Wyoming has a strong 8-5 record this season, but the Cowboys played an extremely easy schedule.  In fact, Wyoming played the 54th easiest schedule this season, and they got most of their wins at home.  Wyoming went 6-1 SU at home, but just 2-4 SU on the road where they lost by an average of 15.5 points per game.  The Cowboys had solid offensive numbers; they averaged 37.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play.  However, Wyoming played a weak slate of opposing defenses that gave up 29 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Cowboys are now taking a major step-up in defensive class against BYU in this game as the Cougars’ defense only gives up 19.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.     

BYU went 8-4 in the regular season, but they could have had a much better record as all four of their losses came by a combined 8 points with each loss coming by 3 points or less.  The Cougars lost quarterback Taysom Hill in their season finale, but Tanner Mangum has plenty of experience while filling in for the often injured Hill over the last couple of seasons.  BYU’s offense won’t skip a beat with Mangum under center, and most say he’s a much better passer than Hill, so the Cougars will do what they’ve done all year.  Overall, BYU’s offense is averaging 30.0 points per game, and they will face a Wyoming defense that allowed 42.5 points per game on a whopping 7.2 yards per play on the road this season.  We’ll lay the points with BYU in this game on Wednesday night.  

9* Play BYU (-).

Sacramento will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home to beat Portland 126-121 last night.  The Kings went into that game off a 3-game road trip, and in fact, Sacramento had played nine of their previous eleven games on the road.  They are now in a terrible scheduling spot since they are back on the road once again while playing on a back-to-back set in the thin air and altitude of Utah.  The Kings exerted a lot of energy in their comeback win last night, and in fact, four players logged 29 minutes or more.  Their best player, DeMarcus Cousins, played over 40 minutes while scoring 55 points.  Overall, Sacramento shot 55.6% (40-72) from the field and 43.5% (10-23) from three-point land.  The King’s offense is unlikely to match that production tonight since they only average 99.3 points per game on 43.3% shooting from the field and 32.6% shooting from three-point land on the road. 

Utah also played last night, but they got embarrassed by 30 points (104-74) by the Golden State Warriors.  Off that woeful performance, we expect the Jazz to bounce back strong tonight, especially since they’ll be playing at home where they are 10-5 SU on the season.  As noted above, Utah is catching Sacramento at the perfect time, and it doesn’t hurt that the Kings are just 5-11 SU on the road this season.  Utah’s offense has been much better at home this season; the Jazz are averaging 101.1 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field and 38.2% shooting from three-point land.  Utah just beat Sacramento 104-84 eleven days ago in a similar situation, so we’ll lay the points with the Jazz in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play JAZZ (-).

Kentucky comes into tonight’s game with a 10-1 record, and the Wildcats certainly look like the most talented team in the country.  Kentucky is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  However, the Wildcats are not going to get their preferred pace in this game against their in-state rival.  Kentucky has scored 87 points or more in ten of their eleven games, but their point total tonight is going to be significantly lower.  The Wildcats just scored 103 points on North Carolina on Saturday, but the Tar Heels are also a team that prefers an up-tempo game.  That won’t be the case tonight against Louisville who plays a slow, physical style of basketball while playing ferocious defense.  Kentucky is also playing their third consecutive road game tonight which makes this is a prime spot to play against them

Louisville is also 10-1 on the season.  The Cardinals will be playing their fourth consecutive home game, so they definitely have the scheduling advantage over Kentucky.  Louisville is a perfect 7-0 at home where they play a sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents.  They’ve held all seven of their home opponents to 71 points or less as they tend to control tempo on their strong home court.  Louisville’s defense is holding their opponents to just 57.6 points per game on 32.9% shooting from the field and 29.4% shooting from three-point land at home.  This is Louisville’s biggest game of the season to date, so we’ll back the Cardinals in this game on Wednesday night.          

9* Play LOUISVILLE (+).

Indiana will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home to beat Washington 107-105 last night.  The Pacers went into that game off a 3-game road trip, and in fact, Indiana had played eight of their previous ten games on the road.  They are now in a terrible scheduling spot since they are back on the road once again while playing on a back-to-back set.  Indiana had all five starters play 30 minutes or more last night, and three of those guys played 37 minutes or more.  The Pacers got a complete team effort as they shot 47.1% (41-87) from the field with three players scoring 20 points or more while six players scored 10 points or more.  Indiana’s offense is unlikely to match that production tonight, and since their defense gives up 111.1 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field on the road, that makes this a difficult game for them to win. 

New York recently completed a 5-game West Coast road trip before retuning home to begin a 3-game homestand tonight.  The Knicks have had two full days off since, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance, especially since they are off an embarrassing 127-114 loss in Denver against the Nuggets.  The Knicks also lost their last home game before the road trip, so tonight’s game is quite important to them.  And as noted above, they are catching Indiana at the perfect time.  New York’s offense has been much better at home this season; the Knicks are averaging 105.5 points per game on 45.8% shooting from the field at home.  Derrick Rose is slated to return as well, so that’s another positive for the Knicks.  We’ll lay the points with New York in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play KNICKS (-).

Oakland had their 6-game winning streak snapped in their 21-13 loss in Kansas City last Thursday night.  And while they do have some extra rest coming into this game, we expect the Raiders to lose once again.  Oakland has good offensive numbers this season, but they’ve faced a collection of bad defenses.  Oakland’s own defense has had trouble stopping their opponents consistently, so the Raiders usually play in high-scoring games.  Overall, the Raiders’ defense is giving up 24.6 points per game on a whopping 6.3 yards per play versus offenses that only average 23.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

San Diego is just 5-8 on the season, but the Chargers should have a much better record.  Their first four losses all could have been wins, but they lost each one of those games late after having fourth quarter leads.  San Diego’s offense is averaging 26.9 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Chargers will take advantage of Oakland’s poor defense just like they did in the first meeting when they scored 31 points on 423 yards of offense.  The Chargers are just as good as the Raiders, so we’ll take the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play CHARGERS (+).

New England is in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for their game in Denver on Sunday afternoon.  The Patriots just played at home on Monday night when they beat the Baltimore Ravens 30-23.  New England will now hit the road on a short week while playing in the thin air and altitude of Denver.  The Patriots’ offense is also short-handed without Rob Gronkowski, and their inability to go deep now is a major concern in this game, especially against the stout Denver secondary.  New England certainly has a terrific offense, but they will face a Denver defense that is only giving up 20.2 points per game on 4.7 yards per play at home this season.

Denver returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 13-10 loss in Tennessee.  In fact, the Broncos have played four of their last five games on the road with their lone home game during that stretch being a 30-27 loss to the Chiefs in overtime.  Denver has an exceptional defense as noted above.  Overall, the Broncos are only giving up 18.6 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 24.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Denver’s offense has also been much better at home where they are averaging 25.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We’ll take Denver plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BRONCOS (+).

Pittsburgh is playing their best football of the season right now.  The Steelers head into Cincinnati on a 4-game winning streak while out-scoring their opponents by a combined 103-50.  Pittsburgh is finally healthy, and overall, the Steelers are averaging 24.4 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 21.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  In the first meeting versus Cincinnati, the Steelers scored 24 points on 374 yards of total offense.  QB Ben Roethlisberger didn’t have his best game either as he only completed 51.4% (19-37) of his passes with three touchdowns and two interceptions.  Pittsburgh has scored 24 points or more in nine of their twelve games with Roethlisberger under center this season.  In seven games in which Cincinnati has given up more than 20 points, the Bengals have gone 1-5-1 SU and 1-6 ATS.   

Cincinnati is just 5-7-1 on the season as they return home off an easy 23-10 win in Cleveland last Sunday.  The Bengals also won easily the week before when they beat the Philadelphia Eagles 32-14.  However, both of those teams are struggling mightily right now, and Cincinnati played their two best games of the season.  The Bengals are now taking a major step-up in class against Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati is set to regress off their last two wins.  The Bengals’ offense is only averaging 20.6 points per game versus defenses that allow 22 points per game.  Pittsburgh’s defense is only giving up 19.6 points per game on the road.  Pittsburgh is clearly the better team, so we’ll back the Steelers in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play STEELERS (-).

Middle Tennessee State comes into this game with a 10-1 record, but their lone loss did come against an inferior Tennessee State team.  The Blue Raiders upset Michigan State in the NCAA tournament last season, and they return just about everybody from that team.  There’s no doubt that Middle Tennessee State is a very good team, but this is a terrible scheduling spot for them, especially against a very good VCU team.  The Blue Raiders will be playing their third game in nine days with two of those games coming on the road.  This will also be their fourth true road game in their last five games, and their seventh away game in their last eight games overall.

Virginia Commonwealth snapped a 2-game losing streak with a 67-64 win at Old Dominion last Saturday.  The Rams return home for this game; they lost their last home game in overtime to Georgia Tech.  VCU has had a week to prepare for this game, so we expect a peak performance on their home court tonight.  The Rams won 62-56 at Middle Tennessee State as 4.5-point favorites last season, so the fact they are laying a point less at home to the same team doesn’t make much sense.  VCU owns a strong +15.6 point differential at home where they are averaging 78.8 points per game on 52% shooting from the field and 41% shooting from three-point land.  This game will be close for awhile, but we expect VCU to wear down Middle Tennessee State and win by a comfortable margin in the end.

9* Play VCU (-).

This game will be played on a neutral floor, so neither team will have the home court edge, but Northwestern will have the crowd edge.  Dayton is a team that needs to play at a fast pace to be at their best.  The Flyers tend to struggle mightily with their half court offense in slow-paced games, so this is not a good match-up for them at all.  Northwestern routinely plays in games that have less than 60 total possessions, so Dayton will be put out of their comfort zone.  The Flyers have scored less than 70 points in two games so far this season, and they’ve gone 1-1 SU in those games.  In the game they won, Dayton shot just 40.7% (22-54) from the field and 27.3% (6-22) from three-point land, so they were extremely fortunate in getting that win.  

Northwestern is having a terrific season, and they’ll be on the verge of getting their elusive ticket to the Big Dance in March.  This is an important out-of-conference for the Wildcats in that regard, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  Northwestern has two losses by a combined 6 points on the season; they lost at Butler by 2 points and lost to Notre Dame by 4 points on a neutral court.  Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace while playing suffocating defense.  The Wildcats only give up 63.4 points per game on 38.3% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point land.  We expect Northwestern to slow this game to a crawl, so we’ll back the Wildcats on Saturday night. 

9* Play NORTHWESTERN (+).

Portland will hit the road once again after making a pit stop at home to beat a short-handed Oklahoma City team 114-95 on Tuesday night.  The Trail Blazers were in a terrible scheduling spot going into that game with the Thunder; Portland was playing on a back-to-back set after just completing a 5-game road trip, and they were also playing their fourth game in six nights and their sixth game in nine nights while crossing multiple time zones.  Despite all that, Portland had plenty in the tank for that spotlight game.  However, off their recent schedule and that win, and now traveling once again into the thin air and altitude of Denver, this is a horrendous spot for Portland.  The Trail Blazers’ defense gives up 111.4 points per game on 45.5% shooting from the field and 37.1% shooting from three-point land on the road. 

Denver recently completed a 6-game road trip before retuning home to begin a 3-game homestand tonight.  The Nuggets have had two full days off since, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance, especially since they are off an embarrassing 20-point loss in Dallas against the Mavericks.  The Nuggets have also lost their last three home games, so tonight’s game is quite important to them.  And as noted above, they are catching Portland at the perfect time.  Denver’s offense has been much better at home this season; the Nuggets are averaging 109.2 points per game at home versus 103.2 points per game on the road.  We’ll lay the points with Denver in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play NUGGETS (-).

Orlando will hit the road once again for their game in Atlanta tonight.  The Magic will be playing their seventh road game over their last nine games overall.  Orlando does not come into this game in good current form at all, especially on the defensive end of the court.  The Magic are on a 3-game losing streak thanks to their defense which allowed a total of 347 points in those three games.  Orlando’s defense has given up 111 points per game on 49.4% shooting from the field and 38.5% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  That slumping defense will now face an Atlanta offense that has scored 217 total points in their last two games.  

Atlanta recently snapped their 7-game losing streak with a home win over the Miami Heat.  The Hawks followed that with a 114-110 road win in Milwaukee last Friday night.  Atlanta is back at home, and with three full days to prepare for this game, we expect a peak performance.  The Hawks were dealing with multiple injuries to their key players, but all reports indicate the team will be back at full strength tonight.  That coincides with Orlando having injury issues as both of their centers (Bismack Biyombo and Nikola Vucevic) may miss tonight’s game.  Atlanta’s offense is averaging 106.2 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 35.3% shooting from three-point land at home, so they will take advantage of an Orlando defense that is struggling mightily right now.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Los Angeles will hit the road tonight after losing 118-112 at home to the New York Knicks last night.  That was their second consecutive close, high-scoring loss as the Suns beat them 119-115 on Friday night.  Those back-to-back close losses will leave the Lakers empty tonight, especially since they will be playing on a back-to-back set.  This will also be Los Angeles’ third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  Los Angeles’ defense comes into this game in terrible current form; the Lakers have given up 116.2 points per game on 49% shooting from the field and 40.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  The Lakers have allowed 371 total points in their last three games.

Sacramento recently completed a 5-game East Coast road trip, and that was followed by a home game with just one of rest.  Next was a back-to-back set in the high altitude of Utah where they got blown out by 20 points (104-84).  Sacramento now returns back home for tonight’s game, and since they had yesterday off, we expect a strong bounce back performance.  The Kings’ offense is averaging 103.5 points per game on 44.6% shooting from the field and 35.2% shooting from three-point land at home, so they will take advantage of a Los Angeles defense that is struggling mightily right now.  We’ll lay the points with Sacramento in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play KINGS (-).

Baltimore comes into this game with a 7-5 SU record, but the Ravens have gone 4-1 SU since their bye week.  Baltimore’s lone loss during that stretch came by 10 points (27-17) in Dallas against the Cowboys who are 11-2 SU on the season.  Baltimore’s defense has been outstanding recently as they’ve only given up 68 total points in their last five games.  Overall, the Ravens’ defense is only giving up 17.2 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Baltimore’s offense has been underwhelming, but they are catching New England’s offense at the right time and the Ravens won’t have to trade points to stay competitive in this game.

