8* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Thunder/76ers OVER 232.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 232.5 in Thursday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Thunder. Philly is an offensive juggernaut and just got back two of their top scorers in Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. In Embiid's first game back after missing a few games, they put up 147 points on 61% shooting in Tuesday's blowout win at home over the Pistons. 76ers have scored 120 or more in 4 of their last 5 games, all 5 of which have gone over the total. OVER is 9-1 in Philly's last 10 games overall. 

OKC has the goods to at least try to keep this game close and push this thing past the total. Thunder come in scoring 124.6 ppg over their last 5. All 5 going OVER the total. They are also giving up 118.3 ppg on the road this season. I just don't feel the books have adjusted the number enough for this one. Give me the OVER 232.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Iowa Hawkeyes -5.5

I'll gladly take my chances with Iowa as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Wolverines on Thursday. After losing 3 straight and falling to 0-3 in Big Ten play, the Hawkeyes have won two straight. First they knocked off Indiana at home before going on the road and securing an impressive 76-65 road win over Rutgers. 

Iowa is a very tough team to beat on their home floor. They are 7-2 at home this season with both losses coming during a stretch when their best player, Kris Murray, was sidelined with an injury. I don't see Michigan being able to keep pace offensively on the road against this Iowa team with Murray in the lineup. Michigan is coming off a 53-59 road loss to in-state rival Michigan State and were lucky to only lose by 6. They trailed by 14 with just over 8 minutes to play and had just 28 points over the first 30+ minutes of that game. Give me the Hawkeyes -5.5! 

10* NCAAB Big Ten TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Rutgers/Northwestern UNDER 126.5

I love the UNDER 126.5 in Wednesday's Big Ten matchup between Rutgers and Northwestern. These aren't just two of the best defensive teams in the Big Ten, they are two of the best in the country. With two sub-par offenses on the court and two teams that prefer a slower pace, it will be a struggle for either team to get to 60 points. 

Northwestern is No. 10 in the country in defensive efficiency and 22nd in Effective FG%. Rutgers is No. 242 in effective FG% offense. Scarlet Knights are 282nd in 3P% and are facing a Northwestern defense that is No. 2 in 2P% defense. 

Rutgers is No. 3 in defensive efficiency and No. 9 in effective FG% defense. They are No. 7 in 3P% defense and No. 27 in 2P% defense. Northwestern is No. 337 in effective offensive FG%, No. 270 in 3P% and No. 341 in 2P%. 

Add in Rutgers being No. 246 in adjusted tempo and Northwestern being No. 232, I just don't know where the points are going to come from to get this close to this total. Give me the UNDER 126.5! 

9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Pelicans +9.5

I'll take my chances with the Pelicans as a 9.5-point road dog against the Celtics. I just think Boston is getting way too much respect in this spot. At the same time, I think New Orleans is being way undervalued right now due to the fact that both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are out with injuries. People don't realize just how deep and talented this Pelicans team is. 

Boston is also playing shorthanded without one of their most important pieces in Marcus Smart. They also could be missing big man Robert Williams in this one. The books have really started to inflate the number on this team and as a result they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. 

I know it's not as big a game with Durant now sidelined, but I got to think the Celtics will have a hard time not looking ahead to tomorrow's game in Brooklyn. Boston is just 1.5-games up on the Nets for the No. 1 seed in the East and Kyrie isn't exactly a fan favorite with this organization. I just think it all adds up to New Orleans keeping this within the number. Give me the Pelicans +9.5! 

8* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Indiana Pacers +4.5

I'll gladly take my chances with the Pacers as a 4.5-point road dog against the Knicks. I'm going to keep riding this Indiana team until they show signs of slowing down. Pacers come into this game having won 8 of their last 10 and are 8-1-1 ATS during this stretch. Tyrese Haliburton seems to have taken a big step forward and Indiana hit big on rookie shooting guard Benedict Mathurin. Fellow rookie, Andrew Nembhard has also played really well. This is a much more talented and deep team than people realize. 

Knicks are a team I just don't have a ton of faith in. They aren't great and they aren't bad, but often will be overpriced when they are doing well because of the market they play in. New York comes in having won 4 of their last 5 and in the lone loss they lost by just 4 to the Bucks. Thing is, two of those wins were against the Rockets and Spurs. Another was against a depleted Suns team at home. The one decent win was at Toronto and the Raptors are 4-11 SU over their last 15 games. Give me the Pacers +4.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Magic/Blazers OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 229.5 in Tuesday's matchup between the Magic and Blazers. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing 230 points. Orlando will be playing this game on no rest after last night's 111-136 loss at Sacramento. OVER is 5-2 in the second leg of back-to-back games with Orlando this season. Magic are giving up 120 ppg in this spot. OVER is 4-1 in Portland's last 5 home games, with the lone exception being a game against the Hornets that went UNDER despite the two teams combining for 237 points. Blazers have put up 127.2 ppg during this 5-game home stretch. 

You got to go into this game expecting Portland to at the very least put up 120 points, which means we would need just 110 from Orlando to cash this ticket. A mark the Magic have hit in 13 of their last 16 games. Blazers allow 112.1 ppg on the season. I just think with how easy it's going to be on offense, the effort isn't going to be all that great on defense. As long as Orlando doesn't go ice cold in this game, we cash this easy. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Oklahoma State Cowboys +5.5

I'll take the 5.5 points with Oklahoma State as they head to Manhattan Tuesday night to face off against Kansas State. I just think this is the perfect time to sell-high on the Wildcats. K-State comes into this game 14-1 and on a 8-game winning streak. 

I just have to wonder how much gas they have left in the tank. Wildcats opened up Big Ten play on New Year's Eve with a 82-76 OT win at home against West Virginia. Two days later they played that crazy shootout in a 116-103 win at Texas. This past Saturday they played another OT game at home against Baylor, sneaking out a 97-95 win. 

Oklahoma State is 9-6 but have played the 24th toughest schedule to date. They are just 1-2 in Big 12 play with a 2-point loss at Kansas and a 10-point loss at home to Texas. Note that they were tied 44-44 with under 7 minutes to play against the Longhorns and were outscored from their on 12-2. The only other loss by more than 5-points was a true road game against a very good UConn team. Simply too much value here to pass up. Give me Oklahoma State +5.5! 

9* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Los Angeles Clippers -3.5

I'll take my chances with the Clippers as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Hawks. I just think this is the perfect time to buy-low on Los Angeles. Clippers come into this game having lost 5 straight. They had that awful showing in Thursday's 91-122 loss to the Nuggets and then neither Paul George or Kawhi played in Friday's 115-128 loss at Minnesota. 

Kawhi is expected back for this game and I believe George will play, despite showing up as questionable in the injury report. I just feel that's more of them just making up an injury to get the league off their back for him not playing in the second of a back-to-back. 

So this is really the Clippers first time to respond to their poor effort in the loss to the Nuggets. I just think when this team has all their pieces, they are one of the best teams in the Western Conference. 

It's also not like the Hawks come into this matchup playing great basketball. Atlanta has lost 5 of their last 6 and are in the much worse scheduling spot, playing their 4th straight game on the road in a week. We just saw them way overvalued in their last game, listed as a 3-point favorite and losing 114-130 to the Lakers. Hawks are just 5-11 ATS over their last 16 games. Give me the Clippers -3.5

8* NBA Situational ATS MASSACRE: Indiana Pacers -5

I don't understand the line move here. This line opened at Indiana -7 and has dropped down to 5? They could be without stud rookie Bennedict Mathurin, who has been a force for them off the bench and is third on the team in scoring at 17.4 ppg. 

I just don't feel that his absence will have a big impact on their game against the Hornets. Scoring is not going to be an issue against this Charlotte team. Hornets have allowed 119 or more points in 14 of their last 16 games. Indiana had scored 122 or more in 5 straight before scoring just 108 against the Blazers, where they couldn't buy a basket from deep. 

This is also a very deep Pacers team, who has a number of guys that can pick up the scoring slack if needed. I think you also got to factor in how well point guard Tyrese Haliburton is playing of late. Guy is quietly averaging 20.4 ppg and 10.2 apg, shooting 40.4% from 3 (averaging 3 made 3's a game) and is T-3rd in the league with 1.7 steals/game. Give me the Hornets -5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total DESTROYER: 76ers/Pistons OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances on the OVER 229.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the 76ers and Pistons. Philly cashed in plenty of OVER's with Embiid on the floor, but I feel they are an even stronger OVER team without him. Embiid is an unstoppable force on the offensive end, but he's also a beast inside defensively.

I believe the 76ers lose more on defense than they do on offense when he's out. Their offense also uses less clock not having to feed the ball inside to him and let him play 1-on-1. OVER has hit in 7 of their last 8 games. In the last two without Embiid they combined for 255 with the Pacers and 238 with the Bulls.

Detroit's not a team I think they are going to turn it up defensively and that defenses figures to struggle even more without Embiid on the road. Pistons are also not a good defensive team. Detroit has allowed 119 or more in 6 of their last 8. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Rutgers Scarlet Knights -5.5

I'll gladly take my chances with Rutgers laying just 5.5 at home against Iowa. The Hawkeyes aren't a bad team by any means, but they are definitely down from the caliber a team they have put on the floor the past few seasons.

I played on them at home against Indiana in their last game. I just don't trust them on the road, especially without Patrick McCaffrey. They need a guy like that's scoring against this Rutgers defense, especially away from home. Scarlet Knights are No. 3 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 5 in opponents effective FG%. 

Rutgers offense isn't great, but this is an Iowa defense that isn't very good and one that struggles to defend down low. Hawkeyes are 210th in the country in defending 2-pt attempts. I just don't think Iowa's offense will be good enough for them to keep this close. Give me Rutgers -5.5! 

8* NBA Oddsmakers PUBLIC TRAP PLAY OF THE DAY: Utah Jazz -1.5

This line stinks and it keeps getting worse. Chicago opened as a 1-point favorite and now it's Utah that's favored. It makes no sense. Bulls are off a 126-112 win at 76ers last night, improving to 7-3 in their last 10 games. Utah had lost 5 straight before winning at Houston on Wednesday. Beating a bad Rockets team in a game they were favored by 6.5 is not exactly something that's going to make the public want to bet the Jazz at basically a pick'em on the road. They are going to line up to play Chicago. 

Clearly someone knows something or has a pretty good insight into this game for Utah to be favored. It's just so far off what you would think it should be, you have to take the other side. 

This does feel like a bit of a flat spot for Chicago, playing on no rest after a gauntlet 4-game stretch in 7 days, where they played a home-and-home vs the Cavs, hosted the Nets and finished up with last night's game in Philly. 

