Chicago is down 0-2 in this series, but they could very well be up 2-0.  The Bulls took a lead into the fourth quarter of both games, but they played terrible over the final 12 minutes of each game and handed Washington a pair of wins.  In Games 1 and 2, Chicago out-scored Washington 150-142 over the first three quarters.  In the fourth quarter and overtime, the Wizards out-scored the Bulls 61-42.  Chicago’s defense gave up 102 points in Game 1 and 101 points in Game 2 and allowing over 100 points in something the Bulls don’t do too often.  In fact, Chicago has allowed more than 100 points just 18 times in 84 games this season.  Off back-to-back poor defensive efforts, we expect the Bulls to play exceptional defense tonight.  In three regular season meetings, Chicago held Washington to just 92 points per game, including a 78-point output on the Wizards’ home floor earlier this month.  

Washington is fortunate to be in the position they are, and the fact that they are up 2-0 in this series is definitely a shock.  The Wizards may be a tad overconfident now, and the pointspread is certainly too high considering the circumstances.  When Chicago played at Washington earlier this month, the Bulls were only 2.5-point road underdogs.  There’s no reason the Wizards should be laying more points in this spot, especially in a playoff game.  Washington has been a better road team this season as they own 24 wins away from home and only 22 wins on their home court.  The Wizards shot way above expectation in the first two games; they hit 48.0% (74-154) from the field and 38.2% (13-34) from three-point land.  Chicago’s defense only gives up 43.2% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land.  It’s highly unlikely the Wizards can repeat their performances from Game 1 and 2 tonight, especially against a focused Bulls’ defense.  We’ll take the points with a motivated and hungry Chicago team tonight as they get themselves back in this series in a game they should win outright.

10* Play BULLS (+).

Golden State and Los Angeles are tied at one game apiece as the series changes locations.  The Warriors won Game 1 109-105, but they were crushed in Game 2 by 40 points (138-98).  That was an embarrassing loss for Golden State, and with tonight’s game being played on their home court, we expect a strong bounce back effort.  Prior to their win on Monday night, Los Angeles was just 3-4 SU over their previous seven games.  The Clippers couldn’t have played any better than they did as they shot 56.6% (47-83) from the field and 48.0% (12-25) from three-point land.  They were also phenomenal from the free throw line as they hit 91.4% (32-35) of their attempts.  Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to repeat that outstanding performance, especially since their level of play versus playoff teams since the All-Star break was not any good.  Los Angeles went just 6-4 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 13th worse defense during that span.  The Clippers held Golden State to 6.2 points below their season average, and that’s not going to happen in back-to-back games.

The Warriors were playing some of their best basketball of the season prior to their Game 2 loss.  The Warriors were 11-5 over their previous sixteen games and 21-10 over their previous thirty-one games.  Golden State’s offense is still in tremendous form despite their poor effort on Monday night.  The Warriors are averaging 114 points per game over their last five games while shooting 47.5% from the field and 38.5% from three-point land.  In six games versus the Clippers this season, Golden State is averaging 106 points per game.  After the All-Star break, Golden State went 8-6 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 5th best defense.  Their poor performance in Game 2 can be forgotten because the Warriors are a much better defensive team than they showed in that game.  Golden State went 2-0 versus the Clippers at home this season, and since they come into this game off an ugly 40-point defeat, we’ll take the points with the motivated home underdog on Thursday night.

10* Play WARRIORS (+).

Washington won Game 1 on Sunday night 102-93 after out-scoring Chicago 30-18 in the fourth quarter.  The Wizards shot the ball well in that game as they hit 48.6% (36-74) from the field.  Washington was also quite aggressive as they got to the free throw line 35 times which was nine more attempts than Chicago.  All five starters scored 13 points or more.  Chicago only shot 42.0% (34-81) from the field and an ugly 25.0% (5-20) from three-point land.  Despite that, Washington still trailed by 3 points heading into the fourth quarter.  The Wizards simply won the final 12 minutes, but they’ll be hard-pressed to stay competitive in Game 2 tonight.  Washington is a team that needs to play fast while scoring a lot of points to be at their best.  The Wizards have been held to less than 100 points 17 times on the road this season; they went just 6-11 SU in those games.  The Wizards will not get their preferred fast pace tonight in Chicago, especially since the Bulls are off a poor defensive game.

Chicago was playing good basketball at home prior to their loss on Sunday night.  The Bulls were 14-4 SU over their previous 18 home games, and coming off a disappointing loss, we expect the Bulls to play with max effort tonight.  Chicago’s defense was poor, and it was just the 17th time this season they’ve given up more than 100 points.  The Bulls tend to bounce back strong off a poor defensive effort, especially at home.  Chicago is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS at home after allowing 100 points or more with their seven wins coming by an average of 15.4 points per game.  Chicago has won 14 straight home games by 7 points or more, so there’s still a lot of value with the Bulls on their home court, even with tonight’s posted line being higher than Game 1.  We’ll back the motivated home team in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play BULLS (-).

