The Hawkeyes have had this game circled ever since Michigan embarrassed them, 42-3, in the Big 10 Championship Game last December.

Michigan is 4-0. But the Wolverines have played one of the easiest schedules in the country - Colorado State, Hawaii, Connecticut and Maryland. They played all those teams at home, too.

The Wolverines haven't seen a defense anywhere near this elite caliber. Iowa gives up the fewest points per game at 5.8 and the fifth fewest yards per game.

The Hawkeyes have a tremendous record of upsetting top-five ranked teams going 5-1 during the past six instances.

Timing means a lot in the NFL - and the timing sure isn't good for Miami in this Thursday night road game.

It's not just Tua Tagovailoa being questionable with back and ankle injuries.

The Dolphins still could be exhausted from their huge, 21-19, home win against the Bills this past Sunday. The game was played in Miami's scorching September humidity. Miami's defense was on the field for nearly 41 minutes as the Bills offense ran 89 plays.

The Bengals got back on track rolling past the Jets after close losses to the Steelers and Cowboys where they played well below their capabilities. Cincinnati's offensive line, expected to be much improved, gave up two sacks to the Jets after giving up 13 during the first two games.

The oddsmaker has overreacted to no Dak Prescott with this low of a total. 

Cooper Rush is a serviceable backup quarterback. He's not a stiff. He has skill position talent to rely on. Ezekiel Elliott looks much better than he did last season. Tony Pollard is a home run threat and drawing more playing time. The Cowboys also get back Michael Gallup to upgrade their wide receiving corps. The Giants aren't likely to have Leonard Williams, their best defensive lineman. 

The Giants are far more credible on offense under Brian Daboll. New York's offensive line has improved and Saquan Barkley is running the best he has since his rookie season, finally free of injuries. Barkley entered Week 3 leading the NFL in rushing yards.

It doesn't take much in today's NFL, with its rules skewed toward offense, to get above a total less than 40. 

Right now the Broncos aren't very good. They lost to the Seahawks and had to struggle at home to get past the Texans. Russell Wilson hasn't looked any better than he did last season when he had an off-season failing to meet his lofty standards of past seasons. New Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett's decision making has come under serious scrutiny. Discipline has slipped, too, with the Broncos committing 25 penalties.

The 49ers may have caught an unintended break with Trey Lance suffering a season-ending broken ankle. That's bad for Lance and the 49ers long-term. However, short-term they now will have more experienced, reliable and accurate passing with veteran Jimmy Garoppolo. It's easy to knock Garoppolo, who certainly doesn't have Lance's mobility and big-play ability, but San Francisco is 31-14 in his starts. That's a 69 percent winning percentage.

Denver's secondary already has taken a massive hit with safety Justin Simmons out with a thigh injury and Patrick Surtain questionable with a shoulder injury. The Broncos are stepping way up in class after going against the pop-gun attacks of the Seahawks and Texans. It's an added plus for the 49ers if George Kittle is ready to make his season debut as expected He's arguably the best all around tight end in football.

San Francisco has an elite defense. It held the Bears and Seahawks each to fewer than 220 yards. The 49ers know Wilson well from having played him twice each year in the NFC West Division for 10 years. The Broncos haven't meshed yet with their new quarterback by dropping passes, committing way too many penalties and failing to score TD's in the red zone

Emerging skill position talent, above average offensive line and a still-terrible defense make the Lions an attractive Over team. The Lions have sailed well above the total in each of their last four games, including both games this season.

I see that trend continuing against the Vikings, whose offense is unshackled with a coaching switch from old school Mike Zimmer to Kevin O'Connell.

The Lions are the second-highest scoring team in the NFL at 35.5 points. Detroit's already good offensive line gets back center Frank Ragnow. The Vikings have aging and slow cornerbacks. They also are likely to be minus star safety Harrison Smith, who suffered a concussion this past Monday.

The Vikings should feast at home versus a bottom-three Lions defense that is allowing 32.5 points and 425.5 yards per game.

I have no doubt the Colts will be up for this game. They have to be sitting 0-2. But Indy can't compete offensively with the Chiefs. 

Patrick Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill. But this loss has been more than offset with better receiving depth both at wide receiver and at running back along with an improved offensive line. Gus Bradley is the Colts' new defensive coordinator. He's an overrated defensive coordinator, whose style is a conservative Cover 3 defense. Mahomes picks apart this style of coverage. He's thrown for 966 yards with a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past three times he's gone against a Bradley defense. 

Matt Ryan can't keep up with this. Ryan isn't Tom Brady. He's an old 37. Aside from Jonathan Taylor, Ryan has limited weaponry. He's looked terrible so far. Ryan's been sacked seven times, thrown four interceptions and fumbled five times in his two starts with Indy. 

The Chiefs are on an extra rest, too, having played their Week 2 game on a Thursday. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches with extra prep time. 

I've been very impressed with Jalen Hurts this season. But Carson Wentz hasn't been bad either. Wentz is tied for the TD passing lead with seven and ranks No. 2 in passing yards with 650. He's the Commanders' best quarterback in at least four years.

Washington has set Wentz up for success with a sturdy offensive line and four underrated receiving targets - Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas.

The Commanders' defense isn't likely to reach their top-five status of 2020, but it should be better than last season.

But a big key here is the spot. The Eagles are off an impressive Monday night beatdown of the Vikings. Now they're traveling on a short week while laying a touchdown against a division rival.

Philadelphia is not a good road team either from a point spread perspective going 5-12 ATS in its past 17 away contests. The Eagles also have failed to cover in 14 of their last 18 September games. The underdog in this series is 3-0-1 ATS during the last four meetings.

The Bengals have yet to play well. Still, they could be 2-0. They lost to the Cowboys on a 50-yard field goal as time expired and nearly beat the Steelers in overtime despite a minus-5 turnover ratio. Neither the Cowboys, nor Steelers, are very good right now.

But the Jets are bottom tier. So not only are the Bengals stepping down in class, but the spot sets up well for them. Cincinnati already is in must-win mode at risk of falling 0-3. The Jets are in a rare fat-and-happy mood. They still might be riding Cloud 9 after their miracle comeback against the Browns last Sunday after being down 13 points with less than two minutes left. The last time a comeback like that was pulled off was 21 years ago.

Don't be fooled, though. Joe Flacco still is Joe Flacco. He's an immobile sloth who is washed-up.

The Super Bowl runner-up Bengals are at least two levels higher than the Jets. Joe Burrow should have the rust off now. Tee Higgins is expected to play joining superstar Ja'Marr Chase. Cincinnati's revamped offensive line is due to play much better against a weak Jets defense.

After six years of avoiding Southern Cal because Clay Helton was its coach, it's safe again to back the Trojans. Their new coach, offensive guru Lincoln Riley, has turned around the Trojans. Riley brought QB Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma. Williams is one of the top QB's in the country. He's thrown for 874 yards and eight TD's this season for the 3-0 Trojans. Williams' top target is Jordan Addison, one of the best wide receivers in the nation.

Oregon State also is 3-0. The Beavers are getting strong QB play, too, from Chase Nolan. He ranks 13th in passer ratings.

But there's a class and athlete difference between these two schools. Helton couldn't take advantage of that. The Beavers upset USC as a double-digit road 'dog last season. That was Oregon State's first win in Los Angeles in 61 years. So the Trojans also have revenge motivation to go with an edge in athleticism along with an elite coach and quarterback.

The Trojans have taken much better care of the ball under Riley, not nearly as careless. They are plus 10 in takeaways/giveaways. That's the best ratio in the nation. USC has yet to turn the ball over.

This is the lowest total Houston has had this season - and it's not justified. 

Rice has bounced back from a 66-14 opening loss to USC, to roll past McNeese State, 52-10, and then upset Louisiana Lafayette, 33-21, last week. That marked the seventh straight time the Owls have gone above the total. 

TJ McMahon has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for Rice for 642 yards and seven TD's through these first three games. Houston ranks 118th in total defense. The Cougars have this low defensive ranking despite not having faced a top-30 offense. 

The 1-2 Cougars are frustrated having lost to Texas Tech in double overtime and then getting upset by Kansas, 48-30, during their past two games. The Cougars have a high-powered attack led by QB Clayton Tune, who has completed close to 63 percent of his throws for 744 yards and five TD's. He has one of the better receivers in the country, Nathaniel Dell. Houston scored 44 points against Rice last season. 

The Over has cashed in five of Houston's last six games. 

The competition hasn't been good. Still, Mississippi has held its first three opponents to an average of 4.3 points after shutting out Georgia Tech last week. So I find this total too high.

Tulsa is No. 1 in the country in passing with Davis Brin. But the Golden Hurricane are going against an SEC defense that is playing great. The Rebels are averaging more than four sacks a game. Tulsa has given up 10 sacks in three games against inferior competition.

Mississippi has run the ball nearly 65 percent of the time. The Rebels will look to pound the ball against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have had trouble stopping the run. But running the ball is good for the Under especially with a total in this high range.

The combination of being run-oriented and playing outstanding defense has resulted in Ole Miss going Under in 10 of its last 11 games.

San Diego State went 12-2 last season. The Aztecs lost some key players, but they shouldn't be a home underdog to Toledo.

The Rockets are 2-1, but look at who they've played. Toledo's victories have been against Long Island, 37-0, and UMass, 55-10. Those victories padded their team statistics. When Toledo stepped way up in class, the Rockets were clobbered, 77-21, at Ohio State.

The Aztecs are 1-2 but have played stronger competition. Their losses were to Pac-12 teams, Arizona and powerful Utah.

This total may look high on the surface, but it's not when these two teams are involved. There were 85 and 86 points scored in North Texas' last two games. There were 76 points produced in Memphis' last game. 

Both teams are well above average offensively and terrible defensively. Each also ranks in the top 25 in fastest tempo. That's a recipe for Over.

North Texas ranks 126th defensively in yards giving up 502.8 per game. The Mean Green allow 36.5 points a game, which rates 115th. Memphis QB Seth Hennigan and his bevy of weapons can easily exploit that.

The Tigers are 99th in scoring defense permitting 31.3 points a game. They rank 111th in pass defense. North Texas ranks 33rd in offensive yards per game. 

Points especially matter here. That's usually the case with a total Under 40.

I'll accept this many in this division matchup. The Steelers have flaws, yes. But the Browns can't be trusted - nor should they be - in this point spread range.

As bad as Mitch Trubisky is, I'll take him above Jacoby Brissett.

The Steelers are giving up 18.5 points per game, which includes an overtime period against the Bengals. The Browns rank 26th in defensive scoring allowing 27.5 points per game.

The short week may work against the Browns. They still could be reeling from blowing a 13-point lead with 1:55 left in a shocking, 31-30, home loss to the Jets this past Sunday.

Najee Harris is off to a slow start. Harris shredded the Browns for 279 rushing yards last season helping Pittsburgh defeat Cleveland twice. If Harris can get back on pace that would relieve pressure on Trubisky, who has much better receiving targets than Brissett has. Harris catches a break with Browns defensive end Jadeveon Clowney ruled out with an ankle injury.

The Steelers have covered five of the last six in the series. Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.

Mike Tomlin gets a strong checkmark in the coaching department against Kevin Stefanski. The Steelers have covered 63 percent of the time when getting points during the Tomlin era.

Both teams look improved. But there's a class difference in the trenches that make the Eagles the superior team. I also like Jalen Hurts better than Kirk Cousins. Philadelphia has home field advantage, too. 

Hurts is close to being a top-10 quarterback - if he isn't already - given his mobility and addition of A.J. Brown to go with two speedy running backs, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, one of the better tight ends in the league. The Eagles may have the best offensive line in football. 

The Vikings have Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook to prop up glorified game manager Cousins. Minnesota's offensive line, though, is not nearly the caliber of the Eagles' offensive line.

The Eagles also upgraded their defense, drafting stud defensive tackle Jordan Davis and signing Haason Reddick, James Bradberry and Kyzir White. The Lions had trouble running last week when Davis was on the field. Reddick is one of the top pass rushers and Bradberry an elite cornerback. 

The Packers suffered a very frustrating loss to the Vikings opening week. Fortunately for them their favorite patsy is up next - the Bears. It's true Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears. Green Bay has defeated Chicago six consecutive times and 12 of the last 14 times at Lambeau Field.

Rodgers has accounted for 15 TD's in the Packers' last four games against Chicago with a 141.5 passer rating. Unlike past victories, though, the Packers will dominate the Bears in the trenches and with a strong 1-2 running/catching punch of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Rodgers should have Allen Lazard back as his No. 1 wide receiver. He'll also be looking to throw to reliable tight end Robert Tonyan, who he has excellent chemistry with.

Green Bay's defensive line is one of the best in the NFL. The Bears, on the other hand, may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Chicago's inexperienced tackles Braxton Jones and Larry Borom are no match for Kenny Clark, emerging Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. This is the biggest mismatch between defensive line and offensive line in all of the Week 2 matchups.

The Bears' upset of the 49ers last week came because Justin Fields threw a 51-yard TD pass on a busted play when Chicago was trailing 10-0. That got the Bears going and ignited them. The 49ers were flat. Trey Lance is inexperienced. Rodgers is not. Rodgers has turned the ball over only once the last six times he's faced the Bears.

The Packers have won 13 straight regular-season home games. This isn't the playoffs, the Packers won't choke here.

Stop worrying about Trey Lance. He'll be fine playing at home without having to deal with a hostile Chicago crowd playing in monsoon-type conditions. He has a solid offensive line, an ace play-caller in Kyle Shanahan and a real weapon with versatile Deebo Samuel. It's an added bonus if George Kittle can play.

Instead fixate on Seattle's situation. The Seahawks are off a huge home Monday night upset win of Denver and Russell Wilson. Even playing their division rivals, the Seahawks are in a dreadful spot traveling on a short week following that emotional victory.

The Seahawks are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a victory - and that was with Wilson. Now their quarterback is Geno Smith. One game doesn't change the fact that Smith is a game-manager with a propensity for turnovers.

Smith isn't helped playing behind one of the worst and most inexperienced offensive lines in the league. The 49ers hold a monster edge in the trenches with their defensive line. The Seahawks were able to protect their two rookie offensive tackles by throwing only 17 times against the Broncos. That's not likely to happen again. Nick Bosa is right there with Aaron Donald as the most disruptive defensive lineman in the NFC.

The 49ers are going to be up for this game after blowing a 10-0 lead against the Bears. They will play with urgency. San Francisco has covered its last four home contests.

Lance's task is made easier by the Seahawks losing their best defensive and most versatile player, safety Jamal Adams.

Despite being plus 5 in turnover ratio, the Steelers needed overtime to get past the Bengals and a rusty Joe Burrow. And the only reason the Steelers even managed to win that game was because the Bengals lost their deep snapper in the second half, which caused stud kicker Evan McPherson to get an extra point blocked and miss an easy field goal.

The Steelers did lose T.J. Watt in that game. Watt is the NFL's reigning defensive player of the year, a difference-maker.

The Patriots are a work-in-progress, too. But at 0-1, I see them bouncing back to beat the Steelers. I trust Bill Belichick in this spot. He easily can put together a game plan against Mitch Trubisky, a bad Steelers offensive line and banged-up workhorse running back Najee Harris, who is dealing with a foot injury.

The Steelers were forced to roll out on nearly every pass play because their offensive line can't pass block. Trubisky missed a number of throws like he's done in past performances. The Patriots had three sacks in their loss to the Dolphins. New England held Miami to 13 points on offense as one Dolphins touchdown came on defense.

Pittsburgh has failed to cover eight of the last 10 times following a point spread cover.

Carson Wentz lit up a bad Jacksonville defense last Sunday. He's capable of doing that given the underrated receiving weapons he has to go with Terry McLaurin in Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, a healthy Logan Thomas and both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic out of the backfield.

The Lions' defense is as bad as Jacksonville's defense, if not worse. Detroit is giving up an average of 39.6 points in its last three games going back to last season.

Detroit has firepower, though. Jared Goff plays his best when he's home on a fast indoor track and the conditions are pristine. That's the case here.

The Commanders yielded 22 points to the inefficient Jaguars last week, who continually made mistakes on offense. The Commanders didn't really stop the Jaguars. The Jaguars stopped themselves. Washington remains without its best interior defensive player with Chase Young out.

These teams have as many defensive stars as they do offensive stars. It's the offensive stars and offensive linemen, though, that are the banged-up parts of these teams, though.

The Buccaneers traditionally struggle against New Orleans. The last time these teams met, the Saints shut out the Buccaneers, 9-0. Tampa Bay is 0-4 in its last four regular-season meetings against New Orleans. Tom Brady turned the ball over 10 times and was sacked 13 times during these four games.

Brady could be in for another long day as the Buccaneers have cluster injury problems in the offensive line and wide receiver. Every one of Tampa Bay's wideouts is dealing with some sort of injury. Chris Godwin is unlikely to play. The Bucs are forced to start two inexperienced offensive line starters, too, because of injuries. Right tackle Tristan Wirfs is Tampa Bay's only reliable offensive lineman.

The Saints have offensive line issues, too. Their offensive line has regressed because of injuries and defections. Alvin Kamara also is dealing with sore ribs.

Both teams have defensive coaches now as their head coach. The Saints go from Sean Payton to Dennis Allen, who was either defensive coordinator or interim head coach during the past four games between the two teams, while Todd Bowles is the Buccaneers head coach replacing Bruce Arians. Payton and Arians were each well-respected for their offensive acumen. Allen and Bowles are sharp, too, - but on the defensive side.

This game is all about offense. Neither team has much defensively. There were a whopping 105 points scored in last year's game.

Memphis has the passing attack and speed to score at will against a vulnerable Arkansas State secondary. The Tigers scored 55 points and produced 680 yards of offense in beating the Red Wolves, 55-50, last season.

Arkansas State has enough offense to contribute to this total going Over.

This is a great situational play to fade Washington State. The Cougars are coming off a monster road upset of Wisconsin. Up next for the Cougars is a much bigger game, their Pac-12 opener at home against Oregon.

You couldn't fault the Cougars if they overlook and take for granted Colorado State. The Rams have looked terrible in their two games, getting blown out by Michigan and getting upset at home by Middle Tennessee State.

Improvement should be forthcoming for the Rams under new coach Jay Norvell. They have a talented freshman QB, Clay Millen, and are better than they have looked. Colorado State was tabbed to finish in the top-five in the Mountain West Conference before the season began. So there is talent there.

Washington State is not some great team just because it stunned Wisconsin. The Cougars struggled at home to get past Idaho, 24-17, the week before playing Wisconsin as a four-touchdown favorite. They were projected to be a middle-of-the-road Pac-12 team. The Cougars have covered only two of their last nine non-conference games even with that victory against the Badgers.

Georgia Tech isn't explosive enough to trade points with Mississippi ranking 124th in passing. The Yellow Jackets are back to trying to control the ball via their ground game. Georgia Tech has played decent run defense, though, and the Rebels apparently aren't fully sold yet on USC transfer QB Jaxson Dart.

So I'm expecting more running plays than perceived, which is good for an Under with a total in this high range. Mississippi does have a pair of good running backs in Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans. The strength of Georgia Tech, though, is a defensive line that in two games versus Clemson and Western Carolina has recorded seven sacks and 15 tackles for losses.

Note that Georgia Tech plays its home games on grass. Mississippi is a turf team. The Rebels have gone Under eight of the last nine times when playing on grass.

There are two ways of looking at Georgia's 49-3 thrashing of Oregon in Atlanta two weeks ago. Either the defending national champion and top-ranked Bulldogs are that good, or Oregon isn't nearly as dangerous as cracked up to be. I go with the first.

Look for the Ducks to get redemption on national TV in the confines of Autzen Stadium where they have won 20 straight and 29 consecutive non-conference games.

BYU is ranked 12th in the nation following its exciting 26-20 overtime home win against Baylor last Saturday. But the Cougars are nowhere near the level of Georgia. They also are likely to be without their two best wide receivers again, Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua.

Oregon is tough in the trenches - one of the few schools to return all five of its starting offensive linemen - and has physical linebackers. BYU averaged only 2.4 yards rushing against Baylor.

But the Ducks' major strengths are speed and skill position depth. These are major edges against BYU and will prove the difference. Oregon got some of its confidence back rolling past Eastern Washington - a decent FCS school - 70-14, covering easily as 27-point home 'dogs last week.

Oregon QB Bo Nix always has been better at home where he has a 28-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to just 12-to-12 on the road. Nix should have ample time to spot his speedy downfield targets given the experience of his offensive line.

There's a false perception surrounding Virginia. Just because the Cavaliers have a decent QB, Brennan Armstrong, doesn't mean they have a good offense. The Cavaliers are averaging 18.5 points during their first two games. They have a new offensive philosophy of grinding the ball on the ground instead of letting Armstrong make plays through the air. Some of this strategy is caused by Virginia lacking playmakers around Armstrong and having a very bad offensive line.

Old Dominion is averaging 20.5 points in its first two games. The Monarchs got thrown a curve when Dave Patenaude, their offensive coordinator last season, resigned just weeks before the start of the season. The Monarchs don't make many big plays on offense. Their run defense, though, is decent. Old Dominion held opposing teams to 134.2 rushing yards per game while giving up 12 rushing TD's last year.

The Under has cashed in seven of Virginia's last eight home games. The Under also has cashed seven of the past 10 times when Old Dominion has met a non-conference foe.

Yes, the Chiefs look great again. But the Chargers are right up with them as a double-digit win team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. The Chargers traveling on a short week is mitigated by this being an early-season division game so the fatigue factor is lessened and the team has familiarity with the opponent.

The point spread should not be this high. It's partly due to an overreaction from the Chiefs smashing the Cardinals opening week. The Cardinals, though, are a bad and banged-up team right now.

The Chargers can match the Chiefs' talent level. Justin Herbert, like Patrick Mahomes, is a top-five quarterback. The Chargers have by far the best running back in Austin Ekeler and the better pass rush with Khalil Mack making an immediate impact last week in tandem with another premier pass rusher, Joey Bosa. Los Angeles also is strong in the defensive backfield and in the offensive line.

Really the Chargers' only weaknesses are stopping the run and special teams. But the Chiefs don't beat teams on the ground and it's their kicker, Harrison Butker, who is out.

The Chargers have fared well recently when playing in Kansas City going 3-0-1 ATS during their last four visits. The Chargers have won there each of the last two seasons. No shock at all if they make it three straight road victories against the Chiefs.

Huge motivation for both teams in this Monday night Russell Wilson Bowl. But the pressure is on Denver as road chalk. Expectations aren't nearly as high on the Seahawks.

Seattle has a strong home field advantage. The crowd will be up for this matchup. Wilson is several rungs higher than Geno Smith. But Smith has weapons with D.K. Metcalf. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant. Rashad Penny is healthy so Smith has a ground attack to rely upon, too.

I find the Broncos to be overrated. Wilson is on the downside of his career. He's not quite as accurate as before and he's less of a danger to run. Wilson didn't get any timing down with his new team during preseason. So the Seahawks catch the Broncos at a good time.

The Seahawks are 19-8-1 ATS as a home underdog during the Pete Carroll era. The Seahawks have covered 16 of the last 23 times they've been a 'dog. Smith, for all the criticism, is 6-3 ATS as a home 'dog when starting.

The Colts have failed to cover in their last seven season-openers. Expect that streak to continue. Division underdogs in Week 1 traditionally fare well. That should be the case here especially given Indy's history. Going back to 2014, the Colts are 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS opening week. This includes an 0-4 SU and ATS mark under Frank Reich.

Indy didn't look good during preseason. The Colts are making the transition to a new QB - Matt Ryan. And his best days are behind him. Ryan also has a below average wide receiving corps with Michael Pittman the only reliable wideout. The Colts also are minus a couple of key defensive pieces. Star linebacker Darius Leonard is hurt and Matt Eberflus, their ace defensive coordinator, is gone, taking over as the Bears' head coach.

The Texans aren't the worst team in the NFL. They actually are better than perceived on the offensive line, quarterback where Davis Mills flashed last season and at running back where promising Dameon Pierce has taken the No. 1 role. Pep Hamilton is one of the more underrated offensive coordinators. The Texans held their last four opponents to an average of 24 points, a below average figure but not disastrous. Houston went 3-0 in preseason while holding their opponents to an average of 11 points a game.

The Texans won't lack motivation in Love Smith's debut as their head coach. The Colts swept the Texans last season by a combined score of 62-3. Indy hadn't defeated the Texans by more than a touchdown during the previous six meetings before last year.

Later in the season this point spread will be considered a gift to the 49ers. I already consider it way off. The 49ers are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Bears have the worst talent in the league.

Trey Lance and Justin Fields are similar. Both are in their second NFL-season. Both have tremendous mobility and big arms. But Lance is surrounded by superior talent both offensively and defensively.

The Bears had a minus-96 point differential last season. They could be even worse this year. Fields is inexperienced and not accurate. But he's not even among the many major problems the Bears have, which include perhaps the worst offensive line in the league, multiple holes on defense and a well-below average pass receiving group.

Lance won't be asked to do too much because the 49ers should have no problem pounding the Bears on the ground thus setting up Lance to pick his passing spots. San Francisco was seventh in rushing last season. The Bears ranked in the bottom-10 in run defense.

This is a terrible matchup. But it sets up a winning play on the Under. 

New Mexico State has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Aggies have put up 12 points total against Nevada-Reno and Minnesota. They had less than 100 yards total offense against the Gophers.

UTEP hasn't broken the 25-point barrier in eight of its last nine games. The Miners have scored 13 points in each of their two games against North Texas and Oklahoma. New Mexico State's coach Jerry Kill is well known for his slow pace. He completely plays for field position. UTEP's defensive strength is run defense.

The Miners also prefer to play slow. This total is low, but not low enough.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover put this total out shortly after the game came on the board. He made it his Non-Conference Total of the Year based on tremendous line value and a strong handicap. Within 24 hours, though, the total had been bet so far up that Stephen took the game down because the line value had been lost. However, the handicap still holds.)

Two bad defenses against fast-paced offenses. That's a winning combination for an Over in this matchup between Florida International and Texas State. 

How bad is Florida International? The Panthers had to go overtime to nip Bryant, a bad FCS program, 38-37. Bryant had eight plays of at least 20 yards against the Panthers. The Panthers are in total rebuild mode under new coach Mike MacIntyre.

A key takeaway from that game was the Panthers taking less than 20 seconds between running plays. That's a tremendously fast pace. 

Texas State is up-tempo, too. The Bobcats found themselves a good QB in Layne Hatcher, who was the Freshman of the Year in the Sun Belt Conference at Arkansas State before transferring to Texas State. The Bobcats' problem is once again defense. They surrendered 38 points to Nevada last week. The Wolf Pack lost all of their skill position stars from last season and managed only 23 points against New Mexico State in their first game. 

Virginia is going to find it much tougher going against Illinois after opening with an easy win against Richmond. The Illini have a tough defense especially against the run. Neither Wyoming nor Indiana could effectively run on the Illini. 

The Illini are a ground-and-pound team. They have an excellent running back in Chase Brown. But I'm not nearly so enamored of their QB, Tommy Devito. 

Virginia has a much better QB in Brennan Armstrong. However, the Cavaliers lost each of their five starting offensive linemen from last season. So an early season road game - their first of the year - against a stout Illinois front four is not ideal. 

Don't be fooled by the Week 1 outcomes when accessing these two teams in this matchup.

South Alabama rolled past Nicholls State, an FCS school, 48-7, last week while Central Michigan lost 58-44 to Oklahoma State. 

The Jaguars are a middle-of-the-road Sun Belt Conference team. They have failed to cover in their last six road games. 

Central Michigan covered against Oklahoma State, who is ranked 11th in the country. Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson completed 36 of 49 passes for 424 yards and four TD's with no interceptions against the Cowboys. 

The Chippewas came on strong last season winning seven of their last nine games, including upsetting Washington State in a bowl game. They are on a 6-0 covering run. 

So give me a solid MAC team against this Sun Belt foe. 

The David Cutcliffe era is finished at Duke. It's replaced by defensive-minded Mike Elko. The Blue Devils looked sharp defensively in Elko's head coaching debut shutting out Temple, 30-0, last week. Duke held the Owls to 179 total yards and 12 first downs. Another takeaway from that game was the Blue Devils' conservative offensive style scoring just six points in the second half after building a 24-0 halftime lead.

Now the Blue Devils meet a physical Big Ten defense in Northwestern. The Wildcats have had extra time to prepare having last played in Dublin, Ireland on Aug. 27, beating Nebraska, 31-28, in that game.

Duke hosted Northwestern last year and won, 30-23. Now it's Northwestern's turn to host. The Wildcats are a strong Under team at home where the low side has cashed 72 percent of the time during their last 75 home games.

I'm down on Northwestern QB Ryan Hilinski and the rest of the Wildcats' skill position players rating them among the worst in the Big Ten.

Louisville and its quarterback, Malik Cunningham, are not who we thought they would be. The Cardinals are much worse than imagined and Cunningham, hindered by a bad offensive line and devoid of talented wide receivers, shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath with his Louisville predecessor, Lamar Jackson.

The Cardinals were buried, 31-7, by underdog Syracuse in their opener last Saturday. The Orange have an excellent running back, but little else offensively. Yet they produced 449 yards of offense against Louisville with Orange QB Garrett Shrader racking up 332 yards of offense with his arm and legs. The Cardinals gave up an average of more than 400 yards per game last season and don't appear improved.

Now Louisville has to go back on the road to face a better QB in Central Florida's John Rhys Plumlee, a transfer from Mississippi. Plumlee rolled up 407 yards of offense in leading the Knights to a 56-10 win against South Carolina State in their opener eight days ago. Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 road games.

Central Florida's defensive strength is its secondary. So I don't see the overrated Cunningham faring much better while the Knights behind Plumlee can take advantage of the Cardinals' porous defense.

The total is large here, but not big enough given the matchup. 

Buffalo's defense rates among the best going by last year's statistics. Truth be told, though, it's not as good as it's ranking, especially with star cornerback Tre'Davious White out with a knee injury. The Bills fatten their defensive numbers by steamrolling easy competition. Buffalo played only two playoff teams during the regular season - the Patriots and Chiefs before they got rolling. 

The Bills are really going to miss White in trying to deal with Cooper Kupp, who had maybe the finest receiving season in NFL history with 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Rams upgraded their No. 2 wideout position, too, signing Allen Robinson. Also Cam Akers, LA's most talented running back, has proclaimed himself healthy. The Rams finished in the top-nine in scoring and yards last season. They should do even better this season. 

I'm more sold on the Bills' offense compared to their defense. Buffalo's passing attack is a fine oiled machine right now. Josh Allen is the No. 1 fantasy quarterback. Buffalo scored the third-most points in the NFL last season. The Bills could be even more dangerous with the emergence of speedster Isaiah McKenzie in the slot and the pass-catching talents out of the backfield of rookie James Cook to go with elite wideout Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis and tight end Dawson Knox. 

The Rams may have the top cornerback in the league, Jalen Ramsey. But their strength is star power not depth. They don't have enough quality players in the secondary to stay up with all of Allen's targets. Allen also neutralizes Aaron Donald because of his tremendous mobility. The two most explosive offenses the Rams faced during their last 11 games were the Packers and Buccaneers. Green Bay scored 36 points. Tampa Bay produced 27 points. 

Another plus for the Over is the game being played on a fast track at SoFi Stadium, which has artificial turf. This is the first game of the season. It's nationally televised. The league wants points to be scored that's why rules have been skewed to favor offense. I can't imagine the NFL wants its opening showcase game to be littered with a lot of offensive holding penalties either. 

This is far more of a mismatch than this point spread indicates. Louisville has defeated Syracuse the past three times by an average of 30 points, including out-scoring the Orange, 71-3, during the last two meetings.

Louisville owns a monster edge at QB with Malik Cunningham, the top rushing QB in the ACC. Cunningham is protected by a very underrated offensive line.

Syracuse is forced to be one-dimensional on the ground with Sean Tucker because its QB, Garret Shrader, is terrible. Shrader is very inaccurate and he's not helped by a weak group of receivers. Tucker is excellent, but the Cardinals will be stacking the line against him.

The Orange haven't been able to turn the corner under Dino Babers with just 11 victories during the past three years.

These are two-high scoring teams with plenty of returning firepower.

Houston averaged nearly 36 points a game last season. Back for the Cougars are QB Clayton Tune, who completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 3,544 yards and threw 30 TD's, and his leading receiver, Nathaniel Dell. 

Texas San Antonio averaged 36.9 points last season and return QB Frank Harris, who completed 66.1 percent of his throws for 3,177 yards with 27 TD passes. He also rushed for 566 yards and had six TD's on the ground. He faces a Cougars secondary that lost their two best cornerbacks. 

The Roadrunners also have back seven other offensive starters, including their top four receivers and four offensive linemen. Their losses were on defense where only five starters are back. 

Yes Georgia lost a ton of talent from its defense. That defense gave up a modern-day record 6.9 points per game. The Bulldogs, though, just reload. Don't kid yourself, Georgia's defense still is dominant. 

Dan Lanning was Georgia's co-defensive coordinator the past three years. Now he happens to be the head coach of Oregon. So he knows the Bulldogs well. Oregon has some outstanding defensive talent, too. 

Neither team's quarterback is dynamic. Georgia's Stetson Bennett is steady rather than spectacular while Oregon QB Bo Nix did nothing as a three-year starter at Auburn. The Bulldogs are familiar with Nix, too. 

The Ducks are learning a new offense and Georgia plays at a slow tempo. These are two more pluses for the Under. 

An up-tempo, fast-pace style featuring exciting playmakers and vulnerable defenses should result in more than enough points to get this Over the total.

Let's begin with Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are going to play faster under new coach Sonny Cumbie, who loves to pass. The Bulldogs should score their share of points against a vulnerable Missouri defense that has plenty of questions in its secondary. Louisiana Tech's offensive strengths is its passing attack and a much improved offensive line.

Brady Cook won Missouri's starting QB position. He's well versed in the Tigers' attack and has some outstanding wide receiving weapons. The Tigers shouldn't encounter much resistance from a weak Louisiana Tech defense that ranked 106th in total defense and 114th in scoring defense giving up 34 points per game last year.

Jerry Kill is New Mexico State's new head coach. We know Kill's style - run the ball, take time off the clock and play for field position. Kill inherits an inexperienced offense full of new starters.

Nevada's new coach, Ken Wilson, holds the same cards with his offense - just about all new players. The Wolf Pack lost all of their talented skill position players from last year. Wilson is more run-oriented, too, than the man he replaced, Jay Norvell. Wilson also is dealing with an inexperienced offensive line.

New Mexico State returns eight defensive starters. The Aggies have decent linebackers. Given the new makeup of these teams with run-oriented coaches, I see fewer points being produced than the oddsmaker envisioned.

Charlotte and Florida Atlantic are a pair of middle-of-the-road Conference USA teams whose offenses should be ahead of their defenses for this opener. 

Charlotte has one of the better QB's in the conference, Chris Reynolds. He's one of eight returning offensive starters for the 49ers. Reynolds is the school's all-time passing leader with 7,726 yards. He set school records with 2,684 passing yards and 26 TD throws last season. Florida Atlantic is breaking in new cornerbacks and has an unproven pass rush. 

The Owls scored 38 points on Charlotte in last year's game. They have a dual threat QB in N'Kosi Perry. The Owls have back their two top receivers, LaJohntay Wester and Je'Quan Burton. Johnny Ford gives Florida Atlantic the best running back on the field. 

Illinois' defense showed great improvement last year holding opponents to 21.9 points per game after giving up 34.9 points a game in 2020. The Illini ranked 31st in scoring defense - down from 97th of two seasons ago - while holding nine of their 12 opponents below their season scoring average. 

Look for the Illini to shut down Wyoming, which was hammered with skill position players transferring. The list of lost players includes their two top QB's along with wide receivers Isaiah Neyor and Xazavian Valladay. 

The point spread key is if Illinois has enough offense to cover a double-digit point spread. I believe they do. The ground game is there with Chase Brown, the best skill position player on either side and one of the better running backs in the Big Ten. The Illini also upgraded their passing attack with Tommy DeVito, formerly of Syracuse. DeVito isn't a star, but he's more of a downfield threat than what the Illini had. He can effectively pick his spots against a Cowboys secondary that lost all four of their starters. 

Wyoming hasn't defeated a Power Five program on the road in 17 years. Don't look for that streak to end here. 

Given the high quality of quarterbacks, wide receivers and offensive coaching acumen and aggressiveness of Sean McVay and Zac Taylor, I easily envision at least 50 points being scored in this Super Bowl just like eight of the last 13 Super Bowls.

Defenses don't have a chance anymore against great offenses in today's modern game. The NFL has manipulated the rules so much that quarterbacks and wide receivers get way too much protection.

Teamed up for the first time under offensive guru McVay, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp produced their finest seasons. The Bengals ranked 26th in pass defense. The Rams are going to get their points here. LA is back to being balanced with the return of Cam Akers to go with inside runner Sony MIchel.

Only Tom Brady threw more TD passes than Stafford. Kupp had one of the greatest receiving years in NFL history leading the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's. Kupp hasn't been contained all season.

Burrow and his trio of outstanding receivers plus Joe Mixon, the NFL's third-leading rusher, trump LA's defense. The Rams have a pair of defensive studs in Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. However, the Rams are below par at linebacker and safety. This is where they are really going to miss underrated injured safety Jordan Fuller, who was the Rams' captain, defensive signal-caller and leading tackler.

The Rams are most vulnerable in the middle of the field. This is where Burrow likes to attack with short passes to his trio of star wideouts Ja'Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, who has come on to produce five 100-yard receiving games in his last nine games. The threat of Mixon helps keep LA's strong pass rush neutralized.

Neither McVay nor Taylor coach scared. They aren't afraid to go for it on fourth down. This is the right way to coach when both team's have outstanding offenses and the rules are skewed almost completely in favor of the offense.

Here are my Super Bowl props: 

I don't trust the Rams' offense against the 49ers. San Francisco held LA to an average of 17 points and 271.5 yards in the team's two meetings this season. The Rams have been held to an average of 17.5 points during their last four games against San Francisco.

Matthew Stafford had a great season with 41 TD passes. But Stafford also tied Trevor Lawrence for the most interceptions with 17. The 49ers can generate a strong pass rush without having to blitz. This is huge because Stafford is strong against blitzes. Nick Bosa can be just as disruptive to an offense as Aaron Donald is for the Rams.

Keep an eye on the status of each team's starting offensive left tackles. The 49ers' Trent Williams was on crutches following the 49ers' win against the Packers last week, while the Rams' Andrew Whitworth missed his team's victory against the Buccaneers because of an ankle injury.

The 49ers ranked No. 3 in defensive total yards. They were in the top seven against both the run and pass.

The Rams' pass rush has come on strong with Von Miller making an impact. Jalen Ramsey gives the Rams the best defensive back. The 49ers are heavily ground-oriented so that is going to eat clock.

I don't trust Jimmy Garoppolo. He's an extremely limited quarterback.

So Under is the best course of action.

Joe Burrow has elevated the Bengals. Cincinnati is going to be a serious playoff contender for years if Burrow stays in one piece. But this isn't Cincinnati's time. Kansas City is the elite team in the NFL and the Chiefs are peaking at the right time. They also are home.

The Bengals have too many holes, including a 26th-ranked secondary, to keep Patrick Mahomes and his bevy of weapons from scoring touchdowns. Mahomes has regained his status as the best QB in football. The Chiefs have scored at least 28 points in each of their last seven games. During their two playoff games against the Steelers and Bills, the Chiefs averaged 42 points and 515 yards.

The Bengals' defense isn't nearly at the level of Buffalo's top-ranked unit.

This puts tremendous pressure on Burrow to keep up with Mahomes. Burrow has the talent, poise and athleticism to do this. He doesn't have the offensive line, though. The Bengals surrendered nine sacks to the Titans yet still came away with a playoff victory last week because of Ryan Tannehill's three interceptions. Mahomes has committed one turnover during his last five games.

Until giving up 36 points to the Bills in last week's overtime shootout, the Chiefs had permitted the fewest points per game since Week 8 allowing 16.1 points.

Kansas City has won 10 of its last 11 games with the lone defeat occurring to the Bengals in Cincinnati. Kansas City is 9-2 at home this season with an average winning margin of 14.2 points.

I'm not going to step in against the Chiefs.

Do you really think the Rams can beat the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers at home traveling cross-country on a short week having just played this past Monday night?

I don't and I'm willing to lay a field goal to back that opinion.

Free of the Lions, Matthew Stafford picked up his first playoff victory knocking off a slumping Cardinals team that hadn't been good since late October. Tom Brady, by comparison, has 35 postseason victories. He's won 21 of his 25 home playoff games.

The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as home chalk. They are 8-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.3 points. The Rams are 2-5 ATS versus above .500 opponents.

Brady doesn't have reliable Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown anymore. But he still has a deep wide receiving corps, a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and could be getting his two best running backs in Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones.

The Rams' defensive line has come on strong. Aaron Donald is a force. But they have holes in their secondary. Losing safety Jordan Fuller late in the season is a key injury. If the Rams have to trot out 38-year-old formerly retired Eric Weddle they're in trouble.

The Buccaneers' defense is back to being formidable with the return to health of linebackers Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and edge pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul.

This is one of the Packers' strongest offenses ever thanks to Aaron Rodgers, who during his last 6 1/2 games threw for 1,929 yards with a 20-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rodgers has a deep wide receiving corps headed by Davante Adams, a top three overall wide receiver, and one of the best running back combos in the league, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

Cold weather isn't going to derail this attack especially when wind won't be a major factor. The 49ers don't have the backend up to hang with all of Rogers' targets. Green Bay could have nearly its entire starting offensive line intact, too, for the first time this season. San Francisco is hoping to have back its best two defenders, pass rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner. Both were injured against the Cowboys last week. It's just an added bonus for Green Bay if either of those players is out.

The cold elements shouldn't bother the 49ers either because their attack is predicated on running and Jimmy Garoppolo playing point guard distributing short passes to Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk, all of whom are outstanding at gaining yards after the catch. Samuel has the most unique skill set in the NFL with his pass catching skills, rushing talents and even the ability to pass.

The Packers could get back cornerback Jaire Alexander and pass rusher Za'Darius Smith. Even if those two return, they aren't likely to play the entire game and their talents are more suited to defend against the pass rather than the run. The physical 49ers should control the trenches when running.

Green Bay's defense slipped noticeably as the season wore on. If you throw out holding the Vikings to just 10 points when Sean Mannion was Minnesota's QB, the Packers have surrendered an average of 30.1 points during their last six games.

Nice season for the Bengals. But it ends in Nashville. The Titans have the right style, playoff experience and improved defense to beat the Bengals by more than a field goal.

Cincinnati ended up in a death struggle to get past the Raiders at home last week finishing that game down three defensive linemen. The Bengals definitely won't have defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi.

These current Bengals have never played in a postseason road game. Tennessee, 7-2 at home this season, is playoff-tested and rested having had a first-round bye. Mike Vrabel is 4-0 SU and ATS following a bye beating the closing point spread by an average of 19.1 points per game.

The extra time should allow Derrick Henry to make his return from a foot injury. Cincinnati has permitted 100 yards rushing in five of its past six games. The Titans averaged 29.1 points a game during Henry's last seven games before he was injured. Ryan Tannehill is a much better QB when defenses have to key on Henry.

The Titans' bruising, ball-control style keeps Joe Burrow off the field. But it's not just that. The Titans were one of the most improved defenses during the last 11 games giving up 17.5 points and 300.3 yards per game during this stretch. They have a number of underrated pass rushers and athletic linebackers. I doubt the Bengals' youthful offensive line will hold up at the line of scrimmage to the detriment of Burrow.

The Cardinals lost their edge with a late October Thursday night home loss to the Packers. They have yet to regain it and I don't see that changing in this matchup. 
Arizona is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Cardinals' defense has been below par the second half of the season. Their secondary has given up 14 TD passes with just one interception during the last five games. 

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, who had a superstar season, can take advantage. Stafford threw for a career-high 41 TD passes in his first year with Rams offensive guru coach Sean McVay while Kupp led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's, emerging as the top wide receiver in the NFL. Stafford had no problem in two games against the Cardinals this season, completing 69 percent for 567 yards and a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The Rams are going to get their points here. I don't see the Cardinals keeping up. I give a huge plus to Aaron Donald and a Rams defense line that is peaking against an Arizona offensive line that has sprung leaks and doesn't have a quality healthy running back left. 

This puts tremendous pressure on Kyler Murray, who hasn't been the same dominant force he was earlier in the season before missing four games. Minus superstar wide receiver and security blanket DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals are far less dangerous through the air and in the red zone. Arizona's offense mainly consists of a bunch of 5-yard passes for Murray, which isn't going to get the job done. 

McVay is 5-1 against Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury. During these six meetings the Rams have held Murray in check. Murray's averaged 233.2 passing yards, 6.8 yards per attempt with eight all-purpose TD's and nine turnovers along with being sacked 18 times. 

The Chiefs' explosive offense is back on track averaging 35.4 points during their last five games. This includes producing 36 points against the Steelers in Week 16. The Chiefs scored on each of their first four possessions, piling up 381 total yards of offense. Patrick Mahomes threw for 258 yards and 3 TD's despite not having Travis Kelce. 

Pittsburgh has surrendered at least 36 points in four of its last five road games. 

Safe to say, the Chiefs are going to get their share of points here. 

But what about the Steelers? Can Pittsburgh contribute its share of points? 

I believe the Steelers can. The Chiefs' run defense has become leaky giving up an average of 143.2 yards rushing in their last four games. If Najee Harris is effective on the ground, the Steelers' passing attack can be effective off play-action. 

If the Chiefs load up to stop the run by committing their safeties, Ben Roethlisberger will attack their man coverage. Roethlisberger won't be shy about passing in what likely is his final game. 

I rate the Buccaneers two levels higher than the Eagles. Given home field advantage and having more playoff experience, the Buccaneers should win this game handily.

Tampa Bay won the Super Bowl last season. The Buccaneers could be even better this season. They set a franchise record with 13 victories. Tom Brady had one of his greatest seasons, which really says a lot given how many outstanding years he's had. Brady passed for 5,316 yards - third most in NFL history - and set a Tampa Bay record with 43 TD passes.

The Eagles are not battle tested. They've met only three teams at .500 or above since November and went 1-2 SU and ATS against them. The Eagles went 1-6 ATS on the season when they faced above .500 opponents. Nick Sirianni is in his first season as Eagles head coach. Second-year QB Jalen Hurts has never been in a playoff game. He also is dealing with an ankle injury.

Philadelphia led the NFL in rushing. But Tampa Bay has been one of the best run defenses for the past three seasons. Hurts is a better runner than thrower.

The Buccaneers built a 28-7 lead against the Eagles in their earlier matchup this season. The Eagles scored a couple of late TD's to make the final a respectable, but misleading 28-22. The game closed with Brady taking a knee inside the Eagles' 10-yard line.

The Eagles have been huge money-burners when getting points going 3-14 ATS the last 17 times as an underdog.

It's easy to remember the Raiders' last game. That being a memorable, 35-32, home overtime victory against the Chargers on national TV this past Sunday night.

Those combined 67 points and Joe Burrow's hot hand may have influenced this opening total, which I find too high given the matchup and expected weather conditions.

The forecast is for temperatures to be in the 20s with a 50 percent chance of snow. Las Vegas hasn't played in under 44 degree weather all season.

Burrow was sizzling in Weeks 16 and 17 combining to pass for nearly 1,000 yards with eight TD's. Burrow, though, may have lost some of his hot hand after being rested this past Sunday. The Raiders are a respectable 13th in pass defense. Las Vegas had allowed 15.6 points in its past three games prior to meeting the Chargers.

Cincinnati's defense was much improved this season especially against the run, ranking fifth in the NFL. The Bengals held the Raiders to 13 points and fewer than 300 yards of offense in their, 32-13, victory in Week 11.

Before scoring 35 points on the Chargers, the Raiders had averaged only 14 points during their last five games. Derek Carr needs Josh Jacobs to keep him out of obvious passing situations. I don't see Jacobs doing much, though, against Cincinnati's strong rush defense.

Prop Bet

When healthy, Darren Waller is one of the top-five tight ends in football. Waller missed Weeks 13-17, but returned last week against the Chargers.

This total has gone up four points from when the teams met in last month's SEC title game. That's because Alabama blasted Georgia, 41-24, in that matchup.

I don't see that happening again now that Georgia has a better read on Bryce Young, Jameson Williams, Brian Robinson and the rest of Alabama's high-powered attack.

Until that loss to the Crimson Tide, the Bulldogs hadn't given up more than 17 points in a game all season, holding eight foes to seven or fewer points. Georgia has the best defense in the country and that's not up for debate. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense, second in defensive total yards, No. 3 in passing yards and fourth in rushing yards.

The Under is 8-2-2 in Georgia's last 12 neutral site games.

Alabama, naturally, has defensive studs, too. The Crimson Tide also is facing a lesser QB in Stetson Bennett.

The stage and pressure is too much for the Raiders with a chance to reach the playoffs for only the second time in 19 years.

I give checkmarks to the Chargers in nearly every category with a major one at QB with Justin Herbert, who already has set a Chargers franchise record with 35 TD passes this season.

The Chargers' secondary is healthy for one of the rare times this season and underrated run-stuffer Justin Jones also has returned to the lineup.

Special teams have been a weakness for the Chargers. But that area was shored up in late October with the signings of kicker Dustin Hopkins and kick/punt returner Andre Roberts. Hopkins is 17-for-18 in field goals. Roberts leads the league in yards per kickoff return.

I understand that both of these offenses have regressed very much.

But this total is too low especially with this game being played on a fast track inside a dome.

The Saints may get both of their starting offensive tackles, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramzcyk, back. That would be a huge plus as Armstead and Ramzcyk are well above average.

I consider dual threat Taysom Hill a major upgrade on Trevor Siemian. Alvin Kamara is an elite all-purpose back. Hill will be operating against an Atlanta defense that ranks 29th in points allowed, 26th in run defense and 24th in total defense.

Matt Ryan has endured a down season. But he's not devoid of weapons with Cordarrelle Patterson, who has put together a Kamara-type all-purpose season with 1,154 yards from scrimmage, and star tight end Kyle Pitts, who will be trying to break Mike Ditka's rookie record for tight end receiving yardage.

I find this line inflated because the Dolphins are out of playoff contention and the Patriots are off a 40-point victory against the Jaguars and are alive to win the AFC East.

The Dolphins, though, aren't going to roll over with a chance to finish above .500, beat their long-time division rival and have a number of players reach performance bonus incentives.

The Patriots won't win the division with a victory here if the Bills beat the Jets. The Patriots know the Bills aren't losing to the Jets.

Until giving up 34 points to the Titans last week on a short week and in a flat spot, Miam had held its previous seven opponents to an average of 11.7 points. Even in the loss to the Titans, the Dolphins held them to 308 total yards.

The Patriots don't have an explosive offense when going against a good defense. Bill Belichick doesn't have a good track record either when playing in Miami during December and January going 2-7 SU and ATS the past nine times. Playing in high 70-degree heat in January is not what the Patriots are used to.

This one is about mindset and numbers. The Cardinals are alive for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. All it would take is for them to win here and for the Rams to lose to the 49ers for the sixth time in a row.

Arizona ranks in the top 11 in nearly all of the major statistical categories, including giving up the fifth-fewest points and being ranked eighth in total offense.

Seattle won't be making the postseason for only the second time in the last 10 seasons. The Seahawks have below average offensive numbers and rank 30th in total defense and 31st in pass defense. And this was padding their statistics with a 51-29 victory against the Lions last week.

The Seahawks could enter this matchup, which for them is meaningless, fat and happy following that victory lacking a killer instinct. Seattle isn't likely to have its best defensive player, middle linebacker Bobby Wagner. He suffered a knee sprain last week.

The Cardinals have played three tough opponents during their last four games having drawn the Rams, Colts and Cowboys. Seattle, on the other hand, got to go against the Texans, Bears and Lions during three of its past four matchups.

Arizona defeated the Seahawks, 23-13, at Seattle in Week 11 outgaining the Seahawks by 147 yards.

Aaron Rodgers is making a strong case to repeat as MVP throwing for 16 TD passes without an interception in his last five games. This includes a four-touchdown, 385-yard passing game against the Vikings. The Vikings pulled that game out, 34-31, as Kirk Cousins nearly matched Rodgers.

Now Cousins is out due to COVID. The line has skyrocketed because of that to where the Packers are laying two TD's instead of one. 

Minnesota has played close games every week. But that was with Cousins. The Vikings aren't going to be able to keep up with Rodgers now that Sean Mannion will be their quarterback. Minnesota also is without its second best receiver, Adam Thielen. 

The Vikings' defense has been disappointing a second straight season giving up 30.4 points in their last five games. The revenge-minded Packers are going to put up their share of points here. 

I consider Mannion a stiff. I don't see him being able to elevate the Vikings, who have morale issues because of Cousins. Mike Zimmer has lost much of his luster, too. He could be on the way out. 

The Colts have thrived because of turnovers and the running of Jonathan Taylor, who has emerged as a superstar leading the NFL in rushing.

Stop Taylor and don't turn the ball over and you can beat the Colts. Turnovers are hard to predict when there's a veteran at quarterback, which the Raiders have in Derek Carr.

The Raiders have improved their run defense. They held Nick Chubb to less than 4.0 yards a carry in beating the Browns two weeks ago. Then Las Vegas stopped Denver's rushing attack completely last week in a victory. The Broncos managed only 18 yards on the ground.

The Colts are expected to have Carson Wentz. It's a big break for the Raiders if rookie Sam Ehlinger has to make his first start. I'm not counting on that. But lost in the news that Wentz is likely to play is the Raiders getting four key defenders removed from the COVID list - leading tackler linebacker Denzel Perryman, linebacker Cory Littleton, lineman Darius Philon and cornerback Casey Hayward, who is having a huge bounce back season.

The Raiders are 2-1 in their last three road games. They can clinch their first playoff berth in 19 years with a victory here and in Week 18 against the Chargers.

Two bad offenses playing in cold weather. Sounds like an Under, right? No, not when the total is this low and two worn down defenses are involved. 

The Giants are giving up an average of 30.6 points during their last three games. The Bears have scored at least 22 points in three of their past four games. 

David Montgomery is in line for a big performance with the Giants possibly down several of their run-stuffing defensive linemen. Andy Dalton can be effective with Montgomery doing the heavy lifting. Dalton has several underrated receiving targets. Matt Nagy shouldn't be afraid to open the playbook for the veteran Dalton. It's not like Nagy has anything to lose since he's likely to be canned at the end of the season.  

Former Bear Mike Glennon should get the start for the Giants. Glennon is a stiff, but he has some talented skill-position weapons and the Bears defense has not been good for a while now giving up an average of 27.6 points in their last nine games. 

I want the best quarterback in college football going for me here in this Sugar Bowl game. That QB is Matt Corral.

Baylor has an improved defense. But the Bears haven't faced a quarterback of Corral's caliber with his legs and big arm. The Bears were fortunate to reach this game by nipping Oklahoma State, 21-16, in the Big 12 championship game. The Bears intercepted Cowboys QB Spencer Sanders four times in that victory.

Corral can run like Sanders, but his throwing is far, far more accurate and better. Corral completed 68.4 percent of his throws for 3,339 yards and 20 TD's while adding 597 yards rushing and 11 running TD's. Here's the kicker about Corral: He threw just four interceptions in 380 attempts.

The Rebels' offensive coordinator is Jeff Lebby, who was a former assistant coach at Baylor under Art Briles. Ole Miss averaged 506.7 yards and 35.9 points a game. The Rebels are deep at running back and wide receiver giving Corral plenty of options. The highly-respected Lebby will become Oklahoma's offensive coordinator following this game.

Baylor isn't going to be able to slow down the Rebels unless coming up with turnovers. Bears QB Gerry Bohanon is not in Corral's class - few are - and he's coming off a hamstring injury. So his mobility might not be 100 percent.

Exit Texas A&M. Enter Rutgers. The result is Wake Forest is going to win this Gator Bowl. The question is by how many?

The Aggies had to pull out due to COVID problems. Rutgers was chosen to replace Texas A&M. The Scarlet Knights' season should have ended at the end of November since they are 5-7. They weren't even eligible to play in a bowl.

But strange things happen in this COVID-laced sports world. So, just barely a week ago, the Scarlet Knights found out they are going to a bowl game after all. This one. Two things: Rutgers isn't a legitimate bowl team and the Scarlet Knights don't nearly have enough time mentally and physically to adequately prepare for this game. The line has been steamed up and it's justified.

Wake Forest has a very strong offense averaging 41.2 points a game, fifth-best in the country. Sam Hartman was one of the most productive QB's in the nation. Rutgers ranked 79th in total defense and that's playing against a number of boring offenses in the Big Ten.

The Demon Deacons aren't nearly as good defensively, but Rutgers is very weak offensively ranking 113th in points scored and 118th in yardage.

This is a real mismatch where the opponent and situation work strongly against Rutgers.

I see a class difference of more than a touchdown here. Current form counts for something, too.

The Badgers went 7-1 down the stretch. They led the nation in total defense and were sixth in scoring defense surrendering 16.4 points per game. 
Arizona State went 3-3 in its last six games, 2-4 ATS. The Sun Devils' only win against a Bowl team was against UCLA. Wisconsin posted victories over Bowl teams Purdue by 17 points and 20 against Iowa. 

The Sun Devils are 96th in passing offense. Their QB, Jayden Daniels, hasn't lived up to lofty expectations. 

The game is in Las Vegas. But Arizona State won't have a crowd advantage because the Badgers travel extremely well with tremendous fan support. 

This figured to be an entertaining, high-scoring game. Not anymore with word that Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett and Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III are not going to play.

Those two not playing completely changes the total.

Pickett passed for 4,319 yards and 42 TD's. Walker rushed for 1,636 yards and scored 18 TD's. They are the focal points of their team's offenses.

Michigan State gave up 25.7 points per game. The Spartans now will draw Pittsburgh backup QB Nick Patti, a massive drop for Pittsburgh. The Panthers also will be minus well-respected offensive coordinator Mark Whipple, who left for Nebraska. That's another huge hit for the Panthers' offense.

The Panthers held opponents to 23.1 points. Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi made his reputation as Michigan State's defensive coordinator before taking over at Pittsburgh. The Spartans are ground-oriented. Pittsburgh ranks sixth in the nation in run defense. Payton Thorne is a decent QB for Michigan State, but he's far from elite. He'll be facing a tough Panthers' defensive line.

Opt-outs and transfers can greatly impact a bowl game. We saw it happen with Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl on Monday when Western Michigan blew out the Wolf Pack, 52-24. Nevada was missing its star QB plus all of its best receivers. 

Oregon is down around 30 scholarship players, including star defensive lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux. The Ducks did not look good down the stretch either losing a pair of games to Utah by the combined score of 76-17. 

Oklahoma is a top-12 team in scoring and yards. I much prefer Sooners freshman QB Caleb Williams to the Ducks' inconsistent signal-caller, Anthony Brown. Williams took the starting job away from Spencer Rattler, who was considered a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender before the season. Williams threw for 1,670 yards with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The game is being played in San Antonio, Texas. That's a plus for Oklahoma, which is the closer school and should have a higher fan turnout. 

Two slow-paced, grind-out, ground-oriented type teams with mediocre quarterbacks. That's what we have here in this Guaranteed Rate Bowl between West Virginia and Minnesota.

Given the matchup and circumstances, this game should be a dead nuts Under.

West Virginia ranks 93rd in tempo. The Mountaineers have a subpar offensive line and QB in Jarrett Doege. Their best running back is Leddie Brown, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored 13 TD's. Brown, though, opted out. Minnesota is extremely tough defensively ranking in the top 11 in the major defensive categories - points, yards, passing yards and rushing yards. Only three teams surrendered fewer yards per game than the Gophers.

Minnesota plays even slower than West Virginia. The Gophers lost their first two running backs. But that doesn't change their approach. They run nearly 70 percent of the time. Their quarterback, Tanner Morgan, has had a disappointing season. Minnesota ranked 115th in passing.

West Virginia ranks 33rd in run defense.

Nevada's outstanding passing attack is gutted with opt outs and transfers. The Wolf Pack will be minus star QB Carson Strong, tight end Cole Turner and wide receivers Romeo Doubs, Tory Horton, Melquan Stovall and Justin Lockhart. In addition, two of the Wolf Pack's starting offensive linemen won't be playing.

Take all of that firepower away and of course the Wolf Pack aren't left with much. Nevada is going to have to run the ball more than normal. The Wolf Pack ranked 129th in rushing averaging 2.9 yards a carry. Western MIchigan gave up the 29th fewest yards in the nation.

Unlike their offense, the Wolf Pack didn't suffer so many departures on defense. Nevada ranked a respectable 51st in scoring defense giving up 24.4 points a game. Western Michigan has been plagued by turnovers at times. Nevada ranked among the top 10 in turnovers.

Note this is an extremely early start, 8 a.m. West Coast time for Nevada, so that could lead to sluggish play.

The Cowboys' defense is better. However, their offense is worse. The combination of that, short revenge for Washington, the return of Taylor Heinicke and a boatload of points in this long-standing division rivalry puts me on Washington.

Dallas may not have its full motivation having clinched a playoff berth already when the 49ers lost to the Titans on Thursday.

The Cowboys nearly blew a 19-point lead when the teams met two weeks ago winning, 27-20. Washington will have Heinicke back after being forced to go with street free agent Garrett Gilbert against the Eagles last week due to Heinicke and backup QB Kyle Allen being sidelined by COVID-19. Washington is 6-6 with Heinicke under center.

Dak Prescott (calf) and Ezekiel Elliott (knee) are not 100 percent - and their performances have reflected that. Prescott has failed to exceed 238 yards passing in four of his last five games. Prescott has three TD passes and three interceptions in his last three games. Elliott hasn't broken the 52-yard rushing barrier in his last eight games. He's averaged more than 3.0 yards per carry only once during these past eight games.

Mike McCarthy brazenly and foolishly guaranteed the Cowboys would beat Washington in the first meeting. Ron Rivera could not have taken kindly to that amateurish display. Rivera is the better coach. It wouldn't shock me if Washington won this game straight-up.

Both teams are 7-7. But I consider the Broncos to be the superior team. I like the Broncos' defense, coaching, running backs and wide receivers better than the Raiders. I also give Denver a checkmark at tight end if Darren Waller has to miss another week.

Denver has held opponents to 17 points or fewer in six of its last eight games. The Raiders have managed 16 points or fewer in six of their last seven games. Hunter Renfroe has emerged as the Raiders' most productive offensive player. He does his damage from the slot. However, the Broncos get back cornerback Bryce Callahan this week from a knee injury. He's one of the better slot coverage corners. He gives the Broncos a strong secondary to go with cornerback Patrick Surtain and safety Justin Simmons.

Drew Lock is going to start for injured Teddy Bridgewater. I welcome that change from a Denver standpoint. Lock doesn't have Bridgewater's accuracy, but he's more of a downfield threat. He is better equipped to take advantage of the Broncos many receiving weapons, which include Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick and Noah Fant. Lock has been turnover-prone in the past. The Raiders, though, have a league-low five interceptions, only three by their cornerbacks. The Raiders' secondary also is dealing with COVID-19 and injuries. Safety Jonathan Abram is out for the season.

I also give the Broncos a strong running back edge with Melvin Gordon and good-looking rookie Javonte Williams. They can take the pressure off Lock. The Raiders have only eight sacks in their last six games.

Jacksonville has a real opportunity to do something it hasn't done during the last 15 games - win on the road. 

The opponent and timing are right for the Jaguars to halt the NFL's longest road losing streak. 

The Jets are terrible on both sides of the ball giving up the most yards and points while ranking 27th in scoring. They've also committed the most turnovers. If this isn't bad enough, the Jets are dealing with a major COVID-19 problem. Currently they have 18 players on the protocol list along with head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets already have many key injuries. They don't have the depth to deal with this. 

Jacksonville has the better defense, superior quarterback and top running back in James Robinson. The Jaguars give up 5.7 yards per play, which ranks 21st in the league. The Jets rank last allowing 6.2 yards per play. 

I'm not a huge fan of Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer, the Jaguars' new offensive brain trust. But they are professionals and an upgrade on clueless Urban Meyer. The Jaguars should be more focused for this matchup without the toxic Meyer after having to play the Texans last week just three days after finding out Meyer had been fired.

Missing Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley for much of the year, Matt Ryan has had a very disappointing season. So have the Falcons. 

The 6-8 Falcons still are alive for a playoff spot, though. This is a get well game for them and the timing couldn't be more perfect. 

The Lions are off just their second victory. Detroit has yet to win on the road. The Lions nipped the Vikings, 29-27, three games ago for their first win. Detroit followed that up by getting hammered on the road by the Broncos, 38-10. 

Now the Lions are off a 30-12 victory against the Cardinals and taking to the road. The Lions aren't expected to have Jared Goff. There's a huge drop from Goff to backup Tim Boyle, who is not going to be helped playing on the road. 

Detroit also has a cluster injury problem at cornerback. The Lions already were down Jeff Okudah and his replacement, Jerry Jacobs. Now they aren't expected to have Amani Oruwariye, who has become their No. 1 corner. Oruwariye has a thumb injury and may need surgery. 

So the Lions will have to face Ryan with Will Harris, a converted safety, and rookie Ifeatu Melifonwu at the starting cornerback spots. It's not like the Lions have the depth to fill these areas. Detroit ranks in the bottom-eight in all of the major defensive categories. 

The Falcons can't beat elite teams, but they've been solid against sub .500 foes having defeated the Giants, Jets, Jaguars and Panthers. 

The Eagles have won four of their last five games to reach 7-7. The Eagles are more average than good, though. During this five-game span the Eagles have faced the following five quarterbacks: Garrett Gilbert, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Trevor Siemian and Teddy Bridgewater. 

Philadelphia's lone loss during this time frame came to Jones and the Giants, 13-17, in Week 12. Jalen Hurts had the worst game of his two-year NFL career in that matchup throwing three interceptions. 

The Giants won't have the injured Jones. Instead they'll go with untested Jake Fromm, who will be making his NFL first start. Fromm is a downgrade from Jones, but he can't be worse than Mike Glennon. Fromm has had a full week of working with New York's first-stringers this week. He has good skill position weapons. 
The Eagles are on a short week having beaten COVID-19 decimated Washington, 27-17, this past Tuesday night. The Eagles might not have their head coach, Nick Sirianni. The Eagles have the most inexperienced coaching staff in the NFL. It's a challenge for them to prepare on such a short week.  

The Giants are out of playoff contention at 4-10. But their defense has been hanging in and they will have motivation for this matchup. If you discount games against the Chargers and Buccaneers - two offenses with far stronger passing attacks than the Eagles - the Giants have given up an average of 17.8 points in their last six games. 

Besides this being a long-standing division rivalry, the Giants still hold a legitimate grudge against the Eagles for Philadelphia tanking in last season's finale against Washington. The Giants beat the Cowboys in their final game, but were denied the NFC East Division title when the Eagles failed to beat Washington. Then Eagles coach Doug Pederson replaced Hurts with backup Nate Sudfeld during the fourth quarter against Washington. Sudfeld was horrible, to no one's surprise, committing two costly turnovers. 

The Giants also want to see if Fromm can do anything given an opportunity. So there's some intrigue there. 

There's a certain ying/yang, zig/zag flow to the NFL season. Similar to the stock market, there is a buy low time. That time is now to get the Cardinals.

Arizona is better than the 3-4 record it has during the last seven games, while the Colts aren't as good as their 5-1 record during their past six games. The Cardinals looked terrible losing to the Lions last week, while the Colts were outstanding in handling the Patriots last week.

I expect a change-up this week and the price certainly is cheap enough to back the home Cardinals in circle-the-wagons mode.

The teams have had eight common opponents. The Colts went 4-4 SU and ATS against those foes while the Cardinals went 7-1 SU and ATS.

Indy needs Jonathan Taylor to succeed. But the Colts' excellent offensive line has injuries and COVID issues. They could be down as many as three O-line starters. Kyler Murray draws all the attention, but the Cardinals defense has been very good giving up the fifth fewest points in the league.

Murray holds a huge edge on Carson Wentz. James Conner has 16 TD's, just three fewer than touchdown leader Taylor.

I'm expecting an all-out desperation effort by the Cardinals. The Colts, on the other hand, could be flat after last week's performance and deflated knowing their long shot division chances took a huge hit when the Titans upset the 49ers this past Thursday.

This is far from being one of the better bowl matchups, but it's the only one on Christmas and there are enough edges for Georgia State to get involved in backing the Panthers.

Georgia State is in much better current form than Ball State winning six of its last seven games. The Panthers finished as the No. 2 team in the Sun Belt Conference. They have a good football program and this is a chance for country-wise exposure being on national TV. 

The Panthers beat Western Kentucky, 39-21, in the LendingTree Bowl last season as a 3-point favorite. 

Ball State is a middle-of-the-road Mid-American Conference team that shouldn't even be in a bowl game at 6-6. The Cardinals are 4-8 ATS. They have lost three of their last five games. 

Georgia State holds a big edge on the ground. The Panthers rank eighth in rushing. Ball State is 96th in stopping the run giving up nearly 180 yards rushing. 

The Cardinals don't have much offense either, ranking 94th in scoring and 109th in total yards. Georgia State held five opponents to one offensive TD. The Panthers had a school-record 84 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. They also have the best defensive back in Antavious Lane, who has four interceptions and 72 tackles. 

I want the Titans going for me in a Thursday night home underdog role desperately needing a victory. The Titans have cobbled together a serviceable ground attack without Derrick Henry and they're getting back their two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones.

That's huge for Ryan Tannehill, who has suffered without his two top targets. The 49ers are banged-up in the secondary. They also will be missing their leading rusher, Elijah Mitchell.

San Francisco is ground-oriented. The 49ers set up the pass via running the ball. The Titans, however, rank No. 2 in run defense. Tennessee has improved very much defensively. Discounting giving up 36 points to the Patriots, the Titans have held their past five opponents to an average of 15.6 points. They just held the Steelers to 168 total yards last week. That was the least amount of yards Tennessee has permitted in 11 years.

The 49ers are on a nice roll, but I don't consider them an elite NFC team worthy of beating a similar-caliber AFC team.

The perceived thinking about this Armed Services Bowl pitting Missouri versus Army is this: Army's triple-option attack is going to run rough shot against a Tigers defense that ranked 125th out of 130 FBS teams in stopping the run and that the Tigers are going to put up their share of points having averaged nearly 30 points during the regular season.

I don't see either occurring. 

Army is strictly one-dimensional. The Cadets have no passing attack. They will be running the ball - eating clock - all game no matter what the score. Missouri's run defense is not as bad as its season statistics indicate. The Tigers greatly improved their rush defense down the stretch. They held South Carolina to 57 yards on the ground in 35 attempts three games ago and two games ago held Florida to 93 yards rushing on 33 carries for a 2.4 yard average. 

The Cadets may be flat, too, off a tremendously disappointing loss to arch-rival Navy in their last game. Army managed just 124 yards rushing against the Midshipmen on 33 carries, a 3.7-yard average. 

As for Missouri, its offense isn't nearly the same - nor effective - minus star all-purpose running back Tyler Badie. He produced 1,934 rushing and receiving yards while scoring 18 TD's. He opted out. The Tigers also are going to give Brady Cook his first career start instead of going with their regular quarterback, Connor Bazelak, who threw for 2,548 yards and 16 TD's during the regular season. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz was not pleased with Bazelak's performance in Missouri's last game hence the QB switch. 

Army ranks 15th in total defense and 36th in scoring defense giving up 22.3 points a game. 

Much has changed since the Saints beat the Buccaneers, 31-27, back on Oct. 31. None of it good for New Orleans.

His toe may hurt, but Aaron Rodgers is in MVP-form with a 10-to-zero TD-to-interception ratio in his last three games. The Packers are averaging 37.3 points during this span. Davante Adams has been at his masterful best during the last three games, too, with 25 receptions for 340 yards and four TD's. Rodgers and Adams face a Ravens secondary full of injuries.

Tyler Huntley proved himself last week if Lamar Jackson can't play. Huntley was 27-of-38 passing for 270 yards with one TD pass and no interceptions against the Browns after Jackson suffered an ankle injury early in the game.

Green Bay is surrendering 30.6 points in its last three games.

Special teams are another factor. The Ravens have the best special teams in the league, including the top kicker. The Packers are well below average in special teams coverage.

No team has been worse as a big home favorite than the 49ers under Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco has failed to cover the last 10 times they've been home chalk when laying 5 or more points. All together, they are 4-15-1 ATS in this role.

The Falcons have been at their best on the road winning six of eight games away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Cordarrelle Patterson has emerged this season as a rushing/receiver threat rather than just a dangerous kick returner. His presence relieves much of the pressure on Matt Ryan to have to win this game himself. The Falcons' ground game has picked up thanks to Patterson, averaging 132.6 rushing yards the past three games.

Atlanta remains in the playoff hunt so a hard effort should be a given.

San Francisco has been hard hit by injuries in the secondary and at running back. The 49ers are ground-oriented with a game-manager type QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. They are not geared to covering big margins like this.

On the surface this total may seem correct since the Texans are averaging just nine points in their last three games, while the Jaguars are averaging 9.1 points during their last seven games.

But the dynamics have changed. I doubt we see the combined 58 points that these teams put together opening week when Houston beat Jacksonville, 37-21. I do see, though, enough points being produced to safely get this above the listed total.

The Texans have had enough of veteran journeyman Tyrod Taylor. Rookie Davis Mills is auditioning for the starting quarterback role. The Texans want to see what they have in Mills so they want him to air it out. Mills threw a season-high 49 times for a career-high 331 yards against the Seahawks last week. Mills has a pair of quality wide receiver targets, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins.

Jacksonville ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 26.2 points a game.

I'm expecting the Jaguars' offense to become much better without Urban Meyer around to screw things up. Returning this week for the Jaguars is their center Brandon Linder, who was out with a back injury. James Robinson is expected to get a full workload - something Meyer should have done. This will make things easier for Trevor Lawrence, who also should come up big minus Meyer.

Houston has permitted 64 points during its last two games and are down key defenders due to injuries, sickness, or getting rid of.

Buffalo ranks first in total defense and third in scoring defense giving up 17.6 points a game. The Panthers have no passing game and their ground attack is greatly lessened with Christian McCaffrey out. The Panthers have become a full-fledged ground-and-pound team - excellent for Under the total - when they fired offensive coordinator Joe Brady. The Panthers are averaging fewer than 20 points a game.

Josh Allen isn't 100 percent because of a foot injury. He's taking on a Carolina defense that ranks No. 1 in pass defense and gives up the second-fewest yards per game. Allen has turned the ball over at least once in each of the last six games committing 10 turnovers during this span.

This is a December game in Buffalo so the weather is going to be cold. The forecast is for temperatures in the high 20's with 10 mph winds.

Pittsburgh is home and in must-win mode at 6-6-1 while the Titans have clear sailing to the AFC South Division title. The Titans, though, are not the same team since losing Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, their best wide receiver. 

Tennessee hasn't broken the 23-point barrier in its last four games, averaging 17.2 points during this span. The Steelers' defense should be much better with T.J. Watt and cornerback Joe Haden returning to the lineup. Ryan Tannehill hasn't passed for more than 213 yards in four of his last five games.

The Titans' defense isn't strong enough to carry their depleted offense minus linebacker Bud Dupree and a banged-up secondary. Najee Harris has lived up to lofty expectations and Ben Roethlisberger still is showing life averaging 270 yards passing his past four games with nine TD throws during this time frame. 

The Steelers also are on extra rest having played last Thursday. That's big this late in the season. 

Louisiana Lafayette has a tremendous defense. The Cajuns supplement their defense by playing ball control on offense, mixing running plays with short, conservative passes from Levi Lewis. This was on full display in the Cajuns' 24-16 victory against Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. 

That pattern will be on display again against Marshall in this New Orleans Bowl resulting in another Under. 

The Cajuns rank 11th in scoring defense giving up 18.2 points a game, while forcing 21 turnovers. Marshall QB Grant Wells threw 12 interceptions in 12 games. Marshall finished the regular season minus 5 in takeaways/giveaways. 

The total is higher than I believe it should be partly because Marshall surrendered 53 points to Western Kentucky in its last game. Western Kentucky, though, is the second-highest scoring team in the country averaging 43.1 points. Before that game, the Thunder Herd had given up an average of 16 points during their past six games. 

Marshall finished 13th nationally in sacks with 38 and has a star linebacker in Abraham Beauplan.

Malik Willis gets all the attention when it comes to Liberty. But the Flames are very strong defensively. They rank fifth in pass defense, 11th in defensive total yards and 30th in scoring defense holding foes to 21.7 points a game. 

Eastern Michigan doesn't run the ball effectively. Instead the Eagles rely on QB Ben Bryant and a short passing attack. Bryant is facing a top-notch pass defense here and a tough pass rush playing behind an offensive line that has yielded 38 sacks. 

The Eagles should get their share of sacks, too, since Liberty surrendered 50 sacks. 

Note that this bowl game is being played in Mobile, Ala., and the weather forecast is calling for an 80 percent chance of rain with thundershowers and wind in the 5-to-10 mph range. That's a bad break for Willis and a plus for the Under. 

This line originally was set too low because Fresno State was going to be without its coach, Kalen DeBoer, and star QB, Jake Haener. DeBoer is headed to Washington to take over the Huskies' program. But Haener isn't going with him as originally thought. 

Haener has decided to stay at Fresno State and not transfer after the Bulldogs named highly-respected QB guru Jeff Tedford as their new head coach replacing DeBoer.

The Bulldogs are far more talented than UTEP, strong on both sides of the ball. Talent-wise, the Bulldogs are easily two TD's better than the Miners. Motivation is a key. UTEP will have it playing in-state and not having been to a bowl since 2014. 

Fresno State went 9-3. The Bulldogs were hoping to land a bigger bowl spot. But now that Tedford is their coach, I believe the Bulldogs will produce a strong effort as they have many returning starters. They won't want to embarrass interim coach Les Marks knowing Tedford will be closely following things. So that motivation angle is heavily reduced. Fresno State also has more bowl experience. 

Fresno State has a balanced attack with several good running backs. Haener is one of the better QB's on the West Coast. He passed for 3,810 yards and 32 TD passes. He has a pro caliber wideout in Jaylen Cropper. Haener's passing efficiency mark of 158.1 was the best in the Mountain West Conference and 15th best in the nation. 
UTEP was respectable on defense ranking 53rd in scoring defense giving up 24.8 points a game. But the Miners are well below average offensively ranking 89th in scoring at 25.2 points and 71st in total yards. 

The Miners have little backdoor ability if they should fall behind, which is highly likely. 

Nearly three months ago, the Chargers and Chiefs played in Kansas City. Justin Herbert threw a TD pass to Mike Williams with 32 seconds left to give LA a 30-24 victory. 

As good as the Cardinals have been this season they still haven't done much at home. Arizona has lost its past two home contests - to the Packers and Panthers - and has a losing spread mark at home. The Cardinals would have a losing straight-up mark at home, too, if they didn't nip the Vikings by one point.

The Packers went into their bye last week after producing 36 points against the Rams. They should be fresh with a strong game plan and with the possible return of their best offensive lineman, David Bakhtiari.

Chicago's defense has been weakened by injuries to several players, including Khalil Mack, and sinking morale. The Bears have surrendered 29 or more points in four of their last six games. Their run defense ranks 23rd. The Bears will have to deal with the Packers' two-headed running back tandem of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, while also having to contend with Aaron Rodgers, who has a history of picking apart Chicago.

The Bears are getting some of their injured offensive players back, including Allen Robinson and Justin Fields, who should be well prepared and have fresh legs having been out the last two games.

Weather shouldn't be a major hindrance with temperatures in the 20's, no snow and wind in the 10-15 mph range.

It didn't show against the Patriots this past Monday night because of the extreme weather conditions, but the Bills are vulnerable defensively against the pass minus their injured star cornerback Tre'Davious White. Tom Brady, who leads the NFL in passing yards and passing TD's, is sure to exploit White's replacement, Dane Jackson.

Tampa Bay has scored 30 or more points in more than half of its games. The Bills' defense is worse than perceived. Buffalo fattened its defensive numbers by going against a number of mediocre-to-bad QB's. The Bills gave up 41 points to the Colts and 34 to the Titans. Brady is much better than Carson Wentz and Ryan Tannehill. Brady also has a much deeper set of receiving targets than those QB's have.

The Bills have scored at least 31 points in seven of their 12 games. Both teams play at a very fast tempo, too. Unlike last week, weather won't be a hindrance for Josh Allen and Buffalo's offense.

Let's start with the premise Denver is going to win. This is perfectly logical since the Broncos are favored by double-digits and the Lions have one victory during their past 16 games.

Now the hard part. Will Denver cover the spread? The evidence and situation say they will.

The Broncos are 6-6. Their six victories were by 14 against the Giants, by 10 against the Jaguars, the Jets by 26, 7 over Washington, 14 against the Cowboys and 15 versus the Chargers. So all but one of their wins was by double-digits. The Broncos take care of business against bad teams. Their average winning margin against the Giants, Jaguars and Jets was 16.6 points.

Denver has lost only once to a sub .500 team. That was to the 6-7 Eagles.

Now the situation. The Broncos remain in the playoff hunt. The Lions are fat and happy having ended the NFL's longest losing streak with their victory against the Vikings at home last Sunday. The Lions hadn't reached 20 points since opening week prior to beating the Vikings, while averaging a puny 11.4 points during their previous four games.

Vic Fangio isn't going to be too challenged devising a defensive game plan to face such a weak offense, which probably will be devoid of its best player, injured D'Andre Swift. Jared Goff has never been a cold weather quarterback. The Broncos have an excellent secondary and their pass rush has improved.

Anyway you cut it, the Giants are going to be terrible at QB with a choice of injured Daniel Jones, immobile journeyman Mike Glennon, or fourth-stringer Jake Fromm, who was on Buffalo's practice squad last week behind three other QB's.

The Giants are not in sync with their new offensive coordinator, Freddie Kitchens. They have a bad offensive line, a battered wide receiving corps and Saquan Barkley remains unproductive nowhere near his elite status before he suffered a serious knee injury last year.

New York is averaging 14.4 points in its last five games. The Giants' offense looks much better on paper than it really is.

The Chargers are dealing with COVID-19 problems that have struck their two best wideouts, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

Unlike their offense, the Giants are better defensively than perceived, giving up an average of 16 points during their last six games.