Arizona State surprised many by opening the season with a 10-3 record.  Since their hot start, the Sun Devils are just 1-4 over their last five games.  Arizona State is simply in terrible current form, and that has coincided with the step-up in class.  The Sun Devils are just 1-3 in their last four road games, including 0-2 on the road in conference play.  All three of those losses have come by 7 points or more with their average loss coming by 10.3 points per game.  Arizona State’s defense has been terrible away from home all season; the Sun Devils are giving up 72.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 40.4% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, their defense has been even worse while allowing 82.4 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 46.9% shooting from three-point land.

California returns home off three straight road losses, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance in this game.  The Golden Bears are a perfect 11-0 at home where they own an incredible +18.1 point differential this season.  California is averaging 78.5 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  California did lose Tyrone Wallace to a hand injury, but he was playing out of position at point guard when he’s a natural wing player.  Wallace’s absence will open up the California offense because they’ll be led by true point guard, Sam Singer.  California is the better team and they are desperate for win, so we’ll lay the points with the Golden Bears in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play CALIFORNIA (-).

Villanova is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Seton Hall with a 16-2 record.  The Wildcats have been unable to beat Seton Hall by margin over the last few meetings as three of the last four meetings have been decided by single digits.  Villanova beat Seton Hall 72-63 on January 6th; that game was close throughout and we expect tonight’s game to play out the same way.  Villanova was held to just 36.2% (21-58) shooting from the field and 18.2% (4-22) from three-point land.  The Wildcats won the game at the free throw line where they were +11 points.  But that game was on their home floor where they get the benefit of the whistle.  That won’t be the case tonight with the rematch on Seton Hall’s home court.  

Seton Hall returns home off an 81-72 win at Providence as 6-point underdogs on Saturday afternoon.  The Pirates are now home underdogs, and teams in this situation are strong pointspread propositions.  Seton Hall also lost their previous home game, so that makes this situation even stronger, especially in this pointspread range.  The Pirates play on a very strong home court where they are 8-1 this season, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance in this game.  Seton Hall’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 64.9 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field.  The Pirates’ offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 73.7 points per game.  Seton Hall matches-up well with Villanova, so we’ll back the Pirates on Wednesday night.

9* Play SETON HALL (+).

Detroit is just 1-3 over their last four games, but the opponents they played had a lot to do with that losing record; the Pistons lost to the Spurs, Grizzlies, and Bulls.  But they also beat the Warriors in between, and the Memphis loss came on a buzzer beater, so the 1-3 record looks worse than it actually is.  Detroit is 22-19 on the season, and they already beat Houston 116-105 earlier this season.  The Pistons’ offense is in good current form as they are averaging 103.4 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field over their last five games.  Detroit holds a significant defensive edge in this game as well.  The Pistons are holding opponents to 99.5 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land.  To compare, the Rockets are allowing 105.3 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.

Houston returns home off back-to-back games in Los Angeles against the Lakers and Clippers.  The Rockets split those games with their loss being a 140-132 defeat in overtime to the Clippers.  Houston trailed that game by 14 points going into the fourth quarter before rallying back to tie the game.  But that game took a toll on Houston, and they won’t have much energy left for tonight’s game.  The Rockets may also be without point guard Patrick Beverley who re-injured his ankle against the Clippers.  He missed shootaround this morning, and most reports say he will miss this game.  Houston’s defense is giving up 104.5 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field at home this season.  Detroit’s offense matches-up extremely well against Houston’s defense, so we’ll take Detroit plus the points on Wednesday night.

10* Play PISTONS (+).

Butler seeks revenge tonight for an earlier season home loss to Providence.  The Bulldogs blew an 11-point halftime lead in that game after allowing a season-high 56 points to Providence in the second half; Butler lost that game 81-73.  Butler’s offense has been phenomenal this season as they are averaging 84.2 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field and 36% shooting form three-point land.  Butler leads the Big East in scoring, field goal percentage, fewest turnovers, and assist/turnover ratio.  Overall, the Bulldogs’ offense ranks 13th in the country, so they certainly have an elite offensive team.  The same cannot be said of Providence, especially the way they’ve been playing in recent games.

Providence is 1-2 SU over their last three games, and they could be on an 0-3 slide if it wasn’t for a last-second win at Creighton.  The Friars are mired in a terrible offensive slump; they are shooting just 32% from the field and 19% from three-point land over their last three games.  After five Big East games, Providence is the worst shooting team (37.5%) in the conference, and they are ninth out of ten in 3-point shooting at 29%.  “It’s clear that we need to address our shot selection and just be much more disciplined and focused,” said Providence head coach Ed Cooley.  “We need some guys to pick it up, for sure.”  Butler is simply playing better basketball right now, so we’ll back the Bulldogs in this revenge spot on Tuesday night.

10* Play BUTLER (+).

Oklahoma is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Iowa State ranked #1 in the country with a 15-1 record.  The Sooners have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Cyclones is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma.  In their last three meetings against Iowa State, the Sooners are just 1-2 with their lone win coming by just 4 points on their strong home court in a game they trailed at the half.  Oklahoma will be playing their third game in six days, with two of those games coming on the road.  The Sooners haven’t been as dominant on the road recently; they survived by 2 points at Oklahoma State, lost in overtime at Kansas, and they won by 3 points at Hawaii.  Overall, the Sooners’ defense is giving up 85 points per game on the road this season.

Iowa State is also have a terrific season as they come into this game with a 13-4 record.  The Cyclones are 8-1 at home where they own an excellent +15.5 point differential on the season.  Iowa State’s defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to just 41.2% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Cyclones’ offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 87.4 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field.  Iowa State is returning home off back-to-back road games, and since they also lost their last home game, we expect a peak performance here.  We’ll back the Cyclones in this game on Monday night.

10* Play IOWA STATE (-).

Boston has played excellent basketball in their last three games.  The Celtics are 3-0 SU and ATS in those games while scoring a total of 339 points.  Prior to their last three wins, Boston was 1-6 SU and ATS over their previous seven games.  The Celtics are averaging 110.2 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Boston will face a Dallas defense that has given up 108 points or more in three of their last four games.  The Celtics lost 106-102 to Dallas at home earlier this season, but the Celtics blew an 18-point lead in that game.  The Mavericks out-shot the Celtics 51.4%-41.3% from the field and 35%-30.8% from three-point land and still only won the game by 4 points.   

Dallas played on Sunday in San Antonio and the Mavericks got embarrassed in a 112-83 blowout loss.  The Mavericks will now play on a back-to-back set while also playing their third game in four nights.  Dallas just played four games against Cleveland, Oklahoma City, Chicago, and San Antonio.  This is a natural letdown spot for a veteran team like Dallas, especially since they are playing a young team like Boston.  Head coach Rick Carlisle said this prior to Dallas’ 4-game gauntlet: “An extremely difficult schedule, there’s no doubt about that. This is the kind of stretch that challenges a group.”  The Mavericks failed miserably by going 1-3, so it’s hard to imagine Dallas being at their best for this game.  We’ll back Boston in this game on Monday night.    

9* Play CELTICS (-).

Seattle is 9-2 over their last eleven games after opening the season with a 2-4 record in their first six games.  Aside from last week’s game in frigid Minnesota where the Seahawks scored just 10 points, Seattle’s offense has been fantastic this season.  They’ve scored 29 points or more in seven of their last nine games, including 35 points or more in four of those games.  Overall, Seattle is averaging 25.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 24.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play away from home.  Seattle’s defense is in terrific current form as they’ve allowed a total of 64 points in their last six games.  Granted, they only played one potent offense (Arizona) during that span, but allowing just 10.7 points per game during a stretch of games is still pretty impressive.  

Carolina obviously had an excellent regular season where they went 15-1, including a 27-23 win at Seattle back in Week 6.  But the Panthers actually trailed 23-14 before scoring two touchdowns over the final 3:55 of the game to pull out the win.  Carolina also went into that game off their bye, so they had two weeks to prepare for that game.  The Panthers have the same luxury for this game, but Seattle is playing much better football now than they were back then.  Carolina’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak collection of opposing offenses that only averaged 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  Against good offenses, the Panthers gave up 29 points to Green Bay, 38 points to New Orleans, and 35 points to the New York Giants.  Carolina’s offense also faced poor defenses that gave up 24.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season; Seattle’s defense is allowing 7.8 points per game less than the opponents the Panthers faced.  Seattle is the better overall team, so we’ll take the Seahawks plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

San Diego State is a shell of the team they’ve had the last couple of seasons.  The Aztecs had two fifth-year seniors and a fourth-year junior in the starting five last season.  They brought two more fourth-year juniors off the bench.  This year, San Diego State starts two freshmen and a sophomore, and they bring another freshman off the bench.  Their youth has shown throughout the season, especially on the offensive end of the court.  San Diego State is only averaging 65.6 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Aztecs had an extremely difficult time scoring points against Boise State’s defense with a veteran team; they were held to just 46 points in the last two meetings.  Now they have a worse offense, so it’s hard to imagine the young and inexperienced Aztecs having much offensive success in tonight’s game.   

Boise State has been a terrific team over the last three seasons.  The Broncos have won 21 games or more the last three years, and they are set to eclipse their 25 wins of a season ago.  Boise State is an experienced and veteran team that has an efficient offense and a strong, half-court defense.  The Broncos are 13-4 on the season, including a perfect 9-0 at home.  Three of their four losses have come against two of the best teams in the country: Arizona twice and Michigan State.  Boise State is averaging 80.1 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 34.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Boise State is the better team with the superior offense, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Air Force plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Falcons play at one of the slowest paces in the country with their Princeton offense.  They combine that with a solid defense that is holding opponents to 42.4% shooting from the field and 32.8% shooting from three-point land this season.  Air Force is 3-3 against UNLV in the last six meetings, and in the games in which the Rebels primarily played man-to-man defense, the Falcons averaged 32 points in the paint and they won two of three games.  But UNLV played zone defense in the other games, and they got the better of Air Force.  “If you believe what you read, they won’t play zone,” Air Force Dave Pilipovich said.

UNLV fired head coach Dave Rice earlier this week, and Todd Simon is the current interim coach.  The Rebels responded with an 86-74 win over New Mexico in Simon’s first game, but we expect regression off that performance.  UNLV is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Rebels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, UNLV’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Rebels will not get their preferred style of play tonight against Air Force, and as noted above, UNLV is unlikely to play zone defense because Simon wants to play at a fast pace and he doesn’t want his players burnt out on the defensive end of the court.  Air Force’s style will frustrate UNLV, so we’ll take the generous points with the Falcons in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play AIR FORCE (+).

Portland has played excellent basketball in their last three games.  The Trail Blazers upset the Thunder 115-110 as home underdogs last Sunday night, they beat the Jazz 99-85 on Wednesday night, and last night they cashed a Best Bet winner for us in their 116-104 win over Brooklyn.  The Trail Blazers are averaging 107.2 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the field and 40.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Portland will face a terrible Philadelphia defense that is in terrible current form.  The Sixers have given up 108.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Portland is playing full of confidence right now, and they are catching the Sixers at the perfect time.   

Philadelphia is having a miserable season; they come into this game with an ugly 4-37 record.  The Sixers just played four home games against playoff-bound teams; Hawks, Raptors, Cavaliers, and Bulls.  Philadelphia gave tremendous effort in their last two games, especially their last against Chicago.  The Sixers led that game 62-46 at the half, but they ultimately lost 115-111 in overtime.  Five players scored in double figures; that has been a rare occurrence for the Sixers this season.  That’s a game that will linger with Philadelphia, especially considering how their season is going.  Portland is the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Trail Blazers in this game on Saturday night.    

9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-).

Kansas City romped in a 30-0 blowout win in Houston last week.  We cashed a Best Bet winner on the Chiefs in that game, and we’ll come right back with them once again this week.  Kansas City is a perfect 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last eleven games.  The Chiefs have won all eleven of those games by 4 points or more, and their average win has come by a whopping 16.4 points per game.  Kansas City ranks #3 on offense and #2 on defense in my efficiency metrics.  The Chiefs rank #1 in the NFL in overall efficiency based on my metrics while New England ranks #4.  However, the Patriots’ numbers were manufactured while they had a healthy team.  Kansas City has an excellent rushing offense, and they get a good match-up here against New England’s defense.  The Chiefs are averaging 128.4 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush.  That strong rushing attack will face a Patriots defense that ranked #10 in efficiency against the run this season.

New England comes into this game with a lot of question marks on both sides of the ball.  The Patriots’ offense has been a mess since losing Julian Edelman back in Week 10.  Edelman is slated to return for this game, but after missing two months of football, it would be surprising if he played like his old self.  Rob Gronkowski will be a game-time decision with knee and back issues, but even if he plays, his effectiveness may be limited because of a particular pain killing injection he received this week.  Those two guys make the Patriots’ offense go, so quarterback Tom Brady may be hindered in this game, especially since the offensive line play was horrendous in their last few games.  Kansas City has a strong defense that matches-up well with New England; the Chiefs give up 16.9 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  New England’s defense is also in flux after Chandler Jones was hospitalized for a reaction to synthetic marijuana earlier this week.  This should be a low-scoring game that is decided by a field goal, so we’ll take the points with the Chiefs in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play CHIEFS (+).

Portland has played excellent basketball in their last two games.  The Trail Blazers upset the Thunder 115-110 as home underdogs last Sunday night, and they beat the Jazz 99-85 on Wednesday night.  The impressive part about those two wins is that Portland was able to play two completely different styles of basketball; the Oklahoma City game was played at a quick pace while the Utah game was a slow, half-court grinder.  Prior to their last two wins, Portland had lost three consecutive games.  But their opponents had a lot to do with those losses; the Warriors, Clippers, and Grizzlies all defeated Portland.  The Trail Blazers now travel to Brooklyn full of confidence, and they are catching the Nets at the perfect time.     

Brooklyn has has a miserable season; the Nets come into this game with an ugly 11-28 record.  Their head coach and general manager got fired earlier this week, and in their first game after, the Nets got embarrassed at home by the Spurs by 27 points (106-79).  Brooklyn responded in their next game as they beat the New York Knicks 110-104 as 3.5-point home underdogs on Wednesday night.  Brooklyn shot 52.3% (45-86) from the field and 52.9% (9-17) from three-point land in that game.  It was a complete team effort as six players scored in double figures; that has been a rare occurrence for the Nets this season.  Brooklyn is also playing with a limited lineup because of injuries, so it’s highly unlikely they can repeat their performance from the Knicks game.  Portland is the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Trail Blazers in this game on Friday night.    

10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-).

Sacramento hits the road after playing three consecutive home games; the Kings went just 1-2 SU in those games, including last night’s 109-97 loss to the Pelicans.  Sacramento must now hit the road, and play on a back-to-back set while playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  The Kings will face a Utah team that plays at an extremely slow pace while playing excellent team defense.  Sacramento has struggled mightily when held to less than 100 points this season.  In fact, the Kings are just 2-12 SU when scoring less than 100 points this season with their two wins coming by a combined 8 points.  Their average loss when held to less than 100 points has come by 11 points per game.  Sacramento is just 1-5 on the road when held to less than 100 points with those losses coming by 9.6 points per game.

Utah failed for us last night in their 99-85 loss in Portland, but we have no hesitation in coming right back with the Jazz for the same reasons.  Utah is playing much better now that Rudy Gobert is back on the court.  Gobert missed a month of action which totaled 18 games; the Jazz went just 7-11 in those games.  Since Gobert has returned to the starting lineup, Utah is 2-1 with their wins coming by 12 and 15 points.  The biggest difference with Gobert on the court has been the play of the Utah defense.  During that stretch without Gobert, the Jazz gave up 101 points per game while allowing 103 points or more eight times in their eleven losses.  In their last three games, Utah has given up a total of 256 points.  The Jazz are a perfect 2-0 at home when playing off a road loss the night before; Utah won those games by scores of 106-85 and 109-96.  We’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play JAZZ (-).

