-Toronto’s Ryan Borucki projects to allow 3.0 earned runs with a 5.20 ERA and 1.53 WHIP 

-lefty projects to have a 5.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio

-Astros offense has been strong vs. left-handed starters this season; averaging 4.7 runs per game

-Houston’s Charlie Morton projects to allow 2.1 earned runs with a 3.21 ERA and 1.08 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 10.8 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and 3.7 strikeout/walk ratio

-Blue Jays lineup has hit just .157 (8-51) with a terrible .448 OPS against Morton in his career

10* Play ASTROS (-1.5 runline).

-Tampa Bay’s Blake Snell projects to allow 2.7 earned runs with a 4.37 ERA and 1.44 WHIP 

-lefty has been poor on the road this season; 21 earned runs on 34 hits in 50 innings of work

-Astros lineup has hit a solid .391 (18-46) with a 1.233 OPS against Snell in his career

-Houston’s Justin Verlander projects to allow 2.0 earned runs with a 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 10.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and 5.9 strikeout/walk ratio

-Rays lineup has hit just .189 (10-53) with a terrible .445 OPS against Verlander in his career

9* Play ASTROS (-1.5 runline).

-Chicago’s Dylan Covey projects to allow 3.1 earned runs with a 5.58 ERA and 1.64 WHIP 

-righty gave up 5 runs on 5 hits in 4.1 innings of work in his last start in Cleveland; repeat here 

-Indians lineup has hit a solid .310 (13-42) with a .703 OPS against Covey in his career

-Cleveland’s Trevor Bauer projects to allow 2.2 earned runs with a 3.30 ERA and 1.10 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 12.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and 5.0 strikeout/walk ratio

-White Sox lineup has hit just .196 (22-112) with a terrible .523 OPS against Bauer in his career

9* Play INDIANS (-1.5 runline).

-Minnesota’s Kyle Gibson projects to allow 3.0 earned runs with a 4.96 ERA and 1.52 WHIP 

-righty has started 4 of his last 5 games at home; lone road game was against KC; big step-up

-Indians lineup has hit .374 (64-171) with a terrific 1.074 OPS against Gibson in his career

-Cleveland’s Corey Kluber projects to allow 2.2 earned runs with a 3.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP 

-righty projects to have an 11.3 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and 6.1 strikeout/walk ratio

-Twins lineup has hit just .148 (19-128) with a terrible .443 OPS against Kluber in his career

10* Play INDIANS (-1.5 runline).

-Pittsburgh's Ivan Nova projects to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.62 ERA and 1.23 WHIP today
-righty projects to have an 8.0 strikeout rate per 9 innings pitched with 3.1 strikeout/walk ratio
-Cubs' lineup has hit just .218 (27-for-124) with a weak .655 OPS against Nova during his career

-Chicago's Kyle Hendricks projects to allow 2.8 earned runs with a 3.89 ERA and 1.39 WHIP today
-righty is in poor current form; 8 earned runs on 14 hits in his last 17 innings of work; 4.24 ERA
-Pirates' offense has hit a solid .275 (46-for-167) with a .768 OPS against Hendricks in his career

10* Play PIRATES (+1.5 run line).

-Golden State was primed for a big effort in Game 2; won easily as expected; letdown now
-offense shot 57.3% (47-83) from the field and 41.7% (15-36) from three: regression here
-Warriors defense allows 108.6 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 106.4 ppg 

-Cleveland was terrible in Game 2, but that was expected off their Game 1 effort; bounce back
-offense is shooting 48.2% from the field at home vs. defenses that only allow 45.9% shooting
-Cavaliers defense has given up 103 points or less in all nine of their home playoff games 

10* Play CAVALIERS (+).

-Cleveland played to their max level in Game 1 and still lost by 10 points; regression now
-offense was all LeBron with 51 points; Kevin Love had 21 points off a concussion; can't repeat
-Cavaliers defense allows 47.1% shooting from the field vs. offenses that only shoot 46%

-Golden State went thru the motions in Game 1; overtime wake-up call brings a big effort here
-offense averages 113.3 points per game at home vs. defenses that allow 106.1 points per game
-Warriors defense allows 44.1% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 45.9%

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

-Cleveland survived another 7-game series; LeBron played 46 and 48 minutes in last 2 games
-offense struggled mightily against Boston on the road; scored just 94, 87, and 83 points twice
-Cavaliers defense allows 47.1% shooting from the field vs. offenses that only shoot 45.9%

-Golden State comes in off back-to-back wins where their offense improved; explosion here
-offense averages 113.1 points per game at home vs. defenses that allow 106.1 points per game
-Warriors defense allows 44.1% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 45.9%

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

-LA’s Shohei Ohtani projects to give up 2.1 earned runs with a 3.28 ERA and 1.15 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 10.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.6 strikeout/walk ratio

-Tigers lineup has never faced Ohtani before; disadvantage; averaging just 4.2 runs per game

-Detroit starter Mike Fiers projects to allow 3.0 earned runs with a 5.11 ERA and 1.43 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 6.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 1.8 strikeout/walk ratio

-Angels offense has been terrific on the road where they are averaging 5.7 runs per game

10* Play ANGELS (-1.5 runline).

-Golden State exploded in the second half of Game 6 at home 64-25; unlikely on road now
-Curry and Thompson shot 59% (13-22) from the field and 73% (11-15) from 3pt in 2nd half
-Warriors' defense allows 108.9 point per game on the road vs. offenses that average 106.3 ppg

-Houston returns home off an ugly road loss; they are 41-9 SU at home; strong bounce back spot
-offense averages 113.6 points per game at home vs. defenses that allow just 106.2 ppg overall
-Rockets' defense allows 34.8% shooting from 3pt at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3pt
-Line is inflated now; Chris Paul (game-time decision); Rockets were Pick'em in last home game

10* Play ROCKETS (+).

-Cleveland scored 336 points in their 3 home wins; scored just 260 points in 3 losses in Boston
-offense will be missing Kevin Love (concussion); eliminates second leading scorer; big loss
-Cavs defense allows 47.2% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46% from the field

-Boston was terrible in all 3 games on the road; 10-0 SU at home in the playoffs; bounce back
-offense is shooting 37.3% from three vs. defenses that allow 36.2% shooting from three
-Celtics defense allows 100 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 106.5 ppg

10* Play CELTICS (-).

