Texas A&M comes into this game with a 7-3 record, but the Aggies have faced a soft schedule while playing just one true road game all season.  They lost that game 23-3 at Mississippi.  Their two neutral site games were both in the state of Texas which means the Aggies have played just one of their ten games this season outside of the state.  Texas A&M’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 27.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Despite playing at home and against poor defenses, the Aggies are only averaging 30.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Texas A&M is taking a major step-up in defensive class against Vanderbilt in this game, and they are doing so while laying close to a touchdown on the road.     

Vanderbilt cashed as a Best Bet selection for us last week, and we’ll come right back with them this week.  The Commodores have an excellent defense that is only giving up 17.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  At home, Vanderbilt is only allowing 14.4 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.  Vanderbilt’s offense has mediocre seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a solid slate of defenses that include Florida, Missouri, Georgia, and Mississippi.  The Commodores’ offense will face a Texas A&M defense that is giving up 24 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Vanderbilt is 3-2 at home this season with one of those losses coming by just 2 points.  This is the Commodores home finale, so they will bring their best effort, especially since they come in off a confidence-building win.  We’ll take the points with the Commodores in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play VANDERBILT (+).

Mississippi State had their 4-game winning streak snapped last week at home when they got crushed 31-6 by Alabama.  The Bulldogs took a physical beating in that game, and we’ve seen teams play terrible the following week after playing the Crimson Tide.  Mississippi State’s recent wins have also come against terrible teams like Missouri, Kentucky, Troy, and Louisiana Tech.  Mississippi State has played four of their last five games at home, and this will be just their second road game over the last six weeks.  Mississippi State’s offense has been much worse on the road this season.  They are only averaging 24.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play compared to 31.8 points per game on 6.4 yards per play overall.  The Bulldogs’ defense has been vulnerable on the ground as they are giving up 174.4 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  They will face an Arkansas offense that rushes for 203 yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush.

Arkansas is 6-4 on the season, and that’s a pretty good record considering they’ve payed a brutal schedule.  The Razorbacks have played Toledo, at Tennessee, at Alabama, at Mississippi, and at LSU.  Arkansas is facing a much softer opponent in Mississippi State, and the Razorbacks return home with momentum and confidence off back-to-back road wins.  Arkansas will be playing just their third home game since September, so they’ll be ready for this game, especially since they are playing with revenge.  Arkansas has a terrific running game as noted above, and their ability to control the line of scrimmage will be the difference in this game.  Arkansas is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Razorbacks in this game on Saturday night.         

10* Play ARKANSAS (-).

North Carolina has had a fantastic season so far as they come into this game with a 9-1 record with their lone loss coming way back in their season opener.  They lost 17-13 to a bad South Carolina team, and the Tar Heels had multiple chances to win that game.  North Carolina could very well be undefeated, but are they as good as their record indicates?  Not quite.  The Tar Heels have played one of the easiest schedules in the country, and seven of their last nine games have come on their home field.  North Carolina has played just two true road games all season with both games resulting in 7-point wins.  The Tar Heels were 6.5-point underdogs at Georgia Tech, and just 1-point favorites at Pittsburgh, so the fact they are laying more than a field goal in this game presents excellent value on the underdog.  North Carolina’s defensive numbers are skewed by the fact that they’ve faced a terrible slate of opposing offenses that only average 23.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Tar Heels will face a Virginia Tech offense that is averaging 30 points per game at home this season.  

Virginia Tech comes into this game with a 5-5 record, but that is a direct result of losing starting quarterback Michael Brewer in their season opener against Alabama.  The Hokies’ offense was terrible under Brenden Motley.  But Brewer returned three games ago, and we’ve seen a much better Virginia Tech team.  They’ve gone 2-1 in those games with their lone loss coming by just 2 points in overtime.  The Hokies return home off back-to-back road wins, and this is their home finale, and also the last home game for legendary head coach Frank Beamer who is retiring.  Virginia Tech will come with their best effort in this game, especially since they are in good current form.  The Hokies’ defense is only giving up 24 points per game on 5.3 yards per play against offenses that average 26.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  My power ratings make Virginia Tech a 1-point favorite in this game, so we’ll take the Hokies plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (+).

Chicago comes into this game against Golden State in excellent current form.  The Bulls have won four straight games, and five of their last six games overall.  Chicago also had last night off, so they are rested and ready for this game against the Warriors.  The Bulls will not be in awe of the Warriors and their 13-game winning streak either.  Last year, Chicago broke the Warriors 19-game home winning streak; that was just one of Golden State’s two home losses all season.  The Bulls have played to their level of competition this season; they beat Cleveland and Oklahoma City while losing by 25 points to Charlotte and losing by 9 points to Minnesota.  The Bulls will come with their best effort tonight, especially since they have a chance to give the Warriors their first loss of the season.  Chicago has the defense to play with Golden State; the Bulls rank #5 in efficiency while holding opponents to 40.8% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land.    

Golden State is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game.  The Warriors played last night in Los Angeles, and they came back from a 23-point deficit to win 124-117.  Golden State expended a lot of energy to take their first lead of the game with just over 2 minutes left to play.  The Warriors had four starters play 30 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 35 minutes or more.  Golden State shot 52.1% (38-73) from the field, 56.7% (17-30) from three-point land, and 86.1% (31-36) from the free-throw line.  They played a perfect game, but now they’ll play on back-to-back nights with this also being their third game in four nights.  We’ll take the points with Chicago in this game on Friday night.

9* Play BULLS (+).

Los Angeles is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Portland.  The Clippers played their marquee game last night at home against the Golden State Warriors, and they inexplicably blew that game.  Los Angeles went into that game off four days of rest which gave them ample time to prepare for the best team in the NBA.  The Clippers also had Chris Paul on the court after he was listed as doubtful with a groin injury.  Los Angeles played to their max level, and they led by 14 points at the half.  The Clippers still led until just over two minutes to play when the Warriors took their first lead of the game.  The game ended with a 124-117 Los Angeles defeat despite the Clippers shooting 50% (44-88) from the field and 44.8% (13-29) from three-point land.  That loss will be extremely difficult for the Clippers to overcome, especially tonight on a back-to-back set when all five starters played 31 minutes or more last night; three starters played 37 minutes or more.      

Portland returns home off a brutal 4-game road trip in which they crossed multiple time zones while playing those games over a 6-day span.  The Trail Blazers went 0-4 in those games, but the results can be excused.  They were competitive as one loss came by a single point while another loss came by 5 points in overtime.  “Losing is hard,” Mason Plumlee said.  “But I think we’ll grow from it. There’s a lot of positive takeaways. We’re getting better and eventually the wins are going to show that. We’re just not coming up with wins right now, but I think we are improving.”  Portland is simply glad to be back at home, and they are catching the Clippers at the perfect time.  The Trail Blazers’ offense has been good at home where they are averaging 104.2 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land.  Portland is set for a peak performance while Los Angeles will be playing with a hangover, so we’ll take the Trail Blazers plus the points in this game on Friday night.

10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Boise State has been a terrific team over the last three seasons.  The Broncos have won 21 games or more the last three years, and they are set to eclipse their 25 wins of a season ago.  Boise State is an experienced and veteran team that has an efficient offense and a strong, half-court defense.  Head coach Leon Rice and his players have had this game circled since the summer, so they’ll be ready: “It’s a great opportunity to play against a top 10 program that year in and year out is in a hunt for a national title,” Rice said.  “These are the kinds of games that, for a lot of guys, is the reason they come to Boise State.”  Boise State will not be overwhelmed by playing at Arizona after the Broncos had to play in Dayton against the Flyers in the First Four of the NCAA tournament last season.   

Arizona always has a good team; they’ve won 27 games or more in four of the last five seasons.  The Wildcats have won 67 games over the last two seasons, but those wins come at a price.  The Wildcats are continuously reloading new talent after losing players to professional basketball, so they are the most vulnerable early in the season.  Arizona is playing with three transfers in their starting lineup, and it’s simply going to take time for those guys to gel.  In their first two games, the Wildcats own a -3 (25-22) turnover margin which is a sign that the team lacks some chemistry right now.  Head coach Sean Miller knows tonight’s game will be a tough one: “We think they’re one of the best teams in the country,” Miller said. “They have a great coach, a terrific offensive system, and that puts a lot of pressure on our defense. It’s going to be a really, really strong challenge. I think it will be one of the toughest all season.”  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Boise State on Thursday night.

9* Play BOISE STATE (+).

Sacramento is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for this game in Miami on Thursday night.  The Kings played last night in Atlanta, and they rallied back from a 10-point deficit to trail 99-97 with just 31 seconds remaining in the game.  But they ultimately came up short in their comeback while expending a lot of energy in the process.  Sacramento had three starters play 29 minutes or more with four bench players playing 20 minutes or more.  Head coach George Karl also used his ninth different lineup in twelve games this season; there hasn’t been any sense of semblance this season.  DeMarcus Cousins threw two elbows last night, and there is some speculation he may be suspended for this game prior to tip.  Regardless, Sacramento will be playing on a back-to-back set while their opponent is fresh and ready after having last night off.

Miami lost their last home game 103-91 to Minnesota on Tuesday night.  The Heat blew a 7-point lead going into the fourth quarter after they got out-scored 41-22 over the final twelve minutes of the game.  It was just the second time this season that Miami’s defense gave up more than 100 points in a game.  Miami has the #1 defense in the NBA based on efficiency, and off a poor performance, we expect a strong bounce back tonight.  When Miami has held their opponent to less than 100 points, they are 6-2 SU this season with those six wins coming by 10, 20, 12, 20, 1, and 13 points.  Five of those wins would have been good enough to cover tonight’s spread.  Sacramento is a team that plays at the fastest pace in the league, but they’ve struggled mightily when held to less than 100 points.  The Kings are 0-5 SU with their losses coming by 6, 18, 9, 21, and 14 points.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play HEAT (-).

Toronto is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Utah on Wednesday night.  The Raptors played last night at Golden State, and they took the Warriors to the brink in a 115-110 loss.  Toronto expended a lot of energy in that game as they rallied back from a 16-point half time deficit to take a 98-96 lead with just over five minutes left to play before faltering down the stretch.  Toronto had four starters play 31 minutes or more with three of those guys playing 38 minutes or more.  The Raptors’ best bench player, Cory Joseph, also played over 28 minutes in that game.  Now Toronto has to play on back-to-back nights while doing so in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  This will also be Toronto’s third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.     

Utah is just 5-5 on the year, but the Jazz have played eight of their ten games on the road so far this season.  Utah recently completed a 4-game East coast road trip in which they went just 1-3.  However, they played those games over a six day span while missing a key cog in Rudy Gobert, so the results can be forgiven.  Utah did win their last game, so they come into this game with some momentum.  The Jazz also have a huge scheduling advantage for this game as they’ve had two full days to prepare while the Raptors are a fatigued team as noted above.  Toronto is also going from a fast-paced game which they prefer to the slow, half-court style of Utah.  The Jazz have a terrific defense that is only allowing 91.8 points per game on 42.4% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play JAZZ (-).

Wichita State has been a fantastic program over the last few years as they’ve produced some excellent teams.  The Shockers have won 30 games or more in three straight years, and they made the Final Four in 2013.  Wichita State will be a very good team once again this season, but tonight’s game against Tulsa will be a difficult challenge.  The Shockers have a terrific backcourt with Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, but the latter is battling thru injuries.  VanVleet has a strained left hamstring and a sprained ankle; he only played three minutes in their season opener.  VanVleet is expected to give it a go tonight, but his effectiveness may be limited.  Wichita State also has some question marks in the frontcourt, so until they find a consistent post player, they are a bit vulnerable.  The Shockers also have to wait until mid-December for Conner Frankamp, a Kansas transfer, to become eligible.  

Tulsa is ready for a breakout season under head coach Frank Haith after winning 21 games in 2014 and 24 games in 2015.  The Golden Hurricane returns all five starters this season, including their top eight players from last year’s rotation.  Tulsa’s offense is explosive; they scored 98 points in their season opener.  “We finally bought into Coach Haith’s system and the ball movement has been very good for us,” James Woodard said.  “We’re getting a lot of assists off each other and moving off the ball, that’s what they’ve been preaching. It’s hard for teams to guard if everybody’s clicking on all cylinders.”  Tulsa gets this game on their home court; a small gym that only holds 8,300 people.  It’s also a very big game for the Tulsa program: “To play a team of this caliber, one of the best teams in the country on your court, there’s nothing but opportunity,” said coach Haith.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Tulsa on Tuesday night.

9* Play TULSA (+).

Atlanta caught the league off-guard last season when they went 60-22 in the regular season.  The Hawks came into this season as a known commodity, and because of that, their opponents have come focused in their games.  Atlanta comes into tonight’s game with an 8-4 record, but three of those losses have come in their last four games despite playing three of those games on their home court.  Atlanta is also dealing with injuries, and they are having an impact on both ends of the court.  The Hawks will be without Jeff Teague (ankle) and Kent Bazemore (ankle) tonight, so their rotation will be thrown off.  And that’s not a good thing for a team that is in poor current form. 

Brooklyn comes into this game with a terrible 1-9 record, but the Nets have played seven of their ten games on the road.  The Nets are 0-3 on their home court, but two of their losses have come by 7 points or less so they’ve been competitive.  Brooklyn has been playing much better basketball recently even though those games haven’t resulted in wins.  In their last three games, the Nets won in Houston, lost by 2 points in Sacramento, and lost by 8 points in overtime at Golden State.  “I think you can see a progression pretty much every night,” center Brook Lopez said.  “Coach came in here and said, and each one of us agrees, we could have ended up 3-0 on this trip. We really feel that we are making steps.”  Coach Lionel Hollins agrees: “We’re a much better team than we were at the start of the year. I think that we’re developing a work ethic and a togetherness that we didn’t have before.”  Atlanta is undermanned, and since Brooklyn has had full days to get ready for this game, we’ll take the Nets in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play NETS (+).

Virginia was expected to regress some last season after losing a ton of talent from their 30-win team the previous season.  However, that did not happen as the Cavaliers went on to win 30 games once again.  The Cavaliers now have high expectations coming into this season as eight of their top ten scorers return from last year’s team.  Head coach Tony Bennett runs fantastic schemes on both ends of the court, but Virginia often has a had time winning games by margin because they play at such a slow pace.  That will be the case tonight against George Washington, a team that also plays at a slow tempo while focusing on half court offense and defense.  Virginia has a history of struggling against similar teams, and tonight’s game falls squarely into that profile.

George Washington is ready for a breakout season under head coach Mike Lonergan.  The Colonials have won 46 games over the last two seasons, and the team returns four starters this season.  George Washington will have one of the biggest lineups in the country, and their ability to stifle opponents with their defense will make them competitive in every game.  The Colonials’ defense held opponents to just 40.4% shooting from the field last season, and they are expected to be even stingier this season.  George Washington gets this game on their home court; a small gym that only holds 5,000 people.  That’s a nice advantage to have against a big-name team used to playing in spacious arenas.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with George Washington on Monday night.

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (+).

Dallas has assembled a deep and talented roaster that has a lot of experience for the 2015 season.  The Mavericks are a veteran-laden team, but their age will set them up in some bad spots this season.  And tonight is one of those spots.  Dallas will be playing their fifth game in seven nights against a young, fast and athletic Philadelphia team that will run up and down the court.  Dallas is already a fatigued team, and they will simply wear down as this game goes on.  Head coach Rick Carlisle knows that his team is up against it in this game: “I’ve watched their last three games, and for me it’s the most dangerous game on the schedule because of how hard they play. They hang in games. They’re young, they’re athletic, they’re going to play hard.”

Philadelphia is the last remaining winless team in the NBA; they are 0-10 on the season.  But the Sixers have played an absolutely brutal schedule which has prevented them from winning.  Philadelphia has played Cleveland twice, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Toronto, Chicago and Utah who are all superior teams.  The Sixers finally get a team they can compete against as Dallas is simply a good notch below the teams mentioned above.  Philadelphia will also get Robert Covington back on the court, and he is a key piece to their team.  The Sixers return home off back-to-back road games, so they are primed for a peak performance.  This is simply too many points for Dallas to be laying on the road, so we’ll take Philadelphia in this game on Monday night.

10* Play SIXERS (+).

Arizona and Seattle both come into this game off their bye week, so we can expect both teams to bring their best effort.  The Cardinals have the better record as they are 6-2 on the season compared to Seattle’s 4-4 mark.  That alone makes the Cardinals an attractive underdog, but this is not a good match-up for them.  Arizona’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but the Cardinals have faced a slew of poor defensive teams.  In fact, those defenses are giving up 25.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play as a group.  The Cardinals will face a Seattle defense that is only allowing 17.5 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  At home, the Seahawks are giving up just 12.3 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense is clearly facing the best defense they’ve seen all season.

Seattle has played much better football than their record indicates.  The Seahawks have lost two games in overtime, and another loss came by just 4 points.  Their lone bad game this season came in Green Bay, but that was excusable as the Packers were playing with legitimate revenge.  Overall, Seattle’s offense has struggled, but they get a favorable match-up against the Arizona defense.  The Cardinals have struggled mightily against mobile quarterbacks, and they will face one of the best running quarterbacks in the league tonight.  Russell Wilson was terrific in two games against the Cardinals last season; he completed 69.8% (37-53) of his passes for 550 yards on a whopping 10.4 yards per pass attempt.  Seattle is rested and ready for a peak performance, so we’ll lay the points with the Seahawks in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

Chicago snapped their 2-game losing streak with a 22-19 win over the Chargers in San Diego last Monday night.  The Bears out-scored the Chargers 15-3 in the fourth quarter after only scoring 7 total points in the first three quarters.  That was a terrible offensive showing by Chicago considering the San Diego defense had allowed 24 points or more in their eight other games this season.  Now the Bears are on the road once again and playing on a short week while taking a major step-up in defensive class against St. Louis.  Chicago’s offense has been terrible on the road where they are only averaging 18.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  The Bears have a poor running game (96.2 yards per game on 3.4 yards per rush) away from home, and that makes them a one-dimensional passing offense.  That plays right into the hands of the Rams defense.

