40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Miami -7) 

I think we are getting a great price here with the Hurricanes as a 7-point favorite at FAU. Good buy low spot on Miami after losing outright 89-95 as a 3-point favorite at home to UCF. That's a much improved UCF team that returned all 5 starters and the Knights couldn't miss in that game. 

FAU put up 92 points in their opener and lost. That tells you a lot about this team. They like to play fast, but also don't play any defense. They gave up 99 points on 53% shooting to a rebuilding New Mexico team. Unless FAU shoots lights out, the Hurricanes should win this game by double-digits easy. Give me Miami -7! 

40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Suns -3.5) 

I'll lay the 3.5 with the Suns on the road against the Timberwolves. Phoenix is one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Suns have won 8 in a row and covered each of their last 7. Each of their last 3 wins have come by double-digits. 

Minnesota is the exact opposite. Timberwolves are just 1-7 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games. Of the 7 losses during this stretch, 5 have come by double-digits. 

The big knock on the Suns in this game, is the fact that they will be playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road after yesterday's 115-89 win at Houston. With that being such an easy win and guys didn't have to play big minutes, I don't think it takes from their performance tonight. 

This is also far from an ideal spot for the Timberwolves, who could be dealing with some jet lag after playing 4 straight on the road, with the last 3 of those being played in California (Warriors, Lakers, Clippers). They got yesterday off, but will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the Suns -3.5! 

40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Buffalo PK)

I think we are getting some big time value here with the Bulls as a pick'em against the Mean Green. I really like this Buffalo team this year. The Bulls got multiple guys who can score the ball and we saw that in full display in their 76-88 loss in a cover at Michigan to open the season. 

North Texas was a great story last year, winning 4 games in 4 days to win the C-USA tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, where they went on to upset Purdue in OT. This is just not the same team for the Mean Green, who lost their best player in Javion Hamlet (15.7 ppg), as well as two other double-figure scorers in James Reese (10.9 ppg) and Zachary Simmons (10.0 ppg). Give me the Bulls PK! 

40* (NBA) Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Thunder +9.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with OKC as a near double-digit home dog against the Nets. Brooklyn is a huge public team and are being asked to way a few too many in this spot. The Nets are playing the final game of a 6-game road trip that has seen them go up and down the east coast. I think they will have a hard time getting up for this game, as they have to be counting down the hours until they get to get on that plane back home. Even more so with a massive home game looming Tuesday against the Warriors. 

The other big thing here is the Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game. OKC has won 4 straight. They have also covered each of their last 5 games and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8. They are playing exceptional defense during this stretch as they have held each of their last 6 opponents under 42% shooting from the field. Give me OKC +9.5! 

40* (CBB) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Drake -16) 

I'll lay the big number here with Drake at home against South Dakota. The Bulldogs won their season opener over Coe College 87-61. They shot 53% from the field and connected on 12 of 23 (52%) from behind the 3-point line. This Drake team is one of the best the MVC has to offer this year, as they returned all 5 starters from a team that received an at-large bid to last year's NCAA Tournament. 

South Dakota brings back 3 starters, but they lost their two best players from last year's team in Stanley Umude (21.6 ppg) and A.J. Plitzuweit (19.0 ppg). Umude transferred and Plitzuweit suffered a bad injury last February that will have him sidelined for this season as well. No other player averaged in double-figures last year for the Coyotes. 

South Dakota won their opener over Air Force 59-53, but failed to cover as 7-point favorites. That's a Falcons team that is picked by many to finish near the basement of the Mountain West. They shot just 36.2% from the field in that win. This has blowout written all over it. Give me Drake -16! 

50* (CBB) - Late Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Texas +7.5)

I've had this game circled for a while now. No way should this Texas team being catching this big of a number against any team in the country. Gonzaga is just way overpriced after what they did last year and coming into this season as the consensus top team. 

I get they brought in some great guys and have some good players back, but losing a player like Suggs and asking this team to be as good as they were last year, is asking a lot. As for the Longhorns, they made an absolute great hire with Chris Beard and few teams worked the transfer portal better than the Longhorns. I not only think Texas covers the big number, I like them to win outright. Give me the Longhorns +7.5! 

40* (CBB) - Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE (San Francisco -6.5) 

I will gladly take my chances here with the Dons as a 6.5-point home favorite against Davidson. These are two teams I got very different views on coming into the 2021-22 season. I really like this San Francisco team, which returns 4 starters from a talented team that just could never get the chemistry right last year. They probably don't have enough to dethrone Gonzaga in the WCC, but I think they could surprise and finish much higher than the middle of the pack, where most have them pegged. 

As for Davidson, I'm way down on the Wildcats this year and it's all centered around the loss of their best player in Kellan Grady. He was their top scorer last year at 17.1 ppg. He left in the transfer portal to go play at Kentucky. Replacing him will be a tall task and I just don't see the Wildcats having a good showing on the other side of the country in their first road game of the season. Give me San Francisco -6.5! 

40* (NBA) Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Cavs +2.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Cavs as a home dog against the Celtics on Saturday. Boston has been playing better of late, going 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games, but this is a really tough spot for the Celtics. 

Boston just put everything they had into last night's 122-113 OT win over the Bucks in a prime time game on ESPN. They had 4 different guys log over 40 minutes with all 5 starters playing 30+ minutes.  I think it will be tough here for them to bounce back on no rest (also 3rd game in 4 days) in the first of two straight games in Cleveland against the Cavs (two play again in Cleveland on Monday). 

Cavs have been one of the biggest money makers early on. They are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games after destroying the Pistons 98-78 as a mere 5-point home favorite on Friday. Books just haven't made the proper adjustments on this team and until they do, they are going to be a team to keep backing. Give me the Cavs +2.5! 

40* (CBB) - Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Cincinnati -9.5)

A lot of people are wanting to grab the near double-digits with Georgia and I just don't get it. The Bulldogs lost 4 of 5 starters from last year's team and figure to be at or near the bottom of the SEC standings when it's all said and done. 

I thought they made a good hire in Wes Miller to be their new head coach and they got a lot come back from a team that didn't live up to their potential last year. Cincinnati has a great backcourt and depth. They are also a really good defensive team. They beat Evansville 65-43 as a mere 11.5-point favorite in their opener. The Bearcats held the Purple Aces to just 25.9% shooting, forced them into 15 turnovers and were +7 on the boards. 

Cincinnati's Williams Arena is also very tough place to play for opposing teams. I'm not buying the Bulldogs can make a game of this. Give me the Bearcats -9.5! 

40* (NBA) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Warriors -5.5) 

I really like this Bulls team and have made a bunch of money backing them early on this season. With that said, I hate this spot for Chicago. The Bulls will be making their first trip out west to face the hottest team in the league in the Warriors, who are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS. 

Warriors could be without Draymond Green, who is questionable with a thigh bruise (think there's a decent chance he plays), but the Bulls will be without their big man in Nikola Vucevic due to Covid. I just don't think Chicago is going to be able to do enough offensively against a very good Golden State defense to keep this close enough to cover. Books just haven't adjusted enough on this Warriors team. Give me Golden State -5.5! 

40* (NBA) - Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Spurs +2.5) 

This Spurs team burned me in their last game with arguably their best showing of the season in a blowout win over the Kings. I think I might have been a little too low on this San Antonio team. I'll gladly take a shot here with the Spurs as a short home dog against an overrated Mavs team. 

Dallas has gotten way too much respect from the books to start the season and are just 3-7 ATS as a result. The other big thing here for me, is these two teams have already played twice and both times the Mavs were able to squeak out a win. Dallas won 104-99 at home and then 109-108 on the road. Spurs are going to want this game bad and I think they get the job done. Give me San Antonio +2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -4)

We took the Kings as a slim 1-point dog at the Spurs on Wednesday and got absolutely burned with San Antonio cruising to a 136-117 win. Not only did Sacramento not play with the effort needed to win on the road, the Spurs shot lights out in that game. 

Watching that game, I had a pretty good feeling I was going to be right back on the Kings against the Thunder tonight and I was actually expecting to lay a couple more than we are being asked to. This is a Kings team I have made some decent money on early and I fully expect them to bounce back with a big effort and easy cover tonight. Give me Sacramento -4! 

40* (CBB) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Iowa -19.5) 

I was mad at myself for not taking the Hawkeyes -20 against Longwood in their opener. Iowa went on to win and cover that game easy 106-73. Most of the starters barely had to play in the 2nd half they were so dominant early (led 56-29 at the half). 

I just think the Hawkeyes are way undervalued coming into this season, as everyone is down on them after not just losing the National Player of the Year in Garza, but also their second best player in Wieskamp. Both of which were taken in the NBA draft. 

Thing is, this is a deep and talented Iowa team that has more than enough talent to compete for a top spot in the Big 10. They have an emerging star in Keegan Murray and a veteran presence and outstanding 3-point shooter in Jordan Bohannon. They are also a much better defensive team and able to get out faster in transition without Garza. 

They take on a Kansas City team that just lost by 15 on the road to an awful Minnesota team that lost all 5 starters and are in the first year of a new head coach. It would take a really bad game for the Hawkeyes to not win this game by 20+ points. Give me Iowa -19.5! 

40* (CBB) No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (W Kentucky -2.5) 

I'm way down on this Gophers team and I'm not giving this Minnesota team any respect for covering a mere 6.5-point line at home against Kansas City. The same Kansas City team that is a 20-point dog to Iowa tonight. That result combined with the fact that WKU only beat Alabama State 79-74 as a 25.5-point favorite will have a lot of people left scratching their head at how the Hilltoppers can be favored here on a neutral site. 

Looking back I probably should have been on Alabama State in that game vs WKU. The Hornets had 4 of 5 starters back and are an extremely long and athletic team. Either way, it should serve as a great tuneup for WKU for this game and it also should have them 100% locked in after not playing up to their potential. 

Minnesota is all but a lock to be the worst team in the Big Ten this year. They didn't bring back a single starter from last year, are in the first year of a new head coach. Give me the Hilltoppers -2.5! 

40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Raptors +3) 

I think we are getting a good price here on the Raptors as a slim road dog against a depleted 76ers team. The value with Toronto stems from the fact that they will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back, while Philly had yesterday off. Raptors also haven't looked good of late, losing their last 3 games, including an ugly 88-104 setback at Boston last night. 

As tough as it is to play on no rest, I see this as a much worse spot for the 76ers, who we know are going to be without Joel Embiid and Matisse Thybulle. They could also be missing Tobias Harris and Seth Curry. Not to mention they still are playing without Ben Simmons. 

Siakam will be out for Toronto to rest after just recently coming back from injury. I think that's not necessarily a bad thing. Siakam is still shaking off some rust and it felt like his return kind of threw off the chemistry this team had going, as they had gone 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their previous 5 before the 3-game skid. Give me the Raptors +3! 

40* (CBB) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Sacred Heart +15.5) 

I will gladly take 15.5 with the Pioneers as they go on the road to face Providence. Both of these teams opened their season with a win on Tuesday, but only one of them covered. That was Sacred Heart, who went on the road and beat LaSalle 86-81 as a 7.5-point dog. The Friars failed to cover as 15-point favorites in a 80-73 victory against Fairfield. 

While I didn't play it, I wasn't surprised to see the Pioneers cash a winning ticket. They got back all 5 starters from last year. It's rare for Sacred Heart to not lose some guys to the transfer portal, as they have watched a lot of their top guys leave in previous offseasons. With that much experience back and a coach that always seems to get his team to exceed expectations, it's not out of the question they could make a run for the Northeast title. 

Note that the Fairfield team that just covered against Providence also had 5 starters back from last year and they are picked to finish middle of the pack in the MAAC. 

As for the Friars, they get back 4 starters, but they lost the engine that made their offense work in David Duke, who averaged 16.8 ppg and 4.8 apg. He was also their biggest 3-point threat. They also lost two other key rotation players in Greg Gantt and Jimmy Nichols. I just think this is a few too many. Give me Sacred Heart +15.5! 

50* (CBB) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNI -1.5) 

I love Northern Iowa at basically a pick'em at home against Vermont. Most will look to fade the Panthers after watching them just lost outright 58-62 as a 14.5-point home favorite to Nicholls State, but UNI couldn't have shot it any worse in their opener. The Panthers were a dreadful 15 of 50 (30%) from the field, going just 3 of 23 (13%) fromb ehind the 3-point line. 

I'm confident they will have a much better time shooting the ball, as this is a team that's talented enough to win the MVC this year. UNIT gets back all 5 starters, including their star guard AJ Green, who averaged 22.3 ppg before his season was ended just 3 games into last year. 

Vermont is one of the top teams in the America East and get back 4 starters, but this is a big step up in competition for the Catamounts and they did lose one of their top players to the transfer portal in Stef Smith. 

I also think there's an edge for UNI having already played a game, while Vermont is playing their first game. Give me the Panthers -1.5! 

40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Kings +1) 

Sacramento should not be a dog in this game. The Kings have one of the more misleading records right now. They are just 5-6, but this is more a result of the brutal schedule they were dealt to start the year. I actually think Sacramento is one of the more improved teams. 

The same can't be said for the Spurs. San Antonio is just 3-7 and there's nothing fluky about their record. The Spurs just aren't a very good team. Two of their three wins have come against arguably the worst team in the league in the Magic and the other was against a depleted Bucks team on the road. Prior to last night's win against a depleted 76ers team, Milwaukee had lost 5 of 6. Give me the Kings +1! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 227) 

I just can't help myself but to take the OVER 227 in tonight's NBA matchup between the Grizzlies and Hornets. While these two teams don't exactly fly up and down the court, we have two of the top offenses facing off against two of the worst defenses. 

Charlotte is 8th in offensive efficiency and Memphis isn't too far back at 12th. On the flip side, the Hornets are 29th (just barely ahead of the Pelicans) in defensive efficiency and Memphis is 28th. 

I just think with how bad these two teams are defensively it's going to lead to a little faster pace, as both offenses won't have to work hard to get an open look. As long as don't have one of these teams go ice cold, this should easily get into the 230s. Give me the OVER 227! 

40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bulls -3.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with Chicago as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Mavs. I just think this is a really good price to back the Bulls at home. Chicago put those two losses to the 76ers behind them with a 118-95 win over the Nets on Monday. They did so in fashion, outscoring Brooklyn 42-17 in the 4th quarter. 

The Bulls are now 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS. This is without question one of the most improved teams in the league and while the betting public is starting to take notice, I think the books have been a little slow to inflate the numbers on them, which is why they continue to show value. 

As for the Mavs, I just haven't been all that impressed. They too are off to a 7-3 SU start, but are just 3-6-1 ATS. Their largest margin of victory all season is just 10 points and that was against the Rockets at home. 

I really like Lonzo Ball being able to make it difficult for Doncic and if Luka is great, I have a hard time seeing Dallas keeping this close. Give me the Bulls -3.5! 

50* (CBB) - Opening Week PLAY OF THE MONTH (Rutgers -19.5)

I'm shocked the Scarlet Knights are only a 19.5-point favorite at home against the likes of Lehigh. I think it's a bit ridiculous that not only is Rutgers not in the Top 25 in the AP or coaches poll, they aren't even one of the 10+ teams that are getting votes. 

This has the looks of Steve Pikiell's best team yet and I think the lack of respect the Scarlet Knights are getting will have them extremely motivated to make a statement in their opener. Things could look a lot different for Rutgers if Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. had decided to leave early for the NBA, but both opted to return after testing the waters. 

They will be up against a Lehigh team that went just 4-10 last year playing a conference only slate in the Patriot League. So while they get back 4 starters, that doesn't mean a whole lot when matched up against a Power 5 program like Rutgers. Give me the Scarlet Knights -19.5! 

40* (CBB) Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Arizona -25) 

I got no problem laying the big number with Arizona at home against Northern Arizona. I thought the Wildcats made an outstanding hire by bringing in Gonzaga assistant Tommy Lloyd. I know there's some sanctions that they will have to overcome, but there's more than enough talent on hand, as the Wildcats bring back 4 of 5 starters. 

Last year, Arizona annihilated the Lumberjacks 96-53. This year's Northern Arizona team looks to be down a notch, as their top two players, Cameron Shelton and Luke Avdalovic both left via the transfer portal. Shelton averaged 19.2 ppg and Avdalovic averaged 10.8 (one of their top 3-pt shooters). Those two had 31 of the 53 points scored against Arizona last year. Give me the Wildcats -25! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -3) 

I will lay the 3-points at home with the Clippers, as they host the Blazers in the second game of Tuesday's TNT double-header. I just don't get why this Portland team is getting so much respect on the road. The Blazers are 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS away from home this season and are getting outscored on average 115.2 to 101.5 on the road. 

The Clippers got off to an ugly start, but seem to have figured it out. LA has won 4 straight to move to 5-4 (first time this year over .500). While we know this team will take it to another level once Kawhi comes back from injury, they are the more than good enough to cover this short number at home against a Blazers team that is not getting the production they need out of their star player in Damian Lillard. After ranking 3rd in the league last year at 28.8 ppg, Lillard is 35th at a mere 18.5 ppg. Give me the Clippers -3! 

40* (CBB) - Opening Night VEGAS INSIDER (New Mexico St -4.5) 

I will take my chances with the Aggies making a statement in the first game of the 2021-22 season. Last year was completely out of the norm for New Mexico State, as they failed to win either the WAC regular-season or conference tournament title since 2011. Even with the down year, head coach Chris Jans still has a 95-25 record in 4 years with the program. 

Jans knew he needed to improve the talent on this team to get them back where they are accustomed and he did just that. New Mexico State brought in a plethora of talented transfers from both the JUCO level and Power 5 programs. I just don't think people realize how talented this team is and we are getting a great price to back them at home. Give me the Aggies -4.5! 

50* (CBB) - Kansas/Mich St CHAMPIONS CLASSIC Winner (Michigan St +4.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with Tom Izzo and the Spartans as a decently priced dog against the Jayhawks in the first of Tuesday's Champions Classic double-header at Madison Square Garden. 

Last year was not the norm for Michigan State. While they did enough to make the NCAA Tournament for a 23rd straight time, they were just 15-13 overall and at 9-11 they had their first losing season in Big Ten play since the 1992-93 season. 

I really like the talent that Izzo has coming back, but what I really love is the addition of Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker, who gives them the true point guard they lacked last year after having such a stable at the position for years with Cassius Winston. Give me the Spartans +4.5! 

40* (NBA) - Big Money Fade UPSET SHOCKER (Hawks +3.5) 

A lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how are the Warriors such a small home favorite against a Hawks team that has lost 5 of 6 and failed to cover 6 of their last 7. The books just don't set bad lines on purpose and with how much the public is getting back involved with the Warriors after their 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS start, I got roll the dice with Atlanta in this one. 

One thing that is worth pointing out with the Warriors 8-1 start, is they haven't exactly played the toughest schedule. While they got wins over the Lakers and Clippers, both were by 7 or fewer and neither of those teams have looked good early. Their other 6 wins are against the Kings, Thunder (twice), Hornets, Pelicans and Rockets. 

This is also not a great scheduling spot for Golden State with them playing the second of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 nights. I could definitely see the Hawks being the more motivated team, as we should get a max effort here from Atlanta. Give me the Hawks +3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -1) 

I really like the Bulls as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is a massive public team with Durant and Harden, but while they are 7-3 SU they are just 5-5 ATS. They come in having won 5 straight, but those wins have come against the Pacers, Pistons (twice), Hawks and Raptors with 3 of the 5 at home. 

The other big thing here is rest. Brooklyn will be on no rest after yesterday's game at Toronto. While Brooklyn won the game relatively comfortably 116-103, they weren't able to spread out the minutes like you would like in the first of a back-to-back. They have 4 of their 5 starters log 32+ minutes. This is also the Nets 3rd road game in 4 nights. 

Bulls are on just 1 day of rest, but this will be just their second game in the last 5 days and they have had zero travel during this time. Chicago should come out here extremely motivated, not just to make a statement against one of the better teams, but to snap their 2-game skid (coming off two close losses in a home-and-home vs the 76ers). Give me the Bulls -1! 

40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Kings -1.5) 

I will gladly take my chances here with Sacramento as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Pacers. I've really been impressed with this Kings team to start the season. Sacramento is 5-4, but their 4 losses have come against playoff caliber teams. 

The books have been slow to adjust on the Kings and those backing them have made a killing of late. Sacramento has covered 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. This just doesn't feel like the sell high spot with this line. 

Indiana is another team I like, but this is not an ideal spot for the Pacers playing the 2nd game of a 4-game west coast trip. Indiana's defense just isn't good enough to win away from home against quality teams, as they are giving up 118.2 ppg on 47% shooting from the field and 42% shooting from deep away from home. Give me the Kings -1.5! 

40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Jazz +2.5) 

I really like the Jazz here in this spot. Miami has been one of the most impressive teams in the league and have quickly becoming a public betting favorite. The biggest thing here is the health of Miami point guard Kyle Lowry. 

The Heat are 6-2 and both losses have come with Lowry not playing the entire game. Lowry missed Miami's 91-102 loss at Indiana and he went out in the 3rd quarter of Thursday's 78-95 loss to the Celtics. The Heat just really struggle to get into any flow offensively without him on the floor. 

I know Utah might be without one of their best players as well, as Donovan Mitchell is questionable after missing Thursday's 116-98 win over the Hawks. The thing is, I think there's a much better chance that Mitchell plays, as it felt more precautionary than anything with Lowry not playing against Atlanta. Keep in mind, unlike Lowry, Mitchell came back and finished the game against the Kings after injuring his ankle in the 1st half. 

Even if he doesn't play, I still think Utah is the right side against a Heat without Lowry. Play the Jazz +2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings -1.5) 

I love the Kings as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Hornets on Friday. I think this Sacramento team is flying way under the radar right now. Kings are just 4-4, but those 4 losses have come against the Warriors and Jazz at home and the Mavs and Jazz on the road. They have covered 4 of their last 5 including a 112-99 win over New Orleans last time out as a mere 5-point favorite. 

Charlotte is a team that gets a lot of love because they can score a lot of points, but I'm not a big believer in this team and I certainly don't like the spot for the Hornets. Charlotte just started a 5-game road trip across the country on Wednesday at Golden State and after this game they go to LA for back-to-back games at the Staples Center vs the Clippers and Lakers on Sunday/Monday. 

Charlotte also comes in not shooting the ball well. They have shot 41% or worse from the field in 3 of their last 4 games. Give me the Kings -1.5! 

40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Cavs +5.5) 

I'll take my chances with Cleveland as a 5.5-point road dog against the Raptors. Even though the Cavs have been one of the biggest surprises early, going 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS, it's going to take a lot more before the betting public gets on board with this team, so to me they are still a great buy low candidate. 

As for the Raptors, I think this is a good sell high spot on them. Toronto is a team a lot of people were high on coming into the season and they look like they are living up to that hype going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5. I still have a lot of concerns with this team and this is not a great spot coming off a 3-game road trip and a massive lookahead with a home game against the Nets on deck Sunday. I not only think the Cavs can keep it within the number, but I give them a good shot here to win outright. Give me Cleveland +5.5! 

50* (NBA) - Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -1.5) 

I will gladly lay a mere 1.5-points on the road with Utah against an underwhelming Hawks team. Atlanta got off to a decent start, going 3-1 in their first 4 games, but two of those wins were against the Pistons and Hornets. The other was against a Mavs team that has also not looked good early on. Since that start they have lost 3 of 4, including a 108-117 setback last night at Brooklyn. 

I just think even with the slow start, Atlanta is a team that is still being a bit overvalued based on last year's deep playoff run that saw them get to the Eastern Conference Finals. 

On the flip side, I've liked what I've seen out of Utah to start the season. I did play against them as a 9-point favorite at home against the Kings last time out, but that was more of how underrated I think Sacramento is right now. I just don't think 1.5 is near enough for Atlanta. 

Utah's only loss on the season is a 99-107 loss at Chicago, which was a bit of a flat spot, being it was the first of a back-to-back with the defending champs on deck. Give me the Jazz -1.5! 

40* (NBA) Public Money ATS MASACRE (Pistons +6) 

A lot of people are going to look at this line and wonder how in the heck are the 76ers only a 6-point favorite against a Pistons team that is 1-6 and struggling to keep games close. They just lost 91-117 at Brooklyn and 89-117 at home to the Bucks in their last two games. 

We see a lot of crazy things in the NBA this early in the season and more times than not when a line stinks this bad, I'm going to side with the books and take the ugly dog. 

There is reason to like the Pistons. Philly is far from full strength right now. They are still waiting on Ben Simmons to figure things out and are also without two other starters in Tobias Harris and Danny Green. 76ers are also playing on the road with no rest after really playing hard in last nights big win over the Bulls. I think we see Philly lay a big egg here and it wouldn't shock me if Detroit won outright. Give me the Pistons +6! 

40* (NBA) - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT (Kings -5) 

I got no problem laying a mere 5-points at home with the Kings. We cashed on Sacramento as a 9-point dog in a 113-119 loss at Utah last night. I said it in my write up for that game that I thought this Kings team was way undervalued because of their schedule. Kings have played 5 of their first 7 on the road, with their only two at home coming against the Jazz and Grizzlies. Got to believe they will be motivated here for that first home win of the season. 

This is also an interesting scheduling spot. Both teams are playing on no rest (Pelicans played at Phoenix last night). New Orleans has lost both of their previous games on no rest. In one they scored just 89 points at Minnesota and the other they gave up 123 to the Knicks at home. I just think bad teams are more likely to struggle in a bad scheduling spot and this just doesn't feel like near enough points for the gap in talent. Give me the Kings -5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nuggets +1)

I love the Nuggets at basically a pick'em on the road against the Grizzlies. These two teams just played on Monday in Memphis, creating a true revenge spot with the same opponent in the same venue. Memphis won that game 106-97 in a great buy low spot on the Grizzlies after an ugly 103-129 home loss to the Heat. It was also a bad spot for Denver, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and second straight on the road. 

Denver should be a bit refreshed being able to stay in Memphis over their off day on Tuesday. They should also be highly motivated to beat a team they just lost to, especially with how they played offensively, scoring just 97 points. 

Hard to see this Memphis defense holding the Nuggets offense in check in back-to-back games. Defense is not a strength of this team. The Grizzlies are giving up 114.1 ppg, allowing 47.6% shooting and are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. Give me the Nuggets +1! 

40* (NBA) - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Bulls +2) 

I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a slim 2-point dog on the road against the 76ers. Chicago was expected to be much improved this season, but no one thought they were going to be this good and I think it's taken some time for the market to catch up. Bulls are 6-1 SU and 6-1 ATS. 

As for the 76ers, I think the market has been inflated on them, even though they are 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS to start the year. Philly has been playing behind the 8-ball with Ben Simmons not playing and now they got two big injuries to add their problem. Danny Green is out with a hamstring injury and Tobias Harris is out with Covid. Harris is the 76ers second leading scorer at 19.8 ppg (also averages 9 rpg and 4.2 apg), while Green is one of their top 3-point shooters. Give me the Bulls +2! 

40* (NBA) - Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Pacers -1) 

I really like the value with the Pacers as a slim 1-point home favorite against the Knicks. New York's gotten off to a fine start and I've made some money on this team early, but I think they are being way overvalued here on the road against a Pacers team that is finally starting to get healthy. 

Indiana recently got back one of their best players in Caris LeVert, but while he was returning they had to deal with the loss of Malcolm Brogdon, who was really carrying this team early. Brogdon is expected to return from his hamstring injury, making the Pacers that much better and deeper. I just think it's the time to buy low on Indiana right now. Give me the Pacers -1! 

40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Kings +9) 

I'm like getting 9-points with the Kings on the road against the Jazz. This just feels like a few too many for Utah to be laying. While Sacramento is off to a mere 3-3 start this season, this looks like a much better version of the Kings than what we saw a year ago. 

The biggest thing that gets overlooked with the Kings .500 start, is the schedule that they have had to endure. They have played road games against the Blazers, Suns, Pelicans and Mavs, while their only two home games have come against these Jazz and the Warriors. 

Utah did win the first meeting 110-101, which is the same margin as the number here, but keep in mind that the Kings had a 52-46 lead at the half and were only down 1 going into the 4th. 

You might be thinking that the Jazz should win by more with the game on their home court this time, but I just think there's also the same argument you could make for the Kings being motivated for revenge. 

I also don't love the spot here for the Jazz. Utah just finished up a 3-game midwest trip on Sunday and have to go right back on the road for another 3-game trip after this one is over. Give me the Kings +9! 

40* (NBA) - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER (Grizzlies -2)

I really like Memphis as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Nuggets. We played against the Nuggets as a small road dog against the Twolves on Saturday and took a tough loss in a 93-91 Denver win. Minnesota did us no favors, shooting just 38.9% from the field and turning it over 20 times. 

Even though it ended up being the wrong side, I think it was the right handicap, playing against the Nuggets in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. While Denver did have Sunday off, this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

We are also getting the exact same price betting against the Nuggets with a much better team in the Grizzlies. It just feels like to me we are getting a big overreaction on Memphis after that ugly 103-129 loss at home to the Heat on Saturday. Should get a really big effort here from the Grizzlies against a tired Nuggets team. Give me Memphis -2! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (UNDER 221.5) 

I really like the UNDER 221.5 in Monday's NBA matchup between the Hornets and Cavs. I have a really hard time seeing these two teams score into the 220's. 

The Cavs are an ideal UNDER team. They are awful offensively, don't like to play with much tempo (T-24th in pace) and are a top half of the league defensive team. UNDER has cashed in each of the Cavs' last 5 games. 

The reason the total is high, is the Hornets are an OVER team. They score 118.6 ppg and give up 115.3 ppg. 

Aside from Cleveland doing whatever they can to slow the pace down, I think we could see Charlotte play a little slower than what we would normally see. Hornets are going to be on no rest after hosting the Blazers yesterday and this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the UNDER 221.5! 

40* (NBA) - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER (Wolves -2) 

I will lay the short number with Minnesota at home against the Nuggets. I not only think this Timberwolves team is a lot better than people realize, but there's a pretty big scheduling advantage here for Minnesota. The Timberwolves will be playing this game on a full 2 days of rest. The Nuggets on the other hand will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after last night's showdown with the Mavs.

While it was a blowout, that was a primetime game on ESPN, so there's likely to be some emotional letdown here. You also can't overreact to that outcome with how bad the Mavs were. Dallas played no defense and shot 29.5% from the field. It's also not like we have seen Denver fail to bring it. Just a few games back they lost 87-99 at home to the Cavs as a 9.5-point favorite. 

Not only do the Timberwolves have a potent 1-2-3 scoring attack with Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell, but are playing much better on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota ranks 3rd in the league right now in defensive efficiency (last year they finished T-25th). Give me the Timberwolves -2!  

40* (NBA) - Smart Money ATS ANNIHILATOR (Grizzlies -2) 

Great price here with Memphis as a slim 2-point home favorite against the Heat. Even though the Grizzlies are off an impressive 104-101 win at Golden State as a 6-point dog, I think the public has really got on board with this Miami team and a lot of people watched them dismantle the Hornets 114-99 last night in the first game of the ESPN double-header. 

I just think it's created a great sell high spot on the Heat, playing on the road against a really good team and doing so on no rest. It's also worth pointing out that Miami has not shot the ball anywhere close to as good on the road as they have at home. Heat are scoring 119.3 ppg at home compared to 98.5 ppg on the road. They have shot close to 50% at home and 39.0% on the road. 

Another thing to note with Memphis and them being a little undervalued even though they are 3-2, is they have played 4 of their 5 games to start to the season on the road. Give me the Grizzlies -2! 

40* (NBA) Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (76ers -3) 

I really love the value here with Philly as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Hawks. The 76ers are definitely down a notch missing a player of Ben Simmons caliber, but there's still more than enough talent for this to be a top tier team in the Eastern Conference without them. They just aren't a title contender without him on the floor. With that said, I just think they should be a bigger favorite here at home. 

You also have to take into consideration that the Hawks aren't exactly living up to expectations to start the season. It just feels like to me that they are a bit overvalued after making the Eastern Conference Finals last year. 

A good note to go with that is the Hawks beat the 76ers in a grueling 7-game series to get to the Eastern Conference Finals, so you got to think this is one Philly will definitely be up for. 

I also think you have to really look at how the Hawks have played on the road. They are 1-2 away from home. They lost 95-101 at Cleveland as a 8-point favorite, 111-122 as a 3-point favorite at Washington and barely beat the Pelicans 102-99 as a 5-point favorite. 

This will also be Atlanta's 3rd road game in 4 nights, which I don't think people are factoring in near enough. Give me the Hawks -3! 

50* (NBA) - Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs +2) 

I really like Dallas as a slim 2-point road dog against the Nuggets on Friday. The big question mark here for a lot of people looking at this game is the health of Nikola Jokic for Denver. He's listed as questionable after suffering a knee injury in their last game vs the Jazz. He only played 15 minutes before getting hurt and did not return. There was no structural damage, which is why he's questionable, but he didn't practice Thursday and it would seem foolish for the Nuggets to put him out there for this game. 

I know the Nuggets didn't fold against a good Utah team after Jokic went down (lost 110-122), but I just don't think they got the talent to really be a good team without him on the floor, especially with Jamal Murray still sidelined. 

Mavs have won 3 straight since that ugly showing in their opener, where they lost 87-113 at Atlanta. Even if Porzingis doesn't play, I still think Dallas has the two best players in this game with Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson. Wouldn't be shocked if this line doesn't flip after it's official that Jokic is out. Give me the Mavs +2! 

40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Kings -2) 

It feels like I could be walking into a trap here, but I just can't pass up a play on Sacramento as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Pelicans, who are a shell of themselves to start the year with Zion Williamson sidelined. New Orleans is just 1-4 with their only win coming in the second leg of back-to-back games vs the Twolves, where Minnesota won the first meeting.

The Kings are just 2-2, but that's actually a pretty impressive record when you consider their schedule has been @ POR, vs UTAH, vs GS and @ PHO. They won both of those games on the road vs the Blazers and Suns. I also don't think people realize how good the Kings' Harrison Barnes has been playing. He's averaging a double-double with 26.8 ppg and 10.0 rpg. Give me the Kings -2! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 223.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER 223.5 in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Pacers visiting the Nets. It's hard to not like the Pacers a a big dog given what we have seen out of this Brooklyn team so far, but I just can't get there with Indiana with the injury to Malcolm Brogdon. 

The Pacers have already been without two starters to start the season in T.J. Warren and Caris LaVert, which I think makes losing Brogdon, by far one of their best players, that much bigger of a blow. Brogdon leads the team in scoring (23.4 ppg) and assists (7.0 apg) and is second in rebound (7.0 rpg). I just wonder if the Pacers will be able to get into any kind of rhythm offensively without him at the point. 

As for the Nets, they are playing no where close to what we thought we would see offensively. Some of that is not having Kyrie Irving, but it's also a lackluster group of role players and James Harden shooting bricks. Harden is averaging just 16.6 ppg on 35.9% shooting. No surprise the UNDER is 5-0 in their 5 games. Give me the UNDER 223.5! 

50* (NBA) - Knicks/Bulls MAX UNIT Top Play (Bulls -1) 

I love the Bulls at basically a pick'em at home against the Knicks. We knew Chicago was going to be an improved team with the moves they made in the offseason to bring in the likes of Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso to pair with the likes of Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. 

Despite not playing anywhere close to their potential offensively, the Bulls have managed to start out the season 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS. A big reason for that is their defense. Chicago is 2nd in the league behind only the Heat in team defensive efficiency. They are giving up just 97.5 ppg, while holding teams to 43.7% shooting from the field and 33.0% from behind the 3-point line. They are also only giving up an average of 16 free throws a game, so teams are having to work for everything they get. 

Now they have faced a pretty favorable schedule. Their 4 wins have come against the Pistons (2x), Pelicans and Raptors.

With that said, I see them extremely motivated here to show they are for real against a good Knicks team and there's no love between the Chicago and New York fan base. The energy inside the United Center tonight I believe is going to feel a lot like a playoff game. I think the books were right when they opened this game at Chicago -3. Give me the Bulls -1!  

40* (NBA) Late Night Total NO-BRAINER (Over 234) 

I will gladly take my chances with the OVER 234 in tonight's NBA game between the Blazers and Grizzlies. Portland had combined for at least 239 points in each of their first two games before laying a dud in a 86-116 loss at the Clippers on Monday. Memphis has scored at least 118 in all 3 of their games, with all 3 games going over and seeing a combined score of 134 or more. 

Portland leads the NBA in pace of play at 108.1 and Memphis ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Hard to see the Blazers not getting to 120 points in this one. Throw in how well the Grizzlies are playing offensively and this thing could easily get into the 250s. 

OVER is 24-11 in Portland's last 35 after a game that went UNDER and 18-8 in the Grizzlies last 26 as a road dog. Give me the OVER 234! 

50* (NBA) - Wednesday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Kings +8) 

I love the value we are getting with the Kings as a 8-point road dog against the Suns. I just think Phoenix is being way overvalued by the books to start the season, which all stems from last year's run to the NBA Finals. They are just 1-2 to start the year with a 12-point home loss to the Nuggets as a 6-point favorite and a 29-point loss as a 2.5-point dog at Portland. They did beat the Lakers 115-105 on the road, but LA has not looked great early on as they try to figure out how to make it all work with Westbrook. 

Kings are also 1-2, which might not seem great, but most probably had them 0-3 to start the year. Sacramento had to go on the road to play the Blazers in their opener before hosting the Jazz and Warriors. They beat Portland and while they lost to Utah and Golden State, they were competitive in both games. I just think this is a much closer matchup than the number would suggest. I think we see that in the fact that the Kings rate higher in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Give me the Kings +8! 

40* (NBA) - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +4.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with Miami a 4.5-point road dog against the Nets. I just have not been impressed with what I've seen out of Brooklyn to start the year. It's all Durant. Harden isn't giving them anything close to what they need and they aren't as deep as they were a season ago. It shows in the fact that you got two former MVPs in your starting lineup and you are shooting just 44.2% as a team from the field. 

As for Miami, I think everyone realises the Heat are a top tier team, I just don't think they realize how good they are. The only game they lost was a road game at the Pacers where they didn't have Kyle Lowry. It was also a big flat spot for the Heat after they laid it all on the line in a 137-95 win over the Bucks two days earlier. 

I just think the Heat are playing the better basketball and have a lot more to prove in this one. Give me Miami +4.5! 

50* (NBA) - 76ers/Knicks Atlantic Division PLAY OF THE MONTH (Knicks -1.5) 

I love the value we are getting with the Knicks as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the 76ers. This to me feels like what the line should be if Philly was at full strength with Ben Simmons on the floor. 

I know that the 76ers are 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS to start the season without Simmons, but their two wins have come against the Pelicans and Thunder, who are a combined 1-6. The only legit team they played is the Nets and they lost at home 109-114. 

The Knicks are a team that I think are flying a little bit under the radar. No one seems to want to give Thibs and this team much respect for what they did a year ago, where they finished with the 4th best record in the east at 41-31. 

Knicks opened the season with that crazy 138-134 2OT win at home against Boston. A game they should have won in regulation if not for a minor collapse in the last few minutes. They went out 2 days later and crushed the Magic 121-9, covering as a 8-point favorite. They did lose outright as a 12-point favorite at home to Orlando in their next game, but that was the definition of a flat spot for New York. 

I just think with Julius Randle playing like he did last year and the two big additions of Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier, the Knicks are an even stronger team this season. Give me the Knicks -1.5! 

50* (NBA) - Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Wizards +7) 

I love the value we are getting with Washington as a 7-point dog against the Nets. I've been on Washington in each of their first two games. They came thru in their opener and had a brutal beat in the second game...they were -2.5, led by 10 going to the 4th quarter, were up 4 in OT and Pacers hit a 3 a the buzzer to lose by 1. 

Keep in mind they played that game against Indiana without their best player in Bradley Beal. It just goes to speak to the depth this Wizards team has added. Dinwiddie, who they added from Brooklyn, had a team-high 34 and Kuzma put in 26. 

The Nets just haven't looked like the team we thought. They got blitzed in the opener at Milwaukee, were a bit lucky to beat the 76ers on the road and lost 95-111 at home to the Hornets yesterday. A game they led 58-50 at the half. Durant is playing great, but he's getting no help. James Harden has not played up to par, as he's only averaging 18.3 ppg on 38.8% shooting. Give me the Wizards +7! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 229.5) 

The line here screams take the Pacers and I might end up throwing a little on Indiana in this one, but I think the even better value is on the OVER 229.5. 

I think a lot of people expected this Pacers offense to struggle early with starters Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren sidelined. It hasn't. They got 3 guys who are scoring 20+ ppg. Sabonis is at 26.0 ppg, Brogdon is at 24.7 ppg and 1st round rookie Duarte is at 20.3 ppg. They rank in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency. They also are playing fast, as they rank 5th in the NBA in pace. 

They also catch a break in this one, as the Bucks will be without two starters and two of their better defenders in Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday. 

You might be wondering about the Bucks offense without those two guys, but they still got Antetokounmpo and Middleton to carry that offense. I also don't think this Pacers defense is anything special. They just held Miami to 91 in their last game, but that Heat team shot horrific and really looked lost without point guard Kyle Lowry. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

40* (NBA) - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Heat -4) 

We had a really bad beat last night on the Wizards -2.5, as they ended up beating the Pacers 135-134 in OT. It was just brutal. Washington had a 10-point lead going into the 4th quarter and proceeded to score just 17 to send the game to OT, where the Pacers hit a 3 at the buzzer down 4. 

I just really question how much Indiana has left in the tank after playing that OT game against the Wizards. Keep in mind the Pacers played in a uptempo affair on Wednesday against Charlotte (lost 122-123). This will be their 3rd game in 4 nights on no rest. 

Miami on the other hand has only played 1 game this season, which was Thursday's 137-95 blowout win over the Bucks at home. Heat are going to be the much more rested team in this game and on top of that are hands down the better team in this matchup. Miami's got another day off tomorrow before hosting an awful Orlando team on Monday, so there's no reason for them to not show up with a great effort here. Give me the Heat -4! 

40* (NBA) - Suns/Lakers ESPN Sharp Money INSIDER (Under 223) 

It's a long season and one loss doesn't mean much, but no one wants to start the season poorly. I think there's going to be a sense of urgency for both the Suns and Lakers to play well and avoid starting 0-2 after upset losses in their season openers. LA got 30+ points from LeBron and AD and still lost 114-121 at home to the Warriors. Phoenix lost by double-digits at home 98-110 to the Nuggets. 

You also got to factor in with how big a public team the Lakers are and this being a game that is televised on ESPN, it's going to get a decent amount of traffic. I think these big games can see some inflated totals and this definitely feels high to me. 

The Lakers are simply too old to play a run and gun style for 82 games and adding Westbrook doesn't change that. You also got some chemistry issues with Westbrook trying to carve a role in an offense where he's not going to be the primary ball handler. It wasn't pretty in his debut, as he scored just 8 points with a mere 4 assists and 5 rebounds. 

Suns are also a team that doesn't like to play fast. Phoenix T-26th in pace of play last year and basically brought the same roster back. These are also two teams that ranked in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency last year. Give me the UNDER 223! 

50* (NBA) Friday Night MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -1) 

I was dead wrong with Brooklyn in Tuesday's season opener at Milwaukee. I thought the Bucks would come out fat and happy and instead they played like they were the team with something to prove. Unfortunately these great situation spots can't come through every time. 

The Nets didn't help matters by not playing up to their potential. They got outscored 37-25 in the 1st quarter and 30-19 in the 4th quarter. I know they are without Kyrie, but the duo of Harden and Durant is still lethal. I just don't see this team starting the season 0-2. 

The 76ers are an interesting team, as they have all that off the court drama going on with Ben Simmons. Philly is still a playoff team without Simmons if Embiid is healthy, but not a team you think can do much in the postseason. They won their season opener 117-97 against a Pelicans team that was without Zion. 

That was the good news for the 76ers. One game into the season and Joel Embiid is already showing up on the injury report with a sore knee. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he doesn't play in this game. Philly hasn't hesitated in years past resting him when he's not at full strength and it would makes sense to do it this early in the year. 

With or without Embiid on the floor in this game, I will go down swinging with Brooklyn at this price. Give me the Nets -1! 

40* (NBA) Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE (Wizards -2.5) 

I think a lot of people were surprised with how good the Wizards looked in Wednesday's season opener. They laid it on a Raptors team that a lot of people came into the season thinking could be a surprise in the east. Washington won 98-83, outscoring Toronto 57-37 in the 1st half. 

I was not one of those people that were surprised. I gave out a free pick on the Wizards Wednesday. With triple-double machines Russell Westbrook getting traded to the Lakers, it just felt like everyone wrote this team off. 

It's not as bad of a roster as you think. They still have a top tier player in Bradley Beal who can shoulder the offense. The only other starter back with Beal is big man Daniel Gafford, who they got in a trade last year. They signed Spencer Dinwiddie away from the Nets, who only played 3 games last year after posting career highs of 20.6 ppg and 6.8 apg the season before. The other two starters are guys they got in the Westbrook trade in Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (also got a great reserve in Montrezl Harrell). 

The Pacers lost 122-123 on the road against the Hornets in an absolutely crazy game. Indiana's couldn't miss in the 1st half of that game and jumped out to a 75-59 lead at the half. They then managed to score just 13 points in the 3rd quarter and Charlotte all the sudden led 92-88 going into the 4th. Hornets got the lead up to 10, before the Pacers stormed back to take the lead. 

I just wonder if that game didn't take a lot of a depleted Pacers roster that is starting the season down two starters in Caris LeVert and T.J. Warren. Keep in mind they only used an 8-man rotation against Charlotte. 

I also just wonder if an awful Hornets defense didn't make this Pacers team look a little better than it actually is right now. Give me the Wizards -2.5! 

50* (NBA) Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -2.5) 

I love the value here with the Hawks as a slim 2.5-point home favorite against the Mavericks. I'm a little shocked Atlanta isn't getting a little more love here. This is a team that appeared to take a huge step forward last season, as they made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals. 

That should have only lit a fire under this Hawks team to work that much harder to take that elusive next step and get to a NBA Finals. Regardless if they got a real shot at that or not, they believe they do. So much so that they brought basically everyone back from that team. 

You could same the same thing about the Mavs bringing a lot of their guys back, but there is a big difference with this Dallas team. Head coach Rick Carlisle decided to not come back (now with the Pacers) and they replaced him with Jason Kidd. I loved Kidd as a player, but he's been a failure at this head coaching thing. I know it might not seem like a NBA coach does a lot, but I think losing Carlisle is a big deal for this young team. Give me the Hawks -2.5 at home! 

40* (NBA) - Situational Late Night BAILOUT B-L-O-W-O-U-T (Nuggets +6) 

Big time value here with the Nuggets as a 6-point dog in Wednesday's season opener. Denver will be on the road against the Suns, who I think are going to be a team the books way overvalue early on. Everyone wants to bet Phoenix after last year's run to the NBA Finals, especially with the Suns bringing back everyone from that team and adding a guy like Landry Shamet. 

This should be one of the better teams in the West, but they should not be this big of a favorite against an equally talented Nuggets team. Denver has finished in the Top 3 of the Western Conference standings each of the last 3 years. They got too got everyone back, including the reigning MVP in Nikola Jokic. 

If I was making a line on these two teams on a neutral court, I would have them at a pick'em. While home court is not equal in the NBA, the standard is around 3 points. This line is double that. Give me the Nuggets +6! 

40* (NBA) Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (OVER 219.5) 

I want to lay the points with Chicago in this one (might put a little on it), but feel the safer bet is on the OVER 219.5. This new look Bulls team is getting some hype coming into the season after adding Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan to form a pretty good top 4 with returnees Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. They also got a talented youngster in Pat Williams, who I like, and two more additions off the bench in Alex Caruso and Derrick Jones Jr. 

I think they could be even better than people are expecting. With what's going on with Ben Simmons in Philly, there's reason to think this team could be right there fighting for that right to be the 3rd best team in the Eastern Conference behind the Bucks and Nets. 

Regardless if they live up to that or not, this is a team that I think will be one of the more higher-scoring teams in the league. Few are better in the NBA at igniting the fast break than Ball and LaVine is one of the more electric open court players. I see this team playing a ton in transition and being one of the more higher-scoring teams in the league. 

The big concern with Chicago is just how good can this team be defensively? I think it could have some problems, especially early in the year given the lack of chemistry they have playing together. 

Detroit doesn't even figure to be in the running for a playoff spot this year. The Pistons simply put lack talent. They are rebuilding under Cade Cunningham. He's not going to play. I just think people have a hard time seeing the Pistons doing enough offensively to want to take the OVER in this game. 

I just think the total is too low. I think Chicago will be pushing 120 points and don't think this defense on the road is going to hold Detroit under 100. Give me the OVER 219.5! 

50* (NBA) - Vegas Insider MAX UNIT Top Play (Hornets -2) 

I absolutely love the Hornets as a mere 2-point home favorite in Wednesday's season opener at home against the Pacers. I know a lot of people are questioning Charlotte having a 38.5 game win total after only winning 33 games a year ago (keep in mind they did play 10 fewer games).

I definitely don't think there will be many running to place a bet on the OVER 38.5. That tells me the books see a lot in this team and are more than happy to take your UNDER bet. I'll side with the wiseguys that this Charlotte team is going to be improved. 

The do got a pretty good starting 5 with LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridgers and Mason Plumlee/P.J. Washington. Ball had a sensational rookie year, averaging 15.7 ppg, 6.1 apg and 5.9 rpg. He only played in 51 games and started just 31, which might be a big part of the books stake on this team. If he takes another step in year two, this team will be in the playoff mix. 

The Pacers are a team that I got my concerns with. Indiana was just as bad as Charlotte last year. They went 34-38. While there starting five of Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, T.J. Warren, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner, they will be down two of them. LeVert and Warren are both ruled out for this game. They could also be without one of their top reserves in Jeremy Lamb. 

I just think Indiana is getting way too much respect given the injuries they are dealing with to start the season. Give me the Hornets -2! 

50* (NBA) - Opening Night PLAY OF THE YEAR (Nets +1) 

I love Brooklyn at basically a pick'em tonight, as they go on the road to take on the defending champs to open their season. This is more of a party for the Bucks, as tonight is all about the ring ceremony for them. For Brooklyn, it's the first step to redemption. If this team had been healthy last year, I'm confident they would have been the team getting their championship rings on opening night. 

Add in the fact they get to play the team that knocked them out of the playoffs and went on to win it all, I see the Nets out to make a statement. 

Some might see the drama with Kyrie Irving not playing because he won't get vaccinated as a big blow to this team. There's no denying that Irving is a special talent on the court, but he's a headcase off of it. I don't think not having him around is as going to hurt them as much as most think. 

They got a more than capable point guard to replace Irving in James Harden, a guy I think was out of shape last year. I think we are going to see Harden back to his MVP form and he's playing alongside arguably the best player in the game in Kevin Durant. 

This is also a deeper team than the one that ended last season. They brought in Patty Mills to be their backup point guard, so the depth there is solid. They also signed veteran Paul Milsap and got LaMarcus Aldridge to come out of retirement, giving them a solid 1-2 punch down low. I also think their 1st round pick in Cam Thomas is a guy who could carve out a role. 

Milwaukee's got pretty much the same team, outside of the addition of SG Grayson Allen. They also aren't at full strength with starting SG Donte DiVincenzo and backup big man Bobby Portis both out. Give me the Nets +1!

50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks Game 6 MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 222.5) 

As much as I wanted to go take the points with Phoenix here, the Suns have burnt me the last two games of this series. I also think the much stronger play in this one is the OVER. While these two teams combined for 242 in Game 5, Milwaukee had one of the greatest team shooting games in NBA Finals history. They couldn't miss in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. Phoenix was also on fire, as they shot 55.2% from the field. 

Look for the shooting to cool off in the first elimination game of the series. Phoenix must win to force a Game 7, so we know they are going to give everything they got defensively. While Milwaukee is up, this game is huge for them too. They don't want this to go to a Game 7. Give me the UNDER 222.5! 

50* (NBA) Bucks/Suns Game 5 MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -3.5) 

We took a tough loss with the Suns +5 in Game 4, as they wound up losing by 6 after leading by as many as 9 in the 4th quarter. It was a bit of a meltdown for Phoenix once Devin Booker picked up his 5th foul early in the 4th, as Booker had been dominating up to that point. 

Phoenix really should have won that game getting next to nothing out of veteran point guard Chris Paul. I just think that with the series shifting back to Phoenix, the Suns are going to not only get more out of their role players, but also I see Paul and Booker both playing well. Give me the Suns -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns +5)

I will gladly take my chances with Phoenix as a 5-point dog in Game 4. I was not surprised at all at what happened in Game 3. The Bucks were in full on desperation mode to avoid going down 3-0 and were getting a big boost with the series shifting to Milwaukee. 

Look for the Suns to bounce back in a big way. Neither Paul or Booker played well in Game 3. I see both of them playing better. I also think we see a lot more energy defensively from Phoenix. I also think that there's a good chance if Milwaukee does manage to win this game, the Suns will be able to keep it within the number. Give me Phoenix +5! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Bucks -4) 

I was on the Suns in both Game 1 and Game 2. I also like Phoenix to win this series. With that said, I love this spot and price with the Bucks in Game 3, as the series shifts to Milwaukee. I know the final scores look like Phoenix dominated, but Milwaukee put a much better fight than the scores would indicate. 

Not only are the Bucks going to get a big boost playing at home (mainly the role players), we are going to see Milwaukee treat this like a Game 7. They have to win this game to have any shot. It's just hard for the Suns to treat it in the same way up 2-0. I think Milwaukee wins here and the Suns take the next two to close it out in Phoenix in Game 5. Give me the Bucks -4!

50* (NBA) - Bucks/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -5.5) 

I cashed Phoenix in Game 1 and will fire right back with the Suns at -5.5 in Game 2. Even though the Bucks lost Game 1 by 13-points, there's a lot of talk about how competitive Milwaukee was in defeat. 

I look at it a little different. The Bucks lost by 13 despite the two teams basically shooting the same from the field (Suns 46.6% and Bucks 45.5%) and Milwaukee going +5 (16 to 11) on made 3-pointers. 

Giannis was able to play Game 1 and was effective with 20 points and 17 rebounds, but he only attempted 11 shots, while Middleton took 26 and both Holiday and Lopez attempting 14. That tells me Giannis is not 100%. I also wonder how that knee is going to respond to those 35 mins he played just two days ago. Give me the Suns -5.5! 

40* (NBA) - Bucks/Suns Game 1 VEGAS INSIDER (Suns -6)

I'll lay the 6-points with the Suns in Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Tuesday. I know the Bucks were able to advance past the Hawks without Giannis in the Eastern Conference Finals, but I give them no shot against the Suns without him. He's likely to be back at some point, but is listed as doubtful for Game 1. 

I also think the Suns are much better suited to deal with the size and length of the Bucks. They have seen plenty of it in the postseason in their two series with the Lakers and Clippers. Guard play has also been a problem for Milwaukee defensively and Phoenix has two studs with Paul and Booker. I don't see this one being close at all. Give me the Suns -6! 

50* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks -2.5) 

I really like Atlanta at -2.5 at home in Game 6 on Saturday. I think we have seen how much more home court matters when the star players aren't on the court in the last two games. Atlanta won Game 4 at home 110-88 in their first game without Trae Young. Milwaukee won Game 5 at home 123-112 in their first game without Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

Antetokounmpo has been downgraded to doubtful and Trae Young is questionable. Some thought there was a chance Young was going to come back for Game 2. With Atlanta facing elimination, you have to think Young will be out there at all costs. 

Even if he doesn't play (I think he will), I see this game playing out similarly to Game 4. Maybe not quite as big a blowout, but a comfortable home win to set up Game 7 on Sunday. Give me the Hawks -2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +2)

I'm going to take Atlanta as a small dog in Game 5 on the road. After watching the Hawks dominate Game 4 at home without Trae Young, some might be thinking Milwaukee can do the same without Giannis in this one. I just don't think that will be the case. 

Atlanta had no answer for Antetokounmpo. If he got to his spot, there was little to nothing they could do to stop him. If they doubled him, it would just result in an open shot for another player. I just think Milwaukee is in a lot of trouble without their former MVP to lead the way. 

Young is going to be a game-time decision for the Hawks. If he plays, it's a plus, but I don't think Atlanta needs him to win this game. Give me the Hawks +2! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns +1) 

I'm going big on the Suns in Game 6 as they go to LA looking to close out the series. I did not see Game 5 going as it did. I expected a little more urgency out of Phoenix, but that just wasn't the case.

There's also not a lot you can do when the Clippers not only get a monster game out of Paul George, but also huge showings from guys like Reggie Jackson, Marcus Morris and DeMarcus Cousins. All 4 of those guys were lights out from the field, as they combined to shoot 63%. 

Replicating that kind of production is very unlikely. We should also see a big uptick in the energy level for the Suns. Give me Phoenix +1! 

40* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucks -6.5) 

I have to lay the 6.5 with Milwaukee in Game 4 on the road. While I'm expecting Trae Young to suit up for Atlanta, he's not going to be playing this game at 100%. I just don't think Atlanta has enough fire-power to keep it close against this Bucks team without Young putting up crazy numbers.

Just look at Game 2, which Milwaukee won 125-91. Young only scored 15 points and yet was still the leading scorer for Atlanta. He's not only the guy that needs to score, he's the one that gets everyone else going. 

Not only that, but it's pretty clear the Hawks defense isn't built to stop this Bucks' offense. Milwaukee has really scored at will in the paint and when you get easy looks like that, it makes it a lot easier to not only win, but win going away on the road. Give me the Bucks -6.5! 

50* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Suns as a 5-point home favorite in Game 5 on Monday. Phoenix was able to win Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead. They did so with Paul and Booker having another off night shooting. Paul was 11 for 41 (26.8%) from the field in the 2 games at LA, while Booker was just as bad at 13 for 43 (30.2%). 

Phoenix as a team shot 38.9% from the field in Game 3 and 36.0% in Game 4. That's after they shot 55.1% in Game 1 and 50.0% in Game 2 at home. I know the Clippers have made some adjustments, but I think a lot of the poor shooting is just the difference of home/away. 

Keep in mind this is a Suns team that is shooting 48.8% from the field for the season. If they can just get in the mid 40's they are going to run away with this thing. Give me Phoenix -5! 

50* (NBA) - Bucks/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +5) 

I love the value here with Atlanta as a 5-point home dog in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. If you look at the Game 2 line, which was Bucks -8 at home, this line should be closer to 2.5-3 at Atlanta when you factor in the home court edge. The line we are seeing is more like if they were playing on a neutral court. 

It's just a big overreaction to Milwaukee's blowout win in Game 2. What people overlook with that result, is that was a clear letdown spot for Atlanta who had just stole Game 1. Not only that game, but they had just played that Game 7 against the 76ers two days prior to Game 1. 

Milwaukee was simply the more motivated team in Game 2. I also think having Scott Foster referee that game, was a big advantage for the Bucks, as he lets a lot more go, which doesn't favor the smaller Young. Look for Young to not only get a few more calls and get back to that guy that dominated Game 1 with 48 points. He also should get plenty of help from the role players playing at home. Give me the Hawks +5! 

50* (NBA) - Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1) 

I really like Phoenix to bounce back from a really poor showing in Game 3 to win Game 4 and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. I know LA ended up running away with a 106-92 win in Game 3, but let's not forget that the Suns had the lead at the half in that one. 

When you look at how poorly Phoenix shot the ball, they were lucky it was as close as it was. Suns were just 35-90 (38.9%) from the field and shot a mere 31.3% from behind the 3-point line. Chris Paul was 5 of 19 (26.3%) from the field and Devin Booker was an even worse 5 of 21 (23.8%). 

I'm pretty confident Paul and Booker shoot considerably better in Game 3 and I just don't think LA will be able to keep pace without Kawhi Leonard. They may also be without a key piece in Marcus Morris. Give me the Suns -1! 

50* (NBA) Hawks/Bucks MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 226) 

I think we are getting a really great price on the UNDER (226) in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Game 1 went over the total of 223.5 in the Hawks 116-113 win, it didn't get their by much. 

That was with some really big offensive performances by both teams. Trae Young had a game-high 48. He's getting all the praise and rightfully so, but John Collins had a monster game with 23 points and 15 boards. For the Bucks, they got 34 from Antetokoumpo and 33 from Holiday. 

We know we are going to get the best Milwaukee has to offer on the defensive side to avoid going down 0-2 before Game 3 in Atlanta. You also got to think that both teams will make some adjustments to slow the other team down. Give me the UNDER 226! 

50* (NBA) Suns/Clippers MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Suns at -1 in Game 3. I took the Clippers in both Game 1 and 2, just missing out on a cash in Game 1 and easily winning in Game 2. I just thought the Suns were being a bit overpriced with Chris Paul out. 

I don't know if it's cause the Clippers have been down 0-2 in each of their first two series and came back to make a series of it, but LA should be a be a bigger dog with Paul expected to return. Especially with Kawhi still out for the Clippers. 

You also can't overlook the way that Phoenix was able to steal Game 2. Not only Ayton's last second dunk for the win, but Paul George's two critical missed free throws right before that. Losing like that is brutal and can be really hard to bounce back from. 

Phoenix has also shown the want and the ability to finish off teams when they get up in a series. I'm confident there is zero overlooking this game for the Suns. Give me Phoenix -1! 

50* (NBA) - East Conference Finals PLAY OF THE MONTH (Hawks +8) 

I just feel like 8-points is way too much for Atlanta to be catching in Game 1 against the Bucks. Milwaukee should win the series, but there's no reason to think the Hawks aren't going to give them a run for their money. 

I think a lot of people credit Atlanta being in the Eastern Conference Finals more to the 76ers collapsing than giving them the props they deserve for how they are playing. Trae Young has been sensational. That's a tough 76ers team to score on with all their size and he wasn't deterred. 

I also think people are quick to forget just how fortunate the Bucks were in getting to this series. Injuries to Harden and Irving are the only reason Milwaukee is still playing. If they don't get hurt, Bucks probably get swept or lose in 5 and everyone is talking about how they need to blow it all up. 

Lastly, I just trust the Hawks a little more here to show up with the right mindset. Seeing how little respect they are getting with this huge line and hardly anyone picking them to win the series, they should have a chip on their shoulder. Milwaukee on the other hand just beat the team that everyone thought was going to win it all. Might be a little harder for them to bring that intensity. Give me the Hawks +8! 

50* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns MAX UNIT Top Play (+5.5) 

We took a bit of a tough beat on the Clippers +4 in Game 1, but I saw enough that I liked with LA to put up some big cash on them in Game 2 at +5.5. The Suns shot 55% from the field and got a triple-double from Devin Booker, who finished with 40 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists.

Yet it was a 2-point game with less than 25 seconds to play. That to me is a good sign for the Clippers being able to make the adjustments (something they have been great at in these playoffs) needed to not only cover, but even up the series 1-1 with a win. 

Booker may play well again in Game 2, but the chances of him replicating the box score from Game 1 is highly unlikely. 

Clippers got big games from George (34 points) and Jackson (24 points), but DeMarcus Cousins is the only other guy who finished in double-figures with 11. Mann, who had that monster Game 6 against Utah, only played 27 minutes because of foul trouble. He was 3 for 4, including 3 for 3 from 3. They have to do a better job of getting him more involved while he's playing like this. 

If Chris Paul was playing, this would be a different story. Give me the Clippers +5.5! 

50* (NBA) - Hawks/76ers Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +7) 

I've had a pretty good feel for this series, cashing the Hawks +6 in Game 5 and the 76ers -3 in Game 6. Given the number, I can't help myself but to go big on Atlanta +7 in Game 7. The home team has historically had the edge in Game 7, but not so much of late. Since 2016, the home team is just 8-7 SU in Game 7 and a miserable 4-11 ATS (2-10 L12). 

You also got to look at just how close these last 3 games have been at the end. Since the 76ers 16-point win in Game 3, the last 3 games have been decided by a combined 11 points with no single margin greater than 5. With that said, I not only think the Hawks can keep this close, but I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright. 

While Philly was able to keep the series alive with a 104-99 win in Game 6, I think it says a lot that Atlanta was able to keep it close with no one stepping up to help Trae Young. He had 34 points and the next best was 17 from Huerter. Not to mention it wasn't anywhere close to Young's best, as he was just 13 of 30 from the field. Give me the Hawks +7! 

40* (NBA) - Clippers/Suns VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers +4) 

I'll take my chances with the Clippers as a 4-point road dog in Game 1 against the Suns. I know Chris Paul is just a piece to Phoenix's success, but I believe he's the most important piece. It's not so much his scoring, though it's been up in the playoffs, but his ability to run the offense and get guys easy looks. He's also the guy everyone looks to in tough situations. Not having him out there is a massive loss. 

I also think it's a tough spot for the Suns due to the fact that they haven't played in a week since their 4-game sweep of the Nuggets. The rest is great for the body, but no always great for the mind and mechanics. Clippers on the other hand are riding a wave of momentum after taking out the Jazz without Kawhi. I think LA is in prime position to steal Game 1. Give me the Clippers +4! 

5* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -1.5)

I love the Nets as a slim -1.5 home favorite in Game 7 against the Bucks. The home team has historically owned Game 7 and I think that will be the case here. Milwaukee played really well at home in Game 6 to keep the series alive, but the Bucks don't figure to get the kind of production out of guys not named Antetokounmpo on the road. 

At the same time, you can expect more out of the role players for Brooklyn. I also think we could see Harden give a little more than he has, given this is a winner take all game. He was definitely more of a factor in his second game back and as long as he doesn't re-injure that hamstring, it's going to get better and better each day. 

More than anything, I'm betting on Kevin Durant to deliver the performance needed to get Brooklyn the win. We saw him put this team on his back in Game 5 and he's more than capable of shouldering the load. Give me the Nets -1.5! 

50* (NBA) - 76ers/Hawks MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -3) 

I'll take my chances here with the 76ers as a slim 3-point road favorite in Game 6. All the talk right now is about how Philadelphia blew that 26-point lead in Game 5. While I definitely enjoyed having the Hawks +6, I'm not writing the 76ers off like others. 

Not enough credit is being given to Atlanta's shot making. The Hawks were 13 of 16 from the field in the 4h quarter and it's not like they were all easy looks at the basket. Yes the 76ers played poorly down the stretch, but I still like what I saw from this team for the majority of that game. 

One thing is for sure, if the 76ers get up big at any point in the rest of this series, they will not take their foot off the gas. I feel good about Philly not only winning this game, but winning it rather convincingly. Give me the 76ers -3! 

40* (NBA) - Nets/Bucks VEGAS INSIDER (Nets +6) 

This almost looks too good to be true with Brooklyn catching 6-points in Game 6, but I just can't help myself. I just really question the psyche of the Bucks after how they lost in Game 5. Milwaukee was in complete control of that game to start, leading 29-15 at the end of the 1st quarter and up by 16 at the half. Only to lose 108-114. 

Durant was sensational, scoring 49 points with 17 rebounds and 10 assists. No one may be better suited to shoulder the load than this guy. Having Harden helps. I know he's playing at less than 100%, but just his presence on the court is huge for this team. I also got to think he's going to do a little better than his 5 points on 1 of 10 shooting. 

I really think given how Game 5 ended that the series will end with a Nets win tonight, but no way I'm passing up on 6-points. Give me Brooklyn +6! 

50* (NBA) Hawks/76ers MAX UNIT Top Play (Hawks +6.5) 

I'll take my chances with Atlanta as a 6.5-point road dog in Game 5. The series may be tied up at 2-2 and headed back to Philly, but the Hawks are the team with all the momentum. Atlanta outscored the 76ers 54-38 in the 2nd half of their 103-100 come from behind win in Game 4. 

While Trae Young had 25 points and 18 assists, he shot just 8 of 26 from the field and 3 for 11 from behind the 3-point line. I think it says a lot how he can impact a game that much even when he's not shooting great. Have to think Young will be a little more efficient in this one. 

The other huge thing here that I think should have this line lower, Joel Embiid is clearly not 100%. That torn meniscus in his knee is really starting to cause him problems. I just don't think that's something that's going to all the sudden feel better on just 1 day of rest. Keep in mind he had two days to recover from Game 3 to Game 4. Give me the Hawks +6.5! 

50* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets +4.5) 

No Kyrie. No Harden. How could the Nets possibly win this game without their two superstars? This is what everyone is thinking after Milwaukee's 107-96 win in Game 3 to even the series at 2-2. 

I believe we are seeing a big overreaction with this line. I just don't think the Bucks should be laying almost 5-points on the road. For as much as Milwaukee "dominated" Game 3, they only won by 11 with Brooklyn having an awful night offensively. Durant scored 28. The only other player was Irving with 11 and he played a total of 17 mins. 

I believe a lot of that is as simple as the impact being on the road has on the role players. I'm expecting a monster game from KD, but I also think Blake Griffin and Joe Harris will play big roles. I also think there will be an other guy step up and give them some scoring. 

At the same time, look for some regression from the Bucks role players on the road. You also got to think a few more calls go in Brooklyn's favor in front of the home crowd. Give me the Nets +4.5! 

50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (Clippers -4.5) 

I will roll the dice with the Clippers as a 4.5-point home favorite in Game 4. This is just one of those series where you almost expect the home team to win every game. Utah won the first two game at home and LA responded with a 132-106 win in Game 3. 

As is the case for just about every team, the big difference between playing at home and on the road is the play of your role players. Utah got 30 from Mitchell, but no other player reached 20. They also lost Game 3 by 26, despite making 19 and shooting 43% from behind the 3-point line. 

That tells me the Clippers defense is making it hard for them inside and it's a dangerous thing to live and die by the 3-pointer on the road. I wouldn't be shocked if this wasn't another blowout win. Give me LA -4.5! 

40* (NBA) - 76ers/Hawks VEGAS INSIDER (Over 225.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 225.5 in Game 4 between the 76ers and Hawks. These two flew past the total (224.5) in Game 3, combing for 338 points in Philly's 127-111 win. I just think we are going to see a similar type of game that should easily get to the 230s. 

The size advantage the 76ers have is really making things easy for them offensively. Philadelphia has shot 55%, 53% and 58% from the field in the 3 games. There's only been one playoff game this year where they shot worse than 50%. That's not going to change in this series with all the easy looks they are getting inside. 

Atlanta's only choice is to outscore them and they definitely got the fire-power to do that on their home floor. Hawks have shot 51%, 46% and 48% in the series, so it's not like they aren't getting good looks. They had 111 points in Game 3, despite shooting just 6 of 23 (26%) from behind the 3-point line. Give me the OVER 225.5!

50* (NBA) - Sunday MAX UNIT Top Play (Nets -2) 

I love the Nets as a slim 2-point road favorite in Game 4 against the Bucks. While Milwaukee was able to avoid going down 3-0 with a 86-83 win in Game 3, there was a lot not to like with the Bucks in that victory. Milwaukee just doesn't have enough offense outside of their two stars Antetokounmpo and Middleton. 

The two combined for 68 points with each going for more than 30 in Game 3 and yet they still only managed 86 points. The same output they posted in their 125-86 loss in Game 3. I just think Antetokounmpo's inability to shoot from outside really hurts this team. There's also zero chance the Nets are scoring anywhere close to 83 points in this one. Durant and Irving are too good. I not only think Brooklyn wins, but I wouldn't be shocked if this was a blowout. Give me the Nets -2! 

40* (NBA) - Jazz/Clippers VEGAS INSIDER (Clippers -4.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Clippers as a small 4.5-point home favorite against the Jazz. Utah has a 2-0 series lead, but it's not like they have dominated. Jazz won Game 1 112-109 and Game 2 117-111. That's with Donovan Mitchell scoring 45 and 37 points. 

With the series shifting to LA and the Clippers backs firmly against the wall, I like them to not only win Game 3 but to win it convincingly. If you remember, whenever LA needed a win in their previous series against the Mavs they got the job done. I think the Clippers will have a better game plan for Mitchell and we will see Utah's shooting go down a bit on the road. Give me the Clippers -4.5! 

40* (NBA) - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Over 222.5) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 222.5 in Game 3 between the Suns/Nuggets. Usually I lean towards the UNDER the deeper the series goes, but 222.5 just doesn't feel like near enough. These two teams combined for 227 in Game 1 and 221 in Game 2. That's with the Nuggets only scoring 105 and 95. 

Nuggets are scoring 117.9 ppg on their home floor this season. Last time they were home was Game 5 in their first round series with Portland and they put up 147 in a game that saw 287 combined points. Both Game 1 and Game 2 in Denver got to the 230's. 

Key here is that while I think the Nuggets will get a big boost offensively at home, I don't think the Nuggets defense is going to have any better luck trying to slow down this Suns offense. Phoenix really got whatever they wanted. As long as they don't go ice cold, this thing should fly past the mark. Give me the OVER 222.5! 

50* (NBA) - Friday MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -1) 

I really like the value here with the 76ers at basically a pick'em on the road in Game 3. Since the Hawks led 74-54 at the half in Game 1, Philadelphia has outscored Atlanta 188-156 (+32). After that loss in Game 1, the 76ers really dominated from the start in Game 2. They held the Hawks to 20 points in the 1st quarter and 18 in the 4th quarter. 

Philadelphia is also going to be extremely motivated to get back the home court advantage. As far as Embiid, he's clearly not limited by his knee. Embiid had 40 points and 13 boards in Game 2. 

I like Trae Young and this Hawks team, but playing a team like the 76ers is where their inexperience in the playoffs could really hurt them. I just don't know if I'm with everyone else on how good this Atlanta team is. Seems to me they are getting a lot of love from eliminating a Knicks team that was destined to struggle in the postseason. Give me the 76ers -1! 

50* (NBA) - Thursday MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -3) 

We suffered a tough 1/2-point loss on the Jazz -3.5 in Game 1, but will not hesitate to take Utah at -3 in Game 2. The Jazz couldn't have started much worse in Game 1, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter and trailing by as many as 14 before winning 112-109. 

After getting a chance to make some adjustments at the half, Utah outscored the Clippers 32-19 in the 3rd quarter. They also won that game despite an off-night shooting. While they did make 17 3-pointers, they shot 50, which is only 34%. They also shot just 40% from the field overall. 

Let's also not forget how tough it is to play in Utah. The Jazz have a massive home-court edge, which is why I think they win here and wouldn't be surprised if LA came back and won the next two at home. Give me Utah -3! 

40* (NBA) - Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Bucks -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with Milwaukee in Game 3 at home against the Nets. It will be tough for a lot of people to back the Bucks here after watching them get annihilated 125-86 in Game 2 on Monday. Thing is, losing like that makes me like Milwaukee even more. Not only are we going to get some value on the line, but we also know that the Bucks are going to treat this like it's Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Lose here and you can stick a fork in them. 

I definitely think Milwaukee is better than they showed in their two games in Brooklyn. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nets don't lose at home this entire playoffs , especially if Harden comes back soon. 

Lets also not forget the Nets went up 2-0 at home on Boston and went on to lose Game 3 119-125 as a 7-point favorite. Give me the Bucks -3.5! 

40* (NBA) - Nuggets/Suns VEGAS INSIDER (Nuggets +6) 

I'll take my chances with the Nuggets as a 6-point road dog in Game 2 against the Suns. It just didn't look like Denver brought the right mindset into Game 1 and things really derailed for them in the 2nd Half. Nuggets had the lead at the half before getting outscored 65-47 in the last two quarters. 

I think we are going to see the Nuggets really slow things down and get Jokic even more involved. He had 22 points and 9 boards in Game 1, but shot just 10 of 23 and only had 3 assists. 

I also don't think the Suns are going to have 4 different guys score 20+ points. Phoenix also had a ridiculous 20-6 edge in free throw attempts, outscoring the Nuggets by 12 at the foul line. I'll take the points, but I like Denver to win here. Give me Nuggets +6! 

50* (NBA) - Tuesday MAX UNIT Top Play (Jazz -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with Utah as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against the Clippers. No one wants to believe in the Jazz and I think it creates value with them in this spot. With a spread of just 3.5, we basically just need Utah to win. They are 33-6 on their home floor this year. 

This is also a great fade spot for the Clippers coming off that Game 7 against the Mavs. Not only that they were facing elimination in the last two games in that series. It would make sense they come out flat in Game 1 on the road. Give me the Jazz -3.5! 

50* (NBA) - Monday MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 220.5) 

I'm going to take my chances with the UNDER 220.5 in Game 1 between the Nuggets/Suns. These two teams played 3 times in the regular-season. Suns won 106-103 in the first meeting, Denver won 130-126 in overtime and 120-112 in double-overtime the next two. 

So while it looks like 2 of the 3 were high scoring, the game that ended with 156 had 28 points scored after regulation (tied 114-114) and in the game that had 132 there were 36 scored in extra time (tied 98-98).  Denver has also lost two starters since the last time they played in Jamal Murray and Will Barton. 

I think there's value with this total due to the Nuggets coming off a high-scoring series against the Blazers. Phoenix and Portland are actually tied (4th) in offensive efficiency at 114.9. The big difference is defense. Suns are 9th in defensive efficiency at 108.8 and the Blazers are 29th at 113.4. Phoenix is also tied with Denver in pace at 26th, where Portland was tied for 16th in pace. Give me the UNDER 220.5! 

40* (NBA) - Mavs/Clippers Game 7 NO-BRAINER (UNDER 212) 

I'm going to take the UNDER 212 in Game 7 between the Mavs and Clippers. UNDERs are always a strong way to look in any Game 7. There's a lot more than just winner takes all that keeps these games lower scoring.

You have to keep in mind these teams have played each other 6 times in a little over a  week now. Both teams know what kind of adjustments the other team is going to make and they know how to defend them. You also got tired legs, which can lead to poor shooting. Lastly, the pressure of a Game 7. 

These two haven't combined for more than 205 in each of the last 3 games in the series. I don't see them breaking that trend in this one. Give me the UNDER 212! 

50* (NBA) - Hawks/76ers MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -2.5) 

I can't help myself but to go big on the 76ers in Game 1 of their series against the Hawks on Sunday. Regardless if Embiid plays (I'm assuming he won't), I'm confident Philadelphia will hold serve at home. 

The biggest thing for me is I just think the Hawks are getting way too much respect from the oddsmakers right now. A lot of that is the perception on this team after their convincing 4-1 series win over the Knicks in the first round. 

I said it from the start with New York. I did not think the Knicks were as good as people thought. There regular-season success just doesn't translate to the playoffs because everyone plays hard in the postseason. 

76ers got more than enough weapons without Embiid to dominate this game and if he plays they got no chance. Give me Philadelphia -2.5! 

50* (NBA) - Bucks/Nets NBA Playoffs PLAY OF THE MONTH (Nets -3.5) 

I love Brooklyn -3.5 at home in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup with the Bucks. I not only think the Nets take a 1-0 series lead, I could easily see them winning this game by double-digits. 

Milwaukee is a good team, but I think they are a little overvalued coming off their sweep of the Heat. The Bucks definitely looked impressive, but you can't overlook how bad Miami shot the ball in that series. The Heat shot 39.5% from the field for the series. 

They also go from facing a team that's only superstar was Jimmy Butler, to facing a Nets team that has 3 of the best players in the game in Durant, Irving and Harden. 

Milwaukee did win 2 of 3 in the regular-season, taking the last two in the series at home. It took all they had to get those two wins and the Nets didn't have Harden. Brooklyn won at home without Irving. Give me the Nets -3.5!