Phoenix’s season will come to an end next Tuesday night after the Suns were eliminated from the playoffs with their loss in Dallas on Wednesday night.  The Suns put everything they had into that game, and they looked like a winner late in the fourth quarter.  Phoenix led 100-97 before Dallas ended the game on a 10-4 run.  The Suns were playing a disinterested Dallas team that is locked into the #7 seed, and Phoenix still couldn’t win.  Phoenix went into that game off an embarrassing 96-69 loss in Atlanta the night before, and off the tough loss, this is a terrible situational spot for the Suns.  Now with nothing to play for, we expect a flat effort from the Suns, especially since they will be without two starters, Brandon Knight and Alex Len who are both out with injuries.  Phoenix is a pure jump shooting team from the perimeter, but tonight they will face a New Orleans defense that ranks #1 in the NBA in 3-point defense since January 1st.  The Suns will have a hard time scoring consistent points in this game. 

New Orleans returns home off an embarrassing 110-74 loss in Memphis on Wednesday night.  The Pelicans were in a flat spot for that game after they beat Golden State 103-100 as home underdogs the night before.  The Pelicans have been tremendous when playing at home off a road loss.  In fact, New Orleans is an incredible 11-1 SU in this exact situational spot.  New Orleans’ offense has been tremendous at home this season as they are averaging 101.8 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land.  New Orleans’ defense has also been fantastic recently as they've held five of their last eight opponents to 95 points or less.  New Orleans is fighting for a playoff spot, and since Phoenix is in a terrible spot, we’ll lay the points with the Pelicans in this game on Friday night.                     

10* Play PELICANS (-).

Boston and Philadelphia will complete their 3-game series on Thursday night.  David Buchanan is coming off a great spring for the Phillies.  Buchanan only gave up 3 runs and 14 hits in 21 innings of work.  Buchanan had 15 strikeouts to just two walks in his preseason outings.  Buchanan will face a Boston lineup that inexplicably struggled against Aaron Harang last night, so it’s hard to envision the Red Sox having much success against Buchanan in this game.  Boston will begin a series in New York on Friday night, so they may be looking ahead to that just a bit.  

Boston’s Justin Masterson gets the start for the Red Sox.  Masterson is just 14-21 with a terrible 5.52 ERA in his last 43 starts away from home.  One of those awful outings came in Philadelphia last August when he gave up 5 runs and six hits in only three innings of work.  Jeff Francoeur (9-29) has seen him the most of any active Philadelphia player, and he’s obviously hit him well.  There’s some good value with the home team, so we’ll take Philadelphia on the run line in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play PHILLIES (+1.5 runline).

Atlanta is having a tremendous season, and the Hawks have been the best team in the Eastern Conference since the beginning of the season.  Atlanta has the #1 seed locked up, and they are basically just waiting for the playoffs to begin.  Atlanta’s first round opponent will be either Boston or Brooklyn, and the rumor swirling around is that the Hawks would much prefer to face the Celtics.  If those reports are true, this is a game the Hawks will basically give away.  Besides that tidbit, this is just a terrible scheduling and situational spot for Atlanta.  The Hawks are off back-to-back blowout wins; they beat the Nets by 32 points (131-99) on Saturday night, and they beat the Suns by 27 points (96-69) last night.  Now the Hawks had to travel, and they’ve lost their last two road games.  On top of that, two Atlanta players, Thabo Sefolosha and Pero Antic, got arrested in the wee hours this morning in New York after a nightclub stabbing of Indiana player Chris Copeland.  This is not an ideal spot at all for Atlanta, and with nothing to play for, we don’t expect much of an effort from the Hawks in this game.

Brooklyn is in excellent current form as they are 11-3 over their last fourteen games.  The Nets are also playing with legitimate revenge after getting embarrassed in a 32-point loss in Atlanta just five days ago.  But the Nets were playing their fourth game in five nights while the Hawks had three full days of rest going into that game.  Brooklyn has won their last five home games by an average of 7.2 points per game.  Brooklyn’s offense has been tremendous in their last five games as they’ve averaged 106 points per game on 49.3% shooting from the field and 44.8% shooting from three-point land.  Atlanta’s defense has been terrible in their last six road games as they’ve allowed 107.2 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field.  Brooklyn is fighting for one of the last two playoff spots in the East, and since Atlanta is in a terrible spot, we’ll lay the points with the Nets in this game on Wednesday night.                     

10* Play NETS (-).

Colorado began their season with a resounding 10-0 win over Milwaukee on Monday afternoon.  The Rockies will now start new comer Jordan Lyles on Tuesday night.  The former Astros’ starter went 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA in seven spring starts.  He gave up just 10 hits and 5 earned runs in 22.1 innings of work.  Lyles has had some success against the Brewers, allowing just 1 earned run in his last two starts against them.  Adam Lind (1-7), Jonathan Lucroy (0-9) and Aramis Ramirez (5-21) have had their problems against Lyles.  Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun is questionable for the game after suffering a rib cage injury in Monday’s game.

Milwaukee’s Matt Garza went 2-1 with a 6.95 ERA in six spring starts.  Garza allowed 21 runs and 33 hits in 22 innings of work.  Those numbers are simply terrible, and it’s likely that Garza will struggle in this game, especially against a hot and healthy Colorado lineup.  Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Nolan Arenado all started off the season well as they combined to go 8-13 from the plate.  Lyles had a much better preseason than Garza, so there’s a lot of value in taking Colorado on the run line in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play ROCKIES (+1.5 runline).

Golden State is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA, but the Warriors have their eyes on the playoffs, not a meaningless regular season game like tonight.  Golden State has nothing to play for as the regular winds down as they have locked up the #1 seed, and their non-competitive 107-92 loss in San Antonio on Sunday night might be the sign that the Warriors plan to save themselves for the upcoming playoffs.  Golden State gave their reserves a lot of minutes in that loss to the Spurs, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Warriors rest some of their starters again tonight, especially if they get behind early.  Golden State is playing their final road game of the season tonight, and the spot is not ideal.  The Warriors are playing their seventh road game over their last eight games, and they’ve done it over just fifteen days.  Golden State has to be road weary, and with four home games left on their schedule, the Warriors are not in the best of scheduling spots for this game.

New Orleans is in excellent current form as they are 4-1 SU during their past five games.  The Pelicans return home off a mini 3-game road trip where they went 2-1.  New Orleans did lose their last game in Portland, but the Pelicans have been tremendous when playing at home off a road loss.  In fact, New Orleans is an incredible 10-1 SU and a perfect 11-0 ATS based on tonight’s posted line in this exact situational spot.  The Pelicans are a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS as a home underdog in this situation, and their lone straight-up loss came by just 2 points.  New Orleans’ offense has been tremendous in their last five games as they’ve averaged 103.2 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 47.9% shooting from three-point land.  New Orleans’ defense has also been fantastic in their last five games while holding their opponents to just 92.4 points on 44.4% shooting from the field and 34.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Pelicans took the Warriors to overtime the last time they played on this court, and since New Orleans is fighting for a playoff spot, we’ll take the points with the home underdog on Tuesday night.                     

10* Play PELICANS (+).

Duke and Wisconsin played earlier this season with the Blue Devils winning 80-70 on the Badgers’ home court as a 4-point road underdog.  Duke actually dominated that game as they shot 65.2% (30-46) from the field and 58.3% (7-12) from three-point land.  Duke is an elite offensive team as they score 1.19 points per possession.  Overall, Duke averages 79.2 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  Duke’s defense has been outstanding throughout the tournament.  The Blue Devils have held all five of their opponents to 61 points or less.  Duke has held those five opponents to just 37.4% (108-289) shooting from the field and 26.9% (21-78) shooting from three-point land.  Wisconsin’s offensive strength is shooting the three (30% of their points), but Duke’s perimeter defense is outstanding as only 24% of the points scored on them come from beyond the arc.  The Blue Devils are also comfortable playing slow-down, half-court teams like Wisconsin.  In fact, Duke is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season against Wisconsin, Virginia, San Diego State, and Utah.

Wisconsin is off back-to-back straight-up wins as an underdog, and now they are laying points in the championship game against Duke who has won four of their five tournament games by 14 points or more.  Wisconsin’s offense was tremendous in their last two games against Arizona and Kentucky, two teams with stout defenses.  The Badgers shot 51.6% (48-93) from the field and an incredible 54.3% (19-35) from three-point land in those two games.  Wisconsin out-scored Arizona and Kentucky 57-15 from three-point land, but that’s not going to happen against Duke’s terrific perimeter defense.  Despite their impressive shooting, Wisconsin trailed at the half against Arizona, and they trailed Kentucky by 4 points with a few minutes remaining.  The Badgers have a woeful interior defense with 61% of the points scored upon them coming from 2-point range.  Duke scores 53% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint.  Duke out-shot Wisconsin 68% to 39% from two-point range earlier this season when they played on December 3rd.  Wisconsin has played to their max in their last two games, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to repeat those performances tonight, especially after two straight underdog wins.  The Kentucky upset on Saturday was especially emotional as the Badgers knocked off a 38-0 SU team and also got revenge from their one-point loss in the Final Four last year.  Now, Wisconsin must regroup on just one day's rest and face a Duke squad that won easily by 20 points on Saturday night.  We'll take the value with Duke as an underdog in this game tonight.

10* Play DUKE (+).

Utah has been playing good basketball recently.  The Jazz come into tonight’s game in Phoenix on a 3-game winning streak, and they are on an extended 15-7 run since the All-Star break.  However, Utah has played an extremely weak schedule, especially lately.  Utah’s recent wins have come against the Nuggets, Timberwolves, Lakers, Pistons, Hornets, Knicks, and Sixers.  Utah did beat Oklahoma City and Houston as well, but both of those games came at home and the Jazz were home underdogs in each game.  Utah has had two days of rest for this game, but the Jazz haven’t played well in this situation this season.  Utah is only 4-7 SU with a -2.5 points per game differential when playing on two days of rest.  Utah is 15-22 on the road this season with a -2.4 point differential as well, so this is not an optimal situational spot for the Jazz.                       

Phoenix comes into this game on a 5-game losing streak.  However, the Suns have played a brutal schedule recently with four of their last five losses coming to the Warriors, Blazers (2x), and Thunder.  The Suns are getting a huge class relief tonight against the Jazz, and this isolated home game for Phoenix is one they really need to win.  After tonight’s game, Phoenix has five remaining games with four of them on the road.  The Suns will play in Atlanta, Dallas, New Orleans, and San Antonio before closing out the regular season at home against the Clippers.  Those are five tough games, and tonight’s game against the Jazz is Phoenix’s most winnable game remaining on their schedule.  The Suns are 21-18 at home where they average 103.1 points per game.  Phoenix beat Utah 100-93 on this court earlier this season, and we expect a similar outcome tonight.  We’ll lay the points with the Suns in this game on Saturday night.                      

9* Play SUNS (-).

Kentucky is obviously the best team in the country, and we expect the Wildcats to put on a show in this game, especially since they are motivated after a subpar performance against Notre Dame last week.  Kentucky is an elite team on both ends of the court as they score 1.14 points per possession while only giving up 0.81 points per possession.  Overall, Kentucky averages 74.6 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land.  Kentucky’s defense is only allowing 53.9 points per game on 35.1% shooting from the field and 26.7% shooting from three-point land.  Wisconsin’s offensive strength is shooting the three (30% of their total points), but Kentucky’s perimeter defense is outstanding as only 25% of the points scored on them come from beyond the arc.  This game is also being played in a large football stadium (Lucas Oil) with unusual sight lines which makes outside shooting more difficult.

Wisconsin has been flirting with losses recently as they’ve trailed by 7 points or more in recent games before rallying back to win.  The Badgers’ offense broke out in a big way in their last game against Arizona.  Wisconsin shot 55.6% (25-for-45) from the field and an incredible 66.7% (12-for-18) from three-point land.  Wisconsin out-scored Arizona 36-6 from three-point land, but that’s not going to happen against Kentucky’s terrific perimeter defense.  Despite that impressive shooting against Arizona, Wisconsin still trailed at the half and they only led by 5 points with a few minutes remaining.  The Badgers have a woeful interior defense with 61% of the points scored against them coming from 2-point range.  Kentucky scores 55% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint.  Wisconsin played their max game against Arizona, and they’ll be unable to duplicate that performance tonight.  Kentucky is ready for a breakout game, and they are likely to do it here, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play KENTUCKY (-).

Michigan State is 8-1 SU during their last nine games, and they come into this game off four solid tournament wins.  Michigan State is the second best team in the Big 10, and the gap between them and Wisconsin is much closer than people think.  The fact that Michigan State was slated as a #7 seed was ridiculous.  Michigan State had the best defense in the Big 10 conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 63.2 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Spartans have played overtime twice in their last six games, and if we eliminate those two games, their defense has been even better.  Michigan State has held their other four opponents to 58 points or less on combined shooting of just 34.7% (76-for-219) from the field.

Duke won their first two tournament games easily, but they played inferior competition.  In their next game against San Diego State, the Blue Devils faced a very good defense, but on offense the Aztecs were one of the worst in the entire tournament.  Duke shot 54.5% (30-for-55) from the field and 42.9% (6-for-14) from three-point land on a San Diego State defense that only gave up 0.86 points per possession this season.  Duke’s defense had little to do since the Aztecs’ offense was horrendous at 0.98 points per possession this season.  Duke then faced a Utah team that had an elite offense (1.12 points per possession) and defense (0.89 points per possession).  The Blue Devils survived Utah despite shooting just 44.4% (20-for-45) from the field and 33.3% (3-for-9) from three-point land.  Duke then took their third consecutive jump in class against Gonzaga and Duke pulled away late thanks to a missed layup that would have tied the game with 5:00 remaining and caused a downward spiral for Gonzaga, along with some questionable whistles by the officials.  Duke will now face their toughest opponent as Michigan State is playing their best basketball of the season.  The Spartans are much better than their overall 27-11 SU record indicates as they have played an incredible eight overtime games this season, going just 3-5 SU which means they are 24-6 SU in all other games.  We'll take the points in this game on Saturday night.        

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE (+).

New Orleans came thru with an easy Bet Bet winner for us on Wednesday night, and we’ll come right back with the Pelicans for all the same reasons.  New Orleans is in excellent current form.  The Pelicans are off three straight blowout wins; they beat Minnesota by 22 points, they beat the Kings by 14 points, and the beat the Lakers by 21 points.  Those wins were preceded by a 4-game losing streak, but to be fair, the Pelicans faced the Suns, Warriors, Clippers, and Rockets in those four losses.  The step-down in class has certainly helped New Orleans, and that will be the case once again tonight in Sacramento against the Kings.  The Pelicans’ offense has been tremendous in their last three games as they’ve scored a total of 325 points on 54.9% (130-237) shooting from the field and 49% (24-49) shooting from three-point land.  New Orleans’ defense was also fantastic in those games while holding their opponents to just 92 points or less in each game on combined shooting of 43.9% (104-237) from the field and 32.6% (14-43) from three-point land.   

Sacramento is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s home game.  The Kings are returning home off a 4-game road trip that started in Phoenix and ended in Houston.  The Kings have had just one day off since returning home, and they exerted a lot of energy in their last game against the Rockets.  Sacramento was down by 11 points going into the fourth quarter before making a big rally and coming up short in a 115-111 loss.  The Kings shot 50% (48-96) from the field and 50% (7-14) from three-point land in that game, and they were still trailing by double digits.  Sacramento has now lost three consecutive games by an average of 10.7 points per game, and now they are facing one of the hottest teams in the NBA.  New Orleans just beat Sacramento by 14 points (102-88) on March 27th, and we expect another easy win by the Pelicans in this game.  New Orleans is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Pelicans in this game on Friday night.                      

10* Play PELICANS (-).

Charlotte is playing good basketball right now despite the Hornets being just 2-4 over their last six games.  Charlotte has a positive efficiency rating over those six games despite the losing record.  The Hornets only lost by 3 points to the Nets, and they lost by 3 points in overtime to the Wizards.  Those two games could have gone either way, and if the Hornets caught the breaks at the end, they would be 4-2 over their last six games.  Charlotte comes in off an impressive 102-78 home win over the Pistons on Wednesday night.  The Hornets had six players score 11 points or more, and they never trailed in that game.  Charlotte’s offense has been terrific recently as they’ve scored 102 points or more in four straight games.  The Hornets’ scoring ways will continue tonight against an Indiana defense that has declined dramatically in their recent games.              

Indiana was one of the hottest teams in the NBA coming out of the All-Star break.  But since winning nine of their first ten games out of the break, the Pacers are just 2-9 over their last eleven games.  Indiana’s two wins came by just 5 and 2 points, and in fact, the Pacers are on an ugly 0-10-1 ATS run based on tonight’s posted line.  Indiana’s defense has been atrocious recently as they’ve allowed 100 points or more in eight of their last ten games.  Over their last five games, Charlotte has a +4.2 point differential while Indiana has a -3.0 point differential over their last five games.  All three meetings this season have been close with one game going to overtime while the other two were decided by 3 total points.  We expect this game to come right down to the wire once again, so we’ll take the points with the Hornets in this game on Friday night.                      

9* Play HORNETS (+).

New Orleans comes into tonight’s game in good current form.  The Pelicans are off back-to-back blowout wins; they beat Minnesota by 22 points and they beat the Kings by 14 points.  Those wins were preceded by a 4-game losing streak, but to be fair, the Pelicans faced the Suns, Warriors, Clippers, and Rockets in those four losses.  The step-down in class has certainly helped New Orleans, and that will be the case once again tonight in Los Angeles against the Lakers.  The Pelicans’ offense has been tremendous in their last two games as they scored a total of 212 points on 54.1% (86-159) shooting from the field and 45.5% (15-33) shooting from three-point land.  New Orleans’ defense was also fantastic in those games while holding their opponents to just 88 points in each game on combined shooting of 43.5% (67-154) from the field and 33.3% (9-27) from three-point land.   

