9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: San Antonio Spurs +7.5

I'll take my chances with the Spurs as a 7.5-point road dog against the Kings on Thursday. I took it on the chin with my play on Brooklyn against these Kings on Tuesday, as Sacramento would go on to win 153-121. 

That was clearly a huge game for the Kings, as they don't get a ton of chances to showcase their talents on national TV. Something I should have taken into account a little more than I did. With that said, I'm not sure Sacramento can play a better game than they did. I just feel like there's going to be a letdown here against a Spurs team that hasn't looked great of late, losing 7 of their last. Keep in mind prior to that game against the Nets, Sacramento hosted Golden State, played at LA against the Lakers, hosted the Cavs and played at the Warriors. 

While the losses are piling up for San Antonio, they have continued to show value, covering in 4 of their last 5 games. It's also worth pointing out that Tuesday's big blowout win over the Nets was Sacramento's only win this season by more than 7 points. Give me the Spurs +7.5! 

8* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Sam Houston State +10.5

I'll take my chances with the Bearkats as a 10.5-point dog against Utah in the Fort Myers Tip-Off. I'm just not quite understanding all the love for the Utes in this game. Yes, Utah is 3-0, but they should be given they have played LIU, Cal St. Bakersfield and Idaho St. Those are 3 AWFUL offensive teams. LIU ranks 349th in AdjOE, Cal St Bakersfield ranks 331st and Idaho St sits at 353rd. 

Sam Houston State has beaten two cupcakes (non-DI) opponents in their last two games, but they also went on the road and upset Oklahoma 52-51 as a 16.5-point dog in their opener. 

Utah has not had super senior Marco Anthony, who was their 2nd leading scorer and top rebounder from last year's 11-20 team. He's listed as questionable, so there's a good chance he won't be available for this game. I just think this Bearkats team is better than they get credit for and one that could be in the NCAA Tournament come March. Give me Sam Houston St +10.5! 

9* NCAAB Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: VCU -3.5

I'll take my chances with VCU covering the 3.5-point spread against Pittsburgh. I just think this Panthers team came into this season way overvalued and are still way overvalued. KenPom had Pitt ranked as the 84th best team in the country coming into the year. Now they are 121st. Their two losses have come against Top 50 teams in W Virginia and Michigan, but they weren't competitive in either of those games, losing by 25 to the Mountaineers and by 31 to the Wolverines. Their only win is against Tennessee-Martin, who is ranked 317th and they shot just 37% from the field in that win. 

VCU also lost last night, falling 59-63 to Arizona State. It was a game the Rams had a double-digit lead in with less than 10 minutes to play in the 2nd half. Don't get me wrong it's not a team I'm crazy about, but the Panthers rank 236th in effective FG% on offense and 247th in that same stat on defense. Give me VCU -3.5! 

10* NBA - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Chicago Bulls +3.5

I'll take my chances with the Bulls as a 3.5-point road dog against the Pelicans tonight. I really like the rest advantage for Chicago in this one, as well as the revenge angle for the Bulls in this matchup. These two teams just played last Wednesday with New Orleans going on the road and beating Chicago 115-111. The Bulls only other game they have played since that meeting is a game against the Nuggets on Sunday, so this will be just the 2nd game in 7 days for Chicago. 

As for the Pelicans, they will be playing on no rest after a big game last night against Ja Morant and the Grizzlies. It will be New Orleans' 4th game in 7 days. Pelicans didn't have Zion last night and it's unclear if he will play in this one. The line here certainly suggest that he and maybe some others might not suit up for New Orleans. Either way, I like Chicago to cover in this spot. Give me the Bulls +3.5! 

9* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Iowa/Seton Hall OVER 150

I'll take my chances with the OVER 150 in Wednesday's Big East/Big Ten clash that has Iowa going on the road to face Seton Hall. Both of these teams have been impressive out of the gate, going 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. Both teams have really looked good offensively. Iowa comes in with the No. 3 ranked offense in the country in adjusted efficiency. One thing Hawkeye's head coach Fran McCaffery knows how to do is get his offense to produce at a high level. Even with the loss of a star in Keegan Murray, this Iowa team is extremely deep and talented. 

As for Seton Hall, the Pirates have been really good offensively too. They put up 79 points in their opener against Monmouth and 80 at home against St Peters last time out. Iowa is definitely a team they should be able to find some easy baskets against. As for the great defensive numbers for Seton Hall, that's more of who they have played. Monmouth is currently ranked 304th in adjusted offensive efficiency and St. Peter's is 252nd. Give me the OVER 150! 

9* NBA - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER: Brooklyn Nets +3

I'll take my chances with the Nets bouncing back from Sunday's ugly loss to the Lakers with a big road win over the red-hot Kings. Prior to losing 103-116 to the Lakers, Brooklyn had gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS over their previous 5 games. They just didn't have much left in the tank for the Lakers playing on no rest after a big effort the night before against the Clippers. They also had to play that game shorthanded with Seth Curry and Ben Simmons both sidelined. Curry had scored 23 and 22 points in his previous 2 games. Curry is probable to play tonight and Simmons has been upgraded to questionable. 

You also have to tip your hat to the Lakers for making shots. LA shot an uncharacteristic 40% (11-27) from behind the 3-pt line. THis is a Nets defense that had been playing really well prior to that game, holding each of their previous 5 opponents under 100 points. I like them to get back to defending at that level in this game. 

The other big thing here is the Kings don't play a lot of defense. Sacramento is giving up 116.7 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot a ridiculous 50% from the field on the season. Give me the Nets +3! 

10* NCAAB - Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Duke Blue Devils PK

I'll take my chances with Duke as a Pick'em against Kansas in Tuesday's big Top 10 showdown in Indianapolis. I think there's some value with the Blue Devils to start the year, as people are a little hesitant to fully back this team without Coach K on the sideline. I don't see Duke slipping at all this year. Not with the amazing young talent they have brought in. 

As for the Jayhawks, I think they are a bit overvalued coming into the 2022-23 season after winning it all last year. Kansas lost three starters and give key contributors from last year's team, including a couple of first round picks. Yes, they added in some nice transfers and some great freshmen of their own, but I just like what I've seen out of Duke a little more in the first couple games of the season. Blue Devils will be out to make a statement in this one. Give me Duke PK! 

10* NBA Vegas Insider TOP PLAY: Milwaukee Bucks -4

I'll take my chances with the Bucks as a 4-point home favorite against the Hawks. I like the revenge spot for Milwaukee in this one, as these two teams played in Atlanta last Monday. A game the Hawks won going away 117-98. You also got the Bucks coming in off an ugly 93-111 loss at San Antonio. 

Milwaukee is still 9-3 ATS on the season. With Antetokounmpo expected to play, I think that's more than enough to back the Bucks in this spot. Keep in mind that the Bucks were a 4-point road favorite in the last meeting, so despite the change in venue, there's been no adjustment to the line. 

Atlanta will also be without talented backup big man Onyeka Okongwu. He had a +22 +/- in 22 minutes in the first meeting with Milwaukee. Not having him inside against a guy like Giannis is a huge loss. Bucks are 7-0 at home, outscoring their opponents by 13.0 ppg. Give me Milwaukee -4! 

8* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Richmond Spiders -3.5

I will take my chances with Richmond as 3.5-point road favorite against Charleston. The Spiders lost some key pieces from last year's 24-win team, but have a lot more talent coming back than people think. I also liked what they did in the transfer portal. They took care of business in their opener, beating UNI 68-55 as a 6.5-point home favorite. 

As for Charleston, they only returned 1 starter from last year's team that went just 17-15 overall and 8-10 in the CAA. The Cougars are also in what I think is a letdown spot, just two days removed from playing UNC on the road. Charleston lost by 16, but they put up a fight in a bit of a track meet, as the Tar Heels won 102-86. This is also a team that has not looked good defensively. They let UNC shoot 60.3% from the field and in their opener against UT-Chattanooga they let them shoot 49.2% from the field. Give me Richmond -3.5! 

9* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Brooklyn Nets -4.5

I'll take my chances with the Nets as a 4.5-point road favorite against the Lakers. The suspension of Kyrie and firing of head coach Steve Nash has completely flipped the script for the Nets. Brooklyn is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. The only loss coming by 2-points on the road to the Mavs. The Lakers are a complete mess right now. LA has lost 5 in a row and failed to cover in all 5. I just don't get why this team continues to get so much respect from the books, especially with LeBron sidelined. Lakers are not a good offensive team at all and are facing a resurgent Nets defense that is giving up a mere 91.2 ppg on 37.7% shooting in their last 5 games. LA's not very good defensively either. They have allowed each of their last 3 and 4 of their last 5 opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. Give me the Nets -4.5! 