-San Diego’s Jordan Lyles projects to allow 2.6 earned runs with a 4.39 ERA and 1.41 WHIP 

-righty has been terrible on the road this season; 8 runs on 11 hits in 13.1 innings; 5.40 ERA

-Dodgers lineup has hit .347 (34-98) with a terrific .986 OPS against Lyles in his career

-LA starter Alex Wood projects to allow 1.9 earned runs with a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP 

-lefty projects to have an 8.6 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 5.3 strikeout/walk ratio

-Padres offense is in bad form; hitting .211 and scoring 3.4 runs per game over their last 7 games

9* Play DODGERS (-1.5 runline).

-Houston survived an ugly Game 5 and came out with a win; no Chris Paul gives them no chance
-offense is shooting 45.3% from the field on the road vs. defenses that give up 46% shooting
-Rockets defense gave up 119, 105, and 126 points in the first 3 games in this series; bad sign

-Golden State comes in off back-to-back losses where their offense was terrible; explosion here
-offense averages 113.1 points per game at home vs. defenses that allow 106.1 points per game
-Warriors defense allows 34.6% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 35.9% from 3

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

-Washington’s Tanner Roark projects to allow 2.6 earned runs with a 3.80 ERA and 1.37 WHIP 

-righty has been at his worst in day games; 6 earned runs on 12 hits in 13.1 innings; 4.05 ERA 

-Marlins lineup has hit a solid .303 (36-119) with a terrific .852 OPS against Roark in his career

-Miami’s Wei-Yin Chen projects to allow 2.0 earned runs with a 3.63 ERA and 1.16 WHIP 

-lefty projects to have a 7.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.2 strikeout/walk ratio

-Nationals lineup is poor vs. left-handed starters; hitting .218 while averaging 3.6 runs per game

9* Play MARLINS (+1.5 runline).

-Golden State hits the road off an ugly home loss in Game 4; scored just 92 points; bounce back
-offense averages 113 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 106.1 points per game
-Warriors only allow 44.5% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46% from the field

-Houston benefitted from the Warriors inability to score in the 4th quarter; 25-12 was a fluke
-offense is shooting 35.9% from 3 at home vs. defenses that allow 36.2% shooting from the field
-Rockets defense allows 46.5% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 46.2%

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

-Cleveland won both home games after scoring 227 points; scored just 177 in 2 losses in Boston
-offense shot 49.7% (78-157) from the field and they hit 25 three’s in those games; regress here
-Cavs' defense allows 47.3% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot just 46.0% FG overall

-Boston was terrible past two games on the road; 9-0 SU at home in the playoffs; bounce back now
-offense is shooting 37.3% from 3pt range vs. defenses that allow just 36.2% shooting from 3pt
-Celtics' defense allows only 100.3 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 106.5 ppg

10* Play CELTICS.

-Houston was awful as expected in their 41-point loss in Game 3; strong bounce-back spot now
-offense averages 111.9 points per game vs. defenses that give up just 106.2 points per game
-Rockets' defense allows 35.4% shooting from 3pt range vs. offenses that shoot 36.1% from 3pt

-Golden State starting unit played perfect in Game 3; scored 93 of their 116 points; unlikely again
-offense shot 52.2% (48-92) from the field and they made 13 three-pointers; regression in Game 4
-Warriors' defense allows 106.8 point per game vs. offenses that average 106.2 points per game

10* Play ROCKETS (+).

-Boston was terrible in Game 3 as expected; lost by 30 points; strong bounce back spot now
-offense shot just 39.2% (29-74) from the field and 27.3% (6-22) from 3pt; don't expect a repeat
-Celtics' defense allows 33.9% shooting from 3pt on road vs. offenses that shoot 36.1% from 3pt

-Cleveland played their best game for all 48 minutes in Game 3; expect a natural letdown tonight
-offense shot 48.7% (37-76) from the field and 50% (17-34) from 3pt; regression in Game 4 now
-Cavaliers' defense allows 47.6% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 46.0% FG

10* Play CELTICS (+).

-Houston bounced back strong as expected in Game 2; 5 players scored 16 points or more
-offense shot 51.1% (45-88) from the field and they made 16 three’s; regression in Game 3
-Rockets defense allows 46.3% shooting from the field on the road; not a good matchup here

-Golden State returns home off an ugly 22-point road loss in Game 2; strong bounce back here
-offense averages 113.3 points per game at home vs. defenses that allow 106.2 points per game
-Warriors defense allows 34.7% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 35.9% from 3

10* Play WARRIORS (-).

-Boston won Games 1 and 2 on their home court; 1-4 SU on the road in the playoffs; win in OT
-offense is shooting 44.2% from the field on the road vs. defenses that allow 46% shooting
-Celtics defense has given up 101 points or more in 8 of their 13 playoff games; 103.6 ppg away

-Cleveland returns home off back-to-back road losses; 34-13 SU at home; strong bounce back
-offense is shooting 48.2% from the field at home vs. defenses that only give up 46% shooting
-Cavaliers defense has only given up 97.8 points per game in their 6 playoff games at home

10* Play CAVALIERS (-).

-Golden State starting unit played terrific in Game 1; starting 5 scored 99 of their 119 points
-offense shot 52.5% (42-80) from the field and they made 13 three’s; regression in Game 2
-Warriors defense allows 108.8 point per game on the road vs. offenses that average 106.1 ppg

-Houston comes in off a home loss in Game 1; they are 39-9 SU at home; strong bounce back
-offense averages 113.6 points per game at home vs. defenses that allow 106.2 points per game
-Rockets defense allows 34.8% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.1% from 3

10* Play ROCKETS (-).

-Cleveland was terrible in Game 1; they lost by 25 points (108-83); expect a strong bounce back
-offense shot just 36% (31-86) from the field and 15.4% (4-26) from 3; don't expect a repeat
-Cavs defense allows 34.9% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3

-Boston played their best game for all 48 minutes in Game 1; expect a natural letdown tonight
-offense shot 51.2% (43-84) from the field and they made 11 three’s; regression in Game 2
-Celtics defense had given up 101 points or more in 8 of their 12 playoff games prior to Game 1

10* Play CAVALIERS (+).

-Washington’s Max Scherzer projects to give up 2.0 earned runs with a 2.98 ERA and 1.00 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 12.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 4.8 strikeout/walk ratio

-Diamondbacks lineup has hit just .200 (22-110) with a .594 OPS against Scherzer in his career 

-Arizona starter Matt Koch projects to allow 2.9 earned runs with a 4.91 ERA and 1.42 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 6.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 1.8 strikeout/walk ratio

-Nationals offense has been terrific on the road where they are averaging 5.3 runs per game

10* Play NATIONALS (-1.5 runline).

