Virginia Tech comes into this game with a 3-1 SU record, but their only loss was to a very good Tennessee team.  The Hokies also own a huge scheduling edge over North Carolina.  Virginia Tech comes in off a bye while the Tar Heels are off two consecutive emotional games.  The Hokies have won their three games by a combined score of 139-75.  Virginia Tech is averaging 40.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 26.1 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  North Carolina’s defense is giving up 31 points per game while allowing their opponents to gain 6.1 yards per play.  Virginia Tech’s running game averages 195.5 yards per game; the Tar Heels are giving up 236.8 yards per game on 5.0 yards per game.  The Hokies will have a lot of success running the ball on North Carolina in this game, especially in rainy conditions.

North Carolina is 4-1 SU on the season with their lone loss coming to Georgia in the season opener.  However, the Tar Heels are off back-to-back come from behind wins over Pittsburgh and Florida State, and those wins actually put them in a terrible situational spot for this game.  North Carolina’s last two wins were also high-scoring shootouts which is also a negative factor; the Tar Heels beat Pittsburgh 37-36 and Florida State 37-35.  North Carolina’s offense has faced a group of defenses that give up 36.4 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  The Tar Heels will now face a Virginia Tech defense that only gives up 18.7 points per game on 4.2 yards per play.  That’s -17.7 points per game less, and a whopping -2.7 yards per play less than the defenses that North Carolina has faced this season.  We’ll back Virginia Tech on Saturday afternoon, and adverse weather conditions will further help the Hokies who have the better defense and running game.

10* Play VIRGINIA TECH.

Indiana is 3-1, and the Hoosiers come off their best game of the season.  Indiana beat Michigan State 24-21 at home in overtime last week, but that win isn’t as good as it looks.  The Spartans are clearly down a few notches this season, and Indiana was a 5-point home underdog in that game.  Indiana is also on the road for the first time in five weeks, and the matchup against Ohio State is just bad.  Indiana’s offense is only averaging 29 points per game versus defenses that allow 26 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Aside from Michigan State last week, Indiana’s opponents were Florida International, Ball State, and Wake Forest.  The Hoosiers will now face an Ohio State defense that only gives up 9.2 points per game on 3.6 yards per play.  That’s 16.8 points per game less, and 2.1 yards per play less than the defenses that Indiana has faced this season.

Ohio State comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS record on the season.  The Buckeyes have won their four games by a combined score of 228-37.  Ohio State is averaging 57 points per game on 7.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 36.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Indiana’s defense has given up 21.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  However, they’ve played a horrendous group of offenses that only average 23.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Ohio State’s running game averages 332 yards per game on 6.5 yards per rush; Indiana has no chance at stopping the run.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Buckeyes on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play OHIO STATE (-).

New York opened the season with back-to-back wins before losing at home last week to Washington.  The Giants have faced three poor defensive teams, but tonight they will face one of the best defenses in the NFL.  New York has played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  The Giants are only averaging 21 points per game despite playing against defenses that allow 26.6 points per game.  Minnesota’s defense only gives up 13.3 points per game on 4.8 yards per play, so New York will have a difficult time moving the ball with consistency in this game, especially since the Giants will be without their top two running backs.

Minnesota is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS on the season despite playing without quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.  The Vikings are winning with their stout defense, and nothing will change tonight against the Giants.  Minnesota possesses a defense that is allowing -13.3 points per game less, and a whopping -1.6 yards per play less than the defenses New York has faced so far this season.  Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford has played well in Bridgewater’s place, and he should have another productive game tonight.  The Vikings' new home field is extremely loud and further enhances Minnesota's defensive edge, so we’ll back the Vikings on Monday night.

10* Play VIKINGS (-).

Denver is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Tampa Bay.  The Broncos come in off a big win in Cincinnati as 3.5-point underdogs last Sunday.  Denver will now play back-to-back road games while making their second straight trip to the East Coast.  The Broncos are a perfect 3-0 on the season, but they’ve been underdogs in two of those games, including their home opener against Carolina.  The Broncos are laying points in a prime letdown spot, and they are doing so against a team they matchup poorly against.  Tampa Bay’s offensive strength is running the football while Denver’s defensive weakness is stopping the run.  The Broncos have allowed 127.7 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush versus offenses that only run for 104.3 yards per game on 3.9 yards per rush.  That statistic is even worse than it appears since Denver held significant leads in two of their three games this season.  

Tampa bay was expected to have a breakout season, but the Buccaneers come into this game with a 1-2 record.  Tampa Bay dominated their season opener in Atlanta (31-24 win), but their last two games have been awful.  The Buccaneers got blown out by 33 points (40-7) in Arizona, and last week lost a high-scoring shootout 37-32 at home to Los Angeles.  Off those back-to-back ugly performances, we expect Tampa Bay to bring their ‘A’ game against the Broncos.  The Buccaneers are catching Denver at the perfect time, and they own a big scheduling advantage since they are at home for a second consecutive week.  This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, so we’ll take the points with Tampa Bay on Sunday afternoon. 

10* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Carolina comes into this game off a terrible performance at home against Minnesota last week.  The Panthers lost that game 22-10, but there’s little shame in having a poor offensive game against one of the best defensive teams in the NFL.  Off that terrible showing, we expect Carolina to bounce back with a strong effort, especially since they’ll be taking a major step-down in class against Atlanta.  The Panther’s offense has averaged 25.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus a collection of defenses that are only allowing 20 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Carolina’s defense is giving up 23.3 points per game on just 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.6 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Those numbers show that Carolina has been an above average team on both sides of the ball so far this season.

Atlanta has had a surprising winning season so far; the Falcons were predicted to be a mediocre team once again in 2016.  The Falcons are 2-1 on the season, and they come into this game off their best effort to date, a 45-32 victory in New Orleans last Monday night.  Atlanta now returns home on a short week while taking a major step-up in class.  The Falcons’ offense is averaging 34.7 points per game on a whopping 7.3 yards per play.  However, they’ve faced three awful defenses that are giving up 30.7 points per game on 6.8 yards per play.  Atlanta will face a Carolina defense that allows 7.4 points and 1.9 yards per play less than the defenses the Falcons have faced.  Atlanta’s defense is terrible as they’ve allowed their opponents to average 30.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Carolina is the superior team, so we’ll back the Panthers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play PANTHERS (-).

Buffalo is a disappointing 1-2 on the season, but the Bills do have some momentum after waxing Arizona 33-18 last Sunday.  Buffalo’s two losses only came by 6 points apiece, so they have yet to lose by more than the posted pointspread on this game.  The Bills have played above average football on the offensive side of the ball this season.  Buffalo is averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 20.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Bills average 119.7 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush; their opponents only give up 96.9 yards per game on 4.0 yards per rush.  Buffalo’s ability to run the ball successfully will have a major impact on this game as New England’s defense has allowed a mediocre slate of rushing offenses that only average 3.8 yards per rush to average 4.4 yards per rush.      

New England has a perfect 3-0 record, and the odds of them going 4-0 without quarterback Tom Brady would have been astronomical if a proposition was listed to bet prior to the season.  The Patriots have cruised to easy wins in their last two games despite playing two young and inexperienced quarterbacks.  Jimmy Garoppolo led the Patriots out to a 24-0 lead against Miami before getting hurt two weeks ago.  Rookie Jacoby Brissett replaced the injured Garoppolo, and finished the game against the Dolphins before leading New England to a 27-0 win over the Texans the following Thursday night.  Off those back-to-back dominating performances, New England will now lay a full touchdown into a division opponent in a game where they are highly unlikely to play their best.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Buffalo on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BILLS (+).

Kentucky has been a disappointing team under head coach Mark Stoops.  The Wildcats are just 14-27 SU in his three years, including 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) so far this season.  Their lone wins have come against an inferior New Mexico State team, and a terrible South Carolina team.  Kentucky was dominated by Southern Mississippi and Florida with the latter being a 45-7 blowout loss on the road.  The Wildcats will now play just their second road game of the season, and this time it will come against the best team in the nation.  Kentucky’s offense has averaged only 12 points in their two SEC games, so it’s hard to imagine the Wildcats scoring many points on Alabama’s strong defense.  The Crimson Tide is only allowing 14.7 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season.  At home, Alabama is only permitting 5 points per game on 3.8 yards per play.

Alabama is the best team in the country.  The Crimson Tide are a perfect 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) while winning by an average of +31.8 points per game.  Alabama is averaging 46.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 29.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Kentucky’s defense is allowing 35.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play despite playing offenses that only average 28.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Wildcats’ defense is taking a monumental step-up in offensive class against Alabama, so expect them to struggle mightily in this game.  Kentucky is giving up 205 rushing yards per game while Alabama’s offense is averaging 246 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush.  Alabama has scored at least 48 points or more in three of their four games this season, including an easy 48-0 home win last week.  This game is a complete mismatch and a terrible matchup for Kentucky, so we’ll lay the points with the Crimson Tide on Saturday night. 

9* Play ALABAMA (-).

Oklahoma has once again failed to live up to their preseason hype.  The Sooners are just 1-2 SU (0-3 ATS) on the season with losses to Houston and Ohio State.  There is no shame in losing to those two teams, but Oklahoma was actually dominated by both of those opponents.  The Sooners do come into this game off a bye, but even so, they are laying over a field goal which means there’s some good value on TCU as a home underdog.  The Sooners only won 30-29 at home versus TCU last season despite putting-up 536 yards of total offense.  TCU’s defense is significantly better this year as they are only giving up 26.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average of 28.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

TCU should be 4-0 SU on the season, but they gifted Arkansas a win in overtime back in Week 2.  The Horned Frogs come off their best game of the season, a 33-3 blowout win at SMU last Friday night.  TCU has a lot of momentum coming into this game while Oklahoma has to find their rhythm off a week of rest.  TCU’s offense has been excellent this season as they are averaging 42.7 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  They will face an Oklahoma defense that is allowing 31.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Horned Frogs’ ability to run the ball (196 yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush) gives them a nice matchup edge in this game.  TCU won straight-up as a 3-point home underdog two years ago versus the Sooners, and we expect another close game throughout today, so we’ll take the points with the Horned Frogs on Saturday.

9* Play TCU (+).

Illinois is 1-2 SU/ATS on the season with their lone win coming over FCS Murray State.  The Illini’s two losses have come by 25 points (48-23) to North Carolina, and by 24 points (34-10) to Western Michigan.  All of their games have come at home, so they will be playing their first road game of the season.  While it’s true they’ve had extra time to prepare for this game, the matchup against Nebraska is just bad.  Illinois’ offense is only averaging 28.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 34.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  The Illini will now face a Nebraska defense that only gives up 18 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  That’s -16.3 points per game less, and -1.0 yards per play less than the defenses that Illinois has faced so far this year.

Nebraska comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS record on the season.  The Cornhuskers have won their four games by a combined score of 154-72.  Nebraska is averaging 38.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 29.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Illinois defense has given up 28.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus a mediocre group of offenses that only average 29.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Nebraska’s running game averages 242.5 yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush; the Illini give up 158 yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush.  Nebraska is 2-0 SU/ATS as a double-digit favorite this year, winning those two games by 33 and 35 point margins.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Cornhuskers on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play NEBRASKA (-).

Stanford comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record, and all three victories can be considered quality wins.  The Cardinal beat Kansas State, USC, and UCLA.  And as you will see below, their opponent tonight has played one of the easiest schedules in the entire country.  Stanford’s defense is playing excellent football this year.  The Cardinal only give up 12.0 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Stanford plays ball control offense; they average 38 rushes per game while running for 202.3 yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush.  Washington’s defense has given up 145.5 rushing yards per game to inferior opponents, including 308 rushing yards (7.2 ypr) at Arizona last week, so Stanford’s ability to run the ball will be the deciding factor in this game.

Washington is 4-0 SU (2-2 ATS) on the season with their last win being a 45-38 overtime win at Arizona as a 16-point road favorite.  The Huskies are certainly a talented team, but they’ve played nothing in terms of competition as their other wins have come against Rutgers, Idaho, and FCS Portland State.  Washington’s offense is averaging 45.7 points per game on 7.1 yards per play, but they’ve faced a group of terrible defenses that allow an average of 36.4 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Huskies will now face a Stanford defense that allows -24.4 points and -1.1 yards per rush less per game than the defenses Washington has faced so far this year.  Stanford is 2-0 SU versus the Washington the past two years as an 8-point road favorite and 14.5-point home favorite.  This line has now be adjusted 11.5 net points in the opposite direction.  The better team is the underdog and this should be a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Stanford on Friday night. 

10* Play STANFORD (+).

Miami and Cincinnati both come into this game with 1-2 SU records with Miami’s win coming in their last game while Cincinnati’s win came in their season opener.  Miami has played in three wild games; they lost 12-10 in Seattle with just 31 seconds left to play in their season opener.  They trailed 24-0 in the first half in New England before rallying back and losing 31-24.  Last week, the Dolphins led 24-13 in the fourth quarter at home versus the Browns, but then needed overtime to win 30-24.  Those are three consecutive draining games, and Miami must now travel on short rest (4 days) and play their third road game in just four weeks.  This is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Dolphins tonight.

Cincinnati was fortunate to beat the Jets 23-22 in their first game of the season, and since then, they’ve been non-competitive in losses to the Steelers and Broncos.  Cincinnati could very well be 0-3 right now.  However, the Bengals’ offense has been able to move the ball despite only averaging 18.7 points per game.  Cincinnati is averaging 6.2 yards per play while the Dolphins defense has allowed 5.7 yards per play versus mediocre offenses that have been averaging just 5.8 yards per play.  The Bengals will likely have their best offensive game to date, and they hold a situational edge at home tonight on the short week, so we’ll lay the points with Cincinnati in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play BENGALS (-).

Los Angeles lost 7-1 to San Diego last night, but we expect a much different outcome on Wednesday night.  The Dodgers will start Jose De Leon who projects to have a fantastic outing against San Diego’s lineup based on my numbers.  De Leon is slated to give up just 1.3 earned runs with an incredible 2.36 ERA and an excellent 1.01 WHIP in this game.  He also projects to have a strong 11.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 4.2 strikeout/walk ratio against the Padres tonight.  San Diego’s offense has hit just .250 (5-for-20) with a poor .673 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against De Leon during his career.  The young right-hander was fantastic in his 16 minor league starts this season, going 7-1 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while holding his opponents to a .194 batting average.  The Padres have been much weaker versus right-handed pitchers this season, averaging just 4.1 runs per nine innings with a .233 batting average at home, compared to 5.4 runs and .244 versus LHP.

San Diego will send Luis Perdomo to the mound who has a terrible 5.59 ERA and 1.59 WHIP this season.  My numbers project another poor outing for Perdomo against the Dodgers' lineup.  The right-hander projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a poor 4.09 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in this game.  Perdomo also projects to have a weak 6.6 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 2.0 strikeout/walk ratio tonight.  He has struggled against Los Angeles in two starts this season, going 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.  The Dodgers' lineup has hit .452 (33-for-73) with an excellent 1.111 OPS against Perdomo during his career.  Los Angeles has been much stronger versus right-handed pitchers this season, averaging 4.9 runs per nine innings with a .260 batting average, compared to just 3.6 runs and .213 versus LHP.  The Dodgers hold a substantial edge in this game, so we’ll back Los Angeles on the run line Wednesday night.

10* Play DODGERS (-1.5 runline).

Milwaukee beat Texas 8-3 last night, but we expect a much different outcome on Tuesday night.  The Brewers will send Jimmy Nelson to the mound who has a terrible 5.72 ERA and 1.68 WHIP at home this season.  My numbers project another poor outing for Nelson against the Rangers' lineup.  The right-hander projects to give up 3.1 earned runs with a weak 4.92 ERA and a poor 1.49 WHIP in this game.  Nelson also projects to have a weak 6.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 2.0 strikeout/walk ratio in this game.  Texas is 50-26 at home this year where they are averaging 5.3 runs per game while bating .282 as a team.

The Rangers will start A.J. Griffin who projects to have a fantastic outing against Milwaukee’s lineup based on my numbers.  Griffin is slated to give up just 2.2 earned runs with a solid 3.63 ERA and an excellent 1.18 WHIP in this game.  The right-hander also projects to have a strong 10.3 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 3.7 strikeout/walk ratio against the Brewers tonight.  Milwaukee’s lineup has hit just .172 (5-for-29) with an awful .407 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Griffin during his career.  The Brewers have been a much weaker offensive team versus right-handed pitchers this season, averaging just 3.9 runs per nine innings with a .236 batting average, compared to 5.0 runs and .247 versus LHP.  Texas holds all of the edges in this game, so we’ll back the Rangers on the run line tonight.

10* Play RANGERS (-1.5 runline).

Atlanta comes into this game with a 1-1 SU/ATS after winning 35-28 in Oakland last Sunday.  That win looks even better now considering the Raiders are 2-0 SU in their other games, including a win at New Orleans.  The Falcons’ offense has been tremendous in their two games.  Atlanta is averaging 29.5 points per game on an incredible 7.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 6.8 yards per play.  The Falcons will face a New Orleans defense that has given up 25.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play against offenses that only average 23.8 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.