Los Angeles is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s home game.  The Lakers are returning home off a 5-game road trip that started in Oklahoma City and ended in Philadelphia.  The Lakers had to play those five games in seven days, and they’ve had just one day off since returning home.  Los Angeles has not fared well when playing at home off a road game this season.  The Lakers are just 3-13 SU in this situational spot with their average loss coming by 8.3 points per game.  Los Angeles had to face New Orleans in this exact situation earlier this season and the Pelicans won by 17 points (104-87).  Los Angeles is just 4-12 SU over their last 16 games with their wins coming against terrible teams; Philadelphia (2x), Minnesota, and Detroit.  Off their last three SU wins, Los Angeles has lost their next game by an average of 9.3 points per game.  New Orleans is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Pelicans in this game on Wednesday night.                      

10* Play PELICANS (-).

Stanford comes into tonight’s game with a 22-13 record while Old Dominion has a solid 27-7 record.  Stanford has the name recognition, and therefore the oddsmakers had no choice but to make them the favorites in this game.  However, based on my raw power ratings, Old Dominion should be a 2-point favorite in this game.  After adjusting for strength of schedule, Stanford should be at max a 2-point favorite.  There’s value on Old Dominion in this game, especially now that the line has gone up to Stanford -3.  The Cardinal need to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, Stanford is not going to get their preferred pace in this game.  Stanford has been held to 70 points or less in seven games away from home this season.  The Cardinal are just 1-6 SU and 1-6 ATS in those games based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  Stanford’s defense has been atrocious away from home this season.  The Cardinal are giving up 76.5 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land.

Old Dominion is a terrific team that has a fantastic defense.  The Monarchs play at an extremely slow pace while their defense only allows 0.90 points per possession.  Old Dominion’s defense has been terrific all season as they are holding opponents to just 56.8 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.  Old Dominion has held 31 of their 34 opponents to 69 points or less, and they’ll do it again tonight against Stanford.  Old Dominion owns a huge defensive edge in this game, and their slow pace will take Stanford out of their comfort zone.  We’ll take the points with the Monarchs in this game on Tuesday night.       

10* Play OLD DOMINION (+).

Miami Florida and Temple play a similar style of basketball as both teams like to play at a slower pace while running offensive sets in the half-court.  Miami opened as a small 1-point favorite, but money has come in on Temple making them a 1-point favorite and the line has risen even higher to -1.5 at some of the more public and square sportsbooks.  My power ratings agree with the opener, and after adjusting for strength of schedule, my numbers say Miami should be a 3-point favorite.  The reason the line likely moved is because Miami guard Angel Rodriguez is doubtful with a wrist injury.  However, Rodriguez is a poor outside shooter (30% three-point range) and he has already missed the past two NIT games and Miami went a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS, so this injury is overrated.  The Hurricanes have been more impressive against tougher opponents this season than Temple.  Miami won at Florida and at Duke, and they only lost by 5 points at Notre Dame and by 2 points at Louisville.  The Hurricanes are battle tested, and they’ve proven they can hang with the good teams away from home.  Overall, Miami has a solid offense and a solid defense.  The Hurricanes average 1.06 points per possession on offense and they only allow 0.98 points per possession on defense.

Temple was awful early in the season, but the Owls were much improved late in the season.  However, Temple played an extremely weak schedule, and when they had to step-up in class, their results were poor.  Temple lost by 20 points to Duke, 23 points to Villanova, 16 points to Tulsa, and 13 points to SMU.  Temple has to rely on their defense to win because their offense is not good; the Owls only average 0.99 points per possession.  Overall, Temple averages just 59.6 points per game on 34.1% shooting from the field and 26.4% shooting from three-point land in neutral court games this season.  Miami is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Hurricanes in this game on Tuesday night.        

9* Play MIAMI, FL (+).

Phoenix is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Portland.  The Suns hosted the Thunder last night, and they blew a 20-point lead en route to a 109-97 loss.  Phoenix dominated the first half as they scored 62 points, but they were terrible in the second half as they scored just 35 points.  That was a huge loss for the Suns and their playoff hopes, and it’s highly likely they’ll play tonight’s game with a hangover.  Phoenix will be playing on a back-to-back set while going from a home game to a road game.  The Suns have played in three similar spots this season, and the results have not been pretty.  Phoenix is 0-3 SU and ATS in this situational spot with their three losses coming by 27, 13, and 19 points.  Their defense was horrendous in all three of those games as well as they gave up 118, 120, and 106 points.         

Portland comes into tonight’s game in good current form.  The Trail Blazers are on a 3-game winning streak after they slogged thru a 5-game losing streak.  Two of their recent wins have come on the road, including an 87-81 win in Phoenix over the Suns last Friday night.  Portland’s last game came at home, and they scored 120 points after shooting 56.5% (48-85) from the field and 44.4% (8-18) from three-point land.  Portland’s offense has been tremendous in their last four home games.  The Blazers have scored 120, 108, 118, and 105 points in those games.  Overall, Portland averages 103.2 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Portland crushed Phoenix 108-87 in February on this court, and we expect another double digit win tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Trail Blazers in this game on Monday night.                      

9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-).

Duke is obviously a good team as they come into this game with a 32-4 record.  They won their first two tournament games easily, but they played inferior competition.  In their next game against San Diego State, the Blue Devils faced a very good defense, but an offense that was one of the worst in the entire tournament.  Duke shot 54.5% (30-55) from the field and 42.9% (6-14) from three-point land on a San Diego State defense that only gave up 0.86 points per possession this season.  Duke’s defense had little to do since the Aztecs’ offense was horrendous at 0.98 points per possession this season.  Duke then faced a Utah team that had an elite offense (1.12 points per possession) and defense (0.89 points per possession).  The Blue Devils survived Utah despite shooting just 44.4% (20-45) from the field and 33.3% (3-9) from three-point land.  Now Duke will be taking their third consecutive jump in class, and since Gonzaga is rated higher than Duke in my power ratings, the Blue Devils are a clear play against in this game. 

Gonzaga’s road to the Elite 8 has been an easy one, and they haven’t had to extend themselves.  The Bulldogs have dominated all three of their opponents, so they are still a fresh team late in the tournament.  This year’s Gonzaga team is the best that has played in the tournament, and not one of their paper tiger teams that got knocked out early.  Gonzaga has a terrific +16.9 point differential this season, and that shows how dominant of a team they’ve been.  The Bulldogs’ defense is outstanding as they are holding opponents to just 61.7 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Gonzaga offense is averaging 78.6 points per game on 51.8% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land.  Gonzaga should be favored in this game, so there’s a lot of value which means we’ll take the points with the Bulldogs in this game on Sunday night.       

9* Play GONZAGA (+).

Louisville comes into this game with a 27-8 record, but the Cardinals are certainly a surprise to still be playing.  The Cardinals are a good team, but they are up against it in this game against Michigan State.  Louisville had two easy opponents in UC Irvine and NC State, and they upset Northern Iowa after playing way over their heads on offense.  Louisville’s offense is extremely weak as they only average 1.03 points per possession.  Overall, the Cardinals average 68.9 points per game, but they only shoot 43.1% from the field and 30.6% from three-point land.  Over their last five games, Louisville’s offense has been even worse while averaging just 63.4 points per game.  Louisville imposes their will by playing slow, half-court basketball while trying to wear opponents out with their press.  But their usual edge will be missing in this game as Michigan State is quite content in playing a physical, defensive grinder. 

Michigan State is 7-1 over their last eight games, and they come into this game off three solid tournament wins.  Michigan State is the second best team in the Big 10, and the gap between them and Wisconsin is much closer than people think.  The fact that Michigan State was slated as a #7 seed was a joke.  Michigan State had the best defense in the Big 10 conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 63 points per game on 39.4% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land this season.  Michigan State is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans in this game on Sunday afternoon.        

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

Notre Dame has had a nice season as the Irish come into this game with a 32-5 record.  Notre Dame had an easy draw in their first two games of this tournament with games against Northeastern and a banged-up Butler team.  Despite the weaker opponents, Notre Dame could have very well lost either of those games; they only beat Northeastern 69-65 and they needed overtime to beat Butler 67-64.  Notre Dame then took a major step-up in class against Wichita State, a team with a very strong defense.  The Irish shot incredibly well in that game as they hit 55.6% (30-54) from the field and 47.4% (9-19) from three-point land.  Notre Dame shot that well against a Wichita State defense that only gave up 0.88 points per possession.  Notre Dame is now facing the best defense in the country as Kentucky only gives up 0.81 points per possession, and it’s highly unlikely the Irish will repeat their shooing performance in this game.  If their three’s are not falling, Notre Dame will get run out of the gym in this game.     

Kentucky is obviously the best team in the country, and we expect the Wildcats to strut their stuff tonight.  Kentucky hasn’t played their ‘A’ game yet in this tournament, but with Notre Dame getting all the publicity for their last game, we expect Kentucky to go all out in this game.  Kentucky is an elite team on both ends of the court as they score 1.14 points per possession while only giving up 0.81 points per possession.  Overall, Kentucky averages 74.8 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land.  Kentucky’s defense is only allowing 53.5 points per game on 34.8% shooting from the field and 26.7% shooting from three-point land.  Notre Dame’s weakness is defense, especially on the road where they allow 68.9 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land.  Kentucky is the superior team with the significantly better defense, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Saturday night.          

10* Play KENTUCKY (-).

Arizona has played exceptional basketball all season.  The Wildcats come into this game with a sterling 34-3 record, and they’ve won fourteen consecutive games.  Arizona is an elite team on both ends of the court as they score 1.12 points per possession and only give up 0.86 points per possession.  Overall, Arizona averages 76.6 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land.  The Wildcats’ defense is only giving up 59 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona has also faced the tougher opponents to reach the Elite 8 based on my power ratings, including an easy win over a severely under-seeded Ohio State team.     

Wisconsin’s path to the Elite 8 has been easier than Arizona’s, and the Badgers should have lost to North Carolina on Thursday night.  Wisconsin has been flirting with losses recently as they’ve trailed by 7 points or more in a slew of recent games before rallying back to win.  Wisconsin has a woeful interior defense with 61% of the points scored upon them coming from 2-point range.  Arizona scores 56% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint.  Wisconsin’s offense is highly efficient with 30% of their points coming from 3-point range, but Arizona’s perimeter defense is strong as only 27% of the points scored on them come from beyond the arc.  These two teams are real close, but with Arizona having the defensive edge, we’ll back the Wildcats in this game on Saturday night.  

9* Play ARIZONA (-).

Oklahoma is a good team with a terrific head coach in Lon Kruger, but the Sooners are up against it in this game against Michigan State.  Oklahoma got two dream setups for their first two games of the tournament, but the Sooners were sluggish in both games.  In their first game, Oklahoma played an overmatched Albany team that upset their conference tournament on a last-second shot.  Oklahoma then faced Dayton in their second game, and the Flyers were playing their third game in five days, and their sixth game in ten days.  Despite their opponents being in terrible scheduling and situational spots, Oklahoma only won both games by single digits.  Oklahoma wasn’t a good road team this season as they went just 5-6 in true road games, and just 10-9 overall away from home.  The Sooners only have a +1.2 point differential in away games this season while Michigan State is 13-7 in away games with a +5.3 point differential.  Those numbers clearly show that the Spartans played much better basketball than the Sooners away from home this season.

Michigan State is 6-1 over their last seven games, and they come into this game off a pair of solid tournament wins.  The Spartans completely dominated Virginia from the opening tip in their last game, and the Cavaliers would have been my second highest rated team if they made the Sweet 16.  Michigan State is the second best team in the Big 10, and the gap between them and Wisconsin is much closer than people think.  The fact that Michigan State was slated as a #7 seed was a joke.  Michigan State had the best defense in the Big 10 conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 63.1 points per game on 39.5% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land this season.  Michigan State is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans on Friday night.        

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

Duke is obviously a good team as they come into tonight’s game with a 31-4 record.  They won their first two tournament games easily, but they played inferior competition.  In their last game against San Diego State, the Blue Devils faced a very good defense, but an offense that was one of the worst in the entire tournament.  Duke shot 54.5% (30-55) from the field and 42.9% (6-14) from three-point land on a San Diego State defense that only gave up 0.86 points per possession this season.  Duke’s defense had little to do since the Aztecs’ offense was horrendous at 0.98 points per possession this season.  Duke will now face a Utah team that is elite on both ends of the court as their offense averages 1.12 points per possession while their defense holds opponents to just 0.89 points per possession.  Duke is taking a monumental step-up in class versus Utah in this game.     

Utah won a difficult match-up against Stephen F. Austin in their first tournament game.  The Utes then took care of Georgetown rather easily, and now we expect Utah to take Duke right down to the wire.  Utah has their best team in a decade, and they match-up extremely well against Duke.  Utah has a terrific +14.1 point differential this season, and that shows how dominant of a team they’ve been.  The Utes’ defense is outstanding as they are holding opponents to just 57.2 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 31.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Utah offense is averaging 71.3 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  Utah is just as good as Duke, so we’ll take the points with the Utes in this game on Friday night.       

9* Play UTAH (+).

Golden State is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA, but the Warriors have their eyes on the playoffs, not a meaningless regular season game like tonight.  Golden State is also set to play six of their next seven games on the road with five of those games against playoff bound teams from the Western Conference.  It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Warriors rest some of their starters, especially if they get behind early.  Golden State is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS over their last seven games while winning six of those games by 31, 18, 31, 19, 16, and 15 points.  That type of dominance is simply unsustainable, and we don’t expect the Warriors to repeat their last performance in Portland.  Golden State scored 122 points after shooting 60.2% (50-83) from the field and 46.2% (12-26) from three-point land.  

Memphis was terrible in their last home game, a 111-89 loss to Cleveland.  That was Memphis’ worst home loss since 2013, and off such an embarrassing performance, we expect a big bounce back effort tonight.  Heavy money came in on the Grizzlies in their last game, and Memphis was a 3.5-point home favorite over Golden State the last time they met in December; the Grizzlies won that game 105-98.  With Memphis off the blowout loss, the line is grossly inflated and there’s tremendous line value on the Grizzlies in this game.  Memphis is 27-8 at home this season where they own a +6.3 point differential.  Memphis’ defense is holding opponents to just 94 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 33.2% shooting from three-point land.  Memphis is greatly undervalued in this game, and since they were embarrassed in their last home game, we’ll take the points with the Grizzlies in this game on Friday night.                   

9* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

North Carolina is playing at a much higher level now than they were earlier this season.  Going into the ACC tournament, North Carolina was just 4-6 SU over their previous ten games.  Now the Tar Heels are 5-1 SU during their past six games since the start of the ACC tournament with their lone loss coming in the title game to Notre Dame.  UNC's forward Kennedy Meeks is doubtful tonight due to a knee injury, however Meeks has been less of an offensive factor during the past month, averaging just 7.1 points in the past eight games, compared to 12.8 ppg in his first 28 games.  In their two NCAA tournament games, North Carolina has been impressive because they’ve had to play two totally different styles.  In their first game against Harvard, the Tar Heels had to face an extremely slow, half-court team and they squeaked out a 67-65 win.  Then UNC had to face the extremely fast-paced, full-court press of Arkansas for a full 40 minutes; the Tar Heels won 87-78.  Now North Carolina will now face Wisconsin who has the reputation of a slow, half-court team.  But the Badgers have played more of an offensive style this season, so North Carolina won’t be forced into a half-court grinder in this game.  North Carolina’s offense has been outstanding over their last five games as they are averaging 75.4 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 42.4% shooting from three-point land.  North Carolina has also played much tougher opponents than Wisconsin in the tournament according to my power ratings.

Wisconsin’s path to the Sweet 16 has been easy as the Badgers faced a pair of low-rated teams.  Tonight’s game against North Carolina is going to be extremely difficult for Wisconsin because they simply do not have the quickness to match-up with the Tar Heels.  In their game against Arkansas, it was obvious that North Carolina’s speed off the dribble was overwhelming to the Razorbacks, and they are a quick team.  The Badgers are much slower than Arkansas, so it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to keep North Carolina from driving to the basket.  Wisconsin has a woeful interior defense with 61% of the points scored upon them coming from 2-point range.  North Carolina scores a whopping 64% of their points from inside the arc, so they have a huge edge inside the paint.  Wisconsin’s offense is highly efficient with 30% of their points coming from 3-point range and 52% of their points coming from 2-point range.  But North Carolina’s perimeter defense is strong (28% of points allowed) while their interior defense has been tremendous (49% of points allowed).  North Carolina is a poor match-up for Wisconsin, so we’ll take the points in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play NORTH CAROLINA (+).

Notre Dame has had a nice season as the Irish come into this game with a 31-5 SU record.  Notre Dame had an easy draw in their first two games of this tournament facing Northeastern and a banged-up Butler team.  Despite the weaker opponents, Notre Dame could have very well lost both of those games; they only beat Northeastern 69-65 and they needed overtime to beat Butler 67-64.  Notre Dame is now taking a major step-up in class against Wichita State, and a repeat of either of their first two games will get them run off the court tonight.  The Irish are a perfect 5-0 during their last five games, but they haven’t been too impressive in any of those wins.  Notre Dame only has a +6.4 point differential in those games despite their offense averaging 74 points per game while shooting an incredible 50.6% from the field and 38.2% from three-point land.  With offensive numbers like that, Notre Dame should have been winning in blowouts.  Notre Dame’s weakness is defense, especially on the road where they allow 68.9 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land.

Wichita State comes into this game with a 30-4 SU record.  The Shockers got screwed by the tournament committee with a #7 seed.  Based on my power ratings, Wichita State deserved a 2-seed as they are rated higher than all the #3 and #4 seeds, including Notre Dame who is a #3 seed.  Wichita State has been terrific on offense in the tournament; the Shockers have scored 159 points in their two games.  Overall, Wichita State has an efficient offense that averages 69.2 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land.  Wichita State’s defense has held 31 of their 34 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Overall, the Shockers are only allowing 56.7 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 34.0% shooting from three-point land.  Wichita State is the better team with the significantly better defense, so we’ll lay the points with the Shockers in this game on Thursday night.          

10* Play WICHITA STATE (-).