Utah's best player is Lauri Markkanen. The former Bull, who has to feel a bit like the team gave up on him to early. Certainly looks that way. He's going to be motivated to play well in this one and teams typically follow the lead of their best player. Give me the Jazz -1.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Wizards/Thunder OVER 231.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Friday's NBA matchup between the Wizards and Thunder. I don't see these two teams having any trouble eclipsing this mark. OKC is averaging 118.3 ppg at home this season and come in averaging 120.8 ppg over their last 5. The average combined score in their home games is 233.9. 

Thunder are allowing 118.6 ppg in their last 5 and will be facing a Wizards offense that has put in an average of 118.6 ppg in their last 5. OVER is 4-2 in OKC's last 6 games with one of those UNDERS being in a game where they combined for 234 points (total was 238.5). In their last 6 games, 5 have seen a combined score of 234 or more. 

OVER is 30-14 in the Wizards last 44 non-conference games and 23-10 in their last 33 after playing 2 straight on the road. OVER is 26-12 in the Thunder's last 38 at home in non-conference games. Give me the OVER 231.5

9* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Blazers/Pacers OVER 236

I'll take my chances with the OVER 236 in Friday's matchup between the Blazers and Pacers. I really like these teams to at the very least get into the 240s. Just look at how high-scoring Indiana's games have been of late. In the Pacers last 5 games, they are scoring 128.6 ppg and giving up 122.6 ppg for an average combined score of 251.2 ppg. 

As you might have guessed, Indiana likes to push the pace and should be able to dictate the tempo at home in this one. In their last 4 games they have faced 3 of the slower teams in terms of pace in the Cavs, Clippers and 76ers. They combined for 261 with Cleveland, 261 against LA and 255 with Philly. 

OVER is 16-4 in the Pacers last 20 home games with a total of 230 or more and 13-4 in their last 17 at home vs a marginal winning team (WP between 51% to 60%). OVER is also 24-11 in Portland's last 35 non-conference road games. Give me the OVER 236! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls +4.5

I'll take my chances with Chicago catching 4.5 on the road against a 76ers team that will be without one of the best players in the game in Joel Embiid. Bulls have been playing some of their best basketball of the season here of late. Chicago is 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS over their last 9 games. Two of those losses were by 1-point at home to the Cavs and by 11 in OT at Cleveland. They just beat a red-hot Nets team 121-112 as  5-point home dog last time out. 

76ers were able to win without Embiid on Wednesday, knocking off the Pacers 129-126, but needed OT to secure the victory and did not cover. Philly has enough scorers to put up points without Embiid, but they really miss him on the defensive side of the ball. Chicago isn't a great 3-point shooting team, but are connecting on 48.7% of their attempts for the season and have shot 48% or better from the field in 9 of their last 10 games. Only exception was against a Bucks defense that is one of the best in the NBA on the defensive side of the ball. 

Harden, Maxey, Harris and Melton all played 37 or more minutes in that OT win against the Pacers and only 7 guys had more than 20 minutes. I just think their lack of depth and not having Embiid puts them in a tough spot here. Give me the Bulls +4.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Clippers/Nuggets OVER 227.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 227.5 in Thursday's showdown between the Clippers and Nuggets. LA could be without Paul George for this game, which is a big loss for the Clippers offense. However, they should be just fine offensively against a leaky Denver defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. 

These two teams combined for 110 in their previous meeting this season, but LA didn't have George or Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi has been playing consistently for a good stretch now and has put in 20+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. John Wall tormented Denver's defense for 23 points on 8 of 10 shooting in that first meeting. Leonard and Wall should provide a solid 1-2 punch in this one. 

As for the Clippers defense, it's certainly not as good without George on the floor. LA is a team that I think struggles to defend the big men inside and Denver has the best in the business down low in Jokic. Nuggets offense as a whole ranks 2nd in the NBA behind only the Celtics in offensive efficiency. Give me the OVER 227.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Iowa Hawkeyes -1

I'll take my chances with Iowa as a mere 1-point home favorite against the Hoosiers. Some might think the Hawkeyes shouldn't be favored in this game. Iowa has lost their last 3 and starter Patrick McCaffery is taking a personal leave of absence. I like this team to respond in a big way in this game. 

Indiana has injury concerns of their own. Trayce-Jackson Davis has missed the last two games and is listed as questionable. They are also without 3rd leading scorer Xavier Johnson (9.9 ppg), who also leads the teams in assists (4.9 apg). 

We saw the Hawkeyes annihilate a very good Iowa State team at home without their best player in Kris Murray. McCaffery was a solid contributor, but not a loss they can't overcome. They still got their 3 best scorers on the floor in Murray, Filip Rebraca and Tony Perkins. This team as a whole just shoots the ball better at home. They are shooting 44.7% from the field and 31.8% from the 3-point line on the season. Those spike to 48.9% and 36.2% at home. Give me Iowa -1! 

8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Missouri Tigers +7.5

I'll take my chances with Missouri as a 7.5-point road dog against Arkansas. The Tigers just continue to get disrespected by the books. Missouri is 12-1 and come into this game off 3 straight Top 50 wins, beating UCF, Illinois and most recently Kentucky. They annihilated the Fighting Illini 93-71 on a neutral floor and crushed Kentucky 89-75 at home. I get playing on the road is tough, but this line is suggesting that Arkansas is the far superior team. 

I'm just not buying it. Yes the Razorbacks are 11-2 and ranked No. 13 in the country, but their only two Top 50 wins are against San Diego State (in OT) and Oklahoma. I not only think the Tigers cover here, but I give them a legit shot to win this game outright. Give me Missouri +7.5! 

10* NBA - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH: Spurs/Knicks OVER 226.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 226.5 in Wednesday's game between the Spurs and Knicks. There's not much you really need to look at here besides how recent San Antonio games have gone. The OVER has cashed in 8 straight and 11 of the last 12 games the Spurs have played. The only game that didn't was against the Heat, who play at one of the slowest paces in the league. 

San Antonio has allowed at least 115 points in 7 straight games, 6 times giving up 122 or more. They are scoring 115.5 ppg over their last 13. This team is built for shootouts and I just don't think this total should be less than 230. 

Knicks are extremely well rested. Their only game so far in January was Monday's 102-83 win at home over the Suns, where they coasted after getting a big lead early. I don't see them having any problem scoring 120+ points in this one. Spurs at the very least should give us around 110. That's more than enough to cash this ticket. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

8* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Charlotte Hornets +8

I'll take my chances with the Hornets catching 8-points at home against the Grizzlies. It's been a dreadful start to the 2022-23 season for Charlotte, who comes into this game at just 10-28 and a lousy 3-13 over their last 16 games. 

The big reason I'm taking a shot on the Hornets, is the biggest reason their record is what it is, is the laundry list of injuries this team has had to deal with. Their best player, LaMelo Ball, has only played 14 games Terry Rozier has missed double-digit games and Dennis Smith Jr just returned to play in his 16th game of the season. 

Even with Gordon Hayward (not playing well anyway) not likely to play tonight, I think this is as healthy as Charlotte has been all season. I think they show up with a lot of fight here against Memphis. Grizzlies have been playing well, but this is just too many for them to be laying on the road. Give me the Hornets +8! 

9* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5

I'll take my chances with the Thunder as a 2.5-point road dog against the Magic on Wednesday. I just don't think Orlando has any business being favored in this game. Orlando, who is already without the likes of Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac, will not have Franz Wagner, Mortiz Wagner or Bol Bol for this game. 

So while OKC is playing in the second of a back-to-back on the road, they should have more than enough here to get the win against a depleted Magic side. Orlando has lost 3 straight coming in, including a 100-119 loss at home to the Wizards in their last game. They are scoring just 104 ppg and giving up 123  ppg during this losing streak. OKC just put up 150 last night on Boston. Give me the Thunder +2.5! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Oklahoma Sooners -3

I'll take my chances with Oklahoma as a slim 3-point home favorite against Iowa State on Wednesday. We played on and won with the Cyclones in Saturday's 77-62 win over Baylor as a 2-point home dog. ISU is just one of those teams that I think is a great team to back at home and fade on the road. A lot of teams fit this bills in the Big 12 and Big 10. The only true road game the Cyclones have played this season was at in-state rival Iowa and they lost that game 56-75 with the Hawkeyes not having their best player in Kris Murray. 

Now they have to go on the road against a good and hungry Oklahoma team that is coming off a 1-point loss at home to highly ranked Texas. This is a team that has been playing well. They are 9-3 over their last 12 games with the other two losses coming by 4-points at Villanova and by 10 on a neutral court against a very good Arkansas team. Give me the Sooners -3! 

9* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Utah Jazz -2.5

I'll take my chances with the Jazz as a 2.5-point home favorite against the Kings. Utah comes in having lost 4 straight, but it's not like they haven't been competitive during the losing streak. All 4 losses have come by 5 points or less. One of those being a 125-126 loss at Sacramento last Friday. 

Not only will the Jazz be motivated here to get back in the win column, but they are going to want revenge on the Kings. I think they get it, as this is not an ideal spot for Sacramento. Kings will be playing their 5th game in 8 days and second straight on the road in one of the more tougher places to play, especially if you come in any kind of bad rest spot. Making matters worse for Sacramento, is they face a rested Utah team that is playing on a full two days of rest. Give me the Jazz -2.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money Vegas Insider: Ole Miss Rebels +12.5

I'll take my chances with Ole Miss as a 12.5-point road dog against No. 7 Alabama. I just think this is a few too many points for the Crimson Tide to be laying in this spot. Crimson Tide are off a double-digit road win against Mississippi State to open up SEC play, improving to 11-2. I think this team might be feeling themselves a little too much and will have a hard time not looking ahead to Saturday's huge showdown against Kentucky. 

It makes it that much easier to not give the Rebels enough respect when they come in having lost their last two and are just 2-5 in their last 7 games. They do have a bad loss at home to North Alabama during this stretch, but the other 4 losses are against teams ranked 32nd or better at KenPom and all of those losses came by 11 or fewer points. 

For as good as Alabama has been, their only win in their last 9 games by more than 13 points was a 20-point win at home over Jackson State. They 13-point win was against South Dakota State. I expect the Crimson Tide to win this game, I just think they would need to play their very best to win here by more than the number. Give me Ole Miss +12.5! 

9* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Indiana Pacers -1

I'll take my chances with the Pacers as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Raptors on Monday. Indiana has won 5 of their last 6 and are 7-2 ATS over their last 9 games. Indiana is a perfect 3-0 on their 4-game homestand, winning all 3 as a dog. They have host 51% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games, scoring at least 129 points in each win. 