-Philadelphia won Game 4 as expected; they were road favorites in Games 1 and 2; value now
-offense is shooting 37.5% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 36.1% shooting from 3
-76ers defense allows 43.5% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.9% from the field

-Boston was fortunate to win Games 2 and 3; have not dominated this series despite 3-1 lead
-offense is shooting 45% from the field at home vs. defenses that give up 46% shooting
-Celtics defense gave up 225 points to the 76ers in Games 1 and 2 at home and still won; lucky

9* Play 76ERS (+).

-Utah comes in off back-to-back blowout losses at home; expect a strong bounce back effort
-offense is shooting 37.9% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 36.2% shooting from 3
-Jazz defense only allows 100.3 points per game vs. offenses that average 106.9 points per game

-Houston is off back-to-back terrific games in which they won by 21 and 13 points; regress now
-offense is shooting 35.6% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 36.2% shooting from 3
-Rockets allow 46.4% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 46.1%

10* Play JAZZ (+).

-Boston was extremely fortunate to win Game 3 in overtime; line is clearly adjusted too low now
-offense is shooting 44.3% from the field on the road vs. defenses that give up 46.1% shooting
-Celtics are now 1-3 SU on the road in the Playoffs; 3 losses have come by 12.3 points per game

-Philadelphia is now 32-12 SU at home; off a blown win, have to expect a big bounce back
-offense is shooting 47.1% from the field at home vs. defenses that only give up 46% shooting
-76ers defense allows 33.5% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3

9* Play 76ERS (-).

-Houston bounced back with a strong performance in Game 3 as expected; repeat effort here
-offense is shooting 36.6% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 36.2% shooting from 3
-Rockets defense allows 102.9 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 106.1 ppg

-Utah still lost Game 3 by 21 points at home despite holding Houston to 30.6% from 3-point land
-offense is shooting 35.4% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 36.2% shooting from 3
-Jazz defense allows 36.5% shooting from three vs. offenses that only shoot 36% from three

10* Play ROCKETS (-).

-Toronto hits the road off back-to-back home losses; expect a strong bounce back as an underdog
-offense is shooting 47.2% from the field vs. defenses that give up 46.1% shooting from the field
-Raptors defense allows 35.8% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 36.3% from 3

-Cleveland has won the first two games after coming back from 14 and 9 point margins; letdown
-offense shot 41% (25-61) from 3 in their last two games; don't expect a repeat performance
-Cavs defense allows 47.9% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that only shoot 46% 

10* Play RAPTORS (+).

-Boston is off back-to-back excellent games in which they scored 225 points; regress now
-offense shot 45.1% (32-71) from 3 in their last two games; don't expect a repeat performance
-Celtics are 0-3 SU on the road in the Playoffs so far; lost those games by 12.3 points per game

-Philadelphia returns home down 2-0 in this series; 32-11 SU at home, so expect big bounce back
-offense is shooting 47.3% from the field at home vs. defenses that only give up 46% shooting
-76ers defense allows 33.7% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3

9* Play 76ERS (-).

-Houston was terrible in Game 2 on their home court; expect a strong bounce back effort here
-offense is shooting 36.7% from 3 on the road vs. defenses give up 36.2% shooting from 3
-Rockets defense allows 103.1 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 106.1 ppg

-Utah played a perfect Game 2 as expected; 5 players scored 15 points or more; regression
-offense shot 51.8% (43-83) from the field and 46.9% (15-32) from 3; don't expect a repeat here
-Jazz defense allows 36.6% shooting from three vs. offenses that only shoot 36% from three

10* Play ROCKETS (-).

-Cleveland overcame a bad spot and a 14-point deficit to win Game 1 in overtime; letdown now
-offense made 14 three’s and they were +15 points from beyond the arc; don’t expect a repeat
-Cavs defense allows 47.4% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46% from the field

-Toronto is now 37-8 SU at home; coming off a loss, expect a strong bounce back performance
-offense is shooting 47.2% from the field vs. defenses that give up 46.1% shooting from the field
-Raptors defense allows just 44% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 45.9%

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

-Utah comes in off a bad 14-point road loss in Game 1; expect a strong bounce back effort
-offense is shooting 37.7% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 36.2% shooting from 3
-Jazz defense only allows 100 points per game vs. offenses that average 106.7 points per game

-Houston is off back-to-back excellent games in which they won 18 and 14 points; regress now
-offense shot 46.1% (35-76) from 3 in their last two games; don't expect a repeat performance
-Rockets allow 46.3% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46.1% from the field

9* Play JAZZ (+).

-LA’s Clayton Kershaw projects to give up 2.2 earned runs with a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP 

-lefty projects to have a 10.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 5.3 strikeout/walk ratio

-Diamondbacks lineup has hit just .187 (34-182) with a .568 OPS against Kershaw in his career 

-Arizona starter Matt Koch projects to allow 2.8 earned runs with a 4.94 ERA and 1.46 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 6.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio

-Dodgers offense is in good current form; they’ve scored 35 total runs over their last six games

9* Play DODGERS (-1.5 runline).

-Cleveland just won Game 7 over Indiana at home on Sunday; grueling series; terrible spot here
-offense was aided by a very generous whistle in Game 7; shot 40 free throws; unlikely to repeat
-Cavs defense allows 47.4% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46% from the field

-Toronto returns home off an easy Game 6 win in Washington; 3 days of rest; expect strong effort
-offense is shooting 47.2% from the field vs. defenses that give up 46% shooting from the field
-Raptors defense allows just 44.1% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.9%

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

-Milwaukee played perfect at home in Game 6; got a complete team effort; expect regression
-offense shot 50.7% (38-75) from the field; Antetokounmpo scored 31 points; no repeat here
-Bucks defense allows 38.7% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 36.3% from 3

-Boston returns home off an ugly road loss; expect a strong bounce back effort tonight in Game 7
-offense is shooting 37.7% from three vs. defenses that only give up 36.3% shooting from three
-Celtics defense allows 100.6 points per game vs. offenses that average 106.2 points per game

10* Play CELTICS (-).

-Oklahoma City came back from a 15-point halftime deficit in Game 5; expect regression tonight
-offense is shooting 44.2% from the field on the road vs. defenses that give up 46% shooting
-Thunder defense allows 36.7% shooting from three vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from three

-Utah returns home off a bad road loss; expect a strong bounce back effort to end the series
-offense is shooting 46.6% from the field at home vs. defenses that only give up 46.1% shooting
-Jazz allow 96.8 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 106.7 points per game

10* Play JAZZ (-).

