Ohio State has played tremendous football this season, and they didn’t skip a beat in the Big 10 Championship Game event though they were playing with their third-string quarterback.  The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin 59-0 and earned their way into the college football playoffs.  Overall this season, Ohio State’s offense averaged 45.2 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  Those impressive offensive numbers came against a strong slate of defenses that allowed just 25.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Ohio State has an exceptional rushing attack that averaged 261 yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush.  That strong running game has opened up big plays downfield for Ohio State, and it has allowed their quarterbacks to throw for an incredible 9.2 yards per pass attempt this season.  The Buckeyes have fantastic offensive balance, and teams with such a profile are exceptional plays as underdogs.

Alabama went 12-1 SU this season, but the Crimson Tide weren’t as dominant as some of their previous teams.  Alabama won five games by 11 points or less with three of those wins coming by 7 points or less.  The Crimson Tide actually played a worse slate of defenses than Ohio State as their opponents allowed 25.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Buckeyes’ defense was better than Alabama’s opponents as they gave up just 21 points per game on 4.7 yards per play away from home this season.  The Crimson Tide only went 6-6 ATS this season, including a 1-2 ATS mark as a single digit favorite.  That lone spread cover was fortunate as it came against LSU when Alabama won 20-13 in overtime as a 6.5-point favorite.  These two teams are much closer than the point spread indicates, so we’ll take Ohio State plus the points in this national semifinal on Thursday night.   

9* Play OHIO STATE (+).

Florida State has been living on the edge all season, and we expect their good fortunes to come to an end in this game against Oregon.  The Seminoles are on a 29-game winning streak, but the biggest difference between this year’s team and last year’s team has been the close games.  Florida State blew out all their opponents last season; they won thirteen games by 14 points or more.  This season, Florida State has only won five games by 14 points or more with their other eight wins coming by an average of just 5.1 points per game.  The Seminoles have found ways to win games in which they trailed by double digits, and usually that’s a sign of a really good team.  But we have to take into account the opponents played, and frankly, Florida State’s opponents were a mixed bag of mediocre and bad teams.  If the Seminoles were as good as last season, close games would not have been against the likes of Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Louisville, Miami Florida, Boston College, Florida, and Georgia Tech.  All of those teams have name recognition, but none of them are close to being in the upper echelon of college football this season.

Oregon comes into this game like the Florida State of last season; the Ducks have steamrolled their opponents all year.  Eleven of Oregon’s twelve wins have come by 12 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping +28.8 points per game.  The Ducks have an explosive offense that averaged 46.3 points per game on an incredible 7.3 yards per play.  Those stellar offensive numbers came against a collection of defenses that allowed just 31.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Florida State’s defense was tremendous last season, but this year’s stop unit is significantly worse.  Away from home, the Seminoles gave up 30.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play despite playing a weak group of offenses that averaged just 26.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Florida State’s defense is definitely facing the best offense they’ve seen all season, and the Seminoles have virtually no chance at slowing down the Ducks.  We’ll lay the points with Oregon in this national semifinal game in the Rose Bowl. 

9* Play OREGON (-).

Minnesota and Missouri are evenly matched, so this game should be close throughout and come right down to the wire.  Missouri played the slightly tougher schedule, but the team’s overall efficiency statistics are just about even across the board.  Minnesota went 8-4 SU and a solid 7-4 ATS this season.  Three of their four losses came to TCU, Ohio State, and Wisconsin who went a combined 33-5 in the regular season.  Those three teams are simply superior to Minnesota; their other loss only came by 4 points at Illinois.  The Golden Gophers’ offense is better than perceived as they averaged 29.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that gave up 27 points per game on just 5.3 yards per play.        

Missouri surprised many by going 10-3 SU this season.  The Tigers figured to be down a few notches after losing a slew of talent from last year’s 12-2 team.  Despite the strong record, Missouri played in a lot of close games this season as six of their last seven wins came by 10 points or less with the average win only coming by 8.8 points per game.  It’s also interesting to note that Missouri was an underdog in seven of their last nine games of the season; they were favored against the two dregs of the SEC, Vanderbilt and Kentucky.  The Tigers’ offense underperformed this season as they only averaged 5.3 yards per play against defenses that allowed 5.4 yards per play.  That weak Missouri offense will face a good Minnesota defense that only gave up 23.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season.  Missouri also has a good defense, but Minnesota’s offense has scored 24 points or more in eleven of their twelve games this season.  We’ll take the points with Minnesota as this game comes right down to the wire.

9* Play MINNESOTA (+).

Creighton comes into this game with a 9-4 record, but the majority of those wins have come against inferior competition.  The Bluejays are a shell of the teams they’ve had in recent years that won 27, 28, and 29 games.  Creighton returns just one starter from last season’s team which featured National Player of the Year Doug McDermott who is now in the NBA.  The four players Creighton lost averaged 51 points per game, and that’s why their offense has struggled mightily this season.  Creighton is shooting just 43.2% from the field, and their offense will have a lot of trouble scoring in this game against a very good Providence defense that is only allowing 61.7 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field.  “I think our season has been one of inconsistency, which is somewhat typical when you have as many guys in new roles as we have,” Creighton head coach Greg McDermott said.  “I think we’re about where we could be. Providence will be a heck of a challenge for us.”

Providence is set to have a big season.  The Friars come into this game with a 10-3 record with one of those losses coming at Kentucky.  Providence has a fantastic offense that is averaging 70.6 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field.  Kris Dunn is their best player, and he and his teammates are ready for this game: “We’re really excited to finally be starting the Big East season,” Dunn said.  “As a team we’ve played great. We’re really focused and have great team chemistry right now.”  Providence head coach Ed Cooley also likes where his team is at right now.  “Mentally and physically we’re as prepared for a game as any since we’ve been here,” Cooley said.  Providence is simply the much better team, and with focus and motivation, we’ll lay the points with the Friars in this game on Wednesday night.    

9* Play PROVIDENCE (-).

Mississippi opened the season with seven straight wins before losing 10-7 in the last minute at LSU.  That loss lingered as the Rebels lost two of their next three games.  But Mississippi bounced back strong in their season finale which resulted in a 31-17 win over their rival Mississippi State.  That win gave the Rebels their confidence back, and with a month to prepare for TCU, we expect a big performance by Mississippi in this game.  The Rebels were excellent on both sides of the ball this season.  They averaged 30.4 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that allowed 25.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Mississippi’s defense was tremendous this season as they only gave up 13.8 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that averaged 29.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Rebels faced ten bowl teams this season, and they gave up just 16 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.     

TCU can’t be too happy that they are playing in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl.  The Horned Frogs were ranked #3 in the playoffs, but they got left out of the top 4 despite winning their season finale over Iowa State by a score of 55-3.  To make matters worse, this game is not even on New Year’s Day, and it comes with an early kick off.  TCU will likely be flat for this game, and that’s going to show on the defensive side of the ball.  Overall, the Horned Frogs only allowed 20.3 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  However, there are two areas in which they dropped significantly.  On the road, TCU’s defense allowed 26.2 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Against the seven bowl teams they faced, TCU allowed 24 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Those numbers clearly show the Horned Frogs’ defense was worse on the road against good competition.  TCU played five bowl teams over a stretch of six games and they gave up 36 points per game.  Mississippi also played the much tougher schedule, #6 versus #44, so the Rebels performed better against the tougher opponents.  The Big 12 has looked terrible while going 0-3 in bowl games so far, so we’ll take the points with the SEC-based Rebels in this early game on Wednesday afternoon.    

10* Play MISSISSIPPI (+).

Detroit has not played as expected this season.  The Pistons were slated to be one of the most improved teams in the NBA with Stan Van Gundy running the show, but that has yet to come to fruition.  However, it’s addition by subtraction for Detroit after they got rid of Josh Smith, who by many accounts, was taking the Pistons down single handily.  Since Smith’s departure, Detroit has played their best two games of the season with a 10-point win (119-109) over the Pacers at home and a 23-point win (103-80) over the Cavaliers on the road.  “I think it’s everybody being so unselfish,” said Brandon Jennings.  “Everybody’s making the extra pass, not just one guy out there making plays. When guys get in the post, they’re passing it back out. Guys are getting open shots. We’re being very unselfish.”  That quote speaks directly to the fact that Smith was a ball hog who prevented the Pistons from being a unified team on the court.

Orlando has more wins (13) than Detroit (7), but the Magic are not the more talented team.  The Magic have a weak roster by NBA standards, and they need perfect setups to win and be competitive.  Tonight’s home game against Detroit is anything but a perfect setup for Orlando, and in fact, it’s a terrible spot.  The Magic are playing on back-to-back nights after winning in Miami last night; they scored the last five points to win 102-101.  Orlando will be playing their fourth game in five nights after winning back-to-back road games as underdogs.  Orlando has a negative point differential over their last five games despite going 3-2 in those games.  Detroit has a positive point differential over their last five games despite going 2-3 in those games.  There’s a lot of value on Detroit in this game, so we’ll back them on Tuesday night.   

9* Play PISTONS (-).

Louisville flew well under the radar all season.  The Cardinals come into this game at 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS.  Louisville has been strong despite instability at the quarterback position.  Starter Will Gardner was lost for the season, and freshman Reggie Bonnafon played well in his place before he got injured.  Kyle Bolin came in and also played well; both Bonnafon and Bolin are slated to play in this game against Georgia.  That gives Louisville a nice edge since Georgia does not have much game film to devise a solid game plan.  Louisville’s success this season has been because of their terrific defense that is only giving up 20.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.  The Cardinals have put up those strong defensive numbers against offenses that are averaging 26 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Cardinals’ defense has actually played better away from home as they are only giving up 17 points per game on 4.3 yards per play on the road this season.  Louisville’s strong defense has allowed them to play close games as their three losses have come by a total of 19 points this season.           

Georgia also comes into this game with a 9-3 SU record.  The Bulldogs have obviously played the tougher schedule in the SEC, but they are definitely facing the toughest defense they’ve seen all season.  Overall, Georgia’s offense has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 26.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Bulldogs will take a big step-up in defensive class against Louisville in this game, especially since the Cardinals allow 6.4 points per game less than the opponents Georgia has faced.  The Bulldogs are without their longtime offensive coordinator Mike Bobo who left to take the head coaching job at Colorado State.  The Bulldogs’ offensive plays will be called by John Lilly who has never called plays before.  Georgia’s offense will also be facing their former defensive coordinator, Todd Grantham, who now holds the same position at Louisville.  The coaching match-ups definitely give Louisville a major edge in this game.  Georgia will also be without one of their best defensive players as Leonard Floyd is out due to an injury.  Reports out of Georgia’s camp say their defense is much weaker without Floyd because they have to run a different scheme, and it makes them extremely vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks.  Louisville QB Bonnafon is a tremendous runner, so his mobility gives the Cardinals another advantage.  We’ll take the points with Louisville in this game on Tuesday night.   

10* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Utah has won four of their last five games, and they have gone 7-2 ATS over their last nine games overall.  However, Utah has played an extremely weak schedule during that span with games against Miami (2x), Orlando, Charlotte, and Philadelphia.  When the Jazz played good to decent teams like New Orleans, San Antonio, and Washington, they lost.  Despite winning two of their last three games, Utah’s offense averaged just 90.3 points in those games.  They will be without Alec Burks tonight, and they won’t be competitive if their offense scores less than 100 points in this game.  Utah concluded a 6-game road trip on December 22nd, and then they had five days off and played at home last night which was an 88-71 win over a terrible Philadelphia team.  Now the Jazz have to take to the road and face a Los Angeles team off an ugly home loss to the Raptors yesterday afternoon.        

Los Angeles lost to Toronto 110-98 on Sunday, but the Raptors have a potent offense that can trade points with the Clippers, especially when Chris Paul has an off game like he did.  Paul scored just 10 points after shooting 25% (3-12) from the field.  Tonight’s matchup versus Utah presents Los Angeles with an excellent opportunity to bounce back with a big win, especially since Paul holds a huge matchup edge over Utah’s guards.  The Clippers lost for just the fourth time at home this season, and they’ve been strong when playing at home off a previous home loss.  Los Angeles is a perfect 3-0 while winning by an average of 15 points per game.  The Clippers already own two wins over the Jazz this season, including a 16-point road win last month.  We expect a big effort from Los Angeles, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night.    

9* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Texas and Arkansas were bitter rivals back in the old Southwest Conference, and with this game being played in Houston, Texas, we expect a huge crowd and an intense ballgame.  Texas obviously holds the site edge with this game being played in their home state, so we can expect the Longhorns to bring their best effort.  Texas went just 6-6 in their first year under head coach Charlie Strong, but the team has taken on the personality of their coach.  The Longhorns are a physical bunch that relies on their defense to win games.  Overall, Texas is allowing just 23.2 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  Those strong defensive numbers have come against a slate of potent offenses that average 33.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Longhorns played eight bowl teams this season, and their defense only allowed 27 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.   

Arkansas went 6-6 in their second year under head coach Bret Bielema.  The Razorbacks got national attention late in the season when they beat LSU and Mississippi by a combined score of 47-0 in back-to-back weeks.  Like Texas, the Razorbacks win with their defense as they are only giving up 20.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Arkansas’ defense will face their first true dual threat quarterback this season as Texas’ Tyrone Swoops has rushed for 495 yards on the year.  Arkansas hasn’t had to worry about a mobile quarterback this season, but Swoops’ ability to make plays with his legs could very well be the determining factor in this game.  The posted total on this game is low at 44 which indicates a defensive struggle.  That makes the points extremely valuable, and since Texas has a lot of motivation for this game, we’ll take the Longhorns plus the points on Monday night.  

9* Play TEXAS (+).

Clemson quietly went 9-3 this season with their three losses coming against Georgia, Florida State, and Georgia Tech.  Those three teams are a combined 32-6 on the season, so the Tigers can’t be ashamed of those losses.  Clemson’s quarterback situation has been in and out with Deshaun Watson and Cole Stoudt sharing the starts.  Watson got hurt twice with his latest being a season-ending ACL injury.  Stoudt played late in the year, and now he has had a full month to prepare for this game against Oklahoma.  The Tigers’ offense will be much more efficient, especially since their strong running game will open up passing plays downfield.  Clemson has run for 146 yards or more six times this season, and they averaged 37.8 points per game when doing so.  Oklahoma’s defense allowed 148 rushing yards or more four times this season, and the Sooners gave up 37, 26, 31, and 48 points in those games while going 1-3 SU with the lone win coming by just 5 points.  Overall, Clemson averages 30.1 points on 409 yards of offense per game this season; they’ve eclipsed those averages five times this season.  

Oklahoma played in the Sugar Bowl last season, and the Sooners pulled off a major upset when they beat Alabama 45-31 as 16.5-point underdogs.  Oklahoma was a preseason Top 5 team that failed to live up to their lofty expectations after going just 8-4 this season.  Now they find themselves playing in the lowly Russell Athletic Bowl; they can’t be too thrilled about this game.  Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight and running back Samaje Perine are both coming back from injury, and they will face a strong Clemson defense that is only allowing 17.6 points per game on 4.0 yards per play this season.  Oklahoma hasn’t faced a defense like Clemson’s all season, and it also doesn’t help that the Tigers’ defensive coordinator is Brent Venables who held the same position for the Sooners for 12 seasons under Bob Stoops.  That’s a nice edge for Clemson, especially since they’ve had a month to prepare.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Clemson on Monday night.  

9* Play CLEMSON (+).

Cincinnati won a big home game on Monday night against the Broncos, and we expect the Bengals to carry momentum into this game in Pittsburgh.  This game is for the division title, so we expect a close game throughout.  Cincinnati is playing with legitimate revenge after getting embarrassed at home three weeks ago when the Steelers beat them 42-21 as 3-point underdogs.  That game setup perfectly for Pittsburgh, and we had a Best Bet winner on them, so we were not surprised by the outcome.  Cincinnati actually led 21-17 going into the fourth quarter, so the final score was not indicative of how the game played out.  The Bengals have a good defense, and it’s actually been better on the road this season.  Cincinnati is only allowing 17.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play on the road this season.  

Pittsburgh has won and covered their last three games, including their win in Cincinnati.  Their other two games were against the Falcons and Chiefs who have struggled recently, so it’s not like the Steelers have been beating the best teams.  Pittsburgh has been all offense and no defense this season, especially at home.  The Steelers’ defense is giving up 25.9 points per game on an ugly 6.3 yards per play at home this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against a slate of weak offenses that only average 21.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s pass defense is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average just 6.7 yards per pass attempt.  The Steelers are just 3-3 ATS as a home favorite this season, so they’ve also failed to surpass point spread expectations.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Cincinnati on Sunday night. 