Cleveland continues to roll along as they are now 27-6 SU over their last 33 games.  However, all six losses have come on the road, and tonight will be Cleveland’s 14th road game over their last 19 games.  The Cavaliers seem to be running on fumes, but they’ve been able to get away with it because of the weak schedule they’ve played.  Cleveland has faced Milwaukee, Indiana, Brooklyn, Miami and Orlando over their last five games.  All five of those teams are either mediocre or poor, so Cleveland’s easy wins in those games mean nothing.  The Cavaliers are taking a monumental step-up in class tonight against Memphis who is a certified legitimate NBA title contender.  Cleveland handled Memphis easy earlier this season; the Cavaliers won 105-91.  But that game was on their home court, and the difference in the game was 3-point shooting.  Cleveland hit 50% (7-14) from beyond the arc while the Grizzlies only shot 6.2% (1-16) from three-point land.  Tonight’s game will be played on Memphis’ terms, and their defense has been terrific at home all season long.

Memphis had to play a brutal schedule out of the All-Star break.  Memphis faced a slew of back-to-back sets and terrible travel situations.  They also had to do that while battling injuries, but things are back to normal now, so Memphis should begin playing up to their potential.  Memphis comes into tonight’s game on a 3-game winning streak, and they are 5-1 over their last six games.  Memphis has played three of their last four games on the road, so we can expect a peak effort tonight at home, especially since they are playing with legitimate revenge.  The Grizzlies are 27-7 at home this season where they own a +7.1 point differential.  Memphis’ defense is holding opponents to just 93.5 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 32.9% shooting from three-point land.  Memphis is undervalued in this game, and since Cleveland is road weary, we’ll back the Grizzlies at home on Wednesday night.

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Miami has been an improved team since trading for Goran Dragic.  The Heat are now contending for a playoff spot, and they are 7-5 SU during their last twelve games.  However, all of those wins came at home while Miami is 0-3 SU in their three road games during their recent stretch.  Going back a bit further, Miami is just 2-8 SU in their last ten road games with the two wins coming over hapless teams like the Knicks and Magic.  The Heat needed overtime to beat Orlando as well, so it’s quite clear Miami is a much better team at home than on the road.  Miami hasn’t had any success against Milwaukee this season as the Heat are 0-3 SU and ATS against the Bucks with the three losses coming by a total of 38 points.  The games have not been close, especially the 109-85 blowout loss in Milwaukee.  There’s nothing that suggests the outcome of tonight’s game will be any different, especially with the Bucks in a good spot to get back to their winning ways.

Milwaukee made an interesting trade at the deadline when they shipped Brandon Knight to Phoenix and got Michael Carter-Williams from Philadelphia.  The move was made with an eye towards the future which was strange since the Bucks are contending for a playoff spot this season.  And the trade hasn’t been a success as the Bucks are just 4-13 SU since trading away Knight.  However, the poor record can certainly be attributed to the brutal schedule they’ve played, injuries, and simple bad luck at the end of games.  Milwaukee has faced Cleveland, San Antonio, Memphis, Golden State, Atlanta, and New Orleans (twice) in recent games.  Not many teams are going to come out of that gauntlet with a winning record.  The Bucks were also missing their two best bench players as O.J. Mayo and Jared Dudley have been out with injuries.  Both guys might return to the court tonight.  Milwaukee lost two games in overtime, one game by a single point, and three other games by single digits.  Milwaukee is now healthy and they finally get an opponent on their level.  This is a good spot for a big win, so we’ll back the Bucks in this game on Tuesday night.          

10* Play BUCKS (+).

Washington was a team we wrote off right around the All-Star break.  The Wizards were in free-fall as they lost 11 of 13 games during that stretch.  But then Washington turned things around, and they started playing good basketball again just as they did early in the season.  The Wizards had won five consecutive games, and they were 6-1 over a 7-game stretch and 7-2 over a 9-game span.  Washington was playing terrific on both ends of the court during their winning streak, and they owned an outstanding +14.8 point differential in those games.  But the Wizards have now lost back-to-back games since their winning streak; they lost by 14 points to the Clippers and last night they lost by 23 to the Kings.  The loss in Los Angeles was misleading as the game was in reach until the final minutes of the fourth quarter.  And last night’s game was a complete toss as Washington only played one starter more than 27 minutes in preparation for tonight’s game against Golden State.  The Wizards are sure to come with their best effort in this game tonight, and they are also playing the Warriors at a good time.

Golden State is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA, but the Warriors have their eyes on the playoffs, not a meaningless non-conference regular season game like tonight.  Golden State also has a much more important game tomorrow night in Portland, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Warriors’ starters play limited minutes tonight.  Golden State is also set to play seven of their next eight games on the road with six of those games against playoff bound teams from the Western Conference.  This is a spot and an opponent that the Warriors can easily overlook, and even if they don’t, the backdoor will be open in the fourth quarter when Golden State will likely be playing their bench.  Golden State is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS during their current 6-game home stand while winning four of those games by 31, 19, 16, and 15 points.  That type of dominance is simply unsustainable, and in a bad scheduling spot, we don’t expect the Warriors to go all out in this game.  Washington will bring their best effort, so we’ll take the generous points with the Wizards in this game on Monday night.    

10* Play WIZARDS (+).

Louisville was very fortunate to escape with a win over UC Irvine on Friday.  The Cardinals won that game 57-55 on a pair of free throws with seconds remaining.  Louisville played a terrible game, and that was against a mediocre team.  Louisville’s opponent in this game is a major step-up in class, and if they repeat that performance, they’ll have no shot in this game.  Louisville plays at a slow pace, and they are a solid defensive team.  However, their opponent plays exactly the same way, only Northern Iowa does it exceptionally better on the offensive end of the court.  The Cardinals’ offense has not been good all season as they average 68.8 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land.  Louisville’s offense will struggle mightily against the stout Northern Iowa defense in this game.                

Northern Iowa is a very good team that got shafted with a #5 seed.  The Panthers come into today’s game with a 31-3 record, and based on my power ratings, they should have been a #3 seed.  Northern Iowa is a hungry and humble team, and their success hasn’t made them complacent at all.  “They want more,” Northern Iowa head coach Ben Jacobson said.  “There hasn’t been a point in the season where I felt like they’ve been satisfied with a particular game or particular win.”  Northern Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country, and we full expect them to shutdown Louisville in this game.  Northern Iowa is only giving up 54.3 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  The Panthers also own a highly efficient offense that shoots 48.2% from the field and 40.1% from three-point land.  Northern Iowa is better than Louisville despite the teams playing the same style, so we’ll lay the points with the Panthers in this game on Sunday night.   

9* Play NORTHERN IOWA (-).

Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 28-6 record this season, and their #4 seed in the tournament.  However, the Terrapins are one of the phoniest teams in college basketball as their record was built on an extremely weak non-conference schedule and an 18-1 home record.  Maryland’s defense has been terrible away from home this season, and their inability to get consistent stops will ultimately be their downfall in this tournament.  The Terrapins give up 67.8 points per game on 41.4% shooting form the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land.  Maryland’s offense has also struggled mightily away from home this season.  The Terrapins are only averaging 64.8 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 34.1% shooting from three-point land.   

West Virginia plays to the personality of their head coach Bob Huggins.  The Mountaineers are a tough, scrappy team that lays everything on the court.  West Virginia is back to being a healthy team, so we expect them to play to their early season level.  The Mountaineers’ offense has been significantly better this year as they are averaging 73.8 points per game.  West Virginia has played terrific offense in neutral court games this season as they are averaging 79 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land.  West Virginia has a lot of upside now that they have a healthy roster while Maryland’s fortunate season comes to an end.  We’ll back West Virginia in this game on Sunday night.  

9* Play WEST VIRGINIA (+).

Kansas is one of the phoniest #2 seeds in recent memory, and my power ratings believe the Jayhawks should have been seeded much lower.  Kansas had an easy win on Friday against an overmatched New Mexico State team, but things will be much different in this game.  Kansas is now the overmatched team, and the Jayhawks are likely to be exposed in this game.  Kansas is only 8-5 SU during their last thirteen games with two wins over Baylor, two wins over TCU, a win over Texas, and a win over Texas Tech.  Clearly, Kansas has beat nothing in terms of competition, and this game against Wichita State is a major step-up in class.  The Jayhawks’ offense has struggled mightily away from home this season.  Kansas is only averaging 66.8 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field.  The Jayhawks shot well over their heads in their last game as they hit 54% (27-50) from the field and 69.2% (9-13) from three-point land.  Kansas should regress sharply in this game, especially against stout Wichita State defense off a poor performance.

Wichita State comes into this game with a 29-4 SU record.  The Shockers got screwed by the tournament committee with a #7 seed.  Based on my power ratings, Wichita State deserved a much better seeding as they are rated higher than all the #3 and #4 seeds, and greater than Kansas who is a #2 seed.  Wichita State knows they got the shaft, and we expect a big effort, especially since in-state school Kansas has refused to play them in the regular season.  Wichita State has held 30 of their 33 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Overall, the Shockers are only allowing 56.4 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  Wichita State also has an efficient offense that averages 69 points per game on 44.2% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land.  Wichita State is the better team, so we’ll take the points with the Shockers in this game on Sunday.          

10* Play WICHITA STATE (+).

Virginia is obviously having an excellent season as they come into this game with an impressive 30-3 record.  But Virginia is just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS over their last four games with their two wins coming over inferior teams Belmont and Florida State.  The Cavaliers’ two losses have come against Louisville and North Carolina, and now they are playing a Michigan State team that is better than both of those two teams.  Virginia is basically maxed out, both in terms of talent and what they can do on the court.  The team can’t go any higher, and their recent play has actually suggested they are on the way down.  Tony Bennett is an excellent coach and Virginia plays tremendous team defense, but this game is simply a terrible matchup for the Cavaliers.  Virginia is used to playing in defensive grinders, but the Spartans are also comfortable playing in a slugfest.  That eliminates Virginia’s biggest edge of controlling the pace and playing half-court basketball, and that will be a major factor in this game.

Michigan State is 5-1 over their last six games, and they come into today’s game off a solid win over Georgia on Friday.  Michigan State is the second best team in the Big 10, and the gap between them and Wisconsin is much closer than people think.  The fact that Michigan State was slated as a #7 seed was a joke.  Michigan State had the best defense in the Big 10 conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 63.4 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  Michigan State is undervalued in this game, and since Virginia has already peaked out, we’ll take the points with the Spartans on Sunday afternoon.        

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (+).

Arkansas had an extremely difficult match-up with Wofford in their first game, and we are impressed that the Razorbacks were able to win that game.  Wofford slowed the game to a crawl, taking Arkansas out of their comfort zone.  Arkansas is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best, and they will get their preferred pace tonight against North Carolina.  Because of that, we expect a much better performance by the Razorbacks in this game.  Arkansas has an explosive offense that is averaging 77.4 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 35.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Razorbacks’ style gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition, and they will not be in awe of North Carolina’s speed and pace.  Arkansas is just as good as North Carolina, and this game will come right down to the final whistle.       

North Carolina is not a fundamentally sound team at all, and Arkansas usually feasts on teams like this.  The Tar Heels overwhelm opponents with their pace of play, and most times, North Carolina simply has the better players.  But that is not the case at all against Arkansas, so the Tar Heels’ normal advantages are negated.  North Carolina’s defense allows 70.9 points per game away from home this season, and they are 0-6 SU the last six times they gave up 70 points or more.  Based on the expected pace of this game, Arkansas is just about a sure thing to easily eclipse the 70-point mark in this game.  These two teams are equals, and since my power ratings only make North Carolina a 1-point favorite, we’ll take the points with Arkansas in this game on Saturday night.                     

10* Play ARKANSAS (+).

Game analysis will be ready at 1 pm ET.

9* Play UTAH (-).

NC State is a pretty good team, but Villanova is significantly better.  The Wolfpack were fortunate to advance as LSU simply gave the game away on Thursday night.  NC State played much better basketball on their home court this season, and they were extremely vulnerable when playing on the road.  That was clearly evident against LSU, and now NC State is taking a monumental step-up in class, and we don’t see how they can be competitive in this game.  The Wolfpack went 14-6 at home, but they are just 7-7 on the road.  The biggest difference was the play of NC State’s defense as they simply could not get stops, especially when playing in unfamiliar arenas.  In neutral court games, the Wolfpack allow 73.8 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from three-point land.  That poor defensive play will continue in this game, especially against one of the best offenses in college basketball. 

Villanova is an excellent team that has steamrolled their opponents this season.  The Wildcats are 33-2 on the season, including an incredible 18-2 away from home.  Villanova has an exceptional offense that is averaging 76.7 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 39.2% from three-point land.  The Wildcats’ offense has been just as good away from home this season as they are averaging 73.3 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  Villanova also has an elite defense that is holding opponents to 60.6 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 30.6% shooting from three-point land.  My power ratings make Villanova a solid 13.5-point favorite in this game, so there’s value in the pointspread.  We’ll lay the points with Villanova in this game on Saturday night.      

9* Play VILLANOVA (-).

Georgia State and Xavier are virtually mirror images of each other.  The two teams have identical efficiency ratings on offense and defense, making this game likely to come right down to the final few possessions.  Georgia State is my highest rated 14-seed in the tournament by a wide margin while Xavier is my second lowest rated 6-seed.  These two teams are much closer than the pointspread suggests, and there’s a lot of value on the underdog.  Georgia State has high quality players that not many recognize.  Kevin Ware transferred from Louisville, Ryan Harrow transferred from Kentucky, and R.J. Hunter is the coach’s son; he’s slated to be a first round pick in the upcoming NBA draft.  Harrow did not play against Baylor due to a nagging hamstring injury, and he’ll likely be out again.  But Georgia State plays complete team basketball while relying on a slow pace and an excellent defense.  The Panthers are holding their opponents to just 62.2 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land.          

Xavier got the perfect setup in their first game on Thursday as they were catching Mississippi off a play-in game on Tuesday night.  The Rebels also made a huge comeback in that game, so they were simply playing on tired legs and Xavier took full advantage.  Xavier has no such edge in this game, so we expect this game to be close throughout and come right down to the wire.  Xavier is only 8-6 over their last fourteen games with four of those wins coming by 6 points or less.  The Musketeers have played in 19 games away from home this season, and they either lost or won fourteen of those games by single digits.  Xavier went just 5-7 in true road games this season, and overall, the Musketeers are just 9-10 on the road.  Xavier only has a +1.0 point differential away from home, and they are just 5-14 ATS away from home based on the posted spread.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Georgia State in this early game on Saturday night.  

9* Play GEORGIA STATE (+).

Arizona is obviously one of the best teams in the country.  The Wildcats come into tonight’s game against Ohio State with a sterling 32-3 record on the season, but this is an extremely difficult matchup for a #2 seed.  Arizona cruised to an easy 93-72 win over Texas Southern on Thursday afternoon.  The Wildcats played a perfect game as they shot 60.4% (32-53) from the field and 45.5% (5-11) from three-point land.  They also hit 88.9% (24-27) from the free throw line.  They didn’t need that big of a performance to beat a poor Texas Southern team, and off such a perfect game, we expect regression, especially since they are taking a major step-up against a very good Ohio State defense.

Ohio State got the shaft from the tournament committee; the Buckeyes are significantly better than a #10 seed.  My power ratings say Ohio State is more like a #3 or #4 seed as they rate higher than seven of the eight teams slated on those lines.  My power ratings only make Ohio State a 6.5-point underdog in this game, so there is tremendous value on the Buckeyes.  Ohio State dominated VCU on Thursday despite needing overtime to squeak out a 3-point win.  VCU simply hit clutch shots at the right time or else that game would have been a blowout.  Ohio State’s defense is holding their opponents to just 62.7 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 32.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Buckeyes’ offense is averaging 75.8 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land.  Ohio State is a good team that matches-up well with Arizona, so we’ll take the generous points with the Buckeyes in this early game on Saturday night.   

9* Play OHIO STATE (+).

Washington was a team we wrote off right around the All-Star break.  The Wizards were in free-fall as they lost 11 of 13 games during that stretch.  But Washington has turned things around lately, and they are playing good basketball just as they did early in the season.  The Wizards come into tonight’s game on a 5-game winning streak, and they are 6-1 over their last seven games and 7-2 over their last nine games.  Washington has been terrific on both ends of the court over their last five games.  The Wizards have a +14.8 point differential in those games as their offense has averaged 101.6 points per game on 51.4% shooting from the field and 41.3% shooting from three-point land.  Washington’s defense has held their opponents to just 86.8 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 22.7% shooting from three-point land.  

Los Angeles is playing up and down basketball right now.  The Clippers are just 4-4 over their last eight games, and they are in a performance pattern of two losses, then two wins, then two losses, then two wins over those eight games.  Los Angeles’ defense is in poor current form as they’ve allowed 100 points or more in four of their last five games.  Over their last five games, Los Angeles has allowed 106.8 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Clippers also have a -0.4 point differential over their last five games, so they are laying too many points in this game, especially against a team that is playing outstanding basketball.  Washington is in terrific current form, so we’ll take the points with the Wizards in this game on Friday night.         

9* Play WIZARDS (+).

Oregon comes into tonight’s game with a solid 25-9 record, and the Ducks are also 13-3 over their last thirteen games.  They are facing an Oklahoma State team that is just 1-6 over their last seven games, and just 18-13 overall this season.  With Oregon laying just a bucket, they will be an extremely attractive play for the novice bettors, but we see this as a terrific spot to go against the Ducks.  Oregon is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Ducks are not going to get their preferred pace in this game.  Oregon has been held to 70 points or less in eight games away from home this season.  The Ducks are just 3-5 SU and 2-5-1 ATS in those games based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  Oregon’s three wins have come by 1 point in overtime with the other two wins both coming by 3 points apiece.  Oregon’s defense has been atrocious away from home this season.  The Ducks are giving up 77.6 points per game on 48.4% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land.  Oregon is also playing their seventh consecutive road game tonight, so this is a tremendous spot to go against them, especially since they are laying points. 