New England is having another terrific season as they come into tonight’s game with a 10-2 SU record.  Unfortunately for the Patriots, they lost their best offensive weapon, tight end Rob Gronkowski, to a back injury.  Gronkowski stretched opposing defenses, and he was New England’s best deep threat.  The Patriots’ offense will now be a one-man show with Julian Edleman, but more importantly for tonight’s game, New England’s offense will be less explosive and rely solely on dink and dunk passes to move the football down the field on the stout Baltimore defense.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Baltimore plus the points in this game on Monday night.

10* Play RAVENS (+).

Dallas comes into tonight’s game with the best record in football at 11-1, but their lone loss of the season came against tonight’s opponent.  The Cowboys lost 20-19 at home to the Giants way back in Week 1, and we expect another close game tonight.  Dallas is led by a pair of rookies in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, and the pressure keeps building as the season goes on.  That has been evident recently as four of Dallas’ last six games have been decided by 6 points or less with two of their road wins during that stretch coming by just 2 and 5 points.  Dallas has blown out the bad teams this season, but they’ve won close games against good teams.   

New York’s 6-game winning streak came to an end with their 24-14 loss in Pittsburgh last week.  But that was a tough spot for the Giants as they were playing on a back-to-back road set.  New York returns home tonight, and we expect a strong bounce back effort.  New York’s offense has struggled at times this season, but they’ve played a tough slate of opposing defenses.  The Giants’ defense has been terrific all season as they are only giving up 19.7 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We’ll take the points with the Giants in a game that will go right down to the wire.

9* Play GIANTS (+).

Arizona snapped their 2-game losing streak with a solid 31-23 win over the Washington Redskins last week.  The Cardinals will now hit the road for a very winnable game in Miami.  Arizona’s last two road games came in Minnesota against a stout defense, and in Atlanta against one of the best offenses in the league.  Those two games were also on back-to-back weeks, so the Cardinals were in tough spots against those opponents.  This game in Miami is a major drop in class for Arizona, so we expect a strong performance.  Arizona’s offense is averaging 23 points per game, but they’ve faced a tough slate of opposing defenses.  The Cardinals will now face a Miami defense that is giving up 23.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that only average 21.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

Miami comes into this game off a 38-6 blowout loss in Baltimore last week.  That loss snapped their 6-game winning streak, but we do not expect the Dolphins to bounce back strong off last week’s performance.  Miami’s recent six wins came against a mediocre slate of opponents; three of their last four wins came against the Jets, Rams, and 49ers.  And Miami did not dominate those bad teams as those three wins came by just 7, 4, and 4 points.  Overall, Miami’s offense is only averaging 21.2 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Miami will now face an Arizona defense that only gives up 20.9 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  We’ll back Arizona in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

Utah is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Utes are coming off one of their best seasons in program history when head coach Larry Krystkowiak led the team to 27 wins before losing to eventual National Champion Duke in the Sweet 16.  However, the majority of that team has departed.  Utah lost four starters from that team, and numerous players decided to transfer as well.  Utah has a good-looking 6-1 SU record so far this season, but they’ve played every one of those games at home against inferior competition.  Their lone loss came by 9 points at home to Butler who is a weaker version of the Xavier team they’ll face tonight on the road.  Utah is making a long trip to Cincinnati for this out of conference game, and since this will be their first true road game of the season, we expect the Utes to get exposed.

Xavier is built to win right away as they return four of their top six scorers from last year’s 28-win team that was a #2 seed in the NCAA tournament.  The Musketeers return home off back-to-back road losses at Baylor and Colorado, so they will be primed for a peak performance tonight.  Xavier’s offense is averaging 79.8 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field and 38.9% shooting from three-point land at home.  Utah just allowed 80 points to Utah Valley and 84 points to Montana State on their home court, so Xavier’s offense will score at will in this game.  The Musketeers are the superior team by a wide margin, so we expect Xavier to win this game by 20 points or more on Saturday night.  

10* Play XAVIER (-).

New York will fly all the way out to the West Coast after getting drilled 126-94 at home by the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday night.  The Knicks will open their 5-game road trip without point guard Derrick Rose who will miss this game with a sore lower back.  His absence will be felt by the Knicks as Rose was having a terrific season, especially on the offensive end of the court.  New York just beat Sacramento 106-98 at home on Sunday night, and Rose scored 20 points on 64.3% (9-14) shooting from the field in just over 33 minutes of action.  The Knicks only won that game by 8 points despite out-shooting the Kings 44.3% (39-88) to 32% (31-97) from the field.  And that game was on their home court.  New York’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 109.9 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field and 40.3% shooting from three-point land.

Sacramento returns home off a 5-game road trip where they went just 2-3 SU.  However, the Kings were competitive as their three losses all came by 8 points or less, including an overtime loss in Washington.  The Kings were in a terrible scheduling spot for their last game in Dallas, but they overcame it and won that game by a whopping 31 points (120-89).  We expect Sacramento to carry over that momentum for tonight’s game, especially since they are seeking quick turnaround revenge.  Sacramento’s offense is averaging 103.9 points per game on 45.1% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land at home, so they will take advantage of New York’s poor road defense.  We’ll lay the points with Sacramento in this game on Friday night.     

10* Play KINGS (-).

Sacramento will conclude their 5-game road trip in Dallas tonight.  The Kings played the first four games on the East Coast, but tonight they will be in a different time zone in Dallas.  Sacramento won their first game of the trip in Brooklyn against the Nets, but they’ve gone 0-3 SU since because of the play of their offense.  Sacramento has scored 98 points or less in their last three games, and that includes an overtime session against the Wizards.  The Kings only averaged 95 points per game on 37% (102-276) shooting from the field, 24% (18-75) shooting from three-point land, and 68.5% (63-92) shooting from the free throw line in those games.  Sacramento’s offensive struggles will continue tonight against a Dallas defense that has held their last five opponents to just 92.6 points per game.

Dallas has had a rough season so far, especially considering the amount of injuries they have suffered.  However, the Mavericks are actually playing good basketball right now, and they are catching the Kings at the perfect time.  Dallas is only 2-3 SU during their past five games, but their three losses have all come by 10 points or less against teams that will be in the playoffs.  The Mavericks are now taking a step-down in class against the Kings, and Sacramento is a team on the Mavericks' level.  Andrew Bogut got hurt last night, and that may be a good thing for the Mavericks going forward.  Bogut was having a terrible season, and his backup, Dwight Powell, is actually playing much better.  Dallas is playing back-to-back home games, so we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight, especially since they are off a loss.  We’ll take the points with Dallas in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play MAVERICKS (+).

Chicago will hit the road after losing 112-110 at home to the Portland Trail Blazers last night.  The Bulls have lost back-to-back games, and they’ve lost three of their last four games overall.  Chicago is now in a bad scheduling spot, so we expect another loss tonight.  Chicago will be playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their fourth games in five nights.  Chicago’s defense is in terrible current form; the Bulls have given up 101.8 points per game on 46% shooting from the field and 38.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Chicago has allowed a total of 324 points in their last three games.

Detroit comes into this game off a 98-92 home loss to the Orlando Magic on Sunday night.  The Pistons have an excuse for that loss as they were returning home off a 4-game road trip while having just one day off before the Magic game.  Detroit also won three straight road games as underdogs prior to laying 7 points against Orlando, so it wasn’t a surprise that the Pistons struggled .  They will now play back-to-back home games, so we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight, especially since they are off a loss.  Detroit’s offense is averaging 106.8 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  We’ll lay the points with Detroit in this game on Tuesday night.     

10* Play PISTONS (-).

Boston is finally back to full strength after playing most of the early season without Al Horford and Jae Crowder.  Both guys are back in rhythm with the team, and the Celtics have played some terrific basketball recently.  Boston is 6-2 SU over their last eight games with their two losses coming by just 6 and 7 points.  Over their last five games, the Celtics’ offense is averaging 106.6 points per game on 45.7% shooting from the field and 36.3% shooting from three-point land.  Boston will take advantage of a terrible Houston defense that comes into this game in awful current form.  Over their last five games, the Rockets have given up 115 points per game on 47.2% shooting from the field.  In their last three games alone, Houston has allowed their opponents to score 357 total points.

Houston returns home off a 5-game West Coast road trip where they went 4-1 SU, including a thrilling double overtime win over the Golden State Warriors.  The Rockets were in a terrible scheduling spot for their last game in Denver; they were playing on a back-to-back set in altitude after that draining win over the Warriors.  Heavy money came in against Houston, but they went on to beat the Nuggets 128-110.  Now with the return home and two days off, we expect the Rockets to throw a clunker tonight, especially since they are playing a Boston team that is in excellent current form.  Houston is also expected to be without Trevor Ariza because of a back injury; he is averaging 12.6 points per game while being the Rockets’ leading rebounder at 8.4 boards per game.  We’ll take Boston plus the points in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play CELTICS (+).

Kansas City comes into this game off a fortunate 30-27 overtime win in Denver last Sunday night.  The Chiefs will now hit the road for the second consecutive week off that draining game in altitude, and we don’t expect their luck to continue in this game.  Don’t be fooled by the 30 points scored by the Chiefs last week; they only had 7 offensive points before scoring the tying touchdown late.  Kansas City scored 20 points or less in their three previous games, and overall, the Chiefs are only averaging 22.9 points per game on 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Kansas City will now face an Atlanta defense that has given up just 43 total points in their last two games.

Atlanta had a bye prior to their last game, so the Falcons are a much fresher team than Kansas City.  The Falcons waxed Arizona 38-19 last Sunday, so they also had a much easier game than the Chiefs.  Atlanta’s offense has been fantastic all season, especially at home where they are averaging 34.6 points per game on 6.8 yards per play.  Kansas City has solid defensive numbers, but they’ve played a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Atlanta’s offense is a major step-up in class for Kansas City’s defense, and the Chiefs’ offense will need to trade points in this game, but they haven’t shown any capability of doing that all season.  Kansas City also has a huge divisional game on deck at home versus Oakland in just four nights.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this non-conference game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play FALCONS (-).

Denver will hit the road after losing 128-110 at home to the Rockets last night.  The Nuggets have no excuse for that loss as Houston was playing on a back-to-back set in altitude after beating Golden State 132-127 in double overtime.  Denver is in terrible current form as they are just 1-4 SU in their last five games.  Denver will be playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights.  Denver’s defense has given up 117.6 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 42% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Denver has allowed a total of 348 points in their last three games.

Utah comes into this game off a 111-110 home loss to the Miami Heat on Thursday night, so they’ll be ready for a strong bounce back effort in this game.  The Jazz upgraded their offense over the summer, and those additions have paid off so far this season.  Utah’s offense is in excellent current form; the Jazz are averaging 109 points per game on 50.6% shooting from the field and 39.7% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Utah will now face a woeful Denver defense that is in disarray, so expect another strong offensive game from the Jazz tonight.  We’ll back Utah in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play JAZZ (-).

Penn State is one of the hottest teams in the country as they come into tonight’s Big 10 Championship game against Wisconsin on an 8-game winning streak while going 7-0-1 ATS.  The Nittany Lions’ offense has been fantastic this season while averaging 36.6 points per game on 6.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 25.8 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Wisconsin has strong defensive numbers, but they’ve faced offenses that only average 28.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Badgers will now face a Penn State offense that averages 8.5 points per game and 0.8 yards per play more than the offenses Wisconsin has faced this season.

Wisconsin has an identical 10-2 SU record as Penn State.  The Badgers are also on a 6-game winning streak, but their defense has been a bit leaky after giving up 37 points in their last two games.  That doesn’t seem like a lot of points on the surface, but Wisconsin held their previous four opponents to a total of 36 points, including an overtime game.  There’s no denying the fact that Wisconsin has a strong defense, but they are taking a monumental step-up in class against the Penn State offense in this game.  Wisconsin’s offense is only averaging 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.2 yards per play, so they’ve been anything but explosive this season.  Penn State’s defense only gives up 4.8 yards per play.  We’ll take the points with Penn State in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play PENN STATE (+).

UNLV had a tumultuous offseason after hiring Chris Beard as their new head coach.  After accepting the job, Beard had a change of heart and left for the head job at Texas Tech.  UNLV pursued others, and after many passes, they settled on former New Mexico State coach Marvin Menzies.  The team is in flux right now, so don’t put too much stock into their 5-2 SU record.  The Rebels have played a woeful schedule with six of their seven games coming on their home court.  Tonight’s trip to Arizona State will expose UNLV for what they are; a mediocre team at best.  UNLV will also be without their second leading scorer tonight as Christian Jones (14 ppg) is out after suffering a foot injury in their last game.  “He was probably our best player statistically,” Menzies said.  “Until we get him back, it’s all hands on deck.”

Arizona State comes into this game off an embarrassing 115-69 loss to Kentucky.  The Sun Devils had no chance of beating the Wildcats, but head coach Bobby Hurley was disgusted by his team’s effort in that game: “I’ll never tolerate losing that way or accept losing that way.”  Hurley said his team has a ‘circle the wagons’ type of effort coming tonight, and they get the perfect opponent at the perfect time.  The Sun Devils are averaging 83.3 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field and 36.8% shooting from three-point land.  Arizona State will get their preferred fast pace against UNLV, so we’ll lay the points with the Sun Devils in this game on Saturday night.         

9* Play ARIZONA STATE (-).

Cleveland will hit the road after losing 113-94 at home to the Clippers last night.  The Cavaliers have lost back-to-back games, and with this being a terrible scheduling spot, we expect another loss tonight.  Cleveland will be playing on a back-to-back set with this also being their third game in four nights, and their fourth games in six nights, including three of four on the road.  Cleveland’s defense is in terrible current form; the Cavaliers have given up 110.8 points per game on 48% shooting from the field and 37.8% shooting from three-point land over their last five games.  Cleveland has allowed a total of 339 points in their last three games.

Chicago comes into this game off a 96-90 home loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night.  The Bulls have an excuse for that loss as they were returning home off a 6-game West Coast road trip while having four days off before the Lakers game.  That much rest this early in the season is simply way too long, and it wasn’t a surprise that Chicago struggled in that game.  They are now back into their regular routine, so we expect a strong bounce back effort tonight.  The Bulls’ offense is averaging 105.8 points per game at home, so they will take advantage of the slumping Cleveland defense.  We’ll back Chicago in this game on Friday night.     

9* Play BULLS (+).

Milwaukee has played to a specific profile this season.  The Bucks have been a horrendous team, especially on offense, against strong defensive teams.  However, when Milwaukee has played bad defenses, Milwaukee’s offense has been outstanding.  The Bucks will face a terrible Brooklyn defense tonight, so we expect their good current form to continue.  Milwaukee has averaged 107 points per game in their last three games while shooting 50.6% (127-251) from the field and 37.5% (27-72) from three-point land.  The Bucks have also hit 72.7% from the free throw line while getting to the stripe 55 times in their last three games. 

