Cleveland lost 5-0 in Oakland last night, but we expect a much different outcome on Saturday night.  The Indians will start Corey Kluber who has a fantastic 2.80 ERA and 0.99 WHIP this season with a 123/24 strikeout/walk ratio.  He enters in excellent current form with a 1.29 ERA and 0.76 WHIP in his past three starts and he projects to have another strong outing against Oakland’s lineup based on my numbers.  Kluber is slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a solid 3.38 ERA and an excellent 1.13 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a strong 10.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 3.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Athletics in this game.  In road games this season, Kluber has given up just 12 earned runs on 25 hits in 33 innings of work while earning a 3.27 ERA and a fantastic 0.97 WHIP.  Oakland’s lineup has hit just .203 (12-for-59) with a weak .547 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Kluber during his career.  He is backed by a strong Cleveland bullpen that has a 2.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season, converting 87% of their save attempts (20-for-23).

Oakland will send Paul Blackburn to the mound tonight.  My numbers project a poor outing for Blackburn against Cleveland’s lineup.  He projects to give up 2.8 earned runs with a poor 4.98 ERA and a terrible 1.52 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a weak 5.0 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.3 strikeout/walk ratio against the Indians this evening.  Blackburn will be making just his third start of the season.  In his first two outings against a pair of mediocre offenses, Blackburn gave up 11 hits in 13.2 innings of work.  He is now taking a major step up in class for this start, especially since Cleveland’s offense has hit .290 over their last seven games.  The Indians also average 4.9 runs per game against right-handed starters, so we expect Blackburn to have his worst outing of the season tonight.  He is backed by an inconsistent Oakland bullpen that has a 4.95 ERA with 13 losses and 10 blown saves this year.  We’ll back the Indians on the run line in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play INDIANS (-1.5 runline).

Detroit will begin a 3-game series in Cleveland on Friday night.  The Tigers will send Jordan Zimmermann to the mound who has a terrible 6.45 ERA and 1.63 WHIP on the road this year.  The Tigers are 1-7 SU in those games and my numbers project another poor outing against Cleveland’s lineup tonight.  Zimmermann projects to give up 3.3 earned runs with a terrible 5.42 ERA and a poor 1.49 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a weak 6.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Indians tonight.  Zimmermann comes into this game in terrible current form.  Over his last three starts, the Detroit starter owns a horrendous 6.61 ERA after giving up 12 earned runs on 17 hits in 16.1 innings of work.  Cleveland’s lineup has hit a terrific .326 (15-for-46) with a .989 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Zimmermann during his career.  He is backed by an awful Detroit bullpen that has a 6.95 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road this season where they have blown 9 of their 17 save attempts.  The Indians’ offense has been stronger at home versus right-handed pitchers this year, averaging 5.4 runs per nine innings with a .267 batting average, compared to just 4.2 runs and .249 versus LHP.

Cleveland will start Carlos Carrasco who has a 3.50 ERA and a strong 1.06 WHIP with a 103/26 strikeout/walk ratio this season.  The Indians are 13-3 SU in his starts and Carrasco projects to have another fantastic outing against Detroit’s lineup based on my numbers.  He is slated to give up 2.3 earned runs with a solid 3.45 ERA and an excellent 1.14 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a strong 10.4 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an incredible 4.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Tigers in this game.  In night games this season, Carrasco is 7-1 after giving up 26 earned runs on 53 hits in 67.1 innings of work while earning a 3.48 ERA and a fantastic 1.04 WHIP in those games.  Detroit’s lineup has hit just .235 (58-for-247) with a .658 OPS against Carrasco during his career.  He is backed by a strong Cleveland bullpen that has a 2.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP this season while converting 87% of their save attempts (20-for-23).  The Tigers’ offense has been weaker versus right-handed pitchers on the road this year, averaging just 4.1 runs per nine innings with a .221 batting average, compared to 4.7 runs and .267 versus RHP.  We’ll back the Indians on the run line in this game on Friday night.

10* Play INDIANS (-1.5 runline).

Baltimore beat Toronto 3-1 last night, but we expect a much different outcome on Wednesday night.  The Orioles will send Wade Miley to the mound and my numbers project a poor outing for him against Toronto’s lineup.  Miley projects to give up 3.1 earned runs with a terrible 5.17 ERA and an ugly 1.54 WHIP in this game.  The lefty also projects to have a weak 6.8 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.7 strikeout/walk ratio against the Blue Jays tonight.  Miley comes into this game in terrible current form.  Over his last three starts, Miley owns a horrendous 10.38 ERA and a woeful 2.15 WHIP after giving up 15 earned runs on 20 hits in just 13 innings of work.  Toronto’s lineup has hit a solid .291 (46-for-158) with a .787 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Miley during his career.  He is backed by a suspect Baltimore bullpen that has a 4.84 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road this season.

Toronto will start Marcus Stroman who projects to have a fantastic outing against Baltimore’s lineup based on my numbers.  Stroman is slated to give up 2.5 earned runs with a solid 3.69 ERA and an excellent 1.19 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a strong 8.0 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an incredible 4.0 strikeout/walk ratio against the Orioles in this game.  At home this season, Stroman has given up just 19 earned runs in 52 innings of work while earning a 3.29 ERA and a solid 1.23 WHIP in those games with a 42/10 strikeout/walk ratio.  We’ll back the Blue Jays on the run line in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play BLUE JAYS (-1.5 runline).

Minnesota will begin a 4-game series in Boston against the Red Sox on Monday night.  The Twins will send Jose Berrios to the mound and my numbers project a poor outing for Berrios against Boston’s lineup.  He projects to give up 3.3 earned runs with a terrible 5.12 ERA and an ugly 1.53 WHIP in this game.  The righty has good overall numbers on the season, but those stats are skewed because of the weak offenses he has faced.  Berrios is taking a major step-up in class tonight against Boston’s lineup tonight.  The Red Sox have scored 43 total runs in their last eight home games.  Overall at home, Boston’s lineup is hitting .279 while averaging a solid 4.7 runs per game this season.

Boston will start Chris Sale who has a an excellent 2.85 ERA and 0.90 WHIP this season with a 146/19 strikeout/walk ratio.  He projects to have another fantastic outing against Minnesota’s lineup based on my numbers.  Sale is slated to give up 2.5 earned runs with a solid 3.34 ERA and an excellent 1.06 WHIP in this game.  The lefty also projects to have a strong 12.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an incredible 6.2 strikeout/walk ratio against the Twins tonight.  Minnesota’s offense only has 48 hits in 182 plate appearances against Sale during his career.  Boston is 6-1 SU with Sale at home his season where he has given up just 14 earned runs on 34 hits in 51.1 innings of work with a terrific 2.45 ERA and a sterling 0.84 WHIP with a 65/9 strikeout/walk ratio.  The Twins have been weaker offensively on the road versus left-handed pitchers this season, averaging just 3.9 runs per nine innings with a .210 batting average, compared to 5.0 runs and .260 versus RHP.  Boston's bullpen has been excellent at home with a perfect 7-0 record and 2.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while converting 92% of their save attempts (11-for-12).  We’ll back the Red Sox on the run line in this game on Monday night.

10* Play RED SOX (-1.5 runline).

Colorado lost 6-1 in Los Angeles to the Dodgers last night, and we expect more of the same tonight.  The Rockies will send Tyler Chatwood to the mound this evening.  My numbers project a poor outing for Chatwood against Los Angeles’ lineup.  He projects to give up 2.6 earned runs with a poor 4.30 ERA in this game.  The righty hasn't been at his best in night games this season.  Chatwood has given up 31 earned runs on 55 hits in 56 innings of work while earning a terrible 4.98 ERA and an ugly 1.52 WHIP in those outings.  Chatwood has also struggled mightily against the Los Angeles lineup.  The Dodgers have hit .300 (24-for-80) with a strong .967 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Chatwood during his career.  The Los Angeles offense is in excellent current form; they’ve hit a terrific .308 while averaging a whopping 8.6 runs per game over their last seven games, winning by +5.6 runs per game.

Los Angeles will start Clayton Kershaw who is 10-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.93 WHIP this season.  He projects to have another fantastic outing against Colorado’s lineup based on my numbers.  Kershaw is slated to give up just 1.9 earned runs with a terrific 2.43 ERA and a sterling 0.86 WHIP in this game.  The lefty also projects to have a strong 11.0 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an incredible 8.5 strikeout/walk ratio against the Rockies tonight.  Colorado’s offense has hit just .225 (58-for-258) with a weak .619 OPS against Kershaw during his career.  At home this season, Kershaw is 5-1 after giving up just 19 earned runs in 55 innings of work with a 66/8 strikeout/walk ratio.  He is backed by a strong Los Angeles bullpen that has a 2.00 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home this year.  The Dodgers are 30-10 at home this season and they have won their last five home games by a combined score of 42-12.  We expect another blowout win tonight, so we’ll back the Dodgers on the run line in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play DODGERS (-1.5 runline).

Colorado will hit the road and begin a 3-game series in Los Angels against the Dodgers on Friday night.  The Rockies will send Kyle Freeland to the mound tonight.  My numbers project a poor outing for Freeland against Los Angeles’ lineup.  He projects to give up 2.8 earned runs with a poor 4.54 ERA in this game.  Freeland also projects to have a weak 6.5 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Dodgers in this game.  The lefty hasn't been at his best in night games this season.  Freeland has given up 15 earned runs on 36 hits in 33.2 innings of work while earning a poor 4.01 ERA and an ugly 1.60 WHIP in those outings.  The Los Angeles offense is in excellent current form; they’ve hit a solid .291 while averaging a whopping 8.1 runs during their past seven games, going a perfect 7-0 while outscoring their opponents 57-21 and winning by +5.1 runs per game.

Los Angeles will start Alex Wood who enters in excellent current form with a 1.93 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in his past three starts.  He projects to have another fantastic outing tonight against Colorado’s lineup based on my numbers.  Wood is slated to give up just 1.9 earned runs with a terrific 2.88 ERA and an excellent 1.01 WHIP in this game.  The lefty also projects to have a strong 10.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an incredible 4.5 strikeout/walk ratio against the Rockies tonight.  Colorado’s offense has hit just .239 (22-for-92) with a weak .667 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Wood during his career.  At home this season, Wood is a perfect 5-0 after giving up just 7 earned runs on 22 hits in 33.1 innings of work.  He is backed by a strong Los Angeles bullpen that has a 2.05 ERA and 0.98 WHIP at home this year.  The Dodgers are 29-10 at home this season and they have won their last three home games by a combined score of 30-8, and we expect more of the same tonight.  We’ll back the Dodgers on the run line in this game on Friday night.

10* Play DODGERS (-1.5 runline).

Los Angeles will conclude their 3-game series in New York against the Yankees on Thursday night.  The Angels will send Jesse Chavez to the mound tonight.  My numbers project a poor outing for Chavez against New York’s lineup.  He projects to give up 3.0 earned runs with a terrible 5.05 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in this game.  The righty comes into this game in terrible current form.  Over his last three starts, Chavez has given up 10 earned runs on 20 hits in 16.1 innings of work while earning a horrendous 5.51 ERA and an ugly 1.53 WHIP.  New York’s offense has hit a solid .339 (19-56) with a strong 1.002 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Chavez in his career.  The Yankees have scored 9 runs on their 19 hits against him.

New York will start Luis Severino who projects to have a fantastic outing against Los Angeles’ lineup based on my numbers.  Severino is slated to give up 2.5 earned runs with a solid 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a strong 8.4 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.1 strikeout/walk ratio against the Angels in this game.  Los Angeles’ offense has hit just .182 with a weak .523 OPS against Severino in his career.  Severino is in excellent current form.  Over his last three starts, he has given up just 7 earned runs on 12 hits in 20 innings of work.  We expect a blowout win by New York, so we’ll back the Yankees on the run line in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play YANKEES (-1.5 runline).

Cleveland returns to Golden State after salvaging Game 4 at home on Friday night.  The Cavaliers didn't just win that game; they won in a blowout.  Cleveland beat Golden State by 21 points (137-116), and the game wasn’t even that close.  The Cavaliers’ offense was on another level in Game 4 as they shot an incredible 52.9% (46-for-87) from the field and 53.3% (24-for-45) from three-point land.  Four of Cleveland’s five starters scored 109 of the 137 total points on 52.1% (38-for-73) shooting from the field, including 56.8% (21-for-37) shooting from three-point land.  Cleveland played complete team basketball in Game 4, and they shot way above their normal percentages from both the field and from three-point land.  In fact, in their first three games of this series, Cleveland shot just 29.8% (31-for-104) from three-point land.  Golden State’s defense has allowed just 32.6% shooting from three-point land in all games this season, versus opponents that average 36.0% shooting overall.  The Warriors allow just 31.2% shooting from three-point land at home, so Cleveland’s offense will regress sharply in Game 5 tonight.

Golden State is the best team in the NBA, and the next best team is a distant second.  The Warriors are simply on another level than Cleveland, and the results in Game 4 were an anomaly.  Golden State has eight home wins in the playoffs so far, and seven of those wins have come by 11 points or more, including 19 and 22 point wins over Cleveland in Games 1 and 2.  The Warriors’ average home win has come by a whopping +17.9 points per game in the playoffs.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 44-5 SU at home where they own an outstanding +16.2 point differential this season.  Golden State owns three wins over Cleveland on their home court this season; those wins have come by 19, 22, and 35 point margins.  The Cavaliers’ defense gives up 109 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land on the road.  Cleveland’s defense has no chance in slowing down the Warriors’ offense, and with the Cavaliers expected to regress sharply on offense, we expect a blowout tonight.  We’ll lay the points with Golden State in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

Golden State was in for a tough Game 3 as expected, and the Warriors were on the ropes late.  But they closed the game on an 11-0 run to win by 5 points (118-113).  The Warriors are now a perfect 15-0 SU and 11-4 ATS in the playoffs.  It’s clearly evident that Cleveland’s defense cannot stop Golden State’s offense.  The Warriors have scored 113 points or more in all three games of the Finals, and there’s nothing to suggest they won’t eclipse that total once again tonight, especially since they are in excellent current form.  Over their last five games, Golden State’s offense has averaged 122.4 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 40.6% shooting from three-point land at home.  That matches up perfectly against Cleveland’s defense which has given up 112.8 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field and 39.4% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Cleveland came with a sharp effort in Game 3, but the way they lost it over the final three minutes spells doom for tonight.  The Cavaliers handed Golden State that win, and it’s highly unlikely Cleveland will be able to overcome that defeat.  It’s a foregone conclusion that the Warriors will win this championship, and Golden State will remain focused tonight as they want to become the first perfect 16-0 SU playoff team ever, especially after blowing a 3-1 series lead last year in the Finals.  Cleveland is a dead team, and that was evident in their post-game interviews after Game 3 on Wednesday night.  Cleveland’s biggest culprit in this series has been their defense; their rotations have been downright embarrassing.  The Cavaliers know they can’t slow the Warriors down, so this game has a good chance of getting real ugly real quick.  Cleveland’s offense has also been stagnant, especially their second unit which hasn’t done a thing in this series.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday night.

9* Play WARRIORS (-).

San Diego lost 10-2 in Arizona last night, and we expect more of the same on Wednesday night.  The Padres have lost three consecutive games by a combined score of 23-4, so they are not in good current form.  San Diego will send Luis Perdomo to the mound tonight.  My numbers project a poor outing for Perdomo against Arizona’s lineup.  The righty projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a weak 4.61 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in this game.  Perdomo comes into this game in terrible current form.  Over his last three starts, Perdomo has given up 12 earned runs on 20 hits in 16 innings of work while earning a horrendous 6.75 ERA and an ugly 1.56 WHIP.  Arizona’s offense has hit a solid .329 (23-for-70) with a strong .930 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Perdomo during his career.  The Diamondbacks have scored 15 runs on their 23 hits against him.  Arizona has been much stronger versus right-handed pitchers this season, averaging 5.4 runs per nine innings with a .263 batting average, compared to just 3.8 runs and .231 versus LHP.