8* NCAAB Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER: Iowa State Cyclones -18

I will take my chances with Iowa State as a 18-point home favorite against North Carolina A&T. No question the Cyclones lost a lot from last year's Sweet 16 team, but I'm not expecting any kind of regression from ISU this year. I love their head coach TJ Otzelberger, who did a remarkable coaching job last year. People forget that the Cyclones had just 2 wins the previous year. As for the talent lost, they more than made up for it in the transfer portal, adding some of the best players out of the A-10 to combine with the nice pieces they had coming back. We just saw this North Carolina A&T team lose by 41 points at Iowa on Friday. Its really not asking much for ISU to win here by 20+ at home. Give me the Cyclones -18! 

9* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Philadelphia 76ers -3

I'll take my chances with the 76ers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Hawks on Saturday. I love the revenge angle here for Philadelphia, as these two teams just played in Atlanta on Thursday and the Hawks were able to come away with a 104-95 win. It's not easy beating the same team twice, especially when you go from playing at home to the road. Atlanta is 3-2 on the road, but two of those wins have come against the Pistons. The other was against a struggling Knicks team, where they had to rally from way behind. 

I know the offense has struggled of late for the 76ers, but I really love the intensity they are playing with on the defensive side of the ball. I expect that same effort on that side of the ball in the rematch and I got a good feeling about the offense performing much better at home. 

Hawks are 8-22 ATS last 30 road games with a total in the 220s, 5-16 ATS last 21 on the road when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 and 2-12 ATS last 14 on the road when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the 76ers -3! 

9* NCAAB Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Washington State Cougars -105

I'll take my chances with Washington State on the money line as this game is basically a pick'em. I'm following the steam on the Cougars in this one, as this line opened with Boise State as the favorite and has flipped to Washington State favored in some spots. 

I had some lofty expectations for the Cougars coming into the year and they really showed me something in their opener against Texas State. Washington State crushed the Bobcats 83-61, easily covering as a 12.5-point favorite. Super sophomore Mouhamed Gueye was easily the best player on the floor and is the best NBA prospect the Cougars have had since Klay Thompson. He's not alone, as the Cougars got a lot of talent sprinkled across their roster. 

Also worth noting that was no pushover in Texas State. The Bobcats were the team a lot of people had pegged as the team to beat in the Sun Belt this year. 

As for Boise State, I had my concerns with the Broncos after losing 3 starters last year who accounted for 32.5 points/game, which is almost half of what they averaged for a game last year (68.3 ppg). Boise State lost their opener 66-68 at home to South Dakota State as a 6.5-point favorite and I think this could prove to be a real challenge for them. Give me Washington State -105! 

8* NBA Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR: Golden State Warriors -1.5

I'll take my chances with Golden State as a mere 1.5 point home favorite against Cleveland. I just think it's a great spot here to buy-low on the Warriors. Golden State is just 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS. They have lost 5 of their last 6 and failed to cover in 8 of their last 10. 

Clearly this is not the same team that won it all last year, at least not yet, but I also think you have to look at the schedule as a reason for their slow start. Golden State is a dreadful 0-6 on the road, yet are a very good 4-1 at home. They will be well rested for this game, having not played since Monday. As for the Cavs, they are finishing up a 5-game road trip that started in Detroit and went out west for the final 4 games. This will be their 4th game in 6 days, all on the road. Give me the Warriors -1.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Nuggets/Celtics OVER 230.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 230.5 in Friday's showdown between the Nuggets and Celtics. I don't see these two teams having any problem getting into the 230s. Boston has seen an average combined score of 237.2 points in their 5 home games this year. Denver has seen an average combined score of 235.6 in their 7 road games. 

These are the two most efficient offenses in the league with Boston ranking first in offensive efficiency and the Nuggets in second. Not only that, but both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive efficiency. Unless we get some dreadful shooting by both teams, this should easily get past the number, as I think both of these teams will finish in the 120s. Give me the OVER 230.5! 

8* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Richmond -7.5

I got no problem laying single digits with Richmond at home against Northern Iowa. Both of these teams are coming off great seasons. The Spiders went 24-13, while the Panthers finished 20-12. Both lose some real key pieces from last year, but the losses will be felt much more for UNI, who has to replace 4 starters, including Missouri Valley Player of the Year A.J. Green. They have just two kids on their roster that are more than a sophomore and both have barely played in their tenure. 

Richmond has just two starters back, but both of those are good players in Tyler Burton and Andre Gustavson. They also have much better young talent ready to step up and unlike UNI they added some good players in the portal. 

Don't be fooled by UNI's 50+ point win over Wartburg in their opener. That's an awful non-DI opponent. Give me Richmond -7.5! 

9* NCAAB Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Florida Atlantic Owls +6.5

I'll take my chances with FAU as a 6.5-point road dog against Ole Miss on Friday. I think the Owls got a shot of winning this game outright. Ole Miss looks to still be in rebuilding mode. They only returned 3 starters from last year's 13-win team and one of those is star sophomore guard Deashun Ruffin, who didn't play in their opener Monday and figures to still be out as he continues to work his way back from ACL surgery last Feb. 

As for FAU, they figure to be one of the top teams in C-USA this year. The Owls have 4 starters back from a team that won 19 games last year. They have a really good backcourt duo with Alijah Martin and Michael Forrest. This is also a team that really gets after you on defense. Ole Miss shot just 37.3% from the field at home in their opener against Alcorn State. Give me FAU +6.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Under 226

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 226 in Thursday's game between the Pelicans and Blazers. These have to be two tired teams going into this matchup. Both teams will be on no rest after playing last night and both teams are playing their 5th game in 7 days. Both also had to travel to Portland for this matchup, with New Orleans ending a 3-game road trip in Chicago last night and the Blazers continuing on their 6-game road trip, which doesn't end until Saturday's game in Dallas. 

Portland is also an UNDER team, as they come into this game T-26th in Pace and T-7th in defensive efficiency. UNDER has gone 5-1 in the Blazers 6 road games this season, 3-1 when playing a team with a winning record and 3-1 vs high-scoring teams like the Pelicans who are averaging 116+ points/game. Give me the UNDER 226! 

9* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Cincinnati Bearcats -22

I'll take my chances with Cincinnati covering as 22-point home favorites against Cleveland State. I don't think the number here is near enough given the mismatch on the floor and at head coach. The Bearcats only two significant losses from last year were Abdul Ado and Mike Saunders Jr., who combined only averaged 9.7 ppg. They get back their star in senior guard David DeJulius and added in Memphis transfer Landers Nolley II to give them another scorer, something they desperately needed last year. This is also a team that is built on defense, behind second year head coach Wes Miller. 

They should have their way with a Cleveland State team that lost 3 starters, who were really their entire offense. The Vikings 3 starters lost combined to average 39.7 ppg (all 3 in double-figures). Cleveland State also lost head coach Dennis Gates and replaced him with Daniyal Robinson, who has no head coaching experience. I think we saw the writing on the wall for this team in their opener, which they lost outright 68-72 to Notre Dame (OH). Give me the Bearcats -22! 

8* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Southern Illinois +9

I'll take my chances with the Salukis catching 9-points on the road against Oklahoma State. I think this Southern Illinois team has a chance to be at or near the top of the MVC this season. It's as deep and as talented as a team the Salukis have had in what is now year four under head coach Bryan Mullins. They got two of the top 3 returning scorers in the MVC back from last year and added in some really nice transfers. Their bench had over 50 points in their opener, which they won 94-63 over Little Rock as a mere 15-point favorite. 

As for Oklahoma State, they didn't impress me at all in their opener, sneaking out a 77-66 win at home against UT-Arlington. Something that really has to raise eyebrows given the Mavericks didn't have a single returning starter from a team that went just 11-18 last season. Keep in mind they only won by 11-points with UT-Arlington shooting just 35.6% from the field. I really think Southern Illinois has a shot in this game. Give me the Salukis +9! 

9* NBA - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR: New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

I'll take my chances with the Pelicans as a slim 1.5-point home favorite against the Bulls on Wednesday. Chicago to me is a good but not great team. Much like they were a year ago, when they beat up on bad teams and struggled against the upper tier of the league. 

I know the Pelicans have lost 3 of their last 4, but I still think this is one of the better teams when at full strength. I like taking good teams coming off a bad loss and that's exactly what we have here with NO fresh off a 122-129 loss at Indiana as a 5-point favorite. Pelicans are also the slightly fresher team, playing just their 3rd game in 5 days, where Chicago is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Give me the Pelicans -1.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money Vegas Insider: Brooklyn Nets -2.5

I'll take my chances with Brooklyn laying 2.5 at home against the Knicks on Wednesday. I'm not surprised at all the Nets have improved after firing Nash and suspending Irving. Nash just wasn't a good fit for the makeup of this team and I think some of the Brooklyn players were getting a little sick of Kyrie. You can just see the difference in the attitude of the guys on the floor in these last few games. 

Speaking of that, Brooklyn has covered 3 straight since the Nash/Irving exodus and have really locked in defensively in these games. They held the Wizards to 86, Hornets to 94 and the Mavs to 96. All on the road. 

I like that trend to continue in this game. I also think this is a geat matchup for the Nets offense, as the Knicks have been really wanting to play uptempo this year. I think playing in the open floor will allow the other guys for Brooklyn to take some of the load of KD and allow the Nets to win this game going away. Give me Brooklyn -2.5! 

