-Houston had a bye at the worst possible time; expect that break to have a negative impact 
-offense is averaging 6.5 points per game less on the road (23) than at home (29.5) 
-Texans defense is giving up 24.5 points per game vs. offenses that only average 22.9 ppg 

-Seattle is playing terrific football right now; they are on a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS run
-offense is averaging 29 points per game on 5.8 yards per play at home this season
-Seahawks defense is holding opponents to just 15.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play

10* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

-Carolina comes into this game off back-to-back losses; expect strong bounce back effort
-offense has played much better on the road where they are averaging 5.6 yards per play     
-Panthers defense is giving up just 18.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play on the road    

-Tampa Bay has lost three straight games and four of their last five games overall 
-offense must pass the ball to have success, but Carolina only allows 6.1 yards per pass attempt  
-Buccaneers defense is giving up 25.2 points per game on 6.2 yards per play this season 

9* Play PANTHERS (+).

-Los Angeles in a bad scheduling spot; third game in four days on a back-to-back set in altitude  
-Lakers are also off three straight draining games, including last night’s 17-point blown lead    
-defense is giving up 111.4 points per game vs. offenses that only average 108.6 points per game 

-Utah returns home off back-to-back road losses; bounce back since they’ve had two days off 
-offense has played defenses that only allow 45.8% shooting from the field; big class drop here    
-Jazz defense is giving up just 96.4 points per game vs. offenses that average 105 ppg      

9* Play JAZZ (-).

-Mississippi State is off back-to-back blowout wins where they scored 80 points; regression here 

-offense has been much worse on the road where they only average 23.3 ppg 5.1 yards per play   
-Bulldogs defense is giving up 33.7 points per game on 6.5 yards per play on the road

-Texas A&M off a bye with revenge; lost 35-28 as 10.5-pt road favorites at Miss State last season
-offense is averaging 32.1 points per game versus defenses that allow 27.1 points per game
-Aggies defense allowing just 19.7 points per game on a strong 5.1 yards per play at home 

9* Play TEXAS A&M (+).

-Utah is 0-3 SU over their last three games while getting out-scored 81-57 in those games 
-offense is only averaging 25.3 points per game on the road; two away wins came by 12 points  
-defense is giving up 145.7 rushing yards on the road; Ducks average 244.7 yards on the ground 

-Oregon returns home off back-to-back ugly offensive games; strong bounce back here

-offense is averaging 43.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play at home this season 
-Ducks defense is only giving up 5.0 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.5 yards per play 

9* Play OREGON (+).

-Vanderbilt has lost their last four games by an average of 31.5 points per game
-offense is only averaging 22.4 points per game on 5.1 yards per play this season 
-Commodores defense is giving up 33.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play on the road

-South Carolina returns home off a bye for homecoming; expect a strong performance here

-passing offense is averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt, and 6.0 yards per play overall at home
-defense has allowed just 19.3 points per game versus offenses that average 28.6 points per game  

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (-).

-Penn State is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot after their big home win over Michigan
-offense has been much worse on the road where they only average 26 ppg on 5.4 yards per play   
-Nittany Lions defense has faced bad offenses that only average 24.2 ppg on 5.1 yards per play

-Ohio State off a bye with revenge; lost 24-21 as 19-pt road favorites at Penn State last season

-offense is averaging 7.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.7 yards per play
-Buckeyes defense is allowing just 15.4 points per game on 4.5 yards per play this season 

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

-LA’s Yu Darvish is slated to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.83 ERA and 1.24 WHIP 

-righty projects to have an 8.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.4 strikeout/walk ratio 

-Astros have hit just .197 (31-157) with a terrible .557 OPS against Darvish in his career

-Houston’s Lance McCullers projects to give up 2.2 earned runs with a 3.79 ERA and 1.23 WHIP 

-righty in poor current form; 5.27 ERA after giving up 8 earned runs on 12 hits in his last 3 starts    

-Dodgers have hit .450 with a strong .979 OPS against McCullers in his career

9* Play DODGERS (+1.5 runline).

-Oklahoma City’s lone home loss came by 2 points to Minnesota; quick turnaround revenge spot
-offense is averaging 104.8 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field 
-Thunder defense allows just 97.7 points per game vs. offenses that average 101.5 ppg  

-Minnesota comes into this game in bad current form; back-to-back losses by 23 and 21 points   
-offense shot 50% from the field and 40% from three and only beat Oklahoma City by 2 points  
-Timberwolves defense is giving up 113.8 points per game vs. offenses that average 104.5 ppg

10* Play THUNDER (-).

-Dallas got their first win of the season last night in their 103-94 home win over Memphis  
-offense has been terrible on the road where they are averaging 91 ppg on 36.9% shooting    
-Mavericks defense is giving up 108.8 points per game vs. offenses that average 105.1 ppg

-Memphis comes home off an ugly road loss in Dallas last night; quick turnaround revenge spot
-offense is averaging 107 points per game at home this season; both home wins by double digits    
-Grizzlies defense allows just 96.2 points per game vs. offenses that average 107.7 ppg     

10* Play GRIZZLIES (-).

-Utah off a 102-84 loss in Los Angeles last night; bounce back, especially on offense 
-offense has played tough defenses so far, but they have shot 47.8% from the field    
-Jazz defense is giving up just 96.2 points per game vs. offenses that average 104.7 ppg      

-Phoenix is just 1-3 SU on the season, and they are off a 117-115 win over Sacramento  
-offense shot 54.5% (42-77) and hit 85.2% (23-27) from the line in that game; expect regression   
-Suns defense is giving up 125.2 points per game vs. offenses that only average 108.7 ppg 

10* Play JAZZ (-).

-New Orleans will play their fourth game of the season, and this will be their third road game 
-offense scored 119 points on 56.6% (47-83) shooting from the field in their last game   
-Pelicans defense is giving up 114.3 points per game on 48% shooting from the field 

-Portland comes home off a road loss, and with this being their home opener, expect strong effort  
-offense is averaging 116 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 48.6% from 3     
-defense allows 95 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from 3     

9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-).

-Washington lost 30-17 at home to Washington in Week 1; just a 2-pt game with 2 minutes left
-offense is averaging 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.9 yards per play  
-Redskins defense is giving up just 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.9 yppl   

-Philadelphia is 5-1 on the season, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule so far
-offense runs first to open up passing game; Redskins allow just 87 rushing yards per game  
-Eagles defense is giving up 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that also average 5.7 yppl

10* Play REDSKINS (+).

-Cincinnati comes into this game off their bye fresh and ready for a divisional opponent 
-offense has been strong on the road where they are averaging 27.5 ppg on 5.6 yards per play
-Bengals defense is excellent, giving up just 16.6 points per game on 4.4 yards per play 

-Pittsburgh returns home after handing the Chiefs their first loss of the season; letdown here
-offense is only averaging 17.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play at home this season  
-Steelers defense has faced a group of mediocre offenses that only average 21.3 ppg on 5.4 yppl  

10* Play BENGALS (+).

-New York hits the road after a 24-17 home loss to New England; expect bounce back effort
-already beat the Dolphins 20-6 this season after out-yarding them by 111 yards (336-225)    
-Jets defense is giving up just 21.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play this season    

-Miami returns home off their big upset win at Atlanta as 14-point road underdogs; letdown spot
-offense is below average; averaging just 12.2 points per game vs. defenses that allow 23.2 ppg  
-Dolphins averaging just 4.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.5 yards per play

9* Play JETS (+).

-Tennessee off high-scoring home win on Monday night vs. division rival; letdown here
-offense is only averaging 20.3 points per game on 5.0 yards per play on the road
-Titans defense is giving up 27.3 points per game versus offenses that only average 21.9 ppg  

-Cleveland is winless on the season, but returning home, expect a strong performance here  
-offense has played strong defenses that only give up 5.3 yards per play; step-down vs. Titans
-Browns defense good at home where they give up 23 points per game on 5.3 yards per play 

9* Play BROWNS (+).

-Wyoming has played an easy schedule for a 4-2 record; lost 49-13 to Oregon and 24-3 at Iowa 

-offense is below average; 24 ppg on 4.8 yppl versus defenses that allow 28.9 ppg on 5.9 yppl  
-Cowboys defense has faced offenses that average 21.2 points per game on 4.8 yards per play 

-Boise State has this game circled after losing as 14.5-point favorites at Wyoming last season
-offense is averaging 29 points per game versus defenses that only give up 22.5 points per game
-Broncos defense is allowing just 22.8 points per game on a strong 4.6 yards per play 

10* Play BOISE STATE (-).

-Orlando off a 126-121 road loss in Brooklyn last night; bounce back, especially on defense  
-offense has been terrific so far; 118.5 ppg, 49.2% shooting from the field, and 48.1% from 3    
-Magic have an extremely deep rotation; 9 guys have played double digit minutes in each game    

-Cleveland will be playing their third game in five days with a travel spot in between 
-offense scored 116 points on 54.3% shooting from the field last night; expect regression tonight    
-Cavaliers defense has given up 19 made three’s in their two games; bad matchup tonight  

9* Play MAGIC (+).

