies are 16-6 ATS in their past 22 games versus I-A opponents, including a perfect 2-0 ATS this season, covering both games at Utah and Texas A&M. Utah State has a solid offense that is averaging 33.3 points and 489 total yards per game at 6.7 yards per play (versus opponents that permit just 27.1 ppg and 5.8 yppl). This strong offense is what enabled them to stay within the large numbers versus both Utah and Texas A&M and it should keep tonight

This is a revenge game for West Virginia as they were upset at Colorado last season as a 3-point road favorite. The Mountaineers struggled in the thin air and altitude, but they should perform much better at home tonight.

Colorado was suppose to have an improved team this season, but the results on the field have been extremely disappointing and statistically the Buffaloes are a bad team on both sides of the ball and not nearly as strong as their 26.3 points per game would imply offensively. Colorado is averaging just 4.6 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 5.4 yppl) and they have struggled with both their rushing and passing attacks, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and only 5.6 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 4.3 ypr and 6.3 ypp).

The Buffaloes are unlikely to have any success against a strong West Virginia defense that is much better than the 27.0 ppg allowed indicates as the Mountaineers are allowing just 4.7 yards per play (versus opponents that average 5.6 yppl). West Virginia has been especially strong versus the run as they allow just 84 yards per game on the ground and only 2.7 yards per carry (versus opponents that average 151 yards and 4.3 ypr). WVU also has a strong pass defense that allows just 51.9% completions and 6.5 yards per pass (versus opponents that average 59.6% and 7.0 ypp).

West Virginia has a strong offense that is averaging 32.7 points per game this season and 7.0 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 27.8 ppg and 5.8 yppl). They have a balanced attack that averages 192 rushing yards and 293 passing yards per game and overall gains 5.2 yards per carry and 9.0 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow just 4.3 ypr and 7.8 ypp).

WVU should have plenty of success moving the ball against a below average Colorado defense that allows 6.2 yards per play (versus opponents that average 5.6 yppl). The Buffaloes have a terrible pass defense that allows 9.0 yards per pass (versus opponents that average 7.0 ypp) and Colorado

Hawaii is no longer a power in a WAC and they went just 7-7 SU last season with new head coach Greg McMackin at the helm. The Warriors are have become a weaker team on offense as they averaged 46.9 and 43.4 points per game in the final two seasons under head coach June Jones, but managed only 24.6 ppg last year. The Warriors have started strong this season on offense, but they still have a one-dimensional attack as they have struggled to run the ball and average just 92 yards per game on the ground.

Hawaii

Carolina

Both Arizona and Indianapolis rely heavily on their passing offenses, but the Cardinals appear to have a better ground game this season after gaining 118 rushing yards (4.2 ypr) last week at Jacksonville, while the Colts only managed 71 rushing yards (2.3 ypr) versus the same Jaguars

The Patriots entered the season as the favorite to win the Super Bowl, but after a pair of lackluster performances the oddsmakers and public have quickly downgraded New England and we now get solid line value with the Patriots as a rare small favorite at home. New England would have been at least a -7 point favorite or higher two weeks ago in this game.

New England does have some question marks on defense, but they actually held the Bills to just 276 total yards and then held the Jets to only 254 total yards last week. Overall, New England is allowing just 5.5 yards per play (versus opponents that have averaged 6.1 yppl).

Atlanta is not as strong as their 2-0 SU/ATS start indicates as the Falcons benefited from a +4 turnover edge versus Miami, including a +3 edge in fumbles which is random, but still managed only 281 total yards in that game. Their 28-20 win versus Carolina last week was also a bit misleading as Carolina actually held a 440-371 total yard edge and a 6.6-5.8 yards per play advantage.

The Falcons qualify in a negative 48-72 ATS road letdown situation today and they will be facing a New England team that will be extra motivated and focused after their 1-1 SU start. The Patriots are 47-9 SU at home the past six years and recent results have created excellent line value today.

Play PATRIOTS (-).

Washington had the ideal setup for their 16-13 upset win versus USC last Saturday as the Trojans were in a major letdown spot after their comeback win at Ohio State and USC was playing without their starting quarterback. Washington also had a strategic edge as new head coach Steve Sarkisian was the offensive coordinator at USC last season and Sarkisian and other former USC coaches on the Washington staff knew how to develop a gameplan to stop Pete Carroll

This line has been over adjusted based on Purdue

This line has been inflated due to Middle Tennessee State

Nevada

The Jays completed a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles and now welcome Seattle for a four game series. Toronto hopes that Ricky Romero can continue the team

The oddsmakers are forced to inflate this line tonight with Cole Hamels on the mound and this provides solid line value with the Marlins as a rare +1½ home dog on the runline. Both starting pitchers enter in excellent current form, but Hamels has struggled against the Marlins this season, allowing 5 runs in just 10.3 inning of work for a mediocre 4.35 ERA, including allowing 4 runs in just 5.3 innings last month versus the Fish. Overall, Hamels is just 2-5 versus the Marlins and with a 3-7 SU team record in ten career starts.