9* NCAAB Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Rider Broncs +13.5

I'll take my chances with Rider catching 13.5-points on the road against the Friars. This to me has the making of a potential upset. Providence lost a ton from last year's team that won the Big East regular season title and went on to advance to the Sweet 16. Just 3 players return who were with the program from last year. They lost 4 guys who averaged 10 or more points per game. Rider on the other hand is an experienced team with 4 starters back and should be a serious player for the top spot in the MAAC this year. I just think given all the new faces for Providence, we could see this team struggle a bit to start the year. This is also a Friars team that was extremely fortunate in close games a season ago, which is very hard to sustain from one season to the next. Give me the Broncs +13.5! 

8* NBA Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: San Antonio Spurs +7.5

I'll take my chances with the Spurs as a 7.5-point home dog against the Nuggets. Love the revenge angle for San Antonio in this one. These two teams both played each other in their last game, which was at Denver on Saturday. Nuggets won that won going away 126-101. Never easy to beat a team in back-to-back games with such a short period of time between games. I think it's even harder for the team that won if the first game wasn't competitive. Look for San Antonio to respond with a big effort here and while I'll gladly take the points, I could see them winning this game outright. Give me the Spurs +7.5! 

9* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Chicago Bulls -4

I'll take my chances with Chicago as a 4-point home favorite against the Raptors. Love the revenge spot for the Bulls in this one. These two teams played in Toronto yesterday and the Raptors won that game 113-104. Chicago played without Zach LaVine, as he sat out the first of a back-to-back. He's expected to be back for the rematch. On the flip side, Raptors are down Pascal Siakam right now and it will interesting to see how Fred VanVleet performs in the second of a back-to-back with his bad back. Either way, I like the Bulls to win and cover. Give me Chicago -4! 

8* NCAAB Opening Night ATS SHOCKER: George Mason +12.5

I'll take my chances with George Mason as a 12.5-point road dog against No. 15 ranked Auburn. Until they show me otherwise, the Tigers are a team I'll be looking to fade early on this season. This team lost a lot inside with the departures of Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler. Combined the two averaged 29.3 ppg and 15.5 rpg. There's also a chance Johni Broome will be sidelined with an ankle injury. Allen Flanigan, Jaylin Williams and Jalen Harper are all also questionable to play with an illness. As for the Patriots, I think this is a team that could surprise in the A-10 this year. Give me George Mason +12.5! 

10* NCAAB Opening Night PLAY OF THE YEAR: Ohio Bobcats +5.5

I'll take my chances with Ohio as a 5.5-point road dog against Belmont. This is nowhere close to the Bruins team that went 25-8 last year. Belmont lost a ton from last year's team. They get back their top scorer in Ben Sheppard, but the next 8 top scorers have all departed. This team does recruit and develop talent well, but I expect some early season struggles, especially in the betting market. Ohio technically only gets two starters back from last year, but big man Dwight Wilson III is alo returning from a knee injury that kept him out last year. Expect a very competitive game and one Ohio very well may win going away. Give me the Bobcats +5.5! 

8* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Boston Celtics -4

I'll take my chances with the Celtics laying 4-points on the road against the Knicks. Boston has started to look more like the team we expected to see coming into this year the last few days. The Celtics have won 3 of their last 4 games with the only loss coming by 1-point in Cleveland. 

The Knicks come in off a 106-104 win at Philly last night, but the 76ers were without their two best players in Embiid and Harden. Their only other 3 wins on the season are against 3 bottom feeders in the Pistons, Magic and Hornets. 

I also think with both teams playing here on no rest, we are going to see the depth of the Celtics reign supreme in this game. Give me Boston -4! 

9* NBA Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Charlotte Hornets +11.5

I'll take my chances with the Hornets catching 11.5 points on the road against the Grizzlies. This to me is a good buy-low spot on Chicago. No one is going to want to bet the Hornets in this game. Charlotte has lost and failed to cover in their last two games. Most recently losing by 18-points as a 4.5-point dog in Chicago on Wednesday. Charlotte will also be without Gordon Hayward, Terry Rozier and Cody Martin are also both doubtful. 

I think that's created some value in this line, as we don't need the Hornets to win this game, we just need them to not stink it up. I think if Memphis really wanted to they could win this game by 20+ points. However, I don't see the Grizzlies being all that motivated in this one. Memphis just finished up a 4-game west coast trip on Wednesday, which was also their 6th road game out of their last 7 overall. Not uncommon to see a team come out flat that is coming off a lengthy road trip where they had to change multiple time zones. This is also a Grizzlies team that has been a bit overvalued in the market early on, going just 2-4-1 ATS thru 8 games. Give me the Hornets +11.5! 

8* NBA - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Boston Celtics -7

This line to me screams take Boston and that's exactly what I'm going to do. No one is going to want to lay this kind of number with the Celtics against the Bulls given how these two team are playing. Chicago has won their last two games and covered in convincing fashion. The Bulls won 108-99 at Brooklyn as a 2-point dog and then destroyed Charlotte 106-88 as a mere 4.5-point home favorite. Boston on the other hand has lost 3 of their last 4 and gone just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. 

Maybe I'm putting a little too much faith in the Celtics, but this is a game I think they step up and deliver one of their better performances. This is too good a team to keep playing as poorly as they have. Boston also figures to come into this game with a little extra given it's Chicago, as the Bulls laid it on them about 10 days ago in a 120-102 win in Chicago. 

This is also not a great scheduling spot for the Bulls, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 5th game in the last 8 days. I could definitely see this being a flat spot for them. Give me the Celtics -7! 

8* NBA Sharp Money ATS MASSACRE: Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5

I'll take my chances with Oklahoma City as a 6.5-point home dog against the Nuggets. The Thunder have been a massive BET ON team to start out the 2022-23 season. OKC expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, comes in at 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS. All 4 of those wins coming in their last 4 games. Until the public gets on board and forces the books to start adjusting the numbers, there's no reason not to keep betting this team. 

These two teams played once already this season in Denver and while the Nuggets won that game, they did so by a final score of just 122-117. OKC got the cover as a 8.5-point dog. Further backing how the books have not adjusted on this Thunder team, there's only been a 2-point adjustment in the line based off the first meeting and that's with Denver playing the first game at home and now on the road, where we would expect to see closer to a 5-point swing. 

Denver is just 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road this season, so I'm not sure why they are getting so much lover here. Nuggets also not performing all that great, as they are only scoring 1.2 points above expected given what their opponents have allowed and are giving up 4.1 ppg more than what their opponents typically score. Give me the Thunder +6.5! 

8* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT: Portland Trail Blazers +3.5

I'll take my chances with the Blazers as a 3.5-point home dog against the Grizzlies on Wednesday. I'm not so sure Portland shouldn't be favored in this game. Yes, the Blazers are down star point guard Damian Lillard, but there's a lot of talent on this team and they know how to get the job done without Lillard after all the time he misses last season. Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant and Jusuf Nurkic are all capable of carrying the load offensively. At the same time, I think Memphis is a team that came into this season overpriced and it's shown in the Grizzlies start to the season. Memphis is just 4-3 SU and 2-4-1 ATS. This is also a banged up Memphis team, that is still without Jaren Jackson Jr. They could also be down both Steven Adams and Desmond Bane, who are both questionable. Give me the Blazers +3.5! 

9* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Charlotte Hornets +5.5

I will gladly take my chances with the Hornets as a 5.5-point road dog against the Bulls on Wednesday. Good spot here to fade Chicago, as the Bulls will be on no rest after last night's 108-99 road win over the Nets. Bulls have been pretty cautious with LaVine early on and I believe there's a good chance he sits in the second of a back-to-back. Chicago is also without Drummond, who was playing extremely well early on and could also be without one of their better reserves in Coby White. Charlotte has exceeded expectations without LaMelo Ball and I just feel they are still a bit undervalued. Hornets are coming of a 108-115 loss at home to the Kings that has to have them hungry to get back on the floor, as Charlotte somehow lost the game despite them shooting 51.2% from the field and Sacramento only connecting on 43.5% of their attempts. Give me the Hornets +5.5! 

9* NBA - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Sacramento Kings +6.5

I'll gladly take my chances with the Kings as a 6.5-point road dog against the Heat on Wednesday. Great spot here to fade Miami, who will be playing on no rest after a thrilling 116-109 win at home over the Warriors last night. A game in which the Heat had to rally from way down in the 4th quarter to win (outscored GS 30-15 in the 4th). On the flip side, Kings come in having won 2 in a row and this is a talented young team that I feel is being undervalued right now with their 2-4 SU record. Kings have proven that, covering 4 of their last 5. I not only like them to keep this close, but I give them a great shot here of winning outright. Give me Sacramento +6.5! 

