Detroit is 2-1 SU since the All-Star break, but they played all three of those games at home.  Even so, Detroit trailed by double digits late in the second half in all three games, and both of their wins came in overtime after making big comebacks.  The Pistons beat Portland 120-113 last night after coming back from a 13-point deficit.  Detroit had two starters play 40 minutes or more while eight players overall logged 22 minutes or more.  The Pistons will now hit the road while playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights.  Detroit’s defense has been poor on the road this season; the Pistons are giving up 104.4 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 39.4% shooting from three-point land.    

New Orleans made a big splash at the trading deadline when they landed DeMarcus Cousins from the Sacramento Kings.  With Cousins playing alongside Anthony Davis, many believed the Pelicans would dominate right away.  But that hasn’t been the case at all as New Orleans has lost all three of their games since the trade.  But the Pelicans played a terrific game in Oklahoma City on Sunday night, and they deserved a better outcome.  New Orleans has had two days off since, and with a return home, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Pelicans will be without Cousins after he got a technical foul in their last game, but his absence will force New Orleans to play more of a team game.  We’ll back New Orleans in this game on Wednesday night.    

9* Play PELICANS (-).

Florida State has an impressive 23-6 SU record, and the Seminoles already blew out Duke by 16 points (88-72) earlier this season.  But we expect a much different outcome in the rematch, especially with this game on Duke’s strong home court.  Florida State shot 53% (35-66) from the field in the first meeting, but that won’t be repeated tonight.  The Seminoles have played much better basketball at home than on the road, and in fact, Florida State is just 3-5 SU in true road games this season.  Florida State’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 76.1 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 38.6% shooting from three-point land.

Duke returns home off back-to-back road losses at Syracuse and at Miami, FL.  The Blue Devils are 14-1 SU at home this season, and with this being their final home game of the season, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Duke’s offense has been fantastic at home all season.  The Blue Devils are averaging 85.6 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Duke’s offense will take advantage of Florida State’s poor road defense, especially since the Seminoles will be playing their second consecutive road game, their fourth road game in five games, and their seventh road game over their last ten games overall.  We’ll lay the points with Duke in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play DUKE (-).

Indiana came out of the All-Star break with an easy 102-92 home win over the Memphis Grizzlies.  But the Pacers had to play the very next night on the road, and they got blown out in a 113-95 loss at the Miami Heat.  That was a bad scheduling spot for Indiana, and fatigue set-in during the fourth quarter when they got out-scored 30-16 by Miami.  Overall, the Pacers shot just 40% (34-85) from the field and 33.3% (4-12) from three-point land.  Indiana had last night off, so they are rested and ready for a strong bounce back performance tonight in Houston.  The Pacers waxed the Rockets 120-101 last month, and they are 2-2 SU over their last four meetings with the two losses coming by 10 and 4 points in overtime. 

Houston is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game against the Pacers.  The Rockets are 2-0 SU since the All-Star break with those wins coming by a combined 42 points.  Houston won at New Orleans by 30 points (129-99), and their last game was a 142-130 win at Minnesota.  The Rockets’ offense scored 271 total points in those two games while shooting 48.1% (89-185) from the field and 38.5% (42-109) from three-point land.  Those numbers are not sustainable, especially the amount of shots taken, so this is a prime spot for the Rockets to throw in a clunker.  This is a flat spot for Houston, so we’ll take Indiana plus the points in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play PACERS (+).

West Virginia opened the season with a 12-1 SU record, but the Mountaineers are just 11-5 SU and 6-10 ATS over their last sixteen games.  West Virginia will play back-to-back road games for just the second time this season; they lost the second game in this situation back in January.  West Virginia’s defense is in poor current form; the Mountaineers have given up 69.6 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  West Virginia is certainly a good team, but their recent play does not warrant them being priced in this range, especially on the road against a Baylor team that is in an excellent scheduling spot.

Baylor returns home off an expected road loss at Iowa State on Saturday.  The Bears are 14-2 SU at home this season, and with this being their final home game of the season, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Baylor’s defense has been fantastic at home all season.  The Bears are holding their opponents to just 58.9 points per game on 38% shooting from the field and 28.2% shooting from three-point land.  Baylor has held fifteen of their sixteen home opponents to less than 70 points this season.  West Virginia just scored 61 points in their last game at TCU, and they were fortunate to win that game by a single point.  Baylor is a monumental step-up in class for the Mountaineers’ offense, so expect them to struggle once again.  We’ll back Baylor in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play BAYLOR (+).

North Carolina has an impressive 25-5 SU record, and the Tar Heels are certainly one of the most talented teams in the country.  The Tar Heels already waxed Virginia by 24 points (65-41) earlier this season, but we expect a much closer game in the rematch.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play fast to be at their best, but they will not get their preferred pace tonight against a Virginia team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  Even though they blew out Virginia in the first meeting, the game was slow and the Tar Heels only scored 65 points at home.  North Carolina struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, and they are 0-3 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points.  Virginia routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so North Carolina’s offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.

Virginia returns home after a confidence-building 70-55 road win at NC State on Saturday.  The Cavaliers have lost their last two home games, so we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since they are playing with legitimate revenge.  Virginia plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Cavaliers only give up 51.1 points per game on 36.7% shooting from the field and 30.6% shooting from three point-land at home.  North Carolina’s defense has been terrible on the road where they allow 77.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land this season.  We’ll take the points with Virginia in this game on Monday night.

10* Play VIRGINIA (+).

New Orleans made a big splash at the trading deadline when they landed DeMarcus Cousins from the Sacramento Kings.  With Cousins playing alongside Anthony Davis, many believed the Pelicans would dominate right away.  But that hasn’t been the case at all as New Orleans got blown out in their first two games since the trade.  Tonight’s game at Oklahoma City will be their third game together, and we expect a much better result, especially since they are playing a limited Thunder team that mainly relies on Russell Westbrook for offense, and a team that has very little protection inside the paint.  This is a favorable matchup for New Orleans, and off back-to-back blowout losses, we expect this to be the game the Pelicans showcase what their new lineup is capable of.

Oklahoma City won their first game after the All-Star break.  The Thunder walloped a poor Lakers team by 17 points (110-93).  Oklahoma City got a rare team performance on offense as four of their five starters scored 15 points or more while five players scored at least 12 points or more.  Oklahoma City has been unable to produce that type of offensive production consistently this season; it’s usually Westbrook doing all the scoring on his own.  Oklahoma City allowed the Lakers to score 56 points inside the paint, and now they are taking a monumental step-up in class while facing Davis and Cousins.  This game will go right down to the wire, so we’ll take New Orleans plus the points on Sunday night.    

9* Play PELICANS (+).

Butler comes into today’s game at Xavier with an impressive 22-6 SU record.  However, this is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Bulldogs.  Butler will be playing back-to-back road games with their last being a 74-66 win at Villanova as 10-point underdogs.  Butler shot 50.9% (27-53) from the field and 40% (10-25) from three-point land in that game.  The Bulldogs will now lay points on the road off that upset win while playing in a natural letdown spot.  Butler will also be playing their fourth road game over their last six games, and their eighth road game over their last fourteenth game overall.

Xavier returns home off three straight road games with all of those games ending in defeat.  The Musketeers also lost their previous home game, so they will be primed for a peak performance this afternoon, especially against an upper echelon team like Butler.  Xavier is 12-2 SU at home where their defense is holding opponents to just 65 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  Xavier’s offense has also been much better at home where they average 77.4 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land this season.  We’ll take the points with Xavier in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play XAVIER (+).

Iowa comes into tonight’s game off an extremely fortunate 96-90 home overtime win over Indiana on Tuesday night.  The Hawkeyes were dominated in that game, but they overcame a double-digit deficit because of Indiana’s ineptitude and a very generous whistle (they had a 49-17 free throw attempts advantage).  That gift win snapped a 3-game losing streak for Iowa, but we expect them to revert back to their losing ways in this game.  The Hawkeyes’ defense has been their weakness as they’ve given up 70 points or more in ten of their last eleven games.  On the road, their defense has given up 85 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 39.9% shooting from three-point land.

Maryland is on a 2-game losing streak with their last being an 89-75 home loss to Minnesota.  The Terrapins are now primed for a big bounce back win, and we expect that tonight, especially since they already beat Iowa 84-76 on the road earlier this season.  Maryland has a very good defense, especially at home where they are holding opponents to just 66.5 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three point-land.  The Terrapins’ offense has been consistent all season while averaging 74.3 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land.  Maryland is the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Terrapins in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MARYLAND (-).

Baylor comes into today’s game at Iowa State with an impressive 23-5 SU record.  However, this is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Bears.  Baylor will hit the road while facing revenge after playing back-to-back home games.  Baylor beat Iowa State 65-63 at home earlier this season while out-shooting Iowa State 44.1%-39.3% from the field.  The Bears were also +5 points from the free throw line, but only won that game by 2 points on their home court.  Baylor’s offense is in poor current form, and they’ve struggled mightily with their half court offense against good defenses all season.  The Bears’ offense was unable to score on Iowa State at home, so it’s unlikely they’ll be able to do much damage against the Cyclones on the road.

Iowa State is in excellent current form as they’ve won four straight games and five of their last six games overall.  Iowa State is 10-3 SU at home where their offense has been very difficult to stop.  The Cyclones are averaging 82.2 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 39.4% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State’s strong offense will face a Baylor defense that has been significantly worse on the road, especially recently when they’ve allowed 73, 75, and 84 points in three of their last four road games.  This is a huge game for Iowa State, so we’ll back the Cyclones at home on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play IOWA STATE (-).

Towson comes into today’s game at William & Mary with a solid 19-11 SU record, including an 82-80 home win over the Tribe earlier this season.  Towson was down 46-33 at the half in that game, and they allowed William & Mary to shoot 46.2% (24-52) from the field and 45.5% (10-22) from three-point land.  The Tribe also got to the free throw line 31 times in that game.  Despite all that, Towson somehow managed to comeback and win that game.  But the fact that they allowed William & Mary to control that game on their strong home court does not bode well for the rematch which comes on the road this afternoon.  Towson’s offense is significantly worse on the road where they only average 68.2 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 28.9% shooting from three-point land this season.

William & Mary owns a 15-13 SU record, including a terrific 12-1 mark at home.  The Tribe will play their final home game of the season, and since they are off a poor 14-point home loss to Hofstra and playing with meaningful revenge, we expect a peak performance in this game.  William & Mary’s offense is in excellent current form.  The Tribe averaged 81.8 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 35.1% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This is a terrific spot for William & Mary to bounce back strong, so we’ll lay the points with the Tribe in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play WILLIAM & MARY (-).

Miami was one of the hottest teams in the NBA prior to the All-Star break.  The Heat went 14-2 SU over their last sixteen games before the break, and we expect Miami to pick up right where they left off in tonight’s game in Atlanta.  The Heat had no representatives in the All-Star game, and none were invited for the individual skill competitions.  Miami’s players felt disrespected, so expect a spirited effort in this game.  Head coach Erik Spoelstra has also put a lot of importance into the first game out of the break, and in fact, Miami beat the Hawks 115-111 in Atlanta as 10-point underdogs in this same spot a season ago.

Atlanta was up and down to close the first half of the season.  The Hawks alternated wins and losses over their last five games, and they went just 6-6 SU over their final twelve games before the All-Star break.  The Hawks are coached by Mike Budenholzer who was an assistant to Gregg Popovich in San Antonio.  Popovich allows his teams to ease back into game shape after the All-Star break, and Budenholzer has taken that same approach with Atlanta.  The Hawks lost their first game back after the break last season as noted above.  Miami beat Atlanta 116-93 in their last meeting in early February, and the Heat are a perfect 3-0 ATS versus the Hawks this season.  We’ll take the points with Miami in this game on Friday night.       

10* Play HEAT (+).

Memphis comes into tonight’s game at Cincinnati with a solid 18-9 SU record on the season.  However, the Tigers are in poor current form as they are just 1-3 SU over their last four games.  Memphis’ offense has been terrible recently.  In fact, the Tigers have scored 66 points or less in six of their last seven games.  It’s highly unlikely Memphis will be able to snap out of their offensive funk tonight, especially with this game being on the road.  Over their last five games, the Tigers are only averaging 66.4 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 30.6% shooting from three-point land.  Memphis will now face a stout Cincinnati defense that only gives up 62.8 points per game on 37.8% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land at home this season.   

Cincinnati is 24-3 SU on the season, including a perfect 16-0 SU at home.  The Bearcats always dictate a slow pace at home, so Memphis will be at a tactical disadvantage in this game.  Memphis will be unable to play at their preferred fast pace, and their offense will not be able to trade points with the highly efficient Bearcats offense.  Cincinnati is averaging 84.6 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Bearcats’ average win at home has come by 21.8 points per game overall, and by 17.3 points per game in conference play.  We’ll lay the points with Cincinnati in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CINCINNATI (-).

Oregon comes into tonight’s game at California with an impressive 24-4 SU record.  However, this is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Ducks.  Oregon comes off back-to-back blowout wins at home with the last being a 101-73 throttling of Colorado.  The Ducks have scored 180 total points in their last two games while shooting an incredible 55.6% (65-117) from the field, 47.9% (23-48) from three-point land, and 79.4% (27-34) from the free throw line.  Oregon has struggled mightily with their half court offense on the road in slow-paced games this season; the Ducks are just 1-3 SU when they’ve scored less than 70 points away from home with their lone win coming by just 4 points.  California has held all sixteen of their home opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time this season.

California returns home off three straight road games with their last two ending in defeat.  The Golden Bears will be primed for a peak performance tonight, especially against an upper echelon team like Oregon.  California plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense, especially at home.  The Golden Bears only give up 60.3 points per game on 37.7% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  California’s offense has also been much better at home where they average 72.2 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the field this season.  We’ll take the points with California in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play CALIFORNIA (+).

