Pittsburgh squeezed into a playoff spot last season, but they’ll be hard-pressed to return to the post-season in 2015.  The Steelers went 11-5 in 2014, and six of their wins came by 8 points or less, including a pair of wins coming by exactly 3 points.  So that means more than half of their wins were close, and those close games tend to reverse the following season.  The Steelers are an old and aging team with a defense that needs a major makeover.  Pittsburgh somehow went 6-1 versus winning teams in 2014 despite a mediocre defense that allowed 368 points during the season.  They gave up 30 points or more in four games, and they gave up 27 points or more in six games overall.  Pittsburgh snapped a 2-year playoff drought last season simply by luck, but they’ll revert back to a non-playoff team in 2015.

New England comes in off a Super Bowl championship.  The Patriots have won the AFC East title six straight years, and in eleven of the last twelve years overall.  New England has simply been a dominant force in the NFL, and we expect that to continue, especially in tonight’s game against the overmatched Steelers.  Fortunately for New England, QB Tom Brady’s suspension was overturned, and he will play in this game.  The Patriots have opened the season on the road in the last four seasons, so with this game being at home, we can expect a prime effort.  The last time the Patriots opened their season at home (2010), they walloped the Bengals 38-24.  New England will play with an “us against the world” mentality after getting slammed by the media for the recent “Deflate Gate” debacle.  The Patriots are simply the superior team in this matchup, so we’ll lay the points with New England, especially since they’ve won 10 of their last 15 regular season home games by 7 points or more.

10* Play PATRIOTS (-).

Cleveland will play the White Sox in Chicago on Tuesday night.  The Indians will start Carlos Carrasco who is coming off the disabled list to make this start for Cleveland.  Carrasco is 3-6 with a terrible 5.75 ERA in eleven career starts against the White Sox.  In three starts against Chicago this season, Carrasco is 1-2 while giving up 9 earned runs on 13 hits in just 9 innings of work for a poor 9.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.  Jose Abreu (4-14), Melky Cabrera (7-15), Adam Eaton (5-12), Tyler Flowers (3-10), and Alexei Ramirez (7-25) have all had success versus the right-hander.  Chicago has scored 6 runs or more in seven of their last nine games, averaging 5.7 runs per game during that span while batting over .275 as a team.

The White Sox will start Carlos Rodon who comes into this game in excellent current form.  He owns a fantastic 1.85 ERA over his last five starts, and he has 13 quality starts this season.  In two starts against Cleveland this year, Rodon has allowed just 1 run and nine hits in 12.2 innings of work for an excellent 0.71 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  Cleveland is just 20-28 SU while hitting .243 and averaging only 3.4 runs per game versus left-handed starters this season.  The Indians are in poor current form as they’ve scored just 23 total runs in their last seven games, averaging only 3.3 runs per game with a poor .220 team batting average during that span.  Chicago presents solid value in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play WHITE SOX (+1.5 runline).

Cincinnati will host Pittsburgh on Tuesday night.  The Reds will start Raisel Iglesias who is 2-1 with a terrific 2.80 ERA and an excellent 1.04 WHIP in seven home starts for Cincinnati this season.  Iglesias comes into this game in good current form; he has allowed just 6 earned runs and only 10 hits in his last three starts (21 innings) for a 2.57 ERA and an excellent 0.86 WHIP.  Iglesias has an impressive 33/8 strikeout/walk ratio in those past three games.  Iglesias beat Pittsburgh back on August 1st after giving up just 2 runs and four hits in 6.2 innings of work.  The Pirates are 2-6 SU in their last eight games, and they have struggled mightily against divisional opponents while going just 23-34 in fifty-seven games so far this season.

Pittsburgh will start Francisco Liriano who lost his last road start in Milwaukee after giving up 4 earned runs on 7 hits in 5 innings of work.  He gave up 5 walks in that game, and his control has been an issue recently.  Liriano has walked three batters or more in five straight starts.  Liriano is just 1-5 in eleven career starts against Cincinnati.  The Reds’ offense comes into this game in good current form; they’ve averaged 6.1 runs during their past nine games while batting over .270 as a team.  Cincinnati has scored 3 runs or more in seven straight games, and in eight of their last nine games overall.  The Reds are 10-4 versus Pittsburgh this season, including 6-2 at home.  Cincinnati presents solid value in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play REDS (+1.5 runline).

Ohio State is looking to avenge last season’s 35-21 home loss to Virginia Tech on Monday night.  There was nothing fluky about that game as Virginia Tech held the potent Buckeyes’ offense to just 327 yards of total offense with 108 of those yards coming on the ground; they averaged just 2.7 yards per rush.  Ohio State had an incredible rushing attack that averaged 264 yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush last season, so it was ultra impressive what Virginia Tech’s defense did in that game.  Ohio State ran the table and won the National Championship after that loss, so what the Hokies did in that game makes it even more eye-opening.  It’s true that Ohio State has an even better team this season, but so does Virginia Tech.  Plus the Buckeyes are dealing with suspensions to some of their better players (DE Joey Bosa being one), so they are not at full strength for this game. 

Virginia Tech only went 7-6 in 2014, but five of their six losses came by 7 points or less with three losses coming by 3 points or less.  Virginia Tech returns 16 total starters (8 on each side of the ball) this season, so they’ll have a much better win/loss record in 2015.  The Hokies always possess a stout defense; they allowed just 20.2 points per game on 344 yards of offense per game last season.  Virginia Tech allowed 30 points or more in just two games last season, and the 21 points they held Ohio State to were 10 points less than the 31 points or more they scored in their other 14 games.  The Hokies held the Buckeyes to 23.8 points less than their season average of 44.8 points per game.  This line is simply inflated, especially since Virginia Tech was just an 11.5-point road underdog in last year’s meeting.  We’ll take the Hokies plus the points in this game on Monday night.

9* Play VIRGINIA TECH (+).

Pittsburgh will begin a 3-game series in Cincinnati on Monday afternoon.  The Pirates are in a terrible scheduling spot for this game as they just played a Sunday night game in St. Louis and now have to travel and play an early afternoon game in Cincinnati.  The Pirates will start Jeff Locke who comes into this game in poor current form.  Locke has allowed 13 runs and 25 hits in his last three starts while earning a horrendous 7.47 ERA and an ugly 1.72 WHIP.  Locke is 4-5 with a terrible 6.00 ERA and a woeful 1.62 WHIP in twelve road starts this season.  Locke has given up 11 runs and 21 hits over his last 16 innings pitched against the Reds.  Todd Frazier (9-23) and Joey Votto (6-18) have had the most success versus the southpaw.  Cincinnati’s offense has scored 52 total runs in their last eight games (6.5 runs per game) while batting over .280 as a team, so they enter in excellent current form.

Cincinnati will start Anthony DeSclafani who has a solid 3.87 ERA in his 26 starts for the Reds this season.  The righty has allowed just 6 earned runs in 17 innings pitched against the Pirates.  Josh Harrison (0-8), Andrew McCutchen (1-6), and Aramis Ramirez (0-4) have all struggled versus DeSclafani.  Pittsburgh’s offense is not in the best of form right now; the Pirates have scored just 28 total runs in their last seven games (4.0 runs per game) and overall they are just 23-33 SU while scoring only 3.9 runs per game versus divisional opponents this season.  The Reds are 9-4 against the Pirates in their last 13 meetings, including 5-2 in their last seven home meetings.  We’ll back Cincinnati in this solid scheduling situation on Monday afternoon.

10* Play REDS (+1.5 runline).

Arkansas State will be a good team in the Sun Belt conference this season, but they are simply out-classed in this game versus USC.  The Red Wolves have shown no ability to step-up in class on the road in recent years as their defense cannot stop teams from BCS conferences.  In their last six road games versus power conferences, Arkansas State has allowed 34, 41, 38, 41, 57, and 42 points.  The Red Wolves have no chance to match points with the potent USC offense in this game, especially since they’ll have limited scoring opportunities.  Arkansas State returns just six starters on defense, and that unit was awful last season despite playing with seven returnees from the season before.  The Red Wolves gave up 30.5 points on 421 yards per game, and that unit will get roughed-up in this game against Southern Cal.

USC is a loaded team that includes 14 starters from last year’s 9-4 team that had to play a brutal schedule with multiple injuries and limited depth.  Head coach Steve Sarkisian is in his second season in Los Angeles, and his team will improve significantly in 2015.  The Trojans have exceptional talent on both sides of the ball, and their offense will be led by one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Cody Kessler.  He completed 69.7% of his passes last season for 3,826 yards with an exceptional 39/5 touchdown/interception ratio.  The Trojans are on a mission this season after the mess they’ve been thru over the last few seasons.  USC is not going to take this game lightly as they need to impress to get back on the national radar.  We’ll lay the points with the Trojans on Saturday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Troy will begin a new era on Saturday night as new head coach Neal Brown replaces Larry Blakeney who won 178 games over the last 24 seasons.  Troy had a terrible 3-9 record in 2014, and a major reason for that was the poor play of their offense which averaged just 21.8 points per game.  The Trojans’ defense has been a sieve in recent years, and in fact, Troy has allowed 30 points per game or more in five straight seasons.  With Brown implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball, Troy will go thru growing pains, especially early on this season.  Troy has been noncompetitive when playing on the road against BCS schools in recent years.  Last season, the Trojans lost 66-0 at Georgia.  The season before, Troy lost 62-7 at Mississippi State.  Both of those SEC teams have power running attacks, and that is the exact type of team Troy will face in this game at North Carolina State.

NC State will be in their third year under head coach Dave Doeren.  The Wolfpack improved on both sides of the ball last season, and we expect major improvement once again in 2015.  Doeren has 15 returning starters back from last season’s 8-5 team which averaged 30.2 points per game on 409 yards of offense per game.  NC State’s strength is running the football; they averaged 205 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per rush last season.  Quarterback Jacoby Brissett made a huge difference for this team after transferring from Florida.  He’s a dual threat quarterback that creates a lot of big plays with his arm and his legs, and that ability makes NC State’s offense difficult to stop.  This game is a mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Wolfpack on Saturday night.

9* Play NC STATE (-).

Texas will open their 3-game in Los Angeles against the Angels on Friday night.  The Rangers will go with Martin Perez who continues to round into good form as he makes his ninth start of the season.  Perez has allowed just 8 earned runs in his last three starts.  In his two career starts against the Angels, Perez has given up just 3 earned runs on 8 hits in 14.1 innings of work for a strong 1.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.  Los Angeles is only hitting .228 while averaging just 3.6 runs per game versus left-handed starters this season.  The Angels are just 4-9 SU in their past thirteen games overall, so they are in poor current form.  The Rangers’ bullpen is 14-8 on the road while converting 24 of their 32 save opportunities this season.

Los Angeles will start Garrett Richards who comes into this game in poor current form; he has allowed 15 runs and 25 hits in 19 innings of work over his last three starts with a poor 5.68 ERA.  Richards has struggled against the Texas lineup with Elvis Andrus (9-32), Adrian Beltre (9-31), Prince Fielder (7-16), Leonys Martin (5-19), and Mike Napoli (5-9) all hitting the right-hander well.  Texas is 6-1 SU while averaging 4.3 runs with a .283 batting average in their last seven games.  Texas has scored 4 runs or more in ten of their last eleven games overall.  The Rangers are 38-30 on the road, and 46-37 against right-handed starters this season.  Texas presents solid value in this game on Friday night.

9* Play RANGERS (+1.5 runline).

Texas-San Antonio was expected to be a really good team last season as they returned 20 starters from a team that went 7-5 the previous season.  But the Roadrunners failed miserably as they went just 4-8 in 2014.  Now UTSA comes into this season will little expectations as they are one of the youngest and least experienced teams in college football.  The Roadrunners only have 6 returning starters from last season, and they have limited depth on the two-deep after graduating the majority of their team.  UTSA will start a redshirt freshman (Blake Bogenschutz) at quarterback which is certainly a negative, especially with this game being on the road against a strong Pac 12 team.  Head coach Larry Coker has also indicated that Bogenschutz will not be the only quarterback to play in this game, and that is not good for the mindset of a young signal caller.  “The No. 1 job is very close and it isn’t over. This thing is going to battle out throughout the year. You may see more than one quarterback the first ball game.”  Bogenschutz and any other quarterback will play behind a makeshift offensive line that is a complete mess coming into this game.  The Roadrunners altered their line just this week, moving their right guard to center.  “We’re just going to put our best five on the field,” said coach Mike Markuson.  “However we have to get ’em on the field, right guard, center, it doesn’t matter.”  Those quotes show there’s no stability, and it means UTSA will have a difficult time moving the football in this game.

Arizona returns 7 offensive starters from last year’s team that went 10-4.  The Wildcats averaged 34.5 points per game on 464 yards per game in 2014, and that was with a freshman quarterback under center.  Anu Solomon returns for his sophomore season, and the offense will be even better than they were a season ago.  Solomon faced UTSA in the second game of last season; that was his first collegiate road start, and it came on a short week.  Solomon still lead the Wildcats to 26 points on 454 yards of offense.  Arizona ran for 223 yards on 5.1 yards per rush, and they will dominate on the ground once again in this game.  Head coach Rich Rodriguez is in his fourth season in Tucson, and his team has come out scoring in the last two years.  Arizona won their home opener 35-0 in 2013, and last season they won their home opener 58-13.  This game is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats on Thursday night. 

10* Play ARIZONA (-).

Milwaukee will wrap-up their 3-game home series against Pittsburgh on Thursday night.  The Brewers will start Taylor Jungmann who is 4-2 with a terrific 1.50 ERA and an excellent 1.17 WHIP in seven home starts for Milwaukee this season.  Jungmann is a perfect 2-0 with a fantastic 1.29 ERA and an incredible 0.86 WHIP in two starts versus Pittsburgh this season.  Jungmann has given up just 2 earned runs on 8 hits in 14 innings pitched against the Pirates.  Pittsburgh comes into this game in poor current form; the Pirates have lost three straight games and their offense has averaged just 2.7 runs with a batting average below .225 during that span.  The Brewers’ bullpen picked up a win on Wednesday night moving them to 12-7 at home this season with 20 saves in 26 chances.  Overall, the Brewers' bullpen is a solid 18-11 this season, converting 33 of 41 save opportunities (81%), so Jungmann has plenty of support on the backend.

Pittsburgh will start Francisco Liriano who is just 6-5 with a poor 4.12 ERA in his 13 career starts versus Milwaukee.  Liriano lost his lone start against Milwaukee this season as a -175 favorite.  Ryan Braun (6-21) and Jean Segura (5-15) have had the most success against the southpaw.  Milwaukee’s offense comes into this game in excellent current form as the Brewers have scored 47 total runs in their last eight games, averaging 5.9 runs per game with a team batting average over .290 during that span.  The Pirates’ bullpen has a losing 6-9 record on the road, compared to 20-4 at home, so Liriano has less support on the backend tonight.  The Brewers are 16-10 versus the Pirates in their last 26 meetings at home in this series, including 6-2 in their eight meetings this season.  Milwaukee presents solid value in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play BREWERS (+1.5 runline).

Cincinnati will wrap-up their 3-game series in Chicago against the Cubs on Wednesday afternoon.  The Reds will start Raisel Iglesias who has thrown six straight quality starts.  Iglesias is in excellent current form; he has allowed just 5 runs on 10 hits in his last three starts.  He has a terrific 26/6 strikeout/walk ratio in his last 21 innings of work with a powerful 1.71 ERA and 0.76 WHIP.  Back on July 21st, Iglesias held the Cubs to just 2 earned runs on six hits with 8 strikeouts.  Chicago’s offense is not in good current form as they are only averaging 2.7 runs with a weak .211 team batting average in their past seven games.  Overall, the Cubs are hitting only .225 while averaging just 3.7 runs in daytime games this season.

Chicago will start Jason Hammel who comes into this game in poor current form.  He has allowed 10 runs and 19 hits in his last three starts while earning a terrible 6.28 ERA and an ugly 1.68 WHIP in those outings.  In 13 home starts this season, Hammel only has two wins for the Cubs.  In his two starts against Cincinnati this season, Hammel has given up 6 runs on 12 hits in just 10 innings of work with a terrible 1.80 WHIP.  Overall, Hammel owns a poor 4.84 ERA in his six career starts versus the Reds.  Jay Bruce (3-11), Brandon Phillips (5-14), and Todd Frazier (2-7) have hit Hammel well.  The Reds’ offense is in good current form; they’ve scored 30 total runs in their last four games (7.5 runs per game).  Cincinnati presents solid value in this game on Wednesday afternoon.

9* Play REDS (+1.5 runline).

Cincinnati will play the second game of this three-game series in Chicago on Tuesday night.  The Reds will start Anthony DeSclafani who has a terrific 2.60 ERA and a fantastic 1.19 WHIP in his 13 road starts for Cincinnati this season.  DeSclafani has a solid 16/3 strikeout/walk ratio in his last three starts.  In his two starts against the Cubs in Chicago this season, DeSclafani has given up just 1 earned run on 8 hits in 13.1 innings of work for a fantastic 0.68 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.  Kris Bryant (1-6), Dexter Fowler (2-9), Anthony Rizzo (0-11), and Jorge Soler (1-6) have all struggled versus the right-hander.  The Cubs are only hitting .237 while averaging 3.9 runs per game at home this season.  Chicago’s offense has scored just 14 total runs in their last six games overall (2.3 runs per game) while barely hitting .200 as a team, so they are not in good current form.

Chicago will start Dan Haren who comes into this game in poor current form; he has allowed 12 runs and 19 hits in his last three starts with a terrible 7.05 ERA.  He gave up five home runs in those outings as well.  Haren is just 5-4 with a weak 4.33 ERA in his ten career starts against the Reds.  Zack Cozart (4-7), Todd Frazier (4-11), Brayan Pena (3-10), Brandon Phillips (8-27), and Joey Votto (4-15) have all hit Haren well.  Cincinnati’s offense comes into this game in strong current form as they’ve scored 26 total runs in their last three games with 36 combined hits.  The Cubs’ bullpen has 21 losses and 17 blown saves on the season, so Haren has inconsistent support on the backend.  Cincinnati presents solid value in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play REDS (+1.5 runline).

