Tampa Bay and Atlanta both come in off losses last week, so we can expect a good effort from both teams.  The Buccaneers are 0-2 on the season despite being a home favorite in both games.  Tampa Bay closed as 5.5-point favorites over Carolina in the season opener, and last week the Bucs closed as 4-point favorites over St. Louis.  The Bucs played in two competitive games as a total of 8 points decided those games.  Now Tampa Bay hits the road for a divisional game, and they are catching 6 points.  That number is certainly inflated because the oddsmakers know the public is going to back the high-scoring Falcons in this game.  New Tampa Bay head coach Lovie Smith is a defensive-minded coach, and even though the Bucs are dealing with some injury issues to their stop unit, we expect Tampa Bay to contain Atlanta’s passing game.  The Bucs have a strong running game, and since Atlanta has a poor defense, playing ball control and shortening the game will be Tampa Bay’s way of keeping the Falcons’ offense off the field.   

Atlanta got crushed last week in Cincinnati; the Falcons lost 24-10.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Bengals in that game, and we have no hesitation in playing against the Falcons once again, especially since they are laying points in this game.  Atlanta’s defense has been awful, allowing a league-high 944 yards in two games.  The Falcons’ rush defense is extremely poor, allowing 283 rushing yards on 4.2 yards per rush and 5 touchdowns on the ground so far.  Tampa Bay’s strength is running the ball, and the Bucs will hold a big edge in the trenches in this game.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Tampa Bay on Thursday night.

9* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Auburn has played fantastic football under head coach Gus Malzahn.  In his two years, the Tigers are 14-2 with their losses coming in the National Championship game to Florida State and at LSU; the Tigers were double digit underdogs in both games.  Malzahn is one of the best coaches in college football, and it’s tough to go against his teams.  However, this is an extremely difficult spot for Auburn, and the line is simply inflated.  My power ratings only make Auburn a 3-point favorite in this game, so there’s some tremendous value on Kansas State, especially at +7 or more.  Auburn has played two home games thus far, and against the one decent team they faced (Arkansas), the game was tied in the third quarter before Auburn pulled away late.  The Tigers closed as 17-point favorites in that game after a flood of money came in against Auburn, so for them to somewhat struggle at home is not a good sign, especially since they are laying points in their first road game against a good out of conference opponent.

Kansas State is also 2-0 on the season with a home win over FCS Stephen F. Austin and a road win at Iowa State.  The Wildcats come into this game off a 12-day break (Auburn does as well), but we actually give a big edge to Kansas State in this scheduling situation.  Head coach Bill Snyder is a master game planner with extra time, and his teams are always ready when playing as a home underdog.  In fact, Kansas State is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog since Snyder returned in 2009, winning six of those games SU.  Overall, Snyder has won SU 13 times as an underdog since returning, and tonight’s game provides an excellent chance at adding to that number.  Insiders are sure that Kansas State played vanilla offense in their first two games with Snyder’s eye on this Auburn game.  They believe Snyder will unleash the Wildcats in this game as this game is their entire season.  We respect Auburn and Malzahn immensely, but the points and situation are too good to pass up, so we’ll take Kansas State on Thursday night.  

9* Play KANSAS STATE (+).

Pittsburgh will host Boston for a 3-game series beginning on Tuesday night.  Charlie Morton will get the start for the Pirates.  Morton is making his first start since coming back from a sports hernia.  Morton is 5-12 with a poor 4.05 ERA in 25 starts for Pittsburgh this season.  Prior to his injury, Morton was in terrible form as he earned an awful 6.60 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in his last three starts.  Boston is in good current form.  The Red Sox have won three of their last four games, and they’ve scored 4 runs or more in four of their last five games. 

Boston’s Anthony Ranaudo will make his sixth start of the season.  Ranaudo will face a Pittsburgh team that is only hitting .258 against right-handed starters this season.  The Pirates are just 8-9 in interleague play this season, so they shouldn’t be a big favorite in this game.  Boston’s bullpen is strong, especially on the road where they own a 3.11 ERA on the season.  There’s some good value in taking Boston on the run line in this game on Tuesday night. 

10* Play RED SOX (+1.5 runline).

Chicago unexpectedly lost 23-20 in overtime at home as 7-point favorites to Buffalo last week.  The Bears came out flat in that game, and they were playing catch-up for the majority of the game.  But with a game under their belts, we expect a much better effort from the Bears in this game, especially since they are off a loss and playing a spotlight game on Sunday night.  We expect Chicago to be fighting for a playoff spot later this season, so they certainly have the talent to hang with San Francisco.  Despite losing, the Bears’ offense put up tremendous numbers as they gained 427 yards while QB Jay Cutler completed 34 of his 49 passes for 349 yards.  Chicago’s potent offense will face a depleted 49ers’ defense, so we expect the Bears to move the ball consistently in this game.

San Francisco is off a misleading 28-17 win over Dallas last week.  The 49ers were handed that win thanks to four Dallas turnovers.  San Francisco only had 316 yards of total offense while giving up 382 yards of total offense to the Cowboys.  The 49ers’ defense escaped a bad outing in part to the ineptitude of the Dallas offense, but they won’t get any breaks in this game against Chicago.  The 49ers are without their three best defenders as Navorro Bowman (knee), Glenn Dorsey (biceps), and Aldon Smith (suspension) leave San Francisco’s top stop unit a shell of itself.  Both San Francisco cornerbacks also suffered injuries last week, so the 49ers’ defense is quite vulnerable in this game.  We’ll take the generous points with the Bears on Sunday night.

9* Play BEARS (+).

Miami and Buffalo both come into this game off upset wins as underdogs last week.  The Dolphins beat New England 33-20 as 3.5-point home underdogs while the Bills beat Chicago 23-20 in overtime as 7-point road underdogs.  Miami’s win over the Patriots was much bigger since that was a division game.  They are now in a bad situational spot, especially since they are on the road.  The Dolphins always put their best efforts into the New England games, so there’s reason to expect regression in this game against the Bills.  The Dolphins trailed 20-10 at the half, so they had to exert a lot of energy in that come back win.      

Buffalo showed a lot of grit in their comeback win in Chicago last Sunday.  The Bills blew a lead early and a lead late, before gutting out the win in overtime.  That win is a big confidence booster, especially since the Bills will play this game on their home field.  Buffalo ran the ball extremely well last week as they had 193 yards on 33 rushes.  That bodes well for this game considering Miami allowed the Patriots to average 4.4 yards per rush last week.  Miami also beat New England last season, and the following week the Dolphins played in Buffalo and lost 19-0.  We expect another flat game from Miami, so we’ll take Buffalo in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play BILLS (-).

NOTE:  The Giants have moved from +2 to Pick/-1 this morning.  New York would still be a 3% play at the current line of Pick/-1.

Arizona is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in New York against the Giants.  The Cardinals played at home on Monday night, and they were fortunate in beating San Diego 18-17 after scoring a touchdown with just over 2 minutes left in the game.  Now the Cardinals must wheel back on a short week and travel to the opposite coast and play an early start game.  Arizona is also playing with a shorthanded defense, so it makes no sense that the Cardinals are favored in this game.

New York also played last Monday night, but the Giants were noncompetitive in their 35-14 loss in Detroit.  The Giants expended very little energy in that game, and with a return home off an ugly spotlight loss, we expect a much improved effort in this game.  New York’s defense is better than what they showed in their season opener, and since they will be playing a fatigued Arizona offense, the Giants will be able to limit the Cardinals’ offensive production.  New York’s offense also has to play better, and they have no excuses in this game against the limited Arizona defense.  If these two teams played last week, New York would have been a 2-point home favorite.  But after last week’s results, there has been an overreaction which has created value in the pointspread.  We’ll take the value with the Giants at home in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play GIANTS (+).

New Orleans and Cleveland both lost their season openers, and of the two, we expect the Saints to bounce back with a strong performance.  New Orleans lost in overtime in a high-scoring shootout with the Falcons.  There’s no shame in losing that game in Atlanta, and we’ll just disregard the statistical numbers against the Saints.  New Orleans is taking a major step-down in class for this game, and their talent simply over-matches anything Cleveland puts on the field.  The Saints’ defense will play much better in this game as they’ll be facing skill players from the Browns that rank dead last in the NFL based upon fantasy football grading guidelines. 

Cleveland played way over their heads last week in Pittsburgh.  The Browns were getting crushed at the half; they were down 27-3.  But the Browns exploded in the second half while out-scoring the Steelers 24-3.  Cleveland tied the game early in the fourth quarter before giving up the winning field goal as time expired.  Off that high-scoring loss against one of their divisional rivals, we expect major regression from Cleveland, especially since they are a poor team void of much talent.  The Browns will not be able to trade points with the potent New Orleans offense, so we’ll lay the points with the Saints in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play SAINTS (-).

Atlanta opened their season with a big home win over their divisional rivals last Sunday.  The Falcons beat the Saints 37-34 in overtime after racking up 568 yards of total offense.  That was a huge offensive performance by the Falcons, and it was a major “statement” game for Atlanta after going 4-12 last season.  Off that big win, Atlanta must take to the road and play an out of conference game against a strong Cincinnati team playing their home opener.  The Falcons’ offense will face a stiff challenge in this game against a stout Bengals’ defense that completely shut down Baltimore last week.  Atlanta’s defense was torched by the Saints for 472 yards last week, and we expect the Bengals to put-up similar numbers in this game. 

Cincinnati was quite impressive in their 23-16 win in Baltimore last week.  The Bengals controlled that game from the outset, and they handed the Ravens their first home September loss  under head coach John Harbaugh.  Cincinnati was flattered on Thursday night when Baltimore came back and beat Pittsburgh 26-6.  The Bengals’ offense is in much better hands this season under offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, and that was evident last week.  QB Andy Dalton will have a big season, and we expect him to put-up some big numbers on the poor Atlanta defense.  Cincinnati is simply the much better team, and since they are catching Atlanta off their best performance, we’ll lay the points with the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play BENGALS (-).

USC has won two Best Bet selections for us so far this season, and there’s no reason for us to stop backing the Trojans.  They crushed Fresno State 52-13 in their season opener, and last week they beat Stanford 13-10.  Many may think this is a letdown spot for USC off the Stanford win, but we see it the opposite way.  The Trojans are on a mission this season after the mess they’ve been thru over the last few seasons.  USC is not going to take any game lightly as they need to impress to get back on the national radar.  USC is a more unified group without Lane Kiffin as their head coach.  Current head coach Steve Sarkisian is well liked by his players, and the team goes all out for him.  Quarterback Cody Kessler has played tremendous, completing 67.8% (40-59) of his passes with 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Kessler’s numbers will be much improved this year under the guidance of Sarkisian, and we expect him to have a big game on Saturday night.

Boston College is in rebuilding mode with just 9 returning starters this season.  The Eagles had 17 returning starters last season, and they went just 7-6 on the year.  Boston College is void of major talent right now, and they are totally out-classed in this game versus USC.  The Eagles had a much better team last year, but they were non-competitive in a 35-7 loss at USC.  Boston College is taking a monumental step-up in competition this week after facing a putrid Massachusetts team in their season opener and an okay Pittsburgh team last week.  This is an important game for USC, especially since they have a bye next week.  Lay the points with USC on Saturday night.

9* Play USC (-).

This has been a lopsided series with Florida winning 27 straight games over Kentucky.  That streak is going to continue this year, and the Gators are going to roll up a big number on the Wildcats.  Florida crushed Eastern Michigan 65-0 last week, and they showed that their offense has improved greatly from last season’s debacle.  The Gators only averaged 18.8 points per game in 2013, but much of that can be attributed to injuries as they just decimated the whole Florida team.  In their 65-point win last week, the Gators gained 655 yards of total offense.  Despite Florida’s poor offense last year, they stilled rolled up 402 yards on Kentucky’s home field.  With a healthy team now, the Gators will go up and down the field on the Wildcats in this game.

Kentucky comes into this game at 2-0, but those two wins came at home over FCS UT-Martin and Ohio from the MAC conference.  The Wildcats are taking a major step-up in class here against the Gators, and we don’t expect them to be too competitive.  Kentucky’s Over/Under season wins total was just 3.5 this season, so after a 2-0 start, their losses are going to start adding up.  Kentucky installed their new Air-Raid offense under head coach Mark Stoops last season, but the Wildcats were highly inconsistent last week when they scored just 20 points against Ohio.  The Gators have a very stout defense, and it’s hard to envision Kentucky scoring enough points to stay close, especially since Florida has held them to a total of 7 points over the last two meetings.  This game will be a one-sided blowout, so we’ll lay the points with Florida on Saturday night. 

9* Play FLORIDA (-).

Kansas City is floundering at the worst possible time as they host the Red Sox on Saturday night.  The Royals have lost four of their last five games, and five of their last seven games overall.  Kansas City will start Jeremy Guthrie in this game.  Guthrie is 3-8 with a poor 5.14 ERA and an awful 1.70 WHIP in 20 career starts against the Red Sox.  He has allowed 9 runs and 19 hits in his last two starts against Boston.  The Red Sox are in good current form as they’ve scored 4 runs or more in their last three games, and they seem to enjoy playing the spoiler role as the season wears down. 

Boston’s Rubby De La Rosa beat the Royals at home back on July 19th after giving up just 1 run and five hits in seven innings of work.  The Royals’ offense has been awful as of late, and we expect De La Rosa to shut them down in this game.  Kansas City has scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games.  Boston has won the first two games of this series, and it seems like Kansas City is wilting under the pressure of the playoff chase.  There’s some good value in taking Boston on the run line in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play RED SOX (+1.5 runline).

Mississippi came thru for us with an easy Best Bet winner over Vanderbilt last week, and we’ll come right back with the Rebels this week.  Mississippi won that game 41-3 after racking up 547 yards of total offense.  Mississippi is a loaded team that includes 15 starters from last year’s 8-5 team that had to face Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in three consecutive weeks.  Head coach Hugh Freeze is in his third season in Oxford, and his teams always improve as the years go on.  The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and their defense has been outstanding so far this season.  Mississippi has allowed 16 total points in their two games, and they will limit the Ragin’ Cajuns’ offensive production in this game. 

Louisiana Lafayette will be a good team in the Sun Belt conference this season, but they are simply out-classed in this game versus Mississippi.  The Ragin’ Cajuns have shown no ability to step-up in class on the road in recent years.  They lost 34-14 at a terrible Arkansas team last season, and they got waxed 65-24 at Oklahoma State the season before.  The Ragin’ Cajuns have no chance to match points with the potent Mississippi offense, especially after their defense gave up 48 points on 533 yards of offense to Louisiana Tech on their home field last week.  We’ll lay the points with Mississippi in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play MISSISSIPPI (-).