Oklahoma State comes into this game in bad current form, and it’s questionable how the Cowboys even made the tournament.  But they couldn’t have asked for a better match-up, and based on my power ratings, Oklahoma State should be a 1-point favorite in this game.  The Big 12 teams were terrible yesterday, so that will give bettors another reason to go against the Cowboys in this game.  But Oklahoma State plays at a slow pace, and they have a good defense.  Those two reasons make them live in this game.  Oklahoma State’s defense has been terrific in neutral court games this season as they are holding opponents to just 61.8 points per game on 37.6% shooting from the field.  Oklahoma State’s huge defensive edge will be the difference in this game, so we’ll take the points with the Cowboys in this game on Friday night.       

10* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (+).

Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 27-6 record this season, and their #4 seed in the tournament.  However, the Terrapins are one of the phoniest teams in college basketball as their record was built on an extremely weak non-conference schedule and an 18-1 home record.  Maryland’s defense has been terrible away from home this season, and their inability to get consistent stops will ultimately be their downfall in this tournament.  The Terrapins give up 67.8 points per game on 41.4% shooting form the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land.  Their three-point defense is extremely weak, and that doesn’t bode for this game as Valparaiso has shot the three at a 40.2% clip away from home this season.  Maryland’s offense has also struggled mightily away from home this season.  The Terrapins are only averaging 64.8 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 34.1% shooting from three-point land.   

Valparaiso is a scrappy team that comes into this game with a sold 28-5 record.  The Crusaders have two losses by a combined 4 points, and another loss in overtime.  They’ve only been embarrassed twice, but both of those games were very early in the season.  Valparaiso is 15-2 over their last 17 games, so they simply know how to win games.  The Crusaders have a terrific defense that is holding their opponents to just 59.7 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  Valparaiso also owns an efficient offense that averages 68.4 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land.  These two teams are much closer than the seeds indicate, and we expect this game to come right down to the wire.  We’ll take the points with the Crusaders in this late game on Friday afternoon.      

9* Play VALPARAISO (+).

Indiana is not a tournament quality team.  The Hoosiers are just 20-13 on the season, but since they have the name and play in the Big 10, they are granted into the tournament without having the credentials.  Indiana had the second worst defense in the Big 10 as they allowed an ugly 1.11 points per possession in conference play.  Indiana has the third worst defense in the entire NCAA tournament, allowing 1.04 points per possession.  Only Lafayette and Eastern Washington are worse and those two teams allowed a combined 174 points while losing by a combined 51 points yesterday.  Overall, Indiana’s defense allows 73.3 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field and 39.9% shooting from three-point land away from home.  Indiana is also a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Hoosiers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS away from home when held to less than 70 points this season.  Those five losses have come by an average of 10.2 points per game.  Indiana’s offense will be stymied by the stout Wichita State defense in this game.

Wichita State comes into today’s game with a 28-4 record.  The Shockers got screwed by the tournament committee with a #7 seed.  Based on my power ratings, Wichita State deserved a 2-seed as they are rated higher than all the #3 and #4 seeds, and greater than Kansas who is a #2 seed.  Wichita State knows they got the shaft, and with an opportunity to pound a big name team from a big name conference, we expect a peak performance this afternoon.  The Shockers were upset in their conference tournament, so they come in off a loss, and that will ensure no complacency.  Wichita State has held 30 of their 32 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Overall, the Shockers are only allowing 55.8 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  Wichita State also has an efficient offense that averages 68.6 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land.  Wichita State is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Shockers in this game on Friday afternoon.          

9* Play WICHITA STATE (-).

Wyoming is only playing in the NCAA tournament because they upset the Mountain West conference tournament when they beat San Diego State as 6-point underdogs.  If they lost that game, Wyoming would have been in the NIT.  The Cowboys were out-scored by 0.01 points per possession in conference play this season, and teams with negative differentials tend to get blown out in the Big Dance.  Wyoming has a good looking 25-9 record, and they play a style of basketball that is successful in tournaments.  The Cowboys play at an extremely slow pace, and they are a solid defensive team.  However, their opponent plays exactly the same way, only Northern Iowa does it exceptionally better.  Wyoming went just 5-7 in true road games, and just 8-7 overall in games played away from home.  Their offense has been horrendous in away games as they only average 54.6 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 27.3% shooting from three-point land.  Wyoming’s offense will struggle mightily against the stout Northern Iowa defense in this game.                

Northern Iowa is a very good team that got shafted with a #5 seed.  The Panthers come into today’s game with a 30-3 record, and based on my power ratings, they should have been a #3 seed.  Northern Iowa is a hungry and humble team, and their success hasn’t made them complacent at all.  “They want more,” Northern Iowa head coach Ben Jacobson said.  “There hasn’t been a point in the season where I felt like they’ve been satisfied with a particular game or particular win.”  Northern Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country, and we full expect them to shutdown Wyoming in this game.  Northern Iowa is only giving up 54.3 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 31.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Panthers also own a highly efficient offense that shoots 48.3% from the field and 39.8% from three-point land.  Northern Iowa is significantly better than Wyoming despite the teams playing the same style, so we’ll lay the points with the Panthers in this game on Friday afternoon.   

9* Play NORTHERN IOWA (-).

Arkansas is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Razorbacks play an up-tempo style for 40 full minutes while trying to wear out their opponents in the process.  Their style gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Arkansas’ offense struggles mightily in the half court.  The Razorbacks will not get their preferred style of play tonight as Wofford plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Arkansas has been held to less than 70 points eleven times this season.  The Razorbacks are just 6-5 SU in those games and 3-8 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Arkansas has been held to less than 70 points in eight road games.  They are just 3-5 SU and an ugly 1-7 ATS in those games.  The Razorbacks will be out of their comfort zone in this game, and their offense will struggle mightily because of the slow pace.       

Wofford is a fundamentally sound and experienced team that will not get trapped into Arkansas’ frenetic style.  The Terriers are 19-2 over their last twenty-one games, so this is a team that simply knows how to win.  Overall, Wofford is 28-6 on the season, including 15-5 in games away from home.  The Terriers play at a slow, methodical pace while running good offense that hits a lot of high percentage shots.  Wofford only averages 65.9 points per game, but they shoot 45.5% from the field and 37.1% from three-point land.  Wofford’s defense has been exceptional in neutral court games this season as they are only giving up 59.6 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field and 27% shooting from three-point land.  Arkansas’ defense is allowing 73.1 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  Arkansas can’t play in a slow-paced game, so we’ll take the points with Wofford in this game on Thursday night.                     

9* Play WOFFORD (+).

NC State is a pretty good team, but LSU is slightly better.  Both teams are rated equally, so this game should be a pick.  NC State played much better basketball on their home court this season, and they were extremely vulnerable when playing on the road.  The Wolfpack went 14-6 at home, but they were just 6-7 on the road.  The biggest difference was the play of NC State’s defense as they simply could not get stops, especially when playing in unfamiliar arenas.  In neutral court games, the Wolfpack allow 76.7 points per game on 51.2% shooting from the field and 42.2% shooting from three-point land.  That poor defensive play will continue in this game, especially since NC State is in poor current form.  They’ve allowed 70 points or more in three of their last five games while allowing their opponents to shoot 52% (78-150) from the field in those games.   

LSU is a good team that has a lot of talent.  The Tigers are 22-10 on the season, including a respectable 9-6 away from home.  LSU has a terrific offense that is averaging 73.7 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field.  The Tiger’s offense has actually been better away from home this season as they are averaging 74.5 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land.  LSU is also playing solid defense as they are holding opponents to 67.7 points per game on 40.1% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land.  LSU is also good on the glass, and that’s an area in which NC State has struggled this season.  The Tigers’ ability to get second-chance points is another key factor in this game, and that advantage will be critical to the outcome of this game.  We’ll take the points with LSU in this game on Thursday night.      

9* Play LSU (+).

Virginia Commonwealth was a much better team early on this season.  VCU lost starting point guard Briante Weber to a season-ending knee injury on January 31st, and that’s when the Rams started to struggle.  VCU closed the season on a 5-6 SU slide after losing Weber.  He was a key clog on both ends of the court for VCU, and he was on pace to break the NCAA’s all-time steals record.  VCU’s pressing style is hampered without Weber on the court, but all seems fixed after VCU won 4 games in four nights to win the A-10 conference tournament.  That accomplishment was good, but that run took something out of the team.  Now they must wheel back and face a very good Ohio State team while playing their fifth game in eight days.  VCU’s offense had declined sharply without Weber, and prior to the conference tournament, the Rams were only shooting 40.8% from the field and just 31.1% from three-point land.

Ohio State got the shaft from the tournament committee; the Buckeyes are significantly better than a #10 seed.  My power ratings say Ohio State is more like a #3 or #4 seed as they rate higher than seven of the eight teams slated on those lines.  My power ratings make Ohio State a 6.5-point favorite in this game, so there is tremendous value on the Buckeyes.  Ohio State is an excellent team that is well-suited to handle VCU’s ‘Havoc’ style of basketball as they have excellent ball handlers and shooters.  Ohio State’s offense is averaging 75.8 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 37.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Buckeyes also own a strong defense that is holding their opponents to just 62.4 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 31.8% shooting from three-point land.  Ohio State is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Buckeyes in this game on Thursday afternoon.   

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

UCLA making the NCAA tournament was a shocker.  The Bruins have no business being in the field, and they have a power rating that fits a #15 or #16 seed, not an #11 seed.  UCLA is playing in this tournament on name recognition only, and we expect the Bruins to get exposed in this game against SMU for the fraud that they are.  The Bruins are a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  UCLA has been held to 70 points or less in 14 games this season.  The Bruins are just 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in those games.  Thirteen of those fourteen games have come away from home, so there’s a strong possibility that UCLA’s offense will be stymied in this game.  UCLA’s defense has been atrocious on the road this season.  The Bruins are giving up 65.9 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 34.9% shooting from three-point land.

SMU struggled early on this season, but the Mustangs were playing without a few key players.  But when the team got complete, the Mustangs played exceptional basketball.  SMU is 25-3 over their last 28 games after opening the season at just 2-3.  The Mustangs are extremely well coached by Larry Brown, and they have tournament experience after making it to Madison Square Garden in the NIT last season.  SMU has held 29 of their 33 opponents to less than 70 points in regulation time this season.  Overall, the Mustangs are only allowing 59.7 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field and 32.2% shooting from three-point land at home.  SMU also has a potent offense that averages 69.4 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field.  SMU is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Mustangs in this game on Thursday afternoon.          

9* Play SMU (-).

Georgia State and Baylor are virtually mirror images of each other.  The two teams have identical 24-9 records, and they both play slow, half-court basketball.  The Panthers and Bears also have identical efficiency ratings on offense and defense, making this game likely to come right down to the final few possessions.  Georgia State is my highest rated 14-seed in the tournament by a wide margin while Baylor is my second lowest rated 3-seed.  These two teams are much closer than the pointspread suggests, and there’s a lot of value on the underdog.  Georgia State has three high quality players that not many will recognize.  Kevin Ware transferred from Louisville, Ryan Harrow transferred from Kentucky, and R.J. Hunter is the coach’s son.  Those three players combine to average 46.9 points per game, and all three could be starting on any major team in the country.  Georgia State also plays solid defense as they hold their opponents to just 62.4 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.          

Baylor played a much different style of basketball this season.  The Bears were more of an up-tempo offense in years past, but the Bears have slowed way down.  Baylor would rather win a low-scoring, defensive grinder versus trying to out-score their opponent while playing zero defense.  Baylor has played in ten straight games that were decided by 10 points or less, and today’s game will be close as well.  Baylor went just 6-5 in true road games this season, and overall, the Bears went just 8-7 on the road.  The Bears only have a +1.0 point differential away from home, and they are just 4-11 ATS away from home based on the posted spread with one of those wins coming by 9 points.  Baylor only hits 66.7% from the free throw line, and that weakness prevents them from extending margins late.  Georgia State hits 73.4% from the free throw line, so that strength keeps them in games.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with Georgia State in this game on Thursday afternoon.  

9* Play GEORGIA STATE (+).

Washington was a team we wrote off right around the All-Star break.  The Wizards were in free-fall as they lost 11 of 13 games during that stretch.  But Washington has turned things around lately, and they are playing good basketball just as they did early in the season.  The Wizards come into tonight’s game on a 4-game winning streak, and they are 5-1 over their last six games and 6-2 over their last eight games.  Washington has been terrific on both ends of the court over their last five games.  The Wizards have a +12.8 point differential in those games as their offense has averaged 101 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land.  Washington’s defense has held their opponents to just 88.2 points per game on 40.6% shooting from the field and 28.7% shooting from three-point land.  

Utah is also playing good basketball right now.  The Jazz come into tonight’s game on a 6-game winning streak, and they are 9-1 over their last ten games.  However, the Jazz have feasted on the worst teams in the league as their recent wins have come against the likes of the Sixers, Knicks, Nuggets, and Pistons.  Utah is taking a major step-up in class for this game, and they are laying way too many points into a team that is simply better than they are.  The Jazz have relied on their defense to win games this season, but they are coming off a strong offensive game, so we expect regression tonight.  Utah scored 94 points in their last game while hitting a robust 62.5% (15-24) from three-point land.  The Jazz are a young scrappy team, but this is not a good spot for them, especially since they are laying points.  Washington is in terrific current form, so we’ll take the points with the Wizards in this game on Wednesday night.         

9* Play WIZARDS (+).

Dayton is a pretty good team, and they come into tonight’s game with a 25-8 record.  But the Flyers are not in the best of situational and scheduling spots despite getting the rare opportunity to play a NCAA tournament game on their home court.  Dayton played in the A-10 championship game on Sunday afternoon, and they lost 71-65 to VCU.  That was three games in three days for Dayton, and now they will be playing their fourth game in six days.  Dayton is also a depth-shy team as they only play a true 6-man rotation; four starters played 94 minutes or more in their last three games.  The Flyers will be playing on tired legs, and that doesn’t bode well against a good Boise State defense.  Dayton is also shocked that they were one of the last teams to make the tournament as they were confident that they were getting a #6 or #7 seed.  “We’re all surprised we’re one of the last four in,” Kendall Pollard said.  Head coach Archie Miller simply added: “It will sting.”

Boise State has an identical 25-8 record, and my raw power ratings make the Broncos a 1-point favorite in this game.  After adjusting for strength of schedule, my power ratings make Dayton a 1-point favorite.  So there’s a lot of value on Boise State in this game.  The Broncos have played terrific basketball down the stretch as they are 15-2 over their last seventeen games.  Boise State owns a strong defense that is holding their opponents to just 60.9 points per game on 41.9% shooting from the field and 31.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Broncos are also a confident team: “I think we’re a dangerous team on any night with our shooting capabilities,” Rob Heyer said.  “If we continue to put together defensive stops, I think we’re a problem for a lot of teams.”  We’ll take the points with Boise State in this game on Wednesday night. 

10* Play BOISE STATE (+).

Iona was once again the best team in Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference this season; the Gaels are 26-8 SU overall and they went 19-3 in conference play.  But just like last season, Iona lost to Manhattan in the championship game and were denied a bid to the NCAA tournament.  The Gaels overcame that setback last year and played well in an 89-88 loss at Louisiana Tech in the NIT.  But tonight’s game in Rhode Island presents a much different challenge, both on and off the court.  Iona was favored by 3.5-points in the title game this season; they were 2-point underdogs last season.  A NCAA tournament bid was a foregone conclusion, especially since they beat Manhattan twice earlier this season.  But they lost, and the team is deflated.  Iona is a team that needs to play ultra fast to be at their best, but they’ve been off for a week, and they won’t have their rhythm in this game.  That will be even more pronounced since Rhode Island plays at an extremely slow pace which will take Iona out of their comfort zone.  The Gaels are heavily reliant on making three’s as 31% of their points come from beyond the arc.  But Rhode Island doesn’t give up three’s as just 19% of the points scored on them come from beyond the arc.  Iona might also be without their best outside shooter as guard Isaiah Williams is questionable due to an illness.  Williams averages 14.2 ppg this season and a fantastic 46% shooting from 3-point range.

Rhode Island played well in the A-10 tournament, but they came up short in a 56-52 loss to Dayton.  The Rams are a good team that is looking at the NIT as an opportunity to continue their season.  Rhode Island comes into tonight’s game with a 22-9 SU record, including a strong 13-2 at home.  Rhode Island plays at a slow pace, and they’ve held 28 of their 31 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Rhode Island’s defense is tremendous, especially at home where they are holding their opponents to just 58 points per game on 39.6% shooting from the field and 27.7% shooting from three-point land.  Rhode Island has a strong 2-point offense, and they will score at ease on an Iona defense that allows 74.1 points per game on the road.  The Rams are the better team with the much better defense, so we’ll lay the points with Rhode Island in this NIT game on Tuesday night.

10* Play RHODE ISLAND (-).

Portland comes into tonight’s game in Washington on a 3-game winning streak, and they’ve won eight of their last nine games overall.  With the Blazers catching points in this game, they look like an attractive underdog.  However, this is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Portland, and that makes this a prime spot to go against them.  Portland’s offense was tremendous in their last two games as they scored 231 total points.  The Blazers shot 54.8% (91-166) from the field and 48% (24-50) from three-point land.  Portland also hit 75.8% (25-33) from the free throw line.  The Blazers played back-to-back perfect games, and it’s very likely they will regress sharply in tonight’s game, especially since they are in a bad scheduling spot.  Portland is playing on a back-to-back road set while also playing their third game in four nights.  This is just a terrible spot, and there’s reason to expect less than their best effort. 

Washington was a team we wrote off right around the All-Star break.  The Wizards were in free-fall as they lost 11 of 13 games during that stretch.  But Washington has turned things around lately, and they are playing good basketball just as they did early in the season.  The Wizards also come into tonight’s game on a 3-game winning streak, and they are 4-1 over their last five games and 5-2 over their last seven games.  Washington has been terrific on both ends of the court over their last five games.  The Wizards have a +11.6 point differential in those games as their offense has averaged 99.8 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field while their defense has held their opponents to just 88.2 points per game on 41.9% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.  Washington is in good current form, and since they are catching Portland at the perfect time, we’ll lay the short price with the Wizards in this game on Monday night.         