St. Louis came into this season ready to win, but the Rams are just 4-4 on the year after losing in overtime to the Vikings last Sunday.  St. Louis is 3-1 at home this season, and their last two home wins have come by a combined score of 51-12.  The Rams have an excellent defense that is tied for second in the NFL with 27 sacks while their secondary has given up just 5 passing touchdowns all season.  At home, St. Louis is only allowing 13.7 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  Overall, the Rams are allowing just 5.2 yards per play versus opponents that average 5.8 yards per play.  St. Louis is primed for their best while Chicago is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Rams in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play RAMS (-).

New Orleans comes into this game off a tough 34-28 home loss in overtime to the Titans last Sunday.  That game was preceded by three consecutive wins that took a lot out of the Saints.  New Orleans beat previously unbeaten Atlanta 31-21 as home underdogs on a Thursday night, then they went to Indianapolis and won 27-21 as 5.5-point road underdogs, and they capped off their third straight win in a high-scoring 52-49 victory over the New York Giants.  Now they must take to the road and play in the outdoor elements on a natural grass field for the first time in a month.  New Orleans lost a road game 39-17 in Philadelphia under these same conditions earlier this season.  The Saints’ defense is one of the worst in the NFL; they are giving up 29.8 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  On the road, New Orleans is allowing 29.5 points per game on 6.9 yards per play. 

Washington comes into this game off a 27-10 blowout loss in New England.  That was simply a terrible spot for the Redskins after coming back from a 24-0 deficit to beat Tampa Bay 31-30 and having a bye the following week.  Washington returns home where they’ve played good football this season.  The Redskins are 3-1 at home with their lone loss coming way back in their season opener.  At home, Washington is averaging 22 points per game on 5.6 yards per play which is better than the 19.7 points per game on 5.2 yards per play that they average overall.  The Redskins’ offense will have one of their best games of the season.  They are fully healthy now, and they are playing an awful New Orleans defense.  Washington’s defense is only giving up 19.2 points per game at home, so the Saints offense has their work cut out for them.  We expect a peak performance by Washington, so we’ll back the Redskins in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

Washington State comes into this game with a respectable 6-3 record on the season.  Not much was expected from the Cougars, so they’ve certainly overachieved on the field.  However, this is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Washington State, and we expect them to throw in a clunker.  The Cougars have played in three consecutive close, high-scoring games with the last two coming on their home field.  Last week, Washington State trailed Arizona State 14-0 and then 21-17 heading into the fourth quarter before out-scoring the Sun Devils 21-3.  Two weeks ago, Washington State lost 30-28 to Stanford after blowing a 22-13 lead late in the second half.  And three weeks ago, the Cougars won 45-42 at Arizona.  So that’s three straight emotional games that will catch-up to Washington State here, especially since they are playing on the road where their defense allows 37 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.

UCLA is back to their wining ways after three straight victories, including last week’s 41-0 blowout of Oregon State.  The Bruins dominated teams early when they opened the season with four consecutive wins, but back-to-back losses to Arizona State and Stanford made UCLA a forgotten commodity.  The Bruins’ offense is averaging 36.1 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that give up 29 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  UCLA will move the ball at will on a terrible Washington State defense, especially on the ground as the Cougars give up 215.7 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush on the road this season.  UCLA also has a good defense that is only allowing 24.6 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 30.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  UCLA is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bruins in this game on Saturday night. 

10* Play UCLA (-).

Kentucky comes into this game off four consecutive losses because of their defense.  We won a Best Bet selection on Georgia last week when they beat Kentucky 27-3; we also won against Kentucky the week before when Tennessee waxed them 52-21.  We’ll come right back and play against the Wildcats once again this week.  Kentucky has given up 151 points in their last four games to Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee, and Georgia.  Kentucky’s defense is injury riddled; they are without their best defensive lineman and their secondary is in shambles.  Kentucky’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 21.9 points per game on 5.4 yards per play despite playing the likes of Louisiana Lafayette, South Carolina, and Eastern Kentucky.  Vanderbilt has an excellent defense that is only giving up 17.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  At home, the Commodores are only allowing 13.7 points per game on 4.3 yards per play.  

Vanderbilt’s offense only scored 7 points last week, but that was in Florida against the stout Gators defense.  The Commodores are taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game against Kentucky, and we expect Vanderbilt’s offense to break out in a major way.  The Commodores’ offense has poor seasonal numbers, but they’ve played strong defenses that are only allowing 24.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Vanderbilt has scored just 10 and 14 points at home in conference play, but those games came against Georgia and Missouri who have terrific defenses.  Kentucky has one of the worst defenses in the SEC, so the Commodores’ offense will have one of their best offensive games of the season.  Vanderbilt will be playing just their second home game since September 19th, so they will bring their best effort here.  Kentucky will be playing their third road game in four weeks, so this is a good scheduling spot for Vanderbilt.  We’ll lay the points with the Commodores in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play VANDERBILT (-).

SMU has played terrible football this season; the Mustangs come into this game with a 1-8 record with their lone win coming over North Texas who is also 1-8 on the season.  SMU has simply been terrible on both sides of the ball this season.  The Mustangs’ offense is only averaging 26.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play on the road this season.  Overall this season, SMU has faced a collection of defenses that allow 29.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Mustangs will face a Navy defense that only gives up 19 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  That’s 10.8 points per game less and 0.2 yards per play less than the defenses that SMU has faced this season.  If we only use Navy’s home numbers, the outcome is even more bleak for SMU.  The Midshipmen allow just 14.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play at home this season. 

Navy comes into this game with a 7-1 record, including a perfect 5-0 mark at home.  The Midshipmen have won three of their home games by 22 points or more with their average win coming by 22.6 points per game.  Navy is averaging 35.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 27.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Navy has faced the much tougher defensive opponents than SMU, and the Midshipmen have performed better.  On the road this season, SMU’s defense is giving up 47.7 points per game on a horrendous 7.6 yards per play.  The Mustangs allow 260 rushing yards per game on 5.8 yards per rush, and that plays right into Navy’s running game that averages 326.5 yards per game on 5.5 yards per rush.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Midshipmen on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NAVY (-).

Eastern Illinois is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Panthers are coming off one of their best seasons in program history when head coach Jay Spoonhour led the team to their first postseason appearance since 2001.  However, the majority of that team has departed.  Eastern Illinois has nine newcomers, including six true freshman, two junior college transfers, and a graduate transfer on the roster this season.  The Panthers are trying to run an up-tempo offense, but it’s going to take a lot of time for this team to come together.  Eastern Illinois gets a terrible match-up in their season opener as Indiana is simply the superior team that also runs an up-tempo offense.  The fact that the Hoosiers play extremely fast means that Eastern Illinois will be overrun by better talent while unable to trade points.

Indiana is built to win right away as they return four starters from last year’s 20-win team that made the NCAA tournament.  The Hoosiers averaged 77 points per game last season while shooting 46.4% from the field and 40.6% from three-point land.  Indiana is also a good free throw shooting team (71.9%) which helps them extend leads.  Indiana is taking this game seriously, so we can expect a peak performance in their season opener.  “It’s critical,” senior guard Nick Zeisloft said.  “Coach hit on that. All the practices, all the exhibitions, all the games that lead up. Everything adds up.”  The Hoosiers are the better team by a wide margin, so we expect Indiana to win this game by 30 points or more on Friday night.  

10* Play INDIANA (-).

Los Angeles is in a difficult situational and scheduling spot for this game in Phoenix on Thursday night.  The Clippers played last night in Dallas; a game that carried a lot of emotion with the DeAndre Jordan situation.  Jordan spurned the Mavericks in free agency, so the media hype surrounding the game made it mentally draining for the Clippers.  Los Angeles lost 118-108 in a game that came right down to the wire; it was a 2-point game with a minute left to play.  Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both played over 34 minutes, and three bench players played over 21 minutes.  The Clippers will be a fatigued team tonight, especially since they are playing on a back-to-back set while also playing their third game in four nights.  Los Angeles is just 1-3 in their last four games with their lone win coming by just 2 points at home against Memphis.   

Phoenix revamped their roster for 2015, and their moves were intended to help their team chemistry on and off the court.  Team basketball has been much better for the Suns this season, and that makes them a dangerous team, especially when getting points in good spots like tonight.  The Suns are just 3-4 on the season, and they come into this game off back-to-back losses.  However, the Suns have had three full days to get ready for this game, and they are catching Los Angeles at the perfect time.  Phoenix only lost by 6 points (102-96) in Los Angeles ten days ago, and that was when the Clippers were in much better form.  We expect a peak performance by Phoenix, especially since Los Angeles is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game.  We’ll back the Suns in this game on Thursday night.    

10* Play SUNS (+).

Indiana opened the season with three straight losses, but the Pacers have gone 4-1 since then.  Their lone loss in their last five games came by just 4 points at Cleveland.  The Pacers are playing with confidence and momentum right now, and they already beat Boston earlier this season.  Indiana won 100-98 at home, and the Celtics were a much healthier team for that game.  Boston may be without two backcourt starters in the game, so their bench and depth would be at a disadvantage in this game.  The Pacers are playing at a much quicker pace this season, and their offense has come together recently; they’ve scored 97 points or more in three of their last four games.  

Boston played last night in Milwaukee and the Celtics won 99-83 despite woeful shooting.  The Celtics shot just 44.2% (38-86) from the field and 23.3% (7-30) from three-point land yet they won by 16 points.  That was a terrible performance by Boston, especially since they went into that game off 3 full days of rest.  Now they must wheel right back and play a back-to-back set against a better team that had last night off.  Boston’s Avery Bradley injured his leg last night; he will be a game-time decision along with Marcus Smart who has missed the last three games with a toe injury.  Indiana is simply the better team, so we’ll take the Pacers plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.       

10* Play PACERS (+).

Charlotte comes into this game with just a 2-4 record on the season, but the Hornets have played a tough schedule.  Charlotte has faced Atlanta twice, Chicago, and San Antonio in four of their six games, so their losing record is certainly understandable.  The Hornets got blown out by 20 points (114-94) in San Antonio in their last game, so we can be assured we’ll get their best effort tonight.  Overall, the Hornets have played respectable defense considering the opponents they have faced.  Charlotte is only allowing 46.3% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land this season.  They’ve held three of their six opponents to 97, 94, and 94 points which is good considering the high-scoring offenses they have played.  Charlotte has had two full days to get ready for this game, and they are catching their opponent at the perfect time.    

Minnesota played in a wild, high-scoring game last night in Atlanta.  The Timberwolves led that game 72-42 at the half before trailing 107-106 with three minutes left in the game.  Minnesota then closed the game on an 11-0 run to win 117-107.  That’s the second consecutive big road win for Minnesota over a high profile team; they beat the Bulls 102-93 in overtime on Saturday night.  In last night’s game against the Hawks, Minnesota shot 57.5% (46-80) from the field and 46.7% (7-15) from three-point land with six players scoring 10 points or more.  This is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Minnesota, especially since they are an extremely young team while also playing their third game in four nights.  We’ll back Charlotte in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play HORNETS (-).

Portland is a shell of the team that won 51 games last season.  And that’s why their season wins total was virtually cut in half for 2015.  With four of their five starters from last season gone, the Trail Blazers are basically a one-man team with Damian Lillard.  He’s the lone leftover from last year’s starting five, and overall the Trail Blazers are an extremely young team.  Portland was cruising to an easy home win last night as they led Detroit by 13 points going into the fourth quarter.  But the team suffered an epic collapse while getting out-scored 41-11 over the final 12 minutes of the game to lose 120-103.  Now they must wheel right back and play in the thin air and altitude of Denver which is a terrible situation considering they will be playing with a hangover.

Denver is also a team in transition this season.  The Nuggets’ offensive identity has changed with new head coach Mike Malone, but his presence has improved the team chemistry on and off the court.  Denver is just 2-4 on the season, but the Nuggets have faced Golden State, Oklahoma City, and Utah who all have significant match-up advantages over Denver.  The Nuggets will be playing just their third home game of the season; they are 0-2 at home, so this game is ultra important.  Denver has had two full days to get ready for this game, and they are catching Portland at the perfect time.  We expect a peak performance by Denver, especially since a young Portland team is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game.  We’ll back the Nuggets in this game on Monday night.    

9* Play NUGGETS (+).

Philadelphia comes into this game off their bye, and since they lost their last game going into their off week, we expect a strong performance by the Eagles.  The team is also playing with revenge after losing 20-10 to Dallas at home as 7-point favorites back in Week 2.  Philadelphia’s performance in that game was pathetic, especially since they only had 7 rushing yards on 17 rushes in that game.  That was unexplainable for a Chip Kelly offense; Philadelphia averages 114 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  The Eagles will have much better success running the ball in this game as the Cowboys have allowed opponents to run for 569 yards on 4.7 yards per rush in their last five games.  Overall, the Dallas defense is allowing 27 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.       

Dallas was in a terrific spot at home last week against the Seahawks.  The Cowboys came flat off their bye the previous week, but that game was on the road.  At home, Dallas was expected to come with a much better effort.  They did that, but it still wasn’t enough as Seattle beat them 13-12.  Dallas has now lost five consecutive games, and with Matt Cassel at quarterback, the Cowboys’ offense is very limited.  He completed just 13 passes for 97 yards last week, and he’ll face another strong secondary that is holding opponents to just 6.3 yards per pass attempt.  Overall, the Eagles’ defense is only giving up 19.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this season.  Philadelphia is rested and ready, so we’ll lay the points with the Eagles in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play EAGLES (-).

Oakland is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Pittsburgh.  Two weeks ago, the Raiders were off their bye and caught the Chargers in a major flat spot off back-to-back close losses.  The Raiders took advantage and won 37-29.  Last week, Oakland caught a fortunate break when Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick left the game with an injury on New York’s opening series.  Oakland’s defense had the luxury of facing Geno Smith who is simply a bad NFL quarterback.  The Raiders took advantage and won 34-20.  Quarterback Derek Carr has played back-to-back perfect games; he has completed 70.1% (47-67) of his passes for 622 yards with 7 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Carr is highly unlikely to repeat those performances, especially with this being an early start on the body clock against a Pittsburgh defense that is only allowing 17.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play at home this season. 

Pittsburgh was in a tough spot last week even though they were playing at home.  Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was returning from injury; his first game since September 27th.  He was rusty while throwing 3 interceptions against a strong Cincinnati defense.  The Steelers are now in a much better position to play up to their level, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that they’ll be playing an Oakland team in a major regression spot.  Pittsburgh’s offense has been better at home  where they are averaging 24.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  The Steelers will face an Oakland defense that is giving up 24.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season.  Pittsburgh is in a terrific bounce back spot while Oakland is set to regress, so we’ll lay the points with the Steelers in this early game on Sunday.     

9* Play STEELERS (-).

Miami was in a terrible spot for their game last Thursday night in New England.  The Dolphins went into that game off back-to-back perfect outings, so it was highly unlikely they would be able to duplicate those performances against the Patriots.  Miami got blown out 36-7, but that result is easily excusable.  The Dolphins are now set to come back with a peak performance, especially since they are playing with some legitimate revenge.  Miami got embarrassed 41-14 by Buffalo at home back in Week 3, and that result is one they are looking to atone for.  The Dolphins will control the line of scrimmage in this game with Lamar Miller running the football; he rushed for 234 yards on 7.3 yards per rush against Rex Ryan’s defense in two meetings last season.  Miami ran for 102 yards on 20 rushes in the first meeting despite trailing 27-0 at half time.  Overall, the Dolphins are averaging 5.0 yards per rush this season, and their ability to run the ball makes them live in this game.

Buffalo returns home off a 34-31 loss to the Jaguars in London two weeks ago.  The Bills come in off a bye, but that is nullified with Miami also having extra time after last playing on a Thursday night.  Buffalo is just 1-3 at home this season, so it’s not like they hold a big home field edge either.  The Bills will get Tyrod Taylor back at quarterback, but how effective will he be considering he hasn’t played in almost a month?  Buffalo’s defense has been poor at home this season; they’ve allowed 24 points or more three of their four games.  Overall, Buffalo is allowing 28 points per game on 5.6 yards per play at home.  The Bills’ other two wins this season have come against the AFC South which is the worst division in football; the Colts and Titans are a combined 4-11 on the season.  Miami is in a good spot while playing with revenge, so we’ll take the Dolphins plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play DOLPHINS (+).

Minnesota is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game at Ohio State.  The Golden Gophers went into their home game against Michigan last week off a bye, so all of their effort and focus was on that game.  The team also played in honor of their head coach Jerry Kill who announced his resignation just days before due to health reasons.  Minnesota put everything they had into that game, and they should have won the game.  The Gophers led with 5 minutes to play before giving up the lead.  They still had a chance to win the game on the final play from the half yard line, but they couldn’t get the ball into the end zone.  Off such a defeat, we expect Minnesota to play this game with a hangover, and against a strong opponent like Ohio State, that spells major trouble.  The Gophers’ offense has underperformed this season, especially on the road where they are only averaging 21.3 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.  Minnesota will face an Ohio State defense that gives up just 15.1 points per game on 4.4 yards per play.  The Buckeyes allow just 12.6 points per game at home on 4.2 yards per play, so Minnesota’s offense is definitely up against it in this game.