I just think this team is playing too well to basically a pick'em against a Raptors team that is just 3-8 SU over their last 11 games and just 5-12 SU on the road this season. Toronto is rested, but are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games when playing 4 or fewer games in a 10-day stretch. Pacers are 8-1 ATS last 9 at home when they come in having covered 4/5 of their last 6. Give me the Pacers -1! 

9* NCAAB Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Oklahoma State Cowboys -2.5

I'll take my chances with Oklahoma State laying 2.5-points at home against West Virginia on Monday. Don't be fooled by the records or rankings. Anytime you have an unranked team favored over a ranked team, I tend to look that way. 

The Cowboys may be just 8-5 on the season, but 4 of the 5 losses have come by 5 or fewer points, including a mere 2-point loss at Kansas on Saturday. The only other loss was by 10 in a true road game against a very good UConn team. 

West Virginia is 10-3, but all 10 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 45. They lost by 12-points on a neutral site to Purdue and by 10 on the road at Xavier. They are also coming off a OT loss at K-State on Saturday. Having just 1-day of rest, off an OT game and both games being on the road in Big 12 play is a lot to ask the Mountaineers to overcome in this spot. Give me Oklahoma State -2.5! 

8* NBA Underdog PLAY OF THE DAY: Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

I'll take my chances with the Thunder catching 4.5-points at home against the 76ers on Saturday. Tough spot here for Philadelphia, who is in quite the letdown spot after playing a big game last night at New Orleans. It's also the 76ers 4th and final game of a 4-game road trip. 

I just think playing on no rest with all that travel has them set to struggle to perform up to expectations. I also wouldn't be shocked at all if Philadelphia decided to sit one of their two stars in the second of a back-to-back. 

OKC on the other hand is a young team that has been way better than expected and it shows in their ATS record. Thunder are 20-14 ATS on the season and come in having covered 6 of their last 9 games. I'll take the points, but I like OKC to win this outright. Give me the Thunder +4.5! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Villanova Wildcats -2.5

I'll take my chances with Villanova as a small 2.5-point home favorite against Marquette on Saturday. This to me is just too good a price to pass up on the Wildcats at home, especially with Villanova figuring to be extra motivated coming off a loss at UConn. 

Wildcats are just 7-6 overall, but have played one of the tougher schedules in the country, as 4 of their 6 losses are to teams ranked inside the Top 50. They also have a loss on a neutral floor to Oregon and a loss at Temple early in the year. All 6 losses have also come by 8-points or fewer with 3 by 4 or less. 

Marquette is a good team that has been impressive in their 10-4 start with a bunch of quality losses of their own, but are just 1-2 in true road games with the only win coming against a struggling Notre Dame team that also has home losses to Miami and Syracuse. Just not enough respect being given to the Wildcats in this one. Give me Villanova -2.5! 

8* NCAAB - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Iowa State Cyclones +2

I will gladly take the Cyclones as a 2-point home dog against Baylor on Saturday. Iowa State is off to an impressive 9-2 start, with their only two losses coming against UConn on a neutral floor and a true road game against in-state rival Iowa, where the Hawkeyes couldn't miss from deep (12 of 23, 52.2%). 

Cyclones are a perfect 7-0 at home this season and have one of the best homecourt advantages in the country. They are also extremely well rested for this game, having not played since Dec. 18th. Baylor on the other hand just played a game on Wednesday and while the Bears are off to a strong 10-2 start, they don't have the same dominant feel to them as the last couple of years.

Baylor's only true road game was at Marquette back on Nov. 29th and the Bears were annihilated by the Golden Eagles 96-70. This one figures to be a little closer, but no way should ISU be a dog in this matchup. Give me Iowa State +2! 

9* NBA Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER: Sacramento Kings -3

I'll gladly take my chances with the Kings as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Jazz on Friday. Utah surprised a lot of teams early on with their effort and it resulted in them greatly exceeding expectations. Most thought this team was one of the front-runners to finish with the worst record in the league. While they clearly aren't that team, I think that early success has them overvalued as teams have started to treat them with a little more respect. Utah is just 5-7 ATS in their last 12 games.

The defense continues to be a problem and that's what I believe will ultimately do them in against a very good Kings offense. Kings are scoring 118.0 ppg on the season and that number jumps to 122.1 ppg in home games. 

I also think Sacramento is coming into this game with a ton of momentum after turning a 19-point 3rd quarter deficit into a 127-126 win at home over the Nuggets on Wednesday. This is also a tough spot for Utah, as they will be playing their 3rd straight on the road. It's also the Jazz's 6th road game in their last 7 overall. Give me the Kings -3! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Clemson Tigers -1.5

I'm backing Clemson as a 1.5-point home favorite against NC State in Friday's ACC action on the college hardwood. The Tigers are off to a strong 10-3 start and have 6 of their last 7 coming into this matchup. Two of their 3 losses were by just a few points, as they lost 58-60 in a true road game against South Carolina and by 3-points on a neutral site against Iowa. I just feel the Tigers are being a bit short-changed here at home, where they are a perfect 7-0 this season. 

NC State is also off to a good start, as they bring an 11-3 record into this game. However, the Wolfpack have only played one true road game to this point, which has certainly aided their strong start. NC State's lone true road game was at Miami and they lost that game 73-80 after jumping out to a 33-17 lead in the first 13 minutes of the game. Wolfpack were outscored 63-40 over the final 27 minutes and change of that game. If they struggle out of the gate in this one, this could get ugly in a hurry. Give me Clemson -1.5! 

9* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Boston Celtics -5.5

I'm going to lay the 5.5 with the Celtics at home against the Clippers on Tuesday. Both teams come into this game playing well. LA has won and covered 4 of their last 5, while Boston has won and covered each of their last 3. 

What I really like is the revenge that Boston will be playing with in this game. These two teams met not that long ago in LA (Dec. 12). A game the Celtics lost 93-113. The key thing to note is that it was an awful spot for Boston. They were coming off a game at Golden State two days earlier, which was their first shot at the Warriors since losing to them in the Finals last year. They were also playing their 5th straight game on the road. Celtics had gone from Brooklyn to Toronto to Phoenix to Golden State in the 8 days leading up to that game. 

This time the roles are reversed. Celtics have done zero traveling since arriving home from LA, as this will be their 7th straight home game. The Clippers on the other hand will be playing their 5th straight on the road. It will also be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the Celtics -5.5! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Nebraska Cornhuskers +4.5

I'm taking Nebraska as a 4.5-point home dog against the Hawkeyes. I don't think getting back Khris Murray will be enough for Iowa to go on the road and beat the Cornhuskers by 5 or more. I think it will be a struggle for the Hawkeyes to just win the game. Iowa is 1-0 in true road games, beating Seton Hall 83-67 back in November. At the time that win was impressive, but it's looking less and less of a quality win with the Pirates now sitting at 7-7, having lost 6 of their last 9. 

Nebraska comes in having lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 7-6 on the season, but have played one of the toughest schedules in the country. They have lost in true road games against St. John's and Indiana. Neutral site games against Oklahoma, Memphis and Kansas State. The only other loss is a 62-65 OT setback at home against Purdue, who many feel is the best team in the Big Ten. 

I just think both of these teams are going to be teams you look to back on their home floor and fade on the road in Big Ten play, especially in games with a smaller line like we have here. Give me Nebraska +4.5! 

9* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Utah Jazz -3

I'll take my chance with Utah as a slim 3-point road favorite against the Warriors. Golden State has looked much better since return home from a dreadful 6-game road trip, where they went just 1-5. The Warriors upset Memphis 123-109 as a 7.5-point home dog on Christmas Day and then held on for a 110-105 win and cover at home against the Hornets last night. 

Why fade them here? Couple reasons. One is rest. Golden State will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and will be doing so against a rested Jazz team that will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 6 days. The other is the likely absence of Klay Thompson, who is listed as doubtful due to injury management. With Thompson, Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins all sidelined, there's not much for scoring options outside of Jordan Poole. 

I just think the lack of offense is going to do in the Warriors in this one. Utah is 4th in the NBA in scoring at 117.2 ppg and should be able to do as they please against a tired Warriors team. Give me the Jazz -3! 

9* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Kentucky Wildcats -3

I'll take my chances with Kentucky laying 3 on the road against Missouri. I just feel we are getting some good value here with the Wildcats. Missouri is off to an impressive 11-1 start and last time they took the floor they embarrassed Illinois 93-71 as a 6.5-point dog. Last time we saw Kentucky in a big game was a neutral site matchup against UCLA and they did not look great in a 53-63 loss. 

The one thing to note about Missouri and their 11-1 record, is they rank a mere 318th in strength of schedule. The Tigers only other game vs a team ranked inside the Top 50 resulted in a 67-95 loss at home to Kansas. 

I also really think Kentucky is going to come in motivated and sharp for this game. Wildcats are just 1-3 in games away from home and know they have to get better away from Lexington heading into SEC play. Kentucky also hasn't played in a week and a week of practice can do wonders for a young team like the Wildcats. Give me Kentucky -3! 

9* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Dallas Mavericks -4.5

I'll take my chances with the Mavs as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Knicks on Tuesday. New York has lost three in a row since rolling off 8 straight wins and now figure to be without arguably their most important piece to the puzzle in point guard Jalen Brunson, who left with a hip injury and did return in Sunday's Christmas Day loss at home to the 76ers. Brunson is listed as questionable, but with just 1-day off and the Knicks only two other games over the next week being favorable road matchups against the Spurs and Rockets, I have a hard time seeing him play in this game. Without Brunson to run the offense, I think it could be tough sledding for the Knicks against a good Mavs team that is playing well, having won their last 3 games. Give me Dallas -4.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Orlando Magic -3

I'll take my chances with the Magic as a 3-point home favorite against the Lakers. It's been all downhill for LA since they lost Anthony Davis to a foot injury. Lakers come in having lost 4 straight and have played absolutely zero defense during the losing streak. LA is giving up 130.5 ppg in this stretch. I don't see it getting any better against the Magic, who have been one of the hottest teams in the league in the month of December. Orlando is 8-1 over their last 9 games and have covered 10 straight. The only loss being a mere 1-point defeat on the road against the Hawks. If the Lakers weren't such a public team, this line would be closer to 7. Simply put, there's too much value with Orlando at this price. Give me the Magic -3! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Boston Celtics -4.5

I'll take my chances with the Celtics as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Bucks on Christmas Day. I just think that when they have played their best, Boston has looked like the best team in the NBA and I expect the best they have to offer in this game against the Bucks. Boston snapped a 3-game skid with a 121-109 win and cover at home against the Timberwolves on Friday. It was the best they have looked in 2 weeks and I like them to build on that. 