Brooklyn was in terrible current form before their miraculous double overtime comeback win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday night.  Prior to that win, the Nets were on a 7-game losing streak.  Brooklyn’s defense is pitiful, and in fact, they’ve allowed 104 points or more in eleven straight games.  Over their last five games, Brooklyn has given up 120.4 points per game on 50.3% shooting from the field and 41.1% shooting from three-point land.  We’ll lay the points with Milwaukee in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play BUCKS (-).

North Carolina is a perfect 7-0 on the season while scoring 83 points or more in six of those seven games.  However, aside from Wisconsin, the Tar Heels have played a joke of a schedule thus far, and they are taking another jump-up in class tonight versus Indiana.  North Carolina is also coming off their trip to Hawaii where they won the Maui Invitational, and historically, these teams underperform in their first couple of games back on the mainland.  North Carolina will also be playing a difficult true road game in Assembly Hall where the Hoosiers are 6-1 SU versus Top 5 teams under head coach Tom Crean since 2011.     

Indiana is 4-1 on the season, including a 103-99 overtime win against a very good Kansas team in their season opener.  The Hoosiers have had this game circled since losing 101-86 to North Carolina in the NCAA tournament last season.  “I remember,” said Juwan Morgan.  “I see that every day. Seeing that motivates me. Like, that can’t happen again. We have to come out and set a tone as far as who’s gonna hit who first. We’ve got to be ready to fight.”  Indiana has the offense to trade points with North Carolina; the Hoosiers are averaging 88.6 points per game on 49.5% shooting from the field and 39.8% shooting from three-point land.  This game will go right down to the wire, so we’ll take Indiana plus the points on Wednesday night.

9* Play INDIANA (+).

Houston is primed for big things this season, and anything less than a NCAA tournament appearance would be considered a disappointment.  The Cougars are in their third year under head coach Kelvin Sampson, and with three starters and eight contributing players returning from last season’s 22-win team, Houston has no excuses.  The Cougars come into tonight’s game at LSU with a perfect 5-0 record, and we expect another big win tonight.  Houston has won four of their five games by 27 points or more.  The Cougars are averaging 85.2 points per game on 51.4% shooting from the field and 45.7% shooting from three-point land.  Houston’s defense has also been strong while holding their opponents to just 58 points per game on 36.8% shooting from the field and 25.7% shooting from three-point land.

LSU was supposed to have a big season last year with Ben Simmons on the court.  The results were a disaster even with a 19-14 record, and the team ultimately declined a post-season tournament invite to the NIT.  Head coach Johnny Jones is on the proverbial hot seat, and with little talent on hand, the Tigers are projected to finish much worse than last season.  LSU is 4-2 on the season, but they were thoroughly embarrassed by Wichita State and VCU in their two losses.  LSU lost 105-98 in overtime to Houston last season, but Simmons, Keith Hornsby, and Tim Quarterman combined to score 72 of their 98 total points in that game; all three have departed.  LSU also got out-rebounded 44-32, including 16-9 on the offensive glass.  Houston is the superior team, so we’ll lay the points with the Cougars in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play HOUSTON (-).

Green Bay is just 4-6 SU on the season, but five of their losses have come in their last six games.  The Packers are on a 4-game losing streak, and they are playing their third consecutive road game.  Green Bay also got blown out by 18 points (42-24) in Washington in their last game, and that was last Sunday night.  Off that national TV loss, and with everything else listed above, not many will want any part of Green Bay in this game and this line has now become inflated.  The Packers have some things working in their favor that will make them competitive tonight.  Green Bay is averaging 24.7 points per game versus defenses that give up just 23.2 points per game.  The Packers won’t have to trade points tonight as their defense is taking a big step-down in class against the inefficient Philadelphia offense after Green Bay has just faced four straight highly efficient offenses.

Philadelphia returns home off a 26-15 loss in Seattle.  The Eagles are a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season, but that record isn’t as impressive when factoring in the opponents they played.  Philadelphia beat offensively challenged Cleveland and Minnesota at home, so their strong defensive numbers are a bit skewed.  In six games against efficient offenses this season, the Eagles are just 2-4 SU.  Philadelphia’s offense is only averaging 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.7 yards per play, so Green Bay’s defense won’t be as bad tonight as they’ve been in recent games.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Green Bay plus the points in this game on Monday night.

9* Play PACKERS (+).

Oklahoma City will hit the road once again on Monday night.  The Thunder just completed a 4-game in five night set on Saturday at home with their previous three games all coming on the road.  Tonight’s game in New York is a terrible scheduling spot for Oklahoma City, especially since they’ll return home for a pair of games this upcoming week.  Oklahoma City is just 1-4 SU in their last five road games with their lone win coming by just 3 points in overtime.  Overall, the Thunder own a -6.9 point differential on the road this season.  Oklahoma City’s defense is giving up 108.9 points per game while allowing their opponents to shoot 46.5% from the field and 39.2% from three-point land. 

New York returns home off a 107-102 loss in Charlotte on Saturday night.  The Knicks will be primed for a strong bounce back effort in this game, especially since they are a solid 7-2 SU at home this season.  New York’s offense is averaging 105.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 35.7% shooting from three-point land at home this season.  Their strong offense at home matches-up extremely well with Oklahoma City’s poor defense on the road.  New York’s next game will be on the road, so that makes tonight’s home game more important.  We’ll back New York in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play KNICKS (+).

Kansas City comes into tonight’s game off a bad 19-17 home loss versus the Buccaneers last Sunday.  The Chiefs were 7-point home favorites in that game, and their offensive struggles were on full display.  Kansas City has scored 20 points or less in three consecutive games, and overall, the Chiefs are only averaging 22.2 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Kansas City will now face a Denver defense that is only giving up 18.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play at home this season.

Denver comes into this game fresh off their bye, so we expect a strong performance tonight.  The Broncos have won three of their previous four games after losing back-to-back games prior to that.  Denver has an exceptional defense as noted above.  Overall, the Broncos are only giving up 18.9 points per game on 5.1 yards per play versus offenses that average 25.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Kansas City will have trouble moving the ball consistently, so we’ll back Denver in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

Carolina comes into this game with a 4-6 SU record, but the Panthers have been a much better team since their bye five weeks ago and they are now an underdog for the first time this season.  Carolina has won three of their last four games with their lone loss coming by just 3 points to the Kansas City Chiefs.  Overall, Carolina’s offense is averaging 24.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.5 points per game.  On the road, the Panthers have been even better while averaging 26.0 points per game.  Carolina will now face a poor Oakland defense that is giving up 28.0 points per game on a whopping 7.4 yards per play and 9.9 yards per pass at home this season.

Oakland is in a terrible scheduling spot for this game against Carolina.  The Raiders will be playing on a short week after beating the Texans in Mexico on Monday night.  Oakland was clearly a gassed team from the high altitude, and on short rest, we don’t expect the Raiders to be at their best in this game, especially since the Raiders went into their last game off a bye.  Overall, Oakland’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they will now face an improving Carolina defense that has held their last four opponents to 20 points or less.  Carolina is catching Oakland at the perfect time, so we’ll take the Panthers plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play PANTHERS (+).

San Diego is just 4-6 on the season, but the Chargers should have a much better record.  Their first four losses all could have been wins, but they lost each one of those games late after having fourth quarter leads.  San Diego has a huge scheduling advantage over Houston in this game.  The Chargers come into this game fresh off their bye while the Texans will be playing on short rest after a game in Mexico on Monday night.  San Diego’s offense is averaging 29.2 points per game on 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Chargers will take advantage of a Houston defense that was clearly gassed from the high altitude in Mexico.

Houston comes into this game with a 6-4 record, but the Texans may not be as good as their record indicates.  Houston’s offense is only averaging 18.1 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus defenses that allow 22.2 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Five of Houston’s six wins this season have come 7 points or less, and that is a clear indication that the Texans are a mediocre team at best.  Their defense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Houston’s defense is taking a big step-up in class against the potent San Diego offense.  The Chargers are simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play CHARGERS (-).

Florida is 8-2 SU on the season, and they come into this game off their biggest win of the year.  The Gators won 16-10 as 14-point road underdogs at LSU last Saturday to clinch their spot in the SEC title game next week.  Florida is in that game regardless of what happens in this game, so we expect a natural letdown to happen, especially considering the Gators are decimated by injuries.  Florida is expected to be without these starters against Florida State: linebackers Jarrad Davis and Alex Anzalone, safeties Nick Washington and Marcus Maye, defensive end Bryan Cox Jr., quarterback Luke Del Rio and center Cam Dillard.  Florida’s offense is only averaging 25.2 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that give up 27 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Gators will now face a Florida State defense that only gives up 19 points per game on 5.4 yards per play at home.

Florida State comes into this game with an 8-3 record after winning their last two games by a combined score of 90-21.  The Seminoles are averaging 35.6 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that give up 27.7 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Florida has strong defensive numbers, but they’ve faced offenses that only average 27 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Florida State’s running game averages 202.9 yards per game on 5.0 yards per rush.  Florida is allowing 157.8 rushing yards per game on the road, and with their long list of defensive injuries, we expect the Seminoles to dominate this game on the ground.  We’ll lay the points with Florida State in this game on Saturday night.

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (-).

West Virginia comes into this game with an 8-2 SU record, but the Mountaineers are a phony team.  They’ve played an extremely weak schedule, and in the games against decent opposition, the Mountaineers are just 2-2 SU with the two wins coming by a total of 4 points.  West Virginia had a huge home game against Oklahoma last Saturday night, and they proceeded to lose that game by 28 points (56-28).  That demoralizing loss will leave the Mountaineers with a hangover, and the fact that they are laying a full touchdown on the road creates even more value on Iowa State; my power ratings say West Virginia should be just a 3.5-point favorite in this game.  West Virginia’s offense is averaging 31.8 points per game, but they’ve played a terrible group of opposing defenses that are giving up 31.5 points per game.  The Mountaineers will now play an Iowa State defense that is only allowing 25.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play at home.

Iowa State has a poor 3-8 SU record, but the Cyclones have been playing much better football down the stretch.  Iowa State has won their last two games after their offense scored a total of 97 points.  The Cyclones were competitive in four of their previous five losses as well; they lost by 10, 7, 5, and 3 points.  Iowa State’s offense has been fantastic at home all season.  The Cyclones are averaging 37 points per game on a whopping 6.9 yards per play.  West Virginia’s defense has given up 134 total points in their last four games, so they are in poor current form.  We’ll take Iowa State plus the points in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play IOWA STATE (+).

Boise State comes into this game with an impressive 10-1 record, but they’ve played a woeful schedule to say the least.  The Broncos have been 14.5-point road favorites or greater in all five of their away games this season, and that alone speaks volumes about their poor competition.  Boise State is just a single-digit road favorite in this game, and based on my power ratings, they are laying a few points too many.  Overall, Boise State’s offense is averaging 37 points per game on 7.1 yards per play, but they’ve played a terrible group of opposing defenses that are giving up 30.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Broncos will now face an Air Force defense that is holding opponents to just 25.8 points per game at home, and just 5.6 yards per play overall. 

Air Force will be the best team Boise State has faced so far this season.  The Falcons own an 8-3 record on the year with all three losses coming by 9 points or less.  Air Force has played three of their last four games on the road, and with this being their season finale at home, we expect a peak performance this afternoon.  Air Force is averaging 37.8 points per game on 6.1 yards per play at home this season.  The Falcons average a whopping 382.4 rushing yards per game at home, and since Boise State’s defense is giving up 201.6 rushing yards per game on the road, we expect Air Force to control this game on the ground.  We’ll take Air Force plus the generous points in this game on Friday afternoon.

10* Play AIR FORCE (+).

This game will be played in Hawaii, so neither team will have home court advantage.  Wisconsin comes into this game off an easy 73-57 win over Georgetown last night.  We won a Best Bet selection on the Badgers in that game, and we’ll come right back with them tonight.  Wisconsin is a deep team that is built to succeed in tournament play, so they’ll have plenty of energy left for tonight’s third game in three nights.  Wisconsin returned 66.5 of its 67.8 points per game from last year’s Sweet 16 team, so this is an experienced team that plays excellent defense.  Wisconsin is holding opponents to just 59.2 points per game on 38.7% shooting from the field.  The Badgers also play at a very slow tempo, and that will have a major impact on the outcome of this game.

North Carolina is a perfect 6-0 on the season while scoring 83 points or more in every game.  However, the Tar Heels have played a joke of a schedule thus far, and they are taking a monumental step-up in class tonight versus Wisconsin.  North Carolina is a team that needs to play ultra fast in order to be at their best.  The Tar Heels play an up-tempo style that gives them a lot of easy baskets in transition.  But when they are unable to play at a fast pace, North Carolina’s offense struggles mightily in the half court.  Last season, North Carolina went just 3-2 SU when held to less than 70 points with two of their three wins coming by 4 points or less.  Wisconsin’s style will frustrate North Carolina, so we’ll take the points with the Badgers in this game on Wednesday night.

10* Play WISCONSIN (+).

Denver will hit the road for the first time in ten days when they play in Utah tonight.  The Nuggets will be playing on a back-to-back set after beating the Bulls 110-107 at home last night.  This will also be Denver’s third game in four nights, their fourth game in five nights, and their fifth game in eight nights.  This is simply a terrible scheduling spot for Denver, especially since they’ll return home for a game on Friday.  Denver did just beat Utah 105-91 at home on Sunday night, but the Jazz were on a back-to-back set while playing their seventh road game in their last nine games.  Denver will be without their second leading scorer, Danilo Gallinari (16.8 ppg), tonight because of a thigh injury.

Utah comes into this game on a 4-game losing streak, but we expect a peak performance tonight.  The Jazz have had two full days of rest to get ready for this game, and with three straight home losses recently, Utah will bring their best effort.  Utah is also playing with legitimate revenge after getting embarrassed by 14 points in Denver three days ago.  The Jazz play at the slowest pace in the NBA, so their methodical style will cause Denver fits, especially since the Nuggets will be missing Gallinari.  Utah’s defense ranks 10th in defensive efficiency, and after allowing 216 total points in their last two games, the stop unit will be stout tonight.  We’ll lay the points with Utah in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play JAZZ (-).