The Phillies are batting just .240 as a team during their past seven games and they will likely struggle tonight against Florida

The Rangers appear to be running on empty and might not have much left in their tanks. Texas lost two of three at the hands of the Angels and now hit the road for a crucial four game set with the red-hot Oakland Athletics. The A's have won seven straight and nine of their last 10 overall and send Edgar Gonzalez to the hill tonight. He is 0-1 with a 3.79 ERA in four starts this season and 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA in two outings at home. Gonzalez has faced the Rangers twice this year and just last Tuesday he allowed just one run and four hits in four innings of work in a start at Texas. Omar Vizquel (2-17), Ian Kinsler (0-4), Chris Davis (0-4), Michael Young (0-3), Pudge Rodriguez (0-2) and Elvis Andrus (0-1) have all struggled versus Gonzalez so far in limited at-bats.

The Rangers have lost six of their last seven games and they remain ice cold offensively with 8 hits or less in each of their past seven games, averaging just 5.6 hits per game during that span. Kevin Millwood has apparently hit the wall this season with a 7.36 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in his last three starts, getting touched up for 12 runs in 14.7 innings versus weak offensive opponents Seattle, Baltimore and Minnesota. In two outings against the A's this season Millwood has given up six runs and 15 hits in 14 innings of work. Both of those outings came early in the season and at home in Texas where Millwood is a whole lot better. Mark Ellis (12-29), Bobby Crosby (5-16), Nomar (4-13), Daric Barton (3-9), Ryan Sweeney (4-9) and Cliff Pennington (1-3) all hit the righthander well.

Play ATHLETICS (+1.5 runline).

NFL Game of the Week

Buffalo is coming off a heart-breaking loss on Monday night as they blew a 24-13 lead at New England as an 11-point underdog and allowed two touchdowns in the final 2:06 of the game in an eventual 25-24 loss. Teams often suffer a letdown after a close defeat and this is especially likely for Buffalo today as they return home on a short week to face a weak non-conference opponent.

Tampa Bay lost 34-21 to Dallas last Sunday, but the Buccaneers actually played extremely well on offense and gained 450 total yards and 6.2 yards per play. The Buccaneers were particularly strong on the ground and gained 174 rushing yards and 5.6 yards per carry. They should have continued success today against a Buffalo defense that allowed New England to gain 441 total yards and 5.8 yards per play. Tampa Bay qualifies in a solid 105-61 ATS running underdog situation today.

The Buccaneers

The Jets dominated Houston last week with an easy 24-7 road underdog win and New York now qualifies in a solid 62-28 ATS home momentum situation today. The Jets held a 462-183 total yard edge at Houston last week and outgained the Texans 6.3-4.0 yards per play.

Rookie quarterback Matt Sanchez had a strong debut and should perform well at home this week. The Jets will look to take pressure off their young quarterback by running the ball against a mediocre New England defense as New York gained 190 rushing yards (4.5 ypr) last week at Houston.

New England had to overcome a 24-13 deficit in their 25-24 Monday night win and the Patriots

Carolina

UTEP is much better than their 0-2 SU/ATS start indicates as the Miners are still one of the most talented teams in Conference USA. They hold a substantial talent edge tonight against an awful New Mexico State squad that is still trying to adjust to new head coach DeWayne Walker.

UTEP will be motivated for a big win after two straight home losses versus Buffalo and a talented Kansas squad. The Miners averaged 32.9 points per game last season and 6.0 yards per play and should be even stronger this year with eight offensive starters returning. They are led by one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country as junior Trevor Vittatoe returns after a fantastic 2008 season in which he threw for 3,274 yards with 33 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions. UTEP

Virginia failed to cover as an 11-point home underdog last week when they lost 14-30 to TCU and they actually trailed 0-24 entering the fourth quarter before scoring a couple of meaningless touchdowns and overall gained just 177 total yards in the game. They are now averaging just 14 points and 3.6 yards per play this year.

Virginia is a poor team right now, especially on offense, as they are struggling to implement new offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon

Notre Dame is coming off a last second loss at Michigan last week and teams often come out flat after a heartbreaking defeat. This was evident last Saturday when Florida State barely won as a 34-point home favorite against Jacksonville State after the Seminoles close loss versus Miami-Fla the previous Monday night.

Michigan State is obviously a more prestigious opponent than Jacksonville State, but the Irish will have a difficult time winning by double digits. We also get added line value after Michigan State

Georgia Tech dominated the line of scrimmage in this game last season and they present value at an underdog price tonight. Both teams return the majority of their starters on both offense and defense this season, so the matchups should once again favor the Yellow Jackets tonight.

Georgia Tech won easily 41-23 last year as a 3-point home favorite and they held a huge 472-105 rushing advantage. Their rushing attack looks just as strong this season as they have already gained 335 and 301 rushing yards in their first two games and are averaging 6.4 yards per carry.