New Orleans is desperate at 0-2 SU on the season.  The Saints lost at home to Oakland in their season opener, and lost last week in New York against the Giants.  While the Saints will likely come with a spirited effort, that may not be enough in what’s expected to be a high-scoring shootout (O/U line is 53.5).  New Orleans has no running game whatsoever; the Saints are only averaging 64.5 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush.  They are a one-dimensional team to the pass, but that’s not good when facing an opposing offense that can move the ball on the ground and thru the air.  We’ll back Atlanta in this game on Monday night.

10* Play FALCONS (+).

Baltimore comes into this game in Jacksonville with a perfect 2-0 record, but they’ve been less than impressive in those wins.  The Ravens beat Buffalo 13-7 at home in their season opener.  The fact that Baltimore only scored 13 points after seeing the Bills give up 37 points at home to the Jets is a negative sign for the Ravens.  Last week, Baltimore trailed 20-0 in Cleveland before rallying back for a 25-20 win.  The Ravens have played two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they’ve looked terrible in both games.  And the on-field numbers back that assessment up.  Baltimore’s offense is only averaging 19 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 26 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Ravens simply have no business laying points on the road right now.

Jacksonville is a disappointing 0-2 on the season; the Jaguars were slated to be a much better team in 2016.  However, the winless record can be excused as Jacksonville faced two good teams so far in the Packers and Chargers.  There’s no shame in losing those two games, and since they come into this game desperate for a win, we expect Jacksonville’s best effort this afternoon.  The Jaguars have a dynamic offense that has averaged 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 5.8 yards per play this season.  That means Baltimore’s defense will be taking a major step-up in offensive class after facing the inept offenses of the Bills and Browns.  Baltimore is not as good as their 2-0 record indicates while Jacksonville is much better than their 0-2 record indicates, so we’ll take the points with the undervalued home underdog on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play JAGUARS (+).

Oklahoma State is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for this game at Baylor on Saturday night.  The Cowboys come into this game with a 2-1 SU record, but they could very well be 3-0 on the season.  Oklahoma State opened with an easy 61-7 romp over FCS Southeastern Louisiana, and then they lost on a controversial last play to Central Michigan; the play never should have counted.  Oklahoma State was supposed to be flat last week off that disappointing loss, but the Cowboys out-lasted Pittsburgh in a 45-38 shootout.  The Cowboys led by 14 points twice in that game, but it was tied when Oklahoma State scored the game-winning touchdown with just 1:35 left to play in the game.  That’s back-to-back emotionally draining games for Oklahoma State, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll have much in reserve for this game.  The Cowboys will also be making their first road trip of the season, so that is another negative factor working against them.

Baylor’s summer distraction of losing head coach Art Briles due to sanctions from inappropriate actions have yet to be an issue.  The Bears are 3-0 SU on the season while out-scoring their inferior opposition by a combined score of 133-20.  Baylor is averaging 44.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Oklahoma State’s defense is giving up 25 points per game on 5.4 yards per play, but their opponents have only averaged 28 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Cowboys’ defense is taking a monumental step-up in offensive class against Baylor, so expect them to struggle mightily in this game.  Oklahoma State gave up 290 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per rush last week.  Baylor’s offense is running for 282 yards per game on 5.6 yards per rush, so expect them to control this game on the ground.  The Bears have out-rushed the Cowboys 304-8 and 317-116 the past two years, winning by +31 points combined. This is simply a terrible spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma State, so we’ll lay the points with the Bears on Saturday night. 

10* Play BAYLOR (-).

Wake Forest comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 SU record, including a solid 24-14 win at Duke two weeks ago.  The Demon Deacons have a pretty good defensive team that returned seven starters from last year when they held opponents to just 24.6 points on 364 yards per game.  In three games so far this season, Wake Forest is only giving up 12.7 points per game on 3.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.7 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.  Overall, Wake Forest returned 16 players from last year’s team, and they are in the third year under head coach Dave Clawson.  Wake Forest plays ball control offense; they average 47.3 rushes per game while running for 206.7 yards per game.  Quarterback Kendall Hinton will not play after getting hurt last week, but John Wolford has started 22 games for Wake Forest over the last two seasons, so he has plenty of experience.  The Demon Deacons’ ability to run the ball gives them a nice matchup edge in this game.

Indiana is 2-0 SU on the season, and they come into this game off a bye.  But getting a week of rest this early in the season for a timing offense is not a good thing, especially since they are playing a good defensive team.  The Hoosiers won 31-24 at Wake Forest last season as a +3.5 point underdog, but now they are laying -7.5 points into a team that is significantly better this season.  Indiana’s offense is averaging 32 points per game on 6.2 yards per play, but they faced a pair of defenses that allow an average of 26.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Hoosiers will now face a Wake Forest defense that allows -14.1 points and -1.7 yards per rush less per game than the defenses Indiana has faced.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Wake Forest on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play WAKE FOREST (+).

East Carolina is 2-1 SU on the season, but they’ve played three mediocre teams.  The Pirates own wins against FCS Western Carolina and North Carolina State; both of those games came on their home field.  Last week, East Carolina lost 20-15 at a terrible South Carolina team despite out-gaining them by 207 yards (519-312).  East Carolina’s offense is averaging 33.3 points per game on 6.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 30.8 points per game on 6.8 yards per play.  The Pirates will now face a Virginia Tech defense that only gives up 19.3 points per game on 3.3 yards per play.  That’s -14 points per game less, and a whopping -3.5 yards per play less than the defenses that East Carolina has faced so far this season.

Virginia Tech also comes into this game with a 2-1 SU record, but their loss was against a good Tennessee team.  The Hokies have won their two home games by a combined score of 85-13.  Virginia Tech is averaging 36.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 25.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  East Carolina’s defense has only given up 19 points per game, but they have allowed their opponents to gain 6.2 yards per play.  Those numbers do not line up, and that means the Pirates have been extremely lucky in the points against department.  Virginia Tech’s running game averages 205 yards per game; the Pirates give up 160 yards per game on 5.1 yards per game.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Hokies at home on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (-).

This is a tough scheduling spot for Clemson as they must travel and prepare for Georgia Tech's option attack on a short week (4 days).  The Tigers also have a huge look-ahead game on deck next week versus Louisville.  Clemson is 3-0 SU on the season, but only 1-2 ATS and they’ve only played one ‘real’ opponent so far.  The Tigers struggled mightily at Auburn in their season opener; they won that game 19-13.  Their last two games were against inferior opponents (Troy and FCS South Carolina State); they won those games by a combined score of 89-24.  However, they only beat Troy 30-24 at home, so that indicates that this Clemson team is down a few notches from last year’s squad.  Clemson’s offense is averaging 36 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that allow 32.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Tigers will face a Georgia Tech defense that only gives up 10.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  That’s -25.7 points per game less, and -0.5 yards per play less than the defenses Clemson has faced so far this season.  If we only use Georgia Tech’s home numbers, the outcome is even more bleak for Clemson.  The Yellow Jackets have allowed just 8.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play at home.

Georgia Tech also comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 SU record.  The Yellow Jackets have won their two home games by a combined score of 73-17, including an impressive 38-7 win versus Vanderbilt last week.  Georgia Tech is averaging 30 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that give up only 28.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Clemson has good defensive numbers, but they faced a trio of offenses that only average 24.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Georgia Tech’s running game averages 258 yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush, and double digit underdogs that can run the ball well have been long-term spread winners in college football.  The Yellow Jackets won outright 28-6 as a home underdog versus Clemson two years ago with a 251-125 rushing edge.  This game should be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Georgia Tech on Thursday night.

10* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Philadelphia won their season opener in impressive fashion under rookie quarterback Carson Wentz.  The Eagles beat the Browns 29-10 after out-gaining them 403-288.  Wentz completed 22 passes for 278 yards with 2 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  But that was just one game at home against a poor Cleveland team that is now 0-2 after losing at home to the Ravens yesterday.  Philadelphia will now travel and play at Chicago with Wentz making his first road start in the NFL.  Tonight’s game will present a much stiffer challenge for Wentz and the entire Eagles offense as Chicago’s defense is significantly better than Cleveland’s defense.

Chicago lost their season opener 23-14 in Houston.  That loss doesn’t look so bad now after the Texans came back and shutdown the Chiefs in a 19-12 win yesterday.  The Bears actually led that game 14-10 at the half before completely falling apart in the third and fourth quarters.  As alluded to above, Chicago’s defense played a fantastic game as they held the Texans to just 344 yards of total offense on just 4.9 yards per play.  To compare, Philadelphia’s offense faced a Cleveland defense that allowed 5.5 yards per play.  Chicago is undervalued while Philadelphia is overvalued simply due to last week’s results, so we’ll back the Bears in this game on Monday night. 

9* Play BEARS (-).

Green Bay escaped Jacksonville with a fortunate 27-23 win last week.  The Packers were out-yarded 348-294 while also losing the first down battle 20-18.  Quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed just 58.8% (20-34) of his passes for 199 yards on just 5.9 yards per pass attempt.  And that was against a mediocre Jaguars defense.  Now Green Bay will play on the road for the second consecutive week while taking a monumental step-up in defensive class.  Minnesota has one of the best defenses in the league, and it’s likely Green Bay will struggle on offense for the second consecutive game.

Minnesota also got a fortunate win last week when they beat the Titans 25-16.  However, the Vikings were on the road, and playing their first game without quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.  They had an extremely vanilla offensive game plan in hopes of just getting in and out with a win.  It worked, but tonight we expect to see a much different Minnesota offense with Sam Bradford under center for the first time.  The Vikings will still lean heavily on Adrian Peterson, but with Minnesota opening their new stadium on national TV, we expect a peak performance by the home team on Sunday night.

9* Play VIKINGS (+).

Tennessee lost 25-16 at home to the Vikings in their season opener last week.  The Titans played much better than it appears on paper.  Tennessee built a 10-0 lead against Minnesota, and at that point, the Titans offense started to play conservatively.  They became predictable, and the strong Minnesota defense shut them down after that.  Quarterback Marcus Mariota then threw a 77-yard pick-6, and the offense lost two fumbles with one being returned for a touchdown in the second half.  That sequence of events turned the whole game around, and it prevented Tennessee’s offense from scoring more points while turning this game into a misleading final score.  In reality, the Titans defense held Minnesota’s offense to just 11 points on 301 yards of total offense.

Detroit won 39-35 in a high-scoring shootout in Indianapolis last Sunday.  The Lions offense was terrific as they racked up 448 yards of total offense while averaging a whopping 7.1 yards per play.  Quarterback Matthew Stafford was excellent as he completed 79.5% (31-39) of his passes for 332 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Stafford averaged 8.5 yards per pass attempt while earning a 128.6 quarterback rating; the second best of Week 1.  However, the Lions’ defense also gave up 35 points on 450 yards of total offense.  Their secondary was carved-up by Andrew Luck; he threw for 368 passing yards with 4 touchdowns while averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt.  Detroit’s defense was terrible, and we expect Mariota and the Titans offense to have a lot of success as well.  Last week’s results creates a lot of value on the underdog, so we’ll take Tennessee plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play TITANS (+).

UCLA had a lot of hype heading into last season.  The Bruins had 16 returning starters from a team that won 20 games over the previous two years.  Freshman quarterback Josh Rosen was said to be a can’t miss NFL prospect as well.  UCLA failed to live up to their lofty expectations after going just 8-5, including a physical beat down by Nebraska in their bowl game.  Things were quieter heading into 2016, but UCLA was still the preseason favorites to win the Pac 12 South.  The Bruins lost their season opener in overtime at Texas A&M before beating UNLV at home last week.  UCLA failed to cover the pointspread in both of those games, and in fact, UCLA is on a 1-5 ATS slide dating back to last season.  UCLA’s run defense has been poor so far; they’ve allowed 189 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush.  That’s a major issue coming into this game against a BYU team that possesses a terrific running game behind a solid offensive line that also features a dual threat quarterback.

BYU comes into this game with a 1-1 record after playing a pair of close, defensive scrums.  The Cougars beat Arizona 18-16 on a neutral field, and they lost 20-19 on the road to their in-state rival Utah last week.  Off that loss, BYU will be primed for a big effort in their home opener, especially after their close loss at UCLA last season.  The Cougars lost 24-23 after putting up 405 yards of total offense on the Bruins.  BYU’s rushing offense has been impressive against two pretty good defensive fronts so far this season.  The Cougars have averaged 178 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush versus opponents that only give up 133 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush.  BYU will have success moving the ball on the ground against UCLA’s defense.  My power ratings make BYU a 2-point favorite, so there’s excellent value in taking the Cougars as a home underdog in this game.

9* Play BYU (+).

Mississippi State figured to regress sharply this season after losing eleven starters, including quarterback Dak Prescott to the NFL.  The Bulldogs lost their season opener at home versus South Alabama as a 28-point favorite before bouncing back with a ho-hum 27-14 home win over a terrible South Carolina team last week.  We won a Best Bet selection on Mississippi State in that game, but we have no hesitation in playing against them this week.  The Bulldogs will be playing their first road game of the season, and sophomore quarterback Nick Fitzgerald will be making his first collegiate road start in one of the toughest venues in all of college football.  Mississippi State needs to run the ball to be effective, but they have a very small chance of doing so successfully against a strong LSU defensive line.  This game will rely on Fitzgerald’s arm, but there’s little reason to expect him having any success against the Tigers’ stout defense.

LSU has yet to play their best football this season.  They lost their season opener against Wisconsin, and last week they beat Jacksonville State 34-13.  But there are reasons to expect LSU’s ‘A’ game on Saturday night.  The Tigers played without their best running back, Leonard Fournette, last week because of an injury.  But all reports indicate he’ll be back to full strength for this game.  LSU also got little production out of quarterback Brandon Harris, so head coach Les Miles will start Danny Etling who replaced Harris last week.  Scouts are extremely high on Etling’s abilities, and most say he’ll be a NFL quarterback.  LSU has exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and despite their sluggish play so far this season, they are a very good team.  The Tigers are primed for a peak performance, so we’ll lay the points with LSU at home on Saturday night. 

10* Play LSU (-).

UL Monroe went just 2-11 SU last season, and with only eleven starters returning, 2016 projects to be another long year.  The Warhawks come into this game with a 1-1 SU record; they beat FCS Southern at home, and last week they got blasted 59-17 at Oklahoma.  The Warhawks took a physical beating in that game as they gave up a whopping 640 yards of total offense, including 288 yards on the ground.  UL Monroe allowed Oklahoma to run for 6.3 yards per rush, and they allowed 239 rushing yards on 5.2 yards per rush versus Southern.  It’s pretty clear that the Warhawks have an abysmal rush defense after giving up a total of 527 yards on the ground in just two games.  That spells trouble against a Georgia Southern offense that runs the ball on just about every play.  In last year’s 51-31 home loss to the Eagles, UL Monroe gave up 455 rushing yards on 67 carries.

Georgia Southern has a winning program, and in fact, the Eagles have won nine games or more in five of the last six years.  They went 7-4 SU the lone year they failed to reach the 9-win mark.  The Eagles are already 2-0 SU this season after winning their first two games by a combined score of 78-9.  Georgia Southern runs the triple-option offense, and it’s extremely difficult to stop for inexperienced defenses.  The Eagles have averaged 324 yards or more on the ground per game in each of the last five seasons.  They’ve also averaged 5.8 yards per rush during that span; they averaged a whopping 6.8 yards per rush against UL Monroe last year.  This game is a compete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Georgia Southern on Saturday night.

9* Play GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-).

Oregon comes into this game with a 2-0 SU record, but they are 0-2 ATS, and that’s a negative indicator.  The Ducks played two inferior opponents on their strong home field, and they were unable to win either game by a significant margin.  Oregon gave up 26 and 28 points in those two games as well, so that’s not a good sign either.  The Ducks allowed FCS UC Davis to make 20 first downs while gaining 392 yards of offense in their season opener.  In their game against Virginia last week, Oregon gave up 28 first downs and 388 yards of offense.  But even more alarming was the fact that they allowed Virginia to run for 193 yards on 4.8 yards per rush.  Oregon will now travel to play their first road game of the season while taking a monumental step-up in offensive class.

Nebraska also comes into this game with a 2-0 record, but the Cornhuskers are 2-0 ATS after waxing their opponents, Fresno State and Wyoming, by a combined score of 95-27.  The Cornhuskers went just 6-7 last season, but they had the biggest misleading record in all of college football.  Their seven losses came by a combined 31 points, and incredibly, four of their six losses came on the final play of the game.  Nebraska averaged 32.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus opponents that only gave up 25 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Those numbers show how good of team they were last season.  Nebraska is averaging 215 rushing yards per game, so they’ll run all over the poor Oregon defensive line.  My power ratings make Nebraska a solid 6.5-point favorite, so there’s tremendous value in taking the Cornhuskers in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NEBRASKA (-).