This heated rivalry has been a close series over the last few years.  In fact, nine of the last ten meetings have been decided by 3 points or less.  Based on that trend, taking the points with Pittsburgh as an underdog may be luring.  However, the Steelers are a shell of their former teams, especially their defense.  In their home game last week against a talent-less Cleveland offense, the Steelers’ defense gave up 27 points on 389 yards of total offense.  Pittsburgh was gashed on the ground as the Browns ran for 183 yards while averaging a whopping 6.1 yards per rush.  The Steelers must now take to the road on a short week and face a hungry Baltimore team off a home loss in their season opener and playing once again on their strong home field.  Pittsburgh has had no time to fix their poor defense, so we can expect a repeat of last week’s terrible performance.  

Baltimore did not play good at all last week.  The Ravens trailed the Bengals 15-0 at one point before taking a brief lead and giving it right back just four plays later.  That home loss by the Ravens was their first in September under head coach John Harbaugh, and since they played so poorly, we can expect a much better effort tonight.  The Ravens are also in a better position to fix their problems because they’ve been at home since the end of preseason.  Baltimore is dealing with the distraction of the Ray Rice situation, but the best way for them to escape that is to play a football game.  The Ravens may prove to be the much better team at season’s end, so laying less than a field goal holds some value in this game on Thursday night.   

10* Play RAVENS (-).

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will play Game 2 of their 4-game series on Tuesday night.  David Buchanan has been a solid pitcher for the Phillies this season.  He has allowed just 4 earned runs in his last three starts while earning a solid 2.40 ERA in those games.  Buchanan gave up 3 runs and six hits to the Pirates back on July 5th.  That game was in Pittsburgh, but the Pirates are not the same team on the road where they are just 31-40 on the season.  The Phillies' bullpen is greatly improved, especially at home where they own a 3.25 ERA and 1.14 WHIP on the season.  

Pittsburgh’s Edinson Volquez is an inconsistent pitcher, especially on the road where he only has four wins from 12 starts this season.  Volquez has control issues with 25 walks in 73.7 innings of work on the road.  Philadelphia is playing good baseball right now with an offense that has finally played up to their potential; they’ve averaged 4.9 runs per game over their last seven games.  There’s some good value in taking Philadelphia on the run line in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play PHILLIES (+1.5 runline).

Indianapolis had another phony season in 2013.  The Colts were out-played on the field, yet they went 11-5 and won a playoff game.  Indianapolis is coming into this season off back-to-back fortunate years, and regression has to set in soon, and we expect it to start in this game against the Broncos.  Seven of the Colts’ wins last season came by single digits, including their 39-33 home win over Denver last October.  Indianapolis was out-yarded 429-334 in that game, and that was a common occurrence last year.  The Colts’ defense was good against the bad teams and awful against the good teams, and we fully expect the Broncos’ offense to score a lot of points in this game.

Denver has some motivation to play extremely well in this game.  Aside from this game being the season opener, the Broncos were humiliated in the Super Bowl and they are also playing with revenge.  This is an important game for Peyton Manning against his former franchise, especially since he lost in his initial return to Indianapolis.  Manning and the Broncos’ offense will move the ball at will, especially since the Colts’ defense will be without their best defender Robert Mathis (suspension) and their free safety Delano Howell (neck).  Denver’s secondary was atrocious last season, but they addressed that need with the signings of Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward.  Denver’s defensive line is projected to be strong, and they will apply pressure on QB Andrew Luck, especially since the Colts will start A.Q. Shipley at center after claiming him off waivers last Sunday.  Denver is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Sunday night. 

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

Oakland is in a very difficult situational and scheduling spot for this game in New York.  The Raiders had to travel cross country for their season opener, and they must play this game early on their body clocks.  The players’ bodies are not used to this, especially since all of their preseason games this year came at night.  Oakland will also be playing with a rookie quarterback, Derek Carr, who is making his first NFL start on the road.  Carr’s task will not be easy, especially against the aggressive and blitz-heavy defense of the Jets.  Carr faced pressure on just 8 of his 47 pass attempts during the preseason, so he’ll be unprepared for what Rex Ryan and the Jets’ defense is going to throw at him.  Oakland’s offensive line was a mess in preseason, and they are still trying to find a viable unit and slot them in the right positions.  The Raiders’ offense will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.  

The New York Jets will be much better than expected this season.  Most assumed Rex Ryan was gone after last season, but he was retained to the applause of his players who love playing for him.  The Jets’ situation this season is quite positive, and the team has built great chemistry.  “We’re way, way closer than last year,” Willie Colon said.  “Our stock as a team and family is going up.”  Quarterback Geno Smith was productive in the preseason as he completed 69.7% of his passes while playing healthy.  The Jets now have a home run threat in the backfield with the addition of Chris Johnson.  The ability to run the ball consistently will open things up downfield for the Jets, and they will attack the old and weak Oakland secondary.  The Jets are simply the superior team in an advantageous spot, so we’ll lay the points with them in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

10* Play JETS (-).

UCLA did not play up to their hype last week in Virginia.  The Bruins escaped with a 28-20 win as their offense played really bad.  However, we’re willing to forgive that effort and the results for a couple of reasons.  First and foremost, UCLA was playing a rare game on the East Coast and it started at 12:00 pm ET.  The Bruins’ players were out of their element, and an early start in their first game of the season was a big disadvantage.  Second, the Bruins were playing a very good Virginia defense that had all summer to prepare.  UCLA was simply in a terrible situation to play up to their abilities last week, but that all changes in this game.  UCLA is at home and facing an inferior opponent, so we fully expect to see the “real” Bruins in this game.  

Memphis got their season off to a big start in their 63-0 waxing of FCS Austin Peay last week.  However, the Tigers are stepping way up in class here, and they’ll be facing one of the best teams in college football on the road off a poor performance.  Memphis may have a good season with 17 returning starters, but they are hopelessly out-classed in this game versus UCLA.  The 63 points scored by the Tigers last week was an aberration.  In their previous 60 games, the most points Memphis scored were 42, and they only eclipsed the 40-point mark in two of those sixty games.  The Tigers will regress sharply off their win, and since we expect UCLA to play much better, this game will be a one-sided blowout.  

10* Play UCLA (-).

Mississippi did not play their best football last week in their 35-13 win over Boise State.  But with that game under their belts, we expect a much sharper team, especially since this is their SEC opener.  Mississippi is a loaded team that includes 15 starters from last year’s 8-5 team that had to face Alabama, Auburn, and Texas A&M in three consecutive weeks.  Head coach Hugh Freeze is in his third season in Oxford, and his teams always improve as the years go on.  The Rebels have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and despite their sluggish play last Thursday, Mississippi still rolled up 458 yards of offense.  The Rebels’ offense will explode this week, especially since they’ll be facing a Vanderbilt team that gave up 37 points to Temple last Thursday night.   

Vanderbilt figured to regress sharply this season after losing head coach James Franklin to Penn State.  Not only did they lose Franklin, but Vanderbilt also lost 11 starters, including five all-conference players.  The Commodores overachieved under Franklin as they won 18 games over the last two seasons, and if their season opener is any indication, Vanderbilt is in for a long season.  They lost at home by 30 points to Temple after getting out-yarded 351-278.  Vanderbilt did not score an offensive touchdown as their lone points came on a 13-yard fumble recovery.  The Commodores have no chance to match points with the potent Mississippi offense, so we expect another blowout loss for Vanderbilt in this game.  Lay the points with the Rebels on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (-).

USC crushed Fresno State 52-13 last week, winning us a Best Bet selection.  We’re going to come right back with the Trojans this week as they still hold some pointspread value.  USC is a much better team than they were last season, and they are a more unified group without Lane Kiffin as their head coach.  Current head coach Steve Sarkisian is well liked by his players, and that was evident last week when they came together after the bogus racist allegations were raised about Sarkisian.  USC racked up 37 first downs on 701 yards of total offense last week.  Quarterback Cody Kessler played tremendous as he completed 67.6% (25-37) of his passes with 4 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Kessler’s numbers will be much improved this year under the guidance of Sarkisian, and last week’s performance was certainly an indicator.

Stanford also won impressively last week as they rolled to a 45-0 victory.  However, that was against FCS UC-Davis.  They are taking a monumental step-up in competition this week.  Stanford has been terrific over the last few seasons; they’ve won 11 games or more in four straight years.  But the Cardinal return just 12 starters this season, and it’s hard to see them repeating their recent success.  Stanford had a tremendous team last season, but they lost 20-17 at USC as 3.5-point favorites.  They were a significantly better team than USC last year, so the fact that they lost that game does not bode well for this game, especially since USC is much improved.  This is an important game for USC as they attempt to regain their superiority in the state of California.  We’ll take the points with the better team in this game on Saturday afternoon.    

9* Play USC (+).

Green Bay and Seattle will begin the 2014 NFL regular season on Thursday night.  The Packers will be a good team this season, but they face a brutal matchup in this game.  Green Bay has to open their season on the road in the toughest stadium, and they will do so with an inexperienced center.  Rookie center Corey Linsley will get the start after Green Bay lost their starter to injury.  Linsley has yet to snap a ball to quarterback Aaron Rodgers in a game, and that will be a major issue in this game, especially considering the extreme crowd noise teams face in Seattle.  The Packers’ defense was also bad last season when they gave up 27 points or more in ten games.  Green Bay did not address those issues, so we can expect the Packers’ defense to play poorly tonight, especially against a Seattle offense that should be one of the best in the NFL this season.

Seattle cruised to a Super Bowl win last season, and there’s no reason they won’t sustain a high level of performance for the next few years.  There are no holes in this Seattle team, and they could actually be better than they were last season.  The Seahawks’ offense was on a mission during the preseason, and quarterback Russell Wilson played lights out.  Wilson completed 78.6% (33-42) of his passes while taking the second-most QB snaps of all quarterbacks in the preseason.  That indicates that Seattle is planning to unleash Wilson this season rather than making him a game manager like the last couple of years.  Seattle’s entire offense is fully healthy, and they simply have too much firepower for the Green Bay defense.  We’ll lay the points with Seattle in this game on Thursday night.        

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

Cleveland will host Detroit on Thursday night.  Max Scherzer is not in good current form for the Tigers.  Scherzer has allowed 13 runs and 20 hits in his last three starts which all came on the road.  Scherzer earned an ugly 5.78 ERA in those three starts.  He has had his problems with the Indians who are hitting .308 against him this season.  Cleveland is averaging 4.5 runs per game against right-handed starters this season, and they are doing enough to stay in the AL Central playoff race.  The Tigers’ bullpen has been poor all season, so they’ll provide Scherzer with little support on the backend.

The Indians’ Trevor Bauer is 4-2 with a solid 3.07 ERA at home this season.  Bauer is in tremendous current form; he has not allowed an earned run in two straight starts.  Bauer is backed by a very good Cleveland bullpen, especially at home where they own a 3.00 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the season.  Cleveland is 7-3 over their last ten games, and there’s some good value in taking the Indians on the run line in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play INDIANS (+1.5 runline).

Philadelphia can pick up a series sweep of the Braves in Atlanta on Wednesday afternoon.  David Buchanan has a strong 1.10 WHIP in seven road starts for the Phillies this season.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs in his last three outings, earning a solid 2.55 ERA.  The righty faced Atlanta back in June, and he gave up just 3 runs and five hits in that outing.  The Braves’ offense is in poor current form; they’ve scored only 1 run in their last four games.  Atlanta has been poor in day games this season; they are only hitting .226 as a team in those games.

Atlanta will start Ervin Santana in this game.  Santana has had his issues at times with the Phillies, especially at home.  In his last two home games against Philadelphia, Santana has allowed 4 runs in six innings of work.  The Phillies’ offense is in good current form; they’ve scored 23 runs over their last four games.  Philadelphia is playing good baseball right now; they are 9-3 in their last 12 games.  There’s some good value in taking Philadelphia on the run line in this game on Wednesday afternoon.

10* Play PHILLIES (+1.5 runline).

Cleveland will host Detroit for Game 2 of their 4-game series on Tuesday night.  The Tigers’ Kyle Lobstein is coming off a solid start against the Yankees; he gave up just 1 earned run and four hits in six innings of work.  The southpaw will face a Cleveland team that has been mediocre against left-handed starters this season; the Indians are only 20-21 against lefties.  Cleveland’s offense is in poor current form as they are only averaging 3.7 runs per game over their last seven games.

The Indians will start Carlos Carrasco in this game.  Carrasco is pitching over his head, and he’s 1-4 with a horrendous 10.55 ERA and an ugly 2.67 WHIP in five career starts against Detroit.  The Tigers’ offense is in good current form as they are averaging 5.6 runs per game over their last seven games.  Detroit is also averaging 5.4 runs per game against division opponents while hitting .297 as a team in those games.  There’s some good value in taking Detroit on the run line in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play TIGERS (+1.5 runline).

These two teams closed out last season with Louisville beating Miami (FL) 36-9 in the Russell Athletic Bowl.  However, a lot has changed since that game.  Miami (FL) is much healthier for this game as they will have their best running back, Duke Johnson, on the field tonight; he missed the bowl game.  The Hurricanes will also have a new quarterback in true freshman Brad Kaaya.  He beat out experienced and BYU transfer Jake Heaps, and all reports out of Miami say Kaaya has the goods to be an elite college quarterback.  Miami’s ability to run the ball successfully with Johnson in this game will keep the pressure off Kaaya.  Louisville is replacing seven defensive starters while switching to a 3-4 defensive scheme, so Miami’s offense will take advantage of the Cardinals’ transition.  The Hurricanes have had all summer to prepare for Louisville, and they are hell-bent on erasing the memory of the embarrassing bowl loss last season.

Louisville comes into this season with a slew of changes from last year’s 12-1 team.  The Cardinals have a new head coach in Bobby Petrino after Charlie Strong left for Texas.  The coaching personalities are complete opposites, so it will be a difficult transition for the returning players.  Louisville lost QB Teddy Bridgewater to the NFL, and his successor is sophomore Will Gardner who is learning a completely new system.  Gardner will not have Louisville’s best receiver as DaVante Parker is out with a broken bone in his foot.  Miami returns their entire starting secondary from last year, and that unit feels compelled to atone for their atrocious performance in last year’s game.  Miami is 9-4 ATS as an underdog in three year’s under head coach Al Golden, and the Hurricanes have a lot of motivation fro this game.  In what projects to be a close game throughout, we’ll take the points with the Hurricanes on Monday night.          

10* Play MIAMI (FL) (+).

This game will be played on a neutral field in Dallas, Texas so neither team will have the site advantage.  Oklahoma State gets the worst possible opponent in their season opener.  The Cowboys are a shell of the team they’ve had over the last few seasons.  They return just 8 total starters, 4 on each side of the ball.  The Cowboys do have JW Walsh back at quarterback, but without the supporting cast, his experience means little, especially against the fast and ferocious defense of Florida State.  Oklahoma State’s defense was sneaky good last year even though they didn’t get any recognition.  They gave up just 21.6 points per game which were the fewest points allowed since 2009.  The Cowboys are extremely young on defense this season, and they are up against it versus the speed of the Seminoles’ offense.