Ohio State comes into this game with a perfect 8-0 SU record.  The Buckeyes have won three of their home games by 26 points or more with their average home win coming by 24 points per game.  Ohio State is averaging 38.5 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 29.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Ohio State has a lot of motivation to win by margin, especially since quarterback Cardale Jones will be back under center after J.T. Barrett’s suspension.  Jones was replaced by Barrett for ineffectiveness, but his second chance comes here and head coach Urban Meyer expects a big game:  “I would imagine as a competitor and a guy who wants to play, that this is his shot to be the starting quarterback at Ohio State.  We’ll worry about next week, next week.”  Ohio State also has plenty of motivation for a blowout win since they fell to #3 in this week's College Football Playoff rankings.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with Ohio State on Saturday night.

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

Syracuse is a bad football team, and we cashed a Best Bet selection against them last week in their 45-21 loss at Florida State.  The Orange now come into this game off five consecutive losses after opening the season at 3-0 SU.  Syracuse has only played two teams that are superior to them during their last five games, and the Orange got dominated in both of those games.  They lost to LSU and Florida State by a combined score of 79-45 while getting out-yarded 1,000-584.  The Orangemen's  defense has been shredded on the road this season where they are allowing 44.7 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  Overall, Syracuse has allowed 6.0 yards per play and 8.2 yards per pass in all games this season (versus opponents that average just 5.5 yppl and 7.1 ypp).  This will be Syracuse’s fourth road game in five weeks, so we expect their defense to get torched once again today.

Louisville has played three of their last four games on the road, so a home game will definitely bring out their best effort today.  The Cardinals have also played three consecutive stout defensive teams; Louisville was only able to score 58 total points on Florida State, Boston College, and Wake Forest.  But now they are taking a major step-down in defensive class against Syracuse, and the Cardinals are playing at home where their offense has been much better this season.  Louisville is averaging 27.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play at home with a strong 8.1 yards per pass.  Louisville also has a terrific defense that is only allowing 17.7 points per game on 4.2 yards per play at home.  In all games this season, the Cardinals have permitted just 21.9 points per game and 4.7 yards per play (versus opponents that average 27.8 ppg and 5.5 yppl).  Louisville is the superior team on both sides of ball and in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this home game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play LOUISVILLE (-).

Kentucky comes into this game off three consecutive losses because of their defense.  We won a Best Bet selection on Tennessee last week when they waxed Kentucky 52-21, and we’ll come right back and play against the Wildcats again this week.  Kentucky has given up 124 points in their last three games to Auburn, Mississippi State, and Tennessee.  Kentucky’s defense is injury riddled; they are without their best defensive lineman and their secondary is in shambles.  Kentucky’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 24.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite playing the likes of Louisiana Lafayette, South Carolina, and Eastern Kentucky.  Georgia has an excellent defense that is only giving up 20.4 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  At home, the Bulldogs are only allowing 16.8 points per game on 4.3 yards per play.

Georgia’s offense only scored 3 points last week, but that was against a stout Florida defense.  The Bulldogs are now taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game against Kentucky, and we expect Georgia’s offense to break out in a major way.  The Bulldogs’ offense has been fantastic at home where they are averaging 34 points per game on 6.7 yards per play this year, and Georgia is averaging 29.4 points per game on 6.4 yards per play in all games this season (versus defenses that allow just 25.9 ppg and 5.6 yppl).  Georgia has a potent rushing attack that averages 213 yards per game at home while averaging a whopping 5.5 yards per rush.  They will now face a Kentucky rush defense that allows 199 yards per game on the ground on 5.7 yards per rush on the road this season.  Georgia is in a good bounce back spot for a big win, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play GEORGIA (-).

Detroit suffered their first loss of the season on Tuesday night when the Pacers beat them 94-82 on their home floor.  The Pistons come into tonight’s game with a 3-1 record with their three wins coming against the Bulls, Jazz, and Hawks who are a combined 12-5 on the season.  Detroit has been winning against good teams, so their 3-1 mark is legitimate.  The Pistons have had two full days to get ready for this game, and since they are off a poor performance where they only shot 38.4% (33-86) from the field and 22.7% (5-22) from three-point land, we expect a strong bounce back effort in this game.  Detroit has five players averaging 9.5 points per game or more with three players averaging 17.2 points per game or more.  Their scoring has been balanced between the starters and the bench, and that’s one of the reasons they’ve won games this season.

Phoenix comes into this game with a 3-2 record after blowing out the Kings 118-97 last night.  The Suns’ wins have come against Portland and Sacramento who are a combined 5-6 on the season.  Phoenix played well above their heads last night when they shot 54.2% (45-83) from the field and an incredible 60.9% (14-23) from three-point land.  The Suns never trailed in that game, and six players scored 10 points or more.  It was a complete team effort, but now they are stepping way up in class against a well rested team while playing on a back-to-back set.  This is a bad spot for the Suns, and they are simply overvalued in this game.  We’ll take Detroit plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play PISTONS (+).

Mississippi State and Missouri both come into this game off a bye, but Missouri actually holds a slight scheduling edge.  The Tigers have played their last two games on the road, and their last home game was back on October 10th.  Mississippi State has played their last three games at home, and they haven’t played a road game since October 3rd.  The Bulldogs have never played in Columbia either, so they are not familiar with their surroundings.  Weekday games tend to favor the non-traveling team as well.  Mississippi State’s offense has been much worse on the road this season.  They are only averaging 22.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play compared to 35.1 points per game on 6.8 yards per play overall.  The Bulldogs have played a terrible collection of defenses this season; those opponents are giving up 29.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  

Missouri has lost three straight games after opening the season with a 4-1 record.  The bye came at the perfect time for the Tigers as it has given them some time to regroup.  Missouri’s strength this season has been defense; they are giving up just 12.5 points per game on 4.0 yards per play.  At home, Missouri is allowing just 10 points per game on 4.0 yards per play.  Mississippi State’s offense is taking a major step-up in defensive class against Missouri in this game as the Tigers’ defense is allowing 17.1 points per game less and 2.0 yards per play less than the defenses the Bulldogs have faced this season.  Missouri is a very strong defensive home underdog, and since they are also in a good scheduling spot, we’ll take the points with the Tigers in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play MISSOURI (+).

Toronto comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 record, but the opponents played has a lot to do with that.  The Raptors played Indiana in their season opener; the Pacers are implementing a new system.  Toronto then beat a mediocre Boston team before waxing an injury-riddled Milwaukee team and an old Dallas team last night.  The Raptors are now taking a major step-up in class, and they are doing it on a back-to-back set.  Toronto is also playing their third game in four nights, and it’s coming on the backend of the always tough Texas travel spot.  Toronto’s defense has good numbers to date, but they are playing the second best offense in the NBA tonight, and we expect the Raptors’ defense to play their worst game of the season.       

Oklahoma City returns home off their first loss of the season; the Thunder lost 110-105 in Houston on Monday night.  Oklahoma City was in a poor spot for that game as it came on a back-to-back set against a desperate Houston team that was getting Dwight Howard back on the court.  The Thunder is the team in the good scheduling spot now, especially since they are catching Toronto in a terrible spot.  Oklahoma City’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 114.5 points per game on 50.6% shooting from the field and 45.5% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma City is in a good spot for a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Thunder in this game on Wednesday night.         

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Boston opened their season with an easy 112-95 win over a hapless Philadelphia team, but since that win, the Celtics have gone 0-2 while losing by 8 and 10 points.  Granted, Boston’s two losses have come against Toronto and San Antonio who are a combined 7-1 on the season.  But the Celtics played all three games on their home court while going into every game with a day off.  That’s the case again tonight, but the difference is that this game is on the road.  Boston is also dealing with an injury to Avery Bradley (hand); he will be a game-time decision.  The Celtics will also be at a match-up disadvantage against the Pacers who have implemented a small-ball style of play this season.        

Indiana got their first win of the season last night in Detroit.  The Pacers won that game 94-82, so it took little out of them for this back-to-back set.  Indiana returns home with some confidence and momentum, and they’ll be eager to notch their first home win of the season.  The Pacers are playing at a much quicker pace this season, and their offense came together last night with five players scoring 10 points or more.  Indiana got even scoring from the second unit as the bench scored 43 points while the starters chipped in 51 points.  Indiana is projected to be a better team than Boston at season’s end, and it’s surprising the Pacers are home underdogs in this game.  We’ll back Indiana plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.       

9* Play PACERS (+).

Atlanta caught the league off-guard last season when they went 60-22 in the regular season.  The Hawks came into this season as a known commodity, and because of that, their opponents have come focused in their games.  Atlanta comes into tonight’s game with a 3-1 record, but two of those wins have come against the Charlotte Hornets and their other win was over the New York Knicks.  The Hawks’ two wins over Charlotte came by a combined 5 points, so they’ve struggled despite winning.  Atlanta is also dealing with injuries, and they are having an impact on both ends of the court.  Thabo Sefolosha (ankle) will miss tonight’s game while Jeff Teague (finger), Kyle Korver (ankle), and Mike Muscala (ankle) are all dealing with nagging injuries.   

Miami is finally 100% healthy, and the Heat have played terrific basketball on both ends of the court this season.  Miami comes into tonight’s game with a 2-1 record with their lone loss coming in Cleveland against the 3-1 Cavaliers.  Miami’s two home wins have come by 10 and 20 points while holding their opponents to just 94 and 89 points.  Miami owns the league’s third best offense in efficiency as they are averaging 1.07 points per 100 possessions; only Golden State and Oklahoma City rank higher.  Dwyane Wade is playing some of the best basketball of his career; he scored 20 points or more in all three games.  Miami’s defense has been stifling at home while only allowing 91.5 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 26.7% shooting from three-point land.  Miami is undervalued, and since they are catching Atlanta at less than 100%, we’ll lay the points with the Heat in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play HEAT (-).

Memphis and Golden State last met in the NBA playoffs last season with the Warriors winning in six games.  The Grizzlies put-up a good fight considering point Mike Conley was playing injured and their best defensive stopper, Tony Allen, was gimpy with a hamstring injury.  Memphis is now at full strength, and this is the game they’ve been pointing for.  The Grizzlies were embarrassed by Cleveland by 30 points in their season opener, but since that game, Memphis has won two games by 9 and 10 points.  The Grizzlies’ calling card is their defense, but so far this season, their offense has been terrific.  Memphis changed their lineup with Jeff Green now coming off the bench, and that move has paid dividends for the second unit.

Golden State was the best team in the NBA last season, and they’ve picked up right where they left off.  The Warriors are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS with all three wins coming by 14 points or more.  However, Golden State has played New Orleans twice and Houston; those teams are riddled with injuries and they are a combined 0-6 on the season.  In their last game in New Orleans, the Warriors scored 134 points after shooting 54.8% (46-84) from the field and 56.7% (17-30) from three-point land.  Stephen Curry scored 53 points on 63% (17-27) shooting from the field and 57.1% (8-14) from three-point land.  He out-scored the Pelicans 28-26 in the third quarter alone.  There has to be some regression tonight, especially against a strong defensive team like the Grizzlies.  We’ll take the generous points and back Memphis in this game on Monday night.

9* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Indianapolis is having a disappointing season to say the least.  The Colts come into this game with a losing 3-4 SU record, and they are just 2-5 ATS with one being a backdoor cover against the Patriots.  Indianapolis has underperformed on both sides of the ball, especially on defense.  The Colts are giving up 26.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play on the road, and overall they have faced a schedule of opponents that have averaged just 24.6 points on 5.7 yards per play in all games this season.  The Colts’ defense has been gashed on the ground recently as they’ve allowed 301 rushing yards on 5.8 yards per rush in their last two games.  Indianapolis will now face a potent Carolina rushing attack with a mobile quarterback; the Panthers are averaging 165 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush at home this season.

Carolina is one of four remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL, and we expect the Panthers to win once again tonight.  Carolina’s offense has been much improved this season; the Panthers are averaging 27 points per game.  This is a substantial improvement considering the Panthers averaged 22 points per game or less during the past three seasons.  Carolina’s defense has also played outstanding football this season; the Panthers are only allowing 18.3 points per game on 5.0 yards per play against offenses that average 22.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  At home, the Panthers hold opponents to just 4.7 yards per play.  The Colts' offense is only averaging 21.0 points per game this season (versus opponents that allow 24.4 ppg), so Indianapolis is up against it in this matchup.  We’ll lay the points with Carolina in this game on Monday night.  

10* Play PANTHERS (-).

New York comes into this game with a 4-2 record, and one of those losses came last week at New England who is 7-0 on the season.  The Jets’ other loss came at home to Philadelphia; a game in which the Jets turned the ball over 4 times.  New York will be primed for a big effort in this game in Oakland, especially since they are playing off a loss.  The Jets will have a big edge on the ground in this game; they average 136.5 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  Oakland’s defense has good seasonal numbers against the run, but they’ve played a weak slate of rushing attacks that only average 100 yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush.  The Jets’ ability to run the ball opens up the passing game for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who will throw on an Oakland secondary that has allowed 303.8 passing yards per game this season. 

Oakland was is in a terrific situational and scheduling spot for their game in San Diego last week.  The Raiders were off their bye, and they were catching the Chargers in a major flat spot off back-to-back close losses.  The Raiders took advantage and won 37-29.  Quarterback Derek Carr played a perfect game as he completed 77.4% (24-31) of his passes for 289 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Carr and the Oakland offense will be taking a monumental step-up in defensive class against the Jets in this game, and we expect major regression from the Raiders.  The Jets’ defense is only giving up 17.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  New York’s secondary is one of the best in the league as they hold opponents to just 211.7 passing yards per game on 5.3 yards per pass attempt.  New York is the better team in a focused spot, so we’ll back the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play JETS (-).

The New York Giants are 4-1 over their last five games after opening the season with back-to-back losses.  Aside from one poor outing, the Giants’ offense has been pretty good this season; they’ve scored 20 points or more in six of their seven games.  Overall, New York is averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season.  The Giants have played three road games this season, and if we eliminate the poor performance in Philadelphia where they only scored 7 points, New York’s offense has been good.  They scored 26 points in Dallas and 24 points in Buffalo.  The common thing about those two games is that they were played on artificial turf while the game in Philadelphia was on a natural grass.  This game will be played on a fast track inside a dome, so the Giants’ offense will match their offensive performances of their two good road games.            

New Orleans is in a poor situational spot for this game against New York.  The Saints come in off back-to-back easy wins in which they led wire-to-wire.  New Orleans beat a previously unbeaten Atlanta team 31-21 after jumping out to a 24-7 lead, and last week the Saints beat the Colts 27-21 after jumping out to a 27-0 lead.  New Orleans led by double digits for the majority of both games, and that simply sets them up to regress in this game.  The Saints’ defense has been poor once again this season as they’ve allowed 20 points or more in all seven of their games.  Overall, New Orleans is allowing 26.4 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Saints have been underdogs in five of their seven games this season; they lost outright to the Bucs and they needed overtime to escape the Cowboys by 3 points in the two games they were favored.  New York is simply the better team, so we’ll take the Giants plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

9* Play GIANTS (+).

Tennessee has played a brutal schedule this season.  The Vols have lost at Oklahoma, at Florida, versus Arkansas, and at Alabama.  Not many teams would survive that gauntlet, so we’re willing to forgive Tennessee for their poor 3-4 SU record, especially since those four losses have come by just a combined 17 points.  Tennessee’s offense only scored 14 points last week, but that was against the stout Alabama defense.  The Vols are taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game against Kentucky as the Wildcats have given up 99 points in their last three games.  Tennessee’s offense is averaging 33.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 26.1 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Tennessee has a potent rushing attack that averages 209 yards per game and they will now face a Kentucky rush defense that allows 173 yards per game on the ground.

Kentucky comes into this game off back-to-back losses because of their defense.  They gave up 30 points to Auburn, and 42 points last week to Mississippi State.  Kentucky’s defense is also injury riddled and they will be without their best defensive lineman while their secondary is in shambles.  Kentucky’s offense has underperformed this season as they are only averaging 24.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play despite playing the likes of Louisiana Lafayette, South Carolina, and Eastern Kentucky.  Tennessee has a solid defense that is giving up just 24.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus opponents that average 31.9 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Tennessee has played well all season despite their losing record, and since they are the superior team, we’ll lay the points with the Volunteers in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play TENNESSEE (-).

Rutgers comes into this game off a 49-7 blowout home loss to Ohio State last week.  The Scarlet Knights gave up 528 yards of total offense with 281 of those yards coming on the ground.  Rutgers allowed a whopping 5.7 yards per rush, and now they will face a Wisconsin team that will duplicate Ohio State’s success on the ground.  Rutgers’ offense has faced poor defenses that are allowing 30.5 points and 5.9 yards per play as a group.  The Scarlet Knights are taking a monumental step-up in class for this game as the Wisconsin defense only gives up 11.1 points per game on 4.7 yards per play.  That’s 19.4 points per game less and 1.2 yards per play less than the defenses that Rutgers has faced this season.  If we only use Wisconsin’s home numbers, the outcome is even more bleak for Rutgers.  The Badgers allow just 4 points per game at home on 3.7 yards per play.

Wisconsin comes into this game with a 6-2 SU record, including a 4-1 mark at home.  The Badgers have won all four home games by 17 points or more with their average win coming by 32 points per game.  At home, Wisconsin is averaging 28.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 25.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Wisconsin has obviously faced the much tougher defensive opponents than Rutgers, and the Badgers have performed better.  On the road this season, the Rutgers’ defense is giving up 40 points per game on a horrendous 8.1 yards per play.  Overall, Rutgers has faced a weak schedule of offensive opponents that have averaged just average 27.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Badgers on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play WISCONSIN (-).

