St. Joseph’s is a decent team that comes into tonight’s game against Cincinnati with a 27-7 record on the season.  However, that record was built upon a very weak schedule that ranks 84th in the country.  To compare, the three other #8 seeds in the tournament played much tougher schedules that ranked #13, #50, and #52 in the country.  St. Joseph’s is a phony #8 seed, and in fact, they would underdogs to every #9 seed based on my power ratings.  The Hawks’ offense is heavily reliant on scoring easy baskets inside the paint as 52.2% of their points come from 2-point range.  St. Joseph’s will have a difficult time scoring consistently in this game against the stout Cincinnati defense that only allows 48.8% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  Overall, the Bearcats’ defense has an effective field goal percentage of 45.3% which ranks them #21 in the country.

Cincinnati is a tough team that comes into this game with a solid 22-10 record.  The Bearcats have three losses in overtime this season, and three other losses by exactly 2 points each.  So Cincinnati could have a much better record, and if those close losses went their way, they’d be 28-4 on the season.  The Bearcats are significantly better than their win/loss record indicates, and that provides a lot of value on them in this game, especially since St. Joseph’s is overvalued as mentioned above.  Cincinnati has a terrific defense that is holding their opponents to just 62.9 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 35.1% shooting from three-point land.  These two teams are much further apart than the seeds indicate, so we’ll lay the points with the Bearcats in this game on Friday night.      

10* Play CINCINNATI (-).

Holy Cross is fortunate to be in the NCAA tournament after going just 14-19 overall this season.  However, the Crusaders come into tonight’s game against Oregon playing their best basketball of the season.  Holy Cross is on a 5-game winning streak, including Wednesday night’s 59-55 win over Southern.  While there is some concern of long travel on short rest, that concern is mitigated by the style of basketball Holy Cross plays.  The Crusaders play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and in fact, they play at the slowest pace of any team in the NCAA tournament.  Their games only average 64.3 possessions per game, and the makes it extremely difficult for teams to beat them by big margins.  Holy Cross has relied on their defense, and they’ve allowed 67 points or less in regulation time in their last five games.  Overall, the Crusaders allow 69.2 points per game on the season. 

Oregon is the worst #1 seed in recent memory.  Based on my power ratings, the Ducks should be a #3 seed, but they parlayed an impressive Pac 12 conference tournament win into a #1 seed.  Oregon played three perfect games in that tournament, and they topped it off with a 31-point win over Utah in the final.  However, teams that play that well in conference tournaments often struggle mightily in their first NCAA tournament game, especially when they are big favorites.  Oregon’s offense scores the majority of their points from 2-point range.  In fact, the Ducks score 51.7% of their points inside the arc, but only 47.4% of the points scored on Holy Cross’ defense come from 2-point range.  This is also the lowest posted total (133.5) on an Oregon game this season, and that is a clear indication that this game will be played at a slow pace which benefits Holy Cross.  Even though Oregon lays over Holy Cross talent wise, this is a bad matchup for the Ducks, so we’ll take the big points with the Crusaders in this game on Friday night.   

9* Play HOLY CROSS (+).

Temple is not a tournament quality team.  The Owls went 20-11 on the season, and they are way over-seeded on the #10 line.  Based on my power ratings, Temple is more like a #12 or #13 seed.  The Owls are my lowest rated team on the #10 line, and in fact, they would be at least 4-point underdogs to the three other teams in the #10 pod, and that includes a terrible Syracuse team.  Temple’s offense is terrible, and I don’t expect them to have much success in this game.  Overall, the Owls are only averaging 68.7 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 34% shooting from three-point land.  Temple’s offense was even worse away from home where they only averaged 64.8 points per game.  The Owls own an effective field goal percentage of just 46.9% which ranks them #292 in the country.    

Iowa was a terrific team early on this season, but the Hawkeyes completely imploded down the stretch.  Iowa went just 2-6 SU over their final eight games of the season, and because of that, the Hawkeyes got a #7 seed.  However, this veteran team is ultra-talented, and based on my power ratings, they are more of a #3 or #4 seed.  Iowa is flying well under the radar, and if they can return to their early season form, the Hawkeyes are an extremely dangerous team.  Iowa has has an efficient offense that is averaging 1.14 points per possession.  Overall, the Hawkeyes average 78.1 points per game on 45% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa is simply the much better team, and since my power ratings make them an 8-point favorite, we’ll lay the points with the Hawkeyes in this game on Friday afternoon.           

9* Play IOWA (-).

Oregon State and VCU are virtually identical in all statistical categories.  The two teams have almost identical efficiency ratings on offense and defense, and my power ratings only make VCU 3.5-point favorites over Oregon State.  The lone difference between these two teams is in their style of play.  The Beavers like to play a slow, half-court style while VCU loves to play ‘havoc ball’ where they use full-court pressure the entire game.  That style is extremely difficult for most teams to handle, but Oregon State plays a smart brand of basketball that will eliminate VCU’s strongest advantage.  Overall, the Beavers’ offense gets 51.3% of their points from 2-point range.  That matches-up well against VCU’s defense that allows 55.2% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  That’s one of the worst percentages of any team in the tournament, so Oregon State’s offense holds a significant match-up advantage in this game.      

VCU is no stranger to tournament success, but that was under head coach Shaka Smart.  He left for Texas after last season, so the Rams will be led by first year coach Will Wade.  While he was an assistant under Smart and part of the staff of recent tournament teams, coaches tend to struggle in their first Big Dance.  VCU overachieved this season, and their true colors began to show as the season went on.  The Rams went just 4-3 SU over their last seven games, and that included an ugly loss to George Mason, and losses to questionable tournament teams like Dayton and St. Joseph’s.  VCU’s offensive profile relies heavily on making easy baskets in transition, but that’s going to be difficult in this game.  VCU scores 53.8% of their points from 2-point range, but Oregon State’s defense only allows 48% of the points scored on them to come from inside the arc.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Oregon State on Friday afternoon.  

9* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Wichita State got the shaft from the tournament committee; the Shockers are significantly better than a #11 seed.  My power ratings say Wichita State is more like a #4 or #5 seed as they rate even or higher than five of the eight teams slated on those lines.  My power ratings make this game a Pick, so there’s a bit of value on the Shockers.  Wichita State is an excellent team that is well-suited to succeed in tournament basketball because they have an efficient offense and the best defense of any team in the entire tournament.  That defense was on display on Tuesday night when they held a terrific Vanderbilt offense to just 2 points over the final eight minutes of the game.  The Shockers hold opponents to just 0.90 points per possession.  Wichita State allows just 59.1 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field and 32.2% shooting from three-point land. 

Arizona was a much better team early on this season.  The Wildcats lost starting center Kaleb Tarcezewski and guard Allonzo Trier for a period of time, and the team began to struggle.  But since those guys came back, the team hasn’t been able to get back to their early season form.  The Wildcats closed the season on a 3-3 SU slide as their offense couldn’t get anything going.  Arizona’s offense will continue their struggles tonight against the best defense in the country, especially since the Wildcats score the majority of their points from 2-point range.  In fact, Arizona scores 53.1% of their points inside the arc, but only 43.4% of the points scored on Wichita State’s defense come from 2-point range.  This is a terrible matchup for Arizona, so we’ll back Wichita State in this game on Thursday night.   

9* Play WICHITA STATE (+).

Purdue is a team that needs to play at a quick tempo in order to be at their best.  The Boilermakers like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Purdue’s offense struggles in the half court.  The Boilermakers will not get their preferred style of play against an Arkansas-Little Rock team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Purdue has been held to less than 70 points nine times this season.  The Boilermakers are just 4-5 SU in those games and 2-7 ATS based on today’s posted line.  Purdue has been held to less than 70 points in seven road games.  They are just 3-4 SU and an ugly 1-6 ATS in those games.  The Boilermakers will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace.       

Arkansas-Little Rock is a fundamentally sound and experienced team that will not get trapped into Purdue’s style.  The Trojans are 14-2 SU over their last sixteen games, so this is a team that simply knows how to win.  Overall, Arkansas-Little Rock is 29-4 on the season, including 15-4 in games away from home.  The Trojans play at a slow, methodical pace while running good offense that hits a lot of high percentage shots.  Arkansas-Little Rock averages 70 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 38.7% from three-point land.  Arkansas-Little Rock’s defense has been exceptional in neutral court games this season as they are only giving up 53.7 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 30.4% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue hasn’t fared well in slow-paced games this season, so we’ll take the points with Arkansas-Little Rock in this game on Thursday afternoon.                     

9* Play ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (+).

Yale played exceptional basketball this season.  The Bulldogs come into this game with a 22-6 record after opening the season at just 5-5.  That means Yale is 17-1 over their last 18 games, and to their credit, nine of those games were on the road.  The Bulldogs are extremely well coached, and they play a perfect half-court style of basketball that is conducive to NCAA tournament success.  Yale has held 19 of their last 22 opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time.  Overall, the Bulldogs are only allowing 63.5 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense is tremendous by efficiency metrics as they only give up 95.0 points per 100 possessions.  Yale also has a terrific offense that averages 74.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  

Baylor was more of an up-tempo offense in years past, but the Bears have slowed way down over the last two years.  But despite their slower style of play, Baylor still struggles mightily in the half court.  The Bears went just 3-7 SU when held to less than 70 points this season, and they are 0-10 ATS when held to less than 70 points based on the posted spread.  Baylor’s three wins came by 2, 3, and 4 points which clearly indicates that the Bears cannot extend leads when playing an opponent that forces them into a half court game.  Baylor went just 7-6 on the road this season, and the Bears own a -1.5 point differential away from home.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Yale on Thursday afternoon.           

10* Play YALE (+).

Texas Tech and Butler are virtually mirror images of each other.  The two teams have identical efficiency ratings on offense and defense, and my power ratings only make Butler 1.5-point favorites over Texas Tech.  The oddsmakers opened this game at Butler -2.5, but the market thought that was low, so the current line is 2 points higher.  I agree with the opening line more than the betting markets on this game, and now we have a lot of value on the Red Raiders.  Texas Tech comes into this game with a 19-12 record, but half of their losses came by single digits.  The Red Raiders like to play at a slow pace while forcing teams into a half-court scrum.  Texas Tech plays solid defense as they hold their opponents to 69.8 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Red Raiders only allow 48.1% of the points scored on them to come from 2-point range.  Butler’s offense scores 51.9% of their points from inside the arc, so they’ll have to crack Texas Tech’s defensive strength to have success in this game.         

Butler played a much different style of basketball this season.  The Bulldogs played at an extremely slow tempo in years past, but they sped way up this season.  Butler is averaging 68.9 possessions per game, and because of the faster tempo, the Bulldogs’ defense has slipped.  They are allowing 101.8 points per 100 possessions; that’s a far cry from the low 90’s they routinely put-up over the last few years.  Butler owns a minuscule +0.3 point differential away from home, and they went just 8-7 SU on the road.  Butler only won 3 away games by more than 6 points this season, so they’ve had a difficult time getting separation on the road.  Texas Tech hits 74.6% from the free throw line, and that strength keeps them in games against teams that are perceived to be better than they are.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Texas Tech on Thursday afternoon.  

9* Play TEXAS TECH (+).

Oklahoma City is just 5-8 SU over their last 13 games, so they are not playing their best basketball right now.  However, the Thunder come into tonight’s game in Boston off one of their best performances of the season, and we expect some regression off that sharp reversal of form.  Oklahoma City beat Portland by 34 points (128-94) at home on Monday night; it was one of their best offensive games of the season.  The Thunder dominated that game from start to finish as they shot 59% (49-83) from the field, 52.9% (9-17) from three-point land, and 80.8% (21-26) from the free throw line.  The Thunder got a complete team effort as seven players scored in double figures while eleven players scored in the game.  Oklahoma City put a lot of focus into that game after losing back-to-back games to the Timberwolves and Spurs.

Boston returns home off a 103-98 loss in Indiana last night.  The Celtics are 7-4 SU over their last eleven games with three of their four losses coming by 5 points or less.  Boston is in a scheduling and situational spot tonight in which they’ve had a lot of success with this season.  When playing at home off a road loss, the Celtics are 7-1 SU this season with their lone loss coming by 8 points.  They actually led that game going into the fourth quarter before getting out-scored by 10 points.  Boston also lost their previous home game, so we expect a big effort tonight.  Overall, the Celtics are 23-11 at home this season where they own a solid +6.1 point differential.  Boston is in a terrific spot tonight, so we’ll take the Celtics plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play CELTICS (+).

Vanderbilt and Wichita State should not be playing tonight as both teams deserved much better from the NCAA selection committee.  The Commodores and Shockers are both quality teams that should have been seeded higher, and the fact they are playing each other is of no coincidence.  Vanderbilt and Wichita State are more than capable of beating the big name teams with high seeds, so it’s a shame one of these teams has to lose tonight.  Vanderbilt only had a 19-13 record on the season, but there’s no shame in that after playing my 44th ranked schedule in the country.  The Commodores crushed #3 seed Texas A&M by 17 points, and they beat #4 seed Kentucky by 12 points.  Vanderbilt only lost to the #1 overall seed Kansas by 7 points on a neutral court as well.  The Commodores can play basketball, and they are severely undervalued tonight as my power ratings only make them a 1-point underdog to Wichita State.

Wichita State is also a very good basketball team.  The Shockers come into tonight’s game with a 24-8 record, and they played a bunch of games early without one of their best players, Fred VanVleet.  Wichita State was overvalued by the oddsmakers down the stretch after posting a 12-game winning streak.  The Shockers went 7-3 SU, but just 5-5 ATS over their last ten games, and they come into tonight on a 3-game ATS slide.  As mentioned above, Wichita State is once again laying too many points in this game, especially against a Vanderbilt team that played a much tougher schedule.  The Shockers played my 104th rated schedule; the worst of any team seeded below the 12 line.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Vanderbilt plus the points on Tuesday night.

9* Play VANDERBILT (+).

Florida failed to make the NCAA tournament for a second consecutive year after going 19-14 this season.  The Gators’ best player, Dorian Finney-Smith, is a senior, so failing to make the Big Dance is a major disappointment for him, and that filters down to the rest of the team.  Florida is actually the #2 seed in the NIT, but because of renovations to their arena, they are forced to play this game on North Florida’s home court.  That is another disadvantage for the Gators in this game.  Florida may also play without starting center John Egbunu; he has a torn ligament in his right thumb and surgery appears imminent.  Florida head coach Mike White is also not sure about his team’s state of mind heading into this game: “The NIT is not the ultimate goal. We’re trying to improve a little bit for down the road. That’s the approach I hope our guys would take.”

North Florida went 22-11 this season, including an excellent 14-2 on their home court.  This is a rare opportunity for the Osprey to host a big name team on their home court.  And since the Gators are also an in-state opponent considered to be a ‘big brother’ to North Florida, the excitement of this game is over the top for the Osprey.  North Florida has a terrific offense that is averaging 87.5 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 40.3% from three-point land.  Their three-point shooting is of major concern for Florida head coach White: “It’s going to be a very difficult matchup for our bigs to have to defend in a way that they’ve rarely, rarely defended this season.”  North Florida has a lot of motivation for this game, and Florida does not, so we’ll take the Osprey plus the points in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play NORTH FLORIDA (+).