Arizona will start Zack Greinke who projects to have a fantastic outing against San Diego’s lineup based on my numbers.  Greinke is slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a solid 3.39 ERA and an excellent 1.09 WHIP in this game.  The righty also projects to have a strong 8.6 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an outstanding 5.1 strikeout/walk ratio against the Padres tonight.  San Diego’s offense has hit just .217 (30-for-138) with a weak .617 OPS against Greinke during his career.  Greinke is a perfect 5-0 at home where he has given up just 13 earned runs on 32 hits in 47 innings of work this season with a fantastic 2.49 ERA and 0.85 WHIP.  He is backed by a reliable Diamondbacks' bullpen that has converted 79% of their save attempts this season (15-for-19).  We expect a blowout win by Arizona, so we’ll back the Diamondbacks on the run line in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play DIAMONDBACKS (-1.5 runline).

Golden State is now 2-0 SU and ATS against Cleveland after winning the first two games of the NBA Finals in easy fashion.  The Warriors had little trouble in those games; they won Game 1 by 22 points (113-91) and Game 2 by 19 points (132-113).  Because of their last two blowout wins, tonight’s pointspread presents some excellent value in playing against Golden State.  In fact, prior to the series starting, some sports books had a look-ahead line of Cleveland -2 for Game 3.  The Cavaliers returned home in the same situation last year, down 0-2 in the series, and Cleveland was a -1.5 favorite in Game 3 which they won by 30 points (120-90).  The Warriors shot 51.7% (46-for-89) from the field and 41.9% (18-for-43) from three-point land in Game 2.  Six players scored double digits, and eleven players scored overall.  That was a complete team effort by Golden State, but off such a complete performance, and now on the road, we expect some regression by the Warriors in Game 3.

Cleveland has been terrible so far in this series, but the Cavaliers will be primed for a breakout performance on their home court tonight.  Cleveland’s offense was awful once again in Game 2 as they only shot 45% (45-for-100) from the field and 27.6% (8-for-29) from three-point land.  Overall, the Cavaliers have shot just 40.3% (75-for-186) from the field and 31.7% (19-for-60) from three-point land in the two games.  Cleveland’s offense will perform much better at home where they average 113 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 39.5% shooting from three-point land.  Cleveland qualifies in a solid 60% ATS bounce-back situation and they are primed to bring their best performance, so we’ll back the Cavaliers with the line value as a home underdog in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday night.

9* Play CAVALIERS (+).

Cleveland and Golden State will begin the NBA Finals on Thursday night.  The teams will meet for the third consecutive year; the Cavaliers won last year while the Warriors won in 2015.  The Cavaliers are 12-1 SU and 8-4-1 ATS in the playoffs so far.  The Warriors are a perfect 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS in the playoffs.  So both teams have been dominating, and they faced similar paths to the Finals.  Cleveland’s defense has been terrible all season, especially on the road.  And it’s been mediocre at best in the playoffs.  Overall, Cleveland gives up 108.4 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  The Cavaliers gave up 102 points or more in ten of their thirteen playoff games, and those games came against much lesser offenses than what they’ll face in this series.  Cleveland’s defense has no chance in slowing down the Warriors’ offense.

Golden State is the best team in the NBA, and the next best team is a distant second.  The Warriors are simply on another level than Cleveland, and that will show in this series, especially after Golden State blew a 3-1 series lead last year.  Golden State has six home wins in the playoffs so far, and five of those wins have come by 11 points or more.  Their average home win has come by a whopping 17 points per game in the playoffs.  Overall, Golden State is an incredible 42-5 SU at home where they own an outstanding +16.1 point differential this season.  Golden State beat Cleveland by 35 points (126-91) at home in the regular season, and the Warriors held a 14-point lead on the road at Cleveland.  Golden State was 2-0 SU/ATS in the first two home games in the NBA Finals last year, winning by 15 and 33 point margins.  We’ll lay the points with the Warriors in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday night.

9* Play WARRIORS (-).

Washington will conclude their 3-game series in San Francisco on Wednesday night.  The Nationals have won the first two games by a combined score of 9-3, and we expect another easy win tonight.  Washington will start Max Scherzer who has a excellent 2.77 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his ten starts this season, including a 2.60 ERA and 0.87 WHIP on the road.  He projects to have another fantastic outing against San Francisco’s lineup based on my numbers.  Scherzer is slated to give up just 2.0 earned runs with a terrific 2.76 ERA and an excellent 1.01 WHIP in this game.  The right-hander also projects to have a strong 10.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an outstanding 4.6 strikeout/walk ratio against the Giants tonight.  San Francisco’s offense has hit just .209 (14-for-67) with a weak .605 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Scherzer during his career.

San Francisco is just 3-7 during their past ten games, so they are not in good current form.  The Giants will send Matt Cain to the mound tonight who has a weak 4.45 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season.  The aging veteran has lost his power with only 36 strikeouts in 54.2 innings pitched.  My numbers project a poor outing for Cain against Washington’s lineup.  He projects to give up 2.6 earned runs with a weak 4.24 ERA in this game.  Cain comes into this game in poor current form.  Over his last three starts, the right-hander has given up 9 earned runs on 21 hits in 19 innings of work with only 9 strikeouts.  Washington’s offense owns a strong .826 OPS against Cain during his career.  The Nationals have scored 18 runs on their 36 hits against Cain with 18 of those 36 hits going for extra bases.  We expect a blowout win by Washington, so we’ll back the Nationals on the run line in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play NATIONALS (-1.5 runline).

Baltimore will conclude their 3-game series in Houston on Sunday afternoon.  The Orioles have lost the first two games of this series, and they’ve lost six consecutive games overall.  Baltimore will send Alec Asher to the mound today.  My numbers project a poor outing for the right-hander against Houston’s lineup.  Asher projects to give up 3.3 earned runs with a terrible 5.47 ERA and a weak 1.48 WHIP in this game.  He also projects to have a poor 5.4 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.0 strikeout/walk ratio against the Astros in this game.  Houston's offense has been much stronger versus right-handed pitchers at home this season, averaging 5.3 runs per nine-innings with a .271 batting average, compared to just 4.1 runs and .239 versus LHP.  Baltimore's bullpen has struggled on the road with a 5.18 ERA and 1.60 WHIP while blowing 4 of their 9 save attempts.

Houston will start Lance McCullers who is 5-1 this season with an excellent 2.43 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his ten starts.  He projects to have another strong outing against Baltimore’s lineup based on my numbers.  McCullers is slated to give up just 2.3 earned runs with a solid 3.51 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP today.  The right-hander also projects to have a strong 11.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an excellent 3.2 strikeout/walk ratio against the Orioles in this game.  Baltimore’s offense has hit just .091 (3-for-33) with a woeful .413 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against McCullers during his career.  He is backed by a solid Houston bullpen that has a 3.16 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home this year while converting 11 of their 14 save attempts.  We expect a blowout win by Houston, so we’ll back the Astros on the run line in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play ASTROS (-1.5 runline).

Texas lost 11-6 to Boston last night, and we expect another blowout win by the Red Sox on Wednesday night.  The Rangers will send Martin Perez to the mound tonight and he has struggled on the road this season with a 4.29 ERA and an awful 1.77 WHIP.  My numbers project another poor outing for Perez against Boston’s lineup.  The southpaw projects to give up 3.0 earned runs with a terrible 5.24 ERA and an ugly 1.68 WHIP in this game.  The Red Sox have hit a solid .294 (15-for-51) with a terrific .894 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Perez during his career, scoring 11 runs on those 15 hits.  Boston's offense has been much stronger at home this season versus left-handed pitchers, averaging 5.9 runs per nine-innings with a .285 batting average, compared to just 4.3 runs and .263 versus RHP.  The Texas bullpen has been horrible on the road this season going 1-5 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.82 WHIP while blowing 5 of their 9 save attempts.

Boston will start Chris Sale who has been fantastic this season with a 2.19 ERA and 0.79 WHIP, including a 1.95 ERA and 0.73 WHIP at home.  He projects to have another strong outing against the Texas lineup based on my numbers.  Sale is slated to give up just 2.2 earned runs with a 3.03 ERA and an outstanding 1.05 WHIP in this game.  The southpaw also projects to have a strong 11.8 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an incredible 6.0 strikeout/walk ratio against the Rangers in this game.  The Texas offense has hit just .113 (9-for-80) with a woeful .381 OPS against Sale during his career.  He is backed by a strong Boston bullpen that has a 2.66 ERA and 1.20 WHIP at home this season while converting 90% (9-for-10) of their save opportunities.  The Rangers' offense has been weaker versus left-handed pitchers this year, averaging just 4.2 runs per nine-innings with a .225 batting average, compared to 5.1 runs and .241 versus RHP.  We expect a blowout win by Boston, so we’ll back the Red Sox on the run line in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play RED SOX (-1.5 runline).

Cleveland continued on their playoffs rampage in Game 1 in Boston on Wednesday night.  The Cavaliers are now a perfect 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in the playoffs after beating the Celtics 117-104.  The game was never close as Cleveland dominated from the opening tip.  Cleveland’s offense was extremely efficient despite being off for nine days prior to Game 1.  The Cavaliers shot 48.1% (39-81) from the field and 35.5% (11-31) from three-point land.  Cleveland also hit 80% (28-35) from the free throw line.  In fact, Cleveland got an extremely favorable whistle as they made ten more free throws than the Celtics even attempted.  Three of Cleveland’s five starters scored 20 points or more after shooting a combined 63.8% (30-47) from the field, including 46.7% (7-15) from three-point land.  Off that surprising performance, we expect regression from Cleveland in Game 2, especially since they played so well off their extended layoff.

Boston was thoroughly embarrassed on their home court in Game 1.  But the Celtics were in a poor situational spot after playing a grueling 7-game series against Washington.  Off their poor performance, we expect a peak effort by Boston for the full 48 minutes tonight, especially since the Celtics are 35-14 SU at home.  Boston’s offense is averaging 110 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Celtics’ offense will face a Cleveland team that owns a -0.5 point differential on the road where they are giving up 109 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land.  This is a terrific spot for Boston, so we’ll take the points with the Celtics in Game 2 on Friday night.

10* Play CELTICS (+).

Washington was extremely fortunate to win Game 6 on their strong home court.  The Wizards overcame a deficit late in the fourth quarter to win on a made 3-pointer in the closing seconds of the game.  Washington will now hit the road for Game 7, and their home/road splits in the playoffs indicate tonight’s game will be very difficult for them to win.  The Wizards are 6-0 SU at home in the playoffs, but they are just 1-5 SU on the road in playoff games.  Washington's five road losses have all been by 10 points or more with their average loss coming by -14.4 points per game.  The Wizards have lost the three games in Boston by 12, 10 and 22 point margins, so we expect more of the same tonight.

Boston returns home off a tough road loss.  But off that poor late game performance, we expect a peak effort by Boston for the full 48 minutes tonight, especially since the Celtics are 34-13 SU at home this season.  Boston has won four straight home playoff games by double digits; wins by 11, 12, 10, and 22 point margins.  Boston’s offense is averaging 110 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Celtics had no trouble scoring on Washington’s defense in the three home playoff games (123, 129, and 123 points), so that should continue tonight.  Home court advantage in Game 7 provides a substantial edge in the NBA Playoffs with home teams going 101-26 SU (80%) all-time.  We’ll lay the points with Boston in Game 7 on Monday night.

10* Play CELTICS (-).

Boston bounced back strong as expected in Game 5 at home on Wednesday night.  The Celtics were off back-to-back losses in Washington, so their peak performance in the last game was quite predictable.  The Celtics scored 123 points en route to a 22-point blowout win over the Wizards.  Boston’s offense shot a fantastic 52.9% (46-for-87) from the field and 48.5% (16-for-33) from three-point land.  The Celtics also had four of their five starters score 18 points or more while ten players overall scored at least 3 points or more.  Off that performance, we expect regression from Boston tonight, especially since they’ll have to play this game on the road.

Washington returns home trailing 3-2 in this series, so we expect a peak performance by the Wizards tonight.  The Wizards are 35-11 SU at home, including a perfect 5-0 SU in the playoffs this season.  The home team is already a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in this series, and overall the home team is 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS) in all Wizards’ playoff games this year.  Washington’s two playoff home games against Boston resulted in 27 (116-89) and 19 (121-102) point wins, and we expect more of the same in Game 6.  Washington’s offense is averaging 110.7 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 39.7% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Wizards have had no trouble scoring on Boston’s defense in this series as they are averaging 113.6 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Washington in Game 6 on Friday night.

10* Play WIZARDS (-).

Washington won back-to-back home games after losing the first two games of this series in Boston.  The Wizards are now 5-0 SU at home in the playoffs, but they are just 1-4 SU on the road in playoff games.  Washington’s offense scored 121 points in Game 4; their highest point total over their previous seventeen games.  Washington shot a fantastic 52.4% (44-84) from the field and 42.9% (9-21) from three-point land.  The Wizards also hit 88.9% (24-27) from the free throw line.  Off that performance, we expect Washington’s offense to regress, especially since they’ve played much worse on the road in the playoffs.

Boston returns home off back-to-back losses with their last being a blown 12-point lead.  The Celtics also gave up an embarrassing 26-0 run to Washington in the third quarter which turned the game around.  Off that poor performance, we expect a peak effort by Boston tonight, especially since the Celtics are 33-13 SU at home, including three straight double digit wins by 11, 12, 10 points in the playoffs.  Boston’s offense is averaging 109.8 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Celtics had no trouble scoring on Washington’s defense in the first two games (123 and 129 points), so that will continue tonight on their strong home court.  We’ll lay the points with Boston in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play CELTICS (-).

Houston bounced back with a strong performance in Game 4 after losing back-to-back games versus San Antonio.  The Rockets dominated the Spurs from start to finish in Game 4 on Sunday night.  The Rockets won by 21 points (125-104) on their home court.  There was nothing phony about that blowout win, and the game was never really close.  However, Houston played to their max level, and they are unlikely to come anywhere close to repeating that performance tonight.  Houston scored 125 points on 52.6% (50-for-95) shooting from the field and 44.2% (19-for-43) shooting from three-point land.  The Rockets got a complete team effort as four of their five starters scored 10 points or more while eight different players scored at least 8 points or more.  Off that peak performance, we expect regression from Houston’s offense tonight, especially on the road against the #1 defense in the NBA.

San Antonio was thoroughly embarrassed in Game 4, and off that ugly loss, we expect a peak performance by the Spurs tonight.  The same situation occurred in Game 2 of this series last week and the Spurs won easily by 25 points.  San Antonio is 35-11 SU on their strong home court, so we are certain to get their best effort.  San Antonio’s offense was good in Game 4 as they shot 49.4% (44-for-89) from the field.  However, the Spurs were terrible from three-point land where they only shot 30.4% (7-for-23).  San Antonio’s free throw shooting was also bad; the Spurs went 50% (9-for-18) from the stripe.  San Antonio’s defense only gives up 97.5 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land at home, so expect a strong defensive performance tonight.  We’ll lay the points with San Antonio in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

10* Play SPURS (-).

Boston was in a terrible spot for Game 3 on Thursday, and their blowout loss wasn’t a surprise at all.  The Celtics lost 116-89 to the Wizards after having an awful offensive game.  Boston shot just 35.1% (27-for-77) from the field and 31.2% (10-for-32) from three-point land.  Boston’s best offensive player, Isaiah Thomas, scored just 13 points on 37.5% (3-for-8) shooting from the field, including 0-2 from three-point land, after he scored 53 points in Game 2.  Washington held a 22-point lead (39-17) after the first quarter as the Celtics looked out of sync and the game snowballed.  Despite the poor performance in Game 3, Boston’s offense has been in excellent current form.  Over their last five games, the Celtics have still averaged 110.8 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land, so they are likely to bounce back with a solid effort tonight.

Washington got back into this series with a dominating win on their home court in Game 3.  The Wizards got a complete team effort as all five starters scored 10 points or more while six players overall scored in double digits.  Washington’s five starters combined to shoot 44.4% (28-for-63) from the field, including 90.5% (19-for-21) from the free throw line.  Off that strong offensive performance, the Wizards’ offense figures to regress a bit tonight.  Washington’s defense is poor; the Wizards give up 107.5 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land.  That means Boston’s offense will bounce back strong, especially off their poor effort in Game 3.  We’ll back Boston plus the points in Game 4 on Sunday night.

10* Play CELTICS (+).

