Iowa State and Oklahoma State played earlier this season with the Cyclones winning 63-61 at home.  The impressive part of that game was the fact that Oklahoma State held the potent Iowa State offense to just 63 points on their home court.  The Cyclones have scored 73 points or more in every one of their other home games this season.  The Cowboys’ defense held them to 10 points less, so that alone makes the rematch a difficult challenge for Iowa State.  Tonight’s game will be played on Oklahoma State’s home court, and we expect them to avenge their earlier loss, especially since they also play on one of the most intimidating courts in college basketball.  Iowa State is just 2-4 SU in true road games this season, including 1-4 in conference play.  Iowa State’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 80.3 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land.       

Oklahoma State is a strong 11-2 at home this season, and they have plenty of motivation to beat Iowa State big tonight.  Oklahoma State is playing with triple revenge after losing earlier this season and also losing a pair of games in overtime last season.  All eleven of the Cowboys’ home wins this season have come by 5 points or more with ten of their wins coming by 11 points or more.  Oklahoma State’s defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 56.7 points per game on 36.7% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  The Cowboys also have an offense that is averaging 69.8 points per game on 45% shooting from the field at home.  Oklahoma State has a lot of motivation tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Cowboys in this game on Wednesday night.       

10* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (-).

Massachusetts beat Rhode Island 60-56 earlier this season, but the Minutemen needed a big rally late in the game to get that win.  Massachusetts trailed 53-47 with a coupe of minutes left to play before going on a 13-3 run to close the game and win by 4 points.  That win was their second consecutive big comeback against Rhode Island; the Minutemen also trailed in the A-10 tournament last year before winning 65-61.  Massachusetts has to play this rematch on Rhode Island’s strong home court, and once they get down, they’ll be no fortunate comeback in this game.  Massachusetts plays at an extremely fast pace, but they will not get their preferred pace in this game.  The Minutemen have been held to less than 70 points in seven games on the road this season.  They’ve gone 3-4 SU in those games, but two of their wins came when they were favored.  That means Massachusetts is just 1-4 SU and ATS as an underdog on the road this season when held to less than 70 points.  Their four losses have come by 6, 13, 20, 22 points which averages out to 15.3 points per game.    

Rhode Island is in the third year of head coach Dan Hurley’s system, and they finally have the length and athleticism to run his brand of basketball.  The Rams are having a terrific season as they come into tonight’s game with a 17-6 record, including an 11-1 mark on their home court.  Rhode Island plays at a slow pace, and they’ve held 21 of their 23 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  The Rams have held all 12 of their home opponents to 68 points or less.  Rhode Island’s defense has been tremendous, especially on their home court.  The Rams are holding their opponents to just 56.8 points per game on 37.6% shooting from the field and 28.2% shooting from three-point land.  This is a big revenge game for the Rhode Island players:  “It’s a huge game for us,” T.J. Buchanan said.  “We know the importance of this game.”  E.C. Matthews echoed those thoughts: “I think the fact that we’ve got them at home where we thrive, tomorrow is when we’re finally going to get the win.”  We’ll lay the points with Rhode Island in this game on Wednesday night.  

9* Play RHODE ISLAND (-).

Alabama versus Auburn is a fierce in-state rivalry that usually brings out the best in both teams.  Alabama won the first meeting 57-55 back on January 24th.  That game was on their home court, and Auburn gave them all they could handle.  Alabama actually trailed with just over 2 minutes left to play, and they won the game on a last-second basket.  The Crimson Tide will now play the rematch on the road, and they’ve been a much weaker team away from home.  Alabama is just 2-6 in true road games this season, and they have a -2.7 point differential away from home.  That small differential doesn't appear to be too bad, but Alabama plays at an extremely slow pace which makes the margin look a lot better than it actually is.  Overall, Alabama’s defense is giving up 67.6 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field on the road this season.  Over their last five road games, Alabama has allowed 70.6 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field.     

Auburn comes into tonight’s game off a confidence-building win at Georgia on Saturday.  The Tigers were 11.5-point road underdogs in that game, and now they return home and they are catching points once again.  Home underdogs off a road underdog win fit a strong performance pattern, and since Auburn is playing their rival, we expect another supreme effort out of the Tigers.  Auburn has lost four straight home games after opening the season with a 9-1 record on their home court, so they have that motivation as well.  To be fair, Auburn played better teams in those recent home games, and they are taking a step-down in class against Alabama.  The Tigers’ offense has been much better at home where they are averaging 76.2 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land.  Auburn is in a good spot to avenge their earlier season loss to Alabama, so we’ll back the Tigers in this game on Tuesday night.    

10* Play AUBURN (+).

Monday, Feb. 16

NCAA Basketball

(3% play)  CREIGHTON +2.5 (vs. Butler) - 9:15 pm ET (FOX1) #710

Butler is not in a good scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Creighton.  The Bulldogs come in off a heartbreaking last-second loss at home to Villanova on Saturday night.  Butler led that game with a minute to play, but they allowed Villanova to score 6 points, including the game-winning three with just 1.5 second left to play in the game.  The Bulldogs lost 68-65, and now they must take to the road and lay points just two days later.  Butler also lost one of their best players, third-leading scorer Andrew Chrabascz, for two to four weeks with a broken hand.  “We’re certainly not a team that has had to adjust to a key injury,” Butler coach Chris Holtmann said.  Butler has started the same lineup in all 25 games, but that won’t be the case tonight, and it comes at the worst possible time. 

Creighton has been playing much better basketball recently.  The Bluejays are 3-2 over their last five games after suffering thru a 9-game losing streak.  One of Creighton’s losses during their slump came at Butler, but they only lost that game by 3 points (64-61).  The Bluejays actually led that game with two minutes left to play, and that’s impressive since Butler plays on an extremely strong home court.  Creighton has been waiting for the rematch, and they are motivated to atone for that loss.  “We lost a close game to them, a game we thought we had in our hands but we let it slip away, said Creighton head coach Greg McDermott.  “Our guys will be ready. We have an eight-day break afterward, so we don’t have to save ourselves for anything.”  The players feel the same way: “We want to get that one back,” Ricky Kreklow said.  “We just didn’t finish that one out at their place. This is a game we can win.”  With Butler in a terrible spot, we’ll take the points with Creighton in this game on Monday night.

10* Play CREIGHTON (+).

Minnesota is playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The Golden Gophers have won three straight games, and five of their last seven games overall.  Over their last ten games, Minnesota is only 5-5 SU, but all five losses have come by 5 points or less, including three losses by 3 points or less.  Those numbers show just how good Minnesota is playing right now, and we expect their good current form to continue tonight in Indiana.  The biggest improvement Minnesota has made has been their defense.  Over their last five games, the Gophers’ defense has held their opponents to just 58.6 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field.  Indiana is all offense and no defense, so Minnesota has a very good shot at winning this game since their defense is in tremendous current form.  

Indiana is in poor current form.  The Hoosiers are just 2-4 SU over their last six games with their two wins coming over a poor Michigan team and a terrible Rutgers team.  Both of those games were at home, but Indiana only won by a combined 11 points.  Minnesota is a significantly better opponent, so the Hoosiers are taking a major step-up in class for this game.  Indiana has the worst defense in the Big 10 as they are allowing an ugly 1.14 points per possession.  Over their last five games, Indiana has given up 74.8 points per game on 52.3% shooting from the field and 43.4% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, Minnesota has a +6 point differential.  To compare, Indiana has a -4.2 point differential over their last five games.  It’s clear that Minnesota is in better current form, so there’s good value in taking points with the Gophers in this game on Sunday night.      

10* Play MINNESOTA (+).

Maryland appears to be a good team with their 20-5 record this season.  However, the Terrapins are one of the phoniest teams in college basketball as their record was built on an extremely weak non-conference schedule and a 15-1 home record.  Maryland is just 2-4 SU in conference road games this season, and tonight’s game at Penn State will be another road loss on their resume.  The Terrapins only beat Penn State by 6 points (64-58) on their home court ten days ago.  The game was tied with just five minutes left to play, and Maryland only lead by a single point with one minute left to play in the game.  Since that game was so close on Maryland’s strong home court, the rematch on the road figures to be a difficult task for the Terrapins.  Maryland’s defense has been terrible away from home as they are giving up 70.6 points per game on 44.4% shooting form the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.           

Penn State returns home after playing three of their last four games on the road, so we fully expect a peak performance in this home game tonight.  They’ve won their last three home games, and their last home loss came in overtime.  At home, Penn State’s defense has been outstanding while holding opponents to just 58.6 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 26.3% shooting from three-point land.  Penn State has also played better basketball than Maryland in conference games; the Nittany Lions rank 7th while the Terrapins rank 9th in efficiency margin.  Over their last five games, Maryland has a -6.2 point differential despite playing three of those games at home.  Penn State only has a -2 point differential over their last five games despite playing three of their games on the road.  Penn State is in a good spot, so we’ll back the Nittany Lions in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play PENN STATE (-).

Colorado State and San Diego State played three weeks ago with the Rams winning 79-73 as 2-point home favorites.  That game was a fluky result as Colorado State simply shot the lights out.  The Rams shot 46.3% (25-54) from the field and an incredible 57.1% (12-21) from three-point land.  That was just the third time a team scored more than 70 points on San Diego State this season; the other two games went to overtime.  Despite that hot shooting, Colorado State was only able to win that game by 6 points on their home court.  The Rams’ offense has been worse on the road this season, especially their three-point shooting.  Colorado State is only averaging 68.2 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from three-point land away from home.  To compare, Colorado State shoots 36.7% from three-point land overall this season.  Colorado State has lost their last two road games, and they haven’t had much success at San Diego State in recent years, losing their last two trips by a total of 16 points.      

San Diego State is a perfect 3-0 SU on their home court since losing the first meeting to Colorado State; they won each of those games by 11 points or more.  The Aztecs play on a very strong home court where they are a perfect 14-0 SU this season with their average win coming by a whopping 14.5 points per game.  San Diego State has a terrific defense, especially at home.  The Aztecs are holding their opponents to just 46.1 points per game on 35.2% shooting from the field and 23.6% shooting from three-point land.  San Diego State is also a very good offensive rebounding team, and that gives them a bunch of second-chance points.  The Aztecs collected 11 offensive rebounds while holding Colorado State to just 5 in the first meeting.  This is a good revenge spot for San Diego State, so we’ll lay the points with the Aztecs in this game on Saturday night.      

10* Play SAN DIEGO STATE (-).

Villanova is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Butler with a 22-2 record.  The Wildcats beat Butler 67-55 on New Year’s Eve, but that game came when the Bulldogs were in poor form and in the middle of a 3-4 SU slump.  Villanova will get a much stiffer challenge from Butler tonight, especially since the Wildcats’ play on the road has been shaky at times.  Villanova is 5-2 SU in true road games, and their two losses had two commonalities that they will face in this game.  In their two conference road losses, the Wildcats were forced to play in slow, half-court games while being held to just 61 and 58 points.  Villanova only scored 67 points on their home court in their win over Butler, so it’s quite likely that the Wildcats will be held to fewer points on Butler’s home court.

Butler is playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The Bulldogs have won five straight games, and seven of their last eight games overall.  Butler plays on a very strong home court where they are 12-1 this season with their lone loss coming by just 4 points.  The Bulldogs’ defense has been tremendous at home as they are only allowing 56.8 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from three-point land.  Butler’s offense is also significantly better at home where they are averaging 76.7 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 38% shooting form three-point land.  Villanova’s defense has been worse on the road; they are allowing 65.1 points per game on 43.3% shooting form the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  Butler is extremely tough to beat on their home court, and since they are getting points in this game, we’ll back the Bulldogs on Saturday night.

9* Play BUTLER (+).

Wisconsin-Green Bay and Valparaiso played three weeks ago with the Phoenix winning 51-50 as 5.5-point home favorites.  Green Bay was catching Valparaiso at the perfect time as the Crusaders were playing their third consecutive road game in the span of six days.  Despite being in a terrible spot, Valparaiso was the better team even though they lost; they actually led that game by 10 points at one time.  Wisconsin-Green Bay is now the team in the bad spot for the rematch as they will be playing their second straight road game, and their fourth road game over their last five games overall.  The Phoenix are a much better home team as well, especially on the defensive end of the court.  On the road, Wisconsin-Green Bay is allowing 67 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Phoenix are not playing up to expectation right now as they are just 1-4 ATS over their last five games, and 3-6 ATS over their last nine games overall.  They were 7-1 ATS over their previous eight games.

Valparaiso is a perfect 4-0 SU since losing the first meeting to Wisconsin-Green Bay.  The Crusaders play on a very strong home court where they are 11-1 SU this season.  Their lone home loss came out of conference to New Mexico.  Five of their six conference home wins have come by six points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 14.2 points per game.  Valparaiso has a terrific defense that is holding their opponents to just 61.5 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 34% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, Valparaiso has a +8.6 point differential.  To compare, Wisconsin-Green Bay only has a +2.4 point differential over their last five games.  It’s clear that Valparaiso is playing the better basketball right now, and in a good revenge spot, we’ll lay the points with the Crusaders in this game on Friday night.      

10* Play VALPARAISO (-).

Minnesota and Iowa played last month with the Hawkeyes winning 77-75 as 3-point road underdogs.  We remember that game well as we had a Best Bet winner on Iowa.  But tonight’s game sets-up totally different, and because of that, we’re going to back Minnesota in the rematch.  Going into the first meeting, the Golden Gophers were in terrible current form as they were on a 4-game losing streak.  Since their loss to Iowa, Minnesota is playing much better basketball, and they come into tonight’s game with three wins in their last four games.  Over their last nine games, Minnesota is only 4-5 SU, but all five losses have come by 5 points or less.  That means Minnesota is on a perfect 9-0 ATS run based on the posted line for tonight’s game against Iowa.  Over their last five games, Minnesota’s defense has held their opponents to just 57.2 points per game on 40% shooting from the field.  

Iowa is just 2-3 SU over their last five games with their two wins coming over a poor Michigan team and an overrated Maryland team.  Iowa shot the ball incredibly well in those two wins; the Hawkeyes hit greater than 70% from two-point range.  Overall, Iowa shot 63.4% (59-93) from the field and 41% (9-22) from three-point land in those back-to-back wins.  Minnesota is better than Iowa’s recent opponents, and since they shot the ball so well, the Hawkeyes’ offense will regress sharply in this game.  Over their last five games, Minnesota has a +4.4 point differential.  To compare, Iowa has a -2.6 point differential over their last five games.  It’s clear that Minnesota is in better current form, so there’s good value in taking points with the Gophers in this game.  In a game that will come right down to the wire, we’ll take the points with Minnesota in this game on Thursday night.      

10* Play MINNESOTA (+).

Virginia is having an excellent season.  The Cavaliers come into tonight’s game with a 21-1 record, including a perfect 8-0 mark in true road games.  However, Virginia is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at NC State.  The Cavaliers are coming off three consecutive emotional games against Duke, North Carolina, and Louisville.  This is a huge flat spot on Virginia’s schedule, especially since they play four of their next five games at home.  Virginia also lost their best guard, Justin Anderson, to an injury in their last game, and his absence will have a negative impact on both ends of the court.  “We aren’t going to be exactly the same,” Virginia head coach Tony Bennett said.  “We don’t have a replica to replace Justin. We’ll have to look a little different and figure it out as we go.”  Virginia only beat NC State by 10 points at home earlier this season, and in fact, the Cavaliers trailed with just over 8 minutes left to play in that game.

NC State returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being an 88-84 loss at Wake Forest.  The Wolfpack have also lost their last three home games, so we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since they’ve had eight days to prepare for this game.  NC State’s season hinges on this game, and head coach Mark Gottfried knows it.  “The time is now, it’s time to step up and get going.”  The Wolfpack are 12-5 at home where they are averaging 74.3 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field.  NC State’s defense is holding their opponents to just 64.4 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  NC State is in a good spot while Virginia is not, so we’ll take the points with the Wolfpack in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play NC STATE (+).

Cincinnati and Temple played earlier this season with the Bearcats winning by 31 points (84-53) on their home court.  That game was abnormal for Cincinnati as their offense only averages 62.4 points per game.  The Bearcats have scored 67 points or less in five of their six games since their 84-point outburst against Temple, and we expect a normal game from Cincinnati tonight.  On the road, the Bearcats are just 3-4 this season.  Their offense only averages 57.3 points per game on 41.7% shooting from the field and 29.1% shooting from the field.  Cincinnati was a 9-point and 10.5-point favorites in two of their last three road games which shows they were playing inferior opponents.  Tonight, the Bearcats will face a Temple team that is every bit as good as they are despite the earlier season result.    