Florida State comes in off their National Championship season.  The Seminoles will be hard-pressed to repeat their dominance for the whole season, but in this game against this opponent, we certainly expect them to.  Florida State returns quarterback Jameis Winston along with six other offensive starters.  The Seminoles will slice thru the Oklahoma State defense, especially since they’ll own a huge speed edge on the artificial surface.  Florida State’s defense will dominate opponents once again, and the young Cowboys’ offense will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency.  Florida State holds all the edges in this game, and since my power ratings make this game north of 3 touchdowns, we’ll lay the points with the Seminoles on Saturday night.

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Fresno State and USC closed out 2013 in the Las Vegas Bowl; the Trojans won 45-20 as 6-point favorites.  The talent edge displayed by USC in that game was quite noticeable, and that was against Fresno State’s best team in a decade.  The Trojans return virtually intact while the Bulldogs must replace their record-setting offense.  Quarterback Derek Carr graduated and he’s now in the NFL.  The Bulldogs are also without their top two wide receivers who accounted for 2,744 receiving yards and 30 touchdown receptions.  Fresno State won 11 games last season, but five of those wins came by 7 points or less which indicates they also had good fortune on their side.

USC will begin a new era in this game as Steve Sarkisian takes over as head coach.  Sarkisian knows the USC culture from his time as offensive coordinator under Pete Carroll.  The recent news about racism is a bunch of hogwash coming from a disgruntled player who wasn’t going to play.  The current team and former players have all backed Sarkisian in this incident, so there’s an expectation of a big performance in this game to silence the critics.  The Trojans are a very good team on both sides of the ball, and their defense will be one of the best in the country.  They allowed just 21 points per game last season, and they will dominate a young and inexperience Fresno State offense in this game.  This game is a mismatch as USC lays over the Bulldogs at every position.  Lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Clemson and Georgia will open their season against each other for the second consecutive year.  We won a Best Bet on Clemson as a home underdog in their 38-35 win over Georgia last season, but we’re going to flip sides for this game.  Clemson lost a lot of explosive talent from last year’s 11-2 team that won the Orange Bowl.  The Tigers must replace six offensive starters, including their quarterback, running back, and top two wide receivers.  Clemson’s offense averaged 41 and 40 points over the last two years, but their production is going to take a significant drop this season.  That will be quite evident in this game against Georgia’s defense, a unit that will be one of the best in the country at season’s end.

Georgia had a disappointing 2013.  The Bulldogs went just 8-5, and they lost quarterback Aaron Murray to a season-ending ACL injury.  Georgia suffered thru a slew of injuries last year, and they just couldn’t overcome them.  But last year’s misfortunes will benefit Georgia this season as many players gained valuable playing experience, especially QB Hutson Mason.  He completed 60.9% of his passes while throwing for 968 yards last season, and his numbers will improve this year.  Mason has a terrific running game to lean on, and the wide receivers will be one of the top units in the SEC.  Clemson’s defense is pretty good, but they will wear down because they will be on the field for a long time in this game as the Tigers’ offense will be unable to sustain drives against the stout Bulldogs’ defense.  Georgia is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday.

9* Play GEORGIA (-).

The final week of the NFL preseason is tricky as many teams just go thru the motions with an eye towards the regular season.  Seattle takes an opposite approach, especially since Pete Carroll took over as head coach.  The Seahawks play preseason games like regular season games as Carroll puts a lot of emphasis on the results.  Under Carroll, Seattle is 13-6 in preseason games, including a 3-1 record in the final week.  “This is a big final step for us,” Carroll said.  “A lot guys with opportunities, guys battling for spots. It’s a highly competitive opportunity and it’s a big deal to us. We can really show guys and give them the chance to make a statement for their opportunity to make this club.”  Those comments by Carroll show how much effort the Seahawks are putting into this game.

Oakland isn’t taking this game too serious as head coach Dennis Allen is simply looking past Seattle: “We’ll really focus the next couple of days basically on ourselves.”  Allen will not play quarterback Matt Schaub in this game; rookie Derek Carr will get the majority of the snaps.  Oakland’s QB rotation will be Carr and Matt McGloin, and that duo doesn’t compare to Seattle’s trio of Russell Wilson, Terrelle Pryor, and Tarvaris Jackson.  This will be the ninth consecutive year that Seattle and Oakland finish the preseason against each other.  The Seahawks are 7-1 in the previous eight games, winning all seven of those games by 5 points or more and by an average of 13.7 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Seattle in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

New Orleans will play in Indianapolis on Saturday night.  The Saints are 2-0 so far in the preseason despite playing without starting QB Drew Brees.  But he will play in this game, and his presence only makes the Saints’ quarterback rotation that much stronger.  New Orleans has been getting excellent production from QB’s Ryan Griffin and Luke McCown.  Griffin is completing 69% (29-42) of his passes with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  McCown is completing 63.3% (19-30) of his passes with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.  Under head coach Sean Payton, the Saints have been terrific in Week 3 of the preseason.  New Orleans is an incredible 7-1, including seven straight wins.  The Saints are playing tonight like a regular season game, and that is evident by the fact that Brees is starting under center.

Indianapolis comes in off an unbelievable loss in their last game.  The Colts led 26-0 going into the fourth quarter, but they ended up losing 27-26 to the Giants.  After Andrew Luck leaves, the Colts’ quarterback rotation is weak, especially when compared to what the Saints will have on the field.  Chandler Harnish and Matt Hasselbeck are limited in what they can produce, and that was clear last week when the Colts scored just 6 points in the second half.  Indianapolis did not score in the second half of their first preseason game.  To compare, the Saints have scored 20 second half points in their two games.  New Orleans’ edge in the second half will be greater now that Brees will take the majority of the snaps in the first half while Griffin and McCown will play the majority of the second half.  We’ll take the points with New Orleans in this game on Saturday night.       

10* Play SAINTS (+).

The Phillies struck first in their series with the Cardinals on Friday with a 5-4 victory and Philadelphia has now won three of their past four games overall.  David Buchanan takes the mound where's pitched better as of late.  The righty has allowed just three runs in each of his last three starts and has just two walks over that span as well for a solid 1.26 WHIP.  Buchanan beat the Cardinals 4-1 on the road June 19th when he gave up just one run and four hits in over seven innings of work, out dueling Shelby Miller in that game.

Miller continues to have issues with control and is 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA on the year.  He enters tonight's game in poor current form with a 5.00 ERA in his past three starts.  The Phillies are hitting the ball well right now with a .262 team batting average in their past seven games which is nearly 20 points higher than their overall season average.  Philadelphia presents solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog tonight.

10* Play PHILLIES (+1.5 runline).

It’s a battle of New York as the Jets host the Giants on Friday night.  The Giants are a perfect 3-0 in the preseason, but that record is phony and misleading.  Last week, they trailed 26-0 in Indianapolis going into the fourth quarter; they ended up winning 27-26.  The Giants’ first team offense has been atrocious this preseason.  In 11 series, the Giants have five three and outs.  Eight of the eleven series ended with a punt and another one ended on a lost fumble.  QB Eli Manning has been terrible, completing just 1 of his 9 passes for six yards in the last two games.  The Giants are installing the West Coast offense under new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and the results have been awful.  “It’s obvious, I think we got to work on a lot of things,” HC Tom Coughlin said. “We got to basically work on everything. We don’t have people that are running open. Our protection breaks down and we don’t react well under pressure.”

The Jets were impressive last week on the road in Cincinnati.  They won 25-17 despite the Bengals playing their starters deep and putting effort into that game.  The Jets’ situation this season is quite positive, and the team has built great chemistry.  “We’re way, way closer than last year,” Willie Colon said.  “Our stock as a team and family is going up.”  The Jets are playing this preseason with a purpose, and the Bengals complained that they blitzed too much last week.  Head coach Rex Ryan is setting the tone, and he’ll be relentless with his pressure on the wobbly Giants offensive line and their weak offense.  The Jets are simply the more cohesive football team right now, so we’ll take them in this game on Friday night.  

9* Play JETS (+).

Kansas City wraps up their brief two-game series in Colorado on Wednesday night.  Jorge De La Rosa is 8-2 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 11 home starts for the Rockies this season.  He is coming off a solid home win over the Reds; De La Rosa gave up just three runs on five hits in seven innings of work.  Kansas City is only averaging 3.9 runs per game against left-handed starters this season which is their weakest offensive subset overall.

The Royals’ Danny Duffy hasn’t been able to go deep in ballgames, averaging just 5.9 innings per outing this season.  Overall, Duffy is just 7-9 in 19 starts for Kansas City this year.  In one career start against the Rockies, Duffy earned an ugly 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in the thin air and altitude at Coors Field.  Colorado is hitting a solid .270 against left-handed starters this season, and they are averaging 5.9 runs per game at home with an incredible .317 team batting average.  Colorado presents solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play ROCKIES (+1.5 runline).

Philadelphia finishes up a West Coast swing on Sunday afternoon in San Francisco.  Tim Lincecum is in terrible current form; he is 0-3 with a 8.39 ERA in his last six outings for the Giants.  Lincecum has allowed 14 runs and 19 hits in his last three starts, earning him a horrendous 9.95 ERA and an ugly 2.05 WHIP.  The righty has lost two of his last three home starts against Philadelphia, and we expect the Phillies to give Lincecum trouble once again in this game. 

The Phillies will start David Buchanan in this game.  Buchanan has allowed just 7 runs and 17 hits in his last three starts, earning him a solid 3.26 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.  He only gave up two walks in those games.  Buchanan will face a San Francisco team that is in poor current form.  The Giants are 2-6 over their last eight games while averaging just 3.1 runs per game.  There’s some good value in taking Philadelphia on the run line in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play PHILLIES (+1.5 runline).

Houston and new head coach Bill O’Brien were embarrassed in their first preseason game last week.  The Texans were shutout in an ugly 32-0 loss in Arizona.  Houston will play at home tonight, and we expect a focused effort and a much better game from the Texans.  “I believe we’re a better team than we were three days ago,” O’Brien said.  “Obviously, we want to go out there on Saturday and play well. I think having these two practice sessions against Atlanta really helped our team.”  Houston’s quarterback rotation of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, and Tom Savage is better than what Atlanta has.  After Matt Ryan leaves for the Falcons, the team will be led by T.J. Yates and rookie Sean Renfree; that combination combined to complete just 41.9% (13-31) of their passes last week.

Atlanta comes in off a 16-10 win over Miami last week.  That win means very little, especially since the Dolphins are just 2-8 in their last ten preseason games.  Atlanta head coach Mike Smith has shown little interest in winning preseason games.  Overall, Smith is just 8-17 in the preseason, including a terrible 1-5 record in Week 2.  “We have a plan and we all know what it is,” Smith said.  “And that’s to make sure we have our players healthy and ready to go for Week 1 of the regular season. We're not going to deviate from that.”  This game means a lot more to Houston, so we’ll lay the points with the Texans on Saturday night. 

10* Play TEXANS (-).

Baltimore won for us last week when they beat San Francisco 23-3, and we’re going to come right back with the Ravens this week.  Baltimore takes early preseason games serious under head coach John Harbaugh; the Ravens are 14-5 in Weeks 1 thru 3 of the preseason.  Harbaugh will play his starters longer in this game: “Normally in the second preseason game you get a quarter, maybe a little more than a quarter,” he said.  “Some of that will be individualized for different players; the younger starters could go as much as a full first half.”  Quarterback Joe Flacco will play the first quarter before giving way to Tyrod Taylor who has played fantastic in preseason games the last couple of seasons.  Harbaugh is high on Taylor, and he wants to reward him with ample playing time: “I think Tyrod is a really good quarterback, and the chance to play that out in a game is really what makes the difference.”

Dallas lost 27-7 in San Diego last week, and tonight’s results don’t figure to be any better.  The elite offensive starters for Dallas will play, but they are at a disadvantage of playing their first preseason game against the Ravens’ starters that played last week.  Head coach Jason Garrett doesn’t put too much emphasis on early preseason games as he is 0-3 in Week 2.  Reports out of camp indicate Dallas’ defense is really struggling, and they have little depth on the backup units.  The Cowboys will have difficulty stopping the Ravens’ offense, and with Dallas’ first team offense getting their first reps at game speed, Baltimore holds a big advantage in this game.  After Tony Romo leaves, the Cowboys will play a mix of Brandon Weeden and Caleb Hanie, two guys who are new to the system.  Baltimore holds the edges in this preseason game, so we’ll lay the short price on Saturday night.  

9* Play RAVENS (-).

Cincinnati will host New York on Saturday night.  The Bengals come into this game off a loss last week; Kansas City beat them 41-39.  Off that disappointing result, we expect the Bengals to play much better tonight.  Head coach Marvin Lewis has shown a strong pattern in preseason games.  His teams usually go thru the motions in the opener, but he gears them up for Week 2.  Under Lewis, Cincinnati is a strong 8-3 in the second preseason game of the year.  There is plenty of focus on tonight’s results, and that has been evident in practice.  The Bengals wore pads all week, tempers flared and things got chippy.  Lewis will play his starters for most of the first half; Cincinnati’s high-powered offense scored 24 points in the first two quarters last week.

The New York Jets beat the Colts 13-10 last week.  An early preseason win is a rare thing for head coach Rex Ryan.  He was just 1-5 in Week 1 of the preseason heading into that game.  Ryan typically doesn’t get his teams primed for preseason games, and since they come in off a win, we expect regression tonight, especially against an opponent that takes these games seriously.  The Jets’ offense was atrocious last week as they gained just 235 total yards.  They won’t be able to trade points with Cincinnati’s offense.  The Bengals’ defense was not as bad as the 41 points allowed indicates.  Cincinnati gave up a punt return and had two interceptions returned on them for touchdowns; they only gave up 304 total yards and 15 first downs.  This game is more important for Cincinnati, so we’ll lay the points with the Bengals on Saturday night.

9* Play BENGALS (-).

Baltimore begins a 3-game weekend series in Cleveland on Friday night.  The Orioles are 35-24 on the road this season where they are scoring 4.9 runs per game.  Baltimore will face Cleveland’s Corey Kluber who is taking a big step-up in class after pitching against some weak offenses in his recent starts.  The Orioles are hitting .280 as a team in their last seven games while averaging a whopping 6.3 runs per game.  The Indians’ bullpen has been mediocre this season with 16 losses and 13 blown saves on the year.

The Orioles will start Wei-Yin Chen in this game.  Chen has allowed just 5 runs in his last three starts, earning him a terrific 2.21 ERA and 1.08 WHIP during that span.  Chen is 6-2 in ten road starts this season, and he’ll be facing a Cleveland team that is only hitting .240 against left-handed starters while scoring just 3.7 runs per game.  Baltimore’s bullpen is solid as they own a 3.25 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the season.  This should be a low scoring game with a posted Over/Under of just 7 total runs, so Baltimore presents extra value as a +1.5 runline underdog tonight.