10* Play WIZARDS (-).

Wisconsin has won their two tournament games with ease; they beat Michigan 71-60 and they beat Purdue 71-51.  But those two opponents were overmatched by the Badgers.  That won’t be the case this afternoon as Wisconsin is taking a major step-up in class against Michigan State.  The Badgers only beat the Spartans by 7 points (68-61) on their home court two weeks ago, so there is no reason to expect Wisconsin to now win by more on a neutral court today.  Wisconsin is not a deep team as they only play a six-man rotation.  Over their last two games, all five starters have played 64 minutes or more.  With this being their third game in as many days, and the upcoming NCAA tournament only four days away, there’s little reason for Wisconsin to lay everything out on the floor in this game.  The Badgers will be quite happy to win this game in a low-scoring defensive grinder.  Wisconsin is playing on tired legs, and we expect their offense to struggle a bit against a stout Michigan State defense.

Michigan State is on a 4-game winning streak, and they come into today’s game off a pair of nice tournament wins.  We’ve backed Michigan State in both of those games, and we’ll come right back with the Spartans in today’s game for all the same reasons.  Michigan State is the second best team in the Big 10, and the gap between them and Wisconsin is much closer than people think.  The Spartans are also a much deeper team, and only two of their starters have played more than 60 minutes over their last two games.  Michigan State has the best defense in the conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 62.9 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 31.6% shooting from three-point land this season.  Michigan State is greatly undervalued in this game, so we’ll take the points with the Spartans on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE (+).

Boston has a better record than expected this season; the Celtics come into tonight’s game at 28-36.  But Boston tends to get blown out when on the road against a solid defensive team.  The Celtics are a team that needs to play at a quick pace while scoring easy baskets in transition to be at their best.  When unable to play their preferred style, their offense really struggles, especially on the road.  In road games in which they’ve been held to less than 100 points, Boston has lost 13 times this season.  Ten of those thirteen losses have come by 9 points or more with their average loss coming by 11.8 points per game.  Boston played at home last night, and they needed to out-score Orlando 29-16 in the fourth quarter to win that game 95-88.  Now they must take to the road on a back-to-back set while also playing their third game in four nights.  We expect the Celtics’ offense to struggle, especially since the Pacers’ defense has held their last seven opponents to 96 points or less in regulation time.

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 over their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games, and the veteran Pacers have continued their momentum by going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS out of the break.  Indiana’s defense is in tremendous current form as they’ve held their last five opponents to just 88.2 points per game on 37.8% shooting from the field and 25.9% shooting from three-point land.  The Pacers are playing just their third game over the last seven nights, so they are a fresh team, and simply much better than Boston.  We’ll lay the points with the Pacers in this game on Saturday night.   

10* Play PACERS (-).

Dayton is a pretty good team, and they come into today’s game with a 24-7 record.  The Flyers also beat Rhode Island easily earlier this season, so the line looks a bit short considering the past results.  But this will be an extremely difficult game for Dayton, and there’s good value in playing against them in this spot.  Dayton was fortunate to survive their game last night; they only beat St. Bonaventure 75-71.  The Flyers allowed St. Bonaventure to shoot 58.1% (25-43) from the field and 53.3% (8-15) from three-point land.  Dayton also shot 51.9% (27-52) from the field, but they will get a much stiffer challenge today against Rhode Island, a team that has one of the best defenses in the conference.  Dayton is also a depth-shy team as they only play a true 6-man rotation; four starters played 36 minutes or more last night.  The Flyers will be playing on tired legs, and that doesn’t bode well against a stout defensive team.   

Rhode Island easily won a Best Bet for us in their 71-58 win over George Washington last night.  We’ll come right back with the Rams for all the same reasons.  Rhode Island is in the third year of head coach Dan Hurley’s system, and they finally have the length and athleticism to run his brand of basketball.  The Rams are having a terrific season as they come into today’s game with a 22-8 record.  Rhode Island plays at a slow pace, and they’ve held 27 of their 30 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Rhode Island’s defense is tremendous as they are holding their opponents to just 59.6 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 28.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Rams are quite focused on this tournament: “We’ve got a lot of confidence,” Hassan Martin said.  “We think we can win it.”  We’ll take the points with Rhode Island in this game on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play RHODE ISLAND (+).

Maryland appears to be a really good team with their 27-5 record this season.  However, the Terrapins are one of the phoniest teams in college basketball as their record was built on an extremely weak non-conference schedule and an 18-1 home record.  Maryland squeaked out a close 75-69 win over Indiana last night, and a repeat of that performance will get them blown out in this game.  The Terrapins are not a deep team, and four of their starters played 32 minutes or more in last night’s fast-paced game.  Maryland will be playing on tired legs, and that does not bode well for their defense in this game.  Overall, Maryland’s defense has been terrible away from home as they are giving up 67.8 points per game on 41.4% shooting form the field and 36.1% shooting from three-point land.  Maryland’s offense is also taking a major step-up in defensive class in this game, going from the awful Indiana defense to the stout Michigan State defense.  Maryland will simply have a difficult time scoring points consistently in this game.

Michigan State is on a 3-game winning streak, and they come into today’s game off an easy Best Bet win for us over Ohio State last night.  We’ll come right back with Michigan State for all the same reasons.  The Spartans are one of the best teams in the Big 10, and I rank them second behind Wisconsin.  Michigan State has the best defense in the conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 63.1 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 31.1% shooting from three-point land this season.  Michigan State is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Spartans in this game on Saturday afternoon.        

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

Ohio State and Michigan State will play for the second time this season; the Spartans won 59-56 at home last month.  Ohio State trailed by 9 points at the half, and Michigan State held them without a field goal for a 6.5-minute stretch at one point.  The Buckeyes beat Minnesota 79-73 last night, but that game was too close considering how the Gophers packed in their season down the stretch.  Ohio State shot 50% (26-52) from the field and they out-scored Minnesota 22-10 at the free throw line.  That’s not going to happen tonight against the stout Spartans’ defense, especially knowing that Ohio State shot just 44.2% (23-52) in the first meeting while scoring just 5 total points from the line.  The Buckeyes are not a deep team at all, and four of their starters played 33 minutes or more last night.  That means they will be playing on tired legs against a very good defense; Ohio State will simply have a difficult time scoring points consistently in this game.            

Michigan State comes into this game off back-to-back wins after losing back-to-back games, so they have their confidence back.  The Spartans are one of the best teams in the Big 10, and I rank them second behind Wisconsin.  Michigan State has the best defense in the conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 62.9 points per game on 39.7% shooting from the field and 31.1% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Spartans were also strong away from home as they went 7-4 in true road games; Ohio State was just 4-6 in true road games.  Michigan State is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Spartans in this game on Friday night.        

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

George Washington easily won a Best Bet for us last night in their 73-55 blowout of Duquesne.  That game was a perfect setup for the Colonials, and they simply beat a bad opponent.  George Washington shot 50% (10-20) from three-point land in that game, but they also allowed Duquesne to shoot 50% (10-20) from three-point land.  The Colonials will get a much stiffer challenge tonight against Rhode Island, a team that beat them 59-55 earlier this season.  George Washington’s offense was stymied in that game as they only shot 42.9% (21-49) from the field and 36.4% (4-11) from three-point land.  The Colonials’ offense has scored 160 points in their last two games, but they’ll be lucky to crack the 60-point mark tonight against a very good Rhode Island defense.     

Rhode Island is in the third year of head coach Dan Hurley’s system, and they finally have the length and athleticism to run his brand of basketball.  The Rams are having a terrific season as they come into tonight’s game with a 21-8 record.  Rhode Island plays at a slow pace, and they’ve held 26 of their 29 opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Rhode Island’s defense is tremendous as they are holding their opponents to just 59.6 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 29.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Rams are quite focused on this tournament: “We’ve got a lot of confidence,” Hassan Martin said.  “We think we can win it.”  We’ll lay the points with Rhode Island in this game on Friday night.  

9* Play RHODE ISLAND (-).

Villanova is having a fantastic season as they come into tonight’s game against Providence with an impressive 30-2 record.  The Wildcats already own two wins over Providence this season, so tonight’s game appears to be another easy win for the Wildcats.  But we see this game just the opposite as we expect Providence to give Villanova all they can handle tonight.  Villanova crushed Marquette 84-49 yesterday afternoon.  The Wildcats played an abnormally perfect offensive game as they shot 52.6% (30-57) from the field and 58.6% (17-29) from three-point land; the 17 made three’s tied a Big East tournament record.  Villanova scored 105 points in their previous game which was a 37-point win over St. John’s.  The Wildcats have shot 54.5% (67-123) from the field, 45.9% (28-61) from three-point land, and 75% (27-36) from the free throw line in their last two games while winning by a combined 72 points.  Those numbers are simply unsustainable, and we expect major regression from Villanova’s offense in tonight’s game.       

Providence is also having a good season, and they come into tonight’s game with a 22-10 record.  The Friars easily beat St. John’s 74-57 yesterday afternoon, so they did not exert much energy in that game.  Providence is a veteran team with three players averaging double digits in scoring, and they only lost to Villanova by 6 points earlier this season despite getting out-shot 50%-43.1% from the field and being -11 (27-16) in scoring from the free throw line.  Providence can certainly play with Villanova, especially since we expect the Wildcats to regress sharply in this game.  The Friars are full of confidence as well: “As a team we’ve played great,” said Kris Dunn.  “We’re really focused and have great team chemistry right now.”  Villanova is certainly a very good team, but we do not expect their best in this game, so we’ll take the points with Providence on Friday night.

9* Play PROVIDENCE (+).

George Washington is a very good team that returned four starters from last year’s 24-9 team that advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament.  The Colonials come into tonight’s game with a 20-11 record, but most of their losses came while playing with injuries to their better players.  George Washington is in tremendous current form right now as they are 3-1 over their last four games with their lone loss coming at a very good Davidson team.  George Washington’s last three wins have come by 22, 16, and 23 points which shows how dominating they’ve been.  The Colonials have an exceptional defense that is holding their opponents to just 61.3 points per game on 40% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land.  In an earlier season win over Duquesne, the Colonials held the Dukes to just 59 points, including just 18 points in the first half.  George Washington’s defense will shutdown Duquesne’s offense once again in tonight’s game.      

Duquesne played last night and they outlasted Saint Louis in a 61-55 win.  The Dukes rallied in the second half, but that took a lot out of the team.  Duquesne has no depth as they only play a true 6-man rotation.  Four of their starters played 32 minutes or more last night with two starters playing all 40 minutes.  Three players combined to score 49 of their 61 total points while combining to shoot 47.4% (18-38) from the field.  The Dukes’ offense will now face the best defensive team in the A-10 conference, and they’ll have little success on offense, especially since they will be playing on tired legs on a back-to-back set.  George Washington is rested and ready, and since they are simply the superior team, we’ll lay the points with the Colonials in this game on Thursday night.    

9* Play GEORGE WASHINGTON (-).

Milwaukee has a much better record than expected this season; the Bucks come into tonight’s game at 34-30.  Milwaukee is a young team that caught many opponents off guard this season, and the majority of their wins came earlier in the season.  The Bucks are a known commodity now, and they can’t sneak up on teams now.  Milwaukee is just 3-7 over their last ten games with their three wins coming over hapless teams like the Sixers and Magic while their other win came over the free-falling Washington Wizards.  The Bucks beat Orlando at home last night, but they needed to rally late just to win that game 97-91.  Milwaukee will now take to the road and play on a back-to-back set while also playing their third game in four nights.  The Bucks have been terrible on the road lately, losing six consecutive away games with those losses coming by an average of 9.5 points per game.  Milwaukee’s road struggles will continue tonight in Indiana against one of the hottest teams in the NBA.     

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 over their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games, and the veteran Pacers have continued their momentum by going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS out of the break.  Indiana’s defense is in tremendous current form as they’ve held their last five opponents to just 82.4 points per game on 37% shooting from the field and 24.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Pacers are playing just their second game over the last five nights, so they are a fresh team, and simply much better than Milwaukee.  We’ll lay the points with the Pacers in this game on Thursday night.   

10* Play PACERS (-).

This game will be played at Madison Square Garden, so neither team has the home court advantage.  Creighton and Georgetown played twice this season with the Hoyas winning both games quite easily.  However, those games came early in conference play when Georgetown was playing their best basketball while Creighton was playing their worst.  “We really didn’t give them our best games,” Creighton’s Will Artino said.  “We played them both times pretty early in Big East play. As a team, we’ve come a long way since then.”  Georgetown is only 6-4 SU and just 4-6 ATS over their last ten games.  The Hoyas’ last three wins have all come by 6 points or less, and they are on a 0-3 ATS slide as a favorite.  Georgetown lost two key role players back in February, and since then, the team’s depth and ability to stretch leads has gone away.  The Hoyas are more likely to win a close game than blow an opponent out right now, so there’s a lot of value in taking points against Georgetown, especially in tonight’s game.  

Creighton is playing their best basketball of the season, and they came thru for us with an easy Best Bet win over DePaul last night.  We’ll come right back with the Bluejays for all the same reasons.  Creighton’s overall record of 14-18 looks extremely poor, but note that seven of Creighton’s fourteen Big East losses have come in games in which they held the lead at some point in the final minute.  The Bluejays’ last four losses have come by 4 points or less, so they’ve been very competitive in defeat.  Creighton head coach Greg McDermott isn’t convinced that Georgetown is much better than his team: “If there’s one team we want to play again, it would be them just because we played so poorly the two times we played them. As I told my team, I really feel like Georgetown has only seen 20 minutes of what we’re capable of. Other than that, they haven’t seen Creighton basketball the way we’ve been playing of late.”  Creighton is undervalued in this game, so we’ll take the points with the Bluejays in this game on Thursday night.     

9* Play CREIGHTON (+).

This game will be played at Madison Square Garden, so neither team has the home court advantage.  Creighton and DePaul played twice this season with each team winning on the opponent’s court.  Both teams come into tonight’s game on losing streaks; Creighton has lost 3 straight games while DePaul has lost 7 straight games.  However, there is no doubt that Creighton has been playing the much better basketball.  DePaul has been routinely blown out as eight of their last ten losses have come by 10 points or more.  The Blue Demons’ last loss was extremely poor as they let a Marquette team that had quit on the season to beat them by 10 points while DePaul only scored 48 total points.  They shot just 32.8% (21-64) from the field and 16.7% (3-18) from three-point land.  DePaul only got to the free throw line 6 times in the entire game, and that shows a lack of effort and aggressiveness.  Things are unlikely to change tonight, especially since DePaul’s season is on the verge of finally coming to an end.

Creighton is playing their best basketball of the season despite their recent 3-game losing streak.  The Bluejays played Xavier, Villanova and Seton Hall tough with those three losses coming by a combined 6 points.  Creighton’s overall record of 13-18 SU looks extremely poor, but note that seven of Creighton’s fourteen Big East losses have come in games in which they held the lead at some point in the final minute.  The Bluejays could easily have a record of 20-11 SU instead, so they are a much better team than they overall W/L record indicates.  Creighton dominated DePaul in their last meeting, resulting in a 75-62 road win.  Bluejays’ head coach Greg McDermott hints that his team matches-up well with DePaul:  “We got to their shooters, we had an impact on the offensive glass, we controlled the defensive glass, and we didn’t turn it over.  Those things are going to spell good things for us.”  Creighton is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Bluejays in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play CREIGHTON (-).

Orlando has a better record than expected this season; the Magic come into tonight’s game at 21-43.  But the majority of their wins have come against teams that are worse than they are, and when on the road against a solid defensive team, the Magic tend to get blown out.  Orlando is a team that needs to play at a quick pace while scoring easy baskets in transition to be at their best.  When unable to play their preferred style, their offense really struggles, especially on the road.  In road games in which they’ve been held to less than 100 points, Orlando is just 4-18 SU this season, including 0-10 their last ten times.  Twelve of those losses have come by 8 points or more with their average loss coming by 12.2 points per game.  Their four wins have come against the Sixers, Knicks, Suns, and Jazz.  The Magic were held to just 83 points in their last visit to Indiana, and they lost that game by 15 points.  We expect a similar outcome tonight, especially since the Pacers’ defense has held their last five opponents to 86 points or less.           

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 over their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games, and the veteran Pacers have continued their momentum by going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS out of the break.  Indiana’s defense is in tremendous current form as they’ve held their last five opponents to just 82.4 points per game on 36.8% shooting from the field and 26.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Pacers have had two full days off, so they are a fresh team, and simply much better than Orlando.  We’ll lay the points with the Pacers in this game on Tuesday night.   

10* Play PACERS (-).

New York has been a complete mess this season.  The Knicks come into this game with an awful 12-49 SU record, including a pathetic 4-25 SU record on the road.  New York’s transition to the triangle offense was a wreck from the beginning, and their inability to score consistently has put enormous pressure on their poor defense.  That combination has led to many blowout losses, and we expect another double-digit defeat tonight in Denver.  Three of New York’s last four road losses have come by 23, 21, and 14 points.  The Knicks will also be flat for this game after they put everything they had into their last home game against the Pacers on Saturday night.  New York actually led that game 73-67 with just over 8 minutes left to play, and the game was tied with 3 minutes left before they ended up losing 92-86.  The Knicks are in terrible current form as they’ve allowed 106.8 points per game while only scoring 95.6 points per game over their last five games.  On the road this season, New York is giving up 103.7 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.

Denver’s season has also been a dysfunctional one, and at the All-Star break, the team appeared to be tanking the rest of the season.  They made some trades with an eye towards the future, and the remaining players were simply going thru the motions.  But head coach Brian Shaw was then fired, and since then, the Nuggets have been a much different team.  Interim head coach Melvin Hunt has the team playing good basketball right now; Denver is 2-2 under his leadership.  Their last two losses came against the Spurs and Rockets with the latter being their fourth game in five nights.  “I’m excited about the group that’s in there,” Hunt said.  “When I look in their eyes, I see pros.  I see guys that are willing to give what they have.  I felt genuinely good about who they are as men, and as players.  There’s a lot of integrity.  They fight hard, and I respect them for that.”  Denver is a different team under Hunt, and against the lowly Knicks, we expect a peak performance by the Nuggets.  We’ll lay the points with Denver in this home game on Monday night.