-Washington played perfect in Game 3 and came back from a 14-point deficit in Game 4; regress
-offense is shooting 45.6% from the field on the road vs. defenses that give up 46% shooting
-Wizards defense allows 47.3% shooting from the field on the road vs. offenses that shoot 46%

-Toronto returns home off back-to-back road losses; expect a strong bounce back effort tonight
-offense is shooting 47.3% from the field at home vs. defenses that only give up 46.1% shooting
-Raptors allow 102.2 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 106 points per game

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

-Milwaukee played perfect in Game 3 and Game 4; scored 220 points at home; regression now
-offense shot 54.6% (83-152) from the field and 46.4% (26-56) from 3 in those games; no repeat
-Bucks defense allows 38.9% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 36.4% from 3

-Boston returns home off back-to-back road losses; expect a strong bounce back effort tonight
-offense is shooting 37.7% from three vs. defenses that only give up 36.3% shooting from three
-Celtics defense allows 100.8 points per game vs. offenses that average 106.3 points per game

10* Play CELTICS (-).

-Houston was terrible in Game 3, but that was predictable; expect a strong bounce back effort
-offense is shooting 36.7% from 3 on the road vs. defenses give up 36.2% shooting from 3
-Rockets defense allows 103.2 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 106.2 ppg

-Minnesota played a perfect Game 3 as expected; 5 players scored 17 points or more; regression
-offense shot 50% (45-90) from the field and 55.6% (15-27) from 3; don't expect a repeat here
-Timberwolves defense allows 47.4% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46%

10* Play ROCKETS (-).

-Wizards were in a strong bounce-back spot in Game 3 after two losses
-situation now negative for Washington off blowout win, regression here
-Washington still just 2-7 SU in their past nine games and 4-11 SU last 15

-Toronto is the #1 seed and the best team in the conference, focused spot here
-Raptors excellent offensive team on road, averaging 111.0 ppg on 47.3% FG
-Toronto 3-0 SU/ATS in previous three meetings before Friday's flat spot

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

-Milwaukee was in a strong bounce-back spot in Game 3 and won as expected
-Bucks in a negative situation now; still inferior team in this series overall
-Line inflated based on recent results, but Celtics still 28-14 SU/ATS on road

-Boston holds solid defensive edge in this series; qualifies as defensive underdog
-Celtics allow just 100.8 points per game vs. opponents that average 106.3 ppg
-Bucks allow 106.8 ppg on 46.7% FG vs. opponents that average 106.1 ppg, 45.9%

9* Play CELTICS (+).

-Houston dominated Game 2 after squeaking by in Game 1; off 20-point win, expect a letdown  
-offense is shooting 45.7% from the field on the road vs. defenses that allow 46.1% shooting
-Rockets defense allows 46.2% shooting from the field on the road vs. offenses that shoot 46.1%

-Minnesota was a much better home team during the regular season; 30-11 SU; big bounce back
-offense is shooting 48.1% from the field at home vs. defenses that give up 46% shooting 
-Timberwolves allowing 41.8% shooting from the field and 31.9% from 3 over their last 5 games

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (+).

-Cleveland bounced back as expected in Game 2; still a bad team that is greatly overvalued
-offense shot 50.7% (37-73) from the field and hit 11 three’s and still only won by 3 points
-Cavaliers allow 47.4% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46% from the field

-Indiana has an excellent matchup; off a road loss and returning home, expect a big effort tonight
-offense is shooting 47.8% from the field at home vs. defenses that give up 46.1% shooting
-Pacers defense allows 34.7% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.3% from 3

9* Play PACERS.

-Miami’s Dillon Peters projects to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.98 ERA and 1.32 WHIP 

-lefty projects to have a 7.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.9 strikeout/walk ratio

-Brewers offense is in poor current form; they’ve scored 2 runs exact in 3 of their last 4 games

-Milwaukee’s Chase Anderson projects to allow 2.5 earned runs with a 4.17 ERA and 1.38 WHIP 

-righty is off back-to-back strong outings; 3 runs on 6 hits in 12.1 innings of work; regress now 

-Marlins lineup has hit .435 (10-23) with a terrific 1.350 OPS against Anderson in his career

9* Play MARLINS (+1.5 runline).

-Philadelphia regressed sharply in Game 2 off their perfect Game 1 performance; bounce back
-offense is shooting 47.1% from the field vs. defenses that give up 46.1% shooting from the field
-76ers defense allows 34.3% shooting from three vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from three

-Miami played much better in Game 2 as expected, but don’t anticipate a repeat performance
-offense is averaging 103.5 points per game vs. defenses that give up 106.6 points per game
-Heat defense allows 36.5% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3

10* Play 76ERS (-).

-Utah did not play up to their full potential in Game 1; expect a much better effort in Game 2
-offense is shooting 38.1% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 36.2% shooting from 3
-Jazz defense allows 100 points per game vs. offenses that average 106.7 points per game

-Oklahoma City got a complete team effort in Game 1; 5 players scored in double digits; regress
-offense is shooting 35.1% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 36.2% shooting from 3
-Thunder defense allows 37.3% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3

9* Play JAZZ (+).

-Washington was dominated in 3 of 4 quarters in Game 1; expect more of the same in Game 2
-offense is shooting 45.5% from the field on the road vs. defenses give up 46% shooting
-Wizards defense allows 47.1% shooting from the field on the road vs. offenses that shoot 46%

-Toronto has a cohesive team this season with the best bench in the league; big matchup edge
-offense averages 112.2 points per game at home vs. defenses that give up 106.5 points per game
-Raptors defense allows 44.1% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 45.9%

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

-San Antonio played terrible in Game 1; scored just 92 points; lowest of their last 12 games
-offense had averaged 106.2 points per game over their previous 11 games; bounce back coming
-Spurs defense allows 33.9% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3

-Golden State flipped the switch on in Game 1; came into that game on a 1-3 SU run; regress
-offense shot 54.3% (44-81) from the field and 45.5% (10-22) from 3; don’t expect a repeat here
-Warriors defense allows 107.3 points per game vs. offenses that average 106 points per game 

10* Play SPURS (+).

-Miami dominated the 1st quarter in Game 1; got crushed the last 36 minutes; bounce back here  
-offense is shooting 36.3% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that allow 36.2% shooting from 3
-Heat defense allows 44.7% shooting from the field on the road vs. offenses that shoot 46%

-Philadelphia played a perfect 3 quarters in Game 1; off that big, emotional win, letdown coming
-offense shot an incredible 64.3% (18-28) from 3-point land in Game 1; expect major regression
-76ers defense has given up 103 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games; poor current form

9* Play HEAT (+).

-Indiana had a sneaky good team during the regular season; excellent matchup here; tough out
-offense is shooting 47.2% from the field vs. defenses that give up 46% shooting from the field
-Pacers defense allows 35% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3

-Cleveland has had a tumultuous season; bad team chemistry forced an overhaul; overvalued
-offense is shooting 36.5% from 3 at home vs. defenses give up 36.2% shooting from 3
-Cavaliers defense allows 47.9% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 45.9%

9* Play PACERS (+).

