Given all the skill position talent, outstanding offensive coaching and this game being played indoors, I'm going Over this total.

There were 73 combined points in last year's Super Bowl between the Eagles and Chiefs. While I don't believe the 49ers and Chiefs will get anywhere near that number, I do believe there will be more than 50 points produced by the two teams.

Andy Reid is one of the best offensive innovator head coaches of all-time. Kyle Shanahan is an elite play-caller. Give these coaches two weeks to prepare and they should design excellent schemes and game plans.

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and already one of the all-time greats. He has a Hall of Fame tight end, Travis Kelce, wide receiver depth and a solid running back in Isiah Pacheco, who is running behind an improved run-blocking offensive line.

San Francisco has an average secondary and its overall defense has not looked good in its two playoff games. Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards, while averaging 6.0 yards a carry, against the 49ers and the Lions rushed for 182 yards on 29 carries - a 6.3 yards per run average - against San Francisco. Mahomes is going to be highly effective if the Chiefs are running the ball well. The Chiefs put up 31 points when they met the 49ers in the Super Bowl four seasons ago.

Kansas City has its best defense of the Reid/Mahomes era. But the rules highly favor offense and the 49ers have numerous weapons for Brock Purdy with Christian McCaffrey - the best all-purpose back in the league - Deebo Samuel - the best combination of receiver/runner in the NFL - emerging star Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and versatile fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

The Chiefs just lost two of their defensive linemen to injuries, Charles Omenihu and Derrick Nnadi. The 49ers are averaging 31.1 points in their last 10 games in which Purdy has started. Kansas City's defense is good, but not elite. It can't stop all of those 49ers weapons.

San Francisco has an elite defense. Detroit's defense is somewhat underrated. I don't trust Jared Goff in an outdoor big game even though there won't be bad weather. I don't consider Brock Purdy an elite quarterback. Deebo Samuel could be limited.

Those are my reasons, in a nutshell, why I don't see this rather high total going Over.

The 49ers surrendered the third-fewest points in the league at 17.5. They also have the No. 3 run defense and were sixth in takeaways. San Francisco gave up 21 or fewer points in seven of its last nine games. I seriously question how effective Goff will be on the road against this caliber of defense.

The Lions are tough to run on. They gave up the second-fewest rushing yards and were fourth in causing negative plays. Detroit hasn't yielded more than 24 points during any of its last six games. The Lions held both the Chiefs and Cowboys to just 20 points each when they played them on the road.

Purdy didn't look good against the Packers last week. Many of his throws were not accurate. The 49ers are reliant on Samuel, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The 49ers averaged 7.1 yards per play with Samuel and 5.7 yards per play without him. 

The Eagles catch two major breaks here. This game is on Monday night so they get extra rest. They also draw the Buccaneers.

The Eagles are at low ebb right now dropping five of their last six games. They certainly won't lack motivation now that the playoffs are here. Tampa Bay, winner of the weak NFC South Division, is one of the worst teams in the postseason. 

The Bucs are last in rushing and Baker Mayfield is banged-up. Tampa Bay has produced a combined 22 points in its last two games going against the Panthers and Saints. 

Philadelphia played a much more difficult schedule than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers only went 1-5 in games vs playoff teams. The one victory came against the Packers. 

The Buccaneers hosted the Eagles back in Week 3. It didn't go well for Tampa Bay. The Eagles won, 25-11. The Buccaneers could only manage 12 first downs and 41 yards rushing. 

The total has been bet up in anticipation of a Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff shootout. I'm not buying into that storyline.

Yes, there are some very good skill position players involved. But this is a high total and these defenses are not as bad as some perceive. I also believe there will be more running plays than expected. 

Raheem Morris is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. He's done a fine job with the Rams this season. Aaron Donald still is in his dominant prime. Morris has the Rams playing a lot of soft coverage. This invites the run and prevents big plays from happening. It's good for the Under. 

Lions coach Dan Campbell isn't afraid to feature a lot of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. The Rams held seven of their last nine opponents to 22 or fewer points. Just once did the Rams allow an opposing runner to gain 100 rushing yards.

Goff's top red zone target is tight end Sam LaPorta, who set a rookie record with 86 catches and ranked No. 1 in red zone touchdowns for tight ends. LaPorta suffered a knee injury in the Lions' Week 18 victory against the Vikings. He'll be limited if he plays. Also hurt in that game was Kalif Raymond, a dangerous return man for the Lions. 

The Rams use Kyren Williams to set up their passing attack. Detroit's defense strength is its run defense. The Lions finished third in yards per carry allowed and No. 2 in run defense limiting opposing runners to 88.8 yards per game.

The Packers surprised many people sneaking into the playoffs as the final wild-card team. But that is their ceiling.

Dallas could be the best team in the NFL when playing at home. The Cowboys have won 16 games in a row at AT&T Stadium. That includes an 8-0 mark this season with the average winning margin being 21.5 points.

Green Bay is the youngest team in the NFL. The Packers had no Pro Bowl players. None. They are 28th in run defense. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with an ankle injury. Joe Barry is one of the worst defensive coordinators in the league. He will not have answers, nor innovations, to slow down Dallas' high-powered attack.

The Cowboys were the top-scoring team in the NFL. Dak Prescott was first in touchdown passes. He has a 22-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home. CeeDee Lamb is right there with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill as the best wide receiver in football.

Before closing out their regular season facing the Vikings' rookie fourth-string quarterback and the Bears, the Packers surrendered 34 points to the Buccaneers at home. They made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana. Then Green Bay gave up 30 points to the Panthers. Carolina ranked last in yards gained and second-to-last in points. The Panthers were shut out in their final two games after playing Green Bay.

The Packers, Jordan Love and their many young receivers are in the development stage. The Cowboys have gone 12-5 each of the last three seasons making the playoffs each year. They are far ahead of the Packers at this juncture.

I find this total too high for a pair of inexperienced playoff teams. C.J. Stroud is an extraordinary rookie. But he's going against a Cleveland defense that gave up the fewest yards per game and finished No. 2 in the metric DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Stroud also has to deal with maybe the best pass rusher in the league, Myles Garrett.

Joe Flacco has been a remarkable story saving the Browns' season. But what's been overlooked about Flacco, who turns 39 in a matter of days, is he has thrown eight interceptions in his five starts with Cleveland.

I envision the Browns being heavily run-oriented against the Texans. The Colts had great success on the ground vs the Texans. But they had Jonathan Taylor. The Browns don't have an above average runner with Nick Chubb sidelined.

Houston's defense is going to get reinforced, too, this week with the return of star pass rushing rookie Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Blake Cashman, an underrated player who racks up tackles. The Texans also might get back defensive lineman Jonathan Greenard.

It's time. Michigan has the superior defense, ground attack and big-game experience having been in three straight college football playoffs to beat Washington by more than a field goal. 

Washington hasn't faced a defense this good. The Wolverines give up the fewest points per game in the nation. They rank No. 2 in fewest yards allowed, too, and in pass defense.

Those who like Washington in this title game say Michigan hasn't faced a quarterback the caliber of Michael Penix Jr. The Wolverines, though, beat their share of talented quarterbacks - Jalen Milroe, Taulia Tagovailoa, Kyle McCord and Drew Allar. Michigan also is familiar with Penix having gone against him when he played for Indiana before transferring to Washington. 

The Huskies have good wide receivers. But Michigan has seen better having knocked off Ohio State, who had Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Julian Fleming. 

Michigan is stronger than Washington in the trenches. The Wolverines sacked Alabama's Milroe six times in holding the Crimson Tide to 20 points. Penix isn't as mobile as Milroe. 

Something overlooked in this matchup is penalty yardage. The well-coached Wolverines had the second-fewest penalties in the nation. Washington had more than 70 yards in penalties called against them per game, a difference of about 51 yards compared to Michigan. 

Washington ranked 122nd in pass defense and 41st in run defense. Michigan's star running back Blake Corum ran for 177 yards and three touchdowns when the teams met two seasons ago at Michigan. The Wolverines won that game, 31-10. 

Michigan's ground edge will be even more significant if Dillon Johnson, the Huskies' 1,000-yard rusher, is compromised, or unable to play, because of a lower body injury suffered against Texas in Washington's Super Bowl victory.

This is an NFL regular season game masquerading as an exhibition game with an exhibition type total.

No Patrick Mahomes. No Justin Herbert nor Keenan Allen.

The Chiefs are locked into the No. 3 playoff seed in the AFC. The Chargers are rudderless awaiting a new coach. Andy Reid has told his Chiefs to go out and have fun. The Chiefs won't have Mahomes, but their quarterback-friendly offensive system is in place.

So I see a loosely, played game with each team not afraid to take chances.

The headline is Mahomes not playing. But many key defensive players won't be in action either. The Chargers already have ruled out Joey Bosa and Kenneth Murray. The Chiefs could sit out their best defensive player, star pass rusher Chris Jones. He's dealing with a groin injury.

Blaine Gabbert will fill-in for Mahomes. He's one of the better backup QB's in the league. He's backed by an above average offense. The Chiefs don't have any stars at wide receiver, but they do have good wide receiving depth. The bar is set low for Kansas City's offense. The Chargers rank 29th in total defense and 30th in pass defense. They just surrendered 63 points to the Raiders three weeks ago.

Easton Stick will be making his fifth straight QB start for the Chargers. He has command of the offense. The Chargers, like the Chiefs, are a passing offense. Unlike other Week 18 games, weather won't factor here with clear skies, temperatures in the high 50's and little wind.

The Eagles don't need to beat the Giants unless the Cowboys happen to lose to the Commanders. That's not going to happen. The Cowboys are two-touchdown favorites in that game. So the Eagles will be the NFC's No. 5 seed.

Both the Dallas and Philadelphia Sunday games go later in the afternoon. The Eagles will be monitoring the Cowboys-Commanders matchup. If that game goes as expected with Dallas winning, Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is going to want to pull Jalen Hurts and other starters not wanting to risk injury.

But even if the Eagles starters play the entire game - which I don't anticipate - the Giants are capable of beating Philadelphia straight-up.

New York would be 4-3 in its last seven games if not for a one-point loss to the Rams this past Sunday. Tyrod Taylor is the right quarterback choice. The Giants' offensive line has gotten healthier. Darren Waller has returned at tight end.

The Eagles' defense is gassed. They are giving up 31.5 points a game during their last six games. They miss Jonathan Gannon, their defensive coordinator from last season who now coaches the Cardinals. Gannon's Cardinals ran for 221 yards and never punted in beating the Eagles, 35-31, this past Sunday at Philadelphia. Saquon Barkley is better than James Conner or any runner Arizona has.

This very well could be Bill Belichick's final game as head coach of the Patriots after 24 seasons. I don't see Belichick losing at home to the Jets, a rivalry opponent his Patriots have beaten 15 times in a row! 

New England has kept its poise under Belichick despite skill position deficiencies. The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four games with straight-up upset victories against the Steelers and Broncos.
 
The Jets have collapsed under the weight of horrendous quarterback play going 2-7 SU, 1-8 ATS. Defense had been New York's strength. But the Jets defense has worn down from being on the field so much this season. New York has allowed an average of 31.6 points in its last three games. The Jets just were lit up by 38-year-old Joe Flacco this past Thursday losing, 37-20. 

Bailey Zappe has completed 70.3 percent of his passes during the last four games for 885 yards and six touchdowns. The Jets can't match that through the air with a quarterback choice of either Trevor Siemian or Zach Wilson if he's healthy. The Patriots have held the Jets to an average of 9.8 points during the last five meetings, including a 15-10 win earlier this season.

Just because the Steelers are in a must-win spot to keep their playoff hopes alive, doesn't mean they will win. Yes, I understand the Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will be sitting out multiple starters, including Lamar Jackson.

But John Harbaugh doesn't like losing, especially to Baltimore's bitter rival, which is Pittsburgh.

The Ravens have excellent depth and revenge for a frustrating 17-10 Week 5 loss to the Steelers when Baltimore turned the ball over three times.

Harbaugh has shown how much he hates losing as the Ravens are 24-2 in their last 26 preseason games. Baltimore also has covered 77 percent of the time the past 31 instances it has been an underdog going 24-7 ATS.

Tyler Huntley will be starting instead of Jackson. But he's no worse, if not better, than Pittsburgh's QB, immobile Mason Rudolph, who was Mike Tomlin's third choice at quarterback after Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky.

The Steelers have injuries at linebacker and in the secondary so they also will have reserves in their lineup.

The Vikings' defense has improved under ace defensive coordinator Brian Flores. Minnesota has held four of its last six opponents to 21 or fewer points.

Kevin O'Connell did the Packers a big favor by having rookie Jaren Hall start. Hall has passed for a total of 101 yards in the NFL. This signals the Vikings are going to be extra cautious and conservative in this matchup.

Jaire Alexander is suspended. But he's missed most of the season and hasn't played up to his elite level when he has been on the field. The Vikings also are without star tight end T.J. Hockenson.

The Chiefs are not an elite team right now. But the Bengals aren't even a playoff team without Joe Burrow and D.J. Reader to fortify the team's run defense. So I'm going to buy low on the Chiefs to beat the Bengals by more than a touchdown at home.

This feels like an overdue blowout victory for the Chiefs off one of their worst losses of the Patrick Mahomes era.

The Bengals have faced backup quarterbacks each of the last three games. Now they get Mahomes after just surrendering 34 points to the Steelers and Mason Rudolph.

Just like Joshua Dobbs and Tommy DeVito, the magic is wearing off on backup QB Jake Browning. These reserve quarterbacks become exposed once opponents see enough of them and fully realize their many limitations.

The Chiefs rank No. 2 in the NFL in fewest points and yards. I don't see Browning doing much against this strong of a defense on the road, especially if he doesn't get Ja'Marr Chase back.

The demoralized Broncos aren't making the playoffs for the eighth straight season. Because of that and financial considerations, they could sit out Russell Wilson. Jarrett Stidham is Denver's backup QB. That's a huge dropoff.

The Chargers showed new life in their first game without fired coach Brandon Staley nearly upsetting the Bills. Staley was holding the Chargers back with his terrible on-field decisions and hurting team morale.

Denver already has lost four times as a home favorite. The last coming to the Patriots in gut-punching fashion this past Sunday night.

The Chargers usually keep games close. They have lost six games by three or fewer points. The Chargers have had a chance to adjust to new QB Easton Stick and want to keep sticking it to the unpopular Staley by playing hard for popular interim coach Giff Smith.

Since returning from a finger injury, Matthew Stafford has been one of the best QB's in the NFL throwing for 1,578 yards with a 15-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last six games. 

Setting up Stafford has been the emergence of Kyren Williams as an elite running back. The second-year running back tops the NFL averaging 96.1 yards rushing a game. The Giants rank 29th in run defense. So an effective Williams should mean another big performance for Stafford and his stud wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. 

Making it worse for the Giants is they are banged-up in their defensive line. 

The buy sign is on the Giants offense with Brian Daboll going with veteran Tyrod Taylor at quarterback instead of Tommy DeVito. 

Weather won't be a factor with temperatures in the 40's, clear skies and only a slight wind.

This is both a play on Dallas and fade on Detroit. The spot intersects perfectly.

The Cowboys return home following a close road loss to the Dolphins. Dallas has been absolutely dominant at home and very strong, too, off a loss.
Dallas is 7-0 at home. The Cowboys' average winning margin at home is 24.4 points. Dallas also is 8-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons following a defeat.

The Lions are in a major letdown spot after capturing their first division crown in 30 years.

Dallas is second in the NFL in scoring at 30.1 points a game. Detroit also has a good offense. The difference is defense. The Cowboys give up the fifth-fewest points per game at 19.1. The Lions have permitted an average of 26.8 points during their last nine games. Detroit ranks 24th in scoring defense and 23rd in pass defense.

Dak Prescott has a 122.5 passer rating at home and a home mark of 20 touchdown passes and only two interceptions.

There's also a 10-figure gap in turnover ratio. Dallas is plus 8 in takeaways/giveaways while the Lions are minus-2.

North Carolina State has plenty of momentum entering this bowl game. I'm going to ride that here as Kansas State was hit hard by players transferring and opting out. I see a wrong favorite here.

The Wolfpack won and covered their last five games. They won four of those games as underdogs beating Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Kansas State, on the flip side, lost three times as a favorite falling to Missouri, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The Wildcats are 2-2, 1-2-1 ATS in their last four games.

I'm not a huge fan of North Carolina State QB Brennan Armstrong. But he's an experienced, dual threat who played well against North Carolina in the Wolfpack's last game passing for 334 yards and three touchdowns helping North Carolina State pile up 504 yards in a 39-20 victory.

Now the Wolfpack drop down from facing Drake Maye, maybe the best quarterback in college, to drawing freshman Avery Johnson. He's replacing the Wildcats' starting QB Will Howard, who was one of around 15 Kansas State players leaving. The Wildcats also lost All-Big 12 tight end Ben Sinnott and star safety Kobe Savage. They also won't have offensive coordinator and play-caller Collin Klein. He left for Texas A&M to be the Aggies' offensive coordinator after coaching at Kansas State for seven years.

Only 16 teams ranked ahead of North Carolina State on run defense. The Wolfpack also ranked third in the country in takeaways with 17.

Since 2021, Baltimore is 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Jackson is 19-1 against NFC opponents. The Ravens are one rushing touchdown shy of their franchise-best of 24 running TD's.

So as good as San Francisco is, I'm not turning down this many points with Baltimore.

This may be the game of the year. But as strange as it may sound, this is not a crucial game for the 49ers. San Francisco can lose to Baltimore and still earn the No. 1 NFC seed in the playoffs by winning its final two games. Those games are against the 4-11 Commanders and Rams at home.

My handicap is based almost entirely on being pro-Ravens rather than anti-49ers. But San Francisco did give up 234 rushing yards to the Cardinals last week. The 49ers hadn't allowed that many yards on the ground in six seasons. Perhaps a possible red flag? The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. They've run for at least 100 yards in 30 straight games.

Both teams have Super Bowl-caliber defenses. The Ravens have surrendered 20 touchdowns, which is the fewest in the league. Baltimore has permitted one touchdown or fewer in nine games. That's by far the best mark in the NFL.

Brock Purdy is a pocket passer. He has outstanding weapons that he utilizes well. Jackson is his own weapon. He's the most mobile quarterback the 49ers have faced and by far the best dual-threat they've seen.

This is the supreme fade spot on the Raiders' offense after they put up 63 points against the hapless Chargers at home last week. Despite that result, Las Vegas' offense isn't very good, quarterbacked by Aidan O'Connell. The Raiders averaged just 11.5 points in their previous four games before hosting the Chargers.

The Chiefs entered this week surrendering the third-fewest points per game at 17.5. Their defense is strong and is even better with linebacker Nick Bolton back from injury.

Kansas City's offense is way down from past Patrick Mahomes seasons. The Chiefs are outside of the top-10 in scoring. This is the weakest wide receiver group Mahomes has had.

Weather is going to factor, too. The forecast is for showers, possibly snow, with temperatures dipping below 32. The Raiders are an indoors team that hasn't played in a bad weather game all season.

Geno Smith has missed Seattle's last two games. When Smith last played it was against the Cowboys. He accounted for four touchdowns and threw for 334 yards leading the Seahawks to 35 points in a 41-35 road loss. Smith is capable of games like that aided by having three excellent wide receivers and two good running backs. Smith will be back in action for this matchup.

Smith's task will be made easier by the Titans' cluster injury problem on defense. Among those out for Tennessee is lineman Jeffery Simmons. He's the Titans best defensive player. The Titans' secondary is decimated by injuries. Among those out are cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Sean Murphy-Bunting along with safeties Amani Hooker and K'Von Wallace. Defensive backs Shyheim Carter and Tae Gowan have been called up from the practice squad.

The Titans are eliminated from playoff contention. That should ensure a loose game from them with nothing to lose. Ryan Tannehill is back at quarterback with Will Levis unable to go. Tannehill is playing for his NFL future. Derrick Henry also is in rebound mode coming off one of his worst performances.

Seattle has its own injuries in the secondary. Safety Jamal Adams has been ruled out and cornerback Devon Witherspoon is out, too, with a hip injury.

The last three games in this series have gone Over. There have been at least 52 points scored during each of those past three games. I see that pattern continuing.

The Lions have tremendous firepower with Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and explosive Jamison Williams. The Vikings are heavy blitzers. But Jared Goff will be well-protected with the Lions' excellent offensive line healthy again.

Goff usually is at his finest playing on a fast track in a dome setting like in this matchup. Detroit ranks in the top-five in many of the major offensive categories, including points, yards, passing and rushing.  

Detroit's defense has been exposed as fraudulent. The Lions are giving up an average of 27.2 points in their last eight games.

The Vikings have the right backup quarterback in place now with veteran Nick Mullens. He's a much better distributor than Joshua Dobbs or rookie Jaren Hall. Justin Jefferson is healthy, giving Mullens a great wideout to go with star tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Look for a lot of back and forth scoring with this one getting into the 50's just like in their three previous head-to-head matchups.

These two teams have changed positions as the season comes to a close. Duke opened 5-1 with just a loss to Notre Dame. But the Blue Devils lost their star QB, Riley Leonard, to injury and went 2-4 the rest of the way falling way out of the top-25. 

Troy opened 1-2 and then won 10 in a row, including defeating Appalachian State, 49-23, in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. The Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games. 

This is the first time a Sun Belt team is facing a foe from a Power 5 Conference in a bowl game. Troy has more than sufficient motivation. Not so for Duke. The Trojans also will have strong in-state crowd support with this game in Birmingham, Ala. 

I had great respect for Duke coach Mike Elko. But he left for Texas A&M. The Blue Devils not only won't have Leonard, who transferred to Notre Dame, but won't have star defensive linemen Aeneas Peebles and RJ Oben. They each entered the transfer portal. 

Troy averaged 36.5 points in its last six games. The Trojans are also strong defensively ranking sixth in sacks and 15th in total defense. Duke's offense was well below average without Leonard. The Blue Devils ended up ranking 96th in total yards.

Central Florida is making its third Gasparilla Bowl appearance in five seasons. That can't be too exciting for the Knights. I question their motivation and their being favored by more than a field goal in this bowl game.

Georgia Tech is up for this game. It's the Yellow Jackets' first bowl appearance since 2018. Nice coaching job by Brent Key in his second season with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were inconsistent, but dangerous as underdogs. 

Georgia Tech was 6-2 ATS as underdogs. The Yellow Jackets lost to Louisville by five points and to Georgia by eight points, two teams better than Central Florida. They beat Miami and North Carolina straight-up as double-digit 'dogs.

Both Central Florida QB John Rhys Plumlee and Georgia Tech's Haynes King are dual threats. Plumlee, though, is not 100 percent because of a lingering knee injury. 

Central Florida ranks 121st in run defense and 85th in defensive total yards. The Knights will be without their top defensive back, Corey Thornton. 

There's going to be lots of scoring in this one - and Georgia Tech will be right there if not on top at the end.

Texas-San Antonio's defense improved starting in Week 4. The Roadrunners held their last seven opponents to an average of 21.4 points. Marshall's offense is very unimposing. The Thundering Herd ranked 93rd in scoring and 89th in total yards.

And that was with their regular QB, Cam Fancher. Now Marshall won't have Fancher, who entered the transfer portal. Next man up for Marshall is Cole Pennington. He's a redshirt freshman and the son of Chad Pennington, the former Jets quarterback. Pennington saw action in three games. He threw six interceptions and had no TD passes.

UTSA's offense was decent, but not as good as some expected. The Roadrunners could manage only 16 points against Tulane in their last game.

There is one thing the Commanders have excelled at this season, covering as a road underdog. They are 5-1 ATS in that role.

The Rams left nothing on the field in taking a tough road overtime loss to the Ravens last Sunday. It was an extremely physical game. The Rams looked like the superior team. But now the Rams are in the favorite's role against a rested Washington team that finally had its bye week. The Commanders desperately needed to rest and regroup having lost four in a row. It's one of many unfair things about the NFL that some teams had to wait until Week 14 to get their bye.

The Commanders are horrible on defense especially in pass coverage. However, they have skill position talent and quarterback Sam Howell is resilient and resourceful. He can keep the Commanders in this contest against a below-average Los Angeles defense that has just 11 takeaways, third-lowest in the league.

The Rams host the Saints this coming Thursday in what shapes up to be a tougher game and more meaningful in their playoff chase. So this matchup looms as a letdown spot.

I'm selling high on the Bears, who have won three of their last four games but haven't faced an elite defense like this on the road all season.

Chicago is in a fat-and-happy mood having won two straight NFC North Division games upsetting the Vikings on the road and Lions at home this past Sunday.

Cleveland gives up the fewest yards in the NFL. The Browns also are a far stronger defensive team at home. Toss out the Ravens game and the Browns have held their other six home opponents to an average of 10 points a game.

Joe Flacco has solidified the Browns' quarterback spot with his veteran presence and threat of a deep pass. He's 38, but his arm is still there.

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are pissed. It's not a good time to be playing the Chiefs especially if you have a punchless offense like the Patriots do.

The Chiefs are still mad and fired-up about the way they lost to the Bills last week. They are going to be up for this game. Kansas City has too much offense for New England.

The Patriots and Bailey Zappe didn't suddenly get good by virtue of their 21-18 victory against the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh is terrible going 1-4 in its last five games averaging 13.4 points during this span.

New England's defense is sound, but it's going to break under the weight of the Chiefs' well-designed attack and the ineptitude of the Patriot offense. The Patriots had scored a combined 13 points during their previous three games before beating the Steelers. New England is the lowest-scoring team in the NFL averaging 13 points a game. Zappe is not a starting-caliber quarterback and the Patriots remain without their one decent skill position player, injured Rhamondre Stevenson.

This also was the week where news broke about this possibly being Bill Belichick's last season in New England. Belichick hasn't had the locker room all season. So this distracting news is going to be more of a negative than a motivational factor.

Now that Tahj Brooks is set to play, I like Texas Tech to beat California in the Independence Bowl. The Red Raiders are better than Cal on both sides of the ball and Brooks is the best player on the field. 

Brooks rushed for 1,443 yards, fourth-best in the nation. California finished the regular season ranked 113th in scoring defense and 109th in total defense. The Golden Bears didn't face that many outstanding runners in the Pac-12 because the conference was such a great passing league. 

Texas Tech had an up-and-down season, but is anxious to prove itself again after getting blasted, 57-7, on the road by then seventh-ranked Texas in its final regular season game. The Red Raiders had beaten TCU, then 16th-ranked Kansas and Central Florida during a 17-day span before falling to the Longhorns. 

The Red Raiders also had held eight of their last nine foes to 28 or fewer points before meeting Texas. 

I don't see many points being scored in this LA Bowl matchup of UCLA vs Boise State. UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country despite playing in the pass-happy Pac-12, which had the best quarterbacks of any conference.

The Bruins rank 15th in scoring defense giving up 18.1 points. They also ranked third in the nation in run defense and 11th in total defense.

Boise State QB Taylen Green was named the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year. Unfortunately for the Broncos, Green transferred to Arkansas following the end of the regular season. So true freshman CJ Tiller will start against the Bruins. Tiller has yet to throw his first college pass. The Broncos also lose Green's rushing threat. He was second on the team in rushing touchdowns with nine. Tiller faces a UCLA pass rush that had the sixth-most sacks in the country with 41.

The Broncos peaked defensively down the stretch holding their last four foes - New Mexico, Utah State, Air Force and UNLV - to an average of 15.7 points.

UCLA has quarterback problems. The Bruins' highly-touted freshman QB, Dante Moore, entered the transfer portal. That leaves Ethan Garbers and Collin Schlee. Both are banged-up and neither has been overly effective. The Bruins could manage just a combined 24 points against California, Arizona and Arizona State during three of the last four games.

These two teams have gone in opposite directions. New Mexico State is 8-1 SU and ATS in its last nine games. Fresno State fell apart after a promising 8-1 start, losing and failing to cover its final three regular-season games in bad form to San Jose State, New Mexico and San Diego State. The Bulldogs were favored against the Lobos and Aztecs.

New Mexico State is excited to play in this bowl game, which is in its home state. The Lobos should have a strong home crowd. Fresno State can't help but be disappointed to land a minor bowl bid for a game in Albuquerque, N.M.  

The Lobos hold a strong coaching edge, too, with Jerry Kill. He's done a fantastic job turning New Mexico State into a good team. The Lobos won six times straight-up in an underdog role. Fresno State is being coached by Jeff Skipper, who's filling in for Jeff Tedford as Tedford is stepping away due to health concerns.

This is a low total for a Colts home game. Indy has gone Over in 69 percent of its games under innovative and aggressive Shane Steichen.

The Colts are the eighth-highest scoring team in the NFL at 24.2 points per game. They have scored 27 or more points in five of their last seven games.

I expect the Steelers to keep up. They gained more than 400 yards for the first time this season three weeks ago against the Bengals. It was not a coincidence it was their first game since firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada. There was a big buzz then about Pittsburgh's improved offense.

The Steelers are more explosive and use better schemes since getting rid of Canada, who seemed to think the only pass worth throwing was an out-of-bounds sideline pass to George Pickens. But the offensive improvement didn't show the past two games because the Steelers had to play in horrible weather conditions against the Cardinals and then went up against New England's upper-tier defense, although still managing 21 points against the Patriots.

Now the Steelers are dropping way down in defensive class facing the Colts, who rank 29th in scoring defense giving up 25.4 points a game. The Colts are 27th in run defense and 25th in total defense.

Mitch Trubisky is just as good as Kenny Pickett. Yes I know that's a low bar. But Trubisky is far more mobile and he has three quality receivers and two reliable running backs to help him out against a bad defense on Indy's fast dome track.

When it's dreck vs dreck like it is in this matchup, take the points. 

The Chargers beat the Raiders, 24-17, in Week 4. That was Aidan O'Connell's quarterback debut in the NFL. Khalil Mack welcomed O'Connell into the league by sacking him six times. O'Connell had three turnovers in that game. Nothing has changed. O'Connell still holds the ball too long and is mistake-prone. 

Only once in their last seven games have the Raiders scored more than 17 points. Las Vegas is averaging 11.5 points in its past four games. Jimmy Garoppolo is just an older version of O'Connell, a statue who also has thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes.  

The Chargers are vulnerable on pass defense. However, they rank No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with 43. The questionable status of Josh Jacobs is getting a lot of attention. But the Raiders definitely will be without two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Kolton Miller and center Andre James. Las Vegas' quarterbacks are immobile. Missing two starters from the offensive line, including perhaps their best one in Miller, does not bode well. 

Chargers quarterback Easton Stick shouldn't be worse than O'Connell or Garoppolo. This is his fifth season as the Chargers' backup. He's learned from Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert and is well ingrained into the Chargers' system. Stick was a huge star for FCS power North Dakota State from 2015-18. No Keenan Allen, but the Chargers at least get Josh Palmer back. 

Stick should be able to move the ball throwing short against the Raiders' soft zone coverages they heavily use. Austin Ekeler has lost his juice as a runner, but he still is one of the best at catching the ball out of the backfield. 

Maybe now that the pressure is off, the Chargers will loosen up and play better. The disadvantage of being the road team on Thursday is lessened here because the Chargers only had a short distance to travel and are well-acquainted with their AFC West Division rival. 

Miami has the most explosive and intriguing offense in the NFL. The Dolphins lead the league in yards and are second in points at 32 per game. They also have had the most plays of plus 25 and plus 50 yard gains.

The Titans would be hard-pressed to keep the Dolphins in check if they had all of their best defensive players. But they will be without their top lineman, Jeffery Simmons, and cornerback, Kristian Fulton. So this sets up as another big-scoring game for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jalen Waddle. Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The Titans gave up 34 points to the Jaguars in their last road game.

The Dolphins can come close to covering this Over themselves. But I expect the Titans to contribute their share of points.

Derrick Henry still has some juice left. He entered this week ranked No. 2 in rushing with 841 yards and eight TD's on the ground. Rookie QB Will Levis had proven to be more gunslinger than game manager, averaging 11.8 yards per completion in six starts, which was the third-highest number in the AFC during the last seven weeks.

The Titans lost their reliable punter, Ryan Stonehouse, to a season-ending injury in last week's, 31-28, overtime loss to the Colts. The Colts blocked two Tennessee punts in that game. The Dolphins are sure to have taken notice.

Dallas is 9-3. The Cowboys have crushed a lot of bad teams. They've faced only two above .500 opponents, though, and lost those two games, falling to the Eagles and 49ers.

I think of the Cowboys as a bully. Now they get their rematch with the Eagles. You know what you're getting with the Eagles - an elite, resilient team that is well-coached. I can't say that about the Cowboys.

I wonder if the Cowboys' preparation wasn't thrown off by Mike McCarthy undergoing surgery for an acute appendicitis on Wednesday?

The Eagles have fortified themselves after getting blasted by the 49ers at home this past Sunday. Dallas Goedert, a top-five tight end, is expected to play after missing the last three games. Goedert opens the middle of the field for Jalen Hurts and makes things easier for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

The Eagles also upgraded their defense by signing three-time All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard.

There are multiple bad weather games this week. This isn't one of them. The forecast is for a sunny day with temperatures in the 40's and little wind.

So Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes won't have any restrictions.

The Bills have been more aggressive in playing to Allen's strengths - which is his running and taking downfield shots - since firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey two games ago. Buffalo is averaging 33 points since Dorsey departed. They had averaged 20.5 points during their previous six games.

The Chiefs were short-handed at linebacker against the Packers last week after Drue Tranquill suffered a concussion. He's questionable as is Nick Bolton, who has been on the injured list. It's a bonus if those two are unable to play.

Mahomes can take advantage of a beat-up Bills defense that has lost their best linebacker and cornerback for the season.

No, I wasn't around for the Army-Navy game when Mr. Inside Glenn Davis and Mr. Outside Doc Blanchard were the stars. But I did see the 1963 game when Navy's Roger Staubach played. I still remember it, too.

So I understand this rivalry. I haven't always gotten involved betting-wise on this game, but I'm making an exception this season backing Army.

Why?

Army played the more difficult schedule, is the more rested team, has more momentum than Navy and the confidence of winning five of the past seven meetings.

The Black Knights have been idle since November 18. They have won their last three games beating Holy Cross, Coastal Carolina and stunning Air Force, 23-3, as an 18-point underdog.

Navy last played on November 25 when it was hammered by SMU, 59-14. The Midshipmen are in the American Athletic Conference. Army had a more difficult schedule being independent. The Black Knights upset Texas San Antonio from Navy's AAC, knocked off Air Force from the Mountain West Conference, lost to ACC teams Boston College and Syracuse, fell to Sun Belt champion Troy and were blasted by LSU, 62-0.

That defeat to LSU in which the Tigers ran up the score to enhance Jayden Daniels' Heisman Trophy chances skewed Army's season statistics.

It's difficult to lay points in what should be a very low-scoring game - as this matchup usually is. So I'm going to back my opinion that Army is the superior team by taking the Black Knights on the money line.

Jordan Love has had two strong games in a row. That was against the Chargers and Lions. Now he steps up facing a much better defense. Kansas City surrenders the third-fewest points per game at 16.5. The Chiefs haven't allowed more than 21 points in a game all season.

The Packers are likely to be missing their best runner again, Aaron Jones. That leaves plodding A.J. Dillon, who isn't 100 percent either because of groin injury, and free agent type of backup runners to handle the ground attack.

Green Bay's defense has been underrated, permitting 18.2 points per game in its last seven games. There's a good chance the Packers get back a number of their injured defensive backs, too, including shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander. A healthy Rashan Gary makes a big difference for Green Bay. His snap count has increased as he nears 100 percent. Gary had three sacks against the Lions last Thursday.

The Chiefs have dropped the most passes in the league costing them nearly 300 yards. Expect Kansas City to attack Green Bay's run defense. That means a lot of north/south runner Isiah Pacheco, which is good for the under.

This is a December night game in Green Bay so it will be cold. The forecast is for temperatures in the 20's with a chance of snow.

The Rams were able to bully a bad Cardinals defense last week. They won't be able to do that against an elite, well-coached Browns defense.

Cleveland is the better team. But because of its quarterback situation with Joe Flacco starting we have an inflated line on the Rams.

The line is shaded to the Rams, too, because of Cleveland injuries. However, I expect both Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper to both play. Cooper actually is excited about Flacco starting because of Flacco's ability to throw deep.

If you discount the Rams' overtime victory against the Colts, their only wins have been against the Cardinals and Seahawks. LA has lost both to the Bengals and Steelers. The Browns defeated the Bengals and split with the Steelers.

The Rams are a finesse team. The Browns are extremely physical. It's a bad matchup for the Rams and because of that this game is priced incorrectly.

The Rams are going from playing a bottom-two defense in Arizona to meeting a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards and passing yards. Night and day.

Before lighting up the Cardinals' dreadful defense last week, the Rams had averaged 14.2 points in their previous four games. The Rams' passing game isn't as good as it looks on paper with Cooper Kupp being close to a non-factor with only six receptions in his last three games for 77 yards.

The Browns can win this game with their tough defense and ground-control running attack. The only thing that can beat the Browns is turnovers. So look for Cleveland to be ultra-conservative on offense knowing that immobile Joe Flacco will be under center.

The Rams have held their last three opponents - Cardinals, Seahawks and Packers - to a combined average of 16.6 points.

The spot sets up well for the 49ers to get a measure of revenge from their, 31-7, loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game last season when Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game.

I find the 49ers to be the most complete team in the NFC when healthy, which they are now. The Eagles rank 29th on pass defense. That is a potentially fatal flaw.

Philadelphia also isn't as healthy as San Francisco with a banged-up receiver corps.

San Francisco is the more rested team having last played on Thanksgiving while the Eagles defense was on the field for a staggering 92 plays in their overtime victory against the Bills last Sunday. Buffalo produced 505 yards against the Eagles.

The 49ers have much to prove here. The Eagles, on the other hand, actually have a bigger game on deck when they face the Cowboys on the road next Sunday night.

Finally free of obtuse offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers produced a season-high 421 yards against the Bengals last week. Kenny Pickett wasn't just restricted to throwing sideline passes like before. Tight end Pat Freiermuth caught nine passes for 120 yards using the middle of the field. Pittsburgh has a strong 1-2 running punch of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris to go with one of the better wide receiver tandems, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens.

The Steelers weren't utilizing all these weapons properly under Canada. Now they are. Pittsburgh also gets to face a worse defense than Cincinnati - Arizona. Only the Commanders have surrendered more points than the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are more dangerous offensively with Kyler Murray and James Conner back. Going by fantasy football numbers, Murray has been a top-10 quarterback since his return three games ago. The Steelers have yielded the seventh-most yards to wide receivers.

The skill position players on these two teams get the publicity, but the defenses are very good.

Louisville ranks 19th in total defense. The Cardinals catch a major break with Florida State QB Jordan Travis out. The Seminoles could only manage 24 points against Florida last week minus Travis. The Gators had surrendered an average of 41.2 points during their last five games before holding Florida State to 24 points.

Backup Seminoles QB Tate Rodemaker completed fewer than half of his passes for only 134 yards and no touchdowns against the Gators. FSU stud wide receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson are far less effective without Travis throwing to them. Florida State is more run-oriented now with Rodemaker under center. Louisville has the 12th stingiest run defense in the nation.  

Florida State has held its last eight opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Seminoles have faced better quarterbacks than Louisville's Jack Plummer.

Note, too, that the game is being played in Charlotte where the weather forecast is for an 80 percent chance of rain. That should ensure more running plays.

This is the Big Ten Conference title game. But nothing was bigger for Michigan than beating Ohio State last week. So this matchup is actually a letdown for the Wolverines.

Iowa's offense has gotten better, but obviously this handicap is all about the Hawkeyes' outstanding defense and Michigan being in a letdown spot.

So I'll take this many points given these factors.

The Hawkeyes rank fourth in the nation in scoring defense holding opponents to 12.2 points a game. Only Penn State has scored more than 16 points against Iowa this season.

Michigan isn't going for style points in this matchup. The Wolverines have become heavily ground-oriented. They'll be content to stay on the ground - like they did against Penn State and Ohio State - and grind out a victory while the clock keeps moving. This is tremendously conducive when taking an underdog getting this many points.

UNLV had been playing well above its head all season - until this past week when it lost at home as a short favorite to San Jose State. The Rebels made huge strides in Barry Odom's first season as their head coach. 

But now the Rebels' lack of experience in big games shows up. This is the first time UNLV is participating in the Mountain West Conference championship game. Boise State, on the other hand, is making its sixth appearance in the last seven years in the Mountain West title game. 

The Broncos have had some close, tough losses. Now, though, they are in a good place under popular interim coach Spencer Danielson going 2-0 since firing Andy Avalos. 

Boise State can ride two of the best running backs in the conference, Ashton Jeanty and George Holani. UNLV doesn't have the defense to stop them ranking 85th in total defense and 69th in run defense.

The Rebels don't play their home games on campus. So even though this game is in Las Vegas at Allegiant Stadium on the Strip - where the Raiders play - there is not much of a home field edge. Boise State travels well, too.  

There were 69 points scored when the teams met earlier in the season with Washington winning, 36-33, at home. I don't see nearly that many points being scored in this rematch. Not only do the teams know each other much better now, but Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. isn't playing nearly as well. Penix had a 20-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the first six games this season. However, in his last six games Penix has a 12-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Oregon's defense has picked up the pace, too, holding Arizona State to 13 points and Oregon State to seven points during its last two games. The Ducks have held their last five opponents to an average of 14.4 points. These were quality opponents, too - Utah, California, USC, Arizona State and Oregon State.

Washington has looked better, too, defensively. The Huskies are giving up an average of 23 points in their last three games facing Utah, Oregon State and Washington State.

It's difficult enough being the visiting team when playing on Thursday night. But it's even worse for the Seahawks because Geno Smith isn't 100 percent and the opponent is Dallas.

The Cowboys have been invincible at home winning 13 in a row. They are 5-0 SU and ATS this season at AT&T Stadium. All five of the Cowboys' home victories have been by at least 20 points. These wins have come against the Jets, Patriots, Rams, Giants and Commanders.

Not good competition. But then again Seattle isn't very good right now. Seattle is 1-3 in its last four games with the lone victory during this span coming against Washington. Smith is cold and dealing with a sore elbow. Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks' best runner, isn't expected to play. The Seahawks have only scored three touchdowns offensively during their last four games.

I don't see Smith keeping pace with Dak Prescott, who is the hottest quarterback in the NFL with an 18-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

There's a chance of rain, but no need to be scared off by the weather because wind isn't a factor.

The Bills have the most beat-up defense in the league with numerous injuries, including ones to their top linebacker and cornerback.

The Eagles have one weakness - pass defense where they rank 28th.

Buffalo is in a much better position to have success attacking that weakness with a change in offensive coordinators from fired Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. This change signals that Josh Allen will be reverting back to his old style of running more and the Bills using multiple wide receiver sets with far more pre-snap motion to freeze defenses.

The Bills put up 32 points on a good Jets defense last week in their first game without Dorsey.

Everybody is talking about how good the Browns' defense is even saying it's Super Bowl caliber. However, Cleveland's defense is far less intimidating on the road. The Browns have surrendered an average of 29.7 points a game in four away games this season.

The Browns also aren't going to have Denzel Ward, their best cornerback.

So I have to side with the Broncos given their strong quarterback edge with Russell Wilson versus rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who will be making only second career NFL start. Cleveland's passing attack is very much limited with Thompson-Robinson behind center.

Sean Payton ran his mouth during the off-season about how bad Nathaniel Hackett was with the Broncos last season. It wasn't a classy thing to do, but Payton was right. Russell Wilson is having a strong bounce back season under Payton with a 19-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

This is a tough situational spot for the Browns. They are off consecutive narrow AFC North Division victories against the Ravens and Steelers. Their intensity could be down a notch going against this AFC West opponent.

The numbers are 64.6 percent completions for 2,389 yards and 15 TD passes. Those numbers belong to Baker Mayfield. Surprised? Mayfield is having a below-the-radar good season. The Buccaneers have no ground attack, but they can effectively air it out.

Mayfield goes from facing the 49ers' daunting defense to drawing Indy's defense that ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 24.8 points a game and is 25th in total defense. Mayfield is at his best finding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sitting between defenders in zone coverage. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is notorious for his complete reliance on Cover-2 type zone defenses.

Shane Streichen, the Colts' coach and offensive guru, has had extra time to prepare with the Colts off their bye. He should dial up plenty of passes with the Buccaneers ranked second-to-last in pass defense. The Buccaneers' secondary is made more vulnerable with numerous injuries. Out are star linebacker Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Dean. In addition, cornerback Carlton Davis and linebacker Devin White are each questionable.

West Virginia was picked to finish last in the Big 12 in the preseason poll. Instead it has been Baylor who has been terrible while the Mountaineers have gone 7-4, including 5-3 in the Big 12.

The 3-8 Bears conclude their season with this matchup. It sure looks like they've already packed it in with four straight losses following a 42-17 road loss to TCU last Saturday. Baylor has one of the worst point spread marks in the country at 2-8-1 ATS. 

Baylor was supposed to be solid on defense under Dave Aranda. That hasn't been the case at all. The Bears rank 117th in scoring defense and 109th in total defense. 

Sparked by dual threat quarterback Garrett Greene, the Mountaineers rank fifth in the nation in rushing. They are averaging 38.6 points in their five games if you discount a 59-20 loss to Oklahoma. 

Baylor doesn't have the players, nor the desire, to keep up. The Bears are likely to start backup QB Sawyer Robertson after Blake Shapen suffered chest and head injuries against TCU. Robertson has made three starts this season. The Bears have averaged 8.6 points during those starts. 

Fading New Mexico State in an obvious letdown spot is the major part of my handicap. The Aggies not only have punched their ticket to face Liberty in the Conference USA championship game, but could also have trouble getting up for this game after what happened last week.

What happened last week was the Aggies upsetting Auburn, 31-10, as 25-point road 'dogs. Never in 27 previous attempts had New Mexico State defeated an SEC opponent.

Jacksonville State has won three in a row. The Gamecocks are 8-3 and rank third in the nation in rushing entering this week. 

Maryland has a Tagovailoa as its quarterback. Unfortunately for the Terrapins that quarterback is Taulia Tagovailoa and not his brother, Tua. The Terrapins' offense has tailed off badly in their last six games dealing with Big Ten opponents. 

Maryland is averaging 20 points during its past half dozen games. Rutgers ranks 11th in the nation in fewest yards allowed. The Scarlet Knights give up 19.1 points a game.

Think defense here - typical of the Big Ten - because I'm not overly fond of Rutgers quarterback, Gavin Wimsatt, either. He hasn't thrown for 200 yards in a game all season. Rutgers is averaging 7.3 points in its last three games. The Scarlet Knights also play extremely slow, ranking in the bottom-10 in tempo. 

Maryland shut out Rutgers in last season's game. 

This clearly is a buy low on the Commanders sell high on the Cowboys play. 

It's just plain too many points in this long-time bitter division rivalry. If the Commanders lose big here on national TV, Ron Rivera could be fired on Black Friday. You have to believe the Commanders are primed to provide their best effort.

But will it be good enough to stay within two touchdowns of Dallas?

Yes. Washington looked horrible in losing to the Giants last week. Let's not forget, though, how tough the Commanders played the Eagles in both of their meetings this season,  losing the first one in overtime and the second, 38-31, after leading in the fourth quarter. 

The Cowboys have played nine of their 11 games against below .500 opponents. Unlike some of the Cowboys' victims such as the Panthers, Giants, Patriots and Jets, the Commanders have back-door capabilities with a top-10 passing attack spearheaded by mobile and resilient Sam Howell, who leads the NFL in passing yards. 

The Lions, to the surprise of their many cynics, are living up to their considerable preseason hype. They are 8-2. Detroit hasn't been that good through 10 games since 1962. The Lions happened to host the Packers that year, too, in their annual Thanksgiving game. Detroit dealt Vince Lombardi's Packers their only defeat of that season in that Thanksgiving matchup.

After that game, Lombardi said the Packers would never again play the Lions on Thanksgiving. The Packers should have followed Lombardi's wishes because this is a terrible situational spot for them.

As the Lions ascend, the Packers descend. Green Bay is 2-5 in its last seven games. The short week really hurts the Packers here as they won't have Aaron Jones and may not have A.J. Dillon, who has a groin injury. The Packers are in free agent country without those two running backs. They also could be without two of their better receivers with Dontayvion Wicks and tight end Luke Musgrave questionable.

The Packers have been depleted in the secondary with possibly all four starters out. They were hoping to get some of them back, but this early-week game is a hindrance to that. Expect Jared Goff to have a much better game than he had against the Bears last week. Goff was on his way to his worst game of the season throwing a season-high three interceptions against the Bears. Yet Detroit still pulled out a five-point victory.

Green Bay was much more optimistic when it hosted the Lions in late September. That was on a Thursday, too. The Packers laid an egg falling behind, 27-3, at halftime before losing, 34-20. The poorly coached Packers defense couldn't contain straight-ahead runner David Montgomery, who rushed for 121 yards and powered to three touchdowns.

It was the fourth straight time the Lions have defeated Green Bay. Look for the Lions to make it five straight victories in convincing fashion.

The Broncos have their confidence up riding a three-game winning streak with the last two victories coming against the Bills and Chiefs.

The keys have been a resurgent Denver defense and a turnaround season from Russell Wilson, who has an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wilson will be helped by the Vikings being minus their second-leading tackler, injured linebacker Jordan Hicks.

The Vikings have pulled off a pair of upset wins the past two weeks with newcomer Joshua Dobbs as their QB. Dobbs is a better runner than thrower. His stock is at an all-time high. Dobbs, though, is not an accurate passer, nor a downfield threat. He's really just a game manager with good legs. This should not be forgotten amidst all of the adulation for him during his remarkable stint with the Vikings.

Dobbs needs weapons and he won't have them here. Justin Jefferson remains out. The Vikings probably will be down to third-string tailback Ty Chandler to handle the bulk of their running. T.J. Hockenson is available, but is severely banged-up.

This has the potential for being a below-the-radar shootout. Trevor Lawrence is way overdue for a big game and he's dropping way down in class after going against the 49ers last week.

The Titans are weak in the secondary. Their statistics haven't looked bad because in their last three games they've faced the following quarterbacks: Baker Mayfield, Kenny Pickett and Taylor Heinicke/Desmond Ridder. Lawrence is way more talented than any of those stiff QB's.

Tennessee coach Mike Vrabel should be astute enough to realize that he needs to establish the pass before he can get Derrick Henry going. This is the opposite approach of what the Titans have been under Vrabel.

Rookie Will Levis has a big arm, a still dangerous DeAndre Hopkins and the Jaguars will be minus their best cornerback, injured Tyson Campbell. Jacksonville has the third-worst pass defense in the NFL. So I expect the Titans to contribute their fair share of points here.

The Texans are 5-0 as an underdog this season. However, when favored they are 0-3 ATS this season. Until this season, the Texans hadn't been favored in 22 consecutive games. Yes, Houston is much improved thanks to C.J. Stroud and better coaching. But the Texans are overpriced because this isn't the Cardinals of past weeks.

Arizona welcomed Kyler Murray back this past Sunday against the Falcons. Murray showed he hasn't lost his magical ability to escape pressure and be a big-time quarterback. The Falcons found that out first-hand losing to the Cardinals.

The offensive season statistics of the Cardinals should be tossed out. Their offense is much more dangerous now with Murray, who has all his weapons healthy with Marquise Brown, James Conner, Michael Wilson, Rondale Moore and emerging tight end force Trey McBride. Murray can attack a banged-up Houston secondary that ranks 24th.

As inconsistent as the Chargers are, I don't see them losing to the Packers. 

Poorly coached on defense and way too inexperienced on offense, the Packers are rapidly heading toward lower-echelon status with their only victory in their last six games coming against the Brett Rypien-led Rams at home. 

Justin Herbert can light up a vulnerable, banged-up Green Bay secondary that was forced to start inexperienced backup cornerbacks Carrington Valetine and Corey Ballentine last Sunday. 

Jordan Love has an 8-to-13 touchdown-to-giveaway ratio in his last seven games. The Chargers can protect their secondary because they have some excellent pass rushers and Green Bay's offensive line has regressed to mediocre status.

The Chargers catch a weather break, too, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the high 40's with no rain and little wind.

Texas is 9-1 with a huge non-conference victory against Alabama. But the Longhorns haven't been so high and mighty lately.

During their last five games, the Longhorns lost to Oklahoma, rolled past BYU, only beat Houston by seven points as a 23 1/2-point favorite, edged Kansas State in overtime and nearly blew a 20-point halftime lead against TCU before holding on for a 29-26 victory last Saturday. The Longhorns have been outscored by 30 points in the fourth quarter during their last two games.

Quinn Ewers isn't an elite QB and the Longhorns lost their best running back, Jonathon Brooks, for the season against TCU when he suffered a knee injury.

Now the Longhorns have to go to Ames to take on spunky and well-coached Iowa State. The Cyclones are 4-1 in their last five games, losing only to Kansas during this stretch. Iowa State has a shot to play in the Big 12 title game if it can beat the Longhorns.

Texas hasn't won in Ames since 2017. The Longhorns nipped the Cyclones, 24-21, at home last season failing to cover as 15 1/2-point favorites. Iowa State had beaten Texas the three previous seasons.

The schedule has turned for these two teams - and so have the results.

South Carolina opened 2-6 because it had the toughest schedule up to that point. But now the Gamecocks sit 4-6 after double-digit victories versus Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt. If the Gamecocks win this game and their finale against Clemson, they'll qualify for a bowl game. So they have motivation.

Kentucky already is bowl eligible thanks to an easy early-season schedule where it went 5-0 being favored by 13 or more points in four of those games. Since then, though, the Wildcats have gone 1-4 SU and ATS. 

This spot isn't good either for the Wildcats. They just got beat up by Alabama and have in-state rival Louisville up next. 

South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler has played much better at home with 15 TD passes compared to only two TD throws on the road.

Woody Hayes would be proud. Ohio State ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest points allowed at 9.9 per game.

Minnesota is a ground-oriented team. The Gophers rank 125th passing. So they'll be staying on the ground.

The key to making this Under work is how many points will Ohio State produce?

The Gophers have a slightly above average defense. Ohio State has Michigan in its game of the year up next. So the Buckeyes won't want to show much. Just dominate early and get out. That was exactly what they did against Michigan State last week.

Ohio State went up 35-3 against the Spartans. The Buckeyes then took their foot off the gas pedal winning, 38-3.

Not only have these two run-oriented teams improved defensively, but they also have greatly slowed down their pace. 

North Carolina State has gone Under in seven of its last eight games. The Wolfpack have held their last three opponents - Wake Forest, Miami and Clemson - to a combined average of 9.6 points. The Wolfpack rank 20th in fewest yards allowed per game and are fourth in the nation in takeaways. 

Virginia Tech ranks 22nd in fewest yards allowed. The Hokies held Syracuse to 10 points and Wake Forest to 13 points during two of their past four games. North Carolina State is averaging 18.2 points in its last four games. 

Both teams rate among the top-10 in slowest tempo during their last three games.  

There hasn't been more than 41 combined points scored during North Carolina State's last four games. The average combined score during their Wolfpack's last four games is 31.5 points. Virginia Tech has been held to 17 or fewer points five times this season.

The timing is right to back the Jets off their Monday night home loss to the Chargers while the Raiders rode the excitement and relief of having Josh McDaniels finally getting fired to a victory against the lowly Giants.

Those results have made the Jets underpriced here and the Raiders overpriced.

Let's start with the Raiders. Their defense is bad even with Maxx Crosby. Rookie Aidan O'Connell isn't any better than Zach Wilson. Davante Adams is wasted in the Raiders' offense. Adams has caught five passes for 45 yards the last two weeks. He hasn't gone above 57 yards receiving in his last five games.

Canning McDaniels was the right thing to do for the Raiders. But interim coach Antonio Pierce isn't a head coach. The Raiders rode enthusiasm and a historically bad Giants offense to an easy victory last week. Pierce didn't really have to do anything. That rare emotion from the Raiders is not sustainable. Pierce is going to find himself way over his head similar to Jeff Saturday with the Colts last year.

The Jets' defense is at least two levels higher, if not three levels above the Raiders. The Jets like to believe they are serious playoff contenders owning victories against the Bills and Eagles. If they are, they can't afford to lose to this opponent.

It's the Jets who should be the more motivated team this week following a bad home loss on Monday night. Getting out of New York actually should work in their favor.

The Seahawks are far from an elite team. But they are not nearly as bad as they appeared against the Ravens this past Sunday. Credit to Baltimore, which looked like the best team in football with that 37-3 victory.

Now the Seahawks drop down from playing the best defense to one of the worst - and they get the Commanders at home. Washington was terrible defensively before they dealt Chase Young and Montez Sweat away. Now the Commanders don't have a pass rush to go with their vulnerable secondary.

Pete Carroll is going to have the Seahawks ready to play following the debacle against the Ravens.

Geno Smith can look good against a bottom-five defense given the weapons Seattle has.

Seattle's defense had been looking pretty good until that Ravens game. The Seahawks had held their previous four opponents to an average of 12.5 points. Washington has become a one-dimensional passing team. Sam Howell has good statistics because the Commanders have become so heavily pass-oriented. But he's average at best and the Commanders have trouble protecting him giving up 44 sacks, second-most in the NFL.

Note, too, the situational aspects. Not only are the Seahawks returning home following a humiliating loss, Washington is fat and happy after beating Bill Belichick's Patriots. This marks Washington's second consecutive road game and an East to West travel itinerary. The Commanders' last seven games all have been played on East Coast time.

If there's one thing the Falcons can do it's beat bad teams such as the Cardinals. Atlanta is 4-2 against .500 or below foes.

Stubborn and unlikeable Arthur Smith has yet to figure out that Bijan Robinson is worth using, but at least he made the right QB switch to Taylor Heinicke, who gives a spark and experience the Falcons lacked with Desmond Ridder under center. Heinicke should get back Atlanta's best wide receiver, Drake London.

The Cardinals are the worst team in the NFL. Maybe they'll improve with Kyler Murray back. It remains to be seen how rusty Murray could be and if he's lost any mobility. The Falcons should be ready for Murray after having just faced another QB, Joshua Dobbs, who has the ability to break containment and get outside.

The Falcons and Smith are a laughing stock right now after losing to Dobbs and the Vikings last week. They'll seek redemption here against this layup opponent.

After three consecutive losses - one of which occurred against the Browns on a missed 41-yard field goal with six seconds left - I'm buying low on the 49ers.

Each team is off their bye. The timing works out much better for San Francisco. I'm expecting Deebo Samuel and offensive left tackle Trent Williams to return to the 49ers' lineup following the extra time off. That will make Brock Purdy reach peak efficiency again.

Jacksonville entered its bye winning and covering five in a row. That momentum could get stalled.

The Jaguars have come up with 18 takeaways, an average of 2.2 per game. If the 49ers play a clean game, they should win being the superior team.

Trevor Lawrence remains inconsistent. He's going to encounter a strong 49ers defense that will be bolstered by the return to health of underrated linebacker Dre Greenlaw and the addition of defensive line stud Chase Young from the Commanders. Nick Bosa is way overdue for a big game, too. It could come here.

The Falcons should have fired Arthur Smith for letting his Falcons lose, 31-28, to the Vikings and Joshua Dobbs last Sunday. It's not going to happen to defensive whiz Dennis Allen and the Saints.

Dobbs was a great story last week learning on the fly after being forced into Minnesota's starting lineup four days after joining the team when rookie QB Jaren Hall was injured. But there are reasons why Dobbs is on his eighth NFL team since coming into the league in 2017. The main reason being he can't throw downfield. Dobbs is 2-9 as an NFL starter.

The Saints have an above average defense. The Vikings rank 29th in rushing. They are without star wide receiver Justin Jefferson and No. 3 wideout K.J. Osborn is questionable as is offensive left tackle Christian Darrisaw. This is the spot where the Vikings are really going to miss Kirk Cousins.

Minnesota has a below average defense. The Saints' offense has picked up with Alvin Kamara back from suspension and increased usage from multi-talented Taysom Hill. New Orleans has gained more than 400 yards in three of its last four games.

There's also a 13 turnover difference between the two teams. The Vikings are minus 5 in takeaways/giveaways, while New Orleans is plus 8 in that department.

Texas holds numerous edges against TCU. The Longhorns' offense still kept humming the past two games under backup QB Maalik Murphy producing 68 points and more than 800 yards of offense in beating Kansas State and BYU. But Murphy committed four turnovers. The Longhorns survived a scare from Kansas State last week before prevailing in overtime. 

The Longhorns keep all of their offensive edges, but should play a much cleaner game with starting QB Quinn Ewers looking good in practice this week and cleared to play. Ewers has accounted for 18 TD's with three interceptions. He should have success throwing against the Horned Frogs' 83rd ranked pass defense. 

TCU is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Horned Frogs were hammered by Kansas State, 41-3, two games ago. I don't see them doing much against a Longhorns' defense that holds foes to fewer than 18 points a game and ranks 33rd in fewest yards allowed. 

The 4-5 Horned Frogs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation. 

This is a get well game for Washington State's sagging offense. California has surrendered at least 50 points in four games this season. I like Cam Ward to have a strong game for the Cougars against Cal's 127th-ranked secondary.

California should have success passing, too. Washington State ranks 118th in pass defense and 88th in run defense. That should mean a strong game for Jaydn Ott, one of the best running backs in the country.

These teams play at a fast pace, too.

This is too high of a total given that Nevada might be lucky to put up two touchdowns even against a bad Utah State defense. The Wolf Pack have scored 14 or fewer points in five of their nine games. Their QB choice is either ineffective Brendon Lewis untested, raw redshirt freshman, A.J. Bianco. 

Nevada's offensive line has allowed 74 tackles for a loss, fourth-highest in the country. Utah State ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West Conference in tackles behind the line of scrimmage. 

The Aggies are just an average rushing team, but they rank 26th in passing yards. Nevada's defense has shown improvement holding their last three opponents to an average of 17 points. Utah State is turnover prone. The Aggies have thrown 13 interceptions. Only four teams have been picked off more times. 

Miami of Ohio has the second-best overall record in the Mid-American Conference behind 8-1 Toledo. The 7-2 RedHawks' only losses have been to the Miami Hurricanes opening week and Toledo.

Akron is 2-7. The Zips' lone win in the MAC came last Wednesday in dramatic style. The Zips staged a highly unlikely rally by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 31-27 victory against rival Kent State in their annual Wagon Wheel game. Akron scored the winning TD with 26 seconds left.

The Zips treated that matchup like their Super Bowl since they won't be going to a bowl game. It was the first time Akron claimed the Wagon Wheel since 2018.

So not only is Miami of Ohio a much better team than Akron, but the Zips are in a monster letdown spot.

Akron had lost by 27 points to Bowling Green in its previous game. Miami of Ohio defeated Bowling Green, 27-0.

Miami of Ohio holds opponents to just 19 points a game. Akron allows more than 29 points per game and ranks in the bottom-10 defensively in points allowed, yards allowed and run defense.

The Redhawks lost their starting QB Brett Gabbert for the season in their loss to Toledo. Miami of Ohio, though, wins in the trenches. The Redhawks beat Ohio, 30-16, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog in their first full game last week without Gabbert. New starting QB Aveon Smith was 7-of-11 passing for 103 yards with one TD and no interceptions in that game.

The Chargers looked great in their last game destroying the Bears at home, 30-13. But the buy sign rarely is on the Chargers because of Brandon Staley. It certainly isn't on then here with the Chargers road chalk against the Jets on Monday night.

Only once in their last 10 games, have the Chargers won two in a row. The Jets have played the tougher schedule and are 3-1 at home this season with point spread covers against the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles. They've beaten the Bills and Eagles straight-up, teams better than the Chargers.

Justin Herbert is off his finest game of the year. However, he was facing the Bears, who have no pass rush and entered this Week 9 ranked third-from-the-bottom in pass defense.

The Jets' defense is really hitting their stride with cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed back from injuries. The Jets rank fifth in pass defense. They've held their last three opponents to an average of 15 points a game.

Minus All-Pro center Corey Linsley, Herbert was sacked five times by the Chiefs two weeks ago. Herbert also is without two of his three best wide receivers with Mike Williams and Josh Palmer both out.  

Zach Wilson should have one of his better games. The Chargers give up 24 points a game and rank 31st in pass defense.

It's no coincidence the Bengals put up 31 points on the road against a strong 49ers defense last week. Joe Burrow is finally healthy. He looked great. The rest of the Bengals are healthy, too. Joe Mixon actually displayed some explosiveness for the first time this season.

The Bills have played the following QB's in their last three games: Tyrod Taylor, Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield. Now they face an elite QB with one of the most banged-up defenses in the NFL. Burrow can exploit Buffalo's long list of key defensive players who are out the way those other QB stiffs couldn't.

Buffalo, in turn, has opened up its offense going back to three wide receiver sets, involving potential star pass-catching rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid more and having Josh Allen run in his reckless fashion. The Bills are playing faster using more no-huddle, all great for the Over.

The weather should be fine for this Sunday night matchup with the forecast calling for temperatures in the low 40's, little wind and clear skies.

If there's one game Panthers coach Frank Reich wants to win more than any other it's this one against the Colts, a team he was fired from after coaching them the previous five years.

Are the 1-6 Panthers capable of that?

The buy sign is on after Carolina came out of its bye week with a 15-13 home win against the Texans. The Panthers were better offensively because they made a switch in play-callers going to Thomas Brown, who wasn't afraid to let Bryce Young throw on first down. The Panthers also made a smart move decreasing the role of Miles Sanders, who is one of the worst running backs in the league.

The Colts can't be road chalk because of their horrendous defense. They are giving up an NFL-worst 28.6 points per game. Indy ranks 28th in total defense. If anything, the Colts' defense is getting worse allowing an average of 38 points in their past three games. They just surrendered 38 points and 511 yards to a moribund Saints offense last week at home.

The Commanders' already horrific defense just traded defensive linemen Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Those two were maybe their best defenders. The Patriots are minus pass rusher Matthew Judon and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Now linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley is questionable with a hamstring injury. Those are New England's three top defensive players. 

Yet the total still remains low by today's NFL offensively-enabled numbers. 

Sam Howell has put up good numbers despite being sacked the most of any QB. He has reliable receiving targets. The Patriots have permitted the ninth-most passing TD's and 11th-most receiving yards. New England is tied for the second-fewest sacks with 15. 

Mac Jones should have a strong game because he'll have a clean pocket. The Commanders rank in the bottom-four in scoring defense, defensive total yards and pass defense.

If you're going to undergo a youth movement at the skill positions, you better have good coaching. The Packers lack leadership both on the field and on the sidelines. Their defense underperforms to their talent level and Matt LaFleur offers nothing innovative to help Jordan Love. It's obvious the Packers' success during LaFleur's previous three seasons was due to Aaron Rodgers carrying the team.

Having said all this, I don't believe the Packers lose to the Rams. Green Bay is mediocre at best, but it is not bottom-five. The Rams are a bottom-five unit with Brett Rypien at QB. Note, too, the Rams are going to be without their second-best defensive player as linebacker Ernest Jones is out with a knee injury.

This is the Packers' season and they have a lay-up opponent at home because of Matthew Stafford likely sitting out.

I don't trust the Packers to cover any margin. But I will throw a peanut on them on the money line asking them to just win the game.

The game hasn't even started and already Clayton Tune is hearing Myles Garrett's footsteps. 

I didn't want to jump the gun on this one, but now that we know Deshaun Watson will be under center for Cleveland instead of P.J. Walker and the rookie Tune will be in the Lion's Den not mobile Kyler Murray, I'm going to lay the wood with Cleveland. 

This is a give-up game for the Cardinals. If it weren't, they would have held on to Joshua Dobbs, or started Murray. Tune is facing a Cleveland defense that gives up the fewest yards per game and also ranks No. 1 in pass defense. He doesn't have a reliable running back either with James Conner a week away from returning. 

Watson was coming off his best game as a Brown on Sept. 24 against the Titans where he was 27-of-33 passing for 289 yards and two TD's. His QB rating was 123.4. However, he's thrown just five passes since then as the Browns have given him the baby treatment holding him out of games. But now Watson is ready.

He gets an Arizona defense that ranks in the bottom-seven in scoring defense and defensive total yards. 

Defense trumps offense. That's what it comes down to in this matchup, especially with Alabama in a revenge spot.

LSU nipped the Crimson Tide, 32-31, in overtime at home last season. Now the Tide gets the Tigers in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama is 7-1 with a lone loss to Texas. Since that defeat, the Crimson Tide have rolled to six consecutive victories going 5-1 ATS.

The Crimson Tide rank in the top 17 in fewest points allowed and fewest yards given up per game. They are giving up just 15.1 points in their last six games.

LSU is the best offensive team in the country. Daniels is moving up on the Heisman Trophy list. But the Tigers are similar to USC, a great offense with a poor defense. LSU surrendered 31 points to Arkansas and 55 points to Mississippi. By comparison, Alabama held Mississippi to 10 points and Arkansas to 21 points.

The Tigers' defense is improving. However, Alabama's offense also has shown improvement. A key here is LSU injuries on defense. The Tigers will be without defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo and three of their best defensive backs.