9* Play ORIOLES (+1.5 runline).

Washington and New York will play the final game of their three-game series on Thursday night.  Stephen Strasburg has struggled away from home this season.  The righty is 1-8 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 12 road starts for the Nationals.  He gave up 4 runs in six innings pitched at New York back on March 31st this year.  New York is averaging 4.1 runs per game against division opponents this season with a .246 team batting average which are their best offensive subsets overall.

New York’s Dillon Gee has a 3.37 ERA and a solid 1.11 WHIP in eight home starts this season.  Gee is 7-3 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 13 career outings against Washington.  The Nationals’ offense is not very good away from home.  Washington is hitting only .236 while barely averaging 4.0 runs per game on the road this season, both of which are their worst offensive subsets overall.  New York is 3-3 during their past six games, but two of those three losses came by exactly one run, so the Mets present solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog tonight.

9* Play METS (+1.5 runline).

Kansas City begins an important 4-game series at home versus Oakland on Monday night.  The Royals have won seven straight games, and they’ve closed the gap on the Tigers in the AL Central race.  Yordano Ventura has a 3.48 and 1.28 WHIP at home for the Royals this season.  He is in good current form, winning his last two starts overall while giving up just 3 earned runs and 13 hits in 13 innings of work.  Ventura will face an Oakland team that is only hitting .240 away from home this season.  The Royals’ bullpen has been solid with 36 saves in 45 chances this year.

Oakland’s Sonny Gray is not in good current form.  He has allowed 8 runs and 13 hits in his last two starts, losing both of those outings.  One of those losses just came at home versus Kansas City on August 1st.  The Royals are the hottest teams in baseball with a 10-1 record over their past eleven games.  Kansas City has out-scored their opponents 52-20 in those ten wins.  This should be a low scoring game with a posted Over/Under line of just 7 total runs, so the +1.5 runline presents extra value tonight.

9* Play ROYALS (+1.5 runline).

Buffalo will play this game in Carolina on Friday night with a huge advantage.  The Bills already have a game under their belts after playing the New York Giants in the Hall of Fame game last Sunday night.  That game experience is a big edge, especially since Carolina has yet to play at game speed this season.  Buffalo was not at their best in that game, and head coach Doug Marrone and his players are set on playing much better in Game 2.  “I have a lot of confidence with where we’re going,” said center Eric Wood.  “There were some mental errors and such, that moving forward will get corrected.”  The Bills’ offense also wants to atone for their poor play in the preseason opener, and quarterback EJ Manuel has been vocal about it.  “We want to go out there and win as a team,” the QB said.  “My biggest goal for the offense. We want to go out there and score. That’s the big thing.”

Carolina isn’t putting too much stock into this game.  Head coach Ron Rivera is more interested in evaluating his talent and trying to form starting units on both sides of the ball.  “You never really know what you have until you get the guys out on the field in live action,” Rivera said.  “The action hasn’t been at game speed. We have no idea.”  Carolina will also be playing with a limited team as injuries have taken their toll, especially to the skill positions on offense.  Quarterback Cam Newton is unlikely to play (ankle), so the Panthers quarterback rotation is weak with Derek Anderson, Joe Webb, and Matt Blanchard.  The Bills have a much better QB rotation with EJ Manuel, Jeff Tuel, and Thaddeus Lewis.  Buffalo holds the edges in this game, so we’ll lay the short price with the Bills on Friday night.

9* Play BILLS (-).

Chicago welcomes Tampa Bay to town for interleague play on Friday afternoon.  Tsuyoshi Wada has allowed just 3 runs and 11 hits in his last two starts for the Cubs.  Overall, Wada has 19 strikeouts to just eight walks in 21.7 innings of work this season.  Tampa Bay is just 13-17 versus left-handed starters while only averaging 3.9 runs per game this season.  The Rays are hitting just .239 in interleague play while scoring only 3.1 runs per game this year.

The Cubs return home with a lot of momentum after going 4-2 on their road trip thru Los Angeles and Colorado with four straight-up underdog wins, scoring at least 6+ runs each time.  Chicago is simply playing good baseball right now.  Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer is just 3-3 in eleven road starts this season.  He has allowed 3 runs in each of his past three outings while lasting only six innings each time.  He is backed by a Tampa Bay bullpen that is just 5-8 on the road this season.  The wind is blowing in from the outfield today at Wrigley Field, so this should be a low scoring game with a posted Over/Under total of just 7 runs.  This means there is extra value with Chicago as a +1.5 runline home underdog on Friday afternoon.

9* Play CUBS (+1.5 runline).

San Francisco and Baltimore have more story lines than normal for a preseason game.  The 49ers and Ravens just played in the Super Bowl in February of 2013, and the teams are coached by the Harbaugh brothers.  While Week 1 of the preseason is usually meaningless, this game has some incentive, especially for Baltimore.  The Ravens are coming off a disappointing 8-8 season in which they failed to make the playoffs; the first time in head coach John Harbaugh’s tenure.  Harbaugh is set on his team starting the new season in a positive way, and a win over San Francisco is what he wants.  Harbaugh will play his starters for about a quarter: “We’re kind of on a standard plan right now. It won’t be anything we haven’t done in the past.”  Under Harbaugh, Baltimore is 5-1 SU in Week 1 of the preseason.  That record shows that he puts more emphasis on this game than his opponents.

The 49ers come into this game with little motivation.  Head coach Jim Harbaugh doesn’t put much stock into Week 1 results; his teams are just 1-2 SU while only averaging 8.7 points per game.  San Francisco is also playing with a limited offense right now because of injuries, so their first and second units will feature a lot of rookies and inexperienced players.  Offensive coordinator Greg Roman said he will scale back what they show against the Ravens, and stick with basic, fundamental football.  Baltimore also has a huge edge in quarterback rotation with Joe Flacco playing the first quarter before giving way to Tyrod Taylor, who has played fantastic in preseason games the last couple of seasons.  After Colin Kaepernick leaves, the 49ers will play a mix of Blaine Gabbert, Josh Johnson, and McLeod Bethel-Thompson.  Baltimore holds the edges in this preseason game, so we’ll lay the short price on Thursday night.  

9* Play RAVENS.

Oakland welcomes Tampa Bay to town for the start of a 3-game series on Monday night.  The Athletics have lost four of their last six games with two of those losses coming at home to the Royals in their last series.  Oakland’s Jeff Samardzija has allowed 9 runs in his last three starts, and he just hasn’t been as sharp as his earlier season form.  Samardzija will face a Rays’ offense that is in good current form.  Tampa Bay has scored 18 runs over their past three games.  The Rays have won their past 8 road games, and they are an incredible 16-3 in their last 19 games away from home.

Tampa Bay will start Alex Cobb who is in good current form.  He has allowed just 3 runs and 13 hits in his last three starts, striking out 24 while only walking four with an incredible 1.31 ERA and 0.82 WHIP during that span.  Cobb only gave up three hits to Oakland back in May; a game that resulted in a 5-2 Tampa Bay win.  Cobb has a 2.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in six career starts against the A’s.  Oakland’s offense has scored just 11 runs in their past four games, and their lineup is sorely missing Yoenis Cespedes who was traded to Boston.  The Rays’ bullpen has only four blown saves in 21 chances on the road this season.  This is projected to be a low scoring game with an Over/Under of just 7 total runs, so Tampa Bay presents extra value as a +1.5 runline underdog tonight.

10* Play RAYS (+1.5 runline).

Kansas City can pick up their fourth straight series victory with a win on Sunday in Oakland.  James Shields is 6-2 with a 3.44 ERA in 14 road starts for the Royals this season.  Shields is in good current form as he’s allowed just 2 earned runs in his last two starts.  He also likes to pitch in Oakland, allowing just 2 runs and nine hits in his last two road starts versus the A’s.  Shields had 20 strikeouts to only one walk in those outings.  Oakland’s offense is struggling, and they’ve been held scoreless in 23 of their last 24 innings of play.

Oakland’s Scott Kazmir has had his issues pitching against the Royals.  He lost two of his three starts against them last year after giving up 10 runs and 20 hits in those outings.  Kansas City’s offense has been good on the road this season.  The Royals are averaging 4.2 runs per game on the road where they are 29-26 on the season.  A low posted total of 7 indicates a low-scoring game, and that means there’s some good value in taking Kansas City on the run line in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

10* Play ROYALS (+1.5 runline).

Arizona will host Pittsburgh on Saturday night.  The Diamondbacks will start Chase Anderson.  He was given a two week rest to get his form back, and that time off has paid dividends.  Anderson has allowed just 3 runs and eight hits in his two starts since coming off the freshener.  Overall this season, Anderson is 4-2 with a 3.79 ERA in seven home starts for Arizona.  He has 60 strikeouts to just 24 walks in 13 appearances overall this year.

Pittsburgh will start Vance Worley who lost 10-2 versus Arizona at home on July 3rd as a -150 favorite.  Arizona’s offense is much better at home where they are averaging 4.2 runs per game this season with a solid .266 team batting average.  Pittsburgh is a completely different team on the road where they are just 24-30 (.444) on the season compared to 34-21 (.618) at home.  The Pirates’ offense only averages 3.9 runs per game on the road with a .240 batting average which are their worst offensive subsets overall.  There is solid value with Arizona as a +1.5 runline home underdog in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play DIAMONDBACKS (+1.5 runline).

Baltimore beat Los Angeles 7-6 in an extra-inning game on Tuesday night.  The Orioles will face Garrett Richards in tonight’s game.  The righty is coming off a home loss after giving up 4 runs and seven hits in six innings pitched to the Tigers.  Richards will face a Baltimore team that is 44-33 against right-handed starters this season while averaging 4.3 runs per game.  The Angels’ bullpen picked up their 13th loss of the season last night; they also have 13 blown saves on the year.  

Kevin Gausman has allowed just 7 runs in his last three starts for Baltimore.  Overall, Gausman is 4-3 with a 3.67 ERA in nine starts this season.  Prior to scoring 6 runs last night, the Angels had scored 4 runs or less in their previous seven games.  Los Angeles’ offense has been inconsistent as of late, and they are only averaging 3.3 runs per game over their last ten games.  Baltimore’s bullpen is 10-4 at home where they own a solid 3.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the season.  There’s some good value in taking Baltimore on the run line in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play ORIOLES (+1.5 runline).

Miami will host Washington for Game 2 of their 3-game series on Tuesday night.  The Nationals’ Stephen Strasburg had one of his worst outings of the season the last time he pitched in Miami.  Strasburg allowed 6 runs and eight hits in four innings of work back on April 15th.  The righty is a terrible 1-6 with an ugly 5.09 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 10 road starts this season.  Strasburg is not in good current form either as he owns a 5.00 ERA and an awful 1.61 WHIP in his last three starts with two of those outings being losses.  Miami is 29-24 at home where they are averaging 4.6 runs per game.  

The Marlins’ Henderson Alvarez has pitched well at home this season.  He is 4-2 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 home starts.  The righty has also pitched well twice against the Nationals this season, and both of those outings came in Washington.  Alvarez gave up just 1 earned run and 11 hits in those two games.  Washington’s offense has been inconsistent on their road trip, and they scored just 8 runs in three games in Cincinnati in their last series.  There’s some good value in taking Miami on the run line in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play MARLINS (+1.5 runline).

Minnesota will host Cleveland for Game 2 of their 3-game series on Tuesday night.  Yohan Pino will get the start for the Twins.  Pino has allowed just 2 runs and 10 hits in his last two starts while picking up a win over Seattle.  Pino has a 3.37 ERA and a solid 1.02 WHIP in three home starts this season.  He has allowed just 7 runs and 15 hits in those games.  Cleveland has a poor road record (21-30) to go along with an inconsistent offense.

Cleveland’s Danny Salazar is making his first Major League start since May 15th.  He went 3-6 with a poor 4.02 ERA in 10 AAA starts.  The righty is 0-3 with an awful 6.05 ERA and an ugly 1.55 WHIP in his four road starts for the Indians this season.  Salazar is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in three career starts against the Twins.  There is solid value with Minnesota as a +1.5 runline home underdog in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play TWINS (+1.5 runline).

St. Louis beat Los Angeles 3-2 on Friday night, and they’ll play Game 2 of their series on Saturday afternoon.  The Cardinals’ Joe Kelly will make his second start since coming off the disabled list.  He had his best effort at home back on April 11th when he gave up just 1 unearned run in six innings pitched against the Cubs.  Kelly’s last two home starts against the Dodgers last year also went well as he only allowed 3 runs and 12 hits in 11.3 innings of work.  Los Angeles has scored just 10 runs over their past six games; the Dodgers’ offense is struggling mightily right now.

Los Angeles will start Zack Greinke who is coming off a road loss at Detroit in his last outing.  Four of Greinke’s five losses this season have come away from Los Angeles.  The Cardinals are 28-20 at home this season, including 4-1 in their past five home games.  St. Louis is averaging 4.7 runs with a strong .283 team batting average in their past seven games overall and they are simply in better offensive form than Los Angeles right now.  The Cardinals also have the bullpen edge, especially since the Dodgers’ bullpen owns a weak 3-7 record with a 4.31 ERA and 1.50 WHIP on the road this season.  St. Louis presents solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play CARDINALS (+1.5 runline).

Two of the better teams in the American League meet in Oakland as the Athletics host the Orioles on Friday night.  Baltimore’s Chris Tillman (6-0) has not lost in 11 road starts this season; he has allowed just 5 runs and 12 hits in his last two games overall.  Tillman is 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three career outings against Oakland with the win coming on the road last year.  Oakland’s offense entered the All-Star break hitting just .230 over their previous seven games.  Baltimore’s bullpen has been solid this season (3.39 ERA), so Tillman has plenty of support on the backend if needed.

Jeff Samardzija is making his third start as a member of the Athletics.  He is coming off a loss at light-hitting Seattle where he allowed 3 runs and five hits in eight innings of work.  Baltimore is 26-19 on the road where they are hitting .279 as a team while averaging 5.2 runs per game.  That is their best offensive run-scoring subset on the season.  Baltimore has had past success in Oakland, going 4-3 in their last seven games played there.  The Orioles present solid value as a +1.5 runline underdog in this game tonight.

9* Play ORIOLES (+1.5 runline).

Miami returns from the All-Star break to begin a 3-game home series with San Francisco on Friday night.  Madison Bumgarner ended the first half of the season in poor form for the Giants.  He allowed 15 runs and 26 hits in his last three starts for an awful 6.87 ERA and 1.75 WHIP.  Bumgarner has allowed 9 runs and 12 hits in his last two starts in Miami.  The Marlins are 14-8 against left-handed starters this season while hitting .275 and averaging 5.4 runs per game against them.  That is by far and away their best offensive subset on the season.

Nathan Eovaldi is 5-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 19 starts for Miami this season.  He has allowed just 4 runs and 10 hits in his last two starts for a solid 2.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.  San Francisco has lost 22 of their last 32 games while averaging less than 3 runs per game during that span.  The Marlins have won 11 of their last 18 games versus the Giants and Miami presents solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog tonight.

