New Orleans started this season on fire as they were a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS after the first two weeks of play. But since then, the Hornets are just 3-3 SU and 0-5-1 ATS. Their fast start was attributed to their strong defensive play in which they held all eight of those opponents to less than 100 points. However, their defense is non-existent right now as they

The Lakers are 13-2 on the season, but they

Oregon is an explosive offensive team, but it appears opponents have maybe begun to figure out how to limit the Ducks

There is excellent line value with Toledo as a small home favorite today as they are the better team on both sides of the ball and my power ratings favor the Rockets by 8 points overall. Toledo is actually better with backup quarterback Terrance Owens in the game as the freshman has averaged 7.8 yards per pass attempt this season with an excellent 9/2 TD/INT ratio. Meanwhile, former starter Austin Dantin averaged just 6.5 ypp with a negative 7/8 TD/INT ratio before his shoulder injury on October 30th at Eastern Michigan.

Dantin was injured early in that game and Owens came in and played an excellent game with 234 passing yards (15.6 ypp) and 4 TD passes. Toledo struggled in the following game at Northern Illinois when Terrance Owens made his first start, but the Rockets bounced back with a solid 33-14 win last week at home against Bowling Green in which Owens threw for 225 yards (9.0 ypp) with a 2/1 TD/INT ratio.

Toledo should continue their momentum today in their final home game against an inferior Central Michigan squad. Toledo is a better offensive team with Owens at quarterback and the Rockets should have plenty of success against a weak Central Michigan defense that allows 5.5 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 5.2 yppl).

Toledo is a solid defensive team that allows just 5.3 yards per play (versus opponents that average 5.5 yppl) and the Rockets should have no problem limiting a below average CMU offense that averages just 5.4 yards per play and only 23.8 points per game this season (versus opponents that allow 5.6 yppl and 26.5 ppg). CMU has been particularly weak on the ground this season, averaging only 110 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow 165 yards and 4.5 ypr). The rushing discrepancy between these two squads has been even more extreme with home and road games this season as Toledo has out rushed their opponents 193-99 (4.9-3.3 ypr) at home, while Central Michigan has been out rushed 120-215 (3.6-5.1 ypr) on the road.

Play TOLEDO (-).

East Carolina is extremely fortunate to be a 6-5 SU team right now as they have been outplayed in the majority of their games this season and they have one of the worst defenses in the nation. The Pirates are allowing a ridiculous 43.3 points per game and 6.4 yards per play this season (versus opponents that average just 29.3 ppg and 5.7 yppl). The Pirates are equally bad against both the run and the pass, allowing 230 rushing yards and 5.3 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 4.4 ypr) and 251 passing yards and 7.9 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 7.4 ypp).

SMU should be able to exploit this awful ECU defense as the Mustangs are better than their 26.7 points per game indicates. SMU is averaging a solid 420 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.8 yppl) and the Mustangs average an excellent 5.2 yards per rush (versus opponents that allow just 4.5 ypr).

SMU is also a strong defensive team that permits just 26.2 points per game and only 5.0 yards per play (versus opponents that average 29.7 ppg and 5.7 yppl). The Mustangs can win the Conference USA West division with a victory today, so they will be completely focused. SMU has out gained each of their past seven opponents and 9 of the past 10 teams overall, while East Carolina has been out gained in 7 of their past 9 games and in 8 of their 11 games this season, so SMU presents excellent value in a basic straight-up win situation today.

Play SMU (-).

This game is part of the Maui Invitational out in Hawaii so neither team has the advantage of their home court. We played Connecticut last night in their 70-67 win over Michigan St and we

This game is being played at Madison Square Garden so neither team has the advantage of their home court. Both teams come in undefeated; UCLA is 3-0 and Villanova is 4-0. Neither team has faced much in the way of competition so tonight

Dallas is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, so getting the Mavericks plus a handful of points is something that cannot be passed up. Dallas is 9-4 on the season and three of their four losses have come by 5 points or less. The Mavericks are not allowing many teams to extend leads or winning margins on them because of their defense and we certainly expect another tight game that comes right down to the wire tonight in Oklahoma City.