Colorado beat San Francisco 8-2 last night, and now they’ll start Franklin Morales in Game 2 of the series tonight.  Morales is back in the Colorado rotation after Brett Anderson’s injury forced his return.  Morales is coming off a winning effort in San Diego where he allowed 1 run and four hits in six innings of work.  He’ll be facing a Giants’ lineup that has scored a total of 10 runs in their last five games against left-handed starters this season.  This is an offense that is hitting just .190 while scoring only 2 runs per game over their last seven games.

San Francisco’s Madison Bumgarner has not been himself this season.  He has given up 29 hits in just over 20 innings of work for the Giants.  He did beat the Rockies at home back on April 11th, but he allowed 4 runs and nine hits in six innings.  He lost his last start in Coors Field in August of last year.  Carlos Gonzalez (12-33), Jordan Pacheco (9-25), Wilin Rosario (7-21), Josh Rutledge (7-16) and Troy Tulowitzki (6-18) all hit Bumgarner well.  Colorado is hitting .276 against left-handed starters this season, and they are scoring 7.7 runs per game at home.  There’s good value in taking Colorado on the run line in this game on Tuesday night.

9* Play ROCKIES (+1.5 runline).

Texas travels to Oakland tonight for the first of a 3-game series with the Athletics.  The Rangers’ Yu Darvish has lost both of his starts in Oakland.  Overall, Darvish is 1-6 with a 4.30 ERA in seven career starts against the A’s.  Daric Barton (4-7), Alberto Callaspo (7-18), John Jaso (4-13), Brandon Moss (5-15) and Eric Sogard (3-10) have good numbers against Darvish.  Oakland has won 10 of their last 12 games, and they are hitting the ball really well right now.  The A’s are 6-3 at home where they are scoring 4.3 runs per game.  The Rangers’ bullpen has a 7.02 ERA on the road while blowing two of their three save chances this season.

Oakland’s Dan Straily has pitched well this season, and he has a good history versus the Rangers.  He is 3-1 in six career starts against Texas, winning his last two starts against them.  Straily has held Texas to just 15 hits in 77 at-bats with six of those hits coming from Adrian Beltre who is out of the lineup.  Texas has lost four of their six road games this season, and they’ve had their problems in Oakland.  The A’s have won 11 of their last 18 home games in this series.  There’s a lot of value in taking Oakland on the run line in this game on Monday night.

9* Play ATHLETICS (+1.5 runline).

Memphis was in a terrible spot for Game 1, and that showed in their play.  The Grizzlies were playing hard down the stretch just to make the playoffs, and their final regular season game against Dallas went to overtime before the Grizzlies won and got the #7 seed.  Memphis was playing on tired legs on Saturday night; they got out-scored 56-34 in the first half before losing 100-86.  Off that blowout loss, we expect the Grizzlies to bounce back strong tonight.  Memphis has been tremendous when playing off a SU loss this season.  The Grizzlies are 23-9 SU in this situation, and an incredible 25-5-2 ATS based on tonight’s posted line.  Since the All-Star break, Memphis is 8-1 SU and 8-0-1 ATS when playing off a SU loss.  The Grizzlies’ defense was poor in Game 1, but they only gave up 94.6 points per game on 45.0% shooting from the field and 35.4% shooting from three-point land on the season.  Memphis’ defense will play much better tonight.

Oklahoma City won by 14 points, but their overall play wasn’t that impressive.  The Thunder capitalized on making free throws as they hit 87.5% (28-32) from the line.  Other than that, the Thunder did not do anything else well.  Memphis out-scored Oklahoma City 50-34 inside the paint, and they made 33 field goals to the Thunder’s 34 made field goals.  Memphis was awful from the free throw line as they only hit 58.1% (18-31) from the line.  The Grizzlies were also terrible from three-point land as they shot an ugly 18.2% (2-11) from beyond the arc.  Oklahoma City can’t stop Memphis inside, and the Grizzlies will shoot the ball much better from the perimeter and make their free throws; they shot 73.8% from the line this season.  We’ll take the points with Memphis as we expect this game to come right down to the wire.

10* Play GRIZZLIES (+).

Portland comes into the playoffs playing some terrific basketball.  The Trail Blazers are 9-1 SU over their last ten games; they were just 4-9 SU over their previous 13 games.  The difference came when LeMarcus Aldridge returned to the court from injury.  His presence gives Portland an interior force on both ends of the court which makes the Blazers an extremely difficult team to beat, especially by margin.  Portland’s offense has been outstanding over their last five games as they’ve averaged 108 points per game on 46.8% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land.  In four games versus Houston this season, the Blazers scored 101 points or more in every game while averaging 109.5 points per game.  Portland’s offense will have success once again tonight, especially since the Rockets have one of the worst defenses in the playoffs.

