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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
10-13-19	Eagles v. Vikings -3		20-38	Win	100	95 h 23 m	Show
The Vikings are healthier and a better team than the Eagles right now. I also believe the Vikings' strong home field is worth more than the standard three points. So this line is short. Minnesota is 15-5 SU and ATS the last 20 times when laying five points or less at home. Kirk Cousins does his best work against bad teams and crippled secondaries. The Eagles have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Cousins has a strong history versus Philadelphia, too, with a 101.2 career passer rating that includes 17 TD passes in eight games. The Eagles have to respect Dalvin Cook. So the Vikings are balanced and should have no problem moving the ball. Not so with the Eagles. Carson Wentz hasn't been sharp so far this season and he's squaring off on the road against an elite defense.
10-13-19	Bengals +12.5 v. Ravens	Top	17-23	Win	100	96 h 45 m	Show
As bad as the Bengals are, the Ravens aren't nearly good enough to lay this big of a number in a division matchup. The Ravens' defense has surrendered 96 points in its last three games. They rank 29th in pass defense and are down several key members in their secondary, including Jimmy Smith and Tony Jefferson. It's become obvious how much Baltimore misses former defensive stalwarts Terrell Suggs and C.J. Mosley, both of whom departed via free agency. The Bengals have proven to be a feisty underdog covering five of the past six times in that role. They nearly beat Seattle and Buffalo straight-up on the road this season. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS during its last five visits to Baltimore. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games and are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they have been favored. Their heavy reliance on running the ball makes them an especially poor choice to lay double-digits.
10-12-19	San Jose State v. Nevada -120	Top	38-41	Win	100	38 h 47 m	Show
Just like the stock market it's best to buy low and sell high. This is a case of buying low with Nevada Reno. The Wolf Pack are at low ebb following a humiliating 54-3 home loss to Hawaii in their last game. That was two weeks ago. The Wolf Pack have been idle since. Nevada is itching for redemption. The Wolf Pack are 7-2 ATS following a bye. San Jose State is a surprising 3-2. The Spartans don't bring many fans to their road games and Nevada is a tough place for visiting teams. Just ask Purdue, which had a healthy starting QB and superstar WR Rondale Moore when it fell to the Wolf Pack in Reno earlier this season. The Wolf Pack have changed starting QB's. It's time for the Malik Henry era. The heavily recruited prep superstar Henry will be making his first college start for Nevada after originally signing with Florida State. The Spartans remain vulnerable defensively ranking 107th in total defense. They have one of the worst run defenses in the nation. Nevada's record and statistics are skewed because of blowout losses to Hawaii and Oregon. The Wolf Pack should fare much better against San Jose State especially at home where they have covered eight of the last nine times when hosting the Spartans.
10-12-19	BYU -4 v. South Florida		23-27	Loss	-110	21 h 53 m	Show
If BYU wants to have a realistic bowl shot it can't stumble here. The Cougars have lost consecutive games to Washington and Toledo on the road. There is no shame in losing to those two teams especially drawing the Rockets in Toledo. There would be tremendous shame, though, if the Cougars were to get upset by South Florida. I don't see that happening, though, even with BYU starting QB Zach Wilson out with a broken thumb. The Cougars had a needed bye last week. Redshirt freshman QB Jaren Hall should be prepared. He's facing a Bulls squad that yields nearly 30 points a game ranking 93rd in scoring defense. BYU is bigger and has the more mature athletes. The Cougars have proven themselves with victories against Southern Cal and Tennessee. This has become a crucial game for the Cougars so their concentration, level of urgency and motivation should be there.
10-12-19	Toledo v. Bowling Green UNDER 66		7-20	Win	100	18 h 46 m	Show
Bowling Green excels in one thing - going Under the total. The Falcons have gone Under in nine of their last 10 games. I'm going to ride that trend here especially considering the weather conditions. The forecast is for wind in the 16 mph range with gusts possibly getting up to 28 mph. Bowling Green ranks 128th in scoring at 14.6 points a game. Toledo isn't likely to be passing much or playing up-temp once it builds a huge lead, which is what the Rockets are projected to do. The Under has cashed five of the last six times these teams have met at Bowling Green. The Under also has cashed in nine of the last 12 overall meetings between the two schools.
10-11-19	Virginia +2.5 v. Miami-FL	Top	9-17	Loss	-110	32 h 60 m	Show
Give me Virgina, the superior team that is on extra rest and taking points here. The Cavaliers have had two weeks to stew about their last game, a disappointing 35-20 loss to 10th-ranked Notre Dame. Virginia has an excellent dual threat QB in Bryce Perkins and a strong defense that ranks second in sacks with 24 and is 10th in total defense. I like Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall especially with extra prep time. Miami is on short rest having played last Saturday. The Hurricanes exerted a lot of energy in a valiant comeback from a four-touchdown deficit to lose, 42-35, to Virginia Tech. If you discount their game against non Division I opponent Bethune Cookman, the Hurricanes have been outscored on the season. The Hurricanes will be starting redshirt sophomore QB N'Kosi Perry. It's his first start for Miami this season. The Cavaliers defeated a better Miami team last season, 16-13, at home. The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS against opponents with a winning record. Virginia has covered in its last four visits to Miami.
10-09-19	Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 71	Top	17-7	Win	100	10 h 59 m	Show
This is a huge Sun Belt Conference matchup. Both teams have outstanding offenses, hence the high total. But series history and the Ragin' Cajuns defense should not be overlooked. Lafayette is giving up an average of 17.2 points in its last four games. The Under has cashed five of the past six times in the series, including last season when just 49 points were scored. Both teams like to run, which should eat clock, too.
10-07-19	Browns +4 v. 49ers	Top	3-31	Loss	-115	118 h 47 m	Show
Burying the Ravens on the road last Sunday was huge for the Browns. Both from a confidence standpoint and also to reinforce their high talent level. Cleveland achieved that victory despite missing its starting cornerbacks, Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams. Both could return here. The 49ers can't match the Browns' skill position talent of Bakery Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb. Cleveland's offensive line has been a weak spot. But the 49ers are minus their top offensive lineman with left tackle Joe Staley out with a leg injury. Myles Garrett, who is in the argument for being the best pass rusher in the AFC, could be in line for a huge game. The 49ers are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games since making the move to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. They haven't covered as home chalk in five years. I respect Kyle Shanahan. I think the 49ers are much improved. But they are not a playoff contender. Cleveland is. The Browns are the superior team catching points. The 49ers have a weak home field. So getting points is a nice bonus.
10-07-19	Browns v. 49ers OVER 47	Top	3-31	Loss	-109	21 h 13 m	Show
The Browns' offense has shown signs of getting in gear coming off a 40-point performance against the Ravens last week. Baker Mayfield has two of the best at their respective positions in wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and running back Nick Chubb. It's a plus for the Browns and Over that Jarvis Landry should be able to play. The 49ers' defense is improved, but still striving to turn the corner. San Francisco has been fortunate so far to draw the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay's first game under new coach Bruce Arians, a weak Bengals offense and a Steelers offense that had Mason Rudolph behind center instead of Ben Roethlisberger. Cleveland's defense could be missing its starting cornerbacks as both Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward are injured. It's alarming that the Browns defense surrendered 43 points to Tennessee. The Titans have scored a combined 55 points in their four other games. San Francisco's offense is getting dangerous with Jimmy Garoppolo getting the rust off behind offensive guru Kyle Shanahan's well-designed plays. The 49ers have three solid running backs, underrated wide receivers and a top-two tight end in George Kittle. Shanahan has had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. Note, too, that this will be Jerome Boger's crew who will be doing the officiating. Boger is infamous for his frequent defensive holding calls. The Over has covered 59 percent of the time in Boger's 164 games.
10-06-19	Packers v. Cowboys UNDER 47		34-24	Loss	-109	90 h 5 m	Show
Aaron Rodgers produced a typical Rodgersesq game last Thursday against the Eagles. He was going against a battered Eagles secondary, though, and that game was an exception to how Green Bay's offense has performed this year. Matt LaFleuer has largely hijacked the Packers' offense with his commitment to run the ball more even though this isn't Green Bay's strength. Green Bay's offense has mostly struggled against the two elite defenses it has faced, Chicago and Minnesota, scoring an average of 15.5 points versus those two teams. Dallas' defense also is very good ranking third in fewest points given up. The Cowboys have four premier defenders in pass rusher DeMarcus Lawrence, cornerback Byron Jones and linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith. The Packers could be without their top playmaker Davante Adams and right tackle Byron Bulaga, who has been the Packers' best offensive lineman this season. The Packers have one of the most improved defenses in the NFL. Their secondary is above average now due to upgraded safety play. The additions of Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith have improved their pass rush. Their run defense should be better now that underrated defensive lineman Montravius Adams is expected to play after missing the past two games. Adams is the reason the Packers felt strong enough to cut Mike Daniels. The Cowboys aren't going to do anything fancy. They are going to pound away with Ezekiel Elliott and play ball control keeping Rodgers off the field as much as possible.
10-06-19	Vikings -4.5 v. Giants		28-10	Win	100	140 h 28 m	Show
Daniel Jones has provided a spark to the Giants. Since he replaced Eli Manning, the Giants have gone 2-0. Those victories, though, were against the Buccaneers and Redskins. Now Jones has to step way up in class and face an elite defense, the Vikings. Jones doesn't have much skill position support either with Saquan Barkley out. The Vikings are in an angry mood after losing to the Bears last week. Don't think for an instant the Giants defense is any good just because they held the impotent Redskins to three points this past Sunday. Kirk Cousins has a history of playing better versus weaker competition. Look for the Vikings to open things up more, too, against the Giants making better use of star wideouts Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs to go with the dangerous Dalvin Cook in the backfield. The Giants are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Vikings are at least two levels higher than the Giants and should win by double-digits.
10-06-19	Jets +14.5 v. Eagles		6-31	Loss	-135	87 h 5 m	Show
I'll take two touchdowns with the Jets figuring neither Sam Darnold nor C.J. Mosley, their best defensive player, are going to play. Mosley is surely out at least another week. It's a huge plus if Darnold can play. But I'm fine with Luke Falk under center at this high of a point spread. The Eagles have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. They could be down their three best cornerbacks. They also are missing two defensive linemen and star defensive end Fletcher Cox is dealing with a foot aliment. So he might be out, too, or extremely hobbled if he does play. The Jets do get back defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, who is projected to be the best rookie defensive lineman in the NFL. Falk is who he is - a desperation third-stringer with limited talent. But at least now he's had time to work with the Jets' first-string offense. Adam Gase should be able to coach him up especially with the Jets coming off a bye. Falk has decent wide receivers and a workhorse running back, Le'Veon Bell, who also is one of the better pass-receiving running back. The Eagles go on the road for three straight away games following this matchup taking on the Vikings, Cowboys and Bills. They don't want to have to exert or show too much against this lowly non-division opponent. They will be happy just to get a win and get healthy.
10-06-19	Bills v. Titans -2		14-7	Loss	-110	87 h 52 m	Show
The Bills had great anticipation and hope before last Sunday's game against the Patriots. Those were dashed when the Bills' offense couldn't produce anything and Josh Allen got hurt. I respect the heck out of Buffalo's defense, but they are a deflated team this week and forced to go with journeyman backup QB Matt Barkley. Allen isn't accurate. Neither is Barkley. Allen was a running threat, however, and could make a big play. Barkley can't run, nor produce big plays. The Titans are a solid team that could be feared if Marcus Mariota is able to step up his game. Mariota showed signs of doing that last week. He has a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio and his pass protection was the best it has been all season last Sunday against the Falcons. The Bills' defense is much more physical and superior to the Falcons. The Titans, though, get their best offensive lineman, left tackle Taylor Lewan, back from suspension. Tennessee has edges at all the skill positions as the Bills can't match Derrick Henry in the backfield, nor Corey Davis at wide receiver.
10-06-19	Bears -4 v. Raiders	Top	21-24	Loss	-110	141 h 45 m	Show
The Raiders are 2-8 in their road games under Jon Gruden. They have been outscored by 130 points in those games. Statistically, the Patriots have the best defense in the NFL. But considering the caliber of opponents the Patriots have played compared to the Bears, I would go with the Bears being the No. 1 defensive team. I can't see the Raiders putting up many points here even if the Bears are minus Roquan Smith and Akiem Hicks. Khalil Mack is sure to be fired-up playing against his former team. I actually like the Bears' offense more with Chase Daniel at QB instead of Mitch Trubisky. Daniel is the more polished, experienced and accurate passer. He doesn't have to do anything fancy just play with in his means for the Bears to roll past the Raiders. Minnesota buried the Raiders, 34-14, at home two weeks ago. The Bears just got done defeating the Vikings. This marks Oakland's third straight away contest. The game is being played in London, but time-wise it comes out to be a morning game for the Raiders. The Raiders are 1-6 SU and ATS the past seven times on the road during an early start time.
10-05-19	UMass v. Florida International -26	Top	0-44	Win	100	48 h 47 m	Show
UMass won its first game of the season last week beating Akron at home as a 9 1/2-point underdog, 37-29. The Minutemen are terrible, though, and I want to fade them off that victory. UMass had lost its previous four games by 34 points to Coastal Carolina, by 35 points to Charlotte, by 25 points to Southern Illinois and by 27 points to Rutgers. Florida International was idle last week. The Golden Panthers have covered the past four times following a bye. They are 3-0 under Butch Davis after a bye. The Golden Panthers can't slip here if they want to have a realistic shot of a bowl bid. Davis has stressed that to his team. James Morgan looked good for Florida International in a loss to Louisiana Tech going 29-for-41 with 394 yards passing and three touchdowns in its last game. Morgan had been out with an ankle injury. Morgan entered the season as one of the better QB's in Conference USA. UMass is starting third-stringer Michael Curtis at QB. The Minutemen are in rebuild mode starting seven true freshmen, most of any FBS team. UMass ranks 115th in yards gained and is second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed and points given up.
10-05-19	Troy v. Missouri OVER 67		10-42	Loss	-110	14 h 27 m	Show
Missouri is averaging more than 38 points a game. The Tigers should easily exceed that number after being idle last week and taking on a bad Sun Belt defense in Troy. Missouri QB Kellen Mond is in line for a huge game as the Trojans rank 125th in pass defense. The Over has cashed each of the past five times Missouri has played following a bye week. Troy, though, can put up its share of points. The Trojans rank 12th in the nation in yards and 16th in scoring at 40.8 points a game. Both teams play up-tempo and fast, which is excellent for the Over.
10-05-19	Air Force v. Navy UNDER 45		25-34	Loss	-110	100 h 12 m	Show
Lots of running here between these two rare option-attack, ground-oriented teams. That's great for the Under. Air Force is averaging fewer than nine passes per game this season. Navy has thrown just 20 passes in its past two games. Another big key to a low-scoring game is each team plays stout run defense. Air Force has the 18th-best rush defense, while Navy ranks 14th in stopping the run. The Under has cashed in six of Air Force's last seven nonconference games. This is a huge rivalry matchup so intensity should be way up. The Under has cashed six of the past seven times the schools have met, including last season.
10-05-19	Baylor +2.5 v. Kansas State		31-12	Win	100	45 h 32 m	Show
I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer much more than Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson. Brewer is one of the more underrated QB's in college football. He has yet to throw an interception and has connected on 66 percent of his throws while accounting for 10 touchdowns. The Bears rank No. 2 in the Big 12 in run defense and scoring defense. They haven't yielded more than 21 points in a game. The Wildcats don't have the weapons Baylor has. The Bears can just concentrate on Kansas State running back James Gilbert. Denzel Mims gives Baylor the most dynamic player on the field. The Wildcats were exposed by Oklahoma State last week suffering their first loss, 26-3, after winning their first three games. Kansas State surrendered 526 yards in that loss. The Wildcats lack a pass rush and aren't good at stopping the run either. I have less respect for the Wildcats now that Bill Snyder isn't their head coach anymore.
10-05-19	Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 53		13-24	Loss	-115	14 h 60 m	Show
Marshall can run the ball ranking 37th in the country in rushing. MIddle Tennessee State is weak stopping the run ranking 127th. The Blue Raiders have a bad defense all the way around surrendering 40 or more points in three of their four games. The Blue Raiders have played a very difficult schedule, however, taking on Michigan, Iowa and Duke. They are better offensively than what they have shown due to the competition. QB Asher O'Hara has completed better than 70 percent of his throws with an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Marshall ranks 111th in pass defense.
10-03-19	Temple v. East Carolina UNDER 48	Top	27-17	Win	100	17 h 9 m	Show
East Carolina has played five games under new head coach Mike Houston. Each game has gone Under the total. Will this one break the Under streak? I say no. I thought QB Holton Ahlers would be a lot better for the Pirates. But he hasn't. Ahlers has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and his downfield throws have lacked accuracy. Temple has surrendered only one touchdown pass all season. The Owls give up just 17.2 points per game. They just defeated Georgia Tech, 24-2, last week. East Carolina has held its last two foes, William & Mary and Old Dominion, to an average of 14 points. Temple QB Anthony Russo has been picked off four times in the last two games. Russo has thrown at least one interception in all four of Temple's games. He completed just 9-of-22 passes against Georgia Tech. Note temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s in Greenville with extremely high humidity. So that could take a toll on the players.
09-30-19	Bengals v. Steelers -3	Top	3-27	Win	100	18 h 49 m	Show
This matchup has lost much of its star power with no Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and A.J. Green. It's going to be decided in the trenches - and that's where the Steelers hold a monster edge to go with home field and the mental confidence of having defeated Cincinnati eight straight times. The Bengals can't run the ball, nor stop the run. That's a very bad combination especially when playing Pittsburgh on the road. The Bengals are last in the NFL in rushing and second from the bottom in run defense. The Steelers aren't going to be fancy here. They don't need to be. Mason Rudolph should play better in his second NFL start and first at home. He doesn't need to play great, just steady behind a very good offensive line. Pittsburgh defense will be fired up. It played very well at San Francisco last week. Rookie Devin Bush gives the Steelers' needed linebacker speed that they haven't had since Ryan Shazier was injured. Andy Dalton needs weapons to succeed. Instead he's saddled with a bottom-five offensive line. Bad offensive lines don't travel well. Cincinnati has lost its last seven away matchups.
09-29-19	Cowboys -134 v. Saints		10-12	Loss	-134	96 h 55 m	Show
The Cowboys held the Saints to 10 points last season - when New Orleans had Drew Brees at QB. Teddy Bridgewater is a massive downgrade. Dallas is giving up fewer than 15 points per game this season. Bridgewater is not a downfield threat and doesn't have the mobility he once possessed. The Cowboys have the athletic and quick linebackers needed to contain Alvin Kamara and Bridgewater's short passing game. Dallas is well balanced and the healthier team. Dak Prescott is playing the best of his NFL career. The Cowboys rank fourth in scoring averaging 32.3 points. If the Saints load the box to stop Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott can beat them through the air. Dallas is much more dangerous offensively with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore calling the shots. The Saints are overrated at home where they have failed to cover in their past five games at the Superdome. They also are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall games. Dallas is the superior team right now on both sides of the ball. It shouldn't be too much to ask the Cowboys to beat the Brees-less Saints.
09-29-19	Jaguars v. Broncos -3		26-24	Loss	-115	92 h 18 m	Show
At 0-3 the Broncos are in desperation mode. The Jaguars are sure to get the Broncos' top effort. Denver is especially tough at home early in the season when opponents aren't in shape to deal with high altitude. The Broncos are 13-1 during their last 14 September home games. The Broncos' defense is better than it has showed. I'm not buying any Minshew Mania. Gardner Minshew is far more game manager than gunslinger. He needs to heavily lean on Leonard Fournette, who is having a disappointing season so far. Forget, too, about Jacksonville returning to its playoff ways of two seasons ago. The Jaguars are more like last season's 5-11 team. Their offense lacks a downfield attack, Fournette may be in the wrong system and the defense isn't as dominant as last year missing some key players, including linebacker Telvin Smith. It's not a fluke the Jaguars have dropped 12 of their past 15 games while going 4-9-2 ATS during this span. They just aren't very good.
09-29-19	Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 47.5		27-10	Loss	-110	14 h 2 m	Show
Russell Wilson is a magician and he's having another magical season with the third-highest passer rating and a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wilson squares off against an equal opportunity Cardinals defense that can't stop the run nor the pass. Arizona ranks among the bottom-four in yards allowed and points per game surrendering nearly 30 a game. The Seahawks are down defensively from previous years particularly in the secondary where the Legion of Boom no longer exists. Kyler Murray has transformed Arizona's offense. He's the perfect QB for the Cardinals because of his quickness and nimbleness, which masks his team's offensive line weaknesses. I expect Kliff Kingsbury to begin opening the playbook more for Murray especially being at home. David Johnson is an elite runner due for a bust out performance and Larry Fitzgerald is relevant again thanks to Murray and the Cardinals' much improved offense.
09-29-19	Browns +7.5 v. Ravens		40-25	Win	100	11 h 58 m	Show
Yes, the Browns were the most overhyped team entering the season. Now, though, the pendulum has swung too far the other way. The Browns aren't as bad as they've looked. This is a step down for the Browns after they played the Rams last week. Baltimore nipped Cleveland, 26-24, at home last season. The Browns are far more talented this season. It's taken a while, but I see Baker Mayfield and his talented skill position players putting the pieces together in this matchup. The Ravens' defense down is from a year ago and they have multiple injuries in their secondary. Mayfield will be able to spot open receivers. The Ravens are at their worst in the role of home favorite, too, where they are 1-7 ATS the past eight times, including failing to cover the last four times as home chalk. Baltimore is the most run-oriented team in the league. They are not built to cover margins like this especially in a huge division game.
09-29-19	Panthers v. Texans OVER 47	Top	16-10	Loss	-109	91 h 4 m	Show
Take away his legs and Cam Newton isn't a very good quarterback. I would agrue Carolina's offense is set up better with Kyle Allen at quarterback. Allen gets the start again this week after lighting up the Cardinals defense for four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 38-20 road win last Sunday. Allen is surrounded by playmakers. Christian McCaffrey is the best all-purpose back in the league. DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel are underrated speed weapons and Greg Olsen still is an effective pass-catching tight end. He had excellent rapport with Allen against the Cardinals catching six passes and scoring two touchdowns. This will be Allen's third NFL start. He led the Panthers to 33 points in his starting debut during Week 17 last season. Houston's pass defense ranks 23rd. The Texans have slow cornerbacks making them vulnerable to Moore and Samuel. The Panthers' defense hasn't improved as some were expecting. Defensive linemen Gerald McCoy looks old and Kawann Short missed last week with a shoulder injury. He's questionable this week. The Texans are averaging 30.1 in their last six regular season games discouting matchups against the Jaguars. Deshaun Watson is an upper level QB and DeAndre Hopkins could be the top wideout in the NFL. Both of these teams rank in the top-10, too, in pace. So this should be a fast tempo game, a strong plus for the Over.
09-28-19	SMU v. South Florida +8		48-21	Loss	-108	26 h 40 m	Show
South Florida has improved since switching to redshirt freshman QB Jordan McCloud. But a big reason for this handicap is a go-against SMU off its great win against rival TCU and to fade Sonny Dykes, one of my least favorite coaches. The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS the last eight times facing a below .500 opponent. South Florida was blown out 49-0 by Wisconsin in its opener. That loss doesn't look quite as bad considering the unbeaten Badgers just blew out Michigan. The Bulls then covered a road game at Georgia Tech, losing 14-10, and then buried South Carolina State at home two weeks ago, 55-16. McCloud accounted for five TD's in that victory. The Bulls were idle last week. So the Bulls will be rested and prepared while catching SMU off a big win. South Florida's defense is highly opportunistic tied for first in the country in forcing turnovers and fumbles recoverd.
09-28-19	USC v. Washington -10		14-28	Win	100	48 h 11 m	Show
I don't see USC defeating Utah and Washington in consecutive games. Aside from a strong passing attack, the Trojans aren't as good as Washington in every other area. The gap is especially huge on defense and coaching. Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 the past couple of years and that defense remains eite. The Huskies have a balanced attack. QB Jacob Eason, a transfer from Georgia, is getting better each week in Washington's system. The Trojans are going with third-string Matt Fink at quarterback because of injuries to JT Daniels and Kedon Slovis. This will be his first road start. The Huskies have a strong pass defense along with 10 sacks and four interceptions.
09-28-19	Northwestern +24.5 v. Wisconsin		15-24	Win	100	44 h 54 m	Show
Undefeated Wisconsin has outscored its three opponents, 145-14. The Badgers are off a smashing victory against Michigan last Saturday. All of this contributes to a very inflated line for this matchup. The Wildcats beat the Badgers by 14 points last season. Northwestern has played Wisconsin extremely tough during the last four years, winning twice and losing by 14 and nine points, respectively, in the other two games. Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald is one of the top 'dog coaches in the country. The Wildcats have covered 11 of the past 14 times they were road 'dogs. That strong record would be even more impressive, but the underdog Wildcats suffered a horrendous ATS bad beat in the closing seconds against Stanford in their opener on a safety with 20 seconds left. The Wildcats are 15-2 in their last 17 Big Ten games. One of those losses occurred to Michigan State by 21 points at home last week. That's another contributing factor explaining why this line is overinflated. Northwestern is 9-4 ATS following a defeat. They shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed by Michigan State. The Badgers, on the other hand, are fat and happy having steamrolled Michigan. They aren't going to be taking Northwestern as serious as they did the Wolverines.
09-28-19	Kansas v. TCU -14		14-51	Win	100	22 h 42 m	Show
Kansas is going to take TCU's best punch after the Horned Frogs suffered a humbling 41-38 loss to city rival SMU last weekend. TCU was 7 1/2-point favorites in that game. The loss knocked them out of the Top-25. Gary Patterson is a no nonsense coach. He's not going to screw around here. The Horned Frogs are going to pound away at Kansas, which could be missing its leading tackler, linebacker Dru Prox. Patterson will be reminding his squad about last season's game when the Jayhawks upset the Horned Frogs, 27-26, in Kansas. The Jayhawks are improved under new coach Les Miles. They have some good skill position players particularly at running back. But TCU owns the defensive edge and has a strong advantage in the trenches. This probably isn't going to be a pretty win, but in the end I see the Horned Frogs controlling clock and winning by more than two touchdowns.
09-28-19	Central Michigan +17 v. Western Michigan	Top	15-31	Win	100	26 h 13 m	Show
Central Michigan is much improved from last year's 1-11 season under new coach Jim McElwain. This improvement has come during the Chippewas' last two games, a 45-24 home win against Akron and a 17-12 road loss to Miami as a 30 1/2-point road 'dog. The Chippewas won the time of possession battle against the Hurricanes and held them to 1.6 yards rushing and 303 total yards. The Chippewas can control clock, too, versus Western Michigan in this Mid-American Conference rivalry matchup. Central Michigan's has found the right quarterback in David Moore. He's started the past two games and has accounted for 533 passing yards and three touchdowns, two via the air, with one interception. The Chippewas are not the same team that was steamrolled three weeks ago by powerful Wisconsin, 61-0, in Madison. Moore didn't start that game. These two teams are much closer than this spread. Western Michigan was hammered by a Big Ten, too, three weeks ago losing to Michigan State, 51-17. The Broncos lost to Syracuse, 52-33, as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs last Saturday. Western Michigan is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games. The Broncos will be without one of their key players, injured cornerback D'Wayne Eskridge. He also is sixth on the team in receiving yards. The Chippewas have covered nine of their last 13 games and have gone 4-1-1 ATS the past six times meeting the Broncos.
09-27-19	San Jose State v. Air Force -18	Top	24-41	Loss	-114	56 h 2 m	Show
San Jose State intercepted five passes from pass-crazy Arkansas in stunning the Razorbacks, 31-24, as 20-point road 'dogs this past Saturday. It was the first time the Spartans ever defeated an SEC foe and their first victory against any power conference opponent since 2006. You can count on one hand and be missing a finger to add up the number of times San Jose State has beaten a power conference team this century. Some of the San Jose players and coaches called it the greatest win in San Jose football history. Heady stuff for the Spartans. The school and the players celebrated in grand style with a campus rally on Monday. That's a rarity and a big deal at San Jose State. The Spartans had two wins the previous two years entering this season. Now, though, the Spartans have to travel into high altitude on a short week after returning 1,800 miles back to San Jose from Arkansas. They draw what should be an aroused Air Force team that lost to Boise State last Friday. The Falcons couldn't sustain their road victory against Colorado two weeks ago when they fell to Boise State. Now they are home again. The Spartans aren't coming up with five interceptions again. Air Force may not even throw the ball five times. The Falcons are the nation's fourth-leading rushing team. They are a physical, option-attack team that is well drilled and disciplined. It's a terrible matchup for San Jose coming off its great victory. The Falcons are tough defensively, too. Only 19 teams surrender fewer yards per game than Air Force.
09-26-19	Eagles v. Packers OVER 45	Top	34-27	Win	100	52 h 11 m	Show
The Eagles' defensive weaknesses are clear: Vulnerable secondary, just two sacks and down two defensive tackles. Aaron Rodgers should be in line for his biggest game of the season after facing three strong defenses - Bears, Vikings and Broncos. Rodgers hasn't been looking downfield as much as he has in previous seasons. That's partially the design of first-year head coach Matt LaFleur, who is trying to establish more of a run presence. But LaFleur can't be stupid enough not to encourage Rodgers to take advantage of the Eagles' 29th-ranked pass defense that has yielded seven TD passes in three games, including three TD passes and 380 yards to Case Keenum. Green Bay's defense is improved. No doubt there. It's quicker, faster and more athletic. But it's not as good as the early numbers may indicate. The Packers have been fortunate to open against these three QB's - Mitchchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. An above average quarterback can show that the Packers' defense is far from elite. The Eagles have that in Carson Wentz, who should get back his top wide receiver, Alshon Jeffery, from injury. The Packers' defense also carries a high fatigue rating even though it's early in the season. That's because Green Bay's defense was on the field for 73 plays against Denver this past Sunday as the Broncos won the time of possession battle, 35:34-24:26. So this being the Thursday game isn't doing the Packers' defense any favors.
09-22-19	Texans v. Chargers OVER 47.5		27-20	Loss	-110	133 h 16 m	Show
Expect a bounce back performance from Philip Rivers returning to LA after a tough game last week at Detroit. Austin Ekeler has proven he is more than capable of replacing Melvin Gordon even being a better pass-catcher out of the backfield. Deshaun Watson is due for a better game, too. The Texans are facing an easier defense than the Jaguars. Watson has all of his main receiving targets healthy. Both teams are vulnerable in the secondary. The Chargers are missing their starting safeties. They draw Watson after facing Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew during their first two games. That's a monster step up.
09-22-19	Saints +5.5 v. Seahawks		33-27	Win	100	133 h 13 m	Show
The Saints are getting a generous amont of points against a mediocre Seahawks squad because Drew Brees is out. Teddy Bridgewater, though, is one of the better backups in the league. Bridgewater gives the Saints a running dimension from the quarterback spot they lacked from Brees. He has excellent weapons with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas being among the best at their respective positions. Offensive mastermind Seay Payton can also coach Bridgewater up with a full week to prepare. The Seahawks were outgained by nearly 200 yards at home by the winless Bengals in Week 1, lucky to escape with a victory. Seattle then caught a break this past Sunday against the Steelers when Ben Roethilsberger couldn't go in the second due to an elbow injury. Seattle's home field isn't as dominant as before and the Legion of Boom is no more. Instead the Seahawks have an inexperienced and vulnerable secondary.
09-22-19	Steelers +8 v. 49ers		20-24	Win	100	133 h 12 m	Show
The Steelers are in must-win mode win at 0-2. The 49ers are in a letdown spot returning home after opening 2-0 with a pair of road victories. Those wins came against the Buccaneers and Bengals, though. Now the 49ers face their toughest opponent. The line is inflated because Ben Roethlisberger is out. He's replaced by Mason Rudolph. The Steelers have had bad backup quarterbacks before. Rudolph is a step above their previous second-string QB's. He was a star at Oklahoma State and looked good during preseason. The Steelers still have a good defense, an elite offensive line and solid weapons for Rudolph to succeed. San Francisco is much improved. But the 49ers still are not better than the Steelers even with the change from Roethlisberger to Rudolph. Their offense is a work-in-progress and they just lost offensive left tackle Joe Staley, who suffered a broken leng. The 49ers have holes on defense especially in the secondary. The Steelrs upgraded their secondary and showed to their fans they haven't given up on the season by trading a first-round pick for versatile defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick.
09-22-19	Ravens +7.5 v. Chiefs		28-33	Win	100	130 h 52 m	Show
The Ravens lost 27-24 in overtime to the Chiefs in Kansas City last season. That is their only loss during their past nine regular season games. The Ravens are itching for revenge and are better than they were last December when they met the Chiefs. The main reason for this is the emergence of Lamar Jackson as a legitimate dual threat quarterback. He has thrown the same number of touchdown passes as Patrick Mahomes this season. Jackson has upgraded weapons supporting hin and a better group of running backs. Baltimore also has the superior defense. The Chiefs are dealing with two key offensive injuries - wide receiver Tyreek Hill and left tackle Eric Fisher.
09-22-19	Raiders v. Vikings -7.5	Top	14-34	Win	100	130 h 54 m	Show
Jon Gruden doesn't fool me. The Raiders are bad on both sides of the ball. Just like last season. They lack skill position talent and their defense is bottom tier. The Raiders don't travel well either losing 15 of their last 17 road/neutral sites matchups going 3-13-1 ATS in those games. The Vikings have one of the best home fields in football covering 70 percent of their last 54 home games. Note this is an early start time, too. Bad news for the West Coast Raiders. Dalvin Cook is a premier running back. If the Raiders load the box to stop him they become vulnerable to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. The Vikings are hungry for a win after losing to the Packers last week.
09-21-19	Georgia State v. Texas State OVER 63.5		34-37	Win	100	70 h 13 m	Show
Georgia State gives up 43 points a game, ranking 127th in scoring defense. The Panthers are off a 57-10 loss to Western Michigan where they yielded 694 yards. The Panthers, though, have a decent offense that is balanced. They average 32 points a game. QB Dan Ellington has an 8-to-1 TD-to-Interception ratio and is the Panthers' No. 2 rusher. Texas State is horrible defensively, too. The Bobcats just gave up 47 points and 639 yards to SMU. This is the spot where the Bobcats' offense really could show something under coach Jake Spavital, who has a reputation as a quarterback guru. The Bobcats rank 37th passing and Georgia State is a team they can run on. The Over has cashed in four of the last five meetings between the two teams.
09-21-19	New Mexico State v. New Mexico UNDER 71		52-55	Loss	-110	43 h 47 m	Show
New Mexico State can't hold up its end with a total this large. The Aggies have scored a combined 27 points in three games going against Washington State, Alabama and San Diego State. Yes, New Mexico is a drop-off, but this also is a rivalry game. The Aggies averaged just 371 yards and 25 points last season. So far this seaso they are averaging 302.7 yards and nine points a game. New Mexico State QB Josh Adkins is heavily turnover-prone. The Aggies will try to establish a ground attack for the first time. They should stick with it for a while because they are stepping down in class. New Mexico's offense has been down since the second half of last season. During their past eight games versus FBS opponents, the Lobos have failed to break 24 points in any game. They are averaging 15.2 points in these games. Their head coach, Bob Davie, is out another week recuperating from a health issue. None of the previous four matchups between these two teams during the last four years reached a combined 70 points. This one shouldn't either.
09-21-19	Washington -6 v. BYU		45-19	Win	100	52 h 6 m	Show
Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 for the past four years and this year's defense is right up there, too. The Huskies have a powerful offensive line, a balanced attack and Georgia transfer QB Jacob Eason has taken command of Chris Peterson's Washington offense. He looked good in the Huskies' 52-20 home win against Hawaii last week. The Huskies are similar to Utah and the Utes hammered BYU, 30-12, at BYU. The Cougars rebounded from that defeat by coming up with upset victories at Tennessee and home against USC. Both of those games went overtime. BYU was outgained in each of those games, but won the turnover battle. Washington knows how to take care of the ball. Washington rolled over BYU, 35-7, last season.
09-21-19	Louisville v. Florida State -6.5	Top	24-35	Win	100	47 h 50 m	Show
With just a one-point overtime victory against Louisiana Monroe, Florida State is desperate for a victory. The Seminoles are 1-2, but could be 3-0 having blown fourth-quarter leads against Virginia and Boise State. Florida State has the athletes and talent especially on offense. James Blackman has come through at quarterback and Cam Akers is one of the best running backs in the country. Scott Satterfield is doing a good job in his first season at Louisville. But he has a major rebuild job to do. The Cardinals are coming off easy wins against two overmatched opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky. This is a step-up game for the Cardinals and it's also an off-surface for them. While I think the Cardinals are improved and on the right track under Satterfield, I don't see them staying within a touchdown of highly motivated Florida State.
09-21-19	Michigan +3.5 v. Wisconsin		14-35	Loss	-110	64 h 44 m	Show
Michigan has been pointing to this matchup since before the season. The Wolverines haven't looked sharp in beating Middle Tennessee and Army. They also purposely haven't shown too much. The Badgers have outscored their two opponents, 110-0. Those two foes, though, were Central Michigan and South Florida. Wisconsin still doesn't have a good quarterback. If this game would have been the season opener for both teams Michigan would have been favored. Playing option-oriented Army is a good thing for Michigan in its preparation against the ground-and-pound Badgers. Look for the Wolverines to load the box daring Wisconsin QB Jack Coan to beat them, which he can't. Wisconsin faced two weak defenses. The Badgers are not properly battle-tested for Michigan's elite athleticism and size. Note, too, the Badgers are 1-8 ATS following a victory.
09-20-19	Utah -3.5 v. USC	Top	23-30	Loss	-103	75 h 31 m	Show
If USC's Clay Helton isn't the worst head football coach in a major conference than he's certainly in the discussion for that dubious distinction. The Trojans are 7-19-1 ATS (27 percent) in their last 27 games. Utah defeated USC, 41-28, last year with the score not fully indicative of how much the Utes dominated. Utah built a 34-14 lead, had 17 more first downs and nearly 350 more yards than USC. The Utes have the two best skill position players on the field in QB Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, one of the best running backs in the nation. The Trojans are starting freshman Kedon Slovis at quarterback due to injuries and transfers. Slovis had a passer rating of just 54 and was picked off three times in a road overtime loss to BYU this past Saturday. Utah met BYU in its opener and won, 30-12, on the road. The unbeaten Utes have covered 12 of their last 17 road matchups.
09-19-19	Houston +5.5 v. Tulane	Top	31-38	Loss	-110	33 h 33 m	Show
I'm not buying into any Tulane hype, or that the Green Wave should be a favorite against Houston. The Cougars have one of the top dual threat QB's in the nation in D'Eriq King, who accounted for 50 touchdowns last season and is getting more comfortable operating Dana Holgorsen's offense. Tulane's Justin McMillan is better than some past Tulane QB's and he has a deep group of running backs and wide receivers. But King has plenty of help, too, especially with the return of running back Patrick Carr. Tulane just played Missouri State this past Saturday. That was a cupcake opponent. Houston's statistics are skewed, especially defensively, by having already played high-powered fourth-ranked Oklahoma and 19th-ranked Washington State. So this is a drop in class for the Cougars, who covered against both of those Top-25 opponents. The Cougars rolled past Tulane, 48-17, at home last season. The Cougars were favored by seven in that game. During the previous four seasons from 2014-2017, the Cougars were favored by eight, 27, 21 and 17 points against Tulane. Houston has covered in six of its last seven trips to Tulane. Now the Green Wave not only is expected to beat the Cougars but cover a mid-size margin doing it. I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid.
09-16-19	Browns -140 v. Jets	Top	23-3	Win	100	129 h 1 m	Show
I played this game early in the week before Sam Darnold was ruled out so was able to take a great money line price. I still like the Browns at the changed number, but not enough to recommend a max wager. The Browns are far from a complete team. But they have less warts than the Jets and should enter this nationally televised matchup humble, motivated and ready to prove the preseason hype about them is justified after they were embarrassed by the Titans at home this past Sunday. Baker Mayfield gives the Browns a monster talent edge at QB. The Jets defense fell apart against the Bills after losing linebacker C.J. Mosley. The Browns' offense is far superior to Buffalo's. Mosley, the Jets' defensive leader, and defensive lineman Quinnen Williams are both out. The Jets already are down injured linebacker Avery Williamson. Those are three significant defensive injuries for the Jets. Both team's have protection problems. But the Jets also have a weak secondary and lack a pass rush. Cleveland's Myles Garrett is one of the pass rushers in the NFL. He is my choice to lead the NFL in sacks this season.
09-15-19	Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders	Top	28-10	Win	100	44 h 45 m	Show
Credit to the Raiders for beating Denver in Week 1. Jon Gruden had a good game plan and his defense played hard. But now the Raiders go from Joe Flacco, who I rank with Eli Manning as the worst starting QB in the NFL, to the best, Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders defense is porous and they are now without injured safety Johnathan Abram. The Chiefs should have no problem moving the ball up and down on the Raiders. They don't need Tyreek Hill against such a weak caliber defense. Kansas City averaged 37.5 points against the Raider last season with Mahomes throwing for six touchdowns and averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. Oakland isn't going to be able to keep up with Kansas City. Derek Carr is just a glorified dink-and-dunker. I'm not impressed with his skill position weapons either with Antonio Brown having left. Carr has been picked off nine times in his career by the Chiefs. The Raiders are missing their starting guards. They are one of the few teams that could make the Chiefs defense look good.
09-15-19	Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 49		43-0	Win	100	44 h 29 m	Show
New England has its best defense in years. The Dolphins have the lowest paid and probably worst offensive line in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a better backup than starting QB and Miami is below average at running back and at the receiver spots. So the Dolphins don't figure to put up many points. The Patriots aren't going to show much. There's no need for them to tip their hand against such a weak foe. The Patriots have been double-digit road favorites six times since 2015. The Under has won each team. The weather is going to be brutally hot with temperatures reaching the low 100's and high humidity. This is a game the Patriots should be satisfied to sit on a lead and get their reserves in early so as not to risk an injury to a frontline player especially since they already are missing two offensive line starters.
09-15-19	Patriots v. Dolphins +19.5		43-0	Loss	-110	44 h 26 m	Show
I understand the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL. But this number is an overreaction to what happened in Week 1 when the Dolphins were blown out by the Ravens and the Patriots crushed the Steelers in the Sunday Night nationally televised game. The early number on this game, according to the oddsmakers at the Westgate, was Patriots minus 11. Until that battering by the Ravens, the Dolphins had not lost a September home game since 2015. This is the weakest Miami team in a long time, but motivation, home field and New England offensive line injuries and state of mind counter the Patriots' huge talent and coaching edge. The Patriots have had trouble at this venue losing five of the past six times they have played at Miami. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS the past seven times hosting New England. The Patriots are without two of their best offensive linemen with center David Andrews and right tackle Marcus Cannon out. The Patriots aren't going to put Tom Brady at risk with some wide open attack when they don't need to do that to win this game. There also is no reason for the Patriots to show anything in this game. A simple, vanilla game plan featuring lots of running is what the Patriots are likely to do. The heat is going to be brutal with temperatures reaching triple digits and high humidity. Bill Belichick isn't likely to run up a score against the Dolphins, who are coached by Brian Flores. Flores was a defensive assistant to Belichick before taking the Dolphins job. The Dolphins will be taking this matchup far more serious than the Patriots because of Flores' former close association with the Patriots and also to get some redemption from last week's horror show. This is going to be Miami's Super Bowl.
09-15-19	Jaguars +9.5 v. Texans		12-13	Win	100	40 h 25 m	Show
This is more than just a division game, but a real rivalry. It remains to be seen just how much of a dropoff there is between Nick Foles and rookie Gardner Minshew. Foles has mostly been a backup in his career, although a top-notch one. Minshew demonstrated tremendous poise in replacing Foles against the Chiefs last Sunday completing 22 of 25 passes for 275 with two touchdowns and one interception. The Jaguars are run-oriented. Leonard Fournette is their featured player not the quarterback. Minshew has underrated wide receivers. He just has to manage this game, though, for the Jaguars to hang in. The Jaguars have an upper level defense. They were sixth in defensive efficiency last season. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is one of the few who can hang against DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans are playing on a short week after an exhausting road game against the Saints this past Monday night. The Texans have not shored up their porous pass protection particularly at right tackle. Deshaun Watson was sacked six times by New Orleans and endured 11 hits. The Jaguars have held Watson to two touchdown passes in three games and just 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The Jaguars also have recorded 21 sacks in their last four games against the Texans.
09-15-19	Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5	Top	28-26	Loss	-110	116 h 25 m	Show
I want the Steelers at home going for me in this spot. Pittsburgh laid an egg at New England on national television this past Sunday night. Ben Roethlisberger has a strong history of playing much better at home. The Steelers' offensive line is elite. James Connor and JuJu Smith-Schuster are more than adequate replacements from the departed Le'Veon Bell and prima donna Antonio Brown. Seattle is down this season. The Seahawks were life and death to beat a bad Bengals team at home opening week. Seattle is 3-6 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season during the past four plus years. The Seahawks are down because they no longer have their fabled Legion of Boom secondary. All of those guys are gone. Their best defensive lineman, Jarran Reed, is suspended. Seattle is a ground-and-pound team. That style isn't going to work on the road against the Steelers, who won't lack motivation after last Sunday's humiliation to the Patriots. Pittsburgh ranked sixth in run defense and were tied for first in sacks last season. Russell Wilson lost his top wide receiver with Doug Baldwin retiring.
09-14-19	Texas State v. SMU OVER 58		17-47	Win	100	120 h 57 m	Show
Sonny Dykes is one of my least favorite college coaches. But you know with Dykes you're going to get a lot of passing, fast pace and not much defense even if some talent is there. SMU is averaging 43 points, while surrendering 28.5 points. Mustangs QB Shane Buechele is doing a good job operating Dykes' up-tempo attack and has two excellent receivers in James Proche and Reggie Roberson Jr. The gem about going above this total, though, is Texas State being well below the radar as far as having a good offense. The Bobcats have managed just 21 points in two games taking on Texas A&M on the road and Wyoming. They were the lowest-scoring team in the Sun Belt Conference last year. However, the Bobcats have brought in a pair of excellent offensive minds this season - head coach Jake Spavital and offensive coordinator Bob Stitt. They like an up-tempo style, too. The Bobcats had 444 yards against Wyoming, but were hurt by three turnovers. QB Gresch Jensen threw 54 passes against the Cowboys picking up nearly 400 yards through the air.
09-14-19	Southern Miss v. Troy OVER 49		47-42	Win	100	30 h 50 m	Show
Troy has a strong offense. Southern Mississippi's defense is down from a year ago. The Golden Eagles are more experienced offensively this season and QB Jack Abrahma is a high percentage quarterback. The Over has cashed in seven of Troy's last nine games. The Over also has won at a 70 percent rate during the Trojans' last 57 nonconference games.
09-14-19	Miami-OH v. Cincinnati UNDER 49.5		13-35	Win	100	24 h 57 m	Show
Pit a rivalry matchup of two running teams who each play at a slow pace and the result should be Under the total. That's what we have in a matchup of Miami of Ohio versus Cincinnati. Both teams run the ball more than 60 percent of the time. The RedHawks have a struggling offense that has injuries and a true freshman as their starting quarterback. They rank 117th in yards. Cincinnati plays at a slower tempo than even Miami of Ohio. The Bearcats are very strong defensively and stepping completely down in class having just met Ohio State. There should be extra intensity for this nonconference matchup. The two teams face each other every year for the Victory Bell. The schools only are about 45 miles apart in southwest Ohio. The average combined total during the past three matchups is 35.3 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings.
09-14-19	Maryland v. Temple +7.5	Top	17-20	Win	100	24 h 60 m	Show
Maryland is being overrated in this spot following blowout victories against Howard, an FCS bottom feeder, and Syracuse. Both of those easy wins came at home. The Terrapins now hit the road to play a very physical, rested and well-coached opponent. The Owls had a bye last week giving them two weeks to prepare for this nonconference matchup. Temple is averaging just a shade below nine wins per year during the past four seasons. Temple's offense looked good in its opener, a 56-12 romp over Bucknell at home. The Owls may have the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference. The Owls are strong at linebacker, too. They have their top seven tacklers from last season all back. The Owls have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've been home 'dogs winning six of those games outright. A similar situational spot happened last year when the teams met in Week 3. Maryland played Temple that week sporting a 2-0 mark, with one of those victories being an impressive upset win against Texas. The game was at Maryland. Temple won, 35-14. The Owls outgained the Terps by 234 yards.
09-13-19	North Carolina v. Wake Forest OVER 64	Top	18-24	Loss	-120	96 h 47 m	Show
North Carolina has yet to break the 28-point barrier in two games this season. The Tar Heels, though, have faced a pair of tough defenses in South Carolina and Miami. Wake Forest has struggled the past two years on defense. The Demon Deacons finished 116th in total defense last season. I'm not impressed with their defense this season either. So this is a big drop in class for North Carolina, which has gotten good play from QB Sam Howell and RB Javonte Williams. The Over has cashed in North Carolina's last five road games. Wake Forest is averaging nearly 40 points a game having met Utah State and Rice. Jamie Newman has come through at QB for the Demon Deacons completing 74.3 percent of his throws with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson likes to push pace and that's what his team is doing.
09-09-19	Broncos +1 v. Raiders	Top	16-24	Loss	-110	148 h 12 m	Show
Von Miller and Bradley Chubb may be the best pass rushing tandem in the NFL. They are in line for big games against a depleted Raiders offensive line that won't have their starting guards and likely going with untested Kolton Miller at left tackle. It's hard to imagine the Raiders getting a ground attack going against Denver minus guards Richie Incognito, who is suspended, and Gabe Jackson, out with a knee injury. I'm not high on Raiders rookie running back, Josh Jacobs. Vic Fangio is an upper level defensive coach and he's had plenty of time to game plan. The Raiders have a bottom-five defense. Indications are that the Broncos' two best playmakers, running back Philip Lindsay and Emmanuel Sanders, are back to health. That's all Joe Flacco needs to game manage a victory here for Denver.
09-08-19	Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 51	Top	3-33	Win	100	125 h 44 m	Show
It's easy to think offense with these two teams. But doing that can get you in trouble with this matchup. The Patriots have their deepest defense since the early Bill Belichick days. They are especially strong at linebacker and cornerback. The Steelers' firepower isn't quite as potent without Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a worthy No. 1 wideout. The problem for the Steelers is Donte Montcrief is a weak No. 2 wide receiver and James Washington is unproven. Rookie linebacker Devin Bush should have a huge impact on Pittsburgh's defense. The Patriots have become more run-oriented. They are down at tight end with Rob Gronkowski retired and Benjamin Watson suspended. Losing center David Andrews for the season was a tough blow, too, for New England. The two teams met in Week 15 last season at Pittsburgh and the Steelers won, 17-10.
09-08-19	Lions -140 v. Cardinals		27-27	Push	0	119 h 31 m	Show
Arizona can't be worse than what it was last season. The Cardinals' offense certainly should be more deadly with Kliff Kingsburgy and Kyler Murray operating things. However, the Lions are a level higher than the Cardinals right now. Detroit has the running back, Kerryon Johnson, to exploit the Cardinals' weak run defense and the veteran quarterback, Matthew Stafford, to take advantage of the Cardinals minus their top two cornerbacks, suspended Patrick Peterson and injured Robert Alfrod. Stafford has reliable wide receiving weapons with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola along with No. 1 draft pick tight end T.J. Hockenson. Detroit also has an edge in place-kickers. The Lions upgraded their defensive line. It's too much to expect Murray not to make mistakes and go turnover-free. The Lions played the Cardinals on the road in last year's season-opener and won, 17-3. It was the sixth time in the last eight years the Lions have won their Week 1 game.
09-08-19	Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 46	Top	17-35	Loss	-109	533 h 14 m	Show
I see this as the high point of this over/under number with the total only dropping before kickoff. So I am recommending locking into this number now. Neither team is explosive. The Giants have a dink-and-dunk passing attack that wasn't very good even when they had Odell Beckham Jr. Eli Manning's numbers are far worse when Beckham hasn't been in the lineup. New York is down suspended Golden Tate and may not have Sterling Shephard, who has a thumb injury. Those are the Giants' two best wide receivers. Dallas has a very strong defense that is well-coached. The strength of the Cowboys' defense are their mobile linebackers. They can prevent Saquan Barkley from breaking big plays. The Cowboys are ground-oriented. Dak Prescott is more game-manager than gunslinger. The Cowboys aren't going to take wild chances in a game they should have no problem winning if they stick to their grind-out style. Ezekiel Elliott probably is 50-50 to end his holdout by game time. Obviously it's a huge plus for the Under if the rushing champion sits out. If you discount last season's meaningless Week 17 matchup, the average combined total during the past five Giants-Cowboys games is 30.2 points.
09-08-19	Colts +7 v. Chargers		24-30	Win	100	118 h 21 m	Show
This game has moved up to a touchdown now that Andrew Luck isn't going to play. The Colts, though, are solid everywhere. They are still a very respectable football team and offensive guru Frank Reich can coach up Jacoby Brissett, who brings a mobility to the QB position that Luck didn't have. The Colts have shown unity since Luck announced his retirement. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulders ready to prove to the world they are more than just Andrew Luck. The Chargers are missing key players, too, with safety Derwin James and offensive left tackle Russell Okung both injured and out. LA isn't likely to have its top running back, Melvin Gordon, either as he remains a holdout. The Chargers have lost each of their past three season-openers. They were 2-5 ATS in their home games last season covering only against the Raiders and Cardinals.
09-08-19	Chiefs v. Jaguars +4		40-26	Loss	-110	116 h 19 m	Show
The Jaguars should be closer to their AFC South Division-winning form of two seasons ago than last year's 5-11 disaster with Nick Foles taking over at quarterback from Blake Bortles. Jacksonville retains much of its elite defense that gave up the fifth-fewest points and yards last season. The Chiefs are breaking in a new defensive scheme. Their defense surrendered the second-most yards last season and is without a number of key performers, including pass rushers Justin Houston, Dee Ford and safety Eric Berry. I don't see the Chiefs' defense being any better, probably even worse, than 2018 especially early in the season. The Jaguars have revenge for a 30-14 road loss to the Chiefs last season. Jacksonville's defense played well against Patrick Mahomes, but were done in by Bortles' four interceptions, including a pick-six. The Jaguars were missing their star running back, Leonard Fournett, in that game. Foles represents a huge improvement on turnover-prone Bortles. The weather is likely to be extremely hot this time of year in Jacksonville, which would add to the Jaguars' home field advantage.
09-07-19	Nevada v. Oregon -23.5	Top	6-77	Win	100	75 h 16 m	Show
Oregon has won 14 straight home openers. The Ducks should have no problem extending that streak to 15 in a row hosting Nevada. Justin Herbert is in the short discussion for best QB in the country. He should find little resistance from a porous Nevada secondary. Oregon is off a brutal 27-21 loss to Auburn in which the Tigers scored the game-winning TD on a 26-yard pass with nine seconds left. Oregon has Montana on deck. So the Ducks should be fully focused for this matchup ready to take their frustrations out on a much weaker foe than Auburn. Nevada is in the opposite spot. The Wolf Pack pulled out a home victory against Purdue as a double-digit 'dog on a 56-yard field goal at the gun in their opener. Purdue had a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against the Wolf Pack, who couldn't stop the Boilermakers' passing attack. The Boilermakers were done in by a 5-0 turnover ratio. That's not likely to happen to a Reno opponent two straight weeks. The Wolf Pack aren't nearly as good as the Ducks and are in a huge letdown spot. Nevada nipped Oregon State at home early in the season last year and then fell, 63-44, on the road to Toledo the following week. Look for a similar pattern here.
09-07-19	UL-Monroe v. Florida State OVER 63		44-45	Win	100	72 h 27 m	Show
Florida State put up 31 points in the first half against Boise State opening week before not doing anything in the second half against the Broncos. That didn't sit well with Kendal Briles, the Seminoles' sharp offensive coordinator. Look for the Seminoles to put together two strong halves against a much weaker opponent. The Seminoles are playing at a much quicker tempo under Briles, who is in his first season at Florida State. They are facing an opponent that has a weak secondary. Louisiana Monroe can contribute to this total going Over, too. The Warhawks have one of the better quarterbacks in the Sun Belt Conference, Caleb Evans, and good depth at running back. The Over has cashed the past six times Florida State has played a non-conference game.
09-07-19	San Diego State v. UCLA UNDER 45.5		23-14	Win	100	39 h 36 m	Show
Both team's star running backs are banged up and at less than 100 percent. San Diego State's Juwan Washington is dealing with an ankle injury, while UCLA's Joshua Kelley didn't play against Cincinnati due to a sore knee. Both are questionable to play Neither team has a good passing attack. San Diego State's Ryan Agnew is a game-manager type while UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson could be the worst starting QB in the Pac-12. Both teams, though, are solid defensively. UCLA was strong against the run versus Cincinnati.
09-07-19	Nebraska -3 v. Colorado		31-34	Loss	-115	71 h 58 m	Show
Nebraska has been waiting a year for this rematch. The Cornhuskers lost, 33-28, at home to Colorado in their opener last season. It was Scott Frost's coaching debut for Nebraska and a bitter loss for the Cornhuskers made more bitter by the Buffaloes knocking out QB Adrian Martinez. Martinez is back and better than ever. He's one of the premier QB's in the country and a level higher than Colorado QB Steven Montez. The Cornhuskers rushed for 329 yards against the Buffaloes. Colorado was fortunate to open against a weak Colorado State team. The Buffaloes weren't as sharp in that game as the final score may have indicated and are down defensively from last season. Nebraska has the balanced offense to expose Colorado's defensive shortcomings.
09-07-19	Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7		24-42	Win	100	67 h 29 m	Show
Purdue has an elite passing attack. The Boilermakers have a veteran QB and a deep group of receivers, including the incomparable Rondale Moore. The Boilermakers are in a kill spot playing their first home game after blowing a 31-14 fourth-quarter lead to Nevada last week in a 34-31 loss. Purdue couldn't overcome a 5-0 turnover deficit. Look for the Boilermakers to be far less sloppy and far more comfortable at home. Vanderbilt lost a number of key players from last season. The Commodores are due for a regression. They were outclassed at home by Georgia, 30-6, this past week managing just 225 yards while surrendering nearly 500 yards.
09-06-19	Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State	Top	7-14	Win	100	18 h 25 m	Show
Boise State often is overpriced when playing at home. That's the case here especially with the Broncos coming off an upset road victory against Florida State in their opener last week. The Broncos have failed to cover in 16 of their last 23 home games. Freshman QB Hank Bachmeier spearheaded a tremendous Boise State comeback against the Seminoles as the Broncos rallied from a 31-13 deficit. The Broncos, though, are in a big letdown spot and Bachmeier will be challenged by a strong Marshall secondary. The Thundering Herd get a rare chance to play on national TV. They may be the best team in Conference USA. While Bachmeier gets a lot of attention for his heroics, Marshall sophomore QB Isiah Green looked good in his team's 56-17 win against Virginia Military Institute last week. Green is backed by a deep of running backs and receivers.
09-02-19	Notre Dame -18 v. Louisville	Top	35-17	Push	0	30 h 24 m	Show
Notre Dame is going to get its points in this one. Louisville's defense was terrible last season giving up an average of 44.1 points and 483.5 yards a game. The Cardinals ranked among the bottom-four in those important defensive categories. They are on their fourth defensive coordinator in four years. Making it worse, the Cardinals also got poor punting last season. Notre Dame averaged better than 36 points a game last year after Ian Book became its starting QB in Week 4. I can't see Louisville keeping up. The Cardinals have many questions on the offensive side of the ball. New coach Scott Satterfield seems like a good hire based on his track record at Appalachian State. But it's going to take time to fix the huge mess Bobby Petrino left him. Drawing Notre Dame for their opener is a real bad break for the Cardinals, who have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 home games and are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 nonleague games.
09-01-19	Houston +23.5 v. Oklahoma	Top	31-49	Win	100	20 h 44 m	Show
I'm not buying that Oklahoma is more than three touchdowns better than Houston. In fact, I like Houston QB D'Eriq King more than Sooners QB Jalen Hurts. I regard King as the top QB in college football especially now that he has Dana Holgorsen as his head coach. King has the rare opportunity to showcase his skills in front of a national TV audidence with the game on ABC. Holgorsen is an offensive guru. He was head coach at West Virginia last year. The Mountaineers played Oklahoma last season and narrowly lost, 59-56. The Sooners shouldn't be laying this high of a number to such a strong offense. Oklahoma was last in the nation in pass defense in 2018 while ranking at the bottom in the Big 12 in scoring defense and total defense. The Sooners also have a question mark at kicker as the FBS' all-time leading scorer among kickers, Austin Seibert, has left. This is going to be a shootout of the highest proportions. Houston was very weak against the run last season. And that was with stud Ed Oliver. But the Cougars have defensive line depth, experience at the safety spots and get to go against the Sooners in their first game breaking in four new offensive line starters.
08-31-19	Virginia Tech v. Boston College +4	Top	28-35	Win	100	172 h 41 m	Show
Virginia Tech's defense was historically bad under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster last year. The Hokies should be improved as they can't get much worse. But it's going to take time. The Hokies gave up 31 points a game last season, which ranked 85th. They were 98th in yards allowed and their run defense ranked 106th. BC has one of the top running backs in the nation, AJ Dillon. He's fresh and healthy, something he wasn't last year. Eagles QB Anthony Brown has experience and is capable of running the offense. He has improved as a passer. The Eagles won, 31-21, against Virginia Tech last season on the road. I do think the Hokies will be better, but this isn't a good matchup for them and it's the first game. So I'll gladly accept these points.
08-31-19	Akron v. Illinois UNDER 61		3-42	Win	100	27 h 34 m	Show
Maybe it's a leap of faith to project these defenses to be improved. But I believe this total is too high. Akron actually has some good linebackers and a very good safety, Alvin Davis. The Zips held seven of their last 10 foes to 28 points or less in 2018. Illinois had a very bad defense last year. That's a reason why this total is so high. But the Illini have some promising young players on defense. They also figure to play ball control in this matchup running the ball alot with Reggie Corbin. Lovie Smith is a very conservative coach and he's favored by close to three touchdowns in this game. So expect Illinois not to take any chances. Just be very vanilla especially since this is the first game.
08-31-19	Akron +19 v. Illinois		3-42	Loss	-110	27 h 33 m	Show
Illinois isn't nearly good enough to be laying this many points even to a low-level MAC team such as Akron. The Illini have averaged three wins during the past three seasons during the Lovie Smith era. The Illini finished 1-6 in their last seven games and and had the worst defense in the Big Ten. They ranked fifth from the bottom in the NCAA in yards allowed. They are not used to this reverse role where the pressure not only is on them to win but cover a huge number. Akron won't lack motivation playing its first game under new coach Tom Arth. The Zips have firepower. Their strength is at the skill positions with quarterback Kato Nelson and three decent wide receivers. The Zips upset Northwestern, 39-34, in their first road game last season. Illinois also played Northwestern last year and lost to the Wildcats, 24-16.
08-30-19	Colorado State v. Colorado -12.5		31-52	Win	100	154 h 50 m	Show
The gap has gotten wider between these two in-state rivals. That was evident last season when Colorado blasted the Rams, 45-13. I see the Buffaloes winning by at least two touchdowns again. New Colorado head coach Mel Tucker will be wanting to make a statement. He has the wide edge in athletes to accomplish that. The Buffaloes should be solid on defense under defensive-minded Tucker and their offense should pick up being more up-tempo than before under Mike MacIntyre. Steven Montez is a solid quarterback and the Buffaloes are deep at receiver. Laviska Shenault is in the argument for best wideout in the nation and the Rams are shaky at linebacker. Note this game is being played in Denver. Colorado State has failed to cover the past eight times it has played at a neutral site.
08-30-19	Purdue -9.5 v. Nevada	Top	31-34	Loss	-110	250 h 47 m	Show
If I could pick one wide receiver to have on my college football team it would be Purdue's Rondale Moore. He's the most exciting player in college football in my view. This is a perfect storm of key factors that point to Purdue beating Nevada by double-digits. Moore heads up a very strong group of Purdue receivers. Even tight end Brycen Hopkins is very good for the Boilermakers. Senior QB Elijah Sindelar is underrated at this point. He's going to have a big season with so many talented receiving targets. Nevada has a very weak secondary. The Wolf Pack also are untested at quarterback, smaller than Purdue and weaker in the trenches. The Boilermakers have been pointing to this game for a long time after being humiliated, 63-14, by Auburn in the Music City Bowl. Purdue has won each of its road openers under Jeff Brohm beating Nebraska, 42-28, last year and Missouri, 35-3, two seasons ago. Those are better teams than Nevada. The Boilermakers can't misfire here knowing Vanderbilt and TCU are up next for them before they enter Big Ten action. So expect a strong, focused effort from the better team that should result in an easy victory.
08-30-19	Rice v. Army OVER 48	Top	7-14	Loss	-105	95 h 7 m	Show
You better be able to stop the run when playing Army. Rice can't do that. The Owls ranked 112th in scoring defense and 103rd in yards given up last season. Things don't look much better for Rice this season as the Owls had several defections on their defensive line. Army has the quarterback and ground attack to take advantage. The Black Knights finished No. 2 in rushing last season. Army QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. was the first player in Army history to run and pass for more than 1,000 yards. Rice has excellent depth at wide receiver and at running back. The Owls even have a good tight end. Army's defense is down several key seniors from a year ago and has some vulnerability at linebacker that Rice can exploit. The Over is 12-3-2 the past 17 times Rice has played a non-conference opponent.
08-29-19	UCLA v. Cincinnati UNDER 58		14-24	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
This total has been bet down, but there still is value on the Under. The teams met in their opening game last year and the Bearcats won, 26-17. Cincinnati held UCLA to just 306 total yards of offense. The Bearcats led the AAC in scoring defense and run defense last season. Their defense should be tough again this year. I'm not sold either on UCLA sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. UCLA has good size on its defensive line. Cincinnati does possess excellent talent at the skill positions. However, the Bearcats have an inexperienced offensive line. Look for both teams to stay on the ground a lot, which eats clock. When the Bruins throw it could be short passes to their running backs.
02-03-19	Patriots -129 v. Rams	Top	13-3	Win	100	287 h 51 m	Show
Monster quarterback edge. Far more biggest-stage experience. Intangibles. I want all those things going for me and that's why I am siding with the Patriots. Look I love Sean McVay. But if there's one coach - and there is only one coach - who can trump McVay it is Bill Belichick especially with two weeks of preparation. I don't trust Jared Goff. He didn't look good down the stretch once Cooper Kupp suffered a season-ending knee injury halfway through the season. Only once in his last seven games did Goff reached 300 yards passing. Goff had only a 10-to-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio when not playing at home. The Rams averaged just 22.6 points during their last six games if you discount their 48-point performance versus the 49ers. The Patriots have excellent cornerbacks. They can control Brandin Cooks, who they know well since Cooks was with New England last season, and Robert Woods. The Patriots had the 11th-best run defense, too. Tom Brady is the best big-game quarterback in NFL history. The only other names you can throw into that argument are Joe Montana, Bart Starr and Otto Graham. The Rams haven't been to the Super Bowl since 2001. That happened to be the first Super Bowl Belichick and Brady played in together. Since then the Patriots have played in seven other Super Bowls. This is their ninth Super, fourth one in five season and third straight. Cooks and defensive back Aqib Talib are the only Rams who have even played in a Super Bowl. The Patriots have covered nine of their last 12 playoff games. What is McVay's history? The Rams were one-and-done last season losing by 13 points at home to the Falcons as 6 1/2-point favorites. They barely managed to cover against the Cowboys at home this season in their first playoff game and then hung in to pull the upset against the Saints in the NFC title game benefitting from maybe the worst non-call in playoff history on an obvious pass interference call. I don't mean to demean, or sound harsh against the Rams. Again, I really like McVay. I do think he is at the genius level. He just doesn't have the quarterback, nor the dominant shutdown type of defense needed to beat the Patriots. New England may have the most underrated interior offensive line in football. The Patriots haven't allowed a sack in playoff victories against the Chargers and Chiefs. The Rams finished with 11 fewer sacks than the Chiefs and had just three more sacks than the Chargers during the regular season. Todd Gurley is the Rams' most dangerous weapon. And he's not 100 percent. He barely played against the Saints carrying only four times, which tells me he's far from 100 percent because of a lingering knee injury. If Gurley isn't in top form than Sony Michel is the best running back. Michel is stepping up with 242 rushing and five touchdowns in New England's two postseason victories. He has looked great. The Patriots are a combined 62-1 in the regular season and playoffs when having a runner rush for 100 yards. Aaron Donald is a monster in the Rams' defensive line. But LA doesn't have the quality linebackers to both stop Michel and cover the Patriots' various short receiving threats - running back James White, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, who looked better than he had in weeks during the win against the Chiefs. Brady is the master at knowing who and when to use his various weapons. I'm not betting against him and Belichick.
01-20-19	Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 56	Top	37-31	Loss	-110	97 h 37 m	Show
I understand why the oddsmaker set a total this high. There were 83 points scored when the teams met in Week 6 with the Patriots winning, 43-40. The Patriots also looked great in steamrolling the Chargers this past Sunday, 41-28. But this matchup is going to be much different. It is going to be far more lower scoring than perceived. Let's start with a weather element. Kickoff is set for 6:40 p.m. Kansas City time. By that time, temperatures are forecast to be around 10 degrees, possibly lower. If the temperatures reach single digits it would make it the coldest playoff game in the history of Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs' offense is less explosive without Kareem Hunt, their best running back. The Patriots' defense is underrated. It has a bend-but-don't break nature. Only six teams gave up fewer points than the Patriots, although playing the Jets, Bills and Dolphins twice each padded those defensive statistics. However, part of Bill Belichick's genius is his ability to see things on film and learn from a previous matchup. Look for the Patriots to be in proper position to thwart Patrick Mahomes, playing in his first NFL title game, and the rest of the Chiefs. Kansas City isn't going to get any cheap points against such a well-coached defense. If Belichick has a hidden wrinkle that Mahomes hasn't seen, he will unleash it here. Another reason the total opened so high is because the Chiefs surrendered the second-most yards in the league and also the second-most passing yards. But Kansas City's defense is entirely different at home. The Chiefs gave up an average of 34.6 points on the road, but just 18 points per game at Arrowhead. And that's not including the Chiefs' playoff victory against the Colts last week. The Colts could manage just a single touchdown on offense against the Chiefs. The Patriots are not explosive like they have been in past seasons. Losing Josh Gordon to suspension and Rob Gronkowski becoming just a shell of his former self because of injuries have weakened New England's offense. Even with Gordon, the Patriots averaged only 21.6 points in their road games. That's the lowest total in Tom Brady's career. Brady did not have one of his better seasons. The Patriots rely on the running of Sony Michel and short passes now. The key to stopping Brady is having a strong pass rush without resorting to blitzes. The Chiefs can do that because they have three excellent pass rushers, Chris Jones, Dee Ford and Justin Houston. That trio combined to record 27 1/2 sacks.
01-20-19	Rams +3.5 v. Saints		26-23	Win	100	91 h 10 m	Show
The Saints hosted the Rams back in Week 9. The Rams were 1 1/2-point road favorites. Now look at the spread. There's a difference of four points, which I don't see between these two teams. These are the two best teams in the NFC deserving of meeting in the title game. But in my view the Rams are slightly better and that isn't negated by the Saints being home. It was huge for the Rams that they played earlier this season in the Superdome. They now have more of an idea of what to expect. Yes, the Saints beat the Rams, 45-35. But the score was tied 35-35 and the Rams had a chance to deliver a knockout blow to the Saints. They didn't do it - this time. The Saints are at their best inside their dome. But a fast-track, carpet field without weather conditions is helpful for the Rams, too. They are explosive with reliance on speed. Jared Goff is far better when not affected by bad weather. Take away their road loss to the Bears in cold weather and the Rams would be averaging 36.6 points a game. This is the first time LA is getting points all season. The Saints are going to have to score a ton of points to win and even more to cover the spread. Lost in the glare of the Saints' playoff victory against the Eagles was New Orleans losing defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. He suffered a torn Achilles. That's a huge defensive loss for New Orleans. Rankins finally was living up to his vast potential with eight sacks while playing the run well. Sean McValy is a coaching genius. I rank him as the best coach in the NFC. He had the vision to make the Rams more of a physical team instead of just a finesse passing team. He did this on a fly, too, implementing that late in the season. The move paid off against a Cowboys defense that is better than the Saints defense. The Rams ran for 273 yards against a Cowboys defense that ranked fifth versus the run. On the flip side, the Rams held NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott to 47 yards rushing on 20 carries. LA has a trump card on defense: Aaron Donald. He's the most dominant defensive lineman in football. He's be operating against Audrus Peat, who is playing with a broken hand. Donald can disrupt the Saints offense just by himself.
01-13-19	Eagles v. Saints -8	Top	14-20	Loss	-105	54 h 29 m	Show
No the Saints aren't blowing out the Eagles by 41 points like they did at home in Week 11. Philadelphia's secondary is in better physical shape and Nick Foles has replaced ailing Carson Wentz at quarterback. But this isn't enough to keep the Eagles within a touchdown of the Saints. New Orleans is a level higher this season than the Eagles and playing inside their dome stadium where Drew Brees threw 22 touchdown passes with just one interception. The Eagles struggled against Mitch Trubisky on grass last week surviving only because of Cody Parkey's bad luck on his final field goal attempt. Brees on a fast track with Alvin Karma, Michael Thomas and Mark Ingram is too much offense for the Eagles. Karma and Ingram both are far superior to any of the Eagles running backs. Thomas is the best wide receiver on the field. The Eagles carry a fatigue rating playing in their third straight road matchup while the Saints are rested. Offensive mastermind Sean Payton is dangerous with extra prep time. The Eagles have failed to cover nine the last 13 times they have played on carpet. Foles may be the top backup quarterback in the league. But if he were a starter he would rank among the bottom half. Foles has started the past four games. He has an eight-to-five TD-to-interception ratio during this time. The Saints are much improved defensively. During Weeks 10 through 15 - when they were competing hard for playoff seeding - the Saints gave up 12.3 points per game. No team scored more than 17 points on them during this time. You need a balanced offense and ball-control to beat the Saints inside the Louisiana Superdome. The Eagles rank 28th rushing. New Orleans has the No. 2 run defense. Credit to the Eagles for getting this far. But their journey to repeat as Super Bowl champions ends here.
01-12-19	Cowboys v. Rams -7		22-30	Win	100	46 h 39 m	Show
There are three major reasons why I like the Rams to beat the Cowboys by more than a touchdown: Situation, home/road data and coaching. Let's start with the situation. LA is rested. The Rams should be well prepared given two weeks to prepare with Sean McVay, who just might be the sharpest offensive-minded coach in football. The Rams won 11 games under McVay last season emerging as a force. However, the Rams suffered from playoff inexperience and lost in the first round to the Falcons. This year the Rams won 13 games and improved even more. Jared Goff and Co. now have playoff experience. A rested Todd Gurley trumps Ezekiel Elliott especially with a far better downfield passing attack on his side. The Cowboys entered this season having won one playoff game in Jason Garrett's previous seven years as head coach. McVay versus Garrett is a huge coaching mismatch in LA's favor. Home/road splits are huge for both teams. The Rams went 7-1 at home, averaging nine more points per game at home while giving up 8.2 points less per contest. Goff is a California quarterback. His quarterack rating was nearly 35 points higher when he played in LA. Dallas, by contrast, averaged 7.5 points fewer per game when on the road with Dak Prescott's quarterback rating being nearly 24 points lower away from Dallas. The Cowboys averaged a league-low 5.8 points in the first half when on the road. The Cowboys are heavily run-oriented. Prescott has severe limitations when throwing more than just short passes. The Cowboys also have a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. They are not built to come from behind if the Rams should jump out to a big lead against them.
01-12-19	Colts +5 v. Chiefs	Top	13-31	Loss	-105	121 h 48 m	Show
Andy Reid is a likely Hall of Fame coach. But when it comes to the playoffs he is a Hall of Fame chump. Reid's team have lost eight of their last nine playoff games. This includes a 1-4 postseason mark with the Chiefs. The Titans upset the Chiefs as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs last season in the Chiefs' first playoff game. These Colts are far better than that Tennessee team. The Chiefs went just 3-3 down the stretch going 1-4-1 ATS with their lone cover coming against the Raiders. Indianapolis is 10-1 in its last 11 games. The Colts' defense has been far better than perceived. So has their offensive line, which gave up the fewest sacks in the league. Marlon Mack has emerged as a running back threat. He's better than any of Kansas City's running backs with Kareem Hunt gone. Patrick Mahomes had a great season. But so did Andrew Luck, who threw the second-most TD passes on the season in back of only Mahomes. Luck has playoff experience, something Mahomes lacks. Kansas City's defense has played better at home. But the Colts hold a defensive edge. They've held five of their last six foes to 21 points or fewer. The Chiefs defense surrendered the second-most points per game and second most-yards per game. The Colts have become a physical unit that can play ball control. That's the way to beat the Chiefs.
01-07-19	Alabama v. Clemson +5.5	Top	16-44	Win	100	115 h 3 m	Show
Clemson isn't getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. The Tigers are every bit as good - if not better - than Alabama. Yes, the SEC is a better football conference than the ACC. No argument there. But I will argue the Tigers passed a tough schedule with flying colors beating 10 Bowl teams, eight of them by 20 or more points. Clemson is every bit as dominating as Alabama ranking fourth in points scored while giving up the fewest points per game in the nation. The Tigers have proven themselves huge money-winners in the postseason, too, covering eight of their last nine bowl games. Alabama's defense showed some vulnerability against Oklahoma. True, the Sooners have a great offense. But so does Clemson. I like Tigers QB Trevor Lawrence much more than Kelly Bryant. The Tide defeated Clemson, 24-6, in the Sugar Bowl last season when Bryant was behind center. This time around it will be much different.
01-06-19	Chargers +3 v. Ravens	Top	23-17	Win	100	39 h 22 m	Show
The Chargers are that rare team that plays better on the road than at home. The reason for this is they really don't have a home-field advantage playing at sparsely populated StubHub Center in Southern California. The Chargers are 8-0, though, in games outside of Southern California. They have won in five different time zones and won't be intimidated here. The forecast for Sunday in Baltimore is sunny with temperatures in the 40s with around a 10-12 mph wind. So it's not like the Chargers are going into frigid conditions. Baltimore dominated the Chargers, 22-10, on the road just two weeks ago. Until that loss, the Chargers were in the argument for best team in the league. So maybe they needed a loss like that to sharpen them up and energize their focus. There is no secret to the Ravens. They are going to pound the ball, play for field position and rely on their excellent defense. The Chargers won't be ambushed again by the Ravens. Baltimore beat the Chargers after LA had knocked off the Chiefs the previous week on the road. So it wasn't a great spot for the Chargers. I respect the Ravens. Their defense is better than the Chargers. John Harbaugh is an above average coach, while Anthony Lynn is untested in playoff games. But I believe the Chargers are the better all-around team. Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen give the Chargers the best skill position players. The Chargers also get back big-play tight end Hunter Henry for the first time this season. They also have change-of-pace Austin Ekeler back. He missed the first game against the Ravens. Ekeler is a key because he's good pass-catching back and can hurt the Ravens via screen passes, which would slow down the Ravens' pass rush. The Chargers know what's coming. They are going to be prepared for Baltimore's ground attack by loading up the box. Lamar Jackson is an outstanding running QB, but he's not a good downfield passer.
01-05-19	Seahawks v. Cowboys -125	Top	22-24	Win	100	50 h 15 m	Show
Those who like Seattle in this matchup point to the Seahawks' playoff experience and coaching/quarterback edges thanks to Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson. But the Seahawks have failed to cover in five of their last six playoff games. Dak Prescott isn't nearly as good as Russell Wilson and I would take Carroll over Jason Garrett. But the Cowboys hold most of the other edges not to mention home field and having had the opportunity to rest Ezekiel Elliott last Sunday. Elliott trumps any of Seattle's running back. The Cowboys are healthier in the trenches and have the superior defense. Both teams rely on the run to set up play-action. Dallas has the better offensive line. Seattle has a key defensive injury with cornerback Shaquill Griffin dealing with an ankle injury. Griffin would be lining up opposite Amari Cooper, who caught 53 passes for 725 yards and six touchdowns in just nine games for the Cowboys providing Dallas with a legitimate No. 1 receiver. The Cowboys also found a late-season hidden weapon, second-year tight end Blake Jarwin. He had 228 receiving yards in Dallas' last four games while scoring three touchdowns against the Giants in Week 17. The Cowboys defense ranks in the top-seven in fewest points, fewest yards and run defense. Seattle was 16th in yards allowed, 13th in run defense and 11th in scoring defense. Bobby Wagner is the Seahawks' lone defensive star. The Cowboys have an elite pass rusher, DeMarcus Lawrence, a top-notch cornerback, Byron Jones, and two emerging star linebackers, Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith. It's an added plus if Sean Lee is healthy enough to give them anything. Dallas' home field advantage can't be minimized either. It's huge. Dallas is 7-1 at home. The Cowboys held the Saints to a season-low 10 points at AT&T Stadium. Seattle is 4-4 on the road. The Seahawks' away victories came against the Cardinals, Lions, Panthers and Raiders - all below .500 teams.
01-01-19	Texas +13.5 v. Georgia		28-21	Win	100	24 h 51 m	Show
Not sure of Georgia's motivation for this game after playing for the national title game last season and falling short against Alabama this season. I'm not doubting the Bulldogs' talent. But Texas is going to be up for this game. The Longhorns never lack talent either and they have the best underdog coach going for them in Tom Herman. How good of a 'dog coach is Herman? If you take his last four jobs as offensive coordinator and head coach his teams are 23-2 ATS for 92 percent when taking points! Texas has a pair of dangerous big-play versatile receivers in Collin Johnson and Lil' Jordan Humphrey. The Bulldogs are without their top defensive back, Deandre Baker, who is sitting out the game to prepare for the NFL draft.
01-01-19	Washington v. Ohio State -6	Top	23-28	Loss	-110	20 h 22 m	Show
I want Ohio State going for me in Urban Meyer's final game as Buckeyes coach and the price isn't too high to get it. The Pac 12 is down this season. That's reflected in the bowls. Washington is one-dimensional relying on a strong defense. But Ohio State has a great offense ranking No. 2 in the nation in yards gained and seventh in points. The Buckeyes average 17 points more per game than the Huskies and play in the stronger conference in my view. If the Huskies fall behind early they are in big trouble because they lack an explosive offense. When motivated the Buckeyes can beat any team with the exception of Alabama and Clemson. Washington isn't close to being in that class. The Huskies lost to Auburn, Oregon and California. Ohio State displayed its power by burying Michigan, 62-39, in its last game. I see a class difference here. Throw in the huge motivating factor to get Meyer a victory in his finale and I'll lay the points.
12-31-18	NC State v. Texas A&M OVER 55.5	Top	13-52	Win	100	21 h 59 m	Show
Both teams rank among the top 26 in scoring. NC State averages 35.6 points. Texas A&M averages 34.7 points. So I find this total short. Neither defense can is strong enough to slow the other offense down. North Carolina State has a stud QB in Ryan Finley. He has a deep group of receivers to throw, including Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers. Both of whom had more than 1,000 yards receiving this season. The Wolfpack have gone Over in each of their last eight neutral site games. The Over has cashed in each of North Carolina State's last six bowl games. Texas A&M has gone Over in six of its last seven nonconference games. The Aggies have one of the best running backs in college football, Trayveon Williams, and also one of the better tight ends, Jace Sternberger, who had 804 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns.
12-31-18	Missouri v. Oklahoma State +10		33-38	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
If Missouri is the better team here, the Tigers aren't more than a touchdown better than Oklahoma State. Both offenses are strong. Missouri has the better defense, but Oklahoma State can score on any team. The Cowboys rank 14th in scoring and 10th in yardage. QB Taylor Cornelius is one of the most dangerous dual threats in the country. Cornelius is backed by talented running backs. The Tigers didn't see a lot of wide open attacks like Oklahoma State has playing in the SEC. The Tigers have good skill position talent, too, but Drew Lock doesn't have Cornelius' mobility and the Tigers could be missing several of their weapons with running back Damarea Crockett, wide receiver Jalen Knox and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam all banged-up. The Cowboys have been point spread gold in nonleague games covering eight of their past nine nonconference matchups.
12-31-18	Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -6.5	Top	31-35	Loss	-110	14 h 5 m	Show
This is not a very good Virginia Tech team. The Hokies just were able to sneak into a bowl game. I find Cincinnati to not only be the superior team, but the more motivated one. The Bearcats surrendered 152 fewer yards per game than the Hokies. Cincinnati gave up fewer than 17 points a game, while Virginia Tech allowed nearly 32 points per game. The Hokies can be run on and passed on yielding more than 220 yards both ways. Cincinnati has the skill position talent to exploit Virginia Tech's vulnerable defense with dual threat quarterback Desmond Ridder and running back Michael Warren II. The Bearcats also have the best pass rusher in the game in Cortez Broughton and an excellent punter, James Smith. When Virginia Tech loses it is not by a close count. All of the Hokies' six defeats came by 10 or more points.
12-30-18	Colts -3 v. Titans		33-17	Win	100	74 h 48 m	Show
The Colts knocked out Marcus Mariota when they played the Titans in Week 11. The Colts buried the Titans, 38-10, in that game. Andrew Luck torched the Titans for 297 yards passing and three touchdowns. Luck is 10-0 lifetime versus Tennessee. Luck is an elite quarterback and now, for the first time, has an elite pass-blocking offensive line. The Colts are very underrated defensively giving up the 11th fewest yards and 13th fewest points. I expect Mariota to start for the Titans. But he's not likely 100 percent and he's not that good even when he is healthy unable to consistenly hurt a defense with downfield throws. The Titans' strategy has become feed Derrick Henry and rely on a good - but not great - defense. The Colts rank eighth in run defense. They are going to stack the line keying on Henry. Then what for the Titans? I don't see them being able to keep up with Luck, who is back to elite status and has found a decent running back in Marlon Mack. If the Colts are able to build a big early lead the Titans are in real trouble because that would take Henry out of the mix. The Colts have been playing extremely well going 8-1 in their last nine games, charging hard for a playoff spot. I believe they are the better team with the much superior quarterback. The Titans' home field is strong, but not strong enough to compensate for them being the weaker foe.
12-30-18	Chargers -6.5 v. Broncos		23-9	Win	100	112 h 53 m	Show
Despite getting manhandled last week by the Ravens, the Chargers are one of the best teams in the NFL. They are 11-4 and rank in the top 10 both offensively and defensively. The Chargers need this game in their hunt to finish with the best record in the AFC and win the AFC West Division title. They will be playing hard especially following their bad performance against the Ravens. The Broncos are a shot team done in by injuries, low morale and a coach who barring a miracle won't be with the team next season. Denver is reeling as the regular season comes to a conclusion losing the past three weeks to the 49ers, Browns and Raiders this past Monday night. The Broncos are 11-20 under Vance Joseph, who has impressed no one with his coaching blunders. Denver is down three key players - cornerback Chris Harris, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and now its star rookie running back Phillip Lindsay, who suffered a wrist injury against the Raiders. LA is much the better team and has motivation. The Chargers have the best road mark in the NFL at 6-1 SU and ATS. They have posted road victories against much stronger teams than the Broncos beating the Chiefs, Steelers and Seahawks.
12-30-18	Raiders v. Chiefs -13.5		3-35	Win	100	70 h 33 m	Show
When is it OK to lay two touchdowns in a division game? The answer is right here. This is a kill spot for the high-powered Chiefs off two straight losses and looking for a big win to regain momentum for the playoffs. No team gains more yards or scores more points than the Chiefs, who average 35.3 points per game. Patrick Mahomes should be the MVP of the league with his 48 TD passes, which is 12 more than second-place Andrew Luck. The Raiders rank 31st in scoring defense allowing 28.9 points a game. The Raiders are traveling on a short week after getting a bit of redemption for their disaster of a first season under Jon Gruden having just beaten the Broncos on national TV Monday. I see the Raiders being fat and happy after that win. They don't have nearly the talent to hang against the Chiefs on the road unless they produce an "A" effort. Gruden is going to be around a long time for the Raiders after signing a 10-year contract. I don't see the Raiders entering this matchup with a lot of urgency. They just want this season to be over with. Oakland is 1-6 on the road with the lone victory coming by two points against the punchless Cardinals, who are the opposite of the Chiefs with the worst offense in the NFL. Just two weeks ago the Raiders traveled to Cincinnati and lost by 14 points to the hapless Bengals surrendering 30 points to an outfit that is down their starting quarterback and their three best receivers. The Raiders have lost four road games by 14 points or more. Defense has been Kansas City's major weakness. The Chiefs, though, are giving up a respectable 20.1 points a game when playing at Arrowhead Stadium. The return of star safety Eric Berry improves their defense, too.
12-30-18	Cardinals +14 v. Seahawks		24-27	Win	100	68 h 53 m	Show
I understand the Cardinals are dog excrement. They are 3-12 and headed toward getting the No. 1 draft pick. Steve Wilks has been a dismal failure and is likely to be one-and-out as the Cardinals head coach. However ...The Seahawks have no incentive to pile up a big victory here. They clinched a playoff spot this past week. Even if they beat the Cardinals the best they can be is a No. 5 seed. That means the Seahawks may not play Russell Wilson and some of their other key players the entire game. The Seahawks are not some dominant, elite team. Their defense is opportunistic rather than outstanding with 24 takeaways. The Cardinals have better talent than their record shows with David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Chandler Jones and Patrick Peterson. Arizona nearly forced overtime in the first meeting. The Seahawks won, 20-17, on a 52-year field goal with no time left. The Seahawks have won nine games. Only two of those victories, though, were by more than 14 points.
12-30-18	Dolphins v. Bills -3	Top	17-42	Win	100	140 h 13 m	Show
The Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 12 road games. They are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS in their past six away matchups. The Dolphins are not going to the playoffs and likely will have a new coach and management team in place next season. The warm-weathered Dolphins have no interest in traveling to Buffalo where the forecast is for temperatures in the 20's with wind and a 30 percent chance of snow. That's the situational aspect. The fundamental matchup is the Bills have the superior defense and a far more mobile quarterback. Miami ranks third-from-the-bottom in both yards allowed and fewest yards gained. Ryan Tanneheill is a mediocre quarterback, who is even less effective because of a sore ankle. He has been sacked 20 times in the last five games. Buffalo ranks No. 1 in pass defense and also gives up the second-fewest yards in the league. The Bills' defense is far more respectable than Miami's. Josh Allen provides a spark for the Bills on offense. He's already one of the best running quarterbacks having rushed for 100 yards twice this season. The Bills outgained the Dolphins, 415-175, when the teams met in Week 13. The Dolphins won, though, 21-17. The Bills should have taken a late lead but Charles Clay dropped a throw in the end zone with 53 seconds left.
12-29-18	Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 57	Top	3-30	Win	100	21 h 17 m	Show
Clemson's Travis Etienne and Notre Dame's Dexter Williams are two excellent running backs. I expect a lot of carries for these two backs given the high quality of these defenses and the inexperience of each team's quarterback when going against an elite defense. Running the ball eats clock. So given this high of a total, Under is the way to go. Notre Dame ranks 10th in scoring defense allowing just 17.2 points a game. The Irish do not give up big plays, which has been a staple of Clemson's quick-strike offense. Clemson also doesn't give up big plays. The Tigers rank fourth in the country in both fewest yards and fewest points allowed. I don't see Notre Dame QB Ian Book having too much success against the Tigers. The Irish defense, with their strong defensive front, can contain Clemson freshman QB Trevor Lawrence.
12-29-18	South Carolina v. Virginia +5		0-28	Win	100	17 h 16 m	Show
Virginia has steadily improved under Bronco Mendenhall. The Cavaliers reached a bowl game last season and now they are ready to win one after getting crushed by Navy, 49-7, in a bowl game that was more like a home game for the Midshipmen. South Carolina has a strong passing attack. However the Gamecocks have two things against them. They won't have their best wideout, Deebo Samuel, who is sitting out for personal reasons. And they are facing a strong Virginia secondary that ranked 14th in the nation in pass defense. The Cavaliers have an excellent quarterback in Bryce Perkins, a dual threat who accounted for 3,314 all-purpose yards and 31 touchdowns. South Carolina will be without two injured defensive starters, too, tackle Javon Kinlaw and cornerback Keisean Nixon.
12-28-18	Iowa State +3 v. Washington State	Top	26-28	Win	100	80 h 16 m	Show
There are many reasons to like Iowa State against Washington State especially when the wrong team is favored. Iowa State played in the tougher conference and faced a tougher schedule. The Pac-12 was extremely weak this year. Washington State is a one-dimensional passing team. This is a reflection on its coach, Mike Leach. Iowa State is used to facing passing teams being in the Big 12. The Cyclones have a solid defense. They held West Virginia and Baylor to 14 points each. If the Cyclones can stop Will Grier like they did, they can slow down Gardner Minshew. I find Leach to be an overrated coach. I base much of this opinion on his being 1-7 ATS in his last eight bowl games. The long layoff from the end of the regular season to the bowl game is a real negative for Washington State, throwing off its timing in the passing game. The Cougars are averaging just 16.3 points during their past three bowl games. Washington State was hoping to play in the Rose Bowl. The Cougars had to settle for this minor Alamo Bowl game after losing 28-15 at home to long-time Pac 12 rival Washington. So the Cougars may not be fully motivated. Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy proved himself this season with a 16-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in eight games. He has a pair of tremendous skill position weapons in running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Hakeem Butler. I also like Iowa State coach Matt Campbell. His Cyclones have covered 69 percent of the time in the 36 past instances when they were underdogs of three points or higher.
12-27-18	Duke +3.5 v. Temple	Top	56-27	Win	100	23 h 39 m	Show
Care to lay points with an 8-4 American Athletic Conference school against an Atlantic Coast Conference opponent, who owns victories this season against bowl teams Army, Northwestern, Baylor, Georgia Tech and Miami? I sure don't. That's one reason I'm taking the points with Duke against Temple in the Independence Bowl. Please note this game goes early Thursday. The Blue Devils are going for their third straight bowl win. They have a tremendous bowl and underdog coach in David Cutcliffe, whose teams have covered 60 percent of the time the past 80 times they have been underdogs. Cutcliffe's teams are 8-2 ATS, too, in bowl games. Temple, by contrast, has a messed-up coaching situation. Ed Foley will be coaching just his second game as Owls head coach Geoff Collins left for Georgia Tech. The Owls' biggest wins were against Maryland, which finished with a losing record in the down Big Ten, and Houston. The Cougars just got blasted, 70-14, by Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. It's clear Duke has played a far tougher schedule. Blue Devils quarterback Daniel Jones is a pro prospect. Wrong team favored in my view.

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