Cincinnati and Temple are mirror images of one another.  Both teams love to play slow, half-court basketball.  Temple has been a different team since that 31-point loss to Cincinnati.  The Owls are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS since that defeat, and they’ve had this game circled in red since getting embarrassed.  Temple plays tenacious defense as they are only allowing 57.8 points per game on 35.7% shooting from the field and 27.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Owls are 10-2 at home this season with both losses coming in back-to-back games right before facing Cincinnati for the first time.  We expect Temple to atone for the earlier season loss in a big way, so we’ll lay the points with the Owls on Tuesday night.  

10* Play TEMPLE (-).

Kentucky is obviously having a fantastic season; the Wildcats are a perfect 23-0 SU.  However, the Wildcats have been money burners all season while going just 11-12 ATS.  Kentucky is just 1-5 ATS over their last six games, including 1-2 ATS on the road.  Kentucky’s offense hasn’t been as good on the road this season.  Overall, the Wildcats average 73.6 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field.  On the road, Kentucky averages just 65.5 points per game on 42.1% shooting from the field.  That’s 8.1 points per game less and 4% shooting less per game, so the Wildcats appear to be a bit vulnerable away from home.  Kentucky also gets a poor match-up against LSU in this game as the Tigers are one of the top three teams in the SEC in 2-point defense.  Kentucky faced the other top two teams; they won 70-64 in overtime at Texas A&M and they only beat Vanderbilt 65-57 on their home court.                 

LSU is a good team that has a lot of talent.  The Tigers are 17-6 on the season, including a strong 11-2 at home.  LSU’s two home losses have come by a combined 7 points.  The Tigers’ offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 76.8 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field.  LSU is also playing solid defense at home where they are holding opponents to just 66.8 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land.  LSU is also good on the glass, and that’s an area in which Kentucky has struggled this season.  The Tigers’ ability to get second-chance points is another key factor in this game, and that advantage will keep them in this game throughout.  We’ll take the big points with LSU in this game on Tuesday night.      

9* Play LSU (+).

Notre Dame is off an embarrassing 30-point loss at Duke on Saturday.  And the knee-jerk reaction would be to play the Irish in their next game.  However, this is an extremely poor match-up for Notre Dame, and their recent play also suggests that the Irish may be a tad overrated.  Notre Dame is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS over their last three games.  The Irish could actually be on a 1-4 SU slide and an 0-5 ATS run; they were very fortunate to win at NC State in overtime and their home win over Duke came down to the final few seconds.  Overall, Notre Dame owns 3 losses away from home this season because their defense has been unable to get stops.  The Irish allow 72.2 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land on the road.  Notre Dame’s defense has been even worse over their last five games while allowing 76 points per game on 50.7% shooting from the field and 41.65 shooting from three-point land.         

Clemson returns home off a road loss in Miami.  The Tigers are only 9-4 SU at home this season, but three of their four losses have come by 3, 4, and 5 points.  Clemson plays at an extremely slow pace, and their half-court style will frustrate Notre Dame.  The Tigers have held 20 of their 23 opponents to 69 points or less.  Clemson has held their last ten opponents to 65 points or less, including eight opponents to 59 points or less.  Overall, Clemson allows just 60.1 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 30.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Notre Dame has been held to less than 70 points three times this season; the Irish are just 1-2 SU in those games with their lone win coming by just 3 points (62-59) at Georgia Tech.  We’ll take the points with Clemson in this game on Tuesday night.    

9* Play CLEMSON (+).

Oklahoma City played one of their best games of the season yesterday; the Thunder crushed the Clippers 131-108.  That game was preceded by back-to-back emotional games against the New Orleans Pelicans, and now they must take to the road and play in the thin air and altitude of Denver on back-to-back days.  This will also be the team’s third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  Oklahoma City’s showdown win over Los Angeles sets them up to regress in this game, especially considering how well they played against the Clippers.  The Thunder scored 131 points which was their highest point total in regulation time this season.  Oklahoma City shot 52.3% (46-88) from the field and 40% (8-20) from three-point land against the Clippers.  They also connected on 81.6% (31-38) from the free throw line.  The Thunder played a perfect game, and they will regress tonight in Denver.       

Denver returns home off a 3-game road trip, and in fact, six of their last seven games have been on the road.  The Nuggets have had two full days of rest coming into tonight’s game, so they have no excuse not to come with their best effort.  Denver is just 1-12 SU over their last thirteen games.  However, with the the All-Star break on the horizon, tonight’s game provides them an opportunity to go into their time off in a positive way.  “I think it’s big for us. For our sanity,” Ty Lawson said.  “To go into the break not thinking about losing. Go out on a high note. It’ll be therapeutic for everybody.”  Head coach Brian Shaw concurs: “I want us to start out winning a game, so we can get that feeling back of what it takes to win and just feel good about ourselves going into the break.”  Denver owns a +1.2 point differential at home this season despite having a losing 12-13 record on their court.  This is simply a bad spot for the Thunder and a good spot for the Nuggets, so we’ll take the points with Denver on Monday night.    

10* Play NUGGETS (+).

Los Angeles is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Dallas.  The Clippers are playing their eighth and final game of a long road trip that has taken them to the East Coast, Canada, and Texas on two separate occasions.  Not only that, but Los Angeles is also playing their fourth game in five nights and without rest.  The Clippers played in Oklahoma City yesterday afternoon, and they got crushed 131-108 by the Thunder.  Los Angeles is now playing without Blake Griffin who had surgery on his elbow.  The Clippers’ defense has been a mess lately as they’ve allowed 102 points or more in five of their last six games.  Over their last five games, Los Angeles has given up 109.2 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Clippers will be unable to stop the potent Dallas offense in this game, especially since Los Angeles has had no time to fix their defensive issues.

Dallas is playing good basketball right now as they’ve won five of their last six games after suffering thru a 4-game losing streak.  Their lone recent loss came at Golden State, so there’s no shame in losing that game.  The Mavericks are playing like they were at the beginning of the season before they acquired Rajon Rondo.  Dallas is playing offensive-oriented line-ups without Rondo on the court, and their up-tempo style will score at will on the poor Los Angeles defense.  The Mavericks’ offense has scored 100 points or more in five straight games, and they will easily eclipse the century mark tonight.  At home, Dallas is averaging 108.5 points per game on 48% shooting from the field.  Overall this season, Los Angeles is allowing 103.6 points per game on the road.  Los Angeles is simply in terrible form and in a terrible spot, so we’ll lay the points with Dallas in this game on Monday night.

9* Play MAVERICKS (-).

Atlanta has won back-to-back home games since losing in New Orleans by 15 points (115-100) last Monday night.  The Hawks won a pair of big games; they beat the Wizards 105-96 at home on Wednesday night and they beat the Warriors 124-116 at home on Friday night.  Now they must take to the road off back-to-back big wins, and face a Memphis team that is off a loss and sure to bring their best effort.  Atlanta’s showdown win over Golden State sets them up to regress in this game, especially considering how well they played against the Warriors.  The Hawks scored 124 points which was their second highest point total of the season.  Atlanta shot 49.4% (38-77) from the field and 55.6% (15-27) from three-point land against the Warriors.  They also connected on 89.2% (33-37) from the free throw line.  The Hawks played a perfect game, and they will regress tonight against the stout Grizzlies’ defense.         

Memphis returns home off a mini 3-game road trip with their last game being a tough 1-point loss in Minnesota.  The Grizzlies have been terrific at home this season where they are 21-5 while holding their their opponents to just 95.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last five games, the Memphis defense has been tremendous in holding opponents to just 84.8 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 25.5% shooting from three-point land.  To compare, Atlanta’s defense has allowed 102.2 points per game over their last five games.  In a meeting in Atlanta last month, the Grizzlies held the Hawks to 96 points despite Atlanta hitting 52% (13-25) from three-point land in that game.  This is simply a bad spot for the Hawks and a good spot for the Grizzlies, so we’ll lay the short price with Memphis on Sunday night.    

10* Play GRIZZLIES (-).

Utah is a very good team that comes into this game with a 17-4 record.  However, 13 of their wins have come at home, and they are only 3-3 in true road games this season.  Utah is playing their third consecutive road game tonight, and it will also be their fifth road game over their last seven games.  Utah usually owns a major advantage when playing their slow pace against teams that want to get out and run.  The Pac 12 conference as a whole likes to play fast, but Colorado is the one team that plays just as slow as Utah.  That negates a huge edge for Utah, and it’s why we’ve seen these two teams play close, competitive games recently.  The first meeting this season was a 74-49 Utah win, but Colorado was missing their three best players in that game.  If we eliminate that result, the average winning margin over the previous four meetings has been just 7 points per game. 

Colorado and Utah are mirror images of one another.  Both teams love to play slow, half-court basketball.  Colorado is an experienced team that will have three of the four best players on the court tonight.  The Buffaloes play tenacious defense as they are only allowing 59.2 points per game on 37.2% shooting from the field and 28.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  Colorado also gets to the free throw line a lot, and they make the most of those trips as they are converting on 72.6% of their attempts this season.  The Buffaloes are 9-2 at home this season with both losses only coming by 2 points apiece.  We expect this game to a be a low-scoring defensive struggle, so we’ll take the points with Colorado on Saturday night.  

10* Play COLORADO (+).

Chicago’s current road trip is not going too well as the Bulls are on a 1-3 slide, including three consecutive losses.  However, the Bulls have a terrific opportunity to notch a solid win tonight in New Orleans.  Chicago comes into this game with two full days of rest, so they have no excuse not to bring their best effort.  The Bulls have been much better on the road than at home this season; Chicago is 17-9 away compared to just 13-11 at home.  Chicago already beat New Orleans this season; they won 107-100 back in late December.  The Bulls held a 54-46 point edge inside the paint in that game, and not many teams can do that against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans.  Chicago grabbed 15 offensive rebounds in that game, and that also shows that they own the match-up inside against the Pelicans.    

New Orleans is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game against Chicago.  The Pelicans are off four straight emotional games, and we do not expect them to have much left in the tank.  New Orleans beat the Clippers 108-103 as 7.5-point home underdogs, and then they  snapped Atlanta’s 19-game winning streak with a 115-100 win as 3-point home underdogs.  New Orleans then hosted Oklahoma City and lost 102-91 after blowing a double digit lead in the second half.  Last night, the Pelicans avenged that loss with a 116-113 win as 6-point underdogs in Oklahoma City.  New Orleans shot 48.2% (40-83) from the field, 55% (11-20) from three-point land, and 83.3% (25-20) from the free throw line.  Now they must wheel right back and play on back-to-back nights and face a rested Chicago team that we know will bring a top effort.  This is simply a bad spot for the Pelicans, so we’ll lay the short price with Chicago on Saturday night.    

9* Play BULLS (-).

Texas A&M and Missouri played on January 21st with the Aggies winning 62-50 on their home court.  Missouri actually led that game 31-24 at the half before Texas A&M out-scored the Tigers 38-19 in the second half.  Texas A&M is 10-1 at home this season, but just 3-3 in true road games.  The Aggies will be playing back-to-back road games after losing 69-59 in Mississippi on Wednesday night.  Texas A&M’s offense has struggled to score points away from home as they are only averaging 61.8 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land this season.  They only scored 62 points on Missouri at home, so it’s hard to imagine the Aggies’ offense having much success on the Tigers’ home court.

Missouri comes into tonight’s game off eight straight losses.  However, four of those games were on the road, so we can excuse those defeats.  In their four recent home losses, the Tigers had to play Kentucky, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Tennessee.  Those first three teams are all atop the SEC standings, so Missouri has faced a brutal schedule.  Missouri is a scrappy team that only gets blown out by superior teams, and Texas A&M is anything but that.  Missouri and Texas A&M both play at a slow pace, so this game figures to be a half-court grinder.  The Tigers match-up extremely well with Texas A&M as they have a strong 2-point defense as only 47% of their opponents’ points are scored from inside the arc.  Texas A&M’s offense is reliant on 2-point shooting (57% of their points scored), so the Aggies will have trouble scoring inside on Missouri.  In a low-scoring game, we’ll take the points with Missouri in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSOURI (+).

Syracuse is having a tumultuous season, and they come into today’s game in Pittsburgh in a very strange way.  After coming back from a 13-point deficit with just over 5 minutes left to play against Virginia Tech on Tuesday night, Syracuse announced on Wednesday that they would self-impose a post-season ban for this year.  That is simply deflating news for a struggling team, and the timing couldn’t have been any worse.  If that wasn’t bad enough, head coach Jim Boeheim then ripped one of his players to the media in a post-game press conference; the same player who led the Syracuse comeback win.  “You know Ronnie, unfortunately he believes he can make 3s. I don’t know why he believes that. There’s no reason that he should believe that and he continues to prove every night and every day that he can’t,” Boeheim said.  After hearing Boeheim rip him, Ron Patterson said he was done with shooting the ball.  “Never again,” he said while tossing bits of popcorn into his mouth.  There’s a lot of dissension with Syracuse right now, and the team may simply pack it in down the stretch.      

Pittsburgh is trending in the opposite direction as the Panthers have won back-to-back games, including a nice upset win of Notre Dame.  Pittsburgh has played a brutal schedule recently; the Panthers had to face Duke, Louisville, and Notre Dame in three of their last five games.  After beating Notre Dame, the Panthers were in a big flat spot and only beat Bryant 72-67.  Now that they got that game out of the way, we expect the Panthers to play a much better game today against Syracuse.  Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU at home this season while holding opponents to just 61.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field and 32.4% shooting from three-point land this season.  Despite the recent losses, Pittsburgh head coach Jamie Dixon senses his team is close to breaking out: “We’re not far off.”  These two teams are heading in opposite directions, so we’ll lay the points with Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play PITTSBURGH (-).

Cleveland comes into tonight’s game in Indiana on a 12-game winning streak.  However, eight of those twelve games have come on their home court, including last night’s 105-94 spotlight win over the Los Angeles Clippers.  Now the Cavaliers must take to the road and play on back-to-back nights for the fourth time during their current winning streak.  In their three other games on back-to-back nights, Cleveland won two of those games by 5 points a piece.  During their current winning streak, three of Cleveland’s four road wins have come by single digits, so it’s clear the Cavaliers have played much better at home than on the road.  Cleveland was out-scored 50-36 inside the paint last night, and that’s going to be a major factor tonight in Indiana as the Pacers rank 5th in the league in rebounding percentage.  The Cavaliers will not get easy second-chance points, so they’ll need to shoot a high percentage from the perimeter in order to win this game by margin.      

Indiana is playing good basketball right now.  The Pacers are 3-2 over their last five games after suffering thru a 7-game losing streak.  One of Indiana’s recent losses only came by 5 points, so the Pacers are 5-1 ATS over their last six games based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  Indiana also has the scheduling advantage for tonight as they will be playing their fifth consecutive home game, and just their second game over the last six days.  To compare, Cleveland will be playing their third game over the last five days with this being their second game on consecutive nights.  The Pacers own a +3 point differential over their last five games.  Indiana’s offense is in good current form as they are averaging 101.6 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This is just a bad situational and scheduling spot for Cleveland, and since Indiana is playing good basketball right now, we’ll take the Pacers plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play PACERS (+).

Phoenix has played nine of their last ten games at home, and getting out and on the road will be a good thing for the team.  The Suns were getting complacent for being home for too long, and we saw that in their play.  Phoenix opened the homestand with four consecutive wins, but they couldn’t maintain their focus and they lost three of their last five home games.  To be fair, those three losses came to the Rockets, Clippers, and Grizzlies who are some of the best teams in the West.  The Suns have had two full days of rest for tonight’s game, and we expect a peak performance, especially since they are coming in off a home loss.  Phoenix matches-up extremely well with Portland; the Suns have won the last three meetings and seven of the last nine meetings overall.  Phoenix plays up-tempo, efficient offense and that is going to cause fits for the Blazers in this game tonight.              

Portland was rolling early in the season, but the Blazers were hit with a slew of injuries which halted their good play.  Portland is just 3-8 SU over their last eleven games with the three wins coming by just 1, 4, and 7 points.  The good news for Portland is their injured players are back on the court.  The bad news is that it’s going to take time for those players to gel and get back into the rhythm they had earlier this season.  Their last game against Utah proved that point as the Blazers only won by a single point (103-102) despite all five starters scoring in double digits.  Portland is facing Phoenix at a terrible time because the Suns have a potent offense that the Blazers cannot trade points with right now.  Phoenix will prove to be too much for Portland, so we’ll take the points with the Suns in this game on Thursday night.       

10* Play SUNS (+).