9* Play BENGALS (+).

Detroit and Green Bay are playing for the division title, so we can expect a true to form game this afternoon.  The Lions are 11-4 on the season, but three of their four losses have come on the road.  And none of those losses were pretty; 24-7 in Carolina, 14-6 in Arizona, and 34-9 in New England.  There are some common traits in those games that will be evident in this game in Green Bay.  The Lions’ offense was terrible in all three of those losses, and their defense got torched by the one good offense (Patriots) they faced.  Detroit gave up 29 first downs and 439 yards of offense in that game.  The Lions’ other road games have come against the dregs of the league: Jets, Vikings, Falcons, and Bears.  Overall, Detroit has faced a weak slew of passing offenses this season as their opponents have only averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt.  That will change here against one of the most potent passing offense in the NFL.       

Green Bay returns home off back-to-back road games in which their offense scored a total of 33 points.  The Packers have been unstoppable at home this season, and we expect them to expose the Detroit defense in this game.  Green Bay is averaging a whopping 41.1 points per game on 7.0 yards per play at home this season.  Those strong offensive numbers have come against a good collection of defenses that are only allowing 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Green Bay is throwing for an incredible 8.9 yards per pass attempt at home this season, so as mentioned above, the Lions are taking a major step-up in class in this game.  This is also a big revenge game for Green Bay after they lost 19-7 in Detroit earlier this season.  That was simply a terrible spot for the Packers, and Detroit scored on a fumble return and a safety in that game.  The Packers are the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.    

10* Play PACKERS (-).

Philadelphia has tanked down the stretch; the Eagles have lost three consecutive games and four of their last six games overall.  Last week’s loss in Washington knocked Philadelphia out of the playoffs, so today’s game in New York means absolutely nothing.  After winning four of his first five games, quarterback Mark Sanchez has reverted back to his old self.  Sanchez has played terrible football while failing to lead his team to any wins over the last three weeks.  And it doesn’t help that the Eagles’ defense has been torched for 89 points over the last three games.  Overall, the Philadelphia defense has been weak this season, especially on the road where they are giving up 26.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against offenses that only average 22.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.     

The New York Giants are closing the season in the opposite way of the Eagles.  The Giants have won and covered their last three games while out-scoring their last three opponents by a combined score of 97-50.  Over their last five games, New York’s offense has averaged 29.8 points per game while scoring 24 points or more in every game.  The Giants’ offense will continue their strong play, especially in their home finale against an Eagles’ defense that is not in good current form.  This is also a big revenge game for the Giants after they got embarrassed 27-0 in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football earlier this season.  These two teams are coming into this game from opposite directions, so we’ll back the hot and confident New York Giants in this early game on Sunday.

9* Play GIANTS (-).

Nebraska is a fragile team coming into this game against USC.  The Cornhuskers are extremely disappointed in the firing of head coach Bo Pelini, and his dismissal has caused friction between the players and the athletic department.  Nebraska will play tonight’s game under interim head coach Barney Cotton, and we do not expect the Cornhuskers to put much effort into this game.  Overall, Nebraska played a mediocre schedule this season, and once the competition got tougher, we saw some major chinks in the armor, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Nebraska gave up 30 points per game on 413 yards of offense against the eight bowl teams they faced this season.  USC will be the best offense Nebraska has faced this season, so the Cornhuskers’ defense will get lit-up in this game.  

USC went 8-4 during the regular season, and all four losses came against bowl teams.  They lost to Utah, and the Utes won their bowl game in a blowout; the other three teams have yet to play.  USC gets to play this game in their home state of California, and they will certainly have the crowd edge as San Diego is just over 100 miles from campus.  The Trojans are excited to play in this game, so we expect a big effort.  USC has a potent offense that is averaging 35.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 29.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Trojans also have a strong defense that allows just 23.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 31 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  USC is simply the better team on both sides of the ball, and since Nebraska is in a state of flux, we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Saturday night.   

9* Play USC (-).

Orlando has more wins (11) than Charlotte (10), but the Hornets are a significantly better team.  The Magic have a weak roster by NBA standards, and they need perfect setups to win and be competitive.  Tonight’s game in Charlotte is anything but a perfect setup for Orlando, and in fact, it’s a terrible spot.  The Magic led Cleveland for three quarters last night and they took a 4-point lead into the fourth quarter.  Orlando was then out-scored 27-14 over the final 12 minutes and lost 98-89.  The Magic shot 49.3% (36-73) from the field and 42.9% (9-21) from three-point land, and they still lost by 9 points even with Cleveland shooting just 41.2% (33-80) from the field and 26.7% (8-30) from three-point land.    

Charlotte also played and lost last night.  The Hornets got blown out in Oklahoma City by 23 points (98-75).  We lost on the Hornets, but we have no hesitation in backing Charlotte once again for all the same reasons.  Charlotte hit a low point with a 10-game losing streak, but since getting healthier, the Hornets have been playing their best basketball of the season.  Charlotte had won four straight games before last night’s loss, and they were 6-4 over their previous ten games.  Over their last five games, Charlotte is averaging 101.2 points per game while giving up just 91.6 points per game.  To compare, Orlando is averaging just 92.6 points per game while giving up 99.8 points per game over their last five games.  Charlotte is the better team by a wide margin, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday night.  

9* Play HORNETS (-).

Duke has a strong 9-3 record this season, but the Blue Devils played an extremely easy schedule.  In fact, Duke played the 81st schedule this season compared to Arizona State who played the 38th toughest schedule in the country this season.  Duke is playing in their third consecutive bowl game under head coach David Cutcliffe.  The Blue Devils are 0-2 in those games because their defense could not stop the opposing offenses; they gave up 48 points to Cincinnati in 2012 and last year they gave up 52 points to Texas A&M.  This season, Duke once again has a solid offense that is averaging 32.5 points per game, but a phony defense.  The Blue Devils have solid seasonal numbers on defense, but they’ve played an extremely weak group of offenses that only average 23.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Duke is taking a major step-up in offensive class against Arizona State in this game, and we expect the Blue Devils’ defense to get exposed.           

Arizona State also went 9-3 in the regular season, but the Sun Devils played in the much better conference.  Arizona State has a potent offense that is averaging 37 points per game this season.  The Sun Devils are well-balanced as they average 170.2 yards on the ground and 276.3 yards thru the air per game this season.  Arizona State’s offense played just as good away from home as they averaged 36.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Head coach Todd Graham has a history of blowing teams out in bowl games; 62-28 in 2012, 62-35 in 2010, 45-13 in 2008, and 63-7 in 2007.  Last year, Arizona State lost 37-23 to Texas Tech as 17-point favorites and that defeat has lingered with Graham and his team.  The Sun Devils are motivated, and since they are the superior team, we’ll lay the points with Arizona State in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

10* Play ARIZONA STATE (-).

Charlotte is just 10-19 on the season, but they have a good excuse for that poor record.  The Hornets dealt with a slew of injuries early on this season, and they had to face some of the best teams from the Western Conference during that stretch.  Charlotte hit a low point with a 10-game losing streak, but since getting healthier, the Hornets have been playing their best basketball of the season.  Charlotte has won four straight games, and they are 6-4 over their last ten games.  The Hornets have scored 104 points or more in their last four games, and their defense has held three of their last four opponents to 91 points or less.  

Oklahoma City has been a different team with both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook back on the court.  However, Durant injured his ankle five games ago, and the Thunder’s recent results have not been good.  Without Durant on the court, Oklahoma City is just 2-2 over their last four games with the two wins coming by just 1 and 8 points.  The Thunder played yesterday in San Antonio in a spotlight Christmas Day game and they won 114-106 after shooting 51.9% (42-81) from the field and 60% (9-15) from three-point land.  Five players scored 14 points or more in that game.  Off such a peak performance on a special day, we expect sharp regression from Oklahoma City tonight.  Charlotte is playing excellent basketball right now, so we’ll take the points with the Hornets in this game on Friday night.

9* Play HORNETS (+).

Rutgers and North Carolina are evenly matched, so this game should be close throughout and come right down to the wire.  The teams played similar tough schedules, Rutgers #47 and North Carolina #33, and their overall efficiency statistics are just about even across the board.  The Scarlett Knights went 7-5 SU and a solid 8-4 ATS this season.  Two of their losses came to Ohio State and Wisconsin who played in the Big 10 title game while other losses came at Michigan State and at Nebraska.  Those four teams are simply superior to Rutgers; their other loss only came by 3 points against Penn State.  The Scarlett Knights’ offense is better than perceived as they averaged 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 5.4 yards per play.  Rutgers’ offense has a good shot at breaking out in this game against a Tar Heels’ defense that is one of the worst in the country.        

North Carolina went just 6-6 SU and 5-7 ATS on the season.  All six of their losses did come against teams playing in bowl games, but five of those six losses came by 15 points or more with the average loss coming by 20.5 points per game.  North Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the country as they are giving up 38.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  The Tar Heels gave up 44 points per game away from home this season.  Those poor defensive numbers have come against a group of offenses that averaged 31.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  North Carolina went 2-2 ATS as a favorite this season with their two wins coming by just 5 points apiece.  Overall, four of the Tar Heels’ five wins against FBS opponents only came by an average of 3.8 points per game with winning margins of 4, 5, 1, and 5 points.  We’ll take the points with Rutgers as this game comes right down to the wire.   

10* Play RUTGERS (+).

Washington comes into this game off back-to-back home losses to the Suns and Bulls, but we’re willing to forgive both of those poor efforts, especially the last game against Chicago.  The Wizards knocked the Bulls out of the playoffs last season, and Chicago was hell bent on avenging that series defeat.  With a healthy team on the court, the Bulls are one of the best teams in the league, so there’s no shame in losing to them.  The back-to-back losses ensure a peak effort from Washington in this game, especially since they are being featured on Christmas Day.  This game is huge for the Wizards as they want to showcase their talents to a national audience.  Washington already won on this court earlier this season when they beat the Knicks 98-83, so they’ll have plenty of confidence as well.  

The Knicks are a complete mess this season.  They come into this game with an awful 5-25 record, and they have a slew of players on the injured list.  New York’s transition to the triangle offense has been a wreck, and their inability to score consistently has put enormous pressure on their poor defense.  The Knicks are in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 104.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 43.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Washington has a terrific offense that is averaging 100.4 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Wizards are simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this early game on Thursday afternoon.         

9* Play WIZARDS (-).

Charlotte is just 9-19 on the season, but they have a good excuse for that poor record.  The Hornets dealt with a slew of injuries early on this season, and they had to face some of the best teams from the Western Conference during that stretch.  Charlotte hit a low point with a 10-game losing streak, but since getting healthier, the Hornets have been playing their best basketball of the season.  Charlotte has won three straight games, and they are 5-4 over their last nine games.  The Hornets have scored 104 points or more in their last four games, and their defense has held their last three opponents to 91 points or less.  

Milwaukee is 14-14 on the season, but the injury bug has hit them hard.  The Bucks lost Jabari Parker for the season last week, and Ersan Ilyasova (nose) and John Henson (foot) are also on the injury report for tonight’s game.  The Bucks are returning home off a 4-game road trip; six of their last seven games have been on the road.  Milwaukee is such a young team, and since they’ve had two days off since returning home, this is not a good spot, especially with the holiday this week.  The Bucks’ play has not been as sharp lately; they are just 4-7 SU over their last eleven games.  Milwaukee went just 1-10 ATS in those games based on tonight’s posted spread as three of their four wins came by 5 points or less.  Charlotte is the better team despite what the records say, and since the Hornets are playing better basketball right now, we’ll take the points in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play HORNETS (+).

Georgia Tech and Dayton both play a similar style of basketball.  The two teams play at a controlled pace while setting up their offense in the half court.  The Yellow Jackets are 8-2 on the season with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points.  Georgia Tech’s defense has been terrific; the Yellow Jackets have held eight of their ten opponents to 69 points or less.  Overall this season, Georgia Tech is holding their opponents to just 60.9 points per game on 41.4% shooting from the field and 27.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Yellow Jackets also have motivation tonight as they are looking to avenge a 10-point home loss to Dayton last season.  Georgia Tech was an 8-point favorite in that game, so there’s value in getting the Yellow Jackets plus a handful of points in this game. 

Dayton is also 8-2 on the season, but things are going to get much tougher for the Flyers going forward.  Dayton is basically a one-man team right now with Jordan Siebert carrying the scoring burden.  The Flyers just kicked their two big men off the team after starter Devon Scott and backup Jalen Robinson were involved in a trespassing case on campus.  That duo combined for 12.3 points per game and 9.8 rebounds per game.  Dayton is now an extremely thin and short team as no player is taller than 6-foot-6.  Georgia Tech has a big post presence, so the Yellow Jackets will have a big edge inside the paint in this game.  In what projects to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, we’ll take Georgia Tech plus the points in this game on Tuesday night.  

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Seattle is on a roll; the Seahawks have won and covered the spread in four straight games.  But let’s put those wins into perspective.  Seattle beat Arizona at home after coming off a road loss in Kansas City.  Then they won at San Francisco as road underdogs and at Philadelphia as 1-point favorites.  And then last week they beat the 49ers again in an ugly 17-7 defensive struggle.  Seattle got three total wins over the Eagles and 49ers, two teams that are struggling mightily right now; they are a combined 0-6 SU during their past six games.  The Seahawks are now the flavor of the month, and the line on tonight’s game is greatly inflated because of their recent results.  Seattle closed as just a 7.5-point home favorite when they played the Cardinals last month, but now they are laying more points against the same opponent on the road.

Arizona last played on a Thursday night, so the extra time off will help them, especially since Ryan Lindley is slated to start at quarterback.  The Cardinals are a perfect 7-0 SU at home this season, so there’s a lot of value in getting more than a touchdown with Arizona in this game.  The Cardinals have a strong defense, especially at home where they are only giving up 15 points per game.  Arizona’s run defense has been terrific all season as they are allowing just 90.4 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush.  Seattle’s offensive line struggled in the first meeting as Russell Wilson got sacked seven times in that game.  The Seahawks lost their starting left tackle to injury in last week’s game, and his absence is a major loss.  Seattle has four losses on the season, and it’s interesting to note that Arizona is 5-0 SU against the teams that beat Seattle.  We’ll take the generous points with the strong defensive home underdog in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play CARDINALS (+).

The New York Giants have found a new life in recent weeks.  After losing three consecutive close games, including a blown 21-0 lead against Jacksonville, the Giants could have easily packed it in for the rest of the season.  But they didn’t, and they’ve won and covered their past two games.  The Giants out-scored their last two opponents by a combined score of 60-23.  Over their past four games, New York has averaged 28 points per game while scoring 24 points or more in every game.  The Giants’ offense should continue their strong play, especially since they’ll be indoors on a fast track against a Rams’ defense that has faced some of the worst passing offenses in the league over the last three weeks.  Prior to their past three games, the Rams’ secondary had allowed 958 passing yards during a three game span.

St. Louis comes in off an ugly 12-6 home loss to the Cardinals in their last game.  That was on a Thursday night, so the Rams do have some extra rest.  But considering the team isn’t going anywhere, that extra rest isn’t that meaningful.  St. Louis is getting a lot of respect in the betting market because of their recent 4-game ATS winning streak before last week' loss.  The Rams had gone 3-1 SU in those games, but two of the wins came against a pair of terrible teams, the Raiders and Redskins.  St. Louis has a poor offense that has been terrible all season long.  The Rams are averaging just 20.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  St. Louis has no business laying points into an offense that is better than their’s, so we’ll take the points with the Giants in this game on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play GIANTS (+).

Minnesota has certainly played better football since late October.  The Vikings are 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS, but four of those games came at home.  Minnesota is just 1-2 on the road during their recent good run, including an 8-point loss at a terrible Chicago team.  The Vikings will be playing on a back-to-back road set after losing 16-14 in Detroit last week.  Minnesota was up 14-0 in the first quarter, and they failed to do anything over the final 45 minutes of the game.  The Vikings’ offense has been poor all season as they are only averaging 19.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Those terrible numbers have come against defenses that are allowing 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Minnesota is taking a big step-up in defensive class as the Dolphins are only giving up 19.7 points per game on 4.9 yards per play at home this season.  