-USC has played 5 of their 7 games at home this season; toughest road game to date

-offense has been much worse on the road where they are only averaging 5.1 yards per play   
-Trojans defense has faced bad offenses that only average 5.7 yards per play; big step-up here 

-Notre Dame hell bent on revenge after getting embarrassed 45-27 at USC last season
-offense averaging 40 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.3 yppl
-Irish defense allowing just 16.8 points per game on a stout 4.8 yards per play 

9* Play NOTRE DAME (-).

-Oregon has played two straight poor games against strong defenses; strong bounce back here

-offense is averaging 37.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play; now face a terrible defense  
-Ducks defense is only giving up 4.9 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.4 yards per play 

-UCLA is just 1-3 SU over their last four games, losing those games by an average of 14.7 ppg 
-offense has faced defenses that give up 28.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play  
-Bruins defense is giving up 40.5 points on a whopping 6.7 yards per play this season  

9* Play OREGON (+).

-Louisville is on a 2-game losing streak, and they are stepping way up in defensive class 

-offense has faced opponents that allow 29 points per game on 5.9 yards per play   
-Cardinals defense is giving up 34 points per game on 6.0 yards per play on the road

-Florida State playing with revenge after losing 63-20 as road favorites in Louisville last season

-offense is averaging 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 4.8 yards per play
-Seminoles defense is allowing just 20.8 points per game on 4.9 yards per play 

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

-Atlanta will play their second consecutive road game to open up the season 
-offense scored 117 points on 51.1% shooting from the field and 50% shooting from 3-point land    
-Hawks shooting will regress off that performance, especially against a better defensive team

-Charlotte returns home off a 102-90 road loss in Detroit on Wednesday; expect strong effort  
-offense will play better after shooting just 39.7% from the field and 30% from 3-point land     
-Hornets held the Pistons to just 42.7% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three     

9* Play HORNETS (-).

-Houston off big win in Golden State last night, so expect momentum to carry over tonight  
-offense will be one of the best in the league this season, and Kings defense is terrible
-Rockets beat Sacramento by an average of 19 points per game in four meetings last season

-Sacramento will play their season opener tonight, but it’s a disadvantage versus Houston
-team has many new faces, and two key injuries to guys projected to play a lot of minutes 
-Kings defense gave up an average of 122.3 points per game to the Rockets last season  

9* Play ROCKETS (-).

-Milwaukee will play their season opener tonight; disadvantage since Boston played last night 
-offense does not matchup well at all against the Celtics defense  
-Bucks 3-point defense was atrocious last season, and small-ball Boston shoots a lot of threes

-Boston returns home off 3-point loss in Cleveland; expect emotional effort after Hayward injury
-back-to-back set will have little impact since Boston has a deep 8-man rotation    
-defense held Cavs to just 45.8% shooting from the field and 22.7% shooting from 3-point land      

9* Play CELTICS (-).

-New York is only scoring 16.4 points per game versus defenses that give up 22 ppg  
-offense is averaging 5.4 yards per play, but they’ve played defenses that give up 5.7 yppl
-Giants defense has been poor on the road, giving up 23.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play

-Denver returns off a bye, so expect a fresh and healthy team; big edge vs. injury riddled Giants
-offense is averaging 24.5 points per game versus defenses that give up 21.5 points per game 
-Broncos defense is holding opponents to just 18.5 points per game on 4.6 yards per play 

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

-Chicago’s Jon Lester is slated to give up 2.2 earned runs with a 3.63 ERA and 1.26 WHIP 

-lefty projects to have an 8.3 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.7 strikeout/walk ratio 

-Dodgers have hit just .218 (36-165) with a mediocre .659 OPS against Lester in his career

-LA starter Rich Hill projects to give up 2.0 earned runs with a 3.59 ERA and 1.28 WHIP 

-lefty is just 7-5 at home and 8-5 in night games; gave up 118 hits in 180 innings combined  

-Cubs are averaging 5.4 runs per game versus left-handed starters this season

9* Play CUBS (+1.5 runline).

-Pittsburgh is off an ugly 30-9 home loss to Jacksonville, so expect a strong performance here  
-offense has played strong defenses that only give up 5.3 yards per play; Chiefs allow 6.0 yppl
-Steelers defense is excellent, giving up just 17.8 points per game on 4.8 yards per play 

-Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS, but off high-scoring game on Sunday night, letdown here
-offense has faced a group of terrible defenses that allow 6.0 yards per play; stepping up in class 
-Chiefs defense is giving up 6.0 yards per play overall, and 6.5 yards per play at home 

9* Play STEELERS (+).

-Tampa Bay is just 2-2 on the season despite playing a weak schedule with three home games 
-offense is below average while averaging just 21.2 points per game vs. defenses that allow 24.1  
-Buccaneers defense gave up 34 points on a whopping 7.1 yards per play in their lone road game

-Arizona returns home off an embarrassing 34-7 loss in Philadelphia; expect bounce back effort
-offense averages 289.2 passing yards per game; Bucs give up 309 pypg on 7.4 yards per attempt    
-Cardinals defense is giving up just 21.5 points per game on 4.8 yards per play at home    

9* Play CARDINALS (+).

-Michigan State off their big rivalry win at Michigan as 13-point underdogs; natural letdown spot 

-offense is below average; 22.4 ppg on 5.4 yppl versus defenses that allow 23 ppg on 5.4 yppl  
-Spartans defense gave up 284 rushing yards to Notre Dame and Michigan  

-Minnesota off back-to-back losses, and returning home, expect a peak performance here
-offense has a powerful rushing attack that averages 190 yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush
-Golden Gophers defense allowing just 17.2 points per game on a strong 5.0 yards per play 

9* Play MINNESOTA (+).

-Auburn has scored 144 total points in their last three games against terrible teams and defenses
-the Tigers were 3.5-point home underdogs vs. LSU last season now 7.5-point road favorites 
-only road game against a competent defense resulted in a 14-6 loss at Clemson 

-LSU returns home off a 17-16 win at Florida; strong effort after losing their last home game 

-offense is averaging 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.5 yards per play
-Tigers defense is giving up just 18.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play 

9* Play LSU (+).

-South Alabama is 1-4 on the season with three of their four losses coming by 18 points or more

-offense averages just 23.6 points per game versus defense that give up 31.6 points per game   

-Jaguars defense is giving up 40.5 points per game on 7.4 yards per play on the road 

-Troy has won four straight games after losing their season opener 24-13 at Boise State  

-offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.8 yards per play 

-Trojans defense is excellent; allow just 12 points per game on 3.9 yards per play at home 

10* Play TROY (-).

-Kansas City is 4-0 SU/ATS on the season, but this is a bad spot after playing on Monday night  
-offense has faced defenses that give up 6.3 yards per play, so this is a big step-up in class
-Chiefs defense has given up 5.8 yards per play, so that unit has been anything but dominant

-Houston is getting a rare national TV game at home, so expect a strong effort tonight
-offense is averaging 27.5 points per game versus defenses that only give up 23.8 ppg  
-Texans defense is holding opponents to just 21.5 points per game on 4.8 yards per play at home 

9* Play TEXANS (+).

-Seattle has some good momentum after their 46-18 home win over the Colts last Sunday night 
-offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play 
-Seahawks defense is holding opponents to just 19.2 points per game on 5.4 yards per play

-Los Angeles returns home off back-to-back high-scoring road wins; natural letdown spot here 
-offense is pass heavy while averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt; Seattle gives up just 5.7 yppa 
-Rams defense is giving up 26.2 points per game on an ugly 6.0 yards per play

10* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

-Buffalo is off back-to-back SU underdog wins, and now on second straight road trip; letdown
-offense is below average; scoring just 18.9 points per game on 4.9 yards per play 
-Bills QB Taylor isn't the same on the road; just 6 of his last 22 TD passes have come on the road

-Cincinnati returning home off a big, confidence-building 31-7 win over Cleveland last Sunday  
-offense has played strong defenses that only give up 22.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play
-Bengals defense is excellent; giving up just 16.7 points per game on 4.6 yards per play 

9* Play BENGALS (-).

-Los Angeles is 0-4 on the season, but three of their four losses have come by 3, 2, and 2 points
-offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play  
-Chargers defense is stepping down in class after facing teams that average 5.7 yards per play  

-New York is also 0-4 on the season, and they’ve lost back-to-back high-scoring games 
-offense has been abysmal while averaging just 15 points per game on 5.4 yards per play 
-Giants defense is giving up 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play; bad stats for a favorite

9* Play CHARGERS (+).

-Kansas State is 3-1 on the season, but all three wins have come at home; lost 14-7 at Vanderbilt

-offense is below average; 37.5 ppg on 6.7 yppl versus defenses that allow 36.9 ppg on 6.8 yppl  
-Wildcats defense has faced offenses that average 20.7 points per game on 5.2 yards per play 

-Texas hell bent on revenge after losing 24-21 at Kansas State last season
-offense is averaging 48.5 points per game on 6.4 yards per play at home this season
-Longhorns defense allowing just 21.2 points per game on a strong 5.3 yards per play 

10* Play TEXAS (-).