Connecticut is 11-4 on the season, but the Huskies are not in the best of current form right now.  They’ve won five of their last six games, but Connecticut is on an 0-3 ATS slide.  The Huskies were in a terrific situational spot for their last home game against Memphis, but they barely survived that game in an 81-78 win.  Now the Huskies must take to the road after playing six of their last nine games at home.  Connecticut has been playing without their starting center, Amida Brimah, due to a finger injury.  His absence has really affected Connecticut’s play on both ends of the court, especially inside the paint.  Tulsa has the big guys inside to take advantage of Brimah’s absence. 

Tulsa returned all five starters this season, including their top eight players from last year’s 24-win team.  Tulsa’s offense is explosive; they are averaging 74 points per game.  “We finally bought into Coach Haith’s system and the ball movement has been very good for us,” James Woodard said.  “We’re getting a lot of assists off each other and moving off the ball, that’s what they’ve been preaching. It’s hard for teams to guard if everybody’s clicking on all cylinders.”  Tulsa’s losses this season have come against strong teams like SMU, Cincinnati, South Carolina, and Oregon State.  Connecticut is a notch below those teams, and Tulsa matches-up extremely well with the Huskies.  We’ll back Tulsa in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play TULSA (+).

Utah is playing much better now that Rudy Gobert is back on the court.  Gobert missed a month of action which totaled 18 games; the Jazz went just 7-11 in those games.  Since Gobert has returned to the starting lineup, Utah is a perfect 2-0 with their wins coming by 12 and 15 points.  The biggest difference with Gobert on the court has been the play of the Utah defense.  During that stretch without Gobert, the Jazz gave up 101 points per game while allowing 103 points or more eight times in their eleven losses.  In the last two games, Utah gave up just 83 points to Miami and 74 points to the Los Angeles Lakers.  “It’s great, man,” Trey Burke said of Gobert’s return.  “He’s one of our defensive specialists, obviously an anchor back there. If a guy gets beat he can come over and clean it up. His rebounding ability and versatility. It’s great to have a guy like that back.”

Portland comes into this game off a 115-110 upset win over Oklahoma City as 7.5-point home underdogs.  The Trail Blazers have scored 223 points in their last two games despite shooting a terrible 40.8% (80-196) from the field.  Portland got the majority of their scoring from three-point land where they shot 40.3% (31-77), and from the free throw line where they converted 32 of their 42 attempts.  Portland will now face a team that plays at a slow pace while playing excellent team defense.  The Trail Blazers have struggled mightily when held to less than 100 points this season.  Portland is just 1-14 SU when scoring less than 100 points this season with their lone win coming by just 4 points as 9-point underdogs at Sacramento.  The Jazz will stifle the Portland offense with Gobert back on the court, so we’ll take Utah plus the points on Wednesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

La Salle comes into this game off a 61-57 upset home win over Dayton as 12-point underdogs on Saturday afternoon.  The Explorers actually trailed 43-36 with 8 minutes left to play before rallying to win that game.  That win ended a 7-game losing streak for La Salle, and all the points were scored by the starters.  Off such a game, the Explorers figure to regress sharply tonight, especially since they will be facing a focused Richmond team that will come with their best effort.  La Salle is an extremely shorthanded team because of injuries and suspensions; they only have six players in the mix.  La Salle starts four guards, and they simply get crushed on the boards, and they’ll be unable to overcome that in this game.

Richmond returns home after playing back-to-back road games; three of their last four games have come on the road.  The Spiders also lost their last home game to St. Joseph’s after blowing a halftime lead.  Richmond will be ready for a peak performance in this game, and they will simply overwhelm a thin La Salle team.  Richmond’s offense has been tremendous at home as they are averaging 81.9 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land.  La Salle’s defense is giving up 77 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 39.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Spiders on Wednesday night.   

9* Play RICHMOND (-).

San Antonio is one of the best teams in the NBA, but they come into this game off a blowout win in Brooklyn last night.  The Spurs beat the Nets 106-79 on Monday night in a game they virtually led from start to finish.  San Antonio shot a terrific 53.7% (44-82) from the field while eleven players scored at least 2 points in the game.  Despite the 27-point margin of victory, San Antonio had three starters play 24 minutes or more.  Head coach Gregg Popovich is known for resting his key players on the second night of back-to-back sets, so it wouldn’t be a shocker to see some guys sit this game out.  This is also just the second time all season in which the Spurs are playing a back-to-back road set; their last came way back in early November in games #3 and #4 when they beat the Knicks in a 94-84 lethargically played game.

Detroit comes into this game with two full days of rest, so they are the fresher team.  The Pistons are also in excellent current form as they’ve won three consecutive games, and four of their last five games overall.  Detroit has played terrific basketball at home where they are 13-5 this season while averaging 104.9 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land.  Detroit’s defense has been outstanding over their last five games; the Pistons held their opponents to just 91.2 points per game on 42.6% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Detroit plus the points on Tuesday night.

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Kansas is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at West Virginia ranked #1 in the country with a 14-1 record.  The Jayhawks have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Mountaineers is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Kansas.  In their last three meetings against West Virginia, the Jayhawks are just 1-2 with their lone win coming in overtime on their strong home court; they trailed by 14 points at the half in that game.  Kansas will be playing their second consecutive road game, and it comes on the heels of their 109-106 triple overtime home win over Oklahoma.  Kansas will also face 40 minutes of pressure from the Mountaineers who employ a relentless full-court press; the Jayhawks have yet to face a similar team this season.  West Virginia is #1 in the country in turnover percentage meaning they force their opponents into a lot of mistakes.  They also have the #2 three-point defense in the country; they hold their opponents to just 26.3% shooting from three-point land at home.

West Virginia is also have a terrific season as they come into this game with a 14-1 record.  The Mountaineers are a perfect 7-0 at home where they own an incredible +36.7 point differential on the season.  West Virginia’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 56.9 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field.  The Mountaineers’ offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 93.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field.  West Virginia is also tremendous on the glass as they rank #1 in offensive rebounding percentage which allows them to get a lot of second-chance points.  West Virginia matches-up extremely well with Kansas, so we’ll back the Mountaineers in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play WEST VIRGINIA (+).

Clemson had a surprising season by going undefeated at 14-0.  The Tigers were projected to be a year or two away from having a really good team after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 10-3 team that beat Oklahoma 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  Clemson was hardly challenged this season, but their two closest games came against the two best defense they faced; they beat Louisville 20-17 and they beat Notre Dame 24-22.  The Tigers will now face the best defense in the country, so their offense has an extremely difficult challenge ahead of them.  Alabama’s defense allowed just 13.4 points per game on 4.1 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide had even better defensive numbers away from home where they gave up just 12 points per game.  Clemson’s offense and quarterback Deshaun Watson may pose a threat to Alabama’s defense early on because the Tigers run the spread and Watson is the best mobile quarterback in the country.  “I think mobile quarterbacks are a problem for every defense, not just us,” said Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.  “We’re maybe better at stopping the traditional-style offenses.”  While that is concerning, it also means Watson is going to take more powerful hits than normal, and that will take a toll on him as this game goes on.

Alabama went 13-1 this season with their lone loss coming back in Week 3 against Mississippi as 9-point favorites.  Twelve of their thirteen wins this season have come by 13 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 23.1 points per game.  Alabama’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 204.4 yards per game on the ground and 219.4 yards per game thru the air.  Alabama ran for 215 yards or more in eight games this season, and they won those games by an average of 18.9 points per game.  Clemson’s defense allowed 130 rushing yards or more seven times this season, and the Tigers gave up 25.3 points per game in those games.  Clemson’s defense gave up just 20 points per game overall, so their defense is vulnerable against good rushing attacks, and Alabama has one of the best in the country with Derrick Henry.  Overall, Alabama ranked 9th in offensive and defensive efficiency combined while Clemson ranked 28th.  That’s a significant difference, and it clearly shows that Alabama is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide in the championship game on Monday night.

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

Villanova is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Butler with a 13-2 record.  The Wildcats have been unable to beat Butler by margin in Hinkle Fieldhouse, winning 76-73 in overtime two years ago and 68-65 last year.  Butler is simply a bad matchup for Villanova because of the way the Wildcats play.  The way to beat the Bulldogs is with guards that can break down a defense off the dribble.  Villanova’s Ryan Arcidiacono and Jalen Brunson are terrific guards, but Villanova’s offense is not based on dribble penetration.  The Wildcats want to get out and run in transition, but when forced into half-court offense, they run set plays that look to free open a spot-up shooter.  Villanova’s style of play has limited their effectiveness against Butler, and we expect that to be the case once again tonight. 

Butler returns home off back-to-back road games in which they went 1-1.  The Bulldogs lost their previous home game to Providence after blowing an 11-point halftime lead.  Butler plays on a very strong home court where they are 7-1 this season, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance in this game.  The Bulldogs’ defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 38.6% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land.  Butler’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 94.8 points per game on 54.3% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting form three-point land.  Villanova’s defense has been much worse on the road this season; they are allowing 76.3 points per game on 48.5% shooting form the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  Butler is extremely tough to beat on their home court, and since they are getting points in this game, we’ll back the Bulldogs on Sunday night.

9* Play BUTLER (+).

North Carolina has been impressive this season, and the Tar Heels come into this game with a 14-2 record.  They’ve scored 78 points or more in 15 of their 16 games this season which is incredible.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Tar Heels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, North Carolina’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Tar Heels will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Syracuse plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  North Carolina has been held to less than 70 points just once this season, and that resulted in a loss at Northern Iowa.  Syracuse has held all nine of their home opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time this season.  North Carolina scored a season-high 106 points at Florida State in their last game, so regression is expected in this game.

Syracuse is 10-6 on the season, and they come into this game on a 3-game losing streak with the last being a 74-73 overtime loss at home to Clemson.  Off that loss, and with head coach Jim Boeheim returning after serving his 9-game suspension, we expect a peak performance by Syracuse in this game.  The Orange play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense.  Syracuse is holding their opponents to just 59.1 points per game on 38% shooting from the field and 30.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Syracuse also matches-up extremely well with North Carolina.  The Tar Heels score 61% of their points from 2-point range, but Syracuse only allows 49% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  The Orange score 37% of their points from three-point land, and 37% of the points scored on North Carolina come from beyond the arc.  Syracuse’s style will frustrate North Carolina, so we’ll back the Orange in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play SYRACUSE (+).

Memphis is 10-4 on the season, but the Tigers have played nothing in terms of competition.  Some of their wins have come against the likes of Southern Mississippi, Grambling State, Texas-Arlington, SE Missouri State, Southern, Indiana-Purdue, and Nicholls State.  Memphis is taking a big step-up in class against Connecticut in this game, and they may be doing so without Kedren Johnson who has a nagging shoulder injury; he has averaged 15.5 points per game against Connecticut in his career.  Memphis’ defense has been atrocious away from home this season; the Tigers are giving up 86 points per game.  Memphis has only played one true road game, and they lost by 10 points at South Carolina. 

Connecticut comes into this game off 55-53 home loss to Temple on Tuesday night.  The Huskies played their worst offensive game of the season as they only shot 31.6% (18-57) from the field and 20% (4-20) from three-point land.  Connecticut was forced into a half-court scrum by Temple, but the Huskies’ offense will play much better in this game since Memphis likes to play at a quick pace.  Connecticut is averaging 83.1 points per game on 52.5% shooting from the field and 36.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  Connecticut’s defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 58.8 points per game on 36% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Connecticut in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play CONNECTICUT (-).

Kansas City is a perfect 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last ten games.  The Chiefs have won all ten of those games by 4 points or more, and their average win has come by a whopping +15 points per game.  Kansas City already beat the Texans this season; the Chiefs won that game 27-20 in Houston way back in Week 1.  That game was not nearly as close as the final score indicates; Kansas City led 27-9 at the half, and they led by an average of +13.5 points per minute.  That was a dominating performance, and I expect a repeat performance in this game today.  Kansas City sweeps the board in the 22 advanced metrics I use in the NFL; that is extremely rare, especially in the playoffs.  The Chiefs hold a significant edge on both sides of the ball in terms of efficiency; Kansas City ranks #3 on offense and #2 on defense while Houston ranks #21 on offense and #16 on defense.  The Chiefs rank #1 in the NFL in overall efficiency based on my metrics while Houston ranks #20 which is the lowest of all 12 playoff teams this season.  Kansas City has an excellent rushing offense, and they get a good match-up here against Houston’s defense.  The Chiefs are averaging 128 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  That strong rushing attack will face a Texans defense that was better against the pass (#7) than against the run (#13) in efficiency this season.

Houston needed to end the season on a 3-game winning streak just to make the playoffs.  The Texans beat three also-rans in the Colts, Titans, and Jaguars.  Houston played back-to-back perfect games in their last two as they beat Jacksonville and Tennessee by a combined score of 64-12.  The Texans led the Jaguars by an average of 11.1 points per minute, and they led the Titans by an average of 19.1 points per minute.  Those two performances set Houston up to regress sharply, even though this is a playoff game.  Prior to Houston’s last three wins, they also beat a New York Jets team that was on a 1-3 SU slide and they beat a New Orleans team that was just 1-5 SU on the road going into that game.  Houston also won at Cincinnati, but that was a phony win as they only had 256 yards of total offense while scoring just 3 total points thru the first three quarters of the game.  The wins looked good on the scoreboard, but Houston’s opponents had a lot to do with it.  The Texans only average 21.2 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Chiefs are only giving up 17.9 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Kansas City is simply the superior team, so lay the points with the Chiefs in this Wild Card game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

Wichita State comes into this game with just a 9-5 record.  Prior to the season, most projections had the Shockers with just one or two losses at this point.  But an early injury to star guard Fred VanVleet saw Wichita State open the season at just 2-4.  Wichita State is 7-1 since VanVleet returned, but the Shockers have played five of those games at home and two of those wins only came by 3 and 6 points.  They also lost in overtime at Seton Hall, so the Shockers have not been a dominating team by any means this season, even with VanVleet on the court.  Wichita State must now hit the road where they are giving up 67 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field and 38.6% shooting from three-point land.  Those numbers are way up from previous years, and they indicate that Wichita State may have been a tad overvalued coming into this season.  

Southern Illinois has played much better basketball this season; the Salukis come into this game with a solid 14-2 record.  Their two losses this season have come by a combined 7 points.  Southern Illinois returns home off a blowout road win at Bradley, and they are getting no respect as home underdogs in this game.  Southern Illinois’ offense is averaging 78 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field at home this season, and they combine that with a defense that has held their last five opponents to just 40.6% shooting from the field and 24.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Salukis are still flying way under the radar, and this is their biggest game in a few years.  We’ll back Southern Illinois in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (+).

Michigan is 12-3 on the season, but the Wolverines have failed miserably when stepping-up in class.  Michigan’s wins have come against the likes of Northern Michigan, Elon, Houston Baptist, Delaware State, Northern Kentucky, Youngstown State, and Bryant.  The Wolverines lost to Xavier by 16 points, they lost to Connecticut by 14 points, and they lost to SMU by 24 points.  Michigan is now taking a big step-up in class against Purdue in this game, and they might be doing so without their leading scorer, Chris Lavert, who is questionable with a lower leg injury.  Michigan is heavily reliant on their 3-point shooting as 42.1% of their points scored come from beyond the arc.  But the Wolverines will face an extremely difficult matchup here as Purdue only allows 26.7% of the points scored on them to come from three-point land.   