Cleveland will complete their 4-game West Coast road trip tonight in Utah.  The Cavaliers have gone 3-0 SU and ATS so far with wins over the Kings, Lakers, and Clippers.  Cleveland played yesterday afternoon in Los Angeles against the Clippers, and the Cavaliers dominated that game from start to finish.  Cleveland won by 24 points (114-90) after shooting 48.8% (41-84) from the field and 48.6% (18-37) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers got a complete team effort as six players scored in double figures while ten players scored in the game.  Cleveland put all of their focus into that spotlight national TV game against the Clippers, and after such an efficient performance, we expect regression tonight, especially since the Cavaliers have to play without rest in the thin air and altitude of Utah.

Utah returns home off an easy 108-99 win in Sacramento last night.  The Jazz never trailed in that game, and they led by as many as 25 points, so the 9-point winning margin is misleading.  Utah is in good current form as they are 3-2 SU over their last five games with one of their losses coming in San Antonio against the Spurs.  Utah has played six of their last eight games on the road; this will be just their third home game since February 29th.  The Jazz are 20-13 at home this season where they own a solid +4.3 point differential.  Utah has played outstanding defense on their home court all season; they are allowing just 94.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land.  Gordon Hayward is not expected to play tonight for the Jazz, but teams often step up their play in the first game without a leading scorer, plus the opponent often overlooks the team.  This is likely tonight since Cleveland is in such a poor scheduling and situational spot.  Utah is catching Cleveland at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Jazz plus the points in this home game on Monday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

Memphis and Connecticut will play for the third time this season.  The Huskies won the first two games; they beat Memphis 81-78 at home and they won by 20 points (77-57) in Memphis.  However, today’s game is much more meaningful, especially for Memphis.  The Tigers’ only hope to get into the NCAA tournament is by winning this game.  In their first two games of the conference tournament, Memphis has played exceptional basketball.  The Tigers have held their two opponents to just 67 and 54 points on a combined 37.7% (40-106) shooting from the field and 24.3% (9-37) shooting from three-point land.  Memphis’ offense scored 89 and 74 points in those games while being very aggressive; they totaled 52 free throw attempts in their two games.  Memphis also got complete team efforts in both wins as they had four guys score in double figures against Tulsa while five guys scored in double figures against Tulane.

Connecticut’s path to the conference championship game was much different.  The Huskies had to play much better competition; their wins came against Cincinnati and Temple.  However, the way they won those games sets them up in a big regression spot this afternoon.  Connecticut beat Cincinnati is a wild and crazy 4 overtime game on Friday afternoon.  The Huskies had two guys play 54 minutes or more with four guys playing 43 minutes or more.  Connecticut had seven guys play 15 minutes or more overall, including two guys that hardly play at all.  Those extended minutes figured to have an impact on Connecticut’s game yesterday against Temple, but the Huskies played another bang-up game.  They shot 51.8% (29-56) from the field and 50% (7-14) from three-point land.  Two guys played 34 minutes or more with six guys playing 20 minutes or more.  The Huskies will regress in today’s game, so we’ll take Memphis plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play MEMPHIS (+).

Utah and Oregon will play for the third time this season.  The Ducks won the first two meetings, but the Utes had legitimate excuses for their poor play in both of those games.  In the first meeting in Utah, the Utes were just returning home off a 3-game road trip.  That is a rare scheduling spot in college basketball, and Utah was simply unprepared to play; it was their lone home loss of the season.  In the second meeting in Oregon, the Utes were on the tail end of a grueling road trip: “We’ve been in a hotel room 18 nights out of 38 since we started league play,” Utah coach Larry Krystowiak said after that loss in Oregon.  “It hasn’t exactly been easy to play 7 out of 11 on the road. We’ve grown a little road weary.”  Despite the poor scheduling spot, Utah led for most of the first half before losing the game by 10 points.

Oregon survived a crazy game in overtime against Arizona last night.  The Ducks led by 15 points at the half, and by 4 points with just 12.8 seconds left.  Arizona had a chance to win the game at the free throw line with no time left on the clock, but after making one of two free throws, the game went to overtime.  Oregon went on to win 95-89, but that game took a lot of energy out of the Ducks.  Oregon had four guys play 37 minutes or more, and the team combined to shoot 47.8% (32-67) from the field and 52.6% (10-19) from three-point land.  We expect regression from Oregon tonight as they will be playing on tired legs.  Utah also won in overtime last night, but their game against California was less taxing as it was played at a slow pace with a lot of fouls called.  The game had little flow, and Utah’s offense shot just 43.1% (25-58) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  Utah has plenty of motivation for this game, and since we expect better offensive production, we’ll back the Utes in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play UTAH (+).

New Orleans comes into tonight’s game in Milwaukee on a back-to-back set after playing in Memphis last night.  The Pelicans lost that game 121-114 in overtime after blowing a 99-97 lead with 58 seconds left to play in regulation time.  That type of loss comes with a hangover, especially for a bad team that played a lot of minutes.  New Orleans had four guys play 40 minutes or more with five guys playing 36 minutes or more.  The Pelicans had six guys play 25 minutes or more overall, including two guys on the second unit.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since New Orleans is playing on back-to-back nights.  This will also be the Pelicans’ third game in four nights with all three of those games coming on the road.

Milwaukee will play their second consecutive home game after beating Miami 114-108 on Wednesday night.  The Bucks have had two full days of rest to prepare for tonight’s game, and that gives them a huge scheduling advantage over New Orleans.  Milwaukee has played much better basketball on their home court this season.  The Bucks are 19-12 at home compared to just 8-26 on the road.  The same is true for New Orleans; the Pelicans are just 7-25 on the road compared to 17-15 on their home court.  Milwaukee owns a positive point differential at home; their offense is averaging 102.7 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land.  New Orleans owns a -6.8 point differential on the road where their defense is allowing 106.1 points per game.  New Orleans is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with Milwaukee in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BUCKS (-).

Notre Dame comes into tonight’s game against North Carolina on a back-to-back set after beating Duke in overtime yesterday afternoon.  The Irish won that game 84-79 after coming back from a 16-point second half deficit.  Notre Dame plays an extremely short rotation, and they had three of their starters play 41 minutes or more while all five starters played 35 minutes or more.  The Irish only play a 6-man rotation, and the extended minutes last night will have a major impact on tonight’s game, especially since Notre Dame will be forced into a fast-paced game by North Carolina.  The Irish also shot 50% (30-60) from the field last night, so a repeat performance is highly unlikely simply because of the terrible situational and scheduling Notre Dame is in.  Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 75 points or more in three of their last four games, and tonight they will be playing on tired legs.

North Carolina cruised to an 88-71 win over Pittsburgh yesterday.  The Tar Heels had eight guys play 14 minutes or more, so they are a much deeper team than Notre Dame, and they will also be much fresher for tonight’s game.  North Carolina is also taking this game seriously after losing to the Irish earlier this season.  The Tar Heels blew a 15-point lead on Notre Dame’s home court in that game.  North Carolina also lost to Notre Dame in last year’s ACC tournament; the Tar Heels blew an 8-point lead with less than ten minutes to play in that game.  Those blown losses will have North Carolina primed for a peak performance tonight.  Overall, the Tar Heels’ offense is averaging 83.1 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field this season.  North Carolina is catching Notre Dame at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Tar Heels in this game on Friday night.

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

UNLV comes into tonight’s game against Fresno State on a back-to-back set after beating Air Force in triple overtime last night.  The Rebels won that game 108-104 despite three walk-ons playing the majority of the third overtime.  UNLV had three guys play 54 minutes or more with four guys playing 41 minutes or more.  The Rebels had seven guys play 17 minutes or more overall, including two guys on the second unit.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since UNLV is playing on back-to-back nights with a depleted roster.  The Rebels are without four key members of their team due to injuries and eligibility issues, and they survived last night with three players who have seen very limited court time this season.  UNLV is an extremely shorthanded team, and this is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Rebels.

Fresno State has already beaten UNLV twice this season, and we expect more of the same tonight.  The Bulldogs and Rebels played in two close games, but UNLV played with a fully healthy roster in those games.  They still couldn’t beat Fresno State, and now with a depleted team, it’s highly unlikely UNLV will be able to beat the Bulldogs tonight.  Fresno State is on a 6-game winning streak, and they are 8-1 SU over their last nine games with their lone loss coming in overtime.  The Bulldogs are in excellent current form, especially on the offensive end of the court.  Fresno State has averaged 80.8 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Fresno State is catching UNLV at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play FRESNO STATE (-).

Los Angeles and Oklahoma City just played a week ago with the Clippers winning 103-98 on their home court.  That was an extremely fortunate win by Los Angeles as they trailed by 17 points going into the fourth quarter.  The Clippers out-scored Oklahoma City 35-13 over the final 12 minutes of the game to escape with the win.  Los Angeles was terrible in that game as they shot just 40.8% (40-98) from the field and 28.1% (9-32) from three-point land.  The Clippers also got dominated on the glass while getting out-rebounded by 18 (63-45), including an 18-12 deficit on the offensive glass.  Los Angeles will now play the rematch on the Thunder’s home court, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll win this game with a repeat of their performance in last week’s game.  The Clippers were in an excellent spot for their last game in Dallas which resulted in a 109-90 blowout win, but they are taking a huge step-up in class tonight against a motivated opponent.

Oklahoma City returns home off a 4-game road trip where they went just 2-2, including a loss in Los Angeles.  The Thunder have also lost their last three home games where they are still 25-8 on the season.  Oklahoma City is in a prime spot for a peak performance tonight, especially since they are playing with legitimate revenge.  In that game they lost to the Clippers, the Thunder led by as many as 22 points despite terrible offensive play.  Oklahoma City shot just 39.8% (39-98) from the field and 28.6% (10-35) from the field.  However, the Thunder owned an impressive 27-11 edge in fast break points while controlling the glass as mentioned above.  Those two dominating stats show that Oklahoma City simply owns a distinctive match-up advantage against the Clippers.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play THUNDER (-).

UCLA and USC will play for the third time this season.  The Trojans dominated the first two meetings, winning by 14 points at UCLA and by 19 points on their home court.  UCLA was simply overmatched in both of those games, and we expect more of the same tonight.  The Bruins come into this game with a 15-16 overall record, but 11 of their wins came on their home court.  UCLA is just 4-10 away from home with their average loss coming by 10.6 points per game.  UCLA’s defense is giving up 78.6 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from the field.  The Bruins have lost four straight games, and they are just 4-9 over their last 13 games.  They lost their last two games of the regular season at home, and that’s a clear indication that UCLA has quit on the season.    

USC also went cold as the season wore down; the Trojans come into tonight’s game with a 1-4 record over their last five games.  However, two of those games were on the road while their two of their home games were against Utah and Oregon.  There’s no shame in losing to those teams, so we can dismiss USC’s recent results.  The Trojans are no lock for the NCAA tournament, and they know they need to have a good showing in the Pac 12 tournament to secure an at-large bid.  “I’m pretty sure if we win, that would solidify our run this year, and we’ll get a bid in the tournament,” Julian Jacobs said.  “But say we lose, I think we’ll end up having to play in a play-in game or something like that. We really just want to beat UCLA.”  USC has plenty of motivation for this game, and since they’ve crushed the Bruins twice already, we’ll back the Trojans in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Washington had a nice 4-game winning streak going prior to losing their last two games to Indiana and Cleveland.  Their last loss came at home to Pacers, but that defeat came by just a single point (100-99).  The Wizards will now hit the road and begin a 3-game road trip in Portland tonight.  Washington’s next three games are all critically important for their playoff hopes, and since they are coming off a home loss, we expect a peak performance by the Wizards tonight.  Washington’s offense was in excellent form prior to their last two games; the Wizards had scored 103 points or more in six consecutive games.  Their offensive success will return tonight against a Portland team that has allowed 356 total points in their last three games.  Since the All-Star break, the Trail Blazers’ defense has given up 102 points or more in eight of ten games.  Overall, Portland has allowed 107.7 points per game to their opponents since the break.

Portland was one of the hottest teams in the NBA from mid-January to the beginning of March.  The Trail Blazers went 18-4 SU over a 22-game span, but most of those wins came over inferior opponents.  Things have turned sour for Portland as they come into tonight on a 3-game losing streak with two of the losses coming by 23 and 20 points.  Portland was expected to be one of the worst teams in the league after losing four of their five starters from last year’s team.  But the Trail Blazers overachieved greatly during their recent run, and now it’s time for them to regress.  Portland is returning home off a 6-game road trip, and they’ve had just one day to settle in.  Washington comes into tonight’s game with two full days of rest, so they have a scheduling advantage over Portland.  The Trail Blazers are overvalued right now, so we’ll take Washington plus the points in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play WIZARDS (+).

Los Angeles has played a tough schedule since the All-Star break, but the Clippers have managed to go 5-3 SU in those games.  Los Angeles went 2-1 against the Spurs, Warriors, and Thunder which is certainly no easy feat.  The Clippers hit the road off a poor home performance where they lost 107-97 to the Hawks.  Los Angeles was in a natural letdown spot for that game after making a big comeback in their previous game against Oklahoma City.  The Clippers’ offense was terrible in defeat as they only shot 43% (34-79) from the field and 37.5% (12-32) from three-point land.  Los Angeles was horrendous from the free throw line as well; they shot just 60.7% (17-28) from the stripe.  The Clippers turned the ball over 19 times in that game as well.  Off such a poor performance, we expect Los Angeles to bounce back strong tonight in Dallas, especially since they are catching the Mavericks at the perfect time.

Dallas comes into tonight’s game against Los Angeles on a back-to-back set after playing in Denver last night.  The Mavericks lost that game 116-114 in overtime after blowing a 106-102 lead with 21 seconds left to play in regulation time.  That type of loss comes with a hangover, especially for an older team that played a lot of minutes.  Dallas had four guys play 35 minutes or more with three guys playing 38 minutes or more.  The Mavericks had seven guys play 24 minutes or more overall, including three guys on the second unit.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since Dallas is playing on back-to-back nights.  Los Angeles is simply the better team, and with the Mavericks in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, we’ll lay the points with the Clippers in this game on Monday night.

10* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Wisconsin has been a major surprise this season as the Badgers come into tonight’s game at Purdue with a 20-10 record.  Wisconsin was supposed to be in a rebuilding season after making the Final Four last season, and head coach Bo Ryan retiring, but the team has caught many of their opponents off guard.  Wisconsin is on a 4-game winning streak, and they are 11-1 over their last twelve games.  But eight of those opponents were bad teams.  Wisconsin is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Purdue as the Badgers will be playing a back-to-back road set for just the second time in conference play this season.  The Badgers lost 69-57 at Michigan State in their lone try in this situation.  This will also be Wisconsin’s fifth road game in their last seven games overall.  Wisconsin lost to Purdue at home earlier this season; the Boilermakers held the Badgers to just 38.6% (22-57) shooting from the field and 29.4% (5-17) shooting from three-point land.  That game was on Wisconsin’s strong home court, so it’s hard to imagine their offense being any better with the rematch being on the Boilermakers’ home court.

Purdue is 23-7 on the season, including a 16-1 mark at home where they own an excellent +18.5 point differential.  The Boilermakers play outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 63.3 points per game on 37.7% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 81.8 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue is playing their final home game of the season, so they will bring their best effort, especially since they still have something to play for.  “We want to get a top-four seed, and we can control that by winning the game,” P.J. Thompson said.  “If we can get Wisconsin twice, I think that would be huge, with the win coming off Nebraska, and finishing out for the seniors.”  Purdue is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Boilermakers in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play PURDUE (-).