-Arkansas will play their first true road game of the season against a superior defensive team
-the Razorbacks offense has faced defenses that give up 31.3 ppg; big step-up vs. South Carolina 
-defense gave up 50 points on 7.3 yards per play in their one neutral site game this season

-South Carolina returns home off a 24-17 loss at Texas A&M; expect a strong bounce back here

-passing offense averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt; Arkansas has faced all running teams
-defense has allowed just 20.8 points per game versus offenses that average 30.5 points per game  

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (+).

-West Virginia has played an extremely easy schedule, but their stats are unimpressive
-offense has faced terrible defenses that allow 40.9 points per game on 6.8 yards per play
-Mountaineers defense giving up 6.1 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 5.7 yppl

-TCU is one of the most improved teams in the country this season; 4-0 SU so far in 2017
-Horned Frogs offense is averaging a whopping 47.7 points per game on 6.6 yards per play
-defense allowing just 18.5 ppg on 5.2 yards per play; allow just 94.5 rushing yards per game   

9* Play TCU (-).

-Miami, FL is 3-0 vs. awful teams: Bethune Cookman, Toledo and Duke
-their three opponents allow 32.1 ppg on 6.4 yards per play on defense; big step-up in class now   
-Hurricanes defense has faced terrible offenses that only average 5.3 yards per play

-Florida State has won seven consecutive games against their in-state rival

-Seminoles have faced the much tougher schedule vs. teams like Alabama and NC State
-defense is allowing just 5.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 6.3 yards per play  

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (+).

-Arizona starter Taijuan Walker projects to give up 2.7 earned runs, 4.41 ERA and 1.46 WHIP 

-righty is in terrible current form; owns a 5.27 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over his last three starts 

-Dodgers have hit a respectable .295 (18-61) with a terrific .803 OPS against Walker in his career

-LA starter Clayton Kershaw slated to give up 1.8 earned runs with a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP 

-lefty projects to have a 10.8 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 4.4 strikeout/walk ratio 

-Diamondbacks have hit just .208 (40-192) with a poor .613 OPS against Kershaw in his career

10* Play DODGERS (-1.5 runline).

-New England was in a bad spot last Sunday, and that loss was not surprising; bounce back here
-offense averages 32.2 ppg on 6.5 yards per play vs. defenses that allow 19.6 ppg on 5.7 yppl 
-head coach Bill Belichick is an incredible 20-1 SU and ATS off a SU loss vs. non-division teams 

-Tampa Bay survived the Giants last week; team is loaded with injuries and stepping up in class 
-Buccaneers offense only averaging 23.7 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.9 ppg
-defense has given up 21.3 points per game vs. opponents that only average 16.7 points per game  

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

-Twins starter Ervin Santana projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a 4.82 ERA and 1.44 WHIP 

-righty has given up 60 earned runs on 120 hits in 131.2 innings of work in night games this year  

-Yankees have hit a respectable .270 (43-159) with a solid .794 OPS against Santana in his career

-Yankees starter Luis Severino slated to give up 2.1 earned runs with a 3.59 ERA and 1.19 WHIP

-righty projects to have a 10.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 4.2 strikeout/walk ratio 

-Twins have scored just 6 total runs in their last three games against New York

10* Play YANKEES (-1.5 runline).

-Washington playing their 2nd straight primetime game; beat Oakland 27-10 last Sunday night
-offense has underperformed; 6.0 yards per play versus three bad defenses that allow 6.1 yppl 
-Redskins defense gave up 7.1 yards per play in their lone road game in LA versus the Rams 

-Kansas City comes into this game at 3-0 on the season; the only unbeaten team remaining
-offense is averaging a whopping 7.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 6.5 yppl
-Chiefs defense has been good giving up 5.5 yards per play vs. offenses that average 6.1 yppl    

10* Play CHIEFS (-).

-Indianapolis is only scoring 17.7 points per game versus defenses that give up 25.2 ppg  
-offense is averaging 4.8 yards per play, but they’ve played defenses that give up 5.4 yppl
-Colts defense has been terrible giving up 30 points per game on 5.8 yards per play

-Seattle returns home off a 33-27 loss to Titans; expect strong bounce back, especially on defense
-offense is stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 5.4 yards per play 
-Seahawks defense is holding opponents to just 19.7 points per game; give up just 9 ppg at home   

9* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

-New York is 0-3 SU and desperate; much improved showing last week; expect more of the same
-offense stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 5.5 yards per play
-defense has played good while only giving up 23.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play

-Tampa Bay returning home off a shellacking at Minnesota; team is besieged with injuries 
-Buccaneers offense has played two defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play; step-up vs. Giants
-defense has given up 6.1 yards per play versus opponents that only average 5.7 yards per play 

10* Play GIANTS (+).

-San Francisco is 0-3 SU, but they’ve had extra time to prepare after last playing on a Thursday
-offense is stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 19.3 points per game 
-49ers defense is only giving up 5.1 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.4 yards per play

-Arizona playing another home game after losing on Monday night to Dallas; injury riddled team
-offense has underperformed; 18.7 points per game versus bad defenses that allow 23.9 ppg 
-Cardinals defense is giving up 25.3 points per game on 5.1 yards per play

9* Play 49ERS (+).

-Carolina has yet to play their best football, but they get a favorable matchup to do just that
-offense is stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 21.2 points per game 
-Panthers defense is excellent; holding opponents to 13.3 points per game on 4.9 yards per play 

-New England is set to regress after scoring 36 points in each of their last two wins
-QB Tom Brady will face a Carolina secondary that is only giving up 5.5 yards per pass attempt
-Patriots defense is giving up 31.7 points per game on a whopping 7.3 yards per play

9* Play PANTHERS (+).

-Mississippi stepping up in class after playing California, Tennessee-Martin and South Alabama 
-the Rebels offense only averaging 36 points per game versus defenses that give up 33 ppg
-defense allowing 184 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush; bad matchup here 

-Alabama is averaging 41.2 ppg on 6.9 yppl versus defenses that allow 24.2 ppg on 5.4 yppl    

-offense is averaging 6.5 yards per rush versus defenses that only give up 4.3 yards per rush 
-defense is outstanding; allowing just 10 points per game on 4.2 yards per play  

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

-Florida State is 0-2 on the season, and with a bye on deck, expect a peak performance

-Seminoles have faced Alabama and NC State, so taking a big step-down in class here
-defense is allowing just 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 6.4 yards per play  

-Wake Forest is 4-0 vs. awful teams: Presbyterian, Boston College, Utah St and Appalachian St
-their four opponents allow 33.8 ppg on 5.7 yards per play on defense; big step-up in class   
-defense has faced terrible offenses that only average 20.2 ppg on 5.0 yppl 

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

-Rays starter Matt Andriese projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a 4.61 ERA and 1.43 WHIP 

-righty is in terrible current form; owns an 8.25 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over his last three starts 

-Yankees have hit a solid .323 (32-99) with a terrific 1.018 OPS against Andriese in his career

-Yankees starter Luis Severino slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a 3.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP

-righty projects to have a 11.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 4.5 strikeout/walk ratio 

-Rays have hit just .239 (17-71) with an average .753 OPS against Severino in his career

10* Play YANKEES (-1.5 runline).

-Giants starter Matt Moore projects to give up 3.0 earned runs with a 4.79 ERA and 1.49 WHIP 

-lefty owns a 6.51 ERA and 1.69 WHIP on the road after giving up 54 earned runs on 93 hits 

-Diamondbacks have hit a solid .310 with a terrific .885 OPS against Moore in his career

-Arizona starter Robbie Ray is slated to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.36 ERA and 1.15 WHIP

-lefty projects to have a 10.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.7 strikeout/walk ratio 

-Diamondbacks have hit just .242 (23-95) with a weak .670 OPS against Ray in his career

10* Play DIAMONDBACKS (-1.5 runline).

-Dallas is looking to bounce back strong off their poor performance in Denver; a 42-17 loss
-offense is averaging 4.9 yards per play, but they’ve played defenses that only give up 4.8 yppl
-Cowboys defense has been good giving up 5.1 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.5 yppl  

-Arizona playing their home opener after splitting their first two games on the road
-offense has underperformed; 19.5 points per game versus two bad defenses that allow 25.5 ppg 
-Cardinals defense is terrible giving up 5.7 yards per play vs. offenses that only average 4.7 yppl    

9* Play COWBOYS (-).

-Seattle has yet to play their best football, but they get a favorable matchup to do just that
-offense is stepping down in class after facing defenses that only give up 5.4 yards per play 
-Seahawks defense is excellent; holding opponents to 13 points per game on 5.3 yards per play 

-Tennessee set to regress after beating Jacksonville by 21 points (37-16) last week
-QB Marcus Mariota has struggled mightily; 58.8% completions with just one TD pass so far
-Titans defense giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 5.6 yards per play on the season

10* Play SEAHAWKS (+).

-New York is 0-2 SU and desperate; expect a strong effort with this being a divisional game
-offense stepping down in class after facing two defenses that only give up 5.0 yards per play
-defense has played good while only giving up 21.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play

-Philadelphia returning home off a pair of road games; line is inflated after Giants recent results 
-Eagles offense has played two bad defenses that give up 6.0 yards per play; step-up vs. Giants
-defense has given up 4.9 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per play; bad stats for a favorite 

9* Play GIANTS (+).