The Thunder struggled early on as they opened the season at just 3-3. They are currently on a 5-game winning streak; they

After opening the season at just 1-6, the Bobcats have turned things around recently. Charlotte is 4-2 over their last six games with their two losses coming against Utah by a single point and against Miami by 8 points. Two of their four wins have also come on the road so it

This game is part of the Maui Invitational out in Hawaii so neither team has the advantage of their home court. The Big East conference has been tremendous in non-conference play so far as 9 of the 16 teams are unbeaten and the league owns a cumulative record of 50-10. Connecticut is one of those unbeaten teams at 3-0, and based on what the league has done against non-conference opponents, there

Orlando has been the forgotten team in the NBA so far this season. With their in-state rival Heat getting all of the attention, and the hot starts of New Orleans, San Antonio, and Boston, the Magic have become a second-tier commodity. The Magic are just going about their business quietly as they are currently 9-3 on the season. One of their losses was by 26 points to Miami in the second game of the season so maybe that game alone soured the thoughts of this Orlando team some. Whatever the reason, the Magic are undervalued right now, especially in tonight

These two teams come into today

It

Kentucky lost a world of talent from last year

Dallas may find it tough to get up for tonight

Boise St is ranked #3 in the BCS standings, so they still need to win their games by big margins if they want to get to the national championship game. The Broncos need to continue to impress the computers because it

Denver is catching Portland at the right time. The Blazers will be without Brandon Roy once again tonight as his knee still isn

This game will be played in New York City at Madison Square Garden for the 2K Sports Classic so neither team has the benefit of the home court tonight. The Big 10 is widely regarded as the best conference in college basketball this season, and Illinois takes a backseat to no team in terms of talent so the fact that they are a smallish favorite against Texas in this game is somewhat of a surprise.

The Illini are loaded this season and they

This is a big rivalry game between Bowling Green and Toledo as both teams are located on I-75 and the battle for the Peace Pipe is a big deal for these schools. Bowling Green has won the last three games in this series, but the Falcons had the superior team for those games. That is not the case this year as Toledo is 6-4 and vastly superior to Bowling Green who checks in at just 2-8 on the season. Toledo wants to win back the Peace Pipe in the worst way and they

Missouri St was a much improved team last season as the Bears went 24-12 after winning just 11 games in 2009. They return their top 7 scorers this season so Missouri St should match last year

San Diego St had a terrific season a year ago as the Aztecs went 25-9 and made an NCAA tournament appearance. This team should pick up right where they left off as they return all five starters from last year

The MAC East Division came down to these two teams last season, and it will once again this year as tonight

Memphis overachieved last season; the Tigers were not projected to do much yet they went 24-10. Much of Memphis

New England is in another difficult scheduling spot for this game tonight. The Patriots loss last week in Cleveland was not shocking as they were off three big games with this game in Pittsburgh on deck. And while that loss is somewhat forgivable, it doesn

You don

This is the second meeting of the season between these two; Tampa Bay won the first game in Carolina 20-7. But that final score is not a true representation of how close that game really was. Carolina actually out-gained Tampa Bay at the line of scrimmage, but their three turnovers handed the Bucs a fortunate win. The Panthers were also a 4-point favorite in that game so the fact that they are now getting a touchdown in the re-match presents some good value on them this afternoon.

Carolina is just 1-7 on the season, but the Panthers

This is the second game in two nights for both teams as they are playing in the BTI Invitational. Oregon is hosting the tournament so they do get the advantage of the home court, but that is about the only edge they

Clemson is an overrated team and before winning three of their last four games, the Tigers were on a 3-game losing streak that is more of an indication of the true team. Clemson was fortunate to beat Maryland last month and the 31-7 final score was extremely misleading as Clemson was out-gained 213-350 in total yards with only 13 first downs, but had a 3-0 turnover edge. Clemson then used a handful of big plays which gave them another phony win over Georgia Tech. After stopping Clemson on their first series, Tech was flagged for roughing the punter and two plays later Clemson broke off a 55-yard touchdown run. After Tech dropped a sure touchdown pass in the end zone that would have tied the game, Clemson once again capitalized and broke another long TD run, this time for 42 yards. And a few other plays like the above handed Clemson a gift of a win. They lost at Boston College two weeks ago, and beat NC State 14-13 last week despite being out-gained and only having 260 yards of total offense.

If Clemson isn

If you were take away the names on the jerseys, this line would be less than a touchdown as both teams enter with identical 7-2 SU records and one is ranked #18, while the other is ranked #12 in the nation. Alabama is laying nearly two touchdowns because they are the defending BCS champions, but their loss last week at LSU, 24-21, as a 7-point road favorite has eliminated any chances the Tide had at repeating as champions this season.