Cleveland has taken a 2-0 series lead over Toronto after back-to-back blowout wins on their home court.  The Cavaliers did the same thing in last year’s playoffs before losing Game 3 and Game 4 in Toronto.  There’s a very good chance that history can repeat itself this year.  Cleveland’s offense was outstanding in the first two games while scoring 241 total points on 50% (80-for-160) shooting from the field and 41.2% (32-for-67) shooting from three-point land.  Cleveland also made 77.8% (49-for-63) of their free throw attempts.  Off those back-to-back strong offensive performances, the Cavaliers’ offense figures to regress tonight, especially with this game being on the road.  Cleveland’s defense continues to be poor, and they’ve been bad on the road all season.  The Cavaliers give up 109.7 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land on the road.

Toronto returns home off back-to-back poor efforts in Cleveland.  The Raptors may also be without Kyle Lowry; he’s a game time decision because of an ankle injury.  Toronto actually played 22 games during the regular season without Lowry, so even if he sits out tonight, we expect a peak performance by Toronto in Game 3 on their strong home court.  The Raptors are 30-14 SU at home while Cleveland is just 22-21 SU on the road.  That points to a significant site advantage for Toronto, especially in a must-win game.  The Raptors own a +7.5 point differential on their home court while the Cavaliers own a -1.5 point differential on the road.  Toronto is averaging 110.3 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 39.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Raptors’ defense only gives up 45.3% shooting from the field and 35.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll back Toronto plus the points in Game 3 on Friday night.

9* Play RAPTORS (+).

Boston has now won six consecutive games since losing the first two games of their previous series against the Chicago Bulls.  The Celtics appeared to max out in their win over Washington in Game 1 when they scored 123 points; their highest point total over their previous sixteen games.  Boston shot a fantastic 51.1% (46-for-90) from the field and 48.7% (19-for-39) from three-point land.  The Celtics also hit 80% (12-for-15) from the free throw line.  Off that performance, Boston somehow responded by scoring 129 points on 51.1% (45-for-88) shooting from the field in Game 2.  However, the Celtics rallied from 14 points down to win Game 2 in overtime, and off that draining performance, we expect regression on the road tonight in Game 3.

Washington had total control of Game 2 on Tuesday night, but the Wizards imploded down the stretch.  Off that collapse, and returning home down 0-2 in this series, we expect a peak performance by Washington tonight.  The Wizards have a strong home court where they are 33-11 SU this season, including a perfect 3-0 SU in the playoffs so far.  Washington’s offense is averaging 110.3 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Wizards have had no trouble scoring on Boston’s defense in the first two games (111 and 119 points), so that will continue tonight on Washington's strong home court.  We’ll lay the points with Washington in Game 3 on Thursday night.

9* Play WIZARDS (-).

Houston dominated San Antonio from start to finish in Game 1 on Monday night.  The Rockets beat the Spurs by 27 points (126-99) on San Antonio’s strong home court.  There was nothing phony about that blowout win, and the game was never close.  However, Houston played to their max level, and they are unlikely to repeat that performance tonight.  Houston scored 126 points which was their highest point total over their last eight games.  The Rockets shot 46% (40-for-87) from the field and 44% (22-for-50) from three-point land.  Houston also hit 88.9% (24-for-27) from the free throw line.  The Rockets got a complete team effort as four of their five starters scored 14 points or more while eight guys scored at least 7 points or more.  Off that peak performance, we expect major regression from Houston’s offense tonight, especially against the #1 defense in the NBA.

San Antonio was thoroughly embarrassed at home in Game 1, and off that ugly loss, we expect a peak performance by the Spurs tonight.  San Antonio is 34-11 SU on their strong home court, so we are certain to get their best effort this evening.  San Antonio’s offense was atrocious in Game 1 as they only shot 36.9% (31-for-84) from the field and 31% (9-for-29) from three-point land.  Three of their five starters scored 8 points or less, and overall, San Antonio’s starters only scored 48 total points on a combined 31% (13-for-42) shooting from the field, including 33.3% (6-for-18) shooting from three-point land.  San Antonio’s offense averages 105.6 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land at home, so expect a strong offensive performance tonight.  We’ll lay the points with San Antonio in Game 2 on Wednesday night.

10* Play SPURS (-).

Toronto continued their baffling streak in Game 1 of a playoff series; the Raptors are now just 1-12 SU all-time in the opening game after losing 116-105 to Cleveland on Monday night.  If history repeats itself, we expect a strong bounce back effort from the Raptors in Game 2 tonight.  Toronto lost by 14 points to Milwaukee in Game 1 of the last round, and then they won Game 2 106-100.  Toronto is now just 1-4 SU in five meetings versus Cleveland this season, but the Raptors only lost those games by an average of 4.4 points per game.  Toronto’s defense has also done a good job while holding the Cavaliers to just 106 points per game in those five games.  The Raptors come into this game in excellent defensive form as they’ve allowed just 95.6 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field over their last five games. 

Cleveland finally had a breakout game on Monday night.  The Cavaliers slogged their way thru the four games against Indiana before getting a complete team effort in Game 1 against Toronto.  The Cavaliers shot 45.9% from the field (39-85) and 41.2% (14-34) from three-point land.  Cleveland also made 82.8% (24-29) of their free throw attempts.  The Cavaliers had four of their five starters score 11 points or more while nine players overall scored 4 points or more.  Cleveland’s defense was not good once again, and over their last five games, the Cavaliers have given up 108 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 39% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a much closer Game 2 tonight, so we’ll take Toronto plus the points.

9* Play RAPTORS (+).

Washington was not in a good spot for Game 1, and the Wizards got blown out by the Celtics.  Boston won by 12 points (123-111), and that was after Washington led by 14 points (38-24) after the first quarter.  Over the final three quarters of the game, the Wizards got out-scored 99-73 by the Celtics.  Washington’s offense actually played a very good game as they shot 50.6% (44-87) from the field and 43.5% (10-23) from three-point land.  The Wizards were atrocious from the free throw line though as they only shot 59.1% (13-22) from the stripe.  So despite the poor spot and the poor free throw shooting, there were positive signs for Washington in Game 1.  And those signs point to a strong bounce performance in Game 2.

Boston has now won five consecutive games since losing the first two games of their series against the Chicago Bulls.  However, the Celtics maxed out in their win over Washington in Game 1.  Boston scored 123 points which was their highest point total over their last sixteen games.  The Celtics shot a fantastic 51.1% (46-90) from the field and 48.7% (19-39) from three-point land.  Boston also hit 80% (12-15) from the free throw line.  The Celtics got a complete team effort as four of their five starters scored 18 points or more while eight guys scored at least 4 points or more.  Off that peak performance, we expect major regression from Boston’s offense tonight.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Washington plus the points in Game 2 on Tuesday night.

9* Play WIZARDS (+).

Toronto started their series with Milwaukee by playing sluggish basketball, but once the Raptors got into their rhythm, they took control.  Toronto will play Game 1 in Cleveland on three days rest, so they are still on a normal season schedule.  That’s the exact opposite of the Cavaliers who will come into this game on a full 7 days of rest.  The scheduling edge definitely goes to Toronto because basketball is a routine and rhythm game.  Toronto also matches-up extremely well versus Cleveland.  Despite going just 1-3 SU in the four regular season meetings, the Raptors only lost those games by 3, 4, and 4 points.  Toronto’s defense did a good job while holding the Cavaliers to just 103.5 points per game.  The Raptors come into this game in excellent defensive form as they’ve allowed just 92.4 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field over their last five games.

Cleveland did not look all that great in their series against Indiana.  Despite a 4-game sweep of the Pacers, Cleveland only had a +16 point differential in the four games which was the lowest margin of a series sweep over the last twenty years.  They are also the first team in the past 22 years to allow 100+ points in every game while still sweeping a series.  Those are telling statistics, especially since the Pacers were arguably the worst team to make the playoffs.  Cleveland is taking a major step-up in class against Toronto, and they are not in a good spot to handle a very good team tonight.  The Cavaliers have played mediocre basketball as of late as well.  Cleveland owns a +.02 point differential over their last five games, and those games were against bad opposition.  The Cavaliers have given up 106.6 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Toronto plus the points in Game 1 on Monday night.

9* Play RAPTORS (+).

Utah was on the verge of advancing, and they couldn’t have asked for anything more than hosting Los Angeles in Game 6.  The Jazz came up empty though, and the Clippers cruised to an easy win; much easier than the 98-93 final score indicates.  Utah has to slow this game way down to win, but we don't see that happening on the Clippers home court.  Even when the Jazz were able to control the pace, they were unable to separate from the Clippers.  The Jazz only won Game 4 by 7 points (105-98) at home, and they only won Game 5 by 4 points (96-92).  Today’s posted pointspread is clearly too low simply based on the previous results.  Los Angeles was a 5.5-point home favorite in Game 1, but now they are laying 2 points less in Game 7.  While it’s true that Blake Griffin is not playing, Utah’s Rudy Gobert injured his ankle in Game 6, and he will not be at full strength in this game.

Los Angeles played a terrific game on Friday night in Utah.  The Clippers got a complete team effort as five players scored 12 points or more while nine players overall scored at least 2 points.  Los Angeles scored 98 points after shooting 49.3% (37-75) from the field and 42.9% (9-21) from three-point land.  The Clippers’ offense has yet to really breakout, but if they can force the pace today, there’s a very good chance they’ll win this game quite easily.  Los Angeles is a team that needs to play fast to be at their best, so we fully expect the Clippers to make a concerted effort to speed things way up.  We’ll lay the points with Los Angeles in Game 7 on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Los Angeles is on the brink of elimination as they head to Utah for Game 6 on Friday night.  The Clippers were up 2-1 in this series, but they’ve lost the last two games thanks in part to their offense failing to play up to their normal level.  Los Angeles has only scored a total of 190 points in their last two games after shooting a combined 43.1% (62-for-144) from the field and 38.2% (21-for-55) from three-point land.  The Clippers really need to force the pace tonight because taking just 69 shots like they did on their home court in Game 5 is not going to win them many games.  Los Angeles is a team that needs to play fast to be at their best, and off back-to-back slow-paced games, we fully expect the Clippers to make a concerted effort to speed tonight’s game way up.

Utah was fantastic in dictating the game flow against Los Angeles in the past two games.  And because of that, the Jazz are on the verge of advancing.  However, Utah isn’t that much better of a team than Los Angeles, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll be able to control the pace for a third consecutive game.  Despite being in control, Utah was unable to separate from the Clippers.  The Jazz only won Game 4 by 7 points (105-98) at home, and they only won Game 5 by 4 points (96-92).  Utah doesn’t have enough offense to extend margins, and tonight’s posted pointspread is clearly inflated based on the recent results.  Los Angeles was a 1.5-point road favorite in Game 3, and then just a 5-point underdog in Game 4 after Blake Griffin got hurt in Game 3.  There is now value on the Clippers in a solid bounce-back spot while getting more points than in the previous games.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Los Angeles plus the points in Game 6 on Friday night.

10* Play CLIPPERS (+).

Toronto and Milwaukee alternated wins and losses during the first four games of this series.  But the Raptors have now won back-to-back games to take a 3-2 series lead.  Toronto played their best game of the series on Monday night when they beat Milwaukee by 25 points (118-93).  The Raptors scored the most points they have over their last thirteen games.  Toronto shot a terrific 57.7% (41-for-71) from the field, 44.4% (12-for-27) from three-point land, and 92.3% (24-for-26) from the free throw line.  Toronto had all five starters score 12 points or more while the second unit contributed 28 points on 47.6% (10-for-21) shooting from the field.  The Raptors got a complete team effort at home in Game 5, but we expect regression tonight, especially on the road.  Point guard Kyle Lowry is expected to play tonight, but he is dealing with stiffness in his back.  Lowry leads in the team in assists (7.0 apg) and steals (1.5 spg) and is second in scoring (22.4 ppg) while shooting 41% from three-point range.

Milwaukee returns home off an embarrassing loss, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Bucks were 2.5-point home favorites in Game 4 which they lost, but now they are laying nearly a basket less in a stronger bounce-back situation.  Milwaukee’s offense is primed to have a breakout game after back-to-back poor efforts.  The Bucks were terrific in Game 3 on their home court when they shot 52.7% (39-for-74) from the field and 52.2% (12-for-23) from three-point land.  Overall, Milwaukee’s offense averages 105.3 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field at home, so there is a very good chance they will match their strong production from Game 3 tonight.  We’ll back Milwaukee at home in Game 6 on Thursday night.       

10* Play BUCKS.

Chicago won the first two games of this series in Boston, but the Bulls were terrible in their two home games.  Chicago lost Game 3 by 17 points (104-87), and they lost Game 4 by 9 points (104-95).  The Bulls looked to be in control of this series, but unfortunately for them, they lost point guard Rajon Rondo to a thumb injury.  His absence was clearly evident in the Bulls last two games, but with this being their third game without him, we expect a much better team effort from Chicago tonight.  Chicago’s offense was awful in their last two games as they only scored a total of 182 points on 40.6% (65-for-160) shooting from the field and 24.4% (11-for-45) shooting from three-point land.  Prior to those two games, the Bulls had scored 106 points or more in six consecutive games, and in seven of their previous eight games overall.

Boston slogged thru the first two games at home in this series before snapping out of their funk and winning comfortably in Chicago.  Now many may think the Celtics will continue their domination with a return home, but we expect some regression from Boston tonight.  The Celtics’ offense scored 104 points in each game while shooting a combined 47% (79-for-168) from the field and 36.5% (27-for-74) from three-point land.  Now Boston is in a negative situational spot while laying too many points into a desperate Chicago team that is primed to play much better basketball.  The road team is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS in this playoff series.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Chicago plus the points in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

10* Play BULLS (+).

Atlanta started down 0-2 in this series against Washington, but the Hawks got back on track by winning two games on their home court.  The home team is now 4-0 SU/ATS in this playoff series and 7-1 SU in all meetings this season.  It is not a surprise since both squads have exhibited strong home/road dichotomies over the years.  Atlanta will now head back to Washington for this pivotal Game 5, and we expect the Hawks to regress off their last two games.  In their two games at home, the Hawks scored a total of 227 points on 46.9% (84-for-179) shooting from the field and 37.5% (21-for-56) shooting from three-point land.  Compare those numbers to the ones they put up in Washington in the first two games, and you can see a difference.  In the first two games, the Hawks scored a total of 208 points on 42.0% (66-for-157) shooting from the field and 24.4% (11-for-45) shooting from three-point land.  Atlanta will revert back to their two performances in Washington, and that makes them quite vulnerable in Game 5.

Washington returns home off back-to-back losses, and since they are 32-11 SU on their strong home court, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Wizards played two poor games away, and it was just the tenth time this season that they lost two consecutive games.  In the nine games following after back-to-back losses, Washington went 6-3 SU with their average win coming by +8.3 points per game.  The Wizards’ offense averaged 112.7 points per game in those six wins.  Overall, Washington is averaging 110.5 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 40.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with Washington in Game 5 on Wednesday night.       

9* Play WIZARDS (-).

Memphis started 0-2 in this series against San Antonio, and the Grizzlies looked well on their way to getting swept.  But they completely reversed their play at home, and Memphis won both games to tie the series up at 2 games apiece.  Memphis will head back to San Antonio for this pivotal Game 5, and we expect the Grizzlies to regress sharply off their last two games.  In their two games at home, the Grizzlies scored a total of 215 points on 48.4% (77-for-159) shooting from the field, 42.9% (21-for-49) shooting from three-point land, and 90.9% (40-for-44) shooting from the free throw line.  Compare those numbers to the ones they put up in San Antonio in the first two games, and you can see a major difference.  In the first two games, the Grizzlies scored a total of just 164 points on 38.5% (62-for-161) shooting from the field, 29.8% (14-for-47) shooting from three-point land, and 81.3% (26-for-32) shooting from the free throw line.

San Antonio returns home off back-to-back losses, and since they are 33-10 SU on their home court, we expect a peak bounce-back performance tonight.  The Spurs played two poor games, and it was just the fifth time this season that they lost two consecutive games.  In the other four games after losing back-to-back games, San Antonio went 3-1 SU with their three wins coming by 10, 14, and 16 points this season.  The Spurs held those opponents to an average of just 94 points per game, so we expect San Antonio’s #1 defense to stymie Memphis’ mediocre offense tonight.  Overall, the Spurs’ defense is only giving up 96.7 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field and 33.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  San Antonio’s offense will also bounce back strong since they average 105.5 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with San Antonio in Game 5 on Tuesday night.       

10* Play SPURS (-).