-Denver’s first road game after a Monday night win and high-profile win over the Cowboys
-the Broncos offense will regress sharply after scoring 66 points in their first two games
-offense averaging just 5.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.1 yppl  

-Buffalo plays much better at home than on the road; they beat the Jets in their home opener
-Denver’s man defense vulnerable to dual threat quarterbacks; Taylor leads all QB’s in rushing  
-the Bills defense is giving up just 10.5 points per game on 4.1 yards per play 

9* Play BILLS (+).

-Notre Dame hell bent on revenge after losing 36-28 at home as 7.5-point favorites last season
-offense averaging 39 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.4 yppl
-defense allowing just 18.7 points per game on a stout 4.6 yards per play 

-Michigan State’s two wins this season have come against less talented MAC teams

-offense is below average; 31.5 ppg on 6.1 yppl versus defenses that allow 37.3 ppg on 6.3 yppl  
-Spartans defense has faced offenses that only average 21 points per game on 4.6 yards per play 

10* Play NOTRE DAME (-).

-Mississippi State is one of the most improved teams in the country after going 6-7 in 2016
-Bulldogs have excellent rushing attack that averages 298 yards per game on 6.5 yards per rush
-defense has only given up 28 total points on a minuscule 3.3 yards per play in their three games 

-Georgia’s lone win against a ‘real’ team came by just a single point (20-19) over Notre Dame
-offensive strength is rushing, but Mississippi State’s defense only gives up 2.6 yards per rush
-defense taking a big step-up in class after facing a group of offenses that only average 27 ppg 

9* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (+).

-TCU is one of the most improved teams in the country this season; 3-0 SU so far in 2017
-revenge game after losing 31-6 to Oklahoma State as 6.5-point home favorites last season
-defense allowing just 14.3 ppg on 4.5 yards per play; allow just 92.3 rushing yards per game   

-Oklahoma State off three straight blowout wins causing this pointspread to be inflated
-offense has faced three terrible defenses that allow 39.9 points per game on 7.8 yards per play
-Cowboys defense taking a big step-up in class against a TCU offense that averages 7.0 yppl

9* Play TCU (+).

-NC State will play their first true road game of the season against a superior team
-the Wolfpack offense has faced three bad defenses that give up 30.4 ppg; big step-up vs. FSU 
-below average stats on defense, giving up 5.6 yards per play vs. offenses that average 5.3 yppl  

-Florida State playing just their second game of the season after losing to Alabama 3 weeks ago

-offense will be led by QB James Balckman; an edge since NC State has zero film on him
-defense is loaded with 9 returning starters; best in the ACC and one of the best in the country

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

-Utah comes into this game with a 3-0 SU record, but the Utes had to travel on a short week
-the Utes offense has faced three bad defenses that give up 33.8 ppg on 5.8 yards per play 
-defense has faced three terrible offenses that only average 14.6 ppg on 4.3 yards per play 

-Arizona returns home off 47-point road win; lost their previous home game so focused spot

-offense is averaging 47 points per game on 6.5 yards per play; big step-up for Utah’s defense
-defense is only giving up 19.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play; step-up for Utah’s offense  

9* Play ARIZONA (+).

Boston will conclude their 3-game series in Baltimore against the Orioles on Wednesday night.  The Red Sox will send Chris Sale to the mound tonight.  Sale projects to have a fantastic outing against Baltimore’s lineup based on my numbers.  He is slated to give up 2.5 earned runs with a terrific 3.46 ERA and an excellent 1.03 WHIP in this game.  The lefty also projects to have an incredible 12.0 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a sterling 8.3 strikeout/walk ratio against the Orioles tonight.  The Boston starter has been fantastic away from home where he has given up just 38 earned runs on 91 hits in 118 innings of work while earning a fabulous 2.90 ERA and a tremendous 0.98 WHIP this season.  Sale has dominated Baltimore’s offense in the past.  The Orioles have hit just .213 (32-for-150) with a weak .623 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Sale during his career.

Baltimore will start Wade Miley who has a weak 5.32 ERA and 1.70 WHIP this season.  My numbers project another poor outing for Miley against Boston’s lineup.  He projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a poor 4.51 ERA and 1.49 WHIP tonight.  The lefty also projects to have a weak 6.5 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Red Sox this evening.  Miley comes into this game in terrible current form.  Over his last three starts, Miley owns a horrendous 9.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP after giving up 12 earned runs on 16 hits in just 12 innings of work.  Miley has also struggled against Boston’s offense.  The Red Sox have hit a solid .313 (36-for-115) with a terrific .869 OPS against Miley during his career.  These two teams are heading in opposite directions as the Red Sox are 10-3 in their past thirteen games, while the Orioles are 2-11.  We’ll back Boston on the run line in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play RED SOX (-1.5 runline).

-Detroit is not nearly as good as they looked by the score of their 35-23 win over Arizona
-Lions offense only had 367 yards of total offense; 4 turnovers contributed to their 35 points
-committed 10 penalties and only ran for 82 yards at home; trouble coming on the road 

-New York was in a bad spot for their opener in Dallas; a team playing with double revenge
-Giants playing at home against an overrated team presents some great value in the pointspread
-defense taking a step-down in class going from diverse Cowboys offense to predictable Lions  

10* Play GIANTS (-).

-Buffalo only beat the Jets (worst team in the league) by 9 points at home last week
-defense has 6 new starters in their defensive backfield; ranked 30th in rush D efficiency in 2016
-the Bills offense averaged 30.8 points per game at home, but just 19.1 ppg on the road in 2016 

-Carolina dominated the 49ers in San Francisco in their 23-3 win last week
-offense is more dynamic now with rookie running back Christian McCaffrey catching passes
-Panthers defense is healthy, and they’ve held 8 of their last 11 opponents to 20 points or less  

9* Play PANTHERS (-).

-Stanford off a 42-24 loss at USC; head coach David Shaw is 20-4 ATS off a SU loss 
-Cardinal offense averaging 7.1 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.8 yards per play
-defense giving up just 24.5 points per game versus offenses that average 32.3 points per game   

-San Diego State is very young; only 11 returning starters and they lost 23 seniors from last year
-defense stepping way up in class going from 22.8 points per game opponents to 43 ppg Stanford 
-offense also stepping up in class; Stanford allows 9.8 points per game less than opponents faced

9* Play STANFORD (-).

-Georgia State faced Tennessee State and lost 17-10; big step-up in class for first road game
-the Panthers offense was terrible last season while averaging just 19.9 points per game
-defense gave up 238 rushing yards on 5.7 yards per rush to a FCS team  

-Penn State most experienced team in the Big Ten with 18 returning starters; 2-0 this season

-offense averaging 42.5 points per game on 7.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 6.3 yppl  
-defense allowing just 7 points per game on a minuscule 3.4 yards per play 

10* Play PENN STATE (-).

-Oregon is one of the most improved teams in the country this season
-new head coach Willie Taggart has an experienced team with 17 returning starters back
-offense has scored a total of 119 points on a whopping 8.1 yards per play in their two games 

-Wyoming’s lone win this season has come against FCS Gardner Webb
-offense only averaging 15 points per game on 4.8 yards per play; can’t trade points with Oregon
-defense has faced offenses that average 17 points per game on 4.5 yards per play; big step-up 

9* Play OREGON (-).

-Colorado State will play their first true road game of the season against a superior team
-the Rams offense only averaging 33 points per game versus defenses that give up 29 ppg
-below average stats on offense, and now facing one of the best defenses in the country

-Alabama playing second straight home game before hitting the road for their first SEC game

-offense is averaging 5.9 yards per rush versus defenses that only give up 4.3 yards per rush 
-defense is outstanding; allowing just 8.5 points per game on 4.3 yards per play  

9* Play ALABAMA (-).

New York will begin a 3-game series in Chicago against the Cubs on Tuesday night.  The Mets will start Robert Gsellman in this game.  My numbers project a poor outing for Gsellman against Chicago’s lineup.  He projects to give up 3.0 earned runs with a terrible 4.96 ERA and an ugly 1.59 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a weak 6.5 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.8 strikeout/walk ratio against the Cubs tonight.  Gsellman has been at his worst away from home this season.  The New York starter owns a woeful 7.44 ERA and an awful 1.87 WHIP after giving up 27 earned runs on 46 hits in just 32.2 innings of work on the road.  Gsellman’s road struggles will continue in this game, especially since the Cubs are averaging 5.1 runs per game at home this season.  He is backed by a New York bullpen that has a horrible 5.47 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road this year.

Chicago will send Jose Quintana to the mound tonight.  He projects to have a fantastic outing against New York’s lineup based on my numbers.  Quintana is slated to give up 2.1 earned runs with a terrific 3.13 ERA and an excellent 1.07 WHIP in this game.  The lefty also projects to have a strong 8.4 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a solid 4.6 strikeout/walk ratio against the Mets this evening.  The Chicago starter has been at his best at home this season.  Quintana is a perfect 4-0 after giving up 15 earned runs on 23 hits in 28 innings of work while earning a fantastic 1.14 WHIP in those games.  The Mets have been at their worst against left-handed starters while averaging just 4.2 runs per game, compared to 4.7 runs per game versus right-handed starters.  We’ll back Chicago on the run line in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play CUBS (-1.5 runline).