Purdue comes into this game off a 70-63 home loss to Iowa on Saturday night.  The Boilermakers blew a 17-point halftime lead in that game after getting out-scored 50-26 in the second half.  “We need to use the Iowa game as a wakeup call and a way to focus more on details,” Kendall Stephens said.  “There are things we have been overlooking. We can’t play through our offense. We have to build the foundation with defense.”  Purdue’s defense has been excellent all season, so we’ll just chalk-up that poor second half to a random outcome.  The Boilermakers have held their opponents to just 59.1 points per game on 34.8% shooting from the field and 28.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  Purdue’s offense has also been terrific at home this season where they are averaging 83 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Boilermakers in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play PURDUE (-).

Nevada has played much better basketball this season, and in fact, the Wolf Pack have already won 9 games; they went 9-22 overall last season.  A major reason for the turnaround is new head coach Eric Musselman who is well-regarded in coaching circles.  However, this is a difficult spot for Nevada after coming from behind to beat Wyoming 71-68 at home on Saturday night.  The Wolf Pack have been two different teams at home and on the road; they are just 1-5 in true road games this season.  Nevada has lost those games by an average of 11 points per game, and a major reason for that has been their terrible defense.  Nevada is giving up 80.8 points per game on the road this season, and their defense will have a difficult time slowing down a potent Bulldogs offense.

Fresno State comes into this game off a terrible 77-62 home loss to New Mexico on Saturday night.  That was an inexplicably bad performance by the Bulldogs, and off such a poor effort, we expect a big bounce back game tonight.  “He got on us on Sunday, and that’s what he does,” Julien Lewis said of Fresno State head coach Rodney Terry.  “We needed that to wake us up.”  Fresno State is 8-2 at home where they are averaging 74.1 points per game.  The Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 68.8 points per game at home on 41.2% shooting from the field and 31.9% shooting from three-point land.  Fresno State is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Wednesday night.            

10* Play FRESNO STATE (-).

Charlotte comes into this game off four consecutive losses.  However, the Hornets lost to the Warriors, Thunder, Raptors, and Clippers.  Those are four of the best teams in the league, so the losses weren’t unexpected.  Charlotte had a needed day off yesterday, and since they are taking a monumental step-down in class for this game against Phoenix, we expect a strong effort from the Hornets.  Charlotte’s offense has been terrific this season; the Hornets are averaging 101.8 points per game.  Head coach Steve Clifford likes how his offense is playing: “Offensively we still have enough to win”, Clifford said.  “The Warriors are a terrific defensive team and we still scored 101. That’s more than enough to win.”  That will be the case tonight, especially against the Suns who are mired in a wicked scoring slump.

Phoenix is an absolute mess of a team right now.  The Suns are just 4-16 over their last twenty games.  They fired two assistant coaches, Eric Bledsoe is out with injury, and Markieff Morris got suspended for actions towards head coach Jeff Hornacek.  Morris then voiced his dislike of the team owner and the organization.  The Suns are an extremely fragile team right now, and they are spiraling out of control.  Phoenix has been non-competitive in their recent losses while their defense has given up 101 points or more in eight of their last nine games.  Phoenix is averaging just 95.6 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Charlotte is the better team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Hornets in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play HORNETS (-).

Cleveland is one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but they come into this game off their best and most complete game of the season.  The Cavaliers beat the Toronto Raptors 122-100 on Monday night in a game they virtually led from start to finish.  Cleveland scored a season-high 122 points after shooting an incredible 55.4% (41-74) from the field and 51.5% (17-33) from three-point land.  Cleveland also connected on 88.5% (23-26) of their free throws.  That offensive performance came out of the blue considering the Cavaliers’ offense was mired in a recent slump.  Over their previous five games, Cleveland was shooting just 39.7% from the field and 30.4% from three-point land.

Washington comes into this game off an ugly 97-75 home loss to Miami on Sunday night.  The Wizards scored a season-low 75 points in that game after shooting just 34.1% (31-91) from the field and an embarrassing 13.8% (4-29) from three-point land.  Washington only got to the free throw line a total of 13 times in that game, and that resulted in just 9 points from the stripe.  Washington has had two full days off since that terrible performance, and that has allowed the team to get a bit healthier as Nene is expected to return tonight.  The Wizards beat the Cavaliers in Cleveland 97-85 earlier this season because of their small-ball style of play; they’ll use it once again tonight.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Washington plus the points on Wednesday night.

9* Play WIZARDS (+).

Oklahoma State is 9-4 on the season, but the Cowboys have played nothing in terms of competition.  Their wins have come against the likes of Long Beach State twice, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Tennessee-Martin, Towson, Longwood, UMKC, and TCU.  Oklahoma State is taking a monumental step-up in class against Baylor in this game, and they are doing so without their leading scorer Phil Forte who will likely miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury.  The Cowboys are the Big 12’s least experienced team, and they are trying to mix in junior college transfers.  “Junior college players are always better the second year, drastically better,” Oklahoma State head coach Travis Ford said.  “They develop a little better habits and they have so much of a better understanding.”

Baylor comes into this game off a 102-74 blowout loss at Kansas on Saturday afternoon.  The Jayhawks are the best team in the country, so the loss can be excused.  Baylor returns home while taking a huge step-down in class, so this is a terrific bounce back spot for the Bears.  Baylor is a perfect 10-0 at home where they are averaging 83.2 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land.  Baylor’s defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 60.8 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma State will be playing their first true road game of the season, and it’s simply a terrible spot for a young team.  We’ll lay the points with Baylor in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play BAYLOR (-).

Toronto comes into this game off a home loss to the Chicago Bulls on Sunday afternoon.  The Raptors got out-scored by 8 points in the fourth quarter, and they ultimately lost by 2 points.  Off that disappointing result, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight, especially since Toronto has played well in the second night of back-to-back games this season.  The Raptors are just 3-4 SU on back-to-back sets, but three of the four losses have come by 5 points or less.  Toronto plays at a slow pace, and they combine that slow tempo with the 11th best defense in terms of efficiency.  Toronto’s defense is holding opponents to just 96.9 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  Toronto also possesses a lock-down defender in DeMarre Carroll; he held LeBron James to just 37.5% (6-16) shooting in the first meeting.  

Cleveland is one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but they haven't been much better than Toronto this season.  The Cavaliers come into this game after playing four consecutive also-rans; the Trail Blazers, Suns, Nuggets, and Magic.  But Cleveland lost to Portland, and they only beat Phoenix and Denver by a combined 10 points.  The Cavaliers have been a dead even team over their last five games as they’ve allowed and given up 91.4 points per game.  Cleveland’s offense is in terrible current from as they are only shooting 39.7% from the field and 30.4% from three-point land over their last five games.  Toronto plays a similar style as Cleveland, so the Cavaliers will have a hard time winning this game by margin.  The Raptors are 10-3 ATS as underdogs this season, so we’ll take the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Minnesota comes in off a big 49-17 home win over the Giants last Sunday night.  That was the Vikings’ second consecutive blowout win after they beat the Bears 38-17 the week before.  Off back-to-back dominating performances in which they led by double-digits for the majority of those games, we expect regression tonight, especially with this game being on the road.  The Vikings’ offense is not explosive by any means, especially on the road where they are only averaging 20.6 points per game.  Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is essentially a game manager, and the Vikings offense isn’t built to trade points, especially against a potent offense.  The Vikings only scored 13 points at home in the first meeting against the Packers, so it’s hard to see Minnesota having much offensive success in this game, especially since Green Bay only allows 16.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play at home this season. 

Green Bay returns home off an embarrassing 38-8 loss in Arizona last week.  We had a Best Bet against the Packers in that game, so that result wasn’t a shocker by any means.  We are willing to simply draw a line thru that game, and off such a poor performance, the Packers are primed for a peak performance tonight.  Green Bay’s offense is averaging 24.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.  The Packers scored 30 points on the Vikings in Minnesota despite quarterback Aaron Rodgers completing just 47.1% (16-34) of his passes.  Green Bay is 5-2 at home this season with all five wins coming by 7 points or more; their average home win has come by 12.4 points per game.  We’ll back Green Bay in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play PACKERS (-).

New England still has a lot to play for as a win clinches the #1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  The Patriots come into this game off a 26-20 overtime loss last week in New York against the Jets.  New England was fortunate to even be in that game as they were absolutely dominated by the Jets from the opening kick.  Off such a poor performance and with something big on the line to play for, we expect a peak performance by New England in this game.  The Patriots already beat the Dolphins handily this season; they won 36-7 back in late-October.  New England put-up 437 yards of total offense, and that was back when Miami was playing good football.  The Patriots’ strength remains on the offensive side of the ball where they are averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only allow 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  

Miami mailed this season in right after that loss in New England.  Since that game, the Dolphins are just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS with four of the six losses coming by double digits.  Miami’s two wins during that span came against the Eagles who are a complete mess and just fired their head coach, and the Ravens who are also a mess with just a 5-10 record.  Miami has played a slew of also-rans in their recent games, and they’ve been noncompetitive.  The Dolphins are now taking a monumental step-up in class against the Patriots in this game; a team that is 12-3 on the season with a +160 point differential.  To compare, Miami has a -89 point differential on the season, and New England’s defense has allowed just 5 points more (295-290) than Miami’s offense has scored this season.  The Patriots are the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with New England in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Baltimore played their big game last week at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Ravens won 20-17 as 11-point underdogs.  That win was preceded by back-to-back blowout losses in which they lost by a combined score of 69-20.  Baltimore was in a good spot last week as they were playing their third straight home game while catching Pittsburgh off three consecutive big wins.  Off that big win, we expect major regression from the Ravens in this game, especially since they have to play on the road against an opponent that will be primed for a big effort.  Baltimore’s offense is terrible as they are only averaging 20.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Ravens will face a Cincinnati defense that is allowing just 17.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.

Cincinnati returns home off back-to-back road games with the last being an overtime loss in Denver.  The Bengals have played three of their last four games on the road, and their last home game was an embarrassing 33-20 loss to the Steelers.  Cincinnati has a lot to play for as a win and a Denver loss can secure the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs for the Bengals.  The good thing is that the Broncos play a late afternoon game, so Cincinnati will go all out for a win to give themselves a chance.  Quarterback A.J. McCarron has played well while replacing starter Andy Dalton.  In two starts, McCarron has completed 66.1% (37-56) of his passes for 395 yards.  The Bengals will run all over a Baltimore defense that has given up 442 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per rush over the last month.  Cincinnati is the superior team in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BENGALS (-).

Pittsburgh comes into this game off a terrible 20-17 loss in Baltimore as 11-point favorites last week.  Off that poor effort, and with a lot to play for, we expect a big bounce back game from the Steelers.  Pittsburgh can only make the playoffs with a win and a Jets loss, so they will go all out here.  The Steelers dominated the Browns earlier this season; they won 30-9 in mid-November.  We expect a repeat of that game, especially since Pittsburgh will be primed for a big performance off a terrible showing last week.  Overall this season, the Steelers are averaging 26.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 21.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Cleveland’s defense is terrible; they are giving up 26.9 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 22.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

Cleveland is having another dysfunctional season; the Browns come into this game with an ugly 3-12 record.  Rumors are swirling that their head coach and general manager will be fired after this game.  Cleveland once again has no stability at the quarterback position, and with Johnny Manziel out with a concussion, Austin Davis will start their final game of the season.  Cleveland’s offense is only averaging 17.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Browns have scored 13 points or less in three of their last four games, and with the Steelers only giving up 20.5 points per game this season, it’s hard to see Cleveland’s offense scoring many points in this game.  Pittsburgh is simply the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Steelers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play STEELERS (-).

Philadelphia has been a different team since acquiring point guard Ish Smith in a trade with New Orleans.  The 76ers are 2-2 SU over their last four games, and since Smith has joined the team, Philadelphia’s two losses have come by just 4 and 9 points.  Philadelphia’s chairman of basketball operations Jerry Colangelo had this to say recently: “There’s a different feeling about the team right now.  They really believe they have a chance to win every game they’re going out to play now.  It’s amazing what one addition can make.  In this particular case, Ish has been a great, great addition in terms of raising the bar for all the players.”  Philadelphia played on the same court last night against the Lakers, so they’ve had no travel associated with this game which makes the back-to-back set much easier.

Los Angeles returns home on a 5-game winning streak.  It was the first time in franchise history that the Clippers swept a 5-game road trip.  They completed a trip while playing in four different time zones in six days.  Los Angeles has also been without Blake Griffin as well, so their recent production has come as a surprise.  The Clippers are in a bad scheduling and situational spot tonight after a record breaking trip and just one day off since returning home.  The opponent doesn’t help either, and the fact the Clippers will have three full days off after this game makes it likely they’ll just go thru the motions in this game.  We’ll take the big points with Philadelphia in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play 76ERS (+).

New Mexico comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Lobos are just 1-4 over their last five games, and a major reason for that has been the play of their defense.  New Mexico has been unable to stop their opponents from scoring recently.  Over their last five games, the Lobos have given up 85.4 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 43.3% shooting from three-point land.  New Mexico has allowed 70 points or more in nine of their fourteen games this season, and those games have come against an extremely weak slate of opponents.  New Mexico is just 1-5 away from home this season with four of those five losses coming by 5 points or more; their average loss has come by 15.6 points per game.     

Fresno State is finally putting their talent to good use on the court.  The Bulldogs have been an underachieving team over the last couple of seasons, but they are clicking this season.  Fresno State comes into this game with a solid 10-4 record; three of their losses have come on the road.  Fresno State has also played a tough road schedule with games at UNLV, at Arizona, and at Oregon.  They won against UNLV in their last game, and lost the other two games by just 5 and 13 points.  Fresno State is 8-1 at home where they are averaging 75.9 points per game.  The Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 39.8% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Fresno State in this game on Saturday night.            

9* Play FRESNO STATE (-).

Northern Iowa comes in off a 36-point blowout win at home over Bradley.  That was the Panthers’ largest margin of victory in a conference game; the win eclipsed their 34-point win over Bradley back in 2014.  Northern Iowa played their best game of the season as they shot 58.7% (27-46) from the field and 40% (8-20) from three-point land.  It was a total team effort as five players scored 11 points or more.  That win was preceded by an away loss to BYU on a neutral court.  Now the Panthers must hit the road again off a perfect home performance, and they are laying points in a spot that sets them up to regress.  Northern Iowa will be playing their eight road game in their last eleven games, and this will also be their fifth game over a 12-day span.

Southern Illinois has played much better basketball this season; the Salukis come into this game with a solid 12-2 record.  Their two losses this season have come by a combined 7 points.  Southern Illinois returns home off three consecutive road wins, and they are getting no respect as home underdogs in this game.  Southern Illinois won 72-62 at Loyola-Chicago last Wednesday night, and opposing coach Porter Moser had high praise for the Salukis: “They’re a very confident, hard-playing team right now. The physicality they played with. The offensive rebounds, keeping it alive, the blocked shots.”  Southern Illinois’ offense is averaging 78.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field at home this season, and they combine that with a defense that is holding opponents to just 42.3% shooting from the field.  We’ll back Southern Illinois in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (+).

Notre Dame played tremendous football this season, and they didn’t skip a beat with their backup quarterback (DeShone Kizer) after losing starter Malik Zaire for the season in Week 2.  Notre Dame’s offense averaged 34.7 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Those impressive offensive numbers came against a strong slate of defenses that allowed 24.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Notre Dame has an exceptional rushing attack that averaged 215.6 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush.  That strong running game has opened up big plays downfield for Notre Dame, and it has allowed quarterback Kizer to throw for an incredible 8.7 yards per pass attempt this season.  The Fighting Irish have incredible offensive balance as they also pass for 256.3 yards per game; teams with such a profile are exceptional plays as underdogs, especially in bowl games.