8* NBA - Smart Money ATS MASSACRE: New York Knicks -1.5

I will gladly take my chances with the Knicks as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Hawks on Wednesday. I have really liked what I've seen out of New York, but feel they are flying a bit under the radar with their mere 3-3 start to the season. Thing is, the Knicks 3 losses have all come on the road and all against some of the better teams in the league in Memphis, Milwaukee and Cleveland. New York should also be fresh here playing on a full 2 days rest, where Atlanta has to be running on fumes playing their fifth road game in the last 8 days. Give me the Knicks -1.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Minnesota Timberwolves +5.5

I'll take my chances with the Timberwolves as a 5.5-point road dog against the Suns. This will be the second game of Tuesday's double-header on TNT. I believe because this is going to be a heavily bet game, the books have inflated the number on Phoenix to where there's just too much value to pass up on Minnesota. 

Suns come in having won and covered each of their last 4 games. The offense has really carried them during this win streak, as they come in having shot 50% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games. Thing is, that hot shooting has come against some bad defensive teams or in the case of the Pelicans a team missing some of their best players. 

As expected, Minnesota's defense has greatly improved with the addition of Rudy Gobert. Timberwolves are currently ranked No. 4 in the league in defensive efficiency. Portland is the only team Phoenix has played that currently ranks in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. Blazers held Phoenix to just 113 points and a season-worst 45.7% shooting. 

The other big thing here is the Suns are down one of their best players in Deandre Ayton, who missed their last game against the Rockets and is expected to be out at least a week. His absence is really going to be felt in this matchup with Gobert on the other side. I like the Timberwolves to not only cover, but to win outright. Give me Minnesota +5.5! 

9* NBA No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Washington Wizards +8.5 

I'll take my chances with the Wizards as a 8.5-point road dog against the Celtics. Boston is getting way too much respect from the books right now. The Celtics are not playing great basketball right now. In their last two games they have lost 102-120 at Chicago and 123-132 at home to the Cavs. This is also a team that has just 1 win on the season by more than the spread here and that was their 11-point win against the 76ers in the opener. 

The big thing that is holding back the Celtics is their defense. Boston has allowed 120+ points in each of their last 3 games. Boston is giving up 118.6 ppg on 48.4% shooting for the season. That spikes to 124.5 ppg and 50.6% at home, which is shocking. 

Wizards are going to be up for a shot at the defending Eastern Conference champs and it's a good buy-low spot on Washington after Friday's ugly 117-127 home loss to the Hornets as a 5-point favorite. Give me the Wizards +8.5! 

10* NBA  Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER: Utah Jazz +9

I will gladly take the Jazz as a 9-point road dog against the Nuggets tonight. Utah has arguably been the most undervalued team in the league to start the season. Everyone thought the Jazz were in full on tank mode, yet they have come out and gone 4-1 in their first 5 games, with 3 of those wins coming as dogs of 6.5 or more. That includes a 123-102 win at home over these Nuggets to open the season. 

I'm sure Denver hasn't forgot about that game, but 9 points is way too many for them to be laying in this spot. The Nuggets just gave a big effort in a prime time game against the Lakers on Wednesday. 

Utah is getting great contributions across the board and maybe the most surprising thing with this team is how they are defending. The Jazz are sitting 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency right now. Give me Utah +9! 

9* NBA No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: New York Knicks +6.5

I will gladly take my chances with the Knicks as a 6.5-point road dog against the Bucks on Friday. I've really liked what I've seen out of New York to start this new season. They are 3-1 with their only loss coming in OT at Memphis in the season opener. Jalen Brunson has been everything they hoped for and more, as he finally gives them a calming presence when the game is on the line in the 4th quarter. Got to believe the Knicks will be highly motivated here against the Bucks. 

Milwaukee is off to a 3-0 start and have covered each of the first 3 games. The books aren't going to let this team keep covering. They are going to keep inflating the number and this line definitely feels like it's at least a couple points too high. 

It's been all Giannis early on for the Bucks. The Greek Freak has scored 40+ in each of the last two games and is averaging 36.0 ppg on the season. The next best scorer on the team is Bobby Portis at just 14.7 ppg. It's not an efficient way to win and the Bucks come in ranked 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Knicks are Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Give me New York +6.5! 

9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Philadelphia 76ers +1.5

I'll take my chances with the 76ers as a 1.5-point road dog in Friday's road rematch against the Raptors. These two teams played in Toronto on Wednesday and the Raptors were able to prevail 119-109. The loss dropped Philly to 1-4 on the season. It's also a pretty big adjustment given they were just a 2-point road favorite in the game on Wednesday. 

It's never easy beating a team in the NBA twice in a row, especially when it's the last team you faced. Philly should be the more motivated team and if they can just turn up the defensive intensity a few notches, they should be able to win this game, as Toronto really doesn't have the bigs to contain Embiid. 

Raptors are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 at home off a win by 10 or more, while the 76ers are 8-2 ATS last 10 off an upset loss by 10 or more as a favorite. Give me the 76ers +1.5! 

9* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Nets/Mavs OVER 225

I'll take my chances with the OVER 225 in Thursday's matchup between the Nets and Mavs. Given what we have seen out of Dallas offensively and the struggles Brooklyn is having on the defensive end I'm shocked this total isn't the 230s. 

The Mavs ranked No. 1 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 119.1 points per 100 possessions. They will be up against a Brooklyn defense that is 26th in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing 115.6 points per 100 possessions. The only other team Dallas has faced in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency is the Grizzlies who are 29th at 116.6. The Mavs put up 137 points on Memphis. On top of all that, you have to wonder just how much juice the Brooklyn defense will have playing in the second leg of a back-to-back after an even bigger game last night at Milwaukee. 

I know the Mavs defense has played well, but I think it can be difficult to bring that energy defensively when you are scoring at such an easy clip on the other side. Brooklyn also has two of the best scorers in the game in Durant and Irving. If the Nets simply hit their season average of 110.0 ppg, I think this game flies by the number. Give me the OVER 225! 

9* NBA Situational ATS NO-BRAINER: Utah Jazz -6.5

I will gladly take my chances with Utah laying a mere 6.5-points at home against the Rockets. This might seem like a bad line, given these two teams just played in Houston on Monday and the Rockets won that meeting 114-108 as a 2.5-point dog. Thing is, that was an awful spot for Utah, as they were playing on no rest and their 3rd game in 4 nights. Not to mention the game the night before against the Pelicans went to OT. Prior to winning that game, the Rockets were 0-3 without a single cover and had lost each of those 3 games by at least 7 points. Utah prior to the loss was a perfect 3-0, absolutely destroying the spread. They won by 21 as a 6.5-point dog against the Nuggets, by 6 as a 8-point dog at Minnesota and by 1 as a 8 point dog at New Orleans. Give me the Jazz -6.5! 

10* NBA Over/Under PLAY OF THE MONTH: Knicks/Hornets OVER 224

I love the OVER 224 in Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Hornets. I'm shocked the total here isn't in the 230s. Both these teams are looking to play fast early on. Charlotte comes in ranked 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.6 and New York is 12th at 101.9. Not only are these to pushing the tempo, they are two of the most efficient offensive teams. Charlotte ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency at 116.7 points per 100 possessions and the Knicks are 89th at 112.8 points per 100 possessions. Each of the Hornets 3 games have seen a combined score of 231 or more points, while the Knicks are seeing an average combined score of 226.7 points thru their first 3 games. Give me the OVER 224! 

8* NBA - Public Money ATS SLAUGHTER: Orlando Magic +8.5

I'll take my chances with the Magic as a 8.5-point road dog against the Cavs. Orlando comes into this game getting zero love from the books. The Magic are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS to start the season. It hasn't been as bad as the records would suggest. Orlando was a 3.5-point dog in a 4-point loss at Detroit, were a 9-point dog in a 10-point loss at Atlanta. They also lost by just 6 as a 8.5-point dog at home against the Celtics. The only bad loss was a 13-point setback at New York and they only trailed by 6 in that game with around 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. Not saying the Magic will win this game, but I like them to keep it close against a Cavs team that could be a little over-confident after two blowout wins. Cleveland could also be looking ahead to Friday's huge matchup at Boston. Give me the Magic +8.5! 

9* NBA - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Detroit Pistons +5.5

I'll take my chances with the Pistons as a 5.5-point road dog against the Wizards. I like Detroit to come out with a big effort here against Washington. The Pistons have lost two straight since winning their opener. One of those was an ugly 24-point loss at New York, where the Knicks couldn't miss. The other was on the second of a back-to-back against the Pacers, where Detroit couldn't buy a basket. Having had the last two days off, I really like the Pistons to play well in this spot. 

Washington is 2-1, but both wins came down to the wire. The Wizards snuck out a 114-107 win at Indiana in their opener and then barely held on for a 102-100 win at home against the Bulls. It's also worth pointing out that 3 of the 4 games between these two teams last year were decided by 3 points or less. Give me the Pistons +5.5! 