9* Play MARLINS (+1.5 runline).

Philadelphia will host Washington for the second game of this three-game series on Saturday night.  Stephen Strasburg is 1-5 with an awful 5.13 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in eight road starts for the Nationals this season.  He has allowed 10 runs and 17 hits in his last three starts overall.  Strasburg allowed 7 runs and 13 hits in two starts against Philadelphia earlier this season.  The Phillies are in good current form as they’ve won five straight games with their offense scoring 31 runs in those five games.

Cole Hamels has a 2.87 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 15 starts for Philadelphia this season.  He has 101 strikeouts and only 35 walks on the season.  Hamels is 15-6 with a 2.58 ERA and a solid 1.08 WHIP in 28 career starts against the Nationals.  In his past three starts against Washington, Hamels has allowed just 5 earned runs and 16 hits in 21 innings of work.  Washington is just 21-23 on the road this season where they are only averaging 3.8 runs per game.   Philadelphia provides solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play PHILLIES (+1.5 runline).

St. Louis won a close 7-6 game over Milwaukee on Friday night, and we expect another close game on Saturday afternoon.  The Brewers recalled Jimmy Nelson for this start; it will be his second start of the season.  Nelson did not allow a run in his last three AAA starts in the PCL.  Overall this season in the minors, Nelson is 10-2 with an incredible 1.46 ERA in 16 starts for Nashville.  The righty had 114 strikeouts to just 32 walks in those games.  Nelson allowed just 70 hits in 111 innings of work.  He beat the Marlins in Miami back on May 25th after allowing five hits in 5.7 innings of work.

Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals.  Last year, Wainwright gave up 5 runs and 11 hits in just 5.3 innings pitched in Milwaukee.  The Brewers are 20-16 in day games this season, and they have momentum after scoring 6 runs on 12 hits in Friday night’s game.  The Cardinals’ offense has been very mediocre this season, especially on the road where they are only averaging 3.4 runs per game.  In what projects to be a close game, we’ll take Milwaukee as a +1.5 runline home underdog on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play BREWERS (+1.5 runline).

Chicago beat Seattle 7-1 on Friday, and we expect another strong performance by the White Sox this afternoon.  Felix Hernandez gets the start for the Mariners.  He has struggled against the White Sox in the past, especially on the road.  Hernandez is just 1-5 with a 4.88 ERA in eight career starts at U.S. Cellular Field.  Chicago enters in solid current form as they have won two straight games, and five of their past seven games overall.  They have scored at least 4 runs or more in six of their past seven games while averaging 4.6 runs per game during that span.

Jose Quintana enters in solid form for the White Sox, allowing just 3 runs and 15 hits in his past three starts with an excellent 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP during that span.  Quintana just picked up road wins versus Toronto and Baltimore, two teams with good offenses.  Seattle’s offense is poor, especially against southpaws as they are scoring only 3.7 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.  The Mariners have lost eight of their past ten games played in Chicago, and since the White Sox are in good current form, we see solid value with Chicago as a +1.5 runline home underdog on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play WHITE SOX (+1.5 runline).

Oakland limps home after getting swept by the Tigers in Detroit.  The Athletics will begin a 4-game series against Toronto on Thursday night.  The Blue Jays will send R.A. Dickey to the mound.  The knuckleballer has a win at home over Oakland back on May 24th after allowing just 2 runs and five hits in 8.3 innings of work.  Overall, Dickey has allowed just 5 runs and 17 hits in his last three starts against Oakland. 

Sonny Gray is struggling for the A’s right now.  After taking nine days off, the righty allowed 5 runs and seven hits in five innings pitched in Miami.  He has allowed 10 runs and 20 hits in his last three outings.  Gray lost to Toronto last year after allowing 4 runs in six innings of work.  The Blue Jays are 22-18 on the road, and they are averaging 5 runs per game at night.  Oakland’s bullpen is 6-8 at home where they’ve only converted 8 saves in 14 chances.  Toronto has won all three meetings against Oakland this season, so there’s value in taking the Blue Jays on the run line in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play BLUE JAYS (+1.5 runline).

Baltimore closes out an 11-game homestand as they host Texas on Thursday night.  Yu Darvish gets the start for the Rangers.  Darvish has had his issues on the road lately, giving up 12 runs and 13 hits in his last two starts away from Arlington.  He lost to the Orioles at home in a previous start after giving up 3 runs in 6.7 innings of work.  Baltimore’s offense is solid, and they are in good current form right now.  The Orioles have scored 28 runs over their last four games.  The Rangers’ bullpen is shaky, especially on the road where they are 7-9 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the season.    

Wei-Yin Chen is 3-2 with a 3.93 ERA in nine home starts for Baltimore this season.  The southpaw faced the Rangers twice in the span of nine days last year, and he gave up just 2 runs and 11 hits while earning two wins.  Texas’ offense is not in good current form as they’ve scored just 10 runs over their last four games.  Baltimore’s bullpen (3.56 ERA) has a nice edge in this game as well.  There’s some good value in taking Baltimore on the run line in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play ORIOLES (+1.5 runline).

The Phillies and Braves wrap up a four-game series on Sunday afternoon.  The last time Aaron Harang saw Philadelphia he allowed nine runs and 13 hits over five innings in a 10-5 loss earlier this month on June 18th.  Overall, he has a terrible 5.90 ERA in 13 career starts against the Phillies.  He'll be backed by a Braves' bullpen that has been weaker on the road this season with a 3.68 ERA in 43 games, compared to a 2.96 ERA in their 38 home games.  Philadelphia's offense has also been better in daytime games this year, averaging 4.1 runs per game, compared to just 3.8 runs in nighttime games.

The Phillies' David Buchanan has won three straight starts, allowing just six runs and 16 hits over that span.  He'll be backed by a Phillies' bullpen that is in excellent current form with a 1.98 ERA since June 3rd.  The Braves' offense has been at their weakest in daytime games this season, averaging only 3.5 runs per game with a terrible .214 team batting average.  They will probably be without catcher Evan Gattis (.290 BA / 16 HR) who missed yesterday's game due to back spasms and is listed as doubtful today.  We'll take the value with Philadelphia as a +1.5 runline home underdog this afternoon.

9* Play PHILLIES (+1.5 runline).

New York and Pittsburgh played to a close, 3-2 final last night and we expect another tight game on Saturday afternoon.  Gerrit Cole is back on the mound for Pittsburgh after dealing with shoulder fatigue.  Cole made his last start on June 3rd, so he will be a bit rusty for this outing.  The Mets have a winning 16-11 record in day games this season, and their offense has scored 30 runs over their last five games.

Jon Niese is 4-4 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 15 starts for the Mets this season.  He owns a solid 2.92 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight road starts.  Niese allowed just 2 runs and three hits in his lone start against the Pirates earlier this season.  Pittsburgh is scoring just 3.8 runs per game against lefties, and they are only hitting .226 in day games.  The Pirates have played in 1-run games in three of their last four games, and in four of their last six games overall.  There’s some good value in taking New York on the run line in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play METS (+1.5 runline).

The Royals got back on the winning track with a 5-3 victory versus the Dodgers last night.  Kansas City will now face Clayton Kershaw who is coming off a no-hitter thrown at home versus Colorado in his last start.  Pitchers often regress after a no-hitter and Kershaw has been weaker on the road where he has a 3.08 ERA in five starts.  The southpaw is facing a Kansas City team that is 8-2 in interleague play this season while averaging 4.8 runs per game.

Danny Duffy will get the start for Kansas City.  He has allowed 5 runs and 13 hits in his last three starts.  Overall, Duffy has a 2.90 ERA and a solid 1.06 WHIP as a starter this season.  The Dodgers are only hitting .232 and scoring 3.6 runs per game in 20 games versus left-handed starters this season.  The bullpen edge goes to the Royals, especially with this game on their home field.  There’s some good value in taking Kansas City on the run line in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play ROYALS (+1.5 runline).

Baltimore returns home after a successful 4-2 SU road trip thru Tampa Bay and New York.  The Orioles now welcome Chicago to town; the White Sox have lost four straight games and eight of their last ten games overall.  Chris Sale has been good for the White Sox overall this season, but his recent outings have been poor.  He has allowed 9 runs and 20 hits in his past three starts.  Sale lost his last start in Baltimore after giving up 4 runs and six hits in four innings of work.  Baltimore’s lineup is finally healthy and complete, and they are in good current form.  The Orioles have scored 26 runs over their past five games.

Wei-Yin Chen is 7-2 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 14 starts for Baltimore.  Chen has been strong at home where he is 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.  Over his past three starts, Chen has allowed 5 runs and 15 hits while walking just one batter during that span.  Last year, Chen gave up 2 runs and six hits in six innings pitched at home against the White Sox.  He has not lost to Chicago in three career starts.  Chicago is just 14-23 SU on the road this season, and they are simply not getting a lot of offensive production.  Baltimore has won 10 of their past 15 games versus Chicago, including 6 of the last 8 games at home.  There is solid value with Baltimore as a +1.5 runline home underdog on Monday night.

10* Play ORIOLES (+1.5 runline).

Atlanta continued their domination of Washington on Thursday night with a 3-0 win.  Stephen Strasburg takes the mound on Friday night for the Nationals.  He is 3-5 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Braves.  Washington is only 5-8 versus Atlanta in games started by Strasburg.  He lost to Atlanta at home back on April 5th after giving up 6 runs and eight hits in 4.3 innings of work.  Freddie Freeman (7-17), Jason Heyward (9-23), Chris Johnson (5-18), Dan Uggla (12-30) and Justin Upton (5-18) all have good numbers against Washington’s ace.

Mike Minor is 3-2 for the Braves in nine career starts against Washington.  In his three starts against the Nationals last season, each game was decided by exactly 1 run.  Minor has good numbers against Ian Desmond (5-21), Danny Espinosa (3-13) and Ryan Zimmerman (5-20).  Atlanta has won 14 of their last 22 games in Washington, and 27 of their last 44 games versus the Nationals overall.  There’s some good value in taking Atlanta on the run line in this game on Friday night.

9* Play BRAVES (+1.5 runline).

Miami comes into tonight’s game off back-to-back blowout home losses.  The Heat lost by 19 points in Game 3 and by 21 points in Game 4.  Those two losses are not a true representation of these two teams, and we can fully expect Miami to bring their ‘A’ game tonight.  The Heat didn’t shoot all that poorly in Game 4; they shot 45.1% (32-71) from the field and 40.9% (9-22) from three-point land.  Miami’s issue came at the free throw line where they shot an ugly 65.0% (13-20).  For the season, Miami is a solid free throw shooting team as they hit 76.4% from the line.  Miami will make their free throws tonight, and that will make them much more competitive than they were in the last two games.  Miami has also proven they can win on San Antonio’s home court; they won Game 2 (98-96) and they also won Game 4 in last year’s NBA Finals (109-93).  Miami is also 13-1 SU off a loss in the playoffs over the last few seasons.

San Antonio’s offense has been incredible in the last two games.  The Spurs shot a combined 58.2% (78-134) from the field in Games 3 and 4.  Those shooting numbers are unsustainable, and with San Antonio up 3-1 in the series and returning home off a pair of blowout road wins, we expect some regression tonight.  The Spurs also shot incredibly well from three-point land as they hit 43.9% (18-41), and from the free throw line where they hit 77.2% (44-57).  It’s hard to see San Antonio being efficient in all three offensive categories tonight.  This line is also inflated as it’s an 10.5-point swing from Game 4 when Miami was a 5-point favorite.  It’s also a 1.5-point difference from Game 2 when Miami was just a 4-point underdog on San Antonio’s home court.  Miami holds excellent value as they are a Class-A team coming off back-to-back blowout losses in which they trailed by 25 points or more in each game.  We’ll take the points with Miami in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.

10* Play HEAT (+).

Houston has won three of their last four games as they host Tampa Bay on Sunday afternoon.  Brad Peacock has allowed only 5 runs and 15 hits in his last three starts for the Astros (2.65 ERA / 1.12 WHIP).  He pitched well at home against the Angels and Orioles who have much better offenses compared to Tampa Bay.  The Rays are a weak 8-16 SU in day games, and they are in poor offensive form right now, scoring just 34 runs in their past 13 games overall (2.6 runs per game).

Tampa Bay’s David Price has not been himself as of late.  Price has lost two straight home starts against Miami and Seattle.  He has just two wins in six road starts this season.  Houston has perked up offensively as they’ve scored 5.3 runs per game over their last seven games, going 5-2 SU during that span.  The Astros have also won three straight games versus left-handed starters.  Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been awful as of late, and overall they own a 4.28 ERA on the road this season.  Houston presents solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play ASTROS (+1.5 runline).

Game 3 favored San Antonio, and we won an easy Best Bet selection on the Spurs when they beat Miami 111-92.  However, the situation is much different now in Game 4 and Miami is now the team in a good situation.  The Heat lost at home for just the tenth time this season, and it was their first home loss in the playoffs this season.  In three home games following a previous home loss, Miami went 2-1 SU and ATS with the two wins coming by 23 and 11 points.  Miami is the two-time defending NBA champion and they have consistently shown the ability to bounce back after a playoff loss.  In fact, the Heat are a perfect 13-0 SU off their past 13 playoff defeats.  Going back further, Miami is 19-7 ATS following a playoff loss, including 11-0 ATS after a loss by 11+ points.

San Antonio shot the lights out in Game 3.  The Spurs shot an incredible 59.4% (38-64) from the field and 45.0% (9-20) from three-point land.  The Spurs also hit 81.2% (26-32) from the free throw line.  Miami’s defense was obviously poor in Game 3, but off a blowout loss, we can expect the Heat to buckle down tonight.  It was just the fourth time in the playoffs that Miami allowed more than 100 points.  In three games directly following, Miami has allowed just 96, 83, and 96 points.  All three of those games resulted in Miami wins, and it’s impressive considering that all three wins came on the road.  Miami should bounce back even stronger at home tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Heat in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

9* Play HEAT (-).

This series is tied at two games apiece after Miami won at home on Sunday night.  That game went back and forth in the fourth quarter, and the Heat simply made the shots to win the game.  San Antonio is in a good bounce back spot tonight off that loss, and there is solid value with the Spurs at an underdog price.  San Antonio has played 20 games in the playoffs this season, and they’ve only been an underdog in four of those games.  They went 2-2 SU in those games, but one game came after a 4-day layoff, so we can discount those results.  San Antonio’s offense shot poorly from the field in Game 2 as they hit just 43.9% (36-82) and a terrible 60.0% (12-20) from the free throw line.  The Spurs missed critical free throws in the fourth quarter, including four straight after a technical foul on Miami.  Those misses turned the game around as the Spurs would have taken control and stretched their lead with a few minutes left to play.  San Antonio is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the league at 78.1%, so we expect them to make their attempts tonight.