Miami did not run the ball well against Florida State as the Hurricanes gained only 90 yards on the ground and just 3.0 yards per carry. They did hold FSU to just 110 rushing yards, but this is less impressive considering I-AA Jacksonville State held the Seminoles to just 78 yards rushing (3.0 ypr) last Saturday and almost won the game outright as a +34 point underdog.

Georgia Tech qualifies as a strong running underdog tonight and head coach Paul Johnson remains one of the most profitable coaches in the nation with a solid 52-36 ATS record the past seven years at Navy and Georgia Tech, including 28-16 ATS as an underdog.

Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

This game is very similar to the Lions/Saints game yesterday as normally double-digit underdogs are worth a look in the NFL, but this is because the favorites usually overlook their inferior opponent. This is less likely in Game #1 and New Orleans covered yesterday as their explosive offense was able to extend the lead as expected and New England should have similar success tonight.

The Patriots were without their star quarterback Tom Brady for the entire season last year, but their offense was still able to average 25.6 points per game (versus opponents that allowed just 22.9 ppg). New England should be even stronger now that Brady is back in the lineup and the Patriots averaged a fantastic 34 points per game and won by an average margin of +17 points per game in 2007 with Brady in the lineup during their 18-1 SU season.

New England was 11-5 SU last year and still missed the playoffs, so they will be extra focused tonight and will not overlook a weaker Buffalo squad. New England does have some question marks on defense, but it is unlikely that a struggling Buffalo offense can take advantage as the Bills just fired their offensive coordinator last week and their starting offense scored just 3 total points in five preseason games.

New England has shown the tendency to blow out weaker opponents the past few seasons, including a current 5-0 SU/ATS run versus Buffalo in which the Patriots have won by +13, +10, +46, +31, and +22 point margins.

Play PATRIOTS (-).

The Packers and Bears renew their rivalry on Sunday night football week and Green Bay is a popular sleeper pick to do some damage in the NFC as they've got a hot offense led by QB Aaron Rodgers. Last year the Packers put up the 5th most points in the league, but had only a 6-10 SU record to show for it. The defense had some adjustments made as Dom Capers stepped in at defensive coordinator and BJ Raji and Clay Matthews were drafted to bolster the unit. Aaron Rodgers threw for 4,038 yards last season and has Greg Jennings and Donald Driver back to drive opposing secondaries crazy. That's where the Bears were the weakest last season as their secondary gave up the third most passing yards in the league last season at 241.2 per game. Chicago

The Giants won the Super Bowl two seasons ago and they started off a strong 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in their first twelve games last year before struggling down the stretch after the Plaxico Burress off the field distraction. New York should rebound with a solid showing this season as they once again have an excellent rushing attack that led the league last year with 156 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry (versus opponents that allowed just 106 yards per game and 3.9 ypr).

Quality home favorites are historically strong plays in divisional games during the first week of the season and New York fits as solid 33-17 ATS Game #1 situation based on that premise. The Giants also match up well versus the Redskins and have gone 3-1 SU/ATS in the four head-to-head meetings the past two seasons, including 2-0 SU/ATS last year with 9 and 16 point wins with 354-209 and 404-320 total yard edges in both games.

Play GIANTS (-).

The 49ers started last season just 2-5 SU/ATS with Mike Nolan as the head coach, but the Niners finished strong down the stretch after Mike Singletary took over the head job and San Francisco was 4-1 SU in their final five games and overall 5-2-1 ATS in the second half of the season. San Francisco was actually a solid team on the line scrimmage and out gained their opponents 5.5-5.2 yards per play. The problem was turnovers as San Francisco had a 35-18 (-17) turnover margin on the season. The majority of the problem was when J.T. O

Normally double-digit underdogs are worth a look in the NFL, but this because the favorites normally overlook their inferior opponent. New Orleans is less likely to fall into this trap as the Saints are coming off a disappointing 8-8 SU season and want to start this new season with a solid win. New Orleans is an improved squad this season and the Saints have plenty of firepower on offense to cover this large number, especially against a terrible Detroit defense.

New Orleans averaged 28.9 points per game last year and a fantastic 6.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allowed just 23.0 ppg and 5.6 yppl). New Orleans was particularly strong at home where they averaged 32.4 ppg and 6.9 yppl. The Saints strength is their passing attack led by QB Drew Brees that averaged 7.8 yards per pass last year (versus opponents that allowed just 6.6 ypp). Detroit had an awful secondary last year and allowed a horrendous 68.5% completions and 8.4 yards per pass (versus opponents that allowed just 61.7% and 6.7 ypp). Detroit was also terrible against the run, allowing 172 rushing yards per game with 5.2 yards per rush (versus opponents that allowed just 119 yards and 4.2 ypp).