Miami returns home off a 41-13 blowout loss in New England last Sunday.  That was Miami’s third loss over their last four games, but they lost to the Patriots, Broncos, and Ravens who are a combined 31-11 on the season.  We’re willing to forgive the Dolphins for those losses, and we expect a big effort in this home game.  Miami’s offense has played much better at home where they are averaging 24 points per game, and since they’ve scored 16 points or less in their last three games, we anticipate a breakout game against the Vikings.  Minnesota’s defense has been vulnerable on the ground all season; they’ve allowed 122 rushing yards or more in five of their last six games.  They’ve allowed that number in eight games this season.  Minnesota is a cold weather team that has played at home or in a dome over the last four weeks, so the heat and humidity of South Florida will be an issue on Sunday.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this early game on Sunday. 

9* Play DOLPHINS (-).

Bowling Green is one of the worst teams to make a bowl game this season.  The Falcons come into this game in a tailspin as they’ve lost three straight games, and four of their last six games overall.  Bowling Green has been dreadful versus the point spread; they are just 2-7-1 ATS over their last ten games.  Normally, teams like Bowling Green present some value because of their recent results, but that’s not the case at all here.  My power ratings have South Alabama as a 3.5-point favorite, and since this line is currently less than 3, the oddsmakers did not inflate the spread at all despite Bowling Green’s poor current form.  The Falcons have underperformed on both sides of the ball this season.  Bowling Green is averaging just 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.8 yards per play.  On defense, the Falcons are giving up 33.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that are averaging 27.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.         

South Alabama is playing in their first bowl game, and they get to stay in state which gives them a huge site advantage for this game.  The Jaguars are no world beaters by any stretch of the imagination, but they are much more motivated to play in this game than Bowling Green.  The Jaguars have played good defense this season, so they also hold a defensive edge over the Falcons.  Overall, South Alabama is giving up 25.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents averaging 30.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  The Jaguars’ defense has actually been better away from home where they are giving up 24.2 points per game on just 5.2 yards per play.  South Alabama is set for a big effort in what essentially is a home game, so we’ll lay the points with the Jaguars in this game on Saturday night.      

9* Play SOUTH ALABAMA (-).

San Diego has played good football since coming off their bye.  The Chargers are 3-2 with their two losses coming at home against the Patriots and Broncos who are a combined 22-6 on the season.  Going out on the road is a good thing for the Chargers right now, and we expect a strong bounce back effort in this game, especially since they are taking a big step-down in class.  San Diego’s offense has played above average football this season.  The Chargers are averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 5.4 yards per play.  San Diego’s offense will be facing a San Francisco defense that is not in good current form right now.  The 49ers have allowed 5.9 yards per play over their last three games which is in sharp decline from their seasonal average of 5.3 yards per play. 

San Francisco has lost three consecutive games, and the wheels seem to be coming off this team.  The 49ers’ offense has struggled all season long, and their backfield is in flux with Frank Gore suffering a concussion last week and Carlos Hyde out of this game with an ankle and back injury.  Overall, San Francisco’s offense is averaging just 17.9 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The 49ers will face a solid San Diego defense that is only giving up 21 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Chargers have a better defense than the average opponent San Francisco has played this season.  San Diego is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Chargers in this game on Saturday night. 

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

Atlanta comes into this game off one of the biggest wins in the NBA this season.  The Hawks crushed the Cavaliers in Cleveland by 29 points (127-98) on Wednesday night, and that game has been the talk for the last couple of days.  That’s not a good thing for Atlanta, and because of it, we expect a big regression tonight in Houston.  The Hawks shot an incredible 64.5% (49-76) from the field and 57.1% (16-28) from three-point land.  They also hit 81.2% (13-16) of their free throws.  Seven players scored 10 points or more, including three players on the second unit.  Atlanta played a perfect game, and it’s highly unlikely the Hawks will repeat a performance like that this season.  It should be noted that the team was without arguably their best player and point guard Jeff Teague; he will miss tonight’s game as well.    

Houston lost 99-90 at home to New Orleans on Thursday night.  However, the Rockets were in a tough spot for that game as they just won in overtime in Denver the night before.  We can easily excuse that loss by Houston, and we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight, especially since they are playing on their home court once again.  The Rockets’ offense was terrible in that loss as they shot just 38.4% (33-86) from the field and 24% (6-25) from three-point land.  Houston will be more efficient tonight considering they’ll be facing an Atlanta defense that is allowing 100.5 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Houston is the better team in the better spot, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play ROCKETS (-).

This game will be played on a neutral floor, so neither team will have the home court edge.  Northern Iowa and Iowa both come into this game off losses, so we can expect good efforts by both teams.  Northern Iowa is 9-1 on the season, and a big part of that success has been the Panthers getting back to their slow and defensive ways.  Northern Iowa tried to play a different style of basketball over the last couple of seasons, and it simply didn’t work out.  But head coach Ben Jacobson reverted back to the old ways, and the results have been terrific.  Northern Iowa plays at an extremely slow pace while suffocating their opponents with defense in the half court.  The Panthers are allowing just 59 points per game this season.  Northern Iowa has held nine of their ten opponents to 70 points or less in regulation time this season.   

Iowa is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Hawkeyes have struggled mightily with their half court offense this season, so this is not a good match-up for them at all.  Northern Iowa routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions; Iowa has yet to play in such a game this season.  Iowa has scored less than 70 points in three games against power conference teams this season.  The Hawkeyes went just 1-2 SU in those games with the win coming by just 5 points over North Carolina.  That was a strange game considering the Tar Heels also play at a fast pace, so the slow-paced win can be discounted.  We expect Northern Iowa to slow this game to a crawl, so we’ll take the points with the Panthers on Saturday night. 

9* Play NORTHERN IOWA (+).

Los Angeles is 14-4 over their last 18 games.  The Clippers have won ten of those games by double digits while going 11-3 ATS in their fourteen wins.  However, as impressive as that is, it’s also unsustainable, and we’ve seen some regression in their play over the last few games.  The Clippers are just 2-2 SU over their last four games with one of those wins coming by just 2 points over a shorthanded Indiana team.  This is a bad spot for the Clippers as well as they are making a one-game road trip to Denver, and a trip to the Rockies is not easy from Los Angeles.  The Clippers will have to fly right back as they host Milwaukee tomorrow night.  Head coach Doc Rivers hinted at resting his players, especially since the Clippers are playing their sixth game in ten days.  

Denver has lost three straight games, and seven of their last eight games overall.  However, four of those games were on the road, and they were also playing without Kenneth Faried and Danilo Gallinari.  Both of those guys returned on Wednesday night, and Denver played much better even though they lost 115-111 in overtime to Houston.  The Nuggets are playing their third straight home game, and since they’ve lost the last two, we expect a strong effort tonight.  The home team has dominated this series, winning seven consecutive meetings and eight of the last nine overall.  The Nuggets are averaging 106.2 points per game at home this season, and they will score easily on a Los Angeles defense that is allowing 100.3 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Friday night.  

10* Play NUGGETS (+).

Milwaukee has been playing good basketball this season, but unfortunately, the injury bug has hit them hard.  The Bucks lost Jabari Parker for the season on Monday night, and Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle), Ersan Ilyasova (nose), and John Henson (foot) are all on the injury report for tonight’s game in Sacramento.  The Bucks played last night in Portland, and they held a 2-point lead going into the fourth quarter.  But they ran out of gas, and ended up losing 104-97.  Milwaukee shot 48.1% (37-77) from the field and 36.8% (7-19) from three-point land in that game, but we do not expect a repeat of that effort on back-to-back nights.  The Bucks were crushed on the boards 52-32, and that weakness will be present once again tonight against the Kings.       

Sacramento stunned just about everybody when they fired head coach Mike Malone earlier this week.  The Kings are mired in a 2-9 slump, but those losses were accrued without their best player, DeMarcus Cousins, who was out with viral meningitis.  Cousins is slated to return tonight, and his presence makes the Kings a much better team.  Sacramento management wants the Kings to play at a fast pace under interim head coach Tyrone Corbin, and tonight is a good opportunity to do that.  Milwaukee is extremely vulnerable inside the paint right now because of their injuries, and the Kings have a very good interior offense.  Sacramento is one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, and they’ll hold a huge edge in this game.  We’ll lay the points with Sacramento in this game on Thursday night.   

9* Play KINGS (-).

Tennessee and Jacksonville are two of the worst teams in the NFL, and they come into tonight’s game with identical 2-12 records.  One of Tennessee’s wins came at home over Jacksonville; the Titans won 16-14 back in Week 6.  That was a phony win for Tennessee as they were thoroughly out-played by the Jaguars.  Jacksonville held a 27-14 first down edge while out-gaining Tennessee 379-290 in total yardage.  Jaguars’ quarterback Blake Bortles also out-played Titans’ quarterback Charlie Whitehurst by a substantial margin.  Bortles completed 32 of his 46 passes for 336 yards while Whitehurst completed 17 of his 28 passes for 233 yards.  Tennessee won because of a +2 turnover edge, but if the Jaguars hold onto the ball in this game, we expect a different outcome.    

Jacksonville is playing better football than people think, especially on defense.  Overall, the Jaguars rank 6th in the NFL with 38 sacks; they sacked Whitehurst three times in the first meeting.  Jacksonville has allowed just two passing touchdowns over their last three games, and that means it’s going to be difficult for Tennessee to move the ball with consistency in this game.  The Jaguars’ offense has scored just 25 total points in their last two games, but they actually have a good shot at breaking out tonight against a Tennessee defense that is giving up 30.3 points per game on 5.8 yards per play on the road this season.  This is Jacksonville’s final home game of the season, so we expect a strong effort and a comfortable win over Tennessee on Thursday night.  

10* Play JAGUARS (-).

Oklahoma City is in excellent current form.  The Thunder have won six consecutive games, and they are 8-1 SU over their past nine games.  They’ve won seven of those eight games by 9 points or more with their average win coming by 15.1 points per game.  Oklahoma City is a completely different team now than they were earlier in the season when both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were out with injuries.  The Thunder’s seasonal stats are bad, but they are meaningless, especially their offensive numbers.  Over their past five games, Oklahoma City is averaging 107.2 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field.  The Thunder’s offense will generate a lot of easy baskets tonight, especially since the Kings are changing their style of play.

Sacramento stunned just about everybody when they fired head coach Mike Malone yesterday after losing at home versus Detroit on Saturday night.  That loss was the Kings’ eighth defeat over their past ten games, but they’ve been playing without their best player, DeMarcus Cousins, who is out with viral meningitis.  His absence makes the Kings extremely vulnerable, so the recent bad results are not the coach’s fault.  Sacramento management wants the Kings to play at a fast pace under interim head coach Tyrone Corbin; they were playing a defensive style under former coach Malone.  Oklahoma City has too much offensive firepower for the Kings right now, and playing at a fast pace will only create more separation for the Thunder.  These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now, so we’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City on Tuesday night.

10* Play THUNDER (-).

New Orleans comes into this game off another baffling home loss, and not many will want to back the Saints in this game, especially since they are laying points on the road.  However, this is a very good spot to take New Orleans, especially since the pointspread is deflated a couple of points because of the recent results.  The Saints still possess one of the best offenses in the NFL despite their poor 5-8 record.  New Orleans is averaging 25.6 points per game on a strong 6.2 yards per play.  The Saints have racked up 393 yards of total offense in ten of their thirteen games this season; New Orleans had 525 total yards in their last Monday night game against the Ravens.  New Orleans will be facing a poor Chicago defense that is allowing 29.1 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Bears’ defense has given up 75 points and 871 yards of total offense in their last two games.

Chicago is in terrible current form; they are just 3-7 SU over their last ten games.  Chicago’s recent play suggests they’ve packed it in for the season, and tonight they will be without their best offensive player as Brandon Marshall was lost for the season last week.  The Bears’ offense has played below average football all season; Chicago averages just 20.2 points per game at home.  Chicago’s defense just can’t stop anybody, and they’ll be facing a strong New Orleans’ offense that is off their worst performance of the season when they only scored 10 points on 310 yards of offense last week.  The Bears have allowed 77.5% (55-71) pass completions for 595 yards on a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempts with 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions over their last two games.  Chicago has allowed a league-high 30 touchdown passes this season.  New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees will have a monster game, and the Saints’ offense will be too much for the Chicago defense, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play SAINTS (-).

Dallas is 3-1 since losing back-to-back home games at the end of October.  The Cowboys lone loss over their last four games also came at home.  That was a 33-10 embarrassment on Thanksgiving at the hands of Philadelphia.  The Cowboys certainly remember that terrible performance, and in an important game, we expect a strong effort tonight.  Dallas’ offense has been terrific on the road this season.  The Cowboys are averaging 32.2 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Cowboys have a fantastic running game that is averaging 148.7 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush.  Dallas’ ability to run the ball has allowed QB Tony Romo to make big passing plays downfield all season.  Romo is completing 69.1% of his passes while throwing for a whopping 8.4 yards per pass attempt. 

Philadelphia is off a 24-14 home loss to Seattle.  The Eagles were atrocious in that game as they only had 139 yards of total offense.  Philadelphia’s defense was shredded for 440 yards by the Seahawks with 188 of those yards coming on the ground.  The Eagles have allowed 281 rushing yards over their last two games, and that’s not a good thing since they will be facing a strong Dallas rushing attack.  Overall this season, Philadelphia’s defense has played below average football.  The Eagles are giving up 23.8 points per game versus offenses that are only averaging 22.6 points per game.  Philadelphia will now face a Dallas offense that is scoring 9.6 points per game more than the average Eagles’ opponent this season.  The Cowboys also hold a significant scheduling edge for this late in the season as they last played on a Thursday night, giving them a few extra days to get ready for this game.  We’ll take the points with Dallas in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play COWBOYS (+).

Oakland beat Kansas City as 7-point home underdogs three weeks ago on a Thursday night.  That was the Raiders first win of the season, and they celebrated like they won the Super Bowl.  Kansas City felt disrespected by the extended celebration, and they finally get the chance to atone for that loss.  After that win over Kansas City, the Raiders got crushed 52-0 in St. Louis the following week.  Off that embarrassment, the Raiders beat the 49ers 24-13 as 8.5-point home underdogs last week.  So Oakland has alternated wins and losses over their last three games with both wins coming on their home field.  Despite the recent wins, the Raiders are still a horrible team.  Oakland’s offense is awful as they are averaging just 15.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  Those numbers are even worse on the road where they are averaging an anemic 11.4 points per game on 4.3 yards per play.

Kansas City’s loss in Oakland started their current 3-game losing streak.  The Chiefs also lost to Denver and Arizona, but those losses can be excused.  Kansas City has an exceptional rushing attack that is averaging 127.8 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  The Chiefs will run all over a terrible Raiders’ defense that has allowed 264 rushing yards over their last two games.  Kansas City’s offense is averaging 24.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play at home this season.  Those numbers have come against defenses that are only giving up 21.9 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Oakland’s defense has given up 27.3 points per game on the road this season.  The Chiefs’ defense has been strong at home, allowing just 17.7 points per game this season.  Kansas City is the superior team and playing with legitimate revenge, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday.  

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

We cashed a Best Bet winner on Pittsburgh going against Cincinnati last week, but we’re going to back the Bengals in this game on Sunday afternoon.  The Steelers were in a terrific bounce back spot while holding some nice matchup edges.  Cincinnati fits that profile for this game.  The Bengals are in a good bounce back spot after losing 42-21 at home last week.  That was a bad spot for the Bengals after returning home off a 3-game road winning streak and facing a potent Pittsburgh passing attack that was in good form.  Things get much better and much easier for the Bengals in this game against the Browns.  Cincinnati is playing with legitimate revenge after getting embarrassed at home on a Thursday night when the Browns beat them 24-3 as 6-point underdogs.  The Browns were in much better form then as they were 4-1 over their previous five games before playing the Bengals.  Cleveland comes into this game with a 1-3 record over their last four games.  

Cleveland comes in off a demoralizing 25-24 home loss to the Colts last week.  The Browns gave up the winning touchdown with just 32 seconds left to play after blowing a 21-7 lead.  The Browns are now desperate, and that’s evident by the fact that they will start rookie QB Johnny Manziel in this game.  Manziel will be facing a good Cincinnati defense off a terrible performance, so his task will be difficult.  The Bengals’ defense is only allowing 20.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play on the road this season.  Despite scoring 25 points last week, the Browns’ offense only mustered 248 yards of total offense; they benefitted from 4 Indianapolis turnovers.  Cincinnati has been significantly better than Cleveland over the last four games as the Bengals are +6 in point differential while the Browns are -31 in point differential.  Cincinnati is the better team, and since they are playing with strong motivation, we’ll back the Bengals in this game on Sunday. 