As for the Bucks, they come in off back-to-back losses, falling 106-114 at Cleveland last Wednesday and then 100-118 at Brooklyn on Friday. This will be Milwaukee's 4th straight game on the road in what has really been a brutal stretch in their schedule. The Bucks are also just not a great road team this year. Milwaukee is 14-3 at home compared to just 8-7 on the road. The offense simply hasn't been good enough away from home, as they are scoring just 106.0 ppg on 43.5% shooting on the road. 

That's a problem against this Celtics team that was on a historic offensive pace before their recent swoon. Boston also just got one of the games best interior defenders back in Robert Williams. Celtics have the big guys inside to make it tough on Giannis and without him dominating the game, I don't know where the offense is going to come from for the Bucks. Give me the Celtics -4.5! 

9* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Denver Nuggets -4.5

I'll take my chances with the Nuggets as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Blazers. Denver comes into this game having won 5 of their last 6 and are 10-3 SU at home this season. Portland is going in the opposite direction, as the Blazers have dropped 3 of their last 4, including back-to-back upset losses on the road against OKC last two times out. 

The big key to his handicap is the big rest advantage for the Nuggets. Denver is playing their third straight game at home and had very little travel of late, playing just 1 road game since Dec. 8th. Nuggets had a full 2 days off leading up to this game. Portland on the other hand is finishing up a 6-game road trip and will be playing their 5th road game in a span of 8 days. Give me the Nuggets -4.5! 

8* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: New York Knicks -5

I'll take my chances with the Knicks laying 5-points at home against the Bulls Friday night. New York had their 8-game winning streak snapped in a 106-113 loss at home to the Raptors on Wednesday. Couple things played into that loss. One the Knicks were sloppy with the ball in the second of a back-to-back. New York had 16 turnovers and generated a season-low 4 on the defensive side of the ball. Toronto also got a 52-point effort out of Pascal Siakam. 

I feel really good about the Knicks getting back to their winning ways against a Bulls team that I just don't have a lot of trust in. Chicago has won their last two, but will be playing their 4th straight on the road and 3rd road game in 4 nights.

Bulls beat the Hawks 110-108 on a last second shot last time out, which adds even more value to this play on New York. Teams off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent off a road win by 3 or less points are 37-14 (72.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Knicks -5! 

8* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Knicks -1.5

I'll take my chances with the Knicks as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Raptors. The only real negative for New York is they are playing on rest after last night's blowout win over the Warriors on TNT. That's now 8 straight wins and covers for the Knicks. This team is rolling right now. 

Toronto is going in the opposite direction. The Raptors have lost 6 in a row, going just 1-5 ATS in those games. They are far from in a favorable scheduling spot, as this will be their 3rd game in a different city over the last 4 days. Toronto is also a mere 3-12 SU in road games this season. Give me the Knicks -1.5! 

9* NBA Blockbuster ATS ANNIHILATOR: Cleveland Cavaliers -2

I'll take my chances with the Cavs laying just 2-points at home against the Bucks. Cleveland is 15-2 at home this season. They come in having won 4 straight and playing their 4th straight game at home (no travel). Milwaukee has won their last two and just had that impressive 128-119 win at New Orleans last time out, but are just 5-6-2 ATS on the road this year. 

This is a measuring stick game for the Cavs, as they are trying to reach the level Milwaukee has established. They certainly haven't forgot about how the first meeting between these two teams went. Cleveland had as much as a 16-point lead in a 102-117 loss at Milwaukee. They let the Bucks go on a 23-2 run to start the 3rd quarter, which they got outscored 35-10. They gave up 65 points in the 2nd half after holding them to 52 in the 1st half. 

Cavs are a great defensive team and one that has the athletic big guys inside that at least give them a chance at defending Antetokounmpo. Give me Cleveland -2! 

9* NCAAB Over/Under TOTAL NO-BRAINER: Villanova/St. John's UNDER 146.5

I will take my chances with the UNDER 146.5. I just think the total here is a bit too high with the game being at Villanova and how slow paced the Wildcats prefer to play. Villanova is 349th out of 363 college DI teams in adjusted tempo. They are 316th in average possession length and 358th in opponents avg poss length (teams don't get quick shots on them).

They are just 6-5 overall, but have lost by just 2 to Michigan State and by 2 in OT to ISU. They have a win at home over a good Oklahoma team. They come in having won 4 straight. This team is going to be ready to go for their Big East Opener. 

St. Johns averages 80 ppg and 10th in tempo and 2nd in avg poss. length. I just don't think Villanova is going to let them play at their pace on their floor. The Red Storm's offensive numbers are also inflated due to them playing the 337th toughest schedule to this point. Give me the UNDER 146.5! 

8* NCAAB ATS ANNIHILATOR: Florida -3

I'll take my chances with Florida as a 3-point favorite against Oklahoma. The game will be played on a neutral court (Spectrum Center) in Charlotte. This is one of those "You have to bet no matter what" the numbers say. KenPom would have Oklahoma a 1-point favorite in this game, yet they are getting 3. These lines aren't typically too far off from KenPoms projections. That tells me the books don't agree with the numbers on this one. They are inviting you to bet the Sooners. These are just the kind of plays you don't want to be on the public side and instead should be betting the other side. Give me the Gators -3! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: New York Knicks -4.5

I'll take my chances with the Knicks as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Warriors. New York is one of the hottest teams in the NBA and are easily playing their best basketball of the season. Knicks come into this game having gone a perfect 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS over their last 7 games. A big reason for their strong play, is the improved play on the defensive side of the ball. New York is allowing just 98.2 ppg during their 7-game win streak and only once in this stretch have they allowed more than 106 points. 

The Warriors come into this game off an impressive 126-110 win on the road against the Raptors as a 6-point dog. It was a nice win, but this a team I don't want a lot to do with while Steph Curry remains out of the lineup. That was the Warriors first win without Curry on the floor this season, as they are 1-4 in games without him. It's worth noting that the win did come against a struggling Raptors team that has lost 6 in a row. They also got a career-high 43 points from Joran Poole and shot 46.2 (18-39) on 3-pointers. No other Warrior player had more than 17 points. 

Warriors are just 4-13 ATS in road games this season and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after a SU win. Knicks are 16-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having covered 4 or more games in a row. Give me New York -4.5! 

9* NCAAB Sharp Money ATS ANNIHILATOR: USC Trojans +1.5

I'll take my chances with USC as a slim 1.5-point home dog against Auburn on Sunday. The Tigers come into this game with a 9-1 record, but their only two wins vs a team ranked inside the Top 100 at KenPom are a 43-42 win on a neutral site against Northwestern and a 65-60 win at home vs St. Louis. Their only other Top 100 matchup resulted in a 73-82 loss at Memphis.

USC had an ugly loss to Florida Gulf Coast in their opener, but have gone 8-2 since with their only losses being a 66-73 OT loss to Tennessee on a neutral floor and a 59-64 loss to Wisconsin on a neutral site. 

Trojans are elite defensively inside. USC ranks 15th nationally in opponent effective FG% at 43.1. They are also No. 4 in the country in 2PT% defense. That should be a huge factor in this matchup, as Auburn can't shoot from the outside. Tigers are 334th nationally in 3PT% offense. They are also just 232nd in offensive effective FG%. 

This will also be Auburn's first true road game of the season and it's a long way from home. The wrong team is favored in this one. Give me USC +1.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Knicks/Pacers OVER 226.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 226.5 in Sunday's matchup between the Knicks and Pacers. New York is rolling right now. Knicks come in having won 6 in a row. While the defense has played well during this stretch, they are scoring a healthy 117.6 ppg over their last 5 games and that's with them only shooting 44.6% from the field in those 5 games. 

In this game they will be up against a Pacers defense that is giving up 115.8 ppg on 47% shooting for the season. Key here is I think Indiana can keep pace offensively, especially at home, where the Pacers are scoring 117.3 ppg on 47% shooting. 

These are also two teams that like to play fast. Indiana ranks 4th in the NBA in pace and the Knicks are 10th. Give me the OVER 226.5! 

10* NCAAB Non-Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH: Kansas State -3.5

I'll take my chances with Kansas State as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Cornhuskers. This will technically be a neutral site game, which I think is factoring into the value we are getting with the Wildcats, as this will certainly feel like a home game for K-State with the game being played at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. 

This does feel like a better Nebraska team than what we have seen in recent years. They have an impressive 65-53 win over Creighton and just lost in OT at home to Purdue, who many believe is the best team in the Big Ten. With that said, they also lost by 16 on the road to Indiana in their Big Ten opener. They have a 20-point loss on the road to St. John's, 13-point loss on a neutral site against Oklahoma and a 12-point loss to Memphis on a neutral site. 

The Nebraska offense ranks 276th in 3P%, 328th in FT%, they also turn the ball over a lot and do a poor job of getting to the free throw line. I also think it's worth pointing out that the Cornhuskers' opponents this season are shooting a mere 60.5% from the free throw line. The 2nd lowest mark against any team in the country. That's pure luck. There's no defending a free throw. 

K-State who comes in 9-1 with their only loss in a true road game at Butler is simply the better team on both sides of the ball. Two stats that I love with the Wildcats is they are No. 9 defensively in the country in TO% and No. 6 offensively in assists/FG made. This team shares the ball at an elite level and forces the other team into mistakes. Give me Kansas St -3.5! 

9* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: San Antonio Spurs +7.5

I'll take my chances with the Spurs catching 7.5-points at home against the Heat on Saturday. Miami to me is a bit overvalued coming into this game. The Heat enter on a 3-game win streak, but just as easily could be 0-3 in those games. They had a 5-point win at Indiana, 2-point win at OKC and a 3-point win at Houston. 

It's also worth noting that all 3 of those games were played on the road. This will be Miami's 3rd road game in 4 days and their 4th in the last 6. I know there's a lot of positives on the injury front for the Heat in terms of guys playing, but this is a banged up team at this juncture of the season. Miami has 15 guys on their injury report. I just think it's asking a lot for them to go on the road and have their way with the Spurs. 

San Antonio is just 4-17 since their surprising 5-2 start to the season, but 3 of those 4 wins have come in their last 4 games. This will also be the Spurs third straight game at home and just their second game in the last 5 days. It would not surprise me at all if San Antonio won this game outright. Give me the Spurs +7.5! 

9* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Dallas Mavericks -3.5

I'll take my chances with the Mavs as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Blazers on Friday. This to me is a great spot to jump on Dallas at a discount after their ugly 90-105 loss at home to the Cavs on Wednesday. It was a dreadful offensive showing from the Mavs, who shot just 39.2% from the field against a stingy Cleveland defense. They aren't going to get the same kind of resistance from the Blazers. Portland is allowing opposing teams to shoot 47.4% from the field on the season and have allowed 49.0% shooting over their last 5 games. 

Mavs are 21-9 ATS last 30 games after failing to score at least 100 points in their previous game. They are also 31-19 ATS in their last 50 games off a SU loss and 10-1 ATS last 11 at home after a game that saw a combined score of 195 or less. Give me Dallas -3.5! 

10* NBA - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls -2.5

I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Knicks on Friday. I love the revenge spot for Chicago, as these two teams played in Chicago on Wednesday with New York securing a 128-120 win in OT. It's just not easy beating the same team twice on the road and this is a Chicago team that has thrived in this spot. Bulls are 25-12 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. 

There's also a big time system in play favoring a Chicago cover. Favorites that are off a home loss and revenging a loss as a home favorite are 83-37 (69.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Favorites off an upset loss as a home favorite against an opponent off a win as a road dog are 79-41 (65.8%) over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Bulls -2.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Maryland Terrapins -1

I'll take my chances with Maryland as a slim 1-point home favorite against UCLA. I think we are getting great value here with the Terps at basically a pick'em on their home floor. Maryland comes in having lost 2 straight after their perfect 8-0 start. Nothing to be ashamed about either loss, as they lost by 5 on the road to Wisconsin in Big Ten play and then by just 3 on a neutral site to Tennessee. UCLA comes in having won 5 in a row, but will be playing their first true road game outside of the state of California. Bruins two best wins are both in Pac-12 play, beating Stanford and Oregon. They lost their two other top tier matchups, falling 70-79 to Illinois on a neutral site and then 75-80 to Baylor on a neutral site. Give me the Terps -1! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Toronto Raptors -4.5

I'll take my chances with the Raptors as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Kings. This is an easy play on Toronto for me. This is an awful scheduling spot for Sacramento. The Kings aren't playing well, having lost 3 of their last 4. They were dominated last night in Philly by the 76ers. I just don't think this team has much gas in the tank. Not only are the Kings playing in the second of a back-to-back, but it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights and the 5th straight road game as they continue on their 6-game road trip. 

Toronto on the other hand is going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column after dropping back-to-back games on the road against the Magic this past weekend. Key here is the Raptors are going to have some fresh legs, having had the last two days off. Toronto is also a different team at home, where they are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS. 

Toronto is 20-9 ATS last 29 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days and 13-3 ATS last 16 at home off an upset loss as a favorite. Give me the Raptors -4.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Kings/76ers OVER 228.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 228.5 in Tuesday's matchup that has the Kings visiting the 76ers. Philadelphia has exploded offensively over the last week behind the incredible play of Joel Embiid, who is averaging a ridiculous 41.3 ppg over the first 4 games he's played in December. The 76ers have scored 123 or more in each of their last 3 games. All 3 of those games seeing a combined score of 144 or more points. 

I'm expecting another big night offensively from Embiid and the 76ers against a sub-par Kings defense. Sacramento is also playing their 4th straight on the road, so I don't expect a big effort defensively in this one. 

As for the Kings offense, I think it's poised for a big bounce back effort after scoring just 99 points on 39.8% shooting in their last game. It was the first time this season the high-powered Sacramento offense was held under 100 points. There's also a good chance the Kings get back star point guard De'Aaron Fox, who was back at practice Monday after missing the last two games. 

OVER is 31-19 in the Kings last 50 games in the last 2 seasons after going UNDER the total in their previous game. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 this season when the 76ers are well-rested, playing 6 or less games in a 14 day stretch. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

8* NCAAB - Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: Wisconsin Badgers +4.5

I'll take my chances with Wisconsin as a 4.5-point road dog against the Hawkeyes. I cashed on Iowa as a small home favorite against Iowa State, but I did bet that game before news broke that Iowa's best player, Khris Murray was ruled out. Murray is not going to play again today and I just think without him, they are going to have a much harder time against the Badgers. Iowa really just had one of those nights against their in-state rivals, as they were 12 of 23 (52.2%) from behind the 3-point line. This is not a team outside of Murray that has shot the 3-ball well. It helped the Cyclones seemed willing to give them wide-open looks from deep. The Badgers won't let that happen. Give me Wisconsin +4.5! 

8* NBA - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Phoenix Suns +3.5

I'll take my chances with Phoenix as a 3.5-point road dog against the Pelicans. I really like this spot for the Suns, who are going to be out for revenge from Friday's loss in Phoenix. One that ended with Zion doing a 360 dunk in the final seconds that really irked the Suns players. Phoenix is 20-9 ATS last 2 seasons when revenging a loss and are 15-4 ATS last 19 avenging a a loss as a road favorite. Even if Booker (Questionable) doesn't play, I still like the more motivated Suns to cash the cover in this one. Give me Phoenix +3.5! 

8* NBA - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Oklahoma City Thunder +5.5

I'll take my chances with the Thunder as a 5.5-point road dog against the Cavs on Saturday. Cleveland will be playing here on no rest after last night's 95-106 loss at home to the Kings. Donovan Mitchell sat out that game with a lower leg injury and could be held out of this one. Even if he plays, I like OKC to keep this close. Thunder have covered 4 of their last 5 and will have a big rest advantage in this game having not played since Wednesday. OKC is 9-5 ATS on the road this year, 31-18 in their last 49 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 21-9 ATS last 30 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Give me the Thunder +5.5! 

10* NCAAB Prime Time PLAY OF THE MONTH: Arizona Wildcats Pick'em

I'll gladly take my chances with Arizona at a pick'em against Indiana in Saturday's neutral site showdown at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. I'm sure there will be some Hoosier fans that make the trip, but there should be more Wildcats in the building given the short trip. More than anything, I think Arizona is the better team. I'm just not completely sold Indiana is as good as what everyone makes them out to be. In their only two games outside of Indiana, they squeaked out a 2-point win at Xavier and lost by 15 at Rutgers. I could see them being a big play against team away from Assembly Hall in Big Ten play. 

I know Arizona just lost by 15 at Utah in their Pac-12 opener, but they at least have some wins away from home, beating the likes of Cincinnati, San Diego St and Creighton at neutral sites. I also think it's a good matchup for the Wildcats. Indiana relies heavily on Trayce Jackson-Davis to shoulder the load. He's averaging 17.5 ppg. Only one other player averages in double-figures and that's Xavier Johnson at 10.0 ppg. 

I think the Wildcats have the size inside to make it difficult on Jackson-Davis to get easy looks at the hoop. Arizona weakness defensively is the 3-point shot. THey are 246th in Def. 3-PT% and 44th in Def. 2-PT%. I think it will be tough for Indiana to keep pace offensively in what figures to be a game that's played up and down the floor. Give me Arizona PK! 

10* NCAAB Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER: Kansas/Missouri OVER 152.5

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 152.5 in Saturday's matchup between Missouri and Kansas. This to me feels like a race to 80 points. Missouri may be 9-0 because of their schedule, but don't let that fool you into thinking this isn't a good team. I think they landed a gem at head coach in Dennis Gates from Cleveland State. They got 3 guys who can get buckets with returning leading scorer Kobe Brown (14.3 ppg), Cleveland State transfer D'Moi Hodge (16.7 ppg) and UNI transfer Noah Carter. They also get double-digits from Fordham/Clemson transfer Nick Honor (10.0 ppg) and UMass/Bradley transfer Sean East II (10.0). 

They are No. 12 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 3 in Eff. FG% and No. 2 in 2-PT%. They play at the 4th fastest game tempo in the country and own the 8th shortest average in time of possession. They are No. 4 defensively in TO%. This team wants to run and gun and keep it movin.

I don't see Kansas playing keep away. I think the Jayhawks will gladly turn this into a track meet. I also think they have the talent int he backcourt to not turn it over crazy. If you avoid the turnover, this Missouri defense has plenty of holes. 

Kansas ranks 51st in least amount of shot clock used. Yes they played a lower-scoring games vs Tennessee, Duke and Wisconsin, but all those teams rank outside the Top 125 in shot clock time used. 

Kansas has played 3 games vs teams who rank in the Top 65 in this stat. They combined for 158 in a 82-76 win over NC State (No. 39), combined for 154 with NC State in a 80-74 win (No. 43) and 156 in a 91-65 win over Seton Hall (No. 63). Give me the OVER 152.5! 

9* NCAAB Early Bird ATS SLAUGHTER: Louisville Cardinals +10.5

I'll take my chances with Louisville at +10.5. I know Louisville is bad, but so is Florida State. The Seminoles are 1-9 with their only win coming at home against Mercer. I just don't think this team should be laying double-digits against any conference opponent. The big thing to note about Louisville is their schedule. The Cardinals' last 5 games have come against Miami, Maryland, Cincinnati, Texas Tech and Arkansas. All of those teams rank in the Top 50 at KenPom. 

In their 3 other losses they were all 1-point defeats to Bellarmine, Wright State and App State. You got to think this team is chomping at the bit to get their first win and they have to feel like they got a chance in this game. If Louisville isn't competitive here, I'm going to jump ship immediately on this team going forward. I just think there's too much value given what we have seen out of the Seminoles. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Cardinals won this game outright. Give me Louisville +10.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Bucks/Mavs UNDER 224.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 224.5 in Friday's showdown between the Bucks and Mavs on ESPN. I'm expecting a pretty big effort from these two in this nationally televised game. Milwaukee comes into this game ranked 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency and I really like the fact that they got an elite perimeter defender in Jrue Holiday to put on Luka Doncic. 

I also don't feel like the Mavs get enough respect on the defensive side of the ball at home. Dallas is only giving up 104.4 ppg on 45.9% shooting at home this year. The Bucks are also a different offensive team at home. Milwaukee is averaging 113.1 ppg on 46% shooting for the season, yet are scoring just 106.3 ppg on 43% shooting on the road. UNDER has cashed in 7 of the 9 road games for the Bucks this season. 

UNDER is 20-7 in the Mavs last 27 as a home dog and 9-1 in their last 10 at home when they are playing 8 or more games in a 14 day stretch. UNDER is 20-9 in Milwaukee's last 29 with a line of +3 to -3 and 18-8 in their last 26 as a road favorite of 6 or less. Give me the UNDER 224.5! 

9* NCAAB Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Iowa Hawkeyes -3.5

I'll take my chances with Iowa at -3.5. This a full 3-points off the opening line of 6.5. That may have been a bit steep to lay with Iowa, but there's a big difference between only having to win a game by 4 instead of 7. 