Fresno State is still in rebuilding mode after going 3-9 last season.  The Bulldogs lost their season opener 43-10 at Nebraska after getting out-gained 406-274 in that game.  Fresno State gave up 292 rushing yards while allowing Nebraska to average 5.7 yards per rush.  The Bulldogs beat FCS Sacramento State at home last week, but once again, they gave up 99 rushing yards to an inferior opponent.  Fresno State will now have to travel for the second time in three weeks, and they’ll be heading across the country to play in the Eastern time zone.  This is a terrible scheduling spot for Fresno State, and the matchup on the field is horrendous as well.

Toledo is in their first year under head coach Jason Candle, but the Rockets have been impressive in their first two games.  Toledo is 2-0 after beating Arkansas State and FCS Maine by a combined score of 76-13.  The Rockets have 7 returning offensive starters back from last season’s 10-2 team which averaged 35 points per game on 461 yards of offense per game.  Toledo’s strength is running the football; they averaged 208 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per rush last season.  In two games this season, the Rockets have rushed for 372 yards on 4.8 yards per rush.  Toledo will run all over the poor Fresno State defense, so we’ll lay the points with the Rockets on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play TOLEDO (-).

Houston has picked up right where they left off last season.  The Cougars went 13-1 last season, and they are already 2-0 this year, including an upset win at Oklahoma in their season opener.  Make no mistake about it, Houston is a very good team.  But tonight’s game in Cincinnati will be  an extremely challenging game for the Cougars.  Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. is nursing a shoulder injury; he did not play in last week’s game against Lamar.  Running back Duke Catalon also missed last week’s game with a sprained ankle, so Houston’s top two playmakers are both playing at less than 100%.  Houston beat Cincinnati 33-30 as 9-point home favorites last season, but that was a misleading win as the Cougars were out-gained 589-427 by the Bearcats in that game.

Cincinnati only went 7-6 last season, but the Bearcats lost three games by single digits, and they actually out-gained their conference opponents by 167.4 yards per game.  Those numbers do not translate into a 6-loss team, so the Bearcats were an undervalued team coming into 2016.  Cincinnati is 2-0 on the season, including an easy win at Purdue last week.  Quarterback Hayden Moore is now under center full time, and he’s been terrific so far this season.  Moore has thrown for 510 yards with 5 touchdowns and just 1 interception.  He will face a Houston defense that gave up 323 passing yards on a whopping 9.5 yards per pass attempt to Oklahoma back in Week 1.  My power ratings only make Houston a 3-point favorite in this game, so getting a touchdown with the Bearcats presents some excellent value.  We’ll take the points with Cincinnati in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CINCINNATI (+).

Pittsburgh will be without a couple of key offensive weapons for tonight’s season opener in Washington.  Running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Martavis Bryant are both suspended, and they are the go-to guys for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.  Big Ben has an emerging performance pattern over the last two seasons where he has performed significantly better at home than on the road.  At home, Roethlisberger owns an incredible 39/11 touchdown/interception ratio over the past two years.  But on the road, Roethlisberger has a 14/14 TD/INT ratio, and without his two best offensive playmakers, it’s hard to imagine a big game from Pittsburgh’s quarterback tonight.

Washington played well down the stretch in 2015 as they won their final four games all straight-up as an underdog to win their division and make the playoffs.  The Redskins are healthy and at full strength coming into this season, so that gives them a nice edge over the Steelers tonight.  Washington was also a much better team at home last year where they went 6-2 SU in the regular season and 5-1 ATS as an underdog.  The Redskins have the offense to exploit a terrible Pittsburgh secondary, and that will be magnified since the Steelers have injury concerns to their pass rushers.  Washington is simply in much better shape coming into this game and the Redskins present value at home on Monday night.

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

New England will be without quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games of the season due to a suspension.  The Patriots will also be without Rob Gronkowski because of an injury.  While it’s true the Patriots are shorthanded and starting an inexperienced quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo, don’t underestimate head coach Bill Belichick having all training camp to formulate a game plan for Arizona.  Belichick is the best in the business at finding and attacking an opponent’s weakness, so we can expect the Patriots to be well-prepared for the Cardinals on both sides of the ball in this game.

Arizona is certainly a very good team that also has an excellent head coach in Bruce Arians.  However, the Cardinals have performed poorly as a home favorite under Arians over his three seasons on the job.  Arizona is just 8-9 ATS when laying points at home, including a woeful 3-6 ATS in that role in 2015.  The Cardinals are a team built to excel as an underdog, and in fact, Arizona is 15-8 ATS when getting points under Arians.  Arizona’s offense will be facing a New England defense that should be stout once again this season; they held their opponents to just 20 points and 336 yards of offense last season.  This line is simply way overinflated, so we’ll take the points with New England on Sunday night.  

9* Play PATRIOTS (+).

Washington State made a big jump last season when they went from a 3-9 team in 2014 to a 9-3 team in 2015.  However, the Cougars were a fortunate team as five of their wins came by 7 points or less.  Washington State also won four games outright as underdogs, including two as double digit underdogs.  The Cougars were not as good as those numbers would indicate as they only out-scored their opponents by 3.8 points per game.  It was a fluky good season, and we expect major regression in 2016.  We saw that last week when the Cougars lost 45-42 as 27.5-point home favorites against FCS Eastern Washington.  The Cougars gave up a whopping 606 yards of offense in that game, so to say Washington State has a terrible defense may be an understatement.

Boise State failed to win 10 games or more in 2015 for just the second time in the past ten years.  Head coach Bryan Harsin is in his third season, and with the returning talent on hand, his team is poised for big things in 2016.  All three of their best offensive players are back, including quarterback Mark Rypien.  He was a first-team All-Mountain West selection as a true freshman, and with natural development, the sky is the limit for Rypien.  He will also benefit from a change in coaching responsibilities.  Harsin, who was the offensive coordinator under former coach Chris Petersen from 2006-2010, is calling the plays in 2016.  Boise State’s offense was terrific last week as they scored 45 points on 584 yards of total offense at UL Lafayette.  The Broncos will be able to score at will against a woeful Washington State defense, so we’ll lay the points with Boise State in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play BOISE STATE (-).

South Carolina is still in rebuilding mode despite winning their season opener at Vanderbilt.  The Gamecocks were trailing 10-0 at the half before winning on a last-second field goal.  South Carolina’s offense only tallied 14 first downs on 308 yards of total offense.  That was hardly a winning performance, especially in a SEC game.  New head coach Will Muschamp inherited a very inexperienced team that only returned nine total starters from a team that went just 3-9 last season.  However, only five of those players started the last game for one reason or another.  The Gamecocks also mixed in true freshman quarterback, Brandon McIlwain, who struggled mightily.  South Carolina’s defense has been horrendous in recent years.  The Gamecocks gave up 30.4 points and 433 yards per game in 2014, and they allowed 27.5 points and 430 yards per game in 2015.  That spells trouble in this game against the Bulldogs.  

Mississippi State was embarrassed at home by South Alabama last week; the Bulldogs lost 21-20 as 27.5-point favorites.  However, they led that game 20-7 heading into the fourth quarter before the Jaguars scored the winning touchdown with less than a minute to play.  While it’s true Mississippi State is without quarterback Dak Prescott who is now starting for the Cowboys in the NFL, their offensive strength is running the football.  The Bulldogs rushed for 239 yards on a whopping 7.0 yards per rush in last week’s game.  That strong rushing attack should control this game against South Carolina’s young and porous defense, especially after seeing Vanderbilt have rushing success last week.  This is a good bounce back spot for Mississippi State, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (-).

Florida Atlantic may be a good team in Conference USA this season, but they are simply out-classed in this game versus Miami.  The Owls have shown no ability to step-up in class on the road in recent years as their defense cannot stop teams from BCS conferences.  In their last five road games versus power conferences, Florida Atlantic has allowed 34, 45, 55, 41, and 20 points for an average of 39 points per game.  The Owls hosted the Hurricanes last season, and they gave up 44 points on 526 yards of total offense in their 24-point loss.  Florida Atlantic beat FCS Southern Illinois 38-30 last week, but they lost the first down battle 26-19 while getting out-gained 530-457 in the game.  Now they’ll hit the road while taking a major step-up in class.    

Miami did not have any ‘Golden Years’ under former head coach Al Golden.  The Hurricanes are now led by former Georgia head coach Mark Richt who stepped into a terrific situation in South Florida.  The Hurricanes’ offense returned nearly intact, including all five starters along the offensive line.  Miami scored 70 points on 523 yards of total offense in their 67-point win over Florida A&M last week.  Miami’s experienced defense has a new coordinator in Manny Diaz, and that unit was stout last week while holding their opponent to just 3 points and 197 yards of total offense.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes on Saturday night.

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Florida State returns 17 total starters; the most they’ve had in 20 years.  The defense made big strides last season by limiting opponents to just 4.7 yards per play, so expect the Seminoles to have one of the best stop units in the country.  However, the quarterback position is the biggest question mark for the Seminoles.  Redshirt freshman Deondre Francois is said to be the real deal, and he certainly looks like it on film, but this is his first collegiate start, and his team is laying too many points into a very good Mississippi team.  The Seminoles do have an excellent running back in Dalvin Cook who will take the pressure off Francois, so a conservative game plan is quite possible here.

Mississippi has improved each season under head coach Hugh Freeze.  The Rebels have won 7, 8, 9, and 10 games in his first four years on the job.  While it’s unlikely Mississippi will win 11 games this season, there’s no question they will be a very good team once again.  Quarterback Chad Kelly is a senior, so that gives him a huge experience edge over Francois in this game.  Kelly has won a lot of big games for the Rebels, including back-to-back wins over Alabama.  The Rebels’ defense has been excellent in recent years, and there’s talk they will return to the 16 points per game unit they had in 2014.  My power ratings make Florida State a 4-point favorite, so we’ll take the extra points with Mississippi in this game on Monday night.

9* Play MISSISSIPPI (+).

Todd Monken revived the once solid Southern Miss football program.  Monken improved the teams’ record in each year he was there, and it culminated with a West title in 2015.  But as is the case with success at non-power conference schools, the coach uses it as a stepping stone for a higher-profile, and a bigger paying job.  Monken left Southern Miss to be the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFL.  Jay Hopson is the new head coach; he spent six seasons under Jeff Bower at Southern Miss, so he’s returning to a very familiar place.  Hopson went 28-10 in his final three seasons as Alcorn State while winning two SWAC titles over that time.  Hopson brought defensive coordinator Tony Pecoraro with him, and his aggressive unit recorded 46 sacks and 119 tackles for loss.  The Golden Eagles return an experienced team that has an explosive offense (39.9 ppg in 2015).  Quarterback Nick Mullens and running back Ito Smith form a formidable duo in the backfield.

Kentucky has been a disappointing team under head coach Mark Stoops.  The Wildcats are just 12-24 SU in his three years, and there’s nothing pointing to a winning 2016 season.  Kentucky will be working in a new quarterback (Drew Barker) after last year’s starter Patrick Towles transferred to Boston College.  The Wildcats’ offense scored more than 27 points in just three of their ten games last season, so it’s hard to imagine much improvement this season.  Kentucky’s defense will be a major issue as they only return five starters on that side of the ball.  The Wildcats lost seven of their top eight tacklers from last year’s improved unit, so they’ll revert back to the 31.3 points per game they allowed in Stoops’ first two seasons.  My power ratings only make Kentucky 2-point favorites, so we’ll take the points with Southern Mississippi in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI (+).

Georgia will begin a new era on Saturday night as new head coach Kirby Smart replaces Mark Richt who won 145 games over the last 15 seasons.  Smart has never been a head coach; he made his mark as Alabama’s defensive coordinator over the last eight seasons.  Smart inherits a Georgia team that went 10-3 last season, but five of those wins came by 7 points or less.  The Bulldogs do return 14 starters, but their offense has to improve significantly if they expect to win 10 games or more for the third consecutive season.  Georgia’s offense averaged just 26.3 points on 377 yards per game last season, and with freshman quarterback Jacob Eason close to replacing inconsistent senior Greyson Lambert under center, the Bulldogs have many questions to answer coming into 2016.

North Carolina had their breakout season under head coach Larry Fedora last year when they went 11-3 en route to a trip to the ACC championship game.  The Tar Heels have an excellent chance at repeating last season’s success, especially since they return 14 overall starters.  North Carolina did lose quarterback Marquise Williams, but Mitch Trubisky has plenty of experience, and he also possess similar skills.  The Tar Heels also return all of their skill players from an offense that averaged 40.7 points on 487 yards per game in 2015.  North Carolina’s defense improved by 14.5 points last season, and that unit should be just as good this year.  My power ratings make this game a Pick, so getting a field goal with the Tar Heels present some good value.  We’ll take the points with North Carolina in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play NORTH CAROLINA (+).

South Carolina is in rebuilding mode.  Steve Spurrier retired, and in steps former Florida head coach Will Muschamp.  He’ll inherit a very inexperienced team that only returned nine total starters from a team that went just 3-9 last season.  However, only five of those starters are expected to start this game because the others have either lost their starting job due to injury or performance, are injured or have quit the team.  The Gamecocks will also play a true freshman at quarterback (Brandon McIlwain); young quarterbacks making their first start on the road has been a negative situation in college football over the years.  South Carolina’s defense has also been horrendous in recent years.  The Gamecocks gave up 30.4 points and 433 yards per game in 2014, and they allowed 27.5 points and 430 yards per game in 2015.

Vanderbilt is set for a breakout season in 2016.  The Commodores are in their third year under head coach Derek Mason, and they return 15 overall starters.  Mason has high expectations for his team, saying “never been more excited for what this team has to offer.”  Vanderbilt will have the services of their best offensive player, running back Ralph Webb, and their best defensive player, linebacker Zach Cunningham on the field which solidifies both sides of the ball.  Vanderbilt is 5-1 SU as a home favorite under Mason; they won those games by an average of 12.4 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Vanderbilt in this game on Thursday night. 

10* Play VANDERBILT (-).

Detroit comes into tonight’s game in Baltimore with a purpose.  According to head coach Jim Caldwell, the Lions will play their starters for the entire first half.  Detroit’s first team offense has been excellent at moving the ball so far in the preseason, but their drives haven’t resulted in points.  “We’ve moved the ball a bit, but we haven’t got the ball in the end zone with the starters and we’ve been close and we’ve had opportunities and really haven’t scored the points we would like to score,” offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter said.  “We’ve got to score points.”  Detroit also has a quarterback battle for the backup spot, so do not expect much letup in the second half. 

Baltimore is not putting too much effort into this game.  Head coach John Harbaugh saw his team decimated by injuries last season, and he’s been extremely cautious with his veterans during the preseason.  Quarterback Joe Flacco is slated to play tonight, but this will be his first live action of the season, and since he’s coming off knee surgery, the Ravens’ offense will play conservative with him under center.  “We want to be as mistake-free as we can; to allow our guys to be physical in the run game and make some yards with our runs; make some positive yards,” offensive coordinator Marc Trestman said.  Detroit is putting more into this game, so we’ll back the Lions in this game on Saturday night.  

9* Play LIONS (+).

NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways.  Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season.  It all depends on the coach’s philosophy.  Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer cares about winning games in the preseason.  In fact, Zimmer is 9-1 SU in nine preseason games with the Vikings.  “We want to be crisp, we want to look sharp and I want to see the things we’ve been practicing being taken to the game field.”  Minnesota did exactly that last week when they led the Bengals 17-7 going into the fourth quarter.  We expect more of the same from the Vikings tonight.

Seattle head coach Pete Carroll used to have the Seahawks play with a sense of purpose in the preseason, but that was during their up and coming days.  Things have changed.  Seattle’s roster has been shredded after paying their stars big money.  And because of that, Carroll has to preserve his team for the regular season.  “With all players, we limit what we ask them to do,” said Carroll.  Sharp money came in against Seattle last week in their game versus Kansas City.  That money looked to be spot on as the Seahawks trailed 16-6 going into the fourth quarter.  But Seattle scored a touchdown on the final play of the game on a Hail Mary pass with no time left, and then won the game by converting a two-point conversion.  That misleading win gives many people the false perception that the Seahawks are still trying to win in the preseason, but in reality, it’s the opposite.  We’ll back Minnesota in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play VIKINGS (+).

Denver is in terrible shape for their first preseason game tonight in Chicago.  The Broncos will be trying to find their next starting quarterback as Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian are set to battle for the top spot.  Both guys are slated to play a full quarter each, and then rookie Paxton Lynch will play the second half.  There’s no question that Denver has one of the worst quarterback rotations in the NFL, and that will be magnified by the Broncos’ offensive line issues.  The line is in shambles.  In the past week alone, the team signed two street free agents to plug holes and have available players for tonight’s game.  “That’s the kind of thing in today’s game, when you only have so many, and injuries start to mount, you need guys that can play,” said offensive coordinator Rick Dennison.