9* Play BENGALS (+).

Green Bay is having a terrific season as they are 10-3 overall while riding a 5-game winning streak.  However, we’ve seen some regression in the Packers’ margin of victory over their last three games.  Green Bay’s first seven wins came by an average of 22.6 points per game with six of the seven wins coming by 7 points or more.  The Packers’ last three wins have come by an average of just 4.7 points per game, and two of those games were at home.  Green Bay is just 3-3 on the road this season with two of those wins coming by 3 points apiece.  Green Bay’s offense is terrific, but their defense has underperformed this season, especially on the road where they are allowing 26.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play to opponents who average 23.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.        

Buffalo is in a good bounce back spot for this game against Green Bay.  The Bills come in off a 24-17 loss in Denver, and a return home will bring out Buffalo’s best effort, especially since this is their final home game of the season.  Buffalo’s defense has been terrific this season.  The Bills are giving up just 18.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play against offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Buffalo’s pass defense is allowing 6.3 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 6.5 yards per pass attempt.  The Bills have a good enough defense to contain Green Bay’s offense, especially since the Packers have been weaker on the road this season.  This is a bad spot for Green Bay as they are playing an out of conference opponent on the road after playing at home on Monday night.  We’ll take the points with Buffalo in this game on Sunday.  

9* Play BILLS (+).

Detroit is just 4-19 on the season, and my preseason projection of the Piston being a much improved team looks wrong.  However, Detroit was missing a key piece of that expected improvement as Jodie Meeks missed the first 22 games of the season with a back injury.  Meeks returned to the court last night in Phoenix, and we saw a significantly better Detroit team on display, especially their offense.  The Pistons scored 105 points after shooting 47.6% (40-84) from the field with six different players scoring 11 points or more.  Detroit played at a much faster pace as well as they took 84 shots in the game.  That allowed them to get a lot of easy baskets; the Pistons scored 60 points inside the paint.  Detroit will have similar success tonight, especially since the Kings will be without their best player.

Sacramento is a team we’ve used several times this season.  However, the Kings are playing without DeMarcus Cousins who is out with viral meningitis.  His absence makes the Kings extremely vulnerable, especially inside the paint.  That’s not a good thing considering the Pistons have one of the best frontcourts in the NBA with Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond.  They combined for 35 points and 22 rebounds last night, and those totals should be even greater tonight with Cousins not on the court.  Sacramento is just 2-7 over their last nine games, including 2-6 without Cousins on the court.  These two teams are heading in opposite directions right now, so we’ll take the points with Detroit on Saturday night.   

9* Play PISTONS (+).

Gonzaga is one of the best teams in the country, and they have a legitimate shot at making a very deep run in the NCAA tournament in March.  The Zags come into tonight’s game with an 8-1 record with their lone loss coming by just 3 points (66-63) in overtime to a very good Arizona team.  Gonzaga bounced back strongly off that heartbreaking loss as they crushed Washington State 81-66 in their last game.  That’s a positive sign for Gonzaga, and we expect them to come with another strong effort in this game.  The Zags have an extremely efficient offense that is averaging 81.4 points per game on 51% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  All five of Gonzaga’s starters are averaging 10 points or more per game.  The Zags also have a deep bench that can score points, and their second unit is little match for many college teams.  

UCLA has a good 8-2 record on the season, but the Bruins have played an extremely weak schedule.  Their two games against decent competition both resulted in losses; UCLA lost 75-65 to Oklahoma and they lost 78-56 to North Carolina.  Neither one of those two teams are as good as Gonzaga, so this will definitely be UCLA’s toughest game of the season so far.  The Bruins love to play fast, but that will be a detriment in this game against a much better Gonzaga offense.  UCLA plays little defense as they’ve given up 71 points or more in six of their ten games this season.  The Bruins have trailed at the half in their last two games to inferior opponents and that’s not a good sign coming into this game.  Gonzaga is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday night.   

9* Play GONZAGA (-).

Kansas beat us on Wednesday night when they won 75-70 at Georgetown as 2-point underdogs.  We have no hesitation in playing against the Jayhawks once again, especially since they are now laying a handful of points into a better team than they just faced.  This game will be played on a neutral court and not on Kansas’ strong home court, so that eliminates a major edge.  The Jayhawks beat Georgetown because of their hot 3-point shooting and their ability to get to the free throw line.  Kansas shot 58.8% (10-17) from three-point land, and they also connected on 25 of their 32 free throw attempts.  The Jayhawks struggled mightily in the half court as they shot just 37.7% (20-53) from the field in that game. 

Utah is 7-1 on the season with their lone loss coming by 4 points (53-49) on the road to a very good San Diego State team.  The Utes beat Wichita State earlier this season, snapping their 35-game winning streak.  That win showed how good the Utes are this season.  Utah plays at an extremely slow pace, and that is the style of basketball that frustrates Kansas.  The Utes have held seven of their eight opponents to 68 points or less this season.  Overall, Utah is only allowing 57.4 points per game on 35.8% shooting from the field this season.  Kansas has not been winning by big margins lately as their last three wins have come by 6, 6, and 5 points.  We expect this game to be close throughout, so we’ll take Utah plus the points on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play UTAH (+).

Charlotte is just 6-15 SU on the season, but they have a good excuse for that poor record.  The Hornets dealt with a slew of injuries early on this season, and they had to face some of the best teams from the Western Conference during that stretch.  Charlotte hit a low point with a 10-game losing streak, but they’ve won their last two games since getting healthier.  Charlotte got Gary Neal back for the Knicks game, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist returned in Wednesday night’s 96-87 win over the Celtics.  The Hornets are well-rested as this will be just their fourth game over the past thirteen days.  Charlotte will be focused tonight, especially since they’ll be playing one of the best teams in the NBA.

Memphis is 17-4 SU on the season, and there’s really nothing negative to say about the team.  However, the Grizzlies may overlook Charlotte because of their poor record, and the fact that Memphis has just played a stretch of games against some of the elite teams in the league.  The Grizzlies just faced the Clippers, Blazers, Spurs, and Mavericks recently.  Those games are much more important for Memphis, especially since those are the teams the Grizzlies will be battling for playoff positioning.  Memphis also has a road game on deck tomorrow night.  This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive grinder just like November’s 71-69 win by Memphis.  We’ll take the big points with the undervalued Hornets in this game on Friday night.    

10* Play HORNETS (+).

Arizona began the season at 9-1, but they’ve gone just 1-2 SU over their last three games.  Both of those losses came on the road, and we expect that trend to continue tonight.  The Cardinals were dealt a big blow when quarterback Carson Palmer was lost for the season with a knee injury.  Drew Stanton has been terrible in Palmer’s place, leading the Cardinals to just two touchdown drives over the last 15 quarters.  The Cardinals’ offense is in terrible current form as they’ve scored 17 points or less in four consecutive games.  Arizona’s struggles will continue tonight against a St. Louis defense that is playing their best football of the season; the Rams come in off back-to-back shutouts.

St. Louis is playing much better football now than they were earlier this season.  The Rams have won three of their last four games while holding their opponents to a total of 7 points in those three wins.  St. Louis’ defense has been fantastic, recording 34 sacks since Week 7.  The Rams’ defensive line is a nightmare match-up for a weak quarterback like Drew Stanton, especially since he’s been playing poorly.  Arizona won the first meeting 31-14, but Carson Palmer played in that game and the Cardinals scored two defensive touchdowns.  St. Louis held the Cardinals to just 28 rushing yards in that game, so this game is going to be on Stanton’s shoulders.  St. Louis is simply playing better football right now, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play RAMS (-).

Boston is struggling this season.  The Celtics are 7-12 on the season, including an ugly 2-5 record on the road.  Boston’s 3-game winning streak was snapped on Monday night when they lost 133-132 to Washington in double overtime.  The game had to take a lot out of the Celtics, especially since they had to rally from a 16-point deficit heading into the fourth quarter.  Boston is playing on tired legs as this will be their third game in four nights, and also their sixth game in nine nights.  The Celtics also have a terrible defense, especially on the road where they are allowing 110.3 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 43.5% shooting from three-point land.      

Charlotte has also struggled this season; the Hornets only have 5 wins.  However, Charlotte has dealt with a slew of injuries while facing some of the best teams from the Western Conference.  Charlotte snapped their recent 10-game losing streak with a win over the Knicks on Friday night.  The Hornets dominated that game as they led by 18 points in the fourth quarter while their offense scored 103 points on 47.7% shooting from the field.  Charlotte got Gary Neal back for that game, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is slated to return tonight.  The Hornets are also well-rested as this will be just their third game over the last eleven days, and they are playing an opponent that they are better than.  Charlotte holds a significant scheduling edge for this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Hornets in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play HORNETS (-).

Los Angeles comes into this game on an 8-game winning streak, and they’ve won 10 of their last 11 games.  The Clippers have won nine of those games by double digits while going 9-1 ATS in their ten wins.  However, as impressive as that is, it’s also unsustainable.  The Clippers will inevitably go on a losing streak against the spread, and their last game may be the start.  Los Angeles beat Phoenix 121-120 in overtime while failing to cover the 7.5-point line.  The Clippers were actually lucky to win that game as they needed a rare Blake Griffin three-pointer to get the job done.  Los Angeles must now travel to the opposite coast and begin a 3-game mini road trip.  This is not a good spot for the Clippers, especially since they are laying a significant amount of points.   

Indiana is not off to a good start this season.  The Pacers are just 7-14 on the season, including a 4-6 record at home.  Indiana was up against it before the season started as they lost two of their best players to injury, and other role players went down when the season began.  Things are getting better for the Pacers as David West has returned to the court.  Indiana is on a 5-game losing streak, but four of those games came on the road.  The Pacers lost to Atlanta in their return home, and off such an ugly loss, we can expect Indiana to bring their best effort tonight.  The Pacers will be playing just their second game over a 5-day span, so they are well-rested.  Indiana will hit the road again on Friday for a game in Toronto, and that makes tonight’s home game extremely important.  We’ll take the points with Indiana in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play PACERS (+).

Kansas and Georgetown played last year with the Jayhawks winning 86-64 on their home court.  Kansas had a favorable whistle in that game as they held a whopping 46-28 free throw attempts edge.  The Jayhawks also shot 54.3% (25-46) from the field in that game.  Kansas was simply the much better team last year, but that’s not the case this season, especially since the Jayhawks are not as good as they were after losing two players in the NBA lottery.  Tonight is the rematch Georgetown has been waiting for, and it comes on the Hoyas’ home court, and we expect a much different outcome.   

Georgetown is 5-2 on the season with their two losses coming to good teams like Wisconsin and Butler.  The Hoyas beat Florida, so they’ve been battled tested against three strong opponents.  The Hoyas play at an extremely slow pace, and that is the style of basketball that frustrates Kansas.  Georgetown has held all seven of their opponents to 68 points or less this season.  Overall, the Hoyas are only allowing 61.9 points per game on 38.4% shooting from the field and 26.8% shooting from three-point land.  This is a much bigger game for Georgetown as a win over Kansas would boost their resume come March.  The Hoyas have won 54 consecutive non-conference games on their home court, and since they are playing with a lot of motivation, we’ll back Georgetown in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play GEORGETOWN (-).

Atlanta has played much better football recently as they are 3-1 SU over their last four games.  The Falcons were dreadful early in the season as they went just 2-6 SU over their first eight games.  Atlanta’s first five losses of the season all came by 10 points or more, but their last two losses have come by just 1 and 2 points.  Despite the poor start to the season, Atlanta’s offense has played above average football overall.  The Falcons are averaging 24.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 23.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Atlanta’s defense has also improved significantly as they’ve held four of their last five opponents to 22 points or less.  The Falcons gave up 24 points or more in six of their first seven games. 

Green Bay is having a terrific season as they are 9-3 overall, including a perfect 6-0 at home.  However, we’ve seen some regression in the Packers’ margin of victory over their last two games.  Green Bay’s first seven wins came by an average of 22.6 points per game with six of the seven wins coming by 7 points or more.  The Packers’ last two wins have come by an average of just 4 points per game; they beat the Vikings 24-21 and the Patriots 26-21.  Green Bay is now a double digit favorite for the first time this season, and they are laying those points into an Atlanta team that is in tremendous current form.  The value is clearly on the Falcons side, so we’ll take the big points with Atlanta in this game on Monday night.

10* Play FALCONS (+).

Creighton comes into this game with a 6-2 record, but the majority of those wins have come against inferior competition.  The Bluejays are a shell of the teams they’ve had in recent years that won 27, 28, and 29 games.  Creighton returns just one starter from last season’s team which featured National Player of the Year Doug McDermott who is now in the NBA.  The four players Creighton lost averaged 51 points per game, and that’s why their offense has struggled mightily this season.  The Bluejays have scored 68 points or less in five of their last six games.  Creighton is shooting just 43.4% from the field, and their offense will have a lot of trouble scoring in this game against a very good Cornhuskers’ defense that is only allowing 63.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field.      

Nebraska has improved in each of the last three seasons, and this year they are set to breakout with a legitimate shot at making the NCAA tournament.  The Cornhuskers are 5-1 this season with their lone loss coming in overtime to Rhode Island.  This is a huge game for Nebraska against their in-state rival, and it’s a game the Cornhuskers have had circled since losing by 15 points last season.  “We were all embarrassed last year,” Nebraska coach Tim Miles said.  “We have a lot to prove in this rivalry. Basketball is as good as it’s been in a long time at Nebraska. The rivalry is a big deal to me and a big deal to our program. It’s one of those games that gets marked on your calendar.”  The players are also quite motivated to beat the Bluejays: “A win against Creighton would erase a lot of bad memories,” said David Rivers.  Nebraska is simply the better team this year, and since they have a lot of motivation, we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night.  

9* Play NEBRASKA (-).

Houston is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Jacksonville.  The Texans played their best game of the season last week when they crushed the Titans 45-21.  Houston put-up 457 yards of total offense in that game while quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Fitzpatrick was pulled earlier this season for ineffectiveness, and he was only playing last week because Ryan Mallett got hurt.  That was Houston’s second blowout of Tennessee as they won the first meeting 30-16.  Last week was an abnormal game for the Texans’ offense considering they only average 23.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play against defense that allow 24.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Houston has virtually no shot in matching last week’s production, and the line is grossly inflated because of their recent results.  

Jacksonville is quietly playing better football as the season goes on.  The Jaguars are off a 25-24 comeback home win over the Giants last week.  That win created a lot of momentum for Jacksonville, especially since they will be playing at home once again this week.  The Jaguars’ defense has played significantly better at home this season.  Jacksonville is giving up 23.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on their home field.  Overall, Jacksonville is allowing 27.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The numbers clearly show a big difference, and Jacksonville will be facing a below average offense that is off a season-best performance.  The Jaguars’ defense has a solid situational edge, and since Houston has been an underdog in four of their six road games this season, we’ll take the points with Jacksonville in this game on Sunday.  

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

Tampa Bay has played excellent football since their bye despite going just 1-5 SU.  The Buccaneers out-gained four of their six opponents while their defense allowed 22 points or less in five of those games.  Overall, Tampa Bay’s defense has actually played better than average this season.  The Bucs are giving up 5.7 yards per play against offenses that average 5.8 yards per play.  The defense is taking a step down in class against a weak Detroit offense that is only averaging 19.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Lions have put-up those terrible offensive numbers against defenses allowing 23.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.       