Brooklyn has had a miserable season; the Nets come into tonight’s game in Minnesota with an 18-44 record, including a 7-22 mark on the road.  Brooklyn is currently on a 9-game road trip, and tonight’s game will be their seventh of the trip.  The Nets have played in multiple time zones, and they’ve gone in and out of altitude as well.  Brooklyn won 121-120 in overtime last night in Denver on a last-second tip-in.  However, last night’s win sets the Nets up in a flat spot for tonight’s game against Minnesota, especially since they exerted a lot of energy in a game that had 17 lead changes while being played in thin air and altitude.  The Nets had five guys play 33 minutes or more with nine guys playing 16 minutes or more.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since Brooklyn will be playing their seventh game in twelve nights with all of those games coming on the road. 

Minnesota has played a tough schedule since the All-Star break, so their record is poor.  But the Timberwolves were expected to lose games to the Celtics, Raptors, Mavericks, Wizards, and Grizzlies.  The Timberwolves return home off a loss in Milwaukee, and they also lost their previous home game as well, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  Minnesota finally gets a team below their level, and they already beat Brooklyn with little trouble earlier this season.  Back in December, Minnesota won 100-85 in Brooklyn.  They led that game by as many as 20 points, and they out-scored the Nets in three of four quarters.  Minnesota is simply a better team than Brooklyn, and with the Nets in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, we’ll lay the points with the Timberwolves in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Pittsburgh is 20-9 on the season, but the Panthers have won 15 of those games on their home court.  Pittsburgh is just 3-5 in true road games with their average loss coming by 11.6 points per game.  The Panthers began the season at 14-1, but they’ve gone just 6-8 over their last 14 games, including 2-5 on the road.  The majority of Pittsburgh’s wins have come against inferior competition like Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Boston College.  Pittsburgh’s offense is only averaging 64.4 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Their lack of offense has been a major reason why they haven’t won road games with consistency this season.

Georgia Tech returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 56-53 loss at Louisville.  That was an impressive showing considering the Cardinals were playing their final home game in a season they are banned from post-season play.  The Yellow Jackets will now play their final home game of the season, and with four senior starters, we expect a peak performance this afternoon.  The Yellow Jackets are averaging 76.6 points per game at home, and they scored 84 points at Pittsburgh earlier this season.  Georgia Tech is holding their opponents to 69.5 points per game on 43.1% shooting from the field and 32.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll back the Yellow Jackets in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (-).

West Virginia is a good team, and the Mountaineers come into today’s game at Baylor with a solid 23-7 record.  West Virginia is 6-4 in true road games this season, but their wins have come against inferior competition like Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Kansas State.  All four of those teams are poor, so winning on the road against those schools is unimpressive.  West Virginia has been unable to win on the road against capable teams; they lost by 7 points at Texas, 10 points at Kansas, and by 17 points at Florida.  Overall, West Virginia’s defense is giving up 75.9 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 38.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Baylor returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 73-71 loss at Oklahoma.  The Bears have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance this afternoon.  Baylor will be playing their final home game of the season, and they have three seniors starters to honor.  The Bears are 15-4 at home where they are averaging 79.4 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land.  Baylor’s defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 66.6 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Baylor in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play BAYLOR (-).

Utah has had terrible results since the All-Star break.  The Jazz have gone just 2-6 in their last eight games, and they come into tonight’s game in Memphis on a 4-game losing streak.  However, the recent results can be attributed to the level of competition Utah has played.  Losing to teams like the Spurs, Celtics, and Raptors was expected.  Utah also played some of the hottest teams in the NBA like the Trail Blazers and Wizards.  Despite losing, Utah has been a competitive team as four of the losses have come by 10 points or less with three of the losses coming by 5 points or less.  Utah’s defense has allowed 100 points or more in back-to-back games.  They’ve done that ten other times so far this season.  In the game following those poor defensive efforts, the Jazz have allowed just 95.1 points per game.  Utah also went 7-3 SU in those games, so we expect a strong bounce back effort from the Jazz tonight.      

Memphis has gone 5-2 since the All-Star break, but the opponents played had a lot to do with those winning results.  The Grizzlies beat the Lakers twice, Timberwolves, Nuggets, and Kings.  Those four teams are all terrible, and unlikely to make the playoffs.  Utah is currently 1.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, so Memphis is actually stepping-up in class for this game.  The Memphis front office got rid of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green at the trade deadline, and they acquired nothing but baggage in return with Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, and Chris Andersen.  The moves made by management were to accumulate draft picks so they can rebuild their old and aging roster.  The recent wins have come as a major surprise, especially since Memphis’ current roster is one of the worst in the NBA.  The Grizzlies have been winning with smoke and mirrors, so we’ll back Utah in this game on Friday night.

10* Play JAZZ (+).

California has won seven consecutive games as they come into tonight’s game at Arizona with a 21-8 record.  However, five of their last seven games came on their home court where they are a perfect 18-0 on the season.  California is just 3-6 in true road games this season, and this game will be their stiffest road challenge of the season.  The Golden Bears beat Arizona 74-73 at home earlier this season, but California was extremely fortunate to win that game.  The Wildcats were missing one of their better players, Alonzo Trier, in that game.  Despite that, Arizona out-shot California 50.9%-45% from the field and 44.4%-36.4% from three-point land.  California will now face Arizona on the road where their defense is allowing 70.8 points per game on 37.1% shooting from three-point land this season.  

Arizona returns home off back-to-back road losses at Colorado and at Utah.  That back-to-back road trip is the toughest in the Pac 12, so those losses can be excused.  Arizona owns one of the strongest home courts in all of college basketball.  The Wildcats are 15-1 at home where they own an incredible +20.4 point differential this season.  Arizona is averaging 85 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field and 39.4% shooting from three-point land.  The Wildcats’ defense is holding opponents to just 64.6 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Arizona in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play ARIZONA (-).

Connecticut is once again having a good season as they come into tonight’s game at SMU with a 20-9 record.  However, the Huskies have lost two of their last three games, and they are just 3-3 over their last six games.  Connecticut is simply in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game at SMU.  The Huskies will be playing their third road game over their last four games, and this will also be their third game in the last eight days.  Connecticut’s offense has struggled away from home all season; the Huskies are only averaging 67.7 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field.  In their earlier defeat of SMU, the Huskies only scored 68 points on the Mustangs’ defense, and that game was on Connecticut’s home court.

SMU is having a tremendous season as they come into this game with a 24-4 record.  The Mustangs are 15-1 at home where they own an excellent +17.7 point differential.  SMU plays outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 61.9 points per game on 39.2% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  SMU’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 79.6 points per game on 50.7% shooting from the field and 41.7% shooting from three-point land.  SMU is banned from post-season play, and this is will be the final home game for their two best players who are both seniors.  The Mustangs will bring their best effort, so we’ll lay the points with SMU in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play SMU (-).

Cincinnati is a good team, and the Bearcats come into tonight’s game at Houston with a solid 21-8 record.  Cincinnati is just 6-5 in true road games this season, but their wins have come against inferior competition like East Carolina, South Florida, Central Florida, and Bowling Green.  All four of those teams are terrible, so winning on the road against those schools is unimpressive.  Cincinnati has been unable to win on the road against capable teams; they lost by 10 points at Xavier, 4 points at Memphis, and by 2 points at Temple.  In their three road losses listed above, the Bearcats scored 65 points or less.  Overall, Cincinnati’s offense is only averaging 63.8 points per game on 38.5% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Houston is having an excellent season, but the Cougars are flying under the radar.  Houston comes into this game with a 21-8 record, including a 14-3 mark at home.  They’ve played three of their last four games on the road, and since they lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Houston’s offense is averaging 80.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field at home.  The Cougars’ defense is holding opponents to just 67.1 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 29% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a big effort by Houston here, so we’ll back the Cougars in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play HOUSTON (+).

Georgia comes into tonight’s game at South Carolina with a 15-12 record, but 13 of those wins have come on their home court.  Georgia is just 2-8 in true road games with those eight losses coming by an average of 10.8 points per game.  Four of their eight losses have come by double digits, so the Bulldogs have not been too competitive in their away games.  Georgia is in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Bulldogs went into their last game off three competitive games; they won at Mississippi State as 4-point underdogs, they lost by 4 points at home to Florida, and they lost at Auburn by 3 points.  They finally put everything together in their last game when they beat Mississippi 80-68 at home.  Now they must hit the road where their defense is giving up 75 points per game.

South Carolina returns home off a 10-point road loss at Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon.  Tonight will be the final home game for three starting seniors, so we expect a peak performance from South Carolina in this game.  The Gamecocks are 15-1 at home where they own a solid +11.8 point differential on the season.  South Carolina’s offense has been outstanding at home where they are averaging 80.5 points per game.  The Gamecocks lost at Georgia earlier this season, but South Carolina only shot 31.6% (18-57) from the field and 31.8% (7-22) from three-point land in that game.  The Gamecocks’ offense will play much better tonight, so we’ll lay the points with South Carolina in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (-).

Memphis is just 16-13 on the season, and 14 of their wins have come on their home court, including their 92-82 win over Tulsa on Sunday afternoon.  We won a Best Bet selection on Memphis in that game, but we’re going to play against them tonight.  The Tigers are just 1-7 in true road games this season with their average loss coming by 9 points per game.  Prior to their last win, Memphis was just 3-8 over their previous eleven games, including 1-5 on the road.  The Tigers’ defense has been horrendous on the road all season.  Memphis is giving up 85.1 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Memphis did beat Temple at home earlier this season, but they only won that game by 2 points (65-63) despite owning a +18 point edge from the free throw line and a +21 edge in free throw attempts.

Temple is 18-10 on the season, including a 10-3 record at home.  The Owls are a veteran team that starts three seniors.  Tonight will be the last home game of their careers, so we expect a peak performance, especially since they blew a win at Memphis earlier this season.  Temple led that game by 11 points in the second half before losing the game late.  Temple’s defense has been solid at home where they are only allowing 67.5 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  Temple is in a terrific spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Owls in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play TEMPLE (-).

Detroit lost their first two games after the All-Star break, but since then, the Pistons have gone a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS.  Detroit won at Cleveland, and they also beat Toronto at home, so they’ve played good competition as well.  The Pistons acquired Tobias Harris at the trade deadline, and since being inserted into the starting lineup, Detroit’s offense has come alive.  “We’ve been much better sharing the ball,” Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy said.  “What it does, is that when the ball is moving, you create good feelings, energy and guys want to play.”  The players feel the same way: “It just shows the team chemistry is coming along,” said Tobias Harris.  “Everybody’s looking for each other and playing off each other. I think the biggest thing is what we say when we’re gathering is ‘Family on three,’ and guys are praying like a family.”  Detroit has scored 327 points in their last three games, so they are in excellent current form. 

San Antonio’s incredible season has continued since the All-Star break; the Spurs are 5-1 with all of those games coming on the road.  But tonight presents a poor situational and scheduling spot for San Antonio.  The Spurs will play their first home game since February 6th, and it will be just their second home game in a month.  San Antonio goes on their annual ‘Rodeo Trip’ each season, but the first game back is often difficult and challenging.  The Spurs have been off for the last three days as well, and extra rest has not been good for this veteran team this season.  San Antonio is just 1-2 SU and ATS with 3 days of rest or more, and their offense has averaged just 103 points per game in that situation.  Detroit is playing San Antonio at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Pistons plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Mississippi State comes into tonight’s game at in-state rival Mississippi with a losing 13-15 record; 9 of their wins have come on their home court.  Mississippi State is 2-8 in true road games with those eight losses coming by an average of 9.4 points per game.  Four of their eight losses have come by double digits, so the Bulldogs have not been too competitive in their away games.  Mississippi State is in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Bulldogs went into their last game off three consecutive close games; they beat Vanderbilt by 1 point, they won at Alabama by 6 points, and they lost at Texas A&M by 2 points.  They finally put everything together in their last game when they beat South Carolina 68-58 at home.  Now they must hit the road where their defense is giving up 76.8 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from the field. 

Mississippi returns home off a blowout road loss at Georgia on Saturday.  We won a Best Bet selection against the Rebels in that game, so their loss was expected, and it can be easily dismissed.  Mississippi has played three of their last four games on the road, and with tonight being the last home game for three starting seniors, we expect a peak performance.  The Rebels are 11-2 at home on the season.  Mississippi’s offense has been outstanding at home where they are averaging 79.9 points per game.  The Rebels lost at Mississippi State earlier this season, but they only lost that game by 6 points despite the Bulldogs shooting 51.9% from the field, 50% from three-point land, and 88.2% from the free throw line.  Mississippi is in a terrific spot for a big bounce win, so we’ll lay the points with the Rebels in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play MISSISSIPPI (-).

Indiana is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Iowa with a 23-6 record.  However, 16 of those wins have come on their home court, and they are just 5-4 in true road games this season.  Indiana will be playing back-to-back road games, and this will also be their sixth road game over their last ten games.  This is a poor scheduling and situational spot for Indiana, especially since the Hoosiers’ defense has been horrendous on the road all season.  The Hoosiers are giving up 72.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Indiana did beat Iowa at home earlier this season, but the Hawkeyes’ offense scored 78 points on 46% (29-63) shooting from the field and 38.9% (7-18) shooting from three-point land in that game.  

Iowa was having an excellent season, but they’ve been struggling as of late.  The Hawkeyes are just 1-4 over their last five games, including three straight losses coming into tonight.  But this is a fantastic bounce back spot for Iowa, especially since they also lost their previous home game.  Iowa is a veteran team that starts four seniors who have won 87 games as a group.  Tonight will be the last home game of their careers, so we expect a peak performance.  Iowa is 13-1 at home where they own a terrific +15.1 point differential on the season.  Iowa’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 81.7 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa is in an excellent bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Hawkeyes in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play IOWA (-).

Virginia hits the road after beating North Carolina 79-74 on Saturday night.  We cashed a Best Bet selection on the Cavaliers in that game, but tonight we’re going to play against them.  That was a big win for Virginia, and we expect the Cavaliers to suffer a letdown tonight, especially since they are playing on the road in a quick turnaround situation.  Virginia is just 4-6 in true road games this season; they’ve lost their last two conference road games.  The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, but so does Clemson, and that negates Virginia’s style of play advantage.  The Cavaliers are also going from a North Carolina team that plays at an ultra-fast tempo to a Clemson team that plays at the opposite pace.  That type of dramatic stylistic change often hampers offensive production, so Virginia will have a difficult time winning this game by margin tonight. 

Clemson is having a mediocre season as the Tigers come into this game with a 16-12 record.  However, they are off back-to-back road losses at NC State and at Georgia Tech.  The Tigers return home where they are 13-3 on the season, so we expect a peak performance in tonight’s game, especially since this will be their last home game for two seniors.  Clemson owns a solid +12.8 point differential at home.  The Tigers’ defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 57.8 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a big bounce back game by Clemson here, so we’ll take the Tigers plus the points on Tuesday night.

9* Play CLEMSON (+).

Memphis will play their third consecutive road game, and their fourth road game in six games since the All-Star break.  That is not a good thing, especially for a team that will be playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  The Grizzlies won 102-101 in Denver last month, but Memphis was playing with a much different roster back then.  The Memphis front office cleaned house after that game when they got rid of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green and acquired nothing but baggage in return with Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, and Chris Andersen.  The Grizzlies are already without Marc Gasol for the rest of the season.  The moves made by management were to accumulate draft picks as they rebuild their old and aging roster over the next couple of seasons.  Since making the moves, Memphis has gone 3-2 SU with two wins over the hapless Lakers, and a lucky comeback win at home over Minnesota.  The Grizzlies were not competitive against the Raptors, and they lost to a terrible Phoenix team.  Memphis’ current roster simply has no business laying points on the road.