I'm also not so sure why everyone is way down on Iowa in this spot. Iowa did not play well in their 62-74 loss to Duke in the Jimmy V Classic at MSG on Tuesday. It was also one of the worst games of the season for Kris Murray, who this team feeds off of offensively. I expect him to be a lot better in this one. 

I also don't think homecourt is getting enough respect here. Over the last 3 years Iowa is 33-5 SU on their home floor. They are 25-13 (66%) ATS in those games. Iowa State is 4-17 SU in road games the last 3 years. Home team has failed to cover just once in the last 6 meetings in the series. Give me the Hawkeyes -3.5! 

9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Phoenix Suns +1.5

I'll take my chances with the Suns as a 1.5-point home dog against the Celtics. I know Boston is winning and covering just about every time they take the floor, but no way I'm passing up on Phoenix as a home dog. Suns are 12-2 SU at home this season, winning on average by 10.9 ppg. You have to think we are going to get the best the Suns have to offer against the reigning Eastern Conference Champs, who own the NBA's best record at 20-5. 

There's also a chance Phoenix will be getting back two starters in Torrey Craig and Chris Paul. Getting back Paul would be huge. He's been upgraded from out to questionable and it just feels like this would be the game they circle for him to return. Either way, I like the Suns to win this game. 

Lastly, I think there's a chance here we catch the Celtics not in top form. Not only is this their 3rd road game in 4 nights, but you have to think Saturday's game against the Warriors, who beat them in the Finals, is one they might be looking ahead to. Give me the Suns +1.5!

9* NCAAB Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Nebraska Cornhuskers +13.5

I'll take my chances with Nebraska covering the 13.5 point spread on the road against the Hoosiers. I would be surprised if Indiana didn't win this game, but I think it's asking a lot for the Hoosiers to cover this big number, especially with a matchup against Arizona on deck Saturday. 

This is also a Nebraska team that I think is still being greatly undervalued even after their big 63-53 upset win on the road against Creighton this past Sunday. The Cornhuskers have looked like a different team since getting back their best player in Derrick Walker. He didn't play in either of their losses to St. John's or Oklahoma. The only loss with him on the floor is to Memphis. 

Nebraska is 6-1 ATS last 7 off a cover, 5-2 ATS last 7 on the road and are 10-3 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record. Give me Nebraska +13.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls -5.5

I really like Chicago to cover the 5.5 at home against the Wizards. This for me is all about the spot and the matchup. You have to think we get a huge effort here from this Bulls team. Chicago has had the last two days off to mull their recent funk. Not only do the Bulls come in off 3 straight loss, they are just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games. 

I do think this team will continue to disappoint until they get a healthy Lonzo Ball back in the lineup, but one thing Chicago has done under head coach Billy Donovan, is beat up on bad teams. Bulls are 35-14 SU and 31-17 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a home favorite. They are also 20-8 ATS last 28 at home vs a team with a losing road record. They have covered 4 of their last 5 at home vs the Wizards and 9 of the last 12 meetings overall. 

Washington comes in having lost 6 of their last 7 and are playing without Bradley Beal right now. Give me the Bulls -5.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Nuggets/Mavs UNDER 225

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 225 in Tuesday's TNT matchup between the Nuggets and Mavs. This will be the 3rd meeting between these two teams in less than 3 weeks, so there's plenty of familiarity between the two. These are also two of the slowest teams in the NBA. Dallas is tied with the Mavs for dead last in the league in pace, averaging just 98.1 possessions per game. The Nuggets are 24th at just 100.4. 

The Mavs figure to especially look to slow this game down, as they will be playing on no rest after last night's 130-111 win over the Suns. We have also seen the UNDER cash in 6 of the Nuggets 8 home games this season. We should also see a strong effort defensively from both teams with this being a nationally televised game on TNT. Give me the UNDER 225! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Duke Blue Devils -2

I'll take my chances with Duke as a mere 2-point favorite against Iowa in their showdown at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday. This is a good but not great Hawkeyes team and I just feel that they are getting a little too much respect here. Iowa is 6-1, but their two best wins are against Seton Hall and Clemson, who look like at best teams that will be on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. The one above-average team they faced was TCU and they lost that game 66-79. 

I just don't think the Hawkeyes are good enough defensively to slow down this Duke offensive attack. I also think the Blue Devils will be able to get a lot of 2nd chances on offense with how good they are on the offensive glass (#2 in the country in Off. Reb%). Duke is also very good defensively at defending the 3-point shot and without the deep ball falling in at a high rate, I just don't know how the Hawkeyes keep pace in this one. Give me Duke -2! 

10* NCAAB Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH: Wisconsin Badgers -1

I'll take my chances with Wisconsin as a mere 1-point home favorite against Maryland. I think this is a good spot here to fade the Terps. Maryland comes into this game 8-0 and fresh off a 71-66 win at home over No. 16 ranked Illinois. That win jumped the Terps from No. 22 in the polls all the way up to No. 13. 

No question this team is better than expected, but winning on the road in the Big Ten is no easy task, especially against a quality team like Wisconsin. Keep in mind that Maryland's only true road game this season was against Louisville, who has yet to win a game this season at 0-8. 

I also think Badgers team isn't getting enough respect for their 6-2 start. Wisconsin's only two losses are by 1-point in OT against Kansas on a neutral floor and by 3 at home to Wake Forest. A game where they led by 5 with less than 5 minutes to play and were right there despite shooting just 43% from the field and allowing the Deacons to shoot 54%. Badgers also have quality wins over Stanford, Dayton, USC and Marquette. Give me Wisconsin -1! 

9* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Detroit Pistons +6.5

I'll take my chances with Detroit as a 6.5-point home dog against the Grizzlies. Memphis is just not the same team on the road as they are at home. The Grizzlies are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS at home this season, compared to 5-7 SU and 2-8-2 ATS on the road. A big part of that is the lack of defense Memphis has played on the road. Grizzlies are giving up 118.0 ppg on 48.2% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from deep on the road. They will be facing a Pistons offense that has been much improved over the last couple of weeks. Detroit has shot 49% or better from the field in 5 of their lats 7 games, going for 50% or better in each of their last 2. This is also a well-rested Pistons team playing on a full 2 days of rest and this will be just their 2nd game in the last 6 days. Give me the Pistons +6.5! 

8* NCAAB Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: Iowa State Cyclones -4

I will gladly take my chances with Iowa State laying just 4-points at home against St. John's. I've really liked what I've seen out of this Cyclones team so far this year. Iowa State is 6-1 with their only loss coming to UConn, who is currently ranked No. 4 at KenPom. That was also a tired Cyclones team playing their 3rd game in 4 days and having just upset Villanova and UNC in their previous two. As for St. John's they are getting a lot of respect right now with their best win is against Syracuse and they needed OT to get it. That's also a Syracuse team that sits at just 4-4 with losses to Colgate and Bryant. Biggest reason the Red Storm are 8-0 is their schedule. St. John's strength of schedule ranks outside the Top 350. This will also be the Red Storm's first true road game of the 2022-23 season and ISU's Hilton Coliseum is one of the toughest places in the country to play. Give me the Cyclones -4! 

9* NCAAB Late Night ATS SLAUGHTER: Maryland Terrapins -1.5

I'll take my chances with Maryland as a small 1.5-point home favorite against Illinois. It's been an impressive start for the Terps under first year head coach Kevin Willard. Maryland is 7-0 and can really define their season with a 4-game stretch that has them facing Illinois, Wisconsin, Tennessee and UCLA. I just feel like they are right there with the top teams in this conference and with how much home court means in the Big Ten, you got to give the edge here to Maryland. This is also a bit of a tricky spot for Illinois, coming off a 73-44 blowout win over Syracuse and having a showdown with Texas at Madison Square Garden on deck next Tuesday. Give me the Terps -1.5! 

9* NBA - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Miami Heat +8.5

I'll take my chances with the Heat as a 8.5-point road dog against the Celtics. This will be a rematch from Wednesday. Boston won and covered as a 10-point favorite in a 134-121 win. It's been quite a run for the Celtics, who are now 14-1 over their last 15 with a 10-2 ATS record in their last 12. Not saying they will lose the rematch, but I do like Miami to put up more of a fight. Not as easy for Boston getting motivated to play the same team, especially after beating them the previous time out. Celtics could also be looking ahead to a 6-game road trip against the likes of the Nets, Raptors, Suns, Warriors, Clippers and Lakers. Give me the Heat +8.5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: North Carolina Tar Heels +5.5

I'll take my chances with North Carolina catching 5.5-points on the road against the Hoosiers. I think we are getting a great price on the Tar Heels in this one. UNC had opened the season 5-0 before blowing a 58-51 lead with under 5 minutes to play in a 65-70 loss to ISU. They then lost 101-103 to Arkansas in a thrilling 4OT game on Sunday. 

I just think it has them getting a few too many points here against what I think is an overrated Indiana team. The Hoosiers are 6-0, but 5 of those 6 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 250. The one good win they have is over No. 32 Xavier and they barely snuck that one out in a 81-79 win. You also got to look at how well the ACC has been playing in this ACC/Big Ten challenge. Give me the Tar Heels +5.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Bulls/Suns OVER 223.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 223.5 in tonight's game between the Bulls and Suns. I think the total here should be closer to 230. In the two meetings between these two teams last year they saw combined scores of 231 and 251. Chicago comes into this game playing well offensively, averaging 115.8 ppg over their last 5 and that's with the last 3 coming on the road and one of the other games at home against the Celtics. Suns have allowed over 50% shooting from the field in each of their last 2 games. Phoenix is scoring 116.2 ppg at home on 48% shooting and should be able to take advantage of a Chicago defense that struggles to defend the 3. Give me the OVER 223.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Bucks/Knicks OVER 228

I'll take my chances with the OVER 228 in Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Bucks. The books have really had a hard time setting the totals high enough in Knicks' home games this season. The OVER is 7-2 in New York's 9 home games and it's easy to see why. The Knicks are scoring 122.7 ppg on 48% shooting and giving up 122.2 ppg on 48% shooting. I don't think Milwaukee will have any problem taking advantage of that soft Knicks defense, especially with New York playing on no rest after last night's 140-110 win at Detroit. Bucks are a good defensive team, but have been slipping on that side of late, giving up 111.2 ppg on 48% shooting in their last 5. Give me the OVER 228! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Duke Blue Devils -5

I'll take my chances with Duke as a 5-point home favorite against Ohio State. I like the Blue Devils quite a bit in this spot. Duke should be highly motivated coming off an embarrassing 56-75 loss to Purdue. It was just one of those nights for the Blue Devil from outside, as they were just 2-19 (10.5%) from behind the 3-point line. I look for Duke to respond in a big way on their home floor, while I think this could be a tricky spot for the Buckeyes, who will be playing their first true road game of the season. Ohio State could also be a bit rusty, as they haven't played in a week. Give me Duke -5! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Virginia Cavaliers -4.5

I'll take my chance with Virginia laying 4.5 on the road against Michigan. I just have not been impressed with what I've seen out of this Michigan team early on. The Wolverines are 5-1, but the only Top 75 team they have played is Arizona State and they lost that game 62-87. Michigan has also struggled to put bad teams away. They got a 5-point win over Eastern Michigan, a 70-66 OT win at home against Ohio and last time out they beat Jackson State 78-68. The same Jackson State team that lost 51-90 to Indiana a few days later. 

