Colorado isn't used to be in this lofty role - and the Buffaloes don't deserve to be nearly two touchdowns favorite here against a Pac-12 foe that isn't any less talented, bigger and faster than they are.  
The Sun Devils have dominated this series winning the past seven times, covering six of the seven. 
Arizona State holds a special teams edge and can stop Colorado's ground attack. The Sun Devils rank fifth nationally in run defense and first in the Pac-12. 
The Sun Devils average 39.7 points and 434.8 yards per game. So they will present a supreme challenge to the Buffaloes especially with starting quarterback Manny Wilkins able to play. 

This has been a high scoring series ever since Bob Davie took over at New Mexico in 2012. The combined score of their matchup during the past three years is 82 points in 2013, 66 in 2014 and 82 last season. Look for that trend to continue in Saturday's game, which is on the fast track of the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. 
Early money has been on the under based on the Lobos being without injured starting quarterback Austin Apodaca and their best running back, Teriyon Gibson, who had missed the last two games with a strained hamstring. Apodaca isn't likely to play, but Gibson is expected to play. He ranked No. 1 in  average yard per carry before falling out of the rankings due to missing the last two games. 
New Mexico leads the nation in rushing. So they aren't so quarterback dependent as other teams. However, the Lobos can't stop anyone giving up 36 points per game, which ranks 107th in the nation. The over has cashed in the Lobos' last seven games.
Air Force is used to seeing option teams. But the Falcons haven't faced a tempo this quick, or a team this speedy. This is what Falcons defensive coordinator Steve Russ was quoted as saying about New Mexico: "They will be, position for position for position, the fastest team we play." 
The Lobos put up 47 points and 512 yards against Air Force in last year's game. Only California with Jared Goff then at quarterback has put up more yards on the Falcons during the past 29 games. 
Air Force, which has gone over the total in eight of its last nine Mountain West Conference games, is going to score its share of points, too. The Falcons rank in the upper half of the country averaging 33.2 points per contest and 445.2 yards. 
New Mexico's defense is horrible? How horrible? The Lobos surrendered 32 points to New Mexico State, 37 to Rutgers 41 to San Jose State and gave up 49 to Boise State midway through the third quarter last week with the Broncos contend then to sit on a blowout lead. 

I love Bill Snyder as a big road 'dog. The Wildcats have covered 17 of their last 22 as a road 'dog. 
Kansas State has beaten Oklahoma during its past two trips to Norman as underdogs. The Sooners buried the Wildcats, 55-0, last season. But the Wildcats were decimated with injuries for that matchup. The key here is that the Wildcats are healthy this time around and Jesse Ertz is making a difference at quarterback. The Wildcats will be extra motivated remembering that beat down from last season.
Ertz can put up points against a very vulnerable Sooners defense that gives up more than 36 points per game and ranks 114th in pass defense. 
The Sooners are a top-20 offensive team, but Kansas State has held all six of its foes under their season low in yards, including holding Texas Tech to 17 points below its scoring average and West Virginia to 12 points below its scoring average during the past two weeks.  

San Diego has lost its last 10 AFC West matchups. I don't see that streak ending with this game. 
The Chargers are banged-up in the secondary - missing two of their three best cornerbacks in Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers - and Philip Rivers doesn't have several of his key offensive weapons, including Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. The Chargers' offensive line is going to have problems handling Von Miller, who already has 6 1/2 sacks, and the rest of the Denver pass rush. 
The Falcons were able to run on the Chargers. I don't see the Chargers doing that. Melvin Gordon has found the end zone this year, but he's far from an elite running back. 
Denver is fuming from losing at home to Atlanta. The Broncos defense did their job even though it permitted more than 20 points for the first time in 10 games. The Broncos were done in by the inexperience of rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch starting his first NFL game. Denver's blocking was below par, too, minus right tackle Donald Stephenson and tight end Virgil Green.
Word is both Stephenson and Green will be ready for Thursday game. Another key is that regular quarterback Trevor Siemian also will be ready. 
Broncos coach Gary Kubiak is expected to miss the game, hospitalized because of complex migraines. I see this as even more incentive for the Broncos to win one for their coach especially coming off a home loss. 
San Diego may have the worst home field advantage of any team in the league. The Chargers find ways to lose nearly every week having blown leads to the Chiefs, Colts and Saints. Now they draw the defending champs, a team that really knows how to win. 

Aaron Rodgers is very good at any venue, but he's an absolute monster at Lambeau Field where since 2014 he has thrown 46 touchdown passes and been picked off just four times. The Giants' defense is improved, but not nearly enough to slow down Green Bay's offense, which showed definite improvement in its last game and is coming off a bye. Jordy Nelson is nearing 100 percent, making a big difference for Green Bay. 
The Giants only have four sacks. They are weak defensively inside with below average linebackers and their secondary is beat-up with slot cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and cornerback Eli Apple looking like they're going to miss a second straight game. Free safety Darian Thompson may not play either due to a foot injury. That would mean New York would be missing three of its top five secondary people.
Kirk Cousins had a 106.4 passer rating against the Giants two weeks ago and Sam Bradford turned in a 101.9 quarterback rating this past Monday against New York. This bodes well for a huge game from Rodgers. 
The Giants are due for a breakout game on offense - and I see that coming here against a 29th-ranked Packers secondary giving up a 66 percent completion rate and 307 yards through the air. The Packers won't have Sam Shields, their best cornerback, and may also be missing their next best cornerback, Demarious Randall. The Giants have a strong passing attack they've just been slowed by turnovers. 
Giants coach Ben McAdoo knows the Packers well having been an offensive assistant in Green Bay from 2006-2013. The Packers haven't faced a wide receiver the caliber of Odell Beckham Jr. yet. Stefon Diggs lit up the Packers secondary for 182 yards on nine receptions three weeks ago. Then in their last game, the Packers surrendered 205 receiving yards and two touchdowns to Marvin Jones. Those were easily career-bests for Diggs and Jones. 
Weather won't be a factor with clear skies, no wind and temperatures in the low 50s. 

The Bengals are at least a whole another tier higher than Dallas. The Cowboys are thrilled when they beat the lowly 49ers. The Bengals - who have made the playoffs five straight years - expect to the beat the 49ers. That's a huge difference between these two. 
The Cowboys lack the experience at the skill position the Bengals have. They also don't have Cincinnati's veteran savvy. 
The Bengals have covered in nine of their last 10 road contests, while Dallas has lost straight-up eight of its last nine home games. 
The Cowboys gave up 300-yard passing games to Brian Hoyer and Kirk Cousins. They allowed Eli Manning to throw for three touchdowns. Dallas doesn't have the pass rush nor the secondary to defend against A.J. Green. The Cowboys aren't going to get passes air-mailed to them like they did this past Sunday with Blaine Gabbert.

The Chargers are 1-3, but have outscored their opponents by 13 points. The Raiders are 3-1 and have outscored their foes by two points.
The Chargers have led by double-digits at halftime in three of their games. They have blown three fourth-quarter leads. They are a frustrated bunch who are averaging more than 30 points a game and have a decent secondary.
Philip Rivers has a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is on pace to throw for 4,440 yards. He's having another splendid season. Melvin Gordon has rushed for six touchdowns. The Chargers will get their points against a Raiders defense that ranks in the bottom-three in total yards, rush yards and pass yards. 
The Raiders are returning from their third long trip in four weeks. They aren't as desperate as the Chargers, who also have double-revenge motivation. 

This is going to be a defensive, grind-it-out type of game as reflected in the total, which is the second-lowest on the Week 5 menu. So taking a lot of points makes sense especially given the matchup and spot. 
The Texans get a big boost to their offense with left tackle Duane Brown slated to make his season debut. I'm not a fan of Brock Osweiler, but steady Lamar Miller and Brown back will take the pressure off the Houston quarterback. Miller is a "B" type running back who forces the Vikings to respect the run.  
Minnesota has an outstanding defense, but so does Houston. The Texans give up the fewest passing yards per game. They've allowed only one touchdown throw all season, none in their past three games. Only four teams yield fewer yards per game than the Texans, who surrender barely 18 points per game.
The Vikings employ backup running backs and aren't likely to have their top wide receiver and spark plug, Stefon Diggs. That leaves Sam Bradford, who is still learning the offense, without a reliable target. 
This spot isn't good either for Minnesota. The Vikings showcased their new stadium three weeks ago against Green Bay on Sunday night, knocked off defending NFC champion Carolina on the road two weeks ago in a prove-it-to-me matchup and defeated the Giants at home this past Monday night. The Vikings have a bye after this game.This matchup for the Vikings is against a non-marquee, non-division opponent, a letdown for them after their previous three challenges and high profile games. 

Before getting upset by South Alabama, San Diego State had scored 45 points on Cal and 42 on Northern Illinois. The Aztecs have proven they can pile up points against suspect defenses. UNLV ranks 84th in scoring defense allowing 30.4 points a game.
The Aztecs have the nation's leading rusher, Donnel Pumphrey, and are in a foul mood after having their 13-game winning streak ended. San Diego State's offensive coordinator is Jeff Horton, who was once UNLV's head coach. Bobby Hauck is San Diego State's special teams coach. He also is a former head man at UNLV. So expect those coaches to come up with effective offensive designs. 
UNLV has a solid ground attack, too. The Rebels have rushed for 364 yards in each of their last two games and found a quarterback last week in Dalton Sneed. Sneed looked like Doug Flutie in his first start leading the Rebels to a 45-20 victory against Fresno State. 

The oddsmaker isn't given these defenses enough respect making the total this high. 
Texas A&M has a decent offense, but the Aggies have a much stronger defense. The Aggies rank No. 1 in tackles for losses and have a pair of tremendous edge pass rushers in Myles Garrett, who is going to play this week after missing last week, and Daeshon Hall. The Aggies also have one of the top safety trio in the country with Donovan Wilson, Justin Evans and Armani Watts. 
Tennessee is a slow-starting team averaging fewer than 11 points during the first half. The Volunteers aren't going to be able to take it up in the second half - not against this caliber of defense and not at this tough Kyle Field venue. The Vols are going to be without their leading rusher, Jalen Hurd. He's out with a lower body injury. Hurd is a pounder and a good pass blocker. So his presence will be missed for the Vols. 
Defensively, though, the Vols can hang in due to their opportunistic nature. They've forced 10 turnovers. The days of Johnny Manziel are long gone. Trevor Knight isn't a big play quarterback but far more of a game manager-type. The Aggies rank 110th in red zone touchdowns. 

I like the spot, matchup and Wyoming's pedigree against Air Force. The Cowboys have covered the past seven times versus Air Force. 
Third-year Wyoming coach Craig Bohl knows how to defend Air Force's option. The Falcons have averaged 22 points during their past two games against Bohl's Cowboys. 
Wyoming has a lot of senior leadership. The Cowboys have 17 starters back from last season. One of those is Brian Hill, who ranks sixth in the nation in rushing. The Cowboys are a power team so they are familiar with Air Force's grind it out style. This is Bohl's best Wyoming team.  
The Cowboys have won their last four home games and draw Air Force in a flat spot. The Falcons just beat Navy at home in a revenge spot and have another revenge spot next week against New Mexico, who they lost to last year as an 11-point favorite. 

Life as an independent isn't easy these days. BYU is experiencing that. The Cougars have played one of the toughest schedules in the country and now play in the Eastern Time Zone for the second time in two weeks. 
The timing and opponent are especially bad for BYU. Michigan State not only is in circle-the-wagons mode - 0-2 in the Big Ten for the first time since 2007 following consecutive losses to Wisconsin and Indiana - but causes a matchup nightmare problem for the Cougars. 
The Spartans always have a strong run defense under Mark Dantonio. That's the case again this season as the Spartans rank 15th versus the run. BYU just surrendered 53 points at home to Toledo of the Mid-American Conference. The Cougars, inconsistent all season, rank 97th in total defense. They rely on their running spearheaded by Jamaal Williams. The Spartans are going to key on him and quarterback Taysom Hill isn't a strong enough passer to carry the Cougars in this extremely tough road setting. Hill needs to be set up by Williams not the only way around. 
Not only have the Cougars been traveling the country, but they've yet to have a bye. They get the chance to host a rare SEC foe next Friday when Mississippi State visits Provo in a game that will be televised by ESPN. That's the game the Cougars will be pointing to. 
It's Michigan State, the defending Big Ten champion, that has the urgency this week. The Spartans have the talent, desire and right scheduling setup to beat the Cougars by double-digits. 

Bowling Green ranks 127th in yards gained. The Falcons are barely averaging 17 points. They aren't going to do much against Ohio, which has one of the better defenses in the MAC. It's been beyond a dismal season for the Falcons, but they should not lack for motivation after falling to Eastern Michigan at home last week. 
The total is high here because Bowling Green not once but TWICE has given up 77 points in a game. That came to Ohio State and Memphis, though, and skewed the Falcons' defensive scoring numbers. Those are a pair of top 15 offenses.
The Falcons have gone under during their last five MAC games. Ohio has gone under in 12 of its last 17 MAC contests. 

I like the Cardinals to win here, but because Drew Stanton is replacing injured Carson Palmer I'm going to play Arizona on the money line rather than lay more than a field goal. 
The Cardinals have gotten off to a slow start, but remain vastly superior to San Francisco, which is a bottom-three team. Arizona will be extremely focused at 1-3 and off bad losses to the Bills and Rams. 
Stanton is a downgrade from Palmer, but he is more mobile, will be coached up by astute coach Bruce Arians and has an array of weapons, including David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and an emerging John Brown. 
Palmer's concussion is the main topic of this matchup, but the 49ers just lost the heart-and-soul of their defense with Pro Bowl linebacker NaVorro Bowman injured last week and out for the year. The 49ers aren't likely to have injured defensive lineman DeForest Buckner either. Those injuries really weaken the 49ers' run defense.
Johnson could run wild here and the threat of him should open up play-action for Stanton. The short practice week hurts the 49ers even more than the Cardinals because of these key defensive injuries and the 49ers' defense being on the field an average of eight more plays per game above the league average due to Chip Kelly's up-tempo offensive pace. 
The Cardinals also are well-coached on defense. They bring a variety of blitz packages and can take advantage of Blaine Gabbert's jittery pocket presence and lack of downfield receiving weapons. 

This should be an exciting, high-scoring game. But Western Kentucky is the superior team with a stronger defense, better special teams and more weapons offensively than Louisiana Tech. 
The Hilltoppers have proven dominant in Conference USA winning 13 league games in a row. Their average victory margin in conference since the start of last season is by four touchdowns.
Both teams are well coached. Louisiana Tech's Trent Taylor is the best playmaker, but Western Kentucky has more receiving depth. Western Kentucky also has a dangerous returner in Nacarius Fant and a strong-legged kicker in Skyler Simcox.  
Western Kentucky is battled-tested, too, having played Alabama and Vanderbilt during the past four weeks. 

Maybe the oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. But the Vikings' home field advantage, with their new indoor $16 billion stadium, is worth four points right there and these teams are not even. The Vikings are much better.
So I'm locking into this point spread now as I envision it to go higher during the week when more people start playing attention.
The Vikings are a physical, disciplined team with excellent coaching and a defense that is becoming more dominant week to week, which isn't surprising given the tremendous talent at each position. The Vikings have held the Titans to 16 points, the Packers to 14 points and Panthers to 10 points. 
Since Mike Zimmer came on board - and hiring a top level staff to assist him - the Vikings have covered an amazing 75 percent of their games going 27-9 ATS! 
Minnesota is better off with the more accurate and downfield attacker Sam Bradford at quarterback than it was when Teddy Bridgewater was under center. Adrian Peterson's injury is overrated. He was averaging 1.6 yards per carry. The Vikings are fine with Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata replacing Peterson. They did the job two years ago when Peterson missed the season and are better receiving targets out of the backfield than Peterson. 
The Giants have upgraded their defense, but it doesn't compare to Minnesota's. The Giants remain turnover and penalty-prone. Ben McAdoo can't compare to Zimmer as a head coach. The Giants just lost Shane Vereen for the season further weakening an already well below average ground attack. 

Look for the Steelers offense and Ben Roethlisberger to pick up now that Le'Veon Bell has returned to the lineup. Not only is Bell a top-five running back, but he also could be the team's second-best receiver behind only the incomparable Antonio Brown. 
The Chiefs have gone against weak quarterbacks the past two weeks in Brock Osweiler and erratic Ryan Fitzpatrick. Kansas City only has three sacks on the season, missing its top pass rusher Justin Houston. The Chiefs' lack of cornerback depth should get exposed here as the Steelers plan on sometimes putting Bell in the slot. 
Kansas City has some underrated playmakers and expects to have Jamaal Charles for the first time this season. The Steelers have just one sack and have yielded 384, 412 and 426 yards in each of their three games with the yardage numbers going up in every game. The Eagles lit up Pittsburgh for 34 points, their season-high. The Eagles are coached by Doug Pederson, who for the previous three seasons was Andy Reid's offensive coordinator in Kansas City. The Chiefs run a similar West Coast offense to the Eagles with a lot of misdirection plays and screen passes. 
The Steelers are weak in the secondary with injuries and will be minus key linebacker Ryan Shazier, who is their top coverage linebacker. 

Let's not overthink this game. Tampa Bay is 3-15 SU, 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games. The Buccaneers don't know how to beat a good opponent such as the Broncos and this isn't a good fundamental matchup either for them.
Yet the oddsmaker has made a short line because the Broncos are playing their second consecutive road game and Tampa Bay is off a bad loss.
So what. Not only do the Broncos have a vastly superior defensive edge, but their coaching, experience and savvy are major advantages, too. 
Jameis Winston has great potential being in his second season. But he still forces things versus aggressive defenses. The Buccaneers have a minus 6 turnover ratio and are facing the top defense in the NFL. 
Denver has not allowed more than 20 points during any of its last eight games. The Broncos are giving up an average of 17.2 points per game during this span - and they've played better offenses than the Buccaneers in this time frame: Patriots, Steelers, Chargers, Panthers twice, Bengals twice and Colts.
The Broncos' pass defense is first-rate. The Broncos can be attacked on the ground, but the Buccaneers are missing their best running back, Doug Martin. 
Trevor Siemian is coming off his finest game as a pro. That was last week on the road against the Bengals, who have a much better defense than the Buccaneers.  

Carolina already has more regular season losses than it did during last year's regular season. That's because the Panthers have gone against two of the top defenses in the NFL - Broncos and Vikings. 
The Panthers actually could be better offensively than a year ago with Kelvin Benjamin in the lineup. Carolina is stepping way down in class defensively taking on the Falcons. The Panthers are at their best when they can bully and dominate the lines of scrimmage. They couldn't do that versus the Broncos and Vikings. They can against the finesse Falcons.
Carolina whipped the Falcons, 38-0, at home last season. But the Panthers won't forget losing 20-13 at Atlanta last season for their lone regular season defeat. This is a revenge spot for the Panthers and they catch the Falcons on a short week.
Even with the Falcons beating the defenseless Saints this past Monday, Atlanta still has covered just four of its last 15 games. Second-year head Falcons coach Dan Quinn hasn't been able to fix a leaky defense, nor upgrade a weak pass rush. 
Matt Ryan is having a big season so far and does play better in a dome setting, which this is. But the Falcons' two top wider receivers are both less than 100 percent. 

This total is lined well shortt of what it should be. Western Michigan edged Central Michigan, 41-39, last season in a game that had a combined 80 points scored. The offenses are just as potent this season. 
Western Michigan is 4-0 for the first time since 1994. The well-balanced Broncos feature an excellent quarterback, Zach Terrell, an outstanding wide receiver in Corey Davis, who is averaging 16.5 yards per catch, and three good running backs. The Broncos had a record-setting offense last season and those key players are all back.
The Broncos already have beaten a pair of Big Ten teams - Illinois and Northwestern - and rank 15th in the country in scoring at 43.8 points per game. They are 39th in yards gained.
Central Michigan is no slouch either at 3-1 and with a Week 2 upset victory against Oklahoma State, 30-27. The Chippewas have a big-time quarterback in Cooper Rush and strong receiving depth. They rate 34th in the nation in scoring at 39.5 points a game and are 35th in yards gained. 
Both team's defenses have improved, but not nearly enough to hold this score down. Central Michigan ranks 69th in pass defense while Western Michigan is 59th in pass defense.

Tommy Armstrong is playing as good, if not better, than any quarterback in the Big Ten. The dual-threat senior has thrown for 931 yards, rushed for four touchdowns and has just one interception. Thanks to Armstrong, the Cornhuskers put up 43 points versus Fresno State, 52 against Wyoming, 35 versus Oregon and 556 yards against Northwestern last week. 
Armstrong has an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Always a feared runner, Armstrong is averaging a career-high 8.78 yards per attempt on the ground. I see the Cornhuskers doing the job against an Illinois defense that hasn't played well in its last two games yielding nearly 500 rushing yards. 
Illinois, however, has a pair of dependable running backs who can open things up for quarterback Wes Lunt. 

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in the nation in pass defense. Boston College coach Steve Addazio already has stated his intentions to have his team run the ball a lot. That's another plus for the under. 
Note, too, that the Eagles have been a big under team when meeting non-league opponents. The under has cashed 27 of the last 36 times the Eagles have played a non-ACC foe. 

Boston College has Clemson on deck so a full, all-out effort can't be a natural given. Chances are the Eagles could let up if building a safe lead.

Buffalo has gotten better since turning to redshirt freshman quarterback Tyree Jackson, who has yet to be sacked. The Bulls rank No. 2 in pass defense. Boston College will attack via the ground, which is a plus for a big underdog.

Now that Notre Dame has hit rock bottom expect a strong performance here against a weak defense. 
Brian Kelly has cleaned house and put everyone on notice. It's one thing to lose to Texas and Michigan State. But a loss to Duke last week as a three-touchdown favorite has caused this stir. 
Notre Dame's problem isn't offense. DeShone Kizer is moving the ball and he's behind a very talented offensive line. Kizer should have a big game operating against Syracuse's vulnerable secondary. The Orangemen have allowed 131 points in their last three games against Louisville, South Florida and Connecticut, a weak offensive team.  
The Irish have too many athletes to stay this down on defense. There's a huge class difference here and the Irish won't lack motivation. Being on the road for the first time in four weeks actually is a good thing for the Irish because it forces them to focus and get away from all the criticism on the home front. 

There is more than a touchdown class difference here factoring in Cincinnati's home field advantage. This is made more by the Dolphins traveling on a short week and their multiple injuries. 
Miami was life and death with the Browns at home this past Sunday. It took three missed field goals by the Browns, including one at the end of regulation, that allowed the Dolphins to escape with an overtime victory. 
Cincinnati is one of the best all around teams in the NFL. The Bengals protect their home-field well, too, only losing five times during their last 25 games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals are off a disappointing home loss, though, to the Broncos. So there is little chance that they'll take the Dolphins for granted, or look past them. Even with that loss to Denver, Cincinnati still is 13-5-2 ATS in its past 20 games. 
The Bengals' defense has been solid, rather than outstanding. But look for the Bengals' defensive level to be raised a notch with the return from suspension of star linebacker and defensive leader Vontaze Burfict. 
The Dolphins are weak defensively in their back seven and could be without all three of their starting linebackers. Miami is vulnerable to A.J. Green and in big trouble offensively with their top runner, Arian Foster, out again and a cluster injury problem in the offensive line. 
Miami very well could be starting third-string center Kraig Urbik. Starting center Mike Pouncey is out at least another week with a hip injury and backup Anthony Steen suffered a high ankle sprain against the Browns. Also out for the Dolphins is starting tight end Jordan Cameron with a concussion. 
The combination of the Bengals' talent edge, home field advantage that is magnified by a short week and the many Miami injuries make the Bengals a solid play as they should win by double-digits. 

I believe the Bears will respond better with Brian Hoyer under center than Jay Cutler, who isn't a popular teammate. The Bears have more talent than their 0-2 record indicates.
The Bears did suffer multiple injuries on defense in their Monday night upset loss to the Eagles, but Dallas also is thin defensively due to injuries and multiple suspensions. 
The Cowboys' offense is limited by rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, who hasn't proven he can scare defenses when throwing downfield. Dallas is 2-14 the past 16 times Tony Romo hasn't played. 
The Bears should play extremely hard with their season already in deep peril at 0-2 and off an embarrassing Monday night home loss. 
The Cowboys have a terrible track record as a  home favorite failing to cover 12 of the past 14 times in that role going back to the middle of 2013. 

The Eagles have looked surprisingly good so far. But look at whom they have beaten - the winless Browns and winless Bears. 
Now the Eagles are stepping way up facing one of the top seven teams in the NFL. 
Ben Roethlisberger leads the NFL in touchdown passes. He can - and should - easily exploit a short-handed Eagles secondary that is minus cornerback Leodis McKelvin. The Eagles have looked better than they are defensively by facing Robert Griffin III and Jay Cutler/Brian Hoyer. Roethlisberger gets back his No. 2 wideout, Markus Wheaton, to go with Antonio Brown. The Steelers have two solid other wide receivers. 
Carson Wentz will be going against the best defense he's seen so far. He won't have tight end Zach Ertz either. The Eagles need to set up Wentz by churning out rushing yards. Wentz has never played from behind before. The chances are strong that happens here. The Eagles don't have the firepower to keep up with the Steelers' high-powered attack. 
The Steelers have been solid as chalk covering 10 the last 13 times when favored. 

The Dolphins are 0-2 and playing their first home game. They are in a kill spot. Except for a bad first half against New England, the Dolphins' defense has looked solid especially their front. 

The Browns are forced to go with third-string rookie quarterback Cody Kessler because of injuries to Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown. Kessler isn't nearly ready. He looked bad during preseason - overmatched - and he's not helped by the Browns' offensive line being much inferior to the Dolphins' defensive front.

The Browns also may be without their best defensive back, Joe Haden. 

Miami's offense should pick up having gotten more in tune with offensive guru Adam Gase's system. The Dolphins step way down in class having opened on the road against Seattle and New England. Those two teams can make any team look bad. 

The Browns also aren't used to playing in South Florida kind of heat. Look for their depth-shy team to wear down in the second half.

I want desperate teams, especially taking this many points in a division matchup. It's circle-the-wagons time for the 0-2 Redskins.
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog getting the money eight of the last 11 times. 
The Giants are 2-0 having eked out last-minute victories against the Cowboys and Saints by a combined four points. New York's defense is much improved from a year ago courtesy of a $200 million spending spree. But it's far from dominant and the Giants offense has yet to impress averaging 18 points a game. The Giants have a below average ground attack.
Kirk Cousins isn't Pro Bowl caliber. But he's also better than what he has shown so far this season. He has excellent receiving weapons - especially with a matchup of Jordan Reed against the Giants mediocre linebackers - and has received excellent pass protection. The Giants have a below average pass rush.
The Redskins have moved the ball they've just had trouble putting up touchdowns in the red zone. That should change with better play-calling, including not overusing fade routes that don't work. 
Josh Norman shores up the Redskins' secondary and the coaching staff finally has figured out to move Norman around. That means he's likely to be shadowing Odell Beckham Jr. Norman got inside Beckham's head last season. He's probably the cornerback that Beckham least likes to face. 

The Packers' offense will pick up at home where Aaron Rodgers and Co. are more comfortable. Green Bay opened with its first two games on the road. Jordy Nelson should be close to full strength now that we're in Week 3.
The Lions will be missing their two best defensive players, pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah and linebacker DeAndre Levy. 
Detroit can put up points with its no-huddle offense. The Lions also catch a huge break in that the Packers will be without three of their top four defensive players as out are Clay Matthews, Sam Shields and Morgan Burnett. The Packers' defensive front seven could be especially thin, too, as Letroy Guion and Datone Jones are doubtful. 

This is my total of the week. Punting can't be overlooked here. Neither team has a strong punting game. Air Force can especially exploit a short field. The Falcons lead the nation in rush yards per game and are fifth in total offense. They will be well rested, too, following a bye week.

Air Force scored 48 points on Georgia State in its last game two weeks ago. By contrast, Wisconsin managed only 23 points against Georgia State and that was in Madison. 
Utah State has capable skill position players in dual threat quarterback Kent Myers and running backs Devante Mays and Tonny Lindsey.
Both teams have strong kick returners.

Both teams have a strong history of going over the total in Mountain West Conference action. Air Force has gone above the total seven times in a row in conference, while the over has cashed nine of the last 10 times Utah State has played a Mountain West opponent. 

Don't look for a game like last year's 44-41 shootout won by Memphis. Bowling Green won't be able to keep pace this year. The Falcons are averaging fewer than 20 points per game. The Falcons have not received good quarterback play and haven't decided on a full-time starter. 
Memphis should put up its share of points,but the Tigers are far from perfect offensively. They gave up five sacks to Kansas last week and have a much bigger game next week when they play Mississippi on the road. So the Tigers likely will be pulling starters if they build a big lead. 

I haven't been impressed with Baylor, which has played weak competition and didn't cover any of its three games. Facing Northwestern State, SMU and Rice is not a good non-conference buildup to stepping up against Oklahoma State. It's not stepping out to say the Bears played the weakest non-conference schedule of any Big 12 team.
Baylor's great defensive stats are skewed by this easy schedule. Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph and and wide receiver James Washington can hurt any defense. An added plus for the Cowboys would be if safety Orion Stewart can't play after injuring his ribs against Rice last week and if cornerback Ryan Reid has to miss a second straight week after sustaining a high ankle sprain versus SMU. 
I believe Baylor quarterback Seth Russell is a real downgrade from recent Baylor quarterbacks. The Bears have had to endure a lot of uncertainty and a coaching change due to recent scandals. It has hurt their recruiting. This is their first big test in the post Art Briles era and I can't see the Bears winning by more than a touchdown against this high quality opponent that has a real chip on its shoulder from getting ripped off against Central Michigan two weeks ago on an extra play that shouldn't have been allowed. 

Take good early value by playing this line now as I see it climbing past three touchdowns. New Mexico State can't keep up with Troy. The Aggies got buried by a score of 52-7 last year by the Trojans - and that was in Las Cruces. 

This is the Aggies' third road game in four weeks and second in two weeks after playing at SEC foe Kentucky this past Saturday. They don't have the defense and depth to hang here. 

Mighty Michigan can nearly cover this total by itself averaging 53 points per game. The Wolverines host Penn State, which is giving up nearly 35 points per game during its past two games and is extremely thin at linebacker. 
Already missing two linebackers, the Nittany Lions lost perhaps their best defensive player, senior linebacker Nyeem Wartman-White, to a season-ending knee injury last week. Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight has established himself with three consecutive strong games. The Wolverines will be looking to go over the total for an eighth straight time at home. 
Penn State should be able to put up its share of points against a Michigan defense that yielded four touchdowns to Colorado at home last week. The Nittany Lions have a pair of potential sophomore stars on offense in quarterback Trace McSorley, who is proving to be an adequate replacement for Christian Hackenberg, and running back Saquon Barkley.

People are focusing on Notre Dame having already lost twice. But Duke is way down this season with a terrible loss to Wake Forest and then Northwestern. The Blue Devils aren't 100 percent healthy on defense and lack the playmakers to keep up with a frustrated Irish squad in need of a wipeout performance. 
Now Duke, which is full of underclassmen, has to try to step up against Notre Dame. It's not going to happen. The Blue Devils haven't seen this kind of offensive talent. Notre Dame, on the other hand, gets to drop way down in class having already gone up against Texas and Michigan State. 
This is a matchup where laying three touchdowns is cheap.

Pittsburgh has triple revenge having lost the past three years to North Carolina, never by more than seven points during this span. The Panthers are 5-0 ATS when playing with triple revenge. 
Another favorable spot for the Panthers is drawing the Tar Heels with a look-ahead road game against Florida State the following week while they finally get a breather hosting down-in-the-dumps Marshall. 
Matchup-wise, the Panthers' outstanding running attack, led by James Conner, can control the ball and gauge a Tar Heels rush defense that ranks 106th giving up more than 226 yards per game on the ground. North Carolina just surrendered 495 yards, 28 first downs and 28 points to James Madison, an FCS team, last week. 
Pittsburgh's defense has been disappointing up to this point. But I trust Pat Narduzzi, one of the most respected defensive minds in the country, to fix things. 

The wheels are coming off USC under Clay Helton. The Trojans are 1-4 since he was named permanent coach during last season. The Trojans have bad chemistry and face a Utah squad big on revenge after losing to the Trojans, 42-24, last year. The Utes were 6-0 entering that game, ranked seventh in the country. 
The Trojans have some talented playmakers, but they're wasted in a dysfunctional program. Playing a day earlier than usual and at always-tough Rice-Eccles Stadium are big disadvantages for the Trojans. 
USC was pounded by Alabama losing by 46 points. The Trojans already have made a quarterback change. I can't see the Trojans having the necessary focus and discipline to win this Pac-12 road game. They are off a bad road loss to Stanford, a very physical opponent, and now will be playing away from home for the third time in four weeks. The Trojans have failed to cover in 15 of their last 21 away matchups. 
Utah ranks No. 2 in the nation in sacks with 15 and is No. 8 nationally in pass-efficiency defense. The Utes are balanced on offense and strong on special teams. They are in much better shape mentally and physically for this game than USC.

Much is made of legendary defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's great record against rookie quarterbacks. Texans coach Bill O'Brien doesn't have a shabby record either in this regard. His Texans are 6-0 when facing a first-year quarterback.
Look for that mark to reach 7-0 after Thursday's Texans-Patriots game. 
As great a coach as Bill Belichick is - and there is none better - he's extremely limited by the timing of this matchup even though the Patriots are home. Jimmy Garoppolo isn't going to be able to go leaving Belichick no choice but to toss rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett into the fire. 
Brissett isn't nearly ready to start an NFL game and Belichick and his brilliant staff don't have enough time to coach him up with this being a Thursday game. The Patriots may again be without Rob Gronkowski, their top playmaker. New England has to heavily rely on power back LeGarrette Blount, who is entering this short week having carried the ball 29 times this past Sunday. So he could get tired early. 
Perhaps Belichick could dodge this bad combination of quarterback injury/Thursday game if his team was playing a lesser foe. They aren't, though. The Texans are a playoff team with an improved offense and the NFL's third-ranked defense. The Texans lead the NFL in sacks and J.J. Watt is just now starting to come around. 
I'm not a big fan of Brock Osweiler, but he's an improvement on what the Texans have had at quarterback. DeAndre Hopkins is an upper tier wide receiver and first-round rookie Will Fuller has looked good. The Texans' offensive line showed signs of coming around in the fourth quarter against the Chiefs last Sunday. Lamar Miller is an above average back and the Patriots give up 4.6 yards per rush attempt. 
New England's pass rush is down with Rob Ninkovich suspended and Dont'a Hightower perhaps missing another game due to a knee injury.
The Texans know the Patriots extremely well despite being a non-division opponent. That's because they have a number of ex-Patriots as coaches and players, including O'Brien, Mike Vrabel and Vince Wilfork. 
The timing is wrong here for the Patriots. This is the Texans' chance to shine. 

This line is too short. The Bears are much superior to the Eagles. The line doesn't reflect that because it's just Week 2 and the oddsmaker is swayed by how well Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz looked opening week and the Bears losing and not covering versus the Texans.
Wentz, though, went against maybe the worst defense in the NFL - the Browns. He was home, too. Now he makes his road debut and it's on the Monday night national stage against a much-improved, well-coached Bears defense.
Wentz has an aging offensive line and below average wide receivers. He's not likely to have his security blanket either as tight end Zach Ertz has a serious rib injury and is not likely to play. I see Wentz struggling in this spot.
Jay Cutler has physical tools, but is not an elite quarterback. We know that. But Cutler will do better this year with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. I rate Jeffery as the eighth-best wide receiver in the NFL. His presence is huge for Cutler's confidence and the Bears offense. The Eagles secondary can't cover him. 
Cutler is at his best when he's not facing adversity. He won't have to deal with that in this matchup. 

It's easy to think offense when talking Falcons and Raiders. The Raiders nipped the Saints, 35-34, in Week 1 for a combined 69 points while the Falcons lost 31-24 to the Buccaneers for a combined 55 points.
So it's no surprise the oddsmaker has hung a high total on this matchup. 
But there is more than meets the eye here. Both teams are coached by men with strong defensive backgrounds - Dan Quinn and Jack Del Rio. Each coach is in his second year so their defensive systems should be kicking in soon. I'm not suggesting either team's defense is first-rate - because they certainly aren't - but they will be improved. The Raiders defense is loaded with high draft picks. 
So I see this total being overadjusted based on perception and opening week results. The Raiders put up their points against the worst defense in the NFC and were playing on a fast track. 
Matt Ryan has a history of playing better at home and inside domes on a carpet surface. This is a road game for the Falcons on grass. Ryan has averaged 1.3 touchdown passes in his last 16 away contests compared to 1.7 touchdown passes at home. The Falcons play at a slower pace on the road. It's a factor why the under cashed in seven of their eight road matchups last season, including the last six. 
Ryan's two best receivers, Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu, both aren't 100 percent because of ankle injuries. 

Tennessee is a much improved team. The oddsmaker is a beat slow in realizing this based on the line. 
The Titans should have beaten the Vikings in Week 1. They led by 10 at halftime, outgained the Vikings and their defense didn't allow a touchdown. 
Unfortunately for the Titans they self-destructed. The Lions are noted chokers themselves. They are likely to be missing their star linebacker, DeAndre Levy, and are very weak defending tight ends having surrendered the most touchdowns last year to tight ends. Detroit yielded three tight end touchdowns to the Colts last week. The Titans have one of the best tight ends in Delaine Walker, who led all tight ends in receptions last year. 
Detroit has a huge lookahead game, too, facing the Packers in Wisconsin next Sunday. The Lions lack the maturity and overall talent to cover a margin in this spread range against an under-the-radar improved foe that has a pair of good runners, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry. A strong ground attack is pivotal for an underdog on the road. 

I see this as a clear kill spot for the Panthers and I want to lock in now before the number hits 14 - which it will and then probably still go higher.  
The Panthers hold edges in all areas against the 49ers. Not just minor edges either. The Panthers have all-pros at many positions. The 49ers have below average starters at many positions.  
The 49ers' problems are made more difficult by the scheduling dynamics. The Panthers have had nearly 1 1/2 weeks to sit around stewing about blowing a lead to the Broncos in the opening Thursday night game. Cam Newton is going to have a much easier time against the 49ers defense. 
The 49ers are fat and happy after whipping the Rams at home this past Monday night. Now they have to make a cross-country journey on a short week. Carolina is 19-7-1 in its last 27 home games. 

I like Mark Dantonio in this underdog role. The spot is good, too, for the Spartans.
Notre Dame lost a lot of defensive talent either through used-up eligibility or suspensions. Michigan State is the healthier team and has had two weeks to game plan and get senior quarterback Tyler O'Connor ready after being idle last week. 
O'Connor should be ready for his moment having spent the past three years backing up Connor Cook. 
Michigan State is 9-3 the past 12 times it has taken on a ranked opponent. The Spartans are 6-2-1 ATS as a road 'dog winning five of those games straight-up. 

I haven't forgotten about last year's game when Georgia won, 9-6, holding the Tigers to a season-low 164 yards of total offense. 
While I don't expect so few points to be scored in this year's game, I do strongly believe oddsmakers have set too high of a total.
Missouri is better defensively - particularly in the defensive line - than it has showed. Georgia's offensive line has been struggling, too. It was embarrassing for the Bulldogs linemen not to be able to get a push against Nicholls State, an FCS team. The Bulldogs haven't completely settled on their starting quarterback either. 
Missouri's offense is overrated. The Tigers played Eastern Michigan last week racking up 61 points. They had scored only 11 points versus West Virginia opening week. 
These are a couple of under teams, too. The under has cashed in 14 of Georgia's last 17 games while the Tigers have gone under in 12 of their last 15 home contests. 

New Mexico State is a bottom-three Sun Belt team. Kentucky is an SEC school with far better athletes. New Mexico State has never beaten an SEC team in 19 tries. 
Not only is there a huge talent gap - three touchdown's worth - but the spot is right for a Kentucky blowout.
New Mexico State is coming off a huge 32-31 upset win over arch-rival New Mexico last week as 9 1/2-point 'dogs. That win was emotional and physically draining for the Aggies. New Mexico State is 0-4 SU and ATS the past four years the week after playing the Lobos losing to the spread by an average of more than 10 points. That's a direct reflection on the seniors. 
The Aggies also have a far bigger game on deck when they open Sun Belt play against Troy. 
Kentucky is in desperate need of a victory, the more lopsided the better. This is a kill spot for the Wildcats and I expect them to take full advantage. 

Central Michigan is going to gets its points against a UNLV defense that doesn't tackle well and has only two sacks in two games. The Chippewas have an outstanding quarterback, Cooper Rush. He's a four-year starter and the active leader in passing yards with 9,952.
The Rebels couldn't put any pressure on UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen last week in a 42-21 loss and I don't see them doing it here on the road again.
The Rebels can run the ball, though, with Lexington Thomas. The Rebels have become an over team under second-year coach Tony Sanchez going above the number in 16 of their last 21 games. 

Wisconsin scored 54 points on Akron last week at home and Akron is better than Georgia State. 
The physical Badgers just wear weaker, depth-shy opponents down. That will be the case here as Georgia State got worn down in Week 1 by Air Force surrendering 48 points on the road. The Panthers surrendered 531 yards to the Falcons as their defense was on the field for nearly 46 minutes. The Badgers rank No. 2 in the nation in time of possession.
So Wisconsin very well could cover this total by itself. But just in case Georgia State can take advantage of Wisconsin defensive injuries and that the Badgers will be resting some of their defenders in anticipation of next week's Big Ten opener against Michigan State. 
The Badgers are a running team with a deep set of running backs. So their reserves should be able to keep pounding the Panthers' defense. 

Biased by the Bills playing at home on a short week, oddsmakers opened Buffalo a favorite against the Jets.
Wrong. By Wednesday afternoon, the marketplace already was in full correction mode. Yes, it's difficult being the road team for a Thursday matchup. But this is just a short trip for the Jets and these division rivals know each other extremely well. So normal negatives for a Thursday road team aren't really a factor for this game. 
Rex Ryan, of course, used to coach the Jets failing to make the playoffs during his last four years from 2011-2014. The Jets won four games in Ryan's last season two years ago. New York won 10 games under Todd Bowles, Ryan's replacement, last season. 
No defense suffered more regression than the Bills last season when Ryan came on board. The Jets hold a huge head coaching edge. They also have a sharper offensive coordinator. Chan Gailey helped the Jets set team records in total yards, passing yards and completed passes last season accomplishing that with former Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. 
Greg Roman is the Bills' offensive coordinator. He's one of the least innovative and most ineffective coordinators in the NFL. A work-in-progress Ravens defense held the Bills offense to 160 yards of offense and 11 first downs in a 13-7 opening week victory. Roman's ultra conservative game plan didn't help. Neither did the play of Tyrod Taylor, whose feel good story of a year ago could take some serious regression now that opposing defensive gurus - such as Bowles - have had a year of film to study him. Taylor has never played worse. 
The Bills are going to be missing key players on both sides of the ball. Fitzpatrick is at his worst when he's forcing things. That shouldn't happen here, though, with the Bills minus projected rookie starting linebackers Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland - both injured - and suspended Pro Bowl nose tackle Marcell Dareus.  
The Jets, meanwhile, welcome back Sheldon Richardson, who was suspended for just the first game. There may not be a better defensive line trio than the Jets' Muhammad Wilkerson, Leonard Williams and Richardson. Wilkerson already is a star and this looks like Williams' breakout season. 
Buffalo is going to have to deal with the Jets' dominant defensive line minus offensive left tackle Cordy Glenn, out with an ankle injury. His replacement, Cyrus Kouandjio, struggled against the Ravens. 
LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins are the Bills' playmakers. McCoy has been disappointing the past couple of seasons and could be on the downside of his career while Watkins is enduring pain from his surgically repaired left foot. There's even the possibility he may not play. 
Prideful Darrelle Revis was torched by A.J. Green last week. Revis isn't in the discussion anymore for best cornerback. But he's still Darrelle Revis and he'll be going all out to redeem himself probably locked on Watkins. 

Given the low quality of these two offenses, the oddsmaker opened this total way too high. Unfortunately the marketplace realizes this and the total has been bet down since I released the play. I still like the play but at less than 43 the unit rating goes down.
San Francisco finished last in points in 2015 averaging fewer than 15 points per game. The Rams were 29th in points putting up less than 18 per game.
The Rams are a conservative, ground emphasis team that has a bottom-five passing attack. 
The total opened higher than it should have been because Chip Kelly now coaches the 49ers. But he has perhaps the worst skill position talent in the NFC. The Rams' strength is their defense, particularly their pass rush. It should have no problem keeping check-down quarterback Blaine Gabbert from making big plays.The 49ers are a work-in-progress. This is their first game under Kelly. 
Kelly may even alter his ultra up-tempo style to protect his defense knowing this is one of the few games the 49ers have a legitimate chance of winning.  

I'm not sure if the Colts would win this game if they were healthy - which they are not. Indy, in fact, is heavily banged-up. Out are the Colts' best defensive back, Vontae Davis, best defensive lineman, Henry Anderson, and one of their few decent offensive linemen left guard Jake Mewhort. 
The oddsmaker has devalued Detroit too much because of the retirement of Calvin Johnson.
Matthew Stafford was one of the hottest quarterbacks during the second half of the season last year with the second-highest passer rating during the last eight games and a 19-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio during that span. If not for an Aaron Rodgers' Hail Mary touchdown pass the Lions would have gone 7-1 in their last eight games. 
Johnson, of course, will be missed but the Lions still have three excellent wide receivers in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and a still effective Anquan Boldin. The Colts have two new cornerbacks, over-the-hill veteran Antonio Cromartie and rookie T.J. Green. The Colts aren't going to be able to stop the Lions' passing game while the Colts may not be able to keep up with their beat up offensive line. 

The Chargers will be seeing blood here in a double revenge spot. This year the Chargers are healthy in the offensive line, improved defensively and have Ken Whisenhunt back as their offensive coordinator, a huge plus for Philip Rivers. 
Keenan Allen is back, too, for the Chargers. Expect much better from Melvin Gordon. The Chiefs aren't going to be able to control Rivers especially with their top front seven defender, Justin Houston, out. The Chiefs lose a huge portion of their pass rush with Houston out. 
Kansas City also is likely to be without its best running back, Jamaal Charles. His replacements are nothing special. 
Bottom line is this is too many points for the Chiefs to be laying in a division matchup. 

Minnesota is much superior to Tennessee in all facets except quarterback and that includes coaching. The Vikings have their sights set on reaching the Super Bowl. Their roster is very strong with lots of young defensive talent, Adrian Peterson to take the pressure off Shaun Hill, more wide receiving threats and an upgraded offensive line. 
After losing to a bad 49ers team last year on the road in their opener, the Vikings should be fully prepared this time around. They know they can't take a loss with the Packers and Panthers up next in Weeks 2 and 3. The Vikings rebounded from that defeat to the 49ers to cover their last seven road games. Peterson and an emerging defense are an excellent road formula. 
The Titans have lost 14 of their 16 home games during the last two seasons. Marcus Mariota is a promising second-year quarterback, but the Titans are in a huge rebuilding stage. They have a lot of youth, new starters and lack receiving weapons for Mariota. Their talent level can't compare to the Vikings. 

I'm skeptical of Brock Osweiler and a banged-up offensive line that is likely to be without star left tackle Duane Brown. I'm certainly not swallowing the hype on Osweiler. 
Both teams are slow-motion, grind-out types where points mean something. So taking more than a field goal is big. Last year, all but five of the Bears' games were decided by five points or less. 
The Bears are well coached and fundamentally sound. John Fox is 30-12 ATS on the road in his NFL coaching career and knows the Texans and Osweiler from when he coached the Broncos. The Bears covered six of their last seven away games last season. 
I'm expecting a strong defensive game plan from Fox and his ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio with so much time to prepare. I'll take their experience, savvy and tricks against Osweiler and a vanilla Houston offense that had to deal with multiple offensive line injuries during preseason and isn't likely to be in sync here.
The Bears offense is ready to take off and become a lot more vertical with a healthy Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White. Jay Cutler is far more effective with a healthy Jeffery. 

Washington State under Mike Leach has been at its best versus strong competition and as a road 'dog, both of which are in play here. The Cougars are 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus above .500 opponents and have covered 12 of the last 15 times as an away underdog. 
The Cougars have proven their road strength by winning at Oregon, UCLA, USC, Arizona and California during the past three years under Leach. 
Certainly the Cougars have the offense to hang with Boise State sparked by quarterback Luke Falk and wide receiver Gabe Marks. They can hurt a Boise State defense that does not have a stellar pass rush nor secondary. 
It's on defense where the oddsmaker doubts Washington State with this line after the Cougars lost, 45-42, to Eastern Washington as heavy favorites during opening week. 
But Eastern Washington has an underrated offense and the Cougars were without their best defensive player, suspended safety Shalom Luani. He's back from suspension now and will play here, which should greatly shore up the Cougars' secondary. 

The spread doesn't reflect the vast difference between these two teams. Not to mention that Duke's David Cutcliffe is one of my favorite coaches as the Blue Devils are 24-11-1 ATS in their last 36 games. 
Duke might appear down this season, although quarterback Daniel Jones' play against NC Central last week was a cause for optimism, but the Blue Devils are still a touchdown better than lowly Wake Forest. 
The Demon Deacons gained only 175 yards against Tulane last week in a 7-3 victory. The Demon Deacons can't match Duke's passing game. The Blue Devils should have their confidence up scoring on seven of their first 10 possessions last week. 
Duke has won and covered each of the past four seasons versus Wake Forest with each victory coming by six or more points. 

Wisconsin is one of the great party schools and I can see the Badgers still celebrating their opening week upset victory against LSU, the Badgers' biggest win over a higher-ranked opponent since 2010 when they knocked off top-ranked Ohio State.

Akron became decent last year finishing 8-5, including posting a 23-21 victory against Utah State in a bowl game. 
The Zips are a dangerous foe for the Badgers and not just because of the timing. Akron spreads the field and has a good quarterback, Thomas Woodson. He was the MAC Player of the Week this past week after throwing a school-record six touchdown passes in a 47-24 win against Virginia Military.
Now I fully get that there's a jump as wide as the Grand Canyon going from Virginia Military to playing Wisconsin especially in Madison. But the Badgers are at their best defensively going against power run teams such as LSU where their strength of playing good assignment football shows through. They are more vulnerable if forced to cover the field defending against a spread offense. 
Wisconsin also has offensive line issues due to injuries and a surprise retirement and its quarterback situation appears weak as usual. 

I see the Panthers getting their revenge on the Broncos after losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. Carolina didn't lose the Super Bowl based on talent. The Panthers out-gained the Broncos by 121 yards and had 10 more first downs than Denver.
Certainly the Broncos are worthy of respect despite their less-than-inspiring quarterback situation. But Carolina is the more complete team extremely strong on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton just had his worst game of the season in the Super Bowl.
Newton, of course, is the real deal and gives the Panthers a monster quarterback edge. He has his top receiver weapon, Kelvin Benjamin, back now which wasn't the case in the Super Bowl. 
Denver's defense still is top-notch, but several important players did leave. Carolina lost its great cornerback, Josh Norman. But the Panthers rate far better than the Broncos with a top-three quarterback compared to a bottom-three quarterback. 
The right team is favored here. 

First it's important to note this game isn't in Madison. It's in Green Bay at Lambeau Field and LSU expects to have 30,000 fans. The seating capacity is 80,735. So almost half the crowd will be for the Tigers. 
As far as the matchup, it couldn't come at a worst time for Wisconsin. The Badgers need to shore up their offensive line because of injuries. Their best offensive lineman recently retired due to repeated injuries. They also are unsettled at quarterback. It would have been best for Wisconsin to ease into their schedule. That's certainly not the case here.
LSU is an absolute powerhouse with tremendous skill position talent. Leonard Fournette rivals Deshaun Watson as the best player in college football. 
Highly respected Tigers defensive coordinator Dave Aranda knows the Badgers inside-and-out having been their defensive coordinator the previous three seasons before coming to LSU this season. The Badgers hated to see him go. 
Wisconsin is going to lose anywhere from three to six games this season. The Badgers aren't in LSU's class and that point is made worse for Wisconsin by this being the opening game. 

South Alabama is well-coached and came close to qualifying for a bowl for a second consecutive season. One of their victories last season came on the road as 17 1/2-point 'dogs to San Diego State. Meeting an SEC foe is huge for South Alabama. The Jaguars are going to be far more motivated for this matchup than Mississippi State, which has a home game against South Carolina next week and then plays at LSU the following week. 
Those, of course, are both SEC contests. Bulldogs coach Dan Mullen isn't interested in running up a big score against South Alabama, or tipping his hand to South Carolina and LSU by pulling off any trickery or twists in this matchup.. 
Mullen is more interested in replacing Dak Prescott. The Bulldogs have a huge question at quarterback. They also have problems in the secondary losing both projected starting cornerbacks. 
Note, too, that Jaguars defensive coordinator, Kane Wommack, is the son of Mississippi's defensive coordinator. So you know he picked the brain of his father to help defend against Mississippi State. 

Louisiana Lafayette is in bounce back mode. Prior to last season, the Ragin Cajuns had won nine games four consecutive seasons. 
The Ragin Cajuns have LSU transfer Anthony Jennings at quarterback now and a star running back, Elijah McGuire. He's rushed for 3,185 yards with 35 touchdowns during his Lafayette career averaging 6.6 yards per carry. He also is the school's first running back to have 100 receptions. Boise State's defensive line has zero combined starts. 
But it's not just offense that should keep Lafayette in the ball game, but the situation, too. This is an 11 a.m. Central time start. The Broncos are traveling cross-country and not used to this early start. They haven't played at this early time in four years. There's another situational problem for Boise State. The Broncos aren't used to Louisiana's heat and humidity this time of year. The temperature is expected to reach 90 for this game. 

Colorado has its best team since 2007 with 18 returning starters. Colorado State could have its worst team in five years. Yet because some look upon this matchup as some sort of in-state rivalry, the spread is less than double-digits. 
Wrong number. The Buffaloes should roll past the Rams with huge edges in the trenches and in the passing game. 
Colorado is deep at running back and has a top wide receiver in Shay Fields. Colorado State has to replace it's entire defensive front and is thin and inexperienced in the secondary. Senior Buffaloes quarterback Sefo Liufau and Fields should put up big numbers.
The Buffaloes showed defensive improvement last year and that should continue this season. They return nine defensive starters plus get back suspended senior nose tackle Josh Tupou. Colorado State lost its best receiver from last season.  
The Buffaloes have won and covered five of the last six in this series and are in great position to extend that run given the timing of this matchup. 

The Tracy Claeys era kicks off in Minnesota with this matchup. Look for the Gophers to be more spread out offensively - and be more daring - with the coaching change from Jerry Kill to Claeys.

This is good news for Gophers quarterback Mitch Leidner. The Gophers certainly are going to run the ball, too, with Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith. They combined for nearly 1,400 yards rushing last season. 
Claeys probably wouldn't be opposed to piling up points for the home crowd in his head coaching debut. The Gophers can do that against a Beavers defense that was one of the worst in the country last season finishing 113th in scoring and 115th in total defense. Oregon State remains young on defense, very much a continued work-in-progress. 
However, Oregon State has the offense to hang with Minnesota. Second-year Oregon State head coach Gary Andersen is a sharp offensive coach. It looks like the Beavers have found themselves a good quarterback, too, in Darrell Garretson. He was a recruit of Andersen back from when he was coaching Utah State. Garretson has played in 14 games throwing for 2,576 yards with a 63 percent completion rate and 137.9 passer rating. He looked sharp in the spring. 
The Gophers probably are going to slip defensively having lost three of their five leading tacklers. 
Factor it all out and the two teams should combine to easily break the 50-point barrier. 

Five times Denver has been an underdog this season. Five times the Broncos have covered winning four of those games straight-up.
The Panthers are this big of a favorite, in part, because of how strong they looked in beating the Cardinals by 34 points in the second of the two championship games. 
Denver holding New England to just 18 points the AFC title game is just as impressive, though. The Broncos held the Steelers and Patriots to an average of 17 points in playoff competition while dealing Tom Brady his lowest quarterback rating of the season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos ranked No. 1 in total defense, pass defense and sacks. 
Carolina's defense isn't as dominant relying on an NFL-best 39 takeaways and plus 20 turnover ratio. The Panthers are down two starters in their secondary and likely to be missing star linebacker Thomas Davis, who suffered a broken arm against the Cardinals. Davis was playing as well as any Carolina defender. Denver lost its starting safeties against New England, but both vowed to play in the Super Bowl. 
Carolina only beat one opponent, Seattle, with a winning record when it was playing outside of Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers lost to Atlanta the last time they were away from home. The Panthers have been to one Super Bowl - back in 2003. They are an inexperienced in this setting and a shaky favorite having nearly blown late leads against the Colts, Packers, Giants and Seahawks in the playoffs when they won 31-24 after being up 31-0. 
The Broncos are 'dogs in this range because of the quarterback matchup. Cam Newton deserves to be the MVP. Peyton Manning is Alex Smith now. But Manning also looked the healthiest he's looked in months. Manning may be the wisest quarterback to ever play. Certainly he's in that discussion. He knows his defense is elite - capable of winning the Super Bowl.
There is no more opportunistic team than the Panthers. The key for the Broncos is not turning the ball over. Manning's regular season statistics show horrific numbers - a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a last-place passer rating. However, the savvy Manning hasn't turned the ball over during the playoffs. He had a 103.8 quarterback rating in the first half against the Patriots. 
Manning has better wide receivers than Newton and is smart enough to stay away from shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. Instead, Manning will ride C.J. Anderson, who has been at least Jonathan Stewart's equal averaging 5.6 yards a carry during his last four games, and let his defense win the game. 
The Broncos just played in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. They are looking for atonement for a 43-8 loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers' defense isn't nearly as dominant as Seattle's was two years ago especially minus starting defensive backs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They also could be down safety Roman Harper and pass rusher Jared Allen. 
Newton and the Panthers are thrilled to be on center stage. How will they handle it? Accuracy isn't Newton's strength. If he comes out tight the Broncos' elite defense surely will take advantage. Wade Phillips is one of the sharpest defensive coordinators of all time. He has two weeks to prepare and major cards to defend against Newton, including a pair of dominant edge pass rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. 
The bottom line is taking more than a field goal with an elite defense, more experienced big-game team and having one of the sharpest quarterbacks of all-time with a better supporting cast around him. 

Carolina is a rising power that is ready to make the next leap having made the playoffs a third straight season. This is the Panthers' best team as evidenced by 16-1 record and eight players being named to either the first or second team Pro Bowl squad. 
Cam Newton is the likely MVP accounting for 45 touchdowns and more than 4,400 yards throwing and running. Newton is more trustworthy than Carson Palmer, who also has enjoyed a brilliant campaign but hasn't played well in Arizona's past two games. The Cardinals were buried at home by the Seahawks and were lucky rather than good versus the Packers this past Saturday night winning in overtime. Palmer had not won a playoff game in his 13 seasons until that win against Green Bay. He was fortunate not to have thrown more than two interceptions as Sam Shields dropped several poorly thrown passes by Palmer. 
Led by cornerback Josh Norman and linebacker Luke Kuechly - perhaps the two best at their respective positions - the Panthers led the NFL with 39 takeaways. The Cardinals' luck at avoiding injury stopped late in the season. They are minus safety Tyrann Mathieu and linebacker Alex Okafor. 
The Cardinals rarely can generate quarterback heat unless they blitz. Newton has the mobility and strength to avoid blitzes. Palmer has the bigger name wide receiving targets. Larry Fitzgerald has enjoyed a monster comeback season regaining his status as an elite receiver. Carolina, though, has the far superior tight end in Greg Olsen and the more experienced, proven running back in now healthy Jonathan Stewart, who easily outplayed Marshawn Lynch last week in returning from a foot injury. 
The Panthers have won 12 consecutive home games, including defeating the Cardinals in the playoffs last season, 27-16. Arizona was down to third-string Ryan Lindley in that matchup. The Cardinals are 7-1 on the road this season. Only one of those victories, however, was against an opponent that made the playoffs. 
Palmer isn't playing well and the Cardinals' ground attack has produced an average of just 2.1 yards per carry during their last two games. The Cardinals can be overwhelmed at the point of attack especially when their ground attack isn't clicking. 
Arizona also has a weak kicking game. Drew Butler is among the worst punters in the NFL and Chandler Catanzaro missed five extra points during the season. 

These are the No. 1 and No. 2 scoring teams in the NFL. The offenses are healthy, but the defenses aren't. 
Carson Palmer and Cam Newton each had career-best regular seasons. Palmer has a healthy trio of wide receivers that rank among the best in football as a unit. He's going against a Panthers secondary down two of their three best cornerbacks. They also aren't likely to have pass rusher Jared Allen. Arizona has scored 26 or more points in 70 percent of their games. 
Newton accounted for 45 touchdowns with his passing and running. He has a healthy Jonathan Stewart in the backfield and faces an Arizona defense that is weakened by the loss of safety Tyrann Mathieu and linebacker Alex Okafor. Newton has three receiving targets who averaged more than 14 yards per catch, including Greg Olsen, maybe the second-best tight end in football. Only once in their last 15 games have the Panthers failed to score at least 27 points.

Both defenses are very good. The difference - and it's huge - is quarterback. Tom Brady is 38, but remains in the argument for best quarterback in the league. No quarterback threw for more touchdowns. 
Peyton Manning is just a year older than Brady, but he's washed-up done in by multiple neck surgeries and a foot injury that had kept him out of action since Nov. 15 until a lackluster start this past Sunday against the Steelers where he needed a Pittsburgh fumble to put up his lone touchdown. 
Manning is nothing but a glorified game-manager lacking a sterling ground game to fall back on, or set him up to keep pace with Brady. Manning has never been very good in the postseason even in his prime. He is 5-11 in his career versus Brady and 1-5 in the playoffs when the temperature has been under 40 degrees. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven postseason contests.
The Broncos were just 5-4 straight-up and ATS in Manning's nine starts. Manning finished 35th in passer ratings with a horrendous 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
The Patriots have a top-10 defense, including a top-10 run defense. Their key linebackers did get nicked up against the Chiefs this past Saturday, but Bill Belichick always has versatile defenders and is deep at the position if some of his starters can't go. 
Neither Manning, nor Brock Osweiler, are capable of putting up a lot of points. The Broncos rely on their defense. Ben Roethlisberger threw for nearly 340 yards against them with a sore shoulder and no Antonio Brown. Brady is capable of more with a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and healthy Julian Edelman. New England averaged 33 points per game and a 50 percent third down conversion rate with Edelman and only 23 points and a 30 percent third down conversion rate in the seven games Edelman missed with a foot injury.
Edelman is the key to the Patriots' up-tempo, quick-rhythm strike offense that doesn't need a sufficient ground game. The Patriots put up 27 points on the Chiefs defense, which was playing even better than Denver's. New England's offense should be even more well tuned this week with Edelman getting the rust off. The Patriots catch a break with Denver cornerback Chris Harris dealing with a shoulder injury. 
Given the liberal rules that favor offense in this era, Brady has a clear advantage on Denver's defense. Manning is in his dotage, nothing more than a glorified game manager. He won't be able to keep pace. 

Early money has been on the Seahawks. It's a mistake. The Panthers are the better team and are in a much better spot. 
So why is Carolina the better team besides obviously having a superior record? 
Both defenses are strong. I'd actually give a slight edge to Seattle's defense, although it is down from its previous two seasons. It remains very good, but not dominant. 
The Panthers led the league in scoring. This includes scoring 27 points on the Seahawks in their Week 6 victory - at Seattle. Cam Newton is a strong MVP candidate. Marshawn Lynch may be back for Seattle, but he wasn't having a good season. Carolina should also get its best running back, too, with Jonathan Stewart expected to start. 
Seattle's offense showed a lot of troubling characteristics against Minnesota's tough defense last week - such as misfired passes, just 5-of-14 on third down conversions, a time of possession deficit and only putting up 10 points. The Seahawks' lone touchdown was set up by a fluke play when the ball bounced right back to Russell Wilson on a bad snap. Wilson took advantage of the busted play to complete a 35-yard pass. 
Seattle would have lost to the Vikings if not for Blair Walsh's missed 27-yard field goal at the end. The success rate of a field goal from that short distance is 97 percent during the past 10 years. The Seahawks also were unbelievably lucky last season when Green Bay failed to field an on-side kick. 
So much of the Seahawks' mystique is built on luck. Carolina isn't getting enough credit for its 15-1 season, including a 4-0 record SU and ATS versus teams who made the playoffs this season. 
The Panthers are rested and home. They have a big chip on their shoulder feeling they haven't gotten the respect they deserve. They are a rising team that is ready for the next step having made the postseason each of the past two seasons. 
By contrast, Seattle is traveling for the third consecutive week. This is an early start time, too, for the West Coast Seahawks. The victory against the Vikings in frigid conditions takes a toll on the Seahawks. Seattle isn't as good as it has been the previous two seasons. The Seahawks' time is now up. 

First off this isn't Minneapolis in January. The game is in the Arizona desert Saturday night with a weather forecast of about 60 degrees, no rain and very little wind. 
Now the matchup. I see both teams scoring at least 24 points. If that occurs, this game does not go under. 
The Cardinals are the No. 2 scoring team in the NFL averaging 30.6 points per game. They rank No. 1 in total yards and No. 2 in passing yards. Only three times all season have the Cardinals been held to fewer than 22 points in a game. 
The Packers' defense isn't nearly dominant enough to stop Arizona's offense especially given that the Cardinals have had two weeks to game-plan being idle last week and Green Bay is likely to be missing its top cornerback, Sam Shields, a fifth consecutive week. These teams just met less than three weeks ago and Arizona scored 38 points.
Carson Palmer, surrounded by weapons and the aggressive play-calling and schemes of coach Bruce Arians, has never played better putting up MVP-caliber numbers. Larry Fitzgerald is the most physical slot receiver the Packers have faced all season. The Packers don't have a defensive back who can handle him. MIchael Floyd is another tall, physical wide receiver. Both Fitzpatrick and Floyd are 6-foot-3. The Packers struggle against these type of receivers. The Packers also have trouble defending athletes with speed. The Cardinals have this, too, among their weapons with John Brown and running back David Johnson, who also is dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield and in the return game. 
The key in making this over work is Green Bay putting up its share of points. I see that happening. The Packers' offense regained their rhythm and comfortable fast tempo against the Redskins. The parts always were in place. No quarterback is better than Aaron Rodgers. Even when the Packers' offense was struggling, Green Bay still put up 27 or more points in five of its last eight games. 
The Packers know the Cardinals well now from having just played them. It's a huge plus if left tackle David Bakhtiari returns. But even if he doesn't I'm fine with JC Tretter replacing him. Tretter filled-in well for Bakhitari last week after giving up a first-quarter safety. He's helped by the Packers knowing they must play the Cardinals using a quick rhythm style rather than rely on long-developing option routes, which didn't work in the first meeting. 
Rodgers and Co. are helped by the Cardinals missing the emotional leader of their secondary and maybe their best defensive player, safety Tyrann Mathieu, who is second on the team in tackles despite missing the past two games. This week the Cardinals also found out they will be without linebacker Alex Okafor, one of their best run defenders. 
Then there are intangibles. Arians is the most aggressive play-caller the NFL has seen during the past few years. Mike McCarthy isn't going to be conservative either knowing he hurt the Packers big time with his conservative decisions during last season's championship loss to Seattle on the road. 

Now that plus 7's are on the board, I'm pouncing on Clemson, unbeaten this season and winners of 17 in a row. 
Alabama is not the dominant monster team that is perceived by many. That perception was fueled by the Crimson Tide destroying Michigan State last week. Credit to Alabama for playing great in that matchup. But Clemson is nothing like the Spartans. Clemson's strengths directly play against Alabama, unlike Michigan State. 
Alabama played its Game of the Year against Michigan State, fueled by Big Ten revenge after a 42-35 bowl loss to Ohio State last season and having three weeks to prepare for the Spartans. Michigan State doesn't have the offensive talent, nor plays the style of offense, Clemson does. The Spartans, in hindsight, were sitting ducks for Alabama. 
Michigan State's Connor Cook is a dropback quarterback operating a pro-style offense. The Crimson Tide is much more geared to stop this type of offense rather than Clemson's option. The Tigers' Deshaun Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. Unlike Michigan State, Clemson has playmakers at the flanks and it spreads the field. The Crimson Tide are going to encounter problems handling Watson and this type of offense, especially with just one week to prepare. This is especially pertinent in light of Crimson Tide defensive coordinator Kirby Smart shuttling responsibilities after being named Georgia's head coach last month. 
Clemson pushes pace with its up-tempo attack. This keeps Alabama from making its normal substitution patterns thereby reducing its team depth. Look at who Alabama has lost to during the last three years - at home to Mississippi this season- then last season at Mississippi and to Ohio State in the bowl semifinals - also 45-31 to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl in 2013. 
Clemson rolled past the Sooners, 37-17, this past week. Go back to 2012 and you'll find the Crimson Tide losing at home to Texas A&M and Johnny Manziel. The common denominator is these are spread offenses with mobile quarterbacks none of whom is better than Watson, who is light years ahead of Alabama quarterback Jake Coker. 

Clemson has covered in its last four bowl games. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games, while Alabama is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.  

It's a break for Green Bay to draw Washington in the first round of the playoffs. Although they are struggling offensively, the Packers defense has been solid. The Green Bay secondary will get a huge boost, too, if cornerback Sam Shields can play for the first time since suffering a concussion in Week 14.
The Redskins are a nice story winning the NFC East. Kirk Cousins actually had better numbers than Aaron Rodgers. But things need to be kept in perspective. The NFC East was a bad joke this season. The Redskins played only three winning teams - Panthers, Patriots and Jets. They were crushed in all three of those matchups.
Washington lacks Green Bay' long playoff experience and also does not have the speed and talented athletes to exploit the Packers. The Packers have made the postseason seven consecutive seasons and 18 of the last 23 seasons. They know how to step up and deal with pressure. The last time they reached the Super Bowl, which was 2010, they did it as a wild card. The Redskins haven't made the postseason since 2012 when Robert Griffin III was their quarterback. Cousins and the Redskins are totally unproven in the playoffs. Cousins has turnover traits that the Packers defense can exploit and the Washington organization has been dysfunctional ever since Daniel Snyder became its owner. They should not be trusted. Having know they were hosting a playoff game for two weeks only increases the pressure on the Redskins. 
The Packers played the far more difficult schedule playing seven games versus playoff opponents. The Packers won three of those games. Rodgers had a down season statistically, but he still potentially is the best player in the league. Green Bay's offense is much better than it has shown and it's going against a defense that is far easier than other playoff teams. 
Rodgers can take advantage of a Washington secondary that has lost three of its top six defensive backs for the season. In fact, the Redskins are so desperate for secondary help they signed 31-year-old cornerback Cary Williams this past Tuesday. 
It's not a stretch of the imagination at all to project Green Bay to get turned around and for Rodgers and McCarthy - proven winners - to step up and take advantage of a weak division champion that ranks among the bottom 10 in rushing and run defense - yet tries to play a power game - and lacks postseason experience. 

Kansas City is the hottest team in the NFL winning 10 in a row. The Chiefs beat the Texans by a touchdown at Houston in Week 1 and nothing has changed. The Chiefs still are the superior team.
The Chiefs have played the stronger competition being in a much tougher division. They have a balanced offense with a superior quarterback in Alex Smith, who rates an edge on Brian Hoyer. The Chiefs' defense is holding foes to only 14.5 points during their last 12 games and should have Justin Houston back this week. Houston led the NFL in sacks last season.
The Texans are going to be without their best offensive lineman, left tackle Duane Brown. He's out for the season after suffering a torn tendon in his right quad this past Sunday.
The Chiefs have the best turnover ratio in the AFC at plus 14. Their secondary has a 12-to-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio in their last 11 games. 

The Texans are just thrilled to have reached the playoffs courtesy only of being in the worst division. 

Prop Bet (Taken from Westgate)
Over 5 1/2 Sacks
Look for these two teams to exceed 5 1/2 sacks. Kansas City ranked No. 4 in sacks with 47 while the Texans were No. 5 with 45. J.J. Watt led the NFL in sacks this season with 17 1/2. A year ago, Justin Houston led the NFL in sacks. Houston is expected back for the Chiefs this week after missing the last five games with a knee injury. He had 22 sacks last season. Alex Smith was sacked 45 times this season. Only two quarterbacks were sacked more times. Smith is highly mobile, but also highly conservative. He would much rather go down that take a shot on completing a pass. He is the total opposite of a gunslinger. Brian Hoyer isn't as mobile as Smith and won't have his best pass blocker as left tackle Duane Brown was injured last week and is out for the season. 

The Raiders have a history of playing their long-time hated division rival tough and I expect that to be the case again. Oakland has covered seven of the past nine times playing in Kansas City. The teams are 5-5 during their past 10 meetings. Only once in the last eight years have the Chiefs swept the Raiders.

Unlike previous seasons, the Raiders under their first-year coach Jack Del Rio have showed resolve while playing much better on the road. They have a winning away mark and have covered in four of their last five road matchups. Not once have the Raiders lost by more than five points on the road this season.

The Chiefs realize that Denver isn't going to lose to San Diego so they won't be winning the AFC South Division title. Both their game and the Broncos game kick off late so the Chiefs will be distracted doing some scoreboard watching. If the Broncos break out early against the Chargers - and they are double-digit favorites at some books - it wouldn't be surprising if Andy Reid starting resting starters in order to have them fresh for next week's playoffs. 

The Raiders really want to finish 8-8. All of their quotes this week point to that - and those quotes come across to me as sincere. I see the Raiders playing with a lot of energy and emotion. They are fortified with extra rest having played last Thursday. The Chiefs are banged up with their two best edge pass rushers, Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, questionable. 

Oakland led Kansas City by six points in the fourth quarter when they met four weeks ago. But Derek Carr had a meltdown with three turnovers and the Chiefs won by a misleading 34-20 score. Carr has proven himself this season making giant steps going from game manager to dangerous playmaker. I like him far more than Alex Smith. 

The Chiefs are 9-0 in their last nine games, 7-2 ATS. They also are plus 19 in turnover ratio during this time. They are more about precision and takeaways than some dominant opponent. The Raiders can definitely hang with them if not pull the outright upset. 

On paper this seems like a tough game for the Jets going against their old coach Rex Ryan. But the truth of the matter is the Bills have regressed under Ryan and the players aren't responding to him. Ryan's strength is that of a motivator not a tactician. He is far from the popular figure he was in the Jets locker room. 
The Bills have lost four of their past six games. They are missing the playoffs for the 15th straight season, the longest drought in the NFL. 
The Jets are better than Buffalo on both sides of the ball and in must-win mode. Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Marshall are having huge seasons. New York is that rare team that ranks in the top eight both offensively and defensively. 
Buffalo has gone from leading the NFL in sacks a year ago to near the bottom this season courtesy of Ryan down 34 sacks from last season. Buffalo also is without its best running back, LeSean McCoy. 
The Jets underachieved under Ryan. They haven't under Todd Bowles, a superior coach to Ryan. 

New England has been winning with defense not offense. Only once have the Patriots scored more than 28 points during their last eight games. But defensively the Patriots rank in the top eight in fewest points, total yards and rushing yards. New England has held its last three opponents to an average of 14 points during regulation. 
Miami ranks 27th offensively in yards and points. Only once in their last nine games have the Dolphins scored more than 20 points. Ryan Tannehill has not taken a step forward remaining a mediocre quarterback talent with below average weapons. The Patriots shouldn't have problems controlling the Dolphins' pop gun attack. 
The key is if the Dolphins can control New England's offense. Miami is going to be tremendously aided by the Patriots' multiple offensive injuries and Bill Belichick likely to just play vanilla football to not tip his hand before the playoffs. Tom Brady is playing behind a makeshift offensive line. Every original offensive line starter is out or playing hurt. Brady hasn't been sacked this many times since his rookie season. Brady's left tackle, Sebastian Vollmer, won't play because of a knee injury.
The Patriots also are without their best wide receiver, Julian Edelman, and their two best running backs, Deion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount. The Patriots are so desperate for running back help they even brought a clearly-shot Steven Jackson back from retirement. Still, Belichick would like to run the ball a lot in this matchup to keep Brady from getting hurt. 
The Dolphins know their division rival well. Miami actually has won the past two times it has hosted New England. 

Maybe on paper this looks like an even match. But there are several factors working against Arizona State. Add them all up and West Virginia is the clear right choice. 
The Sun Devils last played in November. It has been 35 days since they last were in action. Arizona State is 2-4 in its last six games. The Sun Devils have allowed 449 or more yards during their past five games, including a staggering 680 during their final regular-season game, a 48-46 loss to California. 
On the season, Arizona ranked 97th in scoring defense surrendering 32.7 points per game and 100th in yards per play at 6.07. The Sun Devils' struggling defense is minus injured linebacker Laiu Moeakiola, their key defender. Moeakiola plays what the Sun Devils call the "spur" spot, which is a hybrid position and the most important position in their defensive scheme. Sophomore linebacker DJ Calhoun is replacing Moeakiola. He's comfortable on the weak side, lacking experience at "spur" linebacker. 
West Virginia can take advantage with an offense averaging 33.3 points. The Mountaineers have two strong running backs, a versatile quarterback and a big play wide receiver in Shelton Gibson, who averages 22.5 yards a catch. 
I like the Mountaineers defense better than Arizona State. West Virginia yields 23.2 points a game, which ranked 39th and forced 31 turnovers. Only four teams had more takeaways. West Virginia has given up only nine rushing touchdowns, fifth-stingiest in the nation. The Sun Devils don't have a lot of experience facing a 3-3-5 stack defense and don't have their offensive coordinator, Mike Norvell, who is headed to Memphis. 
Arizona State has failed to cover in six of its last seven bowl games, including not covering the past two years against Texas Tech and Duke. 

Not only do I like fading a Big Ten team against an SEC foe, but Northwestern doesn't have nearly enough offense to hang within double-digits of Tennessee.
Northwestern won some close games versus mediocre Big Ten opponents such as defeating Penn State by two, Purdue by seven and Illinois by 10 during its past four games. But the Wildcats were smashed 38-0 by Michigan and 40-10 by Iowa. The Wildcats were fortunate enough to not have to play against Ohio State and Michigan State. 
The Wildcats have strong defensive statistics, but I wasn't impressed with the offenses they faced to built those numbers. 
Tennessee came on strong to win its last five games. The Volunteers nearly beat Oklahoma and Alabama leading both in the fourth quarter falling to the Sooners in overtime. 
Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs improved from his sophomore season completing nearly 60 percent of his throws for more than 2,100 yards and 15 touchdowns. He also rushed for 623 yards and another nine touchdowns. Dobbs threw multiple touchdown passes to seven different receivers. 
Northwestern lacks Tennessee's explosiveness - and that includes special teams. The Volunteers had six return touchdowns, three each on punts and kickoffs. Evan Berry led the nation in kickoff returns with 38.3 yards per return and three kickoff return touchdowns. 

Clemson has won 16 in a row and buried Oklahoma, 40-6, last season in a bowl game despite missing Deshaun Watson. So I don't comprehend this line. At worst, these two teams are even.

Yes, three players are suspended for Clemson. The only one, though, with some impact is Deon Cain, the Tigers' second leading receiver. He's a talented deep threat, but the Tigers have other weapons. 
Watson may be the best dual threat quarterback in the country. He has a superb running back in Wayne Gallman and talented receivers. The Tigers averaged nearly 40 points on the season - and they did it facing tougher defenses than Oklahoma did squaring off against Florida State, Boston College, North Carolina State and Notre Dame. 
I like Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, too, but statistics are skewed from the Big 12 because it's such an offensive-oriented conference with several weak teams. Clemson has a very strong defense headed by lineman Shaq Lawson, who led the nation with 22 1/2 tackles for losses. 

USC is a team few opponents want to match up against in a bowl game. Wisconsin doesn't have the quarterback and skill level to beat the Trojans, especially when traveling to the West Coast to take on USC in its natural environs of Southern California. 
Big Ten teams aren't equipped to handle Pac-12 passing offenses and upper tier quarterbacks. USC has such a quarterback in Cody Kessler. He completed 67.6 percent of his passes this season. If you combine this season with last year, Kessler has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 67-to-11. 
Wisconsin's strength is its defense. But the Badgers don't have enough secondary depth to stop Kessler and a deep USC receiver group that had 10 players haul in double-digit receptions headed by dynamic sophomore Juju Smith-Schuster. He caught 85 passes for 1,389 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Badgers can't match that because they have a below average quarterback, Joel Stave. He's been picked off six times in his last four games. Mediocre quarterbacking, with the exception of one year or Russell Wilson, is the norm at Wisconsin. The Badgers have always been able to overcome that because of an outstanding ground attack. That hasn't happened this season, though. The Badgers never adequately replaced Melvin Gordon. Wisconsin finished 97th in rushing yards. 
Wisconsin failed to beat a winning team this season. That's telling. USC had no bad losses except to Washington. The Trojans aren't as good as Stanford, Notre Dame and Oregon - all teams they lost to. But the Trojans are better than the Badgers with huge skill position edges at quarterback with Kessler, wide receiver with Smith-Schuster, all around player in Adoree Jackson and even running back with Ronald Jones II.  
USC has never lost to Wisconsin in six previous meetings. The Trojans have covered in nine of their last 12 games versus Big Ten schools. Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS the last six times it has played in neutral site games.  

I've always given credit to Minnesota for being a well-coached feisty team. I like the Gophers - when they are 'dogs not favorites. I'm not a fan of their quarterback, Mitch Leidner. He has just three more touchdown passes than interceptions on the season and completed less than 58 percent of his throws. Central Michigan has the far better quarterback, Cooper Rush, and the superior offense. Only 10 quarterbacks threw for more yards this season than Rush.
Rush threw for multiple touchdown passes in nine of 12 games. He has five players with 33 or more catches. Minnesota has an excellent secondary, but I like Rush especially on the fast track of indoor Ford Field.  
 Central Michigan should have a better following with this game being played in Detroit. Minnesota played two MAC schools and won by three points each time, beating Ohio and Kent State. Both Minnesota and Central Michigan played Kent State. Central Michigan beat Kent State, 27-14, while the Gophers nipped the Golden Flashes, 10-7.
The Chippewas are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games versus the Big Ten and 5-0 versus non-conference foes. 
After Jerry Kill was forced to step down to health issues, the Gophers went 1-4. They finished with only five wins, but earned a bowl bid based on their NCAA Academic Progress Report since not enough teams reached six wins necessary for bowl eligibility. So technically the Gophers don't even deserve to be here. I don't buy them as favorites against the caliber of quarterback they are facing and an opponent as feisty as they are.  

Given Arizona's home field advantage, the line is short here. Arizona ranks with Carolina and New England as one of the three best teams in football. Those three teams are complete teams without a weakness. The Packers are at a "B" level closer to "C" than "A" with their struggling passing attack. The Packers have been outgained on the season. 
Mike McCarthy rarely has led Green Bay to victory in games the Packers weren't expected to win. The Packers are just 17-16 in their last 33 away games with a losing spread mark in those games. This is Green Bay's second West Coast game in a row. 
The Cardinals are 25-4 with Carson Palmer under center. Palmer is backed by three good wide receivers, a reliable offensive line and exciting rookie David Johnson, who already has set a Cardinals first-year mark for most touchdowns in a season with a dozen. The Packers will be without their top cornerback, Sam Shields. 
The Cardinals rank in the top three in points scored, total yards and passing. They are 20-11 (65 percent) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians. The Packers are 3-10-1 ATS as underdogs since 2012.
Green Bay's passing attack is struggling and its ground attack remains inconsistent. Eddie Lacy is having a terrible season. Arizona's defense ranks in the top seven in fewest points allowed, yards given up and rush defense. The Cardinals have held seven of their last eight opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground.
Arizona's pass defense style is tight man press coverage. The Packers' wide receivers have trouble getting separation. Randall Cobb is Green Bay's only receiving playmaker with Jordy Nelson sidelined. So the Packers are going to have problems with this type of defense preferring soft Cover-2 zone types. 
Aaron Rodgers isn't on same page with McCarthy continually being frustrated by the Packers' regression in the passing game. Rodgers also will be without his blindside protector as left tackle David Bakhtiari is out. 

Surprised to see Pittsburgh a double-digit favorite at Baltimore? Don't be. Oh, the Ravens will play hard. John Harbaugh will see to that. But the Ravens simply don't have nearly enough healthy talent to compete against elite level competition.
And the Steelers have become an elite team. They've won five of their last six scoring at least 30 points in every one of those games. The Ravens are down 18 players for the season, including eight starters. Their defense is a shell of what it once was and they have no playmakers left on offense. It's why the Ravens are 2-5 at home, their worst home record in their 26-year history in Baltimore, and why they are on pace to have the fewest takeaways in team history with just 11 right now. 
Neither Jimmy Clausen nor Ryan Mallet nor Matt Schaub has the skill set and weapons to keep pace with Ben Roethlisberger. Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Marcus Wheaton have combined to haul in 19 touchdown passes. DeAngelo Williams is going to be a 1,000-yard rusher replacing Le'Veon Bell. The battered Ravens might even be without cornerback Jimmy Smith, too. 

Neither team has a dominant defense that's for sure. But their offenses are worse. The Colts are averaging 12 points during their last three games. The Dolphins haven't scored more than 20 points in seven of their last eight games. 
Colts quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is 40 and running on fumes so beaten up he's not even able to chew food. There's a possibility he can't finish the game, which would mean the insertion of third-string clipboard holder, Charlie "Checkdown" Whitehurst. 
The Dolphins are averaging 16.3 points in their last eight games. They could be minus two key members of their offensive line in center Mike Pouncey and left tackle Branden Albert. Their replacements are second-year Ulrick John at left tackle and rookie Jamil Douglas at center. 
The Dolphins are on their second offensive coordinator and remain as mixed up as ever. Ryan Tannehill has become more game manager than downfield passer ranking 23rd in the passer rankings. 

On paper it seems hard to go against the Chiefs. They've won eight in a row outscoring their foes by an average of 17 1/2 points during their win streak. 
But my handicap to the Browns is a combination of the Chiefs' talent being overrated - they are more opportunistic than great in my view - and the Browns playing hard to try to save Mike Pettine's job. 
Credit to Andy Reid and the Chiefs for coming back from the dead after a 1-5 start. But take notice of who the Chiefs have recently played: The Chargers, Bills, Raiders, Chargers again and Ravens. 
The Chiefs are using backups at running back - a key position for them - and have a lackluster passing attack. They are winning by forcing turnovers - getting at least one during their past 10 games. 
Sure Cleveland could turn the ball over with Johnny Manziel at quarterback. But he's also capable of making big plays. The Browns, unlike other bottom feeders, have some talent in left tackle Joe Thomas, tight end Gary Barnidge, strong safety Donte Whitner and wide receiver/returner Travis Benjamin. Those players, along with Manizel, all happen to publicly come out and call for Pettine to keep his job. 
That's a nice loyalty gesture. You would think now they would back up their word by playing hard. The Chiefs' pass rush could be down if Tamba Hali can't play due to a broken thumb. Already out is Justin Houston. Those are the Chiefs' two best edge rushers. 

Much is being made of this being coach Frank Beamer's final game for Virginia Tech after 29 years. Truth be told, Beamer should have retired a few years ago because the Hokies have been going downhill. They were just 6-6 this season not clinching a bowl berth until their final regular season game. They are just 16-15 during their last 31 games and 7-15-2 ATS in their last 24 non-conference games. 
Tulsa was one of the most improved teams in the country under first-year head coach Phil Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane are very dangerous offensively under the innovative Montgomery and they've been coming on as the players became more comfortable in his system scoring at least 38 points in all but one of their last six games. 
On the season, the Golden Hurricane average 35.9 points per game. Only 13 teams averaged more yards per game than the Golden Hurricane's 502 yards. They also ranked 11th in passing behind quarterback Dane Evans, who has a top target in Keyarris Garrett. Garrett had the second most receiving yards in the FBS with 1,451. 
I detect that Virginia Tech could be a little tight for this matchup trying to give Beamer a sendoff, while Tulsa will be loose without any pressure enjoying their first bowl game in three years. The Hokies also will be without three suspended seniors - starting linebacker Deon Clarke and two reserve receivers. 

Cincinnati hopes to rebound from a disappointing season with a win here in the Hawaii Bowl. Don't look for that to happen. The matchup, spot, coaching and intangibles all clearly point to San Diego State, which enters this matchup red-hot winning nine in a row while coming within 1 1/2 points of also being 9-0 ATS. 
The Bearcats have regressed going from Brian Kelly to Tommy Tuberville. The Bearcats finished a disappointing third in the weak American Athletic Conference. Their loaded offense couldn't compensate for a terrible defense. Cincinnati lost to five of the six good teams on its schedule falling to Temple as a home favorite, Memphis, BYU, Houston and to South Florida by 38 points just two games ago. Only twice did the Bearcats win on the road and that came by three points against East Carolina on a field goal at the gun and a four-point win against Miami of Ohio when they were laying three touchdowns. 
Tuberville brings no confidence. Not only are the Bearcats traveling five time zones - their previous longest trip was to Provo, Utah where they lost by two touchdowns to BYU - but are 0-2 the past two seasons in bowl games under Tuberville. Cincinnati lost by 14 points as a short favorite last season to Virginia Tech and fell by 22 points to North Carolina two seasons ago as a short 'dog. 
San Diego State is far less likely to be distracted and bothered playing in Hawaii. They've won and covered this year and in 2013 at Hawaii. The Aztecs beat the Warriors, 28-14, in a pick'em game back in October when Hawaii was competitive. Unlike Cincinnati, San Diego State won't be leaving winter weather to travel and their time zone change is three hours shorter.
Most important is the matchup factors favor San Diego State, too. 
The line is shorter than I thought it would be possibly due to senior Maxwell Smart not starting for San Diego State due to an ACL injury he suffered two games ago. I'm expecting Smart to play, but I'm fine, too, if backup redshirt freshman Christian Chapman goes. He led the Aztecs to a 27-24 victory against Air Force in the Mountain West Conference title game passing for more than 200 yards.
The Aztecs aren't about throwing, though. They are about defense and D.J. Pumphrey, one of the top running backs in the country and the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year. He's rushed for 3,421 yards and scored 39 touchdowns the past two years. Cincinnati surrendered more than five yards per run, ranking 92nd in the nation in rush defense. 
San Diego State ranked in the top 10 defensively in fewest points, yards and rushing yards. By contrast, Cincinnati's defense ranked 89th in fewest points and 82nd in total yards. Redshirt freshman Hayden Moore will be making only his third start for Cincinnati. Gunner Kiel, who had started 23 of the Bearcats' last 25 games, won't play due to personal reasons.  
Moore has some excellent receiving targets, but not only is he facing a top defense but one of the more unconventional ones as San Diego State coach Rocky Long employs a unique 3-3-5 scheme. Moore can expect heavy pressure. 
Add it all up and San Diego State is an easy call. 

Some bowl games are going to feature shootouts. Not the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl - and it's not just because this is one of the colder, more weather-vulnerable sites being in Boise, Idaho. 
Akron ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing defense and 17th in total defense. The Zips were fortunate to get some big-time transfers added to an already promising defense headed by senior linebacker Jatavis Brown. He's the MAC Defensive Player of the Year with 108 tackles, 17 1/2 tackles for losses and 10 1/2 sacks. 
Only three opponents scored more than 21 points on the Zips and two of them were Oklahoma and Bowling Green, which feature potent passing attacks something Utah State doesn't possess. The Aggies ranked just 92nd in total offense.
The under has cashed 70 percent of the time during Akron's last 43 games under Terry Bowden. It's clear Akron is a strong under team. 
Utah State is strong defensively, too. The Aggies are 22nd in total defense. Kyler Fackrell led the nation in fumble recoveries. He and Nick Vigil are probably the two best linebackers in the Mountain West Conference. 
The oddsmaker may have unfairly downgraded the Aggies' defense, though, after BYU beat Utah State, 51-28, in the last game of the regular season. The Cougars scored 51 points, but gained only 358 yards. 

Only once in seven games have the Cardinals lost on the road. They have the passing attack and pass defense to easily cover this number against the Eagles and win their eighth consecutive game.
Arizona is first in yards per game and No. 2 in scoring averaging 31.2 points. Carson Palmer has thrown for 31 touchdown passes, second-highest in the league. The Eagles have surrendered 29 touchdown throws, second-most in the league. In their last six games, the Eagles have permitted 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions as injuries make their already ineffective secondary worse. Palmer has a healthy receiving group and should have a clean pocket as the Eagles have only managed one sack or fewer in three of their past four games. 
Palmer can rely, too, on big-play David Johnson as his featured running back. The Eagles have yielded an average of 4.92 yards per carry to running backs during their last seven games. 
Arizona is 24-4 with Palmer under center. The Cardinals also are 19-11 (63%) ATS when favored under Bruce Arians, who has extra prep time this week with the Cardinals having played last Thursday. 
The Eagles need an "A" game to hang in against the Cardinals. They haven't produced one all season. The Eagles' ground attack has turned out to be overrated and is a mess right now. Arizona has held six of its last seven opponents to under 100 yards rushing. 
The Eagles haven't scored more than 23 points since Week 9. They struggle against tight man coverage, which the Cardinals are talented enough to play. The Cardinals rank fifth in the NFL in pass defense. Only six teams surrender fewer points per game than the Cardinals, which hold foes to 19.4 points a game. 

The Packers are playing very good defense and their offense is back in sync with Eddie Lacy running well - like he usually does late in the season - and Mike McCarthy calling plays again. 
Green Bay is better than Oakland on both sides of the ball. The Raiders are improved, but still several tiers below Green Bay. Oakland has played better on the road going 4-3 compared to 2-4 at home. 
Derek Carr is showing signs of hitting the wall. Latavius Murray already has. Aaron Rodgers isn't having an MVP season, but he still has a 28-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 
Timing means a lot in the NFL. The Raiders are catching the Packers at a time when Green Bay has picked up its game. 
The difference between these two teams when playing in Oakland is far closer to a touchdown than a field goal. 

The Vikings are much improved under Mike Zimmer, but they are not an elite team and they are not built to cover margins of more than a field goal - especially against division foes - with a passing attack that ranks 31st. Only once has Teddy Bridgewater thrown for more than one touchdown pass in a game. 
While Zimmer has done an excellent job, so has the coaching staff of the Bears. Since Week 4, Chicago has gone 5-5. The Bears lost two of those games in overtime and the other three by a combined eight points with none of those defeats occurring by more than three points. One of those losses was 23-20 to the Vikings in Week 8 on a Minnesota field goal at the gun.
Adrian Peterson can expect to see a stacked line keying on him. Not only is Bridgewater a bottom tier quarterback - far more game manager than playmaker - but the Bears rank second in pass defense.
The Bears' offensive line has shown improvement and their key wide receivers - Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royals - should be healthy enough to play. Jay Cutler is playing under control thanks to new offensive coordinator Adam Gase. Cutler is an easy target to rip, but I like him far more than Bridgewater. The Bears also now have two good running backs with Jeremy Langford keeping Matt Forte fresh. 
The Vikings will be without linebacker Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith again and possibly nose guard Linval Joseph. Their defense isn't as good without those key defenders. 

Not enough respect is being paid to Carolina's dominant defense with this high of a total. The Panthers rank in the top five in scoring defense, total yards, run defense and pass defense. They also are first in interceptions and third in sacks. 
This is the second-largets Carolina total of the season - and the matchup doesn't merit that. 
The Giants are one-dimensional ranking 29th in rushing yards. They don't have a a decent running back. Neither do the Panthers with Jonathan Stewart. Instead the Panthers are going to go with a three man committee of Mike Tolbert, Foswhitt Whittaker and Cameron Artis-Payne. 
If you discount giving up 52 points on the road to New Orleans on a fast track and in a shootout, the Giants have given up a respectable average of 21.5 points in regulation during their last six games. 
Cam Newton is having an MVP-caliber season. But he doesn't have his lead back and lacks outstanding wide receivers. The Giants' secondary is better with the return from injury of cornerback Prince Amukamara. 
This is a dangerous flat spot, too, for the Panthers. I see them playing a conservative, field-position type of game relying on their outstanding defense rather than take a lot of risks in this tough December road setting. 

Dallas can't win with a quarterback as bad as Matt Cassel under center against a quality opponent such as the Jets. The Cowboys are 1-6 in Cassel's seven starts. All of the losses except one have been by more than three points. 
Dallas can't win outside of its weak NFC East Division. They are 1-7 in non-division games. 
Dallas is bad at home. The Cowboys are 2-8, including losing five in a row, during their last 10 home contests. 
The Jets underachieved the last couple of seasons. A main reason for that was the poor coaching of Rex Ryan. That's changed under Todd Bowles, a much better coach than Ryan. The Jets have playoff talent. Bowles is getting the most out of it.
Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a career season. He's played as well as any quarterback during the last three weeks posting 100-plus ratings in each game during this span with a combined 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

This game has been moved to Sunday night. The Texans are not prime time ready. New England certainly is. It's rare to get the Patriots off a loss. It's near impossible to ever get Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off consecutive losses. The last time that happened was 2002! 
Belichick and Brady are coming off rare bad performances for them. I want them going for me in this spot. Before getting upset by the Eagles this past Sunday, the Patriots were 8-0 straight-up and ATS when coming off a loss, with an average winning margin of 14 points.
The Texans haven't been able to put together a consistent ground attack since losing Arian Foster. New England, however, is far more banged-up. That's a big reason why this line is so low.
Still, no coach is better than Belichick at finding role players to fill in the niches and no quarterback is better than Brady in putting them in position to succeed. I fully expect Danny Amendola, Brandon LaFell, James White and Scott Chandler to play well replacing Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Rob Gronkowski. 
The Texans weren't able to take advantage of Buffalo missing its starting right guard and right tackle last Sunday. The Texans only had one sacks against the Bills, none by J.J. Watt.
This is a rare marquee matchup for the Texans. They have a number of former Patriot coaches and players. But their biggest game of the season actually comes next week when they play the Colts in a matchup that will hold huge implications for the AFC South Division title. 
The Patriots are used to pressure games and performing under the national spotlight. Not so with the Texans. 

The Raiders have actually played better on the road where there is less of a winning expectation. Apparently this, perhaps subconsciously, has removed some of the pressure from their young players.
Oakland has won three away games. The last time the Raiders did that was in 2011. 
Derek Carr is a much better quarterback than Brock Osweiler, who is more game manager than downfield threat. Only two of Carr's nine interceptions have come on the road. Carr also has only been sacked five times on the road compared to 11 at home. He has 26 touchdowns throws with a chance to set the Raiders' franchise record for TD passes in a season. 
Denver is extremely banged-up. Both of the Broncos' running back, C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, are nursing injuries. Denver's offensive line is thinned by injuries and its defense could be missing four starters. 
The Broncos know how to win, but they are not built to cover margins like this. Only three of their 10 victories have come by more than seven points. Denver is averaging just 17.7 points during regulation in its last four games. 
The Raiders held the Broncos to without a touchdown on offense in a 16-10 loss in Week 5. 

The Bengals took advantage of a rusty Ben Roethlisberger when they beat the Steelers, 16-10, in Week 8. Roethlisberger threw three interceptions in his first game back after missing four games because of a knee injury.
Look for Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's offense to play far better this time around. The Steelers actually outgained Cincinnati in that game. Roethlisberger is averaging 383.2 yards passing in his last four games throwing for 10 touchdowns during this span. Antonio Brown is a monster when Big Ben is behind center. He's caught seven touchdown passes in the eight games Roethlisberger has played. 
Making matters worse for the Bengals is their secondary has injuries. Cornerback Adam Jones is not expected to play due to a foot injury. Cincinnati also may be missing cornerback Leon Hall with a back injury and free safety George Iloka with a groin injury. Another cornerback, Dre Kirkpatric, is limited by a knee injury. Jones, Hall and Kirkpatrick are all veteran cornerbacks. If they're limited - or absent - the Bengals are forced to rely on a pair of rookies one being undrafted Troy Hill against one of the top passing offenses in the league. 
The Steelers have only given up three rushing touchdowns all season. I like Roethlisberger far better than Andy Dalton if this one turns into a shootout, which it very well could do. 
The Bengals have been fortunate up to this point with injuries. That luck, though, is running out. Cincinnati has only outgained five of its last 10 opponents. The Bengals are ripe for a fall with a three game division lead on the more desperate 7-5 Steelers. Pittsburgh has a strong history playing at Cincinnati and playing in December. 
The Steelers have won and covered in four of their last five visits to Cincinnati. Pittsburgh also is 8-0 straight-up and ATS in its last eight December games. 

In today's pass-crazy, rules-favoring offense a total of less than 41 should be considered very low. This is especially so inside a fast-track dome, which this matchup takes place in. 
Detroit's offense has picked up both running-wise and in pass-blocking. Matthew Stafford has played much better since Jim Bob Cooter became the new offensive coordinator. Stafford has seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last two games. Detroit is averaging 34 points during the last two weeks. 
The Rams' defense has tailed off with just six sacks in their five games. St. Louis is surrendering an average of 29 points during its last two games. The Rams also suffered a couple of key injuries last week. Already down team sacks leader Robert Quinn for the season, the Rams also could be missing strong safety Tim McDonald and cornerback Janoris Jenkins. 
This total is low because the Rams rank last in passing. Most of the Rams' season passing statistics come from Nick Foles, who has been beyond terrible. But Case Keenum is back this week. Keenum isn't very good either but he can provide a spark. Just about anybody under center would be an upgrade on Foles.
Remember, too, the Rams have one of the best running backs in football in Todd Gurley. Both teams can be dangerous on special teams, too. 

Look for a heavy dose of running between both teams with bad weather in the forecast. Heavy rain and gusting winds are predicted. The Redskins play far worst on the road. Even though they have failed to rush for 100 yards in seven games, the Redskins figure to stay on the ground a lot. That's Chicago's plan, too, given the weather conditions and Washington's below average run defense. The weather conditions are going to make it rough on both kickers, too. 

Chicago is fired-up and angry after blowing a home game to San Francisco this past Sunday. I like the Bears' coaching edge and situation advantage against Washington, which is traveling on a short week following a home loss on Monday night to division rival Dallas. 
The Redskins have been terrible on the road losing the past nine times while going 2-7 ATS. They are 0-5 away this season outscored by 76 points in these matchups for an average losing margin of 15.2 points. 
During the Jay Gruden era, the Redskins are 1-12 on the road, 4-9 ATS. They have lost by 10 or more points in eight of those 12 road contests. 
Kirk Cousins has a 5-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road with a completion rate of less than 62 percent. The Bears rank No. 2 in pass defense.
Not only do I like the Bears' passing game more with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery, but also their ground attack with a two-headed monster of Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford. 
The Redskins are a ground-and-pound team, but they don't run well nor stop the run. The Redskins rank 26th in run defense and 25th in rushing. 

Arizona ranks No. 1 in the NFL in yards per game (419.5) and points (31.8) per game. Carson Palmer is on pace to throw for 4,924 yards and 39 touchdowns. 
The Vikings are going to be missing three of their key defensive players - linebacker Anthony Barr, safety Harrison Smith and nose tackle Linval Joseph. That makes Minnesota especially vulnerable to the Cardinals' high-powered offense. 
Palmer has three excellent wide receiving targets and rookie David Johnson gives the Cardinals a speed element out of the backfield. 
The Vikings were roundly criticized for their poor offensive showing and play-calling in last week's 38-7 loss to Seattle. Expect a lot more of Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater taking shots downfield to loosen up the Cardinals' run defense. 
The Cardinals' defensive statistics look good because they've played the Rams and 49ers the past two weeks holding those offensively-challenged foes to a combined 16 points.
Prior to playing those two teams, though, the Cardinals had surrendered 31 points to the Bengals and 32 points to the Seahawks. 

It's difficult enough being the road team for a Thursday night game. It's especially difficult for the Vikings traveling to the desert following a mentally and physically draining 38-7 home loss to Seattle this past Sunday.
Arizona is 17-4 under Bruce Arians when playing at the University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals have won 14 of their last 16 home games when Carson Palmer has been under center. Palmer has a 38-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in these games. 
Sparked by Palmer, an MVP candidate, the Cardinals rank first in the NFL in yards and points per game. They draw a battered Vikings defense missing three of their key defenders in injured safety Harrison Smith, nose tackle Linval Joseph and linebacker Anthony Barr. That's too much for the Vikings to overcome especially on a short week with long travel involved when their is limited time to make adjustments. 
The Vikings lack the necessary strong passing game to keep up with Palmer and high-powered Cardinals offense.