-New Orleans won 48 games to Portland’s 49 wins so don't be fooled by the 6th seed vs. 3rd seed 
-offense is shooting 48.4% from the field vs. defenses that allow 46.1% shooting from the field
-Pelicans defense allows 33.5% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3

-Portland closed the regular season by going 1-4 SU over their last 5 games; bad current form
-offense is shooting 45.2% from the field vs. defenses that give up 46.1% shooting from the field
-Trail Blazers allow 36.9% shooting from 3 at home vs offenses that shoot 36.1% from 3

9* Play PELICANS (+).

-Washington has a bad matchup edge here; terrible bench vs. the best bench; bad team chemistry
-offense is shooting 45.5% from the field on the road vs. defenses give up 46% shooting
-Wizards defense allows 47% shooting from the field on the road vs. offenses that shoot 46%

-Toronto has a cohesive team this season; haven’t won a Game 1 yet; big effort coming here
-offense averages 112.2 points per game at home vs. defenses that give up 106.5 points per game
-Raptors defense allows 44% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 45.9%

10* Play RAPTORS (-).

-Washington can either finish in 6th, 7th, or 8th place; need to win to avoid the 8th seed
-offense is shooting 37.6% from three vs. defenses that allow 36.2% shooting from three
-Wizards allow 34.5% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3

-Orlando has incentive to lose to better their draft position; sitting their best players tonight

-offense is shooting 34.4% from 3 at home vs. defenses that allow 36.2% shooting from 3

-Magic defense allows 37.1% shooting from 3 at home vs offenses that shoot 36.3% from 3

10* Play WIZARDS (-).

-Charlotte lost to Indiana 123-117 on Sunday; quick revenge spot, want to end season with a win
-offense is shooting 37.0% from 3pt on the road vs. defenses that allow 36.1% shooting from 3pt
-Hornets' offense in excellent current form, averaging 116.3 points in their past nine games overall

-Indiana is locked into #5 seed in playoffs; they are resting their starters as this game means nothing
-offense shot 53.8% FG (50-for-93) on Sunday vs. the Hornets; regression now with backups playing
-Pacers' defense allows 46.4% shooting from the field vs offenses that shoot just 45.9% FG overall

10* Play HORNETS (+).

-New Orleans comes in off 3 straight wins where they scored 122 points or more; letdown spot now
-offense shot 51% (139-272) from the field and 43% (43-101) from 3pt in those games; regression due
-Pelicans' defense allows 110.7 points per game vs. offenses that average only 106.2 points per game

-Los Angeles is out of playoffs, so inflated line; likely rest nagging injuries; young guys will play hard
-offense is shooting 47.7% from the field at home vs. defenses that allow just 46.1% FG shooting
-Clippers' defense allows 35.0% shooting from 3pt at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3pt

10* Play CLIPPERS (+).

-Detroit is 8-2 SU over their last 10 games; average win coming by 13.4 points per game
-offense is shooting 37.1% from three vs. defenses that give up 36.2% shooting from three

-Pistons defense allows 103.7 points per game vs. offenses that average 106.5 points per game

-Memphis is just 3-27 SU over their last 30 games; expect another loss here; in tank mode
-offense is shooting 43.8% from the field at home vs. defenses that allow 46% shooting
-Grizzlies defense allows 36.9% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3

10* Play PISTONS (-).

-San Diego’s Bryan Mitchell projects to give up 3.0 earned runs with a 5.67 ERA and 1.60 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 5.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 1.5 strikeout/walk ratio

-Astros have hit .333 in a limited 12 at-bats with a strong .968 OPS against Mitchell in his career

-Houston’s Gerrit Cole is slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a 3.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 9.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 4.5 strikeout/walk ratio 

-Padres have hit just .203 (12-59) with a poor .582 OPS against Cole in his career

10* Play ASTROS (-1.5 runline).

-Denver has won 4 straight games after going just 2-4 over their previous 6 games; good form
-offense is shooting 37.2% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 36.2% shooting from 3

-Nuggets defense is in good form; they have given up just 200 total points in their last 2 games 

-Los Angeles is just 1-3 SU over their last 4 games; expect another loss here; in bad current form
-offense is shooting 35.6% from three vs. defenses that allow 36.3% shooting from three
-Clippers allow 108.5 points per game vs. offenses that only average 106.2 points per game 

9* Play NUGGETS (-).

-Dallas is just 2-9 SU over their last eleven games; team is tanking, so expect another loss here
-offense is shooting 44.6% from the field vs. defenses that allow 46.1% shooting from the field
-Mavericks allow 48.4% shooting from the field on the road vs. offenses that shoot 46.2%

-Detroit lost at home to Philadelphia on Wednesday; 24-15 SU at home, bounce back effort
-offense is shooting 37.9% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 36.1% shooting from 3

-Pistons defense allows 34.8% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3

10* Play PISTONS (-).

-Golden State won at OKC on Tuesday as 4-point underdogs; bad spot now changing time zones
-offense is missing most of it’s firepower because of injury; off a strong game, expect regression
-Warriors defense allows 109 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 106 ppg 

-Indiana returns home off a road loss in Denver; 26-13 SU at home, so expect a strong effort here
-offense is shooting 47.9% from the field at home vs. defenses that give up 46% shooting

-Pacers defense allows 34.5% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.1% from 3

10* Play PACERS (+).

-Miami is 3-1 over their last 4 games; lone loss came in overtime; in good current form
-offense is shooting 36% from three vs. defenses that give up 36.1% shooting from three

-Heat defense allows 44.7% shooting from the field on the road vs. offenses that shoot 46%

-Atlanta is in bad form; 4-17 SU over their last 21 games; most have been non-competitive losses
-offense is shooting 44.6% from the field vs. defenses that give up 46.1% shooting from the field
-Hawks defense allows 38.7% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3 

10* Play HEAT (-).

-Portland comes in off back-to-back double digit wins; day off yesterday; strong effort here
-offense is shooting 37.1% from three vs. defenses that give up 36.3% shooting from three

-Trail Blazers allow 44.7% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46.1% from the field

-Dallas is in tank mode; 1-8 SU over their last 9 games; expect more of the same once again
-offense is shooting 44.5% from the field vs. defenses that give up 46.1% shooting from the field
-Mavericks defense allows 46.7% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46.3% 

9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-).