-San Diego has played much better on the road recently; 10-6 ATS their last 16 away games
-Chargers out-rushed the Broncos in both 2016 meetings; Melvin Gordon fully healthy now

-defense will be very good this season, and they’ll limit scoring opportunities in this game

-Denver went 9-7 in 2016, but we expect a losing record at the end of the 2017 season
-Broncos possess a limited offense with Trevor Siemian at QB
-defense is in transition; released safety TJ Ward and pass rusher Derek Wolf (ankle) hobbling  

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

-New York’s offense was absolutely abysmal last season, and not much looks it will change
-Odell Beckham is battling a high ankle injury; insiders believe there’s a good chance he’s out
-Giants offensive line was atrocious in 2016, and that unit looks just as bad heading into 2017

-Dallas’ offense was terrific in 2016, and with the same personnel, expect more of the same
-Ezekiel Elliott was reinstated, so the Cowboys have their full compliment of weapons available
-of their 3 regular season losses last season, two came against the Giants; meaningful revenge

9* Play COWBOYS (-).

San Diego will conclude their 3-game series in Arizona on Sunday afternoon.  The Padres will start Luis Perdomo in this game.  My numbers project a poor outing for Perdomo against Arizona’s lineup.  He projects to give up 3.1 earned runs with a terrible 5.18 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a weak 6.3 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.7 strikeout/walk ratio against the Diamondbacks in this game.  Perdomo has been at his worst away from home this season.  The San Diego starter is just 2-5 with a poor 4.55 ERA and 1.65 WHIP after giving up 30 earned runs on 74 hits in just 59.1 innings of work on the road.  Perdomo has also struggled mightily against Arizona’s offense.  The Diamondbacks have hit a terrific .358 (24-67) with an outstanding 1.113 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Perdomo in his career. 

Arizona will send Robbie Ray to the mound today.  Ray projects to have a fantastic outing against San Diego’s lineup based on my numbers.  He is slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a solid 3.46 ERA and an excellent 1.16 WHIP in this game.  The lefty also projects to have a strong 10.5 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a solid 3.4 strikeout/walk ratio against the Padres in this game.  The Arizona starter comes into this game in tremendous current form.  Over his last three starts, Ray has given up just 2 earned runs on 9 hits in 19.1 innings of work while earning a fantastic 0.93 ERA and a sterling 0.67 WHIP in those games.  Ray has had a lot of success against San Diego’s offense in the past.  The Padres have hit just .190 (12-63) with a weak .541 OPS against Ray in his career.  We’ll back Arizona on the run line in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play DIAMONDBACKS (-1.5 runline).

-Oakland is set to regress this season after overachieving in 2016; bad stats for a 12-win team
-Raiders were +16 in turnover margin as well; another reason to expect regression
-went 5-0 in games that were decided by 3 points or less in 2016

-Tennessee’s offense improved by 5 points per game in 2016; expect more improvement in 2017
-rushing success will open up big passing plays downfield against a terrible Oakland secondary
-Eric Decker, Corey Davis, and Taywan Taylor all upgrade the Titans skill positions significantly

10* Play TITANS (-).

-Arizona set to bounce back after failing to reach 10+ wins for the first time under HC Arians
-Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu are both healthy making the Cardinals defense formidable
-expect QB Carson Palmer to attack with the pass since Detroit’s defense is undermanned

-Detroit is set to regress after making the playoffs in 2016 while getting out-scored on the year
-Lions defense is in flux; Kerry Hyder (out for season) and Ziggy Ansah (ankle) limited
-offense is not explosive so expect few points, a lot of running and short passing plays

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

-Jacksonville will be able to run the ball on Houston with bruising rookie Leonard Fournette
-the Jaguars have a solid defense that will limit the scoring opportunities of the Texans
-both meetings were close last season (1 and 3 points), and the teams are just about the same

-Houston had the 29th ranked offense last year, and with Tom Savage starting, expect similar
-Pro Bowl LT Duane Brown is holding out, so the Texans offensive line is in flux right now
-Will Fuller (collarbone) and Jaelen Strong (suspension) won’t play, reducing the depth at WR

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

Colorado has won the first two games of this series in Los Angeles, but we expect a much different outcome tonight.  Colorado will start Chad Bettis in this game.  My numbers project a poor outing for Bettis against Los Angeles’ lineup.  He projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a poor 4.90 ERA in this game.  The righty also projects to have a weak 6.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Dodgers in this game.  Bettis comes into this game in terrible current form.  Over his last three starts, Bettis has earned a horrendous 7.63 ERA after giving up 13 earned runs on 18 hits in 15.1 innings of work in those outings.  Bettis has also struggled mightily against Los Angeles’ offense.  The Dodgers have hit a solid .314 (22-70) with a terrific .843 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Bettis in his career. 

The Dodgers will send Alex Wood to the mound tonight.  Wood projects to have a fantastic outing against Colorado’s lineup based on my numbers.  He is slated to give up 2.0 earned runs with a terrific 3.02 ERA and an excellent 1.03 WHIP in this game.  The lefty also projects to have a strong 9.6 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a solid 4.5 strikeout/walk ratio against the Rockies in this game.  The Los Angeles starter has been fantastic at home where he is 8-1 after giving up just 20 earned runs on 51 hits in 65 innings of work while earning a fantastic 2.38 ERA and a sterling 1.02 WHIP in those games.  Wood has had a lot of success against Colorado’s offense in the past.  The Rockies have hit just .252 (31-123) with a weak .677 OPS against Wood in his career.  We’ll back Los Angeles on the run line in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play DODGERS (-1.5 runline).

-TCU is one of the most improved teams in the country this season
-revenge game for Horned Frogs after losing 41-38 at home in 2016 despite a 572-404 yard edge
-defense held Jackson State to just 65 total yards of offense and 1-for-13 on third downs

-Arkansas is very young; 9 true freshmen playing; 2 starting on the OL and in the secondary
-Razorbacks defense is converting from a 4-3 to a 3-4 alignment; not good against potent offense
-QB Austin Allen was under consistent pressure against a lesser opponent last week

9* Play TCU (-).

-Middle Tennessee State was terrible in their 28-6 home loss to Vanderbilt last week
-the Blue Raiders offense managed just 166 yards passing and 49 yards on the ground
-secondary gave up 296 passing yards on whopping 10.6 yards per attempt to Vanderbilt 

-Syracuse is experienced team with 19 returning starters in second year under HC Dino Babers 

-offense racked up 586 yards in their 50-6 win last week over Central Connecticut State
-QB Eric Dungey threw for 270 yards per game at home with a 10/4 TD/INT ratio in 2016

10* Play SYRACUSE (-).

-Kansas City went 12-4 SU in 2016, but their overall stats did not match up to that record

-QB Alex Smith will lose his job to rookie QB Patrick Mahomes; it’s just a matter of when

-Chiefs were +16 in turnover margin in 2016; a number which will certainly regress in 2017

-New England is the best team in the NFL, and there’s a decent gap back to second

-offense is loaded with speedy playmakers; more potent than ever, even without Julian Edleman-Patriots have gone 13-3 SU and 10-4-2 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

-Tennessee was -70.6 ypg in SEC play last season despite an overall 9-4 SU record

-Vols must replace dual threat QB Joshua Dobbs who accounted for most of their offense

-defense gave up 28.8 ppg on 449 ypg, including 219 rushing yards per game on 5.0 ypr

-Georgia Tech’s current roster is 5-1 SU against SEC teams

-excellent triple option rushing offense that averaged 258 ypg on 5.5 ypr last season

-head coach Paul Johnson is 6-2 ATS away from home as an underdog with this current roster

9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+).

Los Angeles will conclude their 4-game series in San Diego against the Padres on Sunday afternoon.  The Dodgers will send Alex Wood to the mound and he projects to have a fantastic outing against San Diego’s lineup based on my numbers.  Wood is slated to give up 2.1 earned runs with a solid 3.29 ERA and an excellent 1.13 WHIP in this game.  The lefty also projects to have a strong 9.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.6 strikeout/walk ratio against the Padres today.  The Los Angeles starter has been fantastic on the road where he is a perfect 6-0 after giving up just 13 earned runs on 43 hits in 58.1 innings of work while earning a fabulous 2.01 ERA and a sterling 0.99 WHIP in those games.  He is backed by a Los Angeles bullpen that has an excellent 2.95 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 44 saves this season.  Wood has dominated San Diego’s offense in the past.  The Padres have hit just .146 (7-for-48) with a weak .389 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Wood during his career.  San Diego has been awful at home versus left-handed pitchers this year, averaging just 2.8 runs per nine innings with a .210 batting average, compared to 4.4 runs and .234 versus RHP.

San Diego will start Jhoulys Chacin in this game.  My numbers project a poor outing for Chacin against the Los Angeles lineup.  He projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a poor 4.49 ERA in this game.  The righty also projects to have a weak 6.3 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.7 strikeout/walk ratio against the Dodgers today.  Chacin has been awful in day starts this season.  The San Diego starter owns a horrendous 5.06 ERA and 1.47 WHIP after giving up 18 earned runs on 34 hits in 32 innings of work in those outings.  Chacin has also struggled mightily against the Los Angeles offense.  The Dodgers have hit a solid .325 (52-for-160) with a terrific .888 OPS against Chacin during his career.  We’ll back Los Angeles on the run line in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play DODGERS (-1.5 run line).