Xavier comes into tonight’s game at Seton Hall with a solid 18-9 SU record, including a 72-70 home win over the Pirates earlier this season.  Xavier outshot Seton Hall 45.6%-43.1% from the field and 40%-27.6% from three-point land and still only won that game by 2 points on their strong home court.  Xavier was also +8 points from the three throw line which makes their 2-point win look even worse.  The Musketeers are now in a terrible scheduling spot; Xavier will be playing their third consecutive road game while on a 3-game losing streak.  Xavier’s offense is also in poor current form as they’ve averaged just 67 points per game on 43.9% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Seton Hall is also having a solid season; they own a 16-10 SU record, including a terrific 10-2 mark at home.  The Pirates got embarrassed by 22 points (92-70) by Villanova in their last home game.  With a back-to-back home game, and playing with meaningful revenge, we expect a peak performance by the Pirates in this game.  Seton Hall’s defense only gives up 68.9 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 34.9% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Pirates’ offense averages 78.8 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field at home.  We’ll lay the points with Seton Hall in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play SETON HALL (-).

Indiana began the season with a 10-2 SU record, but since then, the Hoosiers have gone just 5-10 SU over their last fifteen games.  Unfortunately for Indiana, they were hit with major injuries to their better players.  James Blackmon Jr and Juwan Morgan both missed multiple games while OG Anunoby suffered a season-ending knee injury.  However, Indiana’s play as of late has been vastly improved.  In fact, three of their last four losses have all come by 5 points or less, so those games could have been wins instead of losses.  Indiana has a very good offense that averages 80.3 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 37.4% shooting from three point-land.  That strong offense will now face a terrible Iowa defense that gives up 77.6 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land.

Iowa comes into this game on a 3-game losing streak, including a 70-66 home loss to Illinois in their last game.  The Hawkeyes’ defense has been their weakness lately as they’ve given up 70 points or more in nine of their last ten games.  Over their last five games, Iowa has allowed 76.2 points per game on 44% shooting from the field.  Iowa’s offense has also gone missing in their last two games.  Against Michigan State and Illinois, the Hawkeyes have scored just 132 total points while shooting just 35.6% (42-118) from the field and 26.2% (11-42) from three-point land.  Iowa is just beginning their slide while Indiana has shown signs of improvement, so we’ll back the Hoosiers in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play INDIANA (+).

Davidson has bounced back from their 3-game losing streak by winning their last two games.  The Wildcats beat George Washington at home, and their last game was a 79-74 win at Massachusetts.  Davidson will now play on the road once again, and tonight’s game at Richmond is one they’ve had circled since losing 82-80 to the Spiders as 11-point home favorites earlier this season.  Davidson played one of their worst defensive games of the season while allowing Richmond to shoot 53.2% (33-62) from the field and 44.4% (12-27) from three-point land.  Don’t expect a repeat performance in tonight’s rematch, especially since Richmond’s offense has averaged just 69 points per game over their last three games.

Richmond comes into tonight’s game on a 2-game losing streak, and we expect another home loss by the Spiders.  Richmond is only 9-5 SU at home this season, so they don’t possess a strong home court advantage.  The Spiders’ defense has been mediocre at home where they are giving up 72.1 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field.  Richmond’s defense is also in terrible current form as they’ve given up 84 and 93 points in their last two games.  Over their last five games, Richmond has allowed 77 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field.  Davidson is simply the better team, and in a revenge spot, we’ll back the Wildcats in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play DAVIDSON (-).

Texas comes into tonight’s game with just a 10-17 SU record on the season, but the Longhorns have been a competitive team.  In fact, eleven of their seventeen losses this season have come by 10 points or less.  One of their close losses came versus West Virginia earlier this season.  Texas gave the Mountaineers all they could handle before losing 74-72 at home as an 11-point underdog.  The Longhorns have been a tough out for West Virginia over the past few years; Texas is 3-2 SU versus the Mountaineers with the two losses coming by just 9 total points.  Texas will once again give West Virginia all they want in tonight’s game, especially since the Longhorns only have four games left to play in their season.

West Virginia opened the season with a 12-1 SU record, but the Mountaineers are just 9-5 SU and 6-8 ATS over their last fourteen games.  West Virginia’s defense is in poor current form; the Mountaineers have given up 71.2 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field and 41.1% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  West Virginia is certainly a good team, but their recent play does not warrant them laying this many points, especially against a competitive Texas team.  This is also a terrible scheduling situation for the Mountaineers as they are coming off back-to-back overtime games, including a grueling double-overtime game just two days ago in which three different starters played at least 41 minutes or more.  West Virginia relies heavily on their pressure defense which makes fatigue more of a factor this evening.  We’ll take the generous points with the Longhorns in this game on Monday night.

10* Play TEXAS (+).

Syracuse comes into tonight’s game at Georgia Tech with a 16-11 SU record on the season.  But 14 of their wins have come on their home court.  Syracuse is off back-to-back close losses with their last being a 76-72 overtime home loss to Louisville.  Now the Orange must hit the road once again and play their third road game over their last four games, and their fourth road game over their last six games overall.  Syracuse’s defense is in terrible current form, and they’ve been awful on the road all season.  Over their last five games, Syracuse’s defense has given up 78.4 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 42.1% shooting from three-point land.  Away from home this season, the Orange are giving up 84.9 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field and 44% shooting from three-point land. 

Georgia Tech returns home off a 70-61 loss at Miami, FL in their last game.  Off that loss and back on their home court, we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since the Yellow Jackets are 13-3 SU at home this season.  Georgia Tech’s defense has been terrific at home all season; the Yellow Jackets are only giving up 61.3 points per game on 36% shooting from the field and 30.6% shooting from three-point land.  Unlike Syracuse, the Yellow Jackets’ defense is in excellent current form.  Over their last five games, Georgia Tech’s defense has only allowed 67.8 points per game on 42.6% shooting from the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll back Georgia Tech in this game on Sunday night.         

10* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

South Carolina comes into tonight’s game at Vanderbilt with a 20-6 SU record on the season.  But the Gamecocks are not playing good basketball right now.  South Carolina is just 1-2 SU over their last three games, and their lone win came by just 4 points against a poor Mississippi State team.  South Carolina lost as 8.5-point home favorites against Arkansas in their last game, and now they must hit the road and lay points at Vanderbilt.  The Gamecocks’ defense is in terrible current form, so they are quite vulnerable in this spot.  Over their last five games, South Carolina’s defense has given up 76.8 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land.

Vanderbilt has plenty of confidence coming into this game after beating Texas A&M 72-67 at home in their last game.  Vanderbilt’s offense has been good at home all season; the Commodores are averaging 77.8 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 40.1% shooting from three-point land.  They’ll take advantage of South Carolina’s defense in this game.  Unlike South Carolina, the Commodores’ defense is in excellent current form.  Over their last five games, Vanderbilt’s defense has only allowed 66.6 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field and 33.7% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll back Vanderbilt in this game on Saturday night.         

9* Play VANDERBILT (+).

Virginia hits the road after losing 65-55 at home to Duke on Wednesday night.  The Cavaliers played their worst offensive game of the season as they shot just 36.8% (21-57) from the field and 25% (5-20) from three-point land.  Off that loss, we expect a peak performance by the Cavaliers tonight, especially since they are now in the underdog role.  Virginia is 4-2 SU off a loss this season with all four wins coming by 16 points or more.  Virginia plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Cavaliers only give up 55.5 points per game on 39.6% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three point-land.  Virginia’s offense has been slightly better on the road where they are averaging 68.7 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 42.6% shooting from three-point land this season.

North Carolina has an impressive 22-5 SU record, and the Tar Heels are certainly one of the most talented teams in the country.  However, they’ve struggled against Virginia in the last few meetings because of their style of play.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play fast to be at their best, but they will not get their preferred pace tonight against a Virginia team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  North Carolina struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, and they are just 2-3 SU against Virginia over the last few years.  The Tar Heels’ two wins came by just 4 points apiece.  Virginia routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so North Carolina’s offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.  We’ll take the points with Virginia in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play VIRGINIA (+).

SMU comes into tonight’s game at Houston with an impressive 23-4 SU record on the season.  However, this is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Mustangs.  SMU will hit the road after winning big back-to-back home games over Cincinnati and Tulane.  The Mustangs’ game against Cincinnati was a revenge spot that had implications on the regular season title.  SMU had to grind in that game and came out with a 60-51 win.  SMU’s next game was an obvious let down spot as 24-point favorites against a bad Tulane team.  The Mustangs trailed that game 42-27 at the half before out-scoring Tulane 53-33 over the final 20 minutes to win 80-75.  That strong offensive outburst by SMU was an anomaly, and since they only play a 6-man rotation, the energy needed to fuel that comeback will leave them empty for tonight’s game, especially since all five starters played 35 minutes or more.

Houston returns home off back-to-back road wins at Tulane and Tulsa.  The Cougars are playing their best basketball of the season right now; they’ve won five consecutive games by 9 points or more.  Houston was embarrassed by SMU earlier this season when they lost by 21 points, so we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since they are playing with revenge.  Houston is 10-3 SU at home where they own a terrific +15.7 point differential on the season.  The Cougars only give up 60.8 points per game on 37.2% shooting from the field and 31.7% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Houston’s offense averages 76.5 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll take the points with Houston in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play HOUSTON (+).

Princeton comes into tonight’s game at Yale on a hot run; the Tigers have won eleven straight games.  Overall, Princeton is 15-6 SU on the season, including a 66-58 home win over Yale earlier this season.  But that game was much closer than the final score indicates.  Princeton actually trailed Yale 54-53 with three minutes left to play, and the Bulldogs were playing without Anthony Dallier who averages 9.6 points on 32 minutes per game.  So even with Yale missing one of their better players, Princeton still trailed the Bulldogs on their strong home court.  That’s not a good sign for the rematch tonight, especially since the Tigers will be playing a fully healthy Yale team with this also being their fourth road game over their last six games overall.

Yale had their 22-game home winning streak snapped in a 75-67 loss to Harvard on Saturday night.  The Bulldogs blew a 36-31 halftime lead after shooting just 18.8% (3-16) from three-point land.  Yale is a very good three-point shooting team, so that performance was an anomaly.  Yale is 8-1 SU at home where they own a solid +11 point differential on the season.  The Bulldogs only give up 68 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Yale’s offense averages 79 points per game on 49.9% shooting from the field and 39.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll take the points with Yale in this game on Friday night.

10* Play YALE (+).

Boston is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Chicago against the Bulls.  The Celtics played last night at home, and they beat the Philadelphia 76ers 116-108.  Boston shot 47.5% (38-80) from the field and 46.4% (13-28) from three-point land.  The Celtics also got to the free throw line 36 times in that game which shows how aggressive their offense was last night.  Boston had six different players score 10 points or more while all six of those guys played 22 minutes or more.  Boston had four starters play 29 minutes or more while three of those guys played 34 minutes or more.  The Celtics will now play on a back-to-back set with travel with this also being their third game in four nights, their fourth game in six nights, and their sixth game in nine nights.

Chicago returned home off a 6-game road trip to beat the Raptors 105-94 on Tuesday night.  The Bulls had last night off, so they are rested and ready for another strong performance tonight.  Chicago’s offense has also been much better at home this season.  The Bulls are averaging 103.2 points per game at home, and they’ve had success against Boston’s defense this season.  Chicago has scored 105 and 100 points on the Celtics in two meetings this season.  Boston’s defense has allowed an average of 105.8 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field over their last five games.  This is simply a bad spot for Boston, so we’ll back Chicago in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play BULLS.

Duke has an impressive 20-5 SU record, but tonight’s game at Virginia is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Blue Devils.  Duke will be playing their first road game since last month, and just their third road game over their last eight games overall.  Duke is a team that needs to play fast to be at their best, but they will not get their preferred pace tonight against a Virginia team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  Duke struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, and they lost 78-69 in their lone road game in which they were held to less than 70 points this season.  Virginia routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Duke’s offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.

Virginia returns home off an overtime loss at Virginia Tech; they blew a 14-point halftime lead.  Off that loss, we expect a peak performance by the Cavaliers tonight.  Virginia is 4-1 SU off a loss this season with all four wins coming by 16 points or more.  Virginia also gave up more than 70 points for just the third time this season.  The Cavaliers are a perfect 2-0 SU in their following games, winning each game by 17 points while holding their opponents to just 62 and 54 points.  Virginia plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Cavaliers only give up 49.8 points per game on 36.1% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three point-land at home.  Duke’s defense gives up 76.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Virginia in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play VIRGINIA (-).

St. John’s comes into tonight’s game at Butler on a hot run; the Red Storm are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS over their last seven games.  Overall, St. John’s is just 12-14 SU on the season, including a 76-73 home win over Butler earlier this season.  St. John’s outshot Butler 54%-45.9% from the field and they were +7 in points from the free throw line yet they only won that game by 3 points on their home court.  It’s highly unlikely the Red Storm will match that production in this game, especially since Butler’s defense is much better at home.  St. John’s defense has been atrocious on the road where they are giving up 81.8 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land this season.

Butler returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 71-65 loss at Providence.   The Bulldogs have also lost their last two home games, so we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since they are playing with revenge.  Butler is 11-2 SU at home where they own a terrific +13.3 point differential on the season.  The Bulldogs only give up 66.5 points per game on 44.2% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Butler’s offense averages 79.8 points per game on 50.6% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with Butler in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play BUTLER (-).