Syracuse is a bad football team, and they are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game against Florida State.  The Orange come into this game off back-to-back close losses, including a wild 44-38 triple-overtime loss at Virginia.  Syracuse has been involved in close games in four of their last five games overall, and that is going to finally catch-up to them here.  Syracuse only played one team that is superior to them during that span, and that resulted in a 34-24 home loss to LSU.  That game was not really close as LSU out-yarded Syracuse 425-281.  The Orange defense has been shredded on the road this season.  Syracuse is allowing 44.5 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.6 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  This will be Syracuse’s third road game in four weeks, and in a terrible spot, we expect their defense to get torched in this game.

Florida State comes into this game off their first loss of the season.  We won a Best Bet selection on Georgia Tech after they beat the Seminoles 22-16 on a crazy blocked field goal touchdown return on the final play of the game.  But we thought Florida State would lose that game, so the loss is certainly excusable.  Florida State is a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season with their average win coming by 22 points per game.  The Seminoles are averaging 40.7 points per game on 7.5 yards per play at home, and those numbers match-up perfectly with the atrocious defensive road numbers for Syracuse listed above.  Florida State also has a terrific defense that is only allowing 16.1 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  Those strong numbers have come against offenses that average 26.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Florida State is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Seminoles in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Portland is a shell of the team that won 51 games last season.  Their season wins total was virtually cut in half for 2015.  With four of their five starters from last season gone, the Trail Blazers are starting from scratch.  Damian Lillard is the lone leftover from last year’s starting five.  The Trail Blazers are an extremely young team, and those guys played well above their heads in their season opener.  Portland beat the Pelicans 112-94 after shooting 50% (44-88) from the field.  However, New Orleans only dressed 9 players and they were playing on a back-to-back set.  Portland led 43-18 after the first quarter, but after that, the Trail Blazers got out-scored by 7 points over the final three quarters.  

Phoenix revamped their roster for 2015, and their moves were intended to help their team chemistry on and off the court.  Team basketball will be much better for the Suns this season, and that makes them a dangerous team, especially against opponents that are on their level.  Phoenix opened their season with a disappointing 111-95 home loss to Dallas.  The Suns shot just 39.1% (34-87) from the field and 25% (6-24) from three-point land.  Phoenix was taken out of their game in the first half because of fouls, so their season opener was not a true indicator of the Suns.  With Portland off an above average performance and Phoenix off a poor performance, the Suns are in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Friday night. 

9* Play SUNS (-).

Dallas has assembled a deep and talented roaster that has a lot of experience for the 2015 season.  The Mavericks are a veteran-laden team, but their age will set them up in some bad spots this season.  And tonight is one of those spots.  Dallas won 111-95 in Phoenix last night after shooting 47.1% (40-85) from the field and 47.6% (10-21) from three-point land.  The Mavericks had a good match-up considering the Suns have a revamped roster that is still learning how to play together.  Dallas is playing two guards, Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews, who are on a minutes restriction.  Williams hurt his knee last night, and his status is uncertain for tonight’s game.  So the Mavericks are an older team that has issues at both guard spots, and they are playing on a back-to-back road set while stepping way up in class.

Los Angeles also played last night; they beat the Kings 111-104 in Sacramento.  The Clippers shot well from the field (52.5%), but they were terrible from three-point land where they only shot 31.6% (6-19).  Los Angeles also missed 10 free throws yet they still scored 111 points.  The Clippers got rid of the dead weight from last season, and they brought in some experienced playoff veterans like Paul Pierce to help them get over the hump.  The Clippers have one of the best trios in the NBA with Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan, and their offense will simply score the ball at will once again this season.  Their biggest improvement is on the bench, and that is where they hold a major advantage over Dallas.  We’ll lay the points with the Clippers in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Miami was dreadful when they opened the season at 1-3.  That led to the firing of head coach Joe Philbin after their 27-14 blowout loss in London to the New York Jets.  Miami had a bye the following week, and in interim head coach Dan Campbell’s first game, the Dolphins won 38-10 in Tennessee.  The Dolphins followed that game with another blowout win last Sunday when they waxed Houston 44-26.  The back-to-back blowout wins look impressive, but keep in mind Miami beat two terrible teams that are a combined 3-10 on the season.  Miami is now taking a monumental step-up in class against the Patriots in this game; a team that is a perfect 6-0 on the season with a +87 point differential.  To compare, the Titans and Texans have a combined -65 point differential on the season.

New England is one of the five remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL, and they’ll remain in that group after tonight’s game.  The Patriots have won every game by 7 points or more with their average home win coming by 16 points per game.  New England’s defense has been terrific at home this season while holding opponents to just 20.3 points per game.  The Patriots’ strength remains on the offensive side of the ball where they are averaging 35.5 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that only allow 23.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  New England’s offense was in a terrible spot for last week’s game against the Jets, and they still scored 30 points on just 353 yards of total offense.  The Patriots are in a much better spot for this game while Miami is set to regress off back-to-back blowout wins.  We’ll lay the points with New England in this game on Thursday night. 

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

The New York Knicks are projected to be one of the worst teams in the NBA once again this season.  New York went 17-65 last season while breaking in a new system under new GM Phil Jackson and new head coach Derek Fisher.  The Knicks installed the triangle offense, but they simply did not have the right personnel nor the experience to run it correctly.  And that’s still the case with the Knicks, especially since they are working in new players like rookies Jerian Grant and Kristaps Porzingis with veterans Robin Lopez, Sasha Vujacic, and Derrick Williams.  New York will be without starting shooting guard Aaron Afflalo, Kevin Seraphin, and Lou Amundson due to injury.  The Knicks are basically a one-man team right now with Carmelo Anthony, and that’s not a good thing when facing a very good defensive team like the Bucks.

Milwaukee went 41-41 last season, and in their second year under head coach Jason Kidd, we expect the Bucks to improve even more.  Milwaukee added big man Greg Monroe who is fantastic inside the paint on both ends of the court.  The Bucks had an exceptional defense last season that held opponents to just 43.7% shooting from the field.  That defense should once again stifle opposing offenses, especially teams that have one main scoring threat like the Knicks.  Milwaukee held New York to 91 points or less in three of their four meetings last season with the Bucks winning those games by 8, 13, and 16 points.  We expect a similar result tonight, so we’ll lay the points with Milwaukee in their season opener at home.           

10* Play BUCKS (-).

Baltimore is having a disappointing season to say the least.  The Ravens come into this game with a terrible 1-5 SU record and they’ve yet to cover a spread as they are 0-5-1 ATS.  Baltimore has underperformed on both sides of the ball, especially on defense.  The Ravens are giving up 27 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Ravens’ secondary has been torched repeatedly; the unit has allowed 11 touchdown passes with just 3 interceptions while giving up 8.2 yards per pass attempt.  Those numbers have come against non-elite quarterbacks like Mike Vick, Colin Kaepernick, Josh McCown, and Derek Carr.  The Ravens will now face Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer who has thrown for 1,737 yards on 9.0 yards per pass attempt with a 14/5 touchdown/interception ratio this season.       

Arizona is just 1-2 after opening the season with three blowout wins.  The Cardinals return home off back-to-back road games with their last being an ugly 25-13 loss in Pittsburgh.  Arizona will be primed for a big effort in this game, and they get a perfect matchup to bounce back with a big win.  Arizona’s offense has been terrific this season; the Cardinals are averaging 33.8 points per game on 6.9 yards per play.  They put those numbers up against opposing defenses that allow 24.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Arizona’s defense has also played outstanding football this season; the Cardinals are only allowing 19.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play against offenses that average 5.7 yards per play.  At home, the Cardinals only give up 16.7 points per game, so the undermanned Baltimore offense is up against it in this game.  We’ll lay the points with Arizona in this game on Monday night.  

10* Play CARDINALS (-).

Atlanta was in a poor situational and scheduling spot for their road game in New Orleans the last time they played on a Thursday night.  The Falcons played well below expectations in that game, but we can easily excuse that loss.  Off that poor performance and with extra time to prepare for this game, we expect a peak effort from Atlanta against Tennessee.  The Falcons are averaging 30.5 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Atlanta will face a Tennessee defense that has been shredded at home this season.  The Titans are allowing 29 points per game at home on an ugly 6.4 yards per play.  Atlanta’s biggest offensive edge in this game will be on the ground as the Falcons run for 130 yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush.  Tennessee gives up 147 rushing yards per game at home on a whopping 5.3 yards per rush.          

Tennessee is 1-4 on the year after opening the season with a 42-14 blowout win in Tampa Bay.  Since that game, the Titans have been terrible, especially on offense.  Tennessee has scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games, and their offense will be hard-pressed to produce in this game.  Quarterback Marcus Mariota (MCL) is out along with starting center Brian Schwenke (leg).  The Titans now have a reshuffled offensive line after benching their right tackle for poor play.  Zach Mettenberger will start under center, but he’ll have to win this game thru the air because the Titans have a terrible running game that only averages 108 yards per game on 4.0 yards per rush despite facing defenses that allow 122 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per rush.  Atlanta only gives up 79 rushing yards per game on 3.6 yards per rush, so the Falcons have a monumental edge at the line of scrimmage.  Atlanta is the superior team in a focused spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Falcons in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play FALCONS (-).

Cleveland had an extremely phony season in 2014.  The Browns were 7-4 at one point before ending the season with a 7-9 record overall.  They were thoroughly out-played on the field, yet they miraculously were three games above .500 almost three quarters of the way thru the season.  Cleveland comes into this game with a 2-4 record with their wins coming over the Titans and Ravens who are a combined 2-9 on the season.  Cleveland’s offense has decent seasonal numbers because they’ve played a terrible collection of defenses that give up 5.5 yards per play.  The Browns have a poor running game (92 yards per game on 3.6 yards per rush), and that makes them a one-dimensional offense with a poor passing quarterback.  The Browns’ defense has also been poor; they are giving up 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.7 yards per play.   

St. Louis came into this season ready to win, but the Rams are just 2-3 on the year so far.  However, they’ve played a brutal schedule with games against the Packers, Cardinals, Steelers who are a combined 14-4 on the season.  St. Louis comes into this game fresh off their bye, and they are catching Cleveland off back-to-back overtime games with their last being a 26-23 home loss to Denver.  The Rams are also playing their first home game since September 27th, so they will be primed for a big effort, especially since they lost their last home game.  St. Louis has a good defense that is allowing just 22.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus opponents that average 6.1 yards per play.  St. Louis’ defense is taking a big step-down in offensive class against Cleveland in this game, and the Rams’ stop unit will dominate this game.  St. Louis is primed for their best while Cleveland is in a terrible situational and Scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Rams in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play RAMS (-).

Minnesota won a Best Bet for us last week in their win over Kansas City, and we’ll come right back with the Vikings again this week.  Minnesota has an outstanding running game that is led by Adrian Peterson.  The Vikings will control this game at the line of scrimmage as Minnesota averages 126 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  The Vikings put those numbers up on defenses that only give up 110 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush.  When Minnesota beat Detroit 26-16 back in Week 2, the Vikings ran for 199 yards on 42 attempts with Peterson running for 134 of those yards.  Minnesota’s ability to run the ball will open things up downfield for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater who was highly efficient in the first meeting when he completed 77.8% (14-18) of his passes.

Detroit got their first win of the season last week when they outlasted the Bears 37-34 in overtime.  That win puts the Lions at 1-5 on the season, and it appears Detroit will only be able to beat bad teams this season.  Detroit is only averaging 20 points per game on 5.5 yards per play; those numbers are inflated because of last week’s game.  The Lions have scored 17 points or less in four of their six games.  Detroit’s defense has been horrendous as they are giving up 28.7 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Minnesota already beat Detroit handily this season, and since the Lions are a mess of a team, we’ll back the Vikings in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play VIKINGS (-).

Florida State is a perfect 6-0 SU on the season, but the Seminoles may be the most fortunate team in the country.  Florida State has escaped defeat in their last three games; they won at Wake Forest by only 8 points (24-16) as a 19-point road favorite, they only beat Miami Florida by 5 points (29-24), and last week FSU trailed Louisville in the third quarter before winning by a misleading 20 points (41-21).  Florida State will now take to the road where they have been unimpressive this season.  Against two inferior teams (Boston College and Wake Forest) that have putrid offenses, Florida State only won by a combined scores of 14-0 and 24-16.  The Seminoles are only averaging 19 points per game on 5.0 yards per play on the road this season.  This is a poor situational spot for Florida State to be laying points on the road, especially since they are off back-to-back home wins against teams perceived to be better than the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia Tech comes into this game with just a 2-5 SU record after losing their last five games in a row.  The Yellow Jackets were favored in four of those five games, including at Notre Dame.  Now Georgia Tech is getting a full touchdown at home in this game which creates a lot of value, especially since my power ratings only make Florida State a 2-point favorite in this game.  The Yellow Jackets possess a potent rushing attack that averages 287 yards per game on 5.6 yards per rush.  Overall this season, Georgia Tech’s offense is averaging 37 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow just 28 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Georgia Tech is also playing with legitimate revenge after losing 37-35 to Florida State in the ACC championship game last season; they ran for 331 yards in that game.  We’ll take Georgia Tech plus the points in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Kansas State opened the season at 3-0, but that was mainly because of an easy schedule.  The Wildcats have gone 0-3 since, and that has coincided with stepping-up in class.  Kansas State battled Oklahoma State and TCU to the end, but they ended up coming up short in both games.  Those two games were high-scoring shootouts, and they were in a terrible spot for last week’s game against Oklahoma.  The Wildcats got embarrassed 55-0 at home in that game, and such a defeat often lingers, especially for a team that has mediocre talent at best.  Kansas State’s offense has underperformed this season despite playing a collection of weak defenses.  The Wildcats are only averaging 4.8 yards per play against opponents that allow 5.2 yards per play.  That’s a major problem, especially when your defense has given up 176 total points in the last four games.     

Texas comes into this game off a week of rest, so the Longhorns will be primed for a big effort.  This is also a game Texas has circled in red after getting shutout 23-0 at Kansas State last season.  The Longhorns hit rock bottom in that loss, and the embarrassing performance actually galvanized the team; Texas went on to win three straight games after facing the Wildcats.  Texas also comes into this game with confidence after beating Oklahoma in their last game, and this game has even more importance considering the Longhorns have lost their last two home games.  Texas has a power running game that is averaging 195 yards per game, and they will have a huge edge on the ground in this game considering Kansas State has allowed 474 rushing yards in their last two games.  Texas is in a terrific spot to get a big revenge win, so we’ll lay the points with the Longhorns in this game on Saturday afternoon.  

9* Play TEXAS (-).

Auburn comes into this game with a winning record at 4-2 SU, but getting those wins has not been easy.  The Tigers needed overtime to beat FCS Jacksonville State while getting out-yarded and losing the first down battle.  In fact, Auburn has been out-yarded in all four of their wins, and they’ve also lost the first down battle in every one of those games.  The Tigers are winning with smoke and mirrors, but they’ve been able to get away with it because of the weak opposition.  Auburn has been known for their explosive offense since head coach Gus Malzahn took over, but the offense has been non-existent this season.  The Tigers are only averaging 25.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Auburn will be facing an Arkansas defense that is taking a monumental step-down in offensive class in this game.  The Razorbacks are only giving up 23.2 points per game despite facing offenses that average 35.8 points per game.  Auburn averages 10.3 points per game less than the offenses Arkansas has been facing.

Arkansas is just 2-4 SU on the season, but they’ve played a brutal schedule.  The Razorbacks have played Toledo, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, at Tennessee and at Alabama; those teams are a combined 25-7 SU on the season.  Arkansas is now facing a much softer opponent in Auburn, and the Razorbacks come into this game fresh off their bye.  Arkansas will be playing their first home game since September 19th; that game was a loss.  The Razorbacks are also playing with revenge after getting smoked 45-21 at Auburn in their season opener last year.  Arkansas has a terrific running game that is averaging 177 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  They will have plenty of success on an Auburn defense that is allowing 198 rushing yards per game on 5.1 yards per rush.  Arkansas is in a good scheduling spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Razorbacks in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play ARKANSAS (-).

Northwestern opened the season with a perfect 5-0 record and a high ranking in the polls.  Since then, the Wildcats are 0-2 while losing those games by a combined score of 78-10.  It’s clear that Northwestern’s early record was phony and built on beating bad teams; their 16-6 win over Stanford certainly looks like a fluke now.  Northwestern’s first loss (38-0) came at Michigan, and that was excusable going into last week’s home game against Iowa.  But a 40-10 blowout loss on their home field is not excusable, and we expect that loss to linger.  Northwestern’s offense has been terrible all season; they only average 19.6 points per game on 4.4 yards per play.  Once they get down, it’s almost impossible for them to come back, and we expect that scenario to play out in this game against the Cornhuskers.        

Nebraska comes into this game with a 3-4 record, but the Cornhuskers could actually be 7-0 on the season.  Their four losses have come by a combined 11 points, and incredibly, all four losses have come on the final play of the game.  Nebraska won 48-25 in Minnesota last week, so they return home with momentum and confidence.  The Cornhuskers’ offense has been excellent this season, and they will control this game from the opening kick.  Nebraska is averaging 32.4 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 23.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Northwestern’s defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve played a weak group of offenses.  The Wildcats will face a Nebraska offense that is averaging 6.9 points per game more and 1.0 yards per play more than the offenses they have faced.  Nebraska is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Cornhuskers in this game on Saturday afternoon.    

