40* SPURS/MAVS NBA OVER/UNDER DESTROYER (Over 222.5)

I'll take my chances with the OVER 222.5 in Wednesday's NBA showdown between the Mavs and Spurs. I just think this total should be closer to 230 than 220. Dallas has really come alive of late. They won 9 of their last 11 games before the All-Star break. A big reason they surged is they got healthy and their offense starting producing close to the level it did last year when it was one of the best the league has ever seen. 

This is a team that can score 120 points and not even play well. Thing is they almost have to score that much because of how bad they are defensively. San Antonio is healthy and got most of their guys back after playing short-handed for most of February because of Covid. I think this a better offense than they are getting credit for right now. Give me the OVER 222.5! 

40* TEXAS A&M/VANDERBILT NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (Texas A&M +1.5) 

I will take a shot here with Texas A&M as a slim dog against Vandy in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. The Aggies are a team that are getting zero respect right now. A big reason for that is they only went 2-8 in SEC play. They also didn't play a single game in the month of February because of Covid and lost their first two games back. 

While they did lose at home to Mississippi State and on the road to Arkansas, I was impressed with how well they played given the massive layoff. They could have easily won that game at home against the Bulldogs and led by as many as 14 in the 1st half in their loss to the Razorbacks. 

Vandy is a team that went just 3-13 in SEC play and while they do have one of the better players in the SEC on the floor here in Scotty Pippen Jr., they lost their other stud late in the year in Dylan Disu. For a team that gave up 76.5 ppg in SEC play, I just don't think they have the scoring to advance to tomorrow. Give me the Aggies +1.5! 

50* MINNESOTA/NORTHWESTERN *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Northwestern -1.5) 

I will gladly take my chances here with Northwestern as a slim 1.5-point favorite against Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament. The Wildcats surprised everyone when they started out 3-0 in Big Ten play, but then proceeded to lose their next 13 conference games before ending the year on a 3-game winning streak. 

One of those wins was a 67-59 win on the road over these Gophers. I just don't see the outcome being much different. Minnesota completely fell apart in the 2nd half of this season. They were at one point sitting at 11-4 and ended up 13-14. They come in having lost 7 straight and its not a matter of if but when head coach Richard Pitino will be fired. 

The biggest thing for Minnesota is they are really banged up. Two of their better players, Gabe Kalsheur and Liam Robbins are both out with injuries. They also could be without senior forward Brandon Johnson. Keep in mind this is a team that struggled to score even when healthy. They were also 0-10 away from home this season, losing by an average of 14.8 ppg. Give me Northwestern -1.5! 

50* WAKE FOREST/NOTRE DAME *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Notre Dame -8) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Notre Dame laying single-digits against Wake Forest in the first round of the ACC Tournament. Nothing is a guarantee, but when you look at how bad the Demon Deacons have been and how these two teams matchup, a lot will have to wrong for the Irish to not win here by 10 or more. 

Wake Forest closed out the regular-season with 6 straight losses by at least 12 points. They played about as well as they could in the regular-season finale (senior night) and still lost by 12 to Georgia Tech, who didn't have a lot to play for. Yellow Jackets also were just 4 of 13 from behind the 3-point line and still won by double-digits. 

Notre Dame finished the year just 10-14 with a 7-11 mark in ACC play, but still come into this game ranked No. 67 in the country at KenPom. They played the 19th toughest schedule in the nation and were competitive in a lot of their losses. They also come in with some momentum after knocking off FSU 83-73 in the regular-season finale. 

In the only meeting between these two teams this season, Notre Dame dominated Wake 79-58 and were up by as many as 28 with under 5 minutes to play. Irish should feast from behind the 3-point line, as they were No. 5 in 3-point shooting in ACC play and WF was dead last in defending the 3-pointer. Demon Deacons also foul a lot and ND as a team shoots 77% from the free throw line. Give me Notre Dame -8! 

50* ST. MARY'S/GONZAGA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (St. Mary's +18)

I'll take my chances here with St. Mary's at least being able to keep it close enough to cover as a 18-point dogs in the semifinals of Monday's WCC Tournament action. While Gonzaga swept the season series with the Gaels, both games St. Mary's was able to keep it very close to this number. They only lost by 14 in the first meeting at home and while they lost by 22 on the road in the rematch, it took the Bulldogs shooting 61.1% from the field to win by that margin. 

You also have to keep in mind that while winning the WCC Tournament and preserving their perfect record going into the NCAA Tournament would be nice, it's not that big of a deal. Even if they were to somehow lose this game, they are still going to be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

I just think having not played now in 9 days and facing a desperate St. Mary's team that needs to win this tournament to get into the Big Dance, really increases the likelihood the Gaels came make a game of it. Give me St. Mary's +18! 

40* PENN ST/MARYLAND NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Maryland -5.5) 

I will gladly take my chances here with Maryland as a 5.5-point home favorite against Penn State. I think the Terps are one of the more underrated teams in the country, in large part because the Big Ten is so loaded and they started out so slow. They also lost at Northwestern as a 4-point favorite in their last game, which I think is playing into the value here. 

Thing is Maryland had won 5 straight before losing at Northwestern and that was really a game they should have won, as their defense once again was dominant, holding the Wildcats to just 36.4% shooting. That's now 6 straight games where they have held their opponent to 43% or worse from the field. 

Penn State comes in off a big 84-65 home win over Minnesota, but the Gophers are arguably playing the worst basketball of any Big Ten team down the stretch. Prior to that win the Nittany Lions lost by 21 at home to Purdue. Their only other win besides Minnesota since early February is a mere 3-point win at Nebraska. Give me Maryland -5.5! 

50* MICH ST/MICHIGAN NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Michigan St +8.5)

I've been on the Spartans quite a bit down the stretch, as Tom Izzo once again has his squad playing their best basketball when it matters the most. I did however, stay away from Michigan State in Thursday's road game at rival Michigan. Even though the Spartans were getting double-digits, I didn't like the spot on the road against a Wolverines team that was coming off that embarrassing loss to Illinois. 

It really set up a great spot and price to back Michigan State at home in the rematch with Michigan. While the Wolverines aren't just going to lay down against their rivals, this game definitely doesn't mean as much now that Michigan has wrapped up the Big Ten regular-season title. I also think cause they won that game on Thursday so easily, it makes it harder for them to get up for this rematch. Spartans desperately need a win here to boost their resume and I don't think it's out of the question that they pull off the upset. Either way I think this one goes right down to the wire. Give me Michigan State +8.5! 

40* FLORIDA/TENNESSEE NCAAB ATS KNOCKOUT (Tennessee -5.5) 

I like the value here with the Volunteers as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Gators. Tennessee has struggled a bit here of late, losing 3 of their last 5, including a 72-77 loss at Auburn as a 8-point favorite in their last game. I just think it has the Vols a bit undervalued here in their home finale against a Florida team that has won 3 of their last 4, but are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6. 

There's also a huge revenge factor here, as the Gators embarrassed Tennessee in Gainesville 75-49 earlier this season. Vols couldn't have shot it much worse in that one, as they hit a mere 29.3% from the field. Vols had won the previous 3 games in the series before that setback and are 16-5 SU in the last 21 at home against Florida. Give me Tennessee -5.5! 

40* XAVIER/MARQUETTE NCAAB LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Marquette -1.5)

I think we are getting a great price here with the Golden Eagles as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Musketeers. I love the fact that Marquette comes in having won 3 of their last 4 with the only loss coming against maybe the most underrated team in the country in Connecticut. 

The other huge thing here that I think a lot of people will overlook is the fact that Marquette has played their last 6 games on the road. I see the Golden Eagles being ecstatic to get back on their home floor and get their revenge against the Musketeers, who they barely lost to 88-91 on the road earlier this season. Speaking of close losses, 9 of Marquette's 13 losses have been by single digits. 

As for Xavier, they are just 2-4 in their last 6 and yes one of those wins was a big upset at home against Creighton, but they have lost their last 3 on the road to the likes of Georgetown, Providence and St. John's. The Musketeers are also a banged up team right now. Give me Marquette -1.5! 

40* USC/UCLA NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (USC -1) 

I think a lot of people are going to see UCLA as a home dog and instantly look to back the Bruins in this game. Not me. Going into last Saturday's game at Colorado, UCLA was in the drivers seat to win the Pac-12 regular-season title and get the No. 1 seed for the Pac-12 Tournament. Their path got harder following a 61-70 loss to Colorado on Saturday, but they still were in a great spot if they could beat Oregon on Wednesday. 

It looked like they were going to do just that. They controlled most of the game and were up by as many as 9 with just over 11 minutes to play. Things went bad in a hurry as they were outscored 31-14 the rest of the way and lost 74-82. 

I just think it's going to be really hard for UCLA to come out and be excited about this game given what's taken place the last week. Even if they were to win and Oregon somehow lost to Oregon State tomorrow, they still would lose out for the top spot because of a tie-breaker. USC on the other hand can win here and get the No. 1 seed with a Ducks loss, as they won the only meeting with Oregon. Give me USC -1! 

50* ILLINOIS/OHIO ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ohio St -2) 

I can't help myself here. I'm loading up on the Buckeyes -2 at home against Illinois. I get that the Fighting Illini have played great in the 3 games without Ayo Dosunmu. They have won all 3 and the last two were road wins over Wisconsin by 5 and Michigan by 23. I just think after what they did to the Wolverines, it has them getting way too much respect here. They were a 8.5-point dog to Michigan and now are only a 2-point dog. 

I think that Wolverines game was a result of Michigan just not taking Illinois seriously without Dosunmu. Thing is because of that game, that won't be the case here for Ohio State. Not that the Buckeyes were going to look past this game anyway. Ohio State is desperate to get things back on track after losing their last 3. I believe they not only win, but win going away. Give me the Buckeyes -2! 

40* ALABAMA/GEORGIA NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Alabama -8)

I'm going to take a shot here with Alabama as a 8-point road favorite against Georgia on Saturday. While the Crimson Tide have won their last 2 and are locked into the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament, I don't see them looking past their regular-season finale. Head coach Nate Oats has made it clear he wants everyone to play and really wants to get his team going offensively after failing to score more than 70 in their last 3. They also know this is their last game for a week given the byes they will get in the SEC Tournament. 

Getting their offense back on track against the Bulldogs doesn't figure to be a problem. The only team that ranks worse than Georgia in the SEC in defensive efficiency is Vanderbilt and in the previous meeting between these two teams back on Feb 13, Alabama scored 115 points in a 33-point blowout win. I just don't think you can play with the tempo Georgia wants to play at and be that bad defensively and expect to keep it close against this Crimson Tide team no matter the location. Give me Alabama -8! 

40* MINNESOTA/RUTGERS NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Rutgers -3) 

I will take my chances here with Rutgers -3 on the road against the Golden Gophers. I just think this Minnesota team is broken right now. The Gophers have went from being a team that was being projected as a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament to completely out of the picture. Minnesota has lost 6 straight coming into this game and there only hope now is to win the Big Ten Tournament next week. 

This team has a horrific time scoring the basketball and are as banged up as any team in the Big Ten right now. I think if Rutgers wasn't just 2-4 in their last 6 and off an ugly 21-point loss at Nebraska, this line would be a lot higher. Two of the other other losses this stretch were at Iowa and Michigan. 

The game definitely means more to the Scarlet Knights, as they are far from a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, something you know this program desperately wants given how long it's been. I just have a hard time not seeing Rutgers win this game. Give me the Scarlet Knights -3! 

50* GA TECH/WAKE FOREST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Georgia Tech -8)

I'll take my chances here with the Yellow Jackets as a 8-point road favorite against the Demon Deacons. These two teams are headed in complete opposite directions to close out the regular-season. Georgia Tech enters on a 5-game winning streak and have covered 6 in a row.

Wake Forest on the other hand has lost 6 straight and failed to cover 5 in a row. Demon Deacons haven't just been losing, they have been getting absolutely destroyed. All 5 losses during their 5-game skid have come by double-digits. They just have no offense to speak of. In these 5 straight losses they haven't shot better than 41% from the field and in their last 3 they have shot 36% or worse. 

While the Yellow Jackets have secured a first round bye in the ACC Tournament, they still aren't a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Simply put, this is not a game they can afford to lose. I just don't think it's asking much for Georgia Tech to win here by double-digits. Give me the Yellow Jackets -8! 

40* NEBRASKA/IOWA NCAAB STEAMROLLER (Over 152.5) 

I really like the OVER 152.5 in Thursday's Big Ten matchup that has Nebraska visiting Iowa. The Hawkeyes haven't had an offensive outburst for a while now. After scoring 88 at Michigan State on Feb. 13th, they have gone 4 straight games failing to reach the 80-point mark. I know 80 is a lot of points, but were talking about an Iowa team that averages 84.7 ppg (88.4 ppg at home). 

There is reason to explain their recent scoring slump, as 3 of their last 4 were on the road against Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State. It's going to feel like a breeze for the Hawkeyes offense against the Cornhuskers defense. Not only is Nebraska giving up 76.7 ppg on the road, but the Cornhuskers have no answer for Luka Garza down low, which is going to open up everything. 

The key here is I don't think it will just be Iowa's offense that has a big game. Nebraska has really come alive offensively, scoring 70 or more in each of their last 4 games. Keep in mind they hadn't scored 70 or more in more than 2 straight games all season prior to this stretch. Hawkeyes defense has been better, but I don't think Iowa will be as invested as they have been given the opponent and the fact that they are fresh off that huge road win over Ohio State on Sunday. Give me the OVER 152.5! 

50* TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (Oklahoma -2) 

I absolutely love this spot and price with the Sooners as a mere 2-point home favorite against the Longhorns. Oklahoma comes into this game having lost their last 3 with each of the last two being really close calls against rival Oklahoma State. To say the Sooners are going to be motivated for their regular-season finale at home is an understatement. 

Texas is also a team that I think is a bit overvalued. The Longhorns have gone just 5-6 since opening the season 10-1 and 4 of those 5 wins have come against Kansas St (2x), TCU and Iowa State. Those 3 teams are a combined 8-39 in Big 12 play. They did beat Kansas 75-72 at home, but needed OT and trailed by as many as 14 in that contest. Give me the Sooners -2! 

50* HEAT/PELICANS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Pelicans -2.5) 

We successfully played against the Pelicans last night, easily cashing the Bulls +5 in Chicago's 128-124 win (wasn't as close as the final score). It was just the perfect letdown spot for New Orleans coming off that huge win at home over the Jazz and having this prime time TNT matchup on deck with Miami looming tonight. 

I just think we are going to see a much more focused and determined Pelicans team in this one. The one thing you do have to concern yourself with in the last game before the all-star break is motivation, but I don't see that being a problem. Zion was so upset about how he played last night that he went back out on the floor for more shots after the game. 

The Heat have been playing much better here of late, but did just have their 6-game win streak snapped last time out in a 80-94 loss to the Hawks. They just couldn't get anything going offensively and that could be a problem here as well if Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo aren't able to play. Both are questionable with knee injuries and you have to wonder if it's worth it for the Heat to play them here instead of resting them with the long layoff looming. Even if they do play, I still like the Pelicans to win and cover. Give me New Orleans -2.5! 

40* BUCKS/GRIZZLIES NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 234.5) 

I know the UNDER has hit in each of the Grizzlies last 5 games and the last 2 for the Bucks, but I can't help myself with the OVER when these two face off tonight. I know it's been better here of late, but the Grizzlies are not a good defensive team. They have allowed 9 of their last 14 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. 

After scoring a mere 97 points on 40.5% shooting in Tuesday's ugly 31-point loss to the Nuggets at home, I feel really good about the Bucks offense showing up in a big way in this one. I could easily see Milwaukee scoring 130 in this one. 

I also think the Grizzlies could put up a big number here. Memphis has scored 120+ in 3 of their last 5 and are as healthy as they have been all season. Bucks are also not a great defensive team. They have given up 110 or more in 10 of their last 12 and are allowing 115.1 ppg on 47% shooting in road games this season. Give me the OVER 234.5! 

40* CLIPPERS/WIZARDS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -5) 

Regardless if Kawhi Leonard plays tonight (questionable), I really like the value with the Clippers as a mere 5-point road favorite against the Wizards. I see a very motivated LA team taking the floor in this one, as the last thing they want to do is go into the All-Star break on a 3-game losing streak. Paul George even went as far to say "It's a must-win for us...We wanna go into the break with a win, go into the break with positive...the game in Washington is a must-win"

Laying points on the road with the Clippers hasn't been a bad strategy over recent years. LA is 33-18 the last 3 seasons as a road favorite. They are a dominant 20-9 ATS last 29 times they are off an upset loss as a favorite (lost 112-117 at Boston as a 4-point favorite last time out). 

Wizards are a better team than they get credit for and even with losses in their last 2 games they are 7-3 SU in their last 10. However, I think this recent run has them getting a little too much respect here. Wizards are just 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and LA crushed Washington 135-116 in an earlier matchup between these two teams this season. Give me the Clippers -5! 

50* BOSTON COLLEGE/FLORIDA ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Boston College +19) 

I think we are getting a gift here with Boston College as a massive 19-point dog in Wednesday's game at Florida State. There's no question that the Seminoles are the better team and yes they need to win this game to stay on track to win the ACC regular-season title, but I just think it's asking a lot for them to win here by 20+ points. 

Boston College comes in with a mere 2-9 record in ACC play and are just 4-13 overall. The thing is, the Eagles just recently fired head coach Jim Christian and it was pretty clear that the players had given up on Christian a while ago. All you got to do is look back at some of their games and how they played and compare that to Saturday's performance in their 94-90 win against Notre Dame in the first game under interim head coach Scott Spinelli. It was like a different team took the floor in that game for BC. I think that effort/energy carries over to this game against FSU and if the Seminoles don't take the Eagles seriously, this could be a lot closer than expected. Give me Boston College +19! 

40* MISS ST/TEXAS A&M NCAAB NO-BRAINER (Mississippi State -5) 

I got no problem laying the 5-points on the road with Mississippi State, as they visit College Station to take on Texas A&M. I like the fact that the Bulldogs will be out for revenge from a 1-point home loss to the Aggies back in January, but that's a small factor in this one. 

This is 100% a play against Texas A&M given the circumstances. The Aggies didn't play a single game in the month of February, as they last took the floor against Kansas State way back on Jan. 30th. It's just near impossible for Texas A&M to come out and play well in this game after more than 30 days of no game action. Give me Mississippi State -5! 

40* BULLS/PELICANS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Bulls +5)

I'm going to take the Chicago Bulls +5 on the road against the New Orleans Pelicans. I think this is the perfect spot to fade the Pelicans. New Orleans just had arguably their biggest win of the season on Monday, as they knocked off the hottest team in the league in the Utah Jazz 129-124 as a 6.5-point dog. 

Keep in mind that's a game a lot of people tuned into, as it was televised on NBATV. The betting public won't be able to help themselves. All they are going to see is the Pelicans off that big win laying what looks like a short number at home against a mediocre at best Bulls team. 

What they will fail to take into account is that New Orleans is more than likely destined for a major letdown off that win. Not only will they be feeling fat and happy after that big upset over the Jazz, but they also will have a tough time not looking ahead to Thursday's game against the red-hot Heat in prime time on TNT. 

Note that New Orleans went all out against the Jazz, 4 of the 5 starters played 34+ minutes with big man Steven Adams the only not to. They also played a mere 3-guys off the bench. I wouldn't be surprised if they either looked to restrict some minutes on key guys in the 1st of a back-to-back or even sit a couple stars completely. 

I was on the wrong end of a horrible non-cover by Chicago in Monday's 6-point loss to the Nuggets, as the Bulls fouled down 4 with just over 1 second to play and were getting 5. Good news is Chicago is 18-5 ATS the last 2 seasons off a loss by 6 or or less, 9-1 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team from the Western Conference and 7-1 ATS last 8 as a road dog. Give me the Bulls +5! 

40* HORNETS/WOLVES NBA TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 232)

I will gladly take my chances here with the OVER 232 in tonight's game between the Hornets and Timberwolves. The OVER has been free money during Charlotte's current 6-game road trip. Each of the first 5 games on this trip have gone OVER the total and all 5 have seen a combined score of at least 234 points with 4 of the 5 going for more than 240. 

I think the only reason this total isn't closer to 240 is because the Timberwolves are coming off a game against the Suns at home where they only scored 99 points. That's just not a big concern for me when you factor in how bad the Hornets have been defensively of late. Charlotte has allowed at least 121 points in all 5 games on this trip and all 5 teams have shot 51% or better from the field. Minnesota also plays no defense, having allowed 118 or more in 4 straight with 3 of those teams going for 128 or more. Give me the OVER 232! 

50* HAWKS/MAGIC NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Hawks -3.5) 

I really like the value here with the Hawks as a mere 3.5-point road favorite against the struggling Magic. Atlanta has been one of the biggest underachievers in the first half of the season, but I think now is a great time to buy low on them. The Hawks fired head coach Lloyd Pierce on Monday and in their first game under interim head coach Nate McMillan they beat the Heat on the road 94-80. Doing so despite Trae Young only having a mere 5-points thru the first 3 quarters. 

I think the effort defensively was as good as it's been for the Hawks in that game and it's not uncommon for a team to flip the script and play with a new since of energy after a head coach gets fired. It also helps they are playing a Magic team that has not been playing well. Orlando comes in having lost 4 straight, giving up 124 or more in each of their last 3 games. They also could be down one of the better players in Evan Fournier, which would be a big loss with all the guys they already have out. Give me the Hawks -4.5! 

40* JAZZ/76ERS NBA TOTAL MONEYMAKER (Over 227.5) 

I just can't help myself here with the OVER with a total of just 227.5 in Wednesday's game between the Jazz and 76ers. These two teams just played on Feb. 15 at Utah and combined for 157 points in a 134-123 win for the Jazz. Neither team had an answer for the opposing offense, as both teams shot 50% or better from the field. Philadelphia also got to 123 points despite only making 8 of 23 from long-distance (avg 12 made 3's at home). 

I just don't think it's asking a lot for these two teams to each hit 114 points in this game, as that would be enough to cash the OVER right there. Utah hasn't scored fewer than 112 in 11 straight games and the 76ers are averaging 117.7 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 227.5! 

40* PROVIDENCE/ST JOHN'S NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (St. John's -1.5) 

I'm going to take the St. John's Red Storm -1.5 at home against the Providence Friars. I just think this is a great spot to sell high on Providence and buy low on the Red Storm.

St. John's comes into this game having lost 3 of their last 4, but could have easily gone 3-1 in this stretch, as 2 of the 3 losses were by 4 or fewer. The one that really sticks out is their most recent, which was a 58-81 thrashing on the road at the hands of Villanova. 

Prior to losing 3 of 4, the Red Storm had won 6 straight, which included road wins over UConn, Marquette and Providence, so they aren't that far removed from playing really good basketball. 

Not only do I like the fact that St. John's was able to beat the Friars on the road, but I also love that they have been sitting on that loss to Villanova for a week now. I full expect this team to be 100% locked in when they take the floor at Carnesecca Arena Wednesday night. 

Providence has won 3 of 4, but two of those are nothing to get excited about. One was a win over UConn without their best player in James Bouknight and another was against a Depaul team that has lost 7 of 8. They did just beat Xavier by 15 at home in their most recent game, which looks really good, but that was a result of them shooting lights out.

Friars shot 54% from the field, including 11 of 21 from deep. This is a team that had shot better than 43% just once in their previous 8 games. They have also shot just 42.7% from the field in road games this season. 

St. John's is a very strong 9-3 at home this season and have been a great team to back at home over the last couple of years, going 19-10 ATS on their home floor the last 2 seasons. They are also great in this spot off a big loss, as they have covered 8 of their last 9 at home off a conference loss by 10 or more. 

They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS at home this season against teams like Providence who don't force many turnovers, averaging 14 or fewer turnovers/game. Friars are also 1-8 ATS last 9 games vs up-tempo teams who average 62 or more shots/game. St. John's averages 65 and play at the fastest tempo of any team in the Big East and rank 12th nationally in pace of play. Give me the Red Storm -1.5! 

40* NUGGETS/BUCKS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Bucks -7) 

I got no problem laying the 7-points with Milwaukee at home against the Nuggets. I'm still pissed about Denver pulling off that stupid cover last night against the Bulls. Nuggets were lucky not to lose that game after leading by double-digits. I just don't see Denver having enough gas in the tank here to keep it close against a Bucks team that I believe is starting to get back on track. 

Not only are the Nuggets playing on no rest, this will be their 3rd road game in 4 days. A stretch that is that much more difficult when you factor in all the guys the Nuggets have been without. Bucks have won 5 straight and covered in 4 of those. They are also riding a huge wave of momentum after their comeback win at home over the Clippers last time out. Give me Milwaukee -7! 

50* KENTUCKY/OLE MISS NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Ole Miss -3) 

I love the value here with Ole Miss as a mere 3-point home favorite against Kentucky. Lot of people might be hesitant to back the Rebels after watching them lose outright at Vandy on Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite, especially given the Commodores were down their two best players. 

Thing is, the Rebels really didn't have much to play for. Even though Ole Miss had won 5 of 6 coming into that game, they know their only path to the NCAA Tournament is to win the SEC Tournament. Makes it pretty easy for them to struggle to show up with the right kind of mindset against a bad Vandy team that didn't figure to put up a fight without their two best players. 

I expect to see a completely different Ole Miss team when they take the floor here against Kentucky. I know the Wildcats have played better of late, but this is just not their season. Books have also continued to overvalue this team. Kentucky is just 3-9 ATS in their last 12. Give me Ole Miss -3! 

40* DUKE/GA TECH NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Georgia Tech -1.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Yellow Jackets as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against Duke. The Blue Devils have been playing better here of late and all the talk right now is what Duke has to do to make the NCAA Tournament. I'm not denying that the Blue Devils are playing better, I just think it has them overvalued here against the Yellow Jackets. 

Georgia Tech is one of the better teams in the ACC that people don't know about. The Yellow Jackets are just 9-6 in league play, but could be much better as they have had a number of games not go their way late in games. They have figured out how to close games out here of late, as they come in having won 4 straight. One of those games they felt like they should have won that they didn't was a 68-75 loss at Duke earlier this season. No way they have forgot about that loss. Yellow Jackets are also 12-3 ATS last 15 at home after 2 straight games where they made 50% or more of their shots and a perfect 7-0 ATS last 3 seasons when they come in having won 3 or more games in a row. Give me Georgia Tech -1.5! 

40* GRIZZLIES/WIZARDS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Wizards +1) 

I think we are getting some exceptional value here with the Wizards as a home dog against the Grizzlies. Washington isn't viewed as a very good team and are just 13-19 on the season. Thing is the Wizards have been playing their best basketball over the last couple of weeks. Washington is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. 

The other big thing here is we are seeing Memphis way overvalued after their 133-84 thrashing of the Rockets on the road in their last game. That was more of Houston being an absolute mess than anything. Not saying the Grizzlies aren't a good team, but I don't think they should be favored on the road here. Wizards are 10-1 ATS last 11 home games after covering 4 of their last 5. Give me Washington +1! 

40* WAKE FOREST/PITT NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Pittsburgh -4.5) 

I will gladly take my chances here with Pitt as a slim 4.5-point home favorite against Wake Forest. I know the Panthers have had a couple of key guys decide to leave the team via the transfer portal, but it's not as bad as it might look. Pitt comes in having lost 5 straight and 8 of their last 9, but could easily have a winning record during this stretch. Of those 8 losses, 7 have come by 10 or fewer with 3 of them by 3 or fewer. 

I just think that this team has been so close that they are going to show up here and take care of business against the Demon Deacons. I don't even know if they need their best showing to win and cover here. Wake Forest has lost 5 straight and have struggled to even keep games close. In their last 4 games they have lost by 24 at home to Duke, by 18 at home to NC State, by 21 at home to Clemson and by 38 at Virginia Tech. Give me Pittsburgh -4.5! 

40* HORNETS/BLAZERS NBA LATE NIGHT BAILOUT (Over 233) 

I like the OVER 233 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Blazers and Hornets. The OVER has been cash money in games with Charlotte as the road team. The Hornets have played 16 games away from home and 12 have gone OVER the total. Charlotte is averaging 114.1 ppg on the road and giving up 117.3 ppg. In just the last 5 games the Hornets are scoring 116.8 ppg and giving up 121.8 ppg. 

Key here is the Blazers figure to get back on track offensively after really struggling on that side in their 4-game skid. Portland just ran out of gas playing short-handed. They should have their legs back under them in this one, as they have had the last 2 days off. Prior to losing 4 straight, Blazers had scored at least 115 in 5 straight and I think they easily get there in this one. In fact, I see both teams reaching 120. Give me the OVER 233! 

40* OKLAHOMA/OKLAHOMA ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Oklahoma -1.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Sooners as a 1.5-point road favorite against the Cowboys. This line smells something awful. Oklahoma just lost at home to Oklahoma State 90-94 in OT on Saturday. That's now back-to-back losses for the Sooners, while the Cowboys have won 4 straight. 

The betting public won't be able to help themselves here with Oklahoma State as a home dog. When it looks like the wrong team is favored, especially this late in the year, in a game of this magnitude, you got to look the other way. That's exactly what I'm doing. I still think the Sooners are the better team. Keep in mind it took a career-high 40 points from freshman Cade Cunningham for the Cowboys to get that win in Norman on Saturday. 

Oklahoma State is also a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games when off 2 or more consecutive wins and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 if off 3 or more consecutive wins. Sooners are 11-3 ATS last 14 on the road when playing a good team that's won 60% to 80% of their games. Give me Oklahoma -1.5! 

50* NUGGETS/BULLS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bulls +5)

I love the value here with the Bulls catching 5-points at home against the Nuggets. Denver is just getting a little too much love here on the road coming off that big 30-point road win over OKC. Even with that win the Nuggets are just 6-7 over their last 13 games. Denver figures to continue to struggle until they get back to full strength. They are down two key players right now in Milsap and Harris. They also won't have JaMychal Green. 

Bulls come in off a 9-point home loss to the Suns, but had won 5 of 6 prior to that loss. What I love here is that Chicago is well rested, playing on a full 2 days off. They also haven't had to deal with any travel, as they last played on the road Feb. 22nd. Bulls have covered 12 of their last 16 vs a team from the Western Conference. Nuggets are also just 3-15 ATS last 18 off a game where they made 55% or more of their shots and 4-16 ATS last 20 on the road after a win by 15 or more. Give me the Bulls +5! 

50* WIZARDS/CELTICS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Celtics -5.5) 

I will take a shot here with the Celtics as a 5.5-point home favorite against the Wizards. Boston made it clear they wanted to finish out their last 4 games before the All-Star break and they delivered in their first game, beating the Pacers 118-112. 

I've seen it all from this team over the last couple months, but I'm confident they show up here and make easy work of Washington. Boston caught a lot of grief losing at Washington as a 7-point road favorite a couple weeks ago, so I don't see them looking past the Wizards. This is also a brutal spot for Washington, who will not only be playing on the road in the 2nd leg of a back-to-back, but their 5th game in the last 7 days. Give me the Celtics -5.5! 

40* CLIPPERS/BUCKS NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Under 237)

There's no denying that these are two of the better offensive teams in the league, but the total here suggests that neither of these two teams will play any defense. I know the defensive numbers aren't great at times for either of these teams, but I think a lot of that is these two teams have a tendency to play defense when they want. I think both can be elite on that side of the ball if they so choose. 

I think both of these teams are going to treat this game a little different. I see it more as a final statement for each team before the All-Star break. I also think the unusual 3:30 EST start time will have both teams a little bit out of their comfort zone on the offensive side of the ball. Give me the UNDER 237! 

40* MICHIGAN ST/MARYLAND NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Maryland -2.5) 

I think we are getting big time value here with the Terps as a small home favorite against the Spartans. Michigan State has made quite a statement over their last 3 games, beating Indiana on the road before knocking off Illinois and Ohio State at home. No question Tom Izzo has this team playing better, but this is the Big Ten we are talking about. 

Winning on the road in this conference is extremely difficult. I think all the talk coming into this game will be about how good the Spartans are playing. I don't think it will sit well with a Maryland team that has won 4 straight and are 8-4 in their last 12 overall. I just feel laying less than 3 points at home with the Terps is too good to pass up. Give me Maryland -2.5! 

40* MAVS/NETS NBA TOTAL STEAMROLLER (OVER 238.5)

I know we have had hit a bit of a rough stretch here with the OVERs in Brooklyn games, as the UNDER has cashed in 3 of their last 4, but I'm not ready to jump off the ship just yet. I think we are actually getting some decent value here, as my numbers suggest that this total should be closer to 245. 

I just think the fact that Dallas is coming off a game where they score just 97 points at Philly and the Nets off a game where they held the Magic to 92, has this total much lower than it should be. Brooklyn is still scoring at an elite level and the Mavs when right are one of the best offensive teams in the league. Key here for me is I think Porzingis will be back for Dallas, as he practiced on Friday. I also think Doncic should be able to expose Harding and Irving, as neither of those like to play defense. I see both teams in the 120s. Give me the OVER 238.5! 

40* PACERS/KNICKS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Pacers +1)

I think this is the perfect spot to jump on the Pacers. We are getting some exceptional value here with Indiana because of the fact that they have lost 9 of their last 13, while the Knicks come in having won 5 of their last 7. 

It's clearly not been great for Indiana of late, but I just think more than anything they haven't got some breaks in games and have had played a pretty tough schedule during their current skid. New York is clearly better than they were a season ago, but this is still a mediocre team at best. I mean their 5 wins during this 5-2 run have come against the Kings, Timberwolves, Hawks, Rockets and Wizards. 

Indiana was a 10-point home favorite against New York back on Jan. 2, which means if those two would have played in NY on that day the line would have been something like Pacers -6 or -7. I just don't think the Pacers are that much worse and the Knicks are that much better that this line should be adjusted this much. Give me Indiana +1!

40* ALABAMA/MISS ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Alabama -5.5) 

I know this is going to be a big public play, but if there's one team in the SEC that I will go down swinging with it's Alabama, especially when the Crimson Tide are coming off a loss like they are here. Alabama played about as poorly as they could in Wednesday's 66-81 setback to Arkansas. 

I'm confident Nate Oats will have this team ready to go on Saturday at Mississippi State. A team they can beat with ease if they show up with the right mindset. I just don't see the Bulldogs being able to keep pace offensively. Alabama is scoring 83.4 ppg in SEC play and Mississippi State averages a mere 66.9 ppg in conference games. Give me the Crimson Tide -5.5! 

50* FLORIDA ST/N CAROLINA NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (North Carolina +3.5) 

I really like North Carolina as a 3.5-point home dog against Florida State. I think we are getting exceptional value with the Tar Heels because of the fact that they come into this game off an ugly loss at home to Marquette, losing by 13 as a 9.5-point favorite. While I didn't think they would lose, that wasn't a surprising result for me (I was on Marquette), as I thought that was a trap game for UNC off that huge 99-54 win against Louisville and having this huge game against FSU on deck. 

Florida State is a really good team and are currently 2-games in front in the ACC standings over Virginia, but I don't know that the Seminoles are elite. I think they are getting a little too much love in this spot. North Carolina is a team that has gotten better and better as the season has went on and simply put this game means a lot more to them than it does the Seminoles. UNC also has proven they can hang with FSU, as they lost by just 7 on the road earlier this season. Give me the Tar Heels +3.5! 

40* ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Wisconsin -4) 

No way am I passing up a play on Wisconsin as a mere 4-point home favorite against Illinois with the Fighting Illini down not just their best player but one of the best players in the country in Ayo Dosunmu. I get Illinois destroyed Nebraska by 16 without Dosunmu on Thursday, but that's Nebraska. Most of the top Big Ten teams could beat the Cornhuskers by double-digits on their home floor without their best player. 

Not only that, but the Fighting Illini are playing this game at Wisconsin on just 1 day of rest and as good as the Badgers are, it will be hard for Illinois to not look ahead to Tuesday's huge road game at Michigan. As for Wisconsin, they really need a win here after going just 4-5 in their last 9. They will definitely be the fresher team, as they have been off since Sunday. I think it all adds up to not just a win but an easy win for the Badgers. Give me Wisconsin -4! 

40* CLIPPERS/GRIZZLIES NBA VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Clippers exacting their revenge and covering the 6.5-point spread against the Grizzlies tonight. These two teams played last night in Memphis and the Grizzlies embarrassed LA in a 122-94 win as a 8-point dog. 

As you can see we are getting 1.5-points of value off the spread, which I think is huge given how motivated the Clippers should be for this game. LA couldn't have played much worse in last night's loss, as they shot just 40% from the field and allowed Memphis to shoot 54%. They were also -8 in turnovers, were outscored 74-24 in the paint and 21-4 in fast break points. No way this team plays that poorly in back-to-back games against the same team. Give me the Clippers -6.5! 

50* SUNS/BULLS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Suns -5.5)

I will gladly lay the 5.5-points on the road with Phoenix against the Bulls. I just think Chicago is getting a little too much respect in this one. Bulls have gone 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games, but it's really not that impressive when you look at who they have played. 

The 5 wins during this stretch have come against the Pacers, Pistons, Kings, Rockets and Timberwolves. So 4 of those wins are against teams who currently own the 4 worst records in the league in Detroit, Sacramento, Houston and Minnesota. Indiana is just 15-15 and have been playing some of their worst basketball of late. 

Phoenix is one of the best teams in the league with a 20-11 record. The Suns have won and covered 9 of their 14 road games this season and will definitely be motivated for this game coming off an ugly 121-124 loss at home to Charlotte as a 9-point favorite. Give me Phoenix -5.5! 

40* N TEXAS/MARSHALL NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Marshall -3.5) 

I will gladly lay the 3.5-points at home with Marshall on Friday as they get ready to host Nort Texas. The Mean Green come in tied with WKU for the best record in C-USA at 8-2, but it's a bit misleading. North Texas has only played 2 games to this point against the Top 5 teams in the conference (N Texas, WKU, La Tech, UAB and Marshall). Those both coming against LA Tech at home. They lost the first game to the Bulldogs and barely won the second by a final of 57-55. 

Simply put I think the Mean Green are way overvalued in what will easily be their toughest road challenge since playing 3 on the road in non-conference against Arkansas, Miss St and W Virginia. Marshall has won 6 of their 8 home games with the only setback at home in conference play against what I think is the best team in C-USA in WKU (only lost by 2). Give me the Thundering Herd -3.5! 

40* OHIO ST/MICHIGAN ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Michigan St +4) 

I will take a shot here with Michigan State as a 4-point home dog against Ohio State. You always expect a Tom Izzo coached team to progress as the season goes on and it feels like this Spartans team has turned a big corner in the last week. 

It started on Saturday when they went on the road and beat Indiana 78-71 as a 6.5-point road dog. They followed that up with an even more impressive win, beating Illinois 81-72 as a 8.5-point home dog. There will be no letdown or taking the foot off the gas, as Michigan State needs this game to really improve their chances at an NCAA Tournament bid. 

Most will see this as a big bounce back game for Ohio State after having their 7-game winning streak snapped in Sunday's 87-92 loss to Michigan. I'm not sold on that being the case. That was such a huge game against the Wolverines. I actually think they could come out flat here. Keep in mind they got two massive games on deck to close out Big Ten play at home against Iowa and Illinois.

Buckeyes will also be short-handed in this game. Starting power forward Kyle Young is out with a concussion. They could also be without key reserve Musa Jallow, who is questionable after missing their last game with an ankle injury. Give me the Spartans +4! 

50* MAGIC/NETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 228) 

If you have been following my NBA picks this year, you knew that the OVER in tonight's Brooklyn/Orland game was going to be on the board. I just don't know the books can make the numbers high enough for these Nets games.

I definitely will be a little more cautious with the OVER going forward when Brooklyn plays a top tier team, as we did just see the UNDER cash in their two games with the Lakers and Clippers, but no way am I not taking the OVER when they are playing a sub-par team like Orlando. 

The Nets are so good offensively, even without Durant, that they know they don't have to play all that hard on the defensive end to win games. I definitely don't see them being interested in giving that extra effort against the Magic and it's not like we need 240 in this one, we just need to get to 230. These two combined for 137 in a recent meeting on Jan. 16 and that was with them only reaching 102 at the half. Give me the OVER 228! 

40* W KENTUCKY/HOUSTON NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (WKU +12)

I really like the value here with the Hilltoppers as a 12-point road dog against No. 12 Houston. We cashed in a very similar spot last night with Marquette as a 9.5-point dog at North Carolina. The Golden Eagles not only covered, they won the game outright 83-70. 

Playing out of conference this late in the year is a bit challenging and I think it's more so for a team like Houston, who doesn't have a whole lot to prove right now. Cougars also have to be feeling themselves a little bit after absolutely destroying Cincinnati 90-52 in their last game. 

This game means so much more to a team like Western Kentucky and you can bet they aren't too happy about how big a dog they are in this game. That's only going to light the fire that much more for the Hilltoppers. Not like we haven't seek WKU show out against top tier teams, as they only lost by 6 to West Virginia on a neutral floor back in November and won at Alabama 73-71 in mid-December. Give me the Hilltoppers +12! 

40* TENNESSEE/VANDERBILT NCAAB ATS ANNIHILATOR (Vanderbilt +8)

I'm willing to take a shot here with the Commodores as a near double-digit home dog against the Volunteers. Vanderbilt comes into this game a mere 6-12 overall and 2-10 in SEC play, but if you look closely you will see that the Commodores haven't been playing as bad as their record would indicate. Out of their 10 losses in SEC play, 7 have come by 7 points or fewer, which includes each of their last 5 conference losses. They just lost by a mere 4-points at Alabama in their last game, who is by far the best team in the league. 

Tennessee did beat Vandy by 20 at home earlier this year, but the Vols aren't playing at near the same level now as they were when they faced off in mid January. Tennessee just lost at home to Kentucky 70-55 in their last game. Any time a good team like the Vols are off a bad loss and playing a bad team, public loves to back them and it creates value on the other side. Give me Vanderbilt +8! 

50* WOLVES/BULLS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Bulls -4)

I love the Bulls -4 at home against the Timberwolves tonight. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 and have owned bad teams at home like Minnesota, cashing 8 of their last 10 at home against a team with a losing road record. 

The Timberwolves are just 1-9 in their last 10 games, have failed to cover 5 straight and are a mere 3-13 on the road this season. If that's not bad enough, Minnesota is also in a horrible rest situation playing on no rest and their 3rd road game in 4 days. This line should be closer to 7. Give me the Bulls -4! 

40* RUTGERS/INDIANA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Rutgers -3) 

I'm going to take the Rutgers Scarlet Knights -3 at home against the Indiana Hoosiers. I think this is a great buy low spot on Rutgers, who comes in having lost 3 of their last 4. While two of those were road games at Iowa and Michigan, the most recent was a 59-68 setback at home to Maryland as a 5-point favorite.

That's the game the betting public will have trouble looking past and I believe why we are getting such a great price in this matchup. Big thing to note with the bad showing against the Terps is it did come on just 2 days of rest after really laying it all on the line against Michigan the game before. 

While Rutgers hasn't been as dominant at home as they were last season, they are a very respectable 9-4 at the Athletic Center and prior to the loss to Maryland the other 3 home losses were all to teams ranked in the Top 15 at KenPom in Iowa, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Last two times they have hosted Indiana they have come away with easy wins. Last year they beat the Hoosiers 59-50 and the year before won 66-58. 

As you can see Rutgers defense really made life miserable on Indiana's offense and I think we are going to see that trend continue. Scarlet Knights are only giving up 66.9 ppg on 41.1% shooting at home this year and the Hoosiers are far from a great offensive team. While Indiana does average 70.3 ppg on the road, they have shot just 43% from the field in those games and those ppg numbers are a bit skewed because of the fact that they have played 5 OT periods on the road this year. 

I just don't see the Hoosiers being able to keep pace in this one and I think we are getting a solid 2-3 points in value on the number here. Give me Rutgers -3! 

40* WARRIORS/PACERS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Pacers -3) 

I'm going to take the Indiana Pacers -3 at home against the Golden State Warriors. I just feel this is too good a price to pass up with the Pacers at home, given the huge rest edge they will have on Wednesday.

Indiana has had the last week off after Saturday's game at Houston was postponed because of the ice storm that hit Texas and Monday's game at home against the Spurs because of a Covid outbreak within the San Antonio organization. 

While the Pacers will be fresh and eager to get back in action, the Warriors will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back after Tuesday's game in New York against the Knicks. Not only will Golden State be on no rest, but this will be their 4th game in 6 days as they played a back-to-back at Orlando and Charlotte on Friday/Saturday. 

The word is the Warriors could be getting back two big men in Kevon Looney and James Wiseman for the game against the Knicks. Those are definitely two key guys returning for Golden State, but if they play against New York I wouldn't be shocked if they played it safe and didn't play them against the Pacers. Either way those two figure to be a little rusty. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Warriors didn't rest some other guys in this spot. 

Also worth pointing out Golden State has been a good fade on no rest, as they are just 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games in the second of a back-to-back. They are also just 5-13 ATS last 18 trips to Indiana. Give me the Pacers -3! 

40* MARQUETTE/N CAROLINA NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Marquette +9.5) 

I really like the value here with Marquette as a 9.5-point road dog against the Tar Heels. I just think we are getting exceptional value with the Golden Eagles, who are just 2-6 in their last 8 games. What I like with Marquette is they are coming off one of their best games, beating Butler 73-57 last Wednesday and will be chomping at the bit having had a full week off. 

As for the Tar Heels, we are seeing them way overvalued in this game after their 99-54 thrashing of Louisville on Saturday. Thing to keep in mind is that was an awful spot for the Cardinals playing their first game in nearly 20 days. 

I also don't love the spot for UNC with a massive home game on deck against ACC front-runner Florida State. Not saying the Tar Heels won't win, but I think they are sloppy enough to let Marquette hand around and keep it within the number. Give me the Golden Eagles +9.5! 

40* KANSAS/TEXAS NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (Texas -2.5) 

I like the value here with the Longhorns as a 2.5-point home favorite against the Jayhawks. Texas has to be chomping at the bit here to get back on the floor after blowing a 19-point 2nd half lead in Saturday's 82-84 loss at home to West Virginia. 

I also think we are getting value here because of the fact that Kansas comes in having won 5 straight with the most recent being a big 67-61 win at home over Texas Tech. Thing is the only two games on the road during this 5-game winning streak were at ISU and K-State, the two worst teams in the Big 12. Prior to those 2 road wins, Kansas had dropped 5 straight away from home in Big 12 play. Jayhawks also lost 59-84 at home to Texas earlier this season, so we know the Longhorns matchup well here. Give me Texas -2.5! 

50* OLE MISS/MISSOURI NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Missouri -3) 

I love the value here with Missouri as a mere 3-point home favorite against Ole Miss. Missouri got back big man Jeremiah Tilmon after he had missed the last two and it resulted in an easy 93-78 win at South Carolina as a mere 4-point favorite. I think the books are still undervaluing the Tigers here at home against the Rebels. 

Part of the reason for the value here is the fact that Ole Miss beat Missouri 80-59 at home recently on Feb. 10th. What gets overlooked in that outcome is the fact that the Tigers were in a huge letdown spot coming off two hard fought wins at home over Kentucky (75-70) and Alabama (68-65). There will be no overlooking the Rebels in the rematch at home. Give me Missouri -3! 

40* 76ERS/RAPTORS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (76ers -1.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the 76ers as a mere 1.5-point road favorite against the Raptors. I know Toronto has been playing well here of late, having won 4 straight and covered in 9 of their last 12. Raptors also just beat Philly at home 110-103 on Sunday as a 3-point dog. 

I just think it's going to be really tough here for Toronto to beat this 76ers team in back-to-back games. One thing to keep in mind with that recent meeting is Philadelphia was right there with a chance to win despite shooting a miserable 38.8% from the field and allowing the Raptors to shoot 49.4%. 76ers get their revenge. Give me Philadelphia -1.5! 

40* KINGS/NETS NBA TOTAL STEAMROLLER (Over 242)

We have lost with the OVER in each of the Nets last two games against the Lakers and Clippers and looking back it probably wasn't the best move to take the OVER in those two games given just how badly the Nets wanted to beat those two teams. We are still way in the profit with the OVER in Brooklyn games this season and will take another shot with the OVER here against the Kings. 

I got a good feeling that the Nets are going to revert right back to their sluggish defensive ways now that they are facing a bad team in the Kings. You also have to factor in that these two teams just played roughly a week ago and combined for 261 points in a 136-125 Brooklyn win. I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a very similar score in the rematch. Give me the OVER 242! 

50* WARRIORS/KNICKS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Warriors -2.5)

I absolutely love this spot and price with Golden State as a mere 2.5-point road favorite against the Knicks. Warriors are going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column after giving away their last two games at Orlando and Charlotte. 

I also think there's some value here because of how well New York has been fairing of late. Knicks are 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games. Thing is a lot of these wins have come against bad teams. I think they also benefit a lot from teams not showing up with their "A" game against them. 

The Warriors will be ready for this one and could be getting a huge boost to their rotation. After playing several games now without a traditional center, both Kevin Looney and James Wiseman could be returning for this game. Both practiced in full, so while they are questionable, it seems likely both will suit up. Either way, I like the Warriors to get the win and cover here. Give me Golden State -2.5! 

40* FLORIDA/AUBURN NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Auburn -1) 

I like the value here with Auburn as a mere 1-point home favorite against Florida. It's been a rough go here of late for the Tigers, who have lost 5 of their last 6, but 3 of those defeats could have easily went the other way. 

I just think their ability to put up a big number here offensively will propel them to a win. Auburn is averaging 81.3 ppg at home and will be facing a Florida defense that gives up 76.8 ppg on the road. The Tigers are also much better defensively at home than on the road and will be facing a Gators team that is shooting just 44% as a team in their last 5. Give me Auburn -1! 

40* NOTRE DAME/LOUISVILLE NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Louisville -4) 

I'm willing to take a shot here with Louisville as a mere 4-point home favorite against Notre Dame. We played against the Cardinals at UNC on Saturday and won easily, as the Tar Heels cruised to a 99-54 win. 

I just hated that spot for Louisville playing on the road against a red-hot Tar Heels team after not having played a game in almost 20 days. I expect a much better showing out of the Cardinals here at home, where they are 8-1 on the season. It's also not a great spot here for Notre Dame, who is off a loss at Syracuse on Saturday and back on the road after just 2 days off. 

Cardinals have really responded well to an ugly loss, as they are a perfect 6-0 ATS last 2 seasons off a loss by 10 or more. Give me Louisville -4! 

50* HORNETS/JAZZ NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 229) 

I love the OVER 229 in today's game between the Jazz and Hornets. These two teams played earlier this month (Feb. 5) and combined for a ridiculous 259 points as the Jazz won 138-121 on the road. Now I'm not expecting them to approach to 260 again, but I don't think getting to 230 is asking a lot. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Utah score 130 on their own in this one. 

The big key here being how good a 3-point shooting team Utah is and how bad the Hornets are at defending it. Jazz are shooting 39% and averaging 16 made 3-pointers on the season. Charlotte is allowing opponents to shoot 40% from deep with an average of 16 made 3-pointers on the road. 

The other thing here is because the Jazz figure to have such an easy time scoring, are fresh off two grueling games against the Clippers and have a big home game on deck against LeBron and the Lakers, I don't see them really investing a lot of energy on defense in this one. Give me the OVER 229! 

40* GRIZZLIES/MAVS NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 231.5) 

I will take my chances here with the OVER 231.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Mavs and Grizzlies. Dallas might not be on the same level as the Nets in terms of an OVER team, but they aren't far off. Mavericks are exceptional on the offensive side of the ball and really have no choice but to try and outscore their opponents with how much they struggle defensively. 

The OVER has cashed in each of the last 7 games for the Mavs and 12 of their last 15 overall. Every game during this 7 game OVER streak has seen at least 235 combined points. This play becomes even easier to make when you look at how Memphis has been playing. Grizzlies consistently have been in high-scoring games as they too are clicking offensively and struggling defensively. OVER is 7-1 in their last 8 and 10-2-1 in their last 13. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

40* SYRACUSE/DUKE NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Duke -5) 

I will gladly lay the 5-points at home with Duke against Syracuse. I've mentioned this quite a bit, the Orange are simply a team that you need to look to back at home and fade on the road. It's why I unloaded on Syracuse with a 50* Top Play as a small home favorite against ND on Saturday (won 75-67) and will now instantly fade them on the road against the Blue Devils. Syracuse is 11-1 at home compared to just 2-5 on the road. The offense takes a dip on the road as expected, but the defense really regressess. 

Duke is also a team I want to be on right now. Blue Devils have won and covered 3 straight and are a team on a mission as they try to finish strong and make a case for a NCAA Tournament bid. Duke has got their offense going with 5 straight games shooting 50% or better from the field. I just don't see Syracuse's defense being able to hold up. Give me the Blue Devils -5! 

40* NETS/CLIPPERS NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 237) 

We didn't get there with the OVER in Brooklyn's last game against the Lakers, but I'm confident we will see a shootout here in LA against the Clippers. I think both of these teams are going to have a hard time bringing their "A" game on the defensive side of the ball. The Nets just played as good a defense as they could in their last game against LeBron and the Lakers. Same thing for the Clippers, who laid it all on the line in their revenge game against Utah. 

With Leonard and George back in the mix for the Clippers, they should really score at will against this Nets defense. Same thing for Brooklyn's offense with Harden and Irving. I got both teams hitting 120 in this one. Play the OVER 237! 

40* 76ERS/RAPTORS NBA SHARP STAKE (76ers -2.5) 

I will gladly lay the 2.5-points on the road with the 76ers as they visit the Raptors on Sunday. When Philadelphia has had their full complement of players this season, they have been extremely tough to beat. While the Nets may have overtaken Philly as the team to beat in the East, this is still an extremely talented team. 

Toronto has been playing better here of late, but are unlikely to have one of the best players in Kyle Lowry. I just think that's a big loss to overcome in this matchup. We saw the Raptors only score 86 points in their last game against the Wolves without him. I know this team just swept the Bucks in a mini 2 game series at Milwaukee, but I think it has them a bit overvalued in this spot. Give me the 76ers -2.5! 

50* PISTONS/MAGIC NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Magic -1.5) 

I can't help myself here with the Magic as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Pistons. Orlando has won 3 of their last 4 and covered 4 of their last 5. It's no coincidence their recent strong play has coincided with them getting back a few guys from injury. 

I just don't think the number here is near enough with what the Pistons are working with right now. Detroit won't have Delon Wright for this game and are sitting one of their best players in Blake Griffin to be traded. It's a real struggle for this Pistons team to score and it's why this team is a mere 2-13 SU in road games this year. Give me the Magic -1.5! 

40* PENN ST/IOWA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Penn St +11.5) 

I think there's some pretty good value here with the Nittany Lions as a double-digit road dog against the Hawkeyes. Iowa comes in having won and covered 3 straight and I just feel it has them laying a few too many points in a really tough spot. 

The Hawkeyes are fresh off a huge 77-62 road win at Wisconsin on Thursday and will have a really tough time here not looking ahead to their next game against Big Ten leader Michigan. Not saying they won't win at home here, but Penn State is not going to go down without a fight and if they can hit shots they will be in this thing right down to the wire. Give me the Nittany Lions +11.5! 

50* ST. BONAVENTURE/DAVIDSON *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (St Bonaventure -5) 

I think we are getting a great price here to back the Bonnies as a mere 5-point home favorite against Davidson. Good spot to jump on St Bonaventure, who will be motivated here after losing last time out at VCU, especially given they haven't got a chance to play in 8 days. Bonnies are a perfect 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this season. They have also won every game at home in A-10 play by at least 13 points, including a 70-54 win over VCU as a mere 3-point favorite.

Davidson comes in having won 5 in a row, but their only game since Jan 24th is a cupcake game against a non-DI school in Southern Virginia, which they won 101-51. This basically the first real test the Wildcats will have had in almost a month and it's on the road against one of the best teams in the conference. Give me St Bonaventure -5! 

40* KINGS/BULLS NBA NO DOUBT BLOWOUT (Kings -2) 

I have to take a shot here with Sacramento. The Kings come in having lost 5 straight, all at home, and yet are laying points on the road against the Bulls? This line makes absolutely no sense. The betting public is going to be all over Chicago. There's no choice here but to trust the oddsmakers and take the Kings. 

Sacramento is definitely going to be motivated to get back in the win column, but their biggest advantage in this game is rest. Kings were off yesterday and will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. Bulls on the other hand are playing on no rest after last night's prime time matchup with the 76ers on ESPN. Give me Sacramento -2! 

40* HEAT/LAKERS NBA ATS NO-BRAINER (Heat +3) 

I will take my chances here with the Heat as a small 3-point road dog against the Lakers. The betting public can't help themselves when it comes to betting LA, but this is not the time to be backing the Lakers. They are without Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder right now. The got LeBron, but that offense looked a bit lost in their last game against an awful Brooklyn team. 

The Nets didn't care who was suiting up for LA, they wanted to send a message to the defending champs. It's going to be the same thing for Miami, who as even more incentive to want to win here after losing the Lakers in the Finals last year. Give me the Kings +3! 

40* LOUISVILLE/N CAROLINA NCAAB STEAMROLLER (North Carolina -5.5) 

I was ready to lay the short number at home with Louisville on Wednesday against Syracuse, but that game got postponed because of more Covid problems for the Cardinals. It's unclear who will be available for Louisville in this one and I just feel the value is with the Tar Heels at home. 

North Carolina has been playing much better after a sluggish start to the year. Tar Heels are 8-3 since starting out 5-4. They are also a perfect 7-0 on their home floor this season. Louisville is just 3-3 on the road and are scoring just 64.5 ppg away from home. UNC averages 78.1 ppg at home. I don't see the Cardinals keeping up in this one. Give me UNC -5.5! 

40* PURDUE/NEBRASKA NCAAB ATS SLAUGHTER (Nebraska +7) 

I'm willing to take a shot here with Nebraska as a 7-point home dog against Purdue. The Cornhuskers are just 1-11 in Big Ten play and are easily considered the worst team in the league. Thing is they have been playing much better here of late. Nebraska is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and the one game they didn't cover as a 10-point dog at Maryland they should have, as they completely fell apart in the final minutes of that game allowing the Terps to go on a late 13-2 run. 

Thing is, Nebraska is considered to be such a bad team that even though their recent play suggests this is a team to back, the betting public just can't do it. I not only think they can cover the big number against the Boilermakers, I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won this game outright. Give me the Cornhuskers +7! 

40* AUBURN/LSU NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (LSU -4) 

I will gladly lay the 4-points at home with LSU as they host Auburn. The Tigers have won 2 straight since dropping 4 of 5 and are fresh off a huge 78-65 home win over Tennessee. The good thing is that big upset win came last Saturday, so there's no concern here with a letdown. 

While LSU is surging, Auburn has really fallen off of late. The Tigers are just 1-4 in their last 5 games and have played just 1 game in the last 10 days. Not to mention the only win during this poor run is a mere 6-point win over bottom-feeder Vanderbilt. Auburn is 2-10 ATS last 12 on the road after a game where they failed to cover and 1-9 ATS last 10 on the road after an upset loss as a road favorite. Give me LSU -4!

40* MISSOURI/S CAROLINA NCAAB SHARP STAKE (South Carolina +3.5) 

I'll take a shot here with South Carolina as a home dog against the Tigers. This line screams take the Gamecocks. Everyone is going to be on a ranked Missouri team here against a South Carolina team that has lost 4 straight, including each of their last 3 at home. 

Thing is the Tigers aren't exactly in prime form right now. Missouri has dropped their last 3 games and are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7. It's a great spot here to back the Gamecocks off that ugly 20-point loss to Tennessee (73-93) on Wednesday. South Carolina is 11-2 ATS last 13 off a conference loss by 10 or more and 6-0 ATS last 6 after giving up 90 or more in their last game. Give me the Gamecocks +3.5! 

50* NOTRE DAME/SYRACUSE NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Syracuse -2.5) 

I love the Orange as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against Notre Dame today. Syracuse is just one of those teams you want to back at home and look to fade on the road. The Orange are 10-1 at the Carrier Dome, compared to 2-5 on the road. I also like that we have a very fresh and motivated Syracuse team in this one, as they haven't played in a week after Wednesday's game against Louisville was postponed. 

Also, I feel the value here is stemming from the fact that the Irish enter this game having won 2 straight and 6 of 8 overall. I just feel their recent run is more a result of the schedule being easy than it is this team is any good. Give me Syracuse -2.5! 

40* PISTONS/GRIZZLIES NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 220.5) 

I will gladly take my chances here with the OVER 220.5 in tonight's NBA game between the Pistons and Grizzlies. Memphis is just one of those teams that you almost have to take the OVER blindly right now. The OVER has cashed in 6 straight and is 9-1-1 in the Grizzlies' last 11 games. The average combined score in Memphis' last 5 games is 238 and all we need here is 221. 

I think the only reason the total here isn't more is because the Pistons aren't a great offensive team, but they are going to score against this Memphis defense. Grizzlies have allowed 7 of their last 9 opponents to shoot 50% or better and given up 110 or more in 9 straight. Give me the OVER 220.5! 

40* SUNS/PELICANS NBA TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 231)

I got no problem taking a shot with the OVER 231 in tonight's matchup between the Suns and Pelicans. The OVER has cashed in each of New Orleans' last 6 games. The Pelicans have scored 124 or more in 4 of their last 6 and at least 110 in 9 straight and 14 of their last 15. Hard to see them not scoring 120+ in this one, as the Suns are slipping on defense right now, having allowed 4 of their last 5 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. 

Thing is the Pelicans have to score a lot because they are not a good defensive team. New Orleans is giving up 114.5 ppg on 47% shooting on the season and in their last 5 games are allowing 126.8 ppg on 54% shooting. That defense will have to work tonight without big man Steven Adams, so don't expect this to be the game they turn it around. Give me the OVER 231! 

50* BULLS/76ERS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 230.5)

I really like the OVER 230.5 in tonight's game between the Bulls and 76ers. The OVER had cashed in 3 straight games for Chicago before Wednesday's low-scoring game with Detroit, where both teams had an awful quarter that kept it UNDER. With the way Chicago can score and their limitations on defense, this is team that should be in a lot of high-scoring games. 

I definitely think that's the case here. The 76ers are really clicking on offense. Philadelphia has scored at least 111 points in 6 straight and 9 of 10 overall. They also have allowed 110 or more in 8 of their last 9. With the uptempo style the Bulls like to play and their lack of defense, I could see this flying past the number here. Give me the OVER 230.5! 

40* NETS/LAKERS NBA TOTAL ANNIHILATOR (Over 235.5)

We are back at it again with another OVER in a game involving the Nets. After flying past their total of 226.5 in their last game at Phoenix (won 128-124) the OVER is now 21-3 in the Nets last 24 games. 

While Durant is out for Brooklyn, they still figure to score at will in this game with the duo of Kyrie Irving and James Harden. As for the Lakers, they won't have AD. I think his loss hurts them a lot more defensively in this matchup. Offensively the Lakers should be just fine here, as Brooklyn has no one that can defend James. I think both teams have a very good shot at getting to 120 in this game. Give me the OVER 235.5! 

40* RUTGERS/MICHIGAN NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (Rutgers +9)

I'm willing to take a shot here with the Scarlet Knights at +9 on the road against Michigan. I think we saw the books discount the Wolverines a little bit in their last game against Wisconsin, which was their first game back after more than 3 weeks off. While it took a huge 2nd half comeback, the betting public is only concerned about the final result, which ended in a 67-59 win. 

I think it has them a bit overvalued here at home now against Rutgers, one of the hottest teams in the league. Scarlet Knights are 5-1 in their last 6 games. They also desperately need this game to really help out their NCAA Tournament resume. 

As for Michigan, they are sitting pretty right now. I think coming off that big comeback win over Wisconsin and a massive game on deck against No. 4 Ohio State, who also is their biggest rival, makes this a perfect play against spot. Give me Rutgers +9! 

50* UTAH/OREGON ST NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Oregon State +2.5) 

I love the value here with Oregon State as a home dog against the Utes. This is a perfect buy low spot on the Beavers, who come in having lost 3 straight. Thing is, those 3 losses all came on the road. The first two were against two of the best teams in the Pac-12 in Colorado and Arizona. The other was a mere 2-point loss at Arizona State on just 2 days of rest. 

Prior to this stretch the Beavers had won 5 of 7 and the only 2 losses during this stretch were road games at USC and UCLA. Oregon State has won 7 of their last 9 at home and I just don't think they should be a dog here. Utah has won 3 of 4, but just lost at Stanford 66-73. This will also be the Utes 3rd straight road game and 6th out of their last 7 away from home. 

Utah is also dealing with some key injuries right now. The Utes recently lost big man Mikael Jantunen and one of their top guards, Rylan Jones, is questionable with a arm injury that has kept him out of their last two games. Give me Oregon State +2.5! 

40* OHIO ST/PENN ST NCAAB SHARP STAKE (Penn State +4.5) 

I will take my chances with the Nittany Lions as a 4.5-point home dog against the Buckeyes. I just feel like this is a great spot to back Penn State, who is way undervalued after just losing at home to Nebraska as a double-digit favorite in their last game.

The Nittany Lions had won their 4 previous home games before that shocking loss and it's almost like they took the Cornhuskers lightly. They won't take No. 4 ranked Ohio State lightly. A team they know they can hang with, as they only lost by 4 on the road to the Buckeyes earlier this season. 

Another huge factor here is the spot for Ohio State. This could be a really tough game for them to bring their "A" game. Buckeyes come in having won 6 straight and just crushed Indiana by 19 in their last game. Easy for them to not give their full attention to a struggling Penn State team with a massive game on deck Sunday at home against Michigan. Give me the Nittany Lions +4.5! 

40* RAPTORS/BUCKS NBA ATS SLAUGHTER (Bucks -5.5) 

I will gladly lay the 5.5-points at home with Milwaukee against the Raptors. This feels like the ultimate time to buy low on the Bucks, who have dropped 4 straight and the most recent loss was a 113-124 home loss to the same Toronto team on Tuesday. So not only do we have one of the best teams in the league extremely motivated to get back in the win column, but they are playing with some serious revenge. 

Toronto could also be down one of their best players with Kyle Lowry questionable to play after leaving the game on Tuesday with an ankle injury. Bucks are 32-16 ATS last 48 off an upset loss as a favorite and 15-3 ATS last 18 when off loss by 10 or more as a favorite. Give me Milwaukee -5.5! 

40* MINNESOTA/INDIANA NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Indiana -4.5)

I'm going to take the Indiana Hoosiers -4.5 at home against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. This is just too good a price for me to pass up with Indiana. To say the Gophers have been awful on the road this year would be putting it nicely. Minnesota has played 7 road games and lost all 7. Everyone of those coming in Big Ten play. 

It's not just the inability for the Gophers to win on the road, they struggle to simply keep games close. Of those 7 road losses, 6 have come by double-digits. A big reason for that is their offense can't score. Minnesota averages a respectable 75 ppg on the season, but only 63.6 ppg on the road. 

Gophers are also the worst 3-point shooting team in the Big Ten, which plays right into the strength of this Indiana defense. The one thing that Minnesota's offense does well is rack up offensive rebounds. They are No. 2 in the Big Ten in that department. That figures to be negated some here, as Indiana is 4th best in the Big Ten at keeping opponents off the offensive glass. 

It's not just the offense that goes missing for the Gophers away from home. They are giving up a staggering 80.0 ppg on the road. Not to mention only Iowa and Northwestern have a worse defensive efficiency in the Big Ten. Look for the Hoosiers to get a lot of easy looks and rack up a big edge at the free throw line. Indiana is No. 1 in the Big Ten in free throw rate and Minnesota is No. 12 in the conference in terms of sending opponents to the free throw line. I just don't think 4.5 is enough, as I would make this closer to 6-7 point spread. Give me the Hoosiers -4.5! 

50* PISTONS/BULLS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 220)

I love the value here with the OVER 220 in Wednesday's game between the Bulls and Pistons. This is a late addition to the slate, as the league threw this game together last minute after both teams had their original schedule opponents unavailable to play. 

I believe it's going to lead to a more high-scoring game than what me night normally see between these two division rivals. Detroit went from suppose to playing the Spurs at home last night and the Mavs in Dallas tonight to traveling to Chicago. I just don't see them being locked in, especially on the defensive side of the ball. 

Chicago is scoring 114.8 ppg over their last 5 games and really matchup well here. Bulls are a great 3-point shooting team, hitting 38.3% as a team and will be facing a Detroit defense that is allowing opponents to shoot 39% from deep. 

As for the Bulls defense, it's one of the worst in the league. Chicago is giving up 116.0 ppg on 48% shooting. Pistons aren't known for their offense and are only averaging 108.9 ppg on the season, but are averaging 115.4 ppg in their last 5. A stretch that has seen them eclipse 120 on 3 different occasions. If either team hits 120 (both are more than capable) this should fly past the mark. Give me the OVER 220! 

40* NETS/SUNS NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 231.5)

If you have been following me of late, you shouldn't be the least bit surprised that I'm taking the OVER 231.5 in Tuesday's game between the Suns and Nets. At this point, it's going to take quite a bit for me to get off the OVER bandwagon in Brooklyn games. The OVER has cashed in 20 of the Nets last 23 games. To no surprise, given how good Brooklyn is offensively and how bad they are defensively. 

I don't have many concerns with the Nets offense, as long as they got at least 2 of their big 3 in action. As for their defense, I think they could be in for a long night here against a red-hot Suns team, especially given Brooklyn is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and have massive road games against the Lakers and Clippers looming. I think at least one of these teams will hit 130 points and could see both eclipsing 120. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

40* PELICANS/GRIZZLIES NBA TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 231.5)

I will gladly take my chances here with the OVER 231.5 between the Pelicans and Grizzlies. You will be hard pressed to find two teams playing worse on the defensive side of the ball going into a matchup than what we have here. 

In the Pelicans last 3 games they have allowed 129 to the Bulls, 143 to the Mavs and 123 to the Pistons. All 3 of those teams shot at least 54% from the field and all 3 games saw at least 235 points. Note that that while the defense has been sloppy, New Orleans is playing great offensively, averaging 121.2 ppg in their last 5. They have scored 109 or more in 13 straight games. 

As for Grizzlies, they have allowed 5 straight opponents and 6 of their last 7 to shoot 50% or better from the field. Memphis has allowed 110 or more points in 7 straight games. Give me the OVER 231.5! 

40* NUGGETS/CELTICS NBA SHARP STAKE (Celtics -2.5) 

I think this is the perfect spot to back the Celtics as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Nuggets on Tuesday. Boston couldn't look much worse here of late, as they have lost 4 of 5 with the last two being ugly losses to the Pistons as a 7-point home favorite and the Wizards as a 7-point road favorite. 

I just think enough is enough with this poor play and we are going to see the Celtics come out with one of their best showings of the season tonight. On the flip side of this, I love fading the Nuggets here. Denver is in a big letdown spot after their big home win over the Lakers on Sunday. On top of that, this is a banged up Nuggets team, who will be without Garry Harris, Will Barton and Paul Millsap. Monte Morris is also questionable. If Morris can't play they got absolutely nothing at the guard position outside of Murray. Give me the Celtics -2.5! 

40* NEBRASKA/MARYLAND NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Maryland -10) 

I will take another shot at fading the Cornhuskers on the road. I played on Penn State -11 at home against Nebraska on Sunday and was shocked to see the Cornhuskers not only cover but win the game 62-61. That's not going to keep me from taking Maryland here. 

Clearly getting that elusive win in Big Ten play was a big deal for Nebraska. They were winless at 0-9 in conference games going into that contest and had lost 26 conference games in a row dating back to last year. They also snapped a 24-game road losing streak. 

The fact that they got that win only makes me like the Terps more, as I see Nebraska having a big letdown in this game. Not only is this game less of a big deal since they got that elusive win, but it's also their 3rd game since playing an OT game against Illinois on Friday and their 4th game in the last week. Not to mention their second straight on the road with just 1 day of rest. Give me Maryland -10!  

50* MISSOURI/GEORGIA NCAAB *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 153.5) 

I love the OVER 153.5 in Tuesday's SEC showdown between Georgia and Missouri. The Bulldogs are exactly the kind of team you want to take an OVER with. Georgia is potent offensively and like to play at a face pace. The Bulldogs rank 5th in the SEC in tempo and are scoring 76.4 ppg in SEC play (79.6 ppg last 5 games). They also play little to no defense, giving up 84.8 ppg in conference play this season. 

Missouri like to play at a little slower tempo, but given how easy it figures to be on the offensive end for them, I look for them to speed it up a little tonight. In the Tigers last 12 games they have faced two teams who rank outside the Top 90 at KenPom in defensive efficiency. In those games they scored 88 against Auburn (No. 93) and 102 against TCU (No. 148). Georgia ranks 140th. 

It's also worth noting that Missouri will be without big man Jeremiah Tilmon, who is their best defensive presence inside. He missed their last game against Arkansas and the Tigers gave up 86 in a game that saw a combined score of 167. Give me the OVER 153.5! 

40* NETS/KINGS NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 241.5)

I feel like a broken record with the OVER in Nets games, but it's been one of the best bets in the NBA for well over a month now. The OVER is 19-3 in their last 22 games. It's also 6-0 in their last 6 and 7-1 on the season in games with a total of 238 or more. 

Even with Durant out for this game, I still feel great about the Nets and Kings eclipsing the mark here of 241.5. Brooklyn is still elite offensively with the duo of Irving and Harden and will be up against a Sacramento defense that has allowed 110 or more in 6 straight. 

As for the Kings offense, they have scored 110 or more in 7 straight and 9 of 10 overall. Brooklyn has allowed 115 or more in 13 of their last 15 with 11 of those teams scoring 120 or more. I think both teams hit 120 in this one. Give me the OVER 241.5! 

50* WIZARDS/ROCKETS NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 228.5)

I love the value here with the UNDER 228.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Rockets and Wizards. A lot of people just see the fact that Washington is giving up 119.1 ppg and just immediately look to play the OVER. 

Thing is the Wizards have had a bit of bad luck on the defensive end this year. They advanced stats suggest they should be allowing a lot less than they have been and those stats are starting to show as the UNDER has hit in 6 of the last 7 games for the Wizards. 

Not only is it their defense, but it's also their struggles offensively, as Washington has shot 42% or worse from the field in 6 of 7. Houston is in a major offensive funk right now as well, as they are really missing Christian Wood and will also be without Oladipo. Rockets have shot 43% or worse in 5 straight and are scoring just 98.8 ppg during this stretch. Give me the UNDER 228.5! 

40* VIRGINIA/FLORIDA ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Florida State -1) 

I'm confident we will cash a winner here with Florida State at basically a pick'em at home against Virginia. I wasn't surprised to see the Seminoles struggle a bit with Wake Forest on Saturday, as that was their first game in almost 2 weeks. The important thing is they found a way to win in OT and now will be 100% locked in for this game against the Cavaliers. 

Considering the fact that Florida State has won 23 straight conference home games, that's really enough for me to back the Seminoles at this price at home. I know Virginia is 5-1 in ACC road games, but those 5 wins have come against Notre Dame, BC, Clemson, NC State and Georgia Tech. All of those teams rank outside the Top 45 at KenPom, where FSU is ranked 20th. 

Seminoles have also gone 8-1 ATS last 9 at home against great defensive teams like Virginia, who are allowing 64 or fewer points/game. They are also 11-3 ATS last 14 at home vs a ACC opponent. Virginia is 3-11 ATS last 14 off a win by 10 or more and 1-8 ATS last 9 after allowing 55 or less. Give me Florida State -1! 

40* BLAZERS/MAVS NBA TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 235.5) 

I just think the OVER is a really strong play right now in games involving the Mavs. Dallas has finally gotten healthy and we are starting to see them regain that elite offensive form they showed last year. The Mavs are averaging 127.6 ppg on 49.4% shooting in their last 5. 

As good as they have been offensively, they have been just as bad, if not worse, on the defensive side. Dallas is giving up 129.6 ppg over this same 5-game stretch. Blazers are down two starters in Nurkic and McCollum, which I think has people thinking they aren't as strong offensively. Thing is, as long as they got Lillard running the point they are going to be an offensive juggernaut and they got plenty of other guys who can score. Blazers are scoring 117.0 ppg and giving up 115.9 ppg in road games this year. Play the OVER 235.5! 

50* SPURS/HORNETS NBA *BEST BET* TOP PLAY (Over 228.5) 

I love the OVER 228.5 in Sunday's matchup between San Antonio and Charlotte. I see these two teams easily getting to 230 points. That's basically been every game here of late for the Hornets. In Charlotte's last 5 games they are scoring 118.6 ppg and giving up 114.6 ppg. 

Spurs aren't exactly viewed as a great offensive team, but they are quietly averaging 110.7 ppg and that jumps up to 113.2 ppg on the road. In their last road game at Atlanta on Friday they scored 125 points on 53% shooting and were better than that as they had 110 points thru 3 quarters before throwing in the scrubs in the 4th. 

Spurs are also not a great defensive team. They are giving up 111.5 ppg on 47% shooting from the field and 39% from behind the 3-point line on the season. That poor 3-point defense figures to be a major problem against the Hornets. Charlotte is averaging 14 made 3's and shooting 38% from deep on the season. Give me the OVER 228.5! 

40* NEBRASKA/PENN ST NCAAB VEGAS INSIDER (Penn State -11) 

I will lay the 11-points with Penn State at home against Nebraska. I know the Cornhuskers are searching for that elusive Big Ten win, but this is a team that has simply not been competitive on the road in conference play. Nebraska is 0-4 in away games in the Big Ten, losing by 14 at Wisconsin, 36 at Ohio State, 10 at Michigan State and by 18 at Minnesota. They also lost by 24 at Creighton in their only non-conference away game. 

I just think the Cornhuskers are getting a little love after taking Illinois to OT at home in their last game. I actually think they it will be harder for them coming so close to beating a team like the Fighting Illini and coming up short. As for Penn State, they should be motivated here off a loss at Michigan State. Penn State has won 4 straight at home in Big Ten play and have to have this one. Give me the Nittany Lions -11!

50* UTAH/STANFORD PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Stanford -4.5) 

I backed Stanford as a slim home dog against Colorado on Thursday and it didn't go well with the Cardinal losing 51-69. It was just a bad game from the start for Stanford, who fell behind 10-0 to start the game and gave up 3 different 10-0 runs in the game. You got no chance of beating a team like the Buffaloes doing that. 

I just feel that performance has the Cardinal showing some really good value here as a slim 4.5-point home favorite against Utah. The Utes have won 3 straight, but are not a team to be trusted on the road. Utah is a mere 5-14 ATS on the road over the last 2 seasons, where they are losing by an average of 10 ppg. Stanford is 14-5 ATS last 19 as a home favorite or pick, 22-9 ATS last 31 at home after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 14-5 ATS last 19 at home off a home game. Give me the Cardinal -4.5! 

40* NETS/WARRIORS NBA STEAMROLLER (Over 242.5) 

I'm not about to give up with the OVER in Brooklyn games after one low-scoring game. The Nets are off a 104-94 win at home against the Pacers. That was the first time in 8 games they held a team under 120 points. I just think it was more of Indiana not being able to buy a shot in the 1st half. Pacers had 30 points at intermission and then scored 64 in the 2nd half. 

I don't see the Nets slowing down the Warriors, especially with how well Curry is playing right now. At the same time, Brooklyn could go off in this one. They will be getting back Durant and you know he's going to be excited for this one. Nets scored 60+ points on the Warriors in each half when these two met on opening night. Brooklyn has gotten even strong on offense since that game with the addition of Harden and worse defensively. Warriors are also a completely different offensive team now compared to then. Give me the OVER 242.5! 

40* OLE MISS/S CAROLINA VEGAS INSIDER (Ole Miss -1.5) 

I will gladly back the red-hot Rebels as a slim 1.5-point road favorite against South Carolina. Ole Miss comes in off about as impressive 3-game stretch as you will find in SEC play. The Rebels knocked off Tennessee at home, beat Auburn on the road and then absolutely destroyed Missouri 80-59 at home in their last game. 

South Carolina on the other hand has lost 6 of their last 8 games, including the last two at home. They lost by 16 at home to a very mediocre Mississippi State team last Saturday and then lost 78-81 at home to the top SEC team in Alabama. I just think they put everything they had into that game against the Crimson Tide and to lose they way they did, I just think it's going to be really hard for them to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to take out Ole Miss. Give me the Rebels -1.5! 

40* DUKE/NC STATE NCAAB ATS NO-BRAINER (Duke -3) 

I'm willing to take a shot here with Duke as a mere 3-point road favorite against NC State. I just feel like now is the time to buy low on the Blue Devils, who come in having lost 3 straight with the last two coming as home favorites against UNC and Notre Dame. 

It just feels like it's now or never for Duke to flip the switch and get this thing turned around. I don't know that there's a better team for them to do that against than the Wolfpack. NC State is just 4-7 in ACC play and have lost 7 of their last 9 with their only two wins coming against bottom feeders Wake Forest and Boston College. Give me the Blue Devils -3!