Los Angeles is quite fortunate to be up 2-1 over Utah in this series.  The Clippers lost Game 1 at home, and despite playing a shorthanded Jazz team in Game 2, Los Angeles could only win by 8 points (99-91).  In Game 3 in Utah on Friday night, the Clippers got blitzed in the first quarter (34-21), and they lost Blake Griffin to an injury in the second quarter.  Despite that, the Clippers somehow came back and beat the Jazz 111-106.  Chris Paul took over as he scored 34 points on 54.5% (12-22) shooting from the field.  Overall, the Clippers shot 54.7% (41-77) from the field, and they got to the free throw line 33 times on Utah’s home court.  The Clippers are at their best in fast-paced games, and for some reason, Utah was willing to run with them in Game 3.  That’s not how Utah is going to beat Los Angeles, so we expect them to revert back to their slow-paced style of Game 1 which they won 97-95.  Los Angeles is just 7-15 SU this season when held to less than 100 points.

Utah went 51-31 during the regular season; the same record of the Clippers.  These teams are just about equal across the board, and off a home loss, we expect a strong bounce back performance by the Jazz tonight.  Utah is 29-13 SU at home, and they play a perfect half-court style of basketball that is conducive to NBA post-season success.  But they got away from that in Game 3, and it cost them a win.  Utah’s defense only gives up 95.2 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 36.6% shooting from three-point land at home.  Their defense is tremendous by efficiency metrics as they only give up 102.7 points per 100 possessions which ranks them third overall in the NBA.  Utah’s offense is in good current form as they’ve shot 48.1% from the field and 39.6% from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with Utah in Game 4 on Sunday night.       

10* Play JAZZ (-).

Golden State slogged thru the first three quarters in Game 1, and the game was tied heading into the fourth quarter.  The Warriors decided to flip the switch over the final 12 minutes en route to their 121-109 win.  Golden State then played Game 2 without Kevin Durant (calf), and they waxed Portland by 29 points (110-81).  Golden State’s offense wasn't all that good in Game 2, so their margin of victory is quite misleading, making tonight’s posted spread a bit inflated.  The Warriors only shot 44% (40-for-91) from the field and 31.2% (10-for-32) from three-point land.  Now they are laying points on the road against a desperate team that plays much better basketball on their home court, and that makes Golden State a vulnerable team in Game 3.

Portland gave all they had in Game 1, so the fact they got blown out in Game 2 wasn’t a shock.  Off that embarrassingly poor effort, and with a return home, we expect the Trail Blazers to come with a peak performance tonight and they qualify in a solid 62% ATS bounce-back situation.  Portland went just 16-27 SU on the road during the regular season, but they were 25-16 SU at home.  In their last game against Golden State on this court, the Trail Blazers only lost by 2 points (113-111), so they know they can play with the Warriors.  Portland was also the best team in the NBA in terms of net efficiency over the second half of the season; the Trail Blazers were +7.8 points per 100 possession.  At home, Portland’s offense averages 109.9 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Portland plus the points in Game 3 on Saturday night.

10* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Cleveland has a 2-0 series lead heading into Game 3 in Indiana on Thursday night.  The Cavaliers won both games by a combined 7 points, and that’s not a good sign, especially since Cleveland played much better basketball at home than on the road this season.  In fact, the Cavaliers were +10.6 points per 100 possessions at home while they were -2.4 points per 100 possessions on the road this season.  Cleveland’s offense was excellent in the first two games of this series as they shot a combined 54.5% (84-154) from the field and 40.7% (24-59) from three-point land.  Cleveland put those numbers up on their home court where they’ve been a much better team, but they couldn’t beat Indiana by more than 6 points.  Now they are laying points on the road where their offense will not match the efficient production of the first two games, and that makes them a vulnerable team in Game 3.

Indiana has been a much better team at home than on the road this season.  In fact, Indiana went 29-12 SU at home during the regular season while being +10.6 points per 100 possessions.  On the road, the Pacers went just 13-28 SU in the regular season while being -5.4 points per 100 possessions.  Indiana had no business of staying close in the two games in Cleveland, but the Pacers did, and that’s a very good sign for tonight’s game on their strong home court.  Overall, Indiana averages 106.9 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  Cleveland owns a -1.9 point differential on the road where their defense gives up 109.8 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll back Indiana in Game 3 on Thursday night.

9* Play PACERS (+).

Oklahoma City hung tough for the first half in Game 1 in Houston on Sunday night.  The Thunder trailed 59-54 at the half before imploding over the final 24 minutes of the game.  Oklahoma City was atrocious in the second half while getting out-scored 59-33 by the Rockets.  Russell Westbrook was terrible as he only scored 22 points on 26.1% (6-23) shooting from the field, including 27.3% (3-11) shooting from three-point land.  Overall, the Thunder scored just 87 total points after shooting a woeful 37% (30-81) from the field and just 31% (9-29) from three-point land.  Oklahoma City’s starting five was atrocious as they combined to score just 57 total points.  The 87 points scored by Oklahoma City was their fourth lowest scoring output of the season.  In the three games following their lowest point totals, Oklahoma City’s offense averaged 110.7 points per game with Westbrook recording a triple-double in two of those three games; the Thunder went 33-9 SU this season when Westbrook recorded a triple-double.  Oklahoma City’s offense scored a lot of easy baskets this season as they averaged a league-best 49.9 points per game inside the paint.  The Thunder scored a total of 206 points inside the paint against Houston this season, but in Game 1, the Rockets somehow out-scored Oklahoma City 62-38 inside the paint.  

Houston closed the regular season by going 5-5 SU over their last ten games, so their complete team effort in Game 1 sets them up to regress sharply tonight.  The Rockets played five playoff teams during that stretch, and they went just 1-4 SU in those games, so that’s also a sign that they will fail to match their production from Game 1.  Houston scored 118 points in Game 1 after five players had 11 points or more, including two players off the bench.  Overall, the Rockets’ offense shot 49.5% (45-91) from the field.  The bench shot a terrific 45.2% (14-31) from the field with Nene scoring 15 points on an incredible 87.5% (7-8) shooting from the field.  Houston’s bench will not repeat that production, especially Nene who only averages about 17 minutes per game.  Oklahoma City out-scored their opponents by 2.8 points per 100 possessions in the first and fourth quarters this season, so the complete collapse over the final 12 minutes was an anomaly.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Oklahoma City in Game 2 on Wednesday night.       

10* Play THUNDER (+).

Milwaukee was one of three teams in the Eastern Conference to make the playoffs despite having a negative point differential on the season.  The Bucks beat the Raptors 97-83 in Game 1 on Saturday night.  Milwaukee did not play nearly as well as their 14-point win would indicate.  The Bucks shot just 44.7% (38-85) from the field and 39.1% (9-23) from three-point land.  Milwaukee has had little success this season when scoring less than 100 points in a game.  In fact, the Bucks are just 9-23 SU when held to less than 100 points this season.  So winning Game 1 while only scoring 97 points was a fortunate outcome for Milwaukee.  But they won’t be so fortunate tonight, especially if Toronto’s defense holds them to less than 100 points just like they have in four of five meetings this season.

Toronto has a history of underperforming in Game 1’s of the playoffs.  Under head coach Dwane Casey, the Raptors are now 0-6 SU in those games.  Last season, Toronto lost Game 1 on their home court in their first two playoff series, but they bounced back strong and won both Game 2’s after holding their opponents to just 87 and 92 points.  That trend will continue tonight, especially since Toronto’s defense has given up just 94.6 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Toronto’s offense was horrendous in Game 1 while shooting just 36% (27-75) shooting from the field and 21.7% (5-23) shooting from three-point land.  The Raptors’ offense will bounce back strong, so we’ll lay the points with Toronto in Game 2 on Tuesday night.

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

Indiana was one of three teams in the Eastern Conference to make the playoffs despite having a negative point differential on the season.  The Pacers were also a much better team at home than they were on the road this season.  In fact, Indiana went 29-12 SU at home while being +10.6 points per 100 possessions.  On the road, the Pacers went 13-28 SU while being -5.4 points per 100 possessions.  Indiana also has the third worst bench in the NBA based on efficiency metrics, and their bench ranks dead last of any team in the playoffs.  The Pacers were also terrible in the fourth quarter this season while ranking third worst in the league with a -4.5 net point differential based on 100 possessions.  Indiana reversed their seasonal long tendencies in their 109-108 loss in Game 1 on Saturday afternoon.  The Pacers’ bench out-scored Cleveland’s bench 34-23, and Indiana won the fourth quarter 24-17.  Over the first three quarters, the Pacers were out-scored 92-84, so their anomaly of the final 12 minutes made the game closer than it actually was.  Indiana will revert back to their seasonal tendencies tonight, and they’ll be non-competitive.

Cleveland was also a much better home team this season.  The Cavaliers went 32-10 SU at home while being +10.6 points per 100 possessions.  Cleveland played a good Game 1 while shooting 53.8% (42-for-78) from the field.  However, the Cavaliers can play much better basketball, and if they improve their three-point shooting and free throw shooting, tonight’s game will be a blowout.  Cleveland missed 17 three’s, and most of those were wide open looks.  The Cavaliers also hit just 51.9% (14-for-27) from the free throw line.  That’s a terrible percentage considering Cleveland averaged 74.5% from the stripe this season.  Overall, Cleveland’s offense averaged 112.6 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  Indiana owns a poor defense that gave up 108.2 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field on the road this season.  We’ll lay the points with Cleveland in this game on Monday night.

9* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Oklahoma City went 47-35 SU during the regular season.  There is no question the Thunder were carried by Russell Westbrook’s amazing season in which he averaged a triple-double; a feat that was last done 55 years ago by Oscar Robertson.  Oklahoma City went 33-9 SU when Westbrook recorded a triple-double, and most of those came in fast-paced games against poor defensive teams.  That’s exactly the type of opponent the Thunder will face in this series, so expect Westbrook to put-up some big numbers.  Oklahoma City’s offense scored a lot of easy baskets this season as they averaged a league-best 49.9 points per game inside the paint.  The Thunder scored a total of 206 points inside the paint in their four meetings against Houston this season.  While the Thunder went just 1-3 SU in those games, their three losses only came by an average of -5.7 points per game.

Houston closed the regular season by going 5-5 SU during their final ten games.  The Rockets played five playoff teams during that stretch, and they went just 1-4 SU in those games.  That’s not a good sign for Houston coming into the playoffs, especially since the Rockets struggled to win by a margin against Oklahoma City this season.  The Rockets know no other way than to play at the fastest pace possible.  But that’s not the right style against Oklahoma City’s profile.  The Thunder out-scored their opponents by +2.8 points per 100 possessions in the first and fourth quarters this season.  Houston wins games by jumping out early, and wearing their opponents down late.  But that’s not going to happen to the Thunder who start fast and close games late.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Oklahoma City on Sunday night.       

10* Play THUNDER (+).

Utah played exceptional basketball this season.  The Jazz went 51-31 SU during the regular season; the same record as the Clippers.  Utah plays a perfect half-court style of basketball that is conducive to NBA post-season success.  Utah’s defense only gives up 96.8 points per game on 44.3% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense is tremendous by efficiency metrics as they only give up 102.7 points per 100 possessions which ranks them third overall in the NBA.  Utah’s offense closed the regular season in terrific form as the Jazz averaged 103.6 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 43.8% shooting from three-point land during their last five games.

Los Angeles was certainly one of the hottest teams in the NBA down the stretch; the Clippers won eleven of their last thirteen games.  However, the Clippers played an extremely easy schedule during that span, and in fact, only five games were against playoff teams.  Los Angeles was also fortunate to face a slew of teams that like to play fast, up-tempo basketball.  The Clippers are at their best in those fast-paced games, but against Utah, it’s highly unlikely the Jazz will be willing to run.  Utah has the ability to control the pace, and their defense is strong enough to stymie the Clippers in the half court.  Overall, Los Angeles went just 6-14 SU this season when held to less than 100 points.  Not only that, but the Clippers also own a poor defense that gives up 104.4 points per game on 45.2% shooting from the field.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Utah on Saturday night.

9* Play JAZZ (+).

Tampa Bay beat Boston 10-5 last night, but we expect a much different outcome on Saturday afternoon.  The Rays will send Jake Odorizzi to the mound today.  My numbers project a poor outing for Odorizzi against Boston’s lineup.  The right-hander projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a terrible 5.11 ERA and an ugly 1.53 WHIP in this game.  The Red Sox have hit a solid .308 (41-for-133) with an incredible .937 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Odorizzi during his career.  21 of their 41 hits against Odorizzi have gone for extra bases, while scoring 22 runs on those 41 hits.  Tampa Bay's bullpen has been horrible in the past four games with a 11.58 ERA and 2.68 WHIP.

Boston will start Chris Sale who projects to have a fantastic outing against Tampa Bay’s lineup based on my numbers.  Sale is slated to give up just 2.6 earned runs with a solid 3.43 ERA and an outstanding 1.13 WHIP in this game.  The southpaw also projects to have a strong 10.8 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an incredible 6.4 strikeout/walk ratio against the Rays in this game.  Tampa Bay’s offense has hit just .127 (9-for-71) with a woeful .325 OPS against Sale during his career.  Boston's bullpen has been strong this season with a 2.36 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  We expect a blowout win by Boston, so we’ll back the Red Sox on the run line in this game on Saturday afternoon.

10* Play RED SOX (-1.5 runline).

Arizona will continue their road trip as they begin a 4-game series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Friday night.  The Diamondbacks will send Zack Greinke to the mound tonight.  My numbers project a poor outing for Greinke against Los Angeles’ lineup.  The right-hander projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a poor 4.08 ERA in this game.  The Dodgers have hit a respectable .273 (24-for-88) with an incredible .951 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Greinke during his career.  Sixteen of their twenty-four hits against Greinke have gone for extra bases; Los Angeles has scored 14 runs on those 24 hits as well.  The Diamondbacks' bullpen enters this game in terrible current form with a 7.87 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in their past three games this week.

Los Angeles will start Clayton Kershaw who is set for a strong bounce-back effort tonight after a loss last week which took place in the thin air and altitude of Coor's Field.  Kershaw is now back home where he had an excellent 1.29 ERA and 0.29 WHIP in his one home start this season.  My numbers project a fantastic outing for Kershaw against Arizona’s lineup as he is slated to give up just 1.8 earned runs with a terrific 2.49 ERA and an outstanding 0.93 WHIP in this game.  The southpaw also projects to have a strong 9.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an incredible 6.6 strikeout/walk ratio against the Diamondbacks in this game.  Arizona’s offense has hit just .235 (32-for-136) against Kershaw during his career.  The Dodgers' bullpen has been excellent this season with a 1.34 ERA and 0.86 WHIP.  We expect a blowout win by Los Angeles, so we’ll back the Dodgers on the run line in this game on Friday night.

10* Play DODGERS (-1.5 runline).

Cleveland played a 4-game stretch of unbelievable basketball, and it was only a matter of time before they threw in a clunker.  The Cavaliers scored 122, 135, 122, and 114 in four consecutive wins over the 76ers, Pacers, Magic, and Celtics.  Putting up those numbers was unsustainable, and the Cavaliers got embarrassed at home by Atlanta on Friday night.  The Hawks beat the Cavaliers 114-100 despite playing that game with their backups.  But we’re willing to draw a line thru that ugly loss because Cleveland was overdue for a terrible effort.  Off that defeat, we expect Cleveland to bounce back strong, especially with this being quick, turnaround revenge against Atlanta.  The Cavaliers are only half a game up on Boston for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference, so that will ensure a good effort in this game.

Atlanta is dealing with some injuries which has caused them to shuffle their rotation.  The Hawks are without Thabo Sefolosha (groin), and Dennis Schroder (foot) missed the last game; he’s questionable for today’s game.  Kent Bazemore (knee) and Paul Millsap (knee) also missed the last game; both are questionable for this game.  The Hawks cannot improve their playoff positioning, but there’s a chance they could slide down a spot or two.  However, that’s a slim possibility with their remaining schedule after this game, so Atlanta may be extra cautious with their star players in this game.  We’ll back Cleveland in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CAVALIERS (-).

Chicago will start Kyle Hendricks who projects to have a fantastic outing against Milwaukee’s lineup based on my numbers.  Hendricks is slated to give up just 2.7 earned runs with a solid 3.76 ERA and a fantastic 1.20 WHIP in this game.  Hendricks also projects to have a strong 9.5 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 3.6 strikeout/walk ratio against the Brewers tonight.  The right-hander is backed by a solid Chicago bullpen that has a 2.51 ERA and 1.19 WHIP this season.  Milwaukee’s offense is in poor current form as they’ve scored just 3 total runs in their past two games; they scored 16 total runs in their previous three games.