Tennessee comes into tonight’s game at Kentucky with a mediocre 14-11 SU record on the season.  The Volunteers somehow beat Kentucky 82-80 earlier this season, but we expect a non-competitive rematch tonight.  Tennessee outshot Kentucky 46.9%-41.7% from the field and 50%-25% from three-point land and still only won that game by 2 points on their strong home court.  Tennessee is highly unlikely to match that production in tonight’s game, especially since their offense only scored 59 points in their last road game.  In fact, the Vols have scored 70 points or less in half of their conference road games this season, and those games came against inferior opponents compared to the team they’ll face tonight.

Kentucky returns home off a 67-58 win at Alabama.  That was an abnormal game for the Wildcats, especially since it was played at such a slow pace.  Kentucky is 12-2 at home where they always dictate a fast pace, and Tennessee will be more than willing to run with the Wildcats.  That gives Kentucky a tactical advantage, and Tennessee will be unable to trade points with the highly efficient Wildcats offense.  Kentucky is averaging 92.4 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Wildcats’ average win at home has come by 24.3 points per game overall, and by 20 points per game in conference play.  We’ll lay the points with Kentucky in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play KENTUCKY (-).

Golden State is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Denver against the Nuggets.  The Warriors played in their showdown game in Oklahoma City on Saturday night on national TV; Golden State won that game 130-114 with Kevin Durant scoring 34 points against his old team.  The Warriors shot 52.9% (46-87) from the field and 41.9% (13-31) from three-point land.  Golden State’s offense has scored 375 points in their last three games while shooting an incredible 53.2% (133-250) from the field and 46.7% (43-92) from three-point land.  Those numbers are not sustainable, especially since Golden State will be playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  The Warriors will return home after tonight’s game, so this is a prime spot for them to throw in a clunker.

Denver returns home off a 3-game road trip with their last being a 125-109 loss in Cleveland.  The Nuggets had last night off, so they are rested and ready for a peak performance tonight.  Denver’s offense comes into this game in good current form.  Over their last five games, the Nuggets have averaged 110.6 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  Denver’s offense has also been better at home where they are averaging 112.9 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field.  This is a flat spot for Golden State, so we’ll take Denver plus the points in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play NUGGETS (+).

Baylor comes into tonight’s game at Texas Tech with an impressive 22-3 SU record.  However, this is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Bears.  Baylor will be playing their fourth road game over their last six games, and their seventh road game over their last eleven games overall.  Baylor beat Texas Tech 65-61 at home earlier this season, but the Bears got a favorable home whistle in that game as they out-scored the Red Raiders 26-9 from the free throw line.  Baylor had 28 free throw attempts while Texas Tech only got 10 attempts from the line.  Baylor has struggled mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games this season; all three losses have come when they’ve scored less than 70 points.  Texas Tech routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Baylor’s offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.

Texas Tech is having a good season, and they’ll be on the bubble for a ticket to the Big Dance in March.  They lost by a single point to Kansas in their last game, so that makes tonight’s game against Baylor extremely important.  Texas Tech plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Red Raiders only give up 64.6 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field at home this season.  Texas Tech’s offense will face a Baylor defense that has given up 72.3 points per game and 69 total free throw attempts in their last three road games.  We’ll take the points with the Red Raiders in this game on Monday night.

10* Play TEXAS TECH (+).

Nevada is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for today’s game at San Diego State.  The Wolf Pack are 19-5 SU, and they come into this game off their best offense performance of the season.  Nevada crushed in-state rival UNLV by 27 points (104-77) on Wednesday night.  The Wolf Pack shot an incredible 52.8% (38-72) from the field and 52.4% (11-21) from three-point land.  That performance was in stark contrast to their previous game in which they only scored 57 total points in a 17-point loss at Utah State.  It’s highly unlikely Nevada will match their previous game’s production in this game, especially since they’ll be playing against a slow-paced team that will take them out of their comfort zone.

San Diego State returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 76-71 loss at San Jose State.  The Aztecs own a strong +11.2 point differential at home this season.  San Diego State plays at a very slow pace, and they combine that with a stout defense.  The Aztecs’ defense is holding their opponents to just 63.4 points per game on 38.4% shooting from the field and 34.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  Nevada needs to play fast to be at their best, but they won’t get their preferred pace in this game.  We’ll take San Diego State minus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.         

10* Play SAN DIEGO STATE (-).

Cincinnati comes into today’s game at SMU with an impressive 22-2 SU record, including a 66-64 home win over the Mustangs earlier this season.  Cincinnati outshot SMU 46.3%-40% from the field and 46.2%-39.1% from three-point land and still only won that game by 2 points on their strong home court.  Cincinnati made 12 three’s in that game which is an abnormal amount for them, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll match that production in this game.  The Bearcats’ offense is significantly worse on the road where they only average 61.9 points per game on 38.7% shooting from the field and 28.4% shooting from three-point land this season.

SMU is also having a terrific season; they own a 21-4 SU record, including a perfect 14-0 mark at home.  The Mustangs return home off back-to-back road games, and since they are playing with meaningful revenge, we expect a peak performance in this game.  SMU plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Mustangs only give up 55.3 points per game on 36% shooting from the field and 31.9% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  SMU’s offense averages 77.3 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 41.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with SMU in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play SMU (-).

Gonzaga comes into tonight’s game at St. Mary’s with an undefeated 25-0 SU record and the #1 ranking in the country.  The Bulldogs certainly look like one of the best teams in the country, but they are in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game against their conference rival.  Gonzaga will be playing on a back-to-back road set with this also being their fourth road game over their last five games, and their sixth road game over their last nine games overall.  Gonzaga’s offense has also scored 85 points or more in their last four games after shooting a combined 54.8% (125-228) from the field in those games.  It’s highly unlikely the Bulldogs will match that production tonight, especially since they’ll be playing against the slowest-paced team in all of college basketball.

St. Mary’s is 22-2 SU on the season, including 13-1 on their home court.  The Gaels are playing their second consecutive home game, so that gives them a scheduling edge, especially considering Gonzaga has been traveling a lot as noted above.  St. Mary’s owns a strong +17.6 point differential at home this season.  The Gaels play at the slowest pace in the country, and they combine that with a stout defense.  St. Mary’s defense is holding their opponents to just 56.5 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field and 29.6% shooting from three-point land at home.  Gonzaga needs to play fast to be at their best, but they won’t get their preferred pace in this game.  We’ll take St. Mary’s plus the points in this game on Saturday night.          

9* Play ST. MARY’S (+).

William and Mary has been a substantially better team at home this season, going 11-0 SU compared to just 2-11 SU away.  This means the home team is 22-2 SU in all Tribe games this season.  It is not a surprise as William & Mary is a strong offensive team that likes to push the pace and relies heavily on three-point shots.  William & Mary is more comfortable at home as evident by their 93.6 points per game on 55.7% FG shooting, including 45.2% from three-point range this season.  This will be the biggest home game of the year as it is a national TV "Gold Rush" game in which the first 6,000 fans will receive t-shirts and the energy level in the Kaplan Arena will be high.  William & Mary won last year's "Gold Rush" game by 27 points (90-63).

The Tribe also returns home off back-to-back road losses which was preceded by four straight double-digit home wins.  William & Mary blew a 16-point second-half lead at Towson in an 82-80 loss last Saturday and then lost 79-61 two nights ago at Drexel.  It was a major flat spot for William & Mary, especially after just beating the Dragons by 23 points two weeks ago.  The Tribe should bounce back with a solid effort today as head coach Tony Shaver is 23-11 ATS after a SU loss by 15+ points, including 7-1 ATS the past four seasons in that role.  This is also a revenge game for W&M as they lost 77-67 at Charleston last month.  However, William & Mary played that game without their best player, Daniel Dixon, who leads the team with 18.0 ppg and shoots 39% from three-point range this season.  The home team is 7-1 SU/ATS in this series since Charleston joined the CAA three years ago.  This is also a tough scheduling spot for the Cougars as they must travel on one day's rest after blowing a 16-point halftime lead in a 73-72 home loss versus Northeastern on Thursday night.

10* Play WILLIAM & MARY (-).

Kansas comes into today’s game at Texas Tech with an impressive 21-3 SU record.  However, this is another tough scheduling and situational spot for the Jayhawks after beating in-state rival Kansas State 74-71 on Monday night.  Kansas outshot Kansas State 48.2%-38.2% from the field and 47.1%-36.4% from three-point land and still only won that game by 3 points.  Kansas is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Jayhawks struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, so Texas Tech is not a good match-up for them at all.  The Red Raiders routinely play in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Kansas’ offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.

Texas Tech is having a good season, and they’ll be on the bubble for a ticket to the Big Dance in March.  A win over Kansas will be big for their resume, so we expect a peak performance in this game, especially since they return home off a road loss.  Texas Tech plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Red Raiders only give up 63.5 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field at home this season.  Texas Tech’s offense will face a Kansas defense that has given up 77.8 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 42.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll take the points with the Red Raiders in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play TEXAS TECH (+).

San Antonio will continue their 8-game road trip tonight in Detroit.  This will be the Spurs’ third game of the trip; they are 1-1 SU, but 0-2 ATS so far.  San Antonio won 111-103 in Philadelphia on Wednesday night.  The Spurs shot 52.7% (39-74) from the field and 50% (11-22) from three-point land.  San Antonio also hit 88% (22-25) from the free throw line.  All five starters scored in double digits while all twelve players on the roaster scored at least 2 points.  That production will not be duplicated tonight, so the Spurs are in a tough spot, especially since they are laying points on the road.

Detroit will be playing their third consecutive home game, and with last night off, the Pistons are rested and ready for a peak performance tonight.  Detroit is on a 2-game winning streak, and they’ve won four of their last five games overall.  Over their last five games, Detroit’s offense has averaged 110.4 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field.  This isn’t a spot where we expect San Antonio to come with their best performance, and with Detroit in good current form, we’ll take the Pistons plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play PISTONS (+).

Oregon comes into tonight’s game with an impressive 21-3 SU record, and the Ducks certainly look like one of the better teams in the country.  However, Oregon is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at UCLA.  The Ducks have played their last two games at home, and in fact, fifteen of their twenty-one wins this season have come on their home court.  Oregon waxed Arizona 85-58 in their last game after shooting an incredible 65.2% (30-46) from the field and an amazing 64% (16-25) from three-point land.  Oregon’s offense will not repeat that performance tonight, especially since their play on the road has been noticeably worse than at home this season.

UCLA returns home off a 3-game road trip, and since they lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance by the Bruins tonight.  UCLA is 11-1 SU at home where they own an excellent +21.7 point differential this season.  The Bruins are averaging 97 points per game on 54.8% shooting from the field and 44.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  UCLA’s defense is holding their opponents to just 40.8% shooting from the field at home.  UCLA has been waiting for this game since losing 89-87 at Oregon earlier this season; they led that game by 4 points with 20 seconds left before losing.  We’ll lay the points with UCLA in this game on Thursday night.          

9* Play UCLA (-).

Utah is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Dallas against the Mavericks.  The Jazz played in New Orleans last night; they waxed the Pelicans 127-94 in that game.  Utah’s game before that resulted in a 120-95 win against the Hawks in Atlanta.  Utah’s offense has scored 247 points in their last two games while shooting an incredible 57.7% (97-168) from the field, 41.4% (24-58) from three-point land, and 74.4% (29-39) from the free throw line.  Those numbers are not sustainable, especially with travel on a back-to-back set.  Utah will also be playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  Utah will return home after tonight’s game, so this is a prime spot for them to throw in a clunker.

Dallas will be playing their second consecutive home game, and with last night off, the Mavericks will rested and ready for a peak performance tonight, especially since they lost their last home game.  Dallas’ offense has been much better since getting Dirk Nowitzki back on the court.  Over their last five games, the Mavericks have averaged 105 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 39.2% shooting from three-point land.  Dallas has had success this season against Utah’s defense; the Mavericks scored 107 and 100 points in their last two meetings.  This is a flat spot for Utah, so we’ll take Dallas plus the points in this game on Thursday night.     

9* Play MAVERICKS (+).

Philadelphia is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Orlando against the Magic.  The 76ers played at home last night against the Spurs, and they gave San Antonio all they wanted but came up short in a 111-103 loss.  Philadelphia will now play a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their sixth game in nine nights.  Not only that, but the 76ers will also be playing their fifth road game in their last six games overall.  In their loss last night, Philadelphia had three players log over 31 minutes, and eight players overall played 21 minutes or more.  That’s not good for tonight, especially since Philadelphia had to travel without any rest while missing their best player, Joel Embiid, because of an injury. 

Orlando returns home off back-to-back road losses in Atlanta and Houston.  The Magic didn’t have enough offense to compete against those teams, but that will not be the case tonight against Philadelphia.  Orlando had last night off, so they are in a much better scheduling spot than the 76ers.  The Magic will play one of their best offensive games tonight because they’ll be facing a Philadelphia defense that is in terrible current form.  Over their last five games, the 76ers’ defense has given up 112.8 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Orlando in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play MAGIC (-).

California will hit the road after playing their last three games at home.  In fact, the Golden Bears have played five of their last seven games on their home court.  California won all three of their recent home games with the last being a 77-66 win over Colorado.  The Golden Bears beat Arizona State 81-65 earlier this season.  But that game was much closer than the final score indicates.  The Sun Devils actually led 61-60 late in the second half before California ended the game on a 21-4 run.  California shot 52.6% (30-57) from the field and 44% (11-25) from three-point land in that game, and they still trailed Arizona State before rallying back to win.  That’s not a good sign for California tonight in the rematch.

Arizona State returns home off back-to-back road games, and since they lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Sun Devils are averaging 90 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land at home.  Arizona State will face a California defense that is giving up 74.5 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 44.8% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  California is just 2-2 SU on the road in conference play with one of their wins coming by a single point (74-73) at USC.  We’ll take Arizona State plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play ARIZONA STATE (+).