Alabama is likely to come in flat after that loss as it will be very difficult for the Tide to get excited for Mississippi State, especially after beating the Bulldogs 32-7 and 31-3 the past two seasons. Keep in mind, that Mississippi State did win both meetings in 2006 and 2007 outright and they are an improved team this season, so the Bulldogs should be able to keep this game much closer than the oddsmakers and public expect tonight.

The matchup is favorable for Miss State as they rely heavily on their ball-control, rushing offense that averages 220 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry (versus opponents that allow just 157 yards and 4.3 ypr). The Bulldogs run the ball on 68% of their offensive plays and it accounts for 57% of their total offensive yards and Miss State should have success against a mediocre Alabama run defense that has allowed 4.0 yards per carry this season (versus opponents that average 4.1 ypr). Alabama has an excellent pass defense, but their run defense has been exploited at times this season and it appears to be wearing down as the Tide allowed Tennessee to gain 159 rushing yards (5.3 ypr) and LSU to gain 225 rushing yards (5.0 ypr) in the past two games.

Mississippi State is a live underdog tonight and they edge in the rushing department should allow them to keep the game close throughout. Miss State also has an excellent defense that has allowed just 17.0 points per game and only 4.9 yards per play this season (versus opponents that average 29.4 ppg and 5.8 yppl). The Bulldogs lost by only 3 points versus Auburn and won outright at Florida as a 9

Texas Tech comes in off a home win over Missouri, but that win really wasn

Utah is in a very difficult scheduling spot for this game. The Utes were 8-0 going into their huge home game against TCU last week, but they were waxed in a 47-7 loss. That blowout loss took everything out of Utah, and it

Philadelphia has been very competitive all year; all six of their losses have been by 10 points or less which would make them 7-1 ATS to tonight

This is a huge game for Wofford. Three of their best players will be going back home to Minnesota and playing their first collegiate game in front of their family and friends. Jamar Diggs, Cameron Rundles, and Noah Dahlman were all big-time high school players in Minnesota so tonight

Seton Hall returns a ton of talent and experience this season. The Pirates have their top four scorers back from a team that won 19 games last season and they should be even better this year, especially with their new coach Kevin Willard who comes over from Iona. Willard is a huge upgrade from former coach Bobby Gonzalez and he will get the most out of this Seton Hall team.

Gonzalez was not well liked around the program, and when asked about how the team has united around Willard, the new coach said:

Western Kentucky is a team loaded with big-game experience; the Hilltoppers won 21 games last year and they went deep in the NCAA tournament the previous season. This team also has a ton of depth, and they

The last time Connecticut played, everybody saw the Huskies beat West Virginia 16-13 on a Friday night on ESPN. Most will remember that win and seeing that the Huskies are a home underdog once again tonight, they will be eager to play Connecticut in this spot. However, that win over West Virginia was as phony as they come as the Huskies were out-gained by 136 yards (414-278) and only won because they benefited from 4 turnovers. It was the third consecutive game in which Connecticut was out-played by their opponent, and since they are facing a talented and strong defensive team in Pittsburgh tonight, we expect the Huskies to struggle at the line of scrimmage once again in this game.

Pittsburgh has been terrific on the defensive side of the ball all season. They

There

On the surface, neither team appears to be any good; Houston is just 1-5 and Washington is just 1-4. However, when you dig a bit deeper, the Rockets record is excusable because they

Both teams come into tonight

This will be the third straight road game for Pittsburgh, and usually that is not a good scheduling spot. But the Steelers did not have to travel all that far to get to Cincinnati so they will not be road weary as most teams usually are in this scheduling situation. Plus the Steelers are off a loss in their last game at New Orleans so they

Dallas comes into tonight

Both teams have had some extra rest to get ready for tonight

These two teams have been a world apart so far this season. New Orleans comes into tonight

Neither team has done anything impressive on the football field yet this season, so the fact that tonight

Portland comes into tonight

We had a big play on the Texans back in Week 1 as we anticipated Houston to be fully geared-up for that game because the Colts were a team they had little success against in the past. Houston has a real chance to knock Indianapolis from their perch atop the AFC South this year, and they knew that coming into the season. The Texans did not disappoint in the opening game as they dominated the Colts in that game and won 34-24, a game in which the final score makes the game look a lot closer than it actually was.