Milwaukee will send Tommy Milone to the mound tonight.  My numbers project a poor outing for the southpaw against Chicago’s lineup.  Milone projects to give up 3.1 earned runs with a weak 4.69 ERA in this game.  The Cubs have hit .368 with an incredible .874 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) in a limited 19 at-bats against Milone during his career.  We expect a blowout win by Chicago, so we’ll back the Cubs on the run line in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play CUBS (-1.5 run line).

Washington hits the road again after beating Charlotte 118-111 at home on Tuesday night.  The Wizards just played a 5-game road trip where they went just 2-3 SU after beginning the trip with back-to-back wins.  Washington has a short trip to New York tonight, and since they’ve lost their last three road games, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Wizards’ offense is in good current form as they’ve averaged 112.8 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Washington’s offense has also been good on the road where they are averaging 108.2 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field.  Washington will now face a New York defense that gives up 106.2 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field at home.

New York has alternated wins and losses over their last six games.  The Knicks come into tonight’s game off a 100-91 home win as a 4.5-point underdog against the Bulls on Tuesday night.  New York won that game despite shooting just 26.1% (6-for-23) from three-point land; that’s not a good sign for tonight.  The Knicks’ offense scored 100 points or more for just the second time over their last seven games.  New York has clearly struggled without Derrick Rose (knee) and Kristaps Porzingis (back) on the court.  Rose is out for the season while Porzingis is listed as questionable for tonight’s game.  Over their last five games, the Knicks are only averaging 97.8 points per game on 44.8% shooting from the field and 28.2% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Washington in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play WIZARDS (-).

Cleveland has won three consecutive games, including last night’s 122-102 comeback win over Orlando.  The Magic led at the half, but the Cavaliers out-scored Orlando 43-20 in the third quarter to take control of that game.  Cleveland will now hit the road for tonight’s game in Boston.  This is a terrible situational and scheduling spot for the Cavaliers.  Cleveland will be playing their third game in four nights, their fourth game in six nights, and their fifth game in seven nights.  Cleveland’s offense has scored 379 total points in their last three games while shooting 51.8% (141-272) from the field and 45.8% (49-107) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers will also be without starting center Tristan Thompson; he hurt his thumb in last night’s game.

Boston returns home off an easy 110-94 road win over the Knicks on Sunday afternoon.  The Celtics have had the last two nights off to get ready and prepare for Cleveland, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  Boston’s offense comes into this game in excellent current form; the Celtics have scored 100 points or more in seven straight games.  Over their last five games, Boston has averaged 113.8 points per game on 47.7% shooting from the field.  Cleveland owns a -2.4 point differential on the road this season, and since the Cavaliers’ offense is set to regress sharply tonight, we’ll lay the points with Boston in this game on Wednesday night.   

9* Play CELTICS (-).

Orlando will play their third and final game of this current 3-game road trip tonight in Cleveland.  The Magic were competitive at Boston in a 117-116 loss last Friday night before losing the next night in Brooklyn by 10 points (121-111).  Orlando has had the last two days off to get ready for tonight’s game against the Cavaliers, so we expect a peak performance this evening.  Orlando’s offense comes into this game in good current form; the Magic have scored 100 points or more in eight straight games, and in ten of their last eleven games overall.  Over their last five games, Orlando has averaged 112 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land.

Cleveland has won back-to-back games after losing four of their previous five games.  The Cavaliers beat Indiana 135-130 in double overtime on Sunday night, but they had four of their five starters play 42 minutes or more.  LeBron James played over 51 minutes, and even though they had last night off, that game had to take something out of Cleveland.  The team has been in-fighting recently, and it got heated on the court in Sunday’s game.  The Cavaliers are a fragile team right now, and they are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game on top of that.  Cleveland’s offense has scored 257 total points while shooting 51.1% (97-for-190) from the field and 43.7% (31-for-71) from three-point land.  The Cavaliers are set to regress, so we’ll take Orlando plus the points in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play MAGIC (+).

North Carolina was in total control of their game against Oregon on Saturday night, but the Tar Heels fell asleep over the final minute of the game.  They blew a comfortable lead, and their sloppy play almost cost them the win.  Off that terrible finish, we expect a focused North Carolina for the full 40 minutes tonight in this championship game.  Overall, North Carolina averages 84.3 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Tar Heels will now face a Gonzaga defense that has yet to face an offense as good as North Carolina’s.  While it’s true the Bulldogs have terrific seasonal numbers, they’ve played an extremely easy schedule, including their road to the finals as the Zags were fortunate to face the two weakest seeds remaining in Xavier and South Carolina in the Elite Eight and Final Four.

Gonzaga also let a big lead slip away on Saturday against South Carolina.  The Bulldogs were up by 16 points in the second half, but they let a poor Gamecocks’ offense rally back.  That’s not a good sign for tonight, especially considering North Carolina’s offense is a major step-up in class for Gonzaga’s defense.  The Bulldogs played at a fast pace this season, but that will work against Gonzaga in this game against North Carolina.  The Tar Heels simply have the superior talent to play up-tempo for the full 40 minutes of this game, and Gonzaga simply won’t have enough to stay close throughout.  We’ll back North Carolina in the National Championship game on Monday night.

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

Oregon has surprised many people by making a run to the Final Four.  Most pundits assumed the Ducks could not overcome the loss of rim protector Chris Boucher, but Oregon has continued to win without him.  However, his absence will be evident in this game against a North Carolina squad that will dominate the paint.  The Ducks beat a terrible Iona team in the first game, and then Oregon followed that up with fortunate wins over Rhode Island and Michigan in the final minute of those games.  Oregon then played their best game of the tournament in their domination of Kansas as a 6.5-point underdog; the Ducks essentially led that game from start to finish.  Oregon is a team that needs to play fast to be at their best, and they will certainly get that pace tonight against North Carolina.  However, that’s not a good thing considering the Tar Heels simply have the superior talent to play up-tempo for the full 40 minutes of this game.

North Carolina has alternated really good games with mediocre games throughout the tournament.  The Tar Heels won their first game by 39 points, and then they squeaked by Arkansas by 7 points in a game that became close late.  North Carolina then blew out Butler by 12 points in a game that wasn’t that close, and in their last game, they survived Kentucky by hitting the game-winner at the buzzer.  The Tar Heels have now had five days to regroup, so they’ll be set for a peak performance tonight.  Overall, North Carolina averages 84.5 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 36.2% shooting from three-point land.  The Tar Heels are facing an Oregon defense that has given up 72 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with North Carolina in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

San Antonio hits the road after playing a 4-game home stand with their last being a 110-98 loss to Golden State.  The Spurs blew a 22-point lead in that game after their offense went ice cold after the first quarter.  Overall, San Antonio shot just 41% (34-83) from the field and 37.5% (9-24) from three-point land.  San Antonio’s best player, Kawhi Leonard, had his worst game in quite some time as he only scored 19 points on 35% (7-20) shooting from the field; he also missed all five of his 3-point attempts.  The Spurs had a bad team performance, and off that ugly loss with a day off, we expect a peak performance tonight.  San Antonio’s offense has been good on the road this season; the Spurs are averaging 105.7 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 38% shooting from three-point land.

Oklahoma City is in a terrible situational spot for tonight’s home game against San Antonio.  The Thunder return home off a 3-game road trip where they went 2-1 SU.  After losing their first game of the trip in Houston, the Thunder were on their way to another loss in Dallas as they trailed by 13 points with just over 3 minutes left to play.  Oklahoma City scored the last 14 points of that game to win 92-91.  In their last game in Orlando, the Thunder once again overcame another 13-point fourth quarter deficit to beat the Magic in overtime.  Off those back-to-back fortunate wins, we expect major regression from Oklahoma City tonight, especially since they are taking a major step-up in class against the Spurs.  Oklahoma City’s defense is in poor current form; the Thunder have given up 108.4 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 39.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll back San Antonio in this game on Friday night.   

10* Play SPURS (-).

Georgia Tech has been fortunate in their last few games to reach Madison Square Garden and play for the NIT championship tonight.  Georgia Tech beat Indiana in the first round of this tournament, but then they caught their last three opponents off upset wins after shooting well above their seasonal averages in their previous game.  The Yellow Jackets played Belmont after they upset Georgia on the road; they played Mississippi after they upset Syracuse on the road, and then they played Cal State Bakersfield after they upset Texas Arlington on the road.  Georgia Tech’s path to this game couldn’t have been scripted any better, but their streak of playing an opponent in a letdown spot comes to an end tonight.  Georgia Tech has a limited offense that only averages 64.2 points per game on 42.8% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land away from this season.

TCU played good basketball against a very difficult schedule this season, and the Horned Frogs were on the bubble for an at-large bid for the NCAA tournament.  TCU owns a +4.0 point differential compared to Georgia Tech who owns a +0.5 point differential which includes their four NIT games that they won by 12.3 points per game.  TCU owns a big edge on offense in this game as the Horned Frogs are averaging 74.2 points per game on 46.4% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  TCU’s defense has held three of their last four opponents to 68 points or less, so they are quite capable of shutting Georgia Tech’s offense down in this game.  TCU is simply the much better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Horned Frogs in this game on Thursday night.  

10* Play TCU (-).

Milwaukee is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Boston against the Celtics.  The Bucks played last night in Charlotte and they beat the Hornets 118-108 in an impressive performance.  Milwaukee shot an incredible 62.2% (46-74) from the field and 46.7% (14-30) from three-point land in that game.  However, Milwaukee had four starters play 29 minutes or more, including two starters logging 34 minutes or more.  Overall, the Bucks had six players log 23 minutes or more in that game.  Milwaukee will now play on a back-to-back road set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their tenth game over the last seventeen days while playing eight of those ten games on the road.

Boston comes into this game in excellent current form; the Celtics are on a 4-game winning streak and they’ve won seven of their last eight games overall.  Boston has had two full days off to rest and get ready for this game, so that gives them a huge scheduling edge over Milwaukee in this game.  Boston’s offense is averaging 112 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field over their last five games.  Their offense will have success tonight against a Milwaukee defense that gives up 104.4 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 36% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Boston in this game on Wednesday night.    

10* Play CELTICS (-).

Washington is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Los Angeles against the Lakers.  The Wizards’ offense has scored 256 total points in their last two games.  Washington shot 54.7% (98-179) from the field, 40.9% (18-44) from three-point land, and 87.5% (42-48) from the free throw line in those games.  However, Washington has been off for the last two days, and they had to travel across the country for tonight’s game after playing in Cleveland on Saturday night.  The Wizards are set to regress tonight, especially since they will be taking a major step-down in class against the Lakers after beating the Cavaliers as 6-point underdogs in their last game.

Los Angeles will play their sixth and final game of their current home stand before leaving town to play three of their next four games on the road.  The Lakers have gone just 1-4 SU in their last five home games with their last being an ugly 97-81 loss to Portland.  Los Angeles’ offense was embarrassingly bad in that game as they shot just 39.3% (33-84) from the field and 23.8% (5-21) from three-point land.  Off that poor effort, and with this being their last home game for awhile, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Prior to the 81 points they scored in their last game, the Lakers’ offense had scored 100 points or more in nine consecutive games, so they’ll snap back with a strong effort tonight.  We’ll take Los Angeles plus the points in this game on Tuesday night.   

9* Play LAKERS (+).

Philadelphia will play their fifth and final game of their current road trip tonight in Brooklyn against the Nets.  The 76ers are just 1-3 SU so far on the trip, but two of their losses came against superior teams.  Philadelphia lost in overtime to the Magic, and they beat the Bulls, and both of those opponents are on the 76ers’ level.  Brooklyn is certainly on the same level of Philadelphia, so the 76ers are not out-classed in this game.  Philadelphia’s offense is in good current form as they’ve averaged 104.4 points per game on 44.2% shooting from the field over their last five games.  At home, the Nets allow their opponents to average 110.9 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field, so the 76ers will score easy points in this game.

Brooklyn is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s home game against Philadelphia.  The Nets are returning home off a 107-92 win as 6.5-point road underdogs at Atlanta.  Brooklyn won that game despite their offense only shooting 44.2% (38-86) from the field and just 27.3% (6-22) from three-point land.  The Nets will now lay points off a misleading win, so they are quite vulnerable in this spot.  Brooklyn’s defense has been horrendous all season; they give up 113.3 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 36.6% shooting from three-point land.  This is a flat spot for Brooklyn, so we’ll take the points with Philadelphia in this game on Tuesday night.     

9* Play 76ERS (+).

Oklahoma City is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Dallas against the Mavericks.  The Thunder played yesterday afternoon in Houston, and they lost 137-125.  Oklahoma City played a terrific offensive game as they shot 50% (47-94) from the field while also making eleven three’s in that game.  But they lost, and that’s a demoralizing defeat that will leave them with a hangover for tonight’s game, especially since they’ll be playing on a back-to-back set.  Oklahoma City’s offense has scored 247 total points on 52.2% (95-182) shooting from the field in their last two games, so they are set to regress tonight, especially since they will be taking a major step-up in defensive class against the Mavericks.

Dallas will play their fourth and final game of their current home stand before leaving town for a 5-game road trip.  The Mavericks have gone just 1-2 SU in their last three home games with their last being an ugly 94-86 loss to Toronto.  Dallas’ offense was embarrassingly bad in that game as they shot just 37.8% (31-82) from the field and 25% (7-28) from three-point land.  Off that poor effort, and with this being their last home game until April 7th, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Dallas’ defense has been good at home this season; the Mavericks are only giving up 97.6 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 35% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense is plenty capable of slowing down the Thunder’s offense, especially since they are expected to regress.  We’ll back Dallas in this game on Monday night.   

10* Play MAVERICKS (+).

New Orleans had their 3-game winning streak snapped in Houston after losing 117-107 to the Rockets on Friday night.  Despite that loss, the Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the second half of the season.  New Orleans is 5-2 SU over their last seven games, and they’ve bounced back with a win after each of their last two losses.  The Pelicans had last night off, and off a loss, we expect a peak performance tonight.  New Orleans’ offense is in excellent current form as they’ve averaged 113 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Their offense will have success tonight against a Denver defense that has given up an average of 115.6 points per game on 50% shooting from the field and 42.6% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Denver is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s home game against New Orleans.  The Nuggets return home after a 125-117 win as 1.5-point road underdogs at Indiana on Friday night.  Denver had a massive 43-11 free throw attempts edge in that game while out-scoring the Pacers 40-8 from the line, and they only won that game by 8 points.  The Nuggets were underdogs in their last three games which all resulted in wins.  Now they are laying more than a handful of points into a team in terrific current form.  Denver’s offense has scored 375 total points on 50.8% (134-264) shooting from the field, 36.6% (30-82) shooting from three-point land, and 93.9% (77-82) shooting from the free throw line in their last three games.  Denver’s offense is likely to regress in this game, so we’ll take New Orleans plus the points on Sunday night.    

10* Play PELICANS (+).

Kentucky handled UCLA with ease on Friday night, and they did that by controlling the pace.  The Wildcats were also able to survive a low-scoring defensive slugfest against Wichita State in their previous game, so we’ve seen a pattern of how Kentucky has been game-planning for their high octane, up-tempo opponents.  Kentucky needs to control the pace once again tonight to handle North Carolina, and if they do, the Wildcats will be heading to the Final Four.  But even if they don’t and get caught running with the Tar Heels, the Wildcats are still certainly capable of winning just as they did earlier this season in a 103-100 shootout.  Kentucky’s offense is averaging 85.2 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  Kentucky’s biggest advantage in this game comes on the defensive end of the court where they’ve held their last five opponents to just 69.2 points per game on 42.3% shooting from the field and 28.8% shooting from three-point land.

North Carolina is a team that needs to play ultra fast to be at their best.  And they got their preferred style in the first meeting against Kentucky, and still lost.  North Carolina has been able to control the pace in all three of their tournament games, but we don’t expect that to be the case tonight.  North Carolina’s offense actually ranked 4th in efficiency of the teams that made the Sweet 16 while Kentucky’s offense ranked 3rd, so the Tar Heels don’t have an offensive edge in this game.  Overall, North Carolina is averaging 84.7 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from three-point land.  North Carolina will now face a Kentucky defense that has the right personnel to slow them down and force the Tar Heels to execute in the half court.  North Carolina has shown no ability to play that way, so that will be the deciding factor in tonight’s game.  We’ll take Kentucky plus the points in this game on Sunday night.          