Miami was in a strong situational spot for Game 2, and they cashed a Best Bet selection for us in their 98-96 win over the Spurs.  The Heat shot an incredible 52.9% (37-70) from the field and 42.1% (8-19) from three-point land.  LeBron James played superb as he scored 35 points on 63.6% (14-22) from the field, including a perfect 3-for-3 from beyond the arc.  James was on a mission after missing most of the fourth quarter in Game 1 due to leg cramps; he took a lot of negative press after the series opener.  Miami is now in a bit of a flat spot after their outright road win in Game 2.  The Spurs and Heat alternated wins and losses in the first six games of the Finals last season, including an easy 36-point bounce back win by San Antonio in Game 3, and there’s no reason that trend won’t repeat itself this year.  We’ll take the points with San Antonio in Game 3 of the NBA Finals tonight.

10* Play SPURS (+).

There is no question that the loss of LeBron James in the fourth quarter due to leg cramps made a huge difference in Game 1.  The Heat were winning when James first left with 7:37 remaining in the fourth quarter, and the Heat were trailing by only 2 points when James left the game and never returned at the 4:00 mark.  San Antonio shot an incredible 87.5% from the field as a team in the fourth quarter.  Miami obviously missed LeBron James' defensive presence, but it also appeared the Heat loss focus as an entire team defensively without their superstar on the court.

The situation will be different now in Game 2 on Sunday night as Miami and LeBron James have had two full days of rest and practice to regroup.  Miami is still the two-time defending NBA champion and they have consistently shown the ability to bounce back after a playoff loss.  In fact, the Heat are a perfect 12-0 SU off their past twelve playoff defeats.  Going back further, Miami is 18-7 ATS following a playoff loss, including 10-0 ATS after a loss by 11+ points.

Miami is a perfect 5-0 ATS in Game 2 after a loss and this is the third straight year that Miami has lost Game 1 of the NBA Finals.  In each of the past two seasons, the Heat have bounced back to win Game 2 and the NBA championship overall.  In 2012, Miami lost at Oklahoma City in Game 1 by 11 points and responded with a straight-up win as a +5.5 point road underdog in Game 2.  The game was never as close as the 100-96 final score indicated as Miami led by 17 points and never trailed in the entire game.  Last year, Miami lost outright as a home favorite versus the Spurs in Game 1, but the Heat once again bounced back with an easy win in Game 2 (103-84) and led by as many as 27 points.  Look for history to repeat itself and for Miami to bring their 'A'-game in Game 2 tonight.

10* Play HEAT (+).

Oakland and Baltimore are two of the hottest teams in the American League as they square off on Sunday afternoon.  The Orioles’ Ubaldo Jimenez has never lost in his four career starts against Oakland.  Last year, he allowed just 3 runs and five hits against the Athletics in two wins.  Jimenez is in good current form right now, having allowed just 1 earned run in each of his past two outings.

Scott Kazmir is pitching a bit over his head right now.  He has a 3.11 ERA in seven road starts for Oakland.  However, Kazmir is taking a big step-up in class versus the hot Baltimore offense that is averaging 6.0 runs per game in their past seven games with a fantastic .308 team batting average during that span.  The Orioles have crushed left-handed pitching recently; they have 38 hits in their last three games against southpaws.  The Orioles are 5-2 in their past seven games, so they present solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog today.

9* Play ORIOLES (+1.5 runline).

This is the final game of this 3-game interleague series as the Dodgers host the White Sox tonight.  John Danks hopes to continue his strong pitching as of late having allowed just two runs and 11 hits in his past two starts (15 innings).  The southpaw has held current Dodgers' hitters to just 12 hits in 61 at-bats for a .197 batting average.  The biggest struggle has been from Chone Figgins who is 4-for-27 (.148) versus Danks.  The Dodgers are hitting only .219 against left-handed starters this season, scoring just 3.1 runs per game.

Josh Beckett is 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA in 10 starts, however he wasn't that great in his last start at home against the Pirates, lasting just five innings.  In fact, other than a strong complete games against Philadelphia, Beckett has allowed six runs in just 10 innings during his other two most recent starts.  This should be a low scoring game as the Over/Under line is only 7.5, so the White Sox present solid value as a +1.5 runline underdog tonight, especially considering the Dodgers have now lost 5 of their past 7 games.

9* Play WHITE SOX (+1.5 runline).

The Marlins took the first two games at home against the Rays and now Miami hits the road to play two more in Tampa.  The Rays' offense was non-existent on their past road trip thru Toronto, Boston and Miami.  They scored just 17 runs with 11 of those coming in the first two games against the Jays.  During the past six games, Tampa Bay has scored just 2, 2, 1, 0, 1, 0 runs.  Miami's starter Tom Koehler has a solid 3.18 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Koehler lost to the Rays last year despite giving up only three runs and seven hits in eight innings.

Tampa Bay's David Price has struggled this season, especially at home where he is 2-2 with an awful 5.13 ERA in six starts.  He also has a 4.98 ERA in his past three starts overall, allowing 13 runs and 22 hits.  The Marlins are hitting .299 in 14 games against left-handed starters this season, winning 10 of those and averaging nearly six runs per game.  The Rays' bullpen already has six losses and three blown saves at home this year and a mediocre 3.97 ERA in all games.  Miami is in much better current form and they present solid value as a +1.5 runline underdog tonight, especially in what should be a low scoring game (Over/Under 7).

10* Play MARLINS (+1.5 runline).

Seattle gets to face another lefty as they continue their series with the Tigers on Saturday night.  The Mariners are 14-8 against left-handed starters this season and will now face the mediocre Drew Smyly.  He is 1-3 with a 4.58 ERA in seven starts and has allowed nine runs and 15 hits in his last two starts, lasing only five innings in each game.  Smyly has allowed eight home runs in just over 37 innings this year.  He is backed by a suspect bullpen that has a 4.44 ERA this season and is likely to see extra action tonight since Smyly barely averages more than five innings per start this season.

Chris Young is 2-0 with a fantastic 1.65 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in his four home starts for Seattle this year.  He is coming off a home win versus the Angels on Monday in which he allowed just two hits in over six innings of work.  Young remains underrated this season and there is solid value with the Mariners as a +1.5 runline home underdog on Saturday night.

9* Play MARINERS (+1.5 runline).

It's interleague play in Chicago as the White Sox host the Padres.  John Danks is 3-4 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 10 starts for Chicago this season.  However, the lefty has pitched much better at home with a 3.13 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in five starts, including a stellar performance against the Yankees last Saturday when he allowed 0 runs and only 3 hits in eight innings.  Danks has never faced the Padres and has only seen Chris Denorfia (1-3) and Seth Smith (0-3), so the southpaw should hold an edge tonight.  San Diego remains one of the worst offensive teams in the league and they are hitting just .217 vs. left-handed starters and only .215 in road games this season.  The White Sox bullpen has been reliable with a 12-8 record and a 3.91 ERA this year.

Ian Kennedy is 3-6 with a 3.59 ERA in 11 starts for the Padres.  He has allowed 10 runs and 19 hits in his past three starts.  Adam Dunn should have success as he has three hits in five at-bats against Kennedy with two of those being home runs.  Chicago is 16-12 at home and is hitting .268 in their past seven games.  The White Sox present solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog tonight.

9* Play WHITE SOX (+1.5 runline).

Miami lost Game 1 in Indiana by 11 points (106-97), but since that defeat, the Heat have taken control of the series.  Miami has won the last three games, and it may seem like a foregone conclusion that they will close the series out tonight.  However, there’s reason to believe otherwise.  Indiana is Miami’s toughest match-up, and that has been the case over the last few seasons.  The last game in Miami was heavily influenced by the refs as the Heat took 34 free throw attempts to just 17 attempts for Indiana.  Miami was +15 in points scored from the free throw line in their two home games.  The Heat will not get all the favorable calls tonight with this game on Indiana’s home court.  In the first two games on their court, the Pacers held a 52-33 free throw attempts edge and they were +18 points scored from the free throw line.  Based on the officiating trends of the first four games of this series, Indiana will have a significant edge from the line.  

Indiana’s defense has been the best in the playoffs, and they are particularly stout on their home court.  At home this season, the Pacers allow just 89 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 33.9% shooting from three-point land.  In four home games versus Miami this season, the Pacers have held the Heat to just 87.5 points per game.  Indiana went 3-1 SU in those games with their lone loss coming by 4 points in Game 2 of this series.  Indiana has been incredible when playing at home off a SU road loss this season.  The Pacers are 9-2 SU in this situation, including a perfect 2-0 SU against Miami.  Indiana tends to blow teams out in this situation as their average margin of victory is a whopping 16.8 points per game.  We expect Indiana to bounce back with a strong effort tonight, so we’ll take the points in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night. 

10* Play PACERS (+).

Oklahoma City bounced back with a strong performance in Game 3 as expected, and there’s no reason they can’t get a similar outcome tonight.  San Antonio was sure to regress in their last game after scoring 234 points on 53.8% (91-169) shooting from the field, 45.0% (18-40) shooting from three-point land, and hitting 85.0% (34-40) from the free throw line in the first two games.  The Spurs’ efficiency dropped sharply on Sunday night as they scored just 97 points on 39.6% (36-91) shooting from the field.  San Antonio’s offense did not get many open looks inside the paint, and they had to settle for a lot of jump shots.  The reason for that was the unexpected return of Serge Ibaka who was ruled out for the season after injuring his calf.  Ibaka’s defensive presence is a key match-up advantage for the Thunder, and it was obvious that San Antonio was bothered with him on the court. 

In four regular season meetings against Oklahoma City, the Spurs’ offense only averaged 96.8 points per game in those four meetings.  The Thunder play with more confidence at home, and we saw their offense be aggressive in the last game.  Oklahoma City actually shot poorly as they hit just 45.7% (37-81) from the field and 27.3% (6-22) from three-point land.  But they took the ball to the rim and got to the free throw line 31 times in Game 3.  They also out-scored the Spurs 12-3 in fast-break points.  That combination was tough for San Antonio to overcome, and if Oklahoma City shoots a better percentage, the Spurs will be hard-pressed to stay close in this game.  The Thunder are 6-2 SU versus San Antonio over the last eight meetings, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home with their average win coming by 9.8 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Miami took a 2-1 series lead on Saturday night when they beat Indiana 99-87.  That game was a tale of two halves as the Pacers out-scored the Heat 42-38 in the first half while the Heat out-scored the Pacers 61-45 in the second half.  Despite the results of the last game, Indiana is still Miami’s toughest match-up; they’ve proven that over the last few seasons.  Miami is 6-4 versus Indiana over the last ten meetings, and four of the last seven meetings have been decided by less than the posted pointspread on tonight’s game.  The Pacers’ defense has been the best in the playoffs, but they played poorly in the last two games.  They allowed Miami to be too efficient from the field as the Heat shot a combined 52.6% (71-135) from the field and 47.4% (18-38) from three-point land.  Indiana’s defense will play much better tonight, and that will keep them competitive.

Miami once again got dominating performances by LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Game 3.  That duo controlled Game 2 as well.  They’ve scored a combined 94 points on 57.8% (37-64) from the field in the last two games.  Miami is only 3-3 ATS over their last six games, and they coved the spread in back-to-back games for the first time since May 6th and May 8th.  Prior to their 12-point win in Game 3, Miami’s three previous wins only came by 6, 2, and 4 points.  Indiana has been incredible when playing off a SU loss in the playoffs.  The Pacers are a strong 5-1 SU in this situation, including a 2-1 SU and ATS mark as an underdog.  Indiana is also 5-2 SU on the road in the playoffs, so they’ll bounce back with a strong effort tonight.  We’ll take the points with Indiana in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Monday night. 

9* Play PACERS (+).

San Antonio is up 2-0 in this series, and the main reason for that is their offense.  The Spurs’ offense has been terrific in the first two games.  They’ve scored 234 points while shooting an incredible 53.8% (91-169) from the field, 45.0% (18-40) from three-point land, and 85.0% (34-40) from the free throw line.  Those numbers are hard to sustain, and with this game coming on the road, we expect San Antonio’s hot shooting to cool way off.  The first two offensive performances by San Antonio versus Oklahoma City were significantly better than anything the Spurs showed in the regular season meetings.  In four regular season meetings against Oklahoma City, the Spurs’ offense never scored more than 105 points.  San Antonio only averaged 96.8 points per game in those four meetings.  The Spurs are ripe for a reversal of form, and with the Thunder in a must win situation, we expect the desperate team to play much better in this game.

Oklahoma City was simply in terrible situations for the first two games of this series.  The Thunder were playing their fourth and fifth games on the road over a 12-day span, and they were also coming off an energy-draining series against the Clippers in which they made big comebacks to win back-to-back games.  Oklahoma City is now in a much better situation as they return home to play on their court for just the second time since May 7th.  The Thunder also have to be embarrassed by their performance in the first two games as they set playoff records for the margins of defeat.  Oklahoma City’s offense was atrocious in Game 2 as they scored a season-low 77 points after shooting 39.3% (35-89) from the field and an ugly 10.0% (2-10) from three-point land.  They also hit just 50.0% from the free throw line while only getting 10 attempts.  Their two top scorers, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, were terrible in combining for only 30 points on 32.5% (13-40) shooting from the field.  Oklahoma City will bring their ‘A’ game tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Thunder in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Kansas City’s Jason Vargas returns to Anaheim to face his former team on Sunday afternoon.  The Royals’ starter has pitched well on the road this season; he has given up 6 runs and 19 hits in four starts away from home.  Vargas has good career numbers against the Angels; he is 5-4 with a 2.51 ERA against the Angels in 12 starts.  Vargas is backed by a very good Kansas City bullpen, especially on the road where they own a 1.65 ERA as a unit.

Los Angeles’ Garrett Richards is having a good year, but he got shelled by Houston at home in his last start.  He gave up 5 runs and 10 hits in seven innings in that game.  Overall, Richards has a 5.85 ERA in three starts at home this season.  Kansas City’s offense is in good current form as they’ve scored 31 runs over their last six games.  The Angels’ bullpen could be short today after Joe Smith and Ernesto Frieri each pitched two innings last night.  There’s some value in taking Kansas City on the run line in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play ROYALS (+1.5 runline).

The series is tied at one game apiece as the scene shifts to Miami.  The Pacers easily won Game 1, but they couldn’t hold their fourth quarter lead in Game 2 and lost 87-83.  Indiana only lost that game by 4 points despite getting out-shot 50.7% to 40.0% by Miami.  That’s a positive sign for Indiana, and it shows that the Heat have a tough time getting separation from the Pacers.  Indiana is Miami’s toughest match-up, and that has been the case over the last few seasons.  The teams have split the last ten meetings, and four of the last six meetings have been decided by less than the posted pointspread on tonight’s game.  The Pacers’ defense has been the best in the playoffs, but they played poorly in the last game.  They didn’t give up many points, but they allowed Miami to be too efficient from the field.  Indiana has dominated the glass in the first two games; they’ve out-rebounded Miami 79-67, including a 23-10 edge on the offensive glass.