Detroit will be starting a true rookie quarterback with Matthew Stafford and he struggled in the preseason with a poor 52.8 QB rating and just 54.5% completions (30-for-55). He also had a 1/4 TD/INT ratio and those four picks tied him for the most of any preseason quarterback. He will likely struggle again today on the road in a hostile environment against an aggressive and improved New Orleans defense.

Play SAINTS (-).

UNLV is a veteran team that returns 7 offensive and 7 defensive starters this season. They struggled to stop the run last season, but they should be better this year with a strong front-7. Linebacker Jason Beauchamp is questionable, but regardless the Rebels still have an extremely deep set of LB

Auburn is coming off a very disappointing 5-7 SU (2-9 ATS) season, but keep in mind this is still a talented program that had gone 20-6 SU the previous two years. Auburn looks to get back on track this season with a solid new head coach in Gene Chizik and 15 returning starters.

Auburn was impressive last week against Louisiana Tech as Auburn won easily 37-13 as a 13½-point favorite and dominated the line of scrimmage with a 301-96 rushing edge and an overall 556-245 total yard advantage.

Auburn should have continued success tonight against a young Mississippi State defense that returns just 4 starters and lost five of their top six tacklers from last year. The Bulldogs have a new head coach in Dan Mullen and they are implementing new offensive and defensive systems and switching from a run offense to a pass offense. Last week

Both of these teams struggled last season and both squads are improved this year, including a pair of easy blowout wins last week. Overall, I rate these two squads as equal, therefore the line value is with Michigan as a home underdog today.

The Wolverines saw their 40-year consecutive streak of winning seasons come and 33 straight bowl game appearances come to an end last year. The struggles were mainly because new head coach Rich Rodriguez was unable to implement his offensive system. This is no longer the case as Michigan is now in the second year with Rodriguez at the helm and he has a veteran offense that returns 10 starters and should be much more efficient this season. This was evident in last week

Virginia is a poor team right now, especially on offense, as they are struggling to implement new offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon

The sportsbooks made money on both these teams last week as both Toledo and Colorado had heavy money pour in on their sides only to get blown out in both contests. Toledo is more likely to bounce back tonight at home as MAC home teams continue to have one of the stronger home field edges in the nation.

Colorado has a run-based offense and it was terrible last week against a Colorado State defense that was one of the worst defensive teams in the nation last season. The Buffaloes only gained 29 rushing yards on 21 attempts (1.4 ypr) and Toledo

A popular betting system is to fade the defending Super Bowl champion in September. This method has shown some success in year

The Diamondbacks present value tonight as a full +1.5 run home underdog at a pick

Miami-Fla opens with an extremely difficult schedule with four straight games versus Top 20 opponents (Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma), but the Hurricanes are a veteran squad and they should be able to hold their own tonight.

Miami returns 15 starters (8 offense, 7 defense) and they have played Florida State close in every meeting this decade and have not lost any of the past ten games by more than 3 points. Miami

NOTE: Check back at 4 pm ET for tonight's Miami/Florida State selection.

Cincinnati was the best team in the Big East last year and finished the regular season with an excellent 11-2 SU record. They should be even stronger on offense this season with eight returning starters and a passing offense that averaged 61.4% completions and 7.5 yards per pass (versus opponents that allowed just 7.1 ypp) despite having numerous quarterback injuries. This solid passing attack will be the key today against a Rutgers

Colorado averaged 27.3 points per game in 2007, but then a young offense underachieved last year and averaged just 20.2 points per game. The Buffaloes should be better this year with 9 returning offensive starters and a talented backfield with a veteran offensive line. Colorado will have plenty of success on the ground tonight against a Colorado State defense that was one of the worst in the nation last year.

The Rams allowed 30.2 points per game and a horrendous 6.2 yards per play (versus opponents that averaged just 5.5 yppl) and CSU was particularly bad against the run, allowing 190 yards per game on the ground and 5.3 yards per rush (versus opponents that averaged just 4.3 ypr). This gives Colorado

NOTE: Check back at 3 pm ET for the Sunday night selection (Colorado State/Colorado).

The key to handicapping games with large favorites is determining the motivation of the superior team and if they will try to win by a large margin. This should be the case today as Mississippi will not overlook their nearby rival in Memphis and the Rebels are still trying to establish themselves as a national title contender and will use today

The Miners will be motivated for their home opener tonight and they face an overrated Buffalo squad that despite winning the MAC Championship game still went just 8-6 SU overall last year. Buffalo only outscored their opponents by 2.1 points per game and were actually outgained by 38 total yards per game by their opponents (370-408) and outgained 5.4-5.9 yards per play. The margins were even worse on the road as the Bulls were outgained 343-435 in total yards per game (5.0-6.2 yppl). The only reason Buffalo won so many games was because they had a +19 turnover margin on the season, including an incredible +17 fumble margin which is very random and will not continue this season.