9* Play NEBRASKA (-).

Toronto will play Game 6 of the ALCS in Kansas City on Friday night.  The Blue Jays will start David Price who got roughed-up by the Royals in Game 2.  Price gave up 5 earned runs in 6.2 innings of work in that game.  Price comes into this game in poor current form; he has allowed 15 runs in his last three starts (18.2 innings) for a terrible 6.75 ERA.  In his last two starts against Kansas City, Price has given up 10 runs and 19 hits in just 13 innings.  The Royals are 5-2 while hitting .284 and averaging 7.1 runs per game in their last seven games.  Kansas City is 55-31 at home where they are hitting .278 while scoring 4.7 runs per game this season.  Toronto’s bullpen is just 14-16 with a 4.01 ERA on the road, so Price has inconsistent support on the backend.

Kansas City will start Yordano Ventura in this game.  The Royals are 10-6 SU in his sixteen home starts this season.  Ventura has not lost in his three career starts against the Blue Jays while earning a solid 1.27 WHIP in those outings.  Toronto is hitting just .233 in their nine playoff games, so their offense has been weaker than the Royals who are batting .270 this postseason.  Kansas City holds a substantial bullpen advantage with an incredible 19-3 W/L record and 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at home while converting 27 of 33 save chances this season.  Closer Wade Davis is well rested, and he could be used for multiple innings if needed.  The Royals are 7-4 in their last 11 home meetings against the Blue Jays, including 4-1 in five home meetings this season.  Kansas City presents solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog in this game on Friday night.

10* Play ROYALS (+1.5 runline).

Louisiana Lafayette has gone 9-4 SU in four consecutive seasons, so they are the epitome of a consistent team.  The Ragin’ Cajuns come into this game at just 2-3, so this is a big game if they hope to continue their recent trend.  UL Lafayette is 19-5 SU in Sun Belt play over the last three years, and they are 7-1 in their last eight conference road games.  Their offense has been terrific in the five years under head coach Mark Hudspeth, and his system has proven to work against Sun Belt opponents.  They scored 49 points on 526 yards of total offense in their lone conference game so far this season.  Overall, UL Lafayette is averaging 30.8 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season.  The Ragin’ Cajuns racked up 55 points on 521 yards of offense on Arkansas State last season, and scoring points won’t be an issue in this game since the Red Wolves’ defense is allowing 32 points per game this season.

Arkansas State returns home off a 49-31 win at South Alabama last Tuesday night, but their win wasn’t as decisive as the final score indicates.  Arkansas State actually trailed 31-20 in the fourth quarter before scoring 29 points with two touchdowns coming on the defensive side of the ball.  The Red Wolves are now playing a much better team, and they cannot rely on their defense to generate points once again.  Arkansas State’s defense is poor as indicated above, and they are taking a big step-up in offensive class against UL Lafayette in this game.  The Red Wolves had a season wins total of 7, and the Ragin’ Cajuns had a season wins total of 8 yet UL Lafayette is getting a full touchdown in this game.  The Ragin’ Cajuns also had extra time to prepare for this game since they last played on October 10th.  We’ll take the points with UL Lafayette in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play UL LAFAYETTE (+).

Toronto will host Kansas City for Game 3 of the ALCS on Monday night.  The Blue Jays will go with Marcus Stroman who has only started six games this season and hasn’t been sharp in the playoffs, allowing 6 runs in 13 innings of work this postseason.  Stroman will face another stiff challenge in this game against a Kansas City team that is 67-41 SU against right-handed starters this year while averaging 4.7 runs with a .265 batting average.  Kansas City is averaging 5.1 runs per game in the playoffs with a .248 team batting average, .315 OBP and .429 SLG, all of which are the best of any playoff team this postseason.  Toronto’s bullpen is just 23-28 SU on the year with 22 blown saves, so Stroman has inconsistent support on the backend tonight.

Kansas City will start Johnny Cueto who is coming off an excellent outing against Houston last week when he gave up just 2 runs and 2 hits in 8 innings of work.  He struck out 8 batters while walking none in that game.  Cueto has pitched well against Toronto in two starts the past two seasons, allowing just 4 earned runs in 14 innings for a 2.57 ERA with a 15/3 K/BB ratio.  Jose Bautista (2-8), Russell Martin (1-17), Ben Revere (0-6) and Troy Tulowitzki (3-16) have all struggled versus the right-hander.  Toronto is just 1-2 SU at home in the playoffs this year where they are hitting an awful .181 as a team.  Kansas City’s bullpen has been fantastic this season with a 33-14 SU record in all games with a 2.68 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while converting 43-of-59 (79%) of their save opportunities, so Cueto has plenty of support on the backend.  The Royals have now won nine straight ALCS games, including going a perfect 6-0 SU since last year.  Kansas City presents solid value as a +1.5 runline underdog in Game 3 of this ALCS on Monday night.

9* Play ROYALS (+1.5 runline).

Washington was is in a terrific situational and scheduling spot for their game in Atlanta last week.  The Redskins were catching the Falcons in a major flat spot, and we won a Best Bet selection on Washington even though they blew the game in overtime.  Off that overtime loss, Washington is now the team in the bad spot, and we’ll play against them for that reason.  The Redskins have also been hit with cluster injuries along their offensive line as their starting center and left tackle will both miss this game.  Quarterback Kirk Cousins will now face a stout New York front seven with a makeshift offensive line; that’s not a good thing for a limited signal caller.  Overall, Washington’s offense is only averaging 19.4 points per game on 5.4 yards per play this season.  The Redskins will have limited scoring opportunities in this game against a Jets’ defense that is only giving up 13.7 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.   

New York comes into this game fresh off their bye after controlling the Dolphins in London.  The Jets are 3-1 on the season with their lone loss coming in their last home game against Philadelphia; a game in which the Jets turned the ball over 4 times.  New York will be primed for a big effort in front of their home fans, especially since their next home game after this comes on November 8th.  The Jets will have a big edge on the ground in this game, especially after Washington gave up 156 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per rush to the Falcons last week.  The Jets average 127.2 yards on the ground per game, and that opens up the passing game for QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.  New York is the better team and they are catching Washington at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.      

10* Play JETS (-).

Kansas City comes into this game off an inexcusable 18-17 home loss to the Bears last week.  The Chiefs were leading 17-3 at the half before getting out-scored 15-0 over the final 30 minutes of the game; it was 17-6 with 3:05 left to play in the game.  That loss was Kansas City’s fourth straight after winning their season opener in Houston.  The Chiefs also lost their best player, running back Jamaal Charles, to a season-ending knee injury.  After he got hurt, Kansas City’s offense did nothing on six drives against a terrible Chicago defense.  The Chiefs’ offense will struggle to move the ball consistently now, especially since Charles was also a terrific pass catcher out of the backfield.  Kansas City’s defense has underperformed this season.  The Chiefs are giving up 28.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 23.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.     

Minnesota is fresh off their bye, and since they went into their week of rest off a loss, the Vikings will be primed for a big effort in this game.  Minnesota is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season; they won those games by 10 and 17 points.  The Vikings have an outstanding running game that is led by Adrian Peterson; Minnesota averages 136.5 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per rush.  The Vikings put those numbers up on defenses that only give up 112.9 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will face a terrible Kansas City secondary that has allowed 13 touchdown passes this season.  Minnesota’s ability to run the ball will open things up downfield for Bridgewater.  The Vikings’ defense is giving up just 15 points per game on 5.1 yards per play at home this season, so they will stifle the pedestrian Kansas City offense.  We’ll lay the points with Minnesota in this game on Sunday afternoon.        

9* Play VIKINGS (-).

Oregon is having a disappointing season to say the least; the Ducks come into this game at just 3-3 SU.  They also come in off a home loss to Washington State, so we can be assured of a good effort in this game tonight.  Oregon has played their two best games of the season when coming off a loss in their previous game; they beat Georgia State 61-28 and they won at Colorado 41-24 following losses.  The Ducks closed as a 5-point underdog at undefeated Michigan State, so the fact that Oregon is now a 3-point underdog at Washington makes very little sense.  My power ratings make Oregon a 1-point favorite in this game, so there is value with the Ducks, especially with them playing off a loss.  Overall, Oregon’s running game has been fantastic as always; they are averaging 319 yards per game on a whopping 6.3 yards per rush.  Oregon’s ability to run the ball will be the difference in this game.

Washington comes into this game off an upset win at USC; the Huskies were a 17-point underdog in that game.  But with the latest developments with the Trojans, that win may not hold much weight going forward.  The Huskies are in their second season under head coach Chris Petersen, and the overwhelming consensus was that they were in rebuilding mode.  Washington’s season wins total was only 4.5 games, so with a 3-2 SU record, the Huskies have overachieved greatly so far.  To compare, Oregon’s season wins total was 9.5 games which makes this pointspread inflated simply because of recent results.  In fact, Oregon was a 15-point road favorite in this game at the Golden Nugget when this line was originally released in June.  Washington’s defense has faced a weak slate of rushing offenses that only average 143 yards per game on 4.0 yards per rush.  The Huskies’ defense will face a stiff challenge against Oregon’s potent rushing attack that averages 304 yards per game more and 2.3 yards per rush more than the offenses Washington has faced.  Oregon is in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll take the value and the points with the Ducks in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play OREGON (+).

Michigan State comes into this game with a perfect 6-0 SU record, but they also own an 0-6 record against the spread.  That is a major red flag, especially for a team ranked as high as Michigan State.  The Spartans have played an extremely easy schedule, and four of their six games have been at home.  Michigan State has played a terrible slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 30 points per game on 5.8 yards per play as a group.  The Spartans’ offense has only averaged 31.3 points per game on 5.9 yards per play against those opponents.  Now they will be taking a monumental step-up in defensive class against Michigan in this game, and Michigan State’s offense projects to have one of their worst games of the season.  The Spartans have had issues on their offensive line, and with Michigan’s ability to control the line of scrimmage, Michigan State will have a difficult time moving the ball consistently in this game.

Michigan has been tremendous since losing their season opener at Utah.  The Wolverines have won five straight games by a combined score of 160-14.  Granted, they haven’t played much in terms of competition, but their defense has been absolutely tremendous in those games, including  three consecutive shutouts.  The Wolverines’ defense has held their six opponents to a total of 38 points this season.  Overall, Michigan is only allowing 6.3 points per game on 3.1 yards per play versus offenses that average 26.4 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  Michigan State will face a defense that gives up 23.7 points per game less and 2.7 yards per play less than the opponents MSU has played this season.  On the surface, the line looks ridiculously high, but my power ratings actually make Michigan a solid 10-point favorite in this game.  This is Michigan’s biggest game of the season as they’ve lost to their rival the last two years by a combined score of 64-17.  It’s payback time, and since Michigan is the better team, we’ll lay the points with the Wolverines in this home game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play MICHIGAN (-).

Louisiana Tech and Mississippi State both come into this game at 4-2 SU on the season, and their losses have come against good opponents.  Louisiana Tech lost to Western Kentucky and Kansas State while Mississippi State lost to LSU and Texas A&M.  The La Tech Bulldogs are used to playing close games, and in fact, five of their last six losses dating back to last season have come by 6 points or less with four of those losses coming by 3 points.  Head coach Skip Holtz has been a tremendous underdog coach going back to his South Florida days, so he’ll have his Bulldogs ready for this game.  Louisiana Tech has an explosive offense that is averaging 39.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  The Bulldogs are well-balanced as they are averaging 174 yards on the ground and 320 yards thru the air per game.  Louisiana Tech will be just the second potent offense that Mississippi State has faced all season; Texas A&M scored 30 points on 519 yards of offense on MSU.

Mississippi State also has a potent offense that averages 32.3 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  But the Bulldogs have played a terrible collection of defenses this season whose opponents are giving up 30.4 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Louisiana Tech’s defense is holding opponents to 26.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play, so Mississippi State is taking a step-up in defensive class in this game.  MSU will be facing a defense that gives up 4.2 points per game less and 0.8 yards per play less than the opponents they’ve faced this year, yet MSU is still laying close to two touchdowns.  There is not much that separates these two teams, and since my power ratings only make Mississippi State a 9-point favorite, we’ll take the points and value with Louisiana Tech in this early game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play LOUISIANA TECH (+).

Boise State is 5-1 on the season, but the Broncos should be a perfect 6-0.  They lost on a 4th and 7 Hail Mary touchdown pass at BYU in Week 2.  Since that defeat, Boise State has gone on a rampage, beating their opponents by a combined score of 204-24.  However, the Broncos played four terrible teams in those games, and their opponents all had one thing in common, a terrible defense.  In fact, Boise State has faced a collection of defenses this season that are allowing 34 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Broncos are taking a monumental step-up in defensive class in this game against Utah State, and they are doing so on the road.  This will be Boise State’s toughest game in over a month; they played BYU back on September 12th.   

Utah State has been terrific in their last two games; they’ve won by a combined score of 89-32.  Granted, they played two bad football teams, but those wins have them coming into this game with a lot of confidence and momentum.  The Aggies’ defense has been outstanding this season; they are holding opponents to just 19.2 points per game on 4.4 yards per play.  That’s 14.8 points per game less and 1.5 yards per play less than the defenses Boise State has faced this season.  Utah State is only allowing 102.4 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per rush.  Those numbers are significantly less than the defenses Boise State has faced.  The Broncos’ defensive opponents allow 215 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush.  Utah State will bring their best effort in this game, and since they have the defense to control Boise State’s offense, we’ll take the points with the Aggies on Friday night.

10* Play UTAH STATE (+).

Kansas City will host Toronto for Game 1 of the ALCS on Friday night.  The Royals will start Edinson Volquez who is 8-4 with a 3.48 ERA and a solid 1.23 WHIP in his sixteen home starts this season.  Volquez has been terrific versus Toronto in 2015.  He has allowed just 3 earned runs and 9 hits in 11.1 innings of work for a 2.38 ERA.  Jose Bautista (3-17), Russell Martin (1-6), Ben Revere (0-8), Justin Smoak (0-5) and Troy Tulowitzki (3-14) have all struggled against the right-hander.  Toronto’s offense is only hitting .234 in their last seven games, and just .228 in the playoffs, so they are not in the best of form.  The Royals’ bullpen is an incredible 18-3 with 26 saves in 32 chances (81%) at home this season.  The unit owns a 2.51 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home, so Volquez has plenty of support on the backend tonight.

Toronto will start Marco Estrada who lost his last start in Kansas City back on July 10th after giving up 9 hits in just 6.2 innings of work.  Lorenzo Cain (2-6), Eric Hosmer (4-5), Alcides Escobar (2-7), and Alex Rios (2-5) have all had success versus the right-hander.  The Royals are averaging 5.1 runs in their last seven games, including 5.0 runs in their five playoff games, so they enter tonight in good current form offensively.  Kansas City has a strong home field where they are 53-31 SU this season.  Both teams are coming off emotional Game 5 home wins in the previous round, but the situation is much worse for Toronto as they must travel on just one day's rest, while the Royals have the benefit of remaining at home.  Kansas City presents solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog in Game 1 of the ALCS on Friday night.

9* Play ROYALS (+1.5 runline).

Atlanta was in a poor situational and scheduling spot for their home game against Washington last week.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Redskins in that game despite the Falcons winning in overtime.  We even predicted that Atlanta’s offense would have their worst production of the season, and they did just that by only scoring 12 points in the first 59 minutes of the game.  Off that expected poor performance, Atlanta’s offense will get back to their scoring ways in this game against the putrid New Orleans defense.  The Falcons are averaging 32.4 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.3 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.      

New Orleans is 1-4 on the season, and the Saints should actually be 0-5 as they were fortunate to beat the Cowboys in overtime a couple of weeks back.  The Saints’ defense has been atrocious despite playing weak offenses like the Buccaneers and Panthers.  Overall, New Orleans is giving up 28.6 points per game on an eye-popping 6.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 26.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Saints are taking a step-up in offensive class against the Falcons in this game as Atlanta is averaging 6.3 points per game more than the offenses New Orleans has faced so far this season.  The Saints’ offense has been inefficient all season; they’ve scored 19 points or less in three of their five games.  Atlanta is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Falcons in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play FALCONS (-).

Arkansas State finally has the same coach (Blake Anderson) for a second season in a row; their three previous coaches were all one and done.  The Red Wolves have been a consistent team over the last three seasons despite the coaching carousel.  They are 27-17 over their last 44 games, so they’ve developed a winning tradition in Jonesboro.  With 15 returning starters, the Red Wolves were projected to win 7 games this season.  They come into this game at 2-3, but they’ve played USC, Missouri, and Toledo.  Their two wins have come against teams on their level, and they won those games by a combined score of 119-42.  Arkansas State was also playing without their quarterback Terrance Knighten in the last three games, but he is expected to return for this game.  The Red Wolves have averaged 30.4 points per game with their backup freshman quarterback, and they’ll be even better with Knighten under center.   

South Alabama was projected to be a poor team this season.  The Jaguars season wins total was set at 3, and with an early 3-2 record, they’ve overachieved thus far.  South Alabama has played an extremely weak schedule so far, and their blowout losses at Nebraska and to North Carolina State look worse now considering how those two teams have played since.  Despite a winning record, South Alabama has been out-played on both sides of the ball.  The Jaguars are only averaging 22.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Their defense has given up 32.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.2 points per game on 5.1 yards per play.  South Alabama is a phony team, and they are playing one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt conference.  We’ll back Arkansas State in this game on Tuesday night.      

9* Play ARKANSAS STATE (-).