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Toronto has been floundering since the All-Star break.  The Raptors are just 2-7 over their last nine games with one of those wins coming over the worst team in the NBA, the Philadelphia 76ers.  Toronto’s losses have been ugly with the average loss coming by 11.4 points per game.  Reports indicate that there’s some major locker room issues between the team and their coach, and with the way they’ve been playing on the court, those rumors are likely to be accurate.  Toronto’s defense has been atrocious as they’ve given up 100 points or more in six of their last seven games.  Over their last five games, the Raptors have allowed 108.4 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land.  That poor defense is not going to cut it against one of the hottest offenses in the NBA, especially since the Thunder come into tonight’s game off a loss.     

Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season right now, and we expect their major roll to continue.  The Thunder are 6-3 over their last nine games, and they could actually be a perfect 10-0 in those games.  Oklahoma City lost one game in overtime, and they blew two games in the final seconds.  The Thunder are a perfect 4-0 at home since the All-Star break with their wins coming by an average of 14.5 points per game.  The Thunder are 34-28 SU on the season, and they need every win they can get in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Oklahoma City’s offense has been fantastic recently, averaging 112.2 points per game over their last five games.  Oklahoma City’s defense plays good at home where they only give up 96.1 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Toronto defense will be unable to contain the hot Oklahoma City offense, and that will be the determining factor in this game.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Sunday night.    

9* Play THUNDER (-).

Charlotte and Detroit were both active at the trading deadline, but it seems the moves made by the Hornets have worked much better so far.  Charlotte is on a 4-game winning streak, and they’ve won five of their last six games overall.  The Hornets are playing complete team basketball right now, and their offense has been much more efficient with the acquisition of Mo Williams.  The ball movement has been pristine, and all five starters have scored in double digits in four of their last five games; they missed that feat in their last game by a single bucket.  Charlotte is also playing for the playoffs as they are currently in the 7th spot in the Eastern Conference.  The Hornets also play exceptional defense, and over their last five games, Charlotte has held their opponents to just 95.4 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land.    

Detroit looks to be in a free fall right now.  The Pistons come into tonight’s game on a 5-game losing streak, and they are just 6-12 over their last 18 games.  Detroit’s offense has been dismal recently as they’ve scored 95 points or less in four of their last five games.  Things won’t get an easier tonight against a solid Charlotte defense that is in good current form.  The Pistons’ defense hasn’t been any good either; they’ve allowed 102.6 points per game over their last five games.  Detroit will struggle on both ends of the court tonight, especially since they are still trying to figure out their rotation since making moves at the trading deadline.  These two teams are heading in opposite directions, so we’ll back Charlotte in this game on Sunday night.    

10* Play HORNETS (+).

Iowa State comes into tonight’s game with a solid 21-8 record, but the Cyclones are just 4-5 in true road games.  Iowa State is also coming off a huge comeback win in their final home game of the season; they trailed by 21 points to Oklahoma in the second half.  This is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for Iowa State, and they are going to face a style of play that frustrates them.  The Cyclones are a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  Iowa State has been held to 70 points or less in four games this season.  The Cyclones are just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games.  Iowa State’s lone win came by just two points (63-61) on their home court.  When held to less than 70 points on the road, Iowa State is 0-3 SU this season.  Iowa State’s defense has been atrocious on the road this season.  The Cyclones are giving up 77.1 points per game on 43.4% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State is also playing their fourth road game over their last six games, so this is a prime spot to play against them, especially since they are laying points on the road.      

TCU struggled for the first half of the season, but the Horned Frogs are now playing their best basketball of the season.  TCU is a much different team at home (13-5) than on the road (2-8), and we expect a strong performance in their final home game of the season.  They return home tonight off back-to-back road losses, and with three seniors that are three of the top four scorers on the team, the Horned Frogs will play this game with a purpose.  TCU has held 16 of their 18 home opponents to less than 70 points this season.  Overall, the Horned Frogs are only allowing 57.9 points per game on 37.4% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  TCU has won three straight home games, so they will be playing with a lot of confidence in this game.  This is TCU’s biggest game of the season, so we’ll take the points in this game on Saturday night.          

10* Play TCU (+).

Virginia is having an excellent season as they come into tonight’s game at Louisville with an impressive 28-1 record.  The Cavaliers have been winning lately without their best player, Justin Anderson, who has missed the past seven games with a broken finger.  He was slated to return for this game, but Anderson had an appendectomy on Thursday and he will not play.  Anderson initially got hurt in the first Louisville game; Virginia only won 52-47 on their home court.  Since that win, Virginia has played a slew of weak teams while squeaking out wins.  The Cavaliers must now take to the road for the second consecutive game, and face a motivated and talented Louisville team on their strong home court.  This is by far Virginia’s toughest game since Anderson has been out, and we do not expect the Cavaliers to escape this game with a win.  Over their last five game, Virginia’s offense is only averaging 62 points per game.  The team is used to playing in defensive grinders, but the Cardinals are also comfortable playing in a slugfest.  That eliminates Virginia’s biggest edge of controlling the pace and playing half-court basketball, and we saw how the Cavaliers couldn’t get separation from Louisville in the first meeting on their home court.   

Louisville comes into their final home game of the season off an ugly 71-59 loss at Notre Dame.  The Cardinals are in a terrific spot to bounce back with a big win, especially since this is just their third home game since February 21st.  Overall, Louisville is a strong 14-4 at home where their defense is holding opponents to just 55.3 points per game on 36.5% shooting from the field and 28.9% shooting from three-point land.  A win in this game gives Louisville a double bye for the upcoming conference tournament.  “From a seeding standpoint, it’s very big. It’s a very, very important basketball game,” said head coach Rick Pitino.  Under Pitino, Louisville has won their last 21 home games against opponents that they already played on the road earlier in the season, and that shows revenge motivation is a big factor for his teams.  Louisville will put everything they have into this game, and since they are catching Virginia at a vulnerable time, we’ll take the points with the Cardinals in this game on Saturday night.       

9* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Kansas and Oklahoma played back on January 19th with the Jayhawks winning 85-78 on their home court.  Kansas was playing much better basketball back then, and they were only able to beat the Sooners by 8 points on their strong home court.  The Jayhawks come into the rematch in terrible current form; they are just 3-2 over their last five games with one of those wins coming in overtime.  Kansas is just 1-3 SU in their last four road games, and now they must play without their leading scorer, Perry Elllis, who injured his knee in their last game.  Ellis averages 14.2 points per game, and he’s Kansas’ best rim protector.  While Ellis is not a household name, he is one of the most important players on the Jayhawks’ roster.  Kansas’ offense has been mediocre on the road this season as the Jayhawks are only averaging 66.2 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field.  Kansas is also 0-5 ATS over their last five games as they are simply not playing up to expectations right now.

Oklahoma returns home off a bad loss at Iowa State.  The Sooners led that game 37-18 at the half before getting out-scored 59-33 over the final 20 minutes of the game.  Oklahoma will be ready for today’s game as they are playing their last home game of the season with revenge and off a loss.  The Sooners are a strong 13-1 at home where they play excellent defense.  Oklahoma is only allowing their home opponents to score 58.9 points per game on 36.6% shooting from the field and 29.3% shooting from three-point land.  The Sooners own a +18.5 point differential on their home court where their offense is averaging 77.4 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 40.6% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma is in a terrific spot for a big bounce back win, so we’ll lay the points with the Sooners in this game on Saturday afternoon.   

9* Play OKLAHOMA (-).

Chicago played at home last night against Oklahoma City.  The Bulls were down double digits before rallying to win 108-105 in the last seconds.  Chicago won that game without their two best players, Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler, and they got unforeseen contributions from reserves Nikola Mirotic (26 points) and E’Twaun Moore (19 points).  Off that emotional big comeback win, Chicago must now take to the road without rest and play at one of the hottest teams in the NBA.  This is a terrible scheduling and situational spot for the Bulls, and we expect their play to reflect that.  Chicago just finished a 7-game homestand, so this is their first road game since February 20th.  The Bulls also played an easy schedule recently with games against struggling teams; last night’s win against the Thunder being the exception.  In their lone road game since the All-Star break, the Bulls lost 100-91 in Detroit.

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 SU during their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as a team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 SU and the veteran Pacers have continued their momentum by going 5-1 SU and ATS out of the break.  Indiana is off back-to-back easy wins over the Sixers and Knicks that required little energy.  The Pacers are still a fresh team, and they are in a much better scheduling spot than Chicago, especially since Indiana had last night off.  We’ll lay the points with the Pacers in this home game on Friday night.

10* Play PACERS (-).

Virginia Commonwealth and Davidson played back on January 7th with the Rams winning 71-65 on their home court.  VCU was playing much better basketball back then, yet they were only able to beat the Wildcats by 6 points on VCU's strong home court as a 10.5 point favorite.  The Rams now come into this rematch in terrible current form; they’ve lost two straight games and they are only 4-5 SU over their last nine games.  VCU lost starting point guard Briante Weber to a season-ending knee injury on January 31st, and that’s when the Rams started to struggle.  Weber was a key clog on both ends of the court for VCU, and he was on pace to break the NCAA’s all-time steals record.  VCU’s pressing style has been hampered without Weber on the court, and nothing in their recent games suggests that the Rams will get back to their early season form.  VCU’s offense has declined without Weber, and over their last five games, the Rams are only shooting 40.8% from the field and just 31.1% from three-point land.  The loss of their point guard has really altered the direction of this Virginia Commonwealth team.

Davidson is definitely a tournament-caliber squad, but the Wildcats need a big win to get them into the Big Dance.  Tonight’s game against VCU presents them with a terrific opportunity to get a resume-building win.  Davidson is an excellent team that comes into tonight’s game with a 21-6 SU record, including a strong 13-1 SU record at home.  The Wildcats were facing VCU’s press for the first time earlier this season, and despite losing, they were not embarrassed in defeat.  Now that they have the experience of facing the pressure, they will be more prepared this time around, and fortunately for Davidson, they are catching VCU at exactly the right time.  Davidson is well-suited to handle VCU’s ‘Havoc’ style of basketball as they have excellent ball handlers and shooters.  The Wildcats lead the A-10 conference in assist-turnover ratio (1.7) while averaging a league-low 9.6 turnovers per game.  Davidson owns a +19.8 point differential on their home court where their offense is averaging 82 points per game on 49.6% shooting from the field and 44.8% shooting from three-point land.  Davidson has been the most profitable pointspread team in the country with an incredible 20-4 ATS mark this season.  We’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play DAVIDSON (-).

Oregon comes into tonight’s game with a solid 22-8 record, and the Ducks are also 8-1 over their last nine games.  Oregon is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Ducks are not going to get their preferred pace in this game against their in-state rival.  Oregon has been held to 70 points or less in five road games this season.  The Ducks are just 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in those games based on tonight’s posted pointspread.  Oregon’s lone win came by just a single point (68-67) in overtime.  Oregon’s defense has been atrocious on the road this season.  The Ducks are giving up 79.5 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land.  Oregon is also playing their third consecutive road game tonight, and since they’ve won their last three games SU as underdogs, this is a prime spot to play against them, especially since they are laying points on the road.      

Oregon State played exceptionally well early on this season, but the Beavers have struggled down the stretch.  But they return home tonight off back-to-back road losses, and with this being their final home game of the season, we expect a peak performance in this game.  Oregon State is 15-1 at home where they play sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents.  They’ve held all 16 of their home opponents to less than 70 points as they play at one of the slowest paces in the country.  Oregon State’s defense is holding their opponents to just 51.9 points per game on 34.5% shooting from the field and 26.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Oregon State’s biggest game of the season, so we’ll back the Beavers in this game on Wednesday night.          

10* Play OREGON STATE (+).

TCU and Oklahoma State played earlier this season with the Horned Frogs winning 70-55 at home as 2.5-point underdogs.  TCU was catching Oklahoma State in a terrible spot for that game as the Cowboys were off three consecutive SU underdog wins.  The rematch will be a much more difficult challenge for TCU as they are now facing an Oklahoma State team looking to break a losing streak.  The Horned Frogs are just 2-7 SU in true road games this season, including 1-7 in conference play.  TCU’s average road loss in conference play has come by 11.7 points per game.  The Horned Frogs’ defense has been much worse on the road where they are giving up 68.2 points per game; overall they give up 60.6 points per game.  TCU’s offense has also struggled to score points on the road as they are only averaging 62.7 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field.     

Oklahoma State comes into their final home game of the season on a 4-game losing streak that began with the loss at TCU.  The Cowboys are in a good spot to bounce back with a big win, especially since they’ve lost their last two home games.  Overall, Oklahoma State is a strong 11-4 at home this season with ten of their wins coming by 11 points or more.  Oklahoma State’s defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 58.8 points per game on 37.2% shooting from the field.  The Cowboys also have an offense that is averaging 69 points per game on 45% shooting from the field at home.  Oklahoma State has a lot of motivation tonight, so we’ll lay the points with the Cowboys in this game on Wednesday night.       

9* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (-).

Purdue comes into tonight’s game with a respectable 19-10 record, and they are 9-2 over their last eleven games.  One of those losses came in their last game at Ohio State, and that was a tough loss to swallow.  The Boilermakers blew a 12-point lead in the second half, and they lost 65-61.  That type of loss is one that will linger, and Purdue will play with a hangover tonight.  The Boilermakers were gifted an easy schedule as of late, and the weak opponents have boosted their record to look better than the team actually is.  Over their last nine wins, Purdue beat Rutgers and Indiana twice; both of those teams are garbage.  Purdue also beat Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, and Ohio State.  The Boilermakers’ offense is only averaging 64.7 points per game away from home this season.  Purdue will have a difficult time scoring tonight against a very good Spartans’ defense.            

Michigan State comes into this game off back-to-back losses.  The Spartans return home to play their last home game of the season, and since they lost their last home game, we expect a supreme effort tonight.  Michigan State is one of the best teams in the Big 10, and I rank them second behind Wisconsin.  The Spartans have the best defense in the conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 61.5 points per game on 38.4% shooting from the field and 30.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Michigan State is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans in this game on Wednesday night.        

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

West Virginia and Kansas played on February 16th with the Mountaineers winning 62-61 on their home court.  We expect a much different outcome in this rematch, especially since West Virginia is likely to be without their two starting guards, Juwan Staten (knee) and Gary Browne (leg).  Those two guys combined to score 26 points against Kansas in the first meeting, and since their replacements are inexperienced freshman, the Mountaineers will struggle mightily in this game.  Head coach Bob Huggins is also quite concerned:  “I think it hurts our depth.  That’s the biggest thing.  Our pressure isn’t nearly as good.”  The Mountaineers’ offense has struggled to score points all season, especially on the road where they are only averaging 65.3 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 28.8% shooting from three-point land.

Kansas is a perfect 14-0 SU at home this season, and they have plenty of motivation to beat West Virginia big in this game.  Kansas is playing for the outright Big 12 regular season title, and they are playing with revenge in their last home game of the season.  Overall, eleven of the Jayhawks’ fourteen home wins this season have come by 10 points or more with their average win coming by +14.1 points per game.  Kansas’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 64.1 points per game on 39.3% shooting from the field and 31.9% shooting from three-point land.  The Jayhawks also have a potent offense at home that is averaging 78.3 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 39.3% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with the Jayhawks in this game on Tuesday night.  

10* Play KANSAS (-).

Kentucky is obviously having a fantastic season; the Wildcats are a perfect 29-0 SU.  However, Kentucky’s offense hasn’t been as good on the road this season, so they can be had every time they play away from home.  Overall, the Wildcats average 75 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field.  On the road, Kentucky averages just 67.1 points per game on 43.4% shooting from the field.  That’s 7.9 points per game less and 3.7% shooting less per game, so the Wildcats appear to be a bit vulnerable away from home.  Kentucky also gets a poor match-up against Georgia in this game as the Bulldogs have a terrific 2-point defense.  Kentucky struggled against other strong 2-point defensive teams; they won 70-64 in overtime at Texas A&M, they only beat Vanderbilt 65-57 on their home court, and they escaped LSU 71-69.                 

Georgia is having a good season as the Bulldogs come into tonight’s game with a 19-9 record, including a strong 12-3 at home.  Georgia’s three home losses have come by a combined 11 points.  Georgia only lost by 11 points (69-58) at Kentucky earlier this season, so they are quite capable of hanging with the Wildcats on their home court.  Georgia’s offense has been terrific at home where they are averaging 70.1 points per game.  Georgia is also playing solid defense at home where they are holding opponents to just 61.2 points per game on 37.8% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land.  Georgia is also good on the glass, and that’s an area in which Kentucky has struggled this season.  The Bulldogs out-rebounded the Wildcats 34-22 in the first meeting.  Georgia’s ability to get second-chance points is another key factor in this game, and that advantage will keep them in this game throughout.  We’ll take the big points with Georgia in this game on Tuesday night.      

9* Play GEORGIA (+).

Georgetown and Butler have already played twice this season with the two teams splitting those games.  Butler won 64-58 in an early season tournament in the Bahamas, and Georgetown won 61-59 on their home court back in mid-January.  This third meeting will now take place on Butler’s strong home court, and the Hoyas will likely struggle tonight.  Georgetown is just 4-4 SU in true road games this season.  All four of the Hoyas’ road wins came when they were favored; they are 0-3 SU and ATS in conference road games as an underdog.  Those three losses came by 16, 3, and 17 points.  Georgetown’s defense is giving up 68 points per game on the road, and their perimeter defense has been terrible away from home.  The Hoyas are allowing opponents to hit 41.8% from three-point land on the road this season.  Georgetown’s 3-point defense is not in good current form either as they are allowing opponents to shoot 42.7% from beyond the arc over their last five games.