Buffalo will struggle to stop an explosive UTEP offense that averaged 32.9 points per game last season and 6.0 yards per play and should be even stronger this year with eight offensive starters returning. Overall, UTEP has a veteran squad that returns 15 starters and they should be one of the best teams in Conference USA. They are led by one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country as junior Trevor Vittatoe returns after a fantastic 2008 season in which he threw for 3,274 yards with 33 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions. UTEP

Rice and UAB will meet for the third time on the gridiron and the series is tied 1-1 so far with the home team going 2-0 SU/ATS during the two meetings in 2005 and 2006. The Blazers are 11-2 in home openers and should be extra motivated for a winnable game today after going just 4-8 SU last year. UAB finished their season winning two of their last three with wins versus Tulane and UCF and losing a close home game to East Carolina. This season, UAB returns 11 starters on an offense that averaged 23 points per game and will now be much stronger. In early season games, it

This game is being played on a neutral field in Cincinnati and Kentucky should have plenty of crowd support. The Wildcats are no longer a push over in the SEC after three straight bowl appearances, but they still relish the chance to beat up on weaker opponents when given the chance. This has been evident in early non-conference games the past two seasons as Kentucky has gone a perfect 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS) which includes blowout wins by 38, 35, 25, 28, 36, and 40 point margins.

Kentucky should be stronger on offense this season with seven returning starters and they will have no problem moving the ball against a terrible Miami-Ohio defense that allowed 32.7 points per game and 6.3 yards per play last season (versus opponents that averaged just 24.6 ppg and 5.2 yppl). Miami was equally bad against the rush (5.4 ypr) and the pass (7.6 ypp).

Kentucky returns only five defensive starters, but they still hold a major edge on that side of the ball and they should have a strong stop-unit once again this year. The Wildcats allowed just 21.5 points per game last season and will now be facing a weak Miami-Oh offense that averaged only 18.4 points per game and just 4.7 yards per play last year (versus opponents that allowed 26.4 ppg and 5.3 yppl).

Play KENTUCKY (-).

Most teams rest their starters and have very little interest in the final week of the NFL preseason. This means these games are usually decided by the backup players. Motivation is also an important factor when handicapping the final week of the preseason and Oakland holds the edge in both key categories tonight.

The Raiders were embarrassed in a 45-7 home loss versus New Orleans last Saturday and head coach Tom Cable wants a better effort from his team tonight. Meanwhile, Seattle has won three straight games which means they have less to play for tonight. Seattle has been fortunate in the turnover department with a +2, +3, and +1 edge in all three wins, while Oakland has committed 7 turnovers in their past two losses.

The biggest key for Oakland in this game is with the quarterback rotation as they have an excellent deep and veteran lineup with a pair of former regular season starters battling for the third-string spot. Both Charlie Frye and Bruce Gradkowski will see extended minutes after Jeff Garcia tonight. Meanwhile, Seattle is very inexperienced with Mike Teel and Jeff Rowe.

Play RAIDERS (+).

The Wolfpack and Gamecocks open up the college football season on Thursday night as NC State looks for revenge for last year's 34-0 pasting. These are two completely different teams now as NC State struggled last year without first-team all ACC quarterback Russell Wilson who left the middle of last year's game with a concussion. Wilson had an incredible 17/1 TD/INT ratio last year, while the other quarterbacks had a negative 3/12 ratio. This year if Wilson goes down, the depth at the QB position is better with heralded redshirt freshman Mike Glennon backing him up. The offense will also benefit from the return of Owen Spencer and Jarvis Williams at the wideout position. The Wolfpack finished strong down the stretch of the season, going 4-0 SU in their final four regular season games, outscoring those opponents 127-72 and winning by an average margin of +13.8 points per game. The Pack returns 14 starters, including 7 on defense, with a stout front line with three returning starters led by Alan Michael Cash. The Wolfpack is also 9-2 in home openers.

South Carolina limped to the end of their season last year going 0-3 SU/ATS in their final three games, losing by a total of 88 points. The Gamecocks return just 11 starters, including five on offense and their quarterback position is held down by Stephen Garcia who rotated in and out of the lineup last year. Three of the five returning starters on offense are on the O-Line, so the skill positions are young and inexperienced. Defensively, the Gamecocks will depend on a solid linebacking corps led by Eric Norwood and Rodney Paulk, but overall they lost four of their top seven tacklers from last year. The Gamecocks were just 2-4 on the road last season, including a 31-10 loss in the Outback Bowl, and they scored only 6, 14, and 10 points in those final three road games.

Play NC STATE (-).

Minnesota is 2-0 so far in the preseason, but they have been fortunate in the turnover department as they have yet to lose a fumble or throw an interception. This will likely change tonight with Brett Favre expected to play the entire first half. He has only played one series so far this season and is still learning the offense and will likely struggle this evening.

The Texans are coming off a poor performance at home last week when they lost 38-14 to New Orleans as a 3-point home favorite. Houston played a sloppy game with a 3-0 turnover deficit and this should ensure more focus tonight, especially with the starters playing into the second half, which includes QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson who is one of the most valuable players in the league. Backup quarterback Rex Grossman is out, however third-stringer Dan Orlovsky has plenty of experience in the league and has actually played better than Grossman during the past few seasons.