Florida is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for their game tonight in Georgia.  The Gators come in off their big 88-66 home win over Kentucky on Saturday night.  Florida got a complete team effort as four players scored 12 points or more while all ten players scored at least 2 points.  That was Florida’s fourth consecutive strong offensive game; they scored 84 points or more in all four games while shooting a combined 47.5% (123-259) from the field and 44% (48-109) from three-point land.  There’s reason to expect regression from the Gators’ offense tonight, especially since they are in a letdown spot.  Florida beat Georgia 80-76 in overtime earlier this season.  That game was played on Florida’s strong home court, and they trailed Georgia by 8 points late in the second half before rallying back to win.  That’s not a good sign for Florida tonight in the rematch.

Georgia returns home off back-to-back road losses, including a 90-81 overtime loss at Kentucky.  Off those two defeats, the Bulldogs will be primed for a strong bounce back performance tonight, especially since they’ll be playing with legitimate revenge.  Georgia is 9-3 SU at home where their defense has performed much better this season.  The Bulldogs’ defense is holding their opponents to just 66.7 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 31.7% shooting from three-point land at home.  Georgia’s offense is averaging 71.3 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field at home.  We’ll take Georgia plus the points in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play GEORGIA (+).

Kansas comes into tonight’s game at Kansas State with an impressive 20-3 SU record and ranked #3 in the country.  However, this is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Jayhawks.  Kansas beat in-state rival Kansas State 90-88 last month.  That game was played on Kansas’ strong home court, and they shot 53.2% (33-62) from the field and 50% (11-22) from three-point land.  Despite that strong performance, the Jayhawks still only won the game by 2 points at home.  That’s not a good sign for tonight, especially since Kansas will now be playing on the road with this also being their third game in six days, and their third road game over their last five games.  Kansas’ defense has been subpar this season, especially over their last five games.  The Jayhawks have given up 77 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 42.9% shooting from three-point land.

Kansas State returns home off a 56-54 win at Baylor as 7-point underdogs on Saturday.  The Wildcats will bring that momentum home, especially since this will be just their second home over their last five games.  Kansas State is also playing with legitimate revenge, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  Kansas State is 10-2 SU at home where they own a strong +11.4 point differential this season.  The Wildcats are averaging 75.1 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  Kansas State’s defense is holding their opponents to just 63.7 points per game on 41.1% shooting from the field at home.  We’ll take Kansas State plus the points in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play KANSAS STATE (+).

Auburn began the season with a 10-2 SU record.  But since then, the Tigers have gone just 4-6 SU over their last ten games.  Auburn throttled Alabama 84-64 in the first meeting.  The Tigers shot 50% (24-48) from the field and an incredible 61.5% (8-13) from three-point land.  Auburn just had one of those shooting nights, but don’t expect a repeat performance in the rematch.  Auburn is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Tigers struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, so this is not a good match-up for them at all, especially on the road.  In two SEC road games in which they were held to less than 70 points, Auburn is 0-2 SU and ATS while losing by 19 and 29 points.

Alabama returns home off a blowout loss (87-68) at Arkansas on Wednesday night.  Back at home and off that embarrassing loss, we expect a strong bounce back by Alabama tonight, especially since they are playing with legitimate revenge against their in-state rival.  Alabama plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Crimson Tide only give up 61 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the field at home this season.  In eight home games in which they’ve held their opponent to 70 points or less, Alabama is a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  We’ll lay the points with Alabama in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play ALABAMA (-).

Illinois State comes into tonight’s game at Wichita State with an impressive 19-4 SU record, including a 76-62 win over the Shockers last month.  However, Illinois State will be without their second leading scorer in this game.  MiKyle McIntosh averages 13.5 points per game, but he had knee injury and isn’t expected back until later this month.  In the first meeting against Wichita State, McIntosh scored 20 points on 77.8% shooting from the field.  Without him on the floor, depth-shy Illinois State will fine the going much tougher on Wichita State’s strong home floor.  The Redbirds’ offense has been in poor current form as well as they are only averaging 67.6 points per game on 44.5% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Wichita State is 20-4 SU on the season, including 12-1 on their home court.  The Shockers return home off back-to-back road games, and with legitimate revenge, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Wichita State owns an incredible +26.7 point differential at home this season.  The Shockers are averaging 88.4 points per game on 50.1% shooting from the field and 39.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  Wichita State’s defense is holding their opponents to just 61.7 points per game on 37.6% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land at home.  Wichita State beat Illinois State by 16 points at home last season, and we expect more of the same tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Shockers.      

10* Play WICHITA STATE (-).

Orlando is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Atlanta against the Hawks.  The Magic played at home last night against the Raptors, and they won that game 102-94.  Orlando will now play a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their sixth game in nine nights.  Not only that, but the Magic will also be playing their fourth road game in their last six games overall.  In their win last night, Orlando had four players log over 31 minutes, and six players overall played 28 minutes or more.  That’s not good for tonight, especially since Orlando also had to travel without any rest.

Atlanta returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a big comeback win in the fourth quarter in Houston on Wednesday night.  Atlanta had last night off, so they are in a much better scheduling spot than Orlando.  The Hawks’ offense is in good current form as they’ve averaged 110.6 points per game over their last five games.  Atlanta will now face an Orlando defense that has given up 108.8 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 42.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play HAWKS (-).

Gonzaga comes into tonight’s game at BYU with an undefeated 22-0 SU record and the #1 ranking in the country.  The Bulldogs certainly look like one of the best teams in the nation, but they are in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  Gonzaga will be playing on a back-to-back road set with this also being their sixth road game over their last ten games overall.  Gonzaga’s offense also scored 96 points after shooting 58.6% (41-for-70) from the field in their last game.  It’s highly unlikely the Bulldogs will match that production tonight, especially since they’ll be playing in altitude against a BYU team that holds one of the strongest home court advantages in all of college basketball.

BYU is 16-7 SU on the season, including 12-1 on their strong home court.  The Cougars are playing their second consecutive home game, so that gives them a scheduling edge, especially considering Gonzaga has been traveling a lot as noted above.  BYU owns an incredible +16.1 point differential at home this season.  The Cougars are averaging 86.9 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  BYU’s defense is holding their opponents to just 37.7% shooting from the field and 26.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  Nick Emery is listed as questionable, but it has already been factored into the line and the Cougars are a deep team with Eric Mika being the key player.   BYU has given Gonzaga fits in the last three meetings, and we expect more of the same tonight, so we’ll take the Cougars plus the points in this game on Thursday night.          

10* Play BYU (+).

Iowa is 12-10 SU on the season, but eleven of those wins have come on their home court.  The Hawkeyes are 0-5 SU in true road games, and just 1-2 SU in neutral court games.  Iowa played without their best player, Peter Jok (back), in their last game.  The Hawkeyes beat Ohio State 85-72 after shooting 50% (32-64) from the field and 43.5% (10-23) from three-point land.  Iowa usually starts four freshman alongside Jok, and off such a big offensive performance, we expect regression tonight, especially on the road.  Overall, Iowa’s offense is only averaging 70.6 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 28.1% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  The Hawkeyes only scored 68 points in a 6-point home win over Rutgers earlier this season.  Jok scored 18 of those points, but he is listed as questionable tonight with back spasms.  If Iowa couldn’t generate much offense at home against Rutgers, it’s hard to imagine the Hawkeyes having much success in tonight’s game, with or without Jok.              

Rutgers is also 12-10 SU on the season with nine of their wins coming on their home court.  The Scarlet Knights are primed for a peak performance, especially since their two home losses have come during their last five games.  Rutgers gave Iowa all they could handle earlier this season, and in fact, the Scarlet Knights led that game by 9 points in the second half while holding the Hawkeyes to zero made shots over an 8 minute stretch.  Rutgers has played exceptional defense all season; the Scarlet Knights are only giving up 61.6 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  Iowa’s defense is giving up 87.8 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field and 44.1% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll back Rutgers in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play RUTGERS (+).

Creighton was well on their way to having a terrific season, but unfortunately they lost their best player (Maurice Watson Jr.) to a season-ending knee injury.  Watson was the engine that made Creighton’s offense run efficiently and smoothly.  The Bluejays have played three game since losing Watson; they’ve gone 1-2 SU with their lone win coming at home over an inferior DePaul team in their last game.  Creighton is now in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Butler.  The Bluejays beat Butler 75-64 at home earlier this season, but they were catching the Bulldogs at the perfect time.  Butler was off back-to-back draining games; a win over #1 Villanova and an overtime win at Georgetown.  Creighton is now the team in a bad spot for the rematch, especially after their offense scored 83 points on 55.8% (29-52) shooting from the field against DePaul.

Butler comes into tonight’s game off a home loss to Georgetown on Saturday night.  That was the Bulldogs first home loss of the season, and it coincided with their worst defensive performance of the season.  Butler gave up 85 points on 63.8% (30-47) shooting from the field and 50% (10-20) shooting from three-point land.  That’s abnormal for Butler considering they only give up 65.8 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 32.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  Overall, Butler is 11-1 SU at home where they own an excellent +15.0 point differential on the season.  The Bulldogs’ offense is averaging 80.8 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field and 36.9% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  We’ll lay the points with Butler in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play BUTLER (-).

Indiana began the season with a 10-2 SU record.  But since then, the Hoosiers have gone just 4-5 SU over their last nine games.  Indiana is now without their best player after James Blackmon hurt his leg in their last game.  Blackmon is Indiana’s best offensive player; he took 28.4% of the shots while scoring 307 points, the most on the team.  Indiana is also without OG Anunoby after he recently suffered a season-ending knee injury.  Indiana is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Hoosiers struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, so this is not a good match-up for them at all, especially without their best offensive player.  Northwestern routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Indiana will be hard-pressed to score points.

Northwestern is having a terrific season, and they’ll be on the verge of getting their elusive ticket to the Big Dance in March.  This is an important conference game for the Wildcats, especially since this is just their third home game over the last three weeks.  Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Wildcats only give up 62.4 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field and 29.0% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Northwestern’s offense will face an Indiana defense that gives up 81.4 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Sunday night. 

10* Play NORTHWESTERN (-).

This is a difficult scheduling situation for Oregon as they must play their second straight road game in just three days in thin air and altitude.  The Ducks played in Utah on Thursday night and now travel to Colorado for this game.  Oregon has been a weaker team on the road this season, winning their games by -15 points less than at home.  The Ducks have previously struggled in the thin air and altitude of Colorado, losing every road game there the past four years, going 0-4 SU with an average loss by -9.3 points per game.  Contrast that to the fact that Oregon is 6-0 SU in all the other head-to-head meetings which weren't played in Colorado and you can see what a difference the thin air and altitude makes.

Colorado is just 11-10 SU this season, but they have been competitive with each of their past three losses coming by 3 points or less, including a pair of overtime losses on the road.  The Buffaloes bounced back with a home win versus OregonState on Thursday and Colorado should carry that momentum into this home game tonight.  Overall, the Buffaloes are 8-3 SU at home this season.  This is a terrible scheduling situation for Oregon in a back-to-back altitude set, so we'll take the points with the Buffaloes as a home underdog tonight.

10* Play COLORADO (+).

Oklahoma snapped their 7-game losing streak with an 84-75 home win over Texas Tech two weeks ago and followed that up with an 89-87 overtime win at West Virginia as a +16.5 point underdog.  Oklahoma has also been competitive in their past two losses which came in double-overtime and by just one point at Texas.  Overall, the Sooners are 3-1 ATS in their past four games and they remain an underrated team.  The Sooners played a brutal schedule during their earlier losing streak with games against Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Wichita State, and Wisconsin.  The Sooners were also playing short-handed as leading scorer Jordan Woodard missed most of those games with an injury while Kameron McGusty was limited by injury as well.

Florida has been an inconsistent team this season and enters just 1-3 ATS in their past four games.  They might also be without their second leading scorer, Canyon Barry, who is questionable with an ankle injury.  Barry is averaging 12.4 points per game this season.  The Gators were able to beat a bad LSU team without Barry on Wednesday, but Florida struggled when he was injured two games ago versus Vanderbilt as the Gators lost outright as an -11.5 point home favorite.  Florida is in a poor scheduling spot today, while Oklahoma remains an underrated team, so we'll back the Sooners as a home underdog in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play OKLAHOMA (+).

Tennessee enters this game off back-to-back home wins including an 82-80 upset win versus Kentucky earlier this week as a +10.5 point underdog.  However, those two wins now put the Volunteers in a flat spot for this non-conference home game today.  Tennessee shot 47% from the field (61-for-131) in their past two games, but they are likely to regress this afternoon.  The Vols are only averaging 44.4% FG in all games this season and will now be facing a strong Kansas State defense that is permitting just 64.7 points per game on 41.0% FG shooting this season (versus opponents that average 74.7 ppg and 44.7% FG).  Before their past two wins, Tennessee started the season just 1-5 ATS at home.

Kansas State will be focused for this game after a 70-65 road loss at Iowa State on Tuesday.  The difference in that game was a substantial discrepancy from three-point range as the Cyclones shot 11-for-23 (48%) while the Wildcats shot just 7-for-23 (30%). Kansas State is still 15-5 SU this season and they should shoot better today as they average 37.8% from three-point range, including 38.0% on the road.  The Wildcats also have a solid revenge motive after a close 65-64 loss on this same court two seasons ago. Tennessee is due for a regression, while Kansas State is primed for a strong bounce back effort, so we'll back the Wildcats in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play KANSAS STATE.

Memphis will hit the road after beating Toronto 101-99 at home on Wednesday night.  That game was not as close as the final score indicates, but after an ugly 14-point fourth quarter, the Grizzlies, who led by double digits, had to hold on for the win.  Memphis got fatigued late after having the previous three days off, so they’ll be better conditioned to play a full 48 minutes tonight.  Memphis plays at an extremely slow pace and they combine that with an excellent defense.  The Grizzlies are only giving up 99.4 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 33.7% shooting from three-point land.  In two previous meetings against Portland this season, the Grizzlies have held the Blazers to just 186 total points on just 37.3% (57-153) shooting from the field and 34.4% (21-61) shooting from three-point land.