As for Virginia, they are 5-0 with two Top 25 wins away from home. They knocked off Baylor 86-79 on a neutral floor and Illinois 70-61 at a neutral site. The Cavs aren't just winning with their defense this year. Virginia is No. 5 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 14 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are No. 4 in the country in 3P% and No. 2 in FTA/FGA. 

The one weakness Virginia's defense has had is defending the 3-pointer, as they are No. 202 in opponent 3P%. Michigan's not a great 3-point shooting team, ranking just 229th in 3P%. Really the only thing the Wolverines have done well is not turn the ball over, but that's negated by the fact that their defense ranks No. 306 in opponent TO%. I just don't think playing at home will be enough for them to make a game of it. Give me Virginia -4.5! 

8* NCAAB Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Baylor/Marquette UNDER 155.5

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 155.5 in Tuesday's Big 12/Big East showdown between Marquette and Baylor. I just think we are seeing an inflated number here due to the fact that these two teams come in having put up big time offensive numbers early on. The Bears are scoring 91.2 ppg and the Golden Eagles are putting up 80.3 ppg. 

What people overlook with these two teams is their defense. Both of these teams rank in the Top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. My real concern here is with Marquette and them being able to generate enough offense to push this into the 160s. Golden Eagles are No. 17 in the country in 2P% and No. 229 in 3P%. I just don't know if they are going to be able to attack this Baylor defense inside. 

Keep in mind the one really good defense they played so far was Mississippi State and they managed just 55 points. I know some of that is the Bulldogs dreadfully slow pace, but with a total this high I just think there's too much value to pass up. Give me the UNDER 155.5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Penn State Nittany Lions +1.5

I'll take my chances here with Penn State as a 1.5-point road dog against Clemson. I really like this matchup for the Nittany Lions, who I think are flying a bit under the radar right now. Penn State's only loss this season is a 59-61 setback against a good Virginia Tech team on a neutral floor. A game they nearly one, despite them trailing 9-25 with 8 minutes to play in the 1st half. Penn State does have 3 top 100 wins beating Butler, Furman and Colorado State. 

As for Clemson, the Tigers are 5-2 and just haven't impressed me. Their best win on the season in terms of where their opponents rank is a 67-59 win against No. 213 Cal and that's a Golden Bears team that is currently sitting 0-7 to start the season. Clemson did lose by just 3 to Iowa on a neutral floor, but the Hawkeyes were in control of that game for all but the last 5 minutes. 

Penn State will also have the best player on the floor in this game in Jalen Pickett. I just don't think the Nittany Lions should be a dog in this fight. Give me Penn State +1.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under TOTAL PLAY OF THE WEEK: Suns/Kings OVER 231.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 231.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Kings. I don't see these two teams having much trouble eclipsing this number. The Kings are seeing an average combined score of 241.8 ppg at home this season, as they are scoring 123.9 ppg and giving up 117.9 ppg. 

Phoenix is allowing just 107.7 ppg and 45.5% shooting for the season, but they are not the same defensive team on the road as they are at home. Suns are allowing 112.3 ppg and 48% shooting on the road. 

These are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the league, as they come in tied for 3rd in offensive efficiency at 113.4. Kings should be able to control the tempo here as well, as they are playing on a full 2 days of rest, while Phoenix is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

8* NBA - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Atlanta Hawks -1

I'll take my chances with the Hawks as a slim 1-point road favorite against the 76ers on Monday. This line doesn't exactly make a lot of sense. The 76ers come into this game having gone 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS over their last 8 games. They just won last night by 30 on the road against the Magic as a mere 1-point favorite. Atlanta on the other hand has lost their last two games as a favorite and are just 1-5 ATS over their last 6. 

Even with Embiid, Maxey and Harden all out for the 76ers, the public is all over Philly here as a home dog. I just think it's a bit of an overreaction with the 76ers recent success without their Big 3. Yes they had that big win at home over the Nets, but the other 3 games without their big 3 came against the Hornets and the Magic (Twice). 

I just think Atlanta should be favored by more in this spot. Hawks are going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column, while Philly could be a little over confident here after that 30-point blowout win. Hawks are the more talented team in this fight. Give me Atlanta -1! 

9* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Sacramento Kings +8

I'll take my chances with the Kings as a 8-point dog against the Celtics. This is just too many points to pass up with Sacramento. Boston is being way overpriced right now due to the fact that they come in having won 10 of their last 11. Also a good buy low spot on the Kings after an ugly 106-115 loss at Atlanta last time out. Sacramento has been playing extremely well since late October. The Kings are 10-3 SU and 10-3 ATS over their last 13 games. Sacramento has really come out looking to prove to everyone how good they are against the top teams and I expect them to give Boston all they can handle in this one. Give me the Kings +8! 

8* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Maryland Terrapins -23.5

I'll take my chances laying the 23.5 at home with Maryland against a bad Coppin State team. The Terps have been one of the big surprise teams early on this season, as they are way better than most anticipated. Maryland came into this season ranked just 56th at KenPom. They now sit at No. 24. In their last two games they have beat No. 45 St Louis 95-67 and No. 48 Miami 88-70. Now they face a Coppin State team that has already lost 3 times by a wide margin. They lost by 23 at No. 159 Charlotte, by 19 at No. 121 Marshall and by 16 at No. 81 Towson. The Eagles are awful on both sides of the ball, ranking 296th in adjusted off. eff. and 289 in adjusted def. eff. Maryland is 23rd in adjusted off. eff. and 34th in adj. def. efficiency. Give me the Terps -23.5! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Memphis Tigers -1.5

I'll take my chances with Memphis as a 1.5-point favorite against Seton Hall. The betting public is all over the Pirates in this game and I'm not sure why. Seton Hall is 3-1, but all 3 wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 250. The only real legit team they have played is Iowa and they lost at home to the Hawkeyes by a score of 67-83. 

As for Memphis, they are off to a 2-1 start and have played a pretty tough schedule to this point. All 3 of the Tigers' opponents have ranked inside the Top 100 at KenPom. They have a 76-67 win at Vandy and a 62-47 win at home against VCU. The only loss coming by 6 points to a St Louis team that comes in 5-1. Give me Memphis -1.5! 

8* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Michigan Wolverines -22

I'll take my chances with Michigan as a big 22-point home favorite against Jackson State tonight. I just don't see the Tigers being able to keep this one close against what should be a hungry Wolverines team that hasn't exactly played great basketball in their last two games. Michigan was upset last Thursday in an ugly 62-87 loss on a neutral floor to Arizona State and then needed OT to escape with a 70-66 win over a subpar Ohio team on Sunday. 

With this being their last game before a 6-day break, I got to think the Wolverines will be out to make a statement here. They should be able to do just that. Jackson State is ranked 309th in the country at KenPom. The Tigers are No. 332 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 272 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Jackson State also likes to play fast, ranking 49th in the country in tempo. 

I just think it's a recipe for disaster wanting to turn this into a transition game against this more athletic Michigan team, who ranks 29th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Give me Michigan -22! 

10* NBA Sharp Money PLAY OF THE WEEK: Charlotte Hornets -3.5

I will gladly take my chances with the Hornets as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the 76ers on Wednesday. Charlotte is just 1-11 over their last 12 games, but that's playing into the favorable number here. Even with Ball still sidelined, the Hornets are as healthy as they have been since the start of the season, as they just recently got back several key players including Hayward and Smith Jr. We should also get a big effort here from the Hornets given how fresh they will be for this game. Charlotte hasn't played since Sunday and this will be just their third game in the last 6 days. 

With all that said, this is even more a play against the 76ers in this spot. Philadelphia just played their hearts out last night against Brooklyn, despite missing all three of their Big 3 in Embiid, Harden and Maxey. They put everything they had into beating the Nets, as it was Ben Simmons' first game back in Philly. 

With the Big 3 all expected to be sidelined again tonight, it sets the 76ers up for a massive letdown on the road against a struggling Hornets team. Give me Charlotte -3.5! 

9* NCAAB - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: BYU Cougars -1.5

I'll take my chances with BYU as a slim 1.5-point favorite against USC on a neutral floor. The Trojans started out their season with an ugly 61-74 loss at home to Florida Gulf Coast, who we have seen go on to lose by the likes of 31 to Tennessee. USC has responded with 3 straight wins, but two of those were cupcakes against Alabama St and Mount St. Mary's. The other was a 2-point win against a free-falling Vermont team that is just 1-5 to start the year and has gone from being ranked No. 100 at KenPom to No. 160.

One of the big problems for USC is they are having to go at it without 5-star big man Vincent Iwuchukwu, who they desperately needed to step in and play a big role to fill the void left by Isaiah Mobley. 

BYU's only loss on the season is a 75-82 setback on the road against a very good San Diego State team and they had a lead late (led 67-61 with 6:50 to play) in that game before the Aztecs pulled away down the stretch. Give me the Cougars -1.5! 

8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Northwestern Wildcats -2

I'll take my chances with Northwestern as a slim 2-point favorite against Liberty in Tuesday's matchup in the Cancun Challenge. The Wildcats have gotten off to an impressive and surprising 4-0 start, as a lot of people threw this team under the bus when guys like Pete Nance (UNC) and Ryan Young (Duke) transferred after last season. 

Wildcats are getting enough offense, led by one of the Big Ten's better players in Boo Buie. They are also locking teams down defensively. Northwestern ranks 21st in adjusted efficiency on defense and No. 11 in effective FG% defense. 

Liberty is 2-2 and have been a bit of a disappointment. Losing to Alabama was to be expected, but it was the way in which they lost by 36 points (59-95). They also lost 72-76 at home to Southern Miss last time out. Defense has not been a strength for them, as they are 311th in the country in effective FG% defense. Give me Northwestern -2! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Sacramento Kings -2

I'll take my chances with the Kings as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Grizzlies on Tuesday. Easy play here for me on Sacramento. The Kings have been playing as well as any team in the league over the last month. Sacramento comes in having won 6 straight. They are 9-2 SU and 9-2 ATS over their last 11 games. 