This game is being played on a neutral field in Arlington, Texas.  The line has gone higher since Florida suspended ten players this week, however it is an overreaction by the oddsmakers and betting public, and this has now created additional value with the underdog Gators.  Florida went 9-4 SU last year, including an impressive 30-3 Outback Bowl win over Iowa as a 3-point favorite.  This is a deep, veteran team that still has plenty of talent, even after the recent suspensions.  Starting running back Jordan Scarlett will not play, but this means second-leading rusher Lamical Perine will get more carries.  Scarlett will be joined by WR Antonio Callaway on the sidelines, however his loss might actually boost the team's morale as insiders report he was not well liked by his teammates.  Head coach Jim McElwain announced Feleipe Franks will start under center and he has a strong arm and solid pocket presence.  The posted total is a low in this game (O/U 43) which suggests a defensive, low-scoring game and that favors the underdog, especially since Florida is 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral field games with a low total in this range.

Michigan went 10-3 SU last year, but they lost 17 of their 22 starters from that team.  The Wolverines now have just five returning starters overall with only one of those being on defense. This makes them the least experienced team in FBS football.  The offense will be breaking in several new players against a strong Florida defense that allowed just 16.8 points per game on 4.7 yards per play last year (versus opponents that averaged 28.6 ppg and 5.9 yppl).  Florida has been making solid strides under Jim McElwain who is now 29-8 SU entering his third year as head coach at the school.  The recent suspensions should motivate and focus the Gators on Saturday afternoon and has created line value with a strong defensive underdog.

9* Play FLORIDA (+).

South Carolina went 6-7 SU last year in Will Muschamp's first year with the school.  The defensive minded coach didn’t help the offense as that unit averaged just 20.8 points per game last year.  In 2016, South Carolina played six games away from home and averaged a meager 15 points per contest and just 296 yards of total offense.  The Gamecocks will have an extremely difficult time moving the ball consistently in this game against a strong defense like NC State.  We expect the Gamecocks to struggle this year, especially since they’ll be playing the fourth toughest schedule in the country amongst FBS teams.

NC State went 7-6 SU last season, and the team returns 17 starters which makes them the most experienced team in the ACC.  It all starts with an excellent defense that held opponents to just 22.8 points per game last season.  Their defensive line clamped down on the run holding opponents to just 109 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry.  NC State’s excellent defense is led by Bradley Chubb who ranks 12th in school history with 34 tackles for loss and 10th in school history with 16 sacks.  The Wolfpack is 12-4 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons, and 8-2 ATS over that span out of conference.  NC State is the superior team, and this pointspread is extremely cheap based on my power ratings.  We’ll back the Wolfpack in this game in Charlotte, NC on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play NC STATE (-).

Akron went just 5-7 SU last season, and they only return 15 starters for this season.  This is a group that failed miserably when they took a step up in competition.  The Zips lost 54-10 at Wisconsin last year and 41-3 at Oklahoma in 2015 in two recent "paycheck" games.  QB Thomas Woodson threw for just 108 yards in that loss to the Badgers.  Akron is 2-6 ATS the last three seasons in the month of September.  The Zips are just 3-6 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons.

Penn State went 11-3 SU last season, and the Nittany Lions return 18 starters from a team that made the Rose Bowl.  They are the most experienced team in the Big 10 and feature an offense that returned all but one production player.  Signal caller Trace McSorley broke school single-season passing yard and touchdown records in just his first season starting.  Saquon Barkley leads a strong rushing attack that will take advantage of an Akron defense that gave up 225 rushing yards per game (5.0 yards per carry) last season.  On defense, more than 72% of the tacklers return to a unit that gave up just 25.4 points per game last season.  Head coach James Franklin is one win away from picking up number 50 in his career, and he will be able to do so in easy fashion on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play PENN STATE (-).

Utah State went just 3-9 SU last season, and they only return 10 total starters for this season.  The Aggies’ biggest concerns come on the defensive line, and that’s a big negative for tonight’s game against Wisconsin.  Utah State lost four of their top five defensive lineman, including their best player from a year ago.  Even with an experienced group, the Aggies gave up 203 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush last season.  Things will be even worse this season, especially against tonight’s opponent.  Utah State also has a pedestrian offense that has averaged just 23.9, 29, and 26.9 points per game over the last three seasons.  In their out of conference road opener last season, the Aggies only scored 7 points in a 38-point loss at USC.  We expect a similar outcome tonight.

Wisconsin went 11-3 SU last season, and the Badgers return 15 starters from that team that won the Cotton Bowl.  Wisconsin is in their third season under head coach Paul Chryst, so we expect even more improvement this season.  The Badgers are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in home openers under Chryst, winning those two games by a combined score of 112-10.  Wisconsin has a powerful running game that will move the ball at will in this game.  Last season, the Badgers ran for 203 yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush.  Wisconsin also possess a very strong defense that has given up just 15.6 and 13.7 points per game over the last two seasons.  This game is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Badgers on Friday night. 

10* Play WISCONSIN (-).

NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways.  Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season.  It all depends on the coach’s philosophy.  Seattle head coach Pete Carroll has reverted back to his winning ways in the preseason.  The Seahawks are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this preseason, winning those games by a combined score of 94-43.  Overall, Seattle is 21-10 SU in thirty-one preseason games under Carroll, including a solid 5-2 SU in Week 4 of the preseason.  “This will be a game of a lot of opportunity for guys to play,” Carroll said.  “This is a really exciting game. I can’t wait to get out there and see these guys go and see what they show us and all that. Don’t mistake it for being an unimportant game. Jobs are on the line Thursday.”

Oakland head coach Jack Del Rio does not care about winning games in the preseason.  Del Rio is just 2-9 SU in eleven preseason games with the Raiders, including 0-3 SU this season.  Del Rio has already stated that none of his starters will play in this game, and his intentions for the team are very clear.  “We’ll get our last look at guys we have to make decisions on,” Del Rio said.  “That’s really what the last game ends up being about. We understand the challenges we’ll face with this schedule that we have starting on the road in Tennessee, so the bottom line is we’re going to be very diligent in finishing our preparation this week for the Titans”  Seattle also has a significant quarterback rotation edge in this game with Trevone Boykin and Austin Davis in a spirited battle for the backup spot.  We’ll back Seattle in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways.  Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season.  It all depends on the coach’s philosophy.  San Francisco has a new head coach this season in Kyle Shanahan, and while he’s an exceptional offensive coordinator, he has zero experience as a head coach.  That specific fact puts him and the 49ers at a huge disadvantage in tonight’s game against Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer, especially since this is the third preseason game which typically resembles a regular season game the most.  San Francisco’s quarterback rotation of Brian Hoyer, C.J. Beathard and Matt Barkley is not a prototypical unit that has success in preseason games.

Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer cares about winning games in the preseason.  In fact, Zimmer is 13-2 SU in fifteen preseason games with the Vikings, including a perfect 3-0 SU in the third preseason game of the season.  Zimmer was very clear of his intentions prior to the preseason games starting: “We want to be crisp, we want to look sharp and I want to see the things we’ve been practicing being taken to the game field.”  The Vikings lost 20-13 in Seattle last week, and off that loss and with this being their most important preseason game, we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight at home.  We’ll lay the points with Minnesota in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play VIKINGS (-).

Milwaukee will conclude their 3-game series in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon.  The Brewers will start Jimmy Nelson in this game.  My numbers project a poor outing for Nelson against the Los Angeles lineup.  He projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a weak 4.94 ERA today.  The righty comes into this game in terrible current form.  Over his last three starts, Nelson has a horrendous 9.00 ERA and an ugly 2.20 WHIP after giving up 15 earned runs on 26 hits in his last 15 innings of work.  The Milwaukee starter has also struggled against the Los Angeles lineup in the past.  The Dodgers have hit a terrific .320 with an excellent .997 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Nelson during his career.  He is backed by an inconsistent Brewers’ bullpen that has 30 losses and 19 blown saves this year.

Los Angeles will send Yu Darvish to the mound today and he projects to have a fantastic outing against Milwaukee’s lineup based on my numbers.  Darvish is slated to give up 2.2 earned runs with a terrific 3.20 ERA and an excellent 1.03 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a strong 11.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a fantastic 4.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Brewers this afternoon.  In three starts for the Dodgers this season, Darvish is 2-0 after giving up just 5 earned runs on 16 hits in 18 innings of work while earning a strong 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in those games with a 22/4 strikeout/walk ratio.  Darvish has dominated Milwaukee’s offense in the past.  The Brewers have hit just .196 with a weak .488 OPS against Darvish during his career.  He is backed by a strong Dodgers’ bullpen that is 18-4 at home this season with a 2.23 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.  Milwaukee’s offense is struggling with just 10 total runs scored in their past five games (2.0 runs per game) while batting below .200 overall.  We’ll back Los Angeles on the run line in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play DODGERS (-1.5 run line).