Providence is a good team, but the Friars are not in good current form.  Providence is just 3-2 SU over their last five games with one of their wins coming in overtime.  The Friars are playing back-to-back road games after losing 75-66 at St. John’s on Saturday.  Providence is really struggling to shoot the ball from three-point land this season.  Coming into tonight’s game, the Friars rank dead last in the Big East conference while hitting just 27% from three-point land.  Overall, Providence is hitting just 30.3% from three-point land this season.  Their 3-point issues will be a major factor in this game since Georgetown is a terrible matchup for Providence.  The Friars score 56.1% of their points from 2-point range, but Georgetown only allows 45.3% of the points scored on them to come from 2-point range.  “It will be a grind-it-out game; that’s how they play,” Providence coach Ed Cooley said.  “I expect a physical, barroom brawl at their place.”   

Georgetown played at Providence on January 10th, and the Hoyas lost that game by 3 points (60-57) in overtime.  The Friars only shot 31.6% (18-57) from the field and 20% (3-15) from three-point land in that game.  Providence won the game at the free throw line as they held a 10-point edge over the Hoyas.  With this game being on Georgetown’s home court, we do not expect Providence to get a favorable whistle, and in fact, we expect the complete opposite.  Georgetown is 10-2 at home this season with one loss coming to Kansas, and the other loss coming to Xavier in their last home game.  Seven of the Hoyas’ ten home wins have come by 14 points or more while all six of Providence’s losses this season have come by 9 points or more.  Georgetown owns a +11.6 point differential at home this season while Providence owns a -5.6 point differential on the road.  We’ll lay the points with the Hoyas in this game on Wednesday night.       

9* Play GEORGETOWN (-).

Washington has lost three straight games and five of their last seven games overall.  On the surface, the Wizards appear to be playing bad basketball, but that’s not the case at all.  All five of  Washington’s losses have come by 8 points or less, and two of their losses came in overtime.  The Wizards have been a solid team all season, and tonight’s game in Atlanta is one they’ve had circled since losing by 31 points (120-89) to the Hawks back on January 11th.  Washington also lost the first meeting of the season against Atlanta, but that was only a 4-point defeat (106-102).  That result is a truer depiction of the two teams, and we expect tonight’s game to be as close as that first game.  The Wizards have a winning 13-10 record on the road this season, so they are certainly capable of playing up to their level away from home.      

Atlanta’s 19-game winning streak was snapped on Monday night in New Orleans.  The Hawks lost that game 115-100, and the loss confirmed the fact that they were not playing that well despite being on a long winning streak.  Atlanta is just 1-4 ATS over their last five games, and it appears that the pointspread has finally caught up to the Hawks.  Atlanta played just one good team over their recent 7-game homestand, and now tonight they’ll play a solid Washington team that is 31-18 on the season.  The Hawks were only a 4.5-point home favorite over Washington the last time they played, and now they are laying 1-point more which gives us good value on the Wizards.  We’ll take the points with Washington in this game on Wednesday night.       

10* Play WIZARDS (+).

Northern Iowa is having a fantastic season; the Panthers come into tonight’s game with a 20-2 SU record.  However, this looks like a letdown spot tonight as Northern Iowa enters off their biggest win of the season on Saturday afternoon; they beat Wichita State 70-54 as 2-point home underdogs.  That win snapped Wichita State’s 27-game conference winning streak, and Northern Iowa couldn’t have played a more perfect game.  The Panthers shot an incredible 60% (24-40) from the field and 71.4% (5-7) from three-point land.  The 70 points scored by Northern Iowa were the most points they scored over their previous nine games.  Northern Iowa must now take to the road and lay points while being in a huge letdown role; this is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Panthers.  Northern Iowa’s offense is off their best game of the season against the best team in the conference, so we expect major regression from the Panthers in this game.

Indiana State played at Northern Iowa on January 21st, and the Sycamores only lost that game by 6 points (66-60).  The Panthers shot 50% (9-18) from three-point land in that game while Indiana State only shot 28.6% (6-21) from three-point land.  The fact that the Panthers only won that game by 6 points on their home court bodes extremely well for the Sycamores in this game.  Indiana State is a perfect 5-0 SU at home in conference play this season, and Northern Iowa has not been as dominant on the road as they’ve been at home in conference play.  The Panthers lost at Evansville and only beat Illinois State by one point (54-53) and Southern Illinois by 7 points (59-52).  Northern Iowa does not have an explosive offense as they are averaging only 57.8 points per game on the road in conference play.  Indiana State's third leading scorer, Khristian Smith, is questionable tonight with a thumb injury, but this injury is overrated as Smith is the worst shooter on the team, averaging just 36.8% FG and 19.0% on three-point shots this season.  Indiana State is in a tremendous spot for an upset win, so we’ll take the points with the Sycamores as a home underdog tonight.       

10* Play INDIANA STATE (+).

Iowa State and Kansas played earlier this season with the Cyclones winning 86-81 at home.  That game was close throughout before Iowa State extended their lead to double digits.  But the impressive part is that Kansas was able to rally back on the road at one of the toughest places to play in college basketball.  Tonight’s game will be played on Kansas’ home court, and we expect them to avenge their earlier loss, especially since they also play on one of the most intimidating courts in college basketball.  Iowa State is just 2-2 SU in true road games this season, and while they only lost those games by a combined 6 points, the opponents were not nearly as good as Kansas.  Iowa State’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 74.8 points per game this season.        

Kansas is a perfect 10-0 at home this season, and they have plenty of motivation to beat Iowa State big tonight.  Kansas is playing with double revenge after losing earlier this season and also losing at home to Iowa State last season.  Nine of the Jayhawks’ ten home wins this season have come by 8 points or more with their average win coming by 16.2 points per game.  Kansas’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 62.2 points per game on 39.2% shooting from the field and 31.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Jayhawks also have a potent offense at home that is averaging 78.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 40.1% shooting from three-point land.  Kansas has a lot of motivation tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Jayhawks in this game on Monday night.       

9* Play KANSAS (-).

Atlanta has shocked the NBA this season; the Hawks come into tonight’s game with a 40-8 record.  Atlanta is currently on a 19-game winning streak, but despite winning, the Hawks are not playing good basketball right now.  Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS over their last four games, and it appears that the pointspread has finally caught up to the Hawks.  Atlanta played just one good team over their recent 7-game homestand, and now tonight they’ll play on the road for the first time since January 17th.  Atlanta is also dealing with injuries as DeMarre Carroll and Shelvin Mack are slated to miss this game.  The Hawks were only a 2.5-point home favorite over New Orleans the last time they played, and now they are laying 1-point more on the road which gives us good value on the Pelicans.                     

New Orleans is playing terrific basketball right now.  The Pelicans are 5-1 over their last six games, and they’ve been doing it without their best player, Anthony Davis.  However, Davis is slated to return to the court tonight, and with the supporting cast of the Pelicans playing well, we expect a big effort out of New Orleans.  The Pelicans play on a strong home court where they are 16-6 this season.  New Orleans owns a solid +6.8 point differential at home as they average 105.1 points per game and give up 98.3 points per game.  Over their last five games, the Pelicans’ defense has been outstanding while holding opponents to just 92 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take the points with New Orleans in this game on Monday night.       

9* Play PELICANS (+).

Seattle has played fantastic football down the stretch.  The Seahawks are 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS over their last eight games; they are 11-1 SU over their last twelve games.  As impressive as their recent run has been, we have to put it into context.  Seattle played some of the worst offenses and quarterbacks in the NFL during their winning streak.  The Seahawks faced Derek Carr, Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (2x), Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill, and Cam Newton (2x) in nine of their recent eleven wins.  Those seven quarterbacks are all terrible passers, so it should be of no surprise that Seattle’s defense gave up more than 17 points just twice in those eleven games.  Seattle faced Aaron Rodgers in their last game, and with an injured calf, he had the Packers in front by 12 points (19-7) with just over two minutes to play, and that was on the Seahawks’ strong home field.  Seattle will now face one of the best offenses and one of the best quarterbacks in the league in back-to-back games, and they won’t be so fortunate in the Super Bowl on a neutral field.

New England has an identical 14-4 record as Seattle, and both teams are 5-3 away from home this season.  One of the Patriots’ losses was in a throw away game in Week 17 when they pulled their starters early.  So in truth, the Patriots are 14-3 in meaningful games this season with one of those losses coming in Green Bay by just 5 points (26-21).  The Seahawks were just dominated on their home field by the Packers and a hobbled Rodgers, so it’s clear that the Patriots have played the better football this season.  New England’s offense is averaging 30.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 22.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense has strong seasonal numbers, but the Seahawks played an extremely weak group of opposing offenses that only averaged 22.7 points per game this season.  The Patriots average 7.7 points per game more than the opponents Seattle faced, and since New England faced strong defenses all season, their offense holds a big edge over Seattle’s defense in this game.  We’ll back New England in Super Bowl XLIX on Sunday night.  

10* Play PATRIOTS.

Colorado comes into this game off a wild 3-overtime game at USC on Thursday night.  The Buffaloes must wheel right back and play another fast-paced team on the road just two days later.  Colorado had four players play 36 minutes or more, including three guys who played 40 minutes or more.  That was the second consecutive game in which Colorado scored 90 points or more, and there’s a good shot that the Buffaloes’ offense will regress sharply in this game.  Overall, Colorado averages just 61.3 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  The Buffaloes’ defense is giving up 71.9 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 43.5% shooting from three-point land on the road.  That defense is going to get torched by a UCLA offense that plays their best basketball on their home court.            

UCLA is not having a good season, and their poor start has been well documented.  The Bruins are just 12-9 on the season, but ten of those wins have come at home.  UCLA’s offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 82.5 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 42.1% shooting from three-point land.  UCLA only lost by 6 points (62-56) at Colorado earlier this season, but that game was in the midst of a 4-game road trip that included games against Kentucky and Utah.  The Bruins actually led that game with 5 minutes left to play, so despite playing in altitude in a tough spot, UCLA gave Colorado all they wanted on their home court.  UCLA is simply a much better team at home, and with Colorado off a draining 3-overtime game, we’ll lay the points with the Bruins on Saturday night.  

10* Play UCLA (-).

Dallas is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Orlando.  The Mavericks won 93-72 last night in Miami, but that final score was misleading.  Dallas trailed by 12 points at the half before rallying in the second half and out-scoring Miami 60-27.  The Mavericks won, but their poor play continued, especially on the offensive end of the court.  Dallas has scored 98 points or less in five of their last six games, and it’s hard to imagine their offense playing any better tonight.  The Mavericks are playing on a back-to-back road set with this game also being their fourth in five nights.  Dallas played much bigger games against Memphis and Houston earlier this week, and after last night’s come from behind win, we do not expect Dallas to play with much effort in this game against the lowly Magic.

Orlando has been a competitive home team this season despite their limited talent.  The Magic will also play with a huge scheduling edge as this will be just their second game in five days.  Orlando has also been at home for the majority of the week, and with two full days off since their last game, we can expect the Magic to bring their best effort.  Orlando’s recent losses have all come against high octane offenses that can score the ball with high efficiency.  And Dallas was that team when the Magic last faced them, but the Mavericks have changed their identity since acquiring Rajon Rondo from Boston.  Chandler Parsons is questionable due to an illness and the Maverick's depth is already lacking, so the team is playing at a much slower pace now, and that alone will allow the Magic to hang in this game.  Orlando might be with Tobias Harris who is questionable with an ankle injury, but regardless this is a terrible spot for Dallas, so we’ll take Orlando as a home underdog on Saturday night.

9* Play MAGIC (+).

North Carolina and Louisville played earlier this month with the Tar Heels winning 72-71 at home.  That game was tied at the half, but the Cardinals actually led by 13 points in the second half before North Carolina rallied to steal the win.  Louisville now gets the rematch on their home court, and we expect them to avenge that earlier loss.  North Carolina has yet to play a conference road game against an upper echelon team, and since they lost by 14 points at Kentucky earlier this season, we do not expect the results to be pretty in this game.  North Carolina’s offense is good, but they are much more efficient at home, and they haven’t faced a defense as good as Louisville’s on the road this season.

Louisville returns home off back-to-back road wins, and since they lost their last home game to Duke, we expect a big effort in this game.  The Cardinals are 11-2 at home this season; their other loss came to Kentucky by just 8 points.  All eleven of Louisville’s home wins have come by 6 points or more, and three of North Carolina’s four losses have come by 5 points or more.  Louisville has an exceptional defense that is holding their opponents to just 51.8 points per game on 34% shooting from the field and 27.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Louisville was the better team in the first meeting despite losing, so we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play LOUISVILLE (-).

Notre Dame is having an excellent season, and they come into this game off their biggest win of the season.  The Fighting Irish beat Duke 77-73 as 1.5-point home underdogs on Wednesday night.  In their game before Duke, the Irish won at NC State in overtime.  Now they must wheel back on the road and lay points into a Pittsburgh team that is much better than their record indicates.  This is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Notre Dame, and the matchup does them no favors either.  Notre Dame has a tremendous offense, but they play a small-ball style that leaves them extremely vulnerable inside the paint.  Pittsburgh’s trademark is having a strong interior presence, and Notre Dame will be up against it on both ends of the court.

Pittsburgh is on a 3-game losing streak, but two of those games were on the road.  They lost their last game at Virginia Tech in overtime after blowing a 7-point lead late, so it’s not like the Panthers have been playing terrible basketball.  Their other two losses were at Duke and then Louisville in back-to-back games.  Pittsburgh is back at home where they are 9-2 this season while holding opponents to just 60.1 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land this season.  Despite the recent losses, Pittsburgh head coach Jamie Dixon senses his team is close to breaking out: “I keep telling them that I believe today is the day we are going to become that better defensive team. We’re not far off.”  This is a terrible spot for Notre Dame, so we’ll take the points with Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play PITTSBURGH (+).

Oregon State continues to fly well under the radar under new head coach Wayne Tinkle.  The Beavers are 5-2 SU over their last seven games, and they already beat Arizona this season.  Oregon State won 58-56 at home earlier this month.  Oregon State is playing a very sound, half court style of basketball that is simply frustrating their opponents.  The Beavers play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense.  Oregon State is holding their opponents to just 56.5 points per game on 36.5% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Beavers have bought into Tinkle’s system, and the team simply knows how they need to play in order to be at their best.  “We want to muddy the game up,” said Langston Morris-Walker.  “We want to play at our pace. It’s no longer a race to 80 anymore. It’s kind of nasty to watch.”  The Beavers know they can hang with Arizona, especially since they already beat them this season. 

Arizona is a very good team, but the posted spread on tonight’s game is simply way too high.  The Wildcats come into tonight’s game off one of their best performances of the season when they beat Oregon 90-56 on Wednesday night.  The Wildcats shot an incredible 59.3% (35-59) from the field and 40% (6-15) from three-point land in that game.  Arizona will be hard-pressed to come close to those numbers again, and teams following such a performance often have a sub-par offensive game in their next outing.  Arizona will win this game SU, but Oregon State is a good team that plays at an extremely slow pace which shortens the game.  We’ll take the generous points with Oregon State in this game on Friday night.           

9* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Oregon and Arizona State played earlier this season with the Ducks winning 59-56 at home.  That game was close throughout, and it was just a 2-point game with 2 minutes to play before Oregon extended their lead at the free throw line.  Tonight’s game will be played on Arizona State’s home court, and we expect them to avenge their earlier loss.  Oregon is 0-3 SU in true road games this season; they lost those road games by 8, 9, and 34 points.  The Ducks’ defense has really struggled to slow down their opponents away from home this season.  Oregon is allowing an ugly 94.3 points per game on 56.3% shooting from the field and 51.9% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.        

Arizona State got an impressive 73-55 home win over Oregon State in their last game.  The Sun Devils play on a very strong home court where they are 10-2 this season.  Nine of the Sun Devils’ ten home wins this season have come by 7 points or more with their average win coming by 17.9 points per game.  Arizona State’s defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 60 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 34% shooting from three-point land.  The Sun Devils also have a potent offense that is averaging 73.2 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona State is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Sun Devils in this game on Friday night.       

10* Play ARIZONA STATE (-).

Toronto hit a rough patch in late-December when they lost seven of nine games.  Since that poor stretch of play, the Raptors have been much better while winning five of their last six games.  The Raptors have scored 337 points in their last three games, and their offensive success will continue tonight against the poor Brooklyn defense.  Toronto’s defense has been terrific recently as they’ve held their last five opponents to just 96.2 points per game on 43.8% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land.  The Raptors’ defense will continue their strong play tonight since Brooklyn has averaged just 90.4 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field and 27.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.   