Denver returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 122-116 overtime loss in Dallas.  The Nuggets also lost their last two home games, so we expect a peak performance in tonight’s game.  Denver is 0-17 this season when getting out-rebounded, but the Nuggets should dominate the glass tonight.  In the last two meetings against Memphis, the Nuggets had a 99-80 rebounding edge, including a 29-15 edge on the offensive glass.  The Grizzlies have also historically struggled in Denver; Memphis is 4-26 SU their last 30 visits to the Mile High City.  Denver’s offense has scored 100 points or more in nine consecutive home games, and in ten of their last eleven home games overall.  Memphis has allowed 105.4 points per game in their last five games, so the Nuggets will have a lot of offensive success tonight.  We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Monday night.

10* Play NUGGETS (+)

Tulsa is a good team, and the Golden Hurricane come into today’s game at Memphis with a solid 19-9 record.  Tulsa is 6-4 in true road games this season, but their wins have come against inferior competition like Missouri State, East Carolina, Tulane, and Central Florida.  All four of those teams are terrible, so winning on the road against those schools is unimpressive.  Tulsa has been unable to win on the road against capable teams; they lost by 19 points at Cincinnati, 15 points at Houston, and by 4 points at Temple.  In their three road losses listed above, the Golden Hurricane gave up 80 points per game.  Overall, Tulsa’s defense is allowing 71.2 points per game on the road this season.  Tulsa will be playing their fourth road game over their last six games, and with the final home game for seven seniors on deck, this game is one they can easily be overlooking.      

Memphis is having a mediocre season as the Tigers come into this game with a 15-13 record.  However, they are off back-to-back losses with their last being a 69-62 home loss to SMU.  There’s no shame in losing to the Mustangs, and off that loss, we expect a peak performance this afternoon, especially since this will be the last home game for two starting seniors who average a combined 26.6 points per game.  Memphis is 13-6 at home where they are holding opponents to just 64.9 points per game on 37.2% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a big bounce back game by Memphis here, so we’ll back the Tigers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play MEMPHIS (+).

North Carolina comes into this game with a 23-5 record, but 18 of those wins have come either on their home court or on a neutral court.  The Tar Heels are just 5-4 in true road games this season, and two of those losses have come against teams that play exactly the same way as tonight’s opponent.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Tar Heels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, North Carolina’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Tar Heels will not get their preferred style of play tonight against Virginia.  The Tar Heels are 2-2 this season when held to less than 70 points; their wins came against bad teams like NC State and Boston College while the losses came at Louisville and at Northern Iowa.  The posted total is currently 137.5, so the oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game.  That is the lowest total on a North Carolina game this season; their previous low was 144.5 in a game they scored just 68 points against Boston College.

Virginia returns home off a 64-61 loss at Miami, Fla on Monday night.  The Cavaliers are a perfect 13-0 at home where they own an outstanding +14.6 point differential on the season.  Virginia plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Cavaliers play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with an excellent defense that is holding opponents to just 57.6 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 32.9% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Virginia is 2-1 against North Carolina in the last three meetings, and that’s because the Tar Heels are clueless when they are forced to play half-court basketball.  Virginia’s style will frustrate North Carolina, so we’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play VIRGINIA (-).

Oklahoma is having a fantastic season as they come into today’s game at Texas with a 22-5 record.  The Sooners have been terrific on both ends of the court, but this game against the Longhorns is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma.  The Sooners will be playing on the road for the third time in four games, and this will also be their seventh road game over their last twelve games.  The Sooners haven’t been as dominant on the road either where they are just 6-4 in true road games this season; they survived by 2 points at LSU and at Oklahoma State, they won by 3 points at Hawaii, and they only won by 6 points at Memphis.  Overall, the Sooners’ defense is giving up 77.6 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Texas is having a fantastic season considering they are in the first year of head coach Shaka Smart’s system, and without their best player because of injury.  Texas comes into this game with an 18-10 record, including a 13-2 mark at home where they own a terrific +9.9 point differential on the season.  Texas’ defense has been phenomenal at home where they are allowing just 65.3 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from three-point land.  Texas only lost by 3 points (63-60) at Oklahoma earlier this month after blowing a 9-point halftime lead.  The Longhorns actually led that game for all but 49 seconds which is quite impressive considering Oklahoma is 13-1 on their home court this season.  With Texas off a loss in their previous home game, we expect a peak performance here, so we’ll back the Longhorns in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play TEXAS (+).

Mississippi has a decent 18-10 record on the season, but eleven of those wins have come on their home court.  The Rebels are just 6-6 in true road games this season with four of those wins coming against inferior out-of-conference opponents.  Mississippi is just 2-5 on the road in conference play, and those wins came against Missouri and Auburn who are the two worst teams in the SEC.  The Rebels’ five losses have come by an average of 11.4 points per game.  Overall, Mississippi has played the #80th rated schedule this season, so the majority of their wins have come against weak opponents.  To compare, Georgia has played the #48th rated schedule this season.  Mississippi’s defense is giving up 72.2 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 34% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Georgia returns home off back-to-back road losses at Vanderbilt and at Auburn.  The Bulldogs also lost their previous home game to Florida, so off their recent losses, we expect a strong performance here, especially since Georgia is 12-4 on their home court this season.  Georgia only lost by 1 point (72-71) at Mississippi last month after blowing a 9-point halftime lead and a 71-67 lead with 57 seconds left to play.  Georgia’s defense has been outstanding at home all season.  The Bulldogs are only giving up 64.4 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the field and 28.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Georgia is in a terrific bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

9* Play GEORGIA (-).

Memphis just beat the Lakers by 9 points at home on Wednesday night, but their margin of victory was quite unimpressive considering their on-court performance.  The Grizzlies shot 56.5% (48-85) from the field and 48.1% (13-27) from three-point land.  They also had six players score in double figures, and eight players score at least 8 points or more.  Despite all that, Memphis was only able to win the game by 9 points on their home court.  Now they will face the same team on the road, and it’s hard to imagine Memphis duplicating that production.  The Memphis front office cleaned house at the trade deadline; they got rid of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green and acquired nothing but baggage in return with Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, and Chris Andersen.  The Grizzlies are already without Marc Gasol for the rest of the season.  The moves made by management were to accumulate draft picks as they rebuild their old and aging roster over the next couple of seasons.  Memphis’ current roster has no business laying points on the road regardless of the opponent.

Los Angeles has had a horrendous season; the Lakers come into tonight’s game with an 11-48 record.  The Lakers are an extremely young team, and despite the continuous losses, they have not quit on the season.  Los Angeles finally returns home after playing seven of their last eight games on the road.  Their last home game was against an elite San Antonio team, so we can easily dismiss that loss even though the Lakers only came up 6 points short.  The team is simply glad to be back at home: “The atmosphere is finally good. We’ve got the home crowd on our side,” D’Angelo Russell said.  “It plays a bigger factor in winning or losing the game when you’ve got the home crowd. I feel like the fans want to see a show so it’s a good opportunity to put on a show for these guys.”  Memphis is an overvalued team right now, and with Los Angeles in a good bounce back spot, we’ll take the Lakers plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play LAKERS (+).

Golden State’s incredible season has continued since the All-Star break; the Warriors are 3-1 SU with all of those games coming on the road.  Golden State won 118-112 last night in Miami after coming back from a 12-point deficit.  The Warriors out-scored the Heat 38-29 in the fourth quarter to steal that win.  However, last night’s win sets the Warriors up in a flat spot for tonight’s game against Orlando, especially since Golden State has Oklahoma City on deck.  The Warriors had three guys play 33 minutes or more with six guys playing 27 minutes or more last night.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since Golden State will now be playing their fifth game in seven nights with all of those games coming on the road.

Orlando has played extremely well since the All-Star break.  The Magic have gone 2-1 SU in their three games with their lone loss coming by 3 points.  Orlando lost their last home game, and since they are 15-13 SU at home this season, the Magic qualify in a good bounce-back situation and are now setup to play a competitive game tonight.  Orlando acquired Ersan Ilyasova during the All-Star break, and his defense has really bolstered Orlando in recent games.  Brandon Jennings was also acquired at the trade deadline, and he provides instant offense off the bench.  Orlando is a different team now, and they are an undervalued commodity.  Victor Oladipo is questionable tonight, but the Magic have actually been a better defensive team without him on the court this season.  Orlando is catching Golden State at the right time, so we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play MAGIC (+).

College of Charleston comes into tonight’s game with a 16-11 record.  That record is quite surprising considering the lack of talent the Cougars have.  Head coach Earl Grant was forced to install an extremely slow-paced style of play because of his roster, and that has worked for the team.  Grant starts one player, Payton Hulsey, strictly as a defensive stopper; Hulsey rarely shoots the ball on offense.  College of Charleston beat Northeastern 68-61 on their home court earlier this season, but they needed overtime to win that game after rallying from a 12-point halftime deficit.  Charleston is also in a poor scheduling spot for this game after losing their last home game in overtime to conference leader NC-Wilmington.  The Cougars will play with a hangover off that loss, and a lack of focus usually comes on the defensive end in this type of situation.  

Northeastern returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 65-60 loss at Hofstra.  The Huskies have played three of their last four games on the road, and with tonight’s game being the last home game for four starting seniors, we expect a peak performance.  Northeastern’s four seniors have combined for 83 wins, two CAA regular season titles, a CAA tournament title, and an NCAA tournament appearance for the first time in 24 years.  The Huskies are a veteran group that is used to winning, so tonight’s final home game will bring out their best effort.  The Huskies are averaging 74.3 points per game at home, so we expect a strong offensive performance by Northeastern tonight.  We’ll lay the points with the Huskies in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play NORTHEASTERN (-).

Southern Illinois has been a surprise this season; the Salukis come into tonight’s game at Illinois State with a a 21-8 record.  Southern Illinois has posted their first winning season since 2008, and their first 20-plus win season in nine years.  The Salukis will be playing a back-to-back road set here, and it will be just the second time in conference play this season.  The last time they were in this situation, Southern Illinois played poorly in the second road game as they lost by 21 points after shooting just 30.6% (19-62) from the field and 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land.  The Salukis beat Illinois State 81-78 on their home court earlier this season, but they needed to rally from a 6-point halftime deficit to win that game.  Southern Illinois gave up 78 points to the Redbirds on their home court, and they’ll be hard-pressed to slow Illinois State down in tonight’s game, especially since the Salukis have allowed 70.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field over their last five games. 

Illinois State returns home off a 75-66 loss at Northern Iowa on Saturday afternoon.  That game can be easily dismissed as Northern Iowa was playing with revenge after losing 76-67 to Illinois State earlier this season.  The Redbirds are now back at home, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight, especially with this being the last home game for three starting seniors.  Illinois State is 12-3 at home where they are holding opponents to just 62 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field and 31.2% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a peak performance by Illinois State here, so we’ll lay the points with the Redbirds in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play ILLINOIS STATE (-).

Sacramento and Denver just played on Friday night with the Kings winning 116-110 on their home court.  Sacramento shot 49.4% (41-83) from the field, 47.6% (10-21) from three-point land, and 77.4% (24-31) from the free throw line and they only won that game by 6 points at home.  The Kings also had five players score in double figures, including three starters scoring 24 points or more.  Despite all that, the Kings only won the game by two possessions, and that does not bode well for tonight’s rematch in Denver.  The Kings have played just one game since the All-Star break; that came with 8 full days of rest.  Sacramento comes into tonight’s game with another 3 full days of rest, but that is not a good thing, especially since they’ll be playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  Teams with limited conditioning have an extremely difficult time playing in altitude, and we expect that to be a major factor in this game, especially in the second half.

Denver has lost both of their games since the All-Star break.  The Nuggets lost the aforementioned game in Sacramento, and they lost to the Celtics at home on Sunday night.  Despite losing, the Nuggets have a scheduling edge since they are back into their rhythm with two games played since the long layoff.  Denver will be playing just their third home game since February 5th, and since they lost their last home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Prior to their recent home loss, the Nuggets were 3-1 in their previous four home games with their offensive averaging 109 points per game.  Denver’s offense will have little trouble scoring on a terrible Sacramento defense that is allowing 111.5 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Denver is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play NUGGETS (-).

Vanderbilt comes into tonight’s game at Florida with a 16-11 record, but 12 of those wins have come on their home court.  The Commodores are just 2-8 in true road games this season, and tonight’s game will be an extremely difficult challenge.  Vanderbilt is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Commodores play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Vanderbilt’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Commodores will not get their preferred style of play tonight against Florida.  Vanderbilt is 0-7 on the road this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by 9.1 points per game.  Vanderbilt did beat Florida 60-59 at home earlier this season, but that was on their home court and it was their only win of the season when held to less than 70 points.

Florida returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 73-69 overtime loss at South Carolina.  The Gators also lost their previous home game, so we expect a supreme effort tonight.  Florida is 12-2 at home where they own a terrific +15.1 point differential.  Florida plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Gators play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with a solid defense that is holding opponents to 38.7% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  Florida’s style will frustrate Vanderbilt, so we’ll lay the points with the Gators in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play FLORIDA (-).

Detroit and Cleveland both played yesterday, but the results were much different.  The Pistons lost at home to the Pelicans while the Cavaliers blew out the Thunder in Oklahoma City.  Now the teams will meet tonight in Cleveland, and Detroit gets a good setup to play a competitive game.  The Pistons have lost both of their games since the All-Star break, and they were just 6-11 over their final 17 games of the first half of the season.  Detroit acquired Tobias Harris at the All-Star break, and he will play with the starting five tonight.  In his two games with the Pistons, Harris has scored 37 points off the bench.  With more playing time tonight, we expect Harris to have an impact on this game from the opening tip.  In two games against Cleveland this season, Detroit is 1-1 with their loss coming by just 8 points.  The Pistons have played the Cavaliers close, and tonight’s game will be more of the same.   

Cleveland has won both of their games since the All-Star break; they beat the Bulls in their first game of the second half.  Yesterday’s big win over the Thunder sets the Cavaliers up in a major flat spot for tonight’s game against Detroit.  Cleveland won by 23 points (115-92) in Oklahoma City after shooting 51.2% (41-80) from the field, 43.5% (10-23), and 85.2% (23-27) from the free throw line.  Cleveland played a perfect game, but four guys played 35 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 37 minutes or more.  Cleveland also had two players off their bench play 25 minutes or more.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since the Cavaliers are off a spotlight win.  Detroit is playing Cleveland at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Pistons plus the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play PISTONS (+).

Memphis has gone 15-6 over their last 21 games after going 16-16 over their first 32 games of the season.  Their recent winning ways appear to be quite impressive on the surface, but the current state of the team and organization tell a different tale.  The Memphis front office cleaned house at the trade deadline; they got rid of Courtney Lee and Jeff Green and acquired nothing but baggage in return with Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, and Chris Andersen.  The Grizzlies are already without Marc Gasol for the rest of the season.  The moves made by management were to accumulate draft picks as they rebuild their old and aging roster over the next couple of seasons.  The current team is a group of malcontents that gave themselves the nickname “The Goon Squad” which is a fitting description.  Memphis beat Minnesota at home on Friday night, but they needed to out-score the lowly Timberwolves 33-23 in the fourth quarter to win that game by 5 points.  Now they will hit the road and step way up in class against a Toronto team coming off a bad performance.