Houston gashed the Colts defense for 257 rushing yards in that game behind running back Arian Foster. Overall, the Texans gained 6.1 yards per rush which was somewhat of a shock considering Houston has a potent passing game with quarterback Matt Schaub and wide receiver Andre Johnson. Now we

If you look at this game from a big picture perspective, it

Tennessee comes in at 5-2 but they have upside down statistics; the Titans are being out-gained on the season. They gain just 302 yards of offense per game yet their defense allows 329 yards per game. Tennessee is averaging 28 points per game on offense, but the yardage gained does not correlate to that many points. With numbers like that, the Titans have clearly been on the receiving end of a lot of good fortune; their opponents have turned the ball over 11 times in their last three games giving them a +8 turnover margin. And most of those turnovers have been turned into points for Tennessee, but in games in which they haven

This is a difficult scheduling spot for Idaho as the Vandals will be playing in their fourth road game over the last five games. And in fact, this will be their fifth road game in their last seven games which certainly has to have them road weary from all of the traveling they

There

Auburn has been highly impressive this season; the Tigers are currently the #1 ranked team in the BCS standings. They are a perfect 8-0 and their offense is firing on all cylinders. Quarterback Cam Newton is definitely the Heisman front-runner as he has been superb for Auburn this season. However, despite all of their superlatives, this will be an extremely difficult game for Auburn to win and cover by more than a touchdown, especially against a Mississippi team that is led by a coach that knows how to crank his team up for a big game.

Houston Nutt is a big-game coach. The guy simply knows how to get his team ready for the best, and he somehow gets his team to fire their best effort in these games. From his days at Arkansas to his current team in Mississippi, Nutt has won many of these high-profile games, and most of those wins have come with inferior teams. The Rebels sit at 3-4 coming into this game, but their early season turnover troubles seem to be behind them. They were working quarterback Jeremiah Masoli into a new system, and it cost the Rebels as they lost two of their first three games after turning the ball over 7 times in those games. Since then, the Rebels only have 5 giveaways in their last four games and it

This game has huge implications on the Conference-USA title as the winner will have a stranglehold on winning the league's East Division. East Carolina is 5-2 overall and 4-0 in conference play while Central Florida is also 5-2 overall and 3-0 in conference play. However, that

Clemson is an overrated team and before winning their last two games, the Tigers were on a 3-game losing streak that is more of an indication of the true team. Clemson was fortunate to beat Maryland two weeks ago and the 31-7 final score was extremely misleading as Clemson was outgained 213-350 in total yards with only 13 first downs, but had a 3-0 turnover edge. Last week Clemson used a handful of big plays which gave them the win over Georgia Tech. After stopping Clemson on their first series, Tech was flagged for roughing the punter and two plays later Clemson broke off a 55-yard touchdown run. After Tech dropped a sure touchdown pass in the end zone that would have tied the game, Clemson once again capitalized and broke another long TD run, this time for 42 yards. And a few other plays like the above handed Clemson a gift of a win.

On the surface, Clemson

Both of these teams looked horrible in their season openers. Phoenix got rocked at Portland by 14 points (106-92) while the Jazz were embarrassed in Denver last night by 22 points (110-88). However, we see only one of those results as legitimate while we

This is a huge game in the ACC as the winner has the inside track to represent the Atlantic Division in the championship game in Charlotte. Florida St is 6-1 overall and 4-0 in the conference while NC State is 5-2 overall and 2-1 in the conference. These two teams should have either identical records or NC State should still be undefeated; the Wolfpack blew a double digit lead at home to Virginia Tech and they lost an overtime game last week at East Carolina. There

Houston will be a much improved team this season. The Rockets went just 42-40 last year, but they played without their big man, Yao Ming. However, he

Despite being ranked #3 in the country, Boise St still needs to win their games by big margins. The Broncos need to continue to impress the computers because it

This is a huge game tonight for both teams. The New York Giants come into this game at 4-2 but this will be their first divisional game of the year. And divisional games are most important so the Giants need this game despite coming in with a good winning record already. Dallas

Both teams came into 2010 with big expectations as they both made deep playoff runs a season ago. But neither the Vikings nor Packers have come anywhere close to their pre-season hype as of yet. The Vikings come into tonight

This is the most interesting game on the NFL card this week. New England comes in at 4-1 but they have upside down statistics; the Patriots are being out-gained on the season. They gain just 354 yards of offense per game yet their defense allows 383 yards per game. New England averages 5.8 yards per play on offense while their defense allows 5.9 yards per play. With numbers like that, the Patriots do not deserve to a have a winning record, let alone just one loss on the season.