Play TEXANS (-).

The Cowboys are coming off an emotional national TV win last Friday night which was the first game in their new stadium and it is hard to imagine Dallas will be as focused tonight after that easy 30-10 win. The Cowboys will likely play their starters the entire first half, but they will be without WR Roy Williams who was injured in practice this week. Dallas will also have an inexperienced QB rotation in the second half with two true rookies likely seeing minutes.

San Francisco is 2-0 in the preseason and they qualify in numerous strong technical indicators which plays on big underdogs that have performed well so far in the exhibition season. Dogs of more than a field goal are 25-7 ATS after back-to-back wins, including Green Bay and Miami

The Braves and Phillies continue their series Saturday night as Atlanta looks to try to get closer to Philadelphia. They send Derek Lowe to the hill against a team he's had great success against. Lowe is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Phillies in two starts so far this season. Over his career the righthander is 5-2 with a 2.62 ERA and a WHIP of 1.107. Philly hits just .182 against Lowe with Raul Ibanez (2-22), Ryan Howard (3-22), Matt Stairs (2-15), Greg Dobbs (1-12), Shane Victorino (2-11), Jayson Werth (1-9), Carlos Ruiz (1-8) and Eric Bruntlett (0-4) struggling the most.

Cliff Lee goes for the Phillies and while he's put up good numbers so far, he has faced mainly weak offensive lineups in the National league. In limited at-bats, Atlanta is hitting .321 against the lefty with Omar Infante (8-20), Garret Anderson (7-17), Chipper Jones (1-3) and Matt Diaz (1-3) hitting Lee the hardest. The Braves have been smacking left handed starters around this season, going 27-18 against them, while averaging 5.3 runs per game and hitting .278 as a team.

Play BRAVES (+1.5 runline).

The Patriots are coming off a poor performance versus Cincinnati last week when New England lost outright 7-6 as a 6½ -point home favorite. This should ensure a focused effort tonight, especially with the starting units playing extended minutes. Tom Brady and company are expected to play the entire first half and maybe into the third quarter. The Patriots have also spent more time this week game planning for the Redskins which indicates that head coach Bill Belichick is treating this like a regular season game.

Both teams will be without their starting quarterbacks tonight, but Cincinnati is in a much better position with J.T. O

Rookie Mark Sanchez will make his first start tonight for the Jets after a solid showing in his debut last week. Sanchez completed three of four passes for 88 yards versus the Rams last week, including a 48-yard gain on his first play in relief of Kellen Clemens. While the starting quarterback position is still undecided, Sanchez has reportedly looked strong in camp this week.

New York head coach Rex Ryan commented, "I think he (Sanchez) earned the reps with the [starters]. It might have been done on paper that way in pencil, but he had to earn it. The guy had to earn his reps, and I think he

Both teams expect to play their starters for the majority of the first half, but Arizona should have the overall edge in the second half tonight. The Cardinals have a better backup quarterback rotation with former starter Matt Leinart and 7-year veteran Brian St. Pierre who had a solid 100.4 QB rating in the preseason last year. Arizona also qualifies in a solid 33-17 ATS preseason angle which plays on small home favorites coming off a SU loss.

Another advantage the Cardinals will have in this game is on defense as new defensive coordinator Bill Davis is working on new blitz packages. Blitzing defenses is a subtle edge in the preseason that often goes overlooked.

Play CARDINALS (-).

Brett Favre will make his debut tonight in Minnesota, but this will not help the team as Favre has limited practice and the gameplan will be extra conservative. Tarvaris Jackson is expected to play the majority of the second and third quarters, but Sage Rosenfels will not play due to an injury. This means John David Booty will see more action than normal and he has very little NFL experience.

Kansas City is coming off a poor showing versus Houston last Saturday and new head coach Todd Haley is looking for a better effort tonight. First-year head coaches usually put more emphasis on winning in the preseason, especially after a SU loss, and Kansas City fits a solid 60% ATS situation based on that premise.

The Chiefs also have an excellent quarterback rotation with three regular season starters seeing minutes tonight with Matt Cassel, Brodie Croyle, and Tyler Thigpen.

Play CHIEFS (+).

The Detroit Tigers host the Mariners in a crucial series for both teams. Detroit will send Rick Porcello to the hill and he is 10-7 with a 4.34 ERA on the season and he enters with a 2.45 ERA and 0.886 WHIP in his past three starts. Porcello is already 2-0 versus the Mariners this season with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.250 WHIP with a 7/1 strikeout/walk ratio. Ken Griffey Jr. (1-6), Russell Branyan (0-3), and Franklin Gutierrez (0-3) have all struggled against the righthander. Seattle has lost four of their last six games and they bring a 29-30 road record into this game. The Mariners have cooled off offensively since their hot run earlier this month and Seattle has scored 2 runs or less in five of their past six games.