Chicago comes into this game in a much better situation.  The Bears are in their second season under head coach John Fox, so there’s no learning new schemes on both sides of the ball like last season.  Chicago also has a good quarterback rotation for preseason games with Jay Cutler slated to play the first quarter with all of the starters.  NFL veteran Brian Hoyer will then play the second and third quarters before Connor Shaw and David Fales split the fourth quarter.  Chicago is simply in a better position to succeed right now, so we’ll back the Bears in this game on Thursday night.   

9* Play BEARS (-).

Carolina comes into tonight’s game in Baltimore in much better shape than their opponent.  The Panthers have a very strong quarterback rotation that includes Cam Newton, Derek Anderson, and Joe Webb.  Newton will only play a series or two at most before Anderson plays the rest of the first half.  Anderson has plenty of NFL experience, and he’ll be facing second and third stringers on Baltimore’s defense.  Webb will then come in and play the majority of the second half; Webb has been one of the best preseason quarterbacks in the NFL over the last few years.  His presence gives Carolina a huge advantage in the second half of this game.   

Baltimore is not putting too much effort into this game.  Head coach John Harbaugh saw his team decimated by injuries last season, and he’s going to be extremely cautious with his veterans during the preseason.  “Anybody that has a health issue or anything like that is not even going to be thinking about playing,” Harbaugh said.  “I think everybody can figure out what’s going to happen. It’s going to be the young guys. It’s going to be the guys that need to play in this game that we want to find out about. It’s just going to be one of those kinds of camp games that we learn about our young guys.”  Baltimore is unlikely to play quarterback Joe Flacco, so the Ravens’ QB rotation will consist of Ryan Mallett, Josh Johnson, and Jerrod Johnson.  Carolina holds all of the edges, so we’ll back the Panthers in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play PANTHERS (-).

Atlanta will play a makeup game in Chicago against the Cubs on Thursday night.  The Braves will send Lucas Harrell to the mound for just his second start this season.  My numbers project a poor outing for Harrell against Chicago’s lineup.  Harrell projects to give up 3.0 earned runs with a horrendous 5.74 ERA and an ugly 1.88 WHIP in this game.  Harrell also projects to have a lowly 1.0 strikeout/walk ratio tonight.  The Cubs have hit .273 with a .727 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) in a limited 11 at-bats against Harrell during his career.  He is backed by a poor Atlanta bullpen that has a 4.23 ERA and 1.47 WHIP this season.  Chicago’s offense is starting to heat up once again as they’ve scored 18 total runs in their past three games after only scoring 8 total runs in the three games prior.

Chicago will start Jason Hammel who projects to have a strong outing against Atlanta’s lineup based on my numbers.  Hammel is slated to give up just 2.3 earned runs with a solid 3.61 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in this game.  Hammel also projects to have a strong 7.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 3.1 strikeout/walk ratio against the Braves tonight.  Atlanta’s offense is in poor current form as they’ve scored just 8 total runs in their last four games.  Overall, the Braves have averaged just 3.1 runs per game on the road this season with a weak .232 batting average.  The Braves normally get blown out when they lose with 20 of their past 24 losses coming by at least 2 runs or more, while the Cubs have won by at least 2 runs or more in 17 of their past 21 wins.  Look for a blowout win by Chicago, so we’ll back the Cubs on the run line in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CUBS (-1.5 runline).

Cleveland looked to be a dead team after going down 3-1 in this series.  But the Cavaliers woke up in the past two games to force Game 7 tonight at Golden State.  Cleveland won Game 5 on the Warriors’ home court by 15 points (112-97), and they won Game 6 at home by 14 points (115-101).  The Cavaliers got perfect games from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.  That duo combined for 146 of the team’s 230 total points in the last two games after shooting an incredible 56.6% (56-99) from the field, including 53.8% (14-26) shooting from three-point land.  Overall, Cleveland shot 52.5% (84-160) from the field and 39.2% (20-51) from three-point land in Games 5 and 6.  The Cavaliers are off back-to-back perfect games, but now they must hit the road once again and play Game 7 in a difficult situation.  Home teams in Game 7 of the NBA playoffs are an incredible 101-24 SU (81%) all-time, including a perfect 5-0 SU this season.  Also, 32 teams have trailed 1-3 in the NBA Finals and none of those teams ever won the series.  This is only the 3rd time in 32 occasions that a team has even forced a Game 7 when down 1-3 (those other two teams both lost Game 7).

Golden State played terrible basketball in Games 5 and 6 against Cleveland.  The Warriors shot just 38.2% (65-170) from the field and 35.8% (29-81) from three-point land.  There’s a high probability that Golden State’s poor shooting will reverse in Game 7, especially on their home court where they are 50-4 SU on the season.  The Warriors are averaging 114.8 points per game on 48.8% shooting from the field and 40.9% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, nine of Golden State’s fifteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ fifteen playoff wins have come by an average of 15.9 points per game.  Golden State has eleven home wins in the playoffs, and ten of those wins have come by 8 points or more.  Their average home win has come by a whopping 15.6 points per game in the playoffs.  Overall, Golden State owns an outstanding +14.0 point differential at home this season.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 7 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Golden State played terrible basketball in Game 5 on Monday night.  The Warriors lost that game by 15 points (112-97), but they played that game shorthanded as Draymond Green was suspended for a flagrant foul in Game 4.  Golden State shot just 36.4% (32-88) from the field and 33.3% (14-42) from three-point land.  There’s a high probability that Golden State’s poor shooting will reverse in Game 6, and we’ll see the team that dominated the league this season.  The Warriors are now 15-7 SU in the playoffs, but they only scored 97 points in Game 5.  It was just the fifth time in twenty-two playoff games in which the Warriors scored less than 100 points.  In their four previous games after a poor offensive performance, Golden State went 4-0 SU and ATS in the following game while averaging 113.3 points per game with an average winning margin of 15.5 points per game.  Golden State played one of their worst games of the playoffs in Game 5, and a big bounce back performance is expected in Game 6.

Cleveland bounced back with a supreme performance in Game 5 on the Warriors’ home court.  The Cavaliers got perfect games from LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.  That duo combined for 82 of the team’s 112 total points after shooting an incredible 61.1% (33-54) from the field, including 60% (9-15) shooting from three-point land.  Overall, Cleveland shot 53% (44-83) from the field and 41.7% (10-24) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers’ offense was so efficient in Game 5, and they did it all with their bench only scoring 12 total points.  We expect major regression from Cleveland in this game.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, nine of Golden State’s fifteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ fifteen playoff wins have come by an average of 15.9 points per game with their four road playoff wins coming by a whopping 13 points per game.  We’ll take the points with the Warriors in Game 6 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.  NBA Playoff Game of the Year.

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

Cleveland returns to Golden State down 3-1 in this series, and it’s a foregone conclusion that the Warriors will win back-to-back championships.  Cleveland is a dead team, and that was evident in their second half performance in Game 4 on their home court last Friday night.  The Cavaliers were lethargic and unemotional while getting out-scored 58-42 by Golden State.  Cleveland’s offense was pathetic, and their defensive rotations were downright embarrassing.  The Cavaliers showed quit, and it would be very surprising if they came with a good effort in Game 5 tonight, especially since they know this series is all but over. 

Golden State played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they bring their ‘A’ game, they are extremely difficult to beat.  The Warriors will be without Draymond Green tonight, and while his absence would be quite important over the long term, it should have little impact on one single game.  That’s because Cleveland just showed they’ve quit, and without Green on the floor, we can be assured Golden State won’t take this game lightly.  Golden State has eleven home wins in the playoffs so far, and ten of those wins have come by 8 points or more.  Their average home win has come by a whopping 15.6 points per game in the playoffs.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 50-3 at home where they own an outstanding +14.6 point differential this season.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday night.

9* Play WARRIORS (-).

Golden State played terrible basketball in Game 3 on Wednesday night.  The Warriors lost that game by 30 points (120-90), but losing that game was expected.  Golden State shot just 42.1% (32-76) from the field and an ugly 27.3% (9-33) from three-point land.  Golden State also hit just 65.4% (17-26) from the free throw line.  There’s a high probability that Golden State’s poor shooting will reverse in Game 4 tonight, and we’ll see the team that dominated the league this season.  The Warriors are now 14-6 SU in the playoffs, but they only scored 90 points in Game 3.  It was just the fourth time in twenty playoff games in which the Warriors scored less than 100 points.  In their three previous games after a poor offensive performance, Golden State went 3-0 SU and ATS in the following game while averaging 115 points per game with an average winning margin of 17 points per game.  Golden State played their worst game of the playoffs, and a big bounce back performance is expected in Game 4.

Cleveland bounced back with a supreme performance in Game 3 on their home court.  The Cavaliers got a total team effort as four of their five starters scored 14 points or more while all five scored 9 points or more.  Overall, Cleveland shot 52.7% (48-91) from the field and 48% (12-25) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers’ offense was so efficient in Game 3, and they did it all without Kevin Love who was out with a concussion.  Love is expected to play tonight, but his return alters the recent Cleveland lineup that played outstanding basketball together.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, eight of Golden State’s fourteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ fourteen playoff wins have come by an average of 16.3 points per game with their three road playoff wins coming by a whopping 13.7 points per game.  We’ll take the points with the Warriors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

Golden State is now 2-0 SU and ATS against Cleveland after winning the first two games of the NBA Finals in easy fashion.  The Warriors had little trouble in those games; they won Game 1 by 15 points (104-89) and Game 2 by 33 points (110-77).  Because of their last two blowout wins, tonight’s pointspread presents some excellent value in playing against Golden State.  In fact, prior to the series starting, one sports book had a look-ahead line of Cleveland -3 for Game 3.  The Warriors shot 54.3% (44-81) from the field and 45.5% (15-33) from three-point land in Game 2.  Four players scored in double digits, and eleven players scored overall.  That was a complete team effort by Golden State, but off such a complete performance and now on the road, we expect some regression by the Warriors in Game 3. 

Cleveland has been terrible so far in this series, but the Cavaliers will be primed for a breakout performance on their home court tonight.  Cleveland’s offense was awful once again in Game 2 as they only shot 35.4% (28-79) from the field and 21.7% (5-23) from three-point land.  Overall, the Cavaliers have shot just 36.8% (60-163) from the field and 27.3% (12-44) from three-point land in the two games.  Cleveland’s offense will perform much better at home where they average 107.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 38% shooting from three-point land.  While it’s unfortunate Kevin Love will miss tonight’s game with a concussion, the Cavaliers showed they could beat Golden State without him in last year’s Finals.  Cleveland will come with their best performance, so we’ll back the Cavaliers in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night.

9* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Cleveland lost to Golden State by 15 points (104-89) in Game 1 on Thursday night.  Cleveland’s offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 38.1% (32-84) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  Cleveland’s only offensive contributions came from their best three players as LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love combined to score 66 of their 89 total points.  The Cavaliers got little production from anybody else, and their second unit was simply awful in Game 1.  The bench scored a total of 10 points in over 58 minutes of combined playing time, and incredibly, they only combined to take 10 total shots.  They were passive and timid, but we expect a much better performance tonight by Cleveland’s role players.

Golden State didn’t play their best by any means in Game 1, but they were still able to win that game by 15 points.  However, the Warriors got extreme performances by unlikely contributors as Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa combined to score 31 points on an incredible 86.7% (13-15) shooting from the field.  That combined performance was an anomaly, and it allowed Golden State to win by an inflated margin.  The game was within a single point late in the third quarter as well, so the final margin of victory is somewhat misleading.  Overall, Golden State shot 49.4% (43-87) from the field.  Cleveland is still one of the best teams in the league and Class-A teams off a blowout loss in the playoffs has been a long-term winning ATS play.  Quality Game 2 road underdogs off a loss are also an excellent play.  Cleveland qualifies in several 60%+ ATS bounce-back situations tonight, and this will be a much closer game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Cleveland in Game 2 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.

9* Play CAVALIERS (+).

Cleveland and Golden State will begin the NBA Finals on Thursday night.  The Cavaliers are 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS in the playoffs so far.  The Warriors are 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS in the playoffs.  So both teams have been dominating.  Cleveland was a double digit favorite five times, going 4-1 ATS while Golden State was a double digit favorite two times, going 1-1 ATS.  Both teams faced similar paths to the Finals; the Cavaliers opponents were a combined 148-98 during the regular season while the Warriors opponents were a combined 140-106 during the regular season.  Cleveland’s defense has been terrific in the playoffs, but the numbers were better at home than on the road.  In seven home games, the Cavaliers gave up just 90.4 points per game.  In seven road games, the Cavaliers gave up 94 points per game.  They allowed 98 points or more in five of those seven road games.  So the Cavaliers’ defense numbers are skewed, and they will now take a monumental step-up in offensive class against the Warriors who average 115.5 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 41.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  

Golden State set an NBA record with a 73-9 mark in the regular season.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but a lot of that had to do with the big lineup Oklahoma City threw at them.  Golden State lost Game 1 at home to the Thunder, and they got behind 3-1 in that series.  So we expect the Warriors to bring their ‘A’ game tonight, and if they do, they will cruise to an easy win.  Golden State has nine home wins in the playoffs so far, and eight of those wins have come by 8 points or more.  Their average home win has come by a whopping 15.4 points per game in the playoffs.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 48-3 at home where they own an outstanding +14.2 point differential this season.  Golden State also went 2-0 versus Cleveland in the regular season, winning those games by 6 and 36 points.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Oklahoma City played perfect basketball in Games 3 and 4 on their home court.  The Thunder scored a season-high 133 points in regulation time in Game 3 after shooting 50% (46-92) from the field and 89.2% (33-37) from the free throw line.  Oklahoma City scored 62 points inside the paint, and they also had 29 fast-break points.  In Game 4, Oklahoma City scored 118 points after six different players scored 10 points or more, including all five of their starters.  Oklahoma City was terrific in both of those games, but they are now in a bad situational spot for Game 5 on the road against the Warriors.

Golden State was thoroughly embarrassed in Games 3 and 4 by Oklahoma City.  The Warriors lost Game 3 by 28 points (133-105), and they lost Game 4 by 24 points (118-94).  Off those two poor performances, and with a return to their strong home court, we expect a peak performance by Golden State tonight.  The Warriors won Game 2 off a loss at home by 27 points (118-91).  Golden State has dominated Oklahoma City at home all season.  In fact, the Warriors have held biggest lead edges of 20-9, 17-9, 14-8, and 35-1 in their four homes games versus the Thunder.  Golden State qualifies in a solid 60% ATS playoff bounce-back situation and they should perform much better at home tonight where they are 46-3 SU this season, including 3-1 SU/ATS versus the Thunder, with wins by 8, 15, and 27 point margins.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 5 on Thursday night.

9* Play WARRIORS (-).

Toronto looked like a team on the verge of getting swept after losing the first two games of this series in Cleveland by 31 and 19 points.  The Raptors were written off, but after winning the last two games at home to tie the series at 2 games apiece, Toronto’s bandwagon is full.  The Raptors will head back to Cleveland for Game 5 tonight, and this game sets up nicely for the home team from a performance pattern perspective.  Toronto scored 204 total points in their last two games after shooting a combined 49.7% (80-161) from the field, 35.8% (19-53) from three-point land, and 78.1% (25-32) from the free throw line.  To compare, Toronto only scored 173 total points in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland after shooting just 41.1% (65-158) from the field, 24.6% (14-57) from three-point land, and 76.3% (29-38) from the free throw line.  The Raptors’ offense will regress tonight while their opponent is set to bounce back with a strong performance.

Cleveland played perfect basketball in Games 1 and 2 en route to a 2-0 series lead.  But the Cavaliers lost their way in Toronto as they played terrible basketball in the next two games.  Cleveland scored a total of 183 points in Games 3 and 4 after shooting just 41.4% (67-162) from the field and 32.9% (27-82) from three-point land.  Cleveland only had 25 total attempts from the free throw line in the last two games; Toronto made the same amount in 32 attempts.  That will clearly change with tonight’s game on Cleveland’s home court; expect a favorable home whistle for the Cavaliers.  Cleveland’s offense will also perform much better on their home court where they’ve scored 100 points or more in 13 consecutive games dating back to the regular season.  We’ll lay the points with Cleveland in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Golden State was thoroughly embarrassed in Game 3 by Oklahoma City.  The Warriors lost that game by 28 points (133-105).  That was a complete reversal from Game 2 when Golden State won by 27 points (118-91).  The Warriors’ offense was terrible on Sunday night.  They only scored 105 points on 41.3% (38-92) shooting from the field and 30.3% (10-33) shooting from three-point land.  Even though Stephen Curry and Clay Thompson scored 42 points combined, they both shot the ball terribly from three-point land.  They combined to hit just 26.3% (5-19) from beyond the arc.  Golden State’s leading scorers will play much better tonight, and their three-point shooting will be much more efficient.