Chicago lost 7-1 in Philadelphia last night, but we expect a much different outcome on Saturday night.  The Cubs will send Kyle Hendricks to the mound and he projects to have a fantastic outing against Philadelphia’s lineup based on my numbers.  Hendricks is slated to give up 2.2 earned runs with a solid 3.66 ERA and an excellent 1.20 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a strong 8.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 3.6 strikeout/walk ratio against the Phillies tonight.  The Chicago starter comes into this game in terrific current form.  Over his last three starts, Hendricks has given up just 4 earned runs on 16 hits in 16.2 innings of work while earning a fantastic 2.16 ERA in those games.  Hendricks has had plenty of success against Philadelphia’s offense in the past.  The Phillies have hit just .172 with a weak .476 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Hendricks during his career.  He is backed by a solid Chicago bullpen that has a 3.32 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season where they have converted 77% of their save attempts (13-for-17).

Philadelphia will start Ben Lively in this game.  My numbers project a poor outing for Lively against Chicago’s lineup.  He projects to give up 3.5 earned runs with a horrendous 5.52 ERA tonight.  The righty also projects to have a weak 5.4 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Cubs in this game.  Lively has been awful in night starts this season.  The Philadelphia starter is 0-4 with a poor 4.25 ERA and 1.45 WHIP after giving up 14 earned runs on 34 hits in 29.2 innings of work.  He is backed by an inconsistent Philadelphia bullpen that has 30 losses and 18 blown saves this year.  Despite back-to-back losses, the Cubs’ offense has still scored 82 runs in their past twelve games (6.8 runs per game).  We’ll back Chicago on the run line in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play CUBS (-1.5 runline).

NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways.  Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season.  It all depends on the coach’s philosophy.  Buffalo has a new head coach this season in Sean McDermott.  He has zero experience as a head coach, so he’s at a huge disadvantage versus Baltimore’s John Harbaugh in this game, especially in a Week 3 situation.  And this quote by McDermott prior to the preseason spoke clearly as to his intentions: “I know there’s a score and you want to win games,” he said. “That said, there are things that we want to see and the biggest thing for us is that we are fundamentally improving. There’s a journey.”  The Bills are 0-2 in the preseason, and they’ll still be winless after tonight.

Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh cares about winning games in the preseason, especially in the first three weeks.  In fact, Harbaugh is 26-12 SU in thirty-eight preseason games with the Ravens, including a solid 6-3 SU in Week 3 of the preseason.  “We’ve just got a plan that we’re sticking with,” Harbaugh said when asked about tonight’s game against the Buffalo Bills.  Baltimore also has the significant quarterback rotation in this game.  The Ravens will play Ryan Mallett, and then a combination of Josh Woodrum and Thaddeus Lewis who have specific skills that dominate second and third string defenses in the preseason.  Buffalo will trot out Tyrod Taylor early, but they’ll finish the game with a mix of Nathan Peterman and T.J. Yates.  We’ll back Baltimore in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play RAVENS (-).

San Francisco will begin a 3-game series in Arizona on Friday night.  The Giants will start Ty Blach in this game.  My numbers project a poor outing for Blach against Arizona’s lineup.  He projects to give up 3.5 earned runs with a terrible 5.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP tonight.  The lefty also projects to have a weak 5.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.8 strikeout/walk ratio against the Diamondbacks in this game.  Blach enters this game in awful current form.  Over his last three starts, Blach owns a horrendous 6.87 ERA and an ugly 1.64 WHIP after giving up 14 earned runs on 24 hits in his last 18.1 innings of work.  The San Francisco starter has also struggled against Arizona’s lineup in the past.  The Diamondbacks have hit a terrific .364 with an excellent 1.326 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Blach during his career.  He is backed by a Giants’ bullpen that has a horrible 5.25 ERA and 1.64 WHIP on the road this year.

Arizona will send Zack Greinke to the mound tonight.  Greinke projects to have a fantastic outing against San Francisco’s lineup based on my numbers.  He is slated to give up 2.5 earned runs with a solid 3.52 ERA and an excellent 1.14 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a strong 8.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a fantastic 4.5 strikeout/walk ratio against the Giants this evening.  In home games this season, Greinke is 11-1 after giving up just 24 earned runs on 63 hits in 92.1 innings of work while earning an incredible 2.34 ERA and a sterling 0.89 WHIP in those games.  Greinke has had plenty of success against San Francisco’s offense in the past.  The Giants have hit just .246 (48-for-195) with a weak .663 OPS against Greinke during his career.  San Francisco has been weaker on the road versus right-handed pitchers this season, averaging just 3.8 runs per nine innings with a .237 batting average, compared to 4.6 runs and .266 versus LHP.  We’ll back Arizona on the run line in this game on Friday night.

10* Play DIAMONDBACKS (-1.5 runline).

San Diego will conclude their 3-game series in St. Louis on Thursday night.  The Padres will start Luis Perdomo who has a weak 4.93 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season.  My numbers project another poor outing for Perdomo against the St. Louis lineup.  He projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a poor 4.96 ERA in this game.  The righty also projects to have a weak 5.6 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Cardinals tonight.  Perdomo has been awful in night starts this season.  The San Diego starter owns a terrible 5.40 ERA and an ugly 1.68 WHIP after giving up 45 earned runs on 94 hits in 75 innings of work in those outings.  The St. Louis offense is in good current form; the Cardinals have averaged 6.1 runs per game over their last seven games.

St. Louis will send Carlos Martinez to the mound tonight.  Martinez projects to have a fantastic outing against San Diego’s lineup based on my numbers.  He is slated to give up 2.2 earned runs with a terrific 3.05 ERA and an excellent 1.08 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a strong 9.6 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a fantastic 4.0 strikeout/walk ratio against the Padres this evening.  In home games this season, Martinez is 6-3 after giving up just 30 earned runs on 64 hits in 80.1 innings of work while earning a solid 3.36 ERA and a sterling 1.10 WHIP in those games.  Martinez will now face a San Diego offense that is in bad current form; the Padres have hit just .206 as a team while only averaging 3.3 runs per game over their last seven games.  We’ll back St. Louis on the run line in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play CARDINALS (-1.5 runline).

New York beat Detroit 13-4 last night, and we expect another blowout win on Wednesday night.  The Yankees will send Luis Severino to the mound and he projects to have a fantastic outing against Detroit’s lineup based on my numbers.  Severino is slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a solid 3.51 ERA and an excellent 1.19 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a strong 9.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 3.5 strikeout/walk ratio against the Tigers tonight.  In road games this season, Severino is 5-1 after giving up just 22 earned runs on 68 hits in 82.2 innings of work while earning an excellent 2.40 ERA and a sterling 1.08 WHIP in those outings.  Severino will face a Detroit offense that is in bad current form; the Tigers have averaged only averaging 3.9 runs during their past seven games.  The Tigers have also been weaker versus right-handed pitchers this season, averaging just 4.7 runs per nine innings with a .250 batting average, compared to 5.5 runs and .282 versus LHP.

Detroit will start Jordan Zimmermann who has a poor 5.87 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season, including a horrendous 9.77 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in his past three starts.  My numbers project another poor outing for Zimmermann against New York’s lineup.  He projects to give up 3.1 earned runs with a poor 4.86 ERA in this game.  The righty also projects to have a weak 5.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Yankees tonight.  Zimmermann has been awful in night games this season.  The Detroit starter is just 2-8 with a woeful 6.11 ERA and 1.54 WHIP after giving up 62 earned runs on 116 hits in 91.1 innings of work in those outings.  New York’s offense is in good current form; the Yankees have averaged 5.9 runs over their last seven games.  The Yankees have also been stronger versus right-handed pitchers this year, averaging 5.5 runs per nine innings with a .263 batting average, compared to just 4.5 runs and .236 versus LHP.  We’ll back New York on the run line in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play YANKEES (-1.5 runline).

NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways.  Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season.  It all depends on the coach’s philosophy.  Chicago head coach John Fox cares about winning games in the preseason.  In fact, Fox is 32-29 SU in sixty-one preseason games with three different teams.  Chicago’s first-team offense was bad last week, especially quarterback Mike Glennon, so expect a much improved performance tonight: “I can’t wait to get to Arizona,” said Glennon.  “We developed some rhythm during the week in practice. A lot of things that we struggled with in the first game, we’re looking to correct those.”  Rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky was terrific last week, so expect him to shine in the second half against Arizona’s backup defense.

Arizona head coach Bruce Arians does not care about winning games in the preseason.  Arians is just 8-10 SU in preseason games.  Arians calls the offensive plays in the regular season, but he doesn't for the first few preseason games.  That job goes to quarterback coach Byron Leftwich who has very little experience in doing so.  The Cardinals’ starters will only be on the field for about 20 plays: “Once we get to the game it’s more about getting in shape,” Arians said.  That direct quote says everything about Arizona’s mindset for tonight.  We’ll back Chicago in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BEARS (+).

NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways.  Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season.  It all depends on the coach’s philosophy.  Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer cares about winning games in the preseason.  In fact, Zimmer is 13-1 SU in fourteen preseason games with the Vikings, including a perfect 3-0 SU in the second preseason game of the season.  “We want to be crisp, we want to look sharp and I want to see the things we’ve been practicing being taken to the game field.”  We expect more of the same from the Vikings tonight. 