Butler returns home off an easy 67-53 road win at DePaul on Saturday afternoon.  The Bulldogs will be playing their last home game of the season, and they are also playing with revenge after losing by just 2 points at Georgetown in their last meeting.  Butler has played three of their last four games on the road, so we expect an extremely focused effort in this game.  The Bulldogs are 13-2 SU at home where their defense has been terrific, giving up just 57.3 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 29.7% shooting from three-point land.  Butler owns a +18.4 point differential on their home court where their offense is averaging 75.7 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 39.2% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Butler in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play BUTLER (-).

Oklahoma and Iowa State come into tonight’s game with identical 20-8 SU records.  The two teams are also similar in that they both play excellent basketball at home while struggling on the road.  In the first meeting in Oklahoma, the Sooners beat the Cyclones 94-83.  With this rematch now at Iowa State, we expect the home team to atone for their loss in Oklahoma.  The Sooners are just 5-5 in true road games this season with four of those losses coming in conference games.  Three of those four losses came by 7, 11, and 21 points.  Oklahoma has also struggled against bad teams in some of their road wins; they needed overtime to win at Texas Tech.  The Sooners’ defense is in poor current form as they’ve allowed 69.2 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  That poor defense is not going to cut it on the road against one of the best home offenses in the Big 12 that also plays on one of the toughest home courts in all of college basketball.

Iowa State returns home off a 70-69 loss at Kansas State on Saturday afternoon.  The Cyclones blew a 7-point halftime lead, and an 11-point lead with just over ten minutes left to play in the game.  It was their second consecutive loss; they lost their first home game of the season to Baylor last Wednesday night.  Iowa State is off back-to-back losses and playing with revenge in their last home game of the season.  This is a fantastic spot for the Cyclones to back bounce with a big win, and we expect them to do exactly that.  Iowa State is 14-1 SU at home this season where they own a terrific +16.5 point differential.  The Cyclones’ offense is averaging 82.1 points per game on 51.3% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State’s defense has also been much better at home where they are holding opponents to just 65.6 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field and 34.9% shooting from three-point land.  Iowa State is in a tremendous bounce back spot, so we’ll lay the points with the Cyclones in this game on Monday night.  

10* Play IOWA STATE (-).

Golden State has been the best team in the NBA all season.  The Warriors come into tonight’s game in Brooklyn with an impressive 46-11 record.  However, nine of their eleven losses have come on the road.  Tonight’s game in Brooklyn is an extremely difficult scheduling and situational spot, and we do not expect the Warriors to be at their best.  Golden State is playing their final game of a 6-game East Coast road trip, and this will also be their fourth game in five nights, and it comes on a back-to-back set.  Golden State expended a lot of energy in last night’s 106-101 win in Boston.  The Warriors trailed that game by 26 points at one point, and they were down by 11 points going into the fourth quarter; they out-scored Boston 31-15 over the final 12 minutes.  Four guys played 32 minutes or more, and three players played 37 minutes or more.  I watched the entire second half, and it was clear that Golden State was an exhausted team at the finish, and that was repeated over and over by their home commentators.  This is their eleventh away game over their past thirteen games, and their tenth away game over their last eleven games overall.  The Warriors are just 3-7 ATS during their past ten games, so they are not playing up to expectations right now.

Brooklyn has played terrific basketball since the All-Star break.  The Nets are only 3-2 SU in their five games, but their two losses only came by 4 and 6 point margins.  Brooklyn was on the road for all five of those games, and off an underdog win, the Nets return home tonight with a lot of confidence and momentum.  Brooklyn improved their playoff chances at the trading deadline, and those moves have made them a much better team.  The Nets traded for Thaddeus Young, and he says the time on the road was a huge benefit for himself and the team.  “I got a chance to hang out with the guys, and kind of get a feel for everything that’s going on,” Young said.  “It got me a chance to kind of get in the flow and everything.  With us being on the road, we had practice, we were able to watch film, we had a chance to have lunch meetings.  So it really helped me out a great deal.”  Deron Williams agrees:  “I think we’re getting better now with Thad out there.  He’s getting acquainted and accustomed to playing with us, and we just have to continue to work on our playoff push.”  Brooklyn only lost by 8 points (107-99) at Golden State earlier this season, so they can certainly play with the Warriors.  Golden State is simply in a terrible scheduling spot, so we’ll take the points with Brooklyn in this home game on Monday night.

9* Play NETS (+).

Purdue and Ohio State played on February 2nd with the Boilermakers winning 60-58 as 1.5-point home underdogs.  We expect a much different game in the rematch.  Purdue comes into tonight’s game with a respectable 19-9 record, and they are 9-1 over their last ten games.  However, the Boilermakers were gifted an easy schedule as of late, and the weak opponents have boosted their record to look better than the team actually is.  Over their last nine wins, Purdue beat Rutgers and Indiana twice; both of those teams are garbage.  Purdue also beat Nebraska, Northwestern, and Iowa.  And of those three teams, only Iowa is a halfway decent team.  Their other win was the aforementioned 2-point win over Ohio State.  The Boilermakers only scored 60 points on their home court against Ohio State, so it’s highly unlikely they will have offensive success tonight on the road.  Purdue’s offense is only averaging 65.1 points per game away from home this season.  

Ohio State is having another good season as they come into this game with a 20-8 record.  The Buckeyes are 16-1 at home, and tonight will be just their third home game since January 29th.  All sixteen of Ohio State’s home wins this season have come by 12 points or more; the Buckeyes own an incredible +25.4 point differential at home.  Ohio State has a terrific defense that is only giving up 59 points per game on 39.1% shooting from the field and 32.3% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  The Buckeyes’ offense averages 83.2 points per game on 54.3% shooting from the field and 42.7% shooting from three-point land at home.  In the first meeting at Purdue, the Buckeyes only hit 26.7% (4-15) from three, and they only attempted 6 free throws in the entire game.  Purdue got a favorable home whistle as they attempted 27 free throws.  Ohio State was also without Marc Loving who was suspended for that game; he’s back on the court now.  This is a big revenge spot for Ohio State, so we’ll lay the points with the Buckeyes in this game on Sunday night.   

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

Philadelphia and Indiana played right after the All-Star break and the Pacers won 106-95 on the Sixers’ home court.  We had a Best Bet winner on the Pacers in that game, and we’re going to use them once again in the rematch for similar reasons.  Philadelphia is the worse team in the NBA right now, especially on the road where they are just 5-25 on the season.  The Sixers made their objectives clear when they traded point guard Michael Carter-Williams to Milwaukee.  That deal just confirmed that the Sixers are tanking this season with their eye on the future.  Philadelphia does come in off a home win over Washington, but that win was nothing special as the Wizards are in free fall right now.  The Sixers closed as 7.5-point underdogs in that game; they were +8.5-point home underdogs to the Pacers in the recent meeting.  So even though this line looks high on the surface, it really isn’t when we put recent games into context.  Philadelphia’s offense is the worst in the league as they rank dead last in offensive efficiency metrics.  On the road, Philadelphia is only averaging 86.5 points per game on 39.9% shooting from the field and 30.5% shooting from three-point land.

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 over their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games, and the veteran Pacers have continued their momentum by going 3-1 SU and ATS out of the break.  Indiana just beat Cleveland at home, but the Cavaliers were without LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.  The Pacers were favored in that game, so it’s unlikely they’ll letdown off the ‘signature’ win.  Indiana is simply the vastly superior team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night.   

9* Play PACERS (-).

Arizona and Utah played last month with the Wildcats embarrassing the Utes 69-51.  However, we expect a much different result in the rematch, especially since Arizona is in a tough scheduling spot for this game.  Arizona just played in Colorado on the Thursday night; that game was played at elevation of 5,340 feet.  Tonight they will play in Salt Lake City which has an elevation of 4,226 feet.  Teams playing the Colorado to Utah road trip have been horrendous on the backend of the trip, and Arizona is not immune to this significant disadvantage.  The Wildcats are a very good team that is 25-3 on the season, but they are up against it in this game.  Arizona played a perfect game at Colorado as they shot 52.9% (27-51) from the field and 50% (5-10) from three-point land.  They also hit 92% (23-25) from the free throw line.  They didn’t need that big of a performance to beat a poor Colorado team, and off such a perfect game, we expect regression, especially against a very good Utah defense.         

Utah is a perfect 16-0 at home this season, and this is their most important game.  The Utes were swept by Arizona in three games last season, including a 67-63 overtime loss at home.  Utah has their best team in a decade, and if they are ever going to beat Arizona, this is the game.  Fifteen of Utah’s sixteen home wins this season have come by 15 points or more, so that shows just how dominate they’ve been.  Their lone close home win (69-68) came over a very good Wichita State team.  Utah has an incredible +25.4 point differential at home.  The Utes’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 55.7 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Utah offense is averaging 81.1 points per game on 52.5% shooting from the field and 45.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the short price with Utah, especially since Arizona is playing on a tough back-to-back road set.       

9* Play UTAH (-).

Richmond is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game at St. Joseph’s.  The Spiders come in off their biggest win of the season on Wednesday night; they beat VCU 67-63 in double overtime.  Richmond looked like a sure loser, but they got some fortunate bounces at the end to go their way and they escaped with a lucky win.  Richmond actually swept VCU this season for the first time in 15 years, so they are certain to play with a hangover in tonight’s game against St. Joseph’s.  The Spiders are just 2-9 in true road games this season, so they really have no business laying points away from home.  Richmond’s defense has been much worse on the road this season.  The Spiders are giving up 65.1 points per game on 44% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land away from home.  They own a -2.7 point differential on the road, and their two road wins came unexpectedly as they were underdogs in both games.     

St. Joseph’s returns home off a confidence-building 82-71 road win at Massachusetts as 6-point underdogs.  A home underdog off a SU road underdog win is a profitable profile, and the Hawks fit the situation perfectly.  St. Joseph’s has played three of their last four games on the road, and since they lost their last home game in overtime, we expect an extremely focused effort in this game.  St. Joseph’s defense has been terrific at home where they are holding their opponents to just 59.9 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field.  The Hawks own a +4.3 point differential on their home court, so they hold a +7.0 point differential over Richmond based on the home and road splits.  St. Joseph’s holds a lot of value in this game, and since Richmond is off a huge win, we’ll take the points with the Hawks in this game on Saturday night.      

10* Play ST. JOSEPH’S (+).

Texas and Kansas played last month with the Jayhawks winning 75-62 on the Longhorns’ home court.  We expect a similar outcome in the rematch.  Texas is in terrible current form as they’ve lost three consecutive games, and they are just 3-7 over their last ten games.  The Longhorns’ offense has struggled to score points all season, especially on the road where they are only averaging 64 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field and 33% shooting from three-point land.  Texas was limited by the Kansas defense in the first meeting; the Longhorns shot just 40% (24-60) from the field and 16.7% (3-18) from three-point land.  And that was on their home court, so things won’t be any better in this game on the road.  Texas has not fared too well on the road at Kansas as they’ve lost by 31 and 26 points over the last two years.  The Longhorns have been struggling all season, and this game will result in another poor performance.      

Kansas is a perfect 13-0 at home this season, and they have plenty of motivation to beat Texas big in this game.  Kansas is playing for the Big 12 regular season title, and after a poor performance at Kansas State on Monday night, they held a players only meeting.  Reports indicate the Jayhawks are a focused team, so we expect a peak effort in this game.  Kansas has been terrific when playing at home off a road loss this season.  The Jayhawks are a perfect 4-0 in this situation while winning by an average of 15 points per game.  Overall, twelve of the Jayhawks’ thirteen home wins this season have come by 8 points or more with their average win coming by 14.8 points per game.  Kansas’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 64.2 points per game on 39.4% shooting from the field and 32.1% shooting from three-point land.  The Jayhawks also have a potent offense at home that is averaging 79 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with the Jayhawks in this game on Saturday night.       

9* Play KANSAS (-).

Golden State has been the best team in the NBA all season.  The Warriors come into tonight’s game in Toronto with an impressive 44-11 SU record.  However, nine of their eleven losses have come on the road, including last night’s 110-99 defeat in Cleveland.  Tonight’s game in Toronto is a difficult scheduling and situational spot, and we do not expect the Warriors to be at their best even though they are coming off a loss.  Golden State is playing their fourth of a six-game East Coast road trip, and this will also be their third game in four nights.  The Warriors are also getting road weary as this is their eighth away game over their last nine games, and their tenth away game over their last thirteen games.  The Warriors are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games, so they are not playing up to expectations right now.

Toronto’s post All-Star break has not been good; the Raptors are just 1-3 SU and ATS over their last four games.  However, all four of those games have come on the road, so tonight will be their first home game since February 11th.  Toronto has been strong at home where they are 21-9 SU on the season.  The Raptors own a solid +6.3 point differential at home where they are averaging 103.2 points per game while only giving up 96.9 points per game.  Toronto’s offense will have success against Golden State as the Warriors’ defense is allowing 101.2 points per game on the road this season.  The Warriors are not in good form right now as they only own a +0.8 point differential during their past five games.  Toronto is in a good scheduling spot as they’ve had two full days to get ready for this revenge game.  We’ll take the points with Toronto in this home game on Friday night.

9* Play RAPTORS (+).

Cleveland is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Indiana.  The Cavaliers come in off a big spotlight win at home last night against the Golden State Warriors; Cleveland won that game 110-99.  Cleveland shot 46.8% (36-77) from the field while hitting 82.9% (29-35) from the free throw line.  The Cavaliers were an aggressive team last night, and they had five players score in double digits.  LeBron James played his best game of the season with 42 points on 60% (15-25) shooting from the field and 44.4% (4-9) shooting from three-point land.  That was a huge win for Cleveland, and it was a game they wanted after losing by 16 points at Golden State earlier this season.  Now the Cavaliers must take to the road without rest while playing their third game in four nights.  They also had plane troubles last night, and they were actually scheduled to fly to Indiana early this morning.  It’s hard to imagine Cleveland bringing their best effort to Indiana tonight.

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 SU during their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as a team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games, and the veteran Pacers continued their momentum by going 2-0 SU and ATS out of the break.  Indiana got blown out in Oklahoma City (105-92) on Tuesday, but that was just a 1-point game right before the start of the fourth quarter.  The Pacers have now had two full days to get ready for tonight’s game, and they are catching Cleveland at the perfect time.  We’ll take the points with the Pacers in this game on Friday night.

10* Play PACERS (+).

Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season right now, and we expect their major roll to continue.  The Thunder are on a 7-game winning streak, and they’ve won nine of their last ten games overall.  Oklahoma City has won their last two games without Kevin Durant who sat out with a foot injury.  Durant is out indefinitely, but we still like Oklahoma City to win this game easily.  The Thunder are 32-25 SU on the season, and they need every win they can get in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Oklahoma City’s offense has been fantastic since the All-Star break.  They are averaging 109.5 points per game on 44.9% (168-374) shooting from the field.  Oklahoma City’s defense has also been terrific as they are only giving up 94.5 points per game on 39.6% (146-369) shooting from the field over their last four games.      

Phoenix played last night in Denver, and the Suns got a much needed 110-96 win.  That win actually means very little because the Nuggets are a team in free fall, and the Suns simply took advantage of Denver’s lack of effort.  Tonight will be a much stiffer challenge for the Suns, and their previous games indicate they’ll be up against it.  In their first three games after the All-Star break, the Suns went 0-3 SU.  Phoenix’s defense was atrocious in those three games as they gave up 111, 112, and 115 points while allowing those teams to shoot a combined 46.7% (122-261) from the field.  The Suns have not been good in back-to-back games this season; they are just 4-9 SU while getting out-scored by 3.6 points per game.  The Phoenix defense will be unable to contain the hot Oklahoma City offense, and that will be the determining factor in this game.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Thursday night.    

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Minnesota was a scrappy team early in conference play, but their close losses piled up and those defeats have taken something out of the team.  Minnesota comes into tonight’s game on a 3-game losing streak with their two road losses coming by 10 and 19 points.  The Golden Gophers will play their fourth road game over their last five games, and they will be playing one of the best teams in the conference.  Minnesota’s defense has been terrible over their last five games as they’ve given up 68.4 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 44.6% shooting from three-point land.  Minnesota’s offense has really struggled to score points away from home this season.  The Gophers are only averaging 62.4 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land.  Minnesota will have a difficult time scoring tonight against a very good Spartans’ defense.            

Michigan State is still flying well under the radar, both in conference play and on a national level.  The Spartans are one of the best teams in the Big 10, and I rank them second behind Wisconsin.  Michigan State has the best defense in the conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  The Spartans are 19-8 on the season, so they appear to be just an average team on the surface.  But they are much better than that record indicates.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 59 points per game on 37.5% shooting from the field and 29.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Over their last five games, the Spartans have held their opponents to just 55.8 points per game.  Michigan State is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Spartans in this game on Thursday night.        

9* Play MICHIGAN STATE (-).

Evansville and Northern Iowa played on January 1st with the Purple Aces winning 52-49 as 3.5-point home underdogs.  That didn’t seem like a big upset back then, but with Northern Iowa 26-2 and ranked #10 in the country, that was a major upset.  Evansville is the only conference team to beat Northern Iowa this season, but the Purple Aces were playing much better basketball back then.  Evansville was 10-2 going into that first game against Northern Iowa, but since that win, the Purple Aces have gone just 8-7 over their last 15 games.  Evansville is just 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS over their last seven games, including two blowout losses on the road.  The Purple Aces lost by 19 points at Wichita State, and they lost by 26 points at Illinois State.  Evansville’s offense has been much worse away from home this season.  The Purple Aces are only averaging 62.7 points per game on the road; they scored just 43 and 51 points in their last two road losses.  Evansville only scored 52 points against Northern Iowa on their home court, so there’s little chance they will have a good offensive game tonight.         