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Toronto Raptors +3.5

I'll gladly take my chances with the Raptors as a 3.5-point road dog against Miami on Monday. These two teams just played each other in Miami on Saturday, so this is a true rematch. The Heat won that first meeting on their home floor 112-109, but it was Toronto that rallied from a big 1st half deficit to make a game of it. I look for the Raptors to be the much more motivated team in the rematch. Miami is just 18-32 (36%) ATS in their last 50 home games off a win by 3-points or less. Going back to last season, Toronto is 18-8 ATS last 26 off a SU loss. Give me the Raptors +3.5! 

9* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Pelicans/Jazz OVER 229.5

I'll take my chances with the OVER 229.5 in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Pelicans and Jazz. New Orleans has been one of the best offensive teams in the early going. The Pelicans are No. 2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, trailing only the Celtics. They are also No. 7 in the NBA in pace of play. This is not a huge surprise given they added the likes of Zion Williamson. The big surprise is what we have seen out of Utah in two games. The Jazz were expected to be in full on tank mode this season, yet they have come out and won their first two games, scoring 123 at home against the Nuggets and 132 on the road against the T-Wolves. Utah is No. 4 in the NBA in offensive efficiency and No. 13 in pace of play. Look for both teams to hit the 120 mark in this one. Give me the OVER 229.5! 

9* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: Orlando Magic +8.5

I'll take chances with the Magic as a 8.5-point dog at Atlanta on Friday. Orlando just missed out on a cover in their season opener, losing 109-113 at Detroit as a 4-point dog. I thought there was a lot of positives to take for the Magic in that game. Most notably the play of rookie Pablo Banchero, who had 27 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 blocks. I feel like the Magic have a very underrated starting 5 with Banchero, Suggs, Wagner, Carter Jr and Ross. Hawks are a team I'll be looking to bad, as I really like their backcourt duo of Young and Murray. With that said, I think the price here is a little steep. Atlanta got 43 points and 24 assists from Young and Murray in their opener and only won that game by 10. They led by just 4 going into the 4th quarter. Give me the Magic +8.5!

10* NBA Sharp Money VEGAS INSIDER: Detroit Pistons +6.5

I will take my chances with the Pistons as a 6.5-point road dog against the Knicks on Friday. I really like the makeup of this Detroit team. We saw them go on an ATS tear last year and while they won't cover at that same clip, this to me feels like a few too many given the tough spot for the Knicks. New York is coming off a 112-115 OT loss at Memphis on Wednesday, where they had to use a ton of energy to rally from a 19-point deficit. I look for the Knicks to come out a bit flat against a young and hungry Pistons team. Give me Detroit +6.5! 

9* NBA - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Washington Wizards +1

We played on the Bulls +7 in their 116-108 upset win on the road against the Heat. It was an impressive win for Chicago, who is starting the season without Lonzo Bal and ended up not having Zach LaVine. We know Ball won't go in this one and chances are Ball will sit again, as they try to get his knee right. I think the big upset win has the Bulls a bit overvalued coming into this game against a very underrated Wizards team, who opened their season with a 114-107 road win over the Pacers. Washington has a very underrated 1-2-3 punch with Beal, Porzingis and Kuzma. Give me the Wizards +1! 

9* NBA - No Doubt ATS SLAUGHTER: Philadelphia 76ers -3.5

I will gladly take my chances with the 76ers covering as a 3.5-point home favorite against the Bucks. I really like this spot with Philly. A lot of people aren't going to feel good about laying a short number with the 76ers after Tuesday's 117-126 loss at Boston. I'm actually more inclined to back Philly because of how that game against the Celtics played out. 

You can't overreact to teams getting worked by Boston this year. The Celtics to me are in a class of their own in the Eastern Conference. I know some will lump this Milwaukee team in there with Boston, but this is not a team that is overly concerned about the regular-season. The Bucks are also without Khris Middleton for a few weeks to start the season, as well as one of their top reserves in Pat Connaughton. 

Getting back to the 76ers, I did think there were some positives to take in that loss to the Celtics. James Harden looks to be more in line with the player he was in Houston than the overweight and sloppy Harden we got the last couple years with Brooklyn and Philly. 

The 76ers have a legit 1-2-3 scoring punch with Harden, Embiid and Maxey. I also think they are a better 3-point shooting team than what we saw in the opener with them going 13-34 (38.2%) from deep. I really like this team to bounce back with a big effort at home and to easily cover this spread. Give me the 76ers -3.5! 

9* NBA Sharp Money NO-BRAINER: Chicago Bulls +7

I will take my chances with the Bulls as a 7-point road dog at Miami in Wednesday's season opener for these two teams. I just don't understand the lack of respect this Chicago team is getting coming into this season. Everyone seems to forget how good this team was to start out last year before injuries derailed their season. While they will be without one of their better players in Lonzo Ball to start the season, they still got a pretty good 1-2 punch with LaVine and DeRozan. Everyone likes this Miami team after coming up just short of the NBA Finals last year and finishing the regular-season with the best record in the Eastern Conference. I don't know that they are a Top 4 team in the East this year. I think they are clearly a step behind the Bucks and Celtics and I could easily see them finishing behind both the Nets and 76ers. To me this team is a bit overvalued coming into this season and it's showing in this line. Give me the Bulls +7! 

10* NBA - Opening Night VEGAS INSIDER: Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5

I really like the Cavs as a 2.5-point underdog in Wednesday's season opener at the Raptors. This is nothing against Toronto, who I think has a tendency to be undervalued, I just am really high on this Cleveland team coming into this season. Addition of Donovan Mitchell gives the Cavs one of the more underrated starting fives in the league with him paired alongside Darius Garland, Caris LaVert, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. I really look for the size of Mobley and Allen to be huge in this game, as the Raptors are not a very big team with Pascal Siakam listed as the starting center on the depth chart. There will be no easy buckets for Toronto in this game and Cleveland should be able to abuse them on the other side down low. As long as the Raptors don't go crazy from behind the 3-point line, the Cavs should win here rather easily. Give me Cleveland +2.5! 

8* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR: Wizards/Pacers UNDER 228

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 228 in Wednesday's season opener between the Wizards and Pacers. I think we are seeing a bit of an inflated total here, as people remember how bad this Indiana team was defensively to close out last year. The big reason for that was the loss of their best defensive player, Myles Turner. Having him back instantly makes them better on that side of the ball. As for the Wizards, they got some nice offensive pieces, but being better defensively is a huge priority for this team under head coach Wes Unseld Jr. The defensive numbers weren't great in Unseld's first year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. Look for this one to stay under the mark. Give me the UNDER 2228.5!

9* NBA - Opening Night VEGAS INSIDER: 76ers/Celtics OVER 216

I don't think the total is near enough for this opening night matchup between the Celtics and 76ers. I'll gladly take my chances with these two going over 216. I just think after watching Boston make a run to the NBA Finals last year on the coattails of their defense, their defense is a bit overvalued coming into the 2022-23 season. That's because they are missing big man Robert Williams, who is the guy that made their defense so good. His ability to protect the rim, allowed the other guys to really close out aggressively on the 3-point shot. 

Not only are they missing him, but they are facing one of the most skilled big men in the league in Joel Embiid. I don't think Boston will have an answer for him. I also think James Harden could be in for a big bounce back season. Harden looks to be in the best shape he's been in years. Philly has two other guys who can light it up in Maxey and Harris. This should be one of the best offenses in the league. 

There's rumors that Boston will be looking to push the pace a little more and it's not like they don't have the guys who can excel in transition. They got two elite scorers in Tatum and Brown. I also think the addition of Brogdon will help the offense. I don't think Philly is a team they want to attack in the half court. Look for this to easily get into the 220s. Give me the OVER 216! 

Warriors/Celtics MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors +4) 

I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 4-point dog in Game 6 of the NBA Finals. I know it's Boston that is facing elimination at home, but my money is on Golden State to finish off this thing tonight and not let it go to a Game 7. 

I thought it was really impressive how the Warriors were able to win Game 5 without a great offensive night from Steph Curry, who scored just 16 points on 7 of 22 shooting (0 for 9 on 3-pointers). It speaks volumes to just how good this Golden State defense has been. Boston is struggling to get anything out of their role players and continue to make it tough for both Tatum and Brown to get going. 

I look for Curry to bounce back in a big way tonight and more of the same from the Warriors defense. Give me Golden State +4! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Celtics/Warriors Game 5 VEGAS INSIDER (Warriors -3.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 3.5-point home favorite in Game 5 at home. Golden State evened up the series at 2-2 behind an epic performance from Steph Curry in Friday's 107-97 win at Boston in Game 4. 

Warriors did lose Game 1 at home after being up 12 going into the 4th quarter, but they came back and dominated Game 2 at home 107-88. I just have a lot more trust in Golden State. Curry is without question the best player on the floor and we can expect a lot more out of the other guys at home. Give me the Warriors -3.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Warriors/Celtics MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors +4) 

I'll take my chances with Golden State at +4 in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. This feels like a must-win for the Warriors with Boston up 2-1 after Tuesday's 116-100 win in Game 3. The Celtics came out on fire in Game 3 and it really felt like they should be up 20+ in the 1st Half. Even then Golden State was able to rally back in the 3rd quarter. They just didn't have enough gas in the tank to finish it off. 