This game will be played in Hawaii, so neither team will have home court advantage.  Wisconsin comes into this game off an easy 74-62 win over Tennessee yesterday afternoon.  The Badgers had eight players play 14 minutes or more, so they’ll have plenty of energy left for tonight’s back-to-back set.  Wisconsin will also be playing this game with legitimate revenge after losing 71-61 to Georgetown in Madison Square Garden last season.  The Badgers returned 66.5 of its 67.8 points per game from last year’s Sweet 16 team, so this is an experienced team that plays excellent defense.  Wisconsin is holding opponents to just 59.8 points per game on 38.7% shooting from the field.

Georgetown improved to 2-2 on the season after upsetting Oregon 65-61 as 9-point underdogs yesterday afternoon.  The Hoyas were fortunate that Oregon’s best player, Dillion Brooks, was limited to just 13 minutes because of injury.  Georgetown also benefitted from the pace of play as they were able to slow down the up-tempo Ducks while taking them out of their comfort zone.  That won’t be the case tonight as Wisconsin plays the same slowdown style, and the Badgers are simply a much better team than the Hoyas.  Georgetown is also depth shy as six of their seven rotation guys played 22 minutes or more in yesterday’s game.  We’ll lay the points with Wisconsin in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play WISCONSIN (-).

This game will be played in Mexico.  Houston is 6-3 on the season, but all three of their losses have come on the road.  Those defeats came against New England, Minnesota, and Denver.  The Patriots, Vikings, and Broncos are a combined 21-9 SU on the season, and all three teams have excellent defenses.  Houston’s offense has struggled, but again, they’ve played a tough slate of defenses that are only giving up 22 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  In four games against lesser defenses, Houston has averaged 23.2 points per game.  The Texans are taking a monumental step-down in defensive class against the Raiders in this game, so we expect a solid offensive performance tonight.

Oakland comes into tonight’s game on a 3-game winning streak.  The Raiders scored 30 points or more in all three games, but they played a pair of bad teams in Jacksonville and Tampa Bay.  Oakland has good offensive numbers this season, but they’ve faced a collection of bad defenses that allow 24.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Raiders will now face a Houston defense that is only giving up 20.9 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  That’s 3.4 points per game and 0.4 yards per play less than what the Oakland offense has faced this season.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take Houston plus the points in this game on Monday night.

9* Play TEXANS (+).

Miami comes into this game with a poor 4-8 record, but the Heat have played a brutal schedule so far this season.  The Heat faced the Spurs twice, Raptors, Thunder, Hornets, Jazz and Hawks.  Five of those six teams are ranked in the top eight in defensive efficiency, so Miami’s offensive struggles are understandable.  The Heat also played without point guard Goran Dragic for some of those games, but he returned to the court last Thursday night and Miami has won two consecutive games while scoring 210 total points.  Miami’s defense is only allowing 42% shooting from the field and 34.7% shooting from three-point land; Philadelphia’s offense is taking a big step-up in class in this game.

Philadelphia is the worst team in the NBA, and they come into this game with a terrible 3-10 record on the season.  The 76ers have played two of the worst defenses based on efficiency metrics in their last three games, and they scored 315 total points.  However, they will now face a Miami defenses that ranks 4th in defensive efficiency.  In their five games against teams in the top 8 of defensive efficiency (Thunder, Hawks twice, Hornets and Jazz), the 76ers averaged just 88.4 points per game on 40.2% (165-410) shooting from the field and 32.3% (42-130) shooting from three-point land.  Philadelphia lost those five games by an average of 20 points per game.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this game on Monday night.     

10* Play HEAT (-).

Philadelphia got back to their winning ways after defeating the Atlanta Falcons 24-15 last week.  The Eagles had lost their previous two games to the Cowboys and Giants, but those losses came by a combined 11 points.  In fact, all four of the Eagles’ losses this season have come by 7 points or less.  Philadelphia has played above average football on both sides of the ball this season.  The Eagles are averaging 25.1 points per game versus defenses that only give up 23.1 points per game.  Philadelphia’s defense only gives up 17.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus offenses that average 22.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Philadelphia has scored 20 points or more in all nine of their games this season, and in the four games in which Seattle has given up more than 20 points, the Seahawks’ three wins have come by 7 points or less.  

Seattle is 6-2-1 on the season as they return home off a high-scoring win in New England last Sunday night.  That was Seattle’s fifth consecutive close game with the average margin of victory only coming by 4 points per game.  The Seahawks have underperformed greatly on the offensive side of the ball this season.  Seattle is only averaging 21.4 points per game versus defenses that allow 23.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Quarterback Russell Wilson has been playing hurt, and that is having a major impact on Seattle being inefficient on offense.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take Philadelphia plus the points on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play EAGLES (+).

Buffalo comes into this game fresh off their bye, and since they went into it on a 3-game losing streak, we expect a peak performance against the Bengals.  Buffalo’s offense has been extremely efficient this season.  The Bills are averaging 26.3 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 20.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Cincinnati’s defense is allowing 23.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Buffalo has scored 25 points or more in seven of their nine games this season, and in the seven games in which Cincinnati has given up more than 20 points, the Bengals have gone 1-5-1 SU and 1-6 ATS.   

Cincinnati is just 3-5-1 on the season as they return home off back-to-back road games.  The Bengals played in London three weeks ago, and last week they lost 21-20 in New York to the Giants on Monday night.  Cincinnati is now on a short week while their opponent has had an extra week of rest.  The Bengals’ offense is only averaging 20.8 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.2 points per game.  Buffalo’s defense is only giving up 18.2 points per game on the road.  Buffalo is clearly the better team, so we’ll back the Bills in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BILLS (+).

Miami comes into this game with a poor 3-8 record, but the Heat have played a brutal schedule so far this season.  The Heat faced the Spurs twice, Raptors, Thunder, Hornets, Jazz and Hawks.  Five of those six teams are ranked in the top eight in defensive efficiency, so Miami’s offensive struggles are understandable.  The Heat also played without point guard Goran Dragic for some of those games, but he returned to the court on Thursday night and Miami beat Milwaukee 96-73.  Miami’s defense is only allowing 41.5% shooting from the field and 33.9% shooting from three-point land; Washington’s offense is taking a big step-up in class in this game.

Washington is also 3-8 on the season after beating the Knicks 119-112 on Thursday night.  The Wizards have played three of the worst defenses based on efficiency metrics in their last five games.  Against the Celtics, 76ers and Knicks, Washington’s offense scored a total of 339 points.  However, they will now face a Miami defenses that ranks 4th in defensive efficiency.  In their lone game against a team in the top 8 of defensive efficiency (Hawks), the Wizards scored just 95 points on 38.8% (31-80) shooting from the field and 25% (5-20) shooting from three-point land.  We’ll take the points with Miami in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play HEAT (+).

Arkansas comes into this game off a 38-10 blowout home loss to LSU last week.  We won a Best Bet against the Razorbacks in that game, and we’ll go against them once again this week, especially since they are back on the road where they’ve been absolutely terrible this season.  Arkansas has only played three away games, and they are just 1-2 SU with their lone win coming in overtime.  The Razorbacks’ defense is giving up 46.3 points per game on a whopping 8.2 yards per play on the road this season.  Overall, Arkansas has a woeful run defense that has allowed opponents to run for 218 yards per game on 6.3 yards per rush, including an atrocious 368 rushing yards per game (8.8 ypr) on the road.  Their inability to stop the run will have a major impact on the outcome of this game.

Mississippi State returns home off a 51-3 blowout loss at Alabama.  That loss was ugly, but Alabama is the best team in the country and the Bulldogs can’t compete with superior teams.  Mississippi State will now play a team on their level, and we expect a strong bounce back performance in this game.  The Bulldogs are averaging 28.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that give up 25.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Mississippi State’s offense is going from facing the best defense in the country to facing one of the worst defenses in the SEC.  We’ll lay the points with Mississippi State on Saturday night.  

10* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (-).

Virginia Tech comes into this game with a 7-3 SU record, but they are just 4-6 ATS, including a 3-game losing streak against the spread.  The Hokies lost to Georgia Tech last week as 14-point home favorites.  That’s a terrible loss, and now they are stepping up in class while playing their third road game over the last four weeks.  Virginia Tech’s offense is in terrible current form as they’ve only scored 44 total points in their last two games.  Overall, Virginia Tech is averaging 33.4 points per game on 5.7 yards per play, but they’ve played a group of opposing defenses that are giving up 28.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Hokies will now play a Notre Dame defense that is only allowing 25.5 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  That’s 3.0 points per game and 0.5 yards per play less than the defenses Virginia Tech has faced this season.

Notre Dame has had a disappointing season to say the least.  The Irish come into this game with a poor 4-6 SU record, but they’ve been a competitive bunch.  All six of Notre Dame’s losses have come by 8 points or less with their defeats coming by a total of 29 points.  The Irish are off their best game of the season; they blew out Army 44-6.  Off that dominating win and back at home, we expect the Irish will carry over momentum into this game.  Notre Dame is averaging 31.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play versus defenses that only gave up 26 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Those numbers show Notre Dame is a much better team than their record indicates.  We’ll back Notre Dame in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NOTRE DAME.

Oklahoma State is in a poor scheduling and situational spot for this game at TCU on Saturday afternoon.  The Cowboys come into this game with an 8-2 record, and they could very well be 9-1 on the season.  Oklahoma State lost on a controversial last play to Central Michigan back in Week 2; the play never should have counted.  The Cowboys won 43-37 at Kansas State two weeks ago after scoring the winning touchdown with less than 2 minutes to play.  Last week, the Cowboys beat Texas Tech 45-44 in a back and forth game that had over 1,100 yards of total offense.  That’s back-to-back emotionally draining games for Oklahoma State, and it’s highly unlikely they’ll have much in reserve for this game.  Oklahoma State was in a similar spot for their game at Baylor earlier this season, and it resulted in a 35-24 loss.  The Cowboys will also be playing their second road game in three weeks, and their third road game over the last five weeks.

TCU has had a disappointing season with just a 5-4 record.  However, the Horned Frogs have lost three of those games by 6 points or less, so they are a much better team than their record indicates.  TCU comes into this game off a bye, so that’s a major scheduling advantage for them, especially since Oklahoma State is off back-to-back draining games.  TCU is also playing with legitimate revenge after losing 49-29 as 6.5-point road favorites at Oklahoma State last season.  TCU actually out-yarded Oklahoma State 663-456 in that game, so the final was certainly misleading.  TCU is averaging 41.6 points per game on 6.5 yards per play at home this season.  Oklahoma State’s defense is giving up 30.7 points per game on 6.6 yards per play on the road this season.  The Cowboys’ defense is giving up 228.3 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per rush while TCU’s offense is running for 196 yards per game on 5.4 yards per rush.  This is simply a terrible spot and a bad matchup for Oklahoma State, so we’ll lay the points with TCU on Saturday afternoon. 

9* Play TCU (-).

This game will be played on a neutral court in Florida.  Northern Iowa returns two starters and three key reserves from last year’s 23-win team that made the NCAA tournament.  The Panthers beat North Carolina last season, and they also beat a very good Wichita State team twice.  Northern Iowa has a terrific program under head coach Ben Jacobson, and he runs a ‘plug and play’ system.  Northern Iowa plays a very sound, half court style of basketball that simply frustrates their opponents, especially the teams that like to play up-tempo.  The Panthers have historically played at one of the slowest paces in the country, and they combine that with excellent defense.  Northern Iowa has held their two opponents this season to a total of 100 points on 41.5% shooting from the field and 36.4% shooting from three-point land.  

Oklahoma made the Final Four last season, but they did so with a trio of seniors that started 105 consecutive games together.  All have departed, including the Sooners’ best player, Buddy Hield.  The Sooners are traveling an unfamiliar path this season, and head coach Lon Kruger knows that: “It will be a new squad, a new identity. They have to establish their own way.”  Oklahoma is 2-0 on the season, but they beat two inferiors teams, Northwestern State and Tulane.  Oklahoma is a team that needs to play at an ultra-fast tempo in order to be at their best.  The Sooners like to get a lot of easy baskets in transition, but Oklahoma will not get their preferred style of play against Northern Iowa tonight.  We’ll take the points with Northern Iowa in this game on Friday night.                  

10* Play NORTHERN IOWA (+).

Portland comes into this game with a 7-5 record, but the Trail Blazers have played a soft schedule.  Portland has played a slew of inefficient offenses, so their poor defense hasn’t been fully exposed yet.  That will change tonight against a potent Houston offense.  Overall, Portland is giving up 111.2 points per game on 44.4% shooting from the field and 35.6% shooting from three-point land.  Those poor numbers have come against average offenses, so they’ll be even worse against better offensive teams.  Portland’s last road game against a good offense resulted in a 111-80 blowout loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers.

Houston has played eight of their eleven games on the road so far, and with this being just their fourth home game of the season, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Houston only lost 105-103 in Oklahoma City last night despite scoring just 13 total points in the fourth quarter.  Houston will now take a major step-down in defensive class, so their offense will be efficient for a full four quarters.  The Rockets have faced two poor defenses this season; Houston scored a total of 233 points while shooting 47.8% (86-180) from the field and 40% (32-80) from three-point land in those games.  They also got to the free throw line 44 times in those two games.  We’ll lay the points with Houston in this game on Thursday night.     

9* Play ROCKETS (-).

Milwaukee is 5-5 on the season after losing 107-100 in Atlanta last night.  That 7-point loss was misleading as the Bucks trailed by 14 points going into the fourth quarter, and they trailed by as many as 24 points.  Milwaukee’s offense has struggled mightily versus the three elite defensive teams they’ve played this season.  Milwaukee lost 107-96 to Charlotte, they lost 98-83 to Detroit, and last night they lost 107-100 to Atlanta.  The Bucks’ offense was horrendous in all three of those games as they only scored a combined 279 points on 40.4% (112-277) shooting from the field and 23.1% (15-65) shooting from three-point land.  Milwaukee only got to the free throw line 52 total times in those three games as well.  Tonight they will face Miami who has the fourth best defensive team in the league based on efficiency metrics.

Miami comes into this game with a poor 2-8 record, but the Heat have played a brutal schedule so far this season.  The Heat faced the Spurs twice, Raptors, Thunder, Hornets, Jazz and Hawks.  Five of those six teams are ranked in the top eight in defensive efficiency, so Miami’s offense struggles are understandable.  The Heat also played without point guard Goran Dragic, but all reports indicate he will return to the court tonight.  Miami’s defense is only allowing 42.4% shooting from the field and 34.3% shooting from three-point land at home, and since Milwaukee’s offense has struggled against good defenses, this game is a bad matchup for the Bucks.  We’ll lay the points with Miami in this game on Thursday night.     