Portland comes into tonight’s game on a 2-game winning streak after losing their previous four games.  However, the Trail Blazers have been an inconsistent team this season, and most of their success has come against lesser teams that like to play their style of basketball.  Portland prefers up-tempo basketball, and when unable to play fast, the Trail Blazers struggle mightily on the offensive end of the court.  Portland matches up poorly against Memphis in terms of pace, but the Memphis roster is also bad for the Trail Blazers.  Portland has no answer for Marc Gasol in the middle, and Mike Conley and Tony Allen torture Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum with ferocious defense.  Portland is just 2-10 SU this season when held to less than 100 points, including 0-1 against Memphis in that situation.  We’ll back the Grizzlies in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play GRIZZLIES.

Oregon comes into tonight’s game with an impressive 18-2 SU record, and the Ducks certainly look like one of the better teams in the country.  However, Oregon is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Utah.  The Ducks have played their last three games at home, and in fact, thirteen of their eighteen wins this season have come on their home court.  Oregon is 2-1 SU in true road games, but their two conference away games have come against two of the worst teams in the Pac 12 (Washington and Washington State).  Oregon has been playing without their best player, Dillon Brooks (foot), over the last few games.  He is listed as a game-time decision tonight, and if he doesn’t play, it’s hard to imagine the Ducks leaving Utah with a win.

Utah is 14-5 SU on the season, including 9-2 on their home court.  The Utes return home off back-to-back road wins which were preceded by an 83-82 home loss to UCLA.  The Utes are playing at a much faster pace this season, and they will definitely get their preferred pace against an up-tempo Oregon team.  Utah owns an incredible +15.1 point differential at home this season.  The Utes are averaging 83.7 points per game on 50.8% shooting from the field at home this season.  Utah’s defense is holding their opponents to just 68.6 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  Utah has been waiting for this game since losing 88-57 to Oregon in the Pac 12 championship game last season, so we’ll back the Utes in this game on Thursday night.          

10* Play UTAH (-).

Toronto is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Memphis against the Grizzlies.  The Raptors played at home last night against the Spurs, and they lost that game 108-106 despite San Antonio missing their best player, Kawhi Leonard.  Toronto will now play a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their sixth game in nine nights.  Not only that, but the Raptors will be playing their fourth road game in their last six games overall.  Toronto is also playing without their leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (ankle) who averages 27.9 points per game.  In their loss last night, Toronto had two starters play over 39 minutes, including Kyle Lowry who logged over 41 minutes.  That’s not good for tonight, especially since Lowry is the go-to scorer without DeRozan on the court.

Memphis lost their last home game in embarrassing fashion; the Rockets beat the Grizzlies by 24 points (119-95).  Memphis has had three full days off since that loss, so they’ll be primed for a peak performance tonight.  The Grizzlies have played much better basketball at home than on the road this season.  Memphis is 15-9 SU at home while just 11-11 SU on the road.  Aside from their last game against the Rockets, the Grizzlies’ defense has been fantastic at home this season.  Memphis is only giving up 94.8 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 32.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  Toronto is just 2-7 SU this season when held to less than 100 points.  We’ll lay the points with Memphis in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play GRIZZLIES (-).

Kansas is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at West Virginia ranked #1 in the country with an 18-1 record.  The Jayhawks have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Mountaineers is simply a bad matchup for Kansas.  In their last six meetings against West Virginia, the Jayhawks are just 2-4 SU, including 0-3 SU on the road.  Kansas will be playing their third road game over their last five games while stepping way up in class.  Kansas will also face 40 minutes of pressure from the Mountaineers who employ a relentless full-court press; the Jayhawks have yet to face a similar team this season.  West Virginia is #1 in the country in both steals and turnover percentage meaning they force their opponents into a lot of mistakes.  That has been a recipe for disaster for Kansas in recent meetings, and we expect more of the same tonight.

West Virginia returns home off a 79-75 loss at Kansas State on Saturday.  The Mountaineers also lost their previous home game to Oklahoma as 16.5-point favorites.  Off back-to-back poor efforts, we expect a peak performance by the Mountaineers tonight.  West Virginia is 10-1 SU at home where they own record an incredible +31.3 point differential on the season.  West Virginia’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 63.1 points per game on 40.7% shooting from the field and 29.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Mountaineers’ offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 94.4 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field.  West Virginia matches-up extremely well with Kansas, so we’ll back the Mountaineers in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play WEST VIRGINIA (-).

Houston is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Milwaukee against the Bucks.  The Rockets will be playing their third game in four nights, their fifth game in seven nights, and their ninth game in fourteen nights.  Not only that, but the Rockets will also be playing their seventh road game in their last eleven games overall.  Houston has done a lot of traveling while playing in multiple time zones, and their recent schedule will catch up to them at some point.  Houston comes into this game off a 119-95 blowout win in Memphis.  That game was preceded by a 125-108 home loss to Golden State.  So while the Rockets were able to snap back right away after their embarrassing loss to the Warriors, there’s reason to believe they’ll take the Bucks lightly tonight, especially since they just beat them by 19 points (111-92) five days ago.  

Milwaukee is on a 5-game losing streak, but four of those five games were on the road.  Their lone home loss during that stretch came against the Philadelphia 76ers who happen to be one of the hottest teams in the league.  Milwaukee returns home for tonight’s game against Houston, and they’ve had a day to prepare.  The Bucks recently held a team meeting because of their poor play, so if they are ever going to have a peak performance, it will be tonight.  Milwaukee owns 12 wins on their home court where their offense has played significantly better.  The Bucks are averaging 108.8 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 38.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is a flat spot for Houston, so we’ll take the points with Milwaukee in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play BUCKS (+).

Green Bay has been one of the hottest teams down the stretch as they are on an 8-game winning streak.  Unfortunately for the Packers’ offense, they lost wide receiver Jordy Nelson to a rib injury prior to their last game, and wide receiver Davante Adams injured his ankle in last week’s game.  They will likely give it a go today, but Nelson and Adams are Green Bay’s top two receivers, and their lack of health and possible ineffectiveness will make things that much harder for quarterback Aaron Rodgers in this game.  The Packers will also be playing their third road game in four weeks, and after last week’s emotional late win in Dallas, the team may not have much left to beat another excellent opponent.  The Packers’ defense has been their weakness all season, especially on the road where they are giving up 28.6 points per game on 6.7 yards per play while allowing a horrible 8.3 yards per pass.

Atlanta’s offense was explosive all season, and the Falcons will once again have a terrific offensive game.  Atlanta is averaging 33.9 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 23.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Falcons’ offense was even better at home where they averaged 35.1 points per game on a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Atlanta’s offense hung 33 points on the Packers’ defense in an earlier season meeting, and since Green Bay has given up 24 points or more in their last three road games, there’s no reason the Falcons won’t match the production of the first meeting.  Five of Atlanta’s six home wins this season have come by 6 points or more, so we’ll lay the points with the Falcons in the NFC Championship game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play FALCONS (-).

South Carolina is having a terrific season as they come into this game at Kentucky with a 15-3 SU record.  Two of South Carolina’s three losses have come by just 3 and 2 points, so they’ve proven to be a tough out for their opponents.  South Carolina plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Gamecocks have held sixteen of their eighteen opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Overall, South Carolina’s defense is only giving up 59.2 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the field and 26.7% shooting from three-point land this season.  Their defense has traveled well as they only allow 64.2 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 28.6% shooting from three-point land on the road.

Kentucky is 16-2 SU on the season, and the Wildcats are certainly one of the best and most talented teams in the country.  Kentucky is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Wildcats have played at their preferred play in every game this season except against Louisville; they lost that game 73-70.  Kentucky has had a history of struggling mightily when forced to play half court basketball in slow-paced games, so this is not a good match-up for them at all.  South Carolina routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Kentucky will be put out of their comfort zone.  South Carolina has the better defense, and since we expect them to disrupt Kentucky with their pace of play, we’ll take the points with the Gamecocks on Saturday night. 

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (+).

Michigan State comes into this game at Indiana off a 72-67 loss at Ohio State.  However, the Spartans have had five full days to get over that loss and prepare for Indiana.  The Spartans have been terrific when playing off a loss this season; they are 5-1 SU in that role.  Head coach Tom Izzo is one of the best at game planning for an opponent, so expect Michigan State to be primed for a peak performance in this game.  Michigan State’s defense has been tremendous recently.  The Spartans have given up just 61.6 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field and 32.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  That’s a major difference from Indiana’s defense which has allowed 72.4 points per game on 44% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Indiana began the season with a 10-2 SU record.  But since then, the Hoosiers have gone just 3-4 SU over their last seven games.  Indiana was without Juwan Morgan (foot) in their last game, and according to head coach Tom Crean, Morgan is “very doubtful” to play in this game.  Indiana also lost OG Anunoby to a season-ending knee injury in their last game.  Anunoby and Morgan are two starters that are key ingredients to Indiana’s success, and without either on the court, it’s hard to envision the Hoosiers having enough to beat Michigan State by margin.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Michigan State plus the points on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (+).

Iowa State comes into this game at Oklahoma on a 2-game losing streak, and we expect another loss for the Cyclones.  Iowa State has an 11-6 SU record on the season, but the Cyclones are just 1-3 SU in true road games, including 1-2 in conference road games.  Iowa State’s wins have mostly come against inferior teams like Savannah State, Mount St. Mary’s, The Citadel, Nebraska Omaha, and Mississippi Valley State just to name a few.  Iowa State’s defense has given up 170 total points in their two conference road games this season.  Overall, the Cyclones’ defense is allowing 78.2 points per game on 50.6% shooting from the field away from home this season.

Oklahoma snapped their 7-game losing streak with an 84-75 home win over Texas Tech last Saturday night.  The Sooners followed that up with an 89-87 overtime win at West Virginia on Wednesday night.  We had Best Bet selections on Oklahoma in both of those games, and we’ll come right back and play them once again in this game.  The Sooners played a brutal schedule during their losing streak with games against Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Wichita State, and Wisconsin.  The Sooners were also playing short-handed as leading scorer Jordan Woodard missed most of those games with an injury while Kameron McGusty was limited by injury as well.  Oklahoma’s recent play has been much improved, so we’ll back the Sooners in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play OKLAHOMA.

Memphis has a winning 13-5 SU record on the season, but the Tigers have played just four true road games so far this season.  Memphis is 2-2 SU in those games with one of those wins coming  in overtime against a short-handed Oklahoma team last month.  Memphis has padded their record with wins over inferior teams like Texas Rio Grande Valley, Savannah State, McNeese State, Jackson State, and Incarnate Word to name a few.  Aside from holding a terrible Tulane team to just 59 points on the road, Memphis has given up 260 total points in their other three road games.  Overall, the Tigers’ defense is allowing 79.8 points per game away from home this season.

Houston returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 77-70 loss at Central Florida.  They also lost their previous home game before going out on the road, so we expect a peak performance tonight by the Cougars.  Houston owns a strong +17.9 point differential at home where they are 7-2 SU.  The Cougars’ offense is averaging 77.9 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field at home.  Houston’s defense is only allowing 60 points per game on 36.7% shooting from the field on their home court.  We’ll lay the points with Houston in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play HOUSTON (-).

Oklahoma snapped their 7-game losing streak with an 84-75 home win over Texas Tech on Saturday night.  The Sooners had excuses for losing seven straight games.  They played a brutal schedule during that stretch with games against Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Wichita State, and Wisconsin.  The Sooners were also playing short-handed as leading scorer Jordan Woodard missed most of those games with an injury.  He has since returned for Oklahoma’s last two games.  Oklahoma also has Kameron McGusty back on the court fully healthy: “I'm 100 percent and have come back to my quick first step and being able to move and be active on the ball.”  Oklahoma’s losing streak can easily be forgiven, and their recent play has been much improved.  

West Virginia caught everybody by surprise when they opened the season with a 12-1 SU record.  The Mountaineers were steamrolling their opponents in those games, but that hasn’t been the case recently.  West Virginia is 3-1 SU, but just 1-3 ATS over their last four games.  The point- spreads have clearly been inflated in their recent games because of their early success, and that’s certainly the case tonight as 17-point favorites over Oklahoma.  West Virginia is averaging 80.3 points per game over their last four games.  That’s 14.8 points per game less than their seasonal average of 95.1 points per game.  West Virginia is certainly a good team, but their recent play does not warrant them laying this many points, especially against an improving Oklahoma team.  We’ll take the generous points with the Sooners in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play OKLAHOMA (+).

Denver is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Los Angeles against the Lakers.  The Nuggets played in London last Thursday; they waxed the Pacers 140-112 in that game.  Denver’s last game was at home last night, and they beat Orlando 125-112.  Denver expended a lot of energy in winning that game.  The Nuggets had four of their five starters play 33 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 35 minutes or more.  Denver’s bench also had three reserves play 20 minutes or more.  Overall, six players scored in double digits, but it was costly as Gary Harris re-injured his ankle and Kenneth Faried logged a season-high in minutes played.  Denver’s offense has scored 265 points in their last two games while shooting an incredible 57.8% (104-180) from the field, 40.7% (24-59) from three-point land, and 86.8% (33-38) from the free throw line.  Those numbers are not sustainable, especially with travel on a back-to-back set.

Los Angeles is on a 4-game losing streak, but the Lakers have played a brutal schedule as of late.  The Lakers lost to the Trail Blazers, Spurs, Clippers, and Pistons.  Los Angeles is taking a step-down in class tonight against the Nuggets, and with a day of rest after a home loss, we expect a peak performance by the Lakers tonight.  Los Angeles’ offense has been much better at home this season.  The Lakers are averaging 108.2 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  Los Angeles will take advantage of a Denver defense that has given up 118.4 points per game on 50.9% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This is a flat spot for Denver, so we’ll back Los Angeles in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play LAKERS (+).