Brooklyn returns home off a 4-game road trip in which they went just 1-3 SU.  The Nets are in terrible current form as they’ve lost eleven of their last thirteen games, and their poor play will continue tonight.  The Nets’ defense has been awful as they’ve giving up 108.6 points per game on 51.4% shooting from the field and 38% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Toronto scored 105 points on the Nets in an earlier season meeting, so Brooklyn will be hard-pressed in slowing down the Raptors’ offense tonight.  Toronto is playing good basketball right now, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Friday night.    

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

Santa Clara and San Diego played earlier this month with the Broncos winning 59-56 at home.  That game was close throughout, and the Toreros actually led by 6 points with just 6 minutes left to play in the game.  San Diego now gets the rematch on their home court, and we expect them to avenge that earlier loss.  Santa Clara is just 2-5 SU in true road games this season, and they haven’t played a road game since January 10th.  The Broncos’ three conference road losses have all been blowouts; they lost by 13, 16, and 22 points.  Santa Clara’s offense has really struggled to score points away from home this season as they are only averaging 57.4 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field and 33.8% shooting from three-point land.

San Diego has only played 9 of their 21 games at home this season.  The Toreros are 6-3 in those nine home games with two of the losses coming against Gonzaga and Portland, two of the best teams in the league.  San Diego plays at an extremely slow pace while playing exceptional defense.  The Toreros are holding their opponents to just 59.4 points per game on 41% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  San Diego is off a momentum-building 77-74 home win over BYU on Saturday, and that win will propel them going forward.  San Diego is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Toreros in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play SAN DIEGO (-).

Portland was slated to a have a big season, but injuries threw them off course.  Leading scorer Kevin Bailey was out for more than a month, and point guards Alec Wintering and Bryce Pressley both missed some time.  Portland is as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season, and head coach Eric Reveno likes where his team is now.  “I feel like we’ve got the band back together,” Reveno said.  “It’s the same group we had in Nashville when we played great.  We have a lot of guys in the locker room who care and are working hard, so now just relax and play.  The energy and effort are there.  Now just finish.”  Portland lost 87-75 to Gonzaga earlier this month, but that was a 75-70 game with less than 2 minutes to play.  The Pilots know they can hang with Gonzaga, especially now that they are fully healthy.

Gonzaga is an excellent team, and they can make a deep run in the NCAA tournament this year.  However, this looks like a potential flat spot tonight, especially with a big revenge game on deck this Saturday versus Memphis.  Gonzaga comes into tonight’s game off their best performance of the season when they beat Pacific 91-60 last Saturday night.  The Zags shot an incredible 60% (33-55) from the field and 44% (11-25) from three-point land in that game.  Gonzaga played one of the best games in the efficiency era as they scored an amazing 1.48 points per possession on offense.  Gonzaga will be hard-pressed to come close to those numbers again, and teams following such a performance often have a sub-par offensive game in their next outing.  Gonzaga will win this game straight up, but Portland is a good team that is catching the Zags at the perfect time.  We’ll take the generous points with Portland as a big underdog in this game on Thursday night.           

9* Play PORTLAND (+).

Connecticut and Cincinnati played earlier this season with the Huskies winning 62-56 at home.  That game was close throughout, and the Bearcats actually led by 4 points at halftime.  It was just a 2-point game with 2 minutes to play before Connecticut extended their lead at the free throw line.  Tonight’s game will be played on Cincinnati’s home court, and we expect them to avenge their earlier loss.  Connecticut is just 2-2 SU in true road games this season; they lost their last two road games by 8 and 13 points.  The Huskies’ offense has really struggled to score points away from home this season.  Connecticut is only averaging 59.5 points per game on the road, and they will struggle to score points against a stout Cincinnati defense.  The Bearcats are only allowing opponents to score 52.7 points per game on 36.8% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.

Cincinnati plays on a very strong home court where they are 11-1 SU this season and 29-2 over their last 31 games.  Ten of the Bearcats’ eleven home wins this season have come by 6 points or more with their average win coming by 15.2 points per game.  Cincinnati wins with their defense, but their offense has played much better at home than on the road this season.  At home, the Bearcats are averaging 64.8 points per game on 46% shooting from the field.  Cincinnati is slated to be a #8 or #9 seed in the NCAA tournament, but they can improve to a #4 or #5 seed if they hold serve at home the remainder of this season.  The Bearcats’ defense will prove to be too much for Connecticut in this game, so we’ll lay the points with Cincinnati on Thursday night.       

9* Play CINCINNATI (-).

Oregon State continues to fly well under the radar under new head coach Wayne Tinkle.  The Beavers are 5-1 SU over their last six games, and they are simply undervalued in the pointspread.  Oregon State is playing a very sound, half court style of basketball that is simply frustrating their opponents.  The Beavers play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense.  Oregon State is holding their opponents to just 55.7 points per game on 35.9% shooting from the field and 27.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Beavers have bought into Tinkle’s system, and the team simply knows how they need to play in order to be at their best.  “We want to muddy the game up,” said Langston Morris-Walker.  “We want to play at our pace. It’s no longer a race to 80 anymore. It’s kind of nasty to watch.”

Arizona State has already lost to Oregon State this season when the Beavers won 55-47 back on January 8th.  The Sun Devils’ offense was unable to get anything going in that game as they shot just 39.5% (17-43) from the field and 19% (4-21) from three-point land.  Arizona State’s offense is predicated on making three pointers, but as noted above, Oregon State has an excellent three-point defense.  The Sun Devils will be unable to score points consistently in this game, and that was the case in the first meetings.  Arizona State is just 2-5 SU over their last seven games, and one of their wins only came by 6 points.  Oregon State’s slow pace and their strong defense will frustrate Arizona State once again, so we’ll take the Beavers plus the points in this game on Wednesday night. 

10* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Sacramento is in a strange situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Toronto.  The Kings haven’t played a game since last Friday night in California against the Warriors.  Sacramento was scheduled to play the Knicks in New York on Tuesday night, but that game was postponed due to snow.  The Kings then had to arrange different travel to get to Toronto, and they’ve had no time to get into any type of routine which is of utmost importance to NBA players.  Sacramento is also in terrible current form as they’ve lost six consecutive games, and their poor play will continue tonight since they’ll be rusty from not playing in four days.  The Kings’ defense has been awful on the road this season where they are giving up 106.4 points per game.  Toronto scored 117 points on the Kings’ home court in their last meeting, so Sacramento will be hard-pressed to slow down the Raptors’ offense tonight.

Toronto hit a rough patch in late December when they lost seven of nine games.  Since that poor stretch of play, the Raptors have been much better, winning four of their past five games.  The Raptors played last night in Indiana, and they easily beat the Pacers 104-91.  Toronto has scored 218 points in their last two games, and their offensive success will continue tonight against the poor Sacramento defense.  Overall, the Raptors are 17-7 SU at home this season, and eleven of those wins have come by 7 points or more.  Toronto’s defense has been terrific recently as they’ve held their last five opponents to just 93.6 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 32.1% shooting from three-point land.  Toronto is playing better basketball, and since they are catching the Kings in a poor spot, we’ll lay the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

Nebraska has improved in each of the last three seasons, and this year they were set to breakout with a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament.  But the Cornhuskers were besieged with injuries, and they already have seven losses on the season.  However, Nebraska is fully healthy now with a deep rotation, and against teams with similar talent like Michigan, the Cornhuskers can hold their own.  Nebraska plays at a slow pace and they have a solid defense that is holding opponents to just 61.4 points per game on 38% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three-point land.  Since joining the Big 10 conference, Nebraska has beat every team except Michigan, so tonight’s game is huge for the Cornhuskers.  “We owe them, man, we owe them,” senior Leslee Smith said.  “That’s like the biggest thing.”  Head coach Tim Miles concurs: “It’s been brought up. This is a very important week. We need to play well, and when I say play well, I mean win.”

Michigan is really struggling; the Wolverines are just 12-8 on the season.  Michigan is 6-4 over their last ten games, but five of their wins have come by single digits, including their last three wins which all came by 5 points or less.  Michigan is off a heartbreaking 69-64 home overtime loss to Wisconsin on Saturday; they were 10.5-point underdogs in that game.  “What I see is a terrific defensive team that is as good as anybody we’ve played,” Michigan head coach John Beilein said.  “We’ve just gone from the frying pan to the fire with Wisconsin and now Nebraska. That’s two teams that are really hard to score points on.”  The Wolverines will be playing with a hangover tonight, especially since they’ve handled Nebraska in the past.  Michigan’s offense has struggled to score points consistently this season as they are only averaging 63.4 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field.  Michigan lost their best player, Caris LeVert, for the season, and five other regulars have been slowed recently by illness or injury.  “We’re pretty banged up,” Beilein said.  In a low-scoring game, we’ll take the points with Nebraska in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play NEBRASKA (+).

Boston is currently on a 6-game West Coast road trip; the Celtics are 2-2 so far on their trip.  Tonight’s game in Utah is definitely their toughest game of the trip.  The Celtics beat Portland and Denver on back-to-back nights, but the Blazers played without LeMarcus Aldridge and the Nuggets played without Ty Lawson.  Boston was extremely fortunate to catch those teams without their best players, and if those teams were fully healthy, it’s unlikely the Celtics would have won those games.  Boston will now play in the thin air and altitude of Utah on a back-to-back set after taking the Warriors to the wire last night in a close 114-111 loss.  The Celtics will also be playing their fourth game in five nights, so this is a terrible scheduling and situational spot for Boston.     

Utah is glad to be back at home after playing seven of their last eleven games on the road.  The Jazz are only 8-12 SU at home this season, but they have a positive point differential, so they’ve played much better basketball than the record indicates.  Utah head coach Quin Snyder made a lineup change two games ago; he flipped the point guards, making Dante Exum the starter with Trey Burke running the second unit.  The change has paid off as the Jazz have won their last two games while scoring 101 and 108 points while shooting 49.3% (74-150) from the field and 45% (27-60) from three-point land.  Utah’s offense will now face a Boston defense that is in poor current form as the Celtics have allowed 104.6 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This is simply a terrible spot for Boston, so we’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Monday night.    

10* Play JAZZ (-).

Detroit started the season with an ugly 5-23 record.  After releasing Josh Smith, the Pistons went on a major run and they were playing like the team we thought they’d be coming into this season.  Since Smith has been gone, Detroit is 12-4.  However, the Pistons lost 101-86 in Milwaukee last night, and now they must travel to Toronto while playing on a back-to-back set.  Even worse for Detroit is that Brandon Jennings got hurt last night with an apparent Achilles injury.  Jennings is what makes the offense go, and head coach Stan Van Gundy knows how much the Pistons will miss him on the court: “He has been our catalyst. It’s a major, major loss.”  Van Gundy has no time to fix his rotations, and an already bad Detroit bench will be even thinner now which will give the Raptors a major edge in this game.  

Toronto hasn’t been playing the best of basketball lately, but the Raptors do return home off a 2-1 winning road trip.  Toronto was off yesterday, so we expect them to come with a big effort tonight, especially since they’ve lost their last two home games.  Overall, the Raptors are 16-7 at home this season, and eleven of those wins have come by more than tonight’s posted spread.  Toronto is also playing with revenge after Detroit won 114-111 on the Raptors’ home court thirteen days ago.  Jennings scored 34 points for the Pistons in that game, so not having to guard him is a big break for the Raptors.  Toronto has a very good second unit, and they will hold a major edge over the limited Detroit second unit in this game.  We expect a peak performance by the Raptors, so we’ll lay the points with Toronto in this game on Sunday night.     

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

Notre Dame is having an excellent season.  The Fighting Irish come into tonight’s game with an 18-2 record, including a perfect 3-0 mark in true road games.  However, two of those three wins have come by a combined 4 points against good competition.  We can disregard their 25-point win at Virginia Tech who is one of the worst teams in the conference.  Notre Dame is now playing their first true back-to-back road game of the season, and they will be playing an NC State team that is playing terrific defense right now.  Notre Dame has a tremendous offense, but they play a small-ball style that leaves them extremely vulnerable inside the paint.  The Wolfpack  have a strong interior presence, and Notre Dame will be up against it on both ends of the court.  Against a similarly built, but lesser team in Georgia Tech, the Irish only scored 62 points while escaping with a 3-point win.  NC State is bigger and much better than Georgia Tech, so this game does not project well for Notre Dame. 

NC State returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 65-60 loss at a very good Miami, FL team.  The Wolfpack also lost their last home game, a close 81-79 loss to North Carolina.  NC State will come with a focused effort tonight, and we expect them to beat Notre Dame on their strong home court.  The Wolfpack are 12-3 at home where they are averaging 75.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field.  NC State’s defense is holding their opponents to just 63 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 30.7% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  NC State is in a good spot for a big win, so we’ll take the points with the Wolfpack in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play NC STATE (+).

Washington State plays at an extremely fast pace under new head coach Ernie Kent.  The Cougars are all offense and no defense, and they are completely lost when forced to play in a half court, slow-paced game.  The Cougars have been held to less than 70 points nine times this season.  Washington State is a terrible 1-8 SU in those games with their lone win coming by just 3 points (69-66) over California.  The Cougars will be forced into a half-court grinder, and they are not built to win in low-scoring games.  Washington State will also have to deal with the thin air and altitude of Denver, and they are also on the dreaded back-to-back road game swing after playing in Utah on Wednesday night.  The Cougars’ offense has struggled on the road all season as they only average 63.1 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field.  Things won’t get any easier tonight against a stout Colorado defense that is holding opponents to just 59.3 points per game on their home court this season.               

Colorado is a completely different team than Washington State.  The Buffaloes play at an extremely slow pace while frustrating their opponents in the half court.  Washington State’s offense relies heavily on scoring points from beyond the arc.  But since they’ll wear down as this game goes on, we do not expect them to shoot a high percentage from 3-point land.  Colorado has a strong interior defense, and only allow 49% of the points scored on them to come from 2-point range, so the majority of Washington State’s points will have to come from the perimeter.  Colorado has pace, scheduling, and matchup advantages in this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Buffaloes on Saturday night.           

9* Play COLORADO (-).

USC is in their second season under head coach Andy Enfield; he of the Florida Gulf Coast NCAA tournament run fame.  Enfield has struggled to implement his frenetic style of play at USC as he simply doesn’t have the right personnel to run his schemes.  The Trojans are in poor current form as they’ve lost five of their last six games in conference play.  USC’s defense has allowed 75.8 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Trojans’ offense has been unable to help as they are only averaging 65.6 points per game on 42.2% shooting from the field and 26.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  USC’s offensive troubles will continue in this game against the stout Oregon State defense.

Oregon State is quietly having a very good season.  The Beavers are flying well under the radar under new head coach Wayne Tinkle.  He has Oregon State playing a very sound, half court style of basketball that is simply frustrating their opponents.  The Beavers play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense.  Oregon State is holding their opponents to just 51.9 points per game on 33.5% shooting from the field and 25.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Beavers have bought into Tinkle’s system, and the team simply knows how they need to play in order to be at their best.  “We want to muddy the game up,” said Langston Morris-Walker.  “We want to play at our pace. It’s no longer a race to 80 anymore. It’s kind of nasty to watch.”  Oregon State’s style will frustrate USC, so we’ll lay the points with the Beavers in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play OREGON STATE (-).

UCLA is not having a good season, and their poor start has been well documented.  The Bruins are just 11-8 on the season, but the team is playing much better basketball right now.  UCLA was on a 3-game winning streak going into their last game at Oregon State, but we can easily forgive the Bruins for that loss.  We had a Best Bet on Oregon State over UCLA simply because the Beavers were going to grind UCLA in a slow-paced, half-court game.  That’s exactly what happened in UCLA’s 66-55 loss.  UCLA needs to play fast in order to be a their best, and they will get their preferred pace today against Oregon.  The Bruins have a good offense that is averaging 72.4 points per game.  UCLA will score at will on a poor Oregon defense that has allowed 70 points or more in five of their last nine games.    

Oregon was in a tremendous spot for a blowout win in their last game against a terrible USC team.  The Ducks only won that game 75-67 as they shot just 36.2% (21-58) from the field and 32% (8-25) from three-point land.  Oregon was able to get by USC while shooting poorly, but that won’t be the case in this game against UCLA.  The Ducks are in poor current form as they are just 2-3 SU over their last five games with a negative 4.8 points per game scoring differential in those games.  Oregon’s defense has allowed 79.2 points per game on 47% shooting from the field over their last five games.  To compare, UCLA’s defense has allowed just 67.6 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field over their last five games.  UCLA has played a brutal schedule against Oklahoma, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Utah.  They are getting a major class relief in this game today, so we’ll take the points with the better team on Saturday afternoon.         

9* Play UCLA (+).