Toronto lost 116-106 in Chicago as 7.5-point road favorites on Friday night.  The Raptors played a terrible game on both ends of the court, and off such a bad performance, we expect a peak effort in tonight’s game.  Toronto will play their first home game since January 30th.  The Raptors are 18-6 on their home court where they own a +7.1 point differential on the season.  Toronto’s offense is averaging 103.9 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 39.3% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  The Raptors’ defense has been terrific all season; they allow just 97.7 points per game and only 96.8 points per game at home.  That unit comes into this game off back-to-back games in which they gave up 100 points or more.  That has already happened eight times this season with the Raptors going 7-1 SU in their following game with those seven wins coming by an average of 13.1 points per game.  Toronto is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

Michigan comes into today’s game at Maryland with a 19-8 record, but 12 of those wins have come on their home court.  Michigan is just 4-4 in true road games with those four losses all coming by 10 points or more with their average loss coming by 15.5 points per game.  The Wolverines have not been a competitive bunch in their away games, and we expect that to be the case once again this afternoon.  Michigan’s defense has been atrocious on the road this season.  The Wolverines are giving up 74.5 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from the field.  Michigan’s defense has been even worse lately as they’ve allowed 75 points per game on 50.5% shooting from the field and 40.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Wolverines will face a Maryland offense that is averaging 77.4 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  

Maryland returns home off a poor 68-63 road loss at Minnesota on Thursday night.  The Terrapins also lost their previous game 70-57 at home to Wisconsin.  Maryland played two of their worst offensive games of the season as they combined to shoot just 38.7% (41-106) from the field, 36.4% (12-33) from three-point land, and 63.4% (26-41) from the free throw line.  Off those two poor performances and back at home where they recently lost, we expect a peak effort in this game.  The Terrapins are 14-1 at home where they own an a terrific +15 point differential on the season.  Maryland’s defense has been good at home while holding opponents to just 62.4 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field and 27.4% shooting from three-point land.  Maryland is in a terrific spot for a big bounce win, so we’ll lay the points with the Terrapins in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play MARYLAND (-).

St. Mary’s comes into tonight’s game at Gonzaga with a 21-4 record, but 16 of those wins have come on their home court.  The Gaels have been dominant at home, but that wasn’t the case when they hosted Gonzaga a month ago.  St. Mary’s only won that game by 3 points, but they actually trailed by 8 points at the half, and they trailed by 3 points with four minutes to play.  The difference in that game came at the free throw line where St. Mary’s was +11 points (14-3) and +11 attempts (16-5).  Gonzaga actually out-shot the Gaels 59.2%-50% from the field and 40%-37.5% from three-point land.  St. Mary’s will now play the rematch on the road where they are just 5-3 this season.  The Gaels’ offense is only averaging 67.2 points per game on 44.1% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from three-point land.

Gonzaga will play their second consecutive home game after playing four straight games on the road.  The Zags come in off a 90-68 blowout win over Pacific on Thursday night.  Gonzaga is 11-3 at home where they own an excellent +19.2 point differential on the season.  The Zags’ defense has been terrific at home as they are holding opponents to just 62.9 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the field and 23.6% shooting from three-point land.  Gonzaga’s offense has been incredible at home where they are averaging 82.1 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field and 41.5% shooting from three-point land.  Gonzaga is in a fantastic revenge spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Zags in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play GONZAGA (-).

Nevada has been a surprise this season; the Wolfpack come into tonight’s game at UNLV with a a 16-9 record.  But they’ve played much better basketball at home.  Nevada is just 5-7 in true road games where they’ve allowed 76.4 points per game.  The Wolfpack will be playing a back-to-back road set here, and it will be the second time this season in which they come in off a previous road win.  The last time they were in this situation, Nevada played poorly in the second road game.  They lost by 9 points at Colorado State after shooting just 38.7% (24-62) from the field and 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land.  The Wolfpack beat UNLV 65-63 on their home court earlier this season, but that’s unimpressive considering the Rebels have won just one game all season when held to less than 70 points.  UNLV led that game by 9 points with 10 minutes left to play, so they were in control of that game on Nevada’s home court.

UNLV returns home off a 79-74 loss at Air Force on Tuesday night.  That game can be easily dismissed as Air Force was hell bent on revenge after getting embarrassed 100-64 by UNLV earlier in the season.  UNLV is now back at home, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  The Rebels are averaging 78.2 points per game at home this season, and they will get their preferred fast pace against a poor Nevada defense.  UNLV’s defense is only allowing 68.7 points per game on 41.7% shooting from the field and 32.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a peak performance by UNLV here, so we’ll lay the points with the Rebels in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play UNLV (-).

Texas Tech has been a major surprise this season as the Red Raiders come into tonight’s game at Oklahoma State with a 16-9 record.  Texas Tech is on a 3-game winning streak, but those three wins set the team up in an awful spot for tonight’s game.  The Red Raiders are in a terrible situational spot because they come in off three consecutive SU wins as underdogs with their last being a 65-63 home win over Oklahoma.  The Red Raiders beat Oklahoma State 63-61 in overtime on their home court earlier this season.  Texas Tech actually trailed that game by 7 points with six minutes left to play before rallying back and winning in overtime.  Texas Tech’s defense is giving up 75.6 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 41.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Oklahoma State returns home off a 27-point blowout loss at Kansas on Monday night.  That game can be easily dismissed as Kansas was focused on revenge after getting embarrassed 86-67 by Oklahoma State earlier in the season.  Oklahoma State is now back at home, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  The Cowboys play outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 62.1 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma State’s offense has been much better at home where they are averaging 70.6 points per game.  Oklahoma State is catching Texas Tech at the perfect time, so we’ll back the Cowboys in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (-).

Detroit and Washington played back in mid-November with the Wizards winning 97-95 on the Pistons’ home court.  That game was close throughout, and tonight’s game should play out the same way.  Detroit went into the All-Star break in poor current form as they lost three consecutive games, and they were just 6-11 over their final 17 games of the first half of the season.  The All-Star break came at the perfect time for the Pistons, and the eight days off allowed them to regroup for a second half push.  Detroit also got rid of Brandon Jennings at the trade deadline while acquiring Tobias Harris; those moves instantly improved the team.  The Pistons are the only team currently out of the playoffs that own more road wins than home losses on the season.  That is a predictive measure that correlates directly to playoff teams in the NBA, so the Pistons are an undervalued commodity right now. 

Washington was also struggling heading into the All-Star break as the Wizards were just 4-9 in their final 13 games of the first half.  Washington played at home last night, and the Wizards beat the Jazz 103-89.  Washington shot 48.8% (42-86) from the field and 38.9% (7-18) from three-point land, so they were certainly ready off the long rest.  However, three guys played 34 minutes or more with five guys playing 29 minutes or more.  Washington also had three players off their bench play 21 minutes or more.  Those extended minutes will have an impact on tonight’s game, especially since the Wizards haven’t played back-to-back games since February 5th and 6th, and they’ll be doing so after having eight days off.  Overall, Washington is just 12-16 at home where they own a -1.6 point differential on the season.  We’ll take Detroit plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play PISTONS (+).

California comes into tonight’s game at Washington with a 17-8 record, but 16 of those wins have come on their home court.  The Golden Bears are just 1-6 in true road games this season, including 0-5 in conference road games.  California’s defense is allowing 71.4 points per game on the road this season.  But their recent conference road opponents haven’t been able to take full advantage of that poor defense because those teams wanted to play slow, half-court basketball.  That won’t be the case tonight against Washington who prefers to play a fast, up-tempo style of basketball.  California will not keep Washington’s offense below 70 points in this game, especially with the game being on the Huskies’ home court.

Washington is just 2-4 over their last six games, but four of those games came on the road.  The Huskies return home off back-to-back road losses, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Washington is averaging 88.2 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field at home this season.  The Huskies will get their preferred fast pace against a poor California defense, so we expect a strong offensive performance in tonight’s game.  Washington’s defense is only allowing 40.3% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a big performance by Washington here, so we’ll back the Huskies in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play WASHINGTON (+).

Wisconsin has been a major surprise this season as the Badgers come into tonight’s game at Michigan State with a 16-9 record.  Wisconsin was supposed to be in a rebuilding season after making the Final Four last season, and head coach Bo Ryan retiring, but the team has caught many of their opponents off guard.  Wisconsin is on a 7-game winning streak, but five of those opponents were bad teams.  The Badgers are in a terrible situational spot for tonight’s game as they come in off a 70-57 win at Maryland as 8.5-point underdogs on Saturday night.  Wisconsin shot 46.2% (12-26) from three-point land, but it’s highly unlikely they’ll repeat that performance in this game.  The Badgers beat Michigan State 77-76 earlier this season, but the difference in that game was Wisconsin being +17 points at the free throw line and +20 attempts.  Despite those big edges, the Badgers trailed by 4 points with less than a minute to play before getting a fortunate 1-point win on their home court.

Michigan State is 21-5 on the season, including an 11-2 mark at home where they own an excellent +20.1 point differential.  The Spartans play outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 57.8 points per game on 35% shooting from the field and 27.8% shooting from three-point land.  Michigan State’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 77.9 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Michigan State is playing with legitimate revenge, so they will bring their best effort, and since they are catching Maryland in a terrible spot, we’ll lay the points with the Spartans in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

NC Wilmington comes into tonight’s game at William & Mary with a 20-5 record.  The Seahawks have been dominant at home, but that wasn’t the case when they hosted William & Mary last month.  NC Wilmington needed overtime to beat the Tribe 97-94; William & Mary played that game without their second leading scorer, Daniel Dixon, who averages 13.5 points per game.  NC Wilmington shot 54.1% (33-61) from the field and 48.1% (13-27) from three-point land in that game, and they only won by 3 points in overtime on their home court.  That’s not a good sign for the rematch tonight, especially since the Seahawks have to play this game on the road where their defense is giving up 74.2 points per game on 43.5% shooting from the field and 33.9% shooting from three-point land.

William & Mary returns home off a 99-82 blowout loss at Towson on Saturday afternoon.  The Tribe also lost their previous home game, so we expect a peak performance in this game.  William & Mary is 11-2 at home where they own a solid +9.1 point differential on the season.  The Tribe’s defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to 40.5% shooting from the field and 28.8% shooting from three-point land.  William & Mary’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 78.1 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land.  William & Mary is in a terrific spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Tribe in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play WILLIAM & MARY (-).

Colorado comes into tonight’s game at USC with a 19-7 record, but 14 of those wins have come on their home court.  Colorado is just 4-4 in true road games with those four losses coming by an average of 12.5 points per game.  Three of their four losses have come by double digits, so the Buffaloes have not been a competitive bunch in their away games.  Colorado is in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Buffaloes come in off three consecutive close games; they lost by 4 points to Oregon State, they beat Washington State in overtime, and they beat Washington by a single point.  Now they must hit the road where their defense is giving up 74.5 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from the field. 

USC returns home off back-to-back road losses at Arizona State and at Arizona.  The Trojans are a perfect 14-0 at home where they own an excellent +17.7 point differential on the season.  USC’s defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to just 38.3% shooting from the field and 28% shooting from three-point land.  The Trojans’ offense has been outstanding at home where they are averaging 87.1 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  USC is in a terrific spot for a big bounce win, so we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Syracuse is 8-1 over their last nine games, but the Orange have played an extremely easy schedule over that span.  Syracuse’s wins have come against the likes of Wake Forest twice, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Georgia Tech.  They were supposed to win those games because they are superior to those opponents.  However, the Orange only beat Georgia Tech by 3 points, and they needed overtime to beat Virginia Tech.  Both of those games came on their home court, so the close results are unimpressive.  Syracuse will now play a back-to-back road set while taking a monumental step-up in class.  The Orange offense has struggled away from home all season; Syracuse is only averaging 67.3 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 38.8% shooting from three-point land on the road.

Louisville returns home off back-to-back road losses at Duke and at Notre Dame.  The Cardinals were competitive in both of those defeats as they only lost by 7 and 5 points.  Off those losses, we expect a peak performance tonight, especially since Louisville is 15-1 at home where they own an exceptional +25.8 point differential on the season.  The Cardinals’ defense has been excellent at home as they are holding opponents to just 55.1 points per game on 35.8% shooting from the field and 26.6% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 80.9 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville is in a good spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play LOUISVILLE (-).

Mississippi is 3-1 over their last four games, but they are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at Texas A&M.  The Rebels come in off five consecutive big games with their last culminating in a 76-60 home win over Arkansas.  Prior to that game, Mississippi played three of four games on the road.  The Rebels lost by 5 points at Kansas State, won by 3 points at Missouri, and lost by 5 points at Florida.  Mississippi beat Vanderbilt as 2.5-point home underdogs in between those road games.  Now the Rebels must go back on the road and play their fourth road game over their last six games.  Mississippi’s defense has been poor on the road all season as they are giving up 73.6 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land.

Texas A&M returns home off back-to-back road losses at LSU and at Alabama.  The Aggies have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance in this game.  Texas A&M is 13-1 at home where they own an excellent +18.1 point differential on the season.  The Aggies’ defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to just 63.3 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land.  Texas A&M’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 81.4 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land.  Texas A&M is in a terrific spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Aggies in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play TEXAS A&M (-).

Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Wisconsin-Green Bay will play for the second time this season.  In the first meeting, the Panthers won 95-94 on their home court.  The difference in that game was Wisconsin-Milwaukee’s edge at the free throw line where they were +12 points (23-11) and +15 attempts (33-18).  The Panthers won’t get a favorable whistle in tonight’s game, especially since they’ll be playing on Wisconsin-Green Bay’s strong home court.  Wisconsin-Milwaukee is also in a tough scheduling spot for tonight’s game as they will be playing their fifth consecutive road game over a 12-day span.  The Panthers have gone just 1-3 over their last four games with their defense allowing 75, 80, and 84 points in those games.

Wisconsin-Green Bay finally returns home after playing a grueling 5-game road trip over a two-week span.  In fact, the Phoenix have played ten of their last twelve games away from home.  Wisconsin-Green Bay is 7-2 on their home court this season where their offense has been incredible.  The Phoenix are averaging 85.7 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.  Wisconsin-Green Bay will be facing a Wisconsin-Milwaukee defense that is in terrible current form.  The Panthers’ defense has allowed 83.6 points per game on 50.8% shooting from the field and 43.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  This is a good spot for Wisconsin-Green Bay to get a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with Phoenix in this game on Monday night.

10* Play WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY (-).

USC has shocked the Pac 12 so far this season.  The Trojans come into tonight’s game at Arizona with an 18-6 record, including a 7-4 mark in conference play.  USC was picked to finish tenth in the Pac 12 over the summer because the team is loaded with youth and inexperience.  But the Trojans have overachieved thus far, and tonight’s game against a revenge-minded Arizona team will be an extremely difficult challenge.  USC will be playing on a back-to-back road set for the fifth time this season; they lost the second game of back-to-backs their four previous times.  And those games came against much lesser competition like Monmouth-NJ, Washington, and Oregon State.  The Trojans have lost their last three road games by an average of 10 points per game, and Arizona is a better team than all three of the opponents they played.  USC’s defense is allowing 78.6 points per game on the road this season.  

Arizona is on a 4-game winning streak after going just 3-4 over their previous seven games.  One of those losses came at USC when the Trojans won 103-101 in overtime.  That was a terrible spot for the Wildcats as they were playing their third straight road game while coming off a close loss at UCLA.  Despite the poor spot, Arizona only lost by 2 points on USC’s home court.  The difference in that game came at the free throw line where USC was +15 points (26-11) and +17 attempts (33-16).  The Trojans won’t get a favorable whistle in tonight’s game, especially since they’ll be playing on Arizona’s strong home court.  The Wildcats are 13-1 at home where they own an incredible +20 point differential this season.  Arizona is averaging 83.9 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land.  The Wildcats’ defense is holding opponents to just 63.9 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Arizona in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play ARIZONA (-).