Oklahoma City played perfect basketball in Game 3.  The Thunder scored a season-high 133 points in regulation time after shooting 50% (46-92) from the field and 89.2% (33-37) from the free throw line.  Oklahoma City scored 62 points inside the paint, and they also had 29 fast-break points.  The Thunder had six different players score 10 points or more, including four of their five starters.  Oklahoma City’s defense was terrific in Game 3, but that one performance does not erase how poorly they played in their previous game.  Golden State’s offense will play much better tonight, and in turn their defense will step-up as well.  We’ll back the Warriors in Game 4 on Tuesday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Golden State will play Game 3 in Oklahoma City tonight with the series tied at one game apiece.  The Warriors bounced back strong at home in Game 2 when they beat the Thunder by 27 points (118-91).  Golden State shot 50.6% (43-85) from the field and 46.4% (13-28) from three-point land.  The Warriors had seven different players score 10 points or more, including four of their five starters.  Golden State’s defense was terrific in Game 2, but that one performance does not erase how poorly they’ve played in their previous games.  Portland had little trouble scoring on Golden State’s defense in the previous series as they averaged 114.2 points per game.  Oklahoma City scored 108 points in Game 1 despite shooting just 43.8% from the field.  

Oklahoma City was very successful in their last series while implementing a big lineup versus the Spurs’ ‘small ball’ style.  It worked to perfection for the Thunder as they dominated the boards and limited San Antonio’s second-chance points.  Oklahoma City was able to duplicate that success in Game 1 against the Warriors, but they faltered on Wednesday night.  The Thunder sulked on defense because their offense played so poorly while only shooting 44.9% (35-78) from the field and 30.4% (7-23) from three-point land.  Russell Westbrook had a really bad game as he scored just 16 points on 35.7% (5-14) shooting from the field.  Oklahoma City’s offense will play much better tonight, and in turn their defense will step-up as well.  We’ll take the points with Oklahoma City in Game 3 on Sunday night.

10* Play THUNDER (+).

Cleveland is now 10-0 SU in the playoffs after winning the first two games of this series against Toronto.  The Cavaliers had little trouble in those games; they won Game 1 by 32 points (115-84) and Game 2 by 19 points (108-89).  However, the Cavaliers have not been as dominant as their 10-0 record indicates.  Six of their ten playoff wins were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  Because of their last two blowout wins, the pointspread on tonight’s game is greatly inflated.  To compare, the Cavaliers were just 5-point road favorites in Detroit in Game 3 and just 2.5-point road favorites in Atlanta in Game 3 after going up 2-0 in the series against those opponents.  Toronto is a better team than the Pistons and Hawks yet they are getting more points in a similar situation.  Cleveland was only +2.5 points better than Toronto in all games this season, which would normally translate to Pick'em line on the road, so this shows how inflated tonight's pointspread has become based on recent results.

The Raptors hung tough in three of four quarters in Game 2 on Thursday night; Cleveland only out-scored Toronto 76-69 combined in the first, third, and fourth quarter.  The second quarter did them in as the Cavaliers out-scored the Raptors 32-20 to take control of the game.  Toronto’s offense was terrible once again as they only shot 40.2% (33-82) from the field and 27.3% (9-33) from three-point land.  The Raptors have shot just 41.1% (65-158) from the field and 24.6% (14-57) from three-point land in the two games so far.  But Toronto’s offense scored 111.1 points per 100 possessions against Cleveland’s defense in three regular season meetings; that ranked them 5th against any opponent.

Kyle Lowry has been noticeably poor in the first two games of this series, scoring just 8 and 10 points, but keep in mind he scored 27, 23, and 43 points in the three regular season meetings against the Cavaliers which was his best output against any conference opponent.  He will likely bounce back with a much better performance in Game 3 at home.  Remember, he had back-to-back poor games against Indiana and Miami in the previous two rounds, scoring just 11 and 7 points, and then he averaged 26.1 points in his next six games.  The Raptors now return home where they are 38-11 SU this season, and this should lead to their best performance, so we’ll take the inflated points with the Raptors in Game 3 on Saturday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Toronto got embarrassed by Cleveland in Game 1 on Tuesday night; the Raptors lost by 31 points (115-84).  Toronto hung tough in the first quarter as they only trailed by 5 points after the first 12 minutes of the game.  But over the final three quarters, the Raptors got out-scored 82-56 by the Cavaliers.  Toronto beat Cleveland in two of three regular season meetings, so the Raptors are quite capable of beating Cleveland even though it didn’t look like it in Game 1.  Toronto’s offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 42.1% (32-76) from the field and 20.8% (5-24) from three-point land.  Toronto’s offense scored 111.1 points per 100 possessions against Cleveland’s defense this season; that ranked them 5th against any opponent.  So the Raptors’ offense can easily play much better offense tonight.  Kyle Lowry averaged 31 points per game against Cleveland in the regular season, the most he scored against any Eastern Conference opponent.  But he only scored 8 points on 28.6% (4-14) shooting from the field, including 0-7 from three-point land. 

Cleveland has yet to lose a game in the playoffs; they are now 9-0 after sweeping Detroit and Atlanta and winning Game 1 of this series.  However, the Cavaliers have not been as dominant as their 9-0 record indicates.  Six of those nine games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play, so the games were highly competitive.  Cleveland shot well above normal from three-point land as they hit 46.2% from beyond the arc in their first eight games of the playoffs.  The Cavaliers were too reliant on shooting three’s as 42.8% of their overall shots came from beyond the arc.  In Game 1, Cleveland shot 35% (7-20) from three, but they shot 55.4% (41-74) from the field.  Cleveland went into their last game off 8 full days of rest, and after a stellar performance with a lengthy layoff, we expect major regression tonight.  We’ll take the generous points with the Raptors in Game 2 on Thursday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Toronto needed seven games to beat Miami in their last series, so the Raptors may be a little gassed to start this series.  But often times, teams in the Raptors’ situation play off momentum and shock their opponent who takes them lightly in the first game.  Toronto beat Cleveland in two of three regular season meetings, so there’s no lack of confidence either.  The Raptors have the best second unit remaining in the playoffs, so they’ll have no drop-off when their starters are getting rest.  That will be an important factor in this series against Cleveland, especially since the Cavaliers’ bench is older and slower at every position.  Toronto’s offense scored 111.1 points per 100 possessions against Cleveland’s defense this season; that ranked them 5th against any opponent.  Kyle Lowry averaged 31 points per game against Cleveland, the most he scored against any Eastern Conference opponent.  Toronto has some very favorable offensive match-ups in this series.

Cleveland has yet to lose a game in the playoffs after sweeping Detroit and Atlanta.  However, the Cavaliers were not as dominant as their 8-0 SU record indicates.  Six of those eight games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  Cleveland also shot well above normal from three-point land as they hit 46.2% from beyond the arc.  The Cavaliers were too reliant on shooting three’s as 42.8% of their overall shots came from beyond the arc.  Cleveland has only averaged 30.8 points per game inside the paint, ranking them dead last in the playoffs in that particular category.  Cleveland hasn’t played a game in 8 full days, so it might take time for the Cavaliers to get back into game rhythm.  This line is over-inflated based on recent results as Cleveland was just +2.5 points better than Toronto in all games this season.  The line value is with the Raptors in Game 1 tonight.

9* Play RAPTORS (+).

Oklahoma City and Golden State have had plenty of time to prepare for Game 1 tonight, so we expect both teams to bring solid efforts.  The Thunder upset San Antonio in their last series, and they did so by playing a much different lineup.  Oklahoma City was very successful while implementing a big lineup versus the Spurs’ ‘small ball’ style.  It worked to perfection for the Thunder as they dominated the boards and limited San Antonio’s second-chance points.  If Oklahoma City can duplicate that success against the best ‘small ball’ team in the NBA, then they can take the Warriors to the brink in this series.

Golden State had a harder than expected time in beating Portland in their last series.  The Warriors struggled with the Trail Blazers in the last three games as they lost, won by 7 points in overtime, and only won by 4 points in Game 5 as a 13.5-point home favorite.  Portland had little trouble scoring on Golden State’s defense as the Blazers averaged 114.2 points per game.  Golden State’s defensive struggles will continue against an Oklahoma City team that is averaging 111.9 points per 100 possessions on the road in the playoffs.  The line value is with Oklahoma City in what should be a close and competitive Game 1 tonight.

9* Play THUNDER (+). 

Miami played terrific basketball at home in Game 6 to force today’s Game 7 back in Toronto.  The Heat scored 103 points on 47.6% (40-84) shooting from the field.  That was the first time either team eclipsed the century mark in regulation time in this series, and off such a performance, we expect Miami to regress some in this game.  Four of Miami’s five starters scored 12 points or more; that unit combined to score 79 of their 103 total points.  Overall, the Heat had five players score in double digits in Game 6.  Miami’s bench out-scored Toronto’s bench 24-15, but considering the Raptors have the best second unit remaining in the playoffs, it’s highly unlikely the Heat will repeat that performance this afternoon.

Toronto returns home for Game 7, and we expect a strong bounce back performance this afternoon by the Raptors.  Toronto’s offense was terrible on Friday night.  The Raptors only scored 91 points on 41.5% (34-82) shooting from the field and 25% (4-16) shooting from three-point land.  Despite the loss, Toronto did out-score Miami 46-44 inside the paint, and they also held a 12-5 edge in fast break points.  That’s a positive sign for Toronto heading into Game 7, especially since the excellent Raptors bench is expected to play much better in this game.  Home teams are now 99-24 SU (80%) in the history of Game 7 in the NBA Playoffs, including 2-0 already this season.  We’ll lay the points with Toronto at home in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

San Antonio once again played an inexplicably bad game on Tuesday night when they lost 95-91 at home to Oklahoma City.  The Spurs’ offense was terrible in three of the four quarters while only scoring 16, 24, and 19 points.  San Antonio blew a 13-point second half lead after getting out-scored 26-19 over the final 12 minutes of the game.  Overall, the Spurs shot just 40.2% (35-87) from the field in Game 5.  San Antonio has the best bench in the NBA, but that second unit was awful, scoring just 11 total points in the last game.  San Antonio was dominant in their 32-point (124-92) win in Game 1 of this series which was a more accurate depiction of the team's true abilities.  San Antonio is an incredible 14-3 SU off a loss this season with their average win coming by a whopping +17.4 points per game, so they are quite capable of a supreme effort in Game 6 tonight.  Class-A teams off back-to-back losses has been a consistently profitable play in the NBA Playoffs for several decades.

Oklahoma City trailed throughout Game 4 and Game 5; they were down by 11 and 13 points in those games respectively.  The Thunder have now out-scored the Spurs 60-35 over the final 24 minutes of the last two games to take a 3-2 series lead.  Oklahoma City is basically Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and when the team gets limited production from the supporting cast, it’s difficult for them to beat an elite team like the Spurs.  But Steven Adams, Dion Waiters, and Enes Canter have combined to score 73 points on 60% (27-45) shooting from the field in the last two games; both resulting in Thunder wins.  It’s highly unlikely those players will repeat their performances in three consecutive games, and that puts Oklahoma City in a bad spot for tonight’s game.  We’ll back San Antonio in a solid bounce-back spot in Game 6 on Thursday night.

10* Play SPURS (-).

Miami and Toronto are all tied at 2 games apiece heading into Game 5 tonight.  The Heat showed a lot of resilience in their come from behind overtime win in Game 4 on Monday night.  Miami’s offense was terrible in that game, especially from three-point land.  The Heat shot an ugly 6.7% (1-15) from beyond the arc, and they still found a way to win the game.  Miami’s offense has been poor in the last two games as they’ve shot a combined 43.9% (69-157) from the field and 15.2% (5-33) from three-point land.  Miami’s strength is their ability to get to the free throw line.  Over the last two games, Miami is shooting 85.7% (42-49) from the line, and that has allowed them to be competitive despite the poor offensive shooting.

Toronto basically handed Miami the win in Game 4, and that type of loss can be tough to overcome even in the playoffs.  The Raptors are led by their guards Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, but neither has been able to dent Miami’s defense in this series.  Lowry has scored a total of 68 points on 35.4% (23-65) shooting from the field while DeRozan has scored 70 points on 35% (28-80) shooting from the field.  Toronto is also without starting center Jonas Valanciunas because of an ankle injury; his absence simply puts more pressure on Lowry and DeRozan.  All four games in this series have been decided by 7 points or less with three of the four games going to overtime.  We expect another close game throughout, so we’ll take Miami plus the points in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play HEAT (+).

Oklahoma City has won two games in this series, but the Thunder were actually on their way to losing both of those games.  Oklahoma City trailed throughout Game 4 on Sunday night, and they were down by 11 points before playing an outstanding fourth quarter.  The Thunder out-scored the Spurs 34-16 over the final 12 minutes of the game to even the series up at 2 games apiece.  Oklahoma City shot 50.6% (40-79) from the field with Kevin Durant having a dominating game.  Durant scored 41 points on 56% (14-25) shooting from the field, and he also made 10 of his 13 free throw attempts.  Oklahoma City finally got contributions from players other than Durant and Russell Westbrook as Steven Adams, Dion Waiters, and Enes Canter combined to score 44 points on 64% (16-25) shooting from the field.  It’s highly unlikely those players will repeat that performance, and that puts Oklahoma City in a bad spot for tonight’s game.

San Antonio’s offense was terrible in the fourth quarter of Game 4 as they only scored 16 total points.  Overall, the Spurs shot an ugly 16.7% (2-12) from three-point land.  Two of San Antonio’s five starters, Tim Duncan and Danny Green, failed to score a single point in Game 4.  The Spurs once again had to rely on LeMarcus Aldridge who scored 20 points, bringing his 4-game total to 123 points scored in this series.  San Antonio has yet to repeat their complete team effort of Game 1 when they won by 32 points (124-92), but we expect it tonight.  San Antonio is an incredible 14-2 SU off a loss this season with their average win coming by a whopping 17.4 points per game.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by San Antonio, so we’ll back the Spurs in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

9* Play SPURS (-).

San Antonio bounced back strongly in Game 3 with their 100-96 win in Oklahoma City.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Spurs in that game, and we’ll come right back with them in Game 4 tonight.  Despite their last win, San Antonio did not play close to their best basketball as they only shot 43.4% (33-76) from the field.  The Spurs’ offense has been poor in the last two games as they’ve shot a combined 42.9% (73-170) from the field and 38.1% (16-42) from three-point land.  Aside from LeMarcus Aldridge who has scored 65 points on 54.8% (23-42) shooting from the field in the last two games, the other four San Antonio starters have combined to score just 92 points on 39.1% (34-87) shooting from the field.  The above numbers simply show how much San Antonio has been off their game.  San Antonio will put a complete game together tonight, and that spells trouble for the Thunder.

Oklahoma City fought back from a 15-point deficit in Game 3 to temporarily take the lead late in the fourth quarter.  But the Thunder couldn’t hold on, and they ultimately lost by 4 points.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook once again played terrific as the duo combined to score 57 of the team’s 96 total points.  In the past two games, Durant and Westbrook have scored 114 total points on 45.2% (42-93) shooting from the field.  However, the supporting cast has been awful for the Thunder, and they simply cannot beat a complete team like San Antonio without others scoring.  We expect a breakout performance by San Antonio, so we’ll back the Spurs in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play SPURS (-).

San Antonio played perfect basketball in Game 1 of this series, so they were expected to regress in Game 2.  The Spurs did exactly that as they only scored 97 points in a home loss on Monday night.  San Antonio’s offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 42.6% (40-94) from the field and an ugly 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land.  At one point in the game, San Antonio had yet to attempt a free throw while the Thunder already had 14 free throw attempts.  Aside from LeMarcus Aldridge who scored 41 points on 71.4% shooting from the field, the other four San Antonio starters combined to score just 32 points on 30.4% (14-46) shooting from the field.  The above numbers simply show how much San Antonio was off their game.  But with three full days off since that game, we expect the Spurs to bounce back strong with a complete team effort in Game 3.

Oklahoma City bounced back as expected in Game 2 after getting embarrassed by San Antonio in Game 1 by 32 points (124-92).  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook played outstanding in Game 2 as the duo combined to score 57 points on 50% (22-44) shooting from the field.  Overall, the Thunder shot 48.1% (38-79) from the field.  Oklahoma City had five players score 12 points or more, so it was a complete team effort.  San Antonio is an incredible 13-2 SU off a loss this season with their average win coming by a whopping 18.3 points per game.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by San Antonio, so we’ll back the Spurs in Game 3 on Friday night.

9* Play SPURS (-).

Cleveland took a commanding 2-0 series lead after walloping Atlanta by 25 points (123-98) on Wednesday night.  The five starters once again played terrific basketball in Game 2.  They combined to scored 85 of the team’s 123 total points with four of the five starters scoring 11 points or more.  In the first two games of this series, Cleveland’s starters have scored 168 points while shooting an incredible 56.6% (30-53) from three-point land.  Overall, the Cavaliers shot 47.1% (41-87) from the field and 55.6% (25-45) from three-point land in Game 2.  Cleveland broke an NBA record with their 25 made three’s, and off back-to-back outstanding shooting performances from beyond the arc, we expect major regression in Game 3 on Friday night, especially since this game will be played on Atlanta’s home court.