Cleveland comes into tonight’s game at Golden State on their final leg of a 6-game road trip.  The Cavaliers snapped a 2-game losing streak with a 120-108 win in Sacramento on Friday night.  Cleveland was scheduled to give their big three (LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love) this game off for rest, but now they are playing.  There’s reason to believe Cleveland was told to play their guys by the league, and if so, the team could mail this game in to spite that order.  This is also a bad scheduling and situational spot for Cleveland.  As mentioned above, they are on the end of a long trip while playing against an elite opponent that is well-rested and extremely focused on this game.

Golden State is 34-6 SU, including 18-3 on their home court this season.  The Warriors are in excellent current form; they are 7-1 in their last eight games with their lone loss coming in overtime after blowing an 18-point lead with less than 8 minutes to play.  Golden State’s other seven wins came by an average of 11.1 points per game.  The Warriors come into this game on three full days of rest, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for Cleveland.  Golden State has had this game circled since losing 109-108 to the Cavaliers on Christmas day.  The Warriors led that game by 14 points in the fourth quarter on Cleveland’s home court; don’t expect that to happen at home.  Golden State is averaging 120.9 points per game on 51.5% shooting from the field and 41.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is a much bigger game for Golden State than Cleveland, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Pittsburgh was one of the hottest teams coming into the playoffs, and after last week’s 30-12 home win over Miami, the Steelers are on an 8-game winning streak.  Pittsburgh’s offense has been outstanding recently as they’ve scored 24 points or more in nine consecutive games.  Overall, the Steelers’ offense is averaging 25.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s defense got much better as the season went on, and in fact, the Steelers have held six of their last eight opponents to 20 points or less.  Overall, the Steelers’ defense is only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play on the road this season.  

Kansas City began the season at just 2-2, but since their bye week they’ve gone 10-2 SU.  However, only three of those wins came against playoff teams, and two of those wins were against the Raiders.  The Chiefs’ offense was also fortunate in facing a slew of terrible defenses during that stretch.  That won’t be the case tonight against the tough and physical Pittsburgh defense.  Kansas City’s offense has barely played above average football this season.  The Chiefs are averaging 24.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Kansas City finished their season by scoring 70 total points against the Broncos and Chargers.  Prior to those two games, the Chiefs scored 21 points or less in five of their previous seven games.  Pittsburgh is simply the better team, so we’ll take the Steelers plus the points in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play STEELERS (+).

Texas Tech is having a much better season than expected under new head coach Chris Beard.  The Red Raiders come into tonight’s game at Oklahoma with a 13-3 SU record.  However, Texas Tech is just 1-2 SU in true road games, including 0-2 in conference road games.  The Red Raiders’ wins have mostly come against inferior teams like Houston Baptist, North Texas, Eastern Kentucky, Idaho State, Incarnate Word, Nicholls State, and Longwood just to name a few.  Texas Tech’s defense has given up 220 total points in their three true road games this season.  Overall, the Red Raiders’ defense is allowing 73.3 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field away from home this season.

Oklahoma is desperate for a win after losing their last seven games.  However, the Sooners played a brutal schedule during that stretch with games against Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Wichita State, and Wisconsin.  The Sooners were also playing short-handed as leading scorer Jordan Woodard missed most of those games with an injury.  He returned for Oklahoma’s last game, and all reports indicate he’s back to full strength.  Oklahoma also has Kameron McGusty back on the court fully healthy: “I'm 100 percent and have come back to my quick first step and being able to move and be active on the ball.”  Oklahoma’s recent losing streak can easily be forgiven, and we expect their best game in a long while.  We’ll back the Sooners in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play OKLAHOMA (+).

UCLA comes into tonight’s game with an impressive 17-1 SU record, and the Bruins certainly look like one of the most talented team in the country.  However, UCLA is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Utah.  The Bruins just won 104-89 at Colorado on Thursday night.  Now they are on the dreaded back-to-back altitude road set, and Pac 12 teams have been awful in this situation over the last few years.  UCLA also played one of their best offensive games of the season in Colorado while scoring 104 points on 56.5% (35-62) shooting from the field and 61.3% (19-31) shooting from three-point land.  The Bruins will be hard-pressed to match that production, especially considering the poor scheduling spot they are in.

Utah is 12-4 SU on the season, including 9-1 on their home court.  Their lone home loss came to Butler in an extremely slow-paced game.  The Utes are playing at a much faster pace this season, so they will definitely get their preferred pace against an up-tempo UCLA team.  Utah owns an incredible +17.1 point differential at home this season.  The Utes are averaging 83.9 points per game on 50.3% shooting from the field at home this season.  Utah’s defense is holding their opponents to just 66.8 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Utah’s biggest game of the season to date, so we’ll back the Utes in this game on Saturday night.          

9* Play UTAH (+).

Oklahoma City comes into tonight’s game in Minnesota on a 3-game winning streak.  However, this is a bad scheduling and situational spot for Oklahoma City.  The Thunder’s winning streak began with a 121-106 home win over Denver after losing three straight games on the road.  They hit the road in their next game and won 109-94 in Chicago.  Oklahoma City played their last game at home, and that resulted in a 103-95 win over Memphis on national TV.  Now the Thunder will hit the road once again; this will be their eight road game in their last twelve games overall.  Prior to their last road win, Oklahoma City had gone 1-4 SU in their previous five road games while giving up 113.3 points per game in their four losses.

Minnesota is playing good basketball right now.  The Timberwolves are just 7-8 SU over their last fifteen games, but seven of their eight losses have come by 7 points or less with five of those losses coming by 4 points or less; their average loss has come by just 4.6 points per game.  Minnesota just snapped Houston’s 9-game winning streak with a dominating 119-105 win on Wednesday night, and we expect another strong performance tonight against the Thunder.  Minnesota’s offense has been much better at home this season.  The Timberwolves are averaging 104.9 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  This is a flat spot for Oklahoma City, so we’ll take Minnesota plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Washington State has a winning 9-6 SU record on the season, but the Cougars are not a very good team.  Washington State’s wins have mostly come against inferior teams like Montana State, Central Washington, Montana, Utah Valley, and Sacramento State to name a few.  The Cougars are 2-1 SU in conference play, but one of those wins came unexpectedly as 12.5-point road underdogs at in-state rival Washington.  Washington State’s other conference win came against Oregon State who is one of the worst teams in the Pac 12.  The Cougars’ defense has given up 247 total points in three true road games this season.  Overall, Washington State’s defense is allowing 74 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field away from home this season.

Stanford is desperate for a win after losing their last four games.  However, the Cardinal played four of the best teams in the conference in those games, so the losses were not unexpected.  Stanford also lost leading scorer Reid Travis to a shoulder injury two games ago, so the team was  also learning to play without him.  Stanford returns home off back-to-back road losses, and since they also lost their last two home games, we expect a peak performance tonight by the Cardinal.  Stanford’s offense has scored 79 points or more in three of their last four home games, and they get an easy matchup tonight against Washington State’s poor defense.  Stanford’s defense is also taking a major step-down in offensive class, so expect that unit to play one of their best games of the season.  We’ll lay the points with the Cardinal in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play STANFORD (-).

Butler is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Creighton.  The Bulldogs beat #1 Villanova 66-58 as home underdogs last Wednesday night, and then they were extremely fortunate in winning at Georgetown as road favorites in overtime on Saturday afternoon.  Butler trailed that game with just 9 seconds to play before forcing overtime.  So off back-to-back big games, the Bulldogs will be on the road once again while stepping up in class from their last game.  Butler shot 50% (10-20) from three-point land against Georgetown, and they still needed overtime to win.  The Bulldogs were also +10 points (25-15) from the free throw line in that game.  That’s a bad sign for Butler heading into this game, so we expect a clunker from the Bulldogs tonight.

Creighton returns home off back-to-back road wins at St. John’s and at Providence.  The Bluejays are 15-1 SU on the season, including 9-1 on their home court.  Creighton’s lone home loss came in their last home game against Villanova, so we expect a strong bounce back effort in front of their fans tonight.  Creighton’s offense has been terrific at home this season as they are averaging 84.8 points per game on 52.8% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land.  Creighton is catching Butler at the perfect time, and we expect a statement win by the Bluejays, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play CREIGHTON (-).

Houston comes into tonight’s game in Minnesota on a 9-game winning streak.  However, this is a terrible scheduling and situational spot for Houston.  The Rockets played at home last night and they beat Charlotte 121-114.  Houston expended a lot of energy in winning that game.  The Rockets had four of their five starters play 32 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 35 minutes or more.  Houston’s bench also had two reserves play 20 minutes or more.  Overall, six players scored in double digits while the team shot 48.8% (40-82) from the field and 43.6% (17-39) from three-point land.  Houston’s offense has scored 250 points in their last two games, but that isn’t sustainable, especially on a back-to-back set with travel while also playing their third game in four days.

Minnesota is playing good basketball right now.  The Timberwolves are just 6-8 SU over their last fourteen games, but seven of their eight losses have come by 7 points or less with five of those losses coming by 4 points or less; their average loss has come by just 4.6 points per game.  Minnesota gave Houston all they could handle in their last meeting; the Timberwolves lost by just 2 points in overtime.  Minnesota’s offense has been much better at home this season.  The Timberwolves are averaging 104.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  This is a flat spot for Houston, so we’ll take Minnesota plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Mississippi State is having a good season so far as they come into tonight’s game at Arkansas with a 10-4 record.  The Bulldogs played their best game of the season on Saturday afternoon when they beat LSU 95-78.  Mississippi State shot an incredible 54.1% (33-61) from the field and 50% (11-22) from three-point land.  Five players scored in double digits while nine players overall scored points in the game.  That performance was in stark contrast to their previous game where they scored just 58 points in a 10-point home loss to Alabama.  Three of Mississippi State’s four losses this season have come by 10 points or more, and tonight they will face the best team they’ve seen so far this season. 

Arkansas is 12-3 SU, including 9-1 at home this season.  The Razorbacks return home off back-to-back road games with their last being an ugly 97-71 loss at Kentucky.  Arkansas also lost their previous home game, so we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  The Razorbacks have been terrific at home where they own a +13.8 point differential on the season.  Arkansas’ offense is averaging 83.7 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land.  Arkansas’ defense is holding opponents to 69.9 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with the Razorbacks in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play ARKANSAS (-).

Clemson and Alabama will meet once again for the National Title; the Crimson Tide won 45-40 last year.  Clemson had a surprising season by going 13-1.  The Tigers were projected to regress after losing a lot of talent from last year’s 14-1 team.  Clemson certainly has a terrific team, but this is a poor matchup for them against Alabama.  Clemson’s offense faced defenses that gave up 26.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Tigers will now face an Alabama defense that only gave up 11.4 points per game on 3.9 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 30.2 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide defense was also stout away from home where they gave up just 16 points per game on 4.1 yards per play.  While it’s true Clemson gave Alabama all they could handle in last year’s game, the Tigers still trailed by 12 points with less than 15 seconds to play before scoring a spread-covering touchdown.

Alabama is a perfect 14-0 SU this season with their closest game being a 5-point win over Mississippi way back in Week 3.  The Rebels were the only team to beat Alabama the previous season as well.  Thirteen of their fourteen wins this season have come by 10 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 27.9 points per game.  Alabama’s offense was extremely well-balanced this season as they averaged 248.8 yards per game on the ground and 212.1 yards per game thru the air.  Overall, Alabama averaged 39.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 25.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Alabama is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide in the championship game on Monday night.

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

New York quietly went 11-5 SU during the regular season, and they’ve gone 9-2 SU over their last eleven games.  Three of New York’s five losses this season have come by 7 points or less, so they’ve been competitive in just about every games they’ve played.  New York’s defense has been outstanding recently as they’ve only given up 47 total points in their past four games.  Overall, the Giants’ defense is only allowing 17.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  New York’s offense has been underwhelming, but they are taking a big step-down in class versus the Green Bay defense in this game.

Green Bay came on strong down the stretch as they won their last six games of the regular season.  However, the Packers’ offense was fortunate to face several weak defensive teams during that stretch.  That won’t be the case this afternoon against a stout New York defense.  The Packers have won a lot of close games this season, and in fact, six of their wins have come by 8 points or less, including two of their last three wins.  Green Bay’s defense has been poor all season as they are giving up 24.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average just 22.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  This should be a close game throughout, so we’ll take New York plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play GIANTS (+).

Miami will hit the road for their playoff game after losing 35-14 at home to New England last Sunday afternoon.  Despite that loss, Miami has gone 9-2 SU over their last eleven games while playing two different quarterbacks.  Matt Moore has plenty of experience, and we haven’t seen much drop-off in production since he took over for the injured Ryan Tannehill.  Overall this season, the Dolphins’ offense is averaging 22.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Dolphins will take advantage of Pittsburgh’s mediocre defense just like Miami did in the first meeting this season when they scored 30 points on 474 yards of offense.  Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 21.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season.

Pittsburgh has bounced back strong since losing their first two games after their bye back in Week 8.  The Steelers have won seven consecutive games since then, but their last four wins have all come by 7 points or less.  Not only that, but six of Pittsburgh’s seven wins also came against non-playoff teams.  The Steelers’ defense has given up 20 points or more in each of their past four games despite playing bad offenses like the Browns, Bengals, and Ravens during that stretch.  Overall, Pittsburgh’s defense has faced a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 22.0 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  We’ll take Miami plus the generous points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play DOLPHINS (+).