Miami got dominating performances by LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Game 2.  That duo combined to score more than half of Miami’s points (45 of 87) after shooting 55.9% (19-34) from the field.  The Heat will need other contributors tonight, but they don’t get consistent production when playing Indiana.  After opening the playoffs with a 5-1 ATS record, Miami is only 2-3 ATS over their last five games.  The Heat haven’t covered the spread in back-to-back games since May 6th and May 8th with their three wins since then only coming by 6, 2, and 4 point margins.  Indiana has been incredible when playing off a straight-up loss in the playoffs.  The Pacers are a perfect 5-0 SU in this situation, including a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS as an underdog.  Indiana is also 5-1 SU on the road in the playoffs this year, so they should bounce back with a strong effort tonight.  Paul George has been cleared to play and we’ll take the points with Indiana in game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday night.

10* Play PACERS (+).

Toronto has won four straight games and seven of their last eight games overall.  They will host Oakland on Saturday afternoon.  R.A. Dickey is 4-4 in 10 starts for the Blue Jays this season.  He has allowed 7 earned runs and 14 hits in his last three starts, and he is 4-1 overall at home.  Dickey gave up 3 earned runs total in two starts against the Athletics last year.  He has good numbers against Yoenis Cespedes (1-6), Coco Crisp (2-18), Eric Sogard (1-7) and Brandon Moss (2-9).  Oakland has scored just 10 runs in their last four games, so they are not in good current form.

Oakland’s Jesse Chavez has a 3.86 ERA in his last three starts.  Even with that slightly above average ERA, Chavez is still pitching a bit over his head.  Chavez was a career minor leaguer before this season, so we expect regression to set in.  The Blue Jays’ offense is in great form right now; they’ve scored 23 runs in their last four games.  There’s some good value in taking Toronto on the run line in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play BLUE JAYS (+1.5 runline).

Oklahoma City has played in back-to-back tough playoff series; they needed 7 games to beat Memphis and 6 games to beat the Los Angeles Clippers.  The Thunder will also play on the road for the fourth time in five games tonight, and it comes over a 10-day span.  Oklahoma City also made big comebacks in their last two games; they trailed by 15 points in Game 5 versus the Clippers and they trailed by 16 points in Game 6.  It will all catch up to the Thunder soon, and we expect tonight to be the night.  Oklahoma City will also play without Serge Ibaka for the rest of the playoffs as he suffered a calf injury in their last game.  His absence is huge because he is a terrific rebounder and a tough match-up for the Spurs.

San Antonio struggled with Dallas in their opening series; they needed 7 games to advance.  But the Spurs turned things on against Portland in their last series as they cruised to a 4-1 series win.  San Antonio won all four of those games by 15 points or more.  The last six wins by the Spurs have all come by more than tonight’s posted pointspread, and they scored 104 points or more in all six of those games.  Game 1 is huge for San Antonio after they lost all four games against Oklahoma City this season.  In fact, the Spurs are just 2-8 SU versus the Thunder in the last ten meetings.  San Antonio needs to win convincingly tonight to prove that they can play with Oklahoma City.  The fact that they are winless versus the Thunder ensures we will get a supreme effort from San Antonio.  The Spurs have no excuse in this game, especially with Oklahoma City missing Ibaka and the poor scheduling and situational spot the Thunder are in.  We’ll lay the points with San Antonio in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Monday night.

10* Play SPURS (-).

Brooklyn is down 3-1 in this series, but only one of those three losses was a clunker.  The Nets were in a terrible spot for Game 1, and they were never close in a 107-86 blowout loss.  In Game 2, the Nets were only down 2 points in the fourth quarter before losing by 12 points (94-82).  Brooklyn led by as many as 20 points in their 104-90 win in Game 3.  And in Game 4 on Monday night, the Nets led by a point with just over 4 minutes left to play in the game before ultimately losing 102-96.  Brooklyn has proven they can stay competitive with Miami, and the line is simply too high considering how close these teams are.  The Nets’ offense was poor in Game 4 as they shot just 43.6% (34-78) from the field and an ugly 22.7% (5-22) from three-point land.  Despite that awful performance, Brooklyn only lost the game by 6 points.   

Miami’s offense was terrific in the last game as they shot 52.9% (37-70) from the field.  LeBron James took the game over as he scored 49 points on 16 of 24 shooting from the field.  He also got to the free throw line 19 times in the game.  When we combine the poor shooting of Brooklyn and the incredible performance by LeBron James, it’s even more impressive that the Nets had a legitimate chance to win the game late.  Brooklyn went a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS against Miami in the regular season, and the Nets have been close in three of four games in this series.  That means Brooklyn has played Miami close in seven of eight meetings this season, so the Nets hold some tremendous value in this pointspread range.  Brooklyn’s season is on the line, so we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  We’ll take the points with the motivated underdog in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play NETS (+).

Los Angeles looked like a defeated team in the fourth quarter of Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.  The Clippers trailed by 15 points, but they stormed back and won 101-99 after out-scoring Oklahoma City 38-24 over the final 12 minutes of play.  That loss put a charge into Los Angeles while the loss deflated Oklahoma City.  The Clippers have all of the momentum coming into tonight’s crucial Game 5, and since they are getting a handful of points, we see some good value.  Los Angeles’ offense has been poor over the last couple of games, but they are too good to be held down for long.  In Game 4, the Clippers only shot 41.9% (39-93) from the field and an ugly 14.3% (3-21) from three-point land.  They were also bad from the free throw line as they went just 20-29 (69.0%).  Overall, their offense is much better as they average 108.2 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land. 

Oklahoma City has been erratic in the playoffs, and off the heartbreaking loss on Sunday, the Thunder may play with a bit of a hangover tonight.  Oklahoma City’s offense has been stagnant over the last two games as they’ve taken just 75 and 79 shots.  To compare, the Clippers have taken 93 shots in each of the last two games.  Los Angeles has more versatility on offense while the Thunder relies on Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook almost exclusively.  Oklahoma City could not stop Los Angeles inside in Game 4 as the Clippers out-scored the Thunder 52-32 inside the paint.  If that repeats and the Clippers get hot from outside, Oklahoma City has no chance to win this game.  That’s exactly what happened in Game 1 on Oklahoma City’s home court and the Clippers won by 17 points.  We’ll take the points with Los Angeles in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

9* Play CLIPPERS (+).

Chicago begins a 3-game series in Oakland on Monday night.  John Danks has had a lot of success against the Athletics in his career.  The southpaw is 6-1 with a 2.12 ERA in nine career starts against Oakland.  He beat them at home last year after allowing just 1 run and three hits in eight innings of work.  Coco Crisp (5-20), Craig Gentry (1-8), Jed Lowrie (0-9) and Nick Punto (4-24) all have had their problems with Danks.  Chicago’s bullpen owns an impressive 1.96 ERA over their last 15 games. 

Jesse Chavez is 2-1 with a 2.47 ERA in seven starts for Oakland.  However, he has shown cracks lately as he has given up 9 runs and 16 hits in his last three starts.  The White Sox are scoring 4.9 runs per game on the road this season, and since Chavez is in poor current form, we expect Chicago’s offense to do some damage tonight.  There’s good value in taking Chicago on the run line in this game on Monday night.

9* Play WHITE SOX (+1.5 runline).

Portland played better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, but the Blazers could not overcome San Antonio’s hot shooting.  That has been the case in the first two games so far as the Spurs have shot a combined 52.0% (92-177) from the field and 52.8% (19-36) from three-point land.  San Antonio’s offense has been on a major roll over their last five games as they’ve averaged 113.8 points per game on 51.9% shooting from the field and 47.8% shooting from three-point land.  Those high shooting percentages are simply unsustainable, and we expect San Antonio’s offense to cool way down, especially tonight on the road.  The Spurs’ three road games in their last playoff series versus Dallas were less than dominating as they went just 1-2 SU with their lone win coming by just 4 points after their offense scored just 93 points.  San Antonio is ‘fat and happy’ after their two blowout wins at home, so there’s reason to expect a lesser performance tonight.

The Trail Blazers have been solid at home all season.  Portland is 33-11 on their home court, and since they are down 0-2 in this series, we can expect a strong bounce back effort from a desperate team.  Portland’s offense is strong at home as they average 108 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  In four regular season games versus the Spurs this season, Portland averaged 105.6 points per game; they scored 109 points or more in three of the four games.  The Blazers’ offense is much better than they showed in Games 1 and 2 when they scored a total of 189 points.  In three home playoff games this season, Portland has averaged 112.7 points per game.  In three road playoff games, San Antonio’s defense has given up an average of 103.7 points per game.  Based upon those numbers, Portland’s offense will breakout tonight and that gives them a good shot to get back in this series.  We’ll take the points with Portland in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Brooklyn failed to come thru for us in Game 2, but we have no hesitation in backing the Nets once again in Game 3.  As expected, Brooklyn played much better in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, but the fourth quarter did them in as they were out-scored 25-15 and lost the game 94-82.  Brooklyn has been one of the best home teams in 2014, and we expect a desperate Nets team to get back in this series with a solid win tonight.  At home, Brooklyn is 24-5 SU in 2014, including a 104-95 win in overtime versus the Heat.  Miami is quite satisfied with their 2-0 sweep at home, so tonight’s game is a bit of a flat spot for the Heat.  Their hot shooting has to cool off as well after hitting 53.1% (77-145) from the field, 40.4% (19-47) from three-point land, and 82.4% (28-34) from the free throw line in the first two games.

Miami’s two blowout wins have created a misconception that they have the superior team.  The reality of that is not true, especially considering Brooklyn went a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS against Miami in the regular season.  These two teams are much closer than the recent results suggest, and because of that, Brooklyn holds some tremendous value as a home underdog in this game.  The Nets won all four of the regular season meetings with the Heat this season; Brooklyn won three games by a single point and the other win came in overtime.  The close games show that the margin between Brooklyn and Miami is extremely thin, and that means the 21 and 12-point wins by the Heat so far is not a true representation of this matchup.  Brooklyn knows their season is on the line, so we’ll take the points with the motivated and hungry underdog in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play NETS (+).

Two southpaws will be on the mound as the Rangers host the Red Sox on Saturday night.  Martin Perez is 4-2 with a 3.59 ERA in seven starts for Texas this season.  He has allowed 10 runs and 23 hits in four starts at home.  Perez beat the Red Sox back on April 8th, so he has had success already versus Boston’s lineup.  The Red Sox have struggled on offense on the road this season; they are hitting just .214 as a team while scoring 3.4 runs per game.

Boston’s Jon Lester is coming off a dominating 15 strikeout performance at home against Oakland in his last start.  Lester will likely regress tonight, especially since he is just 3-4 in seven starts this season.  Last year, Lester gave up 6 runs and 12 hits in two starts against the Rangers.  He is 3-3 with a 4.56 ERA in 12 career starts against Texas.  Adrian Beltre (9-25) and Prince Fielder (4-15) have had the most success versus Lester.  Texas is hitting .282 while scoring 5.6 runs per game in 14 games against left-handed starters this season.  There’s good value in taking Texas on the run line in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play RANGERS (+1.5 runline).

Portland played well below their capabilities in Game 1 on Tuesday night.  The Blazers lost by 24 points (116-92) after shooting just 37.8% (31-82) from the field and 25.0% (4-16) from three-point land.  The poor offensive performance by Portland can be attributed to the three days off they had before that game.  The Blazers are a team that likes to play up-tempo basketball, and rhythm is vital to their success.  Portland’s offense will be much more fluid tonight, and because of that the Blazers will be competitive.  Overall, Portland averages 106.9 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 37.0% shooting from three-point land.  In four regular season games versus the Spurs this season, Portland averaged 105.6 points per game; they scored 109 points or more in three of the four games.  The Blazers’ offense is much better than they played in Game 1, and we expect them to show it tonight.

San Antonio played an impressive Game 1 considering they were coming into that game off a grueling and emotional 7-game series versus Dallas.  The Spurs’ offense shot 50.6% (44-87) from the field and 43.8% (7-16) from three-point land.  San Antonio also hit 84.0% (21-25) from the free-throw line.  The Spurs scored 119 points in their Game 7 win over the Mavericks after shooting an incredible 56.8% (42-74) from the field and 41.7% (10-24) from three-point land.  That’s back-to-back games in which the Spurs’ offense shot the lights out, but we expect that to end tonight.  This is a terrible spot for San Antonio, and there’s reason to expect a flat performance considering their recent results and scheduling situation.  We’ll take the points with Portland in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Brooklyn was in a terrible spot for Game 1 in Miami, and that showed on the court.  The Nets came into that game off a grueling 7-game series versus Toronto, and the Nets had to play on the road in that Game 7.  Brooklyn then had to travel to Miami on one day of rest and face a fresh Heat team that hadn’t played a game in seven days.  Miami was also quite focused for Game 1 as they had lost all four regular season games to Brooklyn.  The Nets were simply up against it on Tuesday night, and the final score showed that.  Miami won by 21 points (107-86) after shooting an incredible 56.8% (42-74) from the field.  The Heat also hit 87.5% (14-16) from the free throw line, so they capitalized on their opportunities.  Now that Brooklyn has settled in, we expect the Nets to give Miami a stiffer challenge in Game 2 tonight.

Miami’s blowout win in Game 1 was aided by the terrible situation for Brooklyn as noted above.  These two teams are much closer than that final score suggests, and because of that, Brooklyn holds some value in this game.  The Nets won all four of the regular season meetings with the Heat this season; Brooklyn won three games by a single point and the other win came in overtime.  The close games show that the margin between Brooklyn and Miami is extremely thin, and that means the 21-point win by the Heat in Game 1 was an aberration.  Brooklyn is also a veteran team that has a lot of playoff experience, so one loss isn’t going to rattle the team.  We expect this game to be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Brooklyn on Thursday night.

9* Play NETS (+).

Los Angeles played an impressive Game 1 on Monday as they beat Oklahoma City 122-105.  The Clippers were coming into that game off a grueling and emotional 7-game series versus Golden State, and they had to travel with only one day of rest between games.  The Clippers’ offense was incredible as they shot 54.9% (45-82) from the field and 51.7% (15-29) from three-point land.  Los Angeles held an advantage from the free throw line as they were handed 30 attempts while Oklahoma City only took 23 free throws.  The Clippers scored 126 points in their Game 7 win over the Warriors after shooting 55.4% (46-83) from the field.  That’s back-to-back games in which the Clippers’ offense shot the lights out, but we expect that to end tonight.  This is a terrible spot for Los Angeles, and there’s reason to expect a flat performance considering their recent results and scheduling situation.