Detroit is off a 34-17 home win over Chicago on Thanksgiving Day.  But that win means absolutely nothing since it came against the lowly Bears who just got blown out at home on Thursday by the Cowboys.  The Lions were in a terrific scheduling spot for that game after back-to-back road losses in which their offense scored a total of 15 points.  Detroit’s best offense comes from their passing game, but Tampa Bay’s defense is built to stop the pass, and their secondary has been terrific recently.  The Bucs have held their last six opponents to 280 passing yards or less, and they’ve held their last four opponents to 212 passing yards or less.  Tampa Bay has ten losses on the season, but eight of those losses have come by 10 points or less.  We’ll take the points with Tampa Bay in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Pittsburgh comes into this game off a home loss to New Orleans last week.  We had a Best Bet winner on the Saints in that game as we felt it was a bad matchup for Pittsburgh’s defense.  That’s not the case in this game, as Cincinnati does not possess the type of potent offense that gives the Steelers’ defense trouble.  Pittsburgh has played better football in the second half of the season.  Prior to last week’s loss, the Steelers were 4-1 over their previous five games with their lone loss coming in a terrible spot against the Jets.  Pittsburgh’s momentum was halted as they went into last week’s game off their bye.  The Steelers are now in a much better situation to bounce back with a strong performance, especially since this is an important division game.  Pittsburgh’s offense has played above average football this season as they are averaging 26.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 24 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

Cincinnati is off an impressive 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS road trip.  The Bengals played three consecutive games away from home, and since they had success, there’s a good shot they come into this game overconfident.  Cincinnati’s play has actually gotten worse despite the recent positive results, and they were underdogs in two of their last three games.  Overall, the Bengals’ offense has played below average football this season.  Cincinnati is only averaging 21.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 23.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s defense has actually played better on the road where they are holding opponents to just 21.5 points per game compared to their overall season average of 24.8 points per game.  This isn’t the best of situational spots for the Bengals, so we’ll take the points with Pittsburgh in this early game on Sunday.  

10* Play STEELERS (+).

Carolina was in a prime situational and scheduling spot for their game in Minnesota last week, and the Panthers failed to show up in a 31-13 loss.  That poor effort is an indication that Carolina has quit on the season; they’ve lost six consecutive games.  The Panthers’ losses have been ugly, especially on the road.  Carolina lost by 21 points at Green Bay, 24 points at Philadelphia, and 18 points at Minnesota.  Now they must play on the road for a second consecutive week, and do so against one of the best offenses in the league.  Carolina’s defense has been atrocious on the road all season as they are giving up 33.8 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  Those terrible numbers have actually come against a slate of opposing offenses that are only averaging 24.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.   

New Orleans came thru with a nice win for us last week, and we’ll come right back and play them again this week.  New Orleans is just 5-7 on the season, and they’ve lost their last three home games.  This is a huge game for the Saints, and we expect them to bring one of their best efforts of the season.  New Orleans is averaging 26.9 points per game on a strong 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that are only allowing 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints will face a Carolina defense that is giving up 11.4 points per game more than teams New Orleans has been facing.  New Orleans beat Carolina 28-10 earlier this season; the Saints put-up 375 yards of offense despite playing on the road just four days after beating the Packers on a Sunday night.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with New Orleans on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play SAINTS (-).

Rhode Island is 4-2 on the season with their two losses coming against Kansas and Georgia Tech.  The Rams have played a brutal schedule as their five Division I opponents have a combined record of 25-9.  Rhode Island comes into this game off a loss, and they’ve had five full days to prepare, so they will be ready for a big effort.  “We’ve still got a bad taste in our mouths from that loss,” Jared Terrell said.  “You can see it in practice. Everybody is trying to fuel each other and play harder.”  Rhode Island head coach Dan Hurley also likes what he sees from his team: “I feel pretty good about where we’re at. I think the guys have responded really well.”  

Southern Mississippi won 77-64 in Rhode Island last season, but the Golden Eagles are a shell of that team.  They return just one starter from their 29-win team of last season, and they are also playing a different style of basketball under new head coach Doc Sadler.  Southern Miss is also 4-2 on the season, but their wins have come over William Carey, South Alabama, Troy, and North Dakota State.  The Golden Eagles lost 59-36 at Drexel, a team that just lost to Division II University Sciences Philadelphia on Thursday night.  Rhode Island is simply the better team, and with motivation to avenge last year’s loss, we’ll lay the points in this game on Saturday night.        

9* Play RHODE ISLAND (-).

Louisiana Tech comes into this game with an 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS record.  Two of their four SU losses came at Oklahoma and at Auburn, games they expected to lose.  So we can make the argument that Louisiana Tech is actually 8-2 in games against comparable teams, and both of those losses only came by 3 point apiece.  The Bulldogs have an explosive offense that is averaging 38.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Louisiana Tech is well-balanced as they are averaging 148 yards on the ground and 248 yards thru the air per game.  The Bulldogs will be the first potent offense that Marshall has faced all season, and considering how bad of a spot this is for Marshall, we expect the Louisiana Tech offense to score a lot of points in this game.     

Marshall comes in off a heartbreaking loss last week to Western Kentucky.  The Thundering Herd lost 67-66 in overtime, and it was also their first loss of the season.  That defeat most likely cost Marshall a New Year’s Day bowl game, so we expect the Thundering Herd to play with a hangover in this game.  Marshall trailed by 21 points before forcing overtime, then they led by 7 until Western Kentucky tied the game and won it on a 2-point conversion attempt.  The way they lost that game is extremely difficult to get over, and since Louisiana Tech has a high-scoring offense, this is a case of the worst opponent at the worst time for Marshall.  The Thundering Herd also have a potent offense that averages 46.7 points per game, but Louisiana Tech’s defense is holding opponents to 25.2 points per game on just 4.8 yards per play.  This is simply a terrible spot for Marshall, so we’ll take the points with Louisiana Tech in this early game on Saturday afternoon.     

9* Play LOUISIANA TECH (+).

New York is a complete mess right now.  The Knicks come into this game with an ugly 4-16 record as their personnel and style of play changes have simply been out of sync all season.  New York had a spotlight home game last night against the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Knicks were playing their third straight home game, and they had a day of rest to get ready for that game.  New York played well as they took a 5-point lead heading into the fourth quarter.  But the Knicks got out-scored 22-14 over the final 12 minutes and lost 90-87.  Now they must wheel right back and take to the road while playing with a hangover from last night’s loss.  This is simply a terrible spot for the Knicks. 

Charlotte is also struggling this season; the Hornets only have 4 wins just like the Knicks.  However, Charlotte’s situation is much different.  The Hornets are a playoff-caliber team, but they’ve dealt with a slew of injuries while facing some of the best teams from the Western Conference.  Their recent losing streak is quite understandable, so we can easily give them a pass.  Charlotte will get Gary Neal back on the court tonight, and his presence instantly gives the offense a major boost.  The Hornets are also well-rested as this will be just their second game over the last six days, and they are finally playing an opponent that they are better than.  Charlotte is also playing with revenge after losing 96-93 in New York back in early November.  The Hornets lost that game because they scored just 13 points in the fourth quarter.  Charlotte is the better team with motivation, and since they are catching the Knicks in a terrible situational spot, we’ll lay the points with the Hornets in this game on Friday night.

10* Play HORNETS (-).

This is a Big Five rivalry game, and these games tend to be much closer than expected.  Villanova is obviously a good team as they come into this game ranked #9 in the country with a perfect 6-0 record.  However, the Wildcats have played five opponents who like to play a similar fast-paced style; Villanova was simply the better team in all of those games.  Villanova faced one team that likes to play at a slower pace, and that game resulted in a 60-55 win over Michigan.  Tonight will also be the first true road game for Villanova this season, and it comes against an opponent that plays a style which gives the Wildcats fits.     

La Salle is 4-2 on the season, including a perfect 3-0 on their home court.  The Explorers play at an extremely slow pace as they’ve held all six of their opponents to 68 points or less, including four opponents to 60 points or less.  La Salle also matches-up extremely well with Villanova because they have a pair of big men that can control inside the paint.  The Explorers also have a new addition in Auburn transfer Jordan Price who is averaging 17.7 points per game.  His presence has given La Salle a true scoring threat that they’ve lacked over the last couple of seasons.  La Salle will dictate the pace in this game, and since Villanova is not good at playing in the half court, we’ll take the big points with the Explorers in this game on Wednesday night.    

9* Play LA SALLE (+).

Los Angeles comes into this game off a big win last night in Detroit.  The Lakers won that game 106-96 as 2-point underdogs; that was their second straight SU win when getting points.  Los Angeles shot 48.1% (39-81) from the field and 58.8% (10-17) from three-point land last night, but that was against a Detroit team that is simply a mess right now.  The Lakers are taking a major step-up in class tonight, especially on the defensive end of the court.  Los Angeles has struggled against strong defensive teams all season; the Lakers have losses by 13, 18, 23, and 21 points to the top four teams in defensive efficiency.  Los Angeles will face the Wizards who are ranked #5 in defensive efficiency this season, so the Lakers will be hard-pressed to match their offensive production, especially since they are playing on back-to-back nights.   

Washington is flying well under the radar so far this season.  The Wizards are 11-5 on the season, including a strong 7-2 at home.  Washington comes into this game with a day of rest, and this will be just their third game over the last seven days.  The Wizards hold a huge scheduling edge over Los Angeles in this game as the Lakers will be playing their fifth game over the last seven days.  Washington has a terrific defense, especially at home where they are only giving up 93.6 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field.  The Wizards have scored 102 points or more in three of their last five home games, and they will score at will on a Los Angeles defense that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency.  We expect Washington to control this game from start to finish, so we’ll lay the points with the Wizards on Wednesday night.             

10* Play WIZARDS (-).

Portland owns two wins over Denver already this season, one at home and one on the road.  The Trail Blazers won in Denver three weeks ago, but they were 2.5-point underdogs.  Now they are 3-point favorites for some reason, and that creates a lot of value on the Nuggets.  Portland’s win in Denver was the start of a 9-game winning streak for the Blazers; it was also part of a 10-2 ATS run.  Since snapping their winning streak, the Blazers are 0-1-1 ATS with their lone SU win coming against a struggling Minnesota team that owns just four wins on the season.  

Denver is in tremendous current form right now.  The Nuggets have won eight of their last ten games while going 6-3-1 ATS, including a SU win as a home underdog.  Denver was not in good form when they hosted Portland as they were just 1-5 SU overall while riding a 5-game losing streak.  Denver has actually played good basketball against Portland despite the two losses.  The Nuggets have out-scored Portland 104-74 inside the paint.  Denver also got to the free throw line 63 times while Portland had just 43 free throw attempts in the two games.  Denver is playing with legitimate revenge, so we’ll take the points with the Nuggets in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play NUGGETS (+).

Massachusetts beat LSU 92-90 last season, but the Minutemen lost three starters from that team who combined to score 55 of their 92 points in that game.  Massachusetts plays at an extremely fast pace, and that plays right into the hands of LSU.  That was evident in last year’s game with 182 total points scored.  The Minutemen own five wins on the season, but two of those wins have come in state against Boston College and Northeastern while one of their close losses came to Harvard.  Massachusetts will now play on the home court of an opponent out of state for the first time this season, and that makes this a difficult situational and scheduling spot for the Minutemen.    

LSU is in the third year of head coach Johnny Jones’ system, and they finally have the length and athleticism to run their fast-paced attack.  The team won 20 games and advanced to the second round of the NIT tournament last season, and they have a legitimate shot to make the NCAA tournament this season.  LSU also added a huge piece to their coaching staff in Eric Musselman, who is widely regarded as an uptempo coaching guru.  The Tigers’ two losses this season have come against slow-paced teams when LSU was held to less than 70 points.  Massachusetts is not going to hold LSU to less than 70 points, and since the Tigers are simply the better team, we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night.  

9* Play LSU (-).

We lost going against Los Angeles on Saturday night, but we have no hesitation in playing against the Clippers once again tonight.  Los Angeles is once again in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this home game against Minnesota tonight.  The Clippers are playing their first game at home after a 7-game road trip; this is will also be their sixth game in nine nights.  The Clippers had a very successful trip, winning six of their seven games, including four straight blowouts that they won by a combined 60 points.  Los Angeles’ first game back at home is less than an ideal spot, and this is an easy game for them to overlook, especially since they are double digit favorites against a Minnesota team that is just 4-11 on the season.     

Minnesota has struggled since losing a bunch of players to injury.  However, the Timberwolves’ young players are trying to prove themselves, and they’ll bring a good effort tonight against a marquee team like the Clippers.  Despite their poor record, Minnesota will be a double digit underdog for just the fourth time this season.  The Timberwolves’ offense has been able to score on the road this season as they are averaging 101.9 points per game.  A good offensive team is always dangerous in this pointspread range, especially when facing a disinterested opponent.  We’ll take the big points with Minnesota in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

Denver does not come into this game in the best of current form.  The Broncos have alternated wins and losses over their last five games while going just 1-3 ATS over their last four games.  Denver lost 22-7 to St. Louis, and that’s simply an ugly loss not matter what excuses you can make for the Broncos.  Denver was also fortunate to win at home last week over the Dolphins after Miami built a 28-17 lead going into the fourth quarter.  There’s something amiss right now with the Broncos, and that has been clearly evident over their last few games.  Things will not get easier tonight in Kansas City against a team that knows them well and plays a stye of football that beats the Broncos.  The Denver defense has been one of the best in the NFL, but their recent drop in play has changed their numbers drastically.  The Broncos are now allowing 25 points per game on the road against offenses that are averaging 22.9 points per game.

Kansas City has a huge scheduling advantage for this game.  The Chiefs last played on a Thursday night, so they’ve had a mini bye of sorts.  Head coach Andy Reid is one of the best at getting his team ready off a break, and since the Chiefs are coming in off an embarrassing loss in Oakland, we expect a strong bounce back performance.  Kansas City’s offense has been fantastic at home this season where they are averaging 26.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Chiefs have a terrific running game that is gaining 135.8 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush, and their ability to run the ball and control the clock is the exact formula to beat Denver.  The Broncos have been gouged on the ground in their last two games, allowing 228 rushing yards to the Rams and Dolphins.  This is a good spot for Kansas City, especially since they are catching a vulnerable Denver team at the perfect time.  We’ll back the Chiefs in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play CHIEFS (+).

Carolina has been a huge disappointment this year after making the playoffs last season.  The Panthers come into this game in Minnesota with a poor 3-7-1 record.  However, the Panthers are fresh off their bye, and this is the game they will bring their best effort.  Carolina has played a brutal schedule so far this season with games against the Lions, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Packers, Seahawks, and Eagles.  All seven of those teams will likely be in the playoffs this season, so there’s reason to excuse Carolina’s poor record.  The Panthers’ defense has poor seasonal numbers, but again, they’ve played all of the top-scoring offenses in the NFL.  Carolina’s defense will get a much needed class relief in this game against a Minnesota offense that is only averaging 18.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.      

Minnesota is off a close 24-21 home loss to the Packers last Sunday.  The Vikings were in a terrific scheduling spot for that game as they were catching Green Bay off a string of outstanding performances.  The Vikings couldn’t pull out the win, and that will have them playing with a hangover in this game.  Minnesota’s defense is allowing 25 points per game at home this season, so the Panthers’ offense will be able to move the ball with consistency.  Carolina’s offense scored 35 points on Minnesota last season as quarterback Cam Newton completed 20 of his 26 passes for 242 yards with 3 touchdown passes and zero interceptions.  Minnesota has been underdogs in ten of their eleven games this season, and in the one game they were favored, they lost 17-3 at home to the Lions.  We’ll take the points with Carolina in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play PANTHERS (+).

New Orleans comes into this game off three consecutive home losses, and not many will want to back the Saints in this game.  However, this is a very good spot to take New Orleans, especially since the pointspread is inflated a couple of points because of the recent results.  The Saints still possess one of the best offenses in the NFL despite their poor 4-7 record.  New Orleans is averaging 26.2 points per game on a strong 6.3 yards per play.  The Saints have racked up 396 yards of total offense in nine of their eleven games this season; New Orleans had 525 total yards in Monday night’s loss to the Ravens.  New Orleans will be facing a poor Pittsburgh defense that is allowing 23.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Steelers’ defense has been even worse at home where they are giving up 26.8 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  

Pittsburgh is fresh off their bye, but the week off did not come at the best time.  The Steelers were in good form as they had won four of their five games going into the week of rest.  Pittsburgh’s momentum has been interrupted, and that’s not a good thing, especially when facing a potent offense like the Saints.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been extremely vulnerable against the pass this season; the Steelers are allowing opponents to throw for 242.4 yards per games on 7.4 yards per pass attempt.  That defensive weakness will face the offensive strength of the Saints as they throw for 308.8 yards per game on 7.4 yards per pass attempt.  New Orleans is a strong 5-2 ATS as a road underdog going back to last season based on the posted spread for this game, including 1-0 this season when they lost 24-23 at Detroit.  We’ll take the points with New Orleans in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play SAINTS (+).

Cincinnati is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Tampa Bay.  The Bengals will be playing their third straight road game after winning back-to-back games SU as underdogs.  Cincinnati is now laying more than a field goal into an out of conference team, their second straight NFC opponent.  The Bengals will return home after this game to host divisional opponent Pittsburgh, and then they’ll hit the road once again to face another divisional opponent, the Cleveland Browns.  Cincinnati’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 22.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play against opponents who allow 23.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Bengals’ offense has been even worse on the road where they are only averaging 17.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.         