-Baltimore’s Mike Wright projects to give up 3.0 earned runs with a 5.73 ERA and 1.53 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 6.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 2.0 strikeout/walk ratio

-Astros have hit .353 in a limited 17 at-bats with a strong .951 OPS against Wright in his career

-Houston’s Justin Verlander is slated to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.43 ERA and 1.11 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 12.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 5.1 strikeout/walk ratio 

-Orioles have hit just .227 (41-181) with a poor .666 OPS against Verlander in his career

9* Play ASTROS (-1.5 runline).

-Michigan is getting too many points here; my power ratings only make them a 6-point underdog
-offense is shooting 46.9% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.4% shooting from the field
-Wolverines allow 31.4% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 35.9% from 3

-Villanova has steamrolled thru their opponents so far in this tournament; off their best game too
-offense shot 55.4% (44-92) from the field and 45% (18-40) from 3 vs. Kansas; regression here
-Wildcats defense has faced 4 inefficient 3-point offenses in their 5 games; big step-up in class

10* Play MICHIGAN (+).

-Oklahoma City comes in on a 3-game losing streak; rested and ready; strong bounce back here
-offense averages 107.4 points per game vs. defenses that give up 106.3 points per game

-Thunder allow 45.8% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46.1% from the field

-New Orleans has also lost 3 straight games; defense is atrocious; expect struggles once again
-offense is shooting 35.2% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 36.3% shooting from 3
-Pelicans defense allows 112.8 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 106.2 ppg

10* Play THUNDER (-).

-Kansas has been battle tested in this tournament, and that’s a good thing coming into this game
-offense is shooting 40.3% from three vs. defenses that give up 34.5% shooting from three
-Jayhawks allow 30.8% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 35.6% from 3

-Villanova has steamrolled thru their opponents so far in this tournament; not a good thing now
-offense shot an incredible 47.8% (44-92) from 3 in their first 3 games; unsustainable numbers
-Wildcats defense has faced 3 inefficient offenses in their 4 games; big step-up in class here 

10* Play KANSAS (+).

-Loyola Chicago gets a poor matchup here; opponent also likes a slow pace, negating their edge
-offense shot 57.4% (27-47) from the field and 50% (9-18) from 3 vs. Kansas State; won’t repeat
-Ramblers defense is stepping way up in class for this game; faced 3 inefficient offenses so far

-Michigan isn’t laying enough points here; my power ratings make them a solid 6-point favorite
-offense is shooting 47% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.5% shooting from the field
-Wolverines defense allows 63.1 points per game vs. offenses that average 75.1 points per game

9* Play MICHIGAN (-).

-Los Angeles played 7 of 8 games on the road; pit stop home game; 2nd road game since
-offense is shooting 35.8% from three vs. defenses that give up 36.4% shooting from three
-Clippers defense allows 109.1 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 106.3 ppg

-Portland returns home off an ugly road loss at Memphis; lost last 2 home games; Lillard returns
-offense is shooting 38.4% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 36.3% shooting from 3
-Trail Blazers defense allows 44.7% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46.2%

9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-).

-Houston’s Dallas Keuchel is slated to give up 2.1 earned runs with a 3.66 ERA and 1.24 WHIP 

-lefty projects to have a 8.3 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.1 strikeout/walk ratio 

-Rangers have hit just .227 (68-299) with a poor .612 OPS against Keuchel in his career

-Texas starter Doug Fister projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a 4.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP 

-righty projects to have a 6.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 2.2 strikeout/walk ratio

-Astros have hit a respectable .294 (15-51) while scoring 6 runs against Fister in his career

10* Play ASTROS (-1.5 runline).

-Washington’s Max Scherzer projects to give up 2.1 earned runs with a 3.64 ERA and 1.11 WHIP 

-righty is slated to have a 10.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 4.1 strikeout/walk ratio 

-Reds’ lineup has hit just .220 (11-50) with a weak .728 OPS against Scherzer in his career

-Cincinnati’s Homer Bailey projects to give up 2.8 earned runs with a 5.20 ERA and 1.43 WHIP 

-righty was terrible at home last season; went 1-6 with a 7.90 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 41 innings 

-Nationals have hit a terrific .435 (20-46) with an insane 1.144 OPS against Bailey in his career

9* Play NATIONALS (-1.5 runline).

-Dallas comes in off a win last night; 4 of their previous 5 losses by 8 points or less; still trying
-offense is shooting 36.7% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 36.3% shooting from 3
-Mavs defense allows 105.2 points per game vs. offenses that average 106.7 points per game

-Los Angeles returns home after playing 5 of their last 6 games on the road; bad scheduling spot
-offense is shooting 33% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 36.4% shooting from 3
-Lakers defense allows 110 points per game vs. offenses that average 106.5 points per game

9* Play MAVERICKS (+).

-Boston has won 4 straight games after losing 3 of their previous 4 games; on a current upswing
-offense is shooting 38.8% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that allow 36.3% shooting from 3
-Celtics defense allows 43.6% shooting from the field on the road vs. offenses that shoot 46.1%

-Utah is just 2-2 SU over their last 4 games after winning their previous 9 games; trending down
-offense is shooting 35% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 36.3% shooting from 3
-Jazz defense is allowing 36.6% shooting from three vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from three

9* Play CELTICS (+).

-New York is 3-3 SU over their last 6 games, but one loss came by 4 points and the other in OT 
-offense is shooting 46.5% from the field vs. defenses that give up 46% shooting from the field
-Knicks defense is allowing 45.8% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.9%

-Philadelphia has won 7 straight games while scoring 118 points or more in 6 games; letdown
-offense has scored 361 points in their last 3 games; 41 made three’s; unsustainable numbers                      -76ers defense is not in good form; allowed 104 point or more in 5 of their last 7 games

10* Play KNICKS (+).

-Milwaukee has won 2 straight games after losing 3 of their previous 4 games; on an upswing
-offense is shooting 48% from the field vs. defenses that give up 46.1% shooting from the field
-Bucks defense allows 106.2 points per game vs. offenses that average 106.1 points per game

-Los Angeles returns home after playing 7 of their last 8 games on the road; bad scheduling spot
-offense is shooting 35.1% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 36.4% shooting from 3
-Clippers defense allows 108.7 points per game vs. offenses that average 106.4 points per game

9* Play BUCKS (+).

-Mississippi State just won at Baylor and at Louisville; impressive wins; line is too high here
-offense is shooting 46.7% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.2% shooting from the field
-Bulldogs defense allows just 41.6% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 44.3%

-Penn State had a much easier path to New York with wins over Notre Dame and Marquette
-offense scored 73 and 85 points in last 2 games; scored 69 points or less in 5 of their previous 6 
-Nittany Lions defense much worse on the road; allow 4.7 ppg more and 2.5% higher in shooting  

9* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (+).