Baltimore will play in Texas on Saturday night.  The Orioles will start Ubaldo Jimenez who is 3-6 with a terrible 5.12 ERA and an ugly 1.57 WHIP in his 14 road starts this season.  Jimenez comes into this game in poor current form; he has allowed 14 runs and 24 hits in his last three outings (15.2 innings) for a terrible 8.04 ERA and 1.98 WHIP during that span.  In his last start on Monday in Kansas City, Jimenez gave up 7 earned runs on 10 hits in just 5.2 innings of work.  Adrian Beltre (9-23), Prince Fielder (11-39), Mike Napoli (4-13), and Will Venable (5-15) have all hit Jimenez well.  The Rangers have scored 4 runs or more in six straight games while batting over .280 as a team, so they should have continued offensive success against Jimenez tonight.

Texas will start Martin Perez who comes in with extra rest as his last start came back on August 20th.  Perez is in good current form; he has allowed just 7 earned runs in his last three outings.  Over his last 25.1 innings of work, Perez has given up only 8 earned runs and just 23 hits with 16 strikeouts and only 5 walks.  Adam Jones (0-6) and Chris Davis (1-5) have struggled the most versus the southpaw.  Baltimore has been a much weaker team on the road this season, going 24-39 SU while scoring only 3.9 runs per game with a .240 batting average.  The Orioles are just 1-8 SU in their past nine games overall and the problem has been a weak offense that has scored just 27 totals runs during that span (3.0 runs per game).  Texas is 4-1 SU against Baltimore in their last five meetings and the Rangers present solid value in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play RANGERS (+1.5 runline).

Philadelphia has been an offensive juggernaut in the preseason under head coach Chip Kelly.  The Eagles have scored 28 points or more in their last six preseason games, including 36 and 40 points so far this season.  Philadelphia has a spirited quarterback battle going on in camp even though Sam Bradford will be the starter in the regular season.  The rotation of Bradford, Sanchez, Barkley, and Tebow doesn’t get much better for preseason.  Bradford will see the bulk of the plays in this game as Kelly has shown a pattern of playing his starting quarterback extended time in the third preseason game.  The first-team Eagles’ offense will likely play into the third quarter, and they will be facing the second and third string defense of Green Bay.  Philadelphia will continue their trend of scoring a lot of points in a preseason game, especially since Packers’ defensive coordinator Dom Capers said he will not game plan for the Eagles’ hurry-up offense. 

Green Bay comes into this game from the opposite end of the spectrum.  The Packers could care less about this game, and their main objective is to avoid any more injuries.  Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy is not willing to risk QB Aaron Rodgers, especially since the Packers will be missing three starting offensive linemen.  Wide receiver Jordy Nelson was lost for the season in last week’s game, and that played a major role in McCarthy’s decision to sit his best players.  Backup QB Scott Tolzien is out with injury, so Green Bay will have a quarterback rotation of rookie Brett Hundley and Matt Blanchard who combine to have very little experience.  This game shouldn’t be close, so we’ll lay the points with Philadelphia on Saturday night. 

9* Play EAGLES (-).

Cleveland will host Milwaukee for a quick two-game interleague series beginning on Tuesday night.  The Indians are in a poor situational and scheduling spot for this game as they will be playing in their third city in three days.  They played in New York on Sunday, in Chicago on Monday, and now back in Cleveland tonight.  The Indians will start Josh Tomlin who will be making his first start at home this season.  Tomlin was 4-10 with a terrible 5.84 ERA in 17 home starts between 2012 and 2014.  Tomlin will face a Milwaukee offense that is in good current form.  The Brewers are hitting .282 while averaging 5.4 runs per game in their last seven games overall.

Milwaukee will start Wily Peralta who has won two straight starts, and he has allowed 3 runs or less in two of his past three starts.  Only Chris Johnson (1-5) has seen Peralta before, so that gives the right-hander a nice advantage in this game.  Cleveland is only 24-34 SU at home this season, so they have no home field advantage.  The Indians are in poor current form offensively, scoring 2 runs or less in five of their past ten games, including hitting just .240 while averaging only 3.1 runs per game in their last seven games overall.  The Brewers’ bullpen owns a 3.14 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road where they have converted 13 of 15 saves this season (87%), so Peralta has support on the backend.  Milwaukee presents solid value in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play BREWERS (+1.5 runline).

San Diego won 17-7 at home over Dallas in their first preseason game last week.  That win was somewhat by default as neither team put much effort into that game.  The Chargers still have a ton of injury concerns, and tonight’s game in Arizona will be another in which they simply go thru the motions.  Head coach Mike McCoy is much more focused on the regular than he is on tonight’s game against the Cardinals.  “We’re going to look at what’s the best interest of some players,” McCoy said.  “We’ll hold some guys out that normally would play. But that’s my job and the staff’s job. We’re looking to get all 53 healthy for the opener. That’s the big picture.”  Starting Quarterback Philip Rivers is only expected to play a series or two before giving way to the rotation of Kellen Clemens, Brad Sorensen, and Chase Rettig.  Clemens and Sorensen combined for just 55 total passing yards in last week’s game.

Arizona comes into this game looking to play a good all-around game.  The Cardinals lost 34-19 to the Chiefs last week, but all was not bad.  The first team offense under Carson Palmer was exceptional as they scored 10 points on their first two drives.  Palmer has been terrific in camp, and the offense is looking for more of the same tonight.  “This year, we’re on the same page now," Andre Ellington said.  ”Carson’s back. We have our leader back. When he’s out there, the offense is going smooth.”  Drew Stanton will come in after Palmer, so the Cardinals will have a strong quarterback duo for the first half of this game.  The backend of Arizona’s rotation is Logan Thomas, who gained experience last year, and Phillip Sims.  This game should be in hand by the time they see action and we’ll lay the points with Arizona on Saturday night

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

Seattle was a team that took preseason games very serious under head coach Pete Carroll.  But the Seahawks’ philosophy has changed, and that was quite evident in last week’s home game against Denver.  A major reason for the difference in approach has to do with injuries.  Seattle has major injury concerns on their offensive line and in the secondary, and they have limited depth to cover up those areas of need.  The Seahawks gave up seven sacks last week, and Carroll isn’t going to risk QB Russell Wilson under center for very long in this game.  Backup quarterback Tarvaris Jackson is out with injury, so that means RJ Archer will play the majority of the game.  BJ Daniels will mop up late, so it’s hard to imagine Seattle scoring many points in this game.

Kansas City comes into this game in a much better situation.  The Chiefs will play their starters for the majority of the first half according to head coach Andy Reid.  The first unit struggled in their first game, and quarterback Alex Smith is looking to play much better in this game.  “You want to go out and execute. You want to have some success, you want to score some points, you want to put some drives together. Go out and make some plays and get in a rhythm.”  The second unit was phenomenal last week under quarterback Chase Daniel.  He threw for three touchdowns in that game, and he’s focused on another strong performance.  “Yeah, it’s super important,” Daniel said.  “This is the time to shine and put it on tape. You’re not only auditioning for this team, but you’re auditioning for 31 other teams.”  We’ll lay the points with Kansas City in this game on Friday night.   

9* Play CHIEFS (-).

Pittsburgh will host San Francisco on Friday night.  The Pirates will start Jeff Locke who is 3-3 with a solid 3.16 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 13 home starts for Pittsburgh this season.  Locke will face a San Francisco offense that is in terrible current form.  The Giants have scored 6 total runs in the first four games of this current road trip.  San Francisco is just 30-32 on the road this season, including 1-6 in their last seven road games.  The Pirates’ bullpen has a terrific 2.45 ERA and an excellent 1.08 WHIP at home, so Locke has plenty of support on the backend.  The bullpen also owns an impressive 18-4 record at home this season.

San Francisco will start Madison Bumgarner who has a poor 4.16 ERA in 11 road starts for the Giants this season.  Bumgarner has lost two of his last three starts against the Pirates with Josh Harrison (4-5), Jordy Mercer (3-7), Aramis Ramirez (6-18), and Neil Walker (3-9) all having success versus the lefty.  Pittsburgh is 14-9 while hitting .284 and averaging 4.6 runs per game versus left-handed starters this season.  The Pirates are scoring 5.5 runs per game in their last eight games while going 7-1 SU, so they are in excellent current form.  Pittsburgh also has an extremely strong home field, going 42-19 at home this season.  They are already 4-0 against San Francisco this year and 12-6 in their last 18 meetings versus the Giants.  Pittsburgh presents solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog, especially since this should be a low-scoring game with a posted total of 7 un-120.

9* Play PIRATES (+1.5 runline).

Washington will play in Colorado on Wednesday night.  The Nationals will start Stephen Strasburg who is 3-3 with a terrible 6.00 ERA and an ugly 1.51 WHIP in his eight road starts this season.  Strasburg has given up 27 runs on 50 hits in just 39 innings away from home.  His last outing in Coors Field was terrible; Strasburg allowed 4 earned runs and 9 hits in 5.1 innings of work.  Washington’s bullpen is just 4-12 on the road with a mediocre 3.86 ERA, so Strasburg has inconsistent support on the backend.  Colorado’s offense has scored at least 5 runs or more in four straight games on this current homestand and overall the Rockies are averaging 5.5 runs per game at home this season with a strong .303 team batting average.

Colorado will start Jorge De La Rosa who comes into this game in terrific current form.  He has allowed just 7 earned runs and 17 hits in his last three starts (18.2 innings) with a solid 1.13 WHIP during that span.  De La Rosa is 5-2 in nine career starts against the Nationals.  In his last home outing versus Washington, De La Rosa gave up just 1 earned run on 8 hits in 7.1 innings of work.  He had 11 strikeouts and zero walks in that 6-4 home underdog win over the Nationals.  Washington is hitting just .247 in their 28 games versus left-handed starters this season.  Despite last night's win, the Nationals are still just 2-7 SU in their past nine games, and they had scored 1 run or less in four of their six prior games before last night.  Colorado presents solid value in this game at home on Wednesday night.

9* Play ROCKIES (+1.5 runline).

Detroit will wrap-up their quick two-game interleague series in Chicago against the Cubs on Wednesday night.  The Tigers will start Daniel Norris who has yet to lose in five road starts this season.  Norris is a perfect 2-0 with a terrific 2.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP away from home this season.  Only four hitters in Chicago’s lineup have faced Norris before; Chris Coghlan (0-1), Matt Szczur (0-1), Jorge Soler (1-1), and Javier Baez (0-0, BB).  The unfamiliarity with Norris leaves the Cubs' offense at a disadvantage in this game, especially since the Cubs are hitting just .240 versus left-handed starters this season, and only .232 in all home games while averaging just 3.6 runs.

Chicago will start Jon Lester who is only 6-6 in 15 home starts for the Cubs this season.  Lester is 3-6 with a poor 4.76 ERA and an ugly 1.67 WHIP in his 12 career starts against the Tigers.  Back on June 9th, Lester gave up 5 earned runs and 9 hits in just 4.1 innings pitched at Detroit.  Alex Avila (3-8), Miguel Cabrera (14-25), Rajai Davis (14-44), Victor Martinez (8-19), and Nick Castellanos (3-7) have all hit Lester well.  The Cubs’ bullpen has 20 losses and 16 blown saves on the season, so Lester has inconsistent support on the backend.  The Tigers are a respectable 16-13 versus left-handed starters while scoring 4.2 runs with a strong .277 team batting average.  Detroit presents solid value as a +1.5 runline underdog in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play TIGERS (+1.5 runline).

Cincinnati will host Kansas City for a quick two-game interleague series beginning on Tuesday night.  The Reds will start Raisel Iglesias who is a perfect 2-0 at home this season.  Iglesias has a strong 1.19 WHIP in those outings five outings with a 30/11 strikeout/walk ratio.  Iglesias comes into this game in terrific current form; he has allowed just 6 runs and 10 hits in his last three starts with a solid 2.89 ERA and 0.75 WHIP.  He won two of those outings while having a fantastic 19/4 strikeout/walk ratio in 18.2 innings of work.  Kansas City has scored just 14 total runs in their last four road games, and this is their first road game after a 10-game homestand, so they are likely to struggle against the right-hander tonight.  The Reds’ bullpen is 12-9 with a solid 1.24 WHIP at home this season, so Iglesias has support on the backend.

Kansas City will start Edinson Volquez who is only 4-4 in eleven road starts for the Royals this season.  Volquez is 1-2 with a terrible 4.84 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in his six career starts against Cincinnati.  Jay Bruce (7-14), Marlon Byrd (5-19), and Skip Schumaker (5-18) have had the most success against Volquez.  The Reds have been a much better team at home this season where they are 28-26 SU and scoring 4.5 runs per game with a .261 batting average, compared to just 23-39 SU on the road where they score just 3.5 runs per game with an weak .239 batting average.  Cincinnati has scored 30 total runs in their last six games (5.0 runs per game), so they should hit Volquez well.  Cincinnati presents solid value in this game at home on Tuesday night.

9* Play REDS (+1.5 runline).

Tampa Bay will begin a 4-game series in Houston on Monday night.  The Rays will start Erasmo Ramirez who is 9-4 with a 3.11 ERA and an excellent 1.07 WHIP in his 18 starts for Tampa Bay this season.  In his last three starts, Ramirez has allowed just 6 runs and 16 hits for a 2.84 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with two of those outings coming on the road.  Ramirez beat the Astros at home back on July 10th after giving up just 1 earned run and 4 hits in 6 innings of work.  In his three career starts against Houston, Ramirez is 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.  Chris Carter (1-7), Hank Conger (2-9), and Jake Marisnick (1-4) have all struggled versus the right-hander.  Houston’s offense is in poor current form as they’ve scored just 22 total runs in their last eight games, averaging only 2.8 runs per game and barely batting .200 as a team during that span.

Houston will start Scott Kazmir who comes into this game in poor current form.  He has lost his last two starts, allowing 7 runs and 13 hits in just 11.1 innings of work for a poor 1.50 WHIP.  Kazmir also lost his last outing against Tampa Bay back on May 22nd when he gave up 3 runs and 8 hits in 5.2 innings of work.  Overall, Kazmir is just 1-3 with a mediocre 3.86 ERA and a terrible 1.81 WHIP in his four career starts versus the Rays.  James Loney (3-9) and Rene Rivera (2-7) have hit Kazmir well.  Tampa Bay is 20-13 while averaging 4.3 runs per game with a .266 batting average against left-handed starters this season.  The Rays' offense is batting .306 during their past seven games overall, so they enter tonight in solid current form.  Tampa Bay swept the Astros in Houston earlier this season, and they are 5-2 versus Houston in their last seven meetings overall.  Tampa Bay presents solid value in this game on Monday night.

10* Play RAYS (+1.5 runline).

San Francisco will be a rebuilding team in 2015, and even though teams that fit that profile often play well in the preseason, that won’t be the case with the 49ers.  The team will be led by new head coach Jim Tomsula who has zero experience running a team.  San Francisco is also installing new schemes on both sides of the ball.  Offensive coordinator Geep Chryst has a monumental task on his hands as he’s implementing an up-tempo offense.  The 49ers are trying to do that with a mix of players that played for different schemes on different teams last season.  The quarterback rotation of Colin Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert, and Dylan Thompson is extremely weak as well, so it’s hard to imagine San Francisco generating much offense in this game.

Houston comes into this game in a much better situation.  The Texans are in their second season under head coach Bill O’Brien, and he is taking this game seriously.  “It’s a preseason game. They matter, it’s important. Anytime you go out there and play a game it’s important.”  Houston has a spirited battle going on for the starting quarterback spot between Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett.  That type of situation is a big plus in preseason games because it ensures that the quarterback and the offense will be playing with a purpose.  Tom Savage will likely finish the game at quarterback, and reports out of camp say he has been ultra impressive in running the offense.  Houston is simply in a better position to succeed right now, so we’ll lay the points with the Texans in this game on Saturday night.   

9* Play TEXANS (-).

The Red Sox will host Seattle on Saturday afternoon after an easy 15-1 blowout win last night.  The Mariners will start Felix Hernandez who isn’t in the best of form right now.  Hernandez has given up 13 earned runs and 29 hits in 20.1 innings of work over his last three starts for a weak 5.75 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.  Hernandez lost at home to the Red Sox earlier this season after giving up 4 earned runs on 7 hits in 6 innings of work.  He issued four walks in that game as well.  Hernandez lasted just 5.2 innings in his last start in Boston last season; he gave up 3 earned runs on 5 hits in that game.  Overall, Hernandez has a poor 5.40 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in his past two starts versus the Red Sox.  David Ortiz (15-38, 2 HR), Hanley Ramirez (3-11), and Pablo Sandoval (2-7) have all hit King Felix well.  Boston’s offense is in excellent current form right now as they’ve scored 45 total runs in their last six games (7.5 runs per game).  The Red Sox are averaging 5.0 runs with a .286 batting average at home this season and they are hitting .274 while scoring 4.9 runs in all daytime games this year.  Seattle’s bullpen has 26 losses and 16 blown saves on the season, and a 4.32 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road, so Hernandez has inconsistent support on the backend.

Boston will start Wade Miley who was solid in his last home start for Boston when he gave up just 2 runs and 5 hits in 6.2 innings pitched versus Tampa Bay.  Miley has also started to cut down on his number of walks; he walked just two batters in his last two games.  Seattle’s lineup has struggled mightily versus Miley as they are just 3-for-16 as a team against him.  The Mariners are 13-19 while only hitting .244 and scoring 3.2 runs per game versus left-handed starters this season.  Seattle is hitting just .218 while averaging 3.6 runs per game in the daytime this season and they enter in poor current form with just a .230 team batting average in their past seven games while averaging only 3.3 runs.  Boston’s bullpen has just five blown saves and seven losses at home on the season with a solid 1.28 WHIP, so Miley has support on the backend.  The Red Sox present solid value in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play RED SOX (+1.5 runline).

This game means a lot more to Seattle than Denver.  The Seahawks play their first game since the debacle in the Super Bowl, and in front of their home fans, head coach Pete Carroll needs to erase that memory in a big way.  Carroll has always been a coach that emphasizes wins in the preseason, and this game will be more of the same.  “We’re going to play football and start if off and get ready,” Carroll said.  “As important as anything to me, I want them to go out and get ready to go. I think there’s a real process to getting mentally right to play this game at this level of intensity we expect, and this is the first chance they really get to prepare in that manner. It’s a big deal to us. We’re going to try to play great football in all phases.”  The Seahawks have a good quarterback rotation with Tavaris Jackson following Russell Wilson.  Jackson has plenty of experience, and he’s perfect for facing second and third string defenses.