9* Play KENTUCKY (+).

Oregon had an easy first round matchup against Iona, but heir last two games were difficult games against strong opponents.  The Ducks survived Rhode Island 75-72 in their second game, and then they squeezed by Michigan 69-68 in their last game.  Don’t be fooled by those two close wins because Oregon was facing very good opponents.  Oregon was also up against the pace in their last two games as Rhode Island and Michigan both prefer to play slower than Oregon wants, and that was another reason why the Ducks only won by small margins.  That won’t be the case tonight against a Kansas team that also likes to play at a fast pace.  Oregon’s offense is averaging 78.7 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land.  Oregon’s biggest advantage in this game comes on the defensive end of the court where they are holding opponents to just 65.9 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 31.4% shooting from three-point land.

Kansas has steamrolled all three of their opponents so far in the tournament.  All three of their wins have come by 20 points or more while their offense has averaged a whopping 96 points per game.  However, the Jayhawks played three inferior teams, so they are certainly stepping way up in class in this game.  Kansas is also set to regress sharply after shooting 54.8% (34-62) from the field and 53.6% (15-28) from three-point land against Purdue in their last game.  In their three tournament games, Kansas has shot an incredible 54.7% (104-190) from the field and 46.6% (34-73) from three-point land.  Those numbers are not sustainable, and since they are facing a very good Oregon defense, there’s reason to expect Kansas will regress tonight.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Oregon plus the points on Saturday night.      

10* Play OREGON (+).

Wisconsin was given a terrible #8 seed by the tournament committee, so the Badgers definitely earned their way to the Sweet 16.  The Badgers had to face #1 and defending national champion Villanova in their last game, but that was a very good matchup for Wisconsin.  The Badgers have a huge edge when they face teams that have to play fast to be at their best.  Wisconsin plays at an extremely slow pace, so when their opponent struggles on offense in the half court, the Badgers have little trouble in beating those teams.  However, when Wisconsin plays a team that can play either fast or slow, they tend to struggle mightily.  The Badgers’ biggest weakness is their offense, and in fact, Wisconsin ranked dead last in efficiency of all the teams in the Sweet 16.  Overall, Wisconsin only averages 70 points per game on 43.9% shooting from the field and 34.6% shooting from three-point land away from home.

Florida ended the regular season on downward swing, but the Gators have reverted back to their early season level in their two tournament games.  Florida beat East Tennessee State by 15 points (80-65) in their first game, and then they waxed Virginia by 26 points (65-39) in their second game.  The Gators also covered the spread in both games, and they did so by a combined 29 points.  Florida has been very impressive in this tournament, and we expect another strong effort from the Gators tonight.  As mentioned above, Florida is a versatile team that can play at a slow or a fast pace.  They are not reliant on one style of play, and that makes them an extremely difficult team to match-up against.  Florida owns an efficient offense that averages 77.9 points per game, and a stout defense that only gives up 65.7 points per game.  Florida is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Gators in this game on Friday night.

10* Play FLORIDA (-).

UCLA comes into tonight’s game against Kentucky with an impressive 31-4 SU record.  One of those wins came in Kentucky earlier this season when the Bruins beat the Wildcats 97-92 as 11-point underdogs.  Obviously that line was way out of whack knowing what we know now, but still, there’s no way UCLA should be the favorite in the rematch.  UCLA is a team that needs to play ultra fast to be at their best.  And they got their preferred style in the first meeting against Kentucky.  However, we don’t expect that to be the case tonight.  UCLA’s offense is the most efficient in the country, and overall, the Bruins are averaging 90.2 points per game on 52.1% shooting from the field and 40.6% shooting from three-point land.  UCLA will now face a Kentucky defense that has the right personnel to slow them down and force the Bruins to execute in the half court.  UCLA has shown no ability to play that way, so that will be the deciding factor in tonight’s game.

Kentucky had a difficult game against a very good Wichita State team to get to the Sweet 16, and the Wildcats were able to survive that low-scoring defensive slugfest.  That’s exactly the type of game Kentucky needs to play tonight to handle UCLA, and if they do, the Wildcats could actually win this game quite easily.  But even if they don’t and get caught running with the Bruins, the Wildcats are still certainly capable of winning.  Kentucky’s offense is averaging 85.2 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 35% shooting from three-point land.  Kentucky’s biggest advantage in this game comes on the defensive end of the court where they’ve held their last five opponents to just 66.2 points per game on 38.8% shooting from the field and 26.9% shooting from three-point land.  The wrong team is favored, so we’ll take Kentucky plus the points in this game on Friday night.          

9* Play KENTUCKY (+).

Denver is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Indiana against the Pacers.  The Nuggets hit the road after a 126-113 win as 2-point home underdogs over Cleveland on Wednesday night.  Denver shot 53.1% (51-96) from the field and 42.3% (11-26) from three-point land in that game.  The Nuggets also scored 124 points in their previous game which resulted in a 125-124 loss at Houston against the Rockets.  Denver was underdogs in both of those games while their offense scored 250 points on 52.2% (95-182) shooting from the field, 41.8% (23-55) shooting from three-point land, and 94.9% (37-39) shooting from the free throw line in their last two games.  Denver’s offense is likely to regress in this game, especially since they will be playing on the road.

Indiana returns home off a 109-100 loss at Boston.  The Pacers had last night off, and off a loss, we expect a peak performance tonight, especially on their home court.  Indiana has alternated wins and losses over their last 15 games, so if they continue that pattern tonight, a win will be had.  Indiana’s offense is averaging 106.5 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Their offense will have success tonight against a Denver defense that gives up 111.2 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll back Indiana in this game on Friday night.    

9* Play PACERS (-).

Xavier making the Sweet 16 is the biggest surprise of the NCAA tournament so far.  The Musketeers were only one of three teams to make the tournament with a negative efficiency margin in conference play.  The other two teams (Virginia Tech and Seton Hall) both lost in the first round.  Xavier benefitted from two deeply flawed teams as Maryland was a terrible #6 seed while Florida State is poorly coached and playing a poor style of basketball that is not conducive to tournament success.  Xavier’s offense shot 52.9% (55-104) from the field, 50% (20-40) from three-point land, and 74% (37-50) from the free throw line in their two tournament wins.  Xavier’s last two games were anomalies, and since they are stepping way up in class for tonight’s game, we expect sharp regression from the Musketeers in this game.

Arizona did not have an easy matchup against St. Mary’s in their last game, so don’t be fooled by their close 69-60 win.  The Wildcats are actually taking a major step-down in class against an undermanned Xavier team.  Arizona plays excellent team basketball, and they use a solid 7-man rotation.  Arizona owns an efficient offense that is averaging 76.7 points per game on 47.8% shooting from the field and 39.6% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona also owns a terrific defense that only gives up 65.8 points per game on 41.8% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Wildcats in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play ARIZONA (-).

Gonzaga comes into tonight’s game against West Virginia with an impressive 34-1 SU record.  However, the Bulldogs played an extremely easy conference schedule this season; they steamrolled every team they played because the competition was so bad.  Gonzaga played three tough opponents out of conference; Florida, Iowa State, and Arizona.  The Bulldogs did beat all three teams, but their wins came by a combined 14 points (4.7 points per game) which is a far cry from the 25.9 points per game they beat their conference opponents by.  Gonzaga continued their easy schedule in the NCAA tournament as they played a bad South Dakota State team followed by a Northwestern team that was off a highly emotional win in their first game.  Despite the favorable draw, the Bulldogs failed to cover the spread in either game while allowing two flawed teams to hang close.  That’s not a good sign for tonight’s matchup against a very good West Virginia team that will be their toughest opponent in over three months.

West Virginia had a difficult road to get to the Sweet 16, but the Mountaineers showed how good they are by winning easier than expected.  West Virginia’s first game came against a very strong Bucknell team that could have won a game in the tournament if they faced an easier opponent.  The Mountaineers then beat Notre Dame in their second game; again a team that could have won against a different opponent.  Those two tough games setup West Virginia perfectly for tonight’s game against Gonzaga, especially since the Bulldogs played two easy opponents.  The Mountaineers play a pressing style that Gonzaga never sees in their conference, and that pressure will force the Bulldogs into many mistakes.  West Virginia’s defense has been excellent on neutral courts as they’ve held their opponents to just 63.6 points per game on 41.3% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take West Virginia plus the points in this game on Thursday night.          

10* Play WEST VIRGINIA (+).

Philadelphia played a 4-game West Coast road trip that concluded on March 14th.  The 76ers then returned home for a pair of games against the Mavericks and Celtics which they won.  Philadelphia then hit the road once again for their last game which resulted in an overtime loss in Orlando after blowing a 15-point halftime lead.  The 76ers had to travel once again for tonight’s back-to-back road set in Oklahoma City against the Thunder.  The fact that Philadelphia was winning so big against Orlando is somewhat of a mystery since they shot just 38.2% (39-102) from the field and 26.5% (9-34) from three-point land.  Philadelphia’s defense has been poor on the road where they give up 109.9 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.

Oklahoma City is off an embarrassing 16-point (111-95) home loss to Golden State on Monday night.  The Thunder’s offense was terrible in that game as they shot just 42.5% (37-87) from the field and an ugly 19% (4-21) from three-point land.  Russell Westbrook had an off game as he only scored 15 points on 25% (4-16) shooting from the field and 16.7% (1-6) shooting from three-point land.  The 95 points scored by Oklahoma City were their lowest output at home this season.  The Thunder average 109.9 points per game on 47% shooting from the field at home, and that matches-up perfectly against Philadelphia’s poor defense on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City in this game on Wednesday night.    

10* Play THUNDER (-).

Detroit has no business being a favorite right now regardless of opponent, and that’s especially true with them being on the road.  The Pistons are just 1-3 SU over their last four games, and they are 3-10 SU over their last thirteen road games.  Detroit’s offense broke out with 112 points in their last game which resulted in a 17-point win over the Phoenix Suns.  Prior to that outburst, Detroit had scored 96, 83, and 75 points in their previous three games.  Over their last five games, Detroit’s offense is only averaging 95.6 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 29.8% shooting from three-point land.  Overall, the Pistons only average 99.5 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 30.9% shooting from three-point land on the road, so don’t expect their offense to repeat their last game’s performance.

Brooklyn has had a terrible season, but the Nets are in a good spot tonight to bring one of their best efforts.  Brooklyn has lost their lost two games, and both of those games came at home.  The Nets were highly competitive in those defeats as they only lost by 3 points to the Celtics and by 7 points to the Mavericks.  This will be their third consecutive home game, and after back-to-back close games, the Nets will break thru tonight.  Brooklyn’s offense is in good current form; the Nets are averaging 108.8 points per game on 44% shooting from the field and 40.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  That offense will face a Detroit defense that is giving up 105.6 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  We’ll take the points with Brooklyn in this game on Tuesday night.    

10* Play NETS (+).

Central Florida comes into tonight’s game at Illinois State with a 22-11 SU record on the season.  However, the Knights won 14 of those game on their home court, and they went just 5-6 SU in their true road games.  Central Florida relies on their defense to win, but they gave up 144 total points in their last two games, so they could be tailing off a bit.  Central’s Florida’s offense has been terrible on the road where they are only averaging 63.1 points per game on 40.9% shooting from the field and 34.1% shooting from three-point land this season.  The Knights own an awful -4.5 point differential away from home as well.

Illinois State felt like they got snubbed by the NCAA tournament committee.  The Redbirds were highly disappointed to be in the NIT, but they bounced back strong from that setback in their first tournament game.  The Redbirds beat UC Irvine by 14 points in their last game, and we expect them to carry over momentum tonight.  Illinois State is a perfect 16-0 SU at home where they own a strong +10.1 point differential on the season.  Illinois State’s defense only gives up 60.7 points per game on 37.1% shooting from the field and 32.8% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Redbirds’ offense averages 70.8 points per game on 44.5% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  We’ll lay the points with Illinois State in this game on Monday night.

10* Play ILLINOIS STATE (-).

Portland will conclude their 5-game road trip tonight in Miami.  The Trail Blazers have won three of their four games so far, so regardless of what happens tonight, they’ll return home from a successful trip.  Portland has won their last two games outright as underdogs; they beat San Antonio as 11-point underdogs, and last night they beat Atlanta as 2-point underdogs.  Portland’s win last night came by 16 points (113-97) after shooting 50.6% (44-87) from the field and 44.4% (8-18) from three-point land.  Portland had three starters play 32 minutes or more while all five starters played 26 minutes or more.  The Trail Blazers will now play on a back-to-back road set with this also being their fifth road game over the last eight days.  

Miami comes into tonight’s game in excellent current form.  The Heat are 6-1 SU over their last seven games, and they’ve won seven consecutive home games by at least 7 points or more.  Miami had last night off, so they have the scheduling edge over Portland in this game.  Miami’s offense is in terrific current form as they’ve averaged 110.6 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Portland’s defense gives up 110 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field and 37.9% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this game on Sunday night.    

9* Play HEAT (-).

Michigan State played their best game of the season on Friday night.  The Spartans blew out Miami, FL by 20 points (78-58) after shooting 56.6% (30-53) from the field.  A big part of their easy win came from their domination on the glass where they held a 34-18 rebounding edge, including a 9-5 edge on the offensive glass.  That edge gave Michigan State a lot of second chance points while holding the Hurricanes to one and done.  The Spartans will not dominate the paint in this game against Kansas, and that will force their offense to match their last game production.  That’s highly unlikely considering the Spartans were terrible on the road where they went just 5-12 SU with a poor -6.7 point differential during the regular season.  Michigan State’s offense only averaged 66.2 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 31.7% shooting from three-point land on neutral courts this season.

Kansas crushed UC Davis by 38 points (100-62) in their opening tournament game.  The Jayhawks shot 56.2% (36-64) from the field and 44% (11-25) from three-point land.  That game took little out of Kansas, and we expect them to play another outstanding game against Michigan State.  The Jayhawks’ offense will face a Michigan State defense that is giving up 74.3 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from three-point land on the road.  Michigan State has shown no consistency whatsoever this season, so we expect major regression in this game.  Kansas is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Jayhawks in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play KANSAS (-).

Iowa State dominated Nevada in their 84-73 win on Thursday night.  The Cyclones shot 55.6% (30-54) from the field and 42.1% (8-19) from three-point land.  Iowa State is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Cyclones got their preferred pace against an inferior Nevada team, and that made Iowa State look impressive.  However, that won’t be the case tonight against Purdue who is a much better team.  Iowa State’s offense averages 81 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land.  But when the Cyclones are forced into a slower-paced game, their offense struggles mightily.  In fact, Iowa State went 0-3 SU away from home this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by 6 points per game.

Purdue had a difficult matchup against Vermont in their tournament opener.  The Boilermakers were able to extend their lead late, but that close game bodes well for today, especially since Iowa State had an easy opening game.  Purdue plays at a controlled pace, and have to believe they’ll slow it down a bit tonight in order to avoid a run and gun game against Iowa State.  Purdue also holds a significant edge on defense in this game.  The Boilermakers are only giving up 67.2 points per game on 41.4% shooting from the field and 32.5% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue combines that with a highly efficient offense that averages 80.1 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land.  Purdue is simply the better team, so we’ll back the Boilermakers in this game on Saturday night.  

9* Play PURDUE (+).

Cleveland has played mediocre basketball since the All-Star break.  The Cavaliers have gone just 6-6 SU, including just 2-4 SU on the road.  Cleveland has won their last two games, but both of those games were on their home court.  The Cavaliers will now make the long trip out to the West Coast and face the Clippers who are primed for a big performance.  Cleveland has also been dealing with numerous injuries to their best players.  Kyrie Irving is nursing a knee injury, Inman Shumpert has a shoulder sprain, Kyle Korver has been out with a foot injury, Derrick Williams has a right quadriceps contusion, and Kevin Love is working himself into game shape after missing significant time after knee surgery.  Cleveland is far from a polished team team right now, and tonight’s game is just a terrible spot for them to be competitive.