Colorado State comes into tonight’s game at UNLV with a 14-10 record, but ten of those wins have come on their home court.  The Rams are 3-4 in true road games this season, but they’ve been fortunate while facing teams that play their style of basketball.  Colorado State’s defense is allowing 78.6 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field on the road this season.  But their recent conference road opponents haven’t been able to take full advantage of that poor defense because those teams wanted to play slow, half-court basketball.  That won’t be the case tonight against UNLV.  Colorado State beat UNLV 66-65 on their home court earlier this season, but that’s unimpressive considering the Rebels have won just one game all season when held to less than 70 points.  The Rams will not keep UNLV’s offense below 70 points in this game, especially with the game being on the Rebels’ home court.

UNLV snapped their 3-game losing streak with a 64-61 home win over San Jose State on Wednesday night.  The Rebels won that game despite facing a slow pace and terrible shooting.  UNLV hit just 29.4% (20-68) from the field and 20% (4-20) from three-point land.  The Rebels’ offense is too good to play that bad again, especially at home.  UNLV is averaging 77.5 points per game at home this season.  The Rebels will get their preferred fast pace against a poor Colorado State defense, so we expect a much better offensive performance in tonight’s game.  UNLV’s defense is only allowing 67.6 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a peak performance by UNLV here, so we’ll lay the points with the Rebels in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play UNLV (-).

Gonzaga is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at SMU with a 20-5 record.  The Zags have been blowing teams out as of late, but tonight’s game against the Mustangs will be their toughest game since playing Arizona way back in early December.  Gonzaga is simply in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game at SMU.  The Zags are playing a meaningless out-of-conference road game in the middle of their West Coast schedule against a very good team that is looking to avenge their 16-point loss at Gonzaga last season.  The Zags are also playing their fourth consecutive road game, and they are doing so over a 10-day span.  Gonzaga is also playing their sixth road game over their last eight games overall, and with tonight’s result being inconsequential to their season, it’s hard to imagine the Zags being at their best for this game.

SMU is having a tremendous season as they come into this game with a 20-3 record.  The Mustangs are 12-1 at home where they own an excellent +18.6 point differential.  SMU lost their last home game 82-77 to Tulsa on Wednesday night.  That was the Mustangs’ worst defensive home performance of the season, and their second worst overall.  SMU plays outstanding defense, especially on their home court where they only give up 62.7 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  SMU’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 81.3 points per game on 50.9% shooting from the field and 41.5% shooting from three-point land.  SMU is banned from post-season play, so this is like a tournament game for them.  The Mustangs will bring their best effort, and since they are catching Gonzaga in a terrible spot, we’ll lay the points with SMU in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play SMU (-).

Texas has been a major surprise this season as the Longhorns come into tonight’s game at Iowa State with a 16-8 record.  The most surprising part of their record is the fact that Texas has been without their best player, Cameron Ridley, since mid-December with a foot injury.  The Longhorns were supposed to be in a rebuilding season under new head coach Shaka Smart, but the team has caught many of their opponents off guard.  Texas is 7-2 over their last nine games, but they are in a terrible situational spot for this game.  The Longhorns come in off a last second 63-60 loss at Oklahoma on Monday night after blowing a 9-point halftime lead.  Now they must play back-to-back conference road games for just the second time this season; they lost 76-67 the last time they were in this situation.  Texas needed overtime on their home court to beat Iowa State 94-91 earlier this season despite shooting 48.6% (36-74) from the field and being +21 points from three-point land. 

Iowa State returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being an 85-82 overtime loss at Texas Tech.  The Cyclones have played three of their last four games on the road, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance in this game.  Iowa State is 10-2 at home where they own an excellent +12.7 point differential on the season.  The Cyclones’ defense has been good at home as they are holding opponents to 42.5% shooting from the field and 34.9% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 85.8 points per game on 49.9% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State is in a terrific spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Cyclones in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play IOWA STATE (-).

Oregon is one of the hottest teams in college basketball as the Ducks are 13-2 over their last 15 games.  Overall, Oregon comes into tonight’s game at California with a 20-4 record on the season, but fifteen of those wins have come on their home court.  Oregon is just 3-3 in true road games, and they only own a +4.0 point differential away from home this season.  Oregon’s defense has been poor on the road, and they’ve allowed 70 points or more in four of their five conference away games.  Overall, the Ducks are giving up 73.8 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land.  Oregon beat California by just 3 points (68-65) earlier this season, but the Ducks hit 33.3% (7-21) from three-point land while the Golden Bears missed all 12 of their 3-point attempts.  Oregon was +21 points from beyond the arc, but they only won the game by 3 points on their home court.    

California is a perfect 14-0 at home this season.  The Golden Bears own a +15.8 point differential on their home court this season.  California’s offense is averaging 77.8 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Golden Bears’ defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 62 points per game on 36.4% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  California held Oregon to their lowest scoring output (68 points) in their last ten games; the Ducks shot just 40.7% (24-59) from the field on their home court.  This is a much bigger game for California, so we’ll back the Golden Bears in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CALIFORNIA (pick).

Golden State is obviously having a historical season as they come into tonight’s game in Phoenix with a 47-4 record.  The Warriors are a tough team to go against, but tonight presents a terrific opportunity to take a boatload of points in a game Golden State figures to go thru the motions.  Golden State hosted Houston last night in a nationally televised game.  The Warriors didn’t play their best basketball, but they rallied and out-scored the Rockets 30-17 in the fourth quarter to win the game by 13 points.  Five players logged 31 minutes or more, and another guy played over 28 minutes.  The Warriors used up a lot of energy last night, and now they have to hit the road and play the lowly Suns.  This is simply a game that Golden State will have little interest in, especially with their All-Star break beginning after tonight.   

Phoenix is having a miserable season, but they are in a terrific spot for tonight’s game against the Warriors.  The Suns will be playing their fifth consecutive home game, and they come in with a full day of rest.  Phoenix has lost their previous four home games, so this is a game they will bring their best effort, especially since they are playing Golden State.  The Suns have lost 17 games at home this season, but they would be 15-2 ATS in those games based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  Golden State hasn’t played with much defensive intensity recently; the Warriors have allowed 107.8 points per game over their last five games.  Golden State is simply in a poor spot, so we’ll take Phoenix plus the points in this game on Wednesday night. 

9* Play SUNS (+).

Missouri State comes into this game with a 10-14 record, but the majority of the Bears’ wins have come against mediocre competition.  Missouri State’s last two road games have been awful; they lost those games by a combined 28 points.  The Bears shot just 34.1% (43-126) from the field in those games, including 25% (7-28) from three-point land.  Missouri State’s offense has struggled away from home all season long.  The Bears are only averaging 61.6 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from the field.  Missouri State’s offensive struggles will continue tonight, especially since Northern Iowa’s defense is in excellent current form.     

Northern Iowa returns home off a dominating 16-point road win at Drake on Saturday.  That was the Panthers’ fourth consecutive win after losing their previous four games.  Northern Iowa’s recent uptick has head coach Ben Jacobsen feeling good about his team: “Guys are playing with some confidence again. We’ve just got a little different bounce in our step on offense, and we’ve got a different determination to us defensively. Right now, this is as close as we’ve been to having the entire group playing at a high level.”  Northern Iowa’s defense has been tremendous at home as they are only giving up 60.6 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Panthers on Wednesday night.   

10* Play NORTHERN IOWA (-).

Arkansas comes into tonight’s game at Mississippi State with just a 12-11 record.  The Razorbacks have won eleven of those games on their home court; they are just 1-6 in true road games this season.  Arkansas is in a terrible situational spot for this game as they are off five consecutive big games.  The Razorbacks lost by 3 points in overtime at Georgia, and then they beat Texas A&M by 3 points at home.  After that, Arkansas beat Texas Tech at home in overtime, and then they lost by 4 points at Florida.  But everything came together in their last game which resulted in an 85-67 home win over Tennessee after shooting 52.6% (30-57) from the field and 40.9% (9-22) from three-point land.  Now they must hit the road where they’ve struggled all season, especially on defense.  The Razorbacks are giving up 80.7 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land away from home this season.

Mississippi State returns home off a road loss at LSU on Saturday.  The Bulldogs also lost their previous home game in overtime, so we expect a strong performance here.  Mississippi State has played three of their last four games on the road, and six of their last nine games on the road.  A welcomed home game is much needed for the Bulldogs, and there’s a lot of motivation after losing 82-68 at Arkansas earlier this season.  In that game, the Razorbacks shot the lights out as they hit 50% (28-56) from the field and 66.7% (16-24) from three-point land.  That performance will not be repeated in this game as Mississippi State’s defense is giving up 69.5 points per game on 40.7% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll back Mississippi State in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (+).

Notre Dame is 16-7 on the season, but twelve of those wins have come on their home court.  The Irish come into this game off their biggest win of the season, an 80-76 win over North Carolina as 2.5-point home underdogs on Saturday.  Notre Dame shot the ball terribly in that game as they only hit 34.8% (23-66) from the field and 18.8% (3-16) from three-point land.  The Irish won that game at the free throw line where they were +15 points (31-16) on +17 attempts (38-21).  Notre Dame only won that game because of a favorable whistle, but with tonight’s game on the road, the Irish cannot rely on the power of their home court.  Notre Dame is just 3-3 in true road games with their average loss coming by 11.7 points per game.  When held to less than 70 points on the road, Notre Dame is just 1-3 with their losses coming by 2 points at Monmouth, 11 points at Virginia, and 15 points at Syracuse.    

Clemson returns home off three consecutive road games where they went just 1-2.  The Tigers have played four of their last five games on the road; their last home game came back on January 27th.  Overall, Clemson is 11-2 at home where they own a +14.2 point differential this season.  The Tigers’ defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 56.2 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land.  Notre Dame’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 76.8 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 38.6% shooting from three-point land.  With Notre Dame off their big win and facing the slow, half-court style of Clemson, this is a poor situational spot for the Irish.  We’ll lay the points with Clemson in this game on Monday night.

10* Play CLEMSON (-).

Los Angeles has played two games of their current 4-game East Coast road trip.  The Clippers just played a 5-game East Coast road trip over a 7-day span prior to playing three home games before this current trip.  Los Angeles is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Philadelphia, especially since they’ve won their first two games of this trip.  The Clippers won 100-93 in Miami on Sunday afternoon, but four guys played 32 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 34 minutes or more.  Prior to that game, the Clippers won in Orlando after shooting 54.1% (40-74) from the field.  Now Los Angeles will play the lowly 76ers who they pounded by 31 points (130-99) earlier this season.  The Clippers will have little focus on this game, especially with a trip back to Boston for Doc Rivers and Paul Pierce looming on Wednesday night.

Philadelphia is having a miserable season, but they are in a terrific spot for tonight’s game against the Clippers.  The 76ers won their last game at home, so they’ll ride some momentum into this game.  Philadelphia’s offense has been good in their recent home games, and in fact, they are averaging 101.8 points per game in their last four home games.  Los Angeles is allowing 100.5 points per game on 44.2% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Los Angeles is also playing a back-to-back road game for the eighth time this season; they are just 4-3 SU in those games, and a woeful 1-6 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Los Angeles is simply in a poor spot, so we’ll take Philadelphia plus the points in this game on Monday night. 

9* Play 76ERS (+).

Gonzaga is once again having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Pepperdine with an 18-5 record.  The Zags have been blowing teams out as of late, but tonight’s game against the Waves will be a huge challenge for Gonzaga.  The Zags will be playing a back-to-back road set with this also being their fourth road game over their last six games overall.  Aside from their 29-point waxing of a terrible Loyola Marymount team on Thursday night, Gonzaga’s road games have been close.  The Zags won by 2 points at Santa Clara, they needed overtime to win at San Francisco, they lost at St. Mary’s, and they only won by 10 points at a poor Pacific team.  Overall, Gonzaga’s defense is giving up 70.8 points per game on the road this season.

Pepperdine comes into this game with a 14-9 record, including a terrific 9-1 record on their home court.  The Waves are off back-to-back losses with their last being a 73-70 home loss to Portland on Thursday night.  Pepperdine’s offense was awful in that game as they only shot 37.3% (25-67) from the field, 18.8% (3-16) from three-point land, and 45.9% (17-37) from three-point land.  That was their worst offensive performance at home this season.  Overall, Pepperdine’s offense is averaging 73.1 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home.  The Waves’ defense is only allowing 66.4 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 27.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a peak performance by Pepperdine here, so we’ll take the Waves plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play PEPPERDINE (+).

Chicago played last night in Denver, and the Bulls blew an 18-point lead in the second half to lose 115-110.  Chicago got out-scored 42-21 in the fourth quarter, and they allowed the Nuggets to make their second biggest comeback in the second half in team history.  The Bulls not only lost the game on the court, but they also lost their best player, Jimmy Butler, to a knee injury.  Butler will miss tonight’s game according to reports.  This is a terrible scheduling and situational spot for Chicago.  The Bulls are playing on a back-to-back road set with this also being their sixth consecutive road game over a 10-day span.  Chicago will also be playing their fifth game in seven nights, and after the way they lost last night in Denver, it’s highly unlikely the Bulls will come with their best effort here.

Minnesota returns home off a 4-game road trip with their last being an impressive 108-102 win in Los Angeles against the Clippers.  The Timberwolves have been home since Thursday, so they’ve had two full days off to rest and prepare for tonight’s game.  Over their last five games, Minnesota’s offense has been in terrific current form.  The Timberwolves have averaged 105.8 points per game on 51% shooting from the field in those games.  Chicago’s defense has been poor recently as they’ve allowed 106.6 on 45.7% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Minnesota is catching Chicago at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Timberwolves in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Florida has been a surprise this season as they come into today’s game at Kentucky with a 15-7 record.  The Gators weren’t expected to be much after losing a lot of talent and head coach Billy Donovan to the NBA.  They’ve caught many opponents off guard, but after their last few games, Florida has come out from under the radar.  Florida is in a terrible situational spot for this game as they are off three consecutive big games.  The Gators lost by a single point at Vanderbilt as 4.5-point underdogs, then they waxed West Virginia by 17 points as 1-point home underdogs, and then they beat Arkansas at home by 4 points as 7.5-point favorites.  Now they must hit the road where they are just 2-5 in true road games this season.  Florida’s offense is only averaging 63.1 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Kentucky returns home off back-to-back road losses at Kansas and at Tennessee.  The Wildcats lost to the Jayhawks in overtime, and they blew a 21-point lead against the Volunteers.  Off those losses, we expect a strong performance here, especially since Kentucky is a perfect 12-0 on their home court where they own an incredible +17.4 point differential.  Kentucky’s offense is averaging 80.2 points per game on 50.3% shooting from the field at home this season.  The Wildcats’ defense is only giving up 62.8 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 28.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Kentucky is in a prime spot for a big blowout win, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play KENTUCKY (-).

Los Angeles’ 4-game winning streak was snapped on Wednesday night when they lost at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves.  The Clippers just completed a 3-game home stand after playing a 5-game East Coast road trip where they went 3-2 over a 7-day span.  Now the Clippers must hit the road again tonight, and it will begin another 4-game East Coast road trip.  This is a terrible scheduling spot for the Clippers, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll come with their best effort in this game.  Two of Los Angeles’ three recent road wins have come by just 2 points apiece.  Overall, the Clippers have allowed 101.1 points per game on 44.5% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Orlando is just 2-14 over their last 16 games played, but the Magic have been a competitive team recently.  The Magic were routinely losing games by 15 to 20 points at the beginning of their downswing, but over their last few games, Orlando has lost close games; five of their last seven losses have come by single digits.  The Magic are playing with a lot of confidence right now despite losing games, and that makes them a dangerous underdog.  Orlando has played five of their last six games on the road; their lone recent home game resulted in a 119-114 win over Boston last Sunday night.  Overall, Orlando is 13-10 at home where they are averaging 101.9 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land.  Orlando is catching Los Angeles at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Friday night. 