Pittsburgh is 2-2 SU and 3-0-1 ATS this season.  However, that pointspread record is phony as they scored with 2 seconds left against New England, and they covered a game in which they scored all of 12 points.  The Steelers blew a big divisional game last Thursday night at home against the Ravens, and it was evident from watching that game, that the Steelers are a one-dimensional team with Mike Vick at quarterback.  Vick still has mobility, but he cannot throw the ball downfield at all.  That element is a big part of Pittsburgh’s offense with Ben Roethlisberger under center, and it maximizes the skills of their wide receivers.  With Vick at quarterback, the Steelers are limited and highly predictable.  Pittsburgh will lean heavily on running back Le’Veon Bell, but that will allow the San Diego defense to contain the Steelers’ offense in this game.

San Diego is 2-2 on the season, and the Chargers will finally play their first back-to-back home game of the season.  San Diego beat the Browns last Sunday after returning home off back-to-back road losses.  Overall this season, San Diego’s offense has played good football as they are averaging 24 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  The Chargers put those numbers up against opposing defenses that allow 23.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  Pittsburgh’s defense is giving up 6.0 yards per play on the road this season, so the Chargers’ offense will move the ball consistently in this game.  San Diego will also get Antonio Gates back from suspension, and he is a vital part of the Chargers’ offense.  We’ll back San Diego in this game on Monday night.

10* Play CHARGERS (-).

San Francisco was in a terrific spot at home last week against the Packers.  The 49ers were returning home off back-to-back blowout road losses while catching Green Bay on a short week in the ultimate flat spot.  Still, with all that in their favor, San Francisco played a terrible game and lost 17-3.  San Francisco’s on-field play has been atrocious, and it appears the team is in for a long season.  The 49ers have been out-played on both sides of the ball, and their offense is downright pathetic.  San Francisco is only averaging 12 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  They’ve scored just 10 total points in their last two games.  San Francisco’s defense has been terrible as they are giving up 27.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play.  After holding the Vikings to just 3 points in their season opener, the 49ers have given up 107 points in their last three games. 

New York has won back-to-back games after opening the season with back-to-back losses.  The Giants return home with momentum and confidence, and their offense will move the ball at will on the poor San Francisco defense.  New York is averaging 25.5 points per game with their offensive strength coming thru the air.  Quarterback Eli Manning has thrown for 976 yards with a 7/1 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  He will be facing a 49ers secondary that has allowed a whopping 9.2 yards per pass attempt this season.  New York’s defense shouldn't have any problem in shutting down the pedestrian San Francisco offense.  The Giants are only giving up 20.5 points per game despite playing a group of offenses that average 26.3 points per game.  New York is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Giants in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play GIANTS (-).

Arizona was in a terrible spot for their home game against St. Louis last week, and we cashed a Best Bet on the Rams in their 24-22 outright win as 7-point underdogs.  Off that expected poor performance, Arizona is now in a terrific bounce back spot for this game in Detroit.  The Cardinals are the superior team by a wide margin, and we expect them to play up to their level in this game.  Arizona’s offense has been terrific this season; the Cardinals are averaging 37 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  Quarterback Carson palmer has been outstanding while throwing for 1,155 yards with a 10/3 touchdown/interception ratio this season.  Arizona’s defense has also played extremely well as they are only allowing 18.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  All three of Arizona’s wins this season have come by 12 points or more with their average win coming by a whopping 25.7 points per game which shows how dominating they’ve been.      

Detroit returns home after a terrible performance in Seattle where they actually should have won the game.  The Lions fumbled the ball on the goal line while going in for the game-winning touchdown with just over a minute left to play.  That stinging loss moved Detroit to 0-4 this season, and their season appears to be spiraling out of control.  The players have called out their coaches, and that is a clear indication that there’s turmoil inside the Lions locker room.  Detroit is only averaging 16.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play despite facing a collection of defenses that allow 20.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Detroit’s defense has been even worse as they are giving up 24 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Arizona is in a focused spot, and since Detroit is simply a mess of a team, we’ll lay the points with the Cardinals in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play CARDINALS (-).

Washington comes into this game with a lot of momentum after winning 23-20 at home in the final seconds last week.  The Redskins are now 2-2 on the season, and they’ve played much better football than expected.  Washington’s lone road game this season resulted in a 32-21 loss in New York against the Giants, but that loss can be excused as the Redskins were playing a Thursday night game on a short week after winning 24-10 as home underdogs.  So if we eliminate that game, Washington looks good at 2-1 with their lone loss being a 7-point defeat.  Washington’s defense, especially their defensive line, is very good, and that unit will have a major advantage against the patched-up Atlanta offensive line.  The Falcons’ line has played well so far this season, but that’s because they’ve played four weak defensive fronts which has allowed QB Matt Ryan to gash opponents thru the air.  Washington’s defense is only giving up 19.7 points per game, so there’s a good chance the Falcons’ offense will have their lowest scoring output to date in this game.     

Atlanta comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 record both SU and ATS.  Atlanta has scored 24 points or more in every game with their last being a 27-point demolition of Houston.  The Falcons have scored 87 points in their last two games, but with a step-up in defensive class, we expect major regression in this game.  Fortunately for the Falcons, they’ve been able to out-score their opponents because their defense has played below average football this season.  Atlanta is allowing 23.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  As mentioned above, the Falcons’ offense will face a stout Washington defense, so this game will be much different than their last two games.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Washington on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play REDSKINS (+).

California and Utah both come into this game with perfect records, but of the two, Utah has clearly played the much tougher schedule.  California is 5-0 SU on the season, but the Golden Bears have played an extremely weak slate of opponents, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  California’s offense is averaging 43.4 points per game on 6.7 yards per play.  However, those numbers have come against a collection of defenses that are giving up 35.2 points per game on 5.9 points per game.  California is taking a monumental step-up in defensive class against Utah in this game.  The Utes are holding opponents to just 18.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  California will now be playing their third road game over the past four weeks while also playing in the thin air and altitude of Utah.

The Utes are a perfect 4-0 SU on the season, and they’ve been extremely impressive.  Utah own home wins over Michigan and Utah State, and an eye-opening 62-20 road win at Oregon.  The Utes comes into this game off their bye, so they will be fresh and ready to roll.  That’s a big scheduling edge over California considering what we mentioned above.  Utah is averaging 38.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that are only giving up 26.4 points per game on 5.0 yards per play.  Utah’s defense has been tremendous this season as mentioned above; they are allowing 16.5 points per game less than the defenses California has faced this season.  California is not nearly as good as their 5-0 SU record indicates, so we’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play UTAH (-).

Florida comes into this game with a perfect 5-0 record, and the Gators are the flavor of the week in the media.  Florida won 38-10 as 6.5-point home underdogs to Mississippi last Saturday, but now they are laying points on the road.  That’s way too much of an overreaction to last week’s results.  The Gators have played in three consecutive tough conference games.  They won 14-9 at Kentucky and then they came back from a 27-14 deficit with just over four minutes to play to beat Tennessee 28-27 the following week.  Those two games came before last week’s upset win over Mississippi; the Gators are ripe for a letdown this week.  Florida is an extremely young team that is led by freshman, including quarterback Will Grier.  The Gators’ offense has faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 28.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play as a group.  Florida is taking a monumental step-up in defensive class in this game, and we do not expect the Gators’ offense to have much success.   

Missouri has been a terrific team over the last couple of seasons.  The Tigers are 27-6 in their last 33 games, including 4-1 so far in 2015.  Missouri’s strength over the last few years has been on the defensive side of the ball; they’ve allowed 23.5 points per game or less in four of the last five seasons.  The Tigers’ defense has been phenomenal this season; they are giving up just 12 points per game on 373 total yards per game.  Missouri is holding their opponents to just 4.0 yards per play, so teams have had an extremely difficult time moving the football consistently on the Tigers.  Missouri’s defense allows 16.9 points per game less and 1.5 yards per play than the defenses Florida has faced this season.  Missouri has dominated this series over the last two seasons, winning by a combined score of 78-30.  With Florida overvalued and in a terrible scheduling and situational spot, we’ll back the Tigers in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSOURI (+).

Georgia Tech comes into this game with a 2-3 record after losing their last three games.  The Yellow Jackets were favored in all three of those games, including at Notre Dame.  Now they will face a Clemson team that just beat Notre Dame at home as 3-point favorites.  However, Georgia Tech is getting a full touchdown in this game which creates a lot of value if we compare the lines from the common opponent.  The Yellow Jackets possess a potent rushing attack that averages 311.8 yards per game on a whopping 5.7 yards per rush.  Overall this season, Georgia Tech’s offense is averaging 41.4 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that allow 30.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Georgia Tech’s defense has also played well despite the losing record.  The Yellow Jackets are giving up 23.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. 

Clemson is off their big spotlight home win over Notre Dame last week, so this is not a good scheduling spot at all.  This is also a poor situational spot for Clemson as they had a bye prior to their game last week, and now they have to face Georgia Tech’s triple option with just one week to prepare.  Clemson lost 28-6 to Georgia Tech last season after giving 251 yards on the ground.  Clemson had a veteran defense with experience against the triple-option last season, and they still couldn’t stop it.  The Tigers are an extremely talented team, but they are young and inexperienced with only 3 returning starters on defense this season.  Clemson is 4-0 this season, but the Tigers are 0-2 against the spread versus Louisville and Notre Dame.  Clemson is simply overvalued in this game because of recent results, and since they are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot, we’ll take the points with the Yellow Jackets on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Washington and USC both come into this game off a bye, but they went into their off week from opposite directions.  Washington lost 30-24 at home to California while USC won 42-14 at Arizona State.  The Huskies are in their second season under former Boise State head coach Chris Petersen, so they are still in rebuilding mode.  Washington comes into this game with a 2-2 record, but they’ve played just one road game so far this season.  The Huskies were terrible in that road game as they scored just 13 points while gaining 179 yards of total offense in their loss at Boise State.  Overall, Washington has faced a weak slate of opposing defenses that are giving up 26.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play as a group.  The Huskies are are taking a monumental step-up in defensive class in this game as USC gives up just 17.5 points per game on 5.2 yards per play. 

USC bounced back strong in their last game after getting upset at home by Stanford in their previous game.  The Trojans are 3-1 on the season with their three wins coming by 49, 50, and 28 points.  USC has been dominant on both sides of the ball; they are averaging 46.7 points per game on a whopping 8.1 yards per play.  Washington’s defense has faced a weak slate of opposing offenses that are only averaging 25.8 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  As mentioned above, USC’s defense has been stout, so they will shutdown the pedestrian offense of Washington in this game.  Trojans’ signal caller Cody Kessler has been the best quarterback in the country this season; he is completing 73% (89-122) of his passes on 10.6 yards per pass attempt with an incredible 15/1 touchdown/interception ratio.  USC is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Trojans in this game on Thursday night. 

9* Play USC (-).

Detroit was in a terrific spot at home last week against the Broncos.  The Lions were playing their first home game of the season in primetime while catching Denver on back-to-back road games after a miraculous come from behind win in Kansas City.  The Lions only trailed by 2 points late in the fourth quarter before imploding and losing 24-12.  After that loss, the players started to call out their coaches in the media, and that’s not a good sign.  That is a clear indication that there’s turmoil within the Lions locker room, and since their on-field play has been atrocious, Detroit appears to be in for a long season.  The Lions come into this game with an 0-3 record after being out-played on both sides of the ball.  Detroit is only averaging 18.7 points per game on 5.1 yards per play despite facing a collection of defenses that allow 21 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Detroit’s defense has been even worse as they are giving up 27.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.

Seattle bounced back strong last week when they notched their first win of the season.  The Seahawks beat the Bears 26-0 after losing in St. Louis and in Green Bay to begin the season.  Seattle comes into this game with momentum and confidence, and their offense will move the ball at will on the poor Detroit defense even without Marshawn Lynch; he will miss this game with injury.  So far this season, Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown 30 passes or more in all three games.  The Seahawks haven’t been reliant on Lynch, so his absence here isn’t a detriment, especially since Detroit’s defensive strength is stopping the run.  Wilson will face a Lions secondary that has allowed 78.2% (79-101) completions for 882 yards on a whopping 8.7 yards per pass attempt.  Seattle is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Seahawks in this game on Monday night. 

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

St. Louis came into this season ready to win.  The Rams won their season opener over Seattle, but the last two weeks have resulted in losses.  Their defeat in Washington in Week 2 was expected; we had a Best Bet winner on the Redskins in that game.  Last week, St. Louis lost at home in an ugly 12-6 game to Pittsburgh.  Off back-to-back losses, the Rams will hit the road and play a divisional game against the Cardinals in Arizona.  And the setup couldn’t be any better for St. Louis.  The Rams will bring their peak effort in this game, and their excellent defense will lead the way.  St. Louis is allowing just 22.3 points per game on 325 yards of total offense.  The Rams are giving up just 5.2 yards per play versus opponents that average 5.8 yards per play.  St. Louis is tied for the league lead in sacks with 13, and they’ve only allowed 2 passing touchdowns in three games this season.      

Arizona comes into this game with a perfect 3-0 record, but the Cardinals have played the easiest schedule in the league so far.  Arizona owns wins over the Saints, Bears, and 49ers who are a combined 1-8 on the season.  Those three teams also have terrible defenses that are allowing 31.3 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense is taking a monumental step-up in defensive class against the St. Louis defense in this game as the Rams are allowing 9 points per game less and 1.4 yards per play less than the defenses the Cardinals have faced.  Arizona is set to regress sharply in this game, especially after dominating their last two games while winning by a combined score of 95-30.  This is an exceptional spot to play against Arizona, and since St. Louis is primed for their best, we’ll take the points with the Rams in a game they have a very good shot at winning outright.  

10* Play RAMS (+).

Cleveland had an extremely phony season in 2014.  The Browns were 7-4 at one point before ending the season with a 7-9 record overall.  They were thoroughly out-played on the field, yet they miraculously were three games above .500 almost three quarters of the way thru the season.  Cleveland comes into this game with a 1-2 record despite playing the Jets, Titans, and Raiders.  The Browns have underperformed on both sides of the ball against those three opponents.  Cleveland is only averaging 19.3 points per game against those defenses that give up 22.7 points per game as a group.  The Browns have no consistency at quarterback as they’ve rotated between Johnny Manziel and Josh McCown; the latter will start this game.  Cleveland has no running game whatsoever (86.3 yards per game), and that makes them a one-dimensional offense with a pair of poor passing quarterbacks.  The Browns’ defense has also been poor; they are giving up 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.8 yards per play.   

San Diego returns home off back-to-back road losses, so we can be assured of a peak effort in this game.  The Chargers have been terrific in this situation in their two years under head coach Mike McCoy.  San Diego is 4-1 SU at home when playing off a road loss; they’ve won those games by an average of 8.8 points per game.  Overall this season, San Diego’s offense has played good football as they are averaging 22 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Chargers put those numbers up against opposing defenses that allow 21 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  San Diego is taking a major step-down in defensive class for this game against Cleveland, so the Chargers’ offense will breakout in this game after scoring just 33 total points in their last two games.  San Diego gets the perfect opponent to notch an easy win, so we’ll lay the points with the Chargers on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CHARGERS (-).

Carolina has played an extremely easy schedule so far, and they’ve capitalized by going 3-0 in those games.  Fortunately for the Panthers, they get another poor opponent in this game against Tampa Bay.  Carolina has won games this season by controlling the ball and the clock while allowing their defense to dominate their overmatched opponents.  The Panthers’ defense is only giving up 16 points per game on 315 yards of total offense.  Carolina is holding opponents to just 4.6 yards per play.  The Panthers have an excellent run-stuffing defense that only allows 75.7 yards per game on the ground on just 3.3 yards per rush.  Their ability to dominant the line of scrimmage is the key factor in this game, especially against a poor offensive team that has had trouble running and throwing the ball consistently.      

Tampa Bay has also played a weak slate of opponents, but they are just 1-2 on the season.  The Buccaneers are in rebuilding mode with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston under center.  Winston has faced three poor defensive teams that are allowing an average of 24.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Winston and the Tampa Bay offense are only averaging 16.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Now they will be facing the best defense they’ve seen all season; Carolina allows 8.6 points per game less and 1.4 yards per play less than the defenses Tampa Bay has faced.  Tampa Bay’s defense has also been poor as they are giving up 26.7 points per game this season.  Carolina is simply the superior team with a massive edge on the line of scrimmage, so we’ll lay the points with the Panthers in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play PANTHERS (-).

Hawaii comes into this game with a 2-2 record with both of their wins coming at home.  The Rainbow Warriors have shown no ability to play well on the road this season as they’ve lost their two away games by a combined score of 66-0.  That trend of playing poorly on the road has been a constant in recent seasons; they’ve lost by margins of 38, 28, 39, 47, 38, 35 in prior away games.  Hawaii will be playing their second consecutive game on the mainland, and this will also be their third road game in the last four weeks.  The Rainbow Warriors have no chance to match points with the potent Boise State offense, especially since Hawaii is only averaging 18.7 points per game on 296.7 yards of offense per game.  Overall, Hawaii is only averaging 4.9 yards per play this season, so they will have difficulty moving the ball consistently in this game.  

Boise State is 3-1 on the season, and they actually should be a perfect 4-0.  The Broncos lost on a Hail Mary touchdown pass to BYU in their second game of the season.  Boise State has won their last two games by a combined score of 108-14, and they will notch their third consecutive blowout win in this game.  Boise State is averaging 37 points per game on 435.7 yards of offense per game.  Overall, the Broncos are averaging 5.7 yards per play, so they will move the ball at will on a weak Hawaii defense that got steamrolled in both of their road games this season.  Boise State’s defense has been tremendous this season; they are holding opponents to just 15.5 points per game on 282.7 yards of offense per game.  The Broncos allow just 4.2 yards per play on defense, and that has come against better offenses than Hawaii.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Saturday night.