Tampa Bay is in a good bounce back spot for this game against Cincinnati.  The Buccaneers come in off a misleading 21-13 loss in Chicago; Tampa Bay out-yarded the Bears 367-204 in that game.  Since their bye, the Buccaneers have played good football despite going just 1-4 SU.  Tampa Bay out-gained four of those five opponents while their defense allowed 22 points or less in four of those games.  Overall, Tampa Bay’s defense has actually played better than average this season.  The Bucs are giving up 5.7 yards per play against offenses that average 5.8 yards per play.  The defense is taking a step down in class against the weak road offense of the Bengals as mentioned above.  This is simply a bad spot for Cincinnati, so we’ll take the points with Tampa Bay in this game on Sunday.  

9* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

San Diego has played good football since coming off their bye.  The Chargers have won back-to-back games since their week off; they lost three straight games going into their bye.  San Diego has thoroughly out-played their last two opponents while out-gaining them by a combined 710-550 and out-scoring them 40-30.  San Diego’s offense has played above average football this season despite dealing with multiple injuries to their running backs.  Overall, the Chargers are averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 5.4 yards per play.  San Diego’s offense will be facing a Baltimore defense that is giving up 5.8 yards per play.  The Ravens gave up 525 yards of total offense on a whopping 8.0 yards per play to the Saints last week. 

Baltimore is off a big 34-27 win in New Orleans on Monday night.  The Ravens will be hard-pressed to match that performance, especially on a short week.  Baltimore’s offense has actually underperformed at home this season.  The Ravens are averaging 26 points per game on 5.7 yards per play; overall they average 26.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  San Diego’s defense has been pretty good all season as they are only giving up 19.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  This isn’t the best of scheduling spots for the Ravens after going into last week’s primetime game in New Orleans off their bye and winning outright as underdogs.  We’ll take the points with San Diego in this early game on Sunday.  

9* Play CHARGERS (+).

Los Angeles is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Utah tonight.  The Clippers are playing the final game of their 7-game road trip, and this is will also be their fifth game in seven nights.  Los Angeles has to play on a back-to-back set with tonight’s game coming in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  The Clippers have had a very successful trip, winning five of their six games so far, including last night’s 102-85 blowout win in Houston.  The Clippers will return home after this game, and they’ll have a full three days off before their next game, so this is an easy game for them to overlook, especially since it comes against a Utah team that is just 5-11 on the season.     

Utah has had a full two days off to prepare for this game against Los Angeles, so the Jazz hold a huge scheduling edge.  Utah comes in on a 4-game losing streak and that ensures we’ll get a focused effort from the home team tonight.  Utah has played competitively at home this season as three of their five wins have come on their court.  The Jazz have shown a strong ability to bounce back strong off a SU loss this season.  Utah is 7-3 ATS when playing off a loss, including a strong 3-1 SU and ATS record when playing at home off a road loss.  The Jazz have one major weakness, and that is keeping opponents off the offensive glass.  Utah’s blowout losses this season have come against strong offensive rebounding teams.  Los Angeles is the worst offensive rebounding team in the NBA as they rank 30th out of 30 teams.  With the Clippers in a terrible scheduling spot, we’ll take the points with Utah in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play JAZZ (+).

Pittsburgh opened the season at 3-0, but the Panthers have gone just 2-6 since.  Even worse is the fact that six of those eight games were played on Pittsburgh’s home field.  The Panthers did not play a tough slate of opponents at all as the best team they faced during that span was Georgia Tech, a game they lost 56-28.  Pittsburgh’s offense has decent seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a group of defenses that are allowing 28 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Panthers will face a Miami defense that is allowing just 20.2 points per game on 4.1 yards per play at home this season.  The Panthers are obviously taking a huge step-up in defensive class with the Hurricanes allowing 7.8 points per game and 1.5 yards per play less than the opponents Pittsburgh has faced this season.

Miami comes into this game with just a 6-5 record, but the Hurricanes are significantly better than that record indicates.  Four of their five losses this season have come against Louisville, Nebraska, Georgia Tech, and Florida State who are a combined 37-8 on the season.  Miami has a terrific offense that is averaging 30.5 points per game on a whopping 6.9 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s defense has played below average football as they are giving up 25.8 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus offenses that are only averaging 24.8 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  Miami’s offense only scored 13 points last week in a loss at Virginia, but that was a huge flat spot after blowing a 23-7 lead over Florida State the week before.  Miami will bounce back with a big effort in their final home game of the season, so we’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes as they win this game in blowout fashion on Saturday night. 

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Michigan State comes into this game with a solid 9-2 SU and ATS record.  The Spartans lost to Ohio State three weeks ago, but since that loss, they’ve steamrolled their last two opponents by a combined score of 82-18.  However, they played two overmatched teams that have terrible defenses.  Michigan State will finally play a competent opponent that also has a fantastic defense.  According to my strength of schedule ratings, the Spartans have played a very weak schedule.  The Spartans’ offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 30.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play as a group this season.  Michigan State is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against Penn State in this game.  In fact, the Spartans will face a Nittany Lions’ defense that is allowing 14.2 points per game and 1.8 yards per play less per game than the opponents Michigan State has faced this season.

Penn State opened the season at 4-0, but they’ve gone just 2-5 since.  However, they’ve been competitive as four of those five losses have come by 7 points or less.  Penn State has played outstanding defense this season.  The Nittany Lions are giving up just 16.2 points per game on 4.1 yards per play versus opponents averaging 26.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Penn State’s run defense has been tremendous as they give up just 81.9 yards per game on a minuscule 2.5 yards per rush.  Michigan State’s defense has been much worse on the road where they are giving up 27.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play compared to just 20.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play overall this season.  Penn State is set for a big effort in their final home game of the season, so we’ll take the big points with the Nittany Lions in this game on Saturday afternoon.      

9* Play PENN STATE (+).

Notre Dame comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Irish are just 1-4 SU and ATS over their last five games as their defense has completely fallen apart.  Since their 31-27 loss at Florida State, the Irish defense has given up 39, 55, 43, and 31 points.  Notre Dame allowed a total of 1,822 yards of offense in those games to non-explosive teams like Northwestern, Navy, and Louisville.  Notre Dame’s offense has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 25.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Irish will face a USC defense that is only allowing 5.0 yards per play on their home field this season.  Notre Dame has played in seven consecutive emotional games, including last week’s 31-28 home loss to Louisville after missing a chip shot field goal that would have sent the game to overtime.  The Irish now take to the road to face a hungry team off a loss and looking for revenge.

USC was embarrassed last week by UCLA in a 38-20 loss.  The Trojans played one of their worst games of the season, especially on offense.  The Trojans had just 276 yards of total offense in that game despite averaging 33.8 points per game on 441.5 yards per game while gaining 5.9 yards per play this season.  USC’s offense will bounce back with a much better performance in this game, especially since they are averaging 43 points per game on 6.3 yards per play at home this season.  Notre Dame’s defense has been terrible on the road all season as they are giving up 30.8 points per game away from home.  The Trojans are also looking to break their 2-game losing streak to the Irish; USC had won 7 of the prior 8 meetings against Notre Dame.  The Trojans played a home game off a road loss earlier this season, and they won that game 35-10.  We expect a similar result here, so we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Saturday afternoon.    

9* Play USC (-).

Phoenix and Denver just played on Wednesday night with the Suns winning 120-112 on their home court.  The two teams will play tonight in a quick turnaround rematch in Denver, and we expect a different outcome.  Phoenix is in a tough scheduling spot for this game.  The Suns are coming off a 6-game road trip that began on the West Coast in Los Angeles, travelled thru the East Coast, and ended in Canada.  The Suns went 4-2 on that trip, and then beat Denver in their first game home.  After celebrating Thanksgiving yesterday, the Suns take to the road once again and have to play in the thin air and altitude of Denver before returning home for two more games.  This is one of those games in which it’s easy to envision the Suns bringing less than their best effort, especially since they just beat Denver two days ago.

Denver is playing much better basketball now than they were earlier in the season.  The Nuggets are 6-2 over their last eight games; they went just 1-6 over their previous seven games.  Denver returns home off that 8-point loss in Phoenix, so we expect a strong performance tonight.  The Nuggets out-scored the Suns 25-23 in fast break points, and they also out-scored Phoenix 48-44 inside the paint.  Denver also got to the free throw line 34 times in that game compared to just 21 free throw attempts for Phoenix.  The Suns won that game from beyond the arc as they shot 52% (13-25) from three-point land while one of their bench players, Gerald Green, scored 24 points in 26 minutes of action.  It’s highly unlikely both of those will repeat tonight.  Denver is catching Phoenix in a terrible spot, so we’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Friday night.             

9* Play NUGGETS.

This is the final of the NIT Season Tip-Off tournament, and the game will be played at Madison Square Garden.  The New York venue clearly gives St. John’s a home court advantage in this game.  Gonzaga has steamrolled teams en route to their 5-0 start this season.  The Bulldogs are certainly a good team, but they did lose guard Josh Perkins to a broken jaw in their 88-76 win over Georgia on Wednesday night.  Gonzaga shot 50% (26-52) from the field in that game, and they got to the free throw line a whopping 35 times.  The Bulldogs hit an incredible 91.4% (32-35) from the free throw line, but the refs were whistle happy as the game saw a total of 70 free throw attempts.  That’s unlikely to happen again tonight, especially with Gonzaga playing the home town team.     

St. John’s has a wealth of talent, but they don’t always bring their best effort.  The Johnnies have been inconsistent under head coach Steve Lavin, but this is a huge game for St. John’s.  There’s no doubt the Johnnies have the talent to be a NCAA tournament team, and a win in this game will go a long ways come March.  St. John’s is off a terrific defensive game against Minnesota on Wednesday night.  The Johnnies held Minnesota to just 61 points on 35.9% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Golden Gophers only got to the free throw line 16 times, so Gonzaga cannot rely on getting free points in this game.  Overall, St. John’s is holding opponents to just 57.3 points per game on 31.3% shooting from the field and 29.2% shooting from three-point land.  St. John’s will slow this game down with their strong defense, so we’ll take the points in a game that comes right down to the wire.         

9* Play ST. JOHN’S (+).

Stanford has been up and down all season.  The Cardinal come into this game with just a 6-5 record, including a 2-3 mark on the road.  Stanford hasn’t won back-to-back games since September; they beat California 38-17 last week despite giving up 410 yards of total offense.  Stanford’s defense has been their calling card this season, but they’ve been leaky as of late.  The Cardinal have allowed 82 points and 1,182 yards over their last three games on an average of 5.4 yards per play.  Stanford’s offense has been below average this season while scoring just 25.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Those poor numbers have come against defenses allowing an average of 31.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Stanford’s offense has been even worse on the road where they are only averaging 19.6 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.          

UCLA is finally playing up to their preseason expectations.  The Bruins are 9-2 overall, winning five consecutive games after losing back-to-back games to open October.  UCLA is off a big 38-20 win over USC last week, and we expect them to carry momentum into this game.  The Bruins have a fantastic offense that is averaging 35 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses giving up 26.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  UCLA has put-up 406 yards of offense or more in ten of their eleven games this season.  The Bruins are well-balanced as they run for 196 yards and throw for 299 yards per game.  UCLA has also played strong defense at home this season, holding their opponents to just 4.9 yards per play.  The Bruins will contain the weak Stanford offense in this game, especially since the Cardinal will be without their top receiver, Ty Montgomery, who is out with a shoulder injury.  Stanford is clearly down this season, and this is UCLA’s best chance to beat the Cardinal for the first time in six years.  We’ll lay the points with the Bruins in this game on Friday afternoon.      

10* Play UCLA (-).

Arizona State and Arizona is a heated rivalry game that has been dominated by the Sun Devils in recent years.  Arizona State has won this game two straight years, but we expect that mini streak to end this afternoon.  The Sun Devils are 9-2 on the season, and they’ve gone 2-1 in their last three games despite getting out-yarded by their opponents in all three games.  Arizona State has allowed 31, 35, and 31 points in their last three games while giving up 487, 498, and 622 yards of offense in those games.  The Sun Devils had held six of their previous eight opponents to 24 points or less, so it’s clear Arizona State’s play has declined despite winning.  Overall, Arizona State’s defense is allowing 5.7 yards per play this season versus offenses that are also averaging 5.7 yards per play.  The Sun Devils are vulnerable on the ground; they’ve allowed 203 rushing yards or more in five games this season.  Arizona averages 195.7 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush, so the Sun Devils’ defense will be gouged on the ground in this game.    

Arizona also comes into this game with a 9-2 record.  The Wildcats have a strong offense that is averaging 36.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Arizona has terrific balance on offense as they also pass for 299 yards per game.  The Wildcats are also in much better defensive form than the Sun Devils.  Arizona has held their last four opponents to 26 points or less, including two opponents to 17 points or less.  They’ve limited those opponents to just 5.2 yards per play.  Arizona has taken good care of the ball all season as they have 1 turnover or less in seven of their eleven games, and 2 turnovers or less in ten of their eleven games this season.  Arizona QB Anu Solomon re-injured his ankle in last week’s 42-10 win at Utah, and he’s questionable to play here.  But even if he doesn’t, Jesse Scroggins is a senior who is plenty capable of running the Arizona offense with efficiency.  Arizona is in a good spot to beat their rival, and since they are playing the better football right now, we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Friday afternoon.     

9* Play ARIZONA (-).

Seattle comes into this game with a 7-4 SU record after beating Arizona 19-3 on Sunday.  The Seahawks have played much better football than a team with 4 losses would suggest.  Seattle ranks #6 in overall efficiency metrics despite the so-so record.  The Seahawks have played above average football on both sides of the ball.  Seattle’s offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses allowing 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ defense is allowing just 19.2 points per game and 5.2 yards per play.  Those strong defensive numbers have come against offenses that are averaging 5.7 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense will be a stern test for San Francisco’s offense considering the 49ers have faced a weak group of defenses that are giving up 23.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.

San Francisco is off another pedestrian win after beating Washington 17-13 on Sunday.  The 49ers only beat the Giants 16-10 the week before despite owning a +4 turnover margin.  Over their past four games, the 49ers have benefitted from 11 turnovers by their opponents yet they lost a game and won the others by just 6, 3, and 3 point margins.  San Francisco’s offense has not played good football at all this season.  The 49ers are averaging just 20.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  And as noted above, San Francisco has played weak defenses.  The 49ers will now face a Seattle defense that is allowing 4.7 points per game less than the opponents the 49ers have faced.  Seattle is the better team, so we’ll take the points with the Seahawks in this game on Thursday night. 

10* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

Washington and Cleveland just played on Friday night with the Wizards winning 91-78 on their home court.  That game was not even that close as Washington simply dominated from start to finish.  The Wizards shot 48.8% (41-84) from the field, and they got a monster game from John Wall who scored 28 points.  However, things are much different for the rematch tonight in Cleveland.  The Wizards went into that first meeting rested while playing their fourth straight home game.  Washington also had Nene on the court; he scored 10 points in 28 minutes.  Nene’s biggest asset is defense, and he completely took Kevin Love out of the game while holding him to just 8 points.  Nene will not play tonight because of injury, and his absence completely changes the complexion of this game.

Cleveland has struggled this season; there’s no denying that fact.  But this is a big revenge game for the Cavs after getting embarrassed on national TV by the Wizards just five days ago.  “We just got to bring it. They had us on our heels all game last time,” LeBron James said.  Cleveland has been a much better team at home this season despite having just a 3-4 record on their court.  The Cavs are shooting 47.6% from the field at home compared to 42.0% on the road, and they are shooting 41.6% from three-point land at home compared to 30.4% on the road.  Cleveland is off a confidence-building 106-74 win over Orlando on Monday night while Washington is off a heartbreaking 106-102 home loss to Atlanta last night.  Cleveland is in a good spot to get a revenge win, so we’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Wednesday night.    

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Sacramento is a much improved team this season.  The Kings come into tonight’s game in New Orleans with an 8-5 record.  Head coach Mike Mallone is a defensive mastermind, and in his second season, the Kings’ defense is significantly better.  Sacramento ranks 13th in defensive efficiency despite playing elite offensive teams like the Warriors, Blazers, Clippers, Suns and Mavericks.  The Kings just hosted the Pelicans a week ago and lost by 6 points.  However, Sacramento out-scored New Orleans in three of four quarters and held a 10-point margin.  The Kings scored 60 of their 100 points inside the paint, and with the Pelicans missing one of their better interior defenders, Sacramento will hold a big advantage inside once again tonight.