10* Play HEAT (-).

Milwaukee is 5-4 on the season, but the Bucks have played a soft schedule to get those wins.  The Bucks have only played two elite defensive teams so far this season, and both of those games resulted in blowout losses.  Milwaukee lost 107-96 to Charlotte, and they lost 98-83 to Detroit.  The Bucks’ offense was horrendous in both of those games as they only scored a combined 179 points on 40.8% (73-179) shooting from the field and 21.2% (7-33) shooting from three-point land.  Milwaukee only got to the free throw line 17 total times in those two games as well, and that clearly indicates that the Bucks’ offense struggles mightily against good defensive teams.  Tonight they will face Atlanta who has the second best defensive team in the league based on efficiency metrics.

Atlanta comes into this game with an 8-2 record after winning 93-90 in Miami last night.  The Hawks got a complete team effort in that game as six players scored 11 points or more.  That has been the case all season with this Atlanta team, and it will continue tonight against a mediocre Milwaukee team.  Atlanta is 5-1 SU at home this season where they are averaging 113.3 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field and 40.0% shooting from three-point land.  The Hawks’ defense is only allowing 37.9% shooting from the field at home, and since Milwaukee’s offense has struggled against good defenses, this game is a mismatch even without Dwight Howard who is likely to miss this game after getting hurt last night.  We’ll lay the points with Atlanta in this game on Wednesday night.     

9* Play HAWKS (-).

This game will be played in Madison Square Garden, so neither team will have home court advantage.  Kansas comes into this game off a 103-99 overtime loss to Indiana four days ago.  The Jayhawks were not sharp at all on either end of the court in that game, but we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  Kansas shot just 30.4% (7-23) from three-point land while Indiana shot 48.4% (15-31) from three-point land.  That’s -24 points for the Jayhawks from beyond the arc, yet they only lost by 4 points in overtime.  Kansas is a loaded team this season, and they have tremendous depth on the perimeter and inside the paint, and the latter advantage over Duke will be a major factor in tonight’s game.

Duke is 2-0 on the season with those wins coming by a combined 80 points.  However, the Blue Devils played two inferior opponents in Marist and Grand Canyon.  Duke is taking a huge step-up in class tonight, and we expect the Blue Devils to lose their first game of the season.  Duke is playing shorthanded in the paint right now as 5-star recruits Harry Giles (knee) and Marques Bolden (leg) will be in street clothes tonight because of injuries.  The Blue Devils are extremely weak inside the paint, and they’ll be at a major disadvantage against Kansas in this game.  We’ll take the points with Kansas in this game on Tuesday night.         

10* Play KANSAS (+).

Dallas was in a terrible scheduling and situational spot last week for their game in Cleveland, but the Cowboys played a perfect game in their 35-10 blowout win.  Dallas will now play a back-to-back road set for the first time this season, so the spot is even worse than last week.  Aside from last week’s game in Cleveland, the Cowboys have played three other road games this season.  They were 3.5 and 5-point underdogs in two of those games (Washington and Green Bay), and they were only 1-point favorites against the 49ers in San Francisco.  Now they are getting less points in Pittsburgh against the Steelers who are a better team than the others they’ve played.  Remember, the Cowboys are led by a pair of rookies in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, so it’s hard to imagine them overcoming another bad spot in consecutive weeks.

Pittsburgh returns home off an ugly 21-14 road loss in Baltimore last week.  The Steelers have now lost three consecutive games, but two of those defeats came without QB Ben Roethlisberger under center.  Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled, but again, they’ve played with a backup quarterback in some games.  Still, the Steelers are averaging 23 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 20.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Pittsburgh is primed for a peak performance while the Cowboys are taking a monumental step-up in class.  We’ll back Pittsburgh in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play STEELERS (-).

LSU was on a tear since firing head coach Les Miles.  Interim head coach Ed Orgeron led the Tigers to three straight wins by a combined score of 125-38.  However, LSU ran into the best team in the country last week and they lost 10-0 to Alabama.  There’s no shame in that loss, and off their disappointing performance, we expect LSU to come with a focused effort.  LSU is averaging 26.1 points per game on 6.5 yards per play versus defenses that give up 24.7 points per game on just 5.5 yards per play.  The Tigers’ offense is going from facing the best defense in the country to facing one of the worst defenses in the SEC.  Arkansas is giving up 29.0 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.  The Razorbacks have been horrendous against the run, allowing 6.1 yards per carry (versus opponents that average just 4.9 ypr).  LSU has a potent ground game that is averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season (versus opponents that allow just 4.5 ypr), so the Tigers should dominate the line of scrimmage tonight.

Arkansas comes into this game off an upset home win as 3-point underdogs against Florida.  The Razorbacks went into that game off their bye week, and off a 31-10 victory, we expect a letdown, especially since they are now taking a major step-up in class.  The Arkansas offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 27.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play as a group this season.  Arkansas is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against LSU in this game.  In fact, the Razorbacks will face a Tigers’ defense that is only allowing 14.4 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.  That’s -13.1 points per game and -1.1 yards per play less than the opponents Arkansas has faced this season.  We’ll lay the points with LSU on Saturday night.  

9* Play LSU (-).

Miami, FL comes into this game with a 5-4 SU record, but they’ve actually lost four of their last five games.  The Hurricanes snapped their 4-game losing streak with a 51-28 win over Pittsburgh last week as 4.5-point home favorites.  Miami will now hit the road for the third time in four weeks, and they are simply laying way too many points in a poor scheduling spot.  Miami’s offense is averaging 34.9 points per game on 6.4 yards per play, but they’ve played a terrible group of opposing defenses that are giving up 31.9 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

Virginia comes into this game with a poor 2-7 record, but the team has been competitive under new head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  Three of the Cavaliers’ seven losses have come by 7 points or less, including two of their last three home games.  Virginia is averaging 27.8 points per game at home this season, and since Miami’s defense is giving up 24.5 points per game on the road, we expect the Cavaliers to score enough points to keep this game close throughout.  We’ll take Virginia plus the generous points in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play VIRGINIA (+).

Drexel is in rebuilding mode this season.  The Dragons are coming off an injury-riddled 6-25 season, and head coach Bruiser Flint was let go.  In steps former Army head coach Zach Spiker, and he has a major task on his hands.  Drexel is extremely young with newcomers all over the roster; only three seniors this season.  The Dragons are trying to run an up-tempo offense, but it’s going to take a lot of time for this team to come together.  “This is circumstance and happens in transition,” Spiker said.  “It’s nobody's fault. I don’t know that Year One will reflect what we’re trying do. This season will be about teaching the style. Our depth will be one of our bigger challenges throughout the season.”

Monmouth is built to win right away as the majority of their roster returns from last year’s 29-win team that made the NIT tournament.  The Hawks averaged 79.5 points per game last season while shooting 43.5% from the field and 36.6% from three-point land.  Monmouth is also a good free throw shooting team (76.8%) which helps them extend leads.  Monmouth is taking this game seriously, so we can expect a peak performance in their season opener.  “We have a lot of kids this year, we have more guys than we’ve ever had,” head coach King Rice said.  “We’re older and now we have six seniors. It’s exciting, it's been fun so far. It’s fun to have a mature team that is as hungry as they’ve ever been.”  Monmouth is the superior team, so we expect them to win this game by a big margin on Friday night.

10* Play MONMOUTH (-).

Cleveland comes into this game winless at 0-9 SU, and the Browns put in a pathetic effort in their 35-10 home loss to Dallas last Sunday.  However, Cleveland will now play with legitimate revenge tonight after blowing a 20-0 first quarter home lead against Baltimore back in Week 2.  The Browns went on to lose that game 25-20, so we expect a focused effort in this rematch tonight.  Overall, Cleveland’s offense is averaging 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.7 yards per play.  And that was without their full compliment of starters.  The Browns’ offense is finally at full strength, so they’ll play much better than they did last week.  Winless underdogs are a long-term 60% ATS play at this point in the season.

Baltimore came off their bye last week to beat Pittsburgh 21-14.  But that was another phony win by the Ravens as they scored on a 95-yard broken play and a blocked punt return.  Their only sustained offense resulted in two field goals.  Baltimore’s offense has underperformed greatly this season.  The Ravens are only averaging 19.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  Quarterback Joe Flacco is playing with a hurt shoulder, and his numbers are way down because of it.  The Ravens shouldn’t be laying this many points into any team, so we’ll back Cleveland in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play BROWNS (+).

North Carolina is 7-2 SU on the season with their two losses coming versus Georgia in the season opener and at home versus Virginia Tech.  The Tar Heels played a tough stretch of games in which they were on the road in three of four weeks right before their bye.  They won all three of those games, and went into their off week full of momentum.  After a week of rest, North Carolina came out and waxed Georgia Tech by 28 points (48-20) at home last week.  But now they must hit the road again, and this is simply a natural letdown spot for the Tar Heels on a short week.  North Carolina’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a terrible group of defenses that give up 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.

Duke comes into this game with a poor 3-6 SU record, and they are on a 3-game losing streak.  However, two of those three games were on the road, and the Blue Devils lost all three games by 10 points or less with two of the losses coming by just 3 points apiece.  Only one of Duke’s six losses this season has come by more than tonight’s posted pointspread and the Blue Devils are a profitable 6-3 ATS in all games.  Duke has played solid defense this season.  The Blue Devils are giving up just 23.9 points per game versus opponents that average 28.3 points per game.  Duke’s defense is only giving up 18.8 points per game on 4.7 yards per play at home this season.  We’ll take Duke plus the points in this game on Thursday night.

10* Play DUKE (+).

Boston heads to Washington off back-to-back losses with their last being an ugly 123-107 home defeat to the Denver Nuggets.  After that poor performance, Boston head coach Brad Stevens had some choice words for his team.  “It was horrible,” Stevens said.  “Everybody is disgusted with the way the team played. We know that’s not how we play and that something has to change and that starts with each other and started today in practice.”  Boston has had two full days of practice since, so we can certainly expect a strong bounce back team effort against the Wizards tonight.

Washington is having a poor season so far; the Wizards come into tonight’s game with a 1-5 SU record.  Washington has played a mediocre schedule as well, so their shortcomings cannot be attributed to their level of competition.  In fact, the Celtics will be the best team they’ve played this season, and they are catching them at the wrong time.  The Wizards have given up 112 points or more in four of their six games, and since Boston’s offense has scored 104 points or more in five of their six games, we don’t expect Washington’s defense to hold up in this game.  Boston is the superior team in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll back the Celtics in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play CELTICS.

Minnesota is having a disappointing season so far with a 1-4 SU record.  However, the Timberwolves have played much better basketball than their record indicates.  In fact, Minnesota has held big leads (15, 17 and 18 points) in three of their four losses this season.  The Timberwolves are averaging 60 points per game in the first half, but their problem has been in the third quarter; Minnesota ranks near the bottom in the league in point margin during those 12 minutes of play.  But tonight they will play a Brooklyn team that has similar struggles and ranks at the bottom in the same category.  Minnesota is loaded with young talent, including Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns who possess the speed to play at a quick pace.  The Timberwolves will get that pace tonight against a Brooklyn team that wants to play the same exact way.

Brooklyn comes into tonight’s game with a 2-4 SU record after losing three of their last four games.  The Nets have played a mediocre schedule, and they have faced a slew of teams missing important members of their team.  Brooklyn will be without starting point guard Jeremy Lin (hamstring) and backup point guard Greivis Vasquez (ankle) tonight, and their absence will be felt, especially since the Nets haven’t played a game in three days.  Brooklyn will be forced to use shooting guard Randy Foye at the point tonight, but he too is dealing with a nagging hamstring injury.  The Nets are really thin at the guard position for this game, so it’s hard to imagine them being able to trade points with the Timberwolves.  Minnesota is the much better team, so we’ll back the Timberwolves in this game on Tuesday night.          

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Buffalo has been a streaky team so far this season.  The Bills opened the season with back-to-back losses before winning four consecutive games.  Buffalo comes into tonight’s game in Seattle off two straight losses, so we certainly expect a strong effort from the Bills tonight, especially with a bye week on deck.  Buffalo’s offense has been extremely efficient this season.  The Bills are averaging 26.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 21.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Buffalo has scored 25 points or more in six of their eight games this season, and in the two games in which Seattle has given up more than 20 points, the Seahawks lost and won the other game by just 2 points.

Seattle is 4-2-1 SU on the season as they return home off back-to-back road games with another big road game at New England on Sunday night.  The Seahawks have underperformed greatly on the offensive side of the ball this season despite facing a collection of poor defenses.  Seattle is only averaging 18.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Quarterback Russell Wilson is clearly playing hurt, and that is having a major impact on Seattle being inefficient on offense.  This game should be close throughout, so we’ll take Buffalo plus the points on Monday night football.

10* Play BILLS (+).

Utah comes into this game with a 4-3 SU record (3-4 ATS) after winning 114-109 last night in New York.  They played their best offensive game of the season after shooting 50.7% (38-75) from the field and hitting 85.7% (30-35) from the free throw line.  Utah had six players score in double figures, so it was a complete team effort.  The Jazz will now play a back-to-back road set with this also being their third game in four nights, their fourth game in six nights, and their fifth game in seven nights.  This is simply a poor situational and scheduling spot for the Jazz, especially since they are laying points.

Philadelphia is winless (0-5 SU) on the season, but the 76ers have played a brutal schedule.  They have played Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Charlotte and Cleveland who are all much better teams.  Philadelphia has been a scrappy team so far this season (3-2 ATS) as three of their five losses have come by a total of 9 points (6, 2, and 1 point margins).  The 76ers will play their final home game before playing four of their next six games on the road, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  The home team is in a good spot while the road team is not, so we’ll take the 76ers plus the points in this game on Monday night.     

9* Play 76ERS (+).

Denver is back to their winning ways after two straight dominating victories by a combined score of 54-28.  The Broncos had lost their previous two games to the Falcons and Chargers, but they’ve righted their ship in the last two games.  Denver has an exceptional defense once again this season.  The Broncos are only giving up 17.0 points per game on 4.8 yards per play versus offenses that average 25.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  On the road, Denver is only allowing 15 points per game on 4.5 yards per play.