10* Play BOISE STATE (-).

Colorado State comes into this game with a 2-2 record, but the rest of the Rams’ season doesn’t project to be too good.  The Rams are a rebuilding football team with a new head coach in Mike Bobo who was the offensive coordinator at Georgia for the last eight years.  While Bobo inherited 15 total returning starters, the Rams lost their starting quarterback and running back plus their top two tacklers from last year’s 10-3 team.  The Rams have serious issues at quarterback; Nick Stevens has completed just 59.6% of his passes with a 9/4 touchdown/interception ratio.  Bobo has Stevens starting simply because the Rams don’t have much behind him.  Colorado State is in a bad situational spot for this game as they come into this game off three consecutive emotional games.  They lost back-to-back overtime games to Minnesota and Colorado, and then last week they won 33-31 at UTSA.  This will also be their third straight game away from home while facing the best defense they’ve seen so far this season.   

Utah State comes into this game off a bye, so they’ve had an extra week to prepare.  That’s a good thing since they will be starting sophomore quarterback Kent Myers for the first time.  But the team and head coach Matt Wells have faith in Myers: “His teammates are very, very confident in him,” Wells said.  “He brings athleticism and he throws the ball well whether it’s down the field, in the pocket or on the move. I like where he’s at.”  Utah State will rely on their rushing game, and they will have success against a Colorado State defense that is allowing 166.7 rushing yards per game this season.  The Aggies’ defense will be the most dominating unit on the field.  Colorado State needs to run the ball to have success, but Utah State only gives up 107 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per rush.  Utah State holds a significant edge at the line of scrimmage, and since they come into this game in a terrific scheduling spot, we’ll lay the points with the Aggies on Saturday night.

9* Play UTAH STATE (-).

Iowa comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 record, but the Hawkeyes have faced a pretty easy schedule so far.  Iowa owns wins over FCS Illinois State, rival Iowa State 31-17, Pittsburgh, and a terrible North Texas team.  Iowa was challenged in just one game, and that came in their 27-24 home win over Pittsburgh.  We won a Best Bet selection against Iowa in that game as the matchup was a bad one for the Hawkeyes.  The same applies in this game against Wisconsin, so we’ll play against Iowa once again.  Iowa and Wisconsin are built in a similar way as they both like to run the ball while playing physical defense.  But the Badgers simply do it better.  Iowa has faced four poor defenses that are allowing 30.3 points and 178.3 rushing yards per game as a group.  Now the Hawkeyes will be facing a Wisconsin defense that is only giving up 9.5 points per game and 82.7 rushing yards per game.  That’s 20.8 points per game less, and 95.6 rushing yards per game less than the defenses that Iowa has faced this season.  Iowa is taking a major step-up in class against the Badgers.  

Wisconsin comes into this game with a 3-1 record; their lone loss came against Alabama in their season opener.  The Badgers have won their last three games by a combined score of 114-3; they haven’t just been winning, they’ve been dominating.  Wisconsin has faced much tougher defensive opponents than Iowa, and the Badgers have performed better.  Wisconsin is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus opponents that only give up 5.1 yards per play.  The Badgers will have success moving the ball on an Iowa defense that has faced four terrible offensive teams that average just 21.6 points per game on 5.0 yards per play combined.  Overall, Wisconsin is averaging 32.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  My power ratings make Wisconsin a 12-point favorite in this game, so there’s tremendous value in laying less than a touchdown with the Badgers on Saturday afternoon.            

9* Play WISCONSIN (-).

Denver comes into this game with a 2-0 SU record, but the Broncos could actually be 0-2 on the season.  Denver beat Baltimore 19-13 in their season opener at home despite trailing by an average of 1.9 points per minute in that game.  Then last Thursday night, Denver won 31-24 in Kansas City in a miraculous finish.  The Broncos scored the game-tying touchdown with less than a minute to play, and then they returned a fumble for a touchdown when the Chiefs were simply trying to run out the clock.  Denver had a +4 in turnover margin in that game yet they barely won.  The Broncos were also 3-point road underdogs in that game, but now they are 3-point road favorites to a team that is rated equally to Kansas City.

Detroit is 0-2 SU on the season, but the Lions could very well be 1-1.  Detroit blew a 21-3 lead in San Diego in their season opener, and last week they came out flat in their second consecutive road game.  Detroit returns home a desperate football team, and in a primetime national TV game against a Super Bowl contender, we expect a peak performance by the Lions tonight.  Detroit went 7-1 SU at home last season with their lone loss coming by 3 points to the Bills in a 17-14 defensive grinder.  Tonight’s game projects to be a low-scoring game as well, so taking a field game with the home underdog is the way to go.  We’ll back Detroit in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play LIONS (+).

The Colts are off to a 0-2 SU/ATS start this season and that will ensure a very focused and motivated effort today.  The Colts Monday night loss was largely due to turnovers as they had a 5-1 turnover deficit versus the Jets, including losing a fumble on the 1-yard line that would have made the score 10-7.  That game was much closer than the 20-7 final score indicated as the Colts were only outgained by 1 total yard (343-344) and actually held a 5.6 to 5.5 yards per play advantage.  Despite that loss, QB Andrew Luck is still an incredible 14-2 SU after a defeat, so he should respond with a solid effort today.  Indianapolis has played better than their 0-2 SU/ATS record indicates as they also had a 3-0 turnover deficit at Buffalo in Week 1.  That means the Colts are now -7 in turnovers after just two games and this number is likely to revert back to the norm in future weeks.  Andrew Luck does throw more interceptions than most quarterbacks, but keep in mind this is because the Colts run more passing plays than most teams.  In fact, Luck's career interception % is actually lower than several famous quarterbacks such as Montana, Aikman, Manning, etc.

The Titans have played two weak opponents this season against Tampa Bay and Cleveland, so Tennessee is now taking a substantial step up in class versus the Indianapolis.  Rookie QB Marcus Mariota has looked good, but he is still a rookie and the Colts now have two full weeks of game film on him to develop a better gameplan and plan of attack.  Tennessee's defense is still suspect after playing two weak opponents and they lost 28-14 to backup QB Johnny Manziel last week who averaged an incredible 11.5 yards per pass with a 133.9 QB rating.  He averaged an awful 5.0 ypp with a 42.0 QB rating in his five games last year.  Indianapolis' should have a big bounce back game today, especially since the Colts have dominated Tennessee in this series, going a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS in the past seven meetings, including easy 41-17 and 27-10 wins last season.

9* Play COLTS (-).

Cincinnati comes into this game with a 2-0 SU record after crushing the Raiders in Oakland 33-13 and beating San Diego 24-19 at home last week.  The win in Oakland is nothing special, and last week the Bengals caught the Chargers in a bad scheduling and situational spot.  San Diego was off a big come from behind home win and playing across the country in an early start game.  Cincinnati now finds themselves in a bad spot as they will play a desperate divisional rival on the road.  The Bengals have beaten the Ravens in three straight meetings, so that means they could come into this game overconfident.  Despite Cincinnati’s offense looking good with 57 points scored, they’ve actually underperformed on the field.  The Bengals are averaging 28.5 points per game against defenses that allow 29.5 points per game.  They are averaging 6.2 yards per play against defenses that give up 6.5 yards per play.

Baltimore comes into this game with a 0-2 SU record, but the Ravens could actually be 2-0 on the season.  They lost a close 19-13 game in Denver in their season opener, and last week they blew a late lead in Oakland and lost 37-33.  The Ravens return home for a game they must win, and we expect them to bring their best effort.  Baltimore is 12-4 SU at home over the last two seasons with their average win coming by +12.9 points per game.  The Ravens are a perfect 5-0 at home when playing off a road loss in their previous game with their average win coming by +10.2 points per game in that situation.  The setup for a prime Baltimore performance couldn’t be any better, especially since they’ll be facing a familiar divisional opponent that is fat and happy right now.  This is a great spot for Baltimore to get a bounce back win, so we’ll lay the short number with the Ravens on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play RAVENS (-).

Missouri has been a terrific team over the last couple of seasons.  The Tigers are 26-5 in their last 31 games, including a perfect 3-0 so far in 2015.  Missouri’s strength over the last few years has been on the defensive side of the ball; they’ve allowed 23.5 points per game or less in four of the last five seasons.  The Tigers’ defense has been phenomenal this season; they are giving up just 9.7 points per game on 217 total yards per game.  Missouri is holding their opponents to just 3.3 yards per play, so teams have had an extremely difficult time moving the football consistently on the Tigers.  Granted, their schedule has been weak thus far, but Missouri’s history of fielding a strong defense is an indication that the first three games are not a fluke.  Missouri’s offense has struggled a bit this season, but that’s because star running back Russell Hansbrough has been out with injury.  However, reports indicate he will play in this game, and his presence alone will boost Missouri’s offensive production, especially since Kentucky allows 187.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush.    

Kentucky comes into this game with a 2-1 record with their loss coming last week at home to Florida.  The Wildcats were in a good spot for that game after winning at South Carolina as 7-point road underdogs the week before.  But Kentucky played terrible football as they only had 3 points thru three quarters, and overall, they only had 241 yards of offense for the entire game.  The Wildcats’ offense has underperformed all season, and in fact, Kentucky is only averaging 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that are allowing 5.8 yards per play this season.  And it’s not like they’ve played a collection of strong defensive opponents.  As a group, Kentucky has faced defenses that are giving up 24.7 points per game.  They are taking a major step-up in class in this game against Missouri since the Tigers’ defense allows 15 points per game less than the teams Kentucky has been facing.  Missouri has dominated this series over the last three seasons, winning by a combined score of 101-37, and there’s nothing that indicates this game will be any different.  My power ratings actually make Missouri a 2.5-point favorite in this game, and since they are the better team with the better defense, we’ll back the Tigers in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play MISSOURI (+).

This game will be played on a neutral field, so neither team has the home field advantage.  The pointspread on this game has been severely inflated after the recent results over the last couple of weeks.  Back in June, the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas posted Arkansas as 6-point favorites over Texas A&M.  And after just three games, Texas A&M is now a 7-point favorite.  That’s a 13-point adjustment, and it’s simply way too much.  My raw power ratings before the season made Arkansas a 2-point favorite, and even after adjusting for in-season play, my power ratings only make Texas A&M a 1.5-point favorite.  Texas A&M comes into this game with a 3-0 record, but the Aggies have played two inferior opponents and Arizona State.  Texas A&M has played three terrible defensive teams that are giving up an average of 31.4 points and 427.9 yards per game as a group.  The Aggies are taking a big step-up in defensive class for this game as Arkansas is only allowing 21.3 points and 336 yards of offense per game this season.

Arkansas is just 1-2 on the season, and the Razorbacks come into this game off back-to-back home losses.  However, Arkansas could easily be 3-0 had the football bounced their way.  In their two losses, the Razorbacks’ offense has put up 939 yards of total offense.  Arkansas controlled the football in those two games; they held a 74:38-45:22 time of possession edge.  The Razorbacks do that by having a fantastic running game that is averaging 171 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush.  Arkansas’ defense has also been terrific this season as they are holding opponents to 13.7 points per game less than their seasonal average.  The Razorbacks’ opponents are averaging 35 points per game on offense as a group while Arkansas is only allowing 21.3 points per game as noted above.  The line on this game is super inflated, and we expect a close game throughout.  We’ll take the points with the Razorbacks in a game they have a very good shot at winning outright.

10* Play ARKANSAS (+).

BYU is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game in Michigan on Saturday afternoon.  The Cougars come into this game with a 2-1 record, but they could very well be 0-3 on the season.  BYU opened with back-to-back miraculous wins; they won at Nebraska and they beat Boise State at home on Hail Mary passes.  Last week, they played at UCLA, and the Cougars led for the majority of that game.  BYU blew a 20-10 fourth quarter lead after giving up the game-winning touchdown to UCLA with just over 3 minutes to play in the game.  The Cougars’ 24-23 loss will be extremely difficult to overcome, especially after the pair of emotional games they won to begin the season.  BYU must now travel across the country and play an early game after playing back-to-back late games on the opposite coast.  The Cougars will likely be running on empty as this game goes on. 

Michigan has bounced back strongly after opening the season with a 24-17 loss at Utah.  The Wolverines have won their two home games by a combined score of 63-14, so they come into this game full of confidence.  Michigan dominated the line of scrimmage in their two wins, and their defense played outstanding as well.  The Wolverines ran for a total of 479 yards while gaining a whopping 5.5 yards per rush.  BYU’s rush defense was gouged by UCLA last week as the Bruins ran for 296 yards while averaging an incredible 7.8 yards per rush.  Michigan will have similar success in this game, especially since the Cougars’ defense has given up 24 points or more in all three games this season.  The Wolverines’ defense has held their three opponents to a total of 38 points this season.  In their last two games, Michigan has held their opponents to a total of 373 yards of offense.  Overall this season, the Wolverines’ defense is only allowing 3.8 yards per play.  This is simply a terrible spot for BYU, and with Michigan playing excellent football right now, we’ll lay the points with the Wolverines on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play MICHIGAN (-).

Washington was in a terrific spot at home last week against the Rams.  The Redskins were catching St. Louis off their big overtime home win over Seattle, and it was simply a major flat spot for the Rams.  Washington took full advantage, and so did we by winning a Best Bet selection on the Redskins in their easy 24-10 blowout of St. Louis.  However, Washington is now in a poor scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in New York.  The Redskins are playing on a short week with this being their first game on the road; they also hosted Miami in Week 1.  Washington was a 4-point home underdog to the Dolphins, and they were 3.5-point home underdogs to the Rams last week.  Now they are only 3-point road underdogs on the road.  Clearly, the oddsmakers have overreacted to last week’s results, especially since the Giants come into this game winless on the season.

New York is 0-2 SU on the season, but the Giants could actually be 2-0.  They mismanaged the clock in their 27-26 loss in Dallas in their season opener, and last week they blew a 20-10 fourth quarter lead at home to the Falcons.  Atlanta scored the winning touchdown with just over a minute to play in that game.  Off back-to-back blown games, tonight’s game for the Giants is very important.  New York can ill-afford to drop to 0-3 SU on the season, so they will come with a supreme effort in this game, especially since they are playing a division opponent.  The Giants are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in their last four meetings against the Redskins, and quarterback Eli Manning has been spectacular against Washington.  In the two meetings last season, Manning completed 70% (51-73) of his passes for 550 yards with 7 touchdowns and 1 interception.  The Giants won those games by a combined scored of 69-27 and won the two games the year prior 44-23.  That means New York has outscored Washington 113-50 the past two years while going a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS with victory margins by 7, 14, 31, and 11 points.  New York is in a good spot to notch their first win of the season, so we’ll back the Giants on Thursday night.

10* Play GIANTS (-).

New York fired Rex Ryan a year too late, and because of that, the Jets suffered thru an embarrassing 4-12 SU campaign in 2014.  Former Arizona defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is the new head coach, and he stepped into a pretty good situation.  Bowles is a defensive guru, and with Darrelle Revis returning, the Jets’ defense is a much improved unit.  The Jets beat Cleveland 31-10 in their season opener at home, but that result was expected.  The Browns are a bad football team, so New York’s win doesn’t mean much at all.  The game was much closer than the final score indicates as the Jets only out-yarded the Browns 333-321 with an 18-15 first down advantage.  The difference in the game were the five Cleveland turnovers, including four lost fumbles, and the Browns’ inability to score inside the red zone; they were 0-2 inside the 20-yard line.  The Jets’ offense was pedestrian as QB Ryan Fitzpatrick completed just 15 passes for 179 yards.  New York is taking a monumental step-up in class against the Colts in this game, and we expect a much different outcome for the Jets tonight.

Indianapolis comes into this game off a 27-14 blowout loss in Buffalo last week.  That loss now sets the Colts up in a prime situational bounce-back spot for this home opener.  Last week's loss was not a surprise as quarterback Andrew Luck had one of his worst games last season in Cleveland when he completed just 45% (24-for-53) of his passes while throwing two interceptions.  The Browns are coached by Mike Pettine who is a disciple of the Rex Ryan defensive schemes.  Last week against Ryan’s defense, Luck once again had an awful game as he completed just 53% (26-for-49) of his passes while throwing two interceptions.  Those two bad performances by Luck shows that he struggles mightily against that particular defensive scheme.  However, a solid bounce-back performance is expected tonight as Luck has been incredible when playing off a loss in his career; he’s a fantastic 14-1 SU and ATS in the following game with the wins coming by an average of +11.6 points per game.  The Colts are simply the better team, and in a terrific bounce back spot, we’ll lay the points with Indianapolis at home on Monday night.

10* Play COLTS (-).

St. Louis is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for this game in Washington.  The Rams come in off a big win in a game they prepped for all summer.  St. Louis beat Seattle 34-31 in overtime last week.  That divisional win was an emotional one for the Rams after they tied the game with less than a minute to play to force overtime.  St. Louis now owns back-to-back home wins over the Seahawks, and their personnel simply matches-up extremely well with Seattle.  After beating the Seahawks last season, the Rams fell flat the following week when they lost 31-17 at home to San Francisco.  The Rams are now on the road and laying points in a prime letdown spot, and they are doing so against a team they shutout last season.  St. Louis beat the Redskins 24-0 in Washington last season.  That result was an embarrassing low-point for Washington, and they’ve had this game circled in red ever since.