Ohio State went 11-1 this season, but the Buckeyes weren’t as dominant as some of their previous teams; the Buckeyes went just 5-7 ATS on the year.  Ohio State actually played a worse slate of defenses than Notre Dame as their opponents allowed 27.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Fighting Irish also played a tougher slate of opposing offenses this season; Notre Dame gave up just 22.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus opponents that averaged 28.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Ohio State played an extremely weak schedule this season, and in fact, it was ranked 58th by efficiency metrics.  To compare, Notre Dame played the 16th rated schedule, and they simply played better football on both sides of the ball against the tougher competition.  This is also a meaningless game for Ohio State after winning the national championship last season, so we’ll take Notre Dame plus the points in this game on Friday afternoon.  

10* Play NOTRE DAME (+).

Los Angeles comes into this game on a 4-game winning streak, and three of those four games have come on the road.  The Clippers were technically the road team against the Lakers, but that’s essentially a home game.  Los Angeles’ road trip has been quirky as they started in Utah last Saturday night, played in Washington on Monday night, and then they played in Charlotte last night.  Now they’ll complete the trip in New Orleans tonight while playing in their fourth different time zone in six days; this will also be the Clippers third game in four nights.  Los Angeles has been without Blake Griffin as well, so their recent production is a bit of a surprise.  The Clippers are in a bad scheduling and situational spot tonight after scoring a season-high 122 points last night.  Los Angeles had six players score 11 points or more while shooting 52.1% (37-71) from the field and 50% (15-30) from three-point land.  The Clippers also hit 80.5% (33-41) from the free throw line.  Off such a perfect performance, we expect regression tonight.     

New Orleans has played much better basketball at home than on the road this season.  The Pelicans are 7-6 at home and just 3-15 on the road.  New Orleans returns home off a blowout loss in Orlando, and with two days to prepare for this game, we expect a peak performance by the Pelicans.  New Orleans is finally healthy after playing the early season with a limited team.  The Pelicans are essentially playing .500 basketball (9-10) after beginning the season at 1-11.  New Orleans is averaging 108.9 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Clippers give up 103.1 points per game on the road, so the Pelicans will have offensive success.  We’ll lay the points with New Orleans in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play PELICANS (-).

Clemson had a surprising season by going undefeated at 13-0.  The Tigers were projected to be a year or two away from having a really good team after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 10-3 team that beat Oklahoma 40-6 in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  Clemson was hardly challenged this season, but their two closest games came against the two best defense they faced; they beat Louisville 20-17 and they beat Notre Dame 24-22.  The Tigers will now face a strong Oklahoma defense that allowed just 20.7 points per game on 4.7 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 33.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Clemson’s offense hasn’t faced a complete defense like Oklahoma’s all season that combines talent, speed, and physicality at just about every position.  Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson had a fantastic season, but he will be throwing the ball on an Oklahoma secondary that is rated #1 in pass efficiency defense; they allowed just 52.6% completions with 19 interceptions on the season.  Clemson handed down some suspensions this week, including wide receiver Deon Cain who was the Tigers’ biggest deep threat.  

Oklahoma went 11-1 this season with their lone loss coming against rival Texas as 16-point favorites.  Ten of their eleven wins this season have come by 7 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 27.9 points per game.  Oklahoma’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 235 yards per game on the ground and 308 yards per game thru the air.  Oklahoma ran for 232 yards or more in eight games this season, and they averaged an incredible 52 points per game in those games.  Clemson’s defense allowed 130 rushing yards or more seven times this season, and the Tigers gave up 25.3 points per game in those games.  Clemson’s defense gave up just 20.2 points per game, so their defense is vulnerable against good rushing attacks.  Overall, Oklahoma averaged 45.7 points per game on 7.0 yards per play which is by far the best offense Clemson will face this season.  Oklahoma is simply the better team on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Sooners in this game on Thursday afternoon.

10* Play OKLAHOMA (-).

Michigan State comes into this game as the #1 team in the country with a perfect 13-0 record.  However, the Spartans have played just three solid teams this season; they beat Kansas by 6 points, Louisville by 4 points, and Florida by 6 points.  Michigan State played all three of those games with their best player, Denzel Valentine, and two of those games were at home with another game on a a neutral court.  Valentine is out until mid-January with a knee injury, and the Spartans will play their first true road conference game while missing their most important player.  Valentine was playing 30.6 minutes per game while averaging 19 points per game, collecting eight rebounds per game, and dishing out seven assists per game.  Valentine dominated the ball on offense while accounting for 29.2% of Michigan State’s possessions and taking 30.1% of the shots while grabbing 24.5% of the defensive rebounds.  That’s a lot of production by one player, and his absence tonight will be too much to overcome for the Spartans.

Iowa comes into this game with a 9-3 record, including a perfect 6-0 mark at home.  Their three losses have come by a combined 12 points to good teams like Dayton, Notre Dame, and Iowa State who are a combined 27-6 on the season.  The Hawkeyes are flying well under the radar this season, but they are an experienced team that has a lot of talent.  Iowa starts four seniors, including Jarrod Uthoff who will be a top NBA draft pick.  Iowa is a well-balanced team as they’ve had nine different players reach double figures at least once this season, and five different players have led the team in scoring at least once in 12 games.  “We’re in a good place,” said head coach Fran McCaffery.  “We’re taking care of the ball, our shot selection is good, and our ball movement is good. We have a lot of different guys producing, so ultimately, I feel pretty good.”  Iowa is catching Michigan State at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Hawkeyes in this game on Tuesday night. 

9* Play IOWA (-).

Cleveland comes into this game off back-to-back losses.  The Cavaliers lost at Golden State on Christmas Day, and they lost the following night in Portland by 29 points (105-79).  That blowout loss is easily excusable after the spotlight close loss to the Warriors.  Cleveland now comes into tonight’s game in Phoenix off a day of rest, and we fully expect a peak performance in this game.  “I think the day off yesterday, everybody getting off their feet, kind of refocus and regather themselves I think can help us tonight,” LeBron James said.  Cleveland finally has all of their key pieces back on the court, and off an embarrassing loss to the Trail Blazers, the Cavaliers are primed to blowout a team that is sinking to the bottom pretty quickly.

Phoenix is an absolute mess of a team right now.  The Suns are just 4-11 over their last fifteen games, and they just fired two assistant coaches over the weekend.  Phoenix also lost their best player, Eric Bledsoe, to a torn meniscus for at least six weeks.  Markieff Morris is suspended for throwing a towel at head coach Jeff Hornacek.  The Suns are an extremely fragile team right now, and they are spiraling out of control.  Phoenix has been non-competitive in their recent losses as well with six losses coming by 10 points or more.  The Suns have been held to 96 points or less in three of their last four games.  Cleveland is allowing just 95.3 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field and 33.2% shooting from three-point land.  Phoenix will have a difficult time scoring in this game, especially since the Cavaliers are in a focused spot.  We’ll lay the points with Cleveland in this game on Monday night.

9* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Green Bay comes into this game on a 3-game winning streak, and the Packers have won four of their last five games.  Prior to that, Green Bay had lost three consecutive games after opening the season at 6-0.  So it’s apparent that the Packers are a streaky team, and that has coincided with the strength of their schedule.  Two of their last three losses have come on the road to playoff-bound teams Carolina and Denver; the Packers lost those two games by a combined score 66-39.  Their recent three wins have come against also-rans like the Lions, Cowboys, and Raiders.  Green Bay will now face one of the best teams in the league, and the Packers do not match-up well against the Cardinals.  The Packers will have difficulty running the ball in this game, and that means Green Bay will be a one-dimensional passing attack.  Obviously that’s not a bad thing with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, but he’ll be throwing on an Arizona secondary that ranks 7th in efficiency and 5th in passer rating allowed.        

Arizona is 12-2 on the season as they’ve combined an explosive offense with a shutdown defense.  The Cardinals have played three of their last four games on the road, so a home game against an elite opponent will have Arizona ready for a peak performance.  The Cardinals are averaging 30.5 points per game on 6.8 yards per play at home this season.  That offense will face a Green Bay defense that allowed 66 points on the road to the Broncos and Panthers.  The Cardinals’ defense has been terrific at home where they are only allowing 19.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Arizona is simply the better team, and they are looking for a big statement win against an elite team, and this game provides them an opportunity for exactly that.  We’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

Cleveland is having another dysfunctional season; the Browns come into this game with an ugly 3-11 record, including a 1-6 mark on the road.  Cleveland once again has no stability at the quarterback position while flip-flopping between Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel.  The latter will finish out the season with McCown out with injury.  Cleveland’s recent road games have been embarrassing; the Browns are winless in their last four away games.  Cleveland’s offense has scored 13 points or less in every one of those games while losing by a combined score of 115-38.  The Browns led 7-0 in Seattle last week after scoring on their opening drive; they proceeded to get out-scored 30-6 the rest of the game.  Overall, Cleveland’s offense is only averaging 18.1 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Browns’ defense has been atrocious on the road where they are giving up 29.4 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.       

Kansas City is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.  The Chiefs have won six of those games by 10 points or more with their average win coming by an incredible 17.5 points per game.  Kansas City has an excellent rushing offense, and they get a terrific match-up here against Cleveland’s defense.  The Chiefs are averaging 141.4 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush at home this season.  That strong rushing attack will face a horrendous Browns rush defense that ranks 28th in efficiency while giving up 139.7 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush on the road this season.  Kansas City’s defense has also been terrific at home where they are holding opponents to just 17.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Kansas City is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Chiefs in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

New England is 12-2 SU and 7-5 ATS this season.  The Patriots have exceptional offensive numbers this season, but unfortunately for them, key offensive components are out because of injury.  Julien Edelman and Danny Amendola will miss this game in New York.  The Patriots’ defense will also be missing two important pieces in their secondary with Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung out for this game.  New England struggled at home against the Jets in the first meeting; they trailed 20-16 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-23.  The Patriots gave up 25 first downs to New York, and they were out-yarded 372-353 in that game.  In the first meeting, Edelman and Amendola caught 13 passes on 18 targets for 140 yards and a touchdown.  The Patriots’ passing offense will be all Rob Gronkowski now, so the Jets’ defense gets an easier matchup this time around.

New York is finally healthy again, and we’ve seen a much better team on the field in recent weeks.  The Jets come into this game on a 4-game winning streak, so they have plenty of momentum and confidence right now.  The Jets will have a big edge on the ground in this game, especially since the Patriots are giving up 121 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush on the road this season.  The Jets average 128.4 yards on the ground per game on 4.2 yards per rush at home, so the match-up is perfect for New York.  In the first meeting, the Jets out-rushed the Patriots 89-16, and that was on the road.  New York’s defense is in excellent current form as they’ve given up a total of 64 points in their last four games.  Overall, the Jets are only giving up 18.1 points per game on 5.0 yards per play at home this season.  We’ll take the points with New York in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play JETS (+).

Southern Mississippi has a strong 9-4 record this season, but the Golden Eagles played an extremely easy schedule.  In fact, Southern Mississippi played the 125th schedule this season compared to Washington who played the 35th toughest schedule in the country this season.  Southern Mississippi is playing in their first bowl game in four years, and their first bowl game under head coach Todd Monken.  Southern Mississippi had solid offensive numbers this season; they averaged 40.6 points per game on 7.0 yards per play.  However, the Golden Eagles played one of the softest slates of defensive opponents in the country; their opponents gave up 32.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Golden Eagles are taking a major step-up in defensive class against Washington in this game, and we expect Southern Mississippi’s offense to get stymied in this game.          

Washington went just 6-6 in the regular season, but as mentioned above, the Huskies played a brutal schedule.  In fact, Washington faced a whopping 10 bowl teams in their twelve games this season.  Three of those opponents have already played their bowl games; they went 2-1 with the offenses scoring a combined 121 points.  Washington’s defense was excellent this season as the Huskies held four opponents to their season-low and second season-low in yards.  Overall, Washington gave up just 17.7 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 31.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Head coach Chris Petersen had a history of success in bowl games while at Boise State, but last year Washington lost their bowl game in Petersen’s first season.  This is an important game for Petersen and the Washington program, so we expect a motivated effort.  We’ll lay the points with the Huskies in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

10* Play WASHINGTON (-).

Cleveland and Golden State will play for the first time since last year’s Finals which the Warriors won in six games.  That series was basically a team versus one (LeBron James) as the Cavaliers were without Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and Timofey Mozgov because of injury.  Inman Shumpert also played with a groin injury, and his defense was clearly down a notch because of it.  Cleveland will have all of their key pieces on the court for this game, and it’s clearly a game they’ve had circled.  “It’s an exciting game,” head coach Dave Blatt said.  “I know everybody is looking forward to it. The significance of the game. There isn’t anybody on our team that doesn’t remember the Finals. I know we’re going down there finally with a full roster.”  Cleveland comes into this game in excellent current form; the Cavs are on a 6-game winning streak, and they are 11-4 over their last 15 games.

Golden State is the best team in the NBA as they bring their incredible 27-1 record into this game.  The Warriors have been steamrolling their opponents while scoring 100 points or more in 27 of 28 games this season.  However, this game against the Cavs presents a challenging assignment for Golden State.  After losing their first game of the season, the Warriors have played three teams that have been struggling mightily.  Golden State had little resistance in those games, and now they’ll be forced to play their A-game against one of the elite teams in the NBA.  LeBron gave Golden State all they wanted all by himself in the Finals, but now he has help all over the court.  We’ll take Cleveland plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play CAVALIERS (+).

San Diego comes into this game off an easy 30-14 home win over Miami last Sunday.  Wins have been few and far between for the Chargers this season, but the team has been competitive as seven of their ten losses have come by single digits.  San Diego lost to Oakland by 8 points (37-29) back in Week 7; the Chargers were 3.5-point home favorites in that game.  Now in the rematch, San Diego is getting 6 points which creates value considering the Chargers have been favored over the Raiders the last six times they’ve played.  Quarterback Philip Rivers is having a pretty good season considering the offense hasn’t been fully healthy.  Overall, Rivers has thrown for 4,287 yards while averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt with a 26/12 touchdown/interception ratio.           

Oakland lost 30-20 at home to Green Bay in their last game.  The Raiders have been in poor current form in the second half of the season.  Oakland is just 2-5 SU over their last seven games with those two wins coming by a combined 6 points.  The Raiders were fortunate to beat Denver eleven days ago; Oakland only had 8 first downs on 126 yards of total offense in that game.  The Raiders’ offense has put-up some big numbers in games this season, but overall, Oakland is only averaging 22.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Raiders’ defense has been poor all season; they are giving up 28 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home.  These two teams are equal across the board, so we’ll take San Diego plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

Denver is in rebuilding mode this season after letting some of their core veterans go over the summer.  The Nuggets weren’t projected to be much, but they’ve overachieved so far this season.  Denver comes into this game with an 11-17 record which is surprising considering their season wins total was only lined at 26.5 prior to the start of the year.  The Nuggets hosted the Lakers last night and they inexplicably blew a 21-point lead to the worst team in the NBA.  Denver has now lost three straight games while allowing a total of 338 points in those games.  The Nuggets are now playing the following night on the road off a home game, and they are just 1-3 SU in this situation with the three losses coming by 15, 24, and 11 points.  That 24-point loss came on Phoenix back in November.  Denver is also playing their third game in four nights, and they have a shorthanded team with Emmanuel Mudiay, Danilo Gallinari, Jusuf Nurkic out while Jameer Nelson and Gary Harris are battling injuries.             

