Forget that the Saints have beaten Atlanta in 11 of the past 13 meetings, including edging the Falcons, 31-27, in Week 10 thanks to a late goal line stand.

The Falcons are the right play for many reasons not just being the home Thursday team and having a revenge angle. They are a far better team than the Saints, who have only outgained their opponents twice all season.

The Falcons' defense is of the bend-don't-break variety, but it still ranks light years ahead of the Saints' terrible defense. New Orleans ranks among the three worst defensive teams in both passing yardage and rushing yardage. The Saints can't stop the run, which is going to make Matt Ryan even more effective off play-action.

The Saints can only stay with high-octane offenses by scoring a lot of points. Drew Brees, however, isn't as dominant on the road as he is in the Louisiana Superdome. New Orleans also has a cluster injury problem in its offensive line. The Saints just lost right tackle Bryce Harris for the season with a broken leg. They also have two other offensive linemen injured so there's a distinct possibility they could be starting a fourth-stringer at tackle.

Then there's the situational element. The Falcons are thirsting for revenge. They want to show off on national TV against their long-time hated Southern rival. The Saints are down mentally having lost at home to the 49ers this past Sunday in a must win spot. It's very tough for them to travel and play on Thursday after taking on the punishing 49ers.

Obviously the folks behind Monday Night Football didn't see Carolina being 2-8 and Philadelphia being 3-7 when they sceduled this Week 12 matchup.

But the disappointing records of these two teams could play a part in this game going over as neither team has anything to lose so they might as well try to be entertaining.

This is a very low total considering the quality of skill position talent playing and the lack of defense they'll be facing. The Panthers are yielding 24.3 points per game, while the Eagles give up 25.2 per contest. If those numbers hold the combined total would be above 49.

The Eagles defense has seemed to given up permitting an average of 31.7 points in their last four games. Philadelphia doesn't generate a pass rush and its secondary is the most overrated in the NFL. The Eagles have faced four strong quarterbacks during the last four weeks, but the numbers they've given up are absolutely hideous - a combined passer rating of 143.6 and an 11-to-0 touchdown passes allowed to interceptions ratio.

Cam Newton isn't having nearly the rookie season he had last year, but he's far from a stiff. The Panthers go three deep at running back and Newton ranks with Robert Griffin III as the best running quarterback. Philadelphia ranks 19th versus the run. So Newton should be able to effectively pass out of play-action.

The Eagles' offense has suffered due to a cluster injury problem in their offense line. It's a problem, yes. They also won't have Michael Vick nor LeSean McCoy. Yet I still see the Eagles getting enough points to help push this game over. This will be Nick Foles' second start and first at home. He has a big-play receiving threat in DeSean Jackson. Carolina doesn't have an imposing secondary. The Eagles run a fast-break style of offense that is favorable to their quarterback.

The Eagles aren't very good - and that was before losing Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy. Their 3-7 record is justified and even a little lucky as their three victories have been by a combined four points. The Eagles last won in Week 4.

Carolina has even a worse record at 2-8. But the Panthers have been far more competitive. They are far closer to being a .500 team than Philadelphia. The Panthers have blown five fourth-quarter leads. They should have beaten the Falcons, Seahawks, Bears and Buccaneers, four teams with a combined mark of 28-12.

The Eagles' defense has fallen apart surrendering an average of 31.7 points per game during the last four weeks. Opposing quarterbacks have compiled a 143.6 passing mark against the Eagles during this span with 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Eagles' offense consists of a rookie quarterback making his second start filling in for Michael Vick, a rookie running back making his first start filling in for LeSean McCoy and a patchwork offensive line consisting of castoffs and draft busts.

The Panthers have 26 sacks led by Charles Johnson, one of the better defensive lineman in the NFL. Nick Foles completed just two passes for five yards to his main wide receivers, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, last week against the Redskins, who rank last in pass defense.

Carolina has three good runners along with Cam Newton, who ranks with Robert Griffin III as among the best two running quarterbacks in the league. The Eagles are 19th versus the run. So the Panther should have a balanced attack working.

It's difficult to predict turnovers, but the Eagles are minus 14 in takeaways/giveaways. The Panthers have lost the ball 11 fewer times than the Eagles.

With more at stake than the Packers, I see the Giants stepping up and playing much better than they have been. This is a statement game for the Giants and is the time of year when they make their move.

The Giants are the Super Bowl champs and have the confidence of knowing they beat the Packers, 37-20, on the road in the playoffs last season. The Giants are anxious to put behind their worst effort of the year in their last game, a horrendous 31-13 road loss to the Bengals. The Giants are off a bye and far healthier than the Packers, who likely will be missing Clay Matthews along with Charles Woodson, Greg Jennings and Bryan Bulaga.

The Packers have been fortunate to beat the Jaguars, Cardinals and Lions in their last three games. They've been just getting by rather than playing well.

This is a tough matchup for Green Bay, which is trying to get by with two offensive line starters playing out of position due to the loss of right tackle Bulaga. The Giants have the dominant pass rushers to take advantage. New York also has the better ground attack and placekicker.

These edges, along with home-field and motivation, are enough for the Giants to win by more than a field goal.

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Only the Cardinals, with their inept quarterback and offensive line play, could go plus 5 in turnover ratio and lose like they did last week against the Falcons.

That was the Cardinals' sixth consecutive loss. The Cardinals are playing far worse now then when they met the Rams in Week 5 as a 4-0 team and were whipped, 17-3. Kevin Kolb was the Cardinals quarterback in that game. Now it's rookie Ryan Lindley making his first pro start - and the Cardinals are wishing it were Kolb again.

The Cardinals have bee held to less than 300 total yards of offense in 70 percent of their games. And that was with Kolb, a legitimate starting NFL quarterback although certain a lower tier one, and with battle-tested backup John Skelton. Lindley didn't come close to beating out either of these two weak quarterbacks.

But even Aaron Rodgers would have trouble putting up points behind the Cardinals' offensive line, which is the worst pass protecting unit in the league.

Arizona has a decent defense, but it's wearing out from being on the field so much. The Rams have the much better quarterback, Sam Bradford, and running back, Steven Jackson, who is averaging 4.3 yards during his past 70 carries. The Cardinals rank a mediocre 20th versus the run. It's a plus if Danny Amendola is able to play. The Rams are 5-2 ATS when Amendola is in the lineup.

Look for Jeff Fisher to have the Rams fired up after they laid an egg at home last week as 3 1/2-point favorites against the Jets. Under Fisher, the Rams are 6-3 ATS when getting points.

The Cardinals have been awful as chalk under Ken Whisenhunt going 1-8-2 ATS,including 0-3 ATS this season.

Greg Schiano has toughened Tampa Bay up and Josh Freeman is riding a hot hand. But let's keep things in proper perspective. The Falcons are a much better team than the Buccaneers.

The Falcons have a top 10 defense, including ranking seventh in pass defense. The Buccaneers are very stout against the run, but they lack a pass rush and rank last in pass defense.

Tampa Bay doesn't have nearly the defensive backfield depth to keep up with the Falcons' up-tempo two-minute offense run to near-perfection in most weeks by MVP candidate Matt Ryan. The Bucs' most talented cornerback, Aqib Talib was traded to New England and Eric Wright isn't likely to play due to an Achilles' injury.

The Falcons have proven that playing on an off-surface isn't a hindrance. They have covered in their last five grass games. Atlanta also is 9-3 ATS in its past 12 road contests. The Falcons were very fortunate to win last week after committing six turnovers. They haven't had back-to-back poor performances all season.

The Buccaneers haven't had a strong home-field advantage covering just 28 percent of the time at Raymond James Stadium in their last 32 home contests.

Yes, Idaho is garbage. That actually works to the Vandals' advantage, though, taking these many points.

Utah State is coming off a 48-41 overtime win against then No. 19-ranked Louisiana Tech this past Saturday. That victory put the Aggies into some heady territory such as a share of the WAC title, gave them their first victory on the road versus a ranked opponent and elevated them into a tie for the No. 25 spot in the Top 25 poll.

So the Aggies can be excused for not taking the Vandals serious as they celebrate a glorious week. Idaho has lost five in a row, but showed some offensive life last week against Texas-San Antonio with a quarterback switch to Taylor Davis, who completed 18 of 29 for 223 yards with three touchdowns.

Idaho has played Utah State tough the past two seasons winning at Romney Stadium 28-6 in 2010 as 2 1/2-point 'dogs and losing last year in double overtime, 49-42, as 9 1/2-point 'dogs. Sure Utah State is much more improved this season, but this spread still is too high especially considering the situational aspects and past history.

The Jets temporarily saved their season by defeating St. Louis this past Sunday as a underdog. The Rams are a team the Patriots destroyed by 38 points in London.

The problem for the Jets, though, isn't just a divided locker room and serious chemistry issues. It's lack of talent on both sides of the ball. The Jets just aren't very good. New England is. New York is just 4-9 in its last 13 games.

The Patriots are No. 1 in points scored and total offense. Losing Rob Gronkowski isn't going to hurt them so much because their offense is very diversified. They have a strong enough running attack where defenses just can't tee off on Tom Brady.

The Jets have a pop-gun attack. Mark Sanchez may be the least accurate quarterback in the league and could have the worst set of receivers in the NFL. The Patriots are averaging 47 points in their last three games. There's no way the Jets can keep up that pace.

There's certainly no love lost either between these two division rivals so don't expect Bill Belichick to take it easy on big-mouth Rex Ryan. The Patriots have covered in nine of their last 11 road games against the Jets.

Dallas has failed to cover in its last seven home games and will be missing DeMarco Murray and left tackle Tyron Smith.

Still, the price is right to back Dallas at Cowboys Stadium against a Redskins squad that has a great talent in Robert Griffin III, but is highly flawed in many areas.

The Cowboys have the much stronger defense and the advantage of not having to travel on a short week. Tony Romo has far superior receivers than Griffin. Romo and the Cowboys committed 19 turnovers in their first seven games, but have turned the ball over just once in their past three games.

Romo can easily attack a Washington secondary that ranks 29th in pass defense. The Redskins can't help their weak coverage unit because their best pass rushers have been lost for the season.

The Texans had a scare nearly falling to Jacksonville at home this past Sunday. But the Texans remain in the argument for best team in the NFL. They are scoring the third-most points in the league at 29.3 per game while giving up the third fewest at 18 a game.

Detroit is perceived as being a decent team and tough on Thanksgiving. Neither is true. The Lions are 9-13 in their last 22 games. They are under .500 this year. The Lions have been turkeys on Thanksgiving losing eight straight times.

Matthew Stafford is having a down season with 12 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. The Lions have a below average ground attack and will be missing veteran left tackle Jeff Backus, which makes them even more vulnerable to J.J. Watt.

The Texans can attack the Lions' weak secondary through the air with a fully healthy Andre Johnson or run Arian Foster.

The price is cheap to get the far superior team in the Texans.

The combination of being at home and facing backup quarterback Jason Campbell still doesn't make the 49ers a full touchdown better than the Bears.

Campbell is going to be better than he looked against Houston last week having had a full week to practice with the first team and get his timing down. The 49ers are excellent against the run, but they can be passed on. Campbell is a low tier starting caliber NFL quarterback. The Bears are fortunate to have him as a backup. He can be effective if he has weapons and he has them with Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte.

The 49ers have allowed three runners to run for 100 yards against them in their last four games. As good as San Francisco's defense is it doesn't produce the takeaways Chicago's defense does, nor does it get that many sacks.

The 49ers don't have a dominant passing attack and are very conservative. They are not the right team to lay a touchdown with against another good team.

Once you get a total this low, almost everything has to go right for the under to come in no matter how dominant the defenses look on paper.

I don't see everything going according to script in this matchup.

Both are run-first teams. However, today's rules are so skewed in favor of the offense that defenses, no matter how good, are at a real disadvantage.

Jason Campbell is going to be better than he looked against Houston last week having had a full week to practice with the first team and get his timing down. The 49ers are excellent against the run, but they can be passed on.

It's not a given either that the 49ers will stuff Matt Forte and Matt Bush. Three runners have rushed for 100 yards against the 49ers during the past four games.

Campbell has some short yardage touch and already has developed some chemistry with Brandon Marshall. The Bears' passing attack also will be helped with the return of Alshon Jeffery.

The Bears' defense dominance comes from takeaways rather than completely shutting down foes. Chicago has returned seven of its league-leading 19 interceptions back for touchdowns. Of course a pick-six is alive in this matchup and would be a welcome sight going over the total, but the 49ers are a conservative team.

A dowhhill physical running team such as the 49ers can present problems to the Bears' aging defense, though.

There are some excellent return kick and punt returners in this matchup, too. So special team scores are in the mix.

The Colts have made for a nice feel-good story winning four in a row behind their star rookie quarterback for their sick coach.

The fairy tale, though, ends in Foxboro when the Colts go up against a real offense.

The Colts' four straight victories have come against the following quarterbacks: Brandon Weeden, Matt Hasselbeck, Ryan Tannehill and Blaine Gabbert. If there's a worse starting quarterback in the AFC than Gabbert I've yet to see him. Weeden and Tannehill are error-prone rookies, while Hasselbeck is washed up.

Indy's defense is a work in progress in the first year of a 4-3 after more than a decade of playing Cover-2. The Colts are no match for New England's No. 1 ranked offense, which rates first in scoring and yardage. Tom Brady can burn the Colts' base defense with passes to Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker, or he can turn loose a much-improved Stevan Ridley if the Colts go to any sub-packages. The Colts don't have nearly the depth or talent to hang with the Patriots' high-powered attack.

Andrew Luck already is very good. He's covering up the fact than the Colts don't have a good ground game and have only one decent receiver. That's Reggie Wayne and he's past his prime. Luck has played well inside his home dome with an 88.6 passer rating and 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Away from home, though, Luck hasn't been so good with a 66.2 passer rating and seven interceptions with just two touchdown throws. The Colts have turned the ball over 12 times on the road compared to just three times at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Patriots rarely lose at home as evidenced by their NFL-best 70-14 regular-season in Foxboro since 2002.

Perhaps swayed by a quarterback duel between Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning, the oddsmakers opened this game too high.

The turnover-prone Chargers have become more of a running team, though. Rivers isn't what he was two years ago and his wide receivers aren't as good minus the departed Vincent Jackson.

The Chargers are just a middle-of-the-road offensive club. Their defense, though, ranks seventh in total yardage. They are the second most difficult team to run on. Peyton Manning's play-action passes are less effective if Willis McGahee isn't picking up yards on the ground, which is going to be difficult to do versus the Chargers.

Manning gets all the attention. But Denver has a very solid defense ranking in the top 11 in all the major statistical categories. Von Miller is in the discussion for most effective pass rushing linebacker and Champ Bailey is still a lock-down cornerback.

Rivers is going to be hampered if his left tackle, Jared Gaither, has to miss another week.

The weather in Denver also can turn tricky this time of year.

Things are looking up for the Saints. They've won four of their last five and just dealt the Falcons their first loss. But the Saints are in a tough spot here and they don't have the defense to make up for it.


New Orleans is flying cross-country and will be playing outdoors on grass. The Saints are a dome team that plays faster on carpet. They are 1-3 in their grass games this season, including losing to 2-7 Carolina.


Not only is this a prime letdown spot for the Saints - who probably are overconfident after seeing Baltimore score 55 points on Oakland this past Sunday - but also in a look ahead spot, too. The Saints' next two games after this one are home against San Francisco and a rematch with their arch-rivals the Falcons.


The Raiders laid an egg against Baltimore. But they have a dangerous passing attack with speed on the flanks, perhaps the best kicker/punter tandem and are 4-2 ATS the past six times they've been underdogs.


Drew Brees is a great quarterback inside the Louisiana Superdome. He's not as great away from home. Yet Brees has to be near perfect along with the rest of his offense to carry such a weak defense. The Saints rank either last or second-to-last in total defense, pass defense and run defense. They are giving up more than 28 points per game and are on pace to surrender the most yards in a single season.

The bad news for the Lions is it's desperation time. They are in a must-win situation and facing Green Bay, a team they've lost to 12 of the last 13 times.

The good news for the Lions is they are home and catch the Packers down nine starters and without many of their key players, including Clay Matthews, Bryan Bulaga, Greg Jennings and Charles Woodson.

The Packers have very little pass rush without Matthews. Matthew Stafford has been hot and can take advantage with a clean pocket and going after a youthful secondary minus their leader, Woodson.

The Packers have been flat the last couple of weeks. They were fortunate to enter their bye having faced Jacksonville and Arizona at home. Those are two of the most inept offenses in the NFL. Facing the Lions and dealing with Calvin Johnson is going to be quite a change and challenge for the Packers.

The early betting marketplace activity on this game has been on the under with the thinking being the Eagles' offense will suffer with rookie Nick Foles replacing injured Michael Vick.

The Eagles do have a cluster injury situation with their offensive line. A rookie quarterback behind a makeshift offensive line usually is not a good combo.

But I disagree with the early over/under money on this game. The total now is low enough to play over.

These are two bad defenses. The Eagles are a fast-tempo, passing team built to attack. That's not going to change with Foles behind center. He's a very good prospect who shined during preseason. Foles has plenty of weapons and is operating against the third-worst pass defense in the NFL. The Redskins have given up an NFL-high 20 touchdowns through the air.

The Redskins are yielding 27.6 points per game. The Eagles give up 24.6 points a game. That adds up to a combined 52 points.

Robert Griffin III should have a big game against Philadelphia's faltering defense, which lacks a good pass rush and has an overrated secondary. The reeling Eagles have surrendered an average of 30.5 points during their past four games.

A lopsided victory against Indiana doesn't mean Wisconsin is a great team. Sure, playing in Madison means something. But the Badgers still shouldn't be favored against Ohio State.

Wisconsin is one-dimensional. All the Badgers can do is run the ball. Ohio State's strength is stopping the run. The Badgers don't have the passing attack to exploit the Buckeyes' weakness, which is pass defense.

The Buckeyes have Braxton Miller and a coaching edge with Urban Meyer. The Badgers are down to their third-string quarterback. The Buckeyes have played their best versus offenses similar to Wisconsin's pro-style attack. Another plus for Ohio State is the return of senior linebacker Etienne Sabino from a broken leg.

The 10-0 Buckeyes come in rested after being idle last week. Meyer has it in for Wisconsin coach Bret Bielema, who indirectly accused Meyer of unethically chasing after recruits who had already committed to other Big Ten schools.

The Badgers' last five opponents have been Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan State and Indiana. Those are five of the worst offenses in the Big Ten. They haven't faced a quarterback the caliber of Miller during this span.

It's easy to understand why Temple is 10-4 under in its last 14 road games and Army has gone under in 20 of its last 27 home matchups.

Both are conservative, grind it out on the ground type of teams. Temple has trouble converting on third down and Army can't score touchdowns inside the red zone.

Army is last in pass completions in the NCAA and ranks 89th in scoring. Temple is even worse. The Owls rate last in total offense and are 103rd in points scored.

This game will determine who wins the West Division in the MAC and Northern Illinois is the team to back. As anyone who follows the MAC knows, Northern Illinois has been a huge money-maker this season going 8-1-1 ATS. The Huskies have covered in their last six games, five as double-digit favorites. The Huskies have the nation's longest home winning streak at 20 games and have covered 11 of the past 14 times as a conference home favorite.

Now Northern Illinois gets to show how good it is on national television. It's a showcase game, too, for Huskies quarterback Jordan Lynch, who ranks fourth the country in total offense with 3,517 yards. He leads all quarterbacks in rushing with 1,342 yards and has accounted for a nation-best 35 all-purpose touchdowns. He also hasn't been picked off in his last six games.

Toledo has a good offense, but its defense ranks 106th in the country in yards allowed per game and 116th in passing yards. Lynch should have no trouble torching the Rockets' secondary. The Rockets are 2-5 ATS when facing a foe with a winning record.

The two teams have had four common foes - Central Michigan, Ball State, Buffalo and Western Michigan.Northern Illinois outscored these opponents by 99 points. Toledo outscored the same four foes by 33 points.

It has to be a mental downer for the Rockets that school officials decided not to send their marching band to DeKalb for the game.

I know. I know. It's hard to get away from those 29 giveaways and unworldly minus 20 turnover ratio when making a case for the Chiefs. Poor coaching doesn't help the argument either.

At some point, though, the turnover ratio has to come down because the Chiefs actually have a decent defense ranking 13th in yardage. That start could come here because the Steelers have created just eight turnovers, which was second-fewest in the league entering this Week 10. The Steelers are even in takeaways/giveaways so they're not particularly opportunistic.

There's a certain randomness to turnovers, even when discussing the Chiefs. So let's turn to matchup, injuries and situation.

Pittsburgh is a good, but far from great team at 5-3. They have lost to the Titans and Raiders, who are a combined 7-12. The Steelers have gained just 78 yards more than their opponents, which comes out to less than 10 yards more per game. Pittsburgh's average win margin is nine points.

The Chiefs are healthier than Pittsburgh. They also have by far the best running back in Jamaal Charles. The Steelers are missing several key players, including Troy Polamalu, offensive tackle Marcus Gilbert and Antonio Brown, their second-best wideout.

Thankfully this is the Chiefs' last stand-alone nationally televised game. So Kansas City shouldn't lack for motivation to show the nation they are better than its 1-7 record and not the worst team in the NFL. Talent-wise, the Chiefs are far better than Jacksonville, the other contender for worst team.

Pittsburgh is off a big upset road win against the Giants. Up next for the Steelers is a Sunday night home game against Baltimore in a division showdown game. That game is far bigger than this one. So even though this is a Monday night game, it's still not the greatest situational spot for the Steelers.

Chicago has a great knack for coming up with touchdowns on defense putting up seven scores. But let's knock off all this talk about the Bears being one of the greatest defensive units ever.

The Bears have a number of name defensive players, but Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Julius Peppers are all past their prime. Chicago has beaten only one team with a winning record and that was the Colts.

Chicago's offense isn't anything special with a leaky offensive line, only one good receiver and a streak quarterback, Jay Cutler, who hasn't been a winner his entire career. The Bears' defense has set up their offense with an NFL-best 28 forced turnovers.

Chicago plays a conservative Cover-2 style defense that chokes off big-plays and takes advantage of impatient, inaccurate quarterbacks. The Texans, though, are a conservative, grind-it-out team that uses the run to set up the pass not the other way around. The Texans can do that because they have the best running back in football, Arian Foster. The Texans don't turn the ball over as evidenced by their league-low six turnovers.

Without the benefit of a turnover edge, I don't see the Bears winning this game. Houston has the more talent - on both sides of the ball. The Bears have surrendered 14 sacks in their last three games. The Texans have only given up 10 sacks all season. J.J. Watt has more sacks than the Texans have allowed.

This is a big road test on the national stage for Houston. But the Texans have won seven of their last eight road matchups and are anxious to redeem themselves on national TV after an embarrassing Sunday night home loss to Green Bay three weeks ago.

Houston also is 10-1 the past 11 times Matt Schuab has been under center.

The Lions are playing well and coming on. It's just the opposite with the Vikings.


Matthew Stafford didn't play well early. But he's a stud and is getting hot completing 68 percent of his passes during the past two weeks for 637 yards and three touchdowns. Christian Ponder is totally going the opposite direction. He's completed 51 percent of his passes for 372 yards in his last three games. This mark is especially alarming since Ponder is a dink-and-dunker. He's been picked off six times in his last four games.


The Vikings' offense entirely consists of Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin. The Lions, who have a solid front seven, obviously are going to stack the line against Peterson. Harvin is extremely banged-up and may not play.


Minnesota has dropped three of its last four. Its lone victory during this span was against Arizona at home and the Cardinals outgained the Vikings by 150 yards. The Vikings have lost to the Redskins by 12, to Tampa Bay by 19 at home and last week lost by 10 at Seattle.


The Lions had an easy time beating up on Jacksonville last Sunday. The big news from that game was Mikel Leshoure scoring three touchdowns on the ground. The Vikings have allowed four straight 100-yard rushers. They've given up 663 yards on the ground in their last four games and six rushing touchdowns.


The Lions weren't playing nearly as well as they are now when they lost 20-13 to the Vikings in Week 4. Still, they held the Vikings to two field goals and 227 yards on offense. The Vikings won by returning both a punt AND kickoff back for touchdowns. That's not likely to occur again as the Lions have fixed their special team problems.

Taking advantage of some bad defenses, the Buccaneers are averaging 36 points in their last four games. That's impressive no matter who the competition is. Josh Freeman and Doug Martin have been impressive, too, during this span.

But now the oddsmaker has caught up to Tampa Bay assigning the Buccaneers their highest over/under in a matchup not involving the Saints. This one comes against San Diego, which has a very respectable defense. The Chargers rank No. 4 versus the run and are in the top 10 in total defense and fewest points allowed.

Freeman and Martin are not nearly as talented as their recent numbers indicate. They are due for a huge regression and I see it happening here. Martin is going to find little running room against a Charger rush defense yielding 84 yards per game. The Chargers' secondary is going to be pumped to take on former teammate Vincent Jackson. Keep in mind, too, the Buccaneers are operating without their two best offensive linemen, Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks. Both guards are out for the season. That didn't matter for the Buccaneers against the Raiders last week, but it will in this matchup.

The Chargers' offense is much less effective when left tackle Jared Gaither is out. He's Philip Rivers' blindside protector. Rivers' yardage and passing completion are down when Gaither has missed games. Rivers' touchdown-to-interception ratio is 6-to-3 when Gaither has been in the lineup and 6-to-7 when he's been out. Gaither won't start because he has a sore groin and is unlikely to play.

Tampa Bay's defensive strength is stopping the run. The Buccaneers are giving up 77.1 yards on the ground per game, fewer than any team. The Chargers have gone conservative in light of Rivers' many turnovers. Ryan Mathews is the focal point of their offense. He's a fumbler and not an elite back. San Diego ranks just 26th in total offense. The Chargers also have a history of coming out flat when playing an early game with a three-hour time difference than what they are used to.

The Buccaneers' secondary can be passed on, but Rivers doesn't have the weapons he used to and he has been turnover prone. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is just 12-to-10. The Buccaneers caught a break in that cornerback Eric Wright has yet to be suspended, which may happen after this game.

This is one of the higher totals of the season, but still it's not high enough. This is going to be a first-rate shootout between two very good offenses facing two soft defenses. The Saints are giving up 471.3 yards per game, the most by far of any team. The Saints are believed to be the first team in NFL history to yield 400 yards in each of their first eight games.


The Saints don't generate a pass rush, tackle poorly and have a porous secondary. They haven't been very good defensively at home either giving up 4.9 yards per run, 9.75 yards per pass attempt and allowing road quarterbacks to average 124 for their quarterback rating. New Orleans has managed just three sacks in its four home contests.


Neither team can stop the run ranking last and second to last in the NFC. This should set up effective play-action passing from Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, two of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL this season.


Brees was sharp this past Monday at home against the Eagles. He has his full set of wide receivers. Although Darren Sproles is out, the Saints are deep at running back. Look for Saints tight end Jimmy Graham to have another monster game as star Falcons linebacker Sean Weatherspoon is out with an ankle injury. Weatherspoon was a key in Atlanta's coverage schemes.

Kudos to San Diego State on upsetting 19th-ranked Boise State on the road last Saturday. That very well may have been the greatest victory in San Diego State football history. It's the first time the Aztecs ever beat a top-25 team on the road.

The Aztecs are the toast of the town returning home. Unfortunately for them, they have a decent Air Force team to play. The Falcons are off a bad loss to Army that ended a three-game winning streak. The Falcons have double revenge motivation against San Diego State, not to mention a shot at capturing the Mountain West Conference as the Falcons are 4-1 in league.

Army played well and Air Force was flat. I don't see the Falcons being flat in this matchup. Air Force owns a victory against Nevada and nearly upset Michigan on the road losing by six points and coming within six yards of out-gaining the Wolverines. Army was the first team to stop Air Force's vaunted option attack forcing the Falcons to pass way too many times.

Neither Air Force nor San Diego State passes well. This is a game that is going to be decided in the pits. Not only does San Diego State need to get focused, but the Aztecs must deal with Air Force's unique option attack that features more toss sweeps than a normal triple option offense.

Air Force quarterback Connor Dietze has a 10-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has completed 62 percent of his passes, which will keep San Diego State's defense from keying on Cody Getz. Getz played last week after being out. He was rusty. He should be better this week. Getz ranks 11th in the country in rushing averaging 118.9 yards per game.

San Diego State does have a strong run defense. So this is going to be Air Force's strength versus San Diego's strength. What Air Force has going is a tremendous situational spot. That factor is huge and can't be minimized.

The Saints' season. Michael Vick's starting job. A lot is at stake in this matchup and these two desperate teams are going to attack with everything they have.

The Eagles have dumbed-down their offense to try to limit Vick's turnovers. That's not the right approach because Vick is ineffective when playing tentative. The Eagles are going to turn Vick loose to see if they can indeed win with him and live with his reckless style. I see Vick coming up big - aided by going against a defense that is on pace to allow the most yards in a single season.

The Saints can't rush the passer and ranked second to last in pass defense entering this week. Their run defense rates even worse - being last giving up 170.1 yards on the ground. New Orleans is giving up an average of five yards per carry. Only the Bills have given up more rushing touchdowns.

LeSean McCoy is one of the top five running backs in football. So all the pressure isn't on Vick. The Saints won't be able to key just on Vick.

While the Saints are giving up 30.9 points per game, they also are averaging 27.1 points and feature the No. 1 passing attack. Drew Brees is especially effective when playing inside the fast track of the Louisiana Superdome where he's thrown 29 touchdown passes in his last eight home games. The Saints, thanks to Brees, are averaging 37.7 points in these past eight home games.

The Eagles switched defensive coordinators during their bye two weeks ago. They found last week that it's their players and not the scheme that is bad. The Falcons scored on their first six possessions against the Eagles last week. The Eagles don't generate much of a pass rush and their secondary is vastly overrated particularly Nnamdi Asomugha.

The Eagles can't stop high-powered passing attacks, especially on the road on carpet. Don't be intimidated by this big total. It would be a surprise if either of these teams didn't put up at least 28 points.

This is a horrible spot for the Cardinals traveling on a short week following an emotional and physical pounding during Monday night home loss to San Francisco.

The Cardinals' scheme-based defense was exposed by Alex Smith. Now the Cardinals are going to get lit up by Aaron Rodgers, who is as accurate as they come. Rodgers is hot, too, with 11 touchdown passes in his last three games. It doesn't matter if Jordy Nelson can't play a second straight week because the Packers have the deepest set of receivers in the league.

The Cardinals have scored just 36 points in their last five games. They've allowed 33 sacks during this span. They're going to encounter plenty of problems keeping NFC sacks leader Clay Matthews in check.

Arizona doesn't have the necessary quality ground game to keep Rodgers off the field. The Packers were flat last week against Jacksonville. Mike McCarthy will have them playing much better this week heading into their bye next week.

The Cardinals don't have their bye until next week. Their defense is getting worn down after playing eight straight weeks and being on the field most of the time. Traveling with short rest after playing Monday night doesn't help.

Aaron Rodgers is red-hot again with 11 touchdown throws in his last three games. The Packers won't have Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson may sit a second straight week. That won't slow down Rodgers. He has the deepest set of receivers in the league. Randall Cobb is blossoming into a star with increased playing time.

The Cardinals are going to be passing a lot, too. The Packers' secondary is vulnerable without Charles Woodson. Green Bay also has lost two of its three best linebackers.

The weather in Green Bay is going to be fine with sun, temperatures in the high 30s and little wind.

There's a class difference not reflected in the spread. The Bears are a solid team with a strong defense. The Titans are weak on both sides of the ball.

Tennessee quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is past his prime. He's no longer able to drive the ball relying on Chris Johnson and a dink-and-dunk passing attack. That's not going to get the job done against the Bears.

Chicago is giving up just 14.3 points per game and ranks No. 1 versus the run allowing less than 78 yards on the ground per game. The Titans have scored fewer than 14 points in three of the four games when Johnson has failed to rush for 90 yards.

The Bears have the most interceptions in the NFL. They have 23 takeaways, second-most in the league. The Titans are minus 3 in turnover ratio. Making things worse, is Tennessee has a cluster injury problem in its offensive line.

The Titans are giving up 32.1 points per game. Only Buffalo is giving up more per game at 32.4. The Titans have just 11 sacks.

The Bears have dangerous skill position players in Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte. Chicago's problem has been pass protection. That won't be an issue, though, against the Titans' non-existent pass rush.

The Bears have won five in a row. They received a scare last week at home against Carolina in a game they should have lost. The Bears rarely are flat two weeks in a row. That game was their wake-up call.

Baltimore is just 5-6 in its last 11 road games, including 1-2 this season. But the Ravens still are much better than the Browns, a young team that tries but has no offense.

Cleveland is 2-12 in its last 14 games. The Browns aren't a good home team either going 5-9-2 ATS.

The Ravens have had two week to stew about being blown out at Houston in their last game. They made the mistake in that game of not running Ray Rice enough. That won't happen here.

The Ravens have key injuries on defense, but they do have back their best pass rusher, Terrell Suggs.

Baltimore has beaten Cleveland nine straight times, going 6-3 ATS. The Browns haven't broken the 17-point barrier during the past four years against the Ravens.

Jacksonville is the worst team in the NFL lacking talent and health on both sides of the ball. The Lions have their passing game going. Calvin Johnson is due for a breakout game and could get it against a beaten up Jacksonville secondary.

The Jagaurs have nothing going on offense without Maurice Jones-Drew. He was 41 percent of their offense. Blaine Gabbert is one of the least accurate passers in the NFL and he's playing with a torn labrum in his left shoulder.

The Jaguars have been outscored 95-20 in three games at home. They've lost every one of their home games by 17 or more points.

There's a huge class difference not reflected in the point spread.

Kudos to Notre Dame on its return to glory. But this is a king size letdown spot for the Irish after their tremendous 30-13 road win at then-No. 8 Oklahoma last Saturday.

Notre Dame's victory over Oklahoma was much closer than the final scores indicates. The Irish didn't wrap things up until late, the third straight week where they've had a close victory. The Irish nipped BYU, 17-14, two weeks ago by scoring a fourth-quarter touchdown and the week before that edged Stanford in overtime on a controversial finish.

So the Irish certainly can be excused if they don't bring their "A" game to this matchup. Pittsburgh is showing signs of coming on under first-year head coach Paul Chryst after opening 2-4. The Panthers have won and covered in their last two games beating Buffalo on the road and Temple posting their highest total against an FBC opponent in 13 years after destroying the Owls, 47-17.

Ray Graham, who was one of the top running backs in the country before getting hurt last year, had his best game of the year against the Owls rushing for 109 yards on 19 carries and scoring twice. Tino Sunseri has developed into a good quarterback with a 13-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while posting the eighth-best quarterback rating in the country at 164.8. He hasn't been intercepted in his last five games.

Pittsburgh has been playing good defense, too. The Panthers ranked 29th in total defense. They haven't given up more than 17 points in five of their last six games. Notre Dame is not an offensive Juggernaut averaging 26.4 points a game, which ranks 76th. The Irish are 97th in passing yards averaging less than 194 per game.

This non-conference game means a lot more to Pittsburgh than Notre Dame as the Panthers need two victories to gain bowl eligibility. Pittsburgh has a strong history of playing Notre Dame tough the past few years. The Panthers beat the Irish, 15-12, last season as 6 1/2-point favorites. So we're now seeing a difference of roughly 23 points in the line from last season. Two years ago, the Panthers lost by six to Notre Dame on the road and in 2009 lost to the Irish by five. The year before that it was a three-point Pittsburgh win.

Notre Dame has covered just one of its last five home games while Pittsburgh is 11-4-2 ATS as a road 'dog. Notre Dame traditionally has struggled versus Big East teams failing to cover the last nine times they were chalk against them. The Irish are 0-7-1 ATS during their past eight home contests versus Big East foes.

The Atlanta Falcons are 7-0 and have gained 87 more yards from scrimmage than their opponents.

The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-6 and have gained 130 more yards from scrimmage than their foes.

I point this out not to argue that the Chiefs are in any way better than the Falcons, but to show that statistically speaking Kansas City isn't that bad.

Talent isn't the problem with the Chiefs. Turnovers, caused by bonehead quarterback play, is the major reason why Kansas City has just one win. The Chiefs have by far the NFL's worst turnover differential at minus 18. Dallas is the next closest team at minus 11.

San Diego has a negative turnover ratio, too. The Chargers have almost been as disappointing as Kansas City. San Diego has lost three in a row, failing to score during the last six quarters. Philip Rivers hasn't been an elite quarterback for the past two years. He hasn't been any better than Matt Cassel when it comes to protecting the ball having turned it over 37 times in his last 23 games.

The two teams met in Week 4 and San Diego won, 37-20. That score is misleading, however. The Chiefs outgained the Chargers, but were done in by a minus-five turnover ratio.

I don't see the Chiefs committing nearly the turnovers they have because this week they have finally figured out that their best offense is featuring Jamaal Charles. Cassel is going to pick his spots and let Charles set him up rather than the other way around, which has been a disaster. I rank Charles as one of the four best running backs in the NFL.

If the Chiefs don't self-destruct they definitely can hang in if not win outright. The Chargers are far from a dominant team, have turnover problems themselves and are just as poorly coached.

It is a disadvantage to travel on a short week, but the Chiefs know the Chargers well being in the same division and having already played them this season. It's actually a plus for the Chiefs to get out of Kansas City where they are being heavily criticized.

The pressure in this matchup is all on the Chargers. Little is expected now of the Chiefs. They'll be motivated to prove themselves with a national TV audience viewing.

The Giants are the superior team and have covered the past seven times on the road, Dallas is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home matchups.

New York also has won and covered the last three times in Dallas. This is a big division revenge spot for the Giants. They've been pointing to this matchup ever since the Cowboys embarrassed them at home in Week 1 on national television.

Eli Manning is 25-5 in October. The Cowboys have lost nine of their last 11 games in October. Tony Romo already has nine interceptions. There's a difference in quality between these two quarterbacks just like there is in the teams.

The Cowboys are constantly overrated year after year. They've won one playoff game since 1997. They are just a .500 team since 2011. The Giants win Super Bowls. The Cowboys just talk about them.

New York's offenisve line has only allowed one sack during the last five weeks. The Giants are healthier than they've been while the Cowboys are dealing with injuries to their center, Phil Costa, and best running back, DeMarco Murray.

The marketplace has overcompensated on this total. It is now too low and worth playing over.

Last year, the Falcons and Eagles combined for 66 points in their matchup. That game was inside the Georgia Dome. This game is outdoors on a slower track. Rain is in the forecast, but it will not be cold weather.

The two offenses are much better than the defenses. The Falcons have become an up-tempo, no-huddle team with an emphasis on passing rather than employing more of a balanced attack. This change in philosophy has helped Matt Ryan become an MVP candidate.

Ryan heads up a very strong passing attack. The Eagles have just seven sacks, second-fewest in the league.

Both teams were idle last week. So there could be some new wrinkles. The Eagles fired defensive coordinator Juan Castillo. That was a long overdue move. I expect Philadelphia's defense to improve, but it's not going to happen right away.

The Eagles are going to put up their share of points against an overrated Atlanta defense that is more about coming up with takeaways than being dominant. LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick are dangerous runners. The Falcons rank 28th in run defense and 22nd in total defense. They've been bailed out by 17 takeaways.

Turnovers have been a big problem for Vick. But moving the ball hasn't. It's not too much to ask these two offenses to go over this middle range number. Each scored more than 30 points in last year's game. Even a drop of 7-to-10 points per team gets this total over.

Jeff Fisher has done a great job with the Rams, but this is where his team gets exposed.

The Rams don't have the offense to keep up with high-powered offenses. This was proven this past Sunday when the Packers beat St. Louis, 30-20. The Rams played hard, but they were out-classed. The score wasn't as close as even 10 points because the Rams scored a meaningless touchdown with 15 seconds left.

The Patriots are healthier on defense than Green Bay, have a more stout run defense and the league's No. 1 offense. The Patriots rank first in points per game at 31 and in total yards averaging 436.1.

The Rams have managed just 11 touchdowns in seven games. New England has 10 touchdowns on the ground and 12 more through the air. The Rams have an active defensive front line, but they don't have the secondary depth to stay with all of Tom Brady's targets.

I like Sam Bradford, but he has no chance to be an elite quarterback with his present surrounding cast. The Rams' battered offensive line is full of castoffs and street free agents. Their wideouts are all backup type quality. Steven Jackson, their most productive offensive player, is averaging less than 54 yards rushing per game and has only one touchdown.

Technically this is a home game for St. Louis. However, the matchup is at Wembley Stadium in London. This is a venue the Patriots are familiar with having buried Tampa Bay there, 35-7, in 2009. The Patriots have a strong fan base in England. Traveling to London is a new experience for the Rams, one of the youngest teams in the NFL.

The last thing people are remembering about San Diego is the Chargers blowing a 24-0 lead to the Broncos on Monday. That was inexcusable. But it doesn't alter the fact that there is a class difference between these two teams that isn't being reflected in the line.

Cleveland is 1-12 in its last 13 games. The Chargers are better than the Browns on both sides of the ball. The Chargers are giving up 70 yards less per game than the Browns, who rank 27th both offensively and defensively in yardage.

Philip Rivers isn't the elite quarterback he was two years ago, but he's still far better than rookie Brandon Weeden. Rivers should be more steady and less turnover-prone with a cleaner pocket as left tackle Jared Gaither is expected back. Rivers is 45-for-65 for 563 yards with a 4-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the two games he's had Gaither protecting his blind side.

The Browns rely heavily on Trent Richardson. However, Richardson is dealing with a painful rib injury and is less than 100 percent. There remains the possibility of the Browns holding Richardson out for the next two weeks when they reach their bye.

Historically, the Chargers don't travel well going to the East Coast for an early start. This, though, is negated by the Chargers having been idle last week. The Chargers are sick of hearing about their Monday night choke job. They've had two weeks to stew and prepare for this matchup.

Cleveland is 4-9-2 ATS at home while the Chargers have covered in seven of their last eight games versus AFC opponents.

I'm not high on BYU like some others. Plus the Cougars are in a tough situational spot traveling for back to back road games after playing a tough physical game against Notre Dame. A week after playing in South Bend, the Cougars have to make another long trip this time to Atlanta.

BYU's defense is overrated. The Cougars have met four opponents who ranked anywhere from 107th to 119th in rushing offense. When they met a good rushing team - Notre Dame - they gave up 270 yards on the ground.

It's hard to beat Georgia Tech unless you can stop their option. The Yellow Jackets rank third in the country in rushing averaging just 340 yards per game. Because of the back to back road games, BYU has less practice time to work on defending against the Yellow Jackets' unique option attack.

Georgia Tech just defeated Boston College, 37-17. Boston College and BYU have very similar offensive statistics with the Eagles averaging five fewer yards per game than the Cougars and 23.6 points per game while the Cougars average 24.1 points a game.

The 'dog has covered 15 of the past 20 times in this rivalry with 11 outright upsets, including covering 12 of the past 14 times.

North Carolina State has beaten North Carolina during the last five meetings covering each time. The Wolfpack shut out the Tar Heels last season, 13-0.

North Carolina's offensive numbers are skewed because it scored 66 points against Idaho and 62 versus Elon. I put more stock into the fact that the Tar Heels have lost to Wake Forest, Louisville and Duke.

North Carolina State, by contrast, has faced a pair of top defenses in Florida State and Maryland during the past two weeks. Those two teams rank second and 11th, respectively, in total defense and the Wolfpack beat them both.

North Carolina State has dominated in the trenches during the past couple of meetings. North Carolina is very good this season in pass protection, but the Wolfpack has one of the best pass rushes in the country leading the ACC and ranking eighth nationally in sacks.

I see the Wolfpack causing enough havoc defensively while their quarterback, Mike Glennon, takes advantage of a North Carolina secondary that ranks 71st in pass defense. Glennon is an excellent quarterback. His numbers have been quiet because he's faced excellent defenses.

I'm not buying into Arkansas being better just because it beat the two worst teams in the SEC - Auburn and Kentucky - during its last two games.

The Razorbacks still can't stop and run, which is pivotal when playing an improved Mississippi team. The Rebels are averaging more than 211 yards on the ground per game.

Arkansas ranks 90th in both total defense and points allowed at 31 per game. The Razorbacks also are without one of their key defensive players, injured linebacker Alonzo Highsmith.

Mississippi is a program on the rise under first year head coach Hugh Freeze. The Rebels already has scored 36 more points than they had all of last season. Their average per play is 6.18 yards, up from 4.38 of a year ago. The Rebels have been getting good play from quarterback Bo Wallace and running back Jeff Scott. The Razorbacks are going to have trouble stopping the Rebels' read option attack, which features these two.

Mississippi is 4-3 with a chance to go to a bowl game for the first time in three years. So this game is critical because still on the Rebels' schedule are road games against LSU and Georgia along with home games against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.

Arkansas has the No. 1 passing attack in the SEC, but they are not balanced averaging fewer than 116 yards rushing. Knile Davis is healthy, but hasn't come close to living up to his pre-injury hype averaging a pedestrian 3.4 yards per carry. The Rebels have a solid secondary ranking in the top 40 in pass defense.

NFC underdogs have been golden this year cashing an unbelievable 83 percent of the time. I see that trend continuing with this matchup.

The Vikings are improved, but they don't have strong enough quarterback play to cover this big of a number against a Tampa Bay squad that also has improved, particularly mentally under new coach Greg Schiano.

The Buccaneers are 2-4, but their four losses have been by a combined 22 points. That's an average loss of 5.5 points. The Buccaneers have yet to lose by more than seven points in any game. Minnesota has the better straight-up record, but Tampa Bay is better against the spread going 4-2.

The Buccaneers have won the last five in this series, including 24-20 last year at Minnesota. The Bucs came back from a 17-0 halftime deficit.

Josh Freeman and Doug Martin, the Buccaneers' two key skill position players, have been performing better lately. Vincent Jackson is averaging 21.7 yards a catch while proving he is indeed one of the best wideouts in football.

The Vikings rely on Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin. The Buccaneers' strength is stopping the run, though, where they rank third allowing just 76 yards per game on the ground.

Christian Ponder, the Vikings' second-year quarterback, has tailed off the last three weeks committing seven turnovers during this span with a 5-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Lacking a ground attack, the Lions have relied on Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson to produce big plays. But that hasn't happened. Stafford has just four touchdown throws, none to Johnson.

Perhaps he's pressing, but Stafford's mechanics have been off. He isn't playing anywhere to the level of his 2011 season. Defenses have been limiting Stafford's big-play ability by playing deep zones. This is the style the Bears favor under Lovie Smith. They may play the Cover-2 better than any team. The Bears went into Week 8 with 17 takeaways.

Detroit has a tough front seven defensively. They can limit the Bears' ground game and apply pressure to Jay Cutler. The Lions' secondary received a big boost with the return of safety Louis Delmas last week. He made a difference in Detroit's upset road win against the Eagles. The Lions can pay more attention to Brandon Marshall since Alshon Jeffery is out.

The Bears' scoring figures have been skewed due to five defensive touchdowns. Chicago's offense still is a work in progress.

There's always the weather factor when playing in Chicago during the fall and winter. The early forecast is for 11-14 mph winds with a chance of thunderstorms.

The Jaguars have had two weeks to stew and be embarrassed about a 41-3 home loss to the Bears.

The Jaguars are making the long trip to the West Coast, but that is negated by being idle last week. As bad as the Jaguars are, they have covered both of their road contests beating Indianapolis and losing to Minnesota in overtime. The close loss to the Vikings is impressive considering how improved Minnesota is.

The Raiders aren't very good either. They have been terrible as a home favorite failing to cover 16 of the last 20 times in that role. Even the Jaguars should be able to pass on the Raiders' depleted secondary, especially with extra time to put in some added wrinkles.

This is no contest. The Patriots have retained their high-powered offense - which is now even better with Aaron Hernandez back - while improving their defense, especially against the run.

The Jets, on the other hand, have regressed. They are missing their best defensive player, Darrelle Revis, and lone playmaker on offense, Santonio Holmes.

Mark Sanchez has failed to complete 50 percent of his throws in four of the last five games. The Patriots are in a foul mood after blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead last week against Seattle. They are going to show no mercy to their hated division rival and their loud mouth coach, Rex Ryan.

This is the Jets' first road game in four weeks. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road matchups. The Jets are run-oriented. They can't play from behind and their defense has regressed. The Patriots beat the Jets twice last season winning by an average of 15 points. New England is just as good this year and the Jets are worse.

I'm not impressed with the Buccaneers. They've been outgained in every game except one.

The Saints finally got their much needed first victory beating San Diego at home. The Saints have now had two weeks to rest and game plan for this matchup. Drew Brees remains in his prime and has too many weapons for the Buccaneers to handle, especially with cornerback Aquib Talib suspended.

New Orleans isn't going to have a top-notch defense, but the Saints players are starting to get more used to the schemes and new system brought in by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The Saints held the Chargers to 113 yards in the second half.

The Buccaneers have a below average quarterback and ground attack. The Saints just need to pay attention to Vincent Jackson. The Saints will be able to handle Tampa Bay's offense while generating plenty of points themselves taking advantage of Tampa Bay's 31st-ranked pass defense.

The Packers finally are getting it together. Aaron Rodgers is heating up.

The Rams are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this season, but they've been playing way above their heads. This isn't going to continue.

Kudos to Jeff Fisher, but the reality is the Rams may have the worst offensive line in the NFL and not one of their wide receivers is starting quality with Danny Amendola out. They aren't going to be able to keep up with Green Bay's high-powered offense, which is even better on carpet.

The Packers are 20-8-1 ATS on the road versus foes with a winning home record.

Minnesota is improved, but the Vikings are not a full touchdown better than Arizona.

The line is climbing because backup John Skelton is the Cardinals' starting quarterback replacing injured Kevin Kolb.

Two things about this. First, the Cardinals win with their excellent defense. Second, Skelton is the Cardinals' most effective quarterback. He beat out Kolb during preseason, but got hurt allowing Kolb to take over the starting spot.

Skelton has better chemistry and statistics with Larry Fitzgerald, who is the Cardinals' key playmaker. It's easy to rip Skelton, but the Cardinals were 5-2 last year during his starts. Two of those victories were against the Eagles and 49ers, teams better than the Vikings.

The Cardinals are not considered a good road team, yet they are 4-3 ATS in their last seven away matchups. Earlier this season they upset the Patriots on the road holding New England to its lowest point total of the season in a 20-18 victory. Last year, the Cardinals beat the Eagles on the road and shoud have beaten the Ravens in Baltimore losing 30-27 after leading 24-6.

The Cardinals have covered eight of the last 10 times they've been a 'dog while the Vikings are 2-7 ATS when favored.

Look for Middle Tennessee State of the Sun Belt Conference to take advantage of a classic sandwich spot and throw a scare into unbeaten Mississippi State.

Mississippi State is off a quality home win against Tennessee and then next week plays at Alabama in its biggest game of the year. The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-league games.

Mississippi State already has played two Sun Belt teams and didn't come close to covering either game beating Troy, 30-24, and South Alabama, 30-10.

Middle Tennessee State can prove dangerous. The Blue Raiders have won four of their last five games, including beating Georgia Tech on the road by 21 points.

Louisiana-Monroe has a good offense and its quarterback, Kolton Browning, is better than anyone Western Kentucky has. Browning has a 14-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has helped the Warhawks rank 19th in total yardage at 485.7 per game and 22nd in scoring at 38.3 points per game.

I see Monroe controlling the game here. The last three meetings have been close with none decided by more than five points. So getting more than a field goal is huge.

Western Kentucky has been on a great pointspread run, but they are overvalued while Monroe has covered its past five road matchups,

The situation sets up for Nebraska to get revenge on Northwestern after the Wildcats edged the Cornhuskers, 28-25, in Lincoln last season.

The Cornhuskers are off a lopsided loss to Ohio State and have had two weeks to point to this matchup after a bye last week.

The Wildcats are bowl eligible, so their is a less motivation angle. The Wildcats have a history of wearing down in the second half of the season. They are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 October matchups.

The game is at Northwestern, but Nebraska travels well. It wouldn't be surprising if half the fans were from Nebraska.

Northwestern is having a good season, but haven't played great competition. The Wildcats' lined foes are a combined 10-21 ATS.

Nebraska has the better athletes, talent and size. The Cornhuskers average 507.3 yards per game and 43.7 points. They have the fifth best rushing offense and expect top runner Rex Burkhead to play.

Northwestern, by contrast, averages 12 less points per game and ranks 104th in pass defense. Taylor Martinez always was a good runner. Now he's becoming a passing threat completing 66 percent of his throws while passing for 12 touchdowns.

Oklahoma State's No. 1 ranked offense and strong revenge motive have pushed this line past the two-touchdown mark. But are the Cowboys really two touchdowns better than Iowa State?

I don't believe so. The spunky Cyclones have the better defense and have covered their last five road games. They are 6-3 ATS as a road 'dog since last season, including beating Iowa and TCU straight-up as road 'dogs this year.

Before getting hung up on revenge - Iowa State derailed Oklahoma State's title hopes with a 37-31 double overtime win last year - let's just see how good the Cowboys are.

Oklahoma State just slipped past Kansas, 20-14, last week as 26 1/2-point road favorites. The Cowboys have failed to cover the last four times they've won straight-up.

The Cowboys have fancy offensive numbers such as a nation-best 601.4 yards per game and scoring 48.6 points per game. But really how good of a team are they if they can barely defeat the Jayhawks? There was some weather-related issues that worked against Oklahoma State's high-octane offense, but it's not just that game.

Oklahoma State lost 59-38 to Arizona. The Wildcats are 0-3 in the Pac-12 with a 49-0 loss to Oregon and a home loss to Oregon State. The Cowboys lost 41-36 at home to Texas, which just was slaughtered by Oklahoma, 63-21. So that loss looks worse now. These are signs that Oklahoma State is overrated.

The Cowboys have put up their fancy numbers versus soft defenses. Iowa State is the most physical defense they will face. The Cyclones rank 34th in total defense despite facing three of the top 50 teams in total offense.

I'm not totally convinced Oklahoma State is even better than Iowa State. Now, because of the revenge angle and fancy offensive numbers, the oddsmaker has made the blatant assumption that the Cowboys are two touchdowns better than a solid, below-the-radar Iowa State squad with a history of road point spread success. On top of this, early market activity has pushed the number past 14.

I do put some stock in college revenge. But I also strongly consider value, too. The price of revenge has gotten way too high in this matchup.

The 49ers have been golden off a loss during the Jim Harbaugh era winning and covering all five times. The 49ers have won most convincingly, too, beating their opponents by a combined 90 points while covering the spread by an average of 15.2 points. The 49ers also are 10-2-1 ATS at home under Harbaugh.

Seattle is 4-11 SU in is last 15 road games, 5-9-1 ATS.

Seattle's doesn't have the offense nor the quarterback to put up many points in this game no matter how strong its defense is. The Seahawks are traveling on a short week after posting a big upset home win against New England. So it's also a bad situational spot for the Seahawks.

The 49ers are furious after being embarrassed at home by the Giants. Russell Wilson is far from Eli Manning. He's going to have problems against San Francisco's elite defense.

The 49ers have owned the Seahawks at home winning the past three games by a combined 48 points. Look for a bounce back game from Alex Smith, who before last week had a 30-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

All the early money has been on Denver. But I see the Chargers winning this game. It's a huge home game for San Diego.

San Diego has beaten Denver five of the last six times at home. The Chargers rank third in run defense giving up just 74 yards on the ground.

That statistic would hold more meaning if Denver didn't have Peyton Manning. San Diego has defensed Manning well through the years, though. The Chargers are 5-1 against Manning. Defensive coordinator John Pagano has been one of the architects to this success. The key is applying pressure from the inside on Manning making him uncomfortable in the pocket. San Diego has executed this maneuver well against Manning.

The Chargers have the better balanced offense with Philip Rivers and Ryan Mathews, who has rushed for 382 yards in three games against Denver averaging 5.3 yards per carry. He's rushed for at least 120 yards in each of those games.

October hasn't been a good month for Denver. The Broncos have failed to cover in eight of their last nine October games while the Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven AFC matchups.

This is a good time to be playing the Packers and a bad time to be taking on the unbeaten Texans. This is an especially bad matchup for Green Bay.

The Packers are still out of sync offensively. Aaron Rodgers isn't having the MVP season he had last season. Greg Jennings remains out. The running game, not good to being with, is at its lowest point with Cedric Benson out. The offensive line is soft and is going to have problems with J.J. Watt, who is putting up MVP numbers with 8 1/2 sacks, 12 quarterback hits, 11 tackles for losses and eight knocked down passes. Rodgers has already been sacked 21 times. It's scary to think how many more times he would have gone down behind the line of scrimmage if he wasn't highly mobile.

The Packers had problems with Seattle's defense three weeks ago scoring just 12 points. Houston's defense is much bigger and stronger. Green Bay's offensive line has yet to prove it can handle pressure from a very good defense on the road. Rodgers' ability to freeze the defense with play-action is severely restricted without any threat of a ground attack.

Green Bay's defense is improved, but not nearly enough to the point of making crucial stops. The Texans can control possession with their balanced attack. If nose guard B.J. Raji can't play the Packers are in even more trouble defensively trying to stop Arian Foster.

The Texans have won their last nine games with Matt Schuaub under center, winning by nearly 20 points a game. The Texans have covered 11 of their last 14 games. Houston is 4-1 ATS this season covering by an average of nine points in those four covers.

The Texans should be pumped playing a rare nationally televised game at home with this being the Sunday Night Game.

The line has been pushed up a bit with Brady Quinn getting the start. Quinn has never been very good in the NFL. He's been nothing but a conservative, checkdown type of quarterback. But in a matchup where points are going to be hard to come by, Quinn is exactly the type of quarterback the Chiefs need.

Kansas City has outgained its opponents by 415 yards. They've won the time of possession in all but one of their games. This is impressive considering the Chiefs have played a number of strong offenses and quarterbacks in going up against Atlanta, New Orleans, Baltimore and San Diego.

So why are the Chiefs a miserable 1-4? They are a staggering minus 15 in turnover ratio. Matt Cassel was a big reason for that with 13 turnovers, including a terrible goal line fumble last week that probably cost the Chiefs a straight-up win against Baltimore.

Tampa Bay is 1-3. They are more disciplined and better coached than last season under first-year taskmaster Greg Schiano. But the Buccaneers don't have the Chiefs' talent having lost their best offensive lineman, Darvin Joseph, and one of their best defensive players, end Adrian Clayborn, for the season. The Buccaneers have been outgained in every one of their games. If it weren't for a plus 3 turnover edge they likely wouldn't have covered a game all season.

The Bucs are going to be as conservative as the Chiefs with their erratic quarterback Josh Freeman. There is going to be a lot of running and the Chiefs hold a huge edge with Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs rank No. 2 in rushing averaging 180.8 yards per game on the ground. Charles is first in the league in rushing and total yards from scrimmage. He is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and looks to be 100 percent from last year's season-ending knee injury.

Tampa Bay ranks 27th in yards given up and is 30th in total offense. They don't have the skill position talent Kansas City does.

The Chiefs are better defensively than they've shown. Their offense has put their defense in tough holes due to frequent turnovers. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are one of the better duo pass rushers in the NFL. The underrated Houston has 13 1/2 sacks going back to Game 13 of last year. No player has more sacks during this time frame.

The line has gotten low enough where I confidently can back the Eagles. Michael Vick has been plagued by 11 turnovers. But Vick is in line for a monster game against a porous Lions secondary that is giving up 66 percent completions and does not have an interception.

Free safety Louis Delmas, Detroit's best defensive back, is set to make his season debut after being out following knee surgery. He's far from 100 percent, though.

The Lions have looked like an NFC version of the Raiders - undisciplined, sloppy and arrogant without the results to back anything up. Oh, yes, the Lions' special team coverage units are the worst in football.

The Lions are overrated because of Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Defenses have taken advantage of Detroit's lack of a running attack, by playing deep zones thus limiting Stafford's big-play ability. The Eagles are solid against the run and have a top 10 pass defense.

There are numerous disturbing trends surrounding the Lions such as 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven road games, 0-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record and 1-11 ATS against NFC competition.

The Eagles are clearly at least a level higher than the Lions, who are just 6-10 in their last 16 games. The spread has been reduced enough for us to get involved.

These two teams met in Week 2 and there were 61 points scored with the Bengals winning, 34-27.

So why should there be far fewer points scored this time around?

The first factor is the return of suspended Browns cornerback Joe Haden. He ranks with left tackle Joe Thomas as the best player on Cleveland. Haden is close to the class of Darrelle Revis as a shutdown corner. He's one of the few corners in the league who can match up to A.J. Green.

The Bengals have a terrible ground game made worse by losing their most talented running back, Bernard Scott, for the season. Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis is a plodder who has fumbled three times the last 40 times he's handled the ball.

Cleveland's bend-but-don't-break defense can frustrate the Bengals. The under has cashed in Cleveland's last seven home games.

The Bengals have had a top-10 defense the past couple of years. It has showed slippage this year. However, in the last two weeks the Bengals have faced second-year pro Blaine Gabbert and rookie Ryan Tannehill. They held Jacksonville and Miami to a combined 27 points. Now they draw rookie Brandon Weeden, who is in that lowest tier QB group with Gabbert and Tannehill.

The Browns have failed to score more than 16 points in three of their five games.

It's obvious by now that it's going to take time for Mike Leach to turn things around at Washington State - if it can even be done. The Cougars' only two wins have been by four points against Eastern Washington and by eight in a struggle against UNLV. The Cougars didn't cover either game.

The Cougars have lost 10 of their last 11 Pac-12 games, including one to lowly Colorado this season. They rank 104th in total defense. As for Leach's vaunted offensive mind, twice the Cougars have been held without a touchdown.

Cal has only two wins, too. But the Golden Bears have played the second-hardest schedule in the country, according to the Sagarin ratings. The key here is that Cal has got its mojo back after a huge 43-17 win over UCLA last week. Zach Maynard is a streaky quarterback and he was on against Cal. I see him continuing hot here.

The Golden Bears have defeated Washington State seven straight times so there also is a psychological barrier for the Cougars to overcome.

A victory against Minnesota does not make Iowa good. The Hawkeyes are going to have problems stepping up in class especially playing in their first true road game of the season.

Iowa has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 road contests. The Hawkeyes also are 0-5 ATS following a cover. Iowa quarterback James Vandenberg has had a disappointing season and has a history of not playing well on the road. Iowa has lost six of eight road games with Vandenberg under center.

I don't like Iowa's overachieving running backs either against this caliber of defense. The Spartans are holding foes to 86 yards on the ground. They've allowed just two rushing scores.

The Hawkeyes didn't enjoy a peaceful bye week either as three of their players were arrested, including cornerback Micah Hyde. Michigan State is due to play better. The Hawkeyes need to play their "A" game to make things close and they don't have the road pedigree to give reason for that.

After an 0-3 non-conference start, Houston is coming on. The Cougars have won their last two games covering by an average of 22 points. They are averaging 615 yards in their last two games, victories against Rice and North Texas State.

I see the Cougars steamrolling UAB, another weak opponent, by a similar margin. The teams met last year in Birmingham, Ala., and Houston buried the Blazers, 56-13. Quarterback Case Keenum no longer is around, but 14 other Houston starters from that game are.

Houston has a history of winning by a margin against bad opponents covering 14 of the last 17 times when meeting a below .500 team. The Cougars also have covered in eight of their last nine Conference USA games and are 6-0 ATS in October.

The Cougars are playing well now that it's conference time. This is a time to jump on their bandwagon.

A rare nationally televised (ESPN) Thursday night game makes this Colorado's biggest matchup of the season. No, I'm not saying the Buffaloes can upset the Sun Devils. But I do see Colorado going all out while Arizona State takes it easy with its biggest game of the year on tap next Thursday at home against Oregon.

The Sun Devils certainly don't want, or need, to show much in this game. They will be content to win without pouring it on. Todd Graham has the Sun Devils off to a 4-1 start, but I'm not as impressed as others about Graham and Arizona State.

The Sun Devils lost to Missouri. Their victories have been against Northern Arizona, a non-board team, a horrendous Illinois team from the weak Big Ten, a mediocre Utah squad and a victory against Cal, which is having its worst season under Jeff Tedford.

Colorado is going to be highly motivated. Not only is this a revenge game, but being on nationally television means the Buffaloes will be putting forth a strong effort to help in their recruiting and fund raising. This is huge for a program that has been down in the dumps for too long. The Colorado coaching staff knows a strong effort and close score would go a long ways to helping their rebuilding efforts.

The weather in Boulder can be tricky this time of year. Arizona State is not used to playing in high altitude or in cold weather. Temperatures are expected to be in the 40s.

Much of the focus on Tennessee's disappointing season has come on its offense where Chris Johnson continues to be in a funk averaging an embarrassing 2.9 yards per carry and Matt Hasselbeck looks washed up.

What's not being discussed as much is how bad and soft the Titans' defense has become since Jeff Fisher left. The Titans are giving up the most points in the NFL, an average of 36.2 points per game. They rank 29th in yards allowed. The Titans don't generate much of a pass rush, their best linebacker is playing at less than 100 percent and they could have the worst starting safeties in the league.

The Steelers have the weapons to take full advantage especially with a now healthy Rashard Mendenhall. He gives the Steelers a legitimate back and sets up Ben Roethlisberger's play-action passes. Mike Wallace, one of the NFL's most feared deep threats, is in line for a big game.

I expect the Titans to put up their share of points, too. This is a quick turnaround for Pittsburgh's aging defense, which has seven starters in their 30s and greatly misses defensive end Aaron Smith and linebacker James Farrior. The Steelers' defense has looked slow this season. They haven't generated much of a pass rush and have shown leaks against the run. Not helping matters for the Steelers is that LaMarr Woodley, perhaps their most dangerous pass rusher, and star safety Troy Polamalu are both out.

The Titans should get a boost with Kenny Britt, their most talented wideout by far, expected to see his most extensive action.

Through the first month of the season, the Texans have been the best team in football. The Texans are 4-0 for the first time in their 11-year history. They have been a pointspread covering machine going 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games.

They are anxious to show the country on national television, especially in the media center of the nation, just how good they are.

The Jets were a very flawed team before losing Darrelle Revis, their best defensive player, and Santonio Holmes, their lone playmaker on offense. Now they are a team in deep trouble devoid of their weapons and swagger.

The Texans aren't the kind of team that beats themselves. They have a balanced offense with the top running back in the league in Arian Foster. Matt Schaub is an accurate game-manager with receiving weapons Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels.

Wade Phillips, with the addition of J.J. Watt, has built Houston into a dominant defense. The Jets are going to have problems scoring and their defense is far from elite minus Revis.

Look for the Texans to grind out a double-digit victory.

The Saints aren't going to make the playoffs. Not starting 0-4 and in a tough division. But they will be up for this nationally televised home game against an overrated foe.

Thanks to Drew Brees, the Saints still have an elite offense. Brees is at his absolute finest when playing at home. In his last nine games at the Louisiana Superdome, Brees is 236-of-351 (67 percent) for 3,029 yards and 32 touchdowns with just seven interceptions.

Yes, Brees does miss the coaching acumen of Sean Payton. But Brees still is on pace to throw for 5,400 yards and 40 touchdowns. The Saints are going to put up plenty of points on the Chargers. The key question is can the Saints' defense stop anyone?

The Saints lack talent on defense. They are not good tacklers, nor pass rushers. But they will get after Philip Rivers, spurred on by their home crowd in this matchup. This wil be the Saints' Super Bowl game.

Left tackle Jared Gaither is back to protect Philip Rivers' blind side. Gaither is a hupe upgrade for San Diego. But he is rusty after missing training camp, preseason and the first three games of the season with back problems.

The Chargers do not have a strong early-season history. Norv Turner has had much better teams at San Diego than this one. Still, his record with the Chargers during September and October is just 20-20.

San Diego is 3-1, but the lone time it stepped up in class it was buried. That came at home against the Falcons, who won 27-3. Victories against bad foes - Raiders, Titans and Chiefs - don't impress me. The Chargers were out-gained by the Chiefs, but won easily because of six Kansas City turnovers.

The improved Vikings have been one of the feel-good stories during the first month of the season.

But now it's time to step in against Minnesota. The Titans won nine game last season. They are better off with veteran Matt Hasselbeck behind center in this matchup.

Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder has been drawing some nice publicity, but he's still a dink-and-dunker helped tremendously by Adrian Peterson and multi-talented Percy Harvin. The Titans' run defense is going to pick up with the return to health of middle linebacker Colin McCarthy.

The Titans outgained the Texas by 28 yards last week. They held Arian Foster in check. They can do the same with Peterson. Tennessee has been hurt by a minus 6 ratio. Expect fewer turnovers with the more experienced Hasselbeck in charge.

Chris Johnson showed signs of breaking out of his season-long funk as he rushed for 141 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, against an outstanding Houston defense.

The Titans aren't as bad as their record. The Vikings have been overachieving. Expect a correction to come in this game.

I'm going to ride the Jim Harbaugh pointspread marching and lay this number before it reach double-digits. The 49ers are a fantastic 17-5-1 (77 percent) ATS in their last 22 games.

The Billls are a soft team playing the most physical opponent. Not only is this a grass game, but the Bills also are making a long trip reducing their practice time. Buffalo's confidence is down, too, after being steamrolled once again by the Patriots.

The 49ers return home after two weeks on the road. The 49ers' defense is top-rate. Their ground attack is much better than New England's and the Patriots gashed the Bills for 277 yards on the ground, averaging 6.1 yards per run. The Bills also struggle with tight ends and Vernon Davis is one of the best. He's averaged a touchdown per game in his last nine games.

Making matters worse for the Bills is they are not healthy offensively. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are coming off injuries. The Bills are likely to be without two starting offensive linemen, too, as left tackle Cordy Glenn and right guard Kraig Urbik were injured against the Patriots.

The NFL is all about when you play a team - and the timing is right for Kansas City in this matchup.

This is a flat spot for Baltimore. The Ravens are three straight prime time games. They scored a huge home revenge win against New England two weeks ago followed by a short turnaround last Thursday with a hard-played home victory against division rival Cleveland. That was their fourth game in 18 days. Up next after this game for Baltimore is a home game against Dallas. The Ravens have failed to cover the last four times they've faced an opponent with a losing record. They also are 1-3 ATS in their last four road non-division games.

The Ravens' defense isn't nearly as intimidating on the road and it's down this season minus their best pass rusher, Terrell Suggs. The Ravens can be run on to to the outside. Jamaal Charles is healthy again. A healthy Charles could be the most dangerous runner in the league. He's rushed for 325 yards in his last two games as he gets nearer to being 100 percent from last year's season-ending knee injury.

The Chiefs have outgained their opponents by 375 yards, an average of 87.5 yards per game. But are just 1-3 due to an NFL-worst 15 turnovers. Matt Cassel is in danger of losing his starting job. Cassel is never going to be an elite quarterback, but he can be a competent game-manager. He has the league's No. 1 ground attack behind him and a solid No. 1 receiving target in Dwayne Bowe.

Baltimore wins with its offense these days not its defense. The Chiefs have the pass rushers with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston to disrupt Joe Flacco's timing, especially playing in noisy Arrowhead Stadium.

It doesn't matter that the Colts are coming off a bye and the Packers probably aren't going to have Greg Jennings.

The Colts are a young team in total transition. Making things harder for the Colts is they have injuries on their offensive line and in their secondary. They also are down their well-liked first year head coach, Chuck Pagano, who is undergoing treatment for leukemia.

The Packers got their offense back in gear. Aaron Rodgers is going to put up plenty of points playing indoors against such a vulnerable defense.

Andrew Luck is going to be an elite quarterback. But right now he's a rookie and he's going to encounter problems with an improved Packer defense and their savvy defensive coordinator Dom Capers, who will be mixing up different looks and blitzes. The Colts are going to have problems containing Clay Matthews.

Green Bay hasn't been sharp on both sides of the ball. But now the Packers are stepping way down in class after playing the 49ers, Bears, Seahawks in Seattle and high-powered Saints.

This is the time to lay the wood with Green Bay.

The Wolverines are off a much needed bye following their 13-6 loss to Notre Dame. Michigan is just 2-2, but its losses have been to the Irish and Alabama. Those high-profile defeats have caused the Wolverines to fall out of favor with the oddsmaker and public.

But it's a mistake to downgrade Michigan enough to where the Wolverines are just a small favorite in this matchup. Purdue is nothing special.

The Boilermakers also lost to Notre Dame, but only had two turnovers while Michigan coughed up the ball six times versus the Irish. Purdue is coming off a 51-41 victory against Marshall. The Thundering Herd outgained the Boilermakers by nearly 100 yards. Purdue's defense was on the field for 93 plays.

I'm expecting a strong bounce back game from Denard Robinson. Michigan has talent edges on both sides of the ball. The Wolverines also have the better coach in Brady Hoke. Hoke is 22-12 ATS when playing off a loss. Purdue is 2-6-1 ATS following a victory when playing at home.

The Wildcats are averaging 33.8 points a game and have won and covered all five of their matchups. I like the Wildcats' skill position players far more than Penn State's plodders.

Northwestern is well coached under Pat Fitzgerald and has versatile, multi-talented skill position players. The Wildcats also have a much better kicker, which could factor in this price range. Penn State has not played a difficult schedule. The Nittany Lions are to the point now where they're actually overrated.

Even when Joe Paterno was roaming the sidelines, the Nittany Lions were just 6-14 ATS as home chalk. They have failed to cover nine of the last 10 times they met an undefeated foe. Penn State is just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home contests.

Northwestern has covered nine of its last 13 road games when taking on an opponent with a winning home mark.

I'll take the points in a matchup of two strong defensive teams. Rutgers ranks 112th in terms of strength of schedule. The Scarlett Knights' victory against Arkansas doesn't seem so impressive now as the Razorbacks are 1-4 and just lost to Texas A&M by 48 points.

Rutgers has beaten opponents who are a combined 1-11 SU versus lined opponents. The Scarlett Knights also took a defensive hit losing 6-foot-3, 275-pound nose guard Ike Holmes. He was a key to the Knights' tough run defense.

Connecticut ranks sixth in total defense. The Huskies are holding foes to only 242 yards per game and 15.6 points. Their rush defense ranks in the top seven.

The Huskies defeated Rutgers by 18 points last season. They have covered in four of their last five trips to Rutgers and are 7-2-1 ATS in the series. Note, too, that the 'dog has covered the past four times in the series.

The emphasis of this matchup seems to be defense and the offensive line problems each team has been having.

Neither team's offense has looked sharp during the past two weeks.

However, the NFL is all about adjustments. Both teams have playmakers. Adjustments will be made to put these playmakers into favorable positions.

I find Chicago's defense to be overrated. It has a lot of age, Brian Urlacher isn't the force he once was and the secondary isn't elite. The Cowboys are a dangerous team to defend with a healthy DeMarco Murray. Jason Witten already has had his season fill of dropped passes. Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are in the discussion for best wide receiver tandem.

Last year, Dallas had three games where the total was between 40 1/2 and 41 1/2. All three went over. This is the Cowboys' lowest over/under of this season. It won't take much for this to go over.

The Bears are learning a new offense. This already, though, is their fourth game. Jay Cutler hasn't had a receiver anywhere near as good as Brandon Marshall since he's been with the Bears. There's a good chance Matt Forte plays, which would be an added plus. The Bears also hold a dangerous special teams weapon in Devin Hester.

Weather won't be a factor. Both offenses will be helped playing on a fast track. So should the kickers. There shouldn't be any missed field goals.

Considering the lack of offense on both sides, taking this many points is huge.

The Cardinals' defense is playing well, but their offense has put up more than 23 points only once during the past 12 games. Aside from Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals have no playmakers on offense and Kevin Kolb never has taken full advantage of Fitzgerald's considerable skills.

Miami ranks No. 3 in run defense giving up less than 2.5 yards per run. The Cardinals are 26th in rushing and their backfield depth took a hit with the loss of Beanie Wells. Arizona ranks 29th in passing yards and 31st in total offense. It's easy to knock rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, but Miami averages more than 100 yards per game than Arizona does. It's a big plus that Reggie Bush appears ready to play. He's the Dolphins' best weapon and is off to his finest start.

The Cardinals have the best record in the NFL during the last 12 regular-season games going 10-2. But Miami has covered five of its last six road games and is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing a foe with a winning record.

The Cardinals are on a nice roll, but the oddsmaker has caught up to them. This has all the makings of a play-for-field-position type of game that is decided by a field goal at the end.

Now that this total has been bet up by a field goal and past a key totals number, it's time to get involved and fade the move.

Cincinnati's defense isn't as bad as it has looked while its offense isn't as explosive as it appears. The Bengals have put up 34 and 38 points, respectively, the last two weeks. Those outbursts were against two of the worst passes defenses, Washington and the Joe Haden-less Browns.

Look for the Bengals to have a tougher time through the air against the Jaguars, who have surrendered just two touchdown passes. The Jaguars' strength is their pass defense. They play a tough Cover-2 and give up few plays. Andy Dalton is a young quarterback, who could get frustrated facing this style.

The Jaguars have one of the worst passing attacks with Blaine Gabbert. If you discount a fluke 80-yard catch-and-run touchdown by Cecil Shorts to beat the Colts last week, Gabbert has completed 16 of 39 passes for 128 yards during the past two games. The Bengals' pass rush has picked up with the return to health of Carlos Dunlap.

This is going to turn into a running game between Maurice Jones-Drew, who is going to be keyed on, and plodding Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis. Green-Ellis is popular in some fantasy leagues because he scores touchdowns, but he is the least elusive back in the league. He's gone 328 straight carries without breaking off a run longer than 20 yards.

The weather could negatively impact the game, too. There is a 35 percent chance of thunderstorms with a 10 mph wind.

Caught in a flat spot, the 49ers were upset by the Vikings on the road this past Sunday. The 49ers are spending the week in Youngstown, Ohio practicing and stewing about that defeat.

Under Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers have always won and covered following a loss. They were 3-0 SU and ATS in that situation last season.

The 49ers have been a covering maching under Harbaugh going 14-6-1 (70 percent). The 49ers possess the most physical defense in the league. The Jets are weak at the skill positions. They are below average at quarterback, they lack a running back with speed and their wideouts are nothing special. The Jets are primarily a running team, but the 49ers have allowed only one rushing touchdown in their last six games.

The 49ers possess not only the better defense, but a much more balanced and effective offense. Alex Smith doesn't turn the ball over, Frank Gore is still fresh and the 49ers have a deeper set of wideouts and a star tight end, Vernon Davis. They can take advantage of a Jets squad that is now missing its best player, cornerback Darrelle Revis. There's a huge drop from Revis to backup Kyle Wilson.

Houston is unbeaten and getting lots of love from the media and betting markets. But this line has become over inflated.

Let's keep in mind, the Texans have played Miami, Jacksonville and Denver. Each of those teams has a losing record. Jake Locker is the second-best quarterback the Texans have seen.

The Titans received a huge needed boost of confidence with their overtime victory last week against Detroit. This is a division game that means a lot more to the Titans in their battle to reach the playoffs. The Texans play next Monday night on national television against the Jets and then have huge home marquee matchups against Green Bay and Baltimore.


The Titans were an above .500 team last season. Their defense and running back Chris Johnson are better than they've shown so far. They are due for much better performances. The Texans are due for a fall. I see a close game here.

The Patriots haven't dropped three in a row since 2002 and that streak isn't going to end against Buffalo.

The Patriots have a losing record, but they very well could be unbeaten having been victimized in two games by replacement referees.

New England's improved defense can handle Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns during his last 13 games, and the Bills' backup running backs as it's doubtful if Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller will be able to play.

The Bills aren't going to be able to keep up with the Patriots' high-powered attack that has overcome the loss of Aaron Hernandez by the improved running of Stevan Ridley, resurrecting Wes Welker and getting Brandon Lloyd comfortable in the offense. Then there's Rob Gronkowski, who has scored 24 touchdowns in the last 25 games.

The Patriots have owned the Bills beating the 16 of the last 17 times covering 12 of the 17 matchups.

Clemson is playing on the road for a second straight week. The Tigers just lost a nationally televised shootout against Florida State. They have a big revenge matchup next week when they host Georgia Tech, the team that dealt them their first loss last week. Tigers are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.



This is a far more crucial game for Boston College and its coach Frank Spaziani, who is under fire. The Eagles go on the road for three straight games after this one. The Eagles have moved the ball in going 1-2, but have been stung by turnovers. That has been the major factor in losses to Miami and to Northwestern in their last game.



Boston College quarterback Chase Rettig has been decent. He was 24-for-44 for 291 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions in the Eagles' 22-13 road loss to Northwestern. He was hurt, though, by his receivers dropping several passes. The Eagles have had two weeks to prepare for this game following that loss. They should prove ready. They have covered the past five times following a loss.

Akron still hasn't been getting enough respect from the oddsmaker. Terry Bowden is doing a great job of turning things around for the Zips. Akron has covered in each of its last three games. The Zips have covered the number in these three games by a combined 80 points!



Miami of Ohio, on the other hand, has yet to cover a spread. The Redhawks are 6-18 ATS in September.



A big key in Akron's improved play is senior quarterback Dalton Williams, who ranks ninth nationally averaging 340.8 yards per game. The Zips average 36 points a game, which is 32nd-best in the nation. The Zips have allowed only six sacks in their four games so they do a great job of protecting Williams. Akron trailed Tennessee by only three points in the fourth quarter on the road last week.



Miami of Ohio gives up 32 points a game. The Redhawks rank 113th in yards allowed surrendering 489.2 per game. Miami of Ohio is 2-2 with its two wins coming against Southern Illinois and Massachusetts. Both of those wins were at home.



In their two road games, the Redhawks were blown out by 46 points against Ohio State and lost to Boise State, 39-12. Neither Ohio State nor Boise State has looked overly impressive this season. Boise State hasn't scored an offensive touchdown in either of its two other games and Ohio State has failed to cover its last three games.

At first glance this line seems too high. But if you look deeper at the level of competition these two teams have played and how Minnesota has won you begin to realize that Iowa, with double revenge and playing at home, is the way to go.

Minnesota is improved. I like the job Jerry Kill is doing with the Gophers. He's a big upgrade on Tim Brewster. But the Gophers aren't as good as their 4-0 record shows. They were lucky to beat UNLV in overtime, then scored victories against New Hampshire and Western Michigan before getting past Syracuse, 17-10, last week. The Gophers were lucky to get past Syracuse as the Orangemen turned the ball over four times and had some questionable play-calling.

This is Minnesota's first road game since Week 1. The combined record of Minnesota's beaten opponents is 6-10. Their opponents are not impressive.

Iowa is just 2-2, but its foes have a combined record of 9-5. The Hawkeyes' offense has gotten better since Mike Weisman became the main ball-carrier. He's rushed for 330 yards and scored six touchdowns during the past two games. Iowa quarterback James Vandenberg has regressed this season, but I expect him to pick up his play. I like his arm better than either of Minnesota's quarterbacks.

Iowa hasn't lost to Minnesota at Kinnick Stadium since 1999 winning the past five times at home. The Hawkeyes also have covered six of the past eight times they've hosted the Gophers.

You better be able to stop the run if you're going to hang in against Stanford. Washington can't do that. The Huskies haven't been able to play with the big boys and they rank 86th in run defense yielding nearly 175 yards per game on the ground.

Stepfan Taylor can definitely take advantage of that. He's averaging 102.3 yards per game while averaging five yards per carry. Combine Stanford's advantage on the ground with its defensive superiority and you have a Cardinal team winning by more than a touchdown.

Stanford's defensive front seven ranks among the nation's best. The Cardinal probably has the best linebacker depth in the country. Stanford ranks No. 1 in run defense. They held USC to just 26 yards rushing in their last game and that included a meaningless 30-yard run by Curtis McNeal on the last play of the first half.

The Cardinal has had ample time to come down to Earth after their impressive victory against USC since they had a bye last week. Stanford is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 away matchups. Stanford also has covered 13 of its last 16 September games. Yes, Andrew Luck is gone. But the defense, rushing attack, tight ends and coaching still is top-notch.

The Huskies have a good quarterback in Keith Price. But he's in a tough spot without a balanced offense and playing behind a battered offensive line. The Huskies are down three projected offensive line starters. The right side of their offensive line may consist of freshmen. Stanford quarterback Josh Nunes isn't nearly as talented as Price, but he's heady and steady. Unlike Price, he doesn't have to force anything.

The house absolutely will be rocking in Seattle, which already is the loudest outdoor venue in pro football. Seattle is more physical than Green Bay, but the Seahawks' offense won't be able to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' high octane offense. The crowd isn't going to bother the composed Rodgers either.

Seattle has to pay lip service to Green Bay's ground now that Cedric Benson is in the backfield and its secondary doesn't have enough talented bodies to prevent Rodgers from having a big game. It's a plus if Greg Jennings plays for Green Bay. I would be surprised if he doesn't play.

Rookie Russell Wilson is a nice story, but the fact is Seattle ranks last in passing and is 29th in total offense. The Packers have improved their pass rush during the last two weeks. Marshawn Lynch is the key to the Seahawks' attack. The Packers are decent against the run and will be keying on Lynch. The Packers run a similar zone running scheme as Seattle so they will be well-coached and well-positioned to defend Lynch.

The Packers have a history of starting fast under Mike McCarthy covering in 14 of their last 20 September games. They are the superior team and will cover this short number.

Guess which team has the best NFC record during the last 11 games? Go to the head class if you answered the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals are 9-2 during their past 11 games. They don't get any respect because of their quarterback difficulties, but their defense is highly underrated. The Cardinals haven't allowed more than 23 points in any game during the past 11 matchups. During this span, the Cardinals have an NFL-best 33 sacks. Darryl Washington is a stud linebacker.

The Cardinals have captured their last six home games. They catch the Eagles off a victory against Baltimore and hosting the Giants next week. The Eagles are 2-0 with two one-point wins, including a sloppy victory against lowly Cleveland. The Eagels have already turned the ball over nine times and committed 19 penalties. They are not in sync yet despite their 2-0 record.

The Eagles also suffered three key injuries last week losing their center, offensive left tackle and most consistent wide receiver, Jeremy Maclin. Losing center Jason Kelce for the year really hurts Philadelphia as its backup is inexperienced.

The Cardinals beat the Eagles at Philadelphia last season, 21-17. They are more than capable of beating them at home this season especially considering the Eagles are in a flat spot and have yet to look impressive.

The Cardinals have one of the most underrated defenses in football. They haven't allowed more than 23 points during their last 11 games. They've held their two opponents this season - Seattle and New England - to an average of 17 points per game.

Now the Cardinals host Philadelphia. The Cardinals are giving up an average of 16.3 points during their last six home games.

The Eagles have yet to get in sync offensively. Michael Vick played only 12 plays during preseason and has been picked off six times already.

Making it worse for Vick and the Eagles is they will be without three key offensive starters. Center Jason Kelce is out for the season, left tackle King Dunlap is out and wide receiver Jeremy Maclin isn't expected to play.

The Eagles catch a break in that Kevin Kolb will be starting at quarterback for the Cardinals. The Eagles are familiar with their former teammate and know all about his many weaknesses. The Cardinals have yet to exceed 23 points during their last 11 games. Not only do the Cardinals have one of the worst starting quarterbacks, but they also have a terrible offensive line and below average ground attack.

The Bengals are a playoff-tested team that has superior receivers to Washington and a defense that has placed in the top 10 during two of the last three seasons.

This will be the toughest defense Robert Griffin III has faced. Griffin was great versus the Saints. He was good last week against the Rams. Look for his play to drop a notch from those performances against the Bengals. This also is the first time Griffin, who played his college ball on artificial turf at Baylor, will be on grass. Both of Griffin's first two NFL games were on carpet inside a dome. He won't be quite as quick and fast on grass.

The Bengals will be able to move the ball on the Redskins. Washington's pass rush took a huge hit last week with season-ending injuries to Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker. In addition, cornerback Josh Wilson suffered a concussion.

Superior defense, superior quarterback and a good situation are all reasons why I like the Jets to defeat the Dolphins by more than a field goal. It's safe to say that before Week 2, the Jets would have been much higher favorites than this.

Miami was perceived as being maybe the worst team in football after being buried by the Texans in Week 1. But because the Dolphins caught the Raiders traveling cross country on a short week with an early start time, they were able to bury Oakland in the second half last week. Now the Dolphins appear much better to the public.

Right now the Raiders could be the worst team in the NFL. The Dolphins, though, aren't much better going with overmatched rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill. He's going to struggle against the Jets, which have a top-seven quality defense especially with Derrelle Revis expected to play after missing last week. The Jets have held the Dolphins to a combined 35 points in their last three meetings.

Mark Sanchez isn't better than many NFL starting quarterbacks, but he's still a level higher than Tannehill. He also has more receiving options, especially with tight end Dustin Keller expected to return to the lineup.

Miami is off a win while the Jets are off a loss and face tough matchups in the next two weeks when they meet San Francisco and Houston.

Stepping in against Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers' speeding train isn't the easiest thing to do. But this is the spot to do it.

This is a flat spot for the 49ers, who have failed to cover the past three times they've been a road favorite. San Francisco opened with an impressive road win against the Packers. They followed that up by beating the Lions at home. So they go from Aaron Rodgers to Matthew Stafford to Christian Ponder. Even the fiery Harbaugh may have trouble getting his team up for this matchup. The 49ers travel to the Big Apple next week to face the Jets in the media center of the country.

But first comes this matchup. San Francisco is making the long journey from the West Coast. The 49ers played in the Sunday night game last week and have an early start time here, which almost always is a negative for a West Coast team playing on East Coast time. This also is the 49ers' first game in a dome stadium after playing on outdoor grass in their first two games.

The Vikings are dangerous at home with one of the loudest indoor stadiums. Jared Allen can disrupt the timing of any offensive line, Ponder is much improved in his second season and Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin are a pair of dangerous playmakers. So the Vikings don't lack for weapons.

The 49ers aren't built for covering large spreads. They are very conservative on offense. Alex Smith is an efficient game-manager. He doesn't attack downfield.

This line is plain too high. Yes, Florida State looked great against Wake Forest, but the Seminoles had basically three weeks to prepare for that game after tuneup matches against hopelessly out-matched FCS opponents, Murray State and Savannah State.

Clemson defeated Florida State, 35-30, at home last season. The Tigers' offense is just as strong this season, especially with Sammy Watkins back from suspension. I give the Tigers an edge at the skill positions over the Seminoles with Watkins and running back Andre Ellington.

Clemson has covered in six of its last seven meetings against Florida State, winning five of the games straight-up. The Tigers also are 10-4 the past 14 times they've been a road 'dog. There hasn't been a line this high in this series since 2004 and it's not justified this year. The most any team has laid during the past eight years is 8 1/2 points. There isn't a touchdown difference between these two schools.

The combination of Akron being much improved - yet under the radar of the oddsmaker - and Tennessee in a bad scheduling spot makes the Zips a strong play in this matchup.

Akron is much better coached under former Auburn coach Terry Bowden, who certainly knows Tennessee from his SEC days. The Zips also have a very good quarterback in senior Dalton Williams, who ranks fourth in the country in passing yards and rates No. 2 in the country in touchdown passes.

Sparked by Williams, Akron is averaging 39.3 points this season in three games. The Zips haven't played weak defenses either having gone against UCF and Florida International.

Bowden rates a coaching edge on Derek Dooley, who has a losing record at Tennessee. This also is a huge flat spot for the Volunteers after they just faced arch-rival Florida and have a double-revenge game up next at Georgia against the Bulldogs.

Akron was just 1-11 during the past two seasons. But the Zips are highly improved this season with a dangerous quarterack. They now, under Bowden, can take advantage of this huge Tennessee flat spot and easily cover this number against the Volunteers.

Cam Newton and Auburn's undefeated national championship team of 2010 seem like a distant memory. The Tigers are off to a slow start. The problem is they aren't that good. But I see the motivated Tigers hanging in enough to cover a three-touchdown home spread at home.

The preseason line on this matchup was LSU minus 6 1/2. Even though LSU has looked outstanding and Auburn terrible, it doesn't justify such a huge line swing.

LSU traditionally struggles at Auburn losing in five of its last six visits to Jordan-Hare. This is the Tigers' first road trip and first road start for quarterback Zach Mettenberger. It has been a short and distracting week of practice for LSU. The Tigers weren't able to practice on Monday because of a bomb threat that caused a campus evacuation.

While Kiehl Frazier has been disappointing at quarterback so far, Auburn has a strong running attack with three backs averaging five yards or more per carry headed by Onterio McCalebb. Auburn will be able to keep the chains moving, which staying within this large number.

I consider Denver improved with Peyton Manning replacing Tim Tebow behind center. But I don't consider the Broncos to be a heavyweight yet. It's going to take a heavyweight to beat the Falcons in the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta has won 26 of 32 games at home since Mike Smith became head coach. Matt Ryan is 26-4 inside Georgia Dome. This may be Smith's best team yet.

The Broncos haven't won a road game against a team that went to the playoffs in the same season since 2009.

I'd take Ryan at home over Manning right now. This is just Manning's second game in more than a year. He looked good against the Steelers at home last week, but there is rust.

I also would take Atlanta's wideouts, Julio Jones and Roddy White, over any of Denver's wide receivers. Jones may be the second best wide receiver in football next to Calvin Johnson. I also like the Falcons' tight end Tony Gonzalez against anything Denver offers.

The Falcons have the weapons to successfully spread out the field. The Broncos still have to pay lip service to bullish Michael Turner in the backfield.

Atlanta also has a less publicized ace in the hole in Mike Nolan. Not only is he one of the more respected defensive coordinators in the game, but he also was the Broncos' defensive coordinator so he knows Denver's protection schemes. The Broncos still run some of those same schemes from when Nolan was there.

I don't put much stock in the Jets putting up 48 points against the Bills in Week 1. New York's offense isn't as bad as it looked during preseason when it scored just one touchdown while the team went 0-4 SU and ATS. But it's not nearly as good as it looked against Buffalo either.

The Jets put up defensive and special teams touchdowns while their offense faced little resistant from a Bills defense that didn't rush the passer well or defend against the pass.

This matchup is going to be quite different for the Jets facing an angry Steeler team that lost on national television this past Sunday night. The Steelers ranked first in pass defense last season and will have free safety Ryan Clark back and possibly star linebacker James Harrison.

The Steelers have covered each of the last eight times they've lost a game. If they need any extra motivation, all they have to do is look across the field and spot Tim Tebow, who ended their season in 2011 with a long touchdown pass in overtime.

Mark Sanchez is a below average quarterback and he lacks consistent reliable targets. Tight end Dustin Keller is out and Santonio Holmes has gone 26 straight games without reaching 100 receiving yards. The Steelers won't let their ex-teammate do anything to beat them.

The Jets' defense is far more respectable than their offense, but will be missing star cornerback Darrelle Revis. This is a huge plus for Ben Roethlisberger and a Pittsburgh offense that has become more pass-heavy under new offensive coordinator Todd Haley.

The Colts are at least a field goal better than the Vikings at home. Even though Adrian Peterson scored two touchdowns in a surprising Week 1 performance, I'm not convinced he's 100 percent healthy yet.

I like the Colts' passing game with Andrew Luck much more than the Vikings' feeble passing attack. Reggie Wayne still has something left in the tank and this week the Colts could get back their best receiver, Austin Collie.

Indianapolis going to surprise people this season. Chuck Pagano has a solid defensive mind and has good building blocks with cornerbacks Jerraud Powers and Vontae Davis. Robert Mathis still is a supreme pass rusher no matter where he lines up on the field.

Luck was overshadowed by Robert Griffin III this past Sunday, but make no mistake Luck is an elite talent. Look for him to make his mark against a feeble Vikings secondary that actually made Blaine Gabbert look respectable.

The Chiefs' defense is much better than it looked opening week when they were down several injured defensive players and minus suspended Tamba Hali, their best pass rusher. They will be in much better shape this week as Hali returns from his suspension.

The Chiefs have far more talent than Buffalo. They have six No. 1 draft picks on defense and Jamaal Charles on offense. Charles is by far the best player on either team's offense. The Bills could be without their most reliable running back, Fred Jackson. He suffered a knee injury in the Bills' loss to the Jets.

Buffalo has been terrible since the second half of last season. The Bills are 1-8 in their last nine games losing six of those games by 16 or more points. This doesn't include a winless preseason either.

The Bills can't keep getting away with starting Ryan Fitzpatrick. He led the NFL in interceptions last season with 23 and already has thrown three this season.

This is a big revenge spot for the Chiefs after the Bills embarrassed them, 41-7, at Arrowhead Stadium in their opener last year. That was the Chiefs' worst opening loss ever.

It' a bonus to get this many points with the Chiefs as they should win this game straight-up. The Chiefs have covered nine of the last 11 times they've been underdogs.

Indiana is bidding to open 3-0. That sounds shocking but the Hooisers have opened against very low-caliber opponents - Indiana State and Massachusetts. Ball State, on the other hand, defeated Eastern Michigan, 37-26, and fell to 12th-ranked Clemson, 52-27.

The difference is competition should prove to be an edge for Ball State, which ranks eighth in the nation in rushing. Ball State ran for 329 yards against Eastern Michigan with Jahwan Edwards running for 200 yards. Ball State ran for 252 yards versus Clemson with Horacito Banks picking up 120 yards on the ground while scoring two touchdowns. Edwards and Banks are running behind one of the most experienced offensive lines in college.

Indiana is giving up 325 yards per game, including 127 per game on the ground. Indiana is without starting quarterback Tre Roberson, out for the season with a leg injury. Cameron Coffman is set to make his first collegiate start replacing him.

The Cardinals are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games. They have covered in seven of their past nine meetings versus Big Ten teams.

Indiana lost 27-20 to Ball State last season at Lucas Oil Stadium despite having better skill position personnel. I see the Hooisers losing once again to the Cardinals.

By upsetting Utah in overtime last week, Utah State tipped its hand. That was a great victory for the Aggies, who had dropped 12 in a row to state-rival Utah. However, it also served notice that Utah State can't be taken lightly.

Utah State won't be sneaking up on anybody, especially the Badgers, when it travels to one of the toughest road venues in the country, Camp Randall Stadium. This is the home of the powerful Wisconsin Badgers of the Big Ten. The Badgers are 40-3 at Camp Randall during the coaching career of Brett Bielema.

This is a supreme road test for the young Aggies. The Badgers have won 17 home games in a row. Their average margin of victory during this span is by 33.5 points. The timing couldn't be worse for Utah State. The Aggies are in a prime letdown spot following their emotional victory while the Badgers are fighting mad after losing 10-7 to Oregon State on the road.

The Badgers struggled to win their opener against Northern Iowa and now they've lost to Oregon State. That doesn't sit well in Badgerland. Heads already have started to roll with the first being offensive line coach Mike Markuson getting fired.

Foes have been stacking the line against the Badgers trying to control Montee Ball, who is in the argument for best running back in the country. Danny O'Brien certainly is not Russell Wilson. Opponents couldn't do that against the multi-talented, athletic Wilson last year. But O'Brien is no stiff. He's more than capable.

I see an all-out, intense effort by the Badgers. That will be enough to cover a two-touchdown spread. Utah State hasn't opened 3-0 since 1978. The Badgers are 15-1 in their last 16 games versus the much inferior Western Athletic Conference.

Arizona State faces its first road test. I expect the Sun Devils to flunk. They are 5-16 away from home during the past four seasons.

It's ominous for the Sun Devils that they allowed Illinois, with its pedestrian offense, to rush for 231 yards. Missouri can move the ball on the ground sparked by all-purpose quarterback James Franklin. The Sun Devils have gone against backup quarterbacks in all but two quarters this season. They also haven't seen a quarterback with the passing and running skills of Franklin.

The Tigers were a last-second field goal from knocking off Arizona State in Tempe last season, but ended up losing in overtime.

Missouri has a special teams edge, too, with a solid punter and returner Marcus Murphy, who returned two punts for touchdowns in the Tigers' opener against Southeastern Louisiana. He ranks second nationally in punt-return yardage.

Arizona State hasn't played anybody yet. The Sun Devils have been very fortunate so far. That's going to change in this matchup. The Tigers are overmatched against elite SEC teams, but they should win by a touchdown playing at home against a middle-of-the-road Pac-12 team that has had everything go their way up to this point.

I've been following UNLV football closely for more than 25 years having covered the team as the beat reporter for the Las Vegas Review-Journal newspaper for five seasons.

The Rebels have always been bad during this time and things haven't changed. The Rebels are not in Washington State's class. The line has come down from double-digits, but the early money is wrong.

The Cougars blasted the Rebels, 59-7, last season and they'll beat UNLV by double-digits this season. The Cougars are better coached than in previous seasons with Mike Leach taking over the program.

Leach has excellent receivers headed by Marquess Wilson. Washington State's receivers can put up big numbers against UNLV's inexperienced secondary. The Cougars are likely to start Connor Halliday instead of regular starter Jeff Tuel, who has a knee injury. But that's fine. Halliday and Tuel are very close talent-wise.

The marketplace has made a mistake thinking there's enough of a drop-off between the two quarterbacks.

Bobby Hauck is 4-23 at UNLV. The Rebels lost in three overtimes to Minnesota in their first game, but followed that up with a horrendous 17-14 loss to Northern Arizona, an FCS school that had never beaten an FBS team before.

This isn't the first time Hauck's Rebels suffered such an inglorious loss. They also fell to Southern Utah, another FCS school, last season along with losing to New Mexico.

That loss to Nothern Arizona has killed morale at UNLV and could spell the death knell for Hauck. Don't expect much of a crowd, maybe 10,000, which takes away a lot of the home-field advantage from UNLV.

Get ready to move Joe Flacco into elite status. Flacco is going to be much improved this season as the Ravens are changing their offense to fit his strength going with an up-tempo, no huddle attack. Ray Rice is going to put up good numbers, too. He's ran for 681 yards against the Bengals in eight career games, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and nearly 120 all-purpose yards.

Baltimore's defense is missing its best pass rusher, Terrell Suggs, but still is solid and intimidating at home. The Ravens will be able to take advantage of the Bengals' losing starting offensive linemen Kyle Cook and Travelle Wharton for the season.

I'm not impressed with Cincinnati's offense. Andy Dalton has too many limitations. In his last nine games, he's accounted for just seven touchdowns with 12 turnovers. Aside from A.G. Green, Dalton lacks weapons. The Bengals aren't as strong at running back and wide receiving depth as they were last season. Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis is a plodder whose lone strength is scoring short-yardage touchdowns. He's going to be no help when the Bengals fall behind.

Baltimore usually gets off fast in September under John Harbaugh covering nine of its last 12 September games. The Bengals started off 6-2 last season taking advantage of playing the league's easiest first-half schedule. But when the schedule got tougher they finished 3-6 losing their last two games, 24-16, at home to the Ravens and to the Texans, 31-10, in the playoffs. They failed to defeat a playoff team.