-Cleveland has won 4 straight games while scoring 120 points or more in each game; regress
-offense has shot 52.2% (181-347) from the field and hit 50 three’s in last 4 games; unsustainable
-Cavs defense allows 47.3% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.9% from the field

-Miami returns home off back-to-back road losses; 22-13 SU at home; strong bounce back here
-offense is shooting 36.7% from 3 at home vs. defenses that give up 36.2% shooting from 3
-Heat allow 102.9 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 106.3 points per game

10* Play HEAT (+).

-Duke has a terrific matchup edge here; zone defense combined with a solid and efficient offense
-offense is shooting 37.7% from three vs. defenses that only give up 34.8% shooting from three
-Blue Devils defense allows just 40.4% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.1%

-Kansas has faced 3 opponents that they dominated in terms of talent; big step-up in class here 
-offense struggles in slow-paced games, and Duke’s new found zone defense will cause them fits
-Jayhawks defense is poor away from home; they give up 71.4 points per game this season

10* Play DUKE (-).

-Florida State has been very impressive in their 3 tournament games; great speed and athleticism
-offense is shooting 47.2% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.3% shooting from the field
-Seminoles defense allows just 41.7% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 44.9%

-Michigan played way above their level in their 99-72 win over Texas A&M team; regress here
-offense shot 61.9% (39-63) from the field and 58.3% (14-24) from 3-point land; can’t repeat 
-Wolverines defense faced 3 slow-footed teams so far in the tournament; big step-up in speed

9* Play FLORIDA STATE (+).

-Chicago is in serious tank mode; they’ve lost their last 3 games by 13 points or more; same here
-offense is shooting 43.7% from the field vs. defenses that give up 46% shooting from the field
-Bulls defense allows 112.8 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 106.5 ppg

-Detroit returns home from a 6-game road trip where they went just 2-4 SU; big bounce back
-offense is shooting 37.8% from 3 at home vs. defenses that allow 36.3% shooting from 3
-Pistons defense is in good form; held last 3 opponents to 90 points or less in regulation time

9* Play PISTONS (-).

-Texas Tech is just 4-5 SU and 1-7-1 ATS over their last 9 games; not in good form despite wins 
-offense has been poor on the road this season; average 4.6 ppg less and shoot 2.4% worse
-Red Raiders perimeter defense can be had; they gave up 33.9% shooting from 3 on the road

-Purdue is without Isaac Haas, but they played without him against Butler; expect a better effort
-offense is shooting 42.1% from three vs. defenses that give up 35% shooting from three
-Boilermakers defense allows 65.4 points per game vs offenses that average 73.4 points per game  

10* Play PURDUE (-).

-Los Angeles will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights; 6 of last 7 games on the road; bad spot
-offense is shooting 35.3% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 36.4% shooting from 3
-Clippers defense allows 109.5 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 106.4 ppg

-Indiana returns home off a road loss; 24-13 SU at home this season; expect a big bounce back
-offense is shooting 47.9% from the field at home vs. defenses that allow 46.1% shooting
-Pacers defense only allows 34.3% from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.2% from 3

9* Play PACERS (-).

-Clemson has a nice matchup edge here; slow pace combined with a solid and efficient defense
-offense is shooting 36.8% from three vs. defenses that only give up 34.6% shooting from three
-Tigers defense allows just 40.4% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.2%

-Kansas is laying too many points here; my power ratings only make them a 3.5-point favorite
-offense struggles in slow-paced games; 1-3 SU when held to less than 70 points; lone win by 4
-Jayhawks defense is poor away from home; they give up 71.2 points per game this season

9* Play CLEMSON (+).

-Kentucky is laying way too many points here; terrible matchup while stepping way up in class
-offense struggles mightily in slow-paced games; 2-8 SU when held to less than 70 points
-Wildcats defense is average at best; given up 71 points or more in 9 of their last 12 games

-Kansas State has a big matchup edge here; very slow pace combined with their strong defense
-offense is shooting 47.6% from the field on the road vs. defenses that give up 43.9% shooting
-Wildcats defense allows just 42.3% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.3%

10* Play KANSAS STATE (+).

-Texas A&M comes in off an upset win of North Carolina; slow pace here will be their undoing
-offense is only shooting 33.1% from three vs. defenses that give up 34.3% shooting from three
-Aggies defense looks a lot better because of their recent games; expect major regression here  

-Michigan struggling against Houston was expected; get a much better matchup here; big effort
-offense is shooting 46.7% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.5% shooting from the field
-Wolverines defense gives up 63.1 points per game vs. defenses that average 75 points per game  

9* Play MICHIGAN (-).

-Philadelphia hits the road after 3 straight home wins where they scored 347 points; bad spot
-offense has shot 47.3% from the field and 39.1% from 3 over their last 5 games; regress here
-76ers defense is in poor current form; allowed 105 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games

-Orlando will play their 4th straight home game; lost last 2 games by single digits; big effort
-offense is shooting 46% from the field at home vs. defenses that also give up 46% shooting
-Magic defense allows 46% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 46.1%

9* Play MAGIC (+).

-Western Kentucky quietly has 26 wins on the season; line is too high based on my power ratings
-offense is shooting 49.6% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.6% shooting from the field
-Hilltoppers defense allows just 42.9% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.4%

-Oklahoma State had a negative efficiency margin in conference play this season; bad favorite
-offense shoots just 43.3% from the field vs. defenses that allow 43.6% shooting from the field 
-Cowboys defense allows 36.6% shooting from three vs. offenses that shoot 35.7% from three

10* Play WESTERN KENTUCKY (+).

-Oklahoma City coming off SU road dog win at Toronto; regression spot now as road favorite
-offense is shooting 44.6% from the field on road vs. defenses that give up 46.2% FG shooting
-Thunder defense allows 37.0% shooting from 3pt range vs. offenses that shoot 36.3% from 3pt

-Boston returns home off an ugly 19-point road loss at New Orleans; expect a strong effort now
-offense is shooting 37.4% from 3pt vs. defenses that give up 36.3% shooting from 3pt range
-Celtics' defense only allows 43.7% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 46.2% FG

9* Play CELTICS (+).

-Toronto hits the road after high-profile home loss vs. OKC; letdown spot now as a big favorite
-offense is shooting 35.5% from 3pt on road vs. defenses that give up 36.3% shooting from 3pt
-Raptors' defense is in poor current form; allowed 102 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games

-Orlando will play their 3rd straight home game; they’ve had 3 days off; big scheduling edge
-offense is shooting 46.2% from the field at home vs. defenses that give up 46.0% FG shooting
-Magic defense allows 46.0% shooting from the field at home vs. offenses that shoot 46.0% FG

10* Play MAGIC (+).