Phoenix returns home off an ugly 110-89 road loss at Utah on Monday night.  The Suns have been strong when playing at home off a road loss this season; they are 3-1 SU with the three wins coming by 21, 14, and 16 points.  Overall this season, the Suns’ offense is averaging 106.3 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Phoenix will face a poor Denver defense that has given up 109.2 points per game on 48.9% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Phoenix already owns two wins over Denver by a combined 31 points this season.  We’ll lay the points with the Suns in this game on Wednesday night. 

9* Play SUNS (-).

Dallas played last night in Toronto and they lost 103-99.  However, that game was nowhere as close as the final score indicates.  Dallas never led in the game, and they trailed by 18 points at one time.  The Mavericks were lethargic throughout the game, and they simply played with little energy.  Head coach Rick Carlisle benched his starters in the second half and let the second unit play the majority of the game.  Carlisle ripped into his team after the game: “That first half was embarrassing,” Carlisle said.  “Look, if it’s going to be like that, these guys aren’t going to be Mavericks very long. I can promise you that.”  Dallas went into that game with 3 full days of rest, so they will be ready to bring their best effort tonight despite this being a back-to-back road set.

Brooklyn is one of the worst teams in the NBA.  The Nets come into this game with an 8-20 record, and they are just 1-5 over their last six games.  Brooklyn won 105-102 in Chicago as 10.5-point underdogs on Monday night.  The Nets won that game despite shooting just 45.7% (43-94) from the field, 35% (7-20) from three point land, and making just 12 free throws.  So that win wasn’t a direct result of a good game by Brooklyn, but instead a result of a terrible game played by the Bulls.  Brooklyn’s defense is in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 100 points or more in six straight games, and in nine of their last ten games overall.  Dallas is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Mavericks on Wednesday night.      

9* Play MAVERICKS (-).

Kansas has been one of the best teams in the country this season, both in efficiency metrics and with the eye test.  The Jayhawks have one the best offenses and defenses in the country; they score 1.16 points per 100 possessions and they only allow 0.90 points per 100 possessions.  Kansas also has an effective 60.0% field goal percentage which ranks them #4 in the nation.  The Jayhawks’ offense is simply terrific, and they combine that with a stout defense which allows them to win games by margin.  In fact, Kansas has won all nine of their games by 6 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping +25.9 points per game this season.  Kansas has had this game circled since losing at home versus San Diego State two seasons ago as a 10.5-point favorite.  That loss broke the Jayhawks' 68-game home winning streak against against non-conference opponents.

San Diego State is a shell of the team that beat Kansas two years ago.  The Aztecs played that game with two fifth-year seniors and a fourth-year junior in the starting five.  They brought two more fourth-year juniors off the bench.  Kansas was playing with four freshman and two sophomores in their top seven.  The roles are reversed for this game.  San Diego State now starts two freshmen and a sophomore, and they bring another freshman off the bench.  Kansas starts two seniors and two juniors while their bench is loaded with top recruits.  San Diego State returns one player from last year’s team, and after an ugly 52-45 home loss to Grand Canyon on Friday night, Winston Shepard simply said, “We’re still figuring it out and at some point our talent is going to surpass our challenges and our cohesion.”  The Aztecs also own losses against Arkansas-Little Rock and San Diego this season.  Kansas is simply the superior team in a focused revenge spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Jayhawks in this game on Tuesday night. 

9* Play KANSAS (-).

Toledo and Temple are evenly matched, so this game should be close throughout and come right down to the wire.  My power ratings make this game a Pick, so there is a bit of value on the underdog; there would be a lot of value on Toledo if the line were to hit +3.  The teams played similar schedules, Toledo #84 and Temple #74, and their overall efficiency statistics are just about even across the board.  The Rockets went 9-2 SU and a solid 8-2-1 ATS this season.  Their successful season prompted Iowa State to hire head coach Matt Campbell away.  But Toledo promoted offensive coordinator Jason Candle to replace Campbell, and his hire has been well accepted by the players, especially since he declined an offer to join Campbell at Iowa State.  “A lot of people like coach Candle as the head coach,” running back Terry Swanson said.  “He’s a great guy. I feel like there’s a lot of excitement and hype to him. We just like playing for him.”  Toledo’s offense averaged 35.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play this season, and with Candle still calling the plays, the Rockets’ offense shouldn't skip a beat.  

Temple went 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS on the season.  All three of their losses did come against teams playing in bowl games, but only three of their wins came against bowl teams.  Temple’s offense benefitted from short fields a lot this season.  Despite averaging 30.8 points per game, the Owls only averaged 5.4 yards per play despite facing defenses that allowed 5.7 yards per play.  Temple’s offense declined against tougher competition as well as they averaged 6 points per game less and 0.3 yards per play less against the seven bowl teams they faced.  The Owls have good overall defensive numbers, but they were vulnerable to good rushing attacks.  Toledo averages 211 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per rush.  Temple went 0-3 SU against bowl teams when allowing 150 rushing yards or more this season.  And those games weren’t even close as Temple lost by a combined score of 92-56.  We’ll take the points with Toledo in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play TOLEDO (+).

Portland came into this season as a shell of the team that won 51 games last season.  Their season wins total was virtually cut in half for 2015.  With four of their five starters from last season gone, the Trail Blazers were starting from scratch.  Damian Lillard was the lone leftover from last year’s starting five.  The Trail Blazers have mostly been a two-man team this season with Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  They are averaging over 71 minutes per game and 44.7 points per game between them.  Both will miss tonight’s game in Atlanta after getting injured yesterday in Miami.  The Trail Blazers will not resemble a NBA team tonight, especially since they’ll be playing without a true point guard and only have eight available players.  Portland is playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their fourth consecutive road game in six days. 

Atlanta returns home off back-to-back road wins, and they’ve won three consecutive games after a 3-game losing streak preceded.  The Hawks’ offense comes into this game in terrific current form; Atlanta has scored 339 points in their last three games.  Atlanta shot 52.5% (128-244) from the field in those games, and their scoring ways will continue against a Portland defense that has given up 107.4 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field and 33.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This line has not been adjusted nearly enough for the absence of Lillard and McCollum, so we’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Monday night.

9* Play HAWKS (-).

Minnesota is playing excellent basketball right now.  The Timberwolves have won their last two games after going 1-8 over their previous nine games.  Despite losing on the scoreboard, Minnesota was quite competitive in seven of those eight losses.  The Timberwolves lost those seven games by 8 points or less, and that’s meaningful since the pointspread on tonight’s game is posted at +8.  Overall, Minnesota is an incredible 15-2-2 ATS based on tonight’s line in their last nineteen games.  Minnesota has also played better on the road where they are 7-6 compared to 4-10 at home this season.  The Timberwolves own a +3.4 point differential away from while going 9-3 ATS as a road underdog.

Boston comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Celtics have lost three consecutive games, and four of their last five games overall.  Boston’s defense has been awful as they’ve allowed 106.8 points per game over their last five games.  The Celtics have given up 228 points on 47.6% (79-166) shooting from the field and 36.6% (15-41) shooting from three-point land in their last two games.  Boston has sent their opponents to the free throw line a whopping 72 times in their last two games; that’s a direct correlation to poor defensive form.  Boston has won just one of their last seven games by more than 5 points, so they’ve haven’t been winning by margin either.  We’ll take the points with Minnesota in this game on Monday night.      

9* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Cincinnati comes into this game off a 33-20 home loss to Pittsburgh last week.  We played against the Bengals in that game, so that loss is easy to excuse.  Cincinnati was in a terrible situational spot, and after losing quarterback Andy Dalton to a broken thumb in the first quarter, the game just snowballed out of control.  Off that defeat, the Bengals are in a nice bounce back spot against one of the worst teams in the NFL.  Quarterback A.J. McCarron played well despite being thrown into the fire.  McCarron had to throw the ball a lot (32 pass attempts) because Cincinnati trailed for every minute of the game.  He was decent while completing 22 passes for 280 yards and two touchdowns.  This game will play out differently as the Bengals will lean heavily on their running game which will take the pressure off McCarron.  Cincinnati will run all over a San Francisco defense that ranks 30th in rush defense efficiency; the 49ers gave up 223 rushing yards on 6.8 yards per rush to the Browns last week.

San Francisco returns home off back-to-back road games in which they went 1-1.  The 49ers are just 4-9 on the season with their lone win against a winning team coming way back in Week 1 against the Vikings.  San Francisco’s offense is terrible as they are only averaging 14.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 21.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The 49ers will face a Cincinnati defense that is allowing just 17.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season.  In five games with quarterback Blaine Gabbert, San Francisco has scored 20 points or less in every game while only averaging 14.6 points per game.  Cincinnati is the superior team in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BENGALS (-).

Denver never should have lost at home to the Raiders last week.  The Broncos held Oakland to just 8 first downs and 126 yards of total offense; Denver lead 12-0 at the half as well.  The Broncos held a 36-24 time of possession edge, but two lost fumbles and an 0-3 in the red zone did them in.  We are willing to forgive that result as Denver was in a natural letdown spot in that game.  Now on the road in Pittsburgh, the Broncos are severely undervalued despite being in a prime bounce back spot.  The pointspread on this game makes little sense; my power ratings only make the Steelers a 4-point favorite.  Denver’s defense matches-up extremely well with the Pittsburgh offense.  The Broncos have the #3 rush defense in efficiency, so the Steelers will not be able to run the ball with consistency in this game.  That will make them one-dimensional to the pass against a Denver secondary that ranks #1 in pass defense efficiency.  Overall, Denver’s defense is only allowing 17.3 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  

Pittsburgh was in an excellent spot last week in Cincinnati, and we won a Best Bet selection on the Steelers in their easy 33-20 win.  However, we are going against Pittsburgh this week as they are now in a terrible situational spot.  The Steelers are set to regress after back-to-back monster games in which they led by double digits for the majority of the games.  Pittsburgh is also taking a major step-up in defensive class against Denver after QB Ben Roethlisberger had the luxury of playing poor defenses like the 49ers, Colts, Raiders, and Browns.  Pittsburgh’s defense is vulnerable as they are giving up 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.8 yards per play this season.  Denver’s offense has actually played better on the road where they are averaging 22.1 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Denver is in a terrific bounce back spot, and they are catching Pittsburgh at the perfect time.  We’ll take the points with the Broncos in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play BRONCOS (+).

Tennessee is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Volunteers are in their first year under former Texas head coach Rick Barnes.  He has very little to work with as Tennessee lost their best player last season to the NBA; Josh Richardson averaged 16 points per game.  The Volunteers come into this game with a 5-4 record, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule thus far.  Their five wins have come against N.C. Asheville, Marshall, Gardner-Webb, Army, and Florida Atlantic.  All five of those teams are terrible.  Tennessee has lost to every good team they have played like George Washington, Nebraska, and Butler.  Now they are taking a major step-up in class against Gonzaga, and we fully expect the Volunteers to lose by a double digit margin.

Gonzaga has already lost a pair of home games, but those losses came to Arizona and UCLA.  This game will be played in Seattle, but it’s always a game the Zags take very seriously.  Gonzaga comes in off a perfect prep as they waxed St. Martin’s by 36 points (86-50) after shooting 51.6% (33-64) from the field and 45% (9-20) from three-point land.  They’ll carry momentum into this game, especially on offense since Tennessee plays little defense while playing at a quick pace.  This is a perfect matchup for Gonzaga, and they will dominate the paint with their significant height advantage.  Gonzaga is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Zags on Saturday night.

9* Play GONZAGA (-).

New York comes into this game on a 3-game winning streak, and we expect them to extend that to four consecutive wins.  The Jets will own a major edge at the line of scrimmage, and that will be the deciding factor in this game.  New York running back Chris Ivory is in excellent form, averaging 4.7 yards per rush in his last five games.  Ivory will face a Dallas defense that gave up 195 rushing yards on 5.6 yards per rush last week in Green Bay.  Overall, the Cowboys are giving up 130 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush at home this season.  Dallas ranks 26th in rush defense efficiency, so New York will lean heavily on Ivory in this game.            

Dallas returns home off a 28-7 loss in Green Bay last week.  The Cowboys are now playing on a short week for the second straight time; they played the Packers off a Monday night game.  This is a poor situational and scheduling spot for Dallas, and the bad matchup just makes things more difficult.  Offense will be hard to come by for Dallas as they are only averaging 17.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.  The Cowboys have scored just 40 total points in their last three games.  New York’s defense is only allowing 19.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New York is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Jets in this game on Saturday night.           

9* Play JETS (-).

South Carolina is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Gamecocks have been able to play at their preferred pace in all nine of their games this season; they’ve scored 76 points or more in every game.  South Carolina will play their first true road game tonight, and they are not going to get to play their style of basketball.  This is simply a bad match-up for the Gamecocks.  Clemson routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions; South Carolina has yet to play in such a game this season.  The slow pace and strong half-court defense of Clemson will be the deciding factors in this game. 

Clemson is 7-3 on the season, and a big part of that success has been the Tigers slow and defensive ways.  Clemson plays at an extremely slow pace while suffocating their opponents with defense in the half court.  The Tigers are allowing just 56.9 points per game on 37.9% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land this season.  Clemson has held all seven of their home opponents to 56 points or less this season.  We expect Clemson to slow this game to a crawl, so we’ll take the points with the Tigers on Friday night. 

9* Play CLEMSON (+).

Mississippi State is in rebuilding mode under new head coach Ben Howland.  The Bulldogs come into this game with a 4-4 SU record on the season, but those wins have come against an extremely soft schedule.  Mississippi State has only played one true road game this season, and that resulted in a 72-67 loss to UMKC in their last game.  Now they are playing on the road once again while stepping way up in class and playing shorthanded.  The Bulldogs will be without Travis Daniels (concussion) who averages 29 minutes and 9.1 points per game.  They may also be without I.J. Ready (turf toe) who averages 31 minutes and 12.4 points per game.  Mississippi State likes to play an up-tempo style of basketball, but so does Florida State and they do it better which makes this game a likely blowout.

Florida State has alternated good and bad years over the past four seasons.  Last year they only won 17 games, but the Seminoles come into this game with a 6-2 SU record, including a perfect 3-0 at home.  Florida State looks to be headed for a 20+ win season, especially since they’ve tightened up their defense.  The Seminoles are only giving up 66.3 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field and 34.8% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Florida State’s offense has been excellent; the Seminoles are averaging 85.4 points per game on 48.9% shooting from the field.  They will now face a terrible Mississippi State defense that is giving up 76.1 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field.  Florida State is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Seminoles in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Denver and Minnesota just played last Friday night with the Nuggets winning 111-108 at home in overtime.  The Timberwolves actually led that game by 18-points in the second half before melting down and losing in overtime.  Denver was in an excellent scheduling spot for that game as they had two full days of rest prior, and they were off an embarrassing loss in their previous home game.  Still, they were down 18 points despite Minnesota playing in overtime in their previous game.  The Nuggets played last night and they beat Houston 114-108.  However, four guys played 32 minutes or more with two guys playing 37 minutes or more.  Denver has now scored 225 points in their last two games while only shooting 47.6% (80-168) from the field and 35.8% (19-53) from three-point land.  Denver lived at the free throw line in those two home games (46-58), but now on the road they cannot expect to get a favorable whistle.