10* Play MAGIC (+).

Utah was mired in a 1-3 slump going into their earlier home meeting against Oregon State.  The Utes won that game 59-53 and they haven’t lost since, going a perfect 5-0 over their last five games.  Utah needed a big comeback in that game as they trailed Oregon State by 14 points on their home court.  The game was also tied at 52 apiece with just three minutes left to play before Utah ended the game on a 7-1 scoring run.  Utah will now face Oregon State on the road where they are just 3-3 in true road games this season with one win coming by 5 points in overtime and another win coming by just 2 points.  Utah’s offense is only averaging 67.3 points per game on 44.2% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Oregon State returns home off back-to-back road losses at Arizona and at Arizona State.  Off those two losses, we expect a strong performance here, especially since Oregon State is 8-3 on their home court this season; two of their home losses have come by just 6 points apiece.  Oregon State’s offense is averaging 75.4 points per game on 45% shooting from the field at home this season.  The Beavers’ defense is only giving up 68.7 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll back Oregon State in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play OREGON STATE (+).

Maryland is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at Nebraska with a 19-3 record.  The Terrapins have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Cornhuskers is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Maryland.  The Terrapins will be playing a back-to-back road set with this also being their third road game over their last four games overall.  Maryland hasn’t been as dominant in true road games either where they are just 3-3 this season; they won by 5 points at Oklahoma State, and they only won by 3 points at Wisconsin.  Overall, the Terrapins’ defense is giving up 68.8 points per game on the road this season.

Nebraska comes into this game with a 12-10 record.  The Cornhuskers have played three of their last four games on the road with their last being a loss at Purdue.  Nebraska also lost their previous home game, so we expect a peak performance in this game, especially since they gave Maryland fits in both games last season.  Maryland only beat Nebraska by 4 points on their home court, and by just 3 points on Nebraska’s home court.  The Cornhuskers’ offense is averaging 75.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Nebraska’s defense is only allowing 65.1 points per game on 42.4% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  We expect a peak performance by Nebraska here, so we’ll take the Cornhuskers plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play NEBRASKA (+).

Orlando is just 2-13 over their last 15 games played, but the Magic have been a competitive team recently.  The Magic were routinely losing games by 15 to 20 points at the beginning of their downswing, but over their last few games, Orlando has lost close games; four of their last six losses have come by single digits.  The Magic got their confidence back with an important home win over the Celtics two games back.  Orlando’s loss in San Antonio can easily be forgiven as the Spurs went into that game off an embarrassing effort against Cleveland.  Now the Magic will play in Oklahoma City against a team they match-up with extremely well.  Orlando is 6-1 ATS versus the Thunder in their last seven meetings, including a 139-136 defeat earlier this season.  The Magic led that game by 16 points in the fourth quarter before the Thunder forced overtime.       

Oklahoma City comes into this game from the opposite end of the spectrum.  The Thunder have won four straight games, and they are 11-1 over their last 12 games overall.  However, Oklahoma City has not won many of those games by big margins.  In fact, five of their last seven wins have come by single digits.  Oklahoma City’s defense comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Thunder have allowed 113.4 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Orlando’s offense has averaged 101.4 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Orlando matches-up well with Oklahoma City, so we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Wednesday night. 

9* Play MAGIC (+).

South Carolina has an impressive 19-2 on the season, but twelve of those wins have come on their home court.  The Gamecocks are just 3-2 in true road games this season with one win coming by 6 points and another win coming by just 3 points in overtime.  Overall, South Carolina has played the #116th rated schedule this season, so the majority of their wins have come against inferior opponents.  To compare, Georgia has played the #41st rated schedule this season.  South Carolina’s defense is giving up 70.6 points per game on 38.4% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  In their last three road games, the Gamecocks have allowed 73 points or more while going 1-2 with their lone win coming in overtime.  

Georgia returns home off back-to-back road losses at LSU and at Baylor.  The Bulldogs were competitive in both games as they only lost by 4 points to the Tigers and by 10 points to the Bears.  Off those losses, we expect a strong performance here, especially since Georgia is 10-3 on their home court this season; two of their home losses have come by just 2 points apiece.  Georgia’s offense is averaging 71.7 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Bulldogs’ defense is only giving up 66.4 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  We’ll back Georgia in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play GEORGIA (+).

Toronto comes into this game on an 11-game winning streak, but the Raptors have played a ridiculously easy schedule during that span.  Toronto played just one Western Conference team in those eleven games, and they also played their last seven games at home.  The Raptors will now hit the road for the first time since January 14th, and they will play their first road game outside of the eastern time zone since December.  Toronto was deep into a set routine from being at home for so long, but now that has been disrupted, so they are in a bad situational spot for tonight’s game in Denver, especially since they will be playing in the thin air and altitude.  The Raptors only own a +2.5-point differential on the road this season; they own a +4.9-point differential overall.  Toronto is only 13-9 on the road compared to 18-6 at home, so a road game after a string of home games makes this a bad scheduling spot for the Raptors.

Denver returns home off three consecutive road games with their last being a 109-105 overtime loss at Indiana.  The Nuggets also lost their previous home game, so we expect a peak performance in this game tonight.  Denver’s offense comes into this game in terrific current form as they’ve averaged 106.8 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field over their last five games.  The Nuggets are 4-4 in their last eight home games, but three of their four losses only came by 1, 3, and 6 points.  Denver has been an ultra competitive team this season, especially when playing playoff-bound teams.  The Nuggets won 106-105 in Toronto back in December, and we expect another close game throughout.  We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Monday night.

10* Play NUGGETS (+).

Boston and Orlando just played on Friday night with the Celtics winning 113-94 on their home court.  That game was much different than the first meeting of the season in Orlando when the Magic won 110-91 after shooting 48.4% (45-93) from the field while out-scoring the Celtics 52-38 inside the paint.  Orlando also had a 54-34 rebounding edge in that game, including 17-9 on the offensive glass.  The game on Friday night was close for the first three quarters before Boston out-scored Orlando 27-17 over the final 12 minutes of the game.  Boston’s bench played well above their level in that game as the second unit combined to score 60 points on 65.6% (21-32) shooting from the field, including 70% (7-10) from three-point range.  It’s highly unlikely Boston’s bench will repeat that performance in tonight’s game, especially with this game coming on the road against the same opponent.      

Orlando has been struggling as of late, but the Magic desperately need to win this game tonight in order to keep pace with Boston for a playoff spot.  Going into Friday’s game, the Magic were treating the 2-game set against the Celtics like playoff games.  “These games, direct where you can pick up a game on a team in front of you, are critical,” said Orlando head coach Scott Skiles.  Orlando came with a poor defensive performance on Friday night, but the Magic are capable of shutting the Celtics down just as they did in the first meeting.  Orlando held Boston to just 40.9% (36-88) shooting from the field and 18.5% (5-27) shooting from three-point land while winning by 19 points on their home court.  This is an ultra-important game for Orlando, and with quick turnaround revenge, we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Sunday night. 

10* Play MAGIC (+).

San Diego State is one of the hottest teams in the country right now.  The Aztecs have won 8 consecutive games, including four games on the road.  San Diego State plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Aztecs play at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with a solid defense that is holding opponents to just 60.2 points per game on 36% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land this season.  San Diego State is 6-0 against UNLV in the last six meetings, and that’s because the Rebels are clueless when they are forced to play half-court basketball.

UNLV fired head coach Dave Rice six games ago, and Todd Simon is the current interim coach.  Since Simon took over, the Rebels have gone 5-1 with their lone loss being a 65-63 defeat at Nevada.  UNLV is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Rebels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, UNLV’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Rebels will not get their preferred style of play tonight against San Diego State.  The Rebels are 0-6 this season when held to less than 70 points, and with the posted total currently at 129, the oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring game.  That is the lowest total on a UNLV game this season; their previous low was 134.5 in a game they lost outright after scoring just 57 points.  San Diego State’s style will frustrate UNLV, so we’ll take the points with the Aztecs in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play SAN DIEGO STATE (+).

Oklahoma is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game at LSU with a 17-2 SU record.  The Sooners have been terrific on both ends of the court, but tonight’s game against the Cyclones is simply a terrible situational spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma.  The Sooners are playing a meaningless out-of-conference road game in the middle of their Big 12 schedule against a good team that needs a signature win to build their resume for March.  Oklahoma will be playing on the road for the third time in four games, and this will also be their fifth road game over their last eight games.  The Sooners haven’t been as dominant on the road either where they are just 4-2 SU this season; they survived by 2 points at Oklahoma State, they won by 3 points at Hawaii, and they only won by 6 points at Memphis.  Overall, the Sooners’ defense is giving up 82.3 points per game on the road this season.

LSU is having a decent season as they come into this game with a 13-7 SU record overall, however they are 9-4 SU the past 13 games with shooting guard Keith Hornsby (13.2 ppg, 50% FG) back in the lineup.  The Tigers are 11-1 SU at home where they own an excellent +12.9 point differential on the season.  LSU’s offense has been phenomenal at home where they are averaging 86.4 points per game on 51.5% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land.  LSU really needs a big win over a highly ranked opponent to boost their credentials for the NCAA tournament, and this game against Oklahoma provides the Tigers with a tremendous opportunity to get a signature win.  This non-conference game is much more important for LSU than Oklahoma.  Look for a peak performance by the Tigers in this home game today.

9* Play LSU (+).

Washington surprised us on Thursday night when they won 87-85 at UCLA.  But we have no hesitation in playing against the Huskies once again in today’s game at USC.  Washington’s defense has been atrocious on the road this season, and it’s a fluke that they have a 3-1 record in true road games.  The Huskies are giving up 90.8 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 40.8% shooting from three-point land.  Washington beat USC 87-85 at home earlier this season, but the Huskies got extremely lucky to win that game.  The Trojans led by 22 points in the second half before Washington made a furious rally to win.  USC out-shot the Huskies 47%-33.3% from the field and 47.1%-36% from three-point land, and that game was on Washington’s home court.  

USC snapped their 2-game losing streak with an 81-71 win over Washington State in their last home game.  Their previous two losses both came on the road on the backend of their fourth and fifth road games over a 7-game stretch.  USC is a perfect 12-0 at home where they own an incredible +18.2 point differential this season.  The Trojans are averaging 86.8 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 41.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  USC’s defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 38.8% shooting from the field and 28.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Trojans are catching Washington at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with USC in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play USC (-).

Orlando has been struggling as of late, but the Magic are in a good spot for a very important game tonight in Boston.  The Magic have had two full days to prepare for this game; one they are treating like a playoff game.  “These games, direct where you can pick up a game on a team in front of you, are critical,” said Orlando head coach Scott Skiles.  “We’re only three out of the playoffs. To pick up a game on a night like tonight would be big for us. We need to put a nice quality win in our belt.”  Orlando already beat Boston this season; the Magic romped in a 110-91 home win back in late-November.  It was one of the Magic’s best performances of the season; they held Boston to just 40.9% (36-88) shooting from the field and 18.5% (5-27) shooting from three-point land.

Boston is playing good basketball right now, but the Celtics have had an easy schedule as of late.  Wins over struggling teams like the Wizards, Suns, and Nuggets don’t mean much at all.  Boston head coach Brad Stevens is concerned with tonight’s matchup, especially after the way the Celtics lost the first meeting.  “When we went down there, we got pounded,” Stevens said.  “The way I look at it, when a team beats you and you played them once, they’re a lot better than you are.”  Boston allowed Orlando to shoot 48.4% (45-93) from the field, and the Magic out-scored the Celtics 52-38 inside the paint.  Orlando also had a 54-34 rebounding edge, including 17-9 on the offensive glass.  Orlando is simply a bad match-up for Boston, so we’ll take the Magic plus the points in this game on Friday night. 

10* Play MAGIC (+).

Washington is having a much better season than projected as the Huskies come into this game with a 13-6 record.  The Huskies are off an 80-75 home loss to Utah on Sunday night.  Washington was 4-point underdogs in that game, and after rallying late to tie the game, they came up short in overtime.  That was their third overtime game in their last seven games, and that loss may linger for awhile.  Washington now takes to the road where their defense is giving up 93 points per game on 51.6% shooting from the field and 43.6% shooting from three-point land.  Washington beat UCLA 96-93 in overtime at home earlier this season.  The difference in that game came from three-point land where the Huskies were +24 points after making 11 three’s to just 3 made three’s for the Bruins.  Despite that, Washington only won the game by 3 points in overtime.

UCLA is just 1-2 over their last three games, but they played two of those games on the road.  The Bruins return home off a road loss at Oregon, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a strong bounce back performance here.  UCLA is 9-2 at home where they are averaging 81.5 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 38.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Bruins’ defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 40% shooting from the field and 33.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Bruins are in an excellent bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with UCLA in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play UCLA (-).

Ohio State is 13-8 on the season, but eleven of those wins have come on their home court.  The Buckeyes are just 1-4 in true road games this season with their average loss coming by a whopping 23.7 points per game.  Overall, Ohio State has played the #97 rated schedule this season, so the majority of their wins have come against inferior opponents.  The Buckeyes did beat Illinois earlier this season, but they only won that game by 2 points (75-73).  Ohio State won that game at the free throw line as they were +19 in points (28-9) and +28 in attempts (39-11).  Despite that, the Buckeyes only won the game by 2 points, and they won’t get the favorable home whistle in this game.  Ohio State’s offense is only averaging 61.8 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.

Illinois comes into this game off a 76-71 overtime win at Minnesota on Saturday night.  Off that win, we expect a strong home performance here, especially since the Illini lost their previous home game.  Illinois’ offense has played much better basketball at home where they are averaging 77.7 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land this season.  Ohio State’s defense is giving up 78.2 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  We’ll back Illinois in this game on Thursday night.  

9* Play ILLINOIS (+).

Oregon State snapped their 3-game losing streak by beating USC as 2-point home underdogs on Sunday afternoon.  The Beavers scored 85 points in that game after shooting 47.1% (32-68) from the field and 85.7% (18-21) from the free throw line.  Oregon State shot terribly from the three-point line as they only hit 16.7% (3-18) from beyond the arc.  The only reason Oregon State won that game was due to USC simply having one of their worst offensive games of the season.  The Beavers won on the scoreboard, but they did nothing in that game to show that their recent funk is over.  Now they must take to the road where they’ve lost their last two conference games by a combined 23 points.  The Beavers’ offense is only averaging 63.8 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field on the road this season.  They only scored 53 and 54 points in their two conference road games.   

Arizona State has lost three straight games, and six of their last seven games overall.  However, the Sun Devils have played a brutal schedule during that span, including four of the seven games being on the road.  Arizona State returns home off back-to-back road losses, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Sun Devils’ offense has also been terrific at home this season where they are averaging 79.8 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona State is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Sun Devils in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play ARIZONA STATE (-).

Oklahoma City and Minnesota will play for the third time in 15 days on Wednesday night.  The Thunder won the first two games, but they only beat the Timberwolves by 5 points (101-96) in Minnesota.  The Thunder will play their fourth and final game of their current road trip tonight, and they’ll be doing so on a back-to-back set.  This will also be Oklahoma City’s fourth game in six nights.  The Thunder played in New York last night and they beat the Knicks 128-122 in overtime.  Four guys played 42 minutes or more with all five starters playing 35 minutes or more.  Oklahoma City scored 128 points last night; their third most points of the season after shooting 46.5% (46-99) from the field, 55% (11-20) from three-point land, and 86.2% (25-29) from the free throw line.  After playing a perfect game, and off a grueling overtime, we expect regression from Oklahoma City tonight.