The Tigers have been a strong home team this season with a 38-19 SU record (compared to just 24-36 on the road) and Detroit presents extra value on the +1.5 runline as 9 of their past 18 losses have come by exactly one run. They will have to face Felix Hernandez who is 12-4 with a 2.72 ERA on the year, but Detroit is hitting .290 against the righty with Curtis Granderson (9-22), Placido Polanco (6-15), Miguel Cabrera (4-8), and Clete Thomas (1-3) having the most success. The Tigers might also be bolstered by the addition of Aubrey Huff who was acquired on Monday.

Play TIGERS (+1.5 runline).

This is the first preseason game for both teams which means the offenses will likely struggle and points will be at a premium. In this case, the value lies with the Panthers at a full field goal underdog price. Both head coaches have shown the tendency to go for the win in exhibition games; however Carolina holds a substantial edge at quarterback, especially in the second half.

New York is expected to play Eli Manning and the starters only about 12-15 plays, followed by veteran David Carr. The bulk of the work will go to second-year QB Andre Woodson from Kentucky and he has very little experience in the league, throwing only nine passes last year in the preseason, completing only 33% of them with a miserable 9.3 QB rating.

Meanwhile, Carolina has an intense competition for the #2 quarterback spot which means both veterans Matt Moore and Josh McCown should see extended minutes after starter Jake Delhomme leaves the game.

Play PANTHERS (+).

Both teams enter with new coaches, however the Rams will have more motivation to win tonight after going a combined 5-27 SU the past two regular seasons. The Rams also have a deep quarterback rotation with Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller, and Brock Berlin. The starters are expected to play at least one quarter tonight, but QB Marc Bulger indicated he might see extended action, possibly 2+ quarters.

Meanwhile, New York head coach Rex Ryan indicated that neither starter Kellen Clemens nor Mark Sanchez, who will be first off the bench, will play after halftime. In fact, Ryan said, "I would expect [third-stringer Erik] Ainge to play the majority of the game." The coach wants to limit the exposure of the two quarterbacks dueling for the starting job because the Jets will be starting an injury-depleted offensive line. Center Nick Mangold (knee) and right tackle Damien Woody (head) will not play. Two other starters will also sit out: cornerback Darrelle Revis (hamstring) and nose tackle Kris Jenkins (calf).

The Jets might also be short-handed on special teams as kicker Jay Feely practiced on a limited basis Wednesday because of a groin injury. As a precaution, the Jets signed undrafted free agent Parker Douglass, who was signed by Cleveland on May 15 and waived on July 31.

Play RAMS (+).

The Raiders have struggled since their Super Bowl appearance in 2003 and they have now won 5 games or less in each of the past six regular seasons with records of 5-11, 4-12, 2-14, 4-12, 5-11, and 4-12 for a combined mark of 24-72 (.267) SU. This is exactly the type of team that needs to win in the preseason and usually plays with more motivation.

Head coach Tom Cable appears to be bringing this mindset into his first preseason as a head coach and he has declared numerous starting positions up for grab. "It's on," Cable said. "And everyone's got to fight for a job to get this thing down to 53, the right 53, and inside of that, obviously, who your starters are and so forth."

One of those positions is quarterback and the Raiders enter the preseason with an incredibly deep QB position as all four players (JaMarcus Russell, Jeff Garcia, Charlie Frye, and Bruce Gradkowski) have started regular season games. Russell and the first team offense is expected to play one quarter tonight and Frye and Gradkowski will play the remainder of the game as Jeff Garcia continues to recover from a calf injury.

The Cowboys are also expected to play their starters about one quarter and Tony Romo will be followed by veteran QB Jon Kitna. However, the Cowboys have a tremendous drop off in experience for the second half of play as both quarterbacks Rudy Carpenter (Arizona State) and Stephen McGee (Texas A&M) are true rookies that have never played in a NFL game. They will be facing a hostile environment on the road and might also be facing a Raiders

Seattle's offense continues to put up big numbers at home and will face John Danks who is just 9-8 with a 4.23 ERA this season. In his last three starts, Danks is 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA, giving up 15 runs in his last 19.3 innings of work. Danks doesn

The Rays dominated Kansas City last night in an easy 8-2 victory and Tampa Bay once again presents value on the runline today. Tampa is now a perfect 7-0 SU versus the Royals this season and they have outscored KC 42-18 in those seven games. Jeff Niemann takes the mound for the Rays today and he dominated Kansas City earlier this season on June 3rd when Niemann pitched a complete game shutout, winning 9-0 and allowing just two hits.

Kansas City sends Bruce Chen to the mound and he has been horrible this season with a 6.60 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his six starts with a 1-5 SU team record. Chen has been particularly bad in this four road starts with an 8.05 ERA and 1.842 WHIP.