Illinois comes into this game with a 13-7 record, but twelve of those wins have come at home or on a neutral court.  The Illini are just 1-4 SU in true road games with all four losses coming by 8 points or more.  Illinois has struggled to score points on the road this season as they are only averaging 60.4 points per game on 37.4% shooting from the field and 29.5% shooting from three-point land.  Illinois is also ravaged by injuries right now with four key contributors out of action.  “There’s a lot of things happening that make things very, very fluid,” head coach John Groce said.  “Of course we’re playing lineups that are different from what we played prior. We don’t have that luxury right now.”  Illinois won their last game at home over Purdue despite shooting 35% (21-60) from the field and 30% (3-10) from three-point land.  They are not going to be competitive on the road while shooting that poorly, especially against a strong offensive opponent. 

Minnesota is a team we’ve played against twice over their last three games.  We won both of those games, but the Golden Gophers were in bad match-ups and pace scenarios for those two games.  The opposite is true now as Minnesota holds all the advantages in this game.  Both teams want to play fast, up-tempo basketball and that style suits Minnesota extremely well, especially at home.  The Golden Gophers are averaging 84.4 points per game on 51.1% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Illinois’ poor offense will be unable to trade points with Minnesota.  The Golden Gophers’ last two home losses have come against explosive and efficient offenses, and Illinois’ offense is anything but that as detailed above.  This is a good spot for Minnesota to get an easy blowout win, so we’ll lay the points in this early game on Saturday afternoon.     

9* Play MINNESOTA (-).

Houston lost for us at Golden State on Wednesday night, but we have no hesitation in coming right back with the Rockets tonight.  The Warriors are simply a bad match-up for the Rockets, but Houston matches-up extremely well against their opponent tonight, the Phoenix Suns.  The Rockets have won the last three meetings against the Suns while scoring 100, 115, and 122 points.  Houston has shown a strong ability to bounce back off a loss this season, so we expect a big effort tonight.  The Rockets are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS based on tonight’s posted line when playing off a SU loss, including a perfect 3-0 SU off a loss to the Warriors.  Houston has an explosive offense that has scored 102 points or more in 15 of their last 17 games.  Phoenix has one of the worst defenses in the league, so the Rockets’ scoring ways will continue in this game.      

Phoenix is on a 4-game winning streak, but those wins have come against teams in terrible current form.  The Suns also let all four of those opponents come back from double digit deficits, and that speaks volumes about their poor defense.  Phoenix plays at an ultra-quick pace, but that plays right into the strength of the Rockets’ offense.  The Suns’ defense is in poor current form as they’ve allowed 106.8 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 40.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Houston will score at will on the Suns, and since they match-up well and play good off a loss, we’ll take the Rockets plus the points in this game on Friday night.      

10* Play ROCKETS (+).

Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The Thunder are on a 4-game winning streak, and they’ve won five of their last six games overall.  Oklahoma City is finally over the .500 mark on the season as they are currently 22-20 on the season, and they need every win they can get in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the court near Thanksgiving, and since then, the Thunder have gone 18-8 compared to 4-12 without those two on the court.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City is averaging 110.8 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field.  The Thunder have won the last three meetings against the Hawks while scoring 100 points or more in every game.       

Atlanta has certainly been the surprise team in the NBA this season.  The Hawks come into tonight’s game with an incredible 35-8 record, including an 18-3 record on their home court.  There’s no real knocks on the Hawks, but they have played an extremely weak schedule, and that’s especially true in recent games.  Atlanta owns wins over the Pacers, Pistons, Celtics, and Sixers in four of their last six games.  Their other two wins did come over the Bulls and Raptors who have good seasonal records, but both of those teams are in poor current form as they are a combined 6-14 over their last 20 games.  Oklahoma City is in tremendous form, so the Hawks are definitely taking a major step-up in class for this game.  We’ll take the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Friday night.       

9* Play THUNDER (+).

USC is in their second season under head coach Andy Enfield; he of the Florida Gulf Coast NCAA tournament run fame.  Enfield has struggled to implement his frenetic style of play at USC as he simply doesn’t have the right personnel to run his schemes.  The Trojans are in poor current form as they’ve lost four of their last five games in conference play.  USC’s defense has allowed 76.6 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 40.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Trojans’ offense has been unable to help as they are only averaging 66.6 points per game over their last five games.  USC is not in good current form, and they will be facing an opponent that will be primed for a big effort.    

Oregon returns home off back-to-back road losses.  The Ducks are 11-2 at home this season with eight of those wins coming by 10 points or more.  Oregon needs to play fast in order to be a their best, and they will get their preferred pace tonight against USC.  The Ducks have a good offense that is averaging 77.2 points per game at home this season.  Oregon will score at will on a USC defense that is in poor current form; they’ve allowed 78 points or more in four of their last five games.  The Ducks also own a tremendous matchup advantage in this game as they have a strong 2-point defense and only allow 49% of opponents’ points to be scored inside the arc.  USC has a weak 3-point shooting team (20% of their points scored), so they will be unable to score consistently in this game.  Oregon is simply the better team, and since they are in a good spot for a big win, we’ll lay the points with the Ducks in this game on Thursday night.    

10* Play OREGON (-).

Washington started this season at 11-0, but the Huskies are just 2-4 over their last six games.  Four of those games came on their home court, and they lost the two road games by 6 and 8 points.  Washington will now be forced into a half-court grinder, and the Huskies are not built to win in low-scoring games.  The Huskies will also have to deal with the thin air and altitude of Denver, further limiting their chances at playing at a fast pace.  The Huskies’ offense has struggled on the road all season as they only average 66 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 27.8% shooting from three-point land.  Things won’t get any easier tonight against a stout Colorado defense that is holding opponents to just 60.1 points per game on their home court this season.               

Colorado is a completely different team than Washington.  The Buffaloes play at an extremely slow pace while frustrating their opponents in the half court.  Washington’s offense relies heavily on scoring points inside the arc as 57% of the points they score come from 2-point range.  However, Colorado has a strong interior defense, and only allow 49% of the points scored on them to come from 2-point range.  Colorado’s offense scores 52% of their points from 2-point range, and they will have plenty of success tonight since Washington’s defense allows 57% of the points scored on them to come from 2-point range.  Colorado has the pace advantage and the matchup advantage in this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Buffaloes on Thursday night.           

9* Play COLORADO (-).

UCLA is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Bruins play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, UCLA’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Bruins will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Oregon State plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  UCLA has been held to less than 70 points six times this season with the Bruins going 0-6 SU and ATS in those games.  It’s highly unlikely that UCLA will score more than 70 points tonight since Oregon State has held 15 of their 17 opponents to less than 70 points this season; they’ve held all ten of their home opponents to 64 points or less.   

Oregon State is quietly having a very good season.  The Beavers are flying well under the radar under new head coach Wayne Tinkle.  He has Oregon State playing a very sound, half court style of basketball that is simply frustrating their opponents.  The Beavers play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense.  Oregon State is holding their opponents to just 51.6 points per game on 34% shooting from the field and 25.7% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Beavers have bought into Tinkle’s system, and the team simply knows how they need to play in order to be at their best.  “We want to muddy the game up,” said Langston Morris-Walker.  “We want to play at our pace. It’s no longer a race to 80 anymore. It’s kind of nasty to watch.”  Oregon State’s style will frustrate UCLA, so we’ll back the Beavers in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play OREGON STATE (-).

Houston will be extremely focused for a prime effort tonight against Golden State.  The Rockets view the Warriors as their rival, but the three games this season have been dominated by Golden State.  Houston is 0-3 against Golden State, losing by 11, 12, and 25 points.  The most recent loss was an embarrassing 131-106 loss on their home court last Saturday night.  That 25-point loss was even more humiliating considering the Rockets’ players were talking trash in the media prior to that game.  Golden State had something to prove, and they blew out the Rockets.  Tonight’s game provides Houston the perfect opportunity to atone for that ugly loss, and we fully expect the Rockets to bring their ‘A’ game tonight.     

Golden State has been terrific this season; the Warriors come into tonight’s game with a fantastic 33-6 record.  But the team is off back-to-back perfect offensive games in which they scored a total of 253 points on 54.5% (94-172) shooting from the field and 44.9% (22-49) shooting from three-point land.  It’s hard to imagine Golden State being able to duplicate those incredible offensive numbers tonight, especially since they have nothing more to prove against Houston.  The Warriors’ defense had given up 105 points or more in three of their previous four games before holding Denver to just 79 points on Monday afternoon.  Houston’s offense is in terrific current form as they averaged 110.8 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take Houston plus the points on Wednesday night.      

9* Play ROCKETS (+).

Orlando has been a competitive team this season despite their limited talent.  The Magic come into tonight’s game in Detroit off an embarrassing 28-point (127-99) home loss to Oklahoma City on Sunday night.  That ugly defeat set head coach Jacque Vaughn off, and he put the team thru a physical and grueling practice on Tuesday before heading to Michigan to face the Pistons.  “The entire practice was about competition,” Vaughn said.  “It was black jerseys vs. white jerseys the entire time in every drill. That’s the mindset that we have to have. You’re coming into this game and it’s competition and there’s only going to be one winner.”  Orlando’s best player, Victor Oladipo, senses the practice has the team ready for Detroit: “There’s no question that guys were upset that we lost on Sunday and they wanted to win Tuesday in practice. You could see the competitive nature of our guys in practice and it was good for us.”

Detroit started the season with an ugly 5-23 record.  After releasing Josh Smith, the Pistons have gone on a major run and they are playing like the team we thought they’d be coming into this season.  Since Smith has been gone, Detroit is 11-3.  However, two of their three losses have come over their last four games as the team is not playing the same dominant basketball as they were when they were on their 7-game winning streak.  Three of the Pistons’ last four wins have come by just 5, 3, and 2 points with their lone double-digit win coming over lowly Philadelphia.  Orlando is also playing with motivation after losing by 23 points to Detroit at home last month.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Orlando on Wednesday night.    

9* Play MAGIC (+).

Missouri comes into tonight’s game off three straight losses with two of them being close defeats.  The Tigers lost by 6 points on the road at Auburn, and in their last game, Missouri came up short in a 59-51 home loss to Tennessee.  The Wildcats are a scrappy team that only gets blown out by superior teams, and Texas A&M is anything but that.  Missouri and Texas A&M both play at a slow pace, so this game figures to be a half-court grinder.  The Tigers match-up extremely well with Texas A&M as they have a strong 2-point defense as only 47% of their opponents’ points are scored from inside the arc.  Texas A&M’s offense is reliant on 2-point shooting (58% of their points scored), but the Aggies will have trouble scoring inside on Missouri.

Texas A&M is off an impressive 67-64 comeback win at LSU on Saturday afternoon.  That win was somewhat expected as the Aggies’ slow-paced style really frustrated an LSU team that likes to play up-tempo basketball.  Prior to that win, Texas A&M was just 3-3 SU in their previous six games with two of the wins coming by 9 points or less.  Texas A&M’s offense has struggled to score points recently as they are only averaging 61.4 points per game on 37.9% shooting from the field and 23.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  In a low-scoring game, we’ll take the points with Missouri in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play MISSOURI (+).

Minnesota snapped their 5-game losing streak with an 89-80 home win over Rutgers on Saturday afternoon.  Despite the win, the Golden Gophers failed to cover the pointspread for the sixth consecutive time.  Minnesota is just 12-7 after opening the season with an 11-2 record.  They are just 2-5 overall on the road, including 0-3 in Big 10 road games.  Minnesota’s offense has really struggled on the road in conference play while scoring just 68, 58, and 57 points in their three games.  Things are not going to get any easier tonight, especially against a strong Nebraska defense.  Minnesota’s defense is also in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 72.6 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field over their last five games.

Nebraska has improved in each of the last three seasons, and this year they were set to breakout with a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament.  But the Cornhuskers were besieged with injuries, and they already have seven losses on the season.  However, Nebraska is fully healthy now with a deep rotation, and against teams with similar talent like Minnesota, the Cornhuskers can hold their own.  Nebraska plays at a slow pace and they have a solid defense that is holding opponents to just 61.2 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 29.1% shooting from three-point land.  Minnesota is just 1-5 SU against power conferences this season when held to less than 70 points with all five losses coming by 4 points or more.  We’ll lay the points with Nebraska in this game on Tuesday night. 

10* Play NEBRASKA (-).

Kansas State is only 11-7 on the season, but the Wildcats have been a competitive bunch.  Five of Kansas State’s seven losses this season have come by single digits, and a similar outcome will be good enough in tonight’s game against Iowa State.  The Wildcats play at an extremely slow pace, and their half court defense and interior height have frustrated opponents all season.  Kansas State’s defense is allowing just 62.4 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the field and 34.2% shooting from three-point land this season.  Overall, Kansas State has held 12 straight opponents to 66 points or less, including all five Big 12 opponents.

Iowa State is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Cyclones play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Iowa State’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Cyclones will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Kansas State plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  Iowa State is just 1-2 SU when held to less than 70 points this season with their lone win coming by just 2 points (63-61) at home over Oklahoma State.  The Cyclones are also off their big 86-81 home win over Kansas on Saturday night, so this is a letdown spot as well.  Kansas State will slow this game to a crawl, and since Iowa State can’t play in a slow-paced game, we’ll take the points with the Wildcats in this game on Tuesday night.                     

9* Play KANSAS STATE (+).

Indianapolis’ win last week in Denver can easily be discounted.  The Colts simply beat a team with an old and injured Peyton Manning at quarterback while Denver was playing for a soon to be gone coaching staff.  While all of that is true, we were still impressed with the Colts in that game, and we fully expect them to give New England all they can handle in this game.  Indianapolis has already played the Patriots this season, and they lost 42-20 at home as a 3-point home favorite.  The Colts also played in New England in the playoffs last season, and they got crushed 43-22 as 7.5-point underdogs.  The past results certainly put some doubt into the Colts’ chances, but Indianapolis is simply playing too good right now to put much stock into the previous outcomes.  The Colts are averaging 28.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play this season.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against defenses that are only allowing 23.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Indianapolis’ offense has been just as good on the road where they are averaging 28.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

New England is 0-5 ATS in their past five AFC Championship game appearances.  They are not invincible, and that was clearly evident in their 35-31 win over Baltimore last week.  The Patriots trailed by 14 points twice in that game, so they were somewhat fortunate to win and move on.  New England wasn’t able to get much separation from their opponents down the stretch this season, and in fact, three of New England’s last four wins have come by single digits with the average margin of victory only being 4.7 points per game.  The Patriots’ defense gave up 31 points and 428 yards of offense to the Ravens last week.  Overall this season, New England is allowing 5.6 yards per play against offenses that are only averaging 5.5 yards per play.  The Patriots’ defense is also dealing with injury issues at cornerback, and their best cover guy, Darrelle Revis, may be a step too slow to shutdown T.Y. Hilton if he has to cover him in this game.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the Colts plus the points in the AFC Championship on Sunday night.                    

9* Play COLTS (+).

Green Bay didn’t play their best football last week, but the Packers did just enough to beat Dallas 26-21 and advance.  Dallas was a much better team than people realized, and Green Bay’s close game was expected as we had a selection on the Cowboys in that game.  Green Bay will now take to the road and play in Seattle for the second time this season.  The Packers were crushed 36-16 by the Seahawks in the season opener, and that result combined with Green Bay’s close call last week has inflated the point spread on this game.  My power ratings only make Seattle a 4-point favorite, so we are getting outstanding line value with the Packers in this game.  Green Bay is a very good team with a potent offense.  The Packers are averaging 30.1 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that are only allowing 22.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.

Seattle has played fantastic football down the stretch.  The Seahawks are on a current 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS run and they are 10-1 SU during their past eleven games.  As impressive as their recent run has been, we have to put it into context.  Seattle played some of the worst offenses and quarterbacks in the NFL during their winning streak.  The Seahawks faced Derek Carr, Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (2x), Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill, and Cam Newton (2x) in nine of their recent ten wins.  Those seven quarterbacks are all terrible passers, so it should be of no surprise that Seattle’s defense gave up more than 17 points just once in those ten games.  Seattle will now face one of the best offenses and one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and while Aaron Rodgers may be hobbled with his calf injury, he is still significantly better than the quarterbacks Seattle has faced.  Rodgers played extremely well last week with 316 passing yards (9.0 ypp) and a 3/0 TD/INT ratio.  This line is simply way too high, so we’ll take the points with Green Bay in the NFC Championship game on Sunday afternoon.    

10* Play PACKERS (+).

BYU is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Cougars play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, BYU’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Cougars will not get their preferred style of play tonight as St. Mary’s plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  St. Mary’s has held 14 of their 17 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  BYU has been held to less than 70 points twice this season.  The Cougars are 0-2 in those games, losing by 4 and 6 points.  BYU will also be shorthanded for tonight’s game as three key contributors are likely to miss this game with injuries. 

