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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-31-17	Jaguars v. Titans -123		10-15	Win	100	5 h 51 m	Show
The money line is low enough for me to get involved here. The Titans beat the Jaguars early in the season on the road. Tennessee is in must-win mode. I findi it hard to believe that the Jaguars will play their starters, and go all out, the entire game with nothing to play for. That would just expose them to injury. The Titans play much better at home having won nine of their last 11 home contests.
12-31-17	Cardinals v. Seahawks -7	Top	26-24	Loss	-122	133 h 30 m	Show
Seattle is one of those teams in must-win mode Sunday. If the Seahawks beat the Cardinals and Carolina defeats or ties Atlanta then Seattle makes the playoffs. The Panthers-Falcons game has been moved back to start at the same time as the Cardinals-Seahawks matchup. The Panthers are in the postseason but have motivation to beat the Falcons as they have a chance to gain a No. 2 seeding and a first-round bye with a victory. I don't see the Seahawks losing to the Cardinals, who are extremely banged-up, have performed poorly on the road and have a stiff at quarterback in Drew Stanton. Russell Wilson is in the MVP discussion having his finest season. The Cardinals have a strong run defense, but are mediocre versus the pass. Wilson has the receiving depth and mobility to be highly effective against the Cardinals defense. Arizona has has lost five of its seven road contests while going 1-6 ATS. The Cardinals' two away victories were against the 3-12 Colts in overtime and the 49ers, who were winless at the time. In their last three games, the Cardinals have managed just two touchdowns. Their offensive line is decimated with D.J. Humphries, Jared Veldheer, Mike Iupati and Earl Watford all out. Seattle's defensive front seven should easily win the battle of the trenches. Arizona is down to third-stringer Kerwynn Williams as its main runner with David Johnson and Adrian Peterson out. Seattle has maybe the toughest outdoor venue for opponents in the NFL. The Seahawks have revenge for the Cardinals beating them on Christmas Eve last year that knocked them out of the No. 2 seed. The Seahawks have a special dislike for Stanton still recalling his sideline celebration from four years ago when the Cardinals defeated them at Century Link Field. The 33-year-old Stanton wasn't good then and he's not good now. He's completed only 51.2 percent of his throws, which is right in line with his career percent. He is an inaccurate, career journeyman who lacks pass protection and a ground game. The Cardinals are tied for fifth in the NFL in giveaways with 24, including turning the ball over twice during each of their last five games. The hard-hitting Seahawks defense, headed by Bobby Wagner and Earl Thomas, can take advantage. The Legion of Boom is wounded, but far from dead holding the Cowboys to no touchdowns this past Sunday despite the game being played in Dallas and Ezekiel Elliott's return from suspension.Now the Seahawks are home against a much weaker offense. The line has climbed since I released this play, but I see this as a total kill spot for the Seahawks.
12-30-17	Wisconsin v. Miami-FL UNDER 45	Top	34-24	Loss	-110	26 h 32 m	Show
I like both of these defenses very much. But it goes farther than that. The Badgers are a running team that plays at a very slow tempo. The Badgers aren't going to get caught up in any type of track meet or passing game. Not with Alex Hornibrook at quarterback. Wisconsin learned its lesson in the Big Ten title game loss to Ohio State when its offensive line got whipped at the line of scrimmage. Miami has an excellent defensive line and is highly opportunistic. The Hurricanes have forced 22 turnovers during their last seven games. Hornibrook has been picked off 15 times this season. The Badgers will stay on the ground even if they fall behind. How good is Wisconsin's defense? It ranked No. 1 in fewest yards per game and in run defense. The Badgers also surrendered the third-fewest points per game in the nation just 13.2. Miami is going to struggle to move the ball. Hurricanes quarterback Malik Rosier isn't a high percentage passer completing less than 55 percent of his throws. The Hurricanes averaged just 8.5 points in their last two games against Pittsburgh and Clemson.
12-29-17	NC State -6.5 v. Arizona State	Top	52-31	Win	100	93 h 28 m	Show
North Carolina State is a superior team to Arizona State. Now throw in the Sun Devils coaching upheaval and I see North Carolina State winning this game by more than a touchdown. The Wolfpack were in national playoff contention, but couldn't beat Notre Dame and Clemson. No shame in that. The Wolfpack aren't in that elite class. But they are a level higher than Arizona State. North Carolina State has bowl experience winning bowl games in two of the past three seasons. The Wolfpack field one of the most experienced teams in the country with 22 seniors. These seniors have accomplished going to a bowl three straight seasons so they want to end their college careers on a high note. Ryan Finley threw for more than 3,000 yards for North Carolina State this season while completing nearly 64 percent of his passes. He has a deep group of receivers, who can take advantage of Arizona State's 118th pass defense. The Sun Devils ranked 88th in scoring defense allowing 31.2 points per game. North Carolina State's defense is much stronger giving up fewer than 25 points per game and ranking 28th in run defense. The Wolfpack have a stout defensive line and ASU allowed the 10th-most sacks in the country. The kicker here is Arizona State's coaching situation. The Sun Devils fired Todd Graham and hired Herm Edwards, which was a bizarre hire in my opinion. The Sun Devils' offensive coordinator, Billy Napier, and defensive coordinator, Phil Bennett, then left the program. Napier departed to accept the head coaching job at Louisiana-Lafayette and Bennett left for personal reasons. So newcomer Edwards doesn't have either of his coordinators.
12-28-17	Stanford +3 v. TCU	Top	37-39	Win	100	14 h 47 m	Show
These are two strong defensive teams. Stanford is holding foes to 21.5 point a game, 25th-best in the country. The oddsmaker, of course, knows this. That's why we have a relatively low total here. So points matter. And I'll gladly accept them with Stanford, who I rate as better than TCU. Stanford has gone to a bowl game nine straight seasons. The Cardinal has won their last three bowl games. I really like them as underdogs in the David Shaw era as they've covered 80 percent of the time in 15 games in that role under Shaw. Stanford beat Washington by eight points and Notre Dame by 18 as an underdog this season while also covering as a 'dog against USC in the Pac-12 championship game. TCU quarterback Kenny Hill has failed to step up in big games. His worst games came away from home, too. I prefer Stanford's power ground attack headed by speedster Bryce Love. The Horned Frogs are not used to facing this type of offense. They play an unorthodox 3-3-5 defense. This defense is geared to stop the numerous spread offenses in the Big 12 not the type of offense Stanford employs.
12-27-17	Missouri v. Texas +3	Top	16-33	Win	100	30 h 36 m	Show
Missouri is overrated and Texas' Tom Herman is one of the great underdog coaches. The Tigers haven't beaten a good team all season. All of their SEC victories were against sub .500 teams. Texas has a much better defense than Missouri and I like Herman far more than Tigers coach Barry Odom. If you go back to when he was Ohio State's offensive coordinator and go through when he was the head man at Houston and now at Texas, Herman is an astounding 15-1 ATS (94%) as an underdog. The Longhorns rank sixth in the nation in run defense. They held five opponents to 14 points or less. Texas' defense will be able to handle Missouri's spread attack having faced multiple spread offenses this season along with great quarterbacks Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph. Texas went 3-0 ATS against those quarterbacks holding USC to 24 points in regulation, Oklahoma to under 30 points and Oklahoma State to 10 points in regulation, which was 36 points under the Cowboys' season average. The Longhorns have their quarterbacks healthy and are facing an inferior defensive team.
12-24-17	Seahawks v. Cowboys OVER 46.5	Top	21-12	Loss	-110	85 h 8 m	Show
The Legion of Boom is dead. It doesn't exist without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. Injuries, attribution and low morale have turned Seattle's dominant defense into a mediocre unit vulnerable to a great running back. During its last two games, Seattle has given up a combined 72 points to the Jaguars and Rams. Leonard Fournette rushed for 101 yards against Seattle and Todd Gurley ran for 152 yards and three touchdowns this past Sunday versus the Seahawks. Now Seattle draws maybe the best running back in football, Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is going to be fresh returning from a six-game suspension. Elliott's presence transforms Dallas' entire offense especially Dak Presoctt, making him far more dangerous with play-action and targeting downfield receivers. The Cowboys averaged 31.6 points a game during Elliott's past six games never once falling below 28 points in this span. The desperate Seahawks are going to put up their share of points, too. Russell Wilson is having his finest season one worthy of league MVP status. The Cowboys have defensive injuries, too, particularly in the secondary and at linebacker. The Cowboys have recorded only five sacks in their last six games, lowest in the league during this time frame. So Seattle's below average offensive line isn't going to be as exposed as normal.
12-24-17	Rams v. Titans +7		27-23	Win	100	30 h 32 m	Show
There's line inflation here because of the Rams trampling the Seahawks, 42-7, and the Titans losing to the 49ers after also falling to the Cardinals two weeks ago. The Rams are in a tough situational spot now and the Titans finally are back home where they play much better. Tennessee has won nine of its last 10 home games. Marcus Mariota has had four of his five highest rated passing games at home this season with the other one coming against San Francisco this past Sunday. The Rams have a banged-up secondary. Just two weeks ago, they surrendered four touchdown passes to the Eagles. The lookahead line for this game last week before Sunday's action was Rams minus three. So the line has more than doubled. The Rams were impressive against the Seahawks. But Seattle also played terrible, by far its worst game of the season. Still, that was the Rams' biggest victory in more than a decade and all but clinched the NFC West Division title for them. The Rams have a lot of youth, including their head coach. They have to travel cross-country in an obvious letdown spot right before Christmas. They're going to encounter a desperate and physical Titans team. Tennessee has the ability to control clock, taking advantage of LA's 24th-ranked run defense with one of the better running back tandems in the league with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. A hidden key to the Rams' success is their special teams. Now those special teams took a monster hit with Greg Zuerlein out for the season with a herniated disc in his back. He was having one of the best kicking seasons in NFL history leading the league in scoring while making 38 of 40 field goals. So the Rams go from having the best kicker in football to going with unknown Sam Ficken.
12-24-17	Broncos +3.5 v. Redskins		11-27	Loss	-110	30 h 31 m	Show
The bar is not set very high here for Denver to cover, plus I have to believe the veteran Broncos show up knowing Vance Joseph isn't likely to be fired and the roster will be retooled during the off-season. This is an important showcase game for the Broncos especially quarterbacks Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Both could see action. I don't like either player, although Osweiler is coming off a rare splendid performance. Keep in mind, though, Washington ranks 29th in scoring defense and will be without Zach Brown, the top tackler in the league. The Redskins defense had to defend 80 plays last week, a monster number made worse by this being so late in the season. So they could easily wilt. The Broncos will be the much fresher team since they played last Thursday. I do like the Broncos' defense very much. This is a defense that carried them to a Super Bowl victory just two seasons ago and still retains dominant pass rushers and lock down defensive backs. Denver has been playing its best defense during the past two weeks holding the Jets and Colts to a combined 13 points and less than 350 yards. The Broncos defense can dominate weak offenses and Washington's offense is sputtering done in by a cluster injury problem in the offensive line and its top weapons out. The Redskins permitted 23 sacks last season. They've allowed 38 already this season and will be minus their best offensive lineman with left tackle Trent Williams out with a knee injury. The Redskins could have another new offensive line combination this week depending on injuries. Kirk Cousins can't generate much offense anymore because of his makeshift offensive line and down his top receiver, Jordan Reed, and best running back, Chris Thompson. Washington has weak special teams, too, so its offense doesn't often get good starting field position. I'm expecting the crowd count to be way down with this game rendered meaningless so the Redskins' home field advantage is reduced.
12-23-17	Texas Tech v. South Florida -3		34-38	Win	100	26 h 56 m	Show
I like South Florida's defense and its quarterback, senior Quinton Flowers. These strengths provide South Florida a strong enough edge to cover this short number. Flowers is a dangerous dual threat with his passing and running ability. The Red Raiders faced three elite quarterbacks this season - Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Will Grier - and lost to all three of them. Texas Tech doesn't have the offense to trade points with South Florida especially going against a rugged Bulls defense that ranked 37th in scoring defense, 28th in total defense and 22nd in run defense. Texas Tech Nic Shimonek was ineffective enough to get pulled late in the season. The Red Raiders earned their bowl berth by getting to six wins with a 27-23 victory against Texas to finish the regular season. That victory likely saved Kliff Kingsbury's job. I doubt the Red Raiders can reach the same level of intensity now that Kingsbury is safe and the team achieved their goal of making a bowl game.