New Orleans is a pretty good team, but the Pelicans are dealing with some key injury losses.  Eric Gordon hurt his shoulder in their last game, and he will be out indefinitely.  Gordon makes the Pelicans’ offense go, and when he missed time last season, we saw a sharp decline in their play.  New Orleans is also missing Omer Asik, and his absence creates a big hole inside the paint.  With the loss of Gordon and Asik, the Pelicans’ rotation is completely turned upside down, and that’s not a good thing considering New Orleans has one of the worst benches in the NBA.  New Orleans’ defense is not in good form as they’ve given up 100 points or more in five of their last seven games.  Over their last five games, the Pelicans are allowing their opponents to shoot 46.8% from the field.  We’ll take the points with Sacramento in this game on Tuesday night. 

10* Play KINGS (+).

Oregon is not in good shape for this game tonight against VCU.  The Ducks just played last night, and this will be their third game in five days.  Teams playing multiple games over a short span and without rest are always at a major disadvantage when facing the pressure and havoc of VCU.  The Ducks are also an extremely thin team after losing six players prior to the start of the season.  Oregon lost another player last night when Dwayne Benjamin injured his ankle.  His absence makes the Ducks a shell of the team they projected to have before the season began.  Even with a full compliment of players, Oregon was picked to finish 8th in the Pac 12 this season.  The Ducks are in a terrible spot tonight, especially since their opponent is off an embarrassing performance. 

VCU got crushed by Villanova last night.  The Rams lost 77-53, and the game wasn’t even that close.  However, Villanova is a very good team built with veterans who simply do not turn the ball over.  Teams like that give VCU fits; Oregon is the complete opposite as the Ducks are young and inexperienced.  VCU has a veteran team that returned 69.3% of their minutes played from last year’s 26-9 team.  The Rams are just one of three teams to win 26 games or more over the last five seasons; Duke and Syracuse are the others.  VCU plays at a furious pace, and their up and down style wears teams out, especially early in the season.  The Rams have exceptional conditioning, and against an inexperienced and thin team like Oregon, VCU’s ability to wreak havoc and create turnovers makes this game a complete mismatch.  The Rams are the better team by a wide margin, so we expect VCU to bounce back strong and win this game easily on Tuesday night. 

9* Play VCU (-).

Los Angeles is off an ugly 107-91 loss in Memphis last night.  The Clippers were terrible on both ends of the court; they scored 21 points or less in three of four quarters while giving up 26 points or more in three of four quarters.  Overall, Los Angeles shot just 41.6% (32-77) from the field and 28% (7-25) from three-point land.  Off the loss and ugly performance, we expect the Clippers to bounce back strong tonight.  Los Angeles has shown a strong ability to play well off a loss this season, and in fact the Clippers are a perfect 4-0 in this situation.  Los Angeles also catches the perfect opponent at the perfect time to get another win on the season.

Charlotte is a team we like going forward, but right now, the Hornets are struggling mightily.  Charlotte has lost five consecutive games and seven of their last eight games overall.  The Hornets have a slew of injuries, including their best defensive player, Michael Kidd-Gilchrest.  Charlotte is also off a heartbreaking 94-93 loss last night in Miami after they blew a 5-point lead going into the fourth quarter.  The Hornets rallied from a 9-point halftime deficit, so that game took a lot out of Charlotte, especially since they are a shorthanded team.  Los Angeles is the much better team, and in a focused spot, we’ll lay the points with the Clippers on Monday night.             

9* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Washington comes into this game off an ugly 27-7 home loss to Tampa Bay.  The Redskins went into that game off their bye, so the loss was even more embarrassing.  The best thing for Washington is to get out on the road, and get away from all the distractions.  The Redskins are in a good spot to bounce back with a strong effort today.  Washington’s defense has allowed just 5.6 yards per play on the road this season.  The Redskins also have a strong run defense that is allowing just 101.8 yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush.  That defensive strength will be a huge factor in this game, especially since the 49ers’ best offense is their ability to run the football.

San Francisco is off a pedestrian 16-10 win over the Giants last week.  The 49ers should have won that game much more decisively since they had 5 interceptions in the game.  San Francisco’s offense generated very little against a bad New York defense; the 49ers had just 333 yards of total offense despite holding the ball for over 34 minutes.  Over their last three games, the 49ers have a +5 turnover margin yet they own wins of just 6 points and 3 points (in overtime).  San Francisco is not blowing teams out right now, and there’s no way they should be laying more than a touchdown into any team, especially considering how bad their offense has played this season.  The 49ers’ offense is averaging just 21.1 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus opponents allowing 23.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Since four of San Francisco’s six wins have come by 6 points or less, we’ll take the generous points with Washington in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

Arizona has the best record in the NFL at 9-1.  However, that record is phony as the Cardinals have not played remotely close to an elite level.  Arizona ranks just 15th overall in efficiency metrics with the #23 offense and #6 defense.  The Cardinals’ offense is even worse now that Drew Stanton is playing for the injured Carson Palmer.  In their 14-6 win over Detroit last week, the Cardinals were shutout in three quarters while only gaining a total of 352 yards of offense.  Stanton and the Cardinals must now take to the road and play in the toughest stadium in the NFL against a Seattle team that is coming off a loss.  Arizona’s defense has been worse on the road this season where they are allowing 21.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play compared to their seasonal numbers of 17.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  

Seattle comes into this game with only a 6-4 record, and because of that, the Seahawks appear to have regressed from last season.  However, Seattle ranks #7 in overall efficiency metrics despite the so-so record.  The Seahawks will come with a strong effort after losing in Kansas City last week.  Seattle has played above average football on both sides of the ball.  The Seahawks’ offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses allowing 5.7 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ defense is allowing 5.2 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 5.7 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense has been even better at home this season where they are only giving up 4.9 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense has been atrocious on the road as they are only averaging 4.9 yards per play, and most of those games were with Carson Palmer.  Seattle is the better team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Seahawks in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

St. Louis was in a terrific scheduling and situational spot for their home game against Denver last week.  The Rams were catching Denver on their third consecutive road game while the Broncos were also off a 24-point win in their game before.  The Rams took advantage of a disinterested Denver team and won 22-7.  That was not a true result considering the significant difference between the Rams and Broncos.  But off that win, St. Louis is getting a lot of respect in the pointspread, especially since they are an underdog of less than a touchdown.  In their last three road games, the Rams were underdogs of 7, 7.5, and 10.5 points.  Overall, St. Louis has underperformed on both sides of the ball this season.  The Rams’ offense is averaging 18.5 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses allowing 21.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  St. Louis’ defense is allowing 25.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.            

San Diego is 6-4 on the season, including a 4-1 record at home.  All four of their home wins have come by 7 points or more.  San Diego is playing their second consecutive home game since their bye, so they’ve been basically home for the whole month of November.  To compare, St. Louis will be playing their fourth road game over the last five weeks.  That’s a huge scheduling edge in favor of the Chargers.  San Diego’s defense has been dominating at home this season.  The Chargers are only giving up 12.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play against offenses that average 21.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Rams’ offense has been awful on the road as they are only scoring 16.2 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  We’ll lay the points with San Diego in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CHARGERS (-).

Green Bay looks like one of the best teams in football.  The Packers have steamrolled their last two opponents, Chicago and Philadelphia, by a combined score of 108-34.  However, both of those games came at home and now they must take to the road and lay more than a touchdown into a division opponent that is looking for some revenge after a 42-10 loss in Green Bay earlier this season.  The Packers were in a great spot for that win over Minnesota as they were catching the Vikings just four days after their 41-28 upset win over the Falcons.  Green Bay’s offense is terrific, but their defense has underperformed this season in allowing 22.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play to opponents who average 22.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.        

Minnesota is in a good bounce back spot for this game against Green Bay.  The Vikings come in off a 21-13 loss in Chicago, and a return home will bring out Minnesota’s best effort.  Overall, Minnesota’s defense has actually played better than average this season.  The Vikings are giving up 22 points per game on 5.7 yards per play against offenses that average 23.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Minnesota’s pass defense is allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.0 yards per pass attempt.  The Vikings have a good enough defense to contain Green Bay’s offense, especially since the Packers are just 2-3 SU on the road this season with one of those wins only coming by 3 points.  This is a bad spot for Green Bay, so we’ll take the generous points with Minnesota in this game on Sunday.  

9* Play VIKINGS (+).

Detroit is quietly having a good season.  The Lions come into this game with a 7-3 record with one of those losses coming at the 9-1 Cardinals.  That loss came last week in Arizona when Detroit was in a very difficult situational spot after three straight comeback wins.  The Lions still only allowed 14 points on 352 yards of total offense last week.  Detroit’s defense has been fantastic this season, and in fact, the Lions rank #1 in defensive efficiency metrics.  Overall, the Lions are giving up just 15.6 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Those strong defensive numbers have come against offenses that average 22.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

New England is on a roll as they’ve won six straight games while going 5-1 ATS.  However, this is a major flat spot in the Patriots’ schedule, and we do not expect one of their best performances.  New England went into last week’s primetime game in Indianapolis off their bye, and they blew out the Colts 42-20 as 3-point underdogs.  They beat Denver 43-21 in their game before the bye, and next week they are playing at Green Bay.  The Patriots’ offense will be taking a big step-up in class against Detroit’s defense, especially since the Lions allow 7.3 points per game less than the defenses New England has faced this season.  The Patriots’ defense is allowing 5.7 yards per play, so the Lions’ offense will have success moving the ball.  We’ll take the points with the strong defensive underdog in this game on Sunday.      

9* Play LIONS (+).

We lost a Best Bet on Miami Florida last week after they blew a 23-7 lead at home versus Florida State.  The Hurricanes were in a tremendous scheduling spot for that game as they came in off a bye.  That was Miami’s biggest game of the season, and this is a major letdown spot for the Hurricanes after losing 30-26 when Florida State scored the winning touchdown with three minutes left to play.  Miami must take to the road and lay points into a Virginia team they beat 45-26 last season.  The Hurricanes have little interest in this game, and these comments by head coach Al Golden do nothing but support that opinion.  “Our kids prepared like they were going to win all week and had a confidence all week, so that’s not going to be lost in this.  They’re all disappointed.  We’re crushed from it.”

Virginia is catching Miami at the perfect time.  The Cavaliers come into this game fresh off a bye week, and since this is their final home game of the season, we expect Virginia to play one of their best games of the year.  This game was originally scheduled for 12 pm (Noon) ET, but has been moved to 7 pm ET for national TV which means the temperature will be in the mid-30's at kickoff and definitely uncomfortable for the players from sunny and warm southern Florida.  Virginia's head coach Mike London is fighting to keep his job and the Cavaliers are looking for another win to inch closer to becoming bowl eligible, so they have plenty of motivation.  Virginia has a good defense that is only giving up 25.2 points per game on 5.0 yards per play against offenses that average 30.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Virginia’s defense has been even better at home where they only allow 20.3 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  This is a great spot for Virginia, and a lousy one for Miami, so we’ll take the home underdog in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play VIRGINIA (+).

Louisville has gone under the radar all season.  The Cardinals come into this game at 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS.  Louisville has been strong despite instability at the quarterback position.  Starter Will Gardner has been on and off the field with injuries; he’s now out for the remainder of the year.  Freshman Reggie Bonnafon has started a pair of games, and he’s played in a handful of others so he has plenty of experience.  Louisville’s success this season has been because of their terrific defense that is only giving up 17.8 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.  The Cardinals have put up those strong defensive numbers against offenses that are averaging 25.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Louisville’s strong defense has allowed them to play close games as their three losses have come by a total of 19 points this season.           

Notre Dame comes into this game in terrible current form.  The Irish are just 1-3 SU and ATS over their last four games as their defense has completely fallen apart.  Since their 31-27 loss at Florida State, the Irish defense has given up 39, 55, and 43 points.  Notre Dame allowed a total of 1,413 yards of offense in those games to non-explosive teams like Northwestern and Navy.  Notre Dame’s offense has faced a group of defenses that are allowing 26.1 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  The Irish will take a big step-up in defensive class against Louisville in this game, especially since the Cardinals allow 8.3 points per game less than the opponents Notre Dame has faced.  Quarterback Everett Golson is playing with a sprained joint in his throwing shoulder, and that can’t be good when going against a strong defense.  Louisville comes into this game fresh off their bye while Notre Dame has played in six consecutive emotional games.  We’ll take the points in this game on Saturday afternoon.   

9* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Arizona comes into this game with an 8-2 record.  The Wildcats’ two losses have come against USC by 2 points (28-26) and UCLA by 10 points (17-7).  Arizona is an ugly 3-7 ATS this season, but they’ve only been underdogs in two games, winning 31-24 outright at Oregon and failing to cover in their UCLA loss.  Arizona will now be an underdog to a Utah team that has only been favored in four of their ten games this season.  Arizona has a strong offense that is averaging 35.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Wildcats have terrific balance on offense as they run for 186 yards and pass for 307 yards per game.  Arizona has also taken good care of the ball all season as they have 1 turnover or less in seven of their ten games, and 2 turnovers or less in nine of their ten games this season.    

Utah is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game against Arizona.  The Utes come in off seven consecutive emotional games, including last week’s overtime win at Stanford as 10-point underdogs.  Utah’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 5.1 yards per play against defenses that allow 5.5 yards per play.  Utah’s offense ranks #73 in efficiency metrics despite playing a collection of weak defenses that are giving up 29 points per game.  To compare, Arizona’s offense is ranked #37 in efficiency metrics.  Utah’s defense has allowed 390 yards or more in five of their ten games, and a team’s defense suffers the most when playing in a letdown spot.  Arizona handled Utah 35-24 last season, and since these teams are comparable to last year’s teams, there’s no reason the Wildcats can’t beat the Utes once again.  Utah’s four conference wins this season have all come by 6 points or less, including three wins by 3 points or less.  In a game that comes right down to the wire, we’ll take Arizona plus the points on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play ARIZONA (+).

Cleveland lost for us on Wednesday night when San Antonio beat them 92-90.  But we have no hesitation in backing the Cavaliers once again tonight.  The Cavaliers led for the majority of that game, and the Spurs simply made the plays at the end to win.  Cleveland led by as many as 11 points while San Antonio’s biggest lead of the game was only 6 points.  The Cavaliers’ offense did not play up to their level as they shot just 44.6% (37-83) from the field.  Cleveland wasn’t aggressive enough either as they had just 13 free throw attempts in the entire game.  LeBron James and Kevin Love both had off nights as they combined to scored just 25 points on 34.5% (10-29) shooting from the field.  That duo attempted just 3 total free throws.  Cleveland scored just 97 points in their previous loss, and off back-to-back bad offensive games, we expect the Cavaliers’ offense to explode tonight.  Cleveland has scored 100 points or more in six of their ten games so far this season. 

Washington is 7-3 on the season, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule so far.  The Wizards own wins over Orlando (2x), New York, Milwaukee, Indiana (2x), and Detroit.  Those five teams are a combined 23-39 on the season with only one team, Milwaukee, having a winning record at 7-5.  The Wizards’ defense is not in good current form as they’ve given up 103 points or more in three of their last five games.  Overall this season, Washington has allowed 90 points or more in nine of their ten games, and those games were against weak offensive teams.  Cleveland has one of the best offenses in the league, so the Wizards will be hard-pressed to keep them under 100 points in this game, especially since the Cavaliers are off back-to-back poor performances.  We’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers in this game on Friday night.             

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

George Washington is a very good team that returned four starters from last year’s 24-9 team that advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament.  The Colonials also got Kethan Savage back from injury; he broke his foot in January and missed eight weeks.  George Washington is 2-0 on the season with a pair of blowout wins over inferior opponents.  One thing was clear in both wins; the Colonials’ exceptional defense from last season has carried over.  George Washington held their opponents to just 41.6% from the field last season.  So far this season, the Colonials are holding opponents to just 46.5 points per game on 31.8% shooting from the field and 21.4% shooting from three-point land.    

Virginia is a good team that is well coached.  The Cavaliers were terrific last season while winning 30 games and earning a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament.  They return seven of their top nine players from last season, so they project to be a very good team once again.  However, the two players they lost, Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell, were vital components to their team.  Harris was the leading scorer while Mitchell was their best defender.  Head coach Tony Bennett knows how important those two guys were to the team’s success.  “That was what set our team apart, how cohesive they were. You take away two talented guys, and it’s a different identity and mentality. Can we replace those intangibles Joe and Akil brought at such a high level?”  Both teams play at a slow pace and focus on defense, so we’ll take the big points in a low-scoring defensive slugfest. 