Denver is not taking this game too seriously at all.  New head coach Gary Kubiak is playing it extremely cautious with his aging veterans; none of them are expected to play.  Kubiak will start Brock Osweiler at quarterback, and he will be followed by Zac Dysert and rookie Trevor Siemian who has no experience.  The Broncos’ quarterback rotation is extremely weak, especially since they will be playing behind an offensive line that will feature three starters that have never played an NFL snap.  Denver will play Houston in their second preseason game, and that is the game Kubiak is focused on for personal reasons; he got fired from the Texans during the 2013 season.  Seattle is coming to play in this game while Denver will be going thru the motions.  We’ll lay the points with Seattle in this game on Friday night.      

9* Play SEAHAWKS (-).

Milwaukee will host St. Louis for a 3-game series beginning on Friday night.  The Brewers will start Tyler Cravy who will be making his third Major League start for the Brewers.  Cravy made his 2015 debut in St. Louis back on June 2nd; he held the Cardinals to just 1 earned run on 4 hits in 7 innings of work.  He struck out six batters and walked two in that game.  Cravy will face a St. Louis offense that is struggling right now.  The Cardinals have scored just 37 total runs in their last 12 games (3.1 runs per game) while putting up double digit hits just twice during that span.  Milwaukee’s bullpen is 15-9 with a 3.51 ERA and a solid 1.24 WHIP this season, so Cravy has support on the backend.

St. Louis will start Lance Lynn who is 2-4 with a 3.93 ERA and a weak 1.41 WHIP in his nine road starts this season.  Lynn faced the Brewers in Milwaukee back on April 26th; he gave up 6 runs and 10 hits in five innings of work.  Ryan Braun (7-25), Scooter Gennett (7-18), Jonathan Lucroy (7-25), and Jean Segura (10-26) have all hit Lynn well.  Milwaukee’s offense scored 27 runs in their recent 4-game series with the Padres while going 3-1 SU in those games.  The Brewers come into this game in excellent current form as they are averaging 4.7 runs with a .275 team batting average during their past seven games.  Milwaukee presents solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog in this game on Friday night.

10* Play BREWERS (+1.5 runline).

Boston will begin a 3-game series in New York against the Yankees on Tuesday night.  The Red Sox will start Henry Owens who will be making his Major League debut.  Owens had a solid 3.16 ERA in 21 AAA starts this season.  In 122.1 innings of work, Owens only allowed 84 hits while striking out 103 batters and walking just 56.  Owens has allowed 2 earned runs or less in four straight starts, and in five of his last six starts overall.  Owens has held left-handed hitters to a .204 batting average against while righties are hitting just .190 versus him.  The Yankees are only hitting .257 versus left-handed starters, and just .252 versus divisional opponents this season, which are their two worst offensive subsets overall.

New York will start Masahiro Tanaka who comes into this game in poor current form; he has allowed 10 runs in his last three starts for a weak 4.35 ERA and Tanaka owns a below average 4.20 ERA at home this season in eight starts.  Earlier this year, Tanaka gave up 4 runs in just five innings pitched at home versus the Red Sox.  Tanaka was even worse is his prior start at Boston last September when he allowed 7 runs in just 1.2 innings.  Overall, he has an awful 10.80 ERA and 2.40 WHIP in his past two starts versus the Red Sox.  Brock Holt (2-7) and Mike Napoli (3-6) have good numbers versus Tanaka.  Boston is in excellent current form on offense, hitting .295 in their last seven games while averaging 6.1 runs per game during that span.  The Red Sox have won two of three games in New York this season, and Boston presents solid value as a +1.5 runline underdog in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play RED SOX (+1.5 runline).

Kansas City will play the second game of this four-game series in Toronto on Friday night.  The Royals will start Johnny Cueto who will be making his first start for Kansas City.  Overall this season, Cueto is just 4-5 in eleven road starts on the year.  In his last outing in Toronto, Cueto gave up 5 runs and five hits in six innings of work.  Jose Bautista (2-5) and Edwin Encarnacion (2-4) have hit Cueto well in limited at-bats.  Toronto’s offense comes into this game in excellent current form.  The Blue Jays have scored 5 runs or more in four of their last five games, and in five of their last seven games overall.  Toronto is averaging 5.2 runs per game versus right-handed starters this season, and 5.5 runs at home in all games, so they should have success against Cueto tonight.

Toronto will start Drew Hutchison who is 7-1 with a terrific 2.21 ERA and an outstanding 1.05 WHIP in nine home starts this season.  Hutchison has dominated the Kansas City lineup with Jarrod Dyson (0-3), Mike Moustakas (0-4), Salvador Perez (0-2), Alex Rios (0-3), and Ben Zobrist (1-8) struggling the most.  Kansas City’s offense comes into this game in poor current form.  The Royals have scored just 5 total runs in their last three games, and they have averaged just 3.0 runs with a .211 batting average in their past seven games overall.  Toronto presents solid value in this home game on Friday night.

9* Play BLUE JAYS (+1.5 runline).

Tampa Bay will host Baltimore for a three-game divisional series beginning on Friday night.  The Rays will start Chris Archer who is not in good current form; he has allowed 11 runs and 17 hits in his last two starts for a horrendous 7.62 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.  Overall, Archer is just 3-4 in his ten home starts this season, and Archer is 1-3 with a terrible 6.00 ERA and an ugly 1.49 WHIP in six career starts versus Baltimore.  This season alone, Archer is 0-2 against the Orioles while giving up 8 runs on 12 hits in 11.2 innings of work for a 5.40 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.  Chris Davis (3-8), Ryan Flaherty (4-11), JJ Hardy (4-11), Manny Machado (4-14), Steve Pearce (3-8), and Matt Wieters (4-12) have all hit Archer well.  Baltimore’s best offensive subsets this season have come in their 47 games against divisional opponents as the Orioles are averaging 4.8 runs per game with a .267 team batting average.

Baltimore will start Chris Tillman who comes into this game in excellent current form; he has allowed just 4 total runs in his last three starts with a strong 1.93 ERA and 1.18 WHIP and 18/3 strikeout/walk ratio during that span.  Tillman was spectacular in his last start which came in Detroit six days ago when he held the potent Tigers' offense to no runs and just one hit in 8 innings of work; he had a terrific 8/1 strikeout/walk ratio in that game as well.  In three starts against Tampa Bay this season, Tillman has given up 8 earned runs on just 16 hits in 18.1 innings of work.  Asdrubal Cabrera (4-17), Logan Forsythe (3-14), John Jaso (4-16), Desmond Jennings (2-21), Kevin Kiermaier (1-12), and James Loney (4-27) have all struggled against Tillman.  The Rays have absolutely no home field advantage and they have gone just 23-25 at home where they are only hitting .238 while averaging just 3.5 runs per game.  Tampa Bay has scored just 13 total runs overall in their past six games since the All-Star break (2.2 runs per game) while batting only .215 as a team.  Baltimore presents solid value in this game on Friday night.

10* Play ORIOLES (+1.5 runline).

The Chicago Cubs will play in Cincinnati on Tuesday night.  The Cubs will start Jason Hammel who has thrown just one inning since July 8th.  Hammel has lost two of his last three starts overall.  Hammel gave up 4 runs and seven hits in five innings pitched at home versus the Reds back on June 12th.  In five career games against Cincinnati, Hammel is 0-1 with a terrible 5.34 ERA.  Jay Bruce (3-10), Marlon Byrd (4-12), Todd Frazier (2-6), and Brandon Phillips (4-11) have all hit Hammel well.  Chicago's bullpen has been shaky this season with 17 losses and 13 blown saves, so Hammel has inconsistent support on the backend.  The Reds’ offense is in good current form as they’ve scored 4 runs or more in three of their last four games.

Cincinnati will go with Raisel Iglesias who hasn’t lost in three home starts for the Reds this season with a solid 1.13 WHIP and 17/5 strikeout/walk ratio in those three home starts.  He has never faced the Cubs before, so that gives him a nice advantage in this game.  Chicago’s offense comes into this game in poor current form.  The Cubs have averaged just 2.6 runs with a weak .221 team batting average in their past seven games.  Cincinnati has one of the best closers in baseball with Aroldis Chapman, so Iglesias has support on the backend.  The Reds are 13-9 at home versus the Cubs over their last 22 meetings, including a 5-4 win last night.  We’ll back Cincinnati in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play REDS (+1.5 runline).

Philadelphia will host Tampa Bay on Tuesday night.  The Phillies will start Aaron Nola in this game.  Nola was 10-4 with a terrific 2.39 ERA in 18 combined starts in Double-A and Triple-A this season.  Nola has great control; he had a 92/18 strikeout/walk ratio in 109.1 innings of work.  Nola will face a Tampa Bay offense that is in poor current form.  The Rays are averaging just 2.6 runs with a .188 batting average in their past seven games and overall they have scored only 34 total runs in their last eleven games going just 4-7 SU during that span.  The Rays have struggled mightily on the road recently as they are just 2-10 SU in their last twelve games away from home.  Philadelphia’s bullpen is 10-5 with a solid 3.10 ERA at home, so Nola has plenty of support on the backend.

Tampa Bay will start Nate Karns who comes into this game in poor current form.  In his last three starts, Karns has given up 11 runs and 23 hits in 19 innings of work.  Karns earned a terrible 5.21 ERA and an ugly 1.42 WHIP in those three outings.  He will face a Philadelphia team that is in excellent current form.  The Phillies are a perfect 4-0 in their last four games while scoring a total of 22 runs (5.5 runs per game) with three of those four wins coming straight-up as a moneyline underdog.  Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been vulnerable all season as they own 19 losses on the year with a subpar 3.89 ERA.  Philadelphia presents solid value in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play PHILLIES (+1.5 runline).

The Chicago White Sox will finish their 4-game series with the Kansas City Royals on Sunday afternoon.  The White Sox will start Chris Sale who is only 6-6 in fourteen career starts against the Royals.  Back on April 23rd, Sale gave up 2 runs and nine hits in seven innings pitched to Kansas City.  He had just two strikeouts in that outing.  Lorenzo Cain (14-40), Alcides Escobar (18-48), and Salvador Perez (12-40) have all hit Sale well.  Kansas City has also hit left-handed starters well this season, and they just scored 4 runs on 10 hits against lefty Jose Quintana in their 7-6 win on Saturday.  The Royals’ offense is in fantastic current form as they are averaging 6.0 runs in their last ten games while batting over .290 as a team, so they should have success against Sale this afternoon.

Kansas City will start Danny Duffy who comes into this game in good current form; he has given up just 6 runs and 15 hits in his last three starts while earning a fantastic 2.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in those outings.  Duffy has a 3.67 ERA in six career outings against the White Sox with the Royals winning four of those games.  Gordon Beckham (2-9), Adam Eaton (2-11), Tyler Flowers (1-10), and Adam LaRoche (1-5) have all struggled versus Duffy.  Kansas City's bullpen has been excellent with a 2.11 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in all games this year.  The White Sox have struggled against left-handed starters, going just 6-11 while only hitting .213 and averaging 2.6 runs per game.  Chicago is only 17-24 in daytime games, and just 16-27 versus divisional opponents.  Kansas City is 18-8 in their last 26 games in Chicago and the Royals present solid value in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play ROYALS (+1.5 runline).

Milwaukee will host Pittsburgh for Game 2 of this 3-game series on Saturday night.  The Brewers will start Jimmy Nelson who is 2-3 with an outstanding 0.99 WHIP in seven home starts this season.  Nelson is 2-1 with a terrific 1.00 ERA and a sterling 0.89 WHIP in his three career starts against the Pirates.  All three of those starts have come this season.  Nelson will face a Pittsburgh team that has struggled against division opponents this year.  The Pirates are just 17-22 against teams in the NL Central while only averaging 3.8 runs per game, compared to 36-14 in all other games.

Pittsburgh will start Francisco Liriano who has lost two of his last three starts against the Brewers.  In his last outing against Milwaukee back on June 9th, Liriano lost 1-4 as a -175 home favorite and overall he has a weak 4.12 ERA in his 13 career starts against the Brewers.  Ryan Braun (6-21), Carlos Gomez (10-21), Khris Davis (2-7), and Jean Segura (5-15) have all hit Liriano well.  The Brewers’ offense is averaging 4.1 runs per game against left-handed starters this season and 4.5 runs in all night games with a .260 team batting average, both of which are their best offensive subsets overall.  Pittsburgh’s bullpen is just 2-9 on the road this season, so Liriano has inconsistent support on the backend.  Milwaukee presents solid value at home in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play BREWERS (+1.5 runline).

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday night.  The Dodgers will start Mike Bolsinger who is in terrible current form.  He owns a weak 3.95 ERA and an ugly 1.61 WHIP over his last three starts while giving up 6 runs on 18 hits in 13.2 innings of work.  He is coming off a home loss to the Mets in which he allowed 4 runs and nine hits in just five innings of work.  Last year against Milwaukee, Bolsinger gave up 7 runs and 14 hits in two starts for a weak 5.56 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.  Milwaukee’s lineup is hitting a combined .419 (13-for-31) versus Bolsinger with 4 home runs and 6 RBI.  The Brewers are in excellent current form, hitting .309 while averaging 6.4 runs during their past seven games overall.

Milwaukee will start Jimmy Nelson in this game.  Nelson is in good current form; he is a perfect 3-0 with a solid 1.07 WHIP over his last three starts.  Nelson held the Dodgers to just 4 runs and 14 hits in two starts against them last season.  Los Angeles is struggling on offense, batting just .236 as a team in their past seven games.  Milwaukee’s bullpen is 6-2 with a terrific 2.65 ERA and an excellent 1.19 WHIP on the road while converting 10 of their 11 save opportunities.  The Brewers are 4-2 against the Dodgers in their last six meetings and Milwaukee presents solid value in this game tonight.

9* Play BREWERS (+1.5 runline).

Houston will play Game 2 of their 4-game series in Cleveland on Tuesday night after a 9-4 win last night.  The Astros will start Vincent Velasquez who has been terrific in two road starts this season.  He has allowed just 1 earned run on 5 hits in 8.1 innings of work.  Velasquez has given up just 7 total runs and 12 hits in his last three outings overall with a solid 9/2 strikeout/walk ratio in those games.  Velasquez will face a Cleveland offense that is in poor current form as they’ve scored just 7 total runs over their last three games.  The Indians are just 15-24 at home where they only average 4.1 runs per game this season.  Houston’s bullpen has been outstanding this season as they own a 2.61 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, so Velasquez has plenty of support on the backend.

Cleveland will start Corey Kluber who comes into this game in poor current form; he has allowed 11 runs in his last three starts for a weak 4.09 ERA.  All three of those games ended with either a one run win or a one run loss for the Indians.  Kluber already lost to the Astros this season after giving up 2 runs in 7.1 innings of work.  Jose Altuve (3-10) and Marwin Gonzalez (3-5) have good numbers versus Kluber.  Houston has scored 4 runs or more in six of their last seven games, and in seven of their last nine games overall.  The Astros are batting .287 in their past seven games (6.0 runs per game) and they are 32-18 versus right-handed starters while averaging 5.1 runs in those games this season.  Houston presents solid value on the +1.5 runline in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play ASTROS (+1.5 runline).

Arizona will host Los Angeles for the third and final game of their series on Wednesday night.  The Diamondbacks will start Robbie Ray who is just 2-3, but has a terrific 1.98 ERA and an outstanding 1.02 WHIP in his six starts this season.  He also has a solid 28/9 strikeout/walk ratio in 36.1 innings of work.  Ray had a great outing in Los Angeles earlier this season; he allowed just 2 runs on four hits in 6.2 innings of work.  The Dodgers have struggled against left-handed starters this season.  In fact, Los Angles is just 6-8 versus lefties while hitting .227 and only scoring 3.2 runs per game.  The Dodgers’ offense has also struggled on the road this year where they are only 17-22 and averaging just 3.9 runs with a .241 team batting average, compared to 27-13 at home where they average 4.7 runs per game with a .267 average.

Los Angeles will start Brett Anderson and he has not pitched well on the road this season; he has won just two of his seven away starts.  Anderson has already faced Arizona three times this season.  He has allowed 7 earned runs on 18 hits in 17 innings of work.  All three of those games were decided by exactly one run with the Diamondback winning the lone game in Arizona.  Anderson has struggled with the Arizona lineup, especially Paul Goldschmidt who is hitting .636 (7-for-11) with 2 home runs and 5 RBI’s.  Overall, the Diamondbacks are hitting .273 versus left-handed starters this season and Arizona’s offense is in good current form as they are averaging 5.1 runs per game during the past week.  Arizona presents solid value on the run line in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play DIAMONDBACKS (+1.5 runline).

Chicago and Minnesota will wrap-up their 3-game series on Wednesday afternoon.  The White Sox will start Chris Sale in this game.  He's had issues with the Twins as they’ve handed him two of his three losses this season.  Sale has allowed 13 runs and 14 hits in his last two games against Minnesota with a terrible 9.00 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.  Brian Dozier (8-29), Torii Hunter (10-37), Joe Mauer (8-27), Trevor Plouffe (9-30), and Kurt Suzuki (5-16) all have good numbers against Sale.  Minnesota is 17-10 versus left-handed starters while averaging 5.5 runs per game this season.  Chicago’s bullpen is 3-6 with a poor 4.87 ERA and 1.73 WHIP on the road, so Sale has little support on the backend.

Minnesota will start Phil Hughes in this game.  Hughes is in good current form right now, allowing just 7 total runs in his last three starts with a 2.91 ERA and an excellent 0.92 WHIP during that span.  Hughes has pitched well in two games against the White Sox this season, holding them to just 5 runs in 13 innings of work.  Gordon Beckham (2-18), Adam Eaton (3-18), Tyler Flowers (2-10), Avisail Garcia (1-9), and Conor Gillaspie (2-12) have all struggled against Hughes.  Chicago is 13-24 on the road, and they are just 12-18 in daytime games, averaging only 3.3 runs per game.  The White Sox have struggled offensively this season, averaging just 3.4 runs per game overall and they have scored 3 runs or less in nine of their past ten games.  We’ll back Minnesota in this game on Wednesday afternoon.