Atlanta returns home off back-to-back blowout losses.  The Hawks are in a prime situational spot for this game, especially since they are 30-14 at home this season.  Atlanta shot just 39.9% (63-158) from the field in the first two games, but the Hawks average 103.4 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8), but they’ve been horrible in this series.  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  Off back-to-back poor defensive efforts, we expect a very strong performance by the Hawks on the defensive end in this game.  This is a terrific spot for Atlanta, so we’ll take the Hawks plus the points in Game 3 on Friday night.

10* Play HAWKS (+).

Atlanta hung tough in Game 1 before eventually losing 104-93.  The Hawks actually played a terrible game on both ends of the court, but we expect a strong bounce back performance in Game 2 tonight.  Atlanta shot just 37.9% (33-87) from the field and 32.4% (11-34) from three-point land.  Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague combined for just 11 points with 6 of those points coming from the free throw line.  The duo shot just 20% (2-10) from the field, including 20% (1-5) from three-point land.  Korver and Teague combine to average 26.2 points per game, so we expect both players to perform much better tonight.  Atlanta has an elite defense as they rank 2nd in efficiency (98.8).  The Hawks were the #1 defense in the NBA over the final four months of the season (51 games) while holding opponents to just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  We expect a strong performance tonight after they executed poorly on the defensive end in their Game 1 loss on Monday night. 

Cleveland’s starters played terrific basketball in Game 1.  The starting five combined to score 83 of their 104 total points.  Four of the five starters scored 12 points or more after shooting 48% (12-25) from three-point land.  Overall, the Cavaliers shot 44.6% (37-83) from the field and 48.4% (15-31) from three-point land.  Cleveland had 10 total players score while seven players scored 8 points or more.  Despite losing by double digits, the Hawks out-scored the Cavaliers 36-32 inside the paint.  Atlanta also out-rebounded Cleveland 48-44, including a 15-10 edge on the offensive glass.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by Atlanta, so we’ll take the Hawks plus the points in Game 2 on Wednesday night.

10* Play HAWKS (+).

Oklahoma City got embarrassed by San Antonio in Game 1 as the Spurs rolled to an easy 32-point (124-92) win.  Oklahoma City played a terrible game on both ends of the court, but we expect a strong bounce back performance in Game 2 tonight.  The Thunder shot just 41.2% (35-85) from the field and a terrible 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook combined for just 30 points with 8 of those points coming from the free throw line.  The duo shot just 32.4% (11-34) from the field, including 0% (0-5) from three-point land.  Durant and Westbrook both average 24 points per game, so we expect both players to perform much better tonight.  Prior to the loss in Game 1, Oklahoma City was 14-7 SU versus San Antonio in games played with Durant, so the Thunder have had plenty of success against the Spurs in the past.

San Antonio played perfect basketball in Game 1 on Saturday night.  The Spurs scored 124 points after shooting an incredible 60.7% (51-84) from the field and an excellent 60% (9-15) from three-point land.  The Spurs had all 13 players score while three players scored 81 of the 124 points overall.  It was a complete team effort in which everybody was on their game.  In four regular season meetings this season, the teams split, but Oklahoma City’s two losses only came by 8 points (93-85) and by 4 points (102-98) in overtime.  That shows that these teams are much closer than the results of Game 1.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by Oklahoma City, so we’ll take the Thunder plus the points in Game 2 on Monday night.

10* Play THUNDER (+).

Indiana played terrific basketball in the second half of Game 6 to force tonight’s Game 7 back in Toronto.  The Pacers trailed by 4 points at the half before out-scoring the Raptors 61-39 in the second half.  Indiana got another stellar performance from Paul George in Game 6 as he scored 21 points after getting to the free throw line ten times in the game.  In Game 5, George scored 39 points on 57.9% (11-19) shooting from the field.  Those performances actually set George up to regress tonight considering he struggled mightily against the Raptors in all four regular season meetings.  He shot just 31% (20-65) from the field which was his lowest shooting percentage versus any opponent in the Eastern Conference this season.  In 59 minutes with George off the court in this series, Indiana is a -33 in points scored compared to +48 in points scored in 160 minutes with him on the court.  Overall, the Pacers’ offense only had a 98.9 offensive efficiency rating in their four regular season games against Toronto.

Toronto returns home for Game 7, and we expect a superb performance tonight by the Raptors.  The team needed a monster fourth quarter rally to beat Indiana back in Game 5, but we expect the Raptors to come out and play their best basketball from the opening tip.  In the six games in this series, Toronto has out-scored Indiana 222-198 inside the paint.  The Raptors have also dominated the glass while holding a 262-237 rebounding edge, including an 85-59 edge on the offensive glass.  Those two areas are key to winning basketball games, and the Raptors have clearly dominated Indiana in the first six games.  Toronto had a 0.448 free throw rate against the Pacers this season; the highest of any Indiana opponent.  The Raptors got to the free throw line 169 times in the six games while shooting 76.3% (129-169) from the stripe.  Toronto also has the second best bench in the NBA behind the Spurs, so they hold some serious advantages over the Pacers.  We’ll lay the points with Toronto in Game 7 of this series on Sunday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

Toronto bounced back in Game 5 as they squeaked out a 102-99 home win over Indiana.  The Raptors are now 6-3 SU versus Indiana this season; the Raptors beat the Pacers in three of four regular season meetings.  In the five games in this series, Toronto has out-scored Indiana 190-160 inside the paint.  The Raptors have also dominated the glass while holding a 222-193 rebounding edge, including a 70-47 edge on the offensive glass.  Those two areas are key to winning basketball games, and the Raptors have clearly dominated Indiana in the first five games.  Toronto had a 0.448 free throw rate against the Pacers this season; the highest of any Indiana opponent.  The Raptors got to the free throw line 144 times in the five games while shooting 78.5% (113-144) from the stripe.  Toronto also has the second best bench in the NBA behind the Spurs, so they hold some serious advantages over the Pacers.  The above numbers will continue tonight, especially since Indiana is set to regress in some areas.

Indiana played terrific in Game 5, but they blew a 17-point lead after getting out-scored 25-9 in the fourth quarter.  That type of loss is difficult to overcome, even in the playoffs.  The Pacers got another stellar performance from Paul George in Game 5 after he scored 39 points on 57.9% (11-19) shooting from the field.  That performance actually sets George up to regress tonight considering he struggled mightily against the Raptors in all four regular season meetings.  He shot just 31% (20-65) from the field which was his lowest shooting percentage versus any opponent in the Eastern Conference this season.  Overall, the Pacers’ offense only had a 98.9 offensive efficiency rating in their four regular season games against Toronto.  We’ll take the points with Toronto in Game 6 of this series on Friday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Miami played perfect in the first two games of this series, but they reverted back to normal as expected in Game 3 on Saturday.  Miami scored 123 points after shooting an incredible 57.6% (49-85) from the field and 50% (9-18) from three-point land in Game 1.  The Heat scored 115 points after shooting an incredible 57.9% (44-76) from the field and 56.2% (9-16) from three-point land in Game 2.  In the two games combined, Miami scored 238 points on 57.8% (93-161) shooting from the field and 52.9% (18-34) shooting from three-point land.  Things were much different in Game 3 as Miami only scored 80 points after shooting just 34.2% (27-79) from the field and 31.8% (7-22) from three-point land.  Miami and Charlotte are even across the board, and in fact, three of the four regular season games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  The first two games were not indicative of that, but Charlotte showed it in Game 3. 

Charlotte bounced back strong with a 16-point win in Game 3.  The Hornets led by as many as 24 points, and they out-scored Miami 52-28 inside the paint.  Charlotte ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2) during the regular season.  Charlotte actually had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.  The Hornets have a very deep team, so we expect another supreme performance by the starters and the bench in tonight’s game.  We’ll back Charlotte once again in Game 4 on Monday night.

10* Play HORNETS (-).

Miami was the most improved offense in the league after the All-Star break, so their strong offensive outputs in the first two games of this series were not surprising.  However, the Heat played back-to-back perfect games, and it simply sets them up to regress sharply tonight.  Miami scored 123 points after shooting an incredible 57.6% (49-85) from the field and 50% (9-18) from three-point land in Game 1.  The Heat scored 115 points after shooting an incredible 57.9% (44-76) from the field and 56.2% (9-16) from three-point land in Game 2.  In the two games combined, Miami has scored 238 points on 57.8% (93-161) shooting from the field and 52.9% (18-34) shooting from three-point land.  Miami now hits the road to a face a desperate team, and the likelihood of the Heat continuing to shoot like they did in the two games at home is very, very low.

Charlotte and Miami are much closer teams than the first two games indicate.  In fact, three of the four regular season games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  Charlotte ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2) during the regular season.  Charlotte actually had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.  Unfortunately, Charlotte will be without Nicolas Batum in this game after he hurt his foot late in Game 2.  But the Hornets have a very deep team, so his scoring can be made up by a few different players.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by Charlotte, so we’ll back the Hornets in Game 3 on Saturday night.

10* Play HORNETS (-).

Toronto bounced back strong in Game 2 as expected, and we’ll come right back with the Raptors in Game 3 on Thursday night.  Toronto is now 4-2 SU versus Indiana this season; the Raptors beat the Pacers in three of four regular season meetings.  In the first two games of this series, Toronto has out-scored Indiana 88-56 inside the paint.  The Raptors have also dominated the glass while holding a 96-71 rebounding edge, including a 32-15 edge on the offensive glass.  Those two areas are key to winning basketball games, and the Raptors have clearly dominated Indiana in the first two games.  Toronto had a 0.448 free throw rate against the Pacers this season; the highest of any Indiana opponent.  The Raptors got to the free throw line 63 times in the first two games while shooting 77.8% (49-63) from the stripe.  Toronto also has the second best bench in the NBA behind the Spurs, so they hold some serious advantages over the Pacers.  The above numbers will continue tonight, especially since Indiana is set to regress in some areas.

Indiana played terrific in Game 1, and they were rewarded with a 100-90 win over Toronto.  The Pacers got another stellar performance from Paul George in Game 2 after he scored 28 points on 53.3% (8-15) shooting from the field.  George scored 33 points on 54.5% (12-22) shooting from the field in Game 1.  However, those performances actually set George up to regress tonight considering he struggled mightily against the Raptors in all four regular season meetings.  He shot just 31% (20-65) from the field which was his lowest shooting percentage versus any opponent in the Eastern Conference this season.  Overall, the Pacers’ offense only had a 98.9 offensive efficiency rating in their four regular season games against Toronto.  We’ll lay the points with Toronto in Game 3 of this series on Thursday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

Charlotte got embarrassed by Miami in Game 1 as the Heat rolled to an easy 32-point (123-91) win.  However, that was not a true result as the Hornets and Heat are much closer teams than Game 1 indicated.  Charlotte ranked 9th in offensive efficiency (105.1) while the Heat finished 12th in offensive efficiency (104.2) during the regular season.  Charlotte actually had the most improved offense in the league this season as they were +7.4 points per 100 possessions better than last season.  Charlotte’s offense really took off after the All-Star break, and they were the third best in the entire league while improving +5.3 points per 100 possessions.  Charlotte’s starting lineup averaged 114.5 points per 100 possessions in 406 minutes played together this season; that ranked them #3 in the NBA.  Charlotte and Miami played just one game after the All-Star break, and it was the only game this season where the current lineups faced each other;  Charlotte won 109-106.  We’re willing to ignore the results of Game 1 as the noted numbers above are more trustworthy than a one game sample.

Miami was the most improved offense in the league after the All-Star break, so their strong offensive output in Game 1 was not surprising.  However, the Heat played a perfect game and it simply sets them up to regress sharply tonight.  Miami scored 123 points after shooting an incredible 57.6% (49-85) from the field and 50% (9-18) from three-point land.  The Heat had five players score in double figures while nine players scored overall.  It was a complete team effort in which everybody was on their game.  In four regular season meetings this season, three of the games were within 5 points with 5 minutes left to play.  That shows that these two teams are much closer than the results of Game 1 indicated.  We expect a strong bounce back performance by Charlotte, so we’ll take the Hornets plus the points in Game 2 on Wednesday night.

10* Play HORNETS (+).

Indiana played terrific in Game 1, and they were rewarded with a 100-90 win over Toronto.  The Pacers will need to play even better to win Game 2, but we do not expect that to happen.  Indiana went just 1-3 SU against the Raptors in the regular season.  A major reason for that was the play of their offense; they scored less than 100 points in three of the four games.  Overall, the Pacers’ offense only had a 98.9 offensive efficiency rating in their four regular season games against Toronto.  Indiana’s best player, Paul George, struggled mightily against the Raptors in those four games; he shot just 31% (20-65) from the field.  That was his lowest shooting percentage versus any opponent in the Eastern Conference.  However, the Pacers scored 100 points on 52.4% (11-21) shooting from three-point land.  George scored 33 points on 54.5% (12-22) shooting from the field.  Indiana played well above their average against Toronto in Game 1, so we expect major regression in Game 2 tonight.

Toronto continued their pattern of losing at home in Game 1 of a playoff series.  The Raptors were unable to recover from those losses in the past, but we expect a different outcome for Toronto, especially in tonight’s game.  Toronto has a favorable matchup against Indiana as noted above, and it’s hard to see them playing another poor game tonight.  The Raptors are 32-10 on their home court this season where they average 104.6 points per game and allow just 98.4 points per game.  Despite losing Game 1, the Raptors still out-scored the Pacers 42-26 inside the paint, and they got to the free throw line 38 times.  Toronto had a 0.448 free throw rate against the Pacers this season; the highest of any Indiana opponent.  The Raptors also have the second best bench in the NBA behind the Spurs, so a full team effort tonight gets the job done.  We’ll lay the points with Toronto in Game 2 of this series on Monday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

Utah is still alive for a playoff spot, but the odds of the Jazz actually getting in are stacked against them.  Utah needs Houston to lose to Sacramento, but the Kings are 15.5-point home favorites, and they’ll be playing a team that will be without all of their best players.  Utah knows they basically have zero chance at getting the final playoff spot, and because of that, they’ve decided to shutdown some of their better players as well.  Rudy Gobert did not even make the trip to Los Angeles, and Alec Burks who just returned from injury, is questionable after injuring his knee in the last game.  After seeing Houston win earlier in the night, the Jazz will have difficulty in this game, especially since they’ll be playing a motivated opponent.

Los Angeles will play their final game of the season, and it will also be the final game for one of the NBA greats.  Kobe Bryant is retiring after tonight, so this will be his last game in a NBA uniform.  The Lakers have had a dreadful season, but a win tonight will be the right way for Kobe to go out.  Los Angeles will certainly come with their best effort, and they are getting a vulnerable opponent on top of that.  The Lakers will be primed for one of their better games, so taking the points has some value in this game on Wednesday night.\

9* Play LAKERS (+).

San Antonio played at Golden State last night, and the Spurs lost 112-101 to the Warriors.  Head coach Gregg Popovich decided to play everybody in last night’s game, and if his pattern of resting players holds form, the Spurs will likely be without the majority of their starters tonight.  That should be the case considering San Antonio is playing their third road game in four nights, and they will be doing so in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  Also, the Spurs will return home and host Golden State on Sunday, so this is a meaningless sandwich game.  San Antonio also had some major injury scares last night, including LeMarcus Aldridge who suffered a dislocated finger in the game.  

Denver has been a hard-trying team all season despite their poor record.  The Nuggets have had two full days of rest to prepare for tonight’s game, and that gives them a big scheduling advantage over a San Antonio team playing on back-to-back nights.  Denver owns 17 wins on their home court this season, but they’ve lost their last three home games.  The Nuggets will come with a peak performance tonight, especially since they are playing one of the elite teams in the league.  Overall, Denver is averaging 104.2 points per game at home this season, so they have enough offense to trade points with the Spurs if Popovich decides to give minutes to his better players.  This is a terrific spot for Denver, so we’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Friday night. 

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Minnesota comes into tonight’s game in Sacramento off a monumental upset of the Warriors on Tuesday night.  The Timberwolves beat Golden State 124-117 in overtime after shooting 51.2% (44-86) from the field and 47.1% (8-17) from three-point land.  Five players scored in double figures while five players played 33 minutes or more; three players played 40 minutes or more.  Minnesota closed as 14-point underdogs in that game, and that win was certainly unexpected.  Prior to that game, the Timberwolves had lost three consecutive games by margins of 20, 13, and 10 points.  Minnesota’s offense scored 85 points or less in all three of those games, so the sudden reversal of form in the Golden State game came out of nowhere.  That win sets Minnesota up in a major letdown spot for tonight’s meaningless game in Sacramento against the Kings.

Sacramento is just 31-47 on the season, but their last two home games have some meaning.  The Kings are likely playing their final games in this arena, and since their last home game is against Oklahoma City, tonight is their last winnable game.  Sacramento has alternated wins and losses over their last six games, and since they come in off a loss in their last game, we expect a win tonight if their current trend holds form.  The Kings are also taking a big step down in class after recently playing a slew of teams fighting for playoff spots and positioning.  Sacramento is averaging 107.9 points per game on 47% shooting from the field at home this season.  That matches-up well with Minnesota’s defense that allows 106.9 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field on the road this season.  We’ll lay the points with Sacramento in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play KINGS (-).