Oklahoma City played okay in Game 1, but they simply could not overcome the hot shooting of Los Angeles.  The Thunder lost for just the tenth time at home this season, and off that loss, we certainly expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  Oklahoma City has a strong offense that averages 105.8 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.  In five games versus the Clippers this season, Oklahoma City is averaging 107.4 points per game; they’ve scored 103 points or more in all five games.  Los Angeles is winning despite playing poor defense.  Over their last five games, the Clippers have given up 109.4 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with the hungry and motivated home favorite in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Washington beat Indiana 102-96 in Game 1 on Monday night, but we do not expect that to happen again in Game 2 tonight.  The Wizards simply shot the lights out from beyond the arc in that game, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to repeat that performance.  Washington shot an incredible 62.5% (10-16) from three-point land, and they also got to the free throw line 31 times in that game.  That game was an aberration, and we expect Indiana’s superiority to rein supreme in this game.  During the regular season, Washington’s offense was stymied by Indiana’s defense.  In three games, the Wizards only averaged 76.7 points per game while scoring 73 points or less in two of the three meetings.  Washington was the worst offensive team to play against the Pacers this season, and Indiana’s defense played their best versus the Wizards’ offense.  Indiana is a terrible match-up for Washington despite the results in Game 1.

Indiana lost for just the ninth time at home all season, and off that loss, we expect the Pacers to bounce back strong tonight.  Indiana has not lost back-to-back home games all season, and they are a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread when playing at home off a previous home loss this season.  The Pacers are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in this situation in the playoffs, winning those games by 12 and 16 points.  Indiana was limited in Game 1 because of foul trouble, but we certainly expect the Pacers to get a favorable whistle tonight.  Indiana’s defense will play much better tonight as they allow just 88.8 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll lay the points with Indiana in Game 2 on Wednesday night. 

9* Play PACERS (-).

Seattle and Oakland begin a 4-game series on Monday night in Oakland.  It’s a rematch of an April 13th meeting in which Oakland won 3-0.  Oakland’s Scott Kazmir got the win in that game, but he pitched over his head in that game.  Kazmir is 4-0 in six starts this season, but he got ‘fat and happy’ twice against light-hitting Houston.  Seattle is 8-3 against left-handed starters this season; they average 5.1 runs per game against them.  The Mariners have scored 4 runs or more in six straight games, so their offense is in good form.

Chris Young gave up just four hits and three walks in six innings pitched in that earlier game versus the Athletics.  Overall, the righty is 1-0 with a 3.32 ERA in four starts this season.  He is coming off a solid road win in New York over the Yankees.  This has been a tight series between Seattle and Oakland, and the Mariners have 11 wins in Oakland over the last few seasons.  The Mariners are in great current form right now, so we’ll take Seattle on the run line in this game on Monday night.

9* Play MARINERS (+1.5 runline).

Washington took care of Chicago much easier than expected.  The Wizards won that series in five games, and their only loss came by just 3 points.  Washington simply proved to be too fast for Chicago, and their offense was able to get easy baskets by using their speed edge.  Things will be much different for Washington in this series versus Indiana, and the Wizards’ offense will have to work hard for every basket.  During the regular season, Washington’s offense was stymied by Indiana’s defense.  In three games, the Wizards only averaged 76.7 points per game while scoring 73 points or less in two of the three meetings.  Washington was the worst offensive team to play against the Pacers this season, and Indiana’s defense played their best versus the Wizards’ offense.  Indiana is simply a terrible match-up for Washington.

Indiana was taken to the brink by Atlanta in the first round.  The Pacers survived in seven games, but Indiana struggled versus the Hawks all season so it came as no surprise.  Atlanta just owns some nice match-up edges over the Pacers.  This series is just the opposite with Indiana owning all the match-up edges by a significant margin.  The Pacers have to play tonight in a quick turnaround spot while Washington is well rested after last playing six days ago.  But basketball is a game of rhythm, and extended time off isn’t always a good thing.  The Pacers lost at home in Game 1 in their series versus the Hawks, so we can be assured that Indiana will bring their best effort tonight in order to avoid a repeat of that.  Indiana has been inconsistent over the second half of the season, but we expect a strong performance tonight, especially since they dominated Washington during the regular season.  We’ll lay the points with Indiana in Game 1 on Monday night.

10* Play PACERS (-).

Detroit can pick up a series sweep with a win on Sunday afternoon, but we expect Kansas City to be a tough out in this game.  Justin Verlander gets the start for the Tigers.  He is 3-1 in six starts this season, but half of his games have been 1-run victories or outright losses.  Verlander gave up 3 runs and six hits while only striking out two in six innings pitched against Kansas City on opening day.  Billy Butler (31-71), Salvador Perez (11-24) and Danny Valencia (4-13) hit the Tigers’ ace well.  Detroit’s bullpen is poor and they own a 5.33 ERA on the season. 

Jason Vargas is 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA in six starts for the Royals.  He allowed just 1 run and five hits in seven innings pitched against the Tigers back on April 2nd.  He has good numbers against Rajai Davis (1-11), Torii Hunter (8-32), Austin Jackson (3-17) and Alex Avila (2-8).  The Tigers’ offense has a history of struggling against Vargas, and they will do so once again in this game.  There’s some good value in taking Kansas City on the run line in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play ROYALS (+1.5 runline).

Memphis was embarrassed by Oklahoma City in Game 6 on their home court as they lost by 20 points (104-84).  The Grizzlies also lost their cool, and that got Zach Randolph suspended for this game.  However, Memphis is a resilient and deep team, and we expect them to bounce back strong tonight, even without one of their best players.  Memphis is 2-1 in Oklahoma City in this series; their lone loss came in Game 1 when they were simply in a terrible spot.  The Grizzlies are a perfect 2-0 SU when playing off a loss in this series, and playing well off a loss is something Memphis has done all season.  In fact, when playing off a SU loss, Memphis is 25-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 30-4 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 10-1 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS when playing off a SU loss based on tonight’s pointspread.

Oklahoma City has not played well at all in this series, especially their offense.  They’ve shot just 41.1% (211-513) from the field in the six games, and things are not likely to change tonight.  Memphis holds a big edge over the Thunder inside the paint, and because of that, Oklahoma City has not been able to get easy baskets.  Overall, Memphis has out-scored Oklahoma City 294-228 inside the paint, and they’ve made 220 field goals to the Thunder’s 211 made field goals.  Oklahoma City simply cannot stop Memphis inside.  The Grizzlies will shoot the ball much better from the perimeter tonight (21.4% in Game 6) and make their free throws (67.9% in Game 6); they shoot 73.7% from the line on the season.  We’ll take the points with Memphis as we expect this game to come right down to the wire.

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Hisashi Iwakuma makes his 2014 debut on Saturday afternoon as the Mariners continue their series with the Astros.  Iwakuma figures to throw 90 pitches or so for Seattle as he gets himself Major League ready.  He won’t be at his best in this first start, especially since he’ll be facing a Houston lineup that has perked up a bit in recent games.  Jose Altuve (4-11) and Matt Dominguez (4-11) have good numbers against the Mariners’ starter.  Seattle’s bullpen has not won a road game yet this season; they are 0-6 while blowing four saves in six chances.

Houston’s Dallas Keuchel is 2-1 with a 3.56 ERA in five starts this season.  He beat the Mariners in Seattle back on April 21st after giving up 2 runs and six hits in six innings of work.  The southpaw has allowed just 7 runs and 17 hits in three career starts against Seattle.  The Mariners’ offense is terrible as they are hitting .213 in seven day games while only scoring 3.6 runs per game.  There’s some good value in taking Houston on the run line in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play ASTROS (+1.5 runline).

Game 5 was tailor made for Los Angeles.  The Clippers returned home off a 21-point blowout loss (118-97) the game before, and they were playing in front of their home fans after the incident with their owner.  Los Angeles fed off their emotion, and the officials were also influenced in their calls.  The Clippers won 113-103 after shooting 48.7% (37-76) from the field and 40.0% (8-20) from three-point land.  Los Angeles held a huge advantage from the free throw line as they were handed a whopping 41 attempts while Golden State only took 19 free throws.  The Clippers hit 75.6% (31-41) from the line, and that was simply the difference in the game.  Tonight’s game will return to normal with the game on the Warriors’ home court; the Clippers will not get all of the favorable calls.  Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to match the emotion from Game 5, and they won’t be able to repeat their outstanding performance on the court.

Golden State played well in the last game, but they were at a disadvantage as noted above.  The Warriors’ offense is still in tremendous form as they are averaging 104.8 points per game over their last five games while shooting 46.9% from the field.  In eight games versus the Clippers this season, Golden State is averaging 107.1 points per game.  After the All-Star break, Golden State went 8-6 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 5th best defense.  Their poor performance in Game 5 can be forgotten because the Warriors are a much better defensive team than they showed in that game.  Golden State is 3-1 versus the Clippers at home this season with their lone loss coming by just 2 points.  We’ll take the points with the hungry and motivated home underdog in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

Brooklyn and Toronto have played a highly competitive series, and that was certainly expected.  There’s not much that separates the Nets and Raptors, so we expect tonight’s game to be close throughout, especially with this being a crucial Game 5.  Brooklyn blew a golden opportunity in Game 4 to go up 3-1 in the series after storming back from a 17-point deficit.  The game was tied going into the fourth quarter, but Brooklyn was terrible over the final 12 minutes of play as they scored just 12 points.  Overall, Brooklyn’s offense was poor as they shot just 41.2% (28-68) from the field and an ugly 20.0% (4-20) from three-point land.  The Nets also blew their opportunities from the free throw line as they missed 10 attempts (19-29) in the game.  Brooklyn’s best player in this series has been Joe Johnson, but he was terrible in Game 4 as he scored just 7 points in 41 minutes of action.  His offense will bounce back strong as will the entire Brooklyn team.

Toronto showed a lot of grit after their loss in Game 3.  In that game, the Raptors stormed back from a 15-point deficit midway thru the fourth quarter and tied the game with less than a minute to play.  They ended up losing, and we expected a bit of a hangover for Game 4.  That did not happen, and the fact that it didn’t now sets Toronto up for a poor showing tonight.  The Raptors were also fortunate they won Game 4 as they scored 20 points or less over the final three quarters; they scored 35 points to jump out to a 13-point lead in the first quarter.  Brooklyn basically led wire-to-wire in Game 1 on Toronto’s home court, and they led going into the fourth quarter of Game 2.  The Nets know they can win and play well in Toronto, and off a loss, we expect a big effort tonight.  The teams have alternated wins in every game, and we expect that trend to continue in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play NETS (+).

Memphis was in a terrible spot for Game 1, and that showed in their play when they got blown out by 14 points (100-86).  The Grizzlies bounced back strong in Game 2 when they won outright (111-105) in overtime as 7-point underdogs.  Memphis also played up to their potential in Games 3 and 4 as both went to overtime with the Grizzlies winning by 3 points and losing by 3 points.  The last three games have all been close, and we expect more of the same in Game 5 tonight.  Memphis has been tremendous when playing off a SU loss this season.  The Grizzlies are 24-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 26-5-2 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS when playing off a SU loss.

Oklahoma City has not played well at all in this series, especially their offense.  They’ve shot just 39.9% (138-346) from the field in the four games, and things are not likely to change tonight.  Memphis holds a big edge over the Thunder inside the paint, and because of that, Oklahoma City has not been able to get easy baskets.  Overall, Memphis has out-scored Oklahoma City 208-154 inside the paint, and they’ve made 152 field goals to the Thunder’s 138 made field goals.  Oklahoma City simply cannot stop Memphis inside.  The Grizzlies will shoot the ball much better from the perimeter tonight (30.0% in Game 4) and make their free throws (56.5% in Game 4); they shoot 73.8% from the line this season.  We’ll take the points with Memphis as we expect this game to come right down to the wire.

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Chicago welcomes Detroit to town on Tuesday night as Justin Verlander takes the mound for the Tigers.  Verlander is 15-12 with a 4.15 ERA in 30 career starts against Chicago.  He lost his last start in Chicago after giving up 7 runs and 11 hits in six innings of work.  Jeff Keppinger (5-13) and Dayan Viciedo (6-18) have good numbers against Verlander.  The White Sox scored 25 runs in their 4-game series against the Rays, and they are simply rolling offensively right now.  The Tigers’ bullpen is 4-3 with a 5.65 ERA on the season. 

Jose Quintana has pitched much better at home than on the road this season.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs and 10 hits in two home starts.  Quintana is 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA in five career starts against the Tigers.  He has good numbers against Alex Avila (1-6), Austin Jackson (3-16) and Victor Martinez (2-9).  Detroit has not played since April 26th and they are only 3-4 on the road; they are hitting .246 away from home.  There’s good value in taking Chicago on the run line in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play WHITE SOX (+1.5 runline).

Atlanta has been a surprise in this series, and they couldn’t have asked for anything more than being tied at two games apiece heading into Game 5.  The Hawks were the only team to make the playoffs with a losing record, and while some of their poor record can be attributed to injuries, the Hawks still have a lot of issues.  Atlanta’s offense is not a consistent unit, and after they scored 101 points in Game 1, they’ve only averaged 90.3 points per game over the last three games.  Atlanta’s defense is also extremely poor on the road as they allow opponents to score 103.6 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  In their 101-85 loss at Indiana in Game 2, the Hawks allowed the Pacers to shoot 52.9% (36-68) from the field and 47.1% (8-17) from three-point land.  In this critical Game 5 tonight, we expect a strong offensive performance from the Pacers, and Atlanta’s poor defense will be a contributing factor.

Indiana was the best team in the NBA in the first half of the season, but the Pacers dropped way down in the second half.  The reasons are unknown, but we fully expect Indiana to play like the early season team tonight, especially since the winner will take control of this series.  The Pacers played a solid second half in Game 4 as they out-scored Atlanta 49-40 after trailing by 6 points at the half.  Indiana should carry over that momentum into this game, and they’ll jump on the Hawks from the opening tip.  The Pacers play exceptional defense at home; they give up just 88.3 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  Indiana is the superior team, and we expect them to bring their ‘A’ game tonight and win this game by double digits.   

10* Play PACERS (-).

Chicago welcomes Tampa Bay to town on Friday night.  Chicago’s Erik Johnson has bounced back from a rough start to his season.  He has allowed just 2 earned runs and four hits in his last two starts against the Red Sox and Rangers.  Johnson will be facing a struggling Rays’ offense tonight; they’ve been especially bad away from home.  Tampa Bay is only hitting .186 as a team while averaging 1.7 runs per game in their eight road games this season. 

Tampa Bay’s Chris Archer is 2-1 with a 3.65 ERA in four starts this season.  However, his worst outing came on the road in Baltimore when he gave up 7 runs on 12 hits in five innings of work.  Archer will face another good lineup in Chicago tonight, and he will struggle as he did against the Orioles.  The White Sox are scoring 5.4 runs per game at home this season.  Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been overused as of late, so there won’t be much support for Archer late in this game.  There’s good value in taking Chicago on the run line in this game on Friday night.

9* Play WHITE SOX (+1.5 runline).