Minnesota returns home off a 114-107 loss in Cleveland on Monday night.  The Timberwolves played much better than expected in that game, especially considering the Cavaliers were in a prime spot after an embarrassing loss in their previous game.  The Timberwolves have played three of their last four games on the road, so a welcomed home game against an opponent in a terrible spot gives Minnesota an excellent shot to steal a win.  The Timberwolves are 2-2 in their last four home games with their two losses only coming by 6 and 5 points.  Minnesota’s offense comes into this game in terrific current form; the Timberwolves have averaged 104.6 points per game on 49% shooting from the field over their last five games.  We’ll take the points with Minnesota in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Louisville is 16-3 on the season, but the Cardinals have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition.  Louisville has played the #149 rated schedule this season; the worst of any team ranked in the Top 25.  Some of their wins have come against the likes of Hartford, North Florida, St. Francis (NY), Grand Canyon, Kennesaw State, Utah Valley, and other no-names.  Louisville has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.  The Cardinals have been shaky on the road where they are just 2-3 in true road games this season.  Their two wins have come by just 5 points (77-72) at North Carolina State, and by 4 points (75-71) at Georgia Tech on Saturday.

Virginia Tech comes into this game off back-to-back losses with their last being a 75-70 home loss to North Carolina.  Off those two losses, we expect a strong bounce back performance here, especially since nine of the Hokies’ twelve wins have come at home this season.  Virginia Tech is holding their opponents to just 67.7 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville’s offense is only averaging 70.8 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 28.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Louisville has not won by big margins on the road this season, so we’ll take the points with the Hokies in this game on Wednesday night.  

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (+).

Indiana is 17-3 on the season, but the Hoosiers have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition.  Indiana has played the #143 rated schedule this season; the second worst of any team ranked in the Top 25.  Some of their wins have come against the likes of Eastern Illinois, Austin Peay, Alcorn State, Morehead State, McNeese State, Keenesaw State, and other no-names.  Indiana has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.  The Hoosiers’ defense has been terrible on the road where they are allowing 74.5 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 43.1% shooting from three-point land.  Indiana only beat Wisconsin 59-58 at home earlier this month despite out-shooting the Badgers 48.8%-41.3% from the field, 41.2%-25% from three-point land, and 100%-69.6% from the free throw line.   

Wisconsin struggled early as expected, but the Badgers have played much better basketball recently.  Wisconsin is just 7-6 over their last 13 games, but their six losses have come by a combined 18 points with four of their losses coming by 3 points or less.  Wisconsin is playing with a lot of confidence right now, and their home court is one of the strongest in all of college basketball.  The Badgers are holding their opponents to just 64.2 points per game at home this season.  Indiana’s offensive efficiency drops sharply on the road where they are scoring 10.6 points per game less while shooting 4.1% less from the field and 3.9% less from three-point land.  We expect another low-scoring defensive slugfest, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Tuesday night.  

9* Play WISCONSIN (+).

Creighton is having a much better season than projected as the Bluejays come into this game with a 14-6 record.  However, Creighton has played an easy schedule (ranked 97th) with wins over inferior teams like Texas Southern, UTSA, Rutgers, Western Illinois, North Texas, Coppin State, and others.  Creighton comes into this game off a 72-64 home win over Butler on Saturday night.  The Bluejays had to rally back in the second half to win despite Butler playing that game without two guards who missed because of injuries.  Creighton now takes to the road where their defense is giving up 76.3 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land.  Creighton beat Georgetown at home earlier this season, but the difference in that game came at the free throw line where the Bluejays were +18 points after a favorable home whistle gave them 25 free throw attempts to just 7 attempts for the Hoyas.     

Georgetown is just 1-2 over their last three games, but they played three of the best teams in the Big East, Villanova, Xavier, and Connecticut.  Overall, Georgetown has played the much tougher schedule (ranked 43rd) this season as well.  The Hoyas are now taking a step-down in class against Creighton in this game.  Georgetown comes in off a road loss, and a loss in their previous home game, so that ensures we’ll get a peak performance in this game.  Georgetown’s defense has been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 67.2 points per game on 37.9% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Hoyas are in an excellent bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with Georgetown in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play GEORGETOWN (-).

Minnesota is once again having a miserable season despite a roster full of young talent.  The Timberwolves are terribly coached, and that’s a major reason for their non-development.  Minnesota comes into this game off a rare win; they are just 3-15 over their last 18 games.  The Timberwolves have not won back-to-back games since mid-December, and they have little chance to win tonight’s game in Cleveland.  The Timberwolves have played little defense all season; they are giving up 102.8 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land.  On the road, Minnesota is allowing 103.7 points per game.  Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have given up 104.2 points per  game on 47.3% shooting from the field.  Minnesota’s second worst defensive game of the season came at home against Cleveland when the Cavaliers scored 125 points on them; the Timberwolves gave up 129 points to Golden State.

Cleveland fired head coach David Blatt prior to their last home game against Chicago.  The Cavaliers were embarrassed in their first game for Tyronn Lue; they lost 96-83 to the Bulls as 10.5-point home favorites.  Cleveland played their worst offensive home game of the season as they shot just 37.2% (35-94) from the field and 16.7% (4-24) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers also shot just 40.9% (9-22) from the free throw line.  Cleveland’s offense will play much better tonight, especially since they scored 125 in Minnesota earlier this season.  In that game, Cleveland shot 53.1% (43-81) from the field and 48.1% (13-27) from three-point land.  Cleveland had six players score in double figures in that game, and a repeat performance is likely tonight.  Cleveland is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Monday night.        

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Arizona is 14-3 on the season as they’ve combined an explosive offense with a shutdown defense.  The Cardinals have played back-to-back poor offensive games, but we expect a peak performance in this game.  Arizona is averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 22.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Cardinals’ offense has also travelled well this season as they are averaging 32.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play away from home.  Arizona’s defense has also played above average football this season.  The Cardinals are only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 21.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Arizona’s defense is only giving up 18.7 points per game on the road this season.    

Carolina is obviously a very good team with a 16-1 record, but this a bad matchup for the Panthers.  Carolina’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak collection of opposing offenses that only averaged 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  Against good offenses, the Panthers gave up 24 points to Seattle, 29 points to Green Bay, 38 points to New Orleans, and 35 points to the New York Giants.  Carolina’s offense also faced poor defenses that gave up 24.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play this season; Arizona’s defense is allowing 4.7 points per game less than the opponents the Panthers faced.  These two teams are even across the board, so we’ll take Arizona plus the points in the NFC Championship on Sunday night.      

9* Play CARDINALS (+).

New England played in Denver earlier this season, and the Patriots held a 21-7 lead in the fourth quarter before inexplicably losing 30-24 in overtime.  New England’s offense was less than 100% healthy with multiple offensive injuries in that game, so it was even more impressive they held a two touchdown lead after three quarters of play.  The Patriots are now back at full strength on offense, and as we saw last week, New England is an efficient team that is extremely difficult to stop.  Overall, the Patriots are averaging 28.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 23 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  New England is the best scheming team in the NFL, and quarterback Tom Brady has one of the quickest releases.  That ability negates Denver’s pass rush which in turn makes a short passing game very dangerous, especially with the Broncos’ best cover guy, Chris Harris, playing with an injured shoulder.  New England knows they’ll have little success running on Denver, so we expect to see the Patriots spread the Broncos out and dink and dunk their way downfield.

Denver beat Pittsburgh 23-16 last week, but the Broncos were fortunate.  The Steelers played without their top wide receiver and their top running back while quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has a bad throwing shoulder.  Despite that, Pittsburgh’s offense racked-up 396 yards of total offense in that game.  Denver’s offense was also facing a terrible Pittsburgh secondary that left receivers wide open, and despite that, QB Peyton Manning completed just 21 of his 37 passes for 222 yards.  Overall, Manning is completing just 57.4% (93-162) of his passes with a horrendous 1/8 touchdown/interception ratio at home this season.  The Patriots are only giving up 19.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Denver’s offense is only averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite facing defenses that allow 22.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  New England is the better team on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Patriots in the AFC Championship on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Maryland is having a terrific season as they come into this game with a 17-2 record.  However, the Terrapins are just 9-10 ATS which is a clear indicator that they are not a dominating team.  Maryland has played just the 92nd ranked schedule, so the poor pointspread record certainly raises some red flags.  Maryland’s last two conference road games were also close calls as they lost by 3 points at Michigan and they only won by 3 points at Northwestern.  Now they will be playing in one of the toughest gyms in the Big 10, and another shaky performance will result in a blowout loss.  Maryland is heavily reliant on their 3-point shooting as 30.3% of their points scored come from beyond the arc.  But the Terrapins will face an extremely difficult matchup here as Michigan State only allows 24.4% of the points scored on them to come from three-point land.   

Michigan State opened the season at 13-0, but the Spartans are just 3-4 over their last seven games.  They come into this game on a 3-game losing streak with two of those losses coming on their strong home court.  Michigan State will come with a peak performance here, and we expect them to snap their losing streak in a big way.  Michigan State’s defense has been excellent all season; they’ve held their opponents to just 55.5 points per game on 34.1% shooting from the field and 25.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Michigan State’s offense has also been terrific at home this season where they are averaging 75.5 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land.  Michigan State is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

Oklahoma State is just 10-8 on the season, but the majority of the Cowboys’ wins have come against the likes of Long Beach State twice, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Tennessee-Martin, Towson, Longwood, UMKC, and TCU.  Oklahoma State comes into this game off their biggest win of the season, an 86-67 win over Kansas as 9-point home underdogs.  That win was preceded by close games against Oklahoma and Texas.  Those three games culminated in a huge upset win, and it only sets the Cowboys to regress significantly in tonight’s game at Kansas State.  The Cowboys are the Big 12’s least experienced team, and they are playing without their best player, Phil Forte, who is out for the season with an elbow injury.  Oklahoma State is 0-3 in true road games with their average loss coming by 13 points per game.  

Kansas State is just 1-5 over their last six games, but three of those games came on the road.  The  Wildcats played Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Baylor during that span, so they are now taking a monumental step-down in class against Oklahoma State in this game.  Kansas State also lost their last home game, so returning home off a road loss ensures we’ll get a peak performance in this game.  Kansas State is 8-2 at home where they own a +12.3 point differential this season.  The Wildcats’ defense has also been terrific at home; they are holding opponents to just 64.9 points per game on 40% shooting from the field and 23.8% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma State is simply in a terrible spot for a young team, so we’ll lay the points with Kansas State in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play KANSAS STATE (-).

Louisville is 15-3 on the season, but the Cardinals have played absolutely nothing in terms of competition.  Louisville has played the #178 rated schedule this season; the worst of any team ranked in the Top 25.  Some of their wins have come against the likes of Hartford, North Florida, St. Francis (NY), Grand Canyon, Kennesaw State, Utah Valley, and other no-names.  Louisville has excellent numbers on both ends of the court, but they should considering the level of competition they’ve faced.  The Cardinals have been shaky on the road where they are just 1-3 in true road games this season.  Their lone win came by just 5 points (77-72) at North Carolina State.

Georgia Tech comes into this game off back-to-back losses with their last being a 78-77 home loss to Virginia Tech.  Off those two losses, we expect a strong bounce back performance here, especially since the Yellow Jackets are 9-2 at home this season.  Georgia Tech played their worst defensive home game of the season as they allowed 78 points to the Hokies, including 45 points in the second half.  Overall, Georgia Tech is holding their opponents to just 68.2 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field and 30.1% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville’s offense is only averaging 69.8 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field and 26.9% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Louisville only beat Georgia Tech 52-51 on this court last season, and we expect another low-scoring defensive slugfest, so we’ll take the points with the Yellow Jackets in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The Thunder come into this game on a 6-game winning streak, and they are 8-1 over their last nine games overall.  Oklahoma City has scored 101 points or more in 13 of their last 14 games; they scored 99 points in the lone game they failed to eclipse the century mark.  The Thunder are averaging 107.8 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field over their last five games.  Oklahoma City will face a Dallas defense that has given up 108 points or more in four of their last six games.  The Thunder have scored 104 points or more in their last seven meetings against Dallas, and there’s no reason to expect anything different in tonight’s game.

Dallas comes into this game off back-to-back overtime wins at home over the Celtics and Timberwolves.  But now the Mavericks are taking a huge step-up in class against Oklahoma City, and their good fortune will run out in this game.  Dallas’ offense is not in good current form; they’ve scored 98 points or less in regulation time over their last five games, and in seven of their last eight games overall.  The Mavericks are only averaging 95.8 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field and 30.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  That’s not good considering Oklahoma City’s defense has allowed just 91 points per game on 40.9% shooting from the field and 29.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Dallas is also battling nagging injuries to Dirk Nowitzki and Raymond Felton; both are listed as game-time decisions tonight.  Oklahoma City is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Thunder in this game on Friday night.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Memphis hits the road after playing six consecutive home games; the Grizzlies went 5-1 SU in those games, including a 91-84 win over Denver.  Memphis will be playing their first road game in 15 days, and they will be doing so in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  That’s not a good thing, especially for a team that has been cozy and comfy at home for the past two weeks.  The Grizzlies are also playing with a hobbled point guard; Mike Conley is dealing with a lingering achilles injury that has limited his explosiveness.  Conley is a liability on the court, especially on the defensive end against Denver who has two quick guards who can penetrate the lane while looking for easy baskets in transition.  In their last meeting, Memphis only won by 7 points at home despite out-shooting the Nuggets 44.4%-21.1% from three-point land; they were +12 in points from beyond the arc.

Denver will play the fifth game of their 8-game home stand tonight; the Nuggets have alternated wins and losses over their last four games.  Denver comes in off a 110-104 loss to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night.  The Nuggets’ offense struggled mightily in that game as they only shot 42.2% (35-83) from the field.  Denver’s problem in that game was rebounding as the Thunder grabbed 52 boards, including 16 offensive rebounds.  Denver is 0-13 this season when getting out-rebounded, but the Nuggets should dominate the glass tonight.  In the last meeting in Memphis, the Nuggets held a 59-43 rebounding edge, including a 19-11 edge on the offensive glass.  The Grizzlies have historically struggled in Denver; Memphis is 3-26 SU their last 29 visits to the Mile High City.  We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play NUGGETS (+).

USC has shocked the Pac 12 so far this season.  The Trojans come into this game at Oregon with a 15-3 record, including a 4-1 mark in conference play.  USC was picked to finish tenth in the Pac 12 over the summer because the team is loaded with youth and inexperience.  But the Trojans have overachieved thus far, and tonight’s game against a veteran Oregon team is an extremely difficult challenge.  USC will be playing on a back-to-back road set for just the third time this season; they lost the second game of back-to-backs their two previous times.  And those games came against much lesser competition like Monmouth-NJ and Washington.  The Trojans’ defense comes into this game in poor current form as well; they’ve allowed 81 points per game over their last five games.

Oregon returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 91-87 loss at Colorado.  The Ducks are a perfect 11-0 at home where they own a terrific +13.9 point differential this season.  Oregon is averaging 78.4 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field at home this season.  The Ducks’ defense has also been fantastic at home where they are holding opponents to just 64.5 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three-point land.  Oregon is a perfect 3-0 when playing off a loss this season, winning those games by an average of 12.7 points per game.  Oregon is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Ducks in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play OREGON (-).