Oakland comes into tonight’s game off a fortunate overtime win in Tampa Bay last Sunday.  The Raiders trailed by a touchdown with just over a minute to play before forcing overtime.  Oakland has good offensive numbers this season, but they’ve faced a collection of bad defenses that allow 25.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Raiders will now face a Denver defense that is giving up -8.7 points per game and -1.0 yards per play less than what they have seen.  The Broncos hold a substantial defensive edge in this game as the Raiders are allowing 25.4 points per game on a horrendous 6.6 yards per play (versus opponents that average 24.8 ppg and 5.8 yppl).  We’ll back Denver in this game for first place in the AFC West division on Sunday night.

9* Play BRONCOS.

Jacksonville is just 2-5 on the season, and they come off an ugly 36-22 national TV loss to the Titans on a Thursday night.  Nobody will want any part of the Jaguars in this game, but this is a good bounce back spot for the team.  Jacksonville has played a tough schedule, but they’ve been a competitive team in four of their seven games.  Jacksonville’s offense has underperformed, so they fired offensive coordinator Greg Olson.  With extra time to prepare, we expect a spirited effort out of the Jacksonville offense this afternoon.  Kansas City’s defense has alternated good games and bad games this season, and if that pattern holds, look for a poor performance from the Chiefs stop unit.

Kansas City comes into this game with a 5-2 record, and the Chiefs are on a 3-game winning streak.  However, Kansas City has underachieved on the offensive side of the ball.  The Chiefs’ offense is only averaging 23.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  And that was with their full compliment of starters.  Kansas City will be without QB Alex Smith (concussion), running back Jamal Charles (knee), and running back Spencer Ware (concussion).  The Chiefs’ second unit offense will face a Jacksonville defense that is only giving up 5.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.8 yards per play.  We’ll take Jacksonville plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

Dallas was fortunate to win at home against the Eagles last Sunday night.  The Cowboys trailed 23-13 in the fourth quarter before rallying back to win in overtime.  Dallas will now hit the road off that big divisional win, and they are are simply laying way too many points.  The Cowboys have played three road games so far this season.  They were 3.5 and 5-point underdogs in two of those games, and they were only 1-point favorites against the 49ers in San Francisco.  The Cowboys are led by a pair of rookies in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, so having them lay more than a touchdown on the road off a big spotlight win cannot be a good thing, especially with another big game at Pittsburgh next week.

Cleveland comes into this game winless at 0-8 SU, but winless dogs at this point in the season are a long-term 60% ATS play, plus the Browns have been a competitive team in the majority of their games.  The Browns have only played three home games, and they should have won two of those games.  They lost by 5 points to the Ravens and by 3 points to the Jets last week.  Cleveland is at home for the second consecutive week for the first time this season, so we expect a peak performance in this game.  Overall, Cleveland is averaging 5.9 yards per play versus defenses that allow 5.8 yards per play.  And that was without their full compliment of starters.  The Browns’ offense will finally be at full strength, and since they are catching Dallas in a bad spot, we’ll take Cleveland plus the points in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BROWNS (+).

Alabama is the best team in the country as the Crimson Tide come into this game with a perfect 8-0 SU record on the season.  Alabama also comes into this game off a bye, but not sure that’s a good thing after winning their last two games by a combined score of 82-24.  The Crimson Tide offense has faced a collection of poor defensive teams that are giving up 27.5 points per game on 5.6 yards per play as a group this season.  Alabama is taking a huge step-up in defensive class against LSU in this game.  In fact, the Crimson Tide will face a Tigers’ defense that is only allowing 14.2 points per game on 4.4 yards per play at home.  That’s -13.3 points per game and -1.2 yards per play less than the opponents Alabama has faced this season.

LSU has been on a tear since firing head coach Les Miles.  Interim head coach Ed Orgeron is 3-0 SU/ATS with those three wins coming by a combined score of 125-38.  Like Alabama, LSU will come into this game off a bye.  But it’s a much stronger angle for LSU since they are home underdogs while playing with legitimate revenge.  LSU is averaging 36.4 points per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per play at home this season.  Alabama does have a stout defense, but they have been much weaker on the road, giving up 14.6 points per game and 1.0 yards per play more away than at home this season.  When the season began two months ago, LSU was a 1-point favorite in this game.  Now they are getting more than a full touchdown which provides solid line value.  This game will come right down to the wire, so we’ll take the points with LSU on Saturday night.  

10* Play LSU (+).

Iowa comes into this game with a 5-3 SU record with their last game being a 17-9 home loss to Wisconsin.  All three of the Hawkeyes’ losses this season have come by 8 points or less with their average loss coming by just 5.7 points per game.  Iowa comes into this game off a bye week, so they’ve had extra time to prepare.  And since they are also off a home loss, we expect a peak performance in this game.  The Hawkeyes are averaging 28.1 points per game on 5.6 yards per play versus defenses that give up just 26.5 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Iowa’s running game averages 246 yards per game on 5.6 yards per rush on the road.  They will face a Penn State defense that allows 183 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush.  Iowa’s ability to run the ball will have a major impact on the outcome of this game.

Penn State is 6-2 SU on the season, and they come off their two best games of the year.  The Nittany Lions beat Ohio State 24-21 as a 19-point home underdog two weeks ago, and last week they beat Purdue 62-24 on the road.  Off those back-to-back big performances, we expect Penn State to regress sharply in this game.  The Nittany Lions’ offense is averaging 31.6 points per game on 6.0 yards per play at home this season, but they’ve put those numbers up against a poor slate of opposing defenses.  Penn State will now face an Iowa defense that only gives up 16.3 points per game on 5.2 yards per play on the road this season.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Iowa on Saturday night.

9* Play IOWA (+).

Missouri is just 2-6 SU on the season, but the Tigers are better than their record indicates.  Missouri is averaging 33.1 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that give up 30.4 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  The Tigers will face a South Carolina defense that has good seasonal numbers, but the Gamecocks have played a weak slate of opposing offenses that only average 27.6 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Missouri’s offense will be a step-up in class for South Carolina, and that’s not a good thing since the Gamecocks have given up 21 points or more in four consecutive games.

South Carolina is 4-4 SU on the season after winning their last two games.  The Gamecocks barely survived a terrible UMass team 34-28 two weeks ago as a 20-point favorite before beating Tennessee 24-21 as 14.5-point home underdogs last week.  Off those back-to-back close games, South Carolina is in a major flat spot, especially since they are laying points in this game.  South Carolina’s offense has played below average football this season.  The Gamecocks are only averaging 17.7 points per game on 4.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 27.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  South Carolina shouldn’t be laying this many points, so we’ll take Missouri in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play MISSOURI (+).

Golden State comes into this game with a 4-1 SU record after winning their last four games, including last night’s 122-96 waxing of the Oklahoma City Thunder.  That was a circled game for the Warriors, especially Kevin Durant who scored 39 points on 62.5% (15-24) shooting from the field, including 63.6% (7-11) shooting from three-point land against his former team.  Overall, the Warriors shot 51.1% (46-90) from the field, 46.7% (14-30) from three-point land, and 80% (16-20) from the free throw line.  Golden State will now hit the road for the fourth time in their last five games.  The Warriors will also be playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  After tonight’s game, the Warriors will have two days off before playing at home on Monday night.

Los Angeles returns home off a 4-game road trip where they went just 1-3 SU.  However, the Lakers have been a scrappy team so far this season as they are 4-1 ATS with only one loss coming by more than 7 points.  Los Angeles will be playing just their second home game of the season, so we expect a peak performance tonight.  Prior to holding Oklahoma City to 96 points last night, the Warriors’ defense had allowed 100 points or more in all four of their other games this season, while going just 1-3 ATS.  This is a bad situational and scheduling spot for Golden State, so we’ll take the Lakers plus the points in this home game on Friday night.

10* Play LAKERS (+).

Atlanta is 5-3 SU on the season, but the Falcons are in a terrible scheduling and situational spot for tonight’s game in Tampa Bay.  The Falcons are off three consecutive close, high-scoring games while now traveling on a short week and laying points on the road.  Atlanta’s last three games were all decided by 3 points or less with one of those games going into overtime.  The Falcons have to be fatigued, and that may show tonight, especially since they’ve had less time to recover.  Atlanta’s defense has been terrible all season; the Falcons are giving up 28.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus offenses that average just 25.0 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

Tampa Bay is winless at home this season, but their three losses have come against Oakland, Denver, and Los Angeles who are a combined 15-8 SU on the season.  The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 31-24 in Atlanta back in Week 1, and they know they are capable of winning again.  Quarterback Jameis Winston had a terrific game as he completed 71.9% (23-for-32) of his passes for 281 yards with 4 touchdown passes and one interception.  There’s no reason Winston can’t repeat that performance tonight, especially since Atlanta’s defense has gotten progressively worse since that first meeting.  Tampa Bay matches up well against Atlanta as the Bucs are 3-0 SU/ATS the past two seasons, plus Tampa's defensive coordinator is now Mike Smith who was the former head coach for Atlanta.  We’ll back the Buccaneers plus the points in this home game on Thursday night.

10* Play BUCCANEERS (+).

Detroit comes into this game with a 3-1 record after winning their last three games.  The Pistons played all of those games at home, including last night’s 102-89 victory over the New York Knicks.  The Pistons will now hit the road for the first time since their season opener which resulted in a 109-91 defeat in Toronto against the Raptors.  Detroit will also be playing their third game in four nights, and their fourth game in six nights.  After tonight’s game, the Pistons will have two days off before playing at home once again on Saturday.  This is a bad situational and scheduling spot for Detroit, especially since they are laying points on the road after shooting 61.5% (8-13) from three-point land last night.

Brooklyn got embarrassed by 30 points (118-88) in their last home game on Monday night.  The Nets allowed the Bulls to shoot 50.6% (45-89) from the field and 40.7% (11-27) from three-point land in that ugly loss.  Brooklyn has had a day off since, and with another game in front of their home fans, we expect a peak performance tonight.  Brooklyn is playing for new head coach Kenny Atkinson who was most recently the top assistant for the Atlanta Hawks.  Atkinson plays the ‘space and shoot’ style, and it actually fits the newly molded Nets.  Brooklyn will have success against the Pistons defense, so we’ll take the Nets plus the points in this game on Wednesday night.     

10* Play NETS (+).

Memphis comes into tonight’s game with a 2-1 record, but the Grizzlies could very well be 0-3 on the season.  Memphis beat Minnesota at home in their season opener, but the Grizzlies needed to rally from a 17-point deficit in that game.  Memphis needed overtime to beat the Washington Wizards in their last game.  The Grizzlies out-shot the Wizards 48.4% (15-31) to 20.0% (5-25) from three-point land, and they still needed to win that game in overtime.  That’s not a good sign at all, especially since they’ll be playing on the road tonight.  In their lone road game of the season, Memphis lost 111-104 in New York against the Knicks.  

Minnesota is winless on the season at 0-2, but both of those games came on the road.  The Timberwolves will play their home opener tonight, and we expect a peak performance in this game.  Minnesota is primed to make a big step forward in 2016 despite their two losses so far this season.  Minnesota is loaded with young talent, including Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns.  The Timberwolves actually dominated the first meeting against Memphis as they out-scored the Grizzlies 44-34 inside the paint, held a 13-5 fast break points edge, and held a 17-6 biggest lead edge as well.  Minnesota is the better team, so we’ll back the Timberwolves in this game on Tuesday night.          

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Minnesota and Chicago come into tonight’s game from opposite ends of the spectrum.  The Vikings are 5-1 SU/ATS on the season with their lone loss coming last week at Philadelphia.  The Bears are just 1-6 SU/ATS on the season with their lone win coming by just 3 points over a poor Detroit team.  Minnesota has built their record by beating bad teams, but despite that, they’ve played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  The Vikings are averaging 21.5 points per game on just 4.9 yards per play versus defenses that give up 21.8 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Chicago’s defense is only allowing 20 points per game on 5.0 yards per play at home this season, so they should be able to contain Minnesota's weak offensive unit tonight.

Chicago has had a terrible season so far, but the Bears have at least been competitive on their home field.  The Bears are just 1-2 SU at home, but one of their losses came by just a single point (17-16) while the other loss came against a decent Eagles squad.  Chicago’s offense is only averaging 15.9 points per game, but they are gaining 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.8 yppl) which makes the Bears' points per game average misleading.  Chicago will put quarterback Jay Cutler back under center tonight, so maybe he can provide a little more pop.  This game figures to be a low-scoring defensive slugfest, so we’ll back Chicago plus the points at home on Monday night football.

10* Play BEARS (+).

Philadelphia got back to their winning ways after defeating the Minnesota Vikings 21-10 last week.  The Eagles had lost their previous two games to the Lions and Redskins, but those losses came by a combined 8 points.  Philadelphia has played above average football on both sides of the ball this season.  The Eagles are averaging 26 points per game versus defenses that only give up 22.8 points per game.  Philadelphia’s defense only gives up 14.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus offenses that average 21.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. 

Dallas comes into tonight’s game off their bye, but that’s not a good thing considering they had won five consecutive games.  The Cowboys are led by a pair of rookies in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott, so having their momentum halted mid-season may have a negative impact on how they perform tonight, especially against a strong Philadelphia defense.  Dallas has faced soft defenses so far this season, but tonight they will face a defense that is giving up 9 points per game and 0.2 yards per play less than what they have seen.  We’ll take the points in a game that will go right down to the wire.

9* Play EAGLES (+).

Detroit and Houston both come into today’s game with 4-3 records on the season, but there’s no doubt that the Texans have played the much tougher schedule.  The Lions opened the year at 1-3 despite playing bad teams like the Colts, Titans, and Bears.  Detroit has played their last three games at home while going 3-0 versus the Eagles, Rams, and Redskins.  However, all three of those games were close and decided late; they beat the Eagles 24-23, the Rams 31-28, and the Redskins 20-17 on a last second touchdown last week.  Now Detroit must hit the road off three consecutive tough games while facing a team that is undefeated on their home field.  Detroit’s defense has been terrible on the road where they are giving up 28.7 points per game on 6.6 yards per play this season.

Houston’s three losses this season have come on the road against New England, Minnesota, and Denver.  The Patriots, Vikings, and Broncos are a combined 16-4 SU on the season, and all three teams have excellent defenses.  Houston’s offense has struggled, but again, they’ve played a tough slate of defenses that are only giving up 20.3 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  In four games against lesser defenses, Houston has averaged 23.8 points per game.  The Texans are taking a monumental step-down in defensive class against the Lions in this game, so we expect a breakout offensive performance this afternoon.  We’ll back Houston in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play TEXANS (-).