Minnesota returns home off back-to-back road losses, including the overtime defeat in Denver.  The players are looking to make amends for that 18-point blown lead loss, and tonight’s quick turnaround scheduling spot provides them with that opportunity.  “We know what we did wrong,” Andrew Wiggins said.  “We know how the players want to play, their style of play. So we’re well aware. We’re prepared for the game. We plan on winning this game, so it will feel good after the win.”  Minnesota’s offense comes into this game in terrific current form; the Timberwolves have averaged 108.2 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with Minnesota in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

New England comes into this game off back-to-back losses after opening the season with ten consecutive wins.  The Patriots should have won in Denver two weeks ago, but they blew a 21-7 fourth quarter lead and fell in overtime.  Last week, New England played a sloppy game after going up 14-0; they gave up three defensive and special teams touchdowns combined.  Off such a poor performance, the Patriots are primed for a peak performance tonight.  It’s true New England comes into this game at less than 100% with multiple offensive injuries, but head coach Bill Belichick is the master at devising a game plan to attack the opponents’ weakness.  The Patriots are the best scheming team in the NFL, and Belichick also knows Houston head coach Bill O’Brien and quarterback Brian Hoyer extremely well as both were with the Patriots for multiple seasons. 

Houston’s 4-game winning streak was snapped last week in Buffalo.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Bills in that game, and we’ll fade the Texans once again in this game.  Houston beat Tennessee with Zach Mettenberger at quarterback, they beat a New York Jets team that was on a 1-3 slide, and they beat New Orleans who is just 1-5 on the road this season.  Houston also won at Cincinnati, but that was a phony win as they only had 256 yards of total offense while scoring just 3 total points thru the first three quarters of the game.  The four wins looked good on the scoreboard, but Houston’s opponents had a lot to do with it.  The Texans only average 21.1 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Patriots are only giving up 20.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 23 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We’ll back New England in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Dallas was is in a terrific situational and scheduling spot for their game in Washington last Monday night.  The Cowboys were off an embarrassing 33-14 home loss to Carolina on Thanksgiving day, and they were catching the Redskins in a flat spot off a win as a home underdog.  The Cowboys were also undervalued after losing quarterback Tony Romo in their previous game.  Dallas had extra time to prepare Matt Cassel, and he simply managed the game while leading the Cowboys to a 19-16 win.  Dallas had to hit the road on a short week, so the Cowboys are now the team in the poor scheduling spot.  Offense will be hard to come by for Dallas as the Green Bay defense is only giving up 18.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play at home this season.

Green Bay returns home off a miraculous win in Detroit last Thursday night.  The Packers won on a 61-yard Hail Mary after the game was extended for one play after a defensive penalty.  Green Bay was given a boost by that win, and since they have lost two consecutive home games, we expect the Packers to come with a peak performance in this game.  The Packers have a monumental edge at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers versus Matt Cassel in this game.  Rodgers has quietly amassed a 25/6 touchdown/interception ratio this season, and he will face a middling Dallas secondary that hasn’t faced a potent passing offense since October.  In those games, the Cowboys’ defense gave up 83 total points to Drew Brees, Eli manning, and Tom Brady.  Green Bay is in a terrific spot and catching Dallas at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Packers in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play PACKERS (-).

Pittsburgh is 3-1 over their last four games after going 2-3 in their previous five games.  Aside from the games quarterback Ben Roethlisberger missed, the Steelers’ offense has been fantastic this season; they’ve scored 30 points or more in their last four games.  Overall, Pittsburgh is averaging 25.9 points per game on 6.7 yards per play this season.  The Steelers have played just two road games with Roethlisberger under center this season.  They scored 30 points on 538 yards of offense at Seattle, and they scored 21 points on 464 yards of offense at New England.  The common thing about those two games is that they were both played on artificial turf; Pittsburgh’s home games are played on natural grass.  This game will be played on a fast track in Cincinnati, so the Steelers’ offense will match their offensive performances of their two good road games.            

Cincinnati is in a poor situational spot for this game against Pittsburgh.  The Bengals come in off back-to-back easy wins in which they led wire-to-wire.  Cincinnati beat St. Louis 31-7 two weeks ago, and last week the Bengals beat the Browns 37-3.  Cincinnati led by double digits for the majority of both games, and that simply sets them up to regress in this game.  The Bengals’ defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak collection of opposing offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season.  Against the two good offenses they faced, Cincinnati gave up 34 points to Arizona and 24 points to Seattle.  Their secondary gave up 498 passing yards in those games, and that was with a healthy unit.  They come into this game with cluster injuries, so Roethlisberger will have a lot of success throwing the ball in this game.  Pittsburgh is playing excellent football right now, so we’ll take the Steelers plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

10* Play STEELERS (+).

Golden State is the best team in the NBA as they bring their perfect 24-0 record into Milwaukee tonight.  The Warriors have been steamrolling their opponents while scoring 100 points or more in every game this season.  However, tonight’s game against the Bucks presents a challenging assignment for Golden State.  The Warriors come into this game off a double overtime win in Boston last night.  Golden State had three players play 43 minutes or more while two guys, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, played 46 minutes or more.  The Warriors were without Klay Thompson (ankle), and he’ll be a game-time decision for tonight’s game.  Golden State is also playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their seventh and final game of their long road trip.  This is simply a terrible scheduling and situational spot for the Warriors.     

Milwaukee comes into this game with a disappointing 9-15 record on the season.  However, the Bucks have played significantly better basketball at home where they are 7-5 SU compared to just 2-10 on the road.  Milwaukee returns home off a road loss in Toronto last night, and since they also lost their previous home game, this is a terrific bounce back spot.  The Bucks have excelled when playing at home off a road loss this season.  Milwaukee is a perfect 4-0 SU, including 3-0 ATS as home underdogs in those games.  The Bucks beat Cleveland and Detroit in this situation, so they’ve shown they can beat some pretty good teams.  We’ll take the points with Milwaukee in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play BUCKS (+).

Oregon comes into this game with a good-looking 7-1 record on the season, but those wins have come against an extremely soft schedule.  The Ducks also began the season with six consecutive home games, and their last two games have come on a neutral court.  Tonight’s game against Boise State will be Oregon’s first true road game of the season, and they’ll be playing this game shorthanded.  The Ducks will be without their leading scorer and top assist guy, Tyler Dorsey, due to a knee injury.  Dorsey is averaging 14.4 points and 2.9 assists per game.  Oregon likes to play an up-tempo style of basketball, but their ability to score easy baskets in transition will be limited without Dorsey on the court.

Boise State has been a terrific team over the last three seasons.  The Broncos have won 21 games or more the last three years, and they are set to eclipse their 25 wins of a season ago.  Boise State is an experienced and veteran team that has an efficient offense and a strong, half-court defense.  The Broncos are just 6-4 on the season, but two of those losses came to Arizona, and another loss came to Michigan State.  Boise State is a much better team than their record indicates, and they are better than Oregon who is 7-1.  The Broncos don’t often get to host a Pac 12 team on their home court, so this is a game that is quite important.  Boise State is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Oklahoma City comes into tonight’s game in Utah off back-to-back perfect offensive performances.  The Thunder scored 232 points in those games while shooting 52.4% (86-164) from the field, 51.1% (22-43) from three-point land, and 77.6% (38-49) from the free throw line.  Those two peak offensive performances against Memphis and Atlanta set Oklahoma City up in a letdown spot tonight, especially since they are back on the road.  The Thunder played in Memphis on Tuesday night and at home against the Hawks last night.  Now they must hit the road again on a back-to-back set while playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  This will also be Oklahoma City’s third game in four nights and their fourth game in six nights.    

Utah plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, and they combine that slow tempo with a strong and efficient defense.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when they are playing against a team that likes to play at a crisp offensive pace.  Utah’s defense is holding opponents to just 96.2 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Jazz are also 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season, and the combination of Utah’s slow pace and good defense will keep them in this game against Oklahoma City.  We’ll take the points with Utah on Friday night.

9* Play JAZZ (+).

Orlando is flying well under the radar this season.  The Magic come into this game with a 12-9 record, and a sterling 14-6-1 mark against the spread.  Orlando plays at a slow pace, and they combine that slow tempo with the 5th best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when they are playing an offensive team that likes to play at a fast pace.  Orlando is 10-3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and they are 6-1 SU over their last seven games.  Orlando’s defense is in excellent current form; they’ve held their last five opponents to just 91 points per game on 40% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land.

Phoenix is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s home game against Orlando.  The Suns are returning home off a 6-game road trip that had them on the East Coast and in the Midwest over a 9-day span.  They’ve had just one day off since returning home, so it’s unlikely they will come with their best effort, especially since they rallied from a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the Bulls on Monday night.  The Suns are 0-7 SU when scoring less than 100 points this season; Orlando has given up more than 100 points in just six games this season, and three of those games went to overtime.  Orlando is a strong defensive underdog, so we’ll take the points with the Magic on Wednesday night.

10* Play MAGIC (+).

Utah plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, and they combine that slow tempo with the 12th best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when they are playing a team that likes to play at a crisp offensive pace.  Utah’s defense is holding opponents to just 95.9 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land.  The Jazz are also 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and they’ve won their last three meetings against the Kings while holding them to just 90, 91, and 95 points. 

Sacramento comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Kings have lost three consecutive games, and five of their last six games overall.  Sacramento is playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  The Kings are 6-7 SU when scoring 100 points or more this season, but just 1-8 SU when failing to eclipse the century mark.  The combination of Utah’s slow pace and good defense will prevent the Kings from scoring 100 points in this game, so we’ll take the points with Utah on Tuesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

Stony Brook returned all five starters this season from last year’s 23-win team.  The Seawolves also landed JUCO transfer Ahmad Walker who is averaging 10.5 points per game this season.  Stony Brook’s offense is explosive; they are averaging 76.2 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field.  Stony Brook is 4-2 on the season with their losses coming by a combined 8 points, including an overtime loss at Vanderbilt.  The Seawolves are a deep team that uses a 10-man rotation with every guy averaging at least 13 minutes per game.  Stony Brook is also an excellent rebounding team that owns a +18 margin per game on the glass.  This is a rare national TV game against a name team for Stony Brook, so we expect a peak performance by the Seawolves.

Notre Dame is 5-2 on the season, and the Irish have alternated wins and losses over their last five games.  They come off a win in their last game, so if their recent pattern holds up, the Irish will be looking at a defeat in this game.  Notre Dame’s wins this season have come against St. Francis (PA), Wisconsin-Milwaukee, UMass-Lowell, Iowa, and Illinois.  The Irish lost to Monmouth and Alabama.  Notre Dame is taking a step-up in class against Stony Brook in this game as the Seawolves are rated higher in efficiency metrics than the opponents the Irish have played so far this season.  In a game that will be close throughout, we’ll take Stony Brook plus the points on Tuesday night.

9* Play STONY BROOK (+).

Dallas has had a very disappointing season; the Cowboys come into this game with a 3-8 record.  And last week they lost quarterback Tony Romo (collarbone) for the rest of the season.  Dallas is used to playing without Romo this year; he has missed seven of eleven games.  The Cowboys’ season is lost, but tonight’s game in Washington gives them an opportunity to get a much-needed win.  Matt Cassel will take over at quarterback, and he will rely on running back Darren McFadden to carry the offensive workload in this game.  McFadden should produce as Washington’s rush defense ranks 21st in efficiency while giving up 126.6 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.       

Washington has been up and down this season.  The Redskins have alternated wins and losses in their last six games, and in fact, they’ve alternated wins and losses in ten of their eleven games this season.  The Redskins won their last game, so if their trend holds up, a poor effort resulting in a loss will play out tonight, especially since Washington has yet to win back-to-back games this season.  The Redskins have been home underdogs in five of their six home games, but now they are laying a field goal into a divisional opponent.  In the one game in which they were favored at home, Washington trailed Tampa Bay 24-0 before rallying back for a 31-30 win.  The Cowboys’ defense is only allowing 17.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season.  Washington has no business laying points into any team, so we’ll take Dallas plus the points in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play COWBOYS (+).

Boston is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for this game in New Orleans on Monday night.  The Celtics will conclude their 5-game road trip that had them go from Florida to California to Texas to Louisiana in the span of nine days.  Boston had to play in multiple time zones as well, and the tough travel and changing climates have taken their toll.  The Celtics are already without Marcus Smart, and reports indicate Avery Bradley missed shootaround this morning because of an illness; good chance he misses this game.  David Lee and R.J. Hunter will also miss this game with injuries, so the Celtics will be quite thin for this game.  Boston lost 108-105 in San Antonio in their recent game, and they used up a lot of energy while rallying from 15 points down in the fourth quarter.  The Celtics are an injured and fatigued team right now, and they will be facing an opponent that is healthy, fresh and ready for this game.     

New Orleans has had a terrible season so far; the Pelicans come into this game with a 5-15 record.  However, the team has suffered thru numerous injuries which caused their rotation to be out of whack.  But the Pelicans are now back to full strength, and we’ve seen them play much better basketball in recent games.  New Orleans comes in off a win over Cleveland on Friday night in which they scored 114 points on 49.4% (42-85) shooting from the field.  Five players scored 13 points or more in that game.  The Pelicans have had two full days to get ready for this game, and in an odd scheduling quirk, they won’t play another game until Friday night.  So tonight’s game is quite important for New Orleans, and they are catching the Celtics at the perfect time.  We’ll back New Orleans in this game on Monday night.

9* Play PELICANS (+).

Carolina comes into this game as the lone remaining unbeaten team in the NFL.  The Panthers have a perfect 11-0 record, including a win over New Orleans back in Week 3.  Carolina only won that game 27-22 on their home field despite Luke McCown playing quarterback for the injured Drew Brees.  The Panthers’ defense was shredded by a backup quarterback as McCown completed 81.6% (31-38) of his passes for 310 yards.  If McCown did that to the Panthers in Carolina, then Brees has some serious potential to carve up Carolina’s secondary at home on a fast track inside a dome.  The Panthers have won their last three games by a combined score of 104-40 which sets them up to regress sharply in this game.  Carolina’s offense is only averaging 4.7 yards per play on the road this season which is well below their overall average of 5.4 yards per play.

The Saints return home off back-to-back road losses in Washington and Houston.  New Orleans has played much better football at home where they are 3-2 this season with one of those losses coming in overtime.  The setup for this game couldn’t be any better for New Orleans.  The Saints will bring their peak effort in this game, and their potent home offense will lead the way.  New Orleans is averaging 31.2 points per game on 435.2 yards of offense at home this season.  The Saints average 6.3 yards per play inside the dome, so Carolina’s defense will have their worst game of the season.  This is an exceptional spot to play against Carolina, and since New Orleans is primed for their best, we’ll take the points with the Saints in a game they have a very good shot at winning outright.  

10* Play SAINTS (+).

Houston is 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games.  The Texans have won three of those four games by 7 points or more with their average win coming by 10.8 points per game.  Their defense held all four opponents to just 35 total points with three teams scoring just 6 points each.  However, Houston beat Tennessee with Zach Mettenberger at quarterback, they beat a New York Jets team that was on a 1-3 slide, and they beat New Orleans who is just 1-5 on the road this season.  Houston also won at Cincinnati, but that was a phony win as they only had 256 yards of total offense while scoring just 3 total points thru the first three quarters of the game.  So while the four wins look good on the scoreboard, Houston’s opponents had a lot to do with it.  The Texans are set to regress in this game, especially since their offense only averages 21 points per game on 4.8 yards per play on the road this season.

Buffalo returns home off three consecutive road games.  This will be just their third home game since October 18th, and off back-to-back losses, we expect a peak performance by Buffalo.  The Bills have three home losses this season, but two of those losses came to the Patriots and Bengals who are a combined 19-3 on the season.  All three of the home defeats came against teams with excellent passing offenses, but Buffalo will face a Texans’ passing offense that is only averaging 5.7 yards per pass attempt on the road this season.  Overall, the Bills have played above average football on both sides of the ball.  Buffalo is averaging 24.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play at home this season.  In their two home wins against teams on their level, the Bills held the Colts to just 14 points and the Dolphins to just 17 points.  Buffalo is set for a peak performance while Houston is set to regress, so we’ll lay the points with the Bills in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BILLS (-).