Houston is not in good form right now.  The Rockets are just 5-6 SU and 3-8 ATS over their last eleven games.  Three of those losses came versus playoff teams, and four of their five wins came by 7 points or less.  Since the All-Star break, Houston only went 6-8 SU in 14 games versus playoff teams.  The Rockets had a negative efficiency margin in those games.  Houston has the 14th worst defense since the All-Star break, so their losing record was due to poor play.  Portland also had a losing record versus playoff teams after the All-Star break; the Blazers went just 7-8.  However, Portland had a positive efficiency margin while having the 4th best offense and the 6th best defense.  Clearly, the Rockets deserved a losing record while the Blazers deserved a winning record.  These two teams are much closer than the pointspread indicates, and there’s simply a lot of value with the underdog.  We’ll take the points with Portland on Sunday night as we expect this game to come right down to the wire.

9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (+).

Golden State is playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.  The Warriors are 10-5 SU over their last fifteen games and 20-10 over their last thirty games.  Four of Golden State’s last five losses have come by single digits which means they had a legitimate shot at winning.  Golden State’s offense is in tremendous form right now as they are averaging 114.8 points per game over their last five games.  The Warriors are shooting 48.1% from the field and 40.7% from three-point land.  In four games versus the Clippers this season, Golden State averaged 107.3 points per game while going 2-2 SU in those games.

Los Angeles is just 3-3 SU over their last six games.  The Clippers were 17-2 SU over their previous nineteen games.  All three of their recent wins came against non-playoff teams while their three losses came to Portland, Oklahoma City, and Dallas who all made the playoffs.  Going back to the All-Star break, Los Angeles is just 6-4 SU versus playoff teams while possessing the 13th worse defense during that span.  To compare, Golden State went 8-6 SU versus playoff teams after the All-Star break while possessing the 5th best defense.  That’s a significant difference that greatly favors the Warriors, especially since they are getting a significant amount of points in this game.  These two teams are much closer than perceived, and the pointspread has been over-inflated since Golden State is now without Andrew Bogut.  The Warriors still hold the defensive edge and we’ll take the points with the Warriors in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play WARRIORS (+).

Brooklyn has shown a big difference in their home and road splits since the start of 2014.  At home, the Nets have been virtually unbeatable, racking up an incredible 22-4 record.  On the road, the Nets have been mediocre at best while going just 12-13.  When the Nets lose on the road, they tend to lose big as nine of their thirteen losses have come by 7 points or more.  Six of the losses were complete blowouts in which they lost by 16 points or more.  Brooklyn’s average road loss in 2014 has come by a whopping 14.3 points per game.  The Nets have lost their last two road games, and their defense allowed a total of 229 points on 54.3% (89-164) shooting from the field and 43.2% (19-44) shooting from three-point land.  Brooklyn also fouls too much, and those two opponents took 47 free throw attempts.

Toronto has played terrific basketball since the All-Star break, especially when facing winning teams that also made the playoffs.  The Raptors only went 6-6 SU in 12 games, but they had a positive efficiency margin in those game.  Toronto has the sixth best offense and the third best defense since the All-Star break, so they should have had a better record than 6-6.  To compare, Brooklyn went 8-5 versus playoff teams, but they had a negative efficiency margin while having the 13th best offense and the 7th best defense.  Clearly, the Nets deserved a losing record while the Raptors deserved a winning record.  Toronto has been strong at home all season; they are 26-15 on their home floor.  The Raptors crushed Brooklyn 96-80 on this court back in January, and while we do not expect that big of a win, we do expect a Toronto win and cover in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play RAPTORS (-).

Chicago picked up a 2-1 win on Tuesday night against Boston.  Clay Buchholz gets the start for the Red Sox tonight.  He has allowed 10 runs and 20 hits in two starts, striking out nine while walking none.  Buchholz has struggled in his first two starts, and he will struggle again tonight, especially since this game is on the road.  The White Sox have a much improved lineup, and they are 6-2 at home while putting up 6.1 runs per game.

John Danks won his last start for the White Sox in a 7-3 win over the Indians.  Danks has allowed 6 runs and 11 hits in his last two outings while striking out 10.  Mike Napoli (6-27), Dustin Pedroia (2-17) and Grady Sizemore (3-21) have had their problems with Danks.  Napoli may not be available for this game after dislocating his finger in Tuesday night’s game.  Pedroia is also a bit banged up (wrist); the Red Sox lineup simply has issues right now.  Boston has scored just 12 runs in five games on their current road trip.  There’s a lot of value in taking Chicago on the run line in this game on Wednesday night.

9* Play WHITE SOX (+1.5 runline).