Washington lost 17-10 at home to Miami last week, but the Redskins actually out-played the Dolphins in that game.  Washington took a 10-7 lead into the fourth quarter before losing on a 69-yard punt return touchdown.  Overall, the Redskins out-yarded the Dolphins 349-256 while holding Miami to just 74 rushing yards on 18 carries.  Washington’s defense, especially their defensive line, is very good.  St. Louis has scored 19 points or less in eight of their last eleven road games, and since they come in off a high-scoring overtime win, there’s a high probability that the Rams will have difficulty scoring in this game.  The total is posted at 41, and it is the lowest Over/Under this week along with the Texans/Panthers game.  This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive struggle, and since Washington is catching St. Louis at the perfect time, we’ll take the points with the Redskins on Sunday afternoon. 

10* Play REDSKINS (+).

Pittsburgh comes into this game with a perfect 2-0 record, but the team is getting little respect as of right now.  The Panthers were 6.5-point home favorites over Iowa last season, but they lost that game 24-20 despite out-yarding the Hawkeyes 435-311.  Now Pittsburgh will play in Iowa in the return game, and they are getting +5.5 which equates to a 12-point line move.  That’s way too much considering the two teams are quite similar to last year.  Pittsburgh is in their first year under new head coach Pat Narduzzi who was the Michigan State defensive coordinator for the past eight seasons.  Narduzzi created one of the best defenses in the country in East Lansing, and he’s very familiar with Big 10 member Iowa.  Narduzzi’s defenses have held the Hawkeyes to just 14, 19, and 21 points the last three meetings.  Pittsburgh shut down Akron last week, holding them to just 7 points, 8 first downs, and 110 total yards , so they are quite capable of holding Iowa in check in this game.

Iowa also comes into this game with a 2-0 record; the Hawkeyes beat FCS Illinois State 31-14 and rival Iowa State 31-17.  Iowa hasn’t been challenged yet, but they will be severely tested on both sides of the ball in this game against Pittsburgh.  The Hawkeyes and Panthers are built in a similar way as they both like to run the ball while playing physical defense.  When teams that fit that profile play, we often see a low-scoring defensive scrum with points at a minimum.  That was exactly the case in last year’s meeting that only had a total of 44 points scored.  The posted total on this game is currently 47, so we’re expected to see a similar outcome to last year’s game in Pittsburgh.  These two teams are even across the board, so we’ll take the points in a game that comes right down to the wire.       

9* Play PITTSBURGH (+).

This rivalry game is one that is played early in the season, and that gives Colorado a definite advantage over Colorado State for this meeting.  The Rams are a rebuilding football team while Colorado is a team on the rise.  The Rams have a new head coach in Mike Bobo who was the offensive coordinator at Georgia for the last eight years.  While Bobo inherited 15 total returning starters, the Rams lost their starting quarterback and running back plus their top two tacklers from last year’s 10-3 team.  The Rams have serious issues at quarterback as Nick Stevens completed just 42.1% (8-of-19) of his passes last week for 51 yards with two interceptions; he was benched during the game.  Bobo said Stevens will start this game simply because the Rams don’t have much behind him.  Colorado State comes into this game off a tough 23-20 home loss in overtime to Minnesota last week, and that game puts them in a negative situation for this game.

Colorado is trending up, and head coach Mike MacIntyre is in his third year in Boulder.  The Buffaloes will have their best season under MacIntyre as they returned 16 total starters.  Colorado comes into this game at 1-1 on the season; they lost 28-20 at Hawaii as 7-point favorites and they crushed Massachusetts 48-14 last week.  The Buffaloes ran for 390 yards on 6.6 yards per rush in that game, and that spells trouble for Colorado State who allowed 180 rushing yards at home to Minnesota last week.  Colorado was a 2.5-point favorite over Colorado State last season, but they lost 31-17.  The Rams were a significantly better team last season while Colorado only won 2 games all year; Colorado State only lost 3 games.  That’s not the case this season as Colorado will have a better record at season’s end, but they are only laying 0.5 points more.  This game is ultra important for Colorado’s program, and since they are the better team, we’ll lay the points with the Buffaloes on Saturday night.

10* Play COLORADO (-).

Auburn comes into this game at 2-0 SU, but they are 0-2 ATS.  That is a major red flag considering Auburn’s two opponents thus far, Louisville and Jacksonville State, are a combined 1-4 on the season.  Auburn played a neutral site game against Louisville, and at home versus Jacksonville State; they were not impressive in either game.  The Tigers could have lost both of those games; they only beat Louisville 31-24 and they needed overtime to beat FCS Jacksonville State 27-20.  Now Auburn must play a true road game for the first time this season with a quarterback that has been awful in the first two games.  Jeremy Johnson has completed just 60.4% (32-53) of his passes for 373 yards with a 3/5 touchdown/interception ratio.  Johnson will be making his first collegiate true road start, and he will be facing a much better defense than what he has seen in the first two games.  LSU is an extremely difficult place to play, especially for a relatively young and inexperienced quarterback like Johnson.

LSU has had this game circled after getting embarrassed 41-7 at Auburn last season.  We remember that game well as we won a Best Bet selection on Auburn as 7.5-point favorites.  That game set-up perfectly for Auburn, but this game is just the opposite, as LSU is now the team in a good situational spot.  The Tigers won 21-19 at Mississippi State in their season opener last week.  The 2-point win makes the game look closer than it actually was; LSU led 21-6 heading into the fourth quarter.  LSU dominated that game at the line of scrimmage as they ran for 266 yards on 5.7 yards per rush while holding Mississippi State to just 43 yards on the ground while limiting them to just 1.7 yards per rush.  If LSU repeats that type of domination in this game, Auburn has zero chance of staying competitive.  LSU returned a loaded team this season, and the Tigers are flying well under the national radar.  With this game being their only SEC home game until October 17th, we expect a supreme effort by LSU.  We’ll lay the points with LSU in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play LSU (-).

Clemson has been a terrific team over the last four seasons.  The Tigers won 10 games or more in all four years, and they are expected to finish this season with a similar record.  While the Tigers are an extremely talented team, they are young and inexperienced, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Clemson only returned 3 starters on defense this season from last year’s unit that gave up just 16.7 points and 261 yards per game.  The Tigers are 2-0 coming into this game after beating up on Wofford and Appalachian State by a combined score of 90-20.  Both of those teams are inferior opponents, and Clemson played both games at home, so those results mean absolutely nothing.  Tonight’s game at Louisville is their first test of the season, and Clemson is simply overvalued in this game because of recent results.

Louisville comes into this game with an 0-2 record after losing to Auburn and Houston.  Both of those opponents are good teams, and Louisville actually could have won both games if the football bounced a different way.  The Cardinals have obviously played the much tougher competition so far this season, and they are already playing at mid-season game speed.  Clemson is not after playing a pair of weaklings, so Louisville has a significant edge for this game.  In last year’s meeting at Clemson, the Tigers only won 23-17 as 9.5-point home favorites.  Clemson was a better team last season, and now they are laying just 3.5 points less on the road against Louisville.  The Cardinals went 5-1 at home last season in head coach Bobby Petrino’s first season back; their only loss was to Florida State.  Louisville is severely undervalued in this game, so we’ll take the points with the Cardinals on Thursday night. 

10* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Baltimore returned to the playoffs despite 2014 being a year of adversity for the franchise.  First came the Ray Rice fiasco off the field, and then the injury bug swept thru the team, especially the defensive secondary.  Baltimore’s offense was the best in franchise history last season, but offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak left for the head job in Denver.  In steps Marc Trestman who flopped in Chicago, and his offensive schemes are totally different which means it will take time for the Ravens to be a consistent unit.  The Baltimore secondary is the unit that needs major fixing, and there’s a very good chance they get exploited in this game, especially if the Ravens fail to stop the dangerous running game of the Broncos.

Denver will begin the new season with a new head coach as former Baltimore offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak, takes over.  Kubiak is quite familiar with the Broncos as he called plays in Denver for 11 seasons (1995-2005).  Denver’s offense shouldn’t skip a beat, and their rushing offense will be one of the best in the league, especially since they’ll be utilizing Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme.  The running game will be ultra important because it will open up many big passing plays downfield for quarterback Peyton Manning.  Denver did not have that luxury last season, so defenses were able to play against the pass and make the Broncos a dink and dunk offense.  The Broncos’ defense shaved 3 points per game in 2014, and that unit should improve once again.  Denver has all of the advantages in this game, so we’ll lay the points with the Broncos on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play BRONCOS (-).

Detroit had a phony winning season in 2014.  The Lions went 11-5 and lost a playoff game in Dallas.  Detroit regressed sharply on offense last season as they averaged 5 points per game less than they did in 2013.  Overall, the Lions scored just 20 points per game, and they actually scored less than their seasonal average in seven games.  Detroit’s offense was woeful on the road where they averaged just 16.1 points per game.  Five of the Lions’ wins last season came by 7 points or less, including three wins by 2 points or less.  Detroit’s defense was ranked #1 for the majority of last season as they only allowed 18 points per game.  However, the defense was much worse on the road where they gave up 21 points or more five times.  Detroit also lost their best defensive player, Ndamukong Suh, to the Dolphins, and that makes their stop unit much weaker coming into this season.

San Diego went 9-7 in 2014 for the second consecutive season, but last year did not result in a playoff appearance.  It was an impressive season for the Chargers considering the amount of injuries they had to deal with.  The Chargers’ offense was horrible down the stretch; they scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games, all losses.  But again, injuries were the culprit.  San Diego’s window to win is now, and that starts in their season opener at home.  San Diego’s offense will be much more consistent as long as they stay healthy.  The Chargers’ defense will be the best they’ve had in quite some time.  They’ve been terrific throughout camp and in their preseason games, and the players have a lot of confidence coming into this season.  “I feel like we have a special unit,” Melvin Ingram said.  “Let the results speak for themselves.”  San Diego is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Chargers in this game on Sunday afternoon.   

9* Play CHARGERS (-).

UCLA was ultra-impressive in their 34-16 home win over Virginia last week.  While the final winning margin of 18 points doesn’t look so good, the Bruins dominated that game from start to finish.  UCLA out-yarded Virginia 503-336 despite having the ball for 9 minutes less.  The most impressive part of that game was how UCLA controlled the line of scrimmage against one of the better defensive lines in the country.  The Bruins tallied 152 yards on the ground while averaging 4.5 yards per rush against a Virginia defense that only gave up 121 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per rush last season.  The ability to run the ball opened up the passing game for true freshman quarterback Josh Rosen who completed 80% (28-35) of his passes for 351 yards with 3 touchdowns and zero interceptions.  While it’s true Rosen will be making his first collegiate road start, the game will come at UNLV who has a terrible team and absolutely no home field edge whatsoever.

UNLV comes into this game off a close 38-30 loss at Northern Illinois in their season opener.  The Rebels actually trailed that game by 15 points with 5 minutes left to play, and they gave up 545 yards of total offense.  That was against a mediocre team from the MAC, and now they are taking a monumental step-up in class against UCLA in this game.  UNLV is in serious rebuilding mode with new head coach Tony Sanchez and just 10 returning starters this season.  The Rebels had no less than 13 returning starters in each of the last three seasons, and they went just 11-28 over that span.  UNLV is void of major talent right now, and they are totally out-classed in this game versus UCLA.  The Rebels faced Arizona from the Pac 12 twice in the last two years, and they lost both games by the exact same final score of 58-13.  UCLA is significantly better this season than those two Arizona teams, and UNLV is significantly worse than the teams they fielded in those games.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with UCLA on Saturday night.

10* Play UCLA (-).

Temple comes into this game off a solid 27-10 home win over Penn State last week.  The Owls were 7-point home underdogs in that game, and there was nothing fluky about their win.  Temple out-yarded Penn State 317-179 while controlling the ball for 36 minutes.  The Owls have an exceptional defensive team that returned 10 starters from last season when they held opponents to just 17.5 on 347 yards per game.  Overall, Temple returned 19 players from last year’s 6-6 team.  The Owls are the most experienced team in the AAC, and they are in their third season under head coach Matt Rhule.  Temple plays ball control offense, but quarterback PJ Walker has a lot of mobility which will be a key factor in this game.  Cincinnati’s defensive weakness is on the line of scrimmage, so Temple’s ability to run the ball with their backs and quarterback gives them a big matchup edge in this game.    

Cincinnati waxed Alabama A&M 52-10 last week, but that win means absolutely nothing.  The Bearcats will be stepping way up in class for this game, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Cincinnati does have a fantastic offense led by quarterback Gunner Kiel, but that unit struggled mightily against Temple’s defense last season.  The Bearcats only scored 14 points on 255 yards of total offense.  Cincinnati only ran the ball for 81 yards on 33 carries while averaging just 2.5 yards per rush.  As mentioned above, the Cincinnati defense is the liability in this game, especially their defensive line.  The Bearcats lost four of their top five tacklers from last year’s unit, so Temple will have a huge edge in the trenches.  Temple and Cincinnati are the top two teams in the AAC, and we expect a close game throughout just like last season.  We’ll take the points with the Owls in this game on Saturday night. 

9* Play TEMPLE (+).

Oregon State is in a massive rebuilding year in 2015.  The Beavers have a new head coach in Gary Andersen who was at Wisconsin that past two seasons and at Utah State the previous four seasons.  Andersen is a good coach and he made a shrewd hire in defensive coordinator Kalani Sitake from Utah.  However, the Beavers are implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball, and there’s only ten returning players with experience.  Oregon State beat FCS Weber State 26-7 at home last week, but it was just a 13-7 game in the third quarter.  True freshman quarterback Seth Collins played terrible as he completed just 10 of his 18 passes for 92 yards.  Now he’ll be making his first collegiate road start while stepping way up in competition against a terrific Michigan defense.  Collins and the Oregon State offense will have an extremely difficult time moving the football in this game.  While things look bright in the future for Oregon State, the team will suffer thru a tough 2015 starting in this game on Saturday.

Michigan was up against it last week in their season opener.  The Wolverines had to play on the road in the thin air and altitude of Utah, and they were also playing a stout defensive team.  Michigan did not play bad at all considering the circumstances, and in fact, the Wolverines out-gained Utah 355-337 despite losing 24-17.  Michigan returns home for this game, and they are in a fantastic situational spot for a big win.  New head coach Jim Harbaugh knows how big of a game this is, and Michigan gets the perfect opponent to beat by a big number.  The Wolverines’ offense is led by senior quarterback Jake Rudock who started 25 games at Iowa.  Rudock threw three interceptions last week, but that was a rare thing since he only had 18 total turnovers in his previous 25 starts.  Michigan’s offense will play significantly better in this game as they are taking a monumental step down in class, going from the stout Utah defense to an Oregon State defense that only has 2 returning starters from last season.  We’ll lay the points with Michigan in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play MICHIGAN (-).

Washington will begin a 3-game series in Miami on Friday night.  The Nationals will start Gio Gonzalez who is 4-4 with a terrible 4.81 ERA and an ugly 1.54 WHIP in his 14 road starts for Washington this season.  Gonzalez lost to the Marlins in Miami back on April 26th after giving up 6 earned runs on 10 hits in just 5 innings of work.  Dee Gordon (3-6) and Ichiro (13-36) have had the most success versus the southpaw.  The Marlins are hitting .276 while averaging 4.3 runs per game against left-handed starters this season which are their best offensive subsets overall.  Miami is also in excellent current form as they are 7-2 SU while hitting .300 as a team in their past nine games overall.

Miami will start Jarred Cosart who owns a terrific 1.90 ERA and an excellent 0.97 WHIP in his four home starts this season.  Cosart has given up just 5 earned runs on 15 hits in 23.2 innings pitched in those games.  Washington is just 30-39 SU on the road this season, and the Nationals are coming off a demoralizing sweep at home versus the Mets.  Michael Taylor, Yunel Escobar and Ryan Zimmerman all missed the last game for Washington, and they are not healthy even if they play tonight.  The Marlins’ bullpen owns a solid 3.33 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP at home where they have converted 15 of 21 save opportunities this season.  Meanwhile, Washington's bullpen has been weak on the road with a 5-14 W/L record and 4.07 ERA.  Miami is 4-2 versus Washington in their last six meetings at home and the Marlins present solid value in this game on Friday night.

9* Play MARLINS (+1.5 runline).

Pittsburgh will host Milwaukee on Friday night.  The Pirates will start Charlie Morton who comes into this game in poor current form.  Morton has lost his last three starts after allowing 12 runs and 18 hits to the Cardinals, Rockies and Marlins.  Morton is just 3-7 with a weak 4.27 ERA and a terrible 1.41 WHIP in his 13 career starts against Milwaukee.  In his last start against the Brewers this season, Morton gave up 4 runs on 5 hits in 6 innings of work.  Morton has had issues with the entire Milwaukee lineup with Ryan Braun (8-23, 1 HR 6 RBI) doing the most damage.  The Brewers are in excellent current form, going 8-3 SU in their last eleven games while scoring 64 total runs (5.8 runs per game).

Milwaukee will start Jimmy Nelson who is 4-1 with a terrific 2.01 ERA and an excellent 0.96 WHIP in his five career starts against Pittsburgh.  Pedro Alvarez (0-10), Josh Harrison (1-9), Jung Ho Kang (1-9), Starling Marte (3-13), Jordy Mercer (1-7) and Gregory Polanco (3-12) have all struggled against the right-hander.  Pittsburgh has been especially weak when facing divisional opponents this season, going just 25-35 SU, compared to 58-21 in all other games.  The Brewers are now 10-6 SU versus Pittsburgh this year, including last night’s 6-4 underdog win.  Milwaukee presents solid value in this game on Friday night.

10* Play BREWERS (+1.5 runline).