San Diego comes in at just 2-4 but their seasonal statistics are the best in the league. The Chargers have the top-rated offensive and defensive units as their offense averages 433 yards per game on 6.8 yards per play while their defense allows just 254 yards per game on 4.6 yards per play. If you made a line on this game based solely on the stats, the Chargers should be a touchdown favorite or even higher in this game. But with the records and the names on the jerseys, they are laying less than a field-goal at home which presents a ton of value.

New England isn

If you look at this game from a big picture perspective, it

This is the biggest game of the week as #1 Oklahoma plays at #11 Missouri. Both teams are undefeated at 6-0, but we just think there is a world of difference between these two teams. Oklahoma is just the superior team in every facet of the game, and we certainly expect the Sooners to show that on the field tonight. When Missouri was a legitimate top 10 team a couple of years ago, they couldn

Coming into 2010, Georgia was supposed to be a much-improved team from their 8-5 campaign in 2009. And the Bulldogs looked well on their way after opening their season with a 55-7 blowout win over Louisiana Lafayette. But Georgia hit the skids after that big win and lost their next four games to sit at just 1-4; three of those losses also came against SEC opponents. However, Georgia had a valid excuse for those losses because they were playing without their best player, wide receiver A.J. Green. They just couldn

These two teams appear headed in opposite directions. South Florida was 3-1 after their first four games of the season, but the Bulls have lost their last two games and sit at 3-3. Cincinnati began their season at just 1-3, but the Bearcats have won their last two games to also sit at 3-3. South Florida also played a much weaker schedule to get their three wins (Stony Brook, W Kentucky, and Fla. Atlantic) while Cincinnati played tougher opponents (Fresno St, NC State, and Oklahoma) to get their three losses. So despite the same 3-3 records, Cincinnati is simply the much better team than South Florida coming into this game.

South Florida has been abysmal in their two conference games, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The Bulls have lost those two games by a combined score of 33-15 after their offense failed to score a touchdown in either game. They

Oregon is the newly crowned #1 team in the nation, but having that distinction hasn

Nevada has been super all season long. The Wolf Pack is undefeated at 6-0 as their offense has been one of the best units in the country this year. They average 43 points and a whopping 545 yards of offense per game. They are extremely well-balanced as they gain over 310 rushing yards and 230 passing yards per game. Those numbers are simply incredible, but maintaining them throughout the season is one tough task. And we

San Diego State is coming off an upset loss at BYU last week, but that result has now created solid line value as the Aztecs are now a home underdog. There was nothing phony about that loss for San Diego State as they were out-yarded by 140 yards (413-273) after BYU played their best game of the season. The Aztecs thought they could just show up for that game and win since they just waxed the same Utah State team 41-7 that BYU had just lost to by 15 points. That BYU loss was also a nationally televised game on Friday night and the SDSU players were surely watching during their bye week and probably entered last week

Mississippi St has been quietly playing some great football this season. The Bulldogs are in their second year under head coach Dan Mullen, and they

Southern Cal has been a very unpredictable team this season and it is understandable since the Trojans basically have nothing to play for this year after being banned from postseason play earlier this summer due to the Reggie Bush violations from six years ago.

USC has struggled as a favorite this season, but they did play well as a big underdog last week and covered the +10 point spread at Stanford. In fact, the underdog is now 5-1 ATS this season in all USC games. Last week was a good spot for USC and we used them as a Best Bet at Stanford due to the adjusted line value and the fact Stanford was in a potential letdown spot after their loss at Oregon. Teams often struggle as a favorite after a close loss and USC is now the team that faces a flat spot this week after back-to-back close losses versus Washington (31-32) and Stanford (35-37) the past two weeks.

The fact that USC has nothing to play for this season makes a letdown even more likely after two hard fought, close losses. The matchup is favorable for California this week as they are the better team overall and getting points in this game. The Golden Bears have a huge revenge motive after being held to just 3 points in each of the past two meetings, but this is unlikely to occur again this year against a USC defense that is much weaker.

The Trojans are allowing 26 points per game and 6.2 yards per play (versus opponents that average just 6.1 yppl). USC has been mediocre against both the run and pass (4.3 ypr and 7.8 ypp), so California

NC State

Missouri is in an unusual scheduling situation for this game. We

There was a lot of negativity surrounding the South Florida program after former head coach Jim Leavitt was released because of player abuse accusations. Leavitt