-Washington is just 5-8 SU away from home this season; just won as a home underdog; bad spot
-offense is only shooting 29.7% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that allow 35% shooting from 3 
-Huskies defense is in poor current form; allowed 72 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games

-St. Mary’s got snubbed from the NCAA tournament; they are on a NIT mission; big effort here
-offense is shooting 51.7% from the field vs. defenses that give up 44.6% shooting from the field
-Gaels allow just 59.8 points per game at home vs. offenses that average 71.8 points per game

9* Play ST. MARY’S (-).

-Denver comes in off an ugly loss in Memphis; day off since; expect a big bounce back effort
-offense is shooting 47% from the field vs. defenses that give up 46% shooting from the field
-Nuggets defense has held Miami’s offense in check; just 104.3 ppg over their last 3 meetings

-Miami returns home after playing a 3-game West Coast road trip; bad spot off that travel
-offense averages 102.5 points per game vs. defenses that give up 106.5 points per game
-Heat defense allows 37.6% shooting from 3 at home vs. offenses that shoot 36.4% from 3

10* Play NUGGETS (+).

-Marshall pulled a big upset of Wichita State on Friday; don’t expect a repeat performance here
-offense has struggled mightily vs. in-state rival’s defense; 68 points or less in last 5 meetings
-Thundering Herd allow 81.2 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 73.9 ppg

-West Virginia beat Murray State easily on Friday; their relentless press will be the difference
-offense is averaging 79.8 points per game vs. defenses that only give up 71 points per game
-Mountaineers defense only allows 42.4% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.4%

10* Play WEST VIRGINIA (-).

-UMBC shocked the world in their upset win over Virginia; off that win, expect a major letdown
-offense is shooting 43.3% from the field on the road vs. defenses that allow 45% shooting
-Retrievers allow 35.2% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 33.7% from 3

-Kansas State handled Creighton without much energy exerted on Friday; expect a strong effort
-offense is shooting 48% from the field on the road vs. defenses that give up 43.9% shooting
-Wildcats defense allows just 42.6% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.3%

9* Play KANSAS STATE (-).

-Nevada now owns 28 wins on the season; very strong perimeter team on both ends of the court
-offense is shooting 41.9% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 34.9% shooting from 3
-Wolf Pack allow 31.1% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 35.4% from 3  

-Cincinnati was unimpressive in their win over Georgia State on Friday; step-up in class here
-offense is shooting 33.2% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 34.7% shooting from 3
-Bearcats defense has faced a string of slow-paced and inefficient offenses recently; big test now

9* Play NEVADA (+).

-Houston is a very dangerous team, and they get a very favorable matchup for tonight’s game
-offense is shooting 38.7% from three vs. defenses that give up 34.6% shooting from three
-Cougars defense allows just 32.6% shooting from three vs. offenses that shoot 35.1% from three

-Michigan is a perimeter orientated team on offense, and this is a terrible matchup for them
-offense faced terrible 3-point defenses this season; their opponents allowed 35.2% shooting
-Wolverines defense gave up 43.9% shooting from the field on the road, so they can be had here

9* Play HOUSTON (+).

-Florida is back to playing their best; 4-1 SU over their last 5 games after losing 3 straight games
-offense is shooting 38.6% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 33.8% shooting from 3
-Gators defense allows 69.2 points per game vs. offenses that average 75.1 points per game  

-Texas Tech is just 3-5 SU and 0-7-1 ATS over their last 8 games; team is in poor current form 
-offense has been poor on the road this season; average 4.7 ppg less and shoot 2.4% worse
-Red Raiders perimeter defense can be had; they gave up 34.4% shooting from 3 on the road

9* Play FLORIDA (+).

-Ohio State was embarrassed by 27-points versus Gonzaga earlier this season; lots of motivation
-offense is shooting 48.1% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.5% shooting from the field
-Buckeyes defense only gives up 41.4% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 45.5%

-Gonzaga had more trouble with UNC Greensboro than they should have; step-up in class now
-offense has played slightly worse away from home this season; average 2.8 points per game less
-Zags defense allows 35.5% shooting from the 3 on the road vs offenses that shoot 35.4% from 3

9* Play OHIO STATE (+).

-Loyola Chicago now has 29 wins on the season; they have a terrific offense and a strong defense
-offense is shooting 50.6% from the field vs. defenses that give up 43.4% shooting from the field
-Ramblers defense allows 61.9 points per game on the road vs. offenses that average 70.7 ppg   

-Tennessee had a very easy draw in the opening round; big step-up in class vs. a half-court team
-offense is shooting 42.6% from the field on the road vs. defenses that give up 42.8% shooting
-Vols defense is off one of their best performances of the season; expect regression off that game

9* Play LOYOLA CHICAGO (+).

-Buffalo had a great matchup vs. Arizona and their win wasn’t a shock at all; big step-up here
-offense shot 54.8% (34-62) from the field and 50% (15-30) from 3-point land; major regression
-Bulls defense gives up 76.6 points per game vs. offenses that average 74.6 points per game

-Kentucky was very impressive in their win over a smart Davidson team; get their preferred style
-offense is shooting 47.1% from the field vs. defenses that give up 42.2% shooting from the field
-Wildcats defense allows 40.3% shooting from the field on the road vs. offenses that shoot 45.2%

10* Play KENTUCKY (-).

-Florida State underperformed greatly over their conference schedule; negative efficiency margin
-offense is shooting 32.5% from 3 on the road vs. defenses that give up 34.8% shooting from 3
-Seminoles defense allows 36.4% shooting from three vs. offenses that shoot 35.1% from three 

-Missouri will be without suspended Jordan Barnett, but Michael Porter returns from injury
-offense is shooting 38.5% from three vs. offenses that give up 33.4% shooting from three
-Tigers defense allows 40.7% shooting from the field vs. offenses that shoot 44.4% from the field

9* Play MISSOURI (+).

-New Mexico State quietly went 28-5 this season; they are terrific on both ends of the court
-offense is shooting 46% from the field vs. defenses that give up 44.7% shooting from the field
-Aggies defense allows 63.8 points per game vs. offenses that average 72.2 points per game  

-Clemson went just 2-6 SU when held to less than 70 points this season; bad matchup for them 
-offense averages 69.9 points per game on the road vs. defenses that allow 71.2 points per game
-Tigers defense allows 39% shooting from 3 on the road vs. offenses that shoot 35.9% from 3

10* Play NEW MEXICO STATE (+).