St. Mary’s is 14-3 on the season, and they come into tonight’s game on an 8-game winning streak.  St. Mary’s plays at an extremely slow pace, and their half court defense and interior height have frustrated opponents all season.  The Gaels’ defense is allowing just 62.2 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field and 31.4% shooting from three-point land this season.  St. Mary’s has held nine consecutive opponents to 68 points or less, including seven of those opponents to 60 points or less.  St. Mary’s will slow this game to a crawl, and since BYU can’t play in a slow-paced game, we’ll lay the points with the Gaels in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play ST. MARY’S (-).

Mississippi and Arkansas play a similar style of basketball as both teams love to run up and down the court while getting easy baskets in transition.  The Rebels have been quite impressive on both ends of the court this season, and they’ve been competitive in their losses.  Five of Mississippi’s six losses this season have come by 7 points or less, and their lone blowout loss came against TCU who plays a very slow, half-court style which frustrates the Rebels.  Tonight’s game in Arkansas will allow Mississippi to play at their preferred pace, and they match-up extremely well against the Razorbacks.  The Rebels attack the paint as 51% of their points scored come from inside the arc.  Arkansas has a soft interior defense as 53% of the points scored on them come from inside the arc.  Mississippi’s offense has been terrific on the road where they are averaging 78.2 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land.      

Arkansas is off a 74-69 loss in Tennessee in their last game.  The Razorbacks were stymied in the half-court, and their offense simply could not generate enough points inside the paint.  Arkansas will face a similar dilemma tonight even though they will get to play at their preferred fast pace.  The Razorbacks score 53% of their points from 2-point range, but Mississippi has one of the best 2-point defenses in the country.  The Rebels only allow opponents to score 41% of their points from 2-point range.  Mississippi’s weakness is 3-point defense, but Arkansas only scores 27% of their points from beyond the arc.  Mississippi holds the edges on both ends of the court, and since they will also get their preferred pace, we’ll take the points with the Rebels in this game on Saturday night.                   

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (+).

Oregon State is quietly having a very good season.  The Beavers are flying well under the radar under new head coach Wayne Tinkle.  He has Oregon State playing a very sound, half court style of basketball that is simply frustrating their opponents.  The Beavers play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense.  Oregon State is holding their opponents to just 56.4 points per game on 36.9% shooting from the field and 28.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Beavers have bought into Tinkle’s system, and the team simply knows how they need to play in order to be at their best.  “We want to muddy the game up,” said Langston Morris-Walker.  “We want to play at our pace. It’s no longer a race to 80 anymore. It’s kind of nasty to watch.”

Washington State is a completely different team than Oregon State.  The Cougars play at an extremely fast pace under new head coach Ernie Kent.  Washington State is all offense and no defense, and they are completely lost when forced to play in a half court, slow-paced game.  The Cougars have been held to less than 70 points seven times this season.  Washington State is a terrible 1-6 SU in those games with their lone win coming by just 3 points (69-66) over California.  This line has gone nuts because of the recent suspension of Oregon State’s Victor Robbins right before tipoff in their last game at Washington.  This game is all about pace, so the Beavers will not be hampered by the loss of Robbins in this game as they’ll need to win it with their defense anyway.  We’ll take the points with the Beavers in this game on Saturday night.               

9* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Northwestern comes into tonight’s game off three straight losses with two of them being close defeats.  The Wildcats took Michigan State to overtime before losing 84-77 on the road, and in their last game, Northwestern came up just short in a 72-67 home loss to Illinois.  The Wildcats are a scrappy team that only gets blown out to superior teams, and Michigan is anything but that.  Northwestern and Michigan both play at a slow pace, so this game figures to be a half-court grinder.  The Wildcats match-up extremely well with Michigan as they have a strong 3-point defense and a weak 2-point defense.  Michigan’s offense is reliant on 3-point shooting (37% of their points scored) as only 45% of the points they score come form inside the arc.

Michigan is really struggling; the Wolverines are just 10-7 on the season.  Michigan is just 4-6 over their last ten games with three of their four wins coming by 9 points or less.  Michigan’s offense has struggled to score points consistently this season as they are only averaging 64.4 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land.  Michigan will now face another very good defense as Northwestern is only allowing 62.4 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field this season.  In a low-scoring game, we’ll take the points with Northwestern in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

Washington and Brooklyn played last night with the Nets winning 102-80 on the Wizards’ home court.  That game was not a good spot for Washington as they were coming off four games in which they played the Bulls twice, Hawks, and Spurs.  All four of those teams are high profile clubs, and since the Wizards were off back-to-back wins over the Spurs and Bulls, it was easy for them to be flat for the lowly Nets last night.  Tonight’s game will be a different story, especially since Washington was embarrassed by 22 points on their home court.  “We had no focus, no energy, lack of respect for your opponent and the game,” Washington coach Randy Wittman said.  “And that’s what happens.”  The Wizards will certainly be focused and ready to atone for last night’s ugly defeat.         

Brooklyn has been a mediocre team all season.  The Nets are just 17-23 on the season, and last night’s win snapped a 7-game losing streak.  But that win was more about what Washington failed to do right rather than what Brooklyn actually did right.  The Nets will be hard-pressed to beat the Wizards again, especially since Brooklyn will likely sit their best defensive player, Kevin Garnett.  He rarely plays on back-to-back nights, so the Nets will likely be without their best rim protector.  Washington’s starters got plenty of rest in the blowout loss as five starters played less than 31 minutes.  To compare, three of Brooklyn’s five starters played 31 minutes or more and Garnett was not one of them.  Prior to last night, the Nets’ defense had allowed 314 points in their previous three games, and we expect the Wizards’ offense to bounce back strong off a poor performance.  We’ll lay the points with Washington in this game on Saturday night.       

9* Play WIZARDS (-).

Denver and Dallas just played on Wednesday night with the Nuggets winning 114-107.  We had a Best Bet on Denver in that game, and we’ll back them once again tonight for all of the same reasons.  Denver was well-rested with four days off going into that game, so tonight’s game is just their second over a 6-day span.  Denver is also in good current form; the Nuggets are 5-0 SU over their last five games.  The Nuggets have scored 101 points or more in eight of their last nine games.  Over their last five games, Denver is averaging 109.8 points per game on 51.5% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land. 

Dallas is not in good current form right now.  They should be on a 4-game losing streak, but the Mavericks came back from a 10-point deficit with just about three minutes left to play to beat Sacramento in overtime.  Dallas will be playing their eight game over the last fourteen days, and since six of those games came on the road, this is a terrible scheduling spot for the Mavericks.  Dallas has given up 446 points in their last four games.  Overall, the Mavericks allow 102.8 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 37% shooting from three-point land.  Dallas has allowed 104 points or more in their last four games, so they cannot be trusted when laying this many points, especially against a Denver team in good current form.  We’ll take the Nuggets plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play NUGGETS (+).

Golden State has been terrific this season; the Warriors come into tonight’s game with a fantastic 31-5 record.  But it seems that the team is looking ahead, and trying to preserve their players for the playoffs.  Golden State will rest Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala tonight, and their absence  will have a major impact on this game.  Those two guys are Golden State’s best defenders, and without them on the court, the Warriors will be easy to score upon both inside and out on the perimeter.  Golden State owns three wins over Oklahoma City this season, but the December 18th meeting is the game in which both teams were healthy.  The Warriors were at home for that game, and they only won 119-114 despite Kevin Durant getting hurt right before the half and missing the rest of the game.  At full strength, Oklahoma City matches-up extremely well with Golden State, and that will be evident tonight.

Oklahoma City lost for us last night, but we’re willing to come right back with the Thunder in tonight’s game for all of the same reasons.  The Thunder are currently 18-20 on the season, and they need need to go on a major winning streak in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Oklahoma City was rusty from a 5-day layoff last night as they got out-scored 40-18 in the first quarter.  But the Thunder out-scored the Rockets 83-72 over the final three quarters, and that’s a promising sign for tonight’s game.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the court near Thanksgiving, and since then, the Thunder have gone 14-8 compared to 4-12 without those two on the court.  Oklahoma City has won their last four home games, and since they are getting points on their strong home court, we’ll take the Thunder plus the points on Friday night.

9* Play THUNDER (+).

Nebraska has improved in each of the last three seasons, and this year they were set to breakout with a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament.  But the Cornhuskers were besieged with injuries, and they already have six losses on the season.  However, Nebraska is fully healthy now with a deep rotation, and we saw the team they projected to be over their last two games.  The Cornhuskers beat Rutgers 65-49, and they beat Illinois 53-43.  Nebraska head coach Tim Miles likes where his team is headed: “I am excited to get this team going and get better and better.”  The Cornhuskers play at a slow pace and they have a solid defense that is holding opponents to just 60.7 points per game on 37.7% shooting from the field and 27.6% shooting from three-point land. 

Wisconsin is a very good team that will likely make a deep run in the NCAA tournament if they can get completely healthy.  The Badgers are not healthy right now as starting point guard Traevon Jackson brook his foot in their last game, and center Frank Kaminsky is returning from a concussion.  Wisconsin lost their last game at Rutgers, a team Nebraska just beat by 16 points.  The Badgers haven’t been winning by margin lately as their last home game was only a 7-point win over Purdue.  This game will be a slow-paced, low-scoring defensive slugfest, and that makes the points extremely valuable.  We’ll take the points with Nebraska in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play NEBRASKA (+).

Oregon State is quietly having a very good season.  The Beavers are flying well under the radar under new head coach Wayne Tinkle.  He has Oregon State playing a very sound, half court style of basketball that is simply frustrating their opponents.  The Beavers play at one of the slowest paces in the country while playing outstanding defense.  Oregon State is holding their opponents to just 56.4 points per game on 36.6% shooting from the field and 27.9% shooting from three-point land.  The Beavers have bought into Tinkle’s system, and the team simply knows how they need to play in order to be at their best.  “We want to muddy the game up,” said Langston Morris-Walker.  “We want to play at our pace. It’s no longer a race to 80 anymore. It’s kind of nasty to watch.”

Washington started this season at 11-0, but the Huskies have since lost four consecutive games.  One of those losses was an inexcusable home defeat to Stony Brook, and that game exposed Washington’s phony undefeated record.  The Huskies lost at California and then at Stanford, and in a bounce back game at home against their in-state rival, they lost to Washington State as 11.5-point favorites.  Washington will now be forced into a half-court grinder, and the Huskies are not built to win in low-scoring games.  The Huskies are struggling on offense right now as they’ve shot just 41.8% (104-249) from the field in their last four games.  Things won’t get any easier tonight against the stout Oregon State defense.  We’ll take the points with the Beavers in this game on Thursday night.               

9* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Oklahoma City will begin an important stretch of games tonight when they play in Houston.  The Thunder are currently 18-19 on the season, and they need need to go on a major winning streak in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Oklahoma City comes into tonight’s game with a full five days of rest, so they’ve had plenty of time to practice and get their new pieces acclimated with the new rotation.  On the surface, Oklahoma City seems to be slumping, but we have to put their record into perspective.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the court near Thanksgiving, and since then, the Thunder have gone 14-7 compared to 4-12 without those two on the court.  Oklahoma City is 5-3 over their last eight games, and since they are off a win with time to prepare, we expect a big effort tonight.   

Houston comes into tonight’s game off a bad loss in Orlando last night.  The Rockets lost that game 120-113, and their defense played terribly once again.  Over their last five games, Houston’s defense has allowed 98 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field.  Houston opened the season at 15-3, and that strong record was mainly due to their strong defense.  Since Thanksgiving, the Rockets are just 15-9, so their play has obviously slipped.  Houston beat Oklahoma City in an ugly 69-65 game back in mid-November, but three Thunder starters did not play in that game.  Houston is in a poor scheduling spot, and since this game is much bigger for the rested Thunder, we’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City on Thursday night.      

9* Play THUNDER (-).

Dallas is not in good current form right now despite winning in Sacramento in overtime last night.  They should be on a 3-game losing streak as the Mavericks trailed for the majority of that game, and they were down 10 points with just about three minutes left to play.  Dallas was also fortunate that DeMarcus Cousins fouled out in regulation, and that Rudy Gay was lost in the first quarter due to a knee injury.  Those two guys are the top scorers for the Kings, so Dallas got a very fortunate win last night.  Off that energy-sapping win in overtime, the Mavericks must play on a back-to-back set in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  Dallas will be playing their sixth road game over their last seven games.  This will also be their seventh game over the last thirteen days.  Dallas has given up 332 points in their last three games.  Overall, the Mavericks allow 102.5 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land.  Dallas has allowed 100 points or more in 14 of their 20 road games this season.

Denver is well-rested for this game as they come in off four full days of rest.  Denver is also in good current form; the Nuggets are 4-0 SU over their last four games.  The Nuggets have played much better at home this season as 11 of their 17 wins have come in Denver.  On their home court, Denver is averaging 104.1 points per game, and since Dallas’ defense is in terrible form and poor on the road, the Nuggets will easily eclipse the century mark tonight.  Denver’s offense has been terrific lately as they’ve averaged 107.2 points per game on 49.3% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Dallas is in poor form and they are in a terrible situational spot, so we’ll lay the points with Denver in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Illinois comes into this game with an 11-6 record, but ten of those wins came with their best player, Rayvonte Rice, on the court.  Illinois won their first game without Rice on the court last Wednesday night when they beat #11 Maryland 64-57 as 1-point home underdogs.  The Illini regressed off that win as they lost 53-43 at Nebraska in their last game.  Illinois has struggled to score points on the road this season as they are only averaging 57.5 points per game on 36.1% shooting from the field and 28.6% shooting from three-point land.  Illinois will now face another very good defense as Northwestern is only allowing 61.8 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field this season.      

Northwestern comes into tonight’s game off back-to-back losses, so we fully expect a big effort, especially since Illinois is their in-state rival.  The Wildcats had to play Wisconsin and Michigan State in their last two games, so they are taking a major step-down in class for this game.  Northwestern was impressive in their last game as they took Michigan State to overtime before losing 84-77.  The Wildcats are 7-3 at home this season, and considering their last home game resulted in an embarrassing 81-58 loss to Wisconsin, this is a pretty big game that may determine the rest of Northwestern’s season.  We’ll take the points with Northwestern in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

UCLA is not having a good season, and their poor start has been well documented.  The Bruins are just 10-7 on the season, but the team is playing much better basketball right now.  UCLA has won back-to-back games over Stanford and California, so they come into this rivalry game with plenty of confidence.  UCLA needs to play fast in order to be a their best, and they will get their preferred pace tonight against USC.  The Bruins have a good offense that is averaging 72.8 points per game.  UCLA will score at will on a USC defense that is in poor current form; they’ve allowed 78 points or more in three of their last four games.  The Bruins will also own a tremendous matchup advantage in this game as they have a strong 2-point defense and only allow 46% of opponents’ points to be scored inside the paint.  USC has a weak 3-point shooting team, so they will be unable to score consistently in this game.    

USC is in their second season under head coach Andy Enfield; he of the Florida Gulf Coast NCAA tournament run fame.  Enfield has struggled to implement his frenetic style of play at USC as he simply doesn’t have the right personnel to run his schemes.  The Trojans are in poor current form as they’ve lost three of their last four games in conference play.  USC’s defense has allowed 71.2 points per game on 44% shooting from the field over their last five games.  The Trojans’ offense has been unable to help as they are only averaging 66.2 points per game over their last five games.  UCLA has played a brutal schedule against Oklahoma, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Utah.  They are getting another major class relief in this game tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the better team.         

9* Play UCLA (-).

Iowa State is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Cyclones play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Iowa State’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Cyclones will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Baylor plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  Iowa State has played two similar, slow-paced teams this season; they lost 64-60 to South Carolina and 72-63 to Maryland.  Overall, Iowa State is just 1-2 SU when held to less than 70 points this season with their lone win coming by just 2 points (63-61) at home over Oklahoma State.     

Baylor is off a 66-59 overtime road win at TCU on Saturday afternoon.  That was a nice win for Baylor, especially since they were coming off a 56-55 home loss to Kansas in their previous game.  Baylor plays at an extremely slow pace, and their half court defense and interior height have frustrated opponents all season.  The Bears’ defense is allowing just 52.8 points per game on 37.7% shooting from the field and 27.4% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Overall, Baylor has held 14 of their 15 opponents to 66 points or less, including all nine of their home opponents.  Baylor will slow this game to a crawl, and since Iowa State can’t play in a slow-paced game, we’ll lay the points with the Bears in this game on Wednesday night.                     