The Clippers and Lakers played last night, and the game was a noncompetitive blowout.  The better team in Los Angeles (Clippers) won by 22 points (103-81).  The Clippers shot 51.3% (40-78) from the field with 13 different players all scoring at least 2 points or more.  The Clippers are essentially locked into their playoff position, so the team has nothing to gain over their last five games of the regular season.  Head coach Doc Rivers has a tendency to rest his starters late in the season in order to preserve them for the playoffs.  That is especially true when his team is on a back-to-back set as they are tonight.  Rivers will likely give his second unit the majority of the minutes tonight, especially since the team is playing their third game in four nights, and their fifth game over the last eight nights.       

The Lakers are having an embarrassing bad season as they come into tonight’s game with a 16-61 record.  However, tonight’s rematch with the Clippers will bring out a big effort by the Lakers, especially after last night’s poor performance.  Head coach Byron Scott called his team out after bringing little effort: “It bothers me that his last five, six, seven, eight games are going to be with the way we’re playing as a team,” Scott said.  He’s referring to Kobe Bryant’s career coming to an end, and with this being his last game against the Clippers, we expect a peak performance by the Lakers.  “The bottom line is you have to be a professional, you’ve got to come out and play hard every single night. If it’s the last game of the season or five games left in the season, because you’re still getting paid.”  The Clippers could care less about this game while the Lakers will come with a much better effort, so we’ll take the points in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play LAKERS (+).

New Orleans is a mash unit right now.  The Pelicans had eight players suffer season-ending injuries, so their current roster does not resemble one of NBA quality.  New Orleans has played in three consecutive competitive games with their poor roster, but they can’t maintain that level of play with the guys they are sending out onto the court.  The Pelicans only lost by 8 points (100-92) to the Spurs, and then they beat the Nuggets by 6 points (101-95) and the Nets by 19 points (106-87).  New Orleans will play their third road game over their last four games, and they are just 9-29 away from home this season.  The Pelicans give up 105.5 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 36.6% shooting from three-point land on the road.         

Philadelphia is also having an embarrassing bad season as they come into tonight’s game with a 9-68 record.  However, tonight’s opponent presents the 76ers with a legitimate chance at getting their 10th win of the season.  Philadelphia has played a brutal schedule as of late with games against the Warriors, Thunder, Celtics, Pacers (twice), Trail Blazers, and the Hornets (twice).  All of those teams are currently in the playoffs, so the 76ers had little chance of winning those games.  Philadelphia’s offense has actually scored 102 points or more in four of their last six games, so they are in good current form.  The 76ers’ defense is also taking a major drop in class against the limited New Orleans offense.  This is one of Philadelphia’s last chances to get a much-needed win, so we’ll back the 76ers in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play 76ERS (-).

Villanova and North Carolina were the two most impressive teams throughout the tournament, so this championship game is deserving by both teams.  Villanova is an elite team on both ends of the court as they average 1.17 points per possession on offense, and only allow 0.93 points per possession on defense.  Overall, Villanova averages 78 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land.  The Wildcats score 33.4% of their points from three-point land, and that matches-up extremely well against North Carolina’s defense that allows 33.1% of the points scored on them to come from beyond the arc.  Villanova’s defense held all five of their tournament opponents to 69 points or less while allowing an average of just 60.6 points per game.  Villanova held those five opponents to 42% (115-274) shooting from the field and 31.8% (34-107) shooting from three-point land.

North Carolina also cruised thru their tournament opponents; the Tar Heels won all five of their games by 14 points or more.  However, North Carolina faced the easier path to the championship game as their opponents only averaged an 81.8 on my power ratings.  To compare, Villanova’s opponents averaged an 86.6 on my power ratings.  So even though both teams were impressive, Villanova did it against the much stronger competition.  North Carolina’s offensive strength is their inside scoring as 61.5% of their points scored come from 2-point range.  That was a major match-up edge for the Tar Heels in their last game against Syracuse, but it will be a major disadvantage against Villanova tonight.  Only 49% of the points scored on the Wildcats’ defense come from 2-point range.  Villanova’s defensive weakness is allowing 33.3% of the points scored on them to come from 3-point range, but only 19.7% of North Carolina’s points come from beyond the arc.  We’ll take the points with Villanova in the title game on Monday night.

10* Play VILLANOVA (+).

Syracuse shocked everybody once again in this tournament when they beat #1 seed Virginia last Sunday night.  The Orange trailed by 14 points with 9 minutes to play before rallying for the upset win.  Syracuse beat a poor Dayton team in their tournament opener, and then they were the beneficiaries of the monumental upset loss by Michigan State to Middle Tennessee State.  Syracuse won those two games easily, and then they were on the receiving end of Gonzaga’s inexplicable collapse before another big comeback against Virginia.  So the Orange essentially had four wins handed to them, and here they are in the Final Four.  Now they will face North Carolina for the third time this season; the Orange are 0-2 against the Tar Heels.  Syracuse is heavily reliant on making three’s (36.5% of their points scored), and they only score 43.6% of their points from 2-point range.  Syracuse will need to hit a very high percentage from 3-point land just to be competitive in this game.  The Orange shot 29% (9-31) from three-point land in their home loss to the North Carolina, and just 25% (5-20) in their second loss in Chapel Hill.  A repeat of those performances tonight, and Syracuse will get run out of the gym.  

North Carolina has played tremendous basketball throughout the tournament.  The Tar Heels have won every game by 14 points or more while scoring 83 points or more in each game.  Syracuse’s only hope in this game is to slow it to crawl, but they couldn’t do that in the two earlier meetings this season when North Carolina scored 84 and 75 points.  North Carolina is an elite team on both ends of the court as they score 1.20 points per possession while only giving up 0.94 points per possession.  Overall, North Carolina averages 83 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field.  North Carolina’s defense is only allowing 69.9 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field.  The Tar Heels’ offensive strength is shooting from 2-point range (61.1% of their points), and inside scoring is how to beat Syracuse’s 2-3 zone.  We’ll lay the points with North Carolina in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

Boston comes into tonight’s game in Portland off an embarrassing 24-point (114-90) loss to the Clippers on Monday night.  That loss snapped Boston’s 4-game winning streak, but we expect the Celtics to bounce back strong in this game.  Boston has lost six games, including Monday, by more than 15 points this season.  The Celtics are 4-1 SU in games following such defeats with their average win coming by a whopping 13.5 points per game.  Boston’s last three losses have come against the Clippers, Raptors, and Thunder who are all upper echelon teams in the NBA.  The Celtics will face a lesser team tonight in Portland, and Boston is simply a better overall team.  Boston already crushed the Trail Blazers by 23 points (116-93) earlier this month.  The Celtics dominated inside the paint as they out-scored the Trail Blazers 60-34, and they also had 30 fast break points to just 11 fast break points for Portland.   

Portland is 4-2 SU over their last six games, so it appears they are playing good basketball right now.  However, the Trail Blazers’ four wins have come against the dregs of the league like the Kings, Sixers, Mavericks, and Pelicans.  Three of those wins came by 6 points or less, so Portland struggled with those bad teams.  Portland’s defense is not in good current form as they’ve allowed 105.8 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field over their last five games.  To compare, Boston’s defense has allowed just 98.6 points per game on 42.9% shooting from the field and 31.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Boston is in a terrific bounce back spot tonight, so we’ll take the Celtics plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CELTICS (+).

Golden State’s incredible season continues on as they come into tonight’s game in Utah with a 67-7 SU record.  However, this is a tough situational and scheduling spot for Golden State.  The Warriors played last night at home, and they beat the Wizards 102-94 after shooting 44% (11-25) from three-point land.  Golden State will now play on a back-to-back set, and they’ll be playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah without rest.  This will also be their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  Golden State is a team that needs to play ultra-fast to be at their best, but when unable to play up tempo basketball, the Warriors struggle mightily.  The Warriors are just 1-5 SU when held to less than 100 points this season with their lone win coming by just 6 points over Cleveland.  Tonight’s posted total is just 203, and that’s significant considering Golden State has played in eight straight games with a posted total of 220.5 or greater. 

Utah slogged thru a month of terrible basketball from February 10th thru March 9th.  The Jazz went 3-10 SU and just 2-11 ATS during that stretch of games.  But things have turned for the better for Utah as the Jazz have gone 8-2 SU and ATS over their last ten games.  Utah’s defense has been phenomenal recently; the Jazz have allowed just 88.2 points per game over their last ten games.  Going back a bit further, the Jazz have held twelve of their last fourteen opponents to 99 points or less.  Overall, Utah’s defense is allowing just 92.7 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 35.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Utah’s ability to slow the tempo will be a major factor in this game against the Warriors, so we’ll take the points with the Jazz in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

San Diego State was expected to regress this season.  The Aztecs started the season with two freshmen and a sophomore, and they had another freshman come off the bench.  San Diego State overachieved greatly this season, and the Aztecs were on the bubble for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.  San Diego State often has a had time winning games by margin because they play at such a slow pace.  That will be the case tonight against George Washington, a team that also plays at a slow tempo while focusing on half court offense and defense.  San Diego State has a history of struggling against similar teams, and tonight’s game falls squarely into that profile.  The Aztecs’ best offense comes from getting to the free throw line as 23.6% of their point scored come from the stripe.  However, George Washington doesn't foul much, and only 16.8% of the points scored on them come from the free throw line.  

George Washington was ready for a breakout season under head coach Mike Lonergan.  The Colonials had won 46 games over the last two seasons, and the team returned four starters this season.  The Colonials come into tonight’s game with 26 wins, including victories over Virginia, VCU, and Seton Hall.  George Washington has one of the biggest lineups in the country, and their ability to stifle opponents with their defense makes them competitive in every game.  The Colonials’ defense held opponents to just 43.3% shooting from the field and 33.7% shooting from three-point land this season.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with George Washington on Tuesday night.

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (+).

BYU comes into tonight’s game against Valparaiso with a respectable 26-10 record, but they’ve been fortunate in their last couple of games to reach Madison Square Garden.  BYU won their last two home games in this tournament by short margins; they only beat Virginia Tech by 3 points and Creighton by 6 points.  BYU usually dominates opponents that are not used to playing on their home court, so the close victory margins are certainly concerning.  BYU’s best player, Kyle Collinsworth, is just getting over the flu.  He lost 12 pounds, and it’s highly unlikely he’ll be at his best for tonight’s game.  “I didn’t pick up a basketball for three and a half days,” he said.  “Friday was when I got my appetite back and started eating again. It’ll have an effect on how I play on Tuesday.”  BYU has a terrific offense, but the Cougars have a terrible defense that allows 76.2 points per game away from home.  BYU gives up 1.00 points per possession, and they are at a serious defensive disadvantage in this game.

Valparaiso played terrific basketball this season, and the Crusaders were on the bubble for an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  Valparaiso comes into this game with an impressive 29-6 record on the season.  The Crusaders own an impressive +11.7 point differential, and they won all three of their NIT home games by double digits.  Valparaiso’s defense is holding their opponents to just 63.5 points per game on 38.9% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  BYU’s head coach Dave Rose said: “We’re at our best when the games are in the 80s or high 70s. Valparaiso is at their best when the game is in the high 50s and 60s.”  Valparaiso will be able to control the pace in this game, and that will put BYU out of their comfort zone.  We’ll lay the points with the Crusaders in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play VALPARAISO (-).

Syracuse is playing with house money right now as the Orange should have never been an at-large selection for this tournament.  Just because Syracuse won three games to reach the Elite 8 does not justify the committee’s decision to give the Orange a #10 seed over more deserving teams.  Syracuse beat an equally poor Dayton team, and then they were the beneficiaries of the monumental upset loss by Michigan State to Middle Tennessee State.  Syracuse won those two games easily, and then they were on the receiving end of Gonzaga’s inexplicable collapse on Friday night.  So the Orange essentially had three wins handed to them, but tonight they are taking a big step-up in class against a Virginia team that is superior on both ends of the court.  Syracuse is heavily reliant on making three’s (36.8% of their points scored), and they only score 43.6% of their points from 2-point range.  But only 48.9% of the points scored on Virginia’s defense come from inside the arc.  Syracuse will need to hit a very high percentage from 3-point land just to be competitive in this game. 

Virginia already beat Syracuse 73-65 back in January.  As noted above, Syracuse needs to shoot a high percentage from 3-point land to compete with Virginia.  The Orange shot 43.3% (13-30) from beyond the arc in that game and they still lost by 8 points.  Virginia held Syracuse to just 38.9% (21-54) shooting from the field while the Cavaliers shot 56.8% (25-44) from the field and 44.4% (8-18) from three-point land on Syracuse’s trademark 2-3 zone.  Those shooting percentages are an indication that Virginia has a clear understanding of how to attack the Syracuse defense.  Virginia’s offense scores 56.6% of their points from 2-point range, and that matches-up well against Syracuse’s defense as 50.6% of the points scored on the Orange come from inside the arc.  The Cavaliers’ have an excellent defense that is holding opponents to just 59.8 points per game on 42.2% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land.  Virginia is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Sunday night.                  

10* Play VIRGINIA (-).

Villanova comes into this game with a 32-5 record after steamrolling their three opponents in the NCAA tournament.  Villanova’s three wins have come by 30, 19, and 23 points.  The Wildcats have scored 265 points on 59.9% (97-162) shooting from the field and 53.2% (33-62) shooting from three-point land.  That hot shooting is next to impossible to maintain, especially against Kansas who allows just 0.92 points per possession.  Overall, the Jayhawks give up just 67.6 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.  Villanova is heavily reliant on making three’s (33.7% of their points scored), but only 27.2% of the points scored on Kansas’ defense come from beyond the arc.  That’s significant considering Villanova only scores 47.1% of their points from 2-point range while just 49.9% of the points scored on Kansas come from inside the arc.   

Kansas’ path to the Elite 8 has also been easy as the Jayhawks have won all three games by 12 points or more.  The Jayhawks have yet to play their best game, but there are reasons to expect it tonight, especially since Villanova is highly likely to regress in this game.  The Jayhawks own significant edges on both ends of the court based on efficiency metrics.  Kansas’ offense averages 1.19 points per possession compared to Villanova’s average of 1.17 points per possession.  Kansas scores 50.8% of their points from 2-point range, so they are not reliant on making three’s like Villanova.  The Jayhawks also own the better defense as Villanova is allowing 0.93 points per possession.  Kansas is the better team, and since Villanova is set to regress sharply, we’ll back the Jayhawks in this game on Saturday night.   

10* Play KANSAS (-).

Utah slogged thru a month of terrible basketball from February 10th thru March 9th.  The Jazz went 3-10 SU and just 2-11 ATS during that stretch of games.  But things have turned for the better for Utah as the Jazz have gone 6-2 SU and ATS over their last six games.  Utah’s last game was a 113-91 blowout loss at Oklahoma City, but that result can be easily dismissed as the Jazz were on a back-to-back set after winning in a comeback the night before in Houston.  Utah’s defense has been phenomenal recently; the Jazz have allowed just 90.4 points per game over their last eight games.  Going back a bit further, the Jazz have held ten of their last twelve opponents to 99 points or less.  Overall, Utah’s defense is allowing just 96.6 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land this season.  Utah’s stout defensive play will continue tonight in Minnesota, and their ability to slow the tempo will be a major factor in this game against the Timberwolves.

Minnesota played an energy-draining game last night in Washington.  The Timberwolves won 132-129 in double overtime.  Minnesota had four starters play 43 minutes or more, and all five starters played 39 minutes or more overall.  Minnesota’s entire second unit played 13 minutes or more as well.  The game was played at an extremely fast pace as the teams combined to take 196 shots, including 54 three-point attempts.  Minnesota also shot 53.1% (51-96) from the field with six players scoring in double digits.  The Timberwolves will now play on a back-to-back set, and this will also be their fourth game in six nights.  Minnesota is a team that needs to play ultra-fast to be at their best, but when unable to play up tempo basketball, the Timberwolves struggle mightily.  The Timberwolves are just 5-24 SU when held to less than 100 points this season; their average loss has come by 12 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with the Jazz in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play JAZZ (-).

Notre Dame needed to rally from behind to win their first two tournament games.  The Irish trailed Michigan by 12 points at the half before winning 70-63.  Notre Dame trailed Stephen F. Austin by 5 points with two minutes to play before winning 76-75 on a last-second tip-in.  Notre Dame is barely surviving, and tonight’s game against Wisconsin presents the Irish with a terrible match-up.  Notre Dame doesn’t play at a fast tempo, but the Irish are certainly a much better offensive team when they can get out and run while getting easy baskets in transition.  When the Irish are forced into half-court basketball, their offense struggles mightily.  Notre Dame is just 2-7 SU this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by 14.1 points per game.  The posted total of 131 on tonight’s game is a clear indication that the oddsmakers expect a slow pace, especially considering this is the lowest posted total on a Notre Dame game this season.