NC State is having a good season as they come into today’s game at in-state rival North Carolina with a 12-3 record.  The Wolfpack played their best game of the season on Wednesday night when they beat Virginia Tech 104-78.  However, NC State caught the Hokies off their blowout win of Duke, so they were ripe for the picking.  The Wolfpack shot an incredible 64.1% (41-64) from the field with three players scoring 20 points or more.  That performance was in stark contrast to their previous game where they scored just 63 points in an 18-point road loss at Miami, FL.  In fact, NC State is 0-2 in true road games this season while losing by 18 and 14 points against lesser teams than they’ll face today. 

North Carolina is 13-3 SU, including a perfect 7-0 at home this season.  The Tar Heels haven’t played their best basketball in their last two games, but both of those games were on the road.  With a return home, we expect a peak performance by the Tar Heels today.  North Carolina has been incredible at home where they own a whopping +27.6 point differential on the season.  The Tar Heels’ offense is averaging 89.7 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field.  North Carolina will now face a NC State defense that is giving up 84.5 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field and 41% shooting from three-point land on the road.  North Carolina’s defense is holding opponents to just 62.1 points per game on 37% shooting from the field and 26.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with the Tar Heels in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

Butler comes into today’s game at Georgetown after beating #1 Villanova 66-58 on Wednesday night.  We had a Best Bet winner on Butler in that game, and we have no hesitation in playing against the Bulldogs off that win.  Butler trailed 31-27 at the half, but they played ferocious defense in the second half while holding the potent Villanova offense to just 27 points.  Butler’s defense held the Wildcats to just 37.3% (19-51) shooting from the field and 23.1% (6-26) shooting from three-point land.  That win by the Bulldogs was not surprising at all because they match-up extremely well versus Villanova.  Butler plays at a slow pace, and their style simply frustrates an up-tempo offense.  That won’t be the case against Georgetown in this game as the Hoyas also prefer to play slow, half-court basketball.

Georgetown is just 8-7 SU, but five of their wins have come on their home court.  The Hoyas return home off a 76-70 road loss at Providence, and they also lost their last home game to Xavier as 3.5-point underdogs.  Georgetown is in a prime situational spot today, so we expect a peak performance.  The Hoyas’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 67.6 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 31.1% shooting from three-point land.  Georgetown’s offense is averaging 83 points per game on 49.3% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  Georgetown has a lot of motivation today, so we’ll back the Hoyas in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play GEORGETOWN (+).

Houston comes into tonight’s game in Orlando on a 6-game winning streak.  However, this is a bad scheduling and situational spot for Houston.  The Rockets played at home last night and they beat Oklahoma City 118-116 in a spotlight national TV game.  Houston expended a lot of energy in winning that game.  The Rockets had four of their five starters play 31 minutes or more with two of those guys playing 35 minutes or more.  Houston’s bench also had two reserves play 28 minutes or more.  Overall, six players scored in double digits while the team shot 47.7% (41-86) from the field.  Houston’s offense has scored 118 points or more in six of their last eight games, but that isn’t sustainable, and we expect major regression tonight against the Magic. 

Orlando lost at home to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday night.  The Magic will play once again on their home court before embarking on a 6-game West Coast road trip on Sunday.  This is an important game for the Magic, so we know we’ll get their best effort after losing their last two home games.  Orlando’s offense is in good current form, and that’s important when facing a potent offense like Houston.  Over their last five games, the Magic are averaging 104.8 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.  Orlando has scored 101 points or more in six of their last seven games overall.  This is a flat spot for Houston, so we’ll take Orlando plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play MAGIC (+).

Minnesota comes into this game off back-to-back draining overtime games.  The Gophers came up short in a 75-74 home loss to Michigan State before bouncing back with a 91-82 win at Purdue as 13.5-point underdogs.  Minnesota will now play back-to-back road games for the first time this season, and off their last two big efforts, we expect regression tonight.  Minnesota is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Gophers tend to struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, so this is not a good match-up for them at all.  Northwestern routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Minnesota will be put out of their comfort zone.

Northwestern is having a terrific season, and they’ll be on the verge of getting their elusive ticket to the Big Dance in March.  This is an important conference game for the Wildcats, especially since they are back home off a 61-52 loss at Michigan State.  Northwestern’s other two losses this season have come against Butler by 2 points and to Notre Dame by 4 points.  Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Wildcats only give up 62.7 points per game on 38% shooting from the field and 30.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Northwestern is simply the better team, and since they are off a loss, we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats on Thursday night. 

10* Play NORTHWESTERN (-).

Atlanta is off back-to-back big performances.  The Hawks beat San Antonio 114-112 in overtime last Sunday night, and then they won in Orlando 111-92 last night.  Atlanta’s offense was terrific in both of those games as they shot 49.7% (86-173) from the field and 51.1% (24-47) from three-point land against the Spurs and Magic.  The 225 total points scored by the Hawks in those two games was their third best 2-game performance of the season.  After coming off back-to-back strong offensive games, Atlanta’s offense has regressed this season as they’ve scored less than 100 points in two qualifying games.

New Orleans is finally playing with a healthy roster.  The Pelicans struggled mightily early on, but their play as of late has been fantastic.  New Orleans comes into tonight’s game off a 90-82 loss in Cleveland on Monday night.  The Pelicans are still 5-2 SU over their last seven games, including 4-1 SU on their home court during that stretch.  New Orleans’ offense has been much better at home this season.  The Pelicans are averaging 106.1 points per game on 45% shooting from the field at home.  New Orleans has scored 100 points or more in eleven of their last thirteen games overall.  This is a flat spot for Atlanta, so we’ll back New Orleans in this game on Thursday night.     

9* Play PELICANS (-).

Oklahoma State has a good looking 10-3 SU record on the season, but the Cowboys have played a very easy schedule so far.  Oklahoma State’s opponents include Campbell, Central Arkansas, New Orleans, Rogers State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and Texas A&M CC.  Those teams account for six of their ten wins this season.  Overall, Oklahoma State’s offense is averaging 91.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land.  But those numbers have a lot to do with the inferior opponents they’ve played.  The Cowboys will now face a real defense in Texas tonight, and we expect Oklahoma State to have their worst offensive game of the season.       

Texas is just 6-7 SU, but all six of their wins have come on their home court.  The Longhorns return home off a 65-62 road loss at Kansas State, and they also lost their last home game to Kent State as 12.5-point favorites.  Texas is in a prime situational spot tonight, so we expect a peak performance.  The Longhorns’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 64 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 27.1% shooting from three-point land.  Texas’ offense is averaging 75.8 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field at home.  Texas has a lot of motivation tonight, so we’ll back the Longhorns in this game on Wednesday night.       

9* Play TEXAS (+).

Villanova is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Butler ranked #1 with a perfect 14-0 record.  However, the Wildcats will face a stiff challenge tonight in the Bulldogs.  Villanova has been unable to beat Butler by margin over the last three years.  They’ve won all three games but the scores were 76-73 in overtime, 60-55, and 68-65.  Butler is simply a bad matchup for Villanova because of the way the Wildcats play.  Villanova wants to get out and run in transition, but Butler has forced them into half-court games in the last three meetings.  Villanova’s inability to play their style of basketball has limited their effectiveness against Butler, and we expect that to be the case once again tonight. 

Butler is 12-2 SU, including a perfect 8-0 at home this season.  Butler’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are holding opponents to just 61 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land.  Butler’s offense has been excellent at home where they are averaging 81.5 points per game on 52.5% shooting from the field and 39.7% shooting form three-point land.  Villanova’s defense has been worse on the road this season; they are allowing 67.7 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field.  Butler is extremely tough to beat on their home court, and since they matchup well against Villanova, we’ll back the Bulldogs in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play BUTLER (+).

North Carolina opened conference play with an ugly 75-63 loss at Georgia Tech on Saturday afternoon.  The Tar Heels played their worst game of the season while shooting just 33.3% (24-72) from the field and 19.2% (5-26) from three-point land.  North Carolina was also quite sloppy with the ball as they committed 20 turnovers while only getting to the free throw line 14 times.  North Carolina’s players admitted they took their opponent for granted: “It was a bigger game for them,” Joel Berry said.  “We thought that we were going to come in here and just win because it’s Georgia Tech.”  Off such an embarrassing performance, we expect North Carolina to bounce back with a strong effort just like they’ve done all season.  In two games following a loss this season, the Tar Heels are a perfect 2-0 while winning those games by 45 and 43 points.

Clemson comes into tonight’s game with an impressive 11-2 SU record.  However, the Tigers have played an exceptionally easy schedule with their toughest opponent being Xavier; Clemson lost that game 83-77.  Clemson was trailing Wake Forest by 10 points with less than 5 minutes to play in their last game before ending the game on a 15-0 run for the comeback win.  That’s not a good sign heading into this game against North Carolina, especially since Clemson is taking a monumental step-up in class.  Clemson has solid seasonal numbers on defense, but they’ve played a schedule loaded with mediocre offenses.  Now they will face one of the best offensive teams in the country, and they are catching them off an ugly offensive performance.  North Carolina will have too much offense for Clemson, so we’ll back the Tar Heels in this game on Tuesday night.       

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

New Orleans is finally playing with a healthy roster.  The Pelicans struggled mightily early on, but their play as of late has been fantastic.  New Orleans comes into tonight’s game in Cleveland on a 4-game winning streak, and they’ve won five of their last six games overall.  The Pelicans’ offense is in excellent current form.  Over their last five games, the Pelicans have averaged 103.6 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  New Orleans has scored 100 points or more in eleven of their last twelve games overall.

Cleveland is off back-to-back big performances.  The Cavaliers beat Boston 124-118 last Thursday night, and then they won in Charlotte 121-109 last Saturday night.  Cleveland’s offense was terrific in both of those games as they shot 51.2% (86-168) from the field and 40.6% (28-69) from three-point land against the Celtics and Hornets.  The Cavaliers also got to the free throw line 58 times in those two games.  LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving combined to score 85 points against Boston.  James and Love combined to score 60 points against Charlotte.  Irving missed that game with a hamstring injury, and he’s questionable to play tonight.  This is a flat spot for Cleveland, so we’ll take the points with New Orleans in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play PELICANS (+).

Iowa went 8-4 SU this season with three of their losses coming by 8 points or less.  The Hawkeyes played a tough schedule, facing seven teams that made a bowl game.  Iowa held up very well against those opponents.  Overall, Iowa’s offense averaged 26.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 25.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Hawkeyes were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 172 yards per game and threw for 161 yards per game.  Iowa’s offense also travelled well as they averaged 23.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season, going 4-1 SU in those games.

Florida also had an 8-4 SU record this season.  The Gators lost their last two games by a combined score of 85-29 because they were decimated by injuries.  Florida’s offense underachieved all season as they only averaged 23.4 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 26.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Florida will now face an Iowa defense that only gave up 17.9 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 26.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this year.  My power ratings actually make Iowa -1 in this game, so getting the Hawkeyes as an underdog presents solid value.  We’ll take the points with Iowa this Outback Bowl on Monday afternoon.

10* Play IOWA (+).

New Orleans is just 7-8 SU on the season, but the Saints have been playing their best football as of late.  New Orleans has gone 3-2 SU over their last five games with one of their losses coming by just 5 points.  The Saints’ offense has been terrific this season; New Orleans is averaging 29.1 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 23.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints will take advantage of Atlanta’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when they scored 32 points on 474 yards of offense.  Atlanta’s defense is giving up 27.1 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.

Atlanta has bounced back strong since their 29-28 home loss to Kansas City four weeks ago.  In their last three games, the Falcons beat the Rams by 28 points (42-14), they beat the 49ers by 28 points (41-13), and last week they beat the Panthers by 17 points (33-16).  However, those three dominating wins came against three of the worst offensive teams in the league.  Atlanta will now face the potent New Orleans offense, so the Falcons' defense will likely have a weak game.  Overall, Atlanta’s defense is giving up 24.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  This is a bad situational spot for the Falcons to be laying more than a touchdown, and the line is inflated as New Orleans was a 3-point favorite in the earlier meeting this season.  We’ll take the value with the Saints in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play SAINTS (+).

Ohio State went 11-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming by 3 points at Penn State.  Ohio State played a brutal schedule this season while facing nine teams that also made a bowl game.  Overall, the Buckeyes’ offense averaged 42.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that only allowed 26.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Ohio State owns a potent rushing attack that averaged 258.3 yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush.  They put those numbers up against defenses that only gave up 164.5 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  In four games in which Clemson’s defense gave up 150 rushing yards or more, they allowed 36, 34, and 43 points in three games.  They lost to Pittsburgh, and were fortunate in coming back from fourth quarter deficits against Florida State and Louisville.

Clemson had another strong season by going 12-1 SU, but as mentioned above, they were extremely fortunate not to have more losses.  The Tigers certainly have a terrific team, but this is a poor matchup for them against Ohio State.  Clemson’s offense faced defenses that gave up 27.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Tigers will will now face an Ohio State defense that only gave up 14.2 points per game on 4.3 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 30.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  My power ratings make Ohio State -3.5 over Clemson, so laying less than a field goal with the Buckeyes presents good value in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

Washington went 12-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming against USC who closed the season by winning eight consecutive games.  Washington’s offense averaged 44.5 points per game on 7.1 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 33 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Huskies were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 210 yards per game and threw for 267.2 yards per game.  Washington’s offense travelled well, and they actually averaged more points per game (48) and more yards per play (7.6) than their overall season averages.  The Huskies are led by shrewd head coach Chris Petersen who has experience knocking off big name teams in bowl games. 

Alabama steamrolled their opponents en route to a perfect 13-0 regular season.  There’s no question that Alabama has the most talented team in the country.  However, the pointspread on this game is simply way too high.  My power ratings only make Alabama -10, so there’s a lot of value in taking Washington in this game.  Alabama’s offense faced defenses that gave up 26 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide will will now face a Washington defense that only gave up 17.2 points per game on 4.6 yards per play this season.  Washington is plenty capable of keeping this game close throughout, so we’ll take the points with the Huskies on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play WASHINGTON (+).