Seattle head coach Pete Carroll used to care about winning preseason games.  But that was back when the Seahawks were an up and coming team.  But once Seattle’s incredible depth dried up, Carroll’s preseason focus changed from winning to just preserving his veteran’s health for the regular season.  Last week, Seattle put up an impressive 48 points on the Los Angeles Chargers, but don’t expect a repeat of that tonight.  The Seahawks also won their Week 1 preseason game last season, but then they lost 18-11 in Week 2 to Minnesota.  “We are hoping to continue to grow and see areas of emphasis and concern, and kind of get it taken care of so that we are making progress, but we don’t want to go take a big step and all that.”  We’ll back Minnesota in this game on Friday night.

9* Play VIKINGS (+).

San Diego will begin a 3-game series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Friday night.  The Padres will start Clayton Richard who has an awful 5.17 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season.  My numbers project another poor outing for Richard against Los Angeles’ lineup.  He projects to give up 3.1 earned runs with a poor 4.81 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in this game.  The lefty also projects to have a weak 6.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Dodgers in this game.  Richard has been at his worst in away games this season.  The San Diego starter is just 1-5 on the road after giving up 33 earned runs on 78 hits in 63 innings of work while earning a terrible 4.71 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in those outings.  Richard has also struggled mightily against the Los Angeles offense in the past.  The Dodgers have hit a robust .377 (29-for-77) with an excellent 1.000 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Richard during his career.

Los Angeles will send Rich Hill to the mound tonight.  Hill projects to have a fantastic outing against San Diego’s lineup based on my numbers.  He is slated to give up just 1.9 earned runs with a solid 3.12 ERA and an excellent 1.05 WHIP in this game.  The lefty also projects to have a strong 9.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an outstanding 3.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Padres in this game.  In night games this season, Hill is 5-2 after giving up just 15 earned runs on 34 hits in 51.1 innings of work while earning a terrific 2.63 ERA and a sterling 1.07 WHIP in those games.  San Diego’s lineup has hit just .161 (5-for-31) with a weak .547 OPS against Hill during his career.  The Padres have been awful against left-handed pitchers this season, averaging just 3.3 runs per nine innings with a .219 batting average.  The Dodgers’ bullpen has been fantastic at home this year, going 15-2 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.  We’ll back Los Angeles on the run line in this game on Friday night.

10* Play DODGERS (-1.5 run line).

NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways.  Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season.  It all depends on the coach’s philosophy.  Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin was one who cared about winning preseason games.  The Steelers would play with a sense of purpose, but that was during their up and coming days.  Things have changed, and Pittsburgh is just 3-14 SU in preseason games over the last four years.  Tomlin’s teams were 19-6 SU prior to that, so the record clearly shows that Tomlin takes a different approach to preseason games now.

New York head coach Ben McAdoo will be in his second full season with the Giants.  McAdoo went just 2-2 SU in the preseason last year, but with experience now, his preparation for tonight’s game shows a sense of urgency to win.  “There is a lot of competition in camp, so the more competition, the more guys are on the bubble,” McAdoo said.  “Compete your tail off on Friday night.”  The Giants also have a fantastic quarterback battle that lends itself perfectly for preseason success.  Veterans Josh Johnson and Geno Smith will get the majority of playing time tonight, and both will hold a big advantage over the second and third string defense of Pittsburgh.  We’ll back New York in this game on Friday night.

9* Play GIANTS (-).

NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways.  Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season.  It all depends on the coach’s philosophy.  Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer cares about winning games in the preseason.  In fact, Zimmer is 12-1 SU in thirteen preseason games with the Vikings, including a perfect 4-0 SU in the first preseason game of the season.  “We want to be crisp, we want to look sharp and I want to see the things we’ve been practicing being taken to the game field.”  We expect more of the same from the Vikings tonight. 

Buffalo has a new head coach this season in Sean McDermott.  He has zero experience as a head coach, so he’s at a huge disadvantage versus Minnesota’s Zimmer in this game.  And this quote by McDermott speaks to his intentions tonight: “I know there’s a score and you want to win games,” he said. “That said, there are things that we want to see and the biggest thing for us is that we are fundamentally improving. There’s a journey. We’re looking at fundamentals and making sure we’re getting better in those areas and that those are the things that are sinking into this football team and then obviously we’re going to evaluate the players as well.”  We’ll back Minnesota in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play VIKINGS (-).

Miami will begin a 4-game series in Washington against the Nationals on Monday night.  The Marlins will start Chris O’Grady in this game.  My numbers project a poor outing for O’Grady against Washington’s lineup.  He projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a poor 4.87 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this evening.  The lefty also projects to have a weak 6.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Nationals.  O’Grady comes into this game in poor current form.  Over his last three starts, the Miami starter earned a woeful 5.52 ERA and an ugly 1.77 WHIP after giving up 9 earned runs on 16 hits in 14.2 innings of work.  O’Grady has also struggled mightily against Washington’s offense in the past.  The Nationals have hit a robust .429 with an excellent 1.286 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against O’Grady during his career.

Washington will send Max Scherzer to the mound who has been fantastic this season with a 2.21 ERA and 0.84 WHIP.  He projects to have another strong outing against Miami’s lineup based on my numbers.  Scherzer is slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a solid 3.33 ERA and an excellent 1.04 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a strong 11.6 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an outstanding 6.4 strikeout/walk ratio against the Marlins this evening.  In night games this season, Scherzer is 9-1 after giving up just 26 earned runs on 65 hits in 100.1 innings of work while earning a terrific 2.33 ERA and a sterling 0.87 WHIP.  Miami’s lineup has hit just .255 (53-for-208) against Scherzer during his career.  The Marlins are in poor current form offensively, averaging just 3.9 runs with a .210 batting during their past seven games.  We’ll back Washington on the run line in this game on Monday night.

10* Play NATIONALS (-1.5 runline).

Boston will conclude their 3-game series in Seattle on Wednesday afternoon.  The Red Sox have lost the first two games of this series, but we expect a much different outcome today.  Boston will send Chris Sale to the mound who has an excellent 1.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in his past three starts.  The ace projects to have another fantastic outing against Seattle’s lineup based on my numbers.  Sale is slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a solid 3.26 ERA and an excellent 1.03 WHIP in this game.  The lefty also projects to have a strong 10.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an outstanding 6.4 strikeout/walk ratio against the Mariners in this game.  In daytime games this season, Sale is 5-1 after giving up just 13 earned runs on 31 hits in 56.1 innings of work while earning a terrific 2.08 ERA and a sterling 0.80 WHIP in those games.  Seattle’s lineup has hit just .200 (20-for-100) with a weak .548 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Sale during his career.  He is backed by a solid Boston bullpen that has a 2.97 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season.

Seattle will start Andrew Moore in this game.  My numbers project a poor outing for Moore against Boston’s lineup.  He projects to give up 3.1 earned runs with a poor 4.68 ERA in this game.  The righty also projects to have a weak 5.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.8 strikeout/walk ratio against the Red Sox today.  Moore has been awful in his five starts this season.  The Seattle starter is just 1-2 with a woeful 5.70 ERA after giving up 19 earned runs on 32 hits in 30 innings of work.  He has been even worse in his past two outings, allowing 10 runs and 15 hits in just 9 innings with a 10.00 ERA and 1.78 WHIP.  Boston’s offense has been at their best in daytime games where they are averaging 5.0 runs per game, so expect Moore’s struggles to continue this afternoon.  We’ll back Boston on the run line in this game on Wednesday afternoon.

10* Play RED SOX (-1.5 runline).

Atlanta will begin a 3-game series in Arizona on Monday night.  The Braves will start R.A. Dickey and my numbers project a poor outing for him against Arizona’s lineup.  Dickey projects to give up 3.2 earned runs with a terrible 5.19 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a weak 5.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Diamondbacks tonight.  Dickey has been awful away from home this season.  The Atlanta starter is just 1-4 with a woeful 5.36 ERA and 1.49 WHIP after giving up 28 earned runs on 47 hits in 47 innings of work.  Dickey has struggled against Arizona’s lineup throughout his career.  The Diamondbacks have hit a solid .328 (22-for-67) with an .811 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Dickey.  Arizona averages 5.7 runs per game at home with a .275 batting average, so expect Dickey’s road struggles to continue tonight.

Arizona will send Zack Greinke to the mound tonight.  Greinke projects to have a fantastic outing against Atlanta’s lineup based on my numbers.  He is slated to give up 2.6 earned runs with a solid 3.69 ERA and an excellent 1.18 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a strong 8.4 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 4.6 strikeout/walk ratio against the Braves tonight.  In home games this season, Greinke is a perfect 9-0 after giving up 19 earned runs on 49 hits in 71 innings of work while earning an outstanding 2.41 ERA and a sterling 0.87 WHIP in those games.  Atlanta’s lineup has hit just .221 (29-for-131) with a weak .612 OPS against Greinke during his career.  He is backed by an Arizona bullpen that has a 3.49 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season, including a solid 1.20 WHIP at home.  We’ll back the Diamondbacks on the run line in this game on Monday night.

10* Play DIAMONDBACKS (-1.5 runline).