9* Play BAYLOR (-).

Dallas is not in good current form right now.  The Mavericks have lost back-to-back games after their defense allowed a total of 228 points.  Dallas will be playing their fifth road game over their last six games.  This will also be their sixth game over the last twelve days.  Dallas has to play in Denver tomorrow night, so they will have to carefully manage themselves in order to have something left for their next game.  Dallas has played little defense on the road this season as they are giving up 102.2 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  Overall, Dallas has allowed 100 points or more in 13 of their 19 road games this season.  Dallas is 8-5 SU in those thirteen wins, but five of the eight wins have come by 5 points or less.  

Sacramento is in good current form; the Kings are 3-2 SU over their last five games.  At home, the Kings have been competitive in their recent seven games with four wins.  Their three losses have come by a total of 20 points.  Sacramento played in Dallas back on November 11th and they held a 24-point lead in that game.  The Kings still led by double digits in the third quarter, so that game showed that the Kings match-up well with the Mavericks.  Sacramento’s offense has been terrific lately as they’ve averaged 104 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 36.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  There’s value on the Kings in this game, so we’ll take the points in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play KINGS (+).

Iowa is a good team that is extremely well-coached by Fran McCaffery.  The Hawkeyes have actually played better on the road than at home this season.  Iowa is a perfect 2-0 in true road games while they have two out of conference losses at home.  The Hawkeyes are a team that needs to face an opponent that plays at a quick tempo to be at their best; they won at North Carolina earlier this season.  Iowa will get their pace against Minnesota tonight, so we expect a good effort from the Hawkeyes.  Iowa’s defense has been fantastic this season as they are only giving up 60.2 points per game on 38.5% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense has been even better on the road where they are only allowing 60 points per game on 34.4% shooting from the field and 21.3% shooting from three-point land.             

Minnesota is a reeling team right now.  The Golden Gophers have lost four consecutive games after opening the season with an 11-2 record.  Granted, three of those four losses were on the road.  But aside from Maryland, the competition was mediocre at best.  Minnesota’s offense is in terrible current form as they’ve scored 68 points or less in regulation time in their last four games.  Things are not going to get any easier tonight, especially against a strong Iowa defense.  Minnesota’s defense is also in terrible form as they’ve allowed 70 points or more in five of their last six games.  Iowa is the better team, so we’ll take the points with the Hawkeyes in this game on Tuesday night.        

10* Play IOWA (+).

Michigan and Ohio State are bitter rivals, and their games are often close.  This series has been dominated by the Wolverines lately as they’ve won the last three meetings.  Ohio State’s last win over Michigan came by just 3 points, so the results show that Michigan simply matches-up extremely well versus Ohio State.  The Wolverines play a tricky style under head coach John Beilein, and since he changed the Michigan rotation, the team has played their best basketball of the season.  Michigan is 4-1 over their last five games; the Wolverines went 0-4 in their previous four games.  The Wolverines come into tonight’s game off a confidence-building home win over Minnesota, a game they trailed by 9 points with just over nine minutes left to play.  Michigan won their last conference road game at Penn State, so they’ll have plenty of confidence going into this game.    

Ohio State comes into this game off a 69-66 loss in Indiana on Saturday afternoon.  The Buckeyes may also be flat for this game considering they likely partied last night after the football team won the National Championship.  Ohio State teams under head coach Thad Matta have had a reputation as a strong defensive club that suffocated teams in the half court.  This year’s team is the complete opposite as their defensive play has been below average this season.  They’ve allowed 69 points or more in three of their last four games, and since they’ve allowed Michigan to score 70 points or more in the last three meetings, the Buckeyes will once again have trouble with the Wolverines’ offense.  We’ll take the big points with Michigan in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play MICHIGAN (+).

Arkansas is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Razorbacks play an up-tempo style for 40 full minutes while wearing out their opponents in the process.  Their style gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Arkansas’ offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Razorbacks will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Tennessee plays at one of the slowest paces in the country.  Arkansas played one similar team on the road this season, and they lost 68-65 at Clemson in overtime.  Arkansas is just 2-2 SU in true road games this season with their two wins coming by just 6 and 4 points despite playing fast and scoring 78 and 79 points in those games.         

Tennessee is off an embarrassing home loss to Alabama in their last game on Saturday afternoon.  The Volunteers only scored 38 points in that 18-point loss (56-38), and it’s a good thing that they’ll play another game soon in order to atone for that poor showing.  Tennessee shot just 31.1% (14-45) from the field and 11.8% (2-17) from three-point land.  The Volunteers’ offense will play much better tonight, especially against an Arkansas defense that is allowing 77.5 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Tennessee’s defense has held all eight of their home opponents to 64 points or less this season, and since Arkansas can’t play in a slow-paced game, we’ll take the points with the Vols in this game on Tuesday night.                     

9* Play TENNESSEE (+).

Ohio State has been ultra-impressive in their last two games.  The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big 10 championship game, and they beat Alabama 42-35 in the Sugar Bowl.  Ohio State did that with their third string quarterback, Cardale Jones, which makes the wins even more impressive.  However, both of those wins came against similar teams as both Wisconsin and Alabama play power football, looking to win games with their big and physical offensive lines while running a pro style offense.  Those teams also have a similar look on the defensive side of the ball as they use their size and strength to overpower opponents.  Ohio State is built in a similar fashion, so the match-ups for the Buckeyes couldn’t have been any better.  The Buckeyes will face an Oregon team that is completely different than the teams they just played, and they are at a huge disadvantage since they’ve only had ten days to prepare for this game.  Ohio State did not face a team with the skill and speed of Oregon all season, and with this game inside a dome on a fast track, the Ducks’ quickness edge will be even more pronounced, especially as the game goes on.      

Oregon has steamrolled their opponents all year.  Twelve of Oregon’s thirteen wins have come by 12 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 29.7 points per game.  The Ducks have an explosive offense that averages 47.2 points per game on an incredible 7.4 yards per play.  Those stellar offensive numbers came against a collection of defenses that allowed 31.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Ohio State’s defense has strong seasonal numbers, but keep in mind they did not face an explosive offense like Oregon’s all season.  The Buckeyes’ defense faced a slate of offenses that only averaged 28.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Oregon’s offense averages 18.9 points per game more and 1.7 yards per play more than the average of Ohio State’s opponents.  Ohio State’s defense is definitely facing the best offense they’ve seen all season, and the Buckeyes will be hard-pressed at slowing down the Ducks.  Oregon’s defense has faced a slate of explosive offenses that averaged 30.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Ducks held those teams to just 22.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Oregon is simply the better team on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Ducks in the National Championship Game on Monday night. 

10* Play OREGON (-).

Illinois comes into this game with an 11-5 record, but ten of those wins came with their best player, Rayvonte Rice, on the court.  Illinois won their first game without Rice on the court on Wednesday night when they beat #11 Maryland 64-57 as 1-point home underdogs.  The Illini will regress off that win, especially since they have to take to the road and face a tough Nebraska defense.  Illinois has struggle to score points on the road this season as they are only averaging 62.3 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 31.9% shooting from three-point land.  Illinois will now face a very good Cornhuskers’ defense that is only allowing 61.9 points per game on 38.4% shooting from the field and 28.3% shooting from three-point land this season.      

Nebraska has improved in each of the last three seasons, and this year they were set to breakout with a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament.  But the Cornhuskers were besieged with injuries, and they already have six losses on the season.  However, Nebraska is fully healthy now with a deep rotation, and we saw the team they projected to be in their 65-49 win over Rutgers on Thursday night.  The Cornhuskers hold a huge height advantage in this game, so they will dominate the paint against Illinois.  Nebraska head coach Tim Miles likes where his team is headed: “I am excited to get this team going and get better and better.”  This is a much bigger game for Nebraska, so we’ll lay the points on Sunday night.

9* Play NEBRASKA (-).

Indianapolis played their season opener in Denver on a Sunday night, and the Broncos won 31-24.  However, that game was not nearly as close as the 7-point margin suggests.  The Colts were dominated from the opening kick off; they trailed 24-7 at the half and 31-10 with just 8 minutes left to play.  Indianapolis scored two late touchdowns with one coming after a successful onside kick.  The Colts had an easy game last week at home against a shorthanded Cincinnati team that was missing four key starters in that game, two on each side of the ball.  Indianapolis is in for a much stiffer challenge in this game, especially since they have to take to the road and play outside in the cold, thin air, and altitude of Denver.  The Colts have been a much weaker team on the road this season; their defense gave up 28.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play away from home.  Those poor numbers came against a weak slate of offenses that only averaged 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.        

Denver coasted down the stretch, and the Broncos used that time to get rested and healthy for the playoffs.  The Broncos are a perfect 8-0 SU at home this season with seven of their eight wins coming by 7 points or more.  Denver’s offense has been unstoppable at home where they are averaging 35.4 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  Those outstanding offensive numbers have come against a strong slate of defenses that only allow 21.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Denver’s offense torched the Colts’ defense in the first meeting, and there’s no reason they won’t do it again in this game.  Indianapolis played three playoff teams on the road this season, and the results were not pretty.  The Colts lost 31-24 in Denver, 51-34 in Pittsburgh, and 42-7 in Dallas.  We expect another blowout loss by Indianapolis, so we’ll lay the points with Denver in this game on late Sunday afternoon.               

10* Play BRONCOS (-).

Dallas didn’t play their best football last week, but the Cowboys did just enough to beat Detroit 24-20 and advance.  The Cowboys will now take to the road where they are a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as a road underdog.  Dallas’ offense has been terrific lately as they’ve scored 44, 42, 38, 41, and 24 points over their last five games.  Overall, Dallas is averaging 28.9 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against a good collection of defenses that are only allowing 23.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Quarterback Tony Romo is having the best season of his career as he led the NFL in completion percentage (69.9%), yards per pass attempt (8.5), and quarterback rating (113.2) during the regular season.  Dallas also has a very good running game that is averaging 142.5 yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush.  The Cowboys will have success on the ground against a Green Bay run defense that allows 4.3 yards per rush.     

Green Bay is a very good team, but we see the Cowboys and Packers much closer than the point spread indicates.  The Packers are a perfect 8-0 SU and 6-1-1 ATS at home this season, so they’ve been tough on their home field.  However, four of their home wins did come by 10 points or less, including a pair of wins by 6 and 5 points.  Green Bay’s offense is potent, and there’s really no negatives to cite.  But quarterback Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a calf injury which may hinder his mobility some, and that may give Dallas a nice little edge.  Green Bay’s defense is prone to giving up points against good offenses; they allowed 36 points to the Seahawks, 44 points to the Saints, 21 points to the Patriots, and 37 points to the Falcons.  Dallas is much better than people realize, so we’ll take the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play COWBOYS (+).

Carolina comes into this game on a 5-game winning streak, but we fully expect their season to come to an ugly end on Saturday night.  The Panthers had a losing record in the regular season, and losing teams that make the playoffs tend to get blown out if they won their first playoff game.  Since 2002, there have been seven teams, including Carolina, to make the playoffs with an 8-8 record or worse, and five of those teams won their first playoff game.  In their next playoff game, all five teams lost by 11 points or more with their average loss coming by 20 points per game.  Carolina faced a slew of dead teams down the stretch, and their win over Arizona last week was not impressive, especially since they failed to capitalize on the Cardinals’ atrocious play.  The Panthers’ offense is terrible, and we’ll be surprised if they score more than 10 points in this game.  In their last three games against Seattle, the Panthers have scored 9, 7, and 12 points.  All three of those games came in Carolina, and playing a playoff game in the toughest stadium in the NFL is going to be a nightmare for the weak Panthers’ offense.      

Seattle closed the season on a major roll; the Seahawks went a perfect 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS since November 23rd.  While the Seahawks did play a bunch of weak teams with weak quarterbacks in those games, they are facing the same situation in this game.  Seattle is the superior team across the board in this game, and their strength of running the ball will be too much for Carolina to stop.  The Seahawks averaged 172.6 rushing yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush this season.  They put those numbers up against a slate of defenses that only allowed 111.3 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  Over the last month of the season, Carolina’s defense was gouged on the ground for 4.8 yards per rush while ranking 22nd in rush defense.  Seattle is 7-1 at home, and their last four home wins have all come by double digits, so we’ll lay the points with the Seahawks in this game on Saturday night.           

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

South Carolina comes into this game off a 72-68 home loss to Florida on Wednesday night.  The Gamecocks were in a tough spot for that game after they just beat #16 Iowa State 64-60 as 6.5-point underdogs at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.  South Carolina figured to play with a hangover, especially since they were going to face a Florida team that plays slow, half-court basketball; the Gamecocks shot just 40.8% (20-49) from the field.  South Carolina will play much better in this game as they will be able to play their style since Mississippi also likes to run and play up-tempo basketball.  South Carolina is a much improved team in head coach Frank Martin’s third year.  The Gamecocks are 13-6 over their last 19 games dating back to last season with all four of their losses this season coming by 5 points or less.

Mississippi is off a heartbreaking 89-86 overtime loss in Kentucky on Tuesday night.  The Rebels played an exceptional game as they shot 49.2% (29-59) from the field and 52.9% (9-17) from three-point land.  They also hit 86.4% (19-22) from the free throw line.  The Rebels can’t play any better than they did, and since they lost after leading with 3 minutes to play in regulation time, we expect Mississippi to play tonight’s game with a major hangover.  The Rebels do have a good offense, but South Carolina plays terrific defense.  The Gamecocks are holding their opponents to just 59 points per game on 28.6% shooting from the field and an incredible 19.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  These two teams are equals, but this is a terrible situational spot for Mississippi, so we’ll take the points with South Carolina in this game on Saturday night.            

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (+).

Baylor and TCU both come into this game off back-to-back losses, but the Horned Frogs are in a better position to bounce back strong with a win.  Baylor just hosted league powerhouse Kansas on Wednesday night, and the Bears lost 56-55.  They lost and only scored 55 points on their home court despite hitting 53.3% (8-15) from three-point land.  Kansas was bad from beyond the arc as they hit just 29.4% (5-17), and the Jayhawks only had 6 free throw attempts in the entire game.  Baylor had no excuse for losing that game, and since they must now take to the road on short rest, we do not expect a good effort from the Bears in this game.  Baylor has played three true road games this season, going 2-1 SU with their wins coming by just 3 and 4 points.  The Bears are averaging just 66 points per game on 42.1% shooting from the field away from home this season.     

TCU also lost on Wednesday night, but their 58-53 defeat at Kansas State was due to terrible shooting.  The Horned Frogs shot just 41.3% (19-46) from the field and an ugly 11.1% (1-9) from three-point land; leading scorer Kyan Anderson only had 8 points.  It’s almost impossible to win on the road while shooting as bad as TCU did, so the fact they only lost by 5 points speaks volumes about their defense.  Overall, the Horned Frogs are holding opponents to just 55.2 points per game on 35.3% shooting from the field and 33.7% shooting from three-point land.  TCU’s stout defense will limit Baylor’s offensive production, especially since the Bears have struggled to score points on the road this season.  TCU’s offense will play much better in this game considering they average 78.3 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 40.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll back TCU in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play TCU (+).

Stanford came thru for us with a Best Bet winner when they beat Washington 68-60 in overtime on Sunday night.  That was their second overtime game in their last four games, so the Cardinal are not dominating their opponents.  Stanford has played three true road games so far this season, and they are just 1-2 SU in those games with the lone win coming in overtime.  The Cardinal defense has been non-existent away from home this season.  Stanford is giving up 79 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  That defense is going to get torched by a UCLA offense that plays their best basketball on their home court.            

UCLA is not having a good season, and their poor start has been well documented.  The Bruins are just 8-7 on the season, but seven of those wins have come at home.  UCLA’s offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 85 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 42.4% shooting from three-point land.  The Bruins will own a tremendous matchup advantage in this game as they have a strong 2-point defense and only allow 46.3% of opponents’ points to be scored inside the paint.  Stanford has a weak 3-point shooting team, so they will be unable to score consistently in this game.  UCLA has played their last four games on the road, and they’ve played a brutal schedule against Oklahoma, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, and Utah.  They are getting a major class relief tonight, and we expect a big effort from UCLA in this game.         

10* Play UCLA (+).

Houston is a much better team than New York, but this game comes down to margin of victory more than anything else.  The Rockets are very likely to win this game, but there’s reason not to expect Houston to win this game in a blowout.  Houston has alternated wins and losses over their last six games; they come in off a 105-93 win in Cleveland last night.  Houston has played back-to-back road games on back-to-back nights four times this season.  The Rockets are 3-1 SU in that second game, but only one of those wins came by more than tonight’s posted spread.  Overall, Houston is 12-5 SU on the road this season, but they are just 3-14 ATS based on tonight’s point spread.       