9* Play TWINS (+1.5 runline).

Cleveland and Chicago will play the second and final game of their mini series on Thursday night.  The Indians will start Danny Salazar who is coming off a loss in Detroit in his last start.  Salazar will be facing a Chicago team that is in good current form.  The Cubs are 7-3 during their past ten games, and their offense is averaging 5.1 runs per game on the road this season.  Cleveland’s bullpen was beaten up yesterday as they had to clean up a 17-0 loss to the Cubs; a pair of position players had to hit the mound for Cleveland.

Chicago will start Jason Hammel who is 4-2 with a solid 2.89 ERA and an outstanding 0.92 WHIP on the road this season.  Hammel has an incredible 54/6 K/BB ratio in seven starts away from Chicago.  Cleveland is only 12-19 at home this season, and they are just 3-6 SU over their last nine games overall.  The Indians’ offense has only scored 12 total runs during their past five games, including scoring 1 run or less in three of those past five games.  There is solid value with the Chicago Cubs in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play CUBS (+1.5 runline).

Atlanta will host Boston on Thursday night.  The Braves will start Shelby Miller who is 2-1 with a tremendous 1.59 ERA and a sterling 0.97 WHIP in five home starts for Atlanta this season.  Miller has been able to harness his control at home as he’s only issued nine walks in 34 innings of work.  Miller held the Red Sox to just 1 run and four hits in seven innings pitched at home last season as a member of the Cardinals.  Boston’s lineup has struggled all year long, especially on the road where they are only averaging 3.3 runs per game with a weak .224 team batting average, both of which are their worst offensive subsets on the season.

Boston will start Clay Buchholz in this game.  Buchholz has allowed 8 runs and 18 hits in his last two starts.  Both of those outings came at home against Toronto and Oakland.  Last year, Buchholz gave up 6 runs and four hits in three innings pitched to the Braves.  Atlanta’s offense is in good current form as they’ve scored 4 runs or more in five straight games, and in eight of their last nine games overall, batting over .290 as a team during that span.  Atlanta presents solid value in this home game on Thursday night.

9* Play BRAVES (+1.5 runline).

Houston will conclude their 2-game series in Colorado on Thursday afternoon.  The Astros will start Collin McHugh who is in terrible current form.  McHugh has an ugly 8.44 ERA and a horrendous 1.69 WHIP in his last three starts.  McHugh has allowed 15 earned runs on 22 hits over his last 16 innings of work.  He has never pitched in hitter friendly Coor's Field, and that is not a good thing since McHugh has been getting shelled lately.  Colorado’s offense is averaging 5.2 runs per game at home this season, so they will have success against McHugh in this game.

Colorado will start David Hale in this game.  Hale is a perfect 2-0 for the Rockies at home this season.  Hale has an impressive 14/0 K/BB ratio in 19.2 innings pitched at home.  Houston’s offense is only hitting .248 in daytime games, and they’ve scored just 22 total runs in their last seven road games.  The Astros scored 2 runs or less in five of those seven games.  Colorado presents solid value at home in this game on Thursday afternoon.

9* Play ROCKIES (+1.5 runline).

Texas will host the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday night.  The Rangers will start Chi Chi Gonzalez in this game.  Gonzalez has been fantastic in three starts, allowing just 1 earned run and 13 hits in 21.2 innings of work.  In one home start, Gonzalez gave up just 2 hits in 5.2 scoreless innings pitched against the Red Sox.  The Dodgers are just 12-17 on the road where their offense has its weakest subsets this season, averaging just 4.0 runs per game with a .248 batting average.  Los Angeles has scored just 10 total runs in their last four games combined.

Los Angeles will start Brett Anderson who is 1-4 with a terrible 6.62 ERA and a horrendous 1.82 WHIP in seven career starts against Texas.  Anderson also comes into this game in poor current form; he is 0-3 in his last three starts while giving up 17 hits and 7 walks in 18.2 innings of work.  Elvis Andrus (4-15) and Mitch Moreland (2-5) both have good numbers against the southpaw.  The Texas offense is averaging 4.8 runs per game at home this season with a .267 batting average.  The Rangers are in good current form with a 3-1 record in their past four games with 24 runs scored, so they present solid value at home in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play RANGERS (+1.5 runline).

The New York Mets will host the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday night.  The Mets will start Matt Harvey in this game.  Harvey is in poor current form; he has allowed 13 runs and 21 hits over his last three games.  He gave up six home runs in those three games as well.  The righty will now be facing the hottest offense in baseball.  Toronto’s has averaged an incredible 7.6 runs during their past twelve games, scoring at least 5 runs or more in ten of those past twelve games.

Toronto will start Scott Copeland who will be making his second start of the season.  In his first outing, Copeland gave up just 1 run and six hits in seven innings pitched at home to the Miami Marlins.  The Mets’ offense has been mediocre this season, only averaging 3.9 runs per game.  New York’s offense is even worse in night games where they score just 3.4 runs per game with a .232 batting average.  Toronto is 11-1 in their past twelve games and they present solid value tonight.

9* Play BLUE JAYS (+1.5 runline).

Miami will host Colorado for the third game of this four-game series on Saturday afternoon.  The Marlins will start Mat Latos who will be making his return off the disabled list.  Latos is 0-2 with an ugly 10.18 ERA and a poor 1.92 WHIP in five home starts this season.  Overall, Latos has been terrible this season; he is 1-4 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in nine starts for Miami.  The righty will be facing a Colorado offense that is hitting .291 while scoring 5.1 runs per game in the daytime this season.  Latos will not have the stamina to go deep in this game, so a poor Marlins’ bullpen that has 13 losses and 9 blown saves will provide little support on the backend.

Colorado will start David Hale in this game.  Hale is a perfect 2-0 in three starts for the Rockies this season; he beat the Cardinals and Giants.  Hale owns an impressive 14/0 K/BB ratio in 19.2 innings of work this season.  Miami is a woeful 18-31 versus right-handed starters while scoring just 3.5 runs per game.  The Marlins are only 9-14 in daytime games as well.  Colorado’s bullpen has converted 85% (11-of-13) of their save opportunities on the road this season, so Hale has plenty of support on the backend.  We’ll back Colorado in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play ROCKIES (+1.5 runline).

Arizona begins a three-game series in San Francisco tonight.  The Diamondbacks will start Chase Anderson who is 1-1 with a solid 3.12 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in his 11 starts this season.  Anderson has been even better on the road where he owns a terrific 2.97 ERA and 1.21 WHIP away from Arizona.  Overall, Anderson has 47 strikeouts to just 15 walks on the year.  San Francisco’s offense has struggled at home all season.  The Giants are hitting just .257 as a team at home with just 3.2 runs per game, compared to .288 on the road with 5.2 runs per game.  Arizona’s bullpen owns a solid 3.19 ERA and 1.27 WHIP on the road, so Anderson has plenty of support on the backend.

San Francisco will start Madison Bumgarner in this game tonight.  Bumgarner is not in good current form as he has allowed 11 runs in his last three starts while earning a poor 4.87 ERA.  Bumgarner lost 7-6 at home against Arizona back on April 16th as a -170 favorite when he allowed 4 runs, including 2 home runs, in seven innings of work.  Nick Ahmed (4-10), Ender Inciarte (6-15), and AJ Pollock (9-32) all have good numbers against the southpaw.  Arizona is 3-1 in San Francisco this season, so there is solid value with the rested Diamondbacks in this game, especially since the Giants are flying back home after a late game in New York last night.

10* Play DIAMONDBACKS (+1.5 runline).

Golden State played an inexplicably bad game on Tuesday night despite being in a terrific bounce back spot.  The Warriors’ shooting woes continued in Game 3 as they only hit 40% (36-90) from the field and 35% (12-34) from three-point land.  Golden State did not get to the free throw line much either, and when they did, they hit just 58% (7-12).  That’s back-to-back poor offensive performances for one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA.  There’s a high probability that Golden State’s poor shooting will reverse in Game 4 tonight, and we’ll finally see the team that dominated the league this season.  The Warriors are now 13-5 SU in the playoffs, but they only scored 91 points in Game 3.  It was just the seventh time in eighteen playoff games in which the Warriors scored less than 100 points.  Golden State’s starters only combined to score 52 total points in Game 3 despite averaging nearly 78 points per game this season.  Overall, Golden State played one of their worst games in the entire playoffs, and a big bounce back performance is expected, especially from a team that is 80-20 SU and has not lost three straight games all season.

Cleveland has played much better than expected in the first three games considering their limited team.  The Cavaliers are without Kyrie Irvin and Kevin Love, so they are now basically a one-man team with LeBron James, and the loss of the other key players has definitely hurt their offensive options.  In Game 1, James scored 44 of Cleveland’s 100 points.  In Game 2, he scored 39 of Cleveland’s 95 points.  In Game 3, he scored 40 of Cleveland’s 96 points.  So 123 of Cleveland’s 291 total points have come from one player; that’s 42% of the team’s total points.  That type of point distribution is difficult to achieve going forward, especially since role players who have over-achieved are likely to regress; Dellavedova is battling fatigue and cramps, while Shumpert has a shoulder injury.

Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, eight of Golden State’s thirteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ thirteen playoff wins have come by an average of +12.2 points per game with their five road playoff wins coming by a whopping +16 points per game.  Golden State also has the #1 defense in the NBA based on efficiency metrics, so they own the edge over Cleveland at both ends of the court.  Golden State is still the better overall team despite being down in this series, so we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in a good bounce-back spot in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Colorado will wrap-up their 3-game series against St. Louis on Wednesday afternoon.  The Rockies will start Chad Bettis in this game.  Bettis has allowed just 4 runs and 13 hits in his last three starts while earning a terrific 1.21 ERA and a tremendous 0.81 WHIP in those outings.  Bettis has not lost in three games at home while striking out 17 batters and only walking five.  The Cardinals’ offense is struggling right now as they’ve scored just 12 total runs during their past five games.

St. Louis will start Carlos Martinez who will be making his first start in Coor's Field.  Martinez has made one relief appearance in Colorado, giving up 4 runs and five hits in just over one inning of work.  Colorado is 12-8 in daytime games while hitting .293 and averaging 5.3 runs in those games.  The Rockies’ offense is in outstanding current form as they’ve scored 27 total runs in their last four games.  Colorado presents solid value in this game on Wednesday afternoon.

9* Play ROCKIES (+1.5 runline).

Arizona will play in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Tuesday night.  The Diamondbacks will start Robbie Ray who has allowed just 1 run and 11 hits in 11 innings pitched as a starter this season.  The southpaw has nine strikeouts to just one walk.  Ray has not a faced a single hitter in the Dodgers’ lineup in his short time in the Majors, and that gives him a nice advantage in this game.  Los Angeles is only hitting .216 while scoring 2.9 runs per game versus left-handed starters this season.  The Dodger’s offense is not in good current form as they’ve scored 2 runs or less in four of their past five games.

Los Angeles will start Carlos Frias in this game.  Frias is in poor current form as he has allowed 16 runs and 27 hits in his last three starts.  He had just six strikeouts to seven walks in those outings.  Overall, Frias owns a poor 4.50 ERA and a terrible 1.55 WHIP in seven starts for the Dodgers this season.  The Diamondbacks’s offense is averaging 4.7 runs per game, and they have crushed mediocre pitching all season.  The Diamondbacks present solid value in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play DIAMONDBACKS (+1.5 runline).

The NBA Finals will relocate to Cleveland for Game 3 on Tuesday night.  The series is tied at one game apiece after the teams split two overtime games at Golden State.  The Warriors are now 13-4 SU in the playoffs after their home loss in Game 2.  Golden State played their third worst game on offense in the playoffs as they only scored 93 points despite the game going into overtime.  It was just the sixth time in 17 playoff games in which the Warriors scored less than 100 points.  Golden State shot just 39.8% (33-83) from the field and a horrendous 22.9% (8-35) from three-point land.  Stephen Curry had a rare off game as he only scored 19 points on an ugly 21.7% (5-23) shooting performance from the field, including a terrible 13.3% (2-15) shooting from three-point land.  Clay Thompson was also terrible from beyond the arc as he only shot 33.3% (4-12) from three-point land.  Combined, Curry and Thompson shot a woeful 22.2% (6-27) from three-point land.  That duo is too good to shoot that bad again, so we expect big numbers from Curry and Thompson, especially from beyond the arc.  Overall, Golden State played one of their worst games in the entire playoffs, and a big bounce back performance is expected, especially from a team that is 80-19 SU on the season.

Cleveland played much better than expected in Games 1 and 2 considering their limited team.  The Cavaliers are without Kyrie Irvin and Kevin Love, so they are basically a one-man team with LeBron James now, and the loss of the other players has definitely hurt their offense.  In Game 1, James scored 44 of Cleveland’s 100 points.  In Game 2, he scored 39 of Cleveland’s 95 points.  So 83 of Cleveland’s 195 total points have come from one player; that’s 42.5% of the team’s total points.  That type of point distribution cannot continue, especially since the performance of the player is likely to regress after back-to-back perfect games.  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, eight of Golden State’s thirteen playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ thirteen playoff wins have come by an average of +12.2 points per game with their five road playoff wins coming by a whopping 16 points per game.  Golden State also has the #1 defense in the NBA based on efficiency metrics, so they own the edge over Cleveland at both ends of the court.  Golden State is the better overall team, and they will be extra focused after their home loss, so we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Tuesday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Chicago and Houston will play Game 2 of their 3-game series on Tuesday night.  The White Sox will start Carlos Rodon who will make his second start against the Astros this season.  Rodon allowed only 1 earned run and eight hits in 6.1 innings pitched in Houston back on May 29th.  Houston’s offense comes into this game in poor current form as they’ve scored just 13 total runs over their last five games, going 0-5 SU.  Houston is only averaging 3.2 runs per game against left-handed starters this season with a .225 team batting average, so they should struggle against Rodon in this game.

Houston will start Dallas Keuchel tonight.  He has been a weaker pitcher on the road this season.  His lone loss this year came on the road when he gave up 4 runs to the Orioles in Baltimore.  Keuchel's last trip to Chicago came last year when he allowed 4 runs and 12 hits in just five innings of work.  The White Sox are a stronger team at home this season, and they are coming in off a solid 3-1 win over the Astros last night.  We’ll back the White Sox in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play WHITE SOX (+1.5 runline).

Los Angels will host St. Louis on Saturday night.  The Dodgers will start Clayton Kershaw who is just 5-9 with a poor 4.13 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 19 career starts against the Cardinals.  In his last three games against St. Louis, Kershaw has allowed 14 runs and 18 hits, taking the loss in two of those three games.  Peter Bourjos (4-11), Matt Carpenter (5-18), Pete Kozma (4-5), and Yadier Molina (6-22) have all hit Kershaw hard.  The Cardinals are 37-18 in all games this season, including 10-2 in their past twelve games which include back-to-back wins versus the Dodgers the past two days.

St. Louis will start Jaime Garcia who has pitched well for the Cardinals.  Garcia owns a terrific 2.70 ERA and an outstanding 1.05 WHIP this season.  Garcia has allowed just 7 runs and 16 hits in 20 innings of work this season.  The Dodgers are a poor 2-6 versus left-handed starters this season, averaging just 3.0 runs and hitting only .211 in those games.  This should be a low-scoring game (O/U 6), so there is excellent value with St. Louis as a +1.5 runline underdog on Saturday night.

10* Play CARDINALS (+1.5 runline).

Atlanta will host Pittsburgh for a 3-game series beginning on Friday night.  The Braves will start Williams Perez in this game.  Perez has allowed just 2 runs with 17 strikeouts in 18 innings of work this season.  Perez is coming off an impressive 8-0 win at San Francisco, and he faced the Dodgers in the prior game, so he is now taking a step-down in offensive class against the Pirates.  Pittsburgh is just 14-15 on the road, and they are only hitting .239 in night games this season.  Atlanta’s bullpen has blown only one save opportunity at home, so Perez has good support on the backend should he need it.

Pittsburgh will start Charlie Morton tonight.  He is 0-2 with a weak 1.43 WHIP against the Braves in his career.  Nick Markakis (2-4), Kelly Johnson (2-5), and Freddie Freeman (1-3) have good numbers against Morton.  Atlanta’s offense is in tremendous current form as they are hitting .274 while averaging 5.6 runs during their past seven games.  Pittsburgh’s bullpen is just 4-11 this season, including 1-8 on the road, so Morton does not have good support on the backend.  Atlanta presents solid value at home in this game on Friday night.

9* Play BRAVES (+1.5 runline).

Cleveland and Golden State will begin the NBA Finals on Thursday night.  The Cavaliers are 12-2 SU and 8-6 ATS in the playoffs so far.  The Warriors are 12-3 SU and just 7-8 ATS in the playoffs.  So both teams have been dominating, but neither team has been strong against the pointspread.  In Golden State’s defense, they were double-digit favorites in seven of their fifteen playoff games; they went just 2-5 ATS in those games.  So the Warriors are actually a respectable 5-3 ATS in competitively priced games.  Golden State also played the much tougher opponents to reach the Finals.  They played the Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Rockets who went a combined 156-90 SU during the regular season.  Cleveland had a much easier path to the Finals.  The Cavaliers played the Celtics, Bulls, and Hawks who went a combined 150-96 during the regular season.  The numbers alone look close, but keep in mind Atlanta won 40% (60 wins) of those 150 total wins, so Cleveland had easier opponents in the first two rounds of the playoffs.  Cleveland’s defense has been terrific in the playoffs, but remember they played a pair of weak offenses in the first two rounds, and then faced an undermanned Atlanta team that was missing their best 3-point shooter (Kyle Korver), and one of their better overall players in Al Horford at times.  So the Cavaliers’ defensive numbers are skewed, and they will now take a monumental step-up in offensive class against the Warriors in this series.  In one regular season meeting at Golden State, the Cavaliers gave up 112 points to the Warriors on 50% shooting (43-86) from the field.