Los Angeles returns home off an ugly 129-114 loss in Denver.  That was an expected loss for the Clippers as they were playing on a back-to-back set while also making their second trip into altitude over a four day span.  Los Angeles also played that game shorthanded, so the result can be ignored.  The Clippers come into tonight’s game on a 3-game losing streak, and since they also lost their previous home game, we expect a peak effort tonight.  Los Angeles will be back to full strength as Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan will return to the starting lineup.  The Clippers are 29-11 SU at home where they average 108.4 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land.  Cleveland’s defense gives up 109.3 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Los Angeles in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play CLIPPERS (-).

Xavier beat Maryland by 11 points (76-65) on Thursday night after the Musketeers out-scored the Terrapins 41-29 in the second half.  Xavier shot 50% (25-50) from the field and 39.1% (9-23) from three-point land.  Xavier’s offense only averaged 70.8 points per game on 41.5% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land away from home, so it’s hard to imagine them repeating their last performance.  Xavier was also extremely fortunate to be playing a bad Maryland team that did not deserve to be a #6 seed.  The Musketeers will be taking a major step-up in class for this game against Florida State, and we expect sharp regression from Xavier.  The Musketeers like to play at a fast pace, but that will be to their demise against the Seminoles who play the same way.

Florida State did not have an easy matchup against Florida Gulf Coast in their opening game, so don’t be fooled by their 86-80 win.  The Seminoles are actually taking a step-down in class against an undermanned Xavier team.  Florida State plays excellent team basketball, and they use a solid 8-man rotation.  Their depth is highly beneficial for tournament play, especially in this game against Xavier who only has a 6-man rotation.  Florida State owns an efficient offense that is averaging 82.6 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field.  The Seminoles are also super athletic and their size will be too much for Xavier to handle.  We’ll lay the points with Florida State in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

Michigan State had a tumultuous season.  The Spartans were ravaged with injuries throughout the season, and that resulted them going 19-14 SU.  Michigan State also played much better basketball at home where they went 14-2 SU on the season.  The Spartans were terrible on the road where they went just 5-12 SU with a poor -6.7 point differential.  Michigan State struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, especially when playing away from home.  The Spartans went 0-10 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points with their average loss coming by 11.5 points per game.       

Miami, FL plays at a pretty slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Hurricanes only give up 63.7 points per game on 41.4% shooting from the field and 33.1% shooting from three-point land this season.  Miami held 25 of their 32 opponents this season to 70 points or less, so Michigan State’s offense is in for a struggle.  Miami’s offense will face a Michigan State defense that is giving up 74.3 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 36.5% shooting from three-point land on the road.  Miami will dictate the pace in this game, and since Michigan State has shown no ability to play slow, we’ll lay the points with the Hurricanes in this game on Friday night.

10* Play MIAMI, FL (-).

Seton Hall opened the season with a 12-3 SU record, but the Pirates are just 9-8 SU and ATS over their last seventeen games.  Seton Hall’s offense has struggled with their shooting away from home all season, and that’s not a good thing against a potent Arkansas offense.  Seton Hall is shooting just 42.7% from the field, 34.3% from three-point land, and 64.2% from the free throw line.  The Pirates will now face an Arkansas defense that is in excellent current form.  The Razorbacks have given up 72.2 points per game on just 39.5% shooting from the field and 30.2% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Arkansas is 25-9 SU on the season, and the Razorbacks have gone 8-2 SU over their last ten games.  Arkansas’ two losses during that span came against Kentucky and Florida who happen to be the best two teams in the SEC.  The Razorbacks love to play at a fast pace, and their frenetic style tends to wear teams down.  Seton Hall does not face this style in the Big East, so this is a difficult matchup for the Pirates.  Arkansas averages 79.8 points per game on 46.1% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.  Arkansas simply has too much offense for Seton Hall, so we’ll back the Razorbacks in this game on Friday afternoon.          

9* Play ARKANSAS (-).

Los Angeles is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Denver.  The Clippers lost 97-96 at home last night to the Milwaukee Bucks after blowing a fourth quarter lead.  Four of their five starters played 30 minutes or more, and because of that, head coach Doc Rivers will not be taking a full team to Denver for tonight’s game.  Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan did not make the trip, so that leaves Los Angeles extremely thin inside the paint.  The Clippers will be playing on a back-to-back set in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  This will also be their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.

Denver comes into this game in excellent current form.  The Nuggets have won three straight games, and four of their last five games overall.  Denver’s offense is terrific at home where they are averaging 113.3 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 38.4% shooting from three-point land.  The Nuggets’ offense will take advantage of the undermanned Los Angeles defense in this game, especially since the Clippers will be playing on tired legs.  Los Angeles is giving up 108 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Denver in this game on Thursday night.    

9* Play NUGGETS (-).

Vermont comes into this game with a 29-5 record.  The Catamounts are on a 21-game winning streak, so this is a team that simply knows how to win.  Vermont plays a terrific style of basketball that is well-suited for tournament play.  The Catamounts play at a slow, methodical pace while running good offense and suffocating defense.  Vermont averages 73.4 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field and 36.7% shooting from three-point land.  Vermont’s defense has been exceptional this season while only giving up 62.8 points per game on 43% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land.  The Catamounts have held 15 of their last 18 opponents to 67 points or less. 

Purdue is a team that needs to play at a quick tempo in order to be at their best.  The Boilermakers like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but when they are unable to play at a fast pace, Purdue’s offense struggles in the half court.  The Boilermakers will not get their preferred style of play against a Vermont team that plays at an extremely slow pace while grinding teams in the half court.  Purdue has been held to 70 points or less in five games away from home this season.  The Boilermakers are just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS in those games with their two wins coming by just 4 and 5 points.  Purdue will be out of their comfort zone in this game, so we’ll take the points with Vermont in this game on Thursday night.                     

9* Play VERMONT (+).

Memphis recently snapped a 5-game losing streak, but the Grizzlies are in a tough scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Atlanta.  Memphis is just 4-6 SU since the All-Star break with one of their wins coming last night in Chicago against the Bulls.  The Grizzlies did not shoot the ball well in that win; Memphis hit just 42.4% (36-85) from the field and 35.5% (11-31) from three-point land.  Memphis had two starters play 36 minutes or more while five guys played 24 minutes or more.  The Grizzlies will now play on a back-to-back road set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  

Atlanta last played on Monday night in San Antonio; the Hawks lost 107-99.  Atlanta has had the last two nights off, and off a loss and a return home, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Atlanta’s offense averages 106.4 points per game on 46.3% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Hawks will face a Memphis defense that comes into this game in poor current form; the Grizzlies have given up 105.4 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 45.1% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Thursday night.     

9* Play HAWKS (-).

Vanderbilt got hot at the right time, and they parlayed that into a NCAA tournament bid.  The Commodores went 7-2 SU over their last nine games of the season, and their two wins over Florida during that span sealed their at-large bid.  But Vanderbilt had too put everything they had into their late season push, so there’s reason to expect a drained team for this game.  Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled all season away from home.  The Commodores only average 65.9 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from the three-point land away from home.  Vanderbilt struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, especially when playing away from home.  The Commodores went just 3-8 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points.        

Northwestern had a terrific season, and they finally got their first ever ticket to the Big Dance.  The Wildcats play at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  Northwestern only gives up 65.1 points per game on 40.3% shooting from the field and 33.5% shooting from three-point land this season.  Northwestern held 28 of their 34 opponents this season to 70 points or less, so Vanderbilt’s offense is in for a struggle.  Northwestern will face a Vanderbilt team that shouldn’t be laying points, especially since they own a poor -1.6 point differential away from home this season.  The wrong team is favored, so we’ll take the points with Northwestern in this game on Thursday afternoon.  

9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

Bucknell is a fundamentally sound and experienced team that will not get trapped into West Virginia’s frenetic style.  The Bison are 18-3 over their last twenty-one games, so this is a team that simply knows how to win.  Overall, Bucknell is 26-8 on the season, including 12-6 in games away from home.  The Bison play at a semi-fast, but controlled pace while running good offense that hits a lot of high percentage shots.  Bucknell averages 76.1 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land.  Bucknell’s defense has been exceptional in neutral court games this season as they are only giving up 61 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point land.

West Virginia opened the season with a 12-1 SU record, but the Mountaineers are just 14-7 SU and 7-14 ATS over their last twenty-one games.  West Virginia’s offense comes into this game in poor current form.  The Mountaineers are only averaging 67.4 points per game on 40.2% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  West Virginia is certainly a good team, but their recent play does not warrant them being priced in this pointspread range, especially on a neutral court against a very good Bucknell team that is in excellent current form.  We’ll take the generous points with Bucknell in this game on Thursday afternoon.   

9* Play BUCKNELL (+).

Princeton played exceptional basketball this season.  The Tigers come into this game with a 23-6 record after opening the season at just 4-6.  That means Princeton is on a 19-game winning streak, and to their credit, ten of those games were on the road.  The Tigers are extremely well coached, and they play a perfect half-court style of basketball that is conducive to NCAA tournament success.  Princeton has held their last 18 opponents to 69 points or less in regulation time.  Overall, the Tigers are only allowing 62 points per game on 42.4% shooting from the field and 34.4% shooting from three-point land.  Their defense is tremendous by efficiency metrics as they only give up 0.94 points per 100 possessions.  Princeton also has a terrific offense that averages 70.8 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land.  

Notre Dame was more of a slower paced offense in years past, but the Irish sped up their style of play this season.  And because of their faster style of play, Notre Dame’s offense has struggled mightily in the half court.  The Irish went just 3-5 SU when held to less than 70 points this season, and they are just 1-7 ATS when held to less than 70 points based on the posted spread.  Notre Dame’s three wins came by 4, 5, and 8 points which clearly indicates that the Irish cannot extend leads when playing an opponent that forces them into a half court game.  Notre Dame went just 9-7 on the road this season, and the Irish only own a 1.0 point differential away from home.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Princeton on Thursday afternoon.           

10* Play PRINCETON (+).

UC Irvine had a good season; they won the Big West regular season title while going 12-4 in conference play.  The Anteaters will play in the NIT after reaching the title game of the CollegeIndsider tournament last season.  UC Irvine played all four games on the road to reach that game, so playing away from home is not an issue for them.  UC Irvine played at California, Arizona, Saint Mary's, New Mexico State and Nevada in non-conference this season.  All are NCAA tournament teams except California who happens to be the #1 seed in the NIT.  “We’re not strangers to playing road games against good teams as you can see from looking at our schedule,” said head coach Russell Turner.  The Anteaters also feel a bit disrespected with their seed: “We’ve got a competitive group and enjoy playing together, and we’ve earned the opportunity to do that again. We have a lot of pride. We feel like we’re seeded last in the NIT.”

Illinois State feels like they got snubbed by the NCAA tournament committee.  The Redbirds are highly disappointed to be in the NIT, so they are quite vulnerable tonight, especially as a double digit favorite.  “Obviously we were pretty disappointed and crushed after waiting for our name to come up,” said head coach Dan Muller.  “Mentally it’s tough because we had high hopes.”  Illinois State’s players feel the same way as their coach: “Obviously we were disappointed our name didn’t get called,” said Tony Wills.  “It is what it is. We have to fight through it. We have to come together and make the best of the NIT.”  This game is all about motivation; UC Irvine wants to be playing while Illinois State is clearly distracted by not making the Big Dance.  We’ll take the points with UC Irvine in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play UC IRVINE (+).

New Orleans has played mediocre basketball since the All-Star break.  The Pelicans traded for DeMarcus Cousins, but so far, his addition has yet to make an impact on the team’s performance.  New Orleans is just 4-6 SU with one of their wins coming in overtime.  New Orleans played five of those ten games on their home court, so it’s not a good sign that they’ve struggled.  The Pelicans did beat Portland 100-77 at home last night, but the Trail Blazers were in a terrible spot, so the big win wasn’t a surprise.  New Orleans won by 23 points despite shooting just 28.6% (6-21) from three-point land and 60% (18-30) from the free throw line.  Their win last night had more to do with Portland’s ineptitude rather than any dominance displayed by New Orleans.

Miami last played on Sunday night in Indiana; the Heat lost 102-98.  Miami has been playing without Goran Dragic (eye), but he is expected to return to the court tonight.  Dragic makes Miami’s offense go, so his return will boost the performance and production tonight.  The Heat have had the last two nights off, and off a loss and a return home, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Miami’s offense averages 105.7 points per game on 46.9% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  New Orleans’ defense gives up 104.5 points per game on 44.7% shooting from the field on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play HEAT (-).

Philadelphia will play their fourth and final game of their West Coast road trip tonight at Golden State.  The 76ers opened their trip with a 114-108 overtime loss at Portland.  Next up was a game in Los Angeles against the Clippers where they blew a 4-point lead in the fourth quarter after getting out-scored 37-21 en route to a 112-100 loss.  In their last game, Philadelphia beat the Lakers 118-116 after overcoming a halftime deficit.  Now the 76ers are stepping way up in class against Golden State, and off their last three draining games, we expect Philadelphia to be non-competitive in this game.  Philadelphia’s defense is in poor current form; the 76ers have allowed an average of 118 points per game on 50.3% shooting from the field over their last five games.

Golden State comes into tonight on a 3-game losing streak.  That losing streak began with an ugly 13-point (99-86) home loss to the Boston Celtics.  That was Golden State’s lone home game over their last eight games, and with a return home tonight, we expect a peak performance.  Don’t read too much into Golden State’s 22-point loss at San Antonio on Saturday night because the Warriors rested four of their starters.  Golden State has had two full days off since, and with everybody returning to the court, the Warriors will be primed for a big game, especially on the offensive end of the court.  Golden State’s offense is terrific at home where they are averaging 120.3 points per game on 51.3% shooting from the field and 41.6% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Golden State in this game on Tuesday night.    

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

This is a difficult scheduling situation for the Lakers as they must travel and play in the thin air and altitude of Denver after a draining, high-scoring 116-118 loss at home versus the 76ers last night.  The Lakers' defense was terrible as they allowed Philadelphia to score those 118 points while shooting 51.9% from the field, including 41.7% from three-point range.  The Lakers are now 1-9 SU in their past ten games and they will have no time to fix their problems tonight, especially on the road where they are 8-27 SU this season while allowing 113.1 points per game on 48.4% FG shooting.

Denver enters tonight in solid current form with a 5-2 SU/ATS record over their past seven games, including back-to-back wins by +33 points.  Overall, the Nuggets have won their past five games by +75 points combined.  Denver is rested and will be focused as they are playing with revenge after losing the most recent meeting in Los Angeles in January.  The Nuggets are still 6-2 ATS in the past eight head-to-head meetings in this series and Denver has been a strong offensive team at home this season where they average 112.8 points per game on 47.8% FG shooting.  This is a solid scheduling situation for Denver at home tonight.

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Portland is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Phoenix.  The Trail Blazers have played back-to-back overtime games, including last night at home against the Washington Wizards.  The Trail Blazers blew a 21-point halftime lead in that game and lost 125-124 despite shooting 51.1% (48-94) from the field and 50% (16-32) from three-point land.  Portland had seven players log 25 minutes or more, including five guys logging 33 minutes or more.  In their previous overtime game against Philadelphia, the Trail Blazers had four of their five starters play 38 minutes or more while six players overall logged 24 minutes or more.  Portland will now hit the road while playing on a back-to-back set after two consecutive draining games.

Phoenix also played last night, but they got a confidence-building win at Dallas in a 100-98 final.  The Suns will now return home, and they are catching points against a tired and deflated Portland team.  Phoenix has a good offense that can take advantage of Portland’s tired defense.  The Suns are averaging 107.7 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 34.2% shooting from three-point land.  That offense will face a Portland defense that is giving up 110.6 points per game on 45.6% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take the points with Phoenix in this game on Sunday night.    

10* Play SUNS (+).

A pair of top 25 teams will meet in the Big 12 championship game tonight in Kansas City, Missouri and the matchup edge goes to West Virginia.  The Mountaineers are already 2-0 SU/ATS this season versus the Cyclones with easy double-digit wins in both games.  WVU won 85-72 as a 2-point road favorite in January and then won 87-76 as an 8-point home favorite one week ago.  Using a standard 3.5 points for home court in each game would have made neutral court lines of -5.5 and -4.5 favoring West Virginia, so tonight's line for this third meeting is a full basket too low.