Florida State went 9-3 SU this season with their three losses coming against Louisville, North Carolina, and Clemson.  The Seminoles blew leads late in the fourth quarter against the Tar Heels and Tigers, and they only lost those two games by a combined 5 points.  Florida State should be an 11-1 team.  Florida State played a brutal schedule this season while facing nine teams that also made a bowl game.  Five of those teams have already played, and they’ve gone a perfect 5-0 in their bowl games.  Overall, Florida State’s offense averaged 35.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that only allowed 27.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Seminoles were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 206.7 yards per game and threw for 267.6 yards per game.  Florida State’s offense also travelled well as they averaged 34.8 points per game on 6.5 yards per play on the road this season. 

Michigan had a strong 10-2 SU record on the season, and many believe they were a year too early.  The Wolverines were in the hunt for the playoffs, but their gut-wrenching loss in overtime at Ohio State kept them out.  There’s no question that Michigan has a terrific team, but the Wolverines played a relatively easy schedule expect for their games against Ohio State and Wisconsin.  Michigan only beat Wisconsin 14-7 on their home field and lost against the Buckeyes.  The Wolverines’ defense was fantastic this season, but they are taking a major step-up in class against the Florida State offense in this game.  We’ll take the points with Florida State in this game on Friday night.  

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (+).

Baylor comes into tonight’s game with a perfect 12-0 record, and the Bears have certainly earned some of those wins.  Baylor has already beaten Oregon, VCU, Michigan State, Louisville, and Xavier; no team in the country has a better resume right now.  However, Baylor has played cupcakes in their last three games, so they’ve had no competition heading into conference play.  Baylor is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Bears are not going to get their preferred pace in this game against Oklahoma.  Baylor has scored 76 points or more in six straight games, but that streak is in jeopardy tonight.  The Bears will also be playing their first true road game of the season, and that makes this is a prime spot to play against them.

Oklahoma has struggled to a 6-5 SU record so far this season, but the Sooners have been a competitive bunch.  Four of Oklahoma’s five losses have come by 6 points or less with two of those defeats coming in overtime.  Oklahoma is 4-1 at home where they own a +17.2 point differential this season.  The Sooners are averaging 88.4 points per game on 50% shooting from the field and 41.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  Oklahoma’s defense is holding their opponents to a solid 42% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Oklahoma’s biggest game of the season to date, so we’ll back the Sooners in this game on Friday night.          

9* Play OKLAHOMA (+).

Dallas will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home and losing 123-107 to Houston on Tuesday night.  The Mavericks went into that home game off a 4-game road trip, and in fact, Dallas had played five of their previous six games on the road.  They are now in a terrible scheduling spot since they are back on the road once again while changing time zones.  Dallas’ defense comes into this game in poor current form.  Over their last two games, the Mavericks have given up 234 total points while allowing their opponents to shoot 52.7% (78-148) from the field and 50.9% (29-57) from three-point land.  They also let the Pelicans and Rockets get to the free throw line 58 times.  That’s clearly a sign that their defense is in poor form right now.

Los Angeles will play their third consecutive home game after recently completing a 7-game East Coast road trip.  The Lakers lost their last home 102-100 to Utah, and they’ve had a day off since, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance, especially since they have much tougher opponents on deck.  Los Angeles’ offense has been much better at home this season; the Lakers are averaging 109.3 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Los Angeles in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play LAKERS (-).

Oklahoma State went 9-3 SU this season with their three losses coming against Central Michigan, Baylor, and Oklahoma.  That loss to Central Michigan came on a fluky play at the buzzer, and it should not have counted.  The Cowboys played a tough schedule this season while facing seven teams that also made a bowl game.  And Oklahoma State held up very well against those opponents.  Overall, Oklahoma State’s offense averaged 38.7 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 33.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Cowboys were well-balanced on offense as they ran for 170 yards per game and threw for 322.5 yards per game.  Oklahoma State’s offense also travelled well as they averaged 32.4 points per game on 6.7 yards per play on the road this season. 

Colorado has a strong 10-3 record on the season, but the Buffaloes played a relatively easy schedule outside of the three teams they lost to.  Colorado’s offense played a terrible slate of opposing defenses, and they just barely played above average football.  The Buffaloes averaged 32.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Colorado will now face an Oklahoma State defense that only gave up 27.1 points per game on the road this season.  My power ratings made this game a Pick, so getting a full field goal with Oklahoma State presents some excellent value.  We’ll take the points with the Cowboys in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (+).

UCLA comes into tonight’s game with a perfect 13-0 record, and the Bruins certainly look like one of the most talented team in the country.  UCLA is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Bruins are not going to get their preferred pace in this game against Oregon.  UCLA has scored 82 points or more in twelve of their thirteen games, but their point total tonight is going to be significantly lower.  The Bruins have faced a slew of teams that prefer up-tempo basketball, but that won’t be the case tonight against Oregon who plays a much slower, physical style of basketball while playing ferocious defense.  UCLA will also be playing just their second true road game of the season which makes this is a prime spot to play against them

Oregon is 11-2 on the season.  The Ducks are a perfect 8-0 at home; they've won 33 consecutive games on their home court.  Oregon owns an incredible +20.7 point differential at home this season.  The Ducks are averaging 83.4 points per game on 49.8% shooting from the field at home this season.  Oregon’s defense is holding their opponents to just 62.7 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the field and 26.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Oregon’s biggest game of the season to date, so we’ll back the Ducks in this game on Wednesday night.          

9* Play OREGON (+).

Los Angeles will hit the road after losing at home to the Denver Nuggets on Monday night.  The Clippers come into tonight’s game in New Orleans on a 3-game losing streak as they are playing without Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and J.J. Redick.  Los Angeles has only scored 292 total points in their last three games, and unless their reserves play way above normal, the Clippers’ offense will continue to struggle without their best offensive players on the court.  Without their top three players on the court, Los Angeles is missing 54.2 points per game.  That’s 50% of their overall scoring average.  The Clippers’ defense is giving up 104.2 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 37.4% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.   

New Orleans is finally playing with a healthy roster.  The Pelicans struggled mightily early on, but their play as of late has been fantastic.  New Orleans is 3-1 SU over their last four games, and their offense comes into this game in excellent current form.  Over their last five games, the Pelicans have averaged 104 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 44% shooting from three-point land.  The Pelicans’ offense has been good at home where they are averaging 106.4 points per game on 45% shooting from the field.  We’ll lay the points with New Orleans in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play PELICANS (-).

West Virginia has a strong 10-2 record on the season, but the Mountaineers played a relatively easy schedule.  Both of their games against better opponents resulted in blowout losses; Oklahoma State beat them 37-20 and Oklahoma beat them 56-28.  West Virginia played four other teams that made bowl games; BYU, Kansas State, TCU, and Baylor with the latter three all opening as underdogs in their post-season games.  West Virginia’s offense played a terrible slate of opposing defenses, and they just barely played above average football.  The Mountaineers averaged 32.6 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 30.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  West Virginia is now taking a major step-up in defensive class against Miami, FL in this game as the Hurricanes only give up 18.9 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.     

Miami went 8-4 SU in their first season under head coach Mark Richt.  They could have had a much better record as three of their four losses came by 7 points or less with two of those losses coming by 3 points or less.  The Hurricanes played a brutal schedule this season while facing seven teams that also made a bowl game.  And Miami held up very well against those opponents.  Overall, Miami’s offense averaged 34.6 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  The Hurricanes will now face a West Virginia defense that allowed 25 points per game on 5.9 yards per play on the road this season.  Miami is better on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes in this game on Wednesday night.  

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Detroit comes into this game with a 9-5 SU record, and the Lions have gone 4-1 SU since their bye week.  Detroit’s lone loss during that stretch came by a score of 17-6 in New York against the Giants last week.  Detroit’s defense has been outstanding recently as they’ve only given up 79 total points in their last five games.  Overall, the Lions’ defense is only giving up 20.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.4 points per game.  Detroit’s offense has been underwhelming, but they won’t be at a disadvantage in this game because it’s projected to be played at an extremely slow pace.

Dallas is having a terrific season as they come into tonight’s game with a 12-2 SU record with the only team to beat them being the New York Giants.  The Cowboys have won a lot of close games this season, and in fact, seven of their twelve wins have come by 7 points or less, including four of their last five wins.  Dallas’ offense plays at a slow pace as they prefer to run the ball with Ezekiel Elliott behind the NFL’s best offensive line.  That style of play prevents Dallas from winning by big margins, and we expect more of the same against the Lions.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Detroit plus the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play LIONS (+).

Maryland and Boston College are evenly matched and my power ratings actually make Boston College a 1-point favorite, so there is a bit of value on the underdog.  The teams played similar schedules; Maryland #55 and Boston College #63.  Their overall efficiency statistics are just about even across the board as well.  Maryland’s offense underachieved this season as the Terrapins only averaged 25.4 points per game versus defenses that allowed 28.2 points per game.  Maryland’s offense was even worse away from home where they only averaged 21.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Terrapins will now face a Boston College defense that only allowed 24.3 points per game on 4.7 yards per play away from home this season.

Boston College went just 6-6 SU on the season, and blowout losses to Clemson, Louisville, Florida State, and Virginia Tech really skewed their offensive stats.  Against those four teams, the Eagles only averaged 6 points per game on 3.0 yards per play.  In their other eight games, Boston College’s offense averaged 25.6 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Boston College will now face a terrible Maryland defense that gave up 29 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only averaged 27.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Terrapins’ defense was even worse on the road where they allowed 34.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  We’ll take the points with Boston College in this game on Monday afternoon.

9* Play BOSTON COLLEGE (+).

Boston will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home and losing 117-112 to Oklahoma City on Friday night.  The Celtics went into that game off a 3-game road trip, and in fact, Boston had played twelve of their previous sixteen games on the road.  They are now in a terrible scheduling spot since they are back on the road once again.  Boston’s defense comes into this game in poor current form.  Over their last three games, the Celtics have given up 328 total points while allowing their opponents to get to the free throw line a whooping 91 times.  That’s clearly a sign that their defense is in poor form right now.

New York will play their third consecutive home game after recently completing a 5-game West Coast road trip.  The Knicks won both of those games while scoring 224 total points.  New York has had two full days off since, so they’ll be ready for another peak performance, especially since they are looking to atone for an embarrassing 28 point loss (115-87) in Boston earlier this season.  New York’s offense has been much better at home this season; the Knicks are averaging 106.4 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take the points with New York in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play KNICKS (+).

Atlanta has bounced back strong after their 29-28 home loss to Kansas City three weeks ago.  In their last two games, the Falcons beat the Rams by 28 points (42-14) and they also beat the 49ers by 28 points (41-13).  However, both of those dominating wins came against two of the worst teams in the league who have also quit on the season.  Off back-to-back blowout wins, we expect Atlanta to regress in this game, especially since they have to hit the road and play outside in the elements while laying points into a divisional opponent.  Atlanta certainly has a strong offensive team, but the Falcons have been vulnerable on defense all season long.  Atlanta’s defense is giving up 25.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

Carolina is just 6-8 on the season, but the Panthers have been playing their best football as of late.  Since their bye week, Carolina has gone 5-3 SU with two of their losses coming by just 3 points apiece.  The Panthers have played three of their last four games on the road, so this will be just their second home game since November 27th.  Carolina’s offense is averaging 24.1 points per game versus defenses that allow 23.6 points per game.  The Panthers will take advantage of Atlanta’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when they scored 33 points on 378 yards of offense despite losing Cam Newton to a concussion.  This is a bad situational spot for the Falcons to be laying points, so we’ll take the Panthers in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play PANTHERS (+).

Miami will hit the road after beating the Los Angeles Lakers 115-107 last night.  The Heat shot the lights out against the Lakers.  Miami shot 53.6% (45-84) from the field and 50% (11-22) from three-point land.  Three players scored 21 points or more while five players scored 14 points or more.  Miami also had a strong offensive game in their previous outing when they scored 130 points on 46.3% (50-108) shooting from the field and 40% (12-30) shooting from three-point land.  Miami has played six straight home games, so this will be their first road game in thirteen days.  That puts them in a terrible scheduling spot for tonight’s game, especially since they’ve played back-to-back above normal offensive games.

New Orleans will play just their second home game over the last eight days.  The Pelicans have played a brutal schedule recently with games against the Warriors, Rockets, Spurs, and Thunder.  Tonight’s game against Miami is a major step-down in class for New Orleans, so we expect a peak performance by the Pelicans.  New Orleans had last night off, so they’ll be ready, especially since they lost their last home game to Oklahoma City.  The Pelicans’ offense has been much better at home where they are averaging 107.1 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field.  We’ll lay the points with New Orleans in this game on Friday night.     

9* Play PELICANS (-).

Colorado State went 7-5 on the season, but they needed to win four of their last five games to become bowl eligible.  The Rams went just 3-5 SU against other bowl teams, and they lost those five games by an average of 14.6 points per game.  Colorado State’s three wins against bowl teams came against UTSA and New Mexico who played each other, and San Diego State who beat a disinterested Houston team.  Colorado State’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a weak group of defenses that gave up 29.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

Idaho went 8-4 during the regular season, and they played a much tougher schedule than Colorado State.  Two of the Vandals’ four losses came against Washington and Washington State; the Huskies are in the playoffs while the Cougars will play in the Holiday Bowl.  Idaho played average offense this season, but the Vandals will face a poor Colorado State defense that gave up 33 points per game on 424 yards while allowing 6.1 yards per play versus the eight bowl teams they faced.  With this game in their home state and against a team that shouldn’t be laying this many points into any team, we’ll take Idaho plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play IDAHO (+).