Golden State was the best team throughout the regular season; the Warriors went 67-15 SU with the next closest team having 60 wins (Hawks).  Golden State has played some clunkers in the playoffs, but when they play their ‘A’ game, the Warriors have won big.  In fact, eight of Golden State’s twelve playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ seven home playoff wins have come by an average of +7.3 points per game with four of those wins coming by 10 points or more.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 46-3 SU at home this season, including an easy win over Cleveland that came by 18 points (112-94).  LeBron James did miss that game, but the Cavaliers had a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love still available.  The Warriors own an outstanding +13.5 point differential on their home court where they average 111.2 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  Golden State also has the #1 defense in the NBA based on efficiency metrics, so they own the edge over Cleveland at both ends of the court.

This year's NBA Finals is a great team (Warriors) versus a great player (LeBron), especially since reports indicate that Kyrie Irving is still bothered by knee tendonitis, while Kevin Love remains out.  This team vs. player mentality was evident when Golden State held a dominating 67-28 assists edge in the two regular season meetings.  The team aspect was also evident in last year's NBA Finals when the Spurs (team) went 4-1 SU/ATS and defeated the Heat (LeBron) easily in five games.  Golden State is the better overall team, so we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

The Chicago White Sox will play the second game of this three-game series in Texas on Wednesday night.  The Rangers are in outstanding current form as they’ve won four straight games thanks to a smoking hot offense.  Texas has scored 34 runs in those past four games with Joey Gallo and Josh Hamilton making the Texas offense one of the best in baseball.  The White Sox will start Chris Sale who has a weak 4.38 ERA in his four road starts this season.  In five career starts against the Rangers, Sale owns a poor 4.81 ERA.  Texas is averaging 4.7 runs per game against left-handed starters, so they should have plenty of success against Sale in this game tonight.

Texas will start Nick Martinez who is 4-1 with a terrific 2.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP this season.  Martinez has allowed just 19 runs in 62 innings of work with an 8-2 team record.  Chicago may not have Jose Abreu in their lineup again on Wednesday as he continues to deal with a finger injury.  Without Abreu, the White Sox are limited offensively as they simply do not have enough weapons to produce runs consistently.  Chicago is just 11-17 on the road this season where they average only 3.7 runs per game.  Texas is red-hot offensively and they present solid value at home in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play RANGERS (+1.5 runline).

The New York Yankees will play the final game of this three-game series in Seattle on Wednesday afternoon.  The Yankees will start Masahiro Tanaka who is making his return to the Majors after spending some time in the minors.  Tanaka made two rehab starts; he gave up 3 runs and six hits in six innings of work in those two outings.  The righty struck out six while walking two.  Obviously with only six innings pitched, Tanaka’s endurance is not there yet, so it is highly unlikely that he will be able to pitch deep into this game.

Seattle will start Taijuan Walker who is coming off one of his best starts of the season.  Walker allowed just two hits in eight innings pitched against the Indians in a 2-1 Seattle win last Friday.  The righty has a terrific 2.22 ERA and an outstanding 0.90 WHIP in his four home starts this season.  Walker has never faced New York as a starter, so that gives him a nice edge in this game.  This is the Yankees' last game of a West Coast road trip, so their lineup may be thin as they rest some starters.  Seattle’s bullpen has been solid at home (3.13 ERA and 1.30 WHIP), so Walker has plenty of support on the backend.  We’ll back Seattle in this game at home on Wednesday afternoon.

9* Play MARINERS (+1.5 runline).

Los Angeles will go for the four-game home sweep when they host Detroit on Sunday Night Baseball.  The Angels will start Matt Shoemaker who is in good current form entering this game.  Shoemaker has allowed 9 runs and 15 hits over his last three starts with eight of those runs coming in one start against the Blue Jays.  Shoemaker was excellent in his other two recent starts, allowing just 1 runs and 7 hits in 14 innings of work.  Overall, he has an outstanding 0.90 WHIP in his past three outings with a terrific 17/3 K/BB ratio during his past 20 innings pitched.  Shoemaker has pitched better than his overall ERA would suggest this season with a solid 1.17 WHIP in his nine starts.  The right-hander dominated Detroit last season, allowing just 3 hits and no runs in seven innings of work in route to a 4-0 home win.

Detroit will start David Price in this game tonight.  Price will face a Los Angeles team that he has struggled against.  Price has lost both of his starts versus the Angels in Los Angeles the past two years, allowing 12 runs and 22 hits in those two games.  Erick Aybar (6-23), Chris Ianetta (5-15), and Albert Pujols (3-11) all have good numbers against Price.  The Angels have dominated this series as of late, going a perfect 6-0 against the Tigers in their last six meetings, winning those games by a combined 30-10 score.  We’ll back the Angels at home in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play ANGELS (+1.5 runline).

Detroit will begin a 4-game series in Los Angeles against the Angels on Thursday night.  The Tigers will start Buck Farmer who will make his first start of the 2015 season.  Farmer went 5-1 with a terrific 2.98 ERA in nine starts for Triple-A Toledo.  He allowed just 41 hits in 51.1 innings of work in those outings.  The righty made a couple of starts last season, so he won’t be too overwhelmed in this game.  The Angels’ offense is not in good current form right now as they’ve scored 12 total runs over their last five games.

Los Angeles will start C.J. Wilson in this game.  Wilson has allowed 8 runs and 17 hits in his last two starts.  Wilson has struggled with the Tigers as he owns a terrible 5.74 ERA and an awful 1.66 WHIP in eight career starts against them.  Yoenis Cespedes (6-18), Rajai Davis (8-26), Ian Kinsler (8-21), and JD Martinez (3-10) all hit the southpaw well.  The Tigers are 9-3 in games started by left-handed starters this season.  Detroit presents some good value in this game, so we’ll back the Tigers on the run line on Thursday night.  

10* Play TIGERS (+1.5 runline).

Chicago and Baltimore will play a double-header on Thursday.  This is a play on the Orioles in Game 1.  The White Sox will start Chris Sale who is looking for his first career win against Baltimore in three starts.  Sale has a terrible 5.06 ERA and an ugly 1.94 WHIP in those games.  Overall, the southpaw has a horrendous 6.35 ERA in three road starts this season.  Adam Jones (3-8), Caleb Joseph (2-4), Steve Pearce (2-6), and Delmon Young (5-15) have good numbers versus Sale.  Baltimore is hitting .293 and averaging 5.7 runs per game in eight games against left-handed starters.  The Orioles are averaging 4.9 runs per game at home this season.  

Baltimore will start Tyler Wilson who is making his first Major League start in this game.  In two games out of the bullpen, Wilson has thrown just two innings while only giving up 1 run.  Wilson will get to face a slumping Chicago team that is just 2-7 over their last nine games.  Chicago’s offense is struggling mightily right now as they’ve scored just 29 total runs over their last ten games.  Baltimore is 10-4 versus Chicago in their last 14 meetings in this series, including 6-2 at home.  We’ll back the Orioles on the run line in this game on Thursday afternoon. 

9* Play ORIOLES (+1.5 runline).

Houston avoided the sweep with their 128-115 home win in Game 4 on Monday night.  The Rockets were actually in a decent spot to play well in that game as they were off an embarrassing 35-point (115-80) home loss in Game 3.  Houston came to play as they shot an incredible 56.6% (43-76) from the field and a terrific 53.1% (17-32) from three-point land.  But the Rockets must now head back to Golden State for Game 5, and off such a perfect game, we expect major regression from the Rockets tonight.  In their four regular season meetings against the Warriors, Houston’s offense played awful offensive basketball.  In fact, the Rockets only ranked #22 in offensive efficiency against Golden State’s defense in those games.  It wasn’t a surprise that the Rockets went 0-4 SU in those games, and it’s a main reason why Houston is just 1-7 SU versus the Warriors this season.  Golden State has the #1 defense based on efficiency metrics, and off such a poor performance in Game 4, we expect the Warriors to bounce back with a dominating defensive effort tonight.  Houston has lost seven games in the playoffs, and five of those losses have come by 12, 16, 25, 33, and 35 points.

Golden State did not play up to their level in Game 4, but off that loss, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Warriors will be much better from the opening tip in Game 5, and that should lead to an easy blowout win by Golden State.  The Warriors return home off a road loss, and they went 6-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in that situation this season.  Their average win in those games came by +14.7 points.  In the playoffs, Golden State’s average win has come by +12.5 points per game.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 45-3 SU at home this season where they own an outstanding +13.5 point differential, averaging 111.4 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.  Houston’s defense has allowed 116.7 points on average in their seven road playoff games, so the Warriors’ offense should score at will in this game.  Houston is set to regress as teams that trail 0-3 in a series and win Game 4 are just 13-34 SU in Game 5.  Golden State is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals on Wednesday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Atlanta played terrible basketball in both games on their home court, and it was the first time all season in which they lost back-to-back home games.  The Hawks came to play in Game 3 in Cleveland despite missing starter Kyle Korver.  The Hawks also had to play without Al Horford who got ejected for a flagrant foul.  Atlanta was quite impressive in taking the Cavaliers into overtime considering their limited lineup.  There is some concern with the way the Hawks lost Game 3 and being down 3-0 in this series, but these quotes say this Class-A team isn’t going to give up.  “We know we can compete at a high level,” Hawks point guard Jeff Teague said.  “We know we can beat this team.”  Shelvin Mack added: “You can’t judge three games over 82 games. Our record speaks for itself.”  Overall, the Hawks have won 68 games this season, and their offense ranked #2 in efficiency against Cleveland’s defense this season.  Atlanta’s offense averaged 109 points per game against Cleveland in the regular season, so we expect a repeat performance of Game 3 from the Hawks tonight.  

Cleveland is up 3-0 in this series thanks to their three-point shooting.  Cleveland has hit a combined 36 three’s in the first three games compared to Atlanta only making 21 three’s in those games.  That’s a difference of 45 points in favor of Cleveland, and the major difference in this series considering the Cavaliers three wins have come by a combined 23 points.  Cleveland’s three-point shooting is due for regression in Game 4 while Atlanta’s three-point shooting is due for a positive reversal, and that alone makes this game much closer.  Cleveland sat Kyrie Irving in Games 2 and 3 with a knee injury, and it appears they will keep him out of tonight’s game, especially since they are up 3-0 in the series.  LeBron James scored 37 points on 37 shot attempts in Game 3, but he was clearly fatigued after that performance.  He is also dealing with a bunch of nagging injuries, so he may regress tonight.  Despite losing the first three games, Atlanta is still an excellent team at an inflated price, so we’ll back the Hawks in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Tuesday night.                 

10* Play HAWKS (+).

Atlanta will begin a 10-game West Coast road trip in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Monday night.  The Braves will send Williams Perez to the mound for his second Major League start.  Perez held the Rays to just 1 run and six hits in five innings of work in his debut.  He struck out seven batters while only walking one in that strong outing.  The Dodgers’ offense is struggling right now as they’ve scored just 9 total runs over their last eight games; their lineup is absolutely putrid right now.

Los Angeles will start Brett Anderson in this game.  Anderson will face an Atlanta offense that has scored 16 total runs in their last three road games.  Overall, the Braves are averaging a respectable 4.2 runs per game this season.  Alberto Callaspo (4-11), Nick Markakis (2-3), and AJ Pierzynski (3-8) all have good numbers against Anderson.  There is solid value with Atlanta on the +1.5 run line in what should be a low-scoring game with a posted Over/Under line of just 7 total runs, especially since the Dodgers' offense is playing so poorly and scoring so few runs right now.

9* Play BRAVES (+1.5 runline).

Atlanta played terrible basketball in both games on their home court, and it was the first time all season in which they lost back-to-back home games.  The Hawks will now play in Cleveland with their season on the line, and Atlanta should bring a better effort tonight.  The pointspread is greatly inflated now because of the recent results, and the absence of Kyle Korver who was lost for the rest of the season after injuring his ankle in Game 2.  The oddsmakers have adjusted this line nearly 12 points from the previous game, and that is way too much.  Atlanta’s offense scored just 89 and 82 points in the first two games on 42.9% (67-156) shooting from the field and 20.4% (10-49) shooting from three-point land.  Overall, the Hawks’ offense ranked #2 in efficiency against Cleveland’s defense this season, so the Hawks’ performances so far have been well below normal.  Atlanta’s offense averaged 109 points per game against Cleveland in four regular season meetings, so their terrible offensive output in back-to-back playoff games is an anomaly that is likely to reverse in Game 3 tonight.

Cleveland returns home after two above average performances in Atlanta.  The Cavaliers won both games because of terrific three-point shooting.  Cleveland hit a combined 22 three-point shots in the first two games compared to Atlanta only making 10 three-pointers in those games.  That’s a difference of 36 points in favor of Cleveland, and the major difference in this series considering the Cavaliers two wins have come by a combined 20 points.  Hot and cold three-point shooting is the most random variable in basketball and Cleveland’s three-point shooting is due for a regression in Game 3 while Atlanta’s three-point shooting is due for a positive reversal, and that alone makes this game much closer than the inflated pointspread suggests.  Cleveland sat Kyrie Irving in Game 2 with a knee injury, and it appears they will keep him out of tonight’s game, especially since they are up 2-0 in the series.  Irving is listed as a game-time decision, so he may play, but insiders sound convinced that he won’t be on the court.  Matthew Dellavedova played fantastic in Irving’s place, but he also attempted the second most shots in his career.  He is also due to regress in this game, so the potential absence of Irving is more likely to have a major impact this time as compared to Friday.  Despite losing the first two games, Atlanta is still an excellent team that owns 68 wins this season.  This is a solid spot to take the Hawks at an inflated price, so we’ll back Atlanta in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Sunday night.

10* Play HAWKS (+).

Cleveland stole Game 1 in Atlanta on Wednesday night.  The Cavaliers won that game 97-89, but they hardly played a winning game.  Cleveland shot just 44% (37-84) from the field and 38.5% (10-26) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers only hit 65% (13-20) from the free throw line.  That type of performance should not win a playoff game, especially on the road against the best team in the conference.  LeBron James played his typical game, scoring 31 points on 46.2% (12-26) shooting from the field.  Cleveland also got a terrific game from an unlikely source as J.R. Smith scored 28 points off the bench on 62.5% (10-16) shooting from the field, including an incredible 66.7% (8-12) shooting from three-point land.  It’s highly unlikely Smith will repeat that performance tonight, so the scoring duties will all be on LeBron.  Cleveland may also be without Kyrie Irving in this game because of a knee injury.  Irving said he doesn’t “have it right now” referring to his explosiveness and ability to get to the rim.  Cleveland is just 1-2 in Atlanta this season after winning Game 1, so it’s hard to imagine the Cavaliers beating the Hawks on their home court in back-to-back games.

Atlanta’s offense was terrible in Game 1.  The Hawks shot just 44.2% (34-77) from the field, and a horrendous 17.4% (4-23) from three-point land.  Atlanta’s offense is too good to play that bad again, especially on their home court.  Overall, the Hawks’ offense ranked #2 in efficiency against Cleveland’s defense this season, so the Hawks will shoot a much better percentage in Game 2.  The Hawks have been fantastic at home this season where they are 40-8 overall and own an impressive +7.8 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 102.5 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  The Cavaliers are allowing 99.7 points per game on the road this season, and since the Hawks’ offense averages 105 points per game against Cleveland, we expect a big bounce back effort from Atlanta.  We’ll back the Hawks in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Friday night.                 

9* Play HAWKS (-).

Seattle’s road trip will continue with a 3-game series in Toronto beginning on Friday night.  The Mariners will start Felix Hernandez who is coming off his first loss of the season.  Hernandez has not been as powerful on the road with only 13 strikeouts in three starts this season.  Hernandez is just 5-6 with a poor 4.91 ERA and a weak 1.34 WHIP in his 13 career starts against the Blue Jays.  Last year, Hernandez got shelled for 8 runs in Toronto; the Mariners lost that game 10-2.

Toronto will start Marco Estrada in this game tonight.  Estrada is improving after a rough start to the year.  Overall, Estrada has a 3.55 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in his nine appearances this season.  Seattle is not in good current form as they just lost two of three games in Baltimore, and overall they are just 7-12 on the road this season.  Toronto’s offense scored 23 runs at home in their last series against the Angels, so the Blue Jays come into this game in good current form.  We’ll back Toronto on the run line in this game on Friday night.

9* Play BLUE JAYS (+1.5 runline).

Cincinnati will begin a 3-game series in Cleveland on Friday night.  The Reds will start Mike Leake who is 2-1 with a terrific 1.74 ERA and an outstanding 0.71 WHIP in four road starts this season.  Leake has good numbers against many Cleveland hitters, including Michael Bourn (5-23), Michael Brantley (1-10), Lonnie Chisenhall (1-6), Jason Kipnis (1-9), and Carlos Santana (1-9).  Cleveland is just 6-12 at home this season, and the Indians are only 1-2 in interleague play so far.

Cleveland will start Carlos Carrasco who has lost two straight starts coming into this game.  The righty has a terrible 4.98 ERA overall, and an ugly 7.10 ERA in his three home starts this season.  Carrasco has not been the same since being hit by a line drive back in April, and he’s simply way overpriced in this game.  Cincinnati is hitting .424 (14-33) against Carrasco, so the Reds’ lineup should have success tonight.  Cincinnati presents solid value as a +1.5 runline underdog in this game on Friday night.

9* Play REDS (+1.5 runline).

Houston initially played much better than expected in Game 1 on Tuesday night.  The Rockets were ahead 31-24 after the first quarter, and they led by 16 points in the middle of the second quarter.  Houston came into that game off an emotionally grueling 7-game series with the Clippers who had the Rockets down 3-1.  Houston then trailed by 19 points on the Clippers’ home court in Game 6 before making a miraculous comeback in that game, and they went on to win Game 7 as an underdog on their home court.  Then they played Game 1 at Golden State just 48 hours removed from back-to-back exceptional games.  And somehow Houston had enough energy remaining to jump out to a big lead over the Warriors.  But after blowing that 16-point lead, we expect a major regression by the Rockets tonight.  Houston was out-scored by 11 points over the final three quarters, and out-scored 77-57 over the final 31 minutes of Game 1 on Tuesday night.  Houston has lost five games in the playoffs, and four of those losses have come by 12, 16, 25, and 33 points.  The Rockets may also be without Dwight Howard tonight; he is a game-time decision with a knee injury.