Iowa State is a team that needs to play fast with an uptempo pace in order to be successful.  That style plays right into West Virginia's game plan as the Mountaineers are a full-court pressure defense that forces 21 turnovers per game and is very comfortable with a fast pace.  West Virginia enters this game in excellent current form on defense, allowing just 62.0 points on 40.2% FG shooting in their past five games, while Iowa State has allowed 77.0 points on 43.4% FG in their past five games.  The Cyclones rely heavily on the three-point shot with 25 attempts per game this season, however those long range shots will be more difficult tonight since this is the third game in three days without rest, while West Virginia will be able to generate more consistent baskets down low and in transition.  The matchup and line value favors the Mountaineer in this Big 12 championship game on Saturday night.

10* Play WEST VIRGINIA (-).

Vanderbilt played last night and they beat Texas A&M 66-41.  The Commodores somehow won that game by 25 points despite shooting just 39.7% (23-58) from the field and 37.9% (11-29) from three-point land.  That type of offensive performance against Florida tonight will make Vanderbilt non-competitive in this game.  Vanderbilt’s offense has struggled all season away from home, so there’s a very good chance they’ll play a subpar game tonight.  The Commodores only average 65.9 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from the three-point land away from home.  Vanderbilt struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, especially when playing away from home.  The Commodores went just 3-7 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points.

Florida comes into tonight’s game off a 73-71 road loss at Vanderbilt in their season finale.  The Gators did not have to play yesterday, and with extra time to prepare for this game and playing with quick turnaround revenge, we expect a strong bounce back game by Florida.  The Gators are actually playing with double revenge as they also lost to Vanderbilt at home this season as well.  Florida’s defense only gives up 66.4 points per game on 40.8% shooting from the field and 45.4% shooting from three-point land, and they’ll stymie Vanderbilt’s offense in this game.  We’ll lay the points with Florida in this game on Friday night.

10* Play FLORIDA (-).

Alabama had to play yesterday, and the Crimson Tide beat Mississippi State 75-55.  Alabama played one of their best offensive games of the season while scoring 75 points in their twenty-point win.  Alabama shot 47.2% (25-53) from the field and 50% (8-16) from three-point land.  The Crimson Tide have struggled all season on offense, and in fact, Alabama only averages 68.6 points per game on 42.2% shooting from the field and 32% shooting from three-point land.  Alabama’s offense averages just 67.2 points per game on 41.2% shooting from the field and 32.2% shooting from three-point land away from home, so yesterday’s offensive outburst sets them up to regress in this game.

South Carolina comes into today’s game off a 75-70 road loss at Mississippi in their season finale.  The Gamecocks did not have to play yesterday, and with extra time to prepare for this game and playing off a loss, we expect a strong bounce back game by South Carolina.  The Gamecocks will also be playing with revenge after losing to Alabama in overtime earlier this season.  South Carolina’s defense only gives up 64.6 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 29.5% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with South Carolina in this game on Friday afternoon.

9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (-).

Indiana began the season with a 10-2 SU record, but since then, the Hoosiers have gone just 7-12 SU over their last nineteen games.  Unfortunately for Indiana, they were hit with major injuries to their better players.  James Blackmon Jr and Juwan Morgan both missed multiple games while OG Anunoby suffered a season-ending knee injury.  However, Indiana’s play as of late has been vastly improved despite the fact they’ve gone just 2-6 SU over their last eight games.  In fact, four of their six losses have come by 6 points or less, so those games could have been wins instead of losses.  One of those losses was a 96-90 overtime loss at Iowa in a game Indiana dominated but ultimately couldn’t overcome the refs who gave the Hawkeyes a whopping 47 attempts from the free throw line; Indiana only took 19 free throws.  Indiana has a very good offense that averages 80.4 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 37.6% shooting from three point-land.  That strong offense will now face a terrible Iowa defense that gives up 80.6 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 37.5% shooting from three-point land away from home.

Iowa comes into this game on a 4-game winning streak which began with their overtime home win over Indiana.  The Hawkeyes then won outright as underdogs at Maryland and at Wisconsin before blowing out Penn State in their last home game.  Iowa’s defense has been their weakness all season, especially as of late.  They’ve given up 70 points or more in eleven of their last fourteen games.  Over their last five games, Iowa has allowed 73 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field.  Iowa’s offense played one of their best games of the season in their route of Penn State.  The Hawkeyes scored 90 points on 47.7% (31-65) shooting from the field, 57.1% (12-21) shooting from three-point land, and 84.2% (16-19) from the free throw line.  Indiana is the superior team, and since Iowa is set to regress, we’ll back the Hoosiers in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play INDIANA.

New Mexico went 17-13 SU during the regular season, but they ended on a 1-3 SU slide.  The Lobos won their last game 64-59 over San Diego State as 1.5-point home underdogs.  New Mexico is a team that needs to play at a faster pace to be at their best, but they will not get their preferred pace against Fresno State in this game.  New Mexico struggles mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, especially when playing away from home.  The Lobos went just 1-4 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points.  Fresno State routinely plays in games that have low possessions, so New Mexico’s offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.

Fresno State was in a funk for the month of January when they went just 4-6 SU over a ten-game stretch.  The Bulldogs have reverted back to their winning ways as they come into this game on a 5-game winning streak.  Fresno State plays at a slow pace while playing solid defense.  Over their last five games, Fresno State’s defense has given up just 60.2 points per game on 41.9% shooting from the field and 29.5% shooting from three-point land.  New Mexico’s offense is in poor current form; the Bulldogs have only averaged 66 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field and 28.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll back Fresno State in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play FRESNO STATE (-).

Rutgers went just 14-17 SU during the regular season with ten of those wins coming on their home court.  The Scarlett Knights went just 4-11 SU away from home, so it’s apparent they’ve played much worse on the road this season.  Rutgers already lost to Ohio State earlier this season after their offense shot just 39.7% (25-63) from the field and 23.5% (4-17) from three-point land.  The Scarlett Knights have struggled all season on offense, and in fact, Rutgers only averages 65 points per game on 41% shooting from the field and 29.5% shooting from three-point land.  Rutgers’ offense averages just 61 points per game on 39.4% shooting from the field and 31% shooting from three-point land away from home.

Ohio State comes into tonight’s game off a 96-91 home loss to Indiana in their season finale.  The Buckeyes played their worst defensive game of the season while allowing Indiana to shoot 58.6% (34-58) from the field and 52.2% (12-23) from three-point land.  Off that awful defensive performance, we expect a strong bounce back game by Ohio State, especially since they are taking a monumental step-down in offensive class against Rutgers.  Overall, the Buckeyes’ defense only gives up 69.9 points per game on 41.7% shooting from the field and 35.8% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Ohio State in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play OHIO STATE (-).

Chicago has played mediocre basketball since the All-Star break.  The Bulls are 3-3 SU with one of their wins coming in overtime.  Chicago played four of those six games on their home court, so it’s not a good sign that they’ve struggled.  The Bulls lost 109-95 in Detroit on Monday night, and now they’ll be playing on a back-to-back road set while playing shorthanded.  Chicago may be without Jimmy Butler (illness), Dwyane Wade (thigh), and Rajon Rondo (ankle) tonight; all three are listed as either doubtful or game-time decisions.  Chicago’s offense has trouble scoring when those three are on the floor, so if the Bulls have to play without them, it’s hard to imagine the team being efficient on the offensive end of the court.

Orlando comes into tonight’s game off back-to-back losses with their last being a 113-105 home loss to the New York Knicks.  The Magic held a 7-point lead heading into the fourth quarter of that game, but they got out-scored 28-13 over the final twelve minutes and lost.  The Magic had last night off, and off that blown game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Orlando’s offense comes into this game in good current form.  Over their last five games, the Magic have averaged 104.8 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field.  Chicago’s defense has given up 104.2 points per game on 47.5% shooting from the field over their last five games.  We’ll back Orlando in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play MAGIC (+).

Sacramento has played five consecutive home games since the All-Star break.  The Kings went 1-4 SU in those games with their last being a 110-109 home loss in overtime last night to the Utah Jazz.  Sacramento blew that game after being up by 12 points heading into the fourth quarter, and after a draining effort, we don’t expect the Kings to have much for tonight’s game in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  The Kings had all five starters play 37 minutes or more while three of those guys played 39 minutes or more.  Overall, Sacramento had seven players log 24 minutes or more.  The Kings will now hit the road while playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their first road game since February 15th.  Sacramento’s defense has been poor on the road this season; the Kings are giving up 105.2 points per game on 45.9% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land.    

Denver was in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for their game against the Hornets on Saturday night.  They lost that game as expected, but off such a poor effort, we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Nuggets had three starters score 8 points or less on 22.2% shooting from the field (4-18) and 25% (3-12) shooting from three-point land in that game.  Denver’s offense is terrific at home where they are averaging 112.8 points per game on 47.4% shooting from the field and 37.7% shooting from three-point land.  The Nuggets’ offense will take advantage of the poor Sacramento defense, especially since the Kings will be playing on tired legs.  We’ll lay the points with Denver in this game on Monday night.    

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Minnesota has an impressive 23-7 SU record, and the Golden Gophers come into this game on an 8-game winning streak.  Minnesota is a team that needs to play fast to be at their best, but they will not get their preferred pace tonight against a Wisconsin team that plays at a very slow pace.  The Golden Gophers struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, and they are just 1-3 SU on the road this season when held to less than 70 points.  Wisconsin routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Minnesota’s offense will be out of their comfort zone in this game.

Wisconsin comes into their season finale on a 3-game losing streak with their last being a terrible 59-57 loss to Iowa as 12-point home favorites.  Off that ugly effort, and with this being the last home game for their seniors, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Wisconsin plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Badgers only give up 56.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting from the field at home.  Minnesota’s offense has been much worse on the road where they only average 69.6 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 31.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  We’ll lay the points with Wisconsin in this game on Sunday night.

10* Play WISCONSIN (-).

Charlotte has alternated wins and losses since the All-Star break with their last game being a 120-103 loss at Phoenix.  The Hornets had last night off, and off a blowout loss, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Charlotte’s offense has played good basketball recently, and that will continue tonight against a Denver defense that gives up 111.5 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land at home.  The Hornets are averaging 108 points per game despite shooting just 42.5% shooting from the field and 35.9% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.

Denver is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game against Charlotte.  The Nuggets return home off back-to-back road wins at Chicago and at Milwaukee.  Denver was underdogs in both of those games, but now they must lay points into the Hornets; the Nuggets are just 1-3 ATS as a favorite their last four times in that role.  Denver’s offense scored 225 points while shooting 52.4% (86-164) from the field, 36.5% (23-63) from three-point land, and 90.9% (40-44) from the free throw line in their last two games.  Denver will regress in this game, so we’ll take the points with Charlotte on Saturday night.    

9* Play HORNETS (+).

Duke has an impressive 23-7 SU record, and the Blue Devils already beat North Carolina by 8 points (86-78) earlier this season.  But we expect a much different outcome in the rematch, especially with this game on North Carolina’s strong home court.  Duke shot 52.6% (30-57) from the field and 48.1% (13-27) from three-point land in the first meeting, but that won’t be repeated tonight.  The Blue Devils have played much better basketball at home than on the road, and in fact, Duke is just 4-5 SU in true road games this season.  Duke’s defense is giving up 71.7 points per game on 44.9% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land.

North Carolina returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being an expected loss at Virginia.  The Tar Heels played their worst game of the season, especially on offense as they scored just 43 points against the Cavaliers.  North Carolina is a perfect 15-0 SU at home this season, and with this being their final home game, we expect a peak performance tonight.  North Carolina’s offense is averaging 87.3 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land.  North Carolina’s defense has been terrific at home where they are only giving up 64.8 points per game on 40.5% shooting from the field and 29.7% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with North Carolina in this game on Saturday night.     

10* Play NORTH CAROLINA (-).

Kansas comes into tonight’s game at Oklahoma State with the #1 ranking and an impressive 27-3 SU record.  However, this is a tough scheduling and situational spot for the Jayhawks.  Kansas will hit the road after an emotional senior night win over Oklahoma.  The Jayhawks trailed by 12 points in the second half before rallying back for a 73-63 win.  Kansas shot 50% (26-52) from the field and 47.4% (9-19) from three-point land in that comeback win.  Kansas beat Oklahoma State 87-80 at home earlier this season, but they trailed at the half, and they got out-shot 45.6%-44.1% from the field.  The Jayhawks were fortunate in getting a very favorable whistle in that game as they were +19 points from the free throw line while attempting a whopping 45 free throws to the Cowboys’ 14 attempts from the line.

Oklahoma State returns home off an 86-83 road loss at Iowa State.  The Cowboys are in excellent current form; they are 8-2 SU over their last ten games.  Oklahoma State is 11-4 SU at home where their offense has been very difficult to stop.  The Cowboys are averaging 91.5 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 40.1% shooting from three-point land.  Oklahoma State’s strong offense will face a Kansas defense that has been significantly worse on the road where they are giving up 71.5 points per game on 43.2% shooting from the field.  This is a natural letdown spot for Kansas, so we’ll back Oklahoma State at home on Saturday night.

9* Play OKLAHOMA STATE (pick).

Texas Tech comes into today’s game at Kansas State with a solid 18-12 SU record.  However, sixteen of their eighteen wins this season have come on their home court.  The Red Raiders are 0-8 SU in conference road games, and we do not expect that to change after this game.  Texas Tech is just 3-6 SU over their last nine games, so they are not in good current form right now.  The Red Raiders beat Kansas State 66-65 earlier this season, but the Red Raiders were fortunate as they trailed at the half, and they only led for a total of 47 seconds in the second half.  That’s not a good sign with the rematch on the road, especially since Texas Tech gives up 72.9 points per game on 44.5% shooting from the field away from home this season.

Kansas State returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 75-74 win at TCU.  The Wildcats have lost their previous four home games, and with this being their final game of the regular season, they’ll be primed for a peak performance this afternoon.  Kansas State is holding opponents to just 67 points per game on 42.7% shooting from the field at home this season.  Kansas State’s offense has also been much better at home where they average 74.6 points per game on 46.7% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land this season.  We’ll lay the points with Kansas State in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play KANSAS STATE (-).

Toronto just hosted Washington on Wednesday night, and the Raptors lost that game 105-96 as 4.5-point home favorites.  The Raptors’ offense was terrible in that game as they only shot 36.7% (33-90) from the field and 35% (7-20) from three-point land.  Despite the 9-point loss and the terrible shooting, Toronto held some significant advantages over Washington in that game.  The Raptors dominated the boards, especially on the offensive end of the court.  Toronto held a 16-7 offensive rebounding edge, and they also got to the free throw line 26 times (7 more attempts than Washington).  The Raptors also held a 13-5 fast-break points edge which shows they were the more aggressive team while being able to control the pace of the game.  Toronto’s downfall was their shooting, but off that poor performance, we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight.

Washington is in a bad situational spot for tonight’s rematch with Toronto.  The Wizards return home off their upset win at Toronto, and they are now laying points.  Not only that, but Washington also beat Golden State 112-108 as 7-point home underdogs in their game prior to that.  So Washington is off back-to-back SU wins as underdogs, and they are now playing in the favorite’s role.  The Wizards lost 102-92 to Utah in their first home game after the All-Star break, and Toronto’s new lineup is quite capable of playing similar lockdown defense.  In fact, prior to their loss to Washington, the Raptors held three of their previous four opponents to 97 points or less.  This game will go right down to the wire, so we’ll take Toronto plus the points on Friday night.    

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

Denver is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Milwaukee.  The Nuggets have alternated wins and losses since the All-Star break, and their last game was a 125-107 win at Chicago last night.  Denver shot 56.2% (45-80) from the field, 43.3% (13-30) from three-point land, and 91.7% (22-24) from the free throw line.  Denver played a complete team game last night with seven guys scoring in double digits.  The Nuggets had four starters play 30 minutes or more while six guys played 28 minutes or more.  Denver is now playing on a back-to-back road set without rest, so they will regress off last night’s performance.

Milwaukee has also alternated wins and losses since the All-Star break with their last game being a 102-95 loss at Cleveland.  The Bucks had last night off, and with a return home, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Milwaukee has played much better basketball at home this season, especially on the offensive end of the floor.  The Bucks are averaging 107.9 points per game on 48.5% shooting from the field and 37.3% shooting from three-point land at home.  Milwaukee will face a Denver defense that is giving up 111.8 points per game on 48.2% shooting from the field and 37.4% shooting from three-point land on the road this season.  We’ll back Milwaukee in this game on Wednesday night.    

10* Play BUCKS (-).