Clemson is a perfect 7-0 SU on the season, but they’ve only played two ‘real’ opponents so far.  The Tigers struggled mightily at Auburn in their season opener; they won that game 19-13.  Their other tough game ended in a 42-36 come from behind home win over Louisville.  The Tigers’ offense is averaging 36.6 points per game on 6.2 yards per play, but they’ve put those numbers up against a poor slate of opposing defenses.  Clemson will now face a Florida State defense that only gives up 17.0 points per game on 5.6 yards per play at home.  That’s 19.6 points and 0.6 yards per play of production that Clemson has too make up in order to reach their seasonal averages.

Florida State comes into this game with a 5-2 SU record, including a 2-1 home record where they’ve won by a combined score of 69-14.  The Seminoles are averaging 34.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play versus defenses that give up 28.4 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  Clemson has good defensive numbers, but they’ve faced offenses that average 30 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Florida State’s running game averages 213 yards per game on 4.9 yards per rush.  Clemson allowed Louisville to run for 273 yards, and the Tigers trailed in that game 36-28 on their home field late in the fourth quarter.  The look-ahead line was Florida State -3 when this season began, so recent results have now created solid value with the Seminoles.  This game will be close throughout, so we’ll take the points with Florida State as a home underdog on Saturday night.

10* Play FLORIDA STATE (+).

Boston heads to Charlotte off a 105-99 loss to the Bulls in Chicago on Thursday night.  The Celtics were in a tough spot for that game after winning a high-scoring 122-117 shootout at home against Brooklyn the night before.  Boston had a day to rest off a loss, so we expect a peak performance by the Celtics tonight.  Boston has high expectations this season, and rightfully so.  The team is extremely well-coached by Brad Stevens, and their roster is loaded with talent from top to bottom.  Boston is 4-1 in their last five meetings versus Charlotte; the Celtics won those games by an average of 9.5 points per game.   

Charlotte is a perfect 2-0 SU on the season after winning at Milwaukee and at Miami.  The Hornets were road favorites in both of those games, so the wins were expected.  Charlotte also played a pair of teams that are worse than they are, but now they are taking a monumental step-up in class against Boston.  The Hornets are also playing on a back-to-back set, and this will also be their third game in four nights.  While it’s extremely early in the season, this is still a bad situational and scheduling spot for the Hornets.  Boston is the superior team in a good bounce back spot, so we’ll back the Celtics in this game on Saturday night.     

9* Play CELTICS (-).

Miami, FL comes into this game with a 4-3 SU record, but they are on a 3-game SU and ATS losing streak.  The Hurricanes will play back-to-back road games, and they will also be on the road for the fourth time in their last six games.  Miami’s offense is in terrible current form as they’ve scored 19 points or less in each of their last three games while scoring a total of just 48 points in those games.  Overall, Miami is averaging 33.7 points per game on 6.8 yards per play, but they’ve played a terrible group of opposing defenses that are giving up 31.6 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Hurricanes will now play a Notre Dame defense that is only allowing 27.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  That’s 3.9 points per game and 0.4 yards per play less than the defenses Miami has faced this season.

Notre Dame has had a disappointing season to say the least.  The Irish come into this game with a poor 2-5 SU record, but they’ve been a competitive bunch.  All five of Notre Dame’s losses have come by 8 points or less with their defeats coming by a total of 28 points.  The Irish are off back-to-back losses, but they are also off a week of rest, so we expect a peak performance in this game.  Notre Dame is averaging 30.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that only gave up 26.8 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Those numbers show Notre Dame is a much better team than their record indicates.  We’ll back Notre Dame in this game on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NOTRE DAME.

Indiana comes into this game with a 1-0 record after out-lasting Dallas 130-121 in overtime on Wednesday night.  The Pacers blew a 14-point lead in that game because of their new style of play.  Indiana got rid of Frank Vogel and hired Nate McMillan in order to play at a much faster pace.  While McMillan has agreed to the change, his teams of the past were more defensive minded while playing at a slower pace.  He’s out of his comfort zone, and that was quite noticeable on the defensive end in their season opener.  Indiana shot 50.5% (47-93) from the field and an incredible 52.6% (10-19) from three-point, but they needed to win in overtime because of their defense.  That’s not a good sign of things to come for the Pacers.

Brooklyn lost their season opener in Boston; the Nets suffered a close 122-117 loss to the Celtics.  But that was an impressive performance, especially since Boston is expected to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.  Brooklyn is also playing for a new head coach this season; Kenny Atkinson was most recently the top assistant for the Atlanta Hawks.  Atkinson also likes to play the ‘space and shoot’ style, and it actually fits the newly molded Nets.  Brooklyn took 97 shots against Boston, and since Indiana wants to play fast as well, the Nets will have success against the Pacers poor defense.  We’ll take Brooklyn plus the points in this game on Friday night.     

9* Play NETS (+).

California is 4-3 SU on the season, but the Golden Bears are 0-3 SU in true road games.  They lost at San Diego State, Arizona State, and Oregon State.  USC is a much better team than those three opponents, so California is up against it tonight.  California’s defense gave up 45 points or more in all three of those road losses, and that is not a surprise as their stop unit has been absolutely atrocious this season.  The Golden Bears are allowing 41.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  On the road, California has given up 43.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play.

USC also comes into this game with a 4-3 SU record, but their losses have come against teams like Alabama, Stanford and Utah.  The Trojans have now won three straight games with their last being a confidence-building 48-14 blowout at Arizona, so they come into this game with good momentum.  USC’s offense is averaging 35.7 points per game on 6.5 yards per play at home this season, so they will score at will on California’s terrible defense.  USC’s defense has been tremendous at home where they are only giving up 14.7 points per game on 4.5 yards per play this season.  USC has 11 days of rest for this game, while California must travel and play on a short week (only 5 days of rest) after a draining national TV overtime game versus Oregon last week.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the USC on Thursday night.

10* Play USC (-).

Jacksonville is just 2-4 SU on the season, but they have played a tough schedule.  The Jaguars have also been a competitive team in four of their six games, and against an opponent on their level tonight, they’ll be in this game from the start at Tennessee.  Jacksonville’s offense has yet to get going this season, but again, they have faced a strong group of opposing defenses that give up 24.2 points per game.  The Jaguars will now face a Tennessee defense that is allowing 25.5 points per game on 5.9 yards per play at home this season.

Tennessee comes into this game with a 3-4 SU record, and the Titans may actually be worse than their record indicates, especially since they are just 2-5 ATS.  Tennessee has played a weak schedule yet they have still underachieved greatly.  Tennessee’s offense is only averaging 20.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that allow 23.8 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Jacksonville’s defense is only giving up 4.9 yards per play versus offenses that average 5.7 yards per play, so Tennessee’s offense will struggle to move the ball with consistency in this game.  We’ll back Jacksonville in this game on Thursday night.

9* Play JAGUARS (+).

Minnesota improved by 13 wins last season, and the Timberwolves are primed to make another big step forward in 2016.  Minnesota is loaded with young talent, including Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, and Karl-Anthony Towns.  The Timberwolves will be playing for new head coach Tom Thibodeau this season, and his presence on the bench will have a major impact on this year’s results.  Minnesota was going nowhere with Sam Mitchell, and the fact that they actually won 13 more games despite him shows just how talented this team really is.  

Memphis is a shell of the team they'll be later in the season.  The Grizzlies are decimated by injuries right now with Tony Allen (knee), Chandler Parsons (knee), and Brandon Wright (ankle) all out tonight.  Marc Gasol will be playing on a minutes restriction because he’s dealing with nagging ankle and foot injuries.  Gasol will not be the only Memphis player at less than full strength tonight as Troy Daniels and Jarell Martin are also dealing with lingering injuries.  Memphis will also be playing in a new system for new head coach David Fizdale, so expect this team to struggle early and often this season.  Minnesota is the superior team, so we’ll back the Timberwolves in this game on Wednesday night.          

10* Play TIMBERWOLVES (-).

Houston and Denver both come into tonight’s game with 4-2 records on the season, but one can argue that the Texans have played the tougher schedule.  Houston’s two losses came to New England and Minnesota, and both of those games were on the road.  The Patriots and Vikings are a combined 11-2 SU on the season.  Houston’s offense has struggled, but again, they’ve played a tough slate of defenses that are only giving up 20.9 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  The Texans will certainly face another tough defense tonight in Denver, but we expect the Texans to stay in this game with their defense.

Denver has played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  The Broncos are only averaging 23.3 points per game on 5.3 yards per play versus defenses that allow 27.1 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  Things won’t get any easier for the Broncos tonight as they’ll face a Houston defense that is only giving up 21.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play this season.  Denver will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game, and that will prevent them from winning this game by more than a touchdown.  We’ll back Houston on Monday night football.

10* Play TEXANS (+).

Seattle comes into tonight’s game in Arizona with a good looking 4-1 record on the season.  However, the Seahawks have played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  Seattle is only averaging 21 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 26.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Things won’t get any easier for the Seahawks tonight as they’ll face an Arizona defense that is only giving up 12.5 points per game on 4.9 yards per play at home this season.  Seattle will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.

Arizona is only 3-3 on the season, but the Cardinals just got quarterback Carson Palmer back on the field last week.  Arizona has had to win games with their defense in the absence of Palmer, and the stop unit has been terrific.  Overall, the Cardinals are only allowing 17.3 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense is averaging 25.5 points per game versus defenses that only give up 23.6 points per game, so they’ve been much better than Seattle on that side of the ball.  We’ll back the Cardinals in this game on Sunday night.

9* Play CARDINALS (-).

Baltimore returns to New York for the second consecutive week after losing 27-23 to the Giants last Sunday.  The Ravens are now 3-3 on the season after opening with a perfect 3-0 record.  Baltimore’s offense has underperformed greatly this season.  The Ravens are only averaging 19.5 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 24.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Quarterback Joe Flacco is playing with a hurt shoulder, and he missed two days of practice this week because of it.  Baltimore will also be without their best pass rusher, Elvis Dumervil (foot), Terrell Suggs (biceps), linebacker C.J. Mosley (thigh), wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. (ankle), and lineman Marshal Yanda (shoulder) are all out as well.  The Ravens are a mash unit right now, so the Jets are catching them at the right time.

New York has had a disappointing season; the Jets come into this game with a 1-5 record.  But to their defense, they’ve played a brutal schedule against teams like Seattle, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo.  The Jets have also played four of their six games on the road, including four of their last five games.  New York’s last home game came three weeks ago, so they will be primed for a big effort in front of their fans this afternoon.  New York’s offense has struggled mightily, so Geno Smith will start at quarterback in hopes of turning things around.  Smith’s mobility will play a key role in this game, especially since Baltimore’s front seven is decimated by injuries.  We’ll back the Jets in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play JETS (-).

Texas A&M is a perfect 6-0 SU on the season, but the Aggies have been an extremely fortunate team.  They won a pair of overtime games versus Tennessee and UCLA, and another win came against an inferior FCS Prairie View A&M.  They also beat a terrible South Carolina team.  The Aggies are taking a monumental step-up in class against Alabama in this game.  Texas A&M’s offense is averaging 40.2 points per game on 6.8 yards per play, but they’ve put those numbers up against a group of defenses that give up 30.7 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.  The Crimson Tide defense is only giving up 15 points per game on 4.3 yards per play versus offenses that average 31.2 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  At home, Alabama is only allowing 5.3 points per game on 3.5 yards per play this year.

Alabama is the best team in the country.  The Crimson Tide are a perfect 7-0 SU while winning by an average of +30.4 points per game.  Alabama is averaging 45.4 points per game on 7.0 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 28.7 points per game on 5.6 yards per play.  Texas A&M’s defense is only giving up 19.2 points per game on 5.3 yards per play.  However, they played a group of terrible offenses that only average 22.9 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  The Aggies’ defense is taking a monumental step-up in offensive class against Alabama, so expect them to struggle mightily in this game.  Texas A&M is giving up 172 rushing yards per game on the road while Alabama’s offense is averaging 266 rushing yards per game on 6.2 yards per rush this season.  This is a terrible matchup for Texas A&M, so we’ll lay the points with Alabama on Saturday afternoon. 

10* Play ALABAMA (-).

Purdue is 3-3 SU on the season, but they’ve fired head coach Darrell Hazell, and they’ll be led by an interim coach going forward.  The program is in disarray, so it’s hard to imagine they’ll be competitive in this game versus Nebraska.  Purdue’s offense is only averaging 20.5 points per game on 4.2 yards per play on the road this season.  The Boilermakers will now face a Nebraska defense that only gives up 18.3 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Purdue lost 50-7 at Maryland three weeks ago, and Nebraska is a significantly better team, so the Boilermakers will be in for a long afternoon.

Nebraska comes into this game with a perfect 6-0 SU and a 4-1-1 ATS record on the season.  The Cornhuskers have won their six games by a combined score of 212-110.  Nebraska is averaging 35.3 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 30.0 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Purdue’s defense has given up 40.5 points per game on a whopping 7.5 yards per play on the road this season.  Nebraska’s running game averages 221 yards per game on 4.7 yards per rush; the Boilermakers give up 357 yards per game on 7.8 yards per rush on the road.  Purdue is just 5-33 SU versus FBS teams the past four seasons.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the Cornhuskers on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NEBRASKA (-).

North Carolina is 5-2 SU on the season with their two losses coming to Georgia in the season opener and at home versus Virginia Tech.  The Tar Heels last three wins have all come by 7 points or less.  North Carolina won 20-13 as 6-point road underdogs at Miami last week, but now they are laying double digits while playing their second consecutive road game.  In fact, North Carolina will be playing their third road game in the last four weeks, so this is not a good scheduling spot for the Tar Heels.  North Carolina’s offense has good seasonal numbers, but they’ve faced a terrible group of defenses that give up 29.1 points per game on 5.9 yards per play.

Virginia comes into this game with a 2-4 record SU, but a solid 4-2 ATS and they are improving.  The Cavaliers opened the season with three consecutive losses, but have gone 2-1 SU since.  Head coach Bronco Mendenhall is in his first season, and after a rough start, his team is finally comfortable in his system.  Virginia is averaging 33.3 points per game on 6.3 yards per play at home this season.  North Carolina’s defense is giving up 6.1 yards per play on the road this season, so look for a strong offensive performance by the Cavaliers in this game.  Virginia is a competitive team that is on a current 16-0 ATS run when getting +5 points or more.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll back Virginia as a big home underdog on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play VIRGINIA (+).