Tampa is 15.5 games ahead of Kansas City in the standings and the Rays have been a much stronger team at home the past two seasons, including a 32-17 SU record this year, compared to just 24-30 SU on the road. The -1.5 runline also presents value as it takes the big favorite down to more reasonable price and Kansas City has been repeatedly blown out this season, with each of their past eight losses coming by at least 2+ runs.

Play RAYS (-1.5 runline).

The Rays welcome the Kansas City Royals to town, a team they have already beat six times this season. Tampa sends lefty David Price to the hill where he's 3-4 with a 5.60 ERA; however Price has performed better at home with a 3-1 record and a 3.04 ERA in five starts. He's yet to face the Royals who are 14-22 vs. left handed pitchers and 17-29 on the road this season. They are batting just .240 on the road and averaging a paltry 3.5 runs per game.

Kansas City sends Sidney Ponson to the hill where he's 1-6 with a 6.79 ERA. On the road Ponson has yet to win this season, going 0-2 with a horrendous 15.27 ERA in two starts. He's given up 13 runs in 7.7 innings of work and is 8-9 all time vs. the Rays with a 4.35 ERA. The last time he was in Tampa he gave up 5 runs and 12 hits in five innings in a 7-3 loss. The Rays hit .321 against him with Gabe Kapler (5-16), Carlos Pena (5-12), BJ Upton (7-12), Gabe Gross (4-7), Ben Zobrist (2-6) and Jason Bartlett (1-3) doing the best. The Rays will want to take out a lot of frustrations after losing a series to the Yankees and the Rays have a day of rest, so they should be focused tonight. Tampa stands 14.5 games ahead of Kansas City in the standings and the Rays have been a much stronger team at home the past two seasons, including a 31-17 SU record this year, compared to just 24-30 SU on the road.

The -1.5 runline also presents value as takes the big favorite down to basically a Pick

Despite back-to-back wins, the Royals are still one of the worst teams in the league and enter with just a 40-59 SU record tonight, including just 17-27 SU on the road. Kansas City is favored tonight because their ace Zach Greinke is on the mound, but the Royals are just 2-8 SU as a team in Greinke

The Indians have underachieved this season, but it appears they are starting to turn things around after a three-game sweep at Seattle this past weekend. Cleveland

The White Sox look to avoid the four-game sweep tonight and despite their three straight wins the Tigers continue to struggle offensively and they have scored 4 runs or less in seven of their past nine games.

Chicago remains an underrated team in the second half of the season as they entered this series on a solid 22-11 SU run and the Sox should have success tonight against a struggling Rick Porcello who has an awful 9.45 ERA and 2.251 WHIP in his past three starts for the Tigers, averaging just 4.4 innings per start.

Porcello has also struggled at home this season with a 4.71 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in eight starts with an awful 23/19 strikeout/walk ratio. His 6-2 SU team record in those eight home games has been extremely misleading and it now helps establish value with the White Sox tonight. The +1.5 runline also provides extra value as Chicago has only lost 9 of their past 42 games by more than a single run, while Detroit has only won once in their past 9 games by more than two runs.

Play WHITE SOX (+1.5 runline).

Toronto hosts the Cleveland Indians for a three-game set beginning Tuesday night. The Blue Jays turn to Brett Cecil who is 3-1 with a 5.40 ERA this season, but is coming off a 2-0 shutout of the Orioles where he went six innings, giving up just four hits and striking out five and walking only two. This will be the second time Cecil has seen Cleveland and on May 5th in Toronto he went six innings, giving up two runs and six hits while striking out six and walking none in a 10-6 no-decision victory versus the Tribe. Cecil managed to hold Grady Sizemore (0-3), Shin Soo Choo (0-3) and Matt LaPorta (0-2) hitless. The Indians are 9-13 against lefties and 16-29 in all games on the road this year.

Cleveland sends Cliff Lee to the mound where he's had a tough season going 5-9 with a 3.31 ERA. Lee is 1-2 with a 2.86 ERA in his last three starts, but he has already lost against Toronto at home in April when he gave up four runs and seven hits in just five innings of work. Lee is 1-4 all-time with a 4.37 ERA against the Jays with his team going 3-5 SU in his 8 starts. Toronto as a team is hitting .309 against the lefty with Marco Scutaro (6-17), Kevin Millar (5-14), Scott Rolen (5-9), John McDonald (3-8), Lyle Overbay (4-8) and Jose Bautista (1-2) hitting Lee extremely well. Toronto is 27-19 at home and is backed by a bullpen with a 3.39 ERA at home. The Jays have the clear advantage against Cleveland's bullpen that is sporting a weak 5.93 ERA on the road with 11 blown saves in 21 chances this season.

The +1.5 run line also presents extra value with the Blue Jays as a home underdog tonight as Toronto has lost by more than two runs only once in their past 14 games, while Cleveland has won only 5 times in their past 28 games by more than a single run.

Play BLUE JAYS (+1.5 run line).