Golden State was not at their best early in Game 1, but their superiority over Houston showed as the game went on.  The Warriors will be much better from the opening tip in Game 2, and a peak performance by Golden State will lead to an easy blowout win.  The Warriors have won four consecutive games by a combined 54 points.  In fact, six of Golden State’s nine playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ four home playoff wins have come by an average of +11.2 points per game.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 44-3 SU at home this season, including three wins over Houston that have come by a combined 29 points.  The Warriors own an outstanding +13.8 point differential on their home court where they average 111.7 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 40.8% shooting from three-point land.  Houston’s defense has allowed 119.7 points per game in their six road playoff games, so the Warriors’ offense should score at will in this game tonight.  Golden State is the superior team, and since Houston is off three consecutive draining games, we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Cleveland won their first two playoff series despite playing with a shorthanded lineup.  The Cavaliers simply out-classed Boston in the first round, and while Chicago gave Cleveland a battle in the second round, the Bulls were also missing some important players in those games.  Cleveland will now take a monumental step-up in class against a healthy Atlanta team while playing without Kevin Love and with an injured Kyrie Irving.  Cleveland does not match-up well against Atlanta, especially with a limited lineup.  The Hawks went 3-1 SU/ATS versus the Cavaliers in the regular season, including 2-0 SU/ATS in Atlanta.  The Hawks were the only team to beat Cleveland three times this season, and those wins came fairly easy by margins of 8, 9, and 29 points.  The incredible thing about those Atlanta wins is the fact their starting lineup only played in one of those games, and seven different players averaged 10 points or more per game against Cleveland.  Overall, the Hawks’ offense ranked #2 in efficiency against Cleveland’s defense this season.  The Cavaliers are allowing 100 points per game on the road this season, and since the Hawks’ offense averaged 109 points per game against Cleveland, we expect a rough Game 1 for the road team.

Atlanta earned the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference after going an impressive 60-22 SU in the regular season.  The Hawks are 5-1 SU in their six home playoff games, and we should get Atlanta’s ‘A’ game in Game 1 tonight.  The Hawks get the perfect match-up against the Cavaliers, especially since Atlanta will now be playing with their complete starting lineup.  As noted above, Atlanta simply dominated Cleveland this season, and we expect more of the same tonight.  The Hawks have been fantastic at home this season where they are 40-7 SU overall and own an impressive +8.1 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 102.8 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Atlanta is severely undervalued in this game, so we’ll back the Hawks in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night.

10* Play HAWKS.

Houston is fortunate to be playing in the Western Conference Finals.  The Rockets trailed 3-1 in their series against Los Angeles, and they were down 19 points in the third quarter of Game 6 on the Clippers’ home court.  Houston made a miraculous comeback in that game, and they went on to win Game 7 on their home court on Sunday afternoon.  Now they must wheel right back and play a well-rested Golden State team on the road just 48 hours removed from back-to-back exceptional games.  The Rockets will likely play this game with a major hangover, and Houston is unlikely to have focus for this game.  Houston’s overall performance in the playoffs has been very inconsistent and the Rockets have a negative point differential despite winning series over Dallas and Los Angeles.  That’s not a good sign, especially since they are in a terrible situational spot against the best team in the NBA tonight.

Golden State was the best team throughout the regular season, and after sweeping New Orleans in the first round, the Warriors took a shot from Memphis.  The Warriors lost back-to-back games to the Grizzlies, but since then, they’ve won three consecutive games by a combined 50 points.  In fact, six of Golden State’s eight playoff wins have come by 10 points or more.  The Warriors’ four home playoff wins have come by an average of +13 points per game.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 43-3 SU at home this season, including two home wins over Houston that came by +12 and +13 point margins.  The Warriors own an outstanding +14 point differential on their home court where they average 111.7 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 41% shooting from three-point land.  Houston’s defense has allowed 121.6 points per game in their five road playoff games, so the Warriors’ offense should score at will in this game tonight.  Golden State was a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in the regular season meetings versus Houston, winning every game by at least 11 points or more with an average victory margin of +15.3 points per game this season.  Golden State is the superior team, and since Houston is in a terrible situational spot, we’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Texas and Cleveland will wrap-up their 3-game series on Sunday afternoon.  The Rangers will start Nick Martinez in this game.  Martinez is a perfect 2-0 with an impressive 1.88 ERA and an outstanding 1.16 WHIP this season.  Texas is a terrific 6-1 in Martinez’s seven starts this season.  He will face a Cleveland team that is just 5-11 in day games while only averaging 4.2 runs per game this season.  The Indians’ lineup will struggle against Martinez in this game.

Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco has not been the same since being hit by a line drive on April 14th.  Since then, Carrasco has allowed 3 runs or more in four straight starts.  He has also walked more batters which shows that he is tentative when pitching.  Elvis Andrus (3-7) and Prince Fielder (3-5, 1 HR) have had success against the righty.  Texas’ offense is in excellent current form as they’ve scored 3 runs or more in six straight games, and 5 runs or more in four of their last six games overall.  We’ll take Texas on the run line in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play RANGERS (+1.5 runline).

Minnesota will host Tampa Bay on Sunday afternoon.  The Twins will start Kyle Gibson in this game.  Gibson loves pitching at home where he is a perfect 3-0 with an incredible 0.44 ERA and an outstanding 0.97 WHIP this season.  Overall, Gibson has allowed just 1 run and 13 hits in his last three starts; he is simply in great current form right now.  Tampa Bay has lost the first two games in this series, and they’ve lost four of their last seven games overall.  The Rays have scored just 25 total runs in their last seven games.  

Tampa Bay will start Chris Archer in this game.  Archer has shown some cracks as of late, giving up 11 runs and 17 hits in his last three outings.  He will face a smoking hot Minnesota offense that has scored 6 runs or more in eight of their last thirteen games.  The Twins are 14-5 at home this season where they are averaging 5.7 runs per game.  Minnesota is simply in much better current form, so we’ll take the Twins on the run line in this game on Sunday afternoon.  

10* Play TWINS (+1.5 runline).

Golden State has won the last two games in this series in blowout fashion.  The Warriors won Game 4 by 17 points (101-84), and they won Game 5 by 20 points (98-78).  That’s two perfect games in a row by Golden State, with the last coming on their strong home court against a Memphis team that was without their best defender, Tony Allen, who is expected to return tonight.  Now the Warriors are overvalued in the pointspread based on the results of those past two games.  In Games 3 and 4, the Warriors were 4.5-point and 3.5-point road favorites in Memphis, and Golden State was coming off losses going into those games which qualified them in solid bounce-back situations.  Now off back-to-back blowout wins, the Warriors are a 5-point road favorite in Game 6 tonight, even though the situation now works against them.  This has created solid line value on the Grizzlies, especially since it is likely that the Memphis will play much better tonight.

Memphis has not played well in their last two games.  The Grizzlies have scored a total of just 162 points on horrendous 39.1% (66-169) shooting from the field and 24.2% (8-33) shooting from three-point land.  The Grizzlies’ offense is too good to play that bad for three consecutive games, especially since they will now play on their strong home court where they are 35-11 SU this season.  Memphis is also in a strong situational bounce-back spot while returning home off a road loss.  The Grizzlies are 9-3 SU and ATS in this situation based on tonight’s posted line.  Two of Memphis’ three losses in this situation have come by exactly 6 points, so they were just a couple of points away in each game from having a sterling 9-1 ATS record based on tonight's pointspread.  Expect a much better performance from Memphis this evening, so take the points with the Grizzlies in Game 6 at home on Friday night.

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Cleveland bounced back strong in Game 5 as expected; the Cavaliers beat the Bulls 106-101.  The game was not as close as the 5-point margin indicates as Cleveland led by double digits for the majority of the game.  LeBron James took over that game as he scored 38 points on 58.3% (14-24) shooting from the field.  The Cavaliers also got a terrific shooting performance from Kyrie Irving who is clearly playing hurt.  Irving is basically a spot-up shooter with his leg injuries, and he got a lot of open looks that he simply made.  Irving scored 25 points on 56.3% (9-16) shooting from the field, including 50% (3-6) shooting from three-point land.  But off that all-important Game 5 home win, and with the series going back to Chicago, we expect some regression from Cleveland in this game.  Cleveland is 5-1 versus Chicago when the Bulls are playing without their starting lineup.  Pau Gasol has missed the last two games in which the Cavaliers have won, but it’s not a good sign that Cleveland only won those games by 2 and 5 points.  Cleveland and Chicago are much closer teams than people realize, and that is especially true when the Bulls are playing with a complete lineup.

Chicago has played awful in their last two games.  The Bulls shot just 37.7% (66-175) from the field and 34.8% (16-46) from three-point land.  Off back-to-back poor efforts, we expect Chicago to bounce back strong, especially with this game on their home court.  The Bulls are 8-2 SU and ATS when playing at home off a road loss this season.  Those eight wins have come by an average of 9.8 points per game.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, and they were without Gasol for the last two games.  But Gasol is expected to be back on the court tonight, and the Bulls are 22-8 this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Chicago is in a terrific bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in Game 6 on Thursday night.                 

10* Play BULLS (-).

Philadelphia will host Pittsburgh for their fourth and final game of this series on Thursday afternoon.  The Phillies will start Aaron Harang in this game.  Harang is 3-3 with a strong 2.38 ERA and a terrific 1.02 WHIP in seven starts this season.  In his three starts at home, Harang owns a sterling 0.84 ERA and an impressive 0.70 WHIP.  Harang is 16-8 with a 1.20 WHIP in 28 career starts against Pittsburgh.  Last year, he held the Pirates to 4 runs and 13 hits in two starts as a member of the Braves.  Pittsburgh is just 8-10 on the road where they are averaging only 3.6 runs per game and batting just .234 as a team.

Pittsburgh will start Vance Worley who will face his former team in this game.  Worley is 0-2 with a terrible 5.40 ERA in his three road outings this season.  Over his last three starts, Worley owns a horrendous 5.29 ERA and an ugly 1.59 WHIP.  He has allowed 22 hits in his last 17 innings of work, so the Phillies should have success in this game.  Last year, Worley gave up 3 runs in just five innings in a start at Philadelphia.  The Phillies hold the advantage in this game today and they present solid value as a +1.5 runline home underdog on Thursday afternoon.

9* Play PHILLIES (+1.5 runline).

Washington will play in Arizona on Tuesday night.  The Nationals will start Stephen Strasburg who left his last start due to a shoulder injury.  Strasburg is just 2-3 this season with a terrible 4.73 ERA and a poor 1.61 WHIP.  On the road, Strasburg owns an ugly 5.94 ERA and a weak 1.62 WHIP this season.  He will face an Arizona offense that is averaging 5.9 runs and batting .291 in their past seven games, so Strasburg’s struggles will likely continue.

Arizona will start Rubby De La Rosa who has not lost at home.  De La Rosa has allowed just 7 runs and 15 hits in three home outings, striking out 20 while only walking four.  He has never faced the Nationals in his short career, so that gives him a nice advantage in this game.  Washington’s offense has been weaker against right-handed starters this season, so De La Rosa’s home success should continue in this game.  There is solid value with Arizona as a +1.5 runline home underdog on Tuesday night.

9* Play DIAMONDBACKS (+1.5 runline).

Los Angeles has won the last two games in this series in blowout fashion.  The Clippers won Game 3 by 25 points (124-99), and they won Game 4 by 33 points (128-95).  That’s two perfect games in a row by Los Angeles, but they both came on their home court.  Now the Clippers are greatly overvalued in the pointspread based on the results of the last two games.  In Games 1 and 2, Los Angeles was 7.5-point road underdogs in Houston; the Clippers are now 3-point road favorites in Game 5.  That creates a lot of value on the Rockets in this game, especially since it’s quite likely that the Clippers’ offense will regress sharply.  Los Angeles has scored 252 points in their last two games, and that type of scoring is simply unsustainable, even against a poor Houston defense.  The Clippers shot 52.5% (85-162) from the field and 43.3% (26-60) from three-point land in those two games.  Los Angeles also got to the free throw line a whopping 86 times.  The Clippers cannot repeat the production of the last two games, so they are quite vulnerable in tonight’s road game.

Houston has not played good at all in their last two games.  The Rockets shot just 40.4% (69-171) from the field and 37.7% (23-61) from three-point land.  They also shot a horrendous 54.1% (33-61) from the free throw line.  The Rockets’ offense is too good to play that bad in three consecutive games, especially since they will now play on their strong home court where they are 34-12 this season.  Houston is also in a strong situational spot while returning home off a road loss.  The Rockets are 6-4 SU in this situation, but they are a strong 9-1 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Three of the Rockets’ four losses in this situation have come by 2 points or less, and their other loss came by just 6 points.  We expect a much better performance from Houston tonight, so we’ll take the points with the Rockets in Game 5 on Tuesday night.      

9* Play ROCKETS (+).

Atlanta lost Game 3 in Washington on a last-second shot after coming back from a 21-point deficit.  The Hawks had three days of rest going into that game, and that extra rest was supposed to be a benefit.  However, it seems the extra rest was a detriment to Atlanta as they were out-scored 28-18 in the first quarter.  The Hawks didn’t get into a good rhythm until the four quarter when they out-scored the Wizards 35-18.  Atlanta also had to deal with the unexpected non-start of Paul Millsap; he was a late scratch due to being sick with the flu.  Millsap came off the bench and only played 22 minutes, so the Hawks used an unfamiliar lineup which also contributed to their uneven play.  Despite all the negatives, there were two big positives for the Hawks in that defeat.  Atlanta out-scored Washington 50-32 inside the paint, and they also had 25 fast-break points to just 11 fast-break points for the Wizards.  Atlanta will be more efficient in Game 4 as Millsap will be back in the starting lineup, and the Hawks will be in a better rhythm from the opening tip.  The Hawks’ offense ranked #3 in offensive efficiency against Washington’s defense this season, so we can expect a bounce back offensive performance from Atlanta tonight.

Washington got a total team effort in their 103-101 Game 3 win on Saturday.  The Wizards were playing without star point guard John Wall, but they got some good performances from their backups.  Five players scored 13 points or more, and overall, the Wizards shot 47.4% (37-78) from the field.  Washington will likely regress tonight, especially since their offense only ranked #16 in efficiency against Atlanta’s defense this season.  Wall will likely miss tonight’s game once again even though he is officially listed as a game-time decision.  Washington cannot sustain good play without Wall on the court, especially against a talented team like Atlanta.  Wall led the Wizards in scoring (17.6 ppg) and assists (10.0 apg) in the regular season and he has averaged 17.4 ppg and 12.6 apg in the playoffs this year.  The Wizards were -13.3 net points worse per 100 possessions when Wall was not on the court this season, so he is an incredibly important player in their lineup.  Atlanta overlooked Washington in Game 3 after winning Game 2 at home, but the Hawks woke up in the fourth quarter and they should carry that focus for a full game tonight, especially since they now trail 2-1 in this series.  The Hawks have yet to play their ‘A’ offensive game in this series, but when they do, they will run Washington off the court.  Atlanta is set to breakout big tonight, so lay the points with the Hawks in Game 4.

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Los Angeles crushed Houston in Game 3 on Friday night.  The Clippers won that game by 25 points (124-99), and they led by as many as 32 points while the Rockets’ biggest lead was only 2 points.  Los Angeles dominated from the opening tip, and they simply played a perfect game from start to finish.  The Clippers got a total team effort in that game as five players scored 12 points or more while Austin Rivers added 25 points off the bench.  Rivers shot an incredible 76.9% (10-13) from the floor, including 50% (3-6) from three-point land.  Overall, Los Angeles shot 55.4% (46-83) from the field and 44.8% (13-29) from three-point land.  The Clippers also hit 82.6% (19-23) from the free throw line.  Chris Paul played in Game 3 despite dealing with a hamstring injury; he only played 23 minutes and at times he didn’t look like himself.  Los Angeles got a complete team effort in Game 3, but they need CP3 to be 100% because the role players are unlikely to repeat their performances going forward. 

Houston did not play good at all in Game 3.  The Rockets shot just 39.8% (35-88) from the field and 33.3% (11-33) from three-point land.  They also shot a horrendous 58.1% (18-31) from the free throw line.  The Rockets’ offense is too good to play that bad again, especially since they are coming off a loss.  Houston has alternated wins and losses over their last six games, so if that trend continues tonight, the Rockets will be in position to steal a win in Los Angeles.  In the playoffs, Houston is a perfect 2-0 SU when playing off a loss.  The Rockets scored 218 points in those two games despite shooting just 43.8% (71-162) from the field, 26.3% (15-57) from three-point land, and 61% (61-100) from the free throw line.  Houston did not shoot the ball well in those games, and they still found a way to win.  If the Rockets play up to their offensive capabilities in tonight’s game, they’ll have a breakout performance.  But we don’t even need Houston to win since the pointspread is quite inflated after the results of Game 3.  We expect a much better performance from Houston tonight, so we’ll take the points with the Rockets in Game 4 on Sunday night.      

10* Play ROCKETS (+).

Atlanta bounced back strong at home in Game 2 with an easy 106-90 win over Washington.  The Hawks played a shorthanded Washington team as John Wall was a late scratch with a hand/wrist injury.  Wall will likely miss tonight’s game as well, and his absence is just too much for the Wizards to overcome.  Atlanta finally got some rest since the playoffs began; they’ve had three full days to get ready for Game 3.  “I think the break came for us at a good time,” Kyle Korver said.  “We had a really quick turnaround between series. We played the late game in New York. And I think I got to bed at 4:30 in the morning, came here and watched some film on Saturday and then played the early game on Sunday. And it’s been a couple of physical games in this series, so for us, for me and a lot of us, these couple of days in the middle have been great and you have to take advantage of them.”  Atlanta is a freshened team right now, and they are simply too good for Washington, especially with Wall not on the court.  The Hawks’ offense ranked #3 in offensive efficiency against Washington’s defense this season, so with good rest, we expect a big offensive performance from Atlanta tonight.