Wisconsin also survived their two tournaments games, but the Badgers faced much tougher opponents in Pittsburgh and Xavier.  Wisconsin’s style of play is conducive to tournament success, and that was evident last year when they made the Final Four.  The Badgers play at an extremely slow pace while playing exception team defense.  Wisconsin has held 28 of their 34 opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season.  Overall, the Badgers are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field.  Wisconsin also has an efficient offense that averages 1.10 points per possession.  My power ratings made this game a pick, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Friday night.          

9* Play WISCONSIN (+).

Iowa State is a team that needs to play at an ultra-fast tempo in order to be at their best.  The Cyclones like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Iowa State’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Cyclones will not get their preferred style of play against a Virginia team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Iowa State has been held to less than 70 points four times this season, but those games were against inferior teams like Colorado and Oklahoma State twice.  Texas A&M also held Iowa State to just 62 points and the Cyclones lost that game by 10 points.  Iowa State did go 3-1 SU when held to less than 70 points, but their wins came by just 8, 6, and 5 points against much weaker teams.  Iowa State scores 55.5% of their points from 2-point range, but only 48.7% of the points scored on Virginia’s defense come from inside the arc. 

Virginia plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with an excellent defense that is holding opponents to just 59.5 points per game on 41.9% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Cyclones are clueless when they are forced to play half-court basketball, and Virginia’s style will simply frustrate Iowa State.  The Cavaliers’ offense scores 56.3% of their points from 2-point range, and that matches-up extremely well against Iowa State’s defense as 54.3% of the points scored on the Cyclones come from inside the arc.  The Cyclones will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace.  We’ll lay the points with Virginia in this game on Friday night.                  

10* Play VIRGINIA (-).

Oregon has won their first two tournament games, but the Ducks are still the worst #1 seed in recent memory.  Based on my power ratings, the Ducks should have been a #3 seed, but they parlayed an impressive Pac 12 conference tournament win into a #1 seed.  Oregon played three perfect games in that tournament, and they topped it off with a 31-point win over Utah in the final.  And the Ducks continued their hot run with another blowout win over Holy Cross in their first NCAA tournament game.  Oregon then got taken to the brink by St. Joseph’s, and they could have easily lost that game.  Now the Ducks are taking a huge step-up in class against Duke tonight, and we expect their good fortunes to run out.  Oregon’s defensive weakness is defending the three as 30.3% of the points scored on the Ducks come from beyond the arc.  That plays right into Duke’s offensive strength as the Blue Devils score 33.8% of their points from three-point land.

Duke is not the same team that won the national title last season.  The Blue Devils are shorthanded, and they play a limited 6-man rotation because of it.  But tonight’s game against Oregon is actually a really good match-up for the Blue Devils.  Duke owns a potent offense that is averaging 81.5 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Duke averages an impressive 1.19 points per possession, so they will have success scoring on a below average Oregon defense that is allowing 0.97 points per possession this season.  Oregon is way overvalued, and my power ratings make the Ducks just 2-point favorites in this game, so we’ll take Duke plus the points in this game on Thursday night.  

9* Play DUKE (+).

Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 27-8 record this season, and their #5 seed in the tournament.  However, the Terrapins are a vulnerable team, especially away from home.  Maryland won 16 of their games on their home court, and they were just 4-6 in true road games.  That’s a clear indication that they are not a dominating team; they own a negative point differential on the road this season.  Maryland’s offense has struggled mightily away from home this season as they are only averaging 68.8 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Terrapins are heavily reliant on making three’s (30.1% of their points scored), but only 27.3% of the points scored on Kansas’ defense come from beyond the arc.  That’s significant considering Maryland only scores 49.4% of their points from 2-point range while just 49.8% of the points scored on Kansas come from inside the arc.   

Kansas’ path to the Sweet 16 has been easy as the Jayhawks faced a pair of low-rated teams.  The team hasn’t had to play their best yet, but there are reasons to expect Kansas to bring their ‘A’ game tonight.  The Jayhawks own significant edges on both ends of the court based on efficiency metrics.  Kansas’ offense averages 1.19 points per possession compared to Maryland’s average of 1.14 points per possession.  Kansas scores 50.4% of their points from 2-point range, and that matches-up well against a Maryland defense that allows 52.2% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  The Jayhwaks’ defense only allows 0.92 points per possession compared to the 0.96 points per possession allowed by the Terrapins’ defense.  Kansas is the superior team, and since my power ratings make the Jayhawks 7-point favorites, we’ll lay the points in this game on Thursday night.   

10* Play KANSAS (-).

Miami, FL has had an excellent season as the Hurricanes come into this game with a 27-7 record.  Miami had an easy draw in their first game against Buffalo, but then they got a brutal match-up against Wichita State in the second round.  The Hurricanes handled that assignment quite impressively, and we expect their terrific tournament play to continue tonight against Villanova.  The Hurricanes are a veteran group that made it all the way to the NIT finals last season; they lost the championship by 2 points in overtime.  That experience prepared Miami for a deep run in this year’s NCAA tournament, and there’s no reason their run won’t continue onto Saturday.  The Hurricanes own a significant coaching edge in this game with Jim Larranaga over Villanova’s Jay Wright, and that will be even more pronounced with four full days to prepare for tonight’s game.  Miami has an excellent 3-point defense as they only allow 26.5% of the points scored on them to come from beyond the arc.  Villanova’s offense is predicated on hitting three’s as 33.8% of their points scored come from beyond the arc.  That is a significant match-up edge that favors Miami greatly in this game.

Villanova comes into this game with a 31-5 record.  However, the Wildcats have been a stagnant bunch over the last few years as they always produce impressive win/loss records, but fail to parlay them into tournament success.  Over the last three years, Villanova has been knocked out in either their first or second tournament game.  After winning their first two tournaments games this season, the Wildcats are now in foreign territory.  Villanova got two cupcake draws in their first two games, and they won both games in blowout fashion.  The Wildcats scored 173 points on 58.6% (65-111) shooting from the field and 48.9% (23-47) shooting from three-point land.  That hot shooting will not continue tonight against a solid Miami defense that is only giving 66.7 points per game on 42.6% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with the Hurricanes on Thursday night.          

9* Play MIAMI, FL (+).

Utah slogged thru a month of terrible basketball from February 10th thru March 9th.  The Jazz went 3-10 SU and just 2-11 ATS during that stretch of games.  But things have turned for the better for Utah as the Jazz have gone 5-1 SU and ATS over their last six games.  Utah’s defense has been phenomenal recently; the Jazz allowed just 87.2 points per game over their last six games.  Going back a bit further, the Jazz have held nine of their last ten opponents to 99 points or less.  Overall, Utah’s defense is allowing just 96.5 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land this season.  Utah’s stout defensive play will continue tonight in Houston, and their ability to slow the tempo will be a major factor in this game against the Rockets.

Houston played an energy-draining game last night in Oklahoma City.  The Rockets ultimately came up short in a 111-107 loss to the Thunder.  Houston had two starters play more than 40 minutes, and four guys played 33 minutes or more overall.  The game was played at an extremely fast pace as the teams combined to take 183 shots, including 72 three-point attempts.  Houston will now play on a back-to-back set, and this will also be their fourth game in six nights.  Houston is a team that needs to play ultra-fast to be at their best, but when unable to play up tempo basketball, the Rockets struggle mightily.  The Rockets have been held to less than 100 points 17 times this season.  Houston is just 2-15 SU in those games with their two wins coming by just 4 points over the Spurs and by 2 points over the Jazz.  Houston is in a poor scheduling spot for this game, and since Utah is also a bad matchup for them, we’ll take the points with the Jazz in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

St. Mary’s had a fantastic season, and there was disbelief by many that the Gaels did not receive an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  St. Mary’s comes into tonight’s game at Valparaiso with an impressive 29-5 record, but they’ve certainly had some favorable things in their corner to reach that record.  Twenty of St. Mary’s twenty-nine wins have come on their home court.  St. Mary’s has yet to cross the Rocky Mountains this season, so they’ve had little travel involved as well.  The Gaels have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition; they have the 156th rated schedule this season.  St. Mary’s best wins came over Gonzaga twice, and while those wins look good now with the Zags in the Sweet 16, keep in mind Gonzaga was given an #11 seed in the tournament despite beating St. Mary’s in the conference championship game.  St. Mary’s has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.

Valparaiso also played terrific basketball this season, and the Crusaders were also on the bubble of an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  Valparaiso has the benefit of playing this game on their home court where they are 16-1 SU this season.  The Crusaders own an impressive +15.5 point differential at home, and they’ve won both NIT home games by double digits.  Valparaiso’s defense is holding their opponents to just 62 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  St. Mary’s offense is only averaging 68.5 points per game on the road this season.  “Only by winning this whole thing we can erase the sting we have of not making the tournament,” senior Keith Carter said.  “We’re a close knit group and we’re hungry to keep winning games.”  We’ll lay the points with the Crusaders in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play VALPARAISO (-).

Washington comes into tonight’s game in Atlanta on a nice 4-game winning streak.  The Wizards have played terrific basketball in those four games, especially on the defensive end of the court.  Washington has held their last four opponents to 96 points or less while allowing just 90 points per game.  The Wizards held those four teams to just 39.6% (134-338) shooting from the field and 25.8% (25-97) shooting from three-point land.  Washington’s stout defensive play will continue tonight because of a trade they made at the deadline.  The Wizards acquired Markieff Morris from the Suns, and his defense on Paul Millsap will be the key difference in tonight’s game.  Washington was routinely torched by Millsap because the Wizards had nobody to guard him.  With Morris, Washington now has a nice edge on both ends of the court.  “It’s going to be a good match up, him going against Millsap,” John Wall said.  “In the past we’d have to double-team certain people. Now we got somebody that can guard them guys one-on-one without help and be able to go back and those guys at the other end.”

Atlanta is also in good current form; the Hawks are on a 5-game winning streak.  But those wins have come against some bad teams like the Grizzlies, Nuggets, and Rockets.  The Hawks also won two games by 4 points or less, so it’s not like they’ve been dominating their opponents.  Atlanta has played nowhere near their level of last season, and they’ve basically beat-up on the bad teams this season.  The Hawks have been mediocre at best against teams on their level, and they’ve been poor against the upper echelon teams.  Tonight’s game against Washington pits the Hawks against a team on their level, and the Wizards are much better suited to beat Atlanta now that they have Morris to defend Millsap.  “I think that will help us out a lot,” Bradley Beal said of Morris.  “Somebody who can move and who’s pretty much the same size who can guard multiple positions.”  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Washington plus the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play WIZARDS (+).

Oregon crushed an undermanned Holy Cross team by 39 points on Friday night.  That dominating win over an inferior team did nothing to change the fact that Oregon is the worst #1 seed in recent memory.  Based on my power ratings, the Ducks should be a #3 seed, but they parlayed an impressive Pac 12 conference tournament win into a #1 seed.  Oregon played three perfect games in that tournament, and they topped it off with a 31-point win over Utah in the final.  And the Ducks continued their hot run with another blowout win in the NCAA tournament.  Oregon’s offense scores the majority of their points from 2-point range.  In fact, the Ducks score 52% of their points inside the arc, but only 50.8% of the points scored on St. Joseph’s defense come from 2-point range.  Oregon is simply taking a big step-up in class here, and they are facing a team that plays a physical brand of basketball.

St. Joseph’s plays to the personality of their head coach Phil Martelli.  The Hawks are a tough, scrappy team that lays everything on the court.  St. Joe’s is 28-7 on the season, and Martelli is brilliant in scheming defenses against high-octane offenses.  The Hawks own a potent offense themselves as they are averaging 77.6 points per game.  St. Joe’s averages an impressive 1.13 points per possession, so they will have success scoring on a below average Oregon defense that is allowing 0.97 points per possession this season.  Oregon is way overvalued, so we’ll take St. Joseph’s plus the points in this game on Sunday night.  

9* Play ST. JOSEPH’S (+).

Xavier cruised to an 18-point win over Weber State on Friday night.  The Musketeers played a perfect game as they shot 48.8% from the field, 50% from three-point land, and 100% from the free throw line.  Xavier was able to control tempo in that game as their superior talent forced Weber State into a fast-paced game.  But Xavier is unlikely to do the same tonight against Wisconsin, and that will be a major factor in this game.  The Musketeers need to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  Xavier’s games have averaged 72.9 possession per game this season which was the third highest of all the teams in the tournament this season.  Xavier was held to less than 70 points just four times this season, and they went 2-2 SU in those games.  The posted total of 137 on tonight’s game is a clear indication that the oddsmakers expect a slow pace, especially considering Xavier had an average posted game total of 148.8 this season. 

Wisconsin survived a tough match-up against Pittsburgh on Friday night.  The Badgers won that defensive scrum 47-43 as they played a Pittsburgh team that is a mirror image of themselves.  Wisconsin’s style of play is conducive to tournament success, and that was evident last year when they made the Final Four.  The Badgers play at an extremely slow pace while playing exception team defense.  Wisconsin has held 27 of their 33 opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season.  Overall, the Badgers are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field.  Wisconsin also has an efficient offense that averages 1.10 points per possession.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Sunday night.          

9* Play WISCONSIN (+).

Hawaii comes into this game off an impressive win over California on Friday afternoon.  The Warriors are 28-5 on the season, and four of their five losses have come by 8 points or less.  Hawaii plays excellent team basketball, and they use a solid 8-man rotation with only 2 guys averaging more than 30 minutes per game.  Their tremendous depth is highly beneficial for tournament play, and the team is likely to maintain their current level of play.  Hawaii owns an efficient offense that is averaging 77.1 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field.  The Warriors are also very aggressive as 23.3% of their points scored come from the free throw line.  Hawaii’s calling card is outstanding defense; they give up just 66.3 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.

Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 26-8 record this season, and their #5 seed in the tournament.  However, the Terrapins are a vulnerable team, especially away from home.  Maryland won 16 of their games on their home court, and they were just 4-6 in true road games.  That’s a clear indication that they are not a dominating team; they own a -2.1 point differential on the road this season.  Maryland’s offense has struggled mightily away from home this season as they are only averaging 68.8 points per game in those games.  The Terrapins are heavily reliant on making three’s (30.9% of their points scored), but only 26.4% of the points scored on Hawaii’s defense come from beyond the arc.  My power ratings make Maryland just a 6-point favorite, so there’s good value on Hawaii in this game.  We’ll take the Warriors plus the points in this game on Sunday night.    

10* Play HAWAII (+).

Arkansas-Little Rock made a big comeback and survived two overtimes to beat Purdue 85-83 on Thursday.  Off such a grueling performance, there is obvious concern about fatigue and regression.  However, the way Arkansas-Little Rock plays negates some of those concerns.  The Trojans are a fundamentally sound and experienced team that will not get trapped into Iowa State’s style.  Arkansas State is 15-2 SU over their last seventeen games, so this is a team that simply knows how to win.  Overall, Arkansas-Little Rock is 30-4 on the season, including 16-4 in games away from home.  The Trojans play at a slow, methodical pace while running good offense that hits a lot of high percentage shots.  Arkansas-Little Rock averages 70.5 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 38.5% from three-point land.  Arkansas-Little Rock’s defense has been exceptional in neutral court games this season as they are only giving up 61 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  

Iowa State is a team that needs to play at an ultra-fast tempo in order to be at their best.  The Cyclones like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Iowa State’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Cyclones will not get their preferred style of play against an Arkansas-Little Rock team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Iowa State has been held to less than 70 points four times this season, but those games were against inferior teams like Colorado and Oklahoma State twice.  Texas A&M also held Iowa State to just 62 points and the Cyclones lost that game by 10 points.  Iowa State did go 3-1 SU when held to less than 70 points, but their wins came by just 8, 6, and 5 points against much weaker teams.  The Cyclones will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace.  We’ll take the points with Arkansas-Little Rock in this game on Saturday night.                  

10* Play ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (+).

Yale has played exceptional basketball this season.  The Bulldogs come into this game with a 23-6 record after opening the season at just 5-5.  That means Yale is 18-1 over their last 19 games, and to their credit, ten of those games were on the road.  The Bulldogs are extremely well coached, and they play a perfect half-court style of basketball that is conducive to NCAA tournament success.  Yale controlled Baylor from start to finish on Thursday, and we expect a similar performance this afternoon against Duke.  Yale has held 19 of their last 23 opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time.  Overall, the Bulldogs are only allowing 63.9 points per game on 40.9% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense is tremendous by efficiency metrics as they only give up 0.95 points per possession.  Yale also has a terrific offense that averages 74.6 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 36.9% shooting from three-point land.  

Duke beat NC-Wilmington 93-85 on Thursday afternoon.  The Blue Devils shot 53.7% (29-54) from the field, and they got to the free throw line a whopping 43 times.  Despite that, they could only beat an inferior team by 8 points.  That’s not impressive at all, and it shows that Duke is a vulnerable team.  The Blue Devils have limited depth, and they rarely play more than six guys on a consistent basis.  Duke always struggles when forced into half-court basketball, and that will be the case this afternoon.  The Blue Devils went just 1-6 SU when held to less than 70 points this season; they are 0-7 ATS when held to less than 70 points based on the posted spread as their lone win came by a single point.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Yale on Saturday afternoon.           

9* Play YALE (+).