Kings will be facing a Memphis team that will likely be without two of their best players, as star point guard Ja Morant is listed as doubtful and Desmond Bane remains out with a toe injury. Bane has easily been the Grizzlies second best player this season, as he's averaging 24.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.8 apg and is shooting 45% from deep (averaging 3.8 made 3's a game). 

I just don't see the Grizzlies being able to keep pace offensively without Morant and Bane. Kings have scored 120 or more points in all 6 wins during the win streak. Give me Sacramento -2! 

9* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Nevada Wolf Pack +6 

I'll take my chances with Nevada as a 6-point dog against K-State in Tuesday's action out of the Cayman Islands Classic. The Wolf Pack have really looked strong to start out the 2022 season, as it seems as though Steve Alford has got this team playing up to their potential after failing to do so a year ago. Nevada is 5-0 with a 13-point win over Grand Canyon who is ranked No. 103 and a 9-point win over Tulane who is No. 74. 

They are really locked in defensively, as they are sitting No. 3 in the country in effective FG% defense. They are No. 14 in 3P% defense, No. 3 in 2P% defense and No. 7 in Block%. 

K-State is 4-0 and certainly headed in the right direction under head coach Jerome Tang, but the strong start has come against an easy schedule. Three of their wins have come against teams ranked outside the Top 210 in UT Rio Grande Valley, Cal and UMKC. The other win is against No. 184 Rhode Island, who I'm not sure deserves to be ranked that high. Rhode Island is 1-3 with losses to No. 202 Quinnipiac and No. 190 Texas State. Give me the Wolf Pack +6! 

8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Mississippi State Bulldogs -2.5

I'll take my chances with Mississippi State as a slim 2.5-point favorite against Marquette on a neutral floor. The Bulldogs have shot up the rankings early on this season. KenPom had this team ranked 53rd going into their season opener against Texas A&M CC and they now sit 27th. They are 4-0 with their only win decided by fewer than 20 points being a 19-point win over Akron.

This team has clearly taken to new head coach Chris Jans and the emphasis that he puts on the defensive side of the ball. The Bulldogs rank 15th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 6th in effective FG% defense. They are also 1st in the country in Steal% and 21st in Block%. 

Marquette is off to a 3-1 start with their only loss coming by 5 on the road against Purdue, but this is a team that lost a lot from last year's squad and were a bit lucky to keep that game against the Boilermakers as close as they did. Purdue shot 62% on 2-pt attempts. The only thing that saved Marquette in that game was they piled on 15 offensive rebounds. I just don't see that being the case in this one. I also think Mississippi State's grind it out style could really take the Golden Eagles out of their game as they want to play fast. Give me the Bulldogs -2.5! 

10* NCAAB - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nebraska-Omaha/Iowa OVER 156.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 156.5 in Monday's non-conference matchup between Iowa and Nebraska-Omaha. I just don't think this total is near enough, as I really think we could see this Iowa team push the 100 point mark in this one. 

The Hawkeyes have been elite on the offensive end to start the year. They are 3rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. They also love to push the tempo, ranking 37th in adjusted tempo and 8th in average possession length. That offense is going to be up against one of the worst defenses in the country. The Mavericks rank 333rd out of 363 DI schools in adjusted defensive efficiency. We saw Kansas put up 89 on them earlier this year and as good as the Jayhawks are, they are just 24th in Adj OE and 29th in possession length. 

The other big thing difference between Iowa and Kansas is the Hawkeyes aren't nearly as good defensively. There are plenty of easy buckets to be had against this Iowa defense. I also think this is not a game where the Hawkeyes are going to be all that locked in defensively. One, it's hard to play all out on defense when you are scoring at will. Two, it's a bit of a flat spot for their defense coming off that big win over Seton Hall, it being Thanksgiving week and a big game on deck against Clemson looming Friday. Give me the OVER 156.5! 

9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Orlando Magic +7

I'll take my chances with the Magic as a 7-point road dog against the Pacers on Monday. I really like the revenge angle for Orlando in this one. These two teams just played each other in Indiana on Saturday, which saw the Pacers squeak out a 114-113 win as a 6.5-point favorite. That game snapped a streak of 9 straight covers by Indiana. 

Key here is I still think the Pacers are being overvalued by the books due to their recent success against the number. It's just not easy beating a team twice in a row and even with some key guys out like rookie Pablo Banchero, this Magic team has shown a lot of fight of late. Orlando is 6-3 ATS over their last 9 games. I not only like them to cover, but I give them a legit shot here to win this game outright. Give me the Magic +7! 

9* NBA - Situational ATS MASSACRE: Cleveland Cavaliers -9.5

I'll take my chances with the Cavs as a 9.5-point home favorite against the Heat on Sunday. Miami has been decimated by injuries. We know for sure that the Heat will be without Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo and Udonis Haslem. Duncan Robinson is doubtful. Gabe Vincent, Bam Adebayo and Dewayne Deadmon are all questionable. It's basically going to be a g-league team out for the Heat against one of the better teams in the league in Cleveland. 

Cavs had lost 5 straight before bouncing back with a 10-point win over Charlotte last time out. I just think there's plenty of motivation for Cleveland to take care of business given how things have gone of late. This is also a Cavs team that has played well at home. Cleveland is 5-1 on their home floor, where they are scoring 118.5 ppg. This has blowout written all over it. Give me the Cavs -9.5! 

8* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: DePaul Blue Demons +7.5

I'll take my chances with DePaul catching 7.5-points on a neutral floor against Oklahoma State. I think we are getting some value here with the Blue Demons at this price. This to me just feels like a bit of an overreaction with DePaul after Friday's 61-69 loss to Santa Clara as a 2.5-point favorite. 

The fact that the Blue Demons only lost by 8 points, despite them shooting just 34.4% from the field and finishing -16 in the rebound department says a lot about the potential of this team and let's not forget this team started out 3-0 with a road win over Minnesota before that loss. 

As for the Cowboys, they haven't exactly looked great to start the year. They only beat UT Arlington by 11 as a 20.5-point favorite. They lost outright as a 8.5-point favorite to Southern Illinois and last time out lost outright to UCF as a 6-point favorite. Give me DePaul +7.5!

8* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Seton Hall Pirates -18.5

I'll take my chances with Seton Hall as a 18.5-point home favorite against Wagner. I don't see the Pirates having any problem winning here by 20+ points. Big bounce back spot for Seton Hall after Wednesday's 16-point loss at home to Iowa. That loss looks worse than it is, as the Hawkeyes aren't getting a ton of love from the media. At least not yet. KenPom has that Iowa team ranked No. 15 in the country. 

Prior to the loss to Iowa, the Pirates dominated Monmouth 79-52 and St. Peter's 80-44. Both of those teams are ranked very similar to this Wagner team. The Seahawks are also at a scheduling disadvantage here, as they are playing this game on just 1-day of rest after facing Fairfield on Friday. Seton Hall has been off for a full 3 days and should be extremely motivated to get back on track. Give me the Pirates -18.5!

9* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: St Louis Billikens -3

I'll take my chances with St Louis as a slim 3-point favorite against Maryland as the two teams face off in Connecticut in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off. I just think there's value here with the Billikens at this price. Both teams are off to a 3-0 start, which I think is playing into the short number. Thing is, Maryland has beat up on a bunch of bad teams, beating Niagara, W Carolina and Binghamton. All 3 of those teams rank outside the top 250 at KenPom. 

This is also a Maryland team that figures to struggle against the better teams this year. The Terps lost their two best players (Fatts Russell and Eric Ayala) from last year's team and they went just 15-17 with a 7-13 mark in Big Ten play in 2021. 

As for St Louis, this team is loaded going into the 2022 season. The Billikens returned their top 4 scorers from last year's 23-win team. They have really looked the part early on, beating Murray State 91-68 and most recently Memphis 90-84. Murray State is currently ranked No. 125 at KenPom and Memphis is 29th. Give me the Billikens -3!

8* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Golden State Warriors -6.5

I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 6.5-point home favorite against the Knicks on Friday. I know it's been a tough start to the season for Golden State, who comes into this game with a mere 6-9 record. However, almost all of the struggles for the Warriors have come on the road, where they are 0-6 SU and 1-7 ATS. It's a different story at home, where Golden State is 6-1 SU and winning by an average of 10.3 ppg. 

This should also be a very motivated Warriors team coming off of Wednesday's 119-130 loss at Phoenix. At the same time, the Knicks have to running on fumes. New York pulled arguably the toughest back-to-back in the NBA on Tuesday and Wednesday, playing at Utah and Denver. I don't think just 1 day off with having to travel to California is going to have them refreshed. I like Golden State to really dominate this game from start to finish. Give me the Warriors -6.5! 

9* NBA Situational ATS SLAUGHTER: Chicago Bulls -9

I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a 9-point home favorite against the Magic on Friday. This is a game where I feel pretty comfortable laying the big number with Chicago against a bad Magic team. Not only that, Orlando is dealing with a ton of injuries. This is also a Magic team that has struggled on the road. Orlando is 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS away from home this season.

As for Chicago, this is a get right game for them after losing their last 3 and 5 of 6 overall. Not really a bad loss in there for the Bulls, as the losses have come against the Celtics, Raptors, Pelicans (twice) and Nuggets. It's really the same thing as last year for the Bulls, where they beat up on bad teams and fail to deliver against the better teams. It would explain Chicago being an impressive 21-8 ATS over the last 2 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Bulls are also 24-9 ATS last 33 as a home favorite. Give me Chicago -9! 

10* NCAAB Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: George Mason -3.5

I will gladly lay the 3.5-points with George Mason as they take on Boston College in the Virgin Islands for the Paradise Jam event. The Patriots had a tall task to start the year, opening the season on the road against Auburn. They hung around with the Tigers for a bit, but would eventually lose 52-70. They have since rebounded with wins and covers against Longwood and American. I really think this is a sneaky team in the A-10 this year, as they got 3 legit scorers who can carry the load. 

On the flip side of this, I'm way down on this Boston College team. The Eagles are also 2-1, but their wins are not impressive. They beat Cornell 79-77, who is ranked 205th. They also beat Detroit by a score of just 70-66 and they are ranked 227th. The loss is a bad one, as they fell 64-69 at home to 343rd ranked Maine as a 20.5-point favorite. No question this team was way overvalued coming into the season. They have gone from being ranked 74th at KenPom to 105th. Give me George Mason -3.5!