Washington got some good performances from their backups in Game 2, but their efforts weren’t nearly enough.  The Wizards got contributions from unlikely players as Drew Gooden and Otto Porter combined to score 20 points on 50% (8-16) shooting from the field, including 50% (2-4) shooting from three-point land.  That’s two consecutive games in which that duo has contributed; that’s simply a fluke.  In the last two games, Gooden and Porter have scored 45 points on 50% (15-30) shooting from the field, including 50% (6-12) shooting from three-point land.  Ramon Sessions, who started in place of John Wall, scored 21 points on 57.1% (8-14) shooting from the field, including 60% (3-5) shooting from three-point land.  His performance is unlikely to be duplicated.  Washington’s offense only ranked #16 in efficiency against Atlanta’s defense this season, so they are set to regress in this game, especially since they’ve been getting big contributions from role players.  We expect Atlanta to take control of this series with a convincing win in Game 3 on Saturday night.     

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Cleveland bounced back strong in Game 2 at home; the Cavaliers beat the Bulls 106-91.  LeBron James took over that game as he scored 33 points on 44.8% shooting from the field.  But off that must-win game, and the series now going to Chicago, we expect some regression from Cleveland in this game tonight.  The Cavaliers will get J.R. Smith back in the lineup, but they are not getting Kevin Love back this season.  Smith is another option for the Cavaliers, but he’s not a game changer, and his return will have a minimal impact.  Cleveland did go 3-1 versus Chicago in the regular season, but the results in those four games were irrelevant.  The Bulls played all four games without their true starting lineup, and leading scorer, Jimmy Butler (24.8 ppg), missed two of those games.  Cleveland and Chicago are much closer teams than people realize, and that is especially true with the Cavaliers missing Kevin Love.

Chicago played awful in Game 2 after controlling Game 1 from start to finish.  The Bulls shot just 40.5% (32-79) from the field and 31.8% (7-22) from three-point land.  Chicago never led on Wednesday, and they trailed by as many as 25 points.  Off that embarrassing performance, we expect Chicago to bounce back strong, especially with this game now on their home court.  The Bulls are 7-2 SU and ATS when playing at home off a road loss this season.  Those seven wins have come by an average of +10.7 points per game.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, but they have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 21-8 SU this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls' teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Chicago still has a lot of upside in the playoffs, and since they are in a terrific bounce back spot, we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in Game 3 on Friday night.

10* Play BULLS (-).

Los Angeles stole Game 1 in Houston on Monday night.  The Clippers played that game without point guard Chris Paul (hamstring), and they only had one day to get ready after beating San Antonio in Game 7 of their last series on Saturday night.  Los Angeles was in a terrible spot for that game, but they played much better than expected in a 117-101 win.  The Clippers got a total team effort in that game as all five starters scored 10 points or more while Jamal Crawford added 21 points off the bench.  Overall, Los Angeles shot 48.8% (41-84) from the field and 41.9% (13-31) from three-point land.  The Clippers also got to the free throw line 30 times in that game where they hit 73.3%, including a rare 6-11 performance from DeAndre Jordan.  Chris Paul is listed as a game-time decision, but these quotes are not optimistic that he will play.  “I pretty much doubt it,” Clippers head coach Doc Rivers said when asked about Paul playing.  “Right now, I doubt if he plays.”  Paul added: “It’s really tough, especially with the way that I play, there’s only one way I know how to play. It’s one of those things where you don’t want to make it worse than it already is.”  The Clippers surprised with their performance in Game 1, but we expect a major regression tonight, especially since Houston will not take Los Angeles lightly without Paul on the court.

Houston did not play good at all in Game 1.  The Rockets shot just 45.2% (38-84) from the field and 33.3% (11-33) from three-point land.  They also shot a horrendous 58.3% (14-24) from the free throw line.  The Rockets’ offense is too good to play that bad again, especially on their home court when coming off a loss.  Houston is a terrific 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS based on tonight’s posted pointspread when playing at home off a loss in their previous home game.  The Rockets have won those games by an average of 10.8 points per game.  Overall, Houston is 33-12 at home with a solid +5.4 point differential.  Houston’s offense averaged 110.7 points per game in their three previous home playoff games, so their performance in Game 1 against the Clippers was significantly worse than how they’ve playing.  Houston is in a great bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Rockets in Game 2 on Wednesday night.                 

9* Play ROCKETS (-).

Washington stole Game 1 in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon.  The Wizards rallied back from a 12-point deficit, and they out-scored the Hawks 23-15 in the fourth quarter to win 104-98.  Washington won the game at the free throw line as they were +8 points after getting 22 attempts to just 14 attempts for Atlanta.  The Wizards also got contributions from unlikely players as Drew Gooden and Otto Porter combined to score 22 points on 50% (7-14) shooting from the field, including 50% (4-8) shooting from three-point land.  Washington’s win also came at a price as John Wall injured his wrist and his hand, and Bradley Beal sprained his ankle.  The Wizards sound like they are satisfied with their win in Game 1:  “The main thing is you try to get one,” John Wall said.  “Most important is you try to get the first game, I feel like that’s the key game.  We know it’s going to be difficult, it’s going to be tougher than what it was in Game 1.  Those guys are probably not going to miss as many shots as they did in the fourth quarter.”  Washington’s only other win over Atlanta this season came when the Hawks rested all five of their starters.  The Hawks scored 105, 106, and 120 points in their three wins over the Wizards.  Those three wins came by an average of +14.7 points per game, so the Hawks will bounce back strong in Game 2.

Atlanta lost at home on Sunday afternoon for just the 7th time this season.  The Hawks have been flawless when playing at home off a previous home loss this season.  Atlanta is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in this situation based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  The Hawks have won all six of those games by 7 points or more with their average win coming by +10.7 points per game.  Overall, Atlanta is 38-7 SU at home with an impressive +8.1 point differential in all games this season.  Atlanta’s offense averages 103.2 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 38% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  The Hawks’ offense ranked #3 in offensive efficiency against Washington’s defense this season, so their poor shooting performance (37.8% from the field and 34.2% from three) in Game 1 was a fluke.  Washington’s offense only ranked #16 in efficiency against Atlanta’s defense this season, so they are set to regress tonight.  Atlanta is in a great bounce back spot, we’ll lay the points with the Hawks in Game 2 on Tuesday night.                 

9* Play HAWKS (-).

Chicago got an easy opponent in the first round of the playoffs, and the Bulls won that series 4-2 over Milwaukee.  Chicago is obviously taking a big step-up in class against Cleveland in this series, but we expect the Bulls to give the Cavaliers a battle, especially in Game 1 on Monday night.  Chicago fought thru injuries all season, but they now have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 20-7 SU this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls' teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Now that they are healthy, they are also a much fresher team for the playoffs.  Chicago still has a lot of upside in the playoffs, and they will be a tough out for Cleveland in this series.

Cleveland also had an easy first round opponent, and the Cavaliers swept Boston in four games.  Like Chicago, the Cavaliers are now taking a big step-up in class, so they’ll need to play much better in this series.  Cleveland did go 3-1 versus Chicago in the regular season, but the results in those four games are irrelevant.  The Bulls played all four games without their 20-7 SU starting lineup, and leading scorer, Jimmy Butler (24.8 ppg), missed two of those games.  Cleveland will be the shorthanded team now as Kevin Love was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury during the series with Boston, and J.R. Smith is suspended for the first two games of this series for fighting against the Celtics.  That’s two starters and 24 points per game missing from Cleveland’s offense; their third and fourth ranked scorers per game this season.  The Cavaliers have not played a game in seven days either, and since they will be playing an unfamiliar lineup tonight, we expect Cleveland to struggle.  Chicago is an undervalued team right now, so we’ll take the points with the Bulls in Game 1 on Monday night.                 

10* Play BULLS (+).

Washington comes into this series with Atlanta off a 4-game sweep of the Toronto Raptors.  Because of that, the Wizards have not played in six days and whatever momentum they built up in those wins has been lost.  Washington is also taking a huge step-up in class against the Hawks in this series.  The Wizards controlled their series against a poor and undermanned Toronto team that had one of the worst defenses in the entire playoffs.  Now Washington must try and match those performances against an Atlanta team that was one of the best in the NBA this season.  Washington’s only win over Atlanta this season came when the Hawks rested all five of their starters.  The Hawks scored 105, 106, and 120 points in their three wins over the Wizards.  Those three wins came by an average of 14.7 points per game.  Washington’s playoff success so far has come as a surprise since they were just 13-15 SU after the All-Star break with a -2.4 point differential in those games.

Atlanta returns home off a 125-94 blowout win in Brooklyn on Friday night.  The Hawks have a lot of momentum now after back-to-back wins over the Nets, and they are in a much better rhythm than Washington.  The Hawks have been fantastic at home this season where they are 38-6 and own an impressive +8.4 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 103.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  The Hawks’ offense ranked #3 in offensive efficiency against Washington’s defense this season, so Atlanta will score at ease in this game.  To compare, the Wizards’ offense only ranked #16 in efficiency against Atlanta’s defense this season.  Atlanta is the better team, and since they are in a good spot, we’ll lay the points with the Hawks in Game 1 on Sunday afternoon.                 

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Chicago cruised to an easy 3-0 series lead, but since then, the Bulls have lost back-to-back games.  But we expect a peak performance by Chicago tonight, especially since they played well below their abilities in the last two games.  The Bulls’ offense was terrible in their last game as they scored just 88 points on a terrible 34.4% (31-90) shooting from the field and a woeful 18.2% (4-22) shooting from three-point land.  Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler shot a combined 24.4% (10-41), including a poor 18.2% (2-11) from three-point land.  Chicago’s offense will play much better tonight, especially coming off two consecutive losses.  The Bulls are 19-7 this season when their original starters play together.  Chicago is 6-3 SU versus the Bucks this season with all six wins coming by 7 points or more.  Chicago’s defense held Milwaukee to just 71, 86, 87, 91, 82, and 95 points in regulation time in those wins.  

Milwaukee has won the last two games in this series, but the Bucks got some unlikely results to win those games.  In Game 4, the Bucks shot 40.9% (9-22) from three-point land with three players on their second unit scoring 10 points or more.  In Game 5, Milwaukee went a perfect 100% (16-16) from the free throw line while Michael Carter-Williams scored 22 points on 66.7% (10-15) shooting from the field.  All of the above offensive accomplishments by the Bucks were all anomalies that will not be repeated in tonight’s game.  Milwaukee owns the worst offense in the playoffs based on efficiency numbers, and they won Game 4 and Game 5 despite scoring a total of 186 points on a terrible 40.7% (70-172) shooting from the field.  Milwaukee simply won by default, and that won’t happen tonight since Chicago will come with a focused effort off back-to-back losses.  The Bucks are just 13-21 SU since the All-Star break; their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have declined sharply.  Chicago is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in Game 6 on Thursday night.                     

10* Play BULLS (-).

San Francisco and Los Angeles will play the third and final game of this series on Wednesday night.  Ryan Vogelsong will be on the mound for the Giants in his second straight start against the Dodgers.  Vogelsong allowed 2 runs and three hits at home in that outing, but now he is on the road where he pitches much worse; he owns a horrendous 13.49 ERA and an ugly 2.14 WHIP on the road this season.  Over his last three starts, Vogelsong has given up 9 runs and nine hits in 10.2 innings of work with a poor 7.59 ERA.  Andre Ethier (5-19), Adrian Gonzalez (6-20), Yasmani Grandal (4-12), and Juan Uribe (9-22) have all hit the right-hander hard.  The Dodgers are hitting .278 against right-handed starters while averaging 4.9 runs per game this season.

Los Angeles will start Zack Greinke in this game.  Greinke is a perfect 3-0 with a fantastic 1.35 ERA and a terrific 0.79 WHIP in his four starts this season.  Greinke is 5-0 with a strong 1.99 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in seven career starts against San Francisco with his team going a perfect 7-0 in those games.  Brandon Belt (2-11), Gregor Blanco (2-14), Brandon Crawford (2-15), Hunter Pence (4-24), and Joe Panik (1-6) have all struggled against Greinke.  The Giants are only hitting .245 while averaging just 2.8 runs per game against right-handed starters this season; San Francisco is just 5-10 in those games.  Los Angeles holds all of the edges and should win easily, so we’ll lay the -1.5 runline with the Dodgers in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play DODGERS (-1.5 runline).

Brooklyn won both games on their home court to tie this series at 2 games apiece.  The Nets will now travel to Atlanta to play the all important Game 5 on Wednesday night.  Brooklyn is also 4-0 ATS in this series, but that’s somewhat misleading considering the Nets trailed by double-digit margins in three of those four games.  In fact, Brooklyn trailed by 12 points or more in every playoff game except Game 3 when the Hawks simply played terrible on offense.  The Hawks also led by at least 8+ points entering the fourth quarter in three of the four playoff games so far, including their Game 4 overtime loss on Monday.  Atlanta will be less likely to blow another lead at home tonight.  The Nets’ success in this series has come as a surprise considering Brooklyn went just 16-13 SU after the All-Star break, getting out-scored by -1.3 points per game.  The Nets’ defense was absolutely terrible in those games as they allowed 109.3 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta is 6-2 SU against the Nets this season while averaging a whopping 108.7 points per game in those wins.  Brooklyn lost those games by an average of 13.5 points per game.

Atlanta returns home off back-to-back losses in Brooklyn, and we expect the Hawks to play their best game of the series tonight.  Atlanta has been fantastic at home this season where they are 37-6 SU and own an impressive +8.5 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 103.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  The Hawks are also in a good situational spot for tonight’s game.  Atlanta is 8-4 SU when playing at home off a road loss this season.  The Hawks have won all eight of those games by 7 points or more with their average win coming by +13.8 points per game.  Atlanta has faced Brooklyn in this exact situation twice this season; the Hawks won both games by a combined +39 points.  Atlanta is the superior team, and since they are in a good bounce back spot, we’ll lay the points with the Hawks in Game 5 on Wednesday night.                 

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Milwaukee salvaged a win in Game 4, and they needed the full 48 minutes to get that win as they won it on a last second basket.  But the Bucks only extended their season one game as there’s little chance Milwaukee wins again tonight.  The Bucks are just 12-21 SU since the All-Star break during which time their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have declined sharply.  Milwaukee won games this season with their defense, but that unit is playing poorly, and the Bucks simply do not have the offense to overcome it.  Milwaukee owns the worst offense in the playoffs based on efficiency numbers, so the Bucks are simply up against it.  The Bucks won Game 4 despite scoring just 92 points on a terrible 39.1% (34-87) shooting from the field.  Milwaukee simply won by default, and that won’t happen tonight since Chicago will come with a focused effort off that loss.

Chicago’s loss in Game 4 snapped their 7-game winning streak, but we expect the Bulls to bounce right back with a big win tonight.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, but they now have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 19-6 SU this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls' teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Now that they are healthy, they are also a much fresher team in the playoffs.  Chicago has a lot of upside, and they’ve dominated Milwaukee.  The Bulls are 6-2 SU versus the Bucks this season with all six wins coming by 7 points or more.  Chicago’s defense held Milwaukee to just 71, 86, 87, 91, 82, and 95 points in regulation time in those wins.  The Bulls are simply the superior team and they want to wrap this series up tonight, especially since their next opponent (Cleveland) has already advanced.  We’ll lay the points with Chicago in Game 5 on Monday night.                     

9* Play BULLS (-).

Pittsburgh will conclude their three-game series in Arizona on Sunday afternoon.  Francisco Liriano continues to look for his first win of the season for the Pirates.  Liriano has decent numbers so far, but he is coming off an outing in which he only lasted five innings while giving up 3 runs on Tuesday.  Arizona is 3-1 versus left-handed starters this year while scoring 5.2 runs per game against them.  Liriano has never beaten the Diamondbacks in two career starts, including a 3-2 road loss last August as a -165 favorite.

Arizona’s Jeremy Hellickson is coming off a winning effort in San Francisco where he allowed just 1 run in 6.2 innings of work.  Only three hitters in the Giants' lineup have faced Hellickson before, and none of them have a hit in seven at-bats.  Pittsburgh’s offense has been weak this season, especially on the road where they are only hitting .223 as a team while averaging just 3.7 runs per game.  There is solid value with Arizona as a +1.5 runline home underdog in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play DIAMONDBACKS (+1.5 runline).

Los Angeles was thoroughly embarrassed by San Antonio in Game 3; the Spurs won that game by 27 points (100-73).  That loss can be forgiven since the Clippers were playing with a hangover from their blown win in Game 2.  Los Angeles had a 2-point lead with the ball with less than 15 seconds left to play when Blake Griffin turned the ball over.  That miscue allowed San Antonio to tie the game and send it to overtime; the Spurs eventually won 111-107.  Once the Spurs jumped out to an early lead in Game 3, it was obvious that the Clippers were going to get blown out.  Los Angeles’ offense was awful in that game as they shot just 34.1% (29-85) from the field and 26.1% (6-23) from three-point land.  The Clippers scored just 11 points in the third quarter which was their lowest point total in a quarter this season.  Los Angeles’ offense is too good to play that bad again, especially against the Spurs since the Clippers ranked #1 in offensive efficiency against San Antonio’s defense this season.    

San Antonio played a perfect Game 3 after escaping Los Angeles with a fortunate win in Game 2.  The Spurs shot 52.6% (40-76) from the field and 41.7% (10-24) from three-point land on Friday night.  San Antonio got extreme contributions from a pair of unlikely sources in that game.  Kawhi Leonard, who is a defensive specialist, scored 32 points on an incredible 72.2% (13-18) shooting from the field and 60% (3-5) shooting from three-point land.  Reserve Boris Diaw scored 15 point on 62.5% (5-8) shooting off the bench.  Leonard and Diaw led the Spurs in scoring, and only Danny Green (11 points) scored more than 9 points in that game.  San Antonio got big games from role players, so the blowout win was more of an anomaly than anything else.  These two teams are much closer than the misleading 27-point margin in the last game.  With Los Angeles off back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing effort in their last game, we expect a strong bounce back performance from the Clippers in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon.                         

10* Play CLIPPERS (+).

Chicago is up 3-0 on Milwaukee in this series, and we expect the Bulls to get the series sweep tonight.  Chicago comes into tonight on a 7-game winning streak; they’ve won those games by an average of 11.3 points per game.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, but they have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 19-5 this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Now that they are healthy, they are also a much fresher team in the playoffs.  Chicago has a lot of upside, and they’ve dominated Milwaukee.  The Bulls are 6-1 SU versus the Bucks this season with all six wins coming by 7 points or more.  Chicago’s defense held Milwaukee to just 71, 86, 87, 91, 82, and 95 points in regulation time in those wins. 