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (+).

Kansas City is playing some of the best football in the NFL right now.  The Chiefs have won and covered five consecutive games since their bye, and there’s no reason their streak won’t continue tonight in Oakland.  Kansas City has an exceptional rushing attack that is averaging 140 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  The Chiefs will run all over a terrible Raiders’ defense that is in terrible current form.  Oakland has allowed 335 rushing yards on 83 carries over their last three games.  Overall, Kansas City’s offense is averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are giving up 5.4 yards per play.   

Oakland is still winless on the season; the Raiders come into this game with an 0-10 record.  The Raiders are simply a horrible team, and tonight’s match-up is a terrible one for them.  Oakland’s offense is awful as they are averaging just 15.2 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  Those weak numbers have come against poor defenses that are giving up 5.4 yards per play.  Kansas City has a strong defense that is only allowing 17.1 points per game this season.  The Chiefs have not allowed a rushing touchdown all season, and overall they’ve given up just 16 touchdowns in ten games.  Kansas City is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Thursday night. 

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

SMU comes into this game off an ugly 72-56 loss at Gonzaga on Monday night.  While the Mustangs did not play well at all in that game, there’s not much shame in that loss because Gonzaga will be one of the top teams in the country this season.  Head coach Larry Brown has been able to get his team to bounce back strong off losses; SMU went 7-2 SU when playing off a loss last season with all seven wins coming by 3 points or more.  The Mustangs won 27 games last season, and with their best players all back this season, SMU projects to be an excellent team once again.   

Indiana is 2-0 on the season with those wins coming by a combined 70 points.  However, the Hoosiers played two inferior opponents in Mississippi Valley State and Texas Southern.  Indiana hit an incredible 55.3% (21-38) of their three-pointers in those games which aided their big margins of victory.  The Hoosiers were picked to finish 10th in the Big 10 this season, and with a huge step-up in class, we expect Indiana to regress sharply in this game.  Indiana lost five of their best players from last season, including three terrific frontcourt players.  The Hoosiers are extremely weak inside the paint, and they’ll be at a major disadvantage against the Mustangs in this game.  SMU is simply the much better team, and since they are off a loss, we’ll lay the points with the Mustangs in this game on Thursday night.         

9* Play SMU (-).

San Antonio has been up and down this season.  The Spurs are obviously focused on just getting thru the regular season with a healthy team with an eye towards the playoffs.  San Antonio has already started to sit players in certain spots, and while we don’t expect that to be the case in this game, it certainly shows the mindset they have in navigating thru the regular season.  San Antonio is just 6-4 overall, including a 3-3 record on the road.  The Spurs’ offense is averaging just 92.7 points per game on the road while only averaging 41.5% shooting from the field this season.  San Antonio will need to increase their scoring by a big margin if they want to be competitive tonight as Cleveland averages 108 points per game on their home court.   

Cleveland hasn’t started this season as most expected.  The Cavaliers are just 5-4 overall, including a 2-2 record at home.  Cleveland does come into this game off a 106-97 home loss to Denver in their last game.  The Cavaliers shot just 43% (34-79) from the field; it was just the third time this season Cleveland was held to less than 100 points.  Cleveland has bounced back strong off losses this season; they are 2-1 SU and ATS with their lone loss coming on a back-to-back set when playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  This is a much bigger game for Cleveland, especially since they are coming off an ugly loss.  We’ll lay the points with the Cavaliers on Wednesday night.             

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Texas Tech has a lot of question marks coming into this season.  The Red Raiders are picked to finish dead last in the Big 12 conference as their roster was turned upside down with players transferring in the off-season.  Texas Tech has just two guys returning with any experience, and one of their better players, Aaron Ross, is out with a knee injury.  Head coach Tubby Smith knows his team is in for a long season, especially early on.  “We’re going to be a lot younger,” Smith said.  “It’s going to take some time for our guys to mature and get experience.”  

LSU is set to win right away.  The Tigers are in the third year of head coach Johnny Jones’ system, and they finally have the length and athleticism to run their fast-paced attack.  The team won 20 games and advanced to the second round of the NIT tournament last season.  LSU also added a huge piece to their coaching staff in Eric Musselman, who is widely regarded as an uptempo coaching guru.  LSU scored 93 points after shooting 52.2% from the field in their season opening win.  The Tigers simply have too much offense for Texas Tech, and since LSU is in a better position to win right now, we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night.  

9* Play LSU (-).

Tuesday, Nov. 18

NCAA Football

No official NCAAF play tonight, but I do have a light TV opinion below.

(1% opinion)  OHIO +2.5 (vs. Northern Illinois) - 8:00 pm ET (ESPNU) #104

Northern Illinois is having another solid season; the Huskies come into this game with an 8-2 record.  Despite the strong record, Northern Illinois has actually underperformed on both sides of the ball this season.  The Huskies have faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 31.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Huskies are averaging 31.5 points per game, but just 5.8 yards per play against those opponents.  Northern Illinois’ defense is allowing 25.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus offenses that only average 21.1 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.    

Ohio is just 5-5 on the season, but the Bobcats have actually played better than their record indicates, especially since their best players have missed games with injuries.  The Bobcats have quarterback Derrius Vick and running back A.J. Ouellette back on the field and healthy.  Those two guys make Ohio’s offense much better, and since Ohio comes in off a bye, we expect Vick and Ouellette to have big games tonight.  The Bobcats’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are giving up just 21.6 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 28.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  This is a huge game for Ohio as a win makes them bowl eligible.  We’ll take the points with the rested and motivated home underdog in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play OHIO (+).

Northeastern will be a decent team this season, and they are actually picked #1 in the Colonial Athletic conference.  But just how good is that conference considering Northeastern is picked to win it despite going just 11-21 overall and 7-9 in conference play last season?  The Huskies will simply be out-classed in this game against Florida State, especially inside the paint and on the glass.  Northeastern is also trying to work their guys into shape as their best players are all returning from injury.  The Huskies only use a 7-man rotation, and that group struggled against Boston University in their season opener; they trailed 37-26 at the half before rallying for a 71-65 win.    

Florida State is flying well under the radar this season.  The Seminoles will surprise a lot of teams this season, and we expect them to handle Northeastern pretty easily tonight.  Florida State  has a lot of experience and tremendous depth; eight guys played 18 minutes or more in their 81-66 season opening win over Manhattan.  The Seminoles are a big team that rotates three seven-footers in the frontcourt.  Florida State’s backcourt is also back to health this season after two starters missed many games last season due to injury.  The Seminoles have too much offense for Northeastern; they shot 57.5% from the field with six players scoring in double digits in their first game.  Florida State is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Tuesday night.       

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Louisiana Tech is a loaded team this season.  The Bulldogs return four starters from last year’s 29-8 team that reached the quarterfinals of the NIT.  Louisiana Tech head coach Michael White turned down a big offer from Tennessee to stay, knowing how good his team will be this season.  Since taking over in 2011, White has led the Bulldogs to an impressive 74-31 record with 56 of those wins coming over the last two years with the current players on the roster.  Louisiana Tech opened their season with a ho-hum 85-76 win over Southern.  Four players scored 15 points or more, and they were aggressive in getting to the free throw line 40 times.  The Bulldogs weren’t that efficient, but with a name opponent in Temple, we expect a much sharper performance in this game.       

Temple also comes in off a win in their season opener; the Owls beat American in a ugly 40-37 defensive slugfest.  Temple went a terrible 9-22 last season, and this year doesn’t look too promising either.  The Owls lost two of their top scorers from last year’s team, and the plans to replace them have been put on hold.  Temple was counting on Clemson transfer Devin Coleman and UMass transfer Jesse Morgan, but both are still ineligible to play.  Another transfer from Texas, Jaylen Boyd, has an ankle injury that forced his to miss the American game.  Temple has a limited offense right now, and that was evident in their first game when they shot 22.9% (11-48) from the field and 26.3% (5-19) from three-point land.  Louisiana Tech is the much better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Monday night.         

9* Play LOUISIANA TECH (-).

George Washington is set to win right away.  The Colonials return four starters from last year’s 24-9 team that advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament.  The Colonials will also get Kethan Savage back from injury; he broke his foot in January and missed eight weeks.  George Washington already played a game this season, and that was a 92-40 blowout of Grambling State.  That game was like a glorified practice for the Colonials, and it gives them a nice advantage coming into this game against Rutgers.  George Washington had a terrific defense last season, holding opponents to just 41.6% from the field.  They held Grambling State to just 28.3% (15-53) from the field and 20% (2-10) from three-point land.    

Rutgers has a lot of question marks coming into this season.  The Scarlet Knights are picked to finish dead last in the Big 10 conference as their roster was turned upside down with players transferring in the off-season.  Rutgers has just three guys returning with any experience, and their best player, Kadeem Jack, is dealing with a nagging thumb injury.  He’s questionable to play in this game, and if he doesn’t, Rutgers has little chance to be competitive.  Even if Jack plays, head coach Eddie Jordan said that his conditioning is way short from missing so much practice time.  George Washington is in a better position to win right now, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night.  

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (-).

Philadelphia lost quarterback Nick Foles to a broken collarbone two weeks ago against Houston.  And at that time, it appeared to be a bad thing for the Eagles.  However, in two games, Mark Sanchez actually looks like a better fit for Chip Kelly’s offense.  Sanchez is averaging a whopping 9.1 yards per pass attempt, and his ability to get out of the pocket much quicker than Foles makes Philadelphia’s offense more difficult to contain.  Sanchez will face a mediocre Green Bay defense that is allowing 22.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents that average 22.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Eagles’ offense averages 31 points per game on 5.8 yards per play, so they are significantly better than the average team Green Bay has faced this season.

Green Bay is coming off a 55-14 blowout win over the Bears last Sunday night.  The Packers went into that game off a bye and also off a loss, so they were primed for a big effort.  Off that 41-point win in which the Packers racked up 451 yards of total offense, there’s a good chance of regression in this game today.  The Packers’ biggest wins this season have come over some bad teams like the Bears (twice), Vikings, Jets, and Panthers.  Green Bay is just 1-3 SU in their other four games with the lone win coming by just 3 points (27-24) over the Dolphins.  The Eagles are 7-2 SU on the season, and they have a strong defense that ranks #5 against the run and #9 against the pass in efficiency metrics.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the Eagles plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play EAGLES (+).

Cincinnati is off an ugly 24-3 home loss versus Cleveland on Thursday night ten days ago.  The Bengals played a horrendous game as they had just 165 yards of total offense.  Off that humiliating performance, we expect Cincinnati to bounce back with a strong effort in this game.  Quarterback Andy Dalton was terrible as he completed just 30.3% (10-33) of his passes for an embarrassing 86 yards with 3 interceptions.  That was Dalton’s second awful performance of the season; he completed just 47.4% of his passes in a 27-0 loss to the Colts.  After that game, Dalton bounced back with a strong performance, completing 75% of his passes in a 27-24 win over the Ravens.  Cincinnati’s offense will be facing a poor New Orleans’ defense that is giving up 25 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that are only averaging 22.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.

New Orleans comes in off a tough 27-24 home loss in overtime versus San Francisco.  The Saints had that game won, but they allowed the 49ers to convert on a long 4th down play that extended the game.  Favorites off an overtime loss are a poor play in the NFL, and the Saints fit that role today.  New Orleans must lay big points into the Bengals who are off an ugly performance with extra time to prepare; this is a scheduling situation that definitely favors Cincinnati.  The Saints certainly have a strong passing offense, but the Bengals have a strong pass defense that is ranked 8th in efficiency metrics.  Cincinnati is allowing just 6.3 yards per pass attempt versus offenses that are averaging 6.9 ypp this year.  The Bengals are in a good bounce back spot while the Saints are in bad situational spot, so we’ll take the points with Cincinnati in this game on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play BENGALS (+).

Seattle comes into this game with a 6-3 SU record, and they blew out the Giants 38-17 last Sunday.  The Seahawks are a strong team once again this year as they rank #4 in overall efficiency metrics despite having three losses on the season.  The Seahawks have some momentum after three straight wins, including back-to-back games in which they scored 30 and 38 points.  Seattle’s offense is averaging 6.1 yards per play versus defenses allowing just 5.8 yards per play.  The Seahawks’ defense is permitting only 5.1 yards per pay versus offenses averaging 5.7 yards per play.  Seattle’s defense has been terrific over their past three games while giving up just 16.7 points per game.

Kansas City has been good since their bye; the Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS over their past four games.  But the Chiefs have played nothing in terms of competition with wins over the Chargers, Rams, Jets, and Bills.  Kansas City is taking a major step-up in class for this game, and it’s not the best of scheduling spots either.  After this non-conference game against Seattle, the Chiefs will play a pair of divisional games against the Raiders and Broncos.  The Chiefs need to run the ball in order to have offensive success, and when unable to, they struggle.  In fact, the Chiefs have been held to less than 110 rushing yards two times this season; they lost 26-10 to the Titans and they lost 22-17 to the 49ers.  Seattle has a strong rush defense that is holding opponents to just 79.8 yards per game on an impressive 3.2 yards per rush.  The Seahawks have held 7 of their 9 opponents to less than 110 yards on the ground this season.  We’ll take the points with Seattle in this early game on Sunday afternoon.    

9* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

LSU comes into this game off a heartbreaking 20-13 overtime loss to Alabama.  That was a huge game for the Tigers as they were playing themselves into the 4-team playoff discussion and a win would have vaulted them in the rankings.  LSU went into that game off their bye week, so we know they put everything they had into it.  Now they must take to the road and play an Arkansas team they’ve beaten the last three years.  The Razorbacks are not an opponent LSU respects, and since they are in a huge letdown spot, this is an extremely dangerous game for the Tigers.  Overall, LSU has strong seasonal numbers on defense.  But their main weakness this season has been run defense; they allow 154 yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush.  The Tigers have given up 268 rushing yards or more in three games this season, and they will face one of the best rushing attacks in college football in this game. 

Arkansas is significantly better this season than they were last year.  Head coach Bret Bielema was installing his system last year and the Razorbacks slogged thru an ugly 3-9 season.  Arkansas already has more wins this season as they come into this game with a 4-5 record; their five losses have come against Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi State who are a combined 38-8 on the season.  The Razorbacks’ offense is averaging 35.9 points per game and 6.2 yards per play versus opponents allowing 30.1 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Arkansas has a dynamite running game this is averaging 248.2 yards per game on a whopping 5.7 yards per rush.  Arkansas’ defense has played above average this season.  The Razorbacks are giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus opponents averaging 32.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Arkansas is coming into this game off their bye, and since they are catching LSU at the perfect time, we’ll back the Razorbacks on Saturday night.

9* Play ARKANSAS (-).

Florida State comes into this game on a 25-game winning streak, but we expect that to come to an end.  The Seminoles have been shaky this season, and they are basically escaping their games with wins.  They have not been nearly as dominant as they were last season, and they are just 2-6 ATS this season despite playing an extremely weak schedule.  Florida State’s defense has been leaky all season, and in fact, they’ve allowed 407 yards or more in five of their nine games this season.  Over their last four games, the Seminoles have allowed 98 points and 1,627 yards of total offense.  Two of those games came against terrible offenses as Syracuse ranks 97th and Virginia ranks 66th in offensive efficiency.  Florida State will be facing a Miami offense that ranks 10th in offensive efficiency, so the Seminoles’ problems are only going to be magnified in this game. 

Miami comes into this game with a 6-3 record, but the Hurricanes are significantly better than that record indicates.  Their three losses this season have come against Louisville, Nebraska, and Georgia Tech who are a combined 23-6 on the season.  Miami has a terrific offense that is averaging 33 points per game on a whopping 7.0 yards per play.  The Hurricanes have put up those numbers against a strong collection of defenses that are only allowing 27 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Miami runs for 199.3 yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush; Florida State has allowed 156 rushing yards or more in three of their last four games.  The Hurricanes also have a solid defense that is only giving up 21.9 points per game on 4.4 yards per play this season versus opponents averaging 31.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Miami’s defense has been even better at home where they give up just 18.2 points per game on 3.7 yards per play.  Miami is fresh off their bye, and since Florida State looks ripe for the picking, we’ll take the Hurricanes plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play MIAMI, FL (+).