Chicago comes into this game with a 1-5 SU/ATS record, and the Bears are just as bad as their record indicates.  Chicago is off back-to-back tough losses; they lost 29-23 at Indianapolis after blowing a 4th quarter lead, and last week they lost 17-16 at home to Jacksonville after blowing a fourth quarter lead once again.  Now they must travel on a short week and face a motivated Green Bay team off a home loss.  Chicago’s offense has underperformed greatly this season.  The Bears are only averaging 16.8 points per game versus defenses that allow 22.4 points per game.

Green Bay is 3-2 SU/ATS on the season, but their two losses have come against the Vikings and Cowboys who are a combined 10-1 SU on the season.  The Packers lost 30-16 at home to Dallas last week, so we can expect a strong bounce back performance tonight.  Green Bay’s offense has yet to get going this season, but they have faced a strong group of opposing defenses that are only giving up 20.6 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  The Packers will now face a Chicago defense that is allowing 27.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play on the road this season.  We expect a peak performance by Green Bay, so we’ll back the Packers in this home divisional game on Thursday night.

9* Play PACKERS (-).

New York comes into tonight’s game in Arizona with just a 1-4 SU record on the season.  The Jets have played below average football on the offensive side of the ball.  New York is only averaging 18.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 19.6 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Things won’t get any easier for the Jets tonight as they’ll face an Arizona defense that is only giving up 15.7 points per game on 5.0 yards per play at home this season.  New York will have a difficult time moving the ball with any type of consistency in this game.

Arizona is only 2-3 SU on the season, but the Cardinals will get quarterback Carson Palmer back on the field tonight, so we expect a peak performance in this game.  Arizona has had to win games with their defense in the absence of Palmer, and the stop unit has been terrific.  Overall, the Cardinals are only allowing 20.2 points per game on 4.9 yards per play.  Arizona’s offense will have a strong game tonight as they’ll be facing a New York defense that is giving up 28.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play on the road this season.  The Jets pass defense has been horrendous, allowing 72% completions and 8.7 yards per pass in all games (versus opponents that average just 6.9 ypp).  Arizona is better on both sides of the ball, so we’ll back the Cardinals at home on Monday night football.

10* Play CARDINALS (-).

Indianapolis is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot for tonight’s game in Houston.  The Colts played in London two weeks ago, and they returned home to play the Bears last week.  Teams usually have a bye following the long travel to London, but the Colts did not.  Now they will be on the road again after a comeback high-scoring game last week.  Indianapolis beat Chicago 29-23 despite trailing by 4 points with less than 4 minutes to play in that game.  The Colts’ defense is terrible as they are giving up 29.6 points per game on 6.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 22.8 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.

Houston comes into this game with a 3-2 record, but they’ve lost two of their last three games.  The Texans lost at New England and at Minnesota, so there’s no shame in losing to two of the best teams in the league, especially on the road.  Houston is taking a major step-down in class tonight against Indianapolis, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  The Texans’ offense has poor seasonal numbers overall, but those numbers are skewed due to their shutout loss at New England and their 13-point performance in Minnesota last week.  At home, the Texans are averaging 23 points per game, so they should have little trouble scoring on the Colts.  We’ll back Houston in this game on Sunday night. 

9* Play TEXANS (-).

Baltimore comes into this game with a 3-2 record, but the Ravens are much worse than their winning record indicates.  Baltimore opened the season at 3-0, but they won each of those games by 6 points or less.  The Ravens beat the Bills 13-7 at home before winning back-to-back road games at Cleveland (25-20) and at Jacksonville (19-17).  They should have lost both of those games, but they got extremely fortunate and won in the final minutes.  Baltimore’s offense has underperformed greatly this season.  The Ravens are only averaging 18.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 25.3 points per game on 6.0 yards per play.  New York’s defense has been terrific this season; they are giving up just 21.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play versus offenses that average 25.1 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.

New York has had a disappointing season; the Giants come into this game with a 2-3 record.  They won their first two games of the season, but they are currently on a 3-game losing streak.  However, New York played at Minnesota and at Green Bay in back-to-back weeks.  There’s no shame in losing those two games.  New York’s last home game resulted in a 29-27 loss to Washington, so we can expect the Giants to bring their ‘A’ game this afternoon.  New York’s offense has yet to get going this season, but to their defense, they have faced a strong group of opposing defenses that are only giving up 21.7 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  We expect a peak performance by New York, so we’ll back the Giants in this game on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play GIANTS (-).

Southern Mississippi is 4-2 SU on the season, but they’ve played six terrible teams.  The Golden Eagles own wins against Kentucky, FCS Savannah State, UTEP, and Rice; two of those games came on their home field.  Last week, Southern Mississippi lost 55-32 at a poor Texas-San Antonio team despite out-gaining them by 557-532 in yardage.  Southern Mississippi’s offense is averaging 40.2 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that allow 35 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  The Golden Eagles will now face a LSU defense that only gives up 14.8 points per game on 4.8 yards per play.  That’s -20.2 points per game less, and -1.5 yards per play less than the defenses that Southern Mississippi has faced this season.

LSU comes into this game with a 3-2 SU record, but their two losses came against good teams in Wisconsin and Auburn.  The Tigers won their last home game 42-7 over Missouri, so they come into this game with good momentum.  LSU is averaging 33 points per game on 6.7 yards per play at home this season.  Southern Mississippi’s defense is giving up 27 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 21.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play.  On the road, Southern Mississippi is allowing 32.3 points per game on a whopping 7.9 yards per play.  This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the LSU on Saturday night.

10* Play LSU (-).

Mississippi is 3-2 SU on the season, and they’ll be playing their first true road game of the year.  The Rebels’ two losses have come against Florida State and Alabama, so there’s no shame in losing to those two teams.  Mississippi also comes into this game off a bye, but considering they won their last two games by a combined score of 93-42, a week off did not necessarily come at a good time.  Mississippi was a 7.5-point home favorite against Arkansas last season, and the Razorbacks won that game after they put-up 605 yards of total offense.  Mississippi is now playing at Arkansas, and they are laying 7.5 points once again, but this time it’s on the road.  This line doesn’t make much sense, and my power ratings say the Rebels should only be a 6-point favorite in this game.  In their lone game away from home on a neutral field against Florida State, the Rebels gave up 45 points on 6.2 yards per play.

Arkansas comes into this game off a 49-30 home loss to Alabama.  The Razorbacks deserved better in that game as they put-up 473 yards of total offense on the Crimson Tide while winning the first down battle 25-16.  Arkansas also converted 50% (8-for-16) on third downs, but five costly turnovers did them in.  Arkansas’ offense has been excellent at home this season where they are averaging 36.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play.  They will face a Mississippi rush defense that is allowing 215 yards per game on 4.9 yards per rush.  The Razorbacks’ ability to run the ball at home (189 yards on 4.8 yards per rush per game) gives them a nice matchup edge in this game.  We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Arkansas on Saturday night.

9* Play ARKANSAS (+).

Central Michigan is 4-2 SU on the season, but they could very well be 2-4 instead.  The Chippewas won at Oklahoma State on a fluke play which shouldn’t have counted, and they only beat Ball State by 3 points at home last week.  Central Michigan has also played four of their six games at home, and their two road games resulted in a loss at Virginia and the aforementioned game at Oklahoma State.  The Chippewas’ offense has faced a group of terrible defenses that give up 30.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  While it’s true Northern Illinois’ defense has poor seasonal numbers, do note that they’ve played a collection of offenses that average 35.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.  Central Michigan’s offense actually has a difficult matchup against the Huskies’ defense in this game.

Northern Illinois comes into this game with a poor 1-5 SU record.  However, the Huskies are a much better team than that record suggests.  Northern Illinois has played four of their six games on the road, and their two home games were against better teams (San Diego State and Western Michigan).  The Huskies also lost two games by 6 points or less.  Northern Illinois’ offense has played a group of defenses that only allow 24.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  The Huskies will now face a Central Michigan defense that is giving up 38 points per game on 6.6 yards per play on the road this season.  The Huskies’ offense is taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game.  The wrong team is favored, so we’ll back Northern Illinois on Saturday afternoon.

9* Play NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+).

Mississippi State is 2-3 on the season, but this team is much worse than that record indicates.  The Bulldogs’ two wins have come against a terrible South Carolina team, and an inferior Massachusetts team that is relatively new to FBS football.  Mississippi State was unimpressive in those wins; they beat South Carolina 27-14 and only beat Massachusetts 47-35.  The Bulldogs lost at home to South Alabama and Auburn, and they were dominated at LSU where they trailed 23-6 with less than five minutes to play before scoring two backdoor touchdowns to make the final score look respectable at 23-20.  Mississippi State’s offense is only averaging 25.6 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  They will now face a BYU defense that has given up 25.8 points per game versus offenses that have averaged 29.4 points per game this season. 

BYU comes into this game with just a 3-3 record on the season, but their three losses have come by a combined 7 points.  The Cougars have played a difficult schedule with games against Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, Toledo, and Michigan State.  All six of those teams are better than Mississippi State, so BYU is taking a step-down in class tonight.  BYU has a well-balanced offense that averages over 200 yards per game on the ground and thru the air.  Overall, BYU is averaging 28.2 points per game on 5.8 yards per play versus defenses that only allow 23 points per game on 5.4 yards per play.  Mississippi State’s defense is giving up 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play on the road this season.  We’ll lay the points with BYU in this game on Friday night.

10* Play BYU (-).

Chicago lost 6-5 to San Francisco in 13 innings last night, and we expect another loss by the Cubs on Tuesday night.  Chicago will send John Lackey to the mound who hasn't pitched for 13 days.  My numbers project a poor outing for Lackey against San Francisco’s lineup.  Lackey projects to give up 2.4 earned runs with a mediocre 3.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in this game.  Lackey has been poor away from home all season.  On the road in 13 starts, Lackey is just 4-4 with a terrible 4.37 ERA after giving up 38 earned runs in 78.1 innings of work, compared to a 7-4 record with a 2.62 ERA in his 16 home starts this year.  The Giants enter tonight in solid offensive form, averaging 4.6 runs while batting over .275 in their last eight games, while Chicago is hitting less than .215 in their past eight games.

San Francisco will start Matt Moore who projects to have a solid outing against Chicago’s lineup based on my numbers.  Moore is slated to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in this game.  Moore also projects to have a tremendous 9.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched against the Cubs in this game.  Moore has pitched well for the Giants since being acquired from Tampa Bay in August, especially at home with a 4-2 record and 3.16 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, compared to a 2-3 record and 5.17 ERA and 1.50 WHIP on the road.  We’ll back San Francisco on the run line with Moore on the mound in this game on Tuesday night.

10* Play GIANTS (+1.5 runline).

Buffalo came thru with a Best Bet winner for us last week in their 16-0 win over the Patriots, but we have no hesitation in playing against the Bills in this game on Sunday afternoon.  Buffalo comes in off back-to-back dominating wins over Arizona and New England, and those wins set them up to regress sharply this afternoon.  Buffalo is on the road for a second consecutive week, but this time they had to make a cross-country trip.  Buffalo’s offense is only averaging 21.7 points per game on 5.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 19.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  Points won’t come easy against a Los Angeles defense that only gave up 3 total points to Seattle in their lone home game this season.

Los Angeles got embarrassed 28-0 by San Francisco in their season opener, but they’ve won all three of their games since then.  The Rams will play just their second home game of the season, and they are catching the Bills in a terrible scheduling and situational spot to boot.  Los Angeles’ offense isn’t going to wow anybody, but their opponent today also has a terrible offense.  The Rams win games with their strong defense, and that will be the case once again in this game.  Los Angeles’ defense is only giving up 19 points per game on just 5.3 yards per play.  This game won’t be pretty, but we expect Los Angeles to come out with their fourth straight win on Sunday afternoon.

10* Play RAMS (+).

Atlanta lost their season opener at home to Tampa Bay, but since then they’ve won three consecutive games with two of those games coming on the road.  The Falcons won all three games in high-scoring shootouts, but that’s not necessarily a good thing.  Atlanta dominated their last two games; they beat New Orleans 45-32 and Carolina 48-33.  Neither one of those games was actually close, and that sets Atlanta up to regress this afternoon, especially since they are taking a major step-up in defensive class against Denver.  The Falcons’ offense is averaging 38 points per game on a whopping 7.8 yards per play.  However, they’ve faced four awful defenses that are giving up 30.1 points per game on 6.3 yards per play.  Atlanta will now face a Denver defense that allows just 16 points per game on 4.6 yards per play.  That’s -14.1 points and -1.7 yards per play less than the defenses Atlanta has faced so far this season.

Denver is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the season.  The Broncos have dominated three of their four opponents while winning by a combined score of 111-64.  Denver’s offense is averaging 27.7 points per game on 5.7 yards per play this season.  We expect a strong offensive performance in this game since the Broncos will be facing an Atlanta defense that is giving up 31 points per game on 6.2 yards per play versus offenses that only average 25.5 points per game on 5.7 yards per play.  Denver will start Paxton Lynch at quarterback after Trevor Siemian got hurt last week.  But that’s of little concern since we expect the Broncos’ stout defense to control this game from start to finish.  Lynch played the majority of the game last week at Tampa Bay and the rookie played well, averaging 7.1 yards per pass with a 1/0 TD/INT ratio and a 94.1 QB rating.  We’ll lay the points with Denver on Sunday afternoon.

9* Play BRONCOS (-).

Syracuse is 2-3 SU on the season, but in their defense, they have played a tough schedule.  The Orange faced three strong teams in Louisville, South Florida, and Notre Dame.  Syracuse lost all three of those games by 17 points; they were non-competitive in those defeats.  So even though it’s true they’ve played a brutal schedule, the blowout results show that Syracuse just isn’t a good team.  The Orange offense is averaging 29 points per game on 5.7 yards per play, but they’ve played defenses that allow an average of 29.1 points per game on 5.8 yards per play.  Syracuse will now face a Wake Forest defense that allows just 19.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.  That’s -9.3 points per game and -0.3 yards per play less than the defenses Syracuse has faced.

Wake Forest comes into this game with a 4-1 SU record on the season despite playing three of their five games on the road.  The Demon Deacons returned 16 players from last year’s team, and in their third year under head coach Dave Clawson, the hot start is not a surprise.  Wake Forest plays ball control offense; they average 42.6 rushes per game while running for 173.8 yards per game.  The Demon Deacons’ ability to run the ball gives them a nice matchup edge in this game, especially since the Orange defense gives up 205 yards per game on 5.4 yards per rush, and weather conditions might be wet.  Overall, the Syracuse defense allows 37.6 points per game on a whopping 6.9 yards per play.  We’ll lay the points with Wake Forest in this game on Saturday night.

9* Play WAKE FOREST (-).