New York is having a miserable season.  The Knicks come into tonight with an embarrassing 5-33 record, and they are playing without their best players.  However, this is primetime game against a good opponent, and if the Knicks are ever going to bring a focused effort, tonight will be the game.  The Knicks are just 3-15 SU at home this season, but they are 13-5 ATS based on tonight’s posted point spread.  So if we combine the two teams spread records based on tonight’s line, we have a 27-8 ATS situation that favors New York.  My power ratings only make Houston a 9.5-point favorite, so there is also value on the Knicks in this game.  We’ll take the big points with New York in this game on Thursday night.    

9* Play KNICKS (+).

Oklahoma City is not in good current form right now.  The Thunder are just 4-4 over their last eight games with three of their wins coming by 8 points or less.  Oklahoma City got waxed by 26 points (117-91) at Golden State on Monday night.  That was the fourth straight game in which the Thunder allowed 102 points or more; they’ve allowed 101 points or more in nine of their last ten games overall.  Over their last five games, Oklahoma City allowed 108 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field and an ugly 41.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Thunder simply cannot be trusted when laying points on the road right now, especially with their defense in total disarray.

Sacramento has not been good since the unexpected firing of head coach Mike Malone.  The Kings are just 3-7 over their last ten games, but five of those games came on the road.  At home, Sacramento was competitive in their recent five games with a pair of wins while their three losses came by a total of 22 points.  If the Kings are going to snap out of their recent funk, tonight will be the game.  Sacramento hosted Oklahoma City on December 16th and they had to play that game without DeMarcus Cousins.  The Kings were a 7.5-point underdog in that game, and that came when the Thunder were on a 6-game winning streak.  Cousins will be on the court tonight, and the Thunder are in bad form, yet they are once again 7.5-point favorites which doesn’t make much sense.  There’s value on the Kings in this game, so we’ll take the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play KINGS (+).

Colorado and Utah are mirror images of one another.  Both teams love to play slow, half-court basketball.  Colorado is an experienced team that will have three of the four best players on the court tonight.  The Buffaloes play tenacious defense as they are only allowing 60.8 points per game on 38.9% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land.  Colorado also gets to the free throw line a lot, and they make the most of those trips as they are converting on 74.6% of their attempts this season.  The Buffaloes are strong on the glass as well, and they’ve dominated Utah with a 65-46 rebounding edge in the last two meetings.        

Utah is a very good team that comes into this game with a 12-2 record, including a perfect 10-0 mark at home.  However, the Utes usually own a major advantage when playing their slow pace against teams that want to get out and run.  The Pac 12 conference as a whole likes to play fast, but Colorado is the one team that plays just as slow as Utah.  That negates a huge edge for Utah, and it’s why we’ve seen these two teams play close, competitive games recently.  The average winning margin over the last four meetings has been just 7 points per game.  We expect this game to a be a low-scoring defensive struggle, so we’ll take the big points with Colorado on Wednesday night.  

9* Play COLORADO (+).

Memphis has been one of the most consistent teams in the NBA all season.  The Grizzlies come into tonight’s game in Atlanta with a 25-9 record, including an impressive 11-5 mark on the road.  Memphis has only been an underdog seven times this season; the Grizzlies went 5-2 ATS in those games while winning four games outright.  Memphis went on a 4-game losing streak in mid-December, but since then, the Grizzlies have gone 4-1 SU over their last five games.  Their lone loss was excusable as they were playing in Denver on the second night of a back-to-back set.  The Grizzlies are more of an offensive team this season as they are averaging 101.9 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field.    

Atlanta beat us on Monday night, but we have no hesitation in playing against the Hawks once again.  Atlanta is returning home off a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS West Coast road trip in which they beat the Trail Blazers and Clippers as underdogs.  Now they return home and have to lay points into a very good Memphis team that thrives when getting points.  Atlanta has been labeled as the “Spurs of the East” because head coach Mike Budenholzer was a former San Antonio assistant.  The Hawks are playing the same style as the Spurs, but Memphis has had success against their schemes.  The Grizzlies are 2-1 against San Antonio this season with their lone loss only coming by 6 points.  Memphis knows how to attack and defend Atlanta’s pace and space style of play, so that gives the Grizzlies a nice advantage for this game.  This is a tough spot for Atlanta, so we’ll take the points with Memphis in this game on Wednesday night.    

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Providence is having a solid season with an 11-4 SU record, but they come into tonight’s game off a road loss at Marquette on Saturday afternoon.  The Friars stayed on the road after that game, so they’ll be ready with a big bounce back effort tonight against Butler.  The Friars beat Butler twice last season, including an 87-81 win in Hinkle Fieldhouse; that win gives them a lot of confidence for this game, especially since the Friars have yet to win a true road game this season.  “We want to get us a road win,” said head coach Ed Cooley.  “That’s our challenge.  We’ve had three road games that didn’t go our way.  We’ll be ready.”  The team is still full of confidence as well:  “As a team we’ve played great,” said Kris Dunn.  “We’re really focused and have great team chemistry right now.”

Butler is also having a good season as they own an identical 11-4 SU record as Providence.  The Bulldogs return home off back-to-back road games at Villanova, a 67-55 loss, and at St. John’s which resulted in a 73-69 win as 3.5-point underdogs.  Butler has good seasonal statistics at home, but they’ve yet to play a really good team.  Their toughest home opponent thus far was Belmont who plays in a much weaker conference.  Tonight’s game against Providence is a stiff test for Butler, especially since the Friars are playing off a loss.  We expect this game to be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Providence in this game on Tuesday night.    

10* Play PROVIDENCE (+).

Marquette is surprisingly having a decent season so far as they come into tonight’s game against Georgetown with a 9-5 record.  The Golden Eagles are only playing with eight scholarship players this season after two of their better players transferred out a few weeks ago.  Marquette is basically a two-man team with Luke Fischer and Matt Carlino, but tonight they will likely be a one-man team as Fischer will face a bevy of big post players from Georgetown who will neutralize him inside the paint.  That means Carlino will have to carry the Marquette offense, and one guy is not going to keep the Golden Eagles in this game, especially on the road.  Marquette is 0-2 in true road games this season, losing at Ohio State and at DePaul who is a bottom team in the Big East conference.   

Georgetown is 9-4 on the season, including a 7-1 record at home.  Their lone home loss came to Kansas by just 5 points (75-70), so there’s no shame in that defeat.  The Hoyas played a tough non-conference schedule against teams like Wisconsin, Butler, and Florida.  Georgetown is playing at a much quicker pace this season, and their offense has flourished because of it.  The Hoyas are averaging 77.8 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Georgetown’s defense has also been rock solid at home where they are holding opponents to just 62.4 points per game on 36.9% shooting from the field and 29.9% shooting from three-point land.  Georgetown is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night. 

9* Play GEORGETOWN (-).

Atlanta is the surprise team of the NBA so far this season.  The Hawks come into this game with an impressive 25-8 record.  As good as they’ve been, we have to keep in mind that Atlanta plays in the terrible Eastern Conference.  The Hawks have feasted on those weak teams, and they’ve yet to face good teams from the West in consecutive games.  Atlanta will complete their 3-game mini West Coast road trip tonight in Los Angeles, and it will be their toughest challenge.  The Hawks did win in Utah and in Portland, but the Clippers are better and a 3-0 road trip sweep is highly unlikely for Atlanta.  The Hawks’ defense has been terrible on the road in their last three games against strong offensive teams from the West; they gave up 107 points to the Blazers, 111 points to the Thunder, and 110 points to the Rockets.  Atlanta’s defense will give up a lot of points to the Clippers tonight.         

Los Angeles has won three straight games, and four of their last five games overall after going thru a mini slump in which they went just 1-3 SU in their previous four games.  The Clippers are a strong 15-4 at home this season where they are averaging 106.3 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land.  The Clippers’ bench is much better now that Spencer Hawes has returned from injury; the second unit would repeatedly give away leads built by the starters.  That’s exactly what happened when Los Angeles lost 107-104 in Atlanta two weeks ago; the Clippers led that game by 13 points at one point.  The Clippers are also rested and ready for this revenge game, and they’ve had time to practice as their schedule lightened up over the last week.  We expect a big effort from Los Angeles, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night.    

10* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Indiana has overachieved big time this season.  The Hoosiers come into this game with an 11-3 SU record, including a 1-0 mark in conference play after winning in Nebraska 70-65 as 4-point underdogs.  Indiana was picked to finish 10th in the Big 10 this season after losing five players from last year’s team.  The Hoosiers want to play as fast as possible, and so far this season, they’ve been able to do that in every game.  Indiana has scored 70 points or more in every game this season, but that will come to an end tonight against Michigan State.  The Hoosiers will be forced to play a half-court grinder, and they will be clueless in playing that style of basketball.  This will be just their second true road game of the season, and it comes against a much better opponent than they just played. 

Michigan State is only 9-5 on the season, but they played a brutal non-conference schedule.  The Spartans played Duke, Kansas, and Notre Dame all away from home.  Michigan State also had to begin conference play against Maryland who is very good and ranked #11 in the country.  Michigan State also had to play those games with injuries to their best players.  The Spartans are healthier now, and they are taking a major step-down in class for this game.  Michigan State plays at a slow pace while playing ferocious defense.  The Spartans are only allowing 57.2 points per game on 34.8% shooting from the field and 26.4% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  All six of their home wins have come by 16 points or more, so when they win, they tend to blow their opponents out.  We expect Michigan State to win this game easily, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans on Monday night.        

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

Washington started this season at 11-0, but the Huskies have since lost back-to-back games.  One of those losses was an inexcusable home defeat to Stony Brook, and that game exposed Washington’s phony undefeated record.  The Huskies lost at California in their last game on Friday night, and with a quick turnaround on the road again, Washington had no time to practice on their weaknesses.  The Huskies are struggling on offense right now as they shot just 39.5% (51-129) from the field in their last two games.  They also turned the ball over 24 times in those games, allowing their opponents easy baskets in transition.  Washington’s perimeter defense has been terrible as well, allowing 43.8% (14-32) shooting from three-point land in their last two games.   

Stanford is a solid team loaded with experienced veterans.  The Cardinal come into this game from the opposite direction as they’ve won three straight games after losing by 2 points (79-77) at BYU.  The Cardinal were impressive in their 74-71 overtime win at Texas three games back, and that win shows how good this team can be.  Stanford is a perfect 7-0 at home this season with every win coming by 6 points or more; their home wins have come by an average of 18.3 points per game.  Stanford is averaging 71.9 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Their defense has been stifling at home, giving up just 53.6 points per game on 37.6% shooting from the field.  Stanford is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night.           

9* Play STANFORD (-).

Detroit went 11-5 in the regular season with four of their five losses coming on the road.  And none of those losses were pretty; 24-7 in Carolina, 14-6 in Arizona, 34-9 in New England, and 30-20 in Green Bay last week.  There are some common traits in those games that will be evident in this game in Dallas.  The Lions’ offense was terrible in three of those losses, and their defense got torched by the two good offenses they faced; the Patriots scored 34 points and the Packers scored 30 points with a hobbled Aaron Rodgers.  Detroit gave up 53 first downs and 816 yards of offense in those games.  The Lions’ other road games have come against the dregs of the league: Jets, Vikings, Falcons, and Bears.  Overall, Detroit has faced a weak slew of passing offenses this season as their opponents have only averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt.  That will change here against one of the most potent passing offenses in the NFL.       

Dallas returns home off a 44-17 blowout win in Washington last week.  The Cowboys’ offense has been unstoppable lately as they’ve scored 44, 42, 38, and 41 points over their last four games.  Overall, Dallas is averaging a whopping 29.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against a good collection of defenses that are only allowing 23.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Quarterback Tony Romo is having his best season of his career while leading the NFL in completion percentage (69.9%), yards per pass attempt (8.5), and quarterback rating (113.2).  The Lions’ secondary is awful, and they’ve already got torched by Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers on the road this season.  Dallas is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

10* Play COWBOYS (-).

Virginia is a good team that is well coached.  The Cavaliers come into tonight’s game in Miami with a perfect 12-0 record.  Virginia was terrific last season while winning 30 games and earning a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.  They returned seven of their top nine players from last season, so they projected to be a very good team once again.  However, the two players they lost, Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell, were vital components to their team.  Harris was the leading scorer while Mitchell was their best defender.  Head coach Tony Bennett knows how important those two guys were to the team’s success.  “That was what set our team apart, how cohesive they were. You take away two talented guys, and it’s a different identity and mentality. Can we replace those intangibles Joe and Akil brought at such a high level?”  So far, the Cavaliers have done that.  But the competition gets much tougher now in conference play, and the Cavaliers will get a stiff test tonight against the Hurricanes.  

Miami came flying out of the gates this season; the Hurricanes opened with eight consecutive wins.  They beat Florida, Drexel, and Illinois who are halfway decent.  But after their hot start, the team got complacent and lost against poor teams like Green Bay and Eastern Kentucky.  They also lost at Providence, but the Friars are a good team.  Miami righted the ship in their last game as they waxed an inferior Charleston 67-40.  The Hurricanes rely on hitting three’s to win, and Virginia’s defense allows teams to shoot a lot of open three’s as they prefer to limit points inside the paint.  If Miami hits their open shots, they’ll be in this game until the end with a very good shot at winning outright.  The Hurricanes also like to play slow, so Virginia’s dawdling pace will not be a factor.  In a game that will come right down to the wire, we’ll take the points in a low-scoring defensive slugfest. 

9* Play MIAMI, FL (+).

Oklahoma State was terrible this season, and the Cowboys needed to beat rival Oklahoma as 19.5-point underdogs in their season finale to qualify for a bowl game.  Oklahoma State went just 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS overall this season, and there was a lot of turmoil between head coach Mike Gundy and booster T. Boone Pickens.  The Cowboys were not a cohesive group all season, and we don’t expect things to be much different now.  Oklahoma State will be without their best playmaker, Tyreek Hill, who is off the team after getting arrested.  Oklahoma State had terrible quarterback play after J.W. Walsh got hurt; Daxx Garman was simply terrible.  In a move of desperation to save face, Gundy had to lift the redshirt off true freshman QB Mason Rudolph.  In his two starts, Oklahoma State lost 49-28 at Baylor and they beat Oklahoma 38-35.  The Cowboys may have their quarterback of the future, but this will just his third collegiate start, and it comes against a terrific Washington defense that allowed just 24.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 32.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play this season.        

Washington closed the year playing some of their best football of the season.  The Huskies were in their first year under head coach Chris Petersen, and it took them a while to catch on to his system.  But once they did, the team was outstanding, and we expect them to dominate their opponent in this game.  Washington has a terrific rushing attack that averaged 195.3 yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush.  The Huskies will run all over an Oklahoma State defense that allowed 208 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush against the seven bowl teams they faced this season.  The Cowboys allowed 200 yards or more four times this season, and they gave up 42, 34, 49, and 35 points in those games.  Washington’s wins this season have been big as seven of their eight wins have come by 7 points or more.  Oklahoma State’s losses this season have been big as five of their six losses have come by 21 points or more.  We’ll lay the points with Washington in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play WASHINGTON (-).

Detroit won as a Best Bet for us on Tuesday night when they beat Orlando 109-86, and we’ll come right back and play the Pistons tonight for all of the same reasons.  Detroit was slated to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA with Stan Van Gundy running the show, but they were terrible early on and own just an 8-23 record.  However, it was addition by subtraction for Detroit after they got rid of Josh Smith, who by many accounts, was taking the Pistons down single handily.  Since Smith’s departure, Detroit has played their best three games of the season with a 10-point win (119-109) over the Pacers at home, a 23-point win (103-80) over the Cavaliers on the road, and a 23-point win (109-86) over the Magic on the road.  “I think it’s everybody being so unselfish,” said Brandon Jennings.  “Everybody’s making the extra pass, not just one guy out there making plays. When guys get in the post, they’re passing it back out. Guys are getting open shots. We’re being very unselfish.”  That quote speaks directly to the fact that Smith was a ball hog who prevented the Pistons from being a unified team on the court.

New York has been a complete mess this season.  The Knicks come into this game with an awful 5-29 record, and they have a slew of players on the injured list.  New York’s transition to the triangle offense has been a wreck, and their inability to score consistently has put enormous pressure on their poor defense.  The Knicks are in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 111 points per game on 49.3% shooting from the field and 44.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Detroit’s offense is averaging 107.2 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 40.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  There’s a lot of value on Detroit in this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Pistons on Friday night.   

9* Play PISTONS (-).