Milwaukee put everything they had into Game 3, and it will be difficult for them to bounce back tonight considering how they lost their last game.  The Bucks built an 18-point lead in the second quarter before Chicago stormed back and led by 8 points with just 1:37 left in the game.  Milwaukee closed on a 9-1 run to take the game into the first overtime.  Milwaukee ultimately lost 113-106 in double overtime; a defeat that basically ended their season.  The Bucks are now just 11-21 SU since the All-Star break; their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have declined sharply.  Milwaukee has won games this season with their defense, but that unit is playing poorly, and the Bucks simply do not have the offense to overcome it.  Milwaukee owns the worst offense in the playoffs based on efficiency numbers, so the Bucks are simply up against it.  We’ve won with Best Bet winners on Chicago in the first three games, and we’ll come right back and lay the points with the Bulls in Game 4 on Saturday night.                     

10* Play BULLS (-).

Toronto and Washington switch locations for Game 3 of this series on Friday night.  The Wizards won both games as road underdogs in Toronto, so they return home up 2-0 on the Raptors.  Toronto and Washington are similar teams, so the results of the first two games do not indicate that the Wizards are the superior team.  Since the All-Star break, Toronto actually played better basketball than Washington even though the teams had similar records.  The Raptors went 13-16 SU with a -0.2 point differential.  The Wizards went 13-15 SU with a -2.4 point differential.  Those numbers show that Toronto was slightly the better team, and in a game they must have, we expect the Raptors to bring their best effort tonight.  “We understand we’re pretty much playing with our backs against the wall,” said Patrick Patterson.  “Plain and simple, black and white, we cannot lose Game 3.”  Kyle Lowry echoed those thoughts:  “It’s a must-win for us.  One win.  That’s what we’ve got to focus on.  One win, one game, one possession at a time.”

Washington is not in the best of spots for tonight’s game even though they are playing at home with a commanding 2-0 series lead.  As mentioned above, the Wizards won the first two games straight-up as underdogs.  But now they are laying a handful of points into a desperate team that is sure to bring their best effort.  Washington’s offense shot incredibly well in Game 2, but that only sets them up to regress tonight.  The Wizards shot 53.2% (42-79) from the field and 47.6% (10-21) from three-point land.  Washington also got to the free throw line 34 times in Game 2.  The Wizards had five players score 10 points or more in that game, and the 117 points scored was their third highest point total of the season.  After scoring 110 points or more this season, Washington has gone just 5-6 SU in their next game, averaging only 96.9 points per game.  Prior to losing Game 1 and Game 2, Toronto was 3-0 versus Washington this season with the Raptors’ average win coming by 8.3 points per game.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Toronto in Game 3 on Friday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Golden State is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA, and the Warriors travel to New Orleans with a 2-0 series lead.  But neither game was all that easy for Golden State as they only won by 10 and 7 points while their offense scored just 97 and 106 points.  The Warriors just played in New Orleans on April 7th, and they lost that game 103-100.  Golden State was only a 4.5-point road favorite in that game, but now they are laying more points on the same court in a playoff game.  That doesn't make much sense, and there is value playing against Golden State in this spot.  The Warriors haven’t played a road game since that loss in New Orleans; they’ve been at home for more than two weeks.  That makes tonight's spot a little tougher for the Warriors since their routine of being home has been disrupted.  Golden State has struggled in New Orleans this season, losing their last trip and needing overtime to win back in December.

New Orleans was in excellent form during the second half of the season.  The Pelicans went 18-11 SU after the All-Star break with one of those wins coming against the Warriors.  New Orleans has been tremendous when playing at home off a road loss this season.  In fact, the Pelicans are an incredible 12-1 SU and a perfect 13-0 ATS based on tonight’s posted line in this exact situational spot.  Their only straight-up loss came by just 2 points and the Pelicans are a perfect 3-0 SU as a home underdog in this situation.  Overall, New Orleans is 28-13 SU at home this season where they own a +4.1 point differential.  The Pelicans’ offense averages 101.7 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land at home.  Golden State’s defense allows 101 points per game on the road, so the Pelicans’ offense will play much better tonight than they did in the first two games of this series.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points in Game 3 on Thursday night.

9* Play PELICANS (+).

Chicago is up 2-0 on Milwaukee in this series, and we expect the Bulls to win once again tonight.  Chicago comes into tonight on a 6-game winning streak; they’ve won those games by an average of 12 points per game.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, but they have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are now 18-5 SU this season when their original starters play together.  There is a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls' teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Now that they are healthy, they are also a much fresher team in the playoffs.  Chicago has a lot of upside, and they’ve dominated Milwaukee.  The Bulls are 5-1 SU versus the Bucks this season with all five wins coming by 8 points or more.  Chicago’s defense held Milwaukee to just 71, 86, 87, 91, and 82 points in those wins. 

Milwaukee’s effectiveness wore off as the season went on, and their play since the All-Star break has been less than impressive.  The Bucks are now just 11-20 SU since the break; their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have declined sharply.  Overall, Milwaukee’s defense finished second in efficiency while holding opponents to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  But since the All-Star break, the Bucks have dropped significantly, allowing 103 points per 100 possessions.  Milwaukee has won games this season with their defense, but that unit is now playing poorly, and the Bucks simply do not have the offense to overcome it.  Milwaukee owns the worst offense in the playoffs based on efficiency numbers, so the Bucks are simply up against it.  We’ve won with Best Bet winners on Chicago in the first two games, and we’ll come right back and lay the points with the Bulls in Game 3 on Thursday night.

10* Play BULLS (-).

Brooklyn only lost Game 1 by 7 points (99-92), but that was a misleading final score.  The Nets were thoroughly dominated by Atlanta despite what the final score indicated.  Brooklyn trailed by double digits for the majority of the game, and the Nets were never a threat to win.  After the All-Star break, Brooklyn went 16-13 SU, but the Nets were actually out-scored by 1.3 points per game.  The Nets’ defense was absolutely terrible in those games as they allowed 109.3 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 against the Nets this season while averaging a whopping 111 points per game.  Brooklyn was non-competitive in three of those games while losing by 23, 11, and 32 points.  On the road, Brooklyn owns a -3.5 point differential, so clearly, Brooklyn is not a playoff caliber team.

Atlanta started Game 1 off strong as they out-scored Brooklyn 32-20 in the first quarter.  The Hawks then got comfortable with their double-digit lead and allowed the Nets to hang around.  Atlanta’s offense actually had a poor shooting game on Sunday night.  The Hawks shot just 43% (34-79) from the field and 33.3% (10-30) from three-point land.  Despite that, Atlanta still led by double digits for the majority of the game.  Atlanta’s offense should have a much better offensive game tonight, and that spells major trouble for Brooklyn.  As noted above, Atlanta has dominated Brooklyn this season.  The Hawks have also been fantastic at home this season where they are 36-6 SU and own an impressive +8.5 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 103.4 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Atlanta is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Hawks in Game 2 on Wednesday night.

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Milwaukee is down 0-1 in this series, and after tonight we expect the Bucks to return home down 0-2.  Chicago easily cashed a Best Bet winner for us in Game 1 when they beat Milwaukee 103-91 on Saturday night.  We’ll come right back with the Bulls for all the same reasons.  Milwaukee’s effectiveness wore off as the season went on, and their play since the All-Star break has been less than impressive.  The Bucks are now just 11-19 SU since the break; their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers have declined sharply.  Overall, Milwaukee’s defense finished second in efficiency while holding opponents to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  But since the All-Star break, the Bucks have dropped significantly, allowing 103 points per 100 possessions.  Milwaukee has won games this season with their defense, but that unit is playing poorly, and the Bucks simply do not have the offense to overcome it.  Milwaukee owns the worst offense in the playoffs based on efficiency numbers, so the Bucks are simply up against it.          

Chicago comes into tonight on a 5-game winning streak; they’ve won those games by an average of 12.6 points per game.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, but they have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 17-5 this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Now that they are healthy, they are also a much fresher team in the playoffs.  Chicago has a lot of upside, and they’ve dominated Milwaukee.  The Bulls are 4-1 SU versus the Bucks this season with all four wins coming by 8 points or more.  Chicago’s defense held Milwaukee to just 71, 86, 87, and 91 points in those wins.  Chicago is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in Game 2 on Monday night.                 

10* Play BULLS (-).

Brooklyn has not had a good season at all.  The Nets come into tonight’s game with a losing record as they went just 38-44 during the regular season.  Brooklyn needed to win their final game of the season just to make the playoffs.  Since the All-Star break, Brooklyn has gone 16-13 SU, but the Nets were actually out-scored by 1.3 points per game.  The Nets’ defense was absolutely terrible in those games as they allowed 109.3 points per 100 possessions.  That poor defense is going to get roasted in this series by the sharpshooting Hawks, so Brooklyn’s bad defensive play is going to continue.  The Hawks went a perfect 4-0 against the Nets this season while averaging a whopping 114 points per game.  Brooklyn was noncompetitive in three of those games while losing by 23, 11, and 32 points.  Overall this season, the Nets own a -2.9 point differential.  On the road, Brooklyn owns a -3.5 point differential.  Clearly, Brooklyn is not a playoff caliber team, and they will get exposed in Game 1 against the Hawks tonight.       

Atlanta had the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference locked up for awhile, and the Hawks were simply playing out the regular season string while waiting for the playoffs.  Atlanta was in some tough scheduling and situational spots down the stretch, and their poor play reflected that.  The Hawks closed the season on a 3-game losing streak, and because of that, we know we’re going to get Atlanta’s ‘A’ game tonight in Game 1.  The Hawks get the perfect match-up against the Nets to get back to their winning ways.  As noted above, Atlanta simply dominated Brooklyn this season, and we expect more of the same tonight.  The Hawks have been fantastic at home this season where they are 35-6 and own an impressive +8.5 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 103.5 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  Atlanta is the superior team in a very good spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Hawks in Game 1 on Sunday night.                 

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Milwaukee surprised many by making the playoffs this season.  The Bucks are a young team that came together quickly at the beginning of the season, and they caught a lot of teams by surprise.  But as the season went on, Milwaukee’s effectiveness wore off, and their play since the All-Star break has been less than impressive.  The Bucks went just 11-18 SU after the break as their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers declined sharply.  Overall, Milwaukee’s defense finished second in efficiency while holding opponents to just 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  But since the All-Star break, the Bucks have dropped significantly, allowing 103 points per 100 possessions.  Milwaukee has won games this season with their defense, but that unit is playing poorly, and the Bucks simply do not have the offense to overcome it.  Milwaukee owns the worst offense in the playoffs based on efficiency numbers, so the Bucks are up against it, especially in Game 1 against the Bulls.          

Chicago was gearing up for the playoffs as the regular season winded down; the Bulls won their last four games by an average of 12.8 points per game.  Chicago battled thru injuries all season, but they will have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 16-5 this season when their original starters play together.  There’s a huge difference between this year’s team and the Bulls teams of the past.  Chicago was usually worn out by the time the playoffs started because head coach Tom Thibodeau played his starters way too many minutes.  This year, with all their injuries, the Bulls’ starters have played limited minutes.  Now that they are healthy, they are also a much fresher team coming into the playoffs.  Chicago has a lot of upside going into the playoffs, and they get a good match-up against Milwaukee in the first round.  The Bulls went 3-1 SU versus the Bucks this season with all three wins coming by 8 points or more.  Chicago’s defense held Milwaukee to just 71, 86, and 87 points in those wins.  Chicago is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Bulls in Game 1 on Saturday night.                 

10* Play BULLS (-).

Washington is locked into the #5 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but the Wizards aren’t gearing down.  The Wizards will play their starters in Indiana tonight, and the team is looking forward to this game since the Pacers ended Washington’s season in Game 6 of their playoff series last year.  Washington has a chance to keep Indiana out of the playoffs with a win tonight; the Pacers need to win to hold onto the eighth and final spot going into tomorrow night.  “We got a rivalry with them,” John Wall said.  “We feel like we owe them from last year.”  Would keeping a rival out of the playoffs be satisfying for the Wizards?  “Yep,” Wall said.  “Like teams spoiled it for me my first three years.”  Head coach Randy Wittman wants his team to fine tune their play before the playoffs begin:  “We have to approach it like a playoff game like we have done these last six and seven games. We have to come out ready to go and be aggressive.”  Washington is 5-1 SU during their last six games with their lone loss coming in Brooklyn without John Wall on the court.

Indiana is fighting for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  The Pacers come into tonight on a 5-game winning streak, but four of those wins have come against bad teams that will miss the playoffs.  Indiana’s recent wins have come against Charlotte, Miami, New York, and Detroit.  The Pacers are now playing a team that is better than they are, and their opponent has a lot of motivation to win.  All three of this season’s previous meetings between Washington and Indiana have been close with the margins of victory all coming by 7 points or less.  Overall, the Wizards are 2-1 SU versus the Pacers this season with Indiana’s lone win coming by just 2 points (103-101).  We expect another close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Washington in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play WIZARDS (+).

Chicago is gearing up for the playoffs, and the Bulls still have a lot to play for.  Chicago is battling for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference, so their last two games of the regular season are quite important.  Chicago has dealt with injuries all season, but they finally have their original starting five back on the court.  The Bulls are 16-5 SU this season when their original starters play together.  Chicago has won their last two games, and the game they may look back at as being their turning point came last Thursday night in Miami.  The Bulls trailed that game by 19 points (51-32) at the half before dominating the second half; they out-scored Miami by 30 points (57-27) en route to an 89-78 win.  Chicago then beat Philadelphia on Saturday night, and we expect the Bulls to continue their winning ways tonight against the Nets.

Brooklyn is fighting for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  But the Nets have been erratic in their recent play, and their wins have come against teams either resting or missing their best players.  The Nets have alternated wins and losses over their last six games, and since they lost their last game, the pattern would indicate a win tonight.  However, Brooklyn is now playing a Chicago team that is significantly better than the Nets are, and the Bulls have a lot of motivation to win.  Brooklyn’s recent wins have come against Washington without John Wall, Portland without LeMarcus Aldridge, and Toronto without Kyle Lowry.  The Nets have lost to the Hawks twice by a combined 35 points, and Brooklyn lost yesterday afternoon in Milwaukee by 23 points (96-73).  Chicago is the superior team, so we’ll lay the short points in this game on Monday night.                   

10* Play BULLS (-).

Dallas is already locked into the #7 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, so the Mavericks are basically waiting for the regular season to end.  Dallas comes into this game off a double overtime win in Denver on Friday night.  The Mavericks scored 144 points in that game, but they also gave up 143 points.  In fact, Dallas was out-scored 91-71 by the Nuggets over the final 34 minutes of the game.  Dallas had seven players play 28 minutes or more while all four starters played 29 minutes or more, including two starters that played more than 37 minutes.  The Mavericks are a thin team right now as they are nursing injuries, and head coach Rick Carlisle has already hinted that he will rest the majority of his starters either tonight or tomorrow night in Utah.  Regardless of who plays tonight for Dallas, this is not a good situational spot for them, especially since they are laying points on the road.  The Mavericks were actually underdogs in that Denver game, so the line reversal here gives us a lot of value on the Lakers.  

Los Angeles is playing out the string, but the Lakers are actually playing with some motivation.  Los Angeles is playing a young team right now, and those guys are trying to prove themselves.  The Lakers are playing with a lot of energy and pace, and those factors alone give them a good shot in this game.  Los Angeles comes in with some confidence as well after they beat Minnesota 106-98 on Friday night.  The Lakers had tremendous balance inside and out on the perimeter as they scored 52 points in the paint while shooting 39.1% (9-23) from three-point land.  The Lakers’ current lineup is also very good on the glass; they had 46 rebounds, including a whopping 14 offensive rebounds in their last game.  That will be a major factor in this game since Dallas is a terrible rebounding team; they’ve been out-rebounded 254-215 over their last five games.  The last two meetings have been decided by 7 points or less, and since Dallas has nothing to play for, we expect another close game.  We’ll take the points with the Lakers in this game on Sunday night.                     

10* Play LAKERS (+).

Toronto already has a playoff spot locked up, and the Raptors will either finish with the #3 or #4 seed in the Eastern Conference depending how the rest of the season plays out.  The Raptors will have home court advantage at least in the first round regardless, so Toronto wins are not that important right now.  Toronto is playing their third consecutive road game, and they are doing it in four nights.  The Raptors have won their first two games on this trip, including last night’s 101-99 win over Orlando in the final seconds.  Getting that win will come at a cost for Toronto since they had to play their starters longer minutes than intended.  Point guard Kyle Lowry returned after missing seven games with an injury, and he played 33 minutes last night.  “For us, next week is way more important than right now,” Toronto head coach Dwane Casey said.  “We wanted to get him some run, but we didn’t want him going 33 minutes and that was a major concern going down the stretch. That was the only negative, that he played more than we wanted.”  Casey will play it conservative with Lowry tonight, and it wouldn’t surprise if Toronto mails this game in based on the situation.

Miami comes in off an embarrassing 89-78 home loss to Chicago on Thursday night.  The final score doesn’t look bad, but Miami blew a 19-point halftime lead.  The Heat scored just 8 total points in the third quarter, and 27 total points in the second half.  Off that pathetic performance, we expect Miami to bounce back with a strong effort tonight.  Since acquiring point guard Goran Dragic at the All-Star break, Miami has played extremely well at home following a home loss in their previous game.  The Heat are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in this situation as their offense scored 104 points or more in every game while winning the three games by 6, 17, and 11 points.  On the flip side, Toronto has won back-to-back road games three other times this season.  The Raptors have fallen flat in their next game all three times, losing by 14, 5, and 7 points.  Miami is playing for their playoff lives, and reports say the Heat had a spirited practice on Friday in preparation for tonight’s game.  Miami’s offense has been significantly better at home despite their poor showing in their last game; they’ve scored 104 points or more in six of their last eight home games.  Miami is set for a big performance while Toronto is set to regress, so we’ll lay the points with the Heat in this game on Saturday night.                     

10* Play HEAT (-).