12-22-17	Central Michigan +3.5 v. Wyoming	Top	14-37	Loss	-115	11 h 3 m	Show
Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen gets the publicity. That's partly why the Cowboys are favored here. But Allen is a better pro prospect than college player. I find him to be overhyped due in part from a drop in statistics from his junior season plus having a mediocre offensive line and lack of playmakers surrounding him. He's also not 100 percent bothered by a sore shoulder. The Cowboys' leading rusher produced just 474 yards and they had only one receiver with more than 27 receptions. By contrast, Central Michigan quarterback Shane Morris is surrounded by skill position weapons. The Chippewas improved as the season went on. They enter this bowl game playing their best ball winning and covering their past five games. Central Michigan averaged 41.2 points in its past five games. The Chippewas beat good MAC teams, too, during this stretch defeating Northern Illinois, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan by a combined 26 points. The spot isn't bad either for the Chippewas. They are more excited and motivated to be traveling to a bowl game while this venue is a letdown for Wyoming, which played in the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego last season. I consider Central Michigan to be the superior team. So getting points is a nice bonus.
12-21-17	Temple v. Florida International OVER 57		28-3	Loss	-115	28 h 2 m	Show
You can toss the season statistics out when handicapping this matchup. Both offenses for Temple and Florida International are better than their season numbers. Both offenses have gotten hot down the stretch and I see that continuing in this Gasparilla Bowl to be played in sunny, 75-degree weather in St. Petersburg, Fla. Temple is coming off a 43-point performance against Tulsa. The Owls' offense picked up after a quarterback switch to Frank Nutile. If you discount their game against Central Florida, the Owls averaged 34.8 points in their last five games once Nutile became the established quarterback. Florida International closed out its season averaging 52 points during its final two regular season games in victories against Western Kentucky and Massachusetts. The Panthers scored 30 or more points in four of their last six games. They also led the nation in scoring percentage inside the red zone going 39 for 40. Temple has one of the worst red-zone defenses in the country.
12-20-17	Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU		51-10	Win	100	55 h 46 m	Show
I like both team's offenses. But Louisiana Tech has the better defense and has far more bowl experience. SMU also is going through a coaching change making this an awkward spot. Chad Morris led the Mustangs to their first bowl game since 2012. But Morris resigned after three season at SMU to become coach at Arkansas. This was less than two weeks ago. Morris took most of his offensive staff with him leaving new head coach Sonny Dykes to go over bowl preparations. I'm not a fan of Dykes. I prefer Louisiana Tech coach Skip Holtz much more than Dykes. Louisiana Tech has been to a bowl game each of the last three seasons - winning each time. This is the inaugural Frisco Bowl, which is being played in Frisco, Texas. It's less than 30 miles from Frisco to Dallas. So SMU could have bigger crowd support. On the other hand, it has to be boring for the Mustangs not getting to go anywnhere for their first bowl appearance in five years. Louisiana Tech has experience in this region, too. The Bulldogs won the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth last year and also was victorious in the Heat of Dallas Bowl in 2014. SMU allowed 35.5 points a game. The Mustangs ranked 122nd in total defense and 113th in scoring defense. SMU enters this matchup going 1-3 in its last four games with the lone winning during this span coming at home, 41-38, against Tulane in a game it failed to cover. The Mustangs have covered only one of their last seven games. Louisiana Tech ranked 66th in total defense and scoring defense giving up 26.7 points. The Bulldogs are good at forcing turnovers, too, tying for 11th in interceptions with 16.
12-17-17	Titans +2 v. 49ers		23-25	Push	0	58 h 36 m	Show
The 49ers are rejuvenated thanks to Jimmy Garoppolo. But let's not go overboard here. San Francisco is 2-0 since Garoppolo became the starter beating the Bears and Texans. The Titans are a clear level higher than those teams if not two levels better. The Titans are off a bad 12-7 road loss to Arizona this past Sunday. Before that, though, the Titans had won six of seven. Tennessee's offense is capable of much better than it has shown lately. Marcus Mariotta has had some bad luck with interceptions. He remains an emerging franchise quarterback with two solid running backs. The Titans' defense is somewhat underrated having allowed 20 or fewer points in all but one of their last seven games. The Titans are very much in the playoff picture holding down the No. 1 spot right now for an AFC wild-card berth. However, their last two regular season games are against the Rams and Jaguars. So they can't afford to lose this game. The Titans are putting tremendous effort and concentration into securing a win here. That's why the team has spent this week in California practicing on grass in warm weather after playing in Arizona this past Sunday. The 49ers are improved due to Garoppolo. They still aren't a good team, though. Far from it. San Francisco doesn't usually play well either versus good teams going 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games against above .500 opponents. The 49ers have failed to cover in 10 of their last 13 home games, too.
12-17-17	Rams v. Seahawks OVER 47		42-7	Win	100	58 h 31 m	Show
Seattle's once dominant defense isn't so fierce when five of its top six defenders are likely to be out. The Seahawks definitely won't have their best cornerback, Richard Sherman, nor their best pass rusher, Cliff Avril. Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor also is sidelined. I'd be surprised if Pro Bowl linebackers Bobby Wagner (hamstring) and K.J. Wright (concussion) can play, too, after both were injured last Sunday. The Seahawks gave up 30 points to Blake Bortles and the Jaguars this past Sunday because of their depleted defense. Now they face the No. 2 scoring offense in the league. The Rams average 30.5 points. Their offense has been very consistent putting up 32 or more points in five of the last seven games. The Rams have a top-five runner in Todd Gurley and the top kicker in football, Greg Zuerlein. He's made 36 of 38 field goals this season. Given Gurley, decent receivers and much better coaching, Jared Goff has emerged as a solid quarterback in his second season. The Rams get back Robert Woods, who has been their most consistent receiver. Offensive left tackle Andrew Whitworth, who is having another strong season, is on track to play, too, after nursing a knee injury. So the Rams offense should be at full strength. Russell Wilson makes Seattle's offense dangerous. Wilson has accounted for 32 touchdowns, including running or passing in each of the Seahawks' last 25 offensive touchdowns. He's a strong MVP candidate. The Seahawks are averaging 25.7 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 24 points in each of their past four games, including getting 24 points on the road against Jacksonville, the top defensive team in the NFL. The Rams defense, like the Seahawks defense, is banged-up. LA's secondary is weakened by cornerback Kayvon Webster being out with a torn Achilles tendon suffered last week. The Rams have other injuries in their defensive backfield and middle linebacker Alec Ogletree is dealing with a hyberextended elbow. Weather-wise, light rain is expected but temperatures will be in the 50s with little wind.
12-17-17	Packers v. Panthers -137	Top	24-31	Win	100	54 h 19 m	Show
Everything is being made of Aaron Rodgers returning for this game. There are four factors to consider, though, that should temper the high enthusiasm of Rodgers' return. No. 4: Rodgers has missed the past seven games. So he could be rusty. Very rusty. His teammates have made the adjustment to Brett Hundley. Now they must revert back to Rodgers against a defense that gives up the fifth-fewest yards in the NFL. No. 3: Rodgers was out with a broken right collarbone. He's going to have to be careful and the Packers know this. That should limit his running, which is one of the things that make him great. Rodgers can't afford to take any shots. Green Bay has surrendered 43 sacks. That's third-highest in the league. Rodgers must curb is recklessness. He will be under orders to be careful. That could reduce his effectiveness. No. 2: Carolina is home and tied for first in the NFC South Division. The Panthers need to win, too. No. 1: Carolina is the better team. The Panthers are 9-4 and playing well with five wins in their last six games. The Panthers have a far better defense than the Packers, who rank 26th in total yards, don't rush the passer well and have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Carolina just put up 31 points on the Vikings, who have a top-three defense. Cam Newton can go hot and cold. This should be one of his hot games against a defense that especially struggles versus mobile quarterbacks. The Packers have beaten one winning team since Week 2 and that was 7-6 Dallas. Rodgers coming back is a nice story. But the deck is stacked against him and Green Bay in this matchup.
12-16-17	Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State OVER 61.5	Top	35-30	Win	100	279 h 7 m	Show
The oddsmaker thought he set a high enough total on this game. He didn't. Middle Tennessee State's overall offensive statistics are skewed because its star quarterback, Brent Stockstill, missed around half the season. Stockstill returned four games ago and Middle Tennessee State averaged 36 points in those games. Arkansas State has one of the most potent offenses in the country ranking 11th in total yards at nearly 500 a game, sixth in passing yards and 15th in points averaging 38.5 per game. Neither team is strong defensively against the pass. So it's easy to forsee a shootout between Stockstill and Justice Hansen. The Red Wolves rank 91st in pass defense. Another plus for the Over is that each team plays at a fast tempo.
12-14-17	Broncos -140 v. Colts	Top	25-13	Win	100	19 h 9 m	Show
This truly has been a lost season for Denver. But the Broncos can handle weak teams and have enough veteran pride to show up for this nationally televised game. If the Broncos play to their talent level on defense and Trevor Siemian plays under control - like he did last week - Denver should have no problem against a very bad Colts team. The Broncos give up the fewest yards per game and second-fewest yards through the air. Von Miller can terrorize Jacoby Brissett, who has been sacked more than any other quarterback this season. The Colts' porous offensive line is made even worse by center Ryan Kelly being out with a concussion. The Colts are the third-lowest scoring team in the league at 16.3 points per game. They rely on 34-year-old Frank Gore to help move the chains. Gore carried the ball 34 times, a career-hign during the Colts' overtime loss in the snow last Sunday against the Bills. He's not going to have anything left in the tank for this short turnaround game. Denver should be able to move the ball against the Cotls, who rank 31st in points allowed at 26.4 per game. Indy also allows the the fourth-most yards per game. They have three rookies in their defensive backfield. Their top cornerback, Rashaan Melvin, is out with a hand injury. The Broncos had their flagging confidence restored last Sunday ending an eight-game losing streak by shutting out the Jets, 23-0. They are capable of shutting out the Colts, too.
12-10-17	Ravens v. Steelers -4		38-39	Loss	-108	30 h 22 m	Show
It's easy to point out how the Steelers have won seven in a row and are 9-0 during their last nine regular-season primetime regualr season games. This handicap for me, though, comes down to trusting the Steelers offense at home to easily outscore Baltimore's pop-gun attack. Ben Roethlisberger is a beast at home. I regard Joe Flacco as one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Baltimore's run defense has gotten much better, but its secondary is very much weakened without its top cornerback, Jimmy Smith. The Ravens are vulnerable to Antonio Brown and if their safeties help out with pass coverage - as they need to do - then running lanes open up more for Le'Veon Bell, the leading rusher in the NFL. Pittsburgh is down linebacker Ryan Shazier, their best all-around defensive player. But the Steelers have a very strong pass rush ranking No. 2 with 40 sacks. Shazier does not have a sack on the season. I don't see the Ravens keeping up with Roethilisberger and Co.
12-10-17	Jets v. Broncos +1.5		0-23	Win	100	28 h 39 m	Show
Yes, the Jets have overachieved and Denver has been the most disappointing team in the AFC. But making the Jets a road favorite in this matchup is going too far overboard. The Jets have done their damage at home. They are 1-4 on the road with their lone away victory coming against the winless Browns in a game they were outplayed and outyarded in. Denver's defense has top 10 talent. Many of the same defenders were on the Broncos' Super Bowl team of just two years ago. The Broncos can handle journeyman Josh McCown at home. McCown could be without his top receiver as Robby Anderson sustained a hamstring injury during practice Thursday. The Broncos have been done in by atrocious quarterback play. Trevor Siemian, though, is an upgrade on Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch. Siemian is better than he was last week and is operating against a bottom-10 Jets defense.
12-10-17	Packers v. Browns +3.5		27-21	Loss	-105	70 h 25 m	Show
Points are going to be at a premium in this cold-weather matchup with winds in the 15 mph range. The Packers aren't good enough minus Aaron Rodgers to lay points on the road. The Browns are winless. Yes, that is a fact. It's a mistake, though, to underrate them in this home matchup when they are starved for a victory and catch the Packers perhaps looking ahead to next week when Aaron Rodgers is eligible to return. Cleveland can play effective defense. The Browns have better defensive statistics than the Packers giving up the 10th-fewest yards in the league. The Packers, by contrast, rank 25th in defensive yardage. The Browns held the Chargers to 19 points in Los Angeles last week, while the Packers gave up nearly 400 yards to the Buccaneers at home this past Sunday despite Tampa Bay missing its best running back, Doug Martin, and two of its better starting offensive linemen. The Packers have injuries in their secondary. Cleveland has receiving weapons now to take advantage with Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman healthy to join athletic tight end David Njoku and running back Duke Johnson out of the backfield. Quarterback has been the Browns' downfall. But if there's a quarterback who has been as bad, if not even worse than DeShone Kizer, it is Brett Hundley, who has a 70.8 passer rating and a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Hundley passed for just 84 yards last week against the Buccaneers, who rank second-to-last in pass defense and were missing starting cornerback Vernon Hargreaves and safety T.J. Ward. Hundley offers no downfield passing threat. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have done nothing with Hundley at quarterback. The Packers are going to take a conservative approach here running Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones knowing aggressive Browns defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is going to be putting in exotic blitz packages to take advantage of Hundley's lack of pocket presence. The strength of the Browns is their sixth-ranked run defense. So don't look for the Packers to put up many points. I find Mike McCarthy to be an extremely overrated coach fortunate to be propped up by Rodgers. The Packers are 4-15-1 under McCarthy when Rodgers hasn't played.