Northern Iowa is a very good team that not many people know about.  The Panthers are a perfect 14-0 at home, and tonight is their last home game of the season.  Northern Iowa is a humble team, and their success hasn’t made them complacent at all.  “They want more,” Northern Iowa head coach Ben Jacobson said.  “There hasn’t been a point in the season where I felt like they’ve been satisfied with a particular game or particular win.”  Northern Iowa has had this game versus Evansville circled since losing; they blew a 16-point lead in that game.  The Panthers have one of the best defenses in the country, and we full expect them to shutdown Evansville in this game.  Northern Iowa is only giving up 53.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field and 29.1% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Northern Iowa has won their last four home games by 16 points or more, and we expect another blowout win tonight.  This is a big revenge spot for Northern Iowa, so we’ll lay the points with the Panthers in this game on Wednesday night.   

9* Play NORTHERN IOWA (-).

Washington is in a free fall right now.  The Wizards look nothing like the team that opened the season at 19-6.  Washington comes into tonight’s game in Minnesota on a 4-game losing streak, and they are just 4-11 over their last 15 games.  Washington played an ‘all-in’ game last night at home against Golden State.  The Wizards put everything they had into that game, and they were on the brink of a big win, but they blew the game in the final minutes.  Now they must travel and play in lowly Minnesota without rest off that emotional-draining 114-107 home loss.  The Wizards are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for this game, and we expect their losing ways to continue.  Washington’s defense has been atrocious since the All-Star break as they’ve allowed 127, 106, and 114 points in their three games.  The Wizards will struggle once again tonight, especially since the Timberwolves have scored 102 and 111 points in their two games since the All-Star break.   

Minnesota reacquired Kevin Garnett at the trading deadline.  While KG’s return to the Twin Cities is somewhat nostalgic, we’re not so sure how much of a positive this is for the growth of the team when looking at the long-term.  Minnesota is a youthful bunch plays loose and free, but Garnett is all business all the time, and that may bother the young guys as the season goes on.  However, tonight’s game is an exception, and we expect a supreme effort from the entire Minnesota team.  Garnett will be playing his first game since the trade, and the Timberwolves intentionally held him out so he could play at home.  Reports indicate Minnesota had a spirited practice yesterday with Garnett, and tonight’s game will bring out their best.  The Timberwolves have been good in their two games since the break, including a nice home win over the Suns.  Minnesota’s recent home schedule has been brutal with games against the Warriors, Hawks, Grizzlies, and Cavaliers.  They are taking a major step-down in class against the floundering Wizards, and this is a game Minnesota has a lot of motivation to win.  We’ll lay the points with the Minnesota in this game on Wednesday night.    

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

UNLV and Utah State played a month ago with the Rebels winning 79-77 in overtime as 5.5-point home favorites.  UNLV was in a good spot for that first meeting as they were coming in off a previous home loss while Utah State was playing on a back-to-back road set after winning by 16 points as road underdogs in Nevada in their previous game.  The roles are now reversed for the rematch as UNLV is the team that comes into tonight’s game in a terrible scheduling and situational spot.  The Rebels had an emotional week, and we expect a hangover effort tonight.  Last Wednesday night, UNLV hosted Boise State and lost the game in the last minute.  That game was dedicated to Jerry Tarkanian, and Las Vegas turned the Strip lights off after the game.  After that, UNLV played at New Mexico and won 76-68 as 4.5-point underdogs.  On Monday, Tarkanian was laid to rest.  Now the team must travel again, and play in the thin air and altitude of Logan, Utah while playing an opponent that is in terrific current form and looking to avenge an earlier season loss.  The Rebels will be hard-pressed to be competitive in this game considering the circumstances the team has been thru over the last week.      

Utah State is playing their best basketball of the season right now.  The Aggies have won and covered four consecutive games, including a perfect 2-0 in home games.  In the first meeting in Las Vegas, the Aggies shot 48.1% (26-54) from the field, so they know they can have success scoring on UNLV.  Over their last five games, the Utah State offense is averaging 72.4 points per game on 52.2% shooting from the field and 41.3% shooting from three-point land.  UNLV’s defense has been terrible on the road this season as they are giving up 72.6 points per game on 43.6% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land.  Utah State has a +6 point differential at home this season while UNLV has a -5.2 point differential on the road.  UNLV is also without their best scorer, Rashad Vaughn, who scored 31 points in the first meeting against Utah State.  This is a bad spot for UNLV and a good revenge spot for Utah State, so we’ll lay the points with the Aggies in this game on Tuesday night.   

10* Play UTAH STATE (-).

Michigan State is flying well under the radar, both in conference play and on a national level.  The Spartans are one of the best teams in the Big 10, and I rank them second behind Wisconsin.  Michigan State has the best defense in the conference based on efficiency metrics, and they have a similar look to the vintage teams coached by Tom Izzo as they are tenacious on the offensive and defensive glass.  The Spartans are 18-8 on the season, so they appear to be just an average team on the surface.  But they are much better than that record indicates.  Michigan State’s defense is only allowing 61.4 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the field and 30.3% shooting from three-point land.  Over their last six games, the Spartans have held their opponents to just 57.2 points per game.     

Illinois comes into this game with a 17-9 record, but the Illini roster is in flux right now.  Illinois has injuries and suspensions.  “There’s a lot of things happening that make things very, very fluid,” head coach John Groce said.  “Of course we’re playing lineups that are different from what we played prior. We don’t have that luxury right now.”  Illinois’ offense is in terrible current form as they’ve averaged just 59.6 points per game on 41.1% shooting from the field over their last five games.  Illinois pulled off a major upset when they beat Michigan State 59-54 as 10-point road underdogs on February 7th.  Michigan State has had this game circled since, so we can expect a peak performance by the Spartans tonight.  This is a good spot for Michigan State to get a big win, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday night.    

10* Play MICHIGAN STATE.

Denver took advantage of the trading deadline by unloading unwanted players and clearing big money off their books.  The Nuggets are looking towards the future, and their remaining 28 games are a tool for them to get higher in the draft.  Denver is packing this season in as they just traded away one third of their roster that opened the season.  “It’s a long-term vision, certainly,” Nuggets general manager Tim Connelly said.  “The ultimate goal is to figure out how we can get 15 guys in that locker room that can play at a high enough level for us to compete for a championship.”  Those words tell us all we need to know, and against good teams, the Nuggets simply do not have enough to be competitive.  And the players are more concerned about themselves than the team: “It’s tough to say you’re trying to fight for a playoff position, because we’re kind of out of that. But just get better as individuals,” said Wilson Chandler.  The Nuggets played with no effort on Friday night as they scored just 81 points in their loss in Milwaukee.  Things are not going to get any easier tonight against a highly motivated Thunder team.  

Oklahoma City came thru for us again last night in their 110-103 win in Charlotte.  The Thunder won without Kevin Durant who sat out and rested his foot.  Durant is questionable again tonight, but even if he doesn’t play, we still like Oklahoma City to win this game easily.  The Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now, and we expect them to go on a major run in the second half.  The Thunder are on a 5-game winning streak, and they’ve won seven of their last eight games overall.  Oklahoma City is 30-25 SU on the season, and they need every win they can get in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  The Thunder are a strong 17-8 on their home court where they are averaging 103.4 points per game on 45% shooting from the field.  Oklahoma City has been terrific on back-to-back sets as they are 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS while averaging 104.4 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Sunday night.    

9* Play THUNDER (-).

Golden State has been the best team in the NBA all season.  The Warriors come into tonight’s game in Indiana with an impressive 43-9 record.  However, seven of their nine losses have come on the road, and tonight’s game is not one that they will be too focused for.  Golden State is playing their first of a 6-game East Coast road trip, and their next three games after tonight are much bigger than this game.  After playing the Pacers, the Warriors will play in Washington, Cleveland, and Toronto who are a combined 104-62 on the season.  Those three teams are all in the top five of the Eastern Conference standings, so Golden State will save themselves for those three games and simply go thru the motions tonight in Indiana.   

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 over their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games, and the veteran Pacers continued their momentum with an easy 106-95 win in Philadelphia coming out of the break.  Indiana has a +5.4 point differential over their last five games stretching back before the All-Star break.  To compare, Golden State has a +5 point differential over the same span.  Indiana simply holds a lot of value right now, so we’ll take the points with the Pacers in this game on Sunday night.       

9* Play PACERS (+).

Oklahoma City came thru for us on Thursday night with an easy 104-89 Best Bet winner over Dallas.  We’ll come right back with the Thunder in this game for the same reasons.  Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season right now, and we expect them to go on a major run in the second half.  The Thunder are on a 4-game winning streak, and they’ve won six of their last seven games overall.  Oklahoma City is 29-25 SU on the season, and they need every win they can get in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the court near Thanksgiving, and the Thunder have gone 26-13 SU during their last thirty-nine games compared to just 3-12 at the start of the season.  Overall this season, Oklahoma City is averaging 100.7 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field.  The Thunder crushed Charlotte by 23 points (98-75) earlier this season even though Durant did not play in that game.  He is listed as questionable tonight due to a foot injury.

Charlotte is having a very disappointing season.  The Hornets come into tonight’s game with a 22-30 SU record, including a losing 13-15 record at home.  Charlotte went into the All-Star break in terrible form as they had lost three straight games, including their last two games at home.  Charlotte has the second worst offense in the NBA as they rank 29th in offensive efficiency.  Overall this season, the Hornets are only averaging 94.3 points per game on 42.2% shooting from the field and 30.8% shooting from three-point land.  The Hornets are also up against it since they will be playing their first game since February 10th while the Thunder will be playing their second game since the All-Star break.  Oklahoma City is simply the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Thunder in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play THUNDER (-).

Iowa State and Texas played last month with the Cyclones winning 89-86 at home.  The impressive part of that game was the fact that Texas made a big comeback on Iowa State’s strong home court.  The Cyclones led that game 60-39 at one point, but the Longhorns battled back and only lost that game by 3 points.  Today’s game will be played on Texas’ home court, and we expect them to avenge their earlier loss, especially since the Cyclones are off a fortunate win at Oklahoma State on Wednesday night.  The Cyclones ended that game on a 9-0 run to win 70-65 despite shooting just 39.3% (24-61) from the field and 30% (6-20) from three-point land.  Iowa State is just 3-4 SU in true road games this season, including 2-4 in conference play.  Iowa State’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 78.1 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field and 39.7% shooting from three-point land.       

Texas is a strong 11-4 at home this season, and they have plenty of motivation to beat Iowa State big in this game.  Texas is playing with double revenge after losing earlier this season and last season.  Texas returns home off a road loss, so we expect a peak effort in this game.  All eleven of the Longhorns’ home wins this season have come by 10 points or more.  Texas has an incredible +15.5 point differential at home.  The Longhorns’ defense has been terrific at home this season as they are holding opponents to just 55.4 points per game on 33.8% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land.  The Texas offense is averaging 70.9 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field at home.  We’ll lay the points with the Longhorns in this game on Saturday afternoon.        

9* Play TEXAS (-).

Kansas State and Baylor played last month with the Wildcats winning 63-61 as 2-point home favorites.  That game was a tale of two halves.  Baylor led 33-24 at the half before Kansas State out-scored them 39-28 in the second half.  Baylor actually led that game by 12 points in the second half, so it was a big comeback win by the Wildcats.  But this game is on the road, and they’ll be no comeback for the Wildcats this time.  Kansas State is just 1-8 SU in true road games this season.  The Wildcats’ offense has been terrible on the road.  Kansas State is only averaging 59.9 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 29.8% shooting from three-point land away from home.  Their offense has been even worse over their last five games as they are averaging just 58 points per game on 37.3% shooting from the field.

Baylor returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a win at Texas Tech.  Baylor has played three of their last four games on the road, and their last home game was a loss to Oklahoma State.  The Bears will be extremely focused on this game, and we expect them to bring their best effort.  Baylor plays on a very strong home court where they are a 13-2 SU this season with their average win coming by a whopping 18.6 points per game.  Baylor has a terrific defense, especially at home.  The Bears are holding their opponents to just 56.9 points per game on 39% shooting from the field and 29.1% shooting from three-point land.  Baylor is also a very good offensive rebounding team; the Bears collected 11 offensive rebounds while holding Kansas State to just 6 in the first meeting.  This is a good revenge spot for Baylor, so we’ll lay the points with the Bears in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play BAYLOR (-).

Pittsburgh and Syracuse just played two weeks ago with the Panthers winning 83-77 as 3.5-point home favorites.  We remember that game well as we had a Best Bet winner on Pittsburgh.  The main factor in that handicap was the fact that Syracuse imposed a post-season ban right after coming off a big come from behind win the night before.  It was a flat spot for Syracuse, and even though they lost, they actually played much better than expected.  Since that win, Pittsburgh has gone 1-2 SU and ATS with the two losses coming by 12 and 13 points.  The Panthers are just 1-6 in true road games this season.  Pittsburgh’s defense has been bad away from home as they are giving up 69.7 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land.  Pittsburgh has a -10.1 point differential on the road this season as four of their five conference road losses have come by 12 points or more.         

Syracuse has played good basketball since their loss in Pittsburgh.  The Orange have gone 2-1, including a 69-59 home win over Louisville in their last game.  Their loss came against Duke, so there’s no shame in that defeat.  Syracuse led by double digits at Pittsburgh, and they led 72-71 with just three minutes left to play in the game.  Despite losing, the Orange were the better team in that game, and with the rematch on their strong home court (13-3), we expect them to avenge that loss.  Syracuse has a +12.9 point differential at home this season.  Their offense is averaging 71.8 points per game on 45% shooting from the field.  Syracuse has played terrific defense at home as well as they are only allowing 58.9 points per game on 38.2% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Syracuse in this early game on Saturday afternoon.     

9* Play SYRACUSE (-).

Indiana wasn’t expected to be much this season after their three best players, Paul George, David West, and George Hill began the year on the injury list.  The Pacers went just 15-30 over their first forty-five games.  But Hill and West have returned from injury, and we saw the Pacers come together as team right before the All-Star break.  Indiana closed the first half of the season by going 6-3 over their last nine games; they were a perfect 3-0 on the road during that span.  The Pacers have a veteran team, and we expect them to continue their momentum coming out of the break.  Indiana gets an easy opponent tonight in Philadelphia; the Pacers beat the Sixers 103-91 in their season opener.  They did lose 93-92 in Philadelphia last month, so that loss ensures they will not overlook the Sixers in this game.  George Hill missed that last meeting, and with him on the court, the Pacers are simply a vastly superior team, especially against a young and thin Philadelphia team.    

Philadelphia made a surprising trade yesterday when they shipped point guard Michael Carter-Williams to Milwaukee.  The Sixers got a first round draft pick in return, but that deal just confirms that the Sixers are tanking this season with their eye on the future.  Philadelphia was playing good basketball to close the first half, but for a young team, the All-Star break came at the wrong time.  The Sixers are not used to having a long break, and that disruption broke up their rhythm, and that is not a good thing for an inexperienced team.  Philadelphia is just 7-19 on their home court where they are giving up 100.2 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field this season.  The Sixers’ offense is the worst in the league as they rank dead last in offensive efficiency metrics.  Overall, Philadelphia is only averaging 89.8 points per game on 41% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land.  Indiana will begin the second half strong, so we’ll lay the points with the Pacers in this game on Friday night.       

10* Play PACERS (-).

San Diego upset BYU 77-74 as 4-point home underdogs earlier this season.  That was a fluky result for San Diego as it was the first time the Toreros scored more than 60 points in a conference game this season.  San Diego trailed by 5 points at the half before rallying back and out-scoring BYU 44-36 in the second half.  The Toreros played well above their offensive level in that game, and it’s highly unlikely they can repeat that performance in the rematch against BYU.  San Diego is just 3-6 SU in true road games while only averaging 61.8 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field.  The Toreros are in an extremely strange scheduling spot as this is their first game of the season outside the state of California, plus it takes place in the thin air and altitude of Provo, Utah.  San Diego is also off an emotionally draining game on Saturday.  The Toreros were home underdogs to St. Mary’s, and after trailing by 11 points at the half, San Diego made a big comeback and forced overtime.  But they ended up losing that game 69-62, and that defeat halted their mini winning streak.  Now they must take to the road and face a motivated BYU looking to avenge their earlier loss.

BYU is in tremendous current form right now as the Cougars are on a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS run.  BYU has won their last three games by 19, 22, and 25 points.  The Cougars have won five of their last six games by an average of 18.2 points per game.  They come into tonight’s game with a 20-8 SU record, including a 12-3 mark on their home court.  BYU is playing their final home game of the season, and they have four seniors that want to go out with a big win.  BYU’s offense has been tremendous, especially on their home court.  The Cougars are averaging 71.8 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field.  This is a big revenge game for BYU, and the Cougars have crushed San Diego by an average of 22.3 points per game in their last three visits to Provo.  We’ll lay the points with BYU in this game on Thursday night. 

9* Play BYU (-).

Dallas started this season off hot; the Mavericks were 15-5 after their first twenty games.  But since then, Dallas has played up and down basketball while going just 21-14 over their last thirty-five games.  Dallas was playing excellent defense with Rajon Rondo on the court, but when he got injured, the Mavericks had to revert back to their old ways of fast-pace and no defense.  When facing good, high-octane offenses, Dallas has had trouble winning and keeping those opponents from scoring a lot of points.  Tonight’s game in Oklahoma City will be an extreme test for the Mavericks, and we just don’t see Dallas being competitive.  Overall this season, Dallas is giving up 101 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.  The Mavericks’ defense has been torched by the Thunder’s offense; Dallas has allowed Oklahoma City to score 103 points or more in eight of the last nine meetings while giving up an average of 107.7 points per game.

Oklahoma City was playing their best basketball of the season right before the All-Star break, and we expect them to extend that run beginning tonight.  The Thunder are on a 3-game winning streak, and they’ve won five of their last six games overall.  Oklahoma City is 28-25 SU on the season, and they need every win they can get in order to get positioned for a playoff push.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the court near Thanksgiving, and since then, the Thunder have gone 25-13 SU over their last thirty-eight games compared to 3-12 to start the season.  Overall this season, Oklahoma City is 16-8 at home while averaging 103.3 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field.  The Thunder only lost by 5 points in Dallas earlier this season even though Durant did not play in that game.  Oklahoma City will begin the second half strong, so we’ll lay the points with the Thunder in this game on Thursday night.      

10* Play THUNDER (-).