Indiana has played good basketball this season as they come into this game with a 12-6 record.  However, the Pacers are not in the best of spots for this game in Utah.  Indiana is paying their fourth consecutive road game, and this will be their eighth road game in their last twelve games overall.  They will also be playing their third game in four nights, and that’s not a good thing when playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  The Pacers are 9-2 SU when scoring 100 points or more this season, but just 3-4 SU when failing to eclipse the century mark.  One of those losses came at home earlier this season when the Jazz beat them 97-76. 

Utah plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, and they combine that slow tempo with the 10th best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when they are playing a team that likes to play at a crisp offensive pace.  Utah’s defense is holding opponents to just 94.5 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Jazz are also 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season, including a spread cover as home underdogs against the Warriors on Monday night.  We’ll take the points with Utah in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play JAZZ (+).

Cleveland is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Miami.  The Cavaliers lost 114-108 in overtime last night in New Orleans.  Cleveland trailed by 13 points in that game before making a furious comeback that came up just short in overtime.  Five players played 32 minutes or more with four guys playing 36 minutes or more and two guys playing 42 minutes or more.  LeBron James played a perfect game while scoring 37 points over 44 minutes of action.  Now Cleveland must hit the road, and play on a back-to-back set after a grueling overtime game.  The Cavaliers are not in good current form either as they are just 2-3 over their last five games with their two wins coming by a total of 7 points.

Miami plays at the fourth slowest pace in the NBA, and they combine that slow tempo with the 2nd best defense in terms of efficiency.  Miami’s defense is holding opponents to just 92.6 points per game on 41% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense has been even better over their last five games while holding opponents to just 92 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land.  Miami is catching Cleveland as the perfect time, so we’ll back the strong defensive home team in this game Saturday night.

9* Play HEAT (-).

USC and Stanford will play for the second time this season; the Cardinal won 41-31 way back in Week 3.  The Trojans were 9.5-point home favorites in that game, and they jumped out to a 21-3 lead late in the second quarter.  Stanford only won yardage 474-427 despite having a 39:29-20:31 time of possession edge.  USC ran for 155 yards on 5.5 yards per rush, and quarterback Cody Kessler completed 78.1% (25-32) of his passes for 272 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Overall this season, USC is averaging 36 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow 28.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  USC’s defense has also played terrific this season; the Trojans are only giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that average 34.1 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.

Stanford comes into this game as winners of ten of their last eleven games.  However, the Cardinal have been fortunate in a couple of those recent games.  Stanford needed a missed field goal to escape Washington State, and last week they beat Notre Dame on a last-second field goal.  Stanford was gouged on the ground by the Irish last week as they gave up 299 rushing yards on a whopping 8.5 yards per rush.  Stanford has struggled to stop the run all season while giving up 144.3 yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.  USC gashed them in the first meeting, and they’ll do so again as the Trojans average 177 yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.  My power ratings only make Stanford a 2.5-point favorite in this game, so there’s excellent value in getting more than a field goal in this game.  We’ll take USC plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play USC (+).

Golden State is the best team in the NBA as they bring their perfect 20-0 record into Toronto tonight.  The Warriors have been steamrolling their opponents while scoring 100 points or more in every game this season.  However, tonight’s game against the Raptors presents a challenging assignment for Golden State.  The Warriors come into this game after playing fast-paced teams in five of their last six games.  Golden State averaged 120 points per game in those five games while winning all five by 13 points or more.  In their lone game against a slow-paced team, the Warriors only beat the Jazz by 3 points (106-103).  Toronto plays a similar style as Utah, so Golden State will have a hard time winning this game by margin.

Toronto comes into this game off a home loss to the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night.  That was excusable as they made a big comeback to win in Atlanta the night before.  Off the poor effort, and with a full day of rest, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight.  The Raptors play at a slow pace, and they combine that slow tempo with the 8th best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when playing a team that likes to play as fast as possible.  Toronto’s defense is in excellent current form as they are holding opponents to just 96 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS as underdogs this season, so we’ll take the points in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Milwaukee comes into this game in terrible current form; the Bucks are just 3-9 SU over their last twelve games.  Milwaukee’s defense has been atrocious all season long, especially on the road, and it’s a major reason why they have a losing record.  The Bucks are allowing 104.6 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 40.9% shooting from three-point land away from home.  Milwaukee has lost seven consecutive road games with five of those seven losses coming by 14 points or more.  Milwaukee’s average loss in those games has come by a whopping 19.4 points per game.   

Detroit began the season with a 5-1 record before hitting the skids and losing eight of their next eleven games.  But the Pistons have won their last two games at home after some outstanding offensive performances.  Detroit scored 116 and 127 points in those games while shooting 51.7% (89-172) from the field.  Their scoring ways will continue tonight against a poor Milwaukee defense.  This is also a revenge game for the Pistons after getting embarrassed 109-88 by the Bucks in Milwaukee just eleven days ago.  Detroit is now the team in better current form, and since they are the superior team, we’ll lay the points with the Pistons in this game on Friday night.

10* Play PISTONS (-).

Oklahoma City had their 4-game winning streak snapped in Atlanta on Monday night.  The Thunder trailed by 16 points in that game before making a furious comeback that came up just short.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City has been able to play their preferred style of up-tempo basketball; the Thunder scored 100 points or more in each game.  However, tonight’s game against Miami presents a challenging assignment for Oklahoma City.  The Thunder will face a much different tempo tonight as the Heat like to play at a slow pace.  Oklahoma City is 11-3 SU this season when scoring 100 points or more.  In games in which they score less than 100 points, the Thunder own an 0-4 record this season.  Miami has held their opponents to less than 100 points in 11 of their 16 games this season.  

Miami plays at the third slowest pace in the NBA, and they combine that slow tempo with the 3rd best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when they are playing a team that likes to play at a fast pace.  Miami’s defense is holding opponents to just 92.5 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense has been even better over their last five games while holding opponents to just 91.2 points per game on 39.4% shooting from the field and 34.2% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take the points with the strong defensive home underdog in this game Thursday night.

10* Play HEAT (+).

Toronto comes into this game off a home loss to the Phoenix Suns on Sunday night.  Off that poor effort, and with two full days of rest, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight in Atlanta.  The Raptors play at a slow pace, and they combine that slow tempo with the 9th best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when playing a team that likes to play at a crisp offensive pace.  Toronto’s defense is in excellent current form as they are holding opponents to just 91.8 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Raptors are 6-1 ATS as underdogs this season with five of those spread covers coming on the road.

Atlanta has had little consistency this season due to players going in and out of the lineup.  The Hawks have alternated wins and losses over their last eight games; they come in off a 106-100 win as 3-point home underdogs to the Thunder on Monday night.  If their recent pattern holds up, the Hawks will regress and lose tonight’s game.  The Raptors present a challenging assignment for Atlanta.  The Hawks are 9-1 SU when scoring 100 points or more this season, but just 3-7 SU when failing to eclipse the century mark.  Those three wins came by 6, 3, and 2 points which shows how much they’ve struggled against good defensive teams.  We’ll take the points with Toronto in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Tulsa returned all five starters this season, including their top eight players from last year’s 24-win team.  Tulsa’s offense is explosive; they are averaging 77.8 points per game.  “We finally bought into Coach Haith’s system and the ball movement has been very good for us,” James Woodard said.  “We’re getting a lot of assists off each other and moving off the ball, that’s what they’ve been preaching. It’s hard for teams to guard if everybody’s clicking on all cylinders.”  Tulsa comes into this game off a poor home loss to Arkansas-Little Rock in a game they only scored 60 points.  But off that poor performance, we expect a strong bounce back tonight, especially against an Oklahoma State team that is playing shorthanded.

Oklahoma State is 5-1 on the season, but the Cowboys have played nothing in terms of competition.  Their wins have come against Long Beach State twice, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Tennessee-Martin and Towson.  Oklahoma State is taking a monumental step-up in class against Tulsa in this game, and they are doing so without their leading scorer Phil Forte and key reserve Tavarius Shine.  “They’re probably a better basketball team than we are right now, just from the fact that they’re experienced, things like that,” head coach Travis Ford said.  “We understand we have a great challenge in front of us.”  We’ll take Tulsa plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play TULSA (+).

Maryland is a perfect 6-0 on the season, and they are very confident that they will remain undefeated after tonight’s game against North Carolina.  The Terrapins have a terrific point guard in Melo Trimble and a roster loaded with height that makes them a formidable opponent for the Tar Heels.  Head coach Mark Turgeon is expecting his team to play one of their best games of the season because Maryland will finally be able to play their tall lineup for the majority of the game.  “You know, we are built for games like this. Rhode Island was a big team and we matched up well with them (86-63 win). Carolina will allow us to play our big lineup for 40 mins. It’s a good matchup for us.”

North Carolina comes into this game with a 5-1 record with their lone loss coming against Northern Iowa.  The Tar Heels will get point guard Marcus Paige back on the court; he’s been out with a broken right hand.  Paige is set to play, but how effective will he be in his first game with new players surrounding him?  It’s simply going to take some time for Paige to get back into game-speed shape.  North Carolina has also failed to cover the pointspread in four consecutive games despite playing inferior teams.  Maryland is the better team at this point, and this is the Terrapins’ biggest game in a long time.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Maryland plus the points on Tuesday night.

10* Play MARYLAND (+).

Golden State is the best team in the NBA as they bring their perfect 18-0 record into Utah tonight.  The Warriors have been steamrolling their opponents while scoring 100 points or more in every game this season.  However, tonight’s game against the Jazz presents a challenging assignment for Golden State.  The Warriors come into this game off four consecutive games against fast-paced teams.  Golden State averaged 121 points per game while winning all four games by 13 points or more.  However, the Warriors will be facing a totally different opponent tonight, and the change in style and pace will prevent Golden State from winning this game by a double digit margin.    

Utah plays at the slowest pace in the NBA, and they combine that slow tempo with the 7th best defense in terms of efficiency.  That’s a perfect combination for an underdog, especially when they are playing a superior team that likes to play as fast as possible.  Utah has the defense to play with Golden State; the Jazz are holding opponents to just 93.2 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land.  The Jazz are also 5-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and all of those games have come on the road.  Utah is also in good form after back-to-back wins, so they are confident coming into this game.  We’ll take the points with Utah in this game on Monday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

Baltimore has had a very disappointing season; the Ravens come into this game with a 3-7 record.  And last week they lost quarterback Joe Flacco (ACL/MCL) and running back Justin Forsett (broken arm) for the rest of the season.  The Ravens’ season is lost, but tonight’s game in Cleveland gives them an opportunity to get a much-needed win.  Matt Schaub will take over at quarterback, but he will rely on running back Buck Allen to carry the offensive workload in this game.  Allen was very good in relief of Forsett last week when he totaled 115 yards on the ground and thru the air against a pretty good St. Louis defense.  Allen should produce once again tonight as the Brown’s rush defense ranks 29th in efficiency while giving up 138.8 yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush.       

Cleveland is having another dysfunctional season, especially at the quarterback position.  Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel has been in and out, and it was Manziel slated to finish the rest of the season.  However, he recently got in trouble off the field, so McCown will be the quarterback tonight.  In the first meeting of the season, Cleveland won 33-30 in Baltimore as 6-point road underdogs.  The Ravens’ defense was a mess back then, and McCown took advantage.  However, the Ravens are in much better form now as they’ve held their last two opponents to just 35 total points.  Baltimore allowed just 47.9% (34-71) completions for 324 yards on 4.6 yards per pass attempt in this games.  The Ravens’ run defense was also stout while holding those opponents to just 128 yards on 2.8 yards per rush.  Cleveland has no business laying points into any team, so we’ll take Baltimore plus the points in this game on Monday night. 

9* Play RAVENS (+).

New England is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL, and they’ll remain that way after tonight’s game.  The Patriots are 10-0 with nine of those wins coming by 7 points or more.  While it’s true New England comes into this game at less than 100% with multiple offensive injuries, head coach Bill Belichick is the master at devising a game plan to attack the opponents’ weakness.  The Patriots are the best scheming team in the NFL, and quarterback Tom Brady has one of the quickest releases.  That ability negates Denver’s pass rush which in turn makes a short passing game very dangerous.  New England knows they’ll have little success running on Denver, so we expect to see the Patriots spread the Broncos out and dink and dunk their way downfield.

Denver won 17-15 in Chicago last week, but they needed to stop a 2-point conversion to prevent overtime.  The buzz is all about quarterback Brock Osweiler in his performance replacing Peyton Manning.  While he was good in his first start, he was facing a terrible Chicago defense.  He naturally figures to regress in his second start, especially since he’ll be facing an underrated New England defense.  The Patriots are only giving up 18.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Denver’s offense is only averaging 22.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite facing defenses that allow 23.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  We’ll back New England in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Miami got a nice boost after head coach Joe Philbin got fired.  The Dolphins won their first two games under interim coach Dan Campbell, but since those initial wins, the team has been terrible.  Miami is just 1-3 over their last four games with their lone win being very fortunate; they beat the Eagles 20-19 despite getting out-yarded 436-289 while coming back from a 16-3 deficit.  Miami’s offense has underperformed while only averaging 20.5 points per game versus defenses that allow 23.1 points per game.  The Dolphins have been even worse on the road where they are only averaging 19 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Miami’s defense is in shambles with their top lineman, Cameron Wake, on injured reserve.  The Dolphins’ secondary is also a mess; they’ve allowed 1,429 passing yards on 8.2 yards per pass attempt with a 11/4 touchdown/interception ratio over the last five games.     

New York comes into this game in desperate need of a win; they’ve lost four of their last five games.  The Jets will be primed for a big effort in this game, especially since they manhandled the Dolphins in London earlier this season.  New York won that game 27-14 while out-yarding Miami 425-226.  The Jets dominated the line of scrimmage while running for 207 yards with Chris Ivory leading the way with 166 yards on 29 carries.  The Jets will repeat that performance in this game, especially since Miami is giving up 142.6 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush on the road this season.  New York’s defense is only allowing 19.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play at home this season.  New York is the better team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play JETS (-).

Buffalo is finally healthy again, and we’ve seen a much better team on the field in recent weeks.  The Bills have won two of their last three games with their loss coming by just 7 points at New England last Monday night.  Buffalo is now in a good bounce back spot after facing one of the best teams in the league.  The Bills are getting just a couple of points less in this game than they got against the Patriots, and they are facing a team that is on their level.  Buffalo’s defense has been terrific on the road this season where they are only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Overall, the Bills have been excellent against the run while holding opponents to just 96.2 yards per game on the ground.  Their ability to stop the run will be a major factor in this game.  

Kansas City is 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games.  The Chiefs have won all four of those games by 10 points or more with their average win coming by an incredible 22.8 points per game.  However, Kansas City has been fortunate in those games.  The Chiefs beat Pittsburgh with Landry Jones at quarterback, they beat a 1-6 Detroit team, they beat Denver when Peyton Manning got hurt, and last week they beat a 2-7 San Diego team.  So while the four wins were all impressive on the scoreboard, Kansas City’s opponents had a lot to do with it.  The Chiefs are set to regress in this game, especially since they will be facing a strong Buffalo defense.  Kansas City needs to run the ball to have success, but they will have a difficult time running with consistency against the Bills.  We expect this game to be close throughout, so we’ll take Buffalo plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BILLS (+).

Texas A&M comes into this game with an 8-3 record, but the Aggies have faced a soft schedule while playing just two true road games all season.  They lost 23-3 at Mississippi, but last week they won 25-0 at Vanderbilt.  Their two neutral site games were both in the state of Texas which means the Aggies have played just two of their eleven games this season outside of the state.  Now they are taking a major step-up in class for this night game at LSU, and they are doing so off a perfect performance.  Texas A&M’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 27.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Despite playing at home and against poor defenses, the Aggies are only averaging 30.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Texas A&M is taking a major step-up in defensive class against LSU in this game, and that’s not a good thing considering their offense is set to regress.    

LSU comes into this game on 3-game losing streak with rumors swirling that head coach Les Miles will be let go.  The Tigers played two of their last three games on the road, and since they also lost their last home game, we expect a strong bounce back effort here.  LSU has an excellent defense that is only giving up 25.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 31.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  LSU’s offense has a terrific running game that is averaging 282.8 yards per game on a whopping 6.4 yards per rush at home this season.  They will face a Texas A&M defense that is giving up 202.5 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.  All five of LSU’s home wins have come by 7 points or more with their average home win coming by 20.3 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with the Tigers in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play LSU (-).

North Carolina has had a fantastic season so far as they come into this game with a 10-1 record with their lone loss coming way back in their season opener.  But are they as good as their record indicates?  Not quite.  We won a Best Bet selection on Virginia Tech against North Carolina last week, and we’ll come right back and play against the Tar Heels again this week.  They’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the country, and seven of their last ten games have come on their home field.  North Carolina has played just three true road games all season with the wins coming by a combined 17 points.  The Tar Heels were 6.5-point underdogs at Georgia Tech, 1-point favorites at Pittsburgh, and 3.5-point favorites at Virginia Tech last week.  North Carolina’s defensive numbers are skewed by the fact that they’ve faced a terrible slate of opposing offenses that only average 24.1 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Tar Heels will face a NC State offense that is averaging 36 points per game at home this season.  

NC State comes into this game with a solid 7-4 record.  That winning mark has come despite playing six of their last nine games on the road.  The Wolfpack has played excellent football on both sides of the ball this season.  NC State is averaging 33.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 26.3 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Wolfpack offense has been even better at home as noted above.  NC State’s defense is only giving up 21.8 points per game on 5.1 yards per play against offenses that average 25.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  My power ratings only make North Carolina a 3-point favorite in this game, so there is some good value on the home underdog.  We’ll take the Wolfpack plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play NC STATE (+).

Georgia is 8-3 on the season, but the Bulldogs have not been impressive at all.  Georgia opened the season with four straight blowout wins, but since October, they’ve underperformed on both sides of the ball.  Georgia is just 4-3 over their last seven games with their four wins coming by 3, 6 in overtime, 7, and 24 points.  That 24-point win came against a terrible Kentucky team.  The Bulldogs have played just two true road games over their last nine games, and they’ve played mediocre football despite playing on their home field.  The Bulldogs are only averaging 21.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season.  Georgia’s defense has also played worse on the road where they are giving up 23 points per game on 5.2 yards per play compared to just 17.8 points per game on 4.7 yards per play overall.   

Georgia Tech comes into this game with a 3-8 record after losing their last three games.  The Yellow Jackets were favored in four of their last five games, but now Georgia Tech is getting more than a field goal at home in this game which creates a lot of value, especially since my power ratings make this game a Pick.  The Yellow Jackets possess a potent rushing attack that averages 262.4 yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush.  Overall this season, Georgia Tech’s offense is averaging 31.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 28.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Georgia Tech’s last win came as home underdogs against Florida State, and we wouldn’t be shocked by a similar outcome here.  We’ll take Georgia Tech plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Tennessee is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Volunteers are in their first year under former Texas head coach Rick Barnes.  He has very little to work with as Tennessee lost their best player last season to the NBA; Josh Richardson averaged 16 points per game.  The Volunteers come into this game with a 4-1 record, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule thus far.  Their four wins have come against N.C. Asheville, Marshall, Gardner-Webb, and Army.  All four of those teams are terrible.  Tennessee’s lone loss came against a mediocre Georgia Tech team.  Tennessee is taking a major step-up in class in this game against George Washington, and we fully expect the Volunteers to lose by a double digit margin.

George Washington is ready for a breakout season under head coach Mike Lonergan.  The Colonials have won 46 games over the last two seasons, and the team returned four starters this season.  They come into this game with a perfect 5-0 record that includes an impressive 73-68 win over Virginia.  George Washington has one of the biggest lineups in the country, and their ability to stifle opponents with their defense makes them a difficult team to score points on.  The Colonials’ defense is holding teams to just 39.1% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land this season.  George Washington is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Colonials on Friday night.

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (-).

Iowa comes into this game with a perfect 11-0 record, and they are currently ranked #4 in the country.  However, you’d be hard-pressed to find many (except Iowa fans) that really believe they are the fourth best team in the country.  The Hawkeyes have played an extremely weak schedule, and their two toughest games were both close games which they could have easily lost.  Iowa beat Pittsburgh 27-24, and they beat Wisconsin 10-6; both games were defensive scrums.  The Hawkeyes have faced a poor slate of opposing defenses that allow 169.9 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush as a group.  Iowa’s ability to run the ball successfully on those teams allowed their mediocre passing attack to hit plays downfield.  But Iowa will face a stout Nebraska rush defense that is only giving up 109.8 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per rush this season.  Iowa’s offense becomes very easy to defend when unable to run the football.

Nebraska comes into this game with a 5-6 record, but the Cornhuskers could actually be 10-1 on the season.  Their six losses have come by a combined 23 points, and incredibly, four of their six losses have come on the final play of the game.  Nebraska has faced much tougher defensive opponents than Iowa, and the Cornhuskers have performed better.  Nebraska is averaging 33.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus opponents that only give up 25 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Cornhuskers will have success moving the ball on an Iowa defense that has faced a terrible slate of offensive teams that only average 23.5 points per game on 5.1 yards per play combined.  My power ratings make Nebraska a 4-point favorite, so there’s tremendous value in taking the Cornhuskers as a home underdog in this game.  Nebraska also comes into this game off a bye, so they are rested and ready to hand Iowa their first loss of the season.  We’ll back Nebraska in this game on Friday afternoon. 

10* Play NEBRASKA (+).

Chicago is playing much better football now after opening the season at 0-3.  The Bears are 4-3 SU and a terrific 6-1 ATS over their last seven games.  Their three recent losses could have been wins as well; they lost each of those games by 3 points or less.  The Bears are 3-1 on the road during their recent stretch while averaging 27.8 points per game.  Chicago’s offense has actually played better on the road this season where they are averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Bears have a strong passing attack that will be able to rack up yards thru the air on a Green Bay secondary that is in terrible current form.  The Packers have allowed 1,127 passing yards in their last four games despite playing weak passing offenses like the Vikings, Panthers, Broncos, and Lions.  On a short week, the Packers have had no time to fix their problems, so we expect another poor performance from Green Bay’s defense in this game.

Green Bay has played bad football in the month of November.  The Packers are just 1-3 this month with their lone win coming last week in Minnesota.  They won that game despite getting out-yarded 342-320.  Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater completed 25 of his 37 passes for 296 yards which shows how bad the Packers’ defense has played as noted above.  Overall, the Packers’ defense is allowing 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that only average 5.6 yards per play.  The first meeting in Chicago resulted in an 8-point Green Bay win, but that was the season opener when the Bears were looking for an identity under new head coach John Fox.  The Bears are playing much better now while Green Bay is playing worse, so we’ll take the Bears plus the points on Thursday night.

9* Play BEARS (+).

Carolina is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL; they are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS.  The Panthers have been impressive on both sides of the ball this season, but they’ve played an extremely weak slate of opponents.  Carolina’s offense has faced a collection of defenses that are allowing 24.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Despite that, the Panthers are only averaging 5.5 yards per play.  Carolina’s defense is only giving up 19.1 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  However, they’ve put those numbers up against a group of opposing offenses that only average 22.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  In their lone road game against a good opponent, Carolina gave up 23 points to the Seahawks in a game they trailed 20-7 at one point before coming back to win with just 32 seconds left to play.      

Dallas has had a disappointing season; the Cowboys come into this game with a 3-7 record.  Their troubles began when they lost quarterback Tony Romo to a broken collarbone back in Week 2.  The Cowboys’ three wins have come with Romo under center; they went 0-7 in the games Romo missed.  He returned for last week’s game in Miami, and Dallas cruised to an easy 24-14 win.  The Cowboys’ formula for success is to lean on their running game behind their strong offensive line; their ability to run the ball means they can control the clock and keep Carolina’s offense off the field.  Dallas simply matches-up extremely well with Carolina, so we’ll back the Cowboys in this game on Thursday afternoon. 

10* Play COWBOYS.

Memphis is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for this game in Houston on Wednesday night.  The Grizzlies won 110-96 at home over the Dallas Mavericks last night, but all five starters played 29 minutes or more with three guys playing 34 minutes or more.  Despite scoring 110 points, Memphis shot the ball terribly; they hit just 43% (37-86) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  The Grizzlies scored 29 points on 37 free throw attempts.  The Grizzlies have been playing better basketball recently, but it’s actually been by default because of injuries.  “We’re just trying to hold down the fort until we can get some size back into the lineup,” head coach Dave Joerger said.  “We’re playing different than we have and we haven’t been able to practice. We haven’t practiced in two weeks. It’s just a different kind of deal in what you’re trying to do. But where we are right now, it’s very difficult. We’re trying to manage as best we can.”  Zach Randolph has missed the last two games, and he is listed as questionable tonight.  But regardless if he plays or not, Memphis will be playing on a back-to-back set while their opponent is fresh and ready after having last night off.

Houston has had a terrible season so far; the Rockets come into this game with a 5-9 record.  Their poor start got Kevin McHale fired, and J.B. Bickerstaff has assumed the interim head coaching role.  Houston has made some terrific improvements on the defensive slide of the ball under Bickerstaff.  In eleven games under McHale, the Rockets were allowing 108.5 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field.  Under Bickerstaff, the Rockets are allowing 102.0 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field.  The Rockets just played in Memphis five days ago and they lost 96-84.  But they are ready for the rematch tonight: “We had some really good days of practice,” Dwight Howard said.  “We got some really good work in. We’re looking forward to tonight.”  Houston will also get Patrick Beverley back from injury; he is their best perimeter defender.  The Rockets have had three full days to prepare for this game while the Grizzlies will be playing their fourth game in six nights.  We’ll lay the points with Houston in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play ROCKETS (-).

Wake Forest pulled off a huge upset last night when they beat Indiana 82-78 as 12.5-point underdogs.  That win was one of the biggest for the Demon Deacons since Danny Manning became head coach.  Wake Forest put everything they had into that game, and they played well above their level.  The Demon Deacons shot 50.7% (35-69) from the field and 42.9% (6-14) from three-point land.  Wake Forest also plays a short rotation, and they had four starters play 30 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 33 minutes or more.  The Demon Deacons only go 7 deep, and one of those two reserves played 24 minutes.  Wake Forest is in a major flat spot, and they will be playing on tired legs against a team that is simply superior to them.           

Vanderbilt steamrolled St. John’s 92-55 last night.  The Commodores shot 53.2% (33-62) from the field and 48% (12-25) from three-point land.  Vanderbilt’s big win allowed head coach Kevin Stallings to rest his starters; all five played 25 minutes or less.  In fact, Vanderbilt had 10 players play double digit minutes, and the majority of the scoring and hot shooting came from the reserves.  The Commodores are well rested for this game, and their starters will be ready for their best effort.  Vanderbilt also has a much better defense than what Wake Forest faced last night, so the Commodores will force the Demon Deacons into a bad offensive output.  Vanderbilt is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night. 

9* Play VANDERBILT (-).

Buffalo is finally healthy again, and we’ve seen a much better team on the field in recent weeks.  The Bills come into tonight’s game off back-to-back division wins over the Dolphins and Jets, so they have plenty of momentum and confidence heading into New England.  Buffalo hosted the Patriots back in Week 2, and heavy money came in on the Bills and they went from small underdogs to 2-point favorites.  The result was ugly; Buffalo lost 40-32 in a game that was nowhere as close as the final score indicates.  The Bills trailed 37-13 going into the fourth quarter.  Now the Bills are getting a full touchdown in the rematch, and that simply creates value on the underdog.  Buffalo’s defense has been terrific on the road this season where they are only giving up 19.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  

New England is one of two remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL; they are 9-0 SU but just 5-4 ATS.  The Patriots have exceptional offensive numbers this season, but unfortunately, New England will be without two important players tonight because of injury.  Julien Edelman and Dion Lewis both got hurt last week, and when they went out, we saw New England’s offense struggle to move the football.  In the first meeting against Buffalo, Edelman and Lewis caught 17 passes on 28 targets for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Patriots’ passing offense will be all Rob Gronkowski now, so Buffalo’s defense will surely game plan to contain him tonight.  We expect the second meeting to be much closer than the first, so we’ll take Buffalo plus the points in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play BILLS (+).

Dallas has had a disappointing season; the Cowboys come into this game with a 2-7 record.  Their troubles began when they lost quarterback Tony Romo to a broken collarbone back in Week 2.  The Cowboys’ two wins came in their first two games when Romo played; they are simply a much different team with him under center.  He returns for this game, and his presence will give Dallas a major boost and allow them to snap their 7-game losing streak.  The Cowboys have a significant edge on the line of scrimmage, and their ability to run the ball means they won’t have to rely on Romo’s arm to win.  Dallas will face a weak Miami defensive line that has been gashed on the ground this season; the Dolphins allow 135.6 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  Miami will also be without their top lineman, Cameron Wake, which just makes things even worse.  The Dolphins’ secondary is also a mess; they’ve allowed 1,202 passing yards on 8.2 yards per pass attempt with a 9/2 touchdown/interception ratio over the last four games.     

Miami comes into this game off a fortunate 20-19 win in Philadelphia last week.  The Dolphins were out-yarded 436-289 in that game while coming back from a 16-3 deficit.  That game was preceded by back-to-back blowout losses which showed just how bad this Miami team can be.  Off the gift win, Miami will face a desperate Dallas team that will bring their best effort, especially since their quarterback is returning.  The Cowboys’ defense has been terrific on the road this season; they are giving up just 18.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Miami’s offense has underperformed while only averaging 21.2 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.5 points per game.  We expect a peak performance by Dallas, so we’ll back the Cowboys in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play COWBOYS (-).

New York comes into this game in desperate need of a win, so we know they’ll bring their best effort.  The Jets have lost three of their last four games, but two of the losses were close and the other is easily excusable.  New York lost at New England and out in Oakland the following week when quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick got hurt on the opening possession.  Their most recent loss came on a Thursday night when they couldn’t score from the 5-yard line with time winding down.  New York will be primed for a big effort in this game, especially since they have extra rest while facing a Texans team on short rest.  The Jets will have a big edge on the ground in this game, especially since Houston gives up 118 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  The Jets average 117 yards on the ground per game on 4.0 yards per rush, so the match-up is perfect for New York.  

Houston comes into this game off an outright win as 10-point underdogs in Cincinnati on Monday night.  The Texans went into that game off their bye, and they handed the Bengals their first loss of the season, and did so with their backup quarterback.  T.J. Yates came in when Brian Hoyer left with a concussion, and he played mistake-free football.  But in the starting role this week, Yates doesn’t figure to play as well, especially against a stout New York defense.  The Jets are only allowing 20.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  New York is the better team in a focused spot while catching Houston at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play JETS (-).