12-10-17	Cowboys v. Giants +4		30-10	Loss	-110	25 h 12 m	Show
It's been an emotional week for the Giants with Ben McAdoo getting fired and Eli Manning restored as the starting quarterback. Usually controversial weeks are not good for the concentration of a team. But in the Giants' case this is good because it should wake them up. The Giants have underachieved all season. Part of this has been because of a toxic atmosphere. Now, at least for this game against a hated division rival, the Giants should play with passion and intensity. Their defense still has good players and Manning is a big upgrade on Geno Smith. New York has held Dallas to an average of 15 points during the past three meetings. The Cowboys aren't that good without suspended Ezekiel Elliott. Not having him has trickled down to everyone including Dak Prescott, who has a 64.3 passer rating minus Elliott compared to 97.9 with him. Both teams are 1-3 in their last four games. The Cowboys' win during this span came against the Redskins last week at home, 38-14. Dallas was not as special as that score might indicate, though, as the Redskins allowed a punt return for a touchdown and were minus four in turnovers. The Cowboys averaged just 4.2 yards per play. Dallas also has a long injury list. I expect cornerback Orlando Scandrick and David Irving, their second-best pass rusher, to be out for sure.
12-10-17	Bears +6.5 v. Bengals		33-7	Win	100	22 h 15 m	Show
The Bears aren't good. But neither are the 5-7 Bengals. Cincinnati has just two victories by more than four points. The Bengals are in no position to lay this many points following their brutal Monday night loss to the Steelers, which realistically eliminated them from playoff contention. Marvin Lewis is coaching his final season. He's not going to be able to get his team up for the lowly Bears after they blew a 17-point lead to the Steelers. The Bengals would be hard-pressed to cover a touchdown even if they were healthy - which they are not. The battered Bengals may be minus seven starters if star defensive tackle Geno Atkins can't go because of a toe injury. The Bengals already are down their best running back, Joe MIxon, and top tackler, Vontaze Burfict. They also aren't likely to have linebacker Nick Virgil and three/fourths of their starting secondary with Adam Jones, Dre Kilpatrick and Shawn Williams all injured. I'm not a fan of John Fox. But I can at least trust the Bears to put forth a strong effort against Cincinnati. Fox is coaching for his future. HIs team won't quit. The Bengals offense isn't strong enough to product many points, which the oddsmaker acknowledges with this low total, and their defense is extremely beat-up. The Bears will hang in and are live 'dogs to win straight-up.
12-07-17	Saints v. Falcons +1.5	Top	17-20	Win	100	27 h 4 m	Show
It's always rough being the visitor for the Thursday night NFL game. The Saints' journey is made even more difficult by how late it is in the season when the wear-and-tear really takes a toll. The Saints had a very early bye, too, being idle in Week 5. This marks their third straight marquee matchup having traveled to LA to face the Rams two weeks ago and hosting the Panthers this past Sunday, which was a late day start. These two teams are very even with balanced, potent offenses and improved defenses. But getting the Falcons at home on a short week is worth more than a normal home field advantage especially with the Saints being the more banged-up team. Atlanta has been home for the past three weeks so it has a nice situational edge. Both teams are going to play hard. The Falcons have more at stake, though, besides protecting their home field. They need to win to keep the Saints from taking a major step in clinching the NFC South Division. A loss also would drop the Falcons to 7-6 and put them in the thick of trying to qualify for a highly-competitive wild-card spot. Drew Brees is a future Hall of Famer. Matt Ryan is the reigning MVP. Brees historically has been less effective on the road. Julio Jones is the best wideout on the field. He'll be especially dangerous if Marshon Lattimore, the Saints prize rookie cornerback, can't play, or is hobbled, by an ankle injury that has caused him to miss the past two games. If you can't contain Jones, you can't beat the Falcons. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are one of the best running back tandems in the league. They are trumped, however, by Mark Ingram and Alvin Karma. They've scored 16 of the Saints' NFL-leading 19 rushing touchdowns. There is a catch here, though: The Saints have key injuries besides Lattimore. Ingram has a toe injury. He didn't practice Wednesday and is questionable. Karma is a sprinter not a workhorse. His effectiveness could be compromised without Ingram to do the heavy lifting. There is more. The Saints also could be minus two starting offensive linemen. Left guard Andrus Peat already has been declared out with a groin injury. He had played in every one of New Orleans' snaps on offense. Left tackle Terron Armstread is questionalbe. He missed last Sunday's game with a groin injury, too. So the short week really hits the Saints hard. The injury news is much brigther for the Falcons. Their star cornerback, Desmond Trufant, has been cleared from his concussion symptoms that caused him to miss last Sunday's 14-9 loss to the Vikings. Nickel back Brian Poole also missed that game due to a back injury. He's expected to play, too. Pick'em type games often are the hardest to get involved in. So while this is far from a max unit recommendation, the Falcons have enough going for them with situation, home field on a short week and favorable injury status to get the nod.
12-03-17	Eagles v. Seahawks +6.5		10-24	Win	100	91 h 49 m	Show
These teams met in the Seahawks' 10th game of the season last year. Seattle was a 6 1/2-point home favorite and won, 26-15. Now, a little more than a year later, the Eagles are favored by nearly that amount. Is a 12-point swing justified? The Eagles are greatly improved. Carson Wentz has become a franchise quarterback. Seattle is missing two defensive back stars, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks have lost their last two home games. But, no, this line is out of whack. I expect the Seahawks to win this game straight-up. Never in Pete Carroll's eight years in Seattle have the Seahawks dropped three home games in a row. Century-Link Field remains the toughest outdoor venue in the league for opposing teams. The Seahawks have a history of stepping up late in the season under Carroll as evidenced by a 19-6-1 ATS mark during their past 26 December games. Seattle's defense still is very good. The Seahawks limit opponents to 98.4 yards rushing. They rank in the top 10 in fewest yards allowed, rushing defense and pass defense. Seattle has held its past two opponents to fewer than 200 yards passing despite not having Sherman and Chancellor. Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Seattle's front seven remains imposing especially at home. Wentz has been tremendous. But Russell Wilson is one of the few quarterbacks who trump him. Wilson is the best quarterback in the NFC, accounting for a higher percentage of his team's yards than any other player in the league. Wilson has good receiving targets and his uncanny mobility offsets Seattle's poor offensive line and lack of a ground attack. The Eagles can afford a loss here. The Seahawks can't. The urgency to win is with Seattle.
12-03-17	Panthers +4.5 v. Saints		21-31	Loss	-110	88 h 21 m	Show
Both teams are 8-3 and first place is at stake in the NFC South Division. The Saints are home and have the more dynamic offense. But the Panthers are a strong road club with the superior defense and in revenge mode. The points are generous. So I'm going with the 'dog. New Orleans is much improved defensively. This improvement just makes the Saints average on defense, though. The Saints also may be missing their starting cornerbacks with Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley hoping to gain clearance after sitting out last week with injuries. Carolina has a very strong defense ranking No. 2 in fewest yards allowed and eighth in scoring defense. The Panthers have the No. 3 run defense and are sixth in pass defense. The Saints will have to earn their points. New Orleans has played three strong teams this season - the Vikings, Patriots and Rams. The Saints lost each of those matchups. Aside from beating Carolina, 34-13 in Week 3, the Saints' only other victory against an above .500 team came against the Lions in a wild matchup. Cam Newton played terrible in the Panthers' loss to the Saints. He had a season-low passer rating and threw three interceptions. I expect him to play much better. Newton is far more effective when he's running and that should be the case against the Saints in this division showdown. Carolina has covered in seven of its last eight road games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 6-0 ATS. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 visits to New Orleans. The Panthers are in a better travel spot, too. They had their bye two weeks ago and then got some rust off playing the Jets this past Sunday. The Saints were fortunate to defeat a beat-up Redskins squad two weeks ago at home and had to return from the West Coast this past Sunday following a loss to the Rams.
12-03-17	Browns v. Chargers OVER 42.5		10-19	Loss	-110	96 h 39 m	Show
The Chargers are averaging 41 points during their last two games. The well-balanced Chargers attack is going to produce a large share of points against an overworked Cleveland defense that no longer has its best defensive back (traded Joe Haden) and linebacker (injured Jamie Collins.) Cleveland ranks 30th in scoring defense giving up 26.3 points a game. The Chargers may even try to pour it on the Browns being in revenge mode. The Browns upset the Chargers for their only victory last season. The key is having the Browns produce points. I believe they will be more offensive-minded this week. DeShone Kizer can move the ball and is a running threat. He finally has two quality wide receiving targets with Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon set to make his season debut. The Browns also have one of the better receiving running backs in the NFL in Duke Johnson.
12-03-17	49ers v. Bears OVER 40.5		15-14	Loss	-110	94 h 41 m	Show
I like each team's chances of putting up at least three touchdowns. The weather is going to cooperate with temperatures in the 40s and little wind. The 49ers should get a spark with Jimmy Garoppolo making his first start for them. Garoppolo is used to Chicago weather being from Arlington Heights, which is about 30 miles away from Solider Field. Garoppolo played at Eastern Illinois. He's an upgrade on C.J. Beathard. The Bears are missing a number of key defenders, including Leonard Floyd, Jerrell Freeman, Willie Young and Quintin Demps. John Fox should take the training wheels off Mitch Trubisky. The 49ers rank among the bottom five teams in points allowed, yards given up and rushing yards. Their secondary is decimated by injuries.
12-03-17	Bucs v. Packers +1.5		20-26	Win	100	86 h 35 m	Show
Jameis Winston's return is the big news for Tampa Bay. But underneath that headline should be that the Buccaneers are going to be without two starting offensive linemen, right tackle Demar Dotson and center Ali Marpet. Both were injured this past Sunday and are out for the season with knee injuries. They were among the Buccaneers' top three offensive linemen. Doug Martin likely is out, too, for Tampa Bay after suffering a concussion. He's by far the Buccaneers' best running back. Winston might be rusty after being out a month. He's a hot and cold quarterback capable of throwing multiple touchdown passes, or multiple interceptions. The Buccaneers are 4-7 and headed nowhere. Their victories have been against foes who have a 13-31 combined record. The Packers' offense finally showed life under Brett Hundley on the road in Pittsburgh against a very strong defense, one much better than Tampa Bay's. The Packers put up 28 points, the second-most points the Steelers have allowed all season. That has to boost Hundley's confidence. Jamaal Williams has been solid at running back and Hundley should have ample time to find Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb since the Buccaneers lack a pass rush ranking last in sacks with 15. The Buccaneers also are at the bottom in total defense.
12-02-17	Georgia +3 v. Auburn		28-7	Win	100	5 h 57 m	Show
Sharp money has come on Georgia and I can understand why. The Bulldogs are in a huge revenge spot and Auburn is coming off a huge home win against Alabama. The Bulldogs have the best running attack in the SEC with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel and a defense that gives up the fourth fewest yards per game in the country. I don't see Auburn stopping the Bulldogs on the ground like it did in the first meeting.
12-01-17	Stanford v. USC UNDER 59	Top	28-31	Push	0	58 h 28 m	Show
USC rushed for 302 yards in beating Stanford, 42-24, back in early September. That's the most yards Stanford has allowed since David Shaw became its coach in 2011. I don't see that happening again in this rematch, which will decide the Pac-12 championship. Stanford hasn't allowed more than 24 points during its last eight games - seven games against Pac-12 opponents in a wide open throwing conference and powerful Notre Dame. During this span, the Cardinal are giving up an average of 15.6 points a game. The Under has won in seven of these last eight Stanford games. Stanford has the pass rushers, particularly senior Harrison Phillips, to bother Sam Darnold and also will be very aware of the run knowing how USC dominated on the ground in the first meeting. Phillips is No. 1 in the country in tackles for losses with 16 1/2. Note, too, that the first meeting was played at USC. This one is at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, which is known for having a very loose and slippery grass field. I see the Trojans doing well on defense also. The Cardinal is now going with redshirt freshman quarterback K.J. Costello. He's averaging 130 yards passing a game. The Cardinal relies heavily on running back Bryce Love, who isn't 100 percent because of an ankle injury. Stanford is very methodical on offense, which runs clock.
11-26-17	Packers v. Steelers -14	Top	28-31	Loss	-104	60 h 44 m	Show
You have to go all the way back to 1976 to find the last time the Packers were two-touchdown underdogs like they are here. I've been closely following the Packers since the early 1960's. It hasn't all been Bart Starr, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. I've seen a lot of bad Green Bay quarterbacks. Brett Hundley can take his place among them. Hundley has played 19 quarters. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is 2-to-10. He's been sacked 17 times and his passer rating is 63.6. The Packers are averaging 13.4 points in the five games Hundley has played since replacing the injured Rodgers. All but one of Hundley's starts have come at home, too. Now the Packers have to play at Heinz Field where they will be lucky to score 10 points against a Pittsburgh defense that is second in sacks with 34. The Steelers defense is solid up front, has linebackers who run and hit and have a strong secondary with physical safeties in the middle. No team has scored more than 17 points on the Steelers during their past five games. Hundley isn't playing with a full deck either. Green Bay is down to third-string running back Jamaal Williams and has a huge hole at offensive right tackle. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have been exposed as mediocre commodities nearly totally dependent on Rodgers setting them up. Davonte Adams has been the Packers' only effective receiving target since Rodgers went down. Unfortunately for the Packers, they also face great obstacles on defense. The Steelers have tremendous weapons and their offense is playing at their highest level coming off a 40-17 victory against Tennessee last Thursday. Ben Roethlisberger has helped Pittsburgh win five in a row by throwing for 1,328 yards, 10 touchdowns and compiling a 102.7 quarterback rating during this span. Antonio Brown is leading the NFL in receptions and yards. Le'Veon Bell is back leading the league in rushing. The Packers have a cluster injury problem in their secondary and may be without linebacker Clay Matthews and underrated nose tackle Kenny Clark. Pittsburgh is on extra rest and sure to be motivated with this being a nationally televised home game. Since Heinz Field opened in 2001, the Steelers are 19-3 in prime time night games when Roethlisberger has been under center. So, yes, this is that time to lay heavy wood in an NFL game.
11-26-17	Titans -3 v. Colts		20-16	Win	100	53 h 2 m	Show
I get that Marcus Mariota has a poor road record. But the difference between these two teams is far more than a field goal. That was proven back in Week 6 when the Titans controlled the ball for nearly 36 minutes in whipping the Colts, 36-22. So what has changed? Nothing. Andrew Luck was last spotted in Europe. The Colts offense is several tiers below the Titans not only at quarterback, but in the offensive line and running back. The Colts have the best wide receiver in T.Y. Hilton, but the Titans have the superior tight end and the second and third-best wideouts. Mariota wasn't even 100 percent when the Titans defeated the Colts by two touchdowns. He is now. The Colts' defense is well below average with few legitimate NFL starters. The Colts are off a bye, but the Titans also are on extra rest having played last Thursday. The Titans have playoff motivation. The Colts have no such incentive and could be flat drawing their bye so late in the season. It could be difficult for them to rejuvenate their juices especially with no playoff hope.
11-26-17	Bucs +10.5 v. Falcons		20-34	Loss	-135	51 h 16 m	Show
Atlanta isn't nearly as good as last season, while the Buccaneers are playing better with the pressure off winning their last two, both with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The Falcons have a below .500 ATS mark. They are 3-4 SU in their last seven games. Only once in their last eight games have they won by more than five points. The Falcons' Big Three of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman are not matching last year's marks. Ryan is averaging 53 fewer yards passing per game. Jones has only one touchdown and just two 100-yard receiving games. Freeman could be out of action for a second straight game due to a concussion. The Buccaneers have gotten healthier on defense. They have playmakers on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay has won and covered in three of its last four meetings against the Falcons. Atlanta is coming off a Monday upset road win against the always physical Seahawks. So the Falcons are on a short week.
11-25-17	Colorado +10.5 v. Utah		13-34	Loss	-110	18 h 45 m	Show
I'm very surprised this line is so high. Both teams will be sky high for this matchup with bowl eligibiity at stake for each squad. Recent history indicates a close gamed as the last six meetings have all been one-score finals with the average victory margin being 5.3 points. I really like Colorado's balanced attack with running back Philip Lindsey, who ranks No. 2 in the Pac-12 in yards from scrimmage, and quarterback Steven Montez, who has come on throwing for more than 300 yards during the past three games. Lindsay has scored 14 touchdowns and three Colorado receivers have more than 500 yards receiving. Utah is coming off a disappointing 33-30 road loss to Washington in which the Utes blew the game by allowing 10 points in the final 58 seconds. That dropped Utah's record to 1-6 in Pac-12 games. The Utes have lost at home to Washington State, Stanford and Arizona State as a 10-point favorite. Colorado, on the other hand, has had two weeks to prepare for this game after a much needed bye last week. Utah last had a bye in September. So I'm expecting the Buffaloes to be the fresher team and certainly well prepared.
11-25-17	Old Dominion v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 48.5		10-41	Win	100	12 h 12 m	Show
Sparked by star running back Ray Lawry, Old Dominion has taken its offense up a notch scoring a combined 61 points during its last two games. Lawry has rushed for 278 yards and scored three touchdowns during this span. Middle Tennessee State can't just key on Lawry either because the Monarchs have a balanced attack. The Blue Raiders are going to get their share of points with Brent Stockstill back at quarterback. He's facing an Old Dominion defense that yields nearly 31 points a game.
11-25-17	Duke +11.5 v. Wake Forest		31-23	Win	100	8 h 48 m	Show
Duke needs to win to keep its bowl hopes alive. Wake Forest already is bowl eligible. The Blue Devils are 5-5 with four of their defeats coming by seven points or less. Duke stopped the bleeding with an impressive 43-20 win against Georgia Tech last week as a 6 1/2-point home 'dog. This is the first time Duke hasn't been favored in this series in five meetings. Only one of the last 10 games in the series has been decided by more than 11 points. That was Duke's 41-21 victory against the Demon Deacons in 2014. Wake Forest has a strong offense. But Duke's defense should keep them in this game. The Blue Devils are 25th in scoring defense surrendering more than 24 points just twice.
11-24-17	Western Kentucky -135 v. Florida International	Top	17-41	Loss	-135	52 h 10 m	Show
Not only is Western Kentucky the superior team and playing better than Florida International, but the Hilltoppers have tremendous motivation. Western Kentucky is trying hard to gain a foothold in recruiting Florida players. So they really want to look good here. A possible bowl bid is at stake, too, for Western Kentucky. Quarterback Mike White came up huge for Western Kentucky last week throwing for 485 yards and five touchdowns in a 41-38 triple overtime victory against Middle Tennessee State. White is a native of Pembroke Pines, Fla., which is only about 25 minutes from where this game is being played. White is one of 11 Florida players on Western Kentucky. Florida International lost to Middle Tennessee State, 37-17. The Golden Panthers also lost 37-30 at home to Old Dominion, a team Western Kentucky defeated 35-31 on the road earlier this season. The Golden Panthers are not playing well. In the last two weeks, they've not only lost to Old Dominion, which averages a meager 21 points a game, but also to Florida Atlantic, 52-24. Florida International yielded 333 yards rushing in that loss. The Hilltoppers have covered four of the last five against the Golden Panthers, including wining 49-21 last year.
11-23-17	Vikings -135 v. Lions	Top	30-23	Win	100	72 h 46 m	Show
Matthew Stafford is a good quarterback. He's not elite, though, and he has no ground game and just an average at best offensive line. The Vikings have a vastly superior defense and more playmakers on offense than the Lions do. So I don't see this game being close at all. The Vikings have held seven of their last eight opponents to 17 points or fewer. This past Sunday they held the Rams, the No. 1 scoring team in the NFL entering the week, to just seven points. Minnesota doesn't have a defensive weakness. Under defensive guru Mike Zimmer, the Vikings have played the Lions seven times. Detroit is averaging 16.1 points in those matchups. Zimmer knows how to defend Stafford. The Lions were lucky to beat the Browns and Bears during the past two weeks. Case Keenum doesn't have Stafford's talent. But he's been doing a good job and has better receiving weapons with Adam Thielen, who leads the NFL in receiving yardage, Stefon Diggs and tight end Kyle Rudolph. The Vikings' offensive line has been playing much better, too, yielding only one sack in the last five games.
11-21-17	Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan -13		31-34	Loss	-108	7 h 3 m	Show
I'm expecting very little from Bowling Green, which is 2-9 SU and ATS. Mike Jinks hasn't done a good coaching the Falcons. It wouldn't shock me if he was out after this season. Eastern Michigan is far better than its deceiving 4-7 mark. The Eagles have lost six games by a total of 23 points. Three of their losses occurred in overtime. They are 18-6 ATS during their past 24 games, a solid money-maker. The Eagles have superior coaching with Chris Creighton their defense is much better than Bowling Green's. The key comes down to motivation. I see the Eagles, with many seniors, wanting this game more than Bowling Green.The Falcons gave a strong effort for a half against rival Toledo last week before giving up in the second half and getting buried.
11-19-17	Patriots v. Raiders OVER 52		33-8	Loss	-109	135 h 46 m	Show
The Raiders are giving up an average of 29.3 points in their last three games. They were torched by Jay Cutler in their last game. Tom Brady should have a field day versus a banged-up Raiders secondary that still does not have an interception. The Patriots' offense is healthy and back on track with the offensive line playing better and Bill Belichick's many role players fitting in. The Patriots have four good running backs to attack the Raiders, who have to be concerned about how they're going to match up against Rob Gronkowski and dangerous speedster Brandin Cooks. I'm expecting New England to put up a long of points here. Note that this game is being played in Mexico City, which has a very high elevation. That could mean defenses, especially Oakland's, will be tired and worn out earlier than usual.
11-19-17	Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders	Top	33-8	Win	100	143 h 46 m	Show
The Patriots are coming together both offensively and defensively. New England hasn't allowed more than 17 points to any of its past five opponents holding those foes to an average of 13.4 points during this span. Tom Brady is having another masterful season. He should pick apart a soft Raiders secondary that still does not have an interception yet. Dion Lewis is coming on, Rob Gronkowski is healthy and speedster Brandin Cooks has to be taken into account, too. The Raiders were torched by Jay Cutler in their last game. So they're very vulnerable to the much superior Brady. Derek Carr still might not be 100 percent. He's not going to be able to keep up with Brady. This game is being played in high altitude in Mexico City. The Patriots just played the Broncos in Denver and are staying in Colorado this week to get fully acclimitated to the higher elevation.
11-19-17	Chiefs v. Giants OVER 43.5		9-12	Loss	-120	99 h 46 m	Show
The Chiefs should rack up a lot of points going against a Giants defense that has shown signs of quitting. Morale is low on New York to say the least. New York has given up a combined 106 points in its last three games. The names are there on the Giants defense. But the production isn't. Jason Pierre-Paul and Landon Collins are having terrible seasons. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Janoris Jenkins have taken turns getting suspended by the team. Olivier Vernon isn't 100 percent. Eli Apple has gotten worse. The Giants have surrendered four touchdown passes of 47 or more yards during their last two games. They were torched by C.J. Beathard and the toothless 49ers this past Sunday giving up 31 points and more than eight yards per play. The Chiefs rank fifth in points per game and yards. They've had two weeks to prepare and game plan. Alex Smith is having a career season. Travis Kelce is a top-five tight end and should have a monster game as the Giants have given up a touchdown to every tight end they've faced this season. Rookie Kareem Hunt should be rejuvenated. While the Giants defense is off the rails, Eli Manning keeps fighting. The prideful Manning has gotten more in sync with his new receivers. The Giants' ground game has improved, too. The Chiefs are no prize on defense especially on the road where they've allowed 27 or more points in seven of their past eight away matchups, including the last six.
11-19-17	Jaguars v. Browns +8.5		19-7	Loss	-115	28 h 28 m	Show
I understand the Browns are snake bit and find ways to not only lose games, but fail to cover spreads. But I have to take more than a touchdown here with Cleveland. The oddsmaker is projecting a low score and I concur. That means points should be at a premium. The Browns rank 11th in total defense and fourth in run defense. They have talent on defense. The Jaguars are run-oriented. They could be missing their best runner, rookie Leonard Fournette. He's dealing with an ankle injury. This is Jacksonville's first cold weather game of the season and first away matchup in four weeks. The Jaguars are in a flat spot, winners of three in a row and now playing the worst team in the NFL. Cleveland is hungry for a victory especially at home. Rookie DeShone Kizer is coming off his best game. Kizer has derailed the Browns offense with his turnovers. However, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles has been a turnover machine, too, during his NFL career. Improvement should continue to come for Kizer as we're into Week 11. The Jaguars would prefer to grind out a victory without having to trust Bortles especially with a banged-up wide receiving corps. That should ensure a close game. If Bortles throws more than warranted than the Jaguars are going to be in trouble.
11-19-17	Bucs v. Dolphins OVER 41.5		30-20	Win	100	28 h 36 m	Show
The Dolphins have opened up their offense more since they've moved on from Jay Ajayi and a power ground game to set up the pass. Jay Cutler has been playing better and Kenyan Drake, Ajayi's replacement, has more speed and is a more dangerous pass-catcher out of the backfield. Tampa Bay's defense has been terrible on the road surrendering at least 30 points in each of their four away matchups. So I'm expecting the Dolphins to put up a fair share of points. I equally expect the Buccaneers to put up a lot of points, too. Miami's defense is at low ebb allowing an average of 37.3 points in its past three games. The Dolphins are particularly vulnerable on pass defense starting a rookie and second-year player at the cornerback spots. Mike Evans is back from suspension joining DeSean Jackson in giving Ryan Fitzpatrick two big play weapons. Fitzpatrick is turnover-prone, but he knows the Dolphins having played against them three times in the last two seasons enjoying good success against them. The Dolphins have the second-worst quarterback rating in the NFL at 104.8. They have only three interceptions while allowing 16 touchdown throws. Fitzpatrick, given his receiving weapons and running back Doug Martin, should produce good numbers.
11-18-17	New Mexico State v. UL-Lafayette +4.5	Top	34-47	Win	100	25 h 47 m	Show
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog getting the money in seven of the past eight meetings. That should be the case again this year as I see no justification for making New Mexico State a road favorite against Louisiana Lafayette. The Aggies were road favorites against Georgia Southern and Texas State. Those two teams are a combined 2-17. The Ragin' Cajuns are a clear cut above those bottom feeders. Each team is 4-5 trying hard to get two more victories to become bowl eligible. Lafayette still has a chance to claim a share of the Sun Belt Conference title and has a much better pedigree than New Mexico State having gone to a bowl game in five of the last six seasons. This also is Lafayette's homecoming game. The Aggies have a poor November history, too, failing to cover 17 of the past 25 times during November. The Ragin' Cajuns are off a bad road loss to Mississippi, but had four players suspended for that game, including their starting running back and leading rusher Trey Ragas. They will have them all back for this matchup. Ragas will be fresh, too. New Mexico State has the better passer in Tyler Rogers. But he's thrown 15 interceptions. That's more than twice as many interceptions as the Ragin' Cajuns quarterbacks have thrown.
11-18-17	Syracuse v. Louisville UNDER 73		10-56	Win	100	40 h 12 m	Show
Syracuse has a good offense - and its high totals like this reflect that. The Orange, though, have gone Under in 11 of their last 13 ACC games. Syracuse QB Eric Dungey missed the last game with a leg injury. So his status and condition could be a factor that favor the Under. Louisville is playing better defense. The Cardinals held Virginia to 21 points, 277 yards and had four sacks last week. Another key factor here is weather. Heavy winds are forecast along with around a 70 percent chance of rain. That could mean more running plays. Syracuse isn't a great running team and Louisville's defense is better versus the run.
11-18-17	South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 47		0-52	Loss	-110	119 h 47 m	Show
South Alabama has gone Under in eight of its last nine games. It's not a shock. The Jaguars have one of the top defenses in the Sun Belt Conference, but only average 22.1 points a game, which ranks 107th in the nation. Georgia Southern is ground-oriented. South Alabama has a top-50 rush defense. Both teams are slow-paced. There were just a combined 33 points scored in last year's game.
11-18-17	Arizona State v. Oregon State OVER 59		40-24	Win	100	35 h 43 m	Show
Arizona State is peaking offensively averaing 40.5 points and rushing for 675 yards during its last two games. Oregon State ranks among the bottom four in the country defensively allowing more than 40 points per game. Arizona State has the second-best red zone scoring percentage in the country. The Sun Devils can almost cover this total alone. But the Beavers should be able to pitch in with some points. They've scored 28 and 23 points during their past two games and have improved their ground attack. Arizona State is weak versus the run.
11-18-17	Virginia +18.5 v. Miami-FL		28-44	Win	100	21 h 25 m	Show
Miami is in letdown mode after consecutive huge home victories against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. Virginia has the passing game to put up enough points to cover this spread. Cavaliers QB Kurt Benkert has thrown 21 TD passes and throws for 249.2 yards per game. The Hurricanes are 0-2 ATS as double-digit ACC favorites. Neither time did they come close to covering beating Syracuse by eight points and North Carolina by five.
11-18-17	Minnesota +7.5 v. Northwestern		0-39	Loss	-115	115 h 12 m	Show
Minnesota beat Northwestern, 29-12, last season and the Gophers are better this season under P.J. Fleck. The Gophers have bowl incentive needing another victory to reach six wins. Northwestern has won five in a row, but three have come in overtime. The Wildcats don't have better athletes than the Gophers. I see these teams being close to even in terms of talent so this is a generous spread. Minnesota historically does well on the road against the Wildcats covering in eight of their last nine trips to Evanston.
11-18-17	Minnesota v. Northwestern UNDER 46		0-39	Win	100	102 h 2 m	Show
Both of these teams are in the bottom 50th in scoring. Minnesota ranks 111th in total yards. So a low scoring game is expected with the defenses dominating. But making it even more of a defensive battle are the expected weather conditions. It's going to be cold and the forecast is calling for winds gusting from 22-to-30.
11-17-17	Middle Tennessee State v. Western Kentucky UNDER 59	Top	38-41	Loss	-115	18 h 26 m	Show
The total has been steamed up. I can understand why because both teams have good quarterbacks and a reputation for high scoring games. But I believe the market isn't paying enough attention to each team's defense. Brent Stockstill is the leading passer in Middle Tennessee State history. He recently returned from a collarbone injury and is not having a big season completing barely 55 percent of his passes. His top wide receiver, Richie James, remains out. Western Kentucky ranks No. 22 in pass defense. Only three teams in the nation have surrendered fewer 20-yard plus passes than the Hilltoppers. DeAndre Farris is one of the top cornerbacks in Conference USA. Mike White is a very good quarterback for Western Kentucky. But the Hilltoppers are one-dimensional averaging just 69.4 yards rushing per game, last in the country. Not once has a Hilltopper runner gained at least 20 yards on a run. Middle Tennessee State ranks 19th in holding opponents to 3.5 yards per rush. A key for Western Kentucky is protecting White. The Hilltoppers rank ninth-worst in the nation in sacks giving up 3.2 per game. They've permitted nine sacks during their last two games. Middle Tennessee State is a blitzing team with a sharp defensive coordinator in Scott Shafer, former head coach at Syracuse. The Blue Raiders have held foes to only 194 yards passing per game.
11-12-17	Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 46.5		41-16	Loss	-110	103 h 9 m	Show
The Patriots have more trouble against the Broncos, especially playing in Denver, than they do against any other defense. The Patriots have played three times in Denver during the past two seasons and been held to an average of 19.3 points. The Broncos rank in the top-five defensively in fewest yards per game, run defense and pass defense. The prideful Broncos were embarrassed, 51-23, by the Eagles in Philadelphia this past Sunday. That was their third straight road game. Despite that lopsided loss, the Broncos defense still may have the most talent and savvy of any defense in the league. They'll be out to redeem themselves against this hated conference rival. The Patriots are likely to be down one of their better wide receivers with Chris Hogan nursing a shoulder injury. Remember the Patriots are missing Julian Edelman, too. The Patriots' offense has been going downhill averaging 21.8 points a game during their last four games after averaging 32.5 points in their first four games. The flip side is the Patriots' defense is much improved. Since Bill Belichick simplified defensive roles, the Patriots have given up just 12.7 points per game during their last four games. Belichick shouldn't have to game plan too hard facing Brock Osweiler, who has 22 turnovers in 17 starts, but he's had extra prep time anyways with the Patriots being idle last week. Poor quarterbacking is killing the Broncos. If not for two touchdowns in garbage time against the Eagles, one of which was scored by the defense, the Broncos would have scored fewer than 20 points for the sixth consecutive time.
11-12-17	Chargers +4 v. Jaguars		17-20	Win	100	93 h 10 m	Show
Jacksonville is improved, but not enough to be laying more than a field goal to a decent Chargers squad that has won three of their last four with the lone defeat during this span coming to the Patriots. The Jaguars have a minimal home field edge. This is an early start and a long road trip for LA. But the Chargers had a bye last week so there should not be a fatigue factor. Philip Rivers not only gives LA a huge QB edge, but he has the savvy to know how to attack a talented Jacksonville defense. Rivers can move the ball with throws to Keenan Allen in the slot and Melvin Gordon out of the backfield. The Chargers finally have their No. 1 draft pick, wide receiver Mike Williams, ready to contribute. The Chargers defense has been playing well giving up just 37 points during their last three games and gets back linebacker Denzel Perryman from injured reserve. The Jaguars have a limited offense and Blake Bortles is turnover-prone.
11-12-17	Jets v. Bucs +2.5		10-15	Win	100	27 h 16 m	Show
The Jets have no business laying points on the road where they are 1-3 SU and ATS. New York's lone road win was a fluke against the Browns. The Jets were totally outplayed and outgained by 207 yards. They won because of rookie QB DeShone Kizer's turnovers. Ryan Fitzpatrick certainly is no rookie. He's played well when he's replaced Jameis Winston this season and will be highly motivated going against the last team he played for before coming to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers won't have suspended Mike Evans, but Fitzpatrick still has other weapons, including underrated tight end Cameron Brate. Fitzpatrick plays best against man coverage, which is the Jets' preferred style. There's a chance, too, the Jets could be missing their top cornerback, Morris Claiborne. The Jets won't have their second-best wideout, suspended Jeremy Kerley, and might also be without defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson. The Buccaneers have received good news on the injury front. They get back their best cornerback, Brent Grimes, and could have a healthy offensive line. The Jets are one of the few teams who haven't had their bye yet. That comes next week. So their focus may be off.
11-12-17	Vikings v. Redskins OVER 40.5		38-30	Win	100	27 h 13 m	Show
The combination of Kirk Cousins and a mediocre Washington defense makes the Redskins a very good Over team. The proof is in the record: 22 Overs in Washington's past 29 games. I see that trend continuing here. The Redskins are expected to get back some of their injured offense linemen along with wide receiver Jamison Crowder and possibly star tight end Jordan Reed. Minnesota has a very good defense - hence the low total. But Cousins can attack the Vikings with quick, short passes. He has the personnel and astute coaching from Jay Gruden to accomplish this. There may not be a more dangerous pass-catching running back than Chris Thompson. I expect the Vikings to put up their share of points, too. Case Keenum is playing to keep his starting position with Teddy Bridgewater back from injury. The Redskins are vulnerable to the Vikings' ground attack and tight end Kyle Rudolph. Already down two key run-stuffers with lineman Jonathan Allen and inside linebacker Mason Foster out, the Redskins may be msising their best linebacker, Zach Brown. He missed practice because of an ankle injury. The Vikings rank in the top 10 in rushing. The Redskins have been gashed on the ground the past two weeks by the Seahawks - who are not a good running team - and the Cowboys surrendering an average of 158.5 yards rushing to those two teams.
11-12-17	Packers +6 v. Bears	Top	23-16	Win	100	27 h 19 m	Show
Green Bay has beaten Chicago in 13 of the last 15 meetings. The Packers were 7 1/2-point favorites in Week 4 when they rolled past the Bears, 35-14. But now the spread has swung two touchdowns the other way with Aaron Rodgers out. It's too much of an ajustment. The Packers are better than they showed this past Monday night and the Bears aren't good enough to lay this many points. Sure Brent Hundley is going through growing pains filling in for Rodgers. But so is Bears rookie quarterback Mich Trubisky, who will be making only his fifth start. The Packers have far better receiving weapons than the Bears. Trubisky just lost his security blankett, too, with tight end Zach Miller suffering a serious leg injury. Trubisky is a game manager and game managers operating an ultra-conservative offense behind a defensive-minded coach, John Fox, aren't a team to back at this price. The Packers pulled in ranks after releasing distractful Martellus Bennett. Look for the unified, prideful Packers to beat the Bears here.
11-11-17	Notre Dame v. Miami-FL UNDER 59.5		8-41	Win	100	28 h 20 m	Show
It's easy to focus on these team's skill position stars. I choose, though, to put more credence on the defenses. They are both outstanding. Notre Dame ranks 17th in scoring defense giving up 18.4 points a game. They've held all but one of their nine opponents to 20 points or less. The Irish have a very strong run defense. Notre Dame, however, ranks 90th in pass defense. I'm not a fan of Miami QB Malik Rosier, though. He's completed less than 50 percent of his throws in his past two games and been picked off four times. Notre Dame has forced at least one turnover in each of its games. The Hurricanes are holding opponents to only 17.6 points a game, which is 12th-best in the nation. Only one of their last six foes have scored more than 20 points. The Hurricanes held Virgina Tech to 10 points last week. The opportunistic Hurricanes defense has the speed and muscle to slow down Notre Dame's ground attack. Miami has forced 20 turnovers and ranks fourth in the country in takeaways/giveaways.
11-11-17	Alabama v. Mississippi State UNDER 51	Top	31-24	Loss	-110	32 h 35 m	Show
Alabama gives up 9.8 points per game and 243.8 yards a game. That ranks first and second, respectively, in the nation. Those are strong indicators that the Crimson Tide has the best defense in the country. Mississippi State ranks seventh in the nation in total defense giving up just 259.3 yards a game. Both teams stay on the ground a lot - above 62 percent - and play at a slow tempo. These are big pluses for the Under. The Under has cashed the past eight times the teams have played in Mississippi.
11-11-17	Kansas v. Texas UNDER 56		27-42	Loss	-110	26 h 8 m	Show
Rather than trying to make Kansas work on the road, or lay a monster number with offensive-challenged Texas, the way to go in this matchup is Under the total. Neither first-string quarterback may start due to injuries. I've really liked Texas' defense ever since Week 2. Since that time, the Longhorns have yielded an average of only 17.6 points a game. They have the sixth-best third-down defense in the nation. Kansas has managed only two touchdowns in its last four games. Texas, though, isn't exactly a powerhouse on offense. If you discount the 38 points the Longhorns scored against Baylor, they would be averaging 13.6 points in their last three games.
11-11-17	Georgia State v. Texas State UNDER 47		33-30	Loss	-110	116 h 16 m	Show
Usually you think offense when it comes to the Sun Belt Conference. Not with these two teams, though. Georgia State ranks 116th in scoring at 20.5 points a game. Texas State is even worse at 17.3 points per game. Expect defense to rule here as it's not a fluke the Under has cashed 20 of the last 26 times Georgia State has played, including eight of the past 10 road games. The Panthers have a top-50 defense. They rank in the top three in the conference in scoring defense, total defense and rush defense. Texas State also has a very strong run defense. The under has cashed in 11 of the Bobcats' last 15 games.
11-11-17	UL-Lafayette +20 v. Ole Miss		22-50	Loss	-110	20 h 6 m	Show
UL-Lafayette has been a quality Sun Belt Conference team under Mark Hudspeth going to a bowl game during five of his six seasons, including last season. The Ragin' Cajuns are in the bowl hunt again this season and should be the more motivated and fresher team. Lafayette averages nearly 30 points a game. The Ragin' Cajuns can take advantage of a Mississippi defense surrendering an average of nearly 42 points during their last six games. The Ragin' Cajuns should have a freshness, too, since they just had a bye two weeks ago. That was already their second bye of the season. Mississippi, on the other hand, will be playing for the seventh straight week. The Rebels are worn down and won't be taking this non-conference foe that serious with bigger games on deck - hosting Texas A&M next week and then concluding the regular season with their annual in-state rival Mississippi State on Thanksgiving.
11-09-17	Seahawks -5.5 v. Cardinals	Top	22-16	Win	100	36 h 39 m	Show
Seattle isn't as good as it has been the past few years. Attrition has taken a toll on the Seahawks' defense. But the Seahawks are still a well above team. Arizona is a bottom feeder with Drew Stanton behind center. If the Seahawks didn't blow Sunday's game to the Redskins, this line would look much higher. Seattle was better than Washington, though, outgaining the Redskins by nearly 200 yards. The Seahawks couldn't overcome a franchise-record 16 penalties and Blair Walsh missing three field goals. Walsh was 12 of 13 in field goals prior to that game. The Seahawks are taking heavy criticism for that bad disappointing performance. They are in bounce back mold and I fully expect that to happen. Russell Wilson is having a huge season. Paul Richardson is having a breakout season joining Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett and Jimmy Graham to provide strong receivers for Wilson. Seattle's offensive line is upgrade with the addition of Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown. Thomas Rawls is healthy giving Seattle its best running back option. Arizona's defense is merely average. During their past four games, the Cardinals have gone against three good passing teams - the Eagles, Rams and Buccaneers. The Cardinals allowed an average of 419 yards through the air against those foes. Arizona has recovered only one fumble on the season and is tied for 25th in takeaways/giveaways at minus 4. The Cardinals' offensive line has started to play better. However, the Cardinals' attack now consists of just ancient Adrian Peterson running and Larry Fitzgerald catching short passes. Stanton is an immobile stiff, who can't hurt a defense with downfield passes. Peterson is 32, a senior citizen by running back age. He just ran a career-high 37 times this past Sunday. Now he's playing on a short week. His legs won't be there. The Seahawks aren't going to have a problem shutting down the Cardinals' scaled-back, limited attack and Arizona's defense isn't strong enough to contain Wilson and his weapons.
11-08-17	Toledo v. Ohio OVER 62.5	Top	10-38	Loss	-102	5 h 58 m	Show
Defense is going to take a backseat in this matchup. The Over has cashed in eight of Ohio's last 10 games. It's no surprise considering the Bobcats average 41.2 points a game. They've scored 45 or more points in their last three games. Toledo featurs Logan Woodside, probably the best quarterback in the MAC. The Rockets average 39 points a game and are sixth in the nation in yards per game at 519.7. This is going to be a back-and-forth scoring game with plenty of fireworks.
11-07-17	Bowling Green v. Buffalo OVER 55	Top	28-38	Win	100	29 h 52 m	Show
Bowling Green is giving up 35.4 points a game. Buffalo can take advantage with Tyree Jackson throwing to Anthony Johnson, who leads the MAC with 888 receiving yards. Jackson is coming off an impressive game where he had 34 completions for 313 yards. The Falcons should contribute their share of points against a Buffalo defense that ranks 115th in run defense and has several injuries. Both teams play at a fast pace, too, which is important when going Over. Update: The total took off shortly after this play was released. I still like it to go Over, but much of the value is gone making it a smaller unit play.
11-06-17	Lions v. Packers +3	Top	30-17	Loss	-120	15 h 28 m	Show
Detroit a road favorite against the Packers at Lambeau Field where the Lions have lost nine of the past 10 times? It's true. That's what happens when Aaron Rodgers is out. Is this justified? The answer is no on many counts. Let's begin with the fact that Detroit is just a mediocre team. Much is being made of Green Bay having lost two in a row. Well the Lions have dropped three straight - home to the Panthers, at the Saints and home to the Steelers. The Lions are 3-4 with two of those victories coming against the Cardinals and Giants during the first two weeks of the season. The Lions can't run the ball - rushing for more than 96 yards just once - and have a below average defense ranking 23rd in points allowed and 22nd in yards given up. The Lions are without their best pass rusher, Kerry Hyder, and top run-defender, Haloti Ngata. Winning a division road game without a good running attack and defense is extremely difficult unless you have a superstar quarterback. Matthew Stafford is above average. He's not elite, though. The situation is against the Lions. The Packers desperately needed a bye to regroup. They've had two weeks to game plan and get healthy. Green Bay's offensive line is expected to be at full strength. Green Bay is 9-2 following a bye under Mike McCarthy. None of those losses came at home. The Packers have owned the Lions through the years winning 16 of the past 20 meetings. It's going to be cold. The Lions have become a warm weather team playing in a dome. All of this, though, is secondary to how Brett Hundley performs. This is the key. I say Hundley comes through here. Hundley was maybe the best quarterback in the league during preseason. OK, that was preseason facing vanilla defenses and backups. But he did display talent both with his arm and running ability. Now many are down on Hundley because of poor performances against the Vikings - when he suddenly was thrust into the game following Rodgers' broken collarbone - and versus the Saints. Those two teams have a combined record of 12-4 and rank third and 10th, respectively, in fewest points allowed per game. Their defenses are far superior to Detroit's defense. The Saints are giving up an average of 13 points during their last three games. This will be Hundley's second start. McCarthy and his ace offensive staff have had 15 days to work with Hundley and game plan for this matchup. Hundley not only will be fully assimilated into the offense, but adjustments will be made that feed into Hundley's strengths such as read-option plays. As added bonuses, Hundley has a healthy offensive line - something he wasn't close to having before - and the emergence of Aaron Jones has given Green Bay a respectable ground game. The Packers have had two of their three best rushing games during their last three games because of Jones, who has run for 413 yards and three touchdowns during this span. The Lions probably will try to take away Jones by putting an extra defender in the box forcing Hundley to beat them. Hundley can do that with one of the deepest receiving groups in the NFL headed by Jordy Nelson, Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb. No Hundley isn't close to being Rodgers. But he has a balanced attack behind him, should be coached up with ample prep time and with a healthy offensive line that should control the line of scrimmage against a mediocre defense playing on the road.
11-05-17	Raiders v. Dolphins OVER 44		27-24	Win	100	84 h 60 m	Show
The Raiders are going to put up their share of points with Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree working against a vulnerable Miami defensive back seven. I'm not a fan of the Dolphins secondary and their linebackers are more dirty than good. The key question is will the Dolphins come up with their share of points to push this Over? Miami ranks last in the NFL in scoring and yards per game. I believe Miami will. Both Jay Cutler and Davante Parker return to the lineup from injuries. Adam Gase is a sharp offensive coach. The Dolphins dealt Jay Ajayi this week. That changes the dynamics of their offense. I see the Dolphins throwing more than usual against the Raiders, who rank 26th in pass defense and are the only team in the NFL not to have an interception. Ajayi was capable of 200-yard rushing games, but he wasn't consistent. The Dolphins have more spreed in their backfield now and their running backs are better pass catchers than Ajayi.
11-05-17	Redskins v. Seahawks -7	Top	17-14	Loss	-110	145 h 32 m	Show
Seattle's defense is down a notch from its elite status of the past few seasons. The Seahawks can't run the ball either unless it's Russell Wilson taking off on a scramble. But the Seahawks still will beat the Redskins by more than a touchdown being at home and given all of Washington's injuries on both sides of the ball. Seattle's defense still is well above average. The Redskins can't compete against it on the road with a cluster injury problem in their offensive line, a weak ground attack and two of their three tight ends injured, including Jordan Reed. There's a chance Washington could be minus four starting offensive linemen plus their top reserve lineman. Wilson is playing at the highest level. His receivers are stepping up especially Paul Richardson. Jimmy Graham is healthier and becoming a factor. The Redskins have key defensive injuries. They are without their best run stuffer, Jonathan Allen. They also are down linebacker Mason Foster and maybe their second-best cornerback, Bashaud Breeland. Special teams play has become an issue, too, for the Redskins.
11-05-17	Broncos +8 v. Eagles		23-51	Loss	-110	28 h 12 m	Show
This is last stand time for the 3-4 Broncos. They have the right personnel to upset the Eagles, who are flying high at 7-1 and due to crash. Philadelphia may take this one for granted with the Broncos making the decision to start Brock Osweiler. The Eagles also have a much bigger game on deck next Sunday - a division game against the Cowboys. The Broncos rank ninth in rushing. They are fourth in time of possession. They can stay on the ground with a trio of decent running backs in C.J. Anderson, Jamaal Charles and Devontae Booker. This would limit Osweiler's exposure. Osweiler is helped by getting back wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. The Eagles rank 27th in pass defense. Carson Wentz had a monster October throwing a franchise-best 14 TD passes. Wentz, though, is just a second-year QB. He can be loose with the ball and is going against the toughest defense he's faced all season. Denver gives up the fewest yards per game and second-fewest rushing yards per game. The Broncos' cornerbacks are so good they can cover one-on-one and Von Miller is a top edge pass rusher. The Eagles are without their No. 1 offensive lineman, Jason Peters.
11-05-17	Rams v. Giants OVER 42		51-17	Win	100	28 h 10 m	Show
This total is too low for a Rams game. The Rams average 30.3 points a game, second-highest in the league. They draw the Giants without four defensive starters, including star cornerback Janoris Jenkins, pass rusher Olivier Vernon and middle linebacker B.J. Goodson. The Giants have given up 100 yards rushing in six of their last seven games. They are going to have problems controlling Todd Gurley, who ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing. Jared Goff has played better away from home with a road touchdown-to-interception ratio of six-to-zero. New York should contribute its share of points with two weeks to prepare and facing a mediocre Rams defense.
11-04-17	Oregon v. Washington OVER 52.5		3-38	Loss	-120	31 h 37 m	Show
These teams combined for 91 points in last season's game, which Washington won, 70-21. Now I doubt the Huskies put up 70 points again, but I do see these teams going above this total. Washington's defense is tough especially at home. But I like the way Oregon ran the ball last week. The Ducks average 35.6 points per game. The Huskies are a top-20 scoring team, averaging nearly 40 points a game. They have scored at least 37 points in six of their eight games and 30 or more in all but one of their games.
11-04-17	Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL UNDER 50	Top	10-28	Win	100	61 h 3 m	Show
It's simple to understand why Miami has gone under in its last five games and why Virginia Tech has gone under in four of its past five games. Both teams have tremendous defenses. Virginia Tech has held its last three foes - Boston College, North Carolina and Duke - to a combined 20 points The Hokies are the second-stingiest defense in the country holding opponents to 11.5 points a game. The Hokies rate in the top six in in fewest first downs allowed and third-down conversations. Miami is 119th out of 130 schools in third down conversions. The Hurricanes are no slouch defensively either. with a top-notch secondary and ranking 18th in the country in yards per play. I see both offenses struggling. Virginia Tech has a mediocre ground attack. None of the Hokies' running backs has had a 100-yard rushing game this season. Freshman QB Josh Jackson has played well, but this will be the best secondary he's faced all season. Only two teams have held quarterbacks to a lower passer rating than the Hurricanes. Miami is coming off a terrible offensive performance against North Carolina. The Hurricanes were lucky to win, 24-19. Quarterback Malik Rosier injured his shoulder in that game, but is expected to start. Virginia Tech has held opposing quarterbacks to the seventh-lowest passer rating. Miami hasn't scored more than 27 points in any of its last four games.The under has cashed six of the last seven times Miami has hosted Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes rushed for a season-low 59 yards against North Carolina. Virginia Tech has the top run defense in the ACC. The under has been a proven money-maker in Virginia Tech conference and road games. The under has cashed 21 of the last 30 times in Virginia Tech's conference games and is 8-3 in the Hokies' past 11 away contests. There's also a chance of rain for this matchup.
11-04-17	LSU +21 v. Alabama		10-24	Win	100	83 h 49 m	Show
Yes, LSU has hit some serious speed bumps this season. But the Tigers went into their bye last week winning their last three games beating Florida on the road, Auburn and Mississippi on the road. LSU isn't in Alabama's class. That's a given. But three touchdowns in this rivalry series is too much. Alabama hasn't been this big of a favorite against LSU in close to 25 years. The Tigers have a healthy Derrius Guice to run the ball, rarely commit turnovers - just one in their last three games - and have a very strong pass rush. LSU has the athletes and pride to keep this close.
11-04-17	Texas +7 v. TCU		7-24	Loss	-115	28 h 3 m	Show
Tom Herman is a great underdog coach. I see the Longhorns, with their stingy defense, hanging in all the way against the Horned Frogs. Texas has held four of their Big 12 foes - Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor - to its lowest scoring games of the season. The Longhorns handled Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Sam Darnold. They can take care of TCU QB Kenny Hill. TCU has been a big money-burner at home failing to cover 11 of the past 12 times.
11-04-17	UTSA v. Florida International UNDER 49.5		7-14	Win	100	125 h 43 m	Show
Don't be fooled by Florida International putting up 41 points against Marshall last Saturday. The Golden Panthers are not a good offensive team. Even with that showing they still on average 22 points and rank 81st in yards. San Antonio is a defensive minded team and its offense plays at a slow pace. The Roadrunners are giving up just 17.4 points per game. The under has cashed in seven of the Roadrunners last 10 games.
11-02-17	Idaho +18 v. Troy	Top	21-24	Win	100	28 h 57 m	Show
Earlier this season, Troy became the first Sun Belt Conference team in history to crack The Associated Press Top 25. The Trojans acheived this by stunning LSU, 24-21, as a three-touchdown road 'dog on Sept. 30. The Trojans proceeded to lose their next game, 19-8, to South Alabama as 18-point home favorites. South Alabama is the one common foe Idaho and Troy have. The Vandals defeated South Alabama, 29-23, on the road. There are other reasons why I like the Vandals here in such a heavy underdog role. Situation, motivation, matchup analysis and line value all are handicapping factors. This is a dangerous spot for Troy. The Trojans celebrated their homecoming game with a 38-16 home victory against Georgia Southern this past Saturday. The win was significant because it marked the first time the Trojans have beat the Eagles since 1992. More important, it pushed the Trojans' record to 6-2 making them bowl eligible. It's a quick turnabout now for the Trojans playing on Thursday. You have to wonder how motivated they will be following that important victory? Idaho, though, won't have any problem getting up for this game. It's rare national exposure for the Vandals. They need to win three of their last four games to become bowl eligible. It's also the Vandals' last season playing in the FBS. They drop down to FCS next season as part of a cost-cutting decision. Studying the matchup, I find Idaho to be underrated while Troy is perhaps perceived higher than it really should be due to the LSU victory. The Trojans are 6-2, but just 2-6 against the spread (ATS). Troy has a solid defense, but its offense has regressed. The Trojans have been without their best runner, Jordan Chunn, the past two games. Idaho has the quarterback edge with Matt Linehan. He's a pro prospect and on track to become Idaho's all-time leading passer. Linehan has completed nearly 61 percent of his throws with a 14-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's probably the best quarterback Troy has faced all season. Contrast Linehan with Troy quarterback Brandon Silvers, who has just a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and been sacked 11 times. The Trojans average 25 points, which ranks them 89th. Idaho averages 23.6 points while giving up an average of 30.6 points. The Vandals' overall statistics are skewed by two terrible performances versus UNLV and Missouri. If you discount those games and in fairness throw out Idaho's 28-6 opening-week victory against Sacramento State, the Vandals would be surrendering 25.4 points a game. The oddsmaker is asking Troy to give up a lot of points in a game that has a relatively low total. The Trojans have scored more than 27 points three times this season. If they were to score 30 points they still would have a hard time covering this number considering Linehan's talent level that ensures Idaho of getting its share of points. Idaho often is overlooked. The Vandals quietly have covered 80 percent of their last 16 games going 12-3-1 ATS. Troy, on the other hand, has failed to cover during its past six home games.
10-29-17	Steelers -145 v. Lions	Top	20-15	Win	100	102 h 54 m	Show
Put simply there is a class difference here. The Steelers are coming on both offensively and defensively. Ben Roethlisberger has a history of playing much better at home, but the Steelers are winning by riding Le'Veon Bell. He's rushed for 484 yards and three touchdowns during the last four games carrying the ball 117 times during this span. Bell's matchup is helped by the Lions not having injured run stuff Haloti Ngata. Because of Roethlisberger, the Steelers are perceived as being bad on the road. Yet they've won seven of their last 10 away games. They also are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games played in October. The Lions can't just key on Bell because once again Antonio Brown is the best wide receiver in football. The Lions limped into their bye having surrendered a combined 79 points to the Panthers - who just were held to three points by the Bears this past Sunday - and Saints during their past two games. The Steelers are tied for second with 24 sacks and give up a league-low 4.4 yards per play. Matthew Stafford does not have a good track record against foes with a winning record. Stafford entered his bye thoroughly beat-up playing behind a porous offensive line. The Lions rank 28th in rushing and they won't have their best receiver, Golden Tate, who is out with a shoulder injury.
10-29-17	Texans v. Seahawks -6		38-41	Loss	-108	10 h 19 m	Show
Going into Seattle is always rough. It's made rougher for the Texans because the Seahawks are playing well - three straight victories - and Houston's focus could be off due to comments made by team owner Bob McNair. McNair's "inmates running the prison" comment has caused a huge distraction among the Texans. Many plan to protest before the game. The Seahawks still have an elite veteran defense. Deshaun Watson is having a monster season, but he's a rookie going into the lion's den here. Houston is 1-6 ATS following a victory.
10-29-17	Falcons -4 v. Jets		25-20	Win	100	95 h 9 m	Show
OK, I get that Atlanta is having a painful Super Bowl hangover. The Falcons have lost three in a row - all to AFC East opponents. Now the Falcons draw the weakest AFC East foe, the Jets. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Falcons. And the Jets are a good foe for them to get well against. I don't see any advantage the Jets have in this matchup with the Falcons holding major edges at the skill position spots. I also like the Falcons' defense better than the Jets particularly with Vic Beasley back in the lineup from injury. Matt Ryan isn't having a magical year like last season. But he's still Matt Ryan, which rates far above Josh McCown and his motley crew of below average wide receivers. The Falcons should dominate with Ryan, Julio Jones and Devontae Freeman. The line is fairly priced, too, because of the Falcons' losing streak.
10-29-17	Chargers v. Patriots UNDER 48.5		13-21	Win	100	95 h 39 m	Show
Normally you wouldn't think of these two teams as having defenses you can trust to play Under. But the Chargers are coming off a shutout of Denver. They've given up an average of 12.6 points in their last three games. No team has scored more than 26 points on the Chargers all season. Tom Brady has been sacked 18 times. He only was sacked 15 times in 12 games last season. The Chargers are tied for the fourth-most sacks in the NFL. Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa have combined for 16 sacks, which is the most in the league by two teammates. The Patriots have yet to fully replace Julian Edelman in the slot and their red zone touchdown percentage isn't what it has been because of it. New England's defense was record bad during its first four games allowing an average of 32 points. But Bill Belichick has made the proper adjustments simplifying things for his secondary particularly Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon. The Patriots have held their last three opponents to 12.7 points per game. Two of those foes, the Buccaneers and Falcons, have strong offenses. Philip Rivers has played better on the road than at home, but his performance has been down the past couple of seasons. He's still an above average quarterback, but not the elite gunslinger of previous years.
10-29-17	Colts v. Bengals OVER 42		23-24	Win	100	7 h 42 m	Show
The Colts are giving up an average of 42.7 points in three games on the road this season. Indy is going to be missing perhaps its three best defensive players here. Linebacker John Simon is out. So are defensive backs Rashaan Melvin and Malik Hooker. Melvin, not Vontae Davis, had emerged as the Colts' top cornerback. Hooker leads the Colts in interceptions. The Colts do not have good depth in the secondary. The Bengals are due to breakout offensively given their skill position talent, which is made better with rookie speedster wide receiver John Ross healthy at last. The Colts have some talented skill position players, too. T.Y. Hilton is a top-15 wide receiver and Marlon Mack an exciting runner, who is starting to get more playing time. Look for him to be effective on screen passes. There is bad weather across the NFL landscape today - but not in Cincinnati. No rain is in the forecast. Temperatures are in the middle 40's with little wind.
10-28-17	UTSA v. UTEP UNDER 48	Top	31-14	Win	100	35 h 20 m	Show
What do you get with three ineffective quarterbacks rotating and no ground game? You get Texas El-Paso's offense, which is the second-worst in the country. The Miners have not broken the 17-point barrier in six of their seven games. The under has cashed 18 of the last 25 times in the Miners' conference games. Don't expect a sudden scoring outburst from UTEP against Texas San Antonio, which ranks 19th in scoring defense giving up 18 points a game. The Roadrunners just held Rice to seven points last Saturday. UTEP has been playing better defense since Mike Price replaced Sean Kugler as coach. The Miners have ranked in the top 50 defensively during their last couple of games and have had an extra week of preparation to work on more defensive schemes having had a bye last week.
10-28-17	Duke v. Virginia Tech UNDER 49		3-24	Win	100	34 h 3 m	Show
Think defense here and not just because the Under has cashed in Duke's last six games. Both teams have excellent defenses and Duke is struggling to score averaging 13.5 points in its last four games. Blue Devils quarterback Daniel Jones ranks 13th among the 14 qualified ACC quarterbacks in passing efficiency. Virginia Tech ranks No. 2 in the nation in third-down defense and gives up only 12.7 points per game, which ranks fifth in the nation. Duke, though, is strong on defense. The Blue Devils are No. 1 in the ACC in interceptions and second in sacks. Weather could impact scoring, too, with rain expected.
10-28-17	NC State +7.5 v. Notre Dame		14-35	Loss	-130	13 h 31 m	Show
I'm not a big fan of Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush especially when the Irish are going to have problems running the ball against North Carolina State's stout defense. The Wolfpack haven't allowed more than 116 yards rushing in any game. They rank sixth in the nation in run defense. No foe has scored more than 25 points on the Wolfpack either. That sets up well when taking a touchdown. Senior North Carolina State quarterback Ryan Finley isn't flashy. But he is efficient and can be trusted not to turn the ball over. He has yet to be intercepted in 248 attempts. North Carolina State has covered its past five road games.
10-28-17	NC State v. Notre Dame UNDER 58		14-35	Win	100	11 h 58 m	Show
I see defense not offense ruling the day here in this matchup. Notre Dame is holding foes to 16.4 points a game, which is 12th-best in the country. North Carolina State allows less than 23 points a game. The Wolfpack are tremendous against the run and can control the line of scrimmage against Notre Dame's offensive line, which hasn't gone against this caliber of foe, nor North Carolina State's unusual 4-2-5 defensive alignment. The Irish also have to deal with Bradley Chubb, one of the best defensive players in the nation. Chubb has 14 tackles for losses and 6 1/2 sacks. He's a highly disruptive force.
10-28-17	Appalachian State v. UMass OVER 55		27-30	Win	100	30 h 21 m	Show
Both offenses have been looking good. Appalachian State has a balanced attack with dual threat senior Taylor Lamb at quarterback. The Mountaineers' offensive line is coming off probably their best game of the season. They should dominante the Minutemen in the trenaches. UMass just had to prepare for Georgia Southern's triple option offense last week. Now they have to switch back in their defensive preparation. That can be a problem. Appalachian State has scored 105 points in its last three games. UMass has scored 105 points in its last two games. It's important to note the Minutemen have been playing at a brisk pace, too.
10-26-17	Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -7		27-30	Loss	-105	8 h 50 m	Show
Eastern Michigan has lost five straight close games. That's not only tough on the record but the morale. Just ask the San Francisco 49ers. They also had lost five consecutive close games before getting drilled 40-10 by the Cowboys this past Sunday. I understand this is an apples and oranges comparison. Those teams have nothing to do with each other. But I point it out as an illustration of how tough it is to hang close for a sixth consecutive game after losing the first five times. The Eagles are going to have a tough time denting Northern Illinois' stout defense, the best in the MAC. Northern Illinois has a strong pass rush led by Sutton Smith, who has 8 1/2 sacks. The Eagles have the worst third-down conversion rate in the MAC. Northern Illinois has a balanced attack. Freshman quarterback Marcus Childers has been terrific since becoming the starter three games ago throwing for 594 yards and a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ration in his three starts.
10-23-17	Redskins v. Eagles OVER 48.5	Top	24-34	Win	100	123 h 7 m	Show
Kirk Cousins and Carson Wentz are two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. But they don't get nearly the respect they deserve especially Cousins. Because of Cousins, the Redskins have become a great Over team. They have gone above the total in 20 of their last 26 games and 13 of their past 16 road contests. Cousins has the third-highest quarterback rating in the league. He's averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and has only two interceptions in 158 attempts. He's on pace to throw for more than 4,000 yards for a third consecutive year. Cousins accomplishes this without a star wide receiver or good running back. The Eagles are vulnerable in their secondary because of injuries. Wentz has justified the Eagles' investment in him. He ranks No. 7 in the NFL in passing. He entered this week tied for second with the most touchdown passes with 13. Wentz has been picked off only once in his last 135 attempts. The Redskins will be missing two key defenders, cornerback Josh Norman and lineman Jonathan Allen. Norman is one of the top cornerbacks in the league. Allen was one of the better run defenders. Washington also may be without its No. 2 cornerback, Bashaud Breeland. He suffered a knee injury last week and is questionable.
10-22-17	Broncos +1.5 v. Chargers		0-21	Loss	-110	96 h 2 m	Show
The Chargers have yet to win or cover a game at home this season. It's not a surprise the Chargers are 0-3 at StubHub Center since they have no home field advantage in LA. Playing there is almost like being on the road. Philip Rivers certainly isn't fond of the team's new venue. He has a 3-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home compared to 7-to-2 on the road. Rivers is having a down year for the second straight season. He ranks a below average 18th in passer ratings. The Broncos give up the fewest yards per game in the NFL. Chris Harris and Aqib Talib are one of the best, if nto the best, cornerback tandem in the league. The Broncos have beaten the Chargers 11 of the last 13 times they've met, including a victory opening week. The Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games. Denver is sure to be fired-up, too, after laying an egg on national TV this past Sunday night in a shocking home loss to the Giants.
10-22-17	Saints -5.5 v. Packers		26-17	Win	100	94 h 51 m	Show
No player is more important to his team than Aaron Rodgers is to Green Bay. But the Packers' problems, unfortunately, go beyond Rodgers. Green Bay has cluster injury problems on the offensive line and in the secondary. The Packers are still shell shocked after losing Rodgers for the season with a broken collarbone. They played their worst game in years in losing to the Vikings this past Sunday. The Packers have their bye next week. They'll need it. They aren't ready for this week. The Saints are playing their best ball in years winning three in a row. The Saints have defeated the Panthers, Dolphins and Lions by a combined score of 106-51 during this span. The Saints beat the Panthers and Dolphins on the road. The Saints have only lost the ball three times. So they shouldn't beat themselves here. Drew Brees is as good as ever. His offensive line is improved and he has two good running backs and a deep group of wide receivers, who can take advantage of Green Bay's thin secondary. Green Bay lost six of seven games when it played offenses ranked 15th or better in offensive efficiency last year. And that was with Rodgters. New Orleans has improved its defense, too. It's now to the point where it is respectable. Look for the Saints to do plenty of blitzing against Brett Hundley, set to make his first pro start. Hundley has yet to prove that he has good pocket presence. The Packers had to finish against the Vikings with three third-stringers in their offensive line - left tackle Justin McCray, left guard Lucas Patrick and right tackle Ulrick John. McCray and John were terrible. This isnt' a question of good players having an off-game. These guys are backups who aren't nearly talented enough to be starters.
10-22-17	Panthers v. Bears OVER 40.5		3-17	Loss	-112	93 h 1 m	Show
This is a very low total in today's NFL world where rules now favor offense so much more than defense. Carolina should be able to run at least semi-successfully on the Bears, who rank 15th in rush defense. This would set up Cam Newton. Despite losing star tight end Greg Olsen, Newton has two tall quality wideouts in Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. Rookie speedster Curtis Samuel has returned from injury. He's due to make his presence known. Newton also has a dangerous target out of the backfield in first-round rookie draft choice Christian McCaffrey. So Newton has a lot of weapons. A key to Carolina doing well offensively is the expected return of Ryan Kalil, one of the better centers in the league. He's been out with a neck problem for the past five weeks. The Bears are the third-best rushing team in the NFL. Jordan Howard is one of the best running backs in football. Mitch Trubisky will be making his third start and is at home. So he should show improvement. Trubisky gives the Bears a scrambling component at quarterback, something they lacked when Mike Glennon was behind center. Chicago would catch a nice break if star linebacker Luke Kuechly is ruled out after suffering a concussion last week.
10-22-17	Cardinals v. Rams OVER 47		0-33	Loss	-110	92 h 14 m	Show
The Cardinals found their offense last week against Tampa Bay putting up 38 points and 432 yards. Arizona's much maligned offensive line played better and Adrian Peterson showed he still has something left. The Rams are the most improved offensive team in the NFL. In fact, they're the No. 1 scoring team in the league averaging 29.8 points a game. Jared Goff can take advantage of a Cardinals secondary that has a huge hole at their No. 2 cornerback spot. The Cardinals really are in trouble if No. 1 cornerback Patrick Peterson can't go because of a quad injury suffered last week. Goff's huge improvement has led to a resurgence for Todd Gurley, who is back in the argument for best back in the league. Gurley is the leading rusher in the NFC and tied for first in touchdowns. The Rams have gone Over in five of their six games.
10-22-17	Jets v. Dolphins -3	Top	28-31	Push	0	127 h 49 m	Show
The linesmaker opened this game Miami minus 3 at home. This basically is saying then that these two teams are even if you factor in about a three-point home field edge for the Dolphins. My checkmarks give the Dolphins far more edges than the Jets. The situational element also favors Miami. The Jets are coming off a huge effort and a near-victory against their arch-rival the Patriots. The Dolphins have quick revenge after being embarrassed by the Jets in Week 3. The Jets thoroughly outplayed the Dolphins in their 20-6 win. The Dolphins were lucky they weren't shut out. But there were extenuating circumstances. Hurricane Irma had caused the Dolphins to not play opening week. The Dolphins then went to the West Coast and beat the Chargers in Week 2. Then they had to fly to the East Coast to play the Jets. Miami's offense still was a work in progress so early in the season with Jay Cutler getting in sync with his new team. The Dolphins' offense isn't good by any means. But they have some stability now with all that back-and-forth traveling, including a trip to London in Week 4, finally ending. The Dolphins showed a lot of heart coming back from a 17-0 halftime deficit to upset the Falcons on the road this past Sunday. Cutler did enough for Miami to win that game and Jay Ajayi had his best game of the season with 130 yards rushing. Ajayi will be the best running back on the field. Jarvis Landry is the best wideout of the two teams. DaVante Parker would be the second-best wideout if he's recovered from an ankle injury. Josh McCown is not better than Cutler. The Dolphins definitely have the better defense ranking third in fewest points allowed per game and 11th in fewest yards given up. The Jets were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns two weeks ago. Cleveland outgained New York by 202 yards and had eight more first downs. The Browns were done in by three turnovers and two missed field goals. This is the spot to recognize the Jets for being who we thought they were - a terrible team.
10-21-17	Wyoming v. Boise State -14		14-24	Loss	-110	40 h 5 m	Show
Boise State was sailing along last season unbeaten and ranked 13th in the country. Then the Broncos got upset, 30-28, by Wyoming in Laramie. It was a devastating loss the Broncos haven't forgotten. Wyoming still has Josh Allen, an elite quarterback. But the Cowboys are down weapons. Allen no longer has Brian Hill, Tanner Gentry and Jacob Hollister to help boost his numbers. The Cowboys have played a weak schedule. Their best opponent during their past four games was Oregon and they lost to the Ducks, 49-13, at home. Boise State has momentum and confidence after upsetting San Diego State, 31-14, on the road last week. The Broncos also defeated BYU on the road two weeks ago. Before losing to Wyoming last year, Boise State had beaten the Cowboys 10 consecutive times. The Broncos' last three victories against the Cowboys were by 20, 49 and 41 points.
10-21-17	Arizona -140 v. California		45-44	Win	100	38 h 39 m	Show
I'm going to ride Arizona QB Khalil Tate while fading California in an obvious letdown spot. Tate has put together two of the greatest back-to-back games in college history. He ran for an FBS record 327 yards against Colorado on the road and followed that up with 230 yards rushing and two touchdowns and a passing touchdown against UCLA last week. Arizona ranks fourth in the nation in rushing and seventh in scoring at 42.8 points per game. The Golden Bears are coming off a stunnng 37-3 upset win against Washington State. Was Cal that good, or Washington State that bad? I'd say it was more the Cougars self-destructing with seven turnovers. The Golden Bears haven't faced too many strong rushing teams, are inconsistent and they lost their leading tackler, linebacker Devante Downs, to a season-ending injury against Washington State.
10-21-17	Auburn v. Arkansas OVER 52.5		52-20	Win	100	37 h 41 m	Show
Auburn covered this total by itself last season beating Arkansas, 56-3. The Tigers could do it again this season. The Razorbacks have given up at least 40 points in each of their first three SEC games. Auburn running back Kerryon Johnson is a big-time back with 476 yards rushing and seven TD's during his last three games. Johnson leads the nation in rushing touchdowns with 13.
10-21-17	North Texas v. Florida Atlantic OVER 63.5		31-69	Win	100	117 h 56 m	Show
North Texas is averaging 39.3 points in its last three games. Florida Atlantic is averaging more than 42 points during its last four games. Both teams have their offenses fully in gear and are multi-dimensional. The total opened too low here. The over has cashed in five of Florida Atlantic's last six Conference USA games.
10-21-17	Kentucky v. Mississippi State OVER 54		7-45	Loss	-110	116 h 40 m	Show
We know Mississippi State can run the ball ranking 14th in the country at 261.7 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs were impressive in their last game, a 35-10 win against BYU. The Bulldogs put up 546 yards on the Cougars. Kentucky has been a surprise in the SEC. The Wildcats also are off an impressive offensive display putting up 40 points on Missouri. That was a season-high for the Wildcats. I see both team's offenses staying strong in this matchup.
10-21-17	Buffalo v. Miami-OH UNDER 45	Top	14-24	Win	100	33 h 35 m	Show
I'm expecting a lot of running, conservative coaching and playing for field position in this matchup. Neither team has their starting quarterback. Buffalo is down to its third-string QB. And it's not like these were a couple of powerhouse, explosive offenses anyway. Buffalo ranks 70th in scoring. Miami ranks 100th in scoring. Both defenses rank in the top 60 in fewest points allowed. Buffalo trailed Northern Illinois, 14-13, at halftime last week. Final score: 14-13. There was no scoring during the second half. The Bulls rushed for just 39 yards on 27 carries. Miami of Ohio scored only 14 points against Kent State last week, none during the fourth quarter, in a 17-14 loss. Kent State ranks 92nd in scoring defense even counting that victory.

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