Celtics got 27 from Brown, 26 from Tatum and 24 from Smart. I don't see them getting that kind of all-around production from those 3 again in Game 4. On the flip side, we know Curry is going to be great. All we need is for the bench to give them more than the 18 points they scored in Game 3. Mainly we need more out of Poole and I think he delivers. I'll take the points for insurance, but I like the Warriors to win this game outright. Give me Golden State +4! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Warriors/Celtics Game 3 MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors +3.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 3.5-point road dog in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. If not for that unbelievable shot making in Game 1 by Boston, this series would be 2-0 in favor of Golden State. Keep in mind the Warriors were up double-digits going into that 4th quarter of Game 1. They won Game 2 by by 19. 

Golden State to me has looked like the better team for 7 of the 8 quarters and that's with them getting almost nothing out of Klay Thompson. I just feel as long as Steph Curry continues to play at the level he's played in the first two games, it's going to be a tall task for Boston to win this series. 

The other big thing that doesn't get quite the attention that it deserves is the Warriors defense. After hitting 21 3-pointers (9 in the 4th quarter) of Game 1, Boston still managed to make 15 in Game 2, yet were only able to score 88 points. Give me the Warriors +3.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10(Scale of 1-10)

Celtics/Warriors MAX Unit Top Play (Warriors -4) 

I backed Golden State in Game 1 and took it on the chin. Warriors were up by as many 15 in the 3rd quarter and led by 12 going into the 4th quarter. The Celtics then played what has to be one of the greatest 4th quarters by a single team in NBA Finals history. 

Boston simply couldn't miss. They started the quarter making 7 straight 3's and ended up 9 for 11 when it was all said and done. For the game the Celtics shot 21-41 (51.2%) from behind the 3-pt line. I don't see them putting up anything close to those kind of numbers in Game 2. 

I get they won that game without Tatum putting up huge offensive numbers, but he still had a big impact with 13 assists. He had a hand in close to 40 points. He might score a few more in Game 2, but his assists will likely go way down. 

Warriors got a great game from Curry and Wiggins, but no one else really did much. Draymond didn't have his normal impact, Thompson could never get it going and Jordan Poole was basically a  no show. 

This is also a do or die moment for Golden State. They lose this game and go down 0-2 with 3 of the next 4 in Boston, it's all but over. My money is on the Warriors not letting that happen. Give me Golden State -4! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Celtics/Warriors Game 1 MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors -3.5)

Give me Golden State -3.5 at home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Sure, Boston had the tougher road to the Finals, but that doesn't mean that makes them more ready for this series. If anything, I think it's an advantage for Golden State. Boston has just played two grueling 7-game series against the Bucks and Heat. 

I also think the Warriors are an entire different beast than what the Celtics have seen so far in these playoffs. Brooklyn was not a good defensive team. Milwaukee and Miami were both really good defensively, but were so reliant on one guy to carry them offensively. Golden State is a very good defensive team and in my opinion are the hardest team in the NBA to defend. I think this line should be closer to 5. Give me the Warriors -3.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Celtics/Heat Game 7 MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat +2.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Heat at +2.5 at home in Game 7. The entire outlook of this series shifted in Game 6 when Jimmy Butler returned to form. After knee inflammation really limited him in Game 3 and Game 4, Butler put on a show in Game 6 with a 47-point performance on the road facing elimination. Butler also had 9 rebounds and 8 assists. He looked like a different guy and with him playing at that level, I like the Heat to win this game and return to the NBA Finals. Give me the Heat +2.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Heat/Celtics Game 6 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 201.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 201.5 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. With Jimmy Butler on one leg, Tyler Herro out with a hamstring injury and Kyle Lowry playing at less than 100%, the Heat just don't have the offensive fire-power to score 100 points against one of the best defenses in the NBA. Miami scored just 82 points in Game 4 at Boston and 80 in Game 5 at home. 

I have a hard time seeing the Heat going off on the road in Game 6. With that said, Miami is not going to lay down. The Heat are going to do whatever they can to be competitive and there only way of being competitive is to make this game as ugly as possible and hope the Celtics miss some shots. Even so, Boston shot a solid 47% from the field in Game 5 and still only managed to score 93 points. Getting to 100 figures to be a struggle for both teams tonight. Give me the UNDER 201.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs +7) 

I'll take my chances with the Mavs as a 7-pt dog at Golden State in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. I think the assumption is that the Warriors didn't have the right mindset up 3-0 in Game 4. Everyone just says that was Dallas' game to get. 

I get it, but you also got to look at the whole picture. Mavs got blown out in Game 1, which was to be expected coming off a Game 7 win over the Suns after trailing in that series 2-3. They had a HUGE lead and blew it in Game 2 and in Game 3 half their team couldn't buy a shot and they still only lost by 9. 

Coming back from a 3-0 deficit has never been done. I don't think it happens here, but I do think Dallas at the very least is going to make a game of it. Doncic, not Curry, is the best player on the floor. If his teammates can knock down a few 3's, they could definitely win this game. Give me the Mavs +7! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 5) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 204) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 204 in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Heat. I always like to look to the UNDER in a series when it's tied 2-2 going into a Game 5. It's not quite the same as a Game 7, but it has that feel to it, where both teams are pulling out all the stops to go up 3-2 in what is now a best of 3 series. 

We finally saw a defensive game in Game 4, after each of the first 3 games went OVER the total. The two combined for just 184 points in Game 4. I see no reason not to expect more of the same. Both teams are dealing with big injuries. Boston is likely without Smart and Heat could be playing without both Lowry and Herro. Either way, these two teams know how they want to defend the opposition. Give me the UNDER 204! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conf Finals (Game 4) MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs PK) 

I'll take my chances with the Mavs at a pick'em at home in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals. This series might be over with Golden State up 3-0, but that doesn't mean Dallas isn't going to go down without a fight. 

Mavs really should have won Game 2 at Golden State, as they were up big before a 2nd half collapse. They also have to feel like they beat themselves in Game 3 with the inability of their role players like Finney-Smith, Bullock and Kleber to hit shots. Those 3 were a combined 2 for 17 from behind the 3-point line. Look for those guys to shoot a lot better and for the Mavs to find a way to win this game and at the least extend this thing to a Game 5 on Thursday. Give me the Mavs PK! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 4) MAX UNIT Top Play (Celtics -6.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the Celtics as a 6.5-point home favorite in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. This series has seen the Heat win Game 1 by 9, Boston win Game 2 by 25 and Miami take Game 3 by 6. 

Celtics couldn't have played much worse in Game 3 and still almost pulled it off. Boston got outscored 18-31 in the 1st period and fell behind by as many as 26 in the 1st half. Celtics were able to make a game of it, despite getting next to nothing out of Tatum and them having an uncharacteristic 23 turnovers. 

The other big thing is the health of Miami. Jimmy Butler left in the 1st half and did not return with a knee injury. Tyler Herro also played 20 mins battling a groin injury. Heat's offense scored just 23, 25 and 21 over the final 3 quarters. Give me the Celtics -6.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs -2.5)

I'll take my chances with the Mavs -2.5 in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. It's do or die for Dallas after losing the first 2 games in Golden State. While they weren't all that competitive in Game 1, that was to be expected coming off that Game 7 against the Suns.

They really should have won Game 2, as they jumped out to a huge lead before falling apart in the 2nd Half. As tough as that loss was to swallow, I think it did give this Mavs team some confidence that they can hang with this Warriors team. 

Golden State has had a problem of just going thru the motions in these playoffs and I think they struggle to match the intensity of the Mavs in Game 3 on the road. Give me the Mavs -2.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conf Finals (Game 3) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 207.5) 

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. It's been a a lot higher scoring series so far. Both Game 1 and Game 2 went OVER the total. They went for 225 with a total of 203.5 in Game 1 and for 229 with a total of 206 in Game 2. 

Why go UNDER in Game 3? This to me is when the series really start to flip to the defenses having the edge. Both teams are now very familiar with what both teams want to do and the adjustments they make when they try to take something away. 

Not only that, but I think we see the defense turned up a notch anytime a series is tied. Both teams are going to be extremely motivated to take a 2-1 series lead. We finally get the defensive showdown we thought we would see from the start. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conf Finals (Game 2) MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors -6) 

We cashed on the Warriors in Game 1 and will fire right back with Golden State at -6 in Game 2. I'm a huge Doncic fan and I expect him to play better than he did in Game 1. I just don't think he's going to get enough help from his role players on the road to keep this close. Doncic could score 40+ and the Mavs could still lose by double-digits. Golden State has been the best team in the West when healthy and I really don't see this series going all that long. Give me the Warriors -6! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2) MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 208)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 208 in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. A lot of people were on the UNDER in Game 1 and got burned as that went well past the total of 203.5 with the game finishing at 225. 

We cashed the Heat -1.5 in that one, but had I been forced to play the total I would have leaned to the OVER. I just didn't think Boston would be at their best defensively coming off back-to-back elimination wins with just one day off from their Game 7 win against the Bucks. Not only that, but they were without two of their better defenders in Marcus Smart and Al Horford. 

Now it's time to look to the UNDER with the books jumping this total up to 208. Boston should be much better defensively in Game 2. While Horford is still out, Smart has been upgraded to probable. Having the DPOY on the floor is a big deal. It's also going to help having seen what Miami wants to do offensively. Plus, it's unlikely the Heat play as well offensively (shot 49% from the field and got 41 points from Jimmy Butler). Give me the UNDER 208! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Western Conference Finals MAX UNIT Top Play (Warriors -4.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Warriors as a 4.5-point home favorite in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State should be a bigger favorite here. Not only are the Warriors the better team, but this is a really tough spot for the Mavs, who are coming off back-to-back wins in elimination games against the Suns.

Very similar scenario to what we saw last night in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Celtics just ran out of gas and just didn't have that killer instinct on the defensive side as they did avoiding elimination in Games 6 and 7 vs the Bucks. Warriors haven't played in 4 days and are a perfect 6-0 at home in the playoffs so far. Give me Golden State -4.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Eastern Conference Finals MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat -1.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Heat as a slim -1.5 home favorite against the Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. I think Miami continues to get disrespected. Most are picking the Celtics in this series, despite the fact that the Heat, the No. 1 seed in the East, has done exactly what they are suppose to do so far in the playoffs. Miami beat the Hawks in 5 in the 1st round and just disposed of the 76ers in 6 to get here. 

All 3 of their playoffs losses have come on the road. They are 6-0 at home and just one of those wins at home came by fewer than 9 points. The other big thing besides homecourt is the Celtics figure to have a bit of a letdown here. Boston just won back-to-back elimination games, with the Game 7 clincher against the Bucks coming just 2 days ago. Give me the Heat -1.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

Mavericks/Suns Game 7 Vegas Insider (Mavs +6.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the Mavs as a 6.5-point dog in Game 7 against the Suns. I love Dallas to at the very least make a game of this and give them close to 50/50 shot at winning the game outright. Suns are the better team, but the Mavs have the best player in Doncic. Phoenix has had no answer for him and I think they may have made a big mistake talking trash to Doncic earlier in this series. The other big story in this series is the Mavs defense on Chris Paul. After averaging 22 and 11 in their 1st round series with the Pelicans, he's averaging a mere 14 and 6. He's scored just 25 points combined in the last 3 games of this series. Give me the Mavs +6.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

Bucks/Celtics Game 7 ATS No-Brainer (Bucks +5.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Bucks getting 5.5 in Game 7 on the road against the Celtics. While Boston avoided elimination with a 108-95 win at Milwaukee in Game 6, no team has been able to win back-to-back games in this series. The underdog has covered 5 of the 6 games to this point. Boston might have the better team, but Milwaukee has the best player in Antetokounmpo. Boston has no answer for him. He's averaging 40 ppg over the last 4 games of the series. I also like Milwaukee as a team in this spot, as they aren't going to be overcome by the moment. Give me the Bucks +5.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Bucks -1.5) 

I'll take my chances with the Bucks as a slim 1.5-point home favorite. Milwaukee 100% stole Game 5. This is a championship team that knows how to close out a series. They also understand how big this game is for them. Last thing they want is to have to go back to Boston for Game 7. With that said, the pressure is really on the Celtics to avoid elimination. Not only that, but you have to wonder how this team is dealing with their collapse in Game 5. Give me the Bucks -1.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs MAX UNIT Top Play (76ers -2) 

I will gladly take my chances with the 76ers as a slim 2-point home favorite in Game 6 against the Heat. This series has been dominated by the home team. The home team has won and covered each of the 5 games up to this point and most of them have been blowouts. The smallest margin of victory so far is 8-points. 

It's just like the role players and even the stars are just playing at a different level at home compared to on the road. I see no reason to think that trend won't continue in Game 6. No question the 76ers will be the more motivated team facing elimination. Miami could struggle to find that killer instinct coming off a 35-point win and knowing they got Game 7 at home. Give me the 76ers -2! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 214.5) 

I will take my chances with the UNDER 214.5 in Game 5 between the Celtics and Bucks. I always lean UNDER in Game 5 when a series is tied 2-2, as it just has that Game 7 feel to it with both teams desperately wanting to get a win to take control of the series. We saw the UNDER cash in this spot in both games last night. 

The two teams did go OVER the total in Game 4, but note that was the first time this entire postseason that a game involving the Bucks finished OVER the total. UNDER is 8-1. I just think that given what's at stake, it's going to be hard for both teams to get to 100 points and I wouldn't be shocked if neither team did. Give me the UNDER 214.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Heat -3) 

I will gladly take my chances with Miami as a mere 3-point home favorite in Game 5. Philly got Embiid back in Game 3 at home and were able to feed off his energy in a 99-79 win. In Game 4, the Heat just couldn't buy an outside shot (7 of 35, 20%), while James Harden caught fire. Maybe that was a turning point for Harden. I don't think it was. I have zero faith in him being anything close to that same guy in Game 5. 

I see a much more focused and energized Miami team on their home floor and you have to wonder if there won't be a little bit of letdown for the 76ers. Philly's backs were firmly against the wall. They lose either of those games at home and this series was all but over. Either way, I just feel the Heat are the better team and this is just too good a price to pass up. Give me Miami -3! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER (Under 212) 

We just keep playing the UNDER in the Bucks playoff games and will continue to do so as long as the books keep giving us this value. The UNDER is a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoffs games (5-0 in Bulls series and now 3-0 in this series). 

I've said it multiple times playing the UNDER in this series that I just think these two teams are so good defensively that it's going to be a struggle for them to get to 100 points. We have seen each team fail to score 90 in a game this series. We also saw a mere 195 points scored in Game 2 with both teams shooting close to 47% from the field. Give me the UNDER 212! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER (Heat +2) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the Heat as a 2-point road dog in Game 3 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup with the 76ers. Miami really made easy work of Philly in the first two games, winning Game 1 by a score of 106-92 and then Game 2 by a score of 119-103. 

It felt like this series was all but over with Embiid sidelined, but then he made a surprising return for Game 3. I don't think there's any question it gave Philly a lift, but that was also a do or die situation, as they had to avoid going down 0-3. 

Having Embiid back is big, but he's far from the MVP candidate we saw dominate the regular season. I still have a lot of the same concerns with the 76ers. Can they get another 21 points from Danny Green? Can Green and Maxey replicate their crazy shooting from outside (combined 12 of 15 from 3-point)? I don't think so. My money is on the Heat to retake their claim on this series and go up 3-1. Give me Miami +2! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Suns -1.5)

I will gladly take my chances with the Suns as a slim -1.5 road favorite in Game 4 of their Western Conference Semifinal matchup with the Mavs. After dominating the first two games at home to take a 2-0 lead, Dallas responded with a 103-94 win in Game 3. Not a big surprise (I was on the Mavs) given the situation. 

Suns got a little complacent after those first two games and the Mavs put everything on the line with their backs against the wall. I still think Phoenix is hands down the better team. In Game 3, Chris Paul and Devin Booker only combined for 30 points and had a combined 12 turnovers. Yet the Suns only lost by 9. My money is on the Sun to bounce back with a much better showing this afternoon. Give me Phoenix -1.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Under 213)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 213 in Game 3 between the Bucks and Celtics. The UNDER has cashed in each of the first two games of this series and is now a perfect 7-0 in Milwaukee's 7 playoff games. 

These are two of the best defensive teams in the league. With the series tied at 1-1, you got to think both of these teams are going to be locked in on the defensive side of the ball. Keep in mind we saw both teams shoot close to 47% in Game 2 and yet they still only combined for 195 points. I've said it in each of the first two games. It's going to be a struggle for both teams to hit that 100 point mark. Give me the UNDER 213! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Mavs PK) 

I'll take my chances with the Mavs at a pick'em at home in Game 3 against the Suns. Most will just assume Phoenix will keep rolling after watching them win and cover both games on their home floor to start the series. 

I don't think that will be the case. Dallas has shown they can hang around with this team for a good portion of the game. They just haven't got any help from their role players. It's been all Doncic. I don't think the Suns are going to have an answer for Doncic and with the Mavs being at home for Game 3, I think the role players finally show up and carry this team to a win. Give m Dallas PK! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational VEGAS INSIDER (UNDER 207.5)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 207.5 in Game 2 between the Heat and 76ers. We played and won on the UNDER at 209 in Game 1. That game ended with Miami winning 106-92. It was almost like Miami flipped a switch in the 2nd half, as they went from being down 50-51 to winning by 14. 76ers only managed 41 points in the 2nd half. I don't think it's going to get any easier for them offensively now that Miami knows what they want to do without Embiid. 

Philly isn't going to just lie down because they don't have Embiid. They will fight and I think they are good enough defensively to keep the Heat's offense in check, especially with Miami having to play another game without point guard Kyle Lowry. I just think it will once again be a struggle for both of these teams to get to 100. Give me the UNDER 207.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Celtics -4.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with Boston laying the 4.5 in Game 2. The Celtics got a big wake-up call in Game 1. I know they aren't taking games off in the playoffs, but you have to wonder if they were as locked in as they should have been after sweeping the Nets in the 1st Round and Milwaukee being without one of their better players in Middleton. 

It just wasn't a good offensive game-plan for Boston, who jacked up 50+ 3-pointers. Look for them to attack more. I also though the defense played pretty well in the loss and should be even more locked in with this essentially being a must win down 0-1 at home. Give me the Celtics -4.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (UNDER 209)

I will gladly take my chances with the UNDER at 209 in Game 1 between the 76ers and Heat. Two big names for both sides will be out of this one. Joel Embiid is out until at least Game 3 and Kyle Lowry will miss the game for Miami. 

Embiid is an absolute massive blow to the 76ers, especially on the offensive side of the ball. I just don't see the likes of Harden/Maxey/Harris having a lot of success against this Miami defense. There's going to be no easy buckets for Philly. 

Embiid is also a big part of the 76ers' defense, but they can still be good on that side without him. It also helps them that the Lowry, Miami's floor general, won't be on the floor. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 100 points. Give me the UNDER 209! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Round 2 VEGAS INSIDER (Under 218) 

I absolutely love the UNDER at 218 in Game 1 of the Celtics/Bucks series. I think these are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The transformation that Boston has had defensively from the start of the year to now is pretty remarkable.

That defense just made KD look like an average player in their sweep of the Nets in the first round. Now they face a Bucks team down one of their top scorers in Middleton.

Milwaukee might not be on the Celtics level defensively, but they aren't far behind. The Bucks defense dominated a pretty good Bulls offense in the first round. It will be much harder against Boston, but they are up to the task. Getting to 100 points will be a struggle for both sides. Give me the UNDER 218! 

Confidence Rating: 9 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER (Under 229)

I'll take my chances with the UNDER 229 in Game 6 between the Timberwolves and Grizzlies. UNDER has cashed in 3 of the last 4 games in the series. As good as these two offenses are, a lot has to go right for a playoff game to get into the 230s, especially this late in a series when the teams know all the offensive sets the other team wants to run. Strictly a value play for me. Give me the UNDER 229! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Raptors +1.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with the Raptors as a home dog in Game 6. Everyone thought this series was over after Philly went up 3-0, but Toronto has won the last two, including a 103-88 win on the road in Game 5. 

All the talk right now is about how 76ers head coach Doc Rivers can't close out series. I think that's putting added pressure on Philly, but the even bigger issue here is Embiid is not playing at an MVP level with that injured thumb and Harden just is not the same guy he was just a couple years ago. Raptors have all the momentum and I fully expect this thing to go back to Philly for a Game 7. Give me Toronto +1.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT (Warriors -8.5)

I'll take my chances with the Warriors as a 8.5-point home favorite in Game 5 against the Nuggets. Not a big shocker that Denver was able to avoid getting swept with a 126-121 win at home in Game 4, but that took a near perfect night from them. Nuggets shot 56.2% from the field, made a series-high from them with 15 3's and also had a series-high 29 made free throws. And yet they still only won the Game by 5. 

Warriors won by 16 at home in Game 1 and by 20 at home in Game 2. It's just not asking much for Golden State to win here by double-digits. Give me the Warriors -8.5! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Pelicans +6.5) 

I got no problem taking the Pelicans as a 6.5-point dog in Game 5 on the road against the Suns. I think we have seen enough now that it's safe to say this is a pretty evenly matched series with Phoenix missing Booker. One I wouldn't be surprised at all if New Orleans won. 

Suns have shot better than 50% in each of the first 4 games, yet are -12 in total points scored in the series. Can they really bank on shooting 50% every game. Either way, the combo of Ingram and McCollum has proven to be deadly and simply put the Suns aren't getting enough out of the other guys. I give New Orleans a real shot here of winning this game outright. Give me the Pelicans +6.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational ATS SLAUGHTER (Wolves +6) 

I will take my chances with Minnesota as a 6-point road dog in Game 5. Memphis is really lucky the Timberwolves aren't up 3-1 in this series, as they blew that huge lead in Game 3 at home. I just think the Grizzlies were way overvalued coming into the playoffs.

Minnesota is every bit as talented as they are and have already proven they can win on the road, taking Game 1 130-117. I not only think the Timberwolves can keep it close enough to cover, I like them to win Game 5 outright. Give me Minnesota +6! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Raptors +8)

I'll take my chances with the Raptors as a 8-point dog against the 76ers in Game 5. I'm actually shocked the line is this high. Toronto may have to go without Fred VanVleet, but they won Game 4 with him playing just 15 minutes and scoring 5 points. 

With rookie Scottie Barnes back from injury and Gary Trent Jr. back to playing at a high level, Raptors got more than enough fire-power here to not just cover, but win the game outright. Especially with Embiid clearly playing at less than 100%. Give me the Raptors +8

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER (Nets -1)

I'll take my chances with Brooklyn at basically a pick'em at home in Game 4 against the Celtics. This is it for the Nets, who have shockingly fell behind 3-0 in this series. If there's one team that can be the first two overcome a 3-0 deficit, it's a team that's got a duo the likes of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. 

It's not like Boston has been hands down the better team in this series. Brooklyn could have very easily won al 3 of the games so far in the series. That's with Durant scoring a very mediocre 22.0 ppg on just 38.5% shooting and Irving scoring just 21.7 ppg on 42% shooting. I'm expecting the best game of the series for these two with the season on the line. Give me the Nets -1! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Late Night CASH COW (Pelicans +2.5) 

I really like the Pelicans as a home dog in Game 4 against the Suns on Sunday Night. I just don't think Phoenix is anything close to the juggernaut we expected coming into the playoffs without Devin Booker. New Orleans could have very easily won Game 3 at home and taken a 2-1 series lead. It took a really good game from Chris Paul and near perfect game of execution (only 5 TOs and shot 50.6% from the field) for Phoenix to win Game 3 by a mere 3-points. 

I just think the value is 100% with the Pelicans as a home dog in Game 4. Not only have they shown this is an even matchup without Booker, but they will be the more desperate team in this one. Give me the Pelicans +2.5! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Smart Money VEGAS INSIDER (Hawks +2) 

I'm going to take my chances with the Hawks as a slim home dog in Game 4 of their 1st Round series with Miami. It looked like Miami was well on their way to winning Game 3 and taking a commanding 3-0 series lead. They had a 84-68 lead in the 3rd quarter, but would lose Kyle Lowry to a hamstring injury and go on to lose the game 110-111. 

Lowry is listed as questionable, but he didn't practice yesterday and was seen walking gingerly. Hamstrings aren't exactly an injury you can play thru without reaggravating it. Without Lowry at full strength, it really opens up the door offensively for Trae Young. I just think that injury is a lot bigger deal than it's being made and yet we are seeing the exact same line we saw for Game 3. Give me he the Hawks +2.5! 

Confidence Rating: 7 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Situational ATS NO-BRAINER (Nets -2.5) 

I will gladly take my chances with Brooklyn as a mere 2.5-point home favorite in Game 3. After blowing a double-digit lead in Game 2, the Nets are down 0-2 in the series. Considering that no team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit, Brooklyn will 100% treat this like it's Game 7. 

Celtics are a good team, but winning on the road in the playoffs is a tall task, especially against a top tier team like the Nets. I just don't think they are going to be able to match the intensity of Brooklyn in this game and I'm not convinced they are even going to win this series. Nets remind everyone of just how good they are. Give me Brooklyn -2.5! 

Confidence Rating: 8 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money PLAY OF THE WEEK (Raptors +3.5) 

I absolutely love the Raptors as a 3.5-point home dog against the 76ers in Game 4. Philly may be up 3-0 in the series and almost a lock to advance to the next round, but it's a lot harder than people think to close out a series on the road. Toronto is going to do everything in their power to win this game. 

Even though no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, it doesn't mean the Raptors aren't thinking they can be the first team to pull off the feat. There's also reason for Toronto to be optimistic they can turn this around, as they are set to get back one of their best players in Scottie Barnes, who missed both Game 2 and Game 3. Even if he doesn't play, I still think Toronto find a way to send this thing back to Philly for Game 5. Give me the Raptors +3.5! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)

NBA Playoffs Sharp Money MAX UNIT Top Play (Bucks -2)

I will gladly lay the 2-points with the Bucks in Game 3 at Chicago. I just think too much is being made of the Middleton injury. He's a great player and they need him if they want to repeat, but they got more than enough talent to beat this Bulls team. 

Chicago just couldn't miss in Game 2. They shot 49.4% from the field and 48% from behind the 3-point line. That's after they shot 32.3% from the field and 18.9% from deep in Game 1. I expect a much better defensive effort from Milwaukee and offensively the Bulls still don't have any answers for the size of the Bucks. Give me Milwaukee -2